Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

[Jedburgh]

Moderator's Note

This thread until January 22nd 2015 was entitled 'Terrorism, CT and internal issues in Saudi Arabia', the title has been changed to reflect a wider remit and the new title is 'Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)' (ends).


Today on BBC: Saudis 'foil oil facility attack' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4747488.stm)

Saudi security forces have foiled an apparent suicide car bomb attack on a major oil production facility in the eastern town of Abqaiq. Guards opened fire on at least two cars carrying explosives as they tried to ram the gates. Two guards were killed...By coincidence, the Jamestown Foundation just published this report today (which was actually in their pub Terrorism Monitor yesterday): Saudi Oil Facilities: Al-Qaeda's Next Target? (http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=165)

Former CIA agent Robert Baer has considered the implications of terrorist attacks on Saudi oil facilities, writing, "At the least, a moderate-to-severe attack on Abqaiq would slow average production there from 6.8 million barrels a day to roughly a million barrels for the first two months post-attack, a loss equivalent to approximately one-third of America's current daily consumption of crude oil. Even as long as seven months after an attack, Abqaiq output would still be about 40 percent of pre-attack output, as much as four million barrels below normal—roughly equal to what all of the OPEC partners collectively took out of production during the devastating 1973 embargo" (see Robert Baer's Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold our Soul for Saudi Crude). An al-Qaeda assault on Abqaiq would have the added propaganda effect of killing Americans. Abqaiq is an oil-company town; in 2005, nearly half of its approximately 2,000 inhabitants were U.S. citizens.

[SWJED]

... on the timely Jamestown Foundation report.

[Jedburgh]

Follow-up report from CSIS: The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security (http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060227_abqaiqattack.pdf)

It is too early to know the full details of what actually took place at the Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, but early reports indicate that an attempted attack was foiled by Saudi security forces on February 24, 2006. The news caused oil prices to jump more than $2 a barrel.

The reaction of the oil market—that is all too aware of geopolitical, security, and economic risks—is expected. The attack comes amidst continuing instability in Iraq, the uncertainty regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, and the ongoing violence and supply disruption in Nigeria.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer and exporter. It holds 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves (261 billion barrels), produces 12.5% of the world’s oil production (9.0-9.5 million barrels a day), and exports 16% of world’s total exports (7.5 million barrels a day). Furthermore, the Kingdom has the largest surplus oil production capacity (approximately 1.1-1.8 million barrels a day.

The stability of the global oil market depends not only on the Kingdom’s capacity to meet shortages in oil supply, but also in its ability to reassure the market. In the past, Saudi Arabia has played the role of “swing producer” to meet shortages in supply. Now, the attention is focused on the Kingdom’s ability to meet global oil demand and protect its key oil facilities.

In the case of Abqaiq, even if some of the facilities were destroyed, Saudi Aramco has claimed that it has backup and redundant facilities to produce at near capacity. The same fears about Saudi energy security arose after the May 2004 attack in Yanbu. During that incident, the Saudi security forces were also able to suppress the attack. The terrorists were quickly killed and the facilities in Yanbu were not in danger. That, however, did not stop speculation about Saudi energy security.

[SWJED]

19 May Washington Times - Inside the Ring (http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060518-114144-7475r_page2.htm).


... Border officials in Iraq report that few jihadists are crossing into Iraq from Syria to strap on a bomber's vest and kill innocent men, women and children. The reason: better border control and fewer Arab men willing to travel to Iraq to kill democracy.

But on the southwest border, Saudis continue to use the desert as a pathway to murder. One route takes them to Najaf and the north to Baghdad to meet up with henchmen of al Qaeda lieutenant Abu Musab Zarqawi.

We are told border guards are surprised at the education level of the Saudis. They include professionals — teachers, doctors, engineers — ready to wear a bomb and walk into a market or mosque before detonating it...

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 16 Aug 07:

Extremist Reeducation and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373620)

For the past three years, the Saudi government has been quietly engaged in an ambitious strategy to combat violent Islamist extremist sympathies through an innovative prisoner reeducation and rehabilitation program. Following the May 2003 Riyadh compound bombings (http://www.intelcenter.com/SCB-v1-4.pdf), the regime adopted a series of security measures to fight Islamist terrorism. In addition to the aggressive counter-terrorism steps taken by the government, Saudi officials have also sought to combat the support of extremist ideology in the kingdom through a series of lesser-known "soft" counter-terrorism measures aimed at combating the appeal of extremist takfiri beliefs. These measures have included a sophisticated hearts and minds campaign consisting of a combination of state-sponsored education programs, coordinated public relations and media efforts and the deployment of the government's considerable religious resources. It is from this background that the reeducation program has emerged. While only three years old, the program was initially kept a secret in order to encourage its success away from media attention. Thus far, it has generated some noteworthy results, and it is now discussed openly and frequently in the Saudi media. The program's structure, process and relative successes, however, are all but unknown in the United States....

[bourbon]

Saudis arrest 208 men in terror sweep: Arrests ‘pre-empted an imminent attack’ on oil installation, statement says (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22007035/). Associated Press, Nov. 28, 2007

Hit Abqaiq and/or Ras Tanura, during winter months to maximize effect on the far enemy in the West, and hit the near enemy -- Saudi state. Hit two birds with one stone? Or are they mutually exclusive in AQ thinking?

[kehenry1]

Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.

[Jedburgh]

Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.
It was posted and reposted in newsmedia and not a few blogs. Here's one link:

US Navy steps up fuel deliveries to Gulf forces (http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2007/November/theworld_November679.xml&section=theworld&col), Reuters 23 Nov 07

....One of the largest commercial tanker hires is on a time-charter basis, the length of time a ship is sought, stipulating a period of 90 days to carry a range of fuels between locations in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The time charter, which begins in early December and allows for multiple journeys in Gulf waters, is to carry a minimum of 310,000 barrels of jet and marine fuel, some of it JP5.

“What’s most interesting is the time-charter in the Gulf. It’s a big ship and here we have a commitment for a lot of movement of fuels, backwards and forwards down to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman,” the Gulf source said.

“This confirms there is going to be a lot of activity, possibly a serious demonstration to Iran that the military means to protect the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

He pointed out that Saudi Arabia had already promised US forces long-term fuel supplies this year, known as term tenders.

In February, oil industry sources told Reuters Riyadh had raised the amount of jet fuel earmarked for the military from 1.5 million barrels last year to close to eight million in 2007.....

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 24 Jan 08:

Jailing Jihadis: Saudi Arabia’s Special Terrorist Prisons (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373926)

Saudi Arabia is nearing completion of new purpose-built prison facilities for its program of rehabilitation and counseling for Islamist militants. Under this program five new specialized prisons have been built in Riyadh, Qassim, Abha, Dammam, and Jiddah over the span of approximately nine months. These new facilities have been designed to facilitate the dialogue process while at the same time housing individuals assessed to be significant security risks. These five new prisons are each designed to hold up to 1,200 prisoners.

The decision to build specially-dedicated facilities in which to focus on the counseling program was based upon a number of considerations. First and foremost was the fact that the existing prison facilities were not designed to promote dialogue and it was determined that successful advancement of the rehabilitation program could best be done through new specially-designed facilities. Furthermore, these new facilities would make the classification and segregation of detainees easier. The classification of detainees into those more predisposed to dialogue, and then separation of them from other more militant prisoners, would encourage and facilitate the work of the Advisory Committee, the Ministry of the Interior body that runs the rehabilitation program.....

[Jedburgh]

TWQ, Spring 08: Al Qaeda's Third Front: Saudi Arabia (http://www.twq.com/08spring/docs/08spring_riedel.pdf)

The war in Saudi Arabia is being waged over the biggest stakes of all: control over Islam's holy cities and oil wealth. Yet, having withdrawn most of its forces from Saudi Arabia in August 2003 after al Qaeda began its war, the United States remains on the margins. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia is waging an aggressive counterattack. How has bin Laden implemented his vision thus far, and how effective has Saudi Arabia's counterterrorist campaign been in stopping him? Has the U.S. military withdrawal from Saudi Arabia had any effect on bin Laden's plan for Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East? What effect has the war had on Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, especially toward its U.S. alliance?

[davidbfpo]

Try: Saudi Arabia showcases its controversial programme to rehabilitate convicted jihadis through art; on this link http://www.frontlineclub.com/club_articles.php?id=319

davidbfpo

[Jedburgh]

International Affairs, Jul 08: Islamist Violence and Regime Stability in Saudi Arabia (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/download/-/id/2300)

....In this article I posit that Saudi Islamism is a heterogeneous phenomenon which needs to be broken down into smaller components, each to be analysed separately. One recent study (http://moyen-orient.sciences-po.fr/articles_pour_revue_en_ligne/17042007%20Hegghammer%2031_saudi_arabia_background er.pdf) identified three distinct Islamist currents in the Kingdom: rejectionism (or extreme pietism), represented by Juhayman al-Utaybi and the 1979 Mecca incident; reformism, which produced the so-called Sahwa movement of the early 1990s; and jihadism, associated with the Saudi fighters in foreign conflict zones. In the following, I will apply the social movement theory perspective specifically to the Saudi jihadist movement. I will trace the evolution of Saudi jihadism since the 1980s and try to explain why it ‘came home’ in 2003 and not before. The findings derive from analysis of a large collection of jihadist texts and videos, as well as extensive fieldwork conducted in Saudi Arabia between 2004 and 2007. After outlining the origin and characteristics of the Saudi jihadist movement, I will look at Al-Qaeda’s foothold in, and strategy towards, Saudi Arabia between 1996 and 2001. Finally I will explain why the QAP campaign was launched and why it eventually failed.....

[jmm99]

Today, the stick as the Kingdom gets down to trying its backlog of AQ detainees.


Yahoo News
Saudi Arabia indicts 991 suspected Al Qaeda militants
By Caryle Murphy – Wed Oct 22, 4:00 am ET
....
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia has begun the judicial process for putting on trial nearly 1,000 suspected Al Qaeda militants accused of terrorist-related crimes dating back to 2003, the Saudi Interior Minister announced.

"We have started to bring before the judiciary 991 people implicated in various incidents," Interior Minister Prince Naif bin Abdul Aziz told the Saudi Press News Agency late Monday. "Each case will be examined in stages."

This is the first time the government has disclosed the number of defendants accused in connection with the wave of terrorist violence that hit the nation.
......
Last month, Prince Naif told a group of visitors that the suspects "all will be transferred to the judiciary to give its verdict on them in accordance with what God has ordained to prevent sedition.... We don't punish anybody except on the basis of a court verdict," local papers reported. .....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081022/wl_csm/otrials

[Bob's World]

With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.

[120mm]

With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.

Here, you pick a "wicked problem". Continue support the status quo and risk the almost certain eventual pot boiling over of extremism. Stop supporting, or even attack the status quo, and almost certainly guarantee a new Iran for Wahhabism.

You'd almost certainly have to engage some pretty radical folks to keep a lid on, with the accompanying danger of supporting folks who will end up attacking you anyway.

[Bob's World]

Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.

[120mm]

Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.

The key issue is control. I sincerely doubt it is possible for our polity, or military decision-makers to NOT dominate and attempt to control anything within their purview.

So, the question is, schto delyat? What do we do, going forward, in the imperfect nature of our system?

[Fuchs]

WikiLeaks cables: Jihad? Sorry, I don't want to miss Desperate Housewives (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/07/wikileaks-cables-letterman-housewives-saudi)


The leak is incredibly embarrassing to the government, but that embarrassment looks largely well-deserved because the government is overrated.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to LWOT:
Saudi Arabia on January 8 began the trial of 16 suspected members of al-Qaeda accused of killing a policeman, plotting to attack government officials and military weapons facilities, smuggling weapons and training militants to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan (Reuters). The suspects are just a few of several thousand arrested in the Kingdom's clampdown on militancy between 2003 and 2006, of whom most have already faced trial according to the Saudi government, though human rights groups disagree and have said the government continues to hold thousands of political prisoners under the pretense of militancy.

Link to Reuters report:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/08/us-saudi-militants-trial-idUSTRE80708W20120108

Link to LWOT briefing, KSA is just one item:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/10/the_lwot_us_citizen_charged_with_terrorism_offense _in_florida

[davidbfpo]

Today I have renamed this thread, it was 'Failed Attack in Saudi Arabia' and after that attack had moved along to other internal issues of terrorism.

There is a parallel thread 'US policy with an ally like the Saudis...', it appears not to cover acts of terrorism and the Saudi response. It is at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=2119

[davidbfpo]

Recent disorder in the Eastern Province received some coverage here and then faded away:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16543013

This link is to a background comment, although the author is Washington-based let's say his viewpoint is slanted:http://www.opendemocracy.net/joshua-jacobs/quiet-war-in-saudi-arabia

I know disorder in this reportedly mainly Shia minority dominated province has long been feared by outsiders, being adjacent to the oilfields.

[davidbfpo]

An odd IMO BBC World Service interview with a Saudi Princess in exile in Acton, West London:
... there are many changes she would like to see in Saudi Arabia - but that now is not the time for women to be allowed to drive.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17446831

If you Google Princess Basma Bint Saud Bin Abdulaziz there are similar intervews.

[BenR]

In my research in the topic of radicalism in Saudi Arabia I believe I have identified one of the primary underlying issues that drive this matter. This concerns the inability for the regime to create a reconciliation between modernity and the foundational elements of the Saudi state.

By this I refer to Abdul Aziz's utilization of the ultraconservative branch of Sunni Islam to unifying the tribes in place of what we in the west would view as nationalism. The very nature of Ibn Tamiyah's critique of progress that is latent within the doctrinal facets of Wahhabism leads to an underlying tension between material security (economy, military etc) and metaphysical security (narrative, norms, culture) within the modern Saudi state.

The overflow effect of this, of course, is a predilection towards violent offensive Jihad within a minority of the population who seem to find their underlying ontological outlook compromised by such a pervasive paradox.

