Small War in Mexico: 2002-2015 (closed)

[SWJ Blog]

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico: Web and Social Media Resources (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/01/criminal-insurgencies-in-mexic/)

Entry Excerpt:

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico:
Web and Social Media Resources
by Dr. Robert J. Bunker and Lt. John P. Sullivan

Download The Full Article: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico: Web and Social Media Resources (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/644-bunker.pdf)

The authors of this piece, individually, collectively, and in cooperation with other scholars and analysts, have written about the criminal insurgencies in Mexico and various themes related to them in Small Wars Journal and in many other publications for some years now. The Small Wars publications alone include “State of Siege: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/doc-temp/84-sullivan.pdf),” “Plazas for Profit: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/doc-temp/232-sullivan.pdf),” “Cartel v. Cartel: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/doc-temp/358-sullivan.pdf),” “The Spiritual Significance of ¿Plata O Plomo? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/444-bunker.pdf),” “Explosive Escalation?: Reflections on the Car Bombing in Ciudad Juarez (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/474-sullivan.pdf),” and “The U.S. Strategic Imperative Must Shift From Iraq/Afghanistan to Mexico/The Americas and the Stabilization of Europe (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/567-bunker.pdf).” Certain truths have become evident from such writings and the raging conflicts that they describe and analyze.

First, the criminal insurgencies in Mexico have been increasing in intensity since the formal declaration of war—penned with the initial deployment of Army units into Michoacán and Ciudad Juárez against the insurgent gangs and cartels—by the Calderón administration in December 2006. Over 30,000 deaths in Mexico, just over ten-times the death toll from the 9-11 attacks, have now resulted from these conflicts with 2010 surpassing the earlier end of year tallies with almost 13,000 total killings. While most of these deaths have been attributed to cartel on cartel violence, an increasing proportion of them include law enforcement officers (albeit many of them on cartel payroll), military and governmental personnel, journalists, and innocent civilians. While some successes have been made against the Mexican cartels, via the capture and targeted killings of some of the capos and ensuing organizational fragmentation, the conflicts between these criminal groups and the Mexican state, and even for neighboring countries such as Guatemala, is overall not currently going well for these besieged sovereign nations. Recent headlines like those stating “Mexico army no match for drug cartels” and “Drug gang suspects threaten ‘war’ in Guatemala” are becoming all too common. Further, it is currently estimated that in Mexico about 98% of all crimes are never solved—providing an air of impunity to cartel and gang hit men and foot soldiers, many of whom take great delight in engaging in the torture and beheading of their victims.

Second, Small Wars Journal readers, especially those in the United States, need to appreciate the strategic significance of what is taking place in Mexico, Central America and in other Latin American countries, and increasingly over the border into the United States itself. War and insurgency in Iraq, Afghanistan, Western Pakistan, and in other distant OCONUS locales ultimately represent much lower stakes than the high levels of strife, establishment of criminal enclaves and depopulated cartel security zones, and rise of narco-cities—such as Nuevo Laredo under the Cártel del Golfo (CDG)—now taking place on our Southern border and extending down through Central America. A chilling example of the criminal insurgencies being waged is the fate of the contested city of Ciudad Juárez—over 230,000 people have fled, primarily the business elite and skilled workers; 6,000 businesses have closed, and tens-of-thousands of homes now stand vacant or have been abandoned. While Ciudad Juárez may represent an extreme form of urban implosion, this pattern is being repeated in numerous towns throughout Mexico with many such towns and small villages in Northern Mexico now partially or fully abandoned and, even in some instances, burned to the ground. To add insult to injury, some of the cartel conflict now taking place in the urban plazas and rural transit routes is being described in an almost post-apocalyptic manner with make shift armored pickups and even a ten-wheeled armored dump truck able to carry ten enforcers and with the combatants engaging in firefights with high caliber and anti-tank weapons. It must now be accepted that the cartels and gangs of Mexico, Central America, and increasingly South America have morphed from being solely narcotics based trafficking entities to being complex, diversified criminal organizations. These criminal enterprises are increasingly politicized and armed with military grade weaponry, backed up with the training and esprit de corps necessary for them to make war on sovereign states. This asymmetric war now being waged is derived from their unique and evolving criminal insurgency tenets using not only the bribe and the gun but also, information operations (http://mountainrunner.us/2010/11/cartel_info_ops_power_and_counter-power_in_Mexico_drug_war.html), and increasingly, deviant forms of spirituality in order to further dark and morally bankrupt agendas.

Download The Full Article: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico: Web and Social Media Resources (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/644-bunker.pdf)

Dr. Robert J. Bunker holds degrees in political science, government, behavioral science, social
science, anthropology-geography, and history. Past associations have included Futurist in Residence, FBI Academy, Quantico, VA; Counter-OPFOR Program Consultant (Staff Member), National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center—West, El Segundo, CA; Fellow, Institute of Law Warfare, Association of the US Army, Arlington, VA; Lecturer-Adjunct Professor, National Security Studies Program, California State University San Bernardino, San Bernardino, CA; instructor, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA; and founding member, Los Angeles County Terrorism Early Warning Group. Dr. Bunker has over 200 publications including short essays, articles, chapters, papers and book length documents. These include Non-State Threats and Future Wars (editor); Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency (editor); Criminal-States and Criminal-Soldiers (editor); Narcos Over the Border (editor). He can be reached at bunker@usc.edu.

John P. Sullivan is a regular contributor to Small Wars Journal. He is a career police officer and currently serves as a lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST). He is co-editor of Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorism Network (Routledge, 2006) and Global Biosecurity: Threats and Responses (Routledge, 2010). His current research focus is the impact of transnational organized crime on sovereignty, intelligence, terrorism, and criminal insurgencies.



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[AdamG]

FORT QUITMAN, Texas -- At least one Mexican gunman fired a high-powered rifle across the border at four U.S. road workers Thursday in an isolated ghost town east of Fort Hancock, Hudspeth County sheriff's officials said. The bullets did not injure the four men.

Mike Doyle, chief deputy of the Hudspeth County Sheriff's Office, said a rancher spotted a white pickup fleeing the area on the Mexican side at 10:30 a.m. -- the time the shots were fired.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_17087113?source=most_viewed


One of the most violent and notorious drug gangs in Mexico has reportedly circulated a letter announcing a one month ceasefire. In the letter, allegedly signed by the La Familia drug cartel, the gang said it will stop all criminal activity in the western state of Michoacan for the month of January to prove that its members are not responsible for all the violence the media has attributed to them.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/01/03/2011-01-03_la_familia_drug_cartel_in_mexico_reportedly_cal ls_one_month_truce_in_western_sta.html#ixzz1B1nFrh Rm

[davidbfpo]

Grim reading and maybe nothing new for SWC readers, except IMHO it has appeared on a UK/European website.

Opens with:
In the end, this is a war about fundamental human justice in almost every conceivable sense of that phrase. The solution, if there is one, will require an international response.

Later this is more telling:
...the drug trade provides a path out of poverty and access to a life-style unobtainable, indeed not even thinkable, in the world of so-called legitimate activity. Here lies the challenge not just to Mexico, but to a wider world.

The very last paragraph is well odd, not the one above and I do not follow the author's argument. Revolution via narcotics?

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/jeremy-fox/mexnarcos

[slapout9]

The very last paragraph is well odd, not the one above and I do not follow the author's argument. Revolution via narcotics?



David, what is it you find so confusing?

[carl]

David:

The author of that piece seems to equate criminality with a search for social justice. The criminals I met were just out for themselves, though they were always willing to put one over on the gullible by playing the social justice card.

Somebody once told me the Mexicans will take it and take it and take it, then the next second they go completely crazy and turn the world upside down. I wonder if that will happen.

[davidbfpo]

Slap & Carl,

The full last paragraph I had reservations over is:
In the end, this is a war about fundamental human justice in almost every conceivable sense of that phrase. The solution, if there is one, will require an international response; solidarity with Mexico as the country struggles to find a path to peace, and maybe something more - recognition that neither peace nor justice can be achieved while so many millions of our fellow human beings lack the wherewithal to live a dignified life. Four hundred and fifty years ago, in 1562, the great French essayist Montaigne heard the message in Paris from the lips some of the first South Americans to cross the Atlantic.

....(the visitors) noted that though there were some men among us of great wealth, many were ragged, half-starved beggars; and they found it strange that people who suffered such injustice did not rise up and take the rich by the throat or set fire to their houses.

That may well be what the cartels are about.

My understanding of revolutions is far from a population assailed by crime and violence that allows or enables criminal gangs to violently overthrow the state. Cartels with a socio-economic agenda I think not.

[slapout9]

My understanding of revolutions is far from a population assailed by crime and violence that allows or enables criminal gangs to violently overthrow the state. Cartels with a socio-economic agenda I think not.

I agree with that. The part that I thought was upsetting was the religious overtone of some of the comments in the article. When religion combines with criminals you can end up with a very big problem that amounts to people using crime/criminal methods to fight for their god given rights or to correct an injustice... now that can certainly turn into a revolution.

[AdamG]

EXCLUSIVE: A book celebrating suicide bombers has been found in the Arizona desert just north of the U.S.- Mexican border, authorities tell Fox News.
The book, "In Memory of Our Martyrs," was spotted Tuesday by a U.S. Border Patrol agent out of the Casa Grande substation who was patrolling a route known for smuggling illegal immigrants and drugs.
Published in Iran, it consists of short biographies of Islamic suicide bombers and other Islamic militants who died carrying out attacks.

*
"At this time, DHS does not have any credible information on terrorist groups operating along the Southwest border," a Department of Homeland Security official said in a statement. "We work closely with our partners in the law enforcement and intelligence communities and as a matter of due diligence and law enforcement best practice, report anything found, no matter how significant or insignificant it may seem."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/01/27/iranian-book-celebrating-suicide-bombers-arizona-desert/#ixzz1CIBiHvlQ

[AdamG]

U.S. border guards got a surprise when they searched a Mexican BMW and found a hardline Muslim cleric - banned from France and Canada - curled up in the boot.
Said Jaziri, who called for the death of a Danish cartoonist that drew pictures of the prophet Mohammed, was being smuggled into California when he was arrested, along with his driver Kenneth Robert Lawler.
The 43-year-old was deported from Canada to his homeland Tunisia in 2007 after it emerged he had lied on his refugee application about having served jail time in France.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1351385/Controversial-Muslim-cleric-caught-smuggled-U-S-Mexico-border.html#ixzz1CLLXRGJ8

[AdamG]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YLby2mxzp4


Drug smugglers trying to get drugs across the U.S.-Mexico border are getting old-school: they're trying a catapult*.

http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/012711_drug_trebuchet

* Looks technically more like a Trebuchet.

Full disclosure : I made an inner-tube powered catapult from Erector Set parts in Boy Scouts.

You may now post your Monty Python French Knight quotes below.

[SWJ Blog]

El Imperativo Estratégico de Estados Unidos Debe Cambiar de Irak/Afganistán a México/Las Américas y la Estabilización de Europa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/02/el-imperativo-estrategico-de-e/)

Entry Excerpt:

El Imperativo Estratégico de Estados Unidos Debe Cambiar de Irak/Afganistán a México/Las Américas y la Estabilización de Europa
por Dr. Robert J. Bunker

Transfiera el artículo completo: El Imperativo Estratégico de Estados Unidos Debe Cambiar de Irak/Afganistán a México/Las Américas y la Estabilización de Europa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/670-bunker.pdf)

Los Estados Unidos al momento se enfrenta con dos niveles de amenazas no estatal (red), pero solo uno de ellos es abiertamente reconocido. Al Qaeda y otros elementos del Islam radical, han sido reconocidos como la amenaza número 1 desde el 11 de Septiembre del 2001 que mato a casi 3,000 Americanos y causo más de 100 millones de dólares en daños a la infraestructura, la respuesta de emergencia, y los trastornos económicos. Esta amenaza que acumula atención de los medios, sin embargo, en muchos frentes palidece en comparación representada por los carteles de la droga y bandillas de narco, que durante décadas han ido evolucionando, mutando y creciendo en capacidad y poder en las Américas. Mientras por lo pronto esto es visto como “un asunto crimen y aplicación a la ley”, como Al Qaeda fue pre – 9-11, esta amenaza estratégica más sutil y envolvente ha dado como resultado la muerte de más de 100.000 ciudadanos de las Américas (unos 30.000 solo en México en los últimos 4 anos) y ha causado la desestabilización de un numero de países incluyendo México, Guatemala y Honduras, y fue testigo del aumento de la influencia narco dentro de las regiones del territorio de los Estados Unidos a lo largo de su frontera sur. Económicamente, los daños sufridos y los trastornos ocasionados por el cartel de droga y las actividades de pandillas narcotraficantes a los particulares, las economías locales, y organismos gubernamentales es más allá de la marca de un trillón de dólares y sigue aumentando. Ambos de estas amenazas no-estatal (red) reta a las instituciones de las muchas naciones afectadas, la lealtad de las poblaciones indígenas para el propio Estado, y son indicativos de la ‘guerra sobre la organización social y política’ que ahora se libra en varias regiones del mundo.

Transfiera el artículo completo: El Imperativo Estratégico de Estados Unidos Debe Cambiar de Irak/Afganistán a México/Las Américas y la Estabilización de Europa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/670-bunker.pdf)

El Dr. Robert J. Bunker tiene títulos en la ciencia política, gobierno, ciencia del comportamiento, ciencias sociales, geografía-antropología, e historia. Entrenamiento tomado incluye la proporcionada por DHS, FLETC, DIA, Cal DOJ, Cal POST, LA JRIC, NTOA, y entidades privadas de seguridad en la lucha contra el terrorismo, contra-vigilancia, respuesta a incidentes, protección de la fuerza, y la inteligencia. Dr. Bunker ha participado en trabajo en equipo rojo y ejercicios de lucha contra el terrorismo y ha proporcionad apoyo a las operaciones dentro del Condado de los Ángeles.



--------
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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Angry at U.S. Official's 'Insurgency' Remark (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/02/mexico-angry-at-us-officials-i/)

Entry Excerpt:

The Associated Press, via The Houston Chronicle, reports that Mexico is angry at a U.S. official's 'insurgency' remark (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/latinamerica/7419531.html). It seems Mexico's Interior Department took great exception to U.S. Undersecretary of the Army Joseph Westphal's (http://www.army.mil/Leaders/usa/) comment "as all of you know, there is a form of insurgency in Mexico with the drug cartels that's right on our border (http://wireupdate.com/wires/14956/army-official-says-u-s-troops-might-be-needed-in-mexico/)" on Monday at the Hinckley Institute of Politics (http://www.hinckley.utah.edu/events/index.html). Westphal has since retracted his categorization of Mexico's drug-related violence saying he "mistakenly characterized the challenge posed by drug cartels to Mexico as “a form of insurgency.”" Mark Krikorian of National Review Online's The Corner says "the number-two civilian official in the Army committed a Kinsleyan gaffe Monday by telling the truth (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/259341/better-get-fence-built-mark-krikorian)."

What say you?



--------
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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth


Interestingly, the part of this argument pertaining to guns has been adopted by many politicians and government officials in the United States in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials confidently assert that 90 percent of the weapons used by the Mexican drug cartels come from the United States. However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars in Mexico — and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached — clearly demonstrates that the number is more political rhetoric than empirical fact.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110209-mexicos-gun-supply-and-90-percent-myth

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - Mexico is struggling to avert a collapse of law and order along its northern border in a region that generates a quarter of its economic output, with two states already facing the threat of criminal anarchy.

Even after four years of dramatic military sweeps, drug cartels in Chihuahua and Tamaulipas are extending their control over large areas and the state governments seem powerless to stop them.

Mass jail breaks, abandoned police stations, relentless killings and gangs openly running criminal rackets such as gasoline stolen from pipelines are the new reality in regions once at the forefront of Mexico's efforts to modernize and prosper under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_mexico_ice_agents_shot;_ylt=ApTJWt_xTGogowVcxLG ZvuV2wPIE;_ylu=X3oDMTM5bTVib3QxBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTE wMjE2L2x0X21leGljb19pY2VfYWdlbnRzX3Nob3QEY2NvZGUDc mFuZG9tBGNwb3MDNQRwb3MDNQRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXM Ec2xrA2d1bm1lbmtpbGx1cw--


MEXICO CITY – The killing of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent and wounding of another in Mexico highlights the risk for American officials helping with Mexico's crackdown on organized crime under increasing cooperation between the two countries.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/us-mexico-drugs-idUSTRE71E4GF20110215

[Bob's World]

As I'm reading this article regarding the meeting between Presidents Obama and Calderon, a viable Mexican COA struck me.

My position on Mexico and drugs remains:

1. This is not an insurgency by any stretch. This is business, but it illegal and highly profitable business so it is impacting the governance of the country.

2. Supply and Demand. Targeting supply without addressing demand is foolish. The number one thing the US can do to assist Mexico is to develop and adopt a creative legalization and demand reduction program. For a wide range of reasons (we all know the old adage that "capital is a coward" in regards to investments in unstable areas. We can add to that "capital officials are cowards" too. Not physically per se, but rather afraid to do the right thing when it will cost them their position to do so (with a few notable exceptions).

So, what can Mexico do? Why not legalize their end of the business. They can make the use of drugs as illegal as they want to, but make the production, transportation and marketing completely legal. Tax the hell out of it and pipe the problem free and clear right up to the US border. Mexico immediately begins to stabilize, and the vast wealth currently going into the pockets of a few criminals becomes much more distributed across the populace.

Of course America would have a cow. "How could you do this to us???" we would cry.

"No, how could you do this to us?" Mexico would reply.

Perhaps such a play would finally give US politicians the out to do what they've known they needed to do for years, but always lacked the will to take on.

[AdamG]

ATF Let Hundreds of U.S. Weapons Fall into Hands of Suspected Mexican Gunrunners
Whistleblower Says Agents Strongly Objected to Risky Strategy


Hoping to score a major prosecution of Mexican drug lords*, federal prosecutors and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives permitted hundreds of guns to be purchased and retained by suspected straw buyers with the expectation they might cross the border and even be used in crimes while the case was being built, according to documents and interviews.

The decision — part of a Phoenix-based operation code named “Fast and Furious” — was met by strong objections from some front-line agents who feared they were allowing weapons like AK-47s to “walk” into the hands of drug lords and gun runners, internal agency memos show. Indeed, scores of the weapons came back quickly traced to criminal activity.

http://www.publicintegrity.org/articles/entry/2976/


* Along with splashy headlines and major career boosts.

[AdamG]

Eric Holder, paging Eric Holder.
The American and Mexican people have some questions for you.

"...approved all the way to the Justice Department".

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7358389n&tag=watchnow

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/03/eveningnews/main20039031.shtml


Senior agents including Dodson told CBS News they confronted their supervisors over and over. Their answer, according to Dodson, was, "If you're going to make an omelette, you've got to break some eggs."

[carl]

"Senior agents including Dodson told CBS News they confronted their supervisors over and over. Their answer, according to Dodson, was, "If you're going to make an omelette, you've got to break some eggs."

What the supervisors really meant to say was "If you want to have really big case that will make the national news and get a bunch of us supervisors promoted because we're geniuses, some people have to die." He got the national news and people dying part right.

[SWJ Blog]

U.S. and Mexico Should Embrace Regional Cooperation (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/03/us-and-mexico-should-embrace-r/)

Entry Excerpt:

CNAS Report: U.S. and Mexico Should Embrace Regional Cooperation to Combat Drug Cartels

As Presidents Obama and Calderón continue to discuss the United States and Mexico's efforts to combat growing drug-related violence, the leaders should look to embrace regional cooperation to combat the cartels, according to a recent report authored by Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bob Killebrew.

