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SWJED
12-27-2007, 02:11 PM
CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/12/27/pakistan.sharif/?iref=hpmostpop) - RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has died after a suicide bombing that killed at least 14 of her supporters, ex-government spokesman Tariq Azim Khan and Pakistan's primary television networks said.

Bhutto suffered bullet wounds in the aftermath of the bomb attack, TV networks report.

Video of the scene just moments before the explosion showed Bhutto stepping into a heavily-guarded vehicle to leave the rally.

Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if her bullet wounds were caused by a shooting or shrapnel from the bomb.

The suicide attack left at least 14 dead and 40 injured, Khan told CNN in a telephone interview.

The attacker is said to have detonated a bomb as he tried to enter the rally where thousands of people gathered to hear Bhutto speak, police said.

MattC86
12-27-2007, 02:55 PM
On CNN, while they were waiting for Amanpour to deploy to Pakistan with her trademarked "sympathy face," they talked to their Pentagon reporter, who said that the Pentagon was minimally staffed this week, but as the flash came in, calls went out and lots of people were on their way back.

I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

It's going to be interesting and frightening to see how the aftermath plays out; particularly if there's a general population demonstration, along the lines of the aftermath of the Rafik Hariri assassination in Lebanon in 2005. My own bet is not, because there is no outside threat (a la Syria in the Hariri case) to galvanize solidarity among the population, but we shall see.

Matt

tequila
12-27-2007, 03:06 PM
I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

jcustis
12-27-2007, 03:12 PM
Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

Steve Blair
12-27-2007, 03:23 PM
either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

Quite agree. Clearly not the development that Pakistan needs at this juncture.

MattC86
12-27-2007, 03:24 PM
Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

Well, in fairness to him, I appropriated his quote to an event that was not quite what he had in mind. I think he meant more along the lines of an assassination of Musharraf or a similar reigning figure, not Bhutto. My fault for misusing his maxim more than him being wrong, I think.

The PPP is already blaming the military and Musharraf for not protecting the rally well enough, according to NPR. I can't imagine they were complicit as an organization, but I certainly am not the expert.

You're right on the big question of what happens to the PPP, I think. My allusion to the Hariri assassination and the galvanization of the population is the big wild card, because then I think you might see the confrontation you were talking about.

But it's too early and I don't know enough to tell. Appreciate the corrections, however.

Matt

SSG Rock
12-27-2007, 04:18 PM
Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

Stan
12-27-2007, 05:25 PM
Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

You're not overreacting; there's too many recent examples to (that we have yet to) learn from. Civil war comes immediately to mind.

yazzington
12-27-2007, 09:48 PM
Protection of Nukes comes to my mind. And according to jihadwatch.org she was shot first then the killer blew himself up to hide evidence.

http://jihadwatch.org/

US SF are suppose to go in and help President Pervez Musharraf. I don't care, just whatever it takes to secure them nukes.

redbullets
12-28-2007, 01:54 PM
I'm clueless when it comes to Pakistani politics, but my closest colleague would qualify as an expert in most people's books. He lived there for many years, and is married to the daughter of the (now deceased) founder of the Pakistani Special Services Group (SSG). Despite what would seem to be privaleged status among the Pakistani security elite, my colleague's family-by-marriage has been active and visible in opposing the extremes of the Musharaf regime.

He and his wife have told me for many years that Bhutto was widely hated in Pakistan, by a majority of the population, because of the visible extent of the corruption that existed under her regime. She easily beat out Sharif when comparing hands in cookie jars. Her husband is still under threat in some quarters for his violent extortion of land from poor land holders. She was warned about the trundling along of her convoy upon return to the country by the security services, and the prevailing view among my colleague and his friends and family is that she viewed those killed as means to an end, simply fodder, especially since so many of them were members of the same security services that warned her about the foolishness of the parade.

Having heard my colleague's views of Bhutto for the past decade, it is interesting to me that there is, and has been so little digging into her misdeads by western media sources. I remember some soft-sell 60 Minutes piece quite a few years ago that made me a believer, until I received several doses of reality from my colleague. I think to a large degree we bamboozled ourselves because Bhutto was a Harvard-educated woman, and the collective US consiousness couldn't quite fathom that she was just another corrupt dictator.

