Small War in Mexico: 2002-2015 (closed) [Archive]

SWJED

10-30-2006, 05:37 PM

A Line in the Sand: Confronting the Threat at the Southwest Border - excerpt from the Executive Summary and Findings:

... Mexican drug cartels operating along the Southwest border are more sophisticated and dangerous than any other organized criminal enterprise. The Mexican cartels, and the smuggling rings and gangs they leverage, wield substantial control over the routes into the United States and pose substantial challenges to U.S. law enforcement to secure the Southwest border. The cartels operate along the border with military grade weapons, technology and intelligence and their own respective paramilitary enforcers.

In addition, human smugglers coordinate with the drug cartels, paying a fee to use the cartels’ safe smuggling routes into the Unites States. There are also indications the cartels may be moving to diversify their criminal enterprises to include the increasingly lucrative human smuggling trade.

Moreover, U.S. law enforcement has established that there is increasing coordination between Mexican drug cartels, human smuggling networks and U.S.-based gangs. The\ cartels use street and prison gangs located in the United States as their distribution networks. In the United States, the gang members operate as surrogates and enforcers for the cartels.

Murders and kidnappings on the both sides of the border have significantly increased in recent years. The violence along the U.S.-Mexican border has increased so dramatically, the United States Ambassador to Mexico, Tony Garza, during the last year, has issued an unprecedented number of diplomatic notes to the Mexican Government and threat advisories to U.S. citizens traveling to Mexico. During August 2005, the Ambassador closed the U.S. consulate in Nuevo Laredo for one week in order to assess security.

This new generation of sophisticated and violent cartels, along the Southwest border, is presenting significant challenges to U.S. law enforcement. These criminal syndicates have unlimited money to buy the most advanced weapons and technology available. The cartels monitor the movements and communications of law enforcement and use that intelligence to enable the criminals to transport their cargo accordingly.

In addition to the criminal activities and violence of the cartels on our Southwest border, there is an ever-present threat of terrorist infiltration over the Southwest border. Data indicates that there are hundreds of illegal aliens apprehended entering the United States each year who are from countries known to support and sponsor terrorism...

carl

11-01-2006, 12:14 PM

I think the statement "The Next Small War Has Begun" maybe overstating the case a bit. We here in the United States face a law enforcement problem, one that is not unprecedented in our history or on the border. That problem is managable as attested to in the reports description of programs that drastically reduced crime along some border areas.

Mexico may have an incipient small war on their hands as it seems some of the drug cartels are getting confident enough to challenge the central government.

The wave of illegal immigration is mostly caused by disparity in the economies of Mexico and the United States; labor is moving from where it isn't needed and rewarded to where it is. The report barely notes this and offers no suggestion as to how to accomodate a migration that can't really be stopped.

The other component of the problem is drugs. People want them and will pay, a lot, to get them. That money finances small wars in South America and Asia. I would like to see a discussion about how the legalization of drugs, at least some of them, would affect some of these conflicts.

My opinion is we can't stop the importation of drugs, so we may as well tax and regulate them. We can't do that unless we can see them and we won't see them unless we make them legal.

As an aside, a vetern officer told me once that the difference between police work and the military was that when you do police work, if you are lucky and you get it right, everyone goes home at night. Some might have a new home, but everybody goes home. I've always found that helpful.

Jedburgh

11-07-2006, 01:51 PM

ISN, 7 Nov 06: Illegal Migration and Mexico’s Maras (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=16883)

As Americans vote in mid-term elections on 7 November, immigration and border security will be two important issues. Yet from the Mexican point of view, heavy pressure from Washington to curb violence and stop illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border has strained relations and taken much needed resources from Mexico’s southern border between Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. The city of Tapachula, the second most populated urban center in Chiapas, is at the center of a clandestine world of illegal migration, human smuggling and prostitution.

Mexican authorities in 2005 reported that at least 3,000 members of Central American street gangs, known locally as “maras” or “pandilleros,” prey on illegal migrants passing through the state. Since then, the numbers of maras have grown. A hurricane that ripped apart the infrastructure in early October 2005 removed important transport lines, such as the Tapachula-Salina Cruz train, forcing immigrants to walk and making them much more vulnerable.

The Mexican state of Chiapas has long been a problematic area for smuggling, passing from Central America to Mexico. Yet like many of Mexico’s other states that suffer from the drug trade and immigration patterns, police corruption, limited resources, and perhaps most of all, political pressure focused on the north has maintained a status quo where thugs steal from poor immigrants and cops do little to stop them...

selil

11-13-2006, 01:38 PM

Pulled from Blackwater Tactical today....

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/11/ap/world/mainD8LAL8V01.shtml

(AP) U.S. Border Patrol agents chasing suspected drug traffickers on the Texas border allegedly crossed into Mexico and had a brief standoff with Mexican police before peacefully returning, Mexican authorities said Friday.

Jose Luis Delgado, a police officer in Guadalupe, about 25 miles southeast El Paso, Texas _ said he and two colleagues encountered some U.S. Border Patrol agents on Mexican territory.

He said the Mexican police responded Thursday with guns drawn to a report that a marijuana-laden pickup truck had been abandoned in the Rio Grande.

"When we arrived (the U.S. officials) drew their weapons," Delgado said.

Delgado said he identified himself as a police officer and that the American agents returned to their side of the border without further problems.

More at the link.......

slapout9

11-13-2006, 03:29 PM

selil,thanks for posting this. I had a friend tell me about this but I had not read anything about it until now. This is not the first time this has happened and won't be the last. Other incidents have been a lot worse than this but the MSM never seemed to care until it became a hot issue.

Bill Moore

11-13-2006, 10:41 PM

The situation on the border has been serious for years, so to define it as the next small war is probably a bit of a reach; however, the fact that persons of interest are using Mexican cartels to smuggle them across our borders, then link them into a trans-state, trans regional gang network for support is obviously cause for concern. We can call it a law enforcement problem on our side of the border, but law enforcement on Mexico's side of the border is notably inept, and since it poses a security threat to our national interests on many levels (narcotics, human smuggling, weapons smuggling, support of gangs, potential support of terrorists if they pay enough, etc.) then maybe asking the military, or other agencies to start addressing the problem across the border is not out of the question. What was once a relatively harmless (despite the political mileage some politicians got from it) of illegal aliens crossing the border at will to work low paying jobs, is now much more significant.

slapout9

11-14-2006, 01:02 AM

Bill, it is not just Mexico helping persons of interest, Cuba, and Hugo (professional devil smeller) Chavez have been involved. About two or three weeks ago Lou Dobbs of CNN did a special about the border, the Mexican government actually produces a pamphlet on how to cross the border and make trouble for the gringos, they are considered hero's in Mexico and should do all they can to ripp off the gringo economy. When a legitimate government does that I would say that qualifies as a phase 1 insurgency (latent and subversive).

Also some of the Latino gangs"MS13" in particular are not just drug gangs but are actually revolutionary terrorist gangs. Now I am not saying we should redeploy the 1ST Cav along the border , but border patrol and national guard units could make a big dent is this problem. Two governors along the border have already said they are in a state of emergency over this.

So I say instead of waiting to the last minute like the US usually does, lets control our borders like we should have been doing all along.

Later, Viva Las Vegas!

Bill Moore

11-14-2006, 02:58 AM

Slapout, what ya saying, dig into a defensive position and hope for the best? We can't afford deploying that type of man power for an extended period of time, nor will a static defense work. Assumng that what you posted is factual (I like Lou, but where are the supporting facts?), then we need to conduct cross border operations to target the facilitators (cartels, and others). Furthermore, if it is true that the recognized government (instead of some shadow government) published a how to paper on how to cross the border, and then prompted the illegals to rip off the gringos, then we're in a state of conflict. This is well beyond the capability of law enforcement to manage (they're failing miserably, and it isn't due to lack of effort). Northern Mexico cannot be a safe haven for cross border operations into the U.S.. Right now they're free to sit across the border, watch our police patrols on the border, intercept their communications, and direct their infiltrations between the seams. This isn't strictly a law enforcement problem.

slapout9

11-14-2006, 05:01 AM

Hi Bill, It's me again.....

The link below is a transcript of the Lou dobbs special called Broken Borders.
It was a long show but if you read it (1/3 down) you will see where the Mexican Government publishes a book on how to illegally cross the border and encourages it citizens to do this to get money from the US. The book looks like comic book and of course you would have to order the video to see it but it is described in the transcript. You can also read about hand grenades and IED's being used.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0610/29/ldt.01.html

PS Bill here is a song from Lou Dobbs show called "Goodby Teaxs Hello Mexico"
http://www.texasreddirtmusic.com/slthm.html

Sergeant T

11-15-2006, 04:57 AM

Having grown up in San Diego this entire topic is very déjà vu. What was a southern California problem for decades became a “national” problem. One local TV station made a great deal of hay back in the mid 80’s when they showed groups of Mexican kids crossing the border illegally every morning to line up at the bus stop and then get picked up by school busses and taken to American schools.

One of the origins of the problem as it currently exits is our success in tamping down the Colombian cartels. Squeezing sea based supply routes shifted trafficking to overland routes. Where ever drug trafficking and its enormous sums of money go so will a heavy dose of corruption, kidnapping, murder, etc. South Florida’s problems of the 80’s have become south Texas’ problems, writ large. This will take a bigger investment of time and resources to correct.

One quick observation. The corner of ATL where I work and live has a heavy Hispanic immigrant (read: illegal alien) presence. Almost all of the new immigrants we’ve been getting for the past two years have been Guatemalan. The only thing I can read into that is the exportable labor pool in Mexico is shrinking.

selil

01-05-2007, 07:56 PM

Seems border hostilities are warming here in CONUS.

http://www.azcentral.com/12news/news/articles/borderstory0104-CR.html

Guardsmen overrun at the Border

A U.S. Border Patrol entry Identification Team site was overrun Wednesday night along Arizona's border with Mexico.

According to the Border Patrol, an unknown number of gunmen attacked the site in the state's West Desert Region around 11 p.m. The site is manned by National Guardsmen. Those guardsmen were forced to retreat.
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The Border Patrol will not say whether shots were fired. However, no Guardsmen were injured in the incident.

The Border Patrol says the incident occurred somewhere along the 120 mile section of the border between Nogales and Lukeville. The area is known as a drug corridor. Last year, 124-thousand pounds of illegal drugs were confiscated in this area.

The Border patrol says the attackers quickly retreated back into Mexico.

Not much more at the link other than some video talking about this being a probe to see how the guardsman would react.

Steve Blair

01-05-2007, 08:22 PM

An interesting BBC piece here (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6234393.stm) about the TJ police.

Local police in the northern Mexican border city of Tijuana have been ordered to hand in their guns.

The move is part of an operation by soldiers and federal police to crack down on drug traffickers.

A short article, but an interesting indicator of how far things have gone "south," if you will. And who's to say that the army isn't interesting in cutting itself in on a nice slice of that narco-money action?

slapout9

01-06-2007, 01:09 AM

Theses attacks have been picking up quite about lately. Whenever the Border Patrol want comment on shots fired, you can bet there were! I was trying to find some other articles but I cant remember where I saw them but head chopping is becoming the favorite terrorist tactic down there. Wonder where they learned that?

Bill Moore

01-06-2007, 02:01 AM

Jedburgh

01-06-2007, 03:57 AM

I recall there was a little disagreement about Slapout's original post suggesting that the conflict on our southern was the next small war, but I think events (not just the ones mentioned here) are indicators that we are in a war of sorts, a 4th or 5th generation type conflict, where gangs have wrested control from the state (in Northern Mexico), and now they are trying to expand their control into border states (it has been going on for years, but we may be a tipping point where they feel they're strong enough to challenge us with force). Regardless of whether organized criminals or insurgents, they pose a serious threat to the security of our citizens, a threat that may be beyond the ability of law enforcement to handle.

Furthermore many gangs throughout the U.S. are becoming more sosphisticated, better networked, and in some instances starting to coalese into sosphisticated mafia like organizations (this makes them both more dangerous and more vulnerable). This is an insurgency, not for control of the government, but to weaken the government's ability to challenge their criminal enterprises. The street punk is now a punk soldier in a private Army motivated by greed and ego.

A lot of these thoughts need to be flushed out further, but I think we may have our head in the sand regarding the threat in our homefront and on our border. If our government can't control these punks based on their network organization, we will expose a soft underbelly that many different threats can exploit.
Bill,

Dr. Max Manwaring has written and lectured a great deal on this very topic - and has worked at fleshing out the generational concepts of street gangs. This aspect of gang theory wasn't his creation - it was really given impetus by John Sullivan of the LA County Sheriff's Dept (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1382/MR1382.ch4.pdf) in the late '90s.

If you haven't read it, I recommend Manwaring's paper Street Gangs: The New Urban Insurgency (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB597.pdf), dated March 2005.

...The political-psychological issues of the urban gang phenomenon in the global security environment translate into constant subtle and not-so-subtle struggles for governmental power that dominate life throughout most of the world. This, in turn, leads to the slow but sure destruction of the state, its associated government, and the society. And, again, the basic threat devolves to that of state failure.

This contemporary political war situation is extremely volatile and dangerous and requires careful attention. In these terms, the United States, the other countries of the Western Hemisphere, and the entire global community must understand and cope with the threat imposed by diverse third generation gangs that are engaged in destabilizing and devastating violence, which is more and more often being called “terrorism,” “criminal anarchy,” “narco-terrorism,” or “complex emergency situations.” If the United States concentrates its efforts and resources elsewhere and ignores what is happening in Latin America and the Caribbean, the expansion of gangs, of “lawless areas,” and of general instability, as well as the compromise of effective national sovereignty and security could easily destroy the democracy, free market economies, and prosperity that have been achieved in recent years. In turn, that would profoundly affect the health of the U.S. economy―and U.S. concomitant power to act in the global security arena.
...to link this with what does have the national focus, there was also a student thesis from NPS (http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/research/theses/haussler05.pdf) in late '05 that took a look at the Iraqi insurgency in the context of "gang theory".

120mm

01-08-2007, 07:06 AM

slapout9

01-08-2007, 02:07 PM

120mm, its easy to tell the difference the criminals have newer cars.:)

slapout9

01-09-2007, 01:03 AM

On a more serious side some good Intel on Mexico's gangs and long range plans. Talks about Bolivians protecting drug routes these are land routes protected by boots on the ground, stealing form the people and their mind is on the money! Yes sometimes John Robb finds some good stuff but it ain't new. Can I get an Amen for a surge into Mexico and Central America. Whoop their Ass and take their gas!

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/johnrobb/

For listening pleasure and cultural enhancement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypdmfc2ErCw&mode=related&search=

pcmfr

01-09-2007, 01:56 AM

I was in Tiujuana/Baja over the weekend and Calderon's crackdown against the drug cartel was readily apparent. There were several military and Federales checkpoints along the main arteries out of the city and numerous trucks full of infantry moving throughout.

slapout9

01-09-2007, 04:20 AM

The drug smugglers dress like the Mexican Army. "231" documented incursions into US territory by Mexican army and law enforcement.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11226144/

AdamG

01-11-2007, 05:52 AM

El Universal, 11 Jan 07: Army troops prepare for crackdown (http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/22908.html)

ACAPULCO, Mexico – More than 1,000 Mexican army troops amassed in this Pacific resort community and two other cities in the western state of Guerrero on Wednesday in preparation for the third widespread federal crackdown on drugs and crime ordered by President Felipe Calderon in less than two months in office.

The troops, on loan from three states in northern, southern and central Mexico, began arriving Tuesday night and were on standby in Acapulco; the state capital, Chilpancino; and the city of Iguala while military commanders were briefed on drug cartel and other criminal operations in the area, said a state official who confirmed the operation.

In contrast to a similar operation in the northern border city of Tijuana, however, military officials as yet have no plans to strip local police officers of their weapons during the upcoming offensive in Acapulco and other violence-plagued cities including the resort city of Zihuatanejo, the official said.

AdamG

01-12-2007, 09:35 PM

http://www.lmtonline.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17703907&BRD=2290&PAG=461&dept_id=569392&rfi=6

NUEVO LAREDO – Unknown attackers ambushed two officers in the Mexican Army Intelligence Service in the southwest part of the city, killing a captain and injuring a colonel, officials said Thursday.The attack occurred near 7 p.m. Wednesday night as the two Army officers were driving on the highway to the airport near its intersection with Avenida Dr. Mier.

AdamG

04-18-2007, 11:46 PM

Mexican Drug Cartels Leave a Bloody Trail on YouTube (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/08/AR2007040801005_pf.html)

Bloody bodies -- slumped at steering wheels, stacked in pickup trucks, crumpled on sidewalks -- clog nearly every frame of the music video that shook Mexico's criminal underworld.

Posted on YouTube and countless Mexican Web sites last year, the video opens with blaring horns and accordions. Valentín Elizalde, a singer known as the "Golden Rooster," croons over images of an open-mouthed shooting victim. "I'm singing this song to all my enemies," he belts out.

Elizalde's narcocorrido, or drug trafficker's ballad, sparked what is believed to be an unprecedented cyberspace drug war. Chat rooms filled with accusations that he was promoting the Sinaloa cartel and mocking its rival, the Gulf cartel. Drug lords flooded the Internet with images of beheadings, execution-style shootings and torture.......

AdamG

05-18-2007, 03:30 PM

Mexico confronts surging violence (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/17/AR2007051701927.html)

.....Officials said Thursday that Mexican army troops had joined the fight Wednesday after a powerful drug cartel sent the assailants into town.

Armed with assault rifles and riding in 10 to 15 vehicles, they pulled four lightly armed city police officers out of police cars and executed them in a roadside park.

The invasion of Cananea — a town that helped spark the 1910 Mexican Revolution when U.S. forces crossed the border to help put down a miners' strike — showed the brashness and power of Mexico's ruthless organized crime gangs.....

AdamG

05-18-2007, 03:32 PM

Q: The situation in Mexico's border regions continues to get worse. What is currently happening inside Mexico's border regions looks like fourth generation warfare to me. Your thoughts? Where do you this going?

A: It’s going the same way as the rest of the world. Groups like the Zetas are fighting a war to make Mexico ungovernable. They are taking stuff right out of the Al Qaeda in Iraq handbook. Video Executions. Beheadings. Assassination. Weakening the state. It’s the same as Iraq but in Mexico.

Today, everyone is thinking about global platforms and the global economy. Nobody is beholden to a nation state anymore. The mindset has changed. Our needs-for cheap labor, cheap imports, illegal drugs--those needs will be met by the global marketplace. And its driving lawlessness. Things we do locally are having consequences globally.

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/05/q_tell_me_a_lit.html

slapout9

05-18-2007, 04:20 PM

AdamG great posts. We (the US) haven't seen anything yet compared to what this could turn into. But it will be interesting.

AdamG

05-21-2007, 08:56 PM

A Mexican cartel army's war within
Hit men known as the Zetas are aiming at their own as a power struggle spreads.
By Héctor Tobar,
LA Times
May 20, 2007

VERACRUZ, MEXICO — The two thoroughbreds sprinted down a country track, a few million dollars in the bettors' kitty and an old-fashioned camera waiting at the finish line.

When the race was over, as veterinarians guided the expensive equines back to their air-conditioned trailers, gamblers at the private track began to argue over the nose-to-nose conclusion. Among them were members of a band of hit men known as the Zetas, employees of the Gulf cartel of drug traffickers.

Let's just wait for the film to be developed, someone said.

Then, above the din, another voice rang out. "I've come to kill you!"

A new chapter was being added to the violent saga of Mexico's most notorious drug ring. More than a dozen people may have been killed in the gunfire that followed, an ambush in which the hit men appear to have attacked one another.

The whole article can be found here (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-zetas20may20,1,6866686.story?track=rss)

Bill Moore

07-11-2007, 03:26 PM

Robb posted a comment about this attack on his website today. This is a very traditional insurgent attack, and behold, they're not Islamists, but good ole leftists. I have no idea what the return on investment was from this attack yet, and we probably never will get accurate figures, but it should be a few million dollars worth of bang for the buck. Not only is there lost production, damage to the pipeline that needs repaired, but a huge investment in deploying security forces in an attempt to secure the pipeline(s).

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/07/10/mexico.explosion.reut/index.html#cnnSTCText

Mexico vows to increase pipeline security after blasts
Story Highlights
There were explosions at a natural gas pipeline early Tuesday

A leftist rebel group has claimed responsibility

No oil exports were affected by the blast, officials said
MEXICO CITY, Mexico (Reuters)-- Mexico said on Tuesday it would tighten security at strategic installations after a shadowy leftist rebel group claimed responsibility for a rash of fuel pipeline explosions.

The four blasts shut down pipelines supplying natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil and gasoline to the domestic market.

But none of the blasts affected oil exports and no injuries were reported, according to state oil monopoly Pemex.

Merv Benson

07-11-2007, 09:10 PM

This could well be a leftest group, but I think they may have some new friends. When you consider Chavez's hostility toward Mexico and the US and his "strategic partnership" with Iran as well as bringing in the new central American leftists into that partnership, it is very possible that this is an indirect attack on the US energy supply by two countries who want to drive up the cost of oil. Iran has certainly used proxies in the past to achieve its objectives and I would not rule out its involvement at this time. Since the US is Pemex's best customer, I think it would be a mistake to rule out the involvement of Iran and Venezuela, especially on the funding end.

marct

07-11-2007, 09:20 PM

Hi Merv,

This could well be a leftest group, but I think they may have some new friends. .... Since the US is Pemex's best customer, I think it would be a mistake to rule out the involvement of Iran and Venezuela, especially on the funding end.

Hmmm, possible, but there is also the interesting note that there were no casualties. That is a little closer to the other types of popular leftist uprisings, eg the Zapatistas. The money may be filtering in, but I suspect that it is purely a marriage of convenience if it exists.

