Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014) [Archive] - Page 5

Biggus

04-14-2014, 02:42 PM

Now this goes to our discussion of the 100 series--the weapons used were in fact the AN94 firing a sub caliber round in semi mode---the AN94 was clearly seen.

If it is being used during a 2013 Russian Army SF firing exercise then it is the standard weapon for Russian SF and the airborne, air assault and marines types had no problem firing it and seemed quite comfortable with it --then in fact that is their standard weapon as well regardless of what some articles are saying about the 100 series---the video footage showed excellent accuracy (not a single miss from five individuals shown to be firing) with the sub round which is also a characteristic of the 94--meaning it's accuracy.

The AN-94 is available to some units in very small quantities. It never reached full scale production, and it's going to die the quiet death that has been coming to it for a long time. Think of it as Russia's equivalent of the Stoner 63 series of rifles and MGs - technically interesting, a possible contender at one point, but overtaken by economics and it's own complexity. It's a very rare weapon for any unit to have. It's hardly standard. That you seem to repeatedly discuss a 'sub calibre' or 'sub round' like it is meaningful in this context is strange. They fire the same 7n6, 7n10 and 7n22 5.45mm rounds as the AK-74.

That five individuals didn't miss a target is devoid of meaning without context. The same five individuals given an M4, a BM59 or a No4 Lee Enfield, could do exactly the same thing. What is technically impressive about the AN-94 is that it can place a burst of automatic fire very accurately. The drawback is that it's a finicky and difficult-to-maintain piece of equipment.

mirhond---more information from original Russian sources that speaks about the 100s and the AN94---if you take the time to Google you will find articles on the 100s being used by the Russian Special Operations, Airborne units, air Assault and the Ministry of the Interior Forces ie GRU due to it's accuracy in auto and semi automatic fire.

And the article is from 2009 five years ago and shortly after the Georgian invasion.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20110929/167252191.html

I'm not Mirhond, but it's a topic that I'm interested in.

It's a semi-informative article. The AK107 isn't actually part of the same family of other AK100 series weapons in anything but name, it uses the same action as the AN-94. It is effectively a prototype, and apart from some civilian sales (that haven't materialised because they haven't actually been built yet), it will have the same fate as the AN-94.

The quote refers to weapons produced inside Russia---the Russian special units and the Ministry do not use weapons built under licensing agreements made outside Russia.

In context of the 100 series, maybe. They certainly didn't stop using their Austrian-built Glocks when they began their own licenced production. I'd like to know where this tidbit of information comes from.

If one looks at the history of the 100s it was a competition between two arms manufacturers as the Russian Army wanted a "new rifle for a new Army" after realizing they had in the depots/and in Army units enough AK74s and older models to give every Russian citizen a rifle.

After testing both competitors they did not get to a decision and the 100 series lingered and thus released for licensing/export to recoup their development investments.

Out of all this confusion in the decision process one stood out and stood out for it's accuracy in auto and semi fire the AN94 even though it is a weapon that is a little clumsy in the handling.

You haven't yet understood the development of the 100 series and their link to the AK-74M, nor the fact that Izhmash would have been the manufacturer of whatever rifle was adopted, AK-74M or AN-94.

Towards the end of the existence of the Soviet Union, there were developments that were intended to replace the AK-74. The AK-74 was based on the AKM, which had been first produced in the very late 1950s. Obviously, there had been some developments in the manufacturing processes and materials used between 1959 and 1989. The rifle that became the AN-94 was intended to be the rifle to replace the AK-74. Of course, this did not end up happening. The Russians decided to spend the least money possible and upgrade the AK-74 in the interim to become more compatible with modern manufacturing methods and materials, and in 1991 the AK-74M became what the US military would consider Standard A. As seems to be the case with interim solutions, it became permanent. Particularly after the abysmal performance of pre-production AN-94s in Chechnya.

Do not confuse the AK-74 as being the same weapon as the AK-74M. It's not, and there are important differences. It was not a case of recalling AK-74s, rebuilding them as AK-74Ms and sending them out for issue as a new rifle. These are new builds.

Having adopted a new rifle, the Russians needed to develop a new equivalent of the AKS-74U, as they had stopped building the receivers used to build them when production switched to the AK-74M. This would become the AK105.

The AK101, 102, 103 and 104 were not developed to become the "new rifle for a new Army", because they'd just adopted the AK-74M, built on the same tooling. It was a marketing decision to build AK-74Ms and AK105s chambered for the two other major world-wide rifle calibres, for sure, but it was never expected that the various Russian armed forces would issue a 5.56x45mm or 7.62x39mm weapon for general issue. Russia was/is very heavily invested in the 5.45x39mm cartridge. Even the AN-94 is 5.45mm. I suspect that Izhmash were very surprised to get orders for AK103s and 104s from within Russia, but there's still some very impressive stocks of 7.62x39mm in some branches of the Russian forces.

Probably worth pointing out that when the AK-74M was adopted, there were still shortages of even the old model AK-74. Hell, some units were still using the SKS well into the second half of the 1980s. The glut of AK-74s is very much a 21st Century phenomenon for Russia.

Check where the AN94 disappeared to after the competition tests--Army special units and the Ministry of the Interior.

And after using them (or trying to) in Chechnya and Dagestan, it was discovered that they weren't acceptable for issue as a replacement for the AK-74M.

Would actually trust the comments especially made by a SBU/Minister of Interior who has years in the SBU as someone who can discern weapon types and would in fact recognize them.
What I believe is that the situation of building takeovers in the last day or two aren't actually being conducted by Russian military personnel, but rather pro-Russian Ukrainians.

If I was the Minister of the Interior and I suspected that the Russians were pulling the strings, I'd be telling the world anything I could think of to implicate them, regardless of their physical presence and/or evidence. So we end up with fictional AN-94 wielding Russian military personnel. Pending photographic evidence, I believe he's either lying, or he doesn't know what he is talking about.

Just a side comment---special units world wide--if they train on one particular weapon they deploy with that weapon and in the current turmoil and swirling masses in the various eastern Ukrainian cities with masses of all types of AK74variants a small special unit team's hand carried weapons will simply disappear in the midst and not be automatically recognized as such---that is why his comment is important.

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at. The second part of this paragraph is odd, because any non-5.45x39mm weapon is going to stand out like the proverbial dog's bollocks (and believe me, every piece of footage containing a previously-unseen weapon in Ukraine is being documented in several open source forums), as are AK105s. Reference the fellow with the M4 clone being tracked down and corresponded with on Twitter in the last few days. I certainly believe that if the Ukrainians actually spotted someone carrying a 9A-91 or SR-3M on a CCTV camera (as both weapons are Russian-only and actually issued in significant numbers, as well as being ideal for urban warfare), we'd have seen it within a very short time.

The first part of your paragraph, that if an SOF soldier trains on a weapon, he deploys with it, is a very broad statement. The SASR boys here do their kill-house training with MP5s (kill-house ballistic walls here are only rated for 9mm, not 5.56), they sure don't use them in Afghanistan in any notable quantity. MARSOC teams have trained like hell with their M45s and deployed with Glock 19s or M9A1s.

If you're looking for a defining 'a-ha, only Russians use that gun' moment, you'll be waiting awhile. If you're happy to have a defining 'wow, that's a whole lot of AK-74Ms, they've got to be Russians' moment, then I haven't had one of those moments in anywhere but Crimea as yet. Believe me, as a gun-buff/geardo/military history nerd, I'd be literally beside myself with fascination and wonder if an AN-94 turned up somewhere.

kaur

04-14-2014, 02:43 PM

JMA, this is what happened after Georgia-RF war http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/09/20/us-russia-france-idUSLK14885620080920

AmericanPride

There is no such as a 'clean break' in this scenario. Either the West continues confronting Moscow on Ukrainian issues or some kind of accommodation is which which also satisfies Russian interests.

Like that Reuters article about last war shows, West is split and some want to confront and some want to accommodate.

How to handle countries that are split 50/50 between EU and Russian organisations? Next is Moldova.

Biggus

04-14-2014, 03:14 PM

kaur---did you notice that the Mu-28 seemed to be a cross between the Hind 24 and the US Army AH64 Apache newer version? Who says industrial espionage is not alive and well via the FSB.

AH-64 first flight: 1975
Mi-24 first flight: 1969
Mi-28 first flight: 1982
The Hind was heavily influenced by the Cobra doctrinally, but not necessarily technologically. The first flight date for the Hind was far too close to that of the Cobra for there to have been a great deal of borrowed technology being used. I have read that the -28 was quite influential on the development of the Apache. Mind you, it's taken an awfully long time for the Russians to actually put the -28 into service.

Take a step further backwards.

What gave Russia the belief that they could get away with an invasion of Georgia?

Kosovo, perhaps?

Russia perceives the West as being happy to ignore national sovereignty when it is convenient, therefore Russia does the same.

JMA

04-14-2014, 04:33 PM

JMA and Outlaw,

Your dialogue and prescriptions for the Ukraine-Russia issue presupposes that Russia (and confronting it) is a major policy issue. But it's not - and part of that is that many on the Hill believe Russia is not a 'great power' any longer and therefore not worth confronting. But it's that attitude which has generated tension in the first place since Washington has been thoroughly dismissive of addressing what Russia would consider it's vital interests.

Yes, but if Russia is no longer a 'great power' what has become of the US that this has-been power can take it on and get away with it with impunity?

The problem is that for Russia to exercise what it sees as its rights will mean nations - ethnic entities - will to be subjugated under the Russian jack boot.

If the US is good with that then its a new direction for a burnt out (once) super power.

The not an issue for the US argument is merely a poor excuse for shrinking - increasingly impotent - once great power.

I predicted a few years ago that in the future - probably not in my lifetime - that China will take over Hawaii and Russia Alaska. No force will be needed the US will just roll over and spread its legs. Glad I won't be around to see it.

kaur

04-14-2014, 04:51 PM

JMA:

I predicted a few years ago that in the future - probably not in my lifetime - that China will take over Hawaii and Russia Alaska.

You know what songs were played in Sochi paraolympics, when Russians marched with their flag?

According to this news http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RAQ-cIARLDg it was

Ljube "Davai, za ..." http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=51yLNKbFM_k
http://lyricstranslate.com/en/davay-za-davai-za-do-it.html-0

Nautilus Pompilius "Good bye America" http://lyricstranslate.com/en/gudbay-amerika-goodbye-america.html

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 04:56 PM

JMA---the following link agrees with your assumptions of both the US and the EU support actions/non support actions towards the Ukraine.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304117904579499762012132306?mod=tr ending_now_2

It was mentioned in an article carried by a well known Berlin newspaper that out of all the EU sanctions against 17 individuals there was only one bank account frozen. The article went on to state that the EU sanctions were really nothing but a verbal slap on the wrist.

What was far more interesting in the article was critique being voiced against the current German lack of support for anything against Russia---maybe because a large number of current German leaders grew up under the old Communist system and have a high respect for Russia which they do not openly voice to the public.

There are a large number of banks accounts one could freeze in Switzerland but the Swiss will not adhere to the EU sanctions and states so openly.

TheCurmudgeon

04-14-2014, 05:17 PM

I thought this was interesting. Putin is walking a fine line between using Russian ethnic nationalism which plays to a significant but not all-inclusive audience and using a more cosmopolitan Russian nationalism which plays to all Russian citizens. As he tries to build the broader cosmopolitan nationalism to ensure passification of non-Russian ethnicities he threatens to lose his own base.

Staunton, April 5

Russian nationalists in Crimea and in Russia are expressing their outrage at and opposition to what they see as Vladimir Putin’s “Tatarization” of Crimea, a policy that they argue does not reflect the ethnic balance on the peninsula and that calls into question Moscow’s portrayal of itself as a defender of ethnic Russians.

The appointment to key positions of Crimean Tatars and efforts by leaders of that nation to take control of various facilities have infuriated ethnic Russian leaders there who thought that it was they, rather than the Crimean Tatars, who were exercising their right to self-determination.

After all, they point out, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified his moves in Crimea by talking about the repression of ethnic Russians, and the ethnic Russians, who form the majority of the peninsula’s population, were the most enthusiastic backers of joining Crimea to the Russian Federation.

http://www.interpretermag.com/russian-nationalists-angry-at-what-they-view-as-putins-tatarization-of-crimea/

Of course, all this depends on the source. Has anyone heard of the "Institute of Modern Russia"?

JMA

04-14-2014, 05:47 PM

JMA, this is what happened after Georgia-RF war http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/09/20/us-russia-france-idUSLK14885620080920

Yes France rolled over:

Not a single project has been put off or suspended between France and Russia in the wake of the Georgia conflict.

Only the French can turn cowardly appeasement into a virtue.

... but all is not lost. The French are not as dumb as the sometimes behave:

In Ukraine crisis, Germany and France see ghosts of European nationalism that led to the First World War (http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/world/Ukraine+crisis+Germany+France+ghosts+European+nati onalism/9736390/story.html)

France’s Prime Minister Manuel Valls called the Ukraine crisis “probably the greatest risk to peace and stability in Europe since the Iron Curtain came down.”

Oh really? LOL it took sometime for our French friends to figure that out... now we wait for the penny to drop with the yanks.

... but then again we are told that peace and stability in Europe is no longer an important issue for the US...

kaur

04-14-2014, 06:12 PM

Who's gonna buy their Mistral?

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/765880.html

I have no illusions.

JMA

04-14-2014, 06:14 PM

JMA---took the time to find via the Russian nationalist sites at least 12 videos taken in eastern Ukraine in the last two days and all had individuals walking around using cellphones.

And you cannot tell me that the NSA does not know what is going on?

And if so why not release the paraphases of the conversations if not the entire conversations and translated for the world media to listen to and understand?

To be honest I think the US is in disarray.

Obama has gone missing, Kerry seems to have imploded and now they are going to trot out Biden - yes, hilarious isn't it - to reassure the Ukrainians that the US will do nothing...

What ever happened to Al Haig - the 'I'm in control here' guy?

Crazy guy but he had style.

I imagine he would handle the situation like this...

Haig flies into Moscow overnight and insists on taking in some of the sights before meeting with Lavrov... When he finally meets with Lavrov he says: "Forgive my indulgence Secretary Lavrov but I had to use this visit to take in the sights of Moscow because unless you withdraw your troops beyond 100 miles of the Ukraine border within the next 48 hours Moscow will end up as a pile of radioactive rubble with Red Square as Ground Zero. I will be leaving now and taking my embassy staff with me. Good day to you sir."

Oh for the good old bad days... sure beats the wimps of today.

carl

04-14-2014, 06:34 PM

I predicted a few years ago that in the future - probably not in my lifetime - that China will take over Hawaii and Russia Alaska. No force will be needed the US will just roll over and spread its legs. Glad I won't be around to see it.

Remember when I said 'No it will never happen.'? You convinced me otherwise and now it seems closer than ever, at least with Hawaii. I see the result of a lost naval war with Red China being Guam becoming part of Red China and Hawaii becoming an independent country with Pearl Harbor being a PLAN base.

As I said over at the Journal, the US will do nothing. Mr. Obama is a horse in the face of a threat, not a donkey. What we have to start thinking about is how deep a hole we are going to be in at the end of his term and how we can get out of it, if we can get out of it.

(I've been hanging around horses and a burro lately so my analogies get headed in an equine direction.)

Stan

04-14-2014, 06:38 PM

What ever happened to Al Haig - the 'I'm in control here' guy?

Crazy guy but he had style.

Hey Mark,

The General indeed had style.

Responsible for the continuation of the Vietnam War, invasions of Cambodia and Laos, a coup in Chile, sent me and many soldiers in 82 on a boondoggle in an unmarked C130 into Nicaragua with strange people (agents), and, almost single-handedly turned America into Britain's enemy during the Falklands War.

However, he may very well have been the right man for the job now :cool:

omarali50

04-14-2014, 07:10 PM

Stan, Great comment.

Carl, It seems to me (from a very low personal knowledge base, I admit) that Russia is not a viable superpower now and will not be in the days to come. Poor Ukraine (lets not forget how hopelessly incapable Ukraine is as a "soveriegn" state at this time) and a few other similarly weak and divided countries around Russia will no doubt find themselves in a lot of trouble, but Russia just does not have the capacity to take on Western Europe or the system to finance such a capacity in the future.
Too naive?
About China, I think they are very much capable of becoming a great power, but would they really want to invade Guam and Hawaii? They would have to cross Japan first. Even the Mongols couldnt do that.

Stan

04-14-2014, 07:19 PM

Stan, Great comment.

Thanks !

But, at the end of the day, I agree with Mark on any number of issues. General Haig at least backed his words with action.

That said, I blame Obama's advisers (much like I blamed Clinton's during the Genocide) for strongly worded Bravo Sierra with no immediate action. Symbolic movement of aircraft and personnel would not even fool Africans. With 3 years to go, Obama's administration wants to go out on a Democratic Party high note of actually doing something his party has yet to ever accomplish. Sad he chose to try his hand with Putin.

I hope he's good at poker :rolleyes:

Carl, It seems to me (from a very low personal knowledge base, I admit) that Russia is not a viable superpower now and will not be in the days to come. Poor Ukraine (lets not forget how hopelessly incapable Ukraine is as a "soveriegn" state at this time) and a few other similarly weak and divided countries around Russia will no doubt find themselves in a lot of trouble, but Russia just does not have the capacity to take on Western Europe or the system to finance such a capacity in the future.
Too naive?

Not naive per se, but an underestimation of what Putin is capable of, even if his military are not up to snuff. They, in shear numbers, are more than capable and whatever losses will be yet another reason for Putin to rant to the Duma about military reform and financing. Something he often never gets.

Unlike Obama, looking for a sweet exit from political life, Putin is all about saving face and not looking like the shrimp he is. If we were to have handled him like a former African dictator, we would not be having this conversation and he would be long gone, eaten by crocks.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2014, 08:17 PM

Stan---from Interfax this evening----seems he is focusing on the eastern flank now.

18:21 Russia to take measures in case NATO force configuration changes - Grushko (Part 2)

davidbfpo

04-14-2014, 08:46 PM

Via Twitter:
We are seeking a translation on this video from the Donetsk Oblast which Kyiv Post (https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraines-ultimatum-9-am-deadline-passes-in-east-four-dead-in-sloviansk-live-updates-343380.html) described as showing "a man who identifies himself as a Russian lieutenant colonel organizing police officers shortly after pro-Russian separatists stormed and took control of the police station in Horlivka.Link to YouTube (short clip):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DinMf_7dQK4#t=57

Elsewhere named as:
Lt. Col. Shulzhenko
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlLhko-CYAA9wKe.jpg

carl

04-14-2014, 09:27 PM

Carl, It seems to me (from a very low personal knowledge base, I admit) that Russia is not a viable superpower now and will not be in the days to come. Poor Ukraine (lets not forget how hopelessly incapable Ukraine is as a "soveriegn" state at this time) and a few other similarly weak and divided countries around Russia will no doubt find themselves in a lot of trouble, but Russia just does not have the capacity to take on Western Europe or the system to finance such a capacity in the future.
Too naive?
About China, I think they are very much capable of becoming a great power, but would they really want to invade Guam and Hawaii? They would have to cross Japan first. Even the Mongols couldnt do that.

Omar:

Russia is weak. But that weakness is only exposed if they are opposed. A boxer with a glass jaw will never lose if nobody ever throws a punch at him. That is not to say that they don't have some strength, as Stan says, but some strength is not winning strength. If we don't throw a punch so to speak, their glass jaw is no weakness.

I didn't mean to suggest they would invade Guam and Hawaii. If they sank a bunch of ships, took 10,000 Americans sailors off sunk ships prisoner, killed most of our tankers and C-17s and then proposed negotiations, why who knows where that would lead? Just because reparations and territorial demands are out of style (maybe not so much lately) doesn't mean they won't come back.

04-14-2014, 11:30 PM

Hey Mark,

The General indeed had style.

Responsible for the continuation of the Vietnam War, invasions of Cambodia and Laos, a coup in Chile, sent me and many soldiers in 82 on a boondoggle in an unmarked C130 into Nicaragua with strange people (agents), and, almost single-handedly turned America into Britain's enemy during the Falklands War.

However, he may very well have been the right man for the job now :cool:

As I remember things, General Haig learned his foreign policy practice from Henry Kissinger, the guy who brought us detente and SALT. Haig left the SACEUR position in July 1979, retiring into the private sector until recalled to be SecState in 1981. One wonders how much involvement he had in shaping the MRBM/IRBM "double track" decision announced by NATO in December of 1979. His actions in 1982 regarding the Falklands and Lebanon were not exactly "get tough" positions either.

04-14-2014, 11:47 PM

TheCurmudgeon

04-14-2014, 11:55 PM

Playing favorites with the Tatars in Crimea may keep Tatars all over Russia from become the next group of terrorists in Russia. Too bad Putin doesn't really have similar options in Dagestan and Chechnya. Of course today's other disgruntled ethnicities in Crimea may become the terrorists of tomorrow, as you note indirectly.

Ahhhhh, but that is Putin's greatest weakness. He is favoring the Russkies over the Russian citizens. At other times he is favoring Tatars over Russkies. If we were smart we would be exploiting this in our rhetoric. But we are not, because we are a democracy, and democracies don't believe in ethnic difference, only ethnic diversity ... and so we will miss our greatest opportunity to divide Russia and weaken Putin.

Dayuhan

04-15-2014, 12:18 AM

Russia is weak. But that weakness is only exposed if they are opposed. A boxer with a glass jaw will never lose if nobody ever throws a punch at him. That is not to say that they don't have some strength, as Stan says, but some strength is not winning strength. If we don't throw a punch so to speak, their glass jaw is no weakness.

This isn't a boxing match... more like a potential bar brawl. It's also a bar brawl where the protagonists have pistols in their waistbands, only in this case the pistols fire nukes, which makes throwing punches at jaws a prospect that could lead to all sorts of unpleasant places.

The US managed the Cold War by not throwing punches at jaws, but by containment, isolation, trading space for time (as The Curmudgeon aptly put it) where necessary, and letting the antagonist rot out from the inside, with a bit of occasional help. This isn't the Cold War - Russia hasn't anything like the global network or capacity that the Soviet Union had - but Russia's poorly managed and vulnerable economy is still a weakness, and there's no reason a similar strategy can't work again. It will take time, of course... but it really necessary to start swinging punches at jaws, given where that can lead?

Of course that strategy can only work if Europe is on board and actively participating... but since the threat is to Europe in the first place, you'd think they's at least be willing to discuss it.

Dayuhan

04-15-2014, 12:23 AM

But the US is a control freak in that it wants to micro manage everything - in this example NATO. So like children Europe was brought up by a domineering parent and finds itself incapable of acting independently like adults (when the domineering parent departs).

Bollocks. The Europeans aren't children, and the US didn't make them what they are. Whatever they are or have become is the consequence of their choices, and it is their own responsibility. They chose their course, and they can change it if they want to. That's not up to the US.

Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

Would the status of European preparedness ever have changed if the US had maintained forces in Europe?

I see no logic in expecting the US to spend for the defense of those who are more than capable of providing for themselves.

Fuchs

04-15-2014, 12:52 AM

Thanks, I looked at this thread a few hours ago and wondered whether anybody else would add some sense to this nonsense.

Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

Hint: There's no such thing.
Read article 5. I mean really- read it. Not hearsay.
The real word North Atlantic Treaty Article Five not a stern article with actual obligations, but a "do what you want" thing.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

My emphasis.

I noticed again and again that in anglophone political discussions some people make up responsibilities, obligations and rights on the fly, trying to assert authority out of thin air. They invent a duty/obligation/responsibility when they want something particular done yet lack the arguments or evidence to support their opinion. They invent a right when they don't want something particular done.

I swear I cannot remember this as being an even remotely as popular rhetoric device in Germanophone communication. In fact, I only remember one example right now (admittedly, it's straight from a federal minister (http://www.stupidedia.org/stupi/Supergrundrecht)).

carl

04-15-2014, 02:06 AM

I see no logic in expecting the US to spend for the defense of those who are more than capable of providing for themselves.

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

JMA

04-15-2014, 06:35 AM

Carl,

Once again you have hit the nail on the head.

In Timothy Snyder's book Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin (http://www.amazon.com/Bloodlands-Europe-Between-Hitler-Stalin/dp/0465031471/ref=sr_sp-atf_title_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1397539058&sr=1-1&keywords=Bloodlands) he chronicles the destruction wrought the mass killings of 14 million people carried out/caused by - those peace loving nations - Germany and Russia between 1933-45. Just in those years!

The Germans have been taken care of where their military ability is now close to zero as it should be ... but the smart guys in DC let the Russians off lightly. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Russia has waited for the moment of greatest weakness to make their move...

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

Ulenspiegel

04-15-2014, 08:24 AM

Firn

04-15-2014, 12:26 PM

The first step of an useful strategic analysis should be to sort the facts:

1) We have Ukraine.

2) We have the other countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia...

The crucial difference between 1 and 2 is that the latter are in TWO organisations with mutual (military) assistence as part of the deal.

In contrast, the Ukraine is member of none. Therefore, to combine in an argument 1+2 does not pass a simple smell test.

Indeed it is just a non-aligned country which has been invaded by Russia, not a NATO or EU country. Sadly from an Ukrainian perspective it seems to be a difference between day and night.

From an European perspective (far) harder economic sanctions, supported by harsher US policies will be effective at inflicting great harm on the Russian economy. Needless to repeat that it's depth and width will mostly depend on the quality, quantity and timelenght of those Western actions.

Inside the EU those who wanted to give Russia chance after chance to de-escalate should be under greatly increased pressure after the latest Russian attacks. We will see what comes out of the latest internal talks.

Europe Stockpiles Gas Against Potential Russian Supply Cut (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/europe-stockpiles-gas-against-potential-russian-supply-cut/497998.html)

Ukraine has stopped to pay for obvious reasons for Russian gas. We will see how well and for how long it can be supplied from the West.

P.S: Every major European power has attacked other countries in the last three hundred years to achieve it's political goals so one can hardly single out Germany or Russia. The key difference IMHO between recent Western actions and Russias is that the latter is waging a war of conquest with the goal to annex territory.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 01:19 PM

An interesting article on the fact that NATO should be building a monument for Putin.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-nato-should-erect-a-monument-to-putin/498022.html

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 01:43 PM

With all the power of the NSA/CIA/DIA that has been released by Snowden we cannot seem to get a single voice intercept of a "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on a single cell phone conversation which if one watches the approximately 20 online videos released by the proRussian defense groups out of eastern Ukraine they are all on cells at every event.

It takes the SBU to release a great cell conversation between Russia area code +7 and "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on the ground in eastern Ukraine concerning the various attacks in and around Donetsk.

There needs to be more of this released daily to western media until it reaches a drumbeat in order to roll over a very good Russian I/O campaign being carried out in Europe and basically ignored by US media.

That is the least the US/NATO can do to provide flanking support if no boots are to be on the ground and until someone can come up with a coherent strategy.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/turchynov-anti-terrorist-operation-has-begun-in-northern-donetsk-343563.html

carl

04-15-2014, 02:51 PM

Outlaw 09:

The things we could do that we aren't doing results in a combination of head banging frustration and amazed wonderment. In addition to what you mention we could detail Putin's financial holdings, especially those abroad. That would cause him big trouble, maybe personally fatal trouble. But we won't do it.

