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Jedburgh
03-07-2007, 04:09 AM
ICG, 5 Mar 07: Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate? (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/southern_africa/zimbabweendstalemate.pdf)

...The long political stalemate in Zimbabwe appears to be breaking at last. ZANU-PF moderates are jockeying to nominate a Mugabe successor to take office in 2008. Sanctions and general economic problems are building the domestic constituency for change. The MDC and civil society are rallying around economic and governance issues to unite opposition activists and plan larger non-violent resistance activities aimed at producing free and fair elections under a new constitution. Western pressure, particularly targeted sanctions and diplomatic isolation, is making a contribution. SADC leaders have an opportunity to talk to Mugabe now about a retirement package to be implemented not later than when his term expires in 2008 – and at last get him to listen....

Tom Odom
03-23-2007, 07:12 PM
Mugabe: 'Little fellows' like Bush, Blair don't scare me (http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/03/23/zimbabwe.reut/index.html)
HARARE, Zimbabwe (Reuters) -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe vowed on Friday to survive any Western attempt to dislodge him from power.

Mugabe said Britain and the United States would never overcome the support he enjoys in his ruling ZANU-PF party, which led the former Rhodesia to black majority rule in 1980.

"Nothing frightens me, not even little fellows like Bush and Blair. I have seen it all, I don't fear any suffering or a struggle of any kind," Mugabe, 83, said to cheers from ZANU-PF supporters at a meeting in Harare.

"I make a stand and stand on principle here where I was born, here where I grew up, here where I fought and here where I shall die," Mugabe said, accusing the West of sponsoring the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to overthrow his government.

Theater of the absurd in Zimbabwe is apparently in high gear...

tequila
03-23-2007, 11:52 PM
Interesting that Mugabe is calling in Angolans (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article1550900.ece)to do his dirty work. Perhaps some real fractures are appearing in ZANU-PF and, most importantly, the Zimbabwean security services?

davidbfpo
03-24-2007, 11:14 AM
This morning the BBC Radio Four news reported conversations between the opposition (MDC) and former security force commanders once loyal to the government (ZANU-PF) on managing the succession.

I suspect this is wishful thinking, or a ploy by the CIO (Zimbabwe's state security). President Mugabe is ruthless.

No-one is likely to intervene, let alone with military force; once again Zimbabwe is being left to resolve it's own problems. Zimbabwe's neighbours are too committed to Mugabe, for historical reasons, comradeship notably in the struggle, to realise their national interest is NOT to see Zimbabwe in ruins.

Mark O'Neill
03-24-2007, 11:29 AM
Interesting that Mugabe is calling in Angolans (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article1550900.ece)to do his dirty work. Perhaps some real fractures are appearing in ZANU-PF and, most importantly, the Zimbabwean security services?

Good Call, and in my opinion, spot on.

He hasn't paid the security forces enough to keep up with the burlesque levels of inflation that the country has recently witnessed, I believe that the loyalties of the police and militray are switching to 'new' ZANU-PF contenders.

The use of the Angolans has echoes of the use of the Korean trained (backed) 5th brigade in the brutal supression of Matabeleland after independence. It worked once....

davidbfpo
03-24-2007, 11:30 AM
This week there have reports, including the BBC, that Angola was sending 2500 para-military police, known as the Ninjas, to Zimbabwe as fraternal assistance.

Now the Angolans have issued a denial:

The Angolan government has issued a categorical denial of this story.
It's being suggested that the source of the story was a recent arrangement
for Angola to train Zimbabwe police. Itself an interesting story. Both Reuters and the BBC carried stories about the denial:
http://africa.reuters.com/top/news/usnBAN324378.html and
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6479371.stm

There is also a report of the Zimbabwean Vice-President having a secret meeting in Johannesburg with her South African opposite number; the Vice President's husband is a former Zimbabwe Defence Force commander.

Murky business.

Jedburgh
06-14-2007, 09:36 PM
BBC, 14 Jun 07: Zimbabwe 'collapse in six months' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6751671.stm)

Zimbabwe will collapse within six months, possibly leading to a state of emergency, says a leaked briefing report for aid workers in the country.
Rampant inflation will mean shops and services can no longer function and people would resort to barter, it said.

"The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown," an unnamed aid worker told the UK Times.

Zimbabwe's inflation is already 3,714% - the highest rate in the world....

SteveMetz
06-14-2007, 09:38 PM
ICG, 5 Mar 07: Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate? (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/southern_africa/zimbabweendstalemate.pdf)


I don't know if you have to be a subscriber to access it, but I'm at this very minute reading a good article on Zimbabwe in the Weekly Standard (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/746zsgtg.asp).

That place breaks my heart. Sweetest people I've ever met. And one psychopath is crushing it.

Steve Blair
06-15-2007, 02:01 AM
It's open access, Steve. And a fine article as well. Good link!

Tom Odom
06-15-2007, 02:06 PM
I don't know if you have to be a subscriber to access it, but I'm at this very minute reading a good article on Zimbabwe in the Weekly Standard (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/746zsgtg.asp).

That place breaks my heart. Sweetest people I've ever met. And one psychopath is crushing it.

Yep and truly a garden of plenty driven to starvation through mind-numbing stupidity.

Tom

Jedburgh
08-24-2007, 02:30 PM
The Economist, 23 Aug 07: Zimbabwe: An Imploding State (http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9689181&top_story=1)

Over 3m people are thought to have left the Zimbabwe in recent years, and the UN refugee agency says it is working on contingency plans in case the exodus worsens. There seems every chance that it will, given 80% unemployment, inflation that was said officially this week to be above 7,600% and severe shortages of the most basic goods. Zimbabwe’s situation is growing ever more miserable.

Another UN agency, the World Food Programme, reckons that 4m Zimbabweans—about one-third of the remaining population—will need food aid by next year. This year’s harvest of maize, the local staple, was meagre. Rains have been poor, and the government’s disastrous land-reform programme has turned once flourishing commercial farming into subsistence agriculture....

Tom Odom
02-13-2008, 02:26 PM
Just some tidbits on Zimbabwe, once a breathtakingly beautiful country, and now another on the long list of African failed or failing states:


Zimbabwe's ruling party ousts Mugabe challenger (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/02/12/zimbabwe.mugabe.challenger/index.html)

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's ruling party on Tuesday expelled former Finance Minister Simba Makoni because of his bid to unseat President Robert Mugabe, whom he blames for the country's economic collapse.

Don't Miss
Mugabe's ex-finance minister to run against him (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/02/05/zimbabwe/index.html)
Zimbabwe's inflation tops 24,000 percent (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/02/01/zimbabwe.inflation.ap/index.html)

Grasping what 24,000 percent inflation rate means is difficult:



Zimbabwe's disposable currency (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/08/06/100156744/index.htm)
Once one of the most prosperous countries in Africa, Zimbabwe seems to be nearing economic collapse.
By Sheridan Prasso, Fortune contributing editor
August 6 2007: 11:56 AM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- What does it feel like to hold a few million dollars in your hands? If you're in Zimbabwe, like this worker, and your wages are in Zimbabwean dollars, not very good. With hyperinflation running at 4,500 percent on an annual basis, all his cash is worth less than $100.

Once one of the most prosperous countries in Africa, Zimbabwe seems to be nearing economic collapse. Unemployment is estimated at 80 percent. Electricity has been rationed to just four hours a day. A loaf of bread costs 44,000 Zimbabwean dollars, about 18 cents at black-market exchange rates - or $176 at the official rate.

Stan and I witnessed this sort of thing in Zaire/Congo. Stan had the greater exposure to the decline of Zaire from 1984 to 1994. But for the average Westerner it is difficult to understand just how unhinged everything becomes. Money is for all rationale purposes worthless--yet folks are out there scrambling to make enough for that loaf of bread. Meanwhile the real economy goes under ground using goods, services, and often foreign currency to get by. Diamonds and gold were the hidden currency in Zaire in the mid-90s; I doubt that has changed much. I do not know what serves as the hidden currency in Zimbabwe.

Tom

Stan
02-13-2008, 05:14 PM
Great post, Tom !
My singular visit to Zimbabwe via Lubumbashi was a food run for the Consulate. Great steaks, cheap prices and wonderful Aussie accents! Even then in 86, rough cut stones (purportedly from Zaire’s southern province) and lots of malachite could be had in the markets, but only in exchange for hard currencies.

Rates of Exchange (ROE) (DIA adopted that acronym from Rules of Engagement, which actually means the same thing): When I arrived in Zaire, the official ROE was 50 Makutas (one half of a Zaire, or 50 cents if you will) to one USD, and the black market rate (directly in front of the US Embassy and known as Wall Street) was 25 to 28 Zaires to one USD.

When I departed in late 94 the rates were more than 5 million Zaires to one USD :eek:

In order to eat in any restaurant, one would need a briefcase. Most of us paid in USD or held a credit account til the end of the month.

Grocery stores did not post prices on the shelves. The value of your purchase was calculated during the arduous process of ringing up your total.

I think Zimbabwe is in for a rough ride, but could they handle the depth and finesse of professional corruption that Zairians invented/perfected :cool:

davidbfpo
02-13-2008, 10:28 PM
I visited Zimbabwe in 1985, on a research holiday and was impressed at it's natural and human resources. Sadly it has slipped away, largely due to a regime that is interested in clinging to power and having all the "cake". For many years I've been a member of a friendship group, which originally was dominated by ZANU PF sympathisers - who now are very quiet or gone. Their email circulars are often too sad to read, notably the on the ground reports by a long time resident Jesuit priest.

No wonder so many have left the country in the last decade, with an alleged 300k in the UK alone and far more in South Africa.

davidbfpo

Chris Albon
02-14-2008, 03:00 AM
No wonder so many have left the country in the last decade, with an alleged 300k in the UK alone and far more in South Africa.

I can personally attest to this. My family is from Zimbabwe. Every one of my family members has fled Zim, the last being my grandmother who fled to England a year or two ago.

Just to give you some perspective: For a few years calling her was hit or miss because people were stealing the copper telephone wires.

SWCAdmin
02-14-2008, 02:18 PM
Every once in a while, when I contemplate the price of cars these days, I flash back to watching the Price is Right and wondering whether the price (4 digit) of the car would start with a 3 or a 4. Wow.

Then I think of Zaire and it puts it back in perspective. I wandered through in 92 or 93, just when the 5 million Z note was coming out, which was an issue in its own right. The Marine Det fronted me $50 in local sheckles. I was there for 3 days, spent nothing. Gave them back the same amount of sheckles, plus a check for about $19 I think to make up for the depreciation of the cash during the short time I held it.

One of the local semi-American guys, late 20s / early 30s maybe, told me he could remember as a kid his mom giving him 1 Z, then worth $2, and he could live large and go get a full-on burger, fries, etc. It was something for him to look at a 5 million Z note and not be able to even get a burger with it.

Stan
02-14-2008, 08:10 PM
Every once in a while, when I contemplate the price of cars these days...

Then I think of Zaire and it puts it back in perspective...

Bill, I had no idea you visited our tiny community. I'd assume you were not a DIA visitor, or, I was once again out of town.

With your nostalgic post, here's some pics to reminisce :D

Tom Odom
02-14-2008, 08:39 PM
Man those must be mint 50 Makuta's

Let's see 100 Makuta to a Zaire and 5 Million Zaires to a dollar, that means they were worth 1/500 Million of a dollar....

Anybody got change for a 50 Makuta?

Stan
02-14-2008, 08:55 PM
Man those must be mint 50 Makuta's

Remember how they wrapped 25 notes together using the 25th like a taco around the other 24 ? I had a stack of those and never once handled, intent on creating a new Monopoly game called Zaire in Maryland :D. That idea never really took hold, but my sister, a MD banker showed her friends my 84 funny money. Later some of those people fired up a website and posted all that Sierra there. I must have sent them everything I ever found in Zaire.

Good stuff, aye !
EDIT: Best thing about this Mo Money is the serial number is only on one side. The scans are actually two bills:cool:

carl
02-15-2008, 02:35 AM
They still use the 25th bill to wrap the other 24. The franc seems quite stable now. The two years I was there it stayed around 500 to $1 and now (i just checked) it is 437 to $1.

I talked to pilot once who used to haul money for Mobutu. They would leave Kin empty and go to Brazil non-stop. On the return they had to make a fuel stop because the DC-8 was so heavily loaded with paper money. The next stop was Gbadolite to give the old man his cut, then on to Kin with the rest.

Tom Odom
02-20-2008, 02:13 PM
Dying Silently In Zimbabwe (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/19/AR2008021902337.html)By Michael Gerson


...This kind of hyperinflation is rare in history, but we are seeing it once again, in Zimbabwe. Government officials claim an inflation rate of 66,212 percent (most months they refuse to release inflation figures at all). The International Monetary Fund believes the rate is closer to 150,000 percent -- about the level reached by Weimar Germany. By some estimates, about 50 percent of Zimbabwe's government revenue comes from the printing of money. At independence in 1980, the Zimbabwean dollar was worth more than one U.S. dollar. Recently, the state-controlled newspaper raised its cover price to 3 million Zimbabwean dollars. Two pounds of chicken were recently reported to cost about 15 million Zimbabwean dollars.

A Zimbabwean friend who runs a business recently told me, "If you don't get a bill collected in 48 hours, it isn't worth collecting, because it is worthless. Whenever we get money, we must immediately spend it, just go and buy what we can. Our pension was destroyed ages ago. None of us have any savings left." Zimbabwean nationals who work on the U.S. Embassy staff in Harare have seen all their retirement funds wiped out. American government officials in the country carry boxes of money to pay at restaurants and must begin counting out currency at the beginning of the meal to finish by its end.

short but interesting piece; the real currency of power comes from gold and platimum and land sales to the Chinese and Libyans.

Tom

Tom Odom
02-25-2008, 04:17 PM
And stretching for good news:


Zimbabwe is rare bright spot for AIDS in southern Africa (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/goodnews/story/18827.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe — In southern Africa for the past two decades, casual sex helped to fuel the worst epidemics of HIV and AIDS in the world. In Zimbabwe, however, fewer people are taking chances anymore, making this otherwise beleaguered nation an unlikely bright spot in Africa's battle against AIDS...

...Experts suggest that sex has become another casualty of the country's eight-year economic depression, which has shrunk the economy by nearly half. Few men have the money to support extramarital affairs or, for bachelors, the late nights on the town often required to woo a woman.

"You have to spend to get sex," said Richard Chimbiri, who writes a column on HIV for the Financial Gazette, an independent newsweekly. "Some guys would have four or five girlfriends if they could. But the economic situation and the risk of HIV — it's all conspiring to make people change their attitudes."

Tom Odom
03-06-2008, 02:11 PM
This is no longer "runaway" inflation--it is Zimbabwe's economy in return to earth orbit without heat shields.



$1 now equals 25,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/05/zimbabwe.money.ap/index.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- It's easy being a multmillionaire in Zimbabwe these days, at least if you're counting in local dollars.

Money traders in the economically depressed African country say the Zimbabwe currency has tumbled to a record low of 25 million for a single U.S. dollar.

With Zimbabwe dollars mostly available in bundles of 100,000 and 200,000 notes, one $100 note bought nearly 20 kilograms (40 pounds) of local notes at the new market rate Wednesday.

Currency dealers said uncertainties ahead of elections scheduled March 29 and the world's highest inflation of 100,500 percent led holders of hard currency to hang on to their money at the same time as the state central bank pumped more local cash into the market for election costs.

The price of the U.S. currency was also pushed up by central bank buying on the unofficial market to pay for power, gasoline and vehicle imports ahead of the polling, said one black market dealer who could not be identified out of fear of reprisals.


Last week saw Mugabe's 84th Birthday so he threw a party:


Mugabe ready to party in impoverished Zimbabwe (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/02/22/mugabe.birthday/index.html)


HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- As many as 10,000 people were converging on a town in southern Zimbabwe for President Robert Mugabe's 84th birthday celebrations, state radio reported Friday.

Many were traveling free on commandeered buses and trains, it said.

Organizers of Saturday's ceremonies said they raised about 3 trillion Zimbabwe dollars (or the equivalent of about $250,000 at the dominant black market exchange rate) for the bash amid chronic shortages of hard currency, gasoline, food and most basic goods.

Tom Odom
03-10-2008, 06:43 PM
Another great idea....



Zimbabwe: Blacks to control firms (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/10/zimbabwe/index.html?iref=mpstoryview)
(CNN) -- Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has signed a new law that hands over majority ownership of all businesses to "indigenous" Zimbabweans.


The new law means that foreign- and white-owned companies operating in the country will have to surrender at least 51 percent control of their operations to blacks.

Lawmakers passed the legislation last September. But the presidential "assent" was announced Sunday in the government-controlled newspaper, The Sunday Mail.

It comes just days before Mugabe could face the most serious challenges to his decades-long rule in the March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Under his rule, once-prosperous Zimbabwe has suffered an economic crisis with routine shortages of food, electricity and foreign currency.

Unless the Minister of State for Indigenisation and Empowerment alters the share allotment, the law would mean that several banks, mining companies and phone companies -- among other foreign businesses -- will have to relinquish control.
The bill, when it was put forward last year, described "indigenous Zimbabwean" as "any person who, before the 18th April, 1980, was disadvantaged by unfair discrimination on the grounds of his or her race, and any descendant of such person."

Tom Odom
03-12-2008, 06:30 PM
Once again economic comedian President Robert Mugabe does his imitation of Eddy Murphy but no one laughs....


Embattled Mugabe boosts workers' pay (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/12/zimbabwe/index.html)


(CNN) -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, battling skyrocketing inflation and a serious challenge to his decades-long rule, has announced "a huge salary increase" for his nation's government workers.


President Robert Mugabe attends a rally earlier this month ahead of elections set for March 29.

Mugabe made the announcement while stumping for votes for the March 29 general elections, state media reported.

Under his rule, once-prosperous Zimbabwe has suffered an economic crisis with routine shortages of food, electricity and foreign currency. Unemployment is estimated at about 80 percent; the inflation in the nation of 12.5 million people is in excess of 24,000 percent.

Last month, Mugabe offered a massive salary increase to soldiers. And this week, he signed a law that hands over majority control of white and foreign-owned business to blacks.

The opposition has called the latter move a cheap political gimmick.

"Just yesterday (Monday), I was signing a new salary schedule of big salaries for teachers and civil servants," the Herald newspaper quoted Mugabe as telling a campaign rally in southern Zimbabwe. "I hope they will be happy, because we have worked out very good salaries."

Rhodesian
03-13-2008, 04:56 PM
The following uses language that one J Edgar Hoover might have approved of, however apart from the excessive use of the word "Communist" ("Marxist" is much more accurate), and one comment (highlighted) which isn`t accurate, many of my tribe will remember the incidents and recognise the sentiment. I.R.


Winds of Change (http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4917.3196.0.0), March 12, 2008 | From theTrumpet.com

As Zimbabwe takes another step toward oblivion, here's a look at how a once-proud nation fell so far. By Richard Palmer

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has signed a new law that gives "indigenous" Zimbabweans majority ownership of all businesses. This new law will make matters even worse for an already impoverished country.

It is hard to see how conditions could get worse for this once prosperous nation. While few official figures are available, estimates put unemployment at 80 percent. Official figures also put the inflation rate at 24,000 percent, though in reality inflation in Zimbabwe is very hard to measure. When there is no food on the shelves, it is hard to tell how much the price has risen.

This new law is not going to fix that. It states that "indigenous Zimbabweans shall own at least 51 percent of the shares of every public company and other businesses." The term "indigenous" refers to "any person who, before the 18th April, 1980, was disadvantaged by unfair discrimination on the grounds of his or her race, and any descendant of such person."

This new legislation brings back memories of the tragic land reforms that took place several years ago. According to Harare-based economist Godfrey Kanyenze, "It will entail the destruction of the economy. We should have learned from the blunders of the land reforms where people who were not properly equipped rushed to grab farms. The result was a disaster in the agricultural sector and we are now importing maize from the countries where the former farmers have migrated to."

The land now known as Zimbabwe was once the breadbasket of Africa. Today it is a den of tyranny, starvation and squalor. In 1960, British Prime Minister Howard Macmillan forecast that "the wind of change" would soon blow over the continent. This is where those winds of change brought Zimbabwe......

....In 1979, majority elections were held. Mugabe did not win. Bishop Abel Muzorewa became president, despite threats and intimidation from Mugabe and Nkomo.
.....
(Edit - Mugabe and Nkomo`s factions were not allowed to participate in this election for numerous reasons, including the refusal to lay down their weapons etc etc. In the next round they did participate, stating plainly that if they did not win, the war continues. A Brit Policeman, a member of the Monitoring Force sent in to keep an eye on us, was quite disgusted, but told me, "the Powers don`t care, they want the Rhodesia problem to go away.")

Tom Odom
03-14-2008, 03:57 PM
Just a brief primer on Zimbabwe politics:

ZANU or (ZANU-PF as it is now labeled) is Mugabe's bunch. They were Shoma-based as a resistance group. ZANU with ZANLA as its armed wing was supported by the PRC and based from Mozambique.

ZANU-PF resulted from the merger with ZAPU after Nkomo was ousted and a civila war between the groups developed. this was ongoing when I went through Zimbabwe in 1984, centered in Matableland.

ZAPU was/is Nkomo's group centered on the Ndebele (who are Zulu in origin having fled from Shaka and sheltered under Brit protection); ZAPU with its armed wing ZIPRA was Soviet supported and based from Zambia.

This should help put this article in context:


Peace Won't Come to Zimbabwe (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120545660537435329.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries)
By MARIAN L. TUPY and DAVID COLTART
March 14, 2008

Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections on March 29 are rigged in favor of the incumbent leader Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. Much ink has been spilled on the electoral prospects of his two opponents -- Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, and former Finance Minister Simba Makoni. But neither have a realistic chance of winning, for Mr. Mugabe knows that the most likely alternative to the State House in Harare is a prison cell at The Hague.