I'm not suggesting any abandonment of realpolitik. Just think its better served by Musharaf, and hopefully this will subside despite the handwringing of our media folks.

Cheers,

tequila
12-28-2007, 02:48 PM
Certainly Bhutto's time in office was always marked by high levels of official corruption, but to call her a widely hated woman in Pakistan would be probably quite overstating the case.

The PPP is the closest thing to a mass political movement in Pakistan, the only really national party with a genuine mass following. Its base is among the rural poor in Sindh and southern Punjab, although it has many followers from most of the ethnic groups and several of its biggest funders are large landowners. Despite her own quite cosmopolitan upbringing, the PPP is least popular among the urban elites and the military officer class, who never forgave Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for his attempt to bring the Army to heel.

To call her a "dictator" as well is quite beyond the reality of the situation - she won elections in both cases and, in marked comparison to her father, was quite deferential to the military and allowed them to set Pakistani foreign and security policy to their liking. Note that this deference was to the enormous detriment of Pakistan, as this era of military dominance of Pakistani foreign policy saw the rise of the Taliban, Lashkar e-Toiba, etc. Islamism in Pakistan has always gotten its biggest boosts when it received institutional backing from the military --- a key thing to remember when we consider just how realistic our realpolitik actually is.

William F. Owen
12-29-2007, 03:38 AM
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12282007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/the_bhutto_assassination__not_what_she_s_912265.ht m

Spending a good amount of my professional time talking to mid and high level Pak Army officers I somewhat agree with the insights contained her.

Adam L
12-29-2007, 04:54 AM
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12282007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/the_bhutto_assassination__not_what_she_s_912265.ht m

Spending a good amount of my professional time talking to mid and high level Pak Army officers I somewhat agree with the insights contained her.

Thanks for the link.

I'm tired of the coverage of her assassination and this "e-mail" that states she would hold Musharraf responsible if she were to be assassinated. Riding through a crowd while standing out of the sunroof is a good way to get your head blown off!

Adam L

Rex Brynen
12-29-2007, 05:19 AM
I think all of this is true: popular (and among her constituency, populist) politician; deeply tainted by corruption and political irregularities; loathed by a large section of the Pakistani population too. You, however, have the politicians that you have, and there certainly wasn't (and isn't) a more "national" figure on the Pakistani political scene.

Contrary to the Peters article, however, I'm unconvinced that the Musharraf/military regime has done a very good job (at all) of containing the rise of radical Islamist groups--indeed, in many ways it has worsened the problem.

Adam L
12-29-2007, 05:51 AM
Contrary to the Peters article, however, I'm unconvinced that the Musharraf/military regime has done a very good job (at all) of containing the rise of radical Islamist groups--indeed, in many ways it has worsened the problem.

I think he's done a pretty good job of holding that country together. He has to balance that interest with containing the rise of the fanatics. In my opinion the military and economic aid we are giving to India can't be helping him. I'm not saying he's done the best job he could have, but compared to most people we have to deal with internationally he's certainly better than most.

Adam L

redbullets
12-29-2007, 05:06 PM
The Peters' commentary squares with what my colleagues and friends possessed of extensive intimacy with Pakistan have been saying for a number of years before Bhutto's return. But, the general media seems to really love an international tragedy, real or made-up.

Cheers,

davidbfpo
12-29-2007, 06:13 PM
Found on Real Clear Politics website and cut from an article this passage, which is IMHO a good summary:

In the immediate aftermath of the assassination, the most pertinent commentary I read was by David Ignatius of The Washington Post, who had been a friend of Benazir's since they were together writing for the Harvard Crimson in the early 1970s:

"Bhutto's death is a brutal demonstration of the difficulty for outsiders in understanding -- let alone tinkering with -- a country such as Pakistan. The Bush administration attempted a bit of political engineering when it tried to broker an alliance between Musharraf and Bhutto and sought to position her as the country's next prime minister. Yesterday's events were a reminder that global politics is not Prospero's island, where we can conjure up the outcomes we want. In places such as Pakistan, where we can't be sure where events are heading, the wisest course for the United States is the cautious one of trying to identify and protect American interests. Pakistanis will decide how and when their country makes its accommodation with the modern world."

davidbfpo

SWJED
12-29-2007, 09:30 PM
The RCP item was a link to David Ignatius's Washington Post Op-Ed The Legacy of Benazir Bhutto (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/27/AR2007122701479.html). He is a pretty good pundit - even when I do not agree I find things in his pieces to ponder...

