'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Dayuhan]

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?

I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

There's a third plausible scenario, of course: stalemate, with recurring outbreaks of sectarian violence but neither side able to gain a decisive victory.

A fourth scenario would be to have the government apply sufficient force to suppress BH, then follow up with a large scale investment program designed to undermine support for radical movements. Guess that's not too plausible.

I'll be curious to see how BH evolves, assuming they're successful with initial objectives. If they do succeed in kicking off a full-blown insurgency or sectarian conflict, they will have to evolve into a more overtly political movement, or else a parallel political movement may emerge and eclipse them. Will BH morph into a Nigerian version of the Muslim Brotherhood?

A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?

[Chowing]

Yes, BH claimed the reason why "Western" schools are being attacked is because madrassas were attacked by security services (that sounds plausible).

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?

Number 1 seems extremely improbable. It will take some real "conversion" by BH to begin to think about the Northerners children. The Northerners themselves are being led by the elite who back BH. As you have said before it will take a reworking of the police force to run BH out of town. Given their present momentum and police ineffectiveness, I do not see number 1 happening.

In fact as the security forces fight back it seems to be giving BH more incentive, provocation, and rhetoric for recruitment, which all lead to number 2, in some shape of form. Which I could be more optimistic, but I do not see any solution until things become a whole lot worse.

One thing that has been left out of these scenarios is some outside intervention or activity. I no longer see the US military as taking any action, but I do see growing chances the al-Qaeda or the greater jihadist movement moving in, if only in a small, effectual manner. The always come in where chaos already exists, often letting some other entity draw most the heat like Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan and al-Shabaab in Somalia.

What do they have to gain? Training ground and a place to hide.

[Chowing]

I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?

I think this a chief reason the Northern elites are backing BH. They are letting them be the muscle and do the dirty work. Once BH agitates enough, the elite, with somewhat cleaner robes can step in and either campaign for an independent north or become major players in some sort of reform. I doubt that BH is savvy or wise enough to become a political player. The elites most likely understand this.

Don't get me wrong the people in the north do have some genuine grievances, but as is often the case, those who have some power (like the northern elite) use the grievances or plight of the greater populous to consolidate and even increase their own power.

[Stan]

BH often seems to describe their attacks as responses to some provocation... not saying they necessarily are, but BH seems to want to claim they are. Is it possible that targets are in some cases selected according to the nature of what they want to claim as provocation... e.g. attacks on schools selected as a "response" to raids on madrassas? In that case the strategic value of the terget would be less a consideration than the extent to which it reinforces the perception of provocation.

Hmmm, good point !
That BH is following some USG think tank's logical path could just be coincidence, and, that they seem to often conclude that they were provoked into doing "said" is a little foggy. If they are simply doing a quid pro quo, they've gone a little over the top (but I guess rational thinking is not part of their repertoire).


Yes, BH claimed the reason why "Western" schools are being attacked is because madrassas were attacked by security services (that sounds plausible).

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?

I also see a stalemate. one or 2 thousand people are not turning 80 million Muslims into fanatical terrorists with anyone's help, and they are not overrunning 80 million Christians anywhere. As pathetic as the security services and military are, eventually things are going to change. Johnathan is not some uneducated dictator and will be seeking assistance abroad.

[KingJaja]

I think this a chief reason the Northern elites are backing BH. They are letting them be the muscle and do the dirty work. Once BH agitates enough, the elite, with somewhat cleaner robes can step in and either campaign for an independent north or become major players in some sort of reform. I doubt that BH is savvy or wise enough to become a political player. The elites most likely understand this.

Don't get me wrong the people in the north do have some genuine grievances, but as is often the case, those who have some power (like the northern elite) use the grievances or plight of the greater populous to consolidate and even increase their own power.

They are already doing that. Read this:


Northern governors will engage stakeholders in pressing for a review of the revenue allocation formula to attain some level of equity for the overall development of the country, Niger State Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu has said.

Aliyu, who is chairman of the Northern Governors' Forum, said the federal revenue allocation formula was heavily lopsided against northern states such that "some states are not doing well while others are doing extremely well."

The governor spoke in Abuja at the inauguration of a 12-member Advisory Council of the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation.

He said revenues from continental shelf oil which ought to be for the entire country were being treated as coming from littoral states, thereby entitling those states to royalties and derivation.

This is happening against the backdrop of what he called the "grave" situation in the North "where illiteracy, poverty, ignorance and general backwardness are on the rise in the face of unfavourable federation allocation structure in which the northern states are at great disadvantage."

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202240338.html

If you don't understand the political economy of Nigeria, you'll immediately jump to the conclusion that these guys have a point. The truth is a little bit more complicated than that. They have wasted no time to jump on the BH bandwagon to demand more money from the center!

As expected, the South has responded, telling them they are talking nonsense!


LAGOS— Governor Theodore Orji of Abia State joined elders and youths of the Niger Delta yesterday in dismissing demands by northern Governors for the scrapping of the derivation principle in revenue allocation just as it emerged that the restoration of peace to the Niger Delta has led to a daily increase of N34 billion into the federal treasury.

Noting that the Niger Delta region was today getting 100% of the pollution and other incidental damages associated with oil exploitation, the stakeholders from the region said it was unrealistic for the North to look at the benefits to the oil producing region without considering the negatives.

Among those who also rebuffed the demand were elder statesman and second republic Senator, Obi Nosike Ikpo; defunct Biafra warlord, Chief Joseph Achuzia; Leader of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP), Ledum Mitee and Presidential Adviser on the Amnesty Programme, Mr. Kingsley Kuku.

Answering questions from journalists in Abuja, Orji urged the leaders of the northern states to look inwards and develop resources in the north, saying that the North has been favoured in the sharing over the years.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/03/derivation-why-north-cant-get-more-money/

The North has also gotten an ex-US ambassador and CFR fellow to boot to push their case. Read this:


In addition, the Obama administration should engage in targeted outreach to Nigerian Muslims. To begin, it should treat Muhammadu Buhari, the most credible opposition leader in Nigeria, as it does the leaders of the opposition in other friendly states. He should be publicly received in Washington at an appropriately high level. Despite the costs and risks, the United States should proceed to establish a consulate in Kano, the metropolis and cultural center of the Islamic North, where it can build a stronger relationship with a region that has received too little Western attention in the past.

http://nationalinterest.org/article/nigerias-battle-stability-6514?page=show

John Campbell is a very smart man and he crafted a very sophisticated analysis of the situation in Nigeria. He crafted it in such a way as to obscure the fact that he has a Northern bias (he actually has Northern Nigerian paymasters). What he is advocating in this paragraph is essentially that the Obama administration should take sides in religious war in Northern Nigeria and help revitalize Buhari's party (the CPC) which actually isn't the largest party in opposition.

He wants the US to insert itself into the ethno-religious politics of Nigeria. It is extremely unwise to suggest so.

For a more reasoned and balanced critique of leadership in Northern Nigeria, please read this:
http://zainabusman.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/a-people-in-terminal-decline/

[Chowing]

From your link Kingjaja, http://zainabusman.wordpress.com/201...minal-decline/

The most obvious problem is the serious leadership deficit in the North which became magnified before and after the 2011 general elections. There is almost a general consensus that Northerners who were at the helms of affairs in the country for several decades did little to better the life of ordinary people in the region in terms of provision of healthcare, education and other infrastructure, direction of useful investments and creation of economic opportunities for the population. The leaders are seen to have enriched themselves and their cronies while using an adept mixture of religion and ethnicity to keep people subjugated in the shackles of illiteracy, ignorance, poverty, and misery. Few leaders have utilized accumulated wealth towards establishing profitable enterprises that employ people, philanthropic organizations that empower others or other productive ends. Rather accumulated wealth is squandered in consumerist behaviour, in opulence in the midst of absolute and abject poverty. Interesting exposs on the leadership deficit have been written by analysts such as Dr. Hakeem Baba Ahmed and the columnist Adamu Adamu amongst several others.

According to this article the elites may be backing BH, but these elites have little following among the northern populous. Kingjaja, does this ring true to you. Do many northerners see BH as a better alternative to work towards their betterment than both the northern elite and the central government?


While the deficit of transformational leadership is not exclusively a Northern phenomenon, it is more magnified in the North. It is these leaders who are perceived by many to have sold out the north during the 2011 elections hence the rampage of the youths against various emirs, a former speaker of the House of Representatives amongst others. Consequently traditional, religious and political leaders who used to command tremendous respect from people have lost their credibility, and to an extent legitimacy to speak on behalf of the people. Certain enigmatic geniuses have been de-robed of their toga of mystique. The people in turn are plagued by frustration, helplessness and hopelessness in the wake of un-inspiring leadership.

If this author is anywhere near correct, no wonder BH seem to be able to stike, run-and-hind, and blend in with the populous. They feel let down by everyone around them. Even if they do not like the violence, they may see it has their only alternative to be heard, so they see BH as their advocate.

So, if the northern elite do go to the negotiation tables, will the northern poor follow? My guess is that they will follow wherever one makes the best case for hope.

[KingJaja]

Chowing,

These Northern rulers (ruled Nigeria for 38 years) never bothered for the support of Northern masses. They merely proclaimed themselves as leaders of the North and did whatever they wished to do.

Part of the blame lies in the British who largely left a feudal system intact (and in some cases expanded it - Muslim aristocrats were put in charge of non-Muslim peoples). The South was administered much differently.

(You can see parallels in Pakistan where the feudal system was untouched - Benazir Bhutto was a scion of one of the largest land-owning families. Wisely, India did away with the power of the Maharajahs after independence).

The sad truth is that Northern leadership is not really interested in improving educational and quality of life indices in Northern Nigeria - they don't want people challenging the status quo. (It is easier to bribe and rig elections when the population is poor and uninformed).

The appeal of Boko Haram to the poor is that it offers a vehicle to vent long suppressed frustrations on the Northern elite. On the other hand, BH has an appeal to the Northern elite - they can use it to demand for more resources from the centre (which of course will be squandered).

No one in the Northern elite really speaks for the masses and that is the problem.

However, there is nothing really to negotiate. BH's demands are unrealistic. What is sorely needed is competent administration at the local level and the Northern elite seems incapable or unwilling to offer it.

The North is gradually accepting the necessity of greater devolution of powers from the center and is opening up to the need for a conference to discuss the future of the Nigerian state.

Yes, what she wrote is 99 pc correct.

[KingJaja]

Please read this (and read it with a pinch of salt, this is from a Southern paper). Sometimes it is helpful to view Nigeria as a collection of people who have nothing in common, whose only purpose for congregating is to share the proceeds from the sale of crude oil.


Events appear to be moving too fast for Nigeria and they are frightening.With bombings and other first grade violence becoming very routine in the country, it would appear very instructive that leaders of ethnic nationalities and regions are digging in for an epic show of brain and brawn.

At one point or the other, key leaders of the Nigerian federation have had cause to regret the ethnic configuration of the nation and queried its existence ab initio. Chief Obafemi Awolowo described it as a “mere geographical expression” just as Sir Ahmadu Bello said Nigeria is “the mistake of 1914.” Even civil war hero, Brigadier General Benjamin Adekunle regretted fighting for one united Nigeria. In an article published in the 6 July,1996 edition of Weekend Concord, Adekunle declared that he regretted killing Ibos to keep Nigeria one. “Looking back at what has been happening in this country since the days of Babangida, one cannot but be sad. Personally now and for sometime, I feel so ashamed to have killed people to sustain the unity of Nigeria. I feel so sad to have shed blood for the unity of Nigeria.”

A combination of the Yoruba and Niger Delta leaders recently met in Ikenne, Ogun State under the leadership of Chief (Mrs) HID Awolowo and asked for a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) to discuss the nation’s over-ripe problems. They followed it up a few weeks ago with a presentation of the demand to President Goodluck Jonathan in Abuja.Very interestingly, Northern Nigeria, which had always opposed such calls, joined the fray last week with its leaders saying they were ready for the talks. What has informed this sudden confidence of the North in the SNC? If the talks hold as expressed, what are the questions it will answer? Is Nigeria inexorably going to pieces as predicted by certain western figures? Are the current security and political problems ravaging Nigeria a product of some off-shore conspiracy coordinated by powerful nations outside Africa?

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/component/content/article/140-the-friday-edition/36920-p-r-o-l-o-g-u-enigeria-fighting-the-last-battle

[Dayuhan]

Are the current security and political problems ravaging Nigeria a product of some off-shore conspiracy coordinated by powerful nations outside Africa?

Paranoid fantasy, but many will believe it. Always useful to be able to blame awful conditions on some malevolent outside force.

[KingJaja]

Paranoid fantasy, but many will believe it. Always useful to be able to blame awful conditions on some malevolent outside force.

Not so paranoid when you consider that there is enough circumstantial evidence to show that Shell was complicit in the murder of prominent Niger Delta activists, but paranoid all the same.

The default position for most Western diplomats and academics is to absolve Islam / Muslims of blame. This is usually dismissed to "liberal brain washing" in the States, but in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society like Nigeria it is seen as the latest evidence that the West favours Northern Muslims over the rest of the nation.

This perception has very deep roots (started when the British created the Nigerian Army almost exclusively from one tribe in the Muslim North about a hundred years ago).

Paranoid, but not completely illogical.

[Dayuhan]

Not so paranoid when you consider that there is enough circumstantial evidence to show that Shell was complicit in the murder of prominent Niger Delta activists, but paranoid all the same.

There are obvious reasons why an oil company would want to dispose of activists seeking greater local control of oil production. What reason would anyone in the west have to support a radical Islamic group with AQ links. The typical Western reaction to those is knee-jerk horror.


The default position for most Western diplomats and academics is to absolve Islam / Muslims of blame. This is usually dismissed to "liberal brain washing" in the States, but in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society like Nigeria it is seen as the latest evidence that the West favours Northern Muslims over the rest of the nation.

First off, the US or "The West" have no business assigning blame or taking sides in an internal Nigerian conflict.

The idea that the US or "The West" is somehow pro-Muslim is a bit startling, and you'd certainly have a hard time convincing any Muslims that this is the case. There's a bit of neutralist academic/diplomatic blather, but that's not much more than a tepid and generally ineffective attempt to counter the prevailing belief that the US is violently and absolutely anti-Muslim.

Even beyond the reality that the US has no business assigning blame in other people's conflicts, it would be silly to lay blame for BH (or AQ, or anyone else) on "Islam" or "Muslims" generically. Focus on the target, no use in dissipating resources fighting those you don't have to fight.

A reasonable desire to avoid any involvement in a conflict that is manifestly none of our business should not be interpreted as support for any side.

[KingJaja]

A reasonable desire to avoid any involvement in a conflict that is manifestly none of our business should not be interpreted as support for any side.

Then how do you explain the vocal opposition to anti-homosexual laws in predominantly Christian Sub-Saharan African countries? How do you explain the fact that Obama and Cameron have expended political capital on this issue and have made it central to the US and the UK's Africa policy.

African Christians are not dumb, they know these policies target Christian nations like Kenya, Zambia and Uganda. Meanwhile, Muslim nations with even worse laws under Sharia will get a free pass.

I am not saying that the perception is warranted, but please understand where the perceptions are coming from.

[Dayuhan]

Then how do you explain the vocal opposition to anti-homosexual laws in predominantly Christian Sub-Saharan African countries? How do you explain the fact that Obama and Cameron have expended political capital on this issue and have made it central to the US and the UK's Africa policy.

African Christians are not dumb, they know these policies target Christian nations like Kenya, Zambia and Uganda. Meanwhile, Muslim nations with even worse laws under Sharia will get a free pass.

The words in question - there are no policies, only words - do not "target" anyone in Africa, they target a domestic voting bloc. Everybody in Africa will get "a free pass" because the words will never be translated to meaningful action.

[KingJaja]

The words in question - there are no policies, only words - do not "target" anyone in Africa, they target a domestic voting bloc. Everybody in Africa will get "a free pass" because the words will never be translated to meaningful action.

Words actually do matter, even if they don't matter Western politicians. If you read or heard the feedback from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa over these words, you'll understand what I am talking about.

This the same way American politicians (especially of the Republican persuasion) believe that their almost Pavlovian response in support of Israel has no impact whatsoever on America's Middle East policy or America's perception in the Muslim World. After all, the only thing that matters is the Evangelical and Jewish vote.

You warn them about the consequences and then they'll tell you "we'll merely build an embassy the size of the Vatican in Iraq and we'll double our aid commitments to Africa and all will be well".

The US is still the most influential player in World politics, but the US is fast becoming the "first among equals" not the "hyper-power" it was a mere fifteen years ago (at the height of the Clinton era). Unfortunately, American politicians have not woken up to this reality.

Look at Iran and how India is openly defying the US on embargoing Iranian fuel imports. For the US to successfully disengage from Afghanistan, it needs the cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan, Russia and China.

[Ken White]

This the same way American politicians (especially of the Republican persuasion) believe that their almost Pavlovian response in support of Israel has no impact whatsoever on America's Middle East policy or America's perception in the Muslim World. After all, the only thing that matters is the Evangelical and Jewish vote.You are aware that Harry Truman was the President who recognized Israel, Kennedy arguably encouraged their nuclear program, Lyndon Johnson the one who first provided unfettered and massive support and Jimmy Carter was the one who eased Egypt out of the 'get Israel' camp at least temporarily? Democrats all... :D

And yes, as I and others have often noted, rightly or wrongly, US foreign policy is driven by US domestic politics. Always has been and always will be. Instead of bemoaning that fact, scholars and others should imitate some of the smarter nations who have figured that out and react accordingly...
The US is still the most influential player in World politics, but the US is fast becoming the "first among equals" not the "hyper-power" it was a mere fifteen years ago (at the height of the Clinton era). Unfortunately, American politicians have not woken up to this reality.Four points:

- The US is influential due to its wealth and not to possession of any great acumen or morality. That it is most influential is often a perception issue and is also very much situation or circumstances dependent. Other nations can and do often eclipse the US on selected issues. That is and has always been true.

- US power was at its height in 1945. It has been declining in uneven and not orderly spurts ever since. The 1990s were absolutely not a high point though the indicators were indeed higher then than they now are. The decline will continue because the world has and is changing in accordance with the times -- as is always true. Nations are not people but age and events change both.

- No "hyper power" has ever dominated the world stage for long and none is likely to do so, the pressure of other nations to lessen that power will always insure that is the case. That apparent extent of US power in the 90s was due in part to then prevalent economic realities and some judicious exploitation by the US at the time; we got caught, other nations took steps to lessen our ability and our ponderous decline resumes. That 'power ' was greater in the 80s, still greater in the 60s and greatest in the early 50s; been generally downhill since then. Way of the world... :cool:

- Politicians (most, anyway...) have awakened to this phenomenon. However, as they are prone to do, they're fighting hard to maintain the status quo. They will lose that fight, they always do even though they always seems to resist to the point of absurdity. Perhaps that's because politicians are generally absurd... :wry:
Look at Iran and how India is openly defying the US on embargoing Iranian fuel imports. For the US to successfully disengage from Afghanistan, it needs the cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan, Russia and China.Re: India; so what? They want to do something, we voice objections, they do it anyway and we do nothing about that. Both nations are simply acting in their own interest. We have no particular right to dictate to India or any other nation.

Re: Afghanistan; define successfully... :wry:

[KingJaja]

You are aware that Harry Truman was the President who recognized Israel, Kennedy arguably encouraged their nuclear program, Lyndon Johnson the one who first provided unfettered and massive support and Jimmy Carter was the one who eased Egypt out of the 'get Israel' camp at least temporarily? Democrats all...

And yes, as I and others have often noted, rightly or wrongly, US foreign policy is driven by US domestic politics. Always has been and always will be. Instead of bemoaning that fact, scholars and others should imitate some of the smarter nations who have figured that out and react accordingly...

I am aware of all that. But Republicans have taken this a step further, the relationship with Israel seems to be less governed by logic than by the Book of Revelations. The atmosphere that has existed since the second Bush presidency makes it impossible for the US to be seen as an honest broker in the Middle East peace process.

Obama gave a wonderful speech in Cairo in 2009 and Netanyahu (and the Republicans) did their best to frustrate his efforts.


Re: Afghanistan; define successfully...

A successful exit from Afghanistan means leaving behind an Afghanistan in which the Taliban will be accommodated in power and in which a resurgence of Al Qaeda is impossible.

India, Iran and the US have a mutual dislike of the Taliban. Somehow the US believes that an alliance of Americans and Europeans are best placed to deal with the Taliban - there's ten years of experience to prove that assertion wrong. Yet nobody seems to be listening.

On the other hand, Pakistan and China want to hedge against India and ensure that both Iran and India do not exert undue influence in Afghanistan. So the US should strive to create a balance of power between these rival nations as all these nations are motivated enough to keep the status quo.

Alternatively, the US could just pack its bags and leave Afghanistan and let Pakistan, Iran, India, China and the Russians deal with them - it's their problem.

[Ken White]

...The atmosphere that has existed since the second Bush presidency makes it impossible for the US to be seen as an honest broker in the Middle East peace process.It's been impossible since 1967.

