Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014) [Archive] - Page 4

Dayuhan

04-02-2014, 12:29 AM

Dayuhan---who taught you that taking sentence by sentence making your own comments is a form of dialogue?

Citations from the post replied to are a standard convention in internet discourse. When you're replying to a post that could be a page or two back on a busy thread you need a point of reference, and reproducing the entire post is cumbersome.

Back to nationalism---these is also two new forms of nationalism that just cropped up in the Russian dialogue as seen in Interfax this morning from last night and over the last few days.

Economic/political nationalism are now political tools being used by Putin---as I mentioned to you earlier in comments directed to you Putin is jammed up right now by his earlier moves in the Crimea. So how does he come out of the jam---he uses nationalism in new undefined forms and it appears to the West just to be "politics". We have since the Cold War days in the West looked at the "politics", but we never did understand the underlying nationalisms that was driving those "politics" we were "seeing".

These are not new forms of nationalism, nor are they in any way undefined. The political and economic application of nationalism are as old as nationalism itself. Yes, they are politics. They have an impact on politics in many nations, probably most, though often at a somewhat less visible level. Again, though, you're not explaining how the rather obvious reality that nationalism is a factor in current Russian politics and actions leads you to an elevated threat assessment.

Some in the Force have actually understand the concept of "seeing and understanding" but they are few and far between.

I wouldn't know about the Force, but I'd point out that failure to agree with you cannot be equated to failure to see and understand.

The reasons he used there are not working currently as the Ukrainian oligarchs in the east and south have made a decision that business inside the EU is better than the CIS/Russia and are damping down the proRussian groups and the Ukrainian security forces are getting better at fishing out Russian agents/provocateurs and are controlling better the busses coming from Russia.

That's probably one reason, and it makes sense: when facing an opportunist it is wise not to provide opportunities. I expect there are probably other reasons as well: oligarchs in Russia will certainly exploit nationalism but their own loyalty is to themselves and their finances, and they may well be concerned with the possibility of added sanctions. We of course do not know what's going on between Putin and the oligarchs, but it seems unlikely that the position of the Ukrainian oligarchy alone would be sufficient to deter Putin from doing something he really wants to do.

So where to with an argument that sounds "legal" in his head that he thinks he can "sell" the West on---the political and economic nationalism is next.

I don't think he's selling the West on anything: nobody buys his rationalizations or his pseudo-legalisms. Those are more for domestic consumption, with a bit of a message for the Russian enclaves he's like to re-absorb as well.

21:22 Economic woes may put Transdniestria on "unpredictable" path - Russian diplomat

So since you enjoy making individual comments then what is being implied by "unpredictable path".

That's pretty obvious: he wants it and if he gets an opportunity and thinks the penalty won't be too severe, he'll take it.

Different kettle of fish from Crimea of course... in one sense easier, in that the target has been effectively autonomous for some time and there are fairly strong indications that much of the populace actually would prefer to be part of Russia. More difficult in some ways also: Russia doesn't have military facilities in place, as they did in Crimea. They'd have to cross the southern Ukraine to get there, and would have to absorb the southern Ukraine to administer Transdniestria as anything but a remote and inaccessible enclave. I'm sure Putin would do that if he was presented with (or could create) an opportunity, and if he thought the cost would be limited. Whether that's the case is another question.

OUTLAW 09

04-02-2014, 12:34 PM

To wm/Dayuhan----in all your comments made on a series of my comments concerning Russian nationalism and the intentions of Putin going forward and on military stationing by Russian forces---read this and tell me then that NATO is not only signaling they "see" now the Russian "intent" and they fully "understand the intent" and are issuing via the media that they are in the midst of responding to the threat which they now view as indeed a threat to the Ukraine, the Baltics, Romanian and Finland and lastly Poland.

wm---there was a true reason for Breedlove to come back and not to hold his Senate hearing ---right? Did not see him fly back on Tuesday.

Firn---the Russian CB press release might just be the signal that they are going to go for it as the CB is indicating that they will provide support in the event of "Political risks are significant now, and they will be particularly relevant if Russian banks and companies encounter limitations for refinancing on western markets"---Why the proactive stance when sanctions have not increased and if "the Russian Army is pulling back as Putin has stated"?

David---there are photos in the article that match the tank rail shipping link you had yesterday---the tanks were being loaded and shipped to the Crimea---the core question is now WHY? Caption states T72s but they really look like 80/90s ---one needs to see the roller wheel skirts in order to have a clean ID--besides the 72s are a far older model and virtually out of service since the 80/90s came in---they really were mostly for export anyway--and the Ukrainians have the 80s as well---notice the photos are at angles in order to make identification harder for the OSINT analyst.

Variations of this article from Mail Online were in the WSJ and carried as well by Reuters for the widest dissemination so that Russia gets the message.

REFERENCE the oil weapon article I included yesterday---now see the connection between the "practice run" of flooding the world market with sour crude in order to damage the Russian economy---and if one read the Interfax PR on current liquidity issues now in Russia they are starting to struggle .

IMO Putin will now go for it in the Ukraine as the economics of this thing are getting out of control for Russia especially since the Ukrainian elections are in late May and in the end Russian nationalism will drive this and then Putin will sit back and bunker in as he has what he wanted.

From Mail Online article from today:

Russia has amassed all the forces it needs on Ukraine's border to carry out an 'incursion' into the country and it could achieve its objective in three to five days, NATO's top military commander said on Wednesday.
Calling the situation 'incredibly concerning', NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, said NATO had spotted signs of movement by a very small part of the Russian force overnight, but had no indication that it was returning to barracks.

NATO military chiefs are concerned that the Russian force on the Ukrainian border, which they estimate stands at 40,000 soldiers, could pose a threat to eastern and southern Ukraine.
'This is a very large and very capable and very ready force,' Breedlove said in an interview with Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.
The Russian force has aircraft and helicopter support as well as field hospitals and electronic warfare capabilities.
'The entire suite that would be required to successfully have an incursion into Ukraine should the decision be made,' Breedlove said.
'We think it is ready to go and we think it could accomplish its objectives in between three and five days if directed to make the actions.'

He said Russia could have several potential objectives, including an incursion into southern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, pushing beyond Crimea to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa or even threatening to connect to Transdniestria, the mainly Russian-speaking, separatist region of Moldova that lies to the west of Ukraine.
Russia also has forces to the north and northeast of Ukraine that could enter eastern Ukraine if Moscow ordered them to do so, Breedlove said.
Any such actions would have far-reaching implications for NATO, a military alliance of 28 nations that has been the core of European defence for more than 60 years.
'We are going to have to look at how our alliance now is prepared for a different paradigm, a different rule set... we will need to rethink our force posture, our force positioning, our force provisioning, readiness, etc,' Breedlove said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2595029/Russia-forces-needs-Ukraines-borders-carry-invasion-three-days-warns-NATO-general.html#ixzz2xj6pwkX7

Stan

04-02-2014, 02:49 PM

... read this and tell me then that NATO is not only signaling they "see" now the Russian "intent" and they fully "understand the intent" and are issuing via the media that they are in the midst of responding to the threat which they now view as indeed a threat to the Ukraine, the Baltics, Romanian and Finland and lastly Poland.

I'm a tad concerned that NATO would use the media to indicate they are in the midst of responding. Estonia's President simply told them to go after the Kremlin’s banks like you’d go after a terrorist’s and question the legitimacy of Russian passports. Like I posted, Estonians think they are all mafia. But, there's little in the Estonian press about feeling threatened and my daily contact with Estonians, ethnic Russians and even three Ukrainians living here doesn't give me any indication of feeling threatened. Got to wonder who's providing all the hype if it's not coming from this country.

Similarly, I hang out with a lot of Finns. Law Enforcement, EOD and military. They doubt Russia wants another Winter War with Finns and choose to drink instead.

Perhaps perceived, but who perceived it ? The 10 USA fighters here are going to convince Putin of exactly what ? A military exercise on his border.

David---there are photos in the article that match the tank rail shipping link you had yesterday---the tanks were being loaded and shipped to the Crimea---the core question is now WHY? Caption states T72s but they really look like 80/90s ---one needs to see the roller wheel skirts in order to have a clean ID--besides the 72s are a far older model and virtually out of service since the 80/90s came in---they really were mostly for export anyway--and the Ukrainians have the 80s as well---notice the photos are at angles in order to make identification harder for the OSINT analyst.

I don't see anything significant in those media pics other than a lack of location and date, regardless of which models they are. Immediately following the incursion with Georgia, we determined that most of what Russia used as both equipment and ordnance was stone age. What a great way to get rid of the garbage ! Not to mention all their aerial bombardment missed targets and hit abandoned airfields.

Much like I learned at Bowling in the early 80s with a Canon AE-1, one uses angles effectively in photography. IMO, what you see in the photos is known as wide-angle distortion.

I think you gave the CNN dude way too much credit for those happy snaps !

OUTLAW 09

04-02-2014, 03:44 PM

Stan---believe me when I say the Russian Army of 2014 is definitely not the Russian Army of even 2008.

It is modern, well equipped, well built around modern communications/drones/intelligence and well schooled in our own decision making processes. The officers at the MAJ to COL ranges are well educated and they have a professional NCO corp much as we do.

Reference the tanks--highly important as it indicates they are moving heavy units for a reason-and heavy units have a meaning even in Russian doctrine of 2014--the Russian Army has no T72s as they were not the greatest of tanks even in the 80s--they have multiple versions of the T80s and 90s--regardless of what US Army tankers say about the Abrams---the T90 matches it and is even better than the Abrams especially for Europe.

In the world of international relations using public media to get one's message across is common-- has been common in the past and will be common in the coming years---when one side see's multiple media reports and they do monitor the media ---the stories get reported\straight to Putin who is use of OSINT from his KGB days. NATO/US/EU want Putin to fully understand what they are saying.

By the way the messaging got across and this afternoon via Interfax several high level Russian elites are "complaining" about NATO actions/comments in eastern Europe---quote "not helpful" unquote.

By the way check the Interfax press release on my next comment---if in fact the statement in the last sentence is correct and I am not doubting that it is not correct---Putin will roll in the next week or so. sometimes when Russian do a press release they do not have the best interpreters---so even the sentence was a bad translation attempt or it is the truth that slipped out during the interview.

CBCalif

04-02-2014, 05:11 PM

Have you read Dave Maxwell's assessment of Russia's operational methodology in their movement west -- so to speak, appearing in "War on the Rocks" today? Or, in his words ""how Russia has used all of its elements of national power to achieve its objectives." It is rather (IMHO) rather interesting and well written.

And (at least in my opinion) you are quite correct, the Russian Army of today appears vastly improved over the organization the world watched roll into Georgia. What a difference! Russia has clearly invested in its Army.

(Added by Moderator) Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/04/taking-a-spoon-to-a-gunfight/

Stan

04-02-2014, 05:36 PM

Stan---believe me when I say the Russian Army of 2014 is definitely not the Russian Army of even 2008.

Outlaw, links if you please knowing I live right across the border and have been there countless times to include the countries concerned herein.

And (at least in my opinion) you are quite correct, the Russian Army of today appears vastly improved over the organization the world watched roll into Georgia. What a difference! Russia has clearly invested in its Army.

Welcome aboard !

Appears ?

Generally speaking, we back up our Sierra with links or real life scenarios please. David has done that this time.

Regards, Stan

EDIT:

CBCalif,
Please define for me in military terms what this means:

Russia has clearly invested in its Army

davidbfpo

04-02-2014, 06:07 PM

Stan

04-02-2014, 06:28 PM

Just a thought on the railway movement of Russian heavy armour. Could it be moving armour into the Crimea? Which would give the currently lightly equipped forces heavy armour to cross into the Ukraine proper.

A "dash" to Odessa and beyond is made easier. Curious isn't it that such a horsed cavalry adjective lives on with tanks.

David,
This a very poor open source for info, but has some decent video.

VIDEO: Russia Invades Crimea with Military Freight Trains (http://intercepts.defensenews.com/2014/03/video-russia-invades-crimea-with-military-freight-trains/)

Russia’s military progression into Crimea has been heavily dependent on rail lines in the southeastern part of the peninsula.

Residents in those areas have captured video of trains loaded with Russian equipment moving west toward Simferopol, the Crimean capital .

EDIT:

Would like to clarify that post Soviet heavy armor is rather limited in description to just two tanks. The videos and pics contain all sorts of equipment, but none actually contain any heavy armor under current international descriptions. How heavy is heavy ?

OUTLAW 09

04-02-2014, 07:24 PM

Stan--the video links are far more interesting than you assume they are---the third video was the most interesting as it was a heavy rocket launcher Regt on the move in a traditional travel formation I have not seen since the 80s.

A complete Regiment on the go to catch is a great opportunity to actually do a headcount, watch the actual rail movement configuration and see the support vehicles and reloader vehicles. There has been some open source comments that for this particular launcher there are various calibers that can be simply loaded onto the launcher much like we reload a Patriot missile battery---meaning one launcher can fire different calibers as needed by the field force.

The emphasis is on the term "heavy". This type of equipment is what the Russians have fielded since 2008 and it is just the tip of the modernization they have gone through.

Tanks---heavy defines the T80s and T90s or what is usually called a "main battle tank".

Nomenclature is as follows:

The BM-30 Smerch (Tornado) or 9A52 is a Soviet heavy multiple rocket launcher. The system is designed to defeat personnel, armored, and soft-skinned targets in concentration areas, artillery.

If this is being seen via OSINT then I now fully understand Breedlove's concern as he is seeing other Int. information.

This type of equipment headed for a border region resets us back to the Cold War days of Soviet maneuvers in the GDR where we would watch this type of equipment literally "like a hawk" in order to confirm or deny "intent"

IMO Breedlove as determined "intent" and the open question he now has is just the "when".

When your intent is to make a dash to the Odessa port and on to Moldavia it is usually led by mech infantry covered by main battle tanks with the Smerch providing fire cover. The first video indicated they standard towed heavy artillery in the BN strength.

In reality if this is just a portion caught on the move then in fact IMO the Russians have positioned enough man/firepower on the southern border of the Ukraine that can support troops crossing over from the east in a common drive to Odessa and Moldavia.

Stan

04-02-2014, 07:47 PM

Stan--the video links are far more interesting than you assume they are---the third video was the most interesting as it was a heavy rocket launcher Regt on the move in a traditional travel formation I have not seen since the 80s.

Outlaw,
Glad you liked the links. Ironic, but I assume you will eventually do the same after repeatedly asking for the same.

My analyst from the 80’s would have responded with “of no intelligence value” and for very good reasons. Where and when are not in the videos.

A copy of Janes would have answered most of these questions.

We are throwing around the term heavy armor and it seems most don’t understand that term, but thanks for the nomenclature regarding rocket launchers.

I’d be concerned too if a USAF Flag is watching rail video with no known location or date, from a home video, and then concluding “very, very, very" in an open press statement to the world.

CBCalif

04-02-2014, 07:50 PM

Stan

04-02-2014, 08:05 PM

Stan: I'm still trying to figure out how to manuever through here, hopefully this works.

If one recalls the countless video reporting showing the Russian forces invading Georgia, while they succeeded, they were often slovenly looking lot with vehicles that seemed to be both obsolete and in desperate need of maintenance. Their drivers appeared to be new at the game. See e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMR8kAhyfo (//www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMR8kAhyfo")
titled Russia Invades Georgia, or one of the many other videos one can link to from there.

The see . http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/crimea-offers-showcase-for-russias-rebooted-military.html?_r=0 (//www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/crimea-offers-showcase-for-russias-rebooted-military.html?_r=0")
and http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/01/russia-troops-ukraine-border-crimea-video.

Observe the Russian military that moved into the Crimea and the forces conducting operations near the border with the Ukraine. In a phrase, what a deference! That change over the past 6 years takes substantial investment in training time, equipment acquisition, etc. Hopefully this explains my intended meaning of “investment” in their Army.

CBCalif,
Thanks for the links and your views !
You need a bit of work with the last two links, but I found them and get your point.

Yes, the Russian troops in Georgia were defined as regular Army soldiers and the troops in Crimea are being defined as special forces.

The BBC in Georgia and the news feeds from Crimea are also like night and day.

We only get to see what they want, and the angle they want. Putin would like us to believe him when he says the Russian Army is better equipped and ready than ever before. He would also like us to believe that Russian freed Europe from oppression and the Nazis without casting light on what his freedom fighters did for the next 50 years here.

Smoke and mirrors !

Regards, Stan

carl

04-02-2014, 08:13 PM

Outlaw & Stan and anybody else:

I assume that if they choose to do so Russian forces will be able to move anywhere they please in the Ukraine and regular Ukrainian force won't be able to stop them or even slow them down much, at least not without NATO keeping Russian air out of the sky.

My question is will they be able to maintain supply lines after they get to where they are going? That is why I keep bringing up ATGMs and MANPADS. Our real problem over the past 13 years hasn't been going where we wanted, it was running supplies to where we went. During that whole time our opponents didn't have good missile systems to shoot at us. I think we would have had huge trouble if they had.

So, do the Ukrainians have goodly numbers of those kinds of systems? If they don't, do you think they can get them in sufficient numbers? And most importantly, how likely do you think the Ukrainians are to attack and harass those supply lines?

Dayuhan

04-02-2014, 10:26 PM

Soon, Buyers Will Use Gas as a Weapon
By Yulia Latynina
Apr. 01 2014 20:03
Last edited 20:04

Taken from The Moscow Times today:

Three weeks ago, just as Russia was in the early stages of annexing Crimea, I wrote in this space that the most strategic move the West could take against President Vladimir Putin would be to help lower world oil and gas prices. On Wednesday, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that Washington was prepared to supply gas to Europe in place of Russia.

People keep saying this, but the reality is that Washington isn't sending gas to anyone any time soon. There are no functioning LNG export terminals. One is due for completion in 2015 or 2016, another in 2018, but both have already committed mush of their output to long term contracts with Asian buyers.

04-03-2014, 12:24 AM

To wm/Dayuhan----in all your comments made on a series of my comments concerning Russian nationalism and the intentions of Putin going forward and on military stationing by Russian forces---read this and tell me then that NATO is not only signaling they "see" now the Russian "intent" and they fully "understand the intent" and are issuing via the media that they are in the midst of responding to the threat which they now view as indeed a threat to the Ukraine, the Baltics, Romanian and Finland and lastly Poland.
Let's look at the quotation from the Daily Mail link you posted

From Mail Online article from today:

Russia has amassed all the forces it needs on Ukraine's border to carry out an 'incursion' into the country and it could achieve its objective in three to five days, NATO's top military commander said on Wednesday.
Calling the situation 'incredibly concerning', NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, said NATO had spotted signs of movement by a very small part of the Russian force overnight, but had no indication that it was returning to barracks.

NATO military chiefs are concerned that the Russian force on the Ukrainian border, which they estimate stands at 40,000 soldiers, could pose a threat to eastern and southern Ukraine.
'This is a very large and very capable and very ready force,' Breedlove said in an interview with Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.
The Russian force has aircraft and helicopter support as well as field hospitals and electronic warfare capabilities.
'The entire suite that would be required to successfully have an incursion into Ukraine should the decision be made,' Breedlove said.
'We think it is ready to go and we think it could accomplish its objectives in between three and five days if directed to make the actions.'

He said Russia could have several potential objectives, including an incursion into southern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, pushing beyond Crimea to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa or even threatening to connect to Transdniestria, the mainly Russian-speaking, separatist region of Moldova that lies to the west of Ukraine.
Russia also has forces to the north and northeast of Ukraine that could enter eastern Ukraine if Moscow ordered them to do so, Breedlove said.
Any such actions would have far-reaching implications for NATO, a military alliance of 28 nations that has been the core of European defence for more than 60 years.
'We are going to have to look at how our alliance now is prepared for a different paradigm, a different rule set... we will need to rethink our force posture, our force positioning, our force provisioning, readiness, etc,' Breedlove said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2595029/Russia-forces-needs-Ukraines-borders-carry-invasion-three-days-warns-NATO-general.html#ixzz2xj6pwkX7

A significant word to focus on in the commentary is "could". Had the General said "will" then you might have something more to support your asssertions about NATO seeing the Russians' intent.

Otherwise, this article recaps what is pretty much standard intel briefing stuff. It identifies capabilities (the "could") but does not specify the likely course of action (the missing "will") that the Russian forces under discussion will actually take. Nowhere does he say that it (the Russian forces) will actually go. In the Cold War days of I&W, we used to talk about ambiguous and unambiguous warning. Unambiguous warning was when it got time to be doing recalls and uploading for real. We had ambiguous warnings all the time, but I do not remember EUCOM/USAREUR ever doing things like NEO (non-combatant evacuation operations) because of such ambiguous warnings. A Soviet GSFG unit or two deploying unexpectedly to the LHTA (Leitzlinger Heide Training Area) would not be much cause for concern, even though it was probably true that a surprise 3rd SA assault from the LHTA could (there's that word again :)) easily have made the Rhine in 2-3 days (my opinion--much disagreed to by others in the community back then).

04-03-2014, 12:46 AM

Just a thought on the railway movement of Russian heavy armour. Could it be moving armour into the Crimea? Which would give the currently lightly equipped forces heavy armour to cross into the Ukraine proper.

A "dash" to Odessa and beyond is made easier. Curious isn't it that such a horsed cavalry adjective lives on with tanks.

In the video links I have seen, I have not seen any heavy armor--looked to me like tracked armored personnel carriers --BMP 3 perhaps--not tanks. The still photos of rail-loading tanks posted here are so limited in terms of geo-location and time/date data as to be virtually useless for making any appropriate intelligence assessments.

Nonetheless, I think a dash to Odessa and beyond would be more "doable" using wheeled APCs (BTRs in Russian parlance) rather than tracked vehicles--they would not tear up road ways as badly as tracked vehicles might and tend to be less maintenance intensive.

I am pretty sure that railway movement of tanks in Crimea would have to be preceded by ferry operations across the Kerch Straits or offloading from ships landing in Sebastopol, unless the Russians are relocating Ukrainian military equipment "liberated" with Crimea.

Does anyone have insight into what Ukraine had in the way of ground combat equipment in the Crimea?

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 06:11 AM

Stan---just a side comment--first of all if your analyst had not taken anything away from the videos would have astounded me for the following reasons.

OSINT is used a lot of the time to 1) tip and or 2) confirm or deny.

These videos did a number of things;
1. deny or confirm typical movement formations ie in entire BN or REGT formations
2. how are the rail movements designed and what accompanies them
3. types of the units and equipment head counts---does it match held data or varies from held data especially personnel headcounts when one knows how many fit into the accompanying personnel rail cars
4. and more especially it confirmed an open source article from a security advisor to Putin from 2000-2005 indicating that the Russian Army had long term plans for an invasion of the Crimea and simply were putting them into action---
5. thus one could see an actual planned campaign unfold
6. the op se used both in the loading and movement especially totally unmarked vehicles and equipment is new for the Russians and their comms op sec evidently from open source reports caught even the NSA off guard as they moved in silence and using couriers

So yes videos do have a role even if causally taken.

By the way the links indicated approx. locations and dates which again can be used to deny or confirm other int's information.

wm indiated that a dash would need lighter APCs-- not so necessary as the Russian doctrine sees a new evolution towards combined arms maneuver with main battle tanks still taking key bridges and intersections.

The weather has been great and the countryside is dry and capable of carrying free maneuvering main battle tanks and other heavy equipment so one does not need roads and when using CAM weather plays a key role.

Stan

04-03-2014, 08:27 AM

Stan---just a side comment--first of all if your analyst had not taken anything away from the videos would have astounded me for the following reasons.

OSINT is used a lot of the time to 1) tip and or 2) confirm or deny.

Outlaw,
As you so well noted, some analysts are capable of a single language and have barely, if ever, served in the field. However, they know what to expect from field reporters.

So, I submit a video with this:

The next video, also posted on March 15, was supposedly shot about 50 miles west of Kerch in the village of Lenine.

I had better be able to confirm or deny all the things you have listed, and much much more. Or, better not to draft the IIR at all.
We have a DATT and ARMA there. They should be doing that sneaky stuff so that some 4 star doesn't look like (omitted) and quantify with words like very, very, very. (Deep Sigh)

So yes videos do have a role even if causally taken.

By the way the links indicated approx. locations and dates which again can be used to deny or confirm other int's information.

"Approximately and supposedly" or even the word "could" are not words I would have used in my IIRs. My happy snaps and reports on Georgia regarding Russian ordnance and armor did not include vague terms nor references.

wm indiated that a dash would need lighter APCs-- not so necessary as the Russian doctrine sees a new evolution towards combined arms maneuver with main battle tanks still taking key bridges and intersections.

The weather has been great and the countryside is dry and capable of carrying free maneuvering main battle tanks and other heavy equipment so one does not need roads and when using CAM weather plays a key role.

I can't comment on WM's post, but I can tell you what Russian tanks are doing in Estonia's forests, bogs and mires: rusting and stuck in the mud :D

davidbfpo

04-03-2014, 09:41 AM

Cited in part:
In the video links I have seen, I have not seen any heavy armor--looked to me like tracked armored personnel carriers --BMP 3 perhaps--not tanks. The still photos of rail-loading tanks posted here are so limited in terms of geo-location and time/date data as to be virtually useless for making any appropriate intelligence assessments.

WM and others,

Although very short this clip does have a Russian (deputy) defence minister, at a railway yard and some heavy armour. I note he too refers to returning Ukrainian equipment:http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/01/russia-troops-ukraine-border-crimea-video

Stan

04-03-2014, 11:22 AM

Cited in part:

WM and others,

Although very short this clip does have a Russian (deputy) defence minister, at a railway yard and some heavy armour. I note he too refers to returning Ukrainian equipment:http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/01/russia-troops-ukraine-border-crimea-video

David,
Not all the tanks are heavy armor and not so easy to assume the rail movement was from the purported exercise location.

Was this a Guardian reporter or a feed he scarfed up and wrote about ?

davidbfpo

04-03-2014, 12:08 PM

David,
Not all the tanks are heavy armor and not so easy to assume the rail movement was from the purported exercise location.

Was this a Guardian reporter or a feed he scarfed up and wrote about ?

Stan,

At least three photos and a tiny film clip appear to be from the same location. A railway yard, with overhead electric wires spanning some of the tracks. Plus an official statement by the (deputy) Russian defence minister, who talks about Ukrainian kit being moved out and Russian moved in.

My conclusion is that it is a feed written up, rather badly and confusing. Just as I expect the minister wanted.

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 12:49 PM

David/Stan ---if in fact the Russians were sending heavy vehicles and or any Ukrainian military equipment back to the Ukraine would have anticipated it being reported by the Ukrainians as a news worthy event---but nothing yet.

Stan---When writing HUMINT reports one tends to see the comments, should, could, approximately often as it is with OSINT---especially when one can place such comments in the Field Comments section.

Reference analysts---USAREUR had only two Russian analysts a GS14 who spoke great Russian and a defense contractor---the 14 was returned to the US early 2013 and the contractor was let go---was not much better for EUCOM.

The reasons given for shutting down Russian analyst positions---peace time no further need.

The 66th MIG still has some but I am guessing it is just as weak as the need for Russian language classes at the Defense Language Institute was also being ramped downward.after 2000 in favor of Arabic.

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 01:03 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 01:10 PM

Sorry for no link as a friend passed this article to me taken from todays' Moscow Times referencing the new Putin Doctrine a term which I have used from the very beginning of the Crimea issue---I have noticed that the US is tending to shy away from using the term but it is a formulated doctrine and it drives Putin and his actions.

Firmly believe that the WH needs to fully understand this doctrine as it is not going away any time soon. Remember when reading it is in the language often used by Putin--- especially sprinkled inside his Duma speech in the same tone and word usage.

Taken from an article titled The New Putin Doctrine from today's Moscow Times

"The annexation of Crimea highlights not only a sharp change in Russian foreign policy, but also the emergence of a new Putin Doctrine. President Vladimir Putin's successful Crimean land grab might signal the start of a broader trend in which Moscow will annex other regions.

In his historic speech in the Kremlin on March 18, Putin formulated the seven main points of his new doctrine.

Under Putin, Russia has become a powerful country once again and now has the right to flaunt its own double standards, just like the U.S.

1. Russia no longer views the West as a credible partner. He believes that the West dismissed his legitimate complaints against U.S. unilateralism and double standards that he articulated in his 2007 Munich speech. Despite claims that the Cold War has ended, the West continues to pursue a Cold War-like containment policy against Russia, Putin says.

