An RFI concerning Game Theory and “Wicked Problems”

[RedRaven]

I just recently started reading “The Compleat Strategyst” from Rand. Now “Conflict Resolution in Small Wars: …” and “Game Theory: … Afghanistan's Problems?” popped up on SWJ.

This is a whole new set of ideas for me that I hadn’t even realized existed (outside of The Prisoner’s Dilemma in ECON 101). Can the Council suggest other reading material on the subject?

Thanks

[drewconway]

The application of game theory to micro-level conflicts, I think, is a open and burgeoning research area. There are, however, some outstanding pieces currently out there:

The Political Economy of Terrorism - Enders and Sandler (http://www.amazon.com/Political-Economy-Terrorism-Walter-Enders/dp/0521616506)

The Logic of Political Survival - BDM, et al (http://www.amazon.com/Logic-Political-Survival-Bruce-Mesquita/dp/0262524406/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1237848452&sr=1-3)

David Laitin's [Stamford] work on civil war (http://politicalscience.stanford.edu/faculty/laitin.html)

The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization - Beuno de Mesquita and Dickson (http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/faculty/dickson/dickson_propaganda.pdf)

If I think of more I will add them, great question!

[J Wolfsberger]

I'd recommend The Strategy of Conflict (http://www.amazon.com/Strategy-Conflict-Thomas-C-Schelling/dp/0674840313/ref=sr_1_33?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237903324&sr=1-33), by Thomas C. Schelling. It's been my standard reference/source on the subject since publication in the early 1980s. (BTW: He was co-winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2005.)

If you want more mathematical rigor, I'd recommend Introduction To Operations Research (http://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Operations-Research-Frederick-Hillier/dp/0078414474/ref=sr_oe_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237903794&sr=1-1), by Frederick S. Hillier and Gerald J. Lieberman. It's pretty much been the standard since the early 1970s. (Currently in eighth edition.)

[Van]

And if sigma notation makes you break out in sweats and trembling (as it does me), I would recommend "Game Theory: A Nontechnical Introduction (http://www.amazon.com/Game-Theory-Nontechnical-Morton-Davis/dp/0486296725/ref=tag_sty_mn_edpp_ttl)" by Morton D. Davis. It is an excellent follow on to "The Compleat Strategyst" if you're not math savvy.

The choke point with apply rational approaches to decision making is that so many decision makers know what they want to do, and don't welcome alternative options. Rather than clearly different courses of action, they want the same course of action with different bells and whistles. Applying a rigorous analytical methodology to assessment of options only rubs it in their face that their chosen COA is flawed and that their decision process is questionable, and this is often a provocation to retribution.

Another issue is in dissimilar utility. If two players don't agree on utility of outcomes and especially it this is obscured, half of the moves will be used just to determine a working concept of what the opponent's standards of utility are. To complicate things, moves that are marred by mirror-imaging often make the situation worse, and create a more complex decision for the next move. (Look at the practices of GEN Sanchez during his tenure in Iraq, or the allegations of extraordinary rendition and how they aggravated the situation) This has been one of the longstanding issues in the current, protracted conflict.

[J Wolfsberger]

The choke point with apply rational approaches to decision making is that so many decision makers know what they want to do, and don't welcome alternative options. Rather than clearly different courses of action, they want the same course of action with different bells and whistles. Applying a rigorous analytical methodology to assessment of options only rubs it in their face that their chosen COA is flawed and that their decision process is questionable, and this is often a provocation to retribution.

Another issue is in dissimilar utility. If two players don't agree on utility of outcomes and especially it this is obscured, half of the moves will be used just to determine a working concept of what the opponent's standards of utility are. To complicate things, moves that are marred by mirror-imaging often make the situation worse, and create a more complex decision for the next move. (Look at the practices of GEN Sanchez during his tenure in Iraq, or the allegations of extraordinary rendition and how they aggravated the situation) This has been one of the longstanding issues in the current, protracted conflict.

"The Strategy of Conflict" is a qualitative approach. (No heavy math. :D)

It addresses a lot of the issues Van raises.

What? You didn't think that getting the results of an analysis acted on didn't involve a whole new, and different, game? :wry:

[RedRaven]

Thanks for all the info. I finished Schelling’s “Arms & Influence” about a month ago and found it really interesting. I think his “latent power” concept may go a long way towards explaining Israel’s latest Gaza adventure. So I will definitely pick up “The Strategy of Conflict.” Also “The Propaganda … and Mobilization” and “Economy of Terrorism” are right in line with my studies, so those should be interesting as well.


And ya, Sigma notation makes me want to go cry in a corner… :o

[Surferbeetle]

For background on the intersection of Science and Warfare I can't say enough good things about The Scientific Way of Warfare (http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-70078-8/the-scientific-way-of-warfare/reviews) by Antoine Bousquet. It's a treasure trove of references, tells a good story, and helps me to better understand the whys/social context behind my pathway through statics, dynamics, thermodynamics, and the Army.

The Cliff's Notes of the mathematics and engineering world has always been Schaum's. No fuss, no muss definitions and problems with both worked solutions and answers to help ensure that one understands the concepts: Schaums Outlines Operations Research, 2nd Edition, Richard Bronson and Govindasami Naadimuthu (http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?r=1&ISBN=9780070080201&ourl=Schaums-Outline-of-Operations-Research%2FRichard-Bronson)...Chapter 17 has Game Theory and covers Stable Games, Unstable Games, Solution by Linear Programming, and Dominance.