They say God looks out for drunks and Americans but even He expects a little help.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 03:08 PM

kaur

04-15-2014, 03:37 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 04:31 PM

The guy, who is talking from Russian side as contact person is identified as Alexander Borodai. He was in Prohhanov's camp (the guy who compared Stalin and Putin in one table) which means conservative Russian pro Soviet union movement. Prohhanov has journal Zavtra and TV channel Den-TV (which motto is fight against Bolotnaja movement). Prohhanov is connected to Rogozin's "Rodina" and leads "Rodina's" splinter movement http://dobrovol.info/ This movement is has cooperation with cossacs movements across Russia. If you follow videos from Eastern Ukriane, you can see fat guys in camoflage and cossack hats. My speculation is that Borodai is coordinating cossack units from Russia in coordination with his supervisors. According to open sources he left Zavtra to murky waters of PR business. It seems that this time this is black propaganda XXL. Putin's spokesperson Peskov says that there are no Russian troops. There are just paramilitaries.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

kaur---went through the YouTube video---saw the fat guy with Cossack hat--but who were the small group of about 6-7 who unloaded from the truck and one was carrying the rocket launcher over his shoulder----they were better equipped and more professional.

Have you been listening to/watching the proRussian eastern Ukrainian videos being released on------just my intuition ---once they got into a number of the buildings the various groups seem to be running out of steam as I think they thought many more from the locals would be supporting them and they are not---also some of the road blocks seem to be thinly manned and by unarmed types.

http://rusvesna.su/video

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 05:28 PM

Interesting that Interfax carried this statement this evening about the attempted stopping of Ukrainian airborne troops by the eastern Ukraine local self defense types who evidently took a beating because the troops fought back.

April 15, 2014 19:54 Up to 11 people killed in Kramatorsk airfield battle - Rossiya 24

MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) - Between four and eleven people have been killed in a battle at the airport in Kramatorsk, a correspondent for the Rossiya 24 television channel said.

"Indeed, there are fatalities. Efforts are under way to clarify their number, which is between four and eleven people," the correspondent reported live on Tuesday.

As a result of clashes the Ukrainian troops opened fire against self-defense fighters who tried to stop paratroopers from landing at the airfield in Kramatorsk, he said.

kaur

04-15-2014, 05:51 PM

JMA

04-15-2014, 05:53 PM

Not a bad tactic to bring in the unarmed once the occupation is successful as it prevents the use of subsonic suppressed to take out any strutting armed thugs outside the building. Where a (armed) target offers itself it would need to be video'd to prove the target was armed at the time of the shot to counter the obvious Russia propaganda spin that will follow. Is Ukraine capable or under pressure from the US not to respond to the occupations?

kaur---went through the YouTube video---saw the fat guy with Cossack hat--but who were the small group of about 6-7 who unloaded from the truck and one was carrying the rocket launcher over his shoulder----they were better equipped and more professional.

Have you been listening to/watching the proRussian eastern Ukrainian videos being released on------just my intuition ---once they got into a number of the buildings the various groups seem to be running out of steam as I think they thought many more from the locals would be supporting them and they are not---also some of the road blocks seem to be thinly manned and by unarmed types.

http://rusvesna.su/video

Firn

04-15-2014, 06:35 PM

So it seems that the Ukrainian leadership has at last decided to confront the military aggression with military means. It is a dangerous path, but what were the alternatives? Letting Russia taking over other regions unopposed?

Putin played va banque in Crimea and won, so far at limited economic costs, in that local conflict and he clearly decided to cast the dice again. Who knows what he expected, other easy gains? So far he has pushed the desperate opponent in using for the first time it's military. Will we see Russian troops invading with full force?

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 06:36 PM

Here is information that cossacks from "Crimean front" arrived to Slavyansk.

http://novoross.info/people/print:page,1,25094-v-slavyanske-vse-spokoyno-kazaki-vozvraschayut-iskonnye-slavyanskie-zemli-foto.html

http://www.mk.ru/politics/article/2014/04/13/1013337-russkaya-vesna-pervaya-krov.html

kauer---like the videos and photos you are finding.

Reference the first link---the dude in the floppy campaign hat was also in the Crimea in a set of other Crimean videos. Same hat same guy.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 06:41 PM

It seems when an quasi independent organization makes a finding after being on the ground in the Ukraine--ie proRussians are not having their human rights violated.

Moscow flips out as it does not fit the FSB I/O messaging.

From Interfax today:

04/15 20:30 MOSCOW HAS IMPRESSION REPORT OF UN HIGH COMMISSIONER'S OFFICE ON STATE OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN UKRAINE FORGED UNDER CONCLUSIONS SET IN ADVANCE - LUKASHEVICH

04/15 21:06 OHCHR's Ukraine report gives impression of being fabricated - Lukashevich

JMA

04-15-2014, 06:41 PM

So it seems that the Ukrainian leadership has at last decided to confront the military aggression with military means.

Got the sign-off from Brennan during his visit?

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 06:51 PM

Got the sign off from Brennan during his visit?

JMA---what is interesting is that while the WH only confirmed his visit late yesterday---Russian via Interfax was saying the same thing but on Saturday 1) he was in Kiev on the weekend which the WH finally admitted and 2) Russians were also via press releases saying the same thing that he had given the go ahead.

Think it just took "western Ukrainian" military units time to get into position since the eastern security and police are nowhere to be seen.

JMA

04-15-2014, 06:57 PM

Can you think of any other reason Brennan would visit Ukraine?

JMA---what is interesting is that while the WH only confirmed his visit late yesterday---Russian via Interfax was saying the same thing but on Saturday 1) he was in Kiev on the weekend which the WH finally admitted and 2) Russians were also via press releases saying the same thing that he had given the go ahead.

Think it just took "western Ukrainian" military units time to get into position since the eastern security and police are nowhere to be seen.

kaur

04-15-2014, 07:03 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 07:45 PM

Outlaw, you are welcome.

Look at the guy at 3:37 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

Find the guy here http://www.pravdasevera.ru/upload/iblock/350/350d84f9c851345954c5301de13d790f.jpg

This news says that cossacks from Russian Archangelsk returned home.

http://www.pravdasevera.ru/agency/society/kotlasskie_kazaki_vernulis_iz_kryma_domoy/

http://m.vk.com/severnyotdel

kauer---can you check the following link-----there are three videos of the airborne assault on the airfield.

http://rusvesna.su/video

Then and these two videos are the important ones---it depicts a shoulder fired manpad (impossible to see which model)---who fired it and where and since it looks like the copter went down was possibly a Mi8.

There is a symbol in the upper left side of the video---have you seen this logo before.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 07:49 PM

Can you think of any other reason Brennan would visit Ukraine?

JMA----there is the possibility that he was briefing on the locations of Russian troop concentrations in order to assist in the correct positioning of Ukrainian troops which were rumored to have been pulled into the central interior.

There could have been info passed from intercepts as well figuring the SBU was intercepting as well.

But internally there is a deep fear of the SBU still being tied to the FSB.

kaur

04-15-2014, 08:07 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 09:35 PM

Can you think of any other reason Brennan would visit Ukraine?

JMA---there is also another possibility---shooters/trainers on the ground. When Russia via Interfax got excited about Grey Stone (US) being in the Ukraine--response from Grey Stone was ---no comment.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2014, 09:56 PM

:)

The headline says that in Krematogorsk was shot Assad's helicopter.

Compare with this video http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9893782/Syria-rebels-shoot-down-helicopter.html

kaur---many thanks--definitely a shoot down in Syria via a manpad which at least confirms they have been sent into Syria via Turkey/RSA.

So did they just post it to impress their readers thinking none would question the jihadi logo? or to indicate they have manpads as well?

JMA

04-15-2014, 10:24 PM

But why him and not some low profile person? What was the purpose of letting Russia - and the world - know the CIA was active in Ukraine?

JMA----there is the possibility that he was briefing on the locations of Russian troop concentrations in order to assist in the correct positioning of Ukrainian troops which were rumored to have been pulled into the central interior.

There could have been info passed from intercepts as well figuring the SBU was intercepting as well.

But internally there is a deep fear of the SBU still being tied to the FSB.

JMA

04-15-2014, 10:27 PM

JMA---there is also another possibility---shooters/trainers on the ground. When Russia via Interfax got excited about Grey Stone (US) being in the Ukraine--response from Grey Stone was ---no comment.

Of course the US has some - how many ? - men on the ground. What does Russia think? That the US is completely out of it?

04-15-2014, 11:54 PM

Dayuhan

04-16-2014, 12:46 AM

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

There's a difference between turning your back on people and sexpecting them to do their share... especially when their cooperation is a necessary part of whatever is to be done.

Poles, Czechs, and Estonians are NATO members and should take up their perceived needs with NATO, not with the US. Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova are in more ambiguous circumstances, but still IMO they are best off presenting their own perceived needs (not for us to be telling them what they need) to NATO, not to the US directly. Obviously the US will be a large part of the discussion with NATO, but opening a bilateral channel is just one more way of encouraging the rest of Europe to avoid participation. That would be a mistake, because in the long term it's economic issues that will bring Russia to heel (as they did for the Soviets) and European participation is essential to that. No reason to let them slip into the old "let the Americans deal with it" groove.

The Soviet Union was contained, and ultimately collapsed, without lighting off WW3. Russia can be dealt with the same way. The containment of the Soviet Union involved territorial concessions, especially in the early stages, that were rather unpleasant for the people involved, though a good deal less unpleasant than WW3 would have been. Those concessions didn't mark the end of American power, they weren't a terminal slide that ended in the loss of Hawaii and Alaska. They may not have been a good thing, but they were a necessary thing, and at the end of the day the Cold War was won despite them, without resort to a direct confrontation that could easily have gone nuclear. That can be done again, and it's likely to be easier this time around: today's Russia is not the Soviet Union and lacks many of the capacities the Soviets had. The US is not sole guarantor of the security of everyone everywhere. A major contributor, yes... but if we try to do everything everywhere for everyone we'll be broke in a decade and unable to do anything for anyone, including ourselves.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 05:57 AM

What makes you so sure that the three letter agencies aren't being quite successful and have just gotten their security act back together as a result of incidents like Snowden and Manning?

You may recall that leaking to the press of the sort that you bemoan is not being done presently has caused damage to US foreign relations. So I would not be surprised that a pretty strict "gag" order is on them as well.

And just maybe much of that 3-letter power has been dissipated by Snowden's revelations to his new hosts.

wm---we can agree to disagree as one from the old generation of intelligence that lived well really well living within the intelligence "bible" handed to us after if one remembers Nixon's years of even Army Intel directing spying on US citizens---believe me intelligence can live within the law extremely well.

If they had done it correctly and targeted jihadi's and related types instead of literally vacuuming the entire internet just because they could do it and targeting even allied leaders who we do need as of now the NSA would not be in the corner the way it is now.

What the Russians pulled in Crimea was after an intense study of our capabilities as they have been watching us since the wall came down and they themselves know the abilities of the internet since they are one of the greatest hacking and criminal internet thugs.

What we missed and I attempted during two Army exercises with Russian peacekeepers AV12/13 to tell the Army but they were only interested in spys among them---was 1) just why did the Russians approach us and wanted within 90 days an exercise after 5 yrs of silence and 2) they openly spoke of the new professional Russian Army and we failed to understand just what they were talking about---it was just that professional army that moved into the Crimea---it is the draft army sitting on the eastern border but it is the professional one on the southern border. Heck for the first time in over 60 years we were able to truly see and understand their decision making processes which was a first but no Army intel seemed to not be interested as not a single report was written.

Now back to releasing intercepts---the NSA can in fact release via YouTube just as the SBU did simply the calls with English subtitled and make no reference to methods and or procedures--the Russians know we listen so why do we hide the fact ---with every intercept that proves their interference is another nail in the public opinion coffin.

If you have read Dave Maxwells' recent comments on both UW and political warfare that is what we are in so use our abilities --and it is without boots on the ground.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 06:07 AM

But why him and not some low profile person? What was the purpose of letting Russia - and the world - know the CIA was active in Ukraine?

JMA---next to the fear of the US BMD abilities that would defeat their ICBM threat the CIA is the next biggest fear.

IMHO the open showing does two things---signals US intentions to support and two it brings into play for the Russian intel---if in fact there are shooters on the ground will they focus on specifically the special ops/intelligence types on the ground in the Ukraine.

The current security operation shows a step by step one object after the other op--and will probably then encircle the main admin buildings that have heavily armed types in them and then no food, water and electricity and then it is waiting them out ---really do believe the UA does not want civilian loses and if you notice their messaging is these are terrorists tearing the Ukraine apart in order to separate proRussians who do not really want to join Russia but want greater autonomy which is OK and what the government says it wants in the long run.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 06:15 AM

Sorry---this is in Russian but it is an interview with the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior yesterday stating that initially there were initially 150 Russian special ops in the Ukraine now over 300 and the numbers are climbing---and they are war experienced --so to me Spretnaz and GRU intel types.

http://www.unian.ua/politics/908273-na-donechchini-kilkist-zelenih-cholovichkiv-zbilshuetsya-kerivnik-atts.html

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 11:54 AM

JMA---next to the fear of the US BMD abilities that would defeat their ICBM threat the CIA is the next biggest fear.

IMHO the open showing does two things---signals US intentions to support and two it brings into play for the Russian intel---if in fact there are shooters on the ground will they focus on specifically the special ops/intelligence types on the ground in the Ukraine.

The current security operation shows a step by step one object after the other op--and will probably then encircle the main admin buildings that have heavily armed types in them and then no food, water and electricity and then it is waiting them out ---really do believe the UA does not want civilian loses and if you notice their messaging is these are terrorists tearing the Ukraine apart in order to separate proRussians who do not really want to join Russia but want greater autonomy which is OK and what the government says it wants in the long run.

JMA---BMD is their worst nightmare--why because if the ICMB nuclear threat is negated what then are they do as a supposed superpower---all nuclear threats become nothing. Then they feel fully contained and encircled---you see their frustration with BMD in this Interfax press release from today.

April 16, 2014 13:40 Defense Ministry: U.S. does not respond to Russian proposal about European missile defense

MOSCOW. April 16 (Interfax-AVN) - Russia has proposed a way out of the standoff created by the U.S. deployment of missile defense elements in Europe but the United States is unwilling to make contact, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said.

"We made good propositions concerning cooperation on missile defense to the Americans at the negotiations with U.S. colleagues in New York City in December. This is the most pressing issue in Russian-U.S. relations, not to mention Ukraine. We were expecting our colleagues in February and are waiting for the consultations to continue but they never arrived. One may say that their silence is the answer, and if it is we can accept it," Antonov said in an interview with television station Rossiya 24.

"We have suggested a way out of the standoff, which takes into consideration concerns of the Russian side and the Americans. We would have broken even and moved on," Antonov said.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 12:00 PM

Stan

04-16-2014, 02:30 PM

Can you think of any other reason Brennan would visit Ukraine?

Mark,
Just about any 3-letter abbreviated USG organization is stationed at American Embassies abroad.

The irony herein, is that some think Bennan's visit is something new that has never been in the countries mentioned in this thread, and, for that matter, many other threads herein.

His staff has been there for nearly decades as they are here and in Moscow. C'mon guys :rolleyes:

Stan

04-16-2014, 02:35 PM

kaur---a new SBU released cell intercept is quite interesting---they might later shift it to a separate link today as they did yesterday..

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/insurgents-in-kramatorsk-in-armored-personnel-carriers-fly-russian-flag-live-update-343745.html

Outlaw,

Does this BS sound familiar ?

training and exercises (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/insurgents-in-kramatorsk-in-armored-personnel-carriers-fly-russian-flag-live-update-343745.html)

We have 10 aircraft and maybe 30 jar heads. Hmmm, I must be imagining one hell of a dog fight against 300 plus fighters and one million debilitated Russian soldiers with two presidents both with their index fingers on the nuke button.

:wry:

kaur

04-16-2014, 02:53 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 08:05 PM

JMA---there is also another possibility---shooters/trainers on the ground. When Russia via Interfax got excited about Grey Stone (US) being in the Ukraine--response from Grey Stone was ---no comment.

JMA/Stan---my two previous comments on Brennan's visit were close to being correct based on this Daily Beast article from today.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/16/cia-director-s-trip-to-kiev-was-a-warning-to-putin.html

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 08:11 PM

Outlaw, Ukrainian forces are in delicate situation. The small group of armed opposition is behind civilian screen. Ukrainian forces just can't drive through the aggressive crowd. Correct me, but I think that US units were in similiar situation in Mogadishu. Russians were in this sitation in first Chechen war, where civilians stopped tank column. Ukrainians need precision strike capacity, if they want to finish this media show. On the other hand, I don't know how big is the crowd :confused:

kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all groups.

At the same time it would also depict a distinct lack of local population support.

With the armed groups inside a building they cannot be roaming around outside thus it allows Ukrainian special ops to focus on the Russian teams inside eastern Ukraine.

Brennan's visit this weekend sent a clear message to Putin especially since the CIA has deep abilities in the world of guerrilla warfare.

Stan

04-16-2014, 08:23 PM

JMA/Stan---my two previous comments on Brennan's visit were close to being correct based on this Daily Beast article from today.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/16/cia-director-s-trip-to-kiev-was-a-warning-to-putin.html

Outlaw,

Not sure about your past, but I have seven consecutive tours at US Embassies, countless ship visits, Marine landing and D2 level visitors similar to above.

In addition to his newly elected position, he is also responsible for political and social trends. Unfortunately, that often involves visits to some of the most inhospitable places on creation.

He was doing his job :D

Stan

04-16-2014, 08:32 PM

kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all groups.

I disagree. We left them all alone without a hint of interest. That led to a small incursion, but lasted only minutes. We've learned that cutting off water and electricity had little affect. They were prepared for that, but not being ignored and no press.

At the same time it would also depict a distinct lack of local population support.

Here's the part you can't control. They may be concerned about public support and press, but they are puppets of the Kremlin and will stay there until told otherwise.

With the armed groups inside a building they cannot be roaming around outside thus it allows Ukrainian special ops to focus on the Russian teams inside eastern Ukraine.

This presumes the Ukrainian SOF are doing that. What we are hearing is they are not and their borders are vacated. Scared comes to mind.

Brennan's visit this weekend sent a clear message to Putin especially since the CIA has deep abilities in the world of guerrilla warfare.

I don't get this message. Good timing... yes. Had he guaranteed billions on national TV and 50,000 troops, that would have been a message. He obviously could not and did not. Not sure about your past with these dudes, but sharpshooters and Rangers they are not. In fact, I doubt a single one could pass the Q course.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 08:33 PM

Outlaw,

Not sure about your past, but I have seven consecutive tours at US Embassies, countless ship visits, Marine landing and D2 level visitors similar to above.

In addition to his newly elected position, he is also responsible for political and social trends. Unfortunately, that often involves visits to some of the most inhospitable places on creation.

He was doing his job :D

Stan---and on top of that he served with Obama on the NSC which gives him more authority in the eyes of some.

More over as CIA chief he has a sizeable private shooter community working for him that is use to unconventional warfare--that was the core message to Putin.

Sometimes impressions are what messaging is all about---and if one noticed the roaming armed groups ceased especially after the voice intercepts became public.

04-16-2014, 08:33 PM

kaur

04-16-2014, 08:45 PM

Outlaw:

kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all groups.

First they have to find the target, that may move around, which means good intelligence. Then they must be prepared to violent crowd, which means that they must have good nerves and training. They must set up cordons to contain object. I'm just curious how many times you have thought that this cossack group is ideal target for Predator operator.

Are you reading Russian propaganda :)

http://delyagin.livejournal.com/1493782.html

Tomorrow speaks Putin to his people. He must have message. Stay tuned.

Stan

04-16-2014, 08:47 PM

Stan---and on top of that he served with Obama on the NSC which gives him more authority in the eyes of some.

More over as CIA chief he has a sizeable private shooter community working for him that is use to unconventional warfare--that was the core message to Putin.

Sometimes impressions are what messaging is all about---and if one noticed the roaming armed groups ceased especially after the voice intercepts became public.

Yep, he is known for that.

Short story however. A former field grade ended up Clinton's adviser to Africa. The very same who thought a 155 that went through an adobe hut without going high order must have been a "solid shot" tank round. UXO anyone ?

The same field grade also thought he could send unarmed troops into Somalia and Rwanda.

Providing advice based on little background worries me. How about running around 800,000 pissed off rebels with 17 rounds of .45 ammo in a week ?

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 08:48 PM

I disagree. We left them all alone without a hint of interest. That led to a small incursion, but lasted only minutes. We've learned that cutting off water and electricity had little affect. They were prepared for that, but not being ignored and no press.

Here's the part you can't control. They may be concerned about public support and press, but they are puppets of the Kremlin and will stay there until told otherwise.

This presumes the Ukrainian SOF are doing that. What we are hearing is they are not and their borders are vacated. Scared comes to mind.

I don't get this message. Good timing... yes. Had he guaranteed billions on national TV and 50,000 troops, that would have been a message. He obviously could not and did not. Not sure about your past with these dudes, but sharpshooters and Rangers they are not. In fact, I doubt a single one could pass the Q course.

Stan---it is the shooter community that Brennan represents to Putin---Ukrainian SF has been working with USASF for awhile especially at the International Training Center in Germany.

And there are a number of ex SF on contracts inside the Ukraine as well---that is why Interfax got so antsy about Grey Stone---remember Interfax was carrying the comments about Brennan long before the US even admitted it to US media so I have a feeling the Grey Stone comment is correct as well.

Grey Stone when asked had the small statement "no comment" and the State Department when asked stated "no US military are in the Ukraine"---they did not say no contractors were not there.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 08:56 PM

I tend to rate The Daily Beast as a D3 to F6 source. YMMV

Everything unless submitted to a thorough confirm or denied is always F6 regardless who reports.

DB has been actually over the last several weeks a conduit for some in DC and the stories get picked up and passed on into Europe where they make their way into Putin---there is a reason for their releases.

There is an interplay going on with Brennan's visit and this report to reinforce in Russia the messaging especially since those that released to DB know it will be picked up and passed on.

If one noticed the roaming armed groups were remarkably quiet today and no additional buildings were taken.

Stan

04-16-2014, 09:02 PM

Grey Stone when asked had the small statement "no comment" and the State Department when asked stated "no US military are in the Ukraine"---they did not say no contractors were not there.

Dude,
We are all taught to say "no comment". That's why we taxpayers fund public affairs officers and lawyers :mad:

I'll bite...

If we have some distorted version of Blackwater, it seems they are not doing Julliet Sierra !

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:07 PM

Yep, he is known for that.

Short story however. A former field grade ended up Clinton's adviser to Africa. The very same who thought a 155 that went through an adobe hut without going high order must have been a "solid shot" tank round. UXO anyone ?

The same field grade also thought he could send unarmed troops into Somalia and Rwanda.

Providing advice based on little background worries me. How about running around 800,000 pissed off rebels with 17 rounds of .45 ammo in a week ?

Stan---17 rounds in a week or what about 2.16 per day---hope there was an emergency resupply planned somewhere along the route.

He would not have just gone there without a thorough walk through of the why and without no WH buy in---again IMO he was just the messenger and for that one does not need to know more about 155s but there is a difference between 155s and 120s that is kind of at least common knowledge but that takes having a little experience along the way.

What I personally know about 155s is that one can call it in to 25 meters from your position if in a bomb crater while protecting your ears then split the difference on the next rounds as the NVA were on the verge of rolling over us and were hugging us.

Stan

04-16-2014, 09:07 PM

If one noticed the roaming armed groups were remarkably quiet today and no additional buildings were taken.

Outlaw,
They just purportedly seized Ukrainian armored vehicles.

Funny how all those common citizens know their way around armor. And to think we actually train our idiots to drive metal boxes around Europe :rolleyes:

They are darn lucky I was not behind the wheel, or we would be digging holes.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:22 PM

Dude,
We are all taught to say "no comment". That's why we taxpayers fund public affairs officers and lawyers :mad:

I'll bite...

If we have some distorted version of Blackwater, it seems they are not doing Julliet Sierra !

Stan but a no comment elicits in readers minds a potential yes where as are you crazy we have nothing to do nor any contracts with the Ukraine appears to the same reading class to be a well maybe not.

It is the DoS statement that actually cements together with the no comment for some readers that there are contractors in place.

Remember the reading group of these comments are kind of a focus group for this messaging.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:31 PM

Outlaw,
They just purportedly seized Ukrainian armored vehicles.

Funny how all those common citizens know their way around armor. And to think we actually train our idiots to drive metal boxes around Europe :rolleyes:

They are darn lucky I was not behind the wheel, or we would be digging holes.

Stan---if you think about it these events are a well calculated I/O campaign designed for the mass media for the US/NATO/EU and for the Russian population themselves.

Masses and masses of events hitting the main stream media creates the illusion of a really really big popular uprising---but what is noticeably missing in the released media are the large masses of people that are needed to prove those that took the buildings are at the vanguard of a popular uprising.

If the polling is correct then a even a majority of proRussians do not want to be taken over by Russia.

When one looks at the videos being released by the separatists the local population is missing--and that is interesting and might explain why the roaming armed groups have quieted down. The videos show many demonstrators setting up things and or in buildings or around building or APCs, but the really large 5K plus crowds waving flags and yelling support as in Maidan is missing---they are trying to recreate the Maidan but it is not working.

Stan

04-16-2014, 09:36 PM

Stan---17 rounds in a week or what about 2.16 per day---hope there was an emergency resupply planned somewhere along the route.

That’s the point. There is no resupply point nor was anything planned. Army doctrine even today does not count on a 3-man team in a genocide, nor does it count on illogical calculations of an egotistical Russian in mid-life crisis. BTW, that is all I had on any given day for months... two 8-round mags and one in the barrel.

He would not have just gone there without a thorough walk through of the why and without no WH buy in---again IMO he was just the messenger and for that one does not need to know more about 155s but there is a difference between 155s and 120s that is kind of at least common knowledge but that takes having a little experience along the way.

What I personally know about 155s is that one can call it in to 25 meters from your position if in a bomb crater while protecting your ears then split the difference on the next rounds as the NVA were on the verge of rolling over us and were hugging us.

He got it wrong. Period. There are no such things as solid shot tank rounds and he was counting on the fact that Africans are scared of US Military uniforms. The bluff, as you know, didn’t work.

At least you get it, but you didn’t make it to POTUS adviser status. So you are stuck with us.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:38 PM

Stan

04-16-2014, 09:43 PM

Stan---six APCs and approximately 30 troops does not make a disintegrating Army---but looks great on Russian TV and to locals.

It is all about the I/O campaign.

Dude,
Been driving, firing, instructing and repairing 107s, 109s, 110s, 578s, 88s, etc.

forgive me, I was being my sarcastic self :D

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:49 PM

That’s the point. There is no resupply point nor was anything planned. Army doctrine even today does not count on a 3-man team in a genocide, nor does it count on illogical calculations of an egotistical Russian in mid-life crisis. BTW, that is all I had on any given day for months... two 8-round mags and one in the barrel.

He got it wrong. Period. There are no such things as solid shot tank rounds and he was counting on the fact that Africans are scared of US Military uniforms. The bluff, as you know, didn’t work.

At least you get it, but you didn’t make it to POTUS adviser status. So you are stuck with us.

Stan--learned along time ago if you bluff be prepared to have it called.

Had an interesting conversation today with a Russian business person here in Berlin and he had two comments that stood out---he is well trained, successful not connected to the Russian mob or FSB and not an oligarch and I have known him for awhile since our university days in Berlin.

1. he called Putin an aggressive agitating arch conservative nationalist and
2. he indicated that if the West truly wanted to get Putin's attention implement sanctions that impact western businesses---meaning he will immediately pay attention if he sees the West willing to damage their own economies means to him the West is serious

He also mentioned the economy is in really bad shape and tittering on a full blown recession that will last at least five years.

