Brian Hanley
11-05-2007, 01:18 AM
Something I have toyed with from time to time is the thought of an epidemiology type article on mortality and injury statistics in Iraq versus the USA. This caught my attention some time ago when I was looking at the Lancet article that caused so much flap. (I did, by the way, write extensively to both the author of the study and the Lancet, about major deficiencies in that study's methodology. Might try getting that through someday too. But I need more clout developed first.)
I thought I would post this here and see what people might have to say, collect responses. It's not quite an RFI, it's something that you all could comment on and perhaps help make such an article happen.
I'll open it by noting these statistics taken from CDC report. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr55_19.pdf
I've attached a basic graph that shows deaths per 1,000 from all causes by age group. It gives a range from 110 to about 400 per 100,000 for men in the service age range, deaths per 1,000 from all causes. Table 9 shows rates of 32 to 40 per 100,000 for accidental death for ages 17-40.
Up against that, from Iraq's theater of war, 3913 over 5.5 years with a fluctuating number of troops in country. Best average I can come up with is around 120,000. That gives a rough figure of 592 deaths per 100,000 per year from all causes in Iraq. That is somewhere around roughly 250 per 100,000 per year above background. But, in other sources I have seen reference to statistics that show that some ethnic groups and locations in the USA have death rates fo 1000 and up per 100,000 per year.
My general observations are two:
First, that casualty rates for US forces in Iraq are really quite low. Not very far above background. I suggest that this might cast the use of suicide bombers in a different light, because for commanders of troops in the insurgency, suicide bombers have a positive kill ratio when other methods don't.
Second, that for a fair number in the USA, being in Iraq is sight safer than staying home.
The matter of injuries is another matter that should be treated properly since it is a major element.
I'm looking for comments and ideas on sources of data. I imagine that DoD has stats, but may be reticent to give access to them. But it might be interesting to do a study and perhaps a more popular article, and take people through this in detail grounded against the USA.
I thought I would post this here and see what people might have to say, collect responses. It's not quite an RFI, it's something that you all could comment on and perhaps help make such an article happen.
I'll open it by noting these statistics taken from CDC report. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr55_19.pdf
I've attached a basic graph that shows deaths per 1,000 from all causes by age group. It gives a range from 110 to about 400 per 100,000 for men in the service age range, deaths per 1,000 from all causes. Table 9 shows rates of 32 to 40 per 100,000 for accidental death for ages 17-40.
Up against that, from Iraq's theater of war, 3913 over 5.5 years with a fluctuating number of troops in country. Best average I can come up with is around 120,000. That gives a rough figure of 592 deaths per 100,000 per year from all causes in Iraq. That is somewhere around roughly 250 per 100,000 per year above background. But, in other sources I have seen reference to statistics that show that some ethnic groups and locations in the USA have death rates fo 1000 and up per 100,000 per year.
My general observations are two:
First, that casualty rates for US forces in Iraq are really quite low. Not very far above background. I suggest that this might cast the use of suicide bombers in a different light, because for commanders of troops in the insurgency, suicide bombers have a positive kill ratio when other methods don't.
Second, that for a fair number in the USA, being in Iraq is sight safer than staying home.
The matter of injuries is another matter that should be treated properly since it is a major element.
I'm looking for comments and ideas on sources of data. I imagine that DoD has stats, but may be reticent to give access to them. But it might be interesting to do a study and perhaps a more popular article, and take people through this in detail grounded against the USA.