In Crime Wars: Gangs, Drugs, and U.S. National Security (http://www.cnas.org/node/5022), Killebrew surveys organized crime throughout the Western Hemisphere and analyzes the challenges it poses to individual countries and regional security. He argues that Mexico will remain a key state in the struggle against violent organized crime in the region, and that the United States should continue to support Mexico's efforts while examining its own role in the ongoing conflict. In addition, the report notes, the United States and Mexico should:

* Increase U.S.-Mexico law enforcement and intelligence cooperation.
* Increase bilateral training and assistance.
* Embrace regional cooperation to attack cartels.
* Attack the cartels’ financial networks and money-laundering capabilities.

“Whether Calderón and his successors can or will sustain a long-term, bloody fight to root out corruption in the Mexican state and reassert the rule of law is a matter of grave concern for the United States,” said Killebrew.

Download Crime Wars: Gangs, Cartels and U.S. National Security (http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_CrimeWars_KillebrewBernal_3.pdf).

This report is also available for download in Spanish: Guerras del Crimen: Pandillas, Cárteles y la Seguridad Nacional Estadounidense (http://www.cnas.org/node/5516).



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[SWJ Blog]

Optimizing Use of the Armed Forces in Combating Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/03/optimizing-use-of-the-armed-fo/)

Entry Excerpt:

Optimizing Use of the Armed Forces in Combating Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations
by Braden Civins

Download The Full Article: Optimizing Use of the Armed Forces in Combating Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/696-civins.pdf)

The drug war in Mexico threatens the stability of the Mexican federal government, catalyzes widespread border crossing by undocumented aliens (UDAs), and imperils U.S. citizens on both sides of the border. This note examines one proposal to address these concerns—additional deployment of the military along the southwest (SW) border—and the legal issues potentially raised by this response. Part I of this note provides background information on the nature of the problem. Part II traces the law governing military support to civilian law enforcement agencies (MSCLEA) with respect to counternarcotics (CN) operations along the southwest (SW) border. Part III examines how the law will either constrain or facilitate MSCLEA with respect to surveillance and detention operations. Part IV offers recommendations to improve the utility of military deployment to the border to combat drug trafficking organizations (DTOs).

Download The Full Article: Optimizing Use of the Armed Forces in Combating Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/696-civins.pdf)

Braden Civins, a native Texan, is in his fourth and final year of study at The University of Texas, pursuing a J.D. from The School of Law and a Master of Global Policy Studies, with a specialization in Security Studies, from the L.B.J. School of Public Affairs.



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[AdamG]

He got the national news and people dying part right.

Don't worry, that'll be pushed down to the bottom of the news cycle as quickly as possible.

Remember the primary message : American firearms are bad, are killing Mexican people and must be regulated. Repeat as needed.

[AdamG]

Mexico City – The most fearsome weapons wielded by Mexico's drug cartels enter the country from Central America, not the United States, according to U.S. diplomatic cables disseminated by WikiLeaks and published here Tuesday by La Jornada newspaper.

Items such as grenades and rocket-launchers are stolen from Central American armies and smuggled into Mexico via neighboring Guatemala, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City reported to Washington.

The assertions appear in embassy cables written after three bilateral conferences on arms trafficking that took place between March 2009 and January 2010 in Cuernavaca, Mexico; Phoenix; and Tapachula, Mexico, respectively.

Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/03/30/mexican-cartels-heavy-weapons-centam-cables-say/#ixzz1I3JWwW9l


http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/03/30/mexican-cartels-heavy-weapons-centam-cables-say/

[slapout9]

Anybody haver any details about why the US ambassador to Mexico resigned??:eek:

[AdamG]

Anybody haver any details about why the US ambassador to Mexico resigned??:eek:



MEXICO CITY — The U.S. ambassador to Mexico resigned Saturday amid furor over a leaked diplomatic cable in which he complained about inefficiency and infighting among Mexican security forces in the campaign against drug cartels.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/19/carlos-pascual-us-ambassador-mexico-resigns_n_838047.html


A law enforcement bulletin has been issued warning that the drug cartels were overheard plotting to kill ICE agents and Texas Rangers guarding the Texas border, officials reported this morning.

The cartel members planned to use AK-47 assault rifles to shoot the agents and rangers from across the border, the bulletin said. It did not name which drug cartel was involved.

The details were released during a hearing before the House Committee on Homeland Security on "The US Homeland Security Role in the Mexican War Against the Drug Cartels."

http://www.themonitor.com/articles/texas-48642-rangers-drug.html

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Using unusually blunt language, FBI Director Robert Mueller told US legislators on Capitol Hill Wednesday that there is an "unprecedented" level of violence in Mexico linked to the country's drug wars.
"I would not call it a full-scale war," Mueller told members of the House of Representatives as he discussed his agency's 2012 budget.
"I would say there are full-scale warring factions that utilize homicide as a mechanism of retaliation, staking out one's turf, retribution, that have contributed substantially to the number of deaths in Mexico," Mueller said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110406/pl_afp/mexicocrimedrugsus_20110406215243

[SWJ Blog]

Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/04/attacks-on-journalists-and-new/)

Entry Excerpt:

Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War:
A Power and Counter Power Assessment
by John P. Sullivan

Download the Full Article: Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/730-sullivan.pdf)

This paper examines the impact of attacks on journalists on media reportage within Mexico’s drug wars, known as “la Inseguridad” in Mexico. It examines two concepts in communication theory (agenda-setting theory and “mind framing” for power and counter-power) to frame the impact of drug cartel information operations (info ops). Specifically, It examines cartel attacks on media outlets, and kidnappings and assassinations of journalists by narco-cartels to gauge the potential impact of the attacks in terms of censorship, cartel co-option of reportage, and the use of new media (horizontal means of mass self-communication).

Download the Full Article: Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/730-sullivan.pdf)

John P. Sullivan is a career police officer. He currently serves as a lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST). He is co-editor of Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorism Network (Routledge, 2006) and Global Biosecurity: Threats and Responses (Routledge, 2010). His current research focus is the impact of transnational organized crime on sovereignty in Mexico and elsewhere.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/04/attacks-on-journalists-and-new/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

Investigators have unearthed human bones and teeth from pits used by a man known as the "Stew-maker," who confessed to dissolving 300 bodies of drug cartel victims, prosecutors said Friday.

Miguel Angel Guerrero, head of the Baja California state prosecutors' office on disappearances, said about 30 bone fragments and 15 tooth fragments were dug up Monday at a ranch in eastern Tijuana that was once occupied by Santiago "El Pozolero" Meza Lopez.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/04/08/bones-mexico-pit-used-body-dissolver/#ixzz1J8E2iF00

[carl]

Adam G:

Thank you for posting the updates on the troubles down there. It is interesting and keep me reminded that things are still far from over to the south.

[slapout9]

Nice article on how US banks help the drug cartels.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/us-bank-mexico-drug-gangs

[davidbfpo]

Slap,

Excellent find and just after the other article elsewhere on the US banking system, in the thread 'The Next America Revolution' and:http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-real-housewives-of-wall-street-look-whos-cashing-in-on-the-bailout-20110411

What I note is the role of the whistle blower, so much for all the other internal and external measures to hinder money laundering.

[motorfirebox]

Regarding the legislation to classify the cartels as terrorist organizations (http://www.brenhambanner.com/articles/2011/03/31/news/news03.txt) and this rebuttal (http://letterstotheeditorblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/04/on-mexico-and-v.html) by the Mexican ambassador:

If you label these organizations as terrorist, you will have to start calling drug consumers in the U.S. "financiers of terrorist organizations" and gun dealers "providers of material support to terrorists."
We don't currently charge heroin users with financing terrorist organizations. On the other hand, I think there are probably more levels between the average dealer and al Qaeda than the average dealer and a cartel. As for pursuing firearms dealers as terrorist provisioners, it seems like too much political strife ("THEYS COMIN FER OUR GUNS") for not enough reward ("We have finally prevented Mexican criminals from getting ahold of handguns! Now they'll be forced to use their assault rifles, grenade launchers, and antitank weapons! VICTORY IS AT HAND!")

[carl]

("We have finally prevented Mexican criminals from getting ahold of handguns! Now they'll be forced to use their assault rifles, grenade launchers, and antitank weapons! VICTORY IS AT HAND!")

You started my day off with a laugh. (I hate it when somebody writes something I wish I had.)

[slapout9]

Slap,

Excellent find and just after the other article elsewhere on the US banking system, in the thread 'The Next America Revolution' and:http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-real-housewives-of-wall-street-look-whos-cashing-in-on-the-bailout-20110411

What I note is the role of the whistle blower, so much for all the other internal and external measures to hinder money laundering.

davidfpo, yes I read that and is a nice cross link. Shakespeare was wrong, it's not the Lawyers it's the Bankers:wry:

[AdamG]

Adam G:

Thank you for posting the updates on the troubles down there. It is interesting and keep me reminded that things are still far from over to the south.

Carl,
You are so welcome.
Now they're closer.



The signature crimes of the most violent drug cartel in Mexico are its beheading and dismemberment of rival gang members, military personnel, law enforcement officers and public officials, and the random kidnappings and killings of civilians who get caught in its butchery and bloodletting.

But this disparate band of criminals known as Los Zetas is no longer just a concern in Mexico. It has expanded its deadly operations across the southwestern border, establishing footholds and alliances in states from New York to California. Just last year, federal agents tied a cocaine operation in Baltimore to the Zetas.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/apr/19/violent-mexican-drug-gang-expands-into-us/

[slapout9]

Mexican Cartels go for Logos and Branding. H/T to John Robb's blog for this.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=udKJeP3j5l0#at=52

[AdamG]

A high-level player with one of the most notorious narco-trafficking organizations in Mexico, the Sinaloa “cartel,” claims that he has been working with the U.S. government for years, according to pleadings filed recently in federal court in Chicago.
That player, Jesus Vicente Zambada Niebla, is the son of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada Garcia — one of the purported top leaders of the Sinaloa drug-trafficking organization. Zambada Niebla was arrested in Mexico in March 2009 and last February extradited to the United States to stand trial on narco-trafficking-related charges.
The indictment pending against Zambada Niebla claims he served as the “logistical coordinator” for the “cartel,” helping to oversee an operation that imported into the U.S. “multi-ton quantities of cocaine … using various means, including but not limited to, Boeing 747 cargo aircraft, private aircraft … buses, rail cars, tractor trailers, and automobiles.”
The revelation that Zambada Niebla claims to have been a U.S. government asset, working with its sanction, is a shocking development in the so-called drug war and has gone largely un-reported by the U.S. media. The claim, if true, adds credence to theories long in play that the Mexican and U.S. governments are essentially showing favor toward the Sinaloa drug organization and its leadership, including El Mayo and Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Lorea, as part of a broader strategy to weaken and ultimately eliminate rival narco organizations. U.S. and Mexican government officials, of course, have consistently denied that any such arrangement is in place.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/bill-conroy/2011/04/mexican-narco-trafficker-s-revelation-exposes-drug-war-s-duplicity

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY (AFP) – Senior US and Mexican officials will meet on Friday to discuss joint efforts to halt the increasingly brutal cross-border drug trade, according to Mexico's foreign ministry.

The Mexican delegation will be lead by Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa, an official told AFP late Monday.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/04/26/u-s-mexican-officials-to-discuss-drug-war-escalation/

[motorfirebox]

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/bill-conroy/2011/04/mexican-narco-trafficker-s-revelation-exposes-drug-war-s-duplicity
I can definitely see that. I understand there's a growing (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704254604574614230731506644.html) movement to treat the war on drugs as an actual war rather than simple law enforcement--to actually strategize more, accept losses in one area for greater gains in another. Playing the cartels against each other would be in line with that.

[bourbon]

New resource, one of its directors covered the region for Janes Intelligence Review:

InSight - Organized Crime in the Americas (http://www.insightcrime.org/)

InSight’s objective is to increase the level of research, analysis and investigation on organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. To this end, InSight has created this website where it connects the pieces, the players and organizations and gives a cohesive look of the region’s criminal enterprises and the effectiveness of the initiatives designed to stop them. InSight’s staff and contributors also write analysis and do field investigations, providing the type of on-the-ground research absent in other monitoring services.

InSight launched its website 1 December 2010, with profiles on groups, personalities, and security initiatives in Mexico and Colombia. With time it will add more countries, regions, groups, personalities and security initiatives to give the most complete, up-to-date picture on organized crime in the region.


Recent stories:
Factions of Sinaloa Cartel Battle in Durango (http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/812-factions-of-sinaloa-cartel-battle-in-durango), 25 April 2011.
Plaza Publica: The Ghost of the Zetas (http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/809-plaza-publica-the-ghost-of-the-zetas), 22 April 2011.

[slapout9]

Hear a very brief radio clip yesterday(can't remember the source) that an IED was found along some major highway in Brownsville,Texas. Fortunately it was found before it was detonated. Anybody kow anything else about this?

[AdamG]

Hear a very brief radio clip yesterday(can't remember the source) that an IED was found along some major highway in Brownsville,Texas. Fortunately it was found before it was detonated. Anybody kow anything else about this?

http://www.examiner.com/drug-cartel-in-national/ied-found-on-road-brownsville-texas-w-video

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/expressway-125637-police-device.html

*
Modified "pineapple" (Frag or dummyFrag?) grenade w/o detonator?

http://www.krgv.com/news/local/story/Investigators-Still-Trying-To-Find-Out-Who-Left/HqlQ4bpSvEKJVsd5JC8PCg.cspx

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/expressway-125665-police-caused.html

[AdamG]

SAN DIEGO -- A terrorist organization whose home base is in the Middle East has established another home base across the border in Mexico.

"They are recognized by many experts as the 'A' team of Muslim terrorist organizations," a former U.S. intelligence agent told 10News.

The former agent, referring to Shi'a Muslim terrorist group Hezbollah, added, "They certainly have had successes in big-ticket bombings."

http://www.10news.com/news/27780427/detail.html

[motorfirebox]

I thought this portion was especially interesting:

Tunnels the cartels have built that cross from Mexico into the U.S. have grown increasingly sophisticated. It is a learned skill, the agent said points to Hezbollah's involvement.

"Where are the knowledgeable tunnel builders? Certainly in the Middle East," he said.

[davidbfpo]

Well even from afar it is obvious the skill in building tunnels is not unique to the Middle East or Kandahar. Whether local engineering talent, Mexican or US, wants to offer their expertise is a moot point.

The cited source is also odd, a former agent who has worked undercover in Mexico now adds his knowledge, including:
..Shi'a Muslim communities in Mexico...Other pockets along the U.S.-Mexico border region remain largely unidentified....The agent, who has spent years deep undercover in Mexico, said Hezbollah is partnering with drug organizations, but which ones is not clear at this time.

Open sources suggest very, very few Muslims in Spain:
Islam in Mexico is practiced by a small population in the city of Torreón, Coahuila, and there are an estimated 300 Muslims in the San Cristóbal de las Casas area in Chiapas

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico

IMHO this report should be taken with a large pinch of dirt!

[motorfirebox]

Yeah, it does seem a bit odd. I wouldn't discount it out of hand, but I'm not completely buying it either.

[AdamG]

A 250-foot long tunnel with electricity, lighting, water pumps and ventilation was discovered in Nogales by border officials. The underground passageway was 3 feet wide by 5 feet tall and originated from an abandoned building in Nogales, Sonora, a Border Patrol news release said. It went 15 feet below ground.
http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/article_c1a76151-eaf9-5c12-b751-5d6b6b0ec8d2.html


(CNN) -- Twelve suspected members of the Zetas drug gang and a member of Mexico's Navy were killed in a shootout on an island in a lake that straddles the U.S.-Mexico border, authorities said Monday.

The Mexican Navy said the shootout occurred Sunday on Falcon Lake, located between Texas and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, after troops patrolling the area spotted a camping area on an island.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/05/09/mexico.violence/?hpt=T2

[AdamG]

Open sources suggest very, very few Muslims in Spain:


Mexico.

From 2005 -


Long a bastion of Catholicism, southern Mexico is quickly turning into a battleground for soul-savers. Islam, too, is gaining a foothold and the indigenous Mayans are converting by the hundreds. The Mexican government is worried about a culture clash in their own backyard.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,358223,00.html

From 2006 -


The ongoing controversy surrounding the debate over illegal immigration and border security issues in the United States, specifically as it applies to the porous U.S.-Mexico frontier and the status of millions of undocumented workers and other migrants that enter the country each year from Mexico, continues to dominate headlines. Although the overwhelming majority of those entering the United States from Mexico each day are in search of opportunity, many observers worry that it is only a matter of time before al-Qaeda exploits this vulnerability for its own ends.

In assessing this threat, Muslim communities in Mexico have come under increasing scrutiny by U.S., Mexican and international security officials both as potential enablers for terrorist infiltration and as ideological sympathizers for the brand of radicalism characteristic of al-Qaeda. Muslim conversion trends in Mexico and Latin America have also raised concerns, especially given al-Qaeda's successes in luring some Muslim converts to its cause. To date, however, these assessments have been way off the mark and in many respects divert attention away from the far more pressing threats at hand. A closer look at the nature of Islam and the outlook of Mexican Muslims may explain why.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=790&tx_ttnews[backPid]=181&no_cache=1


From 2010


Using tried and true methods of investigation, the US Drug Enforcement Administration has uncovered the first indications of a significant drug-terror nexus between Latin America and West Africa, Samuel Logan writes for ISN Security Watch.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?id=111599&lng=en

[bourbon]

Knowledgeable tunnel builders?
It’s been reported that North Korea lends (or more likely sells) its tunneling expertise to Hezbollah. I don’t know the veracity of the reports, but it wouldn’t be surprising.

They have been finding US-Mexico border tunnels for 20 years now, not a new development. I’ve read the cartels bring Indians up from Southern Mexico to dig the tunnels, and in some instances execute them when the job is done.

It is not unheard of for Mexican DTOs to seek out foreign expertise. I’m sure veteran Hezbollah operatives could teach a thing or two. What kind of numbers, and whether the activity sanctioned by Hezbollah, or these guys are rogue or freelancing is another question.

I imagine Hezbollah gets its share of poseurs too!

[tequila]

I'd have to wait on more evidence of this. I remember a lot of talk back in 2006 about how Somali fighters had been brought in by Hizbullah to fight the Israelis, also sans real evidence. Of course we've all heard of the massive Chechen foreign fighter brigades who afflict us in Iraq and Afghanistan - though I'm unaware of us capturing or finding any real-world evidence of genuine Chechens on the ground in either of those theaters.

There's some Lebanese expatriates in Mexico (thank God (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salma_Hayek)), but I'd be more worried about Hezbollah north of the border (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/02/10/lebanese-canadian-bank.html)than south.

[AdamG]

At least 27 people were decapitated at a ranch in northern Guatemala near the border with Mexico, in a grisly mass murder feared linked to drug traffickers operating in the area, police said on Sunday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/guatemala/8515582/At-least-27-people-decapitated-in-Guatemala.html

[AdamG]

The U.S. border with Canada, even though it sees far fewer detentions and arrests every year, is a "more significant threat" to American security than the Mexican border, a senior Homeland Security official said Tuesday.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadian-border-bigger-threat-u-official-172605563.html

[AdamG]

The Zetas may have first entered Guatemala at the invitation of two drug bosses, Otoniel Turcios and Hearst Walter Overdick. But instead of partnering with local Guatemalan smugglers, the Mexicans became intent on displacing them.

