Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

As you like but the truth is that the US has never been a physical threat to its neighbors or anyone near on the scale as Germany and Russia were and Russia still is.

The Russian problem - to be truthful- was the result of leftist/communist inspired support of the Soviets from within the Roosevelt administration at the time. It took the US under Truman too long to counter Soviet influence... the rest is history.

If one studies the Russian mentality one will realize that it will take a nuclear deterrent - that will be used in time of need - to put the Russians back in their cage... and out of the non-Russian states that currently fall within the Russian Federation.

The Russians - correctly - are banking on the fact that neither the US nor any in Europe are prepared to act decisively to counter their expansionism.


JMA---you are as correct as ever and many commenters in this thread and on the other threads have truly failed to understand the Soviet expansionism of Putin's Russia.

I remember only a couple of days before the elections the West ie EU/NATO/US indicated they would pull the trigger on harder sanctions if Putin interfered with the election---well he did and but was done-nothing because he uttered a few moderate comments and pesto all was well in the West.

If one fully understands the new Russian doctrine of New Generation Warfare which is really a national level UW strategy tied to irregular warfare which JMA fully understands supporting a political war again something JMA fully understands then one will recognize with this article from today backed up by the video link on the cell phone photos from a dead Chechen fighter and kaur's recent link to 22 May events that the "war" is now over in the Donbas region.

Would not call the dead Chechen a "weekend warrior" or better the new term "war tourist"---he is plain and simple a paramilitary full time member of a Russian "radical nationalist" irregular fighting group whose leader is a fanatical supporter of Putin and who has close ties to the FSB/GRU.

AND what is the response from the West with the "none meddling" by Russia in both the election and now in the support for Chechens inside Donbas?

Nothing is the answer.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russians-invade-donetsk-350001.html

Still curious that mirhond who is quick to respond to comments failed to respond to the dead Chechen's cell photos especially the logo of his Chechen unit. Check the logo of his Chechen unit, check the quality of the Russian plated 4X4s in the garage and quality of arms and equipment-and tell me he is a "weekend warrior".

http://obozrevatel.com/crime/58036-chechenskij-spetsnaz-mvd-rossii-voyuet-na-storone-dnr--foto-i-video.htm

If mirhond would honestly answer directed questions to himself which he never does but why would he---would enjoy seeing his definition of "Russian fascism".

Better yet---mirhond here is an easy to read English article concerning "Russian fascism"--do you agree with it or disagree with it---maybe you could simply answer in a yes or no fashion as you definitely will not respond to the article--even to a yes or no question.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-fascism-lite/427504.html

mirhond---here is another easy to read English article on Russian "fascism".

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/04/19/is-russia-fascist/

[JMA]

Carl, with a little time we will learn exactly what happened in the run up to the Russian invasion of Crimea and subsequently. But I remember a few years ago when I criticized the German logic - as espoused and defended by Fuchs - that German dependence on gas imports from Russia did not produce a vulnerability as the Russians were as dependent on the income from the sale of the gas as the Germans were on the gas itself. Boy was he (and the Germans) wrong. it is this sort of strategic incompetence by Germany that has saved the world from a German empire on a scale of the old British one. In the case of the Germans their limitation remains the predominant national characteristic of arrogance while the Brits were defeated in terms of their empire by a knife in their back by their ally the US.

I personally place no great store in the ability of 'business' to act to the detriment of their commercial greed. Again will probably learn later what the real reasons were for these actions which are likely to be based on commercial considerations.

Putin is certainly not the smartest guy in the room but he has achieved a well timed victory over a largely 'burnt out' US and a militarily impotent Western Europe (in terms of the annexation of Crimea which it appears he has got away with). However, in so doing he has destroyed any goodwill there may have been among nations that were once under the jack-boot of the Soviets.

One of my earlier comments was for the US to make it known that they would seriously consider supplying tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine as a deterrent to further Russian expansionism and to provide a position of strength for Ukraine to negotiate a full and total withdrawal of Russia from Crimea. Now that Ukraine has a democratically elected government this offer should now be made.


I wonder about this. Western govs did fail but maybe not the West. I read an article that argues western business interests, privately directed, stopping doing business and pulling or threatening to pull out of Russia had a very great effect. Those that did did so without direction because after what Putin has done recently the uncertainty of doing business in Russia may not be worth the return. Supposedly this gave Vlad and the boys great pause. Firn would probably know more about it.

Another thing that in my own uninformed opinion had an effect was the prospect of a really nasty insurgency getting going if regular Russian forces moved into Ukraine other than Crimea. It's one thing to take something easy, like Crimea, but it is another to face the prospect of an insurgency conducted by people who really know how to do it. In that sense the Ukrainians have taken care of themselves.

Then again the whole thing may start up again in a few months. Jamestown Foundation says the Russkis had to pull their forces back for the moment to demob conscripts and bring new ones in.

But ultimately your right, they'll nuke up again, or try to. Pakistan and North Korea have proven that if you have nukes and a bad attitude, you can get away with almost anything.

[davidbfpo]

Readers can judge for themselves the debate on this sometimes controversial thread and in the knowledge there is rarely agreement on what has happened nor what should happen now.

It is a fact that in eastern Ukraine there is a Russian-speaking minority, which sometimes can be a majority (earlier in this thread are maps showing this IIRC). Ukraine has a history of population movement as a result of wars and borders changing - something I expect they all know today. In the inter-war years and in 1945 there were several examples of voluntary and compulsory population exchanges.

At the moment there is no credible Ukrainian capability or will to engage in such a transfer. Note there are some reports from the Crimea that Tatars and others wish to exit.

I have asked JMA to be clearer as to what he is advocating (he later replied via PM).

[Balcacer]

Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
To much pro west or pro Russia.
Who has the truth?

[carl]

Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
To much pro west or pro Russia.
Who has the truth?

One thing I always thought was helpful when judging these things was this: where do people immigrate to and where do they emigrate from? Do the people from the West mostly move to Russia or do Russians mostly move to the West?

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not believe Russian is in fact involved directly in eastern and southern Ukraine---here is one of their drones which was shot down a couple of days ago in the Donbas region---believe near the airport fighting.

http://inforesist.org/ukrainian-security-services-the-drone-which-was-shot-down-in-the-zone-of-the-ato-was-produced-in-russia/?lang=en


The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects. A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions.


The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects.

A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions. The experts focused on how the UAVs determine the coordinates precisely and how they deliver information.

Eventually, the Defence Ministry chose several drones. They are the “Orlan” developed by the Special Technological Centre, the “Lastochka” of the “Zala” Company and the “Eleron” of the “Eniks” Company. However, the “Orlan” surpassed its competitors in carrying out missions close to combat conditions, says Roman Ivanov, head of the St. Petersburg-based Special Technological Centre.

“The use of advanced composite materials in engines and controlling systems has made it possible to achieve unique characteristics,” says Roman Ivanov. “This made it possible to make them ultra-light and consequently, to take sufficient fuel to fly about 15 hours continuously. The average speed of the UAV is 150 kilometers per hour, and the range is up to 600 kilometers,” Roman Ivanov said.

Russia’s Border Guard Service has shown keen interest in the UAV “Orlan” because it is irreplaceable in monitoring distant targets. The “Orlan” can carry up to ten kilograms of equipment and fly at heights of between 4.5 and 7.0 kilometers.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2010/11/12/33725547/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---did I miss you not responding to the dead Chechen fighters cell phone photos---check the Chechen BN logo.

Although based on his commanders' comments he has sent no one to fight in the Ukraine---although it seems like 34 dead Chechens were sent to Russia today and they are admitting there are another 30 or so dead Chechens not recovered near the airport so about 70 got killed.

But hey mirhond there are no Russians fighting and dying in eastern Ukraine are there---Putin has stated that it is not Russians who are fighting in the Ukraine so I am not sure just where these "war tourists" are coming from or do you know---maybe Right Sector soldiers looking and speaking like Chechens?

Check the shot down Russia drone link---and there is no Russian involvement in the Ukraine?

By the way Germany and Russia were once linked via their lines of royalty of their kings---you are not prosing that Putin is a king are you and Merkel a Queen?

[mirhond]

http://www.dw.de/%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9-%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BB-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D 0%BB-%D0%B2%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B-%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%B5%D 0%BD%D1%82-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE-%D0%B8-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8/a-17673335

Retired German general offered to send NATO-Russia peacekeepers to Eastern Ukraine. Sounds like good idea.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---there is an old European historical saying---wherever the Soviet Army decided to rest it never seems to want to leave---ask the Poles, the Baltics, the Hungarians, and the Czechs.

Even Putin as a KGB officer in Dresden recruited GDR citizens the Soviets felt were pro Soviet for a "coup" against Honecker in 1989/90 as they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate".

By placing the two Russian peacekeeping Bdes into eastern Ukraine which by the way were the first Russian troops into the Crimea is NOT a good idea---who says they will ever leave an that is what Putin really wants---- Russia troops in the "New Russia".

Why do you think the idea is good pray tell?

What is a good idea is to bring back to the Ukraine those troops who are currently on peacekeeping duty as they are use to using force to take care of road blocks don't you think?

[OUTLAW 09]

Fuchs---just a side comment---is not the eastern elections coupled with Chechen fighters now in eastern Ukraine and their stated desire to join Russia in reality "moving an entire population" from one existing state to another existing state---why is that then viewed as "ethnic cleansing".

There have been some serious thoughts given to say letting the Donbas "depart" the Ukraine---why the economic cost for both the EU and Ukraine in modernizing the industrial base and the infrastructure is massive.

Ask the Russians what the costs are now just for the Crimea just to keep it semi stable---even though the cost of food is now 50% more, fuel is only available for a max of two days at any given time, water is short and on and on---check the small comments coming out of the Crimea indicating buyers remorse is sitting in.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---there are no "Russians" in eastern Ukraine---come on guy at least agree Chechens have a Russian passport and at least agree the Vostok BN has worked together with your friends the FSB/GRU.

http://www.rferl.org/content/vostok-battalion-a-powerful-new-player-in-eastern-ukraine/25404785.html


http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-kadyrovits-have-been-buried-in-chechnya-already-32-people-are-missing-photo-18/?lang=en

[OUTLAW 09]

Fuchs---I could sum up JMAs comments by the following-- was not the recent statements by Merkel and Obama that if the Russians interfered in the elections and or physically got involved in the eastern Ukraine stage three sanctions would be started.

1. there was massive interference in the eastern and southern Ukraine to the election process---no response from the EU/US

2. the Vostok Chechen Bn which is inherently part of the Russian FSB/GRU, is Chechen which means Russian had a total of over 70 killed with the first 34 dead bodies going back to Russia today---still no response by Merkel/EU/US-----check the link below

http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-kadyrovits-have-been-buried-in-chechnya-already-32-people-are-missing-photo-18/?lang=en

3. the use of Russian serial numbered MANPADs and anti armor missiles, the use of the Russian AK105s only issued to Russian GRU/SF----and again still no response by Merkel/US/EU

4. the Russian Border Guard Service is "allowing" a steady flow of Russian irregulars and weapons enter into the Ukraine almost daily---STILL no response from Merkel/Obama and company---check this link

http://inforesist.org/80-militants-are-storming-the-border-service-department-deakovo-ato-sent-aviation/?lang=en

After all of these "none responses" after stating there would be responses leds one to believe WHAT?

No response will ever be coming and it was all "talk".

After all can Merkel in fact jump over her FDJ/SED/Russian speaking past to deal with a former "Communist KGB COL" who was based in Dresden and handled the recruitment of agents in the West and who had recruited a number of "GDR citizens who were proSoviet" for a possible KGB GDR coup because they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate" in 1989/90. Even Honecker and Mielke mistrusted Putin and the Dresden KGB center.

Notice she has been extremely quiet since the 25th.

[Steve Blair]

Since folks seem to be making some less than optimal decisions here, I'm closing this thread for the time being. We will reopen it once we feel there's been enough time for folks to cool down. I'm doing this in preference to handing out infractions, but that's my individual choice. For now.

[davidbfpo]

After a review by the Moderators this thread has been unlocked to enable SWC members to return to the discussion on this continuing crisis.

This thread has had to be locked before, with disciplinary action taken when SWC rules were breached several times and was locked a few days ago to enable a cooling down period. A number of posts have - again - been deleted and others edited to remove references to the breaches.

As Kaur has stated (on the Info Ops thread) and is cited now (in part):
Moderators, I don't understand why you closed the "Ukraine" thread. There is going on war that should be covered by this site. Am I wrong?

The Moderators repeat we are here to ensure SWC continues to be a useful place for members and readers. The RoE are clear. We are a "broad church" of opinions and viewpoints.

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPNyfruTJEw#t=104

Separatists from Lugansk seized a border guard outpost. Good move to secure supply line from Russia.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/03/world/europe/ukraine-luhansk-building-attack/index.html?iref=allsearch

Airstrike kills 8 civilians in Lugansk. Mundane stuff of the civil wars, but I'am amazed that even CNN admit it.

[kaur]

Ukraine admits that there are serious problems controlling borders.


Meanwhile, the situation along Ukraine's border with Russia appeared to be increasingly deteriorating on Thursday. The State Border Service said it had shut down all of its bases in the Luhansk region that weren't on the border because they had become increasingly cut off by separatists who had laid siege to several of them.

Ukraine has repeatedly accused Russia of allowing fighters and arms to filter across the border to join the separatists in the east, an allegation Russia has denied.

The border service closed three crossings in Luhansk entirely early on Thursday after they came under heavy fire. The service said it had requested that the government in Kiev consider closing several more checkpoints.

"It is now extremely difficult to control the state border in some areas," the service said in a statement. "Border guards continue to perform their duties, but the real problem is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard and local law-enforcement agencies, which leaves the rear approaches to the state border undefended."

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russian-prime-minister-medvedev-says-thousands-crossing-border-to-flee-ukraine-1401971825


Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine's east have conducted a string of successful attacks on checkpoints in recent days, forcing Ukraine border guards to abandon a 130-kilometer stretch of its border with Russia, former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yury Lutsenko said Thursday on his Facebook page.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/501647.html

One nice article was published this Monday by Russian MP Ponomaryov. He wrote also about Russian hand in Ukraine.


Hand of Moscow

Actually, there are a few Russians - according to the "Commander of the forces of DNR" Strelok/Girkin (FSB anti-terrorist officer himself), no more than 10%. Their role is very important. According to the people I trust, FSB was present in Slovyansk. I have not personally seen no currently serving GRU officer, but many militias have service experience there and went through Afghan and Chechnya. According to my sources, military advisers from Russia in the first month of the conflict were regularly seen in Kramatorsk and Artem - where they had communication centre, where they coordinated the action Strelok/Girkin groups. The absolute majority of the forces of protest - that local people with drive, which, in fact, now and killed by bullets Ukrainian Army and National Guard.

http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/83081

Russian politician asks question from FSB.


“Dozens of killed in Ukraine men were transferred back to Chechnya and Kadyrov still claims that they are volunteers and he has NO relation to them. Volunteers, you say? Those who on the 27th of May broke through Ukrainian-Russian border whilst not facing any resistance from the Russian border guards. So, I address the FSB and RIC (Russian Investigative Committee – ed.) where are the opened criminal cases on this fact? If there are no cases, then these are Kadyrov’s Special Forces and servicemen of the MIA of Chechnya. If there are cases then why Bastrikin and Bortnikov (heads of the RIC and FSB respectively – ed.) are quiet,” – wrote Nemtsov.

http://inforesist.org/nemtsov-asked-the-russian-fsb-to-explain-presence-of-kadyrovs-men-in-donbas/?lang=en

Considering above it is funny to read this EU COM raport about common steps for visa free regime between EU-RU.

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-is-new/news/news/docs/20131218_commission_report_on_the_implementation_b y_russia_of_the_common_steps_for_visa_free_regime_ en.pdf

[kaur]

Last night battle on the Ukraine-RF border. Ukrainians managed to stop this small group.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1320479.html

[Firn]

So after the non-Russian Russian soldiers invading Crimea we had the non-existing Russians in the East, followed by just-Russian 'volunteers' and now only a 'few' Russian FSB and kind controlling and training the partly terroristic speratists. :wry:

Great doc find about the visa regime, kaur. Comedy gold...

[mirhond]

http://economics.unian.net/transport/926064-ukraina-mojet-zakryit-morportyi-v-anneksirovannom-rossiey-kryimu.html

Oh my gawds, Ukrainian administration is going to close Crimean ports! We are busted! Or may be it's just a side of a bureaucratic reality we live in?


Great doc find about the visa regime, kaur. Comedy gold...

@Firn

Read carefully the title of the cited doc.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Brussels, 18.12.2013
COM(2013) 923 final

someone here lost the sense of time ;)

[kaur]

Russians tried to explain to COM that they control their border very well, when the report was prepared. Now it seems that they can't. Or they can? Don't want? Why Russians tried to prove that their border guarding system is very good condition?


MOSCOW, December 6 (RIA Novosti) 2013 – Russia is pushing for a visa-free travel deal to be inked with the European Union as soon as January, but the Western bloc has yet to signal willingness to finalize any agreements and the project may be pushed back another year, a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official said Friday.


Moscow has made visa-free travel with the EU a foreign-policy priority. However, resistance within the EU towards further visa liberalization remains, due to fears that it could lead to a rise in illegal immigration and crime.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20131207/185311112/Russia-Pushing-for-EU-Visa-Free-Travel-Deal-in-January.html

[OUTLAW 09]

At least Russian criminals know what to steal in order to drive back to Russia.

Seems that Russians cannot afford to purchase such vehicles since the economy has flat lined.

"A convoy of cars, which were taken by gunmen of Gorlovka’s garrison of the Donbas People’s Militia from a businessman in Artemivsk Volodimir Ivankov, was noticed between Hartsyzsk and Ilovajsk.

According to source of Gorlovka.ua, who has personally seen a convoy of Porsche, Ferrari, Maybach, Bentley, Rolls Royce Phantom, Mercedes Brabus on the road, they are most likely trying to get out from Ukraine to Russia."

[davidbfpo]

An interesting report on matters in the Donetsk region, especially the looting going on. It is unclear whether the author is Russian or Ukrainian.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/ilya-vasyunin/battle-for-donetsk

He ends, rather optimistically:
The best solution for Kyiv would be to give maximum autonomy to Donetsk, and, with the support of pro-Ukrainian citizens of Donbas, gradually try to replace the ‘republic’s’ leadership with their supporters. This will take time, but if the battle for Donetsk escalates into civil war, the secession of south-east Ukraine from the rest of the country could become a very real possibility.

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin and company have repeatedly stated that the protection of the Russian language was critical to them and that the "junta" had eliminated the "protection" of the Russian language in south-east Ukraine---below indicates that these statements have been from the very beginning an outright lie published over and over to the ethnic Ukrainians in the south-east as part and parcel of the Russian infowar.

Stopfake.org, a goup of Ukrainian journalists and activists that exposes the disinformation coming from Russia and pro-Russian goups concerning events in Ukraine, has posted a scan from a new Russian history textbook. The lesson on the Ukraine crisis and the annexation of Crimea asserts erroneously that one of the post-Viktor Yanukovych government's "first decisions was the abolishment of the Russian language's status and the prohibition of its use on a par with Ukrainian."

In fact, the Supreme Council of Ukraine did vote in February to end the special status of the Russian language in Ukraine, but Supreme Council Chairman Oleksandr Turchynov refused to sign the measure and it never had legal force.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference the Russian MANPADs that were used yesterday to down a AN-26 over Donetsk.

Seems that is was only recently issued to the Russian Airborne Division. Definitely not in the Ukrainian inventory.

So the question begs to be asked---if the Russian irregulars did not bring it with them are there in fact active duty Russian airborne types inside the Ukraine?

"The plane AN-26, which was downed on the 6th of June above Slovyansk in Donetsk region was shot at from a Russian antiaircraft missile systems 9K333 “Verba”. The Head of the Centre for Military-Political Studies, the leader of the group “Information resistance” Dmitry Tymchuk wrote about this on his Facebook page.

“The plane AN-26, which was downed yesterday by Slovyansk terrorists was shot at from the newest Russian antiaircraft missile systems 9K333 “Verba”. The plane was struck at the height of 4050 m by a 9M336 missile fired from the above MANPADS. Currently the rocket fragments are studied by Ukrainian experts,” - wrote Tymchuk.

According to him, this MANPADS has only been released to units of the Russian Army at the end of May this year.

“At the beginning of June the first samples arrived in antiaircraft units of 98th Regiment of Airborne Division (Ivanivskiy region). There is no such MANPADS in other departments and units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation yet. MANPADS 9K333 “Verba” is not supplied on export,” – added Tymchuk.

As we reported earlier, three members of the crew died during the crash, three survived, two are missing."

[OUTLAW 09]

So much for the reported media statements that indicated Putin "told" the FSB and the Russian Border Security Service to tighten up the Ukrainian/Russian border.

More armored vehicles and KAMAZ trucks broken through again today.

So did the media get the story wrong or did in fact Putin actually not say anything to anyone.

http://inforesist.org/another-column-of-russian-armoured-vehicles-broke-through-ukrainian-border/?lang=en

[davidbfpo]

I assumed the OSCE mission was still in place, but only today was a report Tweeted. Note the observers report from across the Ukraine:http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/119606

[mirhond]

An interesting report on matters in the Donetsk region, especially the looting going on. It is unclear whether the author is Russian or Ukrainian.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/ilya-vasyunin/battle-for-donetsk

He ends, rather optimistically:

He uses Kyiv instead of Kiev, ergo, he is Ukrainian

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems the Ukrainian SBU has done some photo analysis on the Russian social media sites and match a killed Russian soldier to his own social media site.

Warning---graphic photos.

It was interesting that immediately after the heavy Donetsk airport fighti9ng 32 dead bodies were sent immediately to Russian and another over 30 were not recovered from the airport fighting. All were Russian citizens and it is thought the remaining killed and un recovered were also Russian citizens.

This individual seemed to be Russian SF recruited by the FSB.

http://inforesist.org/a-russian-special-forces-commando-died-in-donetsk-photo-18/?lang=en

[OUTLAW 09]

While this might be Ukrainian infowar--- this site has been accurate lately on the "rumor control" side.

Russian government paying the families of dead Chechen fighters killed in eastern Ukraine ----85K USD.

http://inforesist.org/russia-pays-85000-dollars-for-the-death-of-every-chechen-mercenary/?lang=en

[Ray]

It seems the Ukrainian SBU has done some photo analysis on the Russian social media sites and match a killed Russian soldier to his own social media site.

Warning---graphic photos.

It was interesting that immediately after the heavy Donetsk airport fighti9ng 32 dead bodies were sent immediately to Russian and another over 30 were not recovered from the airport fighting. All were Russian citizens and it is thought the remaining killed and un recovered were also Russian citizens.

This individual seemed to be Russian SF recruited by the FSB.

http://inforesist.org/a-russian-special-forces-commando-died-in-donetsk-photo-18/?lang=en

We, out here in India, are a bit away from the action.

This post suggest that all the chaos is by Russians who have come into Ukraine.

Does it mean that the East Ukrainians are not involved and it is all a Russian action and no more?

Why are the East Ukrainians not objecting to the Russian intervention?

[OUTLAW 09]

We, out here in India, are a bit away from the action.

This post suggest that all the chaos is by Russians who have come into Ukraine.

Does it mean that the East Ukrainians are not involved and it is all a Russian action and no more?

Why are the East Ukrainians not objecting to the Russian intervention?

This is a good question---if one looks at the initial separatist movement which then Russia declared to be "federalistists" it was a mixture of local criminals, former SBU security officers and local police with a few local adventurists.

They were the ones that took over the various admin buildings and declared themselves mayors and chiefs of the new republics and were the ones that called for the new elections.

Then shortly after their "elections" one started to see "war tourists", Chechens, Cossacks, Russian citizens with military and or AFG experience crossing into the Ukraine on Russian military green KAMAZ trucks and APCs.

A key battle was the Donetsk airport which was led by the Chechen BN who suffered badly which this individual was one which seems to indicate that the individual was in fact active duty Russian SF/FSB.

One needs to understand the eight phases of the new Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare which is a UW strategy in support of their political war with the Ukraine.

The following article in Foreign Policy is the first actual mention by an US intelligence official that what now is going on in eastern Ukraine is in fact UW.

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/06/05/the_pentagon_s_top_intelligence_official_sees_russ ian_revanchism_as_a_major_threat

If one checks the irregular attacks against the Ukrainian military over the last five days and the use of the new Russian MANPADs they look, taste, feel like true irregular/guerilla warfare attacks ie targeted killings, attacks against critical infrastructure, sabotage, mortar attacks against civilians to give the image that the Ukrainian army is firing on civilians and the list could go on.

In the ethnic Russian population that initially was demonstrating for annexation it has started to have buyers remorse---there was suppose to be a big music festival titled "Remove the Fascists" ---approximately 50 people showed up.

[mirhond]

While this might be Ukrainian infowar--- this site has been accurate lately on the "rumor control" side.

http://inforesist.org/russia-pays-85000-dollars-for-the-death-of-every-chechen-mercenary/?lang=en

copy-paste from the link:

According to the information website kavkazcenter.com a new shipment of “Load 200″ (body bags – ed.) has arrived to Russia.

Well, that explains everything. This data is as reliable as taliban.com data on american losses in Afghanistan:rolleyes:


We, out here in India, are a bit away from the action.
This post suggest that all the chaos is by Russians who have come into Ukraine.
Does it mean that the East Ukrainians are not involved and it is all a Russian action and no more?
Why are the East Ukrainians not objecting to the Russian intervention?

Would you listen the other side of the conflict(e.g. South-Eastern separatists), or you'll blindly buy everything that american ministry of truth and its advocate Outlaw sell you?
Actually, not everything he posts here is outright lie, sometimes he is generally true, for example he is right about apathy of local population, what he and many ohers fail to mention is that the minority of die-hard separatists are very active and highly motivated to resist the central government for real and fictional reasons, and they are able to win or coherse support of the locals. Some informants say that separatists militia's core troops are made of retired paratroopers and other war dogs. Renowned airborne general Markelov, commander of the Soviet airborne troops, who was born and worked in Dnepropetrovsk, is revered there as local saint.

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UofIo0vvoNk

Interview with Strelkov.
Resume: his view into future is rather grim, he fully understands that militia can't win against regulars, however shambling and cowardly they are, without military aid from Russia, even provided with wide support from population.

[OUTLAW 09]

copy-paste from the link:


Well, that explains everything. This data is as reliable as taliban.com data on american losses in Afghanistan:rolleyes:



Would you listen the other side of the conflict(e.g. South-Eastern separatists), or you'll blindly buy everything that american ministry of truth and its advocate Outlaw sell you?
Actually, not everything he posts here is outright lie, sometimes he is generally true, for example he is right about apathy of local population, what he and many ohers fail to mention is that the minority of die-hard separatists are very active and highly motivated to resist the central government for real and fictional reasons, and they are able to win or coherse support of the locals. Some informants say that separatists militia's core troops are made of retired paratroopers and other war dogs. Renowned airborne general Markelov, commander of the Soviet airborne troops, who was born and worked in Dnepropetrovsk, is revered there as local saint.

mirhond---this is why you blog for the Russian FSB---in fact the initial "separatists" were unemployed, criminals, bribed and paid off police or FSB recruited SBU--- who "saw" an opportunity to be just like the "rich oligarchs" and have power like the "Kiev politicians" and to have a press conferences like the "Kiev politicians". Remember mirhond a large number of the ethnic Russian police in the East/South were as corrupt as those in the West-nationalists they were never.

