Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

Carl asked:
What will happen when Bob dies? You guys are qualified to speculate and I am interested in what you think not only in Zim but the region. Also as it relates to Zim, what will happen when Mandela dies? (Added in last post). What do you think those thugs will do when Bob dies?

When President Mugabe dies, let us for the purpose of answering say it is tomorrow. The situation will be tense, ZANU-PF and the "barons" will retain power. If required with ruthlessness, which is now traditional and firmly embedded in Zimbabwe. More people will flee or attempt to do so (mainly to South Africa). Faced with the prospect of 'Chaos Country' heading south President Zuma has to decide: remain loyal to a dead man's legacy or apply pressure on the "barons". Others in the region will wait to see what happens. Today few of Zimbabwe's neighbours depend on it for resources, except Zambia for Kariba Dam hydro-electricity. Closing their borders is impractical.

The death of Nelson Mandela will be very different, "spin" aside many will miss him, at home and abroad. Will it affect Zimbabwe? I am sceptical, although it may help Zuma make a decision.

Stretching imagination and hope. The "barons" fail to retain regime loyalty and ZANU-PF collapses. Not exactly GDR or an 'Orange' Revolution - I that the Zimbabwean public will take to the streets in protest. A leader in exile returns and in the chaos takes control.

Ah, the dream is over and 'Bob' is alive.

[Tom Odom]

Carl asked:

When President Mugabe dies, let us for the purpose of answering say it is tomorrow. The situation will be tense, ZANU-PF and the "barons" will retain power. If required with ruthlessness, which is now traditional and firmly embedded in Zimbabwe. More people will flee or attempt to do so (mainly to South Africa). Faced with the prospect of 'Chaos Country' heading south President Zuma has to decide: remain loyal to a dead man's legacy or apply pressure on the "barons". Others in the region will wait to see what happens. Today few of Zimbabwe's neighbours depend on it for resources, except Zambia for Kariba Dam hydro-electricity. Closing their borders is impractical.

The death of Nelson Mandela will be very different, "spin" aside many will miss him, at home and abroad. Will it affect Zimbabwe? I am sceptical, although it may help Zuma make a decision.

Stretching imagination and hope. The "barons" fail to retain regime loyalty and ZANU-PF collapses. Not exactly GDR or an 'Orange' Revolution - I that the Zimbabwean public will take to the streets in protest. A leader in exile returns and in the chaos takes control.

Ah, the dream is over and 'Bob' is alive.

No(t) a bad scenario--the risk is of course that the leader is another Bob (or soon becomes one). But as to taking to the streets, a Romania-style event would be useful--as long as the right folks get stretched :eek:

Unfortunately I believe the barons will have long planned for this transition--choice one being to stay in power and choice two exile in style but only if forced.


Carl, no worries. I had to look up calumny.

Tom

[davidbfpo]

Grim reading as ZANU-PF continues to eject white farmers:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/5504308/the-war-against-the-whites-is-not-over-in-zimbabwe.thtml

Little sign that the coalition with MDC is having any impact in this policy area.

[Tom Odom]

The arrogance of corrupt power knows no limits...


Mugabe says Zimbabwe power-sharing has 'short life,' signals new elections (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/12/12/zimbabwe.mugabe.elections/index.html)

Harare, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe says the fragile power-sharing government in his country "was given a short life" and he intends to reclaim control through new elections.

"Elections are not far off," Mugabe told his Zanu-PF party Saturday. "The inclusive government was given a short life. The remaining part of it is short. In fact it has lived more than half its life."

[Mark O'Neill]

The arrogance of corrupt power knows no limits...
Which is code for "I stuffed up with the election violence last time, this time I will get it (the violence) right.."

God help the poor folk of SW Zimbabwe

[davidbfpo]

This sort of book review arrived on a Zimbabwe email list I am on:


A Roman Catholic human rights activist who denounced the atrocities of white minority rule in the country then called Rhodesia, has charted what he describes as the "descent to tyranny" of Zimbabwe's post-independence ruler Robert Mugabe.

For more than 20 years until 1999, Mike Auret worked for Zimbabwe's Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace, set up by the country's Catholic bishops. In his new book, "From Liberator to Dictator: An Insider's Account of Robert Mugabe's Descent into Tyranny", Auret records how he met Mugabe several times and was captivated by the man's intelligence and apparent sincerity.

"My admiration for him grew with each contact and in the months ahead I found myself putting him on a pedestal - a position from which I found it most difficult to displace him in the years that followed, despite everything that happened," said Auret.

But Auret was shattered when he discovered what happened in the Matabeleland and Midlands regions of Zimbabwe between 1983 and 1987. More than 20 000 men, women and children accused of being "dissidents" were killed to wipe out the power base of Mugabe's main rival in the liberation struggle, Joshua Nkomo. Almost all of those killed were Ndebeles, members of Nkomo's ethic group. They were killed by a North Korean trained branch of the military called the Fifth Brigade. Its members were Shona, who belonged to Mugabe's ethnic group. Zimbabwe's 11.4 million population is divided roughly into two main "tribal" groups, the Shonas (80 percent) and the Ndebeles (nearly 18 percent).

"Part of the reason for writing this book was for me to try to gain some understanding of how so many of us so gravely misconstrued the situation in Zimbabwe once independence had been achieved," writes Auret. "How was it possible that so serious an error of judgement could have been made by so many people, in the world, not only in Zimbabwe?"

The son of white settlers, Auret had a career in Africa that spanned the heyday of white rule in the 1950s to Zimbabwe's political and economic chaos at the beginning of the 21st century. He joined the army in 1956 but resigned after Ian Smith declared Southern Rhodesia's illegal Unilateral Declaration of Independence from Britain in November 1965. Auret joined the CCJP in the 1970s and was active in investigating atrocities committed by the Rhodesian army, an offshoot of the force in which he was once an officer. He left the country in 1979 to avoid being conscripted, and went to Britain with his wife Diana only to return home after independence in 1980, when Rhodesia was renamed Zimbabwe.

In his book, Auret recalls how he was among those who were moved by Mugabe's statements of the need for "reconciliation" after seven years of war from 1972 to 1979 which had led to 30 000 deaths. "Everything he said impressed me tremendously. As he spoke I experienced a growing respect for him, for his intellect and his humanity . I was impressed by his sincerity and by what he seemed to be an obvious respect for the Church," Auret writes. However, "In the second decade, disillusionment began and the drive for development became a drive for democracy and the protection of human rights . I remembered the reasonable man and wondered if he had changed or if indeed he had always been so evil, but simply more adept at hiding it."

Auret resigned as the justice group's director in 1999, when the Catholic Church refused to publish a report drawn up by the commission and the Legal Resources Foundation, a human rights group, into the atrocities committed by the Fifth Brigade in Matabeleland. He was then elected as a member of parliament from Harare for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change party, but left Zimbabwe after he resigned his seat in 2003.

Auret presently lives in Ireland but maintains close contact with Zimbabwean exiles.

Michael Auret: "From Liberator to Dictator: An Insider's Account of Robert Mugabe's Descent into Tyranny", David Philip, Publishers, ISBN-13: 978-0864867315

I shall look out for it in the specialist bookshops and report again in 2010.

[davidbfpo]

http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat211209.htm


SW RADIO AFRICA TRANSCRIPT BROADCAST: 18 DECEMBER 2009 HOT SEAT INTERVIEW: Violet Gonda's guest is Enos Nkala,one of the founders of the Zimbabwe African National Union, with his thoughts on the current political situation. Controversy also surrounds his role in the Gukurahundi massacres that led to the death of 20,000 people in Matabeleland and Midlands in the 1980's, but in this interview the veteran nationalist denies carrying out instructions that led to the killings. He lays the blame squarely on Zanu-PF's president Robert Mugabe and current Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was Ministerof State Security from 1982 to 1988.

It is a quite long interview and only partly read so far.

[Rhodesian]

Any additional comment from self would be somewhat needless:



Since the fast track land seizures commenced in 2000, it has been easy for ZANU (PF) to portray the land invasions as a spontaneous demonstration by landless peasants who needed to take back land originally taken away from them by colonial settlers. It is now apparent and clear that the so-called land reform program has been nothing but a political gimmick that has been used to reward ZANU (PF) supporters and punish anyone perceived as an enemy.
http://www.zimtelegraph.com/?p=5075

I.R.

[davidbfpo]

I'd missed this news that the 'Kariba Draft constitution' was to have a round of public consultation and a vote until an email arrived from a Zimbabwean e-list. For further details see: www.sokwanele.com/zimbabweconstitution

Which cites:
Zimbabweans will be asked to vote on a new draft constitution when it is finally ready. The public outreach programme, intended to gather the views of the people, is scheduled to start early in the new year.

Missing is any date for the vote. Just a reminder a new constitution drafted by ZANU-PF under President Mugabe was rejected in a vote a few years ago, much to his surprise and anger.

No-one I expect in Zimbabwe is under any illusions how the 'public consultation' will go, let alone any future vote.

[davidbfpo]

In a UK House of Commons Q&A session for the Foreign Secretary:
Kate Hoey (Vauxhall) (Lab): Does the Foreign Secretary share my concern that President Zuma of South Africa has not challenged Mugabe and the MDC fully to carry out the terms of the global political agreement? He seems continually to be urging compromise on the MDC.

David Miliband: President Zuma is playing a careful hand, and he is playing it rather skilfully. The Prime Minister was able to discuss Zimbabwe, among other things, with him at the Commonwealth conference in November. President Zuma will be making a state visit to the UK in early March, and I have had discussions with my South African opposite number. The position of the South Africans has certainly been to urge adherence to the global political agreement, which requires compromise on all sides, and I do not think that they have been less than even-handed in the way in which they have done that.

From Hansard 19th January 2010, via a Zimbabwe emailing.

Well that is a relief then - 'even handed'. Ah, diplomacy is wonderful.

[davidbfpo]

This anniversary slipped past my "radar", but Kate Hoey, a Labour MP and chairman of the All Party Zimbabwe Group has written an article 'It's time to cry foul on Mugabe and show him the red card' in the regional newspaper "up t'north", The Yorkshire Post: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/opinion/Kate-Hoey-Its-time-to.6012519.jp

Nothing exceptional, at least she keeps the issue alive.

[davidbfpo]

From a Zimbabwean e-mail citing German Radio last week and an item on a British parliamentary visit to Zimbabwe:
One of the key men to give evidence before the Africa All Party Group was Dennis Norman, who was President of the white-dominated Commercial Farmers Union when zimbabwe declared its independence in April 1980.

English-born Mr Norman was Robert Mugabe's surprise choice as his country's Minister for Agriculture. Norman told British parliamentarians that the Zimbabwean government is convinced that all land in Zimbabwe should be government-owned and then leased back to men and women who show an ability to produce food and thus re-vitalise agriculture with British and other donor nations support.

Dennis Norman: People are obsessed with the ownership of land. Land ownership is important but more important is productivity. Now how do you make the land productive because you can't produce any more land, so you have to produce more product off the existing land. And I think one of the ways of looking at it would be to establish something like a land tribunal which would take over the title deeds of all agriculture land, hold them in trust for the Government and then work out a scheme of land leases to that those who are productive and wish to be farmers can get on with the job of farming and producing.

The Africa All Party report says there is still resentment in Zimbabwe over the Lancaster House Conference held in London in 1979 which paved the way for one-man-one-vote elections in Zimbabwe and the victory of Robert Mugabe. Zimbabwe still insists that Britain promised it millions of pounds to compensate commercial farmers when their land was needed by the government. Britain denies it ever committed itself to such an undertaking.

Hugh Bayley says that there must be a fresh dialogue on this subject that has so soured relations between London and Harare for the last 30 years.

Hugh Bayley MP: If the basic rules of land reform were changed so that it was poor people in Zimbabwe who gained access to land, poor landless people, then I would argue very strongly that the British Government should start funding land reform again and go to other big donors, individual countries like the US, the Germans and multinational agencies like the World Bank to try and get them to put money up for this process because land is still politically potent and toxic. In Zimbabwe a solution is needed and the international
community has it part to play as well as local politicians to find a solution.

Mmm.

[Ken White]

Check the LINK (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/7119678/Secret-airstrip-built-at-Zimbabwe-diamond-field.html).

