Mumbai Attacks and their impact

[William F. Owen]

Moderator's Note: I have changed the title (October 2010) to reflect the posts on the impact of the attacks. Just merged four smaller threads into this (February 2013), but have left alone a thread on Social Media (Twitter) and the Mumbai attacks (ends)


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/7751360.stm

Probably worthy of our collective attentions

[Bill Moore]

The dust hasn't settled and it is hard to assess anything until the media gets past their sensationalism phase, but it may be helpful to put the attack in perspective.

http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/index.html

From a 2007 Assessment


2,765 people died in terrorism-related violence in India during year 2006. A review of the data indicates that nearly 41 per cent of all such fatalities occurred in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) alone as a result of the Pakistan-backed separatist proxy war in that State. 27 per cent resulted from Left Wing Extremism (Maoism/Naxalism) across parts of 14 States, prominently including Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Karnataka. 23 per cent of the total fatalities in 2006 occurred in the multiple insurgencies of India’s Northeast.

By comparison, year 2005 witnessed a total of 3,236 fatalities in terrorism-related incidents across the country. The fatality index, consequently, registered a definite decrease in year 2006.

It would be interesting to see what the numbers were in 2007 and 2008 to date, although that metric in itself means very little. India is challenged by multiple insurgencies, terrorist groups and worrisome neighbors, yet they a do a remarkable job of maintaining relative stability in a country that is ripe for ethnic conflict. I suspect there is a lot we can learn from India and how they manage these complex problems, and hopefully we'll see more posted over the coming weeks on how they managed security challenges historically.

Reference today's attacks, we have seen this type of attack before in the airports of Tel Aviv, Rome and Vienna in the 70s and 80s where the terrorists used small arms and grenades, but they were not nearly as deadly as this Mumbai attack. This was clearly a sosphisticated attack on a number of levels, and the implications of foreign involvement is what is most worrying. http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/detailed_news.asp?date1=11/27/2008#1


The terrorists reportedly came in by sea from Karachi in Pakistan. A boat laden with explosives was recovered later at night off the Gateway of India.

General Officer Commanding of Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat, said. Speaking to NDTV, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister R. R. Patil said, "There is no plan for talks with the terrorists." Claiming to have some "vital leads", he expressed confidence of a breakthrough soon. Intelligence sources said that a foreign hand is fully evident in these attacks. They have also reportedly arrested a Pakistan national from Chowpatty area in the city. Police chief A. N. Roy said, "There is no indication so far of the identity of the terrorists." He said that the terrorists were highly armed, level of weapons and training suggest that they are not locals.

Perhaps the intended objective is bigger than just India, and actually aimed at regional instability to counter the positive diplomacy between India and Pakistan, which in turn will lead to more effective operations in the FATA. First reports are generally wrong, but if the attackers did come from Pakistan, this would be an opportunity for Pakistan to show the world that it is serious about fighting terrorists]ism within its in borders by cooperating and assisting its neighbors (in this case India) in the fight against this common threat. That would be a major regional paradigm shift in favor of the counter terrorist coalition.

How probable is it that we'll this type of regional paradigm shift? Only time will tell, but this type of attack should further demonstrate to the populations that the terrorists are trying to influence how completely morally bankrupt the terrorists and their objectives are.

Again, looking past the hype, there was even a more deadly attack in Mumbai two years ago, yet Mumbai remains a striving city.

http://counterterrorismblog.org/


The incidents took place one day after the reported arrest of Lashkar -e-Toiba linked Raheel Sheikh by the Interpol in London. Raheel is one of the alleged masterminds of the conspiracy and was involved in the funding of the July 11, 2006, Mumbai serial train blasts that killed nearly 200 commuters and wounded over 500 people on that fateful day.

It is highly improbable (if not impossible) that an attack was mounted in one days time in response to this arrest. The good news is that they captured the prick.

[Jedburgh]

Wired, 26 Nov 08: Mumbai Attack Aftermath Detailed, Tweet by Tweet (http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/11/first-hand-acco.html)

First-hand accounts of the deadly Mumbai attacks are pouring in on Twitter, Flickr, and other social media......

......The local bloggers at Metblogs Mumbai (http://mumbai.metblogs.com/) have new updates every couple of minutes. So do the folks at GroundReport (http://www.groundreport.com/article_list.php?region=100&region_state=). Dozens of videos (http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Mumbai&search_sort=video_date_uploaded) have been uploaded to YouTube. But the most remarkable citizen journalism may be coming from "Vinu," who is posting a stream of harrowing post-attack pictures (http://flickr.com/photos/vinu/sets/72157610144709049/comments/) to Flickr.

[Rex Brynen]

Live IBN reports are streamed here (http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/video_streaming.php) (I wish CNN would run them directly, instead of talking over the Indian video and commentary).

[davidbfpo]

The incidents took place one day after the reported arrest of Lashkar -e-Toiba linked Raheel Sheikh by the Interpol in London. Raheel is one of the alleged masterminds of the conspiracy and was involved in the funding of the July 11, 2006, Mumbai serial train blasts that killed nearly 200 commuters and wounded over 500 people on that fateful day.

The good news is that they captured the prick.

Sorry Bill, Raheel Sheikh has not been detained in London or London Heathrow or Birmingham airport; as reported by the Indian press and websites after a comment in Mumbai by a senior police officer: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/CBI-denies-7-11-suspect-Raheel-s-arrest/390993

[Bill Moore]

David,

Thanks for the update, so we scratch the good news for the time being. Hopefully you'll have some better news in the coming days :wry: First reports are generally wrong, or at least not entirely accurate.

[Adam L]

CNN is now talking about Israeli advisors being sent to Mumbai. It's been mentioned to me over the years that the Israeli's have good relations with Indian special forces/counter terrorism units. Is this true? Can anyone give me some info on this?

Adam L

[Ken White]

Asia. A LOT of business, to include advice and indirect assistance. Same, surprisingly, applies to the ME, not with everyone but still a considerable amount.

With India, specifically, in addition to some training programs and a lot of direct sales, there are also some joint development programs. LINK (http://www.defense-update.com/newscast/0707/news/150707_mrsam.htm), LINK (http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2008/me_israel_01_07.asp).

[selil]

If you want up to the minute on the ground information/intelligence go here http://twitter.com/shloky/

Shlok is a phenomenon.

you can also go here http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23mumbai and pick up some more. The noise to info level climbs though.

[William F. Owen]

CNN is now talking about Israeli advisors being sent to Mumbai. It's been mentioned to me over the years that the Israeli's have good relations with Indian special forces/counter terrorism units. Is this true? Can anyone give me some info on this?

Adam L

It's no secret. There is extensive military co-operations between Israel and India. Has been for over 50 years. Obviously there is a very big Indian community here in Israel.

One of the attacks in Mumbai was directed directly at Jews and Israeli citizens, and Israelis were taken hostage and killed. A Rabbi is amongst the dead so, as always, Israel has to get involved.

The performance of the Indian Army and Police is currently being strongly criticised here on the TV and in the Press, and as far as I can see with good reason.

[Adam L]

It's no secret. There is extensive military co-operations between Israel and India. Has been for over 50 years. Obviously there is a very big Indian community here in Israel.


I was unaware there was a large community in Israel. Of course, the important question is, "How is the food?"



The performance of the Indian Army and Police is currently being strongly criticised here on the TV and in the Press, and as far as I can see with good reason.

Yes, it looked pretty disorganized from what I saw. Does anyone know a site that explains how all of the units (police and military) fit into their system?

Adam L

[Cavguy]

All,

Good Summary and analysis at the Long War Journal (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/11/analysis_mumbai_atta.php):


Almost two days after terrorists attacked the Indian financial hub of Mumbai, the military is still working to root out the remnants of the assault teams at two hotels and a Jewish center. More than 125 people, including six foreigners, have been killed and 327 more have been wounded. The number is expected to go up, as Indian commandos have recovered an additional 30 dead at the Taj Mahal hotel as fighting has resumed.

The Mumbai attack is unique from past terror strikes carried out by Islamic terrorists. Instead of one or more bombings at distinct sites, the Mumbai attackers struck throughout the city using military tactics. Instead of one or more bombings carried out over a short period of time, Mumbai I entering its third day of crisis.

An attack of this nature cannot be thrown together overnight. It requires planned, scouting, financing, training, and a support network to aid the fighters. Initial reports indicate the attacks originated from Pakistan, the hub of jihadi activity in South Asia. Few local terror groups have the capacity to pull of an attack such as this.

While it is early to know exactly what happened in Mumbai as the fog of war still blankets the city, multiple press reports from India allow for a general picture to be painted. An estimated 12 to 25 terrorists are believed to have entered Mumbai by sea. After landing, he attack teams initiated a battle at a police station, then fanned across the city to attack the soft underbelly of hotels, cafes, cinemas, and hospitals. Civilians were gunned down and taken hostage, while terrorists looked for people carrying foreign passports.

Preparation

While the exact size of the assault force and the support cells is still not known, police estimate about 25 gunmen were involved in the attack. The number of members of the supporting cells that provide financing, training, transportation, and other services could be two to four times this number. Operational security for such a large unit, or grouping of cells, is difficult to maintain and requires organization and discipline.

To pull off an attack of this magnitude, it requires months of training, planning, and on-site reconnaissance. Indian officials have stated that the terrorists set up "advance control rooms" at the Taj Mahal and Trident (Oberoi) hotels, and conducted a significant amount of reconnaissance prior to executing the attack. If the news about the "control rooms" is accurate, these rooms may also have served as weapons and ammunition caches for the assault teams to replenish after conducting the first half of the operation.
Mumbai-attacks-11262008.jpg

A terrorist outside the train station in Mumbai.

The planners of the Mumbai attack appear to have chosen able military-aged males. Witnesses have described the men as young and fit. Some of the gunmen appear to have been well trained; some have been credited with having good marksmanship and other military skills.

A witness who saw one of the teams land by sea adescribed the gunmen as "in their 20s, fair-skinned and tall, clad in jeans and jackets." He saw "eight young men stepping out of the raft, two at a time. They jumped into the waters, and picked up a haversack. They bent down again, and came up carrying two more haversacks, one in each hand."

An Indian official claimed the attackers used "sophisticated weapons," however this may be an overstatement. Reports indicate the gunmen used automatic rifles, hand grenades, and some machineguns, as well as several car bombs. The terrorists did not have sophisticated weapons such as anti-aircraft missiles to attack helicopters supporting Indian counterterrorism forces.

More at the link.

[kehenry1]

First of all, the attackers went right to the local police station and attacked it. Clearly meant to reduce command and control of the counter. Whether by luck or by design, they were able to take out the top three terror cops at that station.

According to some sources, while there are many anti-terror groups within the security forces, they are not typically tasked together with any type of linear, interactive or interchangable leadership. Basically, city, province, state then military. Obviously, the city police are meant to be the first responders. With the local police assaulted and thrown off stride, their response time and efforts would be definitely thrown off and coordination with other units or up the line would be hindered. With the top cop and his two deputies gone, there would be a question of who takes over command as well, well before any other response teams could arrive and then as they appeared.

One has only to look at local law enforcement politics to understand that there would be a lot of people running around thinking they were now in charge and should issue orders. a bunch of which would be contradictory and possibly non-sensical. So, while the headquarters is in chaos and the LEO on the beat are out with limited instruction or communication, the terrorists get a nice little window of time to go about their business with little interdiction.

This is one factor that has me very sure that this was not a local group nor a "new group" accept to say a group claiming some other name as their "corps" name. LeT, probably, but I bet there is some higher org and experience that provided the training, facilitation and strategic planning.

[Bob's World]

Working with the Indians is delicate business for several reasons that make U.S. cooperation with them difficult:
1. They are EXTREMELY sensitive to anything that might be construed as them not being complete peers (regardless of how relatively lacking they may be in the topic at hand).
2. They demand quid pro quo reciprocation on engagement activities. 1 in India, then 1 in the U.S., repeat. While reasonable, our current authorities and funding lines don't support such a cycle.
3. They have a mind numbing bureaucracy. A request for engagement goes into a big folder. That folder then needs to physically move up and back through over 30 in/out boxes from initiation to approval.
4. Huge muslim populace, largest Shia populace outside of Iran, and a majority Hindu populace and caste system. Two guesses where muslims shake out. There is friction.
5. Indo-Gangetic Plain. From the "Gates of Islam" at the mouth of the Indus river in Pakistan (formerly India) to the mouth of the Ganges river in Bangladesh (formerly Pakistan, formerly India) is one broad, flat plain that spans the sub-continent and is home to over 450 M Muslims with a continental divide so low as to be imperceptable to the human eye. Talk about an "arc of instability."

We are really babes in the woods when it comes to understanding and effective engaging in this region. If the Isrealies have a spcecial bond/relationship that is good...but it brings it's own special challenges as well. A perception of US sponsored, Jewish CT activity is likely to have negative consequences that far exceed any immediate effect.

[Rex Brynen]

Whether by luck or by design, they were able to take out the top three terror cops at that station.

It would appear to have been luck:


Police say as the suspects moved from Chatrapati Shivaji Terminus (CST, formerly Victoria Terminus) train station, they entered a lane which has access to important buildings like the Times of India office, Cama hospital and a school. They came onto the main road and went towards a multiplex cinema.
Mr Karkare was shot at near Cama hospital and soon after the other two officers were also shot near the multiplex.

BBC, 12:39 GMT, Saturday, 29 November 2008, Mumbai police mourn their dead (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7756369.stm)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/170301


To get a sense of the shift, consider the BJP's candidate for prime minister this time around. Lal Krishna Advani is an aging rabble-rouser who in the mid-1990s helped gather a huge Hindu mob that tore down the 16th-century Babri Mosque, leading to riots that killed more than 2,000 people (Advani was later cleared of criminal charges). He is far more radical than his predecessor, Atal Behari Vajpayee, who served as prime minister from 1998 to 2004. And Advani's heir apparent is Gujarat's chief minister, Narendra Modi—who has been denied entry to the United States for his alleged role in the 2002 riots in Gujarat that killed more than 1,000. Not long after the riots, Modi warned a crowd that Muslims were trying to erode India's Hindu majority by having many children. "We have to teach a lesson to those who are increasing the population at an alarming rate," he said.


You might assume that such ties, unless repudiated, would hurt the RSS's popularity and the BJP's electoral chances in India, which is the world's largest democracy and a secular one at that. Unfortunately, that's not how things have transpired in the past. In fact, some of the BJP's prior electoral victories followed bouts of incendiary anti-Muslim hatred and actual violence. Vajpayee was first elected prime minister following the Babri Mosque riots, for example, and the mayhem in Gujarat in 2002 helped Modi win a thumping victory in that state, even though—or because—he was blamed for delaying police action to protect Muslims. Now, by casting the government's terror investigation as an anti-Hindu conspiracy, the BJP hopes to repeat this formula today and unite the faithful. "The various wings of the [RSS]—and it's a vast organization—will rally together," says Rangarajan.

India's reaction to these attacks will very much shape their future.

[Entropy]

I guess it's over now, the last attacker is dead. 10 guys with guns, grenades and explosives killed 195 and wounded several hundred. It looks like the attackers were Pakistani and the one that was captured said the goal was to create an "Indian 9/11."

[davidbfpo]

Yes, early days and much confusion, spin, prejudice and some insight. I was impressed with these two articles by Stephen Tankel, from Kings College London War Studies: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/27/mumbai-terror-attacks-india4 and http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/ first article there now.

