'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013) [Archive] - Page 3

KingJaja

01-25-2012, 01:02 PM

So, it took 4 months to get on the warning to traveler's list for a claimed attack on 26 August

Bill said this would be slow and painful !

As I hinted earlier, there is a very strong lobby of Western analysts that are working hard to deflect attention from Nigeria. (Their interests seem to coincide with the interests of some elements in Northern Nigeria).

What is it about Western analysts that prevents them from presenting a balanced picture of what is really going on? We have a former ambassador (Walter Carrington) who tends to be pro-South in his pronouncements, probably because his wife is from Southern Nigeria and he was ambassador when Sani Abacha was in power (and the South was in opposition).

We also have another ex-ambassador, John Campbell, who tends to be pro-North in his pronouncements, probably because when he was ambassador, the North was in opposition and because he serves on the board of a university built by a prominent Northern politician.

Jean Herskovits is pro-North because her first contact with Nigeria as a scholar was after the Civil War - the Northern led Military was a stabilising influence then and she has carried her admiration of the successfully implemented reintegration process to this day.

Zachary Pascal who writes for The Atlantic merely re-echoes what you'd hear in typical beer parlour in Southern Nigeria - i.e. split the country, national conference etc. There doesn't seem to be a single Western analyst that is brave or balanced enough to present the entire picture.

You see this reflected in reports about Nigeria. Buzzwords like "alienation", "poverty" and "marginalization" and they are seldom challenged. Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri Muslims may feel alienated, but so do Igala/Nupe/Gwari Muslims in Northern Nigeria. Most of the trouble in Northern Nigeria comes from the first group not the second, so could there be something more than poverty, alienation and economic marginalization at play?

What about Christians in Northern Nigeria? Some estimates put the percentage of Christians in Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) as high as 30%. If there is a popular social movement against economic marginalization, why aren't Christians part of it?

When "economic marginalization" is discussed, there isn't any hard evidence presented to support that claim. It is true that Northern Nigeria has lower human capital development indices than Southern Nigeria, but why?

All states in Nigeria depend on the federation account for at least 90% of their funding, so budget figures are made based on population estimates. These are the budget estimates for some key Northern states (2012):

1. Kano State budgeted N210 billion (approx $1.3 billion)
2. Borno State budgeted N130 billion (approx $0.8 billion) - Borno has about the worst human capital development indices on earth!
3. Jigawa State budgeted N104 billion (approx $0.65 billion)
4. Gombe State budget N90 billion (approx $0.56 billion)

These figures may seem small in the West, but they are huge by African standards - and the smallest figure is still larger than total US aid (military and civilian assistance) to Nigeria ($0.50 billion - 2009 estimate) .

So where does the money go? No Western analyst has bothered to query the quality of governance at the local level, instead we are treated to statements like the central government at Abuja has long-neglected these regions, which is not entirely correct.

This is not to suggest that the central government does not share a large part of the blame, but most of the blame lies with local administrators. With the exception of six oil-producing states, states in Southern Nigeria have similar budgets to the Northern states, yet in the South and Middle Belt there is more evidence that these funds are put to good use. For example:

1. Anambra State budgeted N82.5 billion ($0.5 billion) - yet Anambra state manages to tar more roads, pay more teachers and send more children to school than any of the states in Nigeria's far North!
2. Edo State budgeted N150 billion (approx $0.9 billion)

The figures from Southern states aren't that different from Northern states.

My question still remains - when is anyone going to present a balanced analysis of Nigeria's problems. When are analysts going to make a distinction between Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri Muslims and Yoruba/Igbira/Igala/Nupe/Gwari Muslims? Is this just poverty, alienation and marginalization or is it a deadly cocktail of Salafist theology and tribalism?

KingJaja

01-25-2012, 01:17 PM

More on that police station story:

KANO, Nigeria — Jubilant youths overran a blood-splattered police station on Wednesday after it was attacked by a radical Islamist sect, revealing a streak of popular discontent with a government that many say has failed them in Africa’s most populous nation.

Suspected members of Boko Haram surrounded the police station Tuesday night in Kano, ordered civilians to get off the street, began chanting “God is great” and threw homemade bombs into the station while spraying it with assault rifles, witnesses said. The attack followed coordinated assaults on Friday that killed at least 185 people in Kano, Nigeria’s second-largest city.

Associated Press journalists on Wednesday saw that youths had overrun the bombed-out station in the Sheka neighborhood of this sprawling city in northern Nigeria.

Doors to jail cells stood open. Blood coated the floor of the local commander’s private bathroom. Investigative files that had apparently been rifled through were spilled on the floors. Cheering youths outside waved an officer’s uniform and jumped up and down on top of a burned-out police truck, with one wearing a police ballistic helmet, smiling.

Others in the crowd said in the local Hausa language they would kill any police officer who returned. Some ominously asked journalists visiting the site if they were Christians.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/apparent-islamist-sect-attack-in-north-nigeria-leaves-police-station-bombed-youths-in-charge/2012/01/25/gIQAFoVaPQ_story.html

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 05:02 PM

I knew it was going to come to this. I advise all Western expats to leave Kano immediately. The British Council/DFID office for example are very easy pickings.

Seems to be straight out of AQIM/Al Shabab's play book. What I don't know is what they intend to do with him - is it for money or is it for something more sinister?

You can't pay me enough to risk my life going to Kano.

A German engineer has been abducted by gunmen in the city of Kano in northern Nigeria.

Police are searching for the kidnappers but it is not known who was behind the incident on Thursday morning.

Gunmen are reported to have handcuffed the man and bundled him into the boot of a car.

A heavy security presence and overnight curfew are in place in Kano after last Friday's deadly attacks when more than 185 people were killed.

Islamist militant group Boko Haram has denied killing civilians in the bombings, but acknowledged carrying out attacks on police stations and other official buildings.

In a message posted on YouTube, Abubakar Shekau blamed the deaths of "innocent civilians" on Nigeria's security forces.

Nigeria's authorities deny the allegations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16745509

Stan

01-26-2012, 06:28 PM

I knew it was going to come to this. I advise all Western expats to leave Kano immediately. The British Council/DFID office for example are very easy pickings.

Seems the German was not first and it also seems to be just a grab for money as is indicated in the blog below.

U.S. citizen kidnapped in Nigeria’s oil delta (http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-01-20/news/30649243_1_oil-delta-oil-rich-southern-delta-kidnapping)

The attack happened in Warri, the capital of Delta state, local police spokesman Charles Muka said. Investigators believe the assailants trailed the man to the bank and waited outside before kidnapping him, Muka said.

Kidnappers later made contact with authorities and demanded a $333,000 ransom, he said.

What do you make of this African blog story (http://www.hollerafrica.com/showArticle.php?artId=304&catId=1) ?

Pervasive Kidnapping in Nigeria: Symptom of A Failing State?

A criminal act, which first attracted national attention on 26 February 2006 when Niger Delta militants kidnapped foreign oil workers to press home their demand, kidnapping has since become ubiquitous and commercialized.

Similarly victims have changed from being predominantly foreign oil workers to Nigerians, including parents, grand parents, and toddlers and about anyone who has a relative that could be blackmailed into coughing out a ransom.

Those behind the recent wave of the despicable act have also changed from being exclusively Niger Delta militants to dodgy elements from different walks of life - armed robbers, unemployed, professional 419ers, and at least one Catholic priest

Seems to be straight out of AQIM/Al Shabab's play book.

Why is it then that Nigeria is considered the kidnapping capital ?

Playbook ? Which one do you have handy ?

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:07 PM

Seems the German was not first and it also seems to be just a grab for money as is indicated in the blog below.

The German was kidnapped in Kano, the American was kidnapped in the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta and Kano are on opposite sides of Nigeria (far North vs far South).

Kano is not known for kidnapping foreigners. The American was kidnapped by a known quantity - money-hungry Niger Delta boys. We can't be sure who kidnapped the German? Boko Haram? Local Boys? AQIM?

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:21 PM

Kano is known to be safe, so kidnapping foreigners is a worrying new trend. This is what wikitravel had to say about Kano:

Kano is a largely safe city and theft or violence to foreigners is rare. Keep valuables in a zipped pocket and do not wear overly revealing clothes. When buying outside shops you will probably need to haggle, walk away if you are unsure of the deal. People may try to swindle you so check your prices before agreeing and if anyone asks for money feel free to walk away. Do not use internet banking from anything but private computers.

http://wikitravel.org/en/Kano#b

You also touched on this:

Why is it then that Nigeria is considered the kidnapping capital ?

Playbook ? Which one do you have handy ?

A lot of kidnapping takes place in the South-East and Niger Delta regions. Nigeria is huge. The North isn't really known for kidnapping, but with 70% unemployment among the youth in many parts of the North, this new trends isn't that surprising.

On a serious note, 70% unemployment is likely to you the same outcomes as Somalia. You can either ignore it and watch the nation disintegrate into lawlessness or provide jobs for the youth (massive infrastructure projects) or kill them all (highly unlikely).

AQIM and Al Shabab are in the business of kidnapping foreigners, BH seems to be following that trend.

Stan

01-26-2012, 07:23 PM

The German was kidnapped in Kano, the American was kidnapped in the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta and Kano are on opposite sides of Nigeria (far North vs far South).

Kano is not known for kidnapping foreigners. The American was kidnapped by a known quantity - money-hungry Niger Delta boys. We can't be sure who kidnapped the German? Boko Haram? Local Boys? AQIM?

So I take it that Kano people are incapable of doing the same thing for money having watched how easy it is to do in The Niger Delta ?

What's to say that The Niger Delta boys are not operating in what is now a hot spot for criminal activity with the police running for their lives afraid of even the common local ?

Kano is known to be safe, so kidnapping foreigners is a worrying new trend. This is what wikitravel had to say about Kano:

The Department of State warns against travel for the entire country (for Americans).

The North isn't really known for kidnapping, but with 70% unemployment among the youth in many parts of the North, this new trends isn't that surprising.

That's kind of what I thought. Crime is hard to restrict to a single district regardless of the size of the country. In Nigeria's case, where the police are useless nothing stands in the way of a short trip for cash.

On a serious note, 70% unemployment is likely to you the same outcomes as Somalia. You can either ignore it and watch the nation disintegrate into lawlessness or provide jobs for the youth (massive infrastructure projects) or kill them all (highly unlikely).

Is likely to "me" or is likely to "yield" the same outcomes as Somalia ?

AQIM and Al Shabab are in the business of kidnapping foreigners, BH seems to be following that trend.

I am unaware of the BH kidnapping trend.

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:27 PM

Chowing

01-26-2012, 07:29 PM

Following from the above, while Nigeria is not yet a ‘failed state’, it could arguably qualify as a ‘failing state’.

He makes a pretty good argument for Nigeria qualifying as such.

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:31 PM

So I take it that Kano people are incapable of doing the same thing for money having watched how easy it is to do in The Niger Delta ?

What's to say that The Niger Delta boys are not operating in what is now a hot spot for criminal activity with the police running for their lives afraid of even the common local ?

It's not that they are not capable, but they have a different culture. They are less likely to hold foreigners for ransom, especially bature. They tend to go after local infidels, but it is not their nature to either kidnap or steal from Westerners.

Having lived in that part of Nigeria, I find this trend worrying.

Stan

01-26-2012, 07:35 PM

It's not that they are not capable, but they have a different culture. They are less likely to hold foreigners for ransom, especially bature. They tend to go after local infidels, but it is not their nature to either kidnap or steal from Westerners.

Having lived in that part of Nigeria, I find this trend worrying.

Thanks ! A better understanding was what I was looking for.

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:37 PM

He makes a pretty good argument for Nigeria qualifying as such.

Nigeria has been a failing state for at least 25 years or possibly more. We have a talent for dancing on the edge of the cliff without falling.

When I was in my teens there was a massive exodus from Western Nigeria and the real threat of a Civil War but nothing happened. When Dad was a young man, there was an actual Civil War, but Nigeria still remained intact after the event. (My Dad fled Kaduna by air).

Can we survive all this? The jury is still out on that.

Chowing

01-26-2012, 07:39 PM

Stan said,

What about Christians in Northern Nigeria? Some estimates put the percentage of Christians in Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) as high as 30%. If there is a popular social movement against economic marginalization, why aren't Christians part of it?

Very interesting observation. I was attending a presentation just on Monday where the presenter, a missions statistician claimed that there are many more
Christians in the north, in fact, he said the country is not divided 50/50 Christian/Muslim. "those facts are what Muslims put out to make them seem stronger in numbers than they really are in Nigeria."

That just add fuel to your observation. What are the Christians feeling and desiring to see take place in light of the economic plight of the north? Why do Muslims seem so much more upset.

I think it goes back to more what Kingjaja was saying a few weeks back about how upset they are about the way the government security hit back at them in 2009.

The same presenter, Patrick Johnstone, went on to make an even broader statement:

In most Muslim countries there are few controls on population growth, yet economic development is slowest there and the prospect is greatest that poverty will increase and water supplies will prove inadequate. This could make the Muslim world a demographic time bomb for the next two or three generations, provoking militancy, wars and massive emigrations.

Stan

01-26-2012, 07:41 PM

Pictures from another bomb blast in Kano today, home made explosive at motor park, targeted Southerners fleeing the North. Three people injured, locally made explosives used, not very serious.

**Your definition of fleeing seems to be an African women carrying all her belongings on her head surrounded by a gaggle of half-naked, malnourished children, trudging helplessly on the road out from Goma.

There are many ways to flee in Africa, and not all of them involve the kind of photo-ops aid agencies love to place on the front covers of the glossy brochures.

This is still fleeing.

A link please.

Not exactly what I saw in Rwanda. More like armed thugs shooting everything that moved and any operational vehicle stolen. The distraught and ragged children came while getting a host of treatment from the Zairian Army.

Hanging out between buses laughing is not what I conclude as fleeing. It is but my opinion based on little more than the picture you provided. None of the pictures I have would be permitted herein. Those people were indeed fleeing for their very lives.

Chowing

01-26-2012, 07:43 PM

Nigeria has been a failing state for at least 25 years or possibly more. We have a talent for dancing on the edge of the cliff without falling.

When I was in my teens there was a massive exodus from Western Nigeria and the real threat of a Civil War but nothing happened. When Dad was a young man, there was an actual Civil War, but Nigeria still remained intact after the event. (My Dad fled Kaduna by air).

Can we survive all this? The jury is still out on that.

For the nine years that I lived in the nation of Benin (1997-2006), I often wondered 'if Nigeria had very serious internal fighting, fleeing refugees could cover up Benin in a few short days.

BTW, we sure benefited from bootlegged, subsidized petrol from Nigeria. Main roads covered with makeshift stands selling petrol by the five and ten liter bottles. Occasionally cars would run into the stand causing great infernos.

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:46 PM

What do you guys think about this?

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Libyan civil war might have given militant groups in Africa's Sahel region like Boko Haram and al Qaeda access to large weapons caches, according to a U.N. report released on Thursday.

The report on the impact of the Libyan civil war on countries of the Sahel region that straddle the Sahara - including Nigeria, Niger and Chad - also says some national authorities believe the Islamist sect Boko Haram, which killed more than 500 people last year and more than 250 this year in Nigeria, has increasing links to al Qaeda's North African wing.

The U.N. Security Council will discuss the report, which was prepared by a U.N. assessment team that met with officials from countries in the region, at a meeting later on Thursday.

"The governments of the countries visited indicated that, in spite of efforts to control their borders, large quantities of weapons and ammunition from Libyan stockpiles were smuggled into the Sahel region," the report said.

Such weapons include "rocket-propelled grenades, machine guns with anti-aircraft visors, automatic rifles, ammunition, grenades, explosives (Semtex), and light anti-aircraft artillery (light calibre bi-tubes) mounted on vehicles," it said

http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL2E8CQ9GQ20120126

Stan

01-26-2012, 07:46 PM

Stan said,

Very interesting observation.

That just add fuel to your observation. What are the Christians feeling and desiring to see take place in light of the economic plight of the north? Why do Muslims seem so much more upset.

I think it goes back to more what Kingjaja was saying a few weeks back about how upset they are about the way the government security hit back at them in 2009.

Chowing,
Are you referring to the link I provided ? I don't recall saying anything like that lately (although I'm getting old).

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 07:50 PM

Can Boko Haram destabilise Northern Cameroon and Southern Niger in addition to Nigeria? Are we looking at a scenario in which Boko Haram could extend beyond Nigeria's borders, establish bases and launch attacks?

If Nigeria is poorly governed and policed, then Northern Cameroon and Southern Niger are even less well governed and policed.

If that plays out, it becomes even more difficult to root it out.

Stan

01-26-2012, 07:50 PM

What do you guys think about this?

It's a reality. There are already teams desperately trying to round up and destroy ordnance and account for weapons all over Libya. The concern however is more about the rebel forces deciding not to relinquish their arms and turn over power to the government (whoever that is).

The UN has money, but not the manpower in the pertinent skill sets.

Chowing

01-26-2012, 07:51 PM

Chowing,
Are you referring to the link I provided ? I don't recall saying anything like that lately (although I'm getting old).

Ooops, my bad. It was an observation by Kingjaja:

What about Christians in Northern Nigeria? Some estimates put the percentage of Christians in Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) as high as 30%. If there is a popular social movement against economic marginalization, why aren't Christians part of it?

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 08:04 PM

Very interesting observation. I was attending a presentation just on Monday where the presenter, a missions statistician claimed that there are many more
Christians in the north, in fact, he said the country is not divided 50/50 Christian/Muslim. "those facts are what Muslims put out to make them seem stronger in numbers than they really are in Nigeria."

That just add fuel to your observation. What are the Christians feeling and desiring to see take place in light of the economic plight of the north? Why do Muslims seem so much more upset.

I think it goes back to more what Kingjaja was saying a few weeks back about how upset they are about the way the government security hit back at them in 2009.

The same presenter, Patrick Johnstone, went on to make an even broader statement:

Not a single Christian in Northern Nigeria believes that there is an economic justification for Boko Haram and the associated violence. Western analysts spin that line, but no Christian in Northern Nigeria is buying it.

The Christian population of Nigeria is yet to respond in kind to the provocation and many efforts are being made to cool tempers. But with each passing day, the probability of Lebanon-style all out war increases.

People are buying guns.

Interesting you touched on the issue of Muslim population. Most Southerners and Christians believe that the population figures for Muslims in the North are inflated. During the last census (2006) - Muslim leaders fought against the inclusion of religion on census forms, why?

Nigeria has never held an uncontroversial census. In fact, Southerners and Christians believe that the British connived with the North to inflate the numbers of Muslims and Northerners in the pre-independence census. (Many Nigerians hate the Brits for a host of different reasons).

Read this.

No-one knows how many Nigerians there are - and until now the authorities have been too afraid to find out.

Legend has it that one out of every five black people on Earth is a Nigerian. But that can only be an assumption, for every headcount held in Nigeria in the past 30 years has ended in national controversy and with strong allegations of population inflation.

The last census was carried out in 1991. Its figures - which are regarded only as being marginally less manipulated than the others - put the total population at 88.9 million, almost equally divided between the two sexes.

Since then the population has been projected on an annual growth rate of about 2.9%. The official projected figure for 2003 was 126 million.

Headcount

A new census was to have been held between November and December last year. Preparations for it by the National Population Commission (NPC) started in 2003.

But last July, President Olusegun Obasanjo delayed the exercise until this coming March.

The official reason given for the postponement was that vital material would not arrive from abroad in time for the headcount to be held as scheduled.

What was not openly acknowledged was the gathering political storm over the type of data to be collected.

The controversy relates to ethnicity and religion. How many Nigerians are Muslims and how many are Christians? What is the strength of each ethnic group in the country?

Traditional and political leaders in the largely Muslim northern states announced last year their strong opposition to the inclusion of questions on religious persuasion and ethnicity in the census questionnaire.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4512240.stm

So those figures being bandied around as Nigeria's population and religious/ethnic composition are most likely, wrong.

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 08:08 PM

It's a reality. There are already teams desperately trying to round up and destroy ordnance and account for weapons all over Libya. The concern however is more about the rebel forces deciding not to relinquish their arms and turn over power to the government (whoever that is).

The UN has money, but not the manpower in the pertinent skill sets.

Does it have anything to do with the fact that Salafist elements hold prominent positions in the NTC? Can we now say that BH has already got this stuff?

KingJaja

01-26-2012, 11:32 PM

Church newspaper, claims 35,000 Christians have already fled Northern Nigeria. Figure seems small by Congolese standards, but is still significant.

UP to 35,000 people have fled from the north of Nigeria following ongoing attacks by Boko Haram.
Last Friday (20th January), the extremist Islamist group carried out attacks in Kano city, Borno State killing at least 160 people.
According to reports received by Aid to the Church in Need on the 24th January from Church sources in the country up to 35,000 people left their homes following the violence.

ACN was told: “People just run away to where they think they’ll be safe, especially to Jos and further south.”
One source added: “There is panic. Many just leave everything behind, and run for safety, because they do not know when violence might flare up again.
There was a large number of Catholics among those fleeing, who reported that churches were destroyed in Maidiguri, Borno State and Bauchi, Bauchi State on Sunday (22nd January).
ACN was told: “It is the stated goal of Boko Haram to make the whole of the north free of Christians.”
At the beginning of January, group spokesman, Abul Qaqa, gave Christians living in the north with a three-day ultimatum to leave.

Boko Haram, which means “western education is sinful” in Nigeria’s Hausa language, has killed at least 935 people since it launched an uprising in 2009, according to Human Rights Watch.
This includes more than 250 at the beginning of 2012.
According to the report 550 people were killed in 115 separate attacks by Boko Haram last year, mostly in Borno State.

http://members4.boardhost.com/acnaus/msg/1327618188.html

Dayuhan

01-26-2012, 11:41 PM

Does it have anything to do with the fact that Salafist elements hold prominent positions in the NTC?

Not necessarily. I'd guess that militant Salafists in the NTC are more likely to be stockpiling arms for their own militias, anticipating an eventual civil war and a possibility of taking over Libya.

Ideology is not the only factor in the spread of weapons. Money is at least as important, maybe more so. Weapons are portable, salable, and valuable: if you're a member of the old regime or its army and on the run, whatever you can bring is likely to be sold to anyone with cash, regardless of ideology. People on the run need money.

Can we now say that BH has already got this stuff?

Not unlikely, but not certain either. You'll know when they show up. Libya isn't the only source of arms by any means. They may show up in the hands of Christians as well, or anyone else with money to pay for them.

Foreign supporters of BH are more likely to send money than arms. Money moves very easily, and shipping arms is a hassle. In an environment where black market arms are easily obtained, sending money makes a lot more sense than trying to ship weaponry.

KingJaja

01-27-2012, 12:58 AM

Not unlikely, but not certain either. You'll know when they show up. Libya isn't the only source of arms by any means. They may show up in the hands of Christians as well, or anyone else with money to pay for them.

Foreign supporters of BH are more likely to send money than arms. Money moves very easily, and shipping arms is a hassle. In an environment where black market arms are easily obtained, sending money makes a lot more sense than trying to ship weaponry.

Well Christians tend to source their weapons from the South - via the same channels the Niger Delta Militants use. I guess they'll also be open to whoever has guns.

I really fear a war along religious lines, the kind of firepower Christians can bring to bear is worrying - most of Nigeria's Diaspora is Christian and the Diaspora sends about $10 billion a year in remittances. A lot of weapons can be bought with such money.

Muslims are no slouches either. One or two billionaires are Muslim and could keep the war going on for quite some time.

We pray for peace.

Chowing

01-27-2012, 03:23 PM

This article from Sahara Reporters talks about another relocation trend in Nigeria - leaving the country entirely.

There was a time when the end goal of most migrs was to return home once their mission was accomplished. Data may show that 80 per cent or more of Nigerians who left for Europe and for North America between 1952 and 1972, returned home. Data may also show that the number of returnees began to decline in 1976/77, and alarmingly by 1985. Between 1990 and 2005, some 90 per cent knew they were not returning to that messed up country any time soon.

Today, that number is about 98 per cent. Nigerians are moving to countries they otherwise wouldnt consider. They are checking out to God-forsaken and far-flung places. It didnt matter if these places are war zones, famine-ridden places, or places that were as cold or as hot as hell. Anywhere but Nigeria! Some even brave the hostility of the Sahara Desert just to get to Europe.

http://mobile.saharareporters.com/article/why-some-nigerians-do-not-want-relocate

It also speaks of the cold reception those who have left years ago get upon their return. Besides the cold shoulder, they are often poorer than those who have stayed in Nigeria.

I wonder Kingjaja if you agree that there is a noticeable uptick in Nigerians leaving the country.

KingJaja

01-27-2012, 04:12 PM

It also speaks of the cold reception those who have left years ago get upon their return. Besides the cold shoulder, they are often poorer than those who have stayed in Nigeria.

I wonder Kingjaja if you agree that there is a noticeable uptick in Nigerians leaving the country.

There has been a mad rush to leave Nigeria since the 1980's, nothing new here. In the 80's, the IMF-mandated structural adjustment program decimated the middle-class, all sorts of hustlers, businessmen and opportunists followed suit.

I have three brothers, they have all settled in the West. Most of my classmates in university / high school have settled abroad. Nigeria's best have left Nigeria.

Stan

01-27-2012, 04:38 PM

This article from Sahara Reporters talks about another relocation trend in Nigeria - leaving the country entirely.

Nice story Chowing !

The numbers seemed skewed and I wonder if the author intentionally left out refugees and asylum seekers from 94 to 2005. Cameroon reported over 60 thousand although the UN claims that some 8,000 returned in late 2005. USA and half of Europe data indicates another 82 thousand with no returnees.

Given the circumstances, I'm certain that most of the asylum applicants were legit and some that weren't, simply wanted to escape poor socioeconomic conditions (pretty routine for the region even now).

As for the cold shoulder returnees such as here with independence, most that stayed and endured felt those that left and came back with their fortunes and taste of freedom had abandoned their homeland. However, not many actually returned poorer than when they left.

Chowing

01-27-2012, 07:48 PM

Boko Haram 'leader' turns President's appeal to set down an discuss matters and responds with threat. Just released on AP wire.

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) - The leader of a radical Islamist sect launching increasingly bloody attacks in Nigeria has rejected offers for a negotiated peace, instead promising to kidnap government officials' family members and bomb schools, according to an Internet audio message allegedly posted by the group......."If (Nigerian security forces) are going to places of worship and destroying them, like mosques and Quranic schools, you have primary schools as well, you have secondary schools and universities and we will start bombing them," Shekau said. "Touch us and see. That is what we will do."
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_260798/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=MdDAftjf

I see in the report that the message was sent to Goodluck on Wednesday. Western reporters often late, maybe they take longer to check out story ;)

KingJaja

01-27-2012, 08:53 PM

From the Guardian:

The Islamist group Boko Haram, which has killed almost 1,000 people in Nigeria, will continue its campaign of violence until the country is ruled by sharia law, a senior member has told the Guardian.

"We will consider negotiation only when we have brought the government to their knees," the spokesman, Abu Qaqa, said in the group's first major interview with a western newspaper. "Once we see that things are being done according to the dictates of Allah, and our members are released [from prison], we will only put aside our arms – but we will not lay them down. You don't put down your arms in Islam, you only put them aside."

Qaqa, whose name is a pseudonym, said the group's members were spiritual followers of al-Qaida, and claimed they had met senior figures in the network founded by Osama bin Laden during visits to Saudia Arabia.

The interview comes a week after Boko Haram claimed responsibility for Nigeria's single deadliest terrorist attack, which killed 186 people in the northern city of Kano.

In an audio message posted on YouTube on Friday, the group's current leader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened to bomb schools and kidnap family members of government officials.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/27/boko-haram-nigeria-sharia-law

I am waiting for the Christian reaction, it is long overdue.

Chowing

01-27-2012, 10:14 PM

I only wish that the message was just upping the rhetoric. However, BH seem hell bent on backing up their words, and I have no doubt that they will.

Stay safe, Kingjaja.

Stan

01-28-2012, 02:06 PM

Just a tad more intriguing that simply blaming everything on a defunct terrorist organization :rolleyes:

“Many arrests have been made since the attacks. We have arrested around 200 attackers and 80 per cent of them are Chadians (http://odili.net/news/source/2012/jan/27/836.html). They came in as mercenaries,” agency reports on Thursday quoted an anonymous police source to have said.

The source added that the Chadians were engaged and paid by the terrorist Islamic sect, Boko Haram, to participate in the Kano multiple attacks in which at least 250 people were feared killed.

However, the police are known to carry out indiscriminate arrests after major crimes and thus it is too early to say if the men arrested took part in the attacks.

“Following previous attacks by Boko Haram, the security forces have often resorted to dragnet arrests, rather than arresting people on the basis of reasonable suspicion that they committed an offence,” Amnesty International had said in a statement issued during the week.

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 02:55 PM

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 02:57 PM

More on that:

It was a very different Sahel security summit this week for the foreign ministers of Mali, Mauritania, Algeria, Niger and guest Nigeria.

The countries confirmed the link between al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian terrorist organisation Boko Haram for the first time, pledging Tuesday (January 24th) in Nouakchott to work together against the shared threat to African stability and development.

Four days earlier, Boko Haram (meaning "western education is forbidden") killed more than 200 people in a series of co-ordinated bomb and gun attacks in Kano, Nigeria's second-largest city.

Scores more have died in attacks on churches, hotels and public buildings since the start of the year. Human Rights Watch says that 550 people were killed last year in 115 separate attacks engineered by Boko Haram, including the UN bombing in Abuja.

"There is a proven connection between AQIM and Boko Haram," Malian Foreign Minister Soumeylou Boubye Maga said at the Nouakchott ministerial meeting.

Nigerian foreign minister Mohamed Bazoum said he was concerned about the situation in his country, due to the rise of Boko Haram, whose connections to AQIM were "more than just simple conjecture".

http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/reportage/2012/01/27/reportage-01

Chowing

01-28-2012, 03:53 PM

Forgive me, but I think that is BS. I doubt that the rank and file of BH are Chadians.

I am tracking with you there. The government can ill-afford to continually give BH Nigerians the credit for these attacks. By rounding up Chadians and placing blame on them, the government is attempting to accomplish several things:
1. showing that they are not ineffective (wow, we rounded up a bunch of easily spotted Chadians).
2. placing the blame outside of Nigeria (these foreigners are the ones causing the trouble)
3. they are not rounding up BH members (maybe BH will not hit back at us so hard if it is Chadians that we arrest)
4. deflecting attention away from the political elite in the north (they are still too hot a potato to deal with)

On another note, BH seems to be the biggest thing going for AQ right now. The potential for damage and destabilisation is huge. BH is like a parasite on a very healthy host:

1. Nigeria is much richer than Somalia.
2. Nigeria is much more strategic than Somalia
3. Northern Nigeria is much more isolated than Somalia - i.e. it is more difficult (for a SEAL combat team) to get to N. Nigeria than it is to get to Somalia, the politics is also more complicated.
4. If you control N. Nigeria you can control the the Sahel.

The temptation to get involved in BH must be irresistible. In Somalia, you have the simple option of firing a few drones and doing periodic raids. You can't fire drones in N.Nigeria without destabilising Nigeria - and the Nigerian Military and Security Services are incompetent.

I agree. There is no way that AQ is not going to be interested in what is going on in northern Nigeria. You have stated good reasons for them to be involved. How much involvement? Who knows? How much involvement is dangerous? Even the slightest involvement is dangerous:
1. BH can use the belief of AQ involvement as a recruiting tool.
2. Expertise in weapons expertise and strategy planning, even in small doses, can lead to horrendous bombings.

Kingjaja, you state that

the south is Nigeria isn't too bothered by Boko Haram as long as they don't cross the river. The Middle Belt however, is where the first set of pitched battles will take place.

Lagos is one of the largest (soon to be the largest) target on the planet in terms of population. Is security any better there? Or, is it just a matter of time before BH strikes that metacity?

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 05:01 PM

Lagos is ethnic Yoruba. Although Lagos has a significant Islamic population, Yorubas practice a more tolerant form of Islam than the Hausa-Fulani. For example, in a family it is not unusual to see the father going to Church while the mother and some of the children are Muslims.

(A bit like Islam in Sierra Leone)

Secondly, BH needs a permissive environment to operate - they can hide very easily in N. Nigeria, but Hausa-Fulanis stick out like a sore thumb in S. Nigeria (not to you guys, but we can tell the difference in an instant). So, it is extremely easy to pick out suspicious characters.

Does that mean that BH cannot pull off a successful strike in Lagos? No, but that strike is likely to be the last, because it will trigger an avalanche of reprisal killings - all Hausas are likely to be fair game. So the Hausa community in Lagos is extremely motivated in ensuring that it does not happen.

(All major ethnic groups in Southern Nigeria are represented in Lagos. The impact of a successful hit on Nigeria's unity and the economy is best imagined. It would very easily send Nigeria on the road to Sierra Leone)

This doesn't mean that Abubakar Shekau and his ilk don't see Lagos as a tantalising target, but it will be much more difficult for them to pull off Lagos.

There also is a political component to BH, it makes no sense to attack Lagos and risk uniting the entire South and Middle Belt against the North. A successful attack on Lagos is likely to hurt the North more than it hurts Jonathan.

All said, AQ probably has Nigeria firmly in its sights. This is an exciting new project for them. AQ has a lot of experience dealing with Muslim-majority nations, this is new; a 50-50, Muslim-Christian nation in the least governed continent on earth.

