'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013) [Archive] - Page 2

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 01:30 PM

Oil is over $100/bbl and has been for some time... and still the government's financial position is weak? It would be interesting to know where the money goes.

Certainly that's trouble, and it's not trouble that any outside agency can solve. In fairness, I haven't seen anyone, anywhere suggest that AFRICOM or any other external force can or should try to solve such problems.

This should give some pointers:

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi yesterday stood his ground that the National Assembly spends 25 per cent of the Federal Government’s overhead expenditure.

But the House of Representatives panels before whom he appeared said the CBN governor had been feeding Nigerians with misleading figures, probably to spite the lawmakers.

The CBN boss appeared before the House of Representatives Joint Committees on Appropriation, Finance, Banking and Currency; and Drugs, Narcotics and Financial Crimes. He was invited to clarify his comment on the spending of the National Assembly.

http://www.nigeriannewsservice.com/nns-news-archive/headlines/sanusi-insists-lawmakers-take-25-of-n53626b

Then we haven't gotten to the amount embezzled by government officials.

Sub Saharan Africa is ripe for something like a French Revolution. What we are waiting for is a unifying ideology, a unifying theme, a set of ideas that can adequately channel the frustrations of 800 million people. To get to that point, we will first have to learn (from experience) about the futility of Islamism and tribalism.

The revolution will come, but it may take two generations to finally arrive.

The present state of affairs is not sustainable.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 01:54 PM

Having witnessed (even invited to watch) very similar cruelty to innocent civilians I can appreciate your concerns with the military in general. Even our military personnel are not perfect; although our system more than adequately takes care of such problem children. AFRICOM's training programs (actually the US Military's) is in fact aimed at those problems but is dependent on the host government to identify and request such training and maintain transparency. As that is nearly impossible with dictators we are back to square one.

Cruelty against civilians in the US military is not institutionalised. In fact, the posse commitatus law forbids the use of the military on US soil (National Guard does that job).

African armies originated from the British, French, Portuguese, Italian and Spanish colonial armies. The colonial armies were formed to keep the natives in check, brutally suppress insurrections and enforce the will of the colonial masters. Those traditions have been carried forward till today - the operation of the Nigerian Army in Odi (in the Niger Delta) in 1999 isn't very from Admiral Sir Harry Rawson's punitive expedition in Benin in 1897. Both towns were captured, burned and looted.

You can also see the legacy of the notorious Force Publique in the modern Congolese Army.

The African public will be better served if the US Government and US Military takes a firm stand against brutality against African civilians, instead either standing by or actively cooperating with these human rights abusers.

I've always admired the US Army and the concept of the citizen soldier. The British Colonial Army and its successors were not built on citizen soldiers. So if I have the opportunity to rule Nigeria, one of my ambitions is to mould the Nigerian Army on the US model (not the British).

Chowing

12-07-2011, 03:36 PM

Part 1 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/guest-articles/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspe-6.html

Part 2 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-2.html

Part 3 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-3.html

Part 4 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

Part 5 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

I just finished part one. Wow, I wonder what the reaction, if any, this piece got from military and/or government.

Of wonder to me was the comments following this first article. People took it as funny, and were amused. Not sure if they are amused at a soldier being beaten for not given much food (as in "they deserve it") or just the kind of embarrassed laughing that goes on when a terrible situation with seemingly no solution is recounted. Kind of a hopeless laugh.

tequila

12-07-2011, 03:48 PM

I've always admired the US Army and the concept of the citizen soldier. The British Colonial Army and its successors were not built on citizen soldiers. So if I have the opportunity to rule Nigeria, one of my ambitions is to mould the Nigerian Army on the US model (not the British).

Actually I would argue that the U.S. Army has traditionally not been made up of citizen-soldiers, but instead of professionals. Post Civil War and pre-WWI the Army was a small professional body augmented by volunteers as needed. Post Vietnam, the Army is exclusively professional. The closest thing to the ideal of the "citizen soldier" are National Guardsmen and reservists, but they do not in any way formulate policy or direct anything.

Stan

12-07-2011, 04:12 PM

Cruelty against civilians in the US military is not institutionalised. In fact, the posse commitatus law forbids the use of the military on US soil (National Guard does that job).

My Bad -- I thought we were referring to AFRICOM military on African soil.
There's obviously enough evidence to suggest that civilians end up in bad situations both at home and abroad by military.

And, BTW, contrary to popular belief, the Act does not prohibit members of the Army from exercising state law enforcement, police, or peace officer powers that maintain "law and order"; it simply requires that any orders to do so must originate with the United States Constitution or Act of Congress.

The statute only addresses the US Army and the US Air Force. Although it is a military force, the U.S. Coast Guard, which now operates under the Department of Homeland Security, is also not covered by the Posse Comitatus Act.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 04:14 PM

Actually I would argue that the U.S. Army has traditionally not been made up of citizen-soldiers, but instead of professionals. Post Civil War and pre-WWI the Army was a small professional body augmented by volunteers as needed. Post Vietnam, the Army is exclusively professional. The closest thing to the ideal of the "citizen soldier" are National Guardsmen and reservists, but they do not in any way formulate policy or direct anything.

But the U.S. Army is not responsible for internal security. The National Guardsmen do that.

Having said that, Americans understand that their military are not a separate class in a way the class obsessed British don't. The G.I Bill encourages US military personnel to attend college and interact with ordinary Americans. Many US soldiers are short service, they get back to civvy street after a few years.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 04:17 PM

Of wonder to me was the comments following this first article. People took it as funny, and were amused. Not sure if they are amused at a soldier being beaten for not given much food (as in "they deserve it") or just the kind of embarrassed laughing that goes on when a terrible situation with seemingly no solution is recounted. Kind of a hopeless laugh.

It's the latter, we have a way of laughing at misfortune. If we didn't our suicide rates would be sky high. There's more than enough in a days job to drive one mad.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 04:35 PM

Another soldier's story:

Many of us were converted to house boys, gardeners, babysitters, that is how some “soldiered” and protected the country. I recalled that on a particular occasion a particular soldier was instructed to fetch water for a particular captain who earlier on had instructed all soldiers on parade to stop calling me Charles. The reason, his name was Charles too, though I told him, he could as well instruct Prince Charles of Wales to refrain from being called Charles.

To return to the story, in order to fill the drum fast, Ayeni (the soldier) took along his girlfriend to assist in drawing the water. As soon as they emerged at the residence of the officer with the buckets of water, the officer’s wife took the buckets of water they brought and drenched both of them. The officer then ordered the poor girl out, instructing the soldier to start doubling. The officer's wife then also became the soldier’s officer. Nigeria my Nigeria.

http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/chukwudi-nwokoye/why-i-served-and-why-i-left-the-nigerian.html

Chowing

12-07-2011, 04:36 PM

Chowing

12-07-2011, 04:42 PM

Part 1 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/guest-articles/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspe-6.html

Part 2 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-2.html

Part 3 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-3.html

Part 4 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

Part 5 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

This was a very interesting insight into the day to day life of a Nigerian military man. Some of it was not surprising to me, but because I saw the corruption, I did not entertain the idea that life was tough and corrupt for the soldiers as well.

All over Africa, to be a soldier is highly esteemed. That is, one would love to have a stable job and some authority. The military fulfills that. That does not mean all Africans respect the military, that is a far different matter.

Stan

12-07-2011, 04:47 PM

All over Africa, to be a soldier is highly esteemed. That is, one would love to have a stable job and some authority. The military fulfills that. That does not mean all Africans respect the military, that is a far different matter.

You may need to take a trip to DR Congo. The only reason a person would love to be in the Congolese military is to have a firearm and extort and threaten the civilian population.

This, is precisely why most Africans don't like the military.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 04:47 PM

Chowing,

I have dreams. It is still a dream. It will be extremely difficult to actualise it in present day Nigeria.

But I can start small.

KingJaja

12-07-2011, 04:53 PM

You may need to take a trip to DR Congo. The only reason a person would love to be in the Congolese military is to have a firearm and extort and threaten the civilian population.

This, is precisely why most Africans don't like the military.

Stan is right.

Not only that, soldiers are treated like crap when they retire.

Tears and regret still envelope tens of retired military personnel who over the past seven years have been living under the Wuse Zone 3 pedestrian bridge in Abuja, while some sleep in the open space in front of the former Military Pensions Board, a few metres away from the bridge.

Majority of them are grey-haired and cannot forage for livelihood, they have resolved to fate, praying for their daily bread from passers-by and the generosity of non-governmental organisations and festive periods, when some good spirited individuals put smile on their faces.

They never bother about their families and friends, nor do they seem to worry any longer about life, as they seem now only to be waiting for the day when death will cut-short their sufferings and agonies.

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/city-file/city-file/29279-harder-times-hit-pensioners-as-tens-sleep-under-abuja-bridges

One of the reasons why soldiers extort and civil servants take bribes is because when you retire, you are on your own. Soldiers have the option of working as security guards at $200 per month (if their health permits). Civil servants are left to die or depend on their children.

KingJaja

12-08-2011, 01:31 PM

The US must carefully choose what it wishes to accomplish with respect to its relationship with Nigeria. It is not possible to do everything at once.

I understand how this plays into US domestic politics, but I am worried about the wisdom of this move, given how opposed the average Nigerian is to homosexuality.

Gay marriage: Nigeria, US in diplomatic row We’re free to make our own laws - FG

NIGERIA and the United States may be heading for a significant diplomatic confrontation regarding the issue of homosexuality, which the Nigerian Senate recently criminalised in line with the country’s long-time values, beliefs and widely pervasive resentment of Nigerians to homosexuality.

According to an online news organisation, Empire Newswire, the United States president, Barack Obama and the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, have taken critical steps to serve notice to countries like Nigeria, where homosexuality is a crime, indicating the readiness of the US government to diplomatically fight such countries on the matter, as if it is a human rights issue.

One immediate area that the fight may occur is in the US global funding, from which Nigerian civil society groups could benefit. The US government, sources said on Wednesday, would fund civil society groups in the affected countries like Nigeria where homosexuality had been criminalised to engage such government.

It was not clear on Wednesday night whether such countries like Nigeria could potentially lose existing US funding all together because of the homosexuality controversy. But agencies that Obama asked to implement the order include the US EXIM Bank and USAID, both of which have significant funding projects and assistance programmes in Nigeria.

At a formal press briefing on Tuesday by Senior US Administrations officials, it was made clear that “there are around 80 countries in the world where lesbians, gay bisexual and transgender status or conduct is still criminalised, so certainly, those 80 countries would be priority areas,” in the US diplomatic confrontation

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/32470-gay-marriage-nigeria-us-in-diplomatic-row-were-free-to-make-our-own-laws-fg

KingJaja

12-09-2011, 04:53 PM

I feared this would happen. The Yoruba ethnic group has responded to the threat of Boko Haram by parading its own militia.

A successful Boko Haram strike in South-Western Nigeria would lead to massive reprisal killings and maybe the beginning of the end of the Nigerian state.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pMwYxrRXkb0/TuHFROmj8mI/AAAAAAAAMp8/RrIaVQJ2Ai4/s400/539w.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fhvv-L5kwM4/TuHFb_B8gpI/AAAAAAAAMqE/fvTOXE3ouwk/s400/381533_10150523055400729_661120728_10974727_125532 7517_n.jpg

LAGOS, Nigeria — The armed militia marched unstopped through Nigeria's largest city, firing shotguns and rifles in the air in what they called a protest against a radical Muslim sect responsible for killings across the oil-rich country.

The demonstration Thursday by members of the Oodua People's Congress highlighted the growing sense of insecurity and widening distrust among Nigeria's more than 160 million people and its major ethnic groups. Men armed with shotguns, rifles and machetes freely roamed the streets of Lagos without a sign of police, while passers-by shouted that their region of Nigeria should be protected – rather than the country as a whole.

"We don't want them to fight here in our Lagos because Lagos is for everybody, not for Yoruba alone, but for everybody," said Chief Orebiyi Ebenezer, a militia leader. "We need peace here in Lagos."

The Oodua People's Congress is a militia made up of Nigeria's Yoruba ethnic group, which dominates the country's southwest. The party takes its name from Oduduwa, the ancestor of the Yoruba race, and formed after military ruler Ibrahim Babangida annulled a presidential election in 1993 that many believe a wealthy Yoruba businessman won.

The group evolved into a quasi-political organization and likely receives the implicit support of major politicians in the region, though its members have been implicated in political violence and thuggery. Rumors abound in Nigeria's southwest that the group maintains a stockpile of firearms in a country where those weapons are strictly regulated by law, if not practice.

Those rumors appeared true as about 100 armed members riding in minibuses and marching by foot came into Lagos on Thursday, home to 15 million people. They fired long rifles and locally made shotguns into the air, unstopped by police as they ended up at Teslim Balogun Stadium, which hosted FIFA's Under-17 World Cup in 2009.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20111208/af-nigeria-protests/

davidbfpo

12-28-2011, 06:51 PM

I am sure we noted the attacks in Nigeria on Christmas Day, on Christian churches, what I had not read was this is the second similar strike in a row.

FP has a reasonable commentary IMHO on 'The Rise of Boko Harem', which has some salient points which I don't think we've seen before: there was a Nigerian Taliban that disbanded in 2000, the role of Niger, Cameroon, and Chad; an attempt to negotiate in 2011 and the declining presence of journalists in the north.

On the AQ links a quote from ICG:
Supposed links to al Qaeda doesn't cover up the fact that Boko Haram is very much a Nigerian problem. It should be understood within Nigeria's own endemic problems.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/27/the_rise_of_boko_haram

tequila

12-28-2011, 08:19 PM

On cue:

Seven hurt as bomb hits madrasa (http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/nigeria-school-bomb-idINDEE7BR0AU20111228)

(Reuters) - Assailants threw a crude homemade bomb into a Madrassa in southern Nigeria's Delta state overnight, police said, wounding seven people and escalating tensions between Muslims and Christians after a spate of church bombings across the nation.

Six of the wounded were children younger than nine.

The attack at about 10 p.m. on Tuesday came two days after Christmas Day bombings of churches and other targets by Islamist militant group Boko Haram claimed about 32 lives in a coordinated strike that seemed aimed at igniting sectarian strife ...

davidbfpo

12-28-2011, 10:57 PM

Tequila,

Thanks for spotting that report and I noted the location too, Delta State.

It is a dangerous point in an insurgency and in a terrorist campaign, when the insurgent adopts a strategy that demands everyone chooses which side they are on and to help this inevitable savagery along attacks those people and institutions that have remained neutral. (I'm not sure whether Boko Harem are terrorists or insurgents, not being mired in definitions unlike some on SWC).

Yes the murders in Delta State maybe the work of an individual or the disorganized, so can be downgraded.

One wonders how Nigerians think today; they know far better than external observers what choosing sides can mean.

KingJaja

12-29-2011, 09:37 AM

As I said earlier, perception is more important than reality.

A Nigeria proverb says that "a child does not throw stones at an elder without the active encouragement of other older people". Southern / Christian Nigerians are convinced that certain segments of the Northern Muslim ruling elite are behind the "Boko Haram attacks".

This view may not be accurate but it does not matter.

As things stand, Nigeria may be one Church bombing away from full-scale sectarian clashes and much worse. The victims of the bombing were mainly from Nigeria's South East and Middle Belt.

An Iraq-style Sunni-Shiite sectarian crisis between Nigeria's Muslims and Christians is the goal of Boko Haram / Al Qaeda. It will devastate Nigeria and lead to the dissolution of the Nigerian state. Make no mistake.

KingJaja

12-29-2011, 09:44 AM

It is a dangerous point in an insurgency and in a terrorist campaign, when the insurgent adopts a strategy that demands everyone chooses which side they are on and to help this inevitable savagery along attacks those people and institutions that have remained neutral. (I'm not sure whether Boko Harem are terrorists or insurgents, not being mired in definitions unlike some on SWC).

Boko Haram have been known to stop people on the road, demand they recite the Quran or risk death. Nigerian Christians are not exactly known for being gentle. If Boko Haram succeeds in stirring the hornet's nest, Iraq will pale in comparison.

Chowing

12-29-2011, 08:12 PM

Exactly, Nigeria is on the brink of a terrible period of violence that they may not have ever seen before. I wish I could be more optimistic, but it seems Boko Haram can not only attack at will, but they have garnered a huge following. The Christians are not setting back, bombings have been attributed to them and the rhetoric of top evangelical clergy has turned stern if not fierce in the face of the perceived persecution. I wrote about this recently on my blog www.terrorisminafrica.com

Chowing

12-29-2011, 08:14 PM

There is a lot of accusations and calls to arms from Christians and Muslims on twitter over the past couple of days. I guess we could call that the chatter of things to come. Not looking good at all.

KingJaja

12-30-2011, 11:35 AM

Things are heating up (but the Western media doesn't seem to be following this very important story).

KADUNA – No fewer than 10,000 people marched in Zonkwa, headquarters of Zangon Kataf Local Government Area of Kaduna State denouncing and condemning the Christmas Day bombing of a church in Madalla, near Suleja, Niger State, where about 30 people were killed and several others injured.

The protesters called for a united action against terrorism, insisting that God had a divine purpose for creating Nigeria, and as such, the country must not be allowed to be destroyed by evil men posing as champions of religion.

Speaking after the three kilometre procession at the Zonkwa play ground, Chairman Zangon Kataf Council of the Christian Association of Nigeria , CAN, Rev. Sunday Ibrahim, said that God did not create man for another man to kill with satanic pleasure in the guise of fighting for God.

Said Ibrahim: “In Madalla, unarmed men, women and children were praying to God and were without provocation bombed. That was just one of the several terrorism acts carried out on churches by people who hate God and his children.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/12/christmas-day-massacre-10000-protest-in-kaduna/

Bill Moore

12-31-2011, 01:09 AM

That was just one of the several terrorism acts carried out on churches by people who hate God and his children.

He is intentionally trying to mitigate tensions, or provoke further violence with these words? He calls for peace on hand, and yet points out the enemy with the other.

tequila

12-31-2011, 04:12 AM

Things are heating up (but the Western media doesn't seem to be following this very important story)

It's Africa. The Western media has little interest in most things African, and thus devotes very few resources. Some 30,000 people have starved or died of disease in Somalia and Kenya since the summer with very little coverage despite the fact that many Western news orgs base out of Kenya and Egypt, if they have any African news bureaux left at all.

KingJaja

12-31-2011, 10:27 AM

He is intentionally trying to mitigate tensions, or provoke further violence with these words? He calls for peace on hand, and yet points out the enemy with the other.

Every word he said is true. Attacks on churches in Nigeria did not start this year or even this decade. It is a decades-long phenomena.

Sometimes, the only way to deal with radical Islamists is through overwhelming violence. (Islamists don't mess around with Sikhs for that reason).

KingJaja

12-31-2011, 10:54 AM

The influential Islamic group- Jama'atu Nasril Islam (JNI)- yesterday reacted angrily to the statement credited to the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, that Christians will henceforth defend themselves, saying that the CAN leader has, by his utterance, declared war on Nigerian Muslims.

But the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria (CBCN) disagreed with the JNI, arguing that those who have been bombing churches are the ones that have declared war on their fellow citizens.

The Secretary General of the Jama'atu Nasril Islam (JNI), Dr. Khalid Abubakar Aliyu, at a press conference in Kaduna where he spoke extensively on the letter presented by CAN to the President on the Madalla massacre, described the CAN President as "intolerant."

He said Pastor Oritsejafor's conduct was unbecoming of a religious leader.

The JNI scribe said: "He went right into the heart of Aso Rock Villa to threaten the government and to say whatever he had to say before the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He also accused the Muslim leadership, the religious scholars and other leaders within the Muslim community.

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/news/31694-chrismas-day-explosions-northern-islamic-group-replies-can-president.html

The rhetoric is heating up!

KingJaja

12-31-2011, 11:02 AM

A Niger Delta militant group, the Egbesu Mightier Fraternity, has claimed responsibility for the explosion in an Arabic and Quaranic school in Sapele, Delta State, which injured seven people yesterday.

The Ijaw militant group, which threatened more explosions, said in a statement that the incident was a reaction to continued Boko Haram killings in the North, climaxed last Sunday with the death of 50 worshippers in a Catholic church in Madalla, Niger State.

The statement, which indicated it was jointly signed by the group’s 'Revolutionary Council,’ said, ‘The Boko Haram killing will no longer be accepted and we are ready to equally kill any Muslim we see in southern Nigeria.

We gave this warning since October this year that if Boko Haram will not stop killing any southerner, we will also kill until they (Boko Haram) feel uncomfortable before we will stop killing; because no part of this country is constitutionally empowered to kill any Nigerian.’

The group affirmed that, ‘The Sapele killing in Delta State yesterday night was carried out by us (Egbesu Mightier Fraternity); even the ones of Warri and Sapele on the 8th and 10th respectively was carried out by us.

http://www.momentng.com/en/news/5703/delta-blast-its-reaction-to-boko-haram---egbesu.html

KingJaja

12-31-2011, 11:07 AM

Boko Haram yesterday reacted formally to the barrage of condemnations against its Christmas Day bombing, insisting that what it did was correct and vowed to carry out more attacks.

The Islamic sect, whose actual name is Jama’atu Ahlissunnah Lidda’awati Wal Jihad, confirmed in a statement issued by its leader Imam Abu-Muhammad Abubakar bin Muhammad Shekau that it was responsible for the December 25 bombing of a church in Madalla, a suburb of Abuja, in which at least 37 people were killed.

Shekau said in the statement written in the Hausa language and e-mailed to media houses by the group’s spokesman Abul Qaqa: “I am informing all Nigerians and the rest of the world that there is no doubt that we committed that act and God’s willing we will carry out further attacks.”

He revealed that the attacks are meant to avenge the “mass killing of Muslims carried out by Christians with the connivance of government” in northern towns like Kaduna, Zonkwa, Langtang, Yelwan Shendam, Jos, Tafawa-Balewa, and Numan, as well as in Shagamu and Ikoyi, Lagos in the south. The latest of such killings, according to the group, took place a few months ago on Eid el-Fitr Day in Jos, the Plateau state capital, during which non-Muslims cannibalised the burnt corpses of victims.

“We swear by Allah that we will avenge any form of injustice committed, being committed or to be committed against Muslims. This is just the beginning,” Shekau vowed.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/we-will-kill-again-says-boko-haram-blueprint-magazine

davidbfpo

12-31-2011, 06:54 PM

Albeit limited one:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16373531

Within the report:
Earlier this week, leaders of neighbouring Chad and Cameroon were reported to have held talks about how they can help prevent the violence spreading to their countries.

Chowing

12-31-2011, 07:43 PM

“We swear by Allah that we will avenge any form of injustice committed, being committed or to be committed against Muslims. This is just the beginning,” Shekau vowed.
This statement and the CAN official's remark that Christians "defend themselves" are not just rhetoric.
We have discussed in the Forum in the past that poverty and inequality in the north of Nigeria is at the heart of this problem. I was one (of several) stating that more needed to be done to address these issues, yet NOW amidst the growing violence how does anyone do anything except duck and cover or fight! Things are indeed becoming more dire by the day in Nigeria.
Neighboring countries need to be concerned. Nigeria's 160 million population could easily begin to spill across the borders.

Bill Moore

12-31-2011, 08:26 PM

We have discussed in the Forum in the past that poverty and inequality in the north of Nigeria is at the heart of this problem. I was one (of several) stating that more needed to be done to address these issues, yet NOW amidst the growing violence how does anyone do anything except duck and cover or fight! Things are indeed becoming more dire by the day in Nigeria.

Explain how poverty is at the heart of this? They state these are revenge killings, not killings over poverty, which has existed in Nigeria since its creation. If you think the root of it is competition over economic resources, then that isn't the same as poverty being the at the heart of the problem.

If you could magically improve everyone's financial status in two weeks, I suspect it would do little to alleviate the violence, since hate and revenge are strong motives for both the poor and the rich.

davidbfpo

12-31-2011, 09:56 PM

Bill,

In the FP Blog article I posted there is this paragraph, with my emphasis added:
The northern half of Nigeria is desert, making farming nearly impossible. Polio has yet to be eradicated there. Most citizens in the north doesn't have clean drinking water. Electricity is unreliable. Power fails multiple times each day. Economic growth there is non-existent. According to the World Bank, half of all Nigerians are unemployed. Seventy-one percent of young people don't have jobs. Boko Haram generally doesn't speak specifically about these issues, but these conditions make northern Nigeria ripe for extremism.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/27/the_rise_of_boko_haram?page=0,2

Boko Harem appears to be ideologically driven and have not - yet - "sunk" to the standard fare of politics, sharing the "cake". I concede Nigerian politics maybe very different.

omarali50

12-31-2011, 11:23 PM

Bill, I agree with your response.
But there may indeed be a way in which poverty and underdevelopment can be said to be deeply connected to such violence, though NOT its sufficient or direct cause (this does not excuse the Western media and intelligentsia's routine use of the "root cause" meme, since the everyday usage we see is almost totally misleading and usually falls in the category of "not even wrong"...its just groupthink of the worst sort). Anyway, here is the argument:
There is a correlation between economic development and social development (with very contentious chicken and egg issues involved; the relationship is not unidirectional). Socially and economically developed societies dont easily fall into mass disorder or permit free-lance killing and are not ripe ground for the growth of murderous groups like boko haram. Even when they kill in large numbers (first world war, second world war) they do so in an organized manner, usually under "lawful" authority.
A poor and underdeveloped society undergoing demographic transition (increased number of young people) with vastly better living standards visible yet out of reach, with modern mass media and education available to groups that are otherwise barbaric and primitive, such a place has to sink or swim rather quickly..if they are unable to generate some critical mass of development and successful social organization (or rather re-organization, as older forms are dying and new ones have to be built up before the whole ####house goes up in flames) then they are almost bound to see disorder and the rise of armed gangs.
What ideology organizes/aimates these gangs does depend to some extent on pre-existing cultural memes. It doesnt have to be religion; the violence can be ethnically based or can be mostly "criminal". But it can be religious too.
Where Islam is the existing religion, salafist-jihadist memes are available and tend to become the default option when more modern postcolonial arrangements fail (Nigeria, maybe Pakistan one day) or have completely crashed and burned (Somalia, afghanistan).Other "Islamic" or secular options are usually unable to compete with the ruthless and purer salafists.

In this convoluted sense, poverty and underdevelopment did indeed set the stage for hyperviolent Islamist militias to arise...This is not the sense in which this argument is usually deployed.
But THIS sense is not going to be reversed by parachuting in some aid groups. They will be eaten alive, or will become a hostage cash cow for the men with guns. Either the local salafists will have to eventually build up a society capable of modernizing (It will eventually happen, but how they can do this before they get into fights with all neighbors and even people further away is a problem) OR (more likely) some relatively ruthless local force or very ruthless faraway force will have to establish order FIRST, then development can follow. Since its a harder job for the "faraway force" (usually lacks legitimacy), its less likely to succeed even though they may have far superior technical skills and even moral standards. Better for it to be done locally.

btw, corollary: where the population is already split into Muslim and non-muslim, a civil war until one party cries uncle is inevitable if the existing colonial or postcolonial order stops working (e.g. Nigeria if it fails to improve things very fast). The only other option is for the muslim or non-muslims to escape to another country. This civil war is inevitable because Salafist Islam cannot peacefully coexist with a large non-muslim community except in a state of "balance of terror" or complete submission. There is no third option.the anarchy will invite organization. Salafist Islam already has a blueprint for such organization and already has a basis in existing folk Islam. It will appear and then it will fight. Not necessarily in that order. .

Not that Nigeria is necessarily going to collapse. Its probably stronger than it looks and the karma of British Raj is an amazing thing, see Pakistan...
Oh, and Happy New Year.

Dayuhan

01-01-2012, 12:05 AM

omarali50

01-01-2012, 04:53 AM

Poverty gets you a large pool of angry, frustrated, unemployed young men, which in turn is easily exploited by those who see violence as a means to advance their ends.

Of course it's easy to say that, but extremely difficult to do anything about it, especially for non-Nigerians.

Not only is it difficult for anyone outside of Nigeria to do anything about it, if they have mistaken notions of the problem and its solution, they are likely to make things worse...e.g., paying the elite and encouraging even more corruption and misgovernance. Getting in the way of things that may need to be done, encouraging things that may not be the best priority. Moral hazard and all that also come into play. See Pak army for details.

tequila

01-01-2012, 09:33 PM

Nigeria ends fuel subsidies (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/01/20121119555928543.html?utm_campaign=default&utm_source=social_flow&utm_medium=twitter) - this could lead to more deaths than Boko Haram.

Bill Moore

01-01-2012, 10:43 PM

Posted by Dayuhan,

Poverty gets you a large pool of angry, frustrated, unemployed young men, which in turn is easily exploited by those who see violence as a means to advance their ends.

Of course it's easy to say that, but extremely difficult to do anything about it, especially for non-Nigerians.

Every situation is different, and I suspect economic factors (to include poverty) is a factor in the total calculus of reasons people participate in violent acts, but rarely the cause and it is important to deleniate the difference.

I have been to talks by academic experts in the intelligence field (please pardon me for not recalling the speakers' names) that discussed the relevance of poverty as a factor. I heard two separate theories that sound opposed to each other, but on the other hand both could be correct.

1. When a person or group perceive that their quality of life is decreasing they can be motivated to participate in violent acts to address the perceived problem.

2. When a person of group actually increased their quality of life due to economic improvements they're more likely to participate in violent acts to make further changes. I can't recall the logic behind this one, so if anyone is familiar with either theory and can post links it would be greatly appreciated.

I think omarali50 captured by concern when he referred to the excessive focus on poverty for all conflicts as "group think". No analysis applied, it is just assumed, and that can lead to some dangerously flawed assumptions and subsequently the development of flawed strategies and plans based on those assumptions. In some cases poverty "may" be a driving factor, and in others poverty may just be present.

tequila points out
Nigeria ends fuel subsidies - this could lead to more deaths than Boko Haram.

Maybe, but this has been pending for at least a couple of years. They were speaking about this the last time I was Nigeria in 03. I agree it will lead to riots and maybe a few hundred deaths, but in Nigeria that is not abnormal. I think the question we should be asking is will this serve as a turning point or rallying cry for a particular violent group to further mobilize (sustained mobilization) the populace to fight the government? Only time will tell, but with the current national emergency measures in place, I can't imagine a worse time to implement this. I would recommend delaying it for six months if anyone wants advice from the cheap seats.