Not heard of author before, so here is the first potted bio found: http://icsr.info/about/people/Stephen_Tankel

davidbfpo

[max161]

Here is some interesting analysis http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/11/29/08/mumbai-attacks-al-qaeda-methods-ideology

Maria A. Ressa is the author of Seeds of Terror: An Eyewitness Account of Al-Qaeda’s Newest Center of Operations in Southeast Asia. She is senior vice president for news and current affairs of ABS-CBN and managing director of ANC (ABS-CBN News Channel). She was CNN’s correspondent for nearly two decades.

[JHR]

Steve Coll's comments were similar to Mr. Tankel's. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/

JHR

[Bill Moore]

We are really babes in the woods when it comes to understanding and effective engaging in this region. If the Isrealies have a spcecial bond/relationship that is good...but it brings it's own special challenges as well. A perception of US sponsored, Jewish CT activity is likely to have negative consequences that far exceed any immediate effect.

Great comments, we too often illustrate our lack of understanding by our desire to immediately run to the sound of gun fire and get involved so we can make things better. Historically our engagement in many countries has often failed to improve the situation for a number of reasons. A couple of them are posted above.

Partners need our support and cooperation, just as we need theirs. If they think they need our assistance they will ask for it. If we think they need our assistance, but they don't want it, then we continue to diplomatically pursue areas where we they may accept our assistance. The bull in the china shop approach hasn't worked well in the past.

[tpjkevin]

A Singaporean perspective on this issue.


Beware the fallout from Mumbai outrage

Editorial Desk
The Straits Times
Publication Date: 29-11-2008

The terror attacks in Mumbai have been strongly condemned by outraged people everywhere. The ruthless assailants sprayed bullets indiscriminately at people in the streets and trapped and wounded or killed others, including foreigners, in upscale hotels. The dead included a young Singapore lawyer, the first Singaporean victim of terrorism since Konfrontasi. Our hearts go out to her family. As Acting Prime Minister S. Jayakumar put it: 'This tragic event underscores the imperative for all of us to be constantly vigilant and the need for the international community to band together to combat this threat.' We are all in this together.

Who were the attackers? What was their objective? Some experts think Indian Muslim malcontents were involved. Identification of the perpetrators and authentication of their motives will not be easy. The scale of the assaults and the precision with which they were coordinated and executed suggest groups beyond India could have been involved. Kashmiri militants could have had a hand in this, but at least one of their groups, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, has denied responsibility........

http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?id=2903&sec=3


This is the second incident that Singaporeans have lost their lives to terrorism, and the fourth involving the taking of Singaporean hostages.

[SWJED]

I've placed numerous links to news and commentary concerning the Mumbai attack on the SWJ Daily Roundup

30 November Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/11/30-november-swj-roundup/)

29 November Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/11/29-november-swj-roundup/)

28 November Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/11/28-november-swj-roundup/)

27 November Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/11/27-november-swj-roundup/)

[bismark17]

From what I have read the terrorists level of confidence and individual skill with their weapons was very good. They were obviously highly trained. They also must have have done a good leaders' recon and knew the AO they were going to hit. All of their targets had significance.

I realize any innocent death is bad but my concern is if they are going to invest as much as they did in an op like this with this little return how many of them are out there in waiting to do something bigger in the bigger scheme of things? It's rather chilling. I can think of a lot other things men of this calibre could do that would produce far more casualties or impact.

Thanks for the all the links.

[Bill Moore]

With more information available now (still with loads of spectulation), I think we have enough to at least consider the implications of this type of attack on our own homeland security readiness. While there is some justification to criticize India for some its readiness shortfalls, especially the severe equipment shortfalls of its police and commando forces (no night vision devices, etc.), how ready are we (the U.S., Europe, other Asian nations) to respond to similiar attacks?

Obviously there is no pat answer as there are several variables that can impact readiness on any given day, and obviously some cities such as New York City is probably much more prepared for this type of attack than say a mid sized town elsewhere in the U.S., but it is still a question we should grapple with.

Assuming the press reports are accurate, and even if they're not, the type of operation that they outlined could easily be replicated anywhere in the world.

You have a mothership (any cargo ship), a handful of dedicated Jihadist lunatics who are very well trained and armed, a few rubber raiding crafts, and a limited support base in the target city to conduct your target reconnaissance and even guide you to your target(s) if required. There are large Muslim populations around the globe from Tokyo to London to Miami etc., and out of that population base it only takes a couple of converts to radical Islam to provide the required support.

Here's the scenario, you're the police chief, it's your town, it's 2230hrs, surprise, you now have 10-15 Jihadists running around executing a well rehearsed plan, now respond. Respond with what? Local police? Are they grossly overweight (indicates they are not dedicated) and poorly trained? The national guard? Normally not trained for this type of response, and it would take hours to mobilize them. Federal forces? How long would it take for a credable response?

You can excuse a government for reacting to a bomb attack and cleaning up the mess, then pursuing the culprits, but it is another issue all together when you're under attack in your home town, and the government can't mount an effective counter attack in a timely manner. The perception of failure jumps out, regardless of how unreasonable it may be to expect every city/town to have a capable response (think about the effect of school shootings, a much smaller scale problem). The Los Angeles police department is relatively well trained and equipped, and I think most of us remember the challenges they had responding to two bank robbers armed with high powered rifles and effective body armor. My point is that police forces, just like military forces, are trained and equipped (barely) for probable threats. The Mumbai attacks were not a probable attack until last week.

See the next post for India's initial lessons learned, and what they should mean to us.

[Bill Moore]

Police: Pakistani group behind Mumbai attacks

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27940231/


The gunman was one of 10 who paralyzed the city in an attack that killed at least 174 people and revealed the weakness of India's security apparatus. India's top law enforcement official resigned, bowing to growing criticism that the attackers appeared better trained, better coordinated and better armed than police.


As more details of the response to the attack emerged, a picture formed of woefully unprepared security forces.


"The way Mumbai police handled the situation, they were not combat ready," said Jimmy Katrak, a security consultant. "You don't need the Indian army to neutralize eight to nine people."


With no SWAT team in this city of 18 million, authorities called in the only unit in the country trained to deal with such crises. But the National Security Guards, which largely devotes its resources to protecting top officials, is based outside of New Delhi and it took the commandos nearly 10 hours to reach the scene.


Even the commandos lacked the proper equipment, including night vision goggles and thermal sensors that would have allowed them to locate the hostages and gunmen inside the buildings, Sahni said.


Singh promised to expand the commando force and set up new bases for it around the country. He called a rare meeting of leaders from the country's main political parties, hours after the resignation of Home Minister Shivraj Patil.


Sahni called for an overhaul of the nation's police force — the first line of defense against a future attack — providing better weapons, better equipment and real training.

The comments on the Commando's clearing tactics by their Israeli founder were brutal, but from what I could see correct. The Commando Commander said we executed the attack the way we like to, which unfortunately meant slow and ineffective.

India has a lot of work in front of it, and we should be willing to help to India with any assistance they may request, but we should also be looking at our own backyard and making the necessary adjustments to address similiar threats.

[J Wolfsberger]

You have a mothership (any cargo ship), a handful of dedicated Jihadist lunatics who are very well trained and armed, a few rubber raiding crafts, and a limited support base in the target city to conduct your target reconnaissance and even guide you to your target(s) if required. There are large Muslim populations around the globe from Tokyo to London to Miami etc., and out of that population base it only takes a couple of converts to radical Islam to provide the required support.

Or a terrorist group in the US obtains weapons from a drug cartel or organized gang. Their surveillance activities would be indistinguishable from daily, normal commercial activity.


Here's the scenario, you're the police chief, it's your town, it's 2230hrs, surprise, you now have 10-15 Jihadists running around executing a well rehearsed plan, now respond. Respond with what? Local police? Are they grossly overweight (indicates they are not dedicated) and poorly trained? The national guard? Normally not trained for this type of response, and it would take hours to mobilize them. Federal forces? How long would it take for a credable response?
...
The Los Angeles police department is relatively well trained and equipped, and I think most of us remember the challenges they had responding to two bank robbers armed with high powered rifles and effective body armor. My point is that police forces, just like military forces, are trained and equipped (barely) for probable threats. The Mumbai attacks were not a probable attack until last week.


The common misconception is that the police are there to protect you. In fact, most of their training is oriented toward cleaning up the mess afterward. I expect that's just as true in India as here in the US. The ordinary police in Mumbai who went up against the terrorists, matching pistols against grenades and assault weapons, deserve the highest regard for valor. The same would happen here.

In fact, I suspect it would be worse. The Indian government had the troops and processes in place (however efficient or not) to fairly quickly employ appropriately trained personnel in response.

We don't.

[Bob's World]

I think we should pull our analysis back to the operational/strategic level. Sure it is fun to discuss the tactics employed, but what really matters is how this event will shape the larger dynamics of the region.

1. India has tremendous friction with it's own Muslim popuace (some 150M, who are largely left out of the recent economic rise of the Nation. 13% of the total populace, they only represent 3% of government positions as an example).

2. With the pressure of the current global economic crisis, will India seek to shift the focus from their own faults and failures by attempting to blame Pakistan for this attack? (Ok, this is already happening)

3. With the U.S. already in a tenuous position in Pakistan as we attempt to sort out an effective scheme of engagement there that allows us to get a handle on a Pashtun problem that is slipping away, while at the same time not alienating the new government there; how do we play an escalation of animosity between Pakistan and India? (Particularly when both of those Governments have terrible policies in place that create tremendous frictions within their own populaces; both have Nukes; and both are looking for external parties to blame as the problems escalate; and they have in no way resolved the issues that keep these neighbors in a state of near-war)

4. Unlike the U.S., when we had an external terror attack on 9/11; we did not possess a large, disenfrancised local populace that was sympathetic to the causes of the attackers, India does. We could absorb a strategic disaster like launching a completely unrelated invasion of a traditional enemy's territory in the name of retaliation and national security. What happens internal to India if they try a similar gambit? What credibility do we have to talk them down from such a policy given our own recent actions?

Major terrorist attacks happen in India all the time. This one has succeeded in gaining the type of media attention and visibility that all such attackers seek as their primary goal for waging the attack in the first place. The attack itself has little relevance. What matters is how this is played from here.

[Ron Humphrey]

As to the "who will blame who" in efforts to sidetrack popular frustrations.
Can't see any way this won't happen considering historic practices which apparently noone likes to learn from(didn't that end up being a big part of what brought about WWI?); how about something different for a change.

Perhaps everyone could actually blame the idiots who keep pulling off these attacks. Extremists!

Maybe thats too much to ask for:confused:

[Ken White]

I agree with most of your postulations but question this one:
...4. We could absorb a strategic disaster like launching a completely unrelated invasion of a traditional enemy's territory in the name of retaliation and national security. What happens internal to India if they try a similar gambit? What credibility do we have to talk them down from such a policy given our own recent actions?Three points.

A 'stategic disaster' is in the eye of the beholder -- I haven't seen one since the Brothers Kennedy decided to boost the US economy by sending me to Laos a long time ago.

Not at all a completely unrelated invasion, rather a very poorly publicly justified effort. It was a response to a large number of ME provocations, attacks and probes against US interests worldwide from 1979-2001 and it was sorely needed and long overdue; something needed to be done and do recall that Afghanistan is not in the ME. It may have been poorly planned (and whose fault is that?) and executed (same question?) but something was needed. While most of the west did not and does not understand that, the ME (and most of Asia) understood it for what it was; you will have noted that European hearth objections were heartfelt and different from the pro-forma mumbles out of the ME and Asia. The major problem with the action in Iraq as a totality and the rest of the world was an incredibly poor job of stating the rationale. The major problem with total effectiveness of the overdue response to probes from the ME was in the execution. That happens...

Back to the actual thread and point at hand. To answer your question quoted, no one including the Indians knows what would happen internally; and our credibility in the world has not been great since I started paying attention in 1947 or so. It has fluctuated over the years but it has never been adequate to jawbone other nations into doing much they they didn't want to do (unless we bribed them, that works -- sometimes). Been that way for years and I see no change in that.

Nor am I at all certain why we should be excessively concerned with 'talking them down' from a policy they are probably not going to adopt. In the unlikely event they adopt such a policy, it will be (as is too often true here) more a result of domestic politics than anything else -- and that milieu is a little too opaque for most of us to sort -- and I'm pretty sure that pressure would trump anything we tried.

[davidbfpo]

Yet to absorb the latest contributions. There are now coments on how any other city would have reacted and here is an ex-SAS CO's comments: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3535668/Britain-unprepared-for-Mumbai-style-attack-former-head-of-SAS-says.html

davidbfpo

[Icebreaker]

Attached is a link to a pretty good "To Do" List for changes in India to help them deal with future Mumbai-style attacks:

http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/dec/01mumterror-26-things-to-do.htm

As a civilian I think they make good sense, but I would like to get other's prespective on two things:

1. What do others think of the above "To Do" List?

and

2. How can ten (10) men, even armed with automatic weapons and grenades, hold off hundreds of commandos and police officers for sixty (60) hours?

[Ken White]

...2. How can ten (10) men, even armed with automatic weapons and grenades, hold off hundreds of commandos and police officers for sixty (60) hours? but provide an answer to this. Easily.

What room or rooms in what buildings? Intelligence and / or technology available to the commandos and police to determine said locations? Their familiarity with each others work processes and ability to cooperate? Hostages involved? More importantly, respective levels of training. Most importantly level of dedication of the ten and their willingness to die to complete their mission.

Not at all difficult to do. Sixty hours is really pretty good time. Fighting in cities is never easy...

This LINK (http://images.google.com/images?q=Taj%20Mahal%20Hotel%20Mumbai&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&sa=N&tab=wi) was just one of the buildings involved, it alone could easily take over a day to clear after the assault team arrived (12 hours away) and got prepped (another 4-6 hours minimum).

[bismark17]

I can only speak to local oriented Law Enforcement in the U.S. but I don't think anyone is ready for something like this other than possibly Israel but their society tolerates a level of security that wouldn't work here. At least until we have something along these lines.

We are all about containment. For the most part we only carry sidearms and thin body armour. Our training is all about containing a situation to put the subject into a fixed place to allow the SWAT team to begin their operation. We don't really train for scenarios like this and it's assumed that our SWAT teams would be the ones having to run and gun with this kind of adversary. Obviously, if it does happen it will be the front line patrol officers having to do it. Active shooters are a major threat both from the operational and tactical perspective. Look at what happened with the former Ranger tabbed suspects that took on the FBI in that infamous shoot out in Miami.

I am fortunate to work for a Department that has an outstanding Firearms training unit that does look at current events and changes their training based upon them. We do train for multiple threats and active shooters trying to roll your flanks and such. But, it's still tough to be confident about dealing with something along these lines.

We are very risk adverse due to the amount of litigitation that is part of our day to day operations. This has changed to some extent due to our school or Mall shooter scenarios but it's an extreme command and control issue to deal with multiple entry teams running around in a fixed location. There is going to be extreme chaos and it's hard for me to imagine anyone could do much better under those circumstances. In this particular case the Police were directly targeted so their command and control was screwed from the get go.

On a positve level, I think we are better prepared than we were prior to the Hollywood shootout where the suspects were heavily armored and carried long guns. It spurred Departments across the nation to develop patrol rifle programs and improve active shooter training which are good things.