I am trying to guess how they'll approach this tantalizing new frontier. Triggering a nation-wide sectarian crisis would deflect attention from them and leave them free to roam the Sahel. On the other hand, less "jihadist" elements in BH might decide that carving out space in Northern Nigeria is sufficient - no need to proceed South.

The greatest unknown is how the Christian population in Northern Nigeria will react. The Nigerian Government could secretly train and arm them to put pressure on BH (If you notice, many of the top positions in the Military are occupied by Northern Christians and Southerners).

Stan

01-28-2012, 05:10 PM

Forgive me, but I think that is BS. I doubt that the rank and file of BH are Chadians.

The Nigerian Police are as dishonest as they are incompetent. If they said they were Nigerians, the next question would be who are they, where do they come from and what ties do they have with the political elite?

Saying they are Chadians immediately deflects these questions.

On another note, BH seems to be the biggest thing going for AQ right now. The potential for damage and destabilisation is huge. BH is like a parasite on a very healthy host:

1. Nigeria is much richer than Somalia.
2. Nigeria is much more strategic than Somalia
3. Northern Nigeria is much more isolated than Somalia - i.e. it is more difficult (for a SEAL combat team) to get to N. Nigeria than it is to get to Somalia, the politics is also more complicated.
4. If you control N. Nigeria you can control the the Sahel.

Touché !
While I somewhat agree, I did and still do conclude some consider BH something they are not. And, I submit, the Chadian twist is certainly more believable that the BH simply getting better in 2 years by reading books on the tactics of others.

Although I seriously doubt the USN or USA (Army) would involve themselves in Nigeria, I'm more than certain that the Bin Laden raid was a little more difficult than that of Northern Nigeria in the terms you have concluded above.

The temptation to get involved in BH must be irresistible. In Somalia, you have the simple option of firing a few drones and doing periodic raids. You can't fire drones in N.Nigeria without destabilising Nigeria - and the Nigerian Military and Security Services are incompetent.

I don't get your point herein.

Finally, some people were nit-picking about the sophistication of the attacks. They don't need to be too sophisticated to operate successfully in Nigeria at this point in time.

That is and still would be me. This latest round of activities has yet to change my mind, but that should not be an issue as it seems you have concluded otherwise. I'm not here to change your mind and BH has yet to produce sound and clear evidence of their capabilities. Mercenaries with decades of fighting in the open desert is a lot more believable albeit unlikely as you put.

Also they might not be too concerned about Westerners now, they are in the hearts and minds stage right now - they know that every successful attack leads to brutal and indiscriminate response by the Nigerian Military, winning converts for them. They tried this in Damaturu, Maiduguri and now Kano, it works like a charm.

Unfortunately, Southern Nigeria isn't too bothered by Boko Haram as long as they don't cross the river. The Middle Belt however, is where the first set of pitched battles will take place.

We seem to go back and forth here on this issue. I don't see BH remotely interested in the Westerners and their statements have yet to even elude to wanting them.

Lastly, your press won't even call them terrorists. Other than some bloggers, nobody seems to conclude they are. Why would I ?

Chowing

01-28-2012, 05:26 PM

Secondly, BH needs a permissive environment to operate - they can hide very easily in N. Nigeria, but Hausa-Fulanis stick out like a sore thumb in S. Nigeria (not to you guys, but we can tell the difference in an instant). So, it is extremely easy to pick out suspicious characters.

I understand that they would stick out and they have a lot to risk by helping or even allow such an attack to take place in Lagos. Yet, it is a huge, tantalizing target, but the eminent worries lay, as you point out, in the north and central belt.

The greatest unknown is how the Christian population in Northern Nigeria will react. The Nigerian Government could secretly train and arm them to put pressure on BH (If you notice, many of the top positions in the Military are occupied by Northern Christians and Southerners).

The idea of Christians attacking is repulsive to me, but history is replete with such action, even some of the worst. But, people seem to be able to take only so much before they retaliate.

This brings the big question of how would one retaliate against BH? Do Christians in the north know where they are hiding? The government does not seem to know. Or, will they retaliate by hitting Muslim targets (which is quite another matter) like mosques and darasas? Hitting out at Islamic targets in general is sure to hasten a civil war.

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 05:43 PM

What is politically possible in Pakistan may not be politically possible in Nigeria. The SEAL team could operate easily in N.Nigeria, but there will be no Pakistani Army to call the nation to order after the fact in this case.

I meant "the temptation of getting involved in N.Nigeria". AQ will feel much safer in N.Nigeria than in Somalia. In Somalia they have the Ethiopians, Kenyans and AU breathing down their necks. They also have the US Spec Ops forces from Djibouti.

It will be politically impossible for the US to operate with the same degree of freedom in N.Nigeria.

Secondly, there is nothing to suggest that Boko Haram will not eventually attack Western targets. Imam Shekau, in his rambling speech signaled his intention to do so, the UN building bombing was a clear indication of that intent. As I said earlier, they are "consolidating their support base" - the Nigerian Police is rightly reviled in most of N.Nigeria and they are seen as "Robin Hood" type figures.

Reports on the ground suggest that they go out of their way to say they are not against the Muslim ummah, but that they are against corrupt politicians, the Police and CAN (Christian Association of Nigeria).

A sure vote winner in those parts.

As I said earlier, Northern Nigeria has never been really pro-American. Not since the 1979 revolution in Iran. It doesn't help that the American/Western footprint in that part of Nigeria has always been very light, so there hasn't been much opportunity to dispel these feelings.

The VOA broadcasts in Hausa, but I doubt whether US policy makers are interested in the message transmitted by VOA. News tends to be general, no real effort at strategic communication.

Well, I read Nigerian newspapers and our newspapers call them terrorists.

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 05:48 PM

Bill Moore

01-28-2012, 05:51 PM

http://www.eurasiareview.com/27012012-faltering-al-qaeda-turns-to-boko-haram/

It was a very different Sahel security summit this week for the foreign ministers of Mali, Mauritania, Algeria, Niger and guest Nigeria.

The countries confirmed the link between al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian terrorist organisation Boko Haram for the first time, pledging Tuesday (January 24th) in Nouakchott to work together against the shared threat to African stability and development.

Stan

01-28-2012, 08:36 PM

http://www.eurasiareview.com/27012012-faltering-al-qaeda-turns-to-boko-haram/

Bill,
Nice article (again) by Raby Ould Idoumou. Ever read any of his other collections ? He tends to see terror groups every 600 meters.

Stan

01-28-2012, 09:03 PM

What is politically possible in Pakistan may not be politically possible in Nigeria. The SEAL team could operate easily in N.Nigeria, but there will be no Pakistani Army to call the nation to order after the fact in this case.

Assuming it was a political fiasco that most of us think was, it was still a surgical op that lasted less than hours. You concluded they could not operate in Nigeria due to its wealth, education and size - something you recite quite often as a response. I conclude that it would be relatively easy to perform (targeting an individual regardless of which country) which I have seen more times than I care to recant.

Whatever !

I meant "the temptation of getting involved in N.Nigeria". AQ will feel much safer in N.Nigeria than in Somalia. In Somalia they have the Ethiopians, Kenyans and AU breathing down their necks. They also have the US Spec Ops forces from Djibouti.

That situation took years to fester and the Nigerian neighbors would be equally challenging once it became a pain in the Alpha to deal with under economic and political pressure. And, Nigeria already has USA SOF a lot closer to home than you care to think.

It will be politically impossible for the US to operate with the same degree of freedom in N.Nigeria.

This assumes that the politicians have yet to agree to such an op. I contend they already have - both parties are in deep Sierra and both (as some seem to conclude) need each other. Talk about perception problems with AFRICOM :D

Secondly, there is nothing to suggest that Boko Haram will not eventually attack Western targets. Imam Shekau, in his rambling speech signaled his intention to do so, the UN building bombing was a clear indication of that intent. As I said earlier, they are "consolidating their support base" - the Nigerian Police is rightly reviled in most of N.Nigeria and they are seen as "Robin Hood" type figures..

Most conclude the UN bombing was not performed by the BH bunch and have some theories that sound a little easier to swallow than the BH just being late to claim having done it. No matter - I'm the one that wonders why they have yet to go for easy and higher profile targets with little to no sophistication required. What support base would be required in order to take out a drunk expat on a Friday evening in town ? There's only 25,000 to choose from. All one needs is a hungry 10-year old. Support base ?

As I said earlier, Northern Nigeria has never been really pro-American. Not since the 1979 revolution in Iran. It doesn't help that the American/Western footprint in that part of Nigeria has always been very light, so there hasn't been much opportunity to dispel these feelings.

There's 25,000 Yanks there pumping oil - light footprint ? Are you joking ?

The VOA broadcasts in Hausa, but I doubt whether US policy makers are interested in the message transmitted by VOA. News tends to be general, no real effort at strategic communication.

You got me there... I've never listened to the VOA and have no clue who funds their broadcasts. I have however worked with CA and PSYOP types and never had a clue what they were doing in Sub-Sahara.

Well, I read Nigerian newspapers and our newspapers call them terrorists.

Let's just go to the Saturday Tribune (http://tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/front-page-articles/6482-boko-haram-17-suspected-sect-members-arrested-in-enugu--as-heavily-armed-soldiers-take-over-kano-streets.html) or This Day Online (http://www.thisdayonline.com/) for example and do a quick search for just the word "terrorist". Nothing. Most of all your papers call them: Boko Haram sect

I've mentioned this several times to you herein about your own news afraid of the T word. Why would the Americans have to classify them as said if your folks can't even muster the T word ?

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 10:05 PM

There's 25,000 Yanks there pumping oil - light footprint ? Are you joking ?

There is no oil in Northern Nigeria and hence very few Westerners there. If you've been to Nigeria you'll understand that Nigeria's far North and Nigeria's South are essentially different countries.

I still maintain that it would be politically impossible for the US to operate with the same degree of freedom in Northern Nigeria. Northern Nigeria is not Somalia and any escalation of US involvement would be seen as a triumph of the largely Christian South over the mainly Islamic North.

(Secondly, given the record of the US Military in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is even debatable whether such involvement would be beneficial - that's a topic for another day. I think I know another group of people who can do the job equally well with minimum fuss.)

Even the former US Ambassador to Nigeria understands this fact.

The Northern Islamic elite (who are still very powerful politically - largest single bloc in National Assembly) will oppose it. It will deny them of their political legitimacy.

There's a lot more to the Nigeria media than Thisday and the Tribune. The Punch claims to have the widest readership, there is The Sun, P.M News, The Guardian, Leadership, The Nation, The Vanguard and several other publications.

We must have close to 100 different news publications with new publications being created every other day (and going bust with the same frequency).

You tend to forget that Nigeria is a democracy (albeit imperfect). So people have some latitude to speak their minds. Most of the media is in the South but The Daily Trust is considered the voice of the North.

Quick search of The Sun's website yielded this:

Unfortunately, when idle minds, especially the illiterate ones with a blinkered religious dogma, cultivating evil thoughts converge with criminal tendencies, extremists of worst kinds emerge. Nigeria harbors many people like this whose actions will continue to ignite the inferno that will engulf the nation sooner or later. In addition, Boko Haram terrorists are emboldened by the silence of their alleged highly-placed masterminds, who refused to condemn the killing of Christians. As a result, Nigeria could be characterized as so fractured and heavily enamored of the extreme ethnic and religious terrorists whose nuances and actions are aimed at producing incendiary and destructive outcome. The nation is, indeed, sitting on the edge and grappling with the situation seems elusive.

http://sunnewsonline.com/webpages/opinion/2012/jan/10/opinion-10-01-2012-002.html

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 10:21 PM

From an editorial in The Sun. Proves the news media isn't afraid of the T word. Secondly, not every thing that appears on the news stands in Lagos appears online.

The savage killings and wanton destruction of property that characterised the recent terror attacks in Damaturu, Yobe State, have left a shell shocked nation and many commentators scratching their heads and searching for answers to the Boko Haram phenomenon. The carnage left in its wake over a hundred dead bodies. Charred remains of vehicles dotted the streets of Damaturu, and many public buildings went up in smoke. This is not the Nigeria many of us dreamt of or grew up to know.

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/news/national/2011/dec/24/national-24-12-2011-008.html

A news story captioned "Negotiating with Boko Haram terrorists" in the The Daily Eagle : http://www.thedailyeagles.com/2012/01/25/negotiating-with-boko-haram-terrorists/

Another story captioned Terrorists may bomb Abuja Luxury Hotels in The Guardian. http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=66799:-terrorists-may-bomb-abuja-luxury-hotels-us-alerts&catid=1:national&Itemid=559

KingJaja

01-28-2012, 10:29 PM

From The Punch

THE latest onslaught of the violent Islamic terror group, Boko Haram, has once again demonstrated its growing level of sophistication and the danger it poses to the continued existence of Nigeria as a corporate entity. If anyone had doubted Boko Haram’s capacity for blood-curdling carnage, that doubt must have evaporated with last Friday’s coordinated bombings in the northern city of Kano that have so far claimed more than 200 lives and destroyed property worth billions of naira. There cannot be a better time for a government that is fully aware of its responsibilities to its citizens to act decisively to prevent the blood-letting from reaching other parts of the country.

http://www.punchng.com/editorial/jonathan-stop-the-spread-of-boko-haram/

Convinced now?

Dayuhan

01-28-2012, 11:18 PM

The countries confirmed the link between al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian terrorist organisation Boko Haram for the first time, pledging Tuesday (January 24th) in Nouakchott to work together against the shared threat to African stability and development.

Are there any reliable descriptions of the nature and extent of these "links"? It's a dangerous word, and often abused. There are all sorts of links possible, some of them tenuous and transient, and governments have a way of talking up AQ "links" as a way to try and persuade the US to throw money at the problem... or at least to throw money at them, since little of the money generally goes to the problem!

Certainly there's potential there for AQ, but I wouldn't want to assume that the potential has translated to an actual presence and actual affiliation without solid evidence. Potential is often not effectively exploitable: AQ's efforts to exploit prolonged sectarian violence in the Philippines, for example, have been ineffective.

There's certainly room for discussion of what AQ could do, as well as what they actually have done and are doing, but it wouldn't do to confuse them, and Americans should be very wary about being drawn into fights on the basis of loosely specified AQ "links".

Chowing

01-29-2012, 03:59 AM

Just found this article from today's Sahara Reports. Gives further evidence to what Kingjaja has been saying about the northern elites money and BH infiltration in all the security forces and beyond.

Several top security personnel in Nigeria have exclusively told SaharaReporters on condition of anonymity that the Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, popularly known as Boko Haram, is multi-billion naira organization.

One source said the extremist Islamist group has a substantial financial base and has invested millions of naira to penetrate Nigeria’s security agencies, obtaining vital and sensitive data. In addition, Boko Haram reportedly is embedded with many other institutions in Nigeria and beyond.

Our sources revealed that the Nigeria police are the institution most penetrated by Boko Haram. “Both President Jonathan and National Security Adviser, Gen. Azazi, have vital reports about Boko Haram’s in-roads in the police and other security outfits,” said one source. He added: “We don’t know why they are not acting.”

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/boko-haram-multi-billion-naira-outfit-security-source

Entire article worth a read.

Stan

01-29-2012, 07:17 AM

From The Punch

http://www.punchng.com/editorial/jonathan-stop-the-spread-of-boko-haram/

Convinced now?

Not Really !
With the few exceptions such as

in whose custody the alleged mastermind of some terrorist acts
There's little more.

The Daily Eagles, other than the title, just goes into terrorism in general. Sort of a 101 course for idiots.

And, The Guardian gets it about right

However, while the Security Council expressly described the incidents as terrorist attacks, the Secretary-General’s statement appeared to have been restrained, describing them as “armed attacks and bombing.”

And this one I already sent you under a travel warning - which is fairly boring stuff to keep the DOS from having to say they neglected to mention there could be travel-related problems. Sort of a CYA.

“Radical sect responsible for attacks that left more than 100 people dead in Nigeria this week could bomb three luxury hotels frequented by foreigners in the oil-rich nation’s capital”, the U.S. Embassy warned yesterday.

Stan

01-29-2012, 07:41 AM

There is no oil in Northern Nigeria and hence very few Westerners there. If you've been to Nigeria you'll understand that Nigeria's far North and Nigeria's South are essentially different countries.

I must have misunderstood you slightly when you said a light footprint. I was speaking in generalities for the entire country. But, if BH in fact did bomb the UN building, then they are obviously ready to cross into the South for operations. That would mean it is relatively easy to work on kidnapping and killing. You also indicated that we don't really know who the BH are and to what extent they have infiltrated the government and military. I would take that to mean the BH are already in the Southern region.

I still maintain that it would be politically impossible for the US to operate with the same degree of freedom in Northern Nigeria. Northern Nigeria is not Somalia and any escalation of US involvement would be seen as a triumph of the largely Christian South over the mainly Islamic North.

Fair enough. My point was only that your current administration has most likely already concluded agreements with Western governments and as these things go, they are open ended with a ton of room for expansion and misconception.

(Secondly, given the record of the US Military in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is even debatable whether such involvement would be beneficial - that's a topic for another day. I think I know another group of people who can do the job equally well with minimum fuss.)

Even the former US Ambassador to Nigeria understands this fact.

I completely agree with you. I was merely responding to your comment on the presence of SOF in the region.

The Northern Islamic elite (who are still very powerful politically - largest single bloc in National Assembly) will oppose it. It will deny them of their political legitimacy.

Not sure if that would matter - assuming Goodluck Johnathan has already given the green light to cooperate in anti-terrorism ops.

We must have close to 100 different news publications with new publications being created every other day (and going bust with the same frequency).

You tend to forget that Nigeria is a democracy (albeit imperfect). So people have some latitude to speak their minds. Most of the media is in the South but The Daily Trust is considered the voice of the North.

I am well aware of the fact Nigeria is a democracy and having latitude to speak freely is part of that freedom. What I didn't know was which daily papers tend to be "pro-north" and "pro/south". A good point ! I would (perhaps wrongfully) assume that a pro-north news publication would be promoting BH as terrorists - again assuming BH wants to even be labelled as such. Have they even outright called themselves terrorists ?

Dayuhan

01-29-2012, 11:13 AM

One source said the extremist Islamist group has a substantial financial base and has invested millions of naira to penetrate Nigeria’s security agencies, obtaining vital and sensitive data. In addition, Boko Haram reportedly is embedded with many other institutions in Nigeria and beyond.

Our sources revealed that the Nigeria police are the institution most penetrated by Boko Haram. “Both President Jonathan and National Security Adviser, Gen. Azazi, have vital reports about Boko Haram’s in-roads in the police and other security outfits,” said one source. He added: “We don’t know why they are not acting.”

These references to "our sources" and "one source" are suspect and devalue the conclusions, I'd think. Is it not possible that these sources - and possibly those who publish their comments - have vested interests in promoting certain points of view? Not that any of what they suggest is impossible, but I'd hesitate to grant unquestioning belief to items so poorly sourced and supported.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 01:45 PM

I must have misunderstood you slightly when you said a light footprint. I was speaking in generalities for the entire country. But, if BH in fact did bomb the UN building, then they are obviously ready to cross into the South for operations. That would mean it is relatively easy to work on kidnapping and killing. You also indicated that we don't really know who the BH are and to what extent they have infiltrated the government and military. I would take that to mean the BH are already in the Southern region.

The UN building is in Abuja, Abuja is in Northern Nigeria. Abuja has a predominantly Muslim indigenous population. (I have lived in Abuja).

Boko Haram will find it extremely difficult to cross the river. Unlike, Uganda and Kenya where Al Shabab can do a little bombing and get away with little consequences, any attempt by BH to do something similar in the Niger Delta will result in massive retaliation killings (probably with the tacit support of senior Niger Delta politicians).

There are also logistical considerations. You've got to travel at least 800 km (or possibly longer) to get there. You can't set up shop in a day.

You've also got to have safe houses within the Hausa community in the Niger Delta. Unlike the West, Africans are communal. You don't have new entrants in closely-knit communities without everyone having clue as to what is going on.

It is not likely that the Hausa community in the Niger Delta will tolerate the presence of BH elements in their midst - they understand the consequences. This is why it has been relatively easier to capture "Boko Haram suspects" in Southern Nigeria.

Secondly, the rank and file of the Nigerian Army is largely from the North and Muslim. So Jonathan may not really be comfortable with the tools at his disposal. He has made sure that the upper echelons are dominated by Southerners and Christians, the next logical step is likely to be massive recruitment of Southerners and people from the Middle Belt into the Army (25% of this years budget is being allocated to security - he has the funds to do that). When that is done, he will have an Army he is confident in using.

In the interim, he still needs to listen to the Northern elite.

Pro-North publications will not promote BH as a "terrorist organisation". That makes US involvement more, not less likely.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 01:57 PM

Article from the "Stars and Stripes" about BH and US response. Seems to be some confusion as to what to do. John Campbell (who is widely reviled in Nigeria's South and seen as a lackey of powerful Northern politicians), naturally opposes US involvement. The others are not quite sure.

STUTTGART, Germany — A series of high-profile attacks in Nigeria in recent weeks that claimed scores of lives appear to be focused on fueling instability and mistrust between the country’s Christian and Muslim communities, and there is growing concern that the Islamic extremist group Boko Haram could be extending its reach and establishing links with other terrorist groups.

According to Human Rights Watch, more than 253 people were killed in the first three weeks of 2012, including 185 killed in a series of attacks in the northern city of Kano, the nation’s second largest.

“Many of the attacks in the past month have specifically targeted Christians and southern Nigerians living in the north,” Human Rights Watch said.

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But there is growing concern that Boko Haram could be seeking ties with other terrorist groups, making it a potential threat beyond the borders of Nigeria.

A recent United Nations report on development in West Africa warned of “growing concern in the region about possible linkages between Boko Haram and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb,” an al-Qaida affiliated group in north Africa.

The U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee on homeland security also recommended in its own report that the U.S. increase its support for Nigerian counterterrorism efforts.

“It is critical that the U.S. work more closely with Nigerian security forces to develop greater domestic intelligence collection and sharing with the U.S. Intelligence Community,” stated the House report, titled “Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to the U.S. Homeland.” “Military cooperation is vital to a successful counterterrorism strategy.”

However, experts on the region caution that closer alignment of the U.S. with Nigerian security forces — which experts say are in need of major reform and are known for brutality against civilians in the Muslim-dominated north — could shift the focus of a locally oriented extremist group into a jihadist movement that sees the U.S. as its enemy. It also could generate more popular support for Boko Haram among much of Nigeria’s Muslim population, experts caution.

“In so far as the U.S. becomes identified with those security services, you are turning popular sentiment in an anti-American direction,” said John Campbell, a Nigeria expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “[Boko Haram] rhetoric is very far away from al-Qaida rhetoric. While it’s quite a big threat to security in Nigeria, it’s not to the United States.”

http://www.stripes.com/news/us-weighs-response-as-extremist-group-expands-reach-across-nigeria-1.167077

I think this argument is quite academic. There is a government in Abuja, and specific demands are likely to be made by that government - these demands will depend on how that government perceives the evolving threats. The USG will either accept or reject these demands.

It is unlikely that the Nigerian Army will change its modus operandi and the Nigerian Army does not meekly accept all the orders sent to it by its civilian overlords (not quite the Pakistan Military but not US mil-civilian relationship either). It might seek the services of other military services that play the brutal crackdown game.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 02:17 PM

Sokoto is in the North-West. It is a very significant Muslim city - the seat of the Sokoto caliphate. The Sultan of Sokoto is seen as the leader of the Muslim community in Nigeria.

MAIDUGURI – ABUL-Qaqa, the spokesman of the Jama’atu Ahlis Sunnati Lidda’awati Wal Jihad, also known as Boko Haram, yesterday, alleged that security agents have arrested “many” of its members in Sokoto and called for their immediate release.

He however, urged senior citizens in Sokoto and other neighbouring states to intervene in order to avert the replication of what he described as “the big attack in Kano State.”

Qaqa, who spoke to journalists on phone yesterday said: “This is an open letter to the emir of Sokoto (Sultan of Sokoto) Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar 111, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal and the Acting Governor of Sokoto State.

“Before we visited Kano, we wrote open letter to senior citizens there on the imperative of releasing our members but nobody cares to talk. Indeed, we sent three warnings to Kano before we strike,” Qaqa said.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/01/well-attack-sokoto-boko-haram-warns-sultan-tambuwal-others/

Stan

01-29-2012, 02:33 PM

I think this argument is quite academic.

Since we're both still learning, a few observations on the S&S. They do not enjoy freedom of the press and they also tend to stand that thin gray line leaving you with no opinion.

They are not a source of information - more like a disinformation campaign.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 02:56 PM

Look at this article:http://leadership.ng/nga/articles/14698/2012/01/29/boko_haram_threatens_seat_caliphate.html

The terrorist group named Boko Haram has threatened attacks on Sokoto State if some of its members arrested there are not immediately released by the security agencies.

The Islamic group called on the Sultan of Sokoto and the speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, to intervene or risk throwing the state into a tragedy similar to that of Kano.

Penultimate Friday, the sect bombed many police stations, offices of the State Security Service and Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) in Kano. leaving over 200 innocent people dead.

The terrorists claimed that the authorities in Kano State failed to heed their warning.

The spokesman of the sect, Abul Qaqa, warned neighbouring states to also mediate with a view to averting a replication of what he described as “the big attack in Kano State”.

In a telephone interview with some journalists in Abuja, he said: “This is an open letter to the Emir of Sokoto (Sultan of Sokoto) Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal, and the acting governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Lawali Zayana.

“Before we visited Kano, we wrote an open letter to senior citizens there on the imperative of releasing our members, but nobody cared. Indeed, we sent three warnings to Kano before we struck.

“What happened in Kano will be inevitable in Sokoto unless you (Sultan and others) intervene and ensure the immediate and unconditional release of our members who were specifically arrested in the city of Sokoto on Thursday.”

He faulted the call for dialogue by President Goodluck Jonathan. “There is gross inconsistency in all the proclamations of the Nigerian leader. Our members are being trailed and killed on one hand, and, on the other hand, some people are telling us to surrender our arms and come out. This is impossible,” he said.

I don't think the word "terrorist" is of much significance here. Nigerians understand what these people are up to and as they become more prominent that word will be more widely used.

In the heat of the Niger Delta crisis, there was an argument as to whether the word terrorist or militant was more appropriate. Many argued that since their demands were legitimate that militant was most appropriate. On the other hand, BH hadn't done anything spectacular until it attacked the Police HQ at Abuja last year.

An organisation that has gone out of its way to adopt the modus operandi of AQ is clearly terrorist.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 03:22 PM

This statement comes from the most respected Christian leader in Nigeria:http://leadership.ng/nga/articles/14728/2012/01/29/we_will_defend_ourselves_churches_homes_%E2%80%93_ pastor_adeboye.html

Anyone who understands Nigeria appreciates the significance of this statement.

At last, the highly respected Pastor Enoch Adejare Adeboye has broken his silence over the incessant attack on Christians, their homes and places of worship by the Boko Haram, an Islamic sect in the North Eastern part of the country.

Several homes and churches had been burnt and Christians have been killed in their hundreds by the sect and the most unforgettable one was the attack on the worshippers at a Roman Catholic Church in Mandalla, Niger state where no fewer than 48 lives have been confirmed dead.

The Cleric, who is the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) has read a Riot Act to the sect warning its members to stop attacking Christians, their homes and churches or face the consequences. “We are not allowed to burn mosques or kill people of other religious beliefs but d Bible says we are allowed to Defend ourselves, churches, homes. ‘Be gentle as a dove but Wise as a Serpent’", Adeboye posted on his Face Book wall yesterday.

This position tallies with the resolve of the Christian leaders in the North who met recently in Abuja where they vowed never to attack anyone but tasked their members to defend themselves, their homes and the churches against any further attack.

At the meeting a fire-spitting cleric (name withheld) whose church is located in Area One, Abuja was asked to teach on the position of the Bible on religious intolerance.

The Pastor, according to an eye witness, took his audience from the Old Testament to the New where he cited how Christians were able to defend themselves against any unprovoked attack.

“We need to remind these murderers that Jesus, our Lord and Saviour, is both the Lamb of God who took away our sins and the Lion of the tribe of Judah. He is the Lamb to us but Lion against our foes. And more importantly, the roaring of a lion is purposely for the territorial protection. We used to run before but henceforth we run no more,” the Pastor decleared.

One of the things holding Nigerian together right now is the remarkable restraint of the Christian community in spite of extreme provocation. We sometimes take it for granted, but unlike the Copts of Egypt, Nigerian Christians are not a minority.

And they are unlikely to behave like one when pushed to the wall. This thing is getting extremely serious.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 06:51 PM

Stan

01-29-2012, 07:41 PM

On an unrelated note. The Nigerian police aren't paid very well and they aren't pay very regularly either. So the possibility of BH bribing policemen to obtain critical intelligence information shouldn't be discounted.

Problems like BH cannot be solved without a major reform of the Nigerian police.

Completely agree with you - even here the government tried to reform a basically corrupt police department without recognizing why people take bribes in the first place. How something so obvious is overlooked even in the West.

Dayuhan

01-29-2012, 10:23 PM

I think this argument is quite academic. There is a government in Abuja, and specific demands are likely to be made by that government - these demands will depend on how that government perceives the evolving threats. The USG will either accept or reject these demands.

Most governments that want sometheing from the US issue requests, not demands. What's offered - if anything - may not be the same as what's requested. That would depend on the US perception of its own interests and what, if anything, they believe the US can or should do to advance those interests. Domestic politics play a central role: American involvement in Africa does not generally play well to the populace, especially in today's broadly anti-interventionist environment.

The "terrorist" designation is I think being blown up into something a bit more important than it is. Certainly BH is arguably a "terrorist" group. Whether it's an international terror group threatening other nations is more debatable. In any event a US "terrorist" designation is not necessarily a prelude to military involvement. Often the label is applied as a way of cutting off funding (probably not an issue in the case of BH, which probably gets few private donations from the US).

I do not expect to see significant US involvement, and I wouldn't want to see significant US involvement: I doubt that it would make things better and it could easily make things worse.

KingJaja

01-29-2012, 11:04 PM

Certainly BH is arguably a "terrorist" group. Whether it's an international terror group threatening other nations is more debatable. In any event a US "terrorist" designation is not necessarily a prelude to military involvement. Often the label is applied as a way of cutting off funding (probably not an issue in the case of BH, which probably gets few private donations from the US).

Boko Haram is a terrorist group. Attacks against Westerners is not what qualifies a group of people as being terrorists.

Their modus operandi - Church bombings, attacking police stations, mass terror attacks clearly identifies them as terrorists.

There is nothing to argue about.

I accept your point, the argument over the use of the T word is academic.

Stan

01-30-2012, 02:10 PM

Boko Haram is a terrorist group. Attacks against Westerners is not what qualifies a group of people as being terrorists.

Their modus operandi - Church bombings, attacking police stations, mass terror attacks clearly identifies them as terrorists.

There is nothing to argue about.

I accept your point, the argument over the use of the T word is academic.

I'm not sure if you're directing this at me because the quoted text is from Dayuhan's post.

I'm not having an argument with you and our discourse is quite normal for most forums. We are entitled to have our own opinions and generally we attack the subjects well herein. We are a very diverse crowd with a wealth of knowledge to go with our opinions - so it's not strange that you and I disagree on things.

Sitting where you are I would probably have the same view on BH and their activities. Terrorist do a lot more than the MO you provided above and it is never clear just what activities end up as a rationale for the West to declare them a terrorist group. My thoughts on the Nigerian press and UN dancing around the T word has me thinking they are not convinced either. If the Western press is not giving you folks adequate coverage and your press is skiddish I'm not so sure BH will ever be openly called a terrorist group.

I will refrain from discussing my point of view should we go into the definition of terrorism again. :eek:

Chowing

01-30-2012, 03:26 PM

These references to "our sources" and "one source" are suspect and devalue the conclusions, I'd think. Is it not possible that these sources - and possibly those who publish their comments - have vested interests in promoting certain points of view? Not that any of what they suggest is impossible, but I'd hesitate to grant unquestioning belief to items so poorly sourced and supported.

I would not see them as suspect at all. The top new networks CNN or printed news outlet NY Times often cannot give the name of their sources due to security issues. There is indeed security issues in Nigeria, wouldn't you think?

Sahara Reports is reputable.

Chowing

01-30-2012, 03:36 PM

Chowing,

The intent will not be for Christians to attack Muslims, but to increase the consequences of attacking Christians.

One of the outcomes of the 1991 riots in Kano (in response to a Christian crusade in that city) was that Christians bought guns and barricaded themselves in the Sabon-Gari area of Kano. The levels of violence against Christians in Kano was reduced.

I understand and agree that most Christians would not attack, however I also know that a lot of the use of Muslim and Christian terms in the press is not really a clear picture of who the people are, as we have discussed here in the past. A lot of this division is not along religious lines but ethnic lines. Not all "Christians" and "Muslims" are equal. There are a vast number of nominals whose loyalty is more to their ethnic group than religion. It is from this base of nominal Christians that reprisals will most likely occur. The fact still remains, do they know where and who to attack or will they just attack Muslim institutions? I fear that would be the case, and thus hasten a civil war. Also, I doubt that the "Christians" have the explosives and ammo readily available nor do they at present have the same level of expertise as BH.

