The Homegrown Threat

[SWJED]

9 May NY Times - 6 Men Arrested in a Plot Against Ft. Dix (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/09/us/09plot.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin) by David Kocieniewski.

Six Muslim men from New Jersey and Philadelphia were charged Tuesday with plotting to attack Fort Dix with automatic weapons and possibly even rocket-propelled grenades, vowing in taped conversations “to kill as many soldiers as possible,” federal authorities said.

The arrests came after a 15-month investigation during which the F.B.I. and two informers who had infiltrated the group taped them training with automatic weapons in rural Pennsylvania, conducting surveillance of military bases in the Northeast, watching videos of Osama bin Laden and the 9/11 hijackers and trying to buy AK-47 assault rifles.

The authorities described the suspects as Islamic extremists and said they represented the newest breed of threat: loosely organized domestic militants unconnected to — but inspired by — Al Qaeda or other international terror groups...

[SWJED]

9 May Washington Times - Plot Illustrates Balkans' Role as Islamist Foothold (http://www.washtimes.com/national/20070508-110153-5728r.htm) by Bill Gertz.

The six foreign-born Muslims accused of planning a shooting attack at the U.S. military base included four ethnic Albanians, and U.S. officials say their arrests highlight how Islamist groups are using the Balkans region to help in recruiting and financing terrorism.

Prosecutors described the men as "radical Islamists," with four coming from the province of Kosovo in the former Yugoslavia, where the ethnic Albanian population of Muslims fought one of the several wars that grew out of the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Suspect Agron Abdullahu, who faces only weapons violations in the case, was described in court papers as a "sniper in Kosovo."...

[goesh]

sounds like displaced KLA members to me but then jihadism cuts across all borders and nationalities

[Uboat509]

I doubt that these guys were al Qeda for the simple fact that I just don't think that AQ would try to make their next big attack against the US be a National Guard/Reserve post in New Jersey.

SFC W

[SWJED]

3 July Washington Post - Attempts Seen As Model for New Attacks On U.S. Soil (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/02/AR2007070201943.html?hpid=topnews) by Karen DeYoung.

The next terrorist assault on the United States is likely to come through relatively unsophisticated, near-simultaneous attacks -- similar to those attempted in Britain over the weekend -- designed more to provoke widespread fear and panic than to cause major losses of life, U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials believe.

Such attacks require minimal expertise and training and are difficult to prevent. Although British investigators have not claimed al-Qaeda involvement in the latest incidents, officials here said they may constitute a "hybrid" phenomenon, in which al-Qaeda inspires and guides local groups from afar but establishes no visible operational or logistical links.

"What is a direct link?" asked one counterterrorism official. "Is it couriers? Messengers?" U.S. officials "from very senior folks" on down, he said, are watching as the British work to reconstruct the attacks and trace their origin...

[SteveMetz]

3 July Washington Post - Attempts Seen As Model for New Attacks On U.S. Soil (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/02/AR2007070201943.html?hpid=topnews) by Karen DeYoung.

It certainly bears watching but if this slate of buffoons in UK is any indication, we're dealing with the terrorism "D" team at this point.

What leaves me eternally perplexed is exactly what those guys are thinking. I'd love to talk to them and say, "Please connect the dots between murdering people on the streets and the conversion of the English to Islam and the adoption of sharia law." Do they really think millions of English are going to say, "Yowzee--a religion whose adherents murder women and children. Sign me up for that!"?

[Graycap]

Do they really think millions of English are going to say, "Yowzee--a religion whose adherents murder women and children. Sign me up for that!"?

I don't think so. I think that they only want the Great Britain State to over-react in front of a choice: security vs normality. Do you want business as usual? No problem you will have all the bombs you can think of. Do you want security? Goodbye swinging London and multiculturalism.

Whatever choice you make the risk to have a social breakdown is real. After that to impose sharia law at islamic minority will be easy once it will be equal to say social security. And when we will have a portion of a western state run by sharia we will know that war will be on our soil.

Just my two cents..