[bourbon]

Reports coming in are mentioning the role of Dawood Ibrahim in the attacks. Ibrahim is the head of D-Company, which is the leading group in the Mumbai underworld. He has strong connections to ISI, and was the facilitator of the 1993 attacks in Mumbai. Reportedly, D-Company controls Sasool dock where the attackers came ashore. One of the captured attackers has reportedly said in interrogation that Ibrahim owned the ship the attackers took from Karachi, and D-Company provided logistical support in the city.



This was not global jihad. Its roots are far closer to home: These attacks were born of local and regional hostilities, and it seems likely a part was played by a Mumbai crime boss (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/01/comment-and-debate-misha-glenny), by Misha Glenny. guardian.co.uk, December 1 2008.

Captured Mumbai attacker implicates Pakistani military, intel (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/11/captured_mumbai_atta.php), By Bill Roggio. The Long War Journal, November 30, 2008.

Captured Mumbai terrorist reveals plot to slaughter 5000 (http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24730966-663,00.html). Herald Sun, December 01, 2008.

[carl]

I think American police department capabilities may be underestimated. In the area I worked in, in critical situations, we could call on one large and one small city pd, numerous sheriff's offices, the BLM cops, several tribal police departments, the wildlife guys, the local FBI office, the state police and if things really got bad, the state pen special guys. There were always a number of special trained officers on normal patrol and (I have been gone a few years) I would assume that now there are a number of officers who have been to Iraq and Afghanistan. Everybody had pistols and shotguns and all the state police had AR-15's. Given more time, swat teams from all over the state would be there too.

There would be tremendous confusion and hell to pay in the first few hours but there is more capability there than people may think. Those Mexican drug assassins in Arizona certainly didn't have things all their own way.

[Cavguy]

Made me chuckle from Abu Muqawama (http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/2008/12/heads-are-rolling.html) -


Look, if just 10 dudes rolled into my hometown and started shooting people, they would have been killed within the hour. I'm not kidding. (People still try to take their guns aboard planes in my hometown.) India's police has been caught out by these 10 gunmen as badly as U.S. intelligence services (and airport security) were caught out by the 9/11 hi-jackers. In both cases, there was no reason so many people were killed by so few. Unlike 9/11, though, heads are rolling in India. In case anyone is wondering,

I imagine the same in Slapout, AL. :D

[Uboat509]

I am still much more concerned about a Beslan type situation than something like Mumbai. I just don't think that a similar attack would have near the success in the US. Law Enforcement capabilities aside, there are an awful lot of people like me out there bitterly clinging to our guns. A Beslan type attack, say on a large inner city school, or schools on the other hand could be devastating, particularly if the attackers managed to start a rumor that there were other groups still out there ready to attack other schools. It is one thing to say that I will not let the terrorists scare me. I will live my life and go to work and do what I need to do regardless of the threat. It is quite another thing to send your babies into that. How many businesses would have troubles with production because terrified parents stayed home with their kids? What kind of effect would that many working parents staying home have on the economy?

SFC W

[slapout9]

I imagine the same in Slapout, AL. :D


You got that right....like 36-0;) My friend "Fat Tony" would make them an offer they couldn't refuse and they would never forget:wry:

The 1st US Redneck Special Forces Unit. Fat Tony is in the Red Shirt. Oh Yea there is some bad words in here but they go by so fast you can't hardly her them.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2597LTPgnc&feature=related

[Ken White]

from Texas...

LINK (http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.strangedangers.com/images/content/110683.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.strangedangers.com/content/item/110683.html&usg=__2fY0eLxE-tDiorzpyRLs3z7bQxE=&h=480&w=640&sz=97&hl=en&start=1&um=1&tbnid=wVSJ2hq10gmBMM:&tbnh=103&tbnw=137&prev=/images%3Fq%3DYou%2Bloot%2Bwe%2Bshoot%26um%3D1%26hl %3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN).

[carl]

I just don't think that a similar attack would have near the success in the US. Law Enforcement capabilities aside, there are an awful lot of people like me out there bitterly clinging to our guns.
SFC W

Agreed. I found people were extremely eager to help if an officer was in a fight or somebody went missing. If we had passed the word we needed armed volunteers...the numbers would have been large.

[Adam L]

Obviously there is no pat answer as there are several variables that can impact readiness on any given day, and obviously some cities such as New York City is probably much more prepared for this type of attack than say a mid sized town elsewhere in the U.S., but it is still a question we should grapple with.


I have really been surprised by just how much firepower the NYPD have. It seems as though every time I go down to the city they have new and more powerful weapons. There are a lot of officers carrying assault rifles these days. Also, it looks as though a lot of patrolmen are wearing heavier body armor.

Adam L

[bismark17]

I am concerned about the Beslan style issue myself or hit and run attacks on malls. That would be really great for the economy at this point. Or look at what those 2 weirdos, the father and son sniper team, did on the East Coast. The IRA already started that a long time ago with urban sniping from vehicles. Coming from both an Infantry and Police background it's amazing to participate or watch force on force situations with multiple search teams in active shooter scenarios. The command and control is brutal. Without getting too specific the usual history of these events is that the active shooter doesn't want to engage with us but will usually shoot themselves once they realize we are on scene.

Terrorists are not going to do that but will want to engage. These latest guys were very well trained and aggressive. The latest account I read claimed that they took turns to change their mags so that one of them could provide support. High speed. Think of how this went and what they could have done better because they are....





I am still much more concerned about a Beslan type situation than something like Mumbai. I just don't think that a similar attack would have near the success in the US. Law Enforcement capabilities aside, there are an awful lot of people like me out there bitterly clinging to our guns. A Beslan type attack, say on a large inner city school, or schools on the other hand could be devastating, particularly if the attackers managed to start a rumor that there were other groups still out there ready to attack other schools. It is one thing to say that I will not let the terrorists scare me. I will live my life and go to work and do what I need to do regardless of the threat. It is quite another thing to send your babies into that. How many businesses would have troubles with production because terrified parents stayed home with their kids? What kind of effect would that many working parents staying home have on the economy?

SFC W

[Entropy]

The problem with a Beslan operation and why I think it's unlikely is that it won't net the instigator good press with those they are attempting to influence. Symbolism is often more important for attackers than body counts (especially so for sophisticated attackers) and in Mumbai the decision on what to target was obviously based on symbolic value rather than maximizing a death toll. The symbolism associated with attacking a school and murdering children will not play well even among many Jihadists, so I think a sophisticated crew that can plan and carry out this kind of operation are unlikely to target schools - especially after Beslan, which didn't work out too well for the Chechens.

[slapout9]

I worry more about the Mexican/US border. An attack of that nature is a real possibility at one of the border towns.

[Icebreaker]

I worry more about the Mexican/US border. An attack of that nature is a real possibility at one of the border towns.

It has happened before in 1916 at Columbus, New Mexico (see link to wikipedia article):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Villa_Expedition

General Pershing command of the expedition helped to launch him on the path to being the Commanding Officer of the American Expeditionary Force (AEF) in World War I.

[120mm]

I have really been surprised by just how much firepower the NYPD have. It seems as though every time I go down to the city they have new and more powerful weapons. There are a lot of officers carrying assault rifles these days. Also, it looks as though a lot of patrolmen are wearing heavier body armor.

Adam L

The prevalence of so-called and misnamed "assault rifles" in use by police is primarily because they're more accurate, and safer than pistols. High speed, low weight bullets tend not to overpenetrate as much as low speed, high weight bullets such as those fired by pistols.

Plus, the AR15 platform is handy, easily maintained, is easy to train on, and prior military experience police officers are familiar with the system.

It's not about the way the guns look, it's the functionality that really matters. If I had my druthers, all police officers would start out on the AR15 as their primary.

[Adam L]

The prevalence of so-called and misnamed "assault rifles" in use by police is primarily because they're more accurate, and safer than pistols. High speed, low weight bullets tend not to overpenetrate as much as low speed, high weight bullets such as those fired by pistols.

Plus, the AR15 platform is handy, easily maintained, is easy to train on, and prior military experience police officers are familiar with the system.

It's not about the way the guns look, it's the functionality that really matters. If I had my druthers, all police officers would start out on the AR15 as their primary.

I agree with you 100%. What I was commenting on was the amount of officers with select-fire rifles. This is mainly at high risk areas, but it's something I've noticed. I've also noticed that the cops make u-turns with their emergency command centers (big modified busses) on public streets at astonishing velocities (a civilian would lose his license) and in extreme close quarters (3-6 inches from car bumpers.)

Adam L

[slapout9]

I've also noticed that the cops make u-turns with their emergency command centers (big modified busses) on public streets at astonishing velocities (a civilian would lose his license) and in extreme close quarters (3-6 inches from car bumpers.)

Adam L

It's called SPS...Secret Police Stuff.:D

[Bill Moore]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28221884/


MUMBAI, India - When the attackers arrived on the shores of Mumbai last month, they had studied satellite images of the city, were carrying handheld GPS sets and were communicating with their handlers via the Internet and satellite phone.

Many of the Indian police they encountered did not even have walkie-talkies.

The Mumbai gunmen not only overwhelmed security forces with their weaponry and willingness to die, but also with their sophisticated use of technology, security experts said.

This is an overly simplistic conclusion, the attackers were able to overwhelm the police because they conducted a "surprise" attack, and quickly exploited the inherent confusion. They could have done this without the use of cell phone to some degree. Obviously the Indian police were not properly equipped, armed, nor trained, which reflects poorly on the government, but even if they were the first couple of hours of the attack would have still been chaos.

[Ron Humphrey]

Columbine, The Snipers, Recent School and Church shootings all very simplistic compared to the Mumbai tactical operation. One definately hopes quite a bit has been done in our LE communities to recognize and adapt to the possibilities of that sort of thing here.

[Rex Brynen]

Pakistan moves troops toward Indian border (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081226.wpakistanindia1226/BNStory/Front)

SEBASTIAN ABBOT
Associated Press
Globe and Mail, December 26, 2008 at 11:20 AM EST


ISLAMABAD — Pakistan began moving thousands of troops to the Indian border Friday, intelligence officials said, sharply raising tensions triggered by the Mumbai terror attacks.

India has blamed Pakistani-based militants for last month's siege on its financial capital, which killed 164 people and has provoked an increasingly bitter war of words between nuclear-armed neighbours that have fought three wars in 60 years.

The troops headed to the Indian border were being diverted away from tribal areas near Afghanistan, officials said, and the move was expected to frustrate the United States, which has been pushing Pakistan to step up its fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban militants near the Afghan border.

Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to the towns of Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said all troop leave had been cancelled.

[Bill Moore]

There were other scattered tidbits on various websites indicating that this situation is rapidly going from bad to worse. Pakistan allegedly arrested an Indian in the past couple of days who was tied to a terrorist attack in Pakistan. S. Asia is not the land of cooler heads. Unfortunately, it appears that the terrorists are about to achieve their strategic objective of diverting troops from the FATA to the Indian border, and they may get a bonus on top of that.

[Surferbeetle]

From todays Pakistan Daily Times (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\12\26\story_26-12-2008_pg1_2)


Pakistan troops move to Indian borders

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan troops were deployed on Thursday to protect vital points along the Line of Control in Kashmir and the international border with India, defence sources told Daily Times. Reports in Indian media said Pakistan moved its 10th Brigade to Lahore and ordered the 3rd Armoured Brigade to march towards Jhelum, following a heavy concentration of Indian troops on the borders. Pakistan’s 10th and 11th divisions have been put on high alert, Indian media said, and troops had been stationed in Rajouri and Poonch sectors of Kashmir. Sources in the Defence Department declined to give details of any fresh movement but did not deny reports that Pakistan was moving certain brigades towards Lahore. Indian TV channels also reported that Pakistan Air Force continued its state of high alert and started aerial surveillance of the Chashma power plant and other sensitive sites on Thursday amid fears of a ‘surgical strike’ by India. sajjad malik

From todays Spiegel (http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,598425,00.html)


Pakistan übt sich in Drohgebärden und lässt Truppen an der Grenze zu Indien aufmarschieren. Die Regierung in Delhi wiederum bittet China und Saudi-Arabien um Vermittlung. Nun versuchen die USA, im Konflikt zwischen den Atommächten zu vermitteln.

My translation...


Pakistan is practicing threatening gestures and letting troops march to the border with India. The Government in Dehli is again asking China and Saudi-Arabia about mediation. The USA is now trying to mediate the conflict between the atomic powers as well.

And a KUNA (http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1962907&Language=en) report as a third source...



ISLAMABAD, Dec 26 (KUNA) -- Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi Friday said that China and Iran are perturbed over the current Pak-India tension and would play their role to defuse it.
The ongoing tension between the two neighboring countries would benefit only the terrorists who are hell-bent upon sabotaging the normalization process, he said while talking to news reporters in eastern Multan city.
He said he received telephone calls from his Chinese and Iranian counterparts today (Friday) and they expressed their deep concern over the Indo-Pak tension.
"Both the countries are affected if Pakistan is affected as they are our best friends", he said, adding that the Chinese FM would visit India soon to play his mediatory role to ease the tension.
Pakistan is a peace-loving country and does not want tension with India, said the Foreign Minister. He said political stability in the region is in the interest of all. (pick up previous).

[Bill Moore]

Some articles to expand awareness of the growing tension. Note the spin factor in most of the articles, and that they frequently quote unnamed sources, none the less those who want to throw gasoline on the flames are crawling out of the wood work.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=19147


PESHAWAR: Baitullah Mahsud, central head of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Monday announced full support to the army against archrival India if it makes any aggression against the country.

He said the time had come to wage a real jihad they had been waiting for. “We know very well that the visible and invisible enemies of the country have been planning to weaken this lone Islamic nuclear power. But the “mujahideen” will foil all such nefarious designs of our enemies,” said the top militant commander.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/_Pak_had_definite_links_with_LeT_Report/articleshow/3880992.cms


"It's (LeT) a monster we created and now we can't get it back in the bottle," the official told the daily commenting on ISI's links with Lashkar.

The ISI had forged ties with jihadist groups throughout the 1980s when the CIA used it to support the Mujahidin against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan and when it saw an opportunity in 1989 to weaken India by creating trouble in Jammu and Kashmir the militants of the outfit were infiltrated into India, the newspaper reported.

General Asad Durrani, ISI chief from 1990-92, denied supporting LeT in his tenure, but admitted that Pakistan had an interest in supporting such groups.

"Given Kashmir's history, we can't be expected to remain uninterested,"

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=NLetter&id=19e61cfc-7053-4a7e-8e51-01b516f4b83c&&Headline='Pakistan+arrests+Indian+spy+for+Lahore+b last'


Intelligence agencies late on Wednesday arrested "an Indian secret agent and two others who were allegedly involved" in a bomb blast in Lahore on Wednesday morning, a media report said.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20081226/ACQRTT200812260211RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0029.htm&&mypage=newsheadlines&title=Taliban%20Group%20Nails%20Pakistan's%20Lie


Efforts by the Pakistani government to implicate India in the car-bomb blast in Lahore on December 24 backfired when a little-known Taliban group claimed responsibility, for which four men whom Pakistan claimed to be "Indians" were arrested, media reports said.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-pakistan-crackdown_barkerdec26,0,5582486.story


For alleged supporter of terror in Pakistan, it's business as usual
Despite officials' vow to crack down after Mumbai, Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa still operates unfettered

But militant Lashkar leaders arrested separately have not yet appeared in court. And the fact that the Muridke headquarters is still open highlights how ambivalent the government is about targeting Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which is highly popular because of its relief work.

Besides relief camps, Jamaat runs 160 schools, 50 Islamic boarding schools, 153 clinics and eight hospitals. If the government clamps down too hard, it risks a backlash. Already, there have been anti-government and pro-Jamaat protests, including by a group of Hindu women in Sindh province.