The case against Mr. Mugabe and the ZANU-PF for crimes against humanity would be compelling. They have turned one of Africa's most prosperous and relatively free nations into an Orwellian nightmare. Since 1994, the average life expectancy in Zimbabwe has fallen to 34 from 57 for women and to 37 from 54 for men. Some 3,500 Zimbabweans die every week from the combined effects of HIV/AIDS, poverty and malnutrition. Inflation and unemployment are at 150,000% (no misprint here) and 80%, respectively. The country has no freedom of speech or assembly, and the government has used violence to intimidate and murder its opponents. In the meantime, Zimbabwe's delusional leader rails against non-existent Western plots supposedly concocted by George W. Bush and Tony Blair.

davidbfpo
03-15-2008, 06:49 PM
The BBC have an item on the reaction of Zimbabwe's Police chief to the prospect of Mugabe not winning an election: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7295962.stm

For those who watch Zimbabwe's fall, this will not be a surprise and the police chief has nothing to lose - will except the farms he has managed to acquire.

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
03-19-2008, 05:38 PM
World Could longtime Zimbabwean leader Mugabe be defeated? (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/world/story/30819.html)

MASVINGO, Zimbabwe — Few people in this long-suffering nation can recall political life before Robert Mugabe, the liberation hero who moved into the presidential mansion 28 years ago and has never left.

Despite presiding over one of the most stunning economic collapses in modern African history, Mugabe has held on to power through fear, bullying and a series of less-than-fair elections. But with the next vote just days away, many weary Zimbabweans are asking: Could Mugabe finally be defeated?

The 84-year-old president faces his toughest election challenge ever March 29, including, for the first time, a contender from within his all-powerful ruling party. The entry of Simba Makoni, a polished former finance minister, into the race last month prompted a flood of people to register to vote. Many Zimbabweans think that the end is nigh for one of Africa's longest-running dictatorships.

Cynic that I am, I don't think Mugabe will leave so quietly...

Tom

Tom Odom
03-21-2008, 01:35 PM
From an opposition candidate. It is never good when the opposition opens with the admission that the incumbent will probably win.




Freedom for Zimbabwe (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120605743900153357.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries)
By MORGAN TSVANGIRAI
March 21, 2008; Page A13

As the March 29 election in Zimbabwe approaches, the cards are clearly stacked in favor of President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party. Draconian legislation has curtailed freedom of expression and association. Daily, the representatives of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the political party that I lead, are harassed, tortured, imprisoned without trial and even killed.

Economic mismanagement by Mr. Mugabe's government is an even more serious problem. Zimbabwe's inflation and unemployment rates are 150,000% and 80% respectively. Infrastructure is crumbling, and education and health-care systems have collapsed. Life expectancy is now among the lowest in the world, having declined, since 1994, to 34 years from 57 years for women, and to 37 years from 54 for men. Some four million of my fellow citizens have fled the country, taking with them both human and financial capital.

Out of the many reasons for Zimbabwe's decline, three stand out. First is the ruling regime's contempt for the rule of law. The government has repeatedly stole elections, and intimidated, beaten and murdered its opponents. It has confiscated private property without compensation and ignored court rulings declaring such takings illegal. Such behavior only scares away investors, domestic and international. Current circumstances make it impossible to have a growing economy that will create jobs for millions of unemployed Zimbabweans.[/QUOTE]

davidbfpo
03-23-2008, 01:40 PM
Taken from a Zimbabwean newsletter:

MUGABE CHANGES LAW TO ALLOW POLICEMEN INTO POLLING BOOTHS http://www.swradioafrica.com/news190308/police190308.htm

An electoral amendment, passed by Robert Mugabe on Monday, sparked renewed fears that Zanu PF is determined to rig the March 29 election. State radio announced Tuesday that Mugabe amended electoral laws to allow policemen into polling stations to ‘assist’ illiterate people to vote. The opposition immediately slammed the amendment saying it violated agreements reached at the SADC brokered talks. Policemen were barred from being within 100 metres of a polling station because it was felt they would intimidate voters.

SA SILENCES MPS ON SADC OBSERVER MISSION TO ZIMBABWE http://www.swradioafrica.com/news200308/sasilence200308.htm

It appears that the policy of “quiet diplomacy” practiced by South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki is about to be applied to the regional observer mission deployed to Zimbabwe. South African parliamentarians assigned to the SADC team that will be monitoring Zimbabwe’s elections have been ordered not to issue independent statements.

SOLDIERS AND POLICE OFFICERS FORCED TO VOTE UNDER SUPERVISION http://www.swradioafrica.com/news200308/soldiers200308.htm

Over 75 000 members of the country’s security forces have already cast their votes, in an exercise that has been a closely guarded secret, according to information received by the MDC. In Bulawayo most police officers were allegedly forced to vote several times, while in Mutare soldiers were ordered to write their force numbers on the back of their ballot papers.

From this faraway armchair Mugabe once again finds new voting methods to retain power.

davidbfpo

Stan
03-25-2008, 03:20 PM
Once again economic comedian President Robert Mugabe does his imitation of Eddy Murphy but no one laughs....

And just in case this hike in salaries won't get folks to the market, we'll threaten the store owners to reduce prices....all things being equal, even Mobutu didn't conjure up this one :D

Zimbabwe: Govt to Meet Business Over Prices (http://allafrica.com/stories/200803250007.html)


GOVERNMENT will meet business today to discuss the reduction of prices of goods and services to February 12 levels when teachers and other civil servants were awarded a salary increment, President Mugabe has said.

Cde Mugabe said he would read the riot act if they ignore the order.

He said officials from the Ministry of Industry and International Trade and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe would meet captains of industry in Harare today to slash prices which he said was a deliberate attempt to frustrate Government efforts by those pushing for regime change.

Addressing a star rally at Hwange Colliery Stadium, Cde Mugabe said companies that resisted the order to reduce prices risked being taken over by the Government because they were serving the interests of people who were keen to effect regime change in the country.

Tom Odom
03-26-2008, 01:42 PM
The first is from a former countryman :



Zimbabwe's Ahab (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-godwin25mar25,0,7210173.story)
Robert Mugabe, poised to steal another election, has led his nation to ruin.
By Peter Godwin
March 25, 2008

Once it was Africa's shining city on a hill, a beacon of prosperity and economic growth in the gloom of a continent shrouded by poverty. Emerging in 1980 from a seven-year civil war against white settler rule, the newly independent nation of Zimbabwe embraced racial reconciliation and invited the country's whites (one in 20 of the population) to remain and contribute to the new nation.

I was one of those who gladly dismissed Rhodesia and became Zimbabwean. Upon the firm economic infrastructure he had inherited, Robert Mugabe, our first black leader, built a health and educational system that was the envy of Africa. Zimbabwe became the continent's most literate country, with its highest per capita income. Zimbabwe easily fed itself and had plenty left over to export to its famine-prone neighbors.

I remember crisscrossing the continent then as Africa correspondent for a British newspaper, and each time I returned to the newly renamed capital of Harare (previously it had been Salisbury), I was reminded that in comparison to what surrounded it, Zimbabwe was like Switzerland. The roads were well maintained, the elevators worked, electricity was constant, you could drink the water, the steaks were world-renowned. The Zimbabwe dollar was at near parity with its American namesake.

I can certainly echo that description in 1984--with the caveat that by then the civil war between the Shona and N'Debele was already in play in Bulawayo. Harare was to me after a year in Khartoum and trips to Zaire, Somalia, and Chad among other places remarkable. It even outshown Nairobi--which had not yet become Nairobbery as we called it by the mid-90s.

Next:


Robert Mugabe: a bad man in Africa (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article3621496.ece)
New strategies must be found urgently to end the tyranny of Zimbabwe's leader

For a man so deluded about his past achievements, Robert Mugabe has a painfully clear understanding of his prospects at the polls. His rivals for the Zimbabwean presidency “may win some seats”, he said recently, “but they cannot win the majority. Impossible.”

Few would gainsay him. Zimbabwe's opposition movement is more vocal than in past years, but more divided. Its voters can expect systematic intimidation this Saturday from police at polling stations. Constituencies have been redrawn in favour of the ruling Zanu (PF) party. The count has been centralised and will be supervised behind closed doors by presidential appointees. There is not even a pretence of fair election coverage in the state media, and in any case voting, for millions, will take second place to the more urgent business of survival. This is why Mr Mugabe's election forecast is likely to be accurate. It is a tragedy for Zimbabweans; it is also proof of a colossal failure of international diplomacy.

And this one is on the mark as well. The African community of states has often pointed to colonialism as the root of all evil on the continent, an understandable but nonetheless mythological claim often echoed by Western scholarship. Colonialism did affect the continent; in may ways it was devastating. In others, it was progressive in that it pulled the continent into the 20th century. But it was not as it is often claimed "the original sin" from which all African woes grow. The African community has not done itself proud in sillently watching the travesty in Zimbabwe.

Next:



Politics and power in Zimbabwe (http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/03/26/politics_and_power_in_zimbabwe/)
By Robert I. Rotberg
March 26, 2008

THIS WEEKEND President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is expected once again to rig elections in order to hold onto power while neighboring Botswana, Africa's oasis of peace and good governance, will celebrate the retirement of President Festus Mogae after two productive terms. The contrast between Botswana and Zimbabwe could not be more stark, or more illustrative of good and evil in Africa.

Botswana, one of Africa's wealthiest countries per capita thanks to diamonds, tourism, and sensible management, has enjoyed more than four decades of honest, practical government under three popular presidents. On Monday, Mogae will give way to Vice President Ian Khama.

Guided by Mogae and two other democratic presidents, the small country has flourished and become the envy of all of Africa. Despite high HIV/AIDS numbers, its hospitals and clinics provide retroviral drugs to all sufferers. Its schools and universities provide increasing numbers of local and neighboring peoples with instruction.

As for Botswana, its success story lies in its continued accptance of whites in government and the economy. No doubt that continued happy relationship has survived because the country did not go through a civil war to achieve independence. Rather it was a gradual and guided process to independence unmatched on the continent.

best

Tom

ancien
03-26-2008, 03:22 PM
I think the end of colonialism happened at the wrong time and to fast. For congo there was a plan for 30 years to independense. It did not turn out that way.......

A good reed on ending colonialism starting from the end '40s.
LINK (http://www.amazon.com/Capricorn-David-Stirlings-African-Campaign/dp/186064919X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206544265&sr=1-1)

Stan
03-26-2008, 05:00 PM
Council on Foreign Relations - March 25, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson


Perhaps the only thing more unbelievable than the astronomical inflation rate in Zimbabwe—officially over 100,000 percent—is that President Robert Mugabe is still in power. As Zimbabwe’s economy has spiraled ever deeper, the president has curried the loyalty of supporters by handing out prominent political positions and printing money. Yet ahead of elections on March 29 (ElectionGuide.org) (http://www.electionguide.org/country.php?ID=240), that support no longer looks guaranteed. Excitement surrounds the candidacy of Simba Makoni, a former finance minister (Newsweek Int’l) (http://www.newsweek.com/id/128544) who was expelled from the ruling party, ZANU-PF, when he declared his candidacy in February. It’s highly unlikely Makoni will win the election—which, in any case, virtually no one expects to be free and fair—but his defection signals a divide in ZANU-PF that Zimbabwe experts believe could extend to other groups thought to be loyal to Mugabe.

Much more history at the links...

davidbfpo
03-26-2008, 07:27 PM
The RUSI (London) had a conference on Zimbabwe recently; an interesting sign in the Westminster-Whitehall community and there is a summary on:
http://www.rusi.org/research/studies/africa/commentary/ref:C47DFFD4E90EF3/

Plus an eighteen page report.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
03-30-2008, 09:09 PM
From The Zimbabwean newspaper (not printed In Zimbabwe) on the scene at a polling station in Makonde:

A rowdy gang of Zanu (PF) green bombers showed up at the polling station with orders to scare away the hundreds of voters waiting patiently at the school gates. The youth militia noisily and provocatively jumped the queue then peeled off their jackets to reveal identical T-shirts emblazoned with Mugabe's face. Punching the air, they chanted Zanu (PF) slogans and jabbed their boots at young women crouched on a grass verge accusing them of being opposition supporters. For a few moments the hum of conversation was stilled. Then an elderly man who had been sitting on a brick wall stood up and shouted at the green bombers: "Your time is up, you are finished. It's the end of the road for your regime." The militia scanned the faces of the crowd staring back at them. Only days ago these people would have run. Not any more. They stood their ground and the green bombers walked away. The elderly Moses Chigwango, the man who had confronted the Zanu (PF) youths, told how 30 years ago he and President Mugabe were guerrillas in exile in Mozambique, fighting the chimurenga, or war of independence.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
03-30-2008, 09:26 PM
Two BBC News items:

Monitors warn on Zimbabwe 'delay'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7321751.stm

Delay adds to Zimbabwe fraud fears
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7321756.stm

MDC, main opposition, report they may have won!

davidbfpo

Stan
03-31-2008, 08:58 AM
Interesting this latest report from the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7321938.stm) regarding the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Poll Monitors


Western observers were banned from the election.

...Poll monitors from the SADC said the elections had been "peaceful and credible".

But two SADC members from South Africa refused to sign a generally positive preliminary report of the mission, with one of them calling the polls "deeply flawed".

"It is called a coup d'etat and we all know how coups are handled."

A British Foreign Office minister, Mark Malloch-Brown, said it was "quite likely" that President Mugabe had lost the election in Zimbabwe, despite "massive pre-election day cheating".


VOA News (http://voanews.com/english/2008-03-29-voa28.cfm) - Zimbabwe Election Support Network
Few Turn Up at Many Rural Polling Stations in Zimbabwean Vote


The independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network says that voter turnout has been good so far.

However, some commentators said they were surprised to see that so few voters lined up in rural areas where 60 percent of the population lives.

Substantial numbers of voters were turned away, perhaps as much as 15 percent, said one independent election observer Saturday.

The opposition to Mr. Mugabe has said it expects widespread rigging. But Mr. Mugabe has said his conscience does not allow him to cheat. :wry:

Stan
03-31-2008, 02:52 PM
Zimbabwe stands 'on a precipice' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7322468.stm)

"Leading Movement for Democratic Change official Tendai Biti says party leader Morgan Tsvangirai has won 60% of the vote, against 30% for Robert Mugabe."


Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa has lost his seat, east of Harare.

Public Affairs Minister Chen Chimutengwende has also lost his seat.

A senior Zanu-PF source has told a BBC contributor that security officials met on Sunday to decide who should tell Mr Mugabe he had lost, with some refusing to take the job. :rolleyes:

Tom Odom
03-31-2008, 02:56 PM
now we get down to waiting to see what kind of electoral rabbit Mugabe pulls out of his hat...



MDC claims it is heading for clear victory over Mugabe in Zimbabwe election (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3650700.ece)

Zimbabwe's main opposition party claimed today to be heading to a clear victory over Robert Mugabe after presidential and parliamentary elections.

Official results from Saturday's only trickled out, however, prompting accusations that the veteran President was trying to fix the poll results in a desperate bid to cling to power.

With 24 of the 210 parliamentary seats so far declared by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF was level-pegging with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, on 12 seats each.

No official figures were given for the presidential contest.

Stan
03-31-2008, 05:42 PM
The folks at The Institute for War and Peace Reporting (http://iwpr.net/?p=acr&s=f&o=343701&apc_state=henh) now claim.....


Official sources say he will claim to have won presidential poll despite clearly losing to Tsvangirai.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare (AR No. 163, 31-Mar-08)
In what can best be described as a shock result, President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party are about to announce victory for Mugabe in the parliamentary and presidential elections, according to unofficial results leaked from the ZANU-PF and Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, command centres.

But sources within the ZEC centre - newly christened the National Collation Centre - say Mugabe clearly lost the election to his opposition rival Morgan Tsvangirai, polling only 20 per cent of the vote.

...But commentators say it would be something of a miracle if Mugabe and his party had secured the victory, given more than 85 per cent unemployment, serious food shortages and a collapsed health delivery system.

Some of the ruling party’s heavyweights that have fallen include Minister of Women Affairs Oppah Muchunguri, Agriculture Minister Joseph Made, Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Minister of Energy and Power Development Mike Nyambuya, and Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu.

There are already reports coming from the United States saying sanctions, currently targeted at Mugabe and his close associates, would be intensified if the ballot were not free and fair. The same is likely to come from Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other western countries.

But what is more worrying now is how Zimbabweans are going to receive the result, especially after the MDC has been saying it “has won this election beyond any reasonable doubt”.

davidbfpo
03-31-2008, 10:34 PM
Key Sites for Election Updates and Commentary:

Sokwanele Civic Action Support Group http://www.sokwanele.com Has detailed updates both from Zimbabwe Election Commission(official) and Parallel Voting Tabulation (unofficial)

AllAfrica http://allafrica.com/zimbabwe
Kubatana http://www.kubatana.net
SW Radio Africa http://www.swradioafrica.com
Google Maps Mashup on Election Rigging Reports http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/archives/767

Stan
04-01-2008, 06:58 AM
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/31/AR2008033100741.html?hpid=sec-world)...
Mugabe got 41.8 percent of the vote, compared with 49.4 percent for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. An independent, Simba Makoni, got 8 percent...

If confirmed, the monitor group's numbers would push Mugabe and Tsvangirai into a runoff vote -- something analysts have long said would consolidate opposition to the president and hasten the end of his rule. Zimbabwe election laws require that a winning candidate get more than 50 percent of the vote. The new election likely would be April 19.

davidbfpo
04-01-2008, 07:03 AM
On a BBC Radio 4 interview, Martin Rupiah, ex-Zimbabwe Army colonel, now living in South Africa, commented that the slow release of the results was designed to bring out protestors out onto the street, where the loyal security forces, or certain parts of them, would crush them.

davidbfpo

Stan
04-01-2008, 05:14 PM
01 Apr 2008 | The foreign ministers of seven EU member states (http://diplomacymonitor.com/stu/dm.nsf/dn/dnD2E398F2D75366BC8525741E004647EC), including the Netherlands, have called upon the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission to swiftly announce the results of the presidential election.


Foreign minister Maxime Verhagen and his counterparts from the UK, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain expressed their concerns at an informal meeting convened by French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner in Paris on Monday.

Stan
04-01-2008, 06:05 PM
From CONDÉ NAST (http://www.portfolio.com/slideshows/2008/3/Worlds-Most-Worthless-Money/?TID=advert/wired/worthless_money)

As Americans worry about the rate of inflation exceeding 4 percent, we should consider Zimbabwe, where the inflation rate broke the shocking 100,000 percent mark and the country released a 10 million-dollar note (now valued below $4 on the black market). But Zimbabwe's currency is hardly the only one inflated beyond reason. —George Quraishi

Best before: "On or before 30 June 2008" :confused:

Stan
04-01-2008, 08:52 PM
All Africa (http://allafrica.com/stories/200804010644.html)


A deal is being negotiated in Zimbabwe in which President Robert Mugabe would step down after being in power for nearly 28 years, news agencies reported Tuesday.

Business Day (http://www.businessday.co.za/search/results.aspx)



IF YOU have been able to make sense of what is being said about tomorrow’s elections in Zimbabwe, you deserve to win the lottery this weekend. I confess that I lack the intellectual tools to analyse an election that is not going to be free...

Mugabe ‘buys votes’ with cars for doctors (http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/specialreports.aspx?ID=BD4A735537)


facing the toughest election battle of his 28 years in power, handed out hundreds of cars to doctors yesterday in what opponents said was more blatant vote-buying.

The main opposition group said it had uncovered more evidence that Mugabe planned to rig Saturday’s presidential election...

Zimbabwe parties deny deal on Mugabe exit (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL2880883820080401)


HARARE (Reuters) - Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and the Zimbabwean government both strongly denied on Tuesday that they were in talks to arrange the resignation of veteran President Robert Mugabe after Saturday's election.

"There is no discussion and this is just a speculative story," Tsvangirai said in response to media reports that Mugabe was about to step down in a deal with his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Earlier a U.S. State Department official, referring to the media reports, told reporters: "I know there were discussions that were going on but we will see what happens and when it happens."

Tom Odom
04-02-2008, 04:19 PM
I pulled a couple of articles off the press round up from SWJ Blog. The first two are pretty much the norm. Mugabe lost but the world waits to see if he will really accept defeat. And if he does, how will he leave?


Endgame in Zimbabwe Nears (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3663369.ece)- Philp and Clayton, London Times

The ruinous reign of Robert Mugabe is drawing to a close as aides work to secure him a facesaving exit after defeat at the polls.

Talks began after Mr Mugabe’s closest cohorts gathered at State House to inform him that he had not only failed to win an outright victory in the weekend’s presidential election, but was beaten into second place by his challenger.



Zimbabwe Challenger Claims Win (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-zimbabwe2apr02,0,4581037.story)- Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times
HARARE, ZIMBABWE -- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai claimed Tuesday to have defeated President Robert Mugabe in Saturday's presidential election and called on the longtime leader to respect voters' will.

In his first public appearance since the vote, Tsvangirai endorsed official results released thus far and said any talks on a smooth transition could occur only after the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission's final announcement of the tally.

This one is somewhat different in it looks at how Mugabe has stayed on so long. I loved the opening sentence concerning a "normal democracy."


A Wonder Mugabe Could Stay On (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/04/02/do0208.xml) - Sebastien Berger, London Daily Telegraph

In any normal democracy where most people were unemployed, inflation was running at over 100,000 per cent, and a third of the population needed food aid, the government would be voted out by a landslide at the first opportunity.

