SWJED
03-26-2006, 12:29 PM
From Josh at The Adventures of Chester - What Happens if Kim Kicks the Bucket? (http://www.theadventuresofchester.com/archives/2006/03/what_happens_if.html).
... You heard it here first. Hmmmm . . . There are way too many variables on that little peninsula for me to be of much good here, but my guess is one of the following scenarios if Kim's life is coming to an end:
1. Last-ditch gotterdammerung-ish "take them all with me" tactic on his part
2. A coup from within, but whether by reformers or hardliners, who's to know...
3. Regime collapse. Rather than "coup"ing, those who might have chosen a coup choose to bail instead and sit on a beach earning 20% for the rest of their lives. Signs of this would be: "dissident" activity begins to go unpunished; internal security forces choose to no longer enforce party doctrine; refugees stream south and into China; mass desertions from the army take place;
What probably won't happen:
1. Pre-emptive US military action; except perhaps on a very limited scale if we suspect they will lose control of their nukes, but I doubt we have the means to make a judgment like that.
2. A "color" revolution of some kind; the NKs are not nearly exposed enough to the rest of the world to have developed the intestinal fortitude to attempt something a la Ukraine or Lebanon...
... You heard it here first. Hmmmm . . . There are way too many variables on that little peninsula for me to be of much good here, but my guess is one of the following scenarios if Kim's life is coming to an end:
1. Last-ditch gotterdammerung-ish "take them all with me" tactic on his part
2. A coup from within, but whether by reformers or hardliners, who's to know...
3. Regime collapse. Rather than "coup"ing, those who might have chosen a coup choose to bail instead and sit on a beach earning 20% for the rest of their lives. Signs of this would be: "dissident" activity begins to go unpunished; internal security forces choose to no longer enforce party doctrine; refugees stream south and into China; mass desertions from the army take place;
What probably won't happen:
1. Pre-emptive US military action; except perhaps on a very limited scale if we suspect they will lose control of their nukes, but I doubt we have the means to make a judgment like that.
2. A "color" revolution of some kind; the NKs are not nearly exposed enough to the rest of the world to have developed the intestinal fortitude to attempt something a la Ukraine or Lebanon...