[davidbfpo]

A slightly odd BBC report, by Frank Gardner, who is in Saudi Arabia - where he was shot and crippled in 2004. This report starts with 'Saudis build 1,000-mile Yemen border fence', a 'Morice Line' again:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22086938

His first report aims to:
..to unpick why the Arab Spring has not happened in the Kingdom.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22050745

On SWC we have debated whether a fence or 'Morice Line' can work and in a variety of settings: French ruled Algeria (where the Morice Line was built), Rhodesia and Afghanistan. Not to overlook the US-Mexico border. Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7260&highlight=morice

The Saudis of course have what other builders did not, money and more money.

Whether a fence is enough of an answer to the pressures within Saudi Arabia is a moot point. See thread on internal troubles:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=16968

[bourbon]

The Saudis of course have what other builders did not, money and more money.
Which is the important point. Because Saudi defense/security procurement are enrichment mechanisms for Saudi royals, middlemen and various western lackeys – first. Actual needs of state, second.

A certain % of deals goes to commissions and kickbacks – so the incentive is to run-up the biggest bill possible. And then they cant operate, service or maintain any of the equipment – so that is a new contract, and new round of kickbacks.

Problems occur when a contract is too small for a kickback – so some particular items are not even purchased. Items like air-filters for tanks – small line item on a budget, but you cant operate tanks in the desert without them.

I have no doubt that this wall will include billions in techno-crap.

[bourbon]

SA firm Denel in Saudi drone deal - South Africa's arms manufacturer Denel appears intent on selling missile-carrying drone aircraft to Saudi Arabia (http://mg.co.za/article/2013-04-05-00-sa-firm-denel-in-saudi-drone-deal), by Phillip De Wet. Mail & Guardian (South Africa), 05 Apr 2013.

According to a respected specialist newsletter, Intelligence Online, engineers from the Denel Dynamics division are working with the Saudi military to create an armed version of the Seeker 400 drone, which Denel has marketed for surveillance use. Such drones, Intelligence Online says, would be capable of carrying Denel Dynamics' Mokopa or Impi missiles.

The Mokopa is an anti-tank missile touted for its accuracy and the Impi is intended as a multipurpose missile that can carry smaller anti-personnel payloads. The latter was developed specifically for use with lightweight aircraft.

The Seeker 400 has a range of up to 250km, putting many Middle Eastern hot spots within range of units based in Saudi Arabia. But the primary target for Seeker missions is expected to be strikes on suspected terrorists similar to the US's infamous strikes in Pakistan. The craft can be operated for more than 16 hours at a time, making it capable of "loiter and strike" missions.


Related? Seems a natural compliment to a border wall; plus a possible strike capability into Yemen.

[davidbfpo]

The fence project is an interesting sign of how the relationship between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the Yemen has developed. For decades KSA has sought to maintain some control in Yemen, principally by subsides and bribes to many individuals, tribes and others. Now a fence is needed, has this influence evaporated?

I suspect that no Saudi will actually work on building the fence, although IIRC most Yemeni were expelled after the invasion of Kuwait.

[Fuchs]

Moderator's Note

Posts 22-26 were in a stand alone thread 'Saudis to build 1k border fence' until today and have been merged into this main thread (ends).


Saudi–Yemen barrier
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi%E2%80%93Yemen_barrier


It's not so much a fence as it is a barrier against vehicles, and it's not only about immigration but also about marking the somewhat disputed border.


ICE Case Studies
Number 197, Nov., 2006
Saudi Arabia - Yemen Border Dispute (http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/saudi-yemen.htm)
By Chris Murphy

[davidbfpo]

This thread has posts on the official Saudi programme to de-radicalise and a clearly PR article by AFP appeared today:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/2013/04/20/Saudi-opens-luxury-rehab-center-for-Qaeda-militants.html

Three key facts given:
Just under 3,000 [Islamist prisoners] will have to go through one of these centers before they can be released....a total of 2,336 Al-Qaeda prisoners have now been through Saudi rehabilitation schemes....The percentage of those who rejoin the deviant minority does not exceed 10%.

[davidbfpo]

A ten point article 'The Riyadh Compound Bombings: Ten Years, and Ten Lessons, Later' by Dr. Thomas Hegghammer, from CSIS, which details:
It is hard to overestimate the political impact of the Riyadh bombings. These caused a major shift in Saudi attitudes toward Islamist extremism and a complete overhaul of the Saudi internal security apparatus. The terrorism campaign—and the Saudi response to it—also did much to change Western perceptions of Saudi society, many of which, in retrospect, were biased and flawed. Finally, the campaign backfired against Al-Qaeda, leading to its demise as an organization in the kingdom. In short, the learning curve was steep for everyone involved. Specifically, the experience taught us ten important things about terrorism and Saudi Arabia.

Link:http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55301428

I do wonder if the apparent success of Saudi CT plus is dependent on their wealth, few other nations could afford the options it has used.

[Bill Moore]

Recently posted by Debka.com


Disturbances sweep across E. Saudi oil region
Despite the news blackout imposed by Riyadh, DEBKAfile reports widespread riots and clashes have been sweeping the oil-rich Eastern Provinces of Saudi Arabia between Shiite demonstrators and security forces, leaving unknown numbers of dead and wounded.

I have no idea if this is an accurate report, but if it is then it is very important and relevant to the ongoing region wide ethnic war between Shiite and Sunnis.

[SWJ Blog]

Assessing Two Countering Violent Extremism Programs: Saudi Arabia’s PRAC and the United Kingdom’s Prevent Strategy (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/assessing-two-countering-violent-extremism-programs-saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-prac-and-the-united-king)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/assessing-two-countering-violent-extremism-programs-saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-prac-and-the-united-king) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A staunch conservative preacher in Saudi Arabia has changed his views, to the alarm of the regime:
Mr. Awda had something akin to a conversion moment during the Arab uprisings of 2011, and since then has become a passionate promoter of democracy and civic tolerance.

....even published a book called “Questions of Revolution.” Promptly banned here but widely disseminated on the Internet, the book drew on Islamic texts and history to reach some very unorthodox conclusions: that democracy is the only legitimate form of government; that Islam does not permit theocracy; that separation of powers is required; that the worst despotism is that practiced in the name of religion.

He openly declares his admiration for the democratic inclinations of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is anathema to the Saudi royals.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/05/world/middleeast/conservative-saudi-cleric-salman-al-awda.html?emc=edit_ee_20140405&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67232673&_r=0

[davidbfpo]

A Huffington Post article, the full title being 'A Saudi Psychologist on Jihadism, Clerical Elite and Education Reform':http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-braude/a-saudi-psychologist-on-j_b_5182524.html?utm_hp_ref=world&ir=WorldPost

This is a clue:
Clinical psychologist Abdullah al-Garni serves a niche clientele: recovering jihadists. He heads the mental health division at the Mohammed bin Naif Center for Counseling and Advice, a halfway house for members of Al-Qaeda and other groups who have served prison time in Saudi Arabia or at the U.S. Government-run Guantanamo Bay detention facility.

The most interesting Q&A is:
Q: How did Islam come to be used as a justification for terrorism among Saudis?
A: It is a matter of how a group of so-called clerics interpret, or misinterpret, Islam. In Surat Al 'Imran (http://quran.com/3/7) of our Holy Book, it says, "No one knows [the Qur'an's] true interpretation except God, and those who are well-grounded in knowledge say, 'We believe in it. All of it is from our Lord.'" But some clerics stop in the middle of the verse, and just say, "No one knows [the Qur'an's] true interpretation except God and those who are well-grounded in knowledge." Then they put it to you that they alone are well-grounded in knowledge, and go on to use the half-sentence as a divine mandate for their own authority. If we claim that our religion is a peaceful religion, calling for peace between nations and between religions, then these false foundations need to be addressed.

[davidbfpo]

This week Richard Barrett, ex-diplomat (UK & UN posts) and now with the Soufan Group, commented that trained Saudi military personnel are defecting to ISIS. He drew attention to the oddity in a February 2014 statement by the King that fighting abroad meant a five year prison sentence for citizens and seven and half years for those who serve in the military.

His estimate, based on visits to Saudi Arabia, was that 2,500-3,000 have gone to fight; with three hundred in rehab centres (maybe intercepted before leaving or returned).

In my background reading this week I found suggestions that the Saudi army were deploying to the northern border (maybe easier to defect then?).

Copied to here from the current thread on Iraq.

[carl]

I wonder how this all will turn out. I don’t mean from a standpoint of what the takfiri killers will do, they will keep going until stopped or dead; but what we will do.

It occurs to me that most if not all of our trouble, the world’s trouble, with the takfiri killers comes from one basic thing, Saudi money. Without Saudi money wahabiism would be a vile footnote and most all of its manifestations and things it influences would have to stand financially on their own, which they couldn’t do well since they aren’t as good at building economies as they are at mayhem.

It also occurs to me that Saudi money ultimately depends upon the forbearance and goodwill of the West. If oil had become useful in the 18th Century instead of the 20th, there would not be a Saudi Arabia. Some Western country, or countries, would have just annexed the place. We allow them to keep their country and sell us the oil that they cannot extract without our help because of our sense of fair play, self determination for indigenous people and all that. They in turn use a large part of that money to finance those who would destroy us and have for decades. Noble intentions on our part don’t seem to be working out so well.

Given that things with the takfiri killers aren’t slowing down but speeding up, can we allow this to go on? We can run ourselves ragged chasing individuals with murder on their minds for many years to come or we can do something about depriving the Saudis of their money and perhaps cut things off at the source. We will be forced into that I think.

The question then becomes how to do it. Robert Baer wrote a book about this (I stole his ideas) years ago and suggested that oddly enough the above circumstances plus the fact that most of the Saudi oil fields are in east and in Shia areas makes Iran a natural long term ally.

What do you guys think of all this in whole or in parts? I don’t see things going on like this for many more decades without us having to do something relatively radical.

[Red Rat]

Hard to get a good feel as to what is happening in Saudi Arabia, but patently the fissures are showing more and more there as well. Low level disorder in the Shi'a Eastern Provinces and a growing Salafists terrorism problem from the Northern Provinces.

The latest statement from the King is a sign of the times:

"Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah ordered all necessary measures to protect the Kingdom against potential "terrorist threats," a Royal Court statement said Thursday"

King Orders High Alert To Fight Terror (http://www.arabnews.com/news/592956)

[AmericanPride]

The Saudi royal family has always played this balancing game between itself and the fundamentalist establishment. This alliance goes back hundreds of years. This is why the Saudis maintain the National Guard (which rivals the Army in size) under direct command of the King and independent of the Defense Ministry. KSA is an inherently unstable state and I would not be surprised if there is concern about the reliability of the armed forces to maintain the royal family's security in the event of a major fundamentalist offensive.


The question then becomes how to do it. Robert Baer wrote a book about this (I stole his ideas) years ago and suggested that oddly enough the above circumstances plus the fact that most of the Saudi oil fields are in east and in Shia areas makes Iran a natural long term ally.

I think this is one of the few times you and I are not in disagreement. Let's break out the champagne. We're already in cahoots with fundamentalist regime in Saudi Arabia and historically there's been no hesitation in supporting fundamentalist movements, so Iran seems like a good as an ally as any. It's also a larger, more stable, and more populous country than KSA - not to mention it's form of fundamentalism is more tame than Wahhabism. At some point in the near future it will be important for the US to make amends with Iran and develop an effective relationship - the instability in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan make that a necessity.

[davidbfpo]

A rare report spotted:http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/05/us-saudi-border-idUSKBN0FA04620140705

The KSA has a problem:
The kingdom .....said in May it had detained 62 suspected al Qaeda militants with links to radicals in Syria and Yemen who it said it believed were plotting attacks on government and foreign targets in the kingdom.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the KSA has an interesting way to get Saudi foreign fighters back home from Syria.

Dozens of Saudis fighting in Syria have voluntarily surrendered to security authorities, said Sami Al-Saleh, Saudi ambassador to Jordan.
The statement comes in the wake of the recent surrender of 28-year-old Khalaf Al-Enezi, who approached the Saudi Embassy in Amman after fighting in Syria for over 18 months.
“Al-Enezi is not the first nor the last person to surrender at the Jordanian border,” said Saleh. “He is one of dozens of Saudi young men who were misled.”
The Interior Ministry previously said that the Royal Court had approved a 15-day grace period for former fighters to come forward and return to the Kingdom.
“Many young Saudis benefited from the grace period granted by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah in March,” he said. “Since that time, we have had individual cases of surrender."

[davidbfpo]

Within a broad article by Peter Oborne, a British journalist writing in a US outlet, was this snippet, with my emphasis in bold:
This is because ISIS is not a mutation of Islam, as Obama has asserted. It is all too faithful to the literalist Saudi interpretation of Sunni Islam as set out by its 18th-century founder Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab. Hence the extraordinary popularity of ISIS within Saudi Arabia itself. According to a recent poll in the Saudi-funded Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, an astonishing 92% of Saudis believe that ISIS conforms to the values of Islam and Islamic law.

Link:http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/09/25/peter-oborne-why-this-war-on-isis-will-backfire-on-the-west/

Even leaving aside my sceptcism of polling in a place like KSA we know there is support for a harsh version of Islam, not to that extent.

[AmericanPride]

David,

It's an open secret that Wahhabism as defined by the Saudis is the state ideology of the kingdom. The clerical establishment is given great leeway and deference, as well as practical control over many of the government's ministries, including education. What is the difference between the extremists in the Saudi government and the extremists picking up arms in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere? And we should also question exactly what information the Saudi population receives about ISIS anyways - what's being said in the mosques and the schools? Given the widespread discontent in KSA, it would not surprise me at all that Saudi supportive opinion of ISIS is well north of 50%.

[davidbfpo]

From Twitter referring to a Saudi MInistry of Information press release:
MoI gives more detail of IS infiltration attempt. 2 killed when confronted by BG patrol 1 used SVEST during attempt to convince to surrender.
Two more killed after being surrounded inside Saudi Territory with one using SVEST. They carried grenades, assault riffles, and SVEST's cash
I understand ISIS hates the KSA regime, but why try this?

(Added) A little more in the NYT, minus anything to say it was ISIS:www.nytimes.com/2015/01/06/world/middleeast/saudis-report-deadly-border-clash-with-infiltrators-from-iraq.html? (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/www.nytimes.com/2015/01/06/world/middleeast/saudis-report-deadly-border-clash-with-infiltrators-from-iraq.html?)