All of this, however, begs the question of what happens next if Mugabe does leave? Seems to me the classic danger of rising expectations comes into play. Can a new leader with international support turn things around quickly enough to satisfy those who will expect instant change?

Tom

davidbfpo
04-03-2008, 08:40 AM
Taken from a contribution to the EBO thread:

Look at Zimbabwe briefly. The rule of law was maintained for many years after independence in 1980, although the police quickly became partisan. Now on the verge of change any new government will find the courts stacked against it, with ZANU-PF appointees. Then look wider, 3m Zimbabweans have left; on the BBC Radio 4 this morning most of them professionals, with doctors to the USA and nurses to the UK. How to get the professionals back to help reform Zimbabwe? (This paragraph copied to the Zimbabwe thread).

With far better salaries, not the weather though, how will Zimbabwe get them back from higher salaries? No, don't just say aid packages. I am aware lots of Afghan exiles have returned - from anecdote and reading around.

davidbfpo

tequila
04-03-2008, 08:49 AM
I am aware lots of Afghan exiles have returned - from anecdote and reading around.

Yes, but the vast majority of Afghan exiles were not the educated elite, but rather just ordinary folks pushed into Iran and Pakistan. Iran just forced several hundred thousand to return.

Tom Odom
04-03-2008, 07:17 PM
CNN is reporting that the GOZ raided opposition party headquarters as what may be part of a crackdown....


More as this develops


Tom

OK more information makes it look like the "raids" are targeting journalists so we shall see what happens.


Sources: Zimbabwe forces raid Harare hotel, 4 journalists seized (http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/)
Posted: 03:00 PM ET
HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) — Zimbabwe security forces Thursday increased their checks on foreign reporters in Harare, raiding one hotel and seizing four unaccredited journalists, diplomatic sources and a witness at the hotel told CNN.

Stan
04-03-2008, 08:52 PM
Notice how Ahmed Tejan Kabbah has suddenly gotten involved in GOZ business. With little else to do, tried and true experience in the field of being jerked from power by his own military, spared once again by either the Brits or UN, and Pres once again, the old fart is trying to sell his opinion to Mugabe. If only Mobutu was still around....:cool:

First it was a leak reported by the New Zimbabwe (http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/ijaz47.17957.html).
Now the foreign journalists have been arrested...no credentials...no Sierra :eek:

Tom Odom
04-04-2008, 06:16 PM
Mugabe's party agrees to presidential runoff (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/04/zimbabwe.election/index.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's ruling party said Friday that President Robert Mugabe would be willing to face Morgan Tsvangirai in a runoff election.
The announcement was made before official results of the March 29 presidential race were announced by the Electoral Commission, which has the final say in whether a runoff will be held.

A runoff is required when neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.

Zimbabwe's electoral commission was expected to release final results of last week's election Friday amid a crackdown on the opposition and media.

So there was a show of force in a limited sense and now ZANU-PF "agrees" to a run off after most say the opposition won cleanly. Expect more intimidation efforts and delays.

Tom

Stan
04-04-2008, 06:37 PM
Zimbabwe Veterans March in Show of Force Against Opposition (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,346360,00.html)

He still manages to get his veterans fired up !


HARARE, Zimbabwe — Hundreds of veterans of Zimbabwe's guerrilla war for black rule marched through the capital Friday, silent but leaving little doubt they were out to intimidate President Robert Mugabe's political opponents.

Hmmm, were these Vets the very same that ended up with all the farm land ?

Tom Odom
04-04-2008, 06:55 PM
Hmmm, were these Vets the very same that ended up with all the farm land ?

That would be an affirmative along with key ZANU party hacks. Then again Mo could always get the DSP to march, could he not? Of course when the 31st Para marched, it was called a "pillage." :D

Stan
04-04-2008, 07:17 PM
That would be an affirmative along with key ZANU party hacks. Then again Mo could always get the DSP to march, could he not? Of course when the 31st Para marched, it was called a "pillage." :D

Indeed, Tom !
But Mo and his followers has some grandiose names like Front National pour la Liberation du Congo and Parti de la revolution Populaire (Ahem...led by Kabila) :cool:

So, is the stage was now set for the ultimate confrontation ? Unlike Zaire where in 91 France's Operation Baumier and Belgian Blue Beam together with...

...wait for it...

General Mahale's fanatically loyal troops of the Service d’Action et de Renseignement Militaire :wry:...ran the 31st and (cough) Chinese-trained (ahem) elite 41st commandos (mutineers) outta Dodge.

Will the Brits be coming or do we have to once again fly in C-141s :D

davidbfpo
04-05-2008, 06:09 AM
Will the Brits be coming or do we have to once again fly in C-141s? :D

Not a hope in hell the UK will intervene, nor the Commonwealth, nor South Africa. As for the C141 for evacuation of foreign nationals, how many are left and the road south is open. I doubt if either Mugabe or his successor would welcome C141 anyway.

davidbfpo

Stan
04-05-2008, 08:16 AM
Not a hope in hell the UK will intervene, nor the Commonwealth, nor South Africa. As for the C141 for evacuation of foreign nationals, how many are left and the road south is open. I doubt if either Mugabe or his successor would welcome C141 anyway.

davidbfpo

David,
I was hinting towards airlifting intervention forces (para commandos) with the 141s much like Zaire in the 70s and 90s :eek: We could work on permission from Mugabe slightly later.

Of course Zaire's airport was literally dysfunctional due in larger part to a 'self evacuation' by airport personnel, so the para commandos jumped in and maintained security and operations for military aircraft. The brunt of the evacuations took place with ferries into Brazzaville.

Evacuating tens of thousands of foreigners in Zimbabwe will be a daunting logistical problem and only the US has heavy military airlift for say a brigade :cool:

With Zanu-PF supporting a run-off and calling for recounts for 16 parliamentary seats, there's little left to imagine happening.

BTW, you're correct about the availability of Starlifters...I think the last flight was in 2006 following the evacuation of New Orleans and Gulf Coast residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

Regards, Stan

davidbfpo
04-05-2008, 10:08 PM
=Stan;44056]David,
I was hinting towards airlifting intervention forces (para commandos) with the 141s much like Zaire in the 70s and 90s :eek: We could work on permission from Mugabe slightly later.

Stan,

Thanks for the clarification. I still cannot imagine US or any Western nation intervening in Zimbabwe.

OK thinking about intervention a little more, only the USA could do it alone and no-one is likely to be a willing partner.

The only people who will decide Zimbabwe's future are Zimbabweans in Zimbabwe; just like in 1965 and the so-called War of Liberation (I am mindful of not entering the debate over how Rhodesia ended and Zimbabwe started.

davidbfpo

jcustis
04-06-2008, 12:27 AM
Just received this through the Lekkerwear email string.

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c309/deftac03/8.jpg

Tom Odom
04-07-2008, 01:57 PM
Stan: Hmmm, were these Vets the very same that ended up with all the farm land ?


There you go again reading the future, Stan...



Zimbabwe's war veterans set their sights on white farms (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3694930.ece)Catherine Philp in Harare

Militant supporters of Robert Mugabe descended on some of Zimbabwe’s last white-owned farms yesterday in an orchestrated campaign of intimidation designed to keep him in power.

The invasions, which sparked memories of the farm seizures that ultimately brought the economy to its knees, got under way as the ruling party and the Opposition both launched legal battles over the release of election results.

Lawyers for the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) appeared in court to press for the immediate release of presidential poll results, more than a week after the election. Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF), meanwhile, hit back with a demand that results be withheld and a recount taken.

And the source of the new assult in the few remaining white farmers: Mugabe's state run paper


Court to Rule on Release of Vote Count in Zimbabwe (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/world/africa/07zimbabwe.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin)

...In the state-run Herald newspaper on Monday, President Robert G. Mugabe urged Zimbabweans to defend their land from former white “colonizers,” adding to fears that he may be preparing to stir unrest and mount a campaign of violent intimidation of the kind he has used to win past elections.

The newspaper said there were “widespread reports of white former farmers flocking back into the country” to take over the land in the event of an opposition victory.

Meanwhile Mugabe's security forces have been intimidating the lawyers



Zimbabwe police threaten to shoot lawyers (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/06/wzim106.xml)
By Foreign Staff in Harare and Gethin Chamberlain

The political turmoil in Zimbabwe worsened as armed police blocked attempts by opposition parties to force the publication of delayed election results.

In a showdown on the steps of the colonial-style High Court building in the capital, Harare, plain-clothes officers brandished guns and threatened to open fire on lawyers who were trying to get inside to put their case to a judge.

Stan
04-08-2008, 07:50 AM
Tom, it appears there's been an issue with mathematics (the inability to count beyond one's fingers and toes).

Zimbabwean police have arrested at least five officials (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7335881.stm)


Police said the election officials have been charged with fraud and criminal abuse of duty, accused of taking nearly 5,000 votes away from Mr Mugabe.


There you go again reading the future, Stan...
And the source of the new assult in the few remaining white farmers: Mugabe's state run paper

From the article above:


"Land must remain in our hands - the land is ours, it must not be allowed to slip back into the hands of whites" President Robert Mugabe

I think Tsvangirai probably should consider staying in South Africa a little while longer !

Stan
04-10-2008, 06:53 AM
Moeletsi Mbeki (http://www.swradioafrica.com/news190208/moletsi190208.htm), the outspoken brother of South Africa’s President, this week revealed why he believes that SADC has continued to support Robert Mugabe, despite his obvious failures and their negative effect on the region.


Writing in The Sunday Tribune in South Africa, Mbeki said he believes that Zimbabwe's neighbours are “mollycoddling” Mugabe because they have short-sighted leadership and a fear of the more democratic political forces that are emerging in Zimbabwe.

... the emergence of these “new, well-organised, cosmopolitan and vocal constituencies that were no longer interested in the politics of race, but in the accountability of governance, has struck fear in the hearts of established rulers, not only in Zimbabwe, but in the whole of Southern Africa.”

All Africa (http://allafrica.com/stories/200804091025.html) - SADC Steps Into the Fray


"The summit was not a reaction to Zimbabwe's problems, but probably a response to pressure from donor nations..."

"SADC has given ZANU-PF comfort to do what it is doing".

... the MDC was not just a threat to ZANU-PF, but also to SADC as it was representative of civil society and most governments in southern Africa were "nationalist parties, created by black elites during the colonial era, who saw themselves as colonial equals.

They see themselves as superior to the black masses."

davidbfpo
04-10-2008, 02:16 PM
A website I belong to has published an un-confirmed confidential list with explanatory footnote supplied by a senior member of the Zimbabwe military, who is extremely annoyed and frustrated by the ongoing attempts of the military to achieve the impossible, and provoke a reaction from the mass of Zimbabweans who voted for the end of Mugabe's regime. The plea is that it is essential that the regional and international community see the extent of the determination by the military to subvert the expressed will of Zimbabweans. Despite such efforts, it is increasingly clear, both within and outside Zimbabwe, that there is a determined resolve to see an end to Mugabe's regime, which no amount of dirty tricks can prevent.

In total, 200 serving senior officers of the armed forces will be participating in the exercise. They will be commanding other war veterans and Zanu pf thugs. The teams will be deployed on 8th April 2008 to campaign for RG Mugabe in the run off under the guise of war veterans. With the exception of two, all the deployed officers are senior serving officers of the armed services. It is understood that Lt. Gen. PV Sibanda will command the operation with the assistance of Maj. Gen. Nick Dube. General Chiwenga will be the overall commander of the operation. He is being assisted by Maj. Gen Last Mugova and Col. S. Mudambo.

I've deleted the names for brevity.

davidbfpo

jcustis
04-10-2008, 09:06 PM
I just read the more generic mention of just what you posted David. I can crystal-ball a spate of violence soon, akin to Noriega in Panama. This is not looking good.

But I wonder, did Mugabe actually leave the country to go to the summit in Zambia? Perhaps he is not overly concerned about the outcome of any political issues, and doesn't see any threats.

Stan
04-11-2008, 07:29 AM
According to recent VOA releases (http://voanews.com/english/search.cfm), Mugabe will be attending (http://voanews.com/english/2008-04-10-voa19.cfm) the emergency summit together with Tsvangirai. I think you're right, JC. Mugabe doesn't see a threat, nor is he concerned too much about leaving the country. One could speculate that Mugabe is on his quiet way out, never to return. But, he just reinstalled his former cabinet, and stashed the electoral commission into a secret location :cool: That said, it doesn't look like he's at all concerned.

Tom Odom
04-11-2008, 12:50 PM
According to recent VOA releases (http://voanews.com/english/search.cfm), Mugabe will be attending (http://voanews.com/english/2008-04-10-voa19.cfm) the emergency summit together with Tsvangirai. I think you're right, JC. Mugabe doesn't see a threat, nor is he concerned too much about leaving the country. One could speculate that Mugabe is on his quiet way out, never to return. But, he just reinstalled his former cabinet, and stashed the electoral commission into a secret location :cool: That said, it doesn't look like he's at all concerned.

I believe that at age 84 Mugabe intends to hang out until the last possible moment, perhaps even going for a Gbadolite-style retreat and a demise in isolated but somewhat still in charge lifestyle.

The real threat is not Mugabe--it is the folks around Mugabe who sold their souls to keep favor with the old man. How will they react should he go down? There will be no Gbadolite fror them. Part of their solution is already in play: resurrect the "white colonist/farmer" threat and meanhwile ignore the man (or men) behind the curtain who are manipulating the threat.

Remember also that at its heart, Zimbabwe is still very much a country split between Shona and Ndebele. Under Mugabe the Shona as the majority won the struggle to climb to the top; the Ndebele after some minor civil war among "victors" (sarcasm) bought into it with ZANU-PF making Zimbabwe essentially a one party state.




Zimbabwe: they dragged me behind a truck to make me vote for Mugabe (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3724340.ece)

...Areas across Matabeleland, Masvingo and Manicaland, which swung away from the ruling Zanu (PF) party for the first time, have found themselves at the forefront of the brutality.

White-owned farms were the first targets of the Zanu (PF) youth militias and so-called war veterans but from there the militias have moved on to party activists and even independent election observers. Insiders say that the campaign is being co-ordinated by 200 handpicked military and intelligence officers, each of whom is responsible for regional militia cells.

On Tuesday in Matabeleland South, to the east of Bulawayo, youth militia armed with AK47s stopped traffic and ordered people off buses, rounding them up and forcing them at gunpoint to chant slogans in praise of the ruling party. If they could not, they were beaten. “There will be a rerun for the presidential election and if you try and vote for the MDC again we will go to war,” the militiamen said. “We are not asking you to vote Zanu, we are ordering you - or else you will be killed.”

The future is indeed cloudy...

Tom

Stan
04-11-2008, 03:51 PM
I believe that at age 84 Mugabe intends to hang out until the last possible moment, perhaps even going for a Gbadolite-style retreat and a demise in isolated but somewhat still in charge lifestyle.

The real threat is not Mugabe--it is the folks around Mugabe who sold their souls to keep favor with the old man. How will they react should he go down? There will be no Gbadolite fror them. Part of their solution is already in play: resurrect the "white colonist/farmer" threat and meanhwile ignore the man (or men) behind the curtain who are manipulating the threat.

Remember also that at its heart, Zimbabwe is still very much a country split between Shona and Ndebele. Under Mugabe the Shona as the majority won the struggle to climb to the top; the Ndebele after some minor civil war among "victors" (sarcasm) bought into it with ZANU-PF making Zimbabwe essentially a one party state.

The future is indeed cloudy...

Tom

That old fart is nearly 3 times older than the WHO's estimated life expectancy of a male Zimbabwean. Maybe he's got a great farm to go to upon retirement. South Africa may not be a good haven considering how many Ndebele are hanging out there waiting.

And, just in case things get outta hand during the emergency summit...

Zimbabwe bans political rallies (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7342927.stm)


Zimbabwean police have banned political rallies "with immediate effect", amid growing tension over the country's disputed presidential election.

Police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena told state radio there were insufficient officers to deploy at such rallies.

The decision came as state radio reported that President Robert Mugabe would not now attend a regional summit on the crisis in Zambia at the weekend.

Tom Odom
04-11-2008, 04:12 PM
And just in...so much for the Lusaka summit

Mugabe pulls out of key meeting on election crisis (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/11/zimbabwe.mugabeout/index.html)


JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (CNN) -- Prospects of resolving Zimbabwe's two-week-old election crisis appeared dim Friday after a government spokesman said President Robert Mugabe would not attend a key weekend meeting with other regional leaders.

It is a reversal for Mugabe, who said Thursday he would attend the one-day summit in Lusaka, Zambia sponsored by the 15-member Southern African Development Community (SADC). The SADC called the summit to address Zimbabwe's March 29 presidential vote, the results of which are still unknown.

Rhodesian
04-13-2008, 08:56 AM
Thabo Mbeki says there is "no crisis" in Zim . . . . .
http://www.sokwanele.com/sendcard

davidbfpo
04-13-2008, 09:37 AM
From The Guardian (UK) a report on intimidation of the public: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/10/zimbabwe1

davidbfpi

davidbfpo
04-13-2008, 10:07 AM
Appearing on the BBC website, although citing a Zimbabwean newspaper, under the title Zimbabwe to hold partial recount and summary - Zimbabwe's electoral commission has ordered a recount of ballots in 23 constituencies in disputed elections held two weeks ago, local media says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7344900.stm

As one reponse says how can a recount be trusted when the ballot boxes disappeared from public view for two weeks?

Note still no public announcement of the presidential election result.

davidbfpo

Stan
04-13-2008, 10:10 AM
Interesting post, David. Reuters is now quoting Zimbabwe's Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu as saying Army will not fight Zimbabweans in poll (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0457212820080413). So looks like the old farts have to go it alone :rolleyes:


HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's army will not fight Zimbabweans over election results, the information minister said on Sunday, responding to opposition charges that President Robert Mugabe had staged a de facto coup to extend his rule.

"The soldiers are in the barracks where they belong because the country does not fully require their services in such a peaceful environment. I believe everyone in the country is aware that there is no military junta," Zimbabwe's Sunday Mail quoted Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu as saying.

davidbfpo
04-13-2008, 04:33 PM
Stan,

I am very sceptical that the ZNA will stay in their barracks, already there are reports that officers are being despatched to the provinces to co-ordinate the next stage of ZANU-PF's campaign to retain power. The ZNA would not need to fight their fellow citizens, just not do anything to stop the expected intimidation of the rural voters. Keeping the ZNA in barracks also helps to insulate them from the citizenry and under control. Heaven forbid someone in the ZNA decided not to remain loyal to Mugabe and ZANU-PF.

Historically the Police (ZRP) have been a more influential force, without any current signs of independence. Then there is the intelligence agency (CIO) whose loyalty is un-conditional and have a long history of brutality.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
04-13-2008, 08:53 PM
Here is a newly discovered website that appears to collate new stories from outside Zimbabwe: http://www1.zimbabwesituation.com/index.html#mail

davidbfpo

Stan
04-14-2008, 04:52 PM
HARARE (Reuters) (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWEB159520080414) - Zimbabwe's High Court on Monday rejected an opposition bid to force authorities to release the result of the country's presidential election after a two-week delay that has stoked fears of violence.

Hmmm, what would it take anymore to change one's opinion ?


... the Movement for Democratic Change said one of its supporters had been stabbed to death by members of President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party.

Police said the killing, by three people, did not appear to be political. :wry:

In his ruling, High Court Judge Tendai Uchena found in favor of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), saying it had shown the reason for the results delay was legally valid: "It can therefore justify the delay ... I dismiss the case with costs."

davidbfpo
04-14-2008, 10:30 PM
On another website there is a report, an email only, that the MDC has called a general strike starting Tuesday 15th April 2008 and calls for:

Please support the call for a General Strike. We elected Morgan Tsvangiraito be our President; let's RESPOND POSITIVELY to his call. * Do not come to work tomorrow (April 15th).* Stay peacefully at home.* Phone everyone you know NOW and spread the word.* Ask them to start phoning and spreading the word too.* Encourage those who are fearful or unsure that there comes a timewhen people need to stand together, strong and proud and peaceful, forwhat we believe in as a nation.* Don't forget: we have won. The only reason why ZEC is delaying isbecause the results showed that the opposition leader, Robert Mugabe, lostthe elections* Be peaceful, be proud and be strong.

A reporter found in the high density townships around Harare tension was rising, with calls that buses would be stoned if on the roads and if ZANU-PF brought in supporters from the rural areas.

The email appears to originate from this opposition website: http://www.sokwanele.com

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
04-14-2008, 10:36 PM
Have a read of Peter Oborne's article in The Spectator (UK): http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/600916/part_1/in-zimbabwe-hope-has-turned-to-silent-terror.thtml

Gives an interesting viewpoint on the lections and refers to parts of the security forces not agreeing with ZANU-PF. Oborne is a London-based columnist, but did a good documentary on Zimbabwe last year.

davidbfpo

Stan
04-15-2008, 02:51 PM
Much like years of abuse in Zaire, the opposition's call for a general strike in protest of the current impasse simply never happened. Folks still need to work and eat, and politics has never been a factor til the soldiers strike with weapons and burn tires in the streets :wry:


Zimbabwe opposition strike fails (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7347705.stm)

Many Zimbabwean shops and businesses are open as usual despite opposition calls for a general strike to press for election results to be published.

Correspondents say many people cannot afford to lose a day's pay, while some say they have not heard of the strike.

Stan
04-15-2008, 03:01 PM
Well, the pot indeed gets sweeter. Not too much more to ponder over why Mugabe has not yet stepped down (Ala Mobutu anyone ?) :wry:

DRC Leading Copper, Cobalt Producer Eyes Zim (http://allafrica.com/stories/200804150160.html)



Democratic Republic of Congo's leading copper and cobalt producer, Central African Mining and Exploration Company Plc (Camec) intends to develop a US$200 million platinum mine on the Bougai and Kironde claims, 60 kilometres southwest of Gweru within the next 18 months.