KingJaja

01-30-2012, 05:02 PM

I understand and agree that most Christians would not attack, however I also know that a lot of the use of Muslim and Christian terms in the press is not really a clear picture of who the people are, as we have discussed here in the past. A lot of this division is not along religious lines but ethnic lines. Not all "Christians" and "Muslims" are equal. There are a vast number of nominals whose loyalty is more to their ethnic group than religion. It is from this base of nominal Christians that reprisals will most likely occur. The fact still remains, do they know where and who to attack or will they just attack Muslim institutions? I fear that would be the case, and thus hasten a civil war. Also, I doubt that the "Christians" have the explosives and ammo readily available nor do they at present have the same level of expertise as BH.

As to whether they have explosives and ammo readily available, that would depend on the resources of their backers, what section of the political elite decides to get involved and finally, how much support Christian Military personnel are prepared to provide.

KingJaja

01-30-2012, 05:04 PM

I would not see them as suspect at all. The top new networks CNN or printed news outlet NY Times often cannot give the name of their sources due to security issues. There is indeed security issues in Nigeria, wouldn't you think?

Sahara Reports is reputable.

I disagree, Sahara Reporters started off well but has earned a reputation for sensationalism. They tend not to check their facts before publishing.

In addition, they aren't actually on the ground, they are based in NY.

Chowing

01-30-2012, 10:55 PM

I disagree, Sahara Reporters started off well but has earned a reputation for sensationalism. They tend not to check their facts before publishing.

In addition, they aren't actually on the ground, they are based in NY.

I had not seen much sensationalism, but I will take your evaluation into consideration. I do realize they are not on the ground in Nigeria.

KingJaja

01-31-2012, 04:30 PM

See below:

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (Reuters) - At about 10.40 one morning last August, Mohammed Abul Barra rammed his ash-coloured station wagon into a security gate outside the United Nations headquarters in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, knocking it off its hinges. Barra's 1996 Honda Accord then crashed through the main building's glass doors and slammed against the reception desk.

On security tapes of the incident seen by Reuters, a guard peers into the car, evidently unaware that it is packed with explosives. The grainy footage shows a dozen or so people in the reception edge towards the vehicle. Over 10 seconds pass in confusion before one man seemingly realises what is about to happen. He grabs the person next to him and darts towards the lift. But it's too late. Barra steadies himself, leans forward and the security screens blur into white fuzz.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE80U0BC20120131?sp=true

Stan

01-31-2012, 06:45 PM

We've gone from a fairly simple incident (purportedly the one that started all of this rolling) of a cop stopping members of BH on mopeds because the passengers were not wearing helmets and when they refused to comply several were shot and wounded by police. That was 2009.

As the bombings have grown in frequency in recent months, the Nigerian government and Western security officials have begun to grapple with the exact nature of the threat. Is Boko Haram just the latest in a long list of violent spasms in Nigeria, or is it the next battalion of global jihadists, capable of thrusting Africa's most populous nation into civil war?

According to a video on YouTube dated 15 JAN 12, Boko Haram representatives had asked that the government withdraw its troops from Maiduguri, rebuild its destroyed mosques and pay traditional compensation to the families of those killed in the 2009.

Hardly a difficult request seeing how just a moped helmet (or lack thereof) started the whole enchilada :rolleyes:

The answer to that is not simple. There is evidence - some of it detailed in this story for the first time - that elements of Boko Haram have received training from foreign militant groups, including North Africa-based al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM). The August attack was far more sophisticated than anything linked to Boko Haram before.

The simple statement herein is that not a soul has paid the least amount of attention to what the rest of the world learned the hard way - especially in Africa. A simple active vehicle barrier would have stopped a 5-ton truck in its tracks and turned this day into a farce with one dead suicidal man. There is no evidence of sophistication compared to the level of ignorance and stupidity on the part of security elements to ward off the most elementary "drive by" known since the 70s in Ireland.

Global jihad ? Give me a break please :rolleyes:

KingJaja

01-31-2012, 08:30 PM

Stan,

But the Mumbai terrorists could have easily been stopped if Indian Police were better trained.

The key issue isn't what happened in the past, but what is likely to happen in future.

Stan

01-31-2012, 08:56 PM

Stan,

But the Mumbai terrorists could have easily been stopped if Indian Police were better trained.

Jaja,
Interesting example. Following the 2008 attacks and enhanced training throughout the police force, there was nearly a three year gap between attacks (as well as a lot of evidence on foiled attacks such as vehicle borne IEDs discovered and destroyed). I doubt it was easy and did not mean to convey it would be in Nigeria, but we have to start somewhere. Why not with the current trend to employ VBIEDs? BH could have easily placed a 10-ton truck on the outer perimeter of the UN building and caused similar damage, but it would have meant a bunch of civilian casualties and the risk of being spotted. Begs the question lately - are they even concerned over innocent casualties, or, are they more interested in showing the public just how incapable the Nigerian government is ?

The key issue isn't what happened in the past, but what is likely to happen in future.

True to some extent. My technical nit-picking on this article is to also identify what and how things led to a relatively easy attack. Part of preventing more such attacks means studying your opponent and especially the past. The forensics and post blast indicate a totally lackadaisical day at the UN building. The guard could have spent an extra 5 seconds and may have saved lives. I would bet there are vehicle searches now !

KingJaja

02-01-2012, 11:55 AM

More attacks:

ABUJA – IN Continuation of its plan to Islamize Northern Nigeria, the Boko Haram Islamic Sect on Monday night invaded the Nigerian Air Force, NAF, barracks as well as a police station in Maiduguri, Borno State, killing five persons including a soldier, two policemen and two civilians.

Also, two other civilians were reportedly injured, as the sect members bombed the Gambouru/Ngala police station, the Joint Task Force, JTF, check point. The incident was said to have occurred at about 6.30 pm. Gambouru/Ngala is a border town with Chad Republic and 150 kilometres North-East of Maiduguri, the state capital.

To cripple the sect, the Chief of Army Staff, Lt Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika, yesterday, canvassed decisive actions against it, warning that the earlier the government took the bull by the horn and acted decisively, the better for the future of the nation. He anchored the need for decisive steps on the fact that the menace had spread to other parts of West Africa.

Ihejirika’s warning came on a day the Department of State Security Service (SSS) quizzed immediate past Governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau over his alleged involvement in the sponsorship of the sect.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/boko-haram-attacks-air-force-barracks/

KingJaja

02-01-2012, 12:02 PM

Splinter group - sign of ideological rift? government manipulation? psych-ops?

Indications have emerged that an ideological feud within the rank and file of the Boko Haram sect may have led to a breakaway faction. The new outfit calls itself ‘Ansaru.’

In a statement circulated in Kano, Ansaru gave its full name as “Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan,” meaning Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa.

Its motto is “Jihad Fi Sabilillah,” meaning it is fighting and sacrificing for Allah’s cause. The statement was signed by one Abu Usamata Al’Ansari, who claimed to be its leader.

Ansaru expressed displeasure with Boko Haram’s style of operations, which it described as inhuman to the Muslim Ummah. It vowed to restore dignity and sanity to “the lost dignity of Muslims in black Africa” and to bring back the dignity of Islam in Nigeria and the Sokoto Caliphate, founded by Othman Dan Fodio in 1804, which spread across Niger Republic, Cameroon and some other West African countries.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/boko-haram-splinter-group-ansaru-emerges/

KingJaja

02-01-2012, 12:19 PM

Do we have a looming refugee crisis?

The Bauchi State government has disclosed that it is harbouring over one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the state from the crisis-ridden states bordering it.

State Governor Isa Yuguda, who spoke through his Chief Press Secretary, Ishola Micheal Adeyemi, told journalists in Kaduna that many of those affected by either the ethno-religious crisis of the past or the recent onslaught by Boko Haram, have all found a new home in Bauchi State.

He was however quick to say that efforts were geared towards making sure that they (IDPs) were comfortable. This, he said, explains the chunk of fund the state has allocated to security, revealing that five camps had been set up by the state government to cater for them.

“We are doing everything humanly possible to make all of them comfortable, whether they are from the state or not. Once you have lived in Bauchi State for up to five years, you are already an indigene of the state,” he said.

He also posited that following the security challenges in the country, the state government was working with the security agencies to ensure security of life and property.

He also stated that part of the administration’s achievements since assumption of office was the building and equipping of five modern General Hospitals in the state, and added that the government would soon build a 200-bed specialist hospital as the one the state had, had been taken over by the Federal Government.

http://leadership.ng/nga/articles/15012/2012/02/01/over_1_million_refugees_bauchi_%E2%80%93_yuguda.ht ml

Stan

02-01-2012, 03:05 PM

Splinter group - sign of ideological rift? government manipulation? psych-ops?

Based on your description of the Nigerian security services and military, my guess is it is not PSYOPS. A fancy acronym for a rather complicated task which generally does not include killing :rolleyes:

Free interpretation of Islamic law to justify one's actions is certainly nothing new, but in this instance it seems a bit backwards. One thing which will clear up the confusion will be when they start taking out BH members (in BH style).

According to the statement, “For the first time, we are glad to announce to the public the formation of this group that has genuine basis. We will have dispassionate look into everything, to encourage what is good and see to its spread and to discourage evil and try to eliminate it (http://pointblanknews.com/new/exclusive/3574-boko-haram-splits-splinter-group-ansaru-vows-to-eliminate-boko-haram.html).”

KingJaja

02-01-2012, 10:40 PM

KingJaja

02-02-2012, 01:05 PM

What do you guys think of this article?

The collapse of Africa's most populous nation into civil war may hinge on the stability of one unsuspecting middle belt city, argues Jay Radzinski.

Middle East Online

Nigeria's Middle Belt region is where the country's Christian south and Muslim north come to a head. This convergence of religion manifests in the capital Abuja, where the equally represented populations are generally tolerant of one another. In the nearby city of Jos whose societal make up is starkly similar to the capital, religious intolerance is brewing tension to a dangerous boiling point.

Over the last twenty years, Jos has been plagued by sectarian violence which has claimed thousands of lives while displacing many others. In 2010, week-long riots resulted in the death of hundreds of locals and the destruction of churches and mosques alike. This steady campaign of attacks against places of worship has made chances of reconciling these populations a seemingly insurmountable feat. The people of Jos may not yet be cognizant of this fact, but the deteriorating security situation in the rest of Nigeria may have a far more tragic impact in a place with a deeply rooted history of intolerance.

Nigeria's predominantly Muslim north has become increasingly engulfed in a violent campaign by fundamentalist violence. On January 20, Nigeria's second city of Kano was devastated by a wave of bombings by Boko Haram Jihadists against military, police, and government installations, killing upwards of 250 people. Continuous attacks like these, along with a previous Boko Haram warning for all Christians to leave the northern states, have incited nearly 35,000 people to flee southward thus far.

These newly created refugees, who are leaving with such panic and haste that they are not bothering to bring their most valuable of possessions with them, are making way for Jos. Positioned just outside of the Muslim north, Jos provides a convenient safe haven for Christian refugees as they journey towards the friendlier south. As many of those refugees opt to remain in Jos, they threaten to alter the delicate sectarian balance in the city, paving the way for shattering the city's hard-won peace.

Given Jos' recent history of violence, it remains clear that fierce and deadly riots may erupt from even seemingly insignificant altercations. In 2001, the appointment of a Muslim resident as the Local Coordinator to Eradicate Poverty, sparked outrage from the Christian community, which led to mass rioting and destruction. The skyrocketing death toll of those riots forced the local morgue to dig mass graves to compensate for the lack of space. The 2001 riots are a testament that Christians of Nigeria are not akin to sheep being led to the slaughter. Amidst the recent escalation in the country's north, Christian residents have already been stockpiling arms, becoming increasingly disillusioned from the government's willingness and capability to protect them.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50410

Stan

02-02-2012, 03:25 PM

A website published by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt (ground zero in the confrontation between Islam and Christianity). Of poor quality, but shows a video of a beheading.

http://themessengervoice.com/

Not sure what to make of the video and its release although I'm well aware of the Jihad ritual of beheading infidels.

Other than the three pastors beheaded in 2009, is this something BH has been routinely performing ?

KingJaja

02-02-2012, 05:03 PM

Not sure what to make of the video and its release although I'm well aware of the Jihad ritual of beheading infidels.

Other than the three pastors beheaded in 2009, is this something BH has been routinely performing ?

I don't know, my views aren't important. It is what the Christian community in Northern Nigeria thinks that really counts here.

I'm in Lagos, so I don't have a handle on what those people are saying, doing or even planning to do.

KingJaja

02-02-2012, 09:37 PM

You guys might not be familiar with Sanni Abacha, he was a very brutal dictator who held sway in the nineties. His chief security officer Major Hamza Al-Mustapha was recently sentenced to death for the death of Kudirat Abiola.

It is in this context that a present you a picture of what is claimed to be Mustapha's hit squad. (Class pictures from North Korean training).

Surreal? :rolleyes:. We've come a long way in Nigeria.

http://www.tribune.com.ng/images/stories/website_images/abachaforce.jpg

davidbfpo

02-02-2012, 10:12 PM

King Jaja,

That photo alone explains a lot. Those paragons of minimal force were responsible for enhancing the ZNA's performance in the early 1980's Zimbabwe, with the infamous Fifth Brigade and the alleged brutality in COIN in Matabeleland.

Any ideas if Nigeria still uses North Korea training?

KingJaja

02-02-2012, 11:20 PM

I don't know whether any Nigerians are being trained by North Koreans. However, I suspect that similar class pictures with the Chinese have already been taken - and just as some of our guys have been sent to the States for training, others have been sent to China (discreetly) for precisely the same reason.

If you were a Nigerian leader, where would you prefer you guys to go on training and whose methods would you prefer? No one doubts that the Americans can be good at what they do (although mushy "human rights" considerations sometimes get in the way). But the Chinese and North Koreans are experts at putting the fear of God into the hearts of opponents of the state.

North Korean and Chinese methods are also closer to the modus operandi of the Nigerian Army. There is also less fuss and less media attention involved.

PS: Abacha also got the North Koreans to organise "Dear Leader" style calisthenics displays. Unfortunately, he did not last long enough in office to perfect that.

Chowing

02-03-2012, 07:47 PM

A website published by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt (ground zero in the confrontation between Islam and Christianity). Of poor quality, but shows a video of a beheading.

http://themessengervoice.com/

How human beings can do this to each other is beyond me, and reading from a holy book and praying before they do it. Such a video will surely raise the fear and rage of Christians. My guess is that is the very reason it was released. I, too, understand that the Crusades had Christians carrying out such acts as well. Faith stirs passion, yet how far that passion can be misguided boarders on the unfathomable.

It is because of such acts and others like them that we (the human race) must work for peace and understanding.

Chowing

02-03-2012, 07:49 PM

I don't know, my views aren't important. It is what the Christian community in Northern Nigeria thinks that really counts here.

I'm in Lagos, so I don't have a handle on what those people are saying, doing or even planning to do.

In your opinion, or from what you hear and is in Lagos, how wide a viewing has this video had?

davidbfpo

02-03-2012, 08:52 PM

The BBC reports on the violence by the Nigerian state and ends with:
There is a growing fear that security forces do not appear to be differentiating between devout Muslims and those who choose to use violent means to further their political goals. Without addressing those concerns, the government could find its tactics backfire in its quest to rid itself of Boko Haram.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16860954

KingJaja

02-07-2012, 05:37 PM

Happened today. Kaduna (like Jos) is a fault-line city - scene of extreme violence between Muslims and Christians.

(Reuters) - A suspected suicide bomber disguised in military uniform was killed on Tuesday when his car bomb exploded under fire from soldiers outside a military base in the northern Nigerian city of Kaduna, the army said.

It was the latest in a series of attacks on military and other targets to have hit northern regions of Africa's most populous nation in the past months.

"The soldiers repelled the attack and were able to stop what will have been a suicide bombing. However, after firing (at) the suicide bomber who tried to force his way, the bomb exploded and shattered the glasses that adorn the frontage of the headquarters. The suicide bomber was the only casualty," the statement signed by Raphael Isa, director of Nigerian army public relations, said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-nigeria-blast-idUSTRE8161N220120207

Stan

02-07-2012, 08:02 PM

Happened today. Kaduna (like Jos) is a fault-line city - scene of extreme violence between Muslims and Christians.

Although not some quick victory, it seems the Nigerian military are learning or Ansaru are now assisting with information, and that only means the BH will either falter in defeat or up their game.

What David eludes to is a real problem. Will everybody end up looking like Muslims and who determines what is excessive force.

KingJaja

02-07-2012, 11:45 PM

Better tactics / better COIN methods will be used in future, but in the interim, those guys have got to shave their beards! Simple fact.

The Nigerian Army has never been a precision force (not under the British and not now). The Nigerian Army is a very brutal fighting force - and they don't want to change that. To do so, you've got to sack all the drill sergeants at the Army depot and sack the entire faculty at the defense academy.

As I said earlier, there are political consequences. Every day Jonathan survives, the stronger and bolder he becomes. If he survives a year's worth of Boko Haram suicide bombings / drive-by shootings, he'll be in a much stronger position by December and his opponents (read: Northern Muslim elite) will be much weaker.

A Nigerian proverb goes like this: a child does not throw stones at an elder without the backing of another elder. The perception in Nigeria's South and Middle Belt is that the Northern Muslim elite are behind Boko Haram.

Unlike the US, where people unite during a crisis, in Nigeria, crises divide people. BH must be seeking to divide Muslims and Christians, but the Northern elite are in a very difficult position - they can't be seen to be condemning BH openly (fear of life/limb) and they are realistic: the North is an economic basket case.

davidbfpo

02-08-2012, 11:05 AM

A short analysis from an Africa watcher, based in Norway (previously unheard of) and makes a few new points:http://www.opendemocracy.net/morten-b%C3%B8%C3%A5s/nigeria-challenge-of-%E2%80%9Cboko-haram-ii%E2%80%9D

I was particularly struck by this passage:
In this perspective, Boko Haram’s spectacular comeback could be entirely homegrown.

The second argument places Boko Haram in a regional context. It insists that a network must be in place that facilitates the flow of finance, arms and training between Boko Haram, al-Shabaab of Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). This cannot be ruled out, but two critical points need to be addressed.

First, there is little credible evidence that AQIM has managed to move so far south of the Sahara. Second, there are indeed rumours about Boko Haram activists travelling to al-Shabaab camps in Somalia to learn bomb-making and other terrorist tactics, and some may have actually made this long and difficult journey.

But why travel across the continent for this purpose when there are plenty of former combatants in the Niger Delta who are increasingly disillusioned by the amnesty and rehabilitation packages they have received, and consequently may have few scruples about whom they share their expertise with as long as they get paid (even if they may have no appetite for Boko Haram’s ideology)?

The third paragraph I do recall spotting before.

There have several posts here expressing bemusement if not disbelief on the alleged BH-AQ links.

Stan

02-08-2012, 01:39 PM

David,
I tend to agree with the 3rd para as well. There certainly are people in Nigeria with school training on explosives as well as access to fundamental elements, and, in financial dire straights (ideology takes the back seat when one is hungry and the bills aren't paid).

Then there's the less obvious technical side of things that raise far more questions. Excessive use of binary explosives and poor placement to name a few.

KingJaja

02-08-2012, 01:52 PM

David and Stan,

There is a lot of sense in what that Africa watcher wrote, now listen to this African.

1. It takes much more than thuggery to inspire suicide bombing. I've lived in Northern Nigeria and I know the culture there. Religious violence is part of their way of life, suicide bombing isn't.

2. Some one must have been spreading an ideology or theology of suicide bombing. That person certainly isn't a Nigerian.

3. What exactly do links between Boko Haram and AQIM mean? These aren't stable, established organisations with fixed home addresses and public affairs departments. Can you track an itinerant preacher moving in the space between Somalia and Mali?

4. Are these links even important? Who cares?

5. As to whether Niger Delta Militants would sell expertise to Boko Haram - highly unlikely. Firstly, Jonathan is extremely close to the Niger Delta Militants (he comes from that area and he dealt with them directly as Bayelsa State governor). Secondly, there are many other more profitable means of making a quick buck - you could shake down oil companies, do one or two kidnappings, illegally bunker crude or blow one or two pipelines. (In case you weren't paying attention, an AGIP trunk line was recently blown up).

Stan

02-08-2012, 02:25 PM

Hey Jaja,

1. It takes much more than thuggery to inspire suicide bombing. I've lived in Northern Nigeria and I know the culture there. Religious violence is part of their way of life, suicide bombing isn't.

2. Some one must have been spreading an ideology or theology of suicide bombing. That person certainly isn't a Nigerian.

I don't agree with the whole article and I agree that it takes a little more to commit suicide than just being hungry. But, the expertise exists as do the explosives. I can't comment on exactly what lengths the average person is willing to go, nor what lengths the Niger Delta Militants are willing to go. The bomb maker is not necessarily the deliver man. In most cases they are different people. I see the ability and materials to make a bomb, and, apparently there are people willing to deliver the bombs.

3. What exactly do links between Boko Haram and AQIM mean? These aren't stable, established organisations with fixed home addresses and public affairs departments. Can you track an itinerant preacher moving in the space between Somalia and Mali?

4. Are these links even important? Who cares?

Depending on which government we're talking about, yes, links to AQIM are significant. As to who currently cares - just about the entire West :o
I would deeply care as a Nigerian, because the last people I want for neighbors is AQIM.

5. As to whether Niger Delta Militants would sell expertise to Boko Haram - highly unlikely. Firstly, Jonathan is extremely close to the Niger Delta Militants (he comes from that area and he dealt with them directly as Bayelsa State governor). Secondly, there are many other more profitable means of making a quick buck - you could shake down oil companies, do one or two kidnappings, illegally bunker crude or blow one or two pipelines. (In case you weren't paying attention, an AGIP trunk line was recently blown up).

This recent oil line being blown up has more to do with SA prosecuting their leader and accusing the SA President of being a mercenary of President Goodluck Jonathan. I don't recall seeing a ransom request - they just simply blew it up. Correct (this time around) ?

I can't comment on just how much a bomb maker gets in Nigeria, but over here, about $10 grand a pop. Again, they are only selling something, not being paid to commit suicide.

KingJaja

02-08-2012, 06:08 PM

This recent oil line being blown up has more to do with SA prosecuting their leader and accusing the SA President of being a mercenary of President Goodluck Jonathan. I don't recall seeing a ransom request - they just simply blew it up. Correct (this time around) ?

I can't comment on just how much a bomb maker gets in Nigeria, but over here, about $10 grand a pop. Again, they are only selling something, not being paid to commit suicide.

AGIP is an Italian company. If they were really serious about hitting SA, they would have gone for MTN facilities. I look beyond what they say, I consider what they do and what they have done in the past.

MEND simply doesn't blow up pipelines to make a statement, they blow up pipelines to make money. If you blow up a pipeline, the Oil company will be forced to pay you protection money to ensure (a) safe passage as you repair it (b) to make sure you don't blow it up again.

Secondly, when we talk about Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram we are really talking about Ijaw tribesmen and Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri tribesmen. There are several reasons why an Ijaw will NEVER under any circumstance, sell explosives to a Hausa man or in furtherance of what can be considered as Hausa objectives. A lot of bad blood exists between these groups.

It's a bit like saying that the Dinkas in Southern Sudan would sell weapons to Sudanese Arabs.

davidbfpo

02-08-2012, 07:13 PM

KingJaJa,

You stated just:
There are several reasons why an Ijaw will NEVER under any circumstance, sell explosives to a Hausa man or in furtherance of what can be considered as Hausa objectives. A lot of bad blood exists between these groups.

It's a bit like saying that the Dinkas in Southern Sudan would sell weapons to Sudanese Arabs.

Not the perfect parallel, but there is evidence that in Afghanistan non-Pashtu, ex-Northern Alliance were selling weapons to the Taliban down south.

IIRC there was a thread with this, which I cannot readily locate now.

KingJaja

02-08-2012, 10:31 PM

Nigeria isn't Afghanistan and the politics and economics are a lot different.

First of all, the Ijaws and Hausas are opposite culturally and religiously. Hausas are Muslims, Ijaws are not.

Secondly, an Ijaw man is at Aso Rock, Abuja. This Ijaw man is the first Ijaw in Nigeria's history to ever be president. The Ijaws will not have this opportunity for a very long time.

(If you really want to appreciate how the Ijaw feel about Jonathan's presidency - go to the foyer of the Abuja Sheraton. It is their turn to eat).

Thirdly, in case you were not paying attention, the anti-subsidy removal protests in Nigeria failed because the Niger Delta and the South East were solidly behind the president.

Fourthly, the Ijaws operate in a much richer economy than any of the Afghan factions. They have much less pressure to sell weapons for money than non-Pashtu Afghans. And if they are selling weapons to anyone up North it is more likely to be to the non-Hausa Christian population. (They also have the money to buy weapons).

KingJaja

02-09-2012, 11:08 PM

This is sad. But I knew it was coming, all that was needed was a spark, a trigger.

Lagos - Rioting in two southern Nigerian cities Thursday over a police killing forced Muslims to take shelter at barracks over fears they would be targeted in reprisal attacks.

The riots broke out in Onitsha and Asaba after a police officer shot dead a bus driver, police said. Both cities are mainly populated by Igbos, who are overwhelmingly Christian.

Hausas, who are mostly Muslim and often originate from Nigeria's north, took shelter at police and army barracks, though there were conflicting reports over whether any were attacked.

Attacks blamed on Islamist group Boko Haram, some of which have targeted Christians, have sparked fears of reprisals and have led Christian leaders to warn they would defend themselves if the violence continued.

"A police corporal accidentally shot a bus driver dead in Onitsha and this angered the people, who went on the rampage in protests, and the situation caused fear among Hausa residents," Anambra state police spokesperson Emeka Chukwuemeka told AFP.

He confirmed that Hausa residents had fled to police and army barracks, but added that none had been attacked following the protests. Chukwuemeka could not say how many fled, but added that the policeman had been arrested.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Riot-sparks-fear-in-southern-Nigeria-20120209

KingJaja

02-09-2012, 11:56 PM

I learnt that AQIM was previously known as Groupe Salafiste pour la Prdication et le Combat (Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat). Which sounds very similar to Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati Wal-Jihad (People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad) - Boko Haram

What if Boko Haram changes its name to Al Qaeda in Arewa, does that automatically change the dynamics?

On a more serious note, what are the similarities between the evolution of the GIA and then AQIM and Boko Haram? We can agree that these groups started as associations of pious Muslims, they got dissatisfied with the outcome of a political process / politicians, they were both dealt with brutally by security services and then they evolved into full scale Jihad.

Northern Nigeria and the Maghreb have cultural and trade associations that are at least a thousand years old. (Anyone visiting Kano is aware of that). Let us stop the speculation and admit that Nigerian and Algerian Salafists are in communication.

I think the best prediction of where Boko Haram is headed lies in the history of GIA/AQIM. The only complications are that Nigeria has a significant Christian population and that Nigeria is multi-ethnic, everything else seems to tally.

davidbfpo

02-10-2012, 01:59 PM

A few weeks ago there were posts on the escape of a Boko haram bombing suspect from his police escort; now reported by Reuters as being back in custody and one hopes he survives the experience:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/10/us-nigeria-sect-idUSTRE8190OL20120210

Chowing

02-11-2012, 02:54 PM

An article published today in Nigeria's Vanguard is an extensive opinion piece, yet filled with examples. It states very clearly that northern political, commercial and Muslim elites have successfully eliminated or run the opposition out of large areas of the north and radicalized the loyalists. The radicalization has taken place in the many Islamic schools that have popped up in the past decade and the militant rhetoric of the former BH leader Mohammed Yusuf and others.

Many analysts have attributed the disturbances to unemployment rather than religion. An American envoy recently attributed it to the rivalry between the south and north. Yet again, the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi attributed it to the revenue sharing formula. Yet another northern elder, Adamu Ciroma, a Yobe indigene and a former governor of Central Bank of Nigeria blamed bad leadership. Nothing could be more misleading.

It is true that Yobe state had its own share of problems emanating from the Nigerian state, nobody can deny the fact that the various governments of the state allowed religion to steal the peace of the people only for it to turn round to blame poverty and ‘disgruntled elements in the society’. Take for example, as poor as Yobe state is, it boasts of probably the largest Mosques in West Africa (or so it was thought when it was commissioned some few years back).

The mosque which was strategically located along Maiduguri-Potiskum road has Koranic schools and Islamic library all built at government expenses. No similar edifice was built for the Christians even though the state belongs to both Muslims and Christians alike.

But Boko Haram, Emeka Okereke, an Igbo resident of the state responded ‘The state gets its own share of oil allocation as at when due. If they decide to use their own share to promote religion rather than provide essentia, whose fault?”

The painful thing however is that all of us living here are paying the price of the attempt to Arabize the state at all cost.”

Then there are several Koranic schools where people were indoctrinated from childhood. It is on records that that the foot soldiers of Boko Haram were trained in the local Koranic school where the pupils are taught that their primary allegiance goes to Islam and not the state and that they have the duty as Muslims to work towards enthroning the ideal Islamic state in Nigeria during their lifetime.

So when Mohammed Yusuf came with his message of replacing the man made laws with the laws of God, thousands flocked to him in drove as the messiah they had been waiting for.

He lambasted western democracy which Nigeria has adopted as anti-Islam and attributed the spread of corruption and poverty to the system. He advocated the enthronement of the ideal Islamic state as the recipe to the Nigeria problem of poverty and corruption.

Non Muslims who could understand his sermons in Hausa shivered as the preaching were practically inciting Muslims against the non-Muslims in the state. Although Yusuf was regularly invited by the security agencies that put him under watch, nothing came out of it as his disciples always bailed him out. He was the beautiful bride courted by top government officials, judicial officers, politicians and students. He was very popular because he said the things people were trained from childhood to accept as gospel truth. Politicians went to him for counseling and for successes in their endeavors.

Business men went to him for prayers. Students approached him for success in their examinations. In return, they supported his ‘missionary endeavors’. At Kanama in Yobe in the early 200s, his group was called ‘The Talibans’. A popular member of the group then was the son of a former governor of the state.
The above is just the conclusion of the article, it is much longer.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/untold-secret-of-the-survival-of-boko-haram-sect-in-yobe/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

KingJaja

02-12-2012, 12:48 PM

Very interesting read. Read with a pinch of salt.

The Vanguard does have an agenda, it is a Southern paper with bias towards the Igbo ethnic group. To get a balanced view of Nigeria, read:

1. The Daily Trust - voice of the North: http://dailytrust.com.ng/
2. The Punch http://www.punchng.com/ and The Tribune - voice of the South West http://tribune.com.ng/sun/
3. The Sun http://www.sunnewsonline.com/and The Vanguard - voice of the South-East http://www.vanguardngr.com/
4. Thisday www.thisdaylive.com andGuardian http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/ - more balanced, but tend towards a Southern bias.

KingJaja

02-12-2012, 01:20 PM

All said, this is a much better explanation than the tepid and useless "this has nothing to do with religion, it is politics and North-South rivalry" excuses offered by legions of Western diplomats, politicians and academics.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali's article in The Newsweek offers an explanation of this wider trend than anything coming out from the mouths of so-called Western Experts.

Ali wrote about a Global War on Christians in the Muslim World. As a Christian from Nigeria, I sometimes believe that the West is ever to ready to excuse bad behaviour by Muslims against Christians.

And we know the reason - oil. The fact that Saudi Arabia is so critical to the economic future of the West makes the West extremely reluctant to speak the truth to power. Think about it, Women aren't allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia - yet the US apparently doesn't see anything wrong about it.

(Yes, I know a few noises are made from time to time, but the State Department isn't really serious about change in Saudi Arabia).

Remember, the lower part of Africa is rapidly Christianising and the Western habit of excusing away the actions of the worst Islamists (as long as they don't attack Westerners) will not be tolerated for long.

Think about it, there is an immense effort by Western academics to excuse away the implementation of Sharia law in an ostensibly secular nation (Nigeria). This is moral cowardice, especially when we remember that the leading nation in the West (the United States) was set up by those fleeing religious persecution in Europe.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/02/05/ayaan-hirsi-ali-the-global-war-on-christians-in-the-muslim-world.html

Bill Moore

02-12-2012, 06:04 PM

Posted by King Jaja

Ali wrote about a Global War on Christians in the Muslim World. As a Christian from Nigeria, I sometimes believe that the West is ever to ready to excuse bad behaviour by Muslims against Christians.

And we know the reason - oil.

I agree with the first part of your post, but disagree that oil is what drives this behavior. I think the West has a collective sense of guilt from its colonial past where it exploited people around the world. A past that is constantly re-lived in the minds of the politically correct, so much so that they assume any values that the West embraces must be evil and undesirable. It was this same mindset that enabled our academia and their brain numb students to embrace the the so called beauty of communism, while simultaneously the communists were murdering millions of their own people. It is the same mindset that makes many liberals in the West hesitant to criticize Muslims who conduct gross human rights violations against Christians and others, yet they will rapidly attack those in the West who suggest we shouldn't tolerate this behavior by accusing them of being intolerant.

I live in the West and can't make sense of toxic political correct thinking that pollutes our values, but I'm quite certain it has little to do with oil and more to do with a mythology the liberal political correct have created. In its own way it is a religion, and consequently it has the power of religion over those under its spell.