KingJaja

01-02-2012, 12:05 PM

Maybe, but this has been pending for at least a couple of years. They were speaking about this the last time I was Nigeria in 03. I agree it will lead to riots and maybe a few hundred deaths, but in Nigeria that is not abnormal. I think the question we should be asking is will this serve as a turning point or rallying cry for a particular violent group to further mobilize (sustained mobilization) the populace to fight the government? Only time will tell, but with the current national emergency measures in place, I can't imagine a worse time to implement this. I would recommend delaying it for six months if anyone wants advice from the cheap seats.

I guess I am the only person posting from within Nigeria. I am at Enugu in South Eastern Nigeria right now, and the removal of fuel subsidies has resulted in instant inflation.

In Nigeria, everything depends on petrol. We don't have stable power supply, so we depend on petrol-powered generators. Transport fares have sky-rocketed, the cost of foodstuff will rise, people are visibly angry and ready to explode. This IMF style "shock therapy" intervention is ill-timed.

Read Nigerians response on Goodluck Jonathan's facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/jonathangoodluck

It is interesting to read various analyses on Nigeria's problems, but this is no longer a time for abstract theories. The Nigerian street will speak very soon, and the World will hear its voice loud and clear. We know how Sierra Leone and Liberia ended up, and Nigeria is on that trajectory - if something drastic isn't done.

And neither AFRICOM nor all the aid agencies in the Western World have the capacity to prevent it. The battle is between Civil Society and Government.

KingJaja

01-02-2012, 12:17 PM

This threat, if implemented could lead to reprisal attacks in the South. Boko Haram is smart enough to take advantage of a weak and directionless government at the centre.

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — A purported spokesman for Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram has issued an ultimatum to Christians in the country's north and threatened to confront troops after the president declared a state of emergency in hard hit areas.

Abul Qaqa, who has spoken on behalf of the group blamed for scores of attacks in Africa's most populous nation numerous times in the past, said he was giving southerners living in the north a three-day ultimatum to leave.

"We find it pertinent to state that soldiers will only kill innocent Muslims in the local government areas where the state of emergency was declared," he told journalists in a phone conference late Sunday.

"We would confront them squarely to protect our brothers."

Speaking in the Hausa language common throughout the north, Qaqa said "we also wish to call on our fellow Muslims to come back to the north because we have evidence that they would be attacked.

"We are also giving a three-day ultimatum to the southerners living in the northern part of Nigeria to move away."

Boko Haram is believed to include different factions with varying aims. Its structure remains unclear and other people have claimed to speak on its behalf.

Nigeria's 160 million population is roughly divided between a mainly Muslim north and predominately Christian south.

Muslims have been victims of Boko Haram attacks, but a wave of Christmas day bombings particularly targeting churches set off fears of retaliation from Christians.

President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency on Saturday in parts of four states hard hit by violence blamed on Boko Haram.

KingJaja

01-02-2012, 12:46 PM

Presence of foreign troops could further radicalise Nigerian Muslims, warns influential Muslim group.

The Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) has advised President Goodluck Jonathan not to contemplate the use of foreign powers in resolving the Boko Haram problem.

MURIC, while noting that America and France have offered to intervene, pointed out that their involvement will complicate matters for Nigeria because they are not acceptable to all parties.

In a New Year message made available to LEADERSHIP and signed by MURIC’s Director, Dr. Is-haq Akintola, the group explained that the Nigerian nation experienced ugly and tragic incidents in the past year, describing the Boko Haram phenomenon as the most harrowing.

MURIC emphasized that one of the most damaging attacks of the sect was the Christmas Day suicide bombing at St. Theresa’s Catholic Church, Madala in Niger State in which about 50 people perished.

The group lamented that “this singular attack, heinous and reprehensible as it is, has the potential of igniting a religious war.”

http://www.leadership.ng/nga/articles/12179/2012/01/02/boko_haram_don%E2%80%99t_involve_foreign_powers_mu slim_group_tells_jonathan.html

KingJaja

01-06-2012, 12:09 PM

davidbfpo

01-06-2012, 01:18 PM

KingJaja,

I don't think the thread is dead, it may not have been updated, but has had numerous hits since creation.

Secondly I doubt if much of the 2012 Nigerian news has appeared in many SWC readers in-trays. I tend to rely on UK press and the BBC - which give sparse coverage of all matters African.

Finally to date Nigeria is for Nigerians, so we are all watching and I expect rather loath to comment too much. If civil violence escalates, especially if Westerners are the target that might change.

Stan

01-06-2012, 02:31 PM

I'm surprised that this thread seems to be dying when A LOT is going in Nigeria - a second terrorist attack in Northern Nigeria (six killed in a Church attack yesterday) and the fuel subsidy protests are gathering steam.

Having had very region-specific threads myself I can tell you that, you at ground zero, are the best qualified person for posting and keeping this thread on the wire.

I can certainly post links each and every time something from Nigeria hits the various Africa sites that I frequent, but I am not the one who will put the best spin on the story and filter out the truth from the journalist's jargon.

davidbfpo

01-07-2012, 11:33 AM

A BBC report on Boko Haram's latest incidents and a particularly carefully chosen target - from my faraway armchair:
At least 17 people were killed in Mubi in Adamawa state as gunmen opened fire in a town hall where members of the Christian Igbo group were meeting.....Residents told the BBC that those killed in Mubi belonged to the Igbo community from the south of the country. They had been meeting to organise how to transport the body of an Igbo man who was shot dead by gunmen on motorbikes on Thursday evening.

"It was while they were holding the meeting that gunmen came and opened fire on them," a resident said. Witnesses said gunmen burst into the hall and shouted "God is great" as they opened fire.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16442960

King Jaja,

Often when similar incidents have happened in the UK Muslim groups have publicly stated their condemnation and stood alongside the victims. Is that possible in Nigeria? Stan has referred to a long history of religious conflict and violence, I fear Nigerians of all faiths beyond that. Thanks.

davidbfpo

01-07-2012, 02:34 PM

An ICSR commentary on Boko Haram that concludes:
Consider here just one aspect: since the killing of its founder-leader, Mohamed Yusuf, nothing is known about its structure and chain of command or the identity of its current leadership. In other words, how are the security forces supposed to fight an organization it has so little intelligence on?

Link:http://icsr.info/blog/The-Scourge-of-Boko-Haram

KingJaja

01-07-2012, 08:03 PM

Often when similar incidents have happened in the UK Muslim groups have publicly stated their condemnation and stood alongside the victims. Is that possible in Nigeria? Stan has referred to a long history of religious conflict and violence, I fear Nigerians of all faiths beyond that. Thanks.

Not really the case here in Nigeria. The silence from leading Muslim figures has been deafening. An example.

Indications have emerged that security reports indicted the Emir of Suleja, Alhaji Awal Ibrahim in whose domain the Boko Haram sect had detonated bomb five times last year alone. As a prelude, the Niger State Government has issued the Emir a query, asking him to defend his non-challant attitude to the issues of bomb blast in his domain, especially the ones that affected churches.

The Emir might be the first casualty as the Niger State Government is set to get to the root of the series of bomb blasts that rocked his emirate in the last eight months. Not less than five bomb blasts took place in the emirate within the period, the last being that at the St Theresa’s Catholic Church, Mandalla on Christmas Day which left over 38 people dead, 80 injured 36 houses and 4 churches burnt in addition to the destruction of 7 vehicles.

On New Year’s Day, the state government issued the Emir of Suleja with a query over his lack of show of sympathy with victims of the bomb blast which occurred in his area one week before. According to the Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs who briefed the media yesterday, the government found out that despite the retinue of people that visited the victims and the bomb blast sites from across the country to show sympathy, the traditional ruler neither sent words to them nor visited the area.

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/features/newsonthehour/2012/jan/05/newsbreak-05-01-2012-001.html

The conventional wisdom is that leading Northern Muslim figures are either complicit or afraid. Neither is good.

KingJaja

01-07-2012, 08:25 PM

This event happened today

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria -- A radical Muslim sect attacked a church worship service in Nigeria's northeast during assaults that killed at least 15 people, authorities said Saturday, as Christians vowed to defend themselves from the group's widening sectarian fight against the country's government.

The attacks by the sect known as Boko Haram came after it promised to kill Christians living in Nigeria's largely Muslim north, exploiting long-standing religious and ethnic tensions in the nation of more than 160 million people. The pledge by the leader of an umbrella organization called the Christian Association of Nigeria now raises the possibility of retaliatory violence.

In the last few days alone, Boko Haram has killed at least 44 people, despite the oil-rich nation's president declaring a state of emergency in regions hit by the sect.

Speaking Saturday to journalists, Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, president of the Christian Association of Nigeria, vowed the group's members would adequately protect themselves from the sect. He declined to offer specifics, raising concerns about retaliation.

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/07/4169476/13-killed-in-attacks-in-northeast.html

Yet another killing.

At least 17 people were killed in Mubi, in Adamawa, as gunmen opened fire in a town hall where members of the Christian Igbo group were meeting.

They had been meeting to organise how to transport the body of an Igbo man who was shot dead by gunmen on motorbikes on Thursday evening.

"It was while they were holding the meeting that gunmen came and opened fire on them," a resident said.

More attacks on a church and hairdressing salon in Adamawa's capital, Yola, left more than 10 dead.

The attacks prompted state governor Murtala Nyako to impose a 24-hour curfew.

Security was tightened and troops were seen patrolling the streets.

KingJaja

01-07-2012, 10:17 PM

Traveled from Enugu in South Eastern Nigeria to Lagos in South Western Nigeria today, so quite a bit of this in person.

Nigerians of northern extraction have started leaving Asaba, Delta State capital in droves for fear of reprisal attacks.
The exodus started on Thursday following threats of reprisal attacks by southerners on Muslims. There have been renewed activities of the dreaded Boko Haram Islamic sect which has ordered southerners to vacate the North or face further attacks. Following the order by the sect, speculations had been rife that southerners would retaliate by attacking Muslims in the South.

Sunday Sun reports that Friday’s early morning attack on Muslims in Sapele mosque appeared to have given credence to the speculation. Despite Delta State government’s assurance to Muslim community in the state of peaceful co-existence with other religious groups, the northerners seemed to have taken their destinies in their own hands.
When Sunday Sun visited the Hausa community in Asaba, they were moving in droves packing their luggage in ‘Ghana Must Go’ bags. Their destinations upon enquiry were Kano, Kaduna or Sokoto. Chairman of Asaba Cattle Rearers Association, Alhaji Makuidi Ningi who spoke with our correspondent, expressed dismay over the seeming lack of security for Nigerians in every part of the country.

He said they now live in fear of being attacked regretting lack of police patrol around the metropolis.
Ningi confirmed that the exodus of the northerners from Asaba started on Thursday and that it would continue till Monday when the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) is expected to commence a nation-wide strike against the removal of oil subsidy. According to him, over 10,000 northerners had so far traveled out of Asaba as a proactive measure against reprisal attacks. Meanwhile, markets in Asaba at the weekend witnessed an unprecedented rush as anxious buyers trooped shopped in preparation for the work-to-rule billed to commence tomorrow as directed by NLC in protest against the removal of fuel subsidy.
They stormed the markets in efforts to stock-pile food stuff in their homes should the strike extend unnecessarily.

Meanwhile, southerners flee North

Thousands of residents mostly of southern extraction fled Damaturu, the Yobe State capital and Maiduguri, Borno State early this week following the January 1 threat by the Islamic Boko Haram sect to launch offensive against southerners in the north. In Damaturu, the Christian dominated Jerusalem ward known for its bustling activities looked like a grave yard yesterday as many of the residents who celebrated their Christmas in the city were compelled to leave when the news of Boko Haram threat filtered into the state.

Johnson, one of the residents who had earlier relocated his family in November last year after the November 4 deadly attacks that left no fewer than 100 persons dead disclosed that he had vowed not to return to Damaturu again even with the state of emergency declared by President Jonathan. The situation in Borno was not different as many who did not travel for the Yuletide had to pay through their nose as the cost of transportation shut up astronomically.
Meanwhile, the Boko Haram yesterday said it was responsible for the series of attacks in Damaturu, Maiduguri, Gombe and Adamawa, adding that it would continue to pursue its mission undeterred.

Abul-Qaqa, the spokesman of the Boko Haram, said his group was responsible for the Thursday and Friday’s attacks in Gombe and Mubi in Adamawa State where many people were killed. “We are extending our frontiers to other places in order to show that the declaration of State of Emergency by the Nigerian federal government will not deter us. In fact, we can always change our tactics…we can really go wherever we want to go. For peace to return, the federal government must release all our brothers that have been incarcerated in various prisons,” he said.

He said the attack in Mubi, Adamawa State was part of actualization of the ultimatum given to Southerners to vacate Northern Nigeria. “A group in the South threatened and started attacking northerners. The truth is that we would always confront whoever attacks our brothers,” Qaqa added. Sunday Sun learnt that there was exchange of gunshots between some assailants and members of the Joint Task Force (JTF) in Potiskum, Yobe State yesterday afternoon. Sources claimed the sporadic gunshots were heard around a police station in Nassarawa ward and St. Paul’s Catholic Church in Potiskum.

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/news/national/2012/jan/08/national-08-01-2012-001.html

Bill Moore

01-08-2012, 12:40 AM

KingJaja,

It has almost been 10 years since I have been in Nigeria, but I recall frequent mass murders and revenge killings, it wasn't unusual for 200 to be killed on any particular day on the Muslim/Christian front lines (especially Jos), and that news rarely made it into the Western media, at most as a foot note in a newspaper. While this does seem to have the potential to rapidly escalate, so far it doesn't appear to be above historic norms (or more accurately what is being reported isn't above historic norms).

The western media ignores a lot of global issues, not just in Africa, but in much of the developing world. In America it seems most of our citizens are more interested in a bimbo like Kim Kardassdian than major political and security issues, especially those that are not offered to them in a 20 second sound byte in the news. To make matters worse, when they do gain interest, it is largely based on group think (it is cool thing to do). College kids would protest our activities in El Salvador in the 80s, but when a reporter asked them where El Salvador was most didn't even venture a guess, and one suggested Africa. Obviously that doesn't reflect the reality of all Americans, but sadly way too many and the media plays to the majority

As David said it is hard to comment on what we're not seeing, so please keep the posts coming. I do have a couple of questions for you.

- Is this really worse than previous bouts of internal violence?

- How serious is the impact of fuel subsidies being removed? Despite a few protests, what has been the real impact (I realize it will get worse over time) up to this point?

- What can and should the international community do, if anything, to assist Nigeria through this crisis? I guess that implies we would support the current government, do the majority of Nigerians support the government? Is the government irrelevant?

Stan

01-08-2012, 07:33 AM

Kinjaja,
As Bill opined, it seems this recent escalation in shootings is well within the norms for the region. If we look at FEB - May 2000, the current levels of violence and the means are very similar.

In previous posts we discussed some of the forensics from post blast and we also discussed how slowly Nigeria was cleaning up its unexploded ordnance problems, and, the very poor ability to account for stockpiles. Combined, these indicators lead me to believe that Boko Haram has gain sympathetic support from the military and have greater access to military ordnance.

Your thoughts ?

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 08:39 AM

- Is this really worse than previous bouts of internal violence?

- How serious is the impact of fuel subsidies being removed? Despite a few protests, what has been the real impact (I realize it will get worse over time) up to this point?

- What can and should the international community do, if anything, to assist Nigeria through this crisis? I guess that implies we would support the current government, do the majority of Nigerians support the government? Is the government irrelevant?

This is much worse. This is outside the usual hot spots of Kano, Jos and Kaduna, this is more widespread and sinister. This is terrorism plain and simple. Suleja, Mubi and even Gombe are not the traditional hot spots of inter-ethnic / inter-religious violence (I was in Gombe in 2002/03).

When gunmen spray a town hall meeting of Igbo Christians or kill women at a local hairdressers because they suspect they are Christians or attack two Churches in different towns (Gombe and Suleja), you'll immediately realise that these are tactics straight out of Al Qaeda's playbook - (e.g. attacks against Shiite mosques and Churches in Iraq and Egypt).

Somebody wants to drive a permanent wedge between the Christian and Muslim populations of Nigeria. Someone wants a holy war. Osama bin Laden once commented that "Nigeria is ripe for revolution" - someone is taking him seriously.

The fuel subsidy removal is extremely serious. Nigerians now pay on average, more than Americans (Average cost per gallon in US: $3.28. Average cost per gallon in Nigeria: $3.50). If you consider that Nigerians need fuel to operate their water pumps, power their electricity generators (power supply is epileptic) and that Nigeria's GDP per capita is only $1,222 compared to $47,000 in America - you'll have a recipe for very serious social problems.

The Finance Minister is a World Bank alumnus - this also increases the skepticism and suspicion since the World Bank / IMF have a terrible reputation on the street.

A total strike has been declared, to start on Monday. Airports will be closed, power supply will be cut off and banks will be closed. The government of Goodluck Jonathan could easily be brought down and the conditions are right for a Military coup that could further divide the nation.

The international community should stop treating the situation in Nigeria as a footnote and international news media should spend more time reporting about it. That's about all that should be done. When the inevitable occurs (the dissolution of Nigeria), the international community should work to ensure it is peaceful.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 09:40 AM

In previous posts we discussed some of the forensics from post blast and we also discussed how slowly Nigeria was cleaning up its unexploded ordnance problems, and, the very poor ability to account for stockpiles. Combined, these indicators lead me to believe that Boko Haram has gain sympathetic support from the military and have greater access to military ordnance.

A significant proportion of the rank and file of the Nigerian Military is drawn from the Islamic North. So it is not out of place to assume that certain elements from the Nigerian Military and the Northern Islamic elite are sympathetic to aims of Boko Haram.

The view on the street is even less nuanced.

The president of the Christian Association of Nigeria has said openly that Nigeria is on the brink of a Civil War. The West may soon have to choose between the Islamic North and the rest of Nigeria. Christians and Southern Nigerians strongly believe that (a) the British are biased in support of the Muslim North and that (b) the US defers to Britain on Nigerian policy - i.e. the US doesn't have an independent Nigerian policy. On the other hand, the Islamic North strongly believes that West is out to get Muslims.

Either way, at the rate events seem to spiraling out of control, the choice must be made.

P.S: Emeka Ojukwu who led Biafra during the Civil War is being buried on the 3rd of February - a reminder that Nigeria doesn't have a future as a united nation.

Stan

01-08-2012, 10:03 AM

The Finance Minister is a World Bank alumnus - this also increases the skepticism and suspicion since the World Bank / IMF have a terrible reputation on the street.

A total strike has been declared, to start on Monday. Airports will be closed, power supply will be cut off and banks will be closed. The government of Goodluck Jonathan could easily be brought down and the conditions are right for a Military coup that could further divide the nation.

Don't take this the wrong way, but, there are very few African Finance Ministers that one could consider honest and the world bank is far too easy to negate. This seems more the norm as tensions rise.

I've seen about 1,000 Ville Morte in Sub-Sahara which often included dragging dead bodies into the streets, burning trash and tires, pillaging, etc. None have ever had the impact the opposition wished for and most of the time it ended with more dead civilians. Moreover, the military had a shopping spree with full anonymity.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 10:37 AM

I've seen about 1,000 Ville Morte in Sub-Sahara which often included dragging dead bodies into the streets, burning trash and tires, pillaging, etc. None have ever had the impact the opposition wished for and most of the time it ended with more dead civilians. Moreover, the military had a shopping spree with full anonymity.

Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast required foreign intervention. We are on the road to anarchy. Unlike these smaller nations, we are too big for intervention.

davidbfpo

01-08-2012, 11:42 AM

Under the headline 'Nigeria's descent into holy war' and sub-titled:
A wave of terrorist violence across Nigeria has raised fears of an alliance between the Islamist Boko Haram movement and al-Qaeda's franchise in the Sahara. Colin Freeman reports from the Boko Haram stronghold of Maiduguri.

Quite an extensive report and I'm citing in slightly edited format:
When The Sunday Telegraph visited Maiduguri last week, explosions and gunfire were heard during the hours of darkness. Pacifying the city has been made harder by the local hostility to the security forces, whose heavy-handed approach has won few hearts and minds over the years.
In 2009, more than 700 people were killed when troops fought a five day battle against Boko Haram followers which culminated in the capture of their leader, Mr Yusuf.

Last week, The Sunday Telegraph saw one street littered with burned out cars - allegedly set fire to by soldiers after locals failed to warn them of a bomb attack. Citing a local "They were angry because we did not give them any information, but if we do, the sect will come after us. We're stuck in the middle."

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/8999758/Nigerias-descent-into-holy-war.html

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 01:17 PM

Keep an eye on people like Toma Davou who want Nigeria to divide into separate Muslim and Christian states. That view is being considered by Christians in Nigeria's volatile Middle Belt and will be eagerly taken up by the South East and the Niger Delta.

A combination of the Middle Belt, Muslims and Christians in Nigeria's South West, the South East and the Niger Delta will have an absolute majority over the North. The view in the rest of Nigeria is increasingly that the North is a dead weight that contributes little to the prosperity, peace or stability of Nigeria.

When leaders in Nigeria's Middle Belt start advocating for a division of Nigeria, be worried. Traditionally, the Middle Belt has been aligned with the North, but two decades of inter-ethnic and inter-religious tensions have strained those ties.

I just traveled to South Eastern Nigeria, and while human development indices are low, one could see that efforts are being made to promote economic growth. A subsidiary of Walmart opened a supermarket in Enugu and a lot of work has been done to improve infrastructure. On the other hand, very little economic development is going on in the North.

We may reach a point in which the division of Nigeria into separate entities is the least worst option. However, I expect it to be complicated by Britain's extremely close relationship with the Northern ruling elite, who will naturally, be opposed. Boko Haram may push us to the point of no return.

Stan

01-08-2012, 01:42 PM

Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast required foreign intervention. We are on the road to anarchy. Unlike these smaller nations, we are too big for intervention.

Sorry, I may not have made my point as direct as I should have. I meant to say, that of all the general strikes I've seen in both large and small countries, you will not succeed in shutting down a dysfunctional and corrupt government. Only when you own the military do you have a fighting chance for change. Intervention did not fix Zaire and won't fix Nigeria. I concur, that foreign intervention is not the answer, but the size of the country has little to do with the equation IMO.

Last week, The Sunday Telegraph saw one street littered with burned out cars - allegedly set fire to by soldiers after locals failed to warn them of a bomb attack. Citing a local "They were angry because we did not give them any information, but if we do, the sect will come after us. We're stuck in the middle."

This then eludes that the locals were well aware of an impending attack and yet did not preclude the deaths and suffering of innocent locals. I fully appreciate not communicating with the government and military for fear of reprisals, but to let their own locals simply perish has me puzzled. It's that, or they really didn't know much of the impending attacks (which is my position).

davidbfpo

01-08-2012, 01:57 PM

King Jaja,

OK I'm not well read on Nigeria, but what exactly does this mean:
I expect it to be complicated by Britain's extremely close relationship with the Northern ruling elite..

I recall fifty years ago there was a UK national relationship with the North; all I can remember now are minor Royal visits, plus a RAF way-station / landing rights and some personal relationships from the colonial times. Why would the UK have such a relationship today?

If the UK has any specific national interest in Nigeria it is in oil above all else, then trade and stability. I doubt that our political elite have looked at Nigeria hard since the Biafra episode way-back in the late sixties.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 03:12 PM

This then eludes that the locals were well aware of an impending attack and yet did not preclude the deaths and suffering of innocent locals. I fully appreciate not communicating with the government and military for fear of reprisals, but to let their own locals simply perish has me puzzled. It's that, or they really didn't know much of the impending attacks (which is my position).

Why are you puzzled? That is the usual modus operandi of the Nigerian Army. They did it in Odi (in the Niger Delta), the did it in Benue State.

Reports reaching our news desk confirmed the massacre of many men in at least four villages in Benue State on Monday. These villages include Gbeji, Vaase, Anyin and Iorja. Our sources have it that men in army uniforms invaded these villages with about eight Armoured Personnel Carriers, summoned residents for a meeting at the village square. The men that showed up for the meeting were rounded up and executed. There were conflicting reports of the total number of men killed, some sources put it at several dozens, while others put it at over hundred. The massacre was apparently a revenge for the killing of nineteen soldiers in the same area on October 12, this year. The murdered soldiers were sent to quell violence between two rival tribes, the Tivs and Jukuns. The Monday massacre came the same day the fallen soldiers were given a state burial with full military honours.

The villages are reported deserted. Refugees are reportedly streaming out of the affected areas to Makurdi. They bring with them tales of horror, vandalism, and the rule of jungle justice. Summary executions, looting, shooting/burning of victims and homes, are reportedly the order of the day. It has not been confirmed yet if the men in uniform are legitimate soldiers on official duty, or a mutinous contingent. The government is yet to make an official report on the incident.

http://www.nigeriamasterweb.com/nmwpg1ArmyMassacre.html

The Nigerian Army is a colonial army at heart. This is what colonial armies do - they embark on punitive expeditions. In addition, it is imbibed in the minds of even the lowest recruits that bloody civilians are not human. The only people that are exempt are big men and their children

If you read the biography of the soldier I posted here, you'd grasp that immediately. The Nigerian Army always ends up being hated where it operates. My friends from Jos have major issues with the Army and more keen to see more of the Police and less of the Army.

Stan

01-08-2012, 03:22 PM

Kingjaja,
I am sadly too familiar with what African military do and how they subject their own countrymen to abuse. However, I was referring to the locals in the article that the journalist assumed knew of the pending attack and yet did not preclude human suffering and death.

Even as strange as the Zairois were, they did not subject women and children to pending attacks. In fact, when it was clear an attack was imminent, there were barely any locals (innocent civilians) about.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 03:44 PM

I recall fifty years ago there was a UK national relationship with the North; all I can remember now are minor Royal visits, plus a RAF way-station / landing rights and some personal relationships from the colonial times. Why would the UK have such a relationship today?

If the UK has any specific national interest in Nigeria it is in oil above all else, then trade and stability. I doubt that our political elite have looked at Nigeria hard since the Biafra episode way-back in the late sixties.

Do you really think that those relationships were abandoned after the sixties? Nigeria was ruled for thirty-eight out of the past fifty-one years by Northern generals and politicians. Most if not all of these figures are proteges of the Northern Muslim Emirs that Frederick Lugard so eagerly cultivated relationships with.

It is paradoxical that the British formed the closest relationships with the least progressive and least Christian segments of Nigerian society. But there are two reasons for this:

1. Colonial administrators found it easier to rule through Northern Islamic Emirs than Southern Traditional leaders. (The British also placed non-Muslim populations in the North under the rule of Muslim rulers - leading to decades of bitterness against the British). The British encouraged the Northern rulers to send their sons and subjects to the Military and discouraged the activities of missionaries. The result is that Nigeria's Military rulers were largely drawn from the North and very few Northerners were educated compared to Southerners. These boys, who went to Sandhurst, (Mons) Aldershot etc maintained and still maintain very strong ties with the British establishment. The architect of British policy towards the North was Lord Lugard (since early twentieth century) and since Lugard, the policy hasn't really changed much.

2. The fear of Communism: Northern rulers were seen as more conservative, more stable and less beholden to fancy socialist theories than their "uppity" Southern counterparts. That was the line sold to Americans, and Americans swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

For many years, you didn't have to bother with the Niger Delta to get the oil. You simply had to sign a deal with a Northern General at Lagos, Abuja or Kaduna and presto! the oil was yours. The Niger Delta only became a factor last decade. So the Brits, Americans and other Western Oil Companies were not particularly interested in forging links with the Niger Delta or the Nigerian South. That is changing slowly today, but old habits die hard.

Also consider that most of DFID's work is centered in the far North (there are solid reasons for this emphasis - lower human capital development indices etc), but this still raises suspicions that the British still favour the North.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 03:55 PM

In addition, when the late President Yar'adua was on his death throes, the only interview he was purported to have given was not on local media, or international media, but on the Hausa language service of the BBC!

This set suspicions running high, that the Northern establishment was in cahoots with the British to subvert the will of the Nigerian people. It may sound far-fetched, but it certainly did not pass the smell test.

The most important statements made by Northern politicians today are not carried by local media, but are said in Hausa on the BBC Hausa service.

Bill Moore

01-08-2012, 05:33 PM

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 06:25 PM

If and it is a big if, but if Nigeria degenerates into Civil War what will the impact be on ECOWAS/ECOMIL and how will that impact the region? I can't imagine this problem being isolated to Nigeria.

No Nigeria, no ECOWAS. The humanitarian impact is best imagined. A Civil War in Nigeria will destabilise the entire region from Cameroun to Guinea. Elements in Northern Nigeria could very easily destabilise Niger, Chad and Northern Cameroun. Elements in the Niger Delta could very easily destabilise Southern Cameroon. Elements in the West could destabilise Benin, Togo and Ghana.

The economies of Niger, Benin and Cameroon will be affected.

It is a nightmare scenario.

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 08:01 PM

Write-up in Washington Times. Written by Nigeria's National Security Adviser - Owoye Andrew Azazi:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/4/combating-a-common-terrorist-threat/

Terrorists from Nigeria have again turned the joyful celebrations of Christmas into a D-Day for premeditated mass murder. This year, extremists slaughtered worshippers in a church during Christmas services near the Nigerian capital and elsewhere in the country.

America is at risk for this type of violence. Two Christmases ago, a militant from my country - the infamous Underwear Bomber - tried to blow up an American jetliner over Detroit.

Nigeria welcomes the White House’s rapid Christmas Day declaration of support against the perpetrators of that day’s attacks, but we must stress that the threat emerging in our country is far larger and may be headed America’s way.

It’s time for a strategic security relationship between Nigeria and the United States.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation. We are blessed with more people than Russia or Japan and are America’s fourth-largest foreign supplier of oil.

In the past two years, a group called Boko Haram has wounded and murdered hundreds of innocent Nigerians. Many observers in the United States and Nigeria dismissed Boko Haram as a tiny, weak, even incompetent terrorist group that, at best, was aimed only at destabilizing our democratically elected president.

Nigerian Christians may not be adverse to a strategic security relationship with the US, but the Muslim population will object. All the oil is in the Christian South, so the choice may not be too difficult.

In any case, the US will be forced to choice between a Christian majority South and a Muslim majority North in the future (a bit like South Sudan / Sudan). This is just a taste of things to come.

Stan

01-08-2012, 08:12 PM

KingJaja and Stan,

If and it is a big if, but if Nigeria degenerates into Civil War what will the impact be on ECOWAS/ECOMIL and how will that impact the region? I can't imagine this problem being isolated to Nigeria.