In reality, the West's policy has been to lie to Russia, make decisions behind its back and to try to weaken the country's influence on the global arena. "Russia feels that it has been not just robbed, but plundered," Putin said in his March 18 speech. From now on, Russia will be forced to base its actions on this harsh reality.

2. Russia no longer considers itself part of European — much less Euro-Atlantic — civilization. Russia is a democracy, but of a special type. The country has rejected communist and "pseudo-#democratic" dogmas. If more than 90 percent of Russians support the annexation of Crimea, it means the move had a strong backing and legitimacy based on the fundamental democratic principal of vox populi.

At the same time, however, Russia does not believe in the universal value of Western-style democracy and human rights, although it will remain — at least for time being — a member of the Council of Europe.

3. International law is no longer a system of rules or set of reference points. Putin argues that international law has been reduced to a menu of options from which every powerful state is free to choose whatever suits its interests. To put down the uprising in Chechnya, for example, Moscow cited the international principle of upholding territorial integrity. But in annexing Crimea, it cited the fundamental right to self-determination.

This is a classical double standard, something Russia has always loved criticizing the U.S. for. But under Putin, Russia is now a powerful country and thus has the right to flaunt its own double standards, just like the U.S., and create its own "sovereign democracy." Meanwhile, a weak Ukraine does not have these rights and privileges.

4. The new Putin Doctrine applies to the entire territory of the former Soviet Union. Putin justifies the right to oversee this expanse by relying on a vague notion of "Russia's historical heritage" and the need to ensure the country's security in its rightful sphere of influence. As it turns out, from now on the sovereignty of the former Soviet republics will depend on how the Kremlin views its strategic interests. The only exceptions are the three former Baltic republics, which are NATO members.

Moscow has drawn its own red line: Russia will take action if any of the former Soviet republics attempt to join NATO or the European Union or agree to host Western military bases on their territory. The Kremlin has a couple of tools to undermine any country that shifts too far to the West. It reserves the right to send in troops, install a government loyal to Moscow and hold a referendum, as it did in Crimea.

The new Putin Doctrine tacitly invites all of the world's powerful states to revise the rules of the game. In his 2012 article titled "Russia Focuses," Putin wrote that Russia would not just follow, but also shape the rules of the game in the world. We are now seeing that strategy applied in practice.

5. The main Westphalian principle upholding state sovereignty and territorial integrity now applies only to the strongest countries that protect their borders with their own armies or the armies of military blocs such as NATO or the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The sovereignty and integrity of weak and especially failed states becomes open game for powerful states and their blocs. States now fall into two categories: the big leagues, with security and other guarantees for its members, and the little leagues, with far fewer guarantees.

According to this logic, if any powerful and strong-willed country believes that its military, strategic, economic or political interests are at risk, it is free to intervene in the internal affairs of weaker countries — and even seize parts of their territory.

6. International organizations such as the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe now play a greatly diminished role. It is only necessary to adhere to their rules and frameworks as long as they do not compromise a powerful country's ability to defend its national interests. If they do, strong states should simply ignore these organizations. This is how the U.S. and its allies behaved when they bypassed the UN Security Council to conduct several military operations over the past 20 years.

The new Putin Doctrine is based on a fundamentally new balance of power in the world. The West's combined military and economic influence has fallen dramatically and continues to decline. At the same time, Asia, South America and Africa are gaining in influence, and the major non-Western member states of BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and others would like to see new rules of the game devised so that they can also advance their interests.

This new playing field for international affairs will make the world dangerously volatile and increase the risks for more military conflicts. But the problem is that each country believes it will come out the winner in this global wrestling match, while there are few rules, regulations or umpires to help limit the losses and number of innocent victims.

Stan

04-03-2014, 02:20 PM

The link is here as are a number of the author's articles.

Articles by Vladimir Ryzhkov (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/authors/vladimir-ryzhkov/174272.html)

Stan

04-03-2014, 02:23 PM

Stan---When writing HUMINT reports one tends to see the comments, should, could, approximately often as it is with OSINT---especially when one can place such comments in the Field Comments section.

Outlaw,
Good thing you didn't work for Clarendon with MG Leide as your rater :o

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 05:25 PM

Stan---then one does not understand the DIAM allowing field comments which is what National has always wanted.

National has always wanted the dialogue between the Collector and Analyst---problem is very few fully understand that even today.

Once had a report in which the biographic data from six KIA jihadi's was given-with burial points--a junior SP4 analyst from Division kicked the IIR back with the statement we do not collect on dead people.

Still rammed the report through.

In today's world not many even understand the term Initiative Reporting also out of the DIAM.

National response---great report we had been wondering where they were.

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 05:35 PM

Russia has been demanding that the Ukraine investigate the Maidan killings---has been at the center of a repeated number of demands by Putin and his FM.

Looks like they might not like the answers provided today by Ukraine---as well as the names of FSB agents and documents tying the killings straight to the former president.

There were documents released today as well indicating that the entire national bank gold reserves and foreign currency reserves were flown out by copter on 20/21Feb.

Wonder where?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/world.html

JMA

04-03-2014, 05:57 PM

Moscow has drawn its own red line: Russia will take action if any of the former Soviet republics attempt to join NATO or the European Union or agree to host Western military bases on their territory. The Kremlin has a couple of tools to undermine any country that shifts too far to the West. It reserves the right to send in troops, install a government loyal to Moscow and hold a referendum, as it did in Crimea.

And no one saw this coming?

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 06:05 PM

Interesting Russian FM response to the Ukrainian charges of Berkat Security and FSB being involved in the killing of Maidan demonstrators.

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=494377

Stan

04-03-2014, 06:12 PM

And no one saw this coming?

Hey Mark !

Before one even remotely reads this stuff, one should check the author's background, and, some of his works.

He is widely known to be in the mafia. The only way to explain why he is still alive while spouting about the Putin regime.

Looks great on paper, and I reckon, some may consider it intellect :rolleyes:

Stan

04-03-2014, 06:18 PM

Stan---then one does not understand the DIAM allowing field comments which is what National has always wanted.

Outlaw,
The DIAM series was created out of just about any joint manual known to soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.

Other than on your first day of your first tour abroad, nobody reads that Bravo Sierra save the IG when he comes a visiting (because his checklist is also in there).

Let's get back to the Ukraine and leave the intel Sierra in left field.

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 06:27 PM

Outlaw,
The DIAM series was created out of just about any joint manual known to soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.

Other than on your first day of your first tour abroad, nobody reads that Bravo Sierra save the IG when he comes a visiting (because his checklist is also in there).

Let's get back to the Ukraine and leave the intel Sierra in left field.

Stan --and now you fully understand the intel failures in Iraq and AFG as well the WHY did not EUCOM see this coming prior to Russian troops physically moving.

By the way the DAIM was the "bible" for key collectors in Berlin during the entire length of the Cold War---would not degrade it to simply only for the IG---have seen a number of individuals scrape by actual jail for having violated it and have seen some sent to jail for violations.

It is normal in this world of interconnected social media and mass media that somewhere somehow an article indicating Russian troop buildups would have cropped up.

Or did you read anywhere any response from the US military just prior to the Russian moves into the Crimea---I did not see anything.

If anything that is the lessons learned out of the Crimea for the US military---why was evidently nothing seen, where were the analysts who speak Russian and where was the National level when drones cannot be used as has been the current practice since 9/11 as we chased jihadi's worldwide?

Currently even the Army training scenarios are built on DATE where the most they see is a near peer competitor---not one that is an equal such as the current Russian Army---where we cannot even get a heavy brigade into Europe as they have all been sent home and it would take months to get one back.

JMA

04-03-2014, 06:35 PM

davidbfpo

04-03-2014, 06:57 PM

Earlier in this thread I posted a comment by General Tim Flynn, DIA, that a strategic warning had been provided for the Crimean action, to the politicians.

Located the post (No.275), three weeks ago.

I noted on Twitter a report that General Michael Flynn had stated there was strategic warning, oddly few have noted this. From his interview with NPR. It starts with:
I think for easily seven to ten days leading up to the Russian troops as we see them now in Crimea, we were providing very solid reporting on what I would describe as just strategic warning, where we move from one level of sort of a condition of warning, which I would just describe for the audience as sort of moderate, to one where we believe things are imminent. And we did that about a week prior to the events that unfolded really last Friday

Shortly afterwards:
Well, I mean obviously the things that we' re watching in the Crimea, some of the naval activities, you know, up around the key bases — we saw, you know, we see some of what has been referred to as an exercise inside of Russia and we are paying very close attention to any additional activities of some of their key military forces that they do have, particularly in the southern military district that is in that region that we are all concerned about right now. So — there is a lot of activity. What we are trying to pay attention to is: are they being true to their word about it's an exercise versus something else

Stan

04-03-2014, 07:34 PM

Stan --and now you fully understand the intel failures in Iraq and AFG as well the WHY did not EUCOM see this coming prior to Russian troops physically moving.

Outlaw,
I’ve worked under EUCOM since 84 when they had Africa. EUCOM was not some intel dump point and were barely kept in the loop. You already knew that though ! EUCOM and DC didn’t see the Rwandan genocide coming either. Yet, we reported on it and visited that country as part of our regional AOR.

You have this assumption that somewhere on Patch was a think tank with nothing else to do. Seriously dude ?

Let us not confuse National as you term it with EUCOM.

By the way the DAIM was the "bible" for key collectors in Berlin during the entire length of the Cold War---would not degrade it to simply only for the IG---have seen a number of individuals scrape by actual jail for having violated it and have seen some sent to jail for violations.

I sadly had to help with the thousandth rendition of the DIAM series. I also had the distinct pleasure of shredding all to include the unclas series during our zero burn in 91. That was the best use of a shredder I had ever seen.

It is normal in this world of interconnected social media and mass media that somewhere somehow an article indicating Russian troop buildups would have cropped up.

Or did you read anywhere any response from the US military just prior to the Russian moves into the Crimea---I did not see anything.

You love osint and I shy away from it. We did the same job, but on different continents under very different conditions. I'm hands on and into the culture. That serves me well and I tend to dismiss BS in the papers. African press does what the dictator says to do, or you die. Not too far off the mark with Russian press. They tend to do a lot of dying :cool:

Fact is, all three Baltic States warned of this coming. But, crying wolf too many times and the stories lost all credibility.

If anything that is the lessons learned out of the Crimea for the US military---why was evidently nothing seen, where were the analysts who speak Russian and where was the National level when drones cannot be used as has been the current practice since 9/11 as we chased jihadi's worldwide?

Because the Russians did not trash the WTC. Had they done that, it would be a totally different thread herein. The US Military are unfortunately guided by the CINC (the civilian at the White House). You like blaming the US Military ?
I've lived here for 20 years, and of the 4 languages I do speak, I can hardly speak a full sentence in Russian. You don't need it and may be better off without it when working sources. This is not East Germany and we are no longer in the 1980s.

Currently even the Army training scenarios are built on DATE where the most they see is a near peer competitor---not one that is an equal such as the current Russian Army---where we cannot even get a heavy brigade into Europe as they have all been sent home and it would take months to get one back.

The day may come when the Europeans will welcome us back to bases and not charge us an arm and leg to stay there in their humble defense. Until that day comes, you can stop spending my federal taxes on a whim please.

I could give a hoot. What's the deal with the US Military being responsible.

For that matter, why didn't the 170,000 Russian language speakers in Europe not see this Sierra coming and warn the Europeans of Armageddon ?

Stan

04-03-2014, 07:40 PM

Stan,

From out here in the colonies it was clear to even the most casual observers that Russia was morphing into a criminal state and starting to misuse patriotism to distract the increasingly enslaved population.

McCain and Romney saw a Russian military threat coming while Obama /Biden laughed it off saying the Cold War has been over for 20 years.

Now the question to be asked is did the CIA see this coming and warn the Obama administration?

Mark,
Those exotic civilians spend an enormous amount of time drafting reports that most of us refuse to read (not enough time in the day). They didn't report on a Zairian parachute battalion armed and drunk heading for the capital and even denied it when it happened.

The very same told Tom and I the genocide would last 2 weeks tops :D

What a load of Sierra. Now that's intel at it's finest hour :rolleyes:

We are no longer in an election year, our soldiers are coming home, and not a single normal American will allow the current administration to once again do something that has little to do with us.

I did not vote for Clinton and did not vote for Obama. Don't blame me for this Sierra :D:D

AmericanPride

04-03-2014, 07:49 PM

And no one saw this coming?

This has been raised multiple times since at least 2008 when Moscow used the same strategem in Georgia as it did recently with Crimea. The Russian National Security Strategy and a similar foreign ministry document (both of which I cited earlier in this thread) also discuss Russia's anxieties (insecurities?) about its neighbors, NATO expansion, etc. The media is peppered with comments from senior Russian officials over the years about these subjects. But acknowledging Russia's stated interests, whatever their merit, has not been good politics on the Hill for many years now.

OUTLAW 09

04-03-2014, 07:59 PM

Outlaw,
I’ve worked under EUCOM since 84 when they had Africa. EUCOM was not some intel dump point and were barely kept in the loop. You already knew that though ! EUCOM and DC didn’t see the Rwandan genocide coming either. Yet, we reported on it and visited that country as part of our regional AOR.

You have this assumption that somewhere on Patch was a think tank with nothing else to do. Seriously dude ?

Let us not confuse National as you term it with EUCOM.

I sadly had to help with the thousandth rendition of the DIAM series. I also had the distinct pleasure of shredding all to include the unclas series during our zero burn in 91. That was the best use of a shredder I had ever seen.

You love osint and I shy away from it. We did the same job, but on different continents under very different conditions. I'm hands on and into the culture. That serves me well and I tend to dismiss BS in the papers. African press does what the dictator says to do, or you die. Not too far off the mark with Russian press. They tend to do a lot of dying :cool:

Fact is, all three Baltic States warned of this coming. But, crying wolf too many times and the stories lost all credibility.

Because the Russians did not trash the WTC. Had they done that, it would be a totally different thread herein. The US Military are unfortunately guided by the CINC (the civilian at the White House). You like blaming the US Military ?
I've lived here for 20 years, and of the 4 languages I do speak, I can hardly speak a full sentence in Russian. You don't need it and may be better off without it when working sources. This is not East Germany and we are no longer in the 1980s.

The day may come when the Europeans will welcome us back to bases and not charge us an arm and leg to stay there in their humble defense. Until that day comes, you can stop spending my federal taxes on a whim please.

I could give a hoot. What's the deal with the US Military being responsible.

For that matter, why didn't the 170,000 Russian language speakers in Europe not see this Sierra coming and warn the Europeans of Armageddon ?

Stan---a number of things---then why do we have military intelligence in a military that appears to not be able to see the simple movement of a tank. Simply save the money and let national do it---- would assist in the reduction of the DoD budget and save money by closing down Ft. H.

Some of us have worked the OSINT/HUMINT far longer and believe that it can in fact can tell one what is behind the door when the satellite cannot even find the bunker nor see the door. So you are right why did not the 170K speakers say something-or better yet why did not HUMINT pick it up--an interesting question.

The problem is that after 9/11 everything went the technical routes and drones have basically pushed OSINT and HUMINT to the side as it was not sexy enough.

Still stand by the statement EUCOM should have seen this coming and if you read the link below they are indicating the same thing.

You will see that the article also confirms a number of things I pointed out in the videos you linked to and is confirmed by my working with Russian staff officers in AV12 and AV13 where we built a unified command structure when no one thought it possible least of all USAREUR/EUCOM. And where we saw this modernization up close and personal.

And by the way no one was interested in reporting exactly what we were seeing/hearing---all they were interested in was which one is the hidden GRU intel officer. Says a lot about our current military intelligence skill sets--thus the comment if they cannot see a tank then eliminate them and turn it over to national but hey even national is not that good if you saw them in action in Iraq.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0403/Russia-debuts-new-sleek-force-in-Crimea-rattling-NATO

The summation of the article is interesting --if in fact Russia has a professional Army of say 100K that can move on a dime with limited planning what does it say about the Trillions we have spent since 9/11 does it not?

Or for that matter then the Baltics should simply sign Russian stationing rights as NATO really will not act nor should they as the Putin doctrine has validity.

davidbfpo

04-03-2014, 08:12 PM

A European viewpoint by a historian, Brendam Simms, who is now Professor of the History of European International Relations at Cambridge. His stance flows, but his options for action today are - well - unlikely to happen.

Link:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/defend-west

carl

04-03-2014, 08:33 PM

Could you guys go a little lighter on the acronyms? Or maybe provide a glossary? I am getting a little lost.

Stan

04-03-2014, 08:53 PM

Stan---a number of things---then why do we have military intelligence in a military that appears to not be able to see the simple movement of a tank. Simply save the money and let national do it---- would assist in the reduction of the DoD budget and save money by closing down Ft. H.

Outlaw,
You probably know what most of us think about MI…
a contradiction of terms !

We may need a smarter person to answer you. I started life in the early 70s with a whole different set of skills. DIA was my way out of the routine army.

Some of us have worked the OSINT/HUMINT far longer and believe that it can in fact can tell one what is behind the door when the satellite cannot even find the bunker nor see the door. So you are right why did not the 170K speakers say something-or better yet why did not HUMINT pick it up--an interesting question.

You are preaching to the choir. When I joined we didn’t even have a 286 workstation and everything was hands on, out in the bush, etc. Keeping in mind, my MOS was anything but MI.

Still stand by the statement EUCOM should have seen this coming and if you read the link below they are indicating the same thing.

You need to expand on this. I still know and work with a bunch of EUCOM folks in every walk of life. But, I know not a single one responsible for all this so-called intel. When a 4-star starts frothing that tells me the folks in DC porked the pony big time.

Russia-debuts-new-sleek-force-in-Crimea-rattling-NATO (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0403/Russia-debuts-new-sleek-force-in-Crimea-rattling-NATO)

Thanks for the link finally. However, seems a ton of folks don't really believe ! (http://secular-human.deviantart.com/journal/poll/3348385)

Or for that matter then the Baltics should simply sign Russian stationing rights as NATO really will not act nor should they as the Putin doctrine has validity.

The Russians had their shot in 2007, annexation to boot. Yet, they did not. This is not a rogue state. We are in the EU and NATO and whatever some may think Putin is capable of, invading a NATO member’s country has yet to happen. He may have a huge set of cojones, but he is not that stupid.

Stan

04-03-2014, 08:57 PM

Could you guys go a little lighter on the acronyms? Or maybe provide a glossary? I am getting a little lost.

Hey Carl !

Which one are you after :D

Here's a set of great links to keep you up to speed:

Acronym Finder (http://www.acronymfinder.com/)

The Urban Dictionary (http://www.urbandictionary.com/)

Are you back to flying in the bush ?

Regards, Stan

kaur

04-03-2014, 09:11 PM

Shalom, бляха-муха! Two Russian ambassadors are having good conversation.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xJK00daiKD8

Stan

04-03-2014, 09:37 PM

Renault Suspends Combat Vehicle Project with Russia

Sweden has repeatedly warned Russia it may freeze the Atom deal with Uralvagonzavod (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/497457.html), as it supports NATO appeals to suspend military relations with Russia because of the crisis in Ukraine. Nato countries' foreign ministries have claimed that Russia's actions are undermining international norms and the trust between Russia and the bloc.

04-04-2014, 12:31 AM

WM---USAREUR/EUCOM pulled off a NEO in Libya under less than what is being reported on Russian troop movements and then moved straight into a no fly zone environment so yes NEOs can be pulled with far less information available to a Commander---single question in NEOs are US civilians endangered yes or no. Two very different scenarios for NEO, but this thread is not the place to discuss that. other than to say I think you are comparing apples to icebergs and to note that different commanders have very different risk tolerances.

There were a number of analysts who in the early to mid 80s stated a number of times the Russians once started would make the Rhine in under three days.

The bigger question was how would they cross thus
A river crossing is quite easy if you control the bridges over it. I suspect you know the term spetsnaz and the phrase "operational maneuver group" (the original OMG). The Allies used a similar plan during WWII's Operation Market Garden--an airborne insertion to seize both ends of bridges followed by another one of those armored "dashes" to secure the bridgeheads/airheads. Unfortunately Vandeleur's Irish Guards didn't really dash to the rescue of Frost's 2d Bn Paras at Arnhem.

I mention the Market Garden experience as a way of pointing out what may be a flaw in the Russian doctrine you mentioned--using heavy armored forces to seize key road junctions/bridges: terrain, weather, and a some well situated defenders with the right weapons could easily force significant delays to such a course of action.

04-04-2014, 12:51 AM

And no one saw this coming?

Please do not equate Management's failure to act in the way one might wish with a failure on the part of the intelligence community to identify a possible upcoming opportunity for that Management to earn its pay. David and Stan have already pointed out that intel warnings were provided

And this is not to say that Management did not act on those warnings. I doubt that any of us are privy to the various considerations that may have played a part in whatever decisions were made. It may well be the case that Management viewed the occupation as an opportunity to let Russia self-destruct economically. Perhaps the view is that Russian occupation of Crimea is a relatively short term thing, that the Ukraine can get Crimea back once the Russian state goes Tango Uniform again because of its inability to maintain itself in the world economy. Like GM and Detroit, Russia may be on the brink of bankruptcy. But unlike Detroit and GM, no one is likely to bail out Russia.

AmericanPride

04-04-2014, 12:59 AM

I mention the Market Garden experience as a way of pointing out what may be a flaw in the Russian doctrine you mentioned--using heavy armored forces to seize key road junctions/bridges: terrain, weather, and a some well situated defenders with the right weapons could easily force significant delays to such a course of action.

I don't think MG is a valid comparison insofar that the operation relied upon one axis of attack along one route contingent on the capture of a single bridge across a series of rivers. A Russian operation in Ukraine would be contingent on capturing a range of bridges or fording points instead of risking a single point of failure. I'm sure there's plenty of WW2 examples of massed Soviet operations across rivers.

04-04-2014, 04:05 AM

I don't think MG is a valid comparison insofar that the operation relied upon one axis of attack along one route contingent on the capture of a single bridge across a series of rivers. A Russian operation in Ukraine would be contingent on capturing a range of bridges or fording points instead of risking a single point of failure. I'm sure there's plenty of WW2 examples of massed Soviet operations across rivers.

I used Market Garden to point out how easily one could interdict a narrow avenue of approach. So let's take a look at the terrain in southern Ukraine, over which Russian forces would probably have to move if they had Odessa, Trans-Dniestria, or both as an objective. I do not have decent enough maps available to me to do a good terrain analysis, but here is a little something based on the maps I can get from Google.

A Russian "dash" from Crimea would have to pass through either one of 2 chokepoints. To the west is the wider of the 2, north of Armyans'k on Highway M17/E97. Based on the map I am viewing, the strip of land is about 6 miles wide here, but the map also shows a body of water that splits the neck into two smaller avenues of approach, each about 2 miles wide, with the major hardball running in the western one. The eastern exit from Crimea is the route that the E105/M18 takes north of Medvedivka, crossing 2 bridges over what looks like a 500 foot wide channel--depth unknown.

If the force started from somewhere in Russia, say, east of Donetsk, we need to look a little further north. From the mouth of the Dnieper to Dnepropetrovsk, I counted a total of 8 bridges and the Dnieper in this region is, I think, either too wide for most tactical bridging or the banks are not good enough --too soft, too steep, etc., for temporary bridging or the approach routes to the bridging--the map does not tell me this, but the mouth of many large rivers is pretty silty and soft.

JMA

04-04-2014, 02:13 PM

Stan,

Your man Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan saw that the CIA was broken beyond repair back in 1991. Since then nothing has changed.

The Case For Abolishing The CIA (http://carnegieendowment.org/2005/12/20/case-for-abolishing-cia/1yxo)

What to replace it with?

Try this ;)

So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent (http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent)

"I'm just a pharmacist," she said. "Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don't have a professional reputation at stake. And it's this anonymity which actually gives me freedom to make true forecasts."

Here is the killer punch:

In fact, she's so good she's been put on a special team with other superforecasters whose predictions are reportedly 30 percent better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.

You can laugh or you can cry.

Mark,
Those exotic civilians spend an enormous amount of time drafting reports that most of us refuse to read (not enough time in the day). They didn't report on a Zairian parachute battalion armed and drunk heading for the capital and even denied it when it happened.

The very same told Tom and I the genocide would last 2 weeks tops :D

What a load of Sierra. Now that's intel at it's finest hour :rolleyes:

We are no longer in an election year, our soldiers are coming home, and not a single normal American will allow the current administration to once again do something that has little to do with us.

I did not vote for Clinton and did not vote for Obama. Don't blame me for this Sierra

Stan

04-04-2014, 04:40 PM

Hey Mark !

Well, I registered for the Good Judgement Project (http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/) :cool:

If you are going to be paid for guessing, what the heck ! I'm game too :D

The problem with the good Senator is with his proposed replacement agency.

In 1991 and again in 1995, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan introduced bills to abolish the CIA and assign its functions to the State Department, which is what Acheson and his predecessor, George Marshall, had advocated. But Moynihan's proposal was treated as evidence of his eccentricity rather than of his wisdom and never came to a vote.

They were being kind when they said he was eccentric :rolleyes:

Regards, Stan

Firn

04-04-2014, 06:26 PM

As Russia Stumbles, Gazprom Comes Up $910 Billion Short (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-02/gazprom-s-910-billion-gaffe-shows-putin-woes-russia-overnight).

“Gazprom is a champion in value destruction,” Ian Hague, founding partner of New York-based Firebird Management LLC, which manages $1.3 billion of assets including Russian stocks, said in an interview yesterday. “It’s not just Gazprom that failed to achieve its goal of increasing market capitalization. It’s Russia who failed. It failed to create an environment where state-owned companies would function as shareholder-owned entities.”

Indeed, it is not so much about market capitalization but mostly the failure to act in the interest of the non-state shareholder. I just want to get a good enough long term return on my investment, not a glorified pawn of Russia's game.

I still think that the Russian' federal balance sheet is strong enough to hold for a considerable amount of time, but the health of the Russian economy is another story and the long-term damage inflicted is already large. Quite few seem to confuse the ability of a state to balance it's budgets in the short term with the strenght of economy in the long run.

Stan

04-04-2014, 07:26 PM

Firn,
As bad or as bleak as it looks on paper, the Kremlin has never once hiccuped. Where's the cash ?

Sub-Sahara puzzled the brightest of economic officers at the embassy. How far down into the bottom of the barrel can one go ?

The only people that will feel the effects are the poor and middle class. A little Russian oppression is however good. Well, that's what they keep saying about their own.

They may have lost 910 billion on paper, but there are reports that the Kremlin has mafia cash this year to the tune of 2 trillion and counting in just transit goods.

Even as far back as 1991, Viktor Bout was living proof of a healthy Kremlin and sufficient booty for everyone. Sass (Medvedev) may look like an idiot, but his lifestyle is nothing to sneeze at and Vova will make sure Sass is taken care of. After all, the only people that stand to loose their money are the investors and future recipients of all that gas.

Got to wonder what will eventually happen when that gas runs out and we have steel pipes that circle the globe :D

Firn

04-04-2014, 08:48 PM

Firn,
As bad or as bleak as it looks on paper, the Kremlin has never once hiccuped. Where's the cash ?

Sub-Sahara puzzled the brightest of economic officers at the embassy. How far down into the bottom of the barrel can one go ?

The only people that will feel the effects are the poor and middle class. A little Russian oppression is however good. Well, that's what they keep saying about their own.

...

Got to wonder what will eventually happen when that gas runs out and we have steel pipes that circle the globe :D

Nobody knows what will happen in political terms in Russia if a recession or even a depression hits the economy. As you said in some instances you are puzzled just how bad things can go worse and worse. Perhaps Putin might endure all political attacks with the large power he has concentrated over the years and with the 'new' enemy at the gates as a culprit to target.

I don't doubt however that his bunch will gobble up their large share even if the whole cake shrinks, as long as they can...

Dayuhan

04-06-2014, 02:29 AM

A European perspective. This I thought interesting:

During the Soviet era, Ukraine was handed the task of manufacturing missile parts and helicopter engines. Even today, nearly all Russian helicopters fly with engines 'made in Ukraine.'

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-battling-over-an-economic-midget/a-17537970

OUTLAW 09

04-06-2014, 07:03 AM

Dayuhan--you hit something that has become apparent in the Interfax/TASS press releases over the last four days.

There has been an ever increasing drum beat of articles threatening the Ukraine if they leave the CIS and if they back away from their defense industrial contracts/ties with Russia.