Interesting description, it is beginning to sound like the Hezbollah model.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/dec/25/lashkar-e-taiba-draws-well-educated-youths/

Lashkar-e-Taiba draws well-educated youths


LAHORE, Pakistan | The profile of those joining the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba is changing to include more young, educated men, some of whom even hold advanced degrees.

"The big change is that until a few years back most of the militants were hailing from the [Afghan] frontier, but now the scenario has changed and young men from all over Pakistan are joining," said Brig. Gen. Mahmood Shah, who served the Pakistani army in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas on the border with Afghanistan.

Brendan O´Duffy, a researcher from the University of London who has studied militant organizations in Britain, said he has found members are "mostly of working class origins but a large minority achieved relatively a high education, tending towards engineering and science degrees, including medicine in the case of the failed [June 2007] London and Glasgow attacks."

Kashif Alam, senior superintendent of police in the northwest city of Peshawar, said the profile of the average militant in Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, has changed but that the number of educated Pakistanis was actually decreasing.

"We´re seeing an increase in the number of criminals who are working for these militant organizations," he said. "More and more of their operations are being carried out by criminals. Some of the people we have captured were found with thousands of rupees in their pockets."

This report is a gem, it is actually balanced, it presents two sides to the story and doesn't lead the reader to a conclusion.

[davidbfpo]

Given that snow lies seven feet deep in the mountains of Kashmir the deployment of extra Pakistani troops into the border region is questionable; any campaigning can only start in March at the earliest. There is a thread here on the Kargil operation, which may explain more.

I don't know where the quoted 14th Division is normally garrisoned, but moving a division into snowclad mountains seems unwise - even if they are mountain warfare trained and equipped.

Yes the Pakistani Army has deployed extra troops into the FATA, I've seen nothing to suggest these are the first rate divisions normally deployed on the Indian border. The bulk of the fighting has been b formations like the Frontier Corps and second line reinforcements.

Following Zadari's responses to the Mumbai attacks, in which he (reportedly) acknowledged Pakistan's national weakness, a weakness caused by the current instability (economy, FATA fighting etc) did not endear him to the Pakistani Army. Add in the Indian air incursions and the usual assortment of 'Great Game' activity - all makes a potent mixture.

Pakistan's national security and national defence belongs to the army, not politicians. Former president Musharraf was given a departure from Islamabad airport, on a trip to Europe, as if he still was the head of state and on his return this week spoke publically on the situation (Google News for the reporting, which I'd not seen here).

I would suggest that the current reported Pakistani military movements have more to do with the Pakistani Army asserting itself - assuring the nation it remains on guard.

davidbfpo

[Jedburgh]

All links are redundant.

The Hindu - Jan 7, 2009 (http://www.hindu.com/nic/dossier.htm)

This is a scanned copy of the 69-page dossier of material stemming from the ongoing investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26-29, 2008 that was handed over by India to Pakistan on January 5, 2009:

Part 1 (http://www.hindu.com/nic/mumbaiattacksevidence-1.pdf), 3.13mb

Part 2 (http://www.hindu.com/nic/mumbaiattacksevidence-2.pdf), 4.16mb

Part 3 (http://www.hindu.com/nic/mumbaiattacksevidence-3.pdf), 1.99mb

Part 4 (http://www.hindu.com/nic/mumbaiattacksevidence-4.pdf), 5.40mb

[jkm_101_fso]

Good on them for learning from Mumbai attack:


NYPD Eyes Disrupting Cell Phones in Event of Terrorist Attack

The New York Police Department is training for new threats in the wake of the Mumbai terror attacks, Commissioner Raymond Kelly is set to tell a Senate committee Thursday.

By Judith Miller
FOXNews.com
Thursday, January 08, 2009

The New York Police Department is looking for ways to disrupt cell phone calls and other forms of electronic communication among terrorists in the event of another terror attack in New York, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly says.
The need to disrupt communications is one of several conclusions that the NYPD has drawn from studying the November attack in Mumbai, India, a three-day rampage by machine gun and grenade-wielding Islamic militants in which at least 165 people were killed and 304 were wounded.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/08/nypd-interrupt-cell-phone-service-event-terrorist-attack/


It's not clear from his testimony whether the NYPD has the means to disrupt electronic communications for a small group of terrorists without shutting down cell phone service to a large part of Manhattan.

Would obviously be a major roadblock, and quite unpopular. May cause more chaos, in the event a Mumbai-like scenario took place.


The NYPD has also been at odds with the Justice Department over its attempt to get the federal government to loosen up a law governing electronic surveillance. Under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, warrants must be obtained to begin electronic monitoring of terror suspects, and the requests go through a multi-layered vetting process by the FBI and the Justice Department. Kelly is asking for these agencies to expedite NYPD's requests to be able to combat fast-moving terror situations.

This will certainly be the biggest obstacle.

[selil]

Disrupting cell phone systems is a bad idea.

1) Major medical devices in first responder vehicles use the cell network for telemetry.
2) Many fire suppression and burglar systems use the cell network for telemetry and control.
3) Many home medical devices use the cell network for telemetry and warning.
4) The interdiction or wide spread disruption of the cell network could have wide and varied secondary and tertiary effects.
5) Under FCC rules it is currently absolutely illegal to do even by law enforcement (um because of all those other spectrum users).

Finally without going broad spectrum high power it is really hard to do unless you have a deep penetration into the cell network already. Nobody I know is going to admit that even if it is pretty much true with the extensions to CALEA.

[Jedburgh]

RAND, 16 Jan 09: The Lessons of Mumbai (http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP249.pdf)

This study of the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008 is part of the RAND Corporation Occasional Papers series. The research for this report was completed in December 2008 and updated as of January 9, 2009. Much of the information available for this necessarily preliminary analysis comes from reporting by the news media, which in such circumstances is
often inaccurate, and from information provided by well-placed Indian and U.S. government sources, which sometimes is incomplete. For a thorough, and hopefully accurate reconstruction of events, we must await an official inquiry or government-sponsored independent investigation. With these caveats, this paper
Identifies the operational and tactical features and technical capabilities displayed by the terrorists—the extent to which the means employed in the attack were innovations or built on previous experiences.
Evaluates the response of the Indian security forces.
Draws out the implications of the incident for India, Pakistan, and the international community.
Derives the lessons learned from the attack and the Indian response.

The goal of the study is to develop findings that may be helpful to counterterrorism authorities in India and elsewhere in preparing for or countering future terrorist attacks on urban centers.
Complete 37-page paper at the link.

[davidbfpo]

A short balanced commentary by the London-based IISS: http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Stephen Tankel has written a paper on LeT: http://icsr.info/2009/04/lashkar-e-taiba-from-911-to-mumbai/
He is a UK based analyst and writes very well on the group (Cited before No.18). On a quick read takes a broad view.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

As the trial of the lone Pakistani terrorist moves along at an Indian pace, a new BBC report: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5661920/Mumbai-What-really-happened.html . Part of a programme due to be shown tonight. Interesting comments on whether observers were present giving updates, the BBC dismiss tactical knowledge was vailable from watching TV reporting.

(Added 6th August 2009). The lone terrorist has pleaded guilty by surprise, the trial goes on IIRC.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Found when reading an Indian news website and offers a glimpse inside Indian intelligence (or lack of it): http://www.tehelka.com/story_main41.asp?filename=Ne170109coverstory.asp

No idea how reliable source is, India is not in focus.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

At the time of the Mumbai attack it was reported that Raheel Sheikh, a suspect for an earlier (2006) bombing attack was arrested in Birmingham, UK (Posts 2 & 5). A local paper has recently reported Sheikh who'd fled to the UK in 2006, to B'ham at one point, had in fact returned to India at some point and had been arrested in India a month ago.

From: http://www.sundaymercury.net/news/midlands-news/2009/09/20/birmingham-based-mumbai-terror-suspect-arrested-66331-24742628/ Note the story was picked up by news agencies, but cannot find an Indian coverage or confirmation.

davidbfpo

[gh_uk]

Also a new article in Vanity Fair

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/11/taj-hotel-siege-200911?

Focuses a lot on the human element, but brings across the chaos of the response and the poor command and control of security forces.

One wonders how police forces in the West would have handled this? David - how would the Met police in London have coped if 10 heavily armed men had gone on the rampage in Canary Wharf? I struggle to think of any instances where police firearms teams in the UK have had to face well-armed, serious opposition. How many Armed Response Units could they have mustered, deployed and coordinated? I'm sure they would have had to ask for military back-up also - though I guess it would not take eight hours to get from Hereford to London.

[davidbfpo]

GH_UK,

Your question:
One wonders how police forces in the West would have handled this? David - how would the Met police in London have coped if 10 heavily armed men had gone on the rampage in Canary Wharf? I struggle to think of any instances where police firearms teams in the UK have had to face well-armed, serious opposition. How many Armed Response Units could they have mustered, deployed and coordinated? I'm sure they would have had to ask for military back-up also - though I guess it would not take eight hours to get from Hereford to London.

I suspect that even the Met (MPS) would struggle to respond and rely on containment in the first hour. Containment of the scene would be from a distance, choosing Canary Wharf as your example would help the MPS, rather than say another symbolic target in London, say a major railway station. This first response would absorb all the 24/7 three-man response cars (last figure was eight on duty) and others available e.g. Diplomatic Protection (far larger numbers). Even they would IMHO be quickly be outgunned and run out of ammunition; H&K machine pistols being standard issue. Back-up from better armed and trained full SWAT-like teams would follow, from planned operations and training. Even with those teams deployed it would be containment.

After the MPS come other police SWAT teams, e.g. Ministry of Defence Police (usually on guard duty) and the London-based Special Forces contingent (for VIP protection etc).

Any 'well armed, serious opposition' would need the deployment of the Army, primarily the Hereford-based Special Forces and anyone else available (Windsor based light armour, seen years ago at Heathrow Airport in a terror alert).

After the July 2005 bombings one would hope co-ordination has improved at the centre (Scotland Yard) and for the on the ground tactical commander. Then add on Mumbai and horizon-scanning e.g. school massacres. Not my field this, so opinion and open sources only.

In support are these comments from another recent thread.

From Wilf's posting on another thread:
My understanding is that SWAT = Special Weapons and Tactics, was implicitly developed for the minimum use of force, so it is ROE dependant, and that was explicit in the original concept. The UK developed a "Red- Amber- Green," scale to define the use of force in the Urban environment. Red was basically LE-SWAT, and Green was "ceiling hits the floor," stuff. For sure, all the "Shoot house," stuff is basically garbage, against someone who knows you are coming.

Wilf also reminded us of the last example of a heavily armed man going on a rampage, the Hungerford incident in 1987: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungerford_massacre

I responded:
Some years ago I asked our local SWAT equivalent what happens if the "bad guys" do not stay still i.e. in a premises and go mobile. There was a pained reaction and invocations of "Trust us, we know they will". Bearing in mind the 24/7 capability was six firearms officers, so I asked will front and rear entrances be covered? "Trust us, we practice a lot". I assume "bad guys" have learnt, "stay still, you lose". Then of course along came the Mumbai attack and all the comments worldwide on whether capability matched that risk.

Hope that helps.

davidbfpo

[gh_uk]

David,

Very enlightening - thanks for the comprehensive (and swift) answer.

gh

[omarali50]

On HBO tomorrow night at 8 pm (thursday 8 pm)

http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/terrorinmumbai/
>

HBO DOCUMENTARIES WEBSITE > HBO DOCUMENTARIES CLIPS

Rated TV14: ADULT LANGUAGE, VIOLENCE, ADULT CONTENT

Running Time: 64 minutes

Genre: Documentary

In 2008, an organization determined to surpass Al Qaida as the world's most feared terrorist group sent 10 gunmen to Mumbai on a mission of murder. Their mission: to stage a spectacle so cruel and terrifying that the world could no longer ignore Lashkar-e-Taiba--the "Army of the Righteous." This documentary tells the inside story of the horrifying attack as told by the victims--and by the terrorists themselves. (TV14) ()

[JJackson]

I read Peril in Pakistan by FB Ali (http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2009/11/peril-in-pakistan-fb-ali.html#more) on Pat Lamb's blog in which he linked to some recent polling data (http://www.iri.org/newsreleases/2009-05-11-Pakistan.asp). Amongst which

On the Mumbai bombings they were first told that the Pakistan group Lashkar-e-Taiba were being fingered in the media.
Do you believe this? - 75% No, 7% Yes.
The follow up was
Who then? A third did not know 42% India, 20% US no one else exceeded 1%

If this is a true reflection of Pakistani public opinion it means that about one in every seven Pakistanis think that America sent its covert operatives to blow up a hotel in Mumbai and kill 146 civilians. Which is a little worrying as this is the population of our 'ally' against terrorism but they seem to think we are the terrorists.

Also when asked who they liked/disliked Osama bin Laden just beat their own Prime Minister in the popularity stakes (although neither did very well).

[omarali50]

In matters of national security, in most modern states, the MAJORITY of the population sensibly follows the lead of their government and specially their military. If there was a terrorist attack in Canada and the US govt and army told everyone that USA was not involved and enemies of the USA (RED China, Palau, whatever) did it, you would find that a good 75% would say thats what they think. How would they know any better?

In Pakistan, ISI is still arresting journalists who try to take foreigners to the village of Ajmal Qasab. Pakistani television has never made it clear that any Pakistani had anything to do with it. Lots of religious parties, columnists, news anchors and so on go around saying these are all plots by Hindus, Jews, USA and so on.

What do you expect 75% of the people to believe?

[JJackson]

I note the poll was conducted in March and AFAIK the Pakistani government accepted Lashkar-e-Taiba’s involvement in January. I do not know how the Pakistani public get their information and which sources they believe. The poll would indicate they do not hold their own government in very high esteem. In any case does it really matter? How they came to their belief is not the point; we have to deal with the reality of a population that basically views the US as the enemy and their own government as their accomplices. Any policy initiatives or military actions should be framed based on these realities not the lip service being paid by those who are benefiting form US largesse.

Omarali50 I am not sure I followed your Canadian bombing analogy. I would question the “sensibly follows the lead of their government” bit. As I recall polling data - long after the US Administration had admitted that Iraq was in no way involved in 9/11 – showed a large proportion of the public still thought it was. This seems to back up your assertion that the public will believe what they were told by the government, however it throws into question whether they were sensible so to do. When my government looked like it was going to go to war in Iraq my children went off and protested. I stayed at home confident that while the WMD claims seemed very weak the intelligence they were privy to – and I was not – must have been very strong as they would not attack another country without solid proof. Less than 75% of my fellow citizens (UK – are we a modern state?) fell for the propaganda and I will be more difficult to con next time. As you say it is difficult for the public to come to a judgement as there is seldom any reliable information. One other worrying point in your post is the military. How did they get in to this conversation? I hope they will not be telling me what to think about anything, they should implement the policies of the politicians – assuming we are talking about democracies rather than military governments.

[omarali50]

Maybe i was being too sensible with that "sensibly" thing.

I was thinking of an earlier post of mine where I argued that even when people believe lies told by their national security apparatus, there is some rationality to this attitude. Most people are not "in the know" and the point at which you decide your own govt is a bunch of manipulative liars is (for most people, not University types) a step too far because they still have to live in that country, with that govt, and the alternative may be anarchy.

Sorry, not very clear here, but I have to run soon, will try again someday.

