Counting sheep...

[jcustis]

Literally, and in all seriousness...:D

Can anyone describe techniques to estimate the size of a flock of sheep, assuming you are at least 100m away from it and cannot funnel the critters in through any gate of sorts to establish a deliberate count?

[SWJED]

Literally, and in all seriousness...:D

Can anyone describe techniques to estimate the size of a flock of sheep, assuming you are at least 100m away from it and cannot funnel the critters in through any gate of sorts to establish a deliberate count?

Oh, oh, Jon - did you fall asleep in TBS? I aced the hollow-horned typically gregarious ruminant mammals accountabily practical application test. Wish I remembered how I did that...

Seriously, Jon does not ask if it is not important. Anyone?

[Old Eagle]

When I was a kid, I'd ride with my grandpa out to check the cattle when they were grazing (as opposed to when they were in feeder lots). We'd drive down the dusty road by the pasture in our rickety pick-up and grandpa would proudly announce that all were accounted for. So I asked the old man how he could count cattle so fast. He then explained that he simply counted the legs, then divided by four :D

I later learned that this must be some sort of rural humor when my dairy farmer uncle explained that he inventoried his herd by counting teats and dividing by four.

Maybe Slapout can modify one of the crowd density templates police use to estimate crowds so it applies to sheep.

[John T. Fishel]

Question: Do you have any way of getting a photo, preferably from the air but otherwise any photo would do?

Guess not.:(

When I'm walking or riding the country roads around Rancho La Espada or driving in to work, I often see herds of cattle, horses, or even buffalo - herds of various sizes. Some are as close as a few feet; others as far as a couple hundred meters. Best I've been able to do is count what I can see easily and extrapolate. Which seems to be what cops do when estimating crowd size as in a demonstration.

That smart alec comment should draw Slapout 9 out of his Alabama hideaway. :cool:

Good luck.

JohnT

[Entropy]

...that has us discussing this topic!

Anyway, I did a bit of research on flock density and discovered a ROT: The maximum density of a penned flock is about 2 sheep per square meter. The only thing I can think of is to look at the amount of land the flock is on (maybe using a map), estimate the overall density of the flock using 2 per square meter as the upper limit, and swag it from there.

[selil]

Dang. Look up how they get bird counts.

It go's something like this. Look at an area and count out ten sheep in a section or percentage of the herd(oh like 20X20 feet). Take the number in that section , then figure the number of sections. You're counting on the Gausian bell curve to to keep an average going. So you have ten, and that is 100th the size of the herd you have 1000 sheep.

Look about 2/3rds of the way down the page here http://ebird.org/content/ebird/news/bird-counting-101

[slapout9]

Maybe Slapout can modify one of the crowd density templates police use to estimate crowds so it applies to sheep.

Man that is cold:wry:

I used to get "Goat calls" for real, they would get out of their pens and wonder around like loose cattle. For some reason they did not like the mail man, I mean the postal carrier was usually the complainant.

As for counting crowds we used to carry a small hand counter like the door man used to carry at night clubs to count customers. You look at what ever you are counting and just click away, it is extremely fast and accurate. I think they were about 10 bucks. We used these for alot of things counting cars in parking lots, doors and windows of buildings etc. they can be very useful for understanding what is going on in your patrol beat. This is an old timers TTP I have know idea how the new computer,GPS,crowd does it.

Take a picture if you can and count them later.


Below is a link and a picture what I am talking about.

http://www.wildco.com/vw_prdct_mdl.asp?prdct_mdl_cd=182B40

[Ken White]

I bet they're in the GSA catalog. That's the item one of my sons PDs uses today for crowd count...

[Danny]

Sheep hang out in herds rather than flocks.:D

[Rob Thornton]

Man that is cold

at least OE did not mention those "fashionably sheep tall rubber boots" they wear down there in AL:D

Seriously Jon- are you talking about a method the Americans can use to count sheep, or something the locals can use and sustain? If you are able to describe the purpose of the count, we might be able to help more. Found a decent web site Sheep Farming 101 (http://www.sheep101.info/farm.html) which may allow you to link to the sheep experts.
Best, Rob

[slapout9]

I bet they're in the GSA catalog. That's the item one of my sons PDs uses today for crowd count...