[M-A Lagrange]

Zimbabwe's Mugage defends local ownership laws

Mugabe's government passed an "indigenisation" law in 2007 to localise control of foreign firms. On Monday companies will have to provide information on shareholders and plans on how they intend to conform to the new law, which seeks to ensure locals own at least 51 percent.

"This law will enable us to examine every large company in the country and determine whether the ownership principle has been observed," Mugabe told a crowd in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second largest city.

"If not, then 51 percent must come to our people."

Companies then have 45 days to present their indigenisation plans -- those who fail face up to five years in jail.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE61Q1T120100227


For all those who believed that Bob's craziness would never survive MDC elections...
MDC is dead and Bob alive and with him, his dream of a maoist leninst communist Zimbabwe...
To all my friends in Harrare and Bulawayo: Courage, bob is not immortal!

[davidbfpo]

From:http://www.zimvigil.co.uk/ZimVigil-Diary-Entries/zimbabwe-vigil-diary-27th-february-2010.html


The MDC´s chief negotiator in the SADC-mediated negotiations, Tendai
Biti, said last week: `We are going nowhere on the dialogue and therefore it is very important for President Zuma and South Africa to step in and step in quickly. We as negotiators have reached our ceiling. It should be taken out of our hands. Continuing to let us negotiate we are wasting time because we have tried. We have been negotiating since the 14th of May 2007. I think we have reached where our human capabilities can take us as negotiators. Therefore we need a bigger brain - that of President Zuma and more wisdom - that of
SADC.

Wishful thinking IMHO unless President Zuma's mind can be changed.

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report by an ex-ZANU suuporter on Zimbabwe's Forgotten Children, with three short film clips and the last lines:
The system was supposed to take care of its people, but it has failed. In less than a generation, the country has changed beyond all recognition.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8538587.stm

[davidbfpo]

On the 4th March 1980 Robert Mugabe became Zimbabwe's Prime Minister and so not unexpectedly a few articles on his thirty year rule:

http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/62770


Mary Ndlovu paints a desolate picture of the Zimbabwe of now and its political future: ‘The “Unity Government” has stumbled from pillar to post, ending for the time being, paralysed in the intensive or perhaps terminal care unit of the political hospital.’ Ndlovu takes us through the events of the last year and argues that ZANU PF’s tactics have shifted from the defensive to the offensive.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/5797418/three-decades-of-murder-and-misrule.thtml


Richard Dowden explains how this intelligent and charismatic man became addicted to brutality (and ends with)...there is no chance of (an election) — and no money for — a free and fair election now. Mugabe remains — for the moment.

A strange story and I'm sure the UK Tory leader needs this:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/7370383/Robert-Mugabe-gives-David-Cameron-election-backing.html

[davidbfpo]

This week BBC Radio 4's Book of the Week is set in Zimbabwe, 'The Last Resort: A Zimbabwe memoir' by Douglas Rogers, a US-based journalist's account of his parents life in Zimbabwe. From a Zimbabwe email:
For many years, Lyn and Ros Rogers were the owners of Drifters, a famous game farm and backpacker lodge in the eastern mountains. But when President Robert Mugabe launched his violent land reclamation programme, everything changed. The Rogers found their home under siege, their friends and neighbours expelled, and their lives in danger. But instead of leaving, as their son pleaded with them to do, they hauled out a shotgun and stayed. The Last Resort is travelogue, adventure yarn, political intrigue and tragedy - but at its heart it is a love story about the author and his homeland.

Book of the Week is on the web:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qftk

Amazon UK:http://www.amazon.co.uk/Last-Resort-Douglas-Rogers/dp/1906021910and the author's website:http://www.douglasrogers.org/

[davidbfpo]

Probably not a date many will mark, let alone celebrate, but understandably some have provided a comment:

Under 'Zimbabwe's 30th birthday: how did Robert Mugabe turn hope into misery?' Zimbabwean white journalist Peta Thorneycroft: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/7601479/Zimbabwes-30th-birthday-how-did-Robert-Mugabe-turn-hope-into-misery.html

A BBC report, with many links: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8627813.stm and a black Zimbabwean's view:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8626146.stm

[davidbfpo]

An Al-Jazeera documentary, 47 mins, with reporter Rageh Omar (ex-BBC) and concludes:
The explanations for this crisis are equally polarised. The MDC says it is the result of 30 years of bad governance and kleptocracy. ZANU PF says it is the responsibility of the international community which has, it claims, isolated Zimbabwe economically in response to ZANU PF's policy of land reform.
Both ZANU PF and the MDC appear to be in a state of denial about the true condition of Zimbabwe at 30, and this cannot be the best way for the country to start its fourth decade as a nation.

Link:http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/ragehomaarreport/2010/04/2010412122425857194.html

Sad to watch and listen.

[davidbfpo]

The news that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been visiting Zimbabwe apepared in the press summaries IIRC. Now the real purpose beehind the state visit appears:
Iran has struck a secret deal with Zimbabwe to mine its untapped uranium reserves in a move to secure raw material for its steadily expanding nuclear programme.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/7628750/Iran-strikes-secret-nuclear-mining-deal-with-Zimbabwes-Mugabe-regime.html

A lot of details within and some coded words on how others, including Zimbabwe's neighbours might react.

A BBC News report, with a wider remit and notes the Prime Minister Tsvangirai didn't appreciate the visit :http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8639588.stm

[bourbon]

Return of the Blood Diamond: The deadly race to control Zimbabwe's new-found diamond wealth (http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/GlobalWitness_ReturnOfTheBloodDiamond_DeadlyRaceTo ControlZimbabwesNewFoundDiamondWealth.pdf). Global Witness, 14 June 2010. (PDF)

Zimbabwe’s Zanu PF political and military elite are seeking to capture the country’s diamond wealth through a combination of state-sponsored violence and the legally questionable introduction of opaque joint-venture companies. The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, set up to end the trade in conflict diamonds, has repeatedly failed to react effectively to the crisis.
http://log.eckelmann.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/diamonds.jpg

[davidbfpo]

Peter Godwin writes excellent books on Rhodesia / Zimbabwe and I've been alerted to a new book. This is a publisher write up I think:


In mid 2008, after nearly three decades of increasingly tyrannical rule, Robert Mugabe, the 84-year-old Robespierre of Zimbabwe, lost an election. But instead of conceding power, he launched a brutal campaign of terror against his own citizens. Peter Godwin, author of the brilliant memoir When a Crocodile Eats the Sun, was one of the few outside observers to bear witness to the terrifying period that Zimbabweans call, simply, The Fear. At great personal risk, Godwin returns secretly to the country that was once his home. He visits the torture bases, the burning villages, the death squads, the opposition leaders in hiding, the last white farmers, the churchmen and diplomats putting their own lives on the line to stop the carnage.

Threaded through with personal history, The Fear is the brave and astonishing record of a dictatorship gone mad. Accompanied by his sister Georgina, Godwin journeys through the ravaged, once-familiar landscape. They visit the grave of their sister, killed during the civil war. As they pour red "lucky bean" seeds from the coral tree in their old garden into the runnels of the letters on her gravestone, they call their mother, now living in exile in faraway London. `Where would you like to be buried when you die?´ he asks her. ` At home,´ she says. `In Africa. Next to your father.´

Told with a brilliant eye for detail and Godwin´s natural storytelling gifts, this is a story framed by personal loss. But most deeply, it is a moving and stunning account of a people grotesquely altered, laid waste by a raging despot. It is about the astonishing courage and resilience of a people, armed with nothing but a desire to be free, who challenge a violent dictatorship. And
in the spirit of Ryszard Kapuscinski´s The Emperor, Godwin takes us inside the dysfunctional court of Robert Mugabe as he battles to stay in power even at the cost of destroying his country. THE FEAR is, finally, an important, brilliant testament to humanity´s ability to transcend fear, to rise up, even in the face of astounding adversity.

Yet another book to add to my list.

[jcustis]

`Where would you like to be buried when you die?´ he asks her. ` At home,´ she says. `In Africa. Next to your father.´

I can only imagine what it must feel like to say those words.

Please pass on a review if you have the chance to read the book. your opinion is golden.

[JMA]

Read more at Peter Godwin dot com (http://petergodwin.com/books/the-fear/)

http://petergodwin.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/thefear.png

[davidbfpo]

Zimbabwe has once again fallen out of view, partly due to media restrictions and the knowledge little has changed I suspect.

So here is an article, written after a conference in Bulawayo and this is an opening quote:
What may seem to some a progressive and brave government is upon closer examination a tyranny’, which despite ‘rhetoric about land redistribution, is ultimately very hostile to its own society’s poor and working people, women, youth, elderly and ill,’ writes Patrick Bond.

Link:http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/68869

[JMA]

Zimbabwe has once again fallen out of view, partly due to media restrictions and the knowledge little has changed I suspect.

So here is an article, written after a conference in Bulawayo and this is an opening quote:

Link:http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/68869

You do know of course that Patrick Bond is still trapped in the "class struggle" of years gone by.

It is sad that so many of these people who supported the liberation struggle which placed the country in Mugabe's hands are unable to acknowledge the now obvious truth that they misread Mugabe's intentions.

Mugabe was not in it to promote communism (just needed a source of financial and military support) nor nationalism (just needed a supposed cause to hoodwink the population into supporting him).

Yes it is difficult for those who got it so very wrong to admit it... and so don't expect Jimmy Carter to accept responsibility for the genocide of Gukurahundi either.

[JMA]

"Zanu PF will rule even if you don’t want" - Mnangagwa - The Zimbabwe Mail (http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/zimbabwe/6666.html)


Defence minister and Zanu PF politburo member Emmerson Mnangagwa told hundreds of people in Kwekwe on Saturday that Zanu PF will continue to rule Zimbabwe even if Zimbabweans rejected it.

...and he and Mugabe know that there is no one to stop them.

[davidbfpo]

It maybe an appeal, but this article is written by an ex-Rhodesian and has some merit:
Graham Boynton explains why the country he loves needs its help so badly.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegraphchristmasappeal/8164467/Telegraph-Christmas-Appeal-we-must-not-forget-Zimbabwe.html

[JMA]

It maybe an appeal, but this article is written by an ex-Rhodesian and has some merit:

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegraphchristmasappeal/8164467/Telegraph-Christmas-Appeal-we-must-not-forget-Zimbabwe.html

As I understand it Graham Boynton was born in (the then) Rhodesia, was a lefty (by Rhodesian standards) in his youth and he claims he went into exile to avoid arrest.

[JMA]

Part of the Wikileaks package is a cable from the outgoing US Ambassador Dell in 2007 which he gave the title SUBJECT: The End is Nigh (http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/07/07HARARE638.html).

It is hard to believe that the US "machine" could have read that 2007 situation in Zimbabwe so wrong. Would really like to see some of their pre-1980 Rhodesian era cables and assessments.

[Rex Brynen]

It is hard to believe that the US "machine" could have read that 2007 situation in Zimbabwe so wrong. Would really like to see some of their pre-1980 Rhodesian era cables and assessments.

I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

[Stan]

Hey Rex and JMA !


I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

One couldn't fathom what "opinions" end up in a sent message regardless of what the rest of the Country Team thinks or knows.

There's certainly much more under the heading of "misreadings of African leaders" that make me glad to be retired :D

Regards, Stan

[JMA]

I agree, it was a very poor reading of Mugabe's staying power.

It wasn't necessarily indicative of all of the US "machine," however--it is a personal opinion cable by the ambassador, which may well be at odds with assessments offered elsewhere within the State Department, let alone the CIA, etc.

You give the State Department/CIA the benefit of the doubt.

Lets watch and see as the documents become available just how pervasive inept and deep seated the assessments of local political situations in various countries were.

[Rex Brynen]

You give the State Department/CIA the benefit of the doubt.

I didn't, actually--I merely pointed out what would be evident to anyone who had worked in a foreign ministry, namely that the cable could not be read as reflecting the views of much more than the ambassador of the day.

Indeed, in my experience, cables of that tone often reflect an ambassador's unease that his own views are not universally shared—hence Stan's comment below.

[JMA]

I didn't, actually--I merely pointed out what would be evident to anyone who had worked in a foreign ministry, namely that the cable could not be read as reflecting the views of much more than the ambassador of the day.

Indeed, in my experience, cables of that tone often reflect an ambassador's unease that his own views are not universally shared—hence Stan's comment below.

Well the world is about to see what goes on in the State Department for themselves.