Marc

Bill Moore

07-11-2007, 10:57 PM

Merv,

In today's world it is easy for numerous groups with different agendas to network and support each other where there are common points of interest, or a profit to be made. Unfortunately with our current myopic view of strategic threats to the U.S., if you're not an Islamist you just don't make the list, no matter how hard you try (sorry North Korea). So what do we do, we automatically draw illogical links to Islamists, so we can draw attention to a problem. I think our nation's leaders have led much of America into a dangerous group think dynamic, where we're all extremely paranoid, thus we see the evil hand of Al Qaeda or Iran everywhere. What makes it worse is in most cases it "could" always be true to some degree, so it is hard to disprove. Sort of like WMD in Iraq, or AQ ties to Iraq, prior to our 2003 launch of OIF. I remain amused why educated men (and women) cannot collectively think rationally.

I think a communist insurgency in Mexico (without any Islamist influence) is a threat to our national interests on a number of levels. If it spreads (others were relatively easily defeated/suppressed) it could lead to increased legal and illegal migration, humanitarian issues, a hostile, or least not friendly gov on our southern border, etc. It is way to soon to make any claims like this, because this movement could be a flash in the pan, but the point is we have to look at all potential threats to U.S. interests, not just Islamists (which I know wasn't your point).

Bill

Jedburgh

07-12-2007, 01:44 PM

...I have no idea what the return on investment was from this attack yet, and we probably never will get accurate figures, but it should be a few million dollars worth of bang for the buck. Not only is there lost production, damage to the pipeline that needs repaired, but a huge investment in deploying security forces in an attempt to secure the pipeline.....
Gas pipeline attack in Mexico forces factories to shut down (http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/07/11/mexico.gas.ap/index.html)

....At least a dozen companies including Honda Motor Co., Kellogg Co.'s, The Hershey Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Grupo Modelo SA were forced to suspend or scale back operations because of the lack of natural gas, the daily newspaper Excelsior reported. They said they faced millions of dollars in losses.

Vitro SAB, a Mexican company that makes glass containers, said the shutdown of two plants would cost it about $800,000 a day. Vitro said in a statement that it was increasing production at other plants in Mexico to minimize effects on customers.

Total business losses were being estimated at more than 70 million pesos ($6.4 million) a day, Excelsior reported, citing unidentified sources. The association representing Mexican industry said Wednesday it was looking into the extent of the explosions' financial impact....

Jedburgh

07-25-2007, 01:47 PM

Additional details in the 25 Jul 07 Miami Herald:

Mexican bombers also hit crude oil pipeline (http://www.miamiherald.com/579/story/181292.html)

Saboteurs who blew up natural gas pipelines that shut down one of Mexico's main industrial regions earlier this month also crippled an important crude oil pipeline in an operation that indicated extensive knowledge of Mexico's energy infrastructure, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

Not only were oil and natural gas pipelines targeted, but the bombers also knew enough about energy installations to destroy the shutoff valves along several pipelines that allow for the wide national distribution of oil and natural gas....

...And the bombers knew which side of the valve they should strike, ensuring that crude oil didn't flow to a nearby refinery and that natural gas didn't flow to foreign and Mexican manufacturers in the central Bajio region....

Jedburgh

07-26-2007, 03:12 PM

Here is the full-text translation of the bad guys' communique issued after the attack:

To whom it may concern:

With this communiqué, our party is able to communicate with the media and our people in the state of Guanajuato regarding our political position concerning the PEMEX pipeline explosions.

We express our appreciation in advance for your attention.

To the people of Mexico.

To the people of Guanajuato.

To the national and international media.

To the non-governmental groups who defend human rights.

Brothers, sisters, comrades!

In the northern part of the country, nature has been very benevolent with us; in Cadereyta a lightning bolt struck a deposit belonging to PEMEX; here in Guanajuato, the old pipe lines have not been maintained; this compounding with a “puncture” made to extract gas caused a loss of pressure resulting in several explosions; 7 these events could be left alone, we could remain quiet, and continue listening to the absurdities offered by the authorities but, the people deserve to know the truth. This is the truth and our motives.

In compliance with the central committee of our party and with the commanders of our army, we put into play the following military action: The orders for a national campaign to scourge the interests of the oligarchy and of this illegitimate government have been put into motion.

Three squads (platoons) comprised of urban and rural units from the Francisco Javier Mina detachment counting on support from people’s militias from all over the state have carried out attacks with surgical precision by placing eight explosive charges into the PEMEX lines located in Celaya, Salamanca, Valle de Santiago, Guanajuato and into the cross section valve of Coroneo (Queretaro) all done simultaneously at one o’clock on the mornings of July 5 and 10.

We are letting our people know that the attacks/harassments will not cease until the governments of Felipe Calderon and Ulises Ruiz release our companions Edmundo Reyes Amaya, Raymundo Rivera Bravo, and Gabriel Alberto Cruz Sanchez, held – disappeared since May 25 in Oaxaca.

We are informing our central committee and our commanding general that all who follow this leadership are able and in combat position and awaiting your orders. We await orders!

For the immediate release of our companions!

For the release of all our detained – disappeared!

Jedburgh

09-13-2007, 02:16 PM

ISN Security Watch, 13 Sep 07: Mexican Bombings Highlight Poor Intel (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=18112)

Eleven bombs exploded in the early morning hours of 10 September, destroying gas pipelines operated by Mexican state-run energy company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) in the state of Veracruz. Operations of hundreds of companies in at least 10 Mexican states are still offline, collectively costing the Mexican economy over US$200 million and leaving idle some 10,000 Mexican workers.

It is the third bomb attack in as many months orchestrated by the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), a guerrilla group many believed until 10 September to be little more than an under-funded gathering of peasants from Oaxaca.

Some facts have solidified. The EPR has the sophistication to cause significant damage to selected targets and will continue its campaign until demands are met. After the second bombing, which shut down Pemex operations in Guanajuato and Queretaro in July, this first theory was forwarded as a strong one. It is now considered a fact. Second, the Mexican intelligence system is not prepared to deal with this domestic threat.....

Jedburgh

09-14-2007, 12:25 PM

...this 13 Sep 07 EIU Briefing talks to Bill's point about "return on investment" for those who carried out this most recent attack:

Pipeline Bombs: Mexico's Gas Infrastructure Comes Under Attack (http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9804290)

....The blasts forced some 20,000 people to flee their homes, and the disruption in domestic oil and gas supplies (exports reportedly were not affected) caused numerous businesses to shut down or reduce their operations. Business groups estimate losses of at least US$90m. Some 60% of the country’s steel industry production has been halted, and two major automotive plants are crippled. As many as 2,500 companies in 10 states are reported to have been affected.

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will millions of dollars per day in lost gas sales and will have to spend millions more to repair the damaged infrastructure. This comes at a time when Pemex is already under strain because of a decline in revenue and output from its aging oil fields. Pemex officials are aiming to repair the pipelines and get production back on line by September 17th. Yet Pemex’s financial constraints could prevent it from making the necessary investments in security at its installations. In fact, officials admit that they cannot fully protect the country’s extensive pipeline network and other infrastructure from future attacks.

Future losses for Pemex would not only hit domestic supplies, but also potentially export revenue as well as fiscal income. Tax payments made by Pemex account for some 40% of the federal government’s tax take.....

Jedburgh

09-26-2007, 09:43 PM

NYT, 26 Sep 07: With Bombings, Mexican Rebels Escalate Their Fight (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/26/world/americas/26rebels.html?ei=5088&en=aa2280466c31c4bf&ex=1348459200&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=print)

....In all three attacks, the bombers filled fire extinguishers with a mixture of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil, then detonated them with plastic explosives wired to digital watches and batteries.

The power of the bombs and the logistical skill in setting them off at the same time took many top officials here by surprise. Before the blasts, the Popular Revolutionary Army was considered a moribund group that had peaked in 1996 and then splintered into several smaller groups....

....The Popular Revolutionary Army has deep roots in Oaxaca, having been founded there in 1994 when 14 small insurgent groups banded together. The core leadership came from an extremist Marxist organization known by the acronym Procup, the Spanish initials for the Clandestine Revolutionary Workers’ Party-Union of the People.....

JJackson

09-26-2007, 11:29 PM

Obviously no way of knowing who - if anyone - gave them support or training but were I to guess I would go for FARC. A good geographical and ideological match. The quote below is an extract from an interview with a former UC-ELN fighter taken from the linked Human Rights Watch report.

We had lessons in the use of explosives, and they gave us a manual on how to use them. Any type of cylinder can be used for the bombs........ we put in anfo [ammonium nitrate and fuel oil] explosive.

http://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/colombia0903/11.htm

pcmfr

09-26-2007, 11:59 PM

Wonder how long until they start going after nuclear targets...

http://www.geocritical.com/gc/Portals/0/Mexico%20Terrorism%20Suppliers%20CISC%20Slice.gif

sandman

10-05-2007, 02:16 PM

While it is likely that Marxist paramilitary groups are responsible for these pipeline attacks, we should not forget that the stovepipe structure of the Mexican politico-industrial powerbase fosters internecine and revenge attacks within all levels of Mexican society. Family history and family connections count for everything in Mexico’s social infrastructure. Recently while in Mexico working for an American client I was privileged to witness this process first hand. A Mexican industrial family (with strong ties to Pemex coincidently) had practiced what I would have termed ‘embezzlement’ (when I mentioned this I was told that in Mexico things were done differently than in the U.S.). The small businessmen who were the object of this ‘redistribution’ of funds were out several tens of thousands of dollars and were more than just a little upset. At the time they were intent on using whatever means they could to get redress of the situation. I was never aware at anytime that the ‘debtees’ were of a Marxist temperament in fact I found quite the opposite, they were small entrepreneurs trying to build businesses of their own and were fed-up with having their collective chains jerked over money that was owed to them. As I understand it, the issues were eventually resolved and as merely a spectator dining with the elite, I was able to steer clear of the issues except as academic discussion. My point here is, that this consortium of small businessmen were prepared to use industrial violence to get a solution to their problem and political positions were not the issue.

Eden

05-07-2008, 04:07 PM

I have recently been catching up on the bad news in Mexico, with drug cartels running what appears to be a mini-insurgency against the government, which is employing the military in an effort to suppress the violence. All of which is spilling out in the border area. I was hoping some experts - I am not one concerning our southern neighbor - could weigh in with their judgments on the seriousness of the situation. Are we watching a new Columbia or Peru on our doorstep?

bourbon

05-07-2008, 05:32 PM

Well, the problem I see with Colombia and Peru analogy is political factor. Sure there are irredentist movements, but I am not sure they are connected to the cartels. It would seem FARC and Sendero are more concerned about coke profits then revolution these days, traded Mao for Milton Friedman. Devolving from guerrillas into illicit businesses, that seems to be the trend for alot of groups like these.

The cartels are already illicit businesses making generous fortunes, it is hard to see how they would morph into something else. The concept of "narco nationalism" lingers, but if anything this is accepted by the U.S. government. The $80 billion or so in drug cash that flows from the U.S. to Mexico (plus around $20 billion in remittances from legal and illegal immigrants also) is probably 30-45% of normal trade between us. Those hard currency flows into Mexico are larger than any foreign aid program we could muster together, and probably more effective, so for the sake of not having a failed state below us, its is grudgingly accepted.

The surplus of violence of late is because of power struggles between the cartels over the most important corridors (for both import from Latin America, and export north). This power struggle has been going on since the market hegemon, Amado Carrillo, died in 1997. It seems the Mexican government pursuing a strategy of letting no market leader emerge (or protecting their own position?), trying to assure a balance of power between the cartels and letting them duke it out. The Mexican government has been notable lately in seeking to deny sanctuary as part of their strategy. So thats why we are seeing shoot outs in nice neighborhoods lately.

So thats why I don't like the Peru/Colombia analogy. This not to say it will be incredibly interesting what happens to a fifty mile strip on both sides of the border, but my I see at as more some mutant globalization bastard child than the next Peru of Colombia.

Ken White

05-07-2008, 05:35 PM

Check the LINK (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR2008050602566.html?hpid=sec-world).

Tom Odom

05-07-2008, 05:50 PM

Check the LINK (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR2008050602566.html?hpid=sec-world).

"We're offering you a good salary, food and medical care for your families," it said in block letters.

But there was a catch: The employer was Los Zetas, a notorious Gulf cartel hit squad formed by elite Mexican army deserters. The group even included a phone number for job seekers that linked to a voice mailbox.

A "new" form of contracting? :wry:

Ken White

05-07-2008, 06:27 PM

medical care, looks like they're ahead of us on some log issues... :D

Tom Odom

05-07-2008, 07:36 PM

medical care, looks like they're ahead of us on some log issues... :D

I mean you just gotta love the phrase "elite Mexican Army deserters"

Folks thought the Wild Bunch (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wild_Bunch)was just a movie...:wry:

And my Mama used to date LQ Jones (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L.Q._Jones)...:cool:

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 01:36 PM

From the Economist (http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11089517)

The Zapatista rebellion raised Mexicans' awareness of race discrimination. But this remains a problem. The majority of the population in every one of Mexico's 100 poorest municipalities is of indigenous descent, says Mr Abreu. One policy designed to help the poor Indians is bilingual education. But the flaws of the public education system are magnified in the south. In practice, the teachers' union rather than the government controls teaching appointments; the union sometimes appoints a teacher who speaks a different indigenous language to his pupils, according to Mr Abreu. A typical adult in the south has only six years of schooling; the corresponding figure in northern Mexico is 8.1 and 9.7 in Mexico City. And those years of schooling are not full years: local education officials report that in urban areas in the south an average teacher spends only 110 of the notional 200 days of the academic year actually in the classroom. The record is even worse in rural areas.

The big wealth gap polarises politics, too. In the north, Mr Calderón won 43% of the vote in the 2006 presidential election, while only 24% went to Andrés Manuel López Obrador, his populist rival. But in the south Mr López Obrador won 40%, and Mr Calderón 27%. This regional divide contributes to political gridlock. The right plays to its electoral strength in the north, and the left to its constituents in the south, squeezing out opportunities for compromise and progress. The latest example concerns a desperately needed reform to liberalise Mexico's declining state-owned oil industry, opposed by Mr López Obrador. The south instinctively favours big government and mistrusts private initiative.

With each passing year, the socio-economic gap widens. Monterrey, Mexico's northern industrial capital, is starting to resemble south Texas. Many parts of the south still look like a northern extension of Guatemala. But unless the government shows a greater ability and willingness to tackle its problems, the south will not just remain stuck in its poverty trap but risks handicapping the country as a whole.

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 01:41 PM

Again from the Economist (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11294648)

AFTER the 1994 peso crash, the risk of Mexico's difficulties spilling over into America was considered so great that the Clinton administration helped bail out its southern neighbour. In the first quarter of 2008, the boot was on the other foot, though the scale was entirely different. Now it was the turn of Banamex, one of Mexico's two largest banks, to help out Citigroup, its crisis-stricken parent. Banamex provided $453m of the $1.1 billion Citi earned in net income from its overseas operations between January and March (Citi lost $5.1 billion overall). You could almost hear Vikram Pandit, Citi's new chief, mutter “Gracias, compadre.”

Yet Banamex was not even the best-performing of the Mexican banks. Of Mexico's five largest financial institutions (which control three-quarters of the market and also include Bancomer, Santander, HSBC and Banorte), it was the only one that did not show a big rise in year-on-year profits in the first quarter. The performance of the banks was impressive for two reasons. Firstly, Mexico has one of the most open banking systems in the world; two of its top five banks are Spanish-owned, one is American, one British, and only one is Mexican. Yet the crisis in global banking has barely ruffled it. Also, Mexico's economy is usually more exposed than almost any other to a slowdown in America. As Alejandro Valenzuela, boss of Banorte, delicately puts it: “Decoupling is the wrong word, but there is now a certain shield.”

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 01:45 PM

And again from the Economist (http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11325013)

The difficulties facing the reform proposal have dampened expectations that Mexico’s troubled oil sector will get the investment boost that it needs any time soon. Pemex is chronically underinvested, and short of both technical capabilities and cash (since it funds some 40% of the federal fiscal budget). Oil production has been declining in recent years, dropping 5.3% in 2007 and a total of 10% since its peak in 2004. Crude exports, too, have been decreasing. And besides importing petrol, Mexico is a net importer of natural gas from the US.

To reverse this course, Pemex needs to explore for new reserves in its deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico, but lacks the financial resources and expertise to do so. Mr Calderón’s package held little promise that this situation change dramatically, but was seen as a step forward and as setting a path for more reforms sometime in the future. Yet if the “lite” reforms cannot be approved, then the oil industry definitely is set to further decline. According to Pemex’s chief executive officer, Jesús Reyes Heroles, “there is no Plan B”.

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 01:51 PM

From the EIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Mexico/Background.html)

In 2006, Mexico was the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, and the second largest in the Western Hemisphere (behind the United States). State-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) holds a monopoly on oil production in the country and is one of the largest oil companies in the world. However, oil production in the country has begun to decrease, as production at the giant Cantarell field declines. The oil sector is a crucial component of Mexico’s economy: while its relative importance to the general Mexican economy has declined, the oil sector still generates over 10 percent of the country’s export earnings. More importantly, the government relies upon earnings from the oil industry (including taxes and direct payments from Pemex) for one-third of total government revenues. Therefore, any decline in production at Pemex has a direct effect upon the country’s overall fiscal balance.

2006 Production numbers (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Mexico/Profile.html) for oil were 3,707 thousand barrels per day

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 02:06 PM

From the US DOS (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35749.htm)

Mexico's armed forces number about 225,000. The army makes up about three-fourths of that total. The navy is a completely autonomous cabinet agency and as such there is no joint chief of staff position. Principal military roles include national defense, narcotics control, and civic action assignments such as search and rescue and disaster relief. Mexican military and naval forces provided disaster assistance to the U.S. in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which struck Louisiana and Mississippi in August 2005.

President Calderon has made public security a focus of his presidency and, in addition to passing judicial reform legislation, has launched aggressive operations against organized crime and drug traffickers in several states, raised pay for the military, and replaced numerous corrupt federal police officers. He has also, when necessary, been willing to deploy the Mexican Army in the states where the cartels are dominant.

Surferbeetle

05-08-2008, 02:10 PM

Posted to the FAS (http://ftp.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34215.pdf) website

Mexico, a major drug producing and transit country, is the main foreign supplier
of marijuana and a major supplier of methamphetamine to the United States.
Although Mexico accounts for only a small share of worldwide heroin production,
it supplies a large share of heroin consumed in the United States. An estimated 90%
of cocaine entering the United States transits Mexico. Violence in the border region
has affected U.S. citizens. More than 60 Americans have been kidnaped in Nuevo
Laredo, and in July 2007, Mexican drug cartels reportedly threatened to kill a U.S.
journalist covering drug violence in the border region. The United States and Mexico
are reportedly negotiating a new counternarcotics initiative.
Although Mexican drug cartels, or drug trafficking organizations, have existed
for quite some time, they have become more powerful since the demise of
Colombia's Cali and Medellín cartels in the 1990s. Mexican drug cartels now
dominate the wholesale illicit drug market in the United States. Arrests of key cartel
leaders, particularly in the Tijuana and Gulf cartels, have led to increasing drug
violence as cartels fight for control of the trafficking routes into the United States.
The Gulf and Sinaloa cartels reportedly use personal "enforcer gangs" to perpetuate
violence and intimidate Mexican citizens and public officials. Mexican President
Felipe Calderón has called drug violence a threat to the Mexican state.
This report provides an overview of: Mexican cartels and their operations,
including the nature of cartel ties to gangs such as the Mara Salvatrucha; Mexican
cartel drug production in the United States; and the presence of Mexican cartel cells
in the United States. Mexican cartels allegedly have used their vast financial
resources to corrupt Mexican public officials who either turn a blind eye to cartel
activities or work directly for them. Since 2005, the Mexican government has made
numerous efforts to purge corrupt police. In December 2006, President Felipe
Calderón launched operations against the cartels in 9 of Mexico's 32 states. He has
pledged to use extradition as a tool against drug traffickers, and sent 64 criminals to
the United States as of August 2007, including the alleged head of the Gulf Cartel.

jonSlack

05-09-2008, 08:25 PM

WaPo - Mexico's Police Chief Is Killed In Brazen Attack by Gunmen (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/08/AR2008050803242.html)

MEXICO CITY, May 8 -- Gunmen assassinated Mexico's national police chief Thursday, blasting him with nine bullets outside his home in the capital and dealing a significant setback to the government's campaign against drug cartels.

Edgar Eusebio Millán Gómez, the public face of Mexico's offensive against drug cartels, became the highest-ranking law enforcement official to be killed since the launch of the effort 17 months ago. The assassination could give new confidence to drug cartels blamed for 6,000 killings in the past 2 1/2 years, and embolden other anti-government groups in this violence-plagued nation.

Ron Humphrey

05-10-2008, 03:07 AM

WaPo - Mexico's Police Chief Is Killed In Brazen Attack by Gunmen (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/08/AR2008050803242.html)

The assassination could give new confidence to drug cartels blamed for 6,000 killings in the past 2 1/2 years, and embolden other anti-government groups in this violence-plagued nation.

It could also give someone very good reasons for asking for the type of help that doesn't require bench warrants. This could get really bad really quick.

slapout9

05-10-2008, 02:50 PM

To put this in an American perspective. It would be the equivalent of shooting the head of our FBI...IMHO.

Credence Clearwater Revival-Bad Moon Rising
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2w5kffJnq8

AdamG

05-13-2008, 11:47 AM

See also:
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=46229&postcount=11

Wonder what'd happen if all the little groups in Mexico started working togethor?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1232624120080512
MEXICO CITY, May 12 (Reuters) - A Mexican rebel group that bombed energy pipelines last year rejected on Monday direct talks with the government but left open the possibility of negotiations through a group of mediators.