Graycap

[Jedburgh]

It certainly bears watching but if this slate of buffoons in UK is any indication, we're dealing with the terrorism "D" team at this point....
I second Steve's comment; relatively unsophisticated is an overstatement regarding these clowns. But that observation is offset by the point made in this 3 Jul 07 article in The Economist:

Britain under threat: Even failed attacks may promote terrorists’ interests. (http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9429130&top_story=1)
....Attempted bombings like these recent ones may not be carried out by the most effective al-Qaeda operatives, but even failed strikes take up a huge quantity of time from intelligence officers and police, potentially distracting them from other planned attacks. In Britain MI5 is expanding substantially, from 1,800 staff in 2001 to a projected 3,500 in 2008. But growth takes time, as does the training of new officers and the recruiting of informers. Meanwhile the number of suspected terrorist networks is growing exponentially, roughly doubling every year since the invasion of Iraq in 2003....

[CPT Holzbach]

The English will overcome this just fine. They handled many years of IRA terrorism, shootings, and bombs. The real question is will we be smart enough to learn from them?

Tomorrow Ill be calling for people to tar and feather the hated English overlords. But for today, I say let's study what they do about these attacks and learn something.

[Abu Buckwheat]

It certainly bears watching but if this slate of buffoons in UK is any indication, we're dealing with the terrorism "D" team at this point.

What leaves me eternally perplexed is exactly what those guys are thinking. I'd love to talk to them and say, "Please connect the dots between murdering people on the streets and the conversion of the English to Islam and the adoption of sharia law." Do they really think millions of English are going to say, "Yowzee--a religion whose adherents murder women and children. Sign me up for that!"?

Oh I really second this great post! This was horribly amateurish! I pray to god that AQ inspired terroristskeep up this level of incompetence ... however we should be cautious that mistakes are always learned by others and corrected. Still this was not much of a threat but they exposed themselves and now they will pay the price.

[Old Eagle]

Frankly, I'm surprised we haven't seen more of this type of attack.

1. Amateurs are sometimes successful. Please don't write them off out of hand.

2. AQ has varying levels of influence on operations:
-- Those that are centrally planned by the A team
-- Those that are "nominated" from the field and then get support ($$, planning assistance, etc) from higher up
-- And those carried out by copycat/wannabes

3. We win by good police work and rule of law, even in the intelligence work that goes into prevention. It appears (obvious to me) that NSY/MI5 were onto some of this plot, but couldn't wrap it up before hand as they have some of the other recent attempts. If we sacrifice our freedoms and way of life in the name of security, the bad guys win.

4. The good news is that both the US and UK have decent LE and judicial systems. Both societies are very resilient.

[Merv Benson]

I think it is a reflection of the lack of depth at the operational level. The guy who originally thought up the idea of limo bombs using propane cannisters was already in jail in the UK.

I am sure the deficiencies in the plan were also compounded by the arrogance of doctors who think that because they are smart in medicine they are smart in other "operations." An interview with one of the professors of the "brilliant" neurosurgeon leader of the group discloses earlier manifestations of hubris. This led to many errors that just kept compounding.

I would also point out that unlike the Iran-Hezballah operation in Karbala, these guys got no practice time with training to see if their device would even explode. At this point the Shia terrorist appear to be much more "professional." However, even their operations in Iraq are suffering from the roll up of "secret cells." BTW, anyone know how the Iranian-Hezballah cells came to be called "secret cells?" I thought all terrorist cells were supposed to be secret.

[Stevely]

Frankly, I'm surprised we haven't seen more of this type of attack.

1. Amateurs are sometimes successful. Please don't write them off out of hand.


And success breeds imitators, and maybe even studied failure does too. They may have been "clowns" but I think the number is 7 now of the 12 in custody are medical doctors, so they are not stupid people by any means, just inexperienced. With the internet and other modern communications tools, the enemy is going to have his own "lessons learned" capability, and the quality of advice available to amateurs like these will only get better. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to create a lot of mayhem, and thus it is very disturbing to see MDs involved in this business. We may not be so lucky the next time. It's disturbing to see the enemy's ideology attracting people who really ought to know better, and I think it is a sign of worse to come.