Small people with big heads that make them dangerous to both themselves as well as the local population. OR was the ability to becoming a "separatist" giving them the right to steal cars, plunder shops, and take extortion monies or kidnap for money from the local ethnic Russian and Ukrainian populations?---man what great "revolutionaries" they are --they would make Mao, Lenin, and Che proud.

So are you telling me that really the DRP "separatists" are actually what "hidden capitalists"?

The Donetsk Regions Party which is now in charge was virtually unknown inside the Donbas and pulled very little to no electoral votes in the last six or seven years and then "magically" they take over the Donbass region as what this great "political machine" of the oppressed ethnic Russian population.

BUT wait wasn't this the same "oppressed ethnic Russian speaking population" that Russian claims the Ukrainian Nazi junta "took" away they language rights?---BUT again wait---the ethnic Russian population was not told that the Russian language law that so "enraged Mosow" which Moscow "claimed" was passed ---was actually never signed into law thus was never a law even under the older Ukrainian constitution---SMALL overlooked detail in the great propaganda machine of Russia, Putin and yourself..

Right now the DPR "separatists" or as Moscow calls them "federalists" are like the Elvis Presley foreign policy;
As former Army Sergeant Elvis Presley once said: “We’re caught in a trap. I can’t walk out, because I love you too much baby.” The separatists love the "ornaments of power" and all the "fun" that goes with it---BUT has anyone seen or heard Putin say he is going to send in the Russian army---not a word.

Actually as far as I can tell from the Russian media---there has not been a single report in any Russian media as to what the four points dictated by the G7 that Putin has to fulfill in order to avoid sectorial sanctions in four weeks;
1. met with the new Ukrainian President---check he did---bestows quasi political recognition
2. recognition of the Ukrainian election---check he did that by sending the Russian Ambassador---although a "weak move"
3. close the Russian borders to "Russian war tourists" and weapons---check---at least he publicly announced it---reality will tell on the ground in the coming days
4. tell the "separatists" to lay down their arms and leave the admin buildings---NOT done

BY the way you had no comment to the killed Russian SF individual complete with his social media page and his "death" photo---also reported by the "Taliban.com"---so I take it you accepted the info on the dead Russian SF member to be true?

MAYBE with your connections you could point us to an actual Russian media announcement to the Russian people the above G7 listed four points that Putin has to fulfill?

BY the way it was the same "Taliban.com" that provided the death photos of all the 32 previously shipped dead Russian citizens and identified a number of them also from their social media sites and it was the "Taliban.com" that clearly identified eight of them as Russian passport carrying Chechens.

Thus if it was true then "just maybe" the "Taliban.com" has sources you know nothing about---but then you work for the FSB so you know "everything." So since you "know" everything just be more specific on who is and is not a Russian fighting in the Ukraine---maybe carrying a Russian passport might be a way of identifying those fighters as "war tourists". BUT then again the "Taliban.com" is already doing that.

So actually mirhond you contribute nothing to the discussion that the "Taliban.com" has or is reporting on it's own---at least they are far more accurate than your comments.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---thought you would like this propaganda as reported by RIA and we all know how "accurately "RIA "reports"

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140609/190435205/Shelling-Ukraines-Slaviansk-Causes-Serious-Destruction-Leads-to.html

Then we have the "Taliban.com" reporting of the same fighting.

http://inforesist.org/seleznev-militants-are-chaotically-shooting-in-slovyansk/?lang=en

mirhond ---here is a good learning podcast in order to expand your knowledge of Russian gangs and Russian ultra nationalists in the Crimea and Donbas. But again you already knew all of this from your employers.

http://www.rferl.org/content/podcast-the-gangs-of-crimea-and-donbas/25413092.html

By the way mirhond---remember the "bearded" Cossack you made "fun" about here---based on the "Taliban.com" reporting it seems he has changed irregular units---probably because the Cossacks he was with that were fighting at the Donetsk airport had massive losses---reported at over 60 killed so that unit was virtually "wiped out".

You will "recognize" his beard again. Notice this irregular unit is far better equipped and has a unified uniform---they are a mix of Russian "war tourists". Have seen nothing reported by the Russian media on this type of "ethnic ProRussian separatist group"- have you?

So again the "Taliban.com" seems to be getting far better news coverage than the average Russian media do you not think?

http://inforesist.org/ukrainian-separatists-told-about-connections-with-militants-of-the-russian-federation/?lang=en

[mirhond]

So are you telling me that really the DRP "separatists" are actually what "hidden capitalists"?

You are talking to imaginary people.


Actually as far as I can tell from the Russian media

You can't tell anything from Russian media because you failed to prove that you read Russian

[davidbfpo]

SWC is a broad church of viewpoints, who engage in dialogue / debate here. I think some of the recent posts overlook this.

Regular posters here all have a passion for events in the Ukraine, please tread carefully and stay within the SWC RoE.

[OUTLAW 09]

You are talking to imaginary people.

mirhond---did you yourself ever notice that when directly talked to you seem to either ignore the conversation, or you ignore the comments , or you ignore the video/article links. Actually you ignore anything that does not fit your thinking.

Did you also notice that while attacking me you never did respond to the article link ---by your own comments you defined it "Taliban.com" ---concerning the dead Russian Special Forces soldier recruited and sent to the Ukraine by the FSB?

So just maybe the "Taliban.com" somehow placed his photo into the Russian social media space, maybe they then "created" this "story" that he says himself he was Russian SF. Maybe the dead man's photo was not his own photo. Maybe the body shipped across to Russia and escorted by Russian journalists was not a Russian.

So was he or was he not a dead Russian Special Forces soldier killed at the Donetsk airport fighting in a Cossack irregular fighting group that suffered loses exceeding over 100 that day?

If in fact he was a Russian Special Forces soldier just what was he then doing in Donetsk when Putin and the Russian Foreign Minister have repeatedly stated over the last three weeks (at least 21 times from my media count) there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine?

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---it is interesting you brought up the concept of who makes up the early "separatists" in both the DPR and LPR.

Remember I mentioned back to you ---criminals and corrupt police makeup the majority prior to the arrival of "irregular war tourists from Russia".

This came out of the Donetsk today concerning "what happens" when your car is stolen in Donetsk---stolen by criminals and corrupt police who by the way dealing with an equally corrupted DPR/LPR administraion.

Have noticed Russian TV failed to carry anything about these ongoing criminal activities--wonder why?

QUOTED From a Ukrainian Facebook account:

An entrepreneur from Donetsk Volodimir Bubley wrote on his Facebook page about mechanism of taking cars from people for the needs of the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and the LHR (Luhansk People’s Republic).

“I knew perfectly well that there is a strong connection between our law enforcement brethren and the criminality. After all, without one there would be no business for the other.

This is to some extent could be observed during the time of the Maidan, when the police corny guarded the thugs (titushkas) and were giving information about Maidan supporters to these thugs, so they could clear the city from dissent.

Although then they still had to hide these actions observing the appearance of legality and the rule of law. With the advent of the bandits, which were covered up and protected by the police, there is no need even to create the appearance that a police officer is running after an offender by definition.

No one hides anymore, the lawlessness is going on right at the police station .

Here is one of the schemes, which I personally encountered:

1. You car is stolen.

2. Some time later a call from the police station (in my case they made an appearance that they protect the public order in Kirov police station) with the information that the car is found and that you need to come over with all the vehicle documents and your passport to complete all the necessary forms.

3. Yet, on the arrival to the police station you are met by a police officer, who verifying all your car documents, takes you in the court yard and sits you in a car where two armed representatives of the DPR are already waiting for you. They inform you that according to a decision of the government of the DPR you car becomes the property of the LuhanDon (DPR or LPR – ed.)

4. Then you are taken into the Motorist Authority where boys in the uniform, who are oriented in the same way as the scum of the Kirov’s police station, are waiting for you with a paper to transfer the ownership of your vehicle to a specific citizen of Luhansk.

Of course, you will not see you car even within a gunshot.

Therefore, gentlemen, if any of you will get a call from our dear law enforcement agencies regarding your stolen car, do not hurry to rejoice and run headlong with documents for your property at the specified by the police department address.

Remember, there are only those there who defends the peace of mind of citizen of LuhanDon (DPR or LHR), and not citizens of Ukraine.

P.S. In my case the joke didn’t work out. In the sense that they continued to drive in a stolen car, and did not transfer it into their property,” – he wrote.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting video link on the "looting and pillaging" by the so called "separatists" ---went up today on the web.

Interesting insight in that ---was not originally the reason for the DLP/LPR forming "separatists" the "protection of the ethnic ProRussian population and their culture/language"? Not a how to get rich scheme.

Now with the end nearing it seems that it is "how can I get rich in a short time" and are they now protect the Russian language--as the last time I checked protecting languages does not make one rich.

So much for protecting one's culture and language.

Could be though ---maybe "looting" is a new way to fund a revolution since the Ukrainian government is not paying the separatists for their governing of Donetsk?

http://inforesist.org/video-dnr-militants-engaged-in-looting-and-pillaging/?lang=en

[Ray]

Could some one explain how the democratically elected President has to flee and why did that happen?

Who organised such a situation that a democratically elected President is forced to flee. Who forced such a situation?

In India and I take it that in western countries too, democracy is the lifeline of life.

So, what really happened and why?

The issue is very foggy out where I reside.

[carl]

Ray:

If you are talking about the guy who got kicked out a few months ago, he severely wore out his welcome and got the boot. He just stole too much and murdered too much. Only Putin would have him.

Democracy isn't a panacea. Sometimes the wrong guy gets elected and things have to be modified. The world surely regrets that Germans didn't modify things in 1933 and 1934.

[Ray]

Ray:

If you are talking about the guy who got kicked out a few months ago, he severely wore out his welcome and got the boot. He just stole too much and murdered too much. Only Putin would have him.

Democracy isn't a panacea. Sometimes the wrong guy gets elected and things have to be modified. The world surely regrets that Germans didn't modify things in 1933 and 1934.

Well, when one sings paeans about democracy, then one should follow the norms, no matter how bad it is.

Ballot and not the bullet or illegal chucking out is what we hear out here as the way to democracy.

Can't have double standards, can we?

If that was so, then it is - You're either with us, or against us.

Would that be democratic?

Look at the chaos that is going on in the name of democracy in Iraq and Syria.

The Taliban or AQ has taken hold.

is that what is democracy and justice all about?

I am a bystander and not involved. However, all these interventions are creating conditions that only add to the strife and with no solutions.

Let the ballots decide and not what one thinks is right and imposes.

if a wrong guy gets elected, just to bad. That is what is democracy all about - free choice, right? Or is democracy getting the 'right guy' elected? And who is the one to decide who is the 'right guy'. The outsiders who have their own agenda?

Churchill had said - "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." (from a House of Commons speech on Nov. 11, 1947)

[davidbfpo]

Cited in part:
Could some one explain how the democratically elected President has to flee and why did that happen?

Who organised such a situation that a democratically elected President is forced to flee. Who forced such a situation?

Ray,

Wikipedia has an extensive explanation and on a quick review should help you:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution There's always the BBC!

[Ray]

Cited in part:

Ray,

Wikipedia has an extensive explanation and on a quick review should help you:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution There's always the BBC!

I would not go with what Wiki has to say.

And never by the Bluff and Bluster Corporation.

Neither was I taken in by such esoteric compassion about spreading 'Freedom and Democracy- in Iraq or elsewhere, because the same compassion was not shown for the Rwanda Genocide where 500,000–1,000,000 Rwandans were killed in 100 days and which was worse than Iraq!

I would rather go by this forum since it allows various views and that I why I enjoy visiting it regularly and ask others to join.

As i have mentioned before that while I am not comfortable with the Russian actions in Crimea, I am also not comfortable with the manner in which the West has subverted democracy in Ukraine, more so when they shout from the rooftops about Freedom and Democracy.

One cannot have double standards. The West did the same when Hamas was elected in Palestine. One was aware that Hamas was no Cherub, but then democracy is paramount or so one feels.

Or see what is happening in Iraq today.

Take the issue of Kosovo. Now, it that was legal, then is Crimea also legal?

The whole thing is all about jockeying for strategic space cloaked with false sweet sounding political and compassionate rhetoric.

Neither side is clean as a whistle.

And yet all this is confusing; more so, when one is not involved and yet it can have international ramifications even in places not affected.

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS3sBIyhvnI

Ukrainian army shells Semenovka with phosphorous ammo (they say it looks like one, does anyone here can prove it?)

[kaur]

Tanks under Russian flag in Ukraine city Donetsk suburb Maeevka.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q977zU2J1ww

[carl]

Well, when one sings paeans about democracy, then one should follow the norms, no matter how bad it is.

...

if a wrong guy gets elected, just to bad. That is what is democracy all about - free choice, right? Or is democracy getting the 'right guy' elected? And who is the one to decide who is the 'right guy'. The outsiders who have their own agenda?

Easy to say from a place heir to the English tradition, not so easy to do in other parts of the world that are not heir to that tradition. That is why I mentioned Germany circa 1933 and 1934. Sometimes the 'one man, one vote, one time' boys get elected, then the need for modifying things on the fly arises.

[Ray]

Easy to say from a place heir to the English tradition, not so easy to do in other parts of the world that are not heir to that tradition. That is why I mentioned Germany circa 1933 and 1934. Sometimes the 'one man, one vote, one time' boys get elected, then the need for modifying things on the fly arises.

I don't wish to go OT, but then I am only going by US claims of Freedom and Democracy.

Democracy as I understand is the will of the people and that is indicated by the ballot box. The vote is applicable in all forms of democracy.

Others may not be heirs to the British traditions, but then they still do it by the ballot box.

And even democracies that claim to be purer than the snow of Mount Etna, are not free from aberrations either.

I rather not quote examples.

That said, I am most uncomfortable with the manner in which the leader of Ukraine was removed as also the manner in which Crimea joined Russia.

One was made to flee by muscle power, and the other by muscle power upheld the sanctity of the ballot.


Very odd and very perplexing indeed!

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS3sBIyhvnI

Ukrainian army shells Semenovka with phosphorous ammo (they say it looks like one, does anyone here can prove it?)

mirhond---man where do you get your info---that was a fake film released by the FSB---the video use of WP shells was actually a video of the Israeli's using these munitions in Gaza during their previous incursion.

Film released by the Israeli's was the exact film being reported by Russian media---get real man.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond--so did your President Putin "lie" to the world about giving orders to the FSB and the Border Security Forces to close the Russian border crossings to "foreign fighters" because you claim they are not Russian, and armored vehicles.

Guess Putin can no longer tell the truth from fiction but being a Czar I guess allows for lying.

So mirhond---still saying Russia is not an aggressor? Guess the dead Russian SF member with his death photo/social media data was not enough proof for you.

Tanks and Armored Vehicles crossing from Russia

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov says that columns with military equipment from the Russian Federation penetrate the border through captured checkpoints on the eastern border of Ukraine.

“Intelligence data and data of the corresponding observation: we see that in the last 3 days, despite claims of the Russian Federation that they welcome the peace process and that they instructed to strengthen the border control, in particular in the area of Diakovo, penetration of columns into Ukraine continues on checkpoints captured by terrorists,” – said Avakov at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday.

“We recorded the passage of convoys with APCs and cars, including armoured vehicles with artillery units, through these checkpoints,” – added the minister.

At the same time, Avakov confirmed reports, which appeared earlier in the media, that a passage of three tanks across the border took place on Thursday. After crossing the border, they were in Snejnoye, Donetsk region. “After that, two of them moved towards Gorlivka and were attacked by our Armed Forces,” – said the Head of the MIA.

The Minister noted that currently the fight is still going on. “I can not say more about the final result, I can only say that a part of the column is destroyed,” – said Avakov.

[OUTLAW 09]

irhond---is this news report the truth or a falsehood? The Russian Military Star media claims it is the "truth".

Will be more than happy to provide you the Star photos and the photos from Gaza so you can compare.

The ATO Centre once again has to conclude that the Russian media have resorted to a distortion of facts and use of videos dated many years ago, which have no relation to the on-going anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine. All this is done to manipulate the public opinion in their own interests. At the same time the authors of fakes are not bothered about concerns of peaceful people affected by such propaganda. The spokesman of the ATO Vladislav Seleznev wrote about this on his Facebook page.

Thus, today, June 12, 2014 the Russian media reported that the Ukrainian Security Forces allegedly used phosphorus bombs against civilians. To confirm this, the Russian Armed Forces Broadcasting Company “STAR” used footage shot in 2004 in the city of Fallujah, Iraq. In addition to that, the Russian media has recently reported on alleged facts of use of multiple launch rocket systems “Grad” by the Ukrainian troops against civilians.

This information is also untrue. There are no documented facts of the ATO Forces using systems “Grad”. All these speculations are more surprising given the fact that the Russian troops used positions “Grad” for attacks on cities of the Chechen Republic. As a result, tens of thousands of civilians were killed. These facts are well known to the world community, they are fixed at numerous photo and video materials.

It is worth recalling another case of falsification. On May 16 the channel Russia 1 used in a news release a video of two years ago on Kabardino-Balkaria counterterrorist operations, but these pictures were presented as an operation of the Ukrainian ATO Forces. This fraud is documented. (InfoResist reported on this earlier)

The ATO Centre considers the emergence of such materials as one of the links of the information war being waged against the Ukrainian mass media by the media of the Russian Federation.

The ATO Centre contends that the warfare that Russia applies in their own counter-terrorist operations, particularly against the civilian population of Chechnya, will never be applied on the territory of Ukraine.

We demand that the Russian media stops all the speculation on these topics and move to a civilized method of coverage of the events in the area of ​​the ATO.

News from the website of the TV company “Star”:

“The National Guard fired phosphorous bombs in Semenivka.

Ukrainian Army fired at village Semenivka, which is near Slovyansk. It was incendiary shelling. Charges exploded at a low altitude, and then divided into several burning parts. As a result, there were several fires in the village.”

[OUTLAW 09]

I don't wish to go OT, but then I am only going by US claims of Freedom and Democracy.

Democracy as I understand is the will of the people and that is indicated by the ballot box. The vote is applicable in all forms of democracy.

Others may not be heirs to the British traditions, but then they still do it by the ballot box.

And even democracies that claim to be purer than the snow of Mount Etna, are not free from aberrations either.

I rather not quote examples.

That said, I am most uncomfortable with the manner in which the leader of Ukraine was removed as also the manner in which Crimea joined Russia.

One was made to flee by muscle power, and the other by muscle power upheld the sanctity of the ballot.


Very odd and very perplexing indeed!

Ray---thought the former Ukrainian President fled his own country as he was afraid that he might be charged with massive corruption and stealing from the Ukrainian people and had as I understood it not even informed his own political Party of the Regions of his decision to flee ---taking based on some reports millions in USDs and kilos of gold bars in five KAMAZ trucks.

His own 27 year old son with no formal business education went inside three years from a nothing to a billionaire---ever wonder how?

Then when the Ukrainian Parliament got official news of his fleeing the country-- remember he contacted no one-- they the parliament then took a vote to depose him from his elected office using the correct paragraphs from the 2004 Ukrainian Constitution which had been reinstated as [art of the 21 Feb agreement. Russians call this a coup--- the West calls it democracy or the will of the people if you ask me.

Also of interest the vote was a super majority vote (0ver 350 for deposing) by the delegates there and it included Yes votes from every member of his own political party---the Party of Regions so his own party deposed him as well something the Russians seem to forget.

One must fully understand before one questions history.

[mirhond]

Tanks under Russian flag in Ukraine city Donetsk suburb Maeevka.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q977zU2J1ww

It's actually T-64 MBT, still on duty in Ukrainian army, I believe Ukrainian technical sergeants just sold this three ones to separatists:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T-yHL3B16aU

Interview with Bezler and Ukrainian IF colonel held captive by separatists - government does not give a fu(k to POWs and won't going to exchange them, some privates just personally handed to their parents.

upd.

Another video for ever rejecting Outlaw - incendiary shells falling at Semenovka . I believe next time I could provide you with civilians burned alive with white phosphor, may be it'll satiate your lust for gore.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=channel%3A5392e9f6-0000-2d40-9984-001a113caa24&feature=iv&src_vid=yLizHCJDB6c&v=V4zX8AzidOE

Witness says it were illuminating rounds used as incendiary.

[kaur]

mirhond, about this tank model and Ukraine in Russian.

http://censor.net.ua/news/289788/terroristam_perebrosheny_tanki_t64bv_podobnye_mode li_nahodyatsya_na_bazah_hraneniya_minoborony_rf_ty mchuk

[Ray]

Ray---thought the former Ukrainian President fled his own country as he was afraid that he might be charged with massive corruption and stealing from the Ukrainian people and had as I understood it not even informed his own political Party of the Regions of his decision to flee ---taking based on some reports millions in USDs and kilos of gold bars in five KAMAZ trucks.

His own 27 year old son with no formal business education went inside three years from a nothing to a billionaire---ever wonder how?

Then when the Ukrainian Parliament got official news of his fleeing the country-- remember he contacted no one-- they the parliament then took a vote to depose him from his elected office using the correct paragraphs from the 2004 Ukrainian Constitution which had been reinstated as [art of the 21 Feb agreement. Russians call this a coup--- the West calls it democracy or the will of the people if you ask me.

Also of interest the vote was a super majority vote (0ver 350 for deposing) by the delegates there and it included Yes votes from every member of his own political party---the Party of Regions so his own party deposed him as well something the Russians seem to forget.

One must fully understand before one questions history.

I am only interested in democratic principle since that is tomtomed by western nations as their Holy Grail.

And because that is what has sustained my country.

In this world corruption, nepotism, crony capitalism and all the evils of society happens everywhere. Some places, less and some places, more. No country is free from it and to feel that is not true, would be another arrogance of false superiority.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, every Govt was corrupt and they all stashed away their fortunes. The last one was no better.

The Ukrainian top man fled. Now, why did he flee? Who flees when there is no danger to his person? If he had such fortunes as you claim, it would be no problems to manipulate a verdict. If he fled even then, when all was peace and quiet, then he must be daft.

Therefore, that line of argument does not gel.

I am not partisan and I don't care which side wins. Lest one feels that in India we are pro Russia, then that would be totally incorrect, given the new political and strategic equations.

I am more interested in geostrategy. Please note, that in the modern context, to organise a revolt (for the want of a better word), it requires organisation, money and weapons. There is hardly any chance of it coming to one through some mystic magic. It requires support.

For example, Solidarity persisted solely as an underground organization, supported by the Catholic Church and the US. That is documented.

Kosovo did not happen out of the blue, or for that matter, the Colour Revolutions.

It is geostrategy that pressured the rise of such events.

Likewise, for one to believe that Ukraine and Crimea are the 'will of the people' alone, it too hard to believe. Both required assistance and both got, even if by rival sides.

If indeed and if the elections have to be fair, it requires an international (and that does not mean western or Russian predominance or sponsored 'neutrals') monitoring.

Further, if all in Ukraine was with the present Govt, then how come the East Ukrainians are in revolt? I would not be surprised if Russians are encouraging them, but then there sure is a sizeable population that finds the current Ukrainian disposition not to their liking.

So let there be genuine Freedom and Democracy.

Let there be the ballot which talks and that too with monitors from non pro Western and non pro Russian countries.

I daresay, I am too far removed from history, though I concede that history is written by the victor (as is the case of WW I and WW !!) by the colonial powers (as in the case of colonies of imperial powers) and by the inclinations of the one who is writing and the Govt that gives credence to such history!

History of this conflict will surely be different from the perspective of Russian historians and that from the perspective of the Western historians.

The question will be - who is right!

Take the case of China. It was a horrid repressive regime and one to be hated.

But then it became placid and pleasant once the West was allowed a free run.

All, is but perceptions and national interests!

That is why I steer clear of all this moral claptrap and instead look at logical reasoning in the realm of a level playing field as far as it is humanly feasible.

[kaur]

Ray:


In this world corruption, nepotism, crony capitalism and all the evils of society happens everywhere. Some places, less and some places, more. No country is free from it and to feel that is not true, would be another arrogance of false superiority.

Ray, shouldn't be the purpose to try to minimize those negative things in every society? Isn't this making societies better place to live? In 1991 Poland and Ukraine were at the same level in economical terms.


Poland and Ukraine had very similar starting points when the Soviet system disintegrated. In 1990, Poland’s per capita gross domestic product was $1,693, and Ukraine’s was $1,569. The derisive term polnische Wirtschaft signaled a state economy characterized by chronic shortages, hyperinflation, corruption and abysmal living standards.

Within less than a decade Poland become a star performer in the region. Now it’s also a star performer within the European Union — routinely posting growth figures that have outpaced older members of that club. In 2012, Poland’s per capita GDP of $12,820 was more than triple that of Ukraine’s $3,867. That laid the groundwork for a truly independent country that could chart its own course.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/05/23/polands-example-may-offer-ukraine-a-way-out/

Until November last year the president, who escaped to Russia, promised to his people to start the road that Poland took 1991. After several meetings and long hours of discussions with Putin, Yanukovich said no to this route. This is what happened on the Kiev streets

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/awesome-panoramic-video-photos-prove-it-really-was-a-march-of-a-million-video-photo-333287.html

Later things got worse and now we are here


In the shadow of the World Cup in Brazil and the new crisis in Iraq, the situation in Ukraine has become more serious. For the first time pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country have been supplied with heavy weapons. The latest reports say that separatists even shot down a Ukrainian military plane with at least 49 people on board in the early hours of Saturday (14.06.2014).


Alexander Golz says Russia wants maximum destablization of Ukraine
Moscow military analyst Alexander Golz also does not currently see a Russian invasion in eastern Ukraine. "The scale of events speaks against this," he told DW. "It looks more like a classic covert operation."
It would only be possible to speak of an "invasion" if not only individual military advisers or tanks, but entire units were used - as in Crimea. "Russia has abandoned the invasion plans and wants maximum destabilization of Ukraine " Golz said. The reason is the inadequate resources of the Russian army and the western threats of sanctions.

http://www.dw.de/russias-slow-invasion-of-ukraine/a-17706523

Half of the people wanted to make their society European like, second half wanted to join Putins pet project Eurasian union. Was this the moment of crisis of political system that couldn't solve the dilemma? Seems this way ...

[kaur]

NATO RELEASES IMAGERY: RAISES QUESTIONS ON RUSSIA’S ROLE IN PROVIDING TANKS TO UKRAINE
14 Jun 2014

http://aco.nato.int/statement-on-russian-main-battle-tanks.aspx

[Ray]

Ray, shouldn't be the purpose to try to minimize those negative things in every society? Isn't this making societies better place to live? In 1991 Poland and Ukraine were at the same level in economical terms.

Indeed that is so.

But then one cannot be Jesus to save the world.

There are many countries in Africa and Asia that requires to be 'saved'. But none care. Guess why? Geostrategic compulsions that drive the national interest of those who 'come to help' and nothing more.