Ken, headcount in mess halls,yep bet you have seen them used as pace counters too in land Navigation instead of worry beads:)


I asked my wife how to count sheep heards and said she would start with one....and then two....and then three:)

[Ken White]

Herds. Sheep hang out in herds rather than flocks.:Dall three are used interchangeably, depends on where one's located.

[jcustis]

Gentlemen,

Thank you for the multitude of replies, and the recommendation of the obvious (take a picture) that was not so obvious due to my over-thinking of the issue.

I've got to push reconnaissance tasks for elements that have to confirm previous SWEAT assessments; this time we are planning to do something about some of the areas within our larger non-kinetic effects campaign.

Looking at opportunities for mobile veterinary services and improving what current services may exist are just a couple of our task ideas.

[William F. Owen]

Dang. Look up how they get bird counts.

It go's something like this. Look at an area and count out ten sheep in a section or percentage of the herd(oh like 20X20 feet). Take the number in that section , then figure the number of sections. You're counting on the Gausian bell curve to to keep an average going. So you have ten, and that is 100th the size of the herd you have 1000 sheep.

Look about 2/3rds of the way down the page here http://ebird.org/content/ebird/news/bird-counting-101

As a former "assistant shepherd", (No joke. I really was from 16-18 years of age) this is how it's done. More than that, the real good herders just look at a flock and guess to within 2-5% how many head there are.

Lambing throws it all out as they can walk between the Ewes and you'll never see them.

I am assured that the Palestinian/Negev/Sinai Bedouin (IMO, about the worlds most dedicated shepherds, as concerns pure hard work) can actually tell if they have lost as few as one or two from as many as 100, but that may come from something that cannot be taught. Never asked one to find out.

[Shek]

As a former "assistant shepherd", (No joke. I really was from 16-18 years of age) this is how it's done. More than that, the real good herders just look at a flock and guess to within 2-5% how many head there are.

Sounds like The Wisdom of Crowds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds) may not apply here given that accuracy.

[Rob Thornton]

Will's observations bring up a good point Jon - why not look to incorporate the farmers in your assessment? Just like we've established local security councils, you might consider working with the PRTs or other groups/orgs if you have some in your area to establish "agricultural councils".

While such a council may not lead to a Co-Op or like group, it may at least help you get refined answers by providing the folks who do the farming a forum to discuss what matters to them wrt to sheep or agriculture in general. It may also help local government close the gap as well.

The sheep market we had in Mosul was an interesting place for sure. It was more then just a place to sell sheep, it had cultural significance, etc. At times it was the scene of criminal and insurgent activities (which can be hard to tell apart at times). It was occasionally the site of a murder or fire fight.

Whatever you do, I'd recommend doing it with an eye toward what is sustainable and acceptable. The SWEAT assessment is a good start, but considering how what you learn will translate back into your plan will affect not only the kind of info you collect, but the manner you collect it. The improving of veterinary services could be very important both as a short term stimulus, but also with an eye toward building Iraqi institutional capacity - such as working with Iraqi universities, even if they are not in your AO.

Sheep would be an interesting project because it gets linked to so many other issues - use of land, markets & regulation, sanitation & health, textiles (wool), education, environmental impacts & because of those - crime and security.

I'd recommend sitting down with the development folks in the PRT,or whoever the closest and most relevant development folks are and going over the ideas. This may also ensure that the plan is linked to other existing efforts, and that it gets the most buy in possible so that as your unit eventually rotates out, the good work you guys have done is sustained.

Best, Rob

[jcustis]

I'd recommend sitting down with the development folks in the PRT,or whoever the closest and most relevant development folks are and going over the ideas. This may also ensure that the plan is linked to other existing efforts, and that it gets the most buy in possible so that as your unit eventually rotates out, the good work you guys have done is sustained.

If it were only that easy...

We have an ePRT, and conducted a RIP with another like unit, but our battlespace has changed significantly to encompass area that has previously not seen any enduring coalition presence.

The linkage can be built for sure, but unfortunately (and this may be grist for another thread altogether) the mantra being spoken by the PRT is to tie our actions in the AO to the particular District that this area falls within. This District is tied to single urban area, in terms of mayoral and council powers and distribution of funds. It would be easy to push "By, with, and through" and coordinate development, civic action, projects, etc. between the people of our AO and said District, but even the mayor himself relates that the people outside of his town are aligned with another town altogether.