[davidbfpo]

The Chinese surface to surface missiles (SSM) that the Saudi Strategic Missile Force have are IMHO overlooked, so good to see a review article with many links by a counter-proliferation SME:http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/saudi-rattles-its-saber/


Saudi Arabia clearly envisions its strategic missile force as a deterrent to the growing missile arsenals of its neighbors....Analysis of new bases near Ad-Dawadmi and Ash-Shamli suggest that Tel Aviv and Tehran remain the most important strategic targets for the Saudi Strategic Missile Force.....Some Saudi clerics and analysts describe the Houthi threat as more dangerous to the stability of the Kingdom than even the Islamic State. Like Iran, Yemen has purchased a significant number of Scud missiles from North Korea that might threaten Saudi Arabia if the government were to become hostile.

(Ends with) It is hardly surprising that, in such an environment, Saudi Arabia would seek to improve its ability to deter missile attacks. The display of the DF-3 missiles, along with Saudi Arabia's generally increased openness about its missile capabilities, is intended to ensure that those capabilities will be well enough understood by potential adversaries for Riyadh to enjoy their full deterrent value Well that is reassuring or is it?

There are two other threads on Saudi Arabia, one on the sometimes fraught relationship with the USA and another on internal security. I expect there are posts elsewhere, notably over the reaction to a likely Iranian nuclear weapon capability.

[davidbfpo]

It later emerged that one of the dead soldiers was no ordinary border guard but the commander of Saudi Arabia’s northern border forces, Brigadier General Awdah al-Balawi. This suggests that the attack, far from being random or opportunistic, had been carefully targeted and perhaps based on inside information regarding the general’s whereabouts.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/06/saudi-arabia-anxious-ideological-links-isis

The wider problem:
...it is in no position to confront Isis at the ideological level. The problem here is that Isis and the Saudis’ Islamic kingdom are ideologically similar, so attempts to challenge Isis on ideological grounds risk undermining the Saudi state too.

[davidbfpo]

The Saudis are building a 600-mile-long “Great Wall” - a combined fence and ditch - to separates the country from Iraq to the north. ....The proposal had been discussed since 2006, at the height of the Iraqi civil war, but work began in September last year after Isil’s charge through much of the west and north of the country gave it a substantial land border with the Kingdom to the south.
Link, which ahs a map and graphic:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/11344116/Revealed-Saudi-Arabias-Great-Wall-to-keep-out-Isil.html

[Bill Moore]

Originally posted under Middle East General, but on second thought I believe it deserves it own thread for awhile.

John Robb provides an analysis on the ISIS attack on Saudi that is both interesting and flawed. He loses credibility when he implies ISIS coordinated the Paris attacks instead of ISIS's competitor for the Caliphate which is al-Qaeda. Nonetheless, the rest of the analysis is thought provoking.

Robb suggests the reduction of oil prices is principally directed at ISIS, but if ISIS picks up their operations the price of oil could quickly soar to $150.00 a barrel. That would result in weakening the West economically and strengthening ISIS (and Russia), so embracing the State Department's version of strategy, gee I hope that doesn't happen.

Robb also makes an interesting point that ISIS needs to keep moving to stay alive (attract recruits and funding). Overstated in some aspects, but I tend to agree there is an element of truth in this, which is why AQAP was quick to claim responsibility for the attacks in Paris. We now have market based jihad, where competitors are seeking to dominate the jihad market (recruits and funding). So far the competition is based on a zero-sum approach versus a win-win approach. I could see a future where the larger company buys out the smaller companies, but that will take time.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2015/01/saudi-arabia-on-the-edge-of-an-abyss.html


Here why this attack is significant.

It tells us that ISIS is starting to focus on Saudi Arabia --> with good reason. The reason is that there's simply no other way to unite the various groups under the ISIS banner. ISIS, like all open source movements, needs to keep moving in order to stay alive (like a shark). Right now, ISIS has stalled. A jihad to retake the holy sites from the corrupt regime in Riyadh can serve as a simple plausible promise that can reignite the open source war ISIS started, on a global scale.

[davidbfpo]

From this armchair KSA is simply not as united against ISIS as the regime thinks or we hope. Yes it has money, an authentic religious regime, a robust internal security apparatus and more. On the downside a number of Saudi military have gone to fight with ISIS (Post 33) and even with some doubts over accuracy (from Post 39):
According to a recent poll in the Saudi-funded Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, an astonishing 92% of Saudis believe that ISIS conforms to the values of Islam and Islamic law.

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo article 'How Saudi Arabia’s harsh legal punishments compare to the Islamic State’s', from which the Twitter image originates from. As the author concludes relationships with partners are rarely completly "black -v- white" regarding common standards:
...for many Americans, the extremist group's rise is also bringing with it a renewed skepticism about American allies in the region.Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/21/how-saudi-arabias-harsh-legal-punishments-compare-to-the-islamic-states/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7z1HcsCUAEliRF.jpg

[davidbfpo]

Two very different viewpoints on Saudi Arabia today, after the death of the King (in de facto power since 1995). One from The Soufan Group:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-the-death-of-a-king/ and the second from The Guardian:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/king-abdullah-of-saudi-arabia?

[davidbfpo]

From Newsweek:
Dozens of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters have infiltrated (Rafha) a Saudi Arabian border town via Iraq before melting away into the general population, according to claims by the terror group’s supporters on social media.
Link:http://www.newsweek.com/isis-attack-saudi-border-post-and-infiltrate-town-302652

Wiki shows Rafha as having 80k inhabitants in 2010 and it is located close to the border. You may have to alter the scale to see the location:http://www.maplandia.com/saudi-arabia/northern-frontier/rafha/

[davidbfpo]

A rather breathless CNN reporter is on the Saudi-Yemen border with the Saudi border police. He gives some stats, 42k illegal perons detained in six months, including children smuggling Qat across - leaving unexplained who for - and in three months 500k tonnes of Qat seized.
Link:http://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2015/02/01/pkg-robertson-saudi-yemen-border.cnn

[davidbfpo]

A short round up by WINEP, which includes this - which I'd not seen before about the Iraqi-Saudi cross-border raid by ISIS In January:
...one of the four Saudi militants who attacked the kingdom's border from Iraq in January had been previously arrested for al-Qaeda ties. He was eventually released on bail, according to Saudi authorities.
Link:http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/saudi-arabias-old-al-qaeda-terrorists-form-new-threat

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo journalist visits a Saudi jail for terrorists undergoing rehab:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-rare-look-inside-a-saudi-prison-that-showers-terrorists-with-perks/2015/03/01/2da9dfb4-a64e-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html?wpmk=MK0000203

How effective is this?
Gen. Mansour al-Turki, spokesman for the powerful Ministry of Interior, whose Mabahith secret police run the five high-security prisons....Turki said that about 20 percent of those who have gone through the rehabilitation program have returned to terrorism-related activities. Many rights activists think the failure rate is higher than Saudi officials admit.

Note in 2013 (Post 28) this was the failure rate:
The percentage of those who rejoin the deviant minority does not exceed 10%.

So if we accept officialdom's statement the programme now has higher failure rate!

[davidbfpo]

An overview of KSA after the Yemeni operation, by a British SME, Alastair Crooke:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/saudi-arabia-yemen-east_b_7163776.html

[davidbfpo]

Not my title, but that in The Daily Telegraph and a short piece by:
Nawaf Obaid is a Visiting Fellow and Associate Instructor at Harvard Kennedy School and a former strategic affairs advisor to the Saudi government.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/11583598/Saudi-Arabia-is-emerging-as-the-new-Arab-superpower.html

Hardvard bio:http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/experts/2699/nawaf_obaid.html

To date the interventioin in the Yemen hardly appears positive, ah well the Saudis will learn (again) and of course few nations have offered to shed their blood.

[davidbfpo]

Another article by Nawaf Obaid (bio in previous post) and is hardly reassuring:
Saudi Arabia has for past several years been laying the groundwork for a civil nuclear program with no PMDs (possible military dimensions). However, there is a strong possibility that the Kingdom might begin to engage in contingency planning for a defensive nuclear program with PMDs. This planning represents an emerging Saudi nuclear defence doctrine.

(Later) None should doubt that the Saudi scientific community possesses the know-how and technical infrastructure to realize this nuclear defense doctrine
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11705381/Nawaf-Obaid-Saudi-Arabia-is-preparing-itself-in-case-Iran-develops-nuclear-weapons.html

Somehow I doubt KSA has such a national capability, given its track record in importing talent in the securitys ector and elsewhere. More likely the talent will be imported, from Pakistan in particular.

[davidbfpo]

A succint briefing from The Soufan Group and BLUF:

The Saudi Arabian government announced that it has arrested 431 individuals, most over the last month, on charges associated with the Islamic State • Few countries are as sensitive to instability concerns as Saudi Arabia, and the country faces a serious domestic threat of Islamic State cells
• Following a steady procession of suicide bombings and shootings, Saudi Arabia is trying to disrupt the Islamic State’s momentum inside the country
• The number of Saudi nationals who have traveled to join the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq pales in relation to the potential recruiting pool of radicalized young Saudis who might prefer to fight at home.
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-saudi-arabia-fights-the-islamic-state-at-home/


I wonder if anyone in KSA has pointed out that in the Yemen the KSA is acting in apparent concert with AQAP?

[davidbfpo]

From a short paper by the Washington DC based Wilson Center:
The Yemeni civil war is making for strange bedfellows. Who would have predicted that Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda might become allies despite the terrorist group’s near success in assassinating the current Saudi crown prince six years ago? Who would have thought the Kingdom would turn to the Muslim Brotherhood for help even though the Saudis have condemned it as a terrorist group at home? But this is what is happening in Yemen as the struggle between factions, seen by rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran as proxies of each other, relentlessly grinds on with no end in sight. These Saudi alliances may be mainly tactical and of short duration, but they are straining Saudi relations with the United States, which regards al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as the most dangerous terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland. They are also angering Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who looks upon the Brotherhood as an existential threat and the main source of the escalating terrorist insurgency he faces.
Link:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/saudi-arabia’s-“terrorist”-allies-yemen?

[CrowBat]

...just because Oblabla is holding half the report on 9/11 locked due to Saudi involvement, means not it's really 'surprising' the Saudis are cooperating with al-Qaida, Moslem Brotherhood etc., especially so in Yemen.

If anybody 'imported' Wahhabism into that country, then it was the Saudis, and that with all force, and every Dollar they could spend for that purpose, already since early 1990s.

Much more worrying is the fact that the Saudis are dumb enough to believe they could hold the powers they have unleashed there 'under control'.

...and that nobody in the West cares about this.

Greetings from 'new' Saudi allies in Yemen (http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/04/middleeast/al-qaeda-branch-yemen-united-states/index.html):

Al Qaeda's branch in Yemen, which officials have called the terror group's most dangerous affiliate, has issued two threatening new communiques praising recent lone-wolf style attacks against the West and calling for more of them.

"We urge you to strike America in its own home and beyond," says a letter attributed to Ibrahim al-Asiri, the master bomb-maker with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
...

Hey... when one thinks of it... since Saudi Arabia is a US ally, the AQAP is now de-facto US ally too, or isn't it...?!? :rolleyes:

[davidbfpo]

Sometimes I do wonder with all the history of the Yemen a BBC SME, from RUSI, can write this:
The retaking of a key air base to the north of the southern city of Aden is a major strategic victory for the Yemeni government in its fight against the Houthi-led insurgency.The al-Anad air base is important for a number of reasons.....is extremely important for operations against AQAP)....It was a badly kept secret that much of the US drone programme that targeted al-Qaeda operatives in the south of the country was based out of al-Anad....The recapture of the base and the surrounding areas will ensure that a long-term counter terror presence can be maintaine..
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33778116

Given that part of the anti-Houthi allaince is AQAP, let alone the stance of the Saudis, would the US be allowed to return and attack AQAP? I think not.

Then the BBC's own correspondent, Frank Gardner, reflects on the KSA's new assertiveness:
...the Saudi military has now been at war with Houthi rebels for more than four months....For Saudi Arabia, this is about more than just securing its southern flank.The Saudis fear they are being steadily encircled by Iranian allies and this is something they want to reverse.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33825064

[SWJ Blog]

The Liberation of South Yemen Proves Saudi Arabia's Power is Growing (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-liberation-of-south-yemen-proves-saudi-arabias-power-is-growing)

Entry Excerpt:



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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

Not sure what to make of this article, although Saud family rivalry is not new:http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-senior-royal-urges-change-amid-fears-monarchy-collapse-1612130905

[SWJ Blog]

Saudi Arabia: The Stunning Human-Rights Abuses of a U.S. Ally (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/saudi-arabia-the-stunning-human-rights-abuses-of-a-us-ally)

Entry Excerpt:



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[Firn]

Their intervention in Yemen doesn't seem to go all too well but perhaps more surprising has been the drop in their global assets (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/saudi-arabia-has-withdrawn-billions-from-markets-estimates-show). 50+ billion is only part of their holdings but it shows they have a huge deficit to cover:


With income from oil accounting for about 80 percent of revenue, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit may widen to 20 percent of gross domestic product this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. SAMA plans to raise between 90 billion riyals ($24 billion) and 100 billion riyals in bonds before the end of the year as it seeks to diversify its $752 billion economy, people familiar with the matter said in August.

Diversification has been buzzing around for decades, if I'm not mistakes. Funny how the Saudi manager of the pv plants is making exactly the same point as we did some years ago in the energy security thread. Cut the stupid fuel subsidies, save money and sell more abroad to get much more money. Then again this is basic math and common sense so it wasn't all that difficult to get right. In any case the public addiction to those state-sponsored prices will be hard to crack.

[SWJ Blog]

Why Saudi Arabia's Coalition Against Terror Might Not be All it Appears (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/why-saudi-arabias-coalition-against-terror-might-not-be-all-it-appears)

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[SWJ Blog]

Analysts: Saudi Arabia's Clerics Inspire Islamic Extremism (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/analysts-saudi-arabias-clerics-inspire-islamic-extremism)

Entry Excerpt:



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[Firn]

A while ago we talked about basic math and today's budget (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/a-breakdown-of-the-2016-saudi-budget-and-its-implications) is an interesting exercise in it:


DEFICIT

The government forecasts the deficit will narrow to 326.2 billion riyals ($87 billion) in 2016, from 367 billion riyals [~$100bn] this year.