Don't pay too much attention to what you see or read in US Media -- most here do not...
Obama gave a wonderful speech in Cairo in 2009 and Netanyahu (and the Republicans) did their best to frustrate his efforts.Good politicians always give wonderful speeches. They rarely follow through on them as reality intrudes.

Just as Obama stated American interests as he saw them, Netanyahu has Israeli interests as he sees them to consider. That's not going to be reconciled.

The Republicans are far less concerned with Israel or the ME than they are with just being obstacles to anything Obama wants to do in the US (primarily and elsewhere secondarily...). :rolleyes:
A successful exit from Afghanistan means leaving behind an Afghanistan in which the Taliban will be accommodated in power and in which a resurgence of Al Qaeda is impossible.That was never a possibility even though many in the rather inept US foreign policy elite thought it could be done.
India, Iran and the US have a mutual dislike of the Taliban. Somehow the US believes ...there's ten years of experience to prove that assertion wrong. Yet nobody seems to be listening ... ]On the other hand ... Alternatively, the US could just pack its bags and leave Afghanistan and let Pakistan, Iran, India, China and the Russians deal with them - it's their problem.Yes. That about sums it up. See my comment just above. We were never going to change that dynamic. Can't change the neighborhood if you don't live there

And that applies whether one is American, Chinese, Indian, African, etc. etc. ... :wry:

[Dayuhan]

Words actually do matter, even if they don't matter Western politicians. If you read or heard the feedback from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa over these words, you'll understand what I am talking about.

I really don't think they care very much. They're worried about scoring points with a domestic audience, and public opinion in SSA is not high on the list of priorities for American (or British, German, or French) politicians. Ugandans don't vote in their elections.


You warn them about the consequences and then they'll tell you "we'll merely build an embassy the size of the Vatican in Iraq and we'll double our aid commitments to Africa and all will be well".

Aid commitments to Africa aren't designed to help Africa or achieve popularity in Africa, they're designed to make Americans feel charitable and feel good about themselves. What consequences are there in SSA that matter to Americans?

I'm sure there are people who will look at the pious verbiage about homophobia in Uganda and somehow conclude that the US is supporting Boko Haram... but really, is it worth trying to persuade anyone capable of stretching reality to that extent? People will believe what they will.

[KingJaja]

I really don't think they care very much. They're worried about scoring points with a domestic audience, and public opinion in SSA is not high on the list of priorities for American (or British, German, or French) politicians. Ugandans don't vote in their elections.



Aid commitments to Africa aren't designed to help Africa or achieve popularity in Africa, they're designed to make Americans feel charitable and feel good about themselves. What consequences are there in SSA that matter to Americans?

I'm sure there are people who will look at the pious verbiage about homophobia in Uganda and somehow conclude that the US is supporting Boko Haram... but really, is it worth trying to persuade anyone capable of stretching reality to that extent? People will believe what they will.

That's not the impression I got from listening to a US House of Rep hearing. They expressed shock that Africans haven't fallen in love with the US given the large amounts of aid poured there.

[KingJaja]

There is real anger about the heavy handedness of the Nigerian Military. Let's pray it doesn't transform into something else.


KANO, Nigeria — An irate mob lit bonfires and marched through the Nigerian city of Kano to protest the alleged shooting to death of a motorcyclist on Sunday by troops deployed to counter Boko Haram Islamists.
Mustapha Sani, 25, was shot in the head and chest by soldiers at a checkpoint outside a bus terminus, witnesses said.
Around 100 protesters took over the Silver Jubilee roundabout in the centre of the northern city and marched through the streets, burning tyres and pelting soldiers with stones, an AFP reporter saw.
They called for the dismantling of military checkpoints in the city.
The soldiers made no attempt to stop the protesters.
"This lawlessness is getting out of hand, we are tired of soldiers and policemen killing and molesting innocent residents they are deployed to protect," a protester who gave his name as Haruna said.
"We live between the fear of Boko Haram attack and military and police bullets, it is unbearable," said Laminu Zakari, another protester.
The soldiers manning the checkpoints drove off in two military vans to avoid clashes.
Residents have complained of harassment and extortion by security personnel at checkpoints that dot the city following the January 20 coordinated Boko Haram bomb and gun attacks that killed 185 people.
Military authorities in Kano were not available for comment as the spokesman of the special military unit in the city did not respond to inquiries by reporters.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jxF-qTKhdVHWVRV9mJ7IL8umVKMQ?docId=CNG.bfc13b02846fd2f daa072f8142c07d80.221

[KingJaja]

These are the entrance exams into Nigerian universities - the impact of a lack of security. If Boko Haram persists, the impact on the education of kids in North East Nigeria will be felt for years.


JAMB Registrar, Prof Dibu Ojerinde, while speaking at the 58th National Council on Education (NEC) meeting on Friday in Abuja announced that there will be no Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) in the volatile states in northern Nigeria.
Prof. Ojerinde stated that the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) will be forced to cancel the examination if the Boko Haram attack on primary and secondary schools in Borno State continues.
“When we reviewed the situation in volatile states, for instance Borno, we realised that some of the schools are being bombed but our investigations showed that only primary schools are affected and not secondary schools.
“The board will be left with no option than to tell the candidates to go elsewhere to write the exams if schools which serve as centres are attacked,’’ The JAMB Registrar said.
The registrar regretted that the development could be quite unfortunate for the students.
Prof. Ojerinde disclosed that the board had increased the number of examination towns from 328 to 379 while the number of centres also increased from 2,872 to 3,052.
He said that the teething problem that greeted the use of biometric data machines in 2011 had been addressed, adding that the biometric machines would take only 30 to 40 minutes to verify the entire 540 candidates registered for a centre.
Boko Haram had on Feb. 28, attacked four primary schools in Maiduguri, setting the Gomari Costain Primary School and a section of the Maiduguri Experimental School, Kawanar on fire.
They also set ablaze Budum Kulo Gomna Primiary Schools and Abba Ganaram Primary School also in Maiduguri.

http://www.informationnigeria.org/2012/03/boko-haram-jamb-may-cancel-utme-exams-in-affected-northern-states.html

[Dayuhan]

That's not the impression I got from listening to a US House of Rep hearing. They expressed shock that Africans haven't fallen in love with the US given the large amounts of aid poured there.

Never listen to US Congressional hearings. For most of those in attendance the first thought they'd given to the subject in the past year was probably on the way to the hearing when they read the staff briefing and frantically tried to come up with a soundbite.

Don't listen to words, watch the actions, observe the flow of money and resources, and you get some idea of what the priorities are. Of course in an event devoted to aid policy (or aid budgets) or Africa policy they will try to pretend they can find these countries on a map, and try to say something that the constituents can identify with. How many hours a year do you really think they spend thinking about these topics?

[KingJaja]

This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.


U.S. Under-Secretary for Political Affairs, Amb. Wendy Sherman, says the US will open a consulate in Kano to further strengthen bilateral relations with Nigeria.

Sherman announced this on Monday in an interview with newsmen after a brief meeting in Abuja with the Minister of State, Foreign Affairs, Prof. Voila Onwulere. ``I am absolutely delighted to be here in Nigeria; the real focus of our deliberation is on the strength of our bilateral relations, as the U.S. and Nigeria are partners on Bi-National Commission (BNC). ``The Minister and I have discussed what we will do to ensure security, peace and democracy in Africa,’’ she said.

The embassy has an office in Lagos and also operates American Corner, a nationwide information service centre. Sherman said the additional consulate which would be opened in partnership with Nigeria, would further buttress the strength of bilateral relations between both nations.

According to her, the U.S. will continue to assist Nigeria to deal with its security challenges and support Nigeria in any way possible to deal with any threat. In her remark, Onwulere said the regular visits of top U.S. officials to the country in recent times were evidences of the cordial relations both nations enjoyed. ``There hasn’t been a time that our bilateral relations are stronger than this; it takes countries with similar ideas to come together for a common cause. ``This visit underscores the strength of those relations, and we also exchanged messages from our presidents. ``We talked about key position of Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda, so these visits signal greater things to come not just in Nigeria but globally,’’ Onwulere said. The BNC was established in 2010 to among other things promote good governance, regional security and tackle corruption.

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/latest/33955-us-to-open-consulate-in-kano-envoy

[KingJaja]

Interesting.


The recent Boko Haram onslaught on schools in Borno State is a reprisal against the continued attacks on Tsangaya (Islamiyya) schools and the arrest of clerics by security agents, the group’s spokesperson, Abul-Qaqa, has said.
Qaqa, in an E-mailed response to questions from newsmen in Maiduguri, said, “We warned that security agents must stop attacking and arresting clerics in Tsangaya (Islamiyya) schools but nobody took our warning seriously.

“They continued arresting Islamic teachers and that is why we resolve to continue attacking public schools. Certainly, if Qur’anic education will not be allowed to continue, then secular and western education will not continue also,” he said, noting that Islamic scholars were arrested at Bulabulin and Jajeri in Maiduguri metropolis.

And when told that thousands of children were now missing classes because of the assault, Qaqa said, “We are not worried because what goes around comes around. Governments at all levels were not concerned with the fact that thousands of Muslim children have been forced to stop learning Qur’anic education in Tsangaya schools.

On the attacks on places of worship especially churches, he said that the recent arrest of Christians while attempting to bomb a church in Bauchi State was a clear indication of the plot by security operatives to instigate violence. He alleged that the church would-be-bombers were planted by security operatives in order to create false alarm.

“There is grand conspiracy in respect of the Christians that have been arrested while trying to detonate bombs in some churches. This is a script crafted by the state security service (SSS) in other to confuse people and convince other Muslims not to believe in what we are doing.

“Agents of the SSS have been doing this for a very long time. They want the world to believe that we are attacking everybody but they would not succeed, by the grace of Allah,” he said.

“We are attacking churches on retaliatory mission because Christians have burnt countless mosques in this country,” Qaqa said.

Qaqa also debunked claims that his group was not waging a Jihad, but working for some individuals that wanted to dismember Nigeria.

Asked when the group will seize fire, Qaqa said, “We have warned severally that we would continue launching attacks until our members are released. Unfortunately however, the trend of the arrest has been extended to our wives and children. We would soon start kidnapping the wives and children of all the people that have hands in the arrest of our wives and children.”

http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=156311:why-we-attacked-schools-boko-haram-&catid=1:news&Itemid=2

[Stan]

This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.



Jaja,
Before we go overboard on the consulate in Kano, a few salient points:

The jargon is pure State BS that they say all the time.

Opening a consulate in a large country like in Zaire and now in Nigeria has more to do with providing easier access to counselor services to both Americans and Nigerians that live and work far from the US Embassy.

Reading into this is a fool's game.

On the other hand, your police and security services should indeed take advantage of using the consulate as a conduit.

As to who actually works in that consulate ... I haven't the foggiest idea :eek:

[Stan]

Interesting.



... He alleged that the church would-be-bombers were planted by security operatives in order to create false alarm.

This sadly is the norm in my part of Africa. This would account for the lack of deaths and collateral damage too. But, that's pure speculation.

This is where post blast forensics shine. It would have been obvious who did what to whom and with what.

The remainder of the article seems to say nothing about a Jihad.

[Dayuhan]

This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.

The State Dept can't change policy toward Israel or toward Arab regimes... and the degree to which the latter depend on US support is consistently overrated. They can only do what they can with the limited options they've got. Generally that comes down to making empty gestures and saying empty words.

I'm curious, though... how large an issue is Israel to Nigerian Muslims? I ask because in SE Asia the Muslims, even the militant ones, really don't care; it's local issues that get them fired up.

[KingJaja]

Muslims in Nigeria tend to follow what is going on in Israel and the wider Middle East pretty closely. We've had violent riots against the Dutch cartoons (15 dead) and US war on Afghanistan (several dead). Recently, the presence of an Israeli "security expert" at a Middle Belt (read Northern Christian organized) security conference drew a lot of controversy.

Having said that, all it takes is one hot head. Nigeria has far too many poor, hungry, unemployed Muslim youth.

Finally, there isn't one "Muslim population in Nigeria". The Muslim population that should be of interest to the West is the population in the far North. They tend to be more fundamentalist, less educated and more prone to violence.

[davidbfpo]

A bout of UK and I expect Italian media attention after a failed hostage rescue in Sokoto, which aimed to release two civil engineers:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/9132481/British-hostage-killed-in-failed-SBS-rescue-bid.html

Amidst the official briefings it remains unclear whether the Nigerians were the "hard edge" or whether the British SBS (part of UK Special Forces) were alongside them.

[KingJaja]

I doubt Nigerians were the "hard edge". There is little motivation for Nigeria forces to mount an operation like that and the Nigerian security services have a very cavalier approach to human life.

[Dayuhan]

How do people feel about a foreign unit conducting armed operations on Nigerian soil? In a lot of places that would be a real hot button issue...

[KingJaja]

Some feel unhappy that the Nigerian government seems to value foreign lives much more than Nigerian lives. This is a very sore point.

There isn't much sympathy for the deaths of the two hostages because according to some "the British government and Shell weren't in the least bit bothered when they colluded with the Nigerian government to murder hundreds of Nigerians in the Niger Delta".

There is also a little bit of "serves them right". That "Cameron thinks he still is the colonial master of Nigeria and even though he can snap his fingers and get the Nigerian government to do his bidding. Great, even your much vaunted special forces couldn't do this right".

How does this impact on the average Nigerian? Does it make the Nigerian government more likely to intervene to save Nigerian lives? No. Does it cement the already widespread suspicion of Western control over our government? Yes. Does this play well in Nigeria's restive North? I doubt it.

This event in itself has little impact on the security situation in Northern Nigeria. It was a given that the British and Americans would want to do some special ops, but even if those special ops were successful, the impact on the security and safety of Nigerians would be zero. So why should we (Nigerians) be bothered?

There is also a vocal element in the South that rub their hands in glee at the latest misfortune in the North. The Nigerian society is rapidly unraveling and Nigeria is less of united nation than it was ten years ago.

[KingJaja]

A peek into how Nigerians see the botched raid.


Not good for our National image.


Just heard that bast.ard 'Cameron' say he authorised an operation on Nigerian soil - Fc.uk him

How dare he?

He must think Nigeria is Ireland or Scotland.

Boko - Well done on this occassion.

Boko Haram (1) - SAS/SSS - (Nil)


@faithin9ja

Who are you and where are you from to refer to Nigeria as "your"?

If you're not Nigeria, why can't take your silly story to poundland.com or dailymail.co.uk?!? The honest truth is that, no one in Nigeria cares about this non-story. R.I.P to the dead - but Nigerians could give two fu.cks about this news. If the same British didn't make the North as powerful as it is today - maybe this would never have happened.

Now, crawl back to your hole and change your name to "fathinUKaAaClownB4BnpGetsMe."


I hope the Boko Haram also killed the members of British Special Forces involved in the rescue operation.


Listen mate, R.I.P to the dead - but you don't expect Nigerians to leave what they're doing because a "white" guy was held hostage in the middle of nowhere - just as no British guy would gives a phuck when Shell was destroying Niger/Delta and the innocent people were dying of hunger.


So who are they building the so-called central bank for and how's that going to benefit the people of Birni Kebbi?? I guess the Rothschild - so let them go sort themselves out.

If David Cameron has publicly said "the British government do not pay ransom" - that's his cup of tea, and I'll send him some crumpets via royalmail for a good lunch. This isn't the 19th century and the era of the British Empire where you go about invading other country's sovereignty - you've to play "ball" if you're caught off guard. Play "ball" doesn't mean you're weak (which the UK is right now) - but it will save the lives of innocent people.


Whether they are Nigerians or Chinese the point is - How dare Cameron sanction such an operation on Nigerian Soil?

And why would he be the one who can authorise such an operation - Is GEJ taking orders from him?

The West seem to think they can go where they want, when they want and do what they want.


You can see clearly there that they didn't inform the Italians before they went ahead with the rescue operation. That shows the arrogance of David Cameron - and silly Nigerians are quick to blame Nigeria for the botched rescue stupidity. I doubt even clueless Goodluck Jonathan knew about it - he probably gave the dumb press conference to make his masters happy.


I'm neither a conspiracy theorist nor a Northerner - I'm a proud Yoruba Christian (if growing up in the church applies) - and I abhor every form of terrorism. Y'all can take this lightly and think it's a Northern agenda - but it's far from it. Everything looks like it's scripted, and the scramble for Africa and oil is on. We suddenly realized some KONY guy in Uganda yesterday after 20years of terror - because oil has been discovered in Uganda. Last month was all about Somalia - which they never cared about since 2001, because oil was found in Somalia - and today some hostages that have been in captivity since 2011 were suddenly shot dead.

Stop being naive - once they come into Nigeria - they won't leave till they plunder everything. And once the drones and the hellfire missiles start dropping - it won't just be Northern Nigeria - Niger Delta would also feel it. They don't really care about the North - their eyes are on Niger Delta, the North would just be their operational base. Ask questions!!


Anyway, the so called 'War on Terrors' epicentre is now Nigeria.

The west now have a plausible reason to establish a military base (aka consulate) in Nigeria, a 'Drone Program', flood Nigeria with 'Arms' paid for from future budgets, put 'Boots on the Ground' etc etc.

Some would call it a 'Psychological Operation' - Problem - Reaction - Solution.

Expect 'Defence Spending' to radically increase.

Boko Haram/Al Qaida are now used to refer to the same people = predominantly muslim extremists.

They've used the same 'Modus of Operation' for centuries. It wouldn't suprise me if our 'Dullard President' signs a 'Protection Treaty' with them tomorrow in exchange for the resources of the land.

This ones even more pathetic than the so called 'Bin Laden' capture and murder.


Cameron is not Obama, neither is the Britain anything near America. Trying to spring an Obama surprise failed woefully. this has only bought him fury from the Italians and recriminations will come even from his own parliament.

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-889613.0.html

[KingJaja]

If you recall, a raid by BH led to about 200 deaths last January. They've attacked again. This merely puts in focus the irrelevance of British hostage relief operations to the security situation in Northern Nigeria.

Why (Nigerians ask) should we be bothered about two British hostages, when no one (our government inclusive) is bothered about our own lives and security?


Suspected Boko Haram militants attacked a police station in Kano suburb earlier today according to residents.

Armed militants stormed the Rijiyar Zaki Police station in Ungogo local government area in an audacious attack that led some policemen to flee the station.

The Joint Task Force was immediately called to halt the attack. Saharareporters could not confirm the number of casualty as at the time of filing this report. The area is entirely cordoned by soldiers from the JTF.
http://saharareporters.com/news-page/gunmen-attack-police-station-kano

[Chowing]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/09/us-nigeria-hostages-idUSBRE8280RV20120309

Security officials say Boko Haram has received training, weapons and bomb-making technology from al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, which operates in neighboring Niger and Chad. The Nigerian militant group wants to impose Islamic Sharia law in a country split between Christians and Muslims.

The hostages were shown in a short video that emerged in August saying they were being held by al Qaeda.

It seems that the Brits delayed a couple of days after they had information as to where the hostages were being held. They should have known, it seems to me, that the news that they had captured two BH's top people that the word would spread to the compound.


The SSS source said Nigerian forces arrested two of the conspirators on Tuesday, including Abu Mohammed, near Sokoto, on the basis of a Nigerian intelligence tipoff. After interrogation the two led them to the compound.

The Nigerian and British forces mounted a joint raid two days later. The source said three kidnappers were taken alive from inside the house and the others were killed.

With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

[Stan]

Some feel unhappy that the Nigerian government seems to value foreign lives much more than Nigerian lives. This is a very sore point.

It's been decades since most of the West evacuated Zaire, but the scene that day is burned into my memory. Not the mass of whites going for anything that would float or fly, but the look on the Zairians faces watching many of us leave (them behind).

There may have been 70 or so Westerners killed and raped during the first week of pillaging and social upheavals, but those were considered acts of revenge for years of abuse and probably also rape in one form or another.

Not so easy to explain to most, that even the Zairians cared but had little control nor hope. One of the ground handlers at the airport noticed I had no bags and asked, "Mr. Stan, you're not leaving?" When I told him he was stuck with me and the Colonel, he grabbed me and gave both of us a huge hug. (It was hot outside that day - and we were both sweating)... Yuk !

More than 2,500 locals has lost their lives during that week and all we focused on was condemning Zaire for those 70 or so whites being killed.

It's not hard for me to believe that the common Nigerian has a whole lot more to be concerned about than those two murdered engineers.

Pumping oil and playing with ordnance are risky occupations. They knew that when they went North, but, still decided to go. I don't see where their governments became responsible for their actions. Kidnapping obviously still pays well, but maybe this little soirée has sent a message.

[Chowing]

And it is not just Boko Haram which benefits from the global fear of terrorism. My friend went on to point out that a quarter of Nigeria's budget of almost $30 billion this year will be spent on the military and security services. The service chiefs will now have to find - or create something - to justify that and keep it flowing.

Many of the northern highways are studded with police road blocks which have an excuse and official blessing to engage in a bit of highway robbery. It is very difficult to get through any Nigerian roadblock without 'dashing' - paying - the police. But the police are small beer compared to the army. This is the biggest chance the generals have had to 'chop' since military rule ended in 1999. Unless they have changed completely, the senior officers will not allow the justification for this level of spending to diminish or die. They now have a major stake in Nigeria's 'war on terror'.