[Stan]

Well the world is about to see what goes on in the State Department for themselves.

JMA,
I wish I could share your enthusiasm and optimism, but my 26 years of being around Embassy and State lead me to believe otherwise.

On the other hand, you may be correct...
There was a time in Zaire when one could read yesterday's message traffic while chomping on a road-side omelet/baguette less than 50 meters from the Embassy (the sandwich was wrapped in multiple pages of cable traffic). It was then I realized why only our office shredder was always broken or dull. :rolleyes:

Tom can tell you how fast our burn time was when we were there (not much to read about in our office).

[Tom Odom]

Tom can tell you how fast our burn time was when we were there (not much to read about in our office).

That would be the 5 seconds necessary to smash the hard drive with an axe.

Out of many Stan and I suffered through, my favorite chief of mission pronouncement was on July 16th 1994 regarding the impact of the Rwandan refugee exodus into Zaire:

"This will all be over in two weeks..."

Sixteen years and several million dead later, I still consider it worthy of a Guiness salute

Brilliant!

[davidbfpo]

Refreshed by the ZAPU party conference we have some reporting; from The Daily Telegraph:
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe has said his party is ready to bury his Western-backed opposition "forever" as there are warnings his forces are fanning out across the country in a bid to intimidate voters ahead of elections.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/8212666/Robert-Mugabe-ready-to-bury-the-opposition-as-opposition-warns-of-beatings-and-intimidation.html

Or the BBC:
Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has told the BBC of his desire to remain in power after his party endorsed him as an election candidate. On Saturday he closed his party's conference, saying that the power sharing deal with the MDC party is now dead.

Link, mainly a film clip:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12028675 and a longer written report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8410357.stm

Elsewhere, on the Zimbabwean expatriate / exile websites, there are more chilling reports; such as this:
In the last elections, you voted for the wrong party but today I am happy to see all of you here and I assume that you are here because you support the revolutionary party and what Mudha stands for. "If you disagree with what is being said here, then there is nothing I can do about it and if you don’t vote for us in the next election, this country is huge, we will rule even if you don’t want,” Mnangagwa said.

Mnangagwa, who is feared more than he is respected and was previously tipped to take over the party leadership from President Robert Mugabe, said Zimbabwe belonged to Zanu PF which would not hesitate to bless and reward its own sons who defended the cause of the party.

Link:http://www.zimdiaspora.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4499:zanu-pf-will-rule-by-force-emmerson-mnangagwa&catid=38:travel-tips&Itemid=18

Meantime I fear the West will close it's eyes, maybe pray and once more hope SADC (notably President Zuma) can stop such "political campaigning".

[JMA]

Meantime I fear the West will close it's eyes, maybe pray and once more hope SADC (notably President Zuma) can stop such "political campaigning".

Of course they will close their eyes. Mugabe (using diamond money) will buy off the SADC leaders and it will be business as usual.

Three cruise missiles (at a million a pop) is all that it would take.

[jmm99]

this:


from JMA
Three cruise missiles (at a million a pop) is all that it would take.

as evidenced by a number of US cruise missile failures to accomplish decapitations.

A adequately resourced invasion, aimed solely at regime removal (not regime change - that left to chance), would have a better probability of success.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

this:

as evidenced by a number of US cruise missile failures to accomplish decapitations.

A adequately resourced invasion, aimed solely at regime removal (not regime change - that left to chance), would have a better probability of success.

Regards

Mike

Funny that, the US can put a man on the moon but can't seem to get these missiles accurate.

Lets see what happens in the Ivory Coast this year and the Sudan next year.

[jmm99]

See this Rand monograph, Operations Against Enemy Leaders (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1385.html) by Stephen T. Hosmer (11 short pdf downloads at bottom to get entire monograph):


Operations targeted against senior enemy leaders have long been viewed as a potential means of shaping the policy and behavior of enemy states. As a result, the United States has launched a variety of overt and covert operations in efforts to attack enemy leaders directly, facilitate their overthrow by coup or rebellion, or secure their ouster through external invasion. This book examines a number of leadership attacks from World War II to the present to offer insights into the comparative efficacy of various forms of leadership attacks, their potential coercive and deterrent value, and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use. The book concludes that direct attacks, coups, and rebellions have met with only limited success and, even when successful, have sometimes yielded counterproductive results. Moreover, neither direct attacks nor coups have been of significant coercive or deterrent value, although rebellions have at times provided useful negotiating leverage. By contrast, external invasions have proved to be more efficacious both in shaping the targeted countries’ policy and behavior and in exerting coercive effects. The book concludes by outlining the likely conditions under which future leadership attacks are likely to be sanctioned and by delineating the prerequisites of effective use of air power in such contexts.

Report is from March 2001. Events since have simply re-inforced its conclusion re: regime removal (but I'd say sans nation-building).

BTW: I'm not suggesting that the US get rid of Mugabe. Zimbabwe is outside of the US zone of force projection if I had my druthers.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

BTW: I'm not suggesting that the US get rid of Mugabe.

Why not? The US put him there... now after a little genocide and the near total destruction of the country they would be obligated to clean up the mess they caused... IMHO.

[jmm99]

Because Zimbabwe is outside the line I'd draw if I had my druthers. Africa's problems are to be solved by Africans (Black and White) - IMHO.

Obviously, I do not have the "druthers". Your arguments re: US guilt for real or alleged misdeeds or commitments may or may not influence those who do and who are much more global in their Worldviews - whether guilt-ridden liberals or conservatives. I'm neither.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

Because Zimbabwe is outside the line I'd draw if I had my druthers. Africa's problems are to be solved by Africans (Black and White) - IMHO.

Obviously, I do not have the "druthers". Your arguments re: US guilt for real or alleged misdeeds or commitments may or may not influence those who do and who are much more global in their Worldviews - whether guilt-ridden liberals or conservatives. I'm neither.

Regards

Mike

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.

But before we get too hung up on Zimbabwe spare a thought for Nicaragua. First Carter hands it to the Sandinistas then Reagan interfered via the Contras and now Nicaragua has returned to being yet another South American basket case. Nicaraguans can be forgiven for asking for the real America to please stand up.

[Ken White]

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.

But before we get too hung up on Zimbabwe spare a thought for Nicaragua. First Carter hands it to the Sandinistas then Reagan interfered via the Contras and now Nicaragua has returned to being yet another South American basket case. Nicaraguans can be forgiven for asking for the real America to please stand up.The Nicaraguans aren't nearly as confused about it as you seem to be.

What you cite is the sometimes startling difference in foreign policies between US Administrations. The Nicaraguans, like most Central Americans, being neighbors and paying attention to that for over a century -- and with memory of US interventions and strange behavior of contrasting administrations in the 20s and 30s -- understand that. They may not like it but they know what it is. :wry:

The rest of the world seemingly does not, as you show... ;)

[Stan]

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.


This is probably not appropriate for me to say, but the years I have in that region have left me with a totally different view than most.

It's never been relevant to me "who" put the Mugabes and Mobutus into typical African-style power because I doubt all those American politicians intended for that Sierra to take place, and, we (those that came and taught them) certainly didn't teach them to rape, pillage and plunder along the way.

The only thing I have noticed is when the Africans finally take charge and get rid of their dictators do they inevitable prosper. I doubt and certainly don't expect any Western nation to jump in and remove Bob. Even if we did, he would be followed by another and yet another Bob.

Countries like Zimbabwe and Zaire were capable of feeding and taking care of their people for the next 100 years without importing much more than a cell phone :wry: Now we will once again be faced with wide-spread disease and famine, the NGOs will scarf up our money and dump it (there), and there will be some slight semblance of peace til the rice is once again gone.

I've seen some truly sad cases of political Sierra but I've only seen two clear cases where the people finally said they had "had enough".

Jeez, get off your Alpha and do something... You are already dying doing nothing while the rice bags arrive :mad:

[carl]

Bob, the LRA, Mai-Mai and group after "the gates of hell are open" group. TIA man, TIA; and I wish there was something we could do but I don't think there is.:mad::confused:


I've seen some truly sad cases of political Sierra but I've only seen two clear cases where the people finally said they had "had enough".

Which two Stan?

[Stan]

Which two Stan?

Hey Carl,

Just my .02 cents, but South Africa and Rwanda.

I don't take into account trade and all that other Sierra that the UN finds significant, because we both know there's tons of stuff to export and steal.

I would have given the DRC a strong 5th, but seems to me they blew it and hired another dictator and left the FAZ once again in charge.

Gabon and Cote d'ivoire were among my favorites, but I think the French are holding those two locations together.

And your selections ?

Regards, Stan

[carl]

I don't know Stan, I am interested in the area but I only really know a little about the DRC. So take the following with that grain of salt.

If RSA can ever get the crime under control I would go with that. Maybe the crime is overstated in my mind though. It will be interesting to see what happens when Mandela dies.

People I talked to always expressed amazement at Rwanda, especially as it sits right next to DRC. The question is I guess, what will Kagame do as he gets older and how will that affect things.

As far as the DRC goes, which one? Kinshasa area and Lubumbashi are a world apart from the rest and when I was there they seemed extremely energetic at least. At least in most of the DRC the situation is better than Zim so that is an accomplishment of some kind.

I don't know...which is why I asked.

[JMA]

The Nicaraguans aren't nearly as confused about it as you seem to be.

What you cite is the sometimes startling difference in foreign policies between US Administrations. The Nicaraguans, like most Central Americans, being neighbors and paying attention to that for over a century -- and with memory of US interventions and strange behavior of contrasting administrations in the 20s and 30s -- understand that. They may not like it but they know what it is. :wry:

The rest of the world seemingly does not, as you show... ;)

Well put Ken.

This is exactly why (probably) half the US aid to Afghanistan is used to buy mansions in Dubai for the current government and its cronies as an insurance against the schizophrenic US foreign policy.

Afghan vice-president 'landed in Dubai with $52m in cash' (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1335281/WikiLeaks-Afghan-vice-president-landed-Dubai-52m-cash.html)

You reap what you sow.

[Ken White]

Or reap things others have sown... :wry:
This is exactly why (probably) half the US aid to Afghanistan is used to buy mansions in Dubai for the current government and its cronies as an insurance against the schizophrenic US foreign policy."Probably?" Good caveat, lot of wiggle room there...:D

For our Foreign Policy to be schizophrenic, we'd have to have one. We do not. Never have. Save one item -- to react to any threats and remove them. We do that -- one way or another... ;)

[JMA]

Or reap things others have sown... :wry:"Probably?" Good caveat, lot of wiggle room there...:D

I'm dealing with the "revenge of the nitpickers" at the moment so one can't be too careful. ;)

[J Wolfsberger]

From The Atlantic (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/12/how-wikileaks-just-set-back-democracy-in-zimbabwe/68598/):

"... If his political adversaries knew Tsvangirai secretly supported the sanctions, deeply unpopular with Zimbabweans, they would have a powerful weapon to attack and discredit the democratic reformer.

Later that day, the U.S. embassy in Zimbabwe dutifully reported the details of the meeting to Washington in a confidential U.S. State Department diplomatic cable. And slightly less than one year later, WikiLeaks released it to the world.

The reaction in Zimbabwe was swift. Zimbabwe's Mugabe-appointed attorney general announced he was investigating the Prime Minister on treason charges based exclusively on the contents of the leaked cable. ..."

[davidbfpo]

Now who did these 'veterans' upset, somehow I doubt that the facilities were owned by 'whites'?


Zimbabwean police drove out scores of so-called war veterans and supporters of President Robert Mugabe after they declared themselves new owners of several tourist resorts, a minister and media reports said Monday...The seizures on Saturday near Lake Chivero...

Link, from AFP:http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110124/wl_africa_afp/zimbabwepoliticsviolencefarm

[JMA]

...the Mugabe regime starts to pull bodies out of mine shafts.

I spent a lot of my time operating out of Mount Darwin in the mid 70s. The routine for insurgent KIA from every contact was to back-load the bodies by vehicle or helicopter to the police Special Branch in Mount Darwin so that the bodies could be photographed and fingerprinted. Civilians killed in the "cross-fire" were left in situ for burial in their respective villages.

As the body-count rose the logistics of disposal of these bodies became too great and there was local resistance to the burning of bodies out at the airfield (using expired/old/etc aircraft fuel) due to the smell. Anyone who has smelt bodies burning remembers that smell forever. I understand the solution was found when a local farmer suggested using the many old mine shafts in the area for the purpose.

