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View Full Version : The Chinese Espionage Threat


Jedburgh
07-21-2008, 02:07 PM
TimesOnline, 20 Jul 08: Gordon Brown aide a victim of honeytrap operation by Chinese agents (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4364353.ece)
.....Downing Street yesterday confirmed that a member of the prime minister’s office had lost a BlackBerry during an evening event on the January visit to China. However, it played down the affair, stating that an investigation had established that there was “no compromise to security”.

Last week it emerged that US intelligence and security officials were debating whether to warn business people and other travellers heading to the Beijing Olympics about the dangers posed by Chinese computer hackers.

Joel Brenner, the US government’s top counter-intelligence official, warned: “So many people are going to the Olympics and are going to get electronically undressed.”
JF's China Brief, 17 Jul 08: The Evolution of Espionage: Beijing’s Red Spider Web (http://www.jamestown.org/china_brief/article.php?articleid=2374310)
.....What we know thus far about China’s espionage activities against U.S. weapons laboratories and other technology development programs is cause enough for concern. The U.S. intelligence community’s official damage assessment of Chinese espionage targeting America’s nuclear technology secrets tells us this much:

What we know:

• China obtained by espionage classified U.S. nuclear weapons information that probably accelerated its program to develop future nuclear weapons. This collection program allowed China to focus successfully on critical paths and avoid less promising approaches to nuclear weapon designs.
• China obtained at least basic design information on several modern U.S. nuclear reentry vehicles, including the Trident II (W88).
• China also obtained information on a variety of U.S. weapon design concepts and weaponization features, including those of the neutron bomb.

What we don’t know:

• We cannot determine the full extent of weapon information obtained. For example, we do not know whether any weapon design documentation or blueprints were acquired.
• We believe it is more likely that the Chinese used U.S. design information to inform their own program than to replicate U.S. weapon designs.

Yet there is much more to China’s quest for U.S. technology. China has obtained a major advantage that the former KGB did not enjoy during the Cold War: unprecedented access to American academic institutions and industry.....

selil
07-21-2008, 02:47 PM
In a nation that is up in arms about the NSA tapping into every single conversation and data packet people are pretty sanguine about going to China. China, a totalitarian communist regime with a state owned/controlled telephone and data network with some of the most sophisticated snooping technologies on the planet. Go ahead and complain about limited snooping in the US by the NSA with over sight, and then go to China for vacation. I'll never understand.

Van
07-21-2008, 07:05 PM
Once upon a time, someone translated a Mossad mnemonic for the espionage recruiting basic approaches; it was three words (alliterative in Hebrew) and I'd swear one of them was sex...

I think the bigger story than "OMG! China does espionage!" is "Jeesh, look at the caliber of aide our senior ('our' in the NATO collective, I'm U.S. but it still applies to U.S. leadership) civilian leaders pick for themselves." The guy can't keep his britches zipped in the middle of a counter-intell threat that is off the scale. What a winner.

Is it a bad thing if I laugh my butt off when it turns out the girl was a minor and someone has some 'happy snaps'?

Jedburgh
07-21-2008, 09:05 PM
Is it a bad thing if I laugh my butt off when it turns out the girl was a minor and someone has some 'happy snaps'?
If they were going to coerce him through blackmail into a productive source, they would not have compromised him at the outset by taking his Blackberry. Poor tradecraft, and the Chinese aren't such amateurs that they'd set him up for one and ruin the effort by doing the other.

Van
07-21-2008, 09:14 PM
they'd set him up for one and ruin the effort by doing the other.

I was being facetious, but...

A multipexed operation to maximize options and create deniability and media confusion? Use a girl just under the legal age, so if the pigeon complains about the stolen gadget, they can charge the victim of an intell op with statutory rape. If he doesn't report the theft, they can go with extortion. Deniability, as they can point out that she's a minor, and they'd never use a minor like that (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). If the target tries to make a stink in the media, they make a bigger one?

But I'm just thinking out loud, and I was joking in the first place.

davidbfpo
07-21-2008, 09:22 PM
For a detailed commentary: http://www.spyblog.org.uk

Why do we assume it was the Chinese government?

davidbfpo

Jedburgh
07-21-2008, 09:37 PM
I was being facetious, but...

A multipexed operation to maximize options and create deniability and media confusion? Use a girl just under the legal age, so if the pigeon complains about the stolen gadget, they can charge the victim of an intell op with statutory rape. If he doesn't report the theft, they can go with extortion. Deniability, as they can point out that she's a minor, and they'd never use a minor like that (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). If the target tries to make a stink in the media, they make a bigger one?

But I'm just thinking out loud, and I was joking in the first place.
No, joking is fine - but I do think it is important to understand the nature of the threat, and I appreciate your throwing out the examples.

Recruiting a source - whether willingly or through coercion - is best kept as simple as possible. Complexity = risk and putting too many layers on it - especially with the risk of image blowback through the use of a minor in a sexual situation - is not something that would be used by the Chinese against a target at that level (especially just prior to the Olympics).

Deniability in this case is also simple - being rolled by a hooker is something that occurs often enough everywhere in the world for the Chinese simply to pass it off as common theft as opposed to a targeted lift.

Coercion to keep someone quiet about a theft is not that common in espionage (much more common in the criminal world). Even without the individual's confession, the outright theft of an item desired by a hostile intelligence agency would usually be noticed. Coercion is more commonly used to obtain information/items that the source has access to, and that can be obtained and delivered by the source in a manner that won't compromise his position.