This is also the case for northern Nigerian politicians who have been funding and possibly even directing Boko Haram. They saw how the politicians of the Niger Delta manipulated the gangs which were attacking oil installations and demanding that oil companies did more for the local communities. The end result was that political power shifted to the Delta with a Delta man as president. If the Delta could do that, so could the north, which has finally lost political power in Nigeria after almost 50 years.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201203091186.html

The article is an "Analysis" piece written by Richard Dowden, the Directory of the Royal African Society.

[Stan]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

The failed op will probably be blamed on the Nigerian team (incapable, lack of intel, etc.) and swept under the rug.

I was unaware of BH claiming they kidnapped the engineers nearly a year ago. I believe the credit simply goes to "a militant group". Kidnapping has been going on for years in that region. Considering how Jaja feels about the competence of the Nigerian police and security services, I am unlikely to believe something an "SSS source" unanimously decides to leak to the press . I doubt the rhetoric will change, but the kidnapper's strategy will indeed change for the worst.


With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

That's a good point, Chowing ! Why would BH slow down just because the Brits came in to rescue two engineers from "a militant group or splinter"? The renewed attack on a police station just tells me the Nigerian police have gone laxed thinking they are invincible following a slow period of activity. This is so typical that even they should have known not to let their guard down. A minor victory, but they have yet to win the war.

[Chowing]

More than 2,500 locals has lost their lives during that week and all we focused on was condemning Zaire for those 70 or so whites being killed.

It's not hard for me to believe that the common Nigerian has a whole lot more to be concerned about than those two murdered engineers.

Pumping oil and playing with ordnance are risky occupations. They knew that when they went North, but, still decided to go. I don't see where their governments became responsible for their actions. Kidnapping obviously still pays well, but maybe this little soire has sent a message.

For those of us who have worked alongside and been helped and broadened by Africans it is always a sad affair to see the press go to town reporting the deaths of expat visitors in a context where hundreds, even thousands of Africans have died. It would be sad enough it was merely nationalism that causes the Western press and governments to churn up the rhetoric, but I am of the opinion that racism trumps nationalism in many cases.

[Stan]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201203091186.html

The article is an "Analysis" piece written by Richard Dowden, the Directory of the Royal African Society.

I think his opening para says it all. The rest is a bit of repetitive journalism from wire feeds.


Nothing in Nigeria is what it seems. Beneath a confusing, disorderly surface lie networks of association and obligation of which outsiders, and sometimes insiders, are unaware. Money is chopped (stolen), people paid off, budgets looted and shared. Power, political and financial, is never transparent. In other nation states a citizen's obligations to the state or employer, trump friendship or family connections. In Nigeria the state and institutions often rank far lower than personal affiliations. Outsiders are often shocked at the way public institutions are looted and distributed to buy personal loyalty or simply given to family and friends. The state is not a revered institution serving all citizens. It is a treasure house of power and money to be captured and looted.

[KingJaja]

I pointed out everything he (Richard Dowden) wrote over the past few months. I don't, however have any high sounding titles and I am not considered "an expert" on Nigeria (a topic I have intimate knowledge of and interest in).

Why do people quote Westerners with only a passing knowledge of the subject matter? There are several million university graduates from Nigeria and most of them can present a clearer picture of what is going on down there.

[KingJaja]

This is what the crime scene looks like barely 24 hours after the botched bid. We've got serious problems here.

Are to assume that a lot of the forensic evidence will be lost.

http://saharareporters.com/photo/photonews-uknigeria-failed-rescue-bid

[Chowing]

I pointed out everything he (Richard Dowden) wrote over the past few months. I don't, however have any high sounding titles and I am not considered "an expert" on Nigeria (a topic I have intimate knowledge of and interest in).

Why do people quote Westerners with only a passing knowledge of the subject matter? There are several million university graduates from Nigeria and most of them can present a clearer picture of what is going on down there.

Hey, I will quote you anyday, Kingjaja. Your insights are very valuable here, and would be valuable to any venue where Nigerian affairs are discussed. Still waiting for the day you will launch your campaign for office.

[davidbfpo]

Leaving aside the failed rescue attempt and the diplomatic tiff with Italy, today's coverage here has stated the British SBS tried to storm the house after a decision to go ahead by the UK PM:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17322143 .

What has struck me as odd is the absence of any stated role for the government of Nigeria.

The BBC report by a local reporter states the gunfire went on for hours, you will have to listen to the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17311568

I fully accept the criticism that KingJaJa has illustrated. One hopes this Anglo-Nigerian cooperation will be bilaterally examined and lessons learnt. Perhaps the UK will then - openly - offer assistance.

Yes, the footage of the house indicates the premises were not secured after the shooting stopped and anyone could wander around. This disregard for basic police procedures and loss of forensic opportunities is not a good sign; not that it does not happen elsewhere, for example Ms Bhutto's murder scene was hosed down.

[Dayuhan]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

I don't think anyone's denied that there are "links". The question is the nature and the extent. Possibly due to local experience, I'm suspicious of the word "link" in the AQ context, and I wouldn't like to see BH reflexively referred to as "AQ-linked", just as I wouldn't like to see the US put BH on the terrorist list. Either would push a fundamentally domestic conflict toward internationalization, and either would be perceived as - and could actually become - a prelude to foreign intervention.


With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

Why would BH slow down? The Brits weren't there to fight BH in general, they were there for one mission. They're probably out of the country already. I wouldn't expect any impact at all on BH operations.

[Chowing]

The BBC report by a local reporter states the gunfire went on for hours, you will have to listen to the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17311568

I fully accept the criticism that KingJaJa has illustrated. One hopes this Anglo-Nigerian cooperation will be bilaterally examined and lessons learnt. Perhaps the UK will then - openly - offer assistance.

Yes, the footage of the house indicates the premises were not secured after the shooting stopped and anyone could wander around. This disregard for basic police procedures and loss of forensic opportunities is not a good sign; not that it does not happen elsewhere, for example Ms Bhutto's murder scene was hosed down.

It seems the operation was botched in many ways. Hours of gunfire really surprises me. According to first reports, the security forces, including the British had been informed where the hostages were being held two days before the operation took place. Seems that would be enough time to come up with a plan that would get them into the compound much quicker. The resistance inside must have been far more than they expected.

The crime scene, it seems to me, would have been of great interest to the British as well. Why didn't they help secure it.

I am confident that there are many differences between the US raid in Pakistan that killed Bin Laden. The target was "greater" and they did not have the cooperation of the local government. Sometimes "cooperation" can work against coming up with and carrying out a highly sophisticated plan. Yet, as this operation is picked apart, the Brits will not look good on many levels.

BH has had a great gain from this. The hostages were not freed. They held off the Brits and Nigerian security forces for "hours." Whether the hostages were taken by core BH loyalists or just a splinter, the whole BH movement will have gained considerable fear from the populous and generated some pride and respect from loyalists. Can't help but think this will help their recruitment and funding.

[KingJaja]

I think that (a) the operation was compromised and (b) whoever held those hostages was a lot more competent than the Brits thought.

Boko Haram has gone out of its way to state that they weren't responsible for the hostage taking. This could mean that (a) they were behind it but are afraid of further retaliation from the Brits or (b) they were not behind it.

(Boko Haram was very proud of its achievement at the UN building last year - so they are not too averse to foreign targets).

The sad truth is that many Nigerians don't really like the Brits, so there isn't too much sympathy for the Brits. The Niger Delta hates the Brits because of Shell. In the South-East, many remember that Britain was one of the most earnest backers of the Northern-led Nigerian government (85% of weapons supplied), 1-3 million people died during that conflict. And many in the North (the lower classes), hate the Brits for perpetuating the feudal system (Lugard's indirect rule through the emirs) that keeps the poor uneducated and dis-empowered.

In many ways, Boko Haram is a revolt against the British-sanctioned feudal system (sons of local aristocracy who were encouraged to seek careers in the Military and were trained at Sandhurst and Mons, Aldershot). These boys later became kleptocratic generals/politicians. When you add British support for the "War on Terror" and the absence of an independent British position on the Arab-Israeli conflict, one immediately realises that there is a lot stacked against the British.

In summary, the Brits need to be very careful about what they do in Nigeria going forward. The same applies to America. The problem with America is that there is no discernible difference between British and American foreign policy in Nigeria/Africa. This may be good because America can "leverage" on the extensive experience of the British - but remember that the British have a very long history and did a lot of bad things - and they won't tell you about everything they were up to.

This means that Americans are assumed to support everything the British do in Nigeria. That might have been a prudent policy in the sixties and seventies (during the Cold War), but with a more sophisticated, better educated and more Worldly wise new generation, this policy requires a rethink.

NB: The same applies to the Brits with regards to American policies.

[KingJaja]

From a Nigerian Newspaper. (Could our military experts comment on this?).


Heavily armed soldiers and men of the State Security Service (SSS), reportedly supported by British security operatives in a commando-like operation on Thursday stormed a criminal hideout at Mabera area of Sokoto to free two expatriates, an Italian Franco Lamolinara and Briton Christopher McManus who were kidnapped in Kebbi State May last year.

Heavily armed soldiers and men of the State Security Service (SSS), reportedly supported by British security operatives in a commando-like operation on Thursday stormed a criminal hideout at Mabera area of Sokoto to free two expatriates, an Italian Franco Lamolinara and Briton Christopher McManus who were kidnapped in Kebbi State May last year.
The operation started around 10am when the security personnel sneaked to Mabera, a sandy suburb in Sokoto metropolis without attracting the attention of the residents of the area. Soon, they cordoned off the un-tarred road leading to the detached building where the abductors were hiding.

Sensing the presence of the security personnel whose operation was heralded by an aerial patrol of the area with a military helicopter, the abductors opened fire. They started shooting sporadically into the air, Weekly Trust gathered. On their part, the soldiers who laid ambush on the abductors from all sides reciprocated by shooting at the house where the abductors were with the abducted expatriates.

Weekly Trust gathered that before the soldiers engaged the kidnappers in the gun duel, they asked residents who were attracted to the area by the gunshots to leave. Witnesses told our correspondent that the operators of a block factory opposite the abductors’ residence had to lie face-down. They were in that situation throughout the operation that lasted till 7pm. The gun duel lasted for hours, throwing residents of the area into fear. As the battle went on, an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) was deployed to join the assault.

Resident who were watching the operation from afar, said the kidnappers killed the British and Italian engineers when the soldiers were about to overpower them. “They killed the foreigners and threw their lifeless bodies outside the gate. But before then, a woman who was among the kidnappers came out from the house and from afar we saw her talking to the soldiers. She had a gunshot injury on her leg,” Kabir Mohammed who resides in the area, said.

According to him, the soldiers took the woman aside and the gun battle continued. He said the gateman was shot shortly after the woman left when he was trying to close the gate from inside. At the end of the operation, he said he saw the soldiers carrying the lifeless bodies of two of the abductors and that of the gateman.

“There was a time when the abductors engaged my service to construct mosquito net for them,” said Mohammed. “They paid me 1,000 naira for the small work I did for them but I did not see any foreign nationals among them. I entered the house but not an inner apartment. The people I saw in the compound were more than 10.” A civil servant, Mani Abubakar, who resides in the area said his attention was attracted to the house when a helicopter was patrolling only the building. “I was in my house when I noticed the helicopter and some minutes later I started hearing gunshots from the house,” he said. “I was peeping from my compound and throughout the operation I did not see any military or security operatives. Four hours into the gun battle, the kidnappers jumped the fence of their house to an uncompleted building near them. From there they were shooting and the soldiers set tires ablaze and were throwing it to them.”

Residents besieged the area a day after the failed rescue operation. From across the state residents of Sokoto yesterday trooped to the house out of curiosity, as early as 7am spectators continued to troop to the destroyed building. When our correspondent visited, people were seen moving from room to room in the house.

Weekly Trust noticed numerous gunshot holes in the building close to the house. Tyres were seen in an uncovered soak-away pit in the building. At the main house of the abductors, also, gunshot holes could be seen on the walls. After entering the gate of the house, our correspondent saw a two bedroom flat. Inside the compound, our correspondent saw three rooms each with a toilet. In one of the toilets, there was blood splashed all over. Spectators said it was where the expatriates were killed.

Efforts to get the landlord or caretaker of the house yielded no result as the occupant of the only house facing the building refused to talk to the press. Meanwhile, residents of a building allegedly owned by the landlord of the building where the kidnappers lived have deserted the house. The house carries the same design and colour with the house where the kidnapers stayed.

When contacted on phone during the operation on Thursday, the spokesperson of the Sokoto State Police Command, ASP Almustapha Sani said the operation was carried out by the SSS and the Army and not the police.“But on our part, we have fortified the whole state with our operatives,” he said.

Several calls put to the Sokoto state Director of SSS, Alhaji Jibril Danmallam on Thursday and Friday were unsuccessful as he was not picking his calls. However, Weekly Trust learnt that information on the location of the captors was received through people arrested in a raid on a Boko Haram hideout in Zaria on Tuesday night. A senior security official said in the Zaria raid a top Boko Haram factional leader named Abu Muhammad was captured along with some of his followers.

It was from those arrested in the raid that the security agencies extracted information about the location of the kidnapped expatriates, the source said. After getting what they considered “credible information,” the security agencies notified President Jonathan who then sought the approval of the British authorities to attempt freeing the kidnapped men.

British Prime Minister David Cameron in a statement yesterday confirmed he authorised the rescue attempt that went awry. Mr. Cameron said he called Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to inform him of the “tragic conclusion” of the operation. “We are still awaiting confirmation of the details, but the early indications are clear that both men were murdered by their captors, before they could be rescued,” he said. In an Associated Press report, Italy’s president Yesterday accused Britain of an “inexplicable” failure to consult with his country before the rescue attempt was launched, but British Foreign Secretary William Hague said there was no time to confer and that Italy was informed only once the rescue mission was already under way. “We had to make a decision very quickly to go ahead with this operation, we had very limited time, that constrained how much we were able to consult others,” Hague said at a meeting in Denmark.

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano also demanded an explanation over the use of force to free the hostages. But Britain’s Defense Secretary Philip Hammond told BBC television: “There was intelligence that they were about to be moved, possibly executed and therefore the decision was to go in, aware of course that there were huge risks. Hostage rescue exercises always have huge risks attached ... but the decision was made that the best chance of saving their lives was to act.” Hammond said Britain would analyze the operation and discuss findings with the Italians.

Meanwhile, Weekly Trust went to B. Stabilini Construction Company, building the Kebbi State branch of the Central Bank of Nigeria, where the expatriates were kidnapped in May last year was under lock and key yesterday and security personnel said they were asked to cordon the place. All attempts to talk to the site manager failed as one of his aides told Weekly Trust the officer said he would not speak.

It would be recalled that when the two late expatriates were kidnapped, another Italian employee managed to escape during the kidnapping but a Nigerian neighbour who came to help was shot and wounded. About two weeks later, the kidnappers demanded for a ransom of N150 million for the release of the captives.

http://weeklytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8733:how-sokoto-rescue-gone-wrong-happened&catid=40:cover-stories&Itemid=26

[Stan]

I am confident that there are many differences between the US raid in Pakistan that killed Bin Laden.

BH has had a great gain from this. The hostages were not freed. They held off the Brits and Nigerian security forces for "hours."

You're indeed correct, there is a huge difference in the two scenarios. OBL was not holding anyone hostage and everyone inside was considered free game.

The only reason anything lasted longer than 5 minutes is because those forces came to rescue hostages. Had they known the two were dead, the purported hours of gun battles would have been significantly quicker and without the use of small arms ammunition.

This seems more likely the case:


I think that (a) the operation was compromised and (b) whoever held those hostages was a lot more competent than the Brits thought.

Boko Haram has gone out of its way to state that they weren't responsible for the hostage taking. This could mean that (a) they were behind it but are afraid of further retaliation from the Brits or (b) they were not behind it.

(Boko Haram was very proud of its achievement at the UN building last year - so they are not too averse to foreign targets).

[KingJaja]

So Al Qaeda was behind it! :wry:. What are the US and AFRICOM waiting for?

Could the kidnappers be part of Al Qaeda but not Boko Haram? Now if Al Qaeda is in Sokoto and Boko Haram is in Kano and Kano is a day's trip away from Sokoto, can we conclude that Al Qaeda has already made contact with Boko Haram?

Knowing the British press (I actually studied there), this story will grow wings and fly and pressure will be put on politicians and diplomats to say or do something.


The Nigerian gang who abducted Mr McManus, 28, and his Italian engineer colleague Francesco Molinara, 48, had already received part of the cash when Thursday’s raid took place, sources close to the kidnappers have alleged.
They had intended to release the pair when the rest of the cash was handed over, but in the meantime British intelligence services and their Nigerian counterparts located their hideout and launched the rescue effort.
The claims - denied last night by the Foreign Office - were made by a Mauritanian news agency, Agence Nouakchott D’Information, which is known to have close contacts with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb. Last year it received a video tape of the two hostages, and it has also run interviews with senior figures in AQIM.
Quoting an AQIM source, the agency said talks had been underway “for the liberation of the hostages” for some time.
The kidnappers had even phoned Mr McManus’s family in Manchester, demanding an initial ransom of five million Euros and the release of a number of prisoners.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/9136247/I-million-ransom-deal-had-been-struck-for-British-hostage-claims-al-Qaeda.html

[KingJaja]

Hostage's account of Al Qaeda captivity.


In December 2008, I was making my third trip to Niger as the United Nations Special Envoy, attempting to broker a peace between the government and rebel Tuareg groups. One Sunday, two weeks before Christmas, my colleague, Louis Guay, and I were returning to the capital, Niamey, in a UN vehicle when a truck passed us, slewed in front and forced us to a stop.
Two AK-47s were aimed at the face of our driver, and within the blink on an eye all three of us were torn from our seats and thrown into the back of their truck. The whole grab took perhaps 40 seconds.
Thus began our 56-hour descent into hell, a 1,000 km off-road nightmare into the middle of the Sahara desert. Twelve hours into that appalling journey, we stopped for a couple of hours rest. As I paced back and forth, the sentry, a young Senegalese, looked up from where he was making tea and asked, “Have you figured out who we are yet?” Refusing to acknowledge the dawning reality, I shook my head and he spat “We are al-Qaeda,” enjoying the effect as the bottom fell out of my world.
Three days later, we were ushered toward a large, dark tent, and when I saw the assembled video equipment, I despaired at the thought of my family watching a You Tube video of our beheading. Instead, we recorded a message in which I stated that we had been captured by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and urged the UN and the government of Canada to bend every effort to secure our release and — as instructed — warned them to avoid violence in any effort to win our freedom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/niger/9136201/My-130-days-in-the-hands-of-al-Qaedas-African-monsters-by-former-hostage.html

[KingJaja]

Read this. Chilling...


In the face of the murderous rampage of Boko Haram in Nigeria over the past year, which included the bombing of Nigerian police headquarters in Abuja and the destruction of UN headquarters, many hundreds have been killed (thousands over the past decade). There seems, though, to be a reluctance to believe that it is all part of the same jihadi movement. Many want to believe that Boko Haram is different, somehow less dangerous than Al Qaeda’s other African affiliates. While I understand the reluctance to acknowledge that Al Qaeda might have won a solid foothold in Africa’s most populous and important country, again, I know that to be the case. One of my captors was a young Nigerian from Kano; clearly what we would call an “exchange officer.”

[Dayuhan]

can we conclude that Al Qaeda has already made contact with Boko Haram?

I think most reached that conclusion a long time ago. The danger is that the conclusion, taken one-dimensionally, will lead to unproductive and inappropriate intervention. That happens when an essentially national movement that has had some links is reclassified as an "international terrorist group" along the AQ mold.

I wouldn't be too moved by kidnappers saying "we are Al Qaeda". People say all sorts of things, especially when they want to scare somebody. Conclusions have to be based on hard intel, not on what somebody said.

[davidbfpo]

The tale of the kidnapped Canadian diplomat, serving with the UN in Niger, is well covered in a separate thread - on Niger - thanks to Rex B. and maybe worth checking:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=9303

[Stan]

Rex did an excellent job of keeping us up to date !
In sum, this pretty much says it all:



In his most recent comments to the CBC, Bob has suggested that his itinerary was leaked to AQIM by a source within the government of Niger or the UN (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/betrayal-led-to-kidnapping-fowler-says/article1279564/).

[Stan]

Read this. Chilling...

Good article ! Link to post (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/9136201/My-130-days-in-the-hands-of-al-Qaedas-African-monsters-by-former-hostage.html) and this para a little clearer on motives:


... but from the outset it was made excruciatingly clear by the 31 members of the group which held us, that as representatives of the hated United Nations, we were “prisoners of war” and not some random targets of opportunity.

[KingJaja]

I think most reached that conclusion a long time ago. The danger is that the conclusion, taken one-dimensionally, will lead to unproductive and inappropriate intervention. That happens when an essentially national movement that has had some links is reclassified as an "international terrorist group" along the AQ mold.

I wouldn't be too moved by kidnappers saying "we are Al Qaeda". People say all sorts of things, especially when they want to scare somebody. Conclusions have to be based on hard intel, not on what somebody said.