Noticed today even Interfax mentioned that the 2014 budget has slide into a massive deficit-far more than ever anticipated by the CB.

Then he will back down anything less will be simply ignored.

ligrach---just a hard worker

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:52 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2014, 09:59 PM

It appears that a good portion of the SBU is still functioning and supporting the government---a really good article on the Russian activities inside the Ukraine that the SBU is picking up on.

Wish the NSA/CIA would release as much as the SBU is releasing to the mass media.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/sbu-predicts-russian-backed-murder-to-justify-full-scale-invasion-343855.html

davidbfpo

04-17-2014, 01:34 PM

An interesting, short commentary by Anne Applebaum, the sub-title says it all:
Forget D-Day or “shock and awe.” The Kremlin is reinventing invasions with thugs, criminals, and lies.

As a historian, with a book on the Ukraine, she writes well:
Many of these tactics are familiar, though we haven’t seen them for a long time..... (Russian)slick modern media—is genuinely new, so much so that it’s fair to say we are witnessing a new kind of war, and a new kind of invasion.

Link:http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/04/vladimir_putin_s_new_war_in_ukraine_the_kremlin_is _reinventing_how_russia.html

TheCurmudgeon

04-17-2014, 02:29 PM

Protesters say that after the soldiers were given food and water and had a "nice conversation" with residents, Russian flags were raised on the vehicles and they went "rolling off to Slovyansk."http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/04/16/303646309/in-ukraine-reports-of-soldiers-switching-to-pro-russia-side

Perhaps sending MRE's was exactly what the Ukrainians needed, since all it takes is a little food to get their Soldiers to change sides.

Stan

04-17-2014, 03:05 PM

Perhaps sending MRE's was exactly what the Ukrainians needed, since all it takes is a little food to get their Soldiers to change sides.

So long as they are not Russian MREs (http://www.mreinfo.com/international/russia/russian-ration-review.html). If you have never tried one, consider yourself lucky ;)

The yellow pill is a vitamin tablet? It should be eaten in the morning, then the ration tastes great. I didn't eat this thing - now it's too late.

Stan

04-17-2014, 03:43 PM

But at least they finally get it :rolleyes:

Meanwhile, Ukraine's State Border Service (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27065782) has been quoted by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency as saying that it is "significantly" restricting entry into the country by adult men from Russia because of the risk of "acts of terror".

They've obviously not witnessed what Russian females are capable of !

AdamG

04-17-2014, 03:57 PM

Kolomoisky has set a reward for the capture of Russian commandos: 10000 USD for each and 1000 $ for the automatic

The Deputy Governor of Dnepropetrovsk region Boris Filatov proposed new methods of dealing with terrorists.

That's what he wrote on his Facebook page, passes the Censor No.

He said: the first units of the specbatal′ona "Dnepr" formed and ready for combat missions. Roadblocks are established ".
http://kiev1.org/en/nagrada-za-poimku-diversantov.html

Stan

04-17-2014, 04:17 PM

Nice find, Adam !

Interesting maneuver considering the ethnic Russian youth were paid less than 10 euros each to demonstrate in front of the American Embassy and destroy diplomatic vehicles, and, were all collected together by their school teacher.

Later in 2007, we discovered the price for going haywire was increased to 20 euros and the alcohol was free.

Seems the Estonian Russians needed less incentive to go haywire and Vodka was the catalyst :D

carl

04-17-2014, 04:28 PM

An interesting, short commentary by Anne Applebaum, the sub-title says it all:

As a historian, with a book on the Ukraine, she writes well:

Link:http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/04/vladimir_putin_s_new_war_in_ukraine_the_kremlin_is _reinventing_how_russia.html

It is amazing that by merely removing patches from the uniforms of their troops, or by sending them in in plain clothes wearing balaclavas the Russians can so completely flummox and paralyze the West. It is like the guy on the wanted poster tells the cop 'No that's not me. The guy on the poster is wearing a hat and I'm not.' and the cop says 'Oh yeah. You're right. You don't have a hat on.' and then let's him go.

Anne Applebaum's book The Iron Curtain is a wonderful book that has many many small war lessons to be learned. Of course some of those things can only be used by regimes of brutal killers.

Fuchs

04-17-2014, 04:55 PM

It is amazing that by merely removing patches from the uniforms of their troops, or by sending them in in plain clothes wearing balaclavas the Russians can so completely flummox and paralyze the West. It is like the guy on the wanted poster tells the cop 'No that's not me. The guy on the poster is wearing a hat and I'm not.' and the cop says 'Oh yeah. You're right. You don't have a hat on.' and then let's him go.

I couldn't resist...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fZhj_ikcrdE/Tg99qyIMheI/AAAAAAAADN4/vNgts2y1qfc/s1600/These%2BArent%2BThe%2BDroids%2BYoure%2BLooking%2BF or%2B006.jpg

and

http://youtu.be/diuQiXt5qE4?t=7m3s

AmericanPride

04-17-2014, 04:58 PM

mirhond

04-17-2014, 05:21 PM

you can translate the website for us that is if you agree with the website.[/B]

http://rusvesna.su/

A journalist from Russia’s Moskva FM Radio broadcasting from Donetsk asked a local rebel commander, "Can you tell me your name?" He answered: "Of course, I am Paramonov Pavel Vladimirovytch.”
"Are you from Donetsk?"
"Of course not. I am from Yefremov, Tula region [Russia]."
"What are you doing in Donetsk?"
“I am helping brotherly people to defend their rights, do you have another questions?"

again proving you only respond to what you want nothing more nothing less.

so you agreed with my previous comments on this Interfax press release that the Russian leadership is leading their country based on secretly conducted polling? ...since you agreed with the scientific polling that is guiding Putin

1. I may translate anything from this site, regardless of my attitude to the content. What do you want to be translated?
2. I dont have any other questions to that guy, do you?
3. Yes, I answer as I please, just like you, why should I do otherwise? To Quoque - my favorite fallacy ;)
4. Haven't read that post/don't care. Sorry, common sence does not allow me to agree/disagree with anything I have no idea about.

Meanwhile, Irina Farion, deputy of "Svoboda" party, teach children the "right" names. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vfVocpx5coM
fun starts at 0:45
Farion: What's your name?
Girl: Olenka
Farion: Such a beauty, never-ever be Aliona (Russian form of the same name)...or you have to pack pack your stuff and go to Moscow.
1:12
Farion: Never adress Marichka as Masha, because Masha isn't ours, Mashas live out there.

picture to attract attention

http://lurkmore.so/images/thumb/4/4b/Ukri.jpg/180px-Ukri.jpg

Who we are? - Ukrainians!
What do we want? - Better lives!
What do we do to have it? - Nothing!
Who to blame for this? - State!

carl

04-17-2014, 05:50 PM

mirhond

04-17-2014, 05:51 PM

Intel alert! Intel alert! (or whatever you guys call it)

Mirhond is back up. The silovikian orcs may be up to something in the next few hours or tomorrow.

Relax, You personally, are not in danger. Yet:D

ps. You have a misguided conception: we are not the orcs - we are Imperium Humanum, and you are the Eldars, tolerable but need to be watched closely, just in case :D
Emperor protects!
http://img0.joyreactor.cc/pics/post/warhammer-40000-%D1%84%D1%8D%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%8B-imperium-%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F-%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D 0%B0%D1%8F-1128624.jpeg

carl

04-17-2014, 05:55 PM

Ref the edit and add by Mirhond just a few minutes ago, the drawing thing.

Man that's just straight up agit/prop and clutter. He/they did the clutter the site stuff before but this is the first blatant agit/prop I remember.

Fascinating.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 06:10 PM

1. I may translate anything from this site, regardless of my attitude to the content. What do you want to be translated?
2. I dont have any other questions to that guy, do you?
3. Yes, I answer as I please, just like you, why should I do otherwise? To Quoque - my favorite fallacy ;)
4. Haven't read that post/don't care. Sorry, common sence does not allow me to agree/disagree with anything I have no idea about.

Meanwhile, Irina Farion, deputy of "Svoboda" party, teach children the "right" names. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vfVocpx5coM
fun starts at 0:45
Farion: What's your name?
Girl: Olenka
Farion: Such a beauty, never-ever be Aliona (Russian form of the same name)...or you have to pack pack your stuff and go to Moscow.
1:12
Farion: Never adress Marichka as Masha, because Masha isn't ours, Mashas live out there.

picture to attract attention

http://lurkmore.so/images/thumb/4/4b/Ukri.jpg/180px-Ukri.jpg

Who we are? - Ukrainians!
What do we want? - Better lives!
What do we do to have it? - Nothing!
Who to blame for this? - State!

mirhond---really still awaiting your Russian ID---gesh where have you been-- in the bar by chance as the alcohol was supposedly free if you crossed the border into the Ukraine.

On the other hand you might not be after all a Russian FSB agent just an independent informal worker for them.

But again still looking for the Russian ID until then you even be Chinese.

There was an open question to you that you massively tap danced around---you compared Putin to Hitler and Putin being a Nazi--still stand by your previous comments?

carl

04-17-2014, 06:11 PM

Fuchs:

How about this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqomZQMZQCQ

AmericanPride

04-17-2014, 06:13 PM

You got anything to back up that contention? Outlaw says just the opposite, that from what he's seen the Russian provocateurs have very little support beyond themselves, the Russian riot tourists and the paid drunks.

Do you have any evidence other than the claims by made the Ukrainian government itself? :rolleyes: The situation is more complicated than East vs West - just because the Kiev administration is unpopular in eastern Ukraine does not mean that Moscow is popular. The fact of the matter is that eastern Ukrainians for the most part did not participate in the Maiden, and they are not well represented in the new government. Nor are they looking upon the new economic program with any anticipation. This is a prime opportunity for Moscow obviously; it's not a situation created by Moscow from nothing.

The fact of the matter is that well organized, well funded, well trained and well led military and intel units in mufti have huge advantage over a brand new and somewhat disorganized government. I find your suggestions that the Ukrainians are equally at fault in this less than convincing. In fact to me they are just apologies for the violent aggressor.[/None of which actually addresses the fundemental political disposition of eastern Ukrainians in the first place - who, as I have stated repeatedly in previous posts, are not the real conflict in Ukraine. Officials in the Kiev administration, including the President himself, have stated from the beginning that they are effectively on a suicide run in implementing their policies. In other words, they are unconcerned about the expression of any kind of democratic will by the population - ethnic Russians or otherwise - and democracy will not thrawt their agenda. Yatsenyuk is attempting to grab as much political advantage as possible in the short window before the elections. By radically shifting the political stage in his favor, he can significantly shape the outcome of the next election.

So - you are stating that Yatsenyuk, et. al, force out Yanukovych, but that's Russia's fault, not the new Kiev administration. And when they ally with Right Sector and alienate Russian Ukrainians, that's also Moscow's fault, not the Kiev administration. And when they increase taxes, cut subsidies, and dismiss state employees, that's also Moscow's fault, not Yatsenyuk. :rolleyes: The political strategy of Kiev is a failure and Moscow is happily exploiting it.

carl

04-17-2014, 06:28 PM

Do you have any evidence other than the claims by made the Ukrainian government itself? :rolleyes: The situation is more complicated than East vs West - just because the Kiev administration is unpopular in eastern Ukraine does not mean that Moscow is popular. The fact of the matter is that eastern Ukrainians for the most part did not participate in the Maiden, and they are not well represented in the new government. Nor are they looking upon the new economic program with any anticipation. This is a prime opportunity for Moscow obviously; it's not a situation created by Moscow from nothing.

None of which actually addresses the fundemental political disposition of eastern Ukrainians in the first place - who, as I have stated repeatedly in previous posts, are not the real conflict in Ukraine. Officials in the Kiev administration, including the President himself, have stated from the beginning that they are effectively on a suicide run in implementing their policies. In other words, they are unconcerned about the expression of any kind of democratic will by the population - ethnic Russians or otherwise - and democracy will not thrawt their agenda. Yatsenyuk is attempting to grab as much political advantage as possible in the short window before the elections. By radically shifting the political stage in his favor, he can significantly shape the outcome of the next election.

So - you are stating that Yatsenyuk, et. al, force out Yanukovych, but that's Russia's fault, not the new Kiev administration. And when they ally with Right Sector and alienate Russian Ukrainians, that's also Moscow's fault, not the Kiev administration. And when they increase taxes, cut subsidies, and dismiss state employees, that's also Moscow's fault, not Yatsenyuk. :rolleyes: The political strategy of Kiev is a failure and Moscow is happily exploiting it.

I'll restate the question and you can answer it. You got anything to back up your contention that there is popular sentiment in favor of the silovikian orcs crawling around eastern Ukraine?

Yea, yea I get it. The month or two old Ukrainian government is a pox upon the people and they are allied with the Right Sector and democracy will not thwart their agenda. Gee, come to think of it all that sounds familiar. Where did I hear it before? Hmm.

I will make one observation. Russian heavy forces are poised to strike. Russian spec ops and intel forces have already invaded Ukraine and are striking as we speak. Since those guys are pretty well disciplined and are there at Vlad's direction, I'd say it is clear, black and white clear even, that their presence which is the crisis, is Moscow's fault.

But that is just a simple flyover person talking.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 06:29 PM

In all the hype about Russian commandos stirring up trouble, the real point is missed: the new administration in Kiev has near zero legitimacy in Russian populated enclaves. Reading these threads gives the impression that every ethnic Russian in Ukraine is on Moscow's payroll and is armed to the teeth. The fact of the matter is that Russian agitation operations, no matter their extent, would be futile if there was not already popular sentiment in their favor. And while the new administration is struggling to shore up its legitimacy through light military operations, it's preparing for a campaign of economic shocks: slashing gas subsidies, terminating tens of thousands of state employees, and tax increases; all on conditions imposed by the IMF. Now despite all the institutional knowledge on this forum, I have not yet read one person question the political strategy of Kiev and its failure to build support among its population. As I've stated in previous posts, the Kiev government is not an innocent bystander or victim in this chain of events. It brought political instability upon itself, and it's not doing itself any favors by pushing through its economic program.

AP---let's take for the sake of discussion the simple statement that every population within a recognized border so we can exclude the Putin Doctrine then add the simple statement that every population has the inherent right for the Rule of Law and Good Governance as determined by themselves---that is the key by themselves.

If one looks at the Arab Springs and the Color revolts that is what basically drove them because why ---most people want a better life, employment and a future for their children regardless of ideology.

Then if we look at the Ukraine with its massive corruption schemes that made 28 year old Billionaires inside three years and left 42 kilos of gold bars and 5M in USD alone in just one house---we then wonder why the population and it was a cross section of the population that froze and demoed and got killed to express exactly that desire.

Then we take a group of individuals who have not much experience at running a government, an Army and even more importantly internal security and throw them into the fire and ask them to get everything correct the first time out the door---it is like asking someone to jump from a perfectively flying plane without any training.

Then they step up and do it without stating they want to keep those positions and are willing to step aside after elections have been held---all in the interests of their country.

And we think they are perfect and should not be making any mistakes---come on---if they can get it 50% correct then that is massive.

Do you think we were any better organized when the first locals showed up on the Lexington Green and challenged a superpower and that shot was literally heard around the world and reverberated for years---Washington struggled as a commander for years to get it right and we expect these guys in Kiev facing a well trained army and an equally well trained FSB and special ops all the while having a rather untrustworthy military and internal security service behind them and a ethnic population that inside itself does not know what it wants and is being massively hit with a slick I/O campaign. I have stated a number of time the Russian I/O campaign is really worth a doctorial thesis.

I think that on the whole that they have hung on and that is all that counts---and this is the critical piece changed law for law every day since 21 Feb to the structures that are in fact democratic for them the population that started this whole thing.

We cannot ask for more than that---allowing a population to go it's own route if it is comfortable in that decision. After all is that not what we have been preaching for the last 100 years and we call it democracy. Did not Putin call the elections in Crimea as their "self determination"?

AND in the process thrown Putin into panic as this is his worst nightmare for his own population if the Maidan is used as an example when they at some point create their own Color revolt demanding the same things as the Maidan.

kaur

04-17-2014, 06:40 PM

Putin admitted today that Russian troops were in Crimea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-changes-course-admits-russian-troops-were-in-crimea-before-vote/2014/04/17/b3300a54-c617-11e3-bf7a-be01a9b69cf1_story.html

Putin denied and told about self defence units.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/04/285653335/putin-says-those-arent-russian-forces-in-crimea

Shoigu denied also.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/sergei-shoigu-no-russian-troops-in-crimea-338430.html

Ambassador to EU denied too.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1dvz4y_no-russian-troops-in-crimea-airports-says-eu-s-russian-ambassador_news

Ambassador to UN denied too.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5He_LChDISY

Now they say that there are no Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine. Do you belive them?

Americanpride, Yuchenko didn't manage the problem, Yanukovich didn't manage the problem, Kutchma did manage some time. If country is split 50/50 between east and west it needs cooperation between east, west and Ukraine to solve the problem. Like they tried today in Geneva.

AmericanPride

04-17-2014, 06:47 PM

Outlaw,

The Yatsenyuk administration does find itself in a difficult situation, for all of the reasons you have described. But the stated agenda of the administration is not to secure the support of the whole of the population, including the Russian enclaves, but to drive through a specific program of economic austerity before the next elections. Even without Russian agitation, this program is unpopular in eastern Ukraine and it is part of what is driving the discontent and perceptions of illegitimacy. If the policies of the government do not represent the interests of the people - as you have pointed out with the Color Revolutions and with Yanukovych - then what recourses do the people have available? Moscow is obviously using this as leverage in its own favor, which is to be expected, but Moscow did not create this opportunity for itself. At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

I'm not really concerned with the moral responsibility of either party. There is a relatively clear chain of events and each side bears responsibility for their actions and mistakes that have contributed to the escalation of the conflict. But to uncover the actual mechanisms of the conflict, we have to get past assigning narrowly defined, subjective moral perspectives. I think the upcoming elections will be a good opportunity for the politicans in Kiev to demonstrate their committment to democratization, although I suspect there will be accusations and counter-accusations of subversion and corruption throughout. I don't think Kiev has many options - and Yatsenyuk even less - but at some point they will have to address the role of ethnic Russians in the government and the distribution of political power. Whatever the moral merits of either side, that's a political fact. In resolving that question, which was the point of my previous post, Kiev has done itself no favors.

You got anything to back up your contention that there is popular sentiment in favor of the silovikian orcs crawling around eastern Ukraine?

It's actually bad form to put words in other people's mouths. I never stated that "there is popular sentiment in favor of [Moscow]". In fact, I made it pretty clear in my last post directed to you that discontent with Kiev does not necessarily indicate support for Moscow - even if Moscow is exploiting it to its own advantage. Frankly, it's the domination of this discussion by your narrow perspective as well as your character attacks on others that have denied the conversation of its depth and interest.

mirhond

04-17-2014, 06:50 PM

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 06:50 PM

Do you have any evidence other than the claims by made the Ukrainian government itself? :rolleyes: The situation is more complicated than East vs West - just because the Kiev administration is unpopular in eastern Ukraine does not mean that Moscow is popular. The fact of the matter is that eastern Ukrainians for the most part did not participate in the Maiden, and they are not well represented in the new government. Nor are they looking upon the new economic program with any anticipation. This is a prime opportunity for Moscow obviously; it's not a situation created by Moscow from nothing.

None of which actually addresses the fundemental political disposition of eastern Ukrainians in the first place - who, as I have stated repeatedly in previous posts, are not the real conflict in Ukraine. Officials in the Kiev administration, including the President himself, have stated from the beginning that they are effectively on a suicide run in implementing their policies. In other words, they are unconcerned about the expression of any kind of democratic will by the population - ethnic Russians or otherwise - and democracy will not thrawt their agenda. Yatsenyuk is attempting to grab as much political advantage as possible in the short window before the elections. By radically shifting the political stage in his favor, he can significantly shape the outcome of the next election.

So - you are stating that Yatsenyuk, et. al, force out Yanukovych, but that's Russia's fault, not the new Kiev administration. And when they ally with Right Sector and alienate Russian Ukrainians, that's also Moscow's fault, not the Kiev administration. And when they increase taxes, cut subsidies, and dismiss state employees, that's also Moscow's fault, not Yatsenyuk. :rolleyes: The political strategy of Kiev is a failure and Moscow is happily exploiting it.

Let me know when you get over your black and white reading of the situation and restore some color to your perspective.

AP go into the Kiev Post and search the results of a major polling organization that indicates that while the proRussian population in the east is "fearful" of Kiev ---Russia has been extremely good at raising this fear as was determined as well by the UN OCHR team that was on the ground there--and by the way the Russian agiprop is extremely good coupled with special ops on the ground there---some of the best I have seen since our own Pysch Warfare BNs under the old US Army SF.

For slickness from a Russian right wing organization that is recruiting and sending personnel into the Ukraine and is carrying a large number of videos being taken by the self defense groups inside the eastern areas and broadcast to the world of their supporters.

They also issued instructions on how to get into the Ukraine and who to link into with.

http://rusvesna.su/video?page=1

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 06:55 PM

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

mirhond---still waiting for your Russian ID.

Think you took this video from the following link---so I am assuming you work for them as well.

http://rusvesna.su/video?page=1

AmericanPride

04-17-2014, 06:59 PM

AP go into the Kiev Post and search the results of a major polling organization that indicates that while the proRussian population in the east is "fearful" of Kiev ---Russia has been extremely good at raising this fear as was determined as well by the UN OCHR team that was on the ground there--and by the way the Russian agiprop is extremely good coupled with special ops on the ground there---some of the best I have since our own Pysch Warfare BNs under the old US Army SF.

I agree, and that's to be expected in a political contest such as this, especially one in which Russia repeatedly raised many serious concerns that were more or less ignored before the conflict. Knowing this, however, also implies there's responsibility in Kiev for actually building a strategy to counteract it - which, at this point, seems only to be to blast the airwaves with accusations of Russian subversion. If the Kiev IO campaign is directed at ethnic Russians, Kiev seems to be missing one of the major factors in that the originator of the message is just as important - if not more so - as the message itself.

My point is that the Kiev administration has done a poor job in actually attempting to legitimize itself amongst its detractors and fence-sitters, and instead has focused on its economic program (which itself is unpopular). That's because Yatsenyuk himself has stated that his government is on a short-term suicide mission for austerity - they are not concerned about building concensus or facilitating democratic processes. For this failure of strategy in building a sustainable political program, they are responsible. And it's that failure that has given the opening to Moscow and has contributed to the instability of the country. Moscow clearly has an organized strategy. What's the strategy in Kiev?

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 07:12 PM

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;155225]Outlaw,

The Yatsenyuk administration does find itself in a difficult situation, for all of the reasons you have described. But the stated agenda of the administration is not to secure the support of the whole of the population, including the Russian enclaves, but to drive through a specific program of economic austerity before the next elections. Even without Russian agitation, this program is unpopular in eastern Ukraine and it is part of what is driving the discontent and perceptions of illegitimacy. If the policies of the government do not represent the interests of the people - as you have pointed out with the Color Revolutions and with Yanukovych - then what recourses do the people have available? Moscow is obviously using this as leverage in its own favor, which is to be expected, but Moscow did not create this opportunity for itself. At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

AP---the core of your premise is false---if in fact a country has through corruption based on the old Soviet model which has an old fashion economic system still structured on the old Soviet model coupled with a industrial base that still counts advancement in the terms of numbers of things produced and the number of tonnes produced also a relic of the old Soviet economy model tied to an economic model that had the satellite Warsaw Pact countries producing products for the mother land Russia and you have the perfect reason the population rose up.

Remember the Ukraine is in fact an image of Russia with it's four pillar structure for government/governing 1) oligarchs, 2) security services 3) military and 4) criminal gangs.

Which is by the way what is exactly occurring in eastern Ukraine---and it appears that the oligarchs have taken sides and are deeply supporting the Kiev government for whatever reasons down to paying for resistance groups against the self defense groups.

I'm not really concerned with the moral responsibility of either party. There is a relatively clear chain of events and each side bears responsibility for their actions and mistakes that have contributed to the escalation of the conflict. But to uncover the actual mechanisms of the conflict, we have to get past assigning narrowly defined, subjective moral perspectives. I think the upcoming elections will be a good opportunity for the politicans in Kiev to demonstrate their committment to democratization, although I suspect there will be accusations and counter-accusations of subversion and corruption throughout. I don't think Kiev has many options - and Yatsenyuk even less - but at some point they will have to address the role of ethnic Russians in the government and the distribution of political power. Whatever the moral merits of either side, that's a political fact. In resolving that question, which was the point of my previous post, Kiev has done itself no favors.

At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

Come on AP that is not reality--- when the entire world as defined by Russia is resisting your every step how does one define what is correct?

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 07:24 PM

I agree, and that's to be expected in a political contest such as this, especially one in which Russia repeatedly raised many serious concerns that were more or less ignored before the conflict. Knowing this, however, also implies there's responsibility in Kiev for actually building a strategy to counteract it - which, at this point, seems only to be to blast the airwaves with accusations of Russian subversion. If the Kiev IO campaign is directed at ethnic Russians, Kiev seems to be missing one of the major factors in that the originator of the message is just as important - if not more so - as the message itself.

My point is that the Kiev administration has done a poor job in actually attempting to legitimize itself amongst its detractors and fence-sitters, and instead has focused on its economic program (which itself is unpopular). That's because Yatsenyuk himself has stated that his government is on a short-term suicide mission for austerity - they are not concerned about building concensus or facilitating democratic processes. For this failure of strategy in building a sustainable political program, they are responsible. And it's that failure that has given the opening to Moscow and has contributed to the instability of the country. Moscow clearly has an organized strategy. What's the strategy in Kiev?

AP---come on--have you ever had to step through an unmarked mine field with no mine detection equipment and the mines were not buried within the stated doctrinal pattern---I have and if it is compared to the current Ukrainian government which took over on 21 Feb---I do not discuss before that date.

At least they have not hit a single mine and have to a degree reached the last three feet which is always the hardest because one does not know if the last three feet is in fact the correct distance and there might have been more laid in order to actually kill you.

There is a valid complaint and you missed making it---why has not the government unleashed a massive counter I/O campaign towards the proRussian elements equal to what Russia is aiming at them and you and I via mirhond.

I find that the single weakness that the US could have helped out on but apparently did not.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 07:30 PM

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

mirhond---this is from Interfax from today---

21:25 Lavrov denies Russian military was involved in Crimea events

Putin in his TV broadcast stated today the Russian military was in fact in the Crimea before the elections.

So mirhond who is lying Lavrov or Putin?

carl

04-17-2014, 07:53 PM

The fact of the matter is that Russian agitation operations, no matter their extent, would be futile if there was not already popular sentiment in their favor.

American Pride:

The above is a sentence from your post number 1192, and it is a direct quote as indicated.

Now in your post of 10:17 pm, post #1204, you stated "I never stated that "there is popular sentiment in favor of [Moscow]"."

I think it apparent that you plainly stated there was popular sentiment in Russian favor. No taking it back now, you did not say 'Oneseys twoseys I can take it backseys' first.

TheCurmudgeon

04-17-2014, 08:16 PM

Food for thought ...

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

... The leaflet begins, "Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," and states that all people of Jewish descent over 16 years old must report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and "register."

It says the reason is because the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine supported Bendery Junta, a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement that fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk," a name adopted by the militant leadership.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/

I had heard arguments that, in addition to Russian Ethnic identity, Putin was using the population's connection with the Russian Orthodox Church to bolster his new Nationalism. To have an in-group you need an out-group. I guess the Jews will work for that.

