Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014) [Archive] - Page 8

BrentWilliams

07-17-2014, 12:07 PM

so Russian expert mirhond---what is your expert opinion on this Interfax release from today?

Interfax 10:54
RUSSIA WILL NOT TOLERATE U.S. SANCTION BLACKMAIL, RESERVES RIGHT TO RETALIATORY MEASURES - FOREIGN MINISTRY

Actually has not the Russian FM been saying this exact wording on all the other sanctions---so when are they finally going to do something about it---oh but wait they cannot without hurting an economy that took a massive hit this morning of over 3% loss in both the Rubel and the Russian stock market.

A lot of oligarchs plus Putin's personal wealth "disappeared" this morning and this is only the beginning.

so mirhond --what was exactly your opinion again on how great the Russian win is in the Crimea?

Perhaps of more importance then sanctions is this. From today:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russian-markets-hit-by-fresh-u-s-sanctions-1405584058

A fresh round of U.S. sanctions once again ripped into Russia's markets, with stocks, bonds and the ruble taking a hit.

The new restrictions, which target Russian state-controlled oil giant OAO Rosneft ROSN.MZ -4.45% and other top firms, follow weeks of U.S. threats that Russia would face repercussions unless it helped defuse the crisis in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russia separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government for months.

Moscow's MICEX index slid 2.7%, with investors interpreting the measures as more likely to hold back the Russian economy than previous sanctions.

JMA

07-17-2014, 12:49 PM

[COLOR="Black"]Some questions for you:

Do you really think that we should do more than some economic sanctions in case of the Krim?

Well what sanctions have been applied and what deterrent effect have they had?

I suggest the response from the West has been pathetic other than from Sweden (Carl Bildt) in a speech at the Atlantic Council (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-facing-a-revisionist-russia-discussion-with-carl-bildt):

[COLOR="navy"]I can think of only one previous case in modern history when a regime suddenly militarily grabs and annexes another country or piece of territory of another country, claiming some sort of more or less relevant historical justification, and that was Saddam Hussein's invasion, occupation and annexation of Kuwait in 1991. The international reaction then was swift, strong and effective, and I believe this was very important in preventing anyone else, wherever that could have been, from harboring thoughts about making similar dangerous adventures.

With the US sadly we are seeing the last kicks of a dying horse - and how pathetic these kicks are too. As for Germany and the other (cowardly) nations of the EU they are now applying a policy of appeasement towards Russia.

So it is the principle of the matter that counts and not the spin being applied in a pathetic attempt to make cowardly appeasement appear to be an intelligent and logical approach to the annexation of Crimea.

Russia has correctly noted that there is no military ability - jointly - to counter any territorial moves may attempt in the absence of the US.

Bildt again:

In much the same way, I believe it is very important that we stand very firm on what the Russian invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea really meant and that we are clear on never accepting either its legality or its different consequences. If we should waiver on this, I see a clear risk that further Crimeas could happen further down the road, perhaps not tomorrow, and perhaps not the day after tomorrow, perhaps, but perhaps the day after the day after tomorrow, perhaps not there, perhaps not here, but perhaps somewhere else, and the consequences would be really bad. If we don't see that risk, yes, then history might well see also us as sleepwalkers into catastrophe in the future.

If I disagree with Bildt it is only in the choice of the word 'sleepwalkers', I would have used the word 'cowards', (but then again he is a diplomat). I believe the risk is seen and noted and the specific and deliberate choice has been made to appease the Russians, no sleepwalking involved.

Finally the only people with a military option is the US and clearly the current administration is running scared of any confrontation with Russia and just about anyone else. Putin knows this. Britain has steadily reduced its military to the point that it is incapable of any substantial military effort. Putin knows this. The rest of the EU in military terms is pathetic, this includes Germany. Putin knows this. Even the application economic sanctions seems to be too much for Germany to contemplate. Putin is the one laughing.

mirhond

07-17-2014, 12:52 PM

mirhond, Che thought also that peasents love him ... After all the fallacys of your previous posts, should I discard you like you did to Outlaw? What is the joint poltical agenda of "Ozero" cooperative and Donbass?

http://gordonua.com/publications/Petrulevich-Terroristicheskie-gruppy-GRU-Rossii-uzhe-v-Kieve-i-zhdut-signala-29825.html

Red Herring Fallacy. In order to make your statement relevant you have to make two things:
prove that "Ozero" cooperative has something to do with Strelkov&Co
disprove that Strelkov&Co share political agenda with some belligerent locals.

If you don't know what their political agenda and beliefs are - do some search with Яндекс.

On Petrulevich - SBU general who ####ed up securiy situation in Lugansk, surrendered to separatists and opened the doors of SBU armory to them is now trying to save his ass from lashes. Is there any reason to believe him?

ps. Have courage to carry The Burden of Proof and discard anyone you like - it's a free board.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 01:48 PM

Red Herring Fallacy. In order to make your statement relevant you have to make two things:
prove that "Ozero" cooperative has something to do with Strelkov&Co
disprove that Strelkov&Co share political agenda with some belligerent locals.

If you don't know what their political agenda and beliefs are - do some search with Яндекс.

On Petrulevich - SBU general who ####ed up securiy situation in Lugansk, surrendered to separatists and opened the doors of SBU armory to them is now trying to save his ass from lashes. Is there any reason to believe him?

ps. Have courage to carry The Burden of Proof and discard anyone you like - it's a free board.

come on comrade Russian expert mirhond---we all know that you are only providing cover for lies being disseminated into the West ie that Putin never lies.

come on Russian expert how can you argue any "fallacy" when your own "fallacy" is not even a "fallacy" but outright lies.

Did not Putin command his federated Border Security Service to "enhance the border security"---a simply yes or no would suffice as you do not need to explain much other than the border is not secure which in turn means Putin lied did he not?

I do not think he said "the FSB and Border Security should be smuggling weapons and firing Grads into the Ukraine" did he--if they are in fact firing into the Ukraine then how is that "enhanced border security"

Come on Russian expert mirhond comment on the Grad firing into the Ukraine video. It does appear that Putin must have been lying or his government security services seem to be ignoring him---which is it Russian expert?

http://inforesist.org/en/evidence-of-shelling-by-grad-of-the-territory-of-ukraine-from-the-russian-federation-video/

By the way comrade Russian expert mirhond---a GoogleMap analysis for currently four Youtube videos fully indicate that Grads were being fired from inside Russian territory so much for trusting your pal Putin when he stated there was "enhanced" border security---some "enhancement" do you not think?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/16/russia_is_firing_missiles_at_ukraine_grad_rockets_ us_sanctions

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 02:03 PM

comrade Russian expert mirhond---maybe we can be you to admit here that the dead bodies of Russian troops from the 45th Russian SF Regt were in fact returned recently to the "motherland"---it seems the Russian government cannot so maybe you have better connections than say Putin does.

By the way, Russia has yet to explain the fact of the return of the corpses of its soldiers to Russia from Ukraine leaked to the media. For example, [the soldiers] of the 45th Special Forces Airborne Regiment. I would like to hear [Dmitry] Kiselev‘s version.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 02:05 PM

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140717/190983226/US-EU-Sanctions-on-Russia-Threaten-Regressing-Relations-to-80s.html

comrade Russian expert mirhond----just maybe Putin should have thought about this before he annexed the Crimea and is now sending weapons and troops into the eastern Ukraine.

kaur

07-17-2014, 02:25 PM

mirhond, Russia is presidential country. President happens to be Mr Putin. Russian citizens are heads of Russian rebels in Ukraine, Russian weapons are transported to rebels. It seems that Putin has lost control of his country?

mirhond, зачем ты такой наглый? You act like Goebbels foot soldier. Just lies, lies and lies. I do understand that that rational arguments are all lost and this is only path left :D

mirhond

07-17-2014, 02:34 PM

Funny moment of chairborne internet warrior got busted

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NvFAvKBcVWw

Miserably looking guy in black, Budakov Dmitri is claimed to be internet-vigilante, who threatened a Gorlovka closed community admin, Alexei Petrov (known separatist supporter) to come after him with "huge gut-opener". It turned out that Petrov himself "invited" this guy to private conversation and offered him a knife combat with handicap - Budakov get a sharp blade, Petrov get a dull one. To the public disappointment, epic battle didn't happened - Budakov refused and even tried to apologise.

mirhond, Russia is presidential country. President happens to be Mr Putin. Russian citizens are heads of Russian rebels in Ukraine, Russian weapons are transported to rebels. It seems that Putin has lost control of his country?

mirhond, зачем ты такой наглый? You act like Goebbels foot soldier. Just lies, lies and lies. I do understand that that rational arguments are all lost and this is only path left :D

1. Stating the obvious and asking rethorical questions isn't a way to prove your initial claims.
2. Hitler Card and Appeal to Emotion in two lines - please, continue, I'am making the bookmarks ^_^

davidbfpo

07-18-2014, 06:24 PM

Bayonet Brant,

Point taken. Some of those who post on Ukrainian / Crimean matters have strong views on many of the issues involved, including the presence of each other.

It has long been obvious that some suspect Mirhond's membership is an "info op" itself.

I will undertake, again, a review and create a new thread for the MH17 disaster posts. Now done and the thread is 'Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17 (catch all)' (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20951)

Thread unlocked and now time for dinner.

Firn

07-18-2014, 08:23 PM

Good dinner, I wanted to suggest that split. Good to see it done already.

Russia Is Firing Missiles at Ukraine as the U.S. slaps additional sanction (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/16/russia_is_firing_missiles_at_ukraine_grad_rockets_ us_sanctions) is a detailed article from FP.

Just as news broke today that the U.S. Treasury Department was instituting a new suite of sanctions against Russia, video evidence has emerged apparently showing the most definitive proof yet of Moscow's direct participation in the ongoing war in eastern and southern Ukraine: Russian rockets being fired toward Ukraine.

This afternoon, a video was posted to YouTube and shared on social media that claimed to show Grad rockets being fired from a Russian border town likely into Ukraine. Our team at the Interpreter found several other videos with the same descriptions -- Grad rocket launches from Gukovo toward Ukrainian territory.

Several of the videos, filmed near a pond of some sort, were apparently taken by a resident of the town. A careful perusal of Google Street View reveals that several physical features in the videos match exactly a location in the northwest corner of the town, less than two miles from the Ukrainian border.

There has been the Ukrainian claim that Russia shot down an Ukrainina Su-25 (http://uacrisis.org/rechnik-rnbo/).

The Boeing crash is the third case of a plane being shot down after Ukrainian military planes, an An-26 transport plane and a Su-25 fighter jet, were brought down from the Russian territory. In particular, at 18:55 on July 16 the Ukrainian Intelligence Service (SBU) reported that Russian Air Force planes were used against an Ukrainian Air Force’s SU-25 plane near the town of Amvrosiyivka. To destroy the target, the command of the Russian Air Force ordered the pilot of a MiG-29 plane to use an R-27T (AA-10 Alamo-B) medium range Infra Red homing air-to-air missile. This type of missile cannot be detected by the Su-25’s SPO-15 radiation warning receiver, and neither can it be detected by satellite surveillance systems or post-launch surveillance systems.

R-27 missiles are manufactured in Ukraine and have the markings of manufacturing company “Artem” (Kyiv), and so if missile debris is found it will not be identifiable as from a Russian weapon. During the air fight, Russian fighter aircraft homed in on the Ukrainian plane three times for a guaranteed rocket launch. After the target was acquired with the help of an onboard quantum optical location station, the MiG-29 fired one missile at the Ukrainian plane. It is only thanks to the skillful anti-missile maneuvers of the Ukrainian pilot that a direct hit was avoided. The missile hit the motor nozzle and the pilot crash-landed the plane.

There is no doubt that in recent weeks Ukrainian forces pushed back seperatist elements and have brought a considerable area with a large population back under state control. There have been considerable casualities among the seperatists and Russia has increased it's supply, especially of heavy weapons. Since air attacks inflicted much of the damage, also on supply convoys coming from the Russian side it is only logically that the Russian-backed speratists wanted to blunt those. Both the delivery of more capable SAMs and the order to Russian jets to shoot an Ukrainian plane make lot of sense in a miltary context. Of course it increased the political risk in a foreign context, but the recent event was clearly not expected. The seemingly narrow decision making in the Kremlin has been already discussed before.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 10:10 PM

Cover-up: Ukraine rebels destroying all links to MH17 air atrocity

UN demands full inquiry but armed Russian separatists block access to crash site amid confusion over black boxes

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-mh17-removed

There is also confusion over the black boxes and other devices apparently salvaged from the plane. A rebel military commander initially said he was considering what to do with them, while another rebel leader, Aleksandr Borodai, contradicting his colleague, said the rebels had no black boxes or any other devices.

The Ukrainian interior ministry added to fears of a cover-up when it released video purportedly taken by police showing a truck carrying a Buk missile launcher with one of its four missiles apparently missing, rolling towards the Russian border at dawn . The video could not be independently verified.

Other material on rebel social media sites was being deleted, including pictures showing the alleged capture of Buk missile vehicles by rebels from a Ukrainian air base last month.

This is the critical point in the article:
Video footage allegedly taken on Thursday appeared to support the idea that pro-Russia separatists had been to blame. It showed a Buk battery seemingly being moved in the rebel-held area between Snizhne and Torez close to the crash site. A still picture allegedly shows a missile in vertical launch mode beside a supermarket in Torez. However, the location has still to be established.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 10:22 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebels-shot-down-mh17-russia-could-reap-144258055.html

"The facts will inevitably come in, and if it is shown that Russian-supported rebels did this, the whole conversation about Ukraine will change," says Alexander Golts, a military expert with the online journal Yezhednevny Zhurnal. "In the eyes of the world there will be no difference between Russia and the rebels. Everyone knows who arms and supports these rebels, and that will be enough for most people to blame Russia."

Some argue that it's possible the horror of the airliner's downing in the heart of Europe could force all sides to step back from the escalating hostilities in eastern Ukraine and the increasingly vicious "information war" that has accompanied it.

"Much will depend on how Russia behaves now," says Alexei Makarkin, director of the independent Center of Political Technologies in Moscow. The key players in the Ukraine drama are poised at a crossroads, he says.

"A compromise aimed at avoiding any further escalation is possible. But the West will demand that Russia leave eastern Ukraine for good, and many in Russia will not accept that. So, it's also possible that we'll see a severe aggravation of our position, with tougher sanctions and US supplies of military aid to Ukraine," Mr. Makarkin adds.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:14 PM

One really has to appreciate social media and Google Map as OSINT---the reported separatist BUK with a single online photo which they claimed to not have inside the Ukraine has been geolocated.

Pro-Russian Separatists' BUK Geolocated in Torez
20:08 (GMT)

The picture of the BUK missile system said to be in the possession of pro-Russian separatists which we reported 17 July, parked behind some stores in a town in southeastern Ukraine, has now been geolocated by Aric Toller on Gagarin Street in Torez.

Love YouTude---this is the Russian dash cam video that helped locate accurately the BUK.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_GmpkC52A&feature=youtu.be&t=1m30s

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:27 PM

Anyone have any ideas why the Russian separatists are stealing the dead passenger bodies?

From Daily Beast:

Pro-Russian Separatists Reportedly Steal 36 Bodies from Malaysian Airliner Crash

21:20 (GMT)

Separatist fighters from the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) have reportedly stolen 36 bodies of people killed in the downing of the Malaysian airliner, rbc.ua reported.

The press service of the Donetsk Region State Administration made the announcement, citing eye-witnesses.

The Interpreter has translated the statement:

"After the end of of the active stage of work at the site of the tragedy, representatives of the DPR arrived at the village of Rassypnoye and stole 36 bodies of victims of the air crash. Armed fighters drove away rescue workers and took communication devices from most of them. They loaded the bodies into a truck like sacks. According to the fighters, they intend to take the bodies to Donetsk."

We have no verification of the report, but the fact that the statement was made by a local state administrator adds a certain credibility to it.

mirhond

07-19-2014, 10:09 AM

Russia Is Firing Missiles at Ukraine as the U.S. slaps additional sanction is a detailed article from FP.

Quote:

This afternoon, a video was posted to YouTube and shared on social media that claimed to show Grad rockets being fired from a Russian border town likely into Ukraine. Our team at the Interpreter found several other videos with the same descriptions -- Grad rocket launches from Gukovo toward Ukrainian territory.
.

I believe their "team" found this one, titled "Grad launch in Gukovo"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAhnXm0HfOY

entire scene is hilarious: soldier without insignia, background voices speaking with thick South Russian/Ukrainian accent and actual Ukrainian, old part-timer in grandfathers camoflage - somehow it must look like Russain army :D
It would take a huge effort in rejecting the disbelief and accept this claim as true.
The fact is, Ukrainians have been scorched in the fields near Zelenopol'ye
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsQtRN-IAAA3pPa.jpg:large
and separatists have enough Grads to do it alone, as they claim.

mirhond

07-19-2014, 11:44 AM

mirhond

07-19-2014, 01:15 PM

Einsatztruppe sent to secure golf club near Snezhnoye
My mistake, not Snezhnoe, but Schast'je, lies North of Lugansk, where "Aidar" batallion got busted yesterday.

http://lifenews.ru/news/135282

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 05:26 PM

I believe their "team" found this one, titled "Grad launch in Gukovo"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAhnXm0HfOY

entire scene is hilarious: soldier without insignia, background voices speaking with thick South Russian/Ukrainian accent and actual Ukrainian, old part-timer in grandfathers camoflage - somehow it must look like Russain army :D
It would take a huge effort in rejecting the disbelief and accept this claim as true.
The fact is, Ukrainians have been scorched in the fields near Zelenopol'ye
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsQtRN-IAAA3pPa.jpg:large
and separatists have enough Grads to do it alone, as they claim.

come on comrade Russian no so expert mirhond---here you go again stating Russian TV statements and making like you are the greatest Russian expert.

So you are basically stating for us here and in clear English the four different YouTube videos showing massive BM 21 volleys are what "fakes"---come on expert you cannot be that off.

The four videos were in fact used to geo locate the firing point using Google Earth/Google Map using the coordinates time stamped on the videos taken---something you are not familiar with in Russia --because if you are then why are the Russian mercenaries releasing so many videos---again maybe studying the Islamic jihadi's will give you all better results or maybe Russian TV can "convince" the West that the videos are fakes because you are not doing a good job of it.

until then comrade please come up with a better argument because it is just not working what you are doing but since the airliner you all shot down you all are having messaging problems.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 05:29 PM

Lugansk after shelling 18.07.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQ-FF85jlzw

upd. Interview with POW of "Aidar" wolunteer batallion

part one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb24NAjqEbM

6:22 "Charges against me will be dismissed if I join National Guard COIN"
Darn funny backstory: this guy along with his comrades found two men on Maidan, one of them was giving blowjob to other, so they took these apostates as hostages, later those miadaneros were indicted for a kidnapping.
7:20 "I left my hundred, because our captain give entire whip fund, 20 000 Hr. to his wife, so I went astray until some friends accepted me into other hundred"

part two http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rXhJ15gcI

3:15 "Einsatztruppe sent to secure golf club near Snezhnoye have returned with new cars and reported 60 separatists executed, one even boasted enormous booty"

come on comrade Russian the not so expert mirhond ---when you use English here try to improve on it as it is really bad this time around---so who are the other persons using your mirhond login?---what we are up to three individuals again just based on the use of the poor English language usage.

secondly, if one uses the Islamic jihadi language---then at least get it right because my comrade friend you are not using it correctly but the again you claim to be a "zealous Christian" so I am not so sure you understand jiahdi's as we do here at SWJ.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 05:59 PM

hey comrade not such a Russian expert mirhond can you explain to us here at SWJ just how a "little green man" wearing a Russian Army uniform "ended up" being captured inside the Ukraine when Russia under Putin's orders or at least that is what he told the West was it not expert mirhond that the security had been "enhanced" so just how did he get through the "enhanced" security mirhond?

so expert mirhond first answer the question then I will be more than happy to pass the link---at least I do not post tons of photos that mean nothing.

3. I liked the way that the city of Omsk [Siberia] Russian Internet media talked about a Russian conscript (“little green man”) who was taken prisoner yesterday in Ukraine. That is, the kid was taking a walk somewhere “between the villages of Marynivka in Donetsk Oblast (Ukraine) and Kuybyshevo in Rostov Oblast (Russia)” where he disappeared (these freaks are not even aware of the existence of a state border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation).

The relatives of the little boy are crying that, supposedly, Ukrainian security forces kidnapped him and took him to Ukraine. I wonder who needs this snot-nosed greenhorn.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 06:20 PM

comrade Russian not so expert mirhond---want to take a chance to comment on this article---now it is in technical English so I am not so sure of your English abilities as there are three of you.

http://gizmodo.com/a-tweetbot-caught-the-russian-govt-editing-flight-mh17-1607483459?

Seems like the Russian government got caught trying to delete the truth about the BUK missile being fired.

Remember @CongressEdits, the tweetbot that alerts whenever a Wikipedia article is edited from a government IP address? There's a Russian version now, and it just uncovered some pretty drastic edits to a Wikipedia article that mentions Flight MH17, originating from a Russian government IP address.

As The Telegraph reports, @RuGovEdits tweeted that a computer user from within the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VHTRK) edited the Russian-language version of the Wikipedia entry about the Malaysian Airlines passenger jet shot down over Ukraine yesterday.

The original version of the Wikipedia article listing civil aviation accidents stated that MH17 had been shot down "by terrorists of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic with Buk system missiles, which the terrorists received from the Russian Federation." Emphasis added.

The edits originating from the government-owned computer changed the article to read "the plane [flight MH17] was shot down by Ukrainian soldiers". Again, emphasis added.

@RuGovEdits alerted the public with a tweet that says (translated): "Wikipedia article List of aircraft accidents in civil aviation has been edited by RTR [another name for VGTRK]".

If @RuGovEdits is to be trusted (and considering the Wiki-twitterbot code is widely available on Github, it probably can be), it certainly seems like someone within the Russian government is working to hide the widely-held theory that Russian weapons were used to bring down MH17. But while Wikipedia might be malleable, it's also transparent. [The Telegraph via Amanda Zamora]

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 07:07 PM

comrade non Russian expert mirhond---the Russian government is demanding from the Ukrainians that they produce all air defense information concerning the from Russian "alleged" Ukrainian shooting down of the airliner which is an amazing twist of the truth.

Now for the interesting question--Moscow has been complaining for years about the American Missile Defense Shield being aimed at Russia---are you the Russian expert going to tell us that Russia does not have the abilities in their missile defense system to pinpoint launch missiles and to track their launch location.

come on expert mirhond you know the Russians have the same abilities to rack/stack and observe missile launches as do the Americans.

so expert mirhond a question to you but I know you will avoid answering it as it does do fit the Russian definition well at least maybe the Russian TV 1definition of truth which is the same as yours by the way.