The issue of the dignity of burial aside it is my understanding that is where the bodies were disposed of. In fact if they only found 1,000 bodies they should go look in some of the other mine shafts in the area.

Later in the war the recovery of all bodies became logistically impossible and the insurgent bodies were searched, stripped of usable military equipment and left in situ.

But the idea that Mugabe is attempting to sell here is that these were not the bodies of armed combatants but rather victims of some or other massacre. Those that want to believe this will believe it as they did during the war regardless of the facts.

... and I leave it to you to guess where the bodies found that are clearly not over 30 years old come from.


Mt Darwin mass graves contain fresh bodies: Pathologist (http://www.zimdiaspora.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5320:mt-darwin-mass-graves-contain-fresh-bodies-pathologist&catid=55:lnternational-news&Itemid=297)


"Ordinarily by this time there should only be bone-remains if its true that these bodies are of people who died in the 70s," the pathologist said. "Certainly there should not be any smell at all from the remains over 30 years after those people died."


Who filled Mt Darwin mine with 1 000 human dead bodies? (http://www.zimdiaspora.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5349:who-filled-mt-darwin-mine-with-1-000-dead-bodies&catid=38:travel-tips&Itemid=18)


The presence of some corpses still with skin, hair and body fluids has raised doubts over claims white colonial-era troops committed the massacres more than 30 years ago.

[davidbfpo]

Way back in February 2010, referring to Peter Godwin's book 'The Fear' Jon C, partial quote
Please pass on a review if you have the chance to read the book.

The British-Zimbabwe Society magazine (not in e-format)has posted an anonymous review:
In mid 2008, after nearly three decades of increasingly tyrannical rule, Robert Mugabe, the 84 year old Robespierre of Zimbabwe, lost an election. But instead of conceding power, he launched a brutal campaign of terror against his own citizens. Peter Godwin, author of the brilliant memoir When a Crocodile eats the Sun, was one of the few outside observers to bear witness to the terrifying period that Zimbabweans call, simply, The Fear. At great personal risk, Godwin returns secretly to the country that was once his home. He visits the torture bases, the burning villages, the death squads, the opposition leaders in hiding, the last white farmers, the churchmen and diplomats putting their own lives on the line to stop the carnage. Threaded through with personal history, The Fear is the brave and astonishing record of a dictatorship gone mad. Accompanied by his sister Georgina, Godwin journeys through the ravaged, once-familiar landscape. They visit the grave of their sister, killed during the civil war. As they pour red “lucky bean” seeds from the coral tree in their old garden into the runnels of the letters on her gravestones, they call their mother, mow living in exile in faraway London. ‘Where would you like to be buried when you die?’ he asks her. ‘At home,’ she says. ‘In Africa. Next to your father.’

Told with a brilliant eye for detail and Godwin’s natural storytelling gifts, this is a story framed by personal loss. But most deeply, it is a moving and stunning account of a people grotesquely altered, laid waste by a raging despot. It is about the astonish courage and resilience of a people, armed with nothing but a desire to be free, who challenge a violent dictatorship. And in the spirit of Ryszard Kapuscinski’s The Emperor, Godwin takes us inside the dysfunctional court of Robert Mugabe as he battles to stay in power even at the cost of destroying his country. THE FEAR is, finally, an important, brilliant testament to humanity’s ability to transcend fear, to rise up, even in the face of astounding adversity.

[davidbfpo]

Mugabe & ZANU-PF's strategy probably needs little explanation here, but this newsletter by an opposition group provides some details not seen in the sparse external reporting:http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/archives/6583

The depth of corruption is well shown by:
..the sheer scale of the fraud indicated ..... is staggering. More than 75 000 ghost workers, mostly unqualified Zanu-PF militias and supporters, have been unearthed in the Zimbabwean civil service.....The audit shows that there are more than 75 000 ghost workers out of a total of 188 000 employed in various ministries.

[JMA]

Peter Godwin writing in a New York Times op-ed - Making Mugabe Laugh (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/19/opinion/19godwin.html?partner=rss&emc=rss) - states:


Zimbabweans need help if their voices are to be heard. If the United States wants to prove that Mrs. Clinton’s words were more than empty rhetoric, it should begin by pressuring South Africa. Otherwise Zimbabwe’s hopes for freedom will founder, even as Ivory Coast regains its stolen democracy.

While Godwin understands the dynamics of whats happening on the ground in Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe and that Clinton made an idiot statement sadly if he is expecting any effective political effort from the US he will wait a long time.

Clinton seems to believe that the eviction of Gbagbo sent:


“a strong signal to dictators and tyrants throughout the region and around the world. They may not disregard the voice of their own people in free and fair elections, and there will be consequences for those who cling to power.”

Is this woman and the US State Department for real?

What dictators out of Africa and beyond have learned from the Ivory Coast is that if you want to stay in power you don't hold United Nations-supervised free and fair elections.

They probably sing in unison that Gbagbo got what he deserved. Watch Mugabe, no United Nations-supervised elections for him.

[jmm99]

JMA, Ms Clinton is for real. ;)

Read her 1969 thesis,


THERE IS ONLY THE FIGHT...", An Analysis of the Alinsky Model, A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Bachelor of Arts degree under the Special Honors Program, Wellesley College, Wellesley, Massachusetts. Hillary D. Rodham, Political Science, 2 May, 1969 [© 1969 Hillary D. Rodham].

It tells you much of what you might want to know.

Note that this is copyrighted (helps to keep distribution down :D); but copies are all over (e.g., jpg scans and pdfs). Google Advanced Search - "THERE IS ONLY THE FIGHT" rodham - gets 35+K hits, including this Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Rodham_senior_thesis).

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

JMA, Ms Clinton is for real. ;)

Read her 1969 thesis,

It tells you much of what you might want to know.

Note that this is copyrighted (helps to keep distribution down :D); but copies are all over (e.g., jpg scans and pdfs). Google Advanced Search - "THERE IS ONLY THE FIGHT" rodham - gets 35+K hits, including this Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Rodham_senior_thesis).

Regards

Mike

92 pages of Rodham from her university days is too much. I am having enough trouble keeping up with the amount of stuff Ken is churning out.

My view that her and the State Department's understanding of the message re Gbagbo's ouster is dead wrong stands. And considering that the US had a very limited role in the ouster of Gbagbo maybe she and the US government should say less about it all... much less.

[jmm99]

and I've added two words to your sentence (and changed one) to make it mine:


I am having enough trouble keeping up with the amount of stuff Ken and JMA are churning out.

Keep having fun, guys - at least, you all are not sheep. :D:):D

BLUF (my view of thesis): Ms Rodham rejects Alinsky's methodolgies - and also a job offer from him.


Mr. Alinsky and I met twice during October in Boston and during January at Wellesley. Both times he was generous with ideas and interest. His offer of a place in the new Institute was tempting but after spending a year trying to make sense out of his inconsistency, I need three years of legal rigor.

Viewed from a national level, his methods are too slow and not likely to succeed. What is needed is a substantial change in governance, with large government programs to reach the desired end goals. In essence, a tidal wave vs a "bubble up" from the base.

As I perceive it, Ms Rodham-Clinton has expanded her 1969 construct to an international arena.

Regards

Mike

[Ken White]

I am having enough trouble keeping up with the amount of stuff Ken is churning out.quite...
My view that her and the State Department's understanding of the message re Gbagbo's ouster is dead wrong stands.That's impressive...:D
And considering that the US had a very limited role in the ouster of Gbagbo maybe she and the US government should say less about it all... much less.Should've done and said less to begin with, none of our concern. ;)

[JMA]

Viewed from a national level, his methods are too slow and not likely to succeed. What is needed is a substantial change in governance, with large government programs to reach the desired end goals. In essence, a tidal wave vs a "bubble up" from the base.

As I perceive it, Ms Rodham-Clinton has expanded her 1969 construct to an international arena.

And she has achieved what at national and/or international levels?

[JMA]

On the subject of Gbagbo...


Should've done and said less to begin with, none of our concern. ;)

Excuse me Ken, there has been a UN presence there since the civil war. They were the vehicle for action and failed. The French were lurking around and were, like in Libya, the prime movers to get the show on the road even if it was pathetically belated.

[Ken White]

...there has been a UN presence there since the civil war. They were the vehicle for action and failed. The French were lurking around and were, like in Libya, the prime movers to get the show on the road even if it was pathetically belated.It was, as I said, no concern of the US...

[jmm99]

a "constitutional majority" in the Legislative - for the first two years of the Obama administration, the Democrats did manage to enact a type of governance change along the lines that I see as Ms Rodham-Clinton's construct.

A friend of mine noted that the Democrats in the first 8 months passed the first 8 years of what they wanted. That's the way I see it from the sidelines - and I am not addressing the merits of our domestic politics here at SWC (my restraint; not a constraint).

Internationally ? My mom used to say that if you can't say anything good about a person, shut up.

_________________________


Regards

Mike

[Stan]

My mom used to say that if you can't say anything good about a person, shut up.

Regards

Mike

hyvää iltaa Virosta !

You have a wise mother (don't we all :) ) !!!

Regarding her thesis or interpretation of Saul...


Radicals must be resilient, adaptable to shifting political circumstances, and sensitive enough to the process of action and reaction to avoid being trapped by their own tactics and forced to travel a road not of their choosing

Hmmm, Blew that one :eek:

But there is this:


The end is what you want, the means is how you get it... The real arena is corrupt and bloody

Regards, Stan

[tequila]

I'm enjoying how Ms. Clinton's senior thesis explains the Obama Administration's foreign policy. Who knew that they were both signed on members of the Comintern even then? :eek:

Or perhaps Bill Ayers wrote her thesis as well? :D

Perhaps our cowardly refusal to kill Laurent Gbagbo with Tomahawk missiles or extremely violent ex-Sandline types is really an example of Alinskyite radicalism in action (or in-action?) Communists, oh so cunning!

[davidbfpo]

Gentlemen,

This is the Zimbabwe thread:wry:, although I will concede the SWJ meandering debating society is on an African trek of late.:rolleyes:

Back to Zimbabwe now. Sadly once again the media focus has slipped, although unlike other places in distant Arab lands I am not sure Mugabe and ZANU-PF care much for media reporting, let alone it has an impact on them. South Africa under President Zuma appears to just watch and maybe privately criticise, which we know has little impact.

Zimbabwe is alone.

[davidbfpo]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) have published a report on Zimbabwe, entitled 'Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?':http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/173-zimbabwe-the-road-to-reform-or-another-dead-end.aspx

The summary ends with:
The GPA still offers a coherent framework for putting in place conditions for credible elections. However, progress remains stymied because ZANU-PF has not demonstrated a credible commitment to democratic reforms, and the MDC-T is not strong enough to force them through. The GPA guarantors and South Africa have now indicated they are prepared to take a much more hands-on approach, although it is unclear how this will manifest itself. It is important that they continually engage Zimbabwe’s political leaders to take their own commitments seriously and set clear benchmarks and timelines for achieving the concrete steps set out in the SADC communiqué. Accelerating the implementation of key reforms, many of which have already been approved, is all the more necessary because a credible election process cannot take place until the appropriate conditions are in place.

Earlier the summary notes:
ZANU-PF and Mugabe have countered that they will not tolerate external interference, even from neighbours.

Sad.

[davidbfpo]

Via a BSAP Association email a pointer to:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/books/the-fear-robert-mugabe-and-the-martyrdom-of-zimbabwe-by-peter-godwin.html?ref=michikokakutani

Which ends with a note of admiration for the ordinary Zimbabwean who is persecuted:
....Mr. Godwin asks. “Westerners often mistake African endurance, and the lack of self-pity, for fatalism. No, I think the other quality in Chenjerai Mangezo is patience, a dogged tenacity. He hasn’t given up on getting justice. But he will wait for it.”

“People like Chenjerai,” he goes on, “are the real asine mabvi — the men without knees. Not only were his legs covered by plaster casts for months, but he has refused to kneel, refused to prostrate himself before the dictatorship, whatever the consequences.”

Patient too and little prospect IMHO of any real change.

[davidbfpo]

A DVD with this thirty minute documentary arrived this week, circulated by Amnesty International, as part of its campaign to support farm workers in Zimbabwe:
Gertrude Hambiru, chairwoman of the agricultural trade union GAPWUZ. She presented the impressive documentary ‘ House of Justice’, which shows the consequences of the brutal violence which is conducted against Zimbabwean farmers and their employees.