I think that is what I call ‘moralising’. Honestly, I am not being obtuse, but why can we not speak upfront and instead cloak issues with moral high standing?

Freedom and Democracy – the war cry for Iraq - and whatever you say as the rationale for Ukraine - is actually pleasant and high morality smokescreen as a cover for the reality – geostrategic necessity - and that is about all. That was for Poland and so was it for Kosovo and so was it for the whole of East Europe.

And no way it affected me and so I am not partisan.

It is just the same for Russia in annexing Crimea – geostrategy.

Just one example from my part of the country.

India was plagued by foreign assisted terrorism. None cared and felt that it was bogus. When 9/11 hit the US, it became such a cause célèbre that it lead to GWOT and either you are with us or against us. Only the wearer knows where the shoe pinches.


Quote:
Poland and Ukraine had very similar starting points when the Soviet system disintegrated. In 1990, Poland’s per capita gross domestic product was $1,693, and Ukraine’s was $1,569. The derisive term polnische Wirtschaft signaled a state economy characterized by chronic shortages, hyperinflation, corruption and abysmal living standards.

Within less than a decade Poland become a star performer in the region. Now it’s also a star performer within the European Union — routinely posting growth figures that have outpaced older members of that club. In 2012, Poland’s per capita GDP of $12,820 was more than triple that of Ukraine’s $3,867. That laid the groundwork for a truly independent country that could chart its own course.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debat...ine-a-way-out/

That is all very fine.

Can you justify why such liberal compassion was and still is not being shown for Rwanda or other African countries who are in dire requirement for western compassion to bring all at par and economically vibrant as Poland to become stsr performers?


Until November last year the president, who escaped to Russia, promised to his people to start the road that Poland took 1991. After several meetings and long hours of discussions with Putin, Yanukovich said no to this route. This is what happened on the Kiev streets

Well, Obama promised many things and so it Cameron. How much have they delivered? If Yanukovivh after deliberation changed tack, then maybe he had some reasons to do so. Or the fact that he did it with Putin and not Obama is the reason for the ire of the West?

Whatever makes you feel that the West alone knows what is good for the world and the peoples? Take a look at what has happened in the Middle East and Afghanistan? The West wanted to superimpose their idea of life and governance, See the mess that lhe West has landed them in and it is not only going to affect the West, but the whole world.

As ganulv said every country is unique. Indeed it is. One has to apply one’s mind to that culture, custom, tradition, political thought of that country before applying one’s own ideals.


http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...to-333287.html

Later things got worse and now we are here

Quote:
In the shadow of the World Cup in Brazil and the new crisis in Iraq, the situation in Ukraine has become more serious. For the first time pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country have been supplied with heavy weapons. The latest reports say that separatists even shot down a Ukrainian military plane with at least 49 people on board in the early hours of Saturday (14.06.2014).
Quote:
Alexander Golz says Russia wants maximum destablization of Ukraine
Moscow military analyst Alexander Golz also does not currently see a Russian invasion in eastern Ukraine. "The scale of events speaks against this," he told DW. "It looks more like a classic covert operation."
It would only be possible to speak of an "invasion" if not only individual military advisers or tanks, but entire units were used - as in Crimea. "Russia has abandoned the invasion plans and wants maximum destabilization of Ukraine " Golz said. The reason is the inadequate resources of the Russian army and the western threats of sanctions.
http://www.dw.de/russias-slow-invasi...ine/a-17706523




Half of the people wanted to make their society European like, second half wanted to join Putins pet project Eurasian union. Was this the moment of crisis of political system that couldn't solve the dilemma? Seems this way ...

How is the European way the best?

Belarusians and Russians are considered the closest relatives of Ukrainians, while Rusyns are either considered another closely related group, or an ethnic subgroup of Ukrainians.

If that is true, then they have greater similarity with the Russian mindset than that of the Germans or the French and least of all of the stiff upper lip British!

Hence, hardly akin to the EU mindset.

Ever since Powell whipped out the photos in the UN to show that Saddam had WMD which we all believed as the Gospel being from the greatest country in the world - the US - and then it proved to be bogus, I don't believe all this 'despatches' from 'the horse's mouth'.

But I sure am open to logic.

[mirhond]

NATO RELEASES IMAGERY: RAISES QUESTIONS ON RUSSIA’S ROLE IN PROVIDING TANKS TO UKRAINE
14 Jun 2014

http://aco.nato.int/statement-on-russian-main-battle-tanks.aspx

I'd rather use Occam's razor and give 90% probability that separatists got tanks from tank base in Artemovsk, which is situated right between Donetsk and Lugansk. Locals say this base is heavily guarded, but, you know, there is no problem which can't be solved by case full-o-cash in Ukraine.

[mirhond]

2kaur

You could even enjoy satellite image of the base via googlemaps
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Artemivs%27k/@48.5967755,37.9784649,265m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x40dfe61bf724c5a7:0xa398e 255ecbfeec2

[OUTLAW 09]

I'd rather use Occam's razor and give 90% probability that separatists got tanks from tank base in Artemovsk, which is situated right between Donetsk and Lugansk. Locals say this base is heavily guarded, but, you know, there is no problem which can't be solved by case full-o-cash in Ukraine.

so mirhond the willy peet rounds being fired as you claim in the Ukraine video played by virtually all of the Russian news media and defended by yourself is not the same video of the Israeli 155mm artillery firing the WP rounds in the Gaza---come on mirhond fakes are fakes.

[OUTLAW 09]

It's actually T-64 MBT, still on duty in Ukrainian army, I believe Ukrainian technical sergeants just sold this three ones to separatists:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T-yHL3B16aU

Interview with Bezler and Ukrainian IF colonel held captive by separatists - government does not give a fu(k to POWs and won't going to exchange them, some privates just personally handed to their parents.

upd.

Another video for ever rejecting Outlaw - incendiary shells falling at Semenovka . I believe next time I could provide you with civilians burned alive with white phosphor, may be it'll satiate your lust for gore.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=channel%3A5392e9f6-0000-2d40-9984-001a113caa24&feature=iv&src_vid=yLizHCJDB6c&v=V4zX8AzidOE

Witness says it were illuminating rounds used as incendiary.

mirhond---did you by chance notice any Russian TV or Russian journalist and or actually yourself interview any Ukrainian citizens who claimed they were burnt with WP. Still waiting for those interviews

Did you also notice there is still no Ukrainian citizen who has come forward and claimed as well they were burnt.

come on man get real when a fake is a fake just admit it.

[OUTLAW 09]

I am only interested in democratic principle since that is tomtomed by western nations as their Holy Grail.

And because that is what has sustained my country.

In this world corruption, nepotism, crony capitalism and all the evils of society happens everywhere. Some places, less and some places, more. No country is free from it and to feel that is not true, would be another arrogance of false superiority.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, every Govt was corrupt and they all stashed away their fortunes. The last one was no better.

The Ukrainian top man fled. Now, why did he flee? Who flees when there is no danger to his person? If he had such fortunes as you claim, it would be no problems to manipulate a verdict. If he fled even then, when all was peace and quiet, then he must be daft.

Therefore, that line of argument does not gel.

I am not partisan and I don't care which side wins. Lest one feels that in India we are pro Russia, then that would be totally incorrect, given the new political and strategic equations.

I am more interested in geostrategy. Please note, that in the modern context, to organise a revolt (for the want of a better word), it requires organisation, money and weapons. There is hardly any chance of it coming to one through some mystic magic. It requires support.

For example, Solidarity persisted solely as an underground organization, supported by the Catholic Church and the US. That is documented.

Kosovo did not happen out of the blue, or for that matter, the Colour Revolutions.

It is geostrategy that pressured the rise of such events.

Likewise, for one to believe that Ukraine and Crimea are the 'will of the people' alone, it too hard to believe. Both required assistance and both got, even if by rival sides.

If indeed and if the elections have to be fair, it requires an international (and that does not mean western or Russian predominance or sponsored 'neutrals') monitoring.

Further, if all in Ukraine was with the present Govt, then how come the East Ukrainians are in revolt? I would not be surprised if Russians are encouraging them, but then there sure is a sizeable population that finds the current Ukrainian disposition not to their liking.

So let there be genuine Freedom and Democracy.

Let there be the ballot which talks and that too with monitors from non pro Western and non pro Russian countries.

I daresay, I am too far removed from history, though I concede that history is written by the victor (as is the case of WW I and WW !!) by the colonial powers (as in the case of colonies of imperial powers) and by the inclinations of the one who is writing and the Govt that gives credence to such history!

History of this conflict will surely be different from the perspective of Russian historians and that from the perspective of the Western historians.

The question will be - who is right!

Take the case of China. It was a horrid repressive regime and one to be hated.

But then it became placid and pleasant once the West was allowed a free run.

All, is but perceptions and national interests!

That is why I steer clear of all this moral claptrap and instead look at logical reasoning in the realm of a level playing field as far as it is humanly feasible.

Ray after reading this set of comments would you equate neo nationalism or better neo imperialism with your term geostrategy? Or better ethnic nationalism equates to geostrategy.

[kaur]

Ray, why you are mixing all those Africa, India, Asia, Afganistan, Ukraine etc things? Do you know what is EU Eastern patnership, AA/DCFTA and how it is working?

mirhond, if you are tring make jokes about NATO analysis with Google map images from x moment (i'm pretty convinced that this pic is at least 5 years old) lets play this game. Could you find what source was first that announced that ополчение got tanks. Then I'll say what I found.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---and there are no Russian T64s and BM21s in the Ukraine---the Russian T64s are those from the 2000 that Russia was to have destroyed under OCSE agreements. Strange how they show up in the Ukraine is it not?

From the German newspaper FAz being released tomorrow:

Um deutlich zu machen, dass es sich um einen russischen Panzer handelt, hat die Nato ihrem Material Fotos des Panzertyps T-64 hinzugefgt, den sowohl die russische als auch die ukrainische Armee benutzen. Der russische Panzer hat erkennbar ein anderes Tarnmuster und eine andere Panzerung als die ukrainische Version. Danach wre der Panzer in Sneschnoje russischer Herkunft. Es handelt sich um ein Modell, das die russischen Streitkrfte selbst schon ausgemustert haben, von denen aber noch gut 2000 vorhanden sein sollen.

Ein Offizier des Bndnisses legte dieser Zeitung dar, dass die Bilder folgenden Ablauf nahelegten: Zunchst habe Russland wie angekndigt tatschlich seine Truppenprsenz an der Grenze zur Ukraine abgebaut, wie der Abzug der gepanzerten Fahrzeuge auf den ersten Bildern aus Rostow zeigt. Danach tauchten aber Panzer auf dem Militrgelnde auf, die zum Weitertransport verladen wurden. Einen Tag spter habe die ukrainische Regierung berichtet, dass drei russische Panzer und mehrere gepanzerte Fahrzeuge die Grenze am bergang Dovzhansky berquert htten, der unter Kontrolle der Aufstndischen der selbsternannten Volksrepublik Luhansk steht. Die Bilder aus Makijiwka und Sneschnoje seien als Beleg dafr zu werten, dass die Panzer tatschlich die Grenze berschritten htten und in der Sdostukraine im Einsatz seien.

Nach Ansicht der Allianz ist das ein Vorgehen, wie es die russische Fhrung schon auf der Krim praktiziert hat. Denn die Panzer tragen keine Hoheitszeichen, so wie das auch bei den grnen Mnnchen auf der Krim der Fall war, die sich im Nachhinein als russische Einsatzkrfte erwiesen. Sie waren die Vorhut, mit der Moskau die Annexion der Halbinsel vorbereitete.

Ob es womglich noch weitere russische Panzer auf ukrainischem Gebiet geben knnte, teilte die Nato nicht mit. Der russische Truppenabzug von der Grenze, der mehrfach vom Kreml angekndigt und immer wieder verschoben worden war, scheint allerdings nicht vollstndig erfolgt zu sein. Der Groteil der vormals bis zu 40.000 Soldaten sei aus dem Gebiet in der Nhe zur Grenze abgezogen worden, heit es aus der Nato. Eine Einheit unter 1000 Mann sei aber zurckgelassen worden. Es gebe keine Anzeichen dafr, dass auch sie verlegt werden soll.

Auch das amerikanische Auenministerium wies auf die Bilder der Panzer hin. Die Russen werden sagen, dass die Panzer aus den ukrainischen Streitkrften stammen, aber es operieren keine ukrainischen Panzereinheiten in diesem Gebiet. Wir sind berzeugt davon, dass es sich um russische Panzer handelt, sagte eine Sprecherin. Sie beschuldigte Russland auerdem, Raketenwerfer nach Luhansk geliefert zu haben, eine der Hochburgen der Aufstndischen.

[Ray]

Ray after reading this set of comments would you equate neo nationalism or better neo imperialism with your term geostrategy? Or better ethnic nationalism equates to geostrategy.

Well, semantics does have a magical spell that deceives.

There was a time, post the era of imperialism and colonialism, the assertion of the Power Block to influence and control the Third World got dubbed as 'neo imperialism'. Be that as it may or not, whatever it was, it was spurred possibly not so much as imperialism, but as pursuing national interests in the realm of world political matrix i.e. strategy in context of the world political and other dynamics. To those affected, it was still taken as 'neo imperialism'.

Likewise, we hear today, of words like 'eco imperialism' or 'eco terrorism' whenever a nation is disadvantaged in economic terms by another in an unfair way (as per the one affected), but then it does not seem fair a term to the one who affects.

One man's food is another man's poison, so to say.

These are terms which are used to define what one wants to convey in a partisan manner to an audience that has similar views.

Being far away from the conflict zone and being from a country where it does not materially impinge, I observe as if in a 'neutral zone'.

Yet, it is most enlightening to learn of the various views exchanged here.

[Ray]

Ray, why you are mixing all those Africa, India, Asia, Afganistan, Ukraine etc things? Do you know what is EU Eastern patnership, AA/DCFTA and how it is working?

I am not mixing anything.

Yes I am aware of the Eastern European Partnership that came into being in 2009, between the EU, EU countries and the eastern European.

The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

That is laudable if observed bareboned.

However, if such a high moral stand is taken by the EU to spread such high moral values and uplift the Eastern European nations from their economic and other miseries, one cannot help but wonder as to why Turkey, which is a member of the NATO, is not bestowed the same laudable considerations and instead is kept out of the EU?

I might remind that Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe in 1949. It was also a founding member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961 and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973.

It remains a matter of interest that Turkey, unlike Morocco (which has also applied), has 3% of its territory in Europe. And yet, on the other hand, Cyprus, which is geographically located in Asia, joined the European Union in 2004.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons that are given to 'justify' Turkey's exclusion or the imbroglio, but then one wonders how come the ex communist nations of Eastern Europe fits the bill so smoothly as ducks take to water.

The underlining principle is National Interest camouflaged in high principled appealing expressions.

[kaur]

Ray:


The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values :) But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine–European_Union_relations

[Firn]

Ray:



After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values :) But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine–European_Union_relations

At the beginning of the crisis I worte that European Union had a big intrinsic pull factor by virtue of it's qualities. The countries who want to join are those who have to reach the EU targets and not the other way around.

Putins Russia is the flip-side of that coin. It is hardly attractive to neighbouring countries and needs to spend a lot of ressources in politicians, media, political capital and sometimes brute force to push them towards it's goals.

So it shouldn't be surprising that the EU and it's member states were so inactive and passive compared to Putin's active and aggressive meddling even before Maidan.

[Ray]

Ray:



After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values :) But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine–European_Union_relations

I would not be able to comment with any definite conclusions.

I presume it was felt to be a 'done thing' and so the EU was taking time to iron out the rough edges to its satisfaction.

However take hope from this and breathe easy:


Barroso reassures Moldova, Georgia ahead of EU pact signing
13/06/2014

European Commission President José Manuel Barroso urged Russia yesterday (12 June) not to stand in the way of Moldova and Georgia forging closer ties with Europe, despite the conflict caused by Ukraine's lurch towards the West.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/europes-east/barroso-reassures-moldova-georgia-ahead-eu-pact-signing-302782

[kaur]

Firn, can't disagree with you :)

Ray, how can you presume this?


Staunton, June 15 – In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is acting either as a failed state that cannot control the movement of heavy military equipment by independent groups across its borders or as a state sponsor of terrorism by such groups or an aggressor state that has invaded a neighboring sovereign state – or most likely as some combination of the three.

There are no other possibilities, however much the Putin regime seeks to confuse the situation and however much some Western governments want to accept Moscow’s obfuscation lest they be forced to make the hard choices required if they were to acknowledge this reality and the dangers it represents

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/06/window-on-eurasia-three-faces-of-putins.html

How Russian border guard (?) reacted to lone Ukrainian BMP border crossing. Take look at video ja gear. Polite green men?

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1683381.html

Moldova seems to be next.


Staunton, June 15 – At a secret meeting ten days ago, representatives of the Gagauz, Ukrainian and Bulgarian minorities of Moldova as well as leaders of opposition political parties signed an agreement to seek the federalization of Moldova now and the dismemberment of Moldova if Chisinau goes ahead with an EU accord.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/06/window-on-eurasia-moscow-mobilizing.html

[mirhond]

mirhond, if you are tring make jokes about NATO analysis with Google map images from x moment (i'm pretty convinced that this pic is at least 5 years old) lets play this game.
Could you find what source was first that announced that ополчение got tanks.
Then I'll say what I found.

1. Then ask Google how old are these images.
2. I'm not going to play games, I'am too old for that shиt ^_^
3. Youtube, as usual.
4. Well, if you want to punish me by withhelding some meaningful information - think about other users here, they are innocent and don't deserve punishment.

ps. You know, in the 90s it was possible to buy virtually anything from poorly guarded and falling apart military bases in Russia, the same situation still has place in Ukraine.

pps. Picture of Ukrainian punishers before they took their unlucky route to Donetsk, IL-76 behind is claimed to be that one which has been shot down three days ago.

http://politikus.ru/uploads/posts/2014-06/thumbs/1402743727_bqfduvmiqaa478l.jpg

[Ray]

Ray, how can you presume this?

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/06/window-on-eurasia-three-faces-of-putins.html

How Russian border guard (?) reacted to lone Ukrainian BMP border crossing. Take look at video ja gear. Polite green men?

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1683381.html

Moldova seems to be next.



http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/06/window-on-eurasia-moscow-mobilizing.html

No movement of the intensity that has been seen on both sides can be sustained without external assistance in some form of the other.

However, all this eastern expansion does not appear all that altruistic as the Eastern European Partnership goals appear to indicate.

It is to close to appear as the translation of what is unofficially called 'Wolfowitch Doctrine' in which it is states

Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.
http://www.rumormillnews.com/pix7/8.jpg

Actually nothing wrong in that.

The US and the West, as every other country, has to further their own national and strategic interest.

However, such proactive actions to preserve and further strategic goals, requires to be couched in moral high standing so that all forms of apprehensions around the world are assuaged.

[Ray]

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bert_s/13716268/299503/299503_original.gif

Ukrainian as a teaching language in school. Spreading across regions from 1991 to 2012.

That surely is the stepping stones to integration.

[OUTLAW 09]

I am not mixing anything.

Yes I am aware of the Eastern European Partnership that came into being in 2009, between the EU, EU countries and the eastern European.

The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

That is laudable if observed bareboned.

However, if such a high moral stand is taken by the EU to spread such high moral values and uplift the Eastern European nations from their economic and other miseries, one cannot help but wonder as to why Turkey, which is a member of the NATO, is not bestowed the same laudable considerations and instead is kept out of the EU?

I might remind that Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe in 1949. It was also a founding member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961 and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973.

It remains a matter of interest that Turkey, unlike Morocco (which has also applied), has 3% of its territory in Europe. And yet, on the other hand, Cyprus, which is geographically located in Asia, joined the European Union in 2004.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons that are given to 'justify' Turkey's exclusion or the imbroglio, but then one wonders how come the ex communist nations of Eastern Europe fits the bill so smoothly as ducks take to water.

The underlining principle is National Interest camouflaged in high principled appealing expressions.

Ray---Turkey was making good strides in matching the EU requirements that were being required---then Turkey stopped about the time the demonstrations started and the accusation of massive corruption against their current PM came up and for many young Turks viewing the EU as "modern" The MB effect has started--meaning a slow and steady "Islamization" of the country which is in the Turkish Constitution forbidden since Ataturk days.

This PM though wants to change the Constitution to favor Islam but cannot due to the EU demands thus he has been looking for ways to slow down Turkey joining the EU---not vice versa.

Living in a city in Germany that has the highest number of Turks outside Istanbul tends to give one a real sense of what is actually going on inside Turkey and that is not being revealed either by Turkish government leaning media or western press.

[OUTLAW 09]

These convoys movement towards Rostov are of interest since Russia has not announced any large scale maneuvers that involve the use of that major highway link between Moscow and Rostov.

But Moscow has announced wanting to send "humanitarian" aid just like the tanks. So maybe this is the "aid" hidden as a military convoy.

http://inforesist.org/en/video-a-huge-convoy-of-russian-military-vehicles-is-moving-towards-ukraine/

[kaur]

mirhond, you like critical analysis of sources. You couldn't sacrifice 15 min to google the backround of your tank story. Look what I found. First sources started to talk about 3 tanks about week ago. They started to cite source peacekeeper.ru. Like this one.

http://www.yaplakal.com/forum1/topic831226.html

If you go to peacekeeper cite, there is not much info about owners. Wierd? Goole found that peacekeeper site is project of http://info21.ru.

If you go to the info21 site, then you find that head of this organisation is Alexander Starunski. Google finds out that some good years ago colonel Starunski worked in Northern Caucasus as head of information operations.


Заместитель командующего Объединенной группой войск на Северном Кавказе по информационной политике подполковник Александр Старунский сообщил, что в Аргуне в ночь на 5 февраля при проведении специальной операции уничтожен организатор террористического акта Мовсара Бараева на Дубровке Иса Джантаев.

http://www.specnaz.ru/antiterror/151/

So, I dare to say that this tank story from peacekeeper is nice example about Russian maskirovka and disinformation.

Ray, did Obama took Wolfowitz doctrine file with him? I doubt :) I do encourage you to study deeper that Eastern Partnership topic. This is quite complicated topic and a lot of contradictions.

[kaur]

Novaya Gazeta has again good story about Russians, who got decorated due to their merits concerning Crimea. Google translate is even worse than my English, but you'll get the point.


Heroes classified as "Confidential"

At the disposal of "Novaya Gazeta" was awarded for a list of Crimean campaign
16.06.2014

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://novayagazeta.livejournal.com/&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnovaya%2Bgazeta%2Bblog%26espv%3D2%26b iw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

[Ray]

Ray---Turkey was making good strides in matching the EU requirements that were being required---then Turkey stopped about the time the demonstrations started and the accusation of massive corruption against their current PM came up and for many young Turks viewing the EU as "modern" The MB effect has started--meaning a slow and steady "Islamization" of the country which is in the Turkish Constitution forbidden since Ataturk days.

This PM though wants to change the Constitution to favor Islam but cannot due to the EU demands thus he has been looking for ways to slow down Turkey joining the EU---not vice versa.

Living in a city in Germany that has the highest number of Turks outside Istanbul tends to give one a real sense of what is actually going on inside Turkey and that is not being revealed either by Turkish government leaning media or western press.


Turkey 'will probably never be EU member'
Turkey will probably never become a member of the European Union because of stiff opposition and "prejudiced" attitudes from current members, a senior Turkish minister has admitted.

Turkey's accession talks have essentially frozen for three years. France has always been a strong opponent while Germany objected strongly to the degree of force used by the Turkish security forces to break up anti-government demonstrations in Istanbul in June.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/10325218/Turkey-will-probably-never-be-EU-member.html



This from a British newspaper.

On Islam and EU


Angela Merkel promised the Pope that she would use her influence during Germany's presidency to try to include a reference to Christianity and God in the treaty. This has provoked opposition, not least in the German press
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5337166.stm


Kosovo, Albanian predominant, has not been taken in the EU but has the EU footprint all over.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Member_States_of_the_European_Union_%28polar_stere ographic_projection%29_EN.svg/539px-Member_States_of_the_European_Union_%28polar_stere ographic_projection%29_EN.svg.png

Note the white spaces in Europe.

I believe Norway has voted ‘no’ twice in referendums.

The arguments for saying ‘no’ were that membership was a threat to the sovereignty of Norway, the fishing industries and agriculture would suffer, that membership would result in increased centralisation, and there would be less favourable conditions for equality and the welfare state. Fishing is extremely important to the Norwegian economy, especially for coastal areas. It is the second largest industry in Norway, after oil.

[mirhond]

So, I dare to say that this tank story from peacekeeper is nice example about Russian maskirovka and disinformation.

I don't get your point - Russians did this to hide what and disinform whom? Your elaborate reasoning disclosures nothing about that case. You still have no hard evidence that these three freshly demothballed T-64 came from Russia, not from the base in Artemovsk or weren't taken as trophies by separatists, as your links claim.

[kaur]

1. peacekeeper.ru starts spread the smoke in Russian information field, that оплчение got tanks from Ukrainian army.

2. peacekeeper.ru is project under Russian information policy officer

3. mission of information policy officer is to hide the real activities of his employer.

mirhond, I do understand that in Russia you can buy everything from shop. Putin said the same thing about green gentle guys in Crimea also. He admitted some time later that Russians were present. Will he admit it this time?

http://tvrain.ru/articles/putin_zagovoril_vvoda_vojsk_ne_budet_a_krym_ohranj ajut_mestnye_otrjady_samooborony-364386/

[mirhond]

1. peacekeeper.ru starts spread the smoke in Russian information field, that оплчение got tanks from Ukrainian army.

2. peacekeeper.ru is project under Russian information policy officer

3. mission of information policy officer is to hide the real activities of his employer.

mirhond, I do understand that in Russia you can buy everything from shop. Putin said the same thing about green gentle guys in Crimea also. He admitted some time later that Russians were present. Will he admit it this time?

http://tvrain.ru/articles/putin_zagovoril_vvoda_vojsk_ne_budet_a_krym_ohranj ajut_mestnye_otrjady_samooborony-364386/

1. I fail to see how this site is connected to several footages of three tanks roaming around Donetsk, you still have no hard evidence that these three freshly demothballed T-64 came from Russia

2. I don't read minds, but I give 80% probability that Putin will admit presence of Russian volunteers when the whole mess will be over, one way or other.


upd. good qoutation from Orwell's "Looking back on the Spanish War"

The only propaganda line open to the Nazis and Fascists was to represent themselves as Christian patriots saving Spain from a Russian dictatorship. This involved pretending that life in Government Spain was just one long massacre (vide the Catholic Herald or the Daily Mail — but these were child's play compared with the Continental Fascist press), and it involved immensely exaggerating the scale of Russian intervention. Out of the huge pyramid of lies which the Catholic and reactionary press all over the world built up, let me take just one point — the presence in Spain of a Russian army. Devout Franco partisans all believed in this; estimates of its strength went as high as half a million. Now, there was no Russian army in Spain. There may have been a handful of airmen and other technicians, a few hundred at the most, but an army there was not. Some thousands of foreigners who fought in Spain, not to mention millions of Spaniards, were witnesses of this. Well, their testimony made no impression at all upon the Franco propagandists, not one of whom had set foot in Government Spain. Simultaneously these people refused utterly to admit the fact of German or Italian intervention at the same time as the Germany and Italian press were openly boasting about the exploits of their’ legionaries’. I have chosen to mention only one point, but in fact the whole of Fascist propaganda about the war was on this level.