It is not just the 700m USD alone in defense contracts just with China that the Ukraine has it is also the cheap grain and meat products Russia has been getting under some every strange trade agreements worked out with the previous president that were extremely favorable towards Russia price wise---which from a Russian consumer point of view who is currently struggling they fear losing.

For a country that boasts that it has deep foreign currency pockets Russia is economically panicking and it is becoming more and more apparent in the press releases if one takes the time to work through them on a daily basis. The press releases info wise are all over the map as they try to create this "image" of "deep pockets" and the sanctions "are not hurting".

Really worth a doctorial thesis on mis/disinformation operations.

OUTLAW 09

04-06-2014, 07:07 AM

An interesting Foreign Policy article read regardless of what one thinks of the writer who is currently at the Tufts Foreign Policy School together with the recent former US NATO Commander. Actually an odd match.

Probably one of the most correct articles written lately on Putin---the writer rarely minces words since his encounter with Russia in 2008 and if anything he fully understands just how the West reacts to/OR does not react to Russia invasions of smaller eastern European countries.

The second paragraph is the most interesting for it's accuracy since Kiev reported yesterday the 5th that they had arrested a provocation team of 15 with a massive amount of weaponry and they were going to attack and hold a key government building in eastern Ukraine---seems like the Ukrainian SBU is now for the time being defending the Ukrainian government/people after initially supporting the former Ukrainian president. This is the second group picked up in massive arrests in the last week.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/04/war_is_coming_ukraine_putin

Stan

04-06-2014, 08:09 AM

An interesting Foreign Policy article read regardless of what one thinks of the writer who is currently at the Tufts Foreign Policy School together with the recent former US NATO Commander. Actually an odd match.

Misha (http://fletcher.tufts.edu/News-and-Media/2013/12/20/President-Mikheil-Saakashvili-of-the-Republic-of-Georgia-to-Join-Fletcher-School-as-Senior-Statesman) is a character and well spoken. At least when we met in 08. He also knows what it means to be on the wrong side of a conflict with Russia. No suprise that he ended up with ADM Stavridis. They were buds and the Admiral bailed him when he needed it most.

Stan

04-06-2014, 08:28 AM

A European perspective. This I thought interesting:

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-battling-over-an-economic-midget/a-17537970

The USG recently granted all Ukrainians free 90-day visas. Something normally reserved for more advanced pro-Western states. Kind of way of telling them we care :rolleyes:

Most of the Ukrainian exports here are wood and charcoal. Ironic, because once processed, are sold to most of Europe with bags made in China :confused:

I gotta love the Russian perspective herein however. Dismiss what doesn't fit and embellish on what does. First it was Poland and all the polish sausage was literally banned from importation. Then the Georgian red wines and spring water, and now, helicopter engines :D

mirhond

04-06-2014, 01:15 PM

@Dayuhan

The closest thing to an ideology behind Putin's moves is Russian nationalism.

No, it is not. There is no "Russian nationalism" in Russian politics because there is no concept of "nation" in Russian politics. The wery term "nation", especially in the form of "Russian nation" is banned in political vocabulary - you'll not find it in any official document ever. There are some vague terms like "Russian people" or "Russians" in use, but it correspond more with ethnicity, not with nationality.
So, there are no ideology behind Putin's moves, only sheer lust for power.

OUTLAW 09

04-06-2014, 03:44 PM

Stan---reference the article where he talks about a government building taken---from today in eastern Ukraine there was a proRussian demo supporting the Berkut who were arrested---they seized a building and Ukrainian riot police are moving in.

As being reported today in Russia by TASS.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/726699

Stan

04-06-2014, 04:25 PM

Outlaw,
A very familiar setting just a few years back in little Tallinn

From Russia, ‘Tourists’ Stir the Protests (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/russias-hand-can-be-seen-in-the-protests.html?_r=1)

DONETSK, Ukraine — Around the south and east of Ukraine, in vital cities in the country’s industrial heartland, ethnic Russians have staged demonstrations and stormed buildings demanding a wider invasion of their country by Moscow.

But some of the people here calling for Russian intervention are themselves Russian — “protest tourists” from across the border.

More at the link

Stan---reference the article where he talks about a government building taken---from today in eastern Ukraine there was a proRussian demo supporting the Berkut who were arrested---they seized a building and Ukrainian riot police are moving in.

As being reported today in Russia by TASS.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/726699

OUTLAW 09

04-06-2014, 06:18 PM

@Dayuhan

No, it is not. There is no "Russian nationalism" in Russian politics because there is no concept of "nation" in Russian politics. The wery term "nation", especially in the form of "Russian nation" is banned in political vocabulary - you'll not find it in any official document ever. There are some vague terms like "Russian people" or "Russians" in use, but it correspond more with ethnicity, not with nationality.
So, there are no ideology behind Putin's moves, only sheer lust for power.

mirhond---this might to a tad beg to differ with your idea that the term nationalism is not being used when in fact "nationalism" has driven Russia since Czarist days---yes it might not be an actual word in the language which I beg to differ but in actual reality Russia has always been driven by nationalism.

This article below goes against what you are alluding to with your comment---Putin has no "lust for power" he is in fact driven to power as he is deep into Russian nationalism as that is what anchored his KGB training and his growing up in the Soviet Union---one could argue he is simply a product of the former Soviet Union trying to transition to a Czarist view of "greater Russia".

"There are two ways to talk about a Russian person or thing in the Russian language. One way, “Rossisskii,” refers to Russian citizens and the Russian state. Someone who is ethnically Chechen, Tatar, or Ukrainian can be “Rossisskii” if they carry a Russian passport and live on Russian territory.

Up until now that is how Russian President Vladimir Putin has always referred to the Russian people. Even the rather aggressive pro-Putin Russian youth movement of a few years back, Nashi (or “ours”) — with its summer camps, mass calisthenics rallies, and ugly jeering at opposition politicians — was always careful to use the word “Rossisskii.” While some critics like Valeria Novodvorskaya portrayed Nashi as if it were some kind of updated version of the Hitler youth, the group in fact never took on an ethnic slant.

That all changed on Tuesday. In his Kremlin speech to the two houses of the Russian parliament, Putin made a fateful choice. Instead of sticking to the word “Rossisskii,” he slipped into using “Russkii,” the way to refer in the Russian language to someone who is ethnically Russian. Putin said, “Crimea is primordial “Russkaya” land, and Sevastapol is a “Russkii” city.” He went on to say, “Kiev is the mother of “Russkie” cities,” in a reference to the ancient city of Kievan Rus’. (This reference must have grated on the ears of Ukrainian nationalists; as scholar Andrew Wilson points out, the historiography of Rus’ is fraught with the question of contested national origins.)

When speaking of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin added, “Millions of ‘Russkii’ went to sleep in one country and woke up in another, instantly finding themselves ethnic minorities in former Soviet republics, and the ‘Russkii’ people became one of the largest, if not the largest, divided nation in the world.”

Putin thereby signaled a crucial turning point in his regime. He is no longer simply a Russian statist, an old KGB man who wants to recapture Soviet glory, as Brookings analysts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argued in their fascinating 2013 biography.

Instead Putin has become a Russian ethnic nationalist."

Nationalism--and it does not exist in Russia?---come on mirhond ----and by the way nationalism is in fact a form of ideology. Last time I checked there are roughly 11 different forms of nationalism of which four fit Russia perfectly from the Czarist days to Stalin to Putin.

Poet Pavel Kogan described his feelings of the Soviet patriotism just before the World War II:

I am a patriot.
I love Russian air and Russian soil.
But we will reach the Ganges River, and we will die in fights, to make our Motherland shine from Japan to England

mirhond---this Russian poem mirrors to a degree many English nationalist comments that stated "the sun never sets on England".

And there is no nationalism in Russia?

kaur

04-06-2014, 09:23 PM

Outlaw, you must read this text and you see how Putin plays with word Russkii. This is Putin's 2012 presidential election manifesto that covers ethinicity question.

http://www.ng.ru/politics/2012-01-23/1_national.html

Try to translate this. I would be very glad, if mirhond could help.

Русский народ является государствообразующим – по факту существования России. Великая миссия русских – объединять, скреплять цивилизацию. Языком, культурой, «всемирной отзывчивостью», по определению Федора Достоевского, скреплять русских армян, русских азербайджанцев, русских немцев, русских татар┘ Скреплять в такой тип государства-цивилизации, где нет «нацменов», а принцип распознания «свой–чужой» определяется общей культурой и общими ценностями.
Такая цивилизационная идентичность основана на сохранении русской культурной доминанты, носителем которой выступают не только этнические русские, но и все носители такой идентичности независимо от национальности. Это тот культурный код, который подвергся в последние годы серьезным испытаниям, который пытались и пытаются взломать. И тем не менее он, безусловно, сохранился. Вместе с тем его надо питать, укреплять и беречь.

In Georgia 2008 Russia used compatriots argument.

http://www.loc.gov/law/help/russian-georgia-war.php#Russia’s%20“Protection%20of%20Citizens”%20 Justification

mirhond

04-06-2014, 10:26 PM

That all changed on Tuesday. In his Kremlin speech to the two houses of the Russian parliament, Putin made a fateful choice. Instead of sticking to the word “Rossisskii,” he slipped into using “Russkii,” the way to refer in the Russian language to someone who is ethnically Russian. Putin said, “Crimea is primordial “Russkaya” land, and Sevastapol is a “Russkii” city.” He went on to say, “Kiev is the mother of “Russkie” cities,” in a reference to the ancient city of Kievan Rus’. (This reference must have grated on the ears of Ukrainian nationalists; as scholar Andrew Wilson points out, the historiography of Rus’ is fraught with the question of contested national origins.)

When speaking of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin added, “Millions of ‘Russkii’ went to sleep in one country and woke up in another, instantly finding themselves ethnic minorities in former Soviet republics, and the ‘Russkii’ people became one of the largest, if not the largest, divided nation in the world.”

Putin thereby signaled a crucial turning point in his regime. He is no longer simply a Russian statist, an old KGB man who wants to recapture Soviet glory, as Brookings analysts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argued in their fascinating 2013 biography.

Instead Putin has become a Russian ethnic nationalist."

Nationalism--and it does not exist in Russia?---come on mirhond ----and by the way nationalism is in fact a form of ideology. Last time I checked there are roughly 11 different forms of nationalism of which four fit Russia perfectly from the Czarist days to Stalin to Putin.

And there is no nationalism in Russia?

1. As far as you obviously don't know Russian it's OK that you don't understand Putin's references. I'll try to make it clear for you. Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence (even Ukrainian naval officers didn't use Ukrainian language in their natural habitats), after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.
Term "Rossiyskii" is a bureaucratic schwonk, term "Rossiyanin" (Russian citizen) is strongly associated with ever drunk and blabbering Yeltzin, so Putin just does a most sensible thing - he speaks to public in natural language.
In general you are right - there are some minor changes in political rethoric, even the term "nation" is becoming legitimate, but calling Putin Russian ethnic nationalist means giving him too much credit.

2. Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically. Nationalism, in the broadest sence is the mean to create a nation, not just some ideology.

davidbfpo

04-06-2014, 10:41 PM

Mirhond, cited in part:
Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence ..., after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.

Are you sure you really want to use the term 'Anschluss'?

For many, if not all who know that word means something very, very wrong.
See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

carl

04-07-2014, 05:56 AM

Hey Mirhond! You're back! What you/guys been up to? I figure you guys been refocusing your approach and decided you got it right this time. It will be very interesting to see how you do. You're starting out well with your best English writer.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 06:06 AM

mirhond---you amaze at times with these two sentences.

1. As far as you obviously don't know Russian it's OK that you don't understand Putin's references. I'll try to make it clear for you. Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence (even Ukrainian naval officers didn't use Ukrainian language in their natural habitats), after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.
Term "Rossiyskii" is a bureaucratic schwonk, term "Rossiyanin" (Russian citizen) is strongly associated with ever drunk and blabbering Yeltzin, so Putin just does a most sensible thing - he speaks to public in natural language.
In general you are right - there are some minor changes in political rethoric, even the term "nation" is becoming legitimate, but calling Putin Russian ethnic nationalist means giving him too much credit.

2. Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically. Nationalism, in the broadest sence is the mean to create a nation, not just some ideology.

Point 1---there are several comments---many if not all Ukrainians speak Russian and to a degree Russians understand and speak Ukrainian goes as well for parts of Poland and other former Warsaw Pact countries that had "forced" Russian immigration after WW2 in order to establish the Russian language as the "official language" over the then existing national language of a "nation" or what some call imperialism.

By the way a specific form of "nationalism" can in fact be defined by the refusal to speak other languages and to define your language as the "supreme" all powerful language as the only language that is valid much as the Russians in the Ukraine are currently doing.

Sevastopol ---so to argue that the city is a "Russkii" city is like arguing that the Texas city San Antonia is a "Mexican" city as Spanish was the first language being used before American settlers came into the city thus it "belongs" to Mexico is a very simplistic form of nationalism using ethnicity and language to define a "nation" which excludes a number of other reasons a "nation" is formed.

Point 2---Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically.

Come on mirhond--- just where did you study? Using "nationalism" is not profane it is in fact a valid political science and international relations term used since the 1800s.

AND when used in political science and international relations discussions it is in fact referring to nationalism as an ideology.

AND again I will use it --Putin is in fact a ethnic nationalist and right now the Russian population is wrapped into a nationalism reminding one of the Czarist days and if not at least the Stalin days. Or are you arguing there is no nationalism currently being exploited by Putin and the Russian elites?

mirhond when you dictate to others on how to use terms be use that you yourself are using them correctly.

carl

04-07-2014, 06:19 AM

I just thought of something. Mirhond, you were active when things in Crimea were active. When things went quiet in Crimea, you went off line. Now you are back up. Does that mean things are going to get active somewhere?

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 11:07 AM

carl---you are right things are getting active again---this in from Interfax from today---exact same drill exact same process as in the Crimea and the Russian Army has not stood down as requested by the US/NATO/EU and especially in the last few days Germany.

The OCSE report is also not in yet which makes these demos suspect for the timing as there are indications that the OCSE is ruling there is no issues for Russians in the Ukraine.

Here is also the TASS PR link from today on the same event. http://en.itar-tass.com/world/726779

April 07, 2014 13:03 Donetsk administration barricaded with car tires

DONETSK. April 7 (Interfax) - About 1,000 people are still outside the building of the Donetsk regional state administration on Monday afternoon.

Barbed wire has been put around the entrance and a barricade of car tires erected as high as a human, an Interfax correspondent said.

A Russian flag is fluttering above the building, and masked protestors are on the entrance roof decorated with flags of the Donetsk region and of the Donetsk Republic organization.

Protestors ask through loudspeakers to bring in firewood, tires and food.

Many of the masked people are armed with baseball bats and rubber batons they took from law enforcement during the storming of the building.

The Russian anthem and songs by Russian rock-band "Lube" are played through loudspeakers just outside the building.

Ukrainian reporters are not allowed inside the administration building.

Traffic in the adjacent streets has been partly closed, side entrances to the building are protected by police.

A day earlier the administration building was occupied by people who demanded that the Donetsk regional council meet immediately for a decision to hold a referendum on joining Russia. They also promised to declare a "people's mandate" at 12 p.m. (2 p.m. Moscow time) on Monday, i.e. to "disband the regional council" and replace it with a "people's regional council" consisting of "representatives elected" from regional communities.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 11:11 AM

mirhind ---since you seemed to not like Putin being called an ethnic nationalist---thought you might like the definition since you want things scientific.

I think you will recognize Putin from this definition.

mirhond ---the German authors mentioned in the paragraph were also members of the German "Blut und Boden" movement in the mid to late 1880s in Germany that set the stage for the Nazi's---now here is the interesting link to Nazi's---Putin used the exact same "Blut und Boden" argumentation in his Duma speech so is Putin a "Nazi"?

Taken from Wikipedia:

Main article: Ethnic nationalism

See also: National mysticism and Nationalism and archaeology

Ethnic nationalism, or ethnonationalism,or ethnicism defines the nation in terms of ethnicity, which always includes some element of descent from previous generations - i.e. genophilia. It also includes ideas of a culture shared between members of the group and with their ancestors, and usually a shared language. Membership in the nation is hereditary. The state derives political legitimacy from its status as homeland of the ethnic group, and from its duty to protect the national group and facilitate its family and social life, as a group. Ideas of ethnicity are very old, but modern ethnic nationalism was heavily influenced by Johann Gottfried von Herder, who promoted the concept of the Volk, and Johann Gottlieb Fichte. Ethnic nationalism is now the dominant form, and is often simply referred to as "nationalism". Theorist Anthony D. Smith uses the term 'ethnic nationalism' for non-Western concepts of nationalism, as opposed to Western views of a nation defined by its geographical territory. The term "ethnonationalism" is generally used only in reference to nationalists who espouse an explicit ideology along these lines; "ethnic nationalism" is the more generic term, and used for nationalists who hold these beliefs in an informal, instinctive, or unsystematic way. The pejorative form of both is "ethnocentric nationalism" or "tribal nationalism," though "tribal nationalism" can have a non-pejorative meaning when discussing African, Native American, or other nationalisms that openly assert a tribal identity.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 11:45 AM

mirhond---in the spirit of keeping things "scientific" you might like this on "ideology" and if one follows this definition one just might accept Putin being an "ethnic nationalist".

For Willard A. Mullins, an ideology is composed of four basic characteristics:
1.it must have power over cognition
2.it must be capable of guiding one's evaluations;
3.it must provide guidance towards action;
4.and, as stated above, it must be logically coherent.

Mullins emphasizes that an ideology should be contrasted with the related (but different) issues of utopia and historical myth.

The German philosopher Christian Duncker called for a "critical reflection of the ideology concept" (2006). In his work, he strove to bring the concept of ideology into the foreground, as well as the closely connected concerns of epistemology and history. In this work, the term ideology is defined in terms of a system of presentations that explicitly or implicitly claim to absolute truth.

(Would think using ethnicity, language, and culture as defined by Putin as his absolute truth reflected in his Duma speech in order to annex territory of other countries fits nicely into the term ideology.---but you seem to have other meanings.)

Though the word "ideology" is most often found in political discourse, there are many different kinds of ideology: political, social, epistemological, ethical, etc.

kaur

04-07-2014, 12:22 PM

Outlaw, I'm not specialist, but this graphic makes the picture worse to me. Their ideology is very complicated thing.

mirhond

04-07-2014, 01:08 PM

mirhond

04-07-2014, 01:21 PM

JMA

04-07-2014, 01:42 PM

kaur

04-07-2014, 02:00 PM

mirhond, that quote is enough. thanks.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 02:01 PM

@OUTLAW 09

If you are going to explore "nationalism" a little bit more, don't stop on wikipedia, read this:

1. Benedict Anderson. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. 1983
2. Ernest Gellner. Nations and Nationalism. 1983
3. Eric Hobsbawm. Nations and Nationalism Since 1780: programme, myth, reality. 1991

carl

Preparations to conquer the world take time, MU-HA-HA-HA!!! \(0_0)/

I just get bored with you and waited for American Pride and Mike post something meaningful. They are may be the only two non-biased and really productive posters in this thread.

davidbfpo

I don't see how the word Anschluss itself could be harmful. Besides, after it, Germans claimed to have 97% popular support on plebiscite - almost exactly the same number we have in Crimea, that's why Anschluss is a really good term for what happened.

mirhond---you still have not answered the statement that Putin is in fact an ethnic nationalist as are many who support him as are yourself.

Secondly, you seem to avoid actually defining and using the word "nationalism" in the same sentence with the word Russia as you yourself argued there is not a word for it in Russian---would argue that there is a series of Russian word combinations that are but implicit and explicit in their use of the words--- Russian nationalism.

Thirdly, you seem to not fully understand what David implied with your use of the word Anschluss.

We can get of Wikipedia since you seem to be ready for scientific statements--try understanding and agreeing/disagreeing with these paragraphs to see if you in fact agree with the use of ethnicity---- then we can discuss further.

Otherwise just making comments and trying to impress really do not get you anywhere as for some strange reason while you critique you also fail to answer specific questions directed to you but I guess tap dancing is a form of academic excellence these days at wherever you study or not study.

By the way you avoided posting your offered ID---still waiting for it.

Distinctions between race and ethnicity tend
to focus on the following elements, singly or in
combination (as summarized by Banton 1983,
pp. 9–10, 104; Jenkins 1997, pp. 21–24, 74–75,
80–82; and Bonilla-Silva 1999, pp. 902–3): Race
is said to be involuntary, ethnicity voluntary;
race to be a matter of external categorization,
ethnicity of internal self-identification; race to
be based on differences of phenotype or nature,
ethnicity on differences of culture; race to be
rigid, ethnicity flexible; race to involve superand
subordinate, ethnicity coordinate groups;
race to arise from processes of exclusion, ethnicity
from processes of inclusion; race to have
grown out of the European colonial encounter
with the non-European world, ethnicity out of
the history of nation-state formation.

NOW that you understand and or maybe not understand the use of ethnicity- in fact Putin is an ethnic nationalist as you yourself are.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 02:17 PM

david---a friend just came out of the Crimea this weekend and the following was observed and it corresponds to the various previous military equipment video/still photo links.

All initial military videos depicting unmarked equipment are now emplaced on the border to the Ukraine and is being seen nowhere else---equipment is highly modern and new and it belongs to the what is being called the professional army meaning---no draftees.

Equipment being depicted as Ukrainian being shipped out was in fact Russian military equipment for the "regular Army" (draft army) being shipped into the Crimea and had the common Russian military numbering systems and was comprised of older military equipment-ie T72Ms being the most modern tank being seen--these units were moving into former Ukrainian Crimea bases.

There was no apparent Ukrainian extra rail equipment coming in from the Ukraine---ie railroad flat cars being seen that were either loaded and or being loaded with Ukrainian military equipment headed back to the Ukraine. The only thing evidently going back are Ukrainian personnel rail cars to be used for shipping back Ukrainian military and their families starting around the 10th.

davidbfpo

04-07-2014, 02:20 PM

Pro-Russian protesters who seized the regional government building in Donetsk, Ukraine, are reported to have declared a "people's republic". The activists in Donetsk called for Russia to send in "peacekeepers" to protect them from Kiev.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26919928

Needless to say the government of the Ukraine suspects this is the start.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 02:28 PM

mirhind---since you seem to think ethnic nationalism is not in the Russian language vocabulary then explain to me in English just what you think this Russian issued Interfax press release is in fact saying.

Then go back and tell us "what is being said between the lines" as a warning to the Ukraine.

Then tell me ethnicity is not being used in a nationalist manner to drive an imperialism reminiscent of the Czars.

oh by the way you did not get into a response on the use of nationalism and ideology which you seem to think nationalism is not especially when used in political discourse.

By the way still waiting to hear scientifically just why you think Putin is not an ethnic nationalist vs just "someone who lusts for power".

So answer the questions and do not tap dance.

April 07, 2014 16:37 Stability in Ukraine is impossible without heeding Russian-speaking people's opinion - Pushkov

mirhind---based on this Russian thought pattern you still have not answered my comment that Mexico should be defending Spanish speaking people in the Texas city San Antonio since a very large majority of the Spanish speakers are ethnically Mexican as well as culturally. Is this not what Putin spoke about in the Duma?

STRASBOURG. April 7 (Interfax) - There will be no stability in Ukraine until it begins heeding the opinion of the Russian-speaking population, Alexei Pushkov, the head of the Russian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and the head of the State Duma committee on international affairs, said.

"The situation in eastern Ukraine shows that stability will not be achieved in Ukraine without heeding the wishes of the people who live in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, primarily, Russian-speaking people," Pushkov told reporters on Monday, the day the spring session of PACE opened.

Pushkov said PACE is now beginning to understand that the situation in Ukraine is quite complex and "the current Kyiv administration has no control over the situation in the country."

"A delegation of the PACE presidential committee visited Ukraine two weeks ago. They visited Kyiv, Lviv and Donetsk and became convinced that the problem of Russians in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine really exists. It's a real problem and the people are really seriously unhappy there. They came to the conclusion that the Kyiv administration does not fully control the situation and the situation when there are military units that do not report to anyone and are illegal is not characteristic of a country that claims to be democratic at all," he said.

NOTE: mirhond---by the way that is not what was reported by this committee but I guess dis/misinformation is a great thing to use because what Interfax and TASS tell the truth?

Pushkov said he expects that most speeches made during the PACE spring session will be anti-Russian, but said that he is confident that some deputies will say that the situation in Ukraine is very complex and the Crimea crisis is a consequence of the collapse of the Ukrainian administration and the coup in Ukraine, not its cause.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 02:38 PM

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26919928

Needless to say the government of the Ukraine suspects this is the start.

David--it was the same "peaekeepers "who first arrived in the Crimea when Putin claimed there was not a single Russian solider anywhere in the Crimea.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 02:54 PM

mirhond---still waiting for a response to the complaint that Putin is an ethnic nationalist as is in fact the majority of the Russian speaking population OR are there no ethnic nationalists in Russia?

The problem with being an ethnic nationalist is that it can be reflected also in the Russian language as being outright racist and it can be used to degrade other ethnic groups of people.

AND if you know your Russian history a large number of Jewish Pogroms started in Russia and later under Stalin.

By the way long before the Nazi's got into the business of eliminating the Jewish population.

You might find this portion of an article interesting as it goes to Russian ethnicity and it's impact on other "non-Russians".

The "us-them" dichotomy is particularly important for Russians with a strong ethnocentric or ethnonationalist orientation. For these people Russians are customarily evaluated as being very good or special, so good in fact that it is difficult to imagine them being bad, as in this little joke on anti-Semites:

"Let's go beat up some Jews!" "But what if they beat us?" "Why would they do a thing like that?"

On the other hand, non-Russians (for example, Jews, Ukrainians, Germans, Georgians, Americans, and Westerners generally) may be regarded with caution, fear, ambivalence, or outright hostility. This is in line with the observed tendency for individuals who place high value on their own ethnic group to be prejudiced against another group.

Even when ethnocentric Russians attribute certain bad qualities to themselves as an ethnic group, they are inclined to overlook these qualities and favor their own over the alien group.

This phenomenon is part of what Vladimir Soloviev - writing toward the end of the nineteenth century - meant by "national egoism." As anti-Semite Vasilii Rozanov wrote in 1913: "Maybe our people is bad, but it is ours, our own, and that decides everything [Mozhet byt', narod nash i plokh, no on - nash, nash narod, i eto reshaet vse]."

As I observed above, it is difficult to hate one's own teddy bear. But it is easy to hate someone else's. And even when ethnocentric Russians deny that they hate others, we should be suspicious. Ivan Aksakov, in one of his many polemics on "the Polish question," declares: "We do not feel the slightest hatred toward Poles." But earlier in the same piece Aksakov writes: ". . . it is impossible . . . to deal with the Poles, this unhappy, conceited, arrogant, frivolous tribe which in addition is permeated with Catholic-Jesuitical morals." Such was the standard attitude, by the way, of the so-called Slavophiles toward their non-Orthodox fellow-Slavs.

Hostility toward non-Russians can take many forms. Consider, for example, some of the derogatory ethnonyms which are available to the native speaker of Russian: armiashka, ashotik - Armenian. chernozhopyi - generic for Transcaucasian, Central Asian (literally "black-assed"). khokhol - Ukrainian. kosoglazyi, - generic Asian (cf. English "slant eye"). chuchmek - generic Asian. zhid, zhidovskaia morda - Jew (cf. English "Yid" or "Kike," "Yid Face"). amerikashka - American. kitaeza - Chinese.

These terms are all offensive, evoking an emotional - not merely cognitive - response in speakers of Russian who are acquainted with them.

They constitute the central building blocks of what in an American context would be called "hate speech." It is difficult for the native speaker of Russian to utter one of these terms (as opposed to a neutral equivalent) without actually feeling some hostility. Correspondingly, it is difficult for one who is addressed with such a term not to feel offended (unless possibly the speaker is a member of one's own ethnic group).

Some of the terms listed are known to all native speakers of Russian, others are less widespread.

SO come on mirhond---there is no ethnic nationalism in Russia?

Fuchs

04-07-2014, 02:59 PM

The events in the East are an opportunity for the West to show how it's done right (as if we knew):

1. Call the OECD and UN for observers and support

2. Make sure residents are properly registered (there were some plebiscites about birder conflicts between Germany and Poland around 1919 in which plenty former residents returned tot eh area to vote). Nationality should not be relevant for the referendum, minimum age should be as for Ukrainian elections.