Of course, this could just be local thugs trying to shake down the Jewish population, but is ceratinly creates the impression that there is a group who belong there and another group who does not.

kaur

04-17-2014, 09:15 PM

Mirhond and Outlaw. Coming back to nationality question. It seems that this is very important for Putin. Today he picked up some questions and mirhond, would you translate this quote. Your English is much more better than mine :) Other solution is wait for Kremlin translation.

И, наконец, знаете, я долго думал, брать ли этот вопрос вообще. Он такой, не для блиц-ответов и блиц-вопросов, он совсем философский, я его зачитаю. «Спрашиваю у Вас как у политика, – это как раз из Питера, Щербонос Екатерина Александровна задаёт вопрос. – Но слышать хотелось бы Ваше личное, не политическое мнение. Русский народ, он что для Вас? Вы по роду своей деятельности побывали, наверное, во всех странах мира. Вы видели огромное количество наций, народностей, познакомились с их культурными традициями, национальными обычаями, кухней, искусством. И в связи с этим мой вопрос к Вам: что для Вас есть русский человек, русский народ? На Ваш взгляд, его плюсы и минусы, сильные и слабые стороны?»

Знаете, некоторые специалисты считают, что у народа как у общности людей нет своих особенностей, особенности есть только, по их мнению, у конкретного человека. Мне трудно согласиться с этой позицией, потому что если люди пользуются одним языком, живут в рамках единого государства, проживают на одной территории, у них общие культурные ценности, у них общая история, в конце концов, они живут в рамках какой-то территории с определённым климатом, – ну не может не быть каких-то общих черт.

А что касается нашего народа, то страна наша, как пылесос, втягивала в себя представителей различных этносов, наций, национальностей. Кстати говоря, на этой основе создан не только наш общий культурный код, но и исключительно мощный генетический код, потому что за все эти столетия и даже тысячелетия происходил обмен генами, смешанные браки. И именно этот наш генный код, наверное, может быть, почти наверняка является одним из наших главных конкурентных преимуществ в сегодняшнем мире. Он очень гибкий, он очень устойчивый. Мы даже этого не чувствуем, но это наверняка есть.

Что же всё-таки в основе наших особенностей? Эти особенности, конечно, есть, и в их основе, на мой взгляд, лежат ценностные ориентиры. Мне кажется, что русский человек, или, сказать пошире, человек русского мира, он прежде всего думает о том, что есть какое-то высшее моральное предназначение самого человека, какое-то высшее моральное начало. И поэтому русский человек, человек русского мира, он обращён больше не в себя, любимого…

Хотя, конечно, в бытовой жизни мы все думаем о том, как жить богаче, лучше, быть здоровее, помочь семье, но всё-таки не здесь главные ценности, он развёрнут вовне. Вот западные ценности заключаются как раз в том, что человек в себе сам, внутри, и мерило успеха – это личный успех, и общество это признаёт. Чем успешнее сам человек, тем он лучше.

У нас этого недостаточно. Даже очень богатые люди всё равно говорят: «Ну заработал миллионы и миллиарды, дальше что?» Всё равно это развёрнуто вовне, в общество. Мне кажется, ведь только у нашего народа могла родиться известная поговорка: «На миру и смерть красна». Как это так? Смерть – это что такое? Это ужас. Нет, оказывается, на миру и смерть красна. Что такое «на миру»? Это значит, смерть за други своя, за свой народ, говоря современным языком, за Отечество.

Вот в этом и есть глубокие корни нашего патриотизма. Вот отсюда и массовый героизм во время военных конфликтов и войн и даже самопожертвование в мирное время. Отсюда чувство локтя, наши семейные ценности. Конечно, мы менее прагматичны, менее расчётливы, чем представители других народов, но зато мы пошире душой. Может быть, в этом отражается и величие нашей страны, её необозримые размеры. Мы пощедрее душой.

Я никого не хочу при этом обидеть. Ведь у многих народов есть свои преимущества, но это, безусловно, наше. В современном глобальном мире происходит интенсивный обмен: и генетический обмен, и информационный, и культурный, и нам, безусловно, есть что взять у других народов ценного и полезного, но мы всегда, сотнями лет опирались на свои ценности, они нас никогда не подводили, и они нам ещё пригодятся.

http://kremlin.ru/news/20796

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2014, 09:52 PM

Food for thought ...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/

I had heard arguments that, in addition to Russian Ethnic identity, Putin was using the population's connection with the Russian Orthodox Church to bolster his new Nationalism. To have an in-group you need an out-group. I guess the Jews will work for that.

Of course, this could just be local thugs trying to shake down the Jewish population, but is ceratinly creates the impression that there is a group who belong there and another group who does not.

TC---this does not surprise me because if one looks deeper into the Russian nationalism under the Czarist days they were basically anti Jewish---then under Stalin you had the doctor purges who were in fact Jewish ---do not think the Germans developed their anti Jewish feelings on their own---the first Jewish pogroms came out of Russia followed by the Poles and many of the Jews driven out of Russia and then Poland ended up in Berlin.

What is more interesting is the demands by the separatists that the local businesses pay "fees" or lose their business concessions. It seems the separatists are really extortionists and criminals instead of "poor mistreated ethnic Russians"----it has been all about money and who can make it in a hurry and cannot---this has been a core problem for the Ukraine since the Soviet days.

There has been an element of Russian criminals involved in both Russia and the Ukraine that is also behind the armed groups.

This particular website is "nationalist" which basically is neo right or neo Nazi which Putin does not seem to criticize in his own country but he does on the Ukraine. They have been recruiting for the Ukraine self defense groups and passing on how to get across the border info.

http://rusvesna.su

TC---this was a comment this evening from a Ukrainian security rep concerning eight gangs alone in one building that is occupied.

She said there are eight gangs in the Donetsk Oblast Administration alone that have no single leader for negotiations and no single set of demands, which makes the situation difficult to solve at the diplomatic level.

04-17-2014, 11:51 PM

. The fact of the matter is that Russian agitation operations, no matter their extent, would be futile if there was not already popular sentiment in their favor.
I am not so sure of the truth of this statement. I presume you are aware of mob or crowd psychology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowd_psychology). People have been known to get caught up in the moment and do things that they would not otherwise have done, especially when lost in the apparent anonymity of a crowd. As a result things like the Kent State and Boston Massacres occur. I tend to think of popular sentiment as something very different from agitation of a crowd by a few William Jennings Bryan's, Al Sharpton's, or other gold-throated orators who are good at emotional appeals.

mirhond

04-18-2014, 02:06 PM

@kaur

I suspect that you at least can read Russian, because you've made the right emphasis in the text. ;)
Anyway, you forgive me if I'll not translate the whole bunch of this pseudo-spiritual and eclectic batshиt, would you? I'll just underline the major claims.

Q: What is Russian People for you, as politician? What are their virtues and vices?
P:.. there are communities with shared territory, culture, language and history. ... Our country absorbed a lot of different ethnicities, so we have even a special genes which give us advantage in contemporary world. ... Russian World person has a feeling of high moral mission ... worldly benefits are not enough for us, ... even death for People, for Fatherland is prized. => patriotism, self-sacrifice, family values, soul - blah-blah-blah.
Of cause we have to learn from other nations, but our core value never fail us.

EEk, that's enough , I am going to vomit

Reality is a little bit different, in contemporary Russia all this values exists only in the imagination of ministry of truth apparatchiks, and may be in the minds of lower classes.

04-18-2014, 04:07 PM

I'll give you another tip - this one from Edward Luttwak:

Are you starting to develop some degree of understanding now?

As JMA may be aware, the origin of the phrase he quotes is Edward Luttwak's article describing Luttwak's position on what the US should do vis--vis Syria; the first part of that quoted section is a paraphrase from a Roman writer. One might note that Luttwak is an academic who, other than apparently undergoing some form of British Army basic training while going to public school (perhaps like high school Junior ROTC in the US), has never served in the military in uniform, only doing gigs with various defense agencies and think tanks as a consultant.

Instead, we might consider what happened to the Romans and others who have chosen this path of preparing for war to achieve peace.

The source for the first part of the Luttwak quotation is Vegetius, who wrote sometime between 383 and 450 AD. As students of Roman history are probably well aware, the reign of the last Western Roman Emperor ended in 476. So, Rome prepared for war to ensure peace and managed to last less than 100 years after Vegetius gave his advice. A more modern example is Rhodesia--preparing for war to achieve peace was an extremely successful tactic for Ian Smith's government as well: the Rhodesian Republic lasted from 1965-1979. Yet another case in point is the "glorious" Third Reich of Adolf Hitler--its lifespan was 1933-1945.

Successfully preparing for war does not necessarily mean that one must engage in a military buildup. The French preparation for another war with Germany during the 1920s and 1930s by building the Maginot Line was another classic "fail." The post-WWII Soviet Union managed to last about 50 years once it turned to a military build up as its approach to continued existence in the face of perceived external threats.

As the last sentence of JMA's quotation from Luttwak makes clear
Virile and martial elites understand that kind of thinking instinctively those who "think" with their testicles find this approach to be the right course of action. "Think" is in quotation marks because instinctive understanding is not conscious behavior, thus not really thinking nor really knowledge. It is more like blinking one's eye when sand is blown into it. A response based on thinking might be to put on goggles to protect one's eyes from blowing sand.

I suspect that those who think with their brains will not engage in knee-jerk arms races or precipitate military action. They will probably choose other paths, paths that produce much longer term positive results. Taking a rational approach is rather unfortunate for those backward-looking "dinosaurs" with testicle brains who eschew rational thought--the quality that sets humans apart from the rest of the animals--and can be expected to be met with animalistic grunts, roaring, bellowing, and flatulence. But, as happened to the French knights at Agincourt from their failure to learn and change after Crecy, that route may well result in their ultimate extinction.

davidbfpo

04-18-2014, 05:19 PM

My attention has been drawn to a number of posts that are beyond SWC's rules of engagement in presenting arguments and providing information. They do not contribute to what the Council is.

Responding to the 'new war' over the Ukraine is an important issue for SWC members and others who read this thread. In the past such posts have "turned off" members who seek debate.

In a moment I will temporarily lock the thread to enable editing and maybe other action if suitable.

davidbfpo

04-18-2014, 06:52 PM

I have deleted a number of threads and lightly edited others. The thread is now open for posting - without sniping, which at times was abusive and so way beyond SWC ROE. No Infractions have been issued, in part as it was unclear who started the fall in standards.

After this post I and other moderators may issue Infractions to those whose language and manner breach SWC rules.

Now can we return to what SWC is for.

carl

04-18-2014, 07:11 PM

Sorry David.

I always hate it when I get scolded especially when I deserve it.

JMA

04-18-2014, 07:27 PM

Remember when I said 'No it will never happen.'? You convinced me otherwise and now it seems closer than ever, at least with Hawaii. I see the result of a lost naval war with Red China being Guam becoming part of Red China and Hawaii becoming an independent country with Pearl Harbor being a PLAN base.

As I said over at the Journal, the US will do nothing. Mr. Obama is a horse in the face of a threat, not a donkey. What we have to start thinking about is how deep a hole we are going to be in at the end of his term and how we can get out of it, if we can get out of it.

(I've been hanging around horses and a burro lately so my analogies get headed in an equine direction.)

Well Carl, here is a guy who sums the tragedy up pretty well:

Niall Ferguson: America's Global Retreat (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303945704579391492993958448)

Mr. Obama's supporters like nothing better than to portray him as the peacemaker to George W. Bush's warmonger. But it is now almost certain that more people have died violent deaths in the Greater Middle East during this presidency than during the last one.

And a word from Henry Kissinger:

Dr. Kissinger once observed. "Those ages which in retrospect seem most peaceful were least in search of peace. Those whose quest for it seems unending appear least able to achieve tranquillity. Whenever peace—conceived as the avoidance of war—has been the primary objective . . . the international system has been at the mercy of [its] most ruthless member."

There are none so blind...

Stan

04-18-2014, 07:37 PM

Mark, There's a million more such as

Diplomacy: the art of restraining power.

Not that I agree with that one, rather this one considering where we are with the Ukraine and American admin...

Leaders are responsible not for running public opinion polls but for the consequences of their actions.

JMA

04-18-2014, 07:55 PM

Luttwak has it just about perfectly right:

The paradoxical logic of strategy contradicts the logic of everyday life, it goes against all normal definitions of intelligence we have. It only makes sense if you understand the dialectic. If you want peace, prepare for war. If you actively want war, disarm yourself, and then you’ll get war. Virile and martial elites understand that kind of thinking instinctively.

And for the yanks by the yanks...

"To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace."
- George Washington

"I never advocated war except as a means of peace."
- Ulysses S. Grant

"Peace, above all things, is to be desired; but blood must sometimes be spilled to obtain it on equable and lasting terms."
- Andrew Jackson

Mark, There's a million more such as

Not that I agree with that one, rather this one considering where we are with the Ukraine and American admin...

davidbfpo

04-18-2014, 08:08 PM

From FP email:
The Pentagon's top commander in Europe just called out the Russians. Gen. Philip Breedlove took to the blogosphere yesterday and called Russia's use of armed, masked men to assert control over Ukraine in recent weeks. In a post titled "Who Are the Men Behind the Masks?" he asserted the following: "It's hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It's hard to fathom because it's simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia."
On what did Breedlove base his conclusion? Several things. Among them: The "activists in eastern Ukraine "exhibit tell-tale military training and equipment and work together in a way that is consistent with troops who are part of a long-standing unit, not spontaneously stood up from a local militia." They also handle their weapons with great care, coordinate the use of tear gas and stun grenades, under the control of specific commanders on the ground, launch coordinated operations, and carry weapons and equipment that is primarily issued by the Russian army. "Any one of the points above taken alone would not be enough to come to a conclusion on this issue, but taken in the aggregate, the story is clear," Breedlove wroteTaken from NATO website:http://aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/who-are-the-men-behind-the-masks.aspx

It also has four links - about to view them. One article (the 4th link) refers to a Ukrainian website that looks interesting:http://ukraineinvestigation.com/armed-russian-soldiers-in-slovyansk/

JMA

04-18-2014, 08:28 PM

David, Breedlove is too honest and outspoken for the good of his career... the current WH is not big on honesty.

Interesting comment:

In my blog last month I spoke about the importance of identifying the Russian troops in Crimea. Today, the Russian president has finally admitted that Russian troops were there after denying it repeatedly early on. Also today he claimed that the idea of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine was "rubbish.” I would ask that you keep this in mind as you consider your answer to the question "Who are the men behind the masks in eastern Ukraine, today?”

the question is, how long can an honest man keep his job in today's America.

From FP email:

Taken from NATO website:http://aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/who-are-the-men-behind-the-masks.aspx

It also has four video links - about to view them. certainly better than the wife's TV "soaps".:wry:

Stan

04-18-2014, 08:38 PM

Actually, he got his info from Estonia in 2007 and just last week from McCain's visit.

Odd, how many times does one need to repeat the same thing before someone else actually gets it.

We told the Ukrainians and Americans to slam the borders shut and find the Kremlin's money.

Too easy :cool:

Stan

04-18-2014, 08:43 PM

And for the yanks by the yanks...

You are preaching to the choir Mark.

23 years of active duty, and only in Sierra.

The Ukraine however is not Sub-Sahara and the jungle rules of our days may not apply, nor, for that matter, the BS that a bunch of dead presidents drummed up at the white house.

We should be handling Putin like an African dictator, but, we can't manage to handle our creations in Africa either.

JMA

04-18-2014, 08:50 PM

You are preaching to the choir Mark.

23 years of active duty, and only in Sierra.

The Ukraine however is not Sub-Sahara and the jungle rules of our days may not apply, nor, for that matter, the BS that a bunch of dead presidents drummed up at the white house.

We should be handling Putin like an African dictator, but, we can't manage to handle our creations in Africa either.

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

JMA

04-18-2014, 09:00 PM

And to think the current US policy was aimed at maintaining peace:

Is Ukraine about to go nuclear again? (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/16/opinion/hall-ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear/)

The actions of Russia and Ukraine over the next few weeks have the potential to alter the global nuclear weapons dynamic in a profound and extremely dangerous way.

One probable and immediate consequence of a Ukrainian choice to "go nuclear" would be that Belarus, a Ukrainian neighbor and close Kremlin ally, would also choose to return to its pre-treaty nuclear weapons status through the development of indigenous weapons or, even more likely, invite the placement of Russian nuclear weapons within its borders.

Japan would be well advised ....

Stan

04-18-2014, 09:00 PM

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

Mark,
Correct me if I'm wrong herein, but other than not seeing what was already pre-planned in Moscow, and, Crimea practically OK with the invasion, what more should we as a collective society have done ?

When McCain was told to send in 50,000 troops and provide a 5 million dollar guarantee immediately he nearly fell over. The sad reality is, 50,000 troops and logistics for a month will more than likely cost the American public 50 million.

Whilst McCain died from laughing, he was right.
Who is going to fund this boondoggle when it seems that half of the Ukraine is getting by with MREs and running at the first sight of a military skirmish.

In Africa it took decades to be fed up.

How long will it take the Ukrainian people to become fed up and revolt. Does not appear that enough of them are fed up.

Regards, Stan

JMA

04-18-2014, 09:02 PM

Well done, entertaining and funny!

As JMA may be aware, the origin of the phrase he quotes is Edward Luttwak's article describing Luttwak's position on what the US should do vis--vis Syria; the first part of that quoted section is a paraphrase from a Roman writer. One might note that Luttwak is an academic who, other than apparently undergoing some form of British Army basic training while going to public school (perhaps like high school Junior ROTC in the US), has never served in the military in uniform, only doing gigs with various defense agencies and think tanks as a consultant.

Instead, we might consider what happened to the Romans and others who have chosen this path of preparing for war to achieve peace.

The source for the first part of the Luttwak quotation is Vegetius, who wrote sometime between 383 and 450 AD. As students of Roman history are probably well aware, the reign of the last Western Roman Emperor ended in 476. So, Rome prepared for war to ensure peace and managed to last less than 100 years after Vegetius gave his advice. A more modern example is Rhodesia--preparing for war to achieve peace was an extremely successful tactic for Ian Smith's government as well: the Rhodesian Republic lasted from 1965-1979. Yet another case in point is the "glorious" Third Reich of Adolf Hitler--its lifespan was 1933-1945.

Successfully preparing for war does not necessarily mean that one must engage in a military buildup. The French preparation for another war with Germany during the 1920s and 1930s by building the Maginot Line was another classic "fail." The post-WWII Soviet Union managed to last about 50 years once it turned to a military build up as its approach to continued existence in the face of perceived external threats.

As the last sentence of JMA's quotation from Luttwak makes clear those who "think" with their testicles find this approach to be the right course of action. "Think" is in quotation marks because instinctive understanding is not conscious behavior, thus not really thinking nor really knowledge. It is more like blinking one's eye when sand is blown into it. A response based on thinking might be to put on goggles to protect one's eyes from blowing sand.

I suspect that those who think with their brains will not engage in knee-jerk arms races or precipitate military action. They will probably choose other paths, paths that produce much longer term positive results. Taking a rational approach is rather unfortunate for those backward-looking "dinosaurs" with testicle brains who eschew rational thought--the quality that sets humans apart from the rest of the animals--and can be expected to be met with animalistic grunts, roaring, bellowing, and flatulence. But, as happened to the French knights at Agincourt from their failure to learn and change after Crecy, that route may well result in their ultimate extinction.

Stan

04-18-2014, 09:07 PM

And to think the current US policy was aimed at maintaining peace:

Is Ukraine about to go nuclear again? (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/16/opinion/hall-ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear/)

Japan would be well advised ....

Mark,
To even remotely use the term "treaty" in this part of the world is a joke.

The former east block is but a transit point for fissile materials from Russia.

We are not maintaining much more that the status quo and dearly expensive.

Case in point. If the reporting Tom and I did on Viktor Bout in the early 90s only recently put him away, two decades later, what would we hope to achieve now with Putin?

04-18-2014, 09:30 PM

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

I am, not quite sure that folks are saying just left Putin do what he wants.

I would include Putin among those dinosaurs I mentioned here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=155265&postcount=1200). One way to get rid of creatures with such voracious appetites is to take away their food source. Putin's food seems to consist of money and power. The West's economic sanctions directed against individuals in Russia is part of that food source removal process--reducing Putin's access to money; some of his income is also being spoiled by such things as raising Gazprom's rates and sending aid to the Crimea. A well-placed campaign of discrediting the man's public utterances (such as Breedlove's press release quoted by Davidbfpo) is the start of one way of undercutting his public support, AKA power base. Turning back Russian visitors to the Ukraine is another way of pointing out the limitations to his power.

However, dinosaurs take a while to starve and could still cause damage before they succumb. Some other things, like putting a BMD frigate in the Black Sea, are a valuable tool to limit the collateral damage the dinosaur can cause as it thrashes around in its death throes.

04-18-2014, 10:07 PM

Mark,
To even remotely use the term "treaty" in this part of the world is a joke.

The former east block is but a transit point for fissile materials from Russia.

We are not maintaining much more that the status quo and dearly expensive.

Case in point. If the reporting Tom and I did on Viktor Bout in the early 90s only recently put him away, two decades later, what would we hope to achieve now with Putin?

As a follow-on to Stan's second point, how likely is it that Russia will provide fissile material to the Ukrainians?
You can have all the technological know how you want, but you aren't building a nuke without the right kind of fission or fusion precursor matter.

This pie chart is rather instructive
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/World_Uranium_Mining_Production_2012.png

And as far as known locations with enrichment facilities, Wikipedia (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=5978)gives us this:

The following countries are known to operate enrichment facilities: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, Japan, the Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[19] Belgium, Iran, Italy, and Spain hold an investment interest in the French Eurodif enrichment plant, with Iran's holding entitling it to 10% of the enriched uranium output. Countries that had enrichment programs in the past include Libya and South Africa, although Libya's facility was never operational.[20] Australia has developed a laser enrichment process known as SILEX, which it intends to pursue through financial investment in a U.S. commercial venture by General Electric.[21] It has also been claimed that Israel has a uranium enrichment program housed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center site near Dimona and this link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor) identifies know breeder reactor sites.

Fuchs

04-18-2014, 10:47 PM

wm; the big problem with si vis pacem para bellum is that those who use the quote the most fail to see when enough is enough.

Recently I blogged about the power balance between the Russians and the EU; the Russians are inferior in conventional military strength (and very much so in their Western Military District; massing a couple ten thousand troops was treated as a huge deal in the media, but that's about all they're actually capable of in the short term!).

Such facts don't help, though: There are gazillions of "Europeans cannot fight their way out of a wet paper bag" blokes around.

You've never prepared enough in their world. It's always more, more, more - because they have no concept of how much is right - they always think "more" is right.

By the way;
"„Qui desiderat pacem, bellum praeparat“
Renatus in de Re militarii, generations before Vegetius.

davidbfpo

04-18-2014, 10:50 PM

On Twitter from Roberty Mackey (NYT):
Video obtained by (BBC reporter) @antelava (https://twitter.com/antelava) of masked man handing out threatening flyers to Ukrainian Jews outside Donetsk synagogue just broadcast on BBC

Link and you have to scroll down:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27081271

JMA

04-18-2014, 10:52 PM

I am, not quite sure that folks are saying just left Putin do what he wants.

Then you need to have a second look at what is and was happening.

04-18-2014, 11:02 PM

JMA

04-18-2014, 11:08 PM

You can blog as much as you like but the simple truth is that the US and the EU have been tested by the 'inferior' Russians and have been found wanting. So you don't have an argument.

wm; the big problem with si vis pacem para bellum is that those who use the quote the most fail to see when enough is enough.

Recently I blogged about the power balance between the Russians and the EU; the Russians are inferior in conventional military strength (and very much so in their Western Military District; massing a couple ten thousand troops was treated as a huge deal in the media, but that's about all they're actually capable of in the short term!).

Such facts don't help, though: There are gazillions of "Europeans cannot fight their way out of a wet paper bag" blokes around.

You've never prepared enough in their world. It's always more, more, more - because they have no concept of how much is right - they always think "more" is right.

By the way;
"„Qui desiderat pacem, bellum praeparat“
Renatus in de Re militarii, generations before Vegetius.

kaur

04-19-2014, 12:31 AM

Putin's answers ro Russian audience 2 days ago. A lot of thought that express his worldview, but I picked just couple.

Tone of the event set by moderator.

here is no doubt that we’ll discuss developments in Ukraine’s southeast and the genocide that was unleashed in this region. Ukraine is sliding into civil war.

About Crimea and NATO.

I’ll use this opportunity to say a few words about our talks on missile defence. This issue is no less, and probably even more important, than NATO’s eastward expansion. Incidentally, our decision on Crimea was partially prompted by this.

Needless to say, first and foremost we wanted to support the residents of Crimea, but we also followed certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: “This doesn’t concern you,” and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory.

But it isn’t even the emotional side of the issue. The point is that Crimea protrudes into the Black Sea, being in its centre, as it were. However, in military terms, it doesn’t have the importance it used to have in the 18th and 19th centuries – I’m referring to modern strike forces, including coastal ones.

But if NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area. We’d be left with just a small coastline of 450 or 600km, and that’s it!

About Russian people.

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I thought for a long while about whether to answer this question at all. It is not a question that would fit in a blitz Q&A section. This is a philosophical question. I’ll read it out. This question was asked by Yekaterina Shcherbonos from St Petersburg: “I’m asking you as a politician but I’d like to hear your personal rather than political opinion. What is the Russian people to you? By virtue of your position you’ve probably been to all countries of the world. You’ve seen a tremendous number of nations and ethnic groups and learned about their cultural traditions, national habits, cuisine and arts. In this context I’d like to ask you: In your opinion, what does it mean to be Russian? What do you think about their pluses and minuses, their weaknesses and strengths?”

Well, some specialists believe that the people as a community do not have specific features, that only individuals have them. I find it hard to accept this position because if people are using the same language, live in a common state, on a common territory with a certain climate, if they have common cultural values and history, they are bound to have some common features.

As for our people, our country, like a magnet, has attracted representatives of different ethnic groups, nations and nationalities. Incidentally, this has become the backbone not only for our common cultural code but also a very powerful genetic code, because genes have been exchanged during all these centuries and even millennia as a result of mixed marriages.

And this genetic code of ours is probably, and in fact almost certainly, one of our main competitive advantages in today’s world. This code is very flexible and enduring. We don’t even feel it but it is certainly there.

So what are our particular features? We do have them, of course, and I think they rely on values. It seems to me that the Russian person or, on a broader scale, a person of the Russian world, primarily thinks about his or her highest moral designation, some highest moral truths. This is why the Russian person, or a person of the Russian world, does not concentrate on his or her own precious personality…

Of course, in everyday life we all think about how to live a wealthier and better life, to be healthier and help our family, but these are still not the main values. Our people open themselves outward. Western values are different and are focused on one’s inner self. Personal success is the yardstick of success in life and this is acknowledged by society. The more successful a man is, the better he is.

This is not enough for us in this country. Even very rich people say: “Okay, I’ve made millions and billions, so what next?” At any rate, everything is directed outward, and oriented toward society. I think only our people could have come up with the famous saying: “Meeting your death is no fear when you have got people round you.” How come? Death is horrible, isn’t it? But no, it appears it may be beautiful if it serves the people: death for one’s friends, one’s people or for the homeland, to use a modern word.

These are the deep roots of our patriotism. They explain mass heroism during armed conflicts and wars and even sacrifice in peacetime. Hence there is a feeling of fellowship and family values. Of course, we are less pragmatic, less calculating than representatives of other peoples, and we have bigger hearts. Maybe this is a reflection of the grandeur of our country and its boundless expanses. Our people have a more generous spirit.