The 2015 deficit is about 16 percent of gross domestic product, according to Alp Eke, senior economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. The median estimate of 10 economists forecast a shortfall of 20 percent of GDP this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/4994/GR_PR_SaudiOil.png

http://susris.com/wp-content/uploads//2013/12/budget1.jpg

Beyond oil (http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/growth/moving_saudi_arabias_economy_beyond_oil) by McKinsey has a good, if somewhat constrained, executive summary with stunning stats and graphs. Among those gems is the amazing fact that private sector's part in the 75% household income growth in the last decade was less then 1%. Lots of other good graphic stuff...


A DECADE OF RISING PROSPERITY FUELED BY OIL

The Saudi economy moved up from being the 27th largest in the world in 2003 to become the 19th largest in 2014. Its nominal GDP of about $750 billion is larger than either Switzerland’s or Sweden’s. On a per capita basis, Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP of about $24,000 is a little behind South Korea’s and ahead of Portugal’s, although the unique features of the Kingdom, including a sizable population of migrant laborers and a huge oil sector, make this figure misleading.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, deriving about 90 percent of government revenue from oil. The sharp increases in oil prices, which rose from about $30 per barrel in 2003 to a sustained peak of about $110 per barrel in 2011 to 2013 before dropping back in 2014, fueled a doubling of GDP during the decade. At a time of growing indebtedness across major developed and emerging economies since the 2008 financial crisis, Saudi Arabia has been a rare exception: the Kingdom eliminated national debt and increased
reserve assets to $732 billion, the equivalent of almost 100 percent of GDP in 2014.

Now the state's oversea funds are decreasing to cover together with bonds the $100bn or 16% deficit. Roughly $120bn of it's revenue came according to that article from oil, ~ 75% of it's total. Such relations make your head spin. In short Saudi Arabia has a huge problem stemming from those factors:

a) The economy is totally dependent on oil revenue which in turn props up the vast public sector
b) Expenditures have been rising rapidly along with a rapidly rising population
c) The little productive offical private sector has been crowded out and is dominated by foreigners

Oil revenue had to grow considerably per annum already in 2013 over the next decade to keep up with expenditure trend. Even oil at $100 wasn't enough going forward ten years, with Saudi energy consumption cutting ever more into it's exports and thus revenue.

So far for 2016 they calculate, at least according to the Bloomberg numbers, higher oil revenue then in 2015. Keep in mind that oil prices have been up to 40% for quite some time higher this year then they are now. They might of course shoot up again despite the supply glut but it is still a surprising to see that projection...

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQGgOXLfkOmlnCJwtRHdjKhZHkjiot0k 4oJPEVAtUcxwL6BGNgP

[davidbfpo]

Firn,

Thanks for that update (above) and a "lurker" has pointed out a different, though similar viewpoint in today's Daily Telegraph:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12071761/Saudi-riyal-in-danger-as-oil-war-escalates.html

It appears to rely heavily on Dr Alsweilem, now at Harvard University's Belfer Centre.

I have not checked the McKinsey report you cite, but the article has this almost IMHO laughable suggestion attributed to McKinsey:
a McKinsey study – ‘Beyond Oil’ - that sketches how the country can break its unhealthy dependence on crude, and double GDP by 2030 with a $4 trillion investment blitz across eight industries, from petrochemicals to metals, steel, aluminium smelting, cars, electrical manufacturing, tourism, and healthcare.

[Firn]

Firn,

I have not checked the McKinsey report you cite, but the article has this almost IMHO laughable suggestion attributed to McKinsey:

Well, that is why I wrote about a "somewhat constrained" executive summary. The McKinsey guys I know are easily smart enough to understand in which kind of business they operate and who pays them for what. This doesn't devalue most of it's ideas but a "can do spirit" certainly helps in marketing them.

The value of "Beyond oil" lies in showing what happened with oil in the Saudi economy during the last decades. Some of that is captured neatly by those graphic graphs and stats. All in all the dire trends which I posted are nothing new and far more insightful guys like Evans-Pritchard and Khalid Alsweilem have come up with them before. Indeed two years ago (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10209822/US-shale-threatens-Saudi-funding-crisis-and-demise-of-OPEC.html) the very author pointed out:


Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the country’s best-known global investor, said the business model of Middle East oil exporters risks unravelling rich industrial states find ways of cutting demand. “Our country is facing a threat with the continuation of its near-complete reliance on oil: 92pc of the budget for this year depends on oil,” he said in a letter to Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi.

In short if something can not go on forever it will stop, however the institutional imperative (http://theinvestmentsblog.blogspot.co.at/2011/11/buffett-on-institutional-imperative_18.html) is very strong in the royal clan.

As this is the SWC it is proper to point out that military expenditures are about $60bn a year, roughly 40% of projected revenues for 2016. The Saudi defence budget is quite opaque, to put it mildly, and with no independent institutions things can easily be shifted around or kicked down into the next year. The takeaway is simply that it is massive relative to budget and indeed to the economy, no doubt in part due to the big salaries payed for the upper echelons.

Devaluation would of course help a great deal with some internal spending, witness Russia for which every $ goes now twice as far, and some of the military ones like salaries but should make replacing those bombs dropping in Yemen a lot more expensive.


Finally they seem to cut (http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/saudi-arabia-raises-fuel-price-66-per-cent-amid-big-subsidy-shake-up) some of the harmful subsidies:


The Saudi government will raise the price of gasoline by two-thirds to 0.75 riyals a litre from 0.45 riyals for 91 Octane fuel. Higher electricity, water, and gas tariffs were announced by the Saudi Press Agency on Twitter, following the release of the Kingdom’s 2016 budget on Monday.

Subsidy cuts aim “to achieve efficiency in energy use, conserve natural resources, stop waste and irrational use”, the Ministry of Finance said in the annual budget statement. The changes will be monitored to ensure that they do not harm either “low and mid-income citizens [or] the competitiveness of the business sector,” the Ministry said.



P.S: In an ironic twist percentage-wise the dependence on oil of the Saudi revenues decreased this year from 93pc to 73pc just as they post a huge deficit largely because oil prices crashed...

[SWJ Blog]

Shi'ite Muslims Outraged by Saudi Execution of Cleric (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/shiite-muslims-outraged-by-saudi-execution-of-cleric)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/shiite-muslims-outraged-by-saudi-execution-of-cleric) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

Two useful commentaries on recent events. The shortest is from the Soufan Group:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-saudi-arabia-and-the-death-of-sheikh-nimr/

Longer is that from WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/sectarianism-and-saudi-arabias-half-baked-counter-terrorism-alliance/?

[Firn]

Maybe that particular execution was indeed aimed at inflaming the conflict to have the old external enemy at the center of much internal attention in a time when subsidies have been cut for the first time in a long time and the budget deficit was shocking. Who knows?

Personally I'm inclined to believe that the recent Saudi pumping is not just a clever play aimed at destroying shale. That might well be part of their thinking, maybe even be the internal offical line as clever sounds always better then an obvious one: Cutting production might have well caused a still bigger short-term budget deficit. If they decided to cut, they would have needed to do so quite deeply to have an effect.

The oil market has it's specifics but just look at almost every other commodity out there. Be it iron ore or coal, most producers are in a rat race to the bottom, trying to cut costs and increasing production in some cases. So the Saudi decision to keep pumping is hardly singular for those lowest in the cost curve...

[Azor]

The new direction of Syrian arguments is about picking a side in the Sunni-Shia conflict.

Pro-Russian partisans accuse Saudi Arabia of being less democratic and more repressive than Iran, and of using Islamist groups including AQ and IS the way Iran uses the IRGC.

They highlight Iran's relative "freedom of religion" compared to KSA, the fact that women can drive in Iran, etc. The Al-Nimr execution has brought this line of argument to the fore.

However, upon closer examination, the Iranian regime is more bloodthirsty. They execute at least 3X more people per year than the KSA and have killed 12,000-15,000 in waves of purges against the Tudeh and other opponents to Khomeini. In contrast, Saudi political bloodletting from '79 to present is several hundred.

In addition, there is Hezbollah, Hamas and the IRGC to contend with, which are either arms of the Iranian state or sponsored by them. Private donations aside, the Saudis have nothing comparable.

Anyone care to add more?

[Firn]

Well I do focus more on the sinews of war (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/saudi-riyal-forwards-set-for-highest-level-since-at-least-1996), not the political conflict:



Contracts used to bet whether Saudi Arabia will allow its dollar-pegged currency to weaken were poised for the highest level in almost two decades as oil prices plummeted.

Twelve-month forward contracts for the riyal climbed 260 points to 950 as of 3:49 p.m. in Riyadh, set for the steepest close since December 1996, when Bloomberg began collecting the data. That reflects growing speculation the world’s biggest oil exporter may allow its currency to slide against the dollar for the first time since 1986.

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iCRjAQ2v2SBI/v3/-1x-1.png

A picture can say sometimes more then a hundred words...


In this context the previously unthinkable to most seems now possible to some: "Saudi Arabia Is Considering Aramco IPO, Deputy Crown Prince Says" (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/saudi-arabia-is-considering-aramco-ipo-deputy-crown-prince-says)



“Personally, I’m enthusiastic about this step,” [Deputy Crown Prince] Salman said.

Saudi Aramco produces all of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil, at 10.25 million barrels a day in December. Among listed companies, Russia’s OAO Rosneft produces more than 5 million barrels a day while Exxon Mobil Corp. pumps out about 4 million barrels.

An IPO will certainly be done in a way that Saudi Arabia de-jure and de-facto still controlls Aramco. Of course like many things it would have been smarter to make such moves in good times but buy high and sell low seems to be the motto of many a miner or driller, public, private or state-owned.

[SWJ Blog]

Ruling the Kingdom: US Agency in the Saudi Arabian Nuclear Proliferation Puzzle (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/ruling-the-kingdom-us-agency-in-the-saudi-arabian-nuclear-proliferation-puzzle)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/ruling-the-kingdom-us-agency-in-the-saudi-arabian-nuclear-proliferation-puzzle) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[Firn]

To sum up some of my thoughts on the economic (and political) future of Saudi Arabia:

1. What can't go on forever will end. Even with far higher oil prices - budget breakeven being at around 90$ - the expenditures must be reduced.

2. The McKinsey study is just one in a considerably number of studies and even official policies all aimed at creating a more diversified economy, so it's chances don't look good.

3. However as the economy can in the mid- to longterm no longer work like it does change has to be attempted. It will be very difficult as the terrible track-record shows, but it has to be tried.

4. Success, even a partly one, looks unlikely as past performance is a pretty good indicator, if not a guarantuee of future success.

5. Oil income has been bedrock of the royal might, enabling relatively generous social subsidies but also to pay the organisations of suppression and co-option (obviously all are related).


If we take the simple facts and combine them we have to come to the conclusion that Saud Arabia faces in the long run terrible economic challenges. If those aren't met properly, and history suggests that it will be hard to do so, the political system in Saudi Arabia is at grave risk. Of course it might conserve power for a long time even in the face of a much poorer society, but it is almost certain that Saudi Arabia will have a harder time seeking security then thirty years or so ago.


The Western would certainly do well to prepare well for a variety of scenarios. Things might continue in a certain fashion for a long time but can also change surprisingly quickly...

[CrowBat]

If the following is truth, Saudis should have no major security issues for quite some times any more...

Saudi policical analyst Dahham al-Anzi stating clearly on TV, 'yes Sir, Saudi Arabia has nukes' (via Memri TV, yes, but originally he stated that on an Arabic TV channel, on 15 February):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXuJkVPRjNI

Supposedly, they have a 'handful' of nuclear warheads in KSA, made by Pakistan, but guarded and maintained by Chinese.

Now, if they have such bombs, and considering circumstances, they might really do that test. And then....

...well, what then...?

[CrowBat]

...not to forget a day-earlier 'confirmation' from what sounds like quite an authoritative source: CIA Confirms: Saudi Arabia has Four to Seven Nuclear Bombs, Deliverable by Missile or Aircraft (https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/918)

..."Founding Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Counter-Terrorism Operations Center publicly confirms Saudi Arabia has deliverable nuclear bombs.

Last week, on "The Hal Turner Show" Mr. Turner told his audience that, based on his years of experience as a National Security Intelligence Asset with the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force, Saudi Arabia is in possession of nuclear weapons. He also made clear that a CIA asset had (earlier) made this revelation in public, on FOX NEWS CHANNEL, and this revelation was a staggering breach of Classified Information protocols.

Turner went on to say that "the only way a guy from the CIA would reveal such information is if Washington WANTED the information revealed; otherwise the person who exposed the classified material could be criminally prosecuted."
...

(Added by Moderator) The "CIA guy" film clip on Fox News is available via:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt3trHKqdiM&feature=youtu.be

[davidbfpo]

Leaving aside the details (as per map), the timing and method one must wonder at the impact within several Western nations, Israel, even Iran and in the USA. Perhaps officialdom knew and just forgot to tell the public?

From my memory there has been reporting about the Chinese-made SSM before and the KSA refusal to allow the USA to pay a "courtesy" visit. As for them having nuclear warheads that IMHO is a moot point. I have a vague recollection that the USA reassured Israel on the SSM's deployment they had only high explosive warheads.

In fact I am sure the SSMs have appeared on SWC before and their bases were then shown as nearer to Israel than the map provided today.

See Post 43 for a detailed report from December 2014:http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/saudi-rattles-its-saber/

Within is this paragraph:
While Chinese DF-3 missiles were armed with large multi-megaton warheads - and thus did not need to be especially accurate - Saudi Arabia's conventionally-armed variants required far better accuracy to provide effective deterrence. China, apparently with Israeli (http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/) technical assistance, reportedly produced a more accurate version of the DF-3. In April 1988, China delivered the second consignment of DF-3 missiles with "drastically improved" accuracy to replace those delivered a few months before. In the end, Saudi Arabia imported approximately 40 DF-3 missiles capable of carrying a 2,000 kilogram explosive payload to a range of 3,000 km.

