Groups: Bin Laden plans video on 9/11

[Sarajevo071]

Groups: Bin Laden plans video on 9/11
by Lee Keath, Associated Press
Osama bin Laden will release a new video in the coming days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in what would be the first new images of the terror mastermind in nearly three years, al-Qaida's media arm announced Thursday.

Analysts noted that al-Qaida tends to mark the Sept. 11 anniversary with a slew of messages, and the Department of Homeland Security said it had no credible information warning of an imminent threat to the United States.

Still, bin Laden's appearance would be significant. The al-Qaida leader has not appeared in new video footage since October 2004, and he has not put out a new audiotape in more than a year, his longest period without a message.
...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/ap_on_re_mi_ea/bin_laden_video

[goesh]

I believe Binny is dead and twice burned on the Pakisani frontier, i.e. cremated and the remains burned again, by his body guards to forever prevent Western forensics from being able to prove his early demise. He clearly had sepsis from the last known video. However if AQ can cobble togther and cut and paste and copy and put one on the air, it will bolster US resolve to stay the course in Iraq. After all, even the Democrats acknowledge the vicious terrorism being enacted on Iraqi civilians by AQ and common sense mandates that they be killed where found. I do think it will take another 5-7 years before Iraqi forces can take full control of security for their nation, of course that is just a civilian's opinion. It could take 6-8 years.

[Sarajevo071]

Except of the "small" fact that AQ WAS in Afghanistan (only in ONE part while other part belonged to Northern Alliance) and that AQ was NEVER in Iraq (like Bush & Co. lied)... AQ and terrorism, and now we can see HUGE Iranian influence, came in Iraq "thanks" to US.

I believe Democrats did acknowledge the vicious anti-human campaign against Iraq and civilians even decade before this latest war in Iraq, and human cost of sanctions. One should not forget that and ignore effects and feelings of people who lived thru that and lost loves one during that decade.

Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

[Stan]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20629354/) ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one :confused:

[RTK]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20629354/) ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one :confused:

He may have dyed his beard, but did anyone notice he hasn't changed his clothes in 3 years?

[goesh]

That purported picture/video of Binny could darn well be anyone. When I now just saw it the first thing that popped into my mind is an old bum of a neighbor that lives down the road a piece from me. Wrap a turbin on Old Bill, that's what everyone calls him this neighbor down the road and you have Bin Laden. Folks in these parts have said that for several years now but old Bill is a real loner and has a bad reputation and is always packing a shotgun and nobody has felt like telling him that to his face. This isn't very sophisiticated IMO. They've doctored someone up to look like Binny and are trying to pass it off as the real deal.

[pcmfr]

I'm pretty sure the video is authentic. But given that smart people still believe it's not, leads me to question why our own IO guys, or some smart kid with editing software haven't produced videos of UBL eating a pulled pork sandwich in the company of hooter's waitresses, while announcing that he's throwing in the towel on this whole global jihad thing and converting into a Methodist. Joking aside, I am now beginning to believe that the continued sanctuary of AQ senior leadership and their media branch in FATA is much more a problem than we initially belived.

[bourbon]

The transcript of UBL's video is available for download, via MSNBC, in PDF here:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/070907_bin_laden_transcript.pdf

[slapout9]

Posted by Sarajevo:
Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. We need to be figuring out what the message is? Is he sending signals to strike while General Patraeous(cain't spell,sorry General) is giving his briefing? Is it something else? Is it just propaganda? The answers to those questions are what is important for us to figure out.

PS my gut tells me he is alive!

[Sarajevo071]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

[Tacitus]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

[Sarajevo071]

Bush Jr. said he is not concern with him anymore. Remember?

[Uboat509]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

[Tacitus]

Oh, I understand the point that it is more than Bin Laden, the man, that is the problem. I can grasp this logic. It is the ideology he articulates that is the problem. Specifically, it is the Wahhabism branch of Sunni Islam that is arguably the ultimate source. This Wahhabism which is spreading to Muslim lands draws financial support, ideology and even recruits from its entrenched heartland in ....Mesopotamia, of course. Well, actually no, it comes out of Saudi Arabia.

Call me crazy or a dreamer, but the man is responsible for the deaths of around 3,000 American citizens and billions of dollars of damage. To me, at least, he matters a little bit more than the deputy commander of Al Qaeda in Ramadi or Baquba.

FDR requested Sec. of the Navy Knox "to get Yamamoto." The U.S. navy seemed to take the attack on Pearl Harbor personal, and killed the author of it. Anyone interested in how we dealt with this man can read all about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_Yamamoto#Death

[Ken White]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

that comes from the fact that he does seem to be wearing the samw clothes for weeks on end. Not to mention that it is to thier advantage for him to be "alive.' ours, too to a lesser extent. Big Martyrs attract more little martyrs.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

You'd probably be right but you'd also know tha if he goes, Zawahiri who's the real driving force would take charge. If Zawahiri is killed, then someone else will and so on, ad infinitum. Thus better to preserve the fiction and leave him alone.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

Hunh. Interesting. I used to hang out around Bristol -- well, Kingsport, actually -- many years ago and the folks up there must've changed in the last forty years. Most of them then would have more concerned with vengnance than justice.