And from the RUMINT mill this morning:
http://www.borderfirereport.net/michael-webster/mexicos-national-security-cabinet-expected-to-declare-a-state-of-emergency.html
Mexico's National Security Cabinet is holding an emergency meeting and is expected to declare a state of Michael Websteremergency. They will also discuss President Felipe Caldron’s current strategies against the Mexican war on drug cartels. Analysts say they expect the death toll nation wide among the security forces to climb, because the traffickers, under assault both from the government and rival gangs, believe they have nothing to lose.

http://www.nndb.com/people/121/000118764/alfonso-bedoya-1-sized.jpg

We got no steekin' batches lef' around here!

slapout9

05-14-2008, 02:33 AM

As many of you know I am a big fan of Colonel Rex Applegate...so what does that have to do with Mexico. Alot. I have been searching for this article for awhile and I finally found it. Rex was warning back in 1995 how dire the situation in Mexico was becoming. It fell largely on deaf ears. After WW2 he spent many years in Central and South America, Mexico as Law and Order consultant :wry: and developed great insight into the problems down there. Enjoy the article

http://www.cs.uwaterloo.ca/~alopez-o/politics/timebomb.html

Tacitus

05-16-2008, 08:34 PM

I recently saw the film "The Wild Bunch" again. I had not seen it in 20 years, so I'd forgotten quite a bit of it. Great film. Lots of "small war" issues and angles there.

Another interesting Mexico film from Peckinpah is his "Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Garcia". It starts out as though it is from a different time long ago, but then you realize it is in modern times. This is a polarizing movie, either you really enjoy it, or can't stand it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bring_Me_the_Head_of_Alfredo_Garcia
Warren Oates is the lead actor in this one.

AdamG

05-19-2008, 11:54 AM

Travel Alert
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of Consular Affairs

This information is current as of today, Mon May 19 2008 07:48:05 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time).

Mexico

April 14, 2008

This Travel Alert updates information for U.S. citizens on security situations in Mexico that may affect their activities while in that country. This supersedes the Travel Alert for Mexico dated October 24, 2007, and expires on October 15, 2008.

Violence Along The U.S.-Mexico Border
-------------------------------------

Violent criminal activity fueled by a war between criminal organizations struggling for control of the lucrative narcotics trade continues along the U.S.-Mexico border. Attacks are aimed primarily at members of drug trafficking organizations, Mexican police forces, criminal justice officials, and journalists. However, foreign visitors and residents, including Americans, have been among the victims of homicides and kidnappings in the border region. In its effort to combat violence, the government of Mexico has deployed military troops in various parts of the country. U.S. citizens are urged to cooperate with official checkpoints when traveling on Mexican highways.

Recent Mexican army and police force conflicts with heavily-armed narcotics cartels have escalated to levels equivalent to military small-unit combat and have included use of machine guns and fragmentation grenades.

More on the unraveling situation at
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_3028.html

Looks like the plan is to cut off the cash at the lower levels.

Soldiers, Police Occupy Two Mexican Cities

Mexico, May 14 (Prensa Latina) Over 2,700 strongly-armed soldiers, sailors and policemen occupied Wednesday the cities of Culiacan and Novolato, in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, to stop the wave of violence gripping this country.

*

The contingent is made up of 1,433 soldiers, 500 sailors, 740 federal policemen and 50 agents of the Republic's Public Prosecution Office, who came in armored vehicles and airplanes to support the two municipalities.

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B5C0B23B5-1618-48C2-8CD2-BC201FF35B31%7D&language=EN

Mexico, May 15 (Prensa Latina) The Mexican army, backed up by the police, closed down 26 money exchange places in the state of Sinaloa, for suspected links with drug trafficking, according to reports from Culiacan.
http://www.plenglish.com/Article.asp?ID=%7B2B8A3DAD-6057-4FCF-B13D-331EBB8DBA19%7D&language=EN

Meanwhile, the American public gets fed agenda-driven drivel like this
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=4711745

HE Frag grenades, HE rounds for M203s and M60s don't come off of American gunstore shelves but I'll bet the serial numbers can be traced back to the Mexican Army.

Surferbeetle

05-26-2008, 06:36 PM

From Westhawk (http://westhawk.blogspot.com/)

Just as in Iraq, Afghanistan, and so many other countries where civic culture has been suspended (including many times in American history, too), President Calderon has turned to the army to perform basic policing. In these situations, local police are simply too vulnerable to intimidation and subornation.

From a May 2008 FPRI (http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200805.grayson.loszetas.html) report

The several dozen drug bands that operate in Mexico furnish the lion’s share of cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamines that enter this country. They also accounted for more than 4,500 deaths during the past two years—with the figure spiraling to 961 by April 18 of this year. These facts have spurred the White House to urge furnishing $500 million as the first tranche of a $1.4 billion, multiyear security cooperation package. This “Merida Initiative” would include aircraft, software, hardware, communications technology, training to strengthen the judicial system, intelligence instruction, and advice on vetting new law-enforcement personnel (ubiquitous police corruption is the Achilles’ heel of Mexico’s battle against the production and transport of drugs). A reluctant U.S. Congress, which is now pondering the program, may not act until after the November election.

slapout9

06-18-2008, 12:15 PM

Just found this paper at the AWC. Haven't finished it but so far pretty. Warns that we are not paying enough attention to friends South of the Border.

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IntelligenceScotomas_ByAlexander.pdf

Moderator's Note: See Post 5 link has changed.

bismark17

06-19-2008, 06:10 AM

Thanks for posting this. I have always been interested in this author. To say that he has a background in R&D is a bit of an understatement. I would love to see a biography on him that touches on some of the more esoteric sides of his Army career.

The problems in Mexico are a major emerging threat to even local L.E. I can't believe there isn't more attention being paid to it in the major media. Its just a matter of time before it spills over on our side.

I will not be surprised if 10 years from now a book is written along the lines of, Hunting Pablo, that tells the story of our assets assisting with trying to take out the Zetas and some of the other major actors. However, unlike Columbia this problem is right along our border and we have to expect some blowback from those types of operations.

slapout9

06-19-2008, 11:52 AM

Hi bismark, Joseph Wambagh wrote such a book as fiction. Can not remember the title:confused: it was about some border patrol officers that form a small unit and cross over into Mexico and....take care of business:)

bismark17

06-19-2008, 04:08 PM

That was a great book. I think it was called, Lines and Shadows. Bitter sweet ending as are the endings of most ad hoc law enforcement units that are formed due to exigent circumstances. They are heroes when they are fixing the problem and villified once the threat is gone.

jonSlack

07-02-2008, 12:24 PM

James Verini - Arming the Drug Wars (http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/international-news/portfolio/2008/06/16/Examining-the-US-Mexico-Gun-Trade) from Portfolio Magazine.

Alfredo Beltrán Leyva was arrested on January 21 in Culiacán, capital of the Mexican state of Sinaloa. The circumstances of his arrest lived up to his high standing in Mexico’s criminal underground, caught, as he was, driving a BMW S.U.V. in which federal police found eight pistols, an AK-47 assault rifle, and two suitcases containing about $900,000 in cash. Until his arrest, Beltrán Leyva was a top lieutenant in what may be the most profitable and far-reaching drug-trafficking organization in the world: the Sinaloa cartel, presided over by Joaquín Guzmán, often referred to as Mexico’s Pablo Escobar. Beltrán Leyva—known as El Mochomo after a vicious night-crawling ant—is thought by police to have been a Guzmán favorite, carrying out multiple murders while moving tons of drugs and millions of dollars for him.

The day after Beltrán Leyva’s arrest, federal police raided two mansions in Mexico City. They nabbed 11 members of his hit squad and discovered an arsenal including dozens of high-powered rifles, fragmentation grenades, thousands of rounds of ammunition, and Kevlar vests stamped FEDA. The police believe this stands for Fuerzas Especiales de Arturo, or Arturo’s Special Forces, a reference to Alfredo’s older brother, who ranks even higher in Guzmán’s organization.

SWJED

08-19-2008, 06:38 AM

State of Siege: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/08/state-of-siege-mexicos-crimina/)
By John P. Sullivan and Adam Elkus, Small Wars Journal

State of Siege: Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (Full PDF Article) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-temp/84-sullivan.pdf)

Mexico is under siege, and the barbarians are dangerously close to breaching the castle walls. Responding to President Felipe Calderon’s latest drug crackdown, an army of drug cartels has launched a vicious criminal insurgency against the Mexican state. So far, the conflict has killed over 1,400 Mexicans, 500 of them law enforcement officers. No longer fearing retaliation, cartel gunmen assault soldier and high-ranking federale alike. The criminal threat is not only a threat to public order but to the state. A top-ranking Mexican intelligence official has noted in interview that criminal gangs pose a national security threat to the integrity of the state. Cartels are even trying to take over the Mexican Congress by funding political campaigns, CISEN director Guillero Valdes alleged. Should Mexico’s gangs cement their hold further, Mexico could possibly become a criminal-state largely controlled by narco-gangs. This is not just a threat to Mexico, however.

As the intensity of the violence grows, so does the possibility that Tijuana and Juarez’s high-intensity street warfare will migrate north. Recent cartel warfare in Arizona indicates that America has become a battleground for drug cartels clashing over territory, putting American citizens and law enforcement at risk. But the northward migration of cartel warfare is not the worst consequence of Mexico’s criminal insurgency. A lawless Mexico will be a perfect staging ground for terrorists seeking to operate in North America. American policymakers must act to protect our southern flank...

Graycap

08-19-2008, 09:37 AM

Very good article. I am italian: drug cartels and organized crime are part of our everyday life. In my opinion this is the form of contemporary insurgency more difficult to counter and with the most dangerous long term consequences. I think that it is ththis kind of situation that could be really labeled as 4GW.

It's difficult to understand how this form of attack to the state slowly erodes any form of possible reaction. Mexico situation could be a warning for my country. In the the years between 1980 and 1995 the situation was growing toward something similar at Mexico. The Italian Army deployed 9000 soldiers in less than 20 days in Sicily in 1992. They remained deployed for more than six years (in declining numbers). Other thousand men were employed in Naples, Calabria and Sardinia. Sometimes with the trick to call their deployment "exercises in territorial control". A real counter insurgency scenario. But without classic insurgency.

As usual in the counterinsurgy reality the result has been debatable.

In my opinion there is no way out without a different approach with drug use/abuse in our society. But this is way OT...

Graycap

Cavguy

08-21-2008, 05:37 AM

Reading the article's recommendations - I haven't seen Mexico being willing to ask for or receive help along the lines of Colombia. I would suspect US troop deployments in Mexico would be a no-go given our history, even an SF heavy deployment like Colombia.

Containment may be a better approach.

jonSlack

09-09-2008, 11:57 PM

LA Times - In Mexico, a police victory against smuggling brings deadly revenge (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-me-soriano7-2008sep07,0,431358.story?page=1&track=rss)

Juan Jose Soriano, deputy commander of the Tecate Police Department, helped U.S. authorities find a drug-smuggling tunnel. The next morning, gunmen shot him 45 times in his bedroom.

AdamG

10-17-2008, 10:03 AM

..south of the border, while the rest of the country remains engrossed in the Madonna/Guy Ritchie divorce. :wry:

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_10741408

JUAREZ -- A shootout with the Mexican army left two men dead and another in custody late Wednesday in Juárez as the violence continued in the city.

http://www.kveo.com/news/local/31147224.html

A gun battle, south of the border in Mexico involving grenades and assault weapons, kills and wounds several. These are pictures from the scene, courtesy of Mexican newspaper, "Expreso Matamoros". As you can see military officials around a home and on the streets, heavily-armed.
Our News Center 23's Kenny Lopez was at the scene, where it all happened, and he now has the story from the Browsnville/Matamoros International Bridge.

See also
http://www.newschannel5.tv/2008/10/16/999900/Gun-Battle-in-Matamoros

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/world/americas/14briefs-AMERICANCONS_BRF.html?ref=world

Two men attacked the United States Consulate in the northern Mexican city of Monterrey early Sunday morning, but damage was minimal and no injuries were reported, the authorities said. One man fired at the office and another lofted a grenade that did not explode, officials said. The F.B.I. will lead an investigation into the attack. Although there were no immediate suspects, speculation fell on narcotics traffickers.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5grC5OXmm_ds82CdhNxG09udEFfHAD93RFO200
TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) — The U.S. State Department has added the border city of Nogales to its list of places in Mexico where American travelers should be wary because of increasing violence.
*
"Some recent Mexican army and police confrontations with drug cartels have taken on the characteristics of small-unit combat, with cartels employing automatic weapons and, on occasion, grenades," the alert said.

AdamG

10-24-2008, 12:45 PM

MEXICO CITY, Mexico (CNN) -- Ten suspected drug dealers have been killed in a gunbattle with police in northern Mexico across the border from Arizona, authorities said.

Four officers were wounded in the battle Thursday in Nogales in the state of Sonora, according to Inspector David Palomares of the federal police. Police said they detained one suspect as he tried to flee.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/10/24/mexico.drug.killing/

ROSARITO BEACH, Mexico, Oct. 22 (UPI) -- Mexican officials say federal army troops have arrived in Baja California to battle a relentless wave of drug gang slayings in the state's border towns.

The troops took up positions Tuesday in Rosarito Beach, Mexico, to help local police curb the violence, which by some estimates has claimed at least 140 lives since Sept. 26 in and around Tijuana, The San Diego Times-Union reported.

Rosarito Beach officials said they have asked the federal government for even more assistance. Mexican military officials wouldn't say exactly how many troops have been deployed to the state, but at least 50 soldiers had arrived by noon Tuesday, the newspaper said.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/10/22/Mexican_army_sent_to_quell_gang_violence/UPI-53271224697166/

AdamG

11-01-2008, 10:05 AM

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 10.31.2008

Seven armed Mexican soldiers aboard a military Humvee were taken into custody early Friday morning on the Arizona side of the U.S-Mexican border near Yuma in what officials called *coff, coff* an unintentional and non-hostile incursion.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/265093.php

Sounds like another delivery escort got caught. Meanwhile, on the strategic side...

http://www.haber27.com/news_detail.php?id=15275

Two senior officials in a major Mexican anti-narcotics agency have been charged with passing information to a drug cartel in return for millions of dollars.

*
Even better, when US personnel are put at risk:

Mexican media also reported a protected witness has told authorities that he spied for the Beltran Leyvas on US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents while employed as a criminal investigator at the US Embassy in Mexico City.

DEA's intelligence chief Anthony Placido said he could not confirm that the embassy had been infiltrated, adding it was too early to pull out undercover agents for fear their identities may have been compromised, AFP reported.

AdamG

11-06-2008, 10:35 AM

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - A plane crash that killed Mexico's interior minister and closest ally, as well as his chief drug war adviser, does not appear to have been caused by sabotage, the government said on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE4A4APC20081106

MEXICO CITY: Mexican authorities announced Tuesday that they have charged three alleged drug hit men with terrorism for throwing grenades into crowds of Independence Day revelers, an unprecedented attack on civilians that killed eight people and wounded 106.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/11/04/news/LT-Mexico-Explosion.php

Concerns about money laundering have taken on new urgency in an age of global terrorism. After the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. government toughened the penalties for institutions with poor money laundering controls, affecting not only terrorists' assets, but those of drug traffickers, too. Investigators focused, however, on money flowing to terrorists through Islamic charities based in the United States and elsewhere. That approach played down the U.S. interest in drug trafficking and its financing in Latin America, according to Douglas Farah, author of "Blood From Stones: The Secret Financial Network of Terror" and an expert in the financial operations of criminal networks.

But authorities are seeing evidence that terrorist money and drug money can flow through the same channels.

"A pipeline has been created from South America to the United States, where drugs, people, weapons and cash are trafficked, and that could be used for any aim, even by subversive groups. The ideologies no longer matter -- only the money," Farah said. "The free flow of information and money has changed everything. Mexican, Colombian and Middle East terrorist groups are increasingly connected. The limits that existed before are blurring."

The U.S. State Department has denied that terrorist cells exist in Mexico. Nevertheless, in 2005 a British citizen, Amer Haykel, an alleged al-Qaeda member, was arrested in Baja California. According to a U.S. intelligence assessment provided by Winer, there is evidence of Islamist terrorist cells in Mexico, including a Hezbollah presence in the southern state of Chiapas.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801374.html

AdamG

11-08-2008, 04:30 PM

MEXICO CITY — The Mexican army on Friday announced that it has made the largest seizure of drug-cartel weapons in Mexico's history.

The cache of 540 rifles, 165 grenades, 500,000 rounds of ammunition and 14 sticks of TNT were seized on Thursday at a house in the city of Reynosa, across the border from McAllen, Texas, Mexican Assistant Attorney General Marisela Morales said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,449045,00.html

MEXICO CITY – Authorities on Friday captured the purported No. 2 figure in the paramilitary enforcement arm of the Gulf cartel that operates along the Texas-Mexico border.

Authorities display arms seized from a house in the Mexican city of Reynosa. The seizure was Mexico's largest ever involving organized crime. And the Mexican army announced Friday that it made the largest seizure of drug-cartel weapons in Mexico's history the day before.

They did not specifically say if the seizure and the arrest of Jaime González Duran of the Zetas were connected, although both occurred in Reynosa, Tamaulipas, across the border from McAllen, Texas. Mr. González Duran was detained after a shootout, officials said.

Officials also did not say whether the seizure of the weapons and the arrest of Mr. González Duran had any connection with an FBI intelligence report that warned the Gulf cartel was stockpiling high-powered weapons in Reynosa to prepare for possible confrontations with U.S. law enforcement.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/stories/DN-weapons_08int.ART.State.Edition1.4aab7b4.html

And another weapons count, in Spanishhttp://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/392094.historico-decomiso-de-armas.html

How Miami Vice: mostly AKs and ARs, with a few .50 caliber bolt rifles and a swanky gold Desert Eagle.

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//081108/481/e980c8c2f749467f8f38db3dd149aa6d/

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//081108/481/ef3d30783b654b41b540becaf35756ef/

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//081108/481/e41ff3c2e00a45fea6e48b36b32233c4/

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//081108/481/be1675cace9b433c9f731f1f2e87a31e/

Jedburgh

11-08-2008, 05:39 PM

Mexican DTOs have dominated arms smuggling across our southern border for years. Although they obtain them from across the SW, Texas is the most common state of origin for most of the weapons. The smuggling is facilitated by the DTOs' close links with certain prison and street gangs here in the US. However, the comment that they're stockpiling high-powered weapons in Reynosa to prepare for possible confrontations with U.S. law enforcement is pure speculation, not grounded in a hard, contextual assessment of the current situation.

The hard reality is that the DTOs' struggle for control of key smuggling corridors within Mexico continues to escalate, and they are busy arming their enforcers - Los Zetas (http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200805.grayson.loszetas.html), Los Zetillas, Los Halcones, Los Kaibiles, Los Negros, Los Chachos - for an offensive targeting rival cartels and Mexican authorities who currently control - or threaten their control - of these corridors.

SWJED

11-09-2008, 03:33 PM

Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency (http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/2008/11/06/mexicos-criminal-insurgency/) - John P. Sullivan and Adam Elkus, Defense and the National Interest

Grenades are thrown at popular gatherings. Mutilated corpses flood the morgues. Heavily armed gunmen blast police to shreds with high-powered automatic weapons. Just another day in Iraq or Afghanistan? No-all of the events described occur regularly in Mexico. Our southern neighbor is imploding under the weight of a criminal insurgency just as dangerous any crew of bomb-tossing jihadists–an insurgency that may soon envelop our borders.

Mexico has always struggled with crime and corruption, but its present troubles can be traced to the mid-90s downfall of the Colombian cartels. Those mega-cartels, epitomized by the excess of Pablo Escobar, directly threatened the Colombian state and lost. As nature abhors a vacuum, the gap was filled by Mexican drug cartels bolstered by gargantuan drug profits. These cartels burrowed into the superstructure of the Mexican state, corrupting the poorly paid civil servants and police officers that make up the Mexican bureaucracy. Those who refused to take a bribe earned a bullet to the brain for their scruples. The cartel evolution in political and financial affairs was matched by a rise in military power, as the narco-gangs built up a capable cadre of enforcers poached from the Mexican military’s Special Forces. These men, known as the Zetas, enabled the cartels to gain a tactical advantage against the poorly equipped Mexican local and state police.

Worst of all, the sheer size of the black economy–$40 billion as estimated by Stratfor’s George Friedman–strangles legitimate enterprise and concentrates power in the hands of a few narco-warlords. These criminal enterprises amass power and legitimacy as the Mexican state loses the trust of its citizens. As a result, Mexico’s periphery has become a lawless wasteland controlled largely by the drug cartels, but the disorder is rapidly spreading into the interior. In a cruel parody of the “ink-blot” strategy employed by counterinsurgents in Iraq, ungoverned spaces controlled by insurgents multiply as the territorial fabric of the Mexican state continues to dissolve...

bourbon

12-08-2008, 12:52 AM

Excellent interactive program and map at the LA Times: The Drug War at Our Doorstep (http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war)

The LAT has consistently had good coverage of the violence in Mexico. Another interesting resource is the blog Security in Latin America (http://www.samuellogan.blogspot.com/) by Samuel Logan (http://www.samuellogan.com/).

Graycap

12-08-2008, 11:59 AM

I don't want to steal the work from anyone :)

I would only post a link to a good article published by Col. Robert Killebrew in AFJ : Terror at the border

http://www.afji.com/2008/12/3801379

Well worth a read.

Graycap

bourbon

12-14-2008, 07:11 PM

The Next Disaster: Narco violence is exploding--just as oil prices are plunging and Mexico is bracing for a deep U.S. recession (http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/1222/073_print.html). Forbes, December 22, 2008.