WHY does not Russia for the entire world to see and review release their own data concerning the missile launch IF they are so sure as you are so sure the Ukrainians did shot the airliner down.----would that not "prove" the Russians were not to blame?

oh comrade mirhond who shot down KAL007 by the way and first for days denied it AND then later blamed the US for a Soviet mistake---come on mirhond. why is it Russia never takes responsibility for anything---you all give kids MANPADs/tanks/Buks and you yet wonder why civilians are getting killed in the streets of the towns those "kids" control-great "zealous Christians they are".

come on mirhond suggest to Putin to release the data then we will know who is lying---but again you will not answer the question so in fact you will be confirming the Russian missile shot down the aircraft.

if you need assistance in finding the link---will be happy to provide it but since you will not respond there is not need to link it. But since it came from Russian sources you must be aware of it.

17.08 Uhr: Moskau fordert von der Ukraine die Offenlegung aller militrischen Daten bezglich ihrer Luftabwehr im Konfliktgebiet. Die Fhrung in Kiew msse detailliert Einblick gewhren, wo und wie die Ukraine Boden-Luft- und Luft-Luft-Raketen verwende, sagt Russlands Vizeverteidigungsminister Anatoli Antonow dem TV-Sender Rossija-24. Die entscheidende Frage sei: Was geschah im Luftraum ber der Ukraine und was mssen wir tun, damit so etwas nicht noch einem passiert.

comrade mirhond---this is the tenth attempt at using different "alledged" stories in trying to control the shot down narrative by the Russian government---the world yet still points the finger straight at Russia and Putin---so maybe a "truth" narrative might work for a change.

oh by the way comrade mirhond---those "zealous Christians" you defended have been looting the dead bodies and taking their credit and bank cards---the Dutch National Bank is now warning of their illegal use.

so comrade mirhond---what is more important to the "zealous Christians" assisting in the proper recovery of 298 slaughtered men, women, and children or stealing from them? what a great way to create "self determination" for a New Russia do you not think---based on theft from slaughtered civilians.

if you need the link can provide it but you will never read it as it is a "fake article" right mirhond?

well so much for "honest zealous Christians" on the proRussian side.

mirhond

07-21-2014, 08:03 AM

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 10:09 AM

Lisichansk after rocket shelling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhwA1IsBLFE#t=56

finny dialog at 3:11
"I thought it's a tube"
"Are you ####ing nuts? A tube?!"

Guys who approach unexploded missile must have balls of steel.

STRELA 10Ms now in the Ukraine:

so comrade not so informed mirhond---who provided the Strela 10Ms into the Russian mercenaries since they are mounted on an armored vehicle and must be driven or tractor trailer hauled---I suppose you will argue they "magically appeared" out of nowhere---come on even the Russian mercenaries are openly admitting they get heavy weapons systems form Russia and yet you cannot admit it---come on mirhond get with the information flow you are behind in it today.

kind of funny---hey we did not shot down the plane even if there are valid admitted to by the mercenaries voice intercepts, tweets and Facebook photos/videos, and satellite geo location photos of the launch but have we do have Strela 10Ms.

http://inforesist.org/en/borodai-we-did-not-shoot-down-the-boeing-but-we-have-armed-ourselves-with-strela-10m-sams/

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 10:23 AM

so comrade mirhond---Putin is really all words and no actions---wow what a superpower---they cannot even secure their own borders nor stop "civil societies" from shipping heavy weapons to the Russian looters.

mirhond you can find the Russian link to the Putin speech yourself:

NOTE: did Putin state any concrete actions he is taking that can be observed?
Notice he never refers to actions Russia will be taking--it is always "others must do something".

In connection with the terrible tragic events that occurred in the skies over Donetsk, I would like to say once again what the attitude we in Russia have to events that are taking place in Ukraine.

We have repeatedly called on all warring parties to immediately stop the bloodshed and to sit down at the negotiating table. We can confidently say that if June 28 fighting in eastern Ukraine were not renewed, then this tragedy would not have happened for sure.

However, no one should not have the right to use this tragedy to achieve selfish political objectives. Such events should not divide but unite people. It is necessary that all the people who are responsible for the situation in the region improved their responsibility to their own people and to the peoples of those countries whose representatives have been victims of this disaster.

It's necessary to do everything to ensure the safety of international experts on the scene. Today there are already working representatives of Donbass, Donetsk, representatives of Ministry of Ukraine, experts from Malaysia. But this is not enough.

It's necessary that a full team of experts under the auspices of ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) , the corresponding international commission, could work at the crash site. We must do everything to ensure its full and absolute security, ensure necessary for its operation humanitarian corridors.

For its part, Russia will do all that we can to the conflict in eastern Ukraine moved from today's military phase to the phase of discussing at the negotiating table by exclusively peaceful and diplomatic means.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 11:08 AM

so comrade mirhond---read and weep---- read and weep my friend the oligarchs are starting to jump ship.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-billionaires-horror-putin-risks-200001106.html

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 11:16 AM

comrade not so informed mirhond---so this is how those Cossack "zealous Christians" treat other "Christians" who are apparently not of the same political opinion--Chechen all over again is it not comrade mirhond?

http://inforesist.org/en/burial-of-tortured-by-terrorists-civilians-is-found-in-slovyansk/

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 11:34 AM

Lisichansk after rocket shelling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhwA1IsBLFE#t=56

finny dialog at 3:11
"I thought it's a tube"
"Are you ####ing nuts? A tube?!"

Guys who approach unexploded missile must have balls of steel.

you have got to get better at understanding Russian and Russian rockets---

1. is it not strange that three rockets were fired and all were duds or did you see any impact craters in the video from other exploded rockets---none so how does this qualify as a "shelling"?

2. if you really are a Russian expert instead of a paid cut and past FSB type then you would have noticed that the rockets are of three different calibers-not you standard BM 21 122mm rounds you have been complaining that the Ukrainians are firing at the civilians

3. if then they are not of the same caliber when what kind of Russian military MLRs system fires three different sized calibers at the same time mirhond---come on get better at this my friend

4. am assuming the rockets were simply stolen from somewhere or moved across the border by the Russian civil society whatever that is and launched simply off of a iron metal frame system as the spread was relatively wide--they were simply free launched in the general direction---sort of a lobbing concept which mercenaries can only do since they are not trained rocket troops.

by the way mirhond you do know that the Ukrainian military has videos of the Russian mercenaries firing rockets into towns and villages and then filming in a hurry to then claim it was those brutal junta/Right Sector guys.

by the way some really bad munitions---if none of them detonated---really bad Russian quality from what about the 1980s period if you want my opinion mirhond.

get a better video when you talk about shellings.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 03:01 PM

More Russian Federation citizens killed, wounded or captured in fighting inside the Ukraine.

Tonight a terrorist group tried to break through from town Lysychansk in the Luhansk region. Reports the press office of the President.

On orders of the Commander of the Armed Forces the convoy of armed vehicles of the gang was destroyed: three armoured vehicles destroyed, 23 militants are captured, their leader is wounded.

There were Chechens among the captured. All militants are citizens of the Russian Federation.

http://inforesist.org/en/the-ato-forces-captured-23-russian-militants-who-tried-to-escape-from-lysychansk/

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 05:32 PM

Looks like the Russians are now building up immediately on the Ukrainian border---Putin is looking for a reason to save the losing Russian mercenaries and himself from defeat.

Near the Ukrainian border with Bryansk Oblast (RF) an accumulation of Russian armor has been noticed. This was reported by UNN in the SNBO info center.

“In Russia, specifically in Bryansk Oblast, near the border with Ukraine a column (around 30 tanks) was noticed moving, along with a significant accumulation of other armor near the city of Novoshakhtinsk in Rostov Oblast” – said the report

Here we go again--there are indications coming out of Moscow that the hardliners around Putin really do want to invade as their hate of the West overrides economical damage from the invasion.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/authorities-russia-continues-firing-at-ukrainian-positions-moves-100-extra-military-units-to-border-357167.html

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 08:25 PM

It appears the last round of the US sanctions is hitting hard.

Interfax from today:

07/21 21:38 RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK MAY SELL FOREX TO SANCTIONS-HIT BANKS VIA MARKET - BELOUSOV

07/21 21:37 GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING MEASURES TO SUPPORT VEB TARGETED BY SANCTIONS; ADDITIONAL CAPITALIZATION POSSIBLE - BELOUSOV

Firn

07-21-2014, 08:52 PM

A snapshot of the current situation through the usual fog of war. It is a pretty rough guide, but the Ukrainian forces have certainly made progress in the last weeks and days. At least an area with a pre-war population of over 100.000 has been liberated.

http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/07/21/p18tcd9nb513r91b14ncv2cv1m2q4/content.png

As I have written before the have been caught completely unaware by the Russian 'stab into the back' but a country of 40 million under the government's control is increasingly mobilizing and fighting back. It is difficult to see how the (pro)Russians will be able to hold out for a long period if Russia doesn't heavily reinforce it's shadowy forces composed by all sorts of individuals, even locals. Still in this conflict the Kremlin has de facto so far only escalated so one can hardly rule that out.

Firn

07-21-2014, 09:42 PM

Just a couple of words about the diplomatic moves in this conflict, especially the EU countries.

Italy's government has certainly been the most openly 'filorusso' of the big countries, while France is more circumspect, perhaps due that Mistral business. It is currently heads the EU, but the visit by Mogherini (http://www.corriere.it/esteri/14_luglio_14/veto-est-contro-mogherini-troppo-amica-russia-d280f8be-0b27-11e4-9c81-35b5f1c1d8ab.shtml) has obviously caused bad blood. The killing of almost 300 civilians, mostly Europeans with Russia's help has clearly greatly reduced her chance to get Ashtons job, but who knows what will happen.

Overall Renzi has been pretty naive so far in European politics and was keen to avoid the nomination of the guy he stabbed into the back, Letta.

kaur

07-21-2014, 10:53 PM

Russia’s top 80 lies about Ukraine

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-s-top-80-lies-about-ukraine

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 06:29 AM

comrade mirhond---care to comment on the story below that a "great Russian irregular leader" "just happened" to be in the Ukraine and a passer by "just happen to place a AK in his hands---really comrade mirhond can you help them at least get their stories correct or at least "sound" normal.

The Russia bear caught with is hands in the honey pot--old Russian mercenary saying.

comrade mirhond--an provide the link if you can read but it was in Ukrainian.

3. In Donbas, soldiers from the Aidar Battalion caught Tamerlan Enaldiev, one of the Deputy Defense Ministers of South Ossetia, chopped off earlier from Georgia.

It’s pretty obvious that Enaldiev began to state that he had ended up in Ukraine by chance, that he had not participated in any hostilities, nor had he commanded the mercenaries, and that an automatic machine gun ended up in his hands by error (an unknown passer-by shoved it there), I swear on my mother.

These captured personnel are clear evidence that Putin gathers mercenaries from all corners of his rotten unfinished empire. A mercenary from the Caucasus that keeps drowning Ukraine in blood–here is the image of the Russian world, cherished by Moscow. Every reasonable person must see and understand this image [for what it truly is].

JMA

07-22-2014, 09:20 AM

When the term Russian mercenaries what exactly is meant?

Are we talking about ethnic Russians, either residents of Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere, civilians, ex-servicemen including some currently serving in the Russian military?

As such would these people be covered under the Geneva Convention? And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

comrade mirhond---care to comment on the story below that a "great Russian irregular leader" "just happened" to be in the Ukraine and a passer by "just happen to place a AK in his hands---really comrade mirhond can you help them at least get their stories correct or at least "sound" normal.

The Russia bear caught with is hands in the honey pot--old Russian mercenary saying.

comrade mirhond--an provide the link if you can read but it was in Ukrainian.

3. In Donbas, soldiers from the Aidar Battalion caught Tamerlan Enaldiev, one of the Deputy Defense Ministers of South Ossetia, chopped off earlier from Georgia.

It’s pretty obvious that Enaldiev began to state that he had ended up in Ukraine by chance, that he had not participated in any hostilities, nor had he commanded the mercenaries, and that an automatic machine gun ended up in his hands by error (an unknown passer-by shoved it there), I swear on my mother.

These captured personnel are clear evidence that Putin gathers mercenaries from all corners of his rotten unfinished empire. A mercenary from the Caucasus that keeps drowning Ukraine in blood–here is the image of the Russian world, cherished by Moscow. Every reasonable person must see and understand this image [for what it truly is].

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 10:03 AM

When the term Russian mercenaries what exactly is meant?

Are we talking about ethnic Russians, either residents of Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere, civilians, ex-servicemen including some currently serving in the Russian military?

As such would these people be covered under the Geneva Convention? And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

JMA---ethnic Russian citizens carrying Russian passports and crossing into the Ukraine from the Russian Federation.

Under the GC---if you are carrying a visible weapon, wearing a visible uniform and carrying and ID even as a mercenary you are granted GC rights and protection---the Ukrainian law being used is in fact overriding the GC as they state it is internal Ukrainian police laws that are being broken thus they are investigated under those AT laws and then charged under them.

Eastern Ukrainians who have been assisting and have as the Kiev government states "no blood on their hands" are to be let go after an investigation process.

On the other hand the mercenaries especially the Cossacks have currently an estimated 400 civilian prisoners, have left behind one large mass grave, torture and kill anyone who is not pro Russian.

mirhond

07-22-2014, 10:31 AM

And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

1. Why do you bother? You already gave an answer - ethnical cleansing, so relax and wait, Ukrainians will do it in due time.
2. You really believe Ukraine will get Crimea back?

JMA

07-22-2014, 12:22 PM

1. Why do you bother? You already gave an answer - ethnical cleansing, so relax and wait, Ukrainians will do it in due time.

The Russians and the Germans exposed and thereby thought the Ukrainians well about genocide, ethnic cleansing and mass murder 70 odd years ago. With what has and continues to happen on the ground in Eastern Ukraine through the actions of Russian proxies the chances are good that the Ukrainians will look to revenge once they regain control of the area. This needs to be anticipated and countered through positive action on behalf of the US and the EU. These people - as stupid and gullible as they are - should not have to pay the price for Putin's megalomania.

2. You really believe Ukraine will get Crimea back?

Who believed that Kuwait would ever be freed from Saddam's grasp?

Of course it should... but the US is a spent force and Putin has Germany in his pocket so who knows.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 07:40 PM

comrade mirhond will like this---the US released the missile trajectory and it did not come from a Ukrainian Buk--- came head on and it came from a Cossack mercenary held town and is where the white tractor trailer hauling the Buk with a missing missile was seen.

Half way down the article link is the CNN twitter showing the missile path.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/newsticker-zum-flug-mh17-der-malaysia-airlines-alle-298-opfer-sollen-in-den-niederlanden-identifiziert-werden_id_4008709.html

If the US has the missile path then they have the launch geo location---wonder what the Russian AF General who claimed it was the Ukrainians yesterday will say tomorrow?

Also in the article is the announcement that the Ukrainian SSU has a voice intercept of a Russian officer calling his Moscow office shortly before the downing stating that they had acquired a target---now that one will be more than interesting to see how the Russians spin this. That must be why they have been so adamant that it was the Russians indicating they had solid proof.

Firn

07-22-2014, 09:54 PM

It seems that all the large population centers of the Lysychansk hub, along the Seversky Donets have been liberated (http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/en/148/571646/). Over 240.000 lived pre-war in the two cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk alone. The whole area was, as stated before, threatened to be cut off from (Pro)-Russian-held areas so this might have to do with the seemingly quick success. It is of course impossible to say how many of the defenders got away. Still the fall of the third largest urban hub formerly under (Pro)-Russian control seems to be back under the control of the national government.

On the other hand the (Pro)-Russians seem to have taken Chervona Zorya, the border area which is marked by many clashes on the following map. This would isolated the Ukrainian forces in the very east. With both heavy casualities from artillery strikes happening quite close to the Russian border this seems to be an especially dangerous place. Maybe just a case, probably not.

http://mediarnbo.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/RNBO_map_22_07.jpg

This map is not quite up-to-date but it also shows that Luhansk is threatened with encirclement and that Horlivka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horlivka#cite_note-11) seems to be a priority objective. The latter is the third largest city still patrolled by (Pro)-Russians. Of course the military liberation is just one step, if a necessary and most important one, in a long process.

Dayuhan

07-23-2014, 12:20 AM

Who believed that Kuwait would ever be freed from Saddam's grasp?

Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait would be liberated?

Saddam didn't have nukes; Putin does. Crimea doesn't have oil, Kuwait does. Those factors may have some slight impact on the relative risk/reward calculations.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 11:50 AM

Firn---one has to hand it to the Ukrainian military and it must be a surprise to Putin and the mercenaries---they can fight--it took awhile to get untracked, call up and train the NG and mate them with the Airborne/armored units and get into the swing of CC (planning and ordering troop movements) ie all those things a military must do when at war which they were not prepared for. And it took time to get their armor up and even running---and at first with literally with no body armor or food for their troops.

A steady town for town city for city campaign---and I think the mercenaries are also startled at the willingness of the UA to use heavy weapons even in ton and cities to break their will.

Then they roll into the captured towns with relief supplies, food and water and treat the locals as if they are still part and parcel Ukrainians---hey they learned COIN while in Iraq.

http://en.inforesist.org/the-ato-forces-continue-to-advance-to-positions-of-terrorists-video/

One can see the surprise by both the Russians and the mercenaries about the fighting abilities of the UA in comments recently in Interfax blaming Swedish, Finnish, Polish and Czech mercenaries fighting with the US---at first they were claiming Grey Stone and Black Water and company.

Then this in the last few days out of Donetsk---it appears as if they think now they are fighting NATO--maybe that was the reason yesterday Putin claimed they must increase their defense sending to now counter NATO on their borders:

4. Trying to justify their deliberate defeat, the little Russian fighters are employing every means possible [to explain themselves].

The so-called “prime minister” of the terrorist organization DNR, [Alexander] Borodai, claimed that in fact they are waging war not only with Ukraine, but also…with NATO. As in, the terrorists are forced to fight “against an army, for whom a huge mass of mercenaries are fighting from different countries, from Poland, from all over Europe.”

Presumably, when the next reinforcement of mercenaries from Caucasia brings a new batch of drugs, Borodai will suddenly realize that not only Europe and NATO are fighting for Ukrainians, but also the Intergalactic Fleet of Martians. We are looking forward to a protest note from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the Government of Mars.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 01:22 PM

One is seeing a lot of Russian media videos depicting the shelling of civilians by the "Ukranians"---this time a survivor stated the mortars had been fired by the separatists and the locals who were in the immediate area were told to leave the bodies where they were until a Russian news team came.

Then the video was released on social media and Russian media.

http://en.inforesist.org/terrorists-published-video-to-make-which-they-shelled-residents-of-luhansk-from-mortars-strictly-18/

carl

07-23-2014, 01:44 PM

When I awoke this morning the first thing I saw on AOL was a photo of a well turned out members of a Ukrainian military honor guard respectfully and ceremoniously loading the body of MH17 victim on a plane to Western Europe. I contrast that with previous images of balaclava wearing 'seperatists' standing around the crash site preventing recovery of those bodies.

The Russians aren't doing so good on the world PR front.

carl

07-23-2014, 02:12 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 03:28 PM

Outlaw:

Regarding your comment in post 1793 about the Russians being surprised at the fighting ability of the Ukrainian army; anybody who is surprised that the Ukrainians can fight has never read a history book. The Checkists were supposed to be smarter than that.

carl--you make a point---since the first colored revolt all Ukrainian Presidents attempted to dismantle the military---wonder why?--since all had deep ties to Russia.

Then via corruption the military was even in worse condition---then along comes the Crimea which embarrassed the military and their officer and it frankly stunned them.

Then the large army of the Russians marches up to the border---all the while they attempted to rebuild, had to repair all of their disused/disrepair armor, and aircraft while trying to hold off the separatists and even rebuild their SBU into the now SSU all of the fly not to speak of the dissolving of the local police forces in the east.

It took time---the UA and NG gained combat experience--more Iraq and AFG veterans came into CC positions and in combat positions and the airborne units got their feet---and they started to move.

Putin has been trying hard to get the Ukrainians to accept this federation thing and he got out maneuvered during the 7 day ceasefire where the UA went straight to combat ops and have not stopped since.

Putin forgot along the way that the Ukrainians understand Russian mindsets and strategies.

Now either he must go all in and crash the Russian economy or try to disengage some how and "claim" a victory and go home.

There was some serious UA statements that they had actually anticipated a Russian invasion between 14-17 July and it did look like it was coming ---then the crash and he is in a deep hole and cannot figure out how to get out of it---you see that in their total collapse of their information war campaign---it is all over the map and still groping---actually doubt seriously if it will recover like it was before the crash.

Still think he is looking for an excuse to come in via "peacekeeping"--once he is in his military will not leave.

Obama and the US intel community has given Putin a fig leaf to hide behind--meaning they stated there were no Russian military involved---but notice they did not say no security service or what one Russian hardliner recently called the "civil society"---fig leaf meaning get your guys under control because whether you were or were not involved it is still your weapons, your missiles and your proxy mercenaries that are causing the problems.

EU newspapers seem to think he still does not get the fig leaf concept nor does he want one as that is a sign of weakness and will be read by his population as weakness as polls in the last days state Russian citizens want the Russians in the Donbas protected--that is new and Putin follows the polls closely---so go the polls so goes Russian foreign affairs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraines-security-official-russia-deploys-military-field-camps-near-ukrainian-border-continues-provocations-357561.html

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 04:06 PM

Firn---it appears the Merkel is signaling to Putin that Germany is no longer accepting his statements that he really wants a rapid investigation of the crash and he is not influencing the separatists.

As Merkel seems to state---enough is enough---she basically does not believe him any longer---at the very outset of the Crimea---she made the statement that she felt Putin was in an altered state of reality.

Germany will be stopping on it's own any financial support to oil exploration and oil production in Russia--ouch.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-merkel-fordert-schnelle-eu-sanktionen-gegen-russland-a-982546.html

carl

07-23-2014, 04:16 PM

Outlaw:

If Vladie buck follows the polls and sends regular Russian troops in then we will see irregular and guerrilla war as done by people who really know how to do it, the effect multiplied because the Ukrainians have an open border to the west through which support can come. The Russians will pay heavily. Unfortunately given normal Russian army brutality, so will Ukrainian civilians.

mirhond

07-23-2014, 06:28 PM

Unfortunately given normal Russian army brutality, so will Ukrainian civilians.

Now I see your point: when Ukrainian army is actually killing Ukrainian citizens - it's OK, if, hypothetically, Russian army would be killing Ukrainian citizens - it' won't be OK. It sounds outlandish, but explains very much of your comments.