Link to film:http://www.a24media.com/index.php/component/content/article/90-films/969-house-of-justice

Not easy watching in places. Since circulation Ms Hambiru has fled Zimbabwe.

[davidbfpo]

A nice headline after a SADC meeting and a report which starts with:
Leaders from across southern Africa, who have long deferred to President Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s 87-year-old strongman, dealt him a setback on Sunday, calling for speedier progress toward free and fair elections conducted “on a level playing field” and injecting the region more forcefully into the process of making that happen.

Ends with:
..regional leaders had strongly backed Mr. Zuma’s push to strengthen the electoral institutions needed to ensure that Zimbabweans will be able to vote without fear of reprisals.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/world/africa/13zimbabwe.html?_r=1&ref=world

Diplomatic announcements alas matter little in the villages where the "playing field" is far from "level", where the voters face state-sponsored intimidation and violence. Well an "injection'" by the region will be magic!

[carl]

A DVD with this thirty minute documentary arrived this week, circulated by Amnesty International, as part of its campaign to support farm workers in Zimbabwe:

Link to film:http://www.a24media.com/index.php/component/content/article/90-films/969-house-of-justice

Not easy watching in places. Since circulation Ms Hambiru has fled Zimbabwe.

One of the farms mentioned in the documentary was Stockdale which also figured in Lauren St. John's book Rainbow's End.

Few things seem to end well in Africa.

[davidbfpo]

A top army officer in Zimbabwe has accused Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of being a security threat.

"He takes instructions from foreigners who seek to effect illegal regime change," Brig-Gen Douglas Nyikayaramba told the state-run Herald paper.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13888810

Yet another sign that the planned / prospective general election is fraught with problems.

[davidbfpo]

A link to a short prison experience landed today, but was preceded by this quotation from Nelson Mandela (no source cited):
It is said that no one truly knows a nation until one has been inside its jails. A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.

The Zimbabwe prison experience:http://www.kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=7292

Secondly I spotted an advert for this new book by Paul Moorcraft 'Mugabe's War Machine Saving on Savaging Zimbabwe?':http://www.pen-and-sword.co.uk/Mugabes-War-Machine/p/3196/

[davidbfpo]

A BBC story I missed and provides context for events in Zimbabwe starts with:
In 2000, President Robert Mugabe launched Zimbabwe's controversial fast-track land reforms, seizing the majority of the 4,500 farms held by mostly white commercial farmers. More than a decade on, while some of the new farmers are doing well, others have found that if they cross the ruling party, they face losing their new land.

Ends with:
President Mugabe's land reforms have had a mixed outcome, with at least as many farm workers losing their livelihoods as there are new farmers working their own land. The country is also now a net food importer where it once exported grain to the region.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15919538

[carl]

How low can it go? The country must import food but the economy is a wreck so where will the money come from? This place may go Congo or even Somalia low, though with a functioning army. Just great.

[tequila]

Where will money come from? Diamonds, of course (http://www.economist.com/node/16438814).



TENDAI BITI, Zimbabwe’s finance minister, has described the 60,000-hectare Marange diamond field in the country’s east as “the biggest find of alluvial diamonds in the history of mankind”. Potential revenue is estimated at $1 billion-$1.7 billion a year, about half the crisis-ridden country’s total forecast GDP this year and enough to end its economic woes almost at a stroke. But if the revenue fell exclusively into the hands of President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF it could, critics argue, spell the return of a single-party dictatorship and end the present shaky power-sharing arrangement between Mr Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).


King Leopold had nothing on Robert Mugabe.

[Stan]

How low can it go? ...though with a functioning army.

And much like Congo, the functional army is dependent on being paid before it takes matters into its own hands.

Minerals didn't/don't seem to help the Congolese hierarchy for long and the military are but a rouge element outside of the capital. Once a country with so much potential and few imported food stuffs now sell green bell peppers from Belgium at 5 bucks a pop :confused:

[davidbfpo]

Robert Mugabe has struck a secret "gentleman's agreement" to hand over power in Zimbabwe to his feared defence minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, sources close to the two men have revealed.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/9192076/Robert-Mugabe-strikes-secret-deal-to-hand-Zimbabwe-power-to-Emmerson-Mnangagwa.html

There is something strange IMO if 'The Crocodile' granted an interview in 2011 to the Sunday Telegraph, not a "progressive" paper by ZANU-PF standards.

[Marshal Murat]

I doesn't seem this is an interview per se, but Zimbabwe regime fishing to see what regional and international actors would think of "The Crocodile" as a new president of Zimbabwe. I do wonder if there could be parallels drawn between Mugabe and this succession and the apartheid government's transitions to securocrats.

[davidbfpo]

I am not convinced that ZANU PF is:
fishing to see what regional and international actors would think of "The Crocodile" as a new president of Zimbabwe.

For a host of reasons, principally loyalty to Mugabe as the revolutionary liberator of Zimbabwe, most regional actors do little of substance over what happens and internationally Zimbabwe has been written off. The ZANU PF "barons" are in power and not letting go as they plunder the liberated land.

As for :
I do wonder if there could be parallels drawn between Mugabe and this succession and the apartheid government's transitions to securocrats.

I can recall in the mid-1980's when in Zimbabwe that 'The Crocodile' was already considered a likely successor, partly due to his competence compared to many of the other ministers. Yes he has a security background, IIRC now many years ago at the Ministry of Defence, but since 1980 has not served in uniform. This is more about a succession issue within the hierarchy of ZANU PF and not a national battle for regime survival - as apartheid RSA saw.

[Marshal Murat]

I'll concede the first point, but I think that the Zimbabwean government in this succession policy points to continuing holdout against the MDC. Unsurprising that they don't want to lose power. Yet the continued hardliner stance will not win many friends amongst neighbors and possibly continue the sanctions against the government.

[davidbfpo]

A different point of view by a British columnist, who was born in Rhodesia and making his visit to Zimbabwe since 1968:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/all/7764243/the-troubling-truth-about-zimbabwe.thtml

Nice to read someone who is an optimist, Zimbabwe could be a great country for all it's people.

[davidbfpo]

President Mugabe has announced that Zimbabwe will hold elections on 31 July.

When the last elections were held - in 2008 - a wave of politically motivated violence spread across the country after the first round of polling. More than 200 people were killed, 10,000 injured and 28,000 forced to flee their homes.

The South African Development Community has recommended that the election date be pushed back to 14 August. Zimbabwe’s constitutional court will now decide the final date for election.

From:http://action.amnesty.org.uk/ea-action/action?ea.client.id=1194&ea.campaign.id=21019&utm_source=Email&utm_medium=mass_email&utm_campaign=HRD&utm_content=Zimbabwe_elections_link3

A BBC overview:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22889406

[davidbfpo]

A short comment by Knox Chitiyo, for Chatham House, which starts with:
Zimbabwe's election on 31 July will mark the formal end of the fragile 2009 Government of National Unity (GNU) which, for all its fractiousness, has proved surprisingly resilient and brought economic stability to Zimbabwe after a decade of national trauma.

He ends, optimistically:
The hope – and it is still a reasonable one – is that the 2013 election will be passably credible and produce a new government which is fit for purpose.

Link:http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/193509

There's something about organising elections that seems to have been lost:
On 14-16 July uniformed forces voted nationwide in a special election, seen as a dry-run for 31 July. There were numerous glitches, such as a lack of ballot boxes, names not appearing on the roll, and late starts. With tempers fraying, police units had to be deployed at the Harare polls to maintain order. If the ZEC struggled to process 37,000 voters over three days, what will happen on 31 July when millions will be at the polls?

Yes the police had to deployed to the security forces voting!:eek:

[davidbfpo]

I have struggled to find a decent report on what happened last week until an email provided one by Dr Sue Onslow, LSE, an academic who has researched Rhodesia-Zimbabwe history. It is on the attachment.

The vote itself from the BBC:
Presidential:

Robert Mugabe, Zanu-PF - 61%, 2,110,434 votes
Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC - 34%, 1,172,349 votes

Parliamentary:

Zanu-PF - 160 seats (up 61 seats from 2008)
MDC - 49 seats (down 51 seats from 2008)

No great surprise Robert Mugabe found ways to ensure he remained in power, although I've yet to see an published, reliable opinion polling data.

[davidbfpo]

Sad, but true - as this campaigning group shows:http://www.sokwanele.com/zimbabwe-elections/evidence-of-fraud

Their summary ends, with a forlorn hope IMHO:
We find it astonishing that anyone - let alone leaders of (SADC) States whose role it is is to ensure the will of the people prevails - can turn a blind eye to the array of outrages that have occurred in our country with regards the 2013 polls.

Here is one example of manipulating the electoral roll; yes Zimbabwe should be a beautiful place to live so long:
...350,000 people who are more than 85 years old and 109,000 aged over 100 - including a 135-year-old army officer.

[JMA]

Interesting development:

China planning airbase at Zimbabwe's diamond fields (http://www.thetelescopenews.com/index.php/world/3187-china-planning-airbase-at-zimbabwe-s-diamond-fields.html)

[davidbfpo]

Rare reporting on Zimbabwe caught my eye. The focus is on the policeem who ran away and came back later with ZANU-PF helpers:
Last Friday the police launched a raid on the shrine of a religious cult, the Johane Masowe weChishanu, in Budiriro, a poor Harare suburb. They had hoped to shut down the church, which is accused of marrying off young girls to church elders and banning children from attending school.

Instead, the police were brutally beaten in a melee that also left a journalist injured. That the incident did not cause outrage at such disregard for the law, instead attracting derision and mockery of the police, says a lot about how the public have come to view the police.


Within hours of the violence, Zimbabwean social media erupted. There was celebration, and the few voices that sought to ask whether this was not another step towards lawlessness were quickly drowned out.


Link:http://mg.co.za/article/2014-06-05-the-thin-blue-line-gets-its-first-red-card

[davidbfpo]

Zimbabwe has been arigocracy for awhile now, so the latest political news is not really a surprise, except this time it is ZANU-PF members who have been excluded:http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-19065-No+elections,+Mugabe+to+pick+own+deputies/news.aspx

Oh yes, in case you don't follow Zimbabwe closely Mugabe's wife appears to be destined to follow him.

[davidbfpo]

A superb explanation of the situation in Zimbabwe, one that few here I expect will dissent from and totally unacceptable to those who see Mugabe and his party as liberators:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/14772/despite-zimbabwe-purge-mugabe-succession-still-far-from-certain? (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/14772/despite-zimbabwe-purge-mugabe-succession-still-far-from-certain?)

A taster:
Zimbabwe may not yet be categorized as an outright failed state akin to Somalia, but it remains a highly dysfunctional one, a victim of decades of misrule by a predatory elite that has plundered the state and drained the term “liberation” of any semblance of meaning.

To hope that ZANU-PF can become a vehicle for change under figures so deeply compromised as Mnangagwa, Grace Mugabe or Mujuru is folly, and only the party’s collapse can rescue Zimbabwe from its current condition as a virtual mafia state.

[davidbfpo]

A short article on Zimbabwe, which opens with:
The Zimbabwean economy is going through structural regression, with rapid deindustrialisation, burgeoning external debt, an over 85% formal unemployment rate and nominal growth due to declining investment and a biting liquidity crunch. Between 2011 and 2015 over 4,610 companies closed their doors leaving over 55 000 workers redundant, putting further pressure on a cash-strapped population. This year’s harvest has failed due to insufficient rain while a regional maize shortage and empty government coffers will leave thousands without sufficient food. Within the ruling ZANU-PF, a battle rages between the emergent successor to President Robert Mugabe and his rival – disgraced former Vice President Joice Mujuru – who holds the latent support of a significant number of the ruling party’s major players. While the country faces a growing crisis and the ruling party turns in on itself, the battle-weary opposition has lost momentum and is facing its own internal crises, leaving fatigued citizens to trudge on with few credible prospects for change.

Going back to 2008 is this startling passage, with my emphasis:
Following the hotly-contested 2008 elections, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission stalled the release of the presidential results for five weeks, ultimately announcing that there had been no clear winner.....In a surprising moment of candour at the ZANU-PF congress in December 2014, President Robert Mugabe accidentally let slip that the opposition had in fact won the contentious 2008 polls by an astounding 73%.
Link:http://africanarguments.org/2015/04/23/as-the-house-burns-whither-the-zimbabwean-opposition-by-nicole-beardsworth/

[Firn]

Mugabe and his cronies had sadly many years to do their deeds, thanks in part to the principled support of thier (South) African neighbours for which only one thing or principle seemed important.