The article surveys continued troubles in Mexico, they include:

Economic
- Mexico's GDP will slow to 1.5% growth this year, down from 3.2% in 2007. Projections for 2009 are between zero and 0.7%.

- 80% of Mexican exports go the U.S. where consumers are not buying. Effects are particularly concentrated in border region with U.S. due to maquiladora sectors. In Juarez 223,000 people work in the maquiladora sector, 22,000 have lost jobs there, most since August. Each maquiladora job supports four jobs in the city.

- Remittances from Mexicans living in the U.S. will be down roughly 10% to $21.6 billion for 2008.

- State coffers will by hard due to problems in oil sector. Pemex's is hit by the fall in oil prices and continued fall in output, as production is down to 2.8 million barrels a day from a 2004 peak of 3.3 million barrels. Much of this production drop attributed to rapid decline of the supergiant Cantarell field.

Upside - For now the banking system is well capitalized, with "no hint yet of a credit crunch."

Narcotics
- Narcoviolence pervades all segments of life in Mexico. The body count in Juarez is 1,110 for 2008, 200+ in the month of August.

- Narcocorruption has penetrated the highest levels of government. Cartels have reportedly employed Mexico's principal link to Interpol and its former senior drug czar.

- The article notes that Atlanta and NW Georgia have become have become the key East Coast distribution hub for the Gulf Cartel and lesser players. The narcotic flow north and bulk-cash transfer flow south is protected from internal graft and meddling by other underworld players through escalating levels of terror and violence.

Upside - Cocaine prices are up 27% in the U.S. since early 2007, while purity is down 16%.

Jedburgh

12-16-2008, 03:17 PM

Houston Chronicle, 15 Dec 08: Houston anti-kidnapping expert kidnapped in Mexico (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/6165791.html)

An American renowned as an anti-kidnap expert has himself been abducted in northern Mexico after several days of seminars in which he was teaching police and citizens how to deal with kidnappings.

Felix Batista, 55, is a senior consultant with ASI Global (http://www.asiglobalresponse.com/), a Houston-based firm that assists clients with security issues, including both preventing and resolving kidnappings. He was taken Wednesday evening outside a restaurant in the industrial city of Saltillo in the state of Coahuila, which borders Texas....

bourbon

12-19-2008, 02:39 PM

From the NYT's Annual Year in Ideas:

Imaginary Kidnappings (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/magazine/14Ideas-Section2-C-t-003.html), By BRENDAN I. KOERNER. The New York Times Magazine, December 12, 2008.

Kidnappings are a daily occurrence in Mexico. So when a resident of Monterrey or Puebla receives a phone call with news that his son or daughter has been snatched, he has every reason to believe the tale — especially if anguished screams are audible in the background. Terrified, the parent may readily obey the caller’s instructions to wire ransom money posthaste or leave a sack of jewelry in a nearby alley. Only later will the victim realize the truth: the abduction was a sham.

A Time magazine article (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1861296,00.html) on the Batista kidnapping:

In the same poll, 45% of Mexicans who have a phone line said they've been victims of telephone extortion, in which persons call a residence, claim they've abducted a family member and demand a ransom. Often the claims of abduction are false; but either way, because the fear of kidnapping is so high in Mexico, the callers usually get money.

This is not to imply Mr. Batista's kidnapping is imaginary, it is most certainly real. Just passing along a link.
My thoughts are with the Batista family.

Jedburgh

12-19-2008, 04:00 PM

In the same poll, 45% of Mexicans who have a phone line said they've been victims of telephone extortion, in which persons call a residence, claim they've abducted a family member and demand a ransom. Often the claims of abduction are false; but either way, because the fear of kidnapping is so high in Mexico, the callers usually get money.Telephone extortion of businesses in Mexico is common as well. Whether its an employee or management, the premise is the same. There have been a number of instances where the employee who is claimed to have been kidnapped are the ones who plan and profit (sometimes, and often only temporarily) from the extortion.

Mark O'Neill

12-20-2008, 09:56 AM

The title of this thread is hilarious, it wins my vote for the amateur sub-editorial title post of 08,

It really appeals to my aussie sense of humour.

Mark

Beelzebubalicious

12-20-2008, 06:46 PM

Hope he is released.

In terms of semantics, he is a kidnapping expert which means that if he is safely released, he will even be a better expert. Of course, his anti-kidnapping business may slip....

Tom Odom

12-20-2008, 07:00 PM

if "you are doing a great job, Browny" can then sell himself as a disaster consultant, then this guy can do the same :rolleyes:

FEMA chief relieved of Katrina duties (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9266986/)

Faces In The News
Ex-FEMA Chief To Do Disaster Consulting (http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/25/fema-brown-katrina-cx_vc_1125autofacescan03.html)

Beelzebubalicious

12-21-2008, 05:20 AM

Well, his management of FEMA and the Katrina response was a disaster, so technically, he may be the world's greatest experts on disasters.

Tom Odom

12-21-2008, 02:32 PM

Well, his management of FEMA and the Katrina response was a disaster, so technically, he may be the world's greatest experts on disasters.

There ya go!

SWJED

12-31-2008, 06:05 PM

General Barry McCaffrey: Mexico Trip Report

General Barry McCaffrey (USA, Ret.) an Adjunct Professor at West Point, visited Mexico 5-7 December 2008 as part of an International Forum of Intelligence and Security Specialists.

In his report, General McCaffrey notes that drug-related violence in Mexico is as severe as terror-related violence in Afghanistan and calls on the new Administration to urgently focus on the growing security threat to the US southern border.

Latest Academic Mexico Trip Report (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/12/general-barry-mccaffrey-mexico/) - December 2008 (Full AAR)

Gringo Malandro

12-31-2008, 10:26 PM

the drug cartels cannot defeat the government through direct violent confrontation.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that one.

There are plenty of faults to be found with the Mexican government, but that bottom line is that these organizations are funded by OUR drug consumption. I hate to be a cynic but this just sounds like a deepening financial black hole to support a strategy that hasn't produced many gains. This at a time when our system of government is a damaged brand and there is a shrinking pot of gold to pull from.

Mexico has lots of poor people, many of whom rely on remittances for survival. So they aren't going to go along with any proposal to wall off the border, which would cut down on THAT shrinking pool of money.

At it's root this isn't just a law enforcement problem but a social problem as well. And until we take a serious interest in the development of Mexico we just pushing a stone up a hill. The only solution is further integration with Mexico and a long hard look at our drug policy, and neither of those will be extremely popular.

Ken White

12-31-2008, 10:32 PM

We have not been very nice to either of our neighbors...

That's generally considered to be not very bright and to breed resentment that regardless of wealth and the size of your lot can lead to power outages, disrupted water lines and their dogs using your turf for a dumping ground.

We should do better.

davidbfpo

01-01-2009, 12:03 AM

How much can an ex-general and now analyst / reporter learn about a large nation in a two day visit? Even allowing for reading and talking beforehand. Not much I'd say. How much time he spend talking to those on the ground, who IMHO will have a different outlook to anything printed or in electronic format.

davidbfpo

Cavguy

01-01-2009, 12:29 AM

Ken White

01-01-2009, 01:01 AM

some familiarity with the problem but my suspicion is that a flying two day visit and speaking to folks on high -- you can rest assured he did not speak in depth with any peons (LTC and below in his eyes, I suspect) -- does not really give him the depth of current knowledge to be making policy prescriptions. Not that such fact would deter him...

John T. Fishel

01-01-2009, 01:52 AM

I would still suggest to all that we don't underestimate his experience with Mexico or his insights. He was, after all, not only the Director ONDCP (Drug Czar) but also CINC USSOUTHCOM at a time when that command had some major responsibilities toward Mexico even though it was not technically in his AOR.

That said, I agree with Ken's assessment about who the General talked with.:wry:

Cheers

JohnT

Majormarginal

01-01-2009, 06:34 AM

This will not go away. There is de facto legalization in most of urban America. In most of urban America you can sell drugs all day long. All strata of society use illegal drugs. It's time to re boot and think about legalization and regulation.

Bill Moore

01-01-2009, 10:33 AM

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

Top five countries we import crude oil from. The numbers below represent 1,000 barrels a day for the month of OCT 08.

CANADA 2,066
SAUDI ARABIA 1,435
MEXICO 1,256
VENEZUELA 1,027
NIGERIA 935
IRAQ 577

What I found interesting was that when you combine Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela we're getting roughly 4,300,000 barrels a day. From Saudi and Iraq combined we're getting roughly 2,000,000 barrels a day of our crude. I'm sure that is 2,000,000 barrels a day we can ill afford to lose, but the same holds true for the oil we're getting from the Americas. Our myoptic focus on the war on terror has allowed other threats to our national interests to emerge relatively unchallenged.

The criminal insurgency in Mexico has been discussed at length in the SWJ council. The threat is very real and very significant. If the proposed reforms that the Mexican Government is trying to implement is going to work, they're going to need a strong ally that they can lean on during this tough fight. If the Mexican people know, really know, that the U.S. is supporting their fight against narco-terrorism and corruption, then it is more likely that those in Mexico who want to see their country put on a track to stability and economic growth will be more likely to support their government. If they think their government is isolated, and that the narco-terrorists are winning, then there will be little incentive to fight. Enabling Mexico to win this war is at least on par in strategic importance to our nation as Iraq. This won't be an easy fight.

I think GEN (R) McCaffrey's call to action is on target, and hopefully it will get to the right audience. While not necessarily in the scope of this article/trip report, I was disappointed he only addressed the income that the Mexican Cartels are making from the U.S.. I assume that they also sell drugs to Europe, Asia, etc? I also didn't follow the plan for dividing the major cartel families into 50 smaller entities. Why 50? How do you accomplish this?

Bob W.

01-01-2009, 02:54 PM

Major Marginal said:

"This will not go away. There is de facto legalization in most of urban America. In most of urban America you can sell drugs all day long. All strata of society use illegal drugs. It's time to re boot and think about legalization and regulation."

I agree that we need to re-think our drug policy. We spend billions of dollars on drug enforcement every year and little to show for it. I do not believe that law enforcement has ever changed the American public's drug use/consumption, or even mores. either.

Meanwhile, look at what the "drug war" is doing to democracies in Central and South America, it's absolutely tragic.

Would the world be worse if the US legalized (and taxed/regulated) narcotics like Heroin/cocaine, and of course, the no-brainer marijuana? I suspect not.

I hope more Americans start discussing our current drug policies, and the possibility of legalization, intelligently in the near future. . .

ODB

01-01-2009, 03:16 PM

If we legalize it how do we contain it in the work place? No breathalizer to deem someone is under the influence. The worse part of our drug issues is becoming prescriptition medication. We all know the drug companies are loving this, they are making a fortunate at all of ours expense. Who gets the liscenses to grow, make, and sell? Hell if they legalized drugs how many corn fields would turn into pot fields for the profit?

Bob W.

01-01-2009, 06:32 PM

ODB,

Would the societal costs and complexities of legalization surpass what we experience right now with all drugs illegal? How many Americans were arrested last year due to some kind of Marijuana charge, I bet the number is in the hundreds of thousands.

We are able to contain alcoholism in the workplace, i would think that this is fairly analogous to most recreational/addictive drugs.

I honestly do not think it would be too difficult to figure out where drugs could be grown or produced, we seem to excel at regulating things; and my guess is that Marijuana would be grown EVERYWHERE, kind of like it is now, and there would not bean enormous profit in growing POT.

Uboat509

01-01-2009, 07:40 PM

The legalization issue has been discussed at length here. (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6341)

SFC W

1258dave

01-02-2009, 04:49 PM

An estimated 2.1 million people died in the last civil war in Mexico, out of an estimated population of about 15-17 million. (see McCaa, Robert.“Missing Millions: The Demographic Costs of the Mexican Revolution.” Mexican Studies Vol. 19, Iss. 2 (2003): 367-400.18 October)

Over 10% of the total population died during the last war in Mexico, before there was a drug problem.

1) Its about more than drugs. The drug money exacerbates some previously existing fissures, but many of the problems are not new. I think it will get worse faster than we think as the "insurgents" seek to influence the Mexican election cycle over the next 18 months. Nobody on this site is talking about the internal Mexican election cycle/politics/ethnic fissures. Heck nobody even mentioned the Zimmerman Telegram. How that for context? Why would somebody NOT exploit this situation? Drugs are the latest part of the story, but they are not the entire story.

2) I'd argue that we're spending more time talking about our internal politics than talking about Mexico. Some of the fissures in Mexican society existed a long time before our "war on drugs" started. "The Power and the Glory" was written about the fascist (sorry "national socialist") repression after the last civil war in Mexico - before our "war on drugs" ever started.
- I bring it up because it touches on some of the things we're not talking about: The racial tensions in the Mexico, the religious oppression after the Mexican Revolution, and the ethnic/economic divide. It is a snap shot of the "human terrain" after the last Mexican Civil War/Revolution.

3) The new FX-05 Mexican Assault Rifle is called the ''Xiuhcoatl'' and that is not a Spanish word folks. It is Nahuatl - the most widely spoken Ameri-Indian language in Mexico.
- We NEVER want to talk about this in the US: Mexico's Law of Linguistic Rights lists over 60 "official languages" over and above Spanish.
- The vast majority of those languages are only spoken by very small groups (Ameri-Indian Tribes), but the point is that Mexico is more of a quilt work than a monolith. http://www.ethnologue.com/show_map.asp?name=MX&seq=10
- We learned about other folks ethnicity the hard way in CENTCOM - we need to talk about the "human terrain". Drug money is a new factor in the same old problem.
- I know the FX-05 is the G36. Roger that.

4) The Mexican government policies of pre-revolutionary "Castellanization" and the post-revolutionary "MEXICANIDAD" movement both have sought to shape the national identity of Mexico with varying degrees of success.
- In the end Mexico is about 65% metizo, 10-12% Ameri-Indian, and 20% European.
- Who do you think has the money? What is the popular image, in Mexico, of who has the money and why?
- How do you think this shapes the internal politics of Mexico?
- I know this is a pretty crude way of putting it - but mix violence, ethnicity, and politics and things can get pretty crude. That is part of the "human terrain".

5) Contested areas in the US. Armed Forces Journal is really talking about contested areas in our country right? If we're talking about it how far behind the power curve are we?
http://www.afji.com/2008/12/3801379
- “criminal gang activity is a national security threat today. ... It is presently challenging civil order in some contested areas in the U.S., and could continue metastasizing into a more serious threat in three areas; as an active challenge to civil order itself (as in Mexico today), as an enabler or support network for terrorist attacks in the U.S., and by establishing a permissive, lawless environment that passively supports anti-U.S. activity.”

6) President Calderon says: Its a WAR! I'd believe him.
http://projects.latimes.com/siege/#/its-a-war

The LA Times does appear to get it, and is doing some good reporting. It is a war, it will get worse before it gets better.

If you want the worst case then read the Zimmerman Telegram by Barbara Tuchman, and substitute new characters of your choice for the Germans.

Again: Why would somebody NOT exploit this situation? Our break from history really is over.

Thanks for reading this far. Have a good weekend - Dave

1258dave

01-02-2009, 08:22 PM

Ref the message above. I'll work on the editing. Thanks.

jkm_101_fso

01-08-2009, 04:49 PM

Not sure what agencies/military will be involved in this; BP, DEA, probably NG

U.S. Plans Border ‘Surge’ Against Any Drug Wars
RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD
Published: January 7, 2009
NYT

The soaring level of violence in Mexico resulting from the drug wars there has led the United States to develop plans for a “surge” of civilian and perhaps even military law enforcement should the bloodshed spread across the border, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Wednesday.

I really hate the word "surge".

Officials of the Homeland Security Department said the plan called for aircraft, armored vehicles and special teams to converge on border trouble spots, with the size of the force depending on the scale of the problem. Military forces would be called upon if civilian agencies like the Border Patrol and local law enforcement were overwhelmed, but the officials said military involvement was considered unlikely.

Armored vehicles seems like it would involve military; but it sounds like we'd be a last resort.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/us/08chertoff.html?hp

Stevely

01-14-2009, 11:16 PM

From the El Paso times, a mention of a JFCOM report warning of the possible collapse of two key states: Pakistan and Mexico.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11444354?source=most_viewed

davidbfpo

01-14-2009, 11:22 PM

The actual report is: http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf . Note Mexico is only partly covered.

There is a commentary on: http://www.douglasfarah.com/

davidbfpo

bourbon

01-20-2009, 03:24 PM

Shadow of vigilantes appears in Mexico drug war (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN19371958), By Julian Cardona. Reuters, Jan 19, 2009.

Shadowy vigilante groups are threatening Mexico's drug gangs near the U.S. border in retaliation for a wave of murders and kidnappings that killed 1,600 people in this city alone last year.

One group in the border city of Ciudad Juarez pledged last week to "clean our city of these criminals" and said their mission was to "end the life of a criminal every 24 hours."

Citizen Command of Juarez - update (http://samuellogan.blogspot.com/2009/01/citizen-command-of-juarez-update.html), by Samuel Logan. Security in Latin America, January 20, 2009.

The army assumes that this group may turn into something similiar to "La Familia" a civil justice group in Michoacan that eventually fell into the services of one drug trafficking organization, used to wipe out members of a rival criminal group.

Piranha

01-23-2009, 11:31 PM

Houston Chronicle, 15 Dec 08: Houston anti-kidnapping expert kidnapped in Mexico (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/6165791.html)

Sounds almost surrealistic, just call me naieve.

1258dave

02-12-2009, 08:07 PM

url]http://www.latimes.com/news/la-na-drug-kidnappings12-2009feb12,0,3927610.story[/url]

The war in Mexico is being "fought" here in the US.

Atlanta and Phoenix are the canaries in this coal mine. Expect the violence in Mexico, and in US cities with a significant connection to Mexico, to increase as the Mexican mid-term election cycle starts in the next 12 months.

I am always shocked that the war on our boarder does not get much press except for in the LA Times.:confused:

On my big soap box again:
Yugoslavia had 3 official languages.
Mexico has over 60.

I know that there are over 180 total langages "spoken" in Mexico and that less than 5 of them are significant.

But how significant? Since we tend to learn about other folks social and ethnic composition the hard way....is anybody out there thinking about this? Is there a ethnic/group self-identification side to the war in Mexico that we're not seeing? Does anybody have any ideas about this?

The Westies (an NYC gang) required you be Irish, or from the Westside, the mafia was more open, but still ethnically/regionally based.

I'd be surprised if there is not a simmilar dynamic in Mexico. You start "a family business" with people you know and trust....like La Familia.

Different subject: when I was at the Army FA Advanced Course (dating myself) there was a Brazilian Officer who had seen combat primarily in San Palo, Rio, and in the jungle war zone along the boarder. His "war" was more like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/f...ok-Brazil.html While the movie is baised, it is worth getting it. From here it looks like what is going on in Mexico now.

I welcome any response. Thanks.

Bob's World

02-12-2009, 08:43 PM

Leaders are always looking for "Metrics," a quick read through this thread should be a crystal clear metric that U.S. laws and policies for how we treat American drug users are completely failed.

Supply-based counter drug efforts can only result in this type of activity, and with the global recession upon us, it will only get worse in terms of the destabilization of fragile states to our south.

IMHO we have two options:
1. Change our position on civil liberties and get medevil on those Americans who choose to use drugs (will require punishments that do not punish the taxpayer, just the drug user); or

2. Change our position on civil liberties and legalize and control manufacture, transportation, distribution and sale of recreational drugs.

If we refuse to make either hard decision, we will harvest failed states to our south, with significant diasporas in our borders. The destabilization caused by that is far worse than either of the options above, and option one is a COA that is not feasible in the US.

slapout9

02-13-2009, 02:43 AM

2. Change our position on civil liberties and legalize and control manufacture, transportation, distribution and sale of recreational drugs.

This is also tied to the economic situation as we will look for better ways to payback our huge national debt there will be tremendous pressure to come up with tax revenues beside the straight income tax. As the financial pressure builds this will become a more viable option.

Majormarginal

02-20-2009, 06:34 AM

Bill Moore

02-20-2009, 07:23 AM

1258Dave, I agree, that was an excellent post. Context is critical, and your short history lesson valuable. We have this odd habit of attempting to narrow the scope of the problem to drugs, gangs, terrorists, etc. and simply disregard the overall context. We have war on drugs, where we focus entirely on drugs (go out of our way to avoid going after the insurgents). We wage war on terrorism, and we focus on getting the terrorist, again with addressing the situation holistically.

There are several factors that contribute to this, and one of them is the miltary planning process and the mind set that it encourages where we try to narrow the problem down to simple, stupid (it isn't), and then we develop some b.s. center of gravity (that doesn't really exist). We execute, and we create metrics, and they don't paint the picture we want, we change them. Don't change the strategy, simply keep changing the metrics until you get the result you want. Many of you know exactly what I'm talking about, and the EBO process has simply made the problem worse.

The Army is now experimenting with Operational Design, which doesn't wish away wicked problems, but attempts to develop an understanding of the complexity, then develop a counter logic to nip at the various problem sets.

Irregular warfare is more complex than conventional war (and conventional war is not simple by any stretch of anyone's imagination), and our doctrine and education has not yet addressed these serious shortfalls.

Ken White

02-20-2009, 03:00 PM

either Mexico and its problem or of gangs in general but Bill's post prompts two thoughts:
The Army is now experimenting with Operational Design, which doesn't wish away wicked problems, but attempts to develop an understanding of the complexity, then develop a counter logic to nip at the various problem sets.The first, not totally tongue in cheek, is that the Army experimented with Organizational Design over 30 years ago. Before that, it had experimented with Organizational Change. After that, it experimented with Organizational Effectiveness -- all matters of record. Then came the debacle that was the net handling of Iraq early on and I joked that we had gone from OC to OD to OE and had reached OF -- Organizational Failure. I just hope we're not into deja-vuing here... :wry:
Irregular warfare is more complex than conventional war (and conventional war is not simple by any stretch of anyone's imagination), and our doctrine and education has not yet addressed these serious shortfalls.This is true and results from, I believe, attempting to make too many competing players 'happy' with verbiage and techniques. I'd only comment that central direction and a singular agreed approach may not be the best solution to a complex problem.