Ken White

02-12-2012, 06:08 PM

I live in the West and can't make sense of toxic political correct thinking that pollutes our values, but I'm quite certain it has little to do with oil and more to do with a mythology the liberal political correct have created. In its own way it is a religion, and consequently it has the power of religion over those under its spell.I agree... :(

tequila

02-12-2012, 07:41 PM

Posted by King Jaja

I agree with the first part of your post, but disagree that oil is what drives this behavior. I think the West has a collective sense of guilt from its colonial past where it exploited people around the world. A past that is constantly re-lived in the minds of the politically correct, so much so that they assume any values that the West embraces must be evil and undesirable. It was this same mindset that enabled our academia and their brain numb students to embrace the the so called beauty of communism, while simultaneously the communists were murdering millions of their own people. It is the same mindset that makes many liberals in the West hesitant to criticize Muslims who conduct gross human rights violations against Christians and others, yet they will rapidly attack those in the West who suggest we shouldn't tolerate this behavior by accusing them of being intolerant.

I live in the West and can't make sense of toxic political correct thinking that pollutes our values, but I'm quite certain it has little to do with oil and more to do with a mythology the liberal political correct have created. In its own way it is a religion, and consequently it has the power of religion over those under its spell.

The remarkable power of this liberal guilt and forbearance towards Islam somehow did not prevent the U.S. from attacking several Muslim countries and killing thousands of Muslims in the past ten years or so. Perhaps it is this liberal guilt that only allows Pres. Obama to fire Hellfire missiles into the odd Waziri town rather than levelling it completely with a B-52 strike?

Perhaps American lack of concern for Christians in Islamic countries is because human rights in foreign countries has never been a guiding light of American foreign policy when it clashes with American interests? Jimmy Carter overlooked the Kwangju Massacre in South Korea. President Reagan aided and abetted scores of human rights violators around the world, including gems like Rios Montt and Saddam Hussein, while happily pumping billions into Pakistan while Zia gutted what was left of a secular Pakistan while brutally persecuting Ahmadis, Shia, and Christians. Has any President cared at all about the abuses towards Christians or Tibetans in China?

KingJaja

02-12-2012, 08:51 PM

Perhaps American lack of concern for Christians in Islamic countries is because human rights in foreign countries has never been a guiding light of American foreign policy when it clashes with American interests? Jimmy Carter overlooked the Kwangju Massacre in South Korea. President Reagan aided and abetted scores of human rights violators around the world, including gems like Rios Montt and Saddam Hussein, while happily pumping billions into Pakistan while Zia gutted what was left of a secular Pakistan while brutally persecuting Ahmadis, Shia, and Christians. Has any President cared at all about the abuses towards Christians or Tibetans in China?

The level concern showed for the Tibetans is unparalleled, even if it is largely rhetorical and driven by Hollywood. The Dalai Lama has been deified in the West and a theatre of silly gestures has been built around his travel schedule.

That silliness was extended to the Dalai Lama's non visit to South Africa last year. There is no Christian leader accorded the same respect from starry eyed Hollywood dupes.

We all know that there is a deep gulf between what the US says and what the US does. But isn't it high time the US looks at the national security implications of its actions/inactions.

The fact is that the US has lost the Muslim World (most of it) for at least a generation. It is more beneficial for the US to firm up its relationships with parts of the World with a natural affinity to much of American culture (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, India and East Asia).

In Nigeria, a nation divided between Christians and Muslims, the US is pushing for a consulate in Kano and wants to colaborate with Islamic scholars on the study of ancient Islamic texts. All these initiatives are well-intentioned but bone-headed. Situating a consulate in Kano (not too far from Abuja, anyway) tells the rest of the nation that the Muslim North is worthy of special attention from the US. Colaborating with Islamic scholars on the study of ancient Islamic texts pushes that message even further with the Christian population.

(No plans for a consulate in the Niger Delta).

All said, there is a growing perception among Christians (a rapidly growing segment of the population of the Sahel region) that the Americans, like the British before them, have a soft spot for Muslims and they will bend over backwards to accomodate any and every excuse (no matter how specious), given for Muslim misbehaviour.

For the love of God, please correct that perception.

KingJaja

02-12-2012, 09:00 PM

The remarkable power of this liberal guilt and forbearance towards Islam somehow did not prevent the U.S. from attacking several Muslim countries and killing thousands of Muslims in the past ten years or so. Perhaps it is this liberal guilt that only allows Pres. Obama to fire Hellfire missiles into the odd Waziri town rather than levelling it completely with a B-52 strike?

Iraq, Afghanistan and whatever is going on in Somalia was/is to satisfy your blood lust. America went crazy after 9/11 and needed to kill alot of people to make a point.

On a normal day, even when the political costs are minimal the US is typically reluctant to say a word about Christian persecution, anywhere (Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt).

The British are even worse. They are fully aware of the garbage coming from the mouths of Saudi funded preachers. They not only tolerate them but allow them to thrive. The French on the other hand, are willing to set boundaries.

We think with justification, that the West is full of cowards. It is alright to insult every and any religious figure except Mohammed, why? It can't all be liberal guilt - there are Buddha jokes. It is something deeper, moral cowardice in the face of fatwas and the fear of losing Saudi support and oil.

Prove me wrong.

Ken White

02-12-2012, 09:15 PM

The remarkable power of this liberal guilt and forbearance towards Islam somehow did not prevent the U.S. from attacking several Muslim countries and killing thousands of Muslims in the past ten years or so.,,The US, broadly does not suffer from that guilt over Colonialism, we delude ourselves into believing we are not and never were really a Colonial power... :wry:

The forbearance toward Islam is political correctness to the tenth power and little more. It is observed by the literati but mostly ignored by all us Rednecks -- and the NCA. ;)

Unless it suits, of course. As is true of the rest of your post which is generally correct. That set of attributes is unlikely to change... :cool:

KingJaja

02-12-2012, 11:20 PM

The forbearance toward Islam is political correctness to the tenth power and little more. It is observed by the literati but mostly ignored by all us Rednecks -- and the NCA.

What the rednecks think about Islam is of little importance to me - it has zero impact on US foreign policy. (I've visited freerepublic, I know what they think).

The US State Department is the face of America I see. State is full of people who cannot bend over backwards enough to appease even the most fundamentalist Islamists.

PS: What did the rednecks do to stop the decimation of the Christian population of Iraq. (If I recall, you had more than 100,000 troops there - many of them rednecks).

Dayuhan

02-12-2012, 11:25 PM

All said, there is a growing perception among Christians (a rapidly growing segment of the population of the Sahel region) that the Americans, like the British before them, have a soft spot for Muslims and they will bend over backwards to accomodate any and every excuse (no matter how specious), given for Muslim misbehaviour.

For the love of God, please correct that perception.

Are you suggesting that the US take the side of the Christians?

Typically these situations are not quite the simple victim/aggressor dynamics they are made out to be by the simplistic media. Is it not true that Christian-dominated governments in the south of Nigeria have for decades systematically neglected the Muslim north? Have you not spoken yourself of the illiteracy, the unemployment, the failure to invest in even the most basic infrastructure, even as oil billions are squandered to no effect? Is it not the case that the south is largely reaping what it has sowed? Shall we then support the Christians when they are faced with the consequences of their own government's choices... just because they are Christian?

Of course those who face the consequences aren't the ones who made the decisions, but that's always the case. I do not want the US taking sides in these fights.

Iraq, Afghanistan and whatever is going on in Somalia was/is to satisfy your blood lust. America went crazy after 9/11 and needed to kill alot of people to make a point.

Iraq, yes. Afghanistan to a lesser extent: there were real issues there, and the Taliban got what they had coming. Somalia, I don't see much going on there that involves US action.

What you seem to miss is that the blood lust (and a rather more legitimate desire to eliminate those who attacked us and those who protected them) and the various indulgences shown to Muslims are two sides of the same coin. 9/11 inspired both a desire for revenge and an intense round of "why do they hate us and how can we make them stop" hand-wringing. Being a contradictory lot (like most of the species), Americans are quite capable of acting simultaneously on both impulses. The idea (using the term loosely) seems to be to kill the bad Muslims who attack us and to be very very nice to those who are just angry and haven't attacked us yet. In practice, of course, this devolves into a confusing mass of contradictory statement and action.

On a normal day, even when the political costs are minimal the US is typically reluctant to say a word about Christian persecution, anywhere (Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt).

We've learned (or some of us have) to always question tales of persecution. Sectarian conflict in Indonesia and the southern Philippines is as much about land and migration as about religion, and it's in no way about Muslims persecuting Christians... plenty of blame to share on both sides there.

Is the Nigeria situation just about Muslims persecuting Christians, or is it a Muslim backlash against decades of neglect by southern governments... or a bit of both?

tequila

02-13-2012, 12:49 AM

The level concern showed for the Tibetans is unparalleled, even if it is largely rhetorical and driven by Hollywood. The Dalai Lama has been deified in the West and a theatre of silly gestures has been built around his travel schedule.

That silliness was extended to the Dalai Lama's non visit to South Africa last year. There is no Christian leader accorded the same respect from starry eyed Hollywood dupes.

You seem to be confusing cultural cachet with U.S. government foreign policy.

We think with justification, that the West is full of cowards. It is alright to insult every and any religious figure except Mohammed, why? It can't all be liberal guilt - there are Buddha jokes. It is something deeper, moral cowardice in the face of fatwas and the fear of losing Saudi support and oil.

On the one hand, we are so terrified of Muslims that we dare not offend them - on the other we are so consumed with bloodlust that we don't mind killing tens of thousands of them. These two ideas of what America's attitude toward Islam is appears to be a bit schizophrenic, to say the least.

Ken White

02-13-2012, 01:16 AM

What the rednecks think about Islam is of little importance to me - it has zero impact on US foreign policy. (I've visited freerepublic, I know what they think).Do not confuse the squirrels at Free Republic with ordinary voters. Bad mistake, that...
The US State Department is the face of America I see. State is full of people who cannot bend over backwards enough to appease even the most fundamentalist Islamists.The US State Department, indeed the entire US Foreign Policy establishment which encompasses far more people, is comprised of those literati I mentioned. It should come as no surprise they are politically correct. You may also be aware that, unfortunately, those Literati and that establishment share your view of Redneck thoughts -- which was the point I was making with the statemtent and which you obviously missed. :wry:.
PS: What did the rednecks do to stop the decimation of the Christian population of Iraq. (If I recall, you had more than 100,000 troops there - many of them rednecks).Very Little. Most of them were in the Armed Forces of the US which frown on their people taking independent action. Said Forces did little to nothing because they were totally unprepared for sectarian violence and there was no policy on what to do. Thus if you want to blame the US for its failures in Iraq, go ahead but do realize that blaming individuals or groups of military people is sort of silly as they are not allowed to act on their consciences -- if they have one; some do, some don't. :D

You might also note that the Christians in Iraq were not the only persons or sect there the US did not protect. ;)

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 08:47 AM

Are you suggesting that the US take the side of the Christians?

Typically these situations are not quite the simple victim/aggressor dynamics they are made out to be by the simplistic media. Is it not true that Christian-dominated governments in the south of Nigeria have for decades systematically neglected the Muslim north? Have you not spoken yourself of the illiteracy, the unemployment, the failure to invest in even the most basic infrastructure, even as oil billions are squandered to no effect? Is it not the case that the south is largely reaping what it has sowed? Shall we then support the Christians when they are faced with the consequences of their own government's choices... just because they are Christian?

Of course those who face the consequences aren't the ones who made the decisions, but that's always the case. I do not want the US taking sides in these fights.

I probably didn't fill you in on all the details of Nigeria's history. I am sorry.

Below is a list of all Nigerian Heads of Government / Heads of State from 1960 to present.

1. Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (Northerner) 1960-66
2. General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi (Southerner) 1966. (In power for a few months was killed in the coup that triggered the Civil War).
3. General Yakubu Gowon (Northerner) 1966 - 75
4. General Murtala Mohammed (Northerner) 1975 - 76
5. General Olusegun Obasanjo (Southerner) 1976 - 79
6. Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Shagari (Northerner) 1979 - 83
7. General Muhammadu Buhari (Northerner) 1983 - 85
8. General Ibrahim Babangida (Northerner) 1985 - 93
9. General Sanni Abacha (Northerner) 1993 - 98
10. General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Northerner) 1998 - 99
11. Olusegun Obasanjo (Southerner) 1999- 2007
12. Alhaji Umaru Yar'adua (Northerner) 2007 - 2010
13. Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (Southerner) 2010 to present.

From the list it is clear that Nigeria has been ruled by Muslim dominated governments for most of its independence. Christians have been in charge of Nigeria for barely a decade.

I know that Western Media (with its penchant for laziness) repeats the line that Christian-dominated governments have systematically neglected the Muslim North. It is more accurate to say that Muslim-dominated governments have systematically neglected both the Muslim North and the Christian South. The only thing is that Southerners (both Christian and Muslim) are better at adapting to bad governance and more enterprising than Northerners.

Let me give you an example. In my hometown, we have electricity only because we contributed money to buy the required transformers, switch gear, wires and electricity poles to hook up to the national grid. An observer would notice better access to the national grid in Nigeria's South and come to the conclusion that the South is more favoured by the government, it is not true - many towns and villages in Nigeria's South have the basic neccessities of modern life because of communal effort.

Nigeria's North has never had a problem of access to government or funding relative to the rest of nation. It has a problem of leadership and misplaced priorities.

Kano State in Nigeria's North passed a budget of 210 billion naira this year, which is well above a billion dollars (colossal by African standards). This figure is more than twice the total amount of US military and development assistance to Nigeria, yet all the states in Nigeria's far North send less students to universities than a single state in Nigeria's South.

Before you suggest that quantum of funding is a recent development, I will tell you up front that Kano and other Northern states have always been better funded than most states in the South. (This goes way back to the early seventies).

Where does the money go?

I have a love for figures and facts (I once worked at KPMG). I came accross the details of the Kano State budget for 2004/05 and was shocked to discover that Kano State spends almost ten times as much on Hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia as it does on Higher Education! These figures are readily available if you have access to Kano State records.

Take a trip to Maiduguri (the epicenter of Boko Haram) and observe the huge, beautiful Mosque built with government money. I challenge you to point to any state in Nigeria's South were government has so misplaced its priorities as to take construction of Churches more seriously than education of children. (This is not to say that Southern governors are not incompetent, but Northern governors take the cake).

It is too politically correct to talk about cultural and religious practices - so they are glossed over, but they have a huge impact on child nutrition, welfare and social development.

I spent almost a year as a consultant on a restructuring project in North Eastern Nigeria (this was 2002/03 before Boko Haram became a household name). We were assigned a cook and I got talking with him, his salary was very low yet he had 2 wives and 8 children. He was offered a voluntary release package of around $6,000 and he was open to the idea of marrying another wife.

Polygamy is rife in Northern Nigeria and that it is why it is extremely difficult to break the vicious cycle of poverty. In general, Christians from Northern Nigeria are better educated and more able to escape this vicious trap because they are less likely to have polygamous households.

Take a trip to Kano and observe ba sukan shiga (do not enter) written on the walls of some compounds. This is the surest sign that women are in purdah. The practice of not allowing the woman to leave the house and severely restricting the rights of women is more responsible for the abysymally low levels of female literacy in Nigeria's Muslim North (as low as 5%) than any perceived lack of funding.

Take a trip to Kano and observe millions of feral children (almajiris). No other culture in Nigeria (both Muslim and Christian) treats its children so irresponsibly. No Northern Christian would send his children to an itinerant teacher with the full knowledge that they would be largely sustained by begging.

In summary, the problem of Northern Nigeria is the problem of a proud ancient feudal culture (both the Hausa States and the Kanem-Bornu Empire are a thousand years old) that is still debating whether to join the modern World or set up an alternative Islamic civilisation. The flurry of declarations of Shari'a law in 1999 was merely one side staking its claim. The Northern progressive movement spear-headed by Aminu Kano in defence of the Talakawas (commoners) was attempt to move this feudal culture straight into the modern World. Sadly, Aminu Kano's movement seems to be dead.

Boko Haram is another side staking its claim and its arguments are quite persuasive. Think about it - would an organisation with a moniker "Western education is sacrilege" be popular among Muslims is education obsessed Malaysia? Or even India?

Now you know the facts. The worrying thing is that most Western analysts know these truths but deliberately push the line of a "marginalized North" and a "more prosperous" South without bothering to explain the context. Other misleading terms are "Muslim North and Christian South" - the truth is more complex than that.

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 09:03 AM

On the one hand, we are so terrified of Muslims that we dare not offend them - on the other we are so consumed with bloodlust that we don't mind killing tens of thousands of them. These two ideas of what America's attitude toward Islam is appears to be a bit schizophrenic, to say the least.

Killing ragheads (as Americans are wont to call them) is different from taking a stand against bad Islamic practices. The Saudis are not going to bothered if America kills a million ragheads. They'll be bothered (and raise a stink) if the US/West is percieved to be insulting Islam or Wahabbism. This is why the US treads very softly on these issues - the Chevrons and Halliburtons of this World don't want any problems with the Saudis.

Cast your mind a few years back, an Afghan man converted to Christianity and we had the unfortunate spectacle of a nation under the protection of the American Military (America was formed by those who fled religious persecution in Europe) sentencing the man to death. The same gung-ho self confidence that characterises America was totally lacking in this case and it was the Italians who finally offered him asylum.

Killing ragheads has never been a problem, but taking a stand where it really counts, when it is even in America's interest (a lack of religious freedom in the Islamic World is sure to breed the next generation of terrorists etc) almost never happens.

It is easy to kill, it takes real courage to speak the truth to the religious and cultural powers that lead to terrorism in the first place. America lacks that courage (I am not saying my country has the courage either).

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 10:21 AM

Tequila,

What accounts for US and Britain's loud activism in defense of gay rights in Sub-Saharan Africa and their apparent silence on the same topic in North Africa and the Middle East?

Does it have anything to do with the fact Sub-Saharan Africa is largely Christian and North Africa and the Middle-East is largely Muslim?

You'll tell me that Sub-Saharan African nations depend heavily on the West for aid - but so do Egypt, Yemen and even Pakistan.

Why will Obama stick out his neck for Sub-Saharan African gays but remain silent when gays are executed in Saudi Arabia?

Killing people is neither a sign of strength nor is it a sign of bravery. Both the Nigerian government, the US government and Saddam have killed a lot of Muslims, that doesn't make any of them brave.

The brave speak the truth to power.

The contrast between Obama's activism on gay rights in Sub-Saharan Africa (everyone knows the name of that Ugandan legislator and he so-called evangelical sponsors) and his apparent silence on the treatment of homosexuals in Saudi Arabia (heck even women are not allowed to drive there!) is the best illustration of moral cowardice I've ever seen.

And don't give me that line on US interests, it doesn't wash.

tequila

02-13-2012, 03:18 PM

And don't give me that line on US interests, it doesn't wash.

What doesn't wash about it? That U.S. interests abroad trump "moral courage" or human rights idealism?

Sorry, but that's the entirety of my argument. U.S. foreign policy will, generally speaking, always be about interests first and human rights/ideology second. I'm not sure why this should be otherwise.

What accounts for US and Britain's loud activism in defense of gay rights in Sub-Saharan Africa and their apparent silence on the same topic in North Africa and the Middle East?

Does it have anything to do with the fact Sub-Saharan Africa is largely Christian and North Africa and the Middle-East is largely Muslim?

No, probably not. I'm unaware of any initiative to push gay rights in SSA other than the State Dept. objecting to the recent proposal in Uganda to subject homosexuals to the death penalty. The State Dept. also recently objected to Egyptian attempts to arrest foreign funding of civil society groups. Why did this occur? Probably because there was some action on the part of the Egyptian military to crush civil society groups that required a U.S. response.

Perhaps it is this you are talking about.

U.S. backs Gay Rights Abroad (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/world/united-states-to-use-aid-to-promote-gay-rights-abroad.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print)

In a memorandum issued by President Obama (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per) in Washington and in a speech by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton here, the administration vowed to actively combat efforts by other nations that criminalize homosexual conduct, abuse gay men, lesbians, bisexuals or transgendered people, or ignore abuse against them.

“Some have suggested that gay rights and human rights are separate and distinct,” Mrs. Clinton said at the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, “but in fact they are one and the same.”

Neither Mr. Obama nor Mrs. Clinton specified how to give the initiative teeth.

Caitlin Hayden, the National Security Council’s deputy spokeswoman, said the administration was “not cutting or tying” foreign aid to changes in other nation’s practices.

You'll tell me that Sub-Saharan African nations depend heavily on the West for aid - but so do Egypt, Yemen and even Pakistan.

Why will Obama stick out his neck for Sub-Saharan African gays but remain silent when gays are executed in Saudi Arabia?

If you think the above is "sticking his neck out", I would disagree.

Killing people is neither a sign of strength nor is it a sign of bravery. Both the Nigerian government, the US government and Saddam have killed a lot of Muslims, that doesn't make any of them brave.

Committing your own troops to invade and occupy other countries is, if nothing else, a significant commitment of political capital and national effort. War carries significant risks and guaranteed costs, certainly more than political grandstanding.

Stan

02-13-2012, 03:40 PM

And don't give me that line on US interests, it doesn't wash.

Jaja,
Given your education and intellect, I never thought you would go for the jugular with one of the SWJ's best members. :confused:

This is unbecoming of you.

Ken White

02-13-2012, 03:50 PM

The US political establishment and literati are determinedly and militantly pro Gay and anti religion -- particularly Christian -- but otherwise hew to politically correctness. Thus it's okay to their mind to berate Christians and particularly to berate Christians for picking on Gays. Conversely Muslims must be 'respected' as different, not Christian and can therefor get an unearned pass on many things. :(

It is notable for example that the rather aggressive Feminist movement here in the US is surprisingly and distressingly silent about the oppression of females by Islam... :wry:

You are quite correct that it is cowardice. It is indeed cowardice of a sort but it is not US national or even governmental cowardice. You are, I believe rather incorrect in assuming someone might claim it's due to 'US interests.' As Tequila writes, that will in the end trump many things but on this particular subject as you state it, the issue is not about US interests, it's far more about the small 'l' liberal mantras and flawed 'political correctness'. As Tequila also notes, there's been no sticking out of necks on the topic -- and sending one's Troops off to fight others 11,000 or more miles away for whatever reason is a bit different than just killing some of one's own people because they're annoying...

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 06:05 PM

Jaja,
Given your education and intellect, I never thought you would go for the jugular with one of the SWJ's best members.

This is unbecoming of you.

I apologize to Tequila. I don't ever intend to appear brash.

and sending one's Troops off to fight others 11,000 or more miles away for whatever reason is a bit different than just killing some of one's own people because they're annoying...

The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.

No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans. But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.

No, probably not. I'm unaware of any initiative to push gay rights in SSA other than the State Dept. objecting to the recent proposal in Uganda to subject homosexuals to the death penalty. The State Dept. also recently objected to Egyptian attempts to arrest foreign funding of civil society groups. Why did this occur? Probably because there was some action on the part of the Egyptian military to crush civil society groups that required a U.S. response.

You probably haven't been following the SSA news media. There are many experienced Africa hands in the State Department and they know exactly what the impact of those pronouncements were likely to be.

Shortly before or after that pronouncement was made, Hillary Clinton went on a well publicised trip to SSA. We know it was a cynical ploy to corner the gay vote, but no one should tell me that nobody knew what the impact would be.

This is an example of US State Department's activism on gay rights in SSA.

The State Department Thursday condemned a proposed bill in the Ugandan parliament that could make engaging in homosexual acts a capital offense punishable by death. The bill may be debated Friday by the Ugandan parliament.

"No amendments, no changes, would justify the passage of this odious bill," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters. "Both (President Barack Obama) and (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) publicly said it is inconsistent with universal human rights standards and obligations."

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/world/us.uganda.homosexuality_1_ugandan-parliament-human-rights-anti-homosexuality?_s=PM:WORLD

I challenge you to produce a similarly worded condemnation of the death sentence mandated under Sharia for homosexual activities in Saudi Arabia.

This is what I am talking about.

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 06:23 PM

Please read:

To what will you attribute Boko Haram’s terrorism?-Let me begin by reminding everyone that Boko Haram has a very long history, whether you describe Boko Haram as an army of the discontent, or even as some people grotesquely try to suggest, “revolutionaries,” or you describe them as, legitimately, this time, as marginalised or feeling marginalised.

When I say that the phenomenon has a very long history, I am talking about a movement that relies on religion as a fuel for their operation, as a fuel for mobilisation, as the impetus, an augmentation of any other legitimate or illegitimate grievance that they might have against society. Because of that fuel, that irrational, very combustible fuel of religion of a particular strain, of a particular irredentist strain; because of the nature of that religious adherence, which involves the very lethal dimension of brain-washing from childhood, all a man needs to be told is that this is a religious cause. All they need to be told is that this is an enemy of religion and they are ready to kill. No matter the motivations, no mater the extra-motivations of those who send them out, they need only one motivation: that they are fighting the cause of that religion.

People wonder, sometimes, if they are fighting the cause of religion, why are they also killing fellow religionists? It is very important for us to understand that they have a very narrow view of even their faith. Anyone outside that narrow confine, narrow definition (in this case, we are talking about Islam), is already an infidel, an unbeliever, a hypocrite, an enemy of God (they use all these multifarious descriptions) and therefore is fit for elimination. If they believe that this environment contains any non-believer in their very narrow strain of Islam, that person or that very area is due for sanitation. And if there are those who also believe, who are confined within the very narrow limit of their arbitrary religion, any chance that there are such people, they consider them matyrs, who will be received in the bosom of Allah, with double credits as having been killed accidentally.

What I am saying is not any theorising; it is not any speculation. Examine this particular strain of Islam from Afghanistan, through Iran to Somalia to Mauritania. We are speaking in fact of a deviant arm of Islam, whose first line of enemies, in fact, are those who I call the orthodox Muslims with whom we move, interact, inter-marry, professional colleagues and so on. They don’t consider them true Muslims.

So the seeming paradox is explained in that. And this mind is bred right from infancy. We are talking about the madrasas, we are talking about the almajiris. They have only one line of command: their Mullah. If the Mullah says go, they go; come, they come; kill, they kill; beg, they beg. They don’t believe in leaving their narrow religion, which teaches them that they have to be catered for either by their immediate superior as an authority or by the community or sometimes an extension of that by the town. When they go out to beg, they believe that this mission of begging is divinely ordered and it is the responsibility of the person from whom they are begging to give them alms.

They sit before their Mullah or their Emir or their chief or whatever and memorise the Qu’ran. Their entire circumscription or mental formation is to be able to recite the Qu’ran from the beginning to the end. Outside of that, there is no educational horizon. So, I want us to distinguish very carefully. If you don’t distinguish, if you don’t narrow these things down to the specifics, we are likely to be misunderstood, as people like me have been misunderstood, because I have been against fundamentalism all my life, of any religion, whether it’s Christianity, Orisha worship, Buddhism, Hinduism or whatever. Any kind of extreme in faith that makes you feel that you are divinely authorised to be the executioner of your deity or that there is only one view of the world, or that only one view exists, for me, is pernicious and it is anti-human. That is why I am making this preliminary explanation.

http://saharareporters.com/interview/interview-wole-soyinka-next-phase-boko-haram-terrorism-thenews

tequila

02-13-2012, 06:47 PM

I apologize to Tequila. I don't ever intend to appear brash.

Thank you, but no apology is necessary - I did not take offense. I did not think you were being rude, just unnecessarily dismissive.

The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.

No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans. But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.

What exactly are you looking for the U.S. president to do? To pick a fight with the Saudis over sharia law?

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/world/us.uganda.homosexuality_1_ugandan-parliament-human-rights-anti-homosexuality?_s=PM:WORLD

I challenge you to produce a similarly worded condemnation of the death sentence mandated under Sharia for homosexual activities in Saudi Arabia.

This is what I am talking about.

I mentioned this exact incident in my post.

So why a U.S. condemnation of the Ugandan law and not one for KSA's law?

To reiterate my posts before, two reasons.

1) The Ugandan law was up for passage but not passed yet. It represented a major change in the way the Ugandan state would regulate homosexuality - before it did not mandate the death penalty, afterwards it would. A U.S. statement of disapproval might affect change by encouraging the Ugandans not to pass the law. Thus the possibility of change was there.

2) U.S. interests were not significantly affected either way. Note that there was absolutely no threat of curtailment of U.S. aid or support, and indeed the article I linked previously indicates that there will not be any consideration of such curtailment linked to homosexuality.

So why no such condemnation of Saudi law against homosexuality?

1) With KSA, there was no trigger event like in Uganda where civil rights were being significantly downgraded - they are already at the lowest possible level and have been for decades. Thus a U.S. condemnation would seem both (1) out of the blue and (2) hypocritical given previous U.S. behavior. Also the U.S. has no possibility of affecting KSA behavior towards their own homosexual citizens. In Uganda, there was the possibility of the law not being passed - in KSA, there is absolutely no possibility that the KSA would repeal their anti-homosexuality ban.

2) U.S interests would be affected by picking a human rights fight with the KSA. We are engaged with the KSA on a number of security issues on Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, the GCC. Basically we need Saudi cooperation on a number of issues. We have had no success affecting internal change in KSA because we have almost zero leverage.

What is the point of making demands or picking fights when you cannot affect positive change, but you can signicantly harm cooperation on achieving goals affecting your national interest?

Is this "moral courage"? Maybe. Perhaps it is also an exercise in pointless futility that harms the national interest while also not encouraging human rights. That's not what the President is elected to do, IMO.

Excellent article by Wole Soyinka, BTW. I agree with him that BH's main goal is destabilize the North and to make the entire country ungovernable - they are following the Zawahiri/al-Qaeda in Iraq playbook to a tee, though I am not suggesting that they are anything like as cohesive as AQI.

Ken White

02-13-2012, 07:38 PM

The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.True. Calculated being the operative word. In any event, that the risk of foreign campaigns is taken by anyone, a degree of courage of a type is being shown. My point was and is that such an effort makes this earlier statement from you:
""Killing people is neither a sign of strength nor is it a sign of bravery. Both the Nigerian government, the US government and Saddam have killed a lot of Muslims, that doesn't make any of them brave.""an evasion as well as only a partial truth. How and where are an indicator of a type of courage. Speaking truth to power is an entirely different type...
No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans...Sweeping statement and history proves it wrong in the case of all three nations. More than one US President has challenged each of those nations in the past when it seemed to be necessary.To say that the level of provocation required to trigger standing up to those three is higher than for some others is certainly true but your implication of never is an error. Note also that with respect to North Korea, the prime deterrent to us is what would / could happen to areas of South Korea.
But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.You're entitled to your opinion . In the case of both nations, I disagree. It takes more courage to avoid needless confrontation than it does to act like an offended teenager. While you and I may have no use for Sharia, a large number of Muslims believe it's important and they are as entitled to their opinions and preferences every bit as much as you or I.

In both cases, standing up is easy to suggest as needed or desirable while finding a better, more sensible approach is harder. That remains true unless the provocation is severe and seen as truly and impending threat -- rightly or wrongly, long term threats are discounted. That's a people thing

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 08:52 PM

Excellent article by Wole Soyinka, BTW. I agree with him that BH's main goal is destabilize the North and to make the entire country ungovernable - they are following the Zawahiri/al-Qaeda in Iraq playbook to a tee, though I am not suggesting that they are anything like as cohesive as AQI.

But do they have to be as cohesive as AQI to wreck havoc? At a particular point in time, there was a new militant leader popping up in the Niger Delta - but look at the damage they did.

tequila

02-13-2012, 09:10 PM

But do they have to be as cohesive as AQI to wreck havoc? At a particular point in time, there was a new militant leader popping up in the Niger Delta - but look at the damage they did.

No, not at all. I doubt even some accounts of how unified AQI was - JSOC gets enormous credit for Zarqawi's death, justifiably so, but let's not forget that killing Zarqawi did not end the violence. AQI remained just as active after his death as before.

Both Iraq and Nigeria are fragile states, fighting to retain control of territories which were/are increasingly hostile to the central authority, in the midst of mini civil wars within those territories. Nigeria is nowhere near as violent as Iraq even now, but one wonders if the Nigerian state can hold it together. It is much easier to make a place ungovernable than to govern it.

KingJaja

02-13-2012, 09:35 PM

Both Iraq and Nigeria are fragile states, fighting to retain control of territories which were/are increasingly hostile to the central authority, in the midst of mini civil wars within those territories. Nigeria is nowhere near as violent as Iraq even now, but one wonders if the Nigerian state can hold it together. It is much easier to make a place ungovernable than to govern it.

They are also artificial states created by the British, so united Nigeria at all costs may not even be desirable.

If BH can speed up the dissolution of the Nigerian state and the divorce proceedings can be done peacefully - then a lot of good is possible.

tequila

02-14-2012, 12:28 AM

They are also artificial states created by the British, so united Nigeria at all costs may not even be desirable.

If BH can speed up the dissolution of the Nigerian state and the divorce proceedings can be done peacefully - then a lot of good is possible.

Peaceful divorces are very rare, unfortunately. Nigeria's checkered history is not encouraging. But you know much more about this than I - do you think such an outcome is feasible at all?

Dayuhan

02-14-2012, 02:32 AM

The contrast between Obama's activism on gay rights in Sub-Saharan Africa (everyone knows the name of that Ugandan legislator and he so-called evangelical sponsors) and his apparent silence on the treatment of homosexuals in Saudi Arabia (heck even women are not allowed to drive there!) is the best illustration of moral cowardice I've ever seen.

And don't give me that line on US interests, it doesn't wash.