AdamG

07-23-2014, 06:49 PM

From RFE/RL,
Interview with a Ukrainian Separatist Fighter
http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-ukrainian-separatist-2014-7

Firn

07-23-2014, 07:50 PM

@outlaw: There is no doubt that the Ukrainian forces have recently liberated a considerable amount of territory and more importantly people. A very rough guess of mine estimates that the population living under the (Pro)Russians is down to somewhat over 2 million from around 2.8 before the last successes. Of course it could be considerably less due to refugees, but it serves as an orientation.

The linked map should also taken only as such and with the fog of war in mind. I have posted it in English and I think the large size helps. If it isn't ok just PN me.

http://mediarnbo.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/23-07-eng-grad.jpg

On the other hand the Ukrainian attempt to close down the border with Russia has faced severe setbacks with (Pro)Russian attacks hitting the quite isolated units there.

carl

07-23-2014, 10:42 PM

Now I see your point: when Ukrainian army is actually killing Ukrainian citizens - it's OK, if, hypothetically, Russian army would be killing Ukrainian citizens - it' won't be OK. It sounds outlandish, but explains very much of your comments.

Ah, mirhond. Still in there pitching. I hope you guys are getting extra pay because the siloviki are giving you not much to work with.

If you come on over to this side, you'll get paid in dollars you know. We can use guys with such stick-to-it-iveness,

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:17 AM

Now I see your point: when Ukrainian army is actually killing Ukrainian citizens - it's OK, if, hypothetically, Russian army would be killing Ukrainian citizens - it' won't be OK. It sounds outlandish, but explains very much of your comments.

come on comrade mirhond---are you indicating that Russians killing no actually slaughtering 298 equals what comrade? what about those "zealous Christians of yours" that stole 36 bodies which by the way did not make it to Donetsk that you "claimed" would happen.

and what about those burial rituals you spoke about---if rituals cover stealing credit cards and Smart phones off of dead bodies I guess you could call that Christian rituals but your argument was that the poor Cossacks all have PTSD from some much torturing and killing of Ukrainians who disagree with them

right now I have counted over 15 "stories" coming out of Moscow and Putin's mouths that point the finger at you and you fallacies.

noticed when you critique people you tend to overlook what was commented---noticed you failed to comment on the multiple photos geo located inside the Ukraine of Russian mercenaries driving around a Buk---go back and read kaur's links and weep my friend because you blew past the truth again but then again truth is not your strong point since the shot down my friend.

fallacies are truths --truths are lies thus your fallacies are lies comrade mirhond

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:24 AM

now comrade really not so informed Russian expert mirhond---

take the time and read the link ---notice that a Russian solider posted on his own Russian Facebook the fact that his artillery unit shelled Ukrainian positions inside the Ukraine all night--complete with photos of himself, his unit and his artillery.

http://en.inforesist.org/russian-soldier-boasted-in-the-social-network-about-a-night-bombing-of-ukraine-photo/

so the Russians knew nothing about the Buk they delivered to the Russian mercenaries?---come on comrade mirhond your fallacies are falling apart

guess that must be a Russian thing---it is always the other guy---meaning stop thief oh he meant me but it cannot be me because I am the one holding the AK

you do remember the mercenary who was just captured by the Ukrainians in the middle of a fire fight who claimed the following:

1. I was not involved
2. I was not the unit commander
3. Some passer by just put the AK 47 in my hands===honesty that is what he told the Ukrainian National Guard---what a mercenary he was and he was Russian

what it is with you guys lying seems to be second nature comrade mirhond

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:37 AM

comrade mirhond---read and weep---seems your mercenaries had in fact thhe Buk---seems they cannot stop talking about the killing of 298 civilians and both Russia and they seem then to lie about it

read the article in it's entire length especially the last few paragraphs my friend and weep as your mercenaries are falling apart

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-kremlin-backed-rebel-commander-acknowledges-fighters-had-buk-missile-357618.html

JMA

07-24-2014, 09:21 AM

Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait would be liberated?

Saddam didn't have nukes; Putin does. Crimea doesn't have oil, Kuwait does. Those factors may have some slight impact on the relative risk/reward calculations.

That wraps it up nicely, thank you, but to make sure I understand.

US foreign policy: driven by oil, scared s...less about nukes. Do I understand you correctly?

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 01:05 PM

JMA---here it comes-special Duma meeting scheduled--the Russians have been shelling the Ukraine with BM21s and artillery for several days now---have shot down a SU 25 from inside Russian airspace---has flooded the mercenaries with MANPADs and more tanks and at least one Buk and this from yesterday ----

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/23/putin-calls-an-emergency-state-duma-session-regarding-ukraine/

The Russians are desperately trying to get into the Ukraine as "peacekeepers" in order to then demand that the Ukraine recognize the two Russian enclaves as separate from the rest of the Ukraine and everyone knows that where the Red flag is planted they never leave.

It seems to many inside the Ukraine that the provoking by the Russian IDF into the Ukraine was to provoke them to retaliate thus giving the Russian troops that are literally standing on the border the reason for crossing.

Will be interesting to see what the EU does then as well as the US.

Dayuhan

07-24-2014, 01:17 PM

US foreign policy: driven by oil, scared s...less about nukes. Do I understand you correctly?

Driven by interests, concerned with threats... just like every other country's foreign policy. Oil isn't the only interest, but it's certainly a major one. Nuclear war isn't the only threat, but it's certainly a major one. I hope American policymakers - and Russian, Chinese, British, French, Israeli, Pakistani, and North Korean (did I miss any?) policymakers - are scared ####less of nuclear war. If they aren't, we are all in deep scheisse.

Saddam in Kuwait was a real threat to American interests, partly because of Kuwait's oil, but far more because of the direct and immediate threat to Saudi oil... which, like it or not, is a critical US interest. Russians in Crimea and messing in Ukraine are a direct threat to... what? What immediate and critical US interest involved?

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 01:22 PM

1. Why do you bother? You already gave an answer - ethnical cleansing, so relax and wait, Ukrainians will do it in due time.
2. You really believe Ukraine will get Crimea back?

comrade truly not so well informed mirhond---it appears that your "zealous Christians" that you defended due to their Christian "burial rituals" which really seems to me to be that they are just basic run of the mill criminals;

1. seem to be charging purchases to the credit cards of the dead owners---banks are seeing the charges come in

2. seem to be using those Smart phones you claimed were not be "looted" sorry meant to say "stolen"---hey they even answered them when called by the relatives of the dead

fallacies, fallacies, fallacies---they are all lies right comrade mirhond?

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ich-kann-die-wut-nicht-in-worte-fassen-ukrainer-klauen-handys-der-mh17-opfer-und-telefonieren-mit-den-angehoerigen_id_4012591.html

kaur

07-24-2014, 03:01 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 05:32 PM

2 Russian regulars posted in vkontakte pics how they were shooting Ukraine army from Russian soil.

http://trinixy.ru/104130-rossiyskiy-soldat-pohvastalsya-v-soc-seti-obstrelom-ukrainy-12-foto.html

On the last pic before map seems to be Зоопарк counter battery radar.

Please do not let common Russian soldiers understand that pictures they take and post carry a geo tag which allowed bloggers at Ukraine@war to accurately date and geo tag their locations on the Ukrainian borders validating both the date and location.

mirhond

07-24-2014, 07:37 PM

From RFE/RL,
Interview with a Ukrainian Separatist Fighter
http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-ukrainian-separatist-2014-7
Perfect example of explaining things away
Firstly, authors seem to be unable to ask cogent questions, like "You fought for what cause?" and "Is it your political beliefs which make you go there?"

Secondly, they have "anti-Ukrainian" concept in their blind spot. "Anti-Ukrainian" doesn't neccesarily means "pro-Russian" but ingoring this fact seems to be common desease of Western media, so it's pointless to blame authors for this.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 07:53 AM

Perfect example of explaining things away
Firstly, authors seem to be unable to ask cogent questions, like "You fought for what cause?" and "Is it your political beliefs which make you go there?"

Secondly, they have "anti-Ukrainian" concept in their blind spot. "Anti-Ukrainian" doesn't neccesarily means "pro-Russian" but ingoring this fact seems to be common desease of Western media, so it's pointless to blame authors for this.

come on comrade not so well informed mirhond---and you are definitively not an expert even in Russian:

let's see your critique the authors for what?---let's see what your fallacy is---- because they did not formulate questions that you thought should be asked?---then why were you not there comrade mirhond?

anti Ukrainian does not mean proRussian so anti Ukrainian means exactly what then comrade mirhond?

let's see what this common disease (by the way use spell checker) of Western media is:

1. those poor proRussians that you and Putin are protecting under the term that Putin uses "self determination" that is what he said in the Duma right mirhond?-- had what ethnic discriminations going against them by the central government what you have been calling the junta, right Sector, nationals

a. they could speak Russian no laws against that
b. they could listen 24X7 to all Russian media inside the Ukraine and from Russia itself---that is where one problem began as it was pure propaganda
c. they had their own political party--the Party of Regions
d. they were in the SBU and local police and yes even in the UA
e. they could travel to Russia unrestricted and with no visa
f. they could even have Russian passports
g. they could buy all the Russia language newspapers in the world at their neighborhood store
h. and they had and still have access to all those truth speaking Russian journalists and camera teams that are getting in the way of those fire fights so film footage goes immediately where comrade mirhond straight to Russia One

BUT your and Putin's major complaint is what---the national language was not Russian but they reside in the Ukraine right comrade mirhond?

so uniformed comrade mirhond---just where was the shoe pinching the "poor oppressed ethnic Russians" that you and Putin keep talking about?

Then the western media "saw" the dead bodies being sooo wellll taken care of by your "zealous Christians with the burial rituals" which seemed to mean all the valuables of the dead are now mine---great concept there comrade mirhond.

Then they heard the voice intercepts of the talkative mercenaries and oh yes the Russian pilot who asked permission to shot down a Ukrainian aircraft which is actually an act of war.

Then all those modern not issued to the UA Russian weapons systems that are crossing the "enhance border security".

Then they finally woke up to the massive amounts of what did you call comrade mirhond "volunteers" what the west calls mercenaries and or war tourist carrying Russian Federation passports and crossing that from Putin famous "enhanced border security" like rats travelling through cheese.

Then they see the artillery shelling and Grad shellings from Russian soil on video and on Russian soldier social media sites---by the way all valid and verified.

so again non informed and certainly not an expert mirhond---what was your complaint again---a little louder comrade we still do not hear you state anything that is a valid "fallacy".

NOW back to the interview---you critique the questions--BUT overlooked the key question---he answered as follows---yes there was an mercenary group there and they had a Buk---wonder where that Buk ame from comrade? he even went on to state they had captured one but it was damaged thus unusable---but wait the Russia/Putin stated it was a SU25 that shot down the plane, then a Ukrainian Buk system, then a US satellite, then a mystery "spy plane" then those suspicious acting Ukrainian ATC guys ---my god comrade mirhond the stories never seem to end do they?

AND at the end of the interview he displayed "buyers remorse".

OH comrade mirhond the same mercenary or ex Alpha leader thus Ukrainian said the next day I did not do that interview nor said what I said---but my friend it was already on video and broadcast to the world.

again comrade what is the difference between a Russian mercenary and a jihadi---jihadi's know when not to be in a video and when not to use their cells---Russian mercenaries on the other love the publicity---must be an ego thing.

drip, drip, drip the truth always comes through my friend.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:20 AM

comrade not so informed mirhond---want to take a swing at answering---yes rebutting the article below by the USA JCoS.

do not get into a blistering propaganda rant---honestly try to answer his comments. I know it might be hard but it is a good intellectual exercise.

here goes comrade mirhond---

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-igniting-dangerous-nationalist-fervor-says-top-us-041315317.html

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:24 AM

so comrade not informed mirhond---is this how you envisoned those "zealous Christian volunteers" "helping their fellow ethnic Russians"?

drip, drip, drip comrade mihond the truth always comes out.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/severodonetsk-residents-recall-occupiers-brutality-357837.html

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:32 AM

so comrade not informed mirhond---this is what Putin called his attempt at influencing the Russian mercenaries and his assistance in the air crash investigation.

come on comrade---his words are not even believe anymore as his actions do not speak the truth does it comrade mirhond

The U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe expressed disappointment on July 24 when the Russian respresentative to the body only allowed a small group of international observers to two small checkpoints along its border, each a few hundred meters wide along a land border of nearly 2,000 kilomers in length.

“Let us be perfectly clear—this will not provide any real accounting of Russia’s massive flows of illegal arms, funding, and personnel,” Ambassador Daniel Baer stated. “Nor will this fig leaf provide an assurance to those mourning the tragedy of flight MH17 that Russia is doing anything to stop its illegal flow of arms and other support to separatists in eastern Ukraine.”

Russia continues to violate Ukraine’s airspace, the Border Guard Service added. Four times on the evening of July 22 Russian military helicopters and drones flew into Ukraine by as deep as 500 meters.

There is allegedly a military staging area in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast. Supplies include T-64 tanks, Grad multiple-rocket launchers, various armored personnel carriers equipped with cannons, Buk advanced radar-guided surface-to-air systems, shoulder-fired rocket launchers as well as sniper rifles, mines, grenades and automatic weapons.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:37 AM

Seems that two can play the game of guerrilla warfare and it has caught the Russian mercenaries off guard:

In the Donetsk and Luhansk regions local guerrilla units have destroyed more than 20 militants, said the Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Zorian Shkiryak, reports UkrInform.

«Unknown patriots, who had formed groups to resist the enemy directly in the rear, in recent days killed more than 20 terrorists,» — said Shkiryak.

According to him the terrorist organisation LPR has already announced a reward for the head of local partisans, the amount of which is increasing by 5k EUR every day.

«Now militants move mostly in groups because when they appear on the streets alone, that may fall under the scope of partisans,» — said the Advisor.

To a question about where the guerrilla groups get their arms from, Shkiryak answered that after destroying terrorists the patriots take their arms.

«We know that there are snipers in the temporarily occupied by terrorists towns and they shoot the scam,» — added the Minister’s Advisor.

According to him, appearance of guerrilla groups in the eastern regions of Ukraine is caused in particular by the fact that people saw «the shameful essence of separatism, Russism and Russian terrorism» and give their own answer to it.

Dayuhan

07-25-2014, 10:39 AM

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 03:34 PM

Is there any independent confirmation of this?

Dayuhan---am watching about four different sites and this is the first mention---the site that released it has great contacts to the Ukrainian Security Serive and the Army.

It is interesting in that the Russian mercenary concept was to force the Ukrainian NG and Army to fight street to street ie the good old days of Chechen with the civilian loses bing high thus Russia would step in a a peacekeeping military and we all know that were the Russian Army lands it does not leave.

Interesting has been the approach by the Ukrainian Army and NG---one of encirclement and cutting off of the Russian supply lines on that made famous by Putin's own comments "enhanced security border" that is like Swiss cheese.

This has resulted in a large number of the smaller outlaying towns and villages coming back under control of the government who then sends in immediately relief items, food, bread and water and reestablished military police street security.

This article does not surprise me--the Ukrainians do have a respectable SF unit, good airborne units, and former Alpha team personnel who remained loyal and who are capable of this type of actions.

Actually when you think about it ---it works well meaning small 2,3,4 man teams working their way into cities, hiding, sniping and ambushing and more importantly reconning and passing back info to the other units--does make for an unhealthy work environment causing the mercenaries to put more men in harms way just to patrol and makes them look over their shoulders--a French partisan tactic in Paris against the Germans.

It is really hard to defend against.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 03:47 PM

Here is a great example of Russian information warfare at work.

Human Rights Watches accused the Ukrainian Army of firing Grads (122mm rockets) into Donetsk against the civilian population.

there have been repeated examples of though the Russian mercenaries fighting the same weapons into the villages, towns and cities then immediately showing up with Russian camera teams to film the Ukrainian Army atrocities.

Have learned over the years of working around HRW that they tend to reliy on second and thir hand reporting when thye have no official representative in the area of the event.

Then today via RIA the Russians claimed the ukranians were firing phosphorus shell into the Dontesk.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140725/191264009/Ukrainian-Army-Used-Phosphorus-Bombs-on-Civilians---Russian.html

Trouble is Russia when they claimed it the first, second and third times used as the evidence photos of Israeli phosphorus shells fired in the previous Gaza attacks and were discredited in their comments.

They just never seem to stop trying to get something to stick to the wall when they throw it.

But---at the same time the as the Russian mercenaries are losing the tone out of Putin, Moscow and the Russian military is getting shriller and shriller. thus the cross border artillery and BM21/27 rocket attacks trying to keep the UA preoccupied with the Russian attacks and slack off their mercenary attacks--that is not working as well.

Actually unusually shriller as the mercenaries are being pushed back when many in Russian "assumed" they would be winning.

Some say in Europe that the Russians are looking for an excuse to move peacekeeper troops into the Ukraine---thus the reason I think that is what is behind the Ukrainian third troop mobilization.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 04:39 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 05:05 PM

Dayuhan---I have said since the beginning of the Crimea here at SWC a number of times that the entire issue of the colored revolts/Maidan is a serious threat to both Russia and Putin.

The Duma has passed this week a series of what I would call anti Maidan laws against demonstrations, rallies etc. and have tightened controls on the social media and the internet as a result of the Maidann.

Taken from todays Daily Beast:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/25/putin-s-number-one-gunman-in-ukraine-warns-him-of-possible-defeat.html

Strelkov’s mission in Ukraine, whoever gave it to him, has been bigger than just the defense of the DPR. Strelkov claims to be defending Putin’s reputation and power in Russia, too. In an interview with The Daily Beast on Thursday, Strelkov adviser Druzd spoke about the importance of Russians coming to Donbass in order to prevent a revolution like the Maidan in Kiev from spreading to Moscow.

“Putin’s popularity is fading away, since nobody has stopped the slaughter of Russians in Donbass," Druzd said. “The president’s approval rating is much lower in Moscow and St. Petersburg than in the provinces. As we know, revolutions—both French and October—were done in capitals; unfortunately, we cannot exclude attempts of the Maidan type of protests in Moscow,” Druzd explained. “For now Russia mostly sends us information and humanitarian help,” he said, when what the rebels need to defend Russian interests is “significant military support.”

Dangerous talk, certainly. As anyone who knows Putin knows, Russia’s president does not respond well to threats. If Strelkov pushes too far, he could find himself a lone gunman in a very lonely war.

kaur

07-25-2014, 05:13 PM

Firn

07-25-2014, 05:40 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 05:42 PM

SBU has published tape, where FSB guy Girkin/Strelok collected info from separatist recce units to order artillery fire from Russia. In Russian and Ukrainian at the moment. It seems that in their disposal is also some kind safe communication line, that at the moment of first call didn't work.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i-NoNJNdB7c&feature=youtu.be

kaur--there was some blog chatter a couple of days ago about the Russian resupplies that were also delivering some new Russian military crypto cell phones or secure satcom phones due to the heavy intercepts going on--basically they cannot stop talking---but knowing the NSA if they can get off of listening to jihadi's and onto to Russians and the Russian mercenaries can provide a wealth of information if they would finally declass it. and release it to the world

If it is new that could explain their having initial difficulty in using them.

Have you seen anything being mentioned ie videos, tweets on the large Russian training center near Rostov that is the transit resupply point and training point for the Russian mercenaries? In the Ukrainian military intel slang they are calling it "Ft. Bragg" referring to the US Army base in NC.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 05:46 PM

The author of this Foreign Policy is totally correct---the only way you will finally get the attention of Putin and his personal advisors is truly going after his money---for the Russian elite-it has been and will always be about the money.

While Obama has refrained from it and sent subtle signals trying to get Putin to rein it in---now maybe a really big cannon shot splashed across the front pages of the morning's global media might be the nudge to make him wake up and smell the coffee.

Putin is a hardcore basic Communist of the old days kind-he does understand when he is threatened and he will move if the threat is serious enough---there has to be some old guard Communist intel specialists still left in Washington that have not retired?

It seems the blogger world is far more in tune to world politics and what can be done without firing a shot than the entire US NSC, CIA, DIA, and NSA---as they have definitely been beating them to the news cycles.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/24/how_to_kneecap_the_thug_in_the_kremlin_putin_ukrai ne_mh17

The Russian leadership right now appears to be in an altered state of reality---maybe psychologists instead of the NSC should be handling the US responses to Putin?

Interfax from today:

20:13 Moscow accuses Washington of fomenting tension in Russian-U.S. relations (Part 2)

So exactly what does the Russian leadership think they themselves have been doing in all of this since the Crimea? This is that old Russian game of everyone else is at fault but not us.

It will continue until someone cuts off the money and the reality of that seats in.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:01 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:05 PM

Certainly if you take the different informations of differing quality coming from various sources it becomes highly likely that regular Russian artillery units and not 'only' irregular ones are indeed attacking Ukrainina forces from Russian territory. SIGINT, MASINT and so forth are very likely part of the package. Maybe we will see a larger OSINT project about that.

While there are also reasons to believe that there are some false-flag shelling it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian forces have killed civilians with artillery strikes. History is full such cases and in this conflict OSINT works, like in Syria in every direction.

Firn--right now there is an active false flag operation being carried out by the Russian mercenaries in their shelling from the Ukraine into Russia which is being used by Russian to argue the Ukrainian Army needs to rein in their shelling's of civilians and the Russian border---the shelling's are coming from areas where they are no UA/NG units based.

Interfax released a statement today indicating the FSB had counted 15 impacts on Russian soil but somehow that same glorious FSB "seems" to be unable to count the tanks, SAM11s, artillery, BM21s and hundreds of Russian mercenaries who are crossing in the opposite direction.

The FSB must be totally asleep at the wheel when it comes to looking westward.

Firn

07-25-2014, 06:19 PM

Firn--right now there is an active false flag operation being carried out by the Russian mercenaries in their shelling from the Ukraine into Russia which is being used by Russian to argue the Ukrainian Army needs to rein in their shelling's of civilians and the Russian border---the shelling's are coming from areas where they are no UA/NG units based.

One should not rule out that Ukrainian shells hit Russia territory, however I agree that the Kremlin has been busy at creating pretexts or cover for all sorts of activities from invasion, occupation, 'insugencies', infiltrations, weapon shipments and so forth. In short with all the lies and propaganda streaming out of Russia it is mighty hard to identify the seemingly rare true staff in it.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 07:02 PM

One should not rule out that Ukrainian shells hit Russia territory, however I agree that the Kremlin has been busy at creating pretexts or cover for all sorts of activities from invasion, occupation, 'insugencies', infiltrations, weapon shipments and so forth. In short with all the lies and propaganda streaming out of Russia it is mighty hard to identify the seemingly rare true staff in it.