The interesting part


Like Guatemala, where the Zetas have recruited from the army's special forces unit, the Kaibiles, the Mexican group has also reportedly attempted to recruit members of the security forces in El Salvador, according to officials. In July 2010, a former Salvadorean police officer was killed in a shootout with the Mexican army in Nuevo Leon, one of nine police agents who may have found work with the Zetas in Mexico, reports El Salvadorean paper El Diario de Hoy.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2011/0518/Guatemala-massacre-points-to-influence-of-Mexican-drug-gang?cmpid=addthis_reddit&sms_ss=reddit&at_xt=4dd3dfce59289b80%2C0

[AdamG]

CHERAN, Mexico (AP) - Masked and wielding rifles, the men of this mountain town stand guard at blockades of tires and sandbags to stop illegal loggers backed by drug traffickers. Their defiance isn't just about defending their way of life; it's one of the first major challenges to the reign of terror unleashed by Mexico's drug cartels.
The indigenous Purepecha people of this town surrounded by mountains of pine forests and neat farmland took security into their own hands last month after loggers, who residents say are backed by cartel henchmen and local police, killed two residents and wounded several others.
"There is no fear here," said one young man, defiantly peering out between a red handkerchief pulled up to his dark eyes and a camouflage baseball cap riding low over his brow. "Here we are fighting a David-and-Goliath battle because we are standing up to organized crime, which is no small adversary."


http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_18087885?source=most_viewed


Village Boy 2: We're ashamed to live here. Our fathers are cowards.
O'Reilly: Don't you ever say that again about your fathers, because they are not cowards. You think I am brave because I carry a gun; well, your fathers are much braver because they carry responsibility, for you, your brothers, your sisters, and your mothers. And this responsibility is like a big rock that weighs a ton. It bends and it twists them until finally it buries them under the ground. And there's nobody says they have to do this. They do it because they love you, and because they want to. I have never had this kind of courage. Running a farm, working like a mule every day with no guarantee anything will ever come of it. This is bravery. That's why I never even started anything like that... that's why I never will.

[AdamG]

It was like a scene out of Grand Theft Auto, but it was all too real.
Mexican soldiers seized a big cache of weapons after fighting a running gunbattle with drug cartel gunmen fleeing in a 17-vehicle convoy near a northern border city, the military said Thursday.

Mexico's Defense Department said three suspected gunmen were killed and three captured in the confrontation Wednesday.

Soldiers seized 83 assault rifles and shotguns, five grenade launchers and more than 18,000 rounds of ammunition as well as hand grenades, 18 pistols and about 17.5 pounds of marijuana, a statement said.

Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/05/20/grand-theft-auto-esque-scene-sees-mexican-soldiers-battling-drug-cartel/#ixzz1MuuTBZXo

[AdamG]

Two weeks ago, Mexican army forces captured a tank built by a drug cartel capable of hauling 12 gunmen and reaching 68 mph. Now authorities have taken another off the street — one that shows how every iteration gets tougher.

This one, dubbed the "compacto" version of El Monstruo 2010, appears to be a 2011 Ford SuperDuty truck chassis armored all over and given a bay for ferrying up to 10 gunmen. Captured in Jalisco, this version also came with its own entertainment system via speakers built into the back hatch, along with "satellite communications equipment." And unlike the El Monstruo '11, the builders were smart enough to protect the truck's wheels from stray bullets.

http://jalopnik.com/5804681/mexican-drug-gangs-lose-second-homebuilt-tank

[AdamG]

Cartel OP/LPs, Pancho Villa style.
Paging General Pershing, General Blackjack Pershing to the courtesy phone please....


TUCSON, Ariz. — Hiking through rough Arizona desert terrain a few miles north of the Mexican border recently with a group of armed DEA agents, we were approached by a lone U.S. Border Patrol agent. He warned we should be careful up ahead, because two people believed to be spotters for a Mexican drug cartel had just been seen running down a ridge to elude U.S. authorities.

By now, agents told us, the men were probably hunkered down in a cave or crevice to wait out the patrol. But just to be safe, the DEA agents spread out to cover more ground as they moved forward again, watching closely for the suspected Mexican surveillance team likely sent by drug traffickers to spy on American law enforcement officials on their own soil.

*
“Typically these are low-level members of the Sinaloa cartel, the Mexican cartel, and we estimate at any given time there are about two or three hundred scouts working in these positions,” said Scott, the DEA agent. “With night-vision goggles, binoculars and things like that, the scouts check for Border Patrol presence, DEA presence, any law enforcement and they help guide and coordinate the smugglers on the ground.”

To speak with each other, and with the smugglers below, agents said, the spotters use sophisticated radios with rolling encryption, the sort used by military organizations. They also use radio repeaters and set up solar panels to charge the equipment.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43096521/ns/nightly_news/

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY—Three days of raging gun battles this week between rival drug gangs in Michoacán state killed an unknown number of people, forced hundreds to flee their homes and raised fresh fears that another major Mexican state has become all but ungovernable.

Fighting broke out Monday and lasted for three days. But news of the conflict was slow to get out because local media in states like Michoacán have largely stopped covering the carnage on orders from drug gangs.


The situation is so bad that Mexico's three main political parties on Wednesday signed a joint statement saying they were exploring the possibility of fielding a single, unity candidate in November's gubernatorial race in an attempt to set aside partisan bickering and save the state.


The uptick in violence in Michoacán this week could be related to December's killing of La Familia chief Nazario Moreno, the messianic leader of the cartel who was known as "El Mas Loco," or "The Craziest One."

But in March, dozens of banners pinned up across the state announced the creation of a new local cartel, dubbed "The Knights Templar." The Templars are thought to be remnants of La Familia that have regrouped.



Raul Benitez, a security analyst at the Autonomous University of Mexico said the federal government is determined not to lose control of Michoacán in part because of its strategic location between Mexico and Guadalajara, the country's two largest cities. "Michoacán is a big problem," said Mr. Benitez, who fears the violence that plagues the state could contaminate the capital and Guadalajara.

Unlike Mexico's other cartels, La Familia and the Templars have a messianic creed and strive to gain popular support among the local population. This worries Mexican officials who see the drug traffickers taking on some of the characteristics of guerrilla fighters, said Mr. Benitez.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576346410044266434.html





MORELIA, Mexico — Mexico’s federal police detained nearly 50 members of two major drug cartels, including suspects in the recent armed attack on a police helicopter, authorities said Saturday.


In a separate incident, an Air Force helicopter crashed Saturday near the same violence-plagued Michoacan city of Apatzingan where the first helicopter had been shot on Tuesday, the Defense Department said in a statement.

This time, however,the crash was an accident caused by apparent mechanical failure and is being investigated, the Defense Department said. The pilot and co-pilot suffered minor injuries when the chopper went down in a wooded area shortly after lifting off from a local Army base.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mexican-police-detain-nearly-50-members-of-2-major-drug-cartels-la-familia-and-the-zetas/2011/05/28/AGPHsYDH_story.html

and
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=395228&CategoryId=14091

[Kevin23]

I was reading the piece on the drug related violence in Mexico by Bunker and Sullivan:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/769-bunkersullivan.pdf, and I just had some questions about the problems manifesting south of the border in general.

The article spoke in the beginning of how values and attitudes are being affected by the conflict. I would really like to see some polling or statistical results on this subject.

Additionally, is there really any truth to the claims in the article(even though they had through citations) that the drug cartels taking on a pesudo-religious cult like aspect? I haven't seen that mentioned in the news, lit, or ever brought up before on this site or others. Although why back during the intervention in Panama against Noreiga, I had they found cult like items amongst his entourage and amongst some gangs.

[AdamG]

If you ever watch video or look at pictures of the drug war in Mexico, you'll notice some pretty heavy weapons. This is a war being waged with rockets and plastic explosives, not pea shooters and Saturday Night Specials * You can't buy this stuff at a U.S. gun store. So where do the cartels get it?

According to leaked diplomatic cables, there are three sources.
1. U.S. Defense Department shipments to Latin America, known and tracked by the U.S. State Department as "foreign military sales."
2. Weapons ordered by the Mexican government, tracked by the State Department as "direct commercial sales."
3. Aging, but plentiful arsenals of military weapon stores in Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/04/28/americas-war-arming-mexican-cartels/#ixzz1NxLFjhU0

[AdamG]

First of a three-part series.


Mexico's drug cartels are carving out new territory in Central America, in some of the poorest and most fragile countries in the hemisphere. Mexican gangs are cutting clandestine airstrips in the Guatemalan jungle, laundering money in El Salvador and unloading boatloads of cocaine on the coast of Honduras. The World Bank recently warned that narcotics trafficking poses one of the greatest threats to development in the region.

http://www.npr.org/2011/05/30/136690257/mexican-cartels-spread-violence-to-central-america

[AdamG]

Mexico has long been a trampoline for migrants from around the world trying to bounce over the Rio Grande into the United States. Now Mexico's drug gangs have become increasingly involved in the human trafficking business while the nation's prisons and police are under increased pressure from the crime wave. Amid these conditions, the migrant issue has come to a boil in Mexico.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/mexico/110529/immigration-human-trafficking-drug-gangs

[SWJ Blog]

A Strategy for Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/a-strategy-for-mexico/)

Entry Excerpt:

A Strategy for Mexico?
by Johnny M. Lairsey Jr.

Download the Full Article: A Strategy for Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/790-Lairsey.pdf)

For over a century, United States foreign policy was guided by the Monroe doctrine. Then, around 1890, a nascent concept of American Imperialism was popularized and served to shift foreign policy away from the Monroe Doctrine. Since then the United States has exercised many different forms of foreign policy. The current United States foreign policy as evinced by the United States Secretary of State proclaims that United States freedom and prosperity is linked to the freedom and prosperity of the rest of the world. The approach the United States Department of State uses to preserve our freedoms and prosperity includes building and maintaining international relations and protecting ourselves and our allies against transnational threats. Given the existing conditions in Mexico and the United States current approach to foreign policy the United States should assert its national powers to defeat transnational criminal organizations and help to improve the conditions in Mexico. However, before taking action the United States must clearly articulate the purpose of why it is taking action in a foreign country.

Download the Full Article: A Strategy for Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/790-Lairsey.pdf)

Mr. Johnny Lairsey is DA Civilian serving as a Plans Specialist at US Army North, the Army Service Component Command to US Northern Command and is a recent graduate of the School of Advanced Military Studies. He has over five years of experience as a plans specialist in an operational headquarters and has extensive experience working with other US Government agencies. The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.



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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico: A Mosaic Cartel War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/mexico-a-mosaic-cartel-war/)

Entry Excerpt:

Mexico: A Mosaic Cartel War
by Paul Rexton Kan

Download the Full Article: Mexico: A Mosaic Cartel War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/792-kan.pdf)

A situation of high-intensity crime does not mean that a war is not occurring in Mexico. But it is a war of a different kind. In fact, there are several conflicts occurring at once that blend into each other. There is the conflict of cartels among each other, the conflict within cartels, cartels against the Mexican state, cartels and gangs against the Mexican people and gangs versus gangs. When combined, they form a mosaic cartel war that creates an atmosphere “somewhere between Al Capone’s Chicago and an outright war”. It is not an irregular or regular war; neither is it a small war nor a general war, nor a limited war, nor a total war, nor any of the familiar appellations given to armed conflicts fought by conventional militaries. And, finally it is not “a war about nothing.” It is a multidimensional, multiparty and multi-location armed conflict fought among criminal groups over what are essentially criminal goals; the groups are resisted by the state while their goals are rejected by it, making the state a party to the conflict.

Download the Full Article: Mexico: A Mosaic Cartel War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/792-kan.pdf)

Paul Rexton Kan is currently an Associate Professor of National Security Studies and the Henry L. Stimson Chair of Military Studies at the US Army War College. He is also the author of the book Drugs and Contemporary Warfare (Potomac Books 2009) and was recently the Visiting Senior Counternarcotics Advisor for CJIATF-Shafafiyat (Transparency) at ISAF Headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan. He recently completed field research along the US-Mexico border for his forthcoming book, Cartels at War: Mexico's Drug Fueled Violence and the Threat to US National Security (Potomac Books).



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[AdamG]

The elderly are killed. Young women are raped. And able-bodied men are given hammers, machetes and sticks and forced to fight to the death.

In one of the most chilling revelations yet about the violence in Mexico, a drug cartel-connected trafficker claims fellow gangsters have kidnapped highway bus passengers and forced them into gladiatorlike fights to groom fresh assassins.

Read more: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/topstory/7607122.html#ixzz1PB2ZJSjL

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico's Justiciabarometro (Justice Barometer) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/mexicos-justiciabarometro-just/)

Entry Excerpt:

The Trans-Border Institute (http://www.sandiego.edu/peacestudies/tbi/) has released the results of a new survey of judges, prosecutors, and public defenders in nine different Mexican states. The survey is part of a series of studies, titled the Justiciabarometro (Justice Barometer), which examines the performance of Mexico's criminal justice system through the assessments of those who operate it.

The results are summarized in two recent reports co-authored by Matthew C. Ingram, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk. The full report (135 pages, 14.1MB) can be found here (http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/justiciabarometro-judicial-survey.pdf) and the special report (32 pages, 4.6 MB) can be found here (http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/tbi-assessing-judicial-reform1.pdf).

Continue on for a brief summary of the results...



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[SWJ Blog]

Speaking of Mexico.... (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/speaking-of-mexico/)

Entry Excerpt:

... please tell me this is an example of sensationalized reporting or the source is a bald-faced liar. If not, then let's stop debating whether we should call this an insurgency or not and start debating whether the events down south are part of our world or a Mad Max world (http://trailersandreviews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/mad_max1.jpg):

Narco Gangster Reveals the Underworld (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7607122.html) by Dane Schiller of the Houston Chronicle. BLUF: "Cartels have taken cruelty up a notch, says one drug trafficker: kidnapping bus passengers for gladiator-like fights to the death."



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[AdamG]

The arrested leader of Mexican drug gang the Familia Michoacana revealed that he had recently sought an alliance with the Zetas to support his group in its standoff with rivals the Caballeros Templarios. Jose de Jesus Mendez Vargas, alias "El Chango," was arrested on Tuesday and paraded before the media on Wednesday. (See video below).

http://insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/1128-arrested-kingpin-reveals-zeta-familia-alliance


A convoy of three military trucks loaded with Mexican soldiers crosses the border at Bridge Number Two clearly violating international law.

It happens as Customs and Border Protection inspectors try to figure out what to do.

A CBP spokesperson says they got on the phone with Mexican authorities after being alerted that the military trucks were heading their direction loaded down with soldiers and weapons.

Mexican leaders say the soldiers, who had just been deployed to Nuevo Laredo, didn't know the area, got lost and then made their way through Bridge Two.

http://www.pro8news.com/news/local/Mexican-troops-cross-into-the-United-States--124469714.html

[motorfirebox]

Hah, well, I'm not sure the US has any room to complain on the national sovereignty front...

This paragraph was pretty funny:

Some noted had it been Mexican drug lords they could have taken inspectors by surprise and easily crossed the international border deeper into the United States.
Yes, up until now we've had great success keeping the cartels from crossing the border into the US! Aside from, y'know, all the drugs.

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico: The Accidental Narco? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/mexico-the-accidental-narco/)

Entry Excerpt:

Mexico: The Accidental Narco?
by Paul Rexton Kan

Download the Full Article: Mexico: The Accidental Narco? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/802-kan.pdf)

The Obama Administration’s National Security Strategy clearly makes the case: “Stability and security in Mexico are indispensable to building a strong economic partnership, fighting the illicit drug and arms trade, and promoting sound immigration policy.” For the National Security Strategy, it was the first time that the words “stability and security” were used in association with Mexico. President Barack Obama himself was clearer: “I think it's unacceptable if you've got drug gangs crossing our borders and killing U.S. citizens. I think if one U.S. citizen is killed because of foreign nationals who are engaging in violent crime, that's enough of a concern to do something about it.” But doing something about it is proving to be exceptionally thorny.
With the escalation of drug cartel and gang violence in Mexico directly and indirectly affecting US interests, the US government’s response has been to bolster border security and support Mexican president Felipe Calderon administration’s efforts to break the cartels and strengthen the institutions of the Mexican state. This approach can be labeled as “contain and consolidate”—contain Mexico’s violence within that country while helping Mexico consolidate its government reforms to better combat corruption and tackle the cartels. The centerpiece of this approach is the multi-year, billion dollar Merida Initiative that was initiated in 2008 by the Bush Administration and re-authorized and expanded in 2010 by the Obama Administration. The Merida Initiative is at its core a joint security plan with four pillars: 1) Disrupting organized criminal groups; 2) institutionalizing the rule of law; 3) building a 21st century border; 4) building strong and resilient communities.

Download the Full Article: [/URL]

Paul Rexton Kan is currently an Associate Professor of National Security Studies and the Henry L. Stimson Chair of Military Studies at the US Army War College. He is also the author of the book Drugs and Contemporary Warfare (Potomac Books 2009) and was recently the Visiting Senior Counternarcotics Advisor for CJIATF-Shafafiyat (Transparency) at ISAF Headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan. He recently completed field research along the US-Mexico border for his forthcoming book, Cartels at War: Mexico's Drug Fueled Violence and the Threat to US National Security (Potomac Books).



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[url=http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/mexico-the-accidental-narco/]Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/802-kan.pdf) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
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[SWJ Blog]

Narco-Armor in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/07/narcoarmor-in-mexico/)

Entry Excerpt:

Narco-Armor in Mexico
by John P. Sullivan and Adam Elkus

Download the Full Article: Narco-Armor in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/814-sullivan.pdf)

Known alternatively as “narco-tanks” (narcotanques), “Rhino trucks,” and “monster trucks”(monstruos), the crude armored vehicles emerging in Mexico’s cartel war are evidence of a changing tactical logic on the ground. ”Narco-tanks” are better characterized as improvised armored fighting vehicles (IAFVs)—portending a shift in the infantry-centric nature of the cartel battlespace.

Narco-tactics have been, for the most part, infantry-centric—consisting of small raids, blockades, and gun battles. The use of armored sport utility vehicles for transportation, raids, and tactical in-battle maneuver is largely an extension of the small unit infantry operations that characterize the tactical logic of the cartel war. The presence of armored vehicles ups the ante.

Download the Full Article: Narco-Armor in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/814-sullivan.pdf)

John P. Sullivan is a career police officer. He currently serves as a lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST). He is co-editor of Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorism Network (Routledge, 2006) and Global Biosecurity: Threats and Responses (Routledge, 2010). His current research focus is the impact of transnational organized crime on sovereignty in Mexico and elsewhere.

Adam Elkus is an analyst specializing in foreign policy and security. He is Associate Editor at Red Team Journal. He is a frequent contributor to Small Wars Journal and has published at numerous venues including The Atlantic, Defense Concepts, West Point CTC Sentinel, Infinity Journal, and other publications. He blogs at Rethinking Security.



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[AnalyticType]

I thought this portion was especially interesting:


Tunnels the cartels have built that cross from Mexico into the U.S. have grown increasingly sophisticated. It is a learned skill, the agent said points to Hezbollah's involvement.

"Where are the knowledgeable tunnel builders? Certainly in the Middle East," he said.

The agent making connections between cartel tunnels and Middle Eastern orgs such as Hizballah, whether by intent or (post 9/11) knee-jerk reaction, ignores six centuries of mining history and know-how in Mexico. The modern mining industry in Mexico is huge, and a substantial portion of the population in Sonora, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Nuevo Leon, and about seven other central states have been employed in it. The cartels have no need to seek outside expertise and, as far as I can tell, have not done so.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44166524/ns/world_news-americas/


They prove themselves with escalating acts of violence and earn extra cash by branching into parallel criminal enterprises like kidnapping and extortion.

"It seems like every day we hear of a new group. There are more than I can count," said a U.S. official in Mexico.

Nothing new here, but still interesting to me for the following reasons.

It addresses that the fact that killing and capturing the cartel leaders isn't having a positive effect (an old story, but one we fail to learn).

It points out that gangs are competing with each other by upping the level of mindless violence. There is no attempt by some (perhaps most) gangs to win the support of the locals, but simply to impliment more and more violence, to what end who knows?