Anyway, my point was that people in Pakistan are not ouliers in this matter of being influenced by their national security apparatus. The outlier is the national security apparatus, which believes that its in their interest to propagate lies about this issue in order to keep their dominant position within domestic politics.

[tequila]

The outlier is the national security apparatus, which believes that its in their interest to propagate lies about this issue in order to keep their dominant position within domestic politics.

This is an outstanding point. Kudos on your recent comments on the Pak military and the influence its public relations apparatus has on public opinion in Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

Once more Stephen Tankel has provided an update on LeT (the group blamed for the Mumbait attack):http://ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/CTCSentinel-Vol2Iss11.pdf

LeT is emerging as a global actor in terrorism.

[davidbfpo]

Some commentary on Mumbai:

1) a long journalistic piece, mainly eye-witnesses and a short update on the changes since:http://www.vqronline.org/webexclusive/2009/11/19/motlagh-mumbai-attacks/

2) a short comment by Stephen Tankel:http://icsr.info/blog/Retrospective-introspective

[tequila]

Virginia Quarterly Review has an excellent 4-part article on the Mumbai attacks here (http://www.vqronline.org/blog/2009/11/16/2611-ten-gunmen/).

[Schmedlap]

Folks over at the al-Sahwa (http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/emerging-threats-active-shooter.html) blog have posed the question (Emerging Threats: Active Shooter Scenario (http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/emerging-threats-active-shooter.html)) of how to cope with the threat of active shooters who seek to pull a Mumbai here in the US.

My comment is here (http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/emerging-threats-active-shooter.html?showComment=1267309929651#c1494831884 351044789) (I still don't understand why it hasn't happened, given how easy it would be).

[davidbfpo]

Schmedlap,

A good catch this "peering into the abyss" link:http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/emerging-threats-active-shooter.html

We have briefly looked at a Mumbai incident in the UK and the former US CT czar Richard Clarke wrote a long article in January 2005 on what could happen - with multiple target themes in the USA. See:http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/01/ten-years-later/3659/

We have been lucky that AQ to date has devoted such attention in attempts to attack a hardened target - passenger aircraft in the air; a point discussed elsewhere on SWC, IIRC on the Detroit attack thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=9331

Not to overlook the Zazi plot with an attack on another hardened target NYC.

The hard reality for CT response planning is that we live in a target rich environment, where guarding a static target can be criticised as uneconomic and deflect the attacker to easier targets (known as 'Prepare' in the UK CT strategy). Hence the resources allocated to first responders and follow-on services.

A point that is easily overlooked in the Mumbai attack is that the attackers kept mobile; moving on foot and at one point in a hijacked police Jeep to other targets.

I am mindful that such scenarios can easily increase fear - after all one of the key aims of terrorism - and maybe this has precluded the state / government raising the issues with the public.

What about the attack on traffic entering the CIA HQ at Langley, many years ago in 1983 and the lone attacker was eventually arrested. See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_shootings_at_CIA_Headquarters

What about the non-AQ enemies following these options? "Home grown" terrorists. IIRC there have been sporadic gun attacks on abortion clinics, Federal buildings and the like.

Scary - Yes
Tell the public now of the possibility - Unwise
Prepare for the possibility - Yes within other contingencies

[Schmedlap]

David,

In my opinion, the silver lining on this issue is that I think terrorist strikes in this country are not intended to really instill fear among Americans. I really think they are intended to provoke us. I think it would be far more frightening if terrorists started hitting "soft targets" such as shopping malls, gridlocked interstates (such as in the hypo I cited), or a high school sporting events. Instead, they want to attack symbols of American financial, economic, military, or cultural significance in order to draw us into a fight on their turf.

Could it be that the "flypaper theory" is actually playing out (albeit not for the reasons often cited)? Rather than us being proactive and "fighting them over there so that we don't fight them here," the terrorist motivation might be precisely to fight us over there because they don't want to fight us here. Hitting soft targets might just result in greater inward-looking domestic security measures. But hitting major symbolic targets, for some reason, seems to stir us to anger more easily. If their intent is to "fight us over there" then they seem to have chosen their targets wisely and maybe this means that we don't have to fear attacks on soft targets.

[Cavguy]

David,

In my opinion, the silver lining on this issue is that I think terrorist strikes in this country are not intended to really instill fear among Americans. I really think they are intended to provoke us. I think it would be far more frightening if terrorists started hitting "soft targets" such as shopping malls, gridlocked interstates (such as in the hypo I cited), or a high school sporting events. Instead, they want to attack symbols of American financial, economic, military, or cultural significance in order to draw us into a fight on their turf.

Could it be that the "flypaper theory" is actually playing out (albeit not for the reasons often cited)? Rather than us being proactive and "fighting them over there so that we don't fight them here," the terrorist motivation might be precisely to fight us over there because they don't want to fight us here. Hitting soft targets might just result in greater inward-looking domestic security measures. But hitting major symbolic targets, for some reason, seems to stir us to anger more easily. If their intent is to "fight us over there" then they seem to have chosen their targets wisely and maybe this means that we don't have to fear attacks on soft targets.

Perhaps. I also think a scenario as outlined above (multiple sustained attacks over time) would cause this country to lose its mind. Take a look at what Malvo caused in NOVA.

I used to think this movie was over the top, but honestly I think we would turn to a solution like the one in "The Seige (http://www.amazon.com/Siege-Martial-Law-Denzel-Washington/dp/B000OT6V0K/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1267416565&sr=1-1)" faster than we would like to admit. Especially with the partisan talk show climate out there.

[Ken White]

Perhaps. I also think a scenario as outlined above (multiple sustained attacks over time) would cause this country to lose its mind. Take a look at what Malvo caused in NOVA.However, I have no doubt the media would -- and would do their level best to drive the country to emulate them. :eek:

Folks I know who lived in DC and Northern Virginia at the time of the Great Sniper Hunt were mostly dismissive of the idea of major panic though they acknowledged at the time the media hype was heading things that way. One friend living in Chevy Chase called it the 'Charlie Moose show.' :wry:

[William F. Owen]

Perhaps. I also think a scenario as outlined above (multiple sustained attacks over time) would cause this country to lose its mind. Take a look at what Malvo caused in NOVA.

I used to think this movie was over the top, but honestly I think we would turn to a solution like the one in "The Seige (http://www.amazon.com/Siege-Martial-Law-Denzel-Washington/dp/B000OT6V0K/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1267416565&sr=1-1)" faster than we would like to admit. Especially with the partisan talk show climate out there.

The movie "The Siege" is often discussed in Israel, as to what US reaction would be if their population was to experience the same frequency and magnitude of either suicide bombings seen in 2002, or rocket attacks.

For example, in 2002, had the US lost the same % of it's population to suicide attacks, the number would be in excess of 6,000 dead.

[Schmedlap]

The movie "The Siege" is often discussed in Israel, as to what US reaction would be if their population was to experience the same frequency and magnitude of either suicide bombings seen in 2002, or rocket attacks.

For example, in 2002, had the US lost the same % of it's population to suicide attacks, the number would be in excess of 6,000 dead.

I think you've also got to consider how big our country is. Let's say there are 50 suicide attacks within the span of a month (one in each state). The odds of me knowing any of the victims or feeling threatened is much lower than if I'm in Jerusalem and some guy blows himself up in Tel Aviv. The distance between those two locales is shorter than many people commute to work in the US.


I used to think this movie was over the top, but honestly I think we would turn to a solution like the one in "The Seige (http://www.amazon.com/Siege-Martial-Law-Denzel-Washington/dp/B000OT6V0K/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1267416565&sr=1-1)" faster than we would like to admit. Especially with the partisan talk show climate out there.

Am I completely out of touch? The movie sounds absurd to me, as does the notion of "the partisan talk show climate" adding to the possibility of it. I'll even throw in the partisan TV shows and internet sites and I still think it's absurd. This only struck a chord with me because I read the recent blog posts of Bernard Finel who seems to think that one party is good, one party is evil, and Sarah Palin is going to be President. I am amazed to see how much this fear-mongering from both sides of the political spectrum is gaining traction. How many of the people who fear Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck have actually listened to their shows while stuck in traffic? It's a mix of flawed history, nonsensical and outlandish attacks against their political enemies that only appeal to a small slice of the population, jokes, and random callers who are even more poorly informed and poorly educated than the hosts. There are no demands to overthrow the government, wage violence, or spread hate. It's a bunch of harmless nonsense, just like the crap on cable TV and the partisan internet sites. It appeals to the fringes, yet many seem to be convinced that it is going to take over the country. I don't get it.

[omarali50]

As a Pakistani-American, I have more than a passing interest in this subject, and I do think that the movie scenario ("the siege") is overblown. I have no doubt that if there is a mass-casualty terrorist attack there will be a backlash and so on, but I dont think the country will slip into martial law or any other nonsense like that.
I think the concept "Mumbai style attack" needs to be defined better for this discussion. The Mumbai attack was NOT some small group of demented Indian Muslims who decided it was their duty to avenge XYZ offenses by going postal on a massive scale. It was a well planned terrorist operation, meticulously put together by a professional terrorist organization (possibly with the support of a certain state agency). The equivalent of that in the US would imply that there is an identifiable foreign-based terrorist group carrying out the attack. In such a situation, how long would it take for anger to be focused on said foreign organization and its sponsors/hosts/friends and away from some sort of mindless arrival of jackboots in the White house?
Personally, I dont see such an attack as very likely because I think organizations capable of such planning and execution are known entities and calculate their moves carefully and will not chose to do something like this at this time.

A "spontaneous jihadi operation" in which some morons in Virginia get together, decide they need to avenge the blood of their brothers in Marja or whatever and go to I-95 and start killing people is a very different matter. Its not out of the question (my guess is that a small but non-zero number of such morons does exist) but its even less likely than Lashkar E Tayyaba deciding to raise their jihad to thermonuclear levels. And there is a very good chance that said morons will give themselves away (possibly to FBI flypaper operations) before they ever buy their guns and drive up to the interstate. And its likely that if they DO get to the interstate, they will not do as much damage as Schmedlap's scary scenario because they are morons, not trained terrorists.
But if it does happen, what would the response be?

[davidbfpo]

Omarali50,

Partial quote:
A "spontaneous jihadi operation" in which some morons in Virginia get together, decide they need to avenge the blood of their brothers in Marja or whatever and go to I-95 and start killing people is a very different matter....But if it does happen, what would the response be?

Replace 'I-95' with the UK's busiest highway and I can comment. Chaos and fear if the attackers are not caught. A national state of high alert for the security forces, military aid - notably reaction forces with helicopters - and if there is a second attack a state of emergency. Grim for isolated minority and Muslim communities with attacks on mosques etc. A series of vigilante actions on ''suspects", e.g. Bangladeshi waiters driving home at night.

In a bizarre way if Muslims are amongst the casualties, as they were in 7/7 bombings, then less anger amongst the general population.

[Cavguy]

The equivalent of that in the US would imply that there is an identifiable foreign-based terrorist group carrying out the attack. In such a situation, how long would it take for anger to be focused on said foreign organization and its sponsors/hosts/friends and away from some sort of mindless arrival of jackboots in the White house?
Personally, I dont see such an attack as very likely because I think organizations capable of such planning and execution are known entities and calculate their moves carefully and will not chose to do something like this at this time.

...

But if it does happen, what would the response be?

I think I was thinking about the reaction to a sustained terror campaign inside the USA - as described in the article linked by David above - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/01/ten-years-later/3659/

Thirty days of attacks on soft targets would make us crazy. I hope I'm wrong.

[omarali50]

I think I was thinking about the reaction to a sustained terror campaign inside the USA - as described in the article linked by David above - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/01/ten-years-later/3659/

Thirty days of attacks on soft targets would make us crazy. I hope I'm wrong.

I am sure 30 days of attacks would drive a lot of people crazy, but that sounds like an implausible scenario. Israel is not a good comparison. Israel has occupied Palestinian land for 50 years, they live next door, they have been fighting for decades, they know each other's capabilities (more or less) and attacks and counter-attacks are all part of a given pattern that both sides can make sense of (even when they dont like it). Who would launch this sustained campaign against the US? You would pretty much have to be in Mexico to do that (Canada is presumably off the radar after yesterday's game) and what Mexican organization is working on any such campaign?
"lone wolf" actions by individual Muslims suddenly seized by the urge to practice jihad are certainly possible, but that's not the same thing as a sustained campaign.
LET (to take one example) could probably launch ONE well coordinated attack if they wanted to (meaning they have the ability, but not necessarily the motivation), but they are not crazy and such an attack would be a crazy undertaking (the US is not India and so on).
David, England (unfortunately) does have a bigger pool of Islamist nuts than the US does. An attack is more likely there than in the US, but even there, I dont think its very likely. My guess is that it is becoming LESS likely with every passing year. I firmly believe that "lone wolf" actions are not that important or that likely. The really serious threats always come from organizations and those are under pressure in Pakistan and too remote from the modern world in Somalia...

[davidbfpo]

The Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) leader has been interviewed in Lahore and in a wide ranging interview denies the organisation are terrorists. Plus Mumbai wasn't us.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/hafiz-muhammad-saeed-do-i-look-like-a-terrorist-1928033.html

[davidbfpo]

Not an unexpected comment given in a talk to a CT security industry exhibition:
Military-style guns for police to fight terrorists on the streets Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer has called for armed police across the country to be equipped with high powered assault rifles to cope with a Mumbai-style terrorist attack.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/7594871/Military-style-guns-for-police-to-fight-terrorists-on-the-streets.html

This advocacy raises a number of issues, e.g. why across the country, not just London. More fundamentally, is a Mumbai type attack likely in London or other places?

[William F. Owen]

Military-style guns for police to fight terrorists on the streets Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer has called for armed police across the country to be equipped with high powered assault rifles to cope with a Mumbai-style terrorist attack.
IIRC 2 UK constabularies have H&K G-36. The Fuzz at Luton Airport certainly do, and SO-19 has been seen with G-3K.

- and if the UK Police want to be able to take on Mumbia-type clowns, then they will have to change the law.
"Minimum use of force" has no place in a real fire fight.

[gh_uk]

The former RUC (now PSNI) HQ Mobile Support Units (HMSU) carried HK G3 rifles for years. The PSNI HMSUs are still equipped with them, as seen in the shooting of Officer Stephen Carroll last year.

Evidence...
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45552000/jpg/_45552661_006998760-1.jpg

PSNI also appear to have G36..

http://www.chelmsfordweeklynews.co.uk/resources/images/842365/?type=display

[davidbfpo]

A re-run of terrorist training camps and attacks in the West, allegedly for Mumbai-style attacks, but the last paragraph fits in with the last few posts on UK police firearms policy & practice:
In response police have reassessed the way they deal with attacks. Metropolitan Police tactical response teams have been training on a "shoot to kill" basis after briefings that most deaths in such an attack were likely to occur in the first 30 minutes of an attack.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8033204/Britons-training-in-Pakistan-for-UK-terror-attacks.html

That still poses a number of problems, such as getting to the scene, a briefing and then engagement. I shall leave aside how many properly armed officers are available and engaged.

[SJPONeill]

It may be that, just has the military have been major chnage in the last decade, so the Police have to do the same, maintaining the perception of the 'bobby on the beat' but backing him/her up with more responsive force options...

[omarali50]

From an Indian magazine, interesting reading (even if not all true....who knows that the truth is in such matters):

http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?267300

[davidbfpo]

SAS officers warn that Britain is unprepared for a Mumbai-style attack
Two former senior commanders of the SAS have warned that Britain's security forces would be unable to cope with a Mumbai-style terrorist attack in central London.