Firn---the reason the Ukrainian side rings true is that the OSCE has tried to get the Russians to allow them into a lot of border areas to include the smuggling areas ---but the Russians tried to park them on two minor out of the way crossings no where close to the crossing points being fired at and used for smuggling.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 07:07 PM

Firn---this came across today and it ties into the JCoS article in the Daily Beast from today.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/ukraine-crisis-rockets-usa-idINL2N0Q01CS20140725

Same content covered by the German der Spiegel

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-raketen-aus-russland-sollen-laut-pentagon-bald-kommen-a-982972.html

JCoS statement equating Putin to Stalin 1939.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/24/u-s-military-chief-compares-putin-s-ukraine-move-to-stalin-s-invasion-of-poland.html

Although the Russian mercenaries have already gotten the BM27 based on several duds seen in a Russian irregular released video claiming the UA had shelled a town---the duds were BM27 calibers.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:05 PM

Russia wanted Interpol to arrest the Right Sector leader Yarosh for the following reasons.

Begs the question--is this really what Russian media has been doing with their information war directed at the eastern Ukraine.

Interpol has declared Yarosh wanted upon the request of the Russian judicial authorities. The Interpol website's "wanted persons" section says that Yarosh is wanted by Russia's judicial authorities "for prosecution/to serve a sentence" on charges of "public incitement to terrorist activities involving the use of mass media" and "public incitement to extremist activities involving the use of mass media."

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:46 PM

Seems like the Russian GRU officer (Igor Strelkov) leading the DPR is potentially wanted as a war criminal in Bosnia.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/igor-strelkov-key-mh17-crash-suspect-linked-massacre-3000-bosnian-muslims-1992-1458304

Dayuhan

07-26-2014, 07:51 AM

Dayuhan---here is another example of information warfare as Russia is playing it.

Today Interfax reported that the FSB counted 15 rounds of rocket fire landing on the Russian side of the border but somehow this great Russian security service know as the FSB "knows absolutely nothing" about mercenaries, tanks, artillery, a Buk SAM11, and BM21s going over the Russian border?

Exactly how ridiculous is that especially when we are talking about the FSB or former KGB.

Yes, it is extremely ridiculous, and also very obviously ridiculous. It's a good example of the Russian ineptness at handling information... who reads Interfax material anyway, and how many people are really going to believe it? The threat of an information campaign is measured not by its extent, but by its quality and its impact, areas where the Russians go badly wrong. Shoveling hotter fresher BS on top of old stale BS does not convince people. Eventually it just ends up discrediting the source.

Putin did of course get a patriotic bounce in popularity after Crimea, but how long will that last? Isn't there a deep-rooted cynicism and distrust toward official information in Russia? How long will it be before that takes over and the crude propaganda campaign starts shooting itself in the foot?

Outside of Russia Putin has a few admirers on the conspiracy theory fringe, largely among those who imagine him as a challenger to some imaginary "New World Order" construct and those who admire his strutting homophobic machismo. That's a fringe of a fringe, though, and one without influence. Of course those who really loathe the US will side with Russia by reflex, but that would be the case no matter what information goes around.

I really don't see Russian information operations as much of a threat. Extensive, yes... but effective? Are they selling the product? To who?

Dayuhan---I have said since the beginning of the Crimea here at SWC a number of times that the entire issue of the colored revolts/Maidan is a serious threat to both Russia and Putin.

Yes, many people have been saying this since long before the Ukraine events.

AmericanPride

07-26-2014, 08:33 AM

Dayuhan,

I think many in the West mistake themselves as the target audience for Russia's information operations through its mainstream media. How many Americans actually read/watch Russia Today, Interfax, and so on? I don't think the Russians are so incompetent as to not recognize that. During the Cold War, the Russians were more subtle by penetrating Western media outlets that they knew were well received by Western audiences; influencing reporters, sending in opinion pieces, and so on. Why would that strategy have changed now? The conspiracy theories spun by Russian-originated media IMO is aimed at the Russian audience.

AmericanPride

07-26-2014, 08:37 AM

Outlaw,

Let's say that Ukraine successfully suppresses the insurgency and the violence ends with a clear government victory. What does the state of play in Europe look like then? What are the long-term effects on the Russian-European and Russian-American relationships? How will it affect U.S. interests in Syria, Iran, and Central Asia? I think we are risking fixation on one issue at the expense of others, so how far do we go in pursuing this?

mirhond

07-26-2014, 04:11 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1eSe1NeKSE

Hilarious "interview" of Ukrainian Hromadske TV chanell with Russian branch of HRW spokesperson Lokshina Tatiana.
After 3 minutes of irrelevant ranting, Ukrainian guy begs the question about "Russia wages war against Ukraine", when Lokshina tries to tell something relevant and official, the guy immediately tirns her off and says "Human Rights Watch has nothing to say"

upd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4idMAvtFnI
the same guy next day:
13:00 HRW sold out for Putin's money"
Russian media BS is no match for this one.

HRW release
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/07/24/ukraine-unguided-rockets-killing-civilians
If Putin is so influential that he has HRW as his pet, it's time to start worshipping him as God-Emperor of Imperium Humanum :D

JMA

07-26-2014, 04:50 PM

Wrong questions... what happens if Ukraine does not suppress the Russian aggression? What would Russia's next move be?

BTW AP... are you running interference for Obama or the Russians or both? Seriously.

Outlaw,

Let's say that Ukraine successfully suppresses the insurgency and the violence ends with a clear government victory. What does the state of play in Europe look like then? What are the long-term effects on the Russian-European and Russian-American relationships? How will it affect U.S. interests in Syria, Iran, and Central Asia? I think we are risking fixation on one issue at the expense of others, so how far do we go in pursuing this?

mirhond

07-26-2014, 05:24 PM

Cossacks on the warpath

http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.do?kozaki_viyska_donskogo_paradno_v idpravlyayutsya_voyuvati_proti_ukrayinskoyi_armiyi _video&objectId=468312 (http://24tv.ua home/showSingleNews.do?kozaki_viyska_donskogo_paradno_v idpravlyayutsya_voyuvati_proti_ukrayinskoyi_armiyi _video&objectId=468312)

It would be nice if they all will be killed in Donbass.

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 06:02 PM

Yes, it is extremely ridiculous, and also very obviously ridiculous. It's a good example of the Russian ineptness at handling information... who reads Interfax material anyway, and how many people are really going to believe it? The threat of an information campaign is measured not by its extent, but by its quality and its impact, areas where the Russians go badly wrong. Shoveling hotter fresher BS on top of old stale BS does not convince people. Eventually it just ends up discrediting the source.

Putin did of course get a patriotic bounce in popularity after Crimea, but how long will that last? Isn't there a deep-rooted cynicism and distrust toward official information in Russia? How long will it be before that takes over and the crude propaganda campaign starts shooting itself in the foot?

Outside of Russia Putin has a few admirers on the conspiracy theory fringe, largely among those who imagine him as a challenger to some imaginary "New World Order" construct and those who admire his strutting homophobic machismo. That's a fringe of a fringe, though, and one without influence. Of course those who really loathe the US will side with Russia by reflex, but that would be the case no matter what information goes around.

I really don't see Russian information operations as much of a threat. Extensive, yes... but effective? Are they selling the product? To who?

Yes, many people have been saying this since long before the Ukraine events.

Dayuahn--then you do not understand how they have been controlling the global news cyles and how the lancing works.

You evidently do not understand the target populations as well---the Russian population, the Crimea and eastern Ukrainians, and the Europeans. The US population was to a degree influenced by the US RT which actually has a large following and a number of US organizations and politicans.

I posted back a really long time ago in this thread---a chart depicting the depth of the information war.

It was working extremely well until the airliner crash and then crashed their information war with the plane.

See if you had understood the cycle then you would have noticed the first lance was Interfax, then followed by about 4-5 hrs later an extended article from RIA that set the tone to be picked up by the Global press as the press Googles as well looking for short article to pass on and act as filler.

Here in Berlin is a 100% Russian owned media company that is one of the worlds largest providers of video/video articles, film, and photo materials to the global news agencies, TV stations, and print media. So guess whose view point is being passed daily?

That is just the two news agencies---then look at the world wide web of news stations, TV stations and foreign reporters in the various countries that continued the drum beats---one story I tracked for six complete global news cycles.

By the way even CNN got caught carrying a complete fake report funneled to them by the information war. Yesterday a Brit TV reporter for RT UK can captured by the UA held of awhile and then deported--and he is not a friend of the Ukraine and reports in the UK.

The Maidan was the trigger for the Crimea and the eastern Ukraine---not the cause.

If you have been following Putin's comments since the Crimea you would have caught one video where he gave instructions to his NSC to analyze the entire range of colored revolts and the Arab Springs to see what Russia must do to protect itself. This comment was carried in clear text and in front of TVs---the world just raced over it.

Then over the last ten days a whole series of laws to do just that have been passed.

So explain to me again just how did the world know before the Maidan that Putin was "threatened" by the colored revolts when he himself did not voice that until three months ago?

Firn

07-26-2014, 07:07 PM

I think many in the West mistake themselves as the target audience for Russia's information operations through its mainstream media. How many Americans actually read/watch Russia Today, Interfax, and so on? I don't think the Russians are so incompetent as to not recognize that. During the Cold War, the Russians were more subtle by penetrating Western media outlets that they knew were well received by Western audiences; influencing reporters, sending in opinion pieces, and so on. Why would that strategy have changed now? The conspiracy theories spun by Russian-originated media IMO is aimed at the Russian audience.

Maybe this is not the best place to discuss it, but obviously the Kremlin's strategy is to tailor it's message to the audience. The Western world gets targeted by various means, be it think thanks, news stations, blogs, social media, online comments or so forth. We have the thread about it's links with European right (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20641&highlight=Russia+european) (and a least one Italian Mafioso) and the cyber and info ops (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20179&page=4&highlight=Russia+european) one.

A considerable problem of the Kremlin is of course that propaganda intended for Russian consumption, which is far to wild and crazy for almost all Western audience, still reaches across borders. In the case of MH17 it certainly hit the national news in Italy and Germany. In short the strategy is clear but the execution difficult and sometimes sloppy.

davidbfpo

07-26-2014, 08:11 PM

This article's theme is President Putin -v- Stelkov, but IMHO this admission is more important:
In Strelkov’s recent video posted online, he said he “could never have imagined” that of the more than 4.6 million people living in the Donetsk region, only about 1,000 volunteers were willing to join his rebel army to defend Novorossiya: “We can see anything but crowds of volunteers outside our gate,” admitted Strelkov, whose nom de guerre means “gunman” and whose real surname is Girkin.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/25/putin-s-number-one-gunman-in-ukraine-warns-him-of-possible-defeat.html

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 10:50 PM

Dayuhan

07-26-2014, 11:30 PM

Dayuahn--then you do not understand how they have been controlling the global news cyles and how the lancing works.

You evidently do not understand the target populations as well---the Russian population, the Crimea and eastern Ukrainians, and the Europeans. The US population was to a degree influenced by the US RT which actually has a large following and a number of US organizations and politicans.

I posted back a really long time ago in this thread---a chart depicting the depth of the information war.

Yes, we all know it's deep, it's wide, it's extensive in all dimensions. This is completely irrelevant to the core questions: is it effective? Is it actually selling the product? To answer that you need opinion polls and other indicators of public opinion, not charts depicting the structure of the information campaign.

For all it's depth and breadth, the Russian propaganda campaign is anything but sophisticated. The content is crude, often to the point of absurdity, as you regularly point out. Bombarding people with ridiculous claims and wild accusations does not convince, and it can very easily bounce back on the source.

I wonder if the Russians have examined the lessons of the US domestic propaganda campaign supporting war on Iraq. That campaign was effective... at first. Americans were all too willing to believe that Saddam was a saber-toothed threat, an AQ-supporting, WMD-armed monster who had to be removed. They were willing to support the war, as long as it went well. How long did that last?

Obviously it's difficult to know whether Russians really believe everything the government throws at them, but given their quite extended experience with managed information and state propaganda, it seems likely that there's a lot of doubt and a lot of cynicism about the official line, especially in urban areas with better access to outside news sources. Patriotic groundswells are transient phenomena, and when they're done crudely managed propaganda becomes more liability than asset.

Again, the extent, depth and breadth of an information campaign don't mean a thing if the content is crap. The question is not "who where does it reach", but "who does it convince"... because unconvincing propaganda only undermines its source.

So explain to me again just how did the world know before the Maidan that Putin was "threatened" by the colored revolts when he himself did not voice that until three months ago?

Every authoritarian government is threatened by these events, especially when they start showing signs of being contagious. The semi-spontaneous urban insurrection has been high on the list of authoritarian nightmares since the storming of the Bastille (at least), and given the events that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union it is obviously going to be a concern of the Russian oligarchy. Controlling information has always been hard in urban environments, and today's information environment exacerbates that, so any time precedents start emerging, authoritarian governments are going to start worrying. The Arab Spring precedent was an obvious threat to corrupt and autocratic governments, and it was certainly a threat to people like Putin, Lukashenko, and Yanukovych, whether they publicly voiced that threat or not. You can bet your last peso that when the Ukrainians went to the streets there was a whole lot of nervous concern over domestic conditions in Moscow and Minsk, whether or not anything was publicly said.

The Chinese government doesn't talk about that threat: there's good reason not to, as talking about it would only encourage what they fear. That doesn't mean they don't feel threatened.

BrentWilliams

07-27-2014, 02:48 AM

Rather interesting article in the Washington Post. Ukraine seems to be continuing the ground offensive.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-trade-accusations-of-cross-border-shelling/2014/07/26/d41d4b0a-14b4-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html

Government troops were engaged in a pitched battle with rebels on Saturday just outside the separatist bastion of Donetsk and plan to advance next into the city that has been at the heart of the pro-Russian insurgency.

If the army succeeds in retaking Horlivka, a city of almost 300,000 people where fighting was fierce Saturday, they will be within a few miles of Donetsk. Rebels have held sway there since the spring, ruling what they call the Donetsk People’s Republic. Cars created roadblocks out of town Saturday, and the railway station was packed with people desperate to board the next train out.

It is looking increasenly likely that the Ukraine will succeed unless Russia directly intervenes on the ground. If they do, Europe and the United States is almost certain to respond with economic sanction that will cripple the Russian economy. The current outline of sanctions outlined after the Malaysian airlines flight would be vastly expanded. One would also think aid in weapons and training would be on the table. If Russia doesn't directly intervene, what is to stop the Ukraine from turing their attention to Crimea next?

kaur

07-27-2014, 04:20 AM

Two interesting interceptions by SBU in Russian. In first one DPR leader Borodai is getting some instructions from former Russian presidentianl administration and United Russia party official Chesnakov. It seems that Borodai arrived from Russia with suitcases full of money and he asks for more. Chesnakov gives to Borodai instructions with what message should give interview Girkin/Strelkov ( Putin is Russkii Mir leader and i'm his subordinate). It seems that Chesnakov is back in administration with Surkov covering Ukraine. During second intercept Borodai's deputy is complaining how stupidly Girkin is acting in Donetsk.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GH-BdpHf7jg

JMA

07-27-2014, 05:43 AM

Did he say what the US was going to do about it?

From JCoS General Dempsey:

“You’ve got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives,” he said. “They clearly are on a path to assert themselves differently not just in Eastern Europe, but Europe in the main, and towards the United States.”

Shchors

07-27-2014, 05:47 AM

There have been few detailed descriptions in Western publications of the campaign by the Ukrainian Army to expel the Russian inspired separatists from East Ukraine. What first started in mid-April 2014 as a low level insurgency led by Russian GRU spetsnaz operatives that was centered in an urban bastion named Sloviansk, has since transformed into essentially a conventional war between 30,000 attacking Ukrainians against 10,000 defending Russians in an area 9,000 square miles in size, which encompasses numerous cities, one of them a one million plus metropolis - the City of Donetsk. From what I have been able to extrapolate from sketchy press releases from the Ukrainian armed forces and the more detailed but yet unverified situation reports from the Russian commanders, the Ukrainians, while tactically unsophisticated, have acquired enough combat experience to mount what, by all accounts is a rather elegant and nuanced campaign. The Ukrainians have initiated simultaneous battalion sized armored maneuvers on multiple fronts to spread out the defenders. The operation has also revealed attempts to control tempo and timing of sequential attacks. The Ukrainians also sent a brigade-sized mechanized column in a daring (and perhaps ill advised) flanking maneuver to try to seal off the Russian border. These troops are now trapped against the border for over two weeks but are still dug in and resupplied by parachute drop. (The Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff, General Muzychko, has decided to ignore the pleas of these troops for a relief offensive and has shifted reserves elsewhere) The Russians have proved to be the better infantry commanders (all are veterans of the Chechen Wars, Bosnia and Georgia) and have orchestrated a daring maneuver themselves when 1500 escaped from encirclement in Sloviansk at the very last moment. However, Ukrainian armor and artillery crews have gradually acquired competence and have buttressed their unreliable mech infantry with volunteer battalions, which make up for their lack of training with enthusiasm. (The mech infantry is comprised of recruits, while the specialists are contract soldiers) Throughout, the separatists have utilized state-of-the art MANPADS, with which they have downed some 10 attack helicopters and 6 attack warplanes. Despite the heavy losses, the small and outdated Ukrainian air force continues to fly 10-15 close air support sorties daily, with noticeable effect. Moreover, the Russians have used Kornet and Konkurs anti-tank missiles against Ukrainian tanks (upgraded old T-64s). The separatists have also acquired close to 100 T-64 and T-72 tanks themselves, with generous numbers of artillery and rockets, all smuggled over the border from Russia. As we all know, recently they even acquired BUK anti-air systems, with tragic results to passengers of Malaysian Airlines. Casualties so far amount to approximately 1,500 to 2,000 KIA and wounded on each side. As always, the big killer in the steppe is massed artillery. In fact, the Russians have fired artillery support from across the border. As of today, July 25, 2014, the Ukrainians appear to have turned the flank of a strong redoubt in Horlivka (which opens the way towards Donetsk from the north) and are close to seizing an important road junction at Debaltsevo, along a key supply line. All of these names would have been familiar to WWII era Red Army and Wehrmacht commanders, as bloody battles were fought to seize and to hold these locations in the Great Patriotic War. If Russia does not intervene directly or injects substantial irregular reinforcements soon (at least 5,000), the Ukrainians may have their first ever victorious campaign against Russia in history. (They won a few small battles in 1919 but never a war) One of the ironies of this entire struggle is that the people of Donetsk now realize that Putin never intended to liberate them and, to the contrary, has ruined their region economically for years to come. Ukraine looks like a better option and many are starting to see Kyiv as the lesser of two evils. Putin's adventures in Crimea and Donetsk have led to unintended consequences; (1) a Ukraine unified for the first time in its history, regardless of language (many of the Ukrainian fighters speak Russian; the orders in the Ukrainian army at the tactical level are issued in Russian);(2) the growth of national myths forged in a war with Russia that may develop into a true Ukrainian nationalism (and a break from Russia once and for all) and (3) disenchantment with Putin among nationalist voters in Russia proper (most of the blue collar population) which may threaten his hold on political power at the next election. There is some talk of Igor Strelkov, the Russian field commander in Donetsk, as a viable alternate candidate (unless Putin has him killed at the front). In any case, this war holds valuable lessons regarding the effectiveness of MANPADS against tactical air as well as the dynamics of a conventional war where neither side has air superiority. It offers a conflict involving urban warfare as well as broad mechanized maneuver and where artillery is still the king of battle.

JMA

07-27-2014, 05:55 AM

Thanks Shchors, interesting perspective.

AmericanPride

07-27-2014, 06:35 AM

BTW AP... are you running interference for Obama or the Russians or both? Seriously.

That's for you to find out. :rolleyes:

AmericanPride

07-27-2014, 06:55 AM

Wrong questions... what happens if Ukraine does not suppress the Russian aggression? What would Russia's next move be?

BTW - it is the right question. From the Russian foreign ministry today (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-eu-sanctions-threat-security/25471190.html):

"The additional sanction list is direct evidence that the EU countries have set a course for fully phasing out cooperation with Russia over the issues of international and regional security. This includes the fight against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, organized crime, and other new challenges and dangers," a statement said.

Here's the problem: the U.S. is in retrenchment. One, it's exhausted from the War on Terrorism. Two, it's more or less paralyzed by bitter political infighting (and it doesn't look like the mid-term elections will ease that pressure). And this infighting is sharpened by the measurable decline in the U.S.' relative power. Three, demands for U.S. actions abroad have not declined. Ukraine. Iran. Iraq. Syria. Libya. The list goes on.

The U.S. is not a hegemon. It does not have the power to unilaterally enforce it demands on any state or combination of states. The last year's worth of events have made this painfully obvious. It's not a matter of mustering sufficient political will. That's an unrealistic expectation. Consequently, the U.S. now more than any time in its recent history must rely on diplomacy to achieve its interests. What outcome in Ukraine is in the best U.S. interest? What kind of relationship with Russia is in the U.S. interest? What are the linkages between the U.S.-Russian relationship and other U.S. interests around the world? These are questions you have failed to answer. Ukraine is not the only issue - or the most important one - facing the U.S.

So - we freeze out the Russians because of Ukraine. Fine. What next? Does the U.S. now commit itself to Ukraine's security for the foreseeable future? To what extent is that commitment elevated? NATO membership? What signal does increased U.S. commitment to Ukraine send to Moscow? Where does the cycle of escalation end? How will Moscow now act as a spoiler in the international arena on issues of U.S. interest?

AmericanPride

07-27-2014, 07:04 AM

It is looking increasenly likely that the Ukraine will succeed unless Russia directly intervenes on the ground. If they do, Europe and the United States is almost certain to respond with economic sanction that will cripple the Russian economy. The current outline of sanctions outlined after the Malaysian airlines flight would be vastly expanded. One would also think aid in weapons and training would be on the table. If Russia doesn't directly intervene, what is to stop the Ukraine from turing their attention to Crimea next?

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 07:32 AM

Yes, we all know it's deep, it's wide, it's extensive in all dimensions. This is completely irrelevant to the core questions: is it effective? Is it actually selling the product? To answer that you need opinion polls and other indicators of public opinion, not charts depicting the structure of the information campaign.

For all it's depth and breadth, the Russian propaganda campaign is anything but sophisticated. The content is crude, often to the point of absurdity, as you regularly point out. Bombarding people with ridiculous claims and wild accusations does not convince, and it can very easily bounce back on the source.

I wonder if the Russians have examined the lessons of the US domestic propaganda campaign supporting war on Iraq. That campaign was effective... at first. Americans were all too willing to believe that Saddam was a saber-toothed threat, an AQ-supporting, WMD-armed monster who had to be removed. They were willing to support the war, as long as it went well. How long did that last?

Obviously it's difficult to know whether Russians really believe everything the government throws at them, but given their quite extended experience with managed information and state propaganda, it seems likely that there's a lot of doubt and a lot of cynicism about the official line, especially in urban areas with better access to outside news sources. Patriotic groundswells are transient phenomena, and when they're done crudely managed propaganda becomes more liability than asset.

Again, the extent, depth and breadth of an information campaign don't mean a thing if the content is crap. The question is not "who where does it reach", but "who does it convince"... because unconvincing propaganda only undermines its source.