3. Define areas for vote (no gerrymandering by adding too much to a single vote area)

4. Vote with foreign observers (with translators and freedom of movement enforced by police) everywhere and on every step of the process.

5. Fair and transparent counting.

davidbfpo

04-07-2014, 03:12 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bknmv_nCQAAJYYC.jpg

A "#Donetsk separatist" who forgot to remove his #Russia'n Airborne Forces T-shirt... oops #fail.

Link:pic.twitter.com/qdUyUtdP2A

I am sure such T-shirts are widely available, but it makes you wonder.

The "separatists" repulsed at the TV station by the police:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoI_40kjikY

carl

04-07-2014, 03:41 PM

David:

Those cars in the YouTube video all looked to my unpracticed eye to be new, like somebody went out and bought a bunch all at once.

Stan

04-07-2014, 03:45 PM

I am sure such T-shirts are widely available, but it makes you wonder.

David,
I get the striped T-shirt thing... we have it here too.

But, the Nike tennis shoes and hospital mask :D

carl

04-07-2014, 03:47 PM

From what I've gathered when Ivan moves into Ukraine proper Poland will act. They must act but not necessarily overtly. So I have questions for those in the know. How good is the Polish intel service? How good and how big are their unconventional warfare forces? Do they have any? Did they draw any useful lessons from their experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan? Do they have unconventional warfare doctrine and practice to fall back on? And anything else that might pertain.

omarali50

04-07-2014, 03:51 PM

Fuchs, as Stalin would say "How many divisions does the UN have"...
Not that I have any clue what can be done and how.

mirhond

04-07-2014, 04:04 PM

@kaur

Русский народ является государствообразующим – по факту существования России. Великая миссия русских – объединять, скреплять цивилизацию. Языком, культурой, «всемирной отзывчивостью», по определению Федора Достоевского, скреплять русских армян, русских азербайджанцев, русских немцев, русских татар. Скреплять в такой тип государства-цивилизации, где нет «нацменов», а принцип распознания «свой–чужой» определяется общей культурой и общими ценностями.
Такая цивилизационная идентичность основана на сохранении русской культурной доминанты, носителем которой выступают не только этнические русские, но и все носители такой идентичности независимо от национальности. Это тот культурный код, который подвергся в последние годы серьезным испытаниям, который пытались и пытаются взломать. И тем не менее он, безусловно, сохранился. Вместе с тем его надо питать, укреплять и беречь.

Russian people are backbone of the state just by the very fact of Russian state existence. Great mission of Russians is to unite civilization. As Dostoyevski said - unite Russian Armenians, Azeri, Germans, Tatats by the means of language, culture and ecumenic sympathy. Unite into such kind of civilization-state where is no ethnic person and “us-them” definition is based on shared culture and values.
Such civilizational identity rests on Russian culture as centerpiece, and Kulturtragers are not only ethnic Russians but anyone who has this identity regardless of ethnicity. This culture code in recent years had faced great challenges and hack attempts but preserved anyway. It need to be nourished and protected.

AmericanPride

04-07-2014, 04:50 PM

I haven't been following the Ukraine issue in a few days, except to see in the news this morning (or last night?) about the protestors in Donestsk demanding a referendum on separation. Honestly, I'm surprised it took this long. But perhaps Moscow had recently put the brakes on its influence agents out of concern for a potential political quagmire in eastern Ukraine - already the protestors are calling for Russian intervention. I think if Moscow really wanted eastern Ukraine, it would have moved on it when it occupied Crimea. How would Ukrainian repression of Russian separatists influence Moscow perceptions of its credibility? Russian law requires the government to defend its citizens (and yes, even if those 'citizens' were recently handed their visas in the last month).

This "rebalancing" of territorial boundaries in accordance with the dispersion of ethnicies isn't surprising in the context of the post-World War II momentum of political fragmentation; ~45 countries in 1945 (IIRC) to 193+. Where should Ukraine's borders be? Where the Soviet Union established them? Where Ukrainians actually live in the majority? Russia itself has a very long history as a multi-ethnic 'empire' so the fluidity of borders is probably more acceptable in the Russian perceptive than in the Western one. Russia contextual does not fit neatly into the Western system; and the West has not done a commendable job in trying to integrate it. And this is the result.

carl

04-07-2014, 04:57 PM

American Pride:

Yea the Russian contextual of "What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable" has always been a little hard to integrate into the Western system.

Stan

04-07-2014, 05:12 PM

Carl,
we called it cleptocracy in Zaire ;)

Not that anyone finally figured it out either.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 05:13 PM

Wow----now this Russian Foreign Ministry press release via Interfax---if you would have just talked with us in the Fall of 2013 none of this would have happened.

So now the follow on question has to be "OK we can now talk about the EU association agreements and include you Russia into the EU as this is what you need in order to truly development your country and oh by the way to join one must demonstrate a democratic separation of political powers and have an independent and fair judiciary and have free and open elections."

And now you will what leave the Crimea?

Just how stupid does the Russian FM think the rest of the world is---especially when in the Fall of 2013 Russia was adamant verbally against any EU association agreement?

One has to "admire" the ability to tap dance on five weddings.

Taken from Interfax today:
19:11
IF DIALOG BETWEEN EU, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ON ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT CONSEQUENCES WAS HELD IN FALL 2013, CHAOS IN UKRAINE COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

Stan

04-07-2014, 05:17 PM

Wow----now this Russian Foreign Ministry press release via Interfax---if you would have just talked with us in the Fall of 2013 none of this would have happened.

Dude !
Link Please

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 05:19 PM

kaur

04-07-2014, 05:21 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 05:23 PM

Dude !
Link Please

Stan

Sorry here it is----Interfax PRs only hold for the day and do not roll over so there is no specific link to a particular article unless the article is highlighted in blue text---this one was highlighted in red so one understands the critical nature of the released notice.

One can go back and read the individual releases that are normally in black ---but there is usually nothing in text on the black releases other than the headline quote.

http://www.interfax.com/news.asp

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 05:29 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bknmv_nCQAAJYYC.jpg

Link:pic.twitter.com/qdUyUtdP2A

I am sure such T-shirts are widely available, but it makes you wonder.

The "separatists" repulsed at the TV station by the police:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoI_40kjikY

david---just a side note on the weapon being carried--do not think it is standard Ukrainian military issue as it is definitely Russian in origin.

The AK-103 assault rifle is a derivative of the AK-74M chambered for the 7.6239mm M43 round, similar to the older AKM. The AK-103 can be fitted with a variety of sights, including night vision and telescopic sights, plus a knife-bayonet or a grenade launcher. It uses plastic components whenever possible instead of wood or metal.

OUTLAW 09

04-07-2014, 06:02 PM

mirhond---happy to see that you in your own translation scientifically agree that there is in fact Russian ethnic nationalism which Putin is riding right now.

Although your translation left a double meaning out on three occasions, but I would have left them out as well as they actually support the concept of Russian ethnic nationalism. If directly translated.

What is far more interesting is that Putin using Russian ethnic nationalism in his Duma speech actually setup a new form of a "communism messaging" appealing to others in the world to follow him in implementing his new Doctrine of ethnicity, language and culture is redoing the old territorial boundaries. That is why Putin is dangerous.

Russian people are backbone of the state just by the very fact of Russian state existence. Great mission of Russians is to unite civilization. As Dostoyevski said - unite Russian Armenians, Azeri, Germans, Tatats by the means of language, culture and ecumenic sympathy. Unite into such kind of civilization-state where is no ethnic person and “us-them” definition is based on shared culture and values.
Such civilizational identity rests on Russian culture as centerpiece, and Kulturtragers are not only ethnic Russians but anyone who has this identity regardless of ethnicity. This culture code in recent years had faced great challenges and hack attempts but preserved anyway. It need to be nourished and protected.

davidbfpo

04-07-2014, 06:10 PM

According to a BBC reporter in Donetsk the protest outside the SBU building / regional council (unclear if in same building) numbered a thousand, the 'hard core' only a hundred:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26918410

Or:
Reports from Donetsk suggest about 50 people broke away from about 2,000 demonstrators at a rally in the main square of the city.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26915605

I note the declaration of self-determination was made by an unnamed man:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26929185

Sounds like a coup to me.

Stan

04-07-2014, 06:15 PM

According to a BBC reporter in Donetsk the protest outside the SBU building / regional council (unclear if in same building) numbered a thousand, the 'hard core' only a hundred:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26918410

Or:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26915605

I note the declaration of self-determination was made by an unnamed man:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26929185

Sounds like a coup to me.

David,
The BBC this morning along with other wire feeds claim a "paid group of Russians" orchestrated what would have otherwise been a large but peaceful demonstration. We saw the very same here in 2007. A little cash, a lot of hard alcohol and we have the makings of a great riot :wry:

When ethnic bonds are no longer sufficient, break out the vodka !

mirhond

04-07-2014, 06:18 PM

mirhond, thanks! Bad thing is, like Outlaw explained, that российские is translated Russian (people of Russian state) and русские is translated Russian (Russian by nationality). How on earth can Putin say русских армян, русских азербайджанцев, русских немцев, русских татар?

For example try to find here expression "русских амян". Is assimilated Armenian called "русскии армян"?

http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Армяне_в_России

Well, it's your Anglo-Saxon problem that you can't scribe the difference on paper :) You have one word for two completely different things.
Morover, there is subtle difference between for example "русский армянин" which means Armenian long exposed to Russian language and culture and "российский армянин" which means just Armenian resident in Russia, who got his passport yesterday.
So, Armenians who suddenly become the subjects of Russian Empire in 19th century are obviously "российские армяне" and Armenians who are assimilated to the point of loosing their language and culture are "русские армяне", contemporary non-resident Armenian traders with dual citizenship - "российские армяне", contemporary Armenian residents with only Russian citizenship, language and loads of Russian habits - "русские армяне". There is no contradiction in Russian language, only in English.

@OUTLAW 09

happy to see that you in your own translation scientifically agree that there is in fact Russian ethnic nationalism which Putin is riding right now

No, it is not true.
ps. no links from you, as usual.. well, enjoy your wishful thinking, believe anything you want to be true.

kaur

04-07-2014, 06:48 PM

Mirhond, thanks for explanation!

Outlaw, there must be special code like Putin said that makes you Russian. Mirhond can maybe elaborate this. This brings us to that diagram I posted.

Such civilizational identity rests on Russian culture as centerpiece, and Kulturtragers are not only ethnic Russians but anyone who has this identity regardless of ethnicity. This culture code in recent years had faced great challenges and hack attempts but preserved anyway. It need to be nourished and protected.

This seems to be work of spin doctors.

http://www.risingpowersinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/Inside-and-Around-the-Kremlin.pdf

http://scilla.ru/works/knigi/nac2010.pdf

Stan

04-07-2014, 07:02 PM

Hey Mirhond !

I don't need a translation lesson today :)

But, I was wondering how everyday Russian nationals feel about say ethnic Russians living in the Baltic States.

We also differentiate between Baltic Russians (not always a good reputation) and real Russians (generally a very neutral opinion as tourists).

The Baltic Russians feel they are not welcome in Russia, and the real Russians feel a distinct dislike for them abroad as tourists.

This is not just some nationalistic thing, but more a general feeling in the Baltic States about Russians. But, when I ask the question about people or government, we end up with a different view.

And, oddly enough, when a Baltic Russian goes to say Moscow for a vacation, he feels like he is being treated as a second class citizen. Kind of like a Belgian being insulted by a Frenchman for speaking poor French.

Half of what happens here seems to be a misunderstanding (lost in translation as with your post to Kaur), and worse yet, years of mistrust.

But, lately, there appears to be some heavy handed play at hand. If the confusion and unrest are insufficient to create a riot, then someone gets involved to make sure it appears as if Russians are in danger. Are they really in danger or just being scrutinized for remaining a minority in a country where they were born and raised ?

A bit confusing at least for me living here for more than 20 years. It's not just some language barrier here. Fine, you don't want to learn the local culture and language, but you wish to live here and not in Russia. But then why complain to Putin that you are being mistreated when you could simply return home ?

Your thoughts ?

Stan

04-07-2014, 07:44 PM

Well, ministry of truth says that we must be gravely concerned about Russian non-citizens in Baltic states, but I personally don't give a fu(k. It's a common attitude here, I believe, especially when propaganda mashine is off duty.
If Baltic Russians don'd bother with learning state languages and demand privileges - well, thoose dumb####s deserve nothing but some law enforcement.
Why they won't go home? They know Russia is unwelcoming place for native Russians, not to mention anyone else :)

Thanks !

A good answer that most would not share.

mirhond

04-07-2014, 07:46 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BkjecmKCQAA86VI.jpg

Ukrainian National Guard. Not the brightest guys, I suppose.

ps. @OUTLAW 09

just a side note on the weapon being carried--do not think it is standard Ukrainian military issue as it is definitely Russian in origin.
The AK-103 assault rifle is a derivative of the AK-74M chambered for the 7.6239mm M43 round, similar to the older AKM.

Bullshиt. Guys hold AKS-74,http://world.guns.ru/userfiles/_thumbs/Images/assault/as02/aks74.jpg
or AK-74 http://world.guns.ru/userfiles/_thumbs/Images/assault/as02/ak74m_91.jpg

supposedly looted from police station or security department.

picture of AK-103 for comparisonhttp://world.guns.ru/userfiles/_thumbs/Images/assault/as05/ak103.jpg

Stan

04-07-2014, 07:54 PM

Being an instructor has its moments :o

davidbfpo

04-07-2014, 09:30 PM

A report that the Ukrainian state authorities are taking robust police action:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-49-separatists-call-for-moscows-protection/#2008

JMA

04-07-2014, 10:12 PM

A report that the Ukrainian state authorities are taking robust police action:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-49-separatists-call-for-moscows-protection/#2008

David, it is obvious the Ukrainians are rank amateurs.

If there was any paramilitary/military competence they could have snatched a selection of 'Russian' rioters and after suitable coercion had them on National TV spilling the beans as who they are and who their puppet masters are.

In the absence of this, one must assume that the conspiract theory of Russian manipulation is being exaggerated.

davidbfpo

04-07-2014, 10:24 PM

BBC TV News has just reported that the Russian Foreign Minister has dismissed the occupations etc and stated they are an internal matter. Not on website yet.

AmericanPride

04-07-2014, 11:19 PM

American Pride:

Yea the Russian contextual of "What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable" has always been a little hard to integrate into the Western system.

It's ironic that here you are arguing that Russians are not free to do as they please but on the other forum regarding the Second Amendment, everyone should do as they please. Anyway, the attitude of "what's mine is mine" is typical in anarchial politics where the power of the strong is the determinant of the outcome since there's no process to actually find, implement, or enforce a just solution. Talk about integration means building linkages and incentives to conform to a specific range of behaviors and norms; clearly the seizure of another state's territory and it's annexation through referendum is unacceptable in the Western context (at least as it applies to Ukraine but not Yugoslavia or Sudan). And that's because Russia is not a part of the political and economic structures of the West - sure, it has connections with it, but only in the way that one house might be connected to another, rather than being governed by the same 'house rules' so to speak. That window was during the early 1990s and possibly a smaller one in the early 2000s but clearly the Kremlin is flushed with confidence now and sees no reason for compliance.

And why should the Russians be at all concerned about Western norms? If we're talking about encouraging Russia to be a responsible state party in the Western-led international system, alienating it from the institutions that constitute that system is not the logical course.

Dayuhan

04-08-2014, 12:27 AM

Opposing views in Forbes... sort of a litmus check on the discourse among the financially concerned, just as Foreign Affairs is a good point to look in on the debates among the foreign policy elite.

What could be called a "neocon" side:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/04/07/putins-attack-on-ukraine-began-today-what-this-means-for-europe-and-the-us/

And a "paleocon" opposing view:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2014/04/07/washington-should-not-defend-ukraine-or-expand-nato-u-s-should-shift-responsibility-for-europes-defense-to-europe/

For views that don't end in "con" we have to go somewhere other that Forbes.

Fuchs

04-08-2014, 01:22 AM

My 2 cents (from the blog (http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.de/2014/04/when-all-you-have-is-hammer.html)) were

When all you have is a hammer ...

... all problems look like nails to you.

I'm not impressed by Gates' display of intellect a.k.a. his recent Wall Street Journal column (http://putin%27s%20challenge%20to%20the%20west/).

Him about Putin:

He also has a dramatically different worldview than the leaders of Europe and the U.S. He does not share Western leaders' reverence for international law, the sanctity of borders, which Westerners' believe should only be changed through negotiation, due process and rule of law.

How stupid or dishonest is a man who was secretary of defence during the occupation of Iraq and still writes this? "reverence for international law"?
Right now I want an arena, Gladiator-style, full of Iraqi women who lost their sons in the war of aggression against Iraq in 2002, and Mr. Gates in the centre. I'd donate the shoes. Heavy, steel-capped work shoes.

Quite to the contrary; what Mr. Gates bemoans is not that Putin is unlike Western politicians; he bemoans that Putin has become like Gates' own ilk.

Do a thought experiment: Think of U.S. foreign politicians, White House folks under GWB and foreign policy commentators. Now imagine what policies they would advocate if they were Russians.

There are somewhat more sensible accounts of why and how Putin came to behave like this, and they don't dismiss the legitimacy of Russian grievances as easily as Gates. They rather paint a picture in which Western hypocrisy and "containment" policy (if not encroachment) have provoked Russia to behave as it does now. The high energy commodity prices of the last decade have helped Russia economically and made it more stable, more powerful. Now it asserts the right to be just as aggressive and hypocritical as some Western powers.

We've got many people who think they're brilliant enough to do foreign policy or to give advice on it. And too many of them aren't that brilliant, but rather fool themselves. They aren't even smart enough to comprehend backlash. Too many of them are one-trick ponies, capable of thinking in but one direction: Confrontation.

- - - - -

For sure, the majority of countries and people want a rules-based foreign policy world if they made up their mind about foreign policy at all. Others - with much military potential on call - think that rules are for the weak. The weak shall obey the rules, while the powerful do what they want.
And amidst all the nonsense talk about an "unipolar" world with but one "superpower" [blatherblather] these people fooled themselves into believing that their own party is the only one which can break the rules and get away with it (officially). Too bad Russia proves that others - shielded by the very same nuclear arms threat and the very same UNSC veto power - can break the rules as well and get away with it (officially). Now they're crying foul and rally to reduce this other power to a weak power which has to obey the rules.
Fools.

The NATO members had a unique opportunity to shape the world from a position of strength, to have the self-discipline and foresight to submit to rules as do the supposed weak powers. Instead, the steering wheel was given to warmongers in exactly the wrong countries and now we've got this mess with a hypocritical mixture of great and small powers, rule of force and rule of law.

We all pay the price by living in a world with unnecessary rivalries, hostilities, waste of resources and instability. At the very least we should punish the warmongers and make sure they won't be able to act as if they were wise experts on foreign policy any more.

(Gates and his column were merely a pretext, of course. And I should have added ", preferably with weapons" to "confrontation".)

Stan

04-08-2014, 07:36 AM

David, it is obvious the Ukrainians are rank amateurs.

If there was any paramilitary/military competence they could have snatched a selection of 'Russian' rioters and after suitable coercion had them on National TV spilling the beans as who they are and who their puppet masters are.

In the absence of this, one must assume that the conspiract theory of Russian manipulation is being exaggerated.

Mark,
Dead on the money !

Our criminal police rounded up over 270 "non State actors" and sent them home packing. It happened so fast, that by the time Moscow began screaming, the Russian boys were already across the border :D

Remembering what Estonian President Ilves said to Obama.

Chase down their money and be suspicious of every Russian passport holder.

This should have happened at the border, long before these "tourists" made it in.

OUTLAW 09

04-08-2014, 11:55 AM

An interesting article on what Putin and his FM are demanding that the Ukrainians anchor in their new constitution---the idea of federalization.

Two things are at the core of their argument 1) the Ukraine needs a new constitution to reflect the Russian areas and 2) it must be anchored in the concept of federalization.

If one digs deeper into the many comments Putin and his FM has stated under federation the individual regions would also be allowed to work out their own economic treaties and international contacts independent of the central Ukrainian government's basic rights as a government to do the same thing.

Interesting that Russia/Putin and the FM keep referring to the 21 Feb. agreement which if anyone wants to look it up was not signed by Russia who just sent their Human Rights Commissioner to observe the 21 Feb meetings.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-federalization-card-in-ukraine/497680.html

Stan

04-08-2014, 04:22 PM

If they don't get their act together fast... really fast, 09 May will be a nightmare for the population.

Victory Day is basically a bunch of BS unless you are a restless Russian leader with his heart set on yet another victory :D

Despite our developed security, we still have problems although short lived.

The only way out now is to billet about 10,000 UN troops with a bunch of friends flying in from all over creation.

Damn guys, get your Sierra together now !

carl

04-08-2014, 05:10 PM

In view of recent events and Stan's comment I want to ask again about Polish capability for unconventional warfare in the Ukraine, do they have any? Will they use it?

Stan

04-08-2014, 05:54 PM

Carl,
Perhaps a little off the mark here with my pesky opinions, but then, we’ve been there, done that.

The Polish SF is on a par with most NATO units. But, why SF units and their capabilities ? Most SF units are trainers and we’ve past the point of training.

Looking back, what we should have had were a gazillion blue helmets running around and observing and protecting, all the while with a few military platoons and fighting vehicles for effect.

Victory Day will be a serious excuse and Putin knows that. Whatever happens instigated or otherwise, will only cement his profound impressions and warnings.

What we really need in the Ukraine now is several thousand peace keepers all over creation. Putin enjoys anonymity and he can’t do that with the borders closed and a bunch of freaky Westerners hanging about.

The trump card, much like in Zaire way back when, is to play into their hands with something they never wanted nor expected.

They need to shut their borders down, get rid of any Russian passport holders and re-take their buildings.

Alternatively, similar to the Baltic States, pay no attention to those that are occupying buildings. It is but symbolic and if you pay no attention, they will eventually go home to have lunch.

This is not Africa, but it is damn close to genocide if we play into Putin’s hand.
They can’t go it alone and we know that. What in God’s name Obama is doing puzzles the bejesus out of me.

AmericanPride

04-08-2014, 05:55 PM

American Pride---the core problem with the Putin Doctrine is that in theory we could have Mexico claiming to "defend" the rights of all Spanish speaking individuals in San Antonio Texas based on ethnicity, language, and culture or for that matter San Diego or LA or Chicago or even NYC

Kidding aside---there are over 300 hot spots in the world where the Putin Doctrine (the redoing of existing territorial boundaries based on ethnicity, language and culture) can be applied to--- most of them in Africa and Asia--and at least 15 alone in Russia.

The issue of territorial boundaries goes back to the European imperialism days and that includes Russia as well and the results of Soviet boots on the ground after WW2.

Not so sure one needs to open Pandora's Box in order to redraw national boundaries.

That box was blown wide open with the dismantling of Yugoslavia, culminating in the unilateral independence of Kosovo. The US has often been a proponent of self-determination (Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, South Sudan) but also regularly opposed it (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Kurdistan, Crimea, Puntland). I don't recall the US position on East Timor.

Irredentism is not a new concept although its use as a deliberate foreign policy to break apart rivals is probably fairly recent. The eastern European states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, with the exception of Poland, never had formal independence prior to either the end of the USSR or the Russian Empire. So their current independence is not rooted in recognition of a long history of political independence but on the justification that nations (i.e. peoples) deserve states. And if we accept that each nation ought to have a state, then it follows that the state should contain the whole of the nation. Is Ukraine's territorial integrity justified by its organization as a Ukrainian state or is it based upon the borders given to it by the Soviet Union? Neither really offer substantive argument for retaining Crimea in Ukraine, and if we follow the nation-state argument, then either Russians need to emigrate to Russia or Russian borders need to change. So, we can say Ukraine's territorial integrity is inalienable "just because..."?

Mexico is a bad example - if only because the Mexican 'nation' is different in character than other nations; just as I would argue there's no true American 'nation'. At one point, the Mexican Empire stretched from the current Canadian border to Panama. And historically, this has been the norm - the creation of multi-ethnic empires (Mexico, Russia, Austria-Hungary, Ottomans, etc). Russia is not a state in the Westphalian sense, even though the West tries to pretend it is, but it never has been an Westphalian nation-state.

I think there's some credibility to the theory that the final product of irredentism is generally peace; at least we have the example of post-World War 2 Europe with the massive population transfers and border exchanges, solidified further by two opposing military alliances. But now one of those alliances has disappeared and so has one of the multi-ethnic empires governing it, so there's alot of unresolved disputes, and new disputes, that have emerged. But as I've stated irredentism is great for nation-states, and I do not think Russia is a nation-state in the Westphalian context. So how do we get Russia from an imperial state (in the sense of one center ruling over multiple other peoples) to a Westphalian state in practice?

Stan

04-08-2014, 06:02 PM

So how do we get Russia from an imperial state (in the sense of one center ruling over multiple other peoples) to a Westphalian state in practice?

A great question with no Western answer.

We refuse to listen to people that have dealt with Vovo for years.
What's the big deal in admitting you have not a friggin clue and just spout BS via diplomatic channels as if you were somebody ?

Even the playing field and do as they do. That's the only thing they understand and the only way we can get by. Nobody wins BTW.

We better accept the fact that we will not win. Unless we want to entertain 2 million soldiers locked in a nuke war.

Only then, can a compromise be had.

OUTLAW 09

04-08-2014, 07:40 PM

In view of recent events and Stan's comment I want to ask again about Polish capability for unconventional warfare in the Ukraine, do they have any? Will they use it?

carl---they in fact have a very good airborne unit we watched during the cold war days and they have a very good SF ability who has had extensive experience with NATO/US SF. And their officers are definitely not proRussian.

OUTLAW 09

04-08-2014, 07:49 PM

To everyone who posts here---Putin and the Russian FM keep mentioning over and over that there is a 150 man group from a western security company somewhere in the Ukraine.

Has anyone seen anything anywhere written about this supposed western security company---whatever the Russians are "seeing" is bothering them.

This goes back actually to the 1968 Czech thing that the SU claimed US SF from Germany were inside Czechoslovakia and involved in Prague.

Maybe they are "seeing" shadows again or maybe their own spatnaz teams have in fact "seen" US counterparts on the ground.

Reference this response from the Ukrainian government.

April 08, 2014 18:42

No U.S. security forces in southeast Ukraine - Kyiv

KYIV. April 8 (Interfax) - Ukraine's acting chief of the presidential administration Serhiy Pashynsky has denied claims that foreign mercenaries are involved in the Interior Ministry's operations in east Ukraine.

"I responsibly declare: there is no Right Sector, let alone U.S. security forces, in Kharkiv, Donetsk or Luhansk," Pashynsky said.

He joked, pointing at himself and Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov standing beside him: "American spies, two American security officers, are standing in front of you."

Later the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry denied that any foreigners were involved in handling the situation in southeastern Ukrainian towns.

"The police measures currently in place in the eastern regions of Ukraine involve solely Ukrainian law enforcement," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyinis said at a briefing on Tuesday.

"We are surprised by such Russian claims," he said.

Last week the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry already denied such information from a blog, he recalled. "Of course, it got no confirmation," the diplomat said.

On April 7 the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the Ukrainian Internal Troops and National Guards forces "with participation of militants from Right Sector, an illegal armed group," were moving to the southeast regions, including Donetsk. "They have the task of cracking down on protests of the country's southeastern residents against the policies of the current Kyiv authorities," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Also, "particular alarm" is raised by the reports that this operation involves "about 150 U.S. specialists from the private military organization Greystone, disguised in Sokol special forces uniforms," the ministry said.

AmericanPride

04-08-2014, 08:01 PM

A great question with no Western answer.

We refuse to listen to people that have dealt with Vovo for years.
What's the big deal in admitting you have not a friggin clue and just spout BS via diplomatic channels as if you were somebody ?

Even the playing field and do as they do. That's the only thing they understand and the only way we can get by. Nobody wins BTW.

We better accept the fact that we will not win. Unless we want to entertain 2 million soldiers locked in a nuke war.

Only then, can a compromise be had.