[davidbfpo]

A historian of events in Zimbabwe, using historical documents, has written a short article 'New documents claim to prove Mugabe ordered Gukurahundi killings' wayback in 1983:
The documents point to internal killings neither provoked nor sustained by outsiders, suggesting that the atrocities were driven from the top by Zanu-PF in pursuit of specific political objectives. Viewed across a period of several years, the documents appear to provide evidence that the massacres were but one component of a sustained and strategic effort to remove all political opposition within five years of independence. Zanu-PF leaders were determined to secure a “victory” against a non-existent opposition in elections scheduled for 1985, after which there would be a “mandate” from the people to impose a one-party state.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/19/mugabe-zimbabwe-gukurahundi-massacre-matabeleland

[Firn]

Zimbabwe offers new exchange rate: $1 for 35,000,000,000,000,000 old dollars (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/12/zimbabwe-offers-new-exchange-rate-1-for-35000000000000000-old-dollars), so far until September.


From Monday, customers who held Zimbabwean dollar accounts before March 2009 can approach their banks to convert their balance into US dollars, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, John Mangudya, said in a statement.

Even if you take into account the six years and the liquidity held in USD or other currency, for example by Mr. Mugabe and company, it is shocking that only $20m have been made available in a country of 13 million...

[davidbfpo]

A short, simple explanation as to why and how Zimbabwe has reached its dire situation today:
The Chief Executive of an organisation made an appointment to see the Vice President, Emmerson Mnangagwa this week. He was told to come to the office at 08.30hrs and was there on time. When he got into the office the person through whom he had made the appointment asked him if he had brought "the envelope". The CEO said no and that he was not going to pay to see the Vice President. He waited two hours and a Secretary told him to go downstairs and see someone who would get him into the VP - he walked down and when he got there he decided that enough is enough and he just kept going.

I told him to tell the VP of this incident and that I was sure that he would be furious that
someone was making money by "facilitating access". I told him that was the right decision, but the
problem is that this sort of "rent seeking" does not stop there.

Another friend, also a very senior executive said to me the other day that the major problem in
Zimbabwe is the direct linkages that exist between business of all kinds and the ruling elite -
nothing happens if it does not benefit key decision makers. Many accept this reality and simply
accommodate the rent seekers and pay what is demanded. In doing so they demean both the beneficiary
and the person making the payments.

I have just finished reading Fay Chung´s new book "The Second Chimurenga Revisited". In this book
she goes through a painful process of reliving the nightmare years in the Zanla Camps and the
liberation war. For the first time I appreciated the background that has dominated the thinking of
the men and women who came to power in 1980. The sense of entitlement and the need to hold onto
power at all costs; the practice of eliminating those who contested them for power and control.

Besides being ill prepared for the responsibilities of government in 1980, they were a confused
mixture of Marxist ideology, tribalism, traditional religion, military training and values and only
the most scanty appreciation of what it took to manage a small, but sophisticated economy and a
democratic system of government. Once they appreciated just what was involved in having control and
access to State resources, they also fully appreciated that if they lost control at any time, the
consequences would be serious for them and their extended families.

With their background training in East Germany, the Soviet Union and China they also came to power
knowing that no aspect of national life could be allowed independence and self management and
control. So once they had settled in a systematic attack was started on all institutions - the
Trade Unions, business Associations, big business. All were deliberately infiltrated and it was
made clear to business that if they wanted to get anywhere they had to have people who were
"acceptable" in charge. Institutions that refused integration or subjugation were destabilized and
eliminated. Every aspect of life was made to serve the State and the direct links between business
and the political elite established.

If you were in the system you benefitted and loyalty was rewarded with patronage and wealth. Any
attempt to break away from the system was met with savage retaliation so that when Amos Midzi found
himself out of the inner circle and was suspended from the Zanu PF Party - he was instantly outside
the golden triangle and could not pay even his children´s school fees. He committed suicide.

More than any other factor it is this link between politics and business that is now inhibiting the
growth and development of the Zimbabwean economy. The fact that this process is then linked to rent
seeking activity just exacerbates the situation. Rent seeking taking many forms from the incident
involving getting an appointment with a Vice President to decision making and taking a cut out of
every business deal.

It is clear here that the secret determination of salaries for senior executives in many spheres of
activities (local authorities, pension funds, state controlled Boards) is directly linked to the
need for control and influence over the individuals concerned and even sharing the proceeds. This
is how the CEO of the Public Service Medical Aid Society came to get a salary of US$600 000 a month
and the top four executives in the Broadcasting Board getting a package well over a million dollars
a year despite the fact that the organisation could not pay staff.

At first the economy was able to carry this burden but as the demands for rentals rose and the
management of the economy deteriorated, the combined effects simply became too much to bear and
economic collapse and decline became endemic.

Big organisations that are State owned and controlled and have a significant cash flow (utilities)
are an obvious target. So in South Africa you have ESKOM, a well managed and funded State owned
company in 1994, able to supply cheap power to a growing economy. In the past 20 years Eskom has
become a shadow of what it once was - aging infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, inept senior
staff and massive rent seeking and corruption. Their latest project, a huge coal fired power
station in the north west of the country, is 150% over budget, 5 years behind schedule and the
Directors say they may not be able to get it operational. Mammoth failures on this scale are now
crippling the South African economy - once the engine of African growth.

Rent seeking can take many forms - in Zimbabwe we have created a number of organisations that have
been given the right to either tax residents for income or charge for their services. The list of
such institutions that are essentially rent seekers and who are not creating any real value in
return is long - the Environmental Management Agency, NOIC, Zinara, Zinwa, NSSA, the National Aids
Council, Zimtrade are all absorbing revenue and delivering very little. Instead they become mainly
concerned with making enough money to meet their inflated salaries and perks and enough surplus to
respond to the political machine when called upon to pay their dues.

Then there is the situation where the Police are being allowed to raise money from their operations
from fines other charges at road blocks. These are so routine, that they are accepted as the norm
here even though such activities are unheard of elsewhere. The cost of such a system must be
doubled or trebled to take account of corrupt activities.

This situation is now so serious that the regime can be described as a parasitic enterprise that is
so demanding that it is paralyzing all forms of economic activity. Decisions are not being taken on
key issues, demands for payments for all sorts of services are a daily occurrence. Can this system
be reformed - I doubt it, it has to be destroyed to bring us freedom and progress.

Written by a Zimbabwean in Harare.

[Firn]

Don’t mess with Grace Mugabe – she could be the next president of Zimbabwe (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/15/dont-mess-with-grace-mugabe-she-could-be-next-president-zimbabwe)


“I just wanted to ask you if it’s true you might like to be president one day,” I asked.

Her hard features, which can resemble a mask with striking dark eyes and sculpted cheekbones, dissolved into a laugh. She did not deny it. “I don’t know, I don’t know.”

Just then a band struck up and I beat a retreat, past the glares of South African protocol mandarins, one of whom ordered me to leave, snarling: “I hope we never see you again.”

It is important to keep in mind that one of the reasons behind the economic rise of the Western World was the increasingly powerful repression of rent seeking. Obviously it still exists as it is part of human and social nature.

[davidbfpo]

I wonder if the video (1:45 mins clip) was broadcast live or later in Zimbabwe.

The report starts with:
Robert Mugabe has been heckled in the Zimbabwean Parliament by opposition MPs.The 91-year-old was giving his first state of the nation address in eight years, and opposition MPs took the opportunity to boo and heckle the President.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/11825719/Robert-Mugabe-heckled-in-Zimbabwe-Parliament.html

Somehow I doubt this will replicate the downfall of a certain Rumanian presidnet many years ago.

[davidbfpo]

I had missed this announcement, as had my usual sources of news on Zimbabwe:
Use of the Zimbabwean dollar as an official currency was effectively abandoned on 12 April 2009. The Zimbabwean dollar is due to be demonetised (no longer legal tender) by the end of 2015The Zim $ has a really bad record see:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar

For some African farmers their former white owners have the answers :wry::https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/zimbabwe-seized-white-farmers-land-now-some-are-being-invited-back/2015/09/14/456f66d6-45d2-11e5-9f53-d1e3ddfd0cda_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_headlines

As tourists return to Victoria Falls, after a long absence, the cash registers "ring" and then:
..the government has slapped a 15% tax on accommodation occupied by foreigners..Link (with nice aerial clip):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34290827

Elsewhere I have seen reports of a swingeing import 40% tax being imposed on imported educational material, pl;us all books. "Get the cash" again.

The reporter lauds the extended runway and new terminal so enabling long range jets to land. Well in 1985 the runway was quite enough for Boeing 707s to happily land; yes the terminal was small and quaint - I was there.:)

Then President Robert Mugabe managed, even with his staff being diligent, to:
..read out the wrong speech at the opening of parliament.He gave the same one during his state-of-the-nation address on 25 August, when he was heckled by opposition MPs.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-34256898


Finally from The Zimbabwean Independent's Editor has a short explanation as to what has happened:
Robert Mugabe’s unpleasant experiences of late are increasingly signalling that the end of his imperial rule is nigh; his reign is likely to end in a disgraceful or tragic manner. The imminent endgame is bound to be dramatic.
Link: http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2015/09/18/mugabe-faces-disgraceful-exit/ (http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2015/09/18/mugabe-faces-disgraceful-exit/)
(http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2015/09/18/mugabe-faces-disgraceful-exit/)

[davidbfpo]

Via a Zimbabwean emailing:
Nairobi 15 October 2015
The bull in me has taken its leave. The domestic economic situation in Zimbabwe is beyond dire.
Structural unemployment (approx 90%) and non-existent growth (1-2% likely to be revised down) are the consequences of economic mismanagement and lack of policy formation. With 3 cabinet reshuffles
in 9 months, and almost $200mln (of a $3.1bln budget) being spent on the president´s office since the beginning of the year combined with wages at 80% of expenditure, it´s a wonder that there are
some who are looking past the risk and still investing in Zimbabwe.

In my recent trip I even came across samples of illiterate teenagers, these are the reverberations of the `lost decade´ (reference to the years of farm invasions and hyperinflation) whom the government has entirely failed to empower through insufficient educational policy. Gone is the status of highest education standards on the continent; O´ Level and A´ Level pass rates are a mere 20% and 10% respectively (down from 90% in 2000). One NGO doctor told our group that infant
mortality rates in Zimbabwe are the highest "outside a conflict zone", approximated at around 20%.

One in five kids fail to reach the age of one.

So who is to blame for the extended economic trough that Zimbabwe is in? Simply answered, the government. The state treasury issues short term securities, to accommodate its own spending, which sucks out dollars from the economy, this would explain rampant deflation (-3.11%) even the listed beverage blue-chip Delta has had to slash its prices by almost 25% as cash dries up. The funds accrued from taxes are turned over immediately to the civil service leaving little to actually
implement policy initiatives that provide the foundation for growth and employment. The government´s external debt ($9bln) is too high for the country to service especially as dollarisation erodes
competitiveness.

As long as the political power status quo remains, debt forgiveness on the whole is not a fathomable outcome, though it is one of few effective options for ending the rot - rescheduling in my view will do nothing and permit more graft. The country has recently seen some funds from the Eurozone and African Development bank and China keeps making promises, but these won't make a dent on the country´s outstanding liabilities. Zimbabwe has very few exports to speak of except platinum, gold, and tobacco - the diamond opportunity for now is lost, failing to raise the capex needed to dig deeper and extend mine life and production - this means the country´s current account deficit at
23% of GDP cannot be overcome. The country imports most industrial inputs as well consumer staples, erstwhile the land toils through another drought.

To add insult to injury the low levels in the Kariba dam mean electrical production is non-normal and more than half of every week in recent months is spent in darkness, which will likely trigger another downward revision in GDP estimates (Zambia is also suffering from the electrical
under-supply).

Dollarisation as is often argued was a short-term gift and a long-term curse - the short term benefits have been reaped, and now the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is toothless, as pure demand and supply will determine the inflow/outflow of hard currency - with no ability to set recognizable interest rates, recent dollar strength has added to Zimbabwe´s liquidity woes (compounded by falls in commodity prices). But in an effort to survive, either through brilliant delinquency or just a
complete lack of options, the government has found a way to increase the supply of a `money´ they do not own.