This came after Camec agreed to acquire British firm, Lefever Finance Ltd, a British Virgin Islands company which owns 60 percent of Todal Mining (Private) Limited, a Zimbabwean company, which in turn has rights to the two claims.

Camec added that Todal has the right to export platinum from Zimbabwe and has also secured an agreement to allow it to expatriate the profits generated by its mining operations in the country. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has extended to Todal the same fiscal incentives as had been granted to Unki Mines (Private) Limited under the Special Mining Lease Agreement for the development of their Unki project.

Tom Odom
04-15-2008, 08:10 PM
Here we go with the shadow war again...


Victims tell of torture and murder in Robert Mugabe's 'disloyal' strongholds (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3746879.ece)

Jamie Walker in Harare

Harold was just another footsore traveller when Robert Mugabe’s thugs came for him. Spotting his Movement for Democratic Change T-shirt, they surrounded him and marched him off to “try” him before a “people’s court”, denounce him as a traitor, before beating him, stripping him, sexually abusing him and tying him up with his own shoelaces with his head forced between his legs.

Harold endured a seven-hour ordeal before he was able to escape his captors, by then drunk on cheap homemade spirit. Others were less lucky. Yesterday news of the first killings emerged in what is becoming a coordinated and escalating terror campaign against the Opposition before an expected election run-off.

Tapiwa Mubwanda, an MDC electoral agent, was stabbed to death on Saturday night by a mob of Zanu (PF) militiamen while an unnamed teacher and opposition supporter was beaten to death in Mudzi, north of Harare.

Stan
04-16-2008, 11:19 AM
Dumisani Khumalo (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7349955.stm), South Africa's ambassador to the UN on the heals of a special session at the UN today...


"We, the neighbours are doing something about Zimbabwe, you may not agree with it but we are doing something."


EDIT:
Congrats President Mugabe, you just made the top of FP's The List (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4279): The Next Dictators to Go !


With Robert Mugabe tottering after the elections in Zimbabwe, which other tyrants are quaking in their boots?

Why he won’t: Mugabe is thought to be preparing a campaign of violence in an effort to stay in power. ... Analysts think Mugabe is trying to postpone a second round so that he will have time to regroup and concoct a violent response. For as even one of Mugabe’s fellow Zanu-PF party members recognized, a runoff vote would be a “suicide mission.”

Stan
04-17-2008, 07:50 PM
A Chinese ship allegedly carrying armaments for the Zimbabwean army (http://allafrica.com/stories/200804170081.html) was cleared to dock in Durban yesterday afternoon, following a long wait for clearance outside the harbour.


The Democratic Alliance 's spokesperson on defence, Rafeek Shah, said the vessel was alleged to be carrying several container-loads of weapons for the Zimbabwe Defence Force, including mortars, more than 3000 mortar bombs and 1500 rocket-propelled grenades.

However, the vessel's captain, in a radio phone interview with Sapa, denied that it was carrying "dangerous cargo".

Shah's information is that the ship is carrying 3800 cases of weaponry and ammunition in six containers, that the delivery address is the Zimbabwe Defence Force, Causeway, Harare, and the point of origin on the cargo manifest is Beijing.

Stan
04-18-2008, 02:48 PM
Zimbabwean President (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7353929.stm) Robert Mugabe has denounced the opposition and former colonial power Britain in his first speech since the disputed elections.


"Down with thieves who want to steal our country," he told crowds marking 28 years of independence.

Meanwhile, South African dock workers are refusing to unload a shipment of arms from China destined for Zimbabwe.

The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union said it did "not agree with the position of the government not to intervene".

Stan
04-19-2008, 04:50 PM
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (AP) (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ilSxEmtTCRLu6Vze0qXdbW-VfrrwD904HIQ00) — A Chinese ship carrying weapons destined for Zimbabwe's government left the South African harbor where workers refused to unload it Friday and headed for neighboring Mozambique, an independent human rights group said.


The ship sailed from Durban on Friday evening soon after a high court ordered that the cargo not be moved, said Nicole Fritz, director of the Southern Africa Litigation Center, which asked the court to intervene to stop the arms from being transported to politically troubled Zimbabwe.

The ship An Yue Jiang had anchored just outside Durban harbor after receiving permission late Wednesday to dock. Its arrival earlier this week increased concern about tensions in Zimbabwe, where the ruling party and the opposition are locked in a dispute over who won the presidential election.

A South African government official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, had confirmed weapons were on board but gave no further details.

Fritz said the Durban High Court granted an order suspending the ship's conveyance permit and saying there should be "no movement of the containers in which the arms kept and no movement of the ship."

However, she said, lawyers were told by the court's sheriff that when an attempt was made to serve the order on the ship, the vessel was already sailing away, she said. She said other sources had confirmed the ship was headed for Mozambique, which lies on landlocked Zimbabwe's eastern border.

Port workers in Durban and truck drivers had said earlier in the day that they would not unload the weapons or transport them to Zimbabwe.

Stan
04-21-2008, 07:40 PM
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (AP) (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ilSxEmtTCRLu6Vze0qXdbW-VfrrwD904HIQ00) — A Chinese ship carrying weapons destined for Zimbabwe's government left the South African harbor where workers refused to unload it Friday and headed for neighboring Mozambique, an independent human rights group said.


Unions Mobilize to Stop Weapons (http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211124.html)


Cape Town

The governments of both Mozambique and Tanzania have refused to allow a Chinese ship carrying weapons for Zimbabwe to offload its cargo in their ports, a South African newspaper reported on Monday.

As news agencies reported that the vessel, An Yue Jiang, was headed up the south-west coast of Africa towards Angola, South African union activists scrambled to stop the arms from being delivered to President Robert Mugabe's government.

The report on Mozambique and Tanzania's action was carried by the Johannesburg newspaper, Beeld. The newspaper also reported that sources in the South African Navy said the progress of the ship was being tracked. However, they suggested it would stay out of South African waters for fear of being intercepted.

marct
04-21-2008, 07:57 PM
Well, at least some people are keeping a sense of (viscious) humour...



Our Father Mugabe,
who art in Harare,
how bad is your name that it can be hated in all corners of the world?
Thy kingdom is no more,
Give us this day our poll results
and forgive us for voting you out
as we forgive you for trying to rig the votes.
Lead us not into stoning you, but deliver us from your policies.
For thine is the cruelty, the poverty and the shame.
Amen


From here (http://www.africanews.com/site/list_messages/17465) (and there's some more too....)

Ron Humphrey
04-22-2008, 03:34 AM
Well, at least some people are keeping a sense of (viscious) humour...



From here (http://www.africanews.com/site/list_messages/17465) (and there's some more too....)

Read it somewhere that they are re tabulating the votes. Something slightly unsettling about votes being recounted by the loser:(

I'm sure they'll get it straightened out though. Just remeber not to bring your abacus if visiting Mugabe right now. He might get a little tense.

Stan
04-22-2008, 06:28 AM
This will certainly be a first on the continent, if all the African leaders (sans Mugabe) manage to send this Chinese ship home without docking. Perhaps some ship-side bargain sales along the horn :cool:


Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7360002.stm) has urged other African leaders not to allow a ship carrying arms for Zimbabwe to enter their territorial waters.

Zimbabwe's Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa said it was their right to defend themselves and buy weapons from any legitimate source.

"I don't understand all this hullabaloo about a lone ship," he told reporters.

Recount again delayed
A recount in 23 out of 210 parliamentary seats, which had been due to end on Monday, was delayed for an unknown period.

davidbfpo
04-22-2008, 10:12 AM
According to The Sunday Times (UK) newspaper at the weekend Jacob Zuma, the South African ANC leader and President in waiting (for Mbeki to retire) praised Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC Opposition leader and indicated he would take a different stance to Mbeki.

For Zuma, who is commonly regarded as far more radical than Mbeki, to take such a stance is interesting. The Mbeki -v- Zuma power struggle alas maybe the main influence.

Here is the link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3779903.ece

davidbfpo

Stan
04-22-2008, 11:48 AM
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7360438.stm) Jiang Yu said the weapons were ordered last year and were "perfectly normal".


The International Transport Workers Federation says it has asked its members across Africa not to help unload the An Yue Jiang, which is reportedly carrying three million rounds of ammunition, 1,500 rocket-propelled grenades and 2,500 mortar rounds.

Ron Humphrey
04-22-2008, 12:30 PM
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7360438.stm) Jiang Yu said the weapons were ordered last year and were "perfectly normal".

I wonder what the ransom would be if the pirate's got a hold of this one?

Stan
04-22-2008, 01:19 PM
I wonder what the ransom would be if the pirate's got a hold of this one?

Good call, Ron :D

I had this morbid thought (which, BTW, has little to do with my decade or so in Sub-Sahara) there would be a port-side bargain basement sale. Winner take all, Jungle Rules apply. Had this ship even remotely tried to dock in Matadi, Zaire, there'd be very little left to squander, and the ship may even set sail elsewhere while the crew are entertained up the street at one of then 50 brothels :wry:

davidbfpo
04-22-2008, 09:16 PM
I refer to my earlier thread on Jacob Zuma's comments on Zimbabwe, which are important as he is South Africa's president in waiting.

The BBC has a this report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7360438.stm

Which contains this quoute from Zuma: 'It's not acceptable. It's not helping the Zimbabwean people who have gone out to ... elect the kind of party and presidential candidate they want, exercising their constitutional right".

davidbfpo

marct
04-22-2008, 09:49 PM
From allAfrica.com


Zimbabwe: Arms Ship Due in Walvis Bay Today
The Namibian (Windhoek)
22 April 2008
Posted to the web 22 April 2008

Christof Maletsky
Windhoek

A CHINESE ship carrying six containers of ammunition for Zimbabwe has applied to take on fuel at Walvis Bay this morning.

The An Yue Jiang is carrying three million rounds of AK-47 ammunition, 1 500 rocket-propelled grenades and more than 3 000 mortar rounds and mortar tubes.

On another note, if you are on Facebook, there is a new group called Put Pressure on Robert Mugabe (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=11815073299)that has some good information being posted on it.

marct
04-22-2008, 09:59 PM
From the Put Pressure on Robert Mugabe (http://www.facebook.com/photo_search.php?oid=11815073299&view=all) Facebook group...

http://photos-450.ll.facebook.com/photos-ll-sf2p/v231/185/105/730960450/n730960450_2784107_9784.jpg

This is the inside of his private bus (more photos at the group, photographer unknown). Nice to know that Mugabe will be able to relax in the style to which he has become accustomed :rolleyes:.

Ron Humphrey
04-22-2008, 10:58 PM
From the Put Pressure on Robert Mugabe (http://www.facebook.com/photo_search.php?oid=11815073299&view=all) Facebook group...

http://photos-450.ll.facebook.com/photos-ll-sf2p/v231/185/105/730960450/n730960450_2784107_9784.jpg

This is the inside of his private bus (more photos at the group, photographer unknown). Nice to know that Mugabe will be able to relax in the style to which he has become accustomed :rolleyes:.

He'll at least have somewhere comfortable to stay once he finally gets hoisted out on his petard:cool:

Tom Odom
04-23-2008, 12:42 PM
Emerging news....

told ya'll the old bastage had more tricks up his sleeve

CNN said this morning that Mugabe had announced that he won the vote based on a recount

Written articles have not caught up with that announcement

Some indicate that ZANU-PF won an additional parliament seat in Grormonzi West

Tom

Stan
04-23-2008, 01:06 PM
Hey Tom !
The BBC reports claim that neither party has the 51% needed... So, another recount, if you please :wry:

Meanwhile back at the Bat Cave (in London), PM Brown is doing a traditional USG thingy called 'embargo' :D I think Ron was right wondering about Somalian pirates gettin' a hold of the Chinese ship. On the other hand, the Chinese crew could make good use of the RPGs and practice on the pirates from say 150 meters :) Damn, I'm almost jealous with envy at the thought :D

Regards, Stan

Stan
04-23-2008, 01:35 PM
From the Put Pressure on Robert Mugabe (http://www.facebook.com/photo_search.php?oid=11815073299&view=all) Facebook group...

This is the inside of his private bus (more photos at the group, photographer unknown). Nice to know that Mugabe will be able to relax in the style to which he has become accustomed :rolleyes:.

Ya know, Marc, this bus was a birthday present from Zimbabwe's 'all-weather friend', China :cool:


Harare (http://news.monstersandcritics.com/asiapacific/news/article_1267481.php) - China has given Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe a luxury coach for his 83rd birthday, the official Herald reported Thursday.

The coach, meant for the use of Mugabe's family, was presented to the president by the Chinese ambassador to Zimbabwe, Yuan Nansheng on Wednesday.

So, it was apparently free :D

Stan
04-23-2008, 02:56 PM
for Chinese ship's Zimbabwe-bound cargo...

Famous last words ! (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/22/europe/EU-GEN-Germany-Zimbabwe-Chinese-Ship.php)


"We did not know at any time that the ship was carrying weapons," Strumpf said. "We would have never accepted weapons." :wry:


BERLIN: A German bank obtained a court order to impound the cargo of a Chinese ship carrying weapons for Zimbabwe as it tries to recover unpaid debts from the southern African country, officials said Tuesday.

But KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH, a subsidiary of Germany's state-owned KfW development bank, was unaware that the An Yue Jiang was carrying arms when it obtained the order from a South African court last week, spokeswoman Dela Strumpf said.

On Thursday, KfW IPEX-Bank obtained an court order in Durban, South Africa, to impound the ship's Zimbabwean-owned cargo because the Zimbabwean government still owes the German bank about €40 million (US$63 million at current rates), Strumpf said.

Ron Humphrey
04-23-2008, 03:33 PM
for Chinese ship's Zimbabwe-bound cargo...

Famous last words ! (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/22/europe/EU-GEN-Germany-Zimbabwe-Chinese-Ship.php)

Who exactly will be enforcing this impound order?
And What time do the fireworks start?

I want to get a good seat;)

Stan
04-24-2008, 10:50 AM
Who exactly will be enforcing this impound order?
And What time do the fireworks start?

I want to get a good seat;)

Well, Ron, in the carefully worded press release from the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Ms Jiang, the 'World's policeman (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364573.stm)' dunnit :eek:



"Some people in the US are always critical, positioning themselves as the world's policeman, but they are not popular in the world," Ms Jiang said, adding that the decision had been taken by the shipping company.

"It's pointless... to politicise this issue."

Zimbabwe arms returning to China (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364573.stm)


"The shipment will be returning," said spokeswoman Jiang Yu.

The US had urged China to recall the shipment, while the UK has said it will propose an international arms embargo on landlocked Zimbabwe.

Ron Humphrey
04-24-2008, 12:28 PM
Well, Ron, in the carefully worded press release from the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Ms Jiang, the 'World's policeman (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364573.stm)' dunnit :eek:



Zimbabwe arms returning to China (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364573.stm)


But somebody has to do it
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:KftiUs6dNxizLM:http://www.watchingamerica.com/images/superman_pic.jpeg

:cool:

Stan
04-24-2008, 08:52 PM
U.S. envoy Jendayi Frazer (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/24/zimbabwe.ship/index.html?eref=time_world) told reporters that Morgan Tsvangirai was a clear winner in the election and "My preferred option would be that the will of the people will be accepted. That Mr. Mugabe does the honorable thing and steps down."


In an interview with CNN, Frazer said: "We are certain that Morgan Tsvangirai won based on the reporting of the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network and other independent monitors.

"I think he (Mugabe) is -- with this great delay in announcement -- trying to steal the election. He is intimidating population and election officials as well. (We've) also heard reports of the police stuffing ballots."

Frazer also raised the possibility that Mugabe was no longer running Zimbabwe and that it was the security forces which are refusing to acknowledge the election result.

"There are reports that are generals are the ones who said to him we will not accept your defeat, we will not accept victory of Morgan Tsvangirai. That is what is being reported," she said. "And the way the security apparatus has fanned out across the country many are saying there has been a quiet coup de etat.

Stan
04-25-2008, 09:01 PM
Angola allows arms ship to dock (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7368208.stm) :rolleyes:


Zimbabwe needs to arm itself more than any other country in Africa today for the simple reason that it has been targeted for destabilisation


Angola's government has authorised a Chinese ship carrying arms destined for Zimbabwe to dock, although it says it will not be allowed to unload weapons.

In a statement, the government said the vessel would only be allowed to deliver goods intended for Angola.

Zimbabwe's state-run Herald newspaper condemned the country's neighbours as "myopic stooges" for refusing to let the cargo dock. "Zimbabwe is... under attack from the former coloniser and its allies. As such, Zimbabwe probably needs to arm itself more than any other country in Africa today,"

davidbfpo
04-25-2008, 10:17 PM
Sarcasm is a far better response to The Herald's statement, as reported above.

I can hear Gordon Brown announce 'The UK has decided that the vital supplies of emptying ballot boxes from Zimbabwe, the world's leading democracy, are in danger from overuse and I have authorised HMS Gunboat to sail immediately to Harare. We expect Robert Mugabe to release all the detained ballot boxes in time for their use here on 1st May 2008, in our local government elections when we will win all the votes'.

Sorry two glasses of wine after a long day and despair at the situation in Zimbabwe. Church leaders declare genocide is in prospect in Zimbabwe and we focus on a Chinese arms shipment.

davidbfpo

Ron Humphrey
04-25-2008, 10:50 PM
Sarcasm is a far better response to The Herald's statement, as reported above.

I can hear Gordon Brown announce 'The UK has decided that the vital supplies of emptying ballot boxes from Zimbabwe, the world's leading democracy, are in danger from overuse and I have authorised HMS Gunboat to sail immediately to Harare. We expect Robert Mugabe to release all the detained ballot boxes in time for their use here on 1st May 2008, in our local government elections when we will win all the votes'.

Sorry two glasses of wine after a long day and despair at the situation in Zimbabwe. Church leaders declare genocide is in prospect in Zimbabwe and we focus on a Chinese arms shipment.

davidbfpo

I tend to always be quite wary when someone tries to bring fuel to an already hot situation just waiting for the sparks. I tend to think if their bringing fuel their probably bringing something to light it with too.:(

I haven't seen what Nigeria or South Africa are actually doing to help avoid that genocide though. Kinda on hold waiting to see what comes of that.

Stan
04-26-2008, 06:19 AM
And I would echo Ron's comments, although I like a bit of sarcasm with my Friday beers - Cheers David :p

It may very well be the first time an African conflict died running out of ammo. I can only (barely) imagine what would have happened to Zaire years ago if they suddenly ran out. The Rwandans were very skilled with machetes, but not the Zairians (the machete simply doesn't make that cool sound, and besides, it requires physical movement) :wry:

Regards, Stan

Tom Odom
05-01-2008, 06:37 PM
Well here we go. Mugabe moves to check Tsvangirai's King, who must now move his piece or lose. Of course if he accepts a run off, then the cycle of beatings and killings starts anew with greater intensity.





Official: Mugabe will retain power if no run-off vote (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/05/01/tsvangirai.runoff/index.html)JOHANNESBURG, South Africa (CNN) -- President Robert Mugabe will win re-election by default if opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai declines to participate in a run-off, the head of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission told CNN on Thursday.

1 of 3 His remarks came as the verification process, at which party officials were to review voting figures, began Thursday afternoon.

Neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai attended, sending representatives instead. However independent candidate Simba Makoni attended himself.

Journalists were allowed inside for only a few minutes as the process began, The Associated Press reports.

Stan
05-01-2008, 07:16 PM
Well here we go. Mugabe moves to check Tsvangirai's King, who must now move his piece or lose. Of course if he accepts a run off, then the cycle of beatings and killings starts anew with greater intensity.

Hey Tom,
Nothing like a good slap in the (de)face to liven things up. I got a real kick outta the fact both Mugabe and Tsvangirai were not present during the verification process.

But, what I really enjoyed reading was Zimbabwe police chief Augustine Chihuri's
statement....


The old trick of claiming human rights violations when somebody steps on your toe, yet you yourself are poking out other people's eyes, will not work

Now that's a keeper :D

Ron Humphrey
05-01-2008, 07:20 PM
Well here we go. Mugabe moves to check Tsvangirai's King, who must now move his piece or lose. Of course if he accepts a run off, then the cycle of beatings and killings starts anew with greater intensity.

tied to an internationally approved voting machine going around the country (with escort) and letting the people know by their presence that whether they ending up being punished or not their sacrifices won't be in vain?

If not my next guess would be the opposition making a concerted effort to bolster physical resistance against expected physical attacks. And somehow I doubt the term civil disobedience will apply:(

Ron Humphrey
05-01-2008, 11:49 PM
Non of this should have been much of a surprise to anyone

Mar 25 interview on Al Jazeera

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLldzFA9H-E

It was interesting to note the entirety of those countries to which he mentions looking to for investment are all those for whom his style of governance is acceptable if not preferred.

JJackson
05-02-2008, 01:43 PM
Mugabe losses but no one gets 51% => re run and another chance to 'get it right'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7380445.stm

Stan
05-02-2008, 05:07 PM
Mugabe's regime needs time to execute his grand strategy (if you could call it that). Some profound shenanigans lately all in the name of buying more time in order to get his intimidation and violence in order. Mugabe now legally has another 3 weeks to make Sierra happen and again ponder how he can demand 90 days.

It's far from over !

jcustis
05-02-2008, 06:25 PM
It's time Mugabe took an inopportune fall down a flight of stairs.:wry:

davidbfpo
05-02-2008, 10:08 PM
It's time Mugabe took an inopportune fall down a flight of stairs.:wry:

Given the power held by ZANU-PF's leaders, or shall we better call them robber barons, it will not be just Robert Mugabe who needs to fall. Indeed there are some who commented weeks ago Mugabe would have stood down, but others feared for their positions and lives so persauded him to stay on.