(Chinese helpers on-site?) On balance, however, the evidence suggests that the Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force is, in fact, Saudi.

[davidbfpo]

The cited "CIA guy" is a Duane Clarridge, who appears in stand-alone posts on SWC awhile back and left the CIA in 1991 "under a cloud" over the Iran-Contra episode. He then ran a private intelligence group. See Wiki for some background:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duane_Clarridge

[CrowBat]

Leaving aside the details (as per map), the timing and method one must wonder at the impact within several Western nations, Israel, even Iran and in the USA. Perhaps officialdom knew and just forgot to tell the public?'Connect the dots', David - and here's the timing (as posted by Outlaw in Syria-thread):

Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? (http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/did-russia-just-threaten-turkey-nuclear-weapons/ri12936?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork)

'Executive Summary': a source close to Putler said to investigative journo Robert Parry that Russia warned Erdogan that it is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons to defend its forces in Syria from Turkish attack.

Why is this important?

Because with one third of the NATO consisting of Islamo- and all other sorts of Xenophobes, one third of presidents and chancelors (or at least members of governments) on Gazprom's and similar paylists, and Oblaba's admin going de-facto pro-PKK/anti-Turkey, it's obvious Erdo is feeling under a threat.

What a better moment but to pull out a big stick - in form of Saudi nukes?

Now the Russians can threat as much as they like, but they have to take into account: Turkey has a sort of 'nuclear umbrella' - with or without shaky NATO.

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

A quick note. The original, online story by Robert Parry was published on the 18th February 2016 and the relevant passage is:
A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.

The author's very slim byline at the end says:
Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s.
Link:https://consortiumnews.com/2016/02/18/risking-nuclear-war-for-al-qaeda/

Now, isn't that a really interesting coincidence given the past of Duane Clarridge?;)

The long article touches upon many aspects of the Syrian civil war and USG policy. Needless to say the author is a critic of President Obama.

So one whispered 'source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me' and the media circus spins. Makes you wonder, well it does here.:confused:

[CrowBat]

My point is this: it appears that sometimes early this month (or earlier?) Russians threatened Turkey with deployment of tactical nuclear weapons 'in defence' of their contingent in Syria.

All the mumbo-jumbo by side (then the more of his stuff on Syria I'm reading, the more I'm starting to realize that Parry's 'insights' into that conflict are of similar quality like those of Kinzer), and perhaps my 'general order of appearance' (or 'official protocol'?) is not perfect, but to me this situation appears to have developed as follows:

- For years, i.e. nearly as long as there is a war in Syria, the West is de-facto signalling to its allies in the Middle East: 'we don't want to get involved there, but if you want, please do so';

- allies in question then got involved in a kind of 'minimalistic' fashion (through provision of aid to insurgents), but the West said, 'OK, but under our control, and don't you dare doing something we don't like';

(BTW, and ironically, while attempting to exercise this control the West curbed all sorts of Saudi and Turkish support for 'other insurgents' but left Qatar support JAN - even the Daesh, at least early on - as much as it likes...)

- through late 2013 and into early 2014, Syrian Sunni Arab insurgents were THE FIRST party to fight the Daesh; they were also the THE FIRST to defeat the Daesh and force it out of seven provinces in Syria; but, this is completely ignored by the West - even more so since the West launched its anti-Daesh 'war' in autumn 2014;

- since autumn 2014, the West is signalling: 'we want your participation in our war against the Daesh (and/or al-Qaida) in Syria' (Iraq is out of question since pro-Iranian regime there is refusing such an option);

- since spring 2015, GCC-allies are involved in Yemen - in an action supported by the USA;

- because of their ops in Yemen, around the same time GCC-allies minimalized their participation in war against Daesh in Syria (which is no surprise, given this was limited to support of Kurds, and entirely ignored needs of Syrian Sunni Arabs);

- this 'minimalisation' in turn prompted critique from the West - as if Western allies in the Middle East 'must' fight the West's war against the Daesh, although neither Syrian nor Iraqi governments want them to do so (this is so ridiculous, I must laugh while typing this);

- then, in autumn 2015, the US switched its support in Syria to de-facto 'Kurds only', while at the same time US officials bitterly complained about lack of support from GCC-allies for its war against the Daesh;

- in early 2016, Turkey and Saudi Arabia announced they're ready to send troops to fight Daesh in Syria; but now - and 'all of a sudden' - the West is not the least delighted about this idea?

- Instead, the West is now exercising pressure upon Saudi Arabia and Turkey to ignore their own interests in Syria (i.e. to stick to Western policy of acting against these interests),

- while Russians threat Turkey with deployment of nuclear weapons.

- What a 'surprise' then, the Saudis reply with 'outing' about their nukes (arguably: in fashion that might appear 'unusual' to us in the West, then people here seem to kind of expect this king Salman to appear on the TV and say, 'yes, we can, i.e. have nukes'),

- and this is 'supported' by similar outings of people in the USA who 'are in position to say' or 'should know' if Saudis have nukes (even if the same people obviously have no trace of clue what's going on in Syria, which is no surprise nor anything diminishing their potential authoritativeness in regards of Saudi nukes).

[davidbfpo]

A timely article, hat tip to WoTR, on this developing relationship and the author's very slim bio:
Sameer Lalwani is Deputy Director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Previously, he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the RAND Corporation.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/will-pakistan-draw-closer-to-saudi-arabia-to-balance-iran/

I found it odd no mention is made of the widespread opposition in Pakistan, including in parliament, to joining the anti-Houthi coalition led by KSA, in late 2015.

[davidbfpo]

I do wonder about The Daily Telegraph sometimes, it has some excellent columnists, but when I read Con Coughlin I often end up spluttering.:eek:

Here is his latest entitled:
Lessons the West must learn from the Gulf War, 25 years on

It starts with:
At a time when Western politicians are struggling to devise a coherent strategy to defeat the fanatics of Islamic State (Isil), the 25th anniversary of the First Gulf War... is a timely reminder of what can be achieved when the West forms an effective partnership with its Arab allies.

(It ends with) If the West is serious about finding effective regional partners to help defeat Isil, why not form a new coalition with the Saudis and their allies? If it worked so well in 1991, then why not now?
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12176682/Lessons-the-West-must-learn-from-the-Gulf-War-25-years-on.html

At least he does not advocate entering into an alliance with another ally in 1991, the Syrian official regime.

Then for reasons lost on me, the Saudi Ambassador in London, has a column too and what a title:
Saudi Arabia is bombing in Yemen to bring peace and stability

Referring to a recent critical UN report he writes:
And it should also be noted that the UN Report itself is based solely on satellite imagery and eyewitness testimony, which have proven to be highly unreliable in the past.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/12176705/Saudi-Arabia-is-bombing-in-Yemen-to-bring-peace-and-stability.html

[Granite_State]

In an article in the Atlantic I was reading the other day, a crazy statistic caught my eye:


The Saudis burn about a quarter of the oil they produce—and their domestic consumption has been rising at an alarming 7 percent a year, nearly three times the rate of population growth. According to a widely read December 2011 report by Chatham House, a British think tank, if this trend continues, domestic consumption could eat into Saudi oil exports by 2021 and render the kingdom a net oil importer by 2038.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/saudis-solar-energy/395315/

[davidbfpo]

Via the Australian website of the Lowy Institute, a short pithy article by a ret'd Israeli Air Force officer:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/02/29/Saudi-Arabia-goes-to-war.aspx?

A few passages:
Tanks, combat aircraft and missiles are only as powerful as the people operating, maintaining and supporting them. And in this domain, Saudi Arabia has a very long way to go. Not much is known about the proficiency of Saudi Arabia's military as a fighting force. The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991; and most of the fighting there was done by the US. More recently Saudi Arabia has been fighting in Yemen, but unsuccessfully so far. Foreign advisers speak about the difficulties in bringing Saudi Arabian soldiers to the desired combat readiness and proficiency.

(Concluding passage) Let me finish with a comment on 'Northern Thunder'. Exercises as large as 'Northern Thunder' take a very long time to plan and coordinate, and it also takes many months to gather the units together in one place. Yet, 'Northern Thunder' appeared in the media out of nowhere. (and nothing is known about it since it was announced). Where do you hide 350,000 troops? Are they really there?

[CrowBat]

Via the Australian website of the Lowy Institute, a short pithy article by a ret'd Israeli Air Force officer:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/02/29/Saudi-Arabia-goes-to-war.aspx?

A few passages:
"The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991..."

Sounds like the author never heard of Yemen Wars...

************

Anyway, something that's a sort of a public secret ever since 2001, at least 2002, is now about to 'explode' into a major international affair.

Namely, in reaction to demands from the US Congress to publish full details about involvement of Saudi government in 9/11, Saudis are making their next dumb move:

Saudi Arabia Warns of Economic Fallout if Congress Passes 9/11 Bill (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-warns-ofeconomic-fallout-if-congress-passes-9-11-bill.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=0)

Saudi Arabia has told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The Obama administration has lobbied Congress to block the bill’s passage, according to administration officials and congressional aides from both parties, and the Saudi threats have been the subject of intense discussions in recent weeks between lawmakers and officials from the State Department and the Pentagon. The officials have warned senators of diplomatic and economic fallout from the legislation.

Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, delivered the kingdom’s message personally last month during a trip to Washington, telling lawmakers that Saudi Arabia would be forced to sell up to $750 billion in treasury securities and other assets in the United States before they could be in danger of being frozen by American courts.

Several outside economists are skeptical that the Saudis will follow through, saying that such a sell-off would be difficult to execute and would end up crippling the kingdom’s economy. But the threat is another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The administration, which argues that the legislation would put Americans at legal risk overseas, has been lobbying so intently against the bill that some lawmakers and families of Sept. 11 victims are infuriated. In their view, the Obama administration has consistently sided with the kingdom and has thwarted their efforts to learn what they believe to be the truth about the role some Saudi officials played in the terrorist plot.
...

Of course, 'royals' in Riyad are not the only ones to blame: in essence, all of this is actually known since more than a decade. The issue is only that of the US government officially announcing this as a fact (in turn probably causing a mass of legal cases with demands for payment of damage against Saudi Arabia, just for example).

The actual reason for this issue being so 'sensitive' right now is that there were two US administrations (Qusay Bush & Oblabla) that did their best to prevent this from happening - and instead cheerfully continued upping Sauds, selling arms worth hundreds of billions to them etc: had they made this known right from the start, nobody would have said a single word.

So, the question is rather: why all of that, was it worth it, and why now...?

[OUTLAW 09]

"The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991..."

Sounds like the author never heard of Yemen Wars...

************

Anyway, something that's a sort of a public secret ever since 2001, at least 2002, is now about to 'explode' into a major international affair.

Namely, in reaction to demands from the US Congress to publish full details about involvement of Saudi government in 9/11, Saudis are making their next dumb move:

Saudi Arabia Warns of Economic Fallout if Congress Passes 9/11 Bill (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-warns-ofeconomic-fallout-if-congress-passes-9-11-bill.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=0)


Of course, 'royals' in Riyad are not the only ones to blame: in essence, all of this is actually known since more than a decade. The issue is only that of the US government officially announcing this as a fact (in turn probably causing a mass of legal cases with demands for payment of damage against Saudi Arabia, just for example).

The actual reason for this issue being so 'sensitive' right now is that there were two US administrations (Qusay Bush & Oblabla) that did their best to prevent this from happening - and instead cheerfully continued upping Sauds, selling arms worth hundreds of billions to them etc: had they made this known right from the start, nobody would have said a single word.

So, the question is rather: why all of that, was it worth it, and why now...?

There was a book written in German that involved deep research into the Hamburg AQ cell that was the core driver of 9/11. BTW that book is now extremely hard to find even on the used book side of the house.

While several were Saudi.....the German researcher and he was actually for his time extremely thorough.... stated he found no direct link to anyone in the Saudi government, intel services and or any funding funneled to Hamburg from KSA....all instructions, personnel and funding flowed from AQ central as it was an AQ central operation from start to end and part and parcel of AQ central OPEC.

AQ central had a deep distrust for anything Saudi so I cannot fathom AQ central "getting into bed with the Saudi security services".

WHY not instead truly and definitively look at the total failure of the US intel community and FBI mistakes where the "dots" were all there to be seen and connected BUT where not...then why not as AQ central was suppose to be on everyone's radar screen.......

THEN let's look at the alleged NSA intercepts that picked up on at least two of the 9/11 cells in the US BUT somehow did not connect them to AQ central...if true then why not should be the question.

WHAT is missing often from US articles about 9/11 is the serious "near miss" by a AQ sleeper cell in Us that darn near knocked down the Twin Towers with truck bomb...they barely missed seriously damaging one of the key supports that would have in fact caused the eventual crash of the Tower.

So with this fore warning JUST why did the US think another attack was not coming and against the same target set???

[CrowBat]

There are also books - like Baer's 'In Bed with the Devil' - that are directly linking at least the 'wife of Saudi ambassador to the DC' with 9/11....

...and, to make sure: I perfectly understand there are three cliques within the Saud family, with sometimes diametrally opposite standpoints... including one that is kind of 'pro-al-Qaida' (or at least leaning in that direction, if for no other reason then because it would like to grow in importance), but simply 'irrelevant' and so far away from places where any of important decisions are taken, that it simply 'doesn't matter'.

Whatever, few things are sure:
- a) if Saudis - one of (officially) 'major non-NATO-allies' of the USA in the Middle East - were not involved, there should be no reason for such like Obama to censure the publication of the full report;

- b) versa-vice: if Saudis were not involved, there should be no reason for them to express threats like the one mentioned above.

Bottom line: what's all the fuz about?

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

I have seen several US media reports and blog columns on the "missing pages" from the 9/11 inquiry in recent days, but refrained from posting them here. Presumably our many Americans readers have seen them too.

For the Saudis (KSA) now to increase the diplomatic and financial pressure to prevent a bill becoming law, which is stuck in Congress comes as no surprise.

It also makes the recent deal between Egypt and KSA over the two islands in the Straits of Tiran even more interesting. Notably will the KSA really allow a US-manned MFO outpost to remain on now sovereign KSA territory? See this young, thin thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=23819

[davidbfpo]

Cited in part:
"The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991..."