Hacksaw

02-20-2009, 08:22 PM

You and Bill may be talking apples and oranges...

Operational Design has little or nothing to do with organizational concepts and everything to do with a fuller more nuanced appreciation of a problem, the context within which the problem exists and comprehensive approaches to solving the problem without wishing away the sometimes contradictory and emergent nature of complex problems...

Of course, I always thought I did this as a planner, but.... they now have an operational "model" to help a group of bright people examine a problem through multiple lenses (think Nicholas Cage in National Treasure:D)...

Then again maybe you just mis-typed or I mis-understood, and the initiatives you mentioned earlier are exactly like Operational Design/Systemic Operational Design/Commander's Appreciation & Campaign Design

Live well and row

Ken White

02-20-2009, 08:41 PM

a play on words -- sort of -- to express my partly tongue in cheek dismay, much as you did, at yet another "NEW" concept. We seem to espouse a new one ever 20 years or so. Probably takes that long for people to forget the last great hopeful would-be paradigm buster. Fortunately, most of them do little damage. :cool:

Though I am now concerned for the eyesight of all today's planners 'cause I'm pretty sure that looking through multiple lenses is bad for ones eyes... :D

Bill Moore

02-21-2009, 06:50 PM

Ken,

While the label operational design may be somewhat new, but I am not so sure that the concept is. I attempted to research historic irregular warfare events we were involved in prior to Vietnam with the specific purpose of attempting to identify the planning process/thought process that supported the development of the campaign plan. Unfortunately I'm not a good researcher, my numerous attempts at google and a few trips to the library failed to uncover what I was looking for.

It "seems" the so called Powell Doctrine in response to our involvement in Vietnam with it focus on concrete military objectives and clearly established conditions for our exit prior to committing troops has shaped our planning process for the worse. These are needed at the tactical level, but attempting to define certainity at the strategic level actually reduces are ability to respond to uncertainity (as recently demonstrated in OIF, transition from phase III to phase IV).

Having been involved a number of planning spins for crisis response, the conventional focus was on the "military end state" (read exit plan), then a logical (linear path) to get there, and the hand off to some imaginary interagency agency/department that would then take the lead. That thought process works well for some missions where we have limited objectives and the situation isn't overly complex (e.g. Grenada, Panama, NEOs, emergency humanitarian assistance, etc.), but it doesn't work so well for more complex irregular warfare scenarios like the occupation of the Philippines, Haiti, Nicaragua, the Vietnam conflict, Somalia, El Salvador, OIF, OEF-A, OEF-P, etc. where the strategic end state simply isn't knowable in a military sense.

While not completely sold on it, I haven't seen any other process that will allow us to adequately address the complexity we're dealing with in this current conflict. The good news is operational design is not intended to replace MDMP, it is intended to give planners a better understanding of the situation (something like a strategic/operational level blue/red/green dynamic situation template that recognizes complexity and informs the planning process) to inform campaign development, and hopefully the recognition that we'll have to adjust the campaign based on changing conditions and political objectives. Military units will still be given specific missions, and they will still apply the time tested MDMP for their specific missions.

I have a warm spot in a heart for OD because it challenges the foolishness of EBO by recognizing complexity, but I agree we are in danger of dejavu if contractors get ahold of this, then attempt to develop software that supports it (destroys it), and we once again fall back on trying to identify some stupid metrics that don't mean squat. Didn't we start losing wars when we focused on metrics instead of commander's intuition? Give DoD time, they'll take a concept worth considering, outsource to the contracting whores, and it will come back to the force with a STD that just keeps giving.

Ken White

02-21-2009, 07:59 PM

It "seems" the so called Powell Doctrine in response to our involvement in Vietnam with it focus on concrete military objectives and clearly established conditions for our exit prior to committing troops has shaped our planning process for the worse.Having been involved in the work up for Desert Storm, I totally agree. DS was also a good example of this:
...where the strategic end state simply isn't knowable in a military sense.Then, as often is the case, because the politicians cannot determine a strategy and make it up as they go...
I have a warm spot in a heart for OD because it challenges the foolishness of EBO by recognizing complexity, but I agree we are in danger of dejavu if contractors get ahold of this, then attempt to develop software that supports it (destroys it), and we once again fall back on trying to identify some stupid metrics that don't mean squat. Didn't we start losing wars when we focused on metrics instead of commander's intuition? Give DoD time, they'll take a concept worth considering, outsource to the contracting whores, and it will come back to the force with a STD that just keeps giving.I've read enough about it to agree with all that. Hopefully, we'll quit screwing things up in that manner. Someday. I really wish someone could do an accurate audit of contractor benefits and detriments to Armed forces over the years...

My apologies, BTW, for taking your serious comment of a couple of days ago and letting my warped sense of humor loose. I really have trouble resisting any play on words... :o :wry:

1258dave

03-12-2009, 01:11 AM

I'd like to note that my security concerns about the War in Mexico are just that - security concerns. If this was happening in Quebec I'd also be concerned.

Further, my questions about the role of group self-identification and ethnicity in the Mexico are driven by my experiences in Iraq dealing with a society that fractured along ethnic and religious lines. I believe these are legitimate concerns and questions especially given our experiences in Somalia, Yugoslavia, and Kosovo. In each of these cases self-identification, linguistic heritage, religion, and ethnicity, played a major role in the conflict – as they still do in Afghanistan today.

bourbon

03-12-2009, 04:09 AM

In each of these cases self-identification, linguistic heritage, religion, and ethnicity, played a major role in the conflict
May we live in interesting times.

Los Zetas: Evolution of a Criminal Organization (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=97554), By Samuel Logan. ISN Security Watch, 11 Mar 2009.

From the original 31 members, the Mexican organized criminal faction Los Zetas has grown into an organization in its own right, operating separate from the Gulf Cartel and just as violent, Sam Logan writes for ISN Security Watch.
Los Zetas original and Zetas the Brand? Sounds similar to AQ.

1258dave

03-16-2009, 03:09 AM

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13234157

The link from The Economist (On the trail of the traffickers Mar 5th 2009) is interesting. It is the most detailed information I have seen yet about how Mexico is trying to reform its legal system and its police under fire. I realize that this is partially in response to the furry of comments about Mexico as a "failed stated" (or potential failed state) it is interesting information. I'm glad that The Economist carried it, now where is the rest of the media? :wry:

from the article:
The aim, says Eduardo Medina Mora, Mr Calderón’s attorney-general, is not to end drug-trafficking “because that is unachievable.” Rather, it is “to take back from organised criminal groups the economic power and armament they’ve established in the past 20 years, to take away their capacity to undermine institutions and to contest the state’s monopoly of force.”

Schmedlap

03-16-2009, 03:27 AM

Stratfor has been discussing problems in Mexico for quite a while. They were discussing it long before I heard a peep from the media.

http://www.stratfor.com/countries/mexico

Bill Moore

03-16-2009, 07:09 AM

Sorry, I only caught the last part of an interview on CNN with a Mexican official, so I didn't catch his name or position.

He went on and on about how more tourists came to Mexico in 2008, than 2007, and so far tourism for 2009 is doing pretty good. That's because the problems are isolated to three northern states, the rest of Mexico is fine (not quite the truth, since there were several attacks in Acapulco). He then went on to say that almost all the killings were thugs killing thugs, which probably was true in the beginning, but obviously any cop, lawyer, judge, politician who attempts to stand up against the Mexican Mafia is assuming a high degree of risk. Not to mention the serious threat of drug money, which is a weapon of corruption that can destroy a government from within.

I remain hopeful at this stage that the thugs can be defeated, but if their officials are in a state of denial, then that causes more concern.

bourbon

03-16-2009, 06:35 PM

Problems may be isolated to the northern states now, I don't know the situation; but if so it is because a dominate cartel has emerged in southern state turf wars. The cartels need northern export routes, and southern states for maritime and overland import routes. There was a lot of violence over the import routes the last three years.

davidbfpo

03-19-2009, 10:59 AM

Congressional testimony: http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/testimony/testimony_1237397860176.shtm

Rather bland and full of spin. No sign of threat assessment, but then my armchair is a long way away.

davidbfpo

gh_uk

03-29-2009, 09:54 AM

Some interesting images from Mexico's drug battles..

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/mexicos_drug_war.html

1258dave

03-29-2009, 08:30 PM

I guess "somebody" is paying attention.

From Foreign Policy .com:
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/03/27/was_obama
"The New York Times reports, following the Mexican media, that Hillary Clinton's visit to Mexico is in danger of being upstaged by concerns over Obama's reported pick for ambassador to Mexico, Carlos Pascual. Pascual, who is director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution and former ambassador to Ukraine, has written extensively about failed states and ran the State Department's Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization under the Bush administration:"

NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/world/americas/27mexico.html?_r=1&ref=americas
"The Mexican daily newspaper El Universal, citing unnamed sources, reported Thursday that the United States had submitted Mr. Pascual’s name to the Mexican government.

The paper noted that Mr. Pascual’s specialty was in dealing with conflict-ridden states. He served as the coordinator for reconstruction and stabilization in the State Department, a post that involved working with several agencies to develop strategies for broken countries like Afghanistan.

That could raise hackles among some Mexicans, who take umbrage at recent assertions by American analysts that drug-related violence has so destabilized Mexico that it is danger of becoming a failed state"

George L. Singleton

03-29-2009, 08:42 PM

Your suppositions that a good career US Ambassador with problem or trouble shooting experience will be or is resented by Mexico is questionable to me.

With an average of over 6,000 KIA, ie, the Mexican drug wars, per year...this dwarfs the cumulative KIA for the entire 7 year long, now, Iraq War.

Mexico needs all the trouble-qualified help it can get.

Drugs in Mexico are no different than opium in Afghanistan. Drugs are drugs and bad for the world at large.

My two cents.

1258dave

03-29-2009, 08:48 PM

davidbfpo

03-29-2009, 09:32 PM

I can understand how the Ambassdor-designate's past as an expert on failed states might be seen as an affront to Mexicans. In the last couple of years there are ample reports on how Anglo-American diplomacy in Pakistan has been resented. More particularly the USA is a rather powerful neighbour next door. It all depends on how the public aspect of the nomination is presented to Mexicans.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton

03-30-2009, 12:03 AM

George,
I'm not sure I understand your post.

My 1st impression is that this is a positive step by the US Gov.

I think the situation in Mexico is underreported and I'm trying to post information here.

1258dave:

Your clarification helps me better understand you, as I "read" you as joining in the criticism of a career US Ambassador being named to Mexico from the US. My misunderstanding I suppose. I support this career Ambassador's appointment and think he is most suited in background for the Mexican posting...as I am among those who feels Mexico's government has been on the brink of collapse due to the drug lords wars within Mexico, especially along the US border.

The US Ambassador is the servant of whichever administration is in power in the US and has to tow that line, as will now be the case with Obama's appointment to Mexico.

In partial comment to David, the US Ambassadors, Generals, Colonels, whoever, in active service are not and should not be "Free agents."

World citizens have the individual right to judge, condemn, praise, whatever, but they have to elect their own national governing leadership...but as yet no European nation is able to elect our US Presidents. We US citizens elect and live under our US leaders.

I have UK cousins whose mother is my lst cousin, born in USA. If ever I comment on leadership and elections in UK...if my opinions are not shared, I encounter a storm of protest. I am thinking of my own family example in using my opinion to be contra to those who judge or comment on our US Ambassador for Mexico. But, in all cases, we have world citizens freedom to say what we think...but we can only "vote" in our own national elections, which is as it should be.

John T. Fishel

03-30-2009, 12:22 AM

are right - and nobody's wrong. Amb Pascual is well qualified. He may well be resented by some or many Mexicans for the reasons noted. What counts, however, is whether he is acceptable to President Calderon. If so, he's in; if not, back to the drawing boards. In the "for what it's worth dept" I think he'll be welcomed with open arms.:wry:

Cheers

JohnT

slapout9

03-30-2009, 12:49 AM

I always start start getting worried when they talk about the President of Mexico....Calderone was the main dealer in Miami Vice:eek::eek:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Cgx558wh7o

slapout9

03-30-2009, 04:00 AM

I made the prediction back in 2006 that Mexico would be the next small war. I am posting the link from when the thread was started...there is good debate and as usual good music throughout the thread. As for Mexico's future I will make some predictions later on. Notice how hard it was to convince people how much of a threat this is back then...the US can be a slow learner when it comes to good Threat Assessment of VSNA's. Enjoy.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1394&highlight=Mexico

AdamG

03-30-2009, 12:09 PM

Something doesn't add up about this '2,000 guns a day headed south' figure being touted by the mainstream media. We've seen 10" barreled M4s, M203s,M249s and M60s, in addition to frag HE and 40mm projectiles. That'd make the Mexican military one source, but nowhere near enough to meet demand.

With an estimated 100,000 fighters under arms, the drug cartels would seemingly have easier access to more effective weaponry through Mexico's more-porous southern border.

Furthermore, the cost-value figures that the cartels are reportedly paying for semi-automatic arms are skewed when compared to black market prices for full-auto weaponry (at least as far as what I've read about Latin America).

Does anyone have a copy of the Brookings Institute report that addresses the arms smuggling?

AdamG

03-30-2009, 01:30 PM

Updated Friday, March 6, 2009 10:18 am TWN, By Arthur I. Cyr, Special to The China Post
Robert Gates links Iran and Mexico
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/41800

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, the Cabinet holdover from the Bush years, is in the news regarding two major issues, and in each case is challenged to demonstrate that he remains in charge of the enormous Pentagon.

In one case, he has disagreed sharply with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding Iran's nuclear weapons capacity. In the other, he appears to disagree with himself, at least in institutional terms, regarding Mexico's enormous expanding drug traffic.

The problems represented by developments in both nations have very strong implications for Asia and indeed the comprehensive international system of nations. Iran is steadily growing in influence in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, one byproduct of the United States invasion and occupation of Iraq not anticipated by the Bush administration. The problem of Islamic radicalism, and the development in turn of associated terrorist groups, is however global in scope, reflected recently in the violence in Mumbai India. The largest Muslim population in the world is found in Indonesia.

Drug trafficking likewise is a global problem. Illicit manufacturers as well as traders are to be found in literally every country on the globe. Southeast Asia traditionally has been a major source of supply.

As a Devil's Advocate, I wonder how much cross-over there is between these two problems.

bourbon

03-31-2009, 06:59 PM

Updated Friday, March 6, 2009 10:18 am TWN, By Arthur I. Cyr, Special to The China Post
Robert Gates links Iran and Mexico
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/41800
I've read article three times now, and still do not see how Robert Gates linked Iran and Mexico together as suggested in the article's title.

As a Devil's Advocate, I wonder how much cross-over there is between these two problems.
Well...
Iran does have one of the better counter-narcotics programs in the world, and several thousand Iranian security personnel have died fighting drug traffickers. DTO's that operate through Iran have in the past likely been utilized by foreign intelligence services. Similarly, it's possible that Mexican DTO's could be as well.

Ollie North's buddy Arif Ali Durrani, who previously was pinched for selling missile parts to Iran from the US, was busted in 2005 exporting jet parts to Iran out the back of his restaurant in Tijuana.

Tom Odom

04-03-2009, 10:53 AM

Classic convenient use of statistics to push an agenda

The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S. (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/)

While 90 percent of the guns traced to the U.S. actually originated in the United States, the percent traced to the U.S. is only about 17 percent of the total number of guns reaching Mexico.

EXCLUSIVE: You've heard this shocking "fact" before -- on TV and radio, in newspapers, on the Internet and from the highest politicians in the land: 90 percent of the weapons used to commit crimes in Mexico come from the United States.

-- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it to reporters on a flight to Mexico City.

-- CBS newsman Bob Schieffer referred to it while interviewing President Obama.

-- California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said at a Senate hearing: "It is unacceptable to have 90 percent of the guns that are picked up in Mexico and used to shoot judges, police officers and mayors ... come from the United States."

-- William Hoover, assistant director for field operations at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, testified in the House of Representatives that "there is more than enough evidence to indicate that over 90 percent of the firearms that have either been recovered in, or interdicted in transport to Mexico, originated from various sources within the United States."

There's just one problem with the 90 percent "statistic" and it's a big one:

It's just not true.

120mm

04-04-2009, 04:23 AM

You beat me to it, Tom.

Lucky I did a search, first.

Bottom line is, that illegal military arms are cheaper and easier to import into Mexico than legally purchased civilian arms from the US.

The whole "90 percent" argument is a Big Lie. Now, if you're telling me that you can stop the Mexican Army from handing it's guns over to the Drug Cartels faster than the US sells them to them by enforcing stricter gun control laws on civilians in the US, I'd say that someone is smoking crack.

Or they're a former General Officer trying to kiss up to the current administration for a J-O-B.

Jedburgh

04-05-2009, 09:49 PM

Statistics can be spun for whatever purpose the user wishes. In this case, no matter which side you wish to turn the numbers towards, in the end we still have a serious problem. A LOT of firearms are making their way from the U.S. to MX and getting in the hands of DTO gunslingers. U.S. POOs for these weapons range from gun stores to pawn shops to gun shows and a lot of gray and black areas in-between. Obtaining and transporting these weapons involves a noxious collaborative mix of street gangs, prison gangs and OMGs working to supply the MX DTOs. This is a wide-spread problem in TX, with a lesser - but still serious - impact in AZ, CA and NV.

So just throw out the damn percentage metrics. What really matters is the cold, hard fact that there is a substantial cross-border weapons trade going on that not only provides the MX DTOs with a substantial number of weapons, but the cash flows coming the other way for purchase/transport costs are also strengthening domestic street gangs, prison gangs and OMGs in the affected areas and beyond. That ain't a good thing no matter how you spin it.

Tom Odom

04-06-2009, 06:37 AM

Statistics can be spun for whatever purpose the user wishes. In this case, no matter which side you wish to turn the numbers towards, in the end we still have a serious problem.

I would agree that we do have a problem. The same one we have had before the current drug gang wars erupted along the borders, namely an unsecure border.

None of what is currently under discussion in relation to the weapons issue relates to that base line border issue. It is illegal to cross the border without proper permission regardless of direction. The legal penalties are, however, largely unenforced if you are headed north. Since the emergence of the Mexican drug gangs as a direct challenge to cvil and military authority, legal control on the Mexican side of people, material, and money moving south has become equally problematic.

So just throw out the damn percentage metrics. What really matters is the cold, hard fact that there is a substantial cross-border weapons trade going on that not only provides the MX DTOs with a substantial number of weapons, but the cash flows coming the other way for purchase/transport costs are also strengthening domestic street gangs, prison gangs and OMGs in the affected areas and beyond. That ain't a good thing no matter how you spin it,

Here I will disagree on throwing out the metrics because the metrics are an issue when they are used for non-related purposes. Four times as many weapons --much of it military grade--enters Mexico from other areas. So if we are going to highlight the weapons issue, we need to see where most are coming from.

That does not mean we do not have an issue along the border. Rather I would suggest again that we need to highlight the base issue--border security--and work out from that versus taking the arms smuggling and trying to work backwards.

Tom

AdamG

04-10-2009, 04:41 AM

Ollie North's buddy Arif Ali Durrani, who previously was pinched for selling missile parts to Iran from the US, was busted in 2005 exporting jet parts to Iran out the back of his restaurant in Tijuana.

Zeayadali Malhamdary was busted the same year for smuggling Iranians into the US via Mexico. Wonder what they were up to.
http://www.azcentral.com/12news/news/articles/0601iraniansmuggle-CR.html

And what was the point of Ahmadinejad's excellent Nicaraguan vacation two years later?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6261721.stm
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN0139469120070802

I'll leave the articulation to this reporter - The only question is whether, in the event of war, Iran could deploy its Hezbollah and Revolutionary Guard agents to hit American interests or allies in South America. It's been done before, under the cover of Iran's embassies, to Jewish targets in Argentina, Americans in Iraq, and perceived enemies elsewhere around the world.
http://www.nysun.com/foreign/iranians-plant-their-flag-in-wilds-of-nicaragua/70934/

AdamG

04-10-2009, 08:03 AM

I would agree that we do have a problem. The same one we have had before the current drug gang wars erupted along the borders, namely an unsecure border. .

Exactly. If the secondary source of arms is misidentified as the primary source, then nothing can be done to effectively interdict the real flow of weaponry and the problem will persist.

That does not mean we do not have an issue along the border. Rather I would suggest again that we need to highlight the base issue--border security--and work out from that versus taking the arms smuggling and trying to work backwards.

An effective border control would solve both the north and south bound problems. Jump Start was good but could have been better:
http://www.groundreport.com/Opinion/Has-Operation-Jump-Start-Been-Effective
As effective as the Guard has been, however, some feel it could have been more effective. The late U.S. Rep. Charlie Norwood (R-GA), the driving force behind the OJS program, had recommended in 2005, after studying the Border problem, that 36,000 troops, or 18 personnel per mile, would create an impenetrable border. He had researched and published this number in his 2005 report to the House Immigration Reform Caucus, “Results and Implications of the Minuteman Project.”

jmm99

04-10-2009, 07:38 PM

Here we have "Results and Implications of the Minuteman Project (http://www.minutemanhq.com/pdf_files/norwood_minuteman_report_61705.pdf)" by the late Charlie Norword (bio (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Norwood); attached to the Herd) - a quick 30-page read.

Its Executive Summary:

The Minutemen Project demonstrated that with realistic and immediate manpower increases illegal immigration on America’s southern border would be dramatically reduced if not virtually eliminated compared to current levels of illegal crossings.