Every authoritarian government is threatened by these events, especially when they start showing signs of being contagious. The semi-spontaneous urban insurrection has been high on the list of authoritarian nightmares since the storming of the Bastille (at least), and given the events that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union it is obviously going to be a concern of the Russian oligarchy. Controlling information has always been hard in urban environments, and today's information environment exacerbates that, so any time precedents start emerging, authoritarian governments are going to start worrying. The Arab Spring precedent was an obvious threat to corrupt and autocratic governments, and it was certainly a threat to people like Putin, Lukashenko, and Yanukovych, whether they publicly voiced that threat or not. You can bet your last peso that when the Ukrainians went to the streets there was a whole lot of nervous concern over domestic conditions in Moscow and Minsk, whether or not anything was publicly said.

The Chinese government doesn't talk about that threat: there's good reason not to, as talking about it would only encourage what they fear. That doesn't mean they don't feel threatened.

Actually Dayuhan then you quite do not understand the depth of it's pull here in Europe, the Ukraine where it is being used very effectively as well as in Russia where Putin's poll numbers are still off the charts.

Secondly, colored revolts threaten in fact every type of government why-it usually is about something that the population as a whole takes issues with---again it is all about the rule of law and good governance which in the case of say the Ukraine was using the EU image to voice it's displeasure with the government rit large.

Actually the Ukraine did something unnoticed from the world--it actually dissolved their Communist Party---one of the core reasons that in the eastern countries not members of the EU has been leading the way of these mini Russian revolts---notice it was forbidden even in Germany as a subversive organization which it still is.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 07:51 AM

BTW - it is the right question. From the Russian foreign ministry today (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-eu-sanctions-threat-security/25471190.html):

Here's the problem: the U.S. is in retrenchment. One, it's exhausted from the War on Terrorism. Two, it's more or less paralyzed by bitter political infighting (and it doesn't look like the mid-term elections will ease that pressure). And this infighting is sharpened by the measurable decline in the U.S.' relative power. Three, demands for U.S. actions abroad have not declined. Ukraine. Iran. Iraq. Syria. Libya. The list goes on.

The U.S. is not a hegemon. It does not have the power to unilaterally enforce it demands on any state or combination of states. The last year's worth of events have made this painfully obvious. It's not a matter of mustering sufficient political will. That's an unrealistic expectation. Consequently, the U.S. now more than any time in its recent history must rely on diplomacy to achieve its interests. What outcome in Ukraine is in the best U.S. interest? What kind of relationship with Russia is in the U.S. interest? What are the linkages between the U.S.-Russian relationship and other U.S. interests around the world? These are questions you have failed to answer. Ukraine is not the only issue - or the most important one - facing the U.S.

So - we freeze out the Russians because of Ukraine. Fine. What next? Does the U.S. now commit itself to Ukraine's security for the foreseeable future? To what extent is that commitment elevated? NATO membership? What signal does increased U.S. commitment to Ukraine send to Moscow? Where does the cycle of escalation end? How will Moscow now act as a spoiler in the international arena on issues of U.S. interest?

AP--this has been a battle of values and will be going forward much as the Cold War was about the battle of ideologies. By the way the US is an hegemon---via it's global economic power just check the current set of sanctions against Russia.

Why values---even when Dayuhan seems t think it is already known that the colored revolts and the Arab Springs are threats to governments --he failed to ask the follow on question ---why is that?

It is all about and again it seems to be a constant repeat---the rule of law and good governance---but here is the difference---determined by the effected populations and their definitions of those two concepts not ours, the EU or China for that matter.

Why does the Ukraine look towards Europe---it is this ideal that has stuck in their heads---at least the police function a little bit equally for all, the economic system does not close everyone out who is not a member of the oligarchs or ruling elite and the court system tends to generally be fair. Meaning it is really about jobs, security and personal development for a family and their children --it sounds hooky but it is their view of the world not ours as the the US lost that drive a long time ago if one looks at current US politics.

The Ukrainians are still in that Soviet era industrial age of counting of tons not quality---will it hurt to adjust to the EU yes it will but they are willing to try it---that is theiir decision not the US/EU or Russia's.

It seems that they are willing to fight and die for that set of values--once a ragtag group of individuals they are with the increasing fighting gaining experience from the day to day combat and this is the big key---they are fighting for their sovereignty and their flag not for the Red Flag or the EU flag--but theirs that actually they tried to do in 1945 but failed as the Red Army used an entire Corp to suppress it.

When the SU fell there was a massive sigh of relieve even in Moscow that it might be able to move forward economically, shake off the could corrupt legal/political/party system and somehow become like "Europe". Historically Russia has always tried to reach out to the West.

Putin has shoved that back under the rug---one just needs to talk to the young Russians here in Berlin that are in envy of the "German" model and their total dislike for Putin to fully understand why Putin fears the colored revolts. The young well educated-- the core of a country are leaving Russia in droves. Why? German/EU values.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 08:13 AM

AP--just a side comment---watch for small tidbits of reporting coming out of Moscow in the coming days of a massive internal inside the inner circle to Putin ongoing shouting match between the oligarchs and the hardliners on whether to continue or to pull back.

The oligarchs side says the economy being destroyed is not worth the puesdo ethnic nationalism that Putin has been pushing as at some point it will hit the population hard and which is actually now starting to happen. They also fear the formal isolation which will kill any chance of industrial development for the next 10 years thus pushing Russia even more backwards.

Thus the hardliners heavy push into law all the new "anti-color" laws. the hardliners are anti West united by their hatred of the West and the values the West represent to them and the decadence of the West.

We will see the outcome of that internal debate in the Ukraine in the coming days---more weapons and troops or less and throttling back of the separatists.

If the hardliners win out in the debate--then seriously to heart the words the Joint Chief of Staff General Dempsey released in his article yesterday.

Something interesting that came up in comments yesterday out of a Russian western think tank in Moscow.

Throughout the eastern Ukraine crisis, now in its fourth month, Putin and his officials have consistently portrayed the conflict as Ukraine's unprincipled assault on its own citizens, rather than as a move to take back a sizeable part of the country seized by heavily armed separatists.

The aim is to discredit the Kiev authorities without openly opposing them. Putin even spoke face-to-face in June with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who had just been elected following the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych in the wake of months of mass protests. But on Tuesday, he stepped up the aspersions in a meeting with his security council.

"True, they held elections after the takeover," Putin said. "However, for some strange reason, power ended up again in the hands of those who either funded or carried out this takeover."

This is where the long game appears to take shape.

By aggressively suggesting that Ukraine's instability is a prelude to Western designs on Russia, Putin not only deflects attention away from the plane crash, but strikes a chord in the Russian psyche. Russia characteristically sees itself as both a vast and mighty world power and as forever beleaguered by devious and violent forces dating back to the Mongol hordes and later including Napoleonic France, Poland, Sweden and, finally, Nazi Germany.

Even as he expresses concern about Russia's vulnerability, Putin also declares that "the recipes used regarding weaker states fraught with internal conflict will not work with us."

Dayuhan--take notice of this comment concerning the Russian psyche---it is the target of the information war not the US.

mirhond

07-27-2014, 09:49 AM

separatists have also acquired close to 100 T-64 and T-72 tanks themselves, with generous numbers of artillery and rockets, all smuggled over the border from Russia.

if this documenthttp://cyber-berkut.org/docs/t1-1.PNG
isn't a fake, your statement is far from truth

in short: Ukrarmy lost dosens of combat vehicles and other military pieces to separatists

(1) a Ukraine unified for the first time in its history, regardless of language (many of the Ukrainian fighters speak Russian; the orders in the Ukrainian army at the tactical level are issued in Russian);(2) the growth of national myths forged in a war with Russia that may develop into a true Ukrainian nationalism (and a break from Russia once and for all)

I believe you just did'nt bothered to read Wikipedia article about Ukraine, that's why your post shows lack of historical knowledge.
In short: Ukraine once already was an independent state, for a short time after Russian revolution. Ukrainian exclusive nationalism has a long and glorious story.

зы. К чему эта маскировка под невежду, товарищ Щорс, вы же украинский коммунист и прекрасно знаете историю своей Родины, а так же всю ту хуиту, что происходит сейчас на Юго-Востоке :)

Dayuhan

07-27-2014, 10:10 AM

Actually Dayuhan then you quite do not understand the depth of it's pull here in Europe, the Ukraine where it is being used very effectively as well as in Russia where Putin's poll numbers are still off the charts.

Didn't you just post this piece suggesting that in some quarters at least there's a perception that Putin's popularity is sliding?

Strelkov’s mission in Ukraine, whoever gave it to him, has been bigger than just the defense of the DPR. Strelkov claims to be defending Putin’s reputation and power in Russia, too. In an interview with The Daily Beast on Thursday, Strelkov adviser Druzd spoke about the importance of Russians coming to Donbass in order to prevent a revolution like the Maidan in Kiev from spreading to Moscow.

“Putin’s popularity is fading away, since nobody has stopped the slaughter of Russians in Donbass," Druzd said. “The president’s approval rating is much lower in Moscow and St. Petersburg than in the provinces. As we know, revolutions—both French and October—were done in capitals; unfortunately, we cannot exclude attempts of the Maidan type of protests in Moscow,” Druzd explained. “For now Russia mostly sends us information and humanitarian help,” he said, when what the rebels need to defend Russian interests is “significant military support.”

Putin is increasingly between a rock and a hard place: nationalists will still give him credit for taking Crimea, but in politics you're only as good as your last show, and if he doesn't act in the Ukraine he will be accused of abandoning his proxies (an accusation with which Americans will feel some sympathy). If he does move, the oligarchs and the licit and illicit business community will accuse him of risking damage to both the Russian economy and to their individual economies. In short, he's moving into a situation where different sides of his support base have widely divergent interests and demands. Not a comfortable place to be.

Secondly, colored revolts threaten in fact every type of government why-it usually is about something that the population as a whole takes issues with---again it is all about the rule of law and good governance which in the case of say the Ukraine was using the EU image to voice it's displeasure with the government rit large.

Color revolutions specifically threaten governments where the populace does not feel that it has the ability to change the government, typically dictatorships and pseudo-dictatorships. Where the populace has confidence in the electoral system, they may take to the streets when they see lousy government, but they generally won't directly try to overthrow the government, because they know that in due time they can overthrow it legally with a lot less risk and trouble. I think you'll find that the key determinant that pushes public unrest to the color revolution level is less public perception of bad governance than the public's confidence in existing mechanisms for changing governance. Democratic governments need to be worried about being voted out if they don't deliver good governance, but they face much less threat from color revolutions than countries that are either non-democratic or where the public has little or no confidence in the nominally democratic mechanisms.

Dayuhan--take notice of this comment concerning the Russian psyche---it is the target of the information war not the US.

I suppose that's why they don't bother publishing RT in English, or hiring stooges to pack the comments sections of English-language publications...

Propaganda is advertising by another name. As with any type of advertising, the measure of success is not the structure of your campaign or the number of people it reaches. The only relevant measure of success is sales of the product. The Russian propaganda campaign is extensive and the structure of it is fairly sophisticated. The content remains extremely crude, and structure without content gets you nowhere. The question remains... who is being convinced, and where? That question can only be answered with actual evidence... market research as it were. Anecdotal evidence doesn't count.

Firn

07-27-2014, 10:49 AM

I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine.

I actually agree mostly, but I want to ask: What is a direction Russian intervention in your opinion? What isn't open-ended to this war, with the Crimea occupied by Russia and Russian men and Russian weapons reinforcing Russias shadow armies lead by Russian veterans with it's limited local support while the Russian army shells Ukrainian forces from Russia proper?

I have a pretty hard time to draw a line...

@davidpfbo: There might also be considerable differences from city to city, area to area with the larger cities giving a better idea then the smaller ones in which extremes are more likely to be observed. All in all the local support for the shadowy Russian invasion isn't certainly as big as the Kremlin would have hoped. Weapons are certainly not the bottleneck.

@Shchors: Maybe you could open a new thread about the strictly military aspect of the conflict. This thread contains already so many strands. Thanks anyway.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 11:01 AM

[QUOTE=mirhond;159172]if this documenthttp://cyber-berkut.org/docs/t1-1.PNG
isn't a fake, your statement is far from truth

in short: Ukrarmy lost dosens of combat vehicles and other military pieces to separatists

I believe you just did'nt bothered to read Wikipedia article about Ukraine, that's why your post shows lack of historical knowledge.
In short: Ukraine once already was an independent state, for a short time after Russian revolution. Ukrainian exclusive nationalism has a long and glorious story.

So comrade non knowing expert mirhond---just what about those T64s that you once claimed here in SWJ were stolen from the Ukrainians which turned out to be registered to the Russian Army complete with former Russian military base numbers that somehow made it across that from Putin lied about "enhanced security border" that the famous FSB knows nothing about.

come on comrade mirhond get with the progam.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 11:08 AM

Didn't you just post this piece suggesting that in some quarters at least there's a perception that Putin's popularity is sliding?

Putin is increasingly between a rock and a hard place: nationalists will still give him credit for taking Crimea, but in politics you're only as good as your last show, and if he doesn't act in the Ukraine he will be accused of abandoning his proxies (an accusation with which Americans will feel some sympathy). If he does move, the oligarchs and the licit and illicit business community will accuse him of risking damage to both the Russian economy and to their individual economies. In short, he's moving into a situation where different sides of his support base have widely divergent interests and demands. Not a comfortable place to be.

Color revolutions specifically threaten governments where the populace does not feel that it has the ability to change the government, typically dictatorships and pseudo-dictatorships. Where the populace has confidence in the electoral system, they may take to the streets when they see lousy government, but they generally won't directly try to overthrow the government, because they know that in due time they can overthrow it legally with a lot less risk and trouble. I think you'll find that the key determinant that pushes public unrest to the color revolution level is less public perception of bad governance than the public's confidence in existing mechanisms for changing governance. Democratic governments need to be worried about being voted out if they don't deliver good governance, but they face much less threat from color revolutions than countries that are either non-democratic or where the public has little or no confidence in the nominally democratic mechanisms.

I suppose that's why they don't bother publishing RT in English, or hiring stooges to pack the comments sections of English-language publications...

Propaganda is advertising by another name. As with any type of advertising, the measure of success is not the structure of your campaign or the number of people it reaches. The only relevant measure of success is sales of the product. The Russian propaganda campaign is extensive and the structure of it is fairly sophisticated. The content remains extremely crude, and structure without content gets you nowhere. The question remains... who is being convinced, and where? That question can only be answered with actual evidence... market research as it were. Anecdotal evidence doesn't count.

Dayuhan--thanks for finally agreeing even if you take 2000 words to agree and a couple of roundabout thought processes. You need to shorten the thoughts.

You really do need to understand the use of propaganda---we use classify it --white, grey and black and believe me the white sometimes actually appears to be the truth. Doubt seriously if you have ever worked in a section that drove propaganda---it would open you eyes and make you even question articles that you quoted in the past.

Really go back and dig out the chart I posted here in this thread about the extent and depth of their info war and then tell me it is not and or was not grabbing.

Then come back with comments focused on the extent of that chart and the campaign it outlines and then ask yourself can I even trust the materials I myself find good?

And Dayuhan---finally write something that you yourself put together---cutting and pasting is now a great research tool- if you like Microsoft--and it is if one likes to debate. Debating wastes time and effort these days as it in the end tends to go nowhere.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 11:12 AM

From JCoS General Dempsey:

“You’ve got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives,” he said. “They clearly are on a path to assert themselves differently not just in Eastern Europe, but Europe in the main, and towards the United States.”

So Dayuhan---just what does this statement say from the highest thinker in the US military? It tends to support the concept of the new Russian military doctrine does it not with it's use in supporting political warfare.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 11:29 AM

Dayuhan---part of the problem with propaganda is at what point does a national leader start to believe his own "press" or reverse asked at what point does in fact the propaganda reflect the thinking of a national leader?.

Currently I think Putin is all in and he is doing everything possibly short to armed invasion to support the Russian mercenaries because to not do so violates his own propaganda and that would be then viewed as a defeat.

In the world of international relations when one country actively uses indirect fire support ie artillery strikes to support combatant mercenaries across the border then in fact that can and is often interpreted as an act of war by the country firing the artillery.

Now do you understand Dempsey's comments? Then it can no longer be assumed that Putin is playing by the international rules but by his own and they can in fact be determined to be extremely dangerous---this is no longer a game of "self determination" based on ethnicity and language it is about a wannabe superpower who has lost control of his proxy and that proxy is dragging that superpower down a rat hole again based on the superpower believing his own "press".

Militants had attacked positions of the Ukrainian marines near Diakovo on the south of the Luhansk region. The attack was carried out after more than an hour of shelling of the position from the territory of the Russian Federation.

This was reported to UkrInform by a soldier of an airmobile brigade soldier, which was attacked.

«Just repelled an attack of militants. We were shelled by mortars and AGS. There are no killed or wounded on our side. For now all has subsided,» — he said.

According to the soldier, before the attack the position was shelled for more than an hour from the territory of the Russian Federation. The marine assumed that the shelling was carried out from a 152 mm self-propelled artillery system «Acacia».

He also pointed out that the Ukrainian military did not open retaliatory fire as «it is Russia there».

Firn

07-27-2014, 11:34 AM

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 11:47 AM

This is the swing in public opinion within Germany that Putin and his info war guys cannot understand.

Prior to the polling released this weekend only about 18-23% depending on the week done supported any form of really hard sanctions that would cost German jobs.

Polling released this weekend after the crash indication a swing to 52% of all Germans asked are in favor of hard sanctions being applied to Russian even and this is the key even if it costs German jobs and the economy slows. Pollers indicate that anger towards Russia is actually climbing and anticipate seeing higher numbers next week.

That is a massive shift in the German public opinion which has been rather neutral in the whole matter and has to a degree responded to the information war directed at them by Russia.

Critical for Putin is ----Merkel tends to follow her population's wishes.

Couple this with the same negative attitude by the Dutch the largest single trading partner of Russia also indicating they want harder sanctions--Putin has an economic problem now on his hands he can no longer control by his info war.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/umfrage-zu-russland-deutsche-befuerworten-haertere-sanktionen-a-983083.html

JMA

07-27-2014, 12:57 PM

52% in favour of 'hard sanctions'... does anyone know what the other 48% want?

This is the swing in public opinion within Germany that Putin and his info war guys cannot understand.

Prior to the polling released this weekend only about 18-23% depending on the week done supported any form of really hard sanctions that would cost German jobs.

Polling released this weekend after the crash indication a swing to 52% of all Germans asked are in favor of hard sanctions being applied to Russian even and this is the key even if it costs German jobs and the economy slows. Pollers indicate that anger towards Russia is actually climbing and anticipate seeing higher numbers next week.

That is a massive shift in the German public opinion which has been rather neutral in the whole matter and has to a degree responded to the information war directed at them by Russia.

Critical for Putin is ----Merkel tends to follow her population's wishes.

Couple this with the same negative attitude by the Dutch the largest single trading partner of Russia also indicating they want harder sanctions--Putin has an economic problem now on his hands he can no longer control by his info war.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/umfrage-zu-russland-deutsche-befuerworten-haertere-sanktionen-a-983083.html

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 01:29 PM

52% in favour of 'hard sanctions'... does anyone know what the other 48% want?

JMA--it was a mix---will chase down the other percentage.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 01:34 PM

Looks as if the Russians are talking a more directive control of the separatist movement--pushing the locals to the side.

So goes the illusion that it was all about the locals to begin with---led yesterday to the Ukrainian comment--and they believed the propaganda and now get this for their dying for the self determination idea?

Russian might have just split the separatists as one of the top ex Alpha Commanders who initially indicated that the insurgents did have a Buk is reported to have taken his troops off the battlefield with the appearance of Russian individuals taking over the movement.

The direct Russian control of this is becoming apparent the longer this goes on.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-rebels-insight-idUSKBN0FW07020140727

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 02:11 PM

It seems when Russian soldiers upload their photos to the Russian equivalent of Facebook they did not seem to know that the uploaded photos show the date/time stamp as well as a geo tag with the grid coordinates where the photo was taken.

This same particular solider uploaded a whole series showing his artillery unit firing into the Ukraine-and claiming they were firing into the Ukraine--which has been the OSINT confirmation to the classified side that the US has been referring to when they talk about Russian shelling of the Ukraine.

Now in their news agency RIA from today ---the "poor" Russian solider is complaining that maybe his account has been hacked as he has heard about such things happening from the West. Great new excuse---hey it was not me I have been hacked!---but the photos are real.

Surprised the GRU has not thrown him in a deep dark jail somewhere in Siberia. But again he is just an artilleryman.

Dayuhan---this is an excellent example of social media being turned around as a piece of information warfare from both sides with now the Russians backpedalling.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140725/191243073/Russian-Soldier-Surprised-by-Battering-Ukraine-Photos-Says.html

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 02:19 PM

Through the fog of war the current situation is more or less like that:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/East_Ukraine_conflict_%28English_language_version% 29.png

The yellow area is territory formerly controlled to a large degree by the (Pro)Russians. The liberated areas of the two oblasts are generally less densly populated then the remaining one, although it is quite likey that at least 200.000 have left it.

With the considerable difficulties to find willing soldiers among the roughly 2 million people living still in (Pro)Russian areas and the Ukrainian successes the great influx of Russian men and Russian weapons becomes quite understandable from a purly military point of view. The Ukrainian government can still directly recruit, with obvious difficulties of course, men and women out of an area with 40 millions people.

firn--watch for the recapture of Horlivka--that one is critical to the UA ---that is the key Russian resupply LOC- transit point to the Donetsk--if that is cut then the supplies have a much harder time getting into the Donetsk.

What is interesting is how this envelopment is steadily moving forward---looks like the airborne units, their SF and the old Alpha units are taking the fight forward followed up by the UA and the NG to hold and clear.

Shchors

07-27-2014, 05:28 PM

You just attached a report from the military judge advocate in the Dnipropetrovsk military district regarding ongoing investigations into instances of Ukrainian armor falling into the hands of the Russian separatists on the territory of Ukraine (there is the suspicion that certain military personnel at arms depots allowed these losses without a fight) I agree that these pieces of equipment fall well short of 100. But what does that have to do with Russian armor sneaking across the border into the Donbas? Video evidence of such incursions are multiple and overwhelming. I fail to see your point. And why should I read anything in Wikepedia? By the way, thanks for attaching this document. If authentic, it is a valuable source for future citation.

AmericanPride

07-27-2014, 06:43 PM

So Dayuhan---just what does this statement say from the highest thinker in the US military? It tends to support the concept of the new Russian military doctrine does it not with it's use in supporting political warfare.

My question is why (1) why did it take this long to formulate a response and (2) if Russia is such a threat, why do 20-year old war plans need to be 'dusted off'? Why aren't there current plans already in place? As I see it, U.S. foreign policy towards Russia (and in general) is (still) reactionary equipped without foresight.