There was an email from a Zimbabwean socialist critic of the MDC who asked where was their strategy for safeguarding democracy, especially hard hitting as this is not the first time Mugabe has cheated. Even suggested that the power elite, yes the robber barons and the MDC could form a coalition government. A point of view not mine.

davidbfpo

Schmedlap
05-02-2008, 11:16 PM
It's time Mugabe took an inopportune fall down a flight of stairs.:wry:

The Economic Intelligence Unit has rated cities according to their stability, health care, culture, environment, education and infrastructure. Harare, Zimbabwe ranked dead last (shocking, I know). Maybe the stairs will fall out from under him.

Steve Blair
05-07-2008, 04:53 PM
I must admit my middling ignorance of what's happened in Africa in terms of recent history, but this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7388214.stm) might be of interest to those who harbor lingering hope for Mugabe's basic good nature.
The terrible wounds which Robert Mugabe's Fifth Brigade inflicted on Matabeleland in the early 1980s still show.

The countryside is under-populated, there is even less employment in the towns than there is in the rest of Zimbabwe, and people are scared to talk.

Kenyatta
05-07-2008, 05:54 PM
Hopefully Mugabe falls preety soon, hopefully he gets tried or better yet go the way Ceauşescu went in Romania(a full 30 round 7.62 combloc clip from a AK-47 will do the trick, cheap too.).

Another guy who's has his fate tied with Mugabe is the wanted and exiled Haile Mariam Mengistu, Stalin of Ethiopia now residing in comfortable and well guarded exile in Zimbabwe.

The Ethiopians want him real bad...

If Mugabe falls maybe its two for the price of one....

Tom Odom
05-07-2008, 06:02 PM
I must admit my middling ignorance of what's happened in Africa in terms of recent history, but this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7388214.stm) might be of interest to those who harbor lingering hope for Mugabe's basic good nature.

When I traveled trough Zimbabwe in 1984, we were forbidden to go into Matabeleland. The embassy was well aware of the 5th Brigade's depredations and was trying to get the unit demobilized. That of course fell flat.

the next year I was at CGSC on staff and I sponsored a Zimbabwean captain who was Ndebele. He would talk at length about the Selous Scouts and how they had done a number on his fellow insurgents. I even gave him my copy of the book as a going away present; he was ecstatic. He would not talk about his family and how it was faring under Mugabe's push against the Matabele.

Tom

Tom Odom
05-08-2008, 02:56 PM
A round up of grim news taken from the SWJ Blog OpEds. This is the sort of thing that a common narrative coordinated between State and Africom must be worked behind the scenes to bring greater African pressure to bear. The common agreement has long been to refrain from criticizing fellow African leaders, largely on the protocol that one big man does not fault another big man's actions or policies. So far Africa as a whole is not stepping up...

Tom


Zimbabwe Youths Kill Opposition Activists (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/07/AR2008050702252.html)
11 Die in Escalation of Post-Election Violence
JOHANNESBURG, May 7 -- Gangs of youths loyal to Zimbabwe's ruling party beat to death 11 opposition activists in a remote town this week in an escalation of post-election violence, opposition party officials and witnesses said Wednesday.

Two large truckloads of youths, led by two senior members of President Robert Mugabe's party, marauded through Chiweshe, a rural area about 90 miles north of the capital, Harare, and beat prominent opposition members with branches, gun butts, bicycle chains and whips, party officials said. Four of the victims were teachers, and at least two were elderly.


Violence in Zimbabwe Disrupts Schools and Aid (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/world/africa/08zimbabwe.html?ref=world)
JOHANNESBURG — Zimbabwe’s ruling party, bent on retaining control after 28 years in power, has broadened its campaign of intimidation and violence to include teachers and even aid workers, disrupting education and basic care for tens of thousands of children across the country, according to humanitarian groups, union officials and the teachers themselves....

“We’re giving the people of Zimbabwe another opportunity to mend their ways, to vote properly,” the Politburo member said. “This is their last chance.”

If voters fail to return Mr. Mugabe to office, the Politburo member told a Zimbabwean journalist working with The New York Times, “Prepare to be a war correspondent.”



Mass challenge over Zimbabwe poll (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7387738.stm)
Half of the results from Zimbabwe's parliamentary polls in March have been challenged in court, state media says.
Lawyers say the 105 petitions should not disrupt the work of parliament, but could in the end overturn the opposition's historic majority.
The announcement came as southern African mediators arrived for talks over the presidential run-off impasse.

davidbfpo
05-09-2008, 02:45 PM
Came via en emailing list on Zimbabwe I use, thirteen minutes and yes it is partisan. Have a peek: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4352182364684050632&q=a+crisis+in+zimbabwe&ei=-gEgSNGqK5D6jQKg35XDAQ

davidbfpo

Stan
05-09-2008, 03:08 PM
Nice video, David !

"Things will never, ever change."

Mr. President, well put :wry:

Ron Humphrey
05-11-2008, 03:18 AM
Is there any chance leaders from some of those countries with influence there to make Mugabe feel responsible for ensuring his opponents safety since he's so confident he will win on his own merits?

It would seem only representative of a truly great leader that he be able to win through election and not the representative cowardice of intimidation buuut since we have to realize that he really can't control what some of his younger more (shall we say enthusiastic) supporters do, that he would never-the-less be able to ensure the safety of his counter-part in the election.

Does this seem like an unreasonable request to anyone?

And if not how do you make it stick, or in other words if he can't provide that protection what are the consequences, if any?

Stan
05-11-2008, 07:14 AM
Hey Ron,
I think we can safely assume based on historical African destiny, that most African opposition leaders see no mercy. If fact, many of Zaire's minuscule opposition leaders that are alive fled with their entire family tree and pets.

This 2003 Statement on Zimbabwe (http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/10310) to President Mugabe only created an even harsher environment for his opposition parties.

I don't think Mugabe is remotely interested in protecting Tsvangirai or any other MDC member, and is too shortsighted to realize it would be in his best interests.

Regards, Stan

Stan
05-16-2008, 08:57 AM
Zimbabwe bank issues $500m note (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7402943.stm)


The central bank has issued a 500m Zimbabwe dollar banknote, worth US$2, to try to ease cash shortages amid the world's highest rate of inflation.
The previous highest denomination note was for Z$250m, issued 10 days ago. At independence in 1980, one Zimbabwe dollar was worth more than US$1.

Let hope not blind us to Mugabe’s ruthlessness (http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A767623)


As it turns out, it’s hard to mediate between good and evil. Zimbabwe’s high court left Mugabe in control of the votes (expected), but freed MDC activists from detention (minimally laudable). Despite scornful rhetoric from the west and Zimbabwean civil society, Mugabe will survive yet again, absent bold action.

Last month, we were treated to the saga of the Chinese Flying Dutchman, bearing arms for Mugabe but barred entry by South African dock workers, and even the Angolan government. It turns out the arms got through Angola anyway, while the media focused on supposed African unanimity in keeping Zimbabwe arms-free.

A fine idea — an arms embargo against Zimbabwe. A nice symbolic move, with little practical effect. Yet symbolism that conceals that foolish hopes, uninformed by common sense, can be worse than no hope at all.

Too many commentators let their happy hopes obscure reality, suggesting that Mugabe was on the — democratic! — way out. Alas, the “soft power” of moral suasion, diplomatic pressure, and pointed outspokenness is essential but inadequate for countries struggling to throw off tyranny. Even soft power demands a moral backbone, and sometimes a boldly waved stick. Good wishes for Zimbabwe are everywhere, but even the words are timid.

davidbfpo
05-21-2008, 08:22 PM
Still catching up on missed news and several reports on the Chinese arms shipment being unloaded. This is quite detailed, note South African Navy refuelled the ship and a UK-reg'd, Zimbabwe-based air transport operator moved the weaposn to Harare.

Read on: http://www.sundayherald.com/international/shinternational/display.var.2278991.0.arms_from_chinas_ship_of_sha me_reach_mugabe.php

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
05-21-2008, 08:25 PM
Subject: Zimbabwe violence "shocks" SA generals - Business Day, 14 May

RETIRED South African army generals investigating post-election violence in Zimbabwe have uncovered "shocking levels" of state-sponsored terror, sources close to them say. The continued violence makes any chance of a peaceful runoff election "almost impossible", they say.

When President Thabo Mbeki visited Harare last week, the team's leader, Lt-Gen Gilbert Lebeko Romano, briefed him on their findings. The violence intensified after it was confirmed that President Robert Mugabe and his ruling Zanu (PF) had lost to the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the March 29 poll.

Senior members of the investigating team said their findings were "alarming" and that most of the violence was state sponsored, although the opposition had also retaliated. "What we have heard and seen is shocking. We have heard horrific stories of extreme brutality and seen the victims," said one of the generals.

"We have seen people with scars, cuts, gashes, bruises, lacerations and broken limbs, and bodies of those killed. It's a horrifying picture."

The incident which has shocked the investigators most happened at Chaona village in the Chiweshe area last Monday. A Zanu (PF) MP is believed to have led an armed gang of 45 in an attack on MDC activists, leaving four dead. Three other victims died later and at least 50 people were seriously injured.

"It was a ferocious onslaught on the village. We have never seen anything like that before. The village is still in a state of shock and we now live in fear," said an eye - witness at the Avenues Clinic in Harare, where some of the victims have been admitted.

The team of generals has met government, Zanu (PF) and opposition officials, civil society leaders and other interest groups.

I'll not comment.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
05-21-2008, 10:07 PM
The Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) has today 20 May 2008 released a Post March 29th 2008 Elections Violence Report No. 1 entitled "Beaten, wounded, bleeding and even lost life for exercising my right to vote":

http://www.kubatana.net/html/archive/hr/080519zpp.asp?sector=HR

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
05-30-2008, 05:34 PM
Well here you go: the definitive answer from Mugabe's trophy wife:

Mugabe will keep office, wife says (http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/may/30/mugabe-will-keep-office-wife-says/)
Leader not intending to hand over power, regardless of runoff
SHAMVA, Zimbabwe - President Robert Mugabe will never vacate his office for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai even if he loses a runoff election next month, the Zimbabwean leader's wife said yesterday.

Grace Mugabe told followers of her husband's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party that Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) would not be allowed to take power under any circumstances.

“Even if people vote for the MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai will never step foot inside State House,” she said after meeting victims of political violence that has rocked Zimbabwe since the first round of voting on March 29.

Tom Odom
06-05-2008, 01:59 PM
While Mugabe was denouncing the US and UK in Rome for Zimbabwe's starvation:


Mugabe rival resumes campaign after detention (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/05/zimbabwe.main/index.html)
(CNN) -- Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe's opposition, has returned to campaigning, agencies report, the day after he was detained by police for almost 10 hours.

1 of 2 In a statement reported by The Associated Press, Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change, said that President Robert Mugabe was ready to "try and steal" the presidential runoff vote between the two men.

"Our resolve for a new beginning, and a new Zimbabwe remains unshaken," Tsvangirai added. "We are convinced of the justness of our cause, and we will not waver until we restore the dignity of all the people of Zimbabwe."

And a long term Zimbabwe resident hopes Mugabe wins:


Mugabe rivals: Mengistu must face justice (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/05/28/ethiopia.zimbabwe/index.html#cnnSTCText?iref=werecommend)
(CNN) -- Ethiopian ex-dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam may be forced from exile in Zimbabwe to face a death sentence at home if President Robert Mugabe is ousted in an upcoming election, an opposition spokesman indicated Tuesday.

Mengistu, who fled to Zimbabwe after he was deposed in 1991, was sentenced to death on Monday after he was found guilty in absentia of committing genocide during his 16-year rule.

With no extradition treaty, according to legal experts, Mugabe's government is unlikely to act on the ruling, but the situation could change if his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) rivals win a June 27 presidential vote runoff.

Tom Odom
06-05-2008, 02:13 PM
Breaking news on CNN as of 0900 Central Daylight Time 5 June


Convoy of American and British diplomats attacked in Zimbabwe, U.S. ambassador says.


more to follow as it comes out...

Steve Blair
06-05-2008, 02:46 PM
BBC's take is here (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7438275.stm).

US ambassador James McGee told the BBC there had been a bid to force their convoy off the road in Bindura after they refused to go to a police station.

He said their tyres were later slashed and a Zimbabwean driver working with a US security official was beaten up.

Tom Odom
06-05-2008, 03:02 PM
this is the second incident with US dips and the Zimbabwean security/political thugs that I know of. Ain't democracy great?

davidbfpo
06-06-2008, 08:48 PM
Appeared in The (UK) Daily Telegarph today, based on an un-named diplomatic source:

Leading story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2080992/Zimbabwean-generals-%27have-taken-Robert-Mugabe%27s-power%27.html

Short profiles of Mugabe's military cabal: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2084504/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe%27s-military-cabal.html

I am sure specialist analysts, e.g. Africa Confidential have reported this aspect or conclusion before. Note it appeared after the US-UK diplomatic incident.

davidbfpo

Stan
06-12-2008, 06:33 AM
Appeared in The (UK) Daily Telegarph today, based on an un-named diplomatic source:

Leading story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2080992/Zimbabwean-generals-%27have-taken-Robert-Mugabe%27s-power%27.html
davidbfpo

Documents obtained... suggest that the Zimbabwean military (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7449704.stm) is actively involved in running the re-election campaign for Robert Mugabe.


The documents suggest that the JOC, or Joint Operations Command, is now actively helping to conduct the president's campaign, running logistics and operations. The JOC is made up of the heads of the military and state security organisations.

Another document lays out the party's tactics, including the use of scarce food supplies as a political weapon.

"Basic commodities should be sold from either people's shops or pro-Zanu PF shops," it says. "Emphasis should be in party strongholds."

davidbfpo
06-12-2008, 07:22 AM
Documents obtained... suggest that the Zimbabwean military (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7449704.stm) is actively involved in running the re-election campaign for Robert Mugabe.

This all comes as no surprise; the Zimbabwean military and police are so committed to Mugabe's remaining in power. Logistics, propaganda and ensuring any violence by ZANU-PF is dished out without interference (the courts come to mind in particular). The election is two weeks away and it will be exceptionally brave Zimbabweans, mainly living outside the cities, who vote against Mugabe.

Sad.

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
06-12-2008, 03:03 PM
Now is the time for fellow African states to start actively condemning Mugabe and his apparatus. South Africa's government given longstanding Western efforts to bring about changes there should now be leading this chorus.


Robert Mugabe's militia burn opponent’s wife alive (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4116638.ece)

The men who pulled up in three white pickup trucks were looking for Patson Chipiro, head of the Zimbabwean opposition party in Mhondoro district. His wife, Dadirai, told them he was in Harare but would be back later in the day, and the men departed.

An hour later they were back. They grabbed Mrs Chipiro and chopped off one of her hands and both her feet. Then they threw her into her hut, locked the door and threw a petrol bomb through the window.

Steve Blair
06-12-2008, 06:35 PM
And the saga continues....from BBC: Mugabe critic on treason charge (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7451234.stm).

The secretary general of Zimbabwe's main opposition party will be charged with treason and faces a possible death sentence, the police have said.

Tom Odom
06-14-2008, 02:05 PM
African leaders unite to denounce Mugabe’s violence (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4133403.ece)

In a rare reprimand, Botswana called in the Zimbabwean Ambassador to protest about Mr Biti’s arrest and the repeated detention of the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Forty of Africa’s most prominent figures, including the former leaders of Ghana, Nigeria and Mozambique, also signed an open letter calling for the violence to cease.

About damn time and it figures Botswana would take the first real step...

Because South Africa clearly is not stepping up...


South Africa: going south
Mbeki's failures are damaging not his own country, but its neighbours, too (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article4133330.ece)

The atrocities now being committed daily in Zimbabwe have reached a bestial nadir. Those daring to challenge Robert Mugabe are beaten and killed. Their wives are mutilated and burnt alive in their homes. Their villages are denied food and their families starved into submission. The bravery and tenacity, nevertheless, of Morgan Tsvangirai and fellow opposition supporters is extraordinary and heartening.

What is appalling, however, is that as Zimbabwe disintegrates, the country that could have done much to halt the brutalities and avert the chaos stands by in shameful silence. South Africa's failure to curb Mr Mugabe's excesses is a terrible indictment of its leadership. But it is also a warning. South Africa itself is in trouble. The powerhouse of Africa is running out of power.

davidbfpo
06-14-2008, 08:32 PM
Much diplomatic and media comment has been expended on urging Zimbabwe's neighbours, notably South Africa, and the wider African community to pressurise Zimbabwe to allow free elections. Alas South Africa's current government shows little sign of changing its policy, which is effectively to do nothing.

The only people who can change Zimbabwe, to allow free elections, are those in charge now - ZANU-PF and their police / military partners. An unlikely prospect.

So who can bring change? The people of Zimbabwe in the forthcoming presidential election, if they vote and do not vote for Mugabe.

There was a BBC radio report today from a rural part of Zimbabwe, which traditionally voted for ZANU-PF, that suggests the voters have decided not to vote for Mugabe. Alas the election is not going to be free, fair and counted in a way we would understand is democratic. Refer: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7452828.stm

A few hours ago the BBC reported a speech by Mugabe that he would go to war to stay in power. See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7454569.stm

Just found a report that some are violently reacting to ZANU-PF: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/now-the-opposition-takes-up-arms-in-zimbabwe-846947.html

davidbfpo

MattC86
06-14-2008, 08:54 PM
David -

Excellent links. I'm already missing the BBC's excellent Zimbabwe coverage. Fortunately their NewsPod podcast has some good insights. . .

. . .to what extent do we think the military controls the countryside? Intimidation may be an easier job for the Mugabe-controlled state forces in Harare than around the country. The repeated incidents with US/UK diplomats and NGOs and the like are, I would guess, an effort to get to those he can't physically reach by portraying the outsiders as meddling with Zimbabwe on behalf of the opposition - nothing quite like an old rally-round-the-flag operation. . .

Regards,

Matt

jcustis
06-15-2008, 02:07 AM
I just had the occasion to watch a interview with Heidi Holland, author of the new book on Mugabe, titled Dinner with Mugabe. Seems it is titled as such because she was somewhat intertwined with the nationalist movement at one point, and was making dinner for a meeting that involved 'ole Robert. The book offers a psychological profile of sorts on Mugabe, and explains his transition from freedom fighter to tyrant. She made it very clear that he had indeed become a tyrant, and offered the following observations in the interview (many are paraphrased to the best I can recall).

-Mugabe had significant hopes and dreams for Zimbabwe in the wake of the Lancaster House Agreement, but he was trapped by not only the white Rhodesians, but also by the British, in terms of how he had hoped they would support the new regime.
-He has fancied himself a somewhat British-styled fellow, despite the gharish colorful shirts and baseball caps. He would prefer to be thought of as a gentleman, but his public vilification has in fact contributed to his tyrannical ways. (Of note, I don't recall her saying that he could turn back from that precipice though)
-He came from a very deprived background, so he is socially and psychologically deprived as a result. In her words, "he loves his books better than he loves people." His pursuit of intellectualism would seem to have made him a socialyl closed man with few close friends, and perhaps trapped in his own painful emotional world.
-Mugabe would very much enjoy the offer of a visit to 10 Downing Street, and perhaps after that he might be convinced to step aside in a few years. He has a certain social need that is not being fulfilled, and so until then he will continue to be a fly in the ointment of states that have humiliated him over the years (akin to Castro?)
-Mugabe is almost at the point of wanting someone to stop him and all of his shenanigans, but no one will, so he continues to push the limits of his rule.

I suspect that I will definitely be adding the book to my reading queue, as it seems to be well written and thoughtfully devised. Although he won't receive a pardon from history for the explanation it provides, it seems to explain him nonetheless.

A Holland piece that follows the line of the book is here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/05/zimbabwe

davidbfpo
06-15-2008, 10:00 AM
I'm catching up on my reading and Jon reminds me of this new book, here is a UK review from The Spectator: http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/books/736446/nothing-ever-new-out-of-africa.thtml

Taken from a long review by Trevor Grundy, sent via a Zimbabwe emailing and very telling - makes you wonder that buying the book is unwise:

This is a book worth reading despite its many shortcomings. Ms Holland experienced nothing of political or ordinary life in Zimbabwe from 1982 (she tells us she left the country just ahead of Mugabe's secret police) until she returned to Harare last November when she waited weeks in a local hotel for an interview with the Man Himself one of the strangest interviews I've read in my career as a journalist with some of the author's questions, put to him during a two and a half hours interview at State House, bordering on inanity. Ms Holland is also limited by the fact she speaks not a word of either Shona or Sindebele, Zimbabwe's two main local languages. 'Dinner with Mugabe' is a brave but deeply flawed attempt to answer difficult questions about a complicated man. Yet it is still a thought-provoking work that should engage the mind of anyone with a serious interest in post-colonial Southern Africa. But its claim to tell the "untold story of a freedom fighter who became a tyrant" is ludicrously ambitious, even misleading. This is a piece in a jigsaw puzzle, a part worth having - essential even - but little more than that.

davidbpo

davidbfpo
06-15-2008, 10:12 AM
On a Zimbabwe email I get:

Two weeks before the presidential run-off elections in Zimbabwe,over forty prominent African leaders have released an urgent call for free, fair, peaceful, and transparent elections. The open letter was published on July 13 and July 14 in full-page advertisements in South Africa's Business Day, the Financial Times, and the New York Times. The initial signatories included 18 former presidents or prime ministers, two Nobel Laureates, musicians Youssou N'Dour and Angelique Kidjo, and former United Nations Secretaries General Kofi Annan and Boutros Boutros-Ghali. This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains the full letter and list ofinitial signatories. It is also available, and open to additionalsignatories, at http://www.zimbabwe-27june.com

Several interesting names, but the "gem" is that Graca Machel signed, in her own right and remember she is Nelson Mandela's wife. Now, that is a signal. Pity he didn't sign too.