Mike in Hilo
12-30-2007, 03:45 AM
Peters frequently does make liberal use of hyperbole, but in this instance, having served in Pak 1989-94, I find myself in total agreement with the article. He could have added tidbits about her government's heavy leaning on Saddam's side in the Gulf War (until the last few days!), husband's involvement in the heroin trade, and the interesting trivium that it was not Gen Zia, but her own father (socialist, secularist!) who introduced Islamic law to Pakistan. Sad comentary on the state of party politics in Pakistan that, nevertheless, Pakistani poor of diverse ethnicities proved as manipulable by her as were her American admirers.

Cheers,
and a Happy New Year to all y'all,
Mike.

Rex Brynen
12-30-2007, 05:17 AM
and the interesting trivium that it was not Gen Zia, but her own father (socialist, secularist!) who introduced Islamic law to Pakistan. .

Not really. Islamic law already had some status in Pakistan, but most of the most severe implementations of it--notably the Enforcement of Hudood Ordinance (1979 (http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/legislation/zia_po_1979/ord7_1979.html))--certainly did take place under Zia ul-Haq.

Mike in Hilo
12-30-2007, 07:33 AM
Yes re Hudood. Nevertheless, the last night you could drink a legal beer in the Pindi Club was during Zulf Bhutto's reign...
Cheers,
Mike.

redbullets
12-31-2007, 01:46 AM
Yes re Hudood. Nevertheless, the last night you could drink a legal beer in the Pindi Club was during Zulf Bhutto's reign...
Cheers,
Mike.

But makes it rather fun to drink the "special tea" in the Chinese restaurants.

Cheers,

tequila
12-31-2007, 09:32 AM
It pays to remember who sponsored Lashkar e-Toiba, Jaish al-Muhammad, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal which even prior to the Lal Masjid incident was "Talibanizing" the NWFP as well as Balochistan, and of course our good friends the Taliban. It certainly was not any of the civilian rulers of Pakistan, whether Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto. It was the Pakistani military who funded, sponsored, recruited, trained, and armed the militant groups which now wage war upon it and their own country.

Uboat509
12-31-2007, 05:41 PM
I have been out surfing political side of the blogesphere and I was amazed to see some of the stuff that has been written about this woman. Over at HuffPo she has all but been canonized. She apparently was a brave martyr who gave her life for freedom, I'm not really sure whose freedom; Bush and Cheney somehow figure prominently in her death though it is unclear how or even why. I had no idea. Has anyone called Rome yet?

SFC W

bourbon
12-31-2007, 09:08 PM
I have been out surfing political side of the blogesphere and I was amazed to see some of the stuff that has been written about this woman. Over at HuffPo she has all but been canonized. She apparently was a brave martyr who gave her life for freedom, I'm not really sure whose freedom; Bush and Cheney somehow figure prominently in her death though it is unclear how or even why. I had no idea. Has anyone called Rome yet?

SFC W

Regardless of what the libs at Huffington Post are saying, I would not view responses to Bhutto's assassination in solely partisan terms here. Liberal interventionists on the left and neoconservatives on the right are hard to distinguish between on this matter. The policies of actively interfering in the workings of other nations for the purpose of imposing democracy - policies promoted by both camps – have a direct connection to the assassination of Ms. Bhutto.

U.S. Brokered Bhutto's Return to Pakistan (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/27/AR2007122701481_pf.html), By Robin Wright and Glenn Kessler. The Washington Post, December 28, 2007.