What doesn't wash about it? That U.S. interests abroad trump "moral courage" or human rights idealism?

Sorry, but that's the entirety of my argument. U.S. foreign policy will, generally speaking, always be about interests first and human rights/ideology second. I'm not sure why this should be otherwise.

There's a key element missing from both sides of this equation: domestic politics. That may not equate to "US Interests" or to "moral idealism", but it's still a major factor in US decisions.

I have to say I don't see any real, meaningful activism on gay rights in SSA, or anywhere. There are some words being thrown around, but they aren't backed by any kind of pressure that amounts to anything.

The gay vote in the US is substantial and organized, and its a key part of the Democratic base. When a situation like the proposed legislation in Uganda comes up it provides an opportunity for the administration to play to that part of the base with no risk at all: even if there was a backlash in Uganda, there are no potential economic or security implications, and since there's only words involved anyway the backlash is not likely to be more than transient.

To put t simply, no vital US interest was involved, but there was a significant political interest for the administration in power, and an opportunity to play to a voting bloc with little or no risk of backlash. That may be moral cowardice or simply a reality of American politics, or a bit of both... doesn't seem a significant issue any way you slice it.

As far as the Nigeria situation goes, I see no role for the US at all, and the less the US says and does about it the happier I'll be. What would anyone gain from a US "terrorist organization" designation? That would block US-based funding to BH, but is there any funding there to block? Beyond that, seems to me all you'd get would be a storm of hysterical talk about imminent AFRICOM involvement. BH would gain some street cred with the AQ types, and the conflict would look more international than it does now. What good would that do Nigeria?

For better or worse, it's a Nigerian problem for Nigerians to deal with. The less the US intrudes, the better.

KingJaja

02-14-2012, 10:52 AM

To put t simply, no vital US interest was involved, but there was a significant political interest for the administration in power, and an opportunity to play to a voting bloc with little or no risk of backlash. That may be moral cowardice or simply a reality of American politics, or a bit of both... doesn't seem a significant issue any way you slice it.

What exactly does the US stand for? This important question is going to be asked a lot more often as the diplomatic space becomes more competitive and a new generation of better educated, better informed young Africans assume positions of authority (hopefully, I intend to be part of that group :wry:).

The US has on the one hand a very activist foreign policy, full of sound and fury. On the other hand, it has no problem doing deals with the worst of the worst of dictators. Simply put, the US over promises but under-delivers.

No one doubts that Americans are a better deal than the Chinese, but with the Chinese you know where you stand. They don't promise to bring Heaven to Earth. They don't insist on being beacons of light. We all know they bribe etc.

In the minds of many Africans, the USG is full of hypocrites, people hate brutes but they hate hypocrites even more.

KingJaja

02-14-2012, 11:20 AM

A little more context on bad governance in Northern Nigeria. (69 billion naira is close to $500 million dollars which is significant by African standards for a state with a population of only 2.3 million)

column

The truth is bitter and to criticize and point out flaws is easy. This easily sums up the reactions to last week's "Legacies & the failed north" and now that the symptoms have been diagnosed and the prognosis is bad, what is the cure for what ails the north?

In a nutshell: long-term focus on using the competitive advantage of the states to drive development for the majority of the people and good, sincere governance. How? Let's take Yobe as a sample of the opportunities -because it is the poorest state in Nigeria (struggling with Jigawa for this award) and the state of origin of Mohammed Yusuf, the acclaimed leader of Boko Haram. Home to 2.3 million people, Yobe was carved out of Borno in 1991 partly to address its underdevelopment and 21 years later...not much has changed.

In 2011, Yobe's budget was N69.26 billion with 54 percent spent on capital expenditure and 39 percent spent on its recurrent expenditure. This seems extremely encouraging until you discover what the Yobe government considers to be capital expenditure. The purchase of Lexus jeeps and other motor vehicles for security surveillance at N650 million and the repair of offices and furniture for offices and lodges at N137 million are all categorised as capital expenditure. This is apart from the N746 million spent on completing and furnishing the new office complex for the secretary to the state government and the head of service and N9.4 million for tree planting around offices. This type of spending is unwise because it does yield any returns on investment for the state.

Instead of furnishing hotels to tempt tourists, this is what Ibrahim Geidam, Governor of Yobe could focus on the following.

Agriculture

Yobe has a competitive advantage in the production of certain food and cash crops including gum Arabic which forms 40 percent of the United States of America's imports. Gum Arabic comes from the acacia tree and is a miracle edible substance which is found in everything from cosmetics to soft drinks, M&M chocolates, paint and even shoe polish. Geidam can increase the investment in planting and harvesting of acacia trees - including partnering with the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Ibadan to fund research in the most resilient and fastest growing species. Acacia trees already have a reputation for fast growth and ability to survive the dry weather, making it ideal for Yobe where the dry season lasts as long as 7 months of the year.

The drive for the increased production of acacia trees will reduce unemployment especially if he gives all graduates who sign up 5 hectares of land with the promise of a C of O after a fixed number of years. The ultimate aim of the increased growth of acacia trees should be to set up factories which will process, package and export gum Arabic -creating more jobs and increasing internally generated revenue.

Instead of jeeps for surveillance, Geidam can invest in tractors and improve the farm level productivity of Yobe along the recommendations of the experts - who we need improved technology and irrigation, quality seedlings and better post harvest management to halt the loss of 20-30 percent of our perishable crops.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202140627.html

Dayuhan

02-14-2012, 11:39 AM

What exactly does the US stand for?

What exactly does any nation stand for? There's never going to be an easy or simple answer to a question like that, and anyone who thinks they've found one is probably missing a great deal and oversimplifying what they see.

It will help when people accept that America is just one more mass of contrary, contradictory folks driven by numerous motives, many of which are inconsistent and in competition with other motives. In this they are much like other people and other nations.

KingJaja

02-14-2012, 02:24 PM

Dayuhan,

What is galling is the gulf between the rhetoric and the practice. We are going to all see the impact of forty years of hypocrisy in the post-Arab Spring Middle East (especially when the Saudi regime falls as it must).

Stan

02-14-2012, 07:00 PM

A Nigerian bomb disposal officer (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17027167) has been killed when an explosive device he was trying to defuse went off, a police spokesperson has said.

A true shame that someone would send a bomb tech out without PPE.
On the up side, they seem to be finding more IEDs before innocent victims are taken.

KingJaja

02-14-2012, 07:39 PM

Stan,

Read about it, the poor guy was ripped to pieces by the bomb. Are you sure he didn't have PPE?

Stan

02-14-2012, 08:01 PM

Stan,

Read about it, the poor guy was ripped to pieces by the bomb. Are you sure he didn't have PPE?

Hey Jaja,
Yeah, that's the way it was reported. One bomb suit for over 50 people of varying sizes/weights (we have 12 suits for every 20 people - all donated). The heavy bomb suits the Nigerian police use would have saved him from twice that explosive force.

They also have in their inventory water cannons (disruptor), which, he could have employed for approximately $1.30 per round (basically an electric firing 12 gauge shotgun shell) and disintegrated the IED from as far as 300 meters without a high order detonation.

We're all victims of too many Hollywood movies, but most of us know the difference.

KingJaja

02-14-2012, 09:10 PM

Most Western commentary about African-Chinese relationships tends to be one dimensional - i.e the Chinese dominate the scene, do very little in the way of technology transfer and only the Chinese and African government officials benefit.

That is patent nonsense.

I am writing from Enugu, in South-Eastern Nigeria. A local businessman teamed up with Chinese technical partners to set up a motor vehicle assembly plant near here. I can assure that there is a lot of technology transfer going on and I can see the buses on the streets. (I even entered one of the buses).

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSR1nAAZVqNNRHx9t3FdJ-sI4T-DZ3Ef1DV0eW56H1Rpid_g7Gafw

The red, air-conditioned bus shown above is assembled in Nigeria.

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQVxJFnkJRN5UcljQwvTSjgYgA_x7fXS VUZxk_6nLZa7mboz1ea6Q

This is a Nigerian clone of a Chinese clone of a Toyota bus.

Not bad for a 13 - 17 seater bus.

(A brand new Toyota Hiace can be got for 13 million naira - $81,250)

The same manufacturer has a plant in Ghana and he is doing business with the Ghanaian government.

Please read this:

IBESE, Nigeria - Chinese company Sinoma has completed a $1 billion cement plant in Nigeria that will provide the country with a new export industry.

The plant, owned by Nigeria-based cement giant Dangote Group, was formally unveiled Thursday evening by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan at Ibese, in southwest Nigeria's Ogun State.

Sinoma signed a $1.6-billion contract and $1.177-billion letter of intent with Dangote Group in February 2008 to build the plant, which will have an annual capacity of 6 million tons and is expected to make cement more available and affordable in Nigeria.

Jonathan said the country was set to be an exporter of cement under the 2002 backward integration policy introduced by former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Jonathan said his administration would continue to encourage the private sector in the development of the nation's economy.

Dangote Group chairman Aliko Dangote said the new plant would generate 7,000 direct jobs and many indirect jobs, noting it was the biggest cement factory in sub-Saharan Africa.

"With the commissioning and full operation of the plant, Nigeria will start exportation of cement to African countries and beyond in a month," he said.

Sinoma senior director Wu Shoufu told Xinhua that local workers had made a great contribution to the company's rapid completion of the project.

More than 2,000 Nigerians had been involved in the building process, he said.

"We are glad that this is happening," he told Xinhua.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-02/10/content_14581028.htm

This is a very big deal, it was all over the news. As usual, the Western media wasn't interested. Nigeria is on the verge of transiting from being a net importer of cement to being a net exporter of cement and it couldn't have happened without the Chinese (their cost profiles are extremely attractive).

When we hear the West complaining about the Chinese in Africa we sometimes think it is a case of jealously/sour grapes.

In conclusion, the Chinese interaction with Africa is not the same one dimensional story from Zambia, Congo and Angola. Please resist the temptation to extrapolate from the experience of miners in Zambia and apply it to the rest of Africa.

Dayuhan

02-15-2012, 12:00 AM

What is galling is the gulf between the rhetoric and the practice. We are going to all see the impact of forty years of hypocrisy in the post-Arab Spring Middle East (especially when the Saudi regime falls as it must).

Hypocrisy is in no way unique to the west:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-01/29/c_131381416.htm

All I see here is the equivalent of a disgruntled divorcee in the first flush of courtship with a new suitor. Of course this one is different, he gives me stuff and talks nice and asks for nothing in return. Of course some years down the line the hypocrisy and the self-interest becomes clear, and sooner or later the disgruntled realize that nobody will ever court them without an agenda, and that if they want someone to look after their own interests thay have to do it themselves.

I don't personally think the Chinese (or the West) are evil, or that Chinese engagement in Africa is a problem for or a threat to the West. I just don't think they're going to prove to be all that different at the end of the day. I don't object to it at all. I don't suppose that either the Chinese or the Africans will get all from it that they think they will, but that's the nature of international relations. I'd say step back and let it run its course, for better or worse; not going to hurt us any way it works out.

I do expect an backlash in East Africa against Chinese ownership of agricultural land and import of agricultural workers... foreign ownership of agricultural land is something that easily emerges as a hot-button issue. Other issues will emerge in other places, perhaps not in all... but that's inevitable no matter who the parties are. We'll see how it plays out.

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 07:00 AM

From Dayuhan
I just don't think they're going to prove to be all that different at the end of the day. I don't object to it at all.

What informs this view? Do you have concrete evidence to back it up or are you merely speculating?

Dayuhan

02-15-2012, 12:50 PM

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 01:13 PM

I don't think it's possible to cite evidence for something that hasn't happened yet. The expectation is based in part on many years of observing the overseas Chinese communities and Chinese projects in Southeast Asia, in part on many years of observing large development projects (even those with the best of intentions) and in part on the basic nature of human and international relations. Surely nobody believes that the Chinese don't intend to take more out than they put in...

Chinese interaction with Africa didn't start yesterday. The Tanzam railway is an example, the Chinese are re-evaluating the railway with a view to upgrading it and making it run profitable.

Ask any Tanzanian about the legacy of the Tanzam railway.

Secondly, the West has a much worse legacy of abandoned projects than the Chinese. The entire landscape of Africa is littered with abandoned "World Bank Assisted" projects.

The Chinese on the other hand, have a much better record of revisiting their abandoned projects like rice projects in Sierra Leone, the Tanzam railway and cotton projects in Mali.

The Chinese experience in Africa is not a mirror image of the South East Asian experience.

We understand that Westerners don't like the Chinese and I still maintain that a lot of Western commentary on Chinese activities in Africa is less informed by facts but a visceral dislike of the Chinese.

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 03:11 PM

Interesting read:

This followed the recent arrest of key members of the sect and appointment of a new police chief in Nigeria.

Nigerian agents appear to have made a major discovery in their investigations into the sources of funding of the Boko Haram Islamic sect. According to the Nigerian Tribune newspaper, the State Security Service (SSS) and its local and international counterparts have now traced the group's sources of funding to some Al-Qaeda-linked organisations in the Middle East.

Recently arrested key figures of the group reportedly told security agents that while the organisation initially relied on donations from members, its links with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, opened it up to more funding from groups in Saudi Arabia and the UK. Nigerian Tribune said sources in Boko Haram confirmed that Al-Muntada Trust Fund, with headquarters in the United Kingdom, had extended some financial assistance to the sect.

Other sources of Boko Haram funding reportedly uncovered in the investigations are the Islamic World Society with headquarters in Saudi Arabia and some prominent local businessmen, including one who donated a bus and loud speakers and an in-law to the sect's founder, Mohamed Yusuf. A businessman from Bauchi State is said to have developed links with Al-Qaeda in Somalia, having received training from Abu Umar Al-Wadud, its leader. The suspected financer later fled to Somalia in 2009 following the onslaught on members by security forces.

Meanwhile, the team investigating the January 15 escape of re-arrested Boko Haram kingpin, Kabir Sokoto, has concluded plans to bring him before detained Commissioner of Police, Zakari Biu, Punch newspaper said. The meeting between the two, a security source told Punch, would enable the investigators to verify Biu's claims on how Sokoto escaped from police custody. Sokoto was re-arrested on February 10, 2012 in Mitum-Biu, Taraba State in the northeastern part of the country. Punch learnt that the ongoing interrogation of Sokoto and the sect's spokesman, Abu Qaqa, was also aimed at unmasking other leaders of the sect and its accomplices in security circles.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202141514.html

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 03:19 PM

Do you guys think these people are funding Boko Haram?

Website - http://www.almuntadatrust.org/

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 03:27 PM

Hey Jaja,
Yeah, that's the way it was reported. One bomb suit for over 50 people of varying sizes/weights (we have 12 suits for every 20 people - all donated). The heavy bomb suits the Nigerian police use would have saved him from twice that explosive force.

They also have in their inventory water cannons (disruptor), which, he could have employed for approximately $1.30 per round (basically an electric firing 12 gauge shotgun shell) and disintegrated the IED from as far as 300 meters without a high order detonation.

We're all victims of too many Hollywood movies, but most of us know the difference.

True, the guy didn't have protective clothing.

http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/408851_380738058607307_302221556458958_1637178_161 9759822_n.jpg

Stan

02-15-2012, 04:59 PM

Hey Jaja,
Great sources ! I wish I could share where and what I have access to, but, not permitted for very good reasons.

What bothers me most is in fact the picture from Thailand. Although in a very expensive Med-Eng bomb suit and helmet ($23 - 25 grand without the air conditioner), the public or press is within 150 meters (just guessing). And, no police tape to cordon off the area. The bomb tech will live, but nobody else :rolleyes:

What's with question #2 at the bottom regarding stolen security budgets ?

Chowing

02-15-2012, 05:10 PM

What exactly does the US stand for? This important question is going to be asked a lot more often as the diplomatic space becomes more competitive and a new generation of better educated, better informed young Africans assume positions of authority (hopefully, I intend to be part of that group :wry:).

The US has on the one hand a very activist foreign policy, full of sound and fury. On the other hand, it has no problem doing deals with the worst of the worst of dictators. Simply put, the US over promises but under-delivers.

No one doubts that Americans are a better deal than the Chinese, but with the Chinese you know where you stand. They don't promise to bring Heaven to Earth. They don't insist on being beacons of light. We all know they bribe etc.

In the minds of many Africans, the USG is full of hypocrites, people hate brutes but they hate hypocrites even more.

I believe that a lot of problem is that there are good intentions, and they speak those good intentions, yet bringing about action on those intentions is not easy matter in the USA. There are so many hoops to jump through before action can be taken.

I agree that there will be a new generation of more educated and internationally savvy African leaders coming on the scene. Yet, cross cultural communication is difficult, and most USA pronouncements are for local (USA) consumption.

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 05:30 PM

What's with question #2 at the bottom regarding stolen security budgets ?

At least 20% of this years budget is devoted to security. With that kind of expenditure, more money should have been devoted to bomb disposal units.

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 05:37 PM

I agree that there will be a new generation of more educated and internationally savvy African leaders coming on the scene. Yet, cross cultural communication is difficult, and most USA pronouncements are for local (USA) consumption.

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.

True, Iraq War discredited Bush and America, but Bush is fondly remembered for his commitment to funding AIDS programmes.

With Obama the rhetoric is always better than the policy. Obama hasn't really brought anything new to the relationship. The visuals are quite compelling, but that's about it.

Africa really needs American help with funding infrastructure and a more Africa-friendly agricultural policy. Since this isn't forthcoming, the Chinese and now the Indians are taking up the slack and rising in prominence.

For example, the Boko Haram crises is many things, but it is a fallout of mass unemployment. It is instructive to note that the coordinating minister for the economy went on a trip to China to seek advice on how to initiate a massive public works scheme..

Ken White

02-15-2012, 06:20 PM

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.As one who spent a lot of time overseas before, during and after the Kennedy era, your perceptions of the amount of nominal respect or liking differ markedly from mine.

King JajJa's comment re: US hypocrisy I first heard in China in 1947 from several non-US persons, not all Chinese and including some supposed 'friends and allies.' Over the years, all around the globe, I have heard the US denounced for all sorts of things, real and imagined. IMO, the absolute low point was during the mid stages of Viet Nam -- the second Bush era didn't come close to that.

With respect to dislike of the US, that Bush 2 era was in fact continuation of the attitudes engendered by the Clinton, Rubin and Summers establishment of economic hegemony around the world and his proclivity for foreign adventurism added to that. Clinton bombed four nations with virtually no provocation or rationale and he sent Troops to three. Bush attacked only two, both with provocation -- Iraq in part due to the failure of his four predecessor's failures to properly respond to attacks and probes emanating from the Middle East for over 20 years.

We do a lot to deserve disapproval in the world, no question. We also do a lot to earn approbation. Most other nations are smaller and suffer from our cultural spread to one extent or another, so it's only natural that many lean toward disapproval of the 600 pound Gorilla. I agree with much of that disapproval -- and our hypocrisy and ambivalence are the reason for that...

Our governmental system is a part of that problem with 2, 4, 6, and 8 year changes of direction but much of it is self inflicted condescending nannyism. The fact that our 'Diplomats' in too many cases ensconce themselves in gilded ghettoes doesn't help and our penchant for supporting those who talk nicely about us is noted by all.

KingJaja

02-15-2012, 07:22 PM

The fact that our 'Diplomats' in too many cases ensconce themselves in gilded ghettoes doesn't help and our penchant for supporting those who talk nicely about us is noted by all.

The US needs to get its diplomats away from their gilded ghettos before it is too late!

Dayuhan

02-16-2012, 01:33 AM

Nigerian agents appear to have made a major discovery in their investigations into the sources of funding of the Boko Haram Islamic sect. According to the Nigerian Tribune newspaper, the State Security Service (SSS) and its local and international counterparts have now traced the group's sources of funding to some Al-Qaeda-linked organisations in the Middle East.

That's not impossible, but claims of AQ funding and links always have to be treated with skepticism. Tere's often a strong incentive to exaggerate AQ connections in an attempt to bring in US aid or involvement... the word "communist" was once a corrupt dictator's key to the US treasury, and some governments try to use the word "terrorist" to achieve the same result.

Not saying AQ connections are impossible or implausible, just that the evidence would have to be examined carefully and confirmed through unconnected sources before decisions are made based on the claims.

Do you guys think these people are funding Boko Haram?

Website - http://www.almuntadatrust.org/

Impossible to say without examining the evidence.

Dayuhan

02-16-2012, 02:08 AM

Chinese interaction with Africa didn't start yesterday. The Tanzam railway is an example, the Chinese are re-evaluating the railway with a view to upgrading it and making it run profitable.

Ask any Tanzanian about the legacy of the Tanzam railway.

The British built railways in India. Colonial (and neocolonial) powers always invest in infrastructure, it's necessary for the effective distribution of their exports and effective access to resources and raw materials.

Secondly, the West has a much worse legacy of abandoned projects than the Chinese. The entire landscape of Africa is littered with abandoned "World Bank Assisted" projects.

The Chinese on the other hand, have a much better record of revisiting their abandoned projects like rice projects in Sierra Leone, the Tanzam railway and cotton projects in Mali.

The Chinese perception of self-interest tends to be more consistent over time than what prevails in western democracies. That doesn't mean self-interest is not in play.

The Chinese experience in Africa is not a mirror image of the South East Asian experience.

Of course, nothing is ever a mirror image. The point remains that everything the Chinese - or Americans, or Europeans, or Indians - do in Africa is intended, in the long term, to benefit them, not Africans.

We understand that Westerners don't like the Chinese and I still maintain that a lot of Western commentary on Chinese activities in Africa is less informed by facts but a visceral dislike of the Chinese.

We also understand that Africans have a powerful, visceral, and largely justified suspicion of and dislike for the western white brigade, and that a project executed by Chinese will get a very different response than the same project would if it were executed by westerners. Can you imagine what the reaction would be if some of the Chinese agricultural projects in east Africa were to be replicated by (gasp) the British?

As I said above, African suspicion of Western motives is justified and should remain... I'd just suggest extending the same suspicion to anybody else who comes knocking on the door with a bundle of flowers and some pretty talk. The motives are the same, and they've little or nothing to do with your interests. That doesn't mean don't do business with them, it means do business with full awareness that the other guy intends to get more from you than he gives. That's not an accusation, it's recognition of reality... not that my advice matters to anyone, anywhere!

With Obama the rhetoric is always better than the policy. Obama hasn't really brought anything new to the relationship. The visuals are quite compelling, but that's about it.

The rhetoric is always better than the policy... not just with Americans, either. Talk is cheap, always has been.

Anyone trying to deal with the Americans and Chinese has to get a handle on a couple of realities. Certainly there are differences: American administrations base decisions on a combination of pandering to political concerns and their perception of the American interests. Both the concerns being pandered to and the perception of self interest change on a regular basis, leading to enormous inconsistency.

The Chinese have no need to pander to political concerns, and can set foreign policy without much concern for how it will play in Chonquing. Assessments of self-interest are much more consistent over time, without the cyclic lurches that characterize democratic politics. That means their policies can be oriented toward the long term and their horizon for return on an investment can be longer than you'd get from Americans. Of course "effective" in their eyes, as in ours, still means getting more out than they put in, they can just spread it over a longer time.

Africa really needs American help with funding infrastructure and a more Africa-friendly agricultural policy. Since this isn't forthcoming, the Chinese and now the Indians are taking up the slack and rising in prominence.

European agricultural policies are more restrictive, and have a greater impact on Africa, than American ones... not that American agricultural policies aren't ridiculous.

Lots of people need American help. Lots of Americans need American help. The US government is not a charitable institution, and if "prominence" is obtained by spreading money around, who needs it? At the end of the day, why should the US want to compete with the Chinese or Indians for that prominence? What's in it for us? Not much that I can see...

For example, the Boko Haram crises is many things, but it is a fallout of mass unemployment. It is instructive to note that the coordinating minister for the economy went on a trip to China to seek advice on how to initiate a massive public works scheme..

To seek advice, or to seek money? If you want money, always best to go to the chap who has some, and the Chinese have the foreign currency reserves. Besides, I doubt you'd find many Americans, public or private, who want to get involved in public works projects in Northern Nigeria.

With respect to dislike of the US, that Bush 2 era was in fact continuation of the attitudes engendered by the Clinton, Rubin and Summers establishment of economic hegemony around the world and his proclivity for foreign adventurism added to that.

I wouldn't say that Clinton, Rubin, and Summers established economic hegemony. It dropped in their lap due to influences far beyond their control, and was very quickly squandered.

The US needs to get its diplomats away from their gilded ghettos before it is too late!

I really don't think it would matter much. Diplomats don't make policy, and even if some of them did get out in the streets and give good advice, it would be ignored up top.

Ken White

02-16-2012, 03:03 AM

I wouldn't say that Clinton, Rubin, and Summers established economic hegemony. It dropped in their lap due to influences far beyond their control, and was very quickly squandered.Valid point, circumstances were favorable and they certainly tried. They almost made it. Ol' OBL may have had some problems but he did recognize the opening thus gained... :rolleyes::
I really don't think it would matter much. Diplomats don't make policy, and even if some of them did get out in the streets and give good advice, it would be ignored up top.Totally true. It also would help little in the short term with changes in public perceptions elsewhere. However, in both cases there would -- or certainly could -- be long term change and benefit, though I recognize that might also be squandered. We squander a lot; old habits are hard to change... :wry:

KingJaja

02-16-2012, 06:17 PM

NB: Most of these names are either Christian or from Southern Nigeria.

What does that tell us?

THE Nigerian Army has named new General Officers Commanding (GOCs) for the 1st division, Kaduna; 3rd division, Jos and 82 division, Enugu in a major redeployment involving 29 generals.

In the redeployment made public on Wednesday, the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 1 Division, Major General Joseph Shoboiki, moved to defence headquarters as Director of Policy (D Pol) while former Director, Training at the Army Headquarters, Major General Garba Ayodele Wahab, becomes the GOC 1 Division.

The statement announcing the redeployments said, “Major General J.O. Nwaogbo is also the new GOC for 3 Division, while Major General Sunday O. Idoko is leaving the 82 Division to become the Chief of Logistics (COLOG) at the Army Headquarters. Major General O.O. Oshinowo of the Special Task Force (STF) Jos is now GOC 82 Division.

“The Commander, Nigerian Army Corps of Artillery (NACA), Major General Emmanuel Etim Bassey has been appointed as the Chief of Administration at Army Headquarters. Major General M.B. Ibrahim, formerly of Defence Headquarters now commands the Special Task Force (STF) Jos.

“In the same vein, Major General A.T. Jibrin and Major General U. Buzugbe have been confirmed as Director of Military Intelligence (DMI) and Military Secretary (Army) respectively. The Director of Army Public Relations, Major General Raphael Ishaku Isa, is now the Provost Marshal of the Nigerian Army while the new Commander of the Nigerian Army Peace Keeping Centre (NAPKC) Jaji, is Major General J.S. Zaruwa. Major General A.S. Agha-Okoro, who until now was at the Department of Army Training and Operations (DATOPS) at the Army Headquarters is now the Director, Legal Services (DLS).

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/36105-new-gocs-emerge-as-army-redeploys-29-generals

Stan

02-16-2012, 08:25 PM

NB: Most of these names are either Christian or from Southern Nigeria.

What does that tell us?

Hey Jaja,
While I see your point herein, I also recall a rather big scandal with 60 to 70 promotions to Brigadier and Major General taking place last year. No offense intended, but this sounds very typical of soldiers within the president's circle being promoted and/or placed into prominent positions regardless of one's qualifications and time in grade. The shuffle also seems very typical when those prominent positions and ranks require housecleaning to preclude one from gaining any authority or status.

Does this sound typical for Nigeria ?

KingJaja

02-17-2012, 09:30 AM

Hey Jaja,
While I see your point herein, I also recall a rather big scandal with 60 to 70 promotions to Brigadier and Major General taking place last year. No offense intended, but this sounds very typical of soldiers within the president's circle being promoted and/or placed into prominent positions regardless of one's qualifications and time in grade. The shuffle also seems very typical when those prominent positions and ranks require housecleaning to preclude one from gaining any authority or status.

Does this sound typical for Nigeria ?

You don't become president and stay there by being stupid (Jonathan has a PhD). You make every effort to ensure that only the officers you are comfortable with are in key positions of authority.

All the divisional heads in Northern Nigeria are either Christian or from the South. The Chief of Army Staff is from the South and is Christian. The President wants to feel as comfortable as possible and forestall the occurrence of a coup.

KingJaja

02-17-2012, 10:07 AM

The bomb:

http://saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/news-page-images-480-wide/page_images/news/2012/The%20devices%20found.jpg

A police anti-bomb unit in Kaduna State this evening in a police barracks successfully detonated a bomb which seemed to have been targeted at children of police officers in the area.

The children at the Kabala Doki Police Barracks, which is also known as Mounted Troop, were already playing with the explosive before it became clear what it was.

The police image maker in Kaduna, Aminu Lawan, confirmed to SaharaReporters that the situation was brought to the attention of security forces and the anti-bomb unit rushed into action.

He said the experts removed the explosive, which is “scientific” in nature, and was enclosed in a polythene bag.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/bomb-targeted-police-children-detonated-kaduna

Please can our explosive experts comment on this device.

An anonymous person at the scene said, “The children were unconsciously playing with the bomb and nothing happened to them”, before it was discovered that the objective was an explosive with a timer on it.

A top State Security Service source also disclosed to SaharaReporters that security personnel also found another bomb in the Barnawa area of the city today.

Dayuhan

02-17-2012, 11:51 AM

You don't become president and stay there by being stupid (Jonathan has a PhD). You make every effort to ensure that only the officers you are comfortable with are in key positions of authority.

All the divisional heads in Northern Nigeria are either Christian or from the South. The Chief of Army Staff is from the South and is Christian. The President wants to feel as comfortable as possible and forestall the occurrence of a coup.

Many Presidents of unsettled countries see their own military forces as the primary threat to their administrations, and try to counteract that threat by promoting officers and organizing forces on the basis of loyalty rather than competence. That works well enough until you actually have to fight somebody, as the late Saddam Hussein, among others, learned the hard way.

KingJaja

02-17-2012, 12:06 PM

Many Presidents of unsettled countries see their own military forces as the primary threat to their administrations, and try to counteract that threat by promoting officers and organizing forces on the basis of loyalty rather than competence. That works well enough until you actually have to fight somebody, as the late Saddam Hussein, among others, learned the hard way.

There is no military force in Africa that can challenge the Nigeria Army on its home territory. (Egypt and South Africa may have better Militaries but they lack expeditionary capabilities).

No Western power is likely to intervene militarily in Nigeria in the foreseeable future. Nigeria is beyond the capacity of the British and French militaries (logistics, boots on the ground, simple financial costs, post-conflict stabilisation operations) , so that leaves us with the US.

So a Nigerian president (and one with a PhD for that matter) will be smart enough to know that a coup or an insurrection is more likely than an invasion and the having loyalists around is a wise course of action.

No one is suggesting that these officers are not competent because they are Christian or from the South. Nigeria has been ruled for most of its independence by Northern generals, so when Obasanjo "depoliticised" the army purging it of officers who had previously held political appointments, many Northerners were affected. The less political and hence more professional army officers tended to be either from the South or Christian, so the president has a lot of names to play around with.

Stan

02-17-2012, 03:32 PM

The bomb:

Please can our explosive experts comment on this device.

An anonymous person at the scene said, “The children were unconsciously playing with the bomb and nothing happened to them”, before it was discovered that the objective was an explosive with a timer on it.

A top State Security Service source also disclosed to SaharaReporters that security personnel also found another bomb in the Barnawa area of the city today.

This is a little difficult to adequately answer your questions due in large part to the following:

The article states that the bomb squad "detonated" the "bomb".
The item pictured is clearly what is known around the world as an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), and to term it simply as a "bomb" is ambiguous to the rest of us that are considered professionals. Secondly, EOD never intentionally detonates an IED. See more below.

From the little I can gather from the pictures and the fact that a timer was used, this was not intended to be "victim operated" so it's clear that the children were not intended to merely "play" with it in order to initiate a detonation. The wiring is carelessly placed and fully exposed making it realistically simple in design.

It's a fairly large container (kilo or more), so we're back to home made explosives with very little blast effect (compared to say composition B or C found in most of the UXO in Nigeria). If you go back a few posts where I indicated how precariously they were cleaning up the UXO in Nigeria, you'll understand better why. This UXO is free to be had, far safer to play with than home made explosives and far more powerful to use in small quantities.

If they indeed detonated the device they have little-to-no forensics in a whole state and they have created more work and danger than anything else. They also have at their disposal FBI representatives and should be taking advantage of their experience and assistance - I assume even free of charge. They should be more diligent providing the rest of the world with immediate data on sites like LEO (law enforcement on line) and the BDC (bomb data center). It is literally taking weeks from the time of the event to appear and even then, they are not requesting assistance. It should be up in hours, or, at least once the forensics are available.

Chowing

02-18-2012, 02:54 PM

As one who spent a lot of time overseas before, during and after the Kennedy era, your perceptions of the amount of nominal respect or liking differ markedly from mine.

King JajJa's comment re: US hypocrisy I first heard in China in 1947 from several non-US persons, not all Chinese and including some supposed 'friends and allies.' Over the years, all around the globe, I have heard the US denounced for all sorts of things, real and imagined. IMO, the absolute low point was during the mid stages of Viet Nam -- the second Bush era didn't come close to that.