What is even more frustrating is the pitch that project contracts can be let to better link the District seat with the people in the hinterlands. This flies in the face of the tribal reality that when folks in my AO need something, they don't go to the District seat, but rather to towns and tribal ties that are hundreds of kilometers in the other direction. Start trying to contract well improvements, veterinary services and the like with a contractor from where the PRT is leaning would undoubtedly piss a lot of influencial shieks off. It's so apparent that trying to fit the round peg into the square hole flies in the face of COIN, tribal sensitivities, and practical development strategies, that I wonder if the PRT effort is truly synchronized.

The unified plan for this province has a lot of tasks, intermediate goals, and objectives that were laid out back in May of this year. I am trying to focus on doing at least one (and not much more) thing extremely well, so as not to dilute what non-kinetic power we have across a huge spreadsheet of potential projects and tasks. It seems that one thing hold true in the LOO world...it is best to work one project/task from start to finish, rather than trying to juggle many at once. The process is sibjected to a pressure cooker of sorts because many Iraqis express a multitude of immediate needs and requirements, and we want so desparately to show progress, to show efforts applied...

Some teams can do this well, but when you have a shocking limit on the number of CAG resources and one PRT rep to cover a huge AO, I think starting small and staying small is the best way to go.

Thank goodness I have clear intent from the TF Cmdr regarding what he desires out of the "LOO work". It makes up for a lot of shortfalls elsewhere.

[Rob Thornton]

when dealing with people

Sounds like you are going to have to struggle with the question of how you make it meet closest enough to the middle where enough folks are satisfied. I think you are right given the thumbnail sketch of the resources you have at hand to narrow your focus, but I think articulating the problem like you did above is key to building shared understanding between the participants.

The two ends you describe (tribal vs. district govt.) are probably going generate friction and resistance. The sheiks I imagine are none to anxious to give up authority, influence, or revenue. The people are probably suspect of any government's sincerity in helping them - particularly if they see themselves as belonging to another tribe and not representing the interests of the district politicians. The district politicians themselves are probably anxious to increase the resources available to them, dis-empower their rivals some, etc. as long as fulfilling their obligations is left up to them - they are after all politicians. Its weird, but when I think of it like that its local rural politics - just different issues, stakes and consequences.

Still, even if you are focused, the need for shared understanding across all the efforts is still needed. It may not be you that has that responsibility, but reconciling these types of positions toward something tolerable is going to make things more sustainable and eventually help the Iraqis get some momentum going that allows them to better meet their needs. I realize that at our level we're just cogs in the machine, but just the process of development of your project may inform on the development of other LOOs by other folks.

This I think is part of the hardest work - because it means establishing an ad-hoc network of folks, some of whom may not be U.S., and getting them to see past their immediate concerns and consider how things relate to one another and what are the consequences of their actions or inactions. This really gets hard as you are competing for the same resources, and committed to mission at hand. When there is only 24 hours in the day, and what happens tomorrow or next seems as important as what happens next month or next year to us or the Iraqis, compromising is luxury allot of folks don't have. You having a ground level perspective provides the granularity of how things play out on the ground.

I don't know if you are doing something like this, but an OPSUM of what is relevant for the day rolled up and sent out to the U.S. folks you think have either a direct or related equity is a good way to facilitate a discussion between a group of folks that are on different schedules with allot of demands. The challenge is ensuring the communication is packaged in a way that gets folks out of their "kung fu" stance with regard to their own immediate interests, and causes them to open up and see the relevance.

Every one of these is going to be a little different because the stakes and the people are different, so each one has to be articulated a little different.

I know this is beyond the scope of the original thread, but this comes back to it being a people problem. It raises the question of how do we do this better. While meeting the people's needs assists us in countering the existing insurgency, ultimately, finding a way for the people to tolerate government (and by that I mean that the various forms of government are not in violent competition, are somewhat synchronized, and at each level can do the basic things that local folks expect) may be what makes it sustainable, and more resistant to insurgency.