Be that as it may, where would you "bring him to justice" and on what charge? A few guys come to him with an idea, he helps them get money to do what they wanted to do. He said a lot of stuff on videos and tape which may or may not be admissable but which in any event are just words. you might get a Conspiracy charge, little more, I suspect.

[Rex Brynen]

..and there, I thought OBL was attending the APEC summit (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/09/06/1188783415499.html)....

[slapout9]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

[Tacitus]

I don't know his taylor or valet. I don't know why he favors a particular suit (or whatever they call this kind of garb). A trademark? A uniform? Maybe he just thinks he looks good in it. Why was Abe Lincoln always walking around in a black coat and top hat? What's up with that?

But I'll take it all back if y'all are offended. Assuming he's alive... YAWN. Big deal. He's just a cog in a wheel.

Actuallly, I don't want to bring him to justice. It was the President who said it was either bring him to justice, or justice to him.

It was in "Breaker Morant", a good flick for anybody out there who hasn't seen it, where Morant said "I believe it is customary in war to kill as many of the enemy as possible." I guess that pretty much sums up how me, and folks in Bristol/Kingsport/Johnson City feel about Bin Laden. They definitely want to "bring justice to him."

[Ken White]

The clothing bit was directed at the fact that they've used the same pictures of him in at least two of the last three videos (haven't seen this one yet).

Can't speak for anyone else but I'm not offended -- why would I be. He's more than a cog in a wheel but he is not irreplaceable, no one is. He does have symbolic value and we don't need a martyr. The more important point is that AQ is not a heirarchial organization, it's amorphous -- the old starfish; cut a ray off and it just generates another to replace it. His death or departure wouldn't make much difference to the organization other than symbolically.

Still there is that symbology. His continued breathing is really in both our interests. Even if it isn't satisfying.

Presidents say a lot of dumb things; if they didn't, we wouldn't be able to say "What the President really meant was..." :)

And I'm glad to hear the Tri-Cities area hasn't changed that much; Good for them. Bring justice to him is one thing; bringing him to justice would likely pose more problems than it would solve. Now, if he isn't dead and we can just find him. He's as hard to locate as Eric Rudolph was...

[goesh]

He looks like a doctored sock puppet, his mystique fading like that of Che, yet never fully gone, slowly succumbing to a superior system of economics, justice, moral values, technology and military might. And yes, even better football. I swear to God, this video prop is my neighbor, Old Bill. I''m driving by his place later to see if there are any lights on. What's the wager on how long the prop's words lingered in the few, average, working Americans that tuned in? He should have maybe cursed Mexican truck drivers or gay rights activists or abortion clinics or the slump in the housing market or the Minn. Vikings and gleaned a couple more seconds of collective American attention.

[Sarajevo071]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

Hm. I was referring on this:

Q But don't you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won't truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don't know where he is. I -- I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban.

But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became -- we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his al Qaeda killers anymore. And if we -- excuse me for a minute -- and if we find a training camp, we'll take care of it. Either we will or our friends will. That's one of the things -- part of the new phase that's becoming apparent to the American people is that we're working closely with other governments to deny sanctuary, or training, or a place to hide, or a place to raise money.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/03/20020313-8.html

[Sarajevo071]

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

I think it is a great PR speech (how do you guys call that, IO?) and fact that he is calling Americans to the Islam (second time) can be significant. Or doesn't' need to be.

[Sarajevo071]

He's more than a cog in a wheel but he is not irreplaceable, no one is. He does have symbolic value and we don't need a martyr. The more important point is that AQ is not a heirarchial organization, it's amorphous -- the old starfish; cut a ray off and it just generates another to replace it. His death or departure wouldn't make much difference to the organization other than symbolically.

Still there is that symbology. His continued breathing is really in both our interests. Even if it isn't satisfying.

Presidents say a lot of dumb things; if they didn't, we wouldn't be able to say "What the President really meant was..." :)

Killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi didn't bring end to the Iraqi Resistance like many in U.S. military and political circles was predicting.

That was my whole point.

[Sarajevo071]

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Well, in mean time, Sheikh Abu Umar al-Hussaini al-Qurashi al-Baghdadi (Leader of the Islamic State of Iraq for those who are confused with his full name) came out with his own audio message!? :confused: Title: "And If you Cease (to attack), It will be better for you".