I was speaking of Africa and not nearly as far back as 1947. That was a year before I saw the light of day. I respect your experience and understanding from that time in Asia.

With respect to dislike of the US, that Bush 2 era was in fact continuation of the attitudes engendered by the Clinton, Rubin and Summers establishment of economic hegemony around the world and his proclivity for foreign adventurism added to that. Clinton bombed four nations with virtually no provocation or rationale and he sent Troops to three. Bush attacked only two, both with provocation -- Iraq in part due to the failure of his four predecessor's failures to properly respond to attacks and probes emanating from the Middle East for over 20 years.
This is more a political discussion, so I will only say that Bush the bully's rhetoric and actions, from my perspective, accelerated the decline of America's respect around the world, yet I know most of Africa. Yes, I understand Kingjaja's comment about AIDS. His wife did help a lot in that realm.

Bottom line, America's respect in the world is not a goal for which to strive, IMHO. Justice and effective help, in partnership with Africa is a much more honorable goal. I think we would all agree with that. Yet, it is hard to be trusted when you have a tarnished reputation.

Our governmental system is a part of that problem with 2, 4, 6, and 8 year changes of direction but much of it is self inflicted condescending nannyism. The fact that our 'Diplomats' in too many cases ensconce themselves in gilded ghettoes doesn't help and our penchant for supporting those who talk nicely about us is noted by all.
Agreed. And, we peddle this same form of democracy to Africa. Of course, it is up to them to accept or reject it. They have much larger problems than the USA has to deal with, and short terms of office hardly give their leaders an opportunity to do much good.

Chowing

02-18-2012, 02:58 PM

True, the guy didn't have protective clothing.

http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/408851_380738058607307_302221556458958_1637178_161 9759822_n.jpg

I agree with most of what has been said about corruption in the police force in Nigeria, yet who am I to have an opinion on that. Kingjaja has the best, first hand, perspective on it. All that considered, some of the rank and file police, like this one, are taking huge risks everyday for Nigerians, and some, like him have perished.

KingJaja

02-18-2012, 04:19 PM

I agree with most of what has been said about corruption in the police force in Nigeria, yet who am I to have an opinion on that. Kingjaja has the best, first hand, perspective on it. All that considered, some of the rank and file police, like this one, are taking huge risks everyday for Nigerians, and some, like him have perished.

The only good that could possibly come from the Boko Haram crisis is the restructuring of the Nigerian Police Force. It is an institution in terminal decline.

Only a few days ago, the police chief ordered his men to dismantle road blocks. The road blocks are still there, so discipline is lacking.

Dayuhan

02-19-2012, 01:00 AM

Justice and effective help, in partnership with Africa is a much more honorable goal. I think we would all agree with that.

I'm not sure I do agree with it. Easy to say and sounds good, but there are going to be some gaps in the practicality of execution.

How do you propose that America go about bringing "justice" to Africa? Shall we wear a cape?

In my admittedly cynical view, when people talk about "help" they tend to mean "send money", and "effective help" is defined by to whom they want the money sent.

Dayuhan

02-19-2012, 01:15 AM

There is no military force in Africa that can challenge the Nigeria Army on its home territory. (Egypt and South Africa may have better Militaries but they lack expeditionary capabilities).

Boko Haram seems set to challenge Nigeria's military on its home territory.

So a Nigerian president (and one with a PhD for that matter) will be smart enough to know that a coup or an insurrection is more likely than an invasion and the having loyalists around is a wise course of action.

Having grown up in a house full of professors, I am not entirely convinced that the PhD is an compelling indicator of practical intelligence.

I would agree that a coup is a real threat... an insurrection, of course, is an external challenge to the military, no less than an invasion.

It is of course true that being Southern doesn't necessarily correlate with incompetence, or with competence, but any time command and promotion are based on ethnicity and perceived loyalty there's potential for backlash, even if that effort is designed to correct previous similar distortions. Those who feel passed over on the basis of ethnicity or perceived loyalty easily become disgruntled. You promote ethnic/tribal cliques, some defending their privileged position, others reinforcing the perception of exclusion. This inevitably distracts from focus on the mission.

Would you really want a primarily northern Muslim rank and file under a primarily southern Christian command fighting a northern Muslim insurgency?

Question on the Nigerian military... does it have a rather exorbitant number of generals for the size of the force? Many 3rd world militaries do. When coup time comes around it sometimes turns out that a President surrounding himself with loyal generals isn't always an advantage. When push comes to shove the troops may be more likely to follow the officer they know - the captains and majors, including many who are stranded in those ranks due to actual or perceived lack of connections and ethnic advantage - rather than some general they've rarely ever seen. A building full of generals in cushy staff billets doesn't help much if they don't have any troops.

Obviously things can shake out any number of ways, but a President surrounding himself with generals perceived to be loyal and based in his own ethnic/sectarian group would be a real sign of weakness to me.

KingJaja

02-19-2012, 04:39 AM

Jonathan has not done anything different from virtually every Nigerian head of state before him.

General Aguiyi-Ironsi was a Southerner and a head of state in the sixties. He made of mistake of having a northerner as his adc (T.Y. Danjuma) and another northerner as his chief of army staff (Yakubu Gowon). He didn't last six months - his body was dumped somewhere in the bush outside Ibadan.

No head of state is going to ever make that mistake.

There are a lot of Northerners in the Nigerian Army, but they are no where as dominant as they used to be in the past (Obasanjo put paid to that).

Jonathan may be book smart but it takes a certain amount of cunning to survive and thrive in the murky World of Nigerian politics, especially at the highest levels.

KingJaja

02-19-2012, 04:43 AM

Boko Haram seems set to challenge Nigeria's military on its home territory.

Boko Haram is not a Military force

KingJaja

02-19-2012, 04:46 AM

Talked about this a while ago.

In a small stone, tin-roof building in Regassa in the northern Nigerian city of Kaduna, in a room whose walls are decorated with slates inscribed with Koranic verses, Adulai, 15, lies on a mat, feverish with malaria and typhoid. His younger brother, Adamu, tends to him. "He's very sick," says Adamu. Adamu has not eaten since the night before. He says he is hoping for some leftovers from a nearby house, where the family is finishing lunch.
Adulai and Adamu are not orphans, but they might as well be. A year ago, their parents, poor farmers with more children than they can afford, brought them hundreds of miles from Katsina on the edge of the Sahara to Kaduna to study the Koran in a ramshackle Islamic school called a tsangaya. There are just two among millions of boys who have made the same journey in similar situations across the country. Communal rooms in this tsangaya host up to 80 boys at night. Thin, straw mats cover the floor. Filthy bags holding modest belongings are nailed high on the grimy walls. The boys — known as almajiris — are meant to be under the guidance of mallams, or religious teachers. In reality, when the almajiris "break" for the day, they stream out in the scores onto the streets armed with small plastic bowls to begin a long day of begging. "Almajiri is a hausa word meaning 'emigrant,'" explains Dr Khalid Abubakar Aliyu, secretary-general of Jama'atu Nasril Islam, an umbrella Muslim group. "It is someone who is searching for knowledge to make himself a better individual. But it has now become a concept of its own in northern Nigeria, synonymous with begging."
(PHOTOS: Deadly Attacks in Nigeria)
Nigeria's population of 160 million is roughly split between a mostly Muslim north and a largely Christian south. Absolute poverty — defined as people who can only afford the bare essentials of food, shelter and clothing — rose to 60.9% in 2010 from 54.7% in 2004, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That inequality is widening. And the majority of the poorest states lie in the dusty, arid north. Add into that destitution a polygamous society which can produce dozens of children in a single family and parents, with little means to feed them, willingly send their offspring to tsangayas, often hundreds of miles away in neighboring states or even countries.
In cities across northern Nigeria, the scale of the problem is apparent. Young boys swarm around cars stopped in traffic looking for alms or scraps of food. Kids with painful skin diseases and open sores on their heads and hands stare into car windows. Accidents, even fatalities, are common. Dr Suleiman Shinkfi runs a Kaduna-based NGO helping almajiris. "They are children that assume that they don't have anybody," he says. "They feed on the roadsides, they rush for your scraps when you finish eating. Sometimes they fight dogs for food." Naturally, the children are vulnerable to criminality, says Tayo Fatinikun, State Secretary of the Child Protection Network in Sokoto. "They are living where they don't have families. Some are as young as six years of age. It is an impetus to criminal activities." Arinze Orakwe from the National Agency for the Prohibition of People Trafficking adds: "These children are vulnerable to all sorts of social problems — abuse, violence. [They can be] cherry-picked for any vice that adults want to use them for."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107102,00.html#ixzz1mneUKc7H

KingJaja

02-19-2012, 11:32 AM

Seems like Boko Haram again.

LAGOS Feb 19 (Reuters) - An explosion struck the Nigerian town of Suleja, on the edge of the capital Abuja, on Sunday, a security source and a spokesman for the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) said.

"NEMA has alerted other response agencies to an explosion reported in Morocco area of Suleja. Public are strongly advised to desist from getting close to explosion and allow rescue workers access to site," the spokesman said in a text message. He added that the casualty toll was not yet known.

The security source said the blast struck near the Christ Embassy Church, on the main Morocco Road, but officials did not immediately confirm this.

Nigerian officials say Suleja and surrounding Niger state have been infiltrated by militants from the Boko Haram Islamist sect which is waging an insurgency against the Nigerian government, usually concentrated in the largely Muslim far north and northeast.

Since last year, the group has radiated from its northern heartlands and struck in or around the capital a few times.

On Christmas Day, a bomb blast claimed by Boko Haram against a Catholic Church in Madala, just outside Abuja, killed 37 people and wounded 57.

That attack heightened sectarian tensions in the country of 160 million, split roughly evenly between Christians and Muslims.

On Wednesday, gunmen stormed a prison in Kogi state in central Nigeria, killing one warden and freeing 119 prisoners, the prison authorities said.

Although the majority of Boko Haram's attacks occur in its home base in the northeastern city of Maiduguri, its threat has spread. At least 178 people were killed in the sect's most deadly attack last month in Nigeria's largest northern city, Kano. (Reporting by Tim Cocks, Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL5E8DJ05220120219

Stan

02-19-2012, 04:06 PM

Seems like Boko Haram again.

Seems they are still hanging in their comfort zone (traditional area of operations) and avoiding hard targets. With but one slight example to their (self claimed) credit, BH has yet to demonstrate ability to project power outside traditional operational areas.

In this case, even the public are more aware. Do the Nigerian security services have a public awareness program or was this by luck and by God ?

I'm also wondering if the Nigerian govt. has figured out where the commercial explosives are coming from. It was more than a year ago when the FBI concluded that BH had access to commercial grade explosives and basic explosives use. Not something you just read on the internet or from a book, and one can't continue to blow things up without supplies !

KingJaja

02-19-2012, 04:48 PM

Seems they are still hanging in their comfort zone (traditional area of operations) and avoiding hard targets. With but one slight example to their (self claimed) credit, BH has yet to demonstrate ability to project power outside traditional operational areas.

In this case, even the public are more aware. Do the Nigerian security services have a public awareness program or was this by luck and by God ?

I'm also wondering if the Nigerian govt. has figured out where the commercial explosives are coming from. It was more than a year ago when the FBI concluded that BH had access to commercial grade explosives and basic explosives use. Not something you just read on the internet or from a book, and one can't continue to blow things up without supplies !

There is something of a public awareness campaign, but this more likely due to vigilance on the part of Church attendees.

Even if the Nigerian govt. figures out where the explosives are coming from, they are powerless to stop them, really. Nigerians borders are porous and unless the Nigerian security services are reformed the present situation remains.

To live in Africa requires a certain amount of mental toughness, the sort of which Westerners find difficult to comprehend. You know you are on your own and that the government cannot and will not protect you, but you've got to feed your kids and build a life / business.

So life will continue in Nigeria. We are fast approaching the "is this the worst you can do phase" in our relationship with Boko Haram. Bombings will continue, albeit limited to the traditional areas of operations. Expect a Nigerian equivalent of a "sons of Iraq" to arise - Kano is a business town and they don't joke with making money there!

I expect life to continue. The regular bombings in Iraq haven't changed the strategic situation there - Maliki is still in charge and is consolidating his hold on power. The same applies to Jonathan.

KingJaja

02-20-2012, 04:22 PM

I was speaking of Africa and not nearly as far back as 1947. That was a year before I saw the light of day. I respect your experience and understanding from that time in Asia.

Could I be the youngest person posting here? :rolleyes:

KingJaja

02-20-2012, 04:37 PM

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup surveys suggest Nigerians do not embrace the anti-Western rhetoric of Boko Haram, the militant movement behind a series of deadly attacks in the country. About 6 in 10 Nigerians believe greater interaction with the West is more of a benefit than a threat. In Boko Haram's Northeast home base, nearly 7 in 10 say the same. Majorities of residents in other northern regions, which are home to many Muslims, also view such interaction positively.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152780/Northern-Nigerians-Views-Not-Line-Boko-Haram.aspx

A few points.

1. The South East views greater interaction between Muslim and Western Societies as more of a threat than a benefit. What that means is that any attempt by the US to show greater understanding of the Muslim pov will be regarded with extreme suspicion by the South East.

There is a historical basis for this, the general belief was that during the colonial era the British favoured the Muslim North over the Christian South East. This culminated in the Nigerian Civil War - the Northern-led Nigerian Army triumphed over the mainly Christian Biafrans (85% of the weapons of the Nigerian Army were supplied by the British). So the distrust of the British (and by extension the Americans) still lingers in that part of Nigeria.

2. A full third of the population of the North-East is opposed to Sharia being a source of legislation. This should correspond to the Christian population in those areas. The figures in the South range from 64% to 83%. In the Middle Belt, it stands at 57%. So, Sharia is extremely unpopular in many parts of Nigeria.

3. Approval ratings for Nigeria's leadership (Jonathan) are relatively high in the South and Middle Belt but low in the North. So Jonathan may not be as vulnerable as he seems. These views were reinforced by an informal survey I carried out on the streets of Lagos (talking to taxi drivers, market women etc). Southerners seem to be much more forgiving of Jonathan's failings than most people assume.

Stan

02-20-2012, 05:14 PM

Could I be the youngest person posting here? :rolleyes:

You're in the top ten :D And... Our first and only (posting) Nigerian :cool:

Stan

02-21-2012, 10:13 AM

Eight Boko Haram’s suspects killed in Borno (http://guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77748:eight-boko-harams-suspects-killed-in-borno-&catid=1:national&Itemid=559)

A TIMELY intervention by the Joint Task Force (JTF) yesterday prevented suspected Boko Haram gunmen from unleashing large-scale violence on the Baga Market, Maiduguri, Borno State.

But the Boko Haram suspects, who attacked the market around 1.00 p.m., had shot at three traders before officials of the JTF rushed to the market and repelled them.

After fighting off the Boko Haram gunmen, the JTF defused three bombs that were allegedly planted by the group in the market.

KingJaja

02-21-2012, 11:05 AM

Local news says up thirty bodies at morgue. Not sure whether Boko Haram suspects or innocent bystanders.

KingJaja

02-22-2012, 06:12 PM

We get it, terrorists are only terrorists when they attack Americans or directly threaten American interests or when kinetic actions against them can be milked for political purposes.

While violence involving Boko Haram extremists occurs on an almost daily basis in northern Nigeria, a debate is taking place in the United States over whether the radicals should be labeled as a foreign terrorist organization.

The U.S. State Department currently designates 49 extremist groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Only one of those groups comes from sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia's al-Shabab extremists.

Peter Lewis is the director of the African Studies program at The Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He calls Boko Haram a violent insurgency, but says it would be a mistake for the State Department to add it to the list of terror groups. "We are short on facts other than the undisputed fact that Boko Haram has become a deadly insurgency, not just a security problem, or a challenge, but an organized, capable insurgency in northern Nigeria," he said.

Lewis says very little is known about the group's leadership structure or possible external ties. He says much more is understood about the context of poverty, corruption, poor governance and religious rivalries within which Boko Haram operates.

"Boko Haram, while it is a small movement, while it is essentially a sect that has a claim on the loyalties and ideas of only a tiny minority of northern Nigerians, nonetheless taps into a broader sense of resentment, of anger, a sense of marginality and a broader catchment and demographic of alienated, unemployed, poorly educated northern youth," he said.

Lewis says alleged Boko Haram spokespeople may even have ties to the Nigerian government and pretend they have links with regional terrorist groups to attract more attention and outside funding in the effort to stop the insurgency.

One analyst in favor of the terror label is former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, Howard Jeter. He disagreed with Lewis at a recent Washington conference. "It is really a terrorist group. And Peter said let us not designate it [as such]. I would like to hear your explanation as to why. It is a terrorist group. If you kill 28 innocent people worshipping in a church, it is a terrorist group," he said.

Jeter was referring to bombings during Christmas holiday church services last year on the outskirts of the capital, Abuja.

Other Boko Haram attacks have targeted security forces and Muslims. Leaders who have come forward in the media have said they want to impose Islamic Sharia law. The name Boko Haram, which means "Western education is a sin," was initially given by critics of the radicals as a way to make fun of them.

Jean Herskovits, a professor of history at the State University of New York, recently wrote about Boko Haram in an opinion article in The New York Times. Herskovits said that if the United States placed the group on the foreign terror list, it would make more Nigerians fear and distrust America. She also said such a decision could turn the U.S. government into an enemy of many of northern Nigeria's Muslims. Herskovits says pressure is growing from some lawmakers and U.S. government agencies to label Boko Haram as a terrorist group.

John Campbell, from the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, says U.S.-Nigerian ties are extremely important, and that these debates should not be taken lightly. "We face the challenge of developing a policy response to Nigerian developments that reconciles our strategic interests with our abiding goal of promoting democracy and sustainable development in the giant of Africa," he said.

Last year, U.S. lawmakers from the House Committee on Homeland Security also proposed that Boko Haram be added to the list of designated foreign terror groups, but so far officials from the State Department's Africa bureau have disagreed, and the northern Nigerian radicals have remained off the list.

On its website, the State Department says the designation plays a critical role in the U.S. fight against terrorism and is an effective means to curtail support for terrorist activities and for pressuring groups to get out of the terror business.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Terror-Label-for-Boko-Haram-Debated-139892403.html

One thing is for sure, anti-Boko Haram sentiment is rising in Northern Nigeria (especially among the business community). We can assure the USG, that when Nigeria is called upon next to support US strategic interests, the long period of sitting on the fence will not be forgotten.

The internal dynamics/politics of the "terrorist" label does not interest us. We only see a nation sitting on the fence.

Dayuhan

02-22-2012, 09:02 PM

Going back to early posts I see this:

it's our fight, leave us alone to fight it.

Now I see this:

The internal dynamics/politics of the "terrorist" label does not interest us. We only see a nation sitting on the fence.

What changed?

A US "terrorist" designation isn't meant to define who is or isn't a terrorist, it's meant to define which terrorists are of concern to the US.

What would a US "terrorist" designation on BH accomplish, beyond unnecessarily internationalizing a domestic conflict, accelerating expectations of AFRICOM charging over the hill, and giving BH street cred with the AQ crowd? Wouldn't it just be seen as paving the way for that US involvement that you've already said you don't want?

Why exactly would you want a US "terrorist" designation on BH?

KingJaja

02-22-2012, 10:49 PM

Designate it as a terrorist organisation because it is the right thing to do.

Canada joined Britain to fight Germany during the Second World War, not because Canada was directly threatened or because Canada would not suffer losses or because Canada's reputation would suffer in the eyes of Germans. She joined the War effort because it was the right thing to do.

No one is asking the US to commit troops to Nigeria or to fight BH for us. The US should state the bleeding obvious: BH is a terrorist organisation, because it is the right thing to do.

(Since I made that remark, BH has metastasized in to what can be clearly termed as a terrorist organisation.)

Dayuhan

02-22-2012, 11:41 PM

Designate it as a terrorist organisation because it is the right thing to do.

Why is it the right thing to do?

I'll quote myself, easier than typing it again:

A US "terrorist" designation isn't meant to define who is or isn't a terrorist, it's meant to define which terrorists are of concern to the US.

As you said yourself, this is a Nigerian domestic matter and it's not our concern. You see us "on the fence" because - as you said yourself - it's not our fight. The last thing you (and we) want us us getting off the fence, because that just makes a mess.

As far as I can see, the probable consequences of a US terrorist designation on BH are:

- internationalizing a domestic conflict

- accelerating expectations of AFRICOM involvement

- giving BH street cred with the AQ crowd

How is that "the right thing to do"? What positive outcome, if any, would this designation accomplish?

I see no point in the US spilling words in a situation where supporting those words with action is clearly not desirable. Either you're in or you're out, and we need to be out. Words are a first step to a place we don't want to be; best not to start down the path.

Stan

02-23-2012, 08:20 AM

From the Punch this morning: Two shot as robbers raid Ogun banks (http://www.punchng.com/news/two-shot-as-robbers-raid-ogun-banks/)

It was learnt that bandits, arrived at the bank in Ijebu Igbo about 12 noon in a Hummer and Mazda space wagon.

They were said to have operated for about 30 minutes unchallenged before escaping.

Eyewitnesses said the bandits also blew up the bank’s security doors and Automated Teller Machine with a dynamite.

If this isn't BH, then it appears just about anyone can purchase TNT and rob a bank.

KingJaja

02-23-2012, 01:52 PM

Niger Delta Militants were using explosives long before Boko Haram.

Dayuhan

02-23-2012, 10:13 PM

Where I'm at commercial explosives are fairly easy to obtain, due to leakage from the construction and mining industries. Similar there?

KingJaja

02-24-2012, 06:44 PM

Anyone know what's up with the Libyans? Who is in charge? To what extent does Islamism pervade society? What exactly will the effect of the new regime be on Nigeria and the Sahel?

davidbfpo

02-24-2012, 07:57 PM

Anyone know what's up with the Libyans? Who is in charge? To what extent does Islamism pervade society? What exactly will the effect of the new regime be on Nigeria and the Sahel?

There have been articles on the apparent chaos, evaporation of solidarity and power coming from a "technical" and guns. Yet to see one not by non-resident reporters and analysts. No-one is in charge. One reporter commented the new national army is smartly dressed and nothing else. Not so clear on Islamism; but in such conditions religious certainty is ready to give political certainty. Final point; almost nothing and little intention or capability to bother.

All from my "armchair".

Dayuhan

02-24-2012, 10:42 PM

Anyone know what's up with the Libyans? Who is in charge? To what extent does Islamism pervade society? What exactly will the effect of the new regime be on Nigeria and the Sahel?

As David comments, nobody seems to have achieved any clear degree of control. If an Islamist regime emerged and took power, and if they consolidated domestic control to a degree that would permit foreign adventures, they might have some impact on the Sahel... but there's a lot of "if" and "might" in there, and the nations of the Sahel have much more urgent problems close at home in any event.

A more immediate issue would probably be a bunch of new weapons coming onto the black market, but that would be a consequence of profit-seeking, not Islamism.

Stan

02-25-2012, 07:41 AM

Where I'm at commercial explosives are fairly easy to obtain, due to leakage from the construction and mining industries. Similar there?

I assume you're directing this at Jaja, but it is a valid point especially here. In the early 90s there was an explosion a day from organized crime and the majority of the materials were also from construction and mining sites. Today there are barely two explosions a year involving commercial grade TNT.

These tighter controls have forced the criminals to dig for UXO, which, by blowing themselves up, has relieved the justice system of additional burdens.

They need to get pro-active and trace the components - it's not made in Nigeria, so there must be a register following importation and subsequent use.

KingJaja

02-25-2012, 02:10 PM

Stan,

I actually made that comment.

It is doubtful that a nation that cannot even properly regulate the importation of refined petroleum products or regulate issuance of identity documents can regulate importation of explosives.

Nigeria is in sense, a sum of all fears, a combination of weak governance, state failure, poverty, religious fundamentalism, corruption and human rights abuses.

Jonathan has to suddenly deal with the consequences of fifty years of directionless leadership, corruption and ethnic rivalries. This would task even the most competent and visionary leadership anywhere in the World - but Jonathan cannot be said to belong to that category.

Chowing

02-25-2012, 02:34 PM

A very interesting article in today's The Atlantic concerning development, the economy and distribution of wealth in Africa. A very hopeful article and a good read after all of our talk about poverty and hopelessness. This article cleared my lenses.

The poverty mafia once controlled the development debate in Africa. No longer.

The old approach was about how to prevent Africa from getting poorer. All development goals were essentially negative, as experts wallowed in risk-aversion and promoted various doomsday scenarios of an Africa with a rapidly growing population.

The new thinking on development is to share Africa's wealth more equitably. That's right: Africa's wealth.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/africas-amazing-rise-and-what-it-can-teach-the-world/253587/

Stan

02-25-2012, 03:05 PM

A very interesting article in today's The Atlantic concerning development, the economy and distribution of wealth in Africa. A very hopeful article and a good read after all of our talk about poverty and hopelessness. This article cleared my lenses.

I think countries like Rwanda are more the exception than the rule.

But even countries without such natural resources, such as Rwanda, have seen significant gains, mostly because of improved economic governance and the return of money and skills from Africans who left their countries during the dog days. Rwanda, for instance, long an importer of food, now grows enough to satisfying the needs of its people, and even exports cash crops such as coffee for the first time.

If for example the DRC could muster even half that effort combined with their ability to export electricity, they would want for nothing.

. Only strong nation-states, committed to fairness, can manage the new tensions brought on by wealth and insure that the old risk-averse agenda of African development -- obsessing over preventing further slippage into poverty rather than nakedly pursuing legitimate achievable gains -- becomes an artifact of history.

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 07:01 AM

If for example the DRC could muster even half that effort combined with their ability to export electricity, they would want for nothing.

The Western environmental types will be up in arms against hydro power. Sometimes, I thank God for the Chinese - if we didn't have the Chinese, no dams would be built. (They are willing to provide financing and loans for dams).

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 07:04 AM

Interesting article for NY Times. Seems to point to large local (read Hausa) support for Boko Haram. In an ethnically divided nation, this could be interpreted to mean Boko Haram = Hausa by other ethnic groups. This is ultimately bad for Boko Haram, but even worse for Hausas.

KANO, Nigeria — In an imam’s quiet office, two young men in long hooded robes, their faces hidden by checked scarves, calmly described their deadly war against the Nigerian state

he office door was open. Children from the Koranic school adjoining the mosque streamed past, laughing and jostling. Worshipers from the evening prayer service, which the young men had just left, poured into the parking lot. If the police had been alerted in any way, the two young men would have been instantly arrested, or worse. But neither appeared nervous about possible betrayal.

“It is not the people of Nigeria, it is only the army and the police who are against us,” said one of the men, explaining their membership in Boko Haram, the militant group that has claimed responsibility for killing hundreds in its battle against the Nigerian government. “Millions of people in Kano State are supporting us.”

His bravado notwithstanding, the violent Islamist army operating out of these dusty alleyways, ready to lash out and quickly fade back, is deeply enmeshed in the fabric of life in this sprawling metropolis, succored by an uneasy mix of fear and sympathy among the millions of impoverished people here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/world/africa/in-northern-nigeria-boko-haram-stirs-fear-and-sympathy.html?_r=1

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 07:44 AM

This is an insurrection.

Gunmen suspected to be members of the Islamic sect Boko Haram Saturday killed a policeman and made away with his gun.

A vulcaniser who was said to be repairing a tyre for the bike belonging to the policeman was also shot when he raised the alarm.

The incident took place along Samaru Road close to Excel Universal College in Kakuri area of Kaduna at about 5pm.

Eye witness account said the two gunmen came on a bike and shot the policeman twice before snatching his gun.

They also shot the vulcaniser who started shouting before speeding off on the bike. The policeman was said to have died on the spot while the vulcaniser was rushed to the Kakuti General Hospital where he was said to be receiving treatment.

The incident was said to have caused panic among residents of the area as many people ran for their dear lives while shops around the area were immediately closed.

Officers and men of the Kaduna State security outfit, Operation Yaki, who were deployed to the area however refused to comment on the issue.

Spokesman of the Kaduna State Police, Aminu Lawan , nonetheless confirmed the incident, saying investigations were on to get the culprits.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/boko-haram-kills-policeman-in-kaduna/110103/

Stan

02-26-2012, 12:40 PM

The Western environmental types will be up in arms against hydro power. Sometimes, I thank God for the Chinese - if we didn't have the Chinese, no dams would be built. (They are willing to provide financing and loans for dams).

Actually, the Inga dams (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inga_dams) have been around for quite some time. Back in the day when the Americans were running it, there was never a power outage and sufficient power available that it could even be exported.

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 02:04 PM

Actually, the Inga dams have been around for quite some time. Back in the day when the Americans were running it, there was never a power outage and sufficient power available that it could even be exported.

I've been tracking Western involvement in Africa since independence (wasn't born then - but had access to the literature).

The last time the West was serious about funding infrastructure in Africa was in the sixties and seventies (when the Inga Dam was built). When Reagan and Thatcher came along with their bone-headed "Structural Adjustment Programmes", infrastructure was de-emphasised and the only thing that mattered was (a) bankers in New York and London had their loans repaid and (b) the non-existent private sector in Africa would fund infrastructure and social spending.

By the late nineties, it was clear to both the World Bank and the IMF that the Structural Adjustment Programmes were a total disaster. (Urban incomes in Nigeria declined by 90% within a decade!). So, the policies were changed to reverse the rise infant mortality, drop in school enrollment and collapse of the social sector - the market wasn't king after all.

(This is not to say that African politicians do not share a major part of the blame, but there is no point designing policies on the assumption that African politicians would behave like Swedish and Norwegian politicians).

That is why a lot of social welfare orientated programmes were initiated in the nineties. (Bono, Tony Blair, Clinton come to mind).

Private sector participation worked splendidly in the provision of telecommunications infrastructure - you can get excellent mobile phone reception in Somalia and even Al Shabab has a vested interest in ensuring that mobile phones work. However, there was still a reluctance to invest in or even provide loans to fund massive infrastructure projects.

And this was when Chinese first showed interest in funding infrastructure. After the Liberian Civil War, Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson approached the West for assistance in rebuilding Liberia. She was told that we don't do infrastructure, so she met the Chinese, and the Chinese are still there.

It is in reaction to Chinese activities in Africa that Western agencies are showing interest in infrastructure projects, but please note that (a) news reports of Western involvement wildly overestimate the enthusiasm levels and (b) the West doesn't have much money to throw around these days, anway.

It is instructive to note that the Bui dam (along with 90% of the other major hydro-electric projects in Africa) are being financed by the Chinese. The Chinese can give me loans at LIBOR plus 2.5% with an extended grace period and let me pay using my cotton exports. On the other hand, the West insists on commercial rates. It is a no-brainer (for both well run and incompetently run African governments).

Secondly, there are no Chinese friends of the water, or water for life type environmental NGOs. Before the first piece of earth is moved, these organisations will be shouting for the project to halt. No Western company can withstand that kind of negative publicity, so they pull out almost immediately.

So while there will be a lot of noise in the Western media about participation in the "Greater Inga dam", it will be financed by the Chinese, as usual.

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 02:15 PM

Boko Haram again, this time in Jos, a city with a history of violent religious crisis.

JOS, Nigeria — A suicide car bomber detonated his explosives outside a major church Sunday, killing three people and wounding 38 others in a restive central Nigerian city that has seen hundreds die in religious and ethnic violence.

The explosion struck the main headquarters of the Church of Christ in Nigeria during its early morning service, Plateau state spokesman Pam Ayuba said. The attack killed a woman, and a father and his child near the explosion, Ayuba said.

The bomber apparently ran down the woman while racing his car toward the church compound, said Mark Lipdo, a coordinator for a Christian group called the Stefanos Foundation. The blast left shattered glass all over the church compound, as an angry crowd of youths began smashing the windows of cars passing by the scene, witnesses said.

Emergency officials took 38 people to hospitals for treatment, said Yushau Shuaib, a spokesman with Nigeria's National Emergency Management Agency.

Police officials in the city could not be immediately reached for comment. A military spokesman for the area said officials would brief journalists late Sunday.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, though a radical Islamist sect known as Boko Haram has launched increasingly bloody attacks across Nigeria, including attacks on churches. A Christmas Day bombing of a Catholic church that left at least 44 dead was claimed by the sect in Madalla, a town just outside the country's capital of Abuja.

The group also claimed responsibility for bomb attacks on Christmas Eve that struck Jos, killing as many as 80 people.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120226/af-nigeria-violence/

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 06:42 PM

The Wikipedia entry on the Bui dam is quite instructive. (Remember that Ghana is one of the better run nations in Africa).

An international call for tender was issued, but only a single company submitted a bid and the tender was cancelled. In 2005 the Chinese company Sinohydro submitted an unsolicited bid for the dam together with funding from the Chinese Exim Bank. The government accepted the bid and the Ministry of Energy signed contracts for an environmental impact assessment in December 2005, as well as for an updated feasibility study in October 2007. In August 2007 the government created the Bui Power Authority to oversee the construction of the dam and the associated resettlement, as well as to operate the dam and power plant. The responsibility for the dam was thus taken away from the Volta River Authority, which until then had been responsible for the development and operation of all power projects in Ghana.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bui_Dam

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 07:22 PM

Rough justice immediately delivered. The Jos people are just as violent as anyone else. Let's pray Jos doesn't descend into another orgy of killings and reprisal killings.

Heard there was a debate to hand him over to the police, but it seems no one there trusted the police enough to think that (a) he would be charged or (b) any useful intelligence would come out of it.