Bill,

ECOWAS was supposed to create a common market and promote economic integration which would establish a free trade zone and reduce the prices of goods. Comparing that to say the number of complaints of the other 15 member states voiced against Nigeria together with Nigeria claiming to have lost over $5 million in annual revenues, I can’t see anything beneficial in even staying. If over 50% of the purported problems are contributed to Nigeria and Nigeria claims to just lose money in the millions, I can’t see much happening if Nigeria pulls the plug following social and political upheaval.

ECOMIL has always been a mixed bag but generally welcomed despite frequent reports of rape and brutality. Those instances however have plagued nearly every peacekeeping mission in Africa – so not much of a gauge. With over 3,500 troops in ECOMIL, Nigeria’s fall would certainly spell the end unless the UN propped it up with troops. Seems IIRC that was Nigeria’s fears way back when of a francophone dominance (return) in places like Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire.

I agree with Kingjaja - Cameroon will enjoy a huge humanitarian problem as well as already strained environmental impacts.

Hmmm, what to make of the estimated 25,000 Americans over there ? Pumping oil can be a risky business during a civil war :eek:

KingJaja

01-08-2012, 08:17 PM

Important paragraph:

We can destroy Boko Haram in its early stages, before it goes truly international. We don’t want or need American troops. But we would benefit greatly from American know-how and other forms of support as we develop our new counterterrorism strategy. We have much to offer through our own expertise, human resources and experience.

Stan

01-08-2012, 08:52 PM

Even more significant para: (http://homeland.house.gov/press-release/homeland-security-committee-report-details-emerging-homeland-threat-posed-africa-based)

2. Determine Whether Boko Haram Should be Designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO): The Secretary of State should conduct an investigation into whether Boko Haram should be designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization, in accordance with Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended. Following the Boko Haram attack on the United Nations (U.N.) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, we wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton calling for an investigation to determine whether FTO designation was necessary. In light of Boko Haram’s continued escalation, FTO designation may be required to provide our intelligence and law enforcement communities the tools necessary to ensure Boko Haram does not attack U.S. interests and the U.S. Homeland.

Reading between the lines, without being labeled FTO, little will happen.

General Andrew Azazi (http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/33422-azazi-rules-out-changes-in-leadership-of-security-agencies) emphasised the need for security awareness among members of the public and the need for public participation and cooperation with security agencies.

Are Nigerians willing to cooperate knowing that there will be reprisals before progress is even remotely evident ?

Dayuhan

01-09-2012, 12:37 AM

America is at risk for this type of violence. Two Christmases ago, a militant from my country - the infamous Underwear Bomber - tried to blow up an American jetliner over Detroit.

Nigeria welcomes the White House’s rapid Christmas Day declaration of support against the perpetrators of that day’s attacks, but we must stress that the threat emerging in our country is far larger and may be headed America’s way.

It’s time for a strategic security relationship between Nigeria and the United States…

We can destroy Boko Haram in its early stages, before it goes truly international.

I don't like where he's headed with this. It looks to me like an attempt to portray Boko Haram as an imminent threat that will invariably target the US unless support is given to the Nigerian government's efforts to "destroy" the group. I see no reason why Boko Haram would ever be concerned with the US, unless of course the US gets involved in Nigeria. The proposed "security relationship" seems to me more likely to provoke action against the US than to preempt it.

I'd like to see someone on the US side point out that unless the Nigerian government gets serious about investing oil money in the north and reversing the decades-old pattern of neglect and corruption that fostered Boko Haram in the first place, there's really no point in the US trying to help.

Stan

01-09-2012, 06:05 AM

Dayuhan,
Totally agree with you. Seems the good General is using his US education well and knows more about manipulating Senators than most Americans !

He also managed to rank Nigeria as the number 4 exporter of oil when they are in fact ranked 8 (out of 8). Not exactly on top.

One of the things I continue to wonder about with all this Anti-west is why have they not gone after the 25,000 Yankees ? I guess the short answer is drones - friends flying in from all over !

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 06:46 AM

One of the things I continue to wonder about with all this Anti-west is why have they not gone after the 25,000 Yankees ? I guess the short answer is drones - friends flying in from all over !

More than 90 percent of those Yankees are resident in Southern Nigeria. Barely any Americans live in the North. Trust me, if there were significant numbers of Americans in Northern Nigeria, Boko Haram would have gone after them - just like the Niger Delta militants made a lot of money kidnapping Yankees.

And nobody is really bothered about American drones when you can easily kidnap oil workers.

Second point, the good general is also part of the Southern ruling elite, he is Christian, so he doesn't have too many issues with either America or Israel. His article is laden with political manipulation; i.e. this is a golden opportunity for the Southern ruling elite to cement links with the United States using terrorism as a shared concern.

Also note that his remarks were published in the Washington Times, a right-wing newspaper. This probably suggests that the Southern / Christian ruling elite are beginning to work the Republican / Evangelical lobby in the US congress. (These are the people who read the Washington Times and take the opinions in the Washington Times seriously).

They also have the support of the Southern / Christian population and the Nigerian diaspora in the United States (which is also overwhelmingly Southern and Christian). I suspect that all this is being orchestrated by Nigeria's ambassador to the United States (Ade Adefuye), who is quite smart (he is a former college professor).

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 07:40 AM

I'd like to see someone on the US side point out that unless the Nigerian government gets serious about investing oil money in the north and reversing the decades-old pattern of neglect and corruption that fostered Boko Haram in the first place, there's really no point in the US trying to help.

The US will get involved, regardless. There is too much invested in the Oil and Gas Industry for them not to bother. Secondly, if the entire Northern Nigeria disappears tomorrow, it would have negligible impact on the US economy.

But the more important point concerns investment of oil money in the North. It is not accurate to suggest that the Nigerian Government invests more in Southern Nigeria than in Northern Nigeria. The hidden truth is that a sizable proportion of Federal funds are allocated to the North, but Northern governors are much less accountable or even competent than governors in the South.

For example, the budget for Kano State (in the North) for 2011 was almost $1 billion. In the African context, that is an impressive amount (bigger than total US aid to Nigeria in 2011). In addition, Kano gets more from the federation account than Lagos, but in Kano that money hasn't been put to good use. The human development indices are far worse in Kano than they are in Enugu even though Enugu has been receiving much less from the federation account than Kano since 1979.

The quality of governance at the state level counts. For example, in America no one would suggest it is entirely the fault of the Federal Government if Arkansas is much poorer Massachusetts. The same applies to Nigeria.

Some southern governors have very actively sought investments to spur employment and economic growth.

http://i1017.photobucket.com/albums/af298/ONLY1GAR3TH/Untitled-37.jpg

I visited this shopping mall in Enugu last Christmas and it employs at least a thousand people (mostly university graduates). This is significant in a nation where youth unemployment is so high. The local state governor pushed hard for that investment.

That is not to say that the Federal Government doesn't have a role to play in the under-development of the North, but the major drivers of local development are the local state governors. Even if the Federal Government were to double the amount invested in the North it wouldn't make much difference because Northern state governors are generally incompetent by Nigerian standards (which is saying a lot!).

That is why Boko Haram started initially in reaction to poor local governance! That fact is often conveniently forgotten.

There is an ongoing battle between the Federal and State governments to increase allocations to the states. That should result in more money at the state level, but given the antecedents of Northern governors, I'm not that optimistic that it would result in much.

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 07:47 AM

From the horse's mouth:

President Goodluck Jonathan has said that the fundamentalist group, Boko Haram, has sympathisers in government, declaring that the current violence is worse than the 1967-1970 Civil War.

Jonathan was speaking at an interdenominational service on a day three literary icons - Professors Wole Soyinka, Chinua Achebe and John Pepper Bekederemo-Clark - issued a joint statement asking Nigerians not to retaliate the sect's attacks.

"The situation we have in our hands is even worse than the civil war that we fought," he said at the National Christian Centre, Abuja, yesterday to mark the 2012 Armed Forces Remembrance Day celebration.

Although the casualty figure of the Boko Haram onslaught is nothing compared to that of the civil war, Jonathan said: "During the civil war, we knew and we could even predict where the enemy was coming from... But the challenge we have today is more complicated."

He said Boko Haram members and sympathisers could be found throughout the society.

"I remember when I had a meeting with elders from the North-east and some parts of the North-west where the Boko Haram phenomenon is more prevalent," he said. "Somebody said that the situation is bad, that even if one's son is a member, one will not even know. Some continue to dip their hands and eat with you and you won't even know the person who will point a gun at you or plant a bomb behind your house."

He added that "some of them are in the executive arm of government; some of them are in the parliamentary/legislative arm of government, while some of them are even in the judiciary. Some are also in the armed forces, the police and other security agencies.

That is how complex the situation is. Our security services are trying because as the president, I know what they are doing. Nigerians may not appreciate their efforts especially when you know that we are under-policed. We have a police force that is about 300,000 in number".

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 07:49 AM

The link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201201090012.html

Dayuhan

01-09-2012, 08:01 AM

this is a golden opportunity for the Southern ruling elite to cement links with the United States using terrorism as a shared concern.

Ruling elites around the world have fond memories of the days when the word "communist" was enough to unlock the US Treasury. It's hardly surprising that they want to see if the word "terrorist" can have the same magical effect. Hopefully the US has learned a thing or two since...

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 08:45 AM

Ruling elites around the world have fond memories of the days when the word "communist" was enough to unlock the US Treasury. It's hardly surprising that they want to see if the word "terrorist" can have the same magical effect. Hopefully the US has learned a thing or two since...

In Nigeria there are three words: "Terrorism", "Oil" and "Christians". These words are sure to get attention. The evangelical lobby will respond if the right buttons are pressed, AFRICOM (and its congressional sponsors) is itching to prove its relevance and the Oil and Gas lobby is bound to have a say.

The US is already active in the Sahel region and Nigeria would merely be a logical extension of that activity. The US has invested too much political and economic capital in "counter-terrorism" not to be involved.

If you recall how hard the evangelical lobby worked to bring South Sudan to the attention of Washington policy makers, you'd realise immediately that Nigeria has the potential of being a much bigger topic than Sudan.

The Southern Christian elite would be stupid not to pluck these low-hanging fruits. If you notice, they don't seem to be lobbying via traditional think tanks and the academia. They seem to be making direct contact with right-wing America (hence the article in the Washington Times).

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 09:29 AM

LAGOS, Nigeria—Normally bustling streets were empty as labor unions began a paralyzing national strike Monday in oil-rich Nigeria, angered by soaring fuel prices and decades of government corruption.
The strike's power became clear as the sun rose Monday in Nigeria's commercial capital of Lagos, where typically clogged roads stood mostly empty as trade unions set up informal roadblocks. Local gang members attacked cars of those still driving in spite of the strike.
More than a thousand protesters gathered at a public park ahead of planned mass demonstration, waving placards bearing an effigy of President Goodluck Jonathan with devil horns and fanged teeth and showing him pumping fuel at a gas station.
Gas prices have risen from $1.70 per gallon (45 cents per liter) to at least $3.50 per gallon (94 cents per liter) since a government fuel subsidy ended on Jan. 1 at the orders of Jonathan's administration. That spurred a spike in prices for food and transportation across a nation of more than 160 million people, most of whom live on less than $2 a day.
While lawmakers on Sunday rebuked the president's decision, the unions said they would continue their strike.
Bola Adejobi, 53, said he's protesting against more than just fuel costs. For him and many others in Africa's most populous country, the strike represents anger that much of the nation remains without electricity and clean drinking water after more than 50 years of oil production.

Not seeing any activity today. The normally bustling Lagos is quiet

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 10:21 AM

Just in:

An estimated 10,000 Northerners and foreigners, mostly from Asaba, Port-Harcourt, Owerri, Onitsha, Warri, Uyo, Calabar and parts of the South-West, have started arriving Northern Nigeria.

They are fleeing Southern Nigeria for the fear of reprisal attacks following the recent killings of Southerners by Boko Haram sect in the North. Those attacks upon Southerners have mainly been in such areas as Damaturu, Mubi, Jimeta and Maiduguri.

Most of the Northerners, who are principally artisans and menial job-workers, were seen on heavy trucks and luxury buses passing through Lokoja, Abuja, Kaduna, and Zaria onward to the rest of the region.

Other Northerners are being sighted along the Abuja-Keffi axis, Jos, Bauchi, and Gombe, as well as in Taraba State.

Some of them who are Nigeriens, are resettling in Katsina and Kano states. There is large Nigerien community in Katsina State, which shares boundaries with Niger Republic.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/thousands-northerners-nigeriens-chadians-arrive-north-southern-nigeria

Ken White

01-09-2012, 04:26 PM

It's a great benefit...

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 05:11 PM

The reprisal attacks seem to have started ....

Violence broke out in the Nigerian southern city of Benin during a nationwide strike on Monday over soaring fuel prices which paralysed the country with road, sea and air traffic at a standstill.

The industrial action follows a controversial government decision to end fuel subsidies from 1 January which has seen fuel prices more than double in Africa’s largest oil producer.

At least 10 people are reported to have been injured when protestors attacked a mosque in the city.

http://www.english.rfi.fr/africa/20120109-mosque-attacked-benin-city-nationwide-strike-grips-nigeria

Chowing

01-09-2012, 07:25 PM

In Nigeria there are three words: "Terrorism", "Oil" and "Christians". These words are sure to get attention. The evangelical lobby will respond if the right buttons are pressed, AFRICOM (and its congressional sponsors) is itching to prove its relevance and the Oil and Gas lobby is bound to have a say.

The US is already active in the Sahel region and Nigeria would merely be a logical extension of that activity. The US has invested too much political and economic capital in "counter-terrorism" not to be involved.

If you recall how hard the evangelical lobby worked to bring South Sudan to the attention of Washington policy makers, you'd realise immediately that Nigeria has the potential of being a much bigger topic than Sudan.

The Southern Christian elite would be stupid not to pluck these low-hanging fruits. If you notice, they don't seem to be lobbying via traditional think tanks and the academia. They seem to be making direct contact with right-wing America (hence the article in the Washington Times).
You are right on target. The terrorist threat is no longer just Boko Haram, but Christian extremists out to 'protect themselves' via pay back bombings. The violence and fears are accelerating, despite the lack of recognition by most of the rest of the world, including some people I respect on this forum.

Nigeria does not need outside military help. That will only aggravate the situation and prove to be fodder for Boko Haram recruitment. However, as you say, oil and conservative Christians have loud voices, often persuasive voices, in the halls that send US military on their next mission.

tequila

01-09-2012, 08:57 PM

Chowing

01-09-2012, 09:43 PM

Stan

01-09-2012, 09:56 PM

Sorry to say, you are right on, with both points.

Your resolution to the current impasse is then ?

When Christians fight back are they performing acts of terrorism or merely defending themselves ? Is pay back "bombing" a form of terrorism ?

Chowing

01-09-2012, 09:57 PM

Here is what I posted on another thread of the forum about a week ago. It is part of my predictions for terrorism in Africa in 2012.

Boko Haram will remain the most active terrorist group in Africa with its operations confined to Nigeria. Its operations may well ignite a widespread civil battle between Nigeria’s Christians and Muslims. The rumored involvement by the United States could become a reality if the oil rich Delta region falls into turmoil.
The full list and text of predictions can be found on my blog www.terrorisminafrica.com

It is one thing to predict something, quite another to affect a better outcome. Could we work on here toward some sort of a consensus on solutions?

I am pretty sure that the conservative Christians talking up the cause in Washington is not the answer, at least not the answer that would benefit the majority of Nigerians. This conservative left tend to be so anti Muslim that they will just add fuel to situation.

Would partitioning of the country, ala Sudan, do much for the majority? Of course, I am not talking about anyone from outside of Nigeria drawing the lines, as if that were even possible. Such a division seems to be part of the present aim of Boko Haram. They are headed down that path by asking the southerners in the North to leave.

Dayuhan

01-09-2012, 10:35 PM

However, as you say, oil and conservative Christians have loud voices, often persuasive voices, in the halls that send US military on their next mission.

Is anyone from the oil industry or the conservative Christian lobby calling for US intervention in Nigeria? I doubt it, and I don't expect to see it any time soon. The threat of US intervention is way overstated and pretty much nonexistent, IMO.

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 10:42 PM

I wouldn't worry overmuch about American military intervention into Nigeria. The aforementioned Christian conservative lobby will be much more interseted in defending Israelis by attacking Iran in the coming year than defending Nigerian Christians.

You forget that Nigerians are African, after all, and thus of very little interest to Americans.

I guess they can do more than one thing at the same time. The Christian lobby was instrumental (along with George Clooney) in creating and independent South Sudan.

You are also underestimating the links between Nigerian Evangelical preachers and their American counterparts and what the Nigerian diaspora could do if mobilised (the Nigerian diaspora is mostly evangelical and from the South. John Campbell a former ambassador estimated their strength at around two million).

If all out hostilities break out between Nigeria's Muslim and Christian populations, expect to see some intense lobbying on Capitol Hill.

Some Western academics like Thomas Barnett are also resigned to the inevitability of the reconstitution of African states along religious and ethnic lines this century.

America also prefers Islam-free oil when it can get it.

KingJaja

01-09-2012, 10:44 PM

I didn't mean American military intervention. No one in Africa is stupid enough to bank on it, I meant American diplomatic and intelligence support and support with materiel.

Dayuhan

01-09-2012, 11:32 PM

I didn't mean American military intervention. No one in Africa is stupid enough to bank on it, I meant American diplomatic and intelligence support and support with materiel.

Why would Nigeria need diplomatic support to manage a domestic conflict... and how would the US provide meaningful intel support in an environment where the Nigerians surely have far better sources and far more ground knowledge? Not that the US couldn't pass on any relevant SIGINT they come across, but I assume that's already happening. I don't even see that equipment would be a major issue, though the Nigerians will take it if we pass it out: surely the Nigerian military has the equipment to deal with Boko Haram.

What's lacking is will and the ability to face up to core problems. These the US cannot provide, and I suspect that enough Americans know this to make intervention unlikely.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 06:39 AM

Why would Nigeria need diplomatic support to manage a domestic conflict... and how would the US provide meaningful intel support in an environment where the Nigerians surely have far better sources and far more ground knowledge? Not that the US couldn't pass on any relevant SIGINT they come across, but I assume that's already happening. I don't even see that equipment would be a major issue, though the Nigerians will take it if we pass it out: surely the Nigerian military has the equipment to deal with Boko Haram.

Boko Haram isn't the core problem. Boko Haram is merely a symptom of the problem. The problem is the uneasy relationship between Nigeria's North and South and Muslim and Christian communities. That problem has always been with us since independence. It manifested itself in the Civil War, the 1993 election crisis, the Sharia crisis and now Boko Haram.

There is a growing clamour for a Sovereign National Conference to chart the future political architecture of Nigeria. The non-Sharia compliant part of Nigeria increasingly wants to have little to do with the far North, and Boko Haram is making their job a bit easier.

The partition of Nigeria in the future is inevitable and outside diplomatic help will be required.

When a sitting Nigerian president claims that the government and the security services have been infiltrated by Boko Haram supporters, what he is saying to the Nigerian people is that elements of the Northern Islamic ruling elite are fully in support of the aims of Boko Haram. I.e. Boko Haram is a tool in the hands of the Northern Islamic elite designed to destabilise the reign of a Southern Christian president.

Outsiders may not pick those cues, but we do.

Dayuhan

01-10-2012, 07:01 AM

Boko Haram isn't the core problem. Boko Haram is merely a symptom of the problem.

Either way I don't see much of a role for US diplomatic, intel, or material support.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 07:57 AM

Either way I don't see much of a role for US diplomatic, intel, or material support.

You think that the US won't have a role to play in the potential partition of a nation that produces 2.4 million barrels of oil per day?

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 02:44 PM

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — Nigeria's army says suspected members of a radical Muslim sect have killed two Christians in separate attacks despite an increased security presence in the area.

At least 54 people have been killed in recent days by Boko Haram, according to an Associated Press count.

Boko Haram says it has started specifically targeting Christians, exploiting religious tensions in Africa's most populous nation.

President Goodluck Jonathan imposed a state of emergency just over a week ago in parts of the country most affected by the feared sect attacks.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/army-muslim-sect-kills-1296500.html

A few points:

1. This incident occurred in an area where a "State of Emergency" was declared.
2. Christians were attacked at home.
3. Incidents like this cement the belief that the Nigerian security services are incapable of containing the threat of Boko Haram.
4. If incidents like this continue, a deep rift between Nigeria's Muslim and Christian population will develop.
5. Put yourself in the shoes of an average Nigerian Christian (usually from Nigeria's South or Middle Belt). 90% or more of Nigeria's revenue comes from the South and you begin to reason that a nation that excludes the 12 Sharia states of the far North would be a more religiously harmonious state.
6. With that kind of thought pattern, they are less likely to be interested in fighting for the territorial integrity of the Nigerian state, but carving out a space in which they and their children can live in peace.
7. Similar reasoning led to Croatia's moves to break out from Yugoslavia.
8. We are on the road to Yugoslavia.

Boko Haram is the most serious threat to Nigeria's continued existence as a united nation. Ever.

Boko Haram attacks the fundamental basis of Nigerian unity. No one has ever tried to pit 70 million conservative Muslims against 70 million largely evangelical and conservative catholic Christians (Thanks to the British for their marvelous wisdom!). There is no simulation that can accurately predict the outcome, but history suggests that the likelihood of 70 million conservative Muslims peacefully coexisting with 70 million conservative Christians is extremely slim.

I can only pray.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 02:59 PM

Nigeria's South East was the heart of Biafra.

Enugu — FEARING that the current killings of Southern Christians by the Islamic sect, Boko Haram, in northern states could lead to reprisal attacks in the Southern states, hundreds of Northerners, especially Muslims living in Enugu and other parts of the South East left for their home states, weekend.

The mass exodus by the Northerners came even as the apex Igbo socio-cultural rganisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, directed all Igbo to remain wherever they were to collectively defend their lives and property while awaiting the federal and state governments, as well as other bodies concerned, to put an end to what it described as "this calamitous phenomenon".

Apparently responding to the ultimatum given by an Igbo revolutionary and counter-terrorism group, Ogbunigwe Ndigbo, that all Northern Muslims in the South East should quit within two weeks as their safety would not be guaranteed after the period, Hausa and Fulani Muslims residing in the South East with members of their families, began to return to their home states since last Friday.

Sources told Vanguard that several trucks and trailers had been conveying the Northerners from their settlements in New Artisan market and Ugwuoba in Enugu State, as well as Lokpanta in Abia State to the North since last Friday, following fears that Ndigbo could retaliate killing of their people in the North.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 04:38 PM

Please listen to Wole Soyinka's description of the situation.

A mosque and Islamic school have been attacked and set alight in the southern Nigerian city of Benin, police say.

Police told the BBC that one person was killed, 10 arrested and that part of the mosque was still burning.

It follows a separate attack on a different mosque in the city on Monday.

In recent weeks, southerners, who are mostly Christians or animists, have been the targets of deadly attacks by the Islamist Boko Haram group, which operates in the mainly Muslim north.

A leader of the Hausa community in Benin told the BBC's Hausa Service that 7,000 northerners were seeking refuge in police and army barracks in the city.

The Nigerian Red Cross confirmed to the BBC that they were registering northerners at police stations and army barracks.

Spiral of violence
Two cars at the centre housing the mosque and Islamic school were also torched, police said.

The attack is the latest in a spiral of sectarian violence that has seen many southerners living in the north flee their homes.

The BBC's Naziru Mikailu in Abuja, Nigeria's capital, said the latest violence started in Benin on Monday when a group attacked a mosque, leaving 10 people injured.

Then, in Gusau, capital of northern Zamfara state, youths attacked a church. Police made 19 arrests, our reporter says.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 04:48 PM

Things are getting out of hand, I am getting scared. Honest.

YOLA – Gunmen, suspected to be members of Boko Haram, yesterday, attacked Christ Apostolic Church in Yola, Adamawa State capital, killing 11 worshippers. Another member died in hospital from bullet wounds.

News of the shooting made residents, mostly non-indigenes, to flee their homes in the night and seek refuge at the General Jalo Army Barracks, Yola, for fear of being killed.

Meanwhile, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, yesterday, campaigned for the re-election of Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State despite the nationwide strike called by labour over the recent increase in petrol price.

It was learnt that the unknown gunmen, who rode on motorcycles, entered the church and opened fire on the worshippers. 11 members reportedly died on the spot and several others sustained bullet wounds.

One of the wounded church members reportedly died later, bringing the number of those who died to 12, even as five others are in critical conditions at the Specialist Hospital, Yola.

Last Friday, 12 mourners were killed in Mubi, the commercial nerve centre of the state by suspected members of Boko Haram sect.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/01/boko-haram-attack-claims-12-in-adamawa/

Stan

01-10-2012, 04:49 PM

Interesting (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16492504), he places blame squarely on the powers to be and an intolerance to accept any other religion than that of the hierarchy.

"There's no question at all, whatsoever. Those who have created this faceless army have lost control of that army."

You think that the US won't have a role to play in the potential partition of a nation that produces 2.4 million barrels of oil per day?

Not to detract from your point, but half of South America, Angola and Iraq are on your doorstep waiting to replace the 500,000 barrels a month Nigeria exports to the US. I would hope that the US would be interested in assisting for humanitarian reasons vs crude oil :mad:

Chowing

01-10-2012, 05:11 PM

Please listen to Wole Soyinka's description of the situation.......The attack is the latest in a spiral of sectarian violence that has seen many southerners living in the north flee their homes.
And, now Northerners in the south taking refuge a police stations and Red Cross camps being set up.

Boko Haram is the most serious threat to Nigeria's continued existence as a united nation. Ever.

Boko Haram attacks the fundamental basis of Nigerian unity. No one has ever tried to pit 70 million conservative Muslims against 70 million largely evangelical and conservative catholic Christians (Thanks to the British for their marvelous wisdom!). There is no simulation that can accurately predict the outcome, but history suggests that the likelihood of 70 million conservative Muslims peacefully coexisting with 70 million conservative Christians is extremely slim.

I can only pray.
The situation is indeed dire. I can only monitor the reports and communicate via twitter with those there, but you are there. I am confident that reports cannot communicate adequately the concern and fear that is growing in Africa's most populous country.
God be with you and the people of Nigeria whatever their faith.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 06:36 PM

Interesting, he places blame squarely on the powers to be and an intolerance to accept any other religion than that of the hierarchy.

And what religion do you think he is referring to? Islam.

And who are the "powers to be" he is referring to? The Northern Muslim elite.

These kind of statements are not usually made openly.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 07:06 PM

Not to detract from your point, but half of South America, Angola and Iraq are on your doorstep waiting to replace the 500,000 barrels a month Nigeria exports to the US. I would hope that the US would be interested in assisting for humanitarian reasons vs crude oil

This article seems to suggest otherwise

It is hardly surprising, then, that since 9/11 the Bush administration has courted Nigeria as an alternative to volatile petro-states in the Middle East and Latin America. In 2002, the White House declared the oil of Africa (five other countries on the continent are also key producers) a "strategic national interest"—meaning that the United States would use military force, if necessary, to protect it. In short, Nigeria's troubles could become America's and, like those of the Persian Gulf, cost us dearly in blood and money.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/04/worse-than-iraq/4707/?single_page=true

In addition, you can never be quite sure of how Iraq will turn out over this decade. We all know that Iraq is a very big risk (but that is a topic for another day).

Nigeria is not all about oil. It also about security cooperation in Africa, peacekeeping and access to a potentially huge market.

Stan

01-10-2012, 07:31 PM

And what religion do you think he is referring to? Islam.

And who are the "powers to be" he is referring to? The Northern Muslim elite.

These kind of statements are not usually made openly.

Thanks for that - but I did actually get it from the interview. It was me that discounted the "impoverished North" and placed my position on the powers to be. I still do and this is not an uncommon problem for the region.

Stan

01-10-2012, 07:43 PM

Kingjaja,

Not to detract from your point, but half of South America, Angola and Iraq are on your doorstep waiting to replace the 500,000 barrels a month Nigeria exports to the US. I would hope that the US would be interested in assisting for humanitarian reasons vs crude oil :mad:

This article seems to suggest otherwise

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/04/worse-than-iraq/4707/?single_page=true

Good article from a former President based on info from 2002. The tables for exports to the US for 2011 paint an entirely different picture based on real data and not personal opinions.

In addition, you can never be quite sure of how Iraq will turn out over this decade. We all know that Iraq is a very big risk (but that is a topic for another day).

Agreed, but then it was your post above I'm responding to.

Nigeria is not all about oil. It also about security cooperation in Africa, peacekeeping and access to a potentially huge market.

Concur. I hope that's enough and still naively believe that the US assistance would be based on humanitarian needs and show up before the fact (this time).

Chowing

01-10-2012, 07:47 PM

Thanks for that - but I did actually get it from the interview. It was me that discounted the "impoverished North" and placed my position on the powers to be. I still do and this is not an uncommon problem for the region.

Some Nigerians are as well placing the blame on the powers in Abuja.

Boko Haram’s ability to attack; days after it urged Southern Christians to leave the North, days after the President imposed his brand of state of emergency, and days after the Police Chief advised the people to ignore such threats; is a telling demonstration that the Nigerian authority had lost touch with the situation on the ground. One thing so difficult to ignore is the apparent equivocation and insistency on the part of the government. At once the President would describe the menace in grave terms, such as in his remark on December 31, 2011, thus: the attacks “have threatened our collective security and shaken the foundations of our corporate existence as a nation.” Yet, the same President would fail to match this assessment with the requisite practical measures to deal with it. If there is a credible threat to “our corporate existence as a nation”, the President should then act with that level of totality of response that would save the nation. A threat to the existence of the Nigerian state ought to be viewed as the highest conceivable threat requiring of every effort the government could muster. But that has not been the case.

Along the lines of the President’s thoughts, there are widening discussions that touch upon the disintegration of Nigeria. Many Nigerians now ask whether Nigeria could remain one country or whether alternative possibilities would be preferable. Such questions could be taken at multiple levels of analysis. At one level, one could be view the questions as mark of frustration at the inability of the government to contain, prevent or preempt Boko Haram. At yet another level, there is a more informed, but equally alarming, concern about the failure of politics in Nigeria, which lies at the root of the crisis. But regardless of where one stands on this debate, one thing is clear. There ought to be a better way to break up a country than another civil war or more genocide.
http://elombah.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9396:the-nigerian-nation-and-the-gathering-dangers&catid=25:politics&Itemid=92

Do I dare ask if, in a country as large, populous and divided as Nigeria is right now, be governed and controlled by any central authority? Well I guess I just asked it. My opinion is that is extremely difficult, if not impossible. It will take permanent partitioning, or a miracle. IMHO

davidbfpo

01-10-2012, 08:10 PM

Stan

01-10-2012, 08:29 PM

Do I dare ask if, in a country as large, populous and divided as Nigeria is right now, be governed and controlled by any central authority? Well I guess I just asked it.