This would temporarily create a war zone within London and one that cannot effectively be countered by the police alone. The police are good at policing but we doubt they would want to try war fighting.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8038942/SAS-officers-warn-that-Britain-is-unprepared-for-a-Mumbai-style-attack.html

[Bob's World]

David,

Isn't this largely true everywhere? At the end of the day one has to balance the likelihood and potential damage of such an attack against the cost of defending every potential place such an attack could occur.

London is a city famous for being able to shake off far worse attacks on a nightly basis, and to brush itself off and get on with business the following day. While no Londoner would want to return to the dark days of WWII, nor to have a Mumbai-style attack launched against them; I suspect they also would not want prefer a London designed to prevent/quickly squash such an attack either.

[Tukhachevskii]

Can someone explain what this statement means (I'm hoping its a typing error) given that the preceding four points would, ahem, point to the opposite conclusion (IMO)...

"And fifthly, defence spending must be reduced to ensure that the department does not compromise National Economic Security at a time of ongoin financial instability"


p.s. Isn't the idea of National Economic Security somewhat...anti-capitlaist/free market?;)

[davidbfpo]

Isn't this largely true everywhere? At the end of the day one has to balance the likelihood and potential damage of such an attack against the cost of defending every potential place such an attack could occur.

London is a city famous for being able to shake off far worse attacks on a nightly basis, and to brush itself off and get on with business the following day. While no Londoner would want to return to the dark days of WWII, nor to have a Mumbai-style attack launched against them; I suspect they also would not want prefer a London designed to prevent/quickly squash such an attack either.

Bob,

I agree, although I only visit London. Yes, a Mumbai-style attack would be mayhem for a time, even say if London Heathrow was the target - lots of people, symbolism and lots of armed police. What contemporary Londoners think I know not. I am not convinced the popular London memory stretches back to the WW2 Blitz, let alone the Irish bombings; institutions can be different.

We have an unusual coincidence here: a UK defence review, a Conservative Party conference (in Birmingham), a terror alert and forthcoming cuts to public spending (including the police and other agencies).

[Global Scout]

The German air attacks on London during WWII only increased the UK's resolve, I suspect part of that was because it reinforced a sense of nationalism.

A successful Mumbai attack on the other hand would call into question the legitimacy of the current government (maybe rightfully so). It isn't so much a matter of how the people react as a whole, but the internal political instability that would follow such an attack. I agree the effects would be limited, and in the end do much harm to the Islamists than the West, but then again the Islamists have never been known for thinking rationally.

However I do disagree that the threat of such an attack is low probability, quite the contrary, until it proves to be ineffective the Islamists will attempt to use it repeatedly. I'm surprised they haven't used it since Mumbai, but then again it takes a lot of longer to train competent commando style forces than brain washing a young man to strap on a suicide vest.

[davidbfpo]

I missed the report commissioned by the state government into the Mumbai attacks, the Pradhan Committee Report and the entire report is available via the links on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pradhan_Inquiry_Commission

Note the report was delayed by the state government and legal action taken led to its publication.

The report highlights three innovations:

a) the ability to direct the attackers from a foreign country
b) use made of host nation visual media for guided killing
c) elaborate subterfuge in command and control

Plus one tactical innovation: at each target (except the railway terminus) the attackers aimed to climb up and reach height to kill to the maximum effect.

I suspect there is more in the full report.

[davidbfpo]

A "scoop" by the BBC's Security Correspondent, sub-titled:
UK security chiefs have ordered an acceleration in police training to prepare for any future "Mumbai-style" gun attack in a public place.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11622218

The most interesting part is the embedded interview with an ex-SAS officer and listen to last few seconds.

Moderator's Note: I have changed the title (October 2010) to reflect the posts on the impact of the attacks.

[carl]

David:

The ex-SAS officer said UK patrol officers would need military training in order to effectively respond to such an attack. The US been involved in shooting wars since 2001 so I would guess that a lot of combat experienced men have been or are entering our police forces. This gives American police a valuable human resource with which to combat a Mumbai style attack.

Would it be the same in the UK?

[davidbfpo]

David:

The ex-SAS officer said UK patrol officers would need military training in order to effectively respond to such an attack... I would guess that a lot of combat experienced men have been or are entering our ...American police a valuable human resource with which to combat a Mumbai style attack. Would it be the same in the UK?

Carl,

I think the numbers of ex-military recruits to the UK police has dropped substantially in the last twenty years, partly as our military has shrunk, some have joined the PMC sector and the police has gone "up market" for college graduate-level education. A lot of UK firearms officers have no military background. Plus the police have not been recruiting large numbers and many now expect not to recruit for sometime - "cuts" in public spending (13% budget cut for my own employer, in one year).

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to FP blog to these two Washington Post articles; FP stated:
The Washington Post and ProPublica this week published a major two-part report on the possible Pakistani military connections with the militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the 2008 Mumbai attacks, focusing on American David Coleman Headley and key LeT leader (and Pakistani military officer, according to some officials) Sajid Mir.

Links Part One:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/13/AR2010111304345.html and Part Two:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/14/AR2010111404515_pf.html

More reports on author's website:http://www.propublica.org/article/mumbai-attacks-david-coleman-headley-part-2

A lot to absorb and will report back when read later this week.

[omarali50]

Mumbai continues to interest me because I think the cold-blooded intent, the conscious choices, the pleasure taken in the killing, the personal touch, these make Sajid Mir and company more evil than presidents and marshals who order gigantic wars with thousands of casualties and I find myself trying to figure out if my "gut reaction" is intellectually defensible? Is it really correct to feel that the murder of 170 people was a more evil act than the bombing of thousands? After two years, I still think so, but I welcome comments.

My comments are at http://accidentalblogger.typepad.com/accidental_blogger/2010/11/terror-in-mumbai-propublica-investigates.html

[subrosa]

who is mir - is he just a lashkar commander or more? btw any latest new on the identity of major iqbal? this really is the tip of the iceberg...ill read your comments on that link now...

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to LWOT posting for drawing attention to this long article by a website I know of and rarely visit:
Sebastian Rotella of ProPublica has produced a lengthy profile of Sajid Mir, the shadowy Pakistani figure with close links to Pakistani security forces who reportedly ran the 2008 Mumbai attacks for Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Link:http://www.propublica.org/article/pakistan-and-the-mumbai-attacks-the-untold-story

Some of the article on a quick read is not new.

[carl]

Mumbai continues to interest me because I think the cold-blooded intent, the conscious choices, the pleasure taken in the killing, the personal touch, these make Sajid Mir and company more evil than presidents and marshals who order gigantic wars with thousands of casualties and I find myself trying to figure out if my "gut reaction" is intellectually defensible? Is it really correct to feel that the murder of 170 people was a more evil act than the bombing of thousands? After two years, I still think so, but I welcome comments.

Why is it important that it be intellectually defensible? It is emotionally defensible. The picture you have in your mind's eye of a individual chortling at the thought of another individual's pain provokes a stronger emotional reaction. That is important in and of itself. The images of the Taliban commander whipping the teenage girl probably hurt them more than some of their bombings that killed people.

If you had it in your power, I'm sure you would deal just retribution to both of the parties you refer to. If you didn't...now that would be intellectually indefensible.

[davidbfpo]

Via an Indian contact an article in the magazine of the Intl. Assoc. Chiefs of Police, reporting on a LAPD & Las Vegas PD visit to Mumbai: http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/magazine/index.cfm?fuseaction=display&article_id=2309&issue_id=22011

Under 'More Questions than Answers' subtitle:
To effectively learn from the lessons of Mumbai, police leaders must ask themselves these questions:

How effectively can your agency’s personnel observe, record, collect, process, interpret, and share suspicious preoperational terrorist activity?
How efficiently could your communications (9-1-1) center process the volume of phone calls, and what is the realistic communication and interaction between police, fire, and emergency medical services (EMS) under these circumstances?

How does your communications center relay real-time tactical information to your intelligence/fusion center?
How will your intelligence/fusion center relay actionable intelligence to the field commanders from police, fire, and EMS?
What response capability do you have from a regional perspective? Does your current response protocol involve only SWAT/tactical teams? Does your multiagency response protocol involve multiple venues in a coordinated attack?
How will the fire and emergency medical services react when facing an armed threat as well as active fires and wounded victims?

I recommend checking an Indian outlook:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/dealing-with-aftermath-of-attacks

[Bill Moore]

The typical active shooter is a lone offender or part of a small group, poorly trained and poorly disciplined. The enemy that state and local law enforcement must prepare for now is militarily trained, highly disciplined, and unyieldingly determined. While communities seek to remediate weaknesses, terrorists are plotting to replicate their successes.

David, both articles were outstanding, thanks for posting. Fortunately we haven't seen any repeats of the Mumbai style attack (at least to that level) yet, so we have had ample time to prepare, but the question remains, did we?

Probably two of the most important take aways that addressed systemic issues were the ability to process data from multiple source and connect the dots. In the U.S. we're much better than we were, but bureaucracies and underinvesting in knowledge management still leave vulnerabilities.

One of the articles made a comment that our intelligence agencies are still organized on the WWII model, and that since terrorists primarily use organized crime tradecraft we're not properly organized to counter this threat effectively. Could very well be true, but I'm not sure that a transnational threat is a police problem as suggested, it may just require a better nexus between law enforcement and intelligence agencies. I don't think the police (anywhere) have the capacity that national intelligence organizations do, nor the authorities to operate external to their districts/nation for the most part.

If you had the authority to design the perfect organization for countering this threat, what would it look like?

[omarali50]

The real lesson (in my humble opinion) is that such operations need state support and sponsorship. NO serious terrorist organization has managed to reach this level of sophistication without state sponsorship or a large enough base of operations that it controls (Tamil Tigers?). Police professionals have to take their steps, but the real impact is going to come from making sure competing states do not consider it reasonable to do this sort of thing...

[AdamG]

CHENNAI: United States officials believed that a pink foam-covered box found at one of the 26/11 Mumbai attack sites was crucial to proving the Pakistani links to the attacks, but complained that India was “not forthcoming” about sharing information about it.

A U.S. Embassy cable from Islamabad ( 204888: confidential) sent by Charge d'Affaires Gerald Feierstein on April 30, 2009, accessed by The Hindu through WikiLeaks, spoke of Pakistani officials handing over to the Federal Bureau of Investigation a similar box from investigations on Pakistan's side.

The cable said this was “possibly the most important piece of evidence shared [by Pakistan] with the FBI,” and that an analysis of the boxes could help prove that the conspiracy was hatched in Pakistan.

http://www.hindu.com/2011/03/29/stories/2011032954120100.htm

[carl]

This may have already been covered but the simple matter of how patrol officers are armed in American cities most likely to be attacked Mumbai style may be of some import. Washington and New York are probably the two most likely targets. Several years ago I had contact with a D.C. officer and he told me they were armed only with a 9mm pistol. If a Mumbai style attack occurred in DC the first officers to respond would be patrol officers and with only pistols they may as well have a bag of rocks to throw. I know the SWAT types would show up but a lot of bad things could happen in the interval.

There are places where normal patrol officers all have AR-15s. That gives them the capability to do something effective right away.

I don't know how NYPD guys are armed.

[JMA]

Several years ago I had contact with a D.C. officer and he told me they were armed only with a 9mm pistol. If a Mumbai style attack occurred in DC the first officers to respond would be patrol officers and with only pistols they may as well have a bag of rocks to throw. I know the SWAT types would show up but a lot of bad things could happen in the interval.

There are places where normal patrol officers all have AR-15s. That gives them the capability to do something effective right away.

Carl, there is a downside to effectively arming patrol officers for the worst case scenario. Here (in South Africa) policemen are killed for their 9mm pistols. I can just imagine what would happen if the prize was increased to be a semi-automatic rifle.

[carl]

JMA: No offense intended but South African police are not American police and the criminal environment is radically different. I had some contact with South African police and I was shocked at what they didn't have, like a pen and a notebook. In the part of the US I was familiar with it was common for patrol officers to have AR-15s.

[JMA]

JMA: No offense intended but South African police are not American police and the criminal environment is radically different. I had some contact with South African police and I was shocked at what they didn't have, like a pen and a notebook. In the part of the US I was familiar with it was common for patrol officers to have AR-15s.

Carl, you seem to have missed my point. It is simply that there is a downside to putting more and bigger weapons on the street. Here I suggest thought be given to the Law of Unintended Consequences.

As to SA police. A good case study in the outcome of blindly applying demographic quotas. Why would you need a pen and notebook if you are semi-literate or even illiterate?

[tequila]

Here in NY, the normal street cop has a 9mm only. ESU, our version of SWAT, has MP5s and M4s.

Generally in NYC police officers rely on force of numbers. Backup is 2-5 minutes away in most cases. An "85" call for assistance will have a dozen or so cops on scene - a "13" call with shots fired will roll the nearest ESU truck and probably every cop on the watch at the time.

I doubt the Mumbai attackers would get very far in NYC. The Mumbai attacks really showed the difference between a professional police force and the Mumbai police force - I remember watching police armed with Enfield rifles cowering in Victoria Station while civilians were being slaughtered down the hall. The NYPD has many, many problems, but I am certain that the vast majority of NYPD officers would not react similarly.

[carl]

Tequila: Are most NYPD guys on foot patrol or do they work out of cars? For foot patrol pistols would be the most practical but for cars ARs might help. Point taken about the NYPD piling on regardless especially since many guys hired in the recent past may have combat experience.

I wonder about the DC police though. In years past they did not have a good reputation.

JMA: I can see your point about unintended consequences, I just don't think it would be much of a problem here. It hasn't been so far. Why take a chance on attacking an officer when you can buy a gun that has been stolen in a burglary?

I wondered why those guys told us to go to the station to file a report. It never occurred to that they might not have been able to take one.

[tequila]

Carl: It's a mix of foot and car patrols depending on the precinct area and whatever operations are going on. New joins get the foot posts, of course.

Personally I don't think the AR in a car is a good idea or necessary, though my NYPD friends probably disagree. NYC is not the kind of threat environment which requires AR firepower on a regular basis - I can see a smaller, more rural department needing that kind of instant backup, but in NYC backup comes in the form of six of your buddies in under five minutes, which most departments don't have.

[Ken White]

Personally I don't think the AR in a car is a good idea or necessary...The Northeastern corridor is unusual...

Pistols only for the Police work, light and high speed rail work, single payer medical care can work.

Having also lived in suburbs of other large cities in the South, Midwest and on the West Coast, it's a very different world. Small towns are yet more different -- for all those things. Huge nation, one size won't fit all.

Even for Cops, METT-TC -- and training -- make a difference. :wry:

[davidbfpo]

A commentary by SWC member Zenpundit on his blog site:http://zenpundit.com/?p=3942

I don't suppose the Federal Prosecutor thought the trial would be in a vacuum, but the lack of coverage and an official stance is puzzling.

[omarali50]

Why puzzling?
Those are (or were) thought to be "India-specific terrorists" and if the price for cooperation in Afghanistan is a few more dead in India, would the USG refuse such a deal? I am just curious to know what people think (and what you think)? As always, I have no way of knowing for sure, but from the way things have proceeded in the last 25 years, it seems to me that the USG would be able to live with such terrorism provided it was closely monitored and US citizens were not primary targets and provided there is more cooperation in Afghanistan. Or do you think I am too cynical?

[davidbfpo]

That comment followed reading the Zenpundit and linked articles regarding the lack of US press coverage and the US official stance on the Chicago trial is puzzling. My apologies for being imprecise.:o More another time.