For previous AfricaFocus bulletins on Zimbabwe, see http://www.africafocus.org/country/zimbabwe.php

davidbfpo
06-18-2008, 08:10 AM
From an opposition group's website: http://www.sokwanele.com/map/electionviolence

What is very obvious from this reporting is the focus on rural areas in the North East that traditionally voted ZANU-PF and few incidents in large chunks of the country, notably the West. Since the North East was where ZANU-PF fought before independence it seems the war veterans have turned on their own.

Link to the background information: http://www.sokwanele.com/map/electionviolence/howto
Link to analysis pie charts: http://www.sokwanele.com/map/electionviolence/analysis
Link to sample testimony: http://www.sokwanele.com/map/electionviolence/testimony

davidbfpo

Norfolk
06-18-2008, 10:49 PM
What is very obvious from this reporting is the focus on rural areas in the North East that traditionally voted ZANU-PF and few incidents in large chunks of the country, notably the West. Since the North East was where ZANU-PF fought before independence it seems the war veterans have turned on their own.

If there was any doubt about ZANU-PF's determination, indeed desperation, to hold on to power, the fact that they are sending "war veterans" who have spent less time on this Earth than I have in pubs to dragoon the party's very own political/tribal base into submission does indeed remove any such said doubt. One wonders just what the final ZANU-PF indignity will be that may cause the country's collective twig to snap...and the results of that would not be a pretty sight.

Ron Humphrey
06-19-2008, 05:15 PM
If there was any doubt about ZANU-PF's determination, indeed desperation, to hold on to power, the fact that they are sending "war veterans" who have spent less time on this Earth than I have in pubs to dragoon the party's very own political/tribal base into submission does indeed remove any such said doubt. One wonders just what the final ZANU-PF indignity will be that may cause the country's collective twig to snap...and the results of that would not be a pretty sight.

Thats a lot closer than we might think. Would almost be willing to bet its one of those lines you cross without knowing it, and I think they may already be there:(

davidbfpo
06-19-2008, 09:35 PM
From a Zimbabwean emailing:

Today the Mugabe junta announced the beginning of yet another operation designed to oppress the people of Zimbabwe. Under Operation 'Pull down your satellite dish' the regime is forcing Zimbabweans to pull down their home satellite dishes This latest operation is a concerted effort by the Mugabe regime to close all spaces through which information can be disseminated, with the objective of stealing the election.

Now that is a different tactic and so visible.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
06-19-2008, 09:57 PM
Breaking news from Harare - South Africa has called on Robert Mugabe to cancel next week's presidential election and forge a unity government amid a campaign of violence that today claimed the lives of four more opposition activists.

taken from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2158635/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-urged-to-cancel-vote.html

Another sad story, by a white farmer on what is happening: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2157881/The-horrors-of-being-a-white-farmer-in-Robert-Mugabe%27s-Zimbabwe.html

davidbfpo

Steve Blair
06-20-2008, 03:06 PM
And this adds yet another dimension to how low this can go...
Eyewitness: Raped for opposing Mugabe (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7465101.stm). Yet it seems fairly certain that the strongmen will continue to have each others' backs....

Norfolk
06-21-2008, 12:02 AM
I get the wierd feeling that

Thats a lot closer than we might think. Would almost be willing to bet its one of those lines you cross without knowing it, and I think they may already be there:(

As usual Ron, you're way out ahead of me on these things.:) And if, as you say, that line may have already been crossed without anyone having recognized it at the time, it would indeed help explain the depths to which ZANU-PF will go to hold on to power. Because they probably know better than anyone that as soon as they lose power, they're dog meat, literally.

Ron Humphrey
06-21-2008, 12:42 AM
As usual Ron, you're way out ahead of me on these things.:) And if, as you say, that line may have already been crossed without anyone having recognized it at the time, it would indeed help explain the depths to which ZANU-PF will go to hold on to power. Because they probably know better than anyone that as soon as they lose power, they're dog meat, literally.

I stay busy enough just trying to keep up:D

jcustis
06-23-2008, 01:02 AM
...I really, really do.


HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai said Sunday he would not participate in Friday's presidential runoff, provoking dismay from international observers and handing an apparent victory to President Robert Mugabe.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/22/zimbabwe.main/index.html (http://http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/22/zimbabwe.main/index.html)

Tom Odom
06-24-2008, 05:03 PM
just coming in on CNN that Morgan Tsvangirai has formally withdrawn his name from the race...

a Mugabe and Thugs interim win...

Zimbabwe loses

jcustis
06-24-2008, 08:11 PM
Those fookers!...

davidbfpo
06-25-2008, 06:09 AM
Diplomatic voices raised, Mbeki to change South African policy and the violence continues. Depressing: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2188665/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-isolated-as-allies-turn-their-backs.html

I will declare an interest; I visited Zimbabwe in 1983 and found a fantastic country - albeit with serious problems, including repression in Matabeleland. The signs of trouble to come were there, largely from those in the white community who had stayed on. Now we can see a broken people and country whose government are no better than "robber barons".

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
06-25-2008, 11:57 AM
Diplomatic voices raised, Mbeki to change South African policy and the violence continues. Depressing: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2188665/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-isolated-as-allies-turn-their-backs.html

I will declare an interest; I visited Zimbabwe in 1983 and found a fantastic country - albeit with serious problems, including repression in Matabeleland. The signs of trouble to come were there, largely from those in the white community who had stayed on. Now we can see a broken people and country whose government are no better than "robber barons".

davidbfpo

I followed you in 1984 and toured most of the country while driving 6,000 miles in a month across the region. Matabeleland was off limits to us as official US passport holders. The NK trained forces of evil were already at work. Still it was a beautiful country. Vic Falls was a stunning place and the old colonial hotel with the evening cook out and the bar was an oasis of bliss. The country had the frontier feel versus what you found in South Africa where apartheid still ruled. At the time, if I had the opportunity I would have loved to have spent a few years in Zimbabwe and Botswana.

Tom

Ron Humphrey
06-25-2008, 03:04 PM
Neighbors are finally starting to wake up because they actually care, or is it more likely the've started to realize what type of problems the almost guaranteed insurgency in the future will cause within their own areas?

Tom Odom
06-25-2008, 03:19 PM
Neighbors are finally starting to wake up because they actually care, or is it more likely the've started to realize what type of problems the almost guaranteed insurgency in the future will cause within their own areas?

I would say that it is a combination of the two. Botswana and Zambia have been the most outspoken critics of the regime; they also stand to suffer should a real war start uo. South Africa and the ANC just can't seem to get past the African convention of standing against "foreign involvement" when there has been none worthy of the name. Interesting that Machel --now married to Mandela--has been a voice against Mugabe.

David, what do you think?

Tom

davidbfpo
06-25-2008, 05:05 PM
Taken from a Zimbabwean email group I get:

News Monday 23: Mugs thugs are still rounding up people on their death list in Sunningdale, but army are restraining the chief thug in Mbare. The second sounds as if, after yesterday's violence, the Joint Operations Command may have decided that there has been enough disorder for them save face by stepping in to 'restore order'. The police still have a number of people who try to be professional and tha army are not the worst, so if they want to look good, suppressing their own non-uniformed elements, the youth militia and 'war veterans', may seem good enough. If martial law means suppressing all political parties, to be seen as restraining the admitted ZANY violence may look like a help to their image. That party, if it still is a party, has become a liability to the JOC. This unlikely to save their face, but it may seem like it to them and is the only option open to them if they hope to escape the ICC. Tsvangirai's standing down may go against his preference. Even though it was estimated that he had a majority for going on with the election, it was only a narrow one, and going into the election under these conditions would have required near-unanimity. Sunday's violence would have strengthened this argument. His withdrawal puts the ball back in the JOC's court. My guess at this moment is that they may declare martial law before Tsvangirai can announce his plan on Wednesday.

davidbfpo

MattC86
06-25-2008, 06:02 PM
I would say that it is a combination of the two. Botswana and Zambia have been the most outspoken critics of the regime; they also stand to suffer should a real war start uo. South Africa and the ANC just can't seem to get past the African convention of standing against "foreign involvement" when there has been none worthy of the name. Interesting that Machel --now married to Mandela--has been a voice against Mugabe.



There was an excellent profile in the Chicago Tribune of our native son Ambassador McGee a week ago, and one of the points repeatedly made by some interviewees from NGOs and the like was that "McGee [along with the US and UK diplomatic staffs] is doing what the African representatives need to be doing."

I wonder if pressure exerted by his fellow African leaders would have had more impact on Mugabe. Then again, once people start throwing "colonialism" around, African support for Western initiatives suddenly becomes scarce.

What is really painful about Mbeki's feet-dragging on this whole episode is that Mugabe's Zimbabwe is exactly what Mbeki's "African Renaissance" is supposed to be all about:

Mobilization against kleptocratic, undemocratic "elected" regimes? Check.
Rejection of an African legacy of poor governance and violation of human rights? Check.
Program of legitimate African economic regeneration? Check.

That Mbeki allowed himself to be intimidated by that "colonialism" bugaboo that Mugabe threw out to defend himself is really unfortunate. He had a chance to help "reclaim" Africa, as his writings have said, and he didn't do it.

Regards,

Matt

davidbfpo
06-25-2008, 06:05 PM
Interesting that Machel --now married to Mandela--has been a voice against Mugabe. David, what do you think? Tom

Tom,

I too have been puzzled at Nelson Mandela's silence and this weekend there was a comment on this within an article preceeding his visit to London, to mark his 90th birthday (Will try to locate article). The author emphasised Mandela had criticised Mugabe a few years ago, now Mbeki is the president he has the burden and he is a retired man.

I thought the article's comment weird. If Mandela felt strongly on a subject would he really remain silent? That is why I suspect Graca Machel, his wife, has been so public - it is a diplomatic fix.

The London based Zimbabwe Vigil is calling for protests at two venues in London, where Mandela is dining out and meeting VIPs. Assisting is Peter Tatchell, who tried a "citizens arrest" on Mugabe awhile ago when he visited Europe (Paris I recall).

Yes, if Mandela publically condemned Mugabe and ZANU-PF it would have an impact, within Zimbabwe, South African and beyond. Alas the "robber barons" in Zimbabwe show no sign of wobbling and losing power.

On my Zimbabwean emailing is a call for a boycott of the election issued by South Africa's trade unions (CSATU), Democratic Alliance (opposition party) and the communist party (SACP). Alongside a call upon Mbeki to do something more than talk.

I am not convinced the opposition in Zimbabwe will become an insurgency and so destabilise the region. More likely and all ready evident is the economic collapse and starvation.

davidbfpo

Stan
06-25-2008, 06:12 PM
Reading some of the recent press (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7474079.stm) to include AMB McGee's Teleconference (http://www.state.gov/p/af/rls/spbr/2008/106225.htm) makes me conclude our system is stymied to the tune of 3 decades.


Britain is also to withdraw President Robert Mugabe's honorary knighthood.

Mr Mugabe is the first foreigner to be stripped of the award since Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989, the day before his execution.


AMBASSADOR MCGEE: Thank you, Tom. We’re pleased to be here today. The situation in Zimbabwe still remains fairly critical. The violence and the intimidation continue in both the urban and the rural areas. I think most people would probably be interested, though, in hearing the latest update that we have on Morgan Tsvangirai himself.

I just got off the phone with my colleague, the Dutch Ambassador, who told me that Morgan is still at his embassy. The Ambassador had met with the Permanent Secretary from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs here, who gave assurances that the Government of Zimbabwe would not try to raid the Dutch Embassy and that there was no threat to Morgan Tsvangirai’s person.

As a matter of fact, the Permanent Secretary said that Morgan Tsvangirai could leave the country if he so desired.

I think the Permanent Secretary forgot that the government confiscated Morgan’s passport when he returned from South Africa and has not returned it. So, Morgan is going to have a very difficult time trying to leave the country.

Tom Odom
06-25-2008, 06:31 PM
Ambassador McGee has done an admirable job in highlighting te situation and challenging the Mugabists (new word, I rather like it:D) as well as leading by example. But I don't quite get the almost cheerful air he has in describing the fact that the Dutch Embassy is still shelteringTsvangirai without fearing a government raid.

Not to wish harm on our Dutch brethren or Tsvangirai himself, I almost wish such a raid would take place. It should also be highlighted that Tsvangirai did not seek shelter with an African diplomatic mission. That would have been something to have the South African Embassy raided...:wry:

Stan, again, you are right. Lot's of clucking noises and not much else.

David, agree that an insurgency is unlikely after a Mugabist victory that seems imminent. Perhaps had the opposition stayed the course and won, the Mugabist would have kept their promises....

None of this however doing anything to help the country's dying (or dead)economy...

Tom

Ron Humphrey
06-25-2008, 07:02 PM
I didn't mean to imply full up out and out war but more along the lines of quiet revolution, with possibly much larger implications.

Do we expect that those who have been willing to stand up and have been punished or had family, friends, etc punished to simply lay down and forget about it.

Rather I would agree on the starvation and as far as it seems the economy is already shot no recovery whatsoever.

With this where does one suppose any who choose to work towards change will base themselves as it would seem implausible that it be done effectively in country. Thus my original premise.

Somehow I don't see these "Mis-led youth" who have been keeping so busy recently are going to find themselves without reprocuss one things "settle" down. That would in turn lead towards the rest.

Just my concerns. I will choose to quote JCUSTIS here
I cry for that country.

davidbfpo
06-25-2008, 09:08 PM
The BBC News are reporting Nelson Mandela has tonight made a comment, at a formal dinner, on Zimbabwe, albeit very short alongside criticism of the violence in South Africa. BCC headline is: Nelson Mandela criticises 'tragic failure of leadership' in Zimbabwe (no link yet even after 30mins).

Hardly a rousing call for an end to the "robber barons".

davidbfpo

Norfolk
06-25-2008, 10:13 PM
The Government of South Africa's strangely odd, even indulgent behaviour towards the Government of Zimbabwe over the years is unsettling. Not only has it refrained from strong criticism, or often any criticism, at all, but has almost consistently gone out of its way to defend ZANU-PF and even to practically shift the blame for Zimbabwe's ills upon the outside world. Not to mention that there was that SA Government team sent a couple years ago to Zimbabwe to study the land-redistribution/farm-seizure process.

South Africa's own internal situation is poor, and deteriorating, and it might not take as much as one might prefer to think for SA to go the way of Zimbabwe, more or less. A rabble-rouser coming to power could expedite the process rather efficiently. The present SA Government is probably aware of this possible eventuality, and doubtless not very keen to go that way. But it seems so repulsed by the notion of breaking African unity and thus be "siding" with former Colonial powers and the like, that it prefers obstinant contrariness to dealing with reality - both within Zimbabwe, and increasingly within SA itself. Ten or twenty years from now, Zimbabwe may amount to another largely forgotten prequel to a "main event " within South Africa itself.

jcustis
06-26-2008, 12:06 AM
South Africa's quirky relationship has been, well, quirky even as far back as the Chimurenga, and both white governments had a love/hate relationship over several issues.

It's interesting to see that although the governments have changed, the arm's-reach sentiment remains to some degree. Perhaps a political scientist or historian could have foreseen this relationship.

It would be neat to have JRT Wood drop by and give us his analysis.

Rhodesian
06-26-2008, 06:33 AM
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/

MASVINGO - A senior officer serving with the Zimbabwe National Army Major General Engelbert Rugeje yesterday said soldiers will be out in full force
on Friday to herd voters to the polling stations countrywide and to ensure
that they vote for the single candidate, President Robert Mugabe.

Addressing people who were force-marched to Mucheke Stadium by members of the army and Zanu-PF militia Rugeje said soldiers will sweep through the
countryside on Friday to ensure that people go to the polling stations "to
vote for Mugabe. The army will also supply election observers.

"We are soldiers," Rugeje said. "We do not ask for things; we force things.

"On Friday we are going to make sure that you go and vote, not for any
person of your choice, but for President Mugabe. I am not asking you to do
so but we will force you to go and vote.
"As soldiers we enjoy war."

During the Rhodesian war it was normal for the "Freedom Fighters" to herd villagers to "Pungwes" - political gatherings enforcing pro ZanuPf chanting, shoot the chiefs son or daughter to make a point, demand the services of the village womenr (age not a problem) and of course insist on free beer. At election time 1980 they said plainly if they did not win, the war continues. Nothing ever seems to change, deliberate starvation, rape and murder are all these thugs know.

I.R

davidbfpo
06-27-2008, 10:15 PM
From a Zimbabwean emailing, two articles by Mary Ndlovu, a human rights activist, both are too long to bring here, so try the links:

http://www.pambazuka.org/en/ current scene and http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/43971 Oct '07

davidbfpo

Rhodesian
06-28-2008, 08:45 AM
http://zimbabwemetro.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/mbekimugabepapers.pdf

Makes facinating reading, if genuine.

I.R

davidbfpo
06-28-2008, 09:10 AM
A fascinating, if long read. An odd mixture of Marxist and Third World ideology with some harsh realism about politics, economics etc. Clearly ZANU-PF did not accept the advice and became a regime of robbery, not revolution. Perhaps Jacob Xuma and the SACP can comment?

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
06-28-2008, 09:34 AM
Quite telling passage:

But even in Mbare, some voters defied Zanu-PF's intimidation. At Nharira primary school, in a more affluent part of the suburb, turnout was low as voters stayed away, Bernard Mashonganyika, 47, voted MDC, as he has done in every election since they were formed. A real war veteran, unlike the so-called ones who make up Mr Mugabe's shock troops, he said he was shot in the leg during the struggle for independence. "You know what?" he said. "These thieves, when we went to war they were not there. We only knew about Mugabe in 1978. But right now he is behaving as if he was the one holding the AK [47 assault rifle]."

From: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2210710/Voting-and-violence-in-the-toughest-neighbourhood-of-Robert-Mugabe%27s-Zimbabwe.html

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
06-28-2008, 09:42 AM
From: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2202196/Zimbabwe-Vote-for-Robert-Mugabe-and-save-your-life%2C-MDC-says.html

Mr Biti (MDC Deputy Leader) was detained for 14 days and charged with treason. He endured 14 hours of interrogation, by police officers and the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO). These sessions revealed deep divsions within the regime.

Mr Biti's interrogators wanted to know about his talks in South Africa with two members of Mr Mugabe's cabinet: Patrick Chinamasa, the justice minister, and Nicholas Goche, the labour minister.

"It was obvious they were being used by one faction of Zanu-PF. One part is negotiating, the other doesn't know what is happening," said Mr Biti. "It was quite clear from some of the questions that they asked about particular aspects of the SADC [Southern African Development Community] negotiations that they felt Chinamasa and Goche had been outplayed at the SADC table."

Mmmm and the effect of this was? Nothing yet.

davidbfpo

marct
06-28-2008, 03:57 PM
Mmmm and the effect of this was? Nothing yet.

For the nonce. However, there was an interesting quote in a CBC article (http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/06/27/zimbabwe-election.html) yesterday.

A meeting of African foreign ministers in Egypt is considering what steps the continent's nations can take to press for change in Zimbabwe.

"I don't think we are going to accept the result but we are still discussing," a minister told Reuters, asking not to be identified.


Marc

davidbfpo
06-28-2008, 08:02 PM
From the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7479320.stm

Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula has said sanctions against Zimbabwe are unlikely to work, and that Mr Mugabe and the opposition should instead be encouraged to talk. He was speaking at a meeting of African Union foreign ministers in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheik, before a full meeting of heads of state on Monday which Mr Mugabe is expected to attend. Mr Wetangula, whose own country recently went through a period of political violence before a power-sharing deal was brokered, told reporters: "History has shown us that they (sanctions) don't work because the leadership just dig in and dig in and feel persecuted. "I think we need to engage Zimbabwe. The route of sanctions may not be the helpful one... the first and most important thing is for the people of Zimbabwe and their leadership to sit down and talk to each other, instead of talking at each other."

Sometime ago I suggested the only people who will effect change are the people of Zimbabwe, or some of Mugabe's followers decide time to change. Nothing I have seen, which is all diplomatic froth, indicates different.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
07-02-2008, 10:26 PM
From a Zimbabwean emailing:

Munich, July 1, 2008 - The Management Board of Giesecke & Devrient GmbH, Munich, today decided to cease delivering banknote paper to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe with immediate effect. The company has taken this step in response to an official request from the German government and calls for international sanctions by the European Union and United Nations. "Our decision is a reaction to the political tension in Zimbabwe, which is mounting significantly rather than easing as expected, and takes account of the critical evaluation by the international community, German government and general public," explains Dr. Karsten Ottenberg, Chairman of the Management Board and CEO of Giesecke & Devrient GmbH. In delivering banknotes and banknote paper, Giesecke & Devrient is subject to strict rules defined by the World Bank. The company continues to rely on the political and moral assessment provided by international trade regulators.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
07-02-2008, 10:28 PM
The amount of produce Tesco sources from Zimbabwe - worth around £1 million per year - is insignificant in terms of global trade and influence. However, in the current circumstances, we have decided to stop sourcing any products from Zimbabwe as long as the political crisis persists in that country.