What is a direction Russian intervention in your opinion? What isn't open-ended to this war, with the Crimea occupied by Russia and Russian men and Russian weapons reinforcing Russias shadow armies lead by Russian veterans with it's limited local support while the Russian army shells Ukrainian forces from Russia proper?

I look at Crimea and eastern Ukraine as separate conflicts - not because the belligerents are different but because I think Russia's goals are different; hence the different strategy for Crimea (direct occupation) and eastern Ukraine (proxy insurgency). There's a continuum of commitment and intervention, with no interference on one end and formal, overt military operations on the other. Though it strains credulity in the West, Russia can still claim a measure of deniability and that gives them the political space to push for a negotiated settlement. Outright occupation would raise a lot of questions about the end-state and place a great burden upon Russia's credibility as a great power (and yes, I would argue Russia is a great power, ranked #3 after the U.S. and China).

AP--this has been a battle of values and will be going forward much as the Cold War was about the battle of ideologies. By the way the US is an hegemon---via it's global economic power just check the current set of sanctions against Russia.

This isn't a battle about values. It's a battle about the future of a country that has for 20 years attempted to maintain a delicate balance between two competing power centers. Its economic crisis triggered a political one, sparking a security one. And no - the U.S. is not a hegemon, otherwise it would have imposed its interests in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. The U.S. is by far the world's most significant power, but it does not have the capabilities to impose its will on every single country or combination of countries. Those capabilities peaked in the 1990s and the Iraq War marked the start of relative decline.

A considerable problem of the Kremlin is of course that propaganda intended for Russian consumption, which is far to wild and crazy for almost all Western audience, still reaches across borders. In the case of MH17 it certainly hit the national news in Italy and Germany. In short the strategy is clear but the execution difficult and sometimes sloppy.

That'd be an interesting case study about blowback of information operations in the contemporary environment.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 06:47 PM

This is the 16th version released by the Russians today by RIA as they attempt to side track the accusations that the Russian mercenaries shot down the airliner.

Appears now that the US supports the Russia released version that it was the Ukrainians. Not sure how the Russians some how think the US indirectly admitted it--but again it was that unnamed Russian Defense Ministry guy.

Information was released to day by the black box analysis team---the plane was hit by a missile explosion that went completely through the aircraft.

MOSCOW, July 27 (RIA Novosti) – The United States has indirectly admitted that Kiev’s air defense systems were present near Donetsk when the Malaysia Airlines plane crashed, thus confirming the data of Russian satellites, a senior source in the Russian Defense Ministry told RIA Novosti on Sunday.

"In his statement, the White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest implicitly acknowledged that Ukraine’s air defense systems had been present in the Donetsk area, although he claimed they had not been operating," the source said, commenting on Earnest’s words that the missile that hit the flight MH17 was launched from the area controlled by the militia.

The source stressed that the United States thus confirmed the authenticity of the data, provided by the images from Russian satellites at a special briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry on July 21. It was stated during that briefing that Ukraine’s air defense forces had four Buk-M1 missile systems near the city of Donetsk.

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 06:58 PM

My question is why (1) why did it take this long to formulate a response and (2) if Russia is such a threat, why do 20-year old war plans need to be 'dusted off'? Why aren't there current plans already in place? As I see it, U.S. foreign policy towards Russia (and in general) is (still) reactionary equipped without foresight.

I look at Crimea and eastern Ukraine as separate conflicts - not because the belligerents are different but because I think Russia's goals are different; hence the different strategy for Crimea (direct occupation) and eastern Ukraine (proxy insurgency). There's a continuum of commitment and intervention, with no interference on one end and formal, overt military operations on the other. Though it strains credulity in the West, Russia can still claim a measure of deniability and that gives them the political space to push for a negotiated settlement. Outright occupation would raise a lot of questions about the end-state and place a great burden upon Russia's credibility as a great power (and yes, I would argue Russia is a great power, ranked #3 after the U.S. and China).

This isn't a battle about values. It's a battle about the future of a country that has for 20 years attempted to maintain a delicate balance between two competing power centers. Its economic crisis triggered a political one, sparking a security one. And no - the U.S. is not a hegemon, otherwise it would have imposed its interests in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. The U.S. is by far the world's most significant power, but it does not have the capabilities to impose its will on every single country or combination of countries. Those capabilities peaked in the 1990s and the Iraq War marked the start of relative decline.

That'd be an interesting case study about blowback of information operations in the contemporary environment.

AP---not to go leftist on you but you really do not think that the economic power wheeled by the US government is not hegemon in nature.

Let's see what would foreign banks that have been hit by US fines for hundreds of millions of dollars for embargo violations say to your statements especially since they do not do business in the US--but in the end pay if they want to not be cut out of the USD clearing house process in NYC or to float loans in NYC.

Ask all the major participants of WW1 who financed the war to include Russia?

OUTLAW 09

07-27-2014, 07:03 PM

BrentWilliams

07-27-2014, 07:09 PM

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

If the only variable in the equation for Putin is the military variable, this is an easy win. It is very doubtful that the population in Eastern Ukraine would resist Russia directly taking control of the area. All things being equal, I doubt they would vote for it and would rather stay part of Ukraine, but if Russia moved decisively into eastern Ukraine, I doubt you are going to have much resistance from the local population.

Given that, what is constraining Russia from acting? It isn't an armed threat from the west. Again, I don't see the west directly becoming involved in the conflict. At the most, they could start to provide weapons and training. However, until Russia crosses a boarder with a NATO country, I couldn't imagine anything else.

I would suggest the one factor constraining Russia is that it is virtually dependent on the economy of Europe while Russia could only inflict some economic pain on Europe. Yes Russian energy is important. But it is also important for Russia to sell that energy and Europe is rich enough to allow the market to adjust to get energy from other places. Russia's biggest export partner by far is the European Union. If Europe gains the will to enact real sanctions, the Russian economy is destroyed. Europe will feel some pain but it won't last as the markets adjust.

We like to have these preconceived notions. We aren't doing anything, etc. I would suggest, in this situation, the United States perfectly doing what it should. Allow Putin to hang himself with his BS. Russia has every reason to fear real political will coming from Europe.

Firn

07-27-2014, 09:04 PM

davidbfpo

07-27-2014, 09:14 PM

I have been asked by regular poster to reorganise the threads on the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. This should keep it more accessible and organized.

My plan:

move all the Ukr threads into Europe arena
start all the new threads, 1st August next weekend?
Ukr international diplomacy
Ukr military
Ukr pol-econ
leave alone the Info Ops thread, but move to the Europe arena
close the existing threads

How does that sound? It would be good to get feedback from other users.

Dayuhan

07-28-2014, 12:33 AM

Dayuhan--thanks for finally agreeing even if you take 2000 words to agree and a couple of roundabout thought processes. You need to shorten the thoughts.

That's actually amusing, coming from someone who habitually writes 4-5 sequential posts on the same topic. I'd suggest composing your thoughts and writing a single post or reply, not a long string of them, as a courtesy to both the participants and the casual readers.

Really go back and dig out the chart I posted here in this thread about the extent and depth of their info war and then tell me it is not and or was not grabbing.

I recognize the extent and depth. What I'm trying to get you to recognize is that despite the extent and depth, the quality of the content remains crude and amateurish. Content matters: extent and depth do nothing for you if the message is poorly crafted or utterly incredible. Extent and depth do not in themselves determine whether or not a campaign "grabs": saturating the audience with a message that only a true-blue fanatic can believe is actually counterproductive, as it diminishes credibility.

So Dayuhan---just what does this statement say from the highest thinker in the US military? It tends to support the concept of the new Russian military doctrine does it not with it's use in supporting political warfare.

Yes, we all see this. We also see that it's not working very well for him. Given that this "new doctrine" only seems applicable to bordering states with substantial Russian-speaking populations and given that it doesn't look to be producing results, is it something we need to be rending our garments over?

Currently I think Putin is all in and he is doing everything possibly short to armed invasion to support the Russian mercenaries because to not do so violates his own propaganda and that would be then viewed as a defeat.

Yes, I agree. The problem with that - and again this is a situation familiar to Americans - is that you can reach a point where the proxies simply can't win, no matter how much support they get. At that point you either write of the proxies and face accusations of betrayal, or intervene directly and face the consequences. In Putin's case the consequences could be most unpleasant, as the oligarchs and the business community (licit and illicit) seem adamantly opposed to direct intervention and they are a key part of Putin's support base. Not a happy place for Putin.

JMA

07-28-2014, 07:29 AM

JMA

07-28-2014, 07:33 AM

That's actually amusing, coming from someone who habitually writes 4-5 sequential posts on the same topic. I'd suggest composing your thoughts and writing a single post or reply, not a long string of them, as a courtesy to both the participants and the casual readers.

Steady Steve...

Outlaw has been very patient with you... IMHO.

Why not follow his sage advice and contribute to this discussion rather than continually attempt to trip him and others up. That would be a little courtesy you could show everyone around here.

JMA

07-28-2014, 07:47 AM

I would suggest that you merge the two Ukraine related threads, move them to Europe arena and allow general - blow by blow - discussion to continue as is.

Then let those who seek to start and contibute to a more specialised, measured and sedatory thread on a sub topic do so.

I have been asked by regular poster to reorganise the threads on the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. This should keep it more accessible and organized.

My plan:

move all the Ukr threads into Europe arena
start all the new threads, 1st August next weekend?
Ukr international diplomacy
Ukr military
Ukr pol-econ
leave alone the Info Ops thread, but move to the Europe arena
close the existing threads

How does that sound? It would be good to get feedback from other users.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 08:13 AM

David---moves make sense to me.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 08:29 AM

According to Interpretermag live-blog (http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-160-the-battle-for-the-donbass-intensifies/#3561) and rather responsive map guys at wikipedia there has been a big Ukrainian offensive. A northern thrust, bypassing Horlivka furhter east, and southern thrust have almost cut off the Donetsk area from Luhansk one. It is of course important to remain sceptical, and wait for confirmations. If the offensive succedes and the gains get consolidated this would be a heavy blow for the Russian ambitions, especially around Donetsk.

The (Pro)Russian spokesmen are denying the extent of the recent gains, we will see. Lots of confusion, as so often and a considerable fog of war.

firn---appears to confirm your comments---the UA is now fighting night and day ops and are on a roll even with losses being absorbed they seem to sense the fighting is shifting.

Their attitude is summed up in the last two sentences from the reporting journalist.

Noticed it is their airborne, SF, and ex alpha units that are carrying the fight forward.

There was an article yesterday out of the Ukraine that a lot of the privately funded and supported independent fighting units are gaining a lot of new members as the Ukrainian government is indicating that after it is all over they must rebuild the police, security, and military and those that have fought will have priority chances in joining the new organizations.

From today kyivpost.com

The anti-terrorist Forces move towards the border with Russia. Shakhtersk, Torez, Snizhne. Journalist Petro Shuklinov wrote about it on his Facebook page.

«This is only one direction. All details of the forced march tonight after the operation has finished. Dozens of bodies of militants on the side of the roads. «We are going to our guys», — SMS. By the end of the day the territory of the militants will be cleared. If we will manage to hold to it — excellent. However, with such course of military operations there will be many losses.

We are moving to a phase where our Forces directly engage with terrorists. In addition to that they will need to fight on both side inside the corridor, but we have enough forces to widen the corridor every day. It will be very difficult, but there is no time to wait. We need victory. We need to save our guys on the border. We need to finish this war.»

kaur

07-28-2014, 08:48 AM

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.

Borodai “The biggest problem I have now is that I’m running out of dough,” he says. “Out of the 150 I took with me, they’re basically all gone, because I gave 50 to Zakhar, a million hryvnia [$85,000] to Igor [Strelkov], plus all the other expenses.” It is not clear what currency the rest of the money discussed is in.
“The money’s in place, but we’ll actually have it in two weeks,” the man continues. “We’ll have it if this situation holds out for two weeks. You see, if nothing changes militarily, this situation isn’t going to hold out those two weeks.”
“If it doesn’t hold out, it doesn’t hold out,” the other man says. “Sasha, don’t burden me with this crap. We agreed about the 180 — take it. The rest we’re going to have to try and work out. If there’s not going to be a flow, then we’ll organize more through the same channel.”
The man alleged to be Chesnakov then conveys what he says is a request from Archmandrite Tikhon, a senior priest in the Russian Orthodox Church widely rumored to be Putin’s confessor, to help rein in Strelkov, who is lionized in pro-Kremlin quarters but widely seen as a loose cannon after he abandoned his stronghold of Slovyansk for Donetsk, the provincial capital, earlier this month.
The man says that Strelkov should give an interview to make clear that his “commander-in-chief” is Putin to dispel notions of a split between the rebels on the ground and their ostensible patrons in Moscow. “‘At the present time I’m understandably not carrying out his direct orders, because I’m in a different country, but I have the utmost respect for him and believe him to be the most brilliant leader of modern times, thanks to whom Russia rose from its knees, and we all look at him with hope,’” the man says, putting words in Strelkov’s mouth.
“‘But not in the sense of “come on already, how long can this go on,” but in the sense that we love him, believe in him, he is our ideal and whatever decisions he takes, we’ll carry out any decisions he takes. Because we think that he is the wise and experienced leader of the Russian world.’”

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/ukraine-says-new-tapes-prove-russia-finances-rebels-who-shot

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 09:21 AM

kaur---two things;

1. the intercepts seem to indicate that they think they may not hold out longer than two weeks-- might be shorter after the UA broke through to the border yesterday near the MH17 crash site.

2. here is a Russian border guard ----this time posting the fact that he is crossing through the Ukrainian border crossing point.

They just cannot stop their internet postings. They really do need a short class on operational security.

http://sprotyv.info/en/news/2379-russian-military-equipment-penetrates-ukraine

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 12:08 PM

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/ukraine-says-new-tapes-prove-russia-finances-rebels-who-shot

kaur--not so sure they should be pushing Strelkov as their face of the revolt if the charges that he participated in war crimes in Bosnia and that could led to the International Courts charges. Just as now he tended to leave photos of myself that have now resurfaced.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 12:17 PM

With a 50B USD suit lost by Putin over Yukos, the Ukrainians going to court over their lost Crimea oil and gas assets/properties another estimated 180B USD, another 3B USD in gas stored inside the Ukraine,the Ukrainians taking Gasprom to international court over alleged overcharging and charging for gas not delivered at approximately 6B USD, with the Ukrainians going to court over Ukrainian government assets in the Crimea taken over by Russia totaling over 145B USD. That does not include the additional Billions in military facilities taken over by Russia to include the Black Sea fleet home port.

Even if Putin succeeded in the eastern Ukraine--Russia will be paying dearly literally forever.

What many do not know is that if the Hague International Court rules against a government and they then lose on appeal the fines levied can be collected through any means---seizures of oil/gas shipments, impounding of merchant shipping and their cargoes--civilian aircraft belonging to Aeroflot---anything that can be seized is fair game.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 01:47 PM

Russia is having a hard day today---first they complain that the US is smearing the Russians in the media about them firing rockets and artillery into the Ukraine, then they flatly state that what was in the social media from Russian soldiers was fakes and lies, and then yesterday they demanded the US provide evidence about the rocket and artillery strikes.

Then yesterday after all of the Russian complaints the US releases overhead imagery which one can easily identify as coming from satellites of before and after shots of the strikes against a Ukrainian outpost along the border together with the burn marks left by the BM 21 firings and the craters amongst the outpost.

Now I know there is this thing called fog of war, but I hardly believe the Ukrainians shelled their own troops.

So now it begs the question if it was not the Russian Army who fired BM21s and artillery just how did the FSB and the Russian Federated Border Security Service know nothing about it---a glaring lack of security it seems on the part of Russia when someone can roll in a complete BM21 BN, fire and then depart---the same for the artillery fire--roll in set up fire and be gone.

Not sure Russia wants to admit that someone is carrying out a false flag attack from their sovereign territory against the Ukraine---maybe it was the CIA?

Now this today from Interfax:

07/28 16:06 U.S. images cannot serve as proof of Russia's responsibility for Ukraine shelling - ministry (Part 2)

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 02:14 PM

The site http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/ was the first mixed blogger/journalist effort in identifying the Buk and using OSINT to confirm the Buk, where it had been and it's removal back to Russia.

Today they have released an analysis done on a French journalist for Match that tracked down the trucking company in Donetsk that was used to move the Buk back to Russia---owner admits it was his truck -- "Claims the truck had been stolen"---wonder if the Russians returned it?

There is a new photo of the truck and the covered Buk that has not been seen before.

Then there is a good analysis done on the single photo showing the missile trail as it was fired---Russian bloggers/media have been disparately trying to disprove that single photo.

Lastly there is great analysis work on the rocket and artillery fire coming out of Russia and into the Ukraine.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 06:25 PM

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/ukraine-says-new-tapes-prove-russia-finances-rebels-who-shot

kaur--rumors are these two--- Girkin and Bezler--- have fled the Donetsk--intercepts are indicating their own mercenaries are trying to find them.

Maybe they realized the Ukrainian Army was about to encircle the Donetsk which was completed yesterday effectively cutting Donetsk off from resupply, money, and fighters.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/27/separatist-leaders-girkin-bezler-have-fled-donetsk/

Shchors

07-28-2014, 09:01 PM

In follow-up to earlier posts regarding the situation in East Ukraine, yesterday the Ukrainian army isolated and partially captured a key railroad and road intersection at Debaltsevo. Debaltesvo is 40 clicks east of Donetsk and connects the main highway between Donetsk and Luhansk. It is also the main line of communications for the separatists between Donetsk and the Russian border.The Ukrainians were expected to turn west in order to surround a key advance redoubt at Horlivka (population 300,000). Instead, in a true example of the operational art, they left a small blocking force and sent a mechanized brigade some 20 kilometers south over open country to attack between the towns of Shakhtarsk and Torez, which sit astride the only other remaining east-west highway along the separatist line of communications with Russia. This took the Russians by surprize since all separatist defenses along this line were pointed south towards other Ukrainian forces that are pinned against the Russian border. Yesterday afternoon, the separatist field commander, RGU Lt.Col. Igor Girkin a/k/a Strelkov, reacted decisively. He pulled together a regimental sized counterattacking force (including his "Kalmius" spetzsnaz battalion) from further east at Krasnyi Luch and hurled it towards the Ukrainian penetration. According to Russian sit reps as of last night, the Ukrainians were stopped on the main highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. Both sides reported losses in tanks and personnel carriers. Apparently, most of the damage was caused by massed rocket artillery from the separatists side and tactical air from the Ukrainian side (the cross-country jaunt obviated the ability of the Ukrainians to bring along much self-propelled arty). From Russian accounts, the Ukrainians were not content to fight it out along the highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. They sent part of their column cross-country to the southeast in a bold attempt to seize Saur-Mohyla Mountain. Saur-Mohyla was the site of bloody fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht in 1942. A Mount Rushmore sized monument sits atop of the hill. The hill has been in separatist hands for the last month, from where the Russians direct accurate artillery fire against Ukrainian forces that are pinned along the Russian border. As of this afternoon, both sides claim that they control the mountain. Moreover, the Ukrainians are dug in along the outskirts of Shakhtarsk and at a key "T" intersection that leads from the highway south to Saur-Mohyla. If the Ukrainians can withstand counterattacks from both east and west (from Donetsk) in order to (1) interdict communications to Donetsk and if they can (2) capture and hold Saur-Mohyla Mountain, the separatists are cut off and in serious trouble. Given that more than half of the separatists are Russian mercenaries, soldiers of fortune (Serbs, Chechens, Latvians) or young Russian adrenalin junkies looking for their first taste of war, the separatist forces in Donetsk can collapse soon. However, as always in war, not so fast. There are reports of a mechanized force massing at Krasnyi Luch in the east. Video indicates that they all have state-of-the-art Russian vehicles, heavy weapons and a uniform appearance (with all insignia removed). These can only have appeared from inside of Russia. The bold Ukrainian maneuver of two days ago can collapse in the face of a powerful counterattack over the course of the next 2-3 days. Furthermore, while someone in the Ukrainian operational staff understands the importance of avoiding positional war, maintaining tempo and keeping the initiative (perhaps the Chief of the General Staff, Lt.Gen Victor Muzychko), one can only achieve this if you have fresh reserves. The Ukrainian army consists of only 2 tank brigades, 8 mechanized brigades and four airmobile/parachute brigades. At least three have to block other potential invasion routes from Russia and the rest have been fighting non-stop for two months. The Ukrainians may be at the end of their operational rope. Moreover, while greatly improved over the last two months, their combat groups are not experienced enough for the Wehrmacht like flexible operations that the general staff keeps ordering them to execute. Stay tuned. Fascinating and horrible at the same time.

OUTLAW 09

07-28-2014, 10:11 PM

Shchors

07-28-2014, 10:46 PM

Thanks for the detail Outlaw09!

BrentWilliams

07-29-2014, 04:19 AM

Europe seems to be quickly gaining political will to be effective against Russia. Russia looks to be actually thinking of armed intervention. Rather interesting few weeks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/world/europe/us-and-europe-agree-to-escalate-sanctions-on-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

U.S. and Europe Set to Toughen Russia Sanctions

The United States and Europe put aside their differences and agreed Monday to sharply escalate economic sanctions against Russia amid worries that Moscow is stepping up its intervention in Ukraine and may be setting the stage for an outright invasion.

After months in which European leaders resisted going as far as the Americans, the two sides settled on a package of measures that would target Russia’s financial, energy and military sectors. In some cases, the Europeans may actually leapfrog beyond what the United States has done, forcing Washington to catch up.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 06:29 AM

Thanks for the detail Outlaw09!

Shchors---Putin is all in now as he cannot lose--the irregulars and the arms he has sent are no longing helping his proxy get a federated solution. so a defeat of the proxy is in the eyes of Putin a visual defeat of himself in the global media. there is some concern in the ruling elite that the recent polling showing him to be strong is mushy in three critical areas and those numbers are starting to drift downwards within the Russian population. Paritculary interesting is that a majority of Russians want no war with the Ukraine.

He continues to beef up his border forces and this is the key he seems to be pulling units from the Far East who have no understanding of the Ukraine thus will be more than willing to attack and kill "fascists" his main information war drumbeat for the first three months.

Concerning continued troop buildup:

3. Russia continues to build up the number of its troops near the state border with Ukraine.

In addition to the units previously concentrated at the border, [new] units from other regions of Russia are currently being deployed. Earlier, the movement of the divisions of the 32nd Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 24th Separate Brigade of the GRU of the General Staff were recorded from Novosibirsk Oblast [region].

This weekend, we documented the redeployment of units from the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade [MRB] to the state border with Ukraine. It looked strange, given that the Brigade’s permanent place of deployment is in the Murmansk Oblast [region] of Russia [in the northwest]. Today, however, these data have been confirmed.