[kaur]

mirhond, nice discussion. First you post here information, that is from really suspicious source. Then you add speculations that are extension of that suspicious information. Then you add old Google pic that is next spin. What I must say now. Thanks for hard evidence? Are you kidding :)

About your Spanish thought. Isn't time for you to look in the mirror? Hunta, fascists, Western conspiracy etc. Russians have lied so many times during last long months, that I don't even dare to believe your weather forecast :)

[mirhond]

mirhond, nice discussion. First you post here information, that is from really suspicious source. Then you add speculations that are extension of that suspicious information. Then you add old Google pic that is next spin. What I must say now. Thanks for hard evidence? Are you kidding :)

About your Spanish thought. Isn't time for you to look in the mirror? Hunta, fascists, Western conspiracy etc. Russians have lied so many times during last long months, that I don't even dare to believe your weather forecast :)

1. "Tale of three little tanks" is turning funny :) Well, if Youtube realtime footages from several different places is suspicious to you to the point of complete rejection, then there wouldn't be any evidence for you, exept that you are really want to believe without question, and if your believes don't change no matter what you see with your own eyes - it's called confirmation bias.

2. Its a perfect example of To Qouque Fallacy, would you stop doing this, pretty please? I even created special thread for you to rant about lies in Russian media, use it freely.

[Firn]

I think it is important to focus on the basics. If Putin has sent Russian tanks to support the Russian-backed or Russian forces waging war against Ukraine, as Nato intelligence does strongly suggest or not changes very little about the fact that Putin's Russia is waging war against Ukraine.

[Ray]

Ray, did Obama took Wolfowitz doctrine file with him? I doubt :) I do encourage you to study deeper that Eastern Partnership topic. This is quite complicated topic and a lot of contradictions.

Foreign Policy and Strategic perspective does not change with changes in Govt, especially those which have direct advantage to the Country.

In the changed geopolitical environment after the Cold War, the Wolfowich Doctrine was the right way to proceed, if the US was to maintain her paramount position in the world.

I daresay any change in Govt of the country of the US' world stature, would wily nily, ensure that it becomes second rate.

Now, if it is your suggestion that the Obama Administration has trashed the Wolfowich Doctrine and abandoned it totally,then could you indicate what is the doctrine Obama is pursuing and if the EaP (Eastern Partnership) is not in line with the Wolfowich Doctrine.

As I have mentioned earlier, the aim enunciated as the raison d'tre for the EaP is laudable, but, to put it bluntly, the professed altruism is the usual Goody Two Shoes window dressing that accompanies the rationale for such alliances. Anyone who has done in-depth analysis of any such treaty document would not take it at face value, unless one is naive.

EU was in a tizzy and there were serious disagreements in the plan to bail out the cash strapped EU member, Greece, and here you wish to justify that because of altruistic compassion, the EU is embracing with warm comfort, near failed states of erstwhile USSR.

Forgive me, but I can't help being pragmatic in my approach since the jigsaw for the rationale of events in the past and the present is not falling in place.

[kaur]

1. Ray, I suggest you to read this story.

http://www.ceps.be/book/after-vilnius-fiasco-who-blame-what-be-done

2. mirhond, you want to make this three tank story funny. I say it again, you started to spin very suspicious story without no proof.

How you comment that 3 Grad epsiode?

Column of separatists is moving in Donetsk area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPSlOsCXkYk

Here is one Grad cought by Ukrainian forces. Take a closer look at thouse wierd horizontal panels on the sides and between backlights. Those are not part of original Grad construction. Isn't this construction used to fix cover over MRL system? I don't comment those Russian documents :)

http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/1195-hroniki-rossiysko-ukrainskoy-voyny-rossiyskiy-grad-pod-dobropolem-foto?_utl_t=fb


The following pictures are from an exercise that the 18th brigade held in 2011 - source in Russian: Denis Mokrushin
Note the Ural based launchers and a similar marking scheme, especially on the second from right truck

http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/193357-ukraine-launches-major-offensive-against-pro-russian-separatists-2-a-22.html#post1063406056

[Ray]

1. Ray, I suggest you to read this story.

http://www.ceps.be/book/after-vilnius-fiasco-who-blame-what-be-done



Instead of asking me to study history, it would be more useful if you could educate by indicating how I am reading the realtime events wrong.

[kaur]

Ray, I don't understand what you want me to say? I give you link that explains EP programm history and failure before last autumn summit, that triggered events in Ukraine (the topic is about that). You are talking about neocons worldview, that Americans hoped to get rid electing Obama president. Should I say that necons have established their underground in EU and in EP countries? How is Greece bailout connected to this topic? Seriously, I have to admit that I'm too slow for your sharp ideas :(

[Ray]

Ray, I don't understand what you want me to say? I give you link that explains EP programm history and failure before last autumn summit, that triggered events in Ukraine (the topic is about that). You are talking about neocons worldview, that Americans hoped to get rid electing Obama president. Should I say that necons have established their underground in EU and in EP countries? How is Greece bailout connected to this topic? Seriously, I have to admit that I'm too slow for your sharp ideas :(

It is no brainer.

I am trying to look at and understand the issue logically causative of the end of the Cold War and the New World Order - the new period of dramatic change in world political thought and the balance of power.

I am not looking at it piecemeal and that is where you and I are divergent.

It is a strawman's argument to blame Neocons (I am not too conversant with American expressions and so forgive me if I have used it wrongly). Having dabble in geostrategy, I think that the Neocons were spot on. And like it or not, those who are observing the US from a distance and in a non partisan manner, since it does not affect them, think that what the US and the West is doing is exactly what Wolfowich enunciated - no brooking upstarts who wish to challenge US supremacy.

Do you really think Obama or anyone else being US citizens will deviate from such 'noble' thoughts of US supremacy?

Russia having been brought to their knees suddenly having grandiose ideas of still being a superpower is but an 'upstart' in US calculations, if I got it right.

What has the Greece bailout to do with it?

Lets make it easier to understand with a practical example.

If you have a huge problem to salvage a poor relation, it would be rather daft and disingenuous to suggest that you go and embrace and salvage panhandlers (I believe that means those who are down and out and require doles and charity to exist).

That is why all the clever altruism of the Eastern European Partnership that you want me to believe is appearing to be a bit too thick.

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.

[kaur]

Ray, pardon, but I'm not American neocon specialist. Can't help you studing them :(

[Ray]

Ray, pardon, but I'm not American neocon specialist. Can't help you studing them :(

No one is a specialist.

It is only a question of being observant and having a inquiring and open mind.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---another example of Russian weapons in the Ukraine that were never issued by the Ukrainian Army and the MANPADs were based on the packing documents issued to a Russian Army unit---how did they then get to the Ukraine from that Russian Army unit---maybe some Russian Technical SGT "sold" them?

http://inforesist.org/en/photo-proof-of-russian-supply-of-weapons-to-militants-in-the-donbas/

[OUTLAW 09]

1. "Tale of three little tanks" is turning funny :) Well, if Youtube realtime footages from several different places is suspicious to you to the point of complete rejection, then there wouldn't be any evidence for you, exept that you are really want to believe without question, and if your believes don't change no matter what you see with your own eyes - it's called confirmation bias.

2. Its a perfect example of To Qouque Fallacy, would you stop doing this, pretty please? I even created special thread for you to rant about lies in Russian media, use it freely.

mirhond--remember my use of the term "Russian fascists"---it in fact seems that armed irregular Russian "fascists" have arrived into eastern Ukraine as based on their own press release.

So exactly why are Russian "fascists" supposedly fighting against Ukrainian "fascists"----now that explain that twist if you can.

http://inforesist.org/en/detachments-of-russian-fascists-arrive-in-donbas-to-help-the-militants/

AND you never did comment on the photos of Russian MANPADs together with the actual Russia unit name who "originally" owned them.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---it seems that Putin "lied" to the world when he stated that all Russian troops had returned to their bases and were no longer on the Ukrainian border.

It seems your "bearded Cossack" was actually lying so why believe the "bearded Cossack"?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/19/uk-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUKKBN0EU12020140619

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---just why does Russia not want the Ukraine to have an unilateral demarcation of the border---cannot any country on their own "legally" mark their territorial borders UNLESS Russia sees the Ukraine as Russian and wants no "legally recognizable" border demarcation to exist that would deny their claim to the Ukraine as Russian territory.

I mean really mirhond come on even Russia has legal borders but the Ukraine cannot have them?

The Russian Foreign Ministry has been complaining about "demarcation" for the last week.

Since when is Putin "afraid" of "legal" borders?

[Firn]

Provocations, Proxies and Plausible Deniability (http://www.interpretermag.com/provocations-proxies-and-plausible-deniability/)

I suggested before that one key advantage of not-so well conceiled Russian invasion with shallow 'plausible' deniability was that it offered an opening for those not willing to shoulder some costs of heavier sanctions.


The key element in the current Ukraine crisis has been the ability of the Kremlin to maintain plausible deniability in the face of overt aggression, interference and invasion. Without this presentation, the diplomatic and economic links upon which Russia depends for leverage would be vulnerable. This leverage is most important with regards to European states who would be greatly hesitant to sacrifice their business interests and gas supplies.

Those relationships would have been at much greater risk had Russia invaded Ukraine with marked military units. Instead, by invading Crimea with unmarked troops and denying the presence of any Russian military forces until after the event, Vladimir Putin provided the essential space to maintain face. No leaders have been willing to cut their losses unless they absolutely have to. The invasion of Crimea was treated as a future possibility by European and American diplomats long after it was clear, within the first 24 hours of the “little green men” arriving at airports and administrative buildings, that Russia had begun a military invasion of sovereign European territory.

Something which I have seen confused, also in this thread are Russia's and Putins goals. Obviously as long as Putin holds almost regime-like most strings of power he is able to dominate Russia's policy and opponents and 'partners' have to treat both as largely the same. However from an internal Russian point of view the difference can be quite stark and is likely to increase in the longer run after the propaganda-driven euphoria gives more space to the price paid.

Overall it is still early days and it is important to remember how many praised the 'smart' US foreign policy in Iraq in those early days. Things can change a lot in a couple of months, even more so in years. We will see then clearer how smart Putins decisions were for his own good and for the Russian people...

[OUTLAW 09]

Provocations, Proxies and Plausible Deniability (http://www.interpretermag.com/provocations-proxies-and-plausible-deniability/)

I suggested before that one key advantage of not-so well conceiled Russian invasion with shallow 'plausible' deniability was that it offered an opening for those not willing to shoulder some costs of heavier sanctions.



Something which I have seen confused, also in this thread are Russia's and Putins goals. Obviously as long as Putin holds almost regime-like most strings of power he is able to dominate Russia's policy and opponents and 'partners' have to treat both as largely the same. However from an internal Russian point of view the difference can be quite stark and is likely to increase in the longer run after the propaganda-driven euphoria gives more space to the price paid.

Overall it is still early days and it is important to remember how many praised the 'smart' US foreign policy in Iraq in those early days. Things can change a lot in a couple of months, even more so in years. We will see then clearer how smart Putins decisions were for his own good and for the Russian people...


firn---more Russian equipment and irregulars crossed again in the face of Putin having said the border was closed and the increased Russian Army troop presence which they "claim" is not a build up.

http://inforesist.org/en/a-flow-of-weapons-and-military-equipment-goes-across-the-ukrainian-russian-border/

Interesting video showing actual Russian trucks, artillery, one tank and APCs evidently coming into the separatists from Russia---and still Putin "claims" no involvement and yes we have the border secure statements will now get Putin even heavier sanctions as no one is believing anything he is saying any more.

http://inforesist.org/en/video-a-convoy-of-russian-military-equipment-arrives-in-lugansk/

[OUTLAW 09]

With the new Russian "enhanced" border security does anyone have a clue as to "how" then Russian military equipment and irregular fighters are getting across the border?

Or maybe "enhanced" means if you are an irregular you are good to cross or if you are Ukrainian we will not allow you to cross into Russia.

Putin has a strange way of defining what a border security enhancement and a "military buildup" is---all word games for the same thing as the equipment and irregulars are still crossing.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140620/190629816/Kremlin-Says-No-Russian-Military-Buildup-Near-Ukraine-Only.html

[OUTLAW 09]

More photos of a Russian BRT-80 and Russian MANPADs which had Russian Army documents on them indicating they had been "checked out" of their Russian Army installations complete with Russian military stamps and signatures and military unit designations.

Ukrainian SBU released as well the photos/passports of three Russian citizens who they are claiming are GRU personnel responsible for the Odessa fire on 2 May that Russia demanded be investigated which it seems now involved Russians---Russians have sine dropped the demand for an investigation from their daily press releases.

So much for Putin's "enhanced Border security efforts".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/all-signs-point-to-russia-kyiv-says-it-has-evidence-of-moscow-meddling-in-ukraine-photos-352718.html

[JMA]

So much for Putin's "enhanced Border security efforts".

And who ... other than the Germans - would have believed Putin anyway?

[Firn]

And who ... other than the Germans - would have believed Putin anyway?

At least according to the 'neutral' Swiss NZZ 'the Germans', at least the vast majority, especially in the media and politics are especially distrustful (http://www.nzz.ch/international/gegen-juden-kiew-und-kondensstreifen-1.18326895) of Putin and his actions. There are of course some who differ, mostly payed mouthpieces, useful idiots and fringe lunatics but it seems to be a relative small minority.


Von alledem ist einiges ganz gut beobachtet. Tatsaechlich haben sich die Demarkationslinien des politischen Kampfes in den letzten Jahren deutlich verschoben. Das alte Links-Rechts-Schema taugt nichts mehr. In der linksalternativen «Tageszeitung», in deren Redaktion lange viele Altachtundsechziger sassen, finden sich mindestens ebenso scharfe Artikel gegen Putin wie in der einst konservativen, heute ideologisch solide eingemitteten «Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung». Groessere Publikationen, die Putin und Russland unterstuetzten, gibt es in der deutschen Medienlandschaft tatsaechlich keine, sieht man ab von Russia Today, dem Gegenstück zu CNN, BBC und Euronews, der Zeitungsbeilage «Russland Heute», der erfolgreichen Video-Agentur Ruptly und natuerlich der Stimme Russlands. Die offizielle deutsche Politik reproduziert diese Einseitigkeit. Von den Bundestagsparteien vermag lediglich die Linke Sympathien für den Kreml aufzubringen und auch das nur halbherzig. Die Gruenen, einst links, alternativ und allem Autoritaeren abhold, sind die erbittertsten Gegner Putins. Dessen Freunde verschaffen sich mit einer Flut von Leserbriefen und auf dem Internet Gehoer, doch ins Establishment dringen sie nicht vor. Die Auseinandersetzung um die Ukraine ist ein Streit zwischen der Elite und Wutbuergern geworden, zwischen «denen da oben», die korrupt sind und sich von den Amerikanern haben kaufen lassen, und den Klarsichtigen, Ehrlichen, aber bedauerlicherweise nicht Herrschenden.

It is also worth to point out that Germany seems to take the sanctions and arms sales quite a bit more serious then for example the French. Overall it is no surprise at all that there are quite a bit of differences and no government and no company likes to pay the price of sanctions. The size of the miltary contracts of the Mistral ships for example dwarfs the other military business deals done (and partly cancelled) with the Kremlin, so there is more at stake.

[Firn]

That military supply and fitting documents are just the most recent threads in the carpet of Russias war against Ukraine, making it's patterns stand out clearer.

Heavy weapons have been sent in by Putin in still rather limited numbers, it seems, we will see if their numbers get increased by the Kremlin. The most likely explanation are considerable losses among the relatively lightly armed Russian-led forces operating inside Ukraine suffered against an opposition which has increasingly used more firepower. So far it seems there has been only quite limited success to recruit Ukrainian nationals, with Putin having to send in more overtly Russian formations. I wrote a long time ago that the Ukrainian forces might be overall badly trained, poorly equipped, wrongly led but they exist and are increasingly making it harder for the enemy which has attacked their country.

It is a rather fluid situation indeed, with more blood getting spilled each day Putin's war continues. He is certainly not making lots of friends in Ukraine, even if sweet Mariachi (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVbFps__Ov8) songs and friendly chants (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF5bhz87CZs) praise him.

[mirhond]

I wrote a long time ago that the Ukrainian forces might be overall badly trained, poorly equipped, wrongly led but they exist and are increasingly making it harder for the enemy which has attacked their country.

It is a rather fluid situation indeed, with more blood getting spilled each day Putin's war continues. He is certainly not making lots of friends in Ukraine, even if sweet Mariachi (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVbFps__Ov8) songs and friendly chants (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF5bhz87CZs) praise him.

You forgot to mention that the majority Ukrainian soldiers (who are either conscripts or contract soldiers) participating in COIN are not going to die for "Poroshenko's yacht", and the only reliable and highly motivated troops available for Kiev are the National Guard made of die-hard Ukrainian Nazi, that's why it took entire month and several thousand of foot solders in the field to chase off a handful of separatists from small town Krasny Liman, for example.
"Ukropians" amassed from 10,000 to 30,000 of regulars with armor, artillery and airpower against no more than 3,000-5,000 militias (well, probably 20% of them are hardened Soviet veterans and even Russian serviceman on duty) equipped with no more than infantry weapons - and still they have no major success.
Your tale of
overtly Russian formations is wishful thinking.

[kaur]

One point by Russian military journalist, I'd like to share with mirhond.


Экспорт ненависти

June 20th, 10:51

Основной вид военной поддержки, которую Россия оказывает Донецку и Луганску - это геббельсовщина.
Если бы Россия не экспортировала на Украину такие потоки вранья и ненависти, никакой войны на Востоке не началось бы вообще.
Боевики и оружие - это, конечно, очень важная статья импорта, но все же - вторичная.
А основопологающая - геббельсовщина.
Стрелков с Бесом могли возникнуть и начать захватывать администрации только потому, что была накачка телевидения про "Правый сектор", который теперь - после Майдана - уже точно придет и перережет всех русских. Без этого никакие зеленые человечки были бы невозможны.

http://starshinazapasa.livejournal.com/798724.html

And here you can find the list of those modern day Russian heroes.

http://b0ltai.wordpress.com/2014/05/13/кого-наградят-за-крым-полный-список/

[OUTLAW 09]

You forgot to mention that the majority Ukrainian soldiers (who are either conscripts or contract soldiers) participating in COIN are not going to die for "Poroshenko's yacht", and the only reliable and highly motivated troops available for Kiev are the National Guard made of die-hard Ukrainian Nazi, that's why it took entire month and several thousand of foot solders in the field to chase off a handful of separatists from small town Krasny Liman, for example.
"Ukropians" amassed from 10,000 to 30,000 of regulars with armor, artillery and airpower against no more than 3,000-5,000 militias (well, probably 20% of them are hardened Soviet veterans and even Russian serviceman on duty) equipped with no more than infantry weapons - and still they have no major success.
Your tale of is wishful thinking.

And mirhond you seemed to have overlooked my comment which pointed to a Russian fascist group by name that made they arrival announcement in eastern Ukraine three days ago.

So Russian fascists are what better or worse than Ukrainian fascists?

Come on mirhond---that is a tired record you all keep repeating concerning Nazi's---I thought the victorious Rad Army destroyed them in 1945?---but wait why are they then still existing in Russia?

Answer--Russia does not have fascists---but wait they actually do--so who is lying you or Putin?

See --Russia claims to want and need the OCSE-- BUT wait is it not Russian Cossacks that kidnapped an entire OCSE team including one Russian---come on mirhond you have got to get better.

By the way you failed to respond to the pictures of Russian military equipment "checked out by someone in Russia" that is in the Ukraine complete with Russian Army documents---BUT wait the Ukrainians are Nazi's so the documents and equipment are wait fakes?

come on mirhond you all have to get better at this.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond--remember my use of the term "Russian fascists"---it in fact seems that armed irregular Russian "fascists" have arrived into eastern Ukraine as based on their own press release.

So exactly why are Russian "fascists" supposedly fighting against Ukrainian "fascists"----now that explain that twist if you can.

http://inforesist.org/en/detachments-of-russian-fascists-arrive-in-donbas-to-help-the-militants/

AND you never did comment on the photos of Russian MANPADs together with the actual Russia unit name who "originally" owned them.

mirhond--let me see if I understand your dislike of Ukrainian Nazi's or as you say "fascists" BUT wait these are Russian "fascists".

so mirhond are you saying Russian "fascists" are the good guys and Ukrainian "fascists" are the bad guys.

You being a Russian I would have believed you would be against even Russian "fascists"?

So mirhond what is actually your position on this question---but hey I know it already---you will not respond.

[OUTLAW 09]

More photos of a Russian BTR-80 and Russian MANPADs which had Russian Army documents on them indicating they had been "checked out" of their Russian Army installations complete with Russian military stamps and signatures and military unit designations.

Ukrainian SBU released as well the photos/passports of three Russian citizens who they are claiming are GRU personnel responsible for the Odessa fire on 2 May that Russia demanded be investigated which it seems now involved Russians---Russians have sine dropped the demand for an investigation from their daily press releases.

So much for Putin's "enhanced Border security efforts".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/all-signs-point-to-russia-kyiv-says-it-has-evidence-of-moscow-meddling-in-ukraine-photos-352718.html

So mirhond---if your right about the Ukrainian fascists---so this is then your story is some Ukrainian "fascists" did what ---drive to this Russian military unit and "paid" some corrupt Russian and I will use your own previous words when you talked about the T64s kaur pointed out to you BUT back to the story about this "corrupt" Russian Technical SGT.

So this fascist Ukrainian who drove god knows where the Russian Army unit was located and then paid what 100 USD for this BTR 80 to this "corrupt" Russian Army member and then somehow "drove" this BTR 80 on Russian highways fueling I guess at the local gas stations (not being seen I assume as well) from somewhere in Russia and "somehow" crossed the Russian border which the Russian Army/Putin "claims" they have "enhanced the border security on" and then drives it to eastern Ukraine to there only have it "taken" from him by Ukrainian "freedom fighters" that are actually disguised Russian Cossacks or Russian Chechens....right......?

Wow mirhond a great story if it is true but again as always Russians do not lie---right........

Same story I guess for the MANPADs as well---come on mirhond get a better story line going as the old one has worn itself out.

[mirhond]

One point by Russian military journalist, I'd like to share with mirhond.

Если бы Россия не экспортировала на Украину такие потоки вранья и ненависти, никакой войны на Востоке не началось бы вообще.
Боевики и оружие - это, конечно, очень важная статья импорта, но все же - вторичная.
А основопологающая - геббельсовщина.
Стрелков с Бесом могли возникнуть и начать захватывать администрации только потому, что была накачка телевидения про "Правый сектор", который теперь - после Майдана - уже точно придет и перережет всех русских. Без этого никакие зеленые человечки были бы невозможны.


Follow rules, please, and do bother to translate your posts to English. I've sent you PM with an answer why your quotation is BS

@Outlaw I don't read your posts.

[kaur]

mirhond, nice to see you back after short pause, that begun after exposure of Russsian Grad in Ukraine. mirhond, no comment?

I hope that interested readers managed Google translate Russian journalists article "Export of hate". This man fought has conscript in I Chechen war and has covered following Russian wars. Mirhond didn't like Babchenko's point and it seems that he is under Russian TV influence himself, if I consider his Russian wordings and Russian latest statistics ;)


Half of all Russians consider television to be the most reliable source of information for domestic and international news coverage, a recent study of the Russian media environment has shown.

The study published Tuesday by independent pollster Levada Center found that 50 percent of Russians — and 65 percent of Muscovites — trust television more than any other news source.

After television, which is largely state-controlled, the most reliable sources of information were considered to be "friends, relatives and neighbors," followed by news websites, newspapers and radio, according to the Levada Center's latest findings.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/50-of-russians-think-tv-is-most-reliable-source-of-information-poll-shows/502258.html

[Firn]

Combined with the practically total control of the Kremlin over this media is a surprise there are indeed Russians who oppose it's wars and oppression. Especially if one can observe that even those who have access to foreign media and communities, mostly through the internet and thanks to their language skills sometimes follow the Kremlin line down to the single memes like Nazi this and fascist that. Of course now we know much more about the considerable lenghts to which Putin's men go to spread lies and hatred as well as to tighten their grip on the Russian portion of the net.

This is however no news anymore and should not be the point of this post. What is much more interesting and difficult to gather is how large and deeply rooted or small and shallow the popular support for the Putin's war is in areas and cities of the two-three oblasts is. Of course part of the reasons for the armed violence and the fake referendums by the local puppets was to avoid the potential embarassement of a regular elections with the 'wrong' outcome which would have helped to roughly determine the level of support at that point.

Perhaps later.

[JMA]

I suggest that Putin has been 'playing' the Germans along to let them believe there was no need for the sanctions against Russia which would be painful for Germany as well. He has succeeded in this which tells the world a lot about the real strenghts and weaknesses of Germany and the leadership of Frau Merkel.

Russia has nothing to fear from Germany.


At least according to the 'neutral' Swiss NZZ 'the Germans', at least the vast majority, especially in the media and politics are especially distrustful (http://www.nzz.ch/international/gegen-juden-kiew-und-kondensstreifen-1.18326895) of Putin and his actions. There are of course some who differ, mostly payed mouthpieces, useful idiots and fringe lunatics but it seems to be a relative small minority.

It is also worth to point out that Germany seems to take the sanctions and arms sales quite a bit more serious then for example the French. Overall it is no surprise at all that there are quite a bit of differences and no government and no company likes to pay the price of sanctions. The size of the miltary contracts of the Mistral ships for example dwarfs the other military business deals done (and partly cancelled) with the Kremlin, so there is more at stake.

[OUTLAW 09]

Follow rules, please, and do bother to translate your posts to English. I've sent you PM with an answer why your quotation is BS

@Outlaw I don't read your posts.

see mirhond that is the difference between your blogging for the FSB and myself--I read every word and every misstatement you make and record them thus the ability to go back and even "quote" you.

see mirhond nearly everything you "rant" about has turned out to be falsehood which you cover over by using the words Nazi's or fascists if a comment is directed towards you and it is not your "truth".

Surprisingly you remain "quiet" when actual photos of Russian equipment and Russian army documents are displayed but then again you would state they are Ukrainian "fakes"---right mirhond?

By not responding makes it easier for me to post actual Russian documents, Russian photos and Russian passports to indicate your falsehoods without you making false statements and posting totally unrelated photos to divert from the truth.

No need to respond as I will keep posting the other side of the story that you do not like to hear.

[OUTLAW 09]

You forgot to mention that the majority Ukrainian soldiers (who are either conscripts or contract soldiers) participating in COIN are not going to die for "Poroshenko's yacht", and the only reliable and highly motivated troops available for Kiev are the National Guard made of die-hard Ukrainian Nazi, that's why it took entire month and several thousand of foot solders in the field to chase off a handful of separatists from small town Krasny Liman, for example.
"Ukropians" amassed from 10,000 to 30,000 of regulars with armor, artillery and airpower against no more than 3,000-5,000 militias (well, probably 20% of them are hardened Soviet veterans and even Russian serviceman on duty) equipped with no more than infantry weapons - and still they have no major success.
Your tale of is wishful thinking.

so mirhond the over 289 wooden caskets containing dead Russians being transferred at night into Russia so no one an see the caskets is what a "victory" ----- come on mirhond at least admit the Russian mercenaries at taking loses from none professional contract soldiers---they seem to be shooting straighter than the Russian mercenaries are these days.