But isn't that exactly how Al Qaeda in Iraq started business? Even Al Qaeda didn't start out as the Al Qaeda we know today.

This phenomena has economic roots, but it also has theological and political roots - let us not discount them. Several decades of Wahabbist theology and the impact of the Iranian revolution on political Islam need to be considered.

[Stan]

So Al Qaeda was behind it! :wry:. What are the US and AFRICOM waiting for?



The claims - denied last night by the Foreign Office - were made by a Mauritanian news agency, Agence Nouakchott D’Information

AFRICOM is heading home, as you have also noted. As far as the British press and the USG go, I can tell you first hand that using open sources is far too complex (what motivates the concerned parties reporting). One thing throughout the African press is clear, there is the temptation to either downplay or exaggerate.

Why (or who) would start paying a ransom and then give a green light for a hostage rescue is absurd IMO. What's with Johnathan doing favors for the UK obviously knowing most Nigerians would be against British intervention ?

[Dayuhan]

But isn't that exactly how Al Qaeda in Iraq started business? Even Al Qaeda didn't start out as the Al Qaeda we know today.

This phenomena has economic roots, but it also has theological and political roots - let us not discount them. Several decades of Wahabbist theology and the impact of the Iranian revolution on political Islam need to be considered.

Al Qaeda in Iraq didn't exist until a US occupation gave it a reason to exist.

I'm well aware of the complexity of the AQ phenomenon and its religious and geopolitical roots. I'm also aware that militant groups focusing almost entirely on national concerns but with some connections to AQ can in some minds morph into AQ "franchises" that may then be treated as full participants in AQ's global agenda. That perception can then become an excuse for the kind of foreign involvement that ends up enhancing the perception that "the west" supports the oppression of Muslims and the frustration of their goals, a narrative that can end up promoting AQ and further internationalizing the conflict.

[Stan]

I'd also like to echo Dayuhan's post by saying AQIM back in the early 90s pledged to avoid civilians while attacking military and government.

[KingJaja]

Latest Boko Haram suicide attack. (Viewers discretion required in following link).

http://lindaikeji.blogspot.com/2012/03/bomb-blast-at-st-finbarrs-catholic.html

Retaliation has already started.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/reprisals-kill-10-after-church-bombed-in-nigerias-jos

If one recalls that only two Sundays ago, another church was bombed in Jos ....

This is going to get ugly.

[davidbfpo]

In Post 780 KingJajaa asked:
Could our military experts comment on this?

KingJaja was referring to the failed hostage rescue and I am not a 'military expert'.

Speed, Aggression and Surprise are normally the operational and planning principles used in law enforcement and I expect in the military in this situation, when negotiation is not an option. From the assorted reporting once the operation began none of the principles were present.

Once resistance started - by two armed men - access to the house was not gained. Instead it became a rather long, probably disorganised fire fight.

[Stan]

Speed, Aggression and Surprise are normally the operational and planning principles used in law enforcement and I expect in the military in this situation, when negotiation is not an option. From the assorted reporting once the operation began none of the principles were present.

Once resistance started - by two armed men - access to the house was not gained. Instead it became a rather long, probably disorganised fire fight.

David,
I can't speak for UK law enforcement nor military, but US law enforcement officers and military are held to strict guidelines regarding excessive use of force. British, FBI and US Military all attend the same hostage rescue courses - often together. I would assume they are also all guided by the same principles. However, as I indicated above, had the soldiers realized that the captives were already dead, such a ridiculously long firefight would have terminated with a few grenades. It was clear that they had to at least recover the bodies and without any means of determining the state of the hostages, they continued the firefight.

Just my $0.02 !

[KingJaja]

The daily drip drip of violence will either be the new normal (we'll learn to live with it, shrug it off) or the beginnings of a transition to a more dangerous state.


Lagos, Nigeria - The town of Mubi in Nigeria's northern Adamawa state was rocked by several explosions on Monday night, followed by sporadic gunshots that sent residents scampering for safety, eyewitnesses said.

It was not known who was behind the blasts, which came shortly after six bullet-riddled bodies were picked up in different parts of the town, which has been targeted in recent times by the Islamic sect Boko Haram.

The discovered of the bodies triggered protests among residents of the town.
http://www.afriquejet.com/nigeria-tension-as-explosion-rocks-nigerian-town-six-bodies-found-2012031334956.html

[KingJaja]

Can anyone comment on this bizarre story? Australia isn't normally a country you'd think about with respect to Africa.


Australian special forces have been operating in several African countries, including Nigeria, over the past year gathering intelligence on terrorist activities, a report said on Tuesday.

The Sydney Morning Herald said 4 Squadron of the elite Special Air Service (SAS) had mounted dozens of clandestine operations in places such as Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Kenya in a role normally carried out by spies.

Citing a government source, it said the missions by the previously unknown squadron were believed to involve terrorism intelligence gathering amid concerns about the threat posed by the Islamist al-Shebab militia.

They are also aimed at developing rescue strategies for evacuating trapped Australian civilians while assessing African border controls and exploring landing sites for possible military interventions.

The information gathered flows into databases used by the United States and its allies, it said.

The Herald added the operations have raised serious concerns among some sections of the military and intelligence communities that the troops do not have adequate legal protection or contingency plans if they are captured.

“They have all the espionage skills but without (Australian Secret Intelligence Service’s) legal cover,” said one government source.

According to the newspaper, ASIS officers are permitted under Australian law to carry false passports and, if arrested, to deny who they are employed by.

http://pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/03/13/boko-haram-aussie-special-forces-in-nigeria/

[Stan]

Can anyone comment on this bizarre story? Australia isn't normally a country you'd think about with respect to Africa.


Not so bizarre actually.
Several posts back I told you that US SF teams were a whole lot closer than you believed. Several as far back as 1985.

Even here in the early 90s we had teams performing similar missions, some even here just to immerse in language training.


They are also aimed at developing rescue strategies for evacuating trapped Australian civilians while assessing African border controls and exploring landing sites for possible military interventions.


This is about 90% of the reasons they are around, not just Australia either. When Zaire imploded the first time, a massive evacuation took place with troops flying in from God knows where :cool: The entire four-day event went off without a hitch - perfectly executed and minimal local involvement. We managed to get over 15,000 people safely home with less than 30 soldiers.


The Herald added the operations have raised serious concerns among some sections of the military and intelligence communities that the troops do not have adequate legal protection or contingency plans if they are captured.

“They have all the espionage skills but without (Australian Secret Intelligence Service’s) legal cover,” said one government source.

Rest assured someone knew/knows who they are and where they operate. As for having "adequate" legal protection inside the host country (such as declared spies purportedly possess) - that's a load of Sierra and history in Africa tells a different tale.

I'd be more worried about the spies than professional military trained to be in a jam and get out too !

[KingJaja]

Stan,

That explains it. In that case they are of little concern either to myself or 160 million other Nigerians. Given the experience of Zaire, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Liberia - if Nigeria implodes, we don't expect the West to behave any differently.

[Stan]

Stan,

That explains it. In that case they are of little concern either to myself or 160 million other Nigerians. Given the experience of Zaire, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Liberia - if Nigeria implodes, we don't expect the West to behave any differently.

Jaja,
Sadly, you are once again correct.
I wish it was so easy to dismiss as typical Western behavior. There are countless events on several continents where such measures have proven to be prudent vs not being prepared and "going in" blind.

You've displayed a better understanding of our politicians than I even pretend to care about - yet alone understand. But yet, you don't see the pressure most of us work under - whether we like it or not. All most of us can do is be prepared for an evacuation.

I wished just once the roles were reversed. Imagine you're the President of Nigeria and you have 10 to 25 thousand citizens in DC when the place has a civil war. They've been pumping oil for decades and they put you in office, and, they want a safe way out alive, or, you will not be doling out those 10 grand dinner parties. So, you put your AMERICOM dudes on it and they conclude a serious intel and language gap exists :rolleyes:

The rest is easy.

[KingJaja]

I live in Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city and a barometer of where Nigeria is heading.

I went to Church last Sunday and heard an announcement about the creation of a cooperative. Members are supposed to pool resources for a period of six months and then be eligible to apply for loans and financial support. The amount requested per month is minimal (about $20), but the implications are far ranging - in a nation with a non-existent social security system, the Church has stepped into the void.

Juxtapose this with the planned retrenchment of 25,000 workers from the Civil Service next year, you'd immediately understand that the Church is thinking ahead.

Many Western analysts tend to underestimate the appeal and influence of Christian organisations in Nigeria. The Redeemed Christian Church of God, the largest evangelical denomination in Nigeria has at least 26,000 parishes and membership runs into millions. But evangelical churches don't just preach the word, they are heavily into education - these churches operate several primary and secondary schools and several operate or are in the process of establishing private universities.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSt2rZ9z2DkjCMYXsgbxTNR0gu2d1LYu dvyTFBSFxOLNlSHURoO

(The pix above shows Covenant University campus, it may not be much by American standards, but for Nigeria, it is quite an achievement).

The same trend is mirrored within Islam (Nigeria also has a very large number of progressive Muslims, but they tend to be ignored by Western analysts). There are a rising number of "Nigeria Turkish" secondary schools (the Turks have street cred in those parts of Nigeria).

However, there is a strain of Islam that sees the superior organisational ability and financial muscle of Christian organisations as a threat that must be dealt with. Boko Haram, political Sharia and some Christian/Muslim crises may be seen as an attempt to mark boundaries.

As government is in retreat, religious organisations are rapidly taking over the functions of government. Will the next generation of Nigerians be even less tolerant than mine?

The next trend is the diminishing relevance of the center. Don't get me wrong, the central Federal Government is still hugely relevant, but due to compromises that have to be made to balance religious and ethnic sentiments and corruption it is increasingly less able to respond in a timely manner in meeting developmental challenges.

Lagos illustrates what the relationship between the Federal Government and more competent local administrations is likely to be in future. Lagos State depends on the Federal Government for only 25% of its funding (unlike most states in the North where the figure is closer to 95%). In addition the Lagos State government, through aggressive tax collection, is funding several important infrastructure projects.

The methods of Lagos are being adopted by more progressive states in Nigeria's South. Right now, there is talk about regional integration between Lagos and the five other states in the South West. (Ogun state is already leveraging on its proximity to Lagos to jump start its economy). Other states in the South are eagerly jumping on the bandwagon (levels of education in the South are high by African standards and increasingly so are expectations of governance).

Where does this leave us? It leaves us with a two speed Nigeria. With the terms North and South and Muslim and Christian not only referring to ethnic and religious affiliations but indicating steadily increasing differences in standards of living, educational attainment but most importantly worldviews.

For a nation to whether the test of time, it has to be much more than a vehicle to support the exploration of crude oil - it needs to have a common focus and a common soul. With two rapidly diverging identities (Muslim/Christian, Northern/Southern), is that possible?

[KingJaja]

A peek into the economic impact of Boko Haram. (Nigeria's educated workforce is dominated by Christian Southerners).


The increasing flight of people, especially non-indigenes, from northern states to the southern part of Nigeria, in the wake of the unabated suicide bombings by the Boko Haram religious sect, is causing manpower shortages which are undermining economic activities up north.

BusinessDay gathered in Kaduna that chief among the sectors affected are privately owned companies, banks, insurance outfits and the informal sector, where most young men and women have been forced to resign their jobs due to pressures from parents and loved ones that they should return to the south which is considered safer.

We further gathered that the persistent suicide attacks and bombings in the north by the Boko Haram religious sect, on various institutions, including churches and banks, which have led to the death of scores of people and destruction of properties worth billions of naira, have forced a rethink by many who had wanted to stay.

Within the past four months, the activities of Boko Haram in the north have claimed the lives of well- educated bankers, artisans, technicians and other professionals, who had spent years in the northern states of Kano, Kaduna, Borno, Niger, Yobe, Bauchi, and Plateau. The situation is made worse by the fact that the Peace and Unity Conference initiated by northern leaders, under the auspices of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the series of meetings held by northern traditional and religious leaders, as well as the Northern States Governors Forum, could not convince members of the sect to sheathe their swords.

According to a bank manager in Kaduna who spoke on condition of anonymity, the insecurity in the region has created vacancies in most banks in the northern states, especially Bauchi, Borno, Plateau, Kaduna and Kano. He said most young graduates who were employed not long ago, have resigned their jobs due to pressure from their loved ones to quit the north.

He added that when the banks attempted to transfer personnel from the south to fill the vacancies, they were met with resistance and threats of resignation by experienced staff. He added that “Most people interviewed for replacement from the northern region did not measure up”. BusinessDay findings are that other economic activities are at the moment, at a very low ebb in the region.

For instance, the Kaduna Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (KADCCIMA) had to postpone indefinitely, this year’s International Trade Fair, due to security challenges currently facing the state.

Borno state Commissioner for Information, Inuwa Bwala, however told BusinessDay that notwithstanding the security challenges, the government of Borno would keep its electoral promises to the people, pointing out that in the middle of the crisis, the present administration has constructed four out of the five hospitals it promised to deliver before the end of its first year in office.

Bwala also told BusinessDay that plans were underway to engage 27,000 youths in productive ventures, to reduce poverty and unemployment among the youths. He added that government plans to cultivate 10,000 hectres of land to keep the youth gainfully engaged in the production of various agricultural produce, regretting that the issue of Boko Haram has been hijacked by various criminal groups to unleash terror and even settle political scores with the present administration in the state.

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/76-hot-topic/34398-youths-refuse-job-offers-in-the-north

[Chowing]

Let me say right off, Kingjaja, I sure hope that your understandings and passion are being to real use for Nigeria and not just contributions to this forum. I appreciate them very much, but the Nigerian people are missing out on a lot if they are not getting some leadership and inspiration from you. I trust they are.


I live in Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city and a barometer of where Nigeria is heading.

I went to Church last Sunday and heard an announcement about the creation of a cooperative. Members are supposed to pool resources for a period of six months and then be eligible to apply for loans and financial support. The amount requested per month is minimal (about $20), but the implications are far ranging - in a nation with a non-existent social security system, the Church has stepped into the void.

Juxtapose this with the planned retrenchment of 25,000 workers from the Civil Service next year, you'd immediately understand that the Church is thinking ahead.

Given the present religious tensions (and actual bloodshed) in Nigeria, what the churches are doing shows that they have substantial, capable and ministry minded leadership that keeps their eyes and minds on more than the immediate.

This type of foresight and action will go a long way in winning the hearts and minds of outsiders (non-christians) and solidify loyalty. Yet, it is more than that is genuine ministering to people. Changing lives. When all seems to be polarizing and turning political, these leaders have the interest of their flock in mind.




However, there is a strain of Islam that sees the superior organisational ability and financial muscle of Christian organisations as a threat that must be dealt with. Boko Haram, political Sharia and some Christian/Muslim crises may be seen as an attempt to mark boundaries.

As government is in retreat, religious organisations are rapidly taking over the functions of government. Will the next generation of Nigerians be even less tolerant than mine?

I assume you are saying "will they be less tolerant of the government." They probably will be. In fact, IMHO, much of the future of Nigeria is in the hands of the youth of today. Their is a new, entrepreneurial spirit among them. If they get VC investment from some of the elite in the country, they will be able to so contribute to the economic base of the country that they will have the confidence to not depend on the government, but take action on their own to bring improvements.

Some of the young entrepreneurs in Kenya are already rallying around a cry of "usikai kimie" - don't remain silent. They have the financial clout to be heard, not so much by the government, but by the populous.



For a nation to whether the test of time, it has to be much more than a vehicle to support the exploration of crude oil - it needs to have a common focus and a common soul. With two rapidly diverging identities (Muslim/Christian, Northern/Southern), is that possible?

Two diverging identities is one thing. Two diverging and hostile identities is another. In either case it is a major challenge to unity.

Sadly, the present polarization in the US has seeming brought government to a standstill and raising tension and animosity in the general populous. Granted things are far from as dire as you now face in Nigeria, but people often fail to see that hard line, uncompromising, belligerent stances toward those on the other side, are a often a prelude to violence and the degradation of life.

[KingJaja]

Chowing,

Thank you very much, I will seek leadership positions but not electoral office.

Democracy in Africa is a topic I could spend an entire day talking about. My uncle was almost assassinated by a political opponent, but that's not the major issue.

If you insist on American style electoral politics in a nation as poor and vast as Nigeria (GDP per capita around $2,000), you are effectively excluding 99.99 pc of the population.

Where are the campaign funds going to come from? Of course from people who have access to a lot of easy money. Will they want to recoup their funds after the elections? Sure. Does that lead to corruption? Definitely.

What do the masses of unemployed youth do? Some seek employment as political thugs and some others use the experience of thuggery to form the nucleus of organisations like MEND and Boko Haram.

The British parliamentary system is less expensive, but it has a flaw of being adversarial - that won't play to well in Africa's divided nations.

Decision making in most African societies is consensual, not "democratic" in the Western sense. We may have to get back to that having tried democracy and failed for fifty odd years.

[ganulv]

I went to Church last Sunday and heard an announcement about the creation of a cooperative. Members are supposed to pool resources for a period of six months and then be eligible to apply for loans and financial support. The amount requested per month is minimal (about $20), but the implications are far ranging - in a nation with a non-existent social security system, the Church has stepped into the void.
I have no idea if they are recent arrivals in Nigeria (I find it difficult to believe they are) but tontines are quite common across Africa and have been for some time. The chances of finding a rotating credit association anywhere on our planet where there are poor people are pretty good, actually.

[KingJaja]

I have no idea if they are recent arrivals in Nigeria (I find it difficult to believe they are) but tontines are quite common across Africa and have been for some time. The chances of finding a rotating credit association anywhere on our planet where there are poor people are pretty good, actually.

We've always had cooperatives, we call them esusu down here. The Church getting fully into the business means that there is likely to be more honesty and better adherence.

[ganulv]

We've always had cooperatives, we call them esusu down here. The Church getting fully into the business means that there is likely to be more honesty and better adherence.
Depends on the church! :o

[KingJaja]

Bayelsa State is President Jonathan's home state. You can read between the lines.


Federal Government has approved the setting up of central military commands in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.

THE PUNCH learnt that the nation’s service chiefs took the decision after assessing the economic importance of the state to the country and the rising activities of cultists and pirates.

Also, there has been a resurgence of violence in the state, with some oil facilities destroyed by militant groups in recent times.

Bayelsa State Governor Seriake Dickson said this on Tuesday when the Chief of the Air Staff, Mohammed Umar, paid him a courtesy visit while inspecting the Nigerian Air Force formations in the state on Tuesday.

Dickson, who was represented by his deputy, Mr. John Jonah, said the Navy would be in the state on Thursday to set up its central command.

Dickson said, “I have been told that the Navy is coming in full force on Thursday to establish its central command. The Army has the biggest headquarters around here. So, all the service chiefs will be fully established here in addition to the Joint Task Force. Bayelsa State will be having more of military presence than many states that are new.”

He said for the state to be secure, government must invest in human development.

Umar said NAF in 2011 reactivated its mobility command with its headquarters in Yenagoa.

He said the headquarters of the mobility command was established in the state because of its strategic importance to the economy of the nation observing that the state provided an “easy reach for the Service to conduct its operations especially within the Niger Delta area”.

He said a parcel of land had been allocated to NAF for the take-off of its command, urging the state government to provide infrastructural assistance to the command.

Umar described the emergence of Dickson as “a huge masterstroke to rescue the state from a yarning precipice”.

He added, “With a campaign theme titled, Restoration 2012, we are convinced that this administration will aptly respond to the yearnings of Bayelsans quickly and urgently address the degrading state of affairs in the state. We are all in agreement that a state like Bayelsa should be at the forefront of development.

“By all means it should be a model state; a state where leadership and governance are accountable, transparent and made to work for the people with the clear aim of being able to guarantee their welfare and progress.”

http://www.punchng.com/news/fg-to-set-up-central-military-commands-in-bayelsa/

[KingJaja]

Could this be one of the driving forces behind some aspects of Boko Haram? Violence is profitable.


The National Assembly yesterday passed the 2012 Appropriation Act of N4,877,209,156,933 with a startling revelation that President Goodluck Jonathan allocated more money to the ex-Niger Delta Militants than the nation’s critical health sector.

A breakdown of the budget shows that the Presidential Amnesty Programme for ex-militants has a recurrent expenditure of N66,176,411,902 while the entire health sector was allocated N60,920,219,702.

The staggering allocation to the ex-militants is separate from the huge amount also allocated to the Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, which is to gulp N48,673,424,630. In other words, the ex-militants and NDDC, which ought to create a conducive atmosphere to discourage militancy in the Niger Delta, were cumulatively allocated N114 billion.

The controversial fuel subsidy has the lion share of N888 billion followed by Works which is to gulp N244 billion.

Education, which is another critical sector of the economy, received only N66 billion, while Power was allocated N75 billion.

Transport is to gulp N89 billion and Water Resources N75 billion.

The 2012 budget, which was increased by about N228.3 billion after it was amended by the National Assembly, is predicated on a crude oil benchmark of $72 per barrel and a production output of 2.48 million barrels per day, as well as an exchange rate of N155 to the U.S. dollar.