The 200th MRB has tanks, BM-21 “Grad” and BM-27 “Hurricane” MLRS, 2SZ “Acacia” self-propelled artillery at its disposal. That is everything that Putin’s troops have unleashed on Ukraine in recent weeks.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 06:41 AM

Now US finally calls a spade by the name spade---I had mentioned a number of times in the really early part of this thread that the US had to final ly call out Russia on it's open and blatant violation of the cruise missile development as part of their signing of the INF. That was the first true indication of where Putin was headed and we ignored it in order to do the reset thing.

Next they have to finally call Russia out in it's failure to have destroyed over 2000 tanks and APCs which they signed up to do under the OSCE as did and was carried out by the US and NATO---a lot of those OSCE scheduled T64/72s are now in the Ukraine.

So much for the "Russian reset"---the EU is talking actually about Putin having abused that reset.

Estimates of the coming sanctions are running in the 100B range over the next two years---a fifth of the Russian foreign currency reserves.

What is going to hurt is that by being cut off from the EU and US capital markets and currency exchange markets--Russia just cannot take the billions from their USD/Euro foreign currency reserves to prop up their economy---in order to do that they must cross over the sanctions which now they cannot do thus the Russian central bank is in one heck of a bind now. Maybe that is the reason for a lot of talk about a special tax on the rich?

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-violated-arms-treaty-testing-cruise-missile-us-002749693.html

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 12:14 PM

Russia must becoming desperate to send over a full COL in uniform to delivery weapons to an insurgent group---he had to have been from the GRU.

51st Bde refers to their airborne BDE which has been in the lead attacks lately and has been holding down also a critical border area while getting shelled daily by both the mercenaries and the Russians.

Yesterday in the ATO zone a sniper eliminated a Colonel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, whist he tried to deliver weapons from Russia to terrorists again, writes Zaporozhye city council deputy Denis Pyatigorets on his Facebook page.

«Today, brazen from impunity Colonel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in uniform, chevron straps and (as it turned out) with an identity card was carrying arms to separatists from Russia to the territory of Ukraine. However, the arms did not reach the destination. A kind-hearted and indescribably modest sniper from the reconnaissance group of the 51 brigade enhanced unpretentious decoration of a moscovit UAZ vehicle with brains of the brazen Colonel.» — writes Pyatigorets.

Accompanying the Russian Army Colonel group of people was detained by the ATO Forces.

http://en.inforesist.org/a-staff-officer-of-the-russian-armed-forces-who-delivered-weapons-to-terrorists-was-eliminated-un-the-ato-area/

Dayuhan

07-29-2014, 12:19 PM

Interesting dichotomy between this:

Putin is all in now as he cannot lose--the irregulars and the arms he has sent are no longing helping his proxy get a federated solution. so a defeat of the proxy is in the eyes of Putin a visual defeat of himself in the global media. there is some concern in the ruling elite that the recent polling showing him to be strong is mushy in three critical areas and those numbers are starting to drift downwards within the Russian population. Paritculary interesting is that a majority of Russians want no war with the Ukraine.

and this:

Estimates of the coming sanctions are running in the 100B range over the next two years---a fifth of the Russian foreign currency reserves.

What is going to hurt is that by being cut off from the EU and US capital markets and currency exchange markets--Russia just cannot take the billions from their USD/Euro foreign currency reserves to prop up their economy---in order to do that they must cross over the sanctions which now they cannot do thus the Russian central bank is in one heck of a bind now. Maybe that is the reason for a lot of talk about a special tax on the rich?

Putin can't afford to lose in the Eastern Ukraine... but can he afford to sink his own economy and provoke the wrath of the oligarchs and the business community, both licit and illicit?

Russia is in some ways uniquely vulnerable to sanctions. Sanctions generally fail because they are based on the premise that if you hurt the people, the people will pressure the government into changing course. That doesn't help if the people have no influence over the government. In Russia's case, sanctions have the capacity to hurt not "the people", but that small subset of the "the people" that is internationally connected, engaged in large scale business, and wealthy. Putin may not have to listen to "the people"... but can he afford to antagonize the oligarchs by provoking further sanctions?

Putin is living dangerously no matter what he does, and it will be interesting to see what his next move will be.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 12:46 PM

Interesting dichotomy between this:

and this:

Putin can't afford to lose in the Eastern Ukraine... but can he afford to sink his own economy and provoke the wrath of the oligarchs and the business community, both licit and illicit?

Russia is in some ways uniquely vulnerable to sanctions. Sanctions generally fail because they are based on the premise that if you hurt the people, the people will pressure the government into changing course. That doesn't help if the people have no influence over the government. In Russia's case, sanctions have the capacity to hurt not "the people", but that small subset of the "the people" that is internationally connected, engaged in large scale business, and wealthy. Putin may not have to listen to "the people"... but can he afford to antagonize the oligarchs by provoking further sanctions?

Putin is living dangerously no matter what he does, and it will be interesting to see what his next move will be.

Dayuhan--a good comment---the problem for the west is will the sanctions be enough of a short term threat vs definitely a long term threat weapon---no actually they could in fact destroy the Russian economy for years to come.

There was a US Army saying---money is in fact a weapons system.

If the EU sanctions coming today indicate a credit cut off from EU banks then Russia is in serious trouble---there are German indications as well that the EU Central Bank will be raising the risk levels for Russian loans and credits and today the Russian central bank also pulled back a new bond offer and indications are they will be raising again the interest rates. EU meeting started 10:30 European time.

IMO Putin does not see all of this as he is focused on his image of Russia as a superpower equal to all superpowers thus "entitled" to it's role and what he says should be the goals of that Russian superpower.

Right now the information war is setting the stage for the Russian population that the coming economic hardships are the single source of their problems and it is all the West's fault and that is being reflected as well in the polling.

An ancient Stalinist tactic--- in when trouble blame the West.

If the reported sniper killing of a Russian COL inside the Ukraine is in fact truth---waiting for his ID to show up in the blogs which it will via the SBU--- then that is an indication that Putin definitely is not listening and in fact he is all in.

IMO Putin is startled that the West has hung in so long after the Crimea---his experiences with the Western reactions stems from the Georgian and Moldavian events where the West went back to normal relatively quickly---this time that is not happening much to the surprise of Moscow which one occasionally sees in random comments the last couple of weeks.

There was a short comment sent out via Interfax yesterday contributed to the Russian FM---OK West tell us what you want as we do not understand your demands---found it strange as it did not fit the information war flow from Interfax---it was almost like a plea for some assistance ie a bridge for a way out of the mess they are in.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 01:02 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 01:24 PM

kaur--rumors are these two--- Girkin and Bezler--- have fled the Donetsk--intercepts are indicating their own mercenaries are trying to find them.

Maybe they realized the Ukrainian Army was about to encircle the Donetsk which was completed yesterday effectively cutting Donetsk off from resupply, money, and fighters.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/27/separatist-leaders-girkin-bezler-have-fled-donetsk/

kaur---Girkin is still in the Donetsk, but is being reported that Belzer is no longer there.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 02:13 PM

It appears that the Russian FSB/GRU is attempting to motive Baltic ethnic Russians to support their oppressed brothers in the Donetsk making it now like a pan Russian crusade against the fascists in Kiev.

from RIA today:

RIGA, July 29 (RIA Novosti) – A group of volunteers from Latvia is heading to the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine to join independence supporters, the leader of Latvia’s For Native Language party told RIA Novosti on Tuesday.

“A group of volunteers has departed for the Donetsk People’s Republic. It’s small,” Vladimir Linderman said refusing to give further details.

According to Ves.lv portal, Latvia’s security police earlier said it had information that Latvian citizens could be involved in the current conflict in Ukraine, where the government is fighting against independence supporters.

Police did not specify in which actions on the territory of Ukraine those citizens were participating.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 02:28 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 03:17 PM

It seems the Russian GRU urgently needs to convince young Russian artillerists to stop using the Russian Facebook to boost their egos.

These entries indicated that the Russian Army delivered into the Ukraine Grads BM21s with their Russian Army crews around 13 July.

Waiting for a good blogger site to do their analysis work on the geo tags of the photos for validation of the location of the BM21 unit inside the Ukraine as well as the IL76 photo.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/29/ukraine-expect-us-more-russian-soldiers-brag-of-invasion/

They also need to rein in the Russian UN Ambassador---- as is with all social media tweets---cannot find the actual quote by day and time---but if true then the GRU needs to really talk to him.

https://twitter.com/MaidanOnline/status/494101405863776256/photo/1

Maeda Toshiie

07-29-2014, 04:19 PM

The Army often states officers must lead from the front or motivate from the front---or the motto for years at the Infantry Officers School---follow me---but this is interesting. Ukrainian Chief of Staff in his own tank leading a frontal tank assault.

I seriously doubt we could get the American JCoS General Dempsey or the Army Chief of Staff into a tank and lead a tank charge facing RGP and Russian anti tank missile fire.

The T64 is a surprisingly stable tank platform--article says that with the retroactive armor some tanks took ten hits are more and kept attacking.

http://en.inforesist.org/the-chief-of-staff-personally-led-an-assault-force-of-our-troops-in-one-of-the-most-dangerous-areas/

It is one thing for company grade officers to lead from the front as an example for the men. It is another for flag officers to run around in a tank within range of RPGs. Moreso in the case of Soviet school of thought, the key role of formation commanders (and their staff) is to plan and execute (deep) operations, not play flypaper for RPGs.

We are long past the days of Ney and Blucher...

------------------------------

The T64 may actually have (working) composite armour and reactive armour, but it is less well protected compared to the latest Abrams/ Chally/ LeoII/ Merkava.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 04:43 PM

It is one thing for company grade officers to lead from the front as an example for the men. It is another for flag officers to run around in a tank within range of RPGs. Moreso in the case of Soviet school of thought, the key role of formation commanders (and their staff) is to plan and execute (deep) operations, not play flypaper for RPGs.

We are long past the days of Ney and Blucher...

------------------------------

The T64 may actually have (working) composite armour and reactive armour, but it is less well protected compared to the latest Abrams/ Chally/ LeoII/ Merkava.

Fully agree---but am still amazed that it can take 10 hits from various types of RPGs and Russian anti tank versions---that was something we never assumed possible from their reactive armor when it first came out.

Agree that a CoS should not be running around the battlefield like a company commander, but right now there is a wave of patriotism breaking out in the Ukraine ---at least six different videos are running right now in their TV channels.

Right now many of their frontline combat units have been in the grind for well over three months of constant combat against Russian Spetznaz teams and a lot of combat experienced mercenaries without any RIP/TOA---the question is can they keep the pace up.

This might have looked like a stunt but to the tankers in the fight they knew his call sign and it signaled to them his respect for their efforts.

These frontline units are all the Ukrainians have until they can train replacements.

What is interesting in this wave of respect for the UA/NG and for that matter even the oligarch independently funded groups--is the growing realization that they are fighting for the first time for their own independence historically speaking. You see it all the time now being talked about in their newspapers, social media, and TV/radio stations.

Russia has forced the Ukraine to become a country not a mixture of different of ethnic groups---even the "rescued" proRussians in the recaptured towns and villages have seriously rethought their viewpoints after a four month mercenary reign.

We in the West talk about crowd funding for startups---they have right now one of the largest ongoing crowd funding projects that I have seen to support their military with private people and shop owners providing food and medical supplies and buying military equipment.

Someone recently purchased over 100 former US helmets here in Berlin and then had to carry each one across the Polish border due to German laws about military equipment and over 30 people volunteered to help carry one helmet at a time across the border just to be legal with the equipment---who would do that in the US?

It is literally an DIY military that was once ragtag that has transformed itself into a force that pulled off an armored Calvary end run that divided and enclosed the Donetsk this week that would have made the US 2nd or 3rd ACR salute.

And that from an army that is not highly mobile.

OUTLAW 09

07-29-2014, 05:12 PM

One has to wonder just how much Russian Duma politicians really understand economic globalization.

In the article below from RIA today they want to pass a law that would basically forbid the US and other international auditing/consulting houses from working in Russia as a response to the sanctions.

What these politicians do not seem to understand is that most international lines of credit and international bank loans require a auditing aspect that these companies provide back to the creditor. Doubt seriously if the international finance markets would accept Russian "homegrown" audit agencies simply based on the level of Russian corruption within Russian companies.

MOSCOW, July 29 (RIA Novosti) – The introduction of the “aggressor state” notion to Russian legislation will uproot all foreign-based audit companies in the country, a result that will not only be welcome but also overdue as it will nurture national auditing, a senior Russian lawmaker said Tuesday.

“Our economy will certainly lose nothing to it … Larger [national] companies are already steady on their feet. My feeling has long been that we need more national auditing, even if we leave sanctions out of consideration. Sanctions may only serve as an impetus,” said Mikhail Emelyanov, deputy chief of an economic policy, innovation and entrepreneurship committee with the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament.

“The idea is good, although it might require judicial, technical or similar amendments, but the concept is the right one,” Emelyanov added in a comment to RIA Novosti.

Russia’s Izvestia newspaper cited sources in the Duma as saying Tuesday the country’s lawmakers were mulling a bill that would add the notion of “aggressor country” to the law of the land.

According to the sources, an aggressor country will be defined as “a state introducing sanctions against the Russian Federation, Russian citizens and Russian legal entities.”

It is expected to hit foreign legal entities and individuals registered in such states, banning them from providing audit and consultancy services in Russia.

All six major US audit and consulting companies working in Russia – Deloitte, KPMG, Ernst & Young, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey – could be outlawed, according to Evgeny Fedorov, one of the initiators.

BrentWilliams

07-29-2014, 05:23 PM

I saw this and this rings true to me, at least. I never thought the actual population living in Eastern Ukraine (or Crimea for that matter), really support an armored movement to become part of Russia.

http://www.interpretermag.com/why-people-in-eastern-ukraine-havent-flocked-to-secessionist-banners/

Why People in Eastern Ukraine Haven’t Flocked to Secessionist Banners
s the Ukrainian military closes in on Moscow-backed forces in southeastern Ukraine, Russian commentators are scrambling to explain why the Russian-speaking population in that region have not flocked to the banners of the secessionists in Donetsk and Lugansk.

Not surprisingly, these commentators have not focused on the fact that the population there now overwhelmingly identifies as Ukrainians and has no interest in becoming part of the Russian Federation. What they are saying explains a lot about how Moscow is trying to explain away its own miscalculation about the support it would receive.

Which makes the recent movement of Russian forces more interesting, I think. The possibility of Russian directly using forces to roll back Ukraine forces seems to be raising. For example, http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/3560 . If you invade and the population doesn't support you, how do you establish long term stability with a Keiv government still in the West. Moreover, its likely to be a Keiv government that is getting actual military assistance from the west. This is on top of further economic sanctions.

In sum, if Russia decides to directly become involved and take the harm of economic sanctions, wouldn't it make a lot of sense to act decisively and seize Kiev? If you are going to isolate yourself fully, why not?

Firn

07-29-2014, 05:48 PM

At the first glance the newest round of sanctions (http://euobserver.com/tickers/125142) seem to have a different quality compared to pretty soft ones. I will take a closer look at it and likely post it on the thread about the Russian economy.

EU ambassadors approve economic sanctions on Russia

Today @ 17:32

By EUOBSERVER

EU ambassadors have approved a raft of economic sanctions against Russia, banning EU citizens and companies from trading Russian bonds, as well as selling weapons to or importing them from Russia, exporting technology for oil exploration and items with military and civilian use. The sanctions will enter into force Friday.

Possibly the Duma will be indeed so stupid to 'uproot' all foreign-based audit companies in the country or other patriotic-idiotic stuff and it will continue to cut deeper into it's economy's flesh. More in the economy thread, but a weaker Russian economy will have an impact on the war.

Firn

07-29-2014, 06:00 PM

@BrentWilliams: It is also noteworthy that this also mirrored by the already mentioned crowd-funding (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28459772) of this conflict and the events at Maidan. One side seems to have so far a an easier time to gather the support of the civil society and common citiziens. Especially those of the young.

Firn

07-29-2014, 06:18 PM

JMA

07-29-2014, 08:18 PM

There is still the potential need for such displays of the 'follow me' type combat leadership especially in circumstances when and advance or an attack is stalling.

Good for this man. Good to see a general officer showing the troops how it should be done.

Don't worry about the past or the present... think only of the battle situation on the ground and that the general was forward enough to read the battle and take action to defeat the enemy.

It is one thing for company grade officers to lead from the front as an example for the men. It is another for flag officers to run around in a tank within range of RPGs. Moreso in the case of Soviet school of thought, the key role of formation commanders (and their staff) is to plan and execute (deep) operations, not play flypaper for RPGs.

We are long past the days of Ney and Blucher...

------------------------------

The T64 may actually have (working) composite armour and reactive armour, but it is less well protected compared to the latest Abrams/ Chally/ LeoII/ Merkava.

mirhond

07-29-2014, 08:37 PM

Geriatric home In Lugansk after shelling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XcymfIBcU#t=437

... Ukrainian armor falling into the hands of the Russian separatists on the territory of Ukraine (there is the suspicion that certain military personnel at arms depots allowed these losses without a fight) I agree that these pieces of equipment fall well short of 100.
But what does that have to do with Russian armor sneaking across the border into the Donbas? Video evidence of such incursions are multiple and overwhelming.
I fail to see your point. And why should I read anything in Wikepedia? By the way, thanks for attaching this document. If authentic, it is a valuable source for future citation.

1. Statement
Ukrainian armor falling into the hands of the Russian separatists has nothing to do with statement
Russian armor sneaking across the border into the Donbas and I fail to see why do you even ask? First statement disproves your claim

. The separatists have also acquired close to 100 T-64 and T-72 tanks themselves, with generous numbers of artillery and rockets, all smuggled over the border from Russia.
and second one adds nothing to the first one.
2. My point is to disprove tons and tons of media nonsence and BS which is poured here by several biased and short-minded users.
3. Well, if you dislike Wikipedia, read something else, then. Anyway, it would be very polite of you if you make a little bit of research before posting anything.

ps. Another leaked cable, specially for kaur :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNoVfyAywlQ

Dayuhan

07-30-2014, 12:02 AM

Dayuhan--a good comment---the problem for the west is will the sanctions be enough of a short term threat vs definitely a long term threat weapon---no actually they could in fact destroy the Russian economy for years to come.

The sanctions themselves are a long term threat, but the elite's fear of sanctions is immediate. The motivator in this case is not so much what the existing sanctions have already done as what the economic elite thinks they will lose if further sanctions are applied. Those losses would take time to be realized, but the economic elite are not going to wait for that to happen to make their position known. They don't want to respond to losses, they want to prevent losses, and they will apply whatever pressure they can muster to achieve that goal. How much pressure they can muster is another question, but I'd guess there's a whole lot of talk going on behind the scenes right now.

Comes back to that same question: Putin can't afford to "lose" in the Eastern Ukraine, but can he afford to directly antagonize the business oligarchs?

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 07:33 AM

comrade no nothing but claim you do Russian information warrior mirhond--

finally you say something that makes sense---if you cannot say the truth which you never seem to be able to do---as they say in the military---get off the net.

there have been reports after reports of mercenary driven tanks with UA markings driving up to the apartment buildings and firing directly into them and then "suddenly" appears a Russian TV crew---let's not even get into the reports coming from your own proRussian citizens of them watching GRADS being fired by mercenaries into the center of Donetsk.

strange mirhind strange is it not comrade?

1. Statement has nothing to do with statement and I fail to see why do you even ask? First statement disproves your claim

and second one adds nothing to the first one.

2. My point is to disprove tons and tons of media nonsence and BS which is poured here by several biased and short-minded users.

so finally comrade know nothing mirhond you admit you work for the Russian FSB and blog for them right comrade---but really there are four of you guys--what is your pay by the way comrade a free trip to the wonderful vacation resort of the Crimea?

3. Well, if you dislike Wikipedia, read something else, then. Anyway, it would be very polite of you if you make a little bit of research before posting anything.

well know nothing information warrior it would be equally great if you did not always take the side of your proxy mercenaries-- BUT wait a minute was it not yourself that defended those "zealous Christian" Cossacks for stealing credit cards, money, cosmetics, and Smart phones from the dead bodies of the airliner your guys shot out of the sky comrade?

AND was it not you who claimed here in SWJ that those "zealous Christians" because of their "famous burial rituals" picked up 36 bodies threw them in a truck and drove away---AND you comrade mirhond CLAIMED here in SWJ they were being taken to Donetsk---they never made it there comrade.

so were did the bodies disappear to comrade as there are still 71 missing.

comrade mirhond you have got to get new friends if all you have is "zealous Christians" to defend these days

get your facts straight comrade before you write here again--finally take your on adivce

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 07:40 AM

The sanctions themselves are a long term threat, but the elite's fear of sanctions is immediate. The motivator in this case is not so much what the existing sanctions have already done as what the economic elite thinks they will lose if further sanctions are applied. Those losses would take time to be realized, but the economic elite are not going to wait for that to happen to make their position known. They don't want to respond to losses, they want to prevent losses, and they will apply whatever pressure they can muster to achieve that goal. How much pressure they can muster is another question, but I'd guess there's a whole lot of talk going on behind the scenes right now.

Comes back to that same question: Putin can't afford to "lose" in the Eastern Ukraine, but can he afford to directly antagonize the business oligarchs?

Dayuhan---he can---Russian internal power is built on four legs, 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) oligarchs, and 4) the Russian mob and over all of this the Russian Orthodox Church---so it really it just a balancing game for Putin.

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 09:21 AM

Dayuhan---he can---Russian internal power is built on four legs, 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) oligarchs, and 4) the Russian mob and over all of this the Russian Orthodox Church---so it really it just a balancing game for Putin.

Dayuhan---a solid article concerning the internal debate now among the four pillars of Russia power that I just wrote about.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/world/europe/as-sanctions-pile-up-russians-alarm-grows-over-putin-tactics.html?

Dayuhan--this is the core piece of the article and it goes to the information war comments I have been making here--it was focused at the EU, the Ukrainians, but more importantly the Russian themselves.

Putin was able via info war messaging to increase his popularity, influence the mood of the Russian population to support him and his actions, and in fact was able to hold the EU up from further hard stage three sanctions-successfully by the way in holding the EU especially Germany in place-----that info war crashed the day the airliner crashed and they have not recovered to the previous successes of that info war. And the EU has gone to stage three sanctions with promises of more to come if he does not throttle back.

Actually they have lost their own information war and you can sense that in their various press releases which are all over the map especially on the reasons for the crash which was up to 15 different theories.

Putin's most serious mistake was that he had seen how the EU/US responded to Georgia and Moldavia and honesty had assumed the same in the Ukraine--meaning a lot of yelling, teeth grinding and a lot of words flying around and then it would be over and back to business as usual.