Its hard for me to envy you brother, I suspect you have allot of headaches in front of you, and each day will likely only get harder because the more you look for who has some related interest, the more people you find, and the bulk of them are interested only in furthering their own immediate interests. However, I can say that on the back end I'll bet you come away better for it, with a better understanding of people, and a sense of having done something different then anything else you've done in the military. I'd also recommend using the council beyond the asking of questions. Your thoughts here matter now as much or more then they did back at Quantico - just the post you made above helps us all think and understand better the challenges of doing security and development in places like Iraq.

Best, Rob

[120mm]

As a former "assistant shepherd", (No joke. I really was from 16-18 years of age) this is how it's done. More than that, the real good herders just look at a flock and guess to within 2-5% how many head there are.

Lambing throws it all out as they can walk between the Ewes and you'll never see them.

I am assured that the Palestinian/Negev/Sinai Bedouin (IMO, about the worlds most dedicated shepherds, as concerns pure hard work) can actually tell if they have lost as few as one or two from as many as 100, but that may come from something that cannot be taught. Never asked one to find out.

Good Lord, Wilf; we have something in common! I had a flock (Seriously, where I come from, sheep come in flocks; goats came in herds, and geese came in gaggles...) of 300 ewes, and a varying number of bucks and lambs, depending on the season.

And, I generally accounted for them by the area they occupied. And I went by the 2 per m^2 method.

[jcustis]

The challenge is ensuring the communication is packaged in a way that gets folks out of their "kung fu" stance with regard to their own immediate interests, and causes them to open up and see the relevance.

It is so interesting that you put it that way, and that might have to go into a signature line some day.

If it were easy, anyone could do it, so I don't disparage the inevitable headaches, especially since I spent the last three years asking, what about victory for the Iraqi people? and now is my chance to work towards that.

I suppose I should have known better, but the notion of integrating our efforts into a larger plan involving a PRT sounded at first like an easy silver bullet. It is now clear that the issues of man hours, resource prioritization, etc., come down to the simple equation that there aren't enough hours in the day, and you will always have to push against the Insha'Allah effect to roll that rock up the hill. At the end of the day, you can only drink so much chai before it is time to start pushing that chain or swimming up that waterfall. I'm beating the dead horse of analogy here because it is just very frustrating to be the economy of force with not much in the way of a guiding light.

One shocker is that the district lines here haven't changed much at all since 1958 (our PRT hand knew that history), so these informal relationships and ties have formed over a long time. So long, in fact, that even testing the limits of the tribal fabric has to be a very calculated process. We may not feel the second and third order effects, but adjacent battlespace owners may/will.


The sheiks I imagine are none to anxious to give up authority, influence, or revenue. The people are probably suspect of any government's sincerity in helping them - particularly if they see themselves as belonging to another tribe and not representing the interests of the district politicians. The district politicians themselves are probably anxious to increase the resources available to them, dis-empower their rivals some, etc. as long as fulfilling their obligations is left up to them - they are after all politicians. Its weird, but when I think of it like that its local rural politics - just different issues, stakes and consequences.

Rob, that passage above is exactly what I and my deputy LOO guy are staring at. I know there is middle ground there, but right now all I know are the far extremes of the box. Because we have not maintained a significant presence in this particular area, nobody at higher has a grasp on where that middle ground may lay (we are estimated to be a couple years behind where urban areas are in terms of these issues). They think they know, but the reality is that key leader engagements in their zone cannot be transplanted to fit our circumstances...that's why we're looking at sheep as the first area to be considered and targeted.

You've given me a lot to consider with your reply, as always. "Tomorrow brings another opportunity to excel," as I often say to my staff. :D

[Rob Thornton]

Jon,
CSM Sa'adi (the 1/2/2 IA CSM) were talking to some farmers out by the Tigris just NNE of Mosul during an operation about their needs, their crops, local activities, the enemy, etc. I liked the lay of the land and remarked to the CSM that one day I would not mind owning some land like that. He asked me what I'd grow - at first I said grapes (it reminded me of a local winery I'd visited in Yakima, WA). He thought I meant there near Mosul and said it'd be better if I grew olives. I asked him why. He told me he could then raise sheep on the land next to mine - they could eat my olives and we'd both have fat sheep to eat that tasted good.