That's one of the problems of dealing with an insurgency in a very weak state. Recall that Pakistan has at least half a million men in uniform - Nigeria has barely sixty thousand in the army.

Angry worshippers at the headquarters of Church Of Christ In Nations (COCIN) in Jos on Sunday killed one of the two suspected bearers of the explosives that hit the Church in the morning.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the bomber and one other, who both wore army camouflage, drove into the Church and beat the security before hitting the building.

NAN correspondent, who was at the scene, reports that the suspect appeared to be in his early 30s.

The suspect, who wore a neatly carved moustache, looked well-fed.

But probably afraid of dying, the bomb carrier jumped out of the vehicle just before the blast went off and attempted to run but could not move as he was affected by the blast.

The angry worshipers, however, descended on him and clubbed him to death.

An eyewitness and a worshipper in the Church, Joyce Dalyop, told NAN that there were arguments among the worshipers over what to do with the bomber before he was finally killed.

``Immediately they (bombers) entered the Church, one of them jumped out of the black jeep but luck ran out of him as the explosion affected him and so he could not run very fast before he was caught.’’

``Some people even pleaded that he should not be killed; they suggested that he should be handed over to Police for further investigation, but others argued that the police could not be trusted and opined that the suspect may be released,” she said.

http://www.leadership.ng/nga/articles/17445/2012/02/26/worshippers_kill_suspected_fleeing_church_bomber.h tml

Surferbeetle

02-26-2012, 09:22 PM

the market wasn't king after all.

(This is not to say that African politicians do not share a major part of the blame, but there is no point designing policies on the assumption that African politicians would behave like Swedish and Norwegian politicians).

That is why a lot of social welfare orientated programmes were initiated in the nineties. (Bono, Tony Blair, Clinton come to mind).

Private sector participation worked splendidly in the provision of telecommunications infrastructure - you can get excellent mobile phone reception in Somalia and even Al Shabab has a vested interest in ensuring that mobile phones work. However, there was still a reluctance to invest in or even provide loans to fund massive infrastructure projects.

KJ,

Appreciate your able commentary and heartfelt observations.

If I recall correctly you are a McKinsey/Management Consultancy Veteran and MBA holder? Civil Engineer on this end with a MBA, who has soldiered, and a sometimes fan of Dr Sachs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs)...whooptie, not a brag just presented as a baseline for a point of view/origin comparison. Futhermore I have never lived in or visited Africa, nor do I really track events there.

Nonetheless let's discuss some of your points...:wry:

So, if the market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market) is not the best answer out of a universe of tough answers, and i say this genuinely, what then is the answer? I have been seriously looking for answers, to the human condition, in the middle east, central america, europe, and of course America.

You have provided the example of the telecommunications industry (dare i say market) as an organizing force for good/hope/actualization?

Business, engineering, and soldiering have impressed upon me the importance of geography. With the vast distances that comprise Africa...am i on target to suggest that since ideas/information as a 'product' are not bound by the common constraints of volume & weight costs imposed by the market upon traditional physical products (commodities, finished products, etc), the 'cost of ideas/information' are thus perhaps an indicator as to why the wireless telecommunications industry thrives in Africa? Dr Sachs makes a number of interesting observations & arguments regarding the benefits and limitations of of geography in his book The End of Poverty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Poverty) (prescriptions and observations which are not limited to Africa) as does David S. Landes in his book The Wealth and Poverty of Nations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_and_Poverty_of_Nations).

So given this argument why does the East spend money on infrastructure in Africa while the west does not?

My observations of state owned enterprises reflect the view that they are very inefficient when viewed through traditional business prisms of cost & benefit, but that they are not necessarily set up for traditional 'business benefits'...instead social benefits and other benefits (geostrategic?) seem to trump the 'hard-nosed-business-analysis' that you and i may be more familiar with. Current business organization trends in the East and West seem to reflect a greater preference for SOE's in the East than in the West (although there are of course exceptions to this...Fannie Mae (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fannie_Mae), Freddi Mac (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddie_Mac), Sallie Mae (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sallie_Mae), the TVA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority), etc)

I wonder if examining the rise/connection of European city-states over time would add to the conversation?

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 11:40 PM

So given this argument why does the East spend money on infrastructure in Africa while the west does not?

The East sees Africa a lot differently from the West and the needs of the East are different from the needs of the West.

All the West really needs from Africa is energy (Oil and Gas). Since the West really isn't into the high-volume, low-value manufacturing that requires a lot of iron ore, cotton, tin, copper and other commodities, it has little need for or desire to expand its footprint in Africa.

The Western strategy is four-fold (a) secure Oil and Gas supplies (b) ensure that the humanitarian situation is kept at a tolerable level - most ex-colonial powers don't want to be swamped with asylum seekers from their former colonies (c) limit the spread of public health challenges like AIDS (a lot of money is being spent to ensure that the AIDS epidemic in Africa doesn't spill over to the West and (d) limit the spread of terrorism.

The West doesn't really see Africa as being economically viable, not now and not even in the next thirty years.

On the other hand, the East sees Africa differently and their developmental model is different. The Chinese are leveraging on their thirty-year experience of economic transformation:

1. China was a poor vast nation rich in natural resources requiring infrastructure. The Japanese struck a deal with the Chinese - give us Oil and other commodities and we'll provide funding for infrastructure. The Chinese agreed and it worked.

Many Chinese deals in Africa are structured like the first deals the Chinese struck with the Japanese.

2. Cross the river by feeling for the stones as opposed to IMF/World Bank shock therapy. The Chinese economic transformation took off in Shenzhen - special economic zone. What worked in Shenzhen was applied to Guangzhou, then Shanghai, then Beijing and finally to the Western regions of China. Contrast this with the disastrous shock therapy treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Russia and you'll realise there is some wisdom in the Chinese approach.

The African coast is dotted with planned special economic zones.

China sees Africa as a potential market. On the other hand, West has never seen Africa as a potential market -not now and certainly not during the colonial era, Africa was merely a source for commodities which were processed into finished goods and traded with other developed economies.

Since much of what the West obtains from Africa is Oil and Gas, the presence of an vibrant middle class is seen more in terms politics/diplomacy than economics. The Chinese, on the other hand, have a lot they wish to sell to Africans (mobile phones, VCRs, clothes, motorcycles, petrol-driven generators etc), so they are very enthusiastic about raising living standards in Africa.

I've never been a fan of Jeffery Sachs and the rest of the development glitterati. (I can't stand Nicholas Kristof). None of these people are businessmen or have run a business, they write a lot of good sounding theory, but they are relatively unknown to most Africans, and frankly speaking have very little impact on what happens in the ground.

I prefer to read Dambisa Moyo and William Easterly.

If the West can take any lessons away from Iraq, Afghanistan and fifty years of Western assisted development efforts in Africa, it is that the West doesn't know how to do development and development is best left to professionals like the Singaporeans and the Chinese. If you had anyone who oversaw the transformation of Victorian England around with us today, or anyone who oversaw the opening of Western US - then you could compete with the Chinese. Since these people are long dead and buried, the best course of action is to pick the brains of the proteges of Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping - they are still alive.

Rwanda, one of Africa's best run nations, is swarming with Singaporeans. I suspect Kagame really listens to the Singaporeans (who prefer that everything is kept quiet) and only listens to the likes of Sachs because of aid funding.

Finally, about Telecommunications (I actually did my masters degree in Telecom Engineering), there was a technology revolution and since the media is wireless, not wired, infrastructure costs were low (and falling by the year). These conditions do not yet exist in power generation and distribution (no wireless power transmission yet) or road construction. If there is a technological breakthrough in solar energy, things could change drastically, but that still leads us with roads.

Consequently, the barriers to entry are lower, initial investment required is smaller, risks are lower and payback period is much shorter. There was also a well-defined business model. You can't say that about power generation and road construction.

Interestingly, China offers a business model for road construction. A good proportion of expressways in China are toll roads, so the Government incurs less debt in road construction. This model is already being tried in Lagos, Nigeria and could be exported to the rest of Africa.

**I'm not a McKinsey person - I worked at KPMG and Accenture.

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 11:48 PM

My observations of state owned enterprises reflect the view that they are very inefficient when viewed through traditional business prisms of cost & benefit, but that they are not necessarily set up for traditional 'business benefits'...instead social benefits and other benefits (geostrategic?) seem to trump the 'hard-nosed-business-analysis' that you and i may be more familiar with. Current business organization trends in the East and West seem to reflect a greater preference for SOE's in the East than in the West (although there are of course exceptions to this...Fannie Mae, Freddi Mac, Sallie Mae, the TVA, etc)

The biggest SOE in the World (apart from the Peoples Liberation Army) is actually the NHS (National Health Service) of Britain. How would you classify Airbus?

So it is not only the East that is in the business of SOEs, Europe does a lot of it. The US likes to pretend that it isn't in that business (but that's a topic for another day).

The most important question is whether SOEs can work in Africa, I doubt it. The organisational and professional culture is lacking.

KingJaja

02-26-2012, 11:57 PM

So, if the market is not the best answer out of a universe of tough answers, and i say this genuinely, what then is the answer? I have been seriously looking for answers, to the human condition, in the middle east, central america, europe, and of course America.

Let me explain what I meant. You go to a nation with very low human capital indices, absolutely no private sector and very poor organisational culture. You go there and say - you must privatise and privatise by this time tomorrow!

That is exactly what IMF/World Bank shock therapy was all about. In Russia, KGB gangsters took over the commanding heights of the economy. In Nigeria, former generals and their cronies took over the economy. The end result of this process is not a strengthening of institutions or a rise in living standards or even an efficient market, because there was no market in place to start with.

That is exactly why the Thatcher/Reagan consensus was such a bone-headed concept and the effects are still with us today.

On the other hand, crossing the river by feeling for the stones gives both operators and regulators ample to learn from their mistakes before going live.

I prefer that you take a concept, try it out in a test area, if it works there apply it to the rest of the country. If it doesn't junk it. Not all cultures adapt easily to capitalism, not all cultures are entrepreneurial.

Economic policy is more of an art than a science.

Chowing

02-27-2012, 03:39 PM

Kingjaja said,

If the West can take any lessons away from Iraq, Afghanistan and fifty years of Western assisted development efforts in Africa, it is that the West doesn't know how to do development and development is best left to professionals like the Singaporeans and the Chinese.

I agree. Americans have good hearts, want to help and even put some effort and a lot of funds into trying to help, but they are not very good at it at all. However, I do not agree the the Singaporeans and Chinese are are best. They come in and run the entire projects, often from top to bottom, supplying experts and labor. They do not have long enough track record for me to agree that they understand development or are any better than others. I am speaking specifically of their contribution to Africa. Yes, they have left behind railways, ports and roads that have indeed upgraded the infrastructure, yet they have not left behind knowledgeable, experienced Africans who can duplicate what they have done.

Real development must be reproducible by locals. Mot foreigner development leaders are either too unwittingly arrogant or lack trust in the locals. Mistakes are a great way to learn, but most foreign development folks are afraid of failure, they feel the need to justify to their donors that everything the spend goes toward success. They claim short term success and leave, not leaving behind much that can be reproduced.

Kingjaja also said,

Finally, about Telecommunications (I actually did my masters degree in Telecom Engineering), there was a technology revolution and since the media is wireless, not wired, infrastructure costs were low (and falling by the year).

Herein, is where I think a new era for Africa is coming. There is a new generation of young Africans who, like their counter parts around the globe, have been raised around mobile technology. They understand it and have already made some major contributions in terms of mobile apps that make real differences. Examples are Sudan Vote Monitor (grass roots reporting of polling problems reported via cell app), Kilimo Salama (cell phone based crop insurance scheme), and pedigree (cell based app for verifying quality of meds purchased in markets).

I know that mobile technology will not answer all ills that bring about poverty, yet it will IMHO, bring up, in fact is bringing up a generation of young African entrepreneurs who are confident and will continue to branch into other areas.

KingJaja

02-27-2012, 06:01 PM

I agree. Americans have good hearts, want to help and even put some effort and a lot of funds into trying to help, but they are not very good at it at all. However, I do not agree the the Singaporeans and Chinese are are best. They come in and run the entire projects, often from top to bottom, supplying experts and labor. They do not have long enough track record for me to agree that they understand development or are any better than others. I am speaking specifically of their contribution to Africa. Yes, they have left behind railways, ports and roads that have indeed upgraded the infrastructure, yet they have not left behind knowledgeable, experienced Africans who can duplicate what they have done.

Real development must be reproducible by locals. Mot foreigner development leaders are either too unwittingly arrogant or lack trust in the locals. Mistakes are a great way to learn, but most foreign development folks are afraid of failure, they feel the need to justify to their donors that everything the spend goes toward success. They claim short term success and leave, not leaving behind much that can be reproduced.

I would have agreed with you if all I depended on was news reports from the Western media. However, the reality is a bit more complex than that - the involvement Nigerian engineers and technicians in the Chinese-funded satellite project, the proliferation of manufacturing joint-ventures between Nigerian and Chinese businessmen and the impressive training offered by Chinese companies like Huawei to Nigerians (my sister-in-law went for long training sessions at Shenzhen) flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

Square this with the recent directive by the Nigerian government that Western Oil and Gas companies should employ suitably qualified Nigerians (which are not in short supply) as opposed to employing more expensive expatriates.

Secondly, working with the Chinese, you don't get the feeling that you are working with a bunch of "know-it all's" . We tend to have a better grasp of areas like financial management, human resources and even some aspects of information systems and project management, so they are willing to learn. You can see Nigerian banks offering training to the Chinese counterparts - and the Chinese are willing to learn, lower costs and less hassles.

KingJaja

02-27-2012, 06:21 PM

Just to add.

Have you heard about Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing? It is a joint venture between a Nigerian Industrialist and Wuling of China - they assemble buses and motorcycles and manufacture plastics. They want to go into tyre manufacturing (Nigerian has an abundance of rubber).

A lot of technology transfer is taking place in organisations like Innoson and Dangote Cement (which has a technical partnership with Sinoma).

I am told that the Buddhist concept of charity differs from the Western concept and that the Buddhist concept of charity is to build bridges and fix roads for strangers to aid them on a smooth and safe journey. That difference is reflected in the approach the Chinese, South Koreans and Japanese adopt in Africa. We all know how the Western concept of charity is implemented and how it affects development policy, but who am I to say that one concept is superior to the other?

(Just to add, LG electronics of Korea and my local state government recently partnered on a technical academy and electronic training center).

Stan

02-27-2012, 07:22 PM

I don't want to get into a pissin' contest over why MB left Nigeria and why the West is squeamish, and why the Chinese prosper, But, Innoson was just recently looking for a N150 billion bail-out.

You're correct, the Chinese are ready to invest without risk and the West bows out.

Not the success story it portrays unless we feel operating at 10 percent of installed capacity is a good thing.

BTW, LG nearly went bankrupt over here with returns and warranties.

EDIT: Take a look at how many Chinese tanks and vehicles that lay dormant in the DRC and what most of the West concluded (as if they had some say in the matters):
The challenge for other African countries is to develop a clear vision for sustainable development which should form the foundation for constructive engagement with China.

There is no evidence of sustainable development IMO.

KingJaja

02-27-2012, 09:48 PM

Dayuhan

02-27-2012, 11:18 PM

then you could compete with the Chinese.

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese? Who ever said there's a competition going on? I don't think the US or "The West" needs to see Chinese engagement as a threat or a challenge in any way... more an opportunity for us to ease out of a pattern of engagement that's involved much expense and little return on investment for anyone but the aid industry. If the Chinese want to deal with it and the Africans are good with that, good on 'em and more power. No need for anything but a sigh of relief on our side.

I am told that the Buddhist concept of charity differs from the Western concept and that the Buddhist concept of charity is to build bridges and fix roads for strangers to aid them on a smooth and safe journey. That difference is reflected in the approach the Chinese, South Koreans and Japanese adopt in Africa. We all know how the Western concept of charity is implemented and how it affects development policy, but who am I to say that one concept is superior to the other?

What does charity have to do with it? The Chinese aren't in Africa to help or provide charity. Everything they do is done to advance their own perceived interests. That's not necessarily a bad thing; interests can be compatible and as long as both sides understand the nature of the relationship an arrangement based on interests is probably more stable and predictable than a charitable relationship.

It may turn out that somewhere down the line interests will diverge... seems likely, but any attempt to foretell the future is speculative by nature. When and if that happens, it will be up to the parties involved to renegotiate the terms of engagement.

Either way, the less the US has to do with it the happier I'll be.

KingJaja

02-27-2012, 11:47 PM

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese? Who ever said there's a competition going on? I don't think the US or "The West" needs to see Chinese engagement as a threat or a challenge in any way... more an opportunity for us to ease out of a pattern of engagement that's involved much expense and little return on investment for anyone but the aid industry. If the Chinese want to deal with it and the Africans are good with that, good on 'em and more power. No need for anything but a sigh of relief on our side.

You personally might not want to compete, but your arms, Oil and Gas and "aid" industries (which by the way employ hundreds of thousands of people), see competition with the Chinese as a good way of (a) attracting more government attention and (b) ensuring future growth.

What does charity have to do with it? The Chinese aren't in Africa to help or provide charity. Everything they do is done to advance their own perceived interests. That's not necessarily a bad thing; interests can be compatible and as long as both sides understand the nature of the relationship an arrangement based on interests is probably more stable and predictable than a charitable relationship.

Who told you so? Do you have conclusive evidence to support that view or is it true only because you feel it in your gut? There is a lot more to Chinese involvement in Africa than the caricature presented in Western media. We Africans have a better appreciation of the situation on the ground.

They actually do some charity, but they do it differently from the West.

Finally nobody is in Africa primarily for charity, no one, not even the morally upright and ever righteous United States.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 07:50 AM

The leader of the Nigerian Christian Association is advocating that Nigerians should be allowed to carry guns. Before you accuse him of being "anti-Christian", please read this scripture:

But now, whoever has a money belt is to take it along, likewise also a bag, and whoever has no sword is to sell his coat and buy one.” (Luke 22:36 NASB)

This is exactly the kind of problem that opponents of Sharia law like myself envisaged. You cannot create an environment in which one religious tradition is favoured over another and expect the other religious tradition not to demand its "own space" in Nigerian politics. This is just the beginning, I expect to see references to St. Augustine's City of God or Theory of Just War or the theology of Bonhoeffer or any theology that supports a more militant expression of Christianity.

Let me remind us, that Nigeria is not Egypt and Nigerian Christians are not Copts. The last time Sharia was tried in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation, it left that nation divided. That should be a cautionary tale.

Many people believe that the Federal government of Nigeria is clueless on how to effectively solve the problem and security threat poised by the Islamic terror group Boko Haram, the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor isn’t left in that kind of conscious thought as he as made a call to President Goodluck to allow every Nigerian arm themselves to the tooth, to carry guns, ammunitions for self-protection. This call by the CAN president isn’t unconnected with the recent bombast in Jos that left over 5 people dead and dozens injured .

In his statement made available to the Nigerian Tribune on Monday, He said: “we urge the president, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, to stop the orgy of ethnic cleansing or accede to recent calls for all Nigerians to carry arms”.

“If the president could no longer guarantee the safety of life and property of Nigerians, in accordance with the oath he took, then the National Assembly should immediately enact a law that would make every Nigerian to carry arms for their own protection”.

The man of God concluded that the country was deliberately moving towards its total collapse in 2015 as predicted by an American prophecy.

What do you think? Does the bible allow for such vengence or has the Pastor gone too far??

http://www.newsnaija.com/allow-every-nigerian-carry-guns-pastor-oritsejafor-tells-jonathan/1772/

Stan

02-28-2012, 03:37 PM

Innoson did not seek a 150 billion naira bailout, all the local automakers sought a bailout together (just like GM and Ford). Similarly, the textile mills sought for and obtained a bailout.

Oops, my bad !

As to why MB left Nigeria, MB was involved in an unprofitable joint venture arrangement with local state governments and the Federal Government. An attempt was made to sell the plant at Enugu, but it was marred in controversies. As for Peugeot, it was clear as early as the nineties that they ran an unsustainable business model. They kept on banging out old models (like the 504) that couldn't compete against second hand Toyotas for fuel efficiency and cost.

Sounds very similar to Sub-Sahara although MB never ran out of business with over 300 Zairian government officials needing their own black MB :wry: The Peugeot 504 was the worst car I ever had the pleasure to drive but yet so cheap that they were everywhere. The taxation on new and used cars from Europe meant almost no imports. Only the NGOs drove Land Cruisers !

Secondly, a common dismissive retort I get from Westerners is we tried this in the sixties and seventies and failed, so the Chinese are bound to fail. Let me remind you that:

You won't hear that from me and I doubt for all the reasons Dayuhan lists, that the Chinese will outright fail. They do business on a totally different level and will be only too happy to snap up what the West doesn't. The day may come when they've had their fill, or, when the resources run out.

2. Secondly, we must have learned something from the mistakes of the sixties and seventies. If you insist we haven't, please explain that to me - with solid evidence not hearsay or speculation.

I assume Nigeria has come a long way since the 70s. With perhaps two exceptions (The Ivory Coast and Rwanda) none of the other seven countries I worked in has progressed beyond 1984.

3. Western involvement in Africa has been driven by a lack of consistency and rapidly shifting development goals - that doesn't mean that the Chinese will follow suit. In the sixties and seventies it was industrial development and import substitution, in the eighties and nineties it was structural adjustment programs. Today it is the Millennium Development Goals. There is a new development paradigm every decade - the surest sign that development efforts are doomed to failure.

During my time our involvement was driven by the Cold War and little else. The only thing rapid was when a new president was elected or when we were faced with a continuing resolution :D The Chinese love to fiddle and build stuff - I don't have any problems with them doing that. What I don't care for is their most favored nation status and the cheap stuff they produce and export. Personal thing of mine !

4. I have gently tried to remind you that Nigeria or Africa is not the DRC! Your experience of the DRC in the eighties and nineties gives you a fair understanding of the workings of the African mind, but it doesn't provide you with enough intellectual heft to make an unchallengeable judgment on the situation in Ghana, Kenya or even Nigeria.

The DRC is and was a disaster, even by African standards.

I don't expect to go unchallenged - that's the whole reason I'm here (and to learn something along the way !) You, I assume expect the same. As I have yet to even visit the countries you mentioned, I can only go on my instincts and what I read. The rest must come from people like you. I've returned to many of my former countries and may be heading for the Ivory Coast soon. So most of what I post is based on relatively recent information, not just from the 90s.

Finally, I don't think that a clear vision for sustainable development will emerge either from African governments, or international aid NGOs or from the Chinese. It will result from trial and error, from increasing involvement of local entrepreneurs like Innocent Chukwuma and Aliko Dangote in the business scene - a process the Chinese seem to be facilitating by providing technical expertise at a competitive cost.

The Western mind there suggests that the African host country develops a clear picture for sustainable development. The same sage advice could be recommended when dealing with the West. But fair to say, back then, that didn't happen and the dictator could have cared less.

As we speak, most school children in Lagos attend private schools - even the children of drivers and cooks. The private sector has picked the slack where the government was found wanting. Private universities are being established every year in Nigeria and interestingly, the University of Mogadishu is not only in operation, but is thriving.

The same could have been said for Zaire in the early 80s. Our office drivers both had more than 12 years of education and most of the Zairian officers had college educations. The private schools were also there, the locals just could not afford the tuition costs. I don't know anyone that doesn't care about their children's education - even in Africa. Zaire in the end lost her educational system due to lack of revenues and attractive work abroad. There were no rocket scientists, but there were educated people.

The growth of the private sector and human capital indices will have an impact on the quality of governance. In Nigeria, one can draw a correlation between the quality of governance and average literacy rates. There is a reason why Boko Haram could emerge in Maiduguri but not in Lagos (even though Lagos has a significant Muslim population).

An intriguing conclusion you've drawn. There are several places with high literacy rates and good governance, but yet, criminal and terrorist acts still prevail and persist. I believe that BH can't operate in Lagos due in large part to a lack of a support base. The Muslim population may be quite content in Lagos and simply not share the BH's sentiment sufficiently enough to cause or support mayhem.

Look forward to hearing again from you.

To you the same - back at ya !

Stan

02-28-2012, 04:09 PM

The leader of the Nigerian Christian Association is advocating that Nigerians should be allowed to carry guns. Before you accuse him of being "anti-Christian", please read this scripture:

The Father at the Catholic school I attended was an avid shooter and sportsman. While I never asked him what he would have done if the situation should come, it occurred to me he would have protected himself.
When the gun carry laws changed in Virginia, the crime rate declined. Criminals don't like it when their victims are equally armed :D

Here's an interesting article from a priest (http://ncronline.org/news/justice/gun-control-debate-catholic-position-elusive):

One gun-carrying priest: 'I tell people all life is sacred, including mine'

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 04:25 PM

The same could have been said for Zaire in the early 80s. Our office drivers both had more than 12 years of education and most of the Zairian officers had college educations. The private schools were also there, the locals just could not afford the tuition costs. I don't know anyone that doesn't care about their children's education - even in Africa. Zaire in the end lost her educational system due to lack of revenues and attractive work abroad. There were no rocket scientists, but there were educated people.

Unlike in Zaire, private schools in Lagos are generally affordable, that's why I mentioned that drivers and cooks send their children there. Parents have more faith in private schools even though teachers there are paid less than teachers in government schools. A British university did an interesting study on private schools in Lagos.

**There are private schools that cater to different socio-economic classes. When I take a one kilometer walk from my house to a bus-stop, I am surprised at the number of private schools on every street.

MB wasn't in the business of assembling cars in Nigeria (they have standards). They assembled trucks and buses.

There are African nations and there are African nations. A back of the beyond nation like the Central African Republic with a population of a few millions isn't a barometer of what the future of Africa will be.

Africa has it's key nations like Kenya (followed by Ethiopia and Tanzania) in East Africa. Nigeria (and to a lesser extent Ghana, Senegal and Cote D'Ivoire) in West Africa. South Africa (and to a lesser extent Angola) for the South and the North African nations. The success or failure of these nations will largely determine the success or failure of the rest of Africa.

For example, the success of South Sudan as an economic entity is largely dependent on how quickly it can integrate its economy with the economy of the East African region. Interestingly, the Kenyans seem to be quite enthusiastic about getting that pipeline done.

So if your experience of Africa has been limited to a few second-tier nations, you may not have an accurate picture of what is going on.

I see the Cold War as a wasted opportunity. However, countries like Nigeria and Ghana were officially non-aligned, so the dynamics you observed in Congo didn't really apply to us in Nigeria. There wasn't an all-out, zero-sum competition between the West, the Soviets and the Chinese for the attention of the ruling class. It was business and the business was less flavoured by competition or ideology.

Nyerere, who was in power around the same time in Mobutu and was well-intentioned attracted both the West, the Chinese and the Soviets. MacNamara (who was World Bank president at that time) fell in love with him, and the advice MacNamara offered Nyerere in the seventies was different from the prescriptions offered by the Reagan/Thatcher group. So my point about shifting priorities still holds.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 04:58 PM

The Father at the Catholic school I attended was an avid shooter and sportsman. While I never asked him what he would have done if the situation should come, it occurred to me he would have protected himself.
When the gun carry laws changed in Virginia, the crime rate declined. Criminals don't like it when their victims are equally armed

In Kano, the outsiders live in the stranger's quarters - Sabon Gari. Kano has a long history of violence against strangers and non-Muslims. In 1991, there was a particularly bad case of anti-Christian violence after an Evangelical preacher was invited there. Many people were killed.

The non-indigenes learned their lesson. They stocked up on guns and ammunition, so when the next round of anti-Christian fury was unleashed there was hell to pay.

Even Boko Haram has learned to leave Sabon-Gari alone.

Stan

02-28-2012, 05:12 PM

So if your experience of Africa has been limited to a few second-tier nations, you may not have an accurate picture of what is going on.

"You're only as strong as your weakest link" - something the Army drills into you. My relatively speaking limited view tells me that those weak links will be everybody's problem. If I gauge the entire continent's success on 3 or 4 success stories, I'd be naive at best. The more accurate picture floating around in my mind spells disaster regardless of how educated and successful your neighbors may be. That's just my opinion however and you are certainly entitled to yours.

Nyerere, who was in power around the same time in Mobutu and was well-intentioned attracted both the West, the Chinese and the Soviets. MacNamara (who was World Bank president at that time) fell in love with him, and the advice MacNamara offered Nyerere in the seventies was different from the prescriptions offered by the Reagan/Thatcher group. So my point about shifting priorities still holds.

To compare Julius Nyerere to Mobutu in any period of time is a long shot. One a farmer and the other a dictator, one relatively successful and the other a total waste of time. I can't see your point using these two gentlemen to strike a comparison. The West's priorities in the 70s and 80s shifted with the new administrations. Then there's Clinton :eek: Obama was to save the whole planet - a bit too much ambition knowing he would have to sell that Sierra to congress and the American public. Wait for the shift in priorities when they reduce the US Military.

Stan

02-28-2012, 05:22 PM

... so when the next round of anti-Christian fury was unleashed there was hell to pay.

Even Boko Haram has learned to leave Sabon-Gari alone.

Apparently BH is not invincible and has already demonstrated their lack of desire to hit hard targets. This last church bombing didn't go well and soon Christian churches will be "hard targets". While some may argue that a Catholic priest should not carry a firearm nor recommend doing so, I think the priest is the perfect conduit to eventually saving lives and getting people energized. I doubt Johnathan will allow every Nigerian to carry a gun, but the priest's words alone will create an uncomfortable atmosphere for the BH crowd.

tequila

02-28-2012, 05:35 PM

I doubt Johnathan will allow every Nigerian to carry a gun, but the priest's words alone will create an uncomfortable atmosphere for the BH crowd.

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 05:45 PM

"You're only as strong as your weakest link" - something the Army drills into you. My relatively speaking limited view tells me that those weak links will be everybody's problem. If I gauge the entire continent's success on 3 or 4 success stories, I'd be naive at best. The more accurate picture floating around in my mind spells disaster regardless of how educated and successful your neighbors may be. That's just my opinion however and you are certainly entitled to yours.

Its also an engineering principle. A structure is only as strong as its weakest member.

Having said that, nations are not armies or machinery. Many African nations are land-locked and there is practically nothing they can do unless their neighbours with access to the coast get up an running. Also relatively small nations with much larger neighbours will fall and rise with the economies of their larger neighbours. It is true in Europe and true in North America (Mexico and Canada depend heavily on the US economy).

I mentioned the Central African Republic. It is right in the geographical centre of Africa and surrounded by some terrible neighbours - DRC, South Sudan, Chad, Cameroun. There is absolutely nothing that the CAR can do to lift its economy without cooperating with at least one neighbour with access to the coast - and that leaves Cameroun (DRC is out of the question).

That is why you really need to examine economic trends of key nations to get a good picture of what is going in Africa.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 05:55 PM

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

It is not that easy. Most of the nation's wealth is near the coast, far away from the Muslim heartland. There is a strong Muslim merchant and political elite who understand that (a) a future Muslims only state in Northern Nigeria will look a lot like the Republic of Niger and that (b) it will be extremely difficult for Al Qaeda (or whatever it is called) to unseat the central government.

Now the central government dispenses patronage and if one takes up arms against the central government as fails in the attempt, then your access to the lucrative patronage networks is automatically terminated.

And the Southern elite would only rub their chubby hands with glee.

So this isn't Iraq and it is difficult to see a situation in which the local emirs are cowered into acceding to the demands of BH like the Iraqi Sunni tribal chiefs who were intimidated into supporting AQ.

There are also eighty million Christians here.

Stan

02-28-2012, 07:00 PM

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

I'm not sure I agree with you either. When and where did we determine that BH wants what the AQI wanted ? BH's demands in the beginning were quite feeble and the whole thing turned dirty over police brutality when a motorcyclist refused to wear a helmet and was summarily shot !!!

The Christian church plays a significant role in most of Africa, even as far North as the Chadian border with Libya. I suppose the priest could tell his congregation to turn the other cheek, but then it wouldn't be long before he was out of a job. What should he be doing ?

Stan

02-28-2012, 07:17 PM

Its also an engineering principle. A structure is only as strong as its weakest member.

Having said that, nations are not armies or machinery.

I knew there was something about you - we are both mechanical engineers :cool:

Having spent a lot of time in both Bangui and Yaounde I can say they are doing quite well (http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/country/Central-African-Republic/) despite their large and inhospitable neighbors and lack of coast line. But, if they are dependent on say the DRC getting up and running with a relatively miniscule coastline, then, the CAR is in a lot of trouble.

I won't even begin to compare the politically-driven relationships with the US, Mexico and Canada to that of the CAR. There's no remote comparison and the economic "powers to be" in the West can't even begin to fathom what most Africans deal with.

Chowing

02-28-2012, 07:25 PM

Here is an article I just came across from Feb. 21st, this year.
Could 2012 be Nigeria’s year of real reform? http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/could-2012-be-nigerias-year-of-real-reform/14768/

There are many reasons to be negative about Nigeria’s business environment. Issues such religious conflict, corruption, an inconsistent regulatory environment and poor infrastructure could push any investor to rather look at opportunities in other African countries.
Charles Robertson

Charles Robertson

Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital is, however, more upbeat about Nigeria’s future. In a recent note to investors, Robertson posed the question whether 2012 could be the start of a radical transformation for Nigeria? “Is this the year when investors should be taking long-term bullish positions in the market? It is beginning to look to us like the answer to both these questions is yes.”