[120mm]

I am sure the deficiencies in the plan were also compounded by the arrogance of doctors who think that because they are smart in medicine they are smart in other "operations." An interview with one of the professors of the "brilliant" neurosurgeon leader of the group discloses earlier manifestations of hubris. This led to many errors that just kept compounding.

In my other life, I play a mild-mannered airplane mechanic. With as many doctors I count as customers, you have no idea how fricking funny (and true) this is.

[SWJED]

NYPD Intelligence Division: The Homegrown Threat (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/nypd-intelligence-division-the-1/) - SWJ Blog.

Recently released report from the New York Police Department’s Intelligence Division - Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat (http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/pdf/dcpi/NYPD_Report-Radicalization_in_the_West.pdf) by Mitchell D. Silber and Arvin Bhatt.

Preface

If the post-September 11th world has taught us anything, it is that the tools for conducting serious terrorist attacks are becoming easier to acquire. Therefore intention becomes an increasingly important factor in the formation of terrorist cells. This study is an attempt to look at how that intention forms, hardens and leads to an attack or attempted attack using real world case studies.

While the threat from overseas remains, many of the terrorist attacks or thwarted plots against cities in Europe, Canada, Australia and the United States have been conceptualized and planned by local residents/citizens who sought to attack their country of residence. The majority of these individuals began as “unremarkable” -they had “unremarkable” jobs, had lived “unremarkable” lives and had little, if any criminal history. The recently thwarted plot by homegrown jihadists, in May 2007, against Fort Dix in New Jersey, only underscores the seriousness of this emerging threat.

Understanding this trend and the radicalization process in the West that drives “unremarkable” people to become terrorists is vital for developing effective counter-strategies. This realization has special importance for the NYPD and the City of New York. As one of the country’s iconic symbols and the target of numerous terrorist plots since the 1990’s, New York City continues to be the one of the top targets of terrorists worldwide. Consequently, the NYPD places a priority on understanding what drives and defines the radicalization process.

The aim of this report is to assist policymakers and law enforcement officials, both in Washington and throughout the country, by providing a thorough understanding of the kind of threat we face domestically. It also seeks to contribute to the debate among intelligence and law enforcement agencies on how best to counter this emerging threat by better understanding what constitutes the radicalization process...

Much more at the blog entry and on the NYPD site (entire report)

[davidbfpo]

The link to this document no longer works (not known why). There are numerous Google links that do work, try:

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/files/NYPD_Report-Radicalization_in_the_West.pdf

I note the document caused considerable comment, mainly in the USA and little to date in the UK. Normally we would see a review from London.

Also found an Islamic critique, which I've yet to read in full:

http://conflictblotter.com/files/SalafiManhaj_NYPD.pdf

Back to the NYPD document, which I read at the weekend. It is a useful reference, especially as it is based on open source and interviews. Worth reading.

davidbfpo

[Ponce]

The key word here is "homegrown"...... anything need fuel in order to grow just like a plant needs soil, sun and water.

A homegrown "terrorist" is nothing more than someone who has decided to do something against the dictators that are at this time running the government.

The American people like to make fun of the "bananas" latin countries for having a revolution all the time...... well, if 26% of the people are against the government and the government do nothing about the situation then there will be a revolution. Here in the US 72-79% of the people are against Bush and yet........ he is stil in power......who is more free?

"Is is the right of the people to declare war on its govenment if they are for the people, after all the people are the real government"... Ponce

[Ron Humphrey]

The key word here is "homegrown"...... anything need fuel in order to grow just like a plant needs soil, sun and water.

A homegrown "terrorist" is nothing more than someone who has decided to do something against the dictators that are at this time running the government.

The American people like to make fun of the "bananas" latin countries for having a revolution all the time...... well, if 26% of the people are against the government and the government do nothing about the situation then there will be a revolution. Here in the US 72-79% of the people are against Bush and yet........ he is stil in power......who is more free?