The other thing to consider is that the conception of 'democracy' and what it means is different in the Russian tradition than the Western one (whether it's French, American, etc). Russians had their first taste of a democratic practice with the introduction of the Duma under the Czar, and it's powers were extremely limited. This was briefly replaced by a provisional republican government immediately prior to the October Rebolution, and then followed by then Soviet government and the CPSU with its emphasis on "democratic centralism" and organization by council. Even the Stalin Constitution formally granted rights and implemented democratic mechanisms although these were never respected in any sense acceptable in the West (due mostly to the consolidation of power, officially and mostly unofficially, by Stalin through the domination of the CPSU, as opposed to the actual relationships of the state bureaucracies). And at least in these early formulations of 'democracy', even when the CPSU approved candidates and many short-lists only had one name, citizens had a genuine confidence in the system of voting. Of course that revolutionary zeal eventually faded, until the Soviet system was replaced by the chaos of the oligarch model under Yeltsin, which in many ways was no more democratic in practice than the USSR - the elite just stopped paying lip service to the working class.

So now last week we have this latest about how Russians view democracy, and it's again clear that the Russian tradition of democracy is not at all like the Western one. Political order and social stability are priorities and civil rights and freedom of speech are treated more like bonuses instead of inalienable rights. If Putin is a criminal, evil, corrupt, a rogue, and whatever other characterizations provided of him, what's the source of his legitimacy in Russia? And if Russian democracy is formulated differently than in the West, and we are to respect political sovereignty, then how do we reconcile the differences in policy outcomes?

mirhond

04-08-2014, 08:08 PM

STILL WAITING FOR YOUR ID YOU YOURSELF OFFERRED TO PROVIDE-

Oh, come on! Why do you still bother? I'm a KGB agent - of cause i'll send you a fake ID! There is no evidence in the entire Universe to disprove your claim, even the Divine Intervention won't help, I suppose.

If Putin is a criminal, evil, corrupt, a rogue, and whatever other characterizations provided of him, what's the source of his legitimacy in Russia?

Well, the source is the same magic which legitimized Hitler's power over German nation, the charms he casted upon the will of his people. Don't laugh, I've heard this explanation from German once.

OUTLAW 09

04-08-2014, 08:13 PM

Oh, come on! Why do you still bother? I'm a KGB agent - of cause i'll send you a fake ID! There is no evidence in the entire Universe to disprove your claim, even the Divine Intervention won't help, I suppose.

Still awaiting it---and you have not responded to the "scientific" comments on Putin being an ethnic nationalist when you claimed he is not a nationalist---he simply lusts for power.

So now explain to us the reasons why you think he is not an "ethnic nationalist" using scientific arguments and as well explain why there is a belief by yourself that he is "lusting for power all by himself".

Should be an interesting comparison as I have never seen a "scientific" explanation of "lusting for power" by a national leader democratically elected to his position unless the entire population he is representing is "also lusting".

Unless Putin was not democratically elected?

Stan

04-08-2014, 08:42 PM

davidbfpo

04-08-2014, 09:44 PM

In Post 961 AmericanPride referred to, cited from a long passage:
The eastern European states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, with the exception of Poland, never had formal independence prior to either the end of the USSR or the Russian Empire.

This puzzles me. Are you referring to the countries with the USSR / Russian Empire? Or the wider membership of the Warsaw Pact?

Poland was not within the USSR, it was a Warsaw Pact member and IIRC its frontiers were endorsed, agreed whatever by the WW2 allies in the Yalta Agreement.

To Westerners and maybe others the 'satellite' countries in Eastern Europe may not have had independence by our standards, but history has ample examples of some not being guided from Moscow. Such as the decision by Hungary to allow East German tourists to exit for West Germany in 1989 is regarded by many as a critical event.

davidbfpo

04-08-2014, 10:01 PM

Ukrainian police and interior ministry special forces evicted protesters from the Kharkiv regional administration on Tuesday in a bloodless dawn raid, arresting about 70 people.

But by nightfall separatists still held the regional administration building in Donetsk and the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) building in Luhansk, both of which have been fortified with barricades.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10753334/US-accuses-Russia-of-sending-spies-into-eastern-Ukraine-to-create-chaos.html

davidbfpo

04-08-2014, 11:56 PM

Professor John Schindler has two excellent commentaries on current events on his invaluable blog site:http://20committee.com/

Yesterday 'Putinism and the Anti-WEIRD Coalition', ah what is WEIRD? In part:
I’ll elaborate what Putinism actually is, but before I do, it’s important to understand why President Obama and countless other Westerners cannot see what is right before them. Putin and the Kremlin actively parrot their propaganda, they are doing anything but hide it, yet we still cannot make it out.

This is simply because we are WEIRD. That’s social science shorthand for Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic – and nobody is WEIRDer than Americans. In the last several decades many Americans, and essentially all our elites, have internalized a worldview based on affluence, individualism, and secularism that makes us unique, globally speaking. So much so that we seem unable to comprehend that there actually are opposing viewpoints out there.

Link:http://20committee.com/2014/04/07/putinism-and-the-anti-weird-coalition/

Today he has an update on East Switzerland, a model country Transdniestria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). OK get a map, I meant East Switzerland in jest.:eek::D

The real comment is entitled 'After Crimea, is Transdniestria Next?':http://20committee.com/2014/04/08/after-crimea-is-transdnistria-next/

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/TransnistrianRegionMap.png

AmericanPride

04-09-2014, 02:48 AM

In Post 961 AmericanPride referred to, cited from a long passage:

This puzzles me. Are you referring to the countries with the USSR / Russian Empire? Or the wider membership of the Warsaw Pact?

Poland was not within the USSR, it was a Warsaw Pact member and IIRC its frontiers were endorsed, agreed whatever by the WW2 allies in the Yalta Agreement.

To Westerners and maybe others the 'satellite' countries in Eastern Europe may not have had independence by our standards, but history has ample examples of some not being guided from Moscow. Such as the decision by Hungary to allow East German tourists to exit for West Germany in 1989 is regarded by many as a critical event.

Yeah - that's my mix up. I meant the Russian Empire, hence the Poland reference.

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 06:51 AM

Some argue that our misunderstanding of Russia and of our relations is sufficient to seriously damage our national interests.

I am no academic and share only my personal views based on real experience, not often accepted elsewhere.

We blew it in Africa and we are blowing it now thinking we are smarter. We are not, and we are not on an even playing field. If there was ever a time we should be listening to the people who manged to understand and manipulate Putin, now would be a good time to do said.

I'm disappointed that some feel all of this is but a cultural misunderstanding.

You are however correct. We don't get it and the Russians are better at deception.

On 9 May, much like in all the former Soviet countries, the tiny group of former Soviet military - regardless of age and sex - will converge in some symbolic place and cause mayhem. It has happened every year and will continue, whether we understand it or not.

No secret formulas nor rocket scientists. I doubt even Abraham Maslow would have figured out what was going on.

If they don't get their act together soonest, we will no longer be having this conversation.... regardless of who got it right :rolleyes:

Stan---this article on the lack of basic intel sharing goes to the heart on the lack of a strategy currently being shown by the WH/Obama.

They are just winging it in the hopes of not having to get a step one in the violence chain all the while claiming to support the Ukraine because I think they still do not internally accept that Ukraine is worth the risk to the US.

Obama has and will always shun direct confrontation with anyone or anything---he is what we called in the 60s basically a peacenik at heart.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/08/exclusive-u-s-won-t-share-invasion-intel-with-ukraine.html

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 07:12 AM

Professor John Schindler has two excellent commentaries on current events on his invaluable blog site:http://20committee.com/

Yesterday 'Putinism and the Anti-WEIRD Coalition', ah what is WEIRD? In part:

Link:http://20committee.com/2014/04/07/putinism-and-the-anti-weird-coalition/

Today he has an update on East Switzerland, a model country Transdniestria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). OK get a map, I meant East Switzerland in jest.:eek::D

The real comment is entitled 'After Crimea, is Transdniestria Next?':http://20committee.com/2014/04/08/after-crimea-is-transdnistria-next/

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/TransnistrianRegionMap.png

David---agree fully with the author---but one more reason we do not get it is we in the West officially and publically gave up on the discussion of nationalism after the Wall and the national wars of liberation.

That is why I get pushing the press releases for both TASS and Interfax as they actually accurately even though in our eyes are say propaganda it reflects actually what Putin and Co. are thinking/saying/doing and more over the WHY.

When one does interrogation for a long number of years one tends to develop an ear for listening and understanding the intent of words as the words and their double meaning are what is important and I think this is what the good professor is really saying in a WEIRD way.

This goes as well for American Pride's comment on how to move Russia to the Westphalia Agreements of past centuries.

Russia is much like Islam actually more than they would agree with. Yes Putin is a Czarist doing land grabs and empire building but the Maidan "scared" him to his core being.

Why---much as in Islam Russia has not had it's "Westphalian" moment meaning it has to be challenged by the population such as the Arab Springs and the "color" revolts have done.

You can see in the Interfax PRs this fear being expressed and how Putin has changed the basic laws trying to inhibit anything similar to the Maidan occurring in Moscow---we tend to forget that awhile ago there were thousands in the streets against Putin.

Putin and his elite fully understand that the billions made on oil and gas have basically not improved the well being of the average Russian and at some point that will erupt as well as Russia has not developed industrially the way they should have with the billions---yes the oligarchs and the hipsters have made millions but the average Russian has seen nothing.

This is the same problem that we see in Islam---currently three different directions secular, salafistis and taktfiri are competing and until they have their "reformation" the internal/external competition will continue.

The same goes for Russia---until they have their own "color" revolt we will be seeing far more Ukraine's as Putin currently feels "motivated/supported" by the nationalism in the population.

AP is correct he must be moved to Westphalia but without a massive nudge by his own population this will not occur just as the Islamists need a "reformation".

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 07:24 AM

This article is a good indicator that many of the proRussian demonstrators are coming from outside the Ukraine.

Do not think a local would mistake a major building for being something else.

There were a number of reports stating that the Russian being spoken was not the same Russian spoken in the region, that vehicles without plates were delivering construction materials suddenly would appear and then drive away and on and on.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/protesters-storm-kharkiv-theater-thinking-it-was-city-hall/497709.html

kaur

04-09-2014, 07:26 AM

AmericanPride said:

The eastern European states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, with the exception of Poland, never had formal independence prior to either the end of the USSR or the Russian Empire. So their current independence is not rooted in recognition of a long history of political independence but on the justification that nations (i.e. peoples) deserve states. And if we accept that each nation ought to have a state, then it follows that the state should contain the whole of the nation

I'm not in position to suggest you to study more history, but I do hope that this fact gives you motivation to dig deeper.

To this public pact of nonaggression was appended a secret protocol, also reached on August 23, 1939, which divided the whole of eastern Europe into German and Soviet spheres of influence. Poland east of the line formed by the Narew, Vistula, and San rivers would fall under the Soviet sphere of influence. The protocol also assigned Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland to the Soviet sphere of influence and, further, broached the subject of the separation of Bessarabia from Romania. A secret supplementary protocol (signed September 28, 1939) clarified the Lithuanian borders. The Polish-German border was also determined, and Bessarabia was assigned to the Soviet sphere of influence. In a third secret protocol (signed January 10, 1941, by Count Friedrich Werner von Schulenberg and Molotov), Germany renounced its claims to portions of Lithuania in return for Soviet payment of a sum agreed upon by the two countries.

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/230972/German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact

To continue the XXcommittee post, last October 1 Polish guy wrote nice paper about Putin's Europe.

http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/greater_europe_net.pdf

"Ilyin and Putin" thing is for me little mystery. As far as I understand he was anti-Soviet emigree and KGB was hunting this kind of people. They were threat to communist regime. Now his thoughts are propmoted about former and present day siloviki. What is the logic? Putin and Co were members of unrooted underground movement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trust_Operation ?

Dugin, Prohhanov, Kurginjan etc. those guys have existed during in the Russian indeological terrain for a long time. Why they were picked up from the toolbox this time? Here is Russia's youth movement's propaganda brochure from 2007. Even if you don't understand text, pictures will say a lot. Very aggressive message.

http://www.zaks.ru/pda/archive/view/54291/

It was year, when Putin was selecting successor. Next year milder Medvedev became president. Is this maskirovka like Schindler says?

JMA

04-09-2014, 08:14 AM

carl---they in fact have a very good airborne unit we watched during the cold war days and they have a very good SF ability who has had extensive experience with NATO/US SF. And their officers are definitely not proRussian.

I suggest this matter is now beyond boots on the ground or parachutes in the air.

The US Administration should announce that if the government of Ukraine were to request the supply of tactical nuclear weapons they would look favourably on such a request.

The Russians seem to have the same mindset of Nazi Germany in the late 30's which needs to be countered with the promise that the cost of Russain expansionism will have a cost too great to bear.

This being step one.

JMA

04-09-2014, 08:33 AM

Stan,

I have no understanding of the psyche of Russians in general and Putin in particular but to me the key to how to deal with Russia revolves around whether they - Putin and the Russian people - would be prepared to commit national (Russian) suicide in a nuclear conflagration if they are not able to expand their borders and subjugate the peoples so incorporated.

Years of weakness and foreign policy indecisiveness by the US and a massive error of judgement by the Germans has given Putin and the Russians the idea that they can do what they want without fear of any opposition beyond verbal wailing and sanctions alkin to a slap on the wrist.

You need a White House that can stare down the Russians now... which you don't have. The combination of Obama/Biden/Kerry/Rice/Hagel is probably the most inept and pathetic combination in the history of the US.

Once this situation has been diffused then one can take steps to make sure Russia will never have the means to mount such and exercise again. Their oil and gas power needs to be dismantled.

A great question with no Western answer.

We refuse to listen to people that have dealt with Vovo for years.
What's the big deal in admitting you have not a friggin clue and just spout BS via diplomatic channels as if you were somebody ?

Even the playing field and do as they do. That's the only thing they understand and the only way we can get by. Nobody wins BTW.

We better accept the fact that we will not win. Unless we want to entertain 2 million soldiers locked in a nuke war.

Only then, can a compromise be had.

AmericanPride

04-09-2014, 02:12 PM

kaur,

To clarify, with the exception of Poland, all the states in question were a part of the Russian Empire and/or Soviet Union for the better part of their histories. And most of those countries, like Ukraine, only experienced independence in any form related to the current version of their state only in the 20th century. Sure, "states" (if loosely defined) existed in those territories for many hundreds of years, but they were not at all like the bureaucratic-based state model whatsoever, nor were they married with the current concept of 'nation'. That's not to see that the current states are not legitimate, but only that their legitimacy is not rooted in a long history of independence like say, France. So we, "the West", can demand respect for the territorial integrity of these states, but not on a historical basis, only a legal one, and as I've stated repeatedly in previous posts, Russia is neither, in my view, a state in the Western Westphalian conception, nor is it firmly integrated in the Western system to compel it to conform to those norms.

For Ukraine specifically, some might claim that the short-lived Ukrainian People's Republic is the predecessor to modern Ukraine, but that conveniently ignores the 72 years that Ukraine existed as a SSR, and the borders it currently has given it to by the USSR (after several changes during the course of its existence). So on what basis do we say that Ukraine's borders are inalienable? What the Russians have exploited to the detriment of the West, although the West really established this precedent post-Cold War, is the strengthening of self-determination at the expense of territorial integrity. Of course Russia has many problems of its own with its nationalities but like I've stated, Russia is an imperial state, not a Westphalian one, so that contradiction doesn't exist for the Kremlin. And that's because of the Russian tradition of statehood - first the rule by princes and overlords, then the expansion of the state over vast territories with vulnerable borders, and finally culminating in the Russian Federation. And all this time it was necessary for a centralized authority to mobilize the vast and distant resources of the country. Russia has a very different history - why should we expect it to have the same behavior and perspective as the West today?

Years of weakness and foreign policy indecisiveness by the US and a massive error of judgement by the Germans has given Putin and the Russians the idea that they can do what they want without fear of any opposition beyond verbal wailing and sanctions alkin to a slap on the wrist.

I disagree. US foreign policy towards Russia has been fairly aggressive, and Russian policy statements over the last decade or so has made that pretty clear; the two most divisive issues up to this point were NATO enlargement and missile defense. Russia is flush with confidence not because of American 'weakness' but because of renewed Russian strength. And that has to do with the context of the chaos of the Yeltsin years after many centuries of 'great power' status as the Empire and USSR. Russian policy makers believer that's the country's rightful place in the world, and they now believe Russia has the stability and power to restore it.

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 02:40 PM

This particular event is unsettling and I think it goes to the current flashes inside eastern Ukraine.

If one thinks about it Putin is in fact ready to invade into eastern and southern Ukraine and it might be as Stan suggests around the 7 May and or around his scheduled coming public TV appearance where he will be taking open line calls from the Crimea and the Ukraine or a combination of the two.

1. There have bee no further calls from Putin to either Merkel and or Obama.
2. NATO has fully signaled via open source newspaper articles to Moscow that they have imagery, sigint and humint reporting clearly identifying what units are where, strengths, and unit compositions and those troops are well within 30kms from the border and they have been watching them since early Feb 2014.
3. This is important as Merkel was told by Putin they would start a withdrawal which in fact has absolutely not occurred which indicates he was lying to Merkel---Obama has said withdraw as has NATO---still no movement--all Russia statements are we are not going in nor are we threatening
4. Then the sudden outbreak of proRussian demos starting occurring this week almost as an excuse for an invasion.

Little unknown fact---while the rest of NATO drew down their armored forces and destroyed large numbers of tanks and APCs due to OCSE agreements also singed by Russia---Russia is still not in OCSE compliance and has not been since 2004---meaning they basically did not disarm and destroy their allotted number of tanks and APCs---and they have in violation if the INF developed a ground launched cruise missile which is nuclear ready.

Once an Army goes into attack array formations it is ether use or lose or as we say in military slang "fish or cut bait" as the attack formations will get bored and lose their edge.

This article via Interfax is a telling comment concerning the Russian ignoring of the OCSE which in the past they tended to adhere to which is a serious warning indicator.

Notice they are still trying to argue unilateral actions in Kosovo give them "rights" to annex Crimea. Not once has Russia ever admitted that a Slavic country was butchering the population in Kosovo nor have they admitted they blocked countless Kosovo statements by the UN SC.

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=3&id=495751

April 09, 2014 16:03 Daily activities by Russian troops on their national territory pose no threat to U.S., OSCE countries - Russian Foreign Ministry (Part 2)

MOSCOW. April 9 (Interfax) - Russia is not conducting any unusual or unplanned military activities on its territory in the area of the Ukrainian border, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

"The U.S. and Ukraine have no reasons for concerns. Russia has said many times that it is not conducting any unusual or unplanned activities significant in terms of military issues on its territory in the area of the Ukrainian border," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a commentary posted on its website.

"The daily activities by the Russian troops on its national territory do not threaten the security of the U.S. and other OSCE countries. The attempts to accuse Russia of beefing up its armed forces are groundless," the ministry said.

"Russia has refused to take part in the joint meeting of the Permanent Council and the OSCE Forum on Cooperation in the Sphere of Security called in Vienna on April 7 at the request of the U.S. and Ukraine in connection with their concerns about the activities by the Russian Armed Forces in the areas bordering on Ukraine," the document says. "We refused because there were no grounds for calling such a meeting and, consequently, to use the provisions of Chapter III of the Vienna Document on Confidence-Building and Security-Building Measures, which deal with the procedures for launching in the OSCE a mechanism of consultations on unusual military activities," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the lack of unusual military activities by the Russian Armed Forces "was convincingly confirmed by the results of international inspections on the Vienna Document and observation flights under the Open Skies Treaty conducted in the Russian Federation in March."

"On those grounds, we earlier declined the U.S. request for a bilateral meeting as part of the said mechanism of consultations until we received from the U.S. objective data on the location of Russian troops in amounts exceeding the maximum levels of reported and observed military activities as per the provisions of the Vienna Document," the commentary says.

"Simultaneously, we point out the statements made by the U.S. and other NATO countries and the NATO secretary-general on the plans to increase the U.S. and NATO armed forces in Eastern Europe, the Baltic and the Black Sea regions under the pretext of the events in Ukraine. We sent questions directly to NATO about that. In that situation, Russia did not see any point in meeting the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations halfway because they had launched an anti-Russian campaign in the OSCE, and refused to participate in the joint meeting of the Permanent Council and the OSCE Forum on Cooperation in the Sphere of Security, which was convened at their initiative," then document says.

"In this regard, we cannot help but recall that the 'high standards' of the realization of the Vienna Document and, specifically, the mechanism of consultations on unusual military activities were demonstrated by the U.S. and its allies in NATO in 1999 during a military action against Yugoslavia without the authorization of the UN Security Council. The Republic of Belarus then did not receive the information it had requested, and some countries did not respond to requests at all. Moreover, this step was for some reason negatively taken by our Western partners, despite the fact that all actions taken by Belarus were fully in line with the Vienna Document," the commentary says.

"We are calling on the U.S. and other member countries to stop using the OSCE tribune for fuelling tensions around Ukraine and begin constructive work to resolve the current crisis in Ukraine, normalize the situation and conduct a comprehensive constitutional reform to form a stable democratic system, with regard for the lawful interests of residents of all regions of the country," the ministry said.

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 02:52 PM

Firn---might have been correct in a number of his economic comments as it looks like the CB is losing money at an alarming rate even for a supposedly rich oil/gas producing country.

The more Putin stirs the pot in the Ukraine the more the money flees the country.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/04/09/world/europe/09reuters-ukraine-crisis-russia-outflows.html?ref=world&_r=0

Stan

04-09-2014, 04:26 PM

Hey Mark,

I hate to screw up your nuclear party, but seems they have come to terms and we will not have another Chernobyl this month :mad:

I'm convinced Putin has a login herein and has read your posts :eek:

I would, at the very least be concerned.

Take care dude, Stan

Stan,

I have no understanding of the psyche of Russians in general and Putin in particular but to me the key to how to deal with Russia revolves around whether they - Putin and the Russian people - would be prepared to commit national (Russian) suicide in a nuclear conflagration if they are not able to expand their borders and subjugate the peoples so incorporated.

Years of weakness and foreign policy indecisiveness by the US and a massive error of judgement by the Germans has given Putin and the Russians the idea that they can do what they want without fear of any opposition beyond verbal wailing and sanctions alkin to a slap on the wrist.

You need a White House that can stare down the Russians now... which you don't have. The combination of Obama/Biden/Kerry/Rice/Hagel is probably the most inept and pathetic combination in the history of the US.

Once this situation has been diffused then one can take steps to make sure Russia will never have the means to mount such and exercise again. Their oil and gas power needs to be dismantled.

Stan

04-09-2014, 05:12 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 06:36 PM

Outlaw,
Seems for the moment things may be on a reverse course.

Even the Baltic Russians (http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/memorandum-14-eesti-venekeelsed-elanikud-on-separatismi-vastu-me-ei-vaja-valjapoolt-kaitset.d?id=68408389) have openly stated that they do not require outside interference nor protection.

As 9 May closes, threats similar to every year mount.

Smoke and mirrors !

Stan----right now it is all about smoke and mirrors---Putin has to fish or cut bait and he will fish---the Russian economy is taking major hits as long as this drags out and economically he has to move. and am betting he then bunkers in for the long haul.

There is something inherently about the Ukraine that is driving him and maybe you probably understand it from your advantage point---in his core he truly believes the Ukraine is the birth place of Russia and the SU and he is not going to give that up.

What is interesting and maybe JMA has hit a nerve with some---there are indicators that the three letters are finally untracked after chasing jihadi's since 9/11 and having totally forgotten their tradecraft.

They are signaling via multiple routes they fully understand his moves and are moving now at a speed that even surprises me on a number of different fronts.

1. the three letters are going through the entire remains of the former president's records and are preparing via the Ukrainians corruption and state fraud charges for both inside the Ukraine as well as international and I am guessing they will release the records to cement a bad image in the international press for the Russians.
2. they have definitive evidence of Russian involvement in the current unrest in the east and south and have in a not to subtle way warned the Russians of the evidence
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-nuland-has-no-doubt-russians-involved-in-ukraine-unrest-342744.html
3. NATO is signaling a closer rebuild of the Ukrainian Army and officers
4. Ukraine is making international court movements via Sweden in order to block any Gazprom moves---this parallels the German /EU court moves against Gazprom for illegal activity in the EU to the tune of tens of millions of dollars--the EU could hang a 10% fine calculated in their 2013 earnings and it could go even into 2014 earnings

But in the end it is a race against time and I think the US is anticipating Putin moving by the latest the middle of May which as you know begins the draftee phase of the Russian Army training cycle.

Some in the US are saying he will not invade while he just wants influence---but he already has influence so I am not sure why they are so sure.

Excellent example of how the FSB is screwing up their spying efforts---one has to love social media.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-spy-ukraine-social-postings-/25327334.html

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 06:54 PM

That's a creative map, but it's also full of assumptions about how to create legitimized state borders. Are state boundaries legitimized through historical processes? Ethnic distribution? Geography? Law and mutual agreement? All of these would produce different boundaries for Eastern Europe. So really my interest is in asking what arrangement of borders would be the most conducive to peace and stability while also minimizing harm and injustice to the populations? I don't think the answer is in rebuilding the Russian Empire, but also I don't think there's any historical justification for inalienable borders either.

American Pride---you hit a stone wall with this statement.

"I don't think the answer is in rebuilding the Russian Empire, but also I don't think there's any historical justification for inalienable borders either."

In order to address European borders one would have to readdress the borders drawn over the last 200 years drawing into question Westphalia and in attempting to take into consideration all the various points you mention would keep a super computer at least five years in attempting to redraw a proposed set of borders.

That is why the Europeans are at unease with Putin's move---borders that were once assumed to be fixed in concrete since 1989 are being since Putin's move again questioned.

In say the Middle East which had boundaries drawn by the European colonial powers and the results of WW1 the super computer will have to take ten years to get just to a proposed map.

And this does not address the other 300 hot spots especially in Asia and Africa.

OUTLAW 09

04-09-2014, 07:06 PM

kaur

04-09-2014, 07:15 PM

Outlaw, good that you mentioned 1989. For example today one of the outstanding ideologues is Kurginjan, who has all the time fought for СССР.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Kurginyan

Prohhanov fights for the same thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Prokhanov

Look at this really crazy event "Russian parents congress" that took place year ago. President Putin (saw the fall of Berlin wall) and his head of administration participated. Kurginjans last speech is fantastic!

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uPDhHbGgdS8

Stan

04-09-2014, 07:22 PM

Stan---this is the smoke and mirrors--the Russians keep going back to the 21st of Feb Maidan agreements even though they never signed them and I have wondered in a couple of times.

While they keep pressuring the US that they "really want diplomacy" they are still slowly moving their troops forward----last week there were indicators that the troops were 50kms from the border this week's media releases are showing now only 30kms.

This is the mirrors piece----

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/08/while-russians-riot-in-ukraine-the-kremlin-talks-diplomacy.html

Outlaw,
Working this ass backwards with the last post first ;)

You are for the most part correct. They talk diplomacy and move their chess pieces around. But, there's no hiding from a satellite now a days. Or is there ?

Things however have not worked out the way Vova wanted. He never expected a combined voice on his borders in the Baltic States. Too late.
He never counted on financial assistance to the Ukraine in the promised amounts. He also porked up the scenario by shutting off gas in the Spring when it is rarely needed.

I'm an EOD tech and senior instructor and very retired in my ways.

Exactly how many clicks from one's border equates to aggression? We have Russian military bases less than 2 clicks away, have constant instances of Russian military aircraft flying through our airspace, have constant instances of disturbances from Russian citizens purportedly caught in local grievances coincidentally during major and significant Russian holidays or other events, and the ever present rhetoric.

That said, what's the threat ?

They are about to have a round table with NATO, their local nationals are being arrested and sent back to the border, and all those gas freaks are no longer interested.

Regards, Stan

omarali50

04-09-2014, 07:28 PM

since the great Russian soul has come up, here is an interesting piece from comrade John Reed: http://www.promacedonia.org/en/jr/jr_13.html

Stan

04-09-2014, 08:22 PM

Stan----right now it is all about smoke and mirrors---Putin has to fish or cut bait and he will fish---the Russian economy is taking major hits as long as this drags out and economically he has to move. and am betting he then bunkers in for the long haul.

Outlaw,
They have always surprised us with their ability to cope and spring is not a good time to influence enemies from desolate climates with sanctions. They can and will handle some sanctions well into November. They are also keen on our fiscal year facade. How many times do we, a so-called advanced society, need to show everyone how inept we are at concluding an annual budget? Pathetic! Have we concluded that Russian or African kleptocracy is far worse than our elected officials and their Sierra ?

There is something inherently about the Ukraine that is driving him and maybe you probably understand it from your advantage point---in his core he truly believes the Ukraine is the birth place of Russia and the SU and he is not going to give that up.