I don’t want to offend anyone by saying this. Many peoples have their own advantages but this is certainly ours. An intensive genetic, informational and cultural exchange is going on in the modern world. There is no doubt that other peoples have precious and useful things that we can borrow, but we have relied for centuries on our own values, which have never let us down and will stand us in good stead in the future.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034

Window on Eurasia: Defining Who is a Russian Difficult and Dangerous, “Nezavisimaya” Says

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/04/window-on-eurasia-defining-who-is.html

Fuchs

04-19-2014, 01:18 AM

I think we are in violent agreement except for your "By the way." As far as I know, Renatus and Vegetius are the same guy, namely Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus. What are your sources for a different guy "generations before Vegetius"?

Damn, it's late here and I got fooled by the different estimates about the time of origin of this treatise, sorry. I even read that overlength complaint about how the forefathers were so much more disciplined, better trained and so on twice and still got this wrong...

You can blog as much as you like but the simple truth is that the US and the EU have been tested by the 'inferior' Russians and have been found wanting. So you don't have an argument.

We haven't been tested. They're playing games in their backyard, which we didn't even bother to declare to be our backyard so far.
Nothing resembling a united European defence has been tested since Lepanto 1571 (at sea) or Wien 1683 (on land).

The Ukraine is in the geographical Europe, but it's not in the institutional Europe; it's neither EU nor associated nor NATO. Eurovision Song Contest; I think they participate in that. And European sports championships. Can't remember them participating in European football competitions, though.
An attack on them is not an attack on Germany, France, UK, Poland, Romania, Italy, Spain, ...

-------------

You're working on the assumption that "security policy" matters, that is the messing around with military strength in various places. The folks who mistake the small European air tanker capacities for a defence weakness make the same mistake.

"security policy" isn't "defence policy". "security policy" is messing around, while "defence policy" is about securing oneself and one's allies (the actual ones, which signed and ratified an alliance treaty).

Our defences were never tested. We prove to be relatively disinterested in playing games abroad, sure - but that's no "defence" failure or "defence" weakness by a long shot. In fact, it would be a failure if we wasted more resources on preparing for and playing such games than we already do.

Look at the Americans; they fool around a lot, spend insanely every year on their baseline military budget, spend insanely most these years on additional mil budgets, and what do they get?
An economy that's failing them, thousands dead, ten thousands crippled, trillions wasted on a pointless war (one of several), avoidable hostility in much of the world, a distraction from challenges at home.
And then they go on and whine how they foot the bill that almost nobody else wants to exist in the first place. And they complain about how everybody else didn't go nuts as much as they did and paid as insanely as they did on what's largely unnecessary government consumption.

So our defence was not tested; at most our motivation to fool around in East Europe was tested. Just as the Americans' motivation to fool around in Russia's periphery was tested during the South Ossetia conflict.

Fact is, Western "security policy" folks have become too greedy and moved to too many places. Some fools took them seriously and actually believed that Westerners were (even) more into the messing around hobby than they actually are. But Americans wanted Georgia as a make-believe part of a faux coalition and as auxiliary troops providers. they never intended to actually help Georgia.
Nor are West Europeans fans of the idea of going to war with Russia over a non-allied petty territory such as the Crimea where about 90% of the population prefer Russia over the Ukraine. We did low-level messing around with support for some pro-Western/pro-"democracy" political movements there, and that's about it.

The Russians are merely calling some bluffs at times.

carl

04-19-2014, 06:54 AM

Fuchs

04-19-2014, 07:43 AM

The current utility of NATO is to keep EU and USA from becoming rivals.

It's a very cost-efficient way to keep this from happening.

Ulenspiegel

04-19-2014, 10:03 AM

One thing I think will happen, and will happen quickly, is that France and Great Britain will be joined in the nuclear club by several other European nations. I'm guessing Poland and Sweden first, then who knows? They really have no other choice if they want to stay sovereign. They will only be able to depend upon themselves and if that be the case, they need nukes. Israel came to the same conclusion as has North Korea. It won't be hard. They have the money, the brains and the need.

The more likely version for me is that France and UK, which have both economic problems to pay for a not hollow military force, will outsource the nuclear components to the EU. The nuclaer arsenal is of very limited value within a conventional strategy and can be out-sourced without losing too many options.

Your overall assumption still is that Putin/Russia has tested NATO/EU and the occupation of Ukraine would undermine these, here, I completely disagree, you mix apples and oranges.

JMA

04-19-2014, 10:21 AM

The current utility of NATO is to keep EU and USA from becoming rivals.

It's a very cost-efficient way to keep this from happening.

What rivalry would this be?

davidbfpo

04-19-2014, 10:23 AM

The more likely version for me is that France and UK, which have both economic problems to pay for a not hollow military force, will outsource the nuclear components to the EU. The nuclaer arsenal is of very limited value within a conventional strategy and can be out-sourced without losing too many options.

Your overall assumption still is that Putin/Russia has tested NATO/EU and the occupation of Ukraine would undermine these, here, I completely disagree, you mix apples and oranges.

There is no chance either France or the UK 'will outsource the nuclear components to the EU' for a host of reasons, not least of which is politics. Some within the EU bureaucracy may see this as a future option for the Greater EU state, but then Brussels has some strange ideas.

Even the very limited Anglo-French nuclear cooperation took a long time to evolve and get agreement. 'Outsourcing' would take a very long time to reach agreement.

JMA

04-19-2014, 10:25 AM

JMA

04-19-2014, 10:31 AM

Stan, I missed the background to your reference to McCain. Can you direct me please?

Mark,
Correct me if I'm wrong herein, but other than not seeing what was already pre-planned in Moscow, and, Crimea practically OK with the invasion, what more should we as a collective society have done ?

When McCain was told to send in 50,000 troops and provide a 5 million dollar guarantee immediately he nearly fell over. The sad reality is, 50,000 troops and logistics for a month will more than likely cost the American public 50 million.

Whilst McCain died from laughing, he was right.
Who is going to fund this boondoggle when it seems that half of the Ukraine is getting by with MREs and running at the first sight of a military skirmish.

In Africa it took decades to be fed up.

How long will it take the Ukrainian people to become fed up and revolt. Does not appear that enough of them are fed up.

Regards, Stan

JMA

04-19-2014, 11:35 AM

I read once that the purpose of NATO was to keep the Germans down, the Americans in and the Russians out. That is why the frontline countries like Poland wanted to be part of NATO. Now it looks looks as if the only thing still standing of that three legged stool is the Germans down part. The Americans have left and NATO doesn't look as if will keep Russia out of anything. So I think if this continues NATO is finished. NATO may already be finished even if everYthing stops right where it is for a few years.

NATO is finished. The US have lost the will and collectively NATO will not be able to counter the Russian movement westwards taking one step at a time slowly.

Germany does not have a military worth much and that is correcty so but they should be contibuting their 2% of GDP to NATO and not using it on a sub-standard military.

The states that most want NATO membership are those who are most at risk from Russian expansionism... but sadly the US and original members of NATO have lost the resolve for any possible military confrontation with anyone let alone Russia (even if its military has limitations).

Germany and other thought they were being smart thinking they could create stability through economic interdependence with Russia over Russian energy imports. In the wake of Crimea this has proved to a massive miscalculation of epic proportions. Initial German embarrassment is slowly turning into anger. See: Germany's Merkel Gets Tough on Russia (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-17/germany-mulls-harsh-sanctions-on-russia-dot-will-europe-follow). But with 350,000 German jobs depending on trade with Russia one should not expect too much other than Frau Merkel behaving like a jilted lover.

That is a brilliant achievement, if it happens, by Vlad, one for the ages. A relatively weak country achieves with the deployment of less than 100,000 troops the fragmentation of a military alliance many times stronger in just a few weeks with only a handful of shots fired. I can't think of an equal in history.

Not brilliant, merely astute. The signs have been there since before Georgia but nobody was listening. From the fact that most Americans and Europeans crap themselves when the N-word is mentioned means they believe Russia would use them. Nobody believes anyone else would. So as long as Russia marches westward one bite at a time with pauses so as not to cause Europe to act in unison there is nothing to stop them.

Have mentioned the Russian approach of 'two steps forward and one step back' before. They threatened the whole of Georgia and settled for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The US (Bush) claimed victory in saving the rest of Georgia. Russia are hoping to take Crimea and maybe more and let Obama claim vistory when they step back from taking the whole of Ukraine.

This geo-strategic game is not that difficult if your opposition is incompetent.

Now with NATO broken up what can be expected to happen? We can only guess at what. Our imaginations can't span the breadth of the possibilities, our modern imaginations anyway. But if you went back some hundreds or thousands of years you might be able to come up with something.

One slow deliberate step at a time... first wrap up all the non-NATO territories... then test NATO. The US can see this coming and I guarantee you that they are figuring out how to get out of NATO before they have to act in accordance with Article 5. That will open the door for Russia.

One thing I think will happen, and will happen quickly, is that France and Great Britain will be joined in the nuclear club by several other European nations. I'm guessing Poland and Sweden first, then who knows? They really have no other choice if they want to stay sovereign. They will only be able to depend upon themselves and if that be the case, they need nukes. Israel came to the same conclusion as has North Korea. It won't be hard. They have the money, the brains and the need.

Yes indeed and they would be crazy not to.

This will not end well if Vladie-buck's adventure isnt frustrated.

He is too smart for Obama and Frau Merkel.

You think this 'Geneva Deal' was anything more than a device to ward off meaningful sanctions?

Stan

04-19-2014, 11:40 AM

Stan, I missed the background to your reference to McCain. Can you direct me please?

Mark,
Sorry about that.

This one in English (http://news.err.ee/v/politics/d7ade0b4-f9b1-4859-86f3-dab2d88e7794) and the routine stuff from the American Embassy. (http://estonia.usembassy.gov/sp_eng041414.html)

Still trying to find out what Latvia, Lithuania, and Moldova proposed or complained about. Thus far only local language stuff available.

Stan

04-19-2014, 11:48 AM

You think this 'Geneva Deal' was anything more than a device to ward off meaningful sanctions?

Mark,
The Kremlin has always found time to attend such deals and meetings and it has always been doubtful that much would come from said. However, now that the Ukrainian govt. has openly stated that they will consider more autonomy to eastern regions, they just literally opened Pandora's box.

It may have sounded like a small concession, but Vova will read it anyway he desires.

09 May is Victory Day. I sure hope the Ukrainians get 10s of thousands of foreign troops real soon, or they will be looking a a huge version of Estonia in 2007.

JMA

04-19-2014, 12:47 PM

We haven't been tested. They're playing games in their backyard, which we didn't even bother to declare to be our backyard so far.

That argument rings a bell from 70 odd years ago.

Definition of appeasement:

Appeasement, the policy of making concessions to the dictatorial powers in order to avoid conflict...

Germany and the EU may not have been tested militarily but certainly psychologically.

With Georgia being round one, Round two to the Russians (in Ukraine).

Remember this?

To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence. -- Sun Tzu

But it is supreme excellence when nobody will admit you have done anything worth getting excited about while you chew up territories one at a time.

The Ukraine is in the geographical Europe, but it's not in the institutional Europe; it's neither EU nor associated nor NATO. Eurovision Song Contest; I think they participate in that. And European sports championships. Can't remember them participating in European football competitions, though.
An attack on them is not an attack on Germany, France, UK, Poland, Romania, Italy, Spain, ...

Yes, yes, yes... I'm sure you can come up with 100 reasons why what happens in Ukraine has - will have - no impact on Europe... (just like we heard what happens in Syria will have no impact on the Middle East).

You're working on the assumption that "security policy" matters, that is the messing around with military strength in various places. The folks who mistake the small European air tanker capacities for a defence weakness make the same mistake.

This paragraph is incomprehensible...

"security policy" isn't "defence policy". "security policy" is messing around, while "defence policy" is about securing oneself and one's allies (the actual ones, which signed and ratified an alliance treaty).

What do you mean by messing around?

What I will say is that in the case of Germany this is no ability to defend against any military threat either to Germany itself or any NATO or EU ally. So obviously Germany will always underplay the threat and then seek so other solution to the threat - (see appreasement definition above).

Our defences were never tested. We prove to be relatively disinterested in playing games abroad, sure - but that's no "defence" failure or "defence" weakness by a long shot. In fact, it would be a failure if we wasted more resources on preparing for and playing such games than we already do.

If your defences were to be tested - militarily - what would you be able to do about it (without the help of the US)? Zip, nothing, nada.

What is clear from Russian actions in first Georgia and now in Ukraine is that there is indeed a potential military threat - more to some than others - from Russia right now.

Does Germany accept that such a threat exists, to itself or other European states? If so what deterrent does Germany have to prevent any Russian military adventurism? I put it to you that this is the reason why Germany underplays the threat from Russia - as there is nothing they can do about it (without begging the US to help them).

Look at the Americans; they fool around a lot, spend insanely every year on their baseline military budget, spend insanely most these years on additional mil budgets, and what do they get?

The best and most capable militray in the world.

An economy that's failing them, thousands dead, ten thousands crippled, trillions wasted on a pointless war (one of several), avoidable hostility in much of the world, a distraction from challenges at home.

Military expenditure is the scapegoat for 'social' expenditure which is spiralling out of control. But yes misguided wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not helped.

And then they go on and whine how they foot the bill that almost nobody else wants to exist in the first place. And they complain about how everybody else didn't go nuts as much as they did and paid as insanely as they did on what's largely unnecessary government consumption.

"American spending comprised 72% of all NATO defense expenditures in 2013" (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802104579449571957045910)

Little wonder they are pulling out...

It's time for Europe to grow up and start to take responsibility for their own defence.

So our defence was not tested; at most our motivation to fool around in East Europe was tested.

Not militarily maybe... but your resolve was and collectively Europe failed. Disgraceful.

Just as the Americans' motivation to fool around in Russia's periphery was tested during the South Ossetia conflict.

... and they (the US) and Europe failed... and set the scene for Ukraine - McCain warned you as did Romney/Palin and you laughed at them. Whose laughing now?

Fact is, Western "security policy" folks have become too greedy and moved to too many places. Some fools took them seriously and actually believed that Westerners were (even) more into the messing around hobby than they actually are. But Americans wanted Georgia as a make-believe part of a faux coalition and as auxiliary troops providers. they never intended to actually help Georgia.

Georgia had and still has the right to national self-determination just as Germany does. In an act of cowardly appeasement the US and the EU/NATO turned their back on them in their time of need.

the peom by Martin Niemller reminds us of the cowadice of German intellectuals back then... seems not much has changed.

Nor are West Europeans fans of the idea of going to war with Russia over a non-allied petty territory such as the Crimea where about 90% of the population prefer Russia over the Ukraine. We did low-level messing around with support for some pro-Western/pro-"democracy" political movements there, and that's about it.

LOL... you mean you bought the results of that referendum? You serious?

The Russians are merely calling some bluffs at times.

As the Germans once did ... and aslo getting away with it.

Ulenspiegel

04-19-2014, 01:40 PM

And give Germany access to nuclear weapons? You can't be serious.

Try to understand the concept of latent nuclear powers and try to understand the reasons why these latent powers have not become actual nuclear powers.

04-19-2014, 01:41 PM

Have mentioned the Russian approach of 'two steps forward and one step back' before. They threatened the whole of Georgia and settled for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The US (Bush) claimed victory in saving the rest of Georgia. Russia are hoping to take Crimea and maybe more and let Obama claim vistory when they step back from taking the whole of Ukraine.

While some similarities exist between the operations in Georgia and those in the Crimea, I think what the US was hoping to attain is very different from what Russia suspected was going on.
In my opinion, getting Georgia as a NATO partner was not really about NATO. Rather it was about getting US foreign bases. to be prepared for Iran. I believe US operations in Afghanistan and Iraq had a similar goal. Georgia in NATO has positives that are lacking in Uzbekistan (site of former US used Karshi-Khanabad AB) and Kyrgyzstan (site of currently used Manas AB), Unlike the recent and current arrangements in these two very tenuously available locations, having Georgia in NATO would have provided a treaty tie as well as seaborne access for forward basing. However, the pieces retained by Russia after its incursion into Georgia placed Russian control in such a way as to easily cut off forward-based Western forces in Georgia that might seek to invade Russia.
With the loss of Georgia as a meaningful US foreign basing option, the Russians perhaps looked at the next place the US could forward base in preparation for an invasion of Russia. Lo and behold, the Ukraine, and particularly Sebastopol in the Crimea popped up. What other meaningful combinations of sea- and airport capabilities exist on the Black Sea? Putin mentioned this issue in the post from Kaur (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=155311&postcount=1223)

Needless to say, first and foremost we wanted to support the residents of Crimea, but we also followed certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: “This doesn’t concern you,” and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory.

But it isn’t even the emotional side of the issue. The point is that Crimea protrudes into the Black Sea, being in its centre, as it were. However, in military terms, it doesn’t have the importance it used to have in the 18th and 19th centuries – I’m referring to modern strike forces, including coastal ones.

But if NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area. We’d be left with just a small coastline of 450 or 600km, and that’s it!

It may be the case that the Russians and Americans are both thinking along the same lines: trying to win the 21st century version of The Great Game, with Russia viewing occupation of selected parts of Georgia and the Ukraine as necessary steps to pre-empt US options. However, I don't think so.
I'm inclined to believe instead that the two nations are actually operating from different places and with different goals. For Russia, that goal is protection of Mother Russia by building out its control over buffer states (a return to Warsaw Pact-like thinking). For the US, the goal is putting itself in a position to take down Iran if/when that becomes necessary (a forward basing strategy similar to its 1950-90s efforts in Germany).

Since neither side is likely to believe the other, the problem will continue.

Ulenspiegel

04-19-2014, 01:48 PM

There is no chance either France or the UK 'will outsource the nuclear components to the EU' for a host of reasons, not least of which is politics. Some within the EU bureaucracy may see this as a future option for the Greater EU state, but then Brussels has some strange ideas.

Even the very limited Anglo-French nuclear cooperation took a long time to evolve and get agreement. 'Outsourcing' would take a very long time to reach agreement.

While I expected this answers :-) I do not see how you provide any solution for the basic problem in France and UK: The combination of an ailing economy and the current political environment does not allow to maintain a full spectrum conventional force and to maintain at the same time a useful nuclear component.

If you have to choose the lesser of two evils, a EU (conventional) army/navy/airforce or a EU strategic nuclaer component, what would you choose?

04-19-2014, 02:34 PM

Georgia had and still has the right to national self-determination just as Germany does. In an act of cowardly appeasement the US and the EU/NATO turned their back on them in their time of need.
A couple of points:

First, the existence of a people's right to self-determination does not entail a correlative duty on others to ensure those people are able to exercise that right. In fact, on some definitions of a right, one only has rights insofar as they are able to exercise them without the help of others.

Second, I replaced Georgia from JMA's post with people--Georgia as a nation is not a people--it is a collection of different peoples. The nation of Georgia may have a right to territorial integrity and political sovereignty, but again, having that right does not entail that other nations have a duty to protect the exercise of that right. The correlative duty only exists when other nations have made pledges/promises to defend infringements of the right. The NATO treaty is an example of such a pledge or promise, but it extends only to the treaty's signatories/member nations.

The "responsibility to protect" (R2P) justification that the US and Russia have both used recently is not universally binding, either morally legally. Acting on this responsibility is only permissive, not required. On both the Syria thread and this thread, some have claimed that the US has failed in its duty/responsibility to protect. Why is it only the US that must act on this responsibility? Is this a 21st Century version of the 19th Century "White Man's Burden" argument (which by the way was used to override the very right of self-determination now being touted)? If R2P is a required action, why are not Austria, the Republic of South Africa and every other nation in the world not also required to ante up? Why are these other nations not equally derelict in their responsibilities to the rest of the world's people? Absent a prior promise to help, which in the US means a treaty ratified by the Congress, R2P is just a bunch of feel good mumbo jumbo.

04-19-2014, 02:39 PM

carl

04-19-2014, 02:41 PM

This is just a minor thing, not germane to WM's main point but with regard to this statement

Second, I replaced Georgia from JMA's post with people--Georgia as a nation is not a people--it is a collection of different peoples.

so is the US, so is Canada, so is Switzerland, so was Rome etc.

carl

04-19-2014, 03:04 PM

Putin's being a genius or being astute, maybe one, maybe the other, the result is the same. And it goes back to events of 6 or so years ago in Georgia and our decision not to put a ABMs in Poland and the Czech Republic. I think at that time Putin looked at the West and at the US in particular and decided that he could base a strategy of conquest upon nothing more than a read of the psychology and therefore the very likely reaction of NATO. NATO would do nothing.

That NATO would do nothing was particularly based upon a read of the United States and its chief executive. Whether we like it or not and complain about it or not, whatever physical and especially moral strength NATO has or rather had is given to it by the US. Without the US, no NATO. But the US is a disciplined representative republic and in foreign affairs the strength, especially the moral strength of the US depends upon the character of our chief executive. Our system is structured like that and it won't be changed anytime soon.

I think that Putin decided back then that the chief executive of the US had no moral strength. No matter the degree of the provocation, that lack of moral strength of our chief executive would prevent any response. Events in the years since have only confirmed his assessment.

Putin as I said built a strategy upon that, it is a pretty safe strategy and almost foolproof. Just push, but push slowly and wear a mask. That is exactly what he is doing, and will continue to do (though he's only human and may get excited and push faster, a mistake that would be). It is a simple strategy and it is based upon something simple, an astute judgment of your enemy's character. But I think the genius is to take decisive action based upon that. There are not many who will do that and not many who can do it successfully. That is where the genius comes in.

With the above in mind I don't think Maidan had much at all to do with this. I think they have been building their forces in accordance with this strategy in mind and were waiting for the appropriate time to begin to implement it, as that time will always come.

This situation will exist for at least three more years. The hole we will be in at that time will be very deep. As I said at the Journal, professional military men in the US had better start doing some hard thinking about what we are going to do and how we are going to do it. The front line states have already started I'll wager.

Tukhachevskii

04-19-2014, 03:11 PM

..... its good to see the world whilst wearing the other chap's moccasins.

JMA

04-19-2014, 03:43 PM

Try to understand the concept of latent nuclear powers and try to understand the reasons why these latent powers have not become actual nuclear powers.

... and why they may need to obtain weapons for use at their own discretion and how long it would take have the weapons and delivery systems in place and operationally ready?

Stan

04-19-2014, 03:46 PM

The annual Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS, also known as KaPo) report was published today, with a blue-yellow design as a nod toward Ukraine.

The yearbook focuses on NGOs with loose ties to Russia (http://news.err.ee/v/politics/5d59f64a-5c5d-4343-ad30-26c37fdf0736) - - and some not as loose - and organizations in Russia set up for external purposes.

These organizations, according to the IS, aim to promote three messages:
1) Estonia supports Nazism
2) Russian-speaking people are discriminated against in Estonia en masse
3) Estonia is a dead-end state that only causes problems for its Western partners

The report says Russia had refrained from taking openly aggressive steps before Ukraine, to avoid international isolation, but that is no longer a priority.

The ISS is tasked with national security, counterintelligence and investigating large-scale cases of corruption.

The full text of the review is available here (https://www.kapo.ee/eng/annual-reviews).

JMA

04-19-2014, 03:46 PM

Maybe the other option: the EU member states outsourcing their protection to a combined UK/French nuclear umbrella, thereby replacing the umbrella provided by the US, is an option.

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

carl

04-19-2014, 04:04 PM

... and why they may need to obtain weapons for use at their own discretion and how long it would take have the weapons and delivery systems in place and operationally ready?

Delivery systems they could have ready by next week. Just convert an old fighter like a MiG-23 or a Viggen into a drone and mount the nuke on it. Program it to head for Moscow and rig the fuse to go off on target or anytime the aircraft flight path is disturbed after crossing the Russian border. That way it wouldn't matter if Russian air defense shot it down or not, a nuke would still go off in Russia.

And it would probaly take the Swedes only a few years to deploy a submarine based cruise missile deterrent.

04-19-2014, 04:34 PM

This is just a minor thing, not germane to WM's main point but with regard to this statement

so is the US, so is Canada, so is Switzerland, so was Rome etc.
Carl,

Big difference for two of those countries--US and Canada-is that the majority of their citizens are not natives--they are descendants of relatively recent immigrants (except for the Native Americans, Aleuts, etc.) The peoples of Georgia are descendants of ethnic groups that have been there for millennia. If you want to compare Georgians, Abkhazians and Ossetians to Sioux, Algonquin and Cherokee, I'll accept that point.
Rome is another case all together. The original Romans were part of the tribe of Latins. So, if you want to make the comparison to say, Italy--you might be right in terms of comparing them with Samnites, Sabines, Etruscans, Campanians, etc. If you mean Rome after, say the, Samnite Wars, then the comparison is not really valid,even though some of the inhabitants of the Italian Peninsula later revolted. This revolt was the Social War (90-88 BC), a fight between Rome and the Socii, Latin for allies. The Soci lost that war and hence were unable to restore their "right" of self-determination. BTW, some of the battles/wars that Rome later fought were R2P type wars to protect other kingdoms from Parthia, Persia, etc. But once Roman armies showed up, it was usually likely a visit from the Borg--those being assisted were soon "assimilated." Of course the Persians and Parthians , even Pyrrhus of Epirus and Phillip V of Macedon, used R2P type arguments to try to curb Rome or expand their own land.

I'm not sure about the allusion to Switzerland, AKA the Swiss Confederation. Could you say a little more by way of explanation. Seems to me the folks living there have been in place at least as long as the Franks, Lombards and Burgundians in Italy and France

04-19-2014, 04:46 PM

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

I seem to remember reading about similar kinds of arguments being given on the impossibility of a European Union--that no European nation would be able to trust another, or enough of the others, after things like the 30 Years War, Wars of the Austrian and Spanish Successions, and the Napoleonic Wars, among other things

04-19-2014, 04:52 PM

... and why they may need to obtain weapons for use at their own discretion and how long it would take have the weapons and delivery systems in place and operationally ready?

All this discussion of potential nuclear proliferation reminds me of the song "Who's Next" by Tom Lehrer, here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRLON3ddZIw&feature=kp) on YouTube for your listening and viewing pleasure.

JMA

04-19-2014, 05:23 PM

Russia would know how long it would take and could plan accordingly.

Still don't blame them for arming themselves as the US nuclear umbrella is unreliable.

Delivery systems they could have ready by next week. Just convert an old fighter like a MiG-23 or a Viggen into a drone and mount the nuke on it. Program it to head for Moscow and rig the fuse to go off on target or anytime the aircraft flight path is disturbed after crossing the Russian border. That way it wouldn't matter if Russian air defense shot it down or not, a nuke would still go off in Russia.

And it would probaly take the Swedes only a few years to deploy a submarine based cruise missile deterrent.

kaur

04-19-2014, 05:36 PM

Stan:

These organizations, according to the IS, aim to promote three messages:
1) Estonia supports Nazism
2) Russian-speaking people are discriminated against in Estonia en masse
3) Estonia is a dead-end state that only causes problems for its Western partners

From Putin's answers about Ukraine two days ago.

1) Nationalism and even neo-Nazism are experiencing a resurgence in western Ukraine.

2) People in eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine were worried about their future and the future of their children, because they saw a rapid growth of nationalist sentiments, heard threats and saw that [the new authorities] wanted to invalidate some of the ethnic minorities’ rights, including the rights of the Russian minority. On the other hand, this description is relative, because Russians are native persons in Ukraine. But an attempt was made to invalidate all decisions regarding the use of the native language. This alarmed people, of course. What happened next?