We all laughed about the joke he'd made, but there was also something revealing about his outlook that I noted time and again. His willingness to compromise or to find compromise. He was a pragmatic type fellow, a good soldier and a good friend. Like you I know middle ground is out there, sometimes you have to work to find it, and sometimes it finds you. What often makes a difference is what you are able to do with it when it shows up.

Best, Rob

[slapout9]

Jon,
CSM Sa'adi (the 1/2/2 IA CSM) were talking to some farmers out by the Tigris just NNE of Mosul during an operation about their needs, their crops, local activities, the enemy, etc. I liked the lay of the land and remarked to the CSM that one day I would not mind owning some land like that. He asked me what I'd grow - at first I said grapes (it reminded me of a local winery I'd visited in Yakima, WA). He thought I meant there near Mosul and said it'd be better if I grew olives. I asked him why. He told me he could then raise sheep on the land next to mine - they could eat my olives and we'd both have fat sheep to eat that tasted good.

We all laughed about the joke he'd made, but there was also something revealing about his outlook that I noted time and again. His willingness to compromise or to find compromise. He was a pragmatic type fellow, a good soldier and a good friend. Like you I know middle ground is out there, sometimes you have to work to find it, and sometimes it finds you. What often makes a difference is what you are able to do with it when it shows up.

Best, Rob


Rob, I checked down at the Slapout hardware store and they give a military discount on their rubber boots:wry:

[Rob Thornton]

Slap - better to get them from the Sportsmans Guide (http://shop.sportsmansguide.com/default.asp?kwtid=239433) - then you can get some that are insulated. Better for Kansas deer and duck hunting that way:D

Best Rob

[William F. Owen]

Good Lord, Wilf; we have something in common!

Probably more than you know. If you have a signed picture of Natalie Portman on your office wall and drink root beer, then we are probably related.

[John T. Fishel]

Jon--

One approach to filling in the blank spaces is to develop a series of linkage diagrams - in my doctoral dissertation I called them pseudo maps - showing how the people of various places are related to each other. For example, one showed economic flows between and among villages even as far as the national capital. Another showed transportation links. A third showed marriage patterns, while a fourth showed governmental links. In your case tribal and religous patterns of interaction would be important. I can see building these diagrams on overlays of a topographical map.

Gathering the data is something that really only requires talking with people who know and it can and should be completely overt. Seems to me that the PRT guys could help a lot on putting this together.

The result would be that you would have a much better definition of the problem that could lead you (a collective term for coalition and local folk) in the direction of solutions.

Hope this is helpful.

Cheers

JohnT

[William F. Owen]

One approach to filling in the blank spaces is to develop a series of linkage diagrams - in my doctoral dissertation I called them pseudo maps - showing how the people of various places are related to each other. For example, one showed economic flows between and among villages even as far as the national capital. Another showed transportation links. A third showed marriage patterns, while a fourth showed governmental links. In your case tribal and religous patterns of interaction would be important. I can see building these diagrams on overlays of a topographical map.

T

This is rock hard good. The French used "organigrams" in Algeria, and I know of other armies who have used similar ideas in COIN, and I think it is widely used in Policing. I'd clean forgotten about this aspect. One to file in the "good ideas" bin.

[slapout9]

Jon--

One approach to filling in the blank spaces is to develop a series of linkage diagrams - in my doctoral dissertation I called them pseudo maps - showing how the people of various places are related to each other. For example, one showed economic flows between and among villages even as far as the national capital. Another showed transportation links. A third showed marriage patterns, while a fourth showed governmental links. In your case tribal and religous patterns of interaction would be important. I can see building these diagrams on overlays of a topographical map.

Gathering the data is something that really only requires talking with people who know and it can and should be completely overt. Seems to me that the PRT guys could help a lot on putting this together.

The result would be that you would have a much better definition of the problem that could lead you (a collective term for coalition and local folk) in the direction of solutions.

Hope this is helpful.

Cheers

JohnT


Hi John, can you post your diagrams or the whole dissertation?

[120mm]

Probably more than you know. If you have a signed picture of Natalie Portman on your office wall and drink root beer, then we are probably related.