[Ray]

I think the US has SWAT teams.

They could take on where the police left in case of a Mumbai style attack.

[carl]

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?

[omarali50]

well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

[carl]

This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

[Ray]

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?


well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

If a second Mumbai happens, the the Govt of India will have no options. It will have to take a plunge. The Indian public will not tolerate anything otherwise since enough of patience has been displayed.

Sanctions are passé.

Setting off bombs in public places would also not do since the terrorists are at this game, seething with rage and impotence that Pakistan is owned. The same rage has visited the common Pakistani. If one visits the websites of Pakistan, one would realise the rage at the humiliation Pakistan is experiencing rightly over the manner in which the Pak Armed Forces machismo, as believed by the common Pakistanis, has been totally shattered. They can't reconcile with the fact that three helicopters flew from Bagram without detection by their radars, knocked out Osama's lair and then exfiltrated even as the PAF F16s scrambled and were on the hunt!!

There is however a silver lining to the US raid. Pak Army and the ISI will be now careful not to overplay their cards and instead will keep the terrorist, their strategic assets, under leash. Of course, they will jigger the Kashmir terrorism a couple of notch higher, but would not allow them to have forays into hinterland India since they too know the consequences and the US will not be there to bail them out as they have always done so far.

China, in a scenario of Indo Pak confrontation, the Pak Army knows will make the usual pious noises since they (China) are more concerned about keeping up with the US and will not squander their new gained wealth in fruitless wars, the consequence of which is not known and knowing that India is no longer the pushover of 1962, having tasted the Indian wrath at Chola:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chola_incident, Natu La: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathu_La, and Sumdorong Chu incident: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_Sino-Indian_skirmish.


This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

India will capitalise on not losing strategic surprise since that is the essence of ensuring some effect in any confrontation with Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

CLS:
ProPublica, which has exhaustively covered the trial and investigated links between Pakistan’s ISI and militant groups, has compiled a great primer on the significance of the trial and the major players.

Link:http://www.propublica.org/article/use-our-coverage-to-understand-pakistans-terror-connections

[davidbfpo]

A fuller title 'Chicago Terrorism Trial: What We Learned, and Didn’t, About Pakistan’s Terror Connections' and a quick summary:http://www.propublica.org/article/chicago-terrorism-trial-what-we-learned-and-didnt

The role of the informant remains murky and other parties confidence in how the USA managed him and what was gained is hardly secure.

[omarali50]

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2011/06/the-art-of-the-deal.html

[AdamG]

Pakistan's test launch last month of a new short-range ballistic missile, when added to its quickly growing arsenal of lower-power nuclear weapons, indicates the South Asian country is seriously readying to use its nuclear deterrent should war break out again with India, the Times of India reported on Sunday.

Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen said the nuclear-capable Hatf 9 missile appears to be designed to attack an invading force of Indian soldiers.

"While that wouldn't threaten Indian survival in itself, it would of course mean crossing the nuclear threshold early in a conflict, which is one of the particular concerns of a short-range nuclear weapon," Kristensen said.

The missile's 37-mile flight range means it could not strike any major Indian population center. However, the weapon could undermine the Indian military's unconfirmed "Cold Start" doctrine, which focuses on the rapid deployment of armed forces into Pakistan for a targeted strike following a terrorist assault on the scale of the 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

http://ht.ly/1d0Mxv

[Ray]

It is Pakistan's answer to India's Cold Start.

To use a tac nuke in the face of the advance.

[motorfirebox]

A little late, and I'm not sure this hasn't been discussed elsewhere, but the recent attack in Kabul (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13947169) was obviously influenced by the Mumbai attacks. The Kabul incident met with significantly less success; it's hard to keep that particular sort of ball rolling without the element in surprise, and I don't imagine that at this point anyone in Kabul remains surprised for long.

[omarali50]

The element of surprise is, of course, an essential part of the success of each new terrorist method. ..and I expect that properly trained western armies and police forces learn from the past, and so may the Afghans, but I would add one caveat: in a largely incompetent state like India, dont expect miracles next time either. Another Mumbai attack would probably be terminated more quickly, but mass casualties would still occur and the local police will be suitably surprised again..and again.

[motorfirebox]

Part of that is simple frequency. Guys popping out of the woodwork to kill civilians at random is a rare event in Mumbai; it's not common even in the areas of hottest Naxalite conflict. In Kabul, it's, y'know, Tuesday.

[davidbfpo]

An IISS expert was interviewed on the latest Mumbai attacks on BBC Radio 4 and the Q&A is here:http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=213 *Broken link and IISS archive search failed*.

One wonders if the local group the Indian Mujahedeen decided it was time to re-appear, five years after their devasting attack on Mumbai trains, having been up-staged by the LeT attack?

My comment is contested by a RUSI analyst, partly as the Indian Mujahedeen are not an independent group due to their links to Let, ISI and others. A longer commentary, with an interesting graph on attacks in India, with Mumbai the focus:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4E1EAAC92F3AD/

[blueblood]

The element of surprise is, of course, an essential part of the success of each new terrorist method. ..and I expect that properly trained western armies and police forces learn from the past, and so may the Afghans, but I would add one caveat: in a largely incompetent state like India, dont expect miracles next time either. Another Mumbai attack would probably be terminated more quickly, but mass casualties would still occur and the local police will be suitably surprised again..and again.

Incompetent no, overstretched yes. Ratio of law enforcement per capita is very low in India. No wonders promised but looking at the changes post 26/11, India is far better prepared for such incidents. But then again that is hardly stopping the Taliban in Pakistan which has much better police structure nor the Rangers are able to curb the political violence in Karachi. At the end of the day it all boils down to willpower of the ruling government, both Center and State and in case of Mumbai they are same and are as good as #### on a bull.

[omarali50]

Frontline continues to dig, sometimes to the embarrassment of the US government : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/david-headley/

As they said about Abbotabad: incompetent? or complicit?: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/afghanistan-pakistan/david-headley/did-the-u-s-know-more-than-it-let-on-about-mumbai-attacks-suspect/

[omarali50]

btw, I would put Mumbai as exhibit number one on the list of reasons why the deep state is a bit scary. Most Americans won’t agree because only a few Americans died in that attack, but the brazenness and ruthlessness of the attack, and the chilling evil of those recorded phone calls will give pause to anyone who pays attention. Being willing to protect such people is the preserve of superpowers; for a relatively small power to do so may indicate dangerous ambition, or dangerous delusion… or both. On the other hand, if Perry and and Gingrich can say its OK to use "deniable covert means", why not Pakistan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PSauTty9LA

[carl]

Omar:

To further my rep as a cynic about our political elites, it wouldn't have mattered if a lot more Americans had been killed by the "deep state" in that incident. The "deep state" kills Americans on a regular basis in Afghanistan. The Americans it kills are not the right Americans, they being mostly flyover people. If on the other hand a number of "senator's sons" were killed, that "would stimulate the bidding at Imperial Headquarters." But those people will never be in the line of fire so nothing much will ever happen.

[davidbfpo]

The attached paper given at a Mumbai conference is more a commentary on the continuing inability of India to get a coherent CT strategy and structure in place. the author Vappala Balachandran writes a regular column on such matters; in the past he was a police officer and intelligence officer. He also co-authored a state report on the attacks, which is linked on an earlier post.

[davidbfpo]

I have moved the recent posts on the US declaration of a reward for the location / capture of LeT's leader to the LeT's thread, where they fit better:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13337

Please post there!

[davidbfpo]

A FP article which reviews the prospects for complex urban assaults, with many links within and worthy of adding here:http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/16/the_mumbai_model_and_the_threat_of_urban_terrorism

To date there have been no repeats of Mumbai in the West and rightly the author reminds us that we are the lucky ones:
The terrorist attacks in Kabul, Mumbai, and Pakistan constitute gruesome evidence of the important role of sound command and control and intelligence in dealing with the urban adversary's potential for operational disruption in crowded cities.

[carl]

David:

Allow me a bit of chauvinism but I think a big part of it is that the average western street cops are just better and will react to contain the situation without any central direction.

[Ray]

I would not know about how efficiently the Police of the West can handle terrorists, but in India the Police is not geared to handle terrorists.

In India, with regional political parties holding sway in many States, the issue of federalism has also surfaced.

The States find the Central overbearance and practically taking over the States' responsiblility as an infringement to the concept of federalism.

This is stil to be resolved.

Till that time, the terrorist wil have a field day!

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Carl,


Allow me a bit of chauvinism but I think a big part of it is that the average western street cops are just better and will react to contain the situation without any central direction.

Since Ray chimmed in as the expert on India CT capabilities, I don't feel offensive agreeing with you that our police will respond in a more effective manner than India's did. However, their capacity and ability to respond effectively to a complex attack will vary considerably based on where a future attack takes place. The police in NYC appear to be very capable of responding, and I'm confident that is true in other cities as well. Not so confident that capacity and ability exists in a lot of mid size cities. This largely based on budgets, if the city can't afford the right number of officers and afford to train them to the appropriate level, then we assume more risk. On the other hand, we do have armed citizens (thank God we all haven't gone metro) that will also respond.

Europe of the other hand appears to be very vulnerable to these types of attacks and if their intelligence services fails to detect and pre-empt it I suspect such an attack could have a significant impact (much like the Norway shooter recently).

[Ray]

India's counter-terrorism strategy



\http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/apr/05spec.htm

Maybe of interest.

[Ray]

Posted by Carl,



Since Ray chimmed in as the expert on India CT capabilities, I don't feel offensive agreeing with you that our police will respond in a more effective manner than India's did. However, their capacity and ability to respond effectively to a complex attack will vary considerably based on where a future attack takes place. The police in NYC appear to be very capable of responding, and I'm confident that is true in other cities as well. Not so confident that capacity and ability exists in a lot of mid size cities. This largely based on budgets, if the city can't afford the right number of officers and afford to train them to the appropriate level, then we assume more risk. On the other hand, we do have armed citizens (thank God we all haven't gone metro) that will also respond.

Europe of the other hand appears to be very vulnerable to these types of attacks and if their intelligence services fails to detect and pre-empt it I suspect such an attack could have a significant impact (much like the Norway shooter recently).

I would think that more than the US Police being effective, the manner in which the US has 'wired' up the nation to keep a tab on all citizens to include their communications and the way the US has tightened up the entry of foreigners into the US, is what is keeping the US safe.

Of course, at times it is ridiculous wherein ex Presidents and Ministers of countries or dignitaries invited by the US Govt get strip searched. Indirectly, it means that the US does not even trust Ministers of other countries! :confused:

[Ken White]

...Indirectly, it means that the US does not even trust Ministers of other countries! :confused:This is, after all, a nation that does not trust any of its own politicians...:D

[carl]

Bill:

In the medium to small size city and area I was familiar with officers would just respond and go to the sound of guns so to speak. There would be lots of citizens who would help them out. It would be more efficient if each officer were trained specifically for the situation but I think simple individual officer initiative coupled with citizen assistance would be good enough, not perfect, but good enough. Maybe it could viewed as something like a swarm attack in reverse.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Ray,


I would think that more than the US Police being effective, the manner in which the US has 'wired' up the nation to keep a tab on all citizens to include their communications and the way the US has tightened up the entry of foreigners into the US, is what is keeping the US safe.

You forgot to add that we talk kids into wanting to conduct acts and then provide inert bomb making materials and put them in jail for an attempted terrorist attack. It is sort of a clairvoyant pre-emptive arrest type of approach.

On a serious note I agree it is our intelligence more than anything else that keeps us safe. I don't the spying/observation of our own people is near as extensive as you're implying.

Carl,

I like your reverse swarm concept, and I agree it would work in a few minutes to a few hours, so once the police and people are mobilized the terrorists will be defeated. Keep our country strong, support the NRA :D

[Ray]

Key 26/11 conspirator Abu Hamza arrested at Delhi Airport

http://www.readability.com/articles/io2ksvf0

Also see Saudi Assistance and Pak Passport

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-abu-jundal-arrest-saudi-arabia/1/202430.html

Abu Hamza was in Saudi Arabia to gather funds for big terror strike; Pakistan tried to prevent his extradition: Sources
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/abu-hamza-was-in-saudi-arabia-to-gather-funds-for-big-terror-strike-pakistan-tried-to-prevent-his-ex-235989

[Ray]

Lashkar backer detained at US airport

Houston, June 28 (PTI): Former Pakistani minister Shaikh Rashid, known for his support for the Lashkar-e-Toiba, was detained at Houston airport on arrival for his possible links with Jamat-ud-Dawa founder Hafiz Saeed, the mastermind of the Mumbai attacks.

The JuD is considered to be a cover for the Lashkar-e-Toiba.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120629/jsp/foreign/story_15670575.jsp#.T-2If7Ue7CA

[Ray]

In my opinion, Pakistan is as sane a country as any other.

The only problem is that it suffers from schizophrenia.

The Muslims of India created a new country because they felt Muslims would be swamped by Hindus of India. Very justifiable if you ask me, given their arguments of those time. However, that is where the rot started. The intelligentsia of what became Pakistan came from India, what are called the Mohajirs.

The Mohajir were the educated lot, the leaders in the field of education, commerce, law, governance and administration. The real sons of the soil of Pakistan (the area which became West Pakistan) were feudal satraps and military men who had jagirs and so on. Beyond the feudal lords there were mere rustics who were bonded labour and some.

This is where the jockeying started. Would the Punjabis ( the rich feudal and military) satraps be the ones who chalk the destiny or the refugees from India, the educated and commercially astute Mohajirs?

Mohajirs took over the govt (Jinnah was a Mohajir and a whole lot of others), administration, judiciary and commerce. To ensure that they were not uprooted, they engineered to drum in Islam as the raison d’être for Pakistan and brought in Urdu (the language of sophisticated Muslim of UP India) as the national language. The so called Pakistani ‘sons of the soil’ were outmanoeuvred!!!!

Kashmir came as a manna. The sons of the soil were the backbone of the Army. This allowed them to project themselves as the ‘saviour’ of Pakistan and cleverly using the Mohajirs’ ‘anti India and anti Hindu’ agenda. So, the Mohajirs were checkmated.

Ever since, this has been the lever for jockeying for power in Pakistan.

The anti India agenda is the core of Pak politics. They have used US and now they are using China.

However, Pakistan is at the cross roads.

They have alienated the US for reasons that is so obvious that it requires no elaboration. And now they are upsetting China because they are being unable to control the influx of insurgents in Xinjaing.

The unfortunate part of Pakistan, is that while the wanted to ensure no Hindu majority to impede the rise of Muslims of the sub continent, they failed miserably in this pursuit. They then added the tack to be the supreme leader of the Islamic world with the nuclear bomb and spawning terrorists calling them euphemistically as Mujahideen and Taliban and they too has backfired.

One should pity them!

[davidbfpo]

An article based on a PBS Frontline broadcast two days ago, with lots of details:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/afghanistan-pakistan/david-headley/new-evidence-of-pakistans-role-in-the-mumbai-attacks/

It will be a long time before the accused appears in an Indian criminal court and the allegations are tested Indian style.

Interesting commentary on Saudi Arabia first:
For the last two years, Ansari lived in Saudi Arabia, where he had been “talent spotting” for another “massive attack,” an official with New Delhi’s antiterrorist police unit told Reuters, though he did not specify whether India was the target.

and second:
Saudi assistance in turning over Ansari would be unusual because Saudi Arabia and India are not natural partners, according to ex-CIA analyst Bruce Riedel. “I’m puzzled by why the Saudis would do this, but it would make sense if they were being pushed by the U.S. and other countries who want Lashkar put out of business,” he told FRONTLINE.