After the passage of the budget, Senator President David Mark congratulated his colleagues for the quick passage of the budget and enjoined the executive to submit the 2013 budget to the National Assembly “latest by September this year, to enable us consider and pass it before the end of the year

http://www.nairaland.com/894394/ex-militants-get-more-money-than

[KingJaja]

Two stories illustrate the human toll of the Boko Haram menace and how it appeals to ethnic sentiments.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17369800

http://www.theratshead.blogspot.com/2012/03/how-not-to-stop-boko-haram.html

I said this earlier, only a reform of the Nigerian Police will stop Boko Haram. Nobody is listening.

[Chowing]

Two stories illustrate the human toll of the Boko Haram menace and how it appeals to ethnic sentiments.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17369800

http://www.theratshead.blogspot.com/2012/03/how-not-to-stop-boko-haram.html

I said this earlier, only a reform of the Nigerian Police will stop Boko Haram. Nobody is listening.

Fear does so much damage to the human soul and spirit. The police and BH have sown so much fear in past year. The world must come to understand just how dire things are becoming in Nigeria.

I cannot believe that Pres. Goodluck Jonathan really thinks that he is winning the war. He has to know better. Such statements only make it harder for the local populous to trust him and hard for the rest of the world to believe just how serious things are becoming in Nigeria.

[KingJaja]

Chowing,

You don't really expect him to say he isn't winning the War!

Unlike the US, Nigeria is a divided nation and sometimes "he may be an SOB, but at least he is our SOB" takes precedence over competence. Jonathan isn't really very competent but he is just as incompetent as the typical SOB the Northern Muslims tend to throw out to Abuja (Abacha, Babangida, Yar'adua, Atiku etc).

So the Southern Christian population is going to support their man, regardless. And that leaves the Northern 1/3rd of Nigeria sulking.

Secondly, a not too insignificant proportion of Nigeria's population believe that Boko Haram is an attempt by the North to shake up Jonathan pretty badly - so there is some sympathy for him.

Thirdly, Jonathan is actually quite media/technology savvy and he seems to be better at connecting with younger voters (at least in the South and Middle Belt), than most other Nigerian politicians. He has a good feedback mechanism and can change his message appropriately. This is his facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/jonathangoodluck

[KingJaja]

Remember the Boko Haram raid on Kano and the German engineer that was kidnapped shortly after. Is this conclusive evidence of ties between BH and AQIM?


NOUAKCHOTT: Al-Qaeda's north Africa branch said Wednesday it was holding a German engineer kidnapped in Nigeria two months ago, and that it wanted to swap him for a jailed Muslim woman, a private news agency in Mauritania said.

"We inform you that your compatriot Edgar Fritz Raupach is a prisoner of fighters from AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)," the group said in a statement published by the ANI agency, demanding the release of a woman who it said had converted to Islam.

The woman, Felis Lowitz, whose Muslim name was given as Um Seiv Al-Islam-Al-Ansariya, was said to be detained in Germany where she was being "tortured".

A video obtained by ANI and seen by AFP showed Raupach, his hands tied behind his back, surrounded by masked gunmen.

In the video he called on his "parents, friends and German public opinion" to convince Berlin to "bring an end to the torture of our Muslim sister", adding that only her liberation will save his life.

AQIM warned that any attempt to rescue Raupach will lead to his death, as happened in the case of Italian engineer Franco Lamolinara and British colleague Chris McManus, killed earlier this month during a failed rescue bid by Nigerian forces.

Raupach, ANI said, is an engineer who was kidnapped in northern Nigeria on January 25.

Germany has confirmed one of its nationals has been kidnapped in northern Nigeria, and the German construction company Bilfinger Berger has said he is one of their employees.



Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/International/2012/Mar-21/167519-qaeda-group-claims-kidnap-of-german-in-nigeria-report.ashx#ixzz1pn46m3YK
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[Dayuhan]

How reliable is the source? Is it confirmed that the people involved really do represent AQIM?

What's the story on this woman they allegedly want released in trade? Is it certain that this is what they want? Sometimes KFR groups will toss up a political facade while negotiating for ransom on the side.

Is there any evidence that the kidnapping in Nigeria was carried out by BH?

I don't doubt that there are links between AQIM and BH... I'd be surprised if there weren't, though the nature and extent of those links is by no means clear. I'm not sure this is evidence of linkage, though... a lot more information would be required.

I'd hope the US in particular will be very wary of any attempt to use "AQ links" to bait them into greater involvement in the BH situation.

[KingJaja]

BH has a huge support base in Kano. Is it possible for BH and AQIM to operate in the same city without both organisations comparing notes? It seems highly unlikely.

In my humble opinion, this is the surest sign that BH and AQIM are collaborating. The timing is striking - a few days after BH mounted its most spectacular show of force, a german engineer was kidnapped, in the same town.

[Chowing]

BH has a huge support base in Kano. Is it possible for BH and AQIM to operate in the same city without both organisations comparing notes? It seems highly unlikely.

In my humble opinion, this is the surest sign that BH and AQIM are collaborating. The timing is striking - a few days after BH mounted its most spectacular show of force, a german engineer was kidnapped, in the same town.

AQIM is extending its reach throughout West Africa. Both BH and AQIM have everything to gain from this linkage. The Nigerian people have a lot to loose by it.

AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia. They were so well armed that the Malian military was unable to make any headway against them. The military says they were not properly resourced by the Toure's government in Bamako so they stood little chance of defeating the separatist rebels. That, at least in their statements, is the reason for the coup in Mali.

I realize it is difficult to make comparisons between any two situations in the world, yet I cannot help but wonder if the Nigerian military and police feel under resourced by Goodluck Jonathan? How angry are they at being a frequent target of BH, yet seeming impotent to put BH to flight? Surely some have paid attention to what has happened in Mali.

The Nigerian president has far too much support in the south for any security forces to take action against him. However, will the time come when the police say, enough is enough, we cannot carry on with such a lack of resources and simply walk away or go on strike.

[davidbfpo]

Chowing commented:
AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia.

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

Can you please respond on the Mali thread, where the two posts have been copied to.

[Stan]

AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia.

Chowing,
Do you have a link to this source ?

To echo David's post, Gaddafi mercenaries are behind the coup in Mali and have nothing to do with AQ or BH. However, as was posted earlier, the flood of Libyan weapons is a valid concern to the Nigerian government as well as all of Africa.

[tequila]

Chowing,
Do you have a link to this source ?

To echo David's post, Gaddafi mercenaries are behind the coup in Mali and have nothing to do with AQ or BH. However, as was posted earlier, the flood of Libyan weapons is a valid concern to the Nigerian government as well as all of Africa.

Hold the phone on that one ... I think certain elements of the Malian military are behind the coup. The only argument they've put forward so far indicates that they blame the Malian executive for not equipping them properly to fight a northern Touareg insurgency - those Touaregs are the former Gaddafi mercs, not the Malian coup makers.

Now the Malian president has accused the Touareg insurgents of being backed by AQIM:

http://www.echoroukonline.com/ara/articles/124808.html?print

And I suppose that is part of the reason why AFRICOM was training Malian forces. But I have no idea if the U.S. has concrete intel on AQIM-Touareg links or if this is just part of the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership to strengthen all friendly Sahel militaries to fight AQIM.

[KingJaja]

I realize it is difficult to make comparisons between any two situations in the world, yet I cannot help but wonder if the Nigerian military and police feel under resourced by Goodluck Jonathan? How angry are they at being a frequent target of BH, yet seeming impotent to put BH to flight? Surely some have paid attention to what has happened in Mali.

The police has always been under resourced, but the army has always beaten Boko Haram decisively in one on one encounters. Policemen have been known to go AWOL or refuse to put on their uniforms.

The Nigerian Military is much more competent than the Malian Military.

[KingJaja]

And I suppose that is part of the reason why AFRICOM was training Malian forces. But I have no idea if the U.S. has concrete intel on AQIM-Touareg links or if this is just part of the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership to strengthen all friendly Sahel militaries to fight AQIM.

Said it earlier, by singularly focusing on terrorism, a host of other more complex and interwoven phenomena are not dealt with sufficiently. As it stands, the entire basis for AFRICOM's Trans-Sahara Counter-terrorism Partnership needs to be reconsidered.

[Stan]

Now the Malian president has accused the Touareg insurgents of being backed by AQIM:

And I suppose that is part of the reason why AFRICOM was training Malian forces. But I have no idea if the U.S. has concrete intel on AQIM-Touareg links or if this is just part of the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership to strengthen all friendly Sahel militaries to fight AQIM.

Tequila,
You're right, ATT did that nearly 4 years ago and garnered Obama's support and our tax dollars.




Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.

About 3 years ago the President of Mali was unable to abscond with funds for development and pledged a total struggle against AQIM (that, as you and I know got him the POTUS' blessings and OUR cash). He also declared, in the same sentence, that his troops were not equipped nor trained for the counter terrorism task at hand (that he picked and decided to perform).

Enter AFRICOM :rolleyes:

[Stan]

The police has always been under resourced, but the army has always beaten Boko Haram decisively in one on one encounters. Policemen have been known to go AWOL or refuse to put on their uniforms.

The Nigerian Military is much more competent than the Malian Military.

Jaja,
Good point. What keeps BH from going after the military other than shear size and far more firepower ? Playing with law enforcement has been their goal and quasi revenge, but attacking say 85,000 trained troops may be a bit harder than a bunch of cops.

[Stan]

Said it earlier, by singularly focusing on terrorism, a host of other more complex and interwoven phenomena are not dealt with sufficiently. As it stands, the entire basis for AFRICOM's Trans-Sahara Counter-terrorism Partnership needs to be reconsidered.

Not to put a damper on your quest for AFRICOM, but the program you are referring to started in 2001 under EUCOM.

The basis for the TSCTI was little more than a follow-up to the Pan Sahel Initiative (PSI). Supposedly, the US would train and equip a rapid-reaction company in Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The problem then and now is the partners to include Nigeria blew it when the funds ran out and they were expected to carry the ball and improve their relations in the region.

The USA blew it thinking we could influence dictators with money and training. What they did was simple...




Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.


Jeez folks, this is not rocket science :rolleyes:

[KingJaja]

How much is the Nigerian army expected to do? Contribute to Liberia and Sierra Leone, police Darfur, contribute to Somalia (we are out of that thankfully), police the Niger Delta and fight Boko Haram?

[KingJaja]

When the army is used against the populace. The populace doesn't usually remember that whoever trained the army had the "best of intentions". Especially when the populace is Islamic and the trainers are American.

[Dayuhan]

What keeps BH from going after the military other than shear size and far more firepower ? Playing with law enforcement has been their goal and quasi revenge, but attacking say 85,000 trained troops may be a bit harder than a bunch of cops.

Do people in the affected area hate cops more than they hate soldiers? Rebel groups sometimes target police because the populace loathes the police, and killing them wins friends.

For a group using terror tactics, good cops are probably a bigger threat than soldiers... street level networks and the ability to generate fast intel mean more than firepower in that fight, and good cops have that... of course in most of the developing world good cops are not very common!

[Stan]

How much is the Nigerian army expected to do? Contribute to Liberia and Sierra Leone, police Darfur, contribute to Somalia (we are out of that thankfully), police the Niger Delta and fight Boko Haram?

I couldn't agree with you more and do see your valid points.

When half of Africa was signing on to TSCTI, most of the former Eastern European nations were doing the same with far smaller assets. Hell, we are still doing "it" and can't afford nor support most of the initiatives with barely 1.4 million people ! There are more disasters than success stories.

The Nigerian Army is considered to be number 2 on the continent in quality and shear size. A ton of stuff goes along with that prestige and the Nigerian government signs on for things it can't pay for. Is President Jonathan expected to turn all of those promises around into a more realistic approach ?

[Stan]

When the army is used against the populace. The populace doesn't usually remember that whoever trained the army had the "best of intentions". Especially when the populace is Islamic and the trainers are American.

That's the part I hated most.

There's a great strategy research project by USMC LTC Mary Jo Choate here (http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB627.pdf). She does a great job of filling in the blanks where most of the USG has even begun to comprehend.

She should have wrote this in 85 and we may have had far less Sierra to deal with (SIGH).

[Stan]

Do people in the affected area hate cops more than they hate soldiers? Rebel groups sometimes target police because the populace loathes the police, and killing them wins friends.

I can't speak for Nigeria, but in the Congo the military are the rebels and the police are still hated by the populace. I suppose if it was the military that day, that shot a motorcyclist for not wearing a helmet :rolleyes:, and it was the military that went on the offensive, perhaps BH would have targeted the military. Obviously targeting an equally armed, trained and far larger foe would be much more difficult that randomly bombing and targeting an untrained (in counter terrorism) police force or church goers on Sundays :wry:


For a group using terror tactics, good cops are probably a bigger threat than soldiers... street level networks and the ability to generate fast intel mean more than firepower in that fight, and good cops have that... of course in most of the developing world good cops are not very common!

You'll need a cop to answer that. I don't actually know any good African cops. I can only think like a soldier and only imagine if say a company or two went on a manhunt for BH, there would be a ton of collateral damage and far fewer BH guys around.

[Dayuhan]

I can't speak for Nigeria, but in the Congo the military are the rebels and the police are still hated by the populace.

Communist rebels here used to target the police, not because the police were a threat to them but because their target market had an extreme (and largely justified) dislike for the police. Wouldn't know if that's the case elsewhere, just wondering...


I can only think like a soldier and only imagine if say a company or two went on a manhunt for BH, there would be a ton of collateral damage and far fewer BH guys around.

Far fewer BH guys around, yes... if the companies were looking in the right place, and if the BH guys were still around when they got there. In many places (Nigeria may or may not be different) these operations are often far from secret and it's often not that difficult for the targets to become elsewhere. Then they sit back and watch while the soldiers kick around the locals and get them even more pissed off at the government. If BH has informants in the military or the capacity to monitor troop movements it will be difficult to pin them down like that.

Again, Nigeria may be different but around here the overwhelming firepower rarely has any real effect. What works (on the rare occasions when it's done) is developing good intel on safe houses, movements, leadership structures etc and moving on individuals and small units before they have a chance to respond.

[Stan]

Morning !


Communist rebels here used to target the police, not because the police were a threat to them but because their target market had an extreme (and largely justified) dislike for the police. Wouldn't know if that's the case elsewhere, just wondering....

The police have not shown any noteworthy capability nor energy. Their forensics on post blast barely exist, so each event is like starting from scratch. There will be common denominators which in practice make things clearer and easier. Not CSI Miami, just sound practices and principles the remainder of the world uses.


Far fewer BH guys around, yes... if the companies were looking in the right place, and if the BH guys were still around when they got there. In many places (Nigeria may or may not be different) these operations are often far from secret and it's often not that difficult for the targets to become elsewhere. Then they sit back and watch while the soldiers kick around the locals and get them even more pissed off at the government. If BH has informants in the military or the capacity to monitor troop movements it will be difficult to pin them down like that.

Again, Nigeria may be different but around here the overwhelming firepower rarely has any real effect. What works (on the rare occasions when it's done) is developing good intel on safe houses, movements, leadership structures etc and moving on individuals and small units before they have a chance to respond.

Concur, it will not be that easy and certainly moving around like an ape in the china closet will draw attention and further erode any positive reputation the military may have with the general population.

However, being persistently hunted and having to constantly be on the watch and move to yet another safe house has some benefit. BH won't be making IEDs or planning while on the go. And each time a safe house is ransacked, there'll be stuff left behind and forensic evidence.

As far as firepower goes, I was referring more to countering any BH attack than to proactive destruction.

[Dayuhan]

Morning !

Afternoon in my time zone!


The police have not shown any noteworthy capability nor energy. Their forensics on post blast barely exist, so each event is like starting from scratch. There will be common denominators which in practice make things clearer and easier. Not CSI Miami, just sound practices and principles the remainder of the world uses.

Even with zero forensic capacity they could do it the old fashioned way: work informants into the group and use networks of informants in the areas where the group is active. Find the bomb-makers and the key decision-making and recruitment nodes and go after them. Assuming, of course, that the motivation is there.

[KingJaja]

I couldn't agree with you more and do see your valid points.

When half of Africa was signing on to TSCTI, most of the former Eastern European nations were doing the same with far smaller assets. Hell, we are still doing "it" and can't afford nor support most of the initiatives with barely 1.4 million people ! There are more disasters than success stories.

The Nigerian Army is considered to be number 2 on the continent in quality and shear size. A ton of stuff goes along with that prestige and the Nigerian government signs on for things it can't pay for. Is President Jonathan expected to turn all of those promises around into a more realistic approach ?

Jonathan hasn't been as enthusiastic as Obasanjo (a former military man) about throwing Nigeria's weight around. We spent a lot of blood and treasure in Liberia and Sierra Leone and got nothing in return except excessive nitpicking from Western journalists about how crappy our Army is. The response from many Nigerians is "okay, we accept our army is crappy, you can go ahead and get the US Army to do the job!".

The story is that Tony Blair "saved" Sierra Leone alone and the Nigerian Army had no role whatsoever. We say okay, well and good. Last year, Cote D'Ivoire was in turmoil and Jonathan refused to get involved. I cannot see the Nigerian Army getting involved in Mali.

Yes, everyone in Nigeria hates the police and attacking the police is merely plucking a low hanging fruit. The army is more respected, because they tend to keep to themselves - they don't walk on the streets everyday, collecting bribes from motorists.

However, the more the army is brought out on the street, the more it tends to be despised.

[KingJaja]

Every one knows that the Nigerian police is up to par. The problem is that a lot of decision makers like it that way.

A competent, more professional police force will be much more difficult to manipulate, to use to rig elections, to act as a personal army for corrupt politicians.

Could Boko Haram result in a reformation of the police force? Yes, but only if politicians have exhausted all possibilities and discovered that the BH problem can only be dealt with by reforming the police. If BH can be dealt with by brutal repression and bribery, the police will be left as is - politicians like it that way and that is the game they play well.

Reforms will mean entering uncharted territory. Our politicians don't like that kind of uncertainty.

[KingJaja]

Al Qaeda will be stupid not to establish a substantial presence in Nigeria. The Nigerian state is a joke.

http://zainabusman.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/nigerias-porous-borders-in-pictures/

http://zainabusman.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/niger_nigeria-border.jpg?w=645

[Chowing]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/world/africa/in-nigeria-boko-haram-targets-schools.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss


MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — The teenager in the immaculate white robe stood in the ruins of what had been his school. There were no classrooms, no desks or chairs, no intact blackboards — there was, in fact, no longer any reason for him to be there.

Yet the teenager, Aruna Mustapha, and a friend had come to sign in anyway, just as they did every morning before the fire, expressing a hunger for education and a frustration with the insurgents bent on preventing it.

“We can’t stay at home any longer; we want to come to school, to learn,” explained Aruna, 16. “I’m fed up. I want to be in school.”
.......
In recent weeks, at least eight schools have been firebombed, apparently the work of Boko Haram, the Islamist group waging a deadly war against the Nigerian government and suspected of cultivating links with Al Qaeda’s affiliates in the region. The group’s very name is a rallying cry against schools — “Boko” means “book” or “Western learning” in the Hausa language, and “haram” is Arabic for forbidden — but it has never gone after them to this degree before, analysts say.



Reminds me of the Swahili proverb that says, "When two bull elephants fight, it is the grass that gets trampled."

It is the children who are the grass in the case and their future is being trampled into dust.

[KingJaja]

A knew this would happen, eventually ..........


The U.S. Embassy in Nigeria's capital says there were gunshots fired near its offices, though no one was injured.

A statement from the embassy Monday said it "believed there were shots fired" and that police arrested two people afterward. Abuja police spokesman Jimoh Moshood said he had no information about any shooting in the area, nor any knowledge of any arrests.


Security remains a concern in Nigeria as a radical Islamist sect known as Boko Haram continues a wave of killings across the nation's Muslim north. A suicide car bombing by the sect in August attacked the United Nations' headquarters in Abuja — which sits on the same road as the embassy.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/shots-fired-us-embassy-nigeria-injuries-16004350#.T3DFzGEgcmc

[Stan]

A bit too soon to distiguish between BH, criminals or even the ordinary citizen.

Considering how many firearms are listed here (http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/nigeria) for Nigeria, it does not come as a surprise that someone heard gunfire.

Odd this,


Security guard at Post 1 of the US embassy confirmed the incident in a telephone interview. The guard, speaking on the basis of anonymity, said gun fire was heard in the vicinity of the embassy and some commotion shortly after.

He added, however, that the situation has been taken care of and Nigeria police forces are on ground to maintain order. There were no casualties from the attacks, the security officer said.

Abuja police command spokesman, Jimoh Moshood, told press that he had no knowledge of arrests.


Not sure if you've ever attempted a conversation with Post One before (Marine Guards that is), but the above is highly unlikely to have taken place.

[KingJaja]

Stan,

I have lived in Abuja. One doesn't normally hear gunfire in the vicinity of the US embassy. Also remember that the US embassy is in the same area as the bombed UN headquarters.

[Stan]

Stan,

I have lived in Abuja. One doesn't normally hear gunfire in the vicinity of the US embassy. Also remember that the US embassy is in the same area as the bombed UN headquarters.