Frankly, I'm getting tired of her calling the house and then hanging up. My wife is getting annoyed, and may be getting suspicious that we might still have something going on....:rolleyes:

I'm most fond of Sioux City Sasparilla, a form of root beer made in Sioux City, Iowa that is pretty tasty.

[jcustis]

That's a great photo Rob. I saw a similar tranquil scene on the way from Tikrit during my first deploy, about 5 km south of Samara. I remember saying to myself that I could buy land there.

Our ePRT guy pulled me aside after sensing some of my obvious frustration today, and he broke things down to some extent, and then left me with a resounding truth. We are saying the same thing, but some of it is just getting lost in translation.

I'm not daunted yet! :D

[jcustis]

I just read through this thread from top to bottom, and what you said about a post providing perspective struck a chord, so I wanted to relate a few interesting lessons I have already learned.

First off, the pace of transition is occuring at a rapid rate across this country, and every day the bad guys are seeing their water dry up just ever more. The sheiks, elected councils, provincial governments in Anbar are really moving along. I can't put a finger to what sparked the flame, but it is happening.

I am bearing witness, however, to the realities of development in an area that has arbitrary district lines drawn across economic and tribal boundaries. Development delays haven't so much been the lack of movement of money into areas outside of Baghdad, but rather a myriad of factors, like the inability of elected councils to organize themselves and produce budgets, POA&Ms, infrastructure assessments, etc. Add to that the inevitable intrigue of the sheiks, the charlatans pretending to be sheiks, and the otherwise self-interested, and the simple fact remains that in many cases, it has been next to impossible for Iraqis to help themselves, because they have to do it in spite of themselves.

When you remove state controls like those that were present under the Saddam regime, expect the results to be messy. Imagine if someone told you that you didn't have to pay taxes anymore, but you had to organize with your neighbors to take care of pooling money to provide maintenance for the stretch of street in front of your house, or to fix the transformer on the pole, or any other collective public good that is out there. That's what these people face, and for some who have clawed to maintain a living, they cannot ever see themselves as greedy when they take a cut, or sell off materials to black marketeers or even their own tribe at an ridiculous price. Their instinct to survive is strong, and it shapes behavior in ways that I am only now seeing for what they really are. As a result, I am beginning to really gain a better grasp of what has taken these folks so long to stand up and 1) be heard, 2) rise up against those who would kill fellow Iraqis in their pursuit of killing coalition forces, and 3) seek that middle ground and compromise which is in their best interest (but almost impossible to recognize).

I come from a tiny town in New Jersey, and I always snigger at the front page of the local news paper when I go home, because the print dedicated to detailing the dramas of local township, city, and county government is enough to make me shake my head. I'm seeing the same things here though, so we are slowly closing the gap between our inertia and theirs...:wry:

[slapout9]

Hi JC, Not to change the subject to much but this article describes how flow analysis can be used similar to what John T. talked about and yes it is used in LE and I am a big fan of this type of analysis it can be very revealing. The article talks about Iraq but my suggestion is to use in your hometown...we are not as different as we think we just have different names for the process es. You could even use it on Sheep:wry: John T.'s idea of putting it on a map would be even better. I used to do this to drug neighborhoods(they often buy a lot of house for various reason,bet insurgents do to) as I say verrrry interesting what you come up with. I will be quiet now:)


http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20081031_art018.pdf

PS this is systems thinking par excel-lance!

[jcustis]

at least OE did not mention those "fashionably sheep tall rubber boots" they wear down there in AL:D

Seriously Jon- are you talking about a method the Americans can use to count sheep, or something the locals can use and sustain? If you are able to describe the purpose of the count, we might be able to help more. Found a decent web site Sheep Farming 101 (http://www.sheep101.info/farm.html) which may allow you to link to the sheep experts.
Best, Rob

Good link Rob. Some of the pictures were a little, err, interesting...but I have a solid grasp of the sheep world, and can now have our guys ask the right qeustions that will provide some good feedback about the health of this basic livelihood means around here.

[selil]

In a strange attempt regarding CBRN sheep will now be required to wear gas masks.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/09/article-1074749-02F2954800000578-464_233x365.jpg
No really LINK (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1074749/A-baaa-d-idea-Aussie-sheep-wear-gas-masks-scientists-breath-affect-climate.html)













I'm laughing to hard to really care if it is a joke or not...