I completely agree and there are dozens of examples in the last two decades that support this hypothesis. A dysfunctional or corrupt government is not concerned with anything more than their perceived authority.

My opinion is that is extremely difficult, if not impossible. It will take permanent partitioning, or a miracle. IMHO

Seems to me partitioning would only generate disorder where the Nigerians have been trying for years to keep some 36 "States" together. Who would end up with the wealth and who the spoils ? Aren't we back to the powers to be running the show ?

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 10:36 PM

Seems to me partitioning would only generate disorder where the Nigerians have been trying for years to keep some 36 "States" together. Who would end up with the wealth and who the spoils ? Aren't we back to the powers to be running the show ?

Partitioning is increasingly being viewed as the only option or a loose confederation of semi-autonomous regions. This is precisely why most informed Nigerians have been clamouring for a sovereign national conference, to negotiate the future political architecture of Nigeria.

We could negotiate to split into separate nations, with each nation assured of a certain percentage of oil revenue for a period of say, thirty years.

Unlike Americans and British, neither us nor our forefathers chose to be Nigerians. Nigeria was imposed on us, those 36 states were unilaterally created by successive military administrations, they did not come into existence by a process easily recognisable by most American political scientists.

The greatest fraud on earth is the political map of Africa. The political maps of Africa do not represent the aspirations of the African people, they merely represent colonial spheres of influence. They will change this century.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 11:01 PM

As Nigeria moves along, what are the externally visible signs that need to be watched?

When I use externally visible signs I do not refer to traditional or new media reporting; instead the Naira exchange rate (currently 1.00 USD=161.850 NGN), travel advisory notices, large scale exit traffic and the cost of borrowing (no idea where to find that).

The exchange rate may not be a very reliable index. Nigeria is an import dependent economy and a major import item is refined gasoline (none of the refineries is working). A third of the budget was spent on gasoline importation and since dollars are used, a lot of naira is being used to buy gasoline in dollars.

If the government succeeds in removing fuel subsidy, some pressure may ease and the naira / dollar exchange rate position may actually improve. However, an improved naira / dollar exchange rate does not suggest a drop in unemployment rate.(In a deregulated market, gasoline prices will be higher and the pressure on business owners to cut costs and sack employees will be greater).

Look at unemployment rates and inflation rates for transportation and foodstuff. Unemployment rates are difficult to measure and the statistics are unreliable, but if transport fares are doubled and the price of staples such as rice, garri, beans and cooking oil rise sharply, then there is trouble around the corner.

Do I dare ask if, in a country as large, populous and divided as Nigeria is right now, be governed and controlled by any central authority? Well I guess I just asked it.

Having observed Nigeria's progress firsthand since 1999, I doubt it. Things tend to be more straight forward in a military administration (military hierarchy is adhered to and the Head of State can sack anyone who doesn't toe the line without explanation).

It is doubtful whether the West will tolerate another military dictatorship in Nigeria - and neither will Niger Delta Militants and other restless young men. We are like Yugoslavia after the death of Tito.

In a civilian democratic administration things are a lot different. The problem is that there isn't a single set of ideas, a common set of values or a common World view.

Half of Nigeria sees Saudi Arabia, Malaysia or Turkey as the model for development (Muslim). The other half sees the Western World as the model (Christian). The consequence is that Nigeria lacks a soul, a sense of common purpose.

All said, there is a silver lining - we are approaching the tipping point when the costs of corruption and bad governance seem to be finally outweighing the benefits. If that is the only lesson the ruling elite learn, it will be a lesson well learned.

KingJaja

01-10-2012, 11:05 PM

At this rate, it will only take an act of God to prevent massive reprisal attacks. There is a lot at stake: credibility of the government, religious antagonisms and the unity of the nation.

(AP) MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — Police say an Islamist sect has killed eight people, including four police officers, at a beer parlor in northeast Nigeria.

Local police commissioner Tanko Lawan said the attack happened late Tuesday night in Yobe state. Lawan said the gunmen opened fire on the parlor, killing people including a 7-year-old child.

Lawan said no arrests have been made but blamed the shooting on a radical sect known as Boko Haram.

The group has been blamed in at least 54 deaths in recent days, according to an Associated Press count.

Boko Haram says it has started specifically targeting Christians, exploiting religious tensions in Africa's most populous nation.

President Goodluck Jonathan imposed a state of emergency just over a week ago in parts of the country most affected by the feared sect attacks.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501710_162-57356405/sect-kills-8-in-beer-parlor-attack-in-nigeria/

Dayuhan

01-10-2012, 11:27 PM

You think that the US won't have a role to play in the potential partition of a nation that produces 2.4 million barrels of oil per day?

I don't see any useful or productive role for the US to play. The US may try to play one, for any number of reasons (contrary to popular belief, not everything the US does is All About Oil), but I don't think it's likely to be useful or productive. Fortunately (for both us and Nigeria) we are at a point in our intervention/isolation cycle where a proposed intervention is likely to be critically examined and widely opposed.

Is anyone actually talking seriously about partition yet? That may of course happen, but I suspect it's more likely to be the outcome of a civil war than of some deliberate process. Partition along sectarian lines would give you an utterly impoverished, landlocked, isolated basket case (Niger 2.0) in the north and an oil-rich but absolutely corrupt state in the south... maybe an improvement, maybe not. We shall see. I would not want to see the US adopt either partition or prevention of partition as a goal: not our business.

Not to detract from your point, but half of South America, Angola and Iraq are on your doorstep waiting to replace the 500,000 barrels a month Nigeria exports to the US. I would hope that the US would be interested in assisting for humanitarian reasons vs crude oil :mad:

The amount of oil actually exported to the US from Nigeria is quite irrelevant. If Nigerian production drops the people who buy from Nigeria will compete with other buyers on the spot market and for other contracts, and the price will go up for everyone. The US will still get oil, but it will be more expensive. Still, the cost of intervention would exceed the cost of more expensive oil, and there's a high probability that intervention wouldn't get the oil back on the market anyway.

Even if US involvement were motivated by purely humanitarian concerns, it would be assumed by virtually everyone - including most Americans - to be a play for oil.

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 12:58 AM

I don't see any useful or productive role for the US to play. The US may try to play one, for any number of reasons (contrary to popular belief, not everything the US does is All About Oil), but I don't think it's likely to be useful or productive. Fortunately (for both us and Nigeria) we are at a point in our intervention/isolation cycle where a proposed intervention is likely to be critically examined and widely opposed.

The US in its wisdom decided to create AFRICOM. Ostensibly, AFRICOM was created for situations like this. In creating AFRICOM, you advertised that you have the capabilities to deal with these sorts of situations. If Nigeria spirals out of control and AFRICOM idly stands by, then Africans will naturally question the relevance of AFRICOM.

(All the ingredients for AFRICOM could exist in Nigeria: counter-terrorism, energy security, humanitarian intervention etc)

The point I am trying to make is that certain things are best done discreetly. You loudly announced your second coming to Africa and you have created expectations and demands for your services. You will be under pressure to deliver.

Note this: I am not advocating the intervention of AFRICOM or even suggesting that US should play an active role in Nigeria or even that the US could solve Nigeria's problems. I am merely suggesting that the fact that the US has created an African combatant command makes it nearly impossible to be passive when Africa's largest nation is deep crisis.

Dayuhan

01-11-2012, 01:40 AM

The US in its wisdom decided to create AFRICOM. Ostensibly, AFRICOM was created for situations like this. In creating AFRICOM, you advertised that you have the capabilities to deal with these sorts of situations. If Nigeria spirals out of control and AFRICOM idly stands by, then Africans will naturally question the relevance of AFRICOM.

So if AFRICOM intervenes it's evil, if it doesn't it's irrelevant?

All the creation of AFRICOM advertised was a bureaucratic reshuffle, the repackaging of existing capacity under a different name. It represents no significant shift or change. I realize that a lot of people don't believe this, but the sooner they figure it out, the better.

I don't see much of a role for the US in this picture, discreet or otherwise. What would you, or anyone, have us do?

Stan

01-11-2012, 06:07 AM

The amount of oil actually exported to the US from Nigeria is quite irrelevant.

Eloquently put... Been trying to say that for the last month or so.

Even if US involvement were motivated by purely humanitarian concerns, it would be assumed by virtually everyone - including most Americans - to be a play for oil.

Maybe we could start a new trend and refuse the oil, but with 25,000 of us over there our unemployment would skyrocket with their return :rolleyes:

The US in its wisdom decided to create AFRICOM. Ostensibly, AFRICOM was created for situations like this. In creating AFRICOM, you advertised that you have the capabilities to deal with these sorts of situations. If Nigeria spirals out of control and AFRICOM idly stands by, then Africans will naturally question the relevance of AFRICOM.

I can only imagine what's going on in Stuttgart and what they must be thinking - Nigeria having spearheaded the campaign against their very existence. I read your post from 17 NOV at the AFRICOM site and wondered if you ever received some sort of answer ?

Dayuhan

01-11-2012, 07:32 AM

Maybe we could start a new trend and refuse the oil, but with 25,000 of us over there our unemployment would skyrocket with their return

They'd just sell it to someone else. Even if US companies pulled out (and US companies/workers pump oil that flows all over the world, not just to the US) somebody else would move in.

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 08:22 AM

So if AFRICOM intervenes it's evil, if it doesn't it's irrelevant?

All the creation of AFRICOM advertised was a bureaucratic reshuffle, the repackaging of existing capacity under a different name. It represents no significant shift or change. I realize that a lot of people don't believe this, but the sooner they figure it out, the better.

I don't see much of a role for the US in this picture, discreet or otherwise. What would you, or anyone, have us do?

We've exhausted this argument in the past and I don't want to get into it again. As I said earlier, this is our fight, our problem and it isn't really the business of the US.

The bureaucratic reshuffle could have been done secretly. After all, you are not Alexander the Great who recently conquered the entire inhabited World. There is an element of hubris involved in the decision to divide the entire World into combatant commands (when you neither have the desire nor the capacity to conquer the entire World militarily). The Europeans and Asians could take that in their stride, the African psyche cannot.

Once again, my point is that the creation of AFRICOM puts pressure on the USG to do something overtly. This is irrespective of whether Africans view it as being evil or irrelevant.

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 08:28 AM

Could this be a weapons source for Boko Haram / Niger Delta militants? Nigeria's borders and ports are so porous and customs officials are so corrupt. The numbers are staggering - 80,000.

An international arms dealer from Yorkshire was involved in the illegal trade of 80,000 guns and 32 million rounds of ammunition from China to Nigeria and hid the profits in an offshore bank account, a court has heard.

Gary Hyde, 42, partly arranged and organised the shipment in 2007 of 40,000 AK47 assault rifles, 30,000 other rifles and 10,000 9mm pistols, plus the ammunition, a trial at Southwark Crown Court in London was told.

Prosecutors say the deal was illegal because it was partly arranged in Britain and Hyde had failed to get permission from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.

Opening the case, Mukul Chawla QC told the jury: “Mr Hyde, despite knowing that such a licence was required, helped to organise the shipment... without seeking and obtaining the required licence.

“In that sense the prosecution say he acted criminally...This was not simple negligence but was a deliberate and calculated breach of the law.

“In order to ensure that his criminality, his illegal activities, were not drawn to the attention of the UK authorities, he placed and thus concealed profits from this illegal trade into a bank account in Liechtenstein.”

Hyde, of Mask Lane, Newton on Derwent, near York, denies two charges under the Trade in Goods (Control) Order 2003 and one of concealing criminal property.

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/at-a-glance/main-section/gun_dealer_sold_80_000_weapons_in_illegal_shipment _1_4126945

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 08:29 AM

They'd just sell it to someone else. Even if US companies pulled out (and US companies/workers pump oil that flows all over the world, not just to the US) somebody else would move in.

Total and the Chinese would be in seventh heaven!!

Stan

01-11-2012, 08:47 AM

Could this be a weapons source for Boko Haram / Niger Delta militants? Nigeria's borders and ports are so porous and customs officials are so corrupt. The numbers are staggering - 80,000.

Sounds too large to be for Boko Haram but that doesn't mean they were not included in the order. The link doesn't specifically make the transaction illegal based on the recipient, only that the seller flagrantly disregarded UK laws.

However, there were reports of approx. two million small arms circulating in Burkina Faso, many being home-made. Sorry, but the link is in French (http://www.africatime.com/burkina/nouvelle.asp?no_nouvelle=634287&no_categorie=).

Dayuhan

01-11-2012, 11:21 AM

There is an element of hubris involved in the decision to divide the entire World into combatant commands (when you neither have the desire nor the capacity to conquer the entire World militarily). The Europeans and Asians could take that in their stride, the African psyche cannot.

Maybe the Europeans and Asians recognize that the US isn't dividing the world, they're simply dividing the management of forces. Given that the force allocation to AFRICOM is quite minimal and the level of evident interest in African intervention is very low, there's really very little reason to assume that AFRICOM is intended to intervene in situations like that in Nigeria. The "African psyche" may have imposed certain assumptions about the nature and intent of AFRICOM, but I don't think the US will feel any obligation or any pressure to live up to those assumptions.

Once again, my point is that the creation of AFRICOM puts pressure on the USG to do something overtly. This is irrespective of whether Africans view it as being evil or irrelevant.

I don't see how the creation of AFRICOM puts pressure on the US Government to do anything. Certainly there's no such pressure perceived by Americans. Some in Africa might be surprised (and some disappointed) to discover that AFRICOM is in fact not some rabid overpowering intervention-minded instrument of hegemony, but it will be no surprise to anyone paying attention.

Chowing

01-11-2012, 02:54 PM

The point I am trying to make is that certain things are best done discreetly. You loudly announced your second coming to Africa and you have created expectations and demands for your services. You will be under pressure to deliver.

Note this: I am not advocating the intervention of AFRICOM or even suggesting that US should play an active role in Nigeria or even that the US could solve Nigeria's problems. I am merely suggesting that the fact that the US has created an African combatant command makes it nearly impossible to be passive when Africa's largest nation is deep crisis.

The "discreetly" portion of US policy in Africa was overtaken by AFRICOM, that is the establishment of it. I am confident there are still a lot of covert, discreet advise being given by the US around Africa, through AFRICOM or through other means.

I understand that you are not advocating US involvement, but I as you, see that it is a growing possibility. Yet, as I think about it, in a country as large and populous as Nigeria and with the violence growing every day, how could the US military get involved? Nigeria is also one of the most educated and informed countries on the continent, once the US begins even covertly assisting, that fact would become known. It seems to me the only way they could go in a be safe, is to go in in large numbers.... a nightmare for all involved.

Chowing

01-11-2012, 03:03 PM

I completely agree and there are dozens of examples in the last two decades that support this hypothesis. A dysfunctional or corrupt government is not concerned with anything more than their perceived authority.

Seems to me partitioning would only generate disorder where the Nigerians have been trying for years to keep some 36 "States" together. Who would end up with the wealth and who the spoils ? Aren't we back to the powers to be running the show ?

Goodluck and his administration presently has not control over the country. That seems to be a fact. That equates to their authority being only "perceived authority," as you say. The perception of their authority is deteriorating every day.

I do not see the partitioning or diving up of Nigeria as coming from any well thought out discussion and referendum. If it comes, it will be the result of civil war, and a whole lot worse than that which took place in Sudan.

Kingjaja makes some good points about the borders in Africa. But, those borders have been around a long time now, but as in eastern Europe and the former USSR in the decades past, and are now beginning to change. Somalia will also be divided into 2 or 3 countries. When? Who knows the timing? But it seems inevitable in Somalia and Sudan. Boko Haram and al-Shabaab are just hastening that day, IMHO.

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 04:23 PM

I do not see the partitioning or diving up of Nigeria as coming from any well thought out discussion and referendum. If it comes, it will be the result of civil war, and a whole lot worse than that which took place in Sudan.

Kingjaja makes some good points about the borders in Africa. But, those borders have been around a long time now, but as in eastern Europe and the former USSR in the decades past, and are now beginning to change. Somalia will also be divided into 2 or 3 countries. When? Who knows the timing? But it seems inevitable in Somalia and Sudan. Boko Haram and al-Shabaab are just hastening that day, IMHO.

I agree with you.

In Africa, borders tend to be vertical but ethnic associations tend to be horizontal. For example, the people of the sahelian hinterland are a distinct grouping from the forest tribes of the coast. The colonialists understood this but their guiding principle was divide et impera. So these artificial borders suited the British, French and Portuguese quite well.

In a fairly prosperous dictatorship these differences can be papered over, but in a democracy, they are brought into sharp relief. The partition and realignment of Sub Saharan African states will be the greatest news story out of Africa this century. The inevitable French withdrawal from West Africa will precipitate a new round of instability in that region. Nigeria is too large, too disunited and too complex to continue to exist as a united nation.

These are the simple facts.

According to Tom Barnett, AFRICOM is supposed to play a major role in all this; occupy the vacuum left by the French, do the delicate diplomacy required and play some yet to be identified military role. I don't think he knows what he is talking about.

KingJaja

01-11-2012, 06:05 PM

I taking a step away from the Boko Haram problem. The fuel subsidy crisis has united the middle class and the poor masses against the Nigerian Government. The anger has shifted from fuel subsidy to wasteful government spending.

For example the amount budgeted for feeding alone by the President and Vice President Amounts to 992.57 million naira (or about $6.2 million a year). HP laptops that normally cost 70,000 naira were budgeted at 300,000 naira.

These figures are scandalous and the budget is being analysed line by line. The level of scepticism with government is increasing.

Taxpayers will spend a fortune feeding the president and his deputy next year

The Federal Government plans to spend approximately N1 billion in feeding its first and second citizens next year if the National Assembly approves President Goodluck Jonathan’s spending proposal as submitted to it last week.

The president and his deputy will together enjoy N992.57 million worth of food and general catering services in 2012.

According to a detailed analysis of the N4.749trillion budget the president presented to lawmakers last week, the cost of purchasing food stuffs, catering supplies, kitchen equipments for the president and his vice, and their offices, will cost the nation N992.57 million, about N7 million away from a billion naira.

The document, obtained by Premium Times, contains the administration’s fiscal outlay for the next 12 months, and remains subject to the approval of the National Assembly.

Lawmakers have already questioned the huge allocation of nearly a fourth of the budget to security, and the still high recurrent cost, and have indicated plans to review the figures downward.

The estimate indicates that of the N18.34 billion budgeted for the State House, about N1billion would be spent on providing food for the president’s household as well as that of his deputy.

Added: on current exchange rate equivalent to US$113m

http://businessnews.com.ng/2011/12/20/2012-budget-presidency-to-spend-naira-1-billion-on-food-subsidy/

Chowing

01-12-2012, 06:15 PM

The recent spate of brutal attacks in Nigeria by Boko Haram, a local terrorist group professing allegiance to Al Qaeda, has drawn attention to West Africa as the next regional battleground against violent global jihad.

But the operative word here is local, not regional – despite such worries in parts of Africa and the West.

This week, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon shared a report with Nigeria’s foreign minister that raised “growing concern in the region” about possible links between Boko Haram, based in Nigeria’s Muslim north, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, known as AQIM
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0112/Nigeria-s-Boko-Haram-attacks-are-misunderstood-as-regional-Islamist-threat

davidbfpo

01-12-2012, 06:27 PM

A BBC report:
The leader of Nigeria's Boko Haram Islamist militants has defended recent attacks on Christians, saying they are revenge for killings of Muslims. In his first video message, posted on YouTube, Abubakar Shekau...

We are also at war with Christians because the whole world knows what they did to us..They killed our fellows and even ate their flesh in Jos..

He was speaking in Hausa - the most common language in northern Nigeria.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16510929

This is an ostensibly independently added YouTube edition of the broadcast:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umkj50SUzck and an English translation:http://naijanedu.com/full-english-translation-of-boko-haram-leader-new-video-sako-zuwa-ga-jonathan-1-imam-abubakar-shekau/

davidbfpo

01-12-2012, 06:44 PM

An IISS comment a week ago, which concludes:
..the sect lacks both the capability and the intent to conduct attacks beyond Nigeria’s boundaries and, as such, should be treated as a localised problem, albeit a very serious one.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=333

This is an IISS Strategic Comment, from November 2011:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/november/boko-haram-nigerias-growing-new-headache/

KingJaja

01-12-2012, 07:56 PM

davidbfo,

Please take these arm-chair analysts with a pinch of salt. Boko Haram. Boko Haram did not start as a radical Islamist organisation bent on violently enforcing a Taliban-style form of Islam in Nigeria, but it has rapidly become that.

Could AQIM "technical advisors" be responsible for that? Possibly.

An organisation that successfully targeted the UN HQ in Abuja has the intent and capability to harm Westerners and will eventually attack Western assets in Northern Nigeria. (It will have difficulties in Southern Nigeria due to ethnic differences, but expect an attack on Westerners within the next few months). As the appeal of the movement spreads (fueled by the heavy-handed response by Nigerian security services, poverty, injustice and corruption), expect more middle-class / worldly-wise Nigerian Muslims to take its teachings to heart and embark on a "World-wide jihad".

A few months ago, I would have assumed that this was impossible, but recent events are making me change my mind.

Nigeria is a very poorly governed state and Nigeria has only about 300,000 policemen and 75,000 soldiers to manage security in a nation of 160 million. Please remember that Boko Haram is not the only issue that the Nigerian security services are dealing with. They also have to deal with the Niger Delta. Nigerian security services are not only incompetent but do not have the required numbers.

I think it is best to balance any analysis made by think tanks with what people who are actually on the ground observe.

Finally, nobody really knows who the hell Boko Haram is / are. (Forgive me for my language!)

KingJaja

01-12-2012, 08:06 PM

Maybe the Europeans and Asians recognize that the US isn't dividing the world, they're simply dividing the management of forces. Given that the force allocation to AFRICOM is quite minimal and the level of evident interest in African intervention is very low, there's really very little reason to assume that AFRICOM is intended to intervene in situations like that in Nigeria. The "African psyche" may have imposed certain assumptions about the nature and intent of AFRICOM, but I don't think the US will feel any obligation or any pressure to live up to those assumptions.

A few points.

1. Europeans and Asians have witnessed and see the positive benefits of US military intervention (World War I and II, Korea etc). Africans, for perfectly understandable reasons do not.

2. A more democratic Africa is an Africa in which both local and foreign governments will be under much more scrutiny. The US is unique among historical great powers in that it wants to be liked.

3. The desire to be liked will force the US to either live up to those assumptions or quietly close shop. I suspect that the US will quietly close shop, because America is a very impatient, risk-averse power and is least patient when dealing with Africa.

KingJaja

01-12-2012, 08:11 PM

Maybe the Europeans and Asians recognize that the US isn't dividing the world, they're simply dividing the management of forces. Given that the force allocation to AFRICOM is quite minimal and the level of evident interest in African intervention is very low, there's really very little reason to assume that AFRICOM is intended to intervene in situations like that in Nigeria. The "African psyche" may have imposed certain assumptions about the nature and intent of AFRICOM, but I don't think the US will feel any obligation or any pressure to live up to those assumptions.

A few points.

1. Europeans and Asians have witnessed the positive benefits of US military intervention (World War I and II, Korea etc). The African public, for perfectly understandable reasons do not because they haven't seen any positive benefits of US military intervention. (Sierra Leonians can see the positive benefits of British military intervention, but the US is highly unlikely to do anything as bold and as risky as what the British did in Sierra Leone)

2. A more democratic Africa is an Africa in which both local and foreign governments will be under much more scrutiny. The US is unique among historical great powers in that it wants to be liked.

3. The desire to be liked will force the US to either live up to those assumptions or quietly close shop. I suspect that the US may quietly close shop, because America is a very impatient, risk-averse power and is least patient when dealing with Africa (especially Sub-Saharan Africa). As we say in Nigeria, African wahala may be just too much for America.

davidbfpo

01-12-2012, 09:06 PM

KingJaJa you cited:
(Sierra Leonians can see the positive benefits of British military intervention, but the US is highly unlikely to do anything as bold and as risky as what the British did in Sierra Leone)

Have a look at Post 5 on this thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=11204

The key decision to act in Sierra Leone was taken on the ground by a soldier, quite contrary to his instructions.

davidbfpo

01-12-2012, 09:10 PM

KingJaJa,

Yes I do use plenty of "salt" when reading faraway analysis, especially when my own "armchair" is faraway too. That is why reading the variety of contributions here is part of my daily routine; we have a small expert group here who comment on African matters.

KingJaja

01-12-2012, 09:24 PM

Have a look at Post 5 on this thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=11204

The key decision to act in Sierra Leone was taken on the ground by a soldier, quite contrary to his instructions

It was taken on the ground by a soldier who could read the mind of Tony Blair. Recall that this action was taken only a few years after the Brits practically threatened to intervene alone in Yugoslavia. (Kind of mirrors Libya: Obama had to be dragged kicking and screaming by the French and British before he intervened).

A senior French soldier or a senior British soldier would be more likely to make that kind of judgement in future, but an American soldier will never because neither the American Military nor the American public nor the American president is likely to have any interest in committing American soldiers to even the most simple "open and shut" cases in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Neither of these nations (France or Britain) have an African combatant command, but are much more likely to intervene positively should the need arise.

davidbfpo

01-12-2012, 09:42 PM

Well I think many people here consider the then Brigadier Richards decision was his and the government were presented with a decision made and action taken.

As for this:
the Brits practically threatened to intervene alone in Yugoslavia.

Well I must have missed that, at the time and in my admittedly limited reading on Yugoslavia.

When the actual intervention happened on Mt. Igman, which overlooked Sarejevo, it was joint military action by the Dutch, French & the UK.

There is a very little chance of a UK-only / UK-led military action today in Nigeria, excluding the evacuation of friendly nationals - which I assume is what you meant to refer to here:
Neither of these nations (France or Britain) have an African combatant command, but are much more likely to intervene positively should the need arise.

We have neither the will or capability to do so much beyond an assisted evacuation.

Dayuhan

01-12-2012, 11:11 PM

A few points.

1. Europeans and Asians have witnessed the positive benefits of US military intervention (World War I and II, Korea etc). The African public, for perfectly understandable reasons do not because they haven't seen any positive benefits of US military intervention. (Sierra Leonians can see the positive benefits of British military intervention, but the US is highly unlikely to do anything as bold and as risky as what the British did in Sierra Leone)

Europeans, Asians, and Latin Americans have also observed enough to know that the existence of a US military command in their area doesn't mean that intervention is imminent or intended. Essentially Africans have been sold a bill of goods on the nature and intent of AFRICOM. Over time they'll realize that it's not what it was cracked up to be, and put their attention back toward problems closer to home... such as their own corrupt and inept governments, who of course are only too happy to divert fear and anger onto an external boogeyman, no matter how hypothetical.

2. A more democratic Africa is an Africa in which both local and foreign governments will be under much more scrutiny. The US is unique among historical great powers in that it wants to be liked.

3. The desire to be liked will force the US to either live up to those assumptions or quietly close shop. I suspect that the US may quietly close shop, because America is a very impatient, risk-averse power and is least patient when dealing with Africa (especially Sub-Saharan Africa). As we say in Nigeria, African wahala may be just too much for America.

You're losing me a bit here. Africans assume that AFRICOM is designed for intervention (which they don't want) and stealing resources (which they don't want). AFRICOM is consequently feared and disliked. How would living up to those assumptions lead to the US being liked? Seems to be the challenge is to break those assumptions, and I think the best way to do that is not to intervene. Eventually Africans will realize that their assumptions were unfounded and largely a consequence of self-interested manipulation.

I don't know what will happen in Nigeria. I don't think anyone does, though I suspect it will messy. I do not expect to see US military intervention, and I certainly hope not to see it.

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 01:27 AM

There is a very little chance of a UK-only / UK-led military action today in Nigeria, excluding the evacuation of friendly nationals - which I assume is what you meant to refer to here:

Nigeria is too big for anyone to intervene. I was talking about even the smallest, risk-free ex-British colonies like Sierra Leone and the Gambia.

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 01:32 AM

You're losing me a bit here. Africans assume that AFRICOM is designed for intervention (which they don't want) and stealing resources (which they don't want). AFRICOM is consequently feared and disliked. How would living up to those assumptions lead to the US being liked? Seems to be the challenge is to break those assumptions, and I think the best way to do that is not to intervene. Eventually Africans will realize that their assumptions were unfounded and largely a consequence of self-interested manipulation.

But what is the point of having a military presence if you don't want to intervene?

The best solution is to quietly leave. Now.

Dayuhan

01-13-2012, 04:46 AM

But what is the point of having a military presence if you don't want to intervene?

The best solution is to quietly leave. Now.

Leave where? Stuttgart?

There are all kinds of reasons for a small military presence short of actual intervention, typically involving training and low-level cooperation at the request of a government not directly involved in conflict. The US presence in Africa at this point is so minimal that it's close to having already left. It's certainly way too small to conduct any meaningful intervention.

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 09:57 AM

A group under the aegis of South-South Elders and Leaders rose from an emergency meeting in Abuja, on Monday, warning of a possible break-up of Nigeria in the light of sustained killing of southerners in the North by members of the Islamic sect Boko Haram.

The group, led by elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, urged the Federal Government to start considering the idea of convening a National Conference, which, it said, would offer the component units of the country an opportunity to discuss solution to the fragile unity of Nigeria.

Clark, in a press conference after the South-South elders’ meeting, said all Nigerians were equal since Nigeria was founded as equal federating units, a reason he said the South-South condemned the turn of events in which a section of Nigeria, most especially the North, felt that it owns Nigeria more than the other sections of the country.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/front-page-news/34107-ssouth-elders-warn-of-possible-break-up-of-nigeria

Interesting point: Edwin Clark is largely regarded as Jonathan's mentor. So if Edwin Clark is open to the idea of a National Conference, it should be assumed that Jonathan may likely buy the idea.

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 11:50 AM

The only census ever taken was in Kano state, which found in 2006 that there were 1.2 million Almajiri in Kano alone. One researcher working with UNICEF estimates that 60 percent of the children never return home.

"We can see the manifestations in child begging, child destitution, child trafficking," said Muhamed Laden, a professor of law at Ahmadu Bello University.

"And then they're easily instigated for them to be involved as children in such conflicts that have largely been violent and very bloody in this part of the world."