Jaja, at nearly a mile away building to building, I don't know if I could say the embassy is in the same area as the UN building. But, we won't quibble over distances ;)

Not sure how much stock you have in The Daily Trust (http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=158114:shooting-near-us-embassy-sparks-panic&catid=2:lead-stories&Itemid=8), but this recent article sounds a little easier to swallow:


There was panic at the diplomatic zone in Abuja yesterday after sounds were heard which U.S. embassy officials said were of gunshots fired near the well-guarded mission.

But the police said there were no gunshots and witnesses said the sounds were of fireworks set off by teenagers at an undeveloped plot near the American embassy.

Then there's this half-baked Press Release (http://photos.state.gov/libraries/nigeria/487468/pdfs/PressRelease-UnitedStatesMissionNigeriasPressStatement.pdf) from the embassy (I'm embarrassed to even be an American reading this garbage - waste of paper IMO):

But, then, a happy and relatively speaking funny ending as quoted:


A petty trader at the location said in pidgin English, “I hear noise and see smoke; people dey run and I think say na knock out and people say na gun shot, naim I pick my egg roll and Kunu and run too.”

[KingJaja]

Why would teenagers set off fireworks by this time of the year? It is neither Easter nor Christmas. (We don't just set off fireworks for no reason and given the very tense atmosphere in Abuja, I doubt they'd be stupid enough to do that).

Secondly, nobody accepts what the police say without taking a massive dollop of salt. They have been shown to incompetent (Bomb attacks on Police HQ in Abuja and UN HQ in Abuja). So they are motivated to wish this away.

Anyway, I don't know, but I strongly suspect that it was a more malign thing than teenagers setting off fireworks. What the police did was most probably to arrest a few passers by and claim they are responsible for setting off "fireworks".

[Stan]

Like I said, not sure how much stock you have in the Daily Trust.


A police officer attached to the U.S. embassy said they received the report of the sounds like gunshots at about 2pm.

“We went round the area (diplomatic zone) to find out what happened together with some SSS officials. We searched the bush nearby and found fireworks casing which we examined and found it was used not long ago. We questioned three people around the area and later released them when we found that they were not behind the fireworks,” he said.


As far as kids with pyrotechnics go, we face that challenge each and every day regardless of the season, climate, holiday, etc.

An abandoned lot, regardless of the neighbors seems pretty tempting even at my age :D

[KingJaja]

I might be wrong and the Daily Trust is quoting the police.

I just don't know. It is perfectly possible that teens could be fooling around, I just don't know. Never heard of fireworks around any embassy before in Nigeria and the US embassy isn't exactly in a heavily populated area. It is a fortress like building in a semi-isolated part of Abuja (near the Chinese embassy which is also quite impressive - somebody is trying to make a statement here).

[KingJaja]

Fallout out from Boko Haram. They expect the effects to be felt at the end of the year. Can anyone please explain further what the impact is likely to be?


THE National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has warned of a possible famine in the country, following a massive displacement of small and large-scale farmers from the North-East as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency in the area.

To curb further migration of farmers and livestock breeders, NEMA has constituted an Inter-Agency Contingency Committee (IACC).

The warning was made in the “2012 NEMA Report on Boko Haram Insurgency and Disasters in the North-East” made available to The Guardian yesterday in Maiduguri, Borno State.

The report read in part: “Nigeria may face famine by the end of this year because most of the small-scale farmers and big-time farmers in the North are threatened by the Boko Haram attacks. More than 65 per cent of such farmers have already migrated to the southern parts of Nigeria, fearing that the insecurity to both lives and property, including their farmlands and livestock, continues to persist for nearly three years.”

It further stated: “The Boko Haram attacks on these farmers who produce beans, onions, pepper, maize, rice, livestock and catfish in the Lake Chad area for the southern states in the country, have forced them to migrate since the insurgency broke out in Borno State in July 2009.”

The report also stated that the Boko Haram attacks had caused “a wholesale shift to a terrorism-focused approach to disasters in the North-East states,” comprising Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Gombe, Bauchi and Taraba.

In addition, the report disclosed that the zonal office of NEMA had received an alert from the military on the need to prepare humanitarian contingency frame-work on the implications of the United Nations (UN) Peace-keeping troops withdrawals from Chad and Sudan, as well as the relative peace that might return to Central African Republic.

The displaced and idle rebels from these countries, it is feared, may see Nigeria as a fertile ground to explore for their nefarious activities, especially the border-states in the North-East.

The NEMA report stated that the insurgents, who invaded from neighbouring countries, have attacked several villages in Kala/Balge Local Council of Borno State.

“The foreign invaders imposed various sum of levies and taxes on the villagers ranging from N1 million to N3 million, according to the sizes of the village,” it stated.

The report also stated that the post-election violence displaced 10,000 people in the sub-region, with Bauchi State having the highest of 4,300 while Yobe and Gombe states had 507 and 498 in that order.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=81363:food-scarcity-looms-as-farmers-flee-boko-haram-attacks&catid=1:national&Itemid=559

[Stan]

I might be wrong and the Daily Trust is quoting the police.

I believe they are quoting the local hire cop at the embassy. Those tend to be better fed, paid and trained, and, generally don't BS the regional security officer.


I just don't know. It is perfectly possible that teens could be fooling around, I just don't know. Never heard of fireworks around any embassy before in Nigeria and the US embassy isn't exactly in a heavily populated area. It is a fortress like building in a semi-isolated part of Abuja (near the Chinese embassy which is also quite impressive - somebody is trying to make a statement here).

I checked out the area with our maps today. There is literally tons of room for young boys to get into trouble around the embassy - did you not do stupid things in your childhood ? May have to send you back to the States and show you how we blew up jack-o'-lanterns right across the street from the White House :D

As for the fortresses - remember the theory about the weakest link ?
The UN could pay better attention to why we don't have any more vehicles speeding into our embassies. No straight path - real simple stuff that a lot of people had to die for before we figured out the obvious.

[KingJaja]

The Nigerian name quoted is Northern, and Muslim. Doesn't help North-South, Muslim-Christian relationships.


WASHINGTON — The U.S. has hit two Iranian companies with sanctions for helping Iranian special forces export arms.

Tuesday’s action also penalized a Nigerian shipping agent and three members of Iran’s hardline Quds Force.

The Treasury Department said Yas Air and Quds officials Esmail Ghani, Sayyid Ali Akbar Tabatabaei and Hosein Aghajani shipped weapons to the Mideast and Africa as Iran sought to “evade international sanctions and export violence.” The airline moved assault rifles and mortar shells to Syria under cover of humanitarian aid.

The department cited Behineh Trading’s involvement in a shipment of grenades, rockets and mortars seized in Nigeria in 2010. Nigerian agent Ali Abbas Usman Jega was described as complicit.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-slaps-sanctions-on-2-iranian-companies-3-quds-force-officials-nigerian-shipping-agent/2012/03/27/gIQAbziEeS_story.html

[Stan]

The Nigerian name quoted is Northern, and Muslim. Doesn't help North-South, Muslim-Christian relationships.


Removing illicit arms and larger caliber projectiles from waring factions (among other things and destinations) was the intent of the sanctions, at least according to the Department of the Treasury's website here (http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1506.aspx). But no, it probably won't do much for the current impasse in Nigeria.


Behineh Trading, the shipping company, and the Nigerian agent designated today were involved in a weapons shipment seized in Nigeria in late October 2010. This weapons shipment – orchestrated by the IRGC-QF and intended for The Gambia – is part of a larger pattern of Iranian lethal aid shipments to clients in Africa and around the world.

This however has some semblance of hope:

Bomb factory discovered in Kogi (http://www.tribune.com.ng/index.php/front-page-news/38239-bomb-factory-discovered-in-kogi-well-flush-out-terrorists-army)

[KingJaja]

Nothing illustrates a state in retreat/a failing state like this factoid - up to 70 percent of all schools in Lagos are privately owned! Think about it, in spite of the massive amounts of money available to Nigerian government over the last decade, the government has failed to (a) either provide the infrastructure for education or (b) adequately train teachers.

There are about 1.9 million children of school age in Lagos and out of that number only about 400,000 are enrolled in public schools. Since the literacy rate in Lagos is about 92 percent, one can assume that at least 1.4 million children are enrolled in private schools!

Lagos is the richest part of Nigeria. The situation in Lagos should give you an idea of what the difficulties would be in Northern Nigeria. Spending money on that part of the country simply won't do the trick. Government lacks the capacity to adequately administer Nigeria. Very troubling.


Lagos — A peep into the result of census of schools in Lagos conducted towards the end of last year has shown that most of the schools in the state are privately owned.

A comprehensive result of the census of primary and secondary schools conducted by the Lagos State Government in collaboration with Education Sector Support Programme in Nigeria (ESSPIN) beginning last year November would be made known in a later date.

ESSPIN Lagos State Team Leader, Dr. Gboyega Ilusanya, disclosed that as many as 70 per cent of all the schools in the state are owned by private operators. He, however, emphasised that the census is basically for data collection intended to develop the sector through strategic planning.

Ilusanya, who was guest at a recent media-training event in Lagos, also noted that the private schools were more willing to be part of the census, because they were assured that the exercise was not going to be used to deal with them for defaulting on standards.

He said the result of the census would aid in the provision of necessary information on enrolment, location and name-search for both public and private schools operating in the state.

EMIS State Specialist of ESSPIN (Kwara and Lagos), Dr. Joanna Harma, who explained the rationale for the schools' census in an interview with Daily Independent said, "The private school growth in Lagos has been spontaneous and unassisted by government, and these schools' ability to serve the population at nearly all socio-economic levels is highly significant. Therefore, the contributions of private schools needed to be recognised and better understood."

She remarked that the federal government's estimation of about 1.9 million children of school age in the state cannot be adequately backed by any document, adding that the state government can only account for 400,000 in public schools, meaning the rest of the children are out of the school or in private schools.

She also doused fears that the exercise was meant for inspection purposes and tax collection, adding that the data was basically to be used for planning purposes and possibly for designing intervention programmes to support private school initiatives in the state.

Ilusanya noted, "There is a peculiar issue in Lagos. The number of children in public primary school is documented by government. At the point of transition to Junior Secondary School, the state usually had more than 100 per cent transition. If we are expecting 100 from public schools to move into JSS or SSS classes in schools owned by government, we end up having more than 100 per cent enrolment. At that time one begins to wonder where they are coming from. This, most times, destabilises government plans, programmes and strategy for learning because the data of likely number that may come from the private schools is not accurate or non-existent and these are important and invaluable information needed for planning

[KingJaja]

I know that US foreign policy towards Israel is heavily influenced by evangelicals. What impact would these people have on US Africa policy if current Islamist inspired terrorism is presented as a struggle between Islam and Christianity for souls in one of the World's largest "mission grounds".

When are we likely to start hearing from Franklin Graham?

I recall that Gbagbo was presented as "Christian" being undermined by "Muslims". And that a serving US parliamentarian was openly in support of Gbagbo. Gbagbo is small potatoes, but Nigeria with its mega pastors and TBN (Trinity Broadcasting Network) superstars may be another matter all together.

[Dayuhan]

I know that US foreign policy towards Israel is heavily influenced by evangelicals.

The actual degree of influence is very much debatable. Lots of factors driving US support for Israel, difficult to say exactly how much influence any given one actually has.


What impact would these people have on US Africa policy if current Islamist inspired terrorism is presented as a struggle between Islam and Christianity for souls in one of the World's largest "mission grounds".

My guess would be none. There's a very strong resistance in the US to involvement in African conflicts, it's seen as a black hole from which no positive escape is possible. I doubt that the evangelicals could overcome that resistance, or even that they'd try very hard.

[KingJaja]

Seems like Boko Haram again. Later reports suggest two suicide car bombs. Quite worrying as Northern Nigeria seems to have no shortage of suicide bombers.


(Reuters) - A car bomb exploded in the north Nigerian town of Kaduna on Easter Sunday, killing several people, after security officers stopped the driver from approaching a church, witnesses and emergency services said.

"A suicide bomber in a vehicle was moving towards the ECWA Church and the All Nations Christian Assembly," said Tony Udo, a Kaduna resident.

"Security agents accosted and repelled him. While he was driving away, the bomb went off at Junction Road, near the Stadium roundabout, killing the bomber and some commercial motorcyclists," Udo told Reuters.

"The blast from the bomb also shattered the windows of the church, some nearby houses and vehicles parked nearby. The area has been condoned off by security agents," Udo added.

Nigeria has ramped up security across the largely Muslim north before the Christian Easter holiday because of fears of a repeat of attacks by the Islamist sect Boko Haram that killed dozens on Christmas Day last year.

One of the sect's Christmas Day bomb attacks in the north killed at least 37 people and wounded more than 50 at a church.

Boko Haram, a movement loosely styled on Afghanistan's Taliban, has killed hundreds this year in bomb and gun attacks that mostly target police, the military and the government.

The sect says it wants its imprisoned members released and sharia, Islamic law, applied throughout Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation.

In the remote northeast town of Maiduguri, Boko Haram's homeland, the military outnumbered the public on some streets on Sunday.

"Patrol is being intensified to forestall any breakdown in law and order," a spokesman for the joint military task force told Reuters.

In Nigeria's second biggest city Kano, where coordinated attacks in January killed 186 people, authorities deployed trucks of soldiers and a helicopter to try to prevent violence.

"I will stay away from church because we have been told by our pastor to be careful. We are afraid, everybody is afraid because we don't know when the next attack will come," said Jenifer Paul, a housewife in Kano.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/08/uk-nigeria-bomb-idUKBRE83705P20120408

[KingJaja]

CAN stands for Christian association of Nigeria. How significant is this statement? Very. It means that the Christian community will assume that the US government is allied with "Northern elements" sympathetic to Boko Haram.

There are two very prominent US friends of the Northern elite - John Campbell and Jean Herskovits and they are seen by the Christian community as (a) influencing US policy in Nigeria and (b) sympathetic to Boko Haram.

I think a wiser course of action for the US is to maintain a low profile (like the Brits) and allow Nigerians to sort themselves out. Telling the Nigerian people "what their problems are" or that "you understand the Nigerian situation better than they do" or "telling them how to solve their problems" openly was always going to backfire.

In the first place the US doesn't know jack about Nigeria and even less about its internal politics. Statements may be true, but politically uncalled for. The US hasn't learned the importance of keeping out of the internal politics of deeply polarised nations.


PRESIDENT, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor has said the association reject the views of the American govern-ment as expressed by its Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr Johnnie Carson, on Boko Haram.

CAN, in a press release made available to the Nigerian Tribune, said it rejected the reason being pedlled by the American government and some Boko Haram apologists in the North that poverty and injustice was the spark for the action of the sect members.

Insisting that Boko Haram was a product of extreme religious ideology, CAN said the kind of arms and ammunition in the hands of the sect could only be purchased by those with heavy financial power.

“A fair comparison of any other region with the North shows that the section of the North referred to by Carson has been the greatest bene-ficiary of the project called Nigeria.

“The north has been in leadership for the greater part of Nigeria’s Golden Jubilee and its greatest annoyance seems to be the displacement from this position, because this same section of the region believes that they are born to rule,” the release said.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/39162-can-rejects-us-view-on-boko-haram

[KingJaja]

For your information.


Abuja — Minister of State for Defence, Mrs. Olusola Obada, yesterday confirmed speculations that weapons stolen from Libyan armoury have found their way to Nigeria.

In the dying days of the regime of Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, the armoury was looted and some sophisticated weapons were reportedly stolen.

There had been unconfirmed reports that some of the looted weapons, which included surface-to-air launchers, had found their way into Nigeria and might be part of the Boko Haram armoury.

Obada, speaking in Abuja when a delegation of the National Defence University of Pakistan visited the Ministry of Defence, confirmed the report but expressed confidence that Nigeria is at peace with all countries of the world and, therefore, free from any form of external security threats, especially from its immediate neighbours.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201204110266.html

[Chowing]

Boko Haram puts a three month window on bring down Goodluck and the government. Could this be an empty threat? Not sure that many Nigerians would take it as such.


Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram also Jama’atu Ahl-Sunnati Lil Da’awati Wal Jihad intends to bring down the government and "devour" President Goodluck Jonathan within three months, its purported leader said in his second al Qaeda-style video

http://elombah.com/index.php/latest-news/10549-boko-haram-threatens-to-devour-president-jonathan-within-three-months

[KingJaja]

In three months they are going to attempt something very dynamic. If they pull it off, it gets very interesting and dangerous.

1. Any attempt on the life of Jonathan by Boko Haram will be interpreted as an attempt by the Northern Muslim elite to terminate his regime. There will be horrible reprisal attacks.

2. Jonathan is an Ijaw from the Niger Delta and is quite close to Niger Delta militants (he helped broker the last cease fire). Expect Nigeria's crude oil production to be affected if he is harmed.

3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.

[KingJaja]

Suicide bombers kill eight yesterday in coordinated attacks on media houses. Two attacks at Abuja and Kaduna.


The media yesterday got a taste of the violence in some parts of Nigeria. Eight people died and 14 others were injured in a suicide bomb explosion at THISDAY office in Abuja and Kaduna where a building housing the newspaper as well as The Sun and Moments was attacked.
In the accident, three people died and two were injured. A suspect was arrested.
The bomber was among the casualties of the Kaduna incident.
The bombing also destroyed 10 vehicles and left the Press Hall badly damaged.
The once beautiful edifice became a shadow of itself - shattered windows, broken walls and shredded copies of part of today’s edition.
The imposing gate leading to the devastated Press Hall that houses the company’s Goss Community printing machine was destroyed.
The staff gate was severely damaged and partly burnt. The generator beside the gate was burnt. A part of the fence by the gate collapsed, felling a tree.
The wreckage of the suicide bomb vehicle was buried inside the devastated Press Hall. Policemen and aid workers were battling to retrieve it.
The newsroom was in tatters – upturned tables, smashed seats and crushed computers.
All the glasses in the building, including doors, were shattered. Parts of the roof were blown off with no ceiling left hanging.
The premises was strewn with pieces of shrapnel from the bomb laden vehicle and broken glasses.
A crater, which must have resulted from the impact of the blast, was seen about two meters from where the SUV was lodged. Parts of the wall of the building from where the car entered the premises caved in.
The huge loss drew tears from many workers and sympathisers. For about six hours, business was brought to a halt at Jabi Motor Park , the bustling transit station opposite the THISDAY office.
Islamist sect Boko Haram last night claimed respionsibility for the bombings. It threatened to target other journalists.
http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/news/44602-suicide-bombers-kill-eight-in-attacks-on-media-houses.html

I watched snippets from the Southern Nigeria economic summit. It seems that the political leadership and people of that part of Nigeria are of the firm conviction that Boko Haram is a tool by Muslim politicians from Northern Nigeria to destabilise the Jonathan administration and thus position themselves for the presidency in 2015.

I don't think the risk to Nigeria is the presence of Al Qaida, the risk is in the reaction to Boko Haram. This is Africa, and if the rest of Nigeria gangs up to "punish the North" for permitting the presence of Boko Haram, it will not be pretty.

Right now, I am hearing a lot that gives me cause for worry. Muslim Northerners, understandably are extremely worried. There is a lot vitriol on the airwaves. People are blunt in their assessment of who they view as the "problem of Nigeria".

The Jonathan administration is weak and weak administrations tend to deflect blame on others.

Dangerous times.

[KingJaja]

Interesting read....


Boko Haram’s operations during the period of fall 2011 to spring 2012 began with the major series of suicide attacks, bombings and targeted murders in the Yobe state capital of Damaturu,[6] which killed at least 100 people. These operations were clearly designed to expel Christians from northern mid-range towns. (Much of the Christian population of Maiduguri already fled the city during the previous period, fall 2010-spring 2011.) Anecdotally, it seems that the Damaturu and follow-up operations in the states bordering Boko Haram’s core region of Borno and Yobe have succeeded in causing the balance of the Christian population to flee.

The next series of operations focused on Jos and Abuja, both cities with a substantial expatriate population and good media coverage. These attacks occurred on Christmas Day 2011, again a symbolic date guaranteed to make headlines.[7] These operations used suicide attacks against churches and killed at least 25 people. It is a mystery as to why this attack came as a surprise given that Boko Haram had previously executed spectacular attacks on Christian targets on Christmas Day in 2010. In Jos and Abuja, however, in contradistinction to the Damaturu attacks (and others in the northeast), the Christian population is quite strong—even at a majority level—and therefore there is no chance that Boko Haram, lacking broader military options, can do anything other than provoke terror. There have also been major thematic attacks on Christian targets on January 5, 6, 10, 11, 24 (all in either Maiduguri, Adumawa or Jos), February 19 (Suleja, near Abuja), and February 25, 2012 (Abuja and Jos), of which the Jos attack was a suicide bombing.[8]

Boko Haram has managed to take a semi-dysfunctional society lacking basic security and the rule of law and drive it into a complete state of dysfunction where the only obvious means by which order can be re-established is through draconian state-security methods (akin to Algeria in the 1990s) or by acceding to the group’s demands. The latter option would indeed cause a civil war, as the Christians through fall 2011 and spring 2012 have become increasingly impatient with the lack of tangible governmental progress against Boko Haram. There is a strong danger of revenge attacks by Christians on a local ad hoc basis,[9] or even worse the creation of an equivalent vigilante group that could mirror Boko Haram’s tactics.

http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/boko-haram-escalates-attacks-on-christians-in-northern-nigeria

[KingJaja]

A LOT has been happening in Nigeria this past week, but since nobody is interested, I'll probably stop posting.


