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View Full Version : India -v- Pakistan: has the "fuse" been lit after 40 dead policemen?



davidbfpo
02-16-2019, 10:44 AM
I did spot a BBC headline, but was distracted from reading. So thanks to Shashank Joshi's Twitter (ex-RUSI, now The Economist's defence correspondent) for a reminder how dangerous the situation is.

So what happened? This is a wide-ranging report that starts with:
Over 40 jawans of the paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed (https://thewire.in/security/kashmir-pulwama-crpf-attack-jem) on Thursday when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden SUV into the CRPF convoy on the Srinagar-Jammu highway. In terms of casualties, this was probably the deadliest attack by a terror group against Indian security forces in Kashmir.Pakistan-based JeM took responsibility for the attack in a statement to a local news agency in Kashmir. The group also identified the suicide bomber as a resident of Kashmir’s Pulwama.
Link:https://thewire.in/diplomacy/pulwama-attack-jaish-e-mohammed/amp/?

A reminder of JeM's past:
Jaish-e-Mohammed has carried out a series of terror strikes since then, including one in December 2001, that almost led to war. JeM terrorists attacked India’s Parliament and the Vajpayee government mobilized the Indian army, which led to a nine-month standoff.
Link:https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/02/article/pakistan-terror-group-claims-kashmir-car-bomb/

The BBC has a wide-ranging report, which includes:
Indian media reports said that at about 15:15 local time (09:45 GMT) a car carrying between 300 and 350kg (660-770lb) of explosives struck a convoy of about 70 vehicles that was carrying about 2,500 troops to the Kashmir Valley.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47240660


Needless to say Pakistan denies any involvement, but IMHO must be dismayed at the level of diplomatic support for India.

The main thread for Kashmir is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?17280-Kashmir-a-simmering-sometimes-brutal-small-war/page5

(http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?17280-Kashmir-a-simmering-sometimes-brutal-small-war/page5)

davidbfpo
02-16-2019, 12:22 PM
Not to overlook the Iranian accusations that Baluch separatist insurgents (Jaish ul-Adl) are blamed for:
Iran has warned Saudi Arabia and the UAE and pressed Pakistan for action over Wednesday’s bombing that killed 27 Revolutionary Guards and wounded 13. An assailant drove an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying the troops in Sistan-Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, near the Pakistan border.
Link:https://eaworldview.com/2019/02/iran-daily-tehran-warns-saudi-presses-pakistan-bombing-revolutionary-guards/

Just to make matters complicated KSA's King and Crown Prince are currently visiting Pakistan.

Bill Moore
02-16-2019, 08:12 PM
Eventually, the Pakistan government/military is going to pay a severe price for their continued support of terrorist activities. Unfortunately, the Pakistani people have and will continue to pay a high price for the backwardness of their leaders. Of course, rising tensions between two nuclear powers is never a good thing, especially when their strategic cultures are shaped by emotion as much as reason. Are so it appears to me.

Since Pakistan refuses a responsible state, maybe the best option is India and Iran collaborate to take over Pakistani territory, and divide the territory. While unrealistic, such a bold move over time could help stabilize Afghanistan and remove one state sponsor of terrorism from the scene.

davidbfpo
02-17-2019, 10:48 AM
Via Twitter:
Iran & India suffered from two heinous terrorist attacks in the past few days resulted in big casualties. Today in my meeting with Sushma Swaraj the Indian FM, when she had a stopover in Tehran, we agreed on close cooperation to combat terrorism in the region. Enough is enough!
Link to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's Tweet:https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/1096802730881048578

From the BBC the background to the KSA visit to Pakistan:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47255560
(https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/1096802730881048578)

davidbfpo
02-19-2019, 01:34 PM
Spotted via Twitter an open access article in 'International Security' which is relevant, particularly as the author contends India's NFU policy could be undermined. The actual title: India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine and Capabilities. Link:https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec_a_0034 (https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec_a_00340)

davidbfpo
02-20-2019, 04:06 PM
Hat tip to WoTR for this overview, with plenty of links. Did JeM act without a "guiding hand" or the absence of restraint?
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/drivers-decisions-dilemmas-understanding-the-kashmir-crisis-and-its-implications/