More on link: http://www.tescocorporate.com/page.aspx?pointerid=198F3A56B33141F784F5855DA51575 CD

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
07-02-2008, 10:32 PM
A respected academic commentator, Stephen Chan, has written a long article on recent events; full article on: http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10268

davidbfpo

Rhodesian
07-04-2008, 09:43 PM
Rhodesia`s unfinished business, Zimbabwe`s real problem. I.R.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1031975/The-dirty-half-dozen-The-generals-ruthless-blood-thirsty-Mugabe.html

Stan
07-28-2008, 07:35 PM
a tin of baked beans cost... at least for the next few hours - a mere 256 billion Zimbabwe dollars (worth about one USD) :eek:

an unofficial inflation rate soaring past 15m% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7528974.stm)


The salary I was paid at the start of this month cannot even pay for my bus fare here this morning. I am struggling."

In bars, the price of beer goes up between rounds. :mad:


Angry soldiers

But worryingly for President Robert Mugabe, the police and armed forces are not immune to the economic chaos.

davidbfpo
07-29-2008, 09:21 PM
I shall refrain from commenting on the mediation process and the reaction of critics inside Zimbabwe. Instead here are the reported views of Botswana, one of Zimbabwe's neighbours that can claim rightly to be a democracy, from an email circulated on a Zimbabwe listing I get:

Botswana´s vice president, Mompati S. Merafhe, sitting just two seats from Mr. Mugabe, said the Zimbabwean leader should be suspended from the African Union, Mr. Skelemani said. Botswana seems to have been greatly affected by its ringside view of the Zimbabwe crisis. The accounts its election observers brought back from Zimbabwe deepened Botswana´s official revulsion. Ruth Seretse, the deputy director of Botswana´s directorate on corruption and economic crime, led the 50-person observer team. She said in an interview that she had seen ZANU-PF youth militia members beating people at a rally for Mr. Tsvangirai in Harare."People ran for their lives," she said. "The riot police just stood there." Some of the most disturbing reports came from Bakwena Oitsile, a retired major general in Botswana´s army. He said in an interview that in one village in Zimbabwe´s Mashonaland West Province, he had found 14 houses, as well as grain stores, burned and reduced to ashes. Pregnant women and children there had nothing left but the clothes on their backs. In another village in the province, he arrived just hours after an attack on June 17. In one hut, he discovered the body of a man just beaten to death and his wife, still alive, with a deep cut on her head. Another woman´s index finger had been cut off. Her hand was still raw and untreated."She was in great pain when we were there," he said. "She was screaming." He said of what he witnessed in Zimbabwe: "I will never forget it. It´s all in my heart and head."

Yes, grim reading.

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
08-01-2008, 01:24 PM
The very day I stepped off the plane onto the NDjili tarmac to meet Stan for the first time, Mobutu did the very same thing with the New Zaire set at 4NZ to the US Dollar, replacing the the old Zaire which used a 10 Million Z note.




Mugabe's no Einstein (http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/aug/01/mugabes-no-einstein/)
Friday, August 1, 2008

President Robert Mugabe's portrait is displayed behind Zimbabwe's hyper-inflated currency. The central bank is issuing new notes with 10 zeros removed from them, effective Friday. Mr. Mugabe warned "entrepreneurs" against attempts at profiteering. (Getty Images)

With talks in South Africa set to resume this weekend on Zimbabwe's impasse, strongman Robert Mugabe has suddenly rediscovered his nation's disastrous economy. Not that Mr. Mugabe has applied the right lessons. On Wednesday, the regime rolled out an old classic in government economic illiteracy — a new zim dollar that simply knocks 10 digits off the old currency's denomination. So, a loaf of bread that previously cost Z$50 billion now costs either $50 billion of the old zim dollars, or $5 in new ones.

Schmedlap
08-01-2008, 04:43 PM
The central bank is issuing new notes with 10 zeros removed from them, effective Friday.

Something similar happened to the value of my portfolio, except it was fewer zeros.

Stan
08-02-2008, 06:04 PM
The very day I stepped off the plane onto the NDjili tarmac to meet Stan for the first time, Mobutu did the very same thing with the New Zaire set at 4NZ to the US Dollar, replacing the the old Zaire which used a 10 Million Z note.

Begs the question. What has kept Zimbabwe's legendary 5th Brigade (or any other unit for that matter) from going full tilt as did Zaire's 31st Para (assuming the North Korea-trained 5th still exists) ?

Where did Mugabe fix Mobutu's fatal error in keeping a county in "strangle hold"? Maybe the DRC was a lesson learned for Zimbabwe's government following their assistance against Ugandan and Rwandan rebel forces in the DRC.

Tom Odom
08-02-2008, 09:14 PM
Begs the question. What has kept Zimbabwe's legendary 5th Brigade (or any other unit for that matter) from going full tilt as did Zaire's 31st Para (assuming the North Korea-trained 5th still exists) ?

Where did Mugabe fix Mobutu's fatal error in keeping a county in "strangle hold"? Maybe the DRC was a lesson learned for Zimbabwe's government following their assistance against Ugandan and Rwandan rebel forces in the DRC.

Stan,

The difference is that the Zairian/Congo Mobutu crowd never fought to get into power. When they got in trouble, we bailed 'em out.

Mugabe's thugocracy did fight a war to get where they are. The veterans are not all veterans but veteran still means something.

Best

Tom

Tom Odom
08-13-2008, 03:44 PM
This is so Mobutu it is uncanny. Did he have a long lost twin brother named Robert Mugabe?


Robert Mugabe 'strikes deal to exclude Morgan Tsvangirai' (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4518743.ece)

Robert Mugabe last night appeared to have ensured his political survival by splitting the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

A senior member of Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF) party said that the 84-year-old dictator had agreed to set up a coalition government with Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a breakaway faction of the MDC with ten seats in Parliament.

Norfolk
08-13-2008, 09:59 PM
This is so Mobutu it is uncanny. Did he have a long lost twin brother named Robert Mugabe?

Like bad horror-flick villains, these guys never really die, they just keep coming back for the umpteenth sequel. Or so it might seem.:wry:

Ron Humphrey
08-13-2008, 10:25 PM
When and/or if it's ever going to occur to Mugabe's groupies that while he's busy thumbing his nose at what he perceives as undue and "ill advised" interference is his countries affairs; that he's thumbing his nose at the populous of the country at the same time. They won't likely forget it and even though he's a tough old bugger he ain't gon be round forever.

Norfolk
08-14-2008, 12:20 AM
Maybe some of these guys figure once the time comes they'll just pull a reverse Mobutu, with the whole cloud and light thing going, except going up instead of down.:confused:

Stan
08-14-2008, 10:26 AM
This is so Mobutu it is uncanny. Did he have a long lost twin brother named Robert Mugabe?

Tom, I think Robert had years of watching Uncle Mo doin' the dance :eek:
Let's face it, Mo was nearly famous for his adept political maneuvers. I recall the way in which he literally invited the head of an opposition group (Etienne Tshisekedi) to form a new government.

Hell, it actually worked til some bonehead tried to replace the Bank of Zaire President :D

davidbfpo
08-27-2008, 08:58 PM
The State Opening of Parliament in Harare took a different form on Tuesday, alas without any film footage, but the BCC News carries this report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7583128.stm

Since then President Mugabe has declared a government can be formed without the MDC, so no real change there.

We can only hope the jeering had an effect.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
09-04-2008, 08:18 PM
The UK daily Telegraph reports President Mugabe has issued an ultimatium to the opposition MDC: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2683532/Robert-Mugabe-issues-opposition-with-deadline-in-Zimbabwe.html

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
09-05-2008, 12:38 PM
The UK daily Telegraph reports President Mugabe has issued an ultimatium to the opposition MDC: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2683532/Robert-Mugabe-issues-opposition-with-deadline-in-Zimbabwe.html

davidbfpo

Same announcement covered here.



September 4, 2008
Robert Mugabe gives Morgan Tsvangarai power-sharing ultimatum (httphttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4676340.ece://)

President Mugabe has delivered an ultimatum to his rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, to sign up for a power-sharing agreement with his ruling Zanu (PF) party or face being frozen out of the new Cabinet to be announced tomorrow.

“If after tomorrow [Thursday], Tsvangirai does not want to sign, we will certainly put together a Cabinet,” Mr Mugabe told the state-controlled Herald newspaper.

The move would violate the founding conditions of the talks and signal Mr Mugabe's repudiation of the process doggedly pursued by South Africa’s President Mbeki for 18 months.

see also:


Comment: Boo and hiss as much as you like, Robert Mugabe’s still in power (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4615147.ece)

Jonathan Clayton
Zimbabwe sailed into uncharted waters this week with only one thing certain: President Mugabe’s hand is still firmly on the rudder.

Although his ruling Zanu (PF) party lost the position of Speaker of Parliament on Monday for the first time since independence in 1980, talk of it being the endgame for the octogenarian’s brutal rule is premature.

“We are back at square one, and Mugabe is on top,” Professor Sipho Seepe, a political analyst in neighbouring South Africa, said. “Mugabe has outwitted the Opposition and the entire international community and there is no reason to believe any concessions are on the way.

All of this makes me repeat what I said on this same thread on March 19 2008 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=42583&postcount=18):

Cynic that I am, I don't think Mugabe will leave so quietly...

Tom

Tom Odom
09-17-2008, 04:30 PM
I am in a time warp. It is October 1993 and just finishing 2 weeks vacation in Haiti (yes I am indeed warped in ways beyond time) I step off a plane to meet Stan and Dean Schultz in K-town. They great me with the news that the old Zaire which had inflated to a 10 Million note worth pennies on the street had been replaced with the New Zaire set at 4NZ to the dollar.

Now it has migrated: 10 Trillion for 1,000 will still only get you a loaf of bread



Zimbabwe replaces $10 trillion banknote (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/09/17/zimbabwe.currency/index.html)

ARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has introduced a $1,000 note -- $10 trillion in the old value -- as the country battles to end cash shortages in the hyper-inflationary environment.

Zimbabwe's currency is trading around Z$350 -- $35 trillion in the old value -- against U.S. dollar.

However, analysts said the new note -- which can only buy a loaf of bread -- will not ease pressure on cash shortages because of the ever-increasing prices.

"It will not make even a small impact. What we need in Zimbabwe is a clear change of policies, start production and then inflation will start easing up," said John Robertson, an economic consultant. "The zeros seem to be coming back no matter how often they slash them."

jcustis
09-21-2008, 09:54 AM
I only caught a brief mention of it on CNN International with the sound turned down, but did Mugabe agree to a coalition government recently? And did the opposition accept the terms?

I cannot find much due to the internet filters here that run during the day. What sort of commentary is out there concerning the situation on the ground?

More importantly, what does the prospect of a coalition government really mean in terms of economic recovery? What Mugabe policies (which contributed to the decline) are subject to review and reversal, if any?

On a side note, can anyone (I imagine Jedburgh will swoop in to the rescue with a reference) post a study or such that highlights just what Mugabe-centric policies influenced the current economic problems?

Rhodesian
09-22-2008, 06:14 PM
Sir

Yes there has been an agreement on power sharing, however at the present time said agreement appears to be wobbling over who gets what Cabinet position. Mugabe retains his position as Head of the Army, while Tsvangirai gets power over the Police. The CIO (secret police) will apparently be disbanded (transfered to Military Intelligence is more likely). My friends "in-country" tell me that many of those living there are very supportive of all this, however they also say that this support is being driven by complete desperation. Basically things are now so bad, that any relief is welcome.

Most professional commentators and many members of the press, are a lot less enthuisiastic about this state of affairs. There is complete cynicism that Mugabe will ever place himself in any position that leaves him open to charges for genocide etc etc, so real power will always remain his (and to hell with the consequences and everyone who dislikes him etc and forget agreements!) Some are hopeful nevertheless that some good will still come of this, even though when the details are looked at it seems to me and many others that the MDC may have actually just shot itself in the head. We cant find anything tangible that shows ZanuPF have genuinely given up anything.

We have been here before, when Bob forced Joshua Nkomo into talks, we just saw the destruction of the opposition as a result etc. There will be no genuine "deals" while a Mafia remains in control. Even if Mugabe goes, those who have made themselves fabulously and corruptly rich over the last few decades and who were involved in the massacres of the eighties (and 2000, and 2002, and . . . ) will just find themselves another Godfather.

There is also a great deal of pessimism amoungst the Zim diaspora too, and theres no rush to go back home.

A pity really, Mbeki got what he wanted by leaving Mugs in control, the country wallows in despair, and the economy etc continues to decline.

I.R

Rhodesian
09-22-2008, 06:17 PM
PS Gee I really hope I got this wrong!!! They (we) deserve something better than a terrorist for a president. I.R

davidbfpo
09-22-2008, 08:57 PM
Some comments via a Zimbabwean emailing which I've not read yet:

*What's new on Kubatana Blogs?*Zimbabweans speak out about The Deal- Marko Phiri calls it not so happy a day <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=788>-

Bev Clark reckons this isn't any kind of victory <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=785>-

Susan Pietrzyk is optimistic Zimbabwe can resolve its identity crisis <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=786>-

Amanda Atwood thinks it's an anticlimax <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=789>-

Dennis Nyandoro is proud to be a Zimbabwean <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=787>-

Brenda Burrell contemplates change <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=790>-

Natasha Msonza shares Zimbabweans' text messages <http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=791> about the deal

Wrong question, wrong answer! - Fay ChungRead more <http://www.kubatana.net/html/archive/opin/080908fc.asp?sector=OPIN>

Rhodesian
10-02-2008, 06:37 AM
Sirs

The comments in the article found at the following link pretty much sum up the present state of affairs.

http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=5097

I.R

davidbfpo
10-11-2008, 07:54 PM
Check this BBC News accoubt: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/3178749/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-hands-key-ministries-to-his-Zanu-PF-party.html

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
10-13-2008, 09:19 AM
I have been expecting this to happen but the degree is a bit more than I had guessed was coming. Mugabe is old and will not be around that mush longer but he has institutionalized thuggery as a preferred practice. They the ZANU-PF elites will not go when Mugabe does and I wonder if armed rebellion is the only road ahead; certainly the economy will get no better. Mbeki has proved a man with feet of clay. Who will step up?

Tom


Robert Mugabe grabs key Zimbabwe Cabinet posts (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-zimbabwe12-2008oct12,0,4445107.story)
The surprise move, in defiance of a power-sharing deal, ensures Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party will retain their iron grip on the troubled country.
By Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
October 12, 2008
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has defied a fragile power-sharing deal with the opposition, giving all key Cabinet posts, including the crucial security ministries, to his own party.

The power grab took Zimbabwe by surprise Saturday, less than a month after the deal was signed. Opposition spokesman Nelson Chamisa, whose Movement for Democratic Change has said ruling party control of the police would be a deal-breaker, called it "a giant act of madness which puts the whole deal into jeopardy."

Stan
10-13-2008, 11:28 AM
I have been expecting this to happen but the degree is a bit more than I had guessed was coming. Mugabe is old and will not be around that mush longer but he has institutionalized thuggery as a preferred practice. They the ZANU-PF elites will not go when Mugabe does and I wonder if armed rebellion is the only road ahead; certainly the economy will get no better. Mbeki has proved a man with feet of clay. Who will step up?

Tom

Would have to agree with you, even with (retired) Mbeki's return (http://allafrica.com/stories/200810130473.html) to broker yet another deal, Tsvangirai's persistent threats of stepping down with each speed bump he encounters leaves me wondering what he would even accomplish as PM.

I think we're well past the overinflated Zaire banknote... "On Thursday, it was announced that Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate had soared to 231,000,000%" Well, they could always knock a few more zeros off (again) :confused:

Tom Odom
12-02-2008, 02:34 PM
Brilliant! Stan and I should have thought of the "stop shaking hands" bit in Goma '94. Of course, the could use their Zim dollars to buy bottled water.

Turning off the water because chemicals are unavailable guarantees that the population will use contaminated water.

Tom

Mob runs riot as Zimbabwe runs out of water (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5269909.ece)

Water supplies to residents in Harare were cut by the authorities yesterday as Zimbabwe’s cholera epidemic tightened its grip and the city witnessed its worst unrest for a decade.

The Zimbabwe National Water Authority turned off the pumps in the capital after it ran out of purifying chemicals. With cholera cases soaring above 11,000 across the country, and an anthrax outbreak ravaging the the countryside, David Parirenyatwa, the Health Minister, urged Zimbabweans to stop shaking hands to avoid spreading disease.

Tom Odom
12-08-2008, 01:58 PM
Dave and Bill as usual have rounded up the best Zimbabwe articles for the past several days. The cholera outbreak may be the final straw toward pushing South Africa into action.

Mugabe's regime use of the outbreak to again trot out the Western colonialist conspiracy is nothing less than mass murder through deliberate neglect.


Rescue Zimbabwe (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/06/AR2008120601855.html)
Tens of thousands will starve or die of cholera unless the outside world ends the madness of Robert Mugabe.

Sunday, December 7, 2008; Page B06

ZIMBABWE'S TRAGIC implosion is gaining momentum. On Thursday the government announced a national health emergency because of a rapidly spreading cholera epidemic, which so far has killed at least 500 people and infected more than 12,000. The water and sewage system of Harare, the capital, has broken down; hospitals have virtually ceased to function. The United Nations and aid groups say that hundreds of thousands of people are at immediate risk. That comes on top of the 5 million -- more than half of Zimbabwe's remaining population -- who will need international food aid by next month to avoid starvation, according to the United Nations. Zimbabwe's economy has seized up: only one in 10 people now works, most schools are closed and prices double every 24 hours. In short, a country that once was a relatively prosperous food exporter will soon be the site of a major humanitarian catastrophe unless there is international intervention.

Meanwhile Kenya's calll for the AU to send troops is noteworthy in that it accepts that AU troops may not be available and acccomodates UN forces in advance.




Zimbabwe Says West Exploiting Cholera to Undermine Mugabe (http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-12-07-voa13.cfm)
By VOA News
07 December 2008
Kenya's prime minister has called for foreign troops to enter Zimbabwe to help end that country's deepening humanitarian crisis.

Kenyan PM Raila Odinga, speaks to the media in Nairobi, 07 Dec 2008
Speaking in Nairobi Sunday, Raila Odinga said the African Union must immediately authorize sending troops into Zimbabwe.

Another call for action--one that uses the "G" word, genocide


Remove Robert Mugabe from Zimbabwe to save African lives (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/12/08/dl0801.xml)
Last Updated: 10:01pm GMT 07/12/2008

As a cholera epidemic starts to engulf Zimbabwe and threatens to spread to the whole region, the world must now seek an urgent end to Robert Mugabe's murderous and illegitimate reign. The future bill for sorting out a southern African epidemic will inevitably end up, in part, being paid by Britain. It would be advantageous, both financially and morally, to finance action now and prevent a mass outbreak, rather than wait until millions of Africans are needlessly sent to their graves.

davidbfpo
12-08-2008, 10:31 PM
Taken from a slightly longer report on a debate at the Royal African Society (London) on 4th DEc '08, via Deutsche Welle to a Zimbabwe newsletter; remarks attributed to a South African academic observer:

Asked if South Africa could do more to end the chaotic regime of Robert Mugabe, Professor Habib this to say: "The problem is: how do you get rid of a thug with guns? That's the dilemma. He's a thug with guns. We confronted this with Abacha and we confront this with Mugabe. We have three options. We invade, which South Africans don't buy. I don't buy, I must say. We've seen what happened in Iraq and frankly, I think they'd give us a hiding. That's our first problem. Second, sanctions. Well, sanctions take fifteen years to work. Sanctions might please the Foreign Office and the electorate in London. The third option is negotiations. But how do you get leverage against a bleddy dictator? That's the dilemma. That's what we should be talking about. Up until now everyone has been criticising Mbeki and I think he should be criticized. He didn't have to hug Mugabe. He didn't have to stay silent when the elections results came out. But the question that no-one has put on the table is -How do you get rid of a thug with guns?"

Asked if he agreed that South Africa would get a hiding from the Zimbabweans, Moeletsi Mibeki said: "I don't really think that South Africa would be in for a hiding in an armed conflict with Zimbabwe. Yes, the South African Army is very weak. The average age of a private in the South African Army is 35 years old. In the US Army, the average is 22 years old. So you see already that the South African Army is not in very good shape. There are lots of weaknesses in terms of equipment. Its got old equipment which goes back to the 1970s which was developed for the war in Angola. So there are a number of weaknesses. However, the Zimbabwean Army., like all modern armies, runs on armoured vehicles and all the oil that goes into Zimbabwe comes through South Africa, either through South Africa or from South African sources like SASOL. The reality is that if South Africa wanted a conflict with Zimbabwe, it would force the Zimbabweans military out of their military vehicles just by cutting off the diesel."

Unable to find a link to the talk.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
12-11-2008, 07:53 PM
The link: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=61804 is to a long review article on how Zimbabwe came to where it was. A very different point of view and so may cause some interest here.

davidbfpo

reed11b
12-11-2008, 11:48 PM
The link: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=61804 is to a long review article on how Zimbabwe came to where it was. A very different point of view and so may cause some interest here.

davidbfpo
No article..bad link
Reed

davidbfpo
12-14-2008, 12:08 PM
Apologies for the IT failure. This is the link to the article: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n23/mamd01_.html and this is a link to some of the initial responses: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n24/letters.html#letter1

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
12-16-2008, 07:51 PM
Just found: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20081216%5cACQDJON20081216051 4DOWJONESDJONLINE000191.htm&&mypage=newsheadlines&title=Zimbabwe%20Warns%20Of%20Terrorism%20Plot%20A fter%20Air%20Force%20Chief%20Shot

Yes, Zimbabwe is under attack by terrorists?

davidbfpo

Jedburgh
12-17-2008, 02:47 PM
ICG, 16 Dec 08: Ending Zimbabwe's Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward? (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/southern_africa/b56_ending_zimbabwes_nightmare___a_possible_way_fo rward.pdf)

......Zimbabwe’s long national nightmare must end, and its only legitimately elected body – the parliament – must take the lead. The rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, including a transnational cholera epidemic threat and the hunger and starvation of half the country’s population, has intensified discussion of the responsibility to protect the population from its government. The AU and SADC must say enough is enough, appoint a new mediator and encourage a new negotiated outcome, which would involve Robert Mugabe’s immediate departure from the presidency and the postponement of Morgan Tsvangirai’s leadership aspirations.