GUNMEN suspected to be Boko Haram members attacked students singing praises to herald church service inside the Bayero University, Kano, on Sunday, killing no fewer than 10 worshippers, while about 16 others sustained varying degrees of injury.

A professor, Andrew Leo, of Library Department, was among those killed in the bomb blast.

The university’s spokesman, Alhaji Mustapha Zaradeen confirmed the death of seven persons, who were mostly students and other worshippers from outside the university.

This is just as the chairman, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Kano State chapter, Bishop Ransom Bello, described the attack on students as barbaric.

The tragic event, which occurred at the old site of the university campus at about 8.30 a.m, caught the student unawares, as the invaders, who came on motorcycles, used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and guns to send the victims to their untimely death.

The attack appeared to be a coordinated one, as the gunmen stormed the two centres where students were worshipping.

The two places services were being held were the Lecture Theatre, where an interdenominational service was holding and the Sport complex, where Catholic faithful were gathered. However, the highest member of casualties was recorded at the Sport complex.

A source, who preferred anonymity, said the gunmen came through the backgate on the new campus road of the university and immediately went straight to the lecture theatre and the sport complex, threw IEDs and fired their guns at the same time.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/front-page-news/40093-professor-9-others-killed-as-terrorists-bomb-bayero-varsity

Another attack on a Church in Maiduguri on Sunday.


(Reuters) - Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram killed four people in an attack on a Sunday church service in the northeast town of Maiduguri, police said on Monday, adding to the death toll from a separate shooting in the country's second largest city Kano.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/30/us-nigeria-bokoharam-idUSBRE83T09420120430

Another attack this morning - extremely ominous because it appears that Boko Haram is moving down south. The police commissioner was targeted.


At least five people have been killed in a bomb attack on a police convoy in north-eastern Nigeria, police say.

"A bomber on a motorcycle rammed into the police rider [motorcycle escort]," a police spokesman said.

The attack in the normally quiet town of Jalingo comes a day after at least 20 people were killed at churches elsewhere in northern Nigeria.

No group has said it carried out the bombings but militant group Boko Haram has staged many such attacks.

It has carried out several suicide bombings across the mainly Muslim north of Nigeria, where it wants to establish Sharia law.

Some reports say local police commissioner Mamman Sule was targeted in the Jalingo attack.

Witnesses say Mr Sule survived the attack but that the huge explosion ripped through a nearby market and the local finance ministry offices, the AP news agency reports.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17895794

http://www.nigeriasite.com/images/nigeriamap.jpg

Mark out Maiduguri, Kano and Jalingo. Consider how far south Jalingo is. Is it possible that it is only a matter of time before Boko Haram moves further south?

Also remember that Nigeria is about the same size as Texas and California combined. It is a huge country. Boko Haram seems to have extensive logistical support.

We might be dealing with an organisation as well organised and potent as the Taliban in a few years.

[KingJaja]

Map illustrating Boko Haram's reach so far.

https://p.twimg.com/AruoHRNCIAIQ5YP.jpg

[Stan]

A LOT has been happening in Nigeria this past week, but since nobody is interested, I'll probably stop posting.


Hey Jaja !
That would be a shame but you are certainly entitled to your own decisions. It's not a lack of interest as most of us are quite busy. I have 5 teams in Africa from Libya to Brazzaville and taking care of them is priority One.


To date (http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/boko-haram-escalates-attacks-on-christians-in-northern-nigeria), the Nigerian government seems incapable of responding to Boko Haram, and through a series of mistakes has revealed what outside observers have long suspected: certain elements of the security forces and political leaders of Muslim-majority northern Nigeria are either complicit with Boko Haram’s operations, or they are taking a rather complacent view of its success.

Thanks for a good find and read ! You and I have had some varying views on BH and this guy (7,000 miles away) manged to put all of that together. I'm of the opinion that the Nigerian security are wallowing in their slight successes and let their guard down, and, you have pointed out many times that BH has contacts at every level.



3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.

As you may recall, I often wondered what keeps BH from going after all the foreigners - soft targets. It's clear their reach south is limited, but it also seems clear the foreigners are not their prime targets.

Keep posting :)

Regards, Stan

[davidbfpo]

The title is taken from this BBC News report from Maiduguri and the report opens with:
Jimeh Saleh from BBC Hausa returns to his home town of Maiduguri in the far north-east of Nigeria for the first time in almost a year - to find the city is a mere shell of its once lively self, following a spate of deadly attacks by the Boko Haram Islamist group.

Referring to the "people in the middle":
The soldiers are there to protect the residents of Maiduguri - but people seem united in their condemnation of the curfew and the militarisation of the streets. They accuse the soldiers of torture and other human rights violations.....After an attack, the soldiers go into neighbouring houses, and are said to indiscriminately beat up the male occupants. The army denies this is happening - nevertheless, it is a recurring cry that is hard to ignore.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17847718

[KingJaja]

Stan,

They hadn't gone after the news media in a big way - until last Thursday.

I still think they will eventually go after foreigners and Western interests and when they do so, they will go big.

What are they waiting for? They want to totally discredit the present administration (at least in the North) and to do so, they merely have to target the symbols of government and Churches to attract local sympathy.

You guys are failing to realise that for the majority of the largely illiterate Muslims in Nigeria, there is no distinction between the West and Christianity - one can substitute for another. If they can attack churches, they can easily attack Western interests.

[KingJaja]

David,

There are loads of young men from that part of Nigeria where I live in Lagos. To say that the economy of Northern Nigeria is in free-fall is an understatement.

One more year of Boko Haram and you may begin to see mass starvation.

[KingJaja]

Stan,

They are yet to cross the river, but they are getting close. They've been extremely successful and are likely to be more confident. They'll want to try something spectacular soon.

[KingJaja]

The government is losing the confidence of the Christian community in Nigeria. When confidence is lost, people tend to take matters in their own hands.


Dissatisfied with federal government's style of handling the security challenge posed by the spate of bombings and killing of innocent citizens occasioned by the insurgencies of a terrorist gang, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) yesterday pointedly told President Goodluck Jonathan to step aside if he couldn't put a stop to the mindless killings in the country.

Specifically reacting to the attacks on Christian worshippers in Kano and Borno states, CAN said, "We are telling President Goodluck Jonathan, if he has not done anything to put an end to this madness, then, he should know that there is trouble in his hand."

Meanwhile, Taraba State commissioner of police Mr. Maman Sule yesterday narrowly escaped death when a suicide bomber who laid ambush on the route to the commissioner's office thrust an improvised explosive device (IED), at his convoy.

Although the commissioner escaped unhurt, many security operatives on his entourage were not spared: 11 persons lost their lives in the attack.

But speaking with journalists in Kaduna, the spokesman of the northern CAN, Elder Sunday Oibe, also accused northern traditional rulers of the mindless killings in the region.

He said: "We are telling the emirs, traditional rulers and the political chieftains in the north that they are behind these things and they must bring the perpetrators to book"

"To us, we feel that government is just playing games and politics with the church and the church is not going to take it anymore because anybody who kills is a murderer or arsonist.

"Why is the government becoming helpless to bring these people to book? Is the government telling us that a particular tribe or religion is superior to every other person in this country?

"We are feeling serious pains and disappointment at the entire system called Nigeria. It is highly condemnable in the strongest term because these are innocent students who were sent to school by their parents to acquire education.

"They went to worship their God only for some people to come and sniff lives out of them. It is highly condemnable, it is not just condemnable, but we will not sit down and fold our arms to accept this madness any more.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201205010487.html

Very troubling. They are accusing Northern Muslim traditional rulers of complicity.

[KingJaja]

Chilling, bears the hallmarks of an Al Qaeda video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDqv6srmoI4

The translation (mainly deals with local issues).


Video has a background music in Hausa language, saying,” Nigerians, our name is not Boko Haram, we are Muslims, Ahlis sunnah”. The lyrics also said, “We attacked Thisday because we will never forget or forgive anyone who abused our prophet.”

First written message says the video is from ‘Public awareness department which presents; ‘Reasons for attacking Thisday Newspaper’

The Video also shows coverage of the suicide attack at Thisday office in Abuja.

It also shows a man wielding a rifle and reciting some prayer verses. Shots of the late leader of the sect Muhammad Yusuf, delivering a sermon, and in other clips, preaching, was shown.

Full transcription

This is a message from the public awareness department of the Jamatu Ahlis sunnah lil daawati wal jihad, a group engaged in jihad in Nigeria.

We wish to explain about the attack we carried out on Thisday Newspapers. Some of the reasons why we decided to attack some Media Houses, especially Thisday, is because the paper was used in dishonouring our prophet, Mohammad (SAW) during a beauty pageant in Kaduna in November 2002.

At that time, some people who called themselves leaders of Muslims came out to say they have forgiven those who committed the offence.

http://africanspotlight.com/2012/05/full-transcript-of-boko-harams-threat-to-attack-voa-guardian-daily-trust-others-premium-times/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Chowing]

Chilling, bears the hallmarks of an Al Qaeda video.



It was only a couple of weeks ago that BH said they would be causing extreme havoc and do something very extreme within the next three months. It seems they have begun. Every time that there is a short lull, it is followed by a series of bombings.
BH is committed to the long haul. The government continues to be unable to slow them down.

[Chowing]

http://world.myjoyonline.com/pages/nigeria/201205/85879.php


Meanwhile former Defence Minister, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma (rtd), yesterday, took a critical look at the heightened insecurity in Nigeria and concluded that the nation is on fire and tending towards the Somalia experience.

Gen. Danjuma who rarely comments on political issues warned at the 50th birthday anniversary of the publisher of Leadership newspaper, Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah, in Abuja, that the process of becoming like Somalia has started in Nigeria and that firm measures must be taken in the immediate to halt it.

His words: “I used to tell myself that we shall muddle through but believe me, in the last two months, I began to wonder – our house is on fire. Nigeria is becoming like Somalia. The Somaliasation of our country is going on now. We have to sit down and tell ourselves the truth. Our house is on fire, let us not deceive ourselves. We must tell ourselves the truth”.

When the Defense Minister speaks honestly in such a vain, it seems he has about used up all of his options and has seen not change. This is a very pessimistic statement - a sign of real trouble.

[Chowing]

Just noticed that it was the former Defense Minister who was quoted in my previous post. sorry.

[Stan]

Every time that there is a short lull, it is followed by a series of bombings.

Good observation. The so called short lull could be better described as the security elements wallowing in slight success while the BH reassesses their intel and strikes.


BH is committed to the long haul. The government continues to be unable to slow them down.

They may be committed, but most of their success stories are based on foolishness and short sightedness on the part of the security apparatus. Instead of pondering over meager achievements and pathetic promotions, maybe the Nigerian government could work towards a proactive role. With over 160K military personnel and involved in conflicts since 67, one would think they have the upper hand.

[Stan]

The government is losing the confidence of the Christian community in Nigeria. When confidence is lost, people tend to take matters in their own hands.

Jaja,
Wouldn't that be a good thing when the people have had enough ? Not to compare Zaire and Nigeria (again), but once the Zairois had had enough, only then did things begin to dramatically change. Goodluck Jonathan is no uneducated dictator, but is he listening to his people ? BH has no need in crossing into the south if they garner public support.

[KingJaja]

Stan,

I should have written "the Christian community in Northern Nigeria".

Zaire wasn't a struggle between a virulent form of Islam and Christianity. Nigeria is uncharted territory.

[KingJaja]

This is what the former defense minister was worried about.


ABUJA — The head of Nigeria's Christians on Wednesday issued a "final" warning to the government that it must bring an end to attacks targeting the faithful after a new surge in deadly violence in recent days.
"I will now make a final call to the Nigerian government to use all resources available to it to clearly define and neutralise the problem as other nations have done," Ayo Oritsejafor, head of the Christian Association of Nigeria, told reporters.
"The Church leadership has hitherto put great restraint on the restive and aggrieved millions of Nigerians, but can no longer guarantee such cooperation if this trend of terror is not halted immediately."
Islamist group Boko Haram has been blamed for scores of attacks that have left hundreds dead in Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation roughly divided between a mainly Muslim north and predominately Christian south.
On Sunday, gunmen stormed two church services on a university campus in the northern city of Kano, throwing explosives and opening fire on worshippers as they sought to flee, leaving at least 19 dead.
Four others, including a pastor, were gunned down in the northeastern city of Maiduguri on the same day while leaving church.
No one has claimed responsibility for those attacks.
Boko Haram took responsibility for Christmas Day attacks, including a bombing at a church near the capital Abuja which killed at least 44 people. A bombing on Easter Sunday in Kaduna which was not claimed killed 41 people.
In the wake of the Christmas violence, Oritsejafor and others warned that Christians may be forced to defend themselves if attacks continued.
"At this point in the unfolding insecurity challenges, it has become irrelevant whether the root cause is political, religious, ethnic or ideological," Oritsejafor said Wednesday at the country's national church in Abuja.
"The fundamental issues are that the intimidation, killings, bombings and wanton destruction of lives and properties must stop immediately."
He added however that Nigerians should remain calm "as I am aware that the greater part of the overall design is to instill fear in the populace".
Boko Haram has regularly widened its targets in its insurgency which has killed more than 1,000 people since mid-2009.
On Tuesday, a video on YouTube purportedly from Boko Haram showed footage of last week's attack on a Nigerian newspaper and threatened news outlets, including the Hausa-language services of Voice of America and Radio France International.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j0CFndperJXURw1ueeQmEIBDkiGQ?docId=CNG.c5849 8c7da2bdc8c423f83563a347328.4f1

[davidbfpo]

An interesting primer by the Oxford Research Group, with Paul Rogers as author, on current events, which opens with this summary:
A series of major attacks in Nigeria in April are presumed to be the work of militants from the Boko Haram movement. There is little sign that extensive and rigorous police and army action against Boko Haram has had any effect in curbing the movement. Indeed, it may be stimulating further support, leading in turn to increased international concerns over the longer-term prospects for stability in Africa’s most populous country....this briefing will focus on the role of economic and political marginalisation in fostering violence.

The graphics are worth a look:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/middle_east/nigeria_generic_context_boko_haram_violence

[KingJaja]

But the differences in regional poverty rates are not that significant. Not significant enough to account for the formation of a terrorist group in the North East, but none in the North Central.

The author hits at an important point. "Washington consensus" style reforms have led to economic growth on the one hand and significant increases in the poverty rate on the other.

Will Africa be better served (from a national security point of view) by some form of socialism?

[SWJ Blog]

Confronting the Terrorism of Boko Haram in Nigeria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/confronting-the-terrorism-of-boko-haram-in-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/confronting-the-terrorism-of-boko-haram-in-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

Confronting the Terrorism of Boko Haram in Nigeria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/confronting-the-terrorism-of-boko-haram-in-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/confronting-the-terrorism-of-boko-haram-in-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

I knew this was going to happen:

T
he U.S. government is expected to formally apply a "foreign terrorist" label on Thursday to three alleged leading figures of the violent Nigerian militant group Boko Haram, officials said.

The action by the State and Treasury departments follows growing pressure on the Obama Administration to take stronger action against Boko Haram.

The group, which says it wants to establish an Islamic caliphate in northern Nigeria, has stepped up attacks on Christian places of worship this year.

Thursday's anticipated action, officials said, involves applying the "terrorist" designation to three men presumed to be central figures in the group.

The three individuals, an official said, are Abubakar Shekau, aged around 43, described as a Boko Haram leader who allegedly aligned himself with al Qaeda in a video message; Abubakar Adam Kambar, aged roughly 35; and Khalid al Barnawi, aged approximately 36. All three are native Nigerians.

The expected action will freeze any assets they have in the United States, and bar U.S. persons from any transactions with them.

It is among the first such action the U.S. government has taken against Boko Haram, but falls short of demands from some U.S. lawmakers and the Justice Department to designate the entire group as a "foreign terrorist organization."

The State Department has been under pressure to act against Boko Haram for months. In January, Lisa Monaco, the Justice Department's top national security official, sent a letter to the State Department arguing that the Nigerian group met the criteria for a "foreign terrorist" listing because it either engages in terrorism that threatens the United States or has a capability or intent to do so.

Boko Haram increasingly is seen as a potent threat to Nigeria, the continent's most populous state and major oil producer, and as part of growing arc of Islamist extremist groups stretching across northern Africa.

More recently, a group of Republican senators led by Scott Brown of Massachusetts introduced legislation requiring the State Department to determine whether Boko Haram should be designated as a terrorist group.

Republican Representative Patrick Meehan, who chairs a Homeland Security subcommittee in the House, also introduced an amendment that would force the administration to add Boko Haram to the terrorism list or explain why it was not doing so.

However, U.S. diplomats are weighing these demands against counter arguments, including those made by a group of academic experts on Africa who sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month urging her not to designate Boko Haram as a terrorist group.

The academics argued that the move could backfire by enhancing the group's reputation among potential recruits and other militant groups. A U.S.

designation might also empower more radical elements of Boko Haram, which is divided into factions, the professors said.

In her letter to the State Department, Monaco of the Justice Department reported that since 2009 Boko Haram has conducted violent attacks against Nigeria's "police, politicians, public institutions and civilian population."

Monaco said that according to press reports, Boko Haram claimed responsibility for 510 victims in 2011, and also took credit for a Jan. 20 attack on government buildings in Kano in which more than 160 were killed.

She said that although Boko Haram attacks until now have occurred only within Nigeria, Washington should not underestimate the threat the group poses to U.S. interests. http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/world-news/39926--us-to-label-nigerian-militants-terrorists-

[Jedburgh]

JSOU, 31 May 2012: Confronting the Terrorism of Boko Haram in Nigeria (https://jsou.socom.mil/Documents/12-5_Forest_053112_FINAL.pdf)

In this monograph counterterrorism expert James Forest assesses the threat Boko Haram poses to Nigeria and U.S. national security interests. As Dr. Forest notes, Boko Haram is largely a local phenomenon, though one with strategic implications, and must be understood and addressed within its local context and the long standing grievances that motivate terrorist activity. Dr. Forest deftly explores Nigeria’s ethnic fissures and the role of unequal distribution of power in fueling terrorism. Indeed, these conditions, combined with the ready availability of weapons, contribute to Nigeria’s other security challenges including militancy in the Niger Delta and organized
crime around the economic center of the country, Lagos....

[davidbfpo]

We discovered an Improvised Explosive Device factory where suspected terrorists were in the process of coupling the IEDs and we detonated some.

The factory was cordoned and searched and the following items were recovered: IEDs at various stages of development, cans of 33ccl, a sack containing 33ccl, empty cans and two IEDs packed in fire extinguisher tubes as well as timing devices.....the troops arrested one suspect, while others escaped, shot and wounded two residents in the area.

Link:http://ascology.com/news/local-news/26773-Nigerian-Army-arrests-suspected-terrorist-Discovers-bomb-factory.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[davidbfpo]

it is difficult to quantify the risk that Boko Haram presents outside Nigeria or to say for certain that it is on the verge of becoming an international – rather than a local – threat.....there is no evidence tying Boko Haram to al-Qaeda central or the broader jihadi community on an operational level....Boko Haram continues to resist becoming a wider movement. It fights for the realisation of its founding objectives – to end Western education and influence in Nigeria and to Islamise the country.

Link:http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/17/boko-haram-is-no-african-al-qaeda/

Almost like 'The Accident Guerilla' argument.

[KingJaja]

Is that myopia or what? Nobody in Nigeria cares whether Boko Haram is an "African Al Qaeda" or not.

Are we going to wait until full-blown, sectarian, Lebanon-style crisis blows up until we realize the danger Boko Haram poses?

[Ken White]

The answer to your question is probably.

Glad you reappeared, was getting worried that you'd wandered off... ;)

[Bill Moore]

Posted by KingJaja


Is that myopia or what? Nobody in Nigeria cares whether Boko Haram is an "African Al Qaeda" or not.

Are we going to wait until full-blown, sectarian, Lebanon-style crisis blows up until we realize the danger Boko Haram poses?

There are plenty of links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda related groups in Africa, and those in the know actually making decisions understand that. However, that doesn't mean Boko Haram will conduct attacks outside the borders of Nigeria. The Nigerians have proven to be very a savvy lot and they have sophisticated organized crime organizations that operate globally, not to mention their effective computer crimes that range from simple scams to sophisticated attacks. I have no idea if the Muslim Nigerians are part of these organizations, but the Nigerians as a whole are plenty sophisticated enough to wreck havoc.

AQ affiliation is just one concern, but is the periscope we tend to view the world through, which too often blinds us to other important issues that can have an impact on our interests. Nigeria is important whether or not AQ is present, it is the largest nation in Africa, it is the HQs of ECOWAS which does a fair job of retaining some degree of regional stability in W. Africa, and it produces a fair amount of oil. The bottom line is if the situation in Nigeria escalates significantly it will most likely further destabilize the region due to direct spill over from its borders and indirectly by degrading ECOWAS.

All that said I don't know what the U.S. should do that it isn't doing already?