3) But you know well the history of this territory (Ukraine) and its people. Some of these territories were part of Czechoslovakia, some of Hungary, some of Austro-Hungary and some of Poland, where they were never full-fledged citizens. You know, something has always been growing in their heart of hearts.

Some people seem to believe that it is this circumstance – because these territories were former possessions of several present-day EU countries – that imbues them with some special European substance. That they were second-rate citizens in those states seems to have been forgotten, but this still lurks in their historical memory, under the crust, deep down in their hearts, see? It’s where their nationalism comes from, I think.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034

JMA

04-19-2014, 05:40 PM

kaur,

With the greatest respect why would you believe anything Putin says in public forum?

Stan:

From Putin's answers about Ukraine two days ago.

1) Nationalism and even neo-Nazism are experiencing a resurgence in western Ukraine.

2) People in eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine were worried about their future and the future of their children, because they saw a rapid growth of nationalist sentiments, heard threats and saw that [the new authorities] wanted to invalidate some of the ethnic minorities’ rights, including the rights of the Russian minority. On the other hand, this description is relative, because Russians are native persons in Ukraine. But an attempt was made to invalidate all decisions regarding the use of the native language. This alarmed people, of course. What happened next?

3) But you know well the history of this territory (Ukraine) and its people. Some of these territories were part of Czechoslovakia, some of Hungary, some of Austro-Hungary and some of Poland, where they were never full-fledged citizens. You know, something has always been growing in their heart of hearts.

Some people seem to believe that it is this circumstance – because these territories were former possessions of several present-day EU countries – that imbues them with some special European substance. That they were second-rate citizens in those states seems to have been forgotten, but this still lurks in their historical memory, under the crust, deep down in their hearts, see? It’s where their nationalism comes from, I think.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034

kaur

04-19-2014, 06:06 PM

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/world/europe/what-is-putins-new-russia.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1

Stan

04-19-2014, 06:26 PM

Mark,
In theory, and I mean way back when, our Army shrink tried to explain the Mobutu mentality.

Huge sense of self-worth
persuasive
ruthless
No remorse
manipulative

Politicians :D

The year book I referenced are from a bunch of very smart criminologists with plenty of experience in dealing with exactly what is happening in the Ukraine.

Sadly, their advise fell on deaf ears.

kaur,

With the greatest respect why would you believe anything Putin says in public forum?

JMA

04-19-2014, 06:48 PM

Look at these stats: Demographics of Georgia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Georgia_(country))

At the time of the last full census in 1989 70% identified themselves as ethnic Georgians. That's good enough to speak of the Georgian nation.

It appears that one has to be careful of the dates of movements of peoples in these countries as there was an influx of Russians during the Soviet era. In the main it was Russians inwards and others such as the Tartars from Crimea out.

This is a subject on it's own.

JMA

04-19-2014, 07:08 PM

Putin is clearly delusional... but many people in the international media and in Europe are taking him seriously. What does that say about them?

I would say he has criminal cunning rather than intellectual intelligence. He should be dealt with on that basis.

He has psyched out the leadership of the US and Europe and must be given credit for that.

As Gary Kasparov said:

Putins-just-like-Al-Capone (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8917352/Garry-Kasparov-Putins-just-like-Al-Capone.html)

Mark,
In theory, and I mean way back when, our Army shrink tried to explain the Mobutu mentality.

Huge sense of self-worth
persuasive
ruthless
No remorse
manipulative

Politicians :D

The year book I referenced are from a bunch of very smart criminologists with plenty of experience in dealing with exactly what is happening in the Ukraine.

Sadly, their advise fell on deaf ears.

JMA

04-19-2014, 07:17 PM

OK, I don't claim any knowledge of the Russian mentality. Maybe you can help.

How far with Putin go and how far will he retain Russian support... and what will it take to stop him and then reverse his gains?

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/world/europe/what-is-putins-new-russia.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1

carl

04-19-2014, 07:36 PM

Russia would know how long it would take and could plan accordingly.

Still don't blame them for arming themselves as the US nuclear umbrella is unreliable.

Exactly. Which is why this is all so dangerous and could spiral out of control so easily. Russia would know when the front line nations would start to nuke up and approx how long it would take. They would have to act to forestall that. Poland would fight and countries like Sweden, Finland and all the other front line nations may ally with them in order to fend off Ivan, for they would know that they would be next. And Turkey, I should not forget about Turkey. They are in the group of front line nations too I figure.

Then there is Israel. Israel knows that the stronger Russia gets, the worse the world climate is for them. It would be in their interest if Russia were preoccupied with central Europe and stayed preoccupied with central Europe. And Israel has lots of nukes and lots of experience working on the sly with other countries to develop nukes. Who knows, there may develop a group of small and medium nations coalescing around Israel's nuke know how their common interest being fending off the Russians.

None of the above figures on what the other countries of the world will do when they see this happening. There are lots of other countries that could go nuke anytime they wanted too with relatively little trouble, countries like Australia, Thailand, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia and on and on.

This is extremely dangerous, fate of the world kind of danger. I don't think people, especially the American political elites for the most part, realize this.

kaur

04-19-2014, 07:47 PM

JMA, Putin will march as far as opponents will let him go. At the present day his dream is this project. His last presidential campaign was built around this issue. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

Without Ukraine this project is not so perfect. Half of Ukraine was drifting EU direction, second half Eurasian union direction. Western Ukraine to EU and Eastern part to Eurasian. Last November before EU Eastern partnership summit it was clear that Ukraine can't signe at the same time association agreement with EU and join Eurasian union. Putin made nice last minute offers to Yanukovich (gas price plus 15 billion loan), but it didn't work. Maidan started. Putin decided to act. Now we see results. As you see Moldova is next in this kind of bad situation EU vs Eurasian union.

The wierd thing is that Putin didn't mention once Eurasian union during his last q&a session, at the same time he spoke several times about plans to restore good relations with EU. He said same about US. He managed to hide his Eurasian union ambition and spoke about tactical level actions. At the same time he is enjoing super ranking at home. One survey said that people will not tolerate this kind of win if their wellfare will be hit. Biggest euphoria is in country side.

mirhond

04-19-2014, 09:30 PM

17.03.2014
Проект Постанови щодо першочергових заходів у зв'язку з військовою агресією Російської Федерації Supreme Rada.

Draft on emergency measures due to Russian agression.

http://image.112.ua/585xX/Mar2014/23153.jpg

text of the draft
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc34?id=&pf3511=50279&pf35401=294360

2) на час військової агресії запроваджується смертна кари для зрадників, диверсантів, мародерів, убивць, дезертирів і шпигунів.

In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

Bolsheviks applaud in the Heaven, Trotzki raises a glass of nectar.

upd.

Ukrainians are hilarious:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-zyNgg6AQPhqHyTM9xiX-VpDX8Q58ECsBgRqRvRLWCE/preview?pli=1&sle=true

З початком збройної агресії забезпечити силами військ спеціальних операцій та заздалегідь направлених диверсійно-розвідувальних груп нанесення ударів по військовим об’єктам вглибині території агресора, а також об’єктам управління у його адміністративних центрах (в першу чергу – Москві та Санкт- Петербурзі). За можливості необхідно фізично усунути від влади політичне керівництво Росією – в першу чергу Президента та Прем’єр-міністра.

At the beginning of agression strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory(especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible.

Lo and behold, mortals, of the great undertaikings of Maidan! :D

The wierd thing is that Putin didn't mention once Eurasian union during his last q&a session,

It isn't weird, because there is no such thing as Eurasian Union, unless you follow the philosophic school of subjective idealism :)

Stan

04-20-2014, 06:28 AM

Yep, a bit egotistical to quote myself herein, but what the hay :D

Going back to the link, click on the 2013 pdf in English (https://www.kapo.ee/cms-data/_text/138/124/files/kapo-annual-review-2013-eng.pdf).

The use of soft power only attracts the attention of national security institutions if it forms a part of the influence operations of a foreign state, and the understanding of the Russian authorities of what soft power means is an example of that.

One method in Russia’s influence operations is to use extremists to
achieve Russia’s foreign policy goals.

The annual Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS, also known as KaPo) report was published today, with a blue-yellow design as a nod toward Ukraine.

Stan

04-20-2014, 06:47 AM

Hey Mirhond !

It would be great if you managed to find an English version from these links, as most of us are not Russian nor Ukrainian, and, while you enjoy only translating two passages, the remainder of those "funny Ukrainian" documents may have something more to tell.

17.03.2014 Supreme Rada.

Draft on emergency measures due to Russian agression.

text of the draft
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc34?id=&pf3511=50279&pf35401=294360

In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

Bolsheviks applaud in the Heaven, Trotzki raises a glass of nectar.

upd.

Ukrainians are hilarious:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-zyNgg6AQPhqHyTM9xiX-VpDX8Q58ECsBgRqRvRLWCE/preview?pli=1&sle=true

At the beginning of agression strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory(especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible.

Lo and behold, mortals, of the great undertaikings of Maidan! :D

mirhond

04-20-2014, 08:16 AM

It would be great if you managed to find an English version from these links, as most of us are not Russian nor Ukrainian, and, while you enjoy only translating two passages, the remainder of those "funny Ukrainian" documents may have something more to tell.

No, I won't, because I don't think this stuff is translated, but I could translate the main ideas from it.

first one:

Ukraine will never recognize the annexation of Crimea
president must declare full mobilization of the army and militia and ask for NATO help
break all diplomatic ties with Russia and denounce agreements about fleet and partnership
apply to EU and NATO membership
increase tolls on gas transit
prevent any separatism by iron fist.
forbid Communist and Regions parties as collaborators.
forbid Russian media
criminal liability on anyone who participate in separatist's meetings or create obstructions for army movements
In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

second one:

Russia is going to invade Kiev, overthrow the regime, occupy South-East and cut Ukraine from the sea. Ukraine can't handle intervention with current shabby armed forces, so it has to create 5 army corps to cover 2 most dangerous directions - Kharkov and Lugansk. So, battle plan is to inflict untolerable losses to enemy by all means and ask for NATO to create air and sea superiority.
At the beginning of agression special forces must strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory (especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible. NATO commandos will take care of Crimea.

By charity foundation "Maidan of foreign affairs" (sic!)

I think the guy who wrote it plays Heats of Iron III too much.

Stan

04-20-2014, 08:24 AM

Mirhond, Thanks for the fast reply !

Yes, it does seem the author has some crazy ideas, but what I do see is the constant ring of EU and NATO, both membership and assistance. Cutting off Russia from the Black Sea will be a little harder to do :rolleyes:

Happy Easter and regards, Stan

kaur

04-20-2014, 09:56 AM

Mirhond, I did mean Eurasian (Economic) Union. I posted also link, but i seems you didn't bother to open it. Try this one :)

http://www.myshared.ru/slide/685305/

davidbfpo

04-20-2014, 12:11 PM

Mirhond uses the link
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360 (http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc34?id=&pf3511=50279&pf35401=294360)

That is somewhat strange as the Ukrainian parliament's website is still working and is on:http://http://www.rada.gov.ua/

If you add 'pls' to the web address it to I think you get 'error 404' and adding 'zweb' gets the same.

So Mirhond where does this link you use come from?

The official website has an English version, so presumably the draft article or law would be available there, could you use a link to the official website?

Most parliaments get strange submissions, in the UK they are a way of getting publicity for a cause in the knowledge legislative success is very unlikely. If this document is genuine and I have m' doubts it could easily be an attempt to get publicity by a minority group or person.

kaur

04-20-2014, 03:20 PM

Mirhond, after 1 minte Google surf this Rada member Oleg Lyashko reminds me Duma's Zhirinovski. Fights, insults etc. wow, there is already article that compares both guys. 1 word describes both "scandal". Mirhond, this is worthless spin.

http://news.tochka.net/115286-lyashko-vs-zhirinovskiy-shok-i-skandal-politiki-foto/

Latest Zhirinovski scandal. In a second humor turns to personal insult against pregnant female journalist.

http://besttoday.ru/video/1743.html?iframe=true&width=590&height=335

mirhond

04-20-2014, 07:00 PM

Mirhond uses the link
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360 (http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc34?id=&pf3511=50279&pf35401=294360)

That is somewhat strange as the Ukrainian parliament's website is still working and is on:http://http://www.rada.gov.ua/

If you add 'pls' to the web address it to I think you get 'error 404' and adding 'zweb' gets the same.

So Mirhond where does this link you use come from?

I'll give you a hint - use site navigation
go from homepage http://www.rada.gov.ua/
to Головна > Законотворчість > Законопроекти > Пошук за реквізитами and you get to
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc2

Mirhond, after 1 minte Google surf this Rada member Oleg Lyashko reminds me Duma's Zhirinovski. Fights, insults etc. wow, there is already article that compares both guys. 1 word describes both "scandal". Mirhond, this is worthless spin.

So what? This draft is no more than piece of crap? You have some insider information from Rada, perhaps? Well, may be you and davidbfpo are right and this draft will die inside bureaucratic mashine, lets wait and see.

Stan

04-20-2014, 07:13 PM

Oleg is quite the charismatic sort of guy. I'm beginning to like him and would recommend a seat in congress for him soonest :D

'I'll hang you by the balls (http://rt.com/news/ukraine-mp-abducted-threatened-882/) and have you f***ed' – Ukrainian presidential hopeful abducts pro-Russian MP

mirhond

04-20-2014, 07:33 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5rO0b1FN1M

Civilians stopped an army truck full of ammo en route from Lvov to Lugansk. I bet at least a part of this ammo will soon appear at black market in South-East cities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N98bLsJMbA

Civilians in Rodinskoye stopped a tank.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGW_wXRdDMY

Civilians in Kramatorsk stopped a BMDs column

All this reminds me some moments of Russian Revolution: In October 1917 head of Interim government Kerenski calls general Cheremisov and requests reliable troops to Petrograd to supress the unrest. Cheremisov then says: They are completly insane, where will I get them reliable troops?"

Stan

04-20-2014, 08:14 PM

Mirhond,
I'm wondering what you make of these videos.

What I see is little resistance or even a general lack of concern.

These people can't be patriotic Ukrainians on the verge of once again becoming a Soviet State.

Had I been driving even a passenger car, all the people at that road block would be dead. Doesn't seem like much more that a joke and reminds me of Africa in 1984, burning tires and hustling motorist.

Is this the Ukraine that you remember ?

mirhond

04-20-2014, 08:34 PM

Mirhond,

These people can't be patriotic Ukrainians on the verge of once again becoming a Soviet State.

Had I been driving even a passenger car, all the people at that road block would be dead. Doesn't seem like much more that a joke and reminds me of Africa in 1984, burning tires and hustling motorist.

Is this the Ukraine that you remember ?

1. A perfect example of Masked Man Fallacy.
2. Ukraine is already has a set of early soviet-stile traits - ideolody dominated media, highly politisized majority in capital cities, rapidly degrading economy, rule of street law, power struggle of revolutionary parties, separatism at the borders - all of this even without the Great War.
3. I have no idea what are you talking about, care to explain?

davidbfpo

04-20-2014, 08:37 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlagTSLCMAAqb6n.jpg

Via Twitter:pic.twitter.com/OJkBZAFbwT (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/pic.twitter.com/OJkBZAFbwT) My apologies it was yesterday.

I have also seen limited photos of pro-Ukraine protrsts in the east, but no wide angle photos.

Bill Moore

04-20-2014, 09:21 PM

Will Russia become a superpower? Part 1/2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_09mazZs8&feature=em-subs_digest

Provides a broad geopolitical strategic overview on Russia's strategy. If the claims are true that Russia basically has colonialized some border states by obtaining ownership of their major industries, in addition to its more overt actions in the Ukraine it appears to be a strategy that is working for them so far.

Dayuhan

04-21-2014, 02:15 PM

That argument rings a bell from 70 odd years ago.

Indeed it does... and how did that work out? Was Europe overrun? Did US power collapse? Did the west fall?

No to all, of course. Despite initial concessions (appeasement, arguably), Europe and the US found a line they had the means and will to hold. That line was far enough from the Soviet core that holding it didn't provoke a potentially terminal war. Eventually, despite those early concessions, it's the Soviet Union, rotted out from the inside, that fell.

So why should we assume that if the Ukraine goes badly (it already has) or worse, that all is lost, or that the decline is irreversible? Given the overall threat of Russia (less than that of the Soviets in many ways) and the state of the Russian economy, why shouldn't it be possible to manage the conflict in much the same way, without resort to war?

Panic and woe seem hardly useful. All is not lost, there's a fair row to hoe before this is done, and given the precedents it would hardly be wise to count the West out on the basis of what happened and what's likely to happen in the Ukraine.

Stan

04-21-2014, 03:29 PM

Mirhond,
Sorry for the confusion. I assumed you were or are now in the Ukraine.

3. I have no idea what are you talking about, care to explain?

carl

04-21-2014, 05:45 PM

Indeed it does... and how did that work out? Was Europe overrun? Did US power collapse? Did the west fall?

No to all, of course. Despite initial concessions (appeasement, arguably), Europe and the US found a line they had the means and will to hold. That line was far enough from the Soviet core that holding it didn't provoke a potentially terminal war. Eventually, despite those early concessions, it's the Soviet Union, rotted out from the inside, that fell.

So why should we assume that if the Ukraine goes badly (it already has) or worse, that all is lost, or that the decline is irreversible? Given the overall threat of Russia (less than that of the Soviets in many ways) and the state of the Russian economy, why shouldn't it be possible to manage the conflict in much the same way, without resort to war?

Panic and woe seem hardly useful. All is not lost, there's a fair row to hoe before this is done, and given the precedents it would hardly be wise to count the West out on the basis of what happened and what's likely to happen in the Ukraine.

Holding that line took rather a lot of effort, millions of men, tens of thousands of small war machines like tanks and planes and thousands of large ones like ships and fleets of big bombers. It took decades and decades and it took on the part of the West a clear resolve to actually go to war with all those men and machines if the need arose. It also took demonstrations of that resolve through things like the Berlin Airlift, the Berlin Crisis, fielding the Pershing II missile whether the Soviets liked it or not, US and British submarines constantly on the back of Russian boats and on and on and on. It took Ron and Maggie and the Saudis agreeing to increase oil production to break the Soviet economy, Pope John Paul II carrying on after the Russians tried to have him killed, Solidarity and a lot of brave, brave Poles (we still may have those)and on and on again.

In short it took the West actually doing something and continuing to do something for a very long and expensive time. The reason we did all this was that we realized appeasement doesn't work. Appeasing just means you will have a much harder struggle on your hands later if you don't do what is needed to be done now. And that realization came after WWII when people realized that if only Hitler had been stood up to early very many innocent people would not have had to die.

That is the problem right now. There seems to be no resolve at all on the part of the West to do something while the problem is manageable. Just a vague hope that it will somehow resolve itself.

I always shake my head at blithe talk about appeasement. Those are real live breathing people with families and friends and goofy hobbies. Real live people that backs may be turned to when they ask for help. That means something.

carl

04-21-2014, 06:04 PM

Carl,

Big difference for two of those countries--US and Canada-is that the majority of their citizens are not natives--they are descendants of relatively recent immigrants (except for the Native Americans, Aleuts, etc.) The peoples of Georgia are descendants of ethnic groups that have been there for millennia. If you want to compare Georgians, Abkhazians and Ossetians to Sioux, Algonquin and Cherokee, I'll accept that point.
Rome is another case all together. The original Romans were part of the tribe of Latins. So, if you want to make the comparison to say, Italy--you might be right in terms of comparing them with Samnites, Sabines, Etruscans, Campanians, etc. If you mean Rome after, say the, Samnite Wars, then the comparison is not really valid,even though some of the inhabitants of the Italian Peninsula later revolted. This revolt was the Social War (90-88 BC), a fight between Rome and the Socii, Latin for allies. The Soci lost that war and hence were unable to restore their "right" of self-determination. BTW, some of the battles/wars that Rome later fought were R2P type wars to protect other kingdoms from Parthia, Persia, etc. But once Roman armies showed up, it was usually likely a visit from the Borg--those being assisted were soon "assimilated." Of course the Persians and Parthians , even Pyrrhus of Epirus and Phillip V of Macedon, used R2P type arguments to try to curb Rome or expand their own land.

I'm not sure about the allusion to Switzerland, AKA the Swiss Confederation. Could you say a little more by way of explanation. Seems to me the folks living there have been in place at least as long as the Franks, Lombards and Burgundians in Italy and France

A country is a people and a people a country if they figure they are and are willing to fight to back up the point. That's all. If you throw in natives vs recent immigrants you are throwing in an infinitely variable factor which depends solely on personal opinion, eg. my native is your recent immigrant which is somebody else's returned rightful owner.

One of the main causes of the Social War was the Italian allies were offered Roman citizenship and then the offer was withdrawn. One of the ways the Romans ended that war was by giving the allies Roman citizenship. So the allies fought the Romans for the right to be Roman and lost the war but became Romans. All those different peoples fighting to become part of Rome.

And Roman citizenship was conferred upon most of the residents of Roman territories in 212 AD. So you had very many different peoples becoming Romans, from Syria to the Atlantic to Sahara to the North Sea. The empire lasted rather a long time after that.

As far as the Swiss go, they figure they are a nation or a people or whatever and they will fight to back it up. Since there are three languages spoken there which I am guessing represent three different cultures, sort of, and histories but they decided they are Swiss, live in Switzerland and will shoot you in the heart if you mess with that arrangement.

Stan

04-21-2014, 06:20 PM

Carl,
Some salient points in both posts.

There are literally 100s of links warning against comparing WWII to the Ukraine, some very good, some not so.

They are as follows (those that I cared to read)

The Daily Beast (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/10/why-america-must-stop-comparing-ukraine-to-world-war-ii.html)
Not one of my info sources, but well written

Aljazeera (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/ukraine-ominous-world-war-ii-pa-201431372034569427.html)
Requires reading between the lines to root out BS, but also well done

History News Network (http://hnn.us/article/154975)
Reminds me of the 80s and govt controlled wire feeds.

and

The LATimes (http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/18/world/la-fg-wn-ukraine-russia-kerry-20140318)
No comment

Stan

04-21-2014, 06:46 PM

As far as the Swiss go, they figure they are a nation or a people or whatever and they will fight to back it up. Since there are three languages spoken there which I am guessing represent three different cultures, sort of, and histories but they decided they are Swiss, live in Switzerland and will shoot you in the heart if you mess with that arrangement.

Carl,
Being 50% Swiss and having read some of their govt's reactions to sanctions, I beg to differ with you. There are actually four distinct cultures and languages not counting minorities like the Amish.

But the Swiss are in a bind and not so innocent nor prepared to give up their wealthy trade.

Switzerland treads careful path over Russia sanctions (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-ukraine-crisis-swiss-sanctions-idUSBREA2P11020140326)

But Switzerland, also a hub for private banking and a popular destination for Russia's wealthy elite, is reluctant to take measures it fears could compromise its cherished neutrality or damage closely nurtured trade relations with Moscow.

Switzerland not to use visa restrictions against Russia over Ukraine crisis (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_11/Switzerland-not-to-use-visa-restrictions-against-Russia-over-Ukraine-crisis-7387/)

If other countries of the Schengen Agreement impose visa restrictions, Switzerland will not follow such measures, the Swiss ambassador said.

carl

04-21-2014, 06:56 PM

Stan:

I figure the biggest event in the history of humans still has a lot of lessons to teach. I figure too that some people may not want to look at the biggest event in the history of the humans for lessons because what they see may not be what they want to see, especially if it involves doing something more than hoping hard and in a pious manner.

Let's leave the Teutons out of it for a second. When the Italians went on their adventure in Abyssinia they did it only because the Brits let them. I remember reading if the RN had indicated even a slight willingness to stop them, Benito wouldn't have chanced it and sailed on back. That would have had an effect.

The unfortunate plain truth of the matter is that sometimes, you actually gotta do something. A lot of influential people don't want to hear that.

carl

04-21-2014, 07:01 PM

Carl,
Being 50% Swiss and having read some of their govt's reactions to sanctions, I beg to differ with you. There are actually four distinct cultures and languages not counting minorities like the Amish.

But the Swiss are in a bind and not so innocent nor prepared to give up their wealthy trade.

Stan:

I yield to superior knowledge.

My point though was a little different. Because the Swiss nation can be as feckless and stupid as the Americans and the Brits nowadays doesn't mean they aren't a nation. They are even though they have four distinct cultures. That was my point to Wm.

carl

04-21-2014, 07:06 PM

One of the things we have to realize is that with the utter irrrelevence (sic) of the EU and the uselessness of NATO the concept of those organizations or of "Europe" are meaningless now, or will be unless some backbones are grown lickity split. We are going to go back to individual countries and what they are going to do. That is what will matter. What is Poland going to do? What is Sweden going to do? We will have to think in those terms and act accordingly.

If Vlad's adventure isn't contested the world is going to get very much more complicated and therefore very much more dangerous.

Stan

04-21-2014, 07:34 PM

Carl,

Stan:

I figure the biggest event in the history of humans still has a lot of lessons to teach. I figure too that some people may not want to look at the biggest event in the history of the humans for lessons because what they see may not be what they want to see, especially if it involves doing something more than hoping hard and in a pious manner.

As a devout Roman Catholic and a witness to the Rwandan Genocide, I not only think we learned a horrific lesson in humanity, we also learned that if we are going to react, it should have been fast, really fast. But, our system is anything but fast with Congress and Senate on vacations, etc. :rolleyes:

Let's leave the Teutons out of it for a second. When the Italians went on their adventure in Abyssinia they did it only because the Brits let them. I remember reading if the RN had indicated even a slight willingness to stop them, Benito wouldn't have chanced it and sailed on back. That would have had an effect.

Didn't that end with a military occupation of Ethiopia ? They would only later be defeated in Africa ? Why would the USA want to replay that in history on my dime ? Maybe I lost your point herein.

The unfortunate plain truth of the matter is that sometimes, you actually gotta do something. A lot of influential people don't want to hear that.

Agreed 100%, but should be done with every Tom, Dick and Harry. We should not be running with the ball alone.

Yep, it will take an enormous amount of time to get the EU and NATO in gear, ever fearful of another Iraq (they didn't agree with that and most still conclude the war as both illegal and illegitimate). In the meantime, the Ukrainians also need to attach some sort of responsibility to their actions instead of spouting words in the press that get Yankee blood boiling.

Stan

04-21-2014, 07:41 PM

Stan:

I yield to superior knowledge.

My point though was a little different. Because the Swiss nation can be as feckless and stupid as the Americans and the Brits nowadays doesn't mean they aren't a nation. They are even though they have four distinct cultures. That was my point to Wm.

Carl,
The Swiss are Libertarians. They love their cheese and cowbells, but to say they are a single nation is far from the truth. People in Zurich don't say they are Swiss, rather from Zurich as a small example.

They are happy in a pile of dung and would prefer we leave them out of this current impasse. They are as screwed up as Americans are.

04-21-2014, 08:02 PM

Carl,
Part of your post is about the myth by which folks justify giving up personal freedom to some government or other. The most common myth is the old social contract. You are right about Rome and the Soci. Rome did not live up to the terms agreed to by everyone. The Swiss are a different story. The land we call Switzerland is a confederacy of regions called cantons, not a single nation. Most of those cantons are geographically isolated due to the terrain. They are more like the ancient Greek leagues than a nation like France or Italy.
A country is a people and a people a country if they figure they are and are willing to fight to back up the point. That's all. If you throw in natives vs recent immigrants you are throwing in an infinitely variable factor which depends solely on personal opinion, eg. my native is your recent immigrant which is somebody else's returned rightful owner.