Since implementation of the seriously flawed 15 September agreement seems impossible in light of Mugabe’s unilateral actions and unwillingness to cede any security sector authority, MDC and ZANU-PF negotiators should establish a transitional administration by constitutional amendment. A pragmatic shift in the current approach to negotiations by Zimbabwe’s elected political leaders of the kind described appears to be the only peaceable way to break the long deadlock now destroying the country.

TristanAbbey
02-22-2009, 10:13 PM
http://bellum.stanfordreview.org/?p=325

Mugabe is 85. Rumors of his poor health are littered throughout cyberspace. “Hardliners” need not remove him from power to send Zimbabwe into chaos; he merely has to die. There is no clear successor and the durability of the power-sharing arrangement is extremely suspect. The combination of all of this — an aging autocrat, an unstable government, rampant disease, skyrocketing inflation, and a disgruntled military — should make Zimbabwe’s neighbors rather wary, as they will bear the tides of refugees in the event.

davidbfpo
02-24-2009, 11:24 AM
I have recommended this website before: http://www.sokwanele.com/ which appears to be a Zimbabwean opposition blogsite and the latest article shows massive holes already in the power-sharing agreement.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
02-24-2009, 11:43 AM
A report in The (UK) Daily Telegraph, that more commercial i.e. white owned farms are to be seized: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/4788387/Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabes-secret-plan-against-white-farmers.html

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
02-27-2009, 10:40 AM
Timed to coincide with Mugabe's 85th birthday party a grim report on the cholera epidemic: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/26/zimbabwe-cholera-mugabe The attached short newsreel does not appear to work.

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
03-03-2009, 04:12 PM
Timed to coincide with Mugabe's 85th birthday party a grim report on the cholera epidemic: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/26/zimbabwe-cholera-mugabe The attached short newsreel does not appear to work.

davidbfpo

David,

I am not one who calls for divine intervention but in Mugabe's case as well as all his entourage divine food poisoning would have been divine.

Tom

Tom Odom
06-01-2009, 06:21 AM
This one is a tough read and it really hits at the heart of the white farmer's reality--that regardless of government, Zimbabwe's farmers face expulsion in its harshest terms, at great cost to them and ultimately the country of Zimbabwe. This is a tragedy all around and one only becoming more tragic. Zimbabwe--once a bread basket--has become a wasteland.

Tom


Robert Mugabe's thugs chanted: 'We will eat your children' (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article6389723.ece)
As militants attack his home with burning tyres and drive workers from his land, one of the last white farmers in Zimbabwe feels betrayed by the new Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai

The invaders came at 11pm. Fifteen of them — singing, chanting and crashing metal objects together by our windows. “Out, out,” they shouted as they surrounded our farm — they certainly wanted us out. They broke into the house and dragged burning tyres through the front door. They invaded the hallway and occupied the courtyard. The flames leapt into the thatch as they pulled the tyres under it, but it did not catch alight.

This was last Tuesday. I called the police but then the invaders took the phone away. Their leader, who calls himself “Landmine”, was armed with a rifle. They pushed us around and raised sticks and said that we must leave. They beat my tonga drum so hard that the cowhide skin broke.

davidbfpo
06-01-2009, 09:45 AM
On a Zimbabwe related emailing it appears that the new joint government has failed to restrain the thugs, nor have the joint military ops centres been dissolved - where the "robber barons" sit. There are so few white Zimbabwean farmers left, The thugs also attack non-white farmers when directed.

One link, if you want commentary is: www.sokwanele.com/zigwatch.

Now when will President Zuma say, or do something?

davidbfpo

jmm99
06-02-2009, 03:17 AM
30 years to the day - interesting lead (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1979/jun/01/zimbabwe.fromthearchive).

davidbfpo
06-09-2009, 11:33 AM
Two items on the BBC: MDC minister says assassin lists being prepared: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8090641.stm and the violence still happening: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8077533.stm

I wonder how President Zuma views such developments?

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
06-26-2009, 06:42 PM
No real surprise: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8120931.stm

There has been some reporting in the UK, on Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's visit, which has had a mixed reception - notably being shouted down in Southwark Cathedral by exiles who called upon to return.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
06-27-2009, 09:48 AM
Rarely does one see such writing and respect for a judge in Zimbabwe, alongside some pithy comments on President Mugabe: http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=17991 and http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/obituaries/display.var.2516511.0.Washington_Sansole.php

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
07-29-2009, 11:38 AM
Yes a lull in posting on Zimbabwe, although there has been some news - none good - and more signs that the coalition is is far from being a work in progress.

Riding to the rescue of President Mugabe, no, not the Chinese, but an academic journal: Third World Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2009, pp 1139-1158, with the title Making Sense of Mugabeism in Local and Global Politics: `So Blair, keep your England and let me keep my Zimbabwe´

ABSTRACT
President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has emerged as one of the most controversial political figures since 2000, eliciting both admiration and condemnation. What is termed `Mugabeism´ is a summation of a constellation of political controversies, political behaviour, political ideas, utterances, rhetoric and actions that have crystallised around Mugabe´s political life. It is a contested phenomenon with the nationalist aligned scholars understanding it as a pan-African redemptive ideology opposed to all forms of imperialism and colonialism and dedicated to a radical redistributive project predicated on redress of colonial injustices. A neoliberal-inspired perspective sees Mugabeism as a form of racial chauvinism and authoritarianism marked by antipathy towards norms of liberal governance and disdain for human rights and democracy. This article seeks to analyse Mugabeism as populist phenomenon propelled through articulatory practices and empty signifiers. As such it can be read at many levels: as a form of left-nationalism; as Afro-radicalism and nativism; a patriarchal neo-traditional cultural nationalism and an antithesis of democracy and human rights. All these representations make sense within the context of colonial, nationalist, postcolonial and even precolonial history that Mugabe has deployed to sustain and support his political views.

Phew, you read this far. No wonder Mugabe remains in power.

davidbfpo

Tom Odom
07-29-2009, 12:21 PM
I have a headache now :eek:

3rd World Quarterly is a statement in and of itself...

Stan
07-30-2009, 05:16 AM
Well, Tom, this should clear any misconceptions :eek:


TWQ (http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/01436597.asp) examines all the issues that affect the many Third Worlds and is not averse to publishing provocative and exploratory articles, especially if they have the merit of opening up emerging areas of research that have not been given sufficient attention.

I suspect you're ready for leave :)

Best, Stan

I have a headache now :eek:

3rd World Quarterly is a statement in and of itself...

Tom Odom
07-30-2009, 05:31 AM
I suspect you're ready for leave :)

Best, Stan

48 hours but who is counting?

Moi! :D

Tom

Tom Odom
09-03-2009, 09:20 AM
And so the Mugabe thuggery continues with no end in sight. Campbell and his wife were beaten up last year in an earlier attack.


Activists Mike Campbell and Ben Freeth’s farms ‘set alight by henchmen’ (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article6819284.ece)

President Mugabe’s henchmen were accused yesterday of setting ablaze the homes of their opponents after fires consumed the farmsteads of two prominent white activists.

Mount Carmel Farm, owned by Mike Campbell, who led a campaign against Mr Mugabe’s land seizures, was burnt to the ground yesterday. It had been occupied by a mob claiming to be war veterans since Mr Campbell, 78, and his wife, Angela, 67, were forced out in April by the 80-year-old Nathan Shamuyarira, a member of Mr Mugabe’s politburo. On Sunday the nearby home of Ben Freeth and his wife, Laura, the Campbells’ daughter, also burnt down.

M-A Lagrange
09-03-2009, 10:46 AM
Talking about Bob, what I like with him, it is capacity to basically eat up opposition.
He created ZANU on an ethnic base to liberate his country (at least we have to give him that) and challenge ZAPU. Once he deep put Smith on his knees, he had to face ZAPU. First he won the civil war but to be sure to stay in power, heintegrated ZAPU into ZANU and made it ZANU-PF.
Now MDC is challenging him on the elections once again. Well, last time he managed to stay in powerwhile openingly loosing the elections.
He is (we like it or not) a hero for all politicians in the sub region. I do not know much of them that do not hown him their job. Also he has china behind him with their "win/win cooperation".
(I saw the effect in Harare in 2007. After selling all beef meat to china against weapons,we had to eat chiken for months and we were lucky.)
Next step is a ZANU-PF-MDC one party.

davidbfpo
09-11-2009, 10:22 AM
Via Zimbabwe mailing list: http://www.mugabeandthewhiteafrican.com/index.html

A "fringe" film about a white farmer fighting eviction via a SADC court. Two short clips say enough.

davidbfpo

M-A Lagrange
09-11-2009, 03:41 PM
Well, I cannot say that I like Mugabe. I must say that I did not like much most of the white people I met in Zimbabwe. The black and white fight in that country has been fuelled by both parts.

What Mugabe did to the white farmers is not acceptable, for sure.

But look deeper to what he did to his people in the name of Maoist-Leninist-Communism. One thing that is often forgotten is that all the operations he conducted in the cities to "clean" them, were turned against african migrants. He not only hates the whites, but he hates all what is not Shona.

And he is getting a strong support from SADC in his politics. The fall of Zim is just what his neighbours are economically looking for. It is not suprising that white farmers go in an absurd Kafka-like procedure, even in front of SADC. They were a problem for other countries also. No power in Africa is willing to have them coming back.

Tom Odom
09-12-2009, 01:39 PM
Mugabe still plays the anti-imperialist card as he destroys Zimbabwe. His rhetoric should anger the continent but it won't.

Tom


Mugabe condemns 'bloody whites,' meets with EU delegation (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/09/12/mugabe.zimbabwe.eu/index.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has condemned "bloody whites" for meddling in his country's affairs and attacked the West for trying to impose its rule on the southern African nation.


Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe met with a delegation from the European Union.

Mugabe's comments on Friday came a day before he met a delegation of European Union representatives who are in the country to ease relations and push progress on Zimbabwe's political reforms.

M-A Lagrange
09-12-2009, 02:58 PM
Well actually it is even worst. Kabila just stated that progress had been done for political integration of opposition and asked for the end of the sanctions.
Zuma was supporting it...

Tom Odom
09-24-2009, 08:05 AM
Plucked this off Fox this morning.


The Last Resort (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/09/22/douglas-rogers-resort-book/?test=faces)

A personal memoir of courage and tenacity in Zimbabwe offers lesson for Americans as well.

Editor's Note: How bad do we really have it in America? New York-based writer Douglas Rogers's parents are among the last white farmers left in Zimbabwe, where rampant corruption, political violence, and voodoo Marxist economic policies have brought the country to its knees. And yet Rogers's parents, displaying a fierce pioneering streak reminiscent of frontiers people of the great West, refuse to leave...

...Darling," my mother said, "don't be ridiculous. We are Zimbabweans. This is our land." Then I heard steel in her voice, fury rise in her throat. "Over my dead body will they take this place. Over my dead body."

"


And from CNN


Desperation stalks Zimbabwe's white farmers (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/09/22/zimbabwe.farmers/index.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- A desperate Zimbabwean farmer fighting to hold onto his land -- a year after the country's political rivals pledged to govern jointly -- fears he will eventually lose to politics and violence.

Charles Lock is one of an estimated 400 farmers who have remained in the country despite President Robert Mugabe's policy of redistributing white-owned farms to landless blacks.

"Why do they want to remove me when I've complied with everything they want? What more do they want other than for me to pack my bags and leave and if that's the case, then admit that that is the policy. Pass a law: no whites are allowed to farm. Then it makes it clear," Lock said.


The answer is that the white farmers provide a target to vent anger toward rather than have it blow back in Mugabe's face. Ultimately that will happen tp Mugabe or his crony survivors but the white farmers will most likely be gone.

Tom Odom
09-25-2009, 09:21 AM
And to complete the thought here is Mugabe


Mugabe denies blame for Zimbabwe woes (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/09/24/zimbabwe.mugabe.amanpour/index.html)

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, in a rare interview Thursday, depicted himself as an African hero battling imperialism and foreign attempts to oust him rather than the widespread perception of a dictator clinging to power at the expense of the welfare of his people and country.

The 85-year-old Mugabe, the only leader of Zimbabwe since it became independent from Britain in 1980, rejected repeated assertions by CNN's Christiane Amanpour that his policies have driven the nation once known as Africa's breadbasket to virtual economic collapse.I

nstead, Mugabe accused Britain and the United States of seeking to oust him by imposing economic sanctions, the effects of which he said were worsened by years of drought.

He denied that his country is in economic shambles, saying it grew enough food last year to feed all its people, and defended policies that have driven white farmers off their land as properly restoring that land to indigenous Africans....

..."Zimbabwe belongs to the Zimbabweans, pure and simple," he said, then adding that white Zimbabweans -- even those born in the country with legal ownership of their land -- have a debt to pay.

"They occupied the land illegally. They seized the land from our people," Mugabe said. When Amanpour pressed him on white farmers being forced off their land, he shot back, "Not just off their land. Our land."

Tom Odom
09-29-2009, 05:16 AM
Small as it may be, a victory against Mugabe's thugs is worth noting as it requires no small amout of bravery.


Zimbabwe court bars activist Mukoko's prosecution (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/09/28/zimbabwe.human.rights.bar/index.html)

HARARE, ZIMBABWE (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's highest court granted a permanent stay of prosecution Monday to a leading human rights activist facing charges of plotting to topple President Robert Mugabe's government.

The court said the abduction and torture in custody of Jestina Mukoko grossly violated her rights.

Tom Odom
10-03-2009, 11:44 AM
Good piece on Mr. Mugabe from VOA, courtesy of Dave on the SWJ roundup.
Obviously the rules don't apply to the great man or his wife. And you can be sure that the same patronage is taking place among the thuggery elite.

let them eat cake...

Tom



Zimbabwe's Mugabe Has Built a Secret Farming Empire (http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-10-02-voa50.cfm)
By Peta Thornycroft
Southern Africa
02 October 2009

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has said his fast-track land reform program, launched in 2000, was to give Zimbabwean land back to landless blacks and that each individual should acquire and own only one farm. However VOA has discovered that he has taken five formerly white-owned farms, while his wife Grace Mugabe has taken six. VOA spoke with several workers from several of the farms, some of whom have been working on the farms for decades.

M-A Lagrange
10-04-2009, 08:40 PM
I have just spoken with a Zimbabwean policeman. It is incredible how the people from the security apparatus still support the old man. He can get whatever he wants, they will forgive him. At least the very few ones who benefit from him. Even opponents inside ZANU-PF are in on the farm business. In 2007, the army was more involved into harvesting maize for export than training.

Tom Odom
10-07-2009, 06:37 AM
I am sure the West is lining up. Who wants to be first to get fleeced?


Mugabe Wants New Start to Relations With Western Nations (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,561200,00.html)

HARARE, Zimbabwe — President Robert Mugabe called Tuesday for a new start to relations with those Western countries he has spent years insulting for their criticism of his leadership.

"Our country remains in a positive stance to enter into fresh, friendly and cooperative relations with all those countries that have been hostile to us in the past," he said.

Mugabe spoke to legislators at the first sitting of parliament since a unity government was formed with the former opposition in February.

davidbfpo
10-07-2009, 10:08 PM
The "new" coalition government has a few problems:


Riot police shot and seriously injured three mine workers at Zvishavane who were part of a strike action towards the end of September. Rather than holding the police accountable the victims were charged with public violence and had to appear in court in wheelchairs.


The public perception that the Zanu PF party is not at all serious about addressing human rights violations or re-establishing non-partisan law and order in Zimbabwe is most heavily highlighted by the news that members of the disbanded Joint Operations Command - now the National Security Council - are said to be holding secret meetings with Robert Mugabe, excluding Morgan Tsvangirai who, under the GPA, is a member of the National Security Council. Analysts have reportedly said that these secretive meetings constitute the worst violation of the Global Political Agreement by the Zanu PF party.


The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank, Mr Mashwiringwani, denied Louis Fick access to 4,000 pigs on Fick's Friedewil Farm. Mr Mashwiringani's tactics were a calculated attempt to use animal cruelty to force the farmer to give up more livestock pens. Farm employees working on Friedewil Farm were also beaten by thugs loyal to the Deputy Governor.

I've left other episodes aside. The combination of police, military and central bankers is quite an indictment (JMM maybe wrong word) of the baron state Zimbabwe is.

From: http://www.sokwanele.com/

M-A Lagrange
10-08-2009, 01:22 PM
The public perception that the Zanu PF party is not at all serious about addressing human rights violations or re-establishing non-partisan law and order in Zimbabwe is most heavily highlighted by the news that members of the disbanded Joint Operations Command - now the National Security Council - are said to be holding secret meetings with Robert Mugabe, excluding Morgan Tsvangirai who, under the GPA, is a member of the National Security Council. Analysts have reportedly said that these secretive meetings constitute the worst violation of the Global Political Agreement by the Zanu PF party.

Since 2000, Bob has had a paralell administration ran by ex-liberation fighters. Even before the elections, observers in Zimbabwe were sceptical on the capacities of Tsangirai to be capable to run the state if he won. The administration in place is not the one rulling (and probably never was) the place. We should not be surprised. It is part of Mugabe strategy to keep power: apparently sharing power with opposition but if they do not comply with him, keeping a personal hand on the security apparatus. What Tsangirai is experimenting is what happened to ZAPU.

Tom Odom
10-19-2009, 07:03 AM
So the opposition steps back from partnering with Mugabe after their Minister of Agriculture is charged with high treason.

Maybe we just merge the DRC and Zimbabwe and call it Chaos...


Opposition official's trial on hold in Zimbabwe (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/10/17/zimbabwe.politician.trial/index.html)HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- A Zimbabwean court postponed the trial of key opposition figure Roy Bennett on Saturday to allow his lawyers time to prepare their case.

It is unclear when coffee farmer Roy Bennett will go to trial on weapons charges.

Bennett, the Movement for Democratic Change's nominee for the deputy agriculture minister post, faces charges of possessing weapons for sabotage, banditry and terrorism.

His trial had been scheduled to begin Monday at a high court in Mutare, but his defense team asked the judge for more time to prepare their case.

davidbfpo
10-19-2009, 02:47 PM
Tom and others,

In response to this legal persecution the MDC has 'disengaged' from the joint government: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8310629.stm

Clearly this is not departure or resignation, so I cannot see how this can be effective. What will the "robber barons" i.e. ZANU-PF and Mugabe do? Yes, continue to rule as before minus the MDC camouflage of unity IMHO.

The country to be called 'Chaos' nice one Tom. Somehow after the Zimbabwean intervention in DRC, military-led commerce in effect, I doubt they will want to return, but then as Zimbabwe slides is there any profit to be made?

davidbfpo

Stan
10-19-2009, 05:33 PM
Chaos it is !
Much like Uncle Mo however, Mugabe has yet to learn what's coming and in what form. At his age, humiliation and exile are not good alternatives.

Mugabe is the Mobutu of our time (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3724/is_20080322/ai_n24952527/)


... Like Mobutu, Mugabe came to power promising a new dawn for a nation that had just emerged from under a white minority rule. Like Mobutu, Mugabe will leave or be forced out of power amid political repression and economic collapse.

M-A Lagrange
10-29-2009, 09:07 AM
Chaos it is !
Much like Uncle Mo however, Mugabe has yet to learn what's coming and in what form. At his age, humiliation and exile are not good alternatives.

From reuters 29/10/09

Invited by prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai, the special envoy of UN on torture has been arrested and sent back to South Africa on the very day of his arrival in Harare.

Humiliating and sending to exile others seems to be his solution.

carl
10-29-2009, 02:34 PM
Maybe we just merge the DRC and Zimbabwe and call it Chaos...

I think you calumnize the DRC.

I have a question. The white farmers are going to lose all. The opposition will be bought off, jailed, driven out, cowed into submission or killed. Nothing much will change while Bob is alive.

What will happen when Bob dies? You guys are qualified to speculate and I am interested in what you think not only in Zim but the region. Also as it relates to Zim, what will happen when Mandela dies?

Tom Odom
10-29-2009, 04:12 PM
I think you calumnize the DRC.


By that you mean this?


calumny
A false statement maliciously made to injure another's reputation. 2. The utterance of maliciously false statements; slander. ...

If so, I will just say that I believe I have earned my opinions on the DRC through long study, extensive writing, and living through some of its chaos. Since I refer to Kinshasa in my memoirs as an old whore as I saw her in 1994, malice perhaps. False statements, nope, not when compared to what she looked like in 1984. A Belge-American who brought his parents over for the first time since they unassed in 1960 said they simply broke down and started crying at the state of the Congo. Stan has years longer on the ground than I and he is tougher on the place than I am. Give him a few beers and he will really tell you what he thinks. As for injuring the reputation, it is hard to find a worse reputation; you pretty much have to start with Somalia and then the DRC comes next in the ladder of chaos.

I would say that Zimbabwe is not far behind. The real issue is no longer Bob--it is Bob's thugs, several generations of them. They will not go gently into the night when Bob does the place a favor by dying, whatever the cause.

Tom

carl
10-29-2009, 05:01 PM
Tom:

hold on. don't hit me. the comment was meant as an ironic joke, an attempt to illustrate how bad things have become in Zim. unfortunately, the only thing the comment accomplished was showing how good I am at typifying the truism
that if you have to explain a joke, it was a really lousy one.

What do you think those thugs will do when Bob dies?