The expansion of Mexico's drug trade -- which rakes in an estimated $40 billion per year -- can also fan internal rivalries and divisions. Poppy cultivation in Mexico jumped 500 percent between 2003 and 2009 while marijuana growing tripled, the U.S. government says.

The opportunity to rake in profits, to achieve status, etc. is simply too great for many Mexicans to ignore. Killing off the cartel heads simply makes the problem more complex, and doesn't touch the real issue which is the huge market (demand) for the drugs.

While there have always been violent gangs/outlaws in Mexico, the level of violence now is bound to have long term and serious cultural impacts that will pose security risks for years to come.

[davidbfpo]

A long FP commentary on:
A deadly gun-running gamble just cost America's ATF chief his job. But the gun lobby gave him little choice but to try.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/30/mexican_roulette?page=0,0

The author has his perspective, which is quite clear.

What is missing is why the ATF and partners thought, having persuaded others above them, that this would work:
The aim of Fast and Furious was to investigate, and not, as the ATF had grown accustomed to, interdict. Instead of arresting the so-called "straw purchasers" who buy the guns and pass them on (again, legally, provided they pass a background check), Fast and Furious called for agents to surveil them and try to follow the flow of guns, to move beyond the pawns to the larger players. Of course, this is what investigators and detectives who don't work at agencies hobbled by their elected overseers do every day: allow things to be bought and sold and moved so that they can map out criminal organizations and get to their highest levels.

[Ken White]

A long FP commentary on:

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/30/mexican_roulette?page=0,0

The author has his perspective, which is quite clear.

What is missing is why the ATF and partners thought, having persuaded others above them, that this would work:Good catch David. Looks as though the author is attempting to cast blame on the 'Gun Lobby' in an attempt to deflect attention from overzealous Supervisory ATF Agents and US Attorneys and a badly flawed plan, if one can even call it that... :wry:

ATFE is not hamstrung by the so called gun lobby, most ATFE Agents are sensible and have no problem with legal use of firearms -- that is not true of the managers and senior folks who hew to the attitude of the Administration which hires them much as most street cops do not object to private firearms but their Chiefs tend to support their Mayors who often do object to weapons for political or personal reasons.

The reported effort is, IMO, an textbook illustration of why Law Enforcement agencies should generally not engage in intelligence operations other than purely local and absolutely domestic efforts with clearly defined parameters.

A Law Enforcement officer is trained and sworn to preclude or deter crime and catch malefactors. Asking one to suppress that dedication and allow criminal activity -- or participate in it -- is virtually guaranteed to have a bad outcome.

Far better for dedicated intelligence or counterintelligence agencies to perform such operations, particularly if the breaking of laws is likely to be involved. Here in the US, we have allowed politics and turf battles to intrude on that desirable separation of function. We also are rather hypocritical on the subject of breaking laws to gather intelligence or to contain criminal activity -- essentially, if an effort succeeds, all is sweetness and light, if it fails, the masterminds skate and the minions are punished... :mad:

In the case of this particular effort, the question is indeed why anyone thought this would work at all -- and apparently that the likelihood of blowback was slim. Mind boggling. :eek:

There were other ways to obtain the information desired -- but that would have entailed a competent intelligence operation focused on Mexico and not in the US...

[Balcacer]

MD Geriatric's is my field.
Scare to death with this "Zetas " gang of nuts.

[Ken White]

MD Geriatric's is my field.
Scare to death with this "Zetas " gang of nuts.You have a right to be scared -- those are some hombres muy malo...

Glad you're here -- and I'm about as geriatric as it gets around here -- I'm at that nearly 80 stage where every morning wake up is an adventure and likely to bring new discoveries about what won't work correctly that day. Good thing is that I often can't remember what was wrong yesterday... :D

[AdamG]

A small but growing proxy war is underway in Mexico pitting US-assisted assassin teams composed of elite Mexican special operations soldiers against the leadership of an emerging cadre of independent drug organizations that are far more ruthless than the old-guard Mexican “cartels” that gave birth to them.
These Mexican assassin teams now in the field for at least half a year, sources tell Narco News, are supported by a sophisticated US intelligence network composed of CIA and civilian US military operatives as well as covert special-forces soldiers under Pentagon command — which are helping to identify targets for the Mexican hit teams.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/bill-conroy/2011/08/us-trained-assassin-teams-now-deployed-drug-war

[SWJ Blog]

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/criminal-insurgencies-in-mexico-and-the-americas)

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

Connie Mack: “State Department Not Closely Tracking Threat Of Mexican Drug Cartels.” (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/connie-mack-%E2%80%9Cstate-department-not-closely-tracking-threat-of-mexican-drug-cartels%E2%80%9D)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

While “President [Barack] Obama and others in his administration – particularly Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano – have repeatedly said the US/Mexico border is ‘as secure now as it has ever been,’” Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples told members of the House Committee on the Judiciary’s Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security at a field hearing a week ago that "the bottom line is our border is not secure."

Instead, he told the panel, "what we have are transnational criminal organizations basing their operations in a foreign country and deploying military-type incursions on American soil."

On Monday, Staples backed up his claims with the release of a comprehensive 182-page report that asserted it's the first report “to conclude that [Mexican crime] cartels are following a twofold strategic plan” that is the equivalent of strategic-level war against the US.

http://www.hstoday.us/single-article/mexicos-narco-cartels-represent-strategic-level-of-war-against-us-latin-america/5660af460452573201e76a4388032eb8.html

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY — A paramilitary group is vowing to "eliminate" the Zetas, reputedly Mexico's most violent drug gang, in a video posted on the Internet several days after 49 bodies were found on the streets of Veracruz.

The video, posted on Saturday according to its creators, shows a group of five masked men, dressed in black and seated at a white table, calling themselves the "Mata Zetas," or "Zeta Killers."

"Our intention is to let the people of Veracruz know that these dregs of society are not invincible," one of them says after offering "apologies" to the public and the authorities.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/09/27/mexican-group-vows-to-eliminate-feared-zeta-drug-gang/

[AdamG]

Texas Governor Rick Perry - who is seeking the Republican nomination for US president - has said he would consider sending American troops into Mexico to combat drug-related violence.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15140560

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Challenge for U.S. National Security (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexicos-narco-refugees-the-looming-challenge-for-us-national-security)

Entry Excerpt:



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[Misifus]

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/

The above is a link I use to keep aware of border events and the narco wars. Some of the articles/videos require Spanish language skills, but most don't. This is probably the best website to keep track of recent border events and is used by many of us who are active around the border area. It includes events on the US side.

I will be along the US side later this month, and be on the Mexico side early next year. One should keep in mind the media does tend to sensationalize the narco wars. IMO, Mexico remains a relatively safe and enjoyable place to visit, especially in the more prominent tourist destinations. However, I would not wander around the country without the appropriate language and cultural skills.

Reread my post #93 upthread written last year and muse on how now Veracruz has become a recent narco battleground - a point of ingress. It is is nowhere near the border.

The attached image shows my tracks to/from Saltillo. Big fish recently nabbed there. The city is very tranquil except for those who are in 'da bizniz.' On this particular trip I crossed at Del Rio and rode MEX 57 straight down.

http://www.smugmug.com/photos/559233678_nrHzv-M.jpg

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico’s Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico%E2%80%99s-drug-war)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AnalyticType]

What your experience has been in your travels in MX...

I spend all of my work hours focused upon Mexico's cartel wars, and likely too much of my personal time as well. Hence my curiosity.

[Misifus]

What your experience has been in your travels in MX...

I spend all of my work hours focused upon Mexico's cartel wars, and likely too much of my personal time as well. Hence my curiosity.

What specifically are you asking me? I don't quite get the gist of your message. Are you asking me if I am a LEO? The answer is no.

[AnalyticType]

What specifically are you asking me? I don't quite get the gist of your message. Are you asking me if I am a LEO? The answer is no.

My apologies for being less than clear. Judging from your included map in your post earlier this week, you travelled through the Los Zetas territory which they've been using as a supply depot for several years -- and which the GOM has raided several times over the past six months, resulting in substantial losses for Los Zetas. So, I'm curious about the conditions you saw/experienced, on the ground, while traveling through the region. MX Mil patrols, roadblocks of any flavor, hostility toward gringos, etc. -- these are things I'm wondering about. I know well what's been happening across Mexico for the most part, but Coahuila state has been quietly utilized by Los Z (quiet predominantly because neither Sinaloa nor CDG have been trying to take control of that state, with the exceptions of the cities of Saltillo and Torreon). Hence my curiosity about what you've perceived in your perambulations about the region.

Thanks!

AT

[Misifus]

My apologies for being less than clear. Judging from your included map in your post earlier this week, you travelled through the Los Zetas territory which they've been using as a supply depot for several years -- and which the GOM has raided several times over the past six months, resulting in substantial losses for Los Zetas. So, I'm curious about the conditions you saw/experienced, on the ground, while traveling through the region. MX Mil patrols, roadblocks of any flavor, hostility toward gringos, etc. -- these are things I'm wondering about. I know well what's been happening across Mexico for the most part, but Coahuila state has been quietly utilized by Los Z (quiet predominantly because neither Sinaloa nor CDG have been trying to take control of that state, with the exceptions of the cities of Saltillo and Torreon). Hence my curiosity about what you've perceived in your perambulations about the region.

Thanks!

AT

I'm not sure Coahuila should be considered the exclusive territory of Los Zetas. Seems to me I hear more about Chapo Guzman than the others when in Coahuila, but I just listen, I don't ask questions. Now Tamaulipas is a different story, but I have never had trouble there either.

My travels through Mexico have been fine. I've yet to have any questionable incidents or encounters. At the army checkpoints I have not had any problems either. Usually it's just a young soldier who is curious about the motorcycle. I have never been searched, nor have the bags on my motorcycle. I have struck up conversations with some of the NCOs at these checkpoints. They have always been friendly. As for the police, no problems. Police have never pulled me over for a shake-down. However, I have flagged them down before for directions they have always been friendly and cooperative.

Saltillo is quiet. There's an old aristocracy that runs the city and quite frankly most of Coahuila. They are a tough "still-on-horseback" type of aristocracy in the old Latin American style. They have not gone soft due to modernity where they will quiver to criminals (like we do). This means they will not put up with standard cartel nonsense. This is why Saltillo is quiet. This does not mean however that they would care if cartel shipment activities happen in their area. After all, those drugs are just being sold to Gringos.

Torreon is another matter, different type of history. There the bullets fly freely.

[SWJ Blog]

Open Veins of Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/open-veins-of-mexico)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AnalyticType]

Misifus, the insight on the aristocracy's presence in Saltillo was very helpful! Thanks! Do you perceive that at some point the old family power structure will move to quell the spikes of violence that are cropping up in the city? March 5 & 22, May 18 & 29, Nov 1... March and May events appear to have been "heat up the plaza" ops by CDG, and the Nov 1 series of running gun battles in the east & NE sections of the city may have begun as CDG on Z, but ended up with LE and mil involvement as well. What do you perceive the aristocracy might do if they decide they've had enough...and what do you think that trigger would involve?

I've been up to my eyeballs with the latest quarterly update on the cartels, and now a client report, so I haven't been on SWC as much as I'd like. Ping me if you haven't seen the quarterly update that published 25 Oct, and I'll shoot a copy to you.

AT

[Bill Moore]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15702285


Mr Blake, 45, was appointed interior secretary in July last year, overseeing police forces fighting drug cartels.

"Unfortunately the interior secretary, his [assistants] and the helicopter crew were found dead," government spokeswoman Alejandra Sota said.

The interior secretary is Mexico's senior cabinet position and the top official after the president, with responsibility for domestic affairs and security.

[Misifus]

Misifus, the insight on the aristocracy's presence in Saltillo was very helpful! Thanks!...Ping me...

Ping sent.

[AnalyticType]

and replied.

I'll be very interested in your feedback.

AT

[AnalyticType]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15702285

Weather clear, temps in low 70s, winds under 10kt.

Smells like foul play...

[Misifus]

I'll discuss this here and not at SWJ. http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-strategic-note-no-8

This is a pretty brash thesis put forward by the author and by the secondary sources that he cites. The thesis appears to be the title, 230,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Mexico and ‘Narco-Refugee’ Potentials for the United States.

As is the trend these days, Google-ology appears to be the main source for the article as opposed to boots-on-the-ground observation. I would like the author to post his own actual experiences and observations that back up his thesis statement. Same for the authors of the secondary sources. Boots on the ground is what is needed to lend credibility to claims like...


...there were up to 116,000 empty homes in Juárez...
...with the implication that these are the abandoned homes of narco-refugees who have fled. I just don't buy that. I'd like to see how that survey was done and just what kind of houses these are, considering that Juarez has thousands of shacks inhabited by squatters that ring the city and that run along the border. These shacks have gone empty and full since the Mexican-American war.


In Ciudad Mier...400 people fled to the nearby town of Ciudad Miguel Alemán. The article is at least a year out of date, or the author intentionally leaves out the latest on Mier. The town has since been repopulated and there is now a military presence. Hinting that sovereign territory has been ceded is irresponsible journalism. See the link for the latest. Or ride down there with me on my next ride into Mexico. http://www.terra.mx/noticias/articulo/1197797/Se+repuebla+Ciudad+Mier+Tamaulipas+por+presencia+m ilitar.htm (http://www.terra.mx/noticias/articulo/1197797/Se+repuebla+Ciudad+Mier+Tamaulipas+por+presencia+m ilitar.htm) Nevertheless, the residents stayed in the area. They did not become narco-refugees headed to the US. Anybody who has studied the history of the border below the Nueces Strip would not be surprised by the Cd. Mier incident. The place has been a smuggler's haven since Texas became Texas. Fidel Castro even picked up his weapons there before he set sail back to Cuba from Veracruz on the Granma.

I believe it is irresponsible to raise a false alarm that narco-refugees are in flight to the U.S. The illegal immigration into the U.S. is driven by other factors. There are however, political elements out there that would like to categorize some of this immigration as some type of war displacement issue. Hey! Let's get the UN involved :rolleyes:

[Bill Moore]

I believe it is irresponsible to raise a false alarm that narco-refugees are in flight to the U.S.

You definitely read it differently than I did, he specifically wrote there is an increasing risk of narco-refugees. He didn't conflate it with the normal illegal immigration that has been happening for decades and will continue to happen for decades despite the cyclic tough talk during our elections on illegal immigration. There is a big difference between illegal immigrants and the potential of political refugees forced from their homes due to violence. It is our normal approach to wait until a crisis happens and then react instead of using intelligence to predict and consider less expensive and possibly more effective preventative measures.


The town has since been repopulated and there is now a military presence. Hinting that sovereign territory has been ceded is irresponsible journalism.

Maybe that is the case in this particular town, and probably much like Iraq where we exerted and then ceded control of some towns several times (fallujah is the one most known in the media, but there were many others) if control is transitory then it isn't sovereignty. Soldiers walking the streets doesn't equate to control or sovereignty if the cartels control the police and local politicians. We walked through a lot of towns that the insurgents in fact controlled. We all should understand by now that soldiers walking the street is a security operation, and sometimes a needed phase in re-exerting authority, but by itself it means little. You can also argue the fact that soliders are walking the streets is obviously a bad sign, a sign that sovereignty is contested.


As is the trend these days, Google-ology appears to be the main source for the article as opposed to boots-on-the-ground observation. I would like the author to post his own actual experiences and observations that back up his thesis statement. Same for the authors of the secondary sources.

While I see your point, I also think your view can be misleading and I can list several examples (starting with Vietnam) where the boots on the ground assessment is less accurate than a multi-sourced academic study. Potential counterpoints, I conducted a security assessment a few years back in Nigeria and interfaced with folks in the oil industry who lived there (didn't just drive through once and awhile). Prior to launching I did my homework on the issues, then met with experts in the Embassy and host nation, and finally went out on the ground. I received some rather cheery observations from the oil executives, observations that were not in line with the locals or the academic studies. Over time the academic studies and people got it right, the Americans who lived there got it wrong. They were too isolated from reality, because you can't see social and political reality by just looking out your window or talking to like minded people. I recall reading the assessments (historical studies) from the Embassy prior to the Shah falling and they missed it, and they lived there. I would be interested to see if our oil industry executives did any better in predicting the impending revolution?

Iraq and Afghanistan are other examples where guys on the ground, myself included, got it wrong based on observations without the required historical and academic context. We thought we were making progress because we were looking at the wrong things through the wrong lens. Again I take your point, and you are also offering some historical context which is more helpful than just saying I simply drove through, but I think there is room to consider both academic research and listen to eye witness accounts, and more importantly in this case is to hear from the average citizens who live there.

[Misifus]

You definitely read it differently than I did, he specifically wrote there is an increasing risk of narco-refugees. I do read it differently. I believe his thesis is to raise an alarm of narco-refugee influx into the U.S.


There is a big difference between illegal immigrants and the potential of political refugees forced from their homes due to violence. Of course there is. However, once the excuse is provided that they are coming here as war refugees then we will really get a flood of them. As you know, once they are here, then it is difficult to get them out.


It is our normal approach to wait until a crisis happens and then react instead of using intelligence to predict and consider less expensive and possibly more effective preventative measures. You are correct. We also follow bad intelligence a lot. This article is an example of bad intelligence.


Maybe that is the case in this particular town [Mier], and probably much like Iraq where we exerted and then ceded control of some towns several times (fallujah is the one most known in the media, but there were many others) if control is transitory then it isn't sovereignty...

Mier is the main incident given to support the article's thesis. For this type of expository prose IT IS THIS TOWN that matters since that is the town supporting the thesis. If he's got another town that supports his thesis, I am all ears. The article should not have been released, the article is wrong. In any case there is no comparison between the situations of Iraq and Mexico other than people are getting killed. Nobody was fleeing Fallujah before the Americans arrived. Iraq involves an insurgency against a foreign invader. The narco wars are a completely different situation. When L.A. erupted in riots for several days, nobody claimed that "sovereignty" was lost or that territory was ceded.


While I see your point, I also think your view can be misleading and I can list several examples (starting with Vietnam) where the boots on the ground assessment is less accurate than a multi-sourced academic study. Um? Okay. Are you sure you want to start with Vietnam since it was an abysmal failure?


Potential counterpoints, I conducted a security assessment a few years back in Nigeria and interfaced with folks in the oil industry who lived there (didn't just drive through once and awhile). Prior to launching I did my homework on the issues, then met with experts in the Embassy and host nation, and finally went out on the ground. I received some rather cheery observations from the oil executives, observations that were not in line with the locals or the academic studies.Observer effect. By looking at an electron, you alter what the electron would normally do if you weren't looking at it.

It also depends on what you were asking the oil executives. They can tell you a lot that's right in those areas of their expertise and within their enclosed world, but they cannot tell you what's right outside of those confines unless they have a supplementary experience base. So if an oil executive tells you that the way to destroy an oilfield for the long term is to blow up wellheads below the 'B' section, then the military should believe that instead of believing that the way to destroy an oil field is via destruction of oil handling facilities. I guess the second time around for OIF we listened. Or maybe just the SBS listened?


Over time the academic studies and people got it right, the Americans who lived there got it wrong... Academic studies? There are a million of them. For each one that guesses it right, there are five that will guess wrong. I agree with you that many of the Americans are isolated overseas, in fact I have already said that in other threads, and recently if you do a search.


I recall reading the assessments (historical studies) from the Embassy prior to the Shah falling and they missed it, and they lived there. I would be interested to see if our oil industry executives did any better in predicting the impending revolution?What American oil companies were operating in Iran when the Shah fell? None. Oil had been nationalized decades earlier. Iran was a British playground when it came to oil. US oil companies were minor players there. If I recall we were limited by The Red Line Agreement (or similar).