Sounds like the author never heard of Yemen Wars...

I agree, but somehow I expect very few people who were involved in the decision-making, let alone actual "boots on the ground" are now involved, let alone being listened to. Something in my memory tells me Egypt came to regard their "brotherly" intervention as their own Vietnam. The KSA did commit some troops, but it was mainly gold they contributed.

As Wiki reminded me this war was from 1962-1970. See:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen_Civil_War

Just found via Google a 21 pg paper:http://www.alexthorn.com/writings/Thorn-EgyptsVietnam.pdf

Once again your example reminds us that history has a habit of fading away, only to return and "bite" hard. Those who remind the decision-makers are all too often seen as "troublesome"; which seems to account for much of SWJ's infamy.;)

[CrowBat]

Hm... still not getting it: half the US defence sector is living from all the billions they're making with sales to Saudi Arabia. Little surprise then if the admin is curious to keep 'unpleasant' details of 9/11 investigation 'swept under the carpet'...

Would all the hundreds of thousands working for companies in question like to become jobless...?

I'm not 'defending' or 'taking sides' of anybody there. It's just that conclusion is on hand: the situation is like that with Israeli (and/or, since early this year: Saudi) nukes. 'No comment' is considered 'better solution under given circumstances'.

[CrowBat]

Cited in part:

I agree, but somehow I expect very few people who were involved in the decision-making, let alone actual "boots on the ground" are now involved, let alone being listened to. Something in my memory tells me Egypt came to regard their "brotherly" intervention as their own Vietnam. The KSA did commit some troops, but it was mainly gold they contributed.

As Wiki reminded me this war was from 1962-1970. See:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen_Civil_War

Just found via Google a 21 pg paper:http://www.alexthorn.com/writings/Thorn-EgyptsVietnam.pdf

Once again your example reminds us that history has a habit of fading away, only to return and "bite" hard. Those who remind the decision-makers are all too often seen as "troublesome"; which seems to account for much of SWJ's infamy.;)
Ah, you mean the Yemen War of 1962-1970: Saudis were 'only financing' that affair back then, they never became directly involved. That is: the British convinced them to sponsor arms purchases for 'Royalists'; then, with help of that Saudi money, British were purchasing arms from Israel, Jordan, Iran etc., and providin these to Royalists (BTW, majority of Royalists were the Zaidis - including Houthis - whom the Saudis are now fighting against).

(Note: strongly-recommended reading in this regards is The War That Never Was (http://www.amazon.com/War-That-Never-Was-ebook/dp/B004WOF29Y/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1460811728&sr=8-2&keywords=the+war+that+never+was); Mind how shortsighted the British policy was, back then; they were de-facto supporting a Wahhabist regime against a laicist government in Egypt that was attempting to establish a laicist government in North Yemen...)

What I had in my mind when pointing out at that sentence is the Yemen War of 2009-2010. That was the actual Saudi 'military academy' - i.e. the 'crucial war-fighting experience' for their military.

...and this much more so than 'any' 1991: namely, what Saudis (i.e. the Saudi-led coalition) is (or was, considering the latest cease-fire) doing in Yemen since 24 March 2015, is exactly 'lessons learned from 2009-2010'.

Which in turn results in my POV that anybody gauging Saudi military performance in Yemen 2015-2016 by its (perceived or real) performance of 1991 simply has no clue what is he/she talking about.

[OUTLAW 09]

If you really think about it...the KSA response has feet and shoes and can walk for a number of reasons at least from their POV.

Any US law and or US court decision against the KSA and or KSA individual can easily be used to attach any kind of KSA assets much as is being done now in the Russian Kudos court decision being used against Russian assets in say France to the tune of 1B USD.

By eliminating say the 850B USDs they are no longer attachable within the US.

Secondly, there has always been a witch hunt in US media against alleged KSA 9/11 involvement since 9/11.

Saudi Arabia's king ran state charity that 9/11 victims say funded and armed al Qaeda
http://www.floridabulldog.org/2016/04/12513/

Lastly, this is another stone in a drumbeat against the KSA which actually parallels the Obama Goldberg interview comments concerning KSA.

After those comments I am surprised that Obama is going to the GCC meeting.

It is general knowledge of the "divided loyalities" within the KSA ruling elite...just look at the bin Laden family and that many in the US never did understand why the Bush Administration allowed bin Laden family members to leave the US just after 9/11 AND the RUIMNT that has been spun out of that move by Bush..or even look at the relationship of the first Bush to the KSA royal family.........

[OUTLAW 09]

Worth reading the Senate's initial submission and then the "marked up" Bill and one can see exactly what is the KSA "heartburn"....and along the way notice the US is precluded from the Bill...as one could construct something out of the Bill that actually fits the US.......notice the language....excludes any agent of the US working under the "color" of the US government.....meaning what happens if a Us CIA agent is working for an "opposition group" that goes rogue such as say the Kurdish YPG and attacks civilians in Turkey...is then the US government a "sponsor of terrorism" as well.....????

Under the Senate Bill...no...but the KSA is....?????

Here it is:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/2040 …
There is the full bill and a summary on this page.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/

The link above is to the 60 minutes video and transcript on the missing 28 pages of the 9/11 commission report not released to the public.


Roemer and others who have actually read the 28 pages, describe them as a working draft similar to a grand jury or police report that includes provocative evidence -- some verified, and some not. They lay out the possibility of official Saudi assistance for two of the hijackers who settled in Southern California. That information from the 28-pages was turned over to the 9/11 Commission for further investigation. Some of the questions raised were answered in the commission's final report. Others were not.

Steve Kroft: Is there information in the 28 pages that, if they were declassified, would surprise people?

Tim Roemer: Sure, you're gonna be surprised by it. And, you're going to be surprised by some of the answers that are sitting there today in the 9/11 Commission report about what happened in San Diego, and what happened in Los Angeles. And what was the Saudi involvement.

The increased focus on potential Saudi officials supporting the 9/11 mass murderers and the increasing political pressure to declassify these 28 pages is driving a wider wedge between Saudi and the U.S. Saudi is threatening economic nuclear option if the papers are declassified.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-16/saudi-arabia-threatens-us-it-will-liquidate-its-treasury-holdings-if-congress-passes

Saudi Arabia Threatens To Liquidate Its Treasury Holdings If Congress Probes Its Role In Sept 11 Attacks


Back in January, when the market was watching in shocked silence as oil prices were crashing to decade lows and as concerns emerged that Saudi Arabia may need to commence selling its vast, if unquantified, USD reserves, we wrote a post titled "Attention Finally Turns To Saudi Arabia's "Secret" US Treasury Holdings" where we noted something very surprising: whereas we do know that Saudi Arabia is the owner of the world's third largest USD reserves...... their actual composition remains as a secret, because while the US discloses the explicit Treasury holdings of all other nations, Saudi Arabia's holdings, for some unknown reason, are not officially disclosed.
"It’s a secret of the vast U.S. Treasury market, a holdover from an age of oil shortages and mighty petrodollars," Bloomberg wrote of Saudi Arabia’s US Treasury holdings.


By way of background, the Senate bill is intended to make clear that the immunity given to foreign nations under the law should not apply in cases where nations are found culpable for terrorist attacks that kill Americans on United States soil. If the bill were to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the president, it could clear a path for the role of the Saudi government to be examined in the Sept. 11 lawsuits.

Suddenly Saudi Arabia is panicking: its response - if the US does pass this bill it would liquidate hundreds of billion in U.S. denominated assets, and perhaps as much as $750 billion in US Treasurys (the NYT's estimate of Saudi Treasury holdings).



Secretary of State John Kerry told a Senate panel in February that the bill, in its current form, would “expose the United States of America to lawsuits and take away our sovereign immunity and create a terrible precedent.”

In a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill on March 4, Anne W. Patterson, an assistant secretary of state, and Andrew Exum, a top Pentagon official on Middle East policy, told staff members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that American troops and civilians could be in legal jeopardy if other nations decide to retaliate and strip Americans of immunity abroad. They also discussed the Saudi threats specifically, laying out the impacts if Saudi Arabia made good on its economic threats.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/11/saudi_arabia_and_the_28_classified_pages_of_congre ss_9_11_report.html

Your Guide to the 28 Classified Pages About Saudi Arabia and 9/11 That Obama Might Release


What do they say, allegedly? 60 Minutes—based on the statements of people who’ve read them—says the pages amount to “a working draft similar to a grand jury or police report that includes provocative evidence—some verified, and some not” about assistance that Saudi nationals with government connections provided to some of the 9/11 hijackers while those hijackers were in the United States. More than one outlet has reported that some of the allegations involve Omar al-Bayoumi, a Saudi national who’s known to have done favors (a small loan, help renting an apartment) for two of the hijackers after meeting them at a Los Angeles restaurant on the same day that he also met with someone at L.A.’s Saudi consulate. (Al-Bayoumi has claimed that he didn’t know anything about the future hijackers and just happened to have struck up a friendship with them after randomly meeting them at the restaurant.)

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/09/why_are_28_pages_of_the_joint_congressional_invest igation_into_911_still_classified.html

Why are 28 pages of the Joint Congressional Investigation into 9/11 still classified?


If I were a family member of a 9/11 casualty, I wouldn't care about the geopolitical considerations. I'd want the information released and the guilty parties brought to justice. So perhaps we should take our cue from those who lost the most on 9/11 and get the information before the American people and let the chips fall where they may.

We all can read between the lines and see where our biases take us. Still, assuming the Saudi officials are innocent, keeping this secret has simply made it worse. And if some of the officials are guilty, then they need to be held responsible. Beyond this sad story is an even larger story of a potentially fraying alliance and Saudi's readiness to employ economic power on the world stage to coerce. Not the first time, but this may indicate the U.S. doesn't have the level of power and influence it had previously to shape events globally now.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/

The link above is to the 60 minutes video and transcript on the missing 28 pages of the 9/11 commission report not released to the public.



The increased focus on potential Saudi officials supporting the 9/11 mass murderers and the increasing political pressure to declassify these 28 pages is driving a wider wedge between Saudi and the U.S. Saudi is threatening economic nuclear option if the papers are declassified.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-16/saudi-arabia-threatens-us-it-will-liquidate-its-treasury-holdings-if-congress-passes

Saudi Arabia Threatens To Liquidate Its Treasury Holdings If Congress Probes Its Role In Sept 11 Attacks








http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/11/saudi_arabia_and_the_28_classified_pages_of_congre ss_9_11_report.html

Your Guide to the 28 Classified Pages About Saudi Arabia and 9/11 That Obama Might Release



http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/09/why_are_28_pages_of_the_joint_congressional_invest igation_into_911_still_classified.html

Why are 28 pages of the Joint Congressional Investigation into 9/11 still classified?



We all can read between the lines and see where our biases take us. Still, assuming the Saudi officials are innocent, keeping this secret has simply made it worse. And if some of the officials are guilty, then they need to be held responsible. Beyond this sad story is an even larger story of a potentially fraying alliance and Saudi's readiness to employ economic power on the world stage to coerce. Not the first time, but this may indicate the U.S. doesn't have the level of power and influence it had previously to shape events globally now.

Bill..you bring up an interesting use of the word economic nuclear option....if one looks closely at the current oil debate the Saudi's have been using oil pricing as their nuclear option and if we see their stand yesterday at Doha....then they are driving against three targets...1) US shale oil, 2) Russia and 3) Iran and they are willing to drive the price down to the 10-15 USD ranges to achieve their goals...

Obama's comment of a "cold peace" may haunt him in the coming years as of this moment there will never be a "cold peace" between KSA and Iran and we are yet to see if KSA takes the step and enters Syria which some including myself say is not a question of "if"...but "when" and that "when" is not far away if Assad keeps up his terror civilian bombing campaign in the middle of this so called cessation of hostilities....

That they must now get bank loans to fill their budget does not seem to bother them...depicts just how serious they are and you are right the US has absolutely no influence and I am surprised that Obama is even going to the coming GCC meeting especially after this Goldberg interview.

BTW...Kerry also has no further creditability in the ME after his two statements that Iran is pulling their mercenaries and troops out of Syria... a DoS should always state facts...not "his wishes" especially in the ME....

BTW....reference the 28 pages...I would rather have a far more detailed analysis of the 9/11 investigation that did not dig into exactly what did the NSA truly know and yet did not pass on to other federal agencies......many have alluded to the fact that the NSA did in fact monitor a number of the participants and yet we have heard nothing about that and it was not part of the 9/11 investigation as NSA "classified it at the TS/SCI SIGINT levels.

Yet the 9/11 panel let it pass.

That analysis is actually far more important as it points to some current recent failures within the US IC.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW.....instead of this Saudi debate we need urgently a debate on just why the Obama WH has looked the other way with Iran and Hezbollah that are since 1979 1) a terror sponsoring country and 2) Hezbollah a terror organization--and elements of IRGC as well.......as they have also a large number of US personnel "blood on their hands".......

Commander of #IRGC ground forces saying they sent their forces to #Syria for training, and #USA is their main enemy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Many are overlooking the simple fact that the current KSA royal family is in a generational shift and the younger group has been preaching that KSA must be more forceful in stating their FP and security needs.

AND this group is both forward thinking and vocal in their statements.

IMHO....the threat to sell off over 700B in US assets was not just a verbal threat but seriously meant as a true wake up call to the US.

If one thinks it through....the Saudi's could use the 700B to cushion the price of oil at 5USDs per barrel while the rest of the oil producing countries ie the US would truly suffer.....my father was a SVP for a major oil company in the US and in the gas crisis in 1973...he made an interesting comment...if oil gets to 10USD we will be still making a profit and oil will flow...Saudi's have once or twice alluded to the cost of production being 2/3USDs per barrel.

While that massive of a sell off would effect the global finance world...KSA would still be selling oil......

We are now seeing them nuzzle up to Turkey, we see Turkey nuzzling up to Israel as does KSA and we still have the Saudi Palestine Peace proposal on the Arab League table....Obama and Iran are doing far more to motivate KSA than we are willing to fully understand.....