"Is is the right of the people to declare war on its government if they are for the people, after all the people are the real government"... Ponce

We are because:

1- We the People chose the process through which our President is elected

2- We the people have the ability to partake in the process to elect those who represent us

3- We the people have three branches of government which work in an effort to maintain a balance between the three

4- Those we as elect are as We the people (only human) and thus prone to err from time to time
a- In the case that this happens we refer back to number 2 to attempt
to correct any mistakes


It is easy enough to find something to fight against anywhere you look in this world, it's finding something to fight for which comes at a much greater price but with much greater reward

[JeffC]

The link to this document no longer works (not known why). There are numerous Google links that do work, try:

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/files/NYPD_Report-Radicalization_in_the_West.pdf

I note the document caused considerable comment, mainly in the USA and little to date in the UK. Normally we would see a review from London.

Also found an Islamic critique, which I've yet to read in full:

http://conflictblotter.com/files/SalafiManhaj_NYPD.pdf

Back to the NYPD document, which I read at the weekend. It is a useful reference, especially as it is based on open source and interviews. Worth reading.

davidbfpo

Thanks, David. You've just taken care of my reading for the next few days! :eek:

[Ponce]

Ron? you should know by now that Bush stole the election..... and like he said "The Contitution is nothing but a piece of paper" that in itself voided him as MY president........ my president is by the people and for the people according to the US constitution.

[Ken White]

NYPD Intelligence Division: The Homegrown Threat.

Let's try to stay on topic. I'll also point out that this in not a political weblog; for anyone who wishes to make political commentary, there are plenty of weblogs out there that welcome such comments. Here, we avoid it and try to stick to the subject of threads.

Thanks, Guys.

[Ron Humphrey]

NYPD Intelligence Division: The Homegrown Threat.

Let's try to stay on topic. I'll also point out that this in not a political weblog; for anyone who wishes to make political commentary, there are plenty of weblogs out there that welcome such comments. Here, we avoid it and try to stick to the subject of threads.

Thanks, Guys.

I probably should have just left that one alone:o

Although in my own defense, since my crack team of defense lawyers are on vacation; I did try to make the answer as apolitical as possible:wry:

[bourbon]

Ponce,

I may just happen to share some of your sentiment, I've even mistakenly crossed the apolitical line here in some posts. We both may even agree that the term 'terrorist' is malleable and oft bastardized. That said, I think we can delineate between Guy Fawkes and say; a Mohamed Atta, Mohammad Sidique Khan, or Adam Gadhan. The NYPD article - which is excellent btw - illustrates the 'homegrown threat' as far more than "someone who has decided to do something against the dictators that are at this time running the government."


Thread Related:
The Fort Dix Conspiracy (http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1691609,00.html), By Amanda Ripley. Time, Dec. 06, 2007.

A TIME investigation of the Fort Dix case shows that it is indeed an important prototype. Six years after 9/11, the U.S. government has begun to settle on a strategy for finding and stopping potential homegrown terrorists before they strike. Fort Dix offers a case study of this new and sometimes precarious method. The model is called pre-emptive prosecution, and like other pre-emptive strikes of late, it is risky. It means relying on often unreliable informants to infiltrate insular communities, and it means making arrests before anything close to a terrorist attack actually happens. The process sometimes ends with a trial but not necessarily a conviction, and that may be beside the point. It is, in all, a messy and unsatisfying ordeal, and possibly the best available option.

Decent article on the NYPD's intel division:
The Terrorism Beat: How is the N.Y.P.D. defending the city? (http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/07/25/050725fa_fact2?printable=true), by William Finnegan. The New Yorker, July 25, 2005.

[marden]

The key word here is "homegrown"...... anything need fuel in order to grow just like a plant needs soil, sun and water.

A homegrown "terrorist" is nothing more than someone who has decided to do something against the dictators that are at this time running the government.

The American people like to make fun of the "bananas" latin countries for having a revolution all the time...... well, if 26% of the people are against the government and the government do nothing about the situation then there will be a revolution. Here in the US 72-79% of the people are against Bush and yet........ he is stil in power......who is more free?

"Is is the right of the people to declare war on its govenment if they are for the people, after all the people are the real government"... Ponce

Can you cite the sources for your %'s?