Approximately 900 volunteers participated in the Project over the 30-day period. An estimated 125-450 volunteers were actively involved in the Project at any given time, functioning in a lightly armed constabulary role, without arrest powers.

Volunteers paid their own expenses, received no pay, and were drawn from all regions of the country. Volunteers received approximately two days training before active duty. Many volunteers were former military, while some had previous law enforcement training. Operational organization was military in nature.

Based on field observations, the Project deployed on average 6-20 personnel per border mile, although at an unsustainable tempo, and with conditions that artificially amplified the impact of Project volunteers.

A successful immediate replication of the Minuteman Project would require an average 12 –24 enforcement personnel per mile, or around 36,000 total additional personnel to adequately secure the entire 2,000 mile southern border. An additional 12,000 support personnel may be necessary to provide services over an extended deployment.

Physical injury of volunteers or immigrants, violence, and political border incidents were avoided through the exceptional leadership and prior planning exhibited by Minuteman Project leaders, and the high caliber and total mission dedication of volunteer personnel the organization was able to field for a limited deployment. It is doubtful that these standards could be maintained over time with an unpaid volunteer organizational structure.

Congress and the states could sustain the success of the Minuteman Project with immediate provision of an adequate number of legally authorized auxiliary border enforcement personnel, charged with similar light-armed constabulary duties, and in coordination with the Border Patrol. This could be achieved immediately through a combination of means.

The States, Congress or the President could provide for deployment of the National Guard, and/or Homeland Security Grants for authorized State Defense Forces to assist the Border Patrol at the discretion of their respective Governors. Troops would need to be drawn from multiple states in order not to exhaust the manpower resources of the border states. Congress and the President could also deploy federal forces to the border to relieve state reinforcements, until the Border Patrol can be permanently strengthened.

My two cents worth on this auxiliary force (which amounts to a type of gendarmerie) is that something akin to the National Guard - but focused on a legal system-legal action approach (e.g., Border Patrol) - would be worth a spin. Both borders (north and south) are porous.

In addition, these home-based gendarmerie could be helpful in a Mombai situation - I'm assuming a level of traning and education on a par with the Border Patrol, etc. It would also give a number of folks, who are not pleased with directions to go shopping, something to do.

carl

04-10-2009, 11:00 PM

A secure border would be a good thing. But that is not the fundamental problem. The fundamental problem is there are tens of millions of Americans who are willing to pay oceans of money to buy something they want that our government says they can't have. There is so much money to be made serving the appetite for drugs, that inventive, nervy and violent people are going to find a way to serve it no matter what we do at the border.

The only way to solve the fundamental problem is to radically reduce demand, or legitimize the demand, legalize it. We won't reduce demand because that would inconvenience a lot of upper and middle class people; and we don't want to legalize it because that wouldn't look good. What we will probably do is what we have done for decades, strong arm weaker countries into trying to save us from ourselves and getting a whole lot of Latin American policemen and soldiers killed.

So what does that make us? Feckless is a good word.

Jed: Please don't use the acronyms, I get lost. I was able to figure out "DTO", drug trafficking organization, but ""OMG" lost me. Operational maneuver group?

Jedburgh

04-11-2009, 01:23 AM

AdamG

04-17-2009, 04:27 AM

It'll be interesting to see if this particular Cartel retaliates for this encounter.

15 gunmen, 1 soldier killed in Mexican shootout
Apr 16 02:17 PM US/Eastern
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97JO8IO0&show_article=1

MEXICO CITY (AP) - The Mexican military says 15 gunmen and one soldier were killed in a shootout hours ahead of President Barack Obama's first visit to the country.

Mexico's Defense Department says the shootout happened in a remote, mountainous region in Guerrero state, where the Pacific coast resort of Acapulco is located.

The department says soldiers came under fire from a convoy of gunmen Wednesday while patrolling the drug trafficking area.

Obama is meeting Thursday with President Felipe Calderon to show his support for the Mexican government's fight against cartels. The Defense Department described the shootout Thursday.

Ron Humphrey

04-18-2009, 12:00 AM

It'll be interesting to see if this particular Cartel retaliates for this encounter.

(EPR), (EPRI),

Guerrero is one of the Mexican states in which political violence has been a constant
historical feature. Over the last 100 years, people’s lives have been characterised by
extreme violent oppression. “Landless wage laborers as well as ejidatarios and smallholder
peasants have fought against oppression by government and private interests through
formal channels ... But characteristically, the stories of worker organizations and smallscale
landholders ... have been infused with a more violent, subversive, and anarchic
outlashes by the poor. Indeed the word Guerrero means warrior in Spanish” (Wexler,
1995:11). Violence is currently the most serious problem in the state, particularly in the
forest regions “While drugs and killing appear together in occasional media snippets, the
violence in Guerrero pervades everyday life. Armed hold-ups ... occur in the public streets
and more often along rural roads. In one span of 36 months preceding the October 1993
elections, 45 opposition party officials were assassinated in Guerrero” (Wexler, 1995)Link (http://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/archive/00000307/00/merinol041900.pdf)

or a whole different group

AdamG

04-18-2009, 02:13 AM

or a whole different group

A whole different group than who? The 15 dead gangsters weren't identified, by a specific Cartel.

Thanks for the link, interesting reading.

Ron Humphrey

04-18-2009, 02:22 AM

A whole different group than who? The 15 dead gangsters weren't identified, by a specific Cartel.

Thanks for the link, interesting reading.

Didn't see any specific references either thus wondering if you might have had the scoop:D

Anywho- looking at the history in that area could be any of the above, especially if the current environment down there has some cartels taking advantage of the historic issues in order to get bases of operation.

The link is somewhat dated though so more recent info might be beneficial in actually getting clarity on current conditions there.

AdamG

04-18-2009, 05:44 AM

Ron,
Will post when something crosses my radar.

From the Reforma Agency, via the Brownsville Herald -

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/articles/seized_96896___article.html/weapons_report.html

Mexico DF-During the administration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon, the agencies in charge of fighting organized crime have seized 35,943 firearms from the drug cartels, or a yearly average of 15,400 weapons.

This latest figure is five times larger that the yearly average reached during the presidency of Vicente Fox** whose agencies seized 2,500 weapons yearly between 2002 and 2006.

The official report "Mexico-U.S. Arms Trafficking 2009*" states that between Dec. 1, 2006 and March 26, 2009, the Attorney General's Office (PGR), the Federal Police, The Mexican Army and the Mexican Navy also seized 4,772,517 rounds of ammunition and 2,804 grenades.

* Anyone seen the original report, in English or Spanish?

** So, does that mean the good guys south of the border interdicted five times more trafficking or are just five times more proactive than during the previous administration?

Ken White

04-18-2009, 04:21 PM

Tastes differ but to me it and the red type are a distraction from your comment...

bourbon

04-26-2009, 10:29 PM

Mexico arrests drug hitman behind US kidnap case (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN25461421). Reuters, April 25, 2009.

MEXICO CITY, April 25 (Reuters) - Mexican police have arrested a top drug gang hitman suspected of being involved in the still unsolved December 2008 abduction of U.S. anti-kidnap expert Felix Batista, the government said on Saturday.

German Torres, 29, was arrested in Mexico City on Friday. He is believed to be a founding member of the feared "Zetas" wing of the powerful Gulf cartel that dominates drug smuggling from northeastern Mexico into Texas.

Jedburgh

04-28-2009, 01:05 PM

RAND, 27 Apr 09: Security in Mexico: Implications for U.S. Policy Options (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG876.pdf)

Violence in Mexico has spiked over the past four years and is increasingly affecting the United States. In response, both the Mexican government and the U.S. government are searching for ways to improve security in Mexico. This monograph examines the security situation in Mexico and assesses its impact on the United States. In addition, it outlines a number of policy options that the United States can consider in its efforts to assist the Mexican government in improving internal security in Mexico.....

Hunter Watson

05-02-2009, 06:56 PM

Law enforcement professional John Sullivan and a colleague have written a "Plazas for Profit" article which appears in the SWC Journal; added link: http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-temp/232-sullivan.pdf . I reproduce my comment on it here in hopes of stimulating conversation on what I think is the ultimate issue:

Hunter Watson :

I thank you for the article on Mexico's war with the cartels along her northern border. It's a penetrating analysis and deserves to be widely read.

As I worked through it I was alert for a discussion of drug policy changes as a line of attack against the cartels. I found only a single comment to the effect that there was no likelihood of such changes in the near future. I wondered how that judgment had been reached.

Mexico represents America's most important foreign relationship. We are joined at the hip. To a large extent we are family, something which can not be said of Iraq and Afghanistan---and in the broad sense not even of Israel.

My question is whether the same analytical expertise can be applied to the *political problem* of changing American drug policy with the goal of destroying the demand for the cartels' products. Where is the pressure coming from in the U.S. to throw good money after bad in a failed enterprise? Who are the primary actors? What are the enforcement mechanisms protecting the taboos against discussing changes in policy? Why is it preferable to have drugs *and* drug related crime as opposed to only drugs? Why can't marijuana and cocaine be treated as a health problem? Why is maintenance of this failed method of dealing with the impact of drugs deemed indispensable when it also seems to fail every cost/benefit analysis?

Until we take such a hard look at ourselves I see no hope of ending this crisis. The stability and prosperity of Mexico and other Latin American countries are far more important to us than whether marijuana and cocaine are available legally rather than illegally in the United States.

Hunter Watson
Winter expat living in Mexico

davidbfpo

05-02-2009, 07:15 PM

Hunter,

Many of the themes have been discussed before, notably legalisation of drugs, gangs and narco-terrorism. All under various titles and not easy to locate readily.

I like the line that Mexico is far more "family" than other nations; a fact IMHO due to geography and with the immigration of Spanish-speakers demography.

Still hard decisions appear to elude politicians and the public in this sphere. Especially when labelled as a "war", rather than a health problem for example.

davidbfpo

jmm99

05-02-2009, 07:51 PM

if youse da same Yooper whose bio includes once upon a time Marine - and once upon a time prosecuting attorney - and who should know a lawyer with the initials JMM. If so, small world indeed.

No need to beware of David - he is a British gentleman. Also a collaborator, as they say, on the War Crimes thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?p=71027#post71027) here in Law Enforcement.

Advise if I am on target.

bourbon

05-02-2009, 10:22 PM

Welcome Hunter,

Several threads contain discussion on the issues you raise:
How America Lost The War On Drugs (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4475)
Drugs: The Legalization Debate (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6341)
Small War in Mexico (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5370)
General Barry McCaffrey: Mexico Trip Report (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6507)
The US Army on the Mexican Border (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4049)

Hunter Watson

05-03-2009, 02:37 AM

[QUOTE=jmm99;71038]if youse da same Yooper whose bio includes once upon a time Marine - and once upon a time prosecuting attorney - and who should know a lawyer with the initials JMM. If so, small world indeed.

No need to beware of David - he is a British gentleman. Also a collaborator, as they say, on the War Crimes thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?p=71027#post71027) here in Law Enforcement.

Advise if I am on target.

You are, M. It's a pleasure to meet you here, though I won't be be on line much until fall. We leave for our off-the-grid camp on Tuesday---by way of Nuevo Laredo.

I'll be interested in the war crimes thread. Thanks for the url.

Best,

H.

jmm99

05-03-2009, 03:30 AM

welcome to the shop - we'll expect a full report on Mexico this fall then. For the life of me, I can't see why anyone would not spend spring, summer and fall (all three months of them) in the Copper Country; but to each their own. :)

And I'm still here & working - you wussy. ;)

Regards,

Mike

Hunter Watson

05-03-2009, 04:10 AM

Hunter,

------------------------

Still hard decisions appear to elude politicians and the public in this sphere. Especially when labelled as a "war", rather than a health problem for example.

davidbfpo

------------------------

Thanks David,

Finding a solution is made difficult by taboos inhibiting public discussion of reform. The character and intentions of the messenger are attacked as a distraction from the public policy issues he raises. He tends to be labeled. In many ways it is similar to barriers erected to revising our Middle Eastern policy, in particular the *nature* of our relationship with Israel. In both cases the unintended consequences of the original policies have been devastating yet it remains terribly difficult to address reforms in public. In the first case the reformer is likely to be labeled a drug user with a personal agenda and in the latter, an anti-Semite. In both cases the labeling is designed to prevent reform.

Hunter

slapout9

05-03-2009, 06:03 AM

Senator Barney Frank D(Mass.) has a bill pending that would completely decriminalize Marijuana.

slapout9

05-03-2009, 11:47 PM

Link to one of the best reports I have seen. A lot of policy makers want like this but there is some important stuff in here.

http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3642&updaterx=2009-05-03+02%3A44%3A05

Bill Moore

05-04-2009, 06:29 AM

Slap,

Thanks, excellent video, very informative. Interesting theory (at least the way I interpreted it) that the North America Trade Agreement undermined the traditional requirement, putting thousands out of work, now they're working for the cartels.

I wonder if this is a prelude to what we're facing in the U.S. with globalism putting thousands out of work, will our society now be more vulnerable to criminal insurgencies? GM can't compete with Toyota, thousands unemployed, but the black economy needs employees.

Bill

slapout9

05-04-2009, 11:17 AM

Bill, I don't think Mexico will become a failed state like we usually mean. I think there is a strong chance it will become a "Kleptocracy" (state controlled by criminals) and if the US is not careful it will be to.

Jedburgh

06-05-2009, 01:59 PM

...Four times as many weapons --much of it military grade--enters Mexico from other areas. So if we are going to highlight the weapons issue, we need to see where most are coming from....
Miami Herald, 4 Jun 09: Mexico drug cartel's grenades from Guatemalan army (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/AP/story/1082449.html)

....Prosecutor Leonel Ruiz said investigators have determined that more than 3,800 bullets and 563 grenades seized outside Guatemala's capital in April following a shootout that left five anti-drug agents dead came from military bases in the Central American nation, which has become a major transshipment point for Colombian cocaine.

"They were taken from military bases but that doesn't necessarily mean the drug traffickers stole the weapons because it could be that they bought them from a third party," Ruiz said.

Ruiz said investigators identified the Guatemalan army's emblem on the grenades and munitions.

In the April weapons seizure, police also found eight anti-personnel mines, 11 M60 machine guns, bullet proof vests and two armored cars that investigators say belong to the Zetas (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?ots591=4888CAA0-B3DB-1461-98B9-E20E7B9C13D4&lng=en&id=97554), a group of assassins for Mexico's Gulf drug cartel.....

Jedburgh

06-11-2009, 02:04 PM

Miami Herald, 11 Jun 09: Mexican state bans cops from carrying cell phones (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/AP/story/1091456.html)

First local police in Monterrey lost their assault rifles after an armed confrontation with federal agents while protesting the arrest of cops for alleged gang ties. Now officers in Mexico's third-largest city will be stripped of cell phones.

The legislature in Nuevo Leon state, where Monterrey is located, unanimously approved a bill banning city and state police from carrying personal cell phones while on duty in an effort to prevent corrupt officers from communicating with drug gangs.....

Jedburgh

06-22-2009, 03:59 PM

GAO, 19 Jun 09: U.S. Efforts to Combat Arms Trafficking to Mexico Face Planning and Coordination Challenges (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf)

In recent years, violence along the U.S.-Mexico border has escalated dramatically, due largely to the Mexican government’s efforts to disrupt Mexican DTOs. U.S. officials note the violence associated with Mexican DTOs poses a serious challenge for U.S. law enforcement, threatening citizens on both sides of the border, and U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials generally agree many of the firearms used to perpetrate crimes in Mexico are illicitly trafficked from the U.S. across the Southwest border. GAO was asked to examine:

1. Data on the types, sources, and users of these firearms;
2. Key challenges confronting U.S. government efforts to combat illicit sales of firearms in the U.S. and stem the flow of them into Mexico;
3. Challenges faced by U.S. agencies collaborating with Mexican authorities to combat the problem of illicit arms; and
4. The U.S. government’s strategy for addressing the issue.

bourbon

07-09-2009, 09:46 PM

Charles Bowden is the preeminent scribe of the southern front in the ‘war on drugs’; his book Down by the River is to the drug war what Halberstam’s The Best and the Brightest is to the war in Vietnam. Two of his recent articles examine the lives of men, one wittingly engaged in, and another unwillingly trapped in the recent narco-violence in Mexico. Bowden uses these men’s stories to reveal a deeper picture of what is currently going on at the border.

The sicario: A Juárez hit man speaks (http://redblueamerica.com/blog/2009-05-04/harpers-mag-came-out-with-a-great-article-on-the-sicario-by-chuck-bowden-a-juarez-hit-man-speaks-5243), by Charles Bowden. Harper's, May 2009.

"We Bring Fear"- A reporter flees the biggest cartel of all—the Mexican Army (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/07/we-bring-fear), by Charles Bowden. Mother Jones, July/August 2009.

"Mexicans," he explains, "know the Army is a bunch of brutes. But what is going on now is a coup d'etat by the Army. The president is illegitimate. The Army has installed itself. They have become the government. They are installed in all the state governments. They control the municipal police. They are everywhere but the ministry of education—after all, they are too illiterate to run that. The president has his hands tied and he has tied them."

But there is another way of looking at the facts on that ground that is un-Mexican with its fetish of a pyramid of power going back to the Aztec emperors, and un-American with our conviction that every place is kind of like our nation only with unsafe water and spicy food. Maybe, the center no longer holds. In the last 10 years, since the death of Amado Carrillo Fuentes, head of the Juárez cartel and first among equals in the drug world, the industry has fragmented into independent baronies and smaller outlaw bands. Since the collapse of the PRI, the ruling party that lasted more than 70 years, Mexico's civil society has also fragmented, with power leaving the capital and recombining with the narcogangs. The Army, the largest gang, is not attempting to seize the bankrupt and withering state, but grabbing market share in a place whose two largest industries are supplying American drug habits and exporting millions of people. Cartels once imposed constraint of trade. But like soda-pop CEOs, the generals now angle to increase their share of the skyrocketing domestic drug market. And of course, the United States finances this move, via the Mérida Initiative, in the delusion that it is shoring up a republic south of the Rio Grande. We are staring into the future but using old prescription glasses. Murderous cholos on the corner in Juárez and troops marauding and robbing in the disguise of a Mexican drug war may be writing the future while President Obama and President Calderón wander in their bunkers of power, and cling to the fantasies of the ancien régime.

bourbon

08-03-2009, 02:16 PM

Mexican officials defend drug war strategy as deaths rise (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/stories/080309dnintjuarez.4018235.html), by Alfredo Corchado. The Dallas Morning News, August 2, 2009.

Although Gómez Mont did not elaborate on his comments, other Mexican and U.S. officials said the Calderón administration may begin withdrawing troops from Juárez and other trouble spots this fall, provided the situation has stabilized. The troops would be replaced by newly trained and better-paid police officers.

One senior Mexican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the military does not have the training or intelligence capabilities to effectively take on the cartels.

"The truth is we miscalculated," the official said. "The corruption is deeper than we ever imagined, and our human intelligence is weak."

bourbon

08-12-2009, 12:56 PM

U.S. Firms Probed in Mexico Oil Scam (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125003427006924119.html), BY SUSAN DAKER, ANA CAMPOY AND JOEL MILLMAN. The Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2009.

SAN ANTONIO -- The U.S. government is investigating whether several U.S. companies took part in a cross-border scheme to siphon oil products from Mexico's state oil company and smuggle them across the border.

The probe is part of a broader two-year joint U.S.-Mexican investigation into a network of Mexican oil smugglers supported by the Gulf drug cartel, one of Mexico's most powerful and brutal criminal organizations.

Oil theft has been common on both sides of the border for decades. But the breadth of the smuggling operation, extending from Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil company, to U.S. companies, is a troubling sign of the growing reach of cross-border organized crime, as well as the efforts by Mexican drug cartels to diversify their business.

bourbon

08-25-2009, 01:49 PM

Feds: Cartel turns to radio waves to avoid police detection (http://www.themonitor.com/articles/cartel-29905-radio-hundreds.html), by Jennifer L. Berghom. The Monitor (McAllen, TX), August 24, 2009.

The Gulf Cartel and the Zetas have established a sophisticated radio communications network that stretches hundreds of miles and has stymied recent law enforcement advances in monitoring cellular phones, according to court documents obtained Monday.

U.S. federal investigators believe the groups — who refer to themselves collectively as “The Company” — now rely on a daisy chain of linked local radio frequencies stretching from Guatemala to the Tamaulipas border to monitor movement of their drug loads and cash payments.

The system — as described in federal court filings in a case against its architect — allows cartel members to keep in constant communication over an ever-shifting series of public bandwidths while making it extremely difficult for authorities to listen in, the documents state.

Arjan

01-04-2010, 02:56 PM

CloseDanger

01-04-2010, 08:27 PM

The soft turn right on our border:

http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26905&highlight=mexico+islam

Original:
http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/islam-new-religion-rebellious-mexican-state-chiapas

And Hezbollah in Venezuela.

bourbon

01-08-2010, 02:22 PM

Outsmarted by Sinaloa: Why the biggest drug gang has been least hit (http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15213785). The Economist, Jan 7th 2010.

The Sinaloa organisation (named after a north-western state) is responsible for around 45% of the drug trade in Mexico, reckons Edgardo Buscaglia, a lawyer and economist at ITAM, a Mexico City university. But using statistics from the security forces, he calculates that only 941 of the 53,174 people arrested for organised crime in the past six years were associated with Sinaloa.

...“The government’s strategy is to focus on the weakest groups, so that the organised crime market will consolidate itself around Sinaloa,” says Mr Buscaglia. “They’re hoping to negotiate a decrease in violence with that one group.”

Insidious rise of Gulf Cartel (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6796067.html), by Dane Schiller. Houston Chronicle, Jan. 4, 2010.