Turkey and Saudi embrace as Iran rises and US disengages
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-embrace-as-us-gives-middle-east-cold-shoulder-vz2vln5fs …

If I were the Russians instead of accusing the US of "hybrid warfare against them" I would seriously look at KSA as Putin does not understand in the least Saudi security needs......AND Putin seems to have forgotten that it was the Saudi's that drove down the oil price in the 90s that collapsed the Soviet Union.

No Agreement in Doha, Ruble Falls; Bastrykin Claims US Wages 'Hybrid War' on Russia
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...18-2016/#13383 …

[CrowBat]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/...
A very interesting read, thanks a lot.


Still, assuming the Saudi officials are innocent, keeping this secret has simply made it worse. And if some of the officials are guilty, then they need to be held responsible.Full agreement.

There was absolutely no point in keeping Saudi involvement 'secret' all through 2001-2008 period: anybody with at least a trace of clue about US-Saudi relations knew they were, while those Saudis that wanted to do so were just given years of time to continue making troubles (or at least financing those who did so). ...which they would've been unable to do, if sacked on time.

There's even less so a reason to keep this secret ever since.

I - and I'm surely the first to admit I'm poorly informed about what's up in the USA - have first heard of this report in... must've been in late 2012 or early 2013... around the time Prince Bandar was sacked from all of his positions. Back then the story was that he was sacked (and Saudis didn't get deeper involved in Syria) in exchange for keeping this report back.

From my POV, that was little else but treachery (treachery of the US government against its own people): absolutely nothing in US interest.

Indeed, considering probable repercussions at earlier times (say: before 2012, when it would've likely caused sacking of nearly all the top royals too, and their replacement by more sane people), it was counter-productive and not the least in Saudi interests either.

[CrowBat]

[B]Commander of #IRGC ground forces saying they sent their forces to #Syria for training, and #USA is their main enemy.Oh, what a surprise... isn't it?

Especially in the light of all the possible Western businessmen being so eager to go making billions in Iran: makes me wonder, how do they want to do so with an IRGC-regime in power?

Sure, IRGCs are as easy to bribe like all other Iranians. But, if that's going to make business with them anything like 'profitable'...?


Saudi's have once or twice alluded to the cost of production being 2/3USDs per barrelThat's the approx price they sell it at home. Means: their probable production price is not even half of that.


...AND Putin seems to have forgotten that it was the Saudi's that drove down the oil price in the 90s that collapsed the Soviet Union.......and Iran to accept a cease-fire with Iraq... and then this was what bankrupted Iraq etc...

[OUTLAW 09]

The interesting "missing 28 pages" might in fact be about Saudi back channel funding BUT a far more critical aspect that is not being discussed here and CrowBat brought it up as did the IRGC Commander with his comment he is training for war with the US.

A well known ME analyst type has kept pounding away that there is far more Iranian involvement with IS/AQ than the Obama WH and his NSC truly wants us to understand.

AND it dates BEFORE 9/11........

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
"Iran never paid a price for [killing our soldiers in #Iraq], any more than it did for waging a global terrorist war against the West".

Appears in the Obama WH drive to implement the Iran Deal even Obama overlooked the simple fact that one of the most deadliest IEDs...the EFPs were manufactured and then smuggled into Iraq from Iran......notice not a single attempt by the Obama WH to punish Iran for this...instead Obama hopes for "moderates" and passes IRGC and Khamenei 150B USDs.

Iran’s Partnership with al-Qaeda and Unanswered Questions
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on September 19, 2015
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...red-questions/

Also from 1992, Hizballah chief + IRGC officer Imad Mughniyeh was training al-Qaeda jihadis in the Bekaa, jointly did Khobar, etc

More than a decade BEFORE there was an Al Qaeda
Hezbollah carried out a suicide bombing against US embassy in #Beirut 33 years today, killed 60 US Marines & staff.

Then this yesterday.......
Saudi cash and #Iranian know how - al-Qa’ida and 9/11
http://observer.com/2016/04/uncovering-the-hidden-truths-of-911/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Well we are now just short of a Turkish and Saudi intervention into Syria....

https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2...a-meb-feb2016/


Kerry ‘blames opposition’ for continued Syria bombing via MEB Feb/2016


US Secretary of State John Kerry told Syrian aid workers, hours after the Geneva peace talks fell apart, that the country should expect another three months of bombing that would “decimate” the opposition.

During a conversation on the sidelines of this week’s Syria donor conference in London, sources say Kerry blamed the Syrian opposition for leaving the talks and paving the way for a joint offensive by the Syrian government and Russia on Aleppo.

“‘He said, ‘Don’t blame me – go and blame your opposition,’” one of the aid workers, who asked to remain anonymous to protect her organization, told Middle East Eye.

Kerry told reporters on Friday, as tens of thousands fled the Syrian government and Russian bombardment of Aleppo, that both Russia and Iran, another of Syria’s allies, have told him that they are prepared for a ceasefire in Syria.

He said he would know “whether or not these parties are serious” after a meeting of the International Syria Support Group – 17 nations including the US and Russia – scheduled to be held in Munich next week.

But Kerry left the aid workers with the distinct impression that the US is abandoning efforts to support rebel fighters.

Kerry told reporters on Friday, as tens of thousands fled the Syrian government and Russian bombardment of Aleppo, that both Russia and Iran, another of Syria’s allies, have told him that they are prepared for a ceasefire in Syria.

CAN anyone explain to me just why does Kerry believe he can trust anything Putin and Khamenei tell him...REMEMBER it was Kerry who stated twice that Iran was pulling out their troops..instead more flowed into Syrian...AND Putin stated he was withdrawing but sent more into Syria....

[SWJ Blog]

White House: Obama 'Cleared the Air' with Saudi Arabia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/white-house-obama-cleared-the-air-with-saudi-arabia)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/white-house-obama-cleared-the-air-with-saudi-arabia) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A somewhat strange article on Open Democracy, partly as the title indicates the military is in focus and there is very little mention of them:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/hesham-shafick/why-is-military-coup-in-saudi-arabia-possible? (https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/hesham-shafick/why-is-military-coup-in-saudi-arabia-possible?utm_source=Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=0888d0bbb2-DAILY_NEWSLETTER_MAILCHIMP&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_717bc5d86d-0888d0bbb2-407365113)

Plus no distinction is made between the various military bodies, notably the Army and the National Guard.

What I did find interesting was the argument that:
First and formost, the kingdom has lost most of the historical roots of its legitimacy. Since the foundation of the modern kingdom, its legitimacy has been grounded on three main pillars: Sunnism, nationalism and kinship......As for the third pillar, theocratic legitimacy, it is about to fall, particularly after the kingdom’s decision to terminate the powers of the official Wahhabistagency that reinforces Islamic order – the 'Organisation for the Prevention of Vice and the Promotion of Virtue'.

I recall long ago a British diplomat talking at an event that the UK had two nightmares, a military coup in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - each with an Islamist or radical tinge. Somehow he'd forgotten Gadafy's coup in Libya, which had consequences for the UK and others.

[OUTLAW 09]

Smoke rising from the site of an explosion in Medina #SaudiArabia

Critical..........
The attack near the Nabawi Mosque is meant to delegitimize Saudi Arabia as the Custodian (and thus defender) of the Two Holy Mosques #Medina

BREAKING: The suicide bomber was not able to enter the #ProphetMosque courtyard.

The suicide bomber failed to enter al-Omran mosque and detonated his vest outside due to tight security measures

But to me #ISIS (assuming it is ISIS) crossed a red line, and this image shows that the group attacks Islam not #SaudiArabia

ISIS may try to "justify" it attack by claiming it targeted security forces, images are more powerful than workds #SaudiArabia

Suicide bombing attacks were reported in three locations of Saudi Arabia: Jeddah, Qatif and Medina #SaudiArabi #KSA

ISIS will be condemned/may not issue claim even if security installation was the target given that Medina mosque is holy to all Muslims

Now reports suggest four soldiers were killed in attack against security outpost near Nabwi Mosque in #Medina


For comments/analysis on the attacks in Saudi Arabia really recommend you follow/talk to @Miriam411 #SaudiArabia

[OUTLAW 09]

Attacking the city of the Prophet (ﷺ) is a clear violation - only the khawārij, and false prophets have attacked #Medina

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran Assembly of Experts chair Jannati: "Al Saud should kno that they are on the verge of extinction...their days are numbered"

A terrorist attack in the Prophet’s mosque and next to his resting place is orders of magnitude more offensive than the cartoons.

IS's goal is to get Saudi Sunnis and Shia at each others throats.


[OUTLAW 09]

Iran Assembly of Experts chair Jannati: "Al Saud should kno that they are on the verge of extinction...their days are numbered"

A terrorist attack in the Prophet’s mosque and next to his resting place is orders of magnitude more offensive than the cartoons.

IS's goal is to get Saudi Sunnis and Shia at each others throats.


Kind of neatly sums up key targets of #ISIS violence in KSA: the State, the Shia, and Westerners.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan

Isis attacks near the holiest Islamic site during the holiest third of the holiest month
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36706761 …
......that's CVE for you.

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraiq Shia cleric but self-styled secular has a theory about what produces a suicide bomber: homosexuality + Quran:

Has not been my experience in talking to captured suiciders....but hey he is a Shia cleric....explains it all.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian opposition groups released a statement condemning yesterdays attacks in Saudi Arabia .

[OUTLAW 09]

Radio silence from official #IS channels re #Medina is deafening. Many fans distancing themselves, some even suggesting it was a false flag.

[OUTLAW 09]

Imam of Prophets mosque in Saudi "terrorism is a global problem not exclusive to Muslims & influenced by Satan"

The irony. #Iraq|i Shiite war criminal Abu Azrael on top a #USA Abrams tank vows to storm Kaaba in Mecca

Sectarian Shia Hashd militant who threatened to destroy Kaaba, guess where he is today, in Medina!

[OUTLAW 09]

David Patrikarakos @dpatrikarakos
My latest piece - on the bombings in Saudi Arabia.
http://www.rferl.org/content/saudi-bombings-legacy-of-bin-laden/27841310.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

The ISIS bombings in Saudi Arabia signal a start of 'Jihad 2.0' —
http://read.bi/29Oi36T

[OUTLAW 09]

The ISIS bombings in Saudi Arabia signal a start of 'Jihad 2.0' —
http://read.bi/29Oi36T

ISIS's footprint in Saudi Arabia: Persistent but surmountable threat.
http://bit.ly/29nVd8O

[OUTLAW 09]

Saudi Interior Ministry names Qatif, Medina bombers; suspects arrested http://reut.rs/29qHkZf

[OUTLAW 09]

Attacking the city of the Prophet (ﷺ) is a clear violation - only the khawārij, and false prophets have attacked #Medina

Would suggest that SWJ readers go back and Google the Islamic term Khawarij as it caught my attention when it was posted....this poster truly knows Islam....and I find it interesting he uses a term found deeply buried in the history of Islam... since the term can be used in a number of ways to signify say Shia...or Takfiri......but the poster left it to the reader to pick which one....

[davidbfpo]

I have seen references to the historical and this thread often has posts on the sometimes supportive role Pakistan plays now in Saudi security. So thanks to a "lurker":
In the aftermath of the 1979 takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by extremists, Saudi Arabia was looking for foreign troops from a Muslim country to address its internal security dilemma.
On return, the delegation recommended to General Zia ul Haq that Pakistan should only send advisors and trainers, but no combat troops should be sent to Saudi Arabia as this will complicate Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia’s neighbors. Zia overruled and agreed to deployment of a large Pakistani contingent.
Saudi Arabia was looking at this contingent from mainly internal security point of view and they wanted operational and administrative control of the contingent. Kallue was of the view that a Pakistani officer should be the overall commander of the Pakistani force and on this issue he did not go to Riyadh. In 1982, a formal agreement was signed and Saudi Pakistan Armed Forces Organization (SPAFO) headquarters was established at Riyadh. Pakistani troops were stationed at different locations in the kingdom and numbered about 17,000.
An enlarged armoured brigade consisting of three armoured regiments, one armoured infantry battalion, one artillery regiment and other supporting elements was stationed at Tabuk. …An anti-air craft regiment as well as an artillery regiment were stationed at Khamis Mushayet while technical and EME elements were stationed at Taif. In addition, trainers from the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy were also stationed in Saudi Arabia.
Taken from the Pakistani Defence Journal, October 2016

[OUTLAW 09]

Al Arabiya English
✔
@AlArabiya_Eng
#BREAKING: Saudi Interior Ministry: ISIS cells in #SaudiArabia have spread to Mecca, Medina, Riyadh and Qassim

SaudiArabia dismantles four #ISIS cells, arrests 18 individuals
http://ara.tv/buehy

[davidbfpo]

There is a separate thread Pakistan and Arab World: Security Cooperation (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/Pakistan and Arab World: Security Cooperation) which contributes to KSA security. It is a young thread, with 19 posts and nearly 14k views.

[davidbfpo]

So the King has been on a tour of South-East Asia, with promises of investment and trade:
Taking in Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan, China and the Maldives, the king spent March leading a concerted effort to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s commercial links with Asia’s fast-growing economies.The author concludes there can be a downside:
Investment with the heft the Saudis offer is too tempting to pass up, but King Salman’s visit will only help export his country’s hardline doctrine to places where that could do without it. Both Malaysia and Indonesia urgently need to ease tensions between restive religious communities, but Saudi Arabia aims to open more Islamic schools across South-East Asia, increasing not only literacy in the Arabic language but also Saudi religious teaching and influence. That could be a heavy price tag indeed.Link:https://theconversation.com/a-rattled-saudi-arabia-pivots-for-support-to-south-east-asia-74856? (https://theconversation.com/a-rattled-saudi-arabia-pivots-for-support-to-south-east-asia-74856?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20 for%20March%2022%202017%20-%2070235271&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20f or%20March%2022%202017%20-%2070235271+CID_79e4fc9452b49117044ac3d6af47e4ba&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=A%20rattled%20Saudi%20Arabia%20pivots%20f or%20support%20to%20South-East%20Asia)

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia Seeking Nuke Weapons Capability; In Early Stages Of Possible Weapon Research To Counter Iran

I'm sure this has absolutely nothing to do with KSA's "secret" funding of Pakistan's A-Bomb.