In striking similarity to Nigeria´s action in defending its banking industry in 2008/9, the RBZ set up ZAMCO (Zimbabwe Asset Management Company), its purpose to buy the bad loans using T-Bills...these are denominated in US Dollars as opposed Naira! By issuing T-Bills the government has been effectively printing US Dollar money and currently the total value issued sits at around U$1.2bln
(10% of GDP). A perspective is that the government has mortgaged Zimbabwe´s future. Add municipality and parastatal debt mainly owed to banks, that number balloons - anyone will tell you that the
higher the debt to GDP ratio the sharper the fall in output growth...and so perpetuating Zimbabwe´s demise.

The country has no capacity to recover even if it wanted to...the man on the street is over the politics and lives with the corruption and it has tainted the fabric of Zimbabwean society. Worse still, political succession is far from clear, there is no trust and an untarnished outsider may be the only option for a swift, policy driven recovery.

Negotiating terms with the IMF & World Bank in the present economic context is dangerous, because execution will undoubtedly miss its targets as we head toward the next election in 2018 - this will
set those relations backward another five years. I would contend the real change for growth has to be driven by both local and foreign elements, a fresh political policy thrust that builds a competent and actionable government which is actually interested in the welfare of the people it represents is needed - I reiterate that debt forgiveness, an injection of cash through FDI, are the only way Zimbabwe emerges from a dust that has settled and now hardened....but you already know
that.

[Firn]

A great summary, thanks for that email with some fact of which I wasn't aware of. Vastly more insightful then most you can find in articles like the following one (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/22/zimbabwe-to-make-chinese-yuan-legal-currency-after-beijing-cancels-debts).


Zimbabwe has announced that it will make the Chinese yuan legal tender after Beijing confirmed it would cancel $40m in debts.

“They [China] said they are cancelling our debts that are maturing this year and we are in the process of finalising the debt instruments and calculating the debts,” minister Patrick Chinamasa said in a statement.

I limit myself just to observation that $40m is astonishingly little for a country of it's population. Less so those 20 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=169671&postcount=349), but it gives you
just another of the many way to understand to which tiny size it's economy has collapsed.

[davidbfpo]

Well, well a reformed crocodile:
Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice-president widely viewed as Robert Mugabe’s likely heir, claims to have protected white farmers from eviction
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/12100022/Zimbabwes-Mnangagwa-reveals-secret-support-for-white-farmers.html

A reminder Comrade Robert marks his 92nd birthday next month:
Mr Mugabe is currently on holiday with his family in east Asia, his office said.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35308230

[davidbfpo]

Incredible and not what either Zimbabwe, or Zambia needs now:
...the energy minister of Zambia declared that Kariba Dam, which straddles the border between his country and Zimbabwe, holding back the world’s largest reservoir, was in “dire” condition. An unprecedented drought threatens to shut down the dam’s power production, which supplies nearly half the nation’s electricity.

(Later) Kariba’s difficulties are more complicated. It has been nearly incapacitated by ongoing drought, which has lowered the reservoir’s volume to twelve per cent of its usual capacity. But if the reservoir is refilled, the dam faces the possibility of collapse. It was built in the late nineteen-fifties, and in the years since water flowing through the dam’s six floodgates has carved a three-hundred-foot-deep pit, or plunge pool, at its base. The plunge pool extends to within a hundred and thirty feet of the dam’s foundation; if it reaches the foundation, the dam will collapse.Link:http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/one-of-africas-biggest-dams-is-falling-apart?

A drought emergency in Zimbabwe:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35500820

[davidbfpo]

Classic, sad report; the title is followed by a sub-title:
Zimbabwean president marks 92nd birthday with $800,000 celebration in area where 75% of staple maize crop failed
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/robert-mugabe-eats-giant-cake-92nd-birthday-party-in-drought-zone

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c6c427c96853dae2be98afcb90b04ed8f1399ee5/0_71_1500_900/master/1500.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&

[davidbfpo]

A rather dense article by a Zimbabwe watcher on a previously unknown interview last month of President Robert Mugabe, only partly cited:
So where have our gold or carats been going? – the gems, and there has been quite a lot of secrecy in handling them and we have been blinded ourselves. That is our people who we expected to be our eyes and our ears have not been able to see or hear what was going on and lots of swindling, smuggling has taken place and companies that have been mining virtually I want to say robbed us of our wealth and that is why we have decided that this area should be a monopoly area and only the state should be able to do the mining in that area.In brief by the author:
If there is ever a scandal that should see Robert Mugabe leave office sooner rather than later, it’s his disclosure that the country was bilked of fifteen billion dollars ($15 billion United States Dollars) over the last seven or so years or so under his watch.Link to the story published 14th March 2016:http://www.thezimbabwean.co/2016/03/yamamoto-president-bob-must-be-fired/

IIRC the cited newspaper is web-based and published outside Zimbabwe.

Who were the "eyes and ears"? Well the robbers include the army, the police, the CIO (intelligence agency), ministers, Chinese friends and more.

[Firn]

Zimbabwe Introduces New Currency, Angering Everyone (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-05/-zombie-currency-printed-by-zimbabwe-draws-scorn-from-critics)


“It’s zombie money, made from nothing,” said Fredmore Kupirwa, who sells sodas, canned food and corn meal from his shop in Mvurwi, a town north of the capital, Harare. Kupirwa said he needs to pay some cross-border suppliers in dollars. “I must pay them in dollars, but if my customers are paying me in this stupid currency, how can I re-stock?”


Hard to argue with that good man. Of course the deposits of the common man will be forced to convert in various ways. It is just sad to see blow after blow hammering the almost-dead economy of Zimbabwe.

[davidbfpo]

A good explanation of the power struggle in Zimbabwe:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/13/old-rivals-new-threats-how-will-zimbabwe-fare-post-mugabe

Interesting that the release of government records in the UK, USA and Australia, may have an impact.

[davidbfpo]

Via a newsletter on Zimbabwe:
In the second week of May, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that up to 4.5 million people - half of Zimbabwe's drought-stricken rural population - will need aid by March 2017. A few weeks before the UN launched an appeal for $360 million to provide life-saving assistance for more than three million people. The UN Resident Coordinator for Zimbabwe said at the end of May that $70 million has been received, leaving a gap of $290 million.

Meanwhile the country director of the UN World Food Programme, pointed out that Zimbabwe´s 2016 maize production forecast would fall below 60% of the five-year average. Zimbabwe's average harvest in the last five years has been between 700,000 and 1 5 million tonnes, against annual consumption of between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes, he said. An El Nino-induced drought has hit southern Africa and cut the output of the staple maize crop. In March, the government said 4 million Zimbabweans required food aid, almost 30% of the national population.

The majority of Zimbabweans still live in the countryside, even though large numbers have moved to the cities.

Is this a pre-revolutionary time?

[Firn]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

[davidbfpo]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

Firn,

I would agree, but this report suggests that this time could be different and the key point is in bold:
A general strike paralysed Zimbabwe on Wednesday as shops and businesses shut down, public transport came to a halt and children were turned away from school......A spiralling economic crisis means that Zimbabwe has run out of money. The regime can no longer pay civil servants or teachers and strict limits have been imposed on the amount that ordinary people can withdraw from bank accounts......In the past, Mr Mugabe, 92, would simply order the Reserve Bank to print money whenever his coffers were empty. But the worst hyperinflation in history forced Zimbabwe to abandon its national currency in 2009. The country now uses the US dollar – which Mr Mugabe cannot print.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/zimbabwe-paralysed-by-general-strike-as-mugabe-runs-out-of-money/

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

[davidbfpo]

Professor Stephen Chan is a SME on Zimbabwe and has an article on the visit to the City of London this week by Zimbabwe's Finance Minister:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015? (https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20 for%20July%207%202016%20-%205188&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20f or%20July%207%202016%20-%205188+CID_f614f8afd09fdbe56b50c835a3e79ebd&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=In%20Zimbabwe%20national%20integrity%20is %20measured%20only%20in%20terms%20of%20property%20 and%20capital)

A reminder of the position:
Zimbabwe has no money, and its government has no fiscal plan. Its reserves are emptied, tax revenues are inadequate, public funds are still ransacked, and much of the country’s remaining formal employment is in an unproductive public service.

(Later) But Mugabe is simply not trusted by the rest of the world, and he dares not mandate a change to the indigenisation law – especially not now, as his health declines and as he perhaps secretly looks to secure his wife’s path to succeed him. Indigenisation was meant to placate Zimbabwean nationalism, which still percolates among younger generations as well as older ones.

[Firn]

Good reads. The day will come when power changes hands. Without a widely shared, supported, clear and hardly disputed way as in a modern democracy this is bound to create great tensions and potential violent conflict as has been seen time and time again. Especially so as in a state like Zimbabwe the winner may take almost all while the losers may lose all, including it's life.

Economic actors without political backing might suffer greatly in such a conflict as their wealth is some of the increasingly spare capital available for the rent seeking. Land is one of the most important assets which remains in a starved economy and it's allocation may be crucial to secure political support. That will be another heavy blow for the economy and the hungry masses but might be seen as key to take political control...

[davidbfpo]

Two articles, one an analysis and the second a tale of high-level antics.

The first, in a South African blog and I noted these two points:
A lot depends on whether the army gets paid or not on FridayThen following "family first" for President Mugabe:
his closest family, including wife Grace Mugabe, are currently in Singapore.Link:http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-07-14-analysis-zimbabwe-where-does-thisflag-go-from-here/

The police arrest two suspects for corruption and who arives at the police station demanding their release, which is recorded by hand in the record books? The Vice President!
Link:https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/07/15/vp-mphoko-sucked-zinara-storm/

[davidbfpo]

A week ago I asked:
When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

According to this report:
Zimbabwe has failed to pay the army on time for the second straight month, military sources said on Friday
Link:http://nehandaradio.com/2016/07/16/zimbabwe-fails-pay-army-2nd-month/

They appear to be a Zimbabwe based radio station.

[davidbfpo]

I missed the reporting last week that the veterans of the liberation struggle, who were used to often violently evict 'commercial' or white farmers a few years ago, had issued a statement against President Mugabe:
We note, with concern, shock and dismay, the systematic entrenchment of dictatorial tendencies, personified by the president and his cohorts, which have slowly devoured the values of the liberation struggle...We are dismayed by the president's tendency to indulge, in his usual vitriol against perceived enemies, including peaceful protesters, as well as war veterans, when the economy is on its knees," the veterans' association's statement said. "He has a lot to answer for the serious plight of the national economy.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36860159

Yesterday President Mugabe made his reaction clear:
Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him.
At a rally of his Zanu-PF party supporters and veterans who remain loyal to him, Mr Mugabe also urged the veterans to choose new leaders.
He blamed the West for splits in the veterans' association. 'Once we find out who wrote that statement, the party will punish them. "During the war we had rebels who we punished... some by detaining them underground, feeding them there'.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36906732

Today the BBC reports
Zimbabwe’s war veterans’ spokesman, Douglas Mahiya, has been arrested. He was taken into custody on Wednesday, the day President Robert Mugabe threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him. Mr Mahiya, along with about 150 others, attended the meeting of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association which came up with the communique accusing Mr Mugabe of being dictatorial and egotistical.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36685940

[davidbfpo]

In Post 365 I cited Professor Stephen Chan and today's email contained a link to a very pessimistic Q&A with him:https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2016/08/10/change-will-come-from-zanu-pf

[davidbfpo]

Hello and welcome to the program Hot Seat, my name is Violet Gonda. In our 2nd episode of this new series we talk to Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association spokesman Douglas Mahiya, who was arrested last week following the release of a damning communiqu which described President Robert Mugabe as a genocidal dictator and urged the 92 year old leader to leave office.There is a podcast and a transcript:http://www.violetgonda.com/hot-seat/hot-seat-interview-with-war-vet-leader-douglas-mahiya/

[davidbfpo]

An interesting commentary on two issues: the situation in Zimbabwe and the potential for social media to educate and mobilize the "masses".