One of the main causes of the Social War was the Italian allies were offered Roman citizenship and then the offer was withdrawn. One of the ways the Romans ended that war was by giving the allies Roman citizenship. So the allies fought the Romans for the right to be Roman and lost the war but became Romans. All those different peoples fighting to become part of Rome.

And Roman citizenship was conferred upon most of the residents of Roman territories in 212 AD. So you had very many different peoples becoming Romans, from Syria to the Atlantic to Sahara to the North Sea. The empire lasted rather a long time after that.

As far as the Swiss go, they figure they are a nation or a people or whatever and they will fight to back it up. Since there are three languages spoken there which I am guessing represent three different cultures, sort of, and histories but they decided they are Swiss, live in Switzerland and will shoot you in the heart if you mess with that arrangement.

Stan

04-21-2014, 08:11 PM

Carl,

One of the things we have to realize is that with the utter irrrelevence (sic) of the EU and the uselessness of NATO the concept of those organizations or of "Europe" are meaningless now, or will be unless some backbones are grown lickity split. We are going to go back to individual countries and what they are going to do. That is what will matter. What is Poland going to do? What is Sweden going to do? We will have to think in those terms and act accordingly.

The EU and to some extent our Neutral Nations are all about equal rights and business. So sensitive a subject that courses include mandatory hours of training to recognize every aspect. If you have to apply that in a wartime scenario (we did), all of these strategies fly out the window.

Wasn't it US that mounted a purported Color Coup against the Ukrainian government ? Was it not US that invented a Nuclear Rogue State to support our whining ?

Seems we were doing something.

Poland is already supporting the situation and Sweden and Finland are stymied by constitutional referendums. To say that Sweden is simple standing by and watching the action is hilarious. Their military equipment and ordnance sales looks like a mad shopping spree at Kmart.... While the remainder of us try and keep up.

If Vlad's adventure isn't contested the world is going to get very much more complicated and therefore very much more dangerous.

Agreed. But how ?
I recommend the African version of an overthrow of the thrown. But, we are civilized as someone told me herein on the 2nd amendment thread, and therefore can't do that.

carl

04-21-2014, 09:58 PM

Carl,

As a devout Roman Catholic and a witness to the Rwandan Genocide, I not only think we learned a horrific lesson in humanity, we also learned that if we are going to react, it should have been fast, really fast. But, our system is anything but fast with Congress and Senate on vacations, etc. :rolleyes:

Didn't that end with a military occupation of Ethiopia ? They would only later be defeated in Africa ? Why would the USA want to replay that in history on my dime ? Maybe I lost your point herein.

Agreed 100%, but should be done with every Tom, Dick and Harry. We should not be running with the ball alone.

Yep, it will take an enormous amount of time to get the EU and NATO in gear, ever fearful of another Iraq (they didn't agree with that and most still conclude the war as both illegal and illegitimate). In the meantime, the Ukrainians also need to attach some sort of responsibility to their actions instead of spouting words in the press that get Yankee blood boiling.

Stan:

Our system is slow enough but slow doesn't have to mean stopped. We are stopped now and that is the fault of the chief executive. He is the one who drives the train to the greatest extent and if he don't say go, it won't.

Sorry I was unclear about my Abysinnia point. From what I read it was a gamble on the part of Mussolini. He knew he couldn't get there if the RN said no and he was not prepared to fight the RN in order to go. He bluffed the Brits, folded and his adventure was successful. That helped speed things along to WWII. If the Brits hadn't folded, who knows?

True enough others should be with us, but somebody has to lead the way. That phrase "Follow me." is a very powerful thing.

Very right the Ukrainians have to move, but I wonder how much of their restraint is at the behest of Washington? No great excuse that is of course but when uncle rich guy says be cool boy, be cool, it does have an effect. Hopefully it won't take them to long before they tell uncle rich guy to go stuff it and help or stay out of the way.

carl

04-21-2014, 10:14 PM

Carl,

Wasn't it US that mounted a purported Color Coup against the Ukrainian government ? Was it not US that invented a Nuclear Rogue State to support our whining ?

Seems we were doing something.

Poland is already supporting the situation and Sweden and Finland are stymied by constitutional referendums. To say that Sweden is simple standing by and watching the action is hilarious. Their military equipment and ordnance sales looks like a mad shopping spree at Kmart.... While the remainder of us try and keep up.

Agreed. But how ?
I recommend the African version of an overthrow of the thrown. But, we are civilized as someone told me herein on the 2nd amendment thread, and therefore can't do that.

Stan:

We have done some things I guess but it seems when things get a little bit tougher, we fold.

The people who are doing nothing are the in group, so to speak of Euro nations. They are seemingly willing to throw the second class Euro nations to the wolves and as you say those states are doing for themselves, and a good thing that is too. I should have been more clear in that situation will make things a lot more hard to read, therefore unpredictable, therefore dangerous. It was easy when you could sort of just deal with Europe. It is harder when you have to deal with all those front line states state by state. It will get much harder still if, when they start to nuke up.

There are lots of hows. The first pages of this thread are filled with ideas. But actual action, serious action has to occur. Ya gotta actually do something. An example is the to do that was made of individual economic sanctions being taken against numbers of Russians. Then later it turned out that a whopping one guy was sanctioned. Or the MRE thing. The Ukrainians ask for weapons and we give them boxed lunches. And we won't send them via USAF transport, they have to go by truck so as not to upset Ivan. That is worse than doing nothing.

There are hows but there is not the determination to do. As you said, there is something lacking in us when doing is sniffingly put down as uncivilized. In order to be civilized you got to be alive and if you don't do when history comes calling you will end up dead.

Funny how time in Africa, even a little like for me, sort of peels away layers of things that don't matter.

carl

04-21-2014, 10:18 PM

davidbfpo

04-21-2014, 10:27 PM

The test of that then would be if Switzerland was invaded, would all the Swiss turn out to kill the invaders. Nobody has cared to test them out on that in a very long time. For practical purposes, they are peoples who are one nation. The important thing is, will they fight as one? They will.

Certainly the Swiss I've met have all remarked that military service is one of the national institutions that unites them and continuing reserve service was strongly supported. If you had not served it tended to be a brake on a number of career paths. IIRC they still have national service aka conscription.

Back to the Ukraine even if one momentarily disregards the Russian-Ukrainian aspect there are many factors that reduce national cohesion, individually, collectively and nationally. As some of the recent footage has shown the discipline and security of the Ukrainian security forces (police, national guard and military) is fragile to say the least.

That one army truck, with a load of weapons (RPGs being shown), moving along without an escort and into a roadblock says a lot about the army. Unless the load was sent for a planned delivery. That the police arrived and stood about apparently wasn't good either.

Dayuhan

04-22-2014, 12:46 AM

Holding that line took rather a lot of effort, millions of men, tens of thousands of small war machines like tanks and planes and thousands of large ones like ships and fleets of big bombers. It took decades and decades and it took on the part of the West a clear resolve to actually go to war with all those men and machines if the need arose. It also took demonstrations of that resolve through things like the Berlin Airlift, the Berlin Crisis, fielding the Pershing II missile whether the Soviets liked it or not, US and British submarines constantly on the back of Russian boats and on and on and on. It took Ron and Maggie and the Saudis agreeing to increase oil production to break the Soviet economy, Pope John Paul II carrying on after the Russians tried to have him killed, Solidarity and a lot of brave, brave Poles (we still may have those)and on and on again.

Yes, mostly... except for this:

It took Ron and Maggie and the Saudis agreeing to increase oil production to break the Soviet economy

...which is a complete crock: the reasons behind the oil glut are many and complex, but it was never a deliberate construct targeting the Soviets.

I think you missed the point, though.

First, it needs to be stressed that all the talk about how all is lost if the Ukraine is lost is a load of bollocks. There is no reason to suppose that drawing a line will get suddenly more difficult if things continue to go badly in the Ukraine. Arguably the Ukraine is a poor place to draw a line: there's no functional government, the armed forces are in disarray, and there is a very substantial Russian population, much of which really does want reunion. All of that makes enforcing a drawn line a lot more complicated.

Precisely because drawing a line takes money and will, it's best done when allies (without whom any line-drawing exercise is going to be pretty fluffy in this case) and the domestic audience are really committed to the exercise.

Controlling Putin will of course be a lot easier than controlling the Soviet Union was: this is not Cold War 2.0. Still it will require will on the domestic front and cooperation in Europe. If we don't have those, it's a bad time to start a confrontation.

I don't see any of this as a function of who's in the White House. I don't think any administration in recent memory would have responded much differently.

It is very true that the analyst community missed a great deal here. The Maidan revolution was seen as an unqualified good, a way of sticking it to Putin without risk, and the regional watchers were too busy gloating and trying to figure out how to spread the joy to Belarus that they failed to see that the same revolution was opening the door wide for a Russian move. There's a lesson to be learned there, and I'm not sure it has been.

One obvious takeaway from all this is that Putin is an opportunist. If you give him a break, he'll take it. Among all the talk of deterrence and sanctions, one thing that's being missed is that when you're facing an opportunist, it's best not to give him opportunities. I certainly hope that the other frontline states are watching their borders carefully, monitoring pro-Russian groups, and keeping close tabs on any efforts to kick up a fuss. A few Russian provocateurs arrested and paraded before the media before being kicked unceremoniously back across the border will be a useful thing.

Putin is not Stalin. He wants an excuse, a lever, a justification, no matter how thin. Denying him those opportunities is as important and a whole lot less expensive than the big chest-thumping displays that so many are demanding. A lot of fuss gets made, for example, about how the withdrawal of US armor in Europe opened the door for the Ukraine move. I don't think that meant squat: whatever assets you have nearby mean nothing if you aren't going to use them, and I expect Putin would have reasoned (correctly, and again not specific to this administration) that the US wasn't going to go to war over the Ukraine, and rolled right ahead.

In short it took the West actually doing something and continuing to do something for a very long and expensive time. The reason we did all this was that we realized appeasement doesn't work. Appeasing just means you will have a much harder struggle on your hands later if you don't do what is needed to be done now.

You could argue that in the case of the Cold War in Eastern Europe, appeasement did work. Space was traded for time, an enforceable line was found, and the opponent was effectively contained. The argument that the struggle was harder than it would have been if initiated earlier is not being logically supported here. How does recognizing that we're in a poor position to draw a line at the Ukraine make the defense of Poland more difficult?

Those are real live breathing people with families and friends and goofy hobbies. Real live people that backs may be turned to when they ask for help. That means something.

Yes, the world is a ####ty place. All over the world, real live breathing people with families and friends and hobbies are getting smacked around. Many of them you don't know or care about: I've yet to hear you demand US action to protect, say, the Rohingya, who are getting it from people who make Putin look like Mother Teresa.

This is where you say "so because we can't help everyone, we shouldn't help anyone?" and I reply "no, because we can't help everyone, we have to decide who to help and when based on our own interests, capabilities, and needs".

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 02:39 AM

Despite all the calls for direct action now least the West be seen as emboldening Putin or appeasing him, I think that is misreading the situation. Putin's aspiration are clear to those that can see things through the his eyes (http://blog.oup.com/2014/04/putin-history-crimea-russia-empire/), but they are nominal ... limited.

Of course, the Russian empire and the Soviet Union were not harmonious multicultural paradises, nor is the Russian Federation, but the ideal is still an influence in Russian thinking and policy. At the same time, Putin contradicts this simple vision in worrisome ways. A good example is how he wavers in his March speech between defining Ukrainians as a separate “people” (narod, which also means “nation”) or as part of a larger Russian nation. Until the twentieth century, very few Russians believed that Ukrainians were a nation with their own history and language, and many still question this. Putin works both sides of this argument. On the one hand, he expresses great respect for the “fraternal Ukrainian people [narod],” their “national feelings,” and “the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state.” On the other hand, he argues that what has been happening in Ukraine “pains our hearts” because “we are not simply close neighbors but, as I have said many times already, we are truly one people [narod]. Kiev is the mother of Russian [russkie] cities. Ancient Rus is our common source and we cannot live without each other.”

Putin’s frequent use of the ethno-national term russkii for “Russian,” rather than the more political term rossiiskii, which includes everyone and anything under the Russian state, is important. Even more ominous are Putin’s suggestions about where such an understanding of history should lead. Reminding “Europeans, and especially Germans,” about how Russia “unequivocally supported the sincere, inexorable aspirations of the Germans for national unity,” he expects the West to “support the aspirations of the Russian [russkii] world, of historical Russia, to restore unity.” This suggests a vision, shaped by views of history, that goes beyond protecting minority Russian speakers in the “near-abroad.”

Putinism often tries to blend contradictory ideals—freedom and order, individual rights and the needs of state, multiethnic diversity and national unity. Dismissing these complexities as cynical masks does not help us develop reasoned responses to Putin.

While the author views this statement as an ominous threat to Germany, I could read it as an attempt to get Westerners to understand his mostly ethnic motivations. In the earlier paragraph he refers to the Ukrainians as a separate, people. This could be a ruse, but I see it more as a view into how he thinks. As the rest of the statement says, he expects Westerners to understand what he sees as an ethnic minority/majority seeking to join their brethren. Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same.

From that perspective the best tact might be to pursue stabilization and self determination. Agree to the peacekeepers and establish elections. If Putin is confident then he will agree (but hedge his bets by keeping his spetsnaz in place). Still, it creates a defacto line. If he does not agree than it is an indication of more to come (beyond the obvious ethnic enclaves in places like Estonia).

Dayuhan

04-22-2014, 04:11 AM

...he expects Westerners to understand what he sees as an ethnic minority/majority seeking to join their brethren. Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same.

There has been some discussion on SWC over the years of the possibility that borders are often irrationally drawn and need not be sacrosanct, especially when they are poorly aligned with ethnic, tribal, or cultural reality on the ground. What I find interesting is that the reaction to this possibility is generally quite accommodating when the discussion is about Africa, and very much less so when the discussion is about Europe!

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 12:07 PM

There has been some discussion on SWC over the years of the possibility that borders are often irrationally drawn and need not be sacrosanct, especially when they are poorly aligned with ethnic, tribal, or cultural reality on the ground. What I find interesting is that the reaction to this possibility is generally quite accommodating when the discussion is about Africa, and very much less so when the discussion is about Europe!

Dayuhan---I would go a step further and state a vast majority of African and ME borders were drawn in the interests of the colonial powers and decisions made in 1919 as to who was responsible for what under the post WW1 decisions and League of Nations decisions.

The current problem for Europe is vastly more complex---the SU before is dissolution was in fact comprised of over 136 different language and ethnic groupings held together by Stalin.

Then the breakup---which followed the more traditional method of if it existed in 1994 then so be it and no attempt was made to correct the boundaries nor were Europeans and Russians of a mindset to actually change them.

Then came along the OCSE (with 53 members) and the INF (US/Russia)coupled with the small thing called the Treaty of Westphalia (the former European colonial powers) which tended to treat borders as final---then along came Kosovo which the Russians now use as their premier example of how the West violated all of the above.

Now we have the Putin doctrine which states that is a single country "feels" that it's cultural, ethnicity, and language brothers in a neighboring country are being "mistreated" well then we as the defenders of the defined faith (as we define it) have with emphasis on the have the ultimate right to acquire our fellow brothers and annex them into the "motherland".

That is a serious change of the entire European area as it calls into question the concept of relative peace/economic development since 1989/1994 as seen by many Europeans.

Now what is really interesting is that the Ukraine threw in the face of Russia ie Putin that he should take care of his own "ethnic" minority rights issues as Russia has the same exact problems within her borders as say the Ukraine.

Now super surprisingly Putin announces today that the Russian government needs to pass laws protecting the rights of ethnic minorities ie Germans, Poles, Tartars or any other minority living inside Russia.

Now the question tap tap do I hear a woodpecker in the forest meaning did Putin realize that his own ethnic nationalism driving what I call the Putin doctrine can come back to haunt him in the far eastern regions of Russian which has a high Chinese Russian speaking/Chinese speaking ethnic majorities in some areas that say China could in theory using the Putin doctrine actually "claim" for China?

But if I am "protecting" them via laws then China cannot claim "protection rights".

Following the Putin doctrine in fact opens the gates to border changes in over 300 current hot spots many of them in Asia and Africa.

That is way Europe is up tight.

By the way an interesting small article from the Moscow Times on ethnicity and language and how Putin is misusing the two.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/moscows-false-rationale-to-save-russian-speakers/498581.html

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 01:12 PM

Seems like the Russians are getting what David Maxwell on the blog side calls UW and political warfare.

Title taken from today’s' NYTs

Military Analysis Russia Displays a New Military Prowess in Ukraine’s East

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Russian forces skillfully employed 21st-century tactics that combined cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops in its annexation of Crimea.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/world/europe/new-prowess-for-russians.html?hp&_r=0&gwh=3F809B1F2009F37D6E7744BDBC4EF377&gwt=regi&assetType=nyt_now

They are, and I applaud their use of UW where appropriate, but I think the article makes a number of mistakes imputing Putin's reasoning based on our reaction.

For its intervention in Crimea, the Russians used a so-called snap military exercise to distract attention and hide their preparations.

Was that really a faint, or was it the back-up plan in case additional assistance was required?

While the Kremlin retains the option of mounting a large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine, the immediate purposes of the air and ground forces massed near Ukraine appears to be to deter the Ukrainian military from cracking down in the east and to dissuade the United States from providing substantial military support.

I believe that is imputing motivation based on the results.

We tend to see what we think is there rather than what is there.

My second point is that, while the UW strategy used was effective, it has limited utility outside of this situation. It would not work in locations without a substantial sympathetic population. The artilce both makes that point and avoids it.

Admiral Stavridis agreed that Russia’s strategy would be most effective when employed against a nation with a large number of sympathizers. But he said that Russia’s deft use of cyberwarfare, special forces and conventional troops was a development that NATO needed to study and factor into its planning.

“In all of those areas they have raised their game, and they have integrated them quite capably,” he said. “And I think that has utility no matter where you are operating in the world.”

UW is a tactic that requires some depth of knowledge about the human domain. So, without an accurate assessment of the sentiment of the local population, something we are not good at, UW should probably not be seen as a magic bullet. That said, it is a very powerful tactic in the right situation.

Dayuhan

04-22-2014, 02:17 PM

My second point is that, while the UW strategy used was effective, it has limited utility outside of this situation. It would not work in locations without a substantial sympathetic population. The artilce both makes that point and avoids it.

Is it not also the case that the revolution in the Ukraine provided an exceptional opportunity to put a plan like this into operation? I have no doubt that the Russians have long considered the possibility of agitating ethnic Russians in neighboring countries as an excuse for intervention; that's too obvious a ploy to overlook... but the general breakdown in order and government capability certainly provided an exceptional opportunity to move.

It struck me the other day that if the Ukrainian government believes that a substantial majority in the east wants to remain part of the Ukraine, wouldn't it make sense to preempt the Russians by having their own referendum, with international observers (including Russians) and a real effort to assure that only Ukrainian citizens vote? Obviously the would have to be confidence in the outcome, but if you have the confidence, it could be a useful proactive step.

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 02:42 PM

It struck me the other day that if the Ukrainian government believes that a substantial majority in the east wants to remain part of the Ukraine, wouldn't it make sense to preempt the Russians by having their own referendum, with international observers (including Russians) and a real effort to assure that only Ukrainian citizens vote? Obviously the would have to be confidence in the outcome, but if you have the confidence, it could be a useful proactive step.

It would, which makes me feel that they are not confident of the outcome.

The only way this could work is with a third party (i.e. UN) presence to ensure that the vote is fair (unlike the vote in the Crimea). Still, it is the kind of thing that could buy time and cool down passions … at least until the votes are counted and someone loses.

04-22-2014, 03:23 PM

04-22-2014, 03:28 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 04:24 PM

Outlaw cited NYT.

I'm not very educated in history, but to me Crimea operations reminds this operation in much less favourable environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Estonian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat_attempt

Back then the Soviets used communist parties to make trouble, today it seems that they are using Russian nationalist narrative to do the same.

This book seems to be interesting. Price starts from 100 USD!?! :-0

http://books.google.be/books?id=buS6T33wrioC&pg=PA18&lpg=PA18&dq=Comintern+razvedupr&source=bl&ots=nE43X8pIeX&sig=o5-tYap7As3MgoTbSvPoS6epHb4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=yIBWU8nyKIjQ0QWm-4GAAQ&ved=0CCsQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=Comintern%20razvedupr&f=false

kaur---by the way you were correct in finding the Russian special ops guy with the beard whose picture was also released by the Ukrainians as having been in the Crimea as well as in Georgia in 2008.

kaur

04-22-2014, 04:31 PM

Outlaw, if you look at the beard then you see that those beards are different. GRU Chechen Vostok guy has read beard, Slavyansk guy has grey/black. IMHO this Slavyansk guy is Crimea cossack. During first day they even had cossack hats. Today the specific hats are gone.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/14/prorussian-militias-fill-vacuum-kiev-control-eastern-ukraine-slips

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 04:33 PM

I have mentioned here a number of times and used a number of times the term ethnic nationalist which seemed to not be well liked by mirhond.

I have also used the concept that Russia foreign policy is really composed of four legs 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) the oligarchs and 4) the Russian mafia and related gangs.

This weekend I had an opportunity of meeting a number of French think tank guys working in Strasbourg (who had a number of years in both Russia and the Ukraine and were fluent in Russian) that opened my eyes to an overriding layer that sits on top of the four groups.

Namely the Russian Orthodox Church which they claim has far more influence/input that many in the West fully understand especially if one understands the relationship between the Church and Stalin in the dark days as Germany raced towards Moscow---there was an alliance recreated that allowed the Church to grow and actually survive nicely all the years under so called Communist control.

Then today this comes up in a Foreign Policy article that goes in the same direction that the think tank guys were talking about--namely the influence of the Church on Putin and the Russian population in general--they even indicated that one must do a thorough review of the Church and it's relationship to the Soviet Communist Party and how it actually grew in power during those times when the West felt it had been oppressed.

"The Russian Orthodox Church thus comes increasingly to the fore as a symbol and bastion of these traditional values and all that they mean for the new imperialism. Russian Orthodoxy was never an especially evangelical faith, concentrating on survival and purity over expansion, and much the same could be said of Putin's worldview. In Putin's previous presidency, the church was supportive, but just one of many of his allies. Now, though, from the pulpit to television news programs, the church is one of the most consistent and visible supporters of Putin's state-building project. When interviewed on the subject of Crimea, Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, one of Putin's cassocked cheerleaders, asserted that the church has long believed that "the Russian people are a divided nation on its historical territory, which has the right to be reunited in a single public body."

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/21/putin_s_empire_of_the_mind_russia_geopolitics

kaur

04-22-2014, 04:34 PM

This guy on the left was in Slovyansk.

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 04:50 PM

This guy on the left was in Slovyansk.

kaur---go back and watch this video posted by the Ukrainian SBU and carried by CNN.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/authorities-russia-behind-easter-weekend-attacks-and-building-seizures-in-eastern-regions-344594.html

Yes you are right the beard is red but then check the black and greying areas of the other photos and then realize that special operations units all work with facial makeup ie either fake beards and or beard coloring which is the case in the red photo---was a bad hair dyeing case of red as it did not blend well with the real black and grey colors---by the way red is an easy color to wash out.

Would tend to go with the SBU's photo ID work.

kaur

04-22-2014, 05:26 PM

This read beard is identified as deputy head of "Vostok" unit Hamzat Gairbekov (начальник разведки ныне расформированного батальона ГРУ "Восток" Хамзат Гайрбеков). In Russian internet you can find some additional information about this guy.

from the video
00:39 "CNN can't confirm the authenticity of the images. Some are poor quality"

This is the cossack vs Gairbekov.

kaur

04-22-2014, 05:42 PM

1 more

davidbfpo

04-22-2014, 06:01 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 06:02 PM

This read beard is identified as deputy head of "Vostok" unit Hamzat Gairbekov (начальник разведки ныне расформированного батальона ГРУ "Восток" Хамзат Гайрбеков). In Russian internet you can find some additional information about this guy.

from the video

This is the cossack vs Gairbekov.

kaur---turn the photo sideways and I think the left ear are matches. Actually your last photo if turned having the individual looking straight ahead and showing the left ear---are the same individual---ears are far more accurate as the Israeli's will tell you.

OUTLAW 09

04-22-2014, 06:18 PM

In a rather curious way I didn't expect a headlin akin to 'Blame the Germans', but The Daily Beast has this headline 'Germany Helped Prep Russia for War, U.S. Sources Say':
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/22/germany-helped-prep-russia-for-war-u-s-sources-say.html

The most significant passage comes at the end:

David---the exercises referenced in Germany were Atlas Vision 12 and 13 with 14 having been cancelled which was scheduled for to be in Russia in 2014.

What was completed in December 2012 in Garmish was viewed as being historic and the Russians used the term historic and anyone knowing Russians know they do not use the term historic lightly but the majority of the Army officers including the COL who had been the Army rep in Moscow failed to grasp the significance--what was missing was the merging of the US staff decision making process over the Russian decision making process which if one thinks about it is in the fact the missing key when creating simulation generated scenarios which is where Rheinmetal was working---the Germans had a high respect for the US Army simulation center located in Grafenwoehr Germany and was aware of it's capabilities which by the way one similar one was built in Poland together with the US software platforms and do not think for a moment the FSB does not watch Poland and or not have it's agents inside the Polish Army as the old SB worked closely with the KGB.

Remember also the Germans had representative trainer staff at the Special Forces International Training Center in southern Germany and where aware of the various training SF scenarios.

In conversations with German staff process instructors in Oberammergau in late 2012---even though they have been around the US for a long number of years the MDMP process as we had developed it during Iraq and AFG which was evolving and which was no longer what one found in the doctrine manual---even in 2012 they still really did not get it and would openly say it---that is what the Russians were after.

The senior Russian officers during both exercises would often say that it was the US that had over 13 years of professional combat experience and that was what they wanted to emulate.

Hill was the last USAREUR Russian intel analyst in Europe and she was sent home in early 2013 with the explanation there is no longer a need for Russian analysts--not surprised she is at Brookings---she was solid in her work---she watched me work the senior officers and was always surprised at what they were telling me but again no one wanted to write a single intel report on what she and I were hearing---they were more interested in who was the GRU guy.

kaur

04-22-2014, 07:00 PM

Outlaw, I'm not nose and ear specialist :)

Let's try this way with voice.

Watch this movie from 4:13 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SOXg_YJGhsU

Watch this movie from 3:33 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

I think that Soviets already know that political warfare thing and this is not something new for Russians.

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 07:19 PM

Re-Launch (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/ukraine-president-urges-action-after-signs-of-torture-found-on-slain-politician/article18094487/)of anti-terrorist campaign:

Ukraine’s acting president called for the relaunch of an anti-terrorist operation in the east of the country on Tuesday after the body of a local politician from his own party was found showing signs of torture.

Oleksander Turchynov said in a statement that “brutally tortured” bodies had been found near the city of Slaviansk, which is in the hands of pro-Russian militants. One was that of Volodymyr Rybak, a member of Turchinov’s Batkivshchyna party, who had recently been abducted by “terrorists.”

“These crimes are being carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation,” he said. “I call on the security agencies to relaunch and carry out effective anti-terrorist measures, with the aim of protecting Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from terrorists.”

In a statement from regional headquarters in Donetsk, police said the body of a man who died a violent death had been found in the Seversky-Donets river and that it resembled Rybak, a local councillor in the town of Horlivka, near Donetsk.

carl

04-22-2014, 07:29 PM

The myth I meant is the myth of the social contract, that all the citizens of a country somehow agreed to be part of that country and be bound by its laws. Did you every make such an agreement?
BTW what in Switzerland would be worth the trouble of invading the place?