His second serious mistake was believing the myth of the power of gas and oil--meaning the EU would stop on anything to avoid less gas but in fact it appears now that Russia is so tied to the needed sales income from the two raw resources he cannot cut gas and oil off without truly destroying his economy for the next 20 years. He simply did not or wanted to not see the economic interdependence.

From the INT article:
More frequent and prominent critics are saying that Mr. Putin and the hard-line leaders in the Kremlin overreached by suggesting that Russia, far more dependent than the old Soviet Union on international trade and financial markets, could thrive without the West.

“They were not anticipating the West to make radical moves, costly moves,” said Nikolai Petrov, an independent political analyst. “What is happening is different from what they wanted and what they expected.”

He and others pointed to the downing of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 over embattled southeastern Ukraine on July 17 as upsetting the balancing act that Mr. Putin had managed to pull off to maintain support from the public, hard-line nationalists, the security services, the oligarchs and the more liberal business community.

“Until this catastrophe, Putin’s calculations were pretty good in terms of being able to win any tactical battle,” Mr. Petrov said.

The Kremlin had been counting on its ability to maintain just enough instability in Ukraine to keep the country dependent on Russian good will, while making Europe and the United States cautious about intervening too assertively there.

Dayuhan--this is where the information warfare fit into his strategy.

Right after this weekend, when the likelihood of more serious European sanctions materialized, Mr. Putin met with advisers to say that Russia needed to become self-reliant. He was referring to arms production previously done in Ukraine, but the sentiment echoed in other fields.

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 10:23 AM

A new definition for the mercenary looting/stealing at the crash site--kind of goes with the zealous Christian comment.

Not sure what the proper training is for looting/stealing?

3. It seems that since the Kremlin has set itself the task to demonize itself as a fully-fledged “evil empire,” it will no longer deviate from this path (of course, not without help). Covering for and shielding terrorists goes beyond all imaginable limits.

Thus, Russia’s permanent representative at the UN, Vitaly Churkin announced that the DNR fighters, who controlled the Boeing-777 crash site and [who] stole belongings from the deceased passengers, along with the local residents, cannot be called looters. “Why are the locals collecting something? Because it literally falls on their heads,” said Churkin. And the militants, according to him, loot because [they] “don’t have proper training” (presumably, this is the criticism of Russian FSB and GRU training centers where terrorists are being trained).

Obviously, Churkin himself, who doesn’t consider the appropriation of victims’ belongings a sin, used to rob graves during his youth. What is so wrong [about it], when they [the belongings] are “literally” lying under your feet?

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 10:33 AM

@Shchors and outlaw: At the very least both large motorways to Donezk, Makiivka and Horlivka, the M04 and the H21 seem to be at the center of rather intense fights. The H21 runs in this fought over area through the urban areas of Shaktarsk, Torez and Shinzne and turns then northeast to Krasnyi Luch. Between them there is a not too dense network of roads, little rivers and almost only flat terrain which should be dry. So supplies to the west should be possible.

Donezk and Makiivka form a large urban hub. The recent 'pincer' offensive obviously bypassed this densly settled area and hit in far more open terrain.

http://gdb.rferl.org/4F9E72E4-E8F4-4EC9-B3C8-0BCAB0645005_mw1024_s_n.jpg

As usual one should be quite careful with those maps, taking fog of war and party interests in mind.

Shchors/firn---

Here is a perfect example for the Ukrainian crowd-sourcing going on for those UA troops that have been holding the border areas and getting shelled by the mercenaries as well as the Russian 3-5 times daily.

Raised funding goes for food, supplies and other needs of the airborne, SF and other units in that pocket that have surprisingly been holding on well.

firn---probably a new updated battlefield position map as well is in the article.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/29/sector-d-the-handful-of-soldiers-securing-the-success-of-the-ato-surrounded-from-all-sides/

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 11:58 AM

Russian information war media has been interesting to say the least this last six months.

A Russian titled video started showing up in the last week or so depicting the alleged launch of a Buk shooting at the airliner

Interesting blogger analysis of the video defining it as a fake "troll" project--- everyone should simply ignore the fake video was his suggestion.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

Dayuhan

07-30-2014, 01:49 PM

Dayuhan---he can---Russian internal power is built on four legs, 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) oligarchs, and 4) the Russian mob and over all of this the Russian Orthodox Church---so it really it just a balancing game for Putin.

Domestic politics are always a balancing act, and the balance points can shift very quickly. Multiple pillars don't always have identical weightings, and there are sub groups within each of these groups with divergent opinions. I doubt that any of us are in a position to accurately evaluate the domestic power balance. The ball is in Putin's court, and we'll see what move he chooses to make.

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 02:36 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 03:48 PM

Dayuhan,

I think your line of argument opens questions about the long-term consequences for Russia's internal situation. Are sanctions and destabilizing Russia's economy more important than dominating in Ukraine? Is it in the U.S. interest to destablize Russia?

AP---outside of them holding nuclear weapons and having intercontinental ballistics missiles and outside of being a raw resource provider of two resources and he know how raw resource only countries have in the past developed, we have seen them block the attempts on Syria, blocked the attempts on getting an Iranian agreement, not having fulfilled the OSCE disarmament agreements they signed, and violating the Reagan signed INF, now the Crimea and now eastern Ukraine., and in the past Georgia and Moldavia.

A provocative question turning around the question---does in fact the world need Russia? If so for what and why?

It appears from just released polling Russians seem to be content in remaining isolated from the West as they blame the West for everything so why is it necessary to engage?

The idea of the land of great investments and money to be made has turned out to be just another fig leaf for the Soviet style economy, the lack of a political will to modernize and to restructure the Soviet industry mindset, and companies doing business there seem to see a risk factor now developing.

So again why the need to engage?

And yes the EU approached Russia a number of times to discuss Russian association with the EU--no comments came back from Putin and company.

So again why the need to engage?

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 04:01 PM

AP---outside of them holding nuclear weapons and having intercontinental ballistics missiles and outside of being a raw resource provider of two resources and he know how raw resource only countries have in the past developed, we have seen them block the attempts on Syria, blocked the attempts on getting an Iranian agreement, not having fulfilled the OSCE disarmament agreements they signed, and violating the Reagan signed INF, now the Crimea and now eastern Ukraine., and in the past Georgia and Moldavia.

A basic component in IR theory is the 'spoiler', which is the role Russia is playing given its (increasing) alienation from the West combined with its resurgent capabilities. IR is about relative power, and this is the most effective strategy for Russian to challenge the U.S. Historically what has kept Russia (or the USSR) together was its military power and centralized political control. Quantitatively, Russia is #2 behind the U.S. in military power and #10 economically. For those reasons, I think it's a mistake to ignore or dismiss Russia. And - as you mentioned - it has a large stockpile of nuclear weapons.

I've made the argument before that I do not think Russia qualifies as a 'traditional' Westphalian nation-state. Instead, I think Russia is better politically defined as an imperial system. In an imperial system, a political center dominates the subordinate peripheries without regard to ethnicity, nationality, etc. Principles of the Westphalian system such as territorial integrity and political sovereignty are not norms within the imperial paradigm. I think that goes a long way in explaining the vastly difference perceptions between Washington and Moscow.

A provocative question turning around the question---does in fact the world need Russia? If so for what and why?

What do you mean by "the world"?

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 05:40 PM

A basic component in IR theory is the 'spoiler', which is the role Russia is playing given its (increasing) alienation from the West combined with its resurgent capabilities. IR is about relative power, and this is the most effective strategy for Russian to challenge the U.S. Historically what has kept Russia (or the USSR) together was its military power and centralized political control. Quantitatively, Russia is #2 behind the U.S. in military power and #10 economically. For those reasons, I think it's a mistake to ignore or dismiss Russia. And - as you mentioned - it has a large stockpile of nuclear weapons.

I've made the argument before that I do not think Russia qualifies as a 'traditional' Westphalian nation-state. Instead, I think Russia is better politically defined as an imperial system. In an imperial system, a political center dominates the subordinate peripheries without regard to ethnicity, nationality, etc. Principles of the Westphalian system such as territorial integrity and political sovereignty are not norms within the imperial paradigm. I think that goes a long way in explaining the vastly difference perceptions between Washington and Moscow.

What do you mean by "the world"?

AP--in many ways Russia currently as it stands acts as a criminal rouge state with two raw resources as does as the cartels in Mexico with drugs again only with nuclear weapons. To be a superpower requires three things---economic power, military power, and political power and the power to project all three.

During the Soviet years they really only had military power and political power evolving out of that military power---they never did have true economic power. With the destruction Yukos they attempted to resolve that problem by using Gasprom now a state not private company to achieve those economic power aims through a series of gas cartels that dictated price and supplies. They even penalize countries and companies for not taking the assigned amounts in the contracts---thus now the EU cartel fines that are coming to the tune of over 10% of their yearly earnings from 2008-2012.

Putin defines his image of the world, Putin defines his image for his own population, Putin defines the reactions to that image, Putin really does not care what the west thinks as he is as anti west as his hardliners are and he views the west as basically weak and decadent and seriously does not believe in the "values" thing. And he has voiced that a number of times since his return to power.

So again--what is Russia to the world? Right now Russia is in fact as isolated as never before even during the Soviet days.

When a rouge country is offered a number of times an off ramp and does not take it then in fact it has decided to remain outside the world community.

IE---today on Interfax they stated that "see we allowed OSCE observers on our control points so it shows we are trying to deescalate" --but was it not Putin himself on his own national TV who stated that he had given his orders to have "new enhanced secured borders" to both the FSB and the Federated Border Security Service? The only reason he wants them there is the false flag operations that are ongoing-and he needs them to verify the fact that Russia is being shelled. False flag-meaning mercenaries firing into Russia to give Russia the argument ---see it is those "uncontrollable" Ukrainians again so we might need to move into the Ukraine to secure the other side and protect our own citizens.

Was it not the same Russian government that denied it had and is still firing artillery/rockets into the Ukraine which normally is an "act of war" in most countries these days even when satellite photos are released showing the opposite.

Is it not the same Russia that has someone "allowed" some of it's more modern weapons that have never been sent to the Ukraine to "somehow" cross that "enhanced secure border"? Again if the border security is "enhanced" why the need for OSCE observers.

Another tap dance to distract the world. Russia even with the OSCE invite has not allowed the OSCE teams to go to the crossing points nearest the mercenary areas near Donetsk. Why not?

So again a criminal rouge country--why criminal--the Russian mob is just about as powerful worldwide as some western countries these days especially on the cyper side of the house.

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 06:03 PM

AP--in many ways Russia currently as it stands acts as a criminal rouge state with two raw resources as does as the cartels in Mexico with drugs again only with nuclear weapons. To be a superpower requires three things---economic power, military power, and political power and the power to project all three.

During the Soviet years they really only had military power and political power evolving out of that military power---they never did have true economic power.

How does a "criminal rouge state" act? What behaviors or characteristics define a "criminal rouge state"?

That is one definition of superpower - but that's a definition that has a perception of power as absolute. But since it's more important to measure relative power, the status of superpower should be reserved for the state or states that occupy a preeminent position relative to the other states. According to a quantitative study I started, there are in fact four super-powers today (in order): U.S., China, Russia, and Japan. The political, military, and economic capabilities have these states are statisically significant from other states. Russia's strength relies on, as you have noted, their military power, and it still does today.

The dismantling of the USSR of course severely damaged Russia's economic power, and here is the problem: Russia's economic power has in fact improved significantly between 1991 and 2014. But that's not the metric used by Russia's elite; the reference point is in fact the perception of the height of the USSR's power (early to mid 1980s). And the insecurity created by this dissonance between the ascribed and desired status of Russia in large part defines the framework of the state's foreign policy.

Putin defines his image of the world, Putin defines his image for his own population, Putin defines the reactions to that image, Putin really does not care what the west thinks as he is as anti west as his hardliners are and he views the west as basically weak and decadent and seriously does not believe in the "values" thing. And he has voiced that a number of times since his return to power.

And that's an interesting evolution in Putin's policy: remember, he virtually inherited the presidency from the liberal faction when Yeltsin handed him the keys to power and for a time, he continued Yeltsin's approach with the West. Putin pushed for closer relationships with the West and championed Russia's inclusion into the World Trade Organization. In the opening phases of the War on Terrorism, he also offered to join the campaign since Russia has its own internal problems with Islamist terrorism. But what happened between 2001 and 2014? Bulgaria, Estonia, Lativa, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia all joined NATO. The Bush administration pushed for missile defense in Europe and abandoned its arms control agreement with Moscow. That was the start of the breach, and it was promptly widened further by other factors like the Iraq War, the war in Georgia, and so on.

Of course Putin is "anti-West". The U.S. is the preeminient power in the world tody. In the context of Russia's internal politics, with the aching for a restoration of Russia's power, defining oneself in opposition to the U.S. is sure to be political gold. The U.S. and Russia share responsibility in the collapse of bilateral relations; it's been a cycle of escalation for many years now. The question is how this development in the dyadic relationship will impact the international system and subsequently, international security. At what point was Russian intervention in Ukraine inevitable and what chain of events got us to that point?

The only example of complete Russian capitulation to the demands of a foreign power was World War I - and that was the Provisional Government after the failure of a military campaign in the midst of a domestic revolution. The U.S. may "win" Ukraine, and it may strengthen its political credibility among its European allies, but I doubt that will dissuade or deter Russia from pursuing actions contrary to U.S. interests. Sanctions and deploying U.S. troops to eastern Europe will serve as a signal that the U.S.-Russia conflict is now institutionalized, and it will facilitate further confrontation in the future when Russia responds in kind (and they will).

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 06:17 PM

So again--what is Russia to the world? Right now Russia is in fact as isolated as never before even during the Soviet days.

This is why I asked you what you meant by "the world"? Is Russia relatively more isolated from the handful of countries that make up "The West"? Yes. In a narrow political definition, you could define "The West" as "the world" insofar that the West is largely responsible for the construction and maintenance of the current international system.

But the international system is always in flux. Russia is not isolated from the absolute majority of states - and it is not isolated from contenders for international power outside of the West, including China and India (and to a smaller extent, Iran and some South American states). Statistically speaking, Russia is a major economy (ranked #8 in the world), and after the U.S., has the largest capability for military power projection. And, since 1991, its track record in conflicts has been comparable to the U.S. (approximately 70% ending in favor). So why is Russia perceived as a failed or second-rate state?

Is it because the U.S. 'won' the Cold War? If so, that conflict ended more than 20 years ago; that's an increasingly irrelevant reference point in measuring Russia's current capabilities. That's not to say that Russia does not have its own vulnerabilities - it still has a number of political stability issues to sort out, as well as weaknesses in the structure of its economy. Between the late 1940s and 1980s, the USSR was one of the leading industrial and scientific states after the U.S. That potential still exists in Russia but that might require giving the technocrats more power in government (not sure if that's political feasible given the state of affairs).

The conflict in Ukraine must be analyzed in this context, and it must also further be analyzed with the long-view in mind about what U.S. interests are towards a Russia that is increasing in its capabilities, confidence, and disenchantment with its international status.

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 06:34 PM

Additionally: many of the trends today give credence to the argument that the international system is approaching a possible paradigm shift in global power. What do I mean by paradigm shift in global power? I mean the difference between pre- and post- Congress of Vienna; pre- and post- World War II. Pre- and post- Soviet collapse. Perceptions of relative power often drive the events that lead to the paradigm shift (more often than not, it's sealed by blood through war).

So if the perception is that U.S. relative power is in retrenchment, and Russian (or Chinese) power is increasing, how does that affect state behavior? In my previous posts, I discussed how Russia's historical references points about its past status frames its current decision-making (as opposed to current conditions framing the decisions); so if the U.S. is in retrenchment, and it perceives the power of other states to be increasing, will the U.S. be more or less likely to escalate conflict? As time progresses, the window for the U.S. to act to protect its status closes as other states approach parity. And for the contenders, time works to their advantage. The Russians may be perceiving that this is an opportune time for them to increase their power.

Now, how the U.S.-Russian dyadic unfolds within the context of a U.S. led international system is one thing. But how it affects U.S. interests after a paradigm shift is harder to calculate. For one thing, the triggering mechanism is difficult to assess - it could be the outcome of a major conflict (Napoleonic Wars, World War I, World War II), or it could be a significant political (Great Britain) or economic event (Soviet Union). That's because all of the norms and perceptions taken for granted become irrelevant. That's why it's important to take the long view of the Ukraine conflict - are we setting the conditions for future challenges to U.S. power?

OUTLAW 09

07-30-2014, 07:08 PM

How does a "criminal rouge state" act? What behaviors or characteristics define a "criminal rouge state"?

That is one definition of superpower - but that's a definition that has a perception of power as absolute. But since it's more important to measure relative power, the status of superpower should be reserved for the state or states that occupy a preeminent position relative to the other states. According to a quantitative study I started, there are in fact four super-powers today (in order): U.S., China, Russia, and Japan. The political, military, and economic capabilities have these states are statisically significant from other states. Russia's strength relies on, as you have noted, their military power, and it still does today.

The dismantling of the USSR of course severely damaged Russia's economic power, and here is the problem: Russia's economic power has in fact improved significantly between 1991 and 2014. But that's not the metric used by Russia's elite; the reference point is in fact the perception of the height of the USSR's power (early to mid 1980s). And the insecurity created by this dissonance between the ascribed and desired status of Russia in large part defines the framework of the state's foreign policy.

And that's an interesting evolution in Putin's policy: remember, he virtually inherited the presidency from the liberal faction when Yeltsin handed him the keys to power and for a time, he continued Yeltsin's approach with the West. Putin pushed for closer relationships with the West and championed Russia's inclusion into the World Trade Organization. In the opening phases of the War on Terrorism, he also offered to join the campaign since Russia has its own internal problems with Islamist terrorism. But what happened between 2001 and 2014? Bulgaria, Estonia, Lativa, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia all joined NATO. The Bush administration pushed for missile defense in Europe and abandoned its arms control agreement with Moscow. That was the start of the breach, and it was promptly widened further by other factors like the Iraq War, the war in Georgia, and so on.

Of course Putin is "anti-West". The U.S. is the preeminient power in the world tody. In the context of Russia's internal politics, with the aching for a restoration of Russia's power, defining oneself in opposition to the U.S. is sure to be political gold. The U.S. and Russia share responsibility in the collapse of bilateral relations; it's been a cycle of escalation for many years now. The question is how this development in the dyadic relationship will impact the international system and subsequently, international security. At what point was Russian intervention in Ukraine inevitable and what chain of events got us to that point?

The only example of complete Russian capitulation to the demands of a foreign power was World War I - and that was the Provisional Government after the failure of a military campaign in the midst of a domestic revolution. The U.S. may "win" Ukraine, and it may strengthen its political credibility among its European allies, but I doubt that will dissuade or deter Russia from pursuing actions contrary to U.S. interests. Sanctions and deploying U.S. troops to eastern Europe will serve as a signal that the U.S.-Russia conflict is now institutionalized, and it will facilitate further confrontation in the future when Russia responds in kind (and they will).

AP--would actually argue that the Soviet Union of the 70/80s was not an economic power--was there in 72 for over six weeks camping throughout the SU--if that was economic power then those in the Smokey Mountains were living in luxury.

The reason the SU collapsed as well as the GDR was in fact due to the failure of their economic systems---actually failures created by the Communist Party and the Soviet style of economical measurements of economic success--metric tons, feet of rolled steel, number of ships built and tons of grain produced etc.

The producing elements lied to the next higher and they lied to the highest and that misled the ruling elite to think they were succeeding beyond their wildest dreams. A total Ponzi scheme that started falling apart in the early 80s and even the citizens of the GDR and the SU knew it in the streets--the ruling elite did not though.

Do not forget for a moment that it was Putin as a KGB COL that recruited GDR citizens to potentially take over the GDR in a coup because he and other KGB officers in Dresden felt that Honecker was going weak. Notice the continence of thoughts and actions 38 years later?

Putin's anti west has been around for a really long time not just now.

Right now Russia is in fact a rouge country regardless of how one wants to define rouge.

Putin has his own doctrine now the Putin Doctrine which defines Russian territory to include any territory where Russians reside regardless if in another country---Russians as defined by ethnicity, culture, and language.

Based on that definition Mexico could claim to want to "represent " all "Spanish speakers" in San Antonia, TX based on Putin's definition, smuggle in irregulars and arms--- they would be in fact just be following Putin's led.

So with roughly 300 hotspots around the globe especially in Africa when language/ethnicity are now in play and border poorly drawn- the Putin Doctrine will raise it's head all over again and others will point to him and say he did it so can we.

I disagree--right now Putin needs the Euros/USDs as much as the west needs energy---the problem is this adventure of his will in fact damage an already struggling economy, modernization will be pushed aside, privatization which means really more oligarchs will be delayed if not pushed aside, and new technologies badly needed will not come in. So while the rest of the world develops Russia is going backwards after 1994 and even further backwards now with the sanctions.

On top of this to rebuild the abilities that the Russians have been getting cheap military equipment from the Ukrainians will cost a massive amount and years to replicate as well as a number of other technologies the Ukrainians have been providing at cheap rates much as they did under the SU days.

In some aspects the drive to rebuild the empire that Putin foresees is really the rebuilding of the economic imperialism of the SU where the satellites provided cheap products to the mothership.

You see the inability of Russia/Putin to answer the west sanctions outside of a threat to raise the gas prices and stop fruit and vegetables. Yes they can import the fruit and vegetables from China or other countries but not as cheap as they have been getting it from the EU, raise the gas prices and the EU cartel hammer comes down and the prices for EU goods going into Russia will be higher. And Putin runs the risk that the really hard sanctions on gas come into being driving even further his economy backwards.

AmericanPride

07-30-2014, 07:11 PM

Outlaw,

Lastly, a spoiler in IR is not strong enough to dictate its terms unilaterally except in localized conditions but it is strong enough to obstruct the interests of other states. That's why Russia is relevant to U.S. and international security. It's perceived status is much greater than its ascribed status, and that generates insecurity, leading to confrontational and spoiling strategies. Russia already does not benefit significantly from the current balance of power, and increasing its isolation from the West will only reinforce the incentive to act as a spoiler.

In the long-term, what does a spoiler mean for the U.S.? For one thing, it means that while the U.S. is expending more resources and commiting more capabilities than what would otherwise be necessary, it creates opportunities for other states to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities. This takes us back to power transitions in international systems. The U.S. - Russian conflict benefits Russia to a small extent because it strengthens the domestic credibility of the regime and denies the U.S. increases in its relative gains compared to Russia. But it benefits China the most who will face less U.S. challenges to its interests. So - that is why I have asked (repeatedly), to what extent is Ukraine worth breaking the U.S.-Russian relationship? What good does it do long-term U.S. interests elsewhere? How does it affect the international system, which currently favors the U.S.? So, I'm skeptical of the utility of destroying or significantly destabilizing Russia.