The government is looking into monitoring and licensing the schools, but the National Council for the Welfare of the Destitute, which is piloting such a program, complains of too little funding.

Council officials warn that the consequences of ignoring the children could be dire.

"They're a real threat -- a real problem -- to the society, unless you address this issue now," said Usman Jibrin, the council's president.

"Otherwise, these children will one day take over control of this country -- in a very unpleasant way."

The children are a violent threat to Nigeria, but also its first victims.

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-01-07/world/nigeria.children.radicalization_1_religious-violence-religious-clashes-kano?_s=PM:WORLD

I think I have posted this before, but I am posting it again. I think Usman Jibrin's prediction has come true (with Boko Haram). Previously Northern politicians had used these boys as hired muscle and political thugs. It was easy to rally them against perceived injustice from non-Muslim ethnic groups and in support of the imposition of Sharia law. Now Nigeria's Salafists have cleverly exploited the situation and they potentially have 10 million poor, disgruntled young men to play with - whose only exposure to education is the regurgitation of the Quran.

However, left out of most Western analysis is the reaction of the largely Christian Southern half of Nigeria. Southern Nigerians and the Southern leadership are increasingly asking the question? What is the best way of dealing with this problem? The following could be done:

1. Massive investment in security and education in Northern Nigeria. However, the Nigerian security services are not equipped to deal with complicated challenges like Boko Haram (Nigeria spends more on the rehabilitation of ex-Niger Delta militants than on universal basic education). Due to mismanagement of resources, the Nigerian Government lacks either the capacity or the resources to make a significant impact on the situation in Northern Nigeria. In addition, foreign donors cannot make much of an impact. For example, total US aid spending in Nigeria is in the region of $500 million, this is less than the budgets of most Nigerian states (there are 36 states). So the impact will be negligible.

(NB: More than 50% of school enrollment in Lagos is in private schools and the trend is being replicated elsewhere in Southern Nigeria. Northern Nigeria lacks a dynamic private sector that can capitalise on government inefficiencies)

2. Renegotiate the internal political architecture of Nigeria, create a loose confederation of semi-independent regions. Let the North set her own laws, handle her own internal security and do pretty much what it likes. If necessary, let Southerners relocate en mass from the North and vice versa. Ensure that the North gets as much as it needs from the proceeds of crude oil sales.

3. Partition Nigeria into independent states. This would be much easier to accomplish if (2) has been implemented successfully for a couple of years. This is why certain segments of the Southern elite are clamouring for a Sovereign National Conference because if the outcome of the conference is implemented, Nigeria will look a lot like (2) and we may well be on our way to (3).

Another interesting trend that most Western Analysts tend to miss is that Nigeria's Middle Belt (that has a history of traditionally siding with the North) is leaning more to the South. The major reason for this trend is the increased radicalisation of Northern Muslims: Nigeria's Middle Belt has a Christian majority but its sizable Muslim minority is much more tolerant of other faiths than the increasingly radicalised Muslims of Nigeria's North.

Boko Haram is seen as a threat, but it is also seen as an opportunity by many players in Nigeria's complex politics. Certain segments of the Northern elite see it as an opportunity to present the present administration as being weak and incompetent. Certain segments of the Southern elite see it as an opportunity to present Nigeria's North as an African version of Pakistan's frontier region and thus argue that a region as volatile as the North should not be entrusted with leadership. They also see it as an opportunity to renegotiate the basis for unity.

As I said earlier, it is not merely the open and shut "poverty and alienation causes terrorism" line being peddled by many Western analysts, it is deeper.

What do you guys think?

Stan

01-13-2012, 06:30 PM

But what is the point of having a military presence if you don't want to intervene?

The best solution is to quietly leave. Now.

I'm not even sure where to begin with this although many of us have tried to clear up the AFRICOM syndrome herein. The size and physical location should be sufficient to conclude they are not there as an intervention force, and, never were. Quite honestly, back in the EUCOM days we (the boots on the ground) complained bitterly about the lack of admin support. Imagine what happened with the genocide and a 3-man team with over a million people, 4,000 plus a day dying in front of us.

You really need to can this notion of AFRICOM being some sort of military intervention force.

Dude, it's 90% administrative and management.

This will be the quote for 2012, bar none :D

Leave where? Stuttgart?

Chowing

01-13-2012, 07:08 PM

I'm not even sure where to begin with this although many of us have tried to clear up the AFRICOM syndrome herein. The size and physical location should be sufficient to conclude they are not there as an intervention force, and, never were.....You really need to can this notion of AFRICOM being some sort of military intervention force.

Dude, it's 90% administrative and management.

It may well be predominantly administrative and management staff, yet the have without a doubt intervened militarily nor more than just a few months ago, with drones...drones that they said they would not arm...they did arm them and did use them, in Somalia. And, the drones are still in the Horn.

I realize Nigeria and the way in which Boko Haram and others operate there, it would be next to impossible to use drones against very small knots of terrorists hidden among the populous. I am merely responding to the notion that AFRICOM is not an intervention force. They have indeed intervened.

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 07:18 PM

I think I've got stop talking about AFRICOM.

I have question. Given the likelihood that Romney could win the election next fall, what impact could there be on US policy in Nigeria, given that his foreign policy will be largely influenced by conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation?

How will a conservative Republican administration deal with a crisis between Africa's largest Muslim and Christian populations, given that evangelical Christians put enormous pressure on George Bush to intervene in Southern Sudan?

KingJaja

01-13-2012, 07:21 PM

Stan,

In the days of EUCOM you didn't have American Military men commenting on the internal affairs of African states. Carter Ham does that so frequently that sometimes one begins to wonder whether he is America's top diplomat to Africa.

So it is not merely an administrative arrangement.

Ken White

01-13-2012, 08:30 PM

In the days of EUCOM you didn't have American Military men commenting on the internal affairs of African states. Carter Ham does that so frequently that sometimes one begins to wonder whether he is America's top diplomat to Africa.You've hit on the unintended consequence of US finanacial and organizational errors after World War II.

The US Defense budget immediately after World War II was cut deeply and the trend was downward. Then Korea was attacked, the Cold War began and the trend reversed and started upward. It has been increasing since with only a few slight deviations -- at the same time, the budget of the Department of State and its Foreign Service has trended generally downward. Thus, the Defense Combatant or geographic Commands have more money and more visibility than do our Diplomats. This is not, in the eyes of many of us, a good thing... :o

Further those geographic Commands speak to and for entire regions and groups of Nations whereas at State, all is done by individual Nation -- there is no regional supremo to match the Defense Department. Dumb system but not evil by intent, just a case of inadvertent miscast priorities that has unforeseen consequences as you have noted.
So it is not merely an administrative arrangement.Actually, it is -- but while designed to be just that (and to create another job for a General and some other persons... ;) ) it has the unfortunate side effect of having actual ability to do harm -- or good. In all probability, like the other geographic Commands, it will probably do a little of both but hopefully like them will do no serious damage. :rolleyes:

The USA is a living example of Hanlon's Law: "Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity." We excel in that arena. We aren't really stupid but we do operate by consensus and compromise -- never likely to produce an optimum result. It's due to a governmental process that we generally like but which breeds confusion overseas; we regret that but not enough to change the system -- which is designed to be quite difficult to change in any event. For example, one effort that many thought would be implemented with the current US Administration was the creation of a series of Regional Super Ambassadors and the alignment of the various regional boundaries in the world, currently different as seen by State and by Defense. Should have happened but it did not...

Maybe later. :wry:

tequila

01-13-2012, 09:04 PM

For example, one effort that many thought would be implemented with the current US Administration was the creation of a series of Regional Super Ambassadors and the alignment of the various regional boundaries in the world, currently different as seen by State and by Defense. Should have happened but it did not...

Even if this realignment had been pushed through, the overwhelming budgetary clout wielded by DoD and distributed to the theater commanders still would have trumped anyone from State. Frankly this will continue to be the case as long as our military remains forward deployed and commands the budget that it does.

Ken White

01-13-2012, 10:07 PM

Even if this realignment had been pushed through, the overwhelming budgetary clout wielded by DoD and distributed to the theater commanders still would have trumped anyone from State. Frankly this will continue to be the case as long as our military remains forward deployed and commands the budget that it does.Unfortunately. Goldwater Nichols was a deeply flawed approach but I suspect getting it amended or repealed will take a cataclysm of some sort.

Dayuhan

01-14-2012, 02:17 AM

It may well be predominantly administrative and management staff, yet the have without a doubt intervened militarily nor more than just a few months ago, with drones...drones that they said they would not arm...they did arm them and did use them, in Somalia. And, the drones are still in the Horn.

I realize Nigeria and the way in which Boko Haram and others operate there, it would be next to impossible to use drones against very small knots of terrorists hidden among the populous. I am merely responding to the notion that AFRICOM is not an intervention force. They have indeed intervened.

I doubt that the US has any interest in using drones or anything else against Boko Haram, and I expect that will continue unless BH begins hosting and collaborating with known AQ types.

Three drones really isn't much of an intervention. I certainly wouldn't want to see the US taking sides in these conflicts, putting a significant military presence in, or trying to direct the course of events. Maintaining and occasionally using the capacity to reach out and touch someone who's a known and established enemy is another matter, and the extent to which that constitutes "intervention" is debatable.

I have question. Given the likelihood that Romney could win the election next fall, what impact could there be on US policy in Nigeria, given that his foreign policy will be largely influenced by conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation?

How will a conservative Republican administration deal with a crisis between Africa's largest Muslim and Christian populations, given that evangelical Christians put enormous pressure on George Bush to intervene in Southern Sudan?

I doubt that an administration of either party would have any interest at all in intervention or escalated involvement in any African crisis, barring an Africa-based attack on US soil. The focus of both parties is overwhelmingly domestic and likely to stay that way for the immediate future, with an emphasis on disengaging abroad.

Of course GWB ran on a paleocon program that emphasized downsizing overseas engagements and focusing on domestic affairs, and wanted to be remembered for a focus on education. All things can change.

Stan

01-14-2012, 07:23 AM

It may well be predominantly administrative and management staff, yet the have without a doubt intervened militarily nor more than just a few months ago, with drones...drones that they said they would not arm...they did arm them and did use them, in Somalia. And, the drones are still in the Horn.

I realize Nigeria and the way in which Boko Haram and others operate there, it would be next to impossible to use drones against very small knots of terrorists hidden among the populous. I am merely responding to the notion that AFRICOM is not an intervention force. They have indeed intervened.

Chowing,
I can see your point but would only add that both the drones and operators were/are not part of the AFRICOM staff at Patch. AFRICOM indeed has jurisdiction over their area of operation and do call the shots as the (ahem) experts in the area. There is no magic section there standing armed and ready to go with Delta teams, F-15s and/or drones. A visit to Patch Barracks would have you wondering how anything gets done.

Agreed, I can't see much use in a drone against BH with Kingjaja telling us they don't even know who they are. Too much intel missing.

Stan,

In the days of EUCOM you didn't have American Military men commenting on the internal affairs of African states. Carter Ham does that so frequently that sometimes one begins to wonder whether he is America's top diplomat to Africa.

So it is not merely an administrative arrangement.

Kingjaja,
I thank God that EUCOM was so understaffed that we didn't have people trying to dictate from their armchairs. General Ham has what is affectionately known as a political Advisor - in fact, his advisor is his second in command and a civilian of the female persuasion. Her husband would tell our 3-man team in Rwanda that the refugee crisis and war would last "two weeks tops" (that was July 1994) :D

So, what do ya think now :o

The other truly depressing thing that happens in war zones and humanitarian crises is, everybody wants to go there in their own aircraft, tank, helicopter, etc. They have literally nothing to add and their visits are often a joke of major proportions. Then you have a Congressman or Senator visit and it all goes downhill from there.

Sorry, but with the exception of your point above, AFRICOM is but an administrative arm and should be staffed with the very best -- in order to support some of the very best soldiers -- in some of the most inhospitable places on earth. Incomprehensible, that people who have not the slightest idea, have no cultural nor language training, are responsible for supporting people like me in the heart of darkness.

I'm done ranting :D

davidbfpo

01-14-2012, 09:58 AM

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 12:59 PM

AFRICOM has had a bad press generally, although it has tried to do good things (non-lethal) and repeated criticism here. I have had no dealings with AFRICOM, instead I have listened at a conference to two Africans involved in peacekeeping comment critically; one cited a series of annual visits, IIRC at Lt.Col. rank, discussing the same things, promised 'X' and nothing ever happened. This process had got to the point he no longer wanted the visits.

(Nigerian) General Agwai complained about the lack of utility helicopters in Darfur. AFAIK, the formation of AFRICOM hasn't significantly changed the situation there.

It is one thing to advertise a capability, it is another thing for your intentions to be misunderstood and it is yet another thing for the perception to exist that you are not even delivering on the capabilities you advertised.

It is all well and good to rebuild schools, dig wells and cuddle babies but Africans are smart enough to know that isn't the reason why AFRICOM exists - the Peace Corps and USAID do those jobs rather well.

EUCOM's purpose was to stop the march of the Soviets. CENTCOM to keep the Iranians, Syrians and Al Qaeda in check and PACOM to keep the Chinese in check. Even if you didn't agree with these commands you had a clear understanding of what they were up to.

AFRICOM may be benign today, but the best indication of what direction AFRICOM is headed is SOUTHCOM. SOUTHCOM deals with two major issues - Communist insurgencies and the "War on Drugs". American Military involvement in Latin America led to "a School of the Americas" on the one hand and the debacle on the War on Drugs on the other (the American Military is clearly not the best tool to deploy on the "War on Drugs").

In Africa, we have the makings of a similar debacle in future. Is the US Military the best tool to use in the fight against terrorism? Why expend scarce political and economic capital when there are more efficient ways of doing things?

At the heart of America's foreign policy confusion is the refusal of your political class to appreciate that the World doesn't simply revolve around American public opinion. The American public worships the American Military and a significant proportion of the voting public (at least the Republican-voting part) despises the State Department. This is sad, but it ensures that there is a ready market for military solutions to diplomatic and economic problems. As usual, ambitious politicians capitalise on that (I don't really understand this AFRICOM thing, but I could get them to build a facility or order some equipment from my congressional district).

The result is strategic confusion. On the one hand, you have Thomas Barnett advocating that the US Military do what it has never done before in Africa. On the other, you have advocates of a minimal presence. Because AFRICOM does not have clearly defined strategic boundaries, if Nigeria spirals in chaos, there will be intense demand on US Military assets. The creation of AFRICOM makes US military involvement in such situations, more not less, likely.

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 01:10 PM

Hopefully, this should be my last post on this topic. This what Barnett had to say about AFRICOM late last year.

What’s sad here: AFRICOM was supposed to be different – the whole “3D” approach of diplomacy, development and defense, and in first few years it was. Now, word from everyone familiar with the command is this: AFRICOM’s focus is all kinetics and kills, with the soft stuff going by the wayside. Obama has become addicted to drone strikes like Clinton was with cruise missiles.

Read more: http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/09/21/africom-gets-seriously-nasty/#ixzz1jRBokbBc

This supports my earlier observations.

Stan

01-14-2012, 01:20 PM

AFRICOM has had a bad press generally, although it has tried to do good things (non-lethal) and repeated criticism here. I have had no dealings with AFRICOM, instead I have listened at a conference to two Africans involved in peacekeeping comment critically; one cited a series of annual visits, IIRC at Lt.Col. rank, discussing the same things, promised 'X' and nothing ever happened. This process had got to the point he no longer wanted the visits.

Pre-9/11 I know SOF teams were aligned to particular countries and tried to visit regularly. One wonders whether such non-lethal visits continued.

Hey David,

Our posts probably belong in the AFRICOM Perception thread, but here goes my reply to your post.

It is really a strange phenomenon jumping the fence from EUCOM to AFRICOM when essentially they are one in the same other than EUCOM now free to take care of the European Theatre and AFRICOM supposedly only in charge of Africa. EUCOM being based at Patch always made sense and AFRICOM being based somewhere in Sub-Sahara equally made sense as far as traveling to/from your AO. It only got stinky when the USG wanted to find a home when they could have just parked at any of the larger US Embassies and been done.

As far as promising X with routine visits goes, that's a mistake even for the rank of LTC. Not that individual's right nor responsibility. Only the decision makers get to do that once DOS concurs and chops - it's their money. Those visits (we call them site surveys or in the recent past mil-to-mil) are often accompanied by high ranking officers because the Africans will not deal with a SNCO (below them to do so although the SNCO would be more educated and the right person for the job).

The visits in question can be both non-lethal and lethal assistance depending on what DOS dictates and the number of visits depends on just how much the host country works at preparing. In Africa, the more site surveys the more trinkets that the Yanks bring. Here, one site survey is almost not needed as I have done everything that was needed and the trip is generally restricted to shopping for the little women back home. :cool:

SOF teams are not the only training teams "aligned" with specific countries. That's a clear indication that the country team has not done their homework during the site survey and presumes that SF is the answer. While most of our professional instructors are SF, that doesn't always translate into a need for their skill sets. In fact, most African Soldiers were unable to complete our SOF courses and were sent to junior NCO courses first to get their aptitude levels on a par with a junior officer course prerequisite.

PKO duties involve a horrendous amount of visits and are a waste of time and money.

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 01:25 PM

Some background. There is a real fear that Nigeria could be hurtling towards the edge of the precipice, so a group of influential Nigerians plans to meet in Lagos Monday to discuss Nigeria's challenges. Among the expected participants are Edwin Clark (the defacto leader of the group President Jonathan belongs to), ethnic Igbo, Yoruba and Hausa leaders and religious leaders.

I can't vouch for the success of this meeting, because there isn't any representation from the kind of young men that form the bulk of support for groups like Boko Haram. Anyway, it is an important first step.

LAGOS— National Summit Group, NSG, has announced plans to host a national dialogue to address challenges facing the country. The group also said the summit was aimed at saving the nation from collapse.

The parley, which is expected to hold in Lagos, next week, will attract eminent Nigerians across the nation.

Addressing newsmen in Lagos, Convener of NSG, Prof. Pat Utomi, explained that the summit was imperative and would bring prominent Nigerians to chart a way through the enormous challenges facing the nation.

Utomi said: “The reality of the moment is that Nigeria is clearly at the brinks but we can work our way through that.”

He argued that Nigeria could not continue with such unity threatening situations, hence the need for intervention of the nation’s statesmen.

Stan

01-14-2012, 01:32 PM

EUCOM's purpose was to stop the march of the Soviets. CENTCOM to keep the Iranians, Syrians and Al Qaeda in check and PACOM to keep the Chinese in check. Even if you didn't agree with these commands you had a clear understanding of what they were up to.

AFRICOM may be benign today, but the best indication of what direction AFRICOM is headed is SOUTHCOM. SOUTHCOM deals with two major issues - Communist insurgencies and the "War on Drugs". American Military involvement in Latin America led to "a School of the Americas" on the one hand and the debacle on the War on Drugs on the other (the American Military is clearly not the best tool to deploy on the "War on Drugs").

Kingjaja,
All I can say is there are both regional responsibilities and functional responsibilities when it comes to the Unified Commands. Your description above is far from any of the two.

In Africa, we have the makings of a similar debacle in future. Is the US Military the best tool to use in the fight against terrorism? Why expend scarce political and economic capital when there are more efficient ways of doing things?

This is a common fallacy among both the country team and the host government. The DOJ - Legal Attache - handles such problems and the training. You're correct, this is not the US Military's AO and should not be used as such.

Stan

01-14-2012, 01:45 PM

Hopefully, this should be my last post on this topic. This what Barnett had to say about AFRICOM late last year.

I'd be careful using this author as a source to back your observations.

The soft power stuff that he relates to has little to do with AFRICOM - that's where the diplomats come in trying to get us to build schools and hug and kiss children.

He spends little time trying to tell the readers just who decided on the use of drones. He knows only too well that AFRICOM does not order up drones like a pizza at noon, but, is quite happy to avoid that in his dissertation.

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 02:20 PM

This is a common fallacy among both the country team and the host government. The DOJ - Legal Attache - handles such problems and the training. You're correct, this is not the US Military's AO and should not be used as such.

I may not be an expert on the workings of the US Military, but what we can both agree that in creating AFRICOM, the USG advertised that it was willing to supply Military expertise and capabilities to its African partners.

For understandable reasons, many people in Africa are skeptical about US intentions. We both agree on that.

A few days ago I posted an article from the Washington Times in which Nigeria's National Security Advisor was requesting for the advertised expertise and capabilities. What you may not know is that a growing proportion of the Southern Nigerian political elite (who will be in power till at least 2015 and possibly further) increasingly see AFRICOM as a useful tool to use in dealing with the North.

On the other hand, the Northern elite and their foreign sympathizers take an entirely opposite view (this again is perfectly understandable).

These are still early days and if Boko Haram dramatically increases the intensity of its attacks, expect more desperate pleas for help to be made. Azazi (the NSA) and Jonathan will reason that if Museveni could get AFRICOM to hunt Joseph Kony, we could get AFRICOM to nab Abu Qaqa or (whoever we think is in charge of Boko Haram). It will at least prove that they are doing something about the dire security situation.

There could be serious political risks, but desperate men do desperate things.

If and when such requests are made, is the USG going to flat out reject them. Now, if you were going to reject such requests, what is the point in advertising your capabilities?

Consider this sequence:

1. USG creates AFRICOM
2. USG states that AFRICOM's mission is counter-terrorism, humanitarian aid etc.
3. US General in charge of AFRICOM pontificates on Boko Haram, Al Qaeda linkage as being one of the most serious potential national security challenges to US interets in Africa. General suggests that linkages have already occurred.
4. Nigerian national security advisor writes article, merely concurring with what US General said a few months earlier. Requests for help.
5. Situation gets out of hand, Nigerian NSA requests for significant physical assets.

Question: In a world in which (a) AFRICOM did not exist and (b) Senior US Military officers were not at liberty to comment on the internal affairs of African nations, would a Nigerian NSA openly request for US Military assistance?

Finally, all the talk about "administrative reshuffling" may be relevant to an American audience, but it isn't really relevant to an African audience. AFRICOM is here to stay and we will learn to live with it, but please think through the consequences.

Chowing

01-14-2012, 02:55 PM

Sorry, but with the exception of your point above, AFRICOM is but an administrative arm and should be staffed with the very best -- in order to support some of the very best soldiers -- in some of the most inhospitable places on earth. Incomprehensible, that people who have not the slightest idea, have no cultural nor language training, are responsible for supporting people like me in the heart of darkness.

I'm done ranting :D

Wow, you are right on and it is sad, maybe even a tragedy, that some of the best are not involved in AFRICOM. Language and culture training should be a must, that is what I tell my students. "You do not deserve the right to work, let alone possess the ability to show compassion and make a difference, if you do not take the time to learn how the people you are among think. That comes through a knowledge of language and culture. The lack of such proficiencies is what gives many people the impression that Americans are arrogant. ... Thats my rant.

I know you have acquired such skills...thanks for shinning a light that can be seen and felt.

Stan

01-14-2012, 03:07 PM

I may not be an expert on the workings of the US Military, but what we can both agree that in creating AFRICOM, the USG advertised that it was willing to supply Military expertise and capabilities to its African partners.

First off, I truly enjoy our discourse and your first hand knowledge is enlightening. While you obviously never served in the US Military under EUCOM or I guess AFRICOM, you do present us with some stark realities that most never thought to consider.

Now that I have massaged your ego, I'll drop the guillotine :D

Neither EUCOM nor AFRICOM were outright intended to be considered an ad campaign that the USG was willing to supply military expertise and capabilities to anyone. They are managers and support staff in their regional specific areas of operations. They are sadly not manned by area experts and every two years you get another batch of people who know even less than the last group.

For understandable reasons, many people in Africa are skeptical about US intentions. We both agree on that.

Concur 1,000 %. Therein lies cultural inadequacy and thickheaded Americans -- my way or the highway.

A few days ago I posted an article from the Washington Times in which Nigeria's National Security Advisor was requesting for the advertised expertise and capabilities. What you may not know is that a growing proportion of the Southern Nigerian political elite (who will be in power till at least 2015 and possibly further) increasingly see AFRICOM as a useful tool to use in dealing with the North.

On the other hand, the Northern elite and their foreign sympathizers take an entirely opposite view (this again is perfectly understandable).

These are still early days and if Boko Haram dramatically increases the intensity of its attacks, expect more desperate pleas for help to be made. Azazi (the NSA) and Jonathan will reason that if Museveni could get AFRICOM to hunt Joseph Kony, we could get AFRICOM to nab Abu Qaqa or (whoever we think is in charge of Boko Haram). It will at least prove that they are doing something about the dire security situation.

There could be serious political risks, but desperate men do desperate things.

If and when such requests are made, is the USG going to flat out reject them. Now, if you were going to reject such requests, what is the point in advertising your capabilities?

I'm hoping someone with far more intellect than I is weighing the consequences of assisting. But, the current Nigerian (recognized) government requesting assistance is the right starting point and may not involve military personnel. At this point the military are the wrong tool for the job. You should start seeing DTRA and Homeland along with DOJ/FBI as did I here almost 17 years ago.

Consider this sequence:

1. USG creates AFRICOM
2. USG states that AFRICOM's mission is counter-terrorism, humanitarian aid etc.
3. US General in charge of AFRICOM pontificates on Boko Haram, Al Qaeda linkage as being one of the most serious potential national security challenges to US interets in Africa. General suggests that linkages have already occurred.
4. Nigerian national security advisor writes article, merely concurring with what US General said a few months earlier. Requests for help.
5. Situation gets out of hand, Nigerian NSA requests for significant physical assets.

I tend to agree with your list, but I also recall that the good General indicated that BH was not capable of doing much more than causing trouble in Nigeria. I also recall that there are no concrete links (nor evidence) in any way, shape or form to Al Qaeda. Someone made mention of BH operating similar to AQ tactics. The examples given were used by the NVA in the 60s and in Zaire in the 90s, but yet, we didn't jump the AQ bandwagon then (perhaps AQ wasn't popular enough to use ?). With the internet, anyone can replicate popular use of explosives but I wouldn't sound off with AQ.

Question: In a world in which (a) AFRICOM did not exist and (b) Senior US Military officers were not at liberty to comment on the internal affairs of African nations, would a Nigerian NSA openly request for US Military assistance?.

Yes and no. The embassy has been around for decades and those same Nigerian government officials have always used those channels for whatever the reason. AFRICOM, BTW, is not a direct link to the Nigerian or USG, the embassy is and still is. In fact, without the US Ambassador's concurrence, AFRICOM's power is ZERO. It is the Department of State that has the lead and always had.

Finally, all the talk about "administrative reshuffling" may be relevant to an American audience, but it isn't really relevant to an African audience. AFRICOM is here to stay and we will learn to live with it, but please think through the consequences.

I couldn't agree more. If you recall in the AFRICOM thread I said the patch looks strange and the timing all wrong. They could have created a sub-section within EUCOM the very next day and staffed it without creating any fuss whatsoever. They could have sent 50 people to any large embassy in the region and still nothing. Someone back in D.C. needed something to do and that my friend is how the reshuffling starts.

Stan

01-14-2012, 03:23 PM

Wow, you are right on and it is sad, maybe even a tragedy, that some of the best are not involved in AFRICOM. Language and culture training should be a must, that is what I tell my students. "You do not deserve the right to work, let alone possess the ability to show compassion and make a difference, if you do not take the time to learn how the people you are among think. That comes through a knowledge of language and culture. The lack of such proficiencies is what gives many people the impression that Americans are arrogant. ... Thats my rant.

I know you have acquired such skills...thanks for shinning a light that can be seen and felt.

Thanks !
It is one of the very reasons I feel we collectively has miscalculated just what AFRICOM is both capable of and all about. But the bottom line in all this are those in country. You can't just ring your desk officer at AFRICOM if you have no clue what you are talking about, and expect someone equally incapable to form some conclusion and sell it to his/her boss.

We're not so arrogant as we are ignorant. Fair to say, we have a huge back yard and we definitely enjoy our freedom and way of life. I don't have a problem selling that to the former soviet states or to the Africans so long as we don't ignore what they endure and their way of doing things.

How is it we come from every corner of the globe and are culturally challenged :D

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 04:19 PM

I tend to agree with your list, but I also recall that the good General indicated that BH was not capable of doing much more than causing trouble in Nigeria. I also recall that there are no concrete links (nor evidence) in any way, shape or form to Al Qaeda. Someone made mention of BH operating similar to AQ tactics. The examples given were used by the NVA in the 60s and in Zaire in the 90s, but yet, we didn't jump the AQ bandwagon then (perhaps AQ wasn't popular enough to use ?). With the internet, anyone can replicate popular use of explosives but I wouldn't sound off with AQ.

This was what was reported in local media:

Commander of the United States military operations in Africa, Gen Carter Ham, yesterday said the Boko Haram group has links with al Quaeda and al Shabab –two established terror groups.
Gen. Ham told The Associated Press that “multiple sources” indicate that Boko Haram made contacts with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which operates in northwest Africa, and with al-Shabab in Somalia
“I think it would be the most dangerous thing to happen not only to the Africans, but to us as well,” Carter said.
Ham said there is no specific intelligence suggesting the groups plan attacks against U.S. or Western interests in Nigeria, but the nation is a major supplier of crude oil to the U.S. and is an economic hub drawing foreigners from across the world.
Ham said it appears Boko Haram may be splitting with one section focused on domestic issues and another on violent international extremism.

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/news/16365-boko-haram-has-links-with-al-qaeda-says-us-general.html

This is how it was reported in foreign media:

"I think it would be the most dangerous thing to happen not only to the Africans, but to us as well," Ham said. "What is most worrying at present is, at least in my view, a clearly stated intent by Boko Haram and by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb to coordinate and synchronize their efforts. I'm not so sure they're able to do that just yet, but it's clear to me they have the desire and intent to do that." Ham also touched on what he said could be a "loose" partnership with al-Shabab, which would mean Boko Haram's reach extends thousands of miles across the African continent.

A partnership between Boko Haram and AQIM, which operates in close proximity to Nigeria in Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Algeria, could explain the increased sophistication of recent Boko Haram attacks, including the use of Friday's car bomb. It could also mean an increase in cash flow for Boko Haram, which currently makes most of its money through taxes and by robbing banks throughout the Muslim northern half of the country. Heightened fear about an al-Qaeda link comes as religious tension explodes in already-tense central Nigeria. On Monday, Aug. 29, there were deadly clashes between bands of machete-wielding Christian and Muslim youths in the town of Jos, long a center of violence between northern Muslims and southern Christians.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2091137,00.html#ixzz1jRwXfWbr

What the good general said is that they could jolly well have the intent and capability of striking at Western targets in the near future (in association with Al Qaeda, Al Shabab and all the resident baddies). What our good General Azazi simply needs to do is to demonstrate an association between Al Qaeda, Al Shabab and Washington's latest bogeymen (shouldn't be too hard to do, after all, Chalabi and co pulled off Curveball. America doesn't tend to do that kind of due diligence very well).