Iraq and Afghanistan are other examples where guys on the ground, myself included, got it wrong based on observations without the required historical and academic context. We thought we were making progress because we were looking at the wrong things through the wrong lens. That's right the wrong lens. See comment above on observer effect.


Again I take your point, and you are also offering some historical context which is more helpful than just saying I simply drove through, but I think there is room to consider both academic research and listen to eye witness accounts, and more importantly in this case is to hear from the average citizens who live there. I agree with the above. But look, this article wasn't even academic research. It was Google-ology. The historical content should be put in there by the authors, not injected by me. If by "drove through" you mean me specifically, I "ride through" :) If you mean this metaphorically, then yes one needs to study the area and not just do a flyover. Part of studying the area also means boots on the ground in addition to academic type research. I love comfy leather chairs and wood-paneled libraries too, but to do a good job with any research of this nature, one has to do the requisite field work. I can tell you know that already, not sure the author of the article revealed enough to let us know whether he knows that or not.

I did read your comments at SWJ, and agree with the comments you posted there. I am glad you replied here.

[Bill Moore]

Um? Okay. Are you sure you want to start with Vietnam since it was an abysmal failure?

In this case, that is what I meant, but there were those on the ground throughout the years that kept saying we were winning, and that we had the right strategy. Some analysts back in the States who were looking at all the data dispassionately came to different conclusions.


What American oil companies were operating in Iran when the Shah fell? None. Oil had been nationalized decades earlier. Iran was a British playground when it came to oil. US oil companies were minor players there.

I think they nationalized in the 50's, but I "thought" some of our oil services companies still worked there? If not, other U.S. businesses had people in Iran, and it would be interesting to me to see if they read the tea leaves more accurately than the Embassy. I recall Ross Perot hiring retired Col Bull Simons to rescue some of his employees after the Shah fell.

In sum, I don't disagree with any of your comments, just pointing out the obvious and that is truth is often elusive.

[Ken White]

What American oil companies were operating in Iran when the Shah fell? None. Oil had been nationalized decades earlier. Iran was a British playground when it came to oil. US oil companies were minor players there. If I recall we were limited by The Red Line Agreement (or similar).Nope. Exxon had major 'consultancy' contracts to NIOC and were also part of the Consortium set up back in the late 40s when NIOC was formed. IIRC, Then Esso, then CalSO /Chevron, Gulf and one or two other US companies (Texaco?) held 40% of the Consortium Shares. BP and Shell had the rest and the Consortium effectively operated the fields, pipeline and refineries for NIOC with its Iranian employees. The Consortium did most of the exploration and they did NOT open their books to the Iranians though in theory they shared profits 50:50 with NIOC. :wry:

The Shah also cut a side deal with the Italians in the 60s, I think, hacking off the majors...

Through the '60s and '70s their were beaucoup US Oil people in Iran, spread from the Caspian down to Abadan. Those in Tehran lived quite well indeed. Those in Ahwaz, Khoramshahr and Abadan only slightly less well. The '79 departure of the Shah ended that... :eek:

FWIW, every Expat in Tehran and the hinterlands knew from mid '77 forward that a 'revolution' of some sort was going to occur -- a lot of people were told by folks in Armish MAAG, Genmish, the oil folks, some DoS guys at the Embassy and others including Bell Helicopters and Grumman who also had a slew of people in country at the time, though the CIA seemed to remain unaware. Regardless, no one in DC wanted to hear it -- or, more correctly, they suppressed the information and tacitly encouraged the Mullahs (until the "oops" moment...). :rolleyes:

US Foreign Policy is so completely driven by domestic politics that news of problems abroad are suppressed in order to preserve the then Administrations inside the Beltway political clout -- only a really, really major trauma is allowed to intrude. We generally have adequate Intel; policy makers just ignore or even suppress it to do what they want. :mad:

[Misifus]

Nope. Exxon had major 'consultancy' contracts to NIOC and were also part of the Consortium set up back in the late 40s when NIOC was formed. IIRC, Then Esso, then CalSO /Chevron, Gulf and one or two other US companies (Texaco?) held 40% of the Consortium Shares. BP and Shell had the rest and the Consortium effectively operated the fields, pipeline and refineries for NIOC with its Iranian employees. The Consortium did most of the exploration and they did NOT open their books to the Iranians though in theory they shared profits 50:50 with NIOC.

Nope. That's still minor play for Americans. In this business he who is the 'operator' is the one who rules. There were no American company operators in Iran. Like I said upthread, it was a British playground and you appear to agree with that citing Shell and BP. The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company is the genesis there and hence the majority of the game there was British run, not American. This is what I said upthread before you posted.


The Shah also cut a side deal with the Italians in the 60s, I think, hacking off the majors...The reference was made to Americans, not Italians. Lots of other expats there also. However, again the reference was made to American oil company executives.


Through the '60s and '70s their were beaucoup US Oil people in Iran, spread from the Caspian down to Abadan...Give me a count of people and from which American oil companies, not oilfield service companies. BTW, Exxon maintained (and still may) a consulting presence with Aramco as do a few other American oil companies. However, they have absolutely no executive function there at all. The norm for the expat in Aramco is that you provide a technical service. There is no executive function whatsoever for expats. That function is reserved for host nation personnel only. This is similar to the consulting arrangement you cited with respect to Exxon and Iran in the 70's. By the way, we have gotten smarter. There is now a US intelligence presence within Aramco due to the threat of terrorism (like the Khobar towers incident), so somebody is perhaps learning from past mistakes.


FWIW, every Expat in Tehran and the hinterlands knew from mid '77 forward that a 'revolution' of some sort was going to occur -- Lol! By '77 everybody walking the streets of Los Angeles, California knew that a revolution of some sorts was going to occur. That's pretty late in the game. Ya think? However, you are echoing my point. The point I have made in other threads is that often international businesses will have the correct intelligence on matters while the so called intelligence agencies seem to sleep or ignore what is obvious. I am not sure how the filtering system works in what is considered legitimate intelligence or not. Whatever the system, we don't appear to be good at it.


We generally have adequate Intel; policy makers just ignore or even suppress it to do what they want.:Well I guess that is a believable answer, but we don't know that for sure since we aren't in the room with the Masters of the Universe when the filtering is done.

Not to threadjack my own thread...but we had hordes here in the US wanting the Shah out and Khomeini in. In fact political elements here in the US were fellating Khomeini in his Parisian lair. Just like we had hordes here praising the wonderful things that Robert Mugabe would do for Rhodesia. Same with Castro, same with Ortega, same with Chavez, etc.

Thanks for stopping by Ken. Do you care to talk about Mexico? ;)

[Bob's World]

I don't think Ken dragged this thread into Iran, but since it was there (and he was in Iran) he offered a few points of clarification. Before we go back to Mexico, I do think it is important to note that Iran is as geo-strategically and vital interest-based importance to the US in the Middle East as Mexico is in North America. We should be equally interested in facilitating the stability of both.

In both, however, we ignore root causes and effective policies and approaches because, as noted earlier in this thread, domestic policies trump how we deal with foreign policy issues.

Powerful lobbies representing Israel, Saudi Arabia and big oil status quo keep the US from acting logically toward healing our breach with Iran. That is tragic as it stands now, and could become more tragic as so many of the Chicken Hawk communities push for Iran to be the next victim of playing "the bad guy" for our Cold War based foreign policy system that demands an enemy to really work effectively. (How about we develop a new policy for the world we live in today? God save us from "the good Cold Warriors.")

Similarly in Mexico, at least 80% of the bad things going on there today from our perspective can be treated more effectively with changes of US policy and laws regarding illegal drugs, immigration, etc than any amount of civil or military intervention in Mexico to treat the symptoms. Our leaders know this, but they lack the moral courage to do what needs to be done.

Mexico indeed needs our help. They need us to update aspects of ourself that are creating the higher order effects that threaten to destroy their nation. Will we throw Mexico under the bus in order to cling to clearly failed policies, such as the 40 year old "war on drugs"? Probably.

[Misifus]

Well Bob, that's a really nice entry to the thread. However, what do you think about the thesis of the author's paper? Valid or not?

Do you think narco-refugeeism is a valid concept or not? And if so, why? And what evidence would you offer to support that thesis other than the lame example he gives of Mier?

[Ken White]

Nope. That's still minor play for Americans. In this business he who is the 'operator' is the one who rules...This is what I said upthread before you posted.The reference was made to Americans, not Italians. Lots of other expats there also...

...However, again the reference was made to American oil company executives.True -- not to American oil companies and / or operations but to executives. They were there. Ussery from Exxon is one I recall.
Give me a count of people...There is no executive function whatsoever for expats.Whether or not they had an executive function over local production is immaterial, whether they were executives from an American oil company is material to the issue stated if not to the one you're trying to introduce. ;)
However, you are echoing my point.Well, yeah -- that's what I intended to do. In your rush to be confrotnational and show what an independent thinker you are you must've missed that.
Not to threadjack my own thread...but we had hordes here in the US wanting the Shah out and Khomeini in. In fact political elements here in the US were fellating Khomeini in his Parisian lair. Just like we had hordes here praising the wonderful things that Robert Mugabe would do for Rhodesia. Same with Castro, same with Ortega, same with Chavez, etc.Not hordes. Probably about 20% plus of those paying some attention in all cases. FWIW, the MAAG was reporting problems and the impending rise of the Mullahs by '70.
Thanks for stopping by Ken. Do you care to talk about Mexico? ;)Not stopping by, was here before you arrived and will probably be here after you're gone. As was true for a lot of snide young LTs with delusions of grandeur -- and more than a few old Colonels as well. Many of whom wasted time and effort telling me I didn't understand the issue... ;)

Nope, only been as far as Tijuana on two occasions. I tend not to talk too much about places I have little knowledge of... :D

[Bill Moore]

While there may be minor disagreements on the number of oil men in Iran, the actual point was there were U.S. business living in Iran in the late 70s and some of them were oil men. They all had business interests, so they were very much interested in the future of Iran and how it would impact their business. Ken and Misifus addressed my question about their awareness of the pending revolution, and it appears the general concensus was they knew, while the Embassy was "apparently" caught flat footed. U.S. government group think, and as Ken correctly stated,


US Foreign Policy is so completely driven by domestic politics that news of problems abroad are suppressed in order to preserve the then Administrations inside the Beltway political clout -- only a really, really major trauma is allowed to intrude. We generally have adequate Intel; policy makers just ignore or even suppress it to do what they want.

Taking this back to Mexico where we need to be on this thread, I agree with Bob's point:


Similarly in Mexico, at least 80% of the bad things going on there today from our perspective can be treated more effectively with changes of US policy and laws regarding illegal drugs, immigration, etc than any amount of civil or military intervention in Mexico to treat the symptoms. Our leaders know this, but they lack the moral courage to do what needs to be done.

Mexico indeed needs our help. They need us to update aspects of ourself that are creating the higher order effects that threaten to destroy their nation. Will we throw Mexico under the bus in order to cling to clearly failed policies, such as the 40 year old "war on drugs"? Probably.

This ties right back into Ken's point about suppressing the intelligence (or cherry picking what we want) to support our political agenda. The War on Drugs is excessively politicized, and anyone that challenges it gets the knee jerk response from the hawks that you're weak on drugs. Same argument the Bush administration used to challenge anyone who questioned the way we were/are waging the war on terror, you're weak on terrorism. Fear sells, fear is good politics, but it sure makes for bad policy making.

[Misifus]

...Whether or not they had an executive function over local production is immaterial, whether they were executives from an American oil company is material to the issue stated if not to the one you're trying to introduce. ;) Still not relevant Ken. I happened to have been an employee of Exxon and also know how the business works in foreign countries, several of them where I have actually worked. That doesn't make me an expert, but it does make me somewhat knowledgeable on the subject.


Well, yeah -- that's what I intended to do. In your rush to be confrontational and show what an independent thinker you are you must've missed that. Hmm. Actually you appear to have entered the thread in confrontational mode, and now you apparently wish to escalate it. And you are a mod? I was surprised to see your confrontation with JMA as well. Now you want another confrontation. Let me ask you this, do y'all plan attack strategies on your moderator board when there are opinions and/or facts stated that don't agree with y'all's consensus? Is there Group Think going on over there? I already have been told that there is a sub-group of about five members that engages in such. Is posting here a team sport?


Not hordes. Probably about 20% plus of those paying some attention in all cases. I think that is a horde. But the more likely number is everybody that was a Liberal at the time, so I would guess 50%.


FWIW, the MAAG was reporting problems and the impending rise of the Mullahs by '70.Did you just say MAAG? :eek: According to Stan, and I know you were following the thread, we aren't supposed to use MAAG anymore. Stan where are you? Besides, Ken, I was commenting on your '77, now you introduce '70. Holding back on us?


Not stopping by, was here before you arrived and will probably be here after you're gone. You definitely were here before I arrived. You will definitely be here after I leave. I guess you feel you can walk tall over such a trivial accomplishment.


As was true for a lot of snide young LTs with delusions of grandeur -- and more than a few old Colonels as well. Many of whom wasted time and effort telling me I didn't understand the issue... You are my hero!


Nope, only been as far as Tijuana on two occasions. I tend not to talk too much about places I have little knowledge of... :D Well then thanks for the drive-by shooting.

[Bill Moore]

We still have JUSMAGs, we used to have JUSMAAGs. We have JUSMAGs in Thailand, Philippines and I believe we still have one in Korea. Where we have a smaller presence the security assistance office is often called the office of defense cooperation (ODC).

Would appreciate it if you both could get back on topic and away from the chest bumping.

[Misifus]

...Would appreciate it if you both could get back on topic and away from the chest bumping.

LMAO! Yeah, I have been trying to keep folks on topic, considering I initiated the thread.

Yet you wanna chest bang over on the Peak Oil thread? :p

(it's getting weird here)

[Bill Moore]

Yet you wanna chest bang over on the Peak Oil thread?

Agreed, it must be that time of the year when everyone is over sensitive. :D::o

[Misifus]

In this case, that is what I meant, but there were those on the ground throughout the years that kept saying we were winning, and that we had the right strategy. That's because we were actually winning on the ground. We constrained ourselves politically and strategically. I'd like to not go down that road on this thread. Please, not another Vietnam War debate.


I think they nationalized in the 50's, but I "thought" some of our oil services companies still worked there? If not, other U.S. businesses had people in Iran, and it would be interesting to me to see if they read the tea leaves more accurately than the Embassy...

...While there may be minor disagreements on the number of oil men in Iran, the actual point was there were U.S. business living in Iran in the late 70s and some of them were oil men. They all had business interests, so they were very much interested in the future of Iran and how it would impact their business. Ken and Misifus addressed my question about their awareness of the pending revolution, and it appears the general consensus was they knew, while the Embassy was "apparently" caught flat footed...

And as I stated before in one of the Africa threads, generally businesses will get a better read on things as it relates to their sectors than will our military via MAAG-type missions or our intelligence agencies in the host nation. My point of distinction regarding Ken's comment is that an operating oil company is in a different boat than an oilfield service company, or an oil company that has a technical assistance program going on with the host nation.


Taking this back to Mexico where we need to be on this thread, I agree with Bob's point:

This ties right back into Ken's point about suppressing the intelligence (or cherry picking what we want) to support our political agenda. The War on Drugs is excessively politicized, and anyone that challenges it gets the knee jerk response from the hawks that you're weak on drugs. Same argument the Bush administration used to challenge anyone who questioned the way we were/are waging the war on terror, you're weak on terrorism. Fear sells, fear is good politics, but it sure makes for bad policy making.

No, that's not my point for initiating this thread. My point is that the article is just plain wrong in its conclusion about displaced persons becoming narco-refugees into the U.S. It is an alarmist article. Nobody has agreed or disagreed with me on that yet. Instead, everybody's ADD is kicking in.

[Ken White]

Still not relevant Ken.We can differ, You're knowledgeable on the industry, I'm knowledgeable on the level of US expats in Iran in the late 60s and early 70s.
Hmm. Actually you appear to have entered the thread in confrontational mode, and now you apparently wish to escalate it.Not so, I entered it to share some knowledge on an essentially off thread issue, no more -- and in so doing, I agreed with your premise...
And you are a mod? I was surprised to see your confrontation with JMA as well. Now you want another confrontation. Let me ask you this, do y'all plan attack strategies on your moderator board when there are opinions and/or facts stated that don't agree with y'all's consensus? Is there Group Think going on over there? I already have been told that there is a sub-group of about five members that engages in such. Is posting here a team sport?Yes. No, wrong I do not; IMO on this sub issue, you are the seeker of confrontation for whatever reason. No. Your statement isn't correct, IIRC, I recall you were told that another poster had asked several people what they thought. No -- unless someone decides to flick off everyone in view...
I think that is a horde. But the more likely number is everybody that was a Liberal at the time, so I would guess 50%.We can disagree on that as well though I acknowledge I was sorta middle aged at the time -- the college crowd did feel that way, most of us did not as I recall.
Did you just say MAAG? :eek: According to Stan, and I know you were following the thread, we aren't supposed to use MAAG anymore. Stan where are you? Stan's smart enough to realize that in talking about the 60s and 70s there were still plenty of MAAGs about. Now there are very few.
Besides, Ken, I was commenting on your '77, now you introduce '70. Holding back on us?Not at all. I introduced '77 because several people there at the time told me how things went and that was the time it did indeed get rolling so many, worldwide, were aware -- yet the idiots in DC were in denial. I later and separately introduced '70 -- again agreeing with you -- to point out that the threads were and are picked up by those who are supposed to spot them long before they hit public awareness or even official acknowledgement.
Well then thanks for the drive-by shooting.No drive by. I'm still here, still agree with your premise that many are aware before the official community knows or announces -- and wonder why you object to that agreement?

[Misifus]

Ken,

Re-read the thread in a day or two. Our conversation was actually fine. Simply a discussion of what is and what is not an "oil company" and/or an oil company "executive."

Things went south when the direction of the discussion started invoking the word you followed by a disparaging descriptor. Specifically, you initiated hostility with the following:


In your rush to be confrontational and show what an independent thinker you are you must've missed that.


Not stopping by, was here before you arrived and will probably be here after you're gone. As was true for a lot of snide young LTs with delusions of grandeur -- and more than a few old Colonels as well. Many of whom wasted time and effort telling me I didn't understand the issue...

It appears you simply got irritated at being debated with, hence you resorted to personalization.

In fact looking at other threads where there has been hostility. Generally one will find that the hostile action begins when one invokes the word you followed by a disparaging descriptor. I don't initiate Ken, I only retaliate.

In any case, I consider the subject closed.

[Ken White]

FWIW, I do not object to disagreement but I do tend to bridle at what I perceive as condescension. I stated my opinion of a generic posting style and of an equally generic attitude that often appear to contain that, to me, unnecessary detractor from discussion.

I acknowledge that use of the word 'you' without the qualifier that's it's a generic "you" -- or even better, writing 'one' instead -- is provocative. My error. I apologize for the personalization.

[Ken White]

Would appreciate it if you both could get back on topic and away from the chest bumping.As the Actress said to the Bishop...

Nor do I know enough about Mexico to enter this thread... ;)

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Misifus,


Mier is the main incident given to support the article's thesis. For this type of expository prose IT IS THIS TOWN that matters since that is the town supporting the thesis. If he's got another town that supports his thesis, I am all ears. The article should not have been released, the article is wrong.

Bringing the thread back to the article originally posted, and Misifus's challenge to the author's research. The articles below actually support the article's claim, and as expected most Phd's know how to do research and wouldn't sacrifice their credibility by posted an article/study that wasn't supportable (doesn't mean right, but at least they back up their arguments).

http://www.mcallen-news.com/tag/ciudad-mier/page/2/


SEDENA officials reported that five of the attacking gunmen were killed in the battle.

Authorities seized nine high-powered rifles, more than 11,000 rounds of ammunition and two vehicles that had been reported stolen.