That would not be a falsehood so just maybe "the Ukrainian fascists" you always rant about are better that you are willing to admit?

[OUTLAW 09]

Maybe we can get mirhond to comment on the firefight yesterday between the Ukrainian Border Security Forces in the evening who first protected the civilians who were crossing and then under heavy fire moved to the Russian side of the border and together with Russian Border Security fired back on the Russian mercenaries.

Now mirhond---- that is really a strange turn of events-- Ukrainians and Russians firing back at what Ukrainian "separatists, federationists or outright Russian fascist mercenaries".

AND mirhond what was so "important" for the Russian mercenaries to risk a major firefight with two Border Security Services? ---- seems they were attempting to move something "out" of the Ukraine and "into" Russia---must have been more dead Russians that no on is suppose to see?

http://inforesist.org/en/militants-attacked-the-border-crossing-point-izvarino-6-guards-were-wounded/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---you do not need to reply--here is another set of Russian passports from a Russian mercenary hired by the FSB to kill Ukrainian military for a fee.

SBU has a video of his statements --but again you do not need to watch it as they are "fakes" in your world.

Out of 90 foreign mercenaries recently captured 13 were Russians including FSB and GRU officers.

But in your world mirhond the SBU are all Ukrainian "fascists" using again your own words.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/captured-russian-mercenary-near-sloviansk-condemns-putin-asks-for-forgiveness-video-352834.html

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---appears that not all the eastern Ukrainians "want" to be "liberated" by the Russian mercenaries.

http://inforesist.org/en/terrorists-carried-out-a-punitive-operation-in-a-rioted-village-in-the-donetsk-region/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond--falsehood or fact---appears Russian military has military vehicles and Russian solider wearing Ukrainian military insignias "inside" Russian territoty---how can that be?

Russia has accumulated tanks with Ukrainian identifying insignia on the border with Ukraine, possibly for provocations, the spokesman for the information center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), Volodymyr Chepovy, has said.

"Military hardware, including tanks with Ukrainian identifying insignia, as well as servicemen dressed in Ukrainian Armed Forces uniforms, were seen in the Russian Federation near the village of Millerovo, Kuibyshev district, Rostov region," he said at a briefing on Saturday.

He said that this could be aimed at "committing provocations in Ukraine or even in Russia."

[kaur]

Putin is playing nice game!


BRUSSELS - EU countries have threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia if it does not help to stop violence in the run-up to the Ukraine treaty signature on Friday (27 June).

Foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday endorsed Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire and urged Russia to “adopt effective measures to stop the continued flow of illegal fighters, arms and equipment over the border into Ukraine, [and] to use its influence on the separatists to stop the violence and lay down their arms”.

http://euobserver.com/foreign/124706

Like coincidence Ukrainian and Russian exported rebels decided to start negotiations that continue till the day of meeting of EU leaders :)


KIEV, Ukraine — Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine agreed Monday to a four-day cease-fire and to further negotiations with the government, a move that could help quell a conflict that has paralyzed the nation and defer further E.U. and U.S. sanctions against Russia.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/separatists-in-ukraine-agree-to-honor-cease-fire/2014/06/23/40582a78-fb07-11e3-b1f4-8e77c632c07b_story.html

I think that we can say already today, that EU leaders decide that situation has been deescalated and there will be no next level sanctions.

[mirhond]

1. Ukraine refused to accept a humanitarian aid from Russia

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/foreign-ministry-ukraine-cannot-accept-humanitarian-aid-from-russia-353865.html


taking into account the indefiniteness of its end addressee.

while Russian FM is completly clear about "its end adressee"

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/2E2E1FD085DB712944257D0400582233

Junta couldn't care less about civilians.

2. Small investigation of a newly created COIN unit "Shahtarsk", from one meticulous blogger.

http://a-dyukov.livejournal.com/1464877.html

Commander of the unit, Ruslan Abal'maz
http://inforesist.org/wp-content/uploads/54_main.jpg?856524

is actually a petty criminal, who lost his illegal coal-mining business to DPR

resume: Kiev hires thugs to fight separatists, I believe that's because conscripts are reluctant to participate in that BS.

3. Outlaw, you claim you know Russian - then enjoy the "Book of the Violations of The Human Rights During The Civil Unrest in Ukraine", I believe your claim is outright lie, but, who knows..
http://igcp.eu/sites/default/files/monitoringi/ukrainei-net1.pdf

[OUTLAW 09]

1. Ukraine refused to accept a humanitarian aid from Russia

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/foreign-ministry-ukraine-cannot-accept-humanitarian-aid-from-russia-353865.html



while Russian FM is completly clear about "its end adressee"

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/2E2E1FD085DB712944257D0400582233

Junta couldn't care less about civilians.

2. Small investigation of a newly created COIN unit "Shahtarsk", from one meticulous blogger.

http://a-dyukov.livejournal.com/1464877.html

Commander of the unit, Ruslan Abal'maz
http://inforesist.org/wp-content/uploads/54_main.jpg?856524

is actually a petty criminal, who lost his illegal coal-mining business to DPR

resume: Kiev hires thugs to fight separatists, I believe that's because conscripts are reluctant to participate in that BS.

3. Outlaw, you claim you know Russian - then enjoy the "Book of the Violations of The Human Rights During The Civil Unrest in Ukraine", I believe your claim is outright lie, but, who knows..
http://igcp.eu/sites/default/files/monitoringi/ukrainei-net1.pdf

mirhond---the released Book Violations of Human Rights is as truthful as the NKVD telling Stalin that Germany was not going to invade the Soviet Union.

Noticed the Russia Border Security Forces were shelling this eastern Ukrainian "freedom fighters" that were trying to reenter the "motherland".

Will let you search for the article as it is a waste of time to link you to it as you never answer anyway.

Our security forces report: Russian border control guards destroy terrorists during their flight from the territory of Ukraine to Russia. However, they allow them entry into Ukraine without problems.

Purely in the style of the NKVD, Putin-style. Terrorists must know, the entrance to Donbas costs one Ruble, the exit costs two. It is easy to enter, but not as easy to get out, the fire of the ATO forces is ahead, and behind is the fire of Russian “friends.” Welcome to hell.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---did you recently notice that the Russian "freedom fighters" in eastern Ukraine seem to not care much about the Orthodox Church do they?

But then again "religious freedom" has not been a strong point in Russia since the NKVD days has it?

http://inforesist.org/en/russian-priest-militants-in-slovyansk-hide-mortars-behind-orthodox-churches/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---remember those T64RVs that you "claimed" were "Ukrainian"--- your comments turned out to be totally wrong as you alluded to them being Ukrainian but definitely not "Russian". Just "how" could they be "Russian"---lies from the West you alluded to.

Well it seems you were wrong again as it seems from the captured tank registration numbers it was in fact Russian Army equipment and it was never issued to the Ukrainian Army either in the Crimea and or Ukraine.

So come mirhond and you want me to "honestly" believe you that the Russian issued Book on Human Rights Violation is actually true? Come on mirhond get real or at least link to something that can be believed as nothing coming out of Russia has been true since they "annexed" the Crimea.

http://inforesist.org/en/defence-ministry-told-about-the-origin-of-tanks-in-slovyansk-photo/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---ever wonder where all the bodies of the killed "Russian war tourists" have been buried---since they were not being sent back to the "motherland".

http://inforesist.org/en/mod-general-a-diver-found-hundreds-of-bodies-of-terrorists-in-the-slovyansk-lake/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---and the West cannot "damage" Russia---so is the Ukraine "worth" the slow but steady destruction of the Russian economy?

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-minister-says-russias-economy-would-shrink-if-hit-by-sectoral-sanctions-353892.html

[kaur]

mirhond, another Russian in Donetsk Republic hierarchy as deputy of Russian PR guy Borodai. He paticipated during the two rounds of peace talks with OSCE, Kutchma, Medvetchuk etc. His name is Sergei Kavtaradze.

http://antimaydan.info/images/110654.jpg

This is his диссертация кандидата исторческих наук about Russian peacekeeping activities during ethnic conflicts in CIS territories from Lomonosov Moscow State University :D

http://www.dissercat.com/images/1page_diss/2318337.png

This is his study about manipulating with mind in Nazi Germany :D

http://www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/ipisi/2013_1/5.pdf

Seems to be right guy in right place at right time.

Who are there leading Donetsk people? FSB Strelkov as commander of armed wing, Russian PR guy Borodai as prime minister, Russian guy Kavtaradze as Borodai's deputy. I will not call all those cossacks and volunteers from Russia, but it seems that cadre and core are from Russia. Pluss hardware - MANPAD-s, tanks, MRL-s, RPG-s etc. ... and somebody calls this civil war.

mirhond, you posted book link. After little browser work with authors names I have to agree with Outlaw. If you find out who are Jon Hellevig and Janus Putkonen, you just can't belive the word in this book. I'm sorry.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---since we now know that theT64 tanks inside the Ukraine are in fact Russian registered military equipment can you explain how these four tanks made it inside the Ukraine after Putin gave orders to "enhance border security" to attack a Ukrainian checkpoint which I thought your "freedom fighters" had issued a "truce"---seems they lie to.

The first checkpoint near Slovyansk was practically levelled by terrorists, reports the ТСН.

Gunmen attacked a Ukrainian checkpoint with 4 tanks and support of heavy mortar fire. Therefore the Ukrainian military had to retreat.

On Friday Ukrainians have retaken this checkpoint under their control and fortified it with tanks. The bodies of our dead soldiers had to be defused as the terrorists put mines under the bodies. The exact quantity of dead on the first checkpoint near Slovyansk is unknown as terrorists shot down two APCs and the guys simply burned alive


Seems that Putin was lying or the Russian military is lying but the Russian freedom fighters are what not lying?

Seems nothing can be trusted out of the mouths of Russia politicians and or freedom fighters these days.

But wait the new economic sanctions might tell us who is not lying.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---this is why even your comments are not the truth.

Let us see ---the Russian Whitebook of HR is what based on your comments the "truth"?

06/29 10:06 Russian Foreign Ministry issues updated White Book on human rights abuse in Ukraine

BUT wait---when someone else releases a Human Right Violation Report on a country being 600% supported and armed by Russia then that is what "false"?

Not sure you should call the killing of 120,000 Syrians, over 2 million refugees, the use of barrel bombs, the use of chemical gas on civilians, the use of starvation as a weapons system equal to what---- the "discomfort" of proRussian Ukrainians now being robbed/killed by Russian "freedom fighters"---come on mirhond even you can see your own fallacies in your comments.

Oh---wait this Ukrainian thing started over what?--- someone's "language" and "a bunch of Nazi's" that no one seems to be able to find other than in Russian newspapers and in Russian minds?--come on mirhond get real.

19:59 Moscow raps UN's "biased" human rights document on Syria

Come on mirhond even you can see your "limitations" in what you are stating.

[mirhond]

mirhond, you posted book link. After little browser work with authors names I have to agree with Outlaw. If you find out who are Jon Hellevig and Janus Putkonen, you just can't belive the word in this book. I'm sorry.

A perfect example of Ad Hominem Fallacy.
Don't be sorry, its completely human to reject the truth if the truth is too frustrating.

[kaur]

mirhond, how you comment Kavtaradze episode?

About Djukov. Since he became human rights expert, he was historian. He was historian, who no serious historian took seriously. His profile was publishing thin books with KGB archive sources. What unites those Finns? They are friends of Russia's "useful idiot" Johan Bckman. Truth is not frustrating, truth is, like this Djukov case shows, that Russia's bench of talking heads is quite short and during new ideological war, the same old faces pop up. Like this case shows, people have to even change their profile. Big country, too few talents? mirhond, don't you get that Russia has lied so much, that your social capital is less than than zero. If this helps your self-esteem, then fine. If your weekly task is drop here 1 story made by information officers, the I understand you also. Life in Moscow is not cheap. Just don't think that you can sell those stories here easily.

[OUTLAW 09]

A perfect example of Ad Hominem Fallacy.
Don't be sorry, its completely human to reject the truth if the truth is too frustrating.

mirhond--finally happy to see that you fully agree that for Putin, Russia and yourself the "old" truth that the Crimea was Russian and eastern Ukraine as well as that "old" truth that borders are strictly to enlcose one's language is in fact a fantasy as you have admitted here a number of times recently.

Secondly, based on your own words those "Russian" T64Rvs were what an Ad Hominem Fallacy as it appears in your original own words that they were Ukrainian now seems as well what a fantasy?

Would you not agree?

See mirhond when you work for multiple bosses one forgets what one writes as you seem to never go back and reread what you have written---a bad habit or as you correctly stated an Ad Hominem Fallacy or maybe just fantasy on your part.

Trying to speak/write the truth is hard when the entire Russian leadership and the FSB speaks in tones other than the truth---right mirhond.

[OUTLAW 09]

A perfect example of Ad Hominem Fallacy.
Don't be sorry, its completely human to reject the truth if the truth is too frustrating.

Evidently mirhond you have never in your life spoken "truth" to power have you? If you ever did you would probably have been fired correct?

[mirhond]

mirhond, how you comment Kavtaradze episode?

Just don't think that you can sell those stories here easily.

1. What is Kavtaradze epizode, in the first place?

2. You consider SWJ as a market to sell stuff? I, personally, think it's a plase to learn new things and update one's beliefs.

[OUTLAW 09]

1. What is Kavtaradze epizode, in the first place?

2. You consider SWJ as a market to sell stuff? I, personally, think it's a plase to learn new things and update one's beliefs.

mirhond---the only problem with your comments is 1) you never respond to direct comments or questions placed to you, 2) you throw out your photos and links and again they say nothing but take up computer space, 3) your opinions are really not your own but someone else's and 4) you actually work for someone so how can your comments be your own comments---come on mirhond really.....?

so mirhond---exactly what are the new things you learned and what did you learn that you could update your beliefs with ---outside of the single set of facts---that anything being said inside Russian and from Russians leaders is not quite the truth---but then why would you admit that what they say are false sine you work for them?

You should actually instead of learning and updating your beliefs improve your written English or at least use SpellChecker.

I do not expect any answer from you since you yourself stated that truth is a hard thing for you. But again truth to power is not your thing is it?

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---here is something for you to learn and to update your beliefs---remember you claimed here in SWJ that the T64 tanks were "purchased" from a corrupt Ukrainian Technical SGT----will be happy to quote you directly.

Well you did not respond to my comment that the one of the tanks was captured and it was registered to a Russian military unit and had never been issued to the Ukraine.

Now here is a photo from the eastern Ukraine depicting a commercial long haul truck carrying more tanks into the eastern Ukraine.

So is Putin lying when he stated there are now "enhanced border security measures in place" or are there a really large number of "corrupt" Russian Federal Border Security officers?-----and the article is in Russian for you to read easier as you have a hard time with your English.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/06/30/7030505/

[kaur]

Outlaw, maybe thouse trailer guys have just wrong postal code? Maybe they found those tanks in the forest, found out in internet that Ukraine has similar, thought that they should do good favor and deliver things to owner, but Donbas people hijacked the vehicles. There was lost tanks case some time ago and things may happen again :)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/7338097/200-Russian-tanks-found-abandoned-in-forest.html

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NSLWydzdZJE

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, maybe thouse trailer guys have just wrong postal code? Maybe they found those tanks in the forest, found out in internet that Ukraine has similar, thought that they should do good favor and deliver things to owner, but Donbas people hijacked the vehicles. There was lost tanks case some time ago and things may happen again :)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/7338097/200-Russian-tanks-found-abandoned-in-forest.html

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NSLWydzdZJE

kaur---or just "maybe" a friendly, kindly, older maybe 70 years old and a former Waffen SS member Russian Border Security officer who needed money for his daughters "birthday" who was in the US studying at Harvard who was the driver.

But then again maybe he needed the money for the new Telsa he "purchased" recently in Berlin while "clubbing" there one Saturday night when he was suppose to be at "work" on one of the Ukrainian border crossings---but then mirhond would know who he was.

[AmericanPride]

The insurgency in eastern Ukraine will be the 11th conflict involving the Russian Federation since its formation in 1991. Notably, only one of these conflicts ended in clear defeat for Moscow (the First Chechen War) while one ended in a mediated settlement and another is still on going. That means seven (7) confirmed and two (2) possible victories for Russia out of 11 conflicts - not a bad track record. All of the conflicts involve territory to some extent and all involved a former Soviet republic or a political sub-unit. If using the accepted but admittedly arbitrary methodology of 1,000+ battle related military deaths in a year constituting a 'war', the Ukraine crisis has some ways to go.

Since 1991, the Russian Federation has not lost a single external conflict. Part of that is the deliberate decision to pursue limited, achieveable aims (centered on territory) and securing local military superiority against isolated adversaries (e.g. Georgia and Ukraine).

Other than all the issues brought up in the previous 80 pages, the major issue is that Russia is for the time being on the ascendent relative to the US, even if wide differences still exist in absolute economic capacity and absolute military capability. A string of local successes has given the Putin administration confidence and public legitimacy, moving Russia firmly past the chaos of the Yeltsin years. But the divergence between Russia's perception of its desired status and its ascribed status also signals that Moscow will continue to be assertive in the future, especially in the application of armed force to close that gap in its international position.

What does that mean for a Washington mired in bitter political infighting, degrading military capacity, and a self-imposed fiscal crisis?

[Firn]

@AP: While it is an interesting post, I'm not quite sure it belongs into this thread, as it is pretty much about Russia and the US-specific questions.

-------

It seems that today the Ukrainian armed forces have started a new offensive after the not so peacefule Ukrainian ceasefire finished. We will see how that goes, it is of course rather difficult to get a precise understanding through the usual fog of war. While there has been some military progress, some of the most densly populated areas of the country with millions of people are living in areas are out of state's control.

[AmericanPride]

@AP: While it is an interesting post, I'm not quite sure it belongs into this thread, as it is pretty much about Russia and the US-specific questions.

-------

It seems that today the Ukrainian armed forces have started a new offensive after the not so peacefule Ukrainian ceasefire finished. We will see how that goes, it is of course rather difficult to get a precise understanding through the usual fog of war. While there has been some military progress, some of the most densly populated areas of the country with millions of people are living in areas are out of state's control.

Firn: I admittedly and unashamedly take a US-centric view in nearly all things. :D So I view the Ukraine conflict through that prism and it means for the US and US-Russian relations. Clearly the attempt to legitimize the new government in Kiev through elections failed since the populations in the east are clearly dispute the authority of the state. This is a fundamental question of self-determination - who is entitled to it, under what conditions, and to what extent? It's interesting that there was free talk about dismantling Yugoslavia and now Iraq as if it's the obvious solution but the West does not seem interested in the same discussion on Ukraine.

[Stan]

Other than all the issues brought up in the previous 80 pages, the major issue is that Russia is for the time being on the ascendent (sic) relative to the US...

What does that mean for a Washington mired in bitter political infighting, degrading military capacity, and a self-imposed fiscal crisis?

Sorry, but did not see a link to those 80 pages. You mean the 80 or so herein ? Half of that I would just delete.

Degraded military capacity ? Got a link or is this conjecture ? The Russians are better and the Americans are degrading ?

Don't get where you're going herein :confused:

[AmericanPride]

Degraded military capacity ? Got a link or is this conjecture ? The Russians are better and the Americans are degrading ?

Not conjecture. Military capacity does not equal military capability - so while absolute US military capability increases with the introduction of every new weapon system (at least that's the assumption and I'll stick to that for now), it does not necessarily mean US military capacity is improving or even sustaining. By capacity, I mean the culminative capability to wage war effectively. The F-35 and F-22 programs are perfect examples. I discussed in this thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15483)how US purchasing power for military capabilities is actually degrading US military capacity. From that thread in 2012:


So how we measure relative combat power between, say, the 1973 aircraft and the 2012 aircraft is to find their ratio of cost-per-unit to how many units are active. The F-35 costs between 197 and 237 million dollars. One of the aircraft it will replace is the F-16, which cost 14 - 18 million dollars per unit. If we assume that the amount of combat power that a dollar can buy is fixed, then in order for the F-35 to be "worth it", it must provide at least 1,316% more combat power than the F-16. By anyone's definition of combat power, does it? The US has 2,230 F-16s, 335 A-10s, and 409 F/A-18s (the other two aircraft the F-35 will replace), for a total of 2,974 aircraft. The official plan is to buy around 2,400 aircraft. If we assume that to be the case (even though procurement has been both delayed and reduced because of cost of growth), and use the DoD/NATO definition of combat power, then even though the US intends to buy 20% less aircraft than current inventory, for now it is purchasing an equal or greater amount of combat power. For the US to replace F-16 combat power 1:1 (assuming the F-35 can provide 1,316% more combat power), the US must purchase at least 1,600 new F-35s.

The sequester has only intensified this problem because the cost per unit for weapon systems is increasing faster than the anticipated DoD budget, which means the absolute number of dollars (and therefore the purchaseable combat capacity) is decreasing. This has been partially offset by trimming personnel benefits but since operations and maintenance already consumes approximately 50% of the DoD budget and I think personnel takes about 10% in comparison (I'll have to double check), there's only so much that can be cut. And there's the added problem of increasing, not decreasing, security commitments.

The other problem is that in recent history the US has not been able to effectively tie together political aims with military means - so while it's awesome to have a handful of high powered combat systems, we don't know how to employ them in a way to achieve our political ends. We can debate if this is a political problem or military one but since some weapon systems now take upwards of 40 years to develop and field, I lean towards our inability to properly forecast threats and to synchronize long-term strategy with military development.

Are the Russians better? Depends on the metrics. If we compare conflict outcomes between 1991 - 2014, the Russians have won 7 of 11 conflicts (63.6%) with 2 on-going, and only one defeat (First Chechen War). In the same time period, the US fought in 8 conflicts with 5 clear victories (62.5%), one on-going and at least won I would argue is a defeat (Iraq). The on-going conflicts for Russia are Caucaus insurgency and eastern Ukraine insurgency, while the US conflict is Afghanistan. We know how Afghanistan is going to end, so it appears that in the near future, Russia will keep the better track record in conflict outcomes.

And here's the last problem: one of perception of relative power. Sure, there's concern about China's rapidly growing military capabilities, which implies that US military capabilities are not increasing fast enough (and they're not). Russia is also on the ascendent, flushed with confidence in the stability and limited achievements of the Putin administration. Even if Russia is a mile away in absolute capabilities, that's less important than if their relative power or growth of that power is increasing compared to the US. A survey came out today that stated a record 60%+ of Americans feel the US is headed in the wrong direction. Perceptions matter. Relative power matters. And Russia's relative power is growing. That's a problem.

[Stan]

This may have very little to do with this thread, but then, the current posts have little to do with much either :D


Not conjecture. Military capacity does not equal military capability - so while absolute US military capability increases with the introduction of every new weapon system (at least that's the assumption and I'll stick to that for now), it does not necessarily mean US military capacity is improving or even sustaining. By capacity, I mean the culminative capability to wage war effectively. The F-35 and F-22 programs are perfect examples. I discussed in this thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15483)how US purchasing power for military capabilities is actually degrading US military capacity. From that thread in 2012:

Yes, I recall the posts and follow on comments. I contend that it's 80% driver and 20% vehicle and all those fancy USAF toys do not increase capacity nor capability. Even if we have some fly boys that know how to use them. I agree with you... those defense contractor toys have little to do with our effectiveness, capacity and capability. That said, I don't see the decline in our capacity and capability save the fancy aircraft.


The sequester has only intensified this problem because the cost per unit for weapon systems is increasing faster than the anticipated DoD budget, which means the absolute number of dollars (and therefore the purchaseable (sic) combat capacity) is decreasing. This has been partially offset by trimming personnel benefits but since operations and maintenance already consumes approximately 50% of the DoD budget and I think personnel takes about 10% in comparison (I'll have to double check), there's only so much that can be cut. And there's the added problem of increasing, not decreasing, security commitments.

All that tells me is Obama finally got rid of those defense contractors and flying tub toys. Here's the link (http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense-Spending.html) and text similar to ....


The other problem is that in recent history the US has not been able to effectively tie together political aims with military means - so while it's awesome to have a handful of high powered combat systems, we don't know how to employ them in a way to achieve our political ends. We can debate if this is a political problem or military one but since some weapon systems now take upwards of 40 years to develop and field, I lean towards our inability to properly forecast threats and to synchronize long-term strategy with military development.

I love this part having served 23 years in Sierra holes.

Give me one example of when the military was effectively used to meet political aims.

You seem keen on military systems. I seem stuck on corrupt defense contractors with politicians feeding the frenzy. I guess we call it even !


Are the Russians better? Depends on the metrics. If we compare conflict outcomes between 1991 - 2014, the Russians have won 7 of 11 conflicts (63.6%) with 2 on-going, and only one defeat (First Chechen War). In the same time period, the US fought in 8 conflicts with 5 clear victories (62.5%), one on-going and at least won I would argue is a defeat (Iraq). The on-going conflicts for Russia are Caucaus insurgency and eastern Ukraine insurgency, while the US conflict is Afghanistan. We know how Afghanistan is going to end, so it appears that in the near future, Russia will keep the better track record in conflict outcomes.

Between you and outlaw, the Russkies won the war already. Metrics ? That's how we measure success these days :rolleyes:

[AmericanPride]

Stan,

I wouldn't say the Russians have won already. They won the opening round with the seizure of Crimea (who's talking about that anymore?) but we've also seen their limits. When the people of Donetsk held their own referendum similar to Crimea's about joining Russia, Moscow said no thanks (this also calls into question the theory that Russian intelligence services have been directing the opposition from day one). I don't think they have as nearly as much control as they would like, evidenced by the collapse of the Russian supported cease-fire because of continued insurgent provocations. That said, Russia is still in a stronger position than the US (and certainly Ukraine), and now it's just a waiting game. I think there's a couple of outcomes:

- Kiev eliminates insurgent threat. What does this do for Russian perception of its international standing and obligations to Russian speaking peoples?

- Kiev forms an actual unity government that's inclusive of political players from the Russian community.

- Washington and Moscow agree to partition in Ukraine.

- Kiev offensive loses steam and Ukraine becomes de-facto partitioned, and that's eventually institutionalized through cease-fires, self-governance, etc.

[kaur]

Special tourists from Russia to Crimea.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.novayagazeta.ru/&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnovaya%2Bgazeta%26client%3Dsafari%26h l%3Den%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D671

[Firn]

The Moscow Times (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/journalist-says-reporters-set-up-after-cameraman-killed-in-ukraine/502763.html) has more and a link on the incident.


A Forbes correspondent who was with a group of journalists that came under fire from a military base in eastern Ukraine has said the news crews were set up by separatists, leading to an incident in which a Russian television cameraman died.