The turning point to get Musharraf on board was a September trip by Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte to Islamabad. "He basically delivered a message to Musharraf that we would stand by him, but he needed a democratic facade on the government, and we thought Benazir was the right choice for that face," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and National Security Council staff member now at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

"Musharraf still detested her, and he came around reluctantly as he began to recognize this fall that his position was untenable," Riedel said. The Pakistani leader had two choices: Bhutto or former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf had overthrown in a 1999 military coup. "Musharraf took what he thought was the lesser of two evils," Riedel said.

The return of Bhutto may have been more window dressing then substantive, but this window dressing would be necessary to remain congruent with our policies of spreading freedom and democracy.

The Realist persuasion, though less frequently heard from, offers an viable alternative to these policies. Here are two realist perspectives on the Bhutto matter worthreading:

Enough with Democracy! (http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1698607,00.html), By Robert Baer. Time, Dec. 27, 2007.

The common denominator between Pakistan, Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq is an ongoing war, wars without end, wars that poison democracy. The Bush Administration is particularly culpable in creating the chaos in Pakistan because it forced a premature reconciliation between President Musharraf and Bhutto; it forced Musharraf to lift martial law; it showered money on Musharraf to fight a war that was never popular in Pakistan. The Administration could not understand that it can't have both in Pakistan — a democracy and a war on terrorism.

The immediate reaction in the United Sates will be visceral: al-Qaeda killed Bhutto because she was too secular and too close to the United States, an agent of American imperialism. It will be of some comfort that the front lines of terrorism are thousands of miles away; that we are fighting "them" there rather than in lower Manhattan; that there are heroes like Bhutto ready to fight and die for democracy, moderation and rationality.

But this misses the point. The real problem in Pakistan undermining democracy is that it is a deeply divided, artificial country, created by the British for their expediency rather than for the Pakistanis. Independent Pakistan has always been dominated by a strong military. And democracy will only be nurtured when the wars on its border come to an end, whether in Afghanistan or Kashmir, and the need for the military to meddle in politics is removed. And never before.


Bush's best-laid plans: The Bhutto assassination demonstrates anew the folly of the administration's efforts to manage history (http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/latimesE34.html), By Andrew J. Bacevich. The Los Angeles Times, December 30, 2007.

At the beginning of his second term, Bush spoke confidently of the United States sponsoring a global democratic revolution "with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." Ever since that hopeful moment, developments across the greater Middle East -- above all, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and on the West Bank -- have exposed the very real limits of U.S. wisdom and power.

Now the virtual impotence of the U.S. in the face of the crisis enveloping Pakistan -- along with its complicity in creating that crisis -- ought to discredit once and for all any notions of America fixing the world's ills.

Bush dreamed of managing history. It turns out that he cannot even manage Pakistan. Thus does the Author of Liberty mock the pretensions of those who presume to understand his intentions and to interpret his will.

selil
12-31-2007, 11:56 PM
.... Over at HuffPo she has all but been canonized. She apparently was a brave martyr who gave her life for freedom, I'm not really sure whose freedom....


I was on huffington post last week and I was afraid they were going to take away my conservative curmudgeons card.

Jedburgh
01-04-2008, 04:01 PM
The Economist, 3 Jan 08: Pakistan: A Country on the Brink (http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10430324)

....It is Pakistan's particular misfortune that its progress tends to be measured against exaggerated doomsday prophecies. Three are most popular. The first, which is as old as Pakistan itself, decrees that the place will fragment (history is not encouraging: born of partition in 1947, the country lost its eastern component in 1971). The other two are more recent. One is that Pakistan, like neighbouring Iran, will fall to Islamists—perhaps even of Mr Mehsud's vicious kind. A related fear is that terrorists will get hold of the country's nuclear arsenal. All three nightmares are very unlikely in the short term, but may be increasingly possible.

To be clear, Pakistan is bitterly divided. Punjab dominates the economy and the army. In other parts of the country military rule—which Pakistanis have known for over half their history—is considered Punjabi rule. Every decade or so, in Sindh, Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjabi troops are dispatched to quash an insurgency. The army is currently attempting this task in both Baluchistan and NWFP, on several fronts. NWFP has always been so rebellious that no Pakistani government has dared to call it by its logical name, Pushtunistan, for fear of rallying the Pushtun tribesmen who live there. But the army is still quite strong enough to prevent any chunk of Pakistan from splitting off.