Ciudad Mier is located in an area across the border from the Zapata and Starr County lines.

Dozens of people have been killed in Ciudad Mier and other communities that make up the "Frontera Chica" since February.

The region has been plagued by violence between former allies the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas, who are fighting for control of lucrative drug trafficking routes.

The Mexican Army and Navy have reported clashes with groups of armed men in the area as well.

The Mexican Army may be there, but based on this and other reports I think it an argument can be made that control has not been established.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/slideshows/news/slideshow/Ciudad-Mier-virtual-ghost-town-2299.php#photo-476547

Slide 13 states only half the population has returned.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/04/battle-for-ciudad-mier-chapter-9.html


Someday someone will tell of the heroic stories of so many brave nameless people that this war has produced in Tamaulipas, like this woman.

During that time, Ciudad Mier was not only a town without police: but it was also was a town with no schools, no banks, no stores, no doctors, and no pharmacies, because most of all services and businesses were closed for the most part of the nine months.

Truckloads of people with suitcases and bags fled the town of Cd Mier. The Archdiocese was also attempting to flee Ciudad Mier leaving the city without a priest, but, despite the order of his superiors, the local priest was the only one in Frontera Chica who refused to leave his temple during the fighting. The loneliness of Ciudad Mier was so much that the mayor only visited city hall twice a week, and the rest of the days he spent in Roma, Texas, or any other distant secure place.

[Misifus]

Bringing the thread back to the article originally posted, and Misifus's challenge to the author's research. The articles below actually support the article's claim, and as expected most Phd's know how to do research and wouldn't sacrifice their credibility by posted an article/study that wasn't supportable (doesn't mean right, but at least they back up their arguments)...

There is no justification for the author's claim, nor does the linkology you provided justify the author's thesis.

[SWJ Blog]

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/criminal-insurgencies-in-mexico-and-the-americas-0)

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

Book Review: Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/book-review-cartel-the-coming-invasion-of-mexico%E2%80%99s-drug-wars)

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[SWJ Blog]

Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as 'Terrorist Insurgency' (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/republicans-propose-bill-to-treat-mexican-drug-cartels-as-terrorist-insurgency)

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[Strickland]

What will it take, what kind of Black Swan event, for Hemispheric security to achieve equal status with the Middle East or Asia Pacific? For those whose immediate reaction is increased commerce, the last time I checked, our largest export/import partners included Canada and Mexico. Which institution is more to blame for the willful blindness currently afflicting us - DoD or the larger USG?

[bourbon]

Tinker Tailor Soldier Kingpin: How Sinaloa cartel boss 'El Chapo' Guzmán got U.S. agents to help him become Mexico’s most powerful drug lord (http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/29/el-chapo-guzm-n-mexico-s-most-powerful-drug-lord.html), by Aram Roston. Newsweek, 30 January 2012.

Most criminals who become informants do so because they’ve been arrested and squeezed, encouraged to betray their criminal employers in exchange for leniency. But this man had an unusual story to tell about his first encounter with U.S. federal agents. It was his boss, a top manager at the Sinaloa cartel, who encouraged him to help the Americans. Meet with the U.S. investigators, he was told. See how we can help them with information.

At the time, Guzmán’s huge Sinaloa organization was in the middle of a savage war, trying to crush the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes cartel, known as the VCF. And the Sinaloa cartel wanted to pass along information about its enemies to American agents.

The drug dealer told me how, acting with the full approval of his cartel, he strolled into the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office for an appointment with federal investigators. He walked through a metal detector and past the portrait of the American president on the wall, then into a room with a one-way mirror. The agents he met were very polite. He was surprised by what they had to say. “One of the ICE agents said they were here to help [the Sinaloa cartel]. And to f### the Vicente Carrillo cartel. Sorry for the language. That’s exactly what they said.”

So began another small chapter in one of the most secretive aspects of the drug war: an extensive operation by Chapo Guzmán’s forces to manipulate American law enforcement to their own benefit.
Is this a counterintelligence failure or just the nature of the ‘war on drugs’?

[tequila]

Mexico's Burgeoning Economy Amid Drug Violence (http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexicos-burgeoning-economy-amid-drug-violence/p27386)


There have been reports about Mexico's thriving economy amid continuing drug violence. Does this sort of ambivalence truly exist in Mexico right now?

It is true. Mexico is a place that's seen a huge escalation in violence. Under President Felipe Calderon over the last five years, we've seen almost 50,000 people killed in drug-related murders. But at the same time, Mexico's economy has actually been doing quite well since the end of the global recession. Mexico was the hardest hit in Latin America but it's recovered quite quickly, and in part it's been due to a huge boom in manufacturing along the border tied to U.S. companies and to U.S. consumers.

We've seen a boom in tourism. There have been record levels of tourists over the last year in Mexico--to its beaches, to its colonial cities, and to Mexico City. And we've also seen the benefit of high oil prices as Mexico still produces a good amount of oil and much of it for the United States ...


I wonder to what extent NAFTA has changed the Mexican economy and thus Mexico itself. Trade with the U.S. and Canada has skyrocketed - is it any wonder that this would include illegal drugs as well as car parts, with a corresponding increase in the sophistication and capabilities of Mexican organized crime?

[Bill Moore]

http://www.stanford.edu/group/progressive/cgi-bin/?p=521


By far, the people most hurt by a blow to the drug cartels would be the rural poor in certain areas of Mexico. According to Ms. Rios: “drug traffic cash flows are in fact helping some Mexican communities to somehow alleviate a grinding stage of poverty and underdevelopment. In fact, for almost all drug-producing communities, the drug traffic industry seems to be the only source of income.” This is partly due to the nature of drug cultivation, which, in many ways, is similar to farming. As of the late 1990′s, roughly 300,000 peasants were employed in drug production. The National Farm Workers’ Union (UNTA) estimates a number around 600,000. The importance of drugs in the area is nothing new. The earliest documented poppy production in the state of Sinaloa, called “the heart of Mexican drug country” by Newsweek, was in 1886. The extent of this dependence was illustrated in 1976, when a joint operation by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency and the Mexican government was organized. Called “Operacion Condor”, it involved helicopters that would spray (and ruin) poppy and marijuana fields. The operation caused such immediate economic destabilization in the region that the Mexican government indefinitely halted the project. This dependence on drug cultivation, especially on the labor-intensive process of processing poppy gum, still exists today.

Given the close ties between drug revenues and the economy, it is not entirely surprising to see some support for cartels in certain areas. Drug organizations have begun to provide psuedo-governments in certain towns, and sometimes win the support of locals by positive means. Of course, terror tactics, including a rising trend of beheadings, death threats, and atrocities, balance these. Still, a dependence on drug money establishes what some call an “artificial economy” that may simply disappear as the drug war goes on.

http://www.economywatch.com/in-the-news/even-mexicos-drug-cartels-are-affected-by-worst-drought-in-years.01-02.html

Global Warming impacts the Cartels :D




The number of illegal marijuana plantations in Northern Mexico has “declined considerably” over the last few months, told a Mexican army commander to the Associated Press on Tuesday, as a devastating drought continues to wreck havoc on the country’s water supply to both its population and cropland.


"We can see a lot less (marijuana plantations) than in other years," said General Pedro Gurrola, commander of armed forces in the state of Sinaloa. With water supply scarce, many marijuana crops have also dried up, added General Gurrola, whose forces conducts regular surveillance flights across the country to seek out any illicit drug plantations.

[AnalyticType]

makes absolutely no difference to the huge meth production ops run by Sinaloa primarily, but also by La Familia Michoacana, Los Caballeros Templarios, and Los Zetas. Huge labs in Sinaloa, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit, Michoacán, Guanajuato states, but now also popping up in Sonora.

And then there's the poppies...Mexico appears to have moved into second place behind Afghanistan for poppy cultivation and heroin production - and a number of the chem precursors and reagents used for meth synthesis also are used for heroin production.

And then there's the cocaine...

Whether due to interdiction, weather, eradication, or escalated conflict, we see large upswings in the high-value/low-volume narcotics whenever marijuana smuggling drops.

As for the economic impact, that's where geopolitical realities come firmly into play. Whether you're talking the Fox or Calderon administrations, or whomever follows next, the GOM is stuck between a rock and a US place. The Mexican drug trafficking trade (et al) brings in anywhere from 30-50 billion USD per year into the economy (a very hefty 20% or so), and the GOM has to strike a careful balance. The USG pressured (and continues to pressure) the GOM to kill the goose that's been pooping out golden eggs. But when Calderon started targeting cartel leadership he created power vacuums that destabilised what had been until about 2004 a thriving drug trade that only experienced localised turf wars on rather a small scale.

Now the violence, fracturing and fragmentation of the original family-centric organisations that sprang from the Guadalajara cartel has spiralled so far out of control - directly due to Calderon's initiatives (and I seriously doubt that anyone in the GOM in 2006 had any clue what they started) - the genie can't be shoved back into the bottle.

[tequila]

Texas Observer - The Deadliest Place in Mexico (https://www.texasobserver.org/cover-story/the-deadliest-place-in-mexico)


... For decades, this lucrative smuggling corridor, or “plaza,” was controlled by the Juarez cartel. In 2008, Mexico’s largest, most powerful syndicate—the Sinaloa cartel, run by Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman—declared war on the Juarez cartel and moved in to take over the territory. The federal government sent in the military to quell the violence. Instead the murder rate in the state of Chihuahua exploded. The bloodshed in the city of Juarezm made international news. It was dubbed the “deadliest city in the world.” So much blood was being shed in Juarez that few outside the region noticed the violence spilling into the rural valley to the east, where killings and atrocities began to occur on a daily basis. Police officers, political leaders and community activists were shot down in the streets. By 2009, the valley, with a population of 20,000, had a shocking murder rate of 1,600 per 100,000 inhabitants—six times higher than its neighboring “deadliest city in the world”—according to government estimates. In one particularly gruesome stretch in 2010, several valley residents were stabbed in the face with ice picks, and a local man aligned with the Juarez cartel was skewered with an iron bar, riddled with bullets, then roasted over an open fire. The Juarez newspapers began to call the rural farming region the “Valley of Death ...”



The story is focused on the Juarez Valley and how the massive violence in the region was brought by what has been theorized before - the Sinaloa Cartel's conquest of the smuggling corridor through the violent extermination of the Juarez Cartel, allied with the Mexican Army. The story posits a disturbing thesis - that the Sinaloa Cartel and the Mexican Army are working hand in glove.

[AnalyticType]

Texas Observer - The Deadliest Place in Mexico (https://www.texasobserver.org/cover-story/the-deadliest-place-in-mexico)

The story is focused on the Juarez Valley and how the massive violence in the region was brought by what has been theorized before - the Sinaloa Cartel's conquest of the smuggling corridor through the violent extermination of the Juarez Cartel, allied with the Mexican Army. The story posits a disturbing thesis - that the Sinaloa Cartel and the Mexican Army are working hand in glove.

The Sinaloa cartel has the Mexican army and the Federal Police heavily infiltrated in the western half of the country, and some would argue that Chapo owns the Federales. But in their areas of control in the eastern half of the country the same can be said of Los Zetas, regarding infiltration of and/or influence over the army. It's not clear to me to what extent Los Z has influence with the state police, but Z support networks have long involved municipal police.

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico's Challenges: Lessons in the War Against Organized Crime (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexicos-challenges-lessons-in-the-war-against-organized-crime)

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[SWJ Blog]

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part I) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/five-ps-for-a-violence-reduction-strategy-in-mexico-part-i)

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[SWJ Blog]

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part II) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/five-ps-for-a-violence-reduction-strategy-in-mexico-part-ii)

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[SWJ Blog]

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part III) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/five-ps-for-a-violence-reduction-strategy-in-mexico-part-iii)

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[AdamG]

Gunmen in western Mexico have killed 12 policemen investigating the beheadings of 10 people. The officers were attacked as they searched for bodies after severed heads were found near the town of Teloloapan in Guerrero state on Sunday. Messages threatening the La Familia drug cartel were found with the heads.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17439509

[jmm99]

From DoJ (Press Release), Two With Alleged Ties to Military and Others Charged in Murder-for-Hire Plot/Drug Conspiracy (http://www.justice.gov/usao/txs/1News/Releases/2012%20March/120326%20Corley%20et%20al.html) (March 26, 2012):


LAREDO, Texas – Several men have been arrested and charged in a conspiracy related to drug trafficking and/or an attempted murder-for-hire plot, United States Attorney Kenneth Magidson announced today. Kevin Corley (Corley), 29, Samuel Walker, 28, both of Colorado Springs, Colo., and Shavar Davis, 29, of Denver, Colo., were taken into custody Saturday afternoon in Laredo, Texas, while Marcus Mickle, 20, and Calvin Epps, 26, both of Hopkins, S.C., were arrested in South Carolina. A sixth man, Mario Corley, 40, of Saginaw, Texas, was also taken into custody in relation to this case in Charleston, S.C.

The criminal complaint charging Corley, Walker and Davis was filed just a short time ago in Laredo federal court, at which time they made their initial appearances before U.S. Magistrate Judge Diana Song Quiroga. Mickle and Epps, charged in a now unsealed indictment, are expected to make their initial appearances in Columbia, S.C., this afternoon.
...
On Jan. 7, 2012, Corley traveled to Laredo and met with undercover agents at which time the agents inquired about his ability to perform "wet work," allegedly understood to mean murder-for-hire, specifically, whether he could provide a team to raid a ranch were 20 kilograms of stolen cocaine were being kept by rival cartel members. Corley confirmed he would conduct the contract killing with a small team, at a minimum comprised of himself and another person who he described as an active duty soldier with whom he had already consulted. According to the complaint, Corley ultimately agreed to $50,000 and five kilograms of cocaine to perform the contract killing and retrieve the 20 kilograms of cocaine and offered to refund the money if the victim survived.
...
On March 5, 2012, Corley delivered two AR-15 assault rifles with scopes, an airsoft assault rifle, five allegedly stolen ballistic vests and other miscellaneous equipment to an undercover agent in Colorado Springs, Colo., in exchange for $10,000. At the meeting, Corley and the undercover agent allegedly again discussed the contract killing and the retrieval of the cocaine which was to occur on March 24, 2012. Corley allegedly stated he had purchased a new Ka-Bar knife to carve a “Z” into the victim’s chest and was planning on buying a hatchet to dismember the body.

On March 24, 2012, Corley, Walker and Davis traveled to Laredo and met with undercover agents, at which time they discussed the location of the intended victim, the logistics of performing the contract kill and their respective roles. The three were arrested, during which time a fourth suspect was shot and killed. A subsequent search of the vehicle in which Corley and the other co-conspirators arrived revealed two semi-automatic rifles with scopes, one bolt-action rifle with a scope and bipod, one hatchet, one Ka-Bar knife, one bag of .223 caliber ammunition and one box of .300 caliber ammunition. ... (more) ...

Criminal Complaint (http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2012/03/laredo_complaint2.pdf) (26 Mar 2012).

Regards

Mike

[AdamG]

When your Small War turns into a Lovecraftian plotline.


Authorities in the northern Mexican state of Sonora have arrested eight people accused of killing two boys and one woman as human sacrifices for Santa Muerte -- the saint of death -- officials said Friday.

The victims, two of whom were age 10, were killed and their blood was offered at an altar to the saint, according to Jose Larrinaga, spokesman for state prosecutors. The accused were asking the saint, who is generally portrayed as a skeleton dressed in a long robe and carrying a scythe, for protection, he said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/30/world/americas/mexico-human-sacrifice/index.html?iref=obnetwork

[Bill Moore]

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/04/07/zetas-and-ms-13-join-forces-in-guatemala/


In recent months, authorities say, they have begun to see the first signs that the Zetas are providing paramilitary training and equipment to the Maras in exchange for intelligence and crimes meant to divert law-enforcement resources and attention.

Here is a match made in hell, and it is sounding too much like the terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, Somalia, and other locations where those with similiar purposes converge, network, train, and coordinate future operations.


"As a result of this union with the Zetas, the Mara Salvatrucha have more ability to organize, strategize and maneuver," Velasco said. "The Mara Salvatrucha want to build up their inventory of long-range weapons, grenades and drugs for their own use and for sale ... they know the economic benefit is great for them and that the Zetas, as an outside group, need the Maras' network in order to grow inside Guatemala."

[SWJ Blog]

The Case of Mexico: A Hard Pill to Swallow (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-case-of-mexico-a-hard-pill-to-swallow)

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[AdamG]

(CNN) -- A group of masked gunmen stormed a popular bar in the Mexican city of Chihuahua late Friday, killing 15 people, including two journalists, state prosecutors said Saturday.

At least 10 suspects entered the Colorado Bar wearing what looked like police uniforms and opened fire on the crowd inside the bar, according to Carlos Gonzalez, a spokesman for the Chihuahua state attorney general's office. Eleven people died at the scene, and the other four died en route to the hospital.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/04/21/world/americas/mexico-bar-killings/

[AdamG]

No, this is not a re-post. More like a "quid pro quo, Clarice" sorta thing.


Police found the dismembered, decapitated bodies of 15 people in two abandoned vehicles in western Mexico Wednesday in an apparent revenge killing between powerful drug gangs.

Police initially counted 12 bodies dumped in the car on a road between Mexico's second city of Guadalajara and the lakeside city of Chapala, known for its North American expatriate community.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/fifteen-decapitated-apparent-mexico-revenge-attack-223203577.html

[AdamG]

The bodies of the 43 men and six women were found in the town of San Juan on the non-toll highway to the border city of Reynosa at about 4am on Sunday morning, forcing police and troops to close off the highway.

Nuevo Leon state security spokesman Jorge Domene said at a news conference that a banner left at the site bore a message with the Zetas drug cartel taking responsibility for the massacre.

Domene said the fact the bodies were found with the heads, hands and feet cut off will make identification difficult. The bodies were being taken to Monterrey for DNA tests.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/13/mexican-authorities-find-mutilated-bodies

[AdamG]

An army spokesman said Daniel Jesus Elizondo, known as El Loco, or The Madman, was arrested by troops.

The authorities say he is the local leader of the Zetas drug cartel, which, they say, left threatening messages with the bodies.

In a statement, Mexico's defence secretary said Mr Elizondo was detained on 18 May in Cadereyta municipality, where the 49 bodies had been found six days earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-18140844

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Cartel Drops Aerial Leaflets Against Gov't (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-cartel-drops-aerial-leaflets-against-govt)

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[AdamG]

American travelers to Mexico should beware of possible violent retaliation for this week's arrest of alleged Zetas drug cartel associates and family members inside the U.S., the U.S. State Department has warned.

http://news.yahoo.com/travel-warning-mexico-possible-violent-retaliation-against-americans-143445504--abc-news-topstories.html;_ylt=AsXTiqfUpFCq.BueiN_OWfemWot4; _ylu=X3oDMTUwYTloazZuBGNjb2RlA2N0LmMEbWl0A0FydGljb GUgTW9zdCBQb3B1bGFyBHBrZwNhNTk2OGQ0Zi1lZjczLTNiZDM tOWNlYi04ZWI0ZjM2YzM3M2EEcG9zAzQEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc 3RNaXhlZE1vc3RQb3B1bGFyQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgM4MTViMjEyMS1 iNTgwLTExZTEtYjVlZi01MGQ3MGJmZGQwZjg-;_ylg=X3oDMTNiZnJxMG03BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDMzZiODdjNWQtODVmOC0zOGUyLTgyZjEtZmRhNzViYz BiMTBjBHBzdGNhdANwb2xpdGljc3xkZXN0aW5hdGlvbjIwMTIE cHQDc3RvcnlwYWdl;_ylv=3

[SWJ Blog]

A New Anti-drug Strategy in Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/a-new-anti-drug-strategy-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

"Nothing says 'Obey Me' like a bloody head on a fencepost" - Stewie Griffin


In the latest example of Mexico's warring drug cartels taunting each other with gruesome on-line videos, footage posted on a popular cartel-tracking blog shows members of the Gulf cartel interrogating and then beheading at least three members of the Zetas cartel.