Interviews, files and court records trace a syndicate's growth from small-time pot smuggling to a mega-empire with a hub in Houston

bourbon

01-25-2010, 04:02 PM

Kidnapping expert's family remains in limbo: His work for a Houston firm sent him to Mexico in ’08, and he hasn’t been seen since (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/6833460.html), by Dudley Althaus. Houston Chronicle, Jan. 25, 2010.

Batista's family and colleagues have received no ransom demands, no proof of life, nothing at all from his abductors.

AdamG

03-09-2010, 07:16 PM

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/08/get_out_the_white_linen_trouble_coming_to_the_stre ets_of_laredo

Local TV news in Texas reported that the Zetas have left Reynosa tonight. They've moved about 150 miles west to Nuevo Laredo. Sources reported the Zetas want to take over the city and make it their base of operations. The U.S. Consulate General's office already has confirmed a gun battle in Nuevo Laredo. ... According to the TV news cast the Zetas are already calling in reinforcements. Some 700 Zetas from around Mexico are joining the 500 already brought to the area last week. The Gulf Cartel also called in reinforcements last week and reportedly joined forces with La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and the Sinaloa Cartel."

Today's interesting twist : while the drug gangs continue their effort to blind the world on their activities (see http://cpj.org/blog/2010/03/eight-journalists-abducted-in-mexico.php and http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/stories/DN-blackout_08int.ART.State.Edition2.4b84845.html ), the locals are trying to get the word out with Twitter ( http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/03/08/mexico.crime.social.media/ )

Jedburgh

03-09-2010, 09:30 PM

CIFP, 8 Mar 10: Mexico: A Risk Assessment Report (http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1265.pdf)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

So far from God, so close to the United States; Mexico can be described as a nation of paradox. Being a relatively new democracy, Mexican politics and social development have progressed rapidly over the past several decades. Yet stable development and macro policy has not halted the downward trends and elevated risk factors in other areas of analysis. The controversial election of President Calderon by less than 1% in 2006 was a test of the fragile democratic process that had been opened to opposition parties in 1989. With his narrowly successful win of the presidency, an aggressive war against the narcotics trade was launched, escalating violent conflict both between rival drug cartels and between the cartels and the government. External economic and environmental shocks have compounded instability and the effectiveness of the current War on Drugs is questioned as government control continues to weaken and cartel influence increases. These factors lead this analysis to conclude that an overall downward trend can be recognized in Mexico.

AdamG

03-13-2010, 12:49 PM

Drug Wars in Tamaulipas: Cartels vs. Zetas vs. the Military (http://www.mexidata.info/id2570.html)
The Baxters on one side, the Rojos on the other...

Mexican military copter over U.S. neighborhood (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/state/Mexican_military_helicopter_seen_over_US_home.html )

*
U.S. downplays Mexican chopper incursion (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/state/US_downplays_Mexican_chopper_incursion.html)

BROWNSVILLE — U.S. officials Friday downplayed the sighting of a Mexican military helicopter hovering as long as 20 minutes over a residential area on the Texas side of the border this week, saying the incursion didn't cause alarm even though it hadn't been cleared in advance.

U.S. agencies could offer no reports of a follow-up investigation and no indication whether a Mexican explanation had been asked for or given.

AdamG

03-15-2010, 01:35 AM

At least 13 people were killed Saturday, some of them beheaded, around the popular beach resort of Acapulco, just as foreign visitors have begun arriving for spring break.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-mexico-acapulco14-2010mar14,0,5589087.story

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico (Reuters) – Gunmen in the drug war-plagued Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez killed two Americans and a Mexican linked to the local U.S. consulate, an attack U.S. President Barack Obama said "outraged" him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100314/wl_nm/us_obama_mexico_murders

AdamG

04-01-2010, 11:29 PM

Dozens of gunmen mounted rare and apparently co-ordinated attacks targeting two army garrisons in northern Mexico, sparking off gunfights that killed 18 attackers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/mexico/7544795/Gunmen-attack-army-as-Mexican-drugs-war-escalates.html

Juarez, Mexico (AHN) - Mexican Army soldiers started returning to their barracks Thursday in the border town of Ciudad Juarez as they turned most of their duties of fighting drug gangs over to the federal police. Instead, the Army will be assigned to monitor access to the city, international crossings and airports.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7018282746?Mexican%20Soldiers%20Turn%20Fight%20Aga inst%20Drug%20Gangs%20Over%20to%20Federal%20Police #ixzz0jtV1mE1i

Mexico military faces political risks over drug war
As the death toll keeps climbing in Calderon's crackdown on the drug trade, there is a growing feeling that the army has been less than effective as a police force.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/23/world/la-fg-mexico-army23-2010mar23

AdamG

04-02-2010, 06:55 PM

Mexico drug gangs turn weapons on army

In northern states this week, gunmen fought troops and sought to confine some to their bases by cutting off access and blocking roads. The aggression shows they are not afraid to challenge the army.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/latinamerica/la-fg-mexico-gunbattles2-2010apr02,0,5886596.story

At what point does a fight officially transition from "bandit gang" to "rebel army"?

jmm99

04-02-2010, 11:47 PM

from AdamG
At what point does a fight officially transition from "bandit gang" to "rebel army"?

when the incumbant government officially pronounces that it is involved in an internal armed conflict subject to Common Article 3 of the 1949 GCs, etc. - e.g., by enacting an "AUMF".

Before that, the incumbant government is likely to have begun a transition by changing the rules of engagement (less law enforcement oriented, more wartime oriented) and its legal rules (state of emergency, etc.).

Of course, the public relations people may still talk in terms of "bandits" - e.g., the ChiComs as they mopped up some one million ChiNat troops in 1949-1950. And, transition from a law enforcement to wartime approach can take time - e.g., US Civil War from 1861-1863 (adoption of Lieber Code).

Regards

Mike

AdamG

04-06-2010, 01:54 PM

Thanks, Mike.

Back on the border, the Sam Peckinpah-fest continues.

EL PASO – Texas law enforcement officials are bracing for a bloody weekend along the border, advising farmers to arm themselves as signs across northern Mexico point to a new escalation of violence after coordinated drug cartel attacks against the military this week.

*
Worries about IEDs

In Tamaulipas and Nuevo León, across the border from South Texas, the Gulf cartel is battling its former enforcers, the paramilitary group known as the Zetas.

In an alarming new development, the criminal groups are experimenting with improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, said Alex Posey, a Mexico security analyst with Austin-based Stratfor.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/040210dnintmexicoattacks.1b8b36a.html

AdamG

04-07-2010, 09:31 PM

Mexican 'Assassin Teams' May Target U.S. Law Enforcement, DHS Warns

Law enforcement officers in west Texas are on guard following an alert issued by the Department of Homeland Security warning of retaliatory killings for a recent crackdown on the Barrio Azteca gang.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/04/06/mexican-assassin-teams-target-law-enforcement/?test=latestnews

The Gulf-Zeta Split and the Praetorian Revolt

The recent split between two former allies in Mexico's criminal underworld has torn open a new chapter of violence in northern Mexico that has already tinged Monterrey and threatens to spread down the border line, Samuel Logan and John P Sullivan write for ISN Security Watch.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?ots591=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4&lng=en&id=114551

AdamG

04-09-2010, 07:02 PM

Sinaloa cartel wins Juarez turf war

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico – After a two-year battle that has killed more than 5,000 people, Mexico's most powerful kingpin now controls the coveted trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez. That conclusion by U.S. intelligence adds to evidence that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Sinaloa cartel is winning Mexico's drug war.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100409/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico;_ylt=AhV7hcQcU7lrbtMmWntOUAdvaA 8F;_ylu=X3oDMTJuZ2FxZzE2BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNDA5L2 x0X2RydWdfd2FyX21leGljbwRwb3MDNgRzZWMDeW5fYXJ0aWNs ZV9zdW1tYXJ5X2xpc3QEc2xrA2FwZXhjbHVzaXZlcw--

U.S. lawmakers: Rush supplies to Mexico

WASHINGTON — Following a meeting with President Felípe Calderón, U.S. lawmakers from Texas and Arizona said Thursday they would seek to expedite a transfer of helicopters, airplanes and equipment to Mexico

Congress has approved the transfer under the $1.3 billion Merida Initiative designed to help the Mexican government combat narcotics cartels operating in that country.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/6950760.html

AdamG

04-27-2010, 03:05 AM

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's drug cartels have changed tactics and are turning more attacks on authorities, rather than focusing their fire on rivals gangs, the country's top security official said Sunday. Interior Secretary Fernandez Gomez-Mont said at a news conference that two back-to-back, bloody ambushes of government convoys - both blamed on cartels - represent a new tactic.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/25/AR2010042501708.html

MORELIA, Mexico (AFP) - – Gunmen ambushed the motorcade of the top state security official in the Mexican state of Michoacan early Saturday in the latest round of drug-related violence that left 13 people dead around the country.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100425/twl-mexico-crime-drugs-violence-4bdc673.html

AdamG

05-20-2010, 03:51 PM

NPR has been doing some interesting interviews of late -

Drug cartels have been linked to corruption, killings and a spike in drug-related violence in Mexico. In a four-month investigation, NPR found evidence that the Mexican army is colluding with one of Mexico's most powerful drug mafias. NPR correspondent John Burnett shares what he uncovered in Mexico.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126977941

An NPR News investigation in Ciudad Juarez — ground zero of Calderon's cartel war — finds strong evidence that Mexico's drug fight is rigged, according to court testimony, current and former law enforcement officials, and an NPR analysis of cartel arrests.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126890838

and
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126894829

and
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126894829&ft=1&f=1003

tequila

05-20-2010, 05:06 PM

A good question would be: If the Mexican Army has decided to assist one cartel to "win" along the border, would that be a bad thing if it brought down violence?

tequila

05-21-2010, 01:11 PM

Border 'Mayhem'? An Illegal Immigration Fact Check Shows Violence Declining (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=98710)

But while several violent high-profile incidents in the Tucson, Arizona, sector have gained national attention and colored political rhetoric, an ABC News analysis of immigration and crime data, combined with interviews with law enforcement officials, shows something very different -- that violence and crime on the U.S. side of the 2,000-mile border with Mexico are generally on the decline.

By numbers alone, the border region appears, as Department of Homeland Security Secretary and former Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9077173) put it, is as "secure now as it has ever been."

http://a.abcnews.com/images/site/img_bullet_orangedot.gif More than 646 miles of the border are protected by fence, according to Customs and Border Protection.

http://a.abcnews.com/images/site/img_bullet_orangedot.gif More than 20,000 border patrol agents serve on the front lines -- an 80 percent increase over 2004 and the largest number in history.

http://a.abcnews.com/images/site/img_bullet_orangedot.gif The number of illegal immigrants apprehended along the border, which CBP uses to gauge the flow of migrants, is down nearly 55 percent from 2005. The agency captured 540,865 last year.

...

In many of the U.S. border communities themselves, local law enforcement officials report violent- and property-crime rates that have fallen over the past year, and, in several cases, are among the lowest in the country.

Cities like Tucson; Chula Vista, California; and Lardeo, Texas, have all seen year-over-year drops in violent crime, murder, and rape. El Paso, Texas, continues to have one of the lowest rates of violent crime of all U.S. cities, just behind Honolulu, according to the latest FBI Uniform Crime Report (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm).

"I don't see the border in chaos at all," said Octavio Rodriguez, who studies drug-related violence along the Mexican border at the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute. "The Tijuana-San Diego border area in particular is very secure."

AdamG

06-16-2010, 01:17 PM

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican soldiers confronted an armed group today in the city of Taxco, killing as many as 15 people, the state attorney general said. * He said the soldiers were carrying out a search operation in the town, which is popular with tourists for its historic role in the silver trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9QN9fXX5TlA

AdamG

07-03-2010, 02:29 PM

MEXICO CITY – The drug-cartel enforcer told an unsettling story: A woman who worked in the Mexican border's biggest U.S. consulate had helped a rival gang obtain American visas. And for that, the enforcer said, he ordered her killed.

Nonsense, says a U.S. official, who said Friday the motive for the slaying remains unknown.

The employee, Lesley Enriquez, and two other people connected to the U.S. consulate in the city of Ciudad Juarez were killed March 13 in attacks that raised concerns that Americans were being caught up in drug-related border violence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100703/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico;_ylt=AhDeOqC6D45e3RcJYmtGxuBv24 cA;_ylu=X3oDMTM3MjY1NGk2BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNzAzL2 x0X2RydWdfd2FyX21leGljbwRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRj cG9zAzcEcG9zAzcEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNtZX hpY2FubXVyZGU-

And this probably sounds like the gunfight crime scene in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

HERMOSILLO, Mexico -- A massive gun battle between rival drug and migrant trafficking gangs near the U.S. border Thursday left 21 people dead and at least six others wounded, prosecutors said.

The fire fight occurred in a sparsely populated area about 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the Arizona border, near the city of Nogales, that is considered a prime corridor for immigrant and drug smuggling.

The Sonora state Attorney General's Office said in a statement that nine people were captured by police at the scene of the shootings, six of whom had been wounded in the confrontation. Eight vehicles and seven weapons were also seized.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/01/AR2010070107064.html

slapout9

07-03-2010, 04:32 PM

And this probably sounds like the gunfight crime scene in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Great movie;)

Misifus

07-03-2010, 06:41 PM

For you Sam Peckinpah and The Wild Bunch fans, you may recall the opening shootout (bank robbery) was in the fictional town of San Rafael, TX. The final shootout (where Angel gets his throat cut) was in the fictional ruins known as Mapache's Hideout. Both of these locations are in reality located in Mexico, in the state of Coahuila. San Rafael,TX actually being the town of Parras de La Fuente, and Mapache's Hideout actually being the ruins of the old hacienda La Cienega del Carmen which is just a short ride outside of Parras, if one knows the way. I frequent Mexico often on my motorcycle and was just at these locations last November. The old ruins are now being converted to a bed & breakfast.

Much of what is written about Mexico and the narco-wars is highly inaccurate. Intel in the US tends to be "think-tank" generated with little to no real knowledge of how things really work south of the border. Most of the links provided in this thread so far, while having some validity, much of what is written is simply done so in order to get the attention of an audience. The real intel picture, and hence conclusions to be derived thereof, remains elusive. However, I am willing to attempt to answer an questions that y'all may have based on my border journeys.

Let me start by posing a question to the audience here. When a links say that cartels are battling over a "corridor," what do you think that really means?

davidbfpo

07-03-2010, 07:01 PM

Misifus,

Thanks for the update on Peckinpah geography.

As to your:
Let me start by posing a question to the audience here. When a links say that cartels are battling over a "corridor," what do you think that really means?

A "corridor" for me - from afar - is a relatively safe route for moving goods and persons and in the Mexican context, drugs and people towards the US border. Safe from Mexican law enforcement, perhaps not rivals; either because only a few give information or law enforcement, if willing, are out-gunned.

bourbon

07-03-2010, 09:26 PM

The real intel picture, and hence conclusions to be derived thereof, remains elusive. However, I am willing to attempt to answer an questions that y'all may have based on my border journeys.
Is there a relationship between the recent violence and the end of PRI rule?
Does the government favor any particular Cartel?
What effect does the domestic drug market play?
What role do foreign groups play?

Misifus

07-03-2010, 09:44 PM

A "corridor" for me - from afar - is a relatively safe route for moving goods and persons and in the Mexican context, drugs and people towards the US border. Safe from Mexican law enforcement, perhaps not rivals; either because only a few give information or law enforcement, if willing, are out-gunned.

Contrary to popular belief, as popularized by the press, there really is no "corridor" that is being battled over. It's not like they are fighting over highway, roads, trails, etc., and what one would normally consider some type of geographical route leading into the US. What they are fighting over is who runs the business. In other words, who gets to receive shipments from the suppliers and who gets to push them forward into the US. There is no "corridor" in the classic sense of the word to do battle over. Several cartels could use the same corridors if they wanted to. It's not a geographical issue in terms of narco vs. narco.

The battles tend to happen near the larger border cities simply because that's where the guys who work in the "prep for crossing" side of the business reside. Although one should note that battles are also occurring in the Pacific states of Mexico where the "receiving side" of the business resides, and also where the bosses tend to reside. Nevertheless, both coasts are points of ingress as well as the Guatemala border.

The US border is porous and the drugs can come in anywhere. However, what is not reported by the press is that most of the narcotics coming into the US are actually coming through the border by legitimate modes of transportation, i.e., commercial truck and rail. The common perception in the US is that it is smuggled in by individuals crossing the desert in some type of Ranger patrol fashion, or by an individual automobile loaded with contraband. While this does occur, these are for the most part lone operators and are minor in terms of the total smuggling picture. One must think of the transportation in terms of logistics and probabilities of detection - a risk management study. Legitimate transportation is how most of the stuff gets here. Detection technology is insufficient to stop this, and even if it was sufficient, the US government is not really interested in narcotics interdiction - it's too close to home.

Misifus

07-03-2010, 09:58 PM

(1)Is there a relationship between the recent violence and the end of PRI rule?
(2)Does the government favor any particular Cartel?
(3)What effect does the domestic drug market play?
(4)What role do foreign groups play?

Here are my opinions.

(1) No. PRI dominance or lack thereof has for the most part no bearing. PRI, however, appears to be back on the rise.

(2) No. But everybody hates the Zetas. Very bad form for them to turn on the their former employers. The Mexican government will turn a blind eye to any attacks on the Zetas by any other cartels. The Zetas have pretty much been pushed out of Nuevo Laredo and are now being pushed out of Reynosa. They are being exterminated as they are pushed further east. Having set a very bad precedent, things may even calm down when they are finally eliminated.

(3) It has been growing. This is actually an aberration in Latin America. Drugs are considered something for Gringos, not for Latinos. The only exception has been marijuana, and even its use was not that common. There are actually signs that the domestic markets will dwindle if the status quo returns.

(4) Foreign groups play a minimal role, with the exception of suppliers, and their role now is as always, to supply.

bourbon

07-03-2010, 11:34 PM

What is the domestic demand for methamphetamine?

What is the illicit market for small arms like? Prices, availability, types, price trends over the past few years, etc.

What caused the split between Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel?

How effective has the Mexican Army been against the cartels? What has been the civilian response to Mexican Army deployment in the north?

What inhibits the government’s effort to capture Chapo Guzman? How would the death or capture of Chapo affect the Sinaloa Cartel, and the overall war between the cartels?

Misifus

07-04-2010, 01:14 PM

...What caused the split between Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel? Simple. Zetas saw the business as being more lucrative than being henchmen.

...What has been the civilian response to Mexican Army deployment in the north? As far as I can tell, the civilians in the border towns welcome the army. It appears to cut down on the random casualties. There were a few protests to the army presence at the border, but these seem to have been orchestrated by Gringo "human rights" types that were quickly run off.

What inhibits the government’s effort to capture Chapo Guzman? How would the death or capture of Chapo affect the Sinaloa Cartel, and the overall war between the cartels? Chapo, and also La Familia (a different cartel) enjoy a folkloric reputation. Chapo's capture would simply result in a replacement, the business would go on.

slapout9

07-08-2010, 12:34 PM

Video from Today show on Mexican Pirates:eek: Fisherman being threatened on lake that is on the border.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp=38143803&#38143803

AdamG

07-19-2010, 04:14 PM

Inspired by what they saw on TV?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20010874-501465.html

(AP) Members of a northern Mexico drug gang rammed a car that may have been packed with explosives or inflammable material into two police patrol trucks in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, killing two officers and a medical technician and wounding nine people.

Federal police said Thursday's attack — which may be one of the first uses of an explosive-packed car in Mexico — was in retaliation for the arrest of a top leader of the La Linea drug gang, Jesus Acosta Guerrero, earlier in the day.

Added by Moderator; cross refer: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=10961

OfTheTroops

07-20-2010, 11:42 PM

I believe an additional 15 stars on the flag would be rather fetching. The 14th largest economy, beautiful beaches and coastline, and a significantly smaller southern border sounds like a win win win to me...hypothetically speaking of course

AdamG

07-22-2010, 06:28 PM

Rep. Sue Myrick, a Republican from North Carolina, is worried that Iranian agents are slipping across the U.S.-Mexico border after receiving training in Venezuela. Myrick, the ranking member of the House Subcommittee on Intelligence Community Management, says Farsi tattoos are popping up in prisons in the United States, and she sees this as proof of Iranian influence.

Last month she asked the Department of Homeland Security to investigate. But the intelligence community doesn't buy what critics call a confusing conspiracy theory.

http://politics.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2010/7/22/sue-myricks-iranian-influence-theory.html

slapout9

07-23-2010, 04:42 AM

Another Quinton Tarintino masterpiece!

"We didn't cross the border,the border crossed us"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIxcVzwLR1k

AdamG

07-23-2010, 02:10 PM

MEXICO CITY – Eight suspected drug gang gunmen died in a battle with Mexican soldiers in the remote mountains of northern Chihuahua state, the federal Public Safety Department said Thursday.

The department cited an internal army report saying the clash occurred near the rural town of Madera, about 145 miles (230 kilometers) south of the U.S. border.

The gunmen apparently opened fire on an army patrol, but the Defense Department did not offer any information on the attack or the identity of the attackers. The area is frequently used by gangs to produce and traffic drugs.

*

On Wednesday, the border city of Nuevo Laredo was practically paralyzed by late-night gunbattles in which gangs forced citizens from their cars and used the vehicles to block streets.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100722/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico

AdamG

08-03-2010, 12:54 AM

A Mexican drug cartel has reportedly put a hefty price tag on the head of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

As parts of Arizona's immigration law, SB 1070, went into effect last week, a Mexican drug cartel sent out text and audio messages offering rewards to anyone who would join its fight, a source who says his wife received the message told MyFoxPhoenix.com.

