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Granite_State
11-13-2008, 04:27 PM
There's a quote I've seen probably a dozen times, about the military percentage of a counterinsurgency solution may be 20% or 80%, but it's the first 20% or 80%. Anyone happen to know the exact quote, and who said it (I'm thinking a Malaya Emergency figure for some reason)? Much appreciated.

JT Clark
11-13-2008, 06:01 PM
Templer mentioned that the shooting end of the business was around 25% but it was Galula that coined (I know- that was terrible) the 80:20 ratio.

You'll find two articles here from some switched-on Aussies ;) that quote it.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/kilcullen1.pdf

http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-temp/70-hammond.pdf

Cavguy
11-13-2008, 06:14 PM
Templer mentioned that the shooting end of the business was around 25% but it was Galula that coined (I know- that was terrible) the 80:20 ratio.

You'll find two articles here from some switched-on Aussies ;) that quote it.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/kilcullen1.pdf

http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-temp/70-hammond.pdf

Actually Galula didn't originate that, if you read the footnotes in his book, he was quoting a Chinese general.

Niel

JT Clark
11-13-2008, 06:43 PM
...never where ones for detail.

Granite_State
11-13-2008, 11:06 PM
Thanks guys. But anyone know where the part about the military/security ingredient being the FIRST 20% comes from?

max161
11-14-2008, 01:30 AM
"in war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one." I think extrapolating that you can say that in COIN the political is to the military as ten is to one - of course Galula and others said 80/20 but I think 10 to 1 is more powerful of a statement.

SWJED
11-14-2008, 03:11 AM
Something to think about concerning COIN - Dave Kilcullen brought this up last year during his COIN seminar at Quantico - even if you buy the 80 - 20 that does not mean the military does 20% - the military conducts many activities that can be regarded as part of the 80% political during COIN.

Ron Humphrey
11-14-2008, 03:20 AM
Whenever I get to looking at the pol/mil balance it occurs to me that it reminds me of those 3D holographic pics where what you see up front is a bunch of the same but once you look closely enough the other pics start to come out.

Can anyone tell me what percentage of those pictures are the front/back:wry:

Mike in Hilo
11-14-2008, 03:28 AM
Granite State: He may not have been the first to say it even in the Vietnam context, but John Vann was fond of urging the advisers to remember that while security may be only 10% of the problem or it may be 90%, "but remember, it's always the first 10%--or the first 90%"....

Cheers,
Mike.

Ken White
11-14-2008, 03:36 AM
Main Force or Local Force? :D

Granite_State
11-14-2008, 04:20 AM
Granite State: He may not have been the first to say it even in the Vietnam context, but John Vann was fond of urging the advisers to remember that while security may be only 10% of the problem or it may be 90%, "but remember, it's always the first 10%--or the first 90%"....

Cheers,
Mike.

Perfect, that's exactly what I was looking for. Much appreciated.