The other prophecies are more sobering—given the current security crisis on the Afghan frontier, and a history of institutional Islamism within the army itself. The American-backed campaign in north-western Pakistan has gone badly. It has almost certainly spawned much more radicalism and terror than it has ended. Baker Atyani, head of the al-Arabiya television office in Islamabad, says he receives two or three videotapes every week from local and foreign jihadist groups along the frontier—many more than he can broadcast. Clearly, Pakistan has a long-term problem with militancy. And the prevalence of jihadist sympathies within the army also remains a concern. For whatever reason, many soldiers on the frontier are demoralised: at least several hundred have surrendered to untrained bandits. Nonetheless, despite these concerns, a strong majority of Pakistanis remain moderate.....

davidbfpo
01-04-2008, 05:14 PM
Been off-line for three days and have picked up that Pakistan has accepted an offer from the UK, for the Metropolitan Police to assist the investigation. The Met often get such calls, in terrorism and other cases. One piece of BBC film footage showed the actual scene had been washed clean, with a firehose, which led President Musharraf to comment it was not what he had ordered.

Scene management is one of the standard investigation tactics, which the Met has great experience of - so that is probably lost. Second comes acquiring all possible still & video footage (including un-broadcast) and that will take time. The comes interviewing all possible witnesses, preferably id'd at the time by those attending the scene - unlikely I fear.

The UK has just upgraded the post of a CTLO in Islamabad (Counter-Terrorist Liasion Officer), one hopes his advice has already been given to the Pakistani authorities and he is ex-Met.

From this armchair a very long uphill struggle and then there's the politics!

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
01-13-2008, 08:05 PM
The Sunday Times (London) under the title 'Scotland Yard believes Al-Qaeda assassinated Benazir Bhutto' is an odd story reporting Scotland Yard have provided Pakistan with an initial report on Ms Bhutto's murder:

Link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3177691.ece

I note the Bhutto family and the PPP reject this report and still advocate a UN investigation. Just a little too much "spin" at play here.

davidbfpo

Jedburgh
02-02-2008, 02:25 PM
USIP, 1 Feb 08: A Toxic Cocktail: Pakistan's Growing Instability (http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2008/0201_pakistan.html)

Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, predominantly Muslim nation of 165 million, has experienced a dramatic rise in political turmoil and violence in the last year. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, analysts have raised serious concerns about Pakistan's stability and the possibility of a collapse of the federation.

With elections scheduled for February 18, 2008, amidst political turmoil, a succession of suicide bombings in major cities, and open warfare between state security forces and Islamist militants in the tribal areas, further shocks to the system could ignite broader conflict in Pakistan. The nation must overcome a confluence of serious challenges in the coming months to move back toward stability, including: holding legitimate national elections and restoring democratic rule; confronting the increasing power of militant Islamist groups; and assuaging widespread minority grievances fueling separatist movements.

How many more shocks to the system can Pakistan bear? Does the situation in Pakistan indeed "pose a potential threat to the federation of Pakistan"? What are the dangers of schisms within the military and security forces, and the implications for state integrity and nuclear security? As turmoil continues, is consolidation of militant control over the border areas with Afghanistan inevitable? What is the likely impact on Afghan stability? A group of veteran Pakistan watchers and policymakers gathered at USIP on January 14, 2008, to discuss the potential for worsening conflict in Pakistan, and the prospects for stability. Participants included: General David Barno (Ret.), Lisa Curtis, Christine Fair (http://www.usip.org/specialists/bios/archives/fair.html), Col. John Gill (Ret.), Qamar-ul Huda (http://www.usip.org/specialists/bios/current/huda.html), Minister Ali Jalali, Daniel Markey, Barmak Pazhwak (http://www.usip.org/specialists/bios/current/pazhwak.html), Bruce Riedel, Larry Robinson, Ambassador Howard Schaffer, Col. David Smith, and Marvin Weinbaum. The views presented in this report do not necessarily represent the views of these participants.....

davidbfpo
02-02-2008, 06:01 PM
Tried the link and by going to USIP website - does not work. The links to the authors do. Perhaps too many are reading it?

davidbfpo

Stan
02-07-2008, 02:06 PM
GARHI KHUDA BAKHSH, Pakistan (AFP) (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ikvvyfjeeoThQqVQymMGcZiNeZOg) — Pakistani officials said they arrested two "terrorists" Thursday over the slaying of Benazir Bhutto...