Bill Moore
02-20-2019, 09:13 PM
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-kashmir-terrorist-attack-could-start-major-war-45017

This Is How the Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War

The author lists a number reasons this particular attack could escalate, ranging from President Trump's reliance on Pakistan to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban and the upcoming elections in India combined with public anger in India demanding a response. The author thinks Pakistan is relying too much on its nuclear deterrent.


What makes the situation very dangerous is that while both countries are nuclear powers, there is a marked imbalance in their conventional military capacity that is tilted in India’s favor. This is the major reason why Pakistan has refused to subscribe to the “no first use” nuclear doctrine thus introducing great uncertainty into the India-Pakistan conflict. Furthermore, unlike in India, nuclear weapons and delivery systems in Pakistan are under the control of the military top brass and the civilian government does not have any say on when and how they will be used.

This projected action-reaction dynamic can easily graduate to the nuclear level if Pakistan decides to take recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, which it has stockpiled, if it finds itself unable to withstand India’s conventional power. Once this happens, it is difficult to predict where the escalatory process will end.

One would hope that rational leaders would avoid escalating to nuclear war, but then again I have seen a lot of irrational decision making in S. Asia based more on emotion than reason. If it does escalate, we have to own our role in this situation, because we provided some degree of protection to Pakistan since 9/11 to facilitate our forever war in Afghanistan. Once again we were blinded by the tactical picture, so we couldn't see the strategic picture.

davidbfpo
02-26-2019, 10:43 AM
An Indian news website report and note Shashank Joshi, of The Economist tweeted:
So an airstrike not just in Pakistan-administered Kashmir but in undisputed Pakistani territory. A significant escalation

Link:https://www.firstpost.com/india/surgical-strike-on-pakistan-exact-target-of-iaf-operation-identified-as-jaba-top-air-force-carried-out-several-hits-around-site-6154391.html

Well India claims to have struck a JeM training base, which Pakistan denies:
A top Indian minister said strikes targeted a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group in Balakot. Pakistan said the strikes hit an empty area but vowed to respond.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-4736671 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47366718)

davidbfpo
02-26-2019, 06:04 PM
Updates via Shashank Joshi's tweets and unconfirmed:
Sources: The weapons used by the Indian Air Force was the Spice 2000, an Israeli smart munition with a range of about 100 kms. Incredible weapon. Is pre-fed imagery of the target which it identifies and then strikes after being dropped from an IAF platform

Another cautionary Tweet:
What we know: 1. The Pakistan army regularly lies through its teeth. (Remember Abbottabad.) 2. Much of the Indian media exaggerates wildly. (Remember nutty demonetization.) 3. Social media mobs in both countries view skepticism as a form of treason.

AdamG
02-26-2019, 06:42 PM
NEW DELHI: India carried out pre-dawn air strikes on terror training camps across the Line of Control on Tuesday, two weeks after 40 soldiers were killed in a terror attack in Kashmir's Pulwama. At around 3:30 this morning, 12 Mirage 2000 fighter jets of the Indian Air Force dropped 1,000 kg bombs on terror camps of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-strikes-terrorist-camp-across-line-of-control-say-reports-official-details-awaited-1999291

AdamG
02-27-2019, 10:58 AM
In response to PAF strikes this morning as released by MoFA, IAF crossed LOC. PAF shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani airspace. One of the aircraft fell inside AJ&K while other fell inside IOK. One Indian pilot arrested by troops on ground while two in the area.