When he does that the floodgates of the US treasury will be opened and trigger-happy Obama will be tempted to use his toys (drones).

KingJaja

01-14-2012, 05:06 PM

Neither EUCOM nor AFRICOM were outright intended to be considered an ad campaign that the USG was willing to supply military expertise and capabilities to anyone. They are managers and support staff in their regional specific areas of operations. They are sadly not manned by area experts and every two years you get another batch of people who know even less than the last group.

Once again, the perception and reality problem. In Europe, you are dealing with a fairly sophisticated set of people, many who have first-hand experience of how the Americans helped defeat Hitler and kept the Russians at bay.

Your policy makers once again, failed to understand the thinking of Africa's dictators / leaders. Granted, the likes of Mugabe will be opposed to AFRICOM under any circumstance. Zuma sees no need for it, because he has a relatively stable state and can handle most of his security challenges. The problem lies with everyone else.

Put yourselves in the shoes of an average African leader. His first response to AFRICOM is likely to be resistance and revulsion. After a while, he learns to live with AFRICOM and begins to explore ways on how to use AFRICOM to his advantage (no one becomes a leader of an African state without a certain amount of cunning). It starts with open and shut cases like Joseph Kony, but then it mutates into whacking off political opponents / undesirables. These men will learn how to press the right buttons, make the necessary concessions and commitments and use the right buzz words to force your hand.

Please understand that the last foreign power with significant and/or stated military interest in Africa were the French. What did the French do? They were/are heavily involved in the internal affairs of African states. No matter what you say or how much you protest, you will be dealing with some African leaders who are quite experienced in getting foreign Militaries involved in their internal affairs. It will not be as blatant as French involvement, but they are bound to be entanglements.

This is why your observation about AFRICOM staffers being inexperienced is doubly troubling. There is an implicit assumption in your comments that the US Military can simply come to Africa, state its rules of engagement and operate in Africa the same way it operates in the Continental United States. Or more succinctly put, the USG and US Military can simply use African Governments / African Militaries without corresponding requests from Africans.

You'll tell me that you have considered what the requests are likely to be and that humanitarian aid, supply of military equipment, military training and financial support will take care of Africans. What if the Africans demand significantly more as the cost of doing business? Have all these likely scenarios being considered?

In a sense, an Africa hostile to AFRICOM is better for the US than an Africa that fully embraces AFRICOM - at least until your top foreign policy wonks finally figure out what exactly the USG is supposed to be up to in Africa.

Stan

01-14-2012, 07:49 PM

Just between you and me, I take most of the wire feeds with a grain of salt and his background not being intelligence and his command having little to do with intel also has me wondering. Then there's this from yet another news source (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/in-nigeria-boko-haram-is-not-the-problem.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all):

Since August, when Gen. Carter F. Ham, the commander of the United States Africa Command, warned that Boko Haram had links to Al Qaeda affiliates, the perceived threat has grown. Shortly after General Ham’s warning, the United Nations’ headquarters in Abuja was bombed, and simplistic explanations blaming Boko Haram for Nigeria’s mounting security crisis became routine. Someone who claims to be a spokesman for Boko Haram — with a name no one recognizes and whom no one has been able to identify or meet with — has issued threats and statements claiming responsibility for attacks. Remarkably, the Nigerian government and the international news media have simply accepted what he says.

In late November, a subcommittee of the House Committee on Homeland Security issued a report with the provocative title: “Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to the U.S. Homeland.” The report makes no such case, but nevertheless proposes that the organization be added to America’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. The State Department’s Africa bureau disagrees, but pressure from Congress and several government agencies is mounting.

One does not self interpret raw intel and mold it to what seems to fit and is popular. Not his job.

Stan

01-14-2012, 08:10 PM

Your policy makers once again, failed to understand the thinking of Africa's dictators / leaders. Granted, the likes of Mugabe will be opposed to AFRICOM under any circumstance. Zuma sees no need for it, because he has a relatively stable state and can handle most of his security challenges. The problem lies with everyone else.

Couldn't agree more and policy makers have yet to step a foot outside US soil. I'd have all of them in the military for a year in Africa before they were even remotely permitted to talk, yet alone decide. But then, I couldn't even fathom what an African dictator would do with the power and wealth of America had he had free rein. You ?

Put yourselves in the shoes of an average African leader. His first response to AFRICOM is likely to be resistance and revulsion. After a while, he learns to live with AFRICOM and begins to explore ways on how to use AFRICOM to his advantage (no one becomes a leader of an African state without a certain amount of cunning). It starts with open and shut cases like Joseph Kony, but then it mutates into whacking off political opponents / undesirables. These men will learn how to press the right buttons, make the necessary concessions and commitments and use the right buzz words to force your hand.

I have already been there under EUCOM and changing the name has not made anything more repulsive or easier. I'll say it again: We are not prepared to play on the African ball field and with jungle rules. We therefore have no business there.

Please understand that the last foreign power with significant and/or stated military interest in Africa were the French. What did the French do? They were/are heavily involved in the internal affairs of African states. No matter what you say or how much you protest, you will be dealing with some African leaders who are quite experienced in getting foreign Militaries involved in their internal affairs. It will not be as blatant as French involvement, but they are bound to be entanglements.

Concur. But then, we have yet to establish any US Military involvement nor have we been able to establish that such involvement is warranted. I get where you're coming from and you get the fact that the US Military and AFRICOM do not pick their fights and do not determine their destinations.

This is why your observation about AFRICOM staffers being inexperienced is doubly troubling. There is an implicit assumption in your comments that the US Military can simply come to Africa, state its rules of engagement and operate in Africa the same way it operates in the Continental United States. Or more succinctly put, the USG and US Military can simply use African Governments / African Militaries without corresponding requests from Africans.

You do this a lot and I assume you don't mean me personally, but you as in the American public. My experiences (not observations) are a nightmare and nearly got me killed. I made no such assumption that we could simply come to Africa - I said we could have installed AFRICOM at any large US Embassy and I still say we can. The size of the embassy in your country and who does what there are under USG control with the permission of the host country. The USG plays by a different set of rules that most African dictators see as a means to garner money. They don't actually care about who and how many reside in the country under the Embassy umbrella and never really cared.

You'll tell me that you have considered what the requests are likely to be and that humanitarian aid, supply of military equipment, military training and financial support will take care of Africans. What if the Africans demand significantly more as the cost of doing business? Have all these likely scenarios being considered?

If you mean to say we have to pay bribes and entertain demands - then yes, I have seen and entertained far worse. There are however organizations and countries that take care of those issues - which are not part of the US Military.

In a sense, an Africa hostile to AFRICOM is better for the US than an Africa that fully embraces AFRICOM - at least until your top foreign policy wonks finally figure out what exactly the USG is supposed to be up to in Africa.

Not sure where you're going with that. The wonks in D.C. will come and go til the cows come home. You would have me figure out what a bunch of politicians conceive 7000 miles away ? I could care less to be frank - I'm retired dear young man !

KingJaja

01-15-2012, 07:05 PM

Just between you and me, I take most of the wire feeds with a grain of salt and his background not being intelligence and his command having little to do with intel also has me wondering. Then there's this from yet another news source:

You are quoting Jean Herskovits. Jean Herskovits has been writing about Nigeria since the 1970's but is badly compromised. It is very well known where her sympathies lie and you can see clearly from that article that she is merely rehashing the talking points of the Northern elite.

She skirts over the fact that someone, or some organisation has been waging a campaign of terror in Northern Nigeria to make claims like:

Meanwhile, Boko Haram has evolved into a franchise that includes criminal groups claiming its identity. Revealingly, Nigeria’s State Security Services issued a statement on Nov. 30, identifying members of four “criminal syndicates” that send threatening text messages in the name of Boko Haram. Southern Nigerians – not northern Muslims – ran three of these four syndicates, including the one that led the American Embassy and other foreign missions to issue warnings that emptied Abuja’s high-end hotels.

And last week, the security services arrested a Christian southerner wearing northern Muslim garb as he set fire to a church in the Niger Delta. In Nigeria, religious terrorism is not always what it seems.

Even if these claims are true, her purpose in repeating them is to absolve the Northern elite of responsibility and deflect the blame to Southern Nigeria. The aim is to show that Southern Nigerians are equally culpable for violence in Nigeria as certain elements in the North. This article is clearly designed for people who have very little knowledge of Nigeria.

An unbiased scholar would have considered the impact of Islamist inspired terror on Christian communities in Northern Nigeria, but once again, that is not part of this analysis.

This article raised a storm in Nigeria. As usual, only Muslims supported Herskovits view while Christians were indignant. A sample of some responses:

This is a paid writer that is out to twist history. It is obvious that the Nigerian Moslems are at war with Christians, our history as a troubled nation is as clear as crystal on this. This is the same tactics that the North used in 1914 that resulted in the amalgamation of two unlike entities that resulted in a dysfunctional country that we have today. The elites in the North know who Boko Haram is and now they have gone to pay a white woman to write garbage so as to turn our attention away from Boko Haram while they continue to kill Christians at will, and at their places of worship. The only problem that the South has now is the robotic president that is so afraid to take decisive decisions; how dare he declare state of emergency at city and local government levels instead of state levels.

thank you...your comment shows that there is hope in Nigeria...exactly what i had wanted to comment, you captured it completely....Atiku, IBB, Buhari and the disgruntled north have paid this woman to write for them,...they have now shifted from Campbell to a woman..I wish GEJ can continue even after 2015...so the country breaks down and people can have dignity from the hands of goats and sheeps called human that populate the north....

(Campbell refers to the former US ambassador John Campbell, he writes for the CFR. Most Southern Nigerians and Nigerian Christians oppose everything says and see him as a tool of Atiku Abubakar - Obasanjo's estranged former vice-president. The CFR is best advised to employ the services of another Nigerian expert to balance Campbell's views).

Both Jean Herskovits and Ambassador Terence P. McCulley are leading Lobbyists for the core Hausa Fulani interest in the United States hence their views though jaundiced and appears uninformed is actually a deliberate attempt to mislead the west, create empathy for an ignoble cum criminal cause such as Boko Haram and water down the unquantifiable loss christians suffer whenever the extremists strike.

I'll not only take her view with a pich of salt, I'll totally ignore it cos it makes no sense at all.

And this is what a Muslim sounding name had to say

Thanks to professor for been objective in her article. Let it be known to those that are not well acquainted with what our leader take the act of governance to be, to them it's a game of chance whereby they could toy with life of masses.Boko haram started by poor and unenlightened group of people on the basis that elected few enlighten and educated elite in the government are using the acquired western education to the detriment of masses but criminals has hijack the name and use it to perpetrate evils. Our press are not objective enough in addressing the issue, no much was heard when Muslim praying ground was bumb in Jos during Idil-fitr that claimed the life of many Muslim faithful.My question to those that not convince about the professorial submission of Jean Herskofit is how could a group of poor, unenlightened and uneducated people afford so much money to acquire and operate sophisticated weapons use by those criminals claimed to be Boko haram?

Combine this with General Azazi's article and you'll immediately understand that there is a high stakes game going on to influence US power brokers.

Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed offers a more balanced perspective in his commentary on her article.

The government and many leaders in the Christian community were shocked by a position which basically says Boko Haram is not a real problem; that it is now the cover for huge spending on security; for many criminal activities totally unrelated to its goals; and that the Nigerian government is to blame for its growth and expansion, if indeed it does exist. This perspective sees Herskovits’ essay as apologetic, dangerous and misleading, a virtual legitimization of a dangerous insurgency by an American who should know better. Saner comments asked how anyone with a deep knowledge about Nigeria as Herskovits does could dismiss the threat of Boko Haram as the manifestation of endemic poverty and injustice when there is evidence all over the place that an insurgency does exist around it with very clear goals and spectacular successes in their pursuit.

He goes on:

Another popular reaction came mostly from many northerners who had suspected for a while that powerful and more sinister forces have hijacked the Boko Haram brand and are now waging their own battles. According to this perspective, prime suspects in this category include subversives fighting the administration of President Jonathan who are not Boko Haram; heavily armed criminals copying its tactics; trained Christians who bomb state security agents and Christians to give Muslims a bad name; and even western powers – read the US – which want to dismember Nigeria, isolate and “deal” with its large (and potentially threatening) Muslim population. Then there is also the lingering suspicion that much of the violence being credited to the insurgency is being sustained by the agents of the Nigerian state and security agents because the fight against Boko Haram is just too lucrative to give up.

Read the rest of the commentary:

http://baba-ahmed.blogspot.com/2012/01/nigeria-armed-and-dangerous.html

KingJaja

01-15-2012, 10:19 PM

Sorry for my misuse of the term you.

The wider point is that just like the Chinese have set up shop in Africa as the "preferred low-cost infrastructure provider" the USG has set up shop in Africa . The Chinese are delivering.

The USG, in creating AFRICOM has unknowingly advertised itself as the "preferred security partner". The USG is also expected to deliver, but "delivering" means meeting the (reasonable) expectations of your African partners. (Although many in the US will argue that "delivering" means protecting US national security interests and nothing else - that will be a topic for another day).

There are risks in advertising yourself as the "preferred security partner" and the situation in Nigeria illustrates these risks. The discussions are still largely academic right now. A successful attack on the Abuja Hilton, the Sheraton or on any of the poorly secured locations where Western expatriates hang out will dramatically change the stakes. (If they can successfully strike the UN Headquarters at Abuja, there is a lot more they can do and they weren't targeting Nigerians when they struck the UN Headquarters).

The probability of such an event occurring in the near future is quite high, given the rapid evolution of Boko Haram (or whoever is hiding behind the Boko Haram label). If and when such an event occurs, it will (a) silence those who argue that the USG should not label Boko Haram as a "terrorist organisation" (b) prompt the Jonathan administration to extend an open invitation to AFRICOM (c) put AFRICOM under immense pressure to perform.

NB: The Brits will also be requested for help, but British involvement will be less controversial because they wisely refrained from creating an "AFRICOM-style" circus around their security activities in Africa. (Senior British Military officers don't comment on the internal affairs of African states).

Dayuhan

01-15-2012, 11:21 PM

In a sense, an Africa hostile to AFRICOM is better for the US than an Africa that fully embraces AFRICOM - at least until your top foreign policy wonks finally figure out what exactly the USG is supposed to be up to in Africa.

It would be nice to see reactions, whether hostile or friendly, that were based on what AFRICOM actually is, rather than on what it is imagined to be. As it is, we see some people embracing a mythical construct and others being hostile to it. Either way, it's still a mythical construct.

I don't suppose anything the US says or does will puncture that myth, though it may dissolve on its own over time.

KingJaja

01-16-2012, 01:33 AM

It would be nice to see reactions, whether hostile or friendly, that were based on what AFRICOM actually is, rather than on what it is imagined to be. As it is, we see some people embracing a mythical construct and others being hostile to it. Either way, it's still a mythical construct.

I don't suppose anything the US says or does will puncture that myth, though it may dissolve on its own over time.

Please, what exactly is AFRICOM?

AFRICOM could be many things, but at least you'd agree that it is:

1. An administrative reshuffle of the US military.
2. An expression of interest by the USG on security matters in Africa.
3. A major diplomatic statement.

Africans have very interest in (1) but (2) and (3) is an indication of how the US intends to behave in Africa in the coming decades.

Bill Moore

01-16-2012, 01:34 AM

Some insightful articles:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-01/nigeria-to-remove-subsidy-on-gasoline-pricing-agency-says-1-.html

President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration says ending the fuel allowance will help save 1.2 trillion naira ($7.5 billion) this year, or about 25 percent of the government’s 4.8 trillion naira spending plan. The money will be channeled instead toward capital projects.

“Removing the fuel subsidy will address significant inefficiencies in the economy and ultimately create the right environment for private-sector participation in the refining business,” Samir Gadio, a London-based emerging-market strategist at Standard Group Ltd., said by e-mail yesterday. “The fuel subsidy has translated into a sizable fiscal cost for the government which is not sustainable.”

http://leadership.ng/nga/articles/13386/2012/01/15/fuel_subsidy_discourages_competition_stifles_priva te_investment_%E2%80%93_ambassador.html

The envoy noted that in 2011, fuel subsidy was more than the aggregate sectoral allocation for education, health, power, agriculture and rural development as well as water resources.

He equally observed that from 2006 to 2011, more than N3.7 trillion was spent on subsidy and in 2011, N1.348 trillion was spent between January and October while N1.436 trillion was spent at the end of the year.

“This represents 30 per cent of total Federal Government's expenditure, 118 per cent of the capital budget and 4.18 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/15/us-nigeria-fractures-idUSTRE80E0FJ20120115

Jennifer Giroux, senior researcher for the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich University, says the fuel prices issue is "a common rallying point ... A unifying issue that has had an immediate impact on the majority of Nigerians, most of whom are making $2 a day or less."

"The next big faultline is the army, and how well they stay together ... If it splits, that is this country's nightmare."

"A really determined effort to stamp out corruption would itself be massively destabilizing. It can only be done gradually," Ellis said.

But until this happens, outbreaks of angry protests and violence are likely to recur in an energy-rich country that pumps 2 million barrels of oil a day with the help of oil majors like Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil, while its citizens face crumbling roads, abysmal public hospitals, chronic power shortages and an economy rigged in favor of powerful import oligarchs.

KingJaja

01-16-2012, 05:13 AM

Bill,

Interesting, but very few Nigerians were consulted - that means that a lot of information was left out.

This statement is totally false:

The biggest fear, Smith said, is that the army - whose upper ranks are all southern Christians, while junior officers and lower ranks are a mix of both from many geographical locations - could fracture if a section of it launches a mutiny.

Every Nigerian knows that the upper ranks of the Nigerian Army are not all southern Christians. That was an extremely unfortunate and potentially dangerous statement to make.

Will the Nigerian Army intervene? I doubt it. Dealing with various inter-ethnic / inter-religious crises has already taken a toll on the Nigerian Army. The leadership and the rank and file fully understand that intervention would be a step too far.

KingJaja

01-16-2012, 05:22 AM

Grapevine says that pump price of gasoline has been fixed at 97 naira (drop from previously deregulated price of about 141 naira). President to address the nation in about an hours time.

Draft copy of president's speech:

Presidential Address On The Implementation Of The Deregulation Policy In The Downstream Sector Of The Petroleum Industry, Sunday, January 15, 2012
________________________________________________
Dear Compatriots,
1. This is the second time in two weeks I will address you on the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. In the last seven days, the nation has witnessed a disruption of economic activities. Although, the economic imperatives for the policy have been well articulated by government, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) went ahead to declare a nationwide strike.

2. There was also near-breakdown of law and order in certain parts of the country as a result of the activities of some persons or groups of persons who took advantage of the situation to further their narrow interests by engaging in acts of intimidation, harassment and outright subversion of the Nigerian state. I express my sympathy to those who were adversely affected by the protests.
3. At the inception of the deregulation policy, Government had set up the Justice Alfa Belgore Committee to liaise with Labour and other stakeholders to address likely grey areas in the policy, but despite all our efforts, Labour refused the option of dialogue and also disobeyed a restraining order of the National Industrial Court of Nigeria.

4. However, following the intervention of the Leadership of the National Assembly, and other well-meaning Nigerians, Labour accepted to meet with government, but this yielded no tangible result.

5. It has become clear to government and all well-meaning Nigerians that other interests beyond the implementation of the deregulation policy have hijacked the protest. This has prevented an objective assessment and consideration of all the contending issues for which dialogue was initiated by government. These same interests seek to promote discord, anarchy, and insecurity to the detriment of public peace.

6. Government appreciates that the implementation of the deregulation policy would cause initial hardships and commends Nigerians who have put forth suggestions and credible alternatives in this regard. Government also salutes Nigerians who by and large, conducted themselves peacefully while expressing their grievances. Let me assure you that government will continue to respect the people's right to express themselves within the confines of the law and in accordance with the dictates of our democratic space.

7. Government will continue to pursue full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. However, given the hardships being suffered by Nigerians, and after due consideration and consultations with state governors and the leadership of the National Assembly, government has approved the reduction of the pump price of petrol to N97 per litre. The Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) has been directed to ensure compliance with this new pump price.

8. Government is working hard to reduce recurrent expenditure in line with current realities and to cut down on the cost of governance. In the meantime, government has commenced the implementation of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment projects: including the Federal Government- assisted mass transit programme which is already in place, and job creation for the youth.

9. Furthermore, the legal and regulatory regime for the petroleum industry will be reviewed to address accountability issues and current lapses in the Industry. In this regard, the Petroleum Industry Bill will be given accelerated attention. The report of the forensic audit carried out on the NNPC is being studied with a view to implementing the recommendations and sanctioning proven acts of corruption in the industry.

10. Let me assure Nigerians that this administration is irrevocably committed to tackling corruption in the petroleum industry as well as other sectors of the economy. Consequently, all those found to have contributed one way or the other to the economic adversity of the country will be dealt with in accordance with the law.

11. My dear compatriots, I urge you to show understanding for the imperatives of the adjustment in the pump price of petrol and give government your full support to ensure its successful implementation. I further appeal to Nigerians to go back to work and go about their normal duties as government has made adequate arrangements for the protection of life and property throughout the federation.

12. Government will not condone brazen acts of criminality and subversion. As President, I have sworn to uphold the unity, peace and order of the Nigerian State and by the grace of God, I intend to fully and effectively discharge that responsibility. Let me add that we are desirous of further engagements with Labour. I urge our Labour leaders to call off their strike, and go back to work.

13. Nigeria belongs to all of us and we must collectively safeguard its unity.

14. Thank you. God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
GOODLUCK EBELE JONATHAN, GCFR
President,
Federal Republic of Nigeria

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/breaking-news-president-jonathan-unilaterally-reduces-fuel-price-n97

KingJaja

01-16-2012, 05:36 AM

Very interesting read. Very blunt.

Over the past year, Nigeria’s homegrown terror group Boko Haram has escalated its deadly attacks against Christian and government targets, with the aim of establishing a Sharia state in the country’s north.

Nearly 30 years ago, in the largely Christian heartland of a multireligious Nigerian nation, and at that nation’s pioneer institution—the University of Ibadan—a minister of education summoned the vice chancellor and ordered him to remove a cross from a site dedicated to religious worship. Some Muslims had complained, he claimed, that the cross offended their sight when they turned east to pray.

The don’s response was: “Mr. Minister, it would be much easier to remove me as vice chancellor than to have me remove that cross.” Christians mobilized. A religious war was barely averted on campus. Today the Christian cross occupies that same spot, with the Islamic star and crescent raised only a few meters away. As I observed at a lecture several years later, there has been no earthquake beneath, no convulsions of the firmament above that space, no blight traceable to the cohabitation of that spot by Christian and Muslim symbols.

I evoked that occurrence when the latest torch bearers of fanaticism—a group called Boko Haram—emerged. I did so to draw attention to the fact that religious zealotry is not new in the nation, nor is it limited to the “unwashed masses” who have been programmed into killing, at the slightest provocation or none, in the name of faith. Unfortunately, far too many have succumbed to the belligerent face of fanaticism, believing that any form of excess is divinely sanctioned and nationally privileged.

Sectarian killings—numbered in the thousands—preceded Boko Haram, much organized butch-ery, sometimes announced in advance, always tacitly endorsed by silence and inaction, escalating in intensity and impunity. It was consciousness of the geographical expansion and the increasingly organized nature of the fanatic surge and its international linkages that compelled me to warn on three public occasions since 2009 that “the agencies of Boko Haram, its promulgators both in evangelical and violent forms, are everywhere. Even here, right here in this throbbing commercial city of Lagos, there are, in all probability, what are known as ‘sleepers’ waiting for the word to be given. If that word were given this moment, those sleepers would swarm over the walls of this college compound and inundate us

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/15/wole-soyinka-on-nigeria-s-anti-christian-terror-sect-boko-haram.html

KingJaja

01-16-2012, 05:57 AM

Closing paragraph:

Nigeria is at war. The Somalia scenario nibbles at her cohesion. When we insisted that the nation had become a prime target of al Qaeda, the reply was that Boko Haram was a homegrown phenomenon—as if this were ever the question! The reality is that it has, inevitably, developed ties with al Qaeda and its borderless company of religious insurgency. Only a few have sown the wind, but that wind was fanned by the breath of appeasement. Only one choice remains: to ride, or else reap, the whirlwind.

(Wole Soyinka won the Nobel prize in literature in 1985)

Stan

01-16-2012, 10:21 AM

Please, what exactly is AFRICOM?

AFRICOM could be many things, but at least you'd agree that it is:

1. An administrative reshuffle of the US military.
2. An expression of interest by the USG on security matters in Africa.
3. A major diplomatic statement.

Africans have very interest in (1) but (2) and (3) is an indication of how the US intends to behave in Africa in the coming decades.

AFRICOM is basically number one above, or, as the USG points out...

The U.S. Africa Command is a sub-unified command to U.S. European Command.

And from the folks at Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Combatant_Command) (I'm lazy today):

These commands are established to provide effective command and control of U.S. military forces, regardless of branch of service, in peace and war. They are organized either on a geographical basis (known as "Area of Responsibility", AOR) or on a functional basis. UCCs are "joint" commands with specific badges denoting their affiliation.

If the defense budget cuts go as planned, AFRICOM will be in the continental United States. Even farther from their target audience and even less effective :rolleyes:

Stan

01-17-2012, 12:34 PM

Nigeria cuts petrol prices, soldiers seize protest site (http://www.rnw.nl/africa/bulletin/nigeria-cuts-petrol-prices-soldiers-seize-protest-site)

Unions have vowed to press ahead with the strike, although they said they were calling off street protests due to security concerns voiced by Jonathan.

Soldiers set up roadblocks at key points in Lagos for the first time since the protests began, while demonstrators could not enter the park where they have been gathering for the past week as troops took it over.

davidbfpo

01-17-2012, 02:23 PM

Citing Stan:
If the defense budget cuts go as planned, AFRICOM will be in the continental United States. Even farther from their target audience and even less effective.

Not within my power:o, but how about Ascension Island for AFRICOM? It is sort of African, has an airfield (run by a US contractor); is UK territory, has virtually no civilians and would be a hardship posting - so like much of Africa - so smaller in size I suggest.:eek: Best if the staff are stamp collectors too.:wry: Sub-tropical climate.

See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascension_Island or http://www.ascension-island.gov.ac/

Stan

01-17-2012, 02:42 PM

Citing Stan:

Not within my power, but how about Ascension Island for AFRICOM? It is sort of African, has an airfield (run by a US contractor); is UK territory, has virtually no civilians and would be a hardship posting - so like much of Africa - so smaller in size I suggest.:eek: Best if the staff are stamp collectors too.:wry: Sub-tropical climate.

It's not a bad idea David. I have some very fond memories with our military aircraft using Ascension for a refueling point between Africa and South America. No one could even guess just how much fun those Brits have there between the weekend hash runs, Lemming Leap and of course the climate.

A great link (http://www.the-islander.org.ac/index.html) for anyone considering a brief RON - Say hello to the tower for me (from call sign Cedar Radio on one-eleven upper).

However, and a big however regarding a home for AFRICOM - similar to all the other commands... We leave a huge footprint wherever we go :D

Specifically, lots of service members, family, civilian employees, and a very large headquarters with housing, schools and sports field, shopping centers and all the normal things that the US Military do when it settles down some place.

Imagine the rent on that place ? I should have been into land sales while I was there (SIGH) :eek:

Stan

01-18-2012, 09:41 AM

and a police commissioner has been arrested :confused:

The next day, the suspect was taken to his home just outside the capital, which police intended to search.

The police view this development as a serious negligence on the part of the commissioner of police.

... youths surrounded the police cars and pandemonium broke out, our correspondent says - during which the suspect managed to escape.

In a statement quoted by AFP news agency, police said Boko Haram members had attacked police escorting Mr Sokoto.

This is either huge incompetence or worse on the part of the police, our correspondent says.

KingJaja

01-18-2012, 06:19 PM

and a police commissioner has been arrested

Supports the commonly held perception that Boko Haram sympathisers abound in government and security services. Boko Haram is increasingly being seen by Southern and Middle Belt Nigerians as a tool used by the Northern Muslim elite to destabilise the government of Goodluck Jonathan.

This is why what might appear as a black and white terrorist crisis to an American analyst sounds significantly more complicated to Nigerian ears.

Stan

01-18-2012, 08:09 PM

This is why what might appear as a black and white terrorist crisis to an American analyst sounds significantly more complicated to Nigerian ears.

Good point ! But, I'm an analyst's worst nightmare because I question the results and demand a reasonable answer based on fact, not opinion. Yet, even the Nigerian press avoids the "T" word and calls them anything else that comes to mind.

Arresting the police commissioner is a typical knee jerk reaction that will not appease the locals and only serves to reduce the current motivation of those even remotely interested in solving issues. Exactly how many police officials will be arrested before total chaos resumes ? Threatening an angry African is useless - even I knew that.

SWJ Blog

01-20-2012, 06:41 PM

Dialogue in Nigeria: Muslims & Christians Creating Their Future (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/dialogue-in-nigeria-muslims-christians-creating-their-future)

Entry Excerpt:

--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/dialogue-in-nigeria-muslims-christians-creating-their-future) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

KingJaja

01-20-2012, 09:39 PM

Boko Haram strikes Kano (Northern Nigeria's largest city and an important center of Islamic learning). The police hq and other government offices were hit. Local news reports that scores of people are dead.

Ladies and gentlemen, we might be dealing less with a terrorist organisation than with an undeclared civil war! Expect the exodus of Southern Nigerians from the North and vice versa to intensify.

Islamic fundamentalist sect, Boko Haram have reportedly bombed the Zone 1 Police Headquarters in Kano and other parts of the city in coordinated attacks.