No myth. You live it every day. Synonyms for contract include arrangement, understanding and compact. So if you don't like social contract, you can use arrangement by which we live. However you describe it, it is. It can be as simple as following the rules of courtesy or as complicated at riparian law, but it is and you and I live by it.

Your question should more properly be, what in Switzerland is worth fighting the Swiss to get it.?

04-22-2014, 08:37 PM

No myth. You live it every day. Synonyms for contract include arrangement, understanding and compact. So if you don't like social contract, you can use arrangement by which we live. However you describe it, it is. It can be as simple as following the rules of courtesy or as complicated at riparian law, but it is and you and I live by it.

Your question should more properly be, what in Switzerland is worth fighting the Swiss to get it.?

Your synonyms are different forms of the same myth. In the US at least only naturalized citizens every make something like the agreement required to give the government any legitimate limitation of your freedom in a politic system that takes rights as primitive, meaning without antecedent causality for their existence. For the rest of us, it might be a verbal contract that is only as good as the paper on which it is printed.

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 09:16 PM

Just for fun ...

The myth of the Social Contract is a necessity of a liberal society. Hobbes needed something beyond religion to explain why were no longer engaged in the war of all against all. Since that was before the recognition that man is simply a social animal and huddles together in groups naturally, and despite the fact that Socrates noted that man was a political (social) animal, the myth of the Social contract was created. Others like Locke added to it, although Locke believed that man lived in a moral state of nature in effect, denying the idea of “the fall from grace”. Still, unable to finding our social nature in secular theory, Locke’s ideas rested on that morality origins in God-given commands to act in a moral way. Rousseau came the closest to a secular theory for man’s social nature, although he did cling to the idea of the “fall from grace” as the reason for property rights.

That is the basis of the individual in relation to society. Rousseau went farther to argue that from that state of nature, the only way to defend ourselves was to create limitation on our natural rights.

Through the collective renunciation of the individual rights and freedom that one has in the State of Nature, and the transfer of these rights to the collective body, a new ‘person’, as it were, is formed. The sovereign is thus formed when free and equal persons come together and agree to create themselves anew as a single body, directed to the good of all considered together. So, just as individual wills are directed towards individual interests, the general will, once formed, is directed towards the common good, understood and agreed to collectively. Included in this version of the social contract is the idea of reciprocated duties: the sovereign is committed to the good of the individuals who constitute it, and each individual is likewise committed to the good of the whole. Given this, individuals cannot be given liberty to decide whether it is in their own interests to fulfill their duties to the Sovereign, while at the same time being allowed to reap the benefits of citizenship. They must be made to conform themselves to the general will, they must be “forced to be free”http://www.iep.utm.edu/soc-cont/

TheCurmudgeon

04-22-2014, 10:23 PM

... and so it begins (http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140422/NEWS08/304220055/4-Army-units-heading-Eastern-Europe) ...

The U.S. military in Europe is sending four company-sized infantry units, a total of about 600 soldiers, to Eastern Europe, the latest effort to reassure NATO allies in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine, a Pentagon official said Tuesday.

Four countries — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — each will receive a company of paratroopers from the U.S. Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team based in Vicenza, Italy, said Pentagon spokesman Rear. Adm. John Kirby.

U.S. European Command will maintain a rotation of ground forces in those countries for at least the next several months. The companies will conduct live-fire training exercises with local military forces for about one month, then will depart and be replaced by another U.S. Army company, Kirby said.

“What we’re after here is persistent presence, a persistent rotational presence,” Kirby said.

The deployments are “the first in a series of expanded U.S. land forces training activities” in Eastern Europe that will be announced in the coming week, Kirby said.

“Since Russian aggression in Ukraine, we have been constantly looking for ways to reassure our allies and partners … of our commitment to Article 5,” Kirby said, referring to the key element of the NATO alliance treaty that states an attack on one of the 28 member countries will be considered an attack on all.

Get what you can there fast, the rest takes more time ...

04-22-2014, 11:44 PM

Just for fun ...

The myth of the Social Contract is a necessity of a liberal society. Hobbes needed something beyond religion to explain why were no longer engaged in the war of all against all. Since that was before the recognition that man is simply a social animal and huddles together in groups naturally, and despite the fact that Socrates noted that man was a political (social) animal, the myth of the Social contract was created. Others like Locke added to it, although Locke believed that man lived in a moral state of nature in effect, denying the idea of “the fall from grace”. Still, unable to finding our social nature in secular theory, Locke’s ideas rested on that morality origins in God-given commands to act in a moral way. Rousseau came the closest to a secular theory for man’s social nature, although he did cling to the idea of the “fall from grace” as the reason for property rights.

That is the basis of the individual in relation to society. Rousseau went farther to argue that from that state of nature, the only way to defend ourselves was to create limitation on our natural rights.

http://www.iep.utm.edu/soc-cont/

Hobbes actually claimed that mankind has a duty to seek peace and that creating the the Great Leviathan (AKA a government) is the only way to do that. In Hobbes' view, people have no right of revolution either--if your governance is bad, you must just suck it down. The state of nature would be even worse.

For Locke things are a little better because Locke starts from a state of nature where natural resources are not scares(scarcity is a fact for Hobbes). As a result Locke's social contract focuses on rights rather than duties.

Rousseau seems to waffle on rights and duties.

So again, part of the myth includes one's view of the state of nature out of which a group of folks come together to form a nation/government.

However, to one of Stan's points and his parenthetic claim of identity above, even though we were social before we were human, that does not necessarily mean we were political as well. Being political does not equal being social. I think both Plato and Aristotle, the first 2 Western political theorists, at least the first two with significant extant written work, agree on that point.

TheCurmudgeon

04-23-2014, 12:36 AM

However, to one of Stan's points and his parenthetic claim of identity above, even though we were social before we were human, that does not necessarily mean we were political as well. Being political does not equal being social. I think both Plato and Aristotle, the first 2 Western political theorists, at least the first two with significant extant written work, agree on that point.

I agree, it is the quote from Aristotle about man being a political animal can be interpreted as simply a recognition that man is a social animal, not prone to living alone.

Aristotle lays the foundations for his political theory in Politics book I by arguing that the city-state and political rule are “natural.” The argument begins with a schematic, quasi-historical account of the development of the city-state out of simpler communities. First, individual human beings combined in pairs because they could not exist apart. The male and female joined in order to reproduce, and the master and slave came together for self-preservation. The natural master used his intellect to rule, and the natural slave employed his body to labor. Second, the household arose naturally from these primitive communities in order to serve everyday needs. Third, when several households combined for further needs a village emerged also according to nature. Finally, “the complete community, formed from several villages, is a city-state, which at once attains the limit of self-sufficiency, roughly speaking. It comes to be for the sake of life, and exists for the sake of the good life” (I.2.1252b27–30). http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle-politics/supplement3.html

As noted later, a thing is either natural, as in it exists that way in a natural state, or it is crafted; created by man. Modern theorists need to alter that view by claiming that Aristotle must have meant something else:

For on Aristotle's theory a thing either exists by nature or by craft; it cannot do both. (This difficulty is posed by David Keyt.) Aristotle can seemingly escape this dilemma only if it is supposed that he speaks of the city-state as “natural” in another sense of the term.

But I believe Aristotle meant exactly what he said. Man has a natural proclivity to live in groups. Therefore, the "Social contract" is a natural condition of man. The government that man builds to protect man from his fellow man is artificial.

For example, he might mean that it is “natural” in the extended sense that it arises from human natural inclinations (to live in communities) for the sake of human natural ends, but that it remains unfinished until a lawgiver provides it with a constitution.

Later theorists don't start with the social man. They start with man as an individual who only comes together in groups for the common good. That is backwards ... if you believe Aristotle ... and I'm with him.

Also, we should probably get back to the subject of the thread ....

kaur

04-23-2014, 11:30 AM

Here is nice show going on in Eastern Ukraine. Local elite let's Russian specialists play their Ukraine splitting game, unless they lose their business empire.

All the indications are that the separatists’ actions are being supported by a large part of the local power elite, including Rinat Akhmetov, the richest and most influential person in the country’s east. His statements show that he supports the idea of the region’s autonomy; he has declared himself in favour of negotiations with the separatists, and opposes the use of force by Kyiv. The separatists’ activities have also been openly supported by some deputies from the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. The lack of response from the local police and SBU branches means that Kyiv has effectively lost control of them, and that they are now subordinate to the local elites.

http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014-04-16/ukraine-closer-to-losing-eastern-part-country

What is the IQ of this guy (starts at 1:00 asking help from Putin in Russian)? Does he representative of majority of this regions people? This must be joke.

http://lifenews.ru/news/131658

This is the cadre that is coordinating this low level show there. There is SBU intercepted calls. Russian guy admits that he has been in Ukraine lately and Crimea leader Aksenov's advisor (direct link to Crimea cossacks unit)and other people. He gives also order to talk to Lifenews correspondent (which channel is most active there) and gives instructions what political demands are.

http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/Rossiyskiy-politolog-Boroday-nazval-falshivkoy-zapisi-SBU-s-ego-golosom-19005.html

This is just one cadre representative from Russia. There are also much high ranking guys pulling string ...

Russian plan in Ukraine?

С учетом коммерциализации украинской властвующей элиты, наиболее значимым является экономический канал воздействия, затрагивающий личные интересы наиболее влиятельных лиц из украинской властвующей элиты. Предварительный анализ структур бизнеса Фирташа, Ахметова, Пинчука, Порошенко и других ключевых фигур, определяющих украинскую политику (преимущественно в антироссийском прозападном направлении), свидетельствует об их критической зависимости от российских кредиторов, рынков сбыта, источников сырья. Большой эффект может дать активизация других украинских бизнесменов, имеющих большой потенциал политического влияния. Наряду с государственными корпорациями оказать влияние на них могут ведущие активную работу на Украине Альфа-банк, Лукойл, АФК "Система"; компания "РУСАЛ", Группа компаний "ЕВРАЗ" и др. частные структуры, которые также целесообразно вовлечь в работу.

http://gazeta.zn.ua/internal/o-komplekse-mer-po-vovlecheniyu-ukrainy-v-evraziyskiy-integracionnyy-process-_.html

I say it one more time. This small bunch of spoilers on the ground is for Predator operator peace of cake. Ukrainians don't have the capacity, Americans won't provide it and show goes on. Sorry, now the Geneva deal is not allowing this kind of action. Provocators, stage is yours.

carl

04-23-2014, 01:32 PM

Your synonyms are different forms of the same myth. In the US at least only naturalized citizens every make something like the agreement required to give the government any legitimate limitation of your freedom in a politic system that takes rights as primitive, meaning without antecedent causality for their existence. For the rest of us, it might be a verbal contract that is only as good as the paper on which it is printed.

You may say it is a myth, but I am pretty simple so I can only go by what I see and live. And what I see as I'm living is people abiding by a whole host of unwritten rules and disapproving of those who do not and pressuring them in an informal way to abide by those rules. What I see is people recognizing and abiding by an implicit understanding of what is acceptable and what is not, a social contract so to speak. I hold a door open for an old person or a woman or a child I get a thank you and a pleasant nod. I got in line I get a sharp glance and perhaps a sharp word. There are multiple examples of that every day.

You are entirely wrong about "only naturalized citizens". My personal experience is that recent Mexcian border crossers, both legal and illegal, are quite willing to live by the implicit social contract that defines everyday life in the US but have trouble doing that on occasion because they don't know what it is. There used to be a program in Colorado for guys like that. It was called the 'Living in America' program that would teach what the parameters of that social contract were. They would get picked up for doing something that was ok down south but not here, like driving around on a Friday night with a few buddies and a case of beer. The idea of the program was to tell them that no, you can't do that here and there are some other things you can't do too. I read even though the program was mostly meant as a sentencing provision some people signed up for it on their own because they wanted to know what was acceptable in the US ans what was not, the outlines of the implicit social contract.

carl

04-23-2014, 02:14 PM

Despite all the calls for direct action now least the West be seen as emboldening Putin or appeasing him, I think that is misreading the situation. Putin's aspiration are clear to those that can see things through the his eyes (http://blog.oup.com/2014/04/putin-history-crimea-russia-empire/), but they are nominal ... limited.

While the author views this statement as an ominous threat to Germany, I could read it as an attempt to get Westerners to understand his mostly ethnic motivations. In the earlier paragraph he refers to the Ukrainians as a separate, people. This could be a ruse, but I see it more as a view into how he thinks. As the rest of the statement says, he expects Westerners to understand what he sees as an ethnic minority/majority seeking to join their brethren. Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same.

From that perspective the best tact might be to pursue stabilization and self determination. Agree to the peacekeepers and establish elections. If Putin is confident then he will agree (but hedge his bets by keeping his spetsnaz in place). Still, it creates a defacto line. If he does not agree than it is an indication of more to come (beyond the obvious ethnic enclaves in places like Estonia).

I didn't see anything in the article you cited nor do I see anything in the actions of Putin's Russia that suggests their goals are limited. Indeed immediately after the sentence you put in bold comes this sentence "This suggests a vision, shaped by views of history, that goes beyond protecting minority Russian speakers in the “near-abroad.”" The entire article spoke of how Putin seems to be filled with visions of a glorious Russian past and strongly suggests that restoring that glory is his prime motivation. That is not a limited goal.

I don't see anything in Russian actions that suggest Putin's goals are limited either. The moves into Crimea and east Ukraine were very well organized moves by Russian military forces. There was nothing extemporized about any of it. This suggests they were the result of very long term planning and practice. That includes all the actions from Russian soldiers pretending to be Ukrainians to the propaganda about ethnic repression and Nazis running amuck. None of that existed in any important way last year. It all started after his man in Kiev got booted out and the Sochi Olympics ended. This statement of yours "Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same." indicates a willingness to accept Putin's propaganda at face value when all the evidence indicates that everything that has happened is the result of pre-meditated Russian aggression.

There is no reason at all to believe that Putin intends to stop, especially since ha is meeting no real resistance. He is only about 60 so he has a lot of years to become Vlad the Great through conquest. But at the same time he is around 60 already so if he wants to be Vlad the Great he had better keep moving.

kaur

04-23-2014, 02:37 PM

Stan

04-23-2014, 02:45 PM

... and so it begins (http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140422/NEWS08/304220055/4-Army-units-heading-Eastern-Europe) ...

Get what you can there fast, the rest takes more time ...

What exactly are they going to get...

150 airborne troops without parachutes and small arms (http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/usa-maavae-ulem-euroopas-delfile-voimalusel-harjutame-ka-ohudessantoperatsioone.d?id=68496463) :confused:

In addition to being part of annual Spring Storm exercises this symbolic troop rotation is probably making the 10s of thousands of Russian troops across the borders roll on the floor, LMAO.

What in creation :D

The deployment of ground troops is part of bilateral agreements with the four countries and is separate from the broader effort of the NATO alliance to step up military readiness across its vast eastern border.

Seems we forgot that NATO should be running the show and have yet again stepped into the breech blindly. Afghanistan anyone ?

davidbfpo

04-23-2014, 02:54 PM

Somebody has done good job. It seems that Russian hard core nationalists are fighting for Ukraine. Main declared opponent is Right sector, Ukrainian nationalists. Crazy ...

http://inforesist.org/znakomtes-blizhe-opoznany-vse-chleny-diversionnoj-gruppy-na-donbasse/

Kaur,

A good catch that, leaving aside the website's views and readers should note the article can be transalted on the website to English (small US flag icon).

Perhasp someone in Kiev will note the rather odd - to say the least about those depicted as a patriots or 'men in green' wearing this badge:http://inforesist.org/wp-content/uploads/8LtXv_1Zg9U.jpg?4bbbe8

The website says:
For clarity’s sake, the symbol is that of Andrei Shkuro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Shkuro)‘s ‘Terek Wolf Company’, a detachment of White emigre Cossacks who fought for Nazi Germany during the second world war.

Wiki on Andrei Shkuro:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Shkuro

I note his anti-Semitism, could this group's presence explain the handing out of leaflets requiring Jewish registration?

Incidentally Shkuro, along with many others surrendered to the British in Austria in 1945 and was handed over to the KGB, he was later executed.

carl

04-23-2014, 02:59 PM

Yes, mostly... except for this:

...which is a complete crock: the reasons behind the oil glut are many and complex, but it was never a deliberate construct targeting the Soviets.

A complete crock? Perhaps, but I think not. That is not the point though. The point was the Soviet Union broke up because it was opposed, as you conceded.

I think you missed the point, though.

First, it needs to be stressed that all the talk about how all is lost if the Ukraine is lost is a load of bollocks. There is no reason to suppose that drawing a line will get suddenly more difficult if things continue to go badly in the Ukraine. Arguably the Ukraine is a poor place to draw a line: there's no functional government, the armed forces are in disarray, and there is a very substantial Russian population, much of which really does want reunion. All of that makes enforcing a drawn line a lot more complicated.

Precisely because drawing a line takes money and will, it's best done when allies (without whom any line-drawing exercise is going to be pretty fluffy in this case) and the domestic audience are really committed to the exercise.

Controlling Putin will of course be a lot easier than controlling the Soviet Union was: this is not Cold War 2.0. Still it will require will on the domestic front and cooperation in Europe. If we don't have those, it's a bad time to start a confrontation.

Saying if Ukraine goes all is lost is a load of bollocks. But that is not what is being said, at least not by me. I have said that it will be a lot easier to actively work to save Ukraine now thereby stopping Russian aggression now than it will be to let it go under and then having to stop Vlad later. It will be harder because if he gets away with this, Vlad's Russia will be materially stronger and much more confident therefore much harder to fight and stop.

'Europe' doesn't matter. Poland matters. Sweden matters. The Czech Republic matters. The Ukraine matters. All of those countries and others have plenty of motivation to resist strongly. All they need from us are money and weapons and a little evidence of backbone. We've supplied none.

I don't see any of this as a function of who's in the White House. I don't think any administration in recent memory would have responded much differently.

Foreign policy is who is in the White House. Reagan is part of my recent memory and I wouldn't think he would stand passively by. My opinion only of course. Bush II initiated the Surge in Iraq in the face of great opposition, that is in my recent memory too.

One obvious takeaway from all this is that Putin is an opportunist. If you give him a break, he'll take it. Among all the talk of deterrence and sanctions, one thing that's being missed is that when you're facing an opportunist, it's best not to give him opportunities. I certainly hope that the other frontline states are watching their borders carefully, monitoring pro-Russian groups, and keeping close tabs on any efforts to kick up a fuss. A few Russian provocateurs arrested and paraded before the media before being kicked unceremoniously back across the border will be a useful thing.

Yes, exactly. In order to stop an aggressive thug like Putin, you actually have to do something.

Putin is not Stalin. He wants an excuse, a lever, a justification, no matter how thin. Denying him those opportunities is as important and a whole lot less expensive than the big chest-thumping displays that so many are demanding. A lot of fuss gets made, for example, about how the withdrawal of US armor in Europe opened the door for the Ukraine move. I don't think that meant squat: whatever assets you have nearby mean nothing if you aren't going to use them, and I expect Putin would have reasoned (correctly, and again not specific to this administration) that the US wasn't going to go to war over the Ukraine, and rolled right ahead.

Two things about this statement. First, unless you want to freeze the world in place as it is at this second, Putin will always find an excuse to aggress. If he can't find one he'll just send in the provocateurs you mentioned above and create one, as he is doing now.

Second, you are right about him having reasoned that the US won't do anything. But you are wrong about that not being peculiar to this administration. After having rolled the chief executive with a word over the ABM system in east Europe and made a fool of him in Syria I think he concluded that fecklessness is a prime characteristic of this chief executive. My opinion only of course.

You could argue that in the case of the Cold War in Eastern Europe, appeasement did work. Space was traded for time, an enforceable line was found, and the opponent was effectively contained. The argument that the struggle was harder than it would have been if initiated earlier is not being logically supported here. How does recognizing that we're in a poor position to draw a line at the Ukraine make the defense of Poland more difficult?

Appeasement does not refer to the Cold War. It refers to Europe pre-WWII.

Yes, the world is a ####ty place. All over the world, real live breathing people with families and friends and hobbies are getting smacked around. Many of them you don't know or care about: I've yet to hear you demand US action to protect, say, the Rohingya, who are getting it from people who make Putin look like Mother Teresa.

This is where you say "so because we can't help everyone, we shouldn't help anyone?" and I reply "no, because we can't help everyone, we have to decide who to help and when based on our own interests, capabilities, and needs".

How lightly you dismiss all those real live people asking our help who live in a country being invaded by the Russians or looking at threat on the horizon.

Rohingya is not a nation being invaded by another, it is sad thing within a nation. Therefore there is not threat to the international order that comes when nations invade others; which goes then goes to your statement about our interests, capabilities and needs, all of which apply to Ukraine and not so much to Burma. Besides, we can always tell the Rohingyans "the world is a ####ty place."

I wasn't going to say that. I was going to say that you help when and it isn't wrong to do so just because you can't always help.

(You gotta go a long way to make a KGB guy look like Mother Teresa. Tens of millions of dead Russians attest to that.)

kaur

04-23-2014, 03:03 PM

David, this cossack/KGB victim episode shows once again what kind of ideological mess is there.

Stan, I think they have even this kind of Glocks. Irony is again that West basher Rogozin is involved to Glock business in Russia.

http://www.breitbart.com/system/wire/5ce3d5d1-8907-4bfa-a7b1-abcfc3d22dea

Ps Costa has regular model 17 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNMGh7sDFtI

TheCurmudgeon

04-23-2014, 04:26 PM

What exactly are they going to get...

In addition to being part of annual Spring Storm exercises this symbolic troop rotation is probably making the 10s of thousands of Russian troops across the borders roll on the floor, LMAO.

The deployments at this time are symbolic. More will come.

Also the press release made it clear that these troops were in addition to the normal NATO/Joint excercises.

Seems we forgot that NATO should be running the show and have yet again stepped into the breech blindly. Afghanistan anyone ?

That is actually the more interesting thing. The press release for this came out of the Warsaw Embassy. Not out of Brussels. As I said, it is currently symbolic but it indicates a willingness to move American troops. In addition there are navel movements into the Black Sea and the F16s already moved to Poland. These all appear to be unilateral actions not part of a general NATO response.

Now, that could be because the US is being asked to do this; or

because the US felt it had to; or

because NATO could not agree on an action; or

because NATO countries did not feel they could openly sanction these actions.

In any case, it is interesting that these multiple bi-lateral agreements with Baltic countries (including Estonia, I blame you for that) are happening. That the announcement came out of Warsaw would indicate that they were meant for local consumption.

Still hard to read.

Clearly one battalion of Airborne Infantry are not going to stop 40K Heavy Russian Soldiers, but I don’t believe that is their purpose.

Waiting to see what the further rotational units will be.

TheCurmudgeon

04-23-2014, 04:40 PM

It could just be that it takes more time to get everyone in NATO to agree to a plan. This report of addtional NATO troops moving to Eastern Europe is three weeks old ...

Nato planners are currently looking at options including situating permanent military bases in the Baltic states to reassure members in Eastern Europe.

Russia's actions in Ukraine have caused concern in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - all Nato members which were part of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Nato jets will take part in air patrols in the region later in a routine exercise that analysts say has taken on added significance because of the crisis. Several Nato countries, including the UK, US and France, have offered additional military aircraft.

But Mr Lavrov accused Nato of exaggerating the importance of Russian troop movements on the borders of eastern Ukraine.

He said Russia had the right to move troops within its territory, and that the forces currently near the border would return to their permanent bases after completing military exercises.

Moscow also announced that some of its special forces would be taking part in a joint military exercise in Belarus later this month.

Russia's defence ministry said a unit of its paratroopers will join their Belarusian counterparts to rehearse assault operations from 15-18 April in the north of the country.

Meanwhile, Germany's ambassador to Russia was summoned by the Russian foreign ministry on Thursday after Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble likened Moscow's moves in Crimea to Adolf Hitler's 1938 annexation of German-speaking regions of Czechoslovakia.

"We consider such pseudo-historical references by the German minister provocative," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. "The comparisons by him are a gross manipulation of historic facts."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26866989

Yesterday's actions appear to be more a stopgap untill a unified course of action could be agreed to.

Soldiers from the 173rd, based out of Vicenza, Italy, witnessed some of the harshest combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. The gritty actions of its 2nd Battalion in the Korengal Valley were documented in the 2010 documentary, “Restrepo.” They will be engaged in “infantry training exercises,” with troops from the four countries, all NATO treaty signatories, according to Kirby.

The Pentagon’s decision is more than just a gesture to reaffirm solidarity with its NATO allies, Kirby said.

“Any time you put troops on the ground ... it’s more than just [symbolism],” he said.

The USS Taylor will also steam into the Black Sea, where the USS Donald Cook remains. The Taylor had been there in February during the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, and had to be retrofitted in a Turkish port after running aground. The Donald Cook made headlines earlier in April when a Russian fighter jet buzzed it. Kirby confirmed there have been no further interaction with Russian forces since.

The deployment of the 173rd will be strictly on a bilateral basis with those four countries, not through a larger NATO action. Concerns have circulated, including through a report from the Atlantic Council, that some other members of NATO are reticent to get involved militarily in action clearly designed to test the Russian resolve.

Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s top general and the commander of U.S. European Command, remains in discussions with other NATO leaders over further plans, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said last week.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/04/22/us-sends-600-airborne-infantry-troops-to-poland-baltics

Perhaps the WH is rethinking there stand on any chance of a negotiated settlement with Russia .....

The Obama administration appears to have all but concluded that a diplomatic agreement struck last week to try to deescalate the Ukraine crisis isn’t working. The White House already has announced more new non-lethal assistance to Kiev, and the next step could be new rounds of sanctions on Russian leaders.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/american-troops-eastern-europe-ukraine-russia-105910.html

Stan

04-23-2014, 04:50 PM

The deployments at this time are symbolic. More will come.

Also the press release made it clear that these troops were in addition to the normal NATO/Joint excercises.

Stan,
A press release from Warsaw indicated more troops would come, or more rotations would follow ?

Yep, there have been hundreds of joint exercises here since 94 and they indeed will continue.

That is actually the more interesting thing. The press release for this came out of the Warsaw Embassy. Not out of Brussels. As I said, it is currently symbolic but it indicates a willingness to move American troops. In addition there are navel movements into the Black Sea and the F16s already moved to Poland. These all appear to be unilateral actions not part of a general NATO response.

Agree, slightly strange, but we have no idea who was to be first to blow the lid. Something symbolic with State and who gets to do what first. At the end of the day, it's State's money and they call the shots. Brussels means Jack to State. We stand to "once again stand alone" without a voted response regardless of why we think NATO is dead alpha slow in making decisions. We however risk yet more isolation and more spying stuff. We lack a thought process when we think with our little head.

A symbolic gesture to move our sierra here and there might mean something to rational leaders, but, we are dealing with Vova. There has never been a moment that one could conclude he was rational.

Now, that could be because the US is being asked to do this; or

because the US felt it had to; or

because NATO could not agree on an action; or

because NATO countries did not feel they could openly sanction these actions.

1. Hmmm, has there ever been a documented example where the USA was asked to deploy all alone ?

2. This one I think is the correct answer

3. True

4. Dead on the money

In any case, it is interesting that these multiple bi-lateral agreements with Baltic countries (including Estonia, I blame you for that) are happening.

We made a foolish decision years ago and tied all three countries together with membership rights. At that point, only Estonia was ready. The State Partnership Programs were designed around funding and agreements. Yes, I was heavily involved back then, but my recommendations fell on deaf ears.

Regards, Stan