Ever read the book “Europe’s Last Frontier” ? Belarus fell and threw our diplomats out and Moldova is in Russia’s sights. The Ukraine was cool until their president got even greedier than was even possible. Time to pay the piper !

2. they have definitive evidence of Russian involvement in the current unrest in the east and south and have in a not to subtle way warned the Russians of the evidence
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-nuland-has-no-doubt-russians-involved-in-ukraine-unrest-342744.html.

The Baltic States warned them, “This is part of the plan and shut down your borders”. They should have listened. Who else should we then blame with years of Sierra and experience. Most people would gladly pay for that info.

3. NATO is signaling a closer rebuild of the Ukrainian Army and officers

We have been working with their military for years under the guise of NATO prep. It’s only now getting some high visibility and looks like a dog and pony show. We also like to take advantage of good press when the opportunity presents itself. You know how long it will take to train officers and NCOs. Next 5 years if we are lucky ?

4. Ukraine is making international court movements via Sweden in order to block any Gazprom moves---this parallels the German /EU court moves against Gazprom for illegal activity in the EU to the tune of tens of millions of dollars--the EU could hang a 10% fine calculated in their 2013 earnings and it could go even into 2014 earnings.

Sweden had the perfect chance of shutting down the pipeline to Germany. They actually still do have that capability. But it’s not Russia’s money and Vova could give a good Sierra.

But in the end it is a race against time and I think the US is anticipating Putin moving by the latest the middle of May which as you know begins the draftee phase of the Russian Army training cycle.

If Russia wants a parade, it will be Victory Day. As with almost every year, they have planted and planned unrest. We are quietly prepared however and little has happened since 2008.

Some in the US are saying he will not invade while he just wants influence---but he already has influence so I am not sure why they are so sure.

So why then does the USG have a problem recognizing his mental state ?

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 06:09 AM

Interesting when open source reporting in unclassified fashion matches now what NATO's Commander Breedlove is releasing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26940375

JMA

04-10-2014, 08:03 AM

Stan, its called 'deception'. Just when just about everyone thinks the threat has passed they will move.

What one needs is a 'deterrent'. Something that will make any move not worth the cost.

Obama has gone absent, Kerry is merely verbal, the Brits have nothing to say and Frau Merkel is sulking.

Now is the time for the Chinese to make a move.

Outlaw,
Seems for the moment things may be on a reverse course.

Even the Baltic Russians (http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/memorandum-14-eesti-venekeelsed-elanikud-on-separatismi-vastu-me-ei-vaja-valjapoolt-kaitset.d?id=68408389) have openly stated that they do not require outside interference nor protection.

As 9 May closes, threats similar to every year mount.

Smoke and mirrors !

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 01:06 PM

This comment makes one wonder just where the minds of Putin and Co. wonder off to theses days.

About four days ago Interfax carried a comment by Putin that stated basically the Crimea would not have occurred if the US/EU had discussed the Ukrainian association problem with Russian in the Fall of 2013.

Now today again via Interfax Putin is quoted as follows;

15:13 PUTIN: DECISION TO JOIN CRIMEA WAS MADE FOLLOWING SOCIOLOGICAL POLLS, WE DID NOT PLAN SUCH A TURN OF EVENTS INITIALLY

So does anyone have an earthly idea what he means when he refers to "sociological polls"----is he simply stating for the record we seemed to get our own opinion polling basically wrong but we moved anyway.

So maybe everything that has been said about Putin's moves must be revised to include the fact that he does international relations based on polling?

Must be a new Russian novel way of doing business.

mirhond

04-10-2014, 02:25 PM

since the great Russian soul has come up, here is an interesting piece from comrade John Reed: http://www.promacedonia.org/en/jr/jr_13.html

This report seems to be a little bit outdated, 98 years old, actually. :p
Now we have cookies and talk more about money than soul.

So does anyone have an earthly idea what he means when he refers to "sociological polls"----is he simply stating for the record we seemed to get our own opinion polling basically wrong but we moved anyway.
So maybe everything that has been said about Putin's moves must be revised to include the fact that he does international relations based on polling?
Must be a new Russian novel way of doing business.

@OUTLAW 09

I've learned from your posts that you are constantly thrilled, shocked, puzzled and awed by almost everything Putin/Russia does. Why so? Is it so hard for you to perceive the reality as it is? Is the world so brutal and uncomprehensive that you just can't handle it?

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 02:49 PM

This report seems to be a little bit outdated, 98 years old, actually. :p
Now we have cookies and talk more about money than soul.

@OUTLAW 09

I've learned from your posts that you are constantly thrilled, shocked, puzzled and awed by almost everything Putin/Russia does. Why so? Is it so hard for you to perceive the reality as it is? Is the world so brutal and uncomprehensive that you just can't handle it?

mirhond---missed you yesterday---by the way still awaiting a copy of your ID which you find X number of reasons why it cannot be attached. Or do you not have an ID that you would like to share with us?

By the way you did not answer the sociological polling question--it was actually a very simple question but again you found other things to say instead of a direct answer to the question ---and since you could not answer it I will let Putin himself answer it which he did later for Interfax.

One thing I have noticed about your comments since we are on the topic is that when direct questions are asked you make tap dancing a new art of conversation.

You tend to throw out statements and then amazingly you fail to response to others when they question your comments ---actually you tap dance gracefully when someone specifically makes a statement but hey that is the academic KGB way of doing business--never give an answer because you just might be held responsible and responsibility is just not in the KGB vocabulary is it not mirhond.

Again it is great to see a Russian leader leading his country from the "heart" that is so unique these days.

So as a Russian citizen are you not happy that your leader is unique in the world as he leads his country from the heart and he makes decisions based on "secret polling". Gives a citizen of Russian a real warm and fuzzy feeling that his interests are well taken care of does it not?

By the way you did compare Putin to Hitler and the NSDAP in one of your previous comments---are you sure you want that comment out in the public especially since we know what the term Nazi brings up for visions in Russian minds?

April 10, 2014 17:16 Decision to incorporate Crimea was made following sociological polls, it wasn't planned initially - Putin

NOVO-OGARYOVO. April 10 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the final decision on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia was made in regards to a sociological poll conducted in Crimea.

"I made my decisions after it became clear how people felt. We did not prepare for such events. We could imagine how people felt, but we didn't know it for a fact," Putin said during a meeting with All-Russia Popular Front activists.

"The first sociological polls, which, let's say directly, we conducted secretly, but whose outcome was fairly close to the real situation, made it clear that our line of behavior was right," Putin said.

Putin reiterated that the first sociological poll showed that 80% of the people of Crimea and even more people in Sevastopol wanted Crimea to join Russia. "That figure increased even more at the referendum, when the process began developing," Putin said, adding that this figure is amazing.

"If we didn't know that the situation was the way it was, we would not have acted the way we did, consistently and persistently," Putin said.

So mirhond---does now the Ukraine have to thank Putin for annexing Crimea because the Ukrainians did not have the same polling numbers and thus were totally uniformed apparently about feelings of the heart---come on mirhond really?

Noticed Putin did not include what the polling numbers were for the Tartars or were their votes simply lumped into the stuffed ballot boxes since they choose not to vote.

kaur

04-10-2014, 03:03 PM

Levada published yesterday long survey about Russians. Here is the graphic about Putin's popularity. In a separate comment Levada guy said that Putin's popularity rise has always connected with different wars (real (Chechen, Georgia, Crimea and gas wars) and conflicts (for example the Estonian bronze soldier episode). He said also that the influence lasts some months and then there must be new stimulus. Is this Putin's problem or we have problem with Russians' psyhychology? In January the popularity was all time low. What war next to satisfy audience?

Stan

04-10-2014, 03:12 PM

So does anyone have an earthly idea what he means when he refers to "sociological polls"----is he simply stating for the record we seemed to get our own opinion polling basically wrong but we moved anyway.

Outlaw,
In essence, the majority of inhabitants in Crimea voted for reunification.

We also had a sociological poll performed :D

Now, it seems, the EU will not be getting gas if the Ukraine doesn't pay its tab :rolleyes:

Putin warns European leaders (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_10/Putin-warns-European-keaders-of-looming-crisis-in-gas-supplies-to-EU-Kremlin-8807/) of looming crisis in gas supplies to EU

"The letter contains detailed description of the critical situation that developed against the backdrop of Ukraine’s growing debt for gas being supplied to it, as well as possible consequences for gas transit to Europe," he said.

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 03:24 PM

mirhond---since your previous comments on equating Putin/Hitler and the NSDAP seems to reflect a fondness for Nazism maybe you need to fully understand the new anti-Nazi law being passed by your own Russian leader who "leads with his heart" ---those comments might in fact to be in violation of the coming new law since you compared Putin to Hitler.

By the way maybe since you seem to be well informed---why do you not explain the deep Russian dislike of Nazi's when there are Russian nationalists who are close to being Nazi's in their statements and actions towards Jews in your own country.

The Russian Lower House has passed the first reading of a bill introducing prison sentences for the public justification of Nazism. The sponsors would like to sign it into law before May 9 – the anniversary of Russia’s victory in WWII.

The bill was approved unanimously on Friday.

“Our country has not simply defended itself. We have defended the whole world from Nazism. Our people suffered the greatest casualties in this war. For us, the rehabilitation of Nazism will always be a crime against our country and our people. Rehabilitation of Nazism is not only a shot fired at the past and mocking millions of victims. It is also a shot fired at the future, an instigation for new crimes against peace and security, ”one of the main sponsors of the bill, the head of the Lower House Committee for Security Irina Yarovaya said as she presented the bill to MPs.

Earlier, Yarovaya has told the press that the urge for such a law is especially evident today in times of the violent political crisis in Ukraine launched and supported by radicals and neo-Nazis. “Ukraine is a living witness of what can be the result of such a policy, when Nazism is standing tall and manifests itself not only through propaganda but through actual crimes,” the Interfax news agency quoted the lawmaker as saying.

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 03:59 PM

Outlaw,
In essence, the majority of inhabitants in Crimea voted for reunification.

We also had a sociological poll performed :D

Now, it seems, the EU will not be getting gas if the Ukraine doesn't pay its tab :rolleyes:

Stan---not so sure Putin and Gazprom really want to pull the gas trigger as the EU Anti-Trust Commission is sitting on a major charge against Gazprom that has been decided on and they are just waiting to inform Gazprom of the total amount due on their charges which will be 10% of their 2013 earnings and under EU anti-trust violations they can go back to 2012 and forward to 2014 in their 10% charges which could amount to over 34B Euros in owed fines.

So I am not so sure Putin wants to pull that particular trigger---the top dog for Gazprom recently stated gas is a product not a weapon I think out of the fear of the anti trust charges.

The investigation was extensive and thorough and Gazprom knows they are on the hook as they have not been "fighting" it as a company being under these types of charges would normally do---they got caught with their hands in the till so to speak and they know it.

Think these fines will be part of a future EU sanction hit or at least the EU is alluding to that in their Gazprom conversations.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/eu-gazprom-idUSL6N0HT0KK20131003

kaur

04-10-2014, 04:16 PM

Two tabels. First compares Hitler to Stalin and it was published some years ago by Moscow journal Snob. Second tabel was published this year by Prohkanov and compares Stalin to Putin.
Last week there was column in Russian very official daily Izvestia were was defined good Hitler. The logic was that reader must separate Hitler until 1939 and after 1939. The annexation of Austria, Memel, Sudetenland (he accomplished what Bismarck couldn't) without blood drop would make him big man in his country's history. Later he started to make mistakes.

AmericanPride

04-10-2014, 04:17 PM

By the way maybe since you seem to be well informed---why do you not explain the deep Russian dislike of Nazi's when there are Russian nationalists who are close to being Nazi's in their statements and actions towards Jews in your own country.

That's an easy question to answer and there's nothing sinister about it. By 1941, the Bolsheviks had their fair share of enemies at home and abroad - between the civil war, collectivization, the purges, and so on, there were plenty of discontents, particularly within the repressed nationalities and in some remnants of the White exiles. Even before the Nazi invasion, there were some within the exile camps that viewed Germany as an opportunity to destroy the Bolshevik regime. And when the invasion finally started, before the mass killings and deliberate exterminations campaigns swept up millions of people, White exiles, ethnic nationalists, and other anti-communists militants flocked to the German banner. They eventually added Soviet POWs to their ranks. Tens of thousands joined. Some within the Nazi government even entertained the idea of establishing independent countries using these armies. Hitler eventually dismissed these ideas, although many of the soldiers remained in German service due to the manpower demands of the war, but between Hitler's opposition and Nazi repression, the credibility and political position of these Russian forces became untenable.

Something like 25 million Soviets died during World War II and Russia suffers today still from the population decimation as a result. And something like 80% of German military casualties were incurred on the Eastern Front - so there is some truth to the idea that (1) the USSR suffered the most at the hands of Nazi Germany and (2) that the USSR also inflicted the most damage on Germany. I'm personally of the opinion that after the failure of Operation Barbarossa, Nazi Germany was destined to lose anyway.

As for the neo-Nazis in Russia today; neo-nazism is nothing at all like its classical predecessor. You will find neo-nazi elements in every country that the original Nazis had planned to destroy. The definition of "Aryan" has expanded to include virtually all white people. Ironically, it has become more inclusive :rolleyes:.

Stan

04-10-2014, 06:04 PM

Stan---not so sure Putin and Gazprom really want to pull the gas trigger as the EU Anti-Trust Commission is sitting on a major charge against Gazprom that has been decided on and they are just waiting to inform Gazprom of the total amount due on their charges which will be 10% of their 2013 earnings and under EU anti-trust violations they can go back to 2012 and forward to 2014 in their 10% charges which could amount to over 34B Euros in owed fines.

Yep, sounds bad but looking at Notices, Investigations and Trade Defense (http://trade.ec.europa.eu/tdi/notices.cfm), China has more worries than that of Russia.

It would be interesting to know just how many times the EU threatened Russia with sanctions and fines, and, just how many times Russia actually paid, or, paid attention.

These are not exactly strongly worded phrases I would use on Putin :rolleyes:

From your link (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/eu-gazprom-idUSL6N0HT0KK20131003)

but we have now moved to the phase of preparing a statement of objections

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters the Commission planned to take action by the end of the year.

Gazprom ... could stave off a potential fine by offering concessions to settle the case.

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 07:30 PM

That's an easy question to answer and there's nothing sinister about it. By 1941, the Bolsheviks had their fair share of enemies at home and abroad - between the civil war, collectivization, the purges, and so on, there were plenty of discontents, particularly within the repressed nationalities and in some remnants of the White exiles. Even before the Nazi invasion, there were some within the exile camps that viewed Germany as an opportunity to destroy the Bolshevik regime. And when the invasion finally started, before the mass killings and deliberate exterminations campaigns swept up millions of people, White exiles, ethnic nationalists, and other anti-communists militants flocked to the German banner. They eventually added Soviet POWs to their ranks. Tens of thousands joined. Some within the Nazi government even entertained the idea of establishing independent countries using these armies. Hitler eventually dismissed these ideas, although many of the soldiers remained in German service due to the manpower demands of the war, but between Hitler's opposition and Nazi repression, the credibility and political position of these Russian forces became untenable.

Something like 25 million Soviets died during World War II and Russia suffers today still from the population decimation as a result. And something like 80% of German military casualties were incurred on the Eastern Front - so there is some truth to the idea that (1) the USSR suffered the most at the hands of Nazi Germany and (2) that the USSR also inflicted the most damage on Germany. I'm personally of the opinion that after the failure of Operation Barbarossa, Nazi Germany was destined to lose anyway.

As for the neo-Nazis in Russia today; neo-nazism is nothing at all like its classical predecessor. You will find neo-nazi elements in every country that the original Nazis had planned to destroy. The definition of "Aryan" has expanded to include virtually all white people. Ironically, it has become more inclusive :rolleyes:.

AP---there is though and interesting aspect that even Russian side steps---the secret agreements between Stalin and Hitler in 1938, 1939 and again in 1941 that gave both sides spheres of influence and divided all of eastern Europe between themselves.

So the motto of sleeping with the devil is then what balanced by claiming after 1941 we got it wrong thus all Nazi's are all bad.

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 07:37 PM

Yep, sounds bad but looking at Notices, Investigations and Trade Defense (http://trade.ec.europa.eu/tdi/notices.cfm), China has more worries than that of Russia.

It would be interesting to know just how many times the EU threatened Russia with sanctions and fines, and, just how many times Russia actually paid, or, paid attention.

These are not exactly strongly worded phrases I would use on Putin :rolleyes:

From your link (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/eu-gazprom-idUSL6N0HT0KK20131003)

Stan---what Gazprom is not wanting to admit to is that the EU anti trust commission is built on the German model---which allows the anti trust guys to define the violation and the fines---once that is done the companies have no legal recourse---they can beg a review but not a single EU company has avoided the fines.

The EU has been waiting for Putin to make his gas moves before they pull the trigger as a negotiation tactic.

The Slovaks have asked the EU for legal determination on reverse shipping of gas to the Ukraine---meaning will they be in violation of Gazproms contracts and liable for penalties.

Initial ruling has been no violations as they view many of the Gazproms contracts to be in violation of anti trust regulations for the EU and Gazprom has been informed of their determinations.

So yes Russia could attempt to avoid but in the end Gazprom will pay as the delivery contracts foresee penalties if Gazprom does not maintain the gas pressure flow of a minimum of 62%.

What is more interesting is that in the recent Interfax press release of several days ago the Russian FM threatened the West if they even thought about reverse gas flows to the Ukraine---then the anti trust guys voiced a few words and then the Russian threats went silent.

What is also interesting is that the reverse gas flow plans came from E.ON and RWE pushed by the German government and now Slovakia is starting the pipe check processes needed.

OUTLAW 09

04-10-2014, 07:56 PM

There is an old saying "the revolution is eating it's children".

This link is telling concerning as it goes to the core of the Russian form of nationalism that is slowly getting out of control.

It is hard to govern a diverse country when the country rests on four pillars 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) the oligarchs and 4) the Russian Mob it is hard to maintain one's focus as a leader---that might explain why Putin's recent press releases seem to be all over the map.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/reuters-group-of-deputies-wants-gorbachev-investigated-over-soviet-break-up-342953.html

Stan

04-10-2014, 08:05 PM

Stan---what Gazprom is not wanting to admit to is that the EU anti trust commission is built on the German model---which allows the anti trust guys to define the violation and the fines---once that is done the companies have no legal recourse---they can beg a review but not a single EU company has avoided the fines.

The EU has been waiting for Putin to make his gas moves before they pull the trigger as a negotiation tactic.

The Slovaks have asked the EU for legal determination on reverse shipping of gas to the Ukraine---meaning will they be in violation of Gazproms contracts and liable for penalties.

Initial ruling has been no violations as they view many of the Gazproms contracts to be in violation of anti trust regulations for the EU and Gazprom has been informed of their determinations.

So yes Russia could attempt to avoid but in the end Gazprom will pay as the delivery contracts foresee penalties if Gazprom does not maintain the gas pressure flow of a minimum of 62%.

What is more interesting is that in the recent Interfax press release of several days ago the Russian FM threatened the West if they even thought about reverse gas flows to the Ukraine---then the anti trust guys voiced a few words and then the Russian threats went silent.

What is also interesting is that the reverse gas flow plans came from E.ON and RWE pushed by the German government and now Slovakia is starting the pipe check processes needed.

Outlaw,
I still have the very same question

It would be interesting to know just how many times the EU threatened Russia with sanctions and fines, and, just how many times Russia actually paid, or, paid attention.

Moving forward... Let's for the sake of argument say the EU backs Putin into a corner. The very next day following a terrorist attack and the pipeline is screwed and repairs could take years.

I'm unaware of a single instance where Russia paid her bills or backed down from Western threats.

JMA

04-10-2014, 08:15 PM

Outlaw,
In essence, the majority of inhabitants in Crimea voted for reunification.

Stan, yes and no.

It appears a significant number of these 'inhabitants' of Crimea are Russian servicemen, their families (one supposes) and techical and support staff for the naval base... and any other Russian who happened to be in Crimea at the time.

These people would be (should be) allowed to vote in a Crimea referendum?

AmericanPride

04-10-2014, 08:30 PM

AP---there is though and interesting aspect that even Russian side steps---the secret agreements between Stalin and Hitler in 1938, 1939 and again in 1941 that gave both sides spheres of influence and divided all of eastern Europe between themselves.

So the motto of sleeping with the devil is then what balanced by claiming after 1941 we got it wrong thus all Nazi's are all bad.

I don't think Stalin understood the intention of Hitler and the Nazi Party vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. Even as frontier posts and intelligence agents reported the German build-up on the border, Stalin dismissed the threat. In fact, he had one the generals of Army intelligence shot over this disagreement, and wrote a personal letter to Hitler asking for clarification, to which Hitler replied that the military forces were resting in preparation for more campaigns in the West (against the UK). And frankly, I don't think anyone could have predicted the massive devastation planned for the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany - population transfers, genocide, slave labor. World War II did not reach its horrible zenith until the Nazis lunged into the East.

kaur

04-10-2014, 08:39 PM

Comment to Levada graphic.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Russians Back Putin on Crimea but Aren’t Ready to Suffer the Consequences, Gudkov Says

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/04/window-on-eurasia-russians-back-putin.html

Stan

04-10-2014, 08:40 PM

Stan, yes and no.

It appears a significant number of these 'inhabitants' of Crimea are Russian servicemen, their families (one supposes) and techical and support staff for the naval base... and any other Russian who happened to be in Crimea at the time.

These people would be (should be) allowed to vote in a Crimea referendum?

Mark,
Yes, I do realize that the whole enchilada was rigged. I was referring more to the Russian definition of what a sociological poll meant.

There are of course an infinite number of versions, with ITAR-TASS (http://en.itar-tass.com/world/723843) and the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26652058) not to mention at least 50 more wire feeds, upon feeds.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:14 AM

Outlaw,
I still have the very same question

Moving forward... Let's for the sake of argument say the EU backs Putin into a corner. The very next day following a terrorist attack and the pipeline is screwed and repairs could take years.

I'm unaware of a single instance where Russia paid her bills or backed down from Western threats.

Stan---am making a difference between demands on Russia itself and demands on a Russian company tied to the WTO and EU and international legal delivery contracts. Have noticed that Russian companies definitely pay attention to their contracts and what they must do in order to do business say in the EU. In the case of the EU anti trust side they will request that payments to be made by any EU country or company be paid first to the EU and the EU will notify Gazprom that the following is still owed---if they balk and do not deliver then the fines go higher and they are then in violation of their own contracts and liable for further penalties.

Yesterday something came up on both the Kiev Post or on Interfax that indicates a potential issue covered by the anti trust side investigations---meaning is the delivered amount actually accurate as per delivery contract.

The Ukrainians are discovering after measuring their strategic gas storage which is only fed by Gazprom that they are 13B cubic meters short of what the delivered amount stated by Gazprom.

This was a point also in the anti trust charges---it took the EU over two years of intensive pipe deliveries investigations to see this type of shortages in other countries especially in the former eastern countries.

22:12 Ukraine cannot trace missing 13 Bln cu m of natural gas - PM

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:20 AM

Comment to Levada graphic.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/04/window-on-eurasia-russians-back-putin.html

kaur--a really good article on Russian internal polling---these two paragraphs stand out and maybe the author mirhond should respond to them in his own way.

But while they may be pleased with the idea that annexing Crimea returns to Russia the status of a great power, the majority, Gudkov continues, are “not ready to pay for what is taking place.” They are willing to see force used – but only on condition that no one will respond to Russia’s use of force with its own.

Other scholars, Vlasenko says, agree with Gudkov’s assessment. Sociologist Boris Dubin says that the Kremlin has managed to convince Russians that what is going in Ukraine is “’not about us.’” Historian Nikita Sokolov says that the Russian regime now is playing on the old idea of “Orthodoxy, Autocracy and Nationality,” something that contributes to a loss of a sense of reality.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:24 AM

Seems the Russian Foreign Ministry has awoke to a new form of sanctions and in Interfax sent out the following with the 21:53 release highlighted in red and in caps which is a warning press release.

It is dawning on the Russian leadership that money laundering and criminal organization membership can in fact be worth an international arrest warrant being issued especially since most of the oligarchs are tied to the Russian mob and launder money on a regular basis.

From Interfax yesterday:
http://www.interfax.com/news.asp?y=2014&m=4&d=11

22:04 Threat of Russians being detained on U.S. requests up amid sanctions - Russian Foreign Ministry

21:53 FOREIGN MINISTRY RECOMMENDS RUSSIANS NOT TO GO TO COUNTRIES WITH MUTUAL EXTRADITION TREATIES WITH THE U.S., IF SUSPICIONS EXIST THAT U.S. LAW ENFORCEMENT AUTHORITIES HAVE ISSUES WITH THEM

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:40 AM

Stan---back to the gas thing---Putin fired out a Russian letter demanding that the EU talk with Russia about the Ukrainian gas problems.

What he does not realize is that with every threat-- internally EU countries have already started the search for replacement supplies and from what I have read the gas amounts needed can in fact be achieved through a number of different source, fracking is being revived as a necessity and the gas drilling in several sites in Germany shows strong gas deposits.

All he is doing is in the mid to long term cutting the earnings of Gazprom and in the end hitting a two raw resource country extremely hard.

http://euobserver.com/economic/123820

JMA

04-11-2014, 09:03 AM

The very next day following a terrorist attack and the pipeline is screwed and repairs could take years.

One sincerely hopes that Kerry has constantly expressed his (the US) understanding of how deeply concerned the Russians must be over the vulnerability of their various pipelines.

Yes, as you say the Russian economy will take a massive hit if significant damage is caused to the Russian pipelines.

Just letting my mind run free I would think that the careful application of special forces demolitions could cause the Russians bid headaches... like instead of having 40,000 troops 'camping' on the Ukraine border they would have to be strung out along the pipelines in a desperate attempt to prevent sabotage.

Hmmm... oner mans vulnerablity is another's opportunity, yes?

Someone should tell Frau Merkel to quickly make a new plan for gas imports ;)

JMA

04-11-2014, 09:40 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 12:13 PM

Well the energy dependence on Russia is a bed German and the EU made for themselves. A disastrous strategic error of judgement.

Yes clearly the idea they had that Russia needed the income from sales as much as they needed the oil/gas was dangerously simplistic.

Should they have assessed that Putin - who appears to be on the edge of insanity (as Frau merkel recently found out) - was unlikely to prove to be a stable and reliable commercial partner?

Another example of gross incompetence.

JMA---you know what is really surprising is the Putin somehow forgot just how the Russian economy is tied into globalization.

If you look at this threats being carried by Interfax/TASS/Russian TV one might think he knows he is sitting on the long lever and has the ultimate power advantage---but in reality he is getting economically hit every day this thing drags on---ever time there is a riot somehow in eastern Ukraine the Rubel losses ground and the capital flight out of the country is now at 100B headed to the 150B mark the worst since about 2008/9.

If one takes the Interfax press releases at say face value and read between the lines on their economic, business and central bank statements Russia is in a deepening recession of their own making, economic development will be at zero and is will be worse for 2015.

So did he really think it through or is he really dangerous in the fact that he followed his "heart and emotions" and coupled with nuclear weapons makes him really really dangerous.

Interesting article on how Putin was able to take Russian into a recession when the rest of the world is recovering even including the emerging economies which Russia is.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/11/flex-muscle-spending-has-left-putin-s-russia-in-an-economic-freeze-frame.html

AmericanPride

04-11-2014, 02:34 PM

Historian Nikita Sokolov says that the Russian regime now is playing on the old idea of “Orthodoxy, Autocracy and Nationality,” something that contributes to a loss of a sense of reality.

This is not surprising if we accept the narrative I presented earlier of the Russian state as an imperial one as opposed to a Westphalian one. Does that make Moscow elites "[lose] a sense of reality" or does that mean that the West does not understand 'reality' as seen from the Russian perspective? Frankly, I think dismissing Russian actions and statements without critical analysis leads to a "[loss] of a sense of reality" on the part of Western commentators.

Should they have assessed that Putin - who appears to be on the edge of insanity (as Frau merkel recently found out) - was unlikely to prove to be a stable and reliable commercial partner?

Putin is a "stable and reliable" partner. He's actions are very predictable when one actually attempts to understand the incentives to which he responds with the greatest sensitivity and the mechanisms through which he exercises his responses. The fact that Washington, et al is constantly surprised is not an indicator of Putin's reliability or stability but a condemnation of the narrow ideological lens through which the West views Russia.