The death toll is reportedly high.
Huge smoke was seen billowing from the scenes of the attacks which took place today.
More details about the casualties and extent of damage caused by the explosions to come in subsequent reports from our correspondent.
Boko Haram has been carrying out deadly attacks in several parts of Northern Nigeria, including the Christmas Day bomb attack at St Theresa’s Catholic Church which left at least 40 worshippers dead.
The suspected mastermind of that attack, Kabiru Umar, a.k.a. Kabiru Sokoto, was arrested last Sunday but allowed to escape by Zakari Biu, a notorious commissioner of police investigating the matter.

http://pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/01/20/boko-haram-bombs-kano-police-headquarters/

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 12:44 PM

One of the goals of terrorist groups is to grab headlines. Since these events have attracted very little attention in Western media, expect these people to up their game by attacking Westerners and thus grabbing headlines.

davidbfpo

01-21-2012, 03:38 PM

King Jaja commented (in part):
Since these events have attracted very little attention in Western media

The latest attacks in Kano have had headline coverage on the BBC, at lunchtime the radio news had a report from a reporter on the scene; two of the three "serious" put Nigeria on their website's front page.

Next part of his comment:
...expect these people (Boko Haram) to up their game by attacking Westerners and thus grabbing headlines.

Yes that is a possibility, I would assume there are several counter-balance facts, in particular the precautions taken to avoid being a victim of crime and kidnapping.

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 04:47 PM

The latest attacks in Kano have had headline coverage on the BBC, at lunchtime the radio news had a report from a reporter on the scene; two of the three "serious" put Nigeria on their website's front page.

They'll be off the headlines by this time tomorrow. Let's do a little experiment and compare the coverage of this event with the ship disaster off the coast of Italy.

Any terrorist group that wants detailed, sustained coverage in the Western media will attack Western targets.

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 04:57 PM

These are the locations attacked simultaneously in Kano:

1. Nigeria Police Zone 1 Headquarters, on BUK Road,

2. Zaria Road Police Station on Zaria Road

3. Farm Center Police Station at Farm Centre

4. Passport Office at Farm Centre

5. SSS Headquarters at Gigiyu

6. Immigration Headquarters at Bompai Road

7. The AIG Zone 1 Residence at Bompai Road

8. Police State Command Headquarters at Bompai Road.

The scale and sophistication of these attacks (150 dead and counting) could rank with the Mumbai terrorist attacks. I don't think we have fully grasped the magnitude of what we are dealing with here.

Bill Moore

01-21-2012, 05:30 PM

Posted by KingJaja,

Let's do a little experiment and compare the coverage of this event with the ship disaster off the coast of Italy.

Any terrorist group that wants detailed, sustained coverage in the Western media will attack Western targets

These are true comments, but isn't this good news in the long run? If one of the purposes of terrorism is to generate media coverage and that is denied to them, isn't that a small victory of sorts?

Western news is media for profit, and if the market isn't interested in Nigeria, Burma, or the killing fields of Cambodia then it doesn't get much coverage. The ship gets coverage because a lot of people can relate to it because they or their friends and families have taken cruises, so they can associate with it. That is just the way it is.

With the internet there are numerous niche sites (like SWJ) that try to stay current on these developments, but unless happens in Nigeria that makes people care, or you get a popular western reporter there that creates what we used to call the CNN effect I wouldn't expect much change.

Stan

01-21-2012, 05:31 PM

They'll be off the headlines by this time tomorrow. Let's do a little experiment and compare the coverage of this event with the ship disaster off the coast of Italy.

Any terrorist group that wants detailed, sustained coverage in the Western media will attack Western targets.

Have we determined what exactly they want other than a Muslim State ?
Have they made any demands that the Yankees should go home ?

I'm still of the opinion that those oil companies have a perceived responsibility for human rights abuses whether by action or omission -- they play a role. Getting rich has some inherent risks that they seem prepared to face.

The Nigerian government continues to not fund its share of the joint ventures operated by the multinationals, and plays the different oil companies against each other. The costs of paying bribes for political favors are certainly making things more expensive for the Nigerians.

Even BH can see that.

Stan

01-21-2012, 05:35 PM

With the internet there are numerous niche sites (like SWJ) that try to stay current on these developments, but unless happens in Nigeria that makes people care, or you get a popular western reporter there that creates what we used to call the CNN effect I wouldn't expect much change.

And the reports of Nigerian security blasting into the CNN office and inquiring about the expats certainly doesn't bode well for volunteer journalists on a shoestring budget :D

Chowing

01-21-2012, 05:49 PM

Stan

01-21-2012, 06:29 PM

President's hometown hit, just hours after Kano blasts. As Kingjaja says, what we are seeing could well be the beginning of the civil war many had been predicting.
http://pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/01/21/nigeria-car-bomb-rocks-bayelsa-capital/

Not to be a thorn herein, but seems the VP Sambo is about as popular as Goodluck with BH. Publicizing his every move makes bomb placement fairly easy and only helps them with staging insecurity where the government claims to have returned peace and stability.

Easy target --- too easy

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 06:34 PM

President's hometown hit, just hours after Kano blasts. As Kingjaja says, what we are seeing could well be the beginning of the civil war many had been predicting.

Seems to be more like the usual pre-election thuggery here (there's an important local election coming up).

Have we determined what exactly they want other than a Muslim State ?
Have they made any demands that the Yankees should go home ?

I'm still of the opinion that those oil companies have a perceived responsibility for human rights abuses whether by action or omission -- they play a role. Getting rich has some inherent risks that they seem prepared to face.

The Nigerian government continues to not fund its share of the joint ventures operated by the multinationals, and plays the different oil companies against each other. The costs of paying bribes for political favors are certainly making things more expensive for the Nigerians.

Even BH can see that.

Trust me, they are coming for the Yankees. Let's put rest to all the speculation and finally admit that they are allied with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda isn't that interested in the local stuff, they want to hurt America. Fortunately, most Americans live in the South, but a good number live in Abuja (and they have demonstrated the ability to strike in Abuja).

The Nigerian Military is going to be pinned down fighting several inter-ethnic clashes triggered by BH activity. That will give them ample room to plan and execute something really big against Western expatriates.

Chowing

01-21-2012, 07:09 PM

Seems to be more like the usual pre-election thuggery here (there's an important local election coming up).

Trust me, they are coming for the Yankees. Let's put rest to all the speculation and finally admit that they are allied with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda isn't that interested in the local stuff, they want to hurt America. Fortunately, most Americans live in the South, but a good number live in Abuja (and they have demonstrated the ability to strike in Abuja).

The Nigerian Military is going to be pinned down fighting several inter-ethnic clashes triggered by BH activity. That will give them ample room to plan and execute something really big against Western expatriates.

I do believe that there is some linkage between BH and al-Qaeda, to what extent, I am not sure. Stan will jump in and say I do not have facts to back that up and he will be correct.

On the other hand, Nigerians are highly educated compared to many places in Africa. Technologically, they are advanced. They are fully capable of pulling off such bombings without much or any outside training. They hold their own in many professions inside and outside of Nigeria. These home grown terrorists are not any different.

However, I would suspect that al-Qaeda will extend their reach as far as possible, especially in such an important nation as Nigeria.

Concerning expatriates, there were some casualties in the Kano bombings. Some Lebanese and Indians were injured near the SSS headquarters and I understand that that area of Kano is populated by many expats. Now I know that Lebanese and Indians are not westerners. There was also a Nigerian reporter working for BBC who was gunned down and killed while the bombs were being detonated.

Chowing

01-21-2012, 08:38 PM

Following modern tracking device recently installed by the Chinese at Force headquarters, Sokoto was traced to the lodge after he made several contacts with his members on new plans to carry out bombings in the FCT when he was arrested in company of the air force official.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/01/boko-haram-suspects-escapehow-high-level-complicity-aided-sokotos-escape/

I am wondering what role the Chinese are playing with the Nigerian police and security forces? Or, is this just speaking of some equipment they purchased from the Chinese.

Stan

01-21-2012, 09:45 PM

Seems to be more like the usual pre-election thuggery here (there's an important local election coming up).

Seems a more reasonable conclusion.

Trust me, they are coming for the Yankees. Let's put rest to all the speculation and finally admit that they are allied with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda isn't that interested in the local stuff, they want to hurt America. Fortunately, most Americans live in the South, but a good number live in Abuja (and they have demonstrated the ability to strike in Abuja).

You may recall it being me surprised they have yet to go after 25,000 westerners. Apparently the strike in Abuja was about something else (for the moment). BH has demonstrated they can operate in Nigeria with little resistance, they have demonstrated they have a sympathetic reach with the military, and, they have demonstrated they have connections within the government. They could have gone after the westerners that live in the south long ago - nothing is holding them back. I have seen nothing aside from blogs that indicates some connection with anyone outside of Nigeria and it seems, they really have little use for outside assistance.

The Nigerian Military is going to be pinned down fighting several inter-ethnic clashes triggered by BH activity. That will give them ample room to plan and execute something really big against Western expatriates.

They have had that advantage from day one with the Nigerian military and police.

Stan

01-21-2012, 09:52 PM

Stan will jump in and say I do not have facts to back that up and he will be correct.

Hey, I have no problem with your opinions and I doubt you have a problem with mine. Sorry, I'm stuck on some solid form of proof.

On the other hand, Nigerians are highly educated compared to many places in Africa. Technologically, they are advanced. They are fully capable of pulling off such bombings without much or any outside training. They hold their own in many professions inside and outside of Nigeria. These home grown terrorists are not any different.

I actually completely agree and even the Zairois with nearly a 6th grade education were making similar explosive devices without outside assistance or even an internet connection.

Concerning expatriates, there were some casualties in the Kano bombings. Some Lebanese and Indians were injured near the SSS headquarters and I understand that that area of Kano is populated by many expats. Now I know that Lebanese and Indians are not westerners. There was also a Nigerian reporter working for BBC who was gunned down and killed while the bombs were being detonated.

It's too bad that those who perished are not considered part of the westerners and so easily dismissed without even a sentence in an article.

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:03 PM

You may recall it being me surprised they have yet to go after 25,000 westerners. Apparently the strike in Abuja was about something else (for the moment). BH has demonstrated they can operate in Nigeria with little resistance, they have demonstrated they have a sympathetic reach with the military, and, they have demonstrated they have connections within the government. They could have gone after the westerners that live in the south long ago - nothing is holding them back. I have seen nothing aside from blogs that indicates some connection with anyone outside of Nigeria and it seems, they really have little use for outside assistance.

When they attacked the UN Building at Abuja (which I think you alluded to) a few months ago, they weren't looking for Nigerians, they were looking for Westerners. Right now, their immediate aims are to drive a permanent wedge between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria - this appears to be an easy and straight forward goal.

If you also understand that (a) they want to rid the North of all Christians and (b) Westerners are considered Christians, you'll understand quite quickly the next group they are likely to strike.

This is a translation of the leaflet they passed around in Kano during/after the bombing. (NB: They are confident enough to pass leaflets).

In the name of God, the most beneficent and merciful.
We are the ones that they address with the prohibited name Boko Haram, when our name is Jama’atu Ahlus Sunnah Lidda Awati Wal Jihad (Congregation of Followers of the Prophet involved in the Call to Islam and Religious Struggle)
This message is to the people of Kano. You should know that the security (Police) in Kano are using tricks in arresting our people, that is they tell people in different neighborhoods that they are arresting thieves or armed robbers – you should know that it is our people that they are arresting.
We do not have any intention of touching any people of this town if they do not touch us. Because our war is with the Government that is fighting Islam with the Christian association of Nigeria (CAN) that are killing Muslims even eating their flesh and those who helped them to fight us even if they are Muslims.
Anyone who is instrumental to the arrest of our members is assured that their own is coming.
Message from the leader of Jama’atu Ahlus Sunnah Lidda Awati Wal Jihad
Imam Abubakar Muhammad Abubakar bin Mohammed (Shikau)

http://www.informationnigeria.org/2012/01/boko-haram-drops-leaflets-all-over-kano-after-bombings-translated.html

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:06 PM

I am wondering what role the Chinese are playing with the Nigerian police and security forces? Or, is this just speaking of some equipment they purchased from the Chinese.

ZTE is installing a $500 million CCTV system in Abuja and the Nigerian Airforce flies Chinese-made planes. There's a lot more the Chinese are doing behind the scenes like supplying equipment, surveillance satellite assistance etc.

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:11 PM

Concerning expatriates, there were some casualties in the Kano bombings. Some Lebanese and Indians were injured near the SSS headquarters and I understand that that area of Kano is populated by many expats. Now I know that Lebanese and Indians are not westerners. There was also a Nigerian reporter working for BBC who was gunned down and killed while the bombs were being detonated.

There are probably more Indians and Lebanese in Nigeria than Westerners. They are also more likely to live among the locals (and in the case of the Lebanese in Northern Nigeria), speak the local language.

There aren't too many Westerners living in Northern Nigeria but a sizable number live at Abuja. Abuja is very target rich in that regard.

I suspect that BH are doing some recce on the Abuja Sheraton, Hilton and residential areas. I doubt they will attempt the US embassy (too well guarded), but there is a lot they can do within Abuja, especially during some of the frequent traffic jams.

Stan

01-21-2012, 10:28 PM

When they attacked the UN Building at Abuja (which I think you alluded to) a few months ago, they weren't looking for Nigerians, they were looking for Westerners. Right now, their immediate aims are to drive a permanent wedge between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria - this appears to be an easy and straight forward goal.

I'm not sure what their goal was but it certainly meant they could have done far worse damage elsewhere had they wanted to.

If you also understand that (a) they want to rid the North of all Christians and (b) Westerners are considered Christians, you'll understand quite quickly the next group they are likely to strike.

As I said, I'm really surprised they have yet to go after higher profile targets. They have proven they can.

This is a translation of the leaflet they passed around in Kano during/after the bombing. (NB: They are confident enough to pass leaflets).

Where is it that the leaflets were passed around? More likely left and eventually made the rounds among the population.

We do not have any intention of touching any people of this town if they do not touch us. Because our war is with the Government that is fighting Islam with the Christian association of Nigeria (CAN) that are killing Muslims even eating their flesh and those who helped them to fight us even if they are Muslims.

Some of the Africa forums claim that the text is in a Niger dialect and that the above para is mere gibberish.

Is there a hidden message in there ?

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:39 PM

Some of the Africa forums claim that the text is in a Niger dialect and that the above para is mere gibberish.

Is there a hidden message in there ?

Niger is very close to Kano.

What exactly is the difference between a Hausa Muslim from Niger and a Hausa Muslim from Nigeria? European colonial rule created several artificial borders that have little relevance in the daily lives of millions of Africans.

When the Nigerian president ordered Nigeria's borders to be closed, what exactly did that mean in practice? Not much. Some villages in Northern Nigeria share a common boundary with villages in Niger and people and goods move on trade routes that have been in existence for more than a thousand years.

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:44 PM

The leaflet

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dNLrMx3Nop4/TxnrwCcOE5I/AAAAAAAAAwo/eOadJh4Bz3k/s400/BH.jpg

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-851167.0.html

KingJaja

01-21-2012, 10:50 PM

The Hausas are the predominant ethnic group in Islamic Northern Nigeria

The Hausa are one of the largest ethnic groups in West Africa. They are a Sahelian people chiefly located in northern Nigeria and southeastern Niger, but having significant numbers living in regions of Cameroon, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Chad and Sudan. Predominantly Hausa communities are scattered throughout West Africa and on the traditional Hajj route across the Sahara Desert, especially around the town of Agadez.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hausa_people

They know their way around the Sahara Desert. I.e. they can smuggle stuff from Libya, Algeria, Egypt etc without being detected.

KingJaja

01-22-2012, 12:04 PM

It seems as if Nigeria is on the brink of another Civil War.

What is shocking is that the rest of the World has very little appreciation for the magnitude of the problem in Nigeria - nothing is the news media suggests that. Nobody is talking about - instead we have the daily grind of irrelevant nit-picking surrounding the Republican Presidential primaries.

The most important nation in West Africa stands a real risk of implosion and nobody seems to care. Anyway, if the World could stand by unconcerned when Congo disintegrated into violence , I don't think they would pay too much attention to Nigeria either.

Anyway, for those of you who are interested, details of the latest Boko Haram attack.

Fresh attacks kill nine in northern Nigeria as police hunt Boko Haram bombers
Muslim gunmen killed nine people and wounded 12 others in the latest round of religious violence to hit northern Nigeria, a community elder said.

The attack, in the early hours of Sunday morning, came less than a day after Boko Haram, Nigeria’s Islamist separatist insurgents, said it carried out coordinated bombings that left as many as 160 people dead on Friday night.
Bukata Zhyadi, traditional elder of a Christian ethnic group, said nine bodies had been found at dawn on Sunday in the town of Tafawa Balewa in Bauchi state.
“We are going around the town checking [for more],” he said. Twelve people were wounded, he said, adding that witnesses blamed the attack on a Muslim ethnic group.
Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s president, promised immediate action to find the men who ordered multiple blasts on Friday night in Kano, northern Nigeria’s main city.
Morgues were full and bodies were being stored in corridors on Sunday morning as emergency services continued to find fresh victims of the blasts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/9030752/Fresh-attacks-kill-nine-in-northern-Nigeria-as-police-hunt-Boko-Haram-bombers.html

By the close of business today, CNN and BBC would have removed Boko Haram from their headlines and we will be treated to another week of headlines surrounding the Costa Concordia crash, then another week surrounding the trial of the captain of the cruise ship, then another week of silly gossip about Newt Gingrich or something else that is of little relevance to those of us who live in West Africa.

Stan

01-22-2012, 07:13 PM

United States to Engage With Nigeria on Regional Security (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/01/182300.htm)

A U.S. delegation co-chaired by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs William Fitzgerald and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Joseph McMillan will meet with Nigerian government officials January 23-24 to discuss regional security cooperation.

... The working group is expected to discuss areas of cooperation for addressing the professionalization of security responses to extremism, political responses to security threats, and the role of development in improving security.

KingJaja

01-22-2012, 08:43 PM

Great, but the US has a history of partnering with Nigeria on regional security (usually involves US money and Nigerian lives). The deeper question what can the US do, given that the Nigerian security services are deeply compromised.

Let me give you an example, a few days ago, a prime suspect in the Christmas day bombing was arrested at the Borno State Governor's lodge in Abuja. He was allowed to escape by a senior police officer from Nigeria's North East.

So it is becoming clear that Boko Haram has infiltrated the Nigerian security services.

Second point, the Nigerian Police doesn't even have an accurate record of staff on its payroll. So you don't even know where to begin from.

Boko Haram has exposed the weaknesses in intelligence gathering. I know that the US has strengths in SIGINT, but you what if they decide to use carriers or messengers on the overnight buses between Kano and Abuja?

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 10:26 AM

Hidden subtext: Boko Haram weakens the North, other regions see an opportunity to restructure Nigeria to their advantage.

The mistake many Western analysts make is that all Nigerians would react to Boko Haram the same way Americans reacted to 9/11. No, many influential power brokers see an opportunity to eliminate a common enemy - the powerful elite of Muslim North. They will milk this crisis for all its worth, getting the US to support a Southern president on counter-terrorism, weakening the influence of Northern legislators, putting the North on the defensive.

POLITICAL and opinion leaders of the oil-rich Niger Delta region were, at the weekend, unanimous in their call for the proper re-structuring of Nigeria along lines peculiar to the various beliefs, thoughts and aspirations of the nationalities of the country.

Besides, they contended that the uprising of the Islamist sect, Boko Haram, has more to do with politics than religion.

Renowned professor of constitutional law, Itsey Sagay, pioneer National Secretary of the Ijaw National Congress (INC), Chief Francis Williams, National Coordinator of the Niger-Delta Economic Monitoring Group (NDEMG), Comrade Joseph Evah, as well as chairman of the Ijaw Media Forum, Chief Asu Beks, both blamed the nation’s structural imbalance for the Boko Haram menace, saying, time has come to discuss the very essence of Nigeria’s unity.

While the duo of Evah and Beks accused a former National Security Adviser (NSA) as the unseen hand behind the spate of bombings in the country, former Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Festus Porbeni, called for caution, as the nation grapples with the insurgency of the dreaded Islamist sect.

Sagay said: “The insurgency of the Boko Haram menace has, again brought to the fore the inevitability of a national discourse that will discuss the myriad problems facing this nation; we cannot run away from this. Whether we like it or not, the group has made it clear that it wants the introduction of governments along Islamic injunctions across the nation. Fine, that is one of the cardinals of true federalism that some of us have fought for all the years but not the way they go about it, taking innocent lives. I think that is why some may rightly argue that their activities are more political than religion.

“But then, President Jonathan has a duty to help himself. He knows that the issue of Boko Haram is very much there with every possibility of political undertone; but is it not the same constituency, I mean the civil society, that made him president against all odds that he is fighting? He should help himself by being less controversial outside Boko Haram.”

http://www.tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/34760-boko-haram-its-time-to-discuss-our-unity-ndelta-leaders-seast-govs-to-convene-stakeholders-meeting

There are many in the South working feverishly to ensure that the major fallout from this crisis is a fatal weakening of the Northern elite. They still have up to 2015 to complete their work and they seem to be on track.

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 12:01 PM

This is the problem. You cannot get involved in counter-terrorism without inserting yourself in the internal politics of the host region/country.

Presently, Western analysts like Jean Herskovits and John Campbell (CFR) are being labelled as apologists for Boko Haram by Christians/Southern Nigerians for suggesting that the US should not label Boko Haram a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, most Nigerian Muslims from the North are opposed to that move.

AS Boko Haram continues to launch terrorist attacks in the country, a deliberate lobby is going on in the US to frustrate American government’s attempt to label the sect a terrorist group.

Consequently, the Federal Government may be hiring an American lobbying firm to scuttle the lobby and represent Nigeria’s interest in the matter.

Informed sources, during the week, told The Guardian that soon after November last year’s hearing by the US House of Representatives on the global threat of Boko Haram, the US State Department came under pressure from lawmakers to impose the label of a terrorist group on the militant Islamic group.

But at about the same time, some influential groups of intellectuals, and policy think tanks in the US are canvassing publicly and within the US government circles to oppose the plans to designate Boko Haram as a terrorist organization.

If the US government goes ahead to designate Boko Haram a terrorist group, the move will activate the use of US government resources to confront the group, identify its financing, and cut it off as much as possible, while also legally enabling the government to adopt other measures to stigmatise and isolate the terrorist group.

While the Nigerian government’s views are not being sought openly by the US on the matter, a Nigerian Minister was so concerned during a recent visit to the US capital about what the minister described as a “concerted effort” against Nigeria by the intellectuals and some policy think-tanks trying to downplay the Boko Haram threat in the US and lobby against the designation of the sect as terrorist.

In order to counter the lobby, the Federal Government is now considering hiring a US lobbying firm to scuttle the lobby, since the pro-Boko Haram arrowheads are cautioning the US government not to make the Islamic group an enemy of the Americans, in direct opposition to the recommendations of the US House of Representatives, which authored an authoritative report on the real threat posed by Boko Haram, even to the US.

Commenting on the matter, Nigeria’s Ambassador to the US, Prof Ade Adefuye, confirmed that indeed “the U S House of representatives intends to take hearings from Nigerians in the US on the desirability, or otherwise, of declaring Boko Haram a terrorist organisation and a danger to US interest.”

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-852086.0.html

Given the increase in the intensity and sophistication of terrorist attacks by Boko Haram, it is not a question of if, but when the US labels Boko Haram a foreign terrorist organisation. When that happens, expect the US to lose some support from the predominantly Muslim parts of Northern Nigeria. There is also a possibility that some prominent Northern politicians could have ties to Boko Haram.

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 12:19 PM

Is this a wise thing to say in public?

Christians will be overjoyed, but this sort of thing doesn't play very well in the Muslim street.

Israel has offered to assist Nigeria in tackling the menace of terrorism in the country.

The Deputy Head of Mission of the Israeli Embassy, Mr George Deek made the announcement at a gathering in Abuja.

Drawing examples of terrorism in Israel, Mr Deek said the embassy is willing to provide assistance to Nigeria in training and equipping Nigeria’s security agencies on counter terrorism to halt the menace eating up the Federal Government of Nigeria and the citizens.

"We are willing to help Nigeria fish out and expose the aliens who are perpetrators of the heinous and inhuman acts of terrorism and the technical knowledge of how to prevent suicide bombing is intelligence because without intelligence you cannot prevent and pre-empt a suicide bomber.
We want to assist Nigerians on how to encounter these aliens because Nigeria is our neighbour which must not be left alone at this trying period."Mr. Geroge Deek said.

He called on the Federal Government to put in place strong policy to combat terrorism, adding, “The government and the people should exercise a very strong policy to prevent and pre-empt such occurrences with an iron face by not allowing terrorist determine its way of life.”

http://channelstv.com/global/news_details.php?nid=31120&cat=Local

Firn

01-23-2012, 12:28 PM

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 03:33 PM

Somehow even the most terrific news out of Africa makes little waves in the international media, even less so if the West is not directly involved. In this regard little has changed in the last twenty years.

That is why Al Jazeera tends to be popular down here. They tend to spend a little bit more time and energy covering African stories in a bit more detail.

Stan

01-23-2012, 03:34 PM

Great, but the US has a history of partnering with Nigeria on regional security (usually involves US money and Nigerian lives). The deeper question what can the US do, given that the Nigerian security services are deeply compromised.

Indeed a lot of money over the last five years according to this State link (http://foreignassistance.gov/dataview.aspx?search_string=nigeria&image.x=0&image.y=0).

The rest of the equation is up to the Embassy to provide and guide the assistance package. Not so easy and I doubt it will result in the boogeyman (AFRICOM) coming in and killing the BH crowd.

More training and advice I suspect :rolleyes:

Let me give you an example, a few days ago, a prime suspect in the Christmas day bombing was arrested at the Borno State Governor's lodge in Abuja. He was allowed to escape by a senior police officer from Nigeria's North East.

So it is becoming clear that Boko Haram has infiltrated the Nigerian security services.

Second point, the Nigerian Police doesn't even have an accurate record of staff on its payroll. So you don't even know where to begin from.

Boko Haram has exposed the weaknesses in intelligence gathering. I know that the US has strengths in SIGINT, but you what if they decide to use carriers or messengers on the overnight buses between Kano and Abuja?

Completely concur - sounds like me talking to myself.

Stan

01-23-2012, 03:38 PM

That is why Al Jazeera tends to be popular down here. They tend to spend a little bit more time and energy covering African stories in a bit more detail.

The other half of that story is the fact that most of the African news sounds all the same to a common westerner who has never been to the continent. My sister opined, "what's the difference?" "Sounds just like your time in Zaire since 85 - killing, raping and absconding with the govt coffers while the public starves."

I had a hard time arguing my point !

Stan

01-23-2012, 03:40 PM

Is this a wise thing to say in public?

Christians will be overjoyed, but this sort of thing doesn't play very well in the Muslim street.

http://channelstv.com/global/news_details.php?nid=31120&cat=Local

May not be the best thing to publicize, but they will get the job done a lot faster and cleaner.

Stan

01-23-2012, 03:46 PM

This is the problem. You cannot get involved in counter-terrorism without inserting yourself in the internal politics of the host region/country.

Exactly and we do not belong there. But, it is apparently clear that the Nigerian government is powerless and most fear the military more than that of the BH.

Given the increase in the intensity and sophistication of terrorist attacks by Boko Haram, it is not a question of if, but when the US labels Boko Haram a foreign terrorist organisation. When that happens, expect the US to lose some support from the predominantly Muslim parts of Northern Nigeria. There is also a possibility that some prominent Northern politicians could have ties to Boko Haram.

In order for the US to label BH a terrorist organization would mean they start doing something else besides attacking the Nigerian government and military. So far, that is all they have done. Educated and organized - yes. Sophisticated ? I disagree. Driving by on a scooter and running into a building with a bag of explosives is not sophisticated IMO - it's suicide.

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 04:42 PM

In order for the US to label BH a terrorist organization would mean they start doing something else besides attacking the Nigerian government and military. So far, that is all they have done. Educated and organized - yes. Sophisticated ? I disagree. Driving by on a scooter and running into a building with a bag of explosives is not sophisticated IMO - it's suicide.

So in essence you guys are waiting for them to have a go at US expatriates lodging in the Sheraton or for them to attack the weakly guarded residences of US expatriates at Abuja?

So an organisation that successfully executed a Mumbai-style terrorist attack on the second largest city in Nigeria, killing 250 people, isn't terrorist?

Okay, I get it, the victims are all bloody Africans, so they don't matter.

The other half of that story is the fact that most of the African news sounds all the same to a common westerner who has never been to the continent. My sister opined, "what's the difference?" "Sounds just like your time in Zaire since 85 - killing, raping and absconding with the govt coffers while the public starves."

I had a hard time arguing my point !

Generally true, but Americans tend to be the least informed and the least interested. It is interesting to note that the same America that expects the entire World to mourn with it when a little girl is murdered, couldn't be bothered about the deaths of 250 men, women and children.

It's mostly down to ignorance, but it comes across as arrogance and callousness.

This is the American order of concern: (a) themselves (b) Israelis (c) Western Europeans (d) Australians / New Zealanders and (e) Japanese. The rest of the World (next door neighbours in Latin America like the Mexicans included) isn't really considered as being human.

For example, a Mexican-style slow-burn Civil War in a Western European nation far away would attract much more attention from American news media .

Chowing

01-23-2012, 05:21 PM

Let me give you an example, a few days ago, a prime suspect in the Christmas day bombing was arrested at the Borno State Governor's lodge in Abuja. He was allowed to escape by a senior police officer from Nigeria's North East.

So it is becoming clear that Boko Haram has infiltrated the Nigerian security services.

It might be of significance that just a short time after his escape the bombs were detonated in Kano.

Stan

01-23-2012, 05:53 PM

So in essence you guys are waiting for them to have a go at US expatriates lodging in the Sheraton or for them to attack the weakly guarded residences of US expatriates at Abuja?

You Guys ? I don't, and have never desired to, work for the folks that label people. But, if there is no criterion then everybody would eventually be labelled and the other half would also complain. I sincerely doubt those expats (I am one and have been one BTW since 97 when I retired) would lodge the DOS from under their rock. But, You wanted international recognition and damnation - that is about what it will take. I am only sharing my experience with you and have my doubts about those lost souls meaning much. I watched 4,000 people a day die and tossed onto the edge of the road with little western journalism. Why would "I" now conclude that the 250 you mentioned are going to cause a ruckus ?

So an organisation that successfully executed a Mumbai-style terrorist attack on the second largest city in Nigeria, killing 250 people, isn't terrorist?.

See, that's just it - people copying others in any city of your choosing should automatically label them as terrorists. Even your own press won't call them terrorists. WTF ? Maybe you should be asking them why they are afraid to use the T word.

Instead of immediately labeling the BH as terrorists, maybe one should consider the fact that Nigeria's security services are not up to the task of reviewing anecdotal evidence and learning from others and their mistakes. Or, as you stated, your security services are infected and that should have also been dealt with swiftly vs letting fester and grow.