10:19 PM - 26 Feb 2019
Official release via Twitter - hattip to ACIG.
https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100641491679150080?fbclid=IwAR3KmicDPKHtH3Rz_JxZR a054duyMdProIlaVxGC8jFPBEuHHsyWA_ob3d8


Claim, reason for downing not confirmed yet


Pakistani F-16 shot down in J-K's Rajouri sector: Officials
India shot down one of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) F-16s that had come close to the Line of Control (LoC) in Nowshera sector. The aircraft fell three kilometres in Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
IANS|Updated: Feb 27, 2019, 03.16 PM IST
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistani-f-16-shot-down-in-j-ks-rajouri-sector-officials/articleshow/68182512.cms?fbclid=IwAR2Bp_LVSBBGS6WVS1oBEBTwiSYj bRzzaPe6iDASqfrj4D3T93ONiNVnJFM

omarali50
03-01-2019, 01:03 AM
We have a couple of podcasts on this topic. The latest is here https://t.co/Vhp9e99Enc

davidbfpo
03-01-2019, 01:43 PM
An open source examination of the India air strike; the title comes from the last paragraph.
Link:https://medium.com/dfrlab/surgical-strike-in-pakistan-a-botched-operation-7f6cda834b24

omarali50
03-03-2019, 09:24 AM
Pakistan and India, the fog of war (https://www.brownpundits.com/2019/03/03/india-and-pakistan-the-fog-of-war/)..
https://www.brownpundits.com/2019/03/03/india-and-pakistan-the-fog-of-war/

AdamG
03-08-2019, 04:14 PM
Pakistan has stopped an Indian submarine from entering its waters, the navy said Tuesday, as tensions continue to run high between the nuclear-armed foes.
The navy later said the submarine was detected on Monday within Pakistan's maritime zone, or 200 nautical mile (370 kilometre) exclusive economic zone, but did not give further details on the location.
It also released what it said was video of the submarine, with the grainy black and white footage showing only what appeared to be a periscope above water.
The timestamp at the beginning of the video clip read 8:35 pm on Monday.

India said its navy remained "deployed as necessary".
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-navy-says-stopped-indian-sub-entering-waters-085429161.html

AdamG
03-08-2019, 04:15 PM
India's MiG-21s, while featuring some key upgrades, still are more than 30 years old. The Pakistani F-16 that the Indians shot down reportedly was a Block 52D model that Islamabad in 2005 ordered from the United States.

"The MiG-21 is in our inventory, why will we not use it?" Indian Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa rhetorically asked reporters when questioned about the aerial disparity.

To be fair, India in the 1990s upgraded its MiG-21s to the "Bison" standard with Western-style avionics, a new radar and radar warning receiver and compatibility with modern weapons. "[It] has got better weapons system, better air-to-air missiles," Dhanoa pointed out.

But the main reason India sent the MiG-21 into battle is that the type is still one of the most numerous in Indian air force service. "We fight with all the aircraft in our inventory," Dhanoa said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-did-india-send-old-030000764.html

AdamG
03-08-2019, 04:18 PM
According to an announcement on Sunday, March 3rd, India will make a quarter of a million new assault rifles for the Indian army. India’s president Narendra Modi opened the new Kalashnikov plant in partnership with Russian.

India is also expected to sign a lease for a Russian nuclear attack submarine this week. The $3 billion deal will see India take control of a fully-customized nuclear vessel.

Tensions between India and Pakistan have simmered down since last month’s airstrikes. However, India is ramping up its arsenal. Is this a sign of defense or aggression towards Pakistan?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/india-readies-750-000-russian-123219108.html

davidbfpo
03-08-2019, 07:17 PM
Cited in part:
Pakistan has stopped an Indian submarine from entering its waters, the navy said Tuesday.....The navy later said the submarine was detected on Monday within Pakistan's maritime zone, or 200 nautical mile (370 kilometre) exclusive economic zone..

Except in international law the EEZ is NOT territorial waters; depending on a national decision territorial waters can extend up to twelve miles.