With pressure growing on the government to solve her murder, investigators said they had seized two "very important alleged terrorists" in Rawalpindi on Thursday morning in connection with the attack.

A statement by a Pakistani investigation team probing the attack said it had "arrested two very important alleged terrorists, Hasnain and Rafaqat, this morning from Rawalpindi with the help of Rawalpindi police."

"They are being interrogated," it added.

Both men had "tentacles from the tribal region and Baitullah Mehsud," a senior security official said, referring to an Al-Qaeda-linked militant commander based in the restive border region of South Waziristan.

Last month police arrested a 15-year-old boy who allegedly confessed to being part of a back-up squad of suicide bombers tasked by Mehsud to target Bhutto if the initial attack failed.

Thursday's arrests also coincided with the return to Pakistan of a Scotland Yard team invited by President Pervez Musharraf to help probe Bhutto's murder, although officials said there was no link with the new arrests.

The British detectives are due to present their report on the killing to the Pakistani government on Friday.

Jedburgh
02-08-2008, 01:45 PM
British High Commission Press Release, 8 Feb 08:

Scotland Yard Report Into Assassination of Benazir Bhutto Released (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_02_2008bhuttoreport.pdf)

In his report Dr Cary states:


• “the only tenable cause for the rapidly fatal head injury in this case is that it occurred as the result of impact due to the effects of the bomb-blast.”

• “in my opinion Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto died as a result of a severe head injury sustained as a consequence of the bomb-blast and due to head impact somewhere in the escape hatch of the vehicle.”

Given the severity of the injury to Ms Bhutto’s head, the prospect that she inadvertently hit her head whilst ducking down into the vehicle can be excluded as a reasonable possibility.

High explosives of the type typically used in this sort of device, detonate at a velocity between 6000 and 9000 metres per second. This means that when considering the explosive quantities and distances involved, such an explosion would generate significantly more force than would be necessary to provoke the consequences as occurred in this case......
and:

There has been speculation that two individuals were directly involved in the attack. The suggestion has been that one suspect fired shots, and a second detonated the bomb. All the available evidence points toward the person who fired shots and the person who detonated the explosives being one and the same person.


• Body parts from only one individual remain unidentified. Expert opinion provides strong evidence that they originate from the suicide bomber.

• Analysis of the media footage places the gunman at the rear of the vehicle and looking down immediately before the explosion. The footage does not show the presence of any other potential bomber.

• This footage when considered alongside the findings of the forensic explosive expert, that the bombing suspect was within 1 to 2 metres of the vehicle towards it rear and with no person or other obstruction between him and the vehicle, strongly suggests that the bomber and gunman were at the same position. It is virtually inconceivable that anyone who was where the gunman can clearly be seen on the media footage, could have survived the blast and escaped.

The inevitable conclusion is that there was one attacker in the immediate vicinity of the vehicle in which Ms Bhutto was travelling.

MattC86
02-08-2008, 02:32 PM
Is Bhutto's family and party still clamoring for the UN investigation because they think Musharraf and Co are responsible? I can't imagine that a UN investigation would give them anything Scotland Yard couldn't.

However, in yet more proof that perception really can be more important than reality, the possibility of a Musharraf hand in her death would seem to be a major weapon against the Musharraf government and a potential flashpoint for political conflict unless its finally disproven. I say give 'em the UN investigation.