This is the American order of concern: (a) themselves (b) Israelis (c) Western Europeans (d) Australians / New Zealanders and (e) Japanese. The rest of the World (next door neighbours in Latin America like the Mexicans included) isn't really considered as being human.

For example, a Mexican-style slow-burn Civil War in a Western European nation far away would attract much more attention from American news media .

You nailed it ! But, instead of including all Americans you should have specifically stated that your list is our political elite who draw the lines and my pathetic opinion means jack to them.

I have lived and worked in Mexico and they have been on a course with disaster since 1974. Maybe we should look at what it took in WWII for the Yanks to get engaged. I don't blame them for being gun shy. I do blame them for not understanding the region and putting on the brakes.

Stan

01-23-2012, 05:59 PM

It might be of significance that just a short time after his escape the bombs were detonated in Kano.

Dead on the money !
A serious vetting process is in order, or, as Jaja stated, nobody will ever know who is who. Organized criminals do this professionally and can mimic anything they damn well please.

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 06:26 PM

Dead on the money !
A serious vetting process is in order, or, as Jaja stated, nobody will ever know who is who. Organized criminals do this professionally and can mimic anything they damn well please.

I now have my doubts as to whether the man who was allowed to escape had anything to do with the Christmas bombing. The Nigerian Police has a habit of randomly picking up people from the street and charging them for crimes they did not commit - simply to deflect attention from their incompetence.

They could have picked up this guy in error and then realised that even though he isn't completely clean he (a) has nothing to do with the Xmas day bombings and (b) has powerful godfathers. So he is let go.

This sort of thing has happened so many times in Nigeria that I have zero confidence in the Nigerian Police.

Secondly, it takes a lot more than organized crime to motivate suicide bombers and we have been attacked by several suicide bombers over the past year.

It takes a charismatic religious/nationalist/revolutionary figure to sufficiently motivate a young man to take his life for a cause. This isn't political thuggery - political thugs expect to live after the event, and to be paid.

Thirdly, and unrelated - eye witness reports state that BH foot soldiers in Kano were youth between the ages of 15 and 18 (essentially children). This is extremely worrying. Seems as if they have tapped into the huge supply of Almajiri children in local madrassas (just like Wole Soyinka alluded to in his essay).

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 06:48 PM

Totally unrelated.

I am in love with Al Jazeera. They devoted a thirty minute segment to the post-election violence in Kenya and the indictment of Uhuru Kenyatta and co. at the Hague.

Impossible for a Western media outlet to cover an African topic in such detail.

Look out for another thirty minute segment on Boko Haram in the near future.

Also, have you noticed that Al Jazeera tends to cover Latin American, Africa and even South Asian topics in more detail than Western media? I recall watching a detailed segment on urban development in India.

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 07:08 PM

Interesting line of thought from a friend.

Goodluck Jonathan is an Ijaw from the Niger Delta. Ninety-five percent of Nigeria's export earnings come from crude oil in the Niger Delta. The Northern elite seems to be telling the rest of Nigeria through Boko Haram that they don't want to be part of a united Nigerian state.

Fine, if that is the case, let them go and we have about 40 million less people to worry about when sharing the proceeds from crude sales. After all, the North can disappear in an instant and it wouldn't make a dent on Nigeria's economy.

What do you guys think about this line of reasoning?

KingJaja

01-23-2012, 07:20 PM

How useful is this article or is it bravo sierra?

Nigeria would be engaged in multipartite civil war like it happened in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991 before its final disintegration in 2030, a report by the United States military experts released by the Centre for Strategy and Technology, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama has said.
The report written by five US military scholars and entitled “Failed State 2030: Nigeria – A case study” and dated February 2011, is one of the many periodic scenario building analysis undertaken by the US military think tanks on the future of countries within the sphere of economic interests of the US.
One of such simulated security dissertation on Nigeria was released during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo by the US National Intelligence Council, where the US intelligence experts predicted Nigeria’s collapse in 2015.
In the 156 page latest report, the US Air Force officers posit that “Nigeria’s lack of unifying national identity, history of corrupt governance, religious and cultural schisms, and shifting demographics may cause the state, over time, to break apart.”
In the case of Nigeria in 2030, the experts believed that Nigeria’s “history of tribal and religious conflicts, endemic corruption at all levels of government, poor national planning, uneven development, social disorder, rampant criminality, violent insurgency, and terminal weak governance provides an environment that could portend imminent collapse and failure.”
But the military scholars explained that the security report is “not a specific prediction of the future or a depiction of a state of affairs that will and must occur” but “a discussion of how the trends occurring in Nigeria since its birth as a nation in 1960 could, under the right conditions, lead to its failure.”
The report said that “fragmentation of the Nigerian body politic could create conditions for a multipartite civil war, mirroring in some ways the events in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991.”
The report however said that “Nigeria’s 250 million people, 350 different ethnicities, and religious differences can, under the right circumstances, cause the nation to shatter in an instant.”

http://africanheraldexpress.com/blog7/2012/01/18/nigeria-may-become-a-failed-state-in-2030-not-2015-us/

Stan

01-23-2012, 08:00 PM

I now have my doubts as to whether the man who was allowed to escape had anything to do with the Christmas bombing. The Nigerian Police has a habit of randomly picking up people from the street and charging them for crimes they did not commit - simply to deflect attention from their incompetence.

Congrats, there are many in the west that already concluded nearly the same.

Secondly, it takes a lot more than organized crime to motivate suicide bombers and we have been attacked by several suicide bombers over the past year.

It takes a charismatic religious/nationalist/revolutionary figure to sufficiently motivate a young man to take his life for a cause. This isn't political thuggery - political thugs expect to live after the event, and to be paid.

My use of the term suicide roughly translates into: An individual that runs into a building with a bag of explosives, who I doubt has even a clue what he is carrying, is on a suicide mission. Dead criminals are good criminals. They often die with the bomb they carry, yet did not make. Most criminals here and in the USA die in the process of playing with something they know nothing about.
That's suicide in my opinion.

Thirdly, and unrelated - eye witness reports state that BH foot soldiers in Kano were youth between the ages of 15 and 18 (essentially children). This is extremely worrying. Seems as if they have tapped into the huge supply of Almajiri children in local madrassas (just like Wole Soyinka alluded to in his essay).

The children in the DRC were barely 5 years of age when they learned to use automatic weapons and perform rape. What's your point ? Granted, a sad state of circumstances, but nothing outside of the norm for the region.

Stan

01-23-2012, 08:07 PM

How useful is this article or is it bravo sierra?

Not Bravo Sierra - reality at any of the war colleges.
It's called an Occasional Paper and a fairly long read at 156 pages.
Here's your free copy (http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cst/csat67.pdf) without someone from the Herald Express trying to ad lib.

The one on Zaire and the DRC reads similar.

The US needs to know whether or not to rely on these countries for strategic goods. That's why so much emphasis is placed on studying such a hypothesis.

Chowing

01-23-2012, 09:46 PM

I just came across this thought provoking working paper "THE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF THE SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA" on the Freakonomics website.

Our most conservative estimates suggest that civil conflict intensity, as reflected in casualties and duration, is higher by approximately by 25% in areas where partitioned ethnicities reside (as compared to the homelands of ethnic groups that have not been separated by the national borders). Our analysis also uncovers substantial spillovers. Ethnic groups that were not directly affected by the artificial border design experience more conflict if they happen to be adjacent to partitioned ethnicities.
http://www.freakonomics.com/media/Africa%20paper.pdf

davidbfpo

01-23-2012, 10:25 PM

A commentary by Raffaello Pantucci, ex-IISS and now with ICSR, which looks at other Jihadist regional groups as a template to examine Boko Haram's trajectory and ends concluding:
Instead, the group has focused on causing chaos and massacring people in Nigeria, something that is terrible but must clearly be focused on in a regional way rather than as part of a global anti-terrorist struggle.

Link:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2012/01/20/what-might-boko-haram-do/

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 05:16 AM

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/01/201212402548882842.html

"The vehicles were later checked and the cars were loaded with explosives. Two brand new Hilux open pick-up vans were also found packed with explosives in the Bompai area of Kano."

Authorities discovered at least 10 unexploded car bombs, including one near a police station in Kano, as well as around 100 other explosive devices through the day on Monday.

Speaking of Aljazeera, a very detailed article on recent attacks in Kano. More sosphisticated than I thought, which there was more information on the type of explosive devises discovered.

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 05:57 AM

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/09/146554.htm

3. What are the criteria for designation?
The Secretary of State designates Foreign Terrorist Organizations in accordance with section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. The legal criteria for designating Foreign Terrorist Organizations are:

The organization must be foreign based.
The organization engages in terrorist activity or terrorism, or retains the capability and intent to engage in terrorist activity or terrorism.
The terrorist activity or terrorism of the organization threatens the security of United States nationals or national security of the United States.

5. How long does the process take?
For Foreign Terrorist Organizations, once an organization is identified, we prepare a detailed "administrative record," which is a compilation of information, typically including both classified and open source information, demonstrating that the statutory criteria for designation have been satisfied.

If the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of the Treasury, decides to make the designation, Congress is notified of the Secretary’s intent to designate the organization seven days before the designation is published in the Federal Register, as section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act requires.
Upon the expiration of the seven-day waiting period and in the absence of Congressional action to block the designation, notice of the designation is published in the Federal Register, at which point the designation takes effect.

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 06:05 AM

http://http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/us-house-wants-boko-haram-designated-terrorist-group/104034/

The committee on counterterrorism and Intelligence, chaired by Representative Patrick Meehan, warned against underestimating Boko Haram's intent and capability to attack the US homeland and urged the State Department to investigate whether the group should be designated a foreign terrorist organisation, the Huffington Post reported Wednesday.

It also recommended increasing intelligence gathering on Boko Haram, including reaching out to Nigerian immigrants in the US.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=48752

Findings:

1. Boko Haram has quickly evolved and poses an emerging threat to U.S. interests and the U.S. Homeland.

2. Boko Haram has the intent and may be developing capability to coordinate on a rhetorical and operational level with Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabaab.

3. Boko Haram’s evolution in targeting and tactics closely tracks that of other al Qaeda affiliates that have targeted the U.S. Homeland, most notably Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 06:08 AM

KingJaja,

The point of the above posts are meant to disspell the myth the U.S. doesn't care about Africans, but by law for the group to be designated by the U.S. then it must be a threat to the U.S.. I have watched this process unfold in Asia before and it took several months, and there was no one saying the U.S. didn't care about Asians. Like all bureaucracies our moves relatively slow unlesss there is an immediate threat.

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 07:36 AM

http://homeland.house.gov/press-release/homeland-security-committee-report-details-emerging-homeland-threat-posed-africa-based

In August 2011, Boko Haram attacked the United Nations headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria with a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device, killing 23 people and injuring more than 80 others. In a video recorded before the attack, the suicide bomber described the U.N. as a forum for “all global evil” and stated that the attack was designed to “send a message to the U.S. President and ‘other infidels.’”

The 29 page report is worth the read, it is quick read and gives a good summary on how the group has evolved in sosphistication rapidly over the past two years, not only in its ability to launch attacks, but also its growing media presence on the internet. Then it sums it up with how little we actually know about the Group.

Stan

01-24-2012, 08:48 AM

Speaking of Aljazeera, a very detailed article on recent attacks in Kano. More sosphisticated than I thought, which there was more information on the type of explosive devises discovered.

Bill,
You'll forgive my tenacious habit of questioning EOD-related stories :D
But, unless the gent from Aljazeera just so happens to be an EOD tech and/or the source of his information is an EOD tech, I have problems using sophisticated in the same sentence. As a senior instructor in post blast since 2003 we've seen every sort of device and timer known to man since the early 70s used. I really hate it when people say "bombs" :rolleyes: Did it come from an aircraft ? Is it a projectile ? What do you mean by bomb ?

I'm waiting with baited breath for their post blast to reach the BDCs. Til then I'm not biting ;)

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 11:34 AM

A commentary by Raffaello Pantucci, ex-IISS and now with ICSR, which looks at other Jihadist regional groups as a template to examine Boko Haram's trajectory and ends concluding:

A few comments.

1. The name of the group isn't really Boko Haram. It is Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati Wal-Jihad (People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad). The moniker "Boko Haram" gives one the impression that this is a group of illiterate bumpkins, fanatically opposed to Western education. This is not the case, "Boko Haram" seems to be a nickname given to the sect by locals.

(There are many educated people - University graduates among the leadership of Boko Haram).

2. Nigeria is much bigger, much richer and more strategic than Somalia. So Boko Haram is potentially much more dangerous.

3. There is a well established tradition of Anti-Western/Anti-US behaviour in Northern Nigeria. Nigeria had the most violent reaction to the Danish cartoons, Christians were killed when the US invaded Afghanistan and there are regular riots and demonstrations against US and Israeli policy. With greater confidence, it will be difficult for BH to resist the temptation to strike at American targets. (The UN building bombing last year is the surest sign that they have the West and the US in their sights).

4. As a Nigerian and having lived in Britain, I can tell you that the vast majority of Nigerians resident in Britain are from the South and Nigerian Muslims in Britain tend to be from Southern Nigeria - hence, they are less likely to be radical, fundamentalist or intolerant. However, there is a real danger of radicalisation in Britain (I lived near Bradford, so I know what I am talking about). Nigerian Muslims radicalised in Britain could reach out to Boko Haram - this is not likely, but possible.

5. Having said that, the real danger is the breakup of the Nigerian state into a predominantly Christian Southern half and a predominantly Muslim Northern half - or something worse, more splintering, fragmentation and sectarian violence. This is significantly more dangerous than a few attacks on Westerners/Western interests. A breakup of Nigeria will take the rest of West Africa along with it, affect the price of crude oil, precipitate Africa's worst refugee crisis and ultimately have a significant impact on the global economy.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 01:09 PM

Picture of Southerners fleeing Northern Nigeria

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Yc24wt95eEE/Tx2zTMdN3GI/AAAAAAAAP7g/xhO3rYcrxJc/s1600/393783_10150622993095729_661120728_11464423_116058 6841_n.jpg

Stan

01-24-2012, 02:22 PM

With greater confidence, it will be difficult for BH to resist the temptation to strike at American targets. (The UN building bombing last year is the surest sign that they have the West and the US in their sights).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it was quite some time before BH bellied up to the bar and said they performed the attack. At that point it wasn't clear who had bombed the building. Secondly, they gave no reason for the act, or did they.

Some of the Africa forums were even hinting at payback regardless of who was in the UN building, as if to say the UN had done BH wrong somewhere along the line.

I agree, those expats must be an easy target. They must be down on the list of things to do - I expected much more already other than the kidnappings and ransoms of days gone by. Generally that helps fund the sect and having a captive or two is also good !

I have to say that the Nigerian version of an evac is much more domesticated than that of other countries where you literally walk to the borders with little more than the shirt on your back.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 03:34 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it was quite some time before BH bellied up to the bar and said they performed the attack. At that point it wasn't clear who had bombed the building. Secondly, they gave no reason for the act, or did they.

Some of the Africa forums were even hinting at payback regardless of who was in the UN building, as if to say the UN had done BH wrong somewhere along the line.

I agree, those expats must be an easy target. They must be down on the list of things to do - I expected much more already other than the kidnappings and ransoms of days gone by. Generally that helps fund the sect and having a captive or two is also good !

I have to say that the Nigerian version of an evac is much more domesticated than that of other countries where you literally walk to the borders with little more than the shirt on your back.

Well, it appears they have some major issues with the US:wry:. I don't know why the US is always a major target.

Yusifiyya Movement, also known as Boko Haram, yesterday, said it attacked the United Nations (UN) building in Abuja because United States (US) and the UN are supporting the Federal Government to persecute Muslims in Nigeria.

One Abu Kakah, who claimed to be speaking on behalf of the group, made the statement. He spoke to journalists on phone in Maiduguri, Borno State capital, just as the US embassy said Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) had arrived Nigeria following the suicide attack.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/08/un-house-bombing-why-we-struck-boko-haram/

So there you have it. They've successfully completed the UN part of the job, the US part is outstanding.

The scale of their operations in Kano shows that they are quite well funded, they are also known to demand and accept protection money from local businesses/politicians, they rob banks and there's are lot of money in Nigeria. Eye-witness accounts claim that they used a couple of brand new vehicles in the Kano operation.

They are very unlikely to have Al Shabab's or AQIM's funding problems - so they might not see the need to

The Borno State Government yesterday said the N100million it paid to the in-laws of the slain leader of the Boko Haram Islamic sect, Mohammed Yusuf, was no compensation but a valid judgment sum.

Information Commissioner Inuwa Bwala told The Nation on phone that Yusuf’s in-laws took the government to court and won.

He said the government has compiled a list of those affected by the Boko Haram crisis. They would soon be issued cheques as palliatives for their losses.

Bwala was reacting to claims by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the 19 northern states that the government was insensitive to the plight of Christians, who suffered losses.

Dismissing the allegation, the commissioner said: “As far as we know, no Christian in Borno State or CAN in the state went to court accusing the government of having a hand in the killing of Christians.

“The in-laws of the late the Yusuf took the previous government to court and the court awarded them N100 million; the present government was magnanimous enough to pay the judgment sum because we do not want to continue to drag this matter while the people are suffering.

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/mobile/news/33682-borno-explains-n100m-payment-to-boko-haram-leader-yusuf%E2%80%99s-in-laws.html

Don't mind the BS in the article, that money (N100 million = $625,000) is going straight to fund BH operations, it is protection money. A lot more money is being paid underground.

As you can see, Nigeria is so full of easy targets for BH, that they are spoiled for choice. In any case, if I was an expatriate in Northern Nigeria, I would be on my guard.

Finally, Nigeria isn't Congo and Kano isn't Goma. We are a little bit richer, a little bit better organised and we have slightly better infrastructure than Congo DRC.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 03:45 PM

Interesting article from The Atlantic

This month, the BBC asked in a trenchant report, "Is Nigeria on the brink?" It's a question that, in my 12 years of Nigeria-watching, I've heard international observers ask about Nigeria many times. Is this latest episode the end-game, the opening act of the collapse of Africa's most populous nation-state -- and the largest supplier of African oil to the United States? It may be, but it's not too late for Nigerians and world leaders to bring about an overdue solution for this long-troubled country. Originally three separate regions that British colonialists united into one untenable country, Nigeria's best solution for its past and present crises might be to split back up.

The bombings and killings this weekend in Kano, a city that for centuries has anchored the Islamic commercial community in northern Nigerian, are only latest sign of severe crisis. Nearly every week brings fresh instances of the failure of Nigeria as a nation-state. The deadly Christmas Day bombing in a Catholic church in Abuja, which killed at least 37 people, was again in the news this past week because the government admitted that the alleged mastermind of the attack had escaped from custody. The escape ignited new complaints about the incompetence of Nigeria's police -- as well as fears that Boko Haram or other opponents of the government had infiltrated the police leadership.

The escape forced President Gooluck Jonathan to threaten to fire his national police chief -- and brought renewed attention to his failing presidency. Jonathan was re-elected last year over the opposition of much of the country's Muslim community, which comprises an estimated half of Nigeria's population and felt it was the "turn" of a Muslim to hold the presidency. It is possible that some of Nigeria's deterioration reflects defiance by Muslims who do not favor extremism but feel the grand bargain of Nigerian history -- the trading back and forth between Muslim and Christian presidents -- has been broken.

Jonathan has also hurt himself, especially by agreeing to raise prices on gasoline, which ignited nationwide protests. Only days after the government reversed its decision came the violence in Kano, and another crisis. That the Muslim extremist group, Boko Haram immediately claimed responsibility for the Kano carnage heightened the sense of impending doom in Nigeria.

The current U.S. policy posture of non-involvement seems less and less credible. Nigeria is too large, and too economically important to the U.S., for the Obama administration to essentially play the innocent bystander. The U.S. must act.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/should-the-world-help-break-up-nigeria-in-order-to-save-it/251784/

Stan

01-24-2012, 03:58 PM

Well, it appears they have some major issues with the US:wry:. I don't know why the US is always a major target.

:D We tend to do that a lot. Most of us would rather stay home however.

So there you have it. They've successfully completed the UN part of the job, the US part is outstanding.

I had read that, but, in all honesty, it's a pretty shaky story following the vague comments in the news - as if nobody knew anything and with other so-called representatives "claiming to be speaking" on behalf of the BH.

The scale of their operations in Kano shows that they are quite well funded, they are also known to demand and accept protection money from local businesses/politicians, they rob banks and there's are lot of money in Nigeria. Eye-witness accounts claim that they used a couple of brand new vehicles in the Kano operation.

That's kind of why I still stick with the word "criminals" vs terrorists. Time will tell. You and I are more at odds over personal opinions - yours being a little closer to home and mine based on my job and experience - which means we question everything.

As you can see, Nigeria is so full of easy targets for BH, that they are spoiled for choice. In any case, if I was an expatriate in Northern Nigeria, I would be on my guard.

Precisely my point. They could have trashed any of the oil compounds with absolutely no resistance nor hard work, yet decided on the UN building because the legal attache is at the US Embassy ? Expats are a strange bunch and money makes it easy to forget that mortality is on the doorstep.

Finally, Nigeria isn't Congo and Kano isn't Goma. We are a little bit richer, a little bit better organised and we have slightly better infrastructure than Congo DRC.

Point taken, although the Zairois and Rwandans did in fact use the roads to walk on. It's more to do with haste as your predator is literally 10 yards behind you. Perhaps "fleeing" is not the word of choice based on your picture ?

Stan

01-24-2012, 04:06 PM

Interesting article from The Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/should-the-world-help-break-up-nigeria-in-order-to-save-it/251784/

Yep, a good find, but I don't agree with:

The current U.S. policy posture of non-involvement seems less and less credible. Nigeria is too large, and too economically important to the U.S., for the Obama administration to essentially play the innocent bystander. The U.S. must act.

Obama is more worried about his next go as the POTUS and the current wars have taken their toll on the US economy and Military.

This sounds more likely for almost any country with a dictator in charge:

My wife, who hails from the oil-center of Port Harcourt, has seen Nigeria muddle through before. She and others say that Nigeria is forever on the brink; it's a kind of regular, normal reality. To these diaspora Nigerians, the country is perpetually running out of time, but the country's elite seem to do little beyond planning for the short term when the long term could bring disaster.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 04:13 PM

That's kind of why I still stick with the word "criminals" vs terrorists. Time will tell. You and I are more at odds over personal opinions - yours being a little closer to home and mine based on my job and experience - which means we question everything.

Terrorists tend to have a criminal business on the side. FARC was/is involved in narcotics, the Taliban and the Haqqanis do a fair bit of extortion etc. It takes money to run operations - you've got to pay for your AK-47s and your Toyota 4X4's somehow.

Having compared the behaviour of BH with the Niger Delta Militants. I can tell you that BH has more of an ideological bent than Niger Delta Militants. The Federal Government could pacify Niger Delta Militants at a cost (we spend more on "militant rehabilitation" than we spend on basic education), but BH has a very different axe to grind with govt.

Secondly, as a said earlier, it takes a little more than criminal activity to get a man to willingly sacrifice his life as a suicide bomber.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 04:24 PM

No one expects the US to get involved in Nigeria. If the US couldn't be bothered with Liberia (much less complex, much less troublesome). Then you cannot reasonably expect them to get involved in a big way in Nigeria.

Especially during an election year.

Also recall the kind of heat Obama took for getting involved with Joseph Kony. (who is still yet to be found).

The article points to an issue that is set to dominate African politics this century - the breakup of artificial states. The only thing really keeping Nigeria together are Oil revenues from the Niger Delta. But as the population inches towards 300 million, and the political elite remain reluctant to unlearn the bad habits formed when Nigeria's population was around 40 million and Oil revenues could cater for both social services and the usual African levels of corruption - the center begins to unravel.

The process will also accelerate elsewhere when the French finally leave West Africa.

Stan

01-24-2012, 04:30 PM

Secondly, as a said earlier, it takes a little more than criminal activity to get a man to willingly sacrifice his life as a suicide bomber.

I fully agree with you other than for the sake of argument repeating myself from the post above.

I consider doing something you know nothing about to be suicide. I did not say the young man that ran into the police station with a bag of explosives was a suicide bomber... I said his actions were suicidal.

You are aware of our moto:
Initial success or total failure :)

Generally you get one mistake

Stan

01-24-2012, 04:32 PM

The process will also accelerate elsewhere when the French finally leave West Africa.

They always seem to make a comeback along with the Belg :eek:

Bill Moore

01-24-2012, 05:11 PM

Posted by Stan

Bill,
You'll forgive my tenacious habit of questioning EOD-related stories
But, unless the gent from Aljazeera just so happens to be an EOD tech and/or the source of his information is an EOD tech, I have problems using sophisticated in the same sentence. As a senior instructor in post blast since 2003 we've seen every sort of device and timer known to man since the early 70s used. I really hate it when people say "bombs" Did it come from an aircraft ? Is it a projectile ? What do you mean by bomb ?

I have a 101 questions about the explosive devises that weren't answered by the article, but the alleged number of explosive devices were. There are at least two types of sophistication regarding an attack like this, one is technical (your point I think) and the other is operational. Multiple attacks that are near simultaneous does indicated a "degree" of sophistication, so does the intelligence gathering and logistics required to support the attack (not to mention the recruiting, training, etc.), all of which indicate that the organization that conducted these attacks has evolved well beyond a couple of loose cannons.

You're right about the article, it did indicate the "bombs" were sophisticated, but I rather leave that to you EOD techs to determine that. :)

Stan

01-24-2012, 05:15 PM

Terrorists tend to have a criminal business on the side. FARC was/is involved in narcotics, the Taliban and the Haqqanis do a fair bit of extortion etc. It takes money to run operations - you've got to pay for your AK-47s and your Toyota 4X4's somehow.

Let's keep things a little in perspective - albeit from my point of view.

In 95 there was at least an explosion a day here between the Estonian and Russian criminal elements. There was a slight hit on the US Embassy as well.

In response, the USG trained and advised the Estonian security services with elements of the ATF, FBI, MET, etc.

17 years later we export our expertise and are proudly no longer a consumer of security. Nigeria, in stark comparison (in dollars), has had 10,000 times more training but yet has regressed.

You may (and rightfully so) argue that Nigeria has a population 100 times larger than Estonia, but your security services are huge and totally incapable of even a remote inkling of what it takes to thoroughly investigate and learn from what has been provided free of charge.

That seems to be the overriding reasons for BH's success stories IMO.

Stan

01-24-2012, 05:39 PM

I have a 101 questions about the explosive devises that weren't answered by the article, but the alleged number of explosive devices were. There are at least two types of sophistication regarding an attack like this, one is technical (your point I think) and the other is operational. Multiple attacks that are near simultaneous does indicated a "degree" of sophistication, so does the intelligence gathering and logistics required to support the attack (not to mention the recruiting, training, etc.), all of which indicate that the organization that conducted these attacks has evolved well beyond a couple of loose cannons.

You're right about the article, it did indicate the "bombs" were sophisticated, but I rather leave that to you EOD techs to determine that. :)

Bill,
The explosives used will trace back to origin assuming the FBI gets involved with the post blast. :rolleyes: The previous forensics pointed directly at military ordnance. But, the Nigerians have a poor track record at cleaning up old UXO and that normally is a free source in the production chain of IEDs. Africans are known for making good use of what you and I would just toss into the bin !

As far as the profound (purported) number of secondaries goes - one always assumes that there are more. Just how many more and where is up to the skills in your post blast team. Five or six is not uncommon and when those were placed is anyone's guess. I doubt that 100s were found and the terms used in the article leave me very skeptical.

There's no limit to logistics as we found in Afghanistan and Estonia. I can pay a young kid to drive a vehicle somewhere and park it one week out, no questions asked. Why would we assume you couldn't do the same in Nigeria ? Jaja indicates the growing concern over youth being recruited and I concur.

I see an increase in operational capabilities, but I think the technical abilities represent a cheap (Chinese) copy of the original (according to the failure rates listed in the article alone). I doubt the IEDs were even made there (most of Zaire's were made in Bosnia).

As for the intel to support such an op I see the Nigerians lackadaisically hanging out like most African military with the bold and naive view that they cannot be had. Hanging out under the shade of a tree while people park vehicles in strategic locations is very typical of the region.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 08:09 PM

Let's keep things a little in perspective - albeit from my point of view.

In 95 there was at least an explosion a day here between the Estonian and Russian criminal elements. There was a slight hit on the US Embassy as well.

In response, the USG trained and advised the Estonian security services with elements of the ATF, FBI, MET, etc.

17 years later we export our expertise and are proudly no longer a consumer of security. Nigeria, in stark comparison (in dollars), has had 10,000 times more training but yet has regressed.

You may (and rightfully so) argue that Nigeria has a population 100 times larger than Estonia, but your security services are huge and totally incapable of even a remote inkling of what it takes to thoroughly investigate and learn from what has been provided free of charge.

That seems to be the overriding reasons for BH's success stories IMO.

Nigerians are every bit as capable as anyone else. The problem is that unmotivated Nigerians are not particularly competent.

You can't really teach a guy who isn't paid his salary regularly much. All he needs to know is how to shoot is AK 47 and use it to demand for bribes from civilians.

KingJaja

01-24-2012, 10:18 PM

These guys are on a roll :eek:

KANO, Nigeria (Reuters) - A powerful blast destroyed a police station in the northern Nigerian city of Kano, a senior police official said, the latest in a series of blasts in the country's second biggest city since Islamist insurgents stepped up their campaign there.

"The explosives also affected some surrounding buildings. It was a big bang. For now, I can not say how many of our men are affected or whether the bomber died," the police source said.

Islamist sect Boko Haram claimed responsibility for a coordinated series of gun and bomb attacks in Kano on Friday that killed 186 people in their deadliest strike yet.

The new focus on Kano, an ancient city once at the heart of caravan routes connecting Africa's interior with the Mediterranean, underscores the sect's growing ambition. Gunfire was also heard there early on Tuesday, witnesses said.

From drive by shootings and petrol bombings in its northeastern heartland in Maiduguri, Boko Haram has spread across the north and have struck the capital Abuja.

The Islamists have killed at least 935 people since it launched an uprising in 2009, including more than 250 in the first weeks of this year, Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday.

Boko Haram, which means "Western education is sinful" in the Hausa language spoken in northern Nigeria, is loosely modelled on Afghanistan's Taliban. It has claimed responsibility for bombing churches, police stations, military facilities, banks and beer parlours in the mainly Muslim north of Nigeria.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE80N2CV20120124

If I needed any confirmation that the Nigerian Police was useless, this is it.