JMA---you know what is really surprising is the Putin somehow forgot just how the Russian economy is tied into globalization.

I think it is more surprising that it is assumed Putin is so ignorant as to "just [forget] how the Russian economy is tied into globalization".

davidbfpo

04-11-2014, 02:43 PM

From the BBC, rather amusing:
A man who says he was injured in ongoing protests in Ukraine seems to have appeared on two Russian TV channels claiming to be two different people - a pro-Russia activist in one report and an anti-Russia protester in another.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26986657

JMA

04-11-2014, 03:02 PM

Putin is a "stable and reliable" partner. He's actions are very predictable when one actually attempts to understand the incentives to which he responds with the greatest sensitivity and the mechanisms through which he exercises his responses. The fact that Washington, et al is constantly surprised is not an indicator of Putin's reliability or stability but a condemnation of the narrow ideological lens through which the West views Russia.

I probably should have used the word 'rational'.

Clearly Germany and the EU saw the perceived interdependence of the supply and demand of Russian oil and gas as a guarantee of stability. A massive miscalculation.

As far as the US is concerned I don't expect them to get it correct and the CIA getting it wrong again comes as no surprise.

OK so once again we see a massive cock-up... where to from here? How does one reign Putin in?

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 03:32 PM

This is not surprising if we accept the narrative I presented earlier of the Russian state as an imperial one as opposed to a Westphalian one. Does that make Moscow elites "[lose] a sense of reality" or does that mean that the West does not understand 'reality' as seen from the Russian perspective? Frankly, I think dismissing Russian actions and statements without critical analysis leads to a "[loss] of a sense of reality" on the part of Western commentators.

Putin is a "stable and reliable" partner. He's actions are very predictable when one actually attempts to understand the incentives to which he responds with the greatest sensitivity and the mechanisms through which he exercises his responses. The fact that Washington, et al is constantly surprised is not an indicator of Putin's reliability or stability but a condemnation of the narrow ideological lens through which the West views Russia.

I think it is more surprising that it is assumed Putin is so ignorant as to "just [forget] how the Russian economy is tied into globalization".

American Pride---if Putin is not so ignorant of globalization then why would a leader knowingly drive his own economy deeper into recession and especially a potential recession that will last for up to five years if further sanctions are imposed.

Putin who is an ethnic nationalist---at what point does the personal nationalism overtake reality? Putin has four pillars he has to work with 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) the oligarchs, and 4) the Russian mob and they all have competing wishes and desires---getting a unified message out is becoming difficult for him.

Note: He has not called Merkel since his "promise" of pulling troops back from the border was revealed to be basically false and he has not called Obama in awhile---silence for him is unusual as I think everything he is proposing to the West is not gaining traction and he needs traction---there is an old communist saying out of the 30s---"if we are not moving forward even in millimeters then we are failing".

Yes one is rich and has constant income due to raw resources ie gas and oil---but as the West goes to more sanctions even that income cannot be counted on to continue in the same amounts for the next five years especially when they are actually pushing the EU to get out of the Russian oil and gas business. Russia cannot build enough pipelines to China to compensate the loss of the EU besides the Chinese tend to bargain better and never pay more than 120 USD vs the 485 USD Russia is trying to get from the Ukraine.

Russia has throttled back their move to privatize a number of industries due to their current bank financial problems and capital outflows and Russian companies are finding it harder to get foreign financing as American banks are now double and triple checking their own liabilities under the sanctions.

Russia has today now started asking all overseas foreign banks to let them know what Russians citizens have stored in their foreign accounts---kind of sounds like they are chasing money now.

Which is unusual for an economy that claims to have over 500B in foreign currency assets.

So I still question the "sanity" behind the ignorance---we an take the economic conditions a step further and argue that there has been a series of products banned by Russia under alleged agricultural disease control measures while others will argue it is in fact due to Russian counter sanctions designed to hurt the former eastern countries, but again in the end Russian consumers are facing an extreme shortage of potatoes and pork and or the prices are at levels not seen before in Moscow.

So again does Russia/Putin fully understand the deep hole economically they have dug themselves into?

I would argue that Putin or better yet Russia does in fact tends to hold to legally binding contracts but Putin has been at first threatening to change those and or has changed those contracts or outright argued they no longer exist and or he will not hold to them ie shut gas off then suddenly late this afternoon he backtracks and changes his original statement when he is reminded of the legality of those contracts.

Goes back to the Comrade Stalin comment he is reported to have made in the 30s---"there comes a time when a country's and or a person's life that they will have to change/cancel/ignore contracts if they no longer fit."

Or do they in the "sanity" of the moment judge the gaining via imperialist moves of new territory far outweighs the potential destruction of their own economy.

It is interesting that all the economic threat comments coming from both Putin and the Russian Foreign Minister are actually being met with a "ho hum" from the EU---as the first wave of fear of losing gas shipments has turned into we can overcome the issue so let's see what else Putin can manage to come up with. The economic fear is gone from the EU side--the Russia side seems to be in panic mode if one reads their constant stream of press releases for internal consumption.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 04:05 PM

From the BBC, rather amusing:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26986657

David---have been saying for awhile---their current mis/disinformation campaign is worthy of a doctorial thesis.

Have never seen in the last ten years such a massive campaign ---even after Georgia in 2008---think though they are having a hard time themselves keeping the campaign going in the right/correct fashion and contradictions are being fully seen---but it does not seem to bother them---maybe they get paid on volume not accuracy.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 04:09 PM

Looks like a not to subtle let's intimidate you today activity by the Russian Navy towards the Baltic States out of Kaliningrad as a counter to the increased NATO air activities.

Have actually been surprised Putin has not brought up complaints against the NATO countries currently surrounding Kaliningrad because of the statement he made recently in the Duma speech---"he will never allow NATO to have troops stationed near the Crimea border especially facing the Black sea Fleet."

So I guess the Russians view missile firing exercises in territorial waters of another country as common everyday events.

http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/66649/lithuania-responses-to-russian-military-ships-interference-in-its-economic-zone-201466649/

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 04:23 PM

American Pride----if one looks at Putin's many statements being released out today by Interfax and TASS he is all over the place with his comments.

He chides the US for responding to a letter he sends to 18 EU countries asking for a meeting on the Ukrainian gas issues---why does he respond like that---it is as if he feels he is equal to the entire EU and or he is attempting to split the EU from the US and it is going nowhere thus one is starting to see his frustration growing.

Then this over Interfax today:

April 11, 2014 18:53 U.S. promise to give bank guarantees as part of Ukraine aid means no real aid - Putin

NOVO-OGARYOVO. April 11 (Interfax) - The United States' proposal to provide guarantees for banks as part of its $1 billion aid for Ukraine in the absence of the banks prepared to carry this out, means there is no aid at all, Russian President Vladimir Putin said

"Our U.S. partners have reacted negatively to our proposal, and it is very strange that it is happening that way.
He is referencing I am assuming his letter to the 18 EU countries.

As you know, they said they are ready to provide $1 billion, not as loans but as guarantees. What are these guarantees? The guarantees for those banks that would be ready to finance, there are no such banks and, therefore, no aid either," Putin said at a Security Council session on Friday.

The situation is very strange, he reiterated.

"This raises our legitimate concern," the president said.
This sentence is an interesting one as he does not state what his "legitimate concern" is anywhere in the released comments.

Stan

04-11-2014, 04:54 PM

One sincerely hopes that Kerry has constantly expressed his (the US) understanding of how deeply concerned the Russians must be over the vulnerability of their various pipelines.

Mark,
I was thinking that Putin would sabotage his pipelines.

The Americans, under the current administration would never think of something so creative, yet alone even perform such a diabolical act :D

Stan

04-11-2014, 04:59 PM

Yesterday something came up on both the Kiev Post or on Interfax that indicates a potential issue covered by the anti trust side investigations---meaning is the delivered amount actually accurate as per delivery contract.

The Ukrainians are discovering after measuring their strategic gas storage which is only fed by Gazprom that they are 13B cubic meters short of what the delivered amount stated by Gazprom.

This was a point also in the anti trust charges---it took the EU over two years of intensive pipe deliveries investigations to see this type of shortages in other countries especially in the former eastern countries.

22:12 Ukraine cannot trace missing 13 Bln cu m of natural gas - PM

Outlaw,
Certainly a good point and a sore point. It wasn't long ago that Russia accused the Ukraine of "milking" gas from the pipeline to Europe.

Not too far fetched eh ?

So, who screwed who first :eek:

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:11 PM

I probably should have used the word 'rational'.

Clearly Germany and the EU saw the perceived interdependence of the supply and demand of Russian oil and gas as a guarantee of stability. A massive miscalculation.

As far as the US is concerned I don't expect them to get it correct and the CIA getting it wrong again comes as no surprise.

OK so once again we see a massive cock-up... where to from here? How does one reign Putin in?

Mark,
We don't actually have an energy security policy. If we did, I hope and doubt it would have fallen under the control of the CIA. C'mon already :D

We are at no great risk, have reserves, and don't really care. We also cannot send LPG to anyone :(

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:16 PM

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:27 PM

As you know, they said they are ready to provide $1 billion, not as loans but as guarantees. What are these guarantees? The guarantees for those banks that would be ready to finance, there are no such banks and, therefore, no aid either," Putin said at a Security Council session on Friday.

The situation is very strange, he reiterated.

"This raises our legitimate concern," the president said.
This sentence is an interesting one as he does not state what his "legitimate concern" is anywhere in the released comments.

Outlaw,
It's a bailout guarantee and there is no less than 18 billion promised.

Simple but complicated and designed to avert bankruptcy for a crisis-hit country. Been doing it since the 70s.

We sell you a widget that costs a gazillion dollars with accessorial charges, which funds our witch hunts and does not cost the tax payer a thin dime.

This is way too easy and nothing that Putin could ever imagine :D

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 05:29 PM

JMA---you might like this article.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/11/exclusive-key-general-splits-with-obama-over-ukraine.html

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:31 PM

JMA---you might like this article.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/11/exclusive-key-general-splits-with-obama-over-ukraine.html

Breedlove, a four star Air Force general, was careful not to tell members of Congress anything that directly undermined the authority of the Commander-in-Chief during his March briefings.

I reckon he just saved his retirement !

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 05:33 PM

Outlaw,
It's a bailout guarantee and there is no less than 18 billion promised.

Simple but complicated and designed to avert bankruptcy for a crisis-hit country. Been doing it since the 70s.

We sell you a widget that costs a gazillion dollars with accessorial charges, which funds our witch hunts and does not cost the tax payer a thin dime.

This is way too easy and nothing that Putin could ever imagine :D

Stan---this is the point of positing this one---it is as if Putin does not understand the finer mechanics of the big wide world of banks and financial bailouts.

The Russians simply pour in pure money and cannot seem to fathom the idea of leveraging.

So maybe they are not so globalization savvy.

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:35 PM

Stan---this is the point of positing this one---it is as if Putin does not understanding the finer mechanics of the big wide world of banks and ifnancila bailouts.

The Russians simply pour in pure money and cannot seem to fathom the idea of leveraging.

So maybe they are not so globalization savvy.

Could be the mafia doesn't do guarantees :eek:

I wait with baited breath for a gas leak :D

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 05:37 PM

I reckon he just saved his retirement !

Stan--like actually the macho of this particular Air Force Commander who seems to both see the problem and understands how to demonstrate strength without going overboard and he is getting good marks from fellow NATO officers.

By the way commercial satellite coverage is showing no drawback inclinations on the Russians part.

Stan

04-11-2014, 05:38 PM

Stan--like actually the macho of this particular Air Force Commander who seems to both see the problem and understands how to demonstrate strength without going overboard and he is getting good marks from fellow NATO officers.

By the way commercial satellite coverage is showing no drawback inclinations on the Russians part.

Got a link dude ? :cool:

PS. You know what the Army thinks about the AF !

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 05:44 PM

Outlaw,
Certainly a good point and a sore point. It wasn't long ago that Russia accused the Ukraine of "milking" gas from the pipeline to Europe.

Not too far fetched eh ?

So, who screwed who first :eek:

Stan---if one goes back to the milking incident the main dude in charge of the Ukrainian gas company was appointed under the old president and is the one who fled leaving behind 42 kilos of gold bars and 5M in US cash in his home.

Guess his travel money was to heavy in the end to carry in his pockets when he pulled out and headed East.

Our development of a counter threat finance analysis capability during the last ten years for AQ/Iran is truly coming into play with the ability to do post forensics on just where did the money go---noticed in a Philippine newspaper article they have offered the Ukraine their expertise on how to build a team to track the money---if in book form someday it would be a bestseller.

The game of the missing gas reminds me of the shell game they play here on the streets of Berlin by Romanians---under which shell is the pea in this case---the gas.

The milking of gas is relatively easy as most delivery contracts demand a varying line pressure of 61 to 63% at all times so if pushing at say 63% out of Minsk it is coming in at say Bonn at 61% the delivery level is within parameters and no one cares but where did the 2% go that started out in say Minsk and as it transitioned the Ukraine it was say 62%. So 1% lost in Belarus and another 1% between the Ukraine and Germany.

And as they say 1% of a really large sum is not chum change --then what is 2%?

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:01 PM

Got a link dude ? :cool:

PS. You know what the Army thinks about the AF !

Stan--was cruising a number of sites---will go back and try to find it.

Yes I know what they think but on occasions even the AF especially this 4star gets it right---even JMA might like what he was pushing for---and for a change a 4star who understands the use of the military card in soft power.

If I remember it correctly he was not the first choice for the position---wasn't the Marine 4star (was previously in AFG) due the position before he took a public hit due to former General P and his escapades?

Stan

04-11-2014, 06:15 PM

Yes I know what they think but on occasions even the AF especially this 4star gets it right---even JMA might like what he was pushing for---and for a change a 4star who understands the use of the military card in soft power.

Outlaw,
isn't soft power reserved for our State buds ?

If I remember it correctly he was not the first choice for the position---wasn't the Marine 4star (was previously in AFG) due the position before he took a public hit due to former General P and his escapades?

You're correct, he was not the first choice. But I recall the Marine General citing family problems as a reason for his personal withdrawal.

Hey, whatever.

I don't get off on AF what evers, don't like them, can't count on them when the Sierra hits the fan.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:16 PM

Got a link dude ? :cool:

PS. You know what the Army thinks about the AF !

Stan---this link is for photos up to 27 March-large number some of which were also released by Breedlove/NATO--still searching for the latest link.

http://graphics.wsj.com/russian-forces-near-ukraine/?mod=rusgraphic

Breedlove is AF and understands the use of ISR---it is for me amazing that a US 4star takes the unprecedented move to use open source and good quality imagery photos to inform Putin exactly where his own Army is located.

A new high in international relations---having to tell the Russians where their own mobilized troops were located.

The Russian response was interesting as they tried to claim the photos were from an earlier exercise so therefore fakes so the commercial company provided before and after shots.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:49 PM

Outlaw,
isn't soft power reserved for our State buds ?

You're correct, he was not the first choice. But I recall the Marine General citing family problems as a reason for his personal withdrawal.

Hey, whatever.

I don't get off on AF what evers, don't like them, can't count on them when the Sierra hits the fan.

Stan---this AF commander is far different---if you read the DB article he is not in synch with WH/Obama as he feels Putin wants the entire Ukraine and he wants to assist the Ukrainians far more than Obama wants to.

This article goes in to more detail although in German----Breedlove released the photos to give the Ukrainians an understanding of where the Russian were stationed---if the story is correct---the Ukrainians have moved a bulk of their troops to the inner core to defend in the middle giving up the edges.

http://www.huffingtonpost.de/2014/04/11/nato-putin-ukraine-besetzen_n_5132918.html?utm_hp_ref=germany

Stan

04-11-2014, 06:54 PM

Stan---this link is for photos up to 27 March-large number some of which were also released by Breedlove/NATO--still searching for the latest link.

http://graphics.wsj.com/russian-forces-near-ukraine/?mod=rusgraphic

Thanks for the links and pics !

The images appear to undermine official suggestions from Moscow that there is nothing unusual about the troop movements, nor any reason to be alarmed.

The pictures show rows of hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles apparently waiting for orders in fields and other temporary locations around 30 miles (50km) from the frontier. The images, taken in the past two weeks, show some of what Nato said was around 100 staging areas that were almost entirely unoccupied in February.

I'm no imagery expert, but staging areas are also needed for training prep and 30 miles is a long shot for preparations to invade a country.

Breedlove is AF and understands the use of ISR---it is for me amazing that a US 4star takes the unprecedented move to use open source and good quality imagery photos to inform Putin exactly where his own Army is located.

A new high in international relations---having to tell the Russians where their own mobilized troops were located.

Did it actually work out that way ? Granted, we are in a new age with imagery and intel. Could the good General simply tell and show Putin his hand ?

The Russian response was interesting as they tried to claim the photos were from an earlier exercise so therefore fakes so the commercial company provided before and after shots.

I'm sure they were a bit surprised with the footage, but they have claimed all along this was a military exercise. 30 miles away from your border is a bit of a haul for a take over. In less than 8 hours all my tanks will be out of fuel ?

Doesn't sound like much of a well thought out plan.

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 06:57 PM

Hype !

It happens so much that it would ordinarily ever make the press.

When we try and send press releases on good things, not a soul shows up. Doesn't sell papers, has no twang effect.

The Baltic States have a bit to learn about BS from their Eastern neighbor.

Stan---the reason for this article becomes apparent with the German article in the link previously provided.

http://www.huffingtonpost.de/2014/04/11/nato-putin-ukraine-besetzen_n_5132918.html?utm_hp_ref=germany

Check the paragraph referencing the stationing in the last days by the Russians of SA21s in Kaliningrad. SA21s have not been physically seen outside of physical Russia.

With the SA21s range of 400kms against aircraft and missiles Putin has effectively countered the basing of NATO fighter aircraft in the Baltics and covers half of Polish airspace and into Swedish as well.

Stan

04-11-2014, 07:08 PM

Stan---this AF commander is far different---if you read the DB article he is not in synch with WH/Obama as he feels Putin wants the entire Ukraine and he wants to assist the Ukrainians far more than Obama wants to.

Granted, but that would be a bit risky since Obama is his boss.

This article goes in to more detail although in German----Breedlove released the photos to give the Ukrainians an understanding of where the Russian were stationed---if the story is correct---the Ukrainians have moved a bulk of their troops to the inner core to defend in the middle giving up the edges.

http://www.huffingtonpost.de/2014/04/11/nato-putin-ukraine-besetzen_n_5132918.html?utm_hp_ref=germany

You can also read it here in English (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/english/)

This open source is also very much yankee and tends to be a little to the left from center in views. No ?

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 07:13 PM

Granted, but that would be a bit risky since Obama is his boss.

You can also read it here in English (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/english/)

This open source is also very much yankee and tends to be a little to the left from center in views. No ?

Stan---Huffington is yes left of center but the article being quoted was from Bild a German center to center right newspaper so I am guessing they had a good link into NATO via the German military.

The Russian new tanks are gas turbine and have a much better fuel consumption---with an Abrams all you need to find are the fuelers and one finds the tanks.

Reference Obama---there has been not a single call from either Putin or Obama in over a week---after constant calling---am assuming Obama is hardening his position and is allowing the good general to release--if one also looks at his responses threating more sanctions over the last eastern demos I think he is hardening up and going for the long haul approach.

Putin on the other hand has tried repeatedly to get any form of a meeting other than what is being proposed by both Kerry and Merkel as a form of face saving but on his terms---but nothing is being accepted and that is grating him now---you can see it in his press comments such as the US1B not being a real loan.

What is apparent is that while he is talking he is moving piece for piece his military into a position to block any military action by NATO if he goes for the entire Ukraine which will occur before the election 25 May if he goes for it while reinstating the former "legitimate" president currently sitting in Rostov and "federalizing" the country.

And for your location ---his military moves also block NATO from supporting with both ground and air the Baltics.

The key indicators are the SA21s----and not talked about are the electronic warfare units forward deployed on the Ukrainian border and in the Crimea being manned by Russian Defense Companies not military personnel. The Russians are moving the 21s much as they did the SA5/6s/8s in the Cold War days and are building belts.

What is interesting is that the Russians have developed further their mobile IEW units while we dismantled ours as peace broke out in 1989 and someone in DoD/WH felt there was no further need for US military units in Europe.

Stan

04-11-2014, 07:24 PM

With the SA21s range of 400kms against aircraft and missiles Putin has effectively countered the basing of NATO fighter aircraft in the Baltics and covers half of Polish airspace and into Swedish as well.

One of the things the Baltic States ended up agreeing with was that we no longer had a threat of a nuke war but regional security increased.

I'm finding it hard to believe that 10 to 12 F16s scare Putin into missile deployments. We've always had two fighters on rotation since NATO, and the Russians have always balked, always moved their units around our borders, and, always celebrated their Victory Day knowing good and well, we could care less, and, the locals would go haywire.

How many SA21s would it take to counter a bunch of F16s with limited ammo, refueling, etc, etc. ?

It's not like we have a KC10 flying around refueling or any forward operating bases like in the movies with a constant supply of ammo :rolleyes:

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 07:52 PM

One of the things the Baltic States ended up agreeing with was that we no longer had a threat of a nuke war but regional security increased.

I'm finding it hard to believe that 10 to 12 F16s scare Putin into missile deployments. We've always had two fighters on rotation since NATO, and the Russians have always balked, always moved their units around our borders, and, always celebrated their Victory Day knowing good and well, we could care less, and, the locals would go haywire.

How many SA21s would it take to counter a bunch of F16s with limited ammo, refueling, etc, etc. ?

It's not like we have a KC10 flying around refueling or any forward operating bases like in the movies with a constant supply of ammo :rolleyes:

Stan---not many and it is rumored to be far more effective than the Patriots and by the way the S300s were also moved into the Crimea effectively providing air defense coverage for all of southern Ukraine.

It is not about fear it is about controlling airspace and blocking any NATO military moves which the 21s can in fact do thus the Baltics are militarily so to speak effectively neutralized from Kaliningrad---without having to position ground troops on the borders which they have done anyway with their large scale ground exercise two weeks ago.

When it is all said and done this is what is worrying Breedlove and why he has a certain urgency in his statements---he sees it.

http://www.10youtube.com/autos/s-400-sa-21-triumf-surface-to-air-missile-system-firing-in-action-russia-russian-army-ria-novosti.html#content

http://www.10youtube.com/news/s-300-surface-to-air-missile-russian-army-railway-kerch-ferry-15-march-2014.html#content

OUTLAW 09

04-11-2014, 08:15 PM

This is an good article in explaining the scamming schemes the oligarchs use to take over ownership of companies and then leverage them for bank loans and move property ownership to Russian entities.

Explains how a 28 year old can become a Billionaire in a couple of years.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-faces-big-challenges-in-recovering-kurchenkos-property-343135.html

Firn

04-11-2014, 08:25 PM

I'm not quite up to date but I found this Moscow Times article (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-may-rewrite-budget-rules-to-accommodate-crimea-spending/497882.html) interesting and partly revealing.

BERLIN — Russia may change its budget rules to reflect the addition of Crimea and its population of about 2 million people, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov was quoted as saying on Thursday during a visit to Berlin.

...

"When a country gets 2 million new people ... which need big investments, this cannot be done by just diverting funds from existing state programs," Shuvalov was quoted as telling Die Welt, adding roads and ports required "serious investments".

Russian budget rules limit government borrowing to 1 percent of output and link spending to the long-term oil price.

"I think it's right for this rule to be changed for two million new Russian citizens in Crimea," Shuvalov said. "State debt is very low in Russia, among the lowest in Europe. I think under such conditions, we can raise it a little."

That debate and how those funds enter into the great world of accounting will be interesting to watch. Where will the budget lines be drawn between supporting overall the Russian economy and specifically the occupied territory?

With the EU importing about a third of its gas from Russia and accounting for three quarters of its gas exports, Shuvalov acknowledged that "Russia is more dependent on the European market than Europe is dependent on Russian supplies".

So at least somebody higher up in Russian politics states the obvious which surfaced in this thread already in the first pages... ;)

As far as I can see the current Russian line on foreign companies is to sing sweet songs about 'open to business' and 'investment is welcome' or so. Quite a change from the first days of the occuption. I'm pretty sure some smarter people in the economic sphere were able to convince most players to sound at least nice in that regard.

JMA

04-11-2014, 09:26 PM

JMA---you might like this article.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/11/exclusive-key-general-splits-with-obama-over-ukraine.html

Breedlove is between a rock and a hard place.

From where I'm sitting he is seen to be the Commander of NATO. It appears his US military career depends on his towing the line of the current US Administration. This I see as undermining NATO and the security and defense needs and concerns of the European countries making up the membership of that organisation.

It calls into question whether NATO is 'a system for a collective defence of member states agree to mutual defense to an attack by any external party' or a foreign policy arm of the US?

04-11-2014, 11:57 PM

Breedlove is AF and understands the use of ISR

ISR to the USAF is not intelligence-it is generally little more than imagery or other technical data used to identify/confirm likely targets. It is better understood as combat information. The meaning of ISR became so watered down that the Army officially stopped using the acronym.

BTW imagery from 27 March is now 2 weeks old. A lot can change in two weeks. DS and OIF are examples of what can happen in a week or two.

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2014, 06:45 AM

ISR to the USAF is not intelligence-it is generally little more than imagery or other technical data used to identify/confirm likely targets. It is better understood as combat information. The meaning of ISR became so watered down that the Army officially stopped using the acronym.

BTW imagery from 27 March is now 2 weeks old. A lot can change in two weeks. DS and OIF are examples of what can happen in a week or two.

wm---ISR to the AF is in fact intelligence as the term ISR implies a wide spectrum of platforms from ground, aerial, and satellite which feeds an extensive AF intelligence process---the Army shifted gears because Army Intelligence wanted a better term "in their eyes" and shifted to information operations in 2013 with the new FM rewrites which opened Pandora's box for interpretations and the conversations over that shift have not died down as information operations is usually associated to IT.

The term shift was actually caused by Army intelligence just because the number of platforms that grew after Iraq became so extensive that it changed almost weekly on platforms and capabilities and no one could keep up with the changes. Also the term ISR prior to the final rewrite was anchored in the new targeting FM and then they had to change the FM because Army intel did not on time submit their term change as they wanted everyone else to come to their term. That heartburn is still being discussed and it might go back to the old use of the term in the coming FM rewrites in the next few years.

What is unusual is the use of open source to brief official positions---yes they are from the 27th but look at the initial Russian response--you guys are lying---they are from an old exercise to just it's just propaganda from NATO in order to hype NATO's importance.

That argument then led Breedlove to go back and provide open source imagery on the before and after---the Russians have said nothing---literally nothing.

Street talk has Digital Global still covering the same areas and prior to the 4 country meeting next week street rumors have it NATO will release again in order to insure Russia does not use the common statement "we have pulled back and are drawing down" --why because if one read Kerry's statement from a day ago---if no drawback then we expect not much out of the meeting so he is setting the stage for nothing to come out of the meeting and is fully prepared to blame Russia for the failure.

Whereas Putin is still trying to get on that meeting agenda is gas threat and the neutrality of the Ukraine anchored there as well--which is not the intent of the EU/NATO/US so Kerry has programmed failure to stop the Russian attempts to change the reason for the meetings and to give Russia a global platform indicating they were right in the Crimea.

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2014, 02:58 PM

This video shows the takeover of a Ukrainian police station today---if one watches it closely the armed in camo types appear to be well versed in small unit actions on a key building.

If seems to be an exact repeat of the armed so called "non Russian" uniformed Russian soldiers who took over official buildings prior to a call for elections in Crimea. Also looks like the local State Security SBU leader was fired for failing to respond or actually refusing to respond---must have been a KGB trained type.

Looks like Russia is moving to have on the ground events in place to show the West at the meeting of 4 next week that 1) Ukraine is not in charge, 2) the need for the Russia term of federalization/new constitution based on that Russia term of federalization and 3) this is the critical piece I think that they want to return the ousted president as they get taking about him as the only legitimately elected president.