He highlighted three key reform areas for Nigeria: the fuel subsidy, the electricity sector and oil production. “Progress in any one of these areas would justify a more positive approach to the market – while progress on all three would be extremely positive. To our surprise, the latter is happening.”
The tree areas he feels are pointing to a turn around in Nigeria's economy are the change in the fuel subsidy, the abolishment of the electricity Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), and new Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).

He believes all three of these will help the majority of Nigerians and are signs that outsiders ought to invest for the long term beginning now.

I really find it hard to believe that these three factors will favorably effect the north or even the middle belt for that matter. The Delta region could gain from the petroleum sector reform, but that is assuming that the wealth we be shared with or trickle down to the majority of the populous. That will take political reform as well as a new worldview by the elite.

How all of this will effect the unrest brought on by BH, I am not sure either. If the south and middle belt become better off and the north remains in a hurt, BH will have increased issues to use in recruitment and motivation.

Concerning the present discussion about outside involvement, this author is not calling for aid nor military intervention. He is stating that now is the time for investors to get involved. Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 07:33 PM

I knew there was something about you - we are both mechanical engineers :cool:

Having spent a lot of time in both Bangui and Yaounde I can say they are doing quite well (http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/country/Central-African-Republic/) despite their large and inhospitable neighbors and lack of coast line. But, if they are dependent on say the DRC getting up and running with a relatively miniscule coastline, then, the CAR is in a lot of trouble.

I won't even begin to compare the politically-driven relationships with the US, Mexico and Canada to that of the CAR. There's no remote comparison and the economic "powers to be" in the West can't even begin to fathom what most Africans deal with.

I actually trained as an Electronic/Telecommunications Engineer (BS, MS). However, I had to do the obligatory "strength of materials", "thermodynamics" and "fluid mechanics". I actually enjoyed thermo and strength of materials, fluid not so much.

jmm99

02-28-2012, 07:35 PM

Stan

02-28-2012, 07:40 PM

Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.

According to this article (http://allafrica.com/stories/201202150832.html), we've upped the anti to invest in Nigeria's electrical power.

I really love this (kind of like a fork in the Chinese ribcage - verbally) :D

Speaking on the capacity of investment flowing from the United States to compete with investments from other global investors such as China, India and the European Union, Felton stressed that the US offered high value products, stating that this was one of its competitive edge.

Stan

02-28-2012, 07:47 PM

Godiva was a Lady,
Who through Coventry did ride;
A showing all the villagers
Her pink and pearly hide.

The most observant fellow
Was an engineer, of course;
He was the only one who noticed,
That Godiva rode a horse.

Regards

Mike

PS Tequila: Naji's The Management of Savagery (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/images/Management%20of%20Savagery%20-%2005-23-2006.pdf) is something of the Julia Child's here ?

Thanks Mike !
The problem with Naji's theory is he never went south of Egypt and experienced what we used to call WAWA (West Africa Wins Again) :eek:
Even the Egyptians threw in the towel (along with the West and Israelis) when it came to comprehending the Zairois.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 07:50 PM

Here is an article I just came across from Feb. 21st, this year.
Could 2012 be Nigeria’s year of real reform? http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/could-2012-be-nigerias-year-of-real-reform/14768/

The tree areas he feels are pointing to a turn around in Nigeria's economy are the change in the fuel subsidy, the abolishment of the electricity Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), and new Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).

He believes all three of these will help the majority of Nigerians and are signs that outsiders ought to invest for the long term beginning now.

I really find it hard to believe that these three factors will favorably effect the north or even the middle belt for that matter. The Delta region could gain from the petroleum sector reform, but that is assuming that the wealth we be shared with or trickle down to the majority of the populous. That will take political reform as well as a new worldview by the elite.

How all of this will effect the unrest brought on by BH, I am not sure either. If the south and middle belt become better off and the north remains in a hurt, BH will have increased issues to use in recruitment and motivation.

Concerning the present discussion about outside involvement, this author is not calling for aid nor military intervention. He is stating that now is the time for investors to get involved. Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.

Let's look at map showing female literacy levels in Nigeria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/world/11/nigeria_election_toggle_maps/img/nigeria_literacy_624.gif

The statistics for Northern Nigeria are appalling and as we all know, female literacy levels are an indicator of male literacy levels and the educational level of the next generation. If you were an industrialist or an investor, you'll be foolish not to make use of a large pool of educated workers in the South and Middle Belt and the proximity of these zones to the largest markets in Nigeria also helps.

Investors see Nigeria as an opportunity, the problem is that most don't see many opportunities in Northern Nigeria. I was talking to the marketing manager of the largest cement company in Nigeria, he told me that 70 percent of their business is done in the South of Nigeria, while 30 percent is done in the North.

Northern Nigeria is at least a 30 year project and it will require an intense amount of money and investment. But there are issues: (a) there isn't much sympathy for the North in the South and (b) where is the money going to come from?

Northern Nigerians are moving down to seek economic opportunities in the South as I speak. I expect this trend to accelerate in the medium term. The North has immense agricultural potential, but this can only be properly harnessed when the security situation improves.

Stan

02-28-2012, 07:54 PM

I actually trained as an Electronic/Telecommunications Engineer (BS, MS). However, I had to do the obligatory "strength of materials", "thermodynamics" and "fluid mechanics". I actually enjoyed thermo and strength of materials, fluid not so much.

Nobody liked the fluid mechanics portions, but, when applied to or coupled with destruction principles it's a blast. The venerable water canon will soon change your mind on boring subjects :)

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 09:48 PM

According to this article, we've upped the anti to invest in Nigeria's electrical power.

I really love this (kind of like a fork in the Chinese ribcage - verbally)

Lol! This is Nigeria were are talking about. In case you don't know $15 billion went down the drain last decade - it was supposed to have been invested in power infrastructure. We didn't see any evidence of anywhere near that amount of money being spent.

On a more serious note, if you can pay bigger bribes than the Chinese, you are in business.

tequila

02-28-2012, 09:49 PM

It is not that easy. Most of the nation's wealth is near the coast, far away from the Muslim heartland. There is a strong Muslim merchant and political elite who understand that (a) a future Muslims only state in Northern Nigeria will look a lot like the Republic of Niger and that (b) it will be extremely difficult for Al Qaeda (or whatever it is called) to unseat the central government.

Now the central government dispenses patronage and if one takes up arms against the central government as fails in the attempt, then your access to the lucrative patronage networks is automatically terminated.

And the Southern elite would only rub their chubby hands with glee.

So this isn't Iraq and it is difficult to see a situation in which the local emirs are cowered into acceding to the demands of BH like the Iraqi Sunni tribal chiefs who were intimidated into supporting AQ.

There are also eighty million Christians here.

Hey, no one said that these guys are realistic. All that AQI's campaign ended up doing in the long run was getting them marginalized and the Sunni community in middle Iraq thoroughly shattered or expelled to Jordan and Syria. Remember, they think God is on their side.

BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/world/africa/in-northern-nigeria-boko-haram-stirs-fear-and-sympathy.html?sq=kano&st=cse&scp=3&pagewanted=print).

Last July the Nigerian news media reported on a letter of warning from the group to Kano’s leaders, including the emir, the traditional ruler of this ancient aristocratic city: “All those arrested should be released immediately, otherwise, I swear with Almighty Allah, we may be forced to deploy our men to Kano,” the letter said.

Six months later, on Jan. 20, the group struck. The planning had gone on under the noses of the authorities. “What happened in Kano was something which the security agencies had foreseen,” said Dr. Bashir Aliyu, a prominent imam in Kano.

There were up to five suicide bombers that day, at least 20 explosions, assaults on what were thought to be well-guarded state and regional police headquarters, on the State Security Service, an immigration (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/i/immigration_and_refugees/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) office and the residence of a high police official. Gunmen entered a police barracks and opened fire, killing dozens.

I'm not sure I agree with you either. When and where did we determine that BH wants what the AQI wanted ? BH's demands in the beginning were quite feeble and the whole thing turned dirty over police brutality when a motorcyclist refused to wear a helmet and was summarily shot !!!

Well, I don't think they'll be issuing a communique along those lines, but radicalizing your base, destroying established, moderate leaders, and 'heightening the contradictions' has been in the revolutionary playbook even before Lenin and Mao. AQI didn't stumble across anything new.

BH has moved on from then, and the stumbling response (http://allafrica.com/stories/201107261626.html)by the Nigerian security forces only feeds recruitment.

KingJaja

02-28-2012, 10:01 PM

BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano.

This is just a letter of warning. BH is not stupid enough to attempt to harm an emir. Kano has had an Islamic ruler for close to 1,000 years and there are some things you just don't tamper with, even if you think God is on your side.

Hey, no one said that these guys are realistic. All that AQI's campaign ended up doing in the long run was getting them marginalized and the Sunni community in middle Iraq thoroughly shattered or expelled to Jordan and Syria. Remember, they think God is on their side.

BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano.

All the better for Southerners and the Southern elite. They've never liked Muslims in the far North, anyway.

jmm99

02-29-2012, 02:17 AM

Naji's text (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/images/Management%20of%20Savagery%20-%2005-23-2006.pdf) is so jargonized in "AQese" that it is easy to overlook its more generalized concepts.

My take: The USG seems hampered by not making counter-use of "AQ ideas" in the situations where they can be applied by the US (or by a US client or co-belligerent). In fact, the USG has been reactive to and rejective of "subversive" methodologies during and after the Cold War. Thus, if "AQ" believes it can be successful in a situation of "savage chaos", the kneejerk USG reaction is to demand or attempt to create a situation of "civilized stability" (a "Westphalian-Weberian state").

The first generalized Najism deals with the partial or complete collapse of "Westphalian-Weberian states" [emphasis added in quotes below]:

p.26 pdf

First Topic: Definition of “the management of savagery” and an overview of its historical precedents

We said above that if one contemplates the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires fell – whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being which was equal in power or comparable to the previous state in its ability to control the lands and regions of that state which collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state became, according to human nature, subservient to what is called “administrations of savagery.” Therefore, the management of savagery is defined very succinctly as the management of savage chaos!!

"Savage chaos" has only resulted where "a state did not come into being which was equal in power or comparable to the previous state in its ability to control the lands and regions of that state which collapsed." The USG "solution" has been to support or try to create a successor state.

Moving back to Naji's earlier pages, we find a longer discussion applicable to post-colonial "Westphalian-Weberian" states, marked by civil-military merger and also delineated by the artificiality of colonial boundaries.

pp.12-13 pdf

Contemplating the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires collapsed – and even small states, whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being that was comparable in power and equivalent to the previous state with regard to control over the lands and regions of that state which had collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state changed, through human nature, on account of submission to what is called the administrations of savagery.

When the caliphal state fell, some of this savagery appeared in some of the regions. However, the situation stabilized soon after that on account of (the order) the Sikes-Picot treaty established. Thereupon, the division of the caliphal state and the withdrawal of the colonial states was such that the caliphal state was divided into (large) states and small states, ruled by military governments or civil governments supported by military forces. The ability of these governments to continue administering these states was consonant with the strength of their connection with these military forces and the ability of these forces to protect the form of the state, whether through the power which these forces derived from their police or army, or through the external power which supported them.

Here we will not deal with how these states were maintained or how these governments exercised control. Regardless of whether we believe that they obtained control by virtue of their victory over the governments of colonialsm, or by virtue of working secretly with colonial rule and being assigned its place when it withdrew, or a mixture of the two, these states, in short, fell into the hands of these governments because of one or both of these reasons.

Naji's basic proposition in his 268 page monograph is that these post-colonial states will fail (in whole or in part) with resultant areas of savage chaos. "His Islamists" can be the vanguard in causing those state failures, or the failures can be caused (in whole or in part) by non-affiliated groups. Not matter how a state arrives at "savage chaos", it can be managed by a group that knows the peculiar (local) conditions of "savage chaos" and takes advantage of those conditions. Those conditions and what is "managed" are quite basic.

pp.26-27 pdf

As for a detailed definition, it differs according to the goals and nature of the individuals in the administration. If we picture its initial form, we find that it consists of the management of peoples’ needs with regard to the provision of food and medical treatment, preservation of security and justice among the people who live in the regions of savagery, securing the borders by means of groups that deter anyone who tries to assault the regions of savagery, as well as setting up defensive fortifications.

(The stage of) managing the people’s needs with regard to food and medical treatment may advance to (the stage of) being responsible for offering services like education and so forth. And the preservation of security and securing the borders may advance to working to expand the region of savagery.

Why do we call it “management of savagery” or “management of savage chaos” and not “management of chaos”? That is because it is not the management of a commercial company, or of an institution suffering from chaos, or of a group of neighbors in a district or residential region, or even of a peaceful society suffering from chaos. Rather, it is more nebulous than chaos, in view of its corresponding historical precedents and the modern world and in light of wealth, greed, various forces, and human nature, and its form which we will discuss in this study. Before its submission to the administration, the region of savagery will be in a situation resembling the situation of Afghanistan before the control of the Taliban, a region submitting to the law of the jungle in its primitive form, whose good people and even the wise among the evildoers yearn for someone to manage this savagery. They even accept any organization, regardless of whether it is made up of good or evil people. However, if the evil people manage this savagery, it is possible that this region will become even more barbarous!

Of course, if the region becomes even more "savagely chaotic" because of "evil people", it simply gives the "good people" (who "know savage chaotics") another chance - and another chance, etc. It helps to have an unshakeable ideology here.

Besides the "Management of Savage Chaos" (a better title than the "Management of Savagery"), one might think in terms of the "Management of Relative Insecurity" as a parallel term.

I'd be curious what MAL thinks about my take on this more generalized interpretation of Naji.

If this generalization has validity, then those in a region of a "country" headed toward "savage chaos" might consider something less than the "ideal Westphalian-Weberian state". This "lesser" goal might be a logical and more beneficial condition to a majority in that region.

I'm not remotely suggesting that the USG get involved in that process in Nigeria or any other part of Africa.

Regards

Mike

KingJaja

02-29-2012, 10:54 AM

Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?

Gunmen yesterday detonated a powerful explosive at a primary school in Maiduguri, causing a fire that razed classrooms and the headmaster’s office.

The dawn attack on Gomari Costain Primary School was the fourth such raid suspected to be launched by Boko Haram over the past week, forcing four primary schools in the city to shut down.
The three other primary schools earlier burnt and shut down were those in Kulagumna, Budum and Abbaganaram.

At least 5,000 school children have been forced to stay at home because of the incidents, according to estimates by teachers in the affected schools.

Each of the four attacks was staged at night when the schools were closed, and so no pupil or teacher was killed.

In yesterday’s attack at Gomari, resident Sani Salisu said he heard a “deafening and frightening sound” around 5.45am, shortly after the morning Muslim prayers.

“There is dusk-to-dawn curfew in Maiduguri and therefore must of us did not go to the mosque for the morning prayers. The sound of the blast was followed by gunshots. It was in the morning that we realized that the blast was at the primary school,” Salisu said.

The New Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reported that some teachers of the school said a group of persons, mainly teenagers, drove away the security guard before setting the school ablaze.

One of the teachers, who lives near the school premises, said, “We heard a loud noise in the school at night and we thought it was a minor thing but when we reported for duty in the morning we discovered that fire had burnt the school. When we asked the security guard on duty he told us what happened.”

Another resident who did not want his name in print said he saw the dead body of an unidentified man around 7am yesterday near the blast scene.

“The copse was lying on ground about 200 metres away from the scene of the blast. I also saw another man with gunshot injuries being taken away,” he said.

Spokesman for the Borno State police command Samuel Tizhe confirmed that there was an attack at a primary school in the early hours of yesterday.

“We are, however, investigating circumstances that prompted the attacks on primary schools. Most of the schools affected by the assault were renovated recently,” he said.

Boko Haram, whose name means ‘Western education is prohibited’, has targeted mainly security formations since they launched their campaign of violence nearly two years ago.

In the attack on Kulagumna Primary School 10 days ago, two blocks of classrooms and the headmaster’s office were destroyed.

At Abbaganaram school, 20 classes, five offices and some stores where destroyed, while at Budum, four classrooms and a store filled with books and instructional materials were destroyed.

The new trend of attacks on primary schools has forced many parents to withdraw their children and wards from schools for fear of their safety, teacher Fanta Kaka Modu told Daily Trust.

“For now, at least 5,000 pupils in the four primary schools that have been burnt down must remain at home,” she said.

But officials of the State Universal Primary Education Board (SUBEB) are yet to give details of the impact of the attacks.

No one claimed responsibility for yesterday’s strike, but Boko Haram said they executed the earlier attack on the three primary schools.

In a teleconference with journalists in Maiduguri on Sunday, Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa said the sect attacked the three schools because security men had been raiding Islamic schools in Maiduguri recently.

“We attacked the schools because security operatives are going to Islamiyya schools and picking teachers. We are attacking the public schools at night because we don’t want to kill innocent pupils. Unless (Islamic schools) teachers are allowed to be, we would be compelled to continue attacking schools,” Qaqa said.

http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=155874:gunmen-sack-four-maiduguri-schools&catid=2:lead-stories&Itemid=8

KingJaja

02-29-2012, 12:52 PM

Taking a detour to the Niger Delta.

FYI - there is a case before the US Supreme Court about Shell's complicity in the murder of Ken Saro-Wiwa. Now there is significant evidence to back the claim that Shell gave tacit support to the Abacha administration to kill Saro-Wiwa.

WASHINGTON – (AFP) – The US Supreme Court heard arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit accusing Royal Dutch Shell of human rights abuses, a case that could make corporations liable for acts of torture or genocide overseas.

The plaintiffs — relatives of seven Nigerians killed by the country’s former military regime — sued the Anglo-Dutch energy giant and other firms for apparently enlisting the government to suppress resistance to oil exploration in the Niger Delta in the 1990s.

The case will test the potential liability of corporations — including multinationals with a US presence — under the Alien Tort Statute, a US law dating back to 1789 which scholars say was meant to assure foreign governments that the United States would help prevent breaches of international law.

“The international human rights norms that are at the basis of this case for the plaintiffs — crimes against humanity, torture, prolonged arbitrary detention, extrajudicial executions — all of those human rights norms are defined by actions,” plaintiffs’ lawyer Paul Hoffman told the court Tuesday.

“They’re not defined by whether the perpetrator is a human being or a corporation or another kind of entity,” he said.

Kathleen Sullivan, representing Shell, countered that all major international treaties refer to “individual liability” rather than corporate responsibility.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/us-supreme-court-tackles-shell-on-human-rights-abuses/

That unfortunate event occurred at the same time that John Major and Bill Clinton were making the right-sounding noises about "tyranny in Nigeria". The details of the case against Shell have had an effect of deepening the already deep mistrust of the British in Southern Nigeria.

I doubt that Shell would have done what it did without cover from the Brits and Americans.

As we say in my native language; lies are best told in the English language.

Interestingly, a British / Dutch firm is being tried in a US court and the ruling of the Supreme Court will also have an effect on the perception of the US in Nigeria. Looking at the composition of the court, I strongly suspect that Roberts and his fellow conservatives will rule in favour of Shell.

Let us remember the series of events the led to the Niger Delta insurrection. One needs to recall the formation of an environmental rights group by Saro-Wiwa, the judicial murder of Saro-Wiwa, the massive oil explosion that almost leveled the town of Jesse in 1999 and electoral politics and thuggery in the delta.

In retrospect, what might have seemed to be a wise decision by Shell and the Abacha administration ended up being a disaster. As recently as 1993, the problems of Niger Delta militancy could have been nipped in the bud, but no one in the Nigerian government or the Oil and Gas Industry was far-sighted enough to see that.

** After all we've been through with Shell, ChevronTexaco and ExxonMobil - all "the Chinese are monsters talk" doesn't faze us. :wry: It is difficult to believe that even the worst Chinese firm would behave as badly as Shell did in the Niger Delta.

This is what the Niger Delta looks like after fifty years of oil exploration by Western oil majors.

http://cdn.coastalcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/niger-delta-oil.jpg

Before you tell me it is all due to pipeline vandalism. Let me remind you that I spent some time at Shell and I know that the standards observed by Shell in Nigeria are nowhere near the standards observed by Shell elsewhere.

Shell and Western Oil majors are a deeply emotional topic for most Southern Nigerians. It is true they made a lot of money, but the permanently damaged the reputation of the West in the process.

Our government has been complicit, but since Nigeria has been ruled by Northerners for 38 out of its 51 years of independence, this also contributes to the hatred the South has for the North.

So sad.

Chowing

02-29-2012, 02:53 PM

Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?

http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=155874:gunmen-sack-four-maiduguri-schools&catid=2:lead-stories&Itemid=8

The schools being destroyed is sad, very sad indeed. They are not only destroying building, but the future of the northern part of the country. Infrastructure destruction has lasting consequences. Yet, it seems to me that these actions are logical progression of BH ideology. They are against western education so they are tearing it down. Parents are, or soon will, fear to send their kids off to school.

It continues to be obvious the BH can strike when and where they desire. The security forces are feeble at best. As Stan has said several times, BH is hitting soft targets. The sad part of hitting soft targets is that these targets are much more disruptive to everyday life of the average northerner and causes more fear in them, than bombing of UN buildings and government offices. The vast majority of the citizens live in or near these soft targets.

KingJaja

02-29-2012, 04:39 PM

The schools being destroyed is sad, very sad indeed. They are not only destroying building, but the future of the northern part of the country. Infrastructure destruction has lasting consequences. Yet, it seems to me that these actions are logical progression of BH ideology. They are against western education so they are tearing it down. Parents are, or soon will, fear to send their kids off to school.

It continues to be obvious the BH can strike when and where they desire. The security forces are feeble at best. As Stan has said several times, BH is hitting soft targets. The sad part of hitting soft targets is that these targets are much more disruptive to everyday life of the average northerner and causes more fear in them, than bombing of UN buildings and government offices. The vast majority of the citizens live in or near these soft targets.

How does the mirror the behaviour of the Taliban in Afghanistan? Should the Nigerian Army organise safe villages in the North (ala Malay insurgency)? But even if they try, 60,000 troops isn't enough to make it happen.

Are we on the road to Kinshasa - the government safely enclosed within Abuja while the rest of the country falls apart?

Stan

02-29-2012, 05:55 PM

Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?

Jaja, This is not my primary area of expertise, but it is an area that I am responsible for when performing post blast and reporting to law enforcement (as a means of supporting preventative or awareness training to the general public).

Destroying infrastructure (be it criminals or terrorists) is intended to disrupt, incapacitate and/or have an impact on security. protecting physical assets means tons of cooperation between the government and private sectors. Not that easy to do.

Preventative measures means that the Nigerians adapt a more dynamic process (more awareness and preparedness for all) which translates into simply being more prepared and ready to counter adversity. In a word, make BH's targets hard similar to what the police stations and churches have now accomplished. What that has done is made the BH focus on softer and less secure targets. Security is little more than making "this" so difficult that your opponent moves on to something easier (that you have yet to think of).

The entire picture is now called Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information (PMESII) which the USG uses to gauge the operational environment and create a plan of attack before the attack comes to be.

BH is merely identifying single points of failure in the hopes of crippling larger systems. Going after schools is not exactly what most would have assumed to be logical. They have not gone after agriculture, food and water which are abundant and very easy targets. But then, they have no intent on leaving Nigeria, so they are less likely to attack the very logistical system they need to survive. Really odd Sierra !

Should the Nigerian Army organise safe villages in the North (ala Malay insurgency)? But even if they try, 60,000 troops isn't enough to make it happen.

Are we on the road to Kinshasa - the government safely enclosed within Abuja while the rest of the country falls apart?

In your home town a "Kinshasa" won't work - the infrastructure is too good. We are back to anticipating their next moves and hardening obvious critical targets. I still recommend people start using the FBI assets in country. The BH acts (of terrorism if you wish to call it that) are very similar to organized crime. They have obviously done their homework and figured out that police stations and churches are hard targets and they incur fatalities.

KingJaja

02-29-2012, 08:08 PM

BH is merely identifying single points of failure in the hopes of crippling larger systems. Going after schools is not exactly what most would have assumed to be logical. They have not gone after agriculture, food and water which are abundant and very easy targets. But then, they have no intent on leaving Nigeria, so they are less likely to attack the very logistical system they need to survive. Really odd Sierra !

Most Nigerians obtain their water from wells or from the nearest stream / village. About food - that would be a logistical nightmare for even Boko Haram to pull off. The sources of food supply are too numerous. So I guess it boils down to schools.

If I recall (I'm just remembering this), they said that if security services attack local madrassas, they'll attack "Western-style" schools.

About the road to Kinshasa, I didn't mean it literally, I meant it figuratively. What I meant is that the Northern half of the country becomes too difficult for Abuja to manage and then government retreats to the South and Abuja - a bit like the situation that existed in the dying days of Mobutu.

KingJaja

02-29-2012, 09:59 PM

WASHINGTON - The top U.S. commander for Africa says he is increasingly concerned about the likelihood that terrorist groups in Somalia, North Africa and Nigeria want to coordinate their training, funding and terror activities.

Gen. Carter Ham told Congress Wednesday that terror leaders from al-Shabab, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram in Nigeria want to more closely synchronize their efforts. He says the three groups are the top three threats in that region, and their collaboration would present a real challenge to the U.S.

He also says that announcement earlier this month of al-Qaida's formal alliance with al-Shabab suggests that the Somalia-based insurgency has been weakened and is looking for greater international support. The two groups have been working together for several years.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20120229/APW/1202290820

The thing that interests me the most is the question of funding. Boko Haram (if it is aligned to the rest of these groups) has by far the best access to funding. Think about it, only a few weeks ago a serving state governor gave the family of a slain Boko Haram member's in-law 100 million naira compensation (almost a million dollars).

Protection money given to BH must be in the hundreds of millions (several million dollar range). You factor in money made from back robberies and Nigeria's monumental corruption and you have a potentially very rich set of terrorists.

Transferring the money to Al-Shahab shouldn't be too difficult - a lot of stuff goes under the radar in Dubai.

Who do you guys think?

Stan

03-01-2012, 01:27 PM

Most Nigerians obtain their water from wells or from the nearest stream / village. About food - that would be a logistical nightmare for even Boko Haram to pull off. The sources of food supply are too numerous. So I guess it boils down to schools.

Having said that, did you conclude that food and water are impossible to poison or contaminate ? Not everything is about explosives. How hard would it be to put a contaminated box of corn flakes into a grocery store ? How hard would it be for me to pour a gallon of sulfuric acid into someone's well ?

KingJaja

03-01-2012, 02:00 PM

Stan

03-01-2012, 03:52 PM

Stan,

It is not that easy to tamper with food or water sources.

In urban areas, virtually everyone has a private borehall (that is enclosed with the gates of the compound). In rural areas, there is either a well or a stream/river.

Sad to say this, but if you kill a thousand people a day in rural areas. No one will bat an eyelid, what happens in the city is what counts, unfortunately.

As we speak, children (hundreds of them) are dead or are going to die due to lead poisoning from gold prospecting. Nobody is terribly bothered about that (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamfara_State_lead_poisoning_epidemic).

Even if a contaminated bag of cornflakes is put in a grocery store. How does one conclude that the deaths are attributable to poison in the cornflakes? Nigeria does not have a robust forensics team and deaths are more likely to be attributed to Juju.

Jaja,
You are depressing me today with no hope in sight !
One of the many things that surprised me in Zaire was how much they cared for their offspring (at least until the civil war started).

It won't be juju if it occurs frequently and BH takes credit for doing it. If you recall the scares in the US when someone tampered with pain relievers - the entire country freaked out despite the fact it was isolated to a very small area. As you point out, if it takes place in Lagos, it will be time to freak out for Nigeria too.

We had an explosion here years ago (coincidentally in a box of corn flakes). It was months before people would even enter the store and the owner nearly went bankrupt. That's kind of the idea - you don't get off on Western corn flakes and you make your point.

None of this actually makes sense, it's just a pattern that we end up following from all over the world. Given the operational environment - Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information - there's only a few things left on the checklist for mayhem. BH is going after what remains "soft".

ganulv

03-01-2012, 04:42 PM

Chowing

03-01-2012, 05:33 PM

Just became aware of this and thought all would like to read it and comment. It will take me awhile to read and digest.
Here is the official document reprinted by allafrica.com
http://allafrica.com/stories/201203011203.html

KingJaja

03-01-2012, 05:35 PM

It won't be juju if it occurs frequently and BH takes credit for doing it. If you recall the scares in the US when someone tampered with pain relievers - the entire country freaked out despite the fact it was isolated to a very small area. As you point out, if it takes place in Lagos, it will be time to freak out for Nigeria too.

We had an explosion here years ago (coincidentally in a box of corn flakes). It was months before people would even enter the store and the owner nearly went bankrupt. That's kind of the idea - you don't get off on Western corn flakes and you make your point.

None of this actually makes sense, it's just a pattern that we end up following from all over the world. Given the operational environment - Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information - there's only a few things left on the checklist for mayhem. BH is going after what remains "soft".

Most Nigerians don't buy their processed food from large Walmart style department stores. They buy it from "mammy market" type stands (a few cigarettes, a few tins of milk, some loaves of bread, soap, detergent, soft drinks - you get my drift). There are hundreds of thousands of these kind of stores, so it is virtually impossible for Boko Haram to infiltrate all of them.

Most of us don't even eat cornflakes. We eat bread or akara or some locally produced food. The food we consume typically comes from a nearby bakery or is cooked by our wives or the local "Mama Put" (I'm more confident of Mama Put's ability to poison me due to poor hygiene than Boko Haram's :wry:). Trust me, I have been poisoned by Mama Put severally.

Most agricultural produce is farmed and consumed in the same location (e.g. cassava and vegetables). Foodstuffs like meat, beans and tomatoes come from the North, but how are you going to poison tomatoes or beans? We don't have refrigerated trucks, so the meat coming from Northern Nigeria has to travel on its four feet before getting anywhere - if you poison the cows, they'll be dead by the time they reach Abuja, not to talk about Lagos!

Processed foods like sugar, flour, milk etc usually come from factories in the South. Unless Boko Haram finds a way to infiltrate these factories and apply poisons to these foodstuffs, we are safe - but that is unlikely.

Nigeria actually has a quite effective food and drug regulation agency and in the unlikely event that BH manages to apply poison to a batch of noodles - well the factory gets sealed and business is lost. If BH claims responsibility for these deaths it will merely alert people on what products to avoid because our hapless forensics people wouldn't even know what is going on.

The wider point is that unlike the West, there is very little public infrastructure in Nigeria. I have my own borehole, I provide my own water and I largely provide my own electricity. I also contribute to my security by paying out of my pocket for a security man and I also contribute towards paving the streets in my housing estate and our children go to private schools.

Also remember that Nigeria has abundant food and water supplies (have you ever heard of an Ethiopia style famine in Nigeria since the Civil War?).

KingJaja

03-01-2012, 06:23 PM

It is one thing to diagnose a problem, but another to devise an appropriate solution. The truth is that the US Military isn't really the right tool for the job, at least in Nigeria.

Nigeria needs a few things (a) Capacity building for the security services (primarily the police) (b) economic transformation (c) political settlement and (d) intelligence gathering to deal with the threats of insurgency.

Boko Haram is really a police problem, not a military problem. Nigeria has close to 400,000 police officers. So if our police were remotely competent, it would be quite easy to root out BH. The problem is that they are not.

The Nigerian police is managed centrally by the Federal Government and recruitment and training is carried out by the center. The result is that many policemen in say, Kano, don't speak the local language. This hampers the ability to gather intelligence and reduces effectiveness.

This has been pointed out severally - localise the police, replace central policing with community based policing, but evidently, the political will is lacking.

This is the first thing that needs to be done before we get to the issue to remuneration, conditions of service, training and equipment.

It's low hanging fruit but nobody wants to do it - BH may force the government's hand though.

This isn't really AFRICOM's gig.

Economic transformation isn't AFRICOM's thing either and the experience of the past fifty years shows that good intentions aren't a substitute for competence (USAID, DFID, World Bank please take note). The only thing that is going to make this happen is when the ruling class see it in their interest to build roads, improve access to education and water and not merely steal funds.

You couldn't get Mobutu to see need for this (even on the pain of death) and it is going to take a genuine religious conversion for Mugabe to see the logic, but for some reason Kibaki, Kagame, Zenawi and Museveni (albeit reluctantly) are doing something about this. Only God knows what will get the ruling class in Nigeria to see reason, but we are still hopeful.

Political settlement: there is a political component to the whole BH saga and it needs to be resolved. The North feels aggrieved, but it needs to be "settled" in a way that doesn't create a backlash in the South. Jonathan won by capturing four out of the six geo-political zones (Niger Delta, South-East, South-West and the Middle Belt). The North-East and North-West is pissed off with him.

Can Jonathan win the next round of elections without the support of the North-East and North-West? Yes, but he needs to do something to keep the peace in the North-East and North-West.

Finally this is what Tom Barnett said recently about AFRICOM:

Africa may be booming right now, but to the extent that any of us recognize that, it just becomes the excuse to finally indulge our long-standing compassion fatigue regarding the seemingly nonstop series of internal wars, famines and epidemics that continue to plague the continent. That strategically shortsighted view is reflected in the U.S. military’s recently established Africa Command, whose marching orders might as well be to make sure what happens in Africa stays in Africa.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11598/the-new-rules-a-positive-narrative-for-u-s-foreign-policy