Link to video here
http://news.yahoo.com/drug-cartel-rivals-behead-zetas-camera-162505537--abc-news-topstories.html

[AdamG]

Can Mexico's new president end the drug wars?

Mexico elects Enrique Pea Nieto as its new leader, rejecting the ruling party in part because of its inability to end a bloody conflict with the drug cartels

http://theweek.com/article/index/230095/can-mexicos-new-president-end-the-drug-wars


Political tensions flare after Mexican presidential vote


Mexico City (CNN) -- Hours after Mexico's presumed president-elect, Enrique Pea Nieto, said it was time for his country to leave behind the political rancor of campaign season, his closest opponent in the polls refused to concede and said the vote had been "plagued by irregularities."

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/02/world/americas/mexico-elections/index.html

ballots? we don need no steekin ballots!

[AdamG]

Tens of thousands of protestors took to the streets in cities throughout Mexico the day after presidential elections declared Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate, Enrique Pea Nieto, the winner, and yet the news media has been largely quiet.

The Zocalo in Mexico City is a popular place hosting everything from Aztec ceremonies during pre-Hispanic times to a recent Justin Bieber concert - is also one of the most popular gathering places for protests. Which is what happened on July 7th after Mexico's contested presidential election returned power to the PRI a party that ruled Mexico for more than 70 consecutive years, and was known for corruption and repression.

Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/lifestyle/2012/07/10/mexicans-loudly-protest-election-results-mass-media-quiet/#ixzz20NKaWGFv






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eTfoVUb3pE&feature=youtu.be

[AdamG]

TOLUCA, Mexico (AP) – A gang of about a dozen armed people stormed into a church youth camp-out near Mexico City and went on an hours-long rampage of beatings, robberies and rape, authorities said Saturday.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-14/mexican-church-camp-attack/56225414/1

[SWJ Blog]

The Presidential Elections in Mexico: A “Narco Spring”? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-presidential-elections-in-mexico-a-%E2%80%9Cnarco-spring%E2%80%9D)

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[AdamG]

Great graphics worth grabbing from Canada's NATIONAL POST
http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/fo0714_mexicoweb940.jpg

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

A good catch there. As always the "devil is in the detail", in this case not the artwork, but in the text:
But a recent report by the Dept of Justice says drug demand is increasing...

Demand in the USA is increasing, I'm sure I'd read somewhere the demand for cocaine for example was down. Anyone know of a reputable situation report? Not that the DoJ is not reputable.

[AdamG]

Not that the DoJ is not reputable. http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/6826/20759344.gif Uh... yeah. That's a whole other thread.



The story of cocaine in the 21st century is of fierce competition. The retail value of the market has virtually halved in real terms in 13 years to $88bn in 2008, the UNODC estimates.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c01ffe08-6ef5-11e0-a13b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz20sncBNNz


According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, in 2010 about 22.6 million — or 9 percent — of Americans age 12 and older were current illegal drug users. This is the largest proportion in the past decade. Marijuana, cocaine and prescription drugs are the most frequently abused drugs.

The rest of this article is topical and worth the read
http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/224149-pulling-back-the-curtain-on-us-drug-demand

As I understand it, marijuana is the cartels' major cash crop - which is one of the cornerstones of the legalization efforts in the US : legalize it, tax the snot out of it like tobacco and (theoretically) take the wind out of the cartels' sails. YaMMV.

Meanwhile, back at the Hacienda: a smart Elliot Ness would hit them in their checkbooks ...


Lax controls at Europe's largest bank, HSBC, allowed Mexican drug cartels to launder billions of dollars through its US operations, an investigation by the US senate has found.

The extensive report on London-based HSBC Holdings PLC by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations also says US regulators knew the bank had a poor system to detect problems but failed to take action.

HSBC executives brushed off complaints from other bank employees, so that the problems persisted for eight years, the report says.

In addition, some HSBC bank affiliates skirted US government bans against financial transactions with Iran and other countries, according to the report.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/07/2012716213139157207.html

nb: I love it when Al Jazeera actually does the sort of journalism that N.Euro/US organs should do.

[AdamG]

Part of the solution needs to be eliminating the cancer within. Anyone care to bet as to whether these three will see hard time?



Prosecutors in Mexico have formally charged three generals and a lieutenant-colonel with having links to a drug-trafficking gang.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19075426

Note, these are Army guys not Navy.

[AdamG]

This ought to be interesting.


In a stunning development, President-elect Enrique Pea and his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), who won control of Mexicos government on July 1st, moved to dissolve the Agencia Federal de Investigacin (AFI). Modeled after the United States FBI, the AFI was founded in 2001 to crack down on Mexico’s pervasive government corruption and drug trafficking.



Two days after the election, President-elect Pea came to the U.S. to announce that he would welcome debate on the issue of drug legalization and regulation in Mexico. In an interview by PBS News Hour, President-elect Pena clearly stated:

I'm in favor of opening a new debate in the strategy in the way we fight drug trafficking. It is quite clear that after several years of this fight against drug trafficking, we have more drug consumption, drug use and drug trafficking. That means we are not moving in the right direction. Things are not working.

These are code words to signal the PRI intends to cut a profitable deal with the cartels to legalize drugs in exchange for collecting tax revenue on drug sales.


http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/08/01/MEXICO-DISSOLVES-THEIR-FBI-AND-MOVES-TO-LEGALIZE-DRUGS

[AdamG]

Former Mexican governor Mario Villanueva Madrid, who attended college in Jurez, pled guilty in a New York federal court of conspiring to launder $19 million in drug bribe payments he received from the Jurez drug cartel, officials said.

Villanueva, 64, ex-governor of Quintana Roo, the highest-level Mexican official extradited to the United States, will be sentenced in October.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_21228435/ex-mexico-governor-pleads-guilty-laundering-19m-from?source=rss_viewed

[SWJ Blog]

Extreme Violence and Terrorism in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/extreme-violence-and-terrorism-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

(CNN) -- Unknown gunmen attacked an American diplomatic vehicle south of Mexico City, injuring three people, a Mexican military official told CNN Mexico.

The motive behind the attack on the U.S. vehicle, which was on a diplomatic mission, was not immediately known.

Gunmen inside what was described as a Mexican federal police vehicle fired upon a U.S. Embassy vehicle, said the official, who declined to be named for security reasons.

The Mexican official said three Mexican marines were injured in the shooting. However, there were conflicting reports. Some Mexican reports stated that two of the injured were Americans.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/24/world/americas/mexico-shooting-us-marines/index.html

[SWJ Blog]

Americans Shot in Mexico Were CIA Operatives Aiding in Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/americans-shot-in-mexico-were-cia-operatives-aiding-in-drug-war)

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[SWJ Blog]

Guadalajara: The Next Epicenter of Violence in Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/guadalajara-the-next-epicenter-of-violence-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

(Reuters) - Mexican federal police shot and wounded two CIA operatives last week, security sources said, in an apparently deliberate attack that could hurt U.S.-Mexico cooperation in their war against drug cartels.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/us-mexico-shooting-idUSBRE87S19K20120829

[AdamG]

The ante just got upped.


The war on drugs just got a whole lot more warlike. Two hundred U.S. Marines have entered Guatemala, on a mission to chase local operatives of the murderous Zeta drug cartel.

The Marines are now encamped after having deployed to Guatemala earlier this month, and have just “kicked off” their share of Operation Martillo, or Hammer. That operation began earlier in January, and is much larger than just the Marine contingent and involves the Navy, Coast Guard, and federal agents working with the Guatemalans to block drug shipment routes.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/08/marinesvszetas/

[AdamG]

Narco version of celebrating diversity.


Mexican drug cartels are turning to a new and lucrative source of income south of the border. Smuggling drugs is making up ever smaller percentage of their business.

UTB Professor Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera is talking about the latest trend is stealing oil and other petroleum products. “They are diversifying to different activities such as extortion, kidnapping and very profitable business now is to steal oil and its derivatives including natural gas,”

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=789981#.UEdnpZad6So

[AdamG]

You'd think Cartel leaders would insist on better nicknames.


MEXICO CITY — Mexico's U.S.-backed naval special forces have captured a man believed to be one of the two top leaders of the Gulf cartel, a drug-trafficking organization that once dominated the northeast border region but has recently engaged in devastating battles with the vicious Zeta paramilitary force, authorities said Tuesday.

Mario Cardenas Guillen, alias El Gordo ("Fatso"), was paraded before reporters in Mexico City on Tuesday after his capture Monday in the northern border state of Tamaulipas.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-gulf-cartel-20120905,0,3311314.story

[SWJ Blog]

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #13: Man Crucified in Michoacán, Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-13-man-crucified-in-michoac%C3%A1n-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Deploys Troops to Outskirts of Mexico City (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-deploys-troops-to-outskirts-of-mexico-city)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Captures Zetas Drug Lord Ivan Velazquez Caballero (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-captures-zetas-drug-lord-ivan-velazquez-caballero)

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[SWJ Blog]

Piedras Negras, Coahuila, Mexico Under Martial Law After Multiple Gun Battles (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/piedras-negras-coahuila-mexico-under-martial-law-after-multiple-gun-battles)

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[SWJ Blog]

2 US Border Agents Shot, 1 Killed, Near Major Drug Corridor in Arizona (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2-us-border-agents-shot-1-killed-near-major-drug-corridor-in-arizona)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Cartel May Have Targeted CIA (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-cartel-may-have-targeted-cia)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexican Drug Cartels Fight Turf Battles in Chicago (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-drug-cartels-fight-turf-battles-in-chicago)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Matters! (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-matters)

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[AdamG]

The most wanted men in Mexico are tumbling


IN MARCH 2009 the Mexican government published a list of 37 men believed to be running drug gangs. The alleged bandits were named and rewards of up to 30m pesos ($2m) each were offered for their capture. The government’s normally stodgy official gazette listed the villains by their nicknames: Monkey, Beardy, Taliban and so on. It was a risky decision: the list could have become an embarrassment if its members had remained free.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-10?fsrc=nlw|newe|10-19-2012|3828517|38060644|

[bourbon]

The most wanted men in Mexico are tumbling
.....except for the men from Sinaloa.

[SWJ Blog]

Mexicans Wonder Why Drug War Doesn't Rate in Presidential Debate (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexicans-wonder-why-drug-war-doesnt-rate-in-presidential-debate)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico’s Drug Lords Ramp Up Their Arsenals with RPGs (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico%E2%80%99s-drug-lords-ramp-up-their-arsenals-with-rpgs)

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[SWJ Blog]

Tracking the Steady Rise of Beheadings in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/tracking-the-steady-rise-of-beheadings-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

Harvard Tracks Mexican Drug Gangs via Google (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/harvard-tracks-mexican-drug-gangs-via-google)

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[AdamG]

.....except for the men from Sinaloa.

As Madonna said in her movie, "NEXT!"


MEXICO CITY -- A drug capo described by Mexican officials as "one of the most important lieutenants" for Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the fugitive leader of the Sinaloa cartel, has been captured, the Defense Ministry announced Sunday.

Jesus Alfredo Salazar Ramirez, known as "The Doll," was taken into custody Thursday by military officials and federal prosecutors in the state of Mexico, outside the capital, according to a news release [link in Spanish]. Salazar is the alleged leader of a cell within the Sinaloa cartel known as "The Salazars" and is wanted in both the U.S. and Mexico on drug trafficking charges.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/key-lieutenant-sinaloa-cartel-leader-captured-chapo-guzman-jesus-salazar-ramirez.html



AMERICAN elections are watched closely in Mexico, which sends most of its exports and about a tenth of its citizens north of the border. But Tuesday’s presidential contest is not the only poll that’s sparking interest south of the Rio Grande. On the same day, voters in Colorado, Oregon and Washington will vote on whether to legalise marijuana—not just for medical use, but for fun and profit. Polls suggest that the initiatives have a decent chance of passing in Washington and Colorado (Oregon is a longer shot).

The impact on Mexico could be profound. Between 40% and 70% of American pot is reckoned to be grown in Mexico. According to a recent study (in Spanish) by the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), a think-tank in Mexico City, the American marijuana business brings in about $2 billion a year to Mexico’s drug traffickers. That makes it almost as important to their business as the cocaine trade, which is worth about $2.4 billion.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/11/legalising-marijuana?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/viewfromMexico

[AdamG]

14 of them, and they couldn't take out three guys? Awesome.

Almost as awesome as breaking this news at the dead end of a news cycle. :D


5:10PM EST November 9. 2012 - The Mexican government on Friday charged 14 federal police officers with trying to kill two CIA agents and a Mexican marine during an August ambush of an armored U.S. Embassy vehicle.

The off-duty officers, in private vehicles, attacked the agents' marked SUV with AK-47 assault rifles as they drove with a Mexican navy captain to a military training camp south of the capital, the Associated Press says. The Toyota Land Cruiser, bearing diplomatic license plates, was riddled with 152 bullets, wounding the two Americans.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/11/09/mexico-police-charged-attack-cia-embassy-vehicle/1695385/

[AdamG]

Members of Mexico’s most powerful cartel are selling a record amount of heroin and methamphetamine from Little Village, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. From there, the drugs are moving onto the streets of south and west Chicago, where they are sold in assembly-line fashion in mostly African American neighborhoods.

“Chicago, with 100,000 gang members to put the dope on the street, is a logistical winner for the Sinaloa cartel,” Jack Riley, the DEA’s special agent in charge of the Chicago field division, said after a tour through Little Village. “We have to operate now as if we’re on the Mexican border.”

It’s not just Chicago. Increasingly, as drug cartels have amassed more control and influence in Mexico, they have extended their reach deeper into the United States, establishing inroads across the Midwest and Southeast, according to American counternarcotics officials. An extensive distribution network supplies regions across the country, relying largely on regional hubs like this city, with ready markets off busy interstate highways.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-cities-become-hubs-of-mexican-drug-cartels/2012/11/03/989e21e8-1e2b-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html

[AdamG]

Defiant former Mexican mayor killed

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/27/world/americas/mexico-former-mayor-killed/



(Reuters) - A leftist Mexican lawmaker on Thursday presented a bill to legalize the production, sale and use of marijuana, adding to a growing chorus of Latin American politicians who are rejecting the prohibitionist policies of the United States.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/us-mexico-marijuana-idUSBRE8AE1V320121115?feedType=RSS&feedName=lifestyleMolt

[AdamG]

The Mexican military is trying to dismantle an extensive network of radio antennas built and operated by the notorious Zeta drug cartel. But the authorities haven’t had much luck shutting Radio Zeta down. Not only is much of the equipment super-easy to replace. But the cartel has also apparently found some unwilling — and alarming — assistance by kidnapping and enslaving technicians to help build it.

At least 36 engineers and technicians have been kidnapped in the past four years, according to a report from Mexican news site Animal Politico, with an English translation published by organized-crime monitoring group InSight. Worse, none of the engineers have been held for ransom — they’ve just disappeared. Among them include at least one IBM employee and several communications technicians from a firm owned by Mexico’s largest construction company. “The fact that skilled workers have been disappearing in these areas is no accident,” Felipe Gonzalez, head of Mexico’s Senate Security Committee, told the website.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/zeta-radio/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=RelatedLinks&utm_campaign=Previous

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Drug Policy and Security Review 2012 (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/mexico-drug-policy-and-security-review-2012)

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[SWJ Blog]

The Benefits of a Paramilitary Force in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-benefits-of-a-paramilitary-force-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

The Birth of American Operational Art: Winfield Scott’s Mexico City Campaign during the Mexican-American War of 1846-1848 (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-birth-of-american-operational-art-winfield-scott%E2%80%99s-mexico-city-campaign-during-the-mexi)

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[SWJ Blog]

Police on the Run in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/police-on-the-run-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

"At this stage there is no official explanation for the explosion, our correspondent says."

But DEFINITELY not a criminal act. Honest. This is a country with a rule of law after all, not some failed state in the middle of a low-grade civil war. Honest.


At least 14 people have died after an explosion rocked the headquarters of state oil company Pemex in Mexico City, officials say.

More than 80 were injured in the blast, Mexican Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong said.

Emergency services are searching for people trapped in the rubble, the BBC's Will Grant reports from the scene.

Last September, 30 people died in an explosion at a Pemex gas plant in northern Mexico.

"We have 13 dead at the scene and one more at the hospital," the interior minister told reporters.

"There are more than 80 wounded and we continue to look for survivors in the debris."

The 54-floor Pemex Executive Tower, which houses hundreds of employees, is located in a busy commercial area of Mexico City.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21288214

[SWJ Blog]

Patron Saints of the Mexican Drug Underworld Training Course (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/patron-saints-of-the-mexican-drug-underworld-training-course)

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[SWJ Blog]

Spread of Vigilantes Sparks Debate in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/spread-of-vigilantes-sparks-debate-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

Cyberwar in the Underworld: Anonymous versus Los Zetas in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/cyberwar-in-the-underworld-anonymous-versus-los-zetas-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

A Mexico Border Shootout Reveals Effort to Cover Up Violence (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/a-mexico-border-shootout-reveals-effort-to-cover-up-violence)

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[SWJ Blog]

Criminal Cartels and Rule of Law in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/criminal-cartels-and-rule-of-law-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

ACAPULCO, Mexico (AP) — Hundreds of armed vigilantes have taken control of a town on a major highway in the Pacific coast state of Guerrero, arresting local police officers and searching homes after a vigilante leader was killed. Several opened fire on a car of Mexican tourists headed to the beach for Easter week.

Members of the area's self-described "community police" say more than 1,500 members of the force were stopping traffic Wednesday at improvised checkpoints in the town of Tierra Colorado, which sits on the highway connecting Mexico City to Acapulco. They arrested 12 police and the former director of public security in the town after a leader of the state's vigilante movement was slain on Monday.

http://news.yahoo.com/mexican-vigilantes-seize-town-arrest-police-033530439.html

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Restrics Official Reports About Organized Crime (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-restrics-official-reports-about-organized-crime)

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[SWJ Blog]

How to Win the Mexican Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/how-to-win-the-mexican-drug-war)

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[SWJ Blog]

Why Mexico's Zetas Expanded Faster than their Rivals (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/why-mexicos-zetas-expanded-faster-than-their-rivals)

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[Bill Moore]

The Mexicans are wisely considering a new approach to address the threat from the Cartels, but that is making some of our so called experts nervous. The fact remains that the current strategy is not working, so clinging to it in hopes that it will eventually work seems a little over the top.

http://http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/us-role-at-a-crossroads-in-mexicos-intelligence-war-on-the-cartels/2013/04/27/b578b3ba-a3b3-11e2-be47-b44febada3a8_story.html

U.S. role at a crossroads in Mexico’s intelligence war on the cartels

The article points out that the new administration in Mexico is not going to focus on arresting drug kingpins due the violence that has resulted from this approach. U.S. concerns are that the new administration will seek some sort of truce of with the Cartels. One would hope there are other alternatives between continuing a failed strategy and making an under the table peace deal with the cartels.

During a meeting between Mexican and U.S. security leaders


the U.S. briefers left out the fact that most of the 25 kingpin taken off the streets in the past five years had been removed because of U.S.-supplied information, often including the location of top cartel members in real time, according to people familiar with the meeting


Also unremarked upon was the mounting criticism that success against the cartels’ leadership had helped incite more violence than anyone had predicted


Meanwhile, the drug flow into the United States continued unabated. Mexico remains the U.S. market’s largest supplier of heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine and the transshipment point for 95 percent of its cocaine.