This is due to the fact that Russia in it's call for the meeting next views the Ukrainian representation to be illegal and demanded the West not recognize them and they should only recognize the ousted president.

http://lb.ua/news/2014/04/12/262895_obnarodovano_video_zahvata_zdaniya.html

04-12-2014, 05:39 PM

wm---ISR to the AF is in fact intelligence as the term ISR implies a wide spectrum of platforms from ground, aerial, and satellite which feeds an extensive AF intelligence process
Have it your way. But what the term "intelligence" means to USAF practitioners is not what it means to others. I still stand by my assertion that it is better understood as combat information because the USAF focus is on exploitation of the collected data rather than analysis of the collected data. The difference, by way of analogy, is not unlike the difference that Outlaw, Mirhond, and others have debated over "Russians" and "Russians"--(sorry for the lack of Cyrillic characters to capture the difference between the Russian words).

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2014, 07:37 PM

Have it your way. But what the term "intelligence" means to USAF practitioners is not what it means to others. I still stand by my assertion that it is better understood as combat information because the USAF focus is on exploitation of the collected data rather than analysis of the collected data. The difference, by way of analogy, is not unlike the difference that Outlaw, Mirhond, and others have debated over "Russians" and "Russians"--(sorry for the lack of Cyrillic characters to capture the difference between the Russian words).

wm---would tend to agree with you ---there is that famous but---as the ISR capabilities especially since 2012 have increased in ways not before seen the AF and the Army via INSCOM have actually moved to analysis and exploitation at the same time---the basic problem which I saw over and over as the AF and or the aerial side of the Army detected sometimes tens of targets the ground force was incapable in following up on the hits.

If we expand how the jointness has worked you can see it in the FMV (or what the army calls video porn feeds being both collected and analyzed within hours from centralized analysis centers ---again the critical point the ground is often unwilling or incapable of engaging many of the hits being analyzed.

We can disagree on the difference between collection and analysis or whether is now being actually merged---but the big problem was the shift from the term ISR to the term intelligence collection operations which completely misses exactly how ISR was used by the Army in ground operations.

JMA

04-12-2014, 08:17 PM

Not sure about the quality of those clowns... they took 2 minutes and about three attempts to pull the grid off the window. Keystone cops?

This video shows the takeover of a Ukrainian police station today---if one watches it closely the armed in camo types appear to be well versed in small unit actions on a key building.

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2014, 08:26 PM

Not sure about the quality of those clowns... they took 2 minutes and about three attempts to pull the grid off the window. Keystone cops?

JMA---here is an interesting development concerning the BMD destroyer underway from Rota to the Black Sea.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/12/america-sends-missile-destroying-warship-into-russ.aspx

JMA

04-12-2014, 09:01 PM

I just don't understand the US.

Why deny anything? Tell them that due to their irrational behaviour the US is putting a contingency plan in place.

For heavens sake show some balls.

JMA---here is an interesting development concerning the BMD destroyer underway from Rota to the Black Sea.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/12/america-sends-missile-destroying-warship-into-russ.aspx

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 06:43 AM

Stan

04-13-2014, 07:03 AM

In short, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not like this development much. But investors in Lockheed Martin and Raytheon (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/12/america-sends-missile-destroying-warship-into-russ.aspx) should be pleased.

And indeed I am very pleased :p

Biggus

04-13-2014, 03:43 PM

At one of the police station attacks yesterday there was a small report of the non Russian uniformed Russians carrying the AK 100 series weapons.

The AK 100 series is strictly a Russian Army weapon and the Ukraine has not such weapons.

At an attack in Donesk earlier this week the AK 100 series was seen in a photo which mirhond attempted to side track by trying to compare the rifle to the AK74 or 74M.

Then this came up concerning the attacks yesterday.

The alleged Russians were armed with Russian-made AK 100 submachine guns that are only used by Russian military forces, said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

I wouldn't read too much into this. The AK100 series includes the AK74M. The AK74M is the standard Russian rifle, and it's also used in some quantity by Ukrainian forces. Mirhond was indeed correct about the picture discussed several pages ago being an AK74M.

The bulk of the non-Russian Russians I've seen in Sloviansk have been equipped with old AK74 variants (AK74, AKS74, AKS74U). There was a guy with a suppressed M4 clone that was spotted in another area that had a case of spontaneous-desire-to-be-Russian. Again, nothing too conclusive.

What I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the guys doing the heavy lifting tend to have some fairly high-end Russian load-bearing gear, and the guys being bussed in for moral support seem to have old surplus stuff. When you see a large number of guys with loaded weapons who look like they've walked straight out of an SRVV, Sposn or SSO catalogue, it's hard to dispute that they're Russian.

Edit: It appears that the Sloviansk guys were ex-Berkut.

davidbfpo

04-13-2014, 05:25 PM

Professor John Schindler tweeted earlier:
Kremlin looks stronger & more resolute than Kyiv; many UKR security officials, not fools, are acting accordingly.

A retweet from an ex-REFL journalist Maxim Eristavi:
The level of passive defection among top-security/police chiefs in Eastern Ukraine is staggering. A complete Kyiv failure to confront it

The official 'anti-terrorist' action yesterday in Sloviansk.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlGk-ReCEAA19oz.jpg

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 05:32 PM

I wouldn't read too much into this. The AK100 series includes the AK74M. The AK74M is the standard Russian rifle, and it's also used in some quantity by Ukrainian forces. Mirhond was indeed correct about the picture discussed several pages ago being an AK74M.

The bulk of the non-Russian Russians I've seen in Sloviansk have been equipped with old AK74 variants (AK74, AKS74, AKS74U). There was a guy with a suppressed M4 clone that was spotted in another area that had a case of spontaneous-desire-to-be-Russian. Again, nothing too conclusive.

What I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the guys doing the heavy lifting tend to have some fairly high-end Russian load-bearing gear, and the guys being bussed in for moral support seem to have old surplus stuff. When you see a large number of guys with loaded weapons who look like they've walked straight out of an SRVV, Sposn or SSO catalogue, it's hard to dispute that they're Russian.

Edit: It appears that the Sloviansk guys were ex-Berkut.

Biggus---there is some confusion in the use of the term AK 100 vs 100 series---the AK100 is in fact the AK74 if one uses the term AK 100 series then in fact this particular series (101-105 with multiple different variants) is used only by the Russian Army.

If one takes the Interior Minister at his word and his comments tying the AK100 to the Russians then in fact he was really referring to the 100 series. There have been only recently two photos) (one in the east and once in the Crimea) showing the 100 series and both had a kaki colored pad attached over the indentation of the rifle butt on the right hand side of the butt not seen in the other photos of the 74Ms. There has been some speculation on the pad use but it has been tied to spatnaz units and their load bearing gear.

It is just me but I would tend to place some faith in an Interior Minister who probably came out of the SBU to know his weapons and what the Russians use.

"Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."

mirhond

04-13-2014, 05:41 PM

The AK 100 series is strictly a Russian Army weapon and the Ukraine has not such weapons.

At an attack in Donesk earlier this week the AK 100 series was seen in a photo which mirhond attempted to side track by trying to compare the rifle to the AK74 or 74M.

The alleged Russians were armed with Russian-made AK 100 submachine guns that are only used by Russian military forces, said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.

still awaiting a copy of your ID which you find X number of reasons why it cannot be attached. Or do you not have an ID that you would like to share with us?

April 10, 2014 17:16 Decision to incorporate Crimea was made following sociological polls, it wasn't planned initially - Putin

NOVO-OGARYOVO. April 10 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the final decision on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia was made in regards to a sociological poll conducted in Crimea.

"I made my decisions after it became clear how people felt. We did not prepare for such events. We could imagine how people felt, but we didn't know it for a fact," Putin said during a meeting with All-Russia Popular Front activists.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 05:45 PM

Professor John Schindler tweeted earlier:

A retweet from an ex-REFL journalist Maxim Eristavi:

The official 'anti-terrorist' action yesterday in Sloviansk.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlGk-ReCEAA19oz.jpg

David---now that Ukrainian security blood has flowed in the retaking of buildings---think you will seen an aggressive move by the Ukrainians now to use force at the same time telling the Russians to get out of the agitation business.

Russia is agitating to give an excuse to move in and at the same time to "prove" the poor ethnic Russians are being beaten up on by the neo Nazi's and the illegitimate government.

What is more interesting is the polling conducted over the last few days in the east where a relative majority do not want to be taken in by Russia, do want some form of decentralization which actually does make some sense and do not want what Russia has been calling "federalization"---think the Brits called it for awhile devolution---and do not want the taking over of buildings.

This group is what I call the silent majority while the more aggressive small group coupled with Russia special ops/GRU is doing the violence. It will be interesting in the next day or two how the local oligarchs swing.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 06:15 PM

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.

So mirhond---still awaiting a copy of your ID which is you seem to really not want to provide and by the why one does not have to be FSB to be FSB.

1. you did not respond to your comment equating Putin and Hitler---hope the FSB did not pick that one up.
2. even worse you do not even know what is being used within the Russian army other wise you would have picked up on the following comment which you seemed to ignore---well done again proving you only respond to what you want nothing more nothing less.

"Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."

SO again mirhond are you lying and or not wanting to hear the truth?

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

So mirhond (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it) are not part of the Russian Army?---come on my friend.

NOTE: --this particular mirhond is not the previous mirhond otherwise you would have known exactly the Russian Army is issued the 74M a photo you yourself posted under the name mirhond.

Come on mirhond get with the program and at least remember what you have previously written.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 06:35 PM

mirhond---more information from original Russian sources that speaks about the 100s and the AN94---if you take the time to Google you will find articles on the 100s being used by the Russian Special Operations, Airborne units, air Assault and the Ministry of the Interior Forces ie GRU due to it's accuracy in auto and semi automatic fire.

And the article is from 2009 five years ago and shortly after the Georgian invasion.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20110929/167252191.html

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 06:42 PM

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.

1. Lets work this out Bayesian way. Give an a priori probability on the event that I'll send you any ID.
2. Link or GTFO.

MIRHOND---so you agreed with my previous comments on this Interfax press release that the Russian leadership is leading their country based on secretly conducted polling?

So in fact if you read the complete response and agree that Putin is leading the entire country of Russia by secret polling is that not like leading a country by using a "crystal ball"?

So if Putin's secret polling and his "crystal ball" indicate to him that he should occupy Alaska because Russia did not get enough money for it years ago when they sold it to the US---you would follow him?

Or better if his "crystal ball" called polling indicated to him that the large Russian speaking community in Berlin Germany is being mistreated by Germans he will what roll tanks to Berlin a second time? Come on mirhond.

Hey was not the election in the Crimea kind of like polling---do you want to join Russia or do you want to join Russia?--now that was a really sociologically driven poll if one asks me.

We in the US often complain that politicians respond only to something when it affects their poll numbers so are you equating Putin to an US politician---?

Think Senator McCain might take offense to that comparison since he is on the Russian sanctions list?

Come on mirhond get with the program.

Still awaiting a copy of your ID and do not try to figure out a new tap dancing response---just post it.

carl

04-13-2014, 07:03 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 07:23 PM

Mirhond---here is a great site on “scientific polling” that is being used currently in eastern Ukraine where if you believe in Putin’s polling you should be there currently.

AND since you speak fluent Russian you can translate the website for us that is if you agree with the website.

http://rusvesna.su/

One of the Kremlin’s key tactics is to obscure the origins of those forces spearheading its operation in east Ukraine, and one of the ways it’s doing that is to promote what might be called insurrectional tourism.

“Russian Spring,” as it turns out, is not only a revanchist motto out of Moscow, which we started hearing before the Crimea annexation, it’s a website, too. Adventure seekers who dream about reviving the U.S.S.R. can go online to share information about how to travel to Ukraine and, well, make a terrible mess there. Before their departure soldiers of fortune are advised to familiarize themselves with the slogan, “Leave for the front! Glory to Russia!” along with rules of behavior for a Russian tourist who wishes to get to “the territory of brotherly Ukraine”:

“From the beginning of the Crimea events on March 2 until the present time Ukraine has refused entry to more than 10,000 Russians and the figure is growing every day,” cautions the advisory. “The situation is created artificially to reduce the quantity of people who could be involved in the conflict on the side of Russian-speaking Ukrainians.”

So, as the “Russian Spring” site recommends, “you should comply with certain rules” and know certain facts. Here is a somewhat abbreviated but informative checklist that suggests, among other things, the kinds of “tourists” likely to be crossing the border:

1. Ukrainian border guards are loyal to Kiev, which has given them the order to look for any reason to refuse entry to people with Russian passports.
2. “Even if you have just one camouflaged T-shirt, some pepper spray or a knife you could be deported back to Russia as a commando. So if you need these things you can purchase them in Ukrainian shops: the prices are not higher than Russians ones.”
3. “We advise you not to publish anti-Bandera [that is, anti-Ukrainian] propaganda on your social network accounts.”
4. “Remember that your mobiles can have undesirable photos such as military patriotic events with your participation. Don't save SMS texts like, ‘Left for front, glory to Russia!’ and similar ones.

Among the most often cited reasons for refusing Russians entry into Ukraine, according to the web site’s checklist, are:

1. Lack of the required $600 in cash guaranteeing financial support.
2. Inability to confirm the purpose of the visit to Ukraine or the precise destination.
3. Subject has military bearing, short haircut, brought a military uniform or wears the Cossack chevron insignia.
4. Subject has the certificate of a combat veteran.
5. Subject has athletic build, calloused knuckles, broken nose – characteristics of martial arts practitioners.
6. Subject has “Airborne Troops” tattoo or similar.
7. Border guards discover that subject is a reserve officer of the Russian Federation navy.
8. There is a message on subject’s mobile such as, “Left for Crimea, from there to the front to fight, if something comes up, say I am ill.”

The incriminating items most often founded by Ukrainian border guards, according to “Russian Spring,” are: military belts, blackjacks, binoculars, Russian flags, combat knives, military certificate of a squad leader of airborne troops or other special units.

NOW mirhond---this is the interesting part of the polling that Putin is using to guide Russian foreign affairs"

But, obviously, Kiev’s border security policy isn’t working all that well.

A journalist from Russia’s Moskva FM Radio broadcasting from Donetsk asked a local rebel commander, "Can you tell me your name?" He answered: "Of course, I am Paramonov Pavel Vladimirovytch.”
"Are you from Donetsk?"
"Of course not. I am from Yefremov, Tula region [Russia]."
"What are you doing in Donetsk?"
“I am helping brotherly people to defend their rights, do you have another questions?"

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 07:30 PM

Mirhond hasn't been up in 3 days and today he's/they're up. So I guess that means something has gone down or may likely go down today.

Mirhond, a smidgen of frustration is beginning show through on your part. Very bad form.

carl--he is totally new as the three others tended to at least know what the previous one had written as a response.

Bad mistake depicts a little hectic on his part.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2014, 07:40 PM

mirhond--since you agreed with the scientific polling that is guiding Putin then I am assuming you agree with all of the following videos from the "fighting front of the poor oppressed Russians in eastern Ukraine".

http://rusvesna.su/video

carl

04-13-2014, 07:49 PM

carl--he is totally new as the three others tended to at least know what the previous one had written as a response.

Bad mistake depicts a little hectic on his part.

I wonder how many other sites he/they have to cover other than this one and what the priority of this site is? No wonder things get hectic if they stick to the plan of only posting when things happen, nothing to do for days then frantic activity.

kaur

04-13-2014, 08:46 PM

Russian special operations command video from Crimea.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMbi0aCvM

davidbfpo

04-13-2014, 09:24 PM

Kaur,

Interesting video. My only take away is that the treatment of many of the Ukrainian military taken prisoners, handcuffed, with the odd kick, stands in marked contrast to the later reporting that a majority preferred to serve in the Russian military or residence in the Crimea.

Biggus

04-14-2014, 04:18 AM

Biggus---there is some confusion in the use of the term AK 100 vs 100 series---the AK100 is in fact the AK74 if one uses the term AK 100 series then in fact this particular series (101-105 with multiple different variants) is used only by the Russian Army.

If one takes the Interior Minister at his word and his comments tying the AK100 to the Russians then in fact he was really referring to the 100 series. There have been only recently two photos) (one in the east and once in the Crimea) showing the 100 series and both had a kaki colored pad attached over the indentation of the rifle butt on the right hand side of the butt not seen in the other photos of the 74Ms. There has been some speculation on the pad use but it has been tied to spatnaz units and their load bearing gear.

It is just me but I would tend to place some faith in an Interior Minister who probably came out of the SBU to know his weapons and what the Russians use.

"Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."
Show me the photographs of the purported AK100 series rifles that aren't AK74Ms. The earlier pic in this thread has already been clearly identified as a 5.45 variant with a rifle length barrel, therefore it is an AK74M. I'd very much like to see other pictures.

Accessories fitted are not exclusive to any particular variant. A buttpad on an AK105 will go on a 74M, or a 74 for that matter. If you're referring to a field dressing being taped or tied to the stock, this has been done by AK users since at least the 1970s.

Your data on actual production figures is flawed or outdated. There's a factory in Ethiopia right now pumping 103s out, there's a factory in Venezuela, and there's a large number in use with Venezuelan forces. The Indians are negotiating production, the Pakistanis use them, and there are other users too. They are quite common in Libya, they're turning up in Syria. The Bulgarians have been producing clones for several years now. All variants in the very least are not solely used by the Russians. AK104s are used by Venezuela. AK105s are used by Armenia. AK101s and 102s haven't been adopted by anyone. It's hardly a rare series of weapons.

The Interior Minister might be a very reliable guy, but in this case I haven't seen evidence to suggest he is right. If the Russians were going to roll in with obviously Russian-army-only weapons, he'd have been talking about their 9x39mm weapons as well. Right now, they're doing it with weapons that have adequate deniability.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 06:44 AM

Show me the photographs of the purported AK100 series rifles that aren't AK74Ms. The earlier pic in this thread has already been clearly identified as a 5.45 variant with a rifle length barrel, therefore it is an AK74M. I'd very much like to see other pictures.

Accessories fitted are not exclusive to any particular variant. A buttpad on an AK105 will go on a 74M, or a 74 for that matter. If you're referring to a field dressing being taped or tied to the stock, this has been done by AK users since at least the 1970s.

Your data on actual production figures is flawed or outdated. There's a factory in Ethiopia right now pumping 103s out, there's a factory in Venezuela, and there's a large number in use with Venezuelan forces. The Indians are negotiating production, the Pakistanis use them, and there are other users too. They are quite common in Libya, they're turning up in Syria. The Bulgarians have been producing clones for several years now. All variants in the very least are not solely used by the Russians. AK104s are used by Venezuela. AK105s are used by Armenia. AK101s and 102s haven't been adopted by anyone. It's hardly a rare series of weapons.

The Interior Minister might be a very reliable guy, but in this case I haven't seen evidence to suggest he is right. If the Russians were going to roll in with obviously Russian-army-only weapons, he'd have been talking about their 9x39mm weapons as well. Right now, they're doing it with weapons that have adequate deniability.

The quote refers to weapons produced inside Russia---the Russian special units and the Ministry do not use weapons built under licensing agreements made outside Russia.

If one looks at the history of the 100s it was a competition between two arms manufacturers as the Russian Army wanted a "new rifle for a new Army" after realizing they had in the depots/and in Army units enough AK74s and older models to give every Russian citizen a rifle.

After testing both competitors they did not get to a decision and the 100 series lingered and thus released for licensing/export to recoup their development investments.

Out of all this confusion in the decision process one stood out and stood out for it's accuracy in auto and semi fire the AN94 even though it is a weapon that is a little clumsy in the handling.

Check where the AN94 disappeared to after the competition tests--Army special units and the Ministry of the Interior.

Would actually trust the comments especially made by a SBU/Minister of Interior who has years in the SBU as someone who can discern weapon types and would in fact recognize them.

Just a side comment---special units world wide--if they train on one particular weapon they deploy with that weapon and in the current turmoil and swirling masses in the various eastern Ukrainian cities with masses of all types of AK74variants a small special unit team's hand carried weapons will simply disappear in the midst and not be automatically recognized as such---that is why his comment is important.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 06:59 AM

Russian special operations command video from Crimea.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMbi0aCvM

kaur---compliment for the find as it is what I would call a briefing video for the Russian special forces command as it was in fact rumored that there was at least one special forces brigade if not two operating in the initial takeover of all the official buildings and then the final military installations takeover.

There have been other special unit videos circulating as well but more from the Russian Marines which might equate with our MARSOC marine units in abilities which would make sense since they copied our USASOC concept.

A great film to understand weapons, equipment, and TTPs.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 07:04 AM

Seems that the Russian UN Ambassador did not get the NATO briefing using open source imagery.

Interfax from today.

09:15 RUSSIAN PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO UN CHURKIN: WEST SHOULD STOP SPREADING CONCOCTIONS ABOUT ALLEGED AMASSMENT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY ARMADAS ON UKRAINIAN BORDER

JMA

04-14-2014, 07:28 AM

There is no deterrent against further Russian action against Ukraine.

Using Machiavelli it would be a good thing for the Russians to invade Ukraine up to Moldova but including Transnistria.

The net effect will be:

* That finally European countries will realise that need to look after themselves and not expect an increasingly impotent US to provide any security umbrella.

* It will expose the fatal flaw in Germany's leadership which has no military underpinning and force other European states under threat from Russia to make their own alliances to provide a military deterrent against Russian expansion.

* It will isolate Russia from Europe economically.

* It provides Europe an opportunity to arm and support a Ukrainian insurgency against Russian occupation to bleed the Russian military and economy.

* It will lead to a concerted effort by European countries to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent to further Russian expansion.

* The formation of a European version of NATO excluding the US.

The message to the US must be "either you provide a deterrent to Russian expansion or you %$#& off".

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 10:43 AM

Biggus/kaur---

Biggus---reference the 100 series or not---yesterday evening in a German news channel that carries on the weekends a large number of military/historical series there was one on the Russian Special forces which was a one hour film about the "new Russian Army" which is all volunteer and not draftees---depicting the testing of new volunteers for the Russian SF out of 68 only 13 were taken at the end of the endurance testing. Those that failed can try again every six months.

Depicted volunteers were also from the "new Russian Army" Airborne, Air Assault, and Marine personnel who wanted to join the Russian SF---it depicted a non stop 72 hour endurance test covering all aspects of kick the doors from firing to rappelling to urban MOUT etc.

During the urban warfare piece which was done on an indoor firing range and depicting a firing session inside a room with targets at 50 meters using iron sights each soldier had to fire 3 times right and 3 times left in under 19 seconds and not miss a single time.

Now this goes to our discussion of the 100 series--the weapons used were in fact the AN94 firing a sub caliber round in semi mode---the AN94 was clearly seen.

If it is being used during a 2013 Russian Army SF firing exercise then it is the standard weapon for Russian SF and the airborne, air assault and marines types had no problem firing it and seemed quite comfortable with it --then in fact that is their standard weapon as well regardless of what some articles are saying about the 100 series---the video footage showed excellent accuracy (not a single miss from five individuals shown to be firing) with the sub round which is also a characteristic of the 94--meaning it's accuracy.

What is missed in this discussion is the fact that the Russian Army has in fact since 2008 created what the West would call an all volunteer Rapid Deployment Force of all volunteers and full time professionals ie officers, NCOs and enlisted numbering roughly 70K that allows now Russia to respond quickly anywhere due to the air mobility and then follow up with the normal draft army.

Which then goes to the video kaur fished out of YouTube which was basically depicting that SF mobility ability in video footage of various points inside Crimea.

Dayuhan

04-14-2014, 11:55 AM

The message to the US must be "either you provide a deterrent to Russian expansion or you %$#& off".

Maybe the message from the US to Erope could be something like "either you get serious about your own defense - say for starters commit to raising defense spending to a minimum of 2.5% of GPD and to re-orienting the energy infrastructure to accept LBG imports - or we will %$#@ off."

Not as if %$#@ing off would be harming the US, and given Europe's economic capacity there is no reason for them to be expecting to huddle under a "security umbrella" provided by the American taxpayer.

kaur

04-14-2014, 12:22 PM

Outlaw, thanks for the post.

What is missed in this discussion is the fact that the Russian Army has in fact since 2008 created what the West would call an all volunteer Rapid Deployment Force of all volunteers and full time professionals ie officers, NCOs and enlisted numbering roughly 70K that allows now Russia to respond quickly anywhere due to the air mobility and then follow up with the normal draft army.

Swedes made recently effort to count the beans.

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Fredrik_Westerlund2/publication/259272886_'The_Military_Capability_of_Russia's_Arm ed_Forces_in_2013'_in_Hedenskog__Vendil_Pallin_(ed s.)_Russian_Military_Capability_in_a_Ten-Year_Perspective_-_2013/file/9c96052aad2e24fa66.pdf

Fuchs commented it here:

I suppose it's unnecessary to compare this to the military strength of European NATO or the EU. The party which couldn't defend itself here is Russia/Belarus, period. "Wet paper bag" talk only serves one purpose; we can easily identify some people who totally don't deserve our attention.

http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.be/2014/01/european-and-russian-military-capability.html

Right behind Latvian border Russian unit is getting new gear. I suppose that this is one of the helicopter units that Shamanov promised to be integrated to VDV divisions.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/701431.html

Look for the word of Остров here

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/?search=%D0%9C%D0%B8-28

AR clone in Ukraine. Ukrainian firm makes those clones http://www.zbroyar.com.ua. If I rember correctly Russians are also making AR clones. FSB is using HK417 (or MR308).

JMA

04-14-2014, 12:47 PM

Yes the US should have called on Europe to take responsibility for their own defence. They probably did.

But the US is a control freak in that it wants to micro manage everything - in this example NATO. So like children Europe was brought up by a domineering parent and finds itself incapable of acting independently like adults (when the domineering parent departs).

Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

To be correct the US misread Russian intentions and devastatingly wrong as Germany has. Remember Obama mocking Romney over Russia in the 2012 debate? See here (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/03/01/remember-obama-mocking-romney-over-russia-concerns-the-1980s-are-now-calling-to-ask-for-their-foreign-policy-back/)

“You said Russia. Not Al Qaida. You said Russia,” Obama said regarding biggest threats. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because…the cold war’s been over for 20 years.”

Romney offered a powerful retort: “Russia, I indicated, is a geopolitical foe…and I said in the same paragraph I said and Iran is the greatest national security threat we face. Russia does continue to battle us in the U.N. time and time again. I have clear eyes on this. I’m not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia or Mr. Putin…”

OK you go tell the Ukraine and the rest not to get excited as "the cold war’s been over for 20 years.” They have nothing to worry about, right?

The 'smart guys' have got it wrong again. Disastrously wrong.

I submit that the Ukraine crisis will be the catalyst for Europe receiving a wake up call. Make no mistake the message of US impotence has hit home in Asia and Africa too.

The world - especially Russia and China - are left in no doubt that when the crunch comes the US cannot be relied upon.

Maybe the message from the US to Erope could be something like "either you get serious about your own defense - say for starters commit to raising defense spending to a minimum of 2.5% of GPD and to re-orienting the energy infrastructure to accept LBG imports - or we will %$#@ off."

Not as if %$#@ing off would be harming the US, and given Europe's economic capacity there is no reason for them to be expecting to huddle under a "security umbrella" provided by the American taxpayer.

JMA

04-14-2014, 12:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 01:27 PM

It is important for the US to explain to Russia and Ukraine that Russia has read them correctly and is taking advantage of the political weakness of the US to confront Russian expansionism.

However, as a last gasp attempt at a moral action the US should state that rather than fail to honour the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances made to Ukraine the US will provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself from Russian aggression which may include tactical nuclear weapons.

Then and only then can the US depart the scene (albeit with it tail between its legs) with some honour.

JMA---slowly agreeing with you---the US has a number of options that it could pull the trigger on to get the message across to Putin, but it keeps looking at the EU/NATO to make decisions---in some aspects NATO/EU are looking at the US for guidance which you allude and is correct. It is almost like the US does not want to damage EU business when in fact you are right it must be the Europeans who make a massive economic threat a serious one for Putin.

The US should simply walk into the valley of death, close their eyes and pull the trigger on;
1. Open up the Strategic Oil Reserves and flood the sour oil market for six straight months reducing the sour oil pricing to under 50 USD a barrel which will instantly damage Russian finances as they need at least 85 per barrel just to barely finance their own budget.
2. Sanction immediately all Russian banks as Stan has pointed out the Estonian leader has said that from the beginning, and lastly 3) move the four BMD destroyers from Rota into the Black Sea area as they are the worst nightmare for Russia ---an anti ballistic missile defense as that negates their only serious threat---nuclear.

What is puzzling to me though is why the NSA which has been so beaten up on about their capabilities have not released a single cell phone intercept to the world mas media to kill once and for all times the myth of the non Russian soldiers---the proRussian non Russian armed "soldiers" are constantly in videos on their cells and what they NSA cannot intercept?