Ahead of the Sunday night shootout that killed Channel One cameraman Anatoly Klyan, the press service of the separatist People's Republic of Donetsk called journalists and told them to assemble near the rebel administration building, Forbes correspondent Orkhan Dzhemal wrote Monday in an article posted on the magazine's Russian-language website.

A separatist rebel identified by his nom de guerre Gyurza, or Viper, addressed the gathering, telling reporters that they would travel with a group of Ukrainian women — [not]* the mothers of conscript servicemen — to a government military base whose commander had supposedly agreed to surrender to the rebels, Dzhemal wrote.

Keep in mind that heavily armed seperatists have used activists and civilians in the past to provide a cover for storming bases and buildings. In this case it is impossible to know how high up the trip organisation went and to which degree or at all the televised outcome was intended. Blunders happen in war, especially if one relies on the nice cooperation of the opponent. It is just sad how many have already died during the Russian intervention.

Overall the incident and the dead are 'just' a small facet of the current war. A political solution has of course to be found, but considering the low level of support enjoyed by the insurgents mostly set-up by the Kremlin it might be not that problematic. The difficulty of the military campaign for Ukraine depends of course to a considerable degree on the quantity and quality of Russian investment in it's war.


*A special bus was prepared for the journalists and for these women. And I must note, when I dug further into this story, the women were not the mothers of the soldiers who served on that base, as it was later announced. These were certain activists who had hung around the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers.


From the interpreter mag (http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-this-week-decree-confirms-dugins-dismissal-but-confusion-remains/#1614).

[Ulenspiegel]

Stan,

I wouldn't say the Russians have won already. They won the opening round with the seizure of Crimea (who's talking about that anymore?) but we've also seen their limits. When the people of Donetsk held their own referendum similar to Crimea's about joining Russia, Moscow said no thanks (this also calls into question the theory that Russian intelligence services have been directing the opposition from day one). I don't think they have as nearly as much control as they would like, evidenced by the collapse of the Russian supported cease-fire because of continued insurgent provocations. That said, Russia is still in a stronger position than the US (and certainly Ukraine), and now it's just a waiting game. I think there's a couple of outcomes:

- Kiev eliminates insurgent threat. What does this do for Russian perception of its international standing and obligations to Russian speaking peoples?

- Kiev forms an actual unity government that's inclusive of political players from the Russian community.

- Washington and Moscow agree to partition in Ukraine.

- Kiev offensive loses steam and Ukraine becomes de-facto partitioned, and that's eventually institutionalized through cease-fires, self-governance, etc.

The occupation of the Krim and maybe eastern parts of Ukraine is a strategic loss for Russia.

They have to spend valuable resources to get less than they had two years ago, while in contrast the opponents USA/EU have to spend from a practical point of view nothing.

We can discuss the wisdom of western governments to destabilize the Ukraine, IMHO it was a stupid move, however, the conclusion that Russia "won" is in my book funny, when Putin is obviously only minimizing losses.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems to be a disconnect in the Russian security advisor group around Putin---since it appears that slowly but ever so slowly the Ukrainian forces are pushing the Russian irregulars backwards---now Russia cannot seem to understand it is the Ukrainians doing the fighting and now they turn loose the massive Russia paranoia statements---it has to be/got to be those nasty American military advisors or worse Blackwater or Greystone crazy types---it cannot just be the Ukrainians alone defeating the irregulars as we felt they could not nor would not resist the "motherland".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2677613/American-military-advisers-masterminding-Ukraines-surge-against-pro-Russian-separatists-bid-expand-Nato-east.html

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---there is now a total of 12 T64RVs inside eastern Ukraine---seems those civilian trucks drivers did take the wrong turn.

Well at least they are 12 less that Russia should have destroyed under OCSE disarmament agreements which they have not done---still over 2000 to be destroyed---Russia signaled their intent to destroy three years ago but for some strange reason they were never destroyed.

Maybe three years ago they started the planning for the Crimea?

[davidbfpo]

Professor John Schindler draws attention to the appearance of 'brigades' in the Eastern Ukraine, a mix of the extreme right, nationalists and probably adventurers - surely not as they are well paid:http://20committee.com/2014/07/03/meet-russias-new-international-brigades/

[kaur]

Video about OSCE hostages in Ukriane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5iTlkr3SZ4

Who are the guys in the room? There are 4 OSCE observers (who are already at home today), DNR premier Borodai (PR guy) from Moscow, Borodai's deputy Phd guy Kavtaradze from Moscow, ataman of Russian Don cossacks Kozitsyn (Юридическим адресом Войска является: 346430, Российская Федерация, Ростовская область, город Новочеркасск, ул. Московская, д.70) and some more people. What says cossacks organisation устав?


1.2. Army carries out its activities in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the current legislation of the Russian Federation and this Charter, based on historical principles of self-government, equality and respect for members of the historical traditions of the Cossacks, and in accordance with the laws of those states, non-governmental organizations which are included in army.

1.3. The army is a legal entity with the state registration of the Statutes in accordance with established procedure, has separate property has its own balance, current and other accounts in banks, seal with its name, stamps, forms, certificates and other documents issued by the military leadership, as well as other historically formed Cossack symbols and paraphernalia used in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation and the traditions of the Cossacks


http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://vvd2003.narod.ru/ustavv.htm&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://vvd2003.narod.ru/ustavv.htm%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

What says RF laws about taking hostages?


Federal Law "On Combating Terrorism"

international terrorist activity - terrorist activities carried out:

terrorist action - direct commission of terrorist crimes in the form of an explosion, arson, threat or use of nuclear explosive devices, radiological, chemical, biological, explosive, toxic, poisonous, virulent, poisonous substances; destruction, damage or seizure of vehicles or other objects; encroachment on a state or public figure, representative of national, ethnic, religious or other groups; hostage-taking, kidnapping;

hostage - an individual captured and (or) button in order to force the state, organization or individual to do or abstain from doing any act as a condition for releasing the held party.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/17/30.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/17/30.html%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

Should those cossacks be sentenced in Russian court? That would be interesting to follow this court case :D

[Stan]

RB,
Honestly, with your background you certainly realize that Putin has been doing this for over a decade :rolleyes:

Checked out those defunct defense contractors lately ?


---it has to be/got to be those nasty American military advisors or worse Blackwater or Greystone crazy types---it cannot just be the Ukrainians alone defeating the irregulars as we felt they could not nor would not resist the "motherland".

[mirhond]

Video about OSCE hostages in Ukriane.

What says cossacks organisation устав?

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://vvd2003.narod.ru/ustavv.htm&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://vvd2003.narod.ru/ustavv.htm%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

What says RF laws about taking hostages?

Should those cossacks be sentenced in Russian court? That would be interesting to follow this court case :D

Legalistic Fallacy. Устав войска Донского is the worhless piece of paper without any legal stature. So, if cossacks take hostages on their own behalf on the territory of ahother state they are subjects to this respectful state laws.

[kaur]

mirhond, does Russia support kidnapping international observers by Russian paramilitary unit? If no, there must be joint manhunt together with Ukrainians going on. I don't see this kind of action. Then the answer is that Russia supports kidnapping of international observers by Russian citizens. For whole month Russian citizens/cossacks had hostages. Sounds bad, but after Crimea and methods Russia used there (green gentle people turned Russian soldiers, protesting peaceful Crimeans turned tourists from Moscow etc) nothing suprises me.

If Russia is not tolerating kidnapping, then there must be joint investigation with Russia and Ukraine, to find out who gave cossacks command.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_PWyhiDUrOk

This COM document shows that Russians proved to EU that they have no problems with international CT cooperation. Lets wait the results.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=156972&postcount=1516

mirhond, find the fallacy :)

[OUTLAW 09]

RB,
Honestly, with your background you certainly realize that Putin has been doing this for over a decade :rolleyes:

Checked out those defunct defense contractors lately ?

Stan---Putin has been doing this type of irregular warfare since his days as a KGB senior officer in the central KGB Dresden office----when the GDR was starting to unravel the KGB in Dresden began an undercover op to recruit "trustworthy" GDR citizens who could be put into government positions if the KGB/Soviet Army felt Honecker was going to far and needed to be "replaced"---sound familiar to the Crimea?

Mielke got wind of the op and called Putin for a "serious" sit down and the KGB backed down---two current German federal states are still working their way those Stasi documents attempting to root out who had been recruited as you well know the FSB will never let go of an identified sub agent.

All Defense Contractors are still doing relatively well since OCO funding is still flowing for AFG and now being diverted for the renewal in Iraq of ops.

Basically Putin has gotten away with everything as that red line in the sand that both Obama and the EU leaders stated several weeks ago has never been fulfilled by the Russians---and yet nothing from the EU/US outside of words in support.

The current irregular war in the eastern Ukraine will continue for another year or so at the guerrilla level as Putin is fully teed off about the Ukraine and EU Association agreements which he never wanted signed.

[kaur]

Outlaw:


The current irregular war in the eastern Ukraine will continue for another year or so at the guerrilla level

US FM says.

[kaur]

Donetsk Peoples Republic has premier from Russia, PR specialist Borodai.

Lugansk Peoples Republic has new premier from Russia since today, PR specialist Bashirov.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.bfm.ru/news/264035&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.bfm.ru/news/264035%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D425

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---here is a video link of more Russian T64s which apparently were driven over that "enhanced" Russian border security ---there is now about 1980 T64s still left in Russia that were to be destroyed so I guess more are coming.

So much for Putin stating that he has no "influence" on the separatists--that is not the message being sent via the tanks as they appear with Russian flags.

http://inforesist.org/en/a-convoy-of-tanks-with-russian-flags-drives-in-krasnodon-video/

[kaur]

Piontkovsky about Putin's choices in Ukraine.


Putin has few good choices in Ukraine, Piontkovsky says.

1. Backing off will offend Russian nationalists at home,

2. and more open support of the secessionists will lead to more sanctions from the West.

3. Consequently, he will likely try “a third variant,” one in which he will seek to entangle Kyiv in talks, “legitimize” the secessionists, and block Ukraine from “successfully developing according to the European model.”


http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/07/window-on-eurasia-putin-regime-has-no_8949.html


The Kremlin is at present concentrating its efforts on pressing for a prolonged ceasefire and “substantial negotiations” between the rebels and Kyiv—an arrangement that would give Putin leverage to keep Kyiv and the unruly Russian nationalist rebels under control, while containing Western influence in Ukraine and possibly inserting wedges into the transatlantic connection between the U.S. and EU. Moscow has been apparently influencing the rebels to scale down their demands and offering some tactical concessions to Poroshenko, while trying to sideline the U.S. and engage European powers as intermediaries (EDM, June 26).

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42586&cHash=922d949d90221570619b7a3a04caafa1#.U7bqYmIayS M


Luhansk People's Republic Appoints Russian Lobbyist to Head Council of Ministers

Bashirov joins a number of other representatives of the Russian business community with close ties to the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Kremlin insider Konstantin Malofeyev, the founder of Marshall Capital investment fund, has been linked to Russian rebel leader Igor Strelkov, Donetsk People's Republic head Denis Pushilin and Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the self-proclaimed republic.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/luhansk-peoples-republic-appoints-russian-lobbyist-to-head-council-of-ministers/503015.html

It seems that Putin is forcing his oligarhs to participate in his adventures. Once feudals had to give to king their soldiers, now oligarchs have to provide PR specialists :)

[davidbfpo]

Fighters loyal to the Donetsk People’s Republic, the separatist movement seeking unification with Russia, have held the town since April, defying repeated Ukrainian attempts to retake it.

In a disarmingly frank interview with Russian media on Friday, a visibly shaken Mr Girkin described the situation as desperate, and all but accused Russia of abandoning the rebels.



“My soldiers are dying everyday...[The fighters] are people who consciously took up arms to defend their language and their culture, to defend Russia..[But] Russia does not want to help them unify with their people. It is very difficult to accept that in nearly three months in Slavyansk practically no real help has reached us....we really need.


Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10947986/Ukraine-claims-victory-as-rebel-fighters-reportedly-flee-Slavyansk.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Legalistic Fallacy. Устав войска Донского is the worhless piece of paper without any legal stature. So, if cossacks take hostages on their own behalf on the territory of ahother state they are subjects to this respectful state laws.

mirhond---you have got to get rid of your hang up on using the word fallacy---actually you have a major fallacy and it is in your thinking itself.

Let's see---oh yes the OCSE observers were in fact requested by Putin to get active in the eastern Ukraine in order to support your fallacy that it is the Ukrainians who are killing civilians not Cossacks killing eastern Ukrainians--but hey that is your fallacy.

But then who has been "capturing the OCSE teams"---lets see was it the Ukrainian Army?, was it Martians?, was it those bad Ukrainian "fascists" you are always talking about?---Actually none of the above---it was those friendly proRussian freedom fighters who somehow accidently crossed that Russian "enhanced" border---but then Putin must be lying as the border was suppose to be secure so mirhond just how did they get across?

Your second fallacy is actually believing Putin really wanted the OCSE there at all--- because as they have done in their review of violations being committed in the east---- stated it is the Russian irregulars who are killing civilians not the Ukrainian Army---but hey that is your fallacy.

Another fallacy of yours is the belief you have that all those Russia T64s tanks that you "claimed" came your the Ukrainians were seen and videoed --coming from where?---again across that "enhanced and secured Russian border" so again Putin must have been lying that the border of the "motherland" is secure right?

With that secure of a border no wonder Russia has a jihadi problem--they seem to just walk across.

so mirhond when you use the word fallacy you yourself are open to the same argument---that you misuse the term all day long but then again that is what you get paid for is it not?

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---your "proRussian non fascist "freedom fighters" are going the wrong direction--back to Russia---is that not strange since April they have terrorizing Ukrainian citizens and robbing/plundering them as well and now when the fighting gets hard all those Cossacks are running where.

Were not all those Chechen and Cossack fighters battle hardened and military professionals?

I thought they were fighting to defend the Russian language from being destroyed by that Kiev Nazi junta and create the "New Russia"---was that not the term Putin used?---so why are they running for the Russian border?

Does that make sense in your fallacy world?

[Firn]

So almost all sources agree that Slovyansk and Kramatorsk have been liberated while I found no informations on further advances. First of all this good news for the citiziens who for the time being are able to live without getting shot by both sides and insurgents roaming houses and terrorizing parts of the population.

There is no doubt that over the last months the Ukrainian armed forces have been increasingly mobilized and prepared to fight but they also payed a considerable price in blood and material in their efforts. The opponents have been boosted by further Russian 'volunteers' and heavy weapons from Russia proper but have made little progress, if not regress at securing the support of most locals.

The big population centers, especially the Donetsk area are still de facto controlled by the insurgents and invaders so it is only a small step forward in military terms for Ukraine.

[BrentWilliams]

This was the news on the WSJ this morning.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-government-troops-target-further-gains-in-east-1404644564



Pro-Russia Rebels Prepare Last Stand in East Ukraine
Ukraine neared a final showdown with pro-Russia rebels, after Kiev forced insurgents to retreat to the last major cities they control and Moscow showed no signs of intervening to help them.

On Sunday, Ukraine said it plans to lay siege to Donetsk, a regional capital of one million residents that is the political and economic center of eastern Ukraine, and pursue rebels who fled there from Slovyansk, which had been the base of rebel military resistance in the region until government forces recaptured it over the weekend.



With that, one has to ask, was this largely right?

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/16/5717674/obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working


Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working
...
Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out.

A lot of that may have come from the targeted sanctions that Obama pushed for against individual Russian leaders and oligarchs. Those targeted sanctions did not themselves do much damage to the Russian economy. But, along with Russia's erratic behavior in Ukraine and the lack of clarity as to whether Europe and the US could impose broader sanctions, it appears to have been enough to scare off global investors — the big, faceless, placeless mass of people and banks who have done tremendous damage to Putin's Russia, nudged along by the US and by Putin himself.
...

[kaur]

Photos about pro-Russian Donetsk Republic meeting. In Donetsk there should live 1 million habitants.

http://vg-saveliev.livejournal.com/800023.html

Here are some ATGM and MANPAD missiles photos from pro-Russian former FSB guy Strelkov's base. In another post one anonymous separatist claimed that those ATGM missiles were not in working condition and were left there because of that.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.be/2014/07/blog-post_6.html

[Firn]

Sunday I spent a little time to look grosso modo at the military geography of the conflict. The situation has changed quickly in the central Donetzk Oblast and the maps are seemingly the work of amateurs and there is the ever present fog of war so those should only be taken as a rough guide. The conflict seems to be also heavily focused around cities and roads so the countryside is mostly left alone.


http://petrimazepa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/im-Donetsk-Luhansk02-07-14_oblasty1-620x784.jpg

This maps shows the various regional entities of the two contested Oblasts and was thus useful to estimated very roughly the number of people living in ares not under direct Ukrainian control.

https://www.redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/map-7-July.jpg

This shows broadly the recent advances on a topograhic map. In the North the frontline runs roughly along the Siversky Donets (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siversky_Donets). It marks for a considerable distance the state border.

I have looked at some others and there are sometimes considerable differences. However they are rather useful to get those rough numbers.

Perhaps the biggest take-away is that the Ukrainian state is currently not controlling areas in which live between 5-5.5 million citiziens. A bit less then half of that is living in occupied Crimea with its less then 2.4 million people. The other area covers parts of the Donetzk and Luhansk Oblasts with a population of somewhere between 2.6 and 3 million. Depending on the number of refugees those numbers could be lower by some margin.

Overall the speratists are 'controlling' the cities of an area holding around 1/15 of the pre-war Ukrainian population. Puts a good deal of the media reporting into perspective.


@kaur: Indeed, as usually small crowds and perhaps to a good degree paid, something regularly done under the fugitive ex-president. So far all points to rather weak popular support for the seperatists cause which of course doesn't mean that the others love the current Ukrainian government.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/07/03/coming_to_you_live_from_the_government_military_of fensive_in_eastern_ukraine

[Firn]

The short BBC article Ukraine crisis: Bridges destroyed outside Donetsk (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28191833) contains sadly only one location. In that case it is about on-third from Donetzk to Kostiantynivka, which was recently taken by the Ukrainian forces. Horlivka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horlivka) looks like an important short-term objective, as well as the Lysychansk area (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysychansk) another center of speratists activity which might feel increasingly isolated.

Perhaps the most important result of the recent offensive is that hundred thousends of Ukrainians can live and sleep in a more peaceful environment.

[mirhond]

obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working

Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

[Firn]

He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.


Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population. Kudos to him.

[kaur]

What a nice show! Russian high flying theatre director Kurginjan is visiting Donetsk and his only plan seems to be undremining Strelkovs authority. For backround, Kurginjan was one of the antiorange pro-Putin movement high ranking activists when Putin was reelected 2012.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16885446
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1q-h1O_mgI

Today he had hot discussion with DNR activist Gubarev (that Barkashov and Dugin follower) and DNR head of military staff. Kurginjan told about arms from Russia. He said sorry, that arms were old, but promised newer ATGM-s and MANPADS. DNR guys first denied Russian arms shipments, but later said that Slovyansk defenders got only 3 tanks and 3 BMP-s. Head of staff complained that ATGM missiles were old (should be disposed already 2001) and only 1 rocket from 4 worked. Gubarev added that some units are armed to the teeth with Russian arms, but they refuse to fight (???).

Russian arms part starts at 16:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNKV-zzcW9w

What is going on?!

[OUTLAW 09]

Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

http://inforesist.org/en/russia-changed-its-mind-to-develop-the-occupied-crimea-no-money/

mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/world/europe/aid-elusive-crimea-farms-face-hurdles.html?

so mirhond where is the "win"?

http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnaruzhili-sklad-boepripasov-pod-slavyanskom/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

"We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

"The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



Jul 14
Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-russian-passports-turned-out-to-be-invalid/

[mirhond]

Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population.Kudos to him.

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working
if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

[OUTLAW 09]

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

my ----mirhond a little sensitive are we?

ProRussians losing in the Ukraine, Crimean farmers not getting the promised support from Putin, Russian Passports issued in the Crimea not being valid because someone forgot to stamp and sign them, the Russian economy in a tailspin, Russian citizen arrested for being a wanted criminal hacker whose mother is a big Duma person?

AND---no budget for the Crimea-and food price increases of over 80%-wow what a victory for the proRussians in the Crimea-so it looks like Russia is broke correct mirhond?

And moreover mirhond--neither you nor the Russian media are no longer using the terms fascists, Nazi's or junta when talking about the Ukraine---what happen there my friend?

So since when are you the blog specialist as to what should and or should not be written here in response to your somewhat misleading comments and or the lack of comments.

You still never did answer the question ---you claimed the T64s were Ukrainian but now proven to be Russian and yet you do not admit you were wrong.

All you do is throw the word fallacy around in some sentences in order to appear academic like which you are not---correct mirhond?

Just another paid blogger by the FSB trying to make a name for himself after Russia "loses" New Russia".

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-russian-passports-turned-out-to-be-invalid/


mirhond---the question was unanswered so therefore the passports must be invalid since you are the Russian expert.

Would have thought your FSB employers would have at least allowed you to deny the article---strange is it not mirhond---you often have comments but then fail to answer a simple straight forward question.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

"We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

"The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



Jul 14
Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.

mirhond---you failed to answer this so I am assuming it to be correct that the Russian citizen was in fact an internationally known and wanted hacker who thought he could take a vacation unnoticed from the US Marshalls.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

http://inforesist.org/en/russia-changed-its-mind-to-develop-the-occupied-crimea-no-money/

mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/world/europe/aid-elusive-crimea-farms-face-hurdles.html?

so mirhond where is the "win"?

http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnaruzhili-sklad-boepripasov-pod-slavyanskom/

mirhond ---Again no responses from you so mirhond I am assuming the comments to be correct since you are the Russian expert here.

So again mirhond---a great Putin "win" is it?

[OUTLAW 09]

so mirhond as the Russian expert is the article correct that the Russian "war tourists" are getting a big salary increase just to keep them fighting?

I thought fighting for the honor of Russia and the "New Russia" would have been motivation enough---what happen mirhond for this sudden change of heart on the part of the "Russian war tourists".

As the Russian expert surely you have some thoughts or insights you would like to share with the other commenters---right?

http://inforesist.org/en/terrorists-are-promised-higher-salaries-for-treason/

[kaur]

Donetsk People's Republic activist Pavel Gubarev meets volunteers from Russia 8.07.2014. Men claim that they arrived through Moscow mobilisation centre.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R2GJn_l2Yf8

[Dayuhan]

So again mirhond---a great Putin "win" is it?

It's actually starting to look like a great Putin debacle, though he'll still be claiming credit for reclaiming Crimea.

It's actually a bit ironic. Not so long ago on this very thread we were beinmg told that Putin is a genius and Obama a fool, that Putin was in control and working Obama, and that unless the US leaped up and responded with all manner of dramatic moves, the Ukraine would be lost and all of Eastern Europe imperiled.

Seems it hasn't worked that way. The Russians seem more than ever disinclined to invade, and their proxies are retreating in disarray. Is it possible that the US really didn't need a dramatic response? That Obama may have actually had it right? That the prophets of doom here might have been... wrong??

[OUTLAW 09]

It's actually starting to look like a great Putin debacle, though he'll still be claiming credit for reclaiming Crimea.

It's actually a bit ironic. Not so long ago on this very thread we were beinmg told that Putin is a genius and Obama a fool, that Putin was in control and working Obama, and that unless the US leaped up and responded with all manner of dramatic moves, the Ukraine would be lost and all of Eastern Europe imperiled.

Seems it hasn't worked that way. The Russians seem more than ever disinclined to invade, and their proxies are retreating in disarray. Is it possible that the US really didn't need a dramatic response? That Obama may have actually had it right? That the prophets of doom here might have been... wrong??

Dayuhan--still a win for Putin as h established his doctrine of intervention to defend ethnic Russians wherever they reside and in whatever country.

Putin and his "radical nationalists advisors vastly underestimated the impact of some actually flawed sanctions thus the pull back.

BUT while he is struggling outwardly he is still pushing armed irregulars into Donetsk based on video footage still coming into the net and he is still pushing for a settlement that "allows" the Russian irregulars to "appear" to be winners---ie he states there must be talks before the arms are laid down and he is still trying to control the international responses from the international players ie that last meeting of the four FMs in Berlin which they spun as an iron clad legal document which it was not.

So even through outwardly appearances say one thing I still think he can book a major victory---and along the way verify his new military doctrine as well.

West has lost massively as the EU is slowly breaking up on the topic of the South Stream pipeline and both the EU and the US backed away from their threatened sectorial sanctions.

So really again those "hard" from Obama voiced sectorial sanctions uttered after the last U major meeting if Russia did not comply means what---another red line in the sand that went nowhere.

So I do not see where the US got anything out of being still---Russian irregulars are still fighting and weapons are still coming across that "enhanced" security border Putin promised.

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---outwardly losing but notice this article link---this is the third reporting of tactical armored units---that means fast moving Russian armor units being bought up close to the Ukrainian border.

http://inforesist.org/en/russia-transferred-two-tactical-battalions-to-the-border-with-ukraine/

Putin still really "wants" to place the Donetsk under the control of "peace keepers" to separate the ethnic Russians from alleged brutality by the Ukrainian Army against civilians---on top of the Russian DUMA releasing a White Paper on Ukrainian human rights violations.

Tactically did you notice the pullback of all Russian irregulars into the Donetsk area ---just in time to be "protected" by Russian "peacekeepers".

Now notice just how quiet it is with NATO on these movements as well as the EU and the US. There is some reporting out there of roughly 20K Russian troops now again close to the Ukrainian border just opposite of Donetsk.

By the way the 15th is a key Brigade as it doubles as trainer/observers when rating Russian exercises and is also their "peacekeeping BDE".

When they move sit up and take notice is all I can recommend---but no one is.

Putin is not finished---the question will be can his economy withstand another round of sanctions as it is now failing badly before he get his troops into Donetsk?

[kaur]

A Kremlin ‘Reset’ – Putin from ‘Defender of the Russian World’ to ‘Peacemaker’

July 10 – Russian public opinion “is being prepared for a change in Kremlin policy” toward Ukraine, Moscow commentators say, with central government media now downplaying the need for and utility of force and playing up the ways in which Vladimir Putin can serve as “peacemaker.”

---

Lev Gudkov, head of the Levada Center polling agency, says that Russian attitudes about Ukraine and the use of force are “really changing.” Most Russians aren’t yet that concerned about sanctions, but the most educated, informed and active are worried about where things may be heading.

“People are concerned,” he says, “that the situation in Ukraine is shifting out of control and they do not want to bear responsibility for that,” something they fear could happen if Russian forces were to cross into Ukraine overtly.

At the same time, the sociologist notes, “the anti-Ukrainian campaign is continuing,” but he adds that “the wave of euphoria is beginning little by little to decline and growing doubts, skepticism, concern and troubled thoughts are appearing: should citizens have to pay for all this?”

At the same time, Gudkov says, the Kremlin itself is worried about new sanctions and is “preparing an exit strategy,” one that will involve less a change in ultimate goals than in the presentation of “Putin as peacemaker,” as someone who wants to prevent “a humanitarian catastrophe.” That will only add to his standing in the polls.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/07/window-on-eurasia-kremlin-reset-putin.html

[JMA]

Not so long ago on this very thread we were beinmg told that Putin is a genius and Obama a fool, that Putin was in control and working Obama, and that unless the US leaped up and responded with all manner of dramatic moves, the Ukraine would be lost and all of Eastern Europe imperiled.