[SWJ Blog]

Friction Rises as Mexico Curbs U.S Role in Drug Fight (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/friction-rises-as-mexico-curbs-us-role-in-drug-fight)

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[SWJ Blog]

The Revenge of Geography: Why Mexico Matters (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-revenge-of-geography-why-mexico-matters)

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[SWJ Blog]

Ruthless Mexican Drug Cartel Recruiting in the U.S.; Los Zetas Looks to Prisons, Street Gangs (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/ruthless-mexican-drug-cartel-recruiting-in-the-us-los-zetas-looks-to-prisons-street-gangs)

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[AdamG]

Drugs, Chaos And Violence Darken Mexico's 'Midnight'
http://www.npr.org/2013/07/09/196314587/drugs-chaos-and-violence-darken-mexicos-midnight

[bourbon]

Zetas leader captured by Mexican marines, authorities confirm (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/nationworld/mexico/20130715-zetas-leader-captured-by-mexican-marines-authorities-confirm.ece), by Alfredo Corchado. Dallas News, 15 July 2013.

MEXICO CITY — Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, or “40,” leader of the brutal Zetas paramilitary drug cartel, has been captured, authorities on both sides of the border confirmed.

Known as much for his brutality as for his binational ties, Treviño Morales, who has ties to the Dallas area, was captured by Mexican marines early Monday near the border town of Nuevo Laredo, signaling the biggest victory against organized crime for the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieto. The Zetas’ rise to power in Mexico changed the dynamics and ushered in a new era of violence across the country.

[AdamG]

Came here to add exactly that, have this as a bonus.


Officials have described Miguel Angel Trevino, aka "Z-40," as a brutal killer who liked to "stew" his enemies by plunging them in containers of oil and fuel before lighting them on fire, AFP reports.

Bet he's a blast at parties.

http://www.businessinsider.com/zetas-cartel-leader-captured-2013-7

[SWJ Blog]

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #19: Sniper Rifle Use in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-19-sniper-rifle-use-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

Peripheral readin'
http://www.npr.org/2013/07/09/196314587/drugs-chaos-and-violence-darken-mexicos-midnight

[SWJ Blog]

On the Arrest of Mexican Drug Kingpin Z-40 (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/on-the-arrest-of-mexican-drug-kingpin-z-40)

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[davidbfpo]

An overview from KoW, which ends with:
The arrest of Trevio Morales is a strong signal of Mexicos capacity to go against the most violent criminal groups. But Los Zetas strategic thinking remains a powerful influence over criminal actors there, some of which may now apply this way of combat to explore gaps in their old enemys structure.

Link:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2013/07/los-zetas-way-of-combat/

[AdamG]

MORELIA, Mexico (AP) — Gunmen ambushed and killed one of Mexico's highest ranking navy officials and the officer escorting him Sunday in the rough western state of Michoacan, authorities said. Two other people were injured in the shooting in an area where a fight between rival drug cartels has caused a new outburst of violence.

The state prosecutors' office said the attack on Vice Adm. Carlos Miguel Salazar happened on a dirt road near the town of Churintzio. The motive was unclear, but Salazar is the top navy commander in the neighboring Pacific coastal state of Jalisco.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/mexicos-navy-vice-admiral-killed-ambush

[SWJ Blog]

Counterinsurgency Lessons for Mexico’s Drug War: Interpreting Spasms of Violence (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/counterinsurgency-lessons-for-mexico%E2%80%99s-drug-war-interpreting-spasms-of-violence)

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[AdamG]

How a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs


As the violence spread, billions of dollars of cartel cash began to seep into the global financial system. But a special investigation by the Observer reveals how the increasingly frantic warnings of one London whistleblower were ignored


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/03/us-bank-mexico-drug-gangs

[SWJ Blog]

US Angry Over Release of Mexican Drug Lord (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/us-angry-over-release-of-mexican-drug-lord)

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[SWJ Blog]

Cartel Car Bombings in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/cartel-car-bombings-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

Narco-Politics: How Mexico Got There and How It Can Get Out (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/narco-politics-how-mexico-got-there-and-how-it-can-get-out)

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[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Vigilantes attacked local police officers in the southern Mexico state of Guerrero, beat them with rifle butts and machetes and handcuffed them, then stole their rifles and briefly kidnapped some municipal officials, authorities said Tuesday.

The clash Monday in Tixtla highlighted the confusion and contradictions in the Mexican government's effort to deal with "self-defense groups" that have sprung up in parts of southern Mexico since February to fight drug cartels.

Some vigilantes openly carry weapons and periodically scuffle with police and soldiers, but the most truculent of them have not been arrested even while dozens of members of smaller, more isolated self-defense groups have been hauled off to jail.

http://www.chron.com/news/crime/article/Mexico-s-vigilantes-attack-local-police-take-arms-4764875.php

[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY—For the past few years this sprawling capital has weathered the country's drug war as an island largely free from the violence that the drug trade brings. But a series of high-profile kidnappings and murders has raised fears that crime is once again on the rise in Mexico City.

In contrast to the nation's cartel wars, in which thousands of people have been slaughtered by the country's drug gangs, the recent killings in Mexico City have been far fewer, and appear to involve local street gangs. But many cases have been no less grisly.

One of the most notorious involves authorities' discovery late last week of a mass grave holding the bodies of 13 people in a poor Mexico City suburb. Officials on Friday confirmed that five of the bodies belonged to a group of 12 young people who vanished in a mass kidnapping in May from a nightclub in the Zona Rosa tourist district—the first such crime the capital had seen in years.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323980604579029474078593280.html

[SWJ Blog]

In Mexico, Self Defense Groups Battle a Cartel (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/in-mexico-self-defense-groups-battle-a-cartel)

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[SWJ Blog]

Has Drug Violence in Mexico Declined? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/has-drug-violence-in-mexico-declined)

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[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY -- Assailants early Sunday blew up at least nine electrical power plants in one of Mexico's largest states, triggering blackouts that gunmen then used as cover to torch gasoline stations, residents and authorities said.

The attacks in Michoacan state, west of the capital, did not cause deaths or serious injuries, authorities said. But they served as a pointed reminder of the strength of drug gangs and other criminals.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-mexico-blow-up-nine-electrical-plants-20131027,0,3659405.story#axzz2iyBZZSkV

[SWJ Blog]

Narco Armor: Improvised Armored Fighting Vehicles in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/narco-armor-improvised-armored-fighting-vehicles-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY — While millions of Mexicans celebrated the Day of the Dead holiday in peace this weekend, violence erupted in numerous areas of the country as well, including a series of drug cartel-related gunfights Sunday in and around the border city of Matamoros that left at least 13 people dead.

On the other side of the country, the Mexican military on Monday reportedly disarmed the entire police force in the municipality of Lazaro Cardenas, home to the Pacific Ocean port of the same name, with troops taking over the police functions in the area.

The reasons for the military takeover of the municipality in the troubled state of Michoacan were not immediately clear. But Eduardo Sanchez, the federal government's security spokesman, said at a news conference that the government had received tips about possible "acts of corruption, acts of collusion, etc." at the port, which is known as a shipment point for the precursor chemicals for methamphetamine.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-violence-mexico-military-police-20131104,0,7208929.story#axzz2k9Tz1PT9




MEXICO CITY — Ygnacio Lopez Mendoza was one of the few mayors from Mexico’s troubled state of Michoacan who openly sounded the alarm about the narco thugs whose extortion demands were targeting even small local governments like his.

“The insecurity … is something that everybody in the world knows, but no one talks about,” Lopez, who represented the rural municipality of Santa Ana Maya, told reporters in February. “Why? Because we have to deal with organized crime, we have to pay them.”

The Mexican government heard his complaints, promising to send more resources to the area after Lopez staged a hunger strike in Mexico City, the capital, last month. But others were listening too.

On Friday, the director of the Assn. of Local Authorities of Mexico said in a radio interview that Lopez had been abducted, tortured and killed. Lopez's body was discovered Thursday in his truck in the neighboring state of Guanajuato.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-mexico-michoacan-state-dead-20131108,0,1422201.story#axzz2k9Tz1PT9

[SWJ Blog]

Documents Show Depth of US Concern over Mexico Violence (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/documents-show-depth-of-us-concern-over-mexico-violence)

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[SWJ Blog]

'Narco Cultura' Film By Shaul Schwarz Exposes Drug Culture, Narcocorridos In Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/narco-cultura-film-by-shaul-schwarz-exposes-drug-culture-narcocorridos-in-mexico)

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[Bill Moore]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57612705/mexican-vigilantes-battling-cartel-take-over-another-town/

Mexican vigilantes, battling cartel, take over another town


Vigilantes belonging to a "self-defense" movement took over another town in the Mexican state of Michoacan Saturday amid confrontations that left two people dead and three wounded.


Residents in about a half-dozen Michoacan towns have risen up since February to shake off the dominance of the pseudo-religious cartel, which levied heavy and wide-ranging extortion payments on the population.Authorities have said that some of the vigilantes are supported by a rival drug cartel from the neighboring state of Jalisco, an accusation the self-styled "self-defense" forces deny.

Another case where a particular criminal or insurgent has overstepped resulting a backlash that is beyond their capability to handle. If the allegation of another DTO supporting them is true it makes perfect sense for another DTO to leverage this situation to remove a competitor, and it would make equal sense for the government to co-opt this movement to establish control of the region.

This particular situation nests with a theory and model that are worth considering. Kilcullen's "Theory of Competitive Control" which he expresses as,
"In irregular conflicts (at least one combatant is a nonstate armed group), the local armed actor that a given population perceives as best able to establish a predictable, consistent, wide-spectrum normative system of control is most likely to dominate that population and its residential area." From his book, Out of the Mountains The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla.

The model was one that then LTC(P) Wendt referred to in his article Strategic COIN Modeling, called the equivalent response model.

http://www.dvidshub.net/publication/issues/8238

p.4 (more at the site)


The equivalent-response model demonstrates that for insurgencies to achieve their desired and necessary growth, they must keep their
actions within a “band of excellence,” between the maximum and
minimum acceptable thresholds for violence (V-max and V-min).

While the model focuses on violence, it clearly can be applied to any behavior that exceeds what the population will tolerate to include extortion. The various cartels/DTOs battling one another along with the state and now the vigilantes all have to operate/compete with between V-Max and V-min to establish competitive control of a region.

[SWJ Blog]

Researchers Note: Acronyms of the Mexican Drug War (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/researchers-note-acronyms-of-the-mexican-drug-war)

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[SWJ Blog]

Think Again: Mexican Drug Cartels (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/think-again-mexican-drug-cartels)

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[SWJ Blog]

Helicopter Gunships Used in Mexico Resort Battle (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/helicopter-gunships-used-in-mexico-resort-battle)

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[AdamG]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Nine people were killed during a gunfight at a prison in Mexico's violent Guerrero state, after a gang dressed as police officers gained entry on Friday, authorities said.

Six gunmen wearing police uniforms were allowed to enter the prison by unsuspecting guards who believed the men were delivering another prisoner, state prosecutors said.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/nine-dead-attackers-dressed-police-enter-mexican-prison-225239715.html

[AdamG]

Mexican vigilante gunmen disarm local POLICE so they can rid town of feared Knights Templar drug cartel


Residents living in fear of violent criminal gangs in south-west Mexico are taking matters into their own hands
Yesterday 600 vigilantes seized control of town of Paracuaro in Michoacan state in bloody battle that left one dead
Convoy of 'autodefensas', or self-defence groups, drove into the town controlled by drugs gang in blacked-out SUVs
They took back control from the Cabelleros Templarios (Knights Templar) gang which terrorised local residents
In neighbouring Guerrero state, vigilante group the Public Safety System marched in honour of first anniversary

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534496/Mexican-vigilante-gunmen-disarm-local-POLICE-rid-town-feared-Knights-Templar-drug-cartel.html

[carl]

It was interesting to see the mix of weapons and ages in the two local self defense groups pictured in the story Adam G linked to. The one group appeared to be mostly well armed young men, the other mostly older men with shotguns, at least in the photos shown.

[SWJ Blog]

Vandals or Complex Criminal Networks in Mexico? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/vandals-or-complex-criminal-networks-in-mexico)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico: Crucible of State Change (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/mexico-crucible-of-state-change)

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[SWJ Blog]

Hong Kong Triads Work with Mexican Drug Lords on Methamphetamine (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/hong-kong-triads-work-with-mexican-drug-lords-on-methamphetamine)

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[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Starts Disarming Vigilantes (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-starts-disarming-vigilantes)

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[Ron Obvious]

Mexican vigilante gunmen disarm local POLICE so they can rid town of feared Knights Templar drug cartel


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534496/Mexican-vigilante-gunmen-disarm-local-POLICE-rid-town-feared-Knights-Templar-drug-cartel.html

I'm aware of allegations that the American gov't let weapons walk, and they end up used by Mexican criminal persons. I've yet seen corporate media outlets say where the 'self-defense' groups get their weaponry. Are there state actors providing them? Mexico can't claim a 2nd Amendment, so I'm a bit flummoxed on where the guns come from.

[AdamG]

Vigilante groups in Mexico's Michoacan state are defying government orders to lay down their weapons, as the Mexican army makes a new push to pacify this conflict-ridden and strategic part of the country.

http://fusion.net/justice/story/happening-mexicos-michoacan-state-382426

http://www.fafhoonoticias.org/2014/01/fotosvideo-guerra-civil-en-michoacan.html

[AdamG]

AGUA PRIETA - New details being released on a shoot-out in Agua Prieta, Sonora south the US/Mexico border where several fatalities occurred in two separate incidents.

According to the Cochise County Sheriff's Office all information received indicates that this is probably cartel related with massive amounts of munitions used to include automatic weapons, 50 caliber weapons, and hand grenades.

The Cochise County Sheriff's Office is reporting the death toll between 8-13 people, none of whom are listed as US Citizens.

http://www.kvoa.com/news/gun-battle-in-agua-prieta-sonora-at-least-8-reported-dead/

[SWJ Blog]

Mexico Legalizes Vigilantes: AP Twofer (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexico-legalizes-vigilantes-ap-twofer)

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[AdamG]

LA RUANA, Mexico — A week after the federal government seized security functions in troubled Michoacan state, the organized crime group wreaking havoc in the state has gone to ground.

But the top three leaders of the Knights Templar gang remain at large, and the armed citizens militia that’s put the gang on the run says it won’t give up its weapons until the leaders are caught.

“If they don’t capture these people, then we will remain armed,” said Hipolito Mora, one of the founders of the vigilante movement that began 11 months ago and has occupied much of the state where the Knights Templar had been active.

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/01/20/2909781/mexican-vigilantes-say-theyll.html#storylink=cpy

http://youtu.be/muq67zYck7w

[SWJ Blog]

Zetas Training US Gang Members in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/zetas-training-us-gang-members-in-mexico)

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[AdamG]

“Drug trafficking is always going to continue,” says Neftali Villagomez, a 66-year-old butcher who now commands nearly 400 armed vigilantes in Tierra Colorada, a rural market town 35 miles north of the gang-ravaged resort of Acapulco.

“We aren't against drug traffickers,” he says. “We are against organized crime.”

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/mexico/140207/mexican-drug-war-guerrero-militias

[SWJ Blog]

All Options Bad If Mexico’s Drug Violence Expands to U.S. (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/all-options-bad-if-mexico%E2%80%99s-drug-violence-expands-to-us)

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[SWJ Blog]

Grounded Theory Study Defining Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization Cross-border Violence (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/grounded-theory-study-defining-mexican-drug-trafficking-organization-cross-border-violence)

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[AdamG]

Joaquin Guzman, the world’s most-wanted drug lord, was arrested Friday night in Mexico without incident. Worth $1 billion, he’s been hiding out since 2001, when he escaped a maximum security prison in Mexico by bribing guards to smuggle him out in a laundry cart.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/drug-lord-joaquin-el-chapo-guzman-busted-mexico-article-1.1698120#ixzz2u5hEKITE

[davidbfpo]

Is this suspected drug lord wanted in the USA? He might actually stay awhile longer there, than in Mexico; unless he "slips on the soap".

[AdamG]

Laird Rahm Emmanuel, Prince of the Chicago Fiefdom, wants him.


Guzman has been most notably charged in two federal grand jury indictments in the U.S. – in Chicago in 2009, and In El Paso in 2012.

In the Chicago case, the more sweeping of the two, he is charged along with 10 other Sinaloan cartel leaders in a massive indictment for moving heroin and cocaine into this country after his organization merged with another “affiliated cartel” and formed an alliance knows as “the Federation.”

But that agreement later fractured, and since then, according to the “special grand jury“ impaneled just to look at the cartel case, Guzman and other leaders “became engaged in a violent war in Mexico over various issues, including control of lucrative narcotics trafficking routes into the United States.”

Federal prosecutors in Chicago brought the charges against Guzman in Chicago in 2009, after the two cartels began a feud and two brothers, Pedro and Margarito Flores, who had been working with the cartels began cooperating with federal investigators.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-02-22/news/chi-drug-cartel-leader-guzman-caught-20140222_1_sinaloa-cartel-zambada-joaquin-guzman



In Chicago, where the city's crime commission last year named Guzman its Public Enemy No. 1 -- a designation originally crafted for Al Capone -- authorities praised the arrest. Chicago is among the major destinations of the cartel's drug flow.

"The arrest of Chapo Guzman is significant," police Superintendent Garry McCarthy said in a statement. "This is a victory, but we know the tentacles of his cartel still exist and much more work remains to be done. Demand for narcotics will still remain, so we will continue to partner with the DEA as they fight international drug trade, and we will remain focused on our efforts to eliminate the factors that drive violence in our city."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/22/world/americas/mexico-cartel-chief-arrest/

[SWJ Blog]

Sinaloa Drug Cartel Can Continue (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/sinaloa-drug-cartel-can-continue)

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[SWJ Blog]

Man, The State and War Against Drug Cartels: A Typology of Drug-Related Violence in Mexico (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/man-the-state-and-war-against-drug-cartels-a-typology-of-drug-related-violence-in-mexico)

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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/man-the-state-and-war-against-drug-cartels-a-typology-of-drug-related-violence-in-mexico) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
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[SWJ Blog]

Narco-Cities: Mexico and Beyond (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/narco-cities-mexico-and-beyond)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

TEPACA DE BADIRAGUATO, MEXICO — The surge of cheap heroin spreading in $4 hits across rural America can be traced back to the remote valleys of the northern Sierra Madre.

With the wholesale price of marijuana falling — driven in part by decriminalization in sections of the United States — Mexican drug farmers are turning away from cannabis and filling their fields with opium poppies.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/tracing-the-us-heroin-surge-back-south-of-the-border-as-mexican-cannabis-output-falls/2014/04/06/58dfc590-2123-4cc6-b664-1e5948960576_story.html

[AdamG]

Outmanned and outgunned, local law enforcement officers are alarmed by the drug and human trafficking, prostitution, kidnapping and money laundering that Mexican drug cartels are conducting in the U.S. far from the border.

U.S. sheriffs say that securing the border is a growing concern to law enforcement agencies throughout the country, not just those near the U.S.-Mexico boundary.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/9/sheriffs-warn-of-violence-from-mexican-cartels-dee/#ixzz2yXujfq6I




The migrants are no longer primarily Mexican laborers. Instead they are Central Americans, including many families with small children and youngsters without their parents, who risk a danger-filled journey across Mexico. Driven out by deepening poverty but also by rampant gang violence, increasing numbers of migrants caught here seek asylum, setting off lengthy legal procedures to determine whether they qualify.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/11/us/poverty-and-violence-push-new-wave-of-migrants-toward-us.html?_r=0

[SWJ Blog]

The Evolution of Los Zetas in Mexico and Central America (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-evolution-of-los-zetas-in-mexico-and-central-america)

Entry Excerpt:



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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

Interesting read -

The Hunt for El Chapo
How the world’s most notorious drug lord was captured.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/05/140505fa_fact_keefe