"It's offering a million dollars for Sheriff Joe Arpaio's head and offering a thousand dollars for anyone who wants to join the Mexican cartel," the man, who wants to remain anonymous, told the station.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/08/02/mexican-drug-cartel-allegedly-puts-price-arizona-sheriffs-head/

AdamG

08-03-2010, 11:38 AM

Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists. So far this year, eight reporters have been gunned down. Last week, five were reported kidnapped — four of them in Durango state and one in Zacatecas state.

Some 25,000 thousand people have been killed over the last 3 1/2 years in drug-related violence. Journalists in some parts of the country have stopped covering the drug trade entirely after their colleagues have been kidnapped, killed or threatened. Others say they have limited reporting on crime to only what is in official government press releases. Some even say they report whatever the local cartels order them to print.

"This record level of violence is really unprecedented," says Carlos Lauria, head of the Americas program at the Committee to Protect Journalists.

By the organization's tally, more than 30 Mexican reporters have been killed or have disappeared since President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels in December 2006.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128929784

bourbon

08-03-2010, 09:19 PM

A Mexican drug cartel has reportedly put a hefty price tag on the head of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
Murky source of information, and I always got the sense that Sheriff Arpaio liked being in the limelight too much. The whole thing smells to me.

AdamG

08-16-2010, 02:28 AM

Officials from Mexico's largest television network Televisa say an explosive device went off in front of their station in the northern city of Monterrey.

The attack followed a similar incident at their studios in Matamoros, in the north-east, just hours earlier. While the blasts caused some damage to buildings, no one was injured.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10982203

AdamG

08-25-2010, 07:07 PM

Mexico marines find 72 bodies at ranch, navy says

Authorities would not comment on reports they may have been Central or South American migrants. The 58 men and 14 women were found in violence-racked Tamaulipas state.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-bodies-20100825,0,2229485.story

AdamG

09-28-2010, 03:16 AM

Report: Mexico is not Colombia, here's why

Comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton comparing Mexico's drug war to a Colombia-style "insurgency" touched off a flurry of debate over the parallels between the two conflicts. Seeking out the facts, L.A. Times foreign correspondents conclude that the secretary's comments were like comparing "apples and oranges."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laplaza/2010/09/report-mexico-not-colombia.html

Also

MORELIA, Mexico -A small-town mayor and an aide were found stoned to death Monday in a drug-plagued western state, the fifth city leader to be slain in Mexico since mid-August.

http://www.aolnews.com/story/small-town-mayor-stoned-to-death-in/654518?cid=10

davidbfpo

09-29-2010, 09:25 PM

A Canadian think tank report on Mexico, a viewpoint IIRC not seen here and so maybe of interest:http://www.cdfai.org/PDF/Mexico%20-%20Current%20and%20Future%20Political%20Economic%2 0and%20Security%20Trends.pdf

Summary:
Since the election of President Felipe de Jesus Calderón of the National Action Party in 2006, and his commitment to address the rising power of narcotics cartels, Mexico has undergone a serious increase in violence and militarization. Although the Mexican state is itself not threatened, some analysts view the “Colombianization” of the nation place a risk to many of the democratic advances that have been made since the “apertura” of the country in the 1990s. The country’s economy has been impacted not only by the rising levels of violence, but also by the serious financial downturn in the United States in 2008-2009, reflecting the country’s continuing over-dependence on the U.S. market. The Mexican economy has also been challenged by increased competition from other low-cost
manufacturing countries. Canada has significant economic interests in the country, from basic commodity trade to major investments in the energy and mining sectors. How will the political, security and economic challenges Mexico faces impact Canadian interests?

AdamG

10-12-2010, 08:22 AM

While three congressmen held a Thursday afternoon press conference about border security, Mexican soldiers were engaged in a gun battle that left six people dead on the other side of the Rio Grande.

Mexico's Ministry of National Defense (SEDENA) is reporting that the gun battle in the same area being searched for the body of missing American David Hartley.

The SEDENA reported that the battle took place near the rural town of Barriales around 3 p.m. Thursday.

Army officials said that a military aircraft was performing aerial reconnaissance work in the area when pilots spotted a suspicious truck hiding in the brush.

The military aircraft went down for a closer look but came under fire.

The SEDENA reported that Mexican soldiers returned fire and killed six men who were protecting some kind of clandestine construction project.

Authorities also reported that a Mexican soldier was also wounded in the battle.

Mexican soldiers reporting seizing ammunition and the following other items:

- 7 Assault Rifles
- 38 clips
- 1 Rocket Launcher
- 1 Dodge Ram Truck

Barriales is located near the ruins of Guerrero Viejo, a Spanish colonial town that is seasonally flooded by waters from Falcon Lake.

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=523516

AdamG

10-13-2010, 03:40 PM

Nothing says "back off" like a bloody head in a rice sack.

(CNN) -- The lead Mexican investigator in the Falcon Lake case, Rolando Armando Flores Villegas, has been killed, his severed head delivered Tuesday in a suitcase to the Mexican military, officials told CNN.

"His head was delivered to the army garrison this morning in a suitcase after he failed to report back home last night," Zapata County, Texas, Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez Jr. said.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/10/12/texas.falcon.lake.head/index.html

AdamG

10-15-2010, 02:26 PM

See also
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-hartley-murder-2010-10

AdamG

10-19-2010, 01:00 AM

Murky source of information, and I always got the sense that Sheriff Arpaio liked being in the limelight too much. The whole thing smells to me.

Drug-smuggling gangs in Mexico have sent well-armed assassins, or "sicarios," into Arizona to locate and kill bandits who are ambushing and stealing loads of cocaine, marijuana and heroin headed to buyers in the U.S., the Department of Homeland Security has warned Arizona law enforcement authorities.

In a memo first sent in May but widely circulated since, the department said a group of "15, very well-equipped and armed" assassins complete with body armor had been sent into the state to identify, locate and kill the drug thieves, who are thought to be independent operators.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/oct/15/mexican-assassins-headed-arizona/

slapout9

10-21-2010, 04:48 PM

Link to news report just in.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39772666/ns/world_news-americas?GT1=43001

carl

10-21-2010, 05:30 PM

The report states the Guard soldier was found dead in Ciudad Juarez. There was no mention of the circumstances of his death nor did the story indicate the soldier was on duty at the time. The will be more details to come I reckon.

slapout9

10-21-2010, 06:04 PM

AdamG

10-28-2010, 04:37 AM

Run away! - Sir Robin.

The entire police force in a small Mexican town abruptly resigned Tuesday after its new headquarters was viciously attacked by suspected drug cartel gunmen.

All 14 police officers in Los Ramones, a rural town in northern Mexico, fled the force in terror after gunmen fired more than 1,000 bullets and flung six grenades at their headquarters on Monday night.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2010/10/27/2010-10-27_entire_police_force_in_los_ramones_mexico_quits _after_gunmen_attack_headquarters.html#ixzz13cnuTB q1

Tom Odom

11-18-2010, 03:46 PM

America's Third War: Texas Strikes Back (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/americas-war-texas-mounts-counterinsurgency-effort/)
“I never thought that we’d be in this paramilitary type of engagement. It's a war on the border," said Captain Stacy Holland with the Texas Department of Public Safety.

Holland leads a fleet of 16 state-of-the-art helicopters that make up the aviation assets used by the Texas DPS to fight Mexican drug cartels.

In recent years, the cartels have become bolder and more ruthless.

Backed up by

the Student Senate at Texas A&M (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/16/university-senate-support-state-rep-controversial/)
and the Hulk and Steven Segal (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/hulk-actor-join-arizona-sheriffs-illegal-alien-crackdown-posse/)

Tom

Class of 1976
Texas A&M

slapout9

11-18-2010, 03:58 PM

Backed up by

the Student Senate at Texas A&M (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/16/university-senate-support-state-rep-controversial/)
and the Hulk and Steven Segal (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/hulk-actor-join-arizona-sheriffs-illegal-alien-crackdown-posse/)

Tom

Class of 1976
Texas A&M

It is most definitely a War.....and we are losing and our fearless leaders (in D.C.) are completely clueless about it....or just don't care:mad:

AdamG

11-18-2010, 05:19 PM

Backed up by

and the Hulk and Steven Segal (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/hulk-actor-join-arizona-sheriffs-illegal-alien-crackdown-posse/)

Steven Segal is a pretty heavy hitter... (and I do mean heavy).

:wry:
I'll be in town all weekend, folks. Try the chicken!

Meanwhile, the Mexican Navy (Marines) to the rescue -
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5giL5CXmsImEwCF2_HUa5pprnQNvg?docId=5143826

*
Also

Gulf cartel members tried to mount a rescue operation for the criminal organization’s leader, Ezequiel Cardenas Guillen, who was killed last week by Mexican marines, a navy spokesman said.

Cartel gunmen used moving vehicles and sharpshooters positioned on rooftops to try to rescue Cardenas, known as “Tony Tormenta,” during the operation mounted by marines Friday in the northeastern border city of Matamoros, navy spokesman Rear Adm. Jose Luis Vergara said.

The shootout with the drug boss and his bodyguards lasted nearly three hours.

The cartel’s gunmen tried to break through the security perimeter established by marines to rescue Cardenas, Vergara said.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2010/11/mexican-navy-gulf-cartel-gunmen-tried.html

slapout9

11-18-2010, 05:36 PM

Good article by John P. Sullivan from the Small Wars Journal. IMO it provides a better description of what the enemy actually looks like and what they will evolve into. Except John's an optimist IMO could be much worse:D

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/05/future-conflict-criminal-insur/

slapout9

11-18-2010, 06:03 PM

Take a look at what the Mexican drug Cartel looks like:eek: H/T to John Robb at GG for posting the link.

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662638/infographic-of-the-day-the-power-structure-of-a-mexican-drug-cartel

tequila

11-18-2010, 06:49 PM

To fit into the Clausewitz argument - how are the attempts to stop drug importation into the U.S. in any way comparable to war?

slapout9

11-18-2010, 07:07 PM

To fit into the Clausewitz argument - how are the attempts to stop drug importation into the U.S. in any way comparable to war?

Think of Cartels/Gangs as Countries willing to use violence to enforce their policy of selling drugs in our country is OK.

tequila

11-18-2010, 08:10 PM

So the Sinaloa Cartel = the UK during the Opium Wars?

I find the analogy a very difficult one to buy. Was Canada engaged in de facto war against the U.S. during Prohibition? Was the Chicago Outfit?

slapout9

11-18-2010, 08:24 PM

So the Sinaloa Cartel = the UK during the Opium Wars?

I find the analogy a very difficult one to buy. Was Canada engaged in de facto war against the U.S. during Prohibition? Was the Chicago Outfit?

If you use violence against a "Policy" of the US or any Government it is war, but because it is what you might call Low Intensity Conflict it is often not viewed as War. And remember this is my interpretation of how I think it might be viewed through the Lens of CvC. My personal opinion is somewhat different.

tequila

11-18-2010, 09:12 PM

slapout9

11-18-2010, 10:56 PM

But does the Cartel use systematic violence against the U.S. Government as a policy?

One could argue that it is doing so in Mexico against the Mexican government, but the overwhelming majority of victims of Cartel violence are in fact opposing Cartel members.

1-The Cartel uses selective violence against the US as a policy.

2-But in general (and this is what I believe) they engage in "Special Warfare" which is much worse than the CvC version.

tequila

11-19-2010, 01:48 PM

2-But in general (and this is what I believe) they engage in "Special Warfare" which is much worse than the CvC version.

What does this mean?

AdamG

11-19-2010, 02:26 PM

To fit into the Clausewitz argument - how are the attempts to stop drug importation into the U.S. in any way comparable to war?

The Texan answer :

To combat the cartels, the Texas Department of Public Safety is launching a counterinsurgency.

To combat the cartels, the Texas Department of Public Safety is launching a counterinsurgency.

Tactical strike teams send field intelligence they gather to Austin to a joint operation intelligence center, or JOIC in military terminology.

“It certainly is a war in a sense that we’re doing what we can to protect Texans and the rest of the nation from clearly a threat that has emerged over the last several years,” said Former FBI prosecutor Steve McCraw, who runs the undeclared "war."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/americas-war-texas-mounts-counterinsurgency-effort/#ixzz15jqUarzb

slapout9

11-19-2010, 03:11 PM

What does this mean?

They are organized very much like a resistance movement. They have a Guerrilla force, they have an auxiliary, they have an underground and they have a command and control element(s).

tequila

11-19-2010, 04:09 PM

I am unimpressed by the remarkably undetailed Fox News piece, which seems intended more to generate publicity for the Texas Department of Public Safety than anything else. To call such an effort a "counterinsurgency" is to mangle the term beyond meaning.

They are organized very much like a resistance movement. They have a Guerrilla force, they have an auxiliary, they have an underground and they have a command and control element(s).

Really? So, again, how are they different from other criminal organizations which employ violence against their rivals or the local population (and in the overwhelming majority of cases avoid violence against agents of the state)? Shall we begin qualifying all criminal organizations as resistance movements engaged in "special warfare?" Also, if drug smuggling qualifies as "special warfare", I have a hard time seeing how this is somehow much worse in any way than war as fought by insurgent movements, much less between states. Certainly the U.S. side of the Mexican border is not seeing anything remotely similar to the carnage occurring monthly in, for example, Iraq.

My problem with calling law enforcement "war" is (1) the mangling of definitions - crime is not war, and criminals are not warriors or soldiers (2) criminal offenses do not require military solutions - indeed, military solutions will often make the problem worse or create problems where there were none before.

slapout9

11-19-2010, 07:11 PM

Really? So, again, how are they different from other criminal organizations which employ violence against their rivals or the local population (and in the overwhelming majority of cases avoid violence against agents of the state)? Shall we begin qualifying all criminal organizations as resistance movements engaged in "special warfare?" Also, if drug smuggling qualifies as "special warfare", I have a hard time seeing how this is somehow much worse in any way than war as fought by insurgent movements, much less between states. Certainly the U.S. side of the Mexican border is not seeing anything remotely similar to the carnage occurring monthly in, for example, Iraq.

My problem with calling law enforcement "war" is (1) the mangling of definitions - crime is not war, and criminals are not warriors or soldiers (2) criminal offenses do not require military solutions - indeed, military solutions will often make the problem worse or create problems where there were none before.

1-Whenever armed foreign nationals cross our border and commit violence against the citizens of the US that is war regardless of how small the actual combat may be.

2-It is special warfare because they are not uniformed regular forces representing the Mexican government, but it is war for the reason I stated above.

3-Crimes are committed by citizens inside their own country.

4-In many ways resistance movements are organized exactly like criminal organizations, the difference is the motive profit vs. a political motive.

5-Since you are a Marine instead of calling it special warfare it might make more sense to think of it like 4GW as described by TX Hammes.

I think I covered all your points, if not ask some questions.

tequila

11-19-2010, 08:31 PM

1-Whenever armed foreign nationals cross our border and commit violence against the citizens of the US that is war regardless of how small the actual combat may be.

I disagree. A Mexican hitman crossing the border to kill a American dope dealer does not constitute Mexico leveling war upon the United States, just as the existence of Edgar Valdez Villarreal ("La Barbie") does not constitute a war upon Mexico.

In many ways resistance movements are organized exactly like criminal organizations, the difference is the motive profit vs. a political motive.

Yes, but Clausewitz did not note that war was an extension of economics.

5-Since you are a Marine instead of calling it special warfare it might make more sense to think of it like 4GW as described by TX Hammes.

I'm not a fan of the 4GW construct. I think it clouds the debate more than it illuminates.

DTOs are not terrorist groups or nation-states. They are essentially smuggling organizations who use borders to charge rents to international customers. They have no political motive beyond seeking official noninterference in their business activities. The only thing that makes an analogy with war even partially feasible is the level of violence they can generate, which is more a commentary on the weakness of the Mexican state than a note on the strength of the DTOs themselves.

slapout9

11-19-2010, 08:39 PM

2-It is special warfare because they are not uniformed regular forces representing the Mexican government, but it is war for the reason I stated above.

Did you read #2 and special warfare combines economics, subversion,propagnda and anything else they can use that is why it is called special warfare.

I agree with you Clausewitz was not an economist:D:D:DI couldn't help it.

carl

11-20-2010, 03:53 PM

It is most definitely a War.....and we are losing and our fearless leaders (in D.C.) are completely clueless about it....or just don't care:mad:

What more can we do? We are already helping the Mexicans, quietly, with some things in Mexico. The border, is a bit disturbing but historically, bandits or Indian raiders or smugglers are nothing new on the border and almost all the violence is still south. The Fox story quotes the Texas DPS as saying contraband coming north is in smaller loads indicating law enforcement on this side of the border is do a good job pressuring the smugglers. What else can we do?

slapout9

11-20-2010, 05:18 PM

What more can we do? We are already helping the Mexicans, quietly, with some things in Mexico. The border, is a bit disturbing but historically, bandits or Indian raiders or smugglers are nothing new on the border and almost all the violence is still south. The Fox story quotes the Texas DPS as saying contraband coming north is in smaller loads indicating law enforcement on this side of the border is do a good job pressuring the smugglers. What else can we do?

Collapse some of the main drivers of the situation such as we really need to look at some type of rational legalization of marijuana and we need some type of humane immigration control, not necessarily citizenship but good documentation of who is here and why they are here.

carl

11-20-2010, 05:44 PM

I wholeheartedly concur with both of those and with idea of getting at the "drivers".

AdamG

11-22-2010, 01:47 PM

Hundreds of people have fled a small Mexican town on the U.S. border, the latest incident in which the country's war against drug traffickers is driving refugees from the violence.

Around 300 people have abandoned the town of Ciudad Mier, local authorities from a nearby town said Thursday, fleeing violence from drug traffickers who were threatening residents.

Ciudad Mier, a stone's throw from the border of Texas, is one of numerous cities on borderlands believed to be in dispute by two rival drug cartels. More than 60 people have been killed in the town of about 6,000 people this year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703848204575608990334970362.html

*

In Mexico, Tijuana's police chief is known as an enforcer: In his two years as chief, Lt. Col. Julian Leyzaola has purged his force of corrupt cops and returned a sense of safety to the city.

But human rights groups say he has gone too far — even using torture — in his battle against some of the most powerful criminal syndicates in the world.

http://www.npr.org/2010/11/19/131458817/tijuana-police-chief-battles-corruption-cartels

AdamG

11-26-2010, 12:53 AM

..drug violence has painted Monterrey with the look and feel of the gritty border 100 miles (160 kilometers) to the north as two former allies, the Gulf and Zetas gangs, fight for control of Mexico's third-largest - and wealthiest - city.

The deterioration happened nearly overnight, laying bare issues that plague the entire country: a lack of credible policing and the Mexican habit of looking the other way at the drug trade as long as it was orderly and peaceful.

*

The Mexican government announced Wednesday it is ordering a significant boost in military troops and federal police in the northeastern border state of Tamaulipas and neighboring Nuevo Leon, home to Monterrey.

The two states are under the heaviest attack since the cartel split earlier this year. Both have witnessed increasingly horrific violence spilling into daily life and claiming civilians, while politicians and journalists are either silenced or killed.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_DRUG_WAR_MEXICO_BESIEGED_CITY?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=US

AdamG

12-14-2010, 05:59 PM

About 150 miles north of Guatemala City, deep in the jungle, is a military base where Guatemalan Special Forces are being trained secretly by U.S. Green Berets.

The U.S. officers say the Guatemalan troops are committed to the task of defeating the Mexican drug cartels and are training tirelessly.

*

Police in the suburbs of Guatemala City say many farmers who live along the Mexico-Guatemala border have relinquished their land to Los Zetas, a notorious Mexican cartel known for its brutal tactics. Others have abandoned the border region anticipating that their property would be confiscated and their families would soon be targets.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/14/americas-war-secretly-trains-guatemalan-forces/#ixzz186syvJqM

AdamG

12-28-2010, 05:19 PM

COBAN, Guatemala (AP) - The Guatemalan military declared a state of siege Sunday in a northern province that authorities say has been overtaken by Mexican drug traffickers.

The government initiated the monthlong measure in the Alta Verapaz province to reclaim cities that have been taken over by the Zetas drug gang

http://www.elpasotimes.com/juarez/ci_16898176?source=pkg

AdamG

12-29-2010, 04:13 PM

GUATEMALA CITY – Men claiming to belong to the Zetas drug gang forced radio stations to broadcast a threat of war in a northern Guatemalan province where the government declared a state of siege last week, authorities said Tuesday.

The men arrived at three radio stations in the northern city of Coban and threatened to burn the premises down and kill journalists and their families if the message was not broadcast, Interior Ministry spokesman Nery Morales said.

The message, which the radio broadcasters read out Monday, threatened violence if Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom does not fulfill unspecified promises. It said "war will start in this country, in shopping malls, schools and police stations."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/12/28/drug-gang-suspects-threaten-war-guatemala/#ixzz19WA5OwgP

slapout9

12-29-2010, 04:53 PM

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/12/28/drug-gang-suspects-threaten-war-guatemala/#ixzz19WA5OwgP

Good Guerrilla Warfare is very effective:eek:

AdamG

01-02-2011, 04:32 PM

Mexican government forces are outgunned in their fight against drug-trafficking organizations, facing an adversary that in some ways is like an insurgency, prompting the country to look for help not just from the United States, but from a country to the south, Colombia.

Colombian forces have been battling a big guerrilla army with increasing success. It turns out that Colombia's expertise in counterinsurgency may help Mexican forces in their fight against the cartels.

http://www.npr.org/2011/01/02/132492582/mexico-seeks-lessons-from-colombias-war-on-farc

Mexico's drug war continues to claim victims at an astounding rate, and there are no signs that the violence will ease any time soon. In 2010 alone, the death toll from the violence was more than double the number of U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan and Iraq during the past seven years. Liane talks to NPR's Jason Beaubien about whether the situation might improve in 2011.
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/02/132583031/Mexicos-Intensifying-Drug-War-Spills-Into-2011