[bourbon]

How widely held is UBL-global warming information operation of 2004 theory?
Stealing from the famous George Packer article to summarize it:
Just before the 2004 American elections, Kilcullen was doing intelligence work for the Australian government, sifting through Osama bin Laden's public statements, including transcripts of a video that offered a list of grievances against America: Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, global warming. The last item brought Kilcullen up short. "I thought, Hang on! What kind of jihadist are you?" he recalled. The odd inclusion of environmentalist rhetoric, he said, made clear that "this wasn't a list of genuine grievances. This was an Al Qaeda information strategy." Ron Suskind, in his book "The One Percent Doctrine," claims that analysts at the C.I.A. watched a similar video, released in 2004, and concluded that "bin Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the President's reelection." Bin Laden shrewdly created an implicit association between Al Qaeda and the Democratic Party, for he had come to feel that Bush's strategy in the war on terror was sustaining his own global importance.
(Packer, 12/18/06)

If so, in his latest screed he hits on global warming again. He also points out the flaccid opposition re: Iraq by the Democrats. And possibly endorses (theoretically tainting from the US political discourse) contrarian, non-interventionist thinking:

And among the most capable of those from your own side who speak to you on this topic and on the manufacturing of public opinion is Noam Chomsky, who spoke sober words of advice prior to the war…

And if you would like to get to know some of the reasons for your losing of your war against us, then read the book of Michael Scheuer in this regard.

What gives? Am I reading this right or reading too much into it? Off-track or on target?


------------------
Packer, George, "Knowing The Enemy: Can social scientists redefine the "war on terror"?". The New Yorker, Vol. 82 No. 42. (December 18, 2006)

[RTK]

Killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi didn't bring end to the Iraqi Resistance like many in U.S. military and political circles was predicting.

That was my whole point.

True, but I'd submit his demise was critical to the Anbar Awakening.

[Ken White]

Killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi didn't bring end to the Iraqi Resistance like many in U.S. military and political circles was predicting.

That was my whole point.

to in the excerpt you quoted seems to differ with us...

As for anyone in US military circles predicting anything significant occurring as a result of Zarqawi's death, I missed that. Politicians did do what you say but then, they're politicians. IMO, no one with any sense at all pays much attention to them.

[Sarajevo071]

Politicians did do what you say but then, they're politicians. IMO, no one with any sense at all pays much attention to them.

I agree
:D:D:D!!

[SWJED]

Regardless of what his "untimely but well deserved" death may have contributed to the overall grand scheme of things - it gave me a warm and fuzzy.

[Sarajevo071]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

Bush - Truly not concerned about bin Laden
Added: August 11, 2006
From: BI30

Remember, this is just SIX MONTHS after 9/11. In response to a reporters question, President Bush tells the world that he is "truly not that concerned" with catching the man who murdered 3,000 Americans just six months and two days earlier because "we've marginalized him."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PGmnz5Ow-o



http://www.unspun.us/images/ProtectingAmerica.png

[Tacitus]

Okay, you and I agree and the guy I responded to in the excerpt you quoted seems to differ with us...



Heck, where did I ever write that getting Bin Laden would be the end of our troubles? Scroll back down and I plainly say that this Wahhabi Islam sect (which comes out of Saudi Arabia and not Mesopotomia, I might add) is the spiritual, financial, and ideological home of Al Qaeda. That doesn't mean me and 99% of the American public don't want him out of commission anyway. If you are fighting a war on terror, knocking out high profile terrorists might (just might) have a positive effect on the home front.

It is sort of like the debate over capital punishment. Opponents always say that executing criminals won't stop crime. Perhaps not, but that doesn't mean they don't deserve it. Putting Al Capone behind bars or six feet under wasn't going to end the crime problem in Chicago...doesn't mean it wasn't worth the effort.

Bin Laden is wanted for what he did...NOT necessarily for what getting him may result in. I don't know how to put it any clearer than that. I don't think I am anywhere near along in this thinking. The fact that we appear to have no particular interest in him over any other Al Qaeda operative puzzles me. Wasn't 9/11 the reason why we got in this war, anyway?

[Ken White]

I just agreed with Sarajevo that zapping Bin Laden might be satisfying in a sense but that it would accomplish little or nothing.

Agree that most, if not 99% probably do agree with you but would also suggest that any such spike in positive effects on the home front would be fleeting. Also and IMO that benefit would be outweighed by the disadvantages in the martyr effect. Those folks consistently beat us to a pulp in the information arena...

I agree that Bin Laden is wanted by many for what he did and not for what getting him may result in and that you certainly are not alone in thinking that. I suspect that the potential result is the principal reason for not making him an issue and that is seen by many as adequate reason to not worry about him. The interest in all the other AQ folks is simply due to the fact that it is, as I said, an amorphous collection of people any one of whom is capable of setting up an operation and obtaining the funding through the others to pull that operation off. Not to mention that Hezbollah is a far more dangerous entity. AQ is just one of many and it isn't nearly as effective as its very successful propaganda has many believing.

Nah, 9/11 was the reason we went to Afghanistan. Islamist International Terrorism and attempting to modify the attitudes in its birthplace were the reason for Iraq and the greater Long War, GWOT or whatever we're calling it this week. The 9/11 attack just provided a rationale and a window to counter 27 years of Islamist probing attacks and western cheek-turning (by four successive US Presidents from both parties among others) by saying we weren't going to take it anymore.