[bourbon]

Can you cite the sources for your %'s?
Marden, Ponce had a brief tenure on the forum and is no longer a member. It would appear that he was basing his “72-79% of the people are against Bush” on job rating polling. Approval ratings for 2007 have been in the high 20’s to mid 30’s. He incorrectly assigned the remained to disapproval. Job approval polling offers three choices: approve, disapprove, and unsure. ‘Unsure’ has ranged between 5-10% for 2007, ‘disapprove’ has fell between 55-65% for most of the year.

pollingreport.com is an excellent website for this stuff btw.

[jkm_101_fso]

All of them may get life in prison. Glad to see some closure to this.

5 Men Are Convicted in Plot on Fort Dix

By PAUL von ZIELBAUER
NY Times
Published: December 22, 2008

A federal jury on Monday convicted five men of conspiracy to kill American soldiers at the Fort Dix military base in New Jersey last year, but acquitted them of attempted murder, according to the Associated Press.

The jury deliberated for six days before returning its verdict against three brothers -- Shain, Eljvir and Dritan Duka -- and two other defendants, Mohamad Shnewer and Serdar Tatar.

The men, all Muslim immigrants who lived in Philadelphia’s southern New Jersey suburbs, face a maximum of life in prison.

Federal prosecutors said that the five men were planning to attack Fort Dix and the military personnel within it, and had taken concrete steps to train and arm themselves. During the men’s trial, prosecutors argued that evidence, including hundreds of secretly taped conversations between the defendants and F.B.I. informants, jihadist propaganda videos recovered from one suspect’s computer, and videotapes of an illegal purchase of several machine guns, showed they intended to carry out an armed assault on the base.

Defense lawyers argued that the men were never serious about attacking Fort Dix, and that the government informants repeatedly coaxed the men into making incendiary comments on government wiretaps.

[jmm99]

(no surprise there) if the judge gives them life; however, basic conspiracy to commit murder is Base Offense Level: 33 (under US Sentencing guidelines, whcih are here (http://www.miami-criminal-lawyer.net/federal-sentencing-guidelines/2006guid/2a1_5.html)).

However, I expect the base level of 33 (2nd degree murder is base level 38, here (http://www.miami-criminal-lawyer.net/federal-sentencing-guidelines/2006guid/2a1_2.html)) could be enhanced. Life is a base level 43, as in 1st degree murder, which you see here (http://www.miami-criminal-lawyer.net/federal-sentencing-guidelines/2006guid/2a1_1.html).

[sgmgrumpy]

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Police spent the day searching the house of a decorated, two-tour Iraq war veteran on Tuesday, one day after he was arrested and charged with making explosive devices and attempting to sell them.

For as little as $100, Jordal was making the same kinds of weapons he saw used against his fellow soldiers in Iraqi and selling them on the streets of Okalahoma City to gang members and known criminals, according to the document.

STORYhttp://www.military.com/news/article/police-say-vet-made-sold-ieds-to-gangs.html

[Bob's World]

It certainly bears watching but if this slate of buffoons in UK is any indication, we're dealing with the terrorism "D" team at this point.

What leaves me eternally perplexed is exactly what those guys are thinking. I'd love to talk to them and say, "Please connect the dots between murdering people on the streets and the conversion of the English to Islam and the adoption of sharia law." Do they really think millions of English are going to say, "Yowzee--a religion whose adherents murder women and children. Sign me up for that!"?

Excelent point; however I think it is more instructive to view the use of islamic based ideologies to motivate Muslim populaces today in a similar light as communist ideologies used to motivate populaces in SEA in the sixties that were striving to throw off colonial governments. Or perhaps more accurately, the protestant christian ideologies that were used to throw off the Catholic governance of the Holy Roman Empire over Europe a few years back.

While religion is at the root of the ideology in two of the cases, in all of the cases the role of ideology is to motivate the populace to support the insurgency, while at the same time taking a position that the counterinsurgent is either unable or unwilling to co-opt or concede.