[Ray]

He will sing like a canary! ;) :)

Another one Fasih is coming in thanks to a nudge nudge wink wink from the US.

[Ray]

Key 26/11 conspirator Abu Jundal arrested at IGI airport in Delhi

http://www.readability.com/read?url=http%3A//ibnlive.in.com/news/key-2611-conspirator-abu-hamza-arrested-in-delhi/267741-3.html

[blueblood]

David:

Allow me a bit of chauvinism but I think a big part of it is that the average western street cops are just better and will react to contain the situation without any central direction.

Yes, they definitely are but then again money talks. The budget of NYPD alone is more than the combined budget of two of the largest paramilitaries of India i.e., CRPF and BSF. Jurisdiction of NYPD is tri state area and has ~35,000 employees.

On the other hand BSF guards the nearly 7500 kms of border and CRPF's jurisdiction is entire India and have a total of 550,000 employees. And trust me these are the "well funded" agencies. Salary of a NYPD police officer (corporal) is more than 4 times than that of an Indian Assistant Supritendent (Captain equivalent).

Now you do the math.

[Bill Moore]

Blueblood I agree, but I think advantage diminishes rapidly when you move to mid and small sized towns. NYC and LA police among others have incredible capabilities, but they don't represent most cities and towns.

[blueblood]

Blueblood I agree, but I think advantage diminishes rapidly when you move to mid and small sized towns. NYC and LA police among others have incredible capabilities, but they don't represent most cities and towns.

Not likely Bill. I compared "well funded" police forces of both countries. Smaller police forces of US are equally well equipped while the weapon of choice of Indian police in smaller cities is a wooden cane and at the most a Lee-Enfield of the 1960's vintage. More than 80 percent of police members have never operated an automatic rifle. There were CCTV videos of CST, the Mumbai railway station where the initial onslaught took place. Many Railway police constables ran away as they had no weapons. Those who had tried to return the fire but they too jammed since they haven't been used and cleaned since god knows when.

The West jumped the gun when they criticized the performance of NSG during the whole fiasco. People were comparing them with the past performances of American SWATs, GIGN, GSG9 and whatnot, but how many of these forces have faced situation identical to this. These were not some teenagers attacking a high school. They were trained by ISI and SSG(N) and had more tech than your average jihadi.

NSG did more live room clearing drills with hostages inside in less than 48 hours than many forces did in their lifetimes. The attack was deemed as India's 9/11 and so it was. Complete breakdown of the security apparatus.

American SWATs though very well trained are not designed to react to the scale NSG is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Black_Thunder#cite_note-5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_Missions

I was dumbfounded when I first saw this show. SWAT members of smaller cities were demolishing the SEALs, Green berets, Deltas and Marines Recons.

[parvati]

Questions are being raised surrounding the sudden and secret hanging of Kasab in India.

From International Business Times India:
Ajmal Kasab a Victim of Dengue or Was He Hanged till Death? Soon after the news of Mohammed Ajmal Kasab's hanging was announced, several people started raising questions about the government's secrecy over his execution. While several people, including the victims' families supported the decision, many have raised doubts on the social networking sites asking whether the terrorist was actually hanged or he died of dengue.

The rumor of Kasab dying of dengue has become a hot topic of discussion on Twitter.

Excerpt From OneIndia News:


Mumbai, Nov 21: The swiftness and secrecy in which the execution of Pakistani terrorist Ajmal Kasab took place have come as a surprise to many. People are wondering why so much secrecy was maintained before hanging Kasab? Kasab was hanged till death at Yerwada jail in Pune around 7.30 am on Wednesday, Nov 21. Kasab, who was held in Mumbai's Arthur Road jail, was then moved to Pune's Yerwada prison."We kept secrecy. It was important to maintain secrecy in this matter," Shinde said, adding that Pakistan had been informed of the execution.

[davidbfpo]

Personally I have no problem with India's decision to execute this man, who gunned down many innocents at Mumbai's railway station, nearly four years ago.

The BBC's local reporter, in a good report, noted that:
many believe, the government, beset by allegations of scandal and inaction, timed the execution perfectly.

It came a day before the beginning of the winter session of the parliament, where it's primed to face a noisy and tough opposition. It also came five days before the fourth anniversary of the attacks when the main opposition BJP would have almost certainly reminded the government of its "failure" to execute Qasab.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20422270

Some of the victim's reaction are in another BBC article; this says it all:
...the sense that someone has been finally held accountable for the deaths makes the sense of injustice slightly more bearable than before.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20423470

A comment on the Indian Twitter surge:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20426516 and the Indian press reaction:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20440455

[parvati]

Sir,

The Dengue issue is all over the Indi-Pak mainstream(very mainstream) and social media. I think the Indian Government should not have done it in secrecy given South Asia's propensity towards conpiracy theories.

From the Indian Defense Forum:http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/politics-society/44142-ajmal-kasab-hanged-death.html


Kasab died due to high BP and cholesterol, thanks to all the rich food served to him. After he was found dead, they hanged his dead body just to show that he did not die due to natural causes!

Nonetheless- one less terrorist on this planet, and it was long due!!!

[davidbfpo]

This anniversary has just passed (26th November 2008) and led to some local commentary. There is a short article in The Times Of India by Vappala Balachandran:http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-11-26/mumbai/35366081_1_coastal-security-mumbai-police-police-response

It opens with:
Security breaches can be prevented only through a combination of measures in which mental anticipation of the possible situation is cardinal.

The US security machinery's pre-9 /11 lapses were described as 'failures in imagination, policy, capabilities and management' by the Kean-Hamilton commission. Despite intelligence alerts since 2006 that a seaborne commando attack on multiple targets in Mumbai was likely, our resistance capacity was not strengthened.

The author has written a longer article for an Indian magazine, Defence & Security Alert, which is not linked on the Web; it is too big to use an attachment, so PM me if required with an email address.

[blueblood]

26/11 villain Ajmal Kasab hanged, Pak stops journalists from entering his village

Pakistani national Ajmal Kasab, the sole surviving terrorist of the Mumbai terror attack of November 26, 2008, was hanged in a Pune jail at 7.30 am on Wednesday, after his mercy plea was rejected by President Pranab Mukherjee earlier this month.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Mumbai/26-11-villain-Ajmal-Kasab-hanged-Pak-stops-journalists-from-entering-his-village/Article1-962152.aspx


What's disappointing is the western media's use of tag of gunman instead of terrorist and even more disappointing is the Pak media's tag of accused despite the CCTV footage and the confession.

Anyhow, it's better late than never.

[SWJ Blog]

For Mumbai, Justice If Not Peace (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/for-mumbai-justice-if-not-peace)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/for-mumbai-justice-if-not-peace) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

This academic study was published in March 2011, with the title 'Information control and terrorism: Tracking the Mumbai terrorist attack through twitter' and was discovered via Twitter today!

The study is behind a paywall:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10796-010-9275-8

So here is the blog comment, first the author's bio:
Patrick Meier (PhD) is an internationally recognized thought leader on the application of new technologies for crisis early warning, humanitarian response and resilience.

It starts with, my emphasis:
Those who are still sceptical about the value of Twitter for real-time situational awareness during a crisis ought to ask why terrorists likely think otherwise. In 2008, terrorists carried out multiple attacks on Mumbai in what many refer to as the worst terrorist incident in Indian history. This study, summarized below, explains how the terrorists in question could have used social media for coordination and decision-making purposes.

The study concluded, in part:
...we conclude that the Mumbai Twitter page indirectly contributed to enhancing the situational awareness level of Mumbai terrorists, although we cannot exclude the possibility of its direct contribution as well....Because terrorists’ political goals function as interpretative filters to process situational information, understanding of adversaries’ political goals may reduce costs for security operation teams to monitor and decide which tweets need to be controlled.

Link:http://irevolution.net/2013/02/14/terrorists-used-twitter/

Ah, controlling tweets - now there is a dilemma. I do not understand the technology, but know a tweet can be withdrawn and the system can hinder activity. One wonders if anyone has thought through an operating protocol. Plus I assume Twitter is not the only provider.

[Red Rat]

Social Media is becoming a significant factor in real time situational awareness:

Ushahidi (http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/apr/07/ushahidi-crowdmap-kenya-violence-hague) is a good example of the potential and Google is experimenting with the same concept.

The ability to monitor near real time social media feeds for content is also spreading, again looking at Kenya: Umati (http://mediasourceafrica.com/article/view/1283/kenya-umati-online-media-monitoring-project-releases-october-2012-initial-results#.URQjkVpxfbA)

[davidbfpo]

From an observer of the social media scene, with my emphasis:
The use of Social Media for Situational Awareness is a real issue and here is some evidence to back up what was suspected. I think the authorities are somewhat slow in thinking about the implications of this. I am just starting to see some interest from the commercial risk management sector but there needs to be much more momentum here. We are clearly somewhat behind the bad guys.

[AdamG]

Yoo hoo. See also
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=144889&postcount=46

[davidbfpo]

The BIJ return with a lengthy article asking 'Four Disturbing Questions About the Mumbai Terror Attack':http://www.propublica.org/article/four-disturbing-questions-about-the-mumbai-terror-attack


Q. Why doesn't Pakistan capture Sajid Mir?
Q. What was the full extent of the role of Pakistani intelligence in Mumbai?
Q. What risk does Lashkar-e-Taiba pose in the future?
Q. Why didn't U.S. authorities stop Headley sooner?

It ends with a lawyer's quote:
Headley proved that for all our changes in security, we are not much safer.....It was too easy. When the real big bad terrorist showed up, no one saw him.

[omarali50]

Psyops in Pakistan seem to be determined to make hay with a stupid Indian newspaper headline. This may not be smart..

http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/07/16/indian-officer-claims-another-officer-claimed-india-organized-mumbai-attacks/

[omarali50]

http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/07/16/indian-officer-claims-another-officer-claimed-india-organized-mumbai-attacks/

Above link updated with explanation of sorts

[Ray]

Psyops in Pakistan seem to be determined to make hay with a stupid Indian newspaper headline. This may not be smart..

http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/07/16/indian-officer-claims-another-officer-claimed-india-organized-mumbai-attacks/

That is rich.

Maybe the officer could explain how Hafeez Saeed and the LeT are part of the Indian intelligence!

The man is said to be on vendetta to get to some officers of his organisation who have, as per him, not given him a fair deal.

And then there is a whole lot of politics.

This is an election year.

The Govt has performed dismally to include total looting by Ministers including possibly the 'honest' Prime Minister (or helping his mentor) and so it has to organise issues that diverts the attention.

The simple question is that how does it help India to organise terrorism against itself?

Indeed, if it does, what are the motivations to do it?

Destabilise India and for who? Foreign interests?

Too outlandish to feel India is controlled by foreign interests.

And if it is true, then let us once again be a colony so that we know where we stand!

[omarali50]

(http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/11/26/mumbai-attacks-2008/)

[davidbfpo]

A NYT piece on the information and intelligence before the Mumbai attacks. A choice passage:
What happened next may rank among the most devastating near-misses in the history of spycraft. The intelligence agencies of the three nations did not pull together all the strands gathered by their high-tech surveillance and other tools, which might have allowed them to disrupt a terror strike so scarring that it is often called India’s 9/11.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/22/world/asia/in-2008-mumbai-attacks-piles-of-spy-data-but-an-uncompleted-puzzle.html?emc=edit_ee_20141222&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67232673&_r=1

Many insights are within the article and rightly an Indian politician ends with:
The key is the analysis, we didn’t have it.

[omarali50]

But isnt this a bit of "grabbing the wrong end of the stick"? Modern intelligence gathering generates more data than can possibly be analyzed in real time by human analysts. The biggest problem is not that the human analyst did not pick up X out of all random bits; it is that the human analysts did not have a good idea of where they should have been looking most carefully.
That does not imply a fixed set of priorities, but it does mean having a constantly updated model that captures where the biggest problems are likely to come from.
In this case, it does not seem that neither Western analysts or Indian ones were fully awake to the possibilities.
Of course there will be surprises. But at that point, should this have been such a total surprise?
I dont know. I am not an intelligence analyst. But those who are: what do you think? in retrospect, should it have been such a shock?

[omarali50]

btw, another judgement in Lakhvi's favor.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1153831/ihc-orders-conditional-release-of-mumbai-attacks-mastermind

Being a Pakistani, I tend to suspect that "the fix is in" (i.e. the US and the GOP have agreed that low level Kashmir Jihad is the best option to siphon off various explosive young men who might otherwise explode in more sensitive locations), but what do more rationally trained people think? Happenstance? Coincidence? or enemy action?

[davidbfpo]

A sharp review by Adrian Levy, a UK-based investigative journalist in an Indian website; entitled 'Despite Headley’s Warning, U.S. Prioritised Capturing Bin Laden Over Saving Mumbai'. Leaving aside Headley (who was eventually convicted in the USA) there are other aspects.

A stinging last paragraph:
Of course the US did not carry out 26/11. And it would be wrong to accuse Western security agencies of even having exacerbated it. Criminal killers did that. But what Western governments and their agencies did do was —of course –act in their own naked self interest, elevating the targeting of Osama bin Laden, over the threat to Mumbai, an insight into the real world of hard knocks, where special relationships are no replacement for rigorous National Security.
Link:https://sniwire.com/despite-headleys-warning-us-prioritised-capturing-bin-laden-over-saving-mumbai/

[davidbfpo]

He is a "lurker" and starts with:
My analysis, from different angles, on whether we are prepared to face a similar attack like 26/11.

In the 'Indian Express': 'Securing India- A decade after 26/11 terrorist methodology has changed, state response remains woefully same.'
Link:https://indianexpress.com/article/26-11/stories-of-strength/26-11-anniversary-mumbai-attacks-maharashtra-securing-india-5464060/

In 'The Tribune': 'So it may never happen again..Centre-State synergy is needed between police and Intel agencies to combat terror.'
Link:https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/so-it-may-never-happen-again/688820.html

From 'The Mint: 'India is not better prepared than 2008'
Link:http://https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hmnrvCOpFhe25VT2DiWutJ/Opinion--India-is-not-better-prepared-than-2008.html

He "pulls no punches" and what has not happened is a national political decision to simply "stay calm and carry on as normal".

[davidbfpo]

Two articles, one by the LeT expert, Stephen Tankel via WoTR and the otehr by ProPublica retuirns - as Stephen - does to the lack of any penalty for Pakistani's role in the attack.

Stephen's last passage:
India executed Kasab in late November 2012, almost four years to the day after the Mumbai attacks began. U.S. authorities arrested David Headley, the Pakistani-American who conducted reconnaissance for the attacks, in the United States, where he is currently in prison. But their leaders in Lashkar-e-Taiba and the ISI handlers supporting them got away pretty much scot-free. The Pakistani authorities charged seven of the group’s members, including the group’s second-in-command, in connection with the attacks. Not surprisingly, none were convicted in Pakistani courts, or extradited to India. All are back on the street. The ISI handlers who supported the attack reportedly moved on (https://www.propublica.org/article/four-disturbing-questions-about-the-mumbai-terror-attack) to other assignments. Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders not only remain at large. They and the group their organization arguably have more influence in Pakistan than ever before.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2018/11/ten-years-after-mumbai-the-group-responsible-is-deadlier-than-ever/

Link:https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-pakistan-lashkar-e-tayyiba-2008-mumbai-attack