Matt

davidbfpo
04-16-2010, 09:56 PM
Long awaited and expected by some to have an impact in Pakistan - the report on Ms Bhutto's murder by the UN:
A United Nations investigation into the assassination of the former opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has concluded that the failure of Pakistani authorities to effectively investigate the killing was “deliberate,” saying that the country’s powerful intelligence agency “severely hampered” local authorities.

The 65-page report, issued in New York on Thursday, did not answer the question of who killed Ms. Bhutto, or even give the precise cause of death. It was concerned instead with looking into the facts and circumstances surrounding her death in a suicide bombing and gun attack at a political rally in December 2007.

From:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/world/asia/16bhutto.html

Link to report:http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Pakistan/UN_Bhutto_Report_15April2010.pdf

Might read the UN report and update another day.

davidbfpo
12-23-2010, 10:51 PM
Thanks to FP Blog mailing, which has picked up on a CNN report:
Pakistan arrested two senior police officials Wednesday in connection with the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto..... Aziz was the police chief in the Rawalpindi district at the time of Bhutto's assassination while Shehzad was the head of her security team.

The two have been accused of security breaches, covering up evidence by hosing down the crime scene and failing to conduct a post-mortem examination on Bhutto.

Link:http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/22/pakistan.bhutto.arrests/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_world

Wana88
12-30-2010, 01:07 AM
http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/three-years-after-benazirs-murder-cover.html

davidbfpo
11-06-2011, 12:17 PM
An update on what happened to the investigation:
An anti-terrorism court in Pakistan has charged two senior police officers over the 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. They were charged with security breaches and failure to protect her, prosecutors said.

Five alleged Taliban militants have also been charged with criminal conspiracy over Bhutto's death.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15605565

Fuchs
11-06-2011, 05:49 PM
Maybe - just maybe - the thread title is ripe for a modification due to obsolescence?

davidbfpo
11-28-2012, 12:24 AM
An in-depth article by Owen Bennett-Jones, ex BBC World Service and now at an American university, in 'The London Review of Books':http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n23/owen-bennett-jones/questions-concerning-the-murder-of-benazir-bhutto

It has everything you'd ever want in a straight forward, simple TV crime documentary. No, it does not. Owen draws together a complex, bewildering set of facts, the weirdness - to outsiders - of Pakistani politics, the "dark arts" of power and violence. Plus that favourite device, the revolving door of being in state custody; not to overlook fire hoses. One hell of a read.

His last phrase is an indictment not only of the Pakistani state, its politicians and those who watch with a Nelson eye:
there isn’t the slightest reason to believe that the people who tasked the Taliban with Bhutto’s murder will ever face justice.

No wonder the millions of good people in Pakistan stay silent.

There is a historical thread on Ms Bhutto's murder, for those who need some background reading:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4601

davidbfpo
08-20-2013, 09:32 PM
A new book by the Chilean UN official who headed an investigative commission in Ms Bhutto's death is out. In a Foreign Policy article, based on the book, the author ends with:
...most Pakistani political actors would rather turn the page than continue investigating who was behind her assassination. Probably no government or court of law will be able or willing to fully disentangle the whole truth from that web. It may well be that Bhutto’s assassination will be another unsolved case in the long history of impunity in Pakistan, and that the controversy surrounding her assassination will endure as much as her memory.

Link to article:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139830/heraldo-munoz/getting-away-with-murder?page=show

Now of course there are the headlines 'Musharraf indicted for murder of Benazir Bhutto':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23763895

davidbfpo
12-27-2017, 10:03 AM
Yes today marks the tenth anniversary of her murder and Owen Bennett-Jones, a veteran BBC reporter, for a long time in Pakistan, returns to the story with an excellent explanation IMHO:
Benazir Bhutto was the first woman to lead a Muslim country. The decade since an assassin killed her has revealed more about how Pakistan works than it has about who actually ordered her death.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42409374

davidbfpo
02-25-2018, 07:21 PM
Owen Bennett-Jones has a series of nine podcasts on the murder of Benazir Bhutto and the aftermath. I am listening to 'The other dead', which is No.9, it is 29 minutes long and refers to the deaths of so many who were involved afterwards.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05r6cgx/episodes/downloads

He is an excellent reporter and knows Pakistan very well.