We get too focused on the message, and lose sight of the purpose and effect. It does not matter if it is an accurate portrayal if Islam, what matters is that it is effective in getting people to join the cause. What we must do is break down the message, and where we can, agree or co-opt the platform as our own. We must then, not attack the message, but instead compete a more effective message in that same marketplace of ideas.

You don't buy Toyotas over Chevys because Toyota runs a major ad campaign attacking Chevy. You buy Toyotas because they build a better product and sell the benefits of buying that product.

So, are we building a better product and if so, are we selling it?

I believe the populace-based ideology crafted by our founding fathers is a piece of timeless genius. I recommend we step back from some current concepts of what America is and go back to our roots, and start selling that.

[120mm]

In the book, "What Muslims Really Want" by the Gallup organization, they show that the great majority of adherants to Islam really, really like the fundamental precepts of America's political system.

So, I think Bob's World has an incredibly salient point, right there.

[Bob's World]

For those interested, I went into greater depth on this in an article posted back in April.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/2008/04/winning-the-ideological-battle.php

[jmm99]

re: SGMGrumpy's post.

This is one that has plagued my imagination since Oklahoma City. So much toothpaste has exited the tube as more and more people are trained in nasty tactics. It stands to reason that some of them will use those tactics in their "real world" lives - and not as part of some AQ- or Hez-linked org.

The havoc raised by two simple operations - anthrax letters and DC snipers - proves that our nation is very over-reactive to these things. The consequential economic and psychological damage far exceeds the immediate damage done by the operations.

I see this as a problem that will continue - and will probably grow. Thanks for giving us a headsup on this incident.

[jmm99]

120mm
In the book, "What Muslims Really Want" by the Gallup organization, they show that the great majority of adherants to Islam really, really like the fundamental precepts of America's political system.

In drawing conclusions from such polls, I believe it is important to analyze them in terms of BW's concept making a distinction between principles and values. Adding some of my words here:

1. Principles (the abstract theories - e.g., all men are created equal).

2. Values (the culmination of valuation processes; that is, the reductions to real world practices of the abstract principles).

I think (having read a few) that these polls tend to ask whether there is agreement with the abstract principle. As an example, UBL, Zawahiri and Maududi would agree that "all men are created equal" - in fact, it is fundamental to their ideology. Where they go with that principle is different from where we go in its valuation process.

The problem is obvious. That "foreign guy" agrees with all of my principles, but then does a 180 in what he does - as compared to what I do - "What a f...ing liar. Can't trust these damn furriners." Etc.

------------------
BW: would like to do a line by line on your April article - not necessarily on a thread. Have to think about that one - also still owe you a PM on Quakers, with some thoughts that have some relevance to this and other topics.

Further PS: Another distinction has to be made between fundamental ideology (which at most evolves) and "tactical manipulation of causes" (which may or may not affect the fundamental ideology) - Galula's take on that I've cited in another thread.

[davidbfpo]

A couple of points having quickly looked through the comments here, after the Fort Dix verdicts. I've also looked at the article cited by Steve Metz, after the London and Glasgow attacks in July 2007: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/02/AR2007070201943.html?hpid=topnews

The article looks rather different after the trial of one bomber (who survived the Glasgow airport attack and found guilty) and a suspected accomplice (found not guilty). There are many articles on the case and one nearly slipped past that one of the bombers had appeared in a Security Service / Police surveillance of suspects and had been excluded as a person worth investigating: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3797943/Car-bomber-Bilal-Abdulla-was-known-to-MI5.html

Behind all the policy announcemets over prevention at home, part of the UK's CT strategy (known as Operation Contest), there is a fine plan largely borrowed from the UK model of intervention with prolific / persistent criminals (often juveniles) and INHO little practical knowledge. I liken this to a desperate search for the right "tools" and the correct "repair" manual. As you may detect I am not convinced a national bureaucratic response is the answer.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating NYT article on the home grown radicalized Somali youth from Minneapolis, who are reported to have left for Somalia and an active part in the violent Jihad: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/us/12somalis.html?_r=4&pagewanted=all

It has all the ingredients of the process - as the NYPD report illustrated.

The FBI are investigating and the community itself has taken some action, e.g. parents hiding children's (US) passports.

davidbfpo