Turkey's next, btw.

[davidbfpo]

This Open Democracy article will be copied to the historical Egypt thread and the current Egypt thread that contains a few posts on the two islands being transferred from Egypt occupation back to Saudi Arabia. That thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=18454&page=5

It is raises some interesting points, notably the KSA-Israeli relationship. I had missed this news, with my emphasis:
As such, the expected transfer of the islands is revealing a number of regional dynamics. The most vivid example of which is the new perceived strategic role of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is expanding its role in the horn of Africa, especially with the recent conclusion of a deal (https://www.ft.com/content/c8f63492-dc14-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce) with Djibouti to build a military base on its territory. The strategic location of the base, across the Yemeni shore, gives Saudi Arabia the ability to project its power over the Bab El Mandab strait. This serves to consolidate the position of Saudi Arabia as the reigning power over the Red Sea.Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/maged-mandour/changing-security-dynamic-of-red-sea?

[OUTLAW 09]

Saudi Arabia captures, questions three members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps on a boat in a critical KSA offshore oil field and the boat was loaded with weapons and explosives....


http://read.bi/2siIQ6k

Added by Moderator: Iran denies it was an IRGC boat:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/19/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-persian-gulf.html?

[davidbfpo]

Hamid Hussain has sent a commentary on the struggles with the Saudi Royal Family and their usually quiet competitors for influence. It is seven pages and is on the attachment.

It starts with:
In the last two years, Saudi Arabia has gone through many changes. Absolute monarchies are not easy to decipher. There are many opacities and it is very difficult for any outside observer to have a real sense of events. Two main factors are very limited expression by Saudis in their own country and opaque decision making process in the form of decrees with flavor of palace intrigue. A Saudi will not express his honest view in the presence of another Saudi due to fear factor. In view of these limitations, the perspective of an outsider has severe limitations.

Current system of governance of the country is based on accession to throne of one of the sons of the founder of the country Abdul Aziz bin Abdur Rahman al-Saud (d. 1953). He works with other family members especially senior princes, Council of Ministers (most of whom are also royal family members) and Council of Senior Clerics in running day to day affairs of the country. There is a fair amount of competition among all these groups about various issues and King carefully balances his act to avoid open conflict.

[davidbfpo]

I am aware that the minority Shia population, mainly in the Eastern Province, are not the happiest Saudi citizens; with occasional rioting and more.

So I was surprised to read that one town has been under siege for two months:
....the Saudi government had just begun a war on a town in the country’s restive east – a battle that is still raging despite receiving very little media coverage both within the conservative Kingdom and outside it. Traditionally Shia, Awamiyah – a 400-year-old district in the eastern Qatif province home to around 30,000 people – has been surrounded by siege barricades put up by the security services since attempts to evict residents turned violent on 10 May.Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-siege-town-own-citizens-government-kingdom-military-government-awamiyah-qatif-a7877676.html

This report has a short film of protected diggers demolishing buildings, with armoured vehicles close by and firing machine gun bursts:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170808-saudi-arabias-forgotten-war-strikes-back/#.WYm96zbaQSA.twitter

[davidbfpo]

Following the purge in KSA yesterday Bruce Reidel has a short commentary and he ends with:
The kingdom is at a crossroads (https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/11/05/Princes-and-former-ministers-detained-in-Jeddah-floods-and-Coronoa-virus-corruption-probe.html): Its economy has flatlined with low oil prices; the war in Yemen (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/saudi-arabia-yemen-save-ali-abdullah-saleh-russia.html) is a quagmire; the blockade of Qatar (https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2017/9/20/saudi-crackdown-on-dissent-linked-to-failed-qatar-boycott) is a failure; Iranian influence (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/08/iran-role-qatar-new-foreign-policy-gcc-dispute-saudi-arabia.html) is rampant in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq; and the succession is a question mark. It is the most volatile period in Saudi history in over a half-century.Link:https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-remove-opponents-national-guard.html

The BBC's report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41874117

[davidbfpo]

A lengthy profile of MBS, the Crown Prince which is not complimentary and at the end concludes:
Bin Salman has two essential goals, which help understand each and every one of his domestic and regional policies including his aggression against Qatar, his alliance-building activity with the UAE and Egypt, his war in Yemen, his efforts to secure western support by talking a little “liberal Islam”, and more: the first goal is to prevent a resumption of the ‘Arab Spring’. Those autocrats have all felt the heat in 2011, they feel a bit better now, but they also know that the ashes of that historic revolution are still burning under the snow and ice of the ‘Arab winter’. The second goal is, as mentioned earlier, regional Saudi supremacism and, if he could, the destruction of the KSA’s arch enemy and rival, Iran. There is nothing this crown prince and future king will not do or push others (Israel, Trump, etc.) to do to accomplish those two goals. If this dangerous character has his ways, it will mean the end of hope for Arab democracy, and wars without end throughout the whole region.Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/alain-gabon/saudi-arabia-s-crown-prince-mohammad-bin-salman-threat-not-reform?

[davidbfpo]

A short Brookings article by Bruce Reidel and as a taster:
The only clear winner is Iran. The top American general in the region said this week (https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/us-general-iran-achieved-in-five-years-in-yemen-what-it-did-in-lebanon-in-two-decades-1.708639?utm_source=Eye+on+Iran%3A++New+Satellite+ Photos+Show+Iran+Establishing+Another+Base+in+Syri a&utm_campaign=eye-on-iran&utm_medium=email) that Iran has accomplished more in Yemen in the last five years than it did in building up Hezbollah in Lebanon in 20 years. When the war began in Yemen, Iran had limited connections to the Houthis, it urged caution on the rebels but was ignored. Now it has a robust relationship. Iran has every reason to perpetuate a conflict that costs its rival Saudi Arabia some $5 billion per month and costs Iran a pittance.Link:https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/03/01/whats-behind-the-sudden-ouster-of-top-saudi-military-commanders/

[AdamG]

PARIS: Saudi Arabia has threatened military action against Qatar if it goes ahead and acquires Russia's top of the range S-400 air defence missile system, Le Monde daily reported. Citing information it had obtained, Le Monde said Friday that Riyadh had written to French President Emmanuel Macron asking him to intervene to prevent the deal going ahead and to help preserve regional stability.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-warns-of-military-action-if-qatar-gets-russian-missiles-report/articleshow/64427860.cms

[AdamG]

A year-long political conflict between the tiny, wealthy state of Qatar and its larger neighbours - including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - has been fought with a new arsenal of weapons: bots, fake news and hacking.

In the early hours of 24 May 2017, a news story appeared on the website of Qatar's official news agency, QNA, reporting that the country's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, had made an astonishing speech.

The quotes then appeared on the QNA's social media accounts and on the news ticker running along the bottom of the screen on videos uploaded to the agency's YouTube channel.

The emir was quoted praising Islamist groups Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood. And perhaps most controversially of all, Iran, Saudi Arabia's arch-rival.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-44294826

[davidbfpo]

Noticed this film is on release in the UK & USA and their website describes the film as:
PATH OF BLOOD depicts Islamist terrorism, as it has never been seen before. Drawn from a hoard of jihadi home-movie footage that was captured by Saudi security services, this is the story of Muslim terrorists targeting Muslim civilians and brought to justice by Muslim security agents. It is a stark reminder that all who are touched by terrorism are victimized by it. A powerful and sometimes shocking cinematic experience, PATH OF BLOOD reveals how brainwashed youths, fuelled by idealism and the misguided pursuit of adventure, can descend into madness and carnage. The raw, unvarnished footage, to which the filmmakers negotiated exclusive access, captures young thrill-seekers at a jihadi “boot camp” deep in the Saudi desert, having signed on to overthrow the Saudi government. They plot to detonate car bombs in downtown Riyadh, become embroiled in a game of cat and-mouse with government forces and, as their plans unravel, resort to ever more brutal tactics. Adopting a strictly objective approach, the film doesn’t editorialize and contains no interviews or “talking heads” commentary. The home video footage was shot by the terrorists themselves, allowing viewers to see them in all their complexity, while compelling audiences to draw their own conclusions.

Their website refers to a book:
It is co-authored by PATH OF BLOOD co-producer Thomas Small and director/producer Jonathan Hacker. Building upon the two years of research, the book draws on interviews conducted with members of the Saudi security forces, Western diplomatic and security officials, on- and off-the-record briefings from the Ministry of Interior and captured Al Qaeda terrorists. This access allows the authors to tell in detail the full story of a single Al Qaeda campaign and its defeat by the country’s internal security services. The Literary Review described the book as “A genuine page turner that offers some real insights…a fascinating piece of work... a grimly fascinating read...highly recommended.”
Link:http://www.pathofbloodfilm.com/

I have not seen the film, but is was shown this week in London.

[AdamG]

Prominent journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi was reportedly killed at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in what the paper's sources are calling "a preplanned murder." The Post said that neither source provided evidence to support this claim. Khashoggi, 59, was reported missing on Tuesday while visiting the consulate for paperwork needed to marry his Turkish fiancée. He was living in the U.S. for the past year in self-imposed exile following the ascension of Prince Mohammed

https://www.foxnews.com/world/washington-post-contributor-reportedly-killed-by-saudi-team-in-preplanned-murder-paper-says

Jamal Khashoggi was dragged from the consul general's office inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last Tuesday before he was brutally murdered by two men who cut up his body, sources close to the investigation have told Middle East Eye.

Turkish officials say they know when and where in the building the veteran Saudi journalist was killed and are considering whether to dig up the consul-general's garden to see whether his remains are buried there.

Khashoggi, 59, has been missing since last Tuesday when he entered the consulate to obtain paperwork so he could remarry, and has not been seen since.

Saudi officials have strongly denied any involvement in his disappearance and say that he left the consulate soon after arriving. However they have not presented any evidence to corroborate their claim and say that video cameras at the consolate were not recording at the time.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-1433170798

[AdamG]

It took seven minutes for Jamal Khashoggi to die, a Turkish source who has listened in full to an audio recording of the Saudi journalist's last moments told Middle East Eye. Khashoggi was dragged from the Consul General’s office at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and onto the table of his study next door, the Turkish source said. Horrendous screams were then heard by a witness downstairs, the source said.

"The consul himself was taken out of the room. There was no attempt to interrogate him. They had come to kill him,” the source told MEE.

The screaming stopped when Khashoggi - who was last seen entering the Saudi consulate on 2 October - was injected with an as yet unknown substance.

Salah Muhammad al-Tubaigy, who has been identified as the head of forensic evidence in the Saudi general security department, was one of the 15-member squad who arrived in Ankara earlier that day on a private jet. Tubaigy began to cut Khashoggi’s body up on a table in the study while he was still alive, the Turkish source said. The killing took seven minutes, the source said.

As he started to dismember the body, Tubaigy put on earphones and listened to music. He advised other members of the squad to do the same. “When I do this job, I listen to music. You should do [that] too,” Tubaigy was recorded as saying, the source told MEE.

A three-minute version of the audio tape has been given to Turkish newspaper Sabah, but they have yet to release it.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-khashoggi-829291552

[davidbfpo]

The current media and political furore over the suspected murder of Jamal Khashoggi inside Saudi diplomatic premises has taken on many dimensions, whilst ignoring many others. Notably the famine and deaths in the Yemen. Plus the actions of the Turkish government towards their own journalists.

Might the murder actually have an impact on the Saudis and their waging war in the Yemen?

[davidbfpo]

A profound comment by Rami Khouri via Twitter:
An important element of this episode is that normal, ordinary people around the world now understand how normal, ordinary Arabs have felt during the past 5 decades of authoritarian governments that treat their citizens like idiots or sheep, almost always with foreign support.
His short bio:
Senior Fellow & journalism professor, American Univ. of Beirut;syndicated columnist; nonresident senior fellow, Harvard Kennedy School.

Needless to say the KSA explanation appears to be flawed and has been changed yet again.

[davidbfpo]

I missed this BBC News report in August 2017, it is fascinating reading and proves the KSA probably thought "We've done thsi before, who will care this time?". It opens with:
Between 2015 and 2017, three Saudi princes living in Europe disappeared. All were critical of the Saudi government - and there is evidence that all were abducted and flown back to Saudi Arabia… where nothing further has been heard from them.

There is an update:
Update, October 2018: Two months after this story was published the former head of Saudi intelligence, Prince Turki al-Fasial, confirmed that all three missing princes were back in Saudi Arabia. Prince Khaled bin Farhan, meanwhile, says he has heard from sources inside the country that Prince Turki bin Bandar and Saud bin Saif al-Nasr have both been executed. This could not be independently confirmed.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-40926963

[davidbfpo]

Just what difference this announcement will make is unclear and citing Secretary Mattis:
we support the decision by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, after consultations with the U.S. Government, to use the Coalition's own military capabilities to conduct inflight refueling in support of its operations in Yemen.

Then KSA:
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the member countries of the Coalition to Support legitimacy in Yemen, continually pursue improvements to military professionalism and self-sufficiency.....Recently the Kingdom and the Coalition has increased its capability to independently conduct inflight refueling in Yemen. As a result, in consultation with the United States, the Coalition has requested cessation of inflight refueling support for it's operations in Yemen.
Link:https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/saudi-arabia-yemen-bombing-pentagon-refueling-982924

Since few countries sell inflight refueling planes and systems I assume KSA has purchased what is needed. The 2017 'Military Balance' shows KSA has fifteen tankers, a mix of KC-130 and A330; whilst UAE has three A330.

[AdamG]

Reading Music (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_pTtypgHQo)


Mujtahid, a respected Saudi social media voice, reported on the Al-Khaleej Online newspaper earlier this week that Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman had reshuffled military personnel and assets inside the kingdom in response to rumors that some members of the royal family may have been planning a coup against him.

https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Saudi-Arabias-Bin-Salman-Takes-Preemptive-Action-Against-Coup-Threat-573214

[davidbfpo]

A commentary by Hamid Hussain, a regular contributor:
Overview of challenges faced by Saudi Arabia and role of Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS). His meteoric rise from obscurity in an interesting phenomenon.

Due to size it is on the attachment.