A stinging sentence on the regime:
..a political regime which has decayed and only exists to profiteer on people’s taxes, literally — if you doubt this profiteering, witness a first lady who spends US$1,35 million on a ring which is the equivalent of paying for close to 200 nurses’ salaries for a whole year.Here is a SM passage:
Let us be real here: the teenager is likely to read H-Metro, watch YouTube videos, spend time on Facebook, or follow Twitter debates and know more about “Stunner and Olinda“ or “Andy and Bev”. This is the generation that will vote, it has no time for rallies, for polemic political essays, newspapers and research papers; it is the selfie-obsessed narcissistic generation and they consume news in sound-bites not rumbling speeches done by old pot-bellied men.Link:https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/02/10/thisflag-tajamuka-zims-democratic-counter-narratives/

[davidbfpo]

This thread in the Historian arena sadly explains much of what has happened in Zimbabwe:Mugabe-style COIN: Gukurahundi (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/Mugabe-style COIN: Gukurahundi)

From the author, Stuart Doran of a book on that theme cited there:
And yet Mugabe and Zanu-PF have clung tenaciously to the fantasy of perpetual, total domination. It is for this reason, more than any other, that Zimbabwe remains trapped in a sterile cycle of conflict and subjugation.

[BayonetBrant]

https://zimbabwe-today.com/rhodesians-must-come-back-rebuild-zimbabwe-war-vets-say/

[davidbfpo]

Last week's post was surprising enough, with war veterans once again showing their opposition to Robert Mugabe. now a potentially more dangerous "shot across the bows" and the BBC's headline:
Zimbabwe military chief Chiwenga in Zanu-PF purge warningSo what did he say, with ninety senior officers standing with him?
The current purging, which is clearly targeting members of the party with a liberation background, must stop forthwith....We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that when it comes to matters of protecting our revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41970317

Whether the leadership are true to the revolution is a moot point, perhaps they also fear for their wealth from the younger generation.

[AdamG]

A coup is reportedly under way in Zimbabwe, with reports on social media claiming that the head of Zimbabwe military Constantino Chiwenga has given President Robert Mugabe 24 hours to vacate office after sacking his vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa.

https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/live-coup-under-way-in-zimbabwe-20171114

[davidbfpo]

So far we have reports on a few APC moving along a traditional route and one broke down. If this was a coup it is hardly significant, as a signal it might resonate.

The ZNA are very unlikely IMHO to be seen as "friends of the people", given their role in suppressing protests and their leader's enrichment. Is this just another episode in the competition for power? As this BBC News item suggests:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41984813

[AdamG]

A witness who spoke to Reuters saw two tanks* parked up on the main road from Harare to Chinhoyi, about 20 km (14 miles) from the city. Social Media has seen ambiguous photos of military personnel making their way to the Capital.
The strong show of force comes just a day after the armed forces said they would step in ‘if Mugabe was to dismiss any further army officials’. The fired Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa shares a very cosy relationship with the army, and it seems like they are throwing their support behind him following his dismissal.

https://www.thesouthafrican.com/watch-tanks-occupy-harare-roads-in-potential-coup-attempt/

* Actually, Chinese-made APCs.

Looks like a Type 89/90 ARV (six road wheels, boom crane & box body rear hull) towing the Type YW309 APC (http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/coldwar/China/type-85-89-AFV.php). Even coin toss between a vehicle recovery mission and an actual road movement, given where we're talking about.
https://i.imgur.com/q6G2EZ2.jpg

[Azor]

https://apnews.com/91bb7f9b5f2f4d00bd428d50fdc51f7f/The-Latest:-UK-tells-citizens-in-Zimbabwe-to-stay-indoors?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

TRUNCATED

5:50 a.m.


Zimbabwe’s army urges other security services to “cooperate for the good of our country,” warning that “any provocation will be met with an appropriate response.”

The statement read out early Wednesday on state-run television calls on troops to return to barracks immediately, with all leave canceled.

It says that if the country’s degenerating political, social and economic situation is not addressed, it “may result in a violent conflict.”

The army insists that this is not a military takeover and that President Robert Mugabe’s security is guaranteed.


4:55 a.m.


Zimbabwe’s army has announced that “this is not a military takeover” and that President Robert Mugabe and his family are safe and sound.

“We are only targeting criminals around who him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice,” the army announced on state-run media.

The army statement says that “as soon as we have accomplished our mission, we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.”

[davidbfpo]

A curious event in Harare, the army say we have moved, Robert Mugabe and family are safe and sounds of artillery fire in the north of the city. This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and the dismissed Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly back in town. With the Presidential Guard still on duty.

BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41992351

A running story:https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/nov/15/zimbabwe-army-control-harare-coup-robert-mugabe-live

[AdamG]

This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and etc & etc
http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/07/07d47b2227f592e9e53bbfe1fea7c0da1192205fb254416b66 b1a80d0c25620f.jpg

Because all bloodless transitions of power are punctuated by High Explosives.

From the AP updates -


HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) --
6:50 a.m.
The Zimbabwe army's takeover of the state broadcaster and action against some members of President Robert Mugabe's government has been praised by the chairman of the Liberation War Veterans' Association.
Chris Mutsvangwa, head of the war veterans' group issued a statement from Johannesburg praising Army General Constantino Chiwenga for carrying out "a bloodless correction of gross abuse of power." The statement said the army will return Zimbabwe to "genuine democracy."

Quack


Opposition leader Tendai Biti told Sky News a transitional authority is needed to secure a road map to democracy.
He said: "If it flaps like a duck, waggles like a duck, then it's a duck. This is a coup, there's no question about that.
"We condemn the extra-legal extraction of power from an elected civilian authority, but having said that we must acknowledge the deep structural underlying causes that would have led the army to do what they are doing now, whether it's pacification or whatever lipstick or mascara they might want to put on (it).
"This is Robert Mugabe's Waterloo and he must accept that. I pray the army do not harm him, I pray that they give him free passage if he wants to leave Zimbabwe."
https://news.sky.com/story/military-vehicles-heading-towards-zimbabwe-capital-amid-political-purge-11126302

[AdamG]

Nothing to see here. Stop reading now. Move along.

South Africa’s Ruling ANC Says Wont Intervene In Zimbabwe [totally not a] Coup
https://www.pazimbabwe.com/world-news-43080-south-africas-ruling-anc-says-wont-intervene-in-zimbabwe-coup.html

[davidbfpo]

It has been a long time since Zimbabwe has been on the front page of UK papers, even the free ones and often the lead item on TV news. So looking around I found these articles that help to explain what happened and why.

An academic background paper on the Zimbabwe military and their commercial activity - copied from China: 'The Curse of Military Commercialism in State Enterprises and Parastatals in Zimbabwe'.
Link:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2016.1145981

By an American academic @ Edinburgh University: 'Mugabe's fall from grace unlikely to end Zimbabwe's political infighting and economic decay' and sub-titled The outlook in the breadbasket of southern Africa looks far from rosy with a leadership new in name alone.
Link:https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/mugabe-s-fall-from-grace-unlikely-to-end-zimbabwe-s-political-infighting-and-economic-decay-1.676238

Self-explanatory and short via WaPo: 'To understand the coup in Zimbabwe, you need to know about Grace Mugabe' by a Zimbabwean in exile.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/15/to-understand-the-coup-in-zimbabwe-you-need-to-know-more-about-grace-mugabe/

Another author in exile: 'Power to the party: Zimbabwe’s coup isn’t a revolution but a consolidation'. This ends with the best summary I read today:
What has happened in the past two weeks, and has come to fruition in the past 48 hours, is ultimately an internal adjustment. From the perspective of ZANU-PF, an immature and greedy challenger has now been silenced by the adults in the room. This is no revolution giving the power to the people. The army has done its duty in giving the power back to the Party.
Link:http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/16/power-to-the-party-zimbabwe-coup-isnt-a-revolution-but-a-consolidation/?

[AdamG]

One of the generals behind the move, army chief Constantino Chiwenga, visited Beijing last week — just days before tanks rolled into the streets of Harare.

China, which has enjoyed a close diplomatic and economic relationship with Zimbabwe for years, says Chiwenga’s visit was routine and part of a "normal military exchange.”

Asked if Chiwenga had briefed China on coup plans, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang would not discuss specifics.

Miles Blessing Tendi, a lecturer in African history and politics at the University of Oxford, says there is no way to be certain if China knew about Mugabe's fate but believes China's respect for sovereignty would make their involvement uncharacteristic.

“Above all else [China] wants stability, and a coup is a recipe for instability. So this does not sound like a Chinese move," Tendi said. "Something like this is always going to be held in secret talks. No one is going to come out and confirm it, so we may never know for sure."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/zimbabwe-crisis-did-china-have-hand-military-plot-against-mugabe-n821286

[davidbfpo]

Below is a link to mainly academic community outlet 'The Conversation' with a number of new SME articles and few from the archive.

Professor Chan comments on the PRC link:
It is no coincidence that General Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwe army chief, was visiting China when Mnangagwa was booted out. It seems likely that Chiwenga discussed his plan to intervene with the Chinese. Having supported and trained Mugabe’s rebel liberation army in the late 1970s and helped finance the country’s grossly mismanaged economy, Bejing must be relieved at the prospect of a return to actual economic management.
Link:https://theconversationuk.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/r/3AAD8F6F628E49DB2540EF23F30FEDED/5B01FD22EF1B644C765E7602346EC846

[AdamG]

Though the military that seized control after rolling out the tanks in the early hours of Wednesday was at pains to portray its takeover as anything but a coup, the reality is that the generals are now calling the shots. Troops are deployed on the streets of the capital, Harare, and at key security points, including the airport, only last week renamed the Robert Mugabe International Airport by a state apparatus that had one eye on a post-Mugabe era.What one observer called a “slow motion coup” is now playing out in Zimbabwe as the armed forces, led by General Constantino Chiwenga, seek to ease out the old regime and bring in something new. They are trying to do so in a manner that is palatable to regional powers, particularly South Africa, which have made clear they do not consider military coups an acceptable form of regime change.

https://www.ft.com/content/956bd71e-cb86-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

[davidbfpo]

Yes the competition for power appears to be over who sits in the chair and nearby - within ZANU-PF - and somehow party branches, including the Women's League (previously Grace Mugabe's fiefdom) have called upon Robert Mugabe to stand down.

This could far more significant, especially if there are really free & fair elections:
They make up a majority of Zimbabweans, with around three-quarters of the population under 35 years old today, and have borne the worst brunt of years of economic mismanagement.Millions of high-school and university graduates produced by one of Africa’s best education systems have sought work abroad as industry collapsed and inflation sky-rocketed. Others struggle to make ends meet with menial or manual piecemeal labour that makes no use of their skills.
The unexpected ousting (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/zimbabwe-military-claims-progress-in-takeover-talks) of a man whose rule seemed like it would never end has brought the first glimpse of hope in years to many of them.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/18/generation-mugabe-he-has-normalised-the-abnormal

[davidbfpo]

I have just listened to Robert Mugabe's TV broadcast, where he did not resign; so one must wonder why the saviours of the nation / party let him do this. Everyone knows he is an old man and has had better days. The broadcast ended with some mumbles not normally broadcast.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-42046831/mugabe-addresses-the-nation

The accompanying BBC report refers to:
In a live TV address, Mr Mugabe said he would preside over the ruling party's congress in December.The Zanu-PF earlier sacked him as party leader, and gave him less than 24 hours to resign as president or be impeached.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42046911


Via Twitter one of the BBC's correspondents:
So what now? The war veterans threatened more protests, the party threatened to impeach him, if he didn't step down... And yet the generals went along with tonight's long-winded, wordy display of studied ambiguity.
As for the most likely current successor BBC Radio Four has a short profile of the 'Crocodile' and one Tweet sums it up:
In Emmerson Mnangagwa you are going to get a man leading Zimbabwe who is as horrendous as Robert Mugabe if not worseLink to programme:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09fj3xh

[davidbfpo]

Well after a hectic few days President Robert Mugabe has resigned, after his own once loyal party, ZANU-PF, disowned him and impeachment by parliament was in prospect.
The BBC has multiple stories:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42071488

Now will ZANU-PF hold onto power or share it meaningfully? Time will tell and for once Zimbabweans are optimistic. One exile I know simply said it would be a long time before their family returned - there are millions abroad, notably in South Africa.

So after a long run, this thread started in March 2017, with 387 posts and 139k views, I have merged the current thread into this and will open a new thread Zimbabwe: after Mugabe resigns.