Not so fast...

Russia is still in control of Crimea... and the White House is once again frozen in indecision.

Remember I told you about the old Russian/Soviet move: Two steps forward, one step back.

They took Crimea and then threatened Eastern Ukraine. So when they stopped threatening Eastern Ukraine the idiots in the White House / DoS think they have scored a victory... forgetting in whose hands Crimea is.

Seems they got you... and Obama fooled.

(Steve, don't feel too bad, over Georgia Bush #43 folded as well.)

[Dayuhan]

Putin still really "wants" to place the Donetsk under the control of "peace keepers" to separate the ethnic Russians from alleged brutality by the Ukrainian Army against civilians

Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

What we know is that Putin has had troops positioned to intervene for months. He's had all the pretext he could ask for. The "rebels" have begged him to intervene. He hasn't. I don't know how that squares up with the assumption that he "really wants" Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk. If he really wanted them there, they'd have been there a long time ago.

This also seems inconsistent with that position:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10922531/Vladimir-Putin-revokes-Russias-mandate-for-use-of-military-force-in-Ukraine.html


Vladimir Putin has asked Russia's parliament to revoke a controversial law authorising him to use military force in Ukraine, in what appears to be a good will gesture as diplomats scramble to resolve the crisis in the country.


Now notice just how quiet it is with NATO on these movements as well as the EU and the US. There is some reporting out there of roughly 20K Russian troops now again close to the Ukrainian border just opposite of Donetsk.

Haven't similar movements back and forth been going on for months? Why would NATO suddenly make a big fuss over it now?

I'm sure Putin will continue sending men and equipment to help his proxies, though they appear to be increasingly incoherent, conflicted, and unable to establish any functional political apparatus. I see no reason to assume that he wants to send in troops. If he wanted that it would be a fait accomplii already, as it was in Crimea. Again, we don't know why he hasn't moved: fear of sanctions, fear of bogging down in an occupation role... all conjecture. What we know is that he could have done it a long time ago, and has not.


Dayuhan--still a win for Putin as h established his doctrine of intervention to defend ethnic Russians wherever they reside and in whatever country.

He's spoken the words, but he hasn't acted on them. His proxies are retreating in disarray, fighting with each other and losing faith in his promises... and that's a win? What would you call a loss?


Putin and his "radical nationalists advisors vastly underestimated the impact of some actually flawed sanctions thus the pull back.

If even those ridiculously minimal sanctions, and a few threats, could force him to pull back, then all he's done is advertise his own vulnerability. How is that a win?


BUT while he is struggling outwardly he is still pushing armed irregulars into Donetsk based on video footage still coming into the net and he is still pushing for a settlement that "allows" the Russian irregulars to "appear" to be winners---ie he states there must be talks before the arms are laid down and he is still trying to control the international responses from the international players ie that last meeting of the four FMs in Berlin which they spun as an iron clad legal document which it was not.

So even through outwardly appearances say one thing I still think he can book a major victory---and along the way verify his new military doctrine as well.

He can claim whatever he wants. What the world sees is that in May he looked set to seaize the Eastern Ukraine and possibly push across to Transnistria, cutting Ukraine off from the sea, and potentially threatening the rest of Eastern Europe... and today he looks set to settle for a bit of nebulously defined "influence" in Eastern Ukraine. Can't see that as a "win" in any sense.


West has lost massively as the EU is slowly breaking up on the topic of the South Stream pipeline and both the EU and the US backed away from their threatened sectorial sanctions.

How is that a loss? If the mere threat accomplishes the goal, what need is there for elevated sanctions?


So I do not see where the US got anything out of being still---Russian irregulars are still fighting and weapons are still coming across that "enhanced" security border Putin promised.

The predicted threat did not materialize and looks less likeley to materialize every day... and it's entirely possible that a more active response involving military threats would have made matters worse, not better. If anything Putin has underscored his own weakness by backing down in the face of very limited sanctions and a few vague threats of more extensive ones. Can't call it a 100% win for the West, of course, as Crimea is realistically gone, but if Ukraine manages to re-establish functioning sovereignty over the east it is certainly not the huge Russian win that was being predicted here not long ago.

[Dayuhan]

Also interesting...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/09/putin-ukraine-u-turn-explained


Putin's Ukraine U-turn: why it makes sense for Russia to allow Kiev victory

Eastern Ukrainian separatists have emerged as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest critics in the past few weeks.

Their pleas for Russia to intervene militarily have been ignored. Moreover, as they were pleading for help, Putin turned to his legislature and asked it to rescind his mandate to use military force in Ukraine.

This modest policy change in Moscow was reaffirmed in the Berlin agreement on 2 July, which called for a ceasefire and new talks aimed at resolving the conflict. The key element of the new agreement is strengthening control of the Russian-Ukrainian border amid the closure of border checkpoints and incidents of shelling on Russian territory from the Ukrainian side of the border. Kiev and Western governments are intent on sealing the border and cutting off the separatists’ supplies. If implemented, this will be an important gesture by Moscow amid Kiev’s stepped-up campaign of so-called anti-terrorist operations.

It is also noteworthy that the word “junta” has disappeared from Russian state media’s descriptions of the government of Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine and Russia have held new talks about gas deliveries and future plans for Crimea. In retrospect, the build-up of Russian troops along the border in recent weeks appears to have been a face-saving act, or even a hedge against the possible movement into Russia of fighters from eastern Ukraine.

Putin’s policy shift makes sense for a number of reasons...

[BrentWilliams]

It's actually starting to look like a great Putin debacle, though he'll still be claiming credit for reclaiming Crimea.

It's actually a bit ironic. Not so long ago on this very thread we were beinmg told that Putin is a genius and Obama a fool, that Putin was in control and working Obama, and that unless the US leaped up and responded with all manner of dramatic moves, the Ukraine would be lost and all of Eastern Europe imperiled.

Seems it hasn't worked that way. The Russians seem more than ever disinclined to invade, and their proxies are retreating in disarray. Is it possible that the US really didn't need a dramatic response? That Obama may have actually had it right? That the prophets of doom here might have been... wrong??

If there is a collapse in the East, does Ukraine consider Crimea. In other words, if in two weeks Ukraine foces have control of Donetsk, do they make any further actions to reclaime Crimea?

[OUTLAW 09]

Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

What we know is that Putin has had troops positioned to intervene for months. He's had all the pretext he could ask for. The "rebels" have begged him to intervene. He hasn't. I don't know how that squares up with the assumption that he "really wants" Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk. If he really wanted them there, they'd have been there a long time ago.

This also seems inconsistent with that position:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10922531/Vladimir-Putin-revokes-Russias-mandate-for-use-of-military-force-in-Ukraine.html





Haven't similar movements back and forth been going on for months? Why would NATO suddenly make a big fuss over it now?

I'm sure Putin will continue sending men and equipment to help his proxies, though they appear to be increasingly incoherent, conflicted, and unable to establish any functional political apparatus. I see no reason to assume that he wants to send in troops. If he wanted that it would be a fait accomplii already, as it was in Crimea. Again, we don't know why he hasn't moved: fear of sanctions, fear of bogging down in an occupation role... all conjecture. What we know is that he could have done it a long time ago, and has not.



He's spoken the words, but he hasn't acted on them. His proxies are retreating in disarray, fighting with each other and losing faith in his promises... and that's a win? What would you call a loss?



If even those ridiculously minimal sanctions, and a few threats, could force him to pull back, then all he's done is advertise his own vulnerability. How is that a win?



He can claim whatever he wants. What the world sees is that in May he looked set to seaize the Eastern Ukraine and possibly push across to Transnistria, cutting Ukraine off from the sea, and potentially threatening the rest of Eastern Europe... and today he looks set to settle for a bit of nebulously defined "influence" in Eastern Ukraine. Can't see that as a "win" in any sense.



How is that a loss? If the mere threat accomplishes the goal, what need is there for elevated sanctions?



The predicted threat did not materialize and looks less likeley to materialize every day... and it's entirely possible that a more active response involving military threats would have made matters worse, not better. If anything Putin has underscored his own weakness by backing down in the face of very limited sanctions and a few vague threats of more extensive ones. Can't call it a 100% win for the West, of course, as Crimea is realistically gone, but if Ukraine manages to re-establish functioning sovereignty over the east it is certainly not the huge Russian win that was being predicted here not long ago.

Dayuhan---here is the problem with your thinking analysis processes and actually JMA is correct.

What one "sees" is not what you "get".

I could actually go day by day the last two weeks and depict in detail that while you, EU and Obama "thinks" you are ahead---Putin has actually taken three steps forward and only a half step backwards.

He is in a race---namely does he get what he needs and wants and that is the New Russia ie the Donetsk before his economy tanks for a long while. Why Donetsk---it is where the bulk of all Russian military production which Russia needs for their 2020 rearming program is currently being produced and it would take Putin ten years to rebuild it inside Russia---he needs the Donetsk.

That is his race and we do not even see it---strange is it not? You honesty think Putin thinks for a single moment he is losing come on Dayuhan.

If you think for one moment those Russian "war tourists" or what I call irregulars are not being slid through a border that Putin "claims" was secure with the approval of the FSB ---check this link showing documents of a killed "Russian war tourist"---down to the Russian military unit he was assigned to.

http://inforesist.org/en/the-fate-of-a-russian-mercenary-in-the-donbas/

In the meantime no one is believing anything the EU, NATO and the US is actually saying any more while nothing has been done on the last threat of sanctions---meaning Putin had to fulfill four points inside one week and nothing was done---Putin is a great slight of hand specialist meaning he "shows" a hint of something and we in the West fall over backwards and yell hey it's working he is backing down---far from the truth.

He was to;
1. recognize the elections as fair---has he openly stated that--no
2. he was to fully recognize the current Ukrainian president---has he openly stated that to the world?---no
3. he was to stop the movement of armed irregulars and weapons across the Russian border and what did we get 20 T64s and more coming
4. he was to get the irregulars to lay down their weapons

Has any of that occurred?

As for the infowar---he fired his radial nationalist advisor Dugin to appear like he is backing off but the infowar is raring just as hard as before the firing---they are n o longer using the terms, Nazis, junta and more talk about civilians being killed and needing humanitarian aid and protection zones.

http://inforesist.org/en/us-showed-60-fakes-of-the-russian-media/

[mirhond]

If there is a collapse in the East, does Ukraine consider Crimea. In other words, if in two weeks Ukraine foces have control of Donetsk, do they make any further actions to reclaime Crimea?

Newly appointed Ukrainian Minister of Defence recently promised a Triumph in Sevastopol. I believe Putin can't wait for such a move to righteously crush invaders.

[BrentWilliams]

Newly appointed Ukrainian Minister of Defence recently promised a Triumph in Sevastopol. I believe Putin can't wait for such a move to righteously crush invaders.

Maybe.

Another interesting fallout will be(or not be) is NATO expansion. In five years, it will be ineresting to see if Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine have NATO membership.

[Stan]

...In five years, it will be ineresting to see if Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine have NATO membership.

Sweden and Finland ? (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140612/DEFREG01/306120040/Russia-Warns-Sweden-Finland-Against-NATO-Membership)


Finnish officials described the “Russophobia” claim, made by Putin’s senior political adviser, Sergei Markov, as “unfounded” and “alarmist,” while Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said the embedded meaning in Markov’s remarks smacked of a return by Russia to old school “Cold War intimidation.”

Don't dream, not happening !

[Stan]

If you think for one moment those Russian "war tourists" or what I call irregulars are not being slid through a border that Putin "claims" was secure with the approval of the FSB ---check this link showing documents of a killed "Russian war tourist"---down to the Russian military unit he was assigned to.

http://inforesist.org/en/the-fate-of-a-russian-mercenary-in-the-donbas/


Given the fact you claim the Russian military are advanced and capable, I would have a real problem with this article. Some SF dude infiltrated and took his real documents with him :D

I'm certain you have a good explanation for this and, I, am dying to hear it.

[kaur]

Dayuhan


Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

Some thoughts.


The three strategic objectives he has pursued in Ukraine since the February revolution overthrew his Ukrainian satrap, Viktor Yanukovich, are not likely to change. First, to punish, humiliate, destabilize, if possible, dismember and, ultimately, derail a Europe-bound Ukraine. Second, to prevent the West from imposing meaningful sanctions. And finally, to continue to solidify his domestic political base by rallying around the flag.


Thus, Putin is looking at three tactical options. The first, undoubtedly preferred, would be to reverse the battle by pouring “volunteers,” guns, ammo and military hardware across the border, all the while denying Russia’s involvement and calling for “peace” and “direct negotiations” between the thugs and the legitimate government of Ukraine, as well as a unilateral cease-fire by Kiev, which must stop “killing the innocent civilians.”

Another Putin choice is to call for an “international peace conference” where, in exchange for a cessation of hostilities, “guaranteed” by Russia, Germany, France and the U.S., Kiev would be forced to accept “federalization” of Ukraine. The country’s east-south would become essentially a Russian protectorate, tied to Moscow economically, politically, ideologically and culturally, and exercising, on the Kremlin’s command, a veto power over Ukraine’s further moves to the West.

The third option could be called a “Libya version.” Moscow could use Western “interference” in Libya as a “precedent” to move regular troops and aircraft into Ukraine and to fully occupy the region, declaring that Ukraine is now in the “throes of a fratricidal civil war.”

http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/putins-tactical-pause/#mbl

News from Donetsk. Vice premier of DNR in security question is now former head of Transnistria KGB (1992-2012). In 2012 he left to Russia.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://rusvesna.su/news/1405007792&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://rusvesna.su/news/1405007792%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D425

[Dayuhan]

What one "sees" is not what you "get".

I could actually go day by day the last two weeks and depict in detail that while you, EU and Obama "thinks" you are ahead---Putin has actually taken three steps forward and only a half step backwards.

What exactly were those steps, and where have they gotten him?

What I see is that some people here who are personally invested in the idea of an ascendent Russia and the West in retreat are very eager to cling to that construct.


He is in a race---namely does he get what he needs and wants and that is the New Russia ie the Donetsk before his economy tanks for a long while. Why Donetsk---it is where the bulk of all Russian military production which Russia needs for their 2020 rearming program is currently being produced and it would take Putin ten years to rebuild it inside Russia---he needs the Donetsk.

That is his race and we do not even see it---strange is it not?

A race against what? If he wants Donetsk, all he has to do is take it, as he took Crimea. He could do it today. He could have done it months ago. He hasn't, which suggests that either he doesn't want it all that badly or he's concerned about potential consequences.


You honesty think Putin thinks for a single moment he is losing come on Dayuhan.

It would be silly for anyone here to speculate on whether or not Putin thinks he's winning or losing. No way to know what he thinks.


If you think for one moment those Russian "war tourists" or what I call irregulars are not being slid through a border that Putin "claims" was secure with the approval of the FSB ---check this link showing documents of a killed "Russian war tourist"---down to the Russian military unit he was assigned to.

We all know they are there. Are they winning?

The Ukrainian government could still blow it, of course, if they lay siege to Donetsk and create a bloodbath. I don't think they are that stupid, though. If they can back the rebels into a few urban centers they can hold up, offer a conditional amnesty that would send the Russians back to Russia without consequence and give the local irregulars a way out that does not involve urban warfare.

We'll see soon enough, but surely you notice that all the talk about how Putin is bound to seize all of eastern Ukraine and link up with Transnistria has completely evaporated.

[Ulenspiegel]

outlaw,

if you use the situation in 2012 as starting and reference point, you have real trouble to explain where Russia won.

Russia is actually paying for less she had in 2012, this is not a gain, especially when your opponent can use asymmetric economic warfare to hurt you. An occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine would increase the problems, a cynic would actually hope for it.

Putin is minimizing losses, sorry.

[JMA]

The annexation of Crimea for one. This is now part of Russia and not part of a neighbouring state which was increasingly difficult to dominate.


outlaw,

if you use the situation in 2012 as starting and reference point, you have real trouble to explain where Russia won.

Russia is actually paying for less she had in 2012, this is not a gain, especially when your opponent can use asymmetric economic warfare to hurt you. An occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine would increase the problems, a cynic would actually hope for it.

Putin is minimizing losses, sorry.

[mirhond]

The Ukrainian government could still blow it, of course, if they lay siege to Donetsk and create a bloodbath. I don't think they are that stupid, though. If they can back the rebels into a few urban centers they can hold up, offer a conditional amnesty that would send the Russians back to Russia without consequence and give the local irregulars a way out that does not involve urban warfare.

Actually they are that stupid - Kievan authority promised to surround and blocade Donetsk and Lugansk. I won't be bloodbath, it will be surrender by starvation.

[JMA]

We'll see soon enough, but surely you notice that all the talk about how Putin is bound to seize all of eastern Ukraine and link up with Transnistria has completely evaporated.

Yes Putin had the US, Germany and the EU in a state of panic over what they thought Putin's next move would be.

His first step was Crimea, the second was the threat to what you mention.

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

I guess he is judging his moment to repeat the two steps forward.

[Ulenspiegel]

The annexation of Crimea for one. This is now part of Russia and not part of a neighbouring state which was increasingly difficult to dominate.

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

[OUTLAW 09]

Newly appointed Ukrainian Minister of Defence recently promised a Triumph in Sevastopol. I believe Putin can't wait for such a move to righteously crush invaders.

mirhond---since you claim to be a Russian expert------you do realize that all the current sanctions in place against he Russian economy and elite Russians have cause massive damage to your economy---right mirhond?

Read the fine print they remain in place until the Crimea is returned which means sometime in 2015/2016 the Russian economy will be destroyed as it cannot continue for that long under the sanctions as it is now struggling even with the limited sanctions in place.

Not all the kind words you have for Putin nor his own "kind" words will remove the sanctions until the Crimea is returned.

Next it appears the Ukraine will the legal case against Russian for the annexation of the Crimea which will then "allow" the Ukraine to literally seize ships, plane, goods, bank accounts anywhere in the world to repay the damages caused by the Russian annexation---which is in the billions of dollars.

Oh and by the way the Crimea economy is tanking and the cost of food is now 78% higher under Russia than under the Ukraine---wonder why?

So who is crushing who---mirhond?

[OUTLAW 09]

Given the fact you claim the Russian military are advanced and capable, I would have a real problem with this article. Some SF dude infiltrated and took his real documents with him :D

I'm certain you have a good explanation for this and, I, am dying to hear it.

Advanced and capable does not preclude stupidity---evidently the Russian SF does not believe in going in clean ---hey this is the old concept in Eastern Europe anyway---when one crosses an official border you might never know if you need your passport to cross back over---right--he was just being a little to pro-active and it got him killed.

[Firn]

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

I agree. A key to understand the current crisis is that the personal goals of Putin and Russia aren't necessarily the same, to put it midly. This is true even if there is no doubt that for now, after massive propaganda campaigns, the Kremlin leader has a very strong popular backing.

PewGlobal (http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/09/russias-global-image-negative-amid-crisis-in-ukraine/) has some interesting new polls:


More than seven-in-ten Ukrainians also express disappointment with Putin. Broad majorities of Ukrainians in the west (89%) and the east (66%) express no confidence in Russia’s president, while just 5% of residents of Crimea say the same. About half of Russian-only speakers (51%) in the east lack confidence in Putin’s foreign policy compared with 43% who say they trust him.



Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Russia also have changed significantly over time. Six-in-ten in Ukraine rate Russia unfavorably today, compared with just 11% in 2011, the last time the question was asked. Within Ukraine, there are deep divides by region and language. More than eight-in-ten in the country’s west (83%) give Russia low marks, compared with 45% in the east and only 4% in Crimea. Within the east, Russian-only speakers (28%) are less negative toward Russia than their neighbors (58%).2

It strongly supports the comment of many that almost all of Ukraine will be lost for quite some time for Russia as friend and partner. The aspect of the minority of the minority of Russian-only speakers which trust Putin is of course interesting.


But another survey, published by Ukraine's Razumkov Center last week, makes unhappy reading for the Russian President. The Razumkov pollsters said 54 percent of Ukrainian people want their country to join Nato, with just 32 percent against.

P.S: Good to see oversampling in the East and Crimea, given their smaller size. Russian-only speakers tend of course to be over-rappresented as they are considerable more urban then bilinguals.


Country: Ukraine
Sample design: Multi-stage cluster sample stratified by Ukraine’s six regions plus ten of the largest cities – Kyiv (Kiev), Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Lviv, Kryvyi Rih, Lugansk, and Mikolayev – as well as three cities on the Crimean peninsula – Simferopol, Sevastopol, and Kerch
Mode: Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages: Russian, Ukrainian
Fieldwork dates: April 5 – April 23, 2014
Sample size: 1,659
Margin of error: +/-3.3 percentage points
Representative: Adult population (Survey includes oversamples of Crimea and of the South, East and Southeast regions. The data were weighted to reflect the actual regional distribution in Ukraine.)

[Stan]

Advanced and capable does not preclude stupidity---evidently the Russian SF does not believe in going in clean....

Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.

Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.

[Firn]

More abductions, torture seen in separatist-held eastern Ukraine is an article (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/more-abductions-torture-seen-in-separatist-held-eastern-ukraine-355674.html) based on multiple sources which shouldn't surprise nobody which informed himself from time to time.


While definitive statistics on abductions are hard to come by, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry has reported some 500 cases since the onslaught of the conflict in April. The Amnesty report says that the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission for Ukraine recorded 222 abduction cases in that time.

Human rights observers say the kidnappings by the rebels are meant to intimidate the local population. But hostages are also being kept and used as human shields, locked away in rooms of rebel-occupied buildings to keep Ukrainian forces from striking them by air and bombarding them with heavy artillery, observers say. Others are held for ransom.

On June 24, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic warned that the situation in eastern Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating.” Three weeks on, Amnesty International says the situation is only worsening.

"The bulk of the abductions are being perpetrated by armed separatists, with the victims often subjected to stomach-turning beatings and torture," Amnesty's Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director Denis Krivosheev said, adding that there is also "evidence of a smaller number of abuses by pro-Kyiv forces."

Human right abuses get committed in practially every conflict and in this case it is pretty selfevident why payed thugs organized in an ad-hoc fashion with criminal interests intertwined with a political campaign mostly based on terrorism and hatred are responsible for most crimes and the most vicious at that.

Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.

[Dayuhan]

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of the Ukraine ends up under a pro-western government.


He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

How is that understandable? If he sees himself faced by weakness and gutlessness, wouldn't the logical move be to take what he wants and establish a fait accomplii, as he did with Crimea? What does he gain by waiting? Not as if things have been going his way in the meantime.

[mirhond]

[QUOTE]
Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.

During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.

[Ulenspiegel]

During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.

The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.

Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.

The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.

[kaur]

All Is Not Well in Novorossiya
From Moscow to Donetsk, Russia's resurgent revanchists are turning against each other. Are Ukraine's pro-Russian firebrands too hot for Russia?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/11/all_is_not_well_in_novorossiya_ukraine_strelkov_pu tin_donetsk

Ukraine Determined to Avoid the “Frozen-Conflict” Paradigm

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42611&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=f6617a62a1c2531f91ff556ce6166f5b#.U8ECLmIayS M

Russia’s Actions in Ukraine: Parallels with Other “Hot Spots” of the Former Soviet Union

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42613&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=18ce4dc6c95516aa7fa61b68554458fb#.U8ECeGIayS M

[Ulenspiegel]

Yes Putin had the US, Germany and the EU in a state of panic over what they thought Putin's next move would be.

His first step was Crimea, the second was the threat to what you mention.

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

I guess he is judging his moment to repeat the two steps forward.


To your surprise maybe, good strategy is developed and executed in cold blood with brain, guts, especially, testicles are no substitute. :-)

You have not delivered one coherent argument yet why the current strategic setup is a loss for the west. Hint, a good strategy emphasise own strengths and exploits at best at the same time the weaknesses of your opponent, that actually happens. The PR could be better, however, sunstance is more than ok.

Minor point, you obviously do not understand that the country which could put the Russians really between a rock and a hard place is not Germany, but the UK.

[mirhond]

The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.

Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.

The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.

Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.

[kaur]

Unbelivable how Russian tank factory's blogger explains sitation to his readers. Workers of this factory went once to Moscow to protect Putin from orange revolution. Brigadier of one of the depatments became representative of huge Ural admisistrative region. There is no doubt, that somebody is covering his ass.

Sorry for Google translate, hope you'll get the point :)


Moreover, please look at the situation with unrecognized East Ukrainian republics (the actual area) with the other hand. Let's compare what is happening in Ukraine, with what happened in Russia in 1994-2000,. I'm talking about Chechnya!
93god 1991 - Russia's political crisis, the Emergency Committee, Parliament shot - why not Maidan? Only more global scale. The analogy is appropriate in any case.
####October 27, 1991 Dudayev was elected (!) President of the Chechen Republic. Parliamentary elections were held simultaneously Chechen Republic. His first decree of November 1, 1991 Dudayev declared independence Chechen Republic of Ichkeria from the RSFSR, which was not recognized by any Russian authorities, nor any foreign countries. Is not it - the situation with both 1x1 Novorussia? The Congress of People's Deputies formally pleaded not this election, as they have been in violation of applicable laws. Again 1x1 as now in Ukraine. Kiev legally (!) Elected government does not recognize the referendum Donbass, and probably rightly so. Some have questioned the legitimacy of elections Poroshenko under the pretext that the south-east in the election did not participate. And Chechnya took part in the election of Yeltsin in 1996 and Putin's 2000th? No! All exactly the same as it is now in the Ukraine! But somehow we, Russians, and patriots in particular, almost unanimously supported Putin in his call "Drown in the toilet" Chechen separatist terrorists and Poroshenko exactly the same as we call a fascist and compare with Hitler. With a frightened, exactly? Poroshenko - legally elected president of an independent state, and he is obliged to take all necessary measures to preserve the integrity of their country. Let us remember how Putin "Pinocchio" Komsomolsk burned. Why him for it no one calls a war criminal and no one threatens him with a new Nuremberg unlike Poroshenko? Or what's the difference between Raduev and light, well, if, of course, abandon our Great Russian nationalist prejudices? In practice it turns out that no! Do not try anyone of anything and nothing to convince approve. Just ask think to include brains, and remove the ears propaganda noodles, which we now actively hang on both conflicting parties.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.be/2014/07/blog-post_12.html

Plan B seems to be frozen conflict scenario. Russia feels very comfortable in those sitations.

[JMA]

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Are you saying you don't understand the importance to Russia of the access to the Black Sea afforded by bases in Crimea? I would suggest they are prepared to pay... and with the annexation it will make it that much more difficult for Russia to hand Crimea back.

It seems that the patheticly weak response from the US and Germany to the annexation will serve to embolden Russia (as did the pathetic response from the West to the Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008). When will Russia make its next move? Not a matter of if, rather one of when.

When Ukraine promised to take Crimea back the Russians threatened to use nukes (http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-strikes-over-crimea/). That got the urine flowing on the White House floor again and the Germans no doubt making promises of no more sanctions.

Game, set and match to Russia.


Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

I am no suggesting that Putin is the master strategist. Maybe his critics are correct that he is taking a short term view. It is not like he has any opposition... Obama and Frau Merkel's Germany are a joke. He has two years left of Obama... he can operate with much freedom, even a challenge to NATO (he would probably get away with).


Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

Ukraine was drifting away from Russia anyway (for good historical reasons) and Putin would have seen that. Putin would be smart enough to realise that there is no military threat from Ukraine and Europe (although he may play to the Russian audience in this regard).

[JMA]

Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.

You are correct... Ulenspiegel is obvoiusly not on the top of his game today.

[JMA]

To your surprise maybe, good strategy is developed and executed in cold blood with brain, guts, especially, testicles are no substitute. :-)

You have not delivered one coherent argument yet why the current strategic setup is a loss for the west. Hint, a good strategy emphasise own strengths and exploits at best at the same time the weaknesses of your opponent, that actually happens. The PR could be better, however, sunstance is more than ok.

Minor point, you obviously do not understand that the country which could put the Russians really between a rock and a hard place is not Germany, but the UK.

I would suggest to you that the annexation of Crimea by Russia is a big win for Russia. The western loss is that they - in this case - the US and Germany to be impotent and unable to restrain Russian territorial aggression.

Who are you trying to lecture?

Russia has made a move - even when not militarily in great shape which says more about the US and Germany than Russia - and the West have proved to be impotent. Russia has exploited the weakness in potential opponents with their current limited strength. That is not too difficult to understand is it?

The UK? Really? I suppose you are able to explain that?

[Firn]

A more recent map, the Ukrainian cyrillic script shouldn't pose much of a problem.

http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/files/2014/RNBO_map_11_07.jpg

As I have written before the Lysychansk hub with a normal population around 350.000 seems to get increasingly isolated by the Ukrainian forces. Liberating such a densly populated area would greatly reduce the amount of citiziens living in what is to a good degree a reign of terror and crime.

Difficult to know from my perspective, but to me it seems that securing the borders does have a higher priority for the Ukrainians then taking the fight at once to Luhansk and Donetsk. At least most of the casualities come from border areas and some military progess too. There seem to be good reasons for such a focus:

1) The 'Grad' strike which created many military casualties underlines how important it is to stop at least heavy weapons like tanks and additional artillery supply coming from Russia. At least they are harder to smuggle then Manpads and ATGM once the border area gets secured.

2) Russian 'volunteers' will also have a bit harder time to get in and might fear that they won't get home that easily. Even if the 'frontline' seems to be rather porpous the risk to get killed or captured will be increased. Ideally this means that a good deal try to leave foreign land and go home as quickly as possible.

3) The civilians have more time to leave the cities and bring themselves in safety which means a lower risk of civilian casualities by combat and seperatist atrocities.

There has been certainly made considerable progess and for now the three largest broder crossings seem to be under Ukrainian control. Still it would surprise me if there still wouldn't be a constant influx of Russian war material into Ukraine, be it over the flat open countryside or the Seversky Donets.

Lots of fog of war of course and many unkowns. We will see.

[BrentWilliams]

A more recent map, the Ukrainian cyrillic script shouldn't pose much of a problem.

http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/files/2014/RNBO_map_11_07.jpg

As I have written before the Lysychansk hub with a normal population around 350.000 seems to get increasingly isolated by the Ukrainian forces. Liberating such a densly populated area would greatly reduce the amount of citiziens living in what is to a good degree a reign of terror and crime.

Difficult to know from my perspective, but to me it seems that securing the borders does have a higher priority for the Ukrainians then taking the fight at once to Luhansk and Donetsk. At least most of the casualities come from border areas and some military progess too. There seem to be good reasons for such a focus:

1) The 'Grad' strike which created many military casualties underlines how important it is to stop at least heavy weapons like tanks and additional artillery supply coming from Russia. At least they are harder to smuggle then Manpads and ATGM once the border area gets secured.

2) Russian 'volunteers' will also have a bit harder time to get in and might fear that they won't get home that easily. Even if the 'frontline' seems to be rather porpous the risk to get killed or captured will be increased. Ideally this means that a good deal try to leave foreign land and go home as quickly as possible.

3) The civilians have more time to leave the cities and bring themselves in safety which means a lower risk of civilian casualities by combat and seperatist atrocities.

There has been certainly made considerable progess and for now the three largest broder crossings seem to be under Ukrainian control. Still it would surprise me if there still wouldn't be a constant influx of Russian war material into Ukraine, be it over the flat open countryside or the Seversky Donets.

Lots of fog of war of course and many unkowns. We will see.

The conflict seems to be fueled by a Russian UW campaign. Boarder to stop Russian support should be the primary military aim.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.

Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.

Stan---what is and has not died is the eastern European is the belief that one must have a passport in order to cross borders or if need be prove that one is a Russian citizen thus it is not so strange that Russian irregular fighters carry passports---if in fact he was Russian SF which I do not believe he was---he definitely would have gone in clean but then the Ukrainian SBU has picked up GRU types carrying Russian passports.

So they are simply in the hectic of trying to get more irregular fighters into the Ukraine just sloppy.

[OUTLAW 09]

A really deeply telling article if correct as it is the first Russian admission that Russia is supplying new advanced weapons in large numbers into the Donestk region sine 3 Jul.

The question is why? Or is Putin all in now for an open UW fight?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/11/all_is_not_well_in_novorossiya_ukraine_strelkov_pu tin_donetsk

[mirhond]

When Ukraine promised to take Crimea back the Russians threatened to use nukes

Nope, they didn't. Lavrov's speech doesn't contain word "nuclear". Besides, Ukropian army isn't fit to hold a candle to Russian one.

[Ulenspiegel]

@JMA

Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia. It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.

An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.

Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)

Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".

Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.

[JMA]

Nope, they didn't. Lavrov's speech doesn't contain word "nuclear". Besides, Ukropian army isn't fit to hold a candle to Russian one.

Yes... they don't need to use the word to make the point. Russia is the bully boy of the region, that is why I suggested that the US should offer to supply Ukraine with tactical nukes - they will use them and make Russia pay a heavy price for any future adventurism.

[JMA]

@JMA

Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia.

Understandable move to grab Crimea now when the US is weak and Germany won't do anything rather than wait. Now was the time. Putin got it right.


It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.

Yes, Ukraine for historical reasons is not a natural ally of Russia. Putin I suppose recognised this and took care of the Crimea issue.


An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.

Yes, if I were looking for an excuse for my country's gutlessness I would make that argument as well.


Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)

"Weak"? Well maybe in the case of Germany it was a case of not being prepared to pay the cost of punishing Russia.

So we turn to Churchill to understand the German position:


An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. -
Winston Churchill

But then again I can't read Putin's mind as you seem to believe you can. So tell me what he is thinking now and what made him change.


Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".

There are different levels of strategy, some provide short term results but long term catastrophic failure - like germany in WW1 and WW2 - and other result in long term gains not initially obvious. Take your pick.


Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.

As a German I assume you have learned from the errors of your past... but don't lecture me, lecture Putin.

[kaur]

Ulenspiegel, as far as I understand for Russian elite this is not problem paying more. They just have to increase their income to pay more to afford geopolitical Faberge eggs.

Last time EU tried to solve military conflict 2008. French president Sarkozy signed with Russians peace plan. To remember the details

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=33897&no_cache=1#.U8Juq2IaySM

In less than two months later French foreign minister signalled to Russia to continue business as usual.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34068&no_cache=1#.U8JvyGIaySM

From this Jamestown article we can jump directly to that fresh column.

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=56021

After Carnegie story you should read this one.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/pirelli-names-rosneft-chairman-igor-sechin-to-board-1405072159

It is very suitable to end this post with quotin Lenin "'The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them".

Ps I hope that somebody put words to Lenin mouth and reality is different.


Here is what Mr. Annenkov claims he copied from notes in Lenin's handwriting, italics in the original: ''To speak the truth is a petit-bourgeois habit. To lie, on the contrary, is often justified by the lie's aim. The whole world's capitalists and their governments, as they pant to win the Soviet market, will close their eyes to the above-mentioned reality and will thus transform themselves into men who are deaf, dumb and blind. They will give us credits . . . they will toil to prepare their own suicide.''

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/12/magazine/on-language.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Nope, they didn't. Lavrov's speech doesn't contain word "nuclear". Besides, Ukropian army isn't fit to hold a candle to Russian one.

come on Russian expert mirhond---what a broken record---this is the same Russian Army that sends in Russian SF carrying their own passports and they get killed and have those passports on them, the same Russian Army that "somehow" misplaced 25 T64 tanks that were to be destroyed under the OCSE regime, the same Russian Army that drove Grads to the Ukrainian border parked them and then did what---walked away, the same Russian Army that yesterday admitted to sending advanced weapons into the Ukraine since 3 Jul, the same Russian Army that somehow cannot secure even the Russian/Ukrainian Army after being told to do it by Putin himself.

so come on Russian expert mirhond--we are talking about the same Russian Army---right?

Or maybe Russian expert mirhond the Russian Army you are talking about is lost somewhere on the Chinese border using a map and compass to find St. Petersburg?

[OUTLAW 09]

A really deeply telling article if correct as it is the first Russian admission that Russia is supplying new advanced weapons in large numbers into the Donestk region sine 3 Jul.

The question is why? Or is Putin all in now for an open UW fight?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/11/all_is_not_well_in_novorossiya_ukraine_strelkov_pu tin_donetsk

Russian expert mirhond---noticed you failed to respond to this article which in fact states that yes Russia is providing advanced weapons to the "Russian freedom fighters" in the Donetsk.

I thought as a Russian expert you had often stated the Russian "freedom fighters" were getting the weapons from corrupt Ukrainian SGTs---that was what you did say ---right mirhond---seems you forgot what you had previously stated about 1000 entries ago---it is hard to get up with ones own comments is it not mirhond?

so if you read the article it appears that;

1. weapons are getting to Russian freedom fighters through corrupt Russian "civilians" but is that a hidden term for the Russian military?---but wait they are not on the border nor "selling weapons" --right mirhond?
2. that the Russian left hand does not know what the Russian right hand is doing
3. or simply Putin is lying to the world

so Russian expert mirhond which of the three items is it or maybe it is all three--so Russian expert mirhond pick one if you can which I know you will not respond to because the article clearly shows Putin is either lying or not in control of the Russian government.

And I know comrade would not admit to that would you?

[OUTLAW 09]

@JMA

Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia. It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.

An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.

Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)

Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".

Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.

Ulenspiegel---a simple basic question that I do not see often answered concerning the Crimea and the current Russian view towards the Crimea.

Correct me if I am wrong but who in fact "gave" the Crimea "away" and was it not done under a "communist" leader in a "communist legal fashion" in the beginning of say 1954 which if I recall the Soviet Union was still wading through "Stalinism" was it not?

So are we saying that a "communist" country led by not so softie "Communist Party fine tuned in the Stalin days " using "communist" legal terms somehow got it "wrong"?

So now it is up to the Ukraine and the West to do what "take a time out and stand in the corner" and allow another former "communist ie KGB COL" a chance for a "redo" of history say "60" years later?

Does that makes sense to you?

I have not noticed a single German political leader nor a single German newspaper actually challenge the above statement---meaning-- are we the West to give Russia a chance to redo history all because someone in the former Soviet Union who was a "valid leader" "made a stupid 1954 mistake" in the "eyes" of the current 2014 Russian leader?

Is that not what the current Putin argument really is all about if one really reads his statements---a chance to correct in his eyes "a stupid Communist mistake from 1954". So are you in fact stating that the "stupid West who said nothing in 1954" should in fact stand to the side and allow another "stupid mistake in 2014 to be made again"?

Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.

You do realize that is exactly what Putin is saying about the Crimea and you do realize the West is allowing a complete "redo" of history just because a single person feels his nose is disjointed by a former Communist leader who he never knew because he was not born in those times although he himself was a Communist so one might think he would have empathy for that historical time period of the Soviet Communist Party?

But again I have never heard and or seen written anywhere that Putin ever revoked his Communist Party membership and the Party still survives so maybe he is a "hidden member still"---or has anyone writing here seen such a revocation notice?

[Firn]

Coming from a rather large shopping Russian tour (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxiaVZ7mDuA), driving into Ukrainian land...(Added YouTube clip has been removed by owner)

Wasn't there something of a EU/USA red line about Russian tanks invading Urkaine? It is all well that Putin continues to shoot into Russias goal but a bit of consistency and harsher sanctions might have prevented much current and future bloodshed. Not only in Ukraine, but also when another power might want to tests certain lines.

P.S: In other videos you see VW T5 with long wheel base riding along, good taste I have to add. Would be convenient means of transport for specialists or VIPs from various 'internal' Russian services.

[OUTLAW 09]

Watch the words from Putin yesterday coming out of Brazil---he is just a tad short of marching in within the next 3-4 days as his rhetoric is climbing in a way not seen before.

IMO he has now begun to believe there will be no further sanctions thus he can now move into the eastern Ukraine under the guise of "peacekeeping".

[JMA]

IMO he has now begun to believe there will be no further sanctions thus he can now move into the eastern Ukraine under the guise of "peacekeeping".

He is probably correct.

[JMA]

It is very suitable to end this post with quotin Lenin "'The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them".

Already happened with Germany, France, UK etc... only a matter of time with the US.

[kaur]

Today was shot down another Ukrainian plane. No wonder, if you watch this video. This video was made in Slovyansk after separatists left the city. If I'm not mistaken, there were 16 boxes of MANPAD missiles (9M39 should be "Igla" missile) in the basement. I suspect that FSB guy Strelkov/Girkin got some with him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYpB-uuE638

[mirhond]

Yes... they don't need to use the word to make the point. Russia is the bully boy of the region, that is why I suggested that the US should offer to supply Ukraine with tactical nukes - they will use them and make Russia pay a heavy price for any future adventurism.

1. Sheer speculation.
2. You think Poroshenko&Co are so insane that they will use tactical nukes and make a national suicide? You really believe it? What evidence you have to support this belief?

upd.

Interview with Swedish sniper who fights on Ukrainian side in "Azov" batallion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR-HgxxCf9c

twitter channel of this guy.
https://twitter.com/MikaelSkillt

Is anyone here knows Swedish good enough to (dis)prove this story?

[JMA]

1. Sheer speculation.
2. You think Poroshenko&Co are so insane that they will use tactical nukes and make a national suicide? You really believe it? What evidence you have to support this belief?

MAD... mutually assured destruction

In the case of the US and Russia the US clearly thought the Russians would. This fear of nukes among the US population has been used by good effect by the Russians for many years.

In the case of the Ukraine the Russians have the weapons and the Ukrainians don't. It would go someway to prevent Russian territorial adventurism if the Ukrainians had at least tactical nukes and drew a red-line along their border with regard to a Russian invasion. If there was this nueclear threat - albeit limited - would the Russians be dumb enough to invade? Of course the Ukrainians would have to consider which outcome would be worst, occupation and subjugation of all or some of its territory by their old enemy Russia or massive damage from a nuclear strike. At minimum it would make the Russians think twice.

[BrentWilliams]

Great Read.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russians-imperial-dream-faces-showdown-in-donetsk-1405296159


Russian's 'Imperial Dream' Faces Last Stand in Donetsk
Muscovite Heading Separatist Movement in Ukraine Seeks Return of Empire

....
The prominence of Mr. Borodai and other Russian citizens at the helm of the insurgency makes any negotiated peace with Kiev harder to attain and poses an image problem for Moscow, which has argued that separatism in east Ukraine is a grass-roots movement.

"I have no idea what this person from Moscow is doing here," said a local separatist official, who, like several other senior homegrown activists, found himself sidelined with Mr. Borodai's arrival. "It was a raider's takeover."

Andrei Purgin, a Donetsk man who has been agitating for separatism for more than a decade and now serves as a deputy to Mr. Borodai, says "revolutionaries don't necessarily make good administrators, so we had to rely on specialists from outside, on parachutists so to speak."
...

[OUTLAW 09]

Great Read.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russians-imperial-dream-faces-showdown-in-donetsk-1405296159

ok comrade Russian expert mirhond---can you explain just why actual Russian citizens who are not Ukrainian citizens are doing in Donetsk?

As a Russian expert mirhond you never seem to answer any direct questions concerning Russian owned weapons ie T64 tanks and Russian BM 21s being also in the Donetsk---after you attempted to "convince" us they came from Ukrainian corrupt SGTs.

[OUTLAW 09]

ok comrade Russian expert mirhond---can you explain to us here just how was it that the Russian TV got this news release SO wrong---a balant attempt at really lying and not caring if it is discovered if you ask me but maybe you should ask Putin whether he lies as well?

I mean really mirhond who is writing these articles in Russia?--cannot be you are you are busy blogging other places

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/15/there-s-no-evidence-the-ukrainian-army-crucified-a-child-in-slovyansk.html

[kaur]

The “DPR’s” core area has receded to the city of Donetsk, hemmed in by Ukrainian-controlled or contested environs. Secessionist troops (augmented with those that withdrew from other areas) are now concentrated in that city of one million people. There, the “DPR” leaders are now embarking on a state-building project on a city-state scale. It is, alongside the LPR, a building block of the Kremlin’s Novorossiya geopolitical and ideological design. Were it to take root (by Russian commission and Western omission, both patent), the “DPR” would become de facto a city-state inside Ukraine, with a short direct supply line to Russia.

More than a local “pro-Russian” project, this is a Russian project actually. Weapons, instructors, financing, geopolitical agenda, and (for the leadership group at least) ideological motivation are all Russian. And given the “DPR” commander’s repeated complaints that the locals are generally unwilling to join his forces (including most recently in Donetsk—see EDM, July 14), it follows that the pro-Russia forces probably include an even higher proportion of fighters from Russia than hitherto assumed.

On July 10, three top “DPR” leaders appeared at a press conference in Donetsk: “prime minister” Aleksandr Boroday, “defense minister” and commander-in-chief Igor Girkin/Strelkov, and newly appointed “deputy prime minister for security matters” Vladimir Antyufeyev (Interfax-Ukraine, July 10; Russkaya Vesna, July 10).

These leaders have nothing in common with Donetsk or the Donbas. They are citizens of Russia with their origins in Moscow, the Pskov region, and Novosibirsk, respectively. They have arrived in Ukraine on special mission in April 2014, February 2014, and July 2014, respectively.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42625&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=15d857f4a58b4262081f0ae6de53ff44#.U8WS9mIayS M

[BrentWilliams]

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

I would pick a plan that doesn't cause young Russian's to leave, Russians to die early,and a future demographic time bomb.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another example of a Russian TV total misinformation that was so bad even the Russians pulled it as it was a total fabrication from start to end and was declared that within minutes after it was rleased.

Maybe our Russian expert mirhond could give us some insight on why it was such a bad Russian fabrication?

http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1405478412

[Ulenspiegel]

Ulenspiegel---a simple basic question that I do not see often answered concerning the Crimea and the current Russian view towards the Crimea.

Correct me if I am wrong but who in fact "gave" the Crimea "away" and was it not done under a "communist" leader in a "communist legal fashion" in the beginning of say 1954 which if I recall the Soviet Union was still wading through "Stalinism" was it not?

So are we saying that a "communist" country led by not so softie "Communist Party fine tuned in the Stalin days " using "communist" legal terms somehow got it "wrong"?

So now it is up to the Ukraine and the West to do what "take a time out and stand in the corner" and allow another former "communist ie KGB COL" a chance for a "redo" of history say "60" years later?

Does that makes sense to you?

The missed opportunity for the Russian/Soviet government was around 1989, when it would have been possible to reassign the Krim, they did not do it because of political weakness.

I have not noticed a single German political leader nor a single German newspaper actually challenge the above statement---meaning-- are we the West to give Russia a chance to redo history all because someone in the former Soviet Union who was a "valid leader" "made a stupid 1954 mistake" in the "eyes" of the current 2014 Russian leader?

Realistically, the German reunification was only possible because of a temporary weakness in the SU/Russia around 1989. Do you really expect that a German government will oppose the occupatioon as long as it runs without war crimes?

Is that not what the current Putin argument really is all about if one really reads his statements---a chance to correct in his eyes "a stupid Communist mistake from 1954". So are you in fact stating that the "stupid West who said nothing in 1954" should in fact stand to the side and allow another "stupid mistake in 2014 to be made again"?

Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.

How do you define realpolitik?

You do realize that is exactly what Putin is saying about the Crimea and you do realize the West is allowing a complete "redo" of history just because a single person feels his nose is disjointed by a former Communist leader who he never knew because he was not born in those times although he himself was a Communist so one might think he would have empathy for that historical time period of the Soviet Communist Party?

But again I have never heard and or seen written anywhere that Putin ever revoked his Communist Party membership and the Party still survives so maybe he is a "hidden member still"---or has anyone writing here seen such a revocation notice?



Some questions for you:

Do you really think that we should do more than some economic sanctions in case of the Krim?

Or do you think that the Krim is worth for the west to play a military game?

Do you think the west holds after 2003 the moral high ground?

What was our and the Ukrainian position when Yugoslavia went south?

Unfortunately, the world is a spectrum of grey, my feeling is, you want to sell a clear black and white scenario that does not exists.

[Ulenspiegel]

Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.



Short version: For Germany it is much much better to have cordial relations with Poland and the Czeck Republic than to reclaim territory, in which no meaningful numbers of Germans live anymore and where BTW Germans as EU citizens could live and work if they like. What is your point?

[mirhond]

These leaders have nothing in common with Donetsk or the Donbas. They are citizens of Russia with their origins in Moscow, the Pskov region, and Novosibirsk, respectively. They have arrived in Ukraine on special mission in April 2014, February 2014, and July 2014, respectively.

1. They actually do have something in common with some locals: the same political agenda and beliefs.

2. Appeal to the places of origin is ridiculous, for your information, ideas may cross the borders. It's like saying "Poles from "Dombrowski" international brigade and Germans from "Condor Legion" had nothing to do with Spain, they arrived from Poland and Germany, respectively"
It's a pity that you bunked off historical lessions at school.

[kaur]

mirhond, Che thought also that peasents love him ... After all the fallacys of your previous posts, should I discard you like you did to Outlaw? What is the joint poltical agenda of "Ozero" cooperative and Donbass?

Interview with head of Lugansk SBU head in Russian. Nice details about Russians activities there. Call name "Older sister" was FSB, "sisiter" was GRU etc. Nice joint op. One gives his agents, second provides arms and experts. Going through Google translate is worth the verbal pain :)

http://gordonua.com/publications/Petrulevich-Terroristicheskie-gruppy-GRU-Rossii-uzhe-v-Kieve-i-zhdut-signala-29825.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Some questions for you:

Do you really think that we should do more than some economic sanctions in case of the Krim?

Or do you think that the Krim is worth for the west to play a military game?

Do you think the west holds after 2003 the moral high ground?

What was our and the Ukrainian position when Yugoslavia went south?

Unfortunately, the world is a spectrum of grey, my feeling is, you want to sell a clear black and white scenario that does not exists.

Here is our difference---at what point does a country or a set of countries respond and how does that response get the attention of in this case an aggressor that upset the basis of the European development as a whole since 1945.

Or did I miss that point?
Secondly, the Russian economy is actually far weaker than most think--and here is the core point most Communists including inside the GDR started to believe their own economic rhetoric in the 70s thus the numbers being reported up the chain by the LPGs and Kombinats etc. were fake and they were added to at every level until it hit the leaders hip and in the end the leadership believed the numbers while those at the bottom knew they were fake.

That is now ongoing in Russian---Putin believed his numbers as did his radical ultra nationalist advisors and it now appears the economic truth has set in---but Putin went way to far out on a limb to safely climb down.

The sanctions should be implemented harder and faster---yes it would hurt the EU but the only way to get his attention is to prove you will accept pain for one's believes the West has not shown that thus he believes he can continue as he wants.

This is not about morals ---this is hard core annexation politics nothing more nothing less and if one is trying to work the morals angle then all is lost---one cannot weigh the Iraq against say Kosovo and Kosovo against the break up of Yugoslavia which actually a large number of people accurately predicted would often---I even got a 1 on a paper on that exact topic in 1977 and actually predicted how each zone would devolve into violence---it was there for all to see many choose not to see.

The Yugoslavian breakup was driven by something new the West had not seen thus the long delay trying to figure it out---the Christian Muslim divide.

And did the West get it wrong just as Putin is struggling with a whole list of Islamic issues vs say the statements coming from the Russian Orthodox Church.

[OUTLAW 09]

1. They actually do have something in common with some locals: the same political agenda and beliefs.

2. Appeal to the places of origin is ridiculous, for your information, ideas may cross the borders. It's like saying "Poles from "Dombrowski" international brigade and Germans from "Condor Legion" had nothing to do with Spain, they arrived from Poland and Germany, respectively"
It's a pity that you bunked off historical lessions at school.

ok comrade Russian expert mirhond are you actually trying to sell us that a Russian passport carrying individual with a Russian military card, carrying weapons never issued in the Ukraine and having a legal residence inside Russian is in fact a Ukrainian.

You seem to bunk off (like the new twist in your writing ie English which you are not) you own understanding of the eastern Ukraine.

You remind me of those Russian sailors coming off a ship following the red flag and shouting not really knowing exactly what they were shouting but hey shouting is a good thing and is typical Russian.

Can you explain to us here just how it is possible that one Communist leader using Communist legal law gave something away to another Communist country only then 60 years later another former Communist then declares that the Communists in 1954 were and are total idiots for doing that because that is exactly what Putin is arguing---guess he is the "good" communist vs say those very "bad" communists who knew nothing in 1954 but again maybe it was because they were Stalinists not Communists.

Since when in Communism does one get a chance to down over a mistake---thought Communists never made mistakes as they viewed their decisions to be perfect.

Come on Russian expert mirhond get with the program and finally state something that is the truth instead of outright lies as everything you write here is in fact a bunk off.

[OUTLAW 09]

Short version: For Germany it is much much better to have cordial relations with Poland and the Czeck Republic than to reclaim territory, in which no meaningful numbers of Germans live anymore and where BTW Germans as EU citizens could live and work if they like. What is your point?

I am making the point and yes even in the Ukraine there is still a sizable German minority-there are virtually none in both Poland and the Czech republic because they were all put on forced marches to the West ie ethnic cleansing and or changed their name to Polish or Czech in order to remain in those countries--if we go back to the theory that countries can take any land just because there are ethnic minorities they perceive to be under the total control and pressure of the existing country they are in fact going back into history and changing it---is Russia in fact stating exactly what Hitler stated in 1938/1939---we all seem to drift away from those statements which perfectly match Putin and all of his statements first on Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine.

So again the question what is the difference between 38/39 and now and what is the response from the Germans and the EU in 2014 do they accept 38/39 or reject it?

[OUTLAW 09]

so Russian expert mirhond---what is your expert opinion on this Interfax release from today?

Interfax 10:54
RUSSIA WILL NOT TOLERATE U.S. SANCTION BLACKMAIL, RESERVES RIGHT TO RETALIATORY MEASURES - FOREIGN MINISTRY

Actually has not the Russian FM been saying this exact wording on all the other sanctions---so when are they finally going to do something about it---oh but wait they cannot without hurting an economy that took a massive hit this morning of over 3% loss in both the Rubel and the Russian stock market.

A lot of oligarchs plus Putin's personal wealth "disappeared" this morning and this is only the beginning.

so mirhond --what was exactly your opinion again on how great the Russian win is in the Crimea?