[KingJaja]

A few things the US should do.

1. Declare Boko Haram (the entire organisation) as an FTO. Already prominent Islamic clerics have openly challenged BH and for the US to hide behind "political correctness" might be misconstrued as acquiescence.

2. Understand the internal dynamics of the struggle. The Southern Christian population will react, but BH is also reaction to the Northern Muslim establishment. The future unity of Nigeria is seriously at stake - this is what should worry ALL analysts.

[Chowing]

The number one danger that Boko Haram posses is that it is fully operational and has a devastatingly violent track record in Africa's most populous country. That in itself is of enough concern for the world community to take notice.
Fact of the matter is the AQIM and Boko Haram have each claimed "communication" and "ties" with the other. This may all be rhetoric, but there is enough smoke to cause pause and concern.

Sorry, that I have been away for awhile.

[Chowing]

There are plenty of links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda related groups in Africa, and those in the know actually making decisions understand that. However, that doesn't mean Boko Haram will conduct attacks outside the borders of Nigeria. They have more than enough territory and people to keep them busy just in Nigeria. After all, they do not claim any global goals that I know of.


Nigeria is important whether or not AQ is present, it is the largest nation in Africa, it is the HQs of ECOWAS which does a fair job of retaining some degree of regional stability in W. Africa, and it produces a fair amount of oil. The bottom line is if the situation in Nigeria escalates significantly it will most likely further destabilize the region due to direct spill over from its borders and indirectly by degrading ECOWAS.

All that said I don't know what the U.S. should do that it isn't doing already?
Yep. Yet it has little press attention in the USA or Europe.

[Dayuhan]

A few things the US should do.

1. Declare Boko Haram (the entire organisation) as an FTO. Already prominent Islamic clerics have openly challenged BH and for the US to hide behind "political correctness" might be misconstrued as acquiescence.

2. Understand the internal dynamics of the struggle. The Southern Christian population will react, but BH is also reaction to the Northern Muslim establishment. The future unity of Nigeria is seriously at stake - this is what should worry ALL analysts.

I'm not sure what the "FTO" designation would accomplish. In practice the main effect of the designation is that it prohibits US-based funding and allows the US to impose sanctions on other entities providing financing, but I haven't seen evidence that BH receives funding from the US or from sources the US could control.

The designation could produce the impression that the US is considering intervention (the reaction to AFRICOM suggests that US pronouncements are routinely exaggerated and misconstrued), and could accelerate internationalization of the conflict. It could provoke attacks on US or other foreign targets, which BH has so far avoided.

Understanding is always worth pursuing, but I suspect that the best course for the US to take is to quietly pursue understanding while avoiding any step that would suggest involvement.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.voanews.com/articleprintview/1382336.html

US Congressional Panel Examines Boko Haram Violence in Nigeria


Carson said Boko Haram capitalizes on the poverty and misery in the northern part of Nigeria, and called on the Nigerian government to address the root cause of the problem by providing better governance to all Nigerians. "Boko Haram thrives because of social and economic problems in the north that the government must find a way of addressing," he said.

Representative Smith rejected any assertion that terrorism is caused by social and economic problems, saying that the State Department underestimates the threat of militant Islamists who seek to impose Sharia, or Islamic law.

"Ideology that is highly, highly radicalized may exploit poverty at times, but poor people do not necessarily become terrorists and killers. That is an insult, frankly, to poor people," he said.

New Jersey is producing some credible politicians, good to see Congress taking this B.S. State rhetoric to court.

The study at the link below produced last DEC is a quick read that provides a fair overview in my opinion. Obviously the situation has escalated since DEC.

http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/REL-pub-CookBokoHaram-121611.pdf


4) We promise the West and Southern Nigeria, a horrible pastime.

29 MAR, 2010 Musa stated:


Islam doesn't recognize international boundries, we will carry out our operations anywhere in the world if we can have a chance. The United States is the number one target for its oppression and aggression Muslim nations, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan and so on

June 13 BH announced:
Very soon, we will wage jihad...We want to make it known that our jihadists have arrived in Nigeria from Somalia where they received real training on warfare from our brethren who made that country ungovernable.

The attack on the UN in AUG 26 in Abuja was meant to send a message that BH's goals were bigger than local issues. Points out the increased use of suicide bombers and video tapping the attacks, but further points out there are no known links with Middle Eastern extremists.

Overall still a lot of unknowns, but definitely deserves continued vigilence.

[KingJaja]

I've made this point severally - a wrong diagnosis leads to wrong prescriptions.

The prism through which Boko Haram is viewed in the West is the "War on Terror", that is very wrong, because it obscures us from extremely important issues.

Africa's most populous nation is tottering, reeling from the effects of a Niger Delta insurgency and now an Islamist insurgency - its future is uncertain.

A question to be asked is "what can the US/West possibly do?".

You start answering the question when you realise that these problems are political (at least that is how they are interpreted in Nigeria). Nigeria has never really been stable, we fought a Civil War in sixties and I think it is high time we recognise the inevitable: either we split or we renegotiate the basis for continued unity.

This is where Western diplomatic effort should be concentrated. It is counterproductive to work towards maintaining the status quo, when the status quo is extremely unstable.

[KingJaja]

This is the sort of nonsense peddled in Nigeria and the US refusal to designate Boko Haram as an FTO only feeds the narrative that the US is somehow behind Boko Haram in an attempt to destabilise Nigeria and seize our oil.


FOREIGN interests hell-bent on destroying the soul of not only Nigeria, but the whole of Africa, may actually be sponsoring the Boko Haram insurgents. These forces however use local collaborators who promote and employ endemic corruption as a weapon of mass destruction against the county’s moral values and social structure.

These were the submissions of an Arewa Chieftain and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) National Legal Adviser, Mallam Aliyu Umar.

Umar spoke yesterday while reacting to the inauguration of the 40-man committee by the Northern governors to dialogue with the leaders of Boko Haram.

“The primary security challenge facing the North and Nigeria and that has been facing the North and Nigeria is corruption as the Boko Haram factor has since been hijacked by foreign desperate neo-colonial forces and their hired domestic agents who are determined to ensure the breakup of Nigeria by the year 2015 as the Americans have shamelessly predicted.

“ Corruption is the most devastating weapon of mass destruction (which) they unleashed on Nigeria for the purpose of attaining unrealisable neo-colonial objective. This is what has transformed a purely Nigerian security with Northern contents into an international issue with anti-African neo-colonial contents, which, of course, can as usual, be dismissed as a mere conspiracy theory at great expense to our lives and the soul of … Africa,”Umar declared. According to him, “corruption does not only kill humans but it also destroys the souls of nations...”

The PRP chief expressed doubts that the committee raised by the northern governors will be able to accomplish much.

[davidbfpo]

Slightly edited
I've made this point severally - a wrong diagnosis leads to wrong prescriptions.

Africa's most populous nation is tottering, reeling from the effects of a Niger Delta insurgency and now an Islamist insurgency - its future is uncertain.

A question to be asked is "what can the US/West possibly do?"....

.....You start answering the question when you realise that these problems are political..... and I think it is high time we recognise the inevitable: either we split or we renegotiate the basis for continued unity.

This is where Western diplomatic effort should be concentrated. It is counterproductive to work towards maintaining the status quo, when the status quo is extremely unstable.

KingJaja,

For a host of reasons neither the USA or the West can make such a diplomatic effort to alter the status quo. They simply cannot take such a political stance, even if quiet diplomacy was possible and I would argue they are not the best parties to help. Too many vested interests are involved, including oil, the African stance on re-drawing borders would mean such diplomacy would cause anger even amongst friends.

There are a few smaller Western nations that could help quietly, including non-state parties. For example IIRC the Italian missionaries in Mozambique and the Norwegians in Palestine. A better example, much higher profile too were the various efforts made to end apartheid in South Africa.

First though I must ask do Nigerians themselves recognise that:
either we split or we renegotiate the basis for continued unity

If Nigerians do not then no amount of diplomacy will help.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Kingjaja

First you write this:


The prism through which Boko Haram is viewed in the West is the "War on Terror", that is very wrong, because it obscures us from extremely important issues.

Then you write this:


This is the sort of nonsense peddled in Nigeria and the US refusal to designate Boko Haram as an FTO only feeds the narrative that the US is somehow behind Boko Haram in an attempt to destabilise Nigeria and seize our oil.

While the two comments above are not necessarily illogical I think they do call for further explaination. Our State Department only designated a couple of individuals because they're generally in agreement with your first comment above, but then you complain that the whole group isn't designated which in theory would make them part of our war on terror.

Where do you stand exactly if you have a stance?

[KingJaja]

David,

Nigerians see the need to renegotiate the basis for continued unity:


The call for the convocation of a National Sovereign Conference (SNC) to discuss issues affecting the country and the terms of our togetherness increases almost by the passage of each day. However, there are those who are not favourably disposed to the idea because they view the idea of calling for a sovereign conference as a challenge to the sovereignty of the Nigerian state.

To get the perspective of Nigerians on this matter, the Nigerian Tribune conducted an opinion poll on the desirability or otherwise of an SNC. The poll result shows that many Nigerians support the idea of having a conference to discuss the future of the country.

Out of the 634 people who participated in the poll on our website, www.tribune.com.ng, 484 of the respondents, representing 76.3 per cent, voted in favour of having a sovereign conference. On the other hand, 130 respondents (20.5 per cent) voted against it, while 20 people (3.2 per cent) voted 'I don't know.'

The same question was posted on the Nigerian Tribune Facebook page to enable people comment on their responses. Excerpts of the comments are presented below.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/features/46199-yes-we-want-sovereign-national-conference-nigerians

If it isn't done peacefully now, it will be done violently in the near future. The window of opportunity is closing fast and the 2015 elections are an important watermark.

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

1. One can walk and chew gum at the same time and the US Government should be able to do so.

2. The Tamil Tigers are FTO, and they have nothing to do with the GWOT (and neither does Joseph Kony and the mad men he leads), BH fits the description of an FTO and should be labelled as such.

3. Designating two men as "terrorists" and giving the organisation they lead a free pass, is not only illogical and nonsensical but it reeks of hypocrisy. Many Nigerians are of the opinion that the US is shying away from designating Boko Haram as an FTO because they fear that the Northern Muslim elite will win elections in 2015 and control the oil resources - predictably, the US doesn't want to antagonise them.

4. Nigeria's Internet penetration rose sharply from 6% in 2010 to over 20% this year. We are dealing with an increasingly well informed population (in a nation of 160 million), and if the US didn't take public opinion seriously in the past, it should take it now.

5. Finally, it questions the credibility of the FTO classification business. You guys don't realise that Nigeria and US are partner on many initiatives in Africa. You don't also realise that Nigeria is "democratising" rapidly and that public opinion is more important today than it was decade ago.

The US must be seen to be transparent in its dealings with the Nigerian people. I have a quick suggestion here, either designate BH Haram as an FTO or discard the entire FTO classification business.

[Dayuhan]

This is the sort of nonsense peddled in Nigeria and the US refusal to designate Boko Haram as an FTO only feeds the narrative that the US is somehow behind Boko Haram in an attempt to destabilise Nigeria and seize our oil.

No matter what the US does, the conspiracy theorists will twist it into someting despicable and devious. If the US declares BH a terrorist organization, they'll be laying the groundwork to send in AFRICOM and seize the oil, if they don't, they'll be backing BH in an attempt to split Nigeria and gain control of the oil. The US can't design policy to undercut conspiracy theories, because any new policy will just generate a new range of theories, even more bizarre than the last.


2. The Tamil Tigers are FTO, and they have nothing to do with the GWOT (and neither does Joseph Kony and the mad men he leads), BH fits the description of an FTO and should be labelled as such.

Again, the FTO designation is often used as a way to try and cut off external funding toward an organization. I don't know if this is the case with the Tamil Tigers, but there is a substantial Tamil diaspora and there may have been a perceived need to build a legal basis to restrict external funding.

I don't know, but I suspect that the US is reluctant to designate BH as an FTO because they think it might be seen as internationalizing a domestic conflict and because it might provoke BH attacks on US targets. Those don't seem totally illegitimate reasons to me.


3. Designating two men as "terrorists" and giving the organisation they lead a free pass, is not only illogical and nonsensical but it reeks of hypocrisy. Many Nigerians are of the opinion that the US is shying away from designating Boko Haram as an FTO because they fear that the Northern Muslim elite will win elections in 2015 and control the oil resources - predictably, the US doesn't want to antagonise them.

I can see how some would believe this, but the truth is it really doesn't matter. The oil will be sold no matter what.


4. Nigeria's Internet penetration rose sharply from 6% in 2010 to over 20% this year. We are dealing with an increasingly well informed population (in a nation of 160 million), and if the US didn't take public opinion seriously in the past, it should take it now.

Internet access doesn't necessarily make people better informed. Sometimes it just puts them in touch with a wider and stranger range of conspiracy theories.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Dayuhan,


No matter what the US does, the conspiracy theorists will twist it into someting despicable and devious. If the US declares BH a terrorist organization, they'll be laying the groundwork to send in AFRICOM and seize the oil, if they don't, they'll be backing BH in an attempt to split Nigeria and gain control of the oil. The US can't design policy to undercut conspiracy theories, because any new policy will just generate a new range of theories, even more bizarre than the last.

So true

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/the-lay-scientist/2011/jul/15/1



Again, the FTO designation is often used as a way to try and cut off external funding toward an organization. I don't know if this is the case with the Tamil Tigers, but there is a substantial Tamil diaspora and there may have been a perceived need to build a legal basis to restrict external funding.

I was in and out of Sri Lanka while the designation process was unfolding. The LTTE representatives in Sri Lanka and the U.S. were aggressively lobbying to avoid the FTO designation (freedom fighters, not terrorists argument). They have a large diaspora in Canada, and a smaller one in the U.S. and we're aggressively conducting fund raising in both countries and of course Europe. The designation didn't defeat them, but it certainly reduced some streams of funding and further isolated them diplomatically.

Posted by Kingjaja


4. Nigeria's Internet penetration rose sharply from 6% in 2010 to over 20% this year. We are dealing with an increasingly well informed population (in a nation of 160 million), and if the US didn't take public opinion seriously in the past, it should take it now.

The U.S. always take public opinion seriously. Based on your comment it seems you assume your opinion equates to the larger public opinion. I suspect there are a wide range of opinions in Nigeria that are further diversified by the penetration of the internet.


5. Finally, it questions the credibility of the FTO classification business. You guys don't realise that Nigeria and US are partner on many initiatives in Africa. You don't also realise that Nigeria is "democratising" rapidly and that public opinion is more important today than it was decade ago.


The US must be seen to be transparent in its dealings with the Nigerian people. I have a quick suggestion here, either designate BH Haram as an FTO or discard the entire FTO classification business.

There are a lot of people with strong opinions like yours around the world that call our FTO designation process into question, and maybe they should, but it still survives and it serves "our" interests, which is what it is attended to do. I think many of us would agree with you that the process is often flawed, but it is a U.S. process to support U.S. interests.

As for not realizing that Nigeria and the U.S. are partners that may be true for some; however, I worked in Nigeria where we partnered them to address some regional security issues. I'm fully aware of their leadership role in Western Africa, which is why I think the BH and other threats to Nigeria are serious threats to our security and economic interests in the region. Not sure why you thought otherwise?

[KingJaja]

Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, president of Nigeria’s Christian Association of Nigeria called Tuesday on the United States to declare the Islamist group Boko Haram to be terrorists, but a US official said it was more important to address social inequalities.

In an unusually blunt appeal by a foreigner before the US Congress in Washington D.C, the head of the main Christian body in religiously divided
Nigeria said that a decision to blacklist three Boko Haram leaders as terrorists did not go far enough. Oritsejafor said that the US move on June 21 was “the equivalent of designating (Osama) bin Laden a terrorist but failing to designate Al-Qaeda a terrorist organization.”

Oritsejafor said that the reluctance to brand Boko Haram as terrorists had emboldened the group, which is estimated to have killed more than 1,000 people since mid-2009 in attacks on Christian and government sites. “By refusing to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization, the
United States is sending a very clear message, not just to the federal government of Nigeria, but to the world that the murder of innocent Christians and Muslims who reject Islamism — and I make a clear distinction here between Islam and Islamism — are acceptable losses,” Oritsejafor said.

“It is hypocritical for the United States and the international community to say that they believe in freedom and equality when their actions do not support those who are being persecuted,” he told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Oritsejafor said Boko Haram sought “an end to Western influence and a removal of the Christian presence in Nigeria,” telling the US lawmakers: “My people are dying every day.”

http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/christian-association-of-nigeria-president-pastor-oritsejafor-urges-u-s-lawmakers-to-tag-boko-haram-terrorists/

It is extremely risky to antagonise Nigeria's Christian population.

[KingJaja]

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) has expressed its displeasure over the manner which the United States of America treat the consistent attacks on Christians by insurgent elements who are bent on destabilizing the fragile relationship between Christians and Muslim in Nigeria.

The CAN position was made known in a letter by the president of the association, Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor to the visiting US Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

According to the Vanguard Newspapers, the letter dated the 7th of July and signed by the Secretary General of CAN, Rev. Musa Asake on behalf of Oritsejafor reads:

“Much to our dismay, the information contained in our memorandum to the presidential panel on Post-Election Violence was not included in the 2011 State Department International Religious Freedom Report. Our memo presented widespread incidents of violence targeting Christians in 12 northern states in April last year during the reporting period of the 2011 report.

“Unfortunately the destruction of over 700 churches and the systematic massacres of hundreds of Christians in 48 hours – the largest single attack on Christendom in contemporary world history anywhere on the planet-were not included in your report. Even more surprising, the report failed to accurately describe the horrific Christmas Day multi-city church attacks.

“These coordinated attacks on three states, comprising Niger, Plateau and Yobe, claimed over 60 lives and, for a second consecutive year, stunned the world. The report merely mentions the Christmas Day church bombing of St. Theresa’s Catholic church in Madalla, then fails to communicate the scope and significance of the Christmas Day attacks.

“The pernicious persecution, denigration and dehumanisation of Christians in northern Nigeria especially has been a fact of life for over a quarter century. It is therefore disconcerting that the US report addresses it in a speculative tone that undermines the harsh reality of the masses of orphans and widows left behind.”

Observers believe that the militant Islamic sect, Boko Haram, directly and also through its affiliates, is pursuing a sinister violent agenda to induce outrage among Christians and precipitate reprisal attacks which it hopes will feed on itself and snowball into a crisis more difficult to contain.

http://www.ynaija.com/oritsejafor-writes-clinton-unhappy-with-how-the-us-treats-terror-attacks-on-nigerian-christians/

You might not know it, but the Christian Association of Nigeria is quite powerful - and Nigerian Christians listen to the their pastors a lot more than they listen to politicians.

[Chowing]

You start answering the question when you realise that these problems are political (at least that is how they are interpreted in Nigeria). Nigeria has never really been stable, we fought a Civil War in sixties and I think it is high time we recognise the inevitable: either we split or we renegotiate the basis for continued unity.

.

No doubt, the political and ethnic difference are at the root of much of the division in Nigeria at present. However, we need not forget that the economic situation is the backdrop that is the breeding ground for the abscesses occurring in the political and ethnic divide.

I wonder, Kingjaja, what you think about this new investment initiative by the government. Does its safeguards against corruption and goals for trickling out into the general economy helpful ... helpful in the sense of medium to long term relief?

http://www.ventures-africa.com/2012/08/nigeria-announces-management-board-for-sovereign-wealth-fund/

[KingJaja]

No doubt, the political and ethnic difference are at the root of much of the division in Nigeria at present. However, we need not forget that the economic situation is the backdrop that is the breeding ground for the abscesses occurring in the political and ethnic divide.

I wonder, Kingjaja, what you think about this new investment initiative by the government. Does its safeguards against corruption and goals for trickling out into the general economy helpful ... helpful in the sense of medium to long term relief?

People tend to forget that Nigeria was a collection of warring ethnic groups before Pax Britannica. The Nigerian state has attempted to enforce Pax Britannica, but failed. The alternative could be to build a national identity, but we failed to do so for fifty years.

About the SWF, it won't have much impact in Nigeria. The money has to be spend in Nigeria to be effective, and when the money is spent is where the corruption occurs.

[KingJaja]

A Nigerian intellectual's take on the problem of Northern Nigeria.


Only last week, however, an impressive array of mostly Northern notables was convoked for the purpose of finding solutions to the unrelenting violence. These efforts are impressive displays of concern. But among this gamut of views and propositions, there is nothing on the table that suggests that we are prepared to admit the origins of the crisis or intelligently engage on permanent solutions.

While we grope for solutions, to my mind, the region faces three distinct possibilities: First, increased federal security effort could produce a temporary restoration of the pre-existing order of inequality secured by force. Second, the regime of insecurity could become institutionalised to the extent of the region becoming more like Somalia and thus become effectively de-coupled from the rest of the federation. The latter would be characterised by periodic fire fights between armed factions and the rise of warlords. With the characterisation of elements of Boko Haram as part of an international terrorist organisation by the US, we may soon play host to drone attacks on suspected terrorists targets in Nigerian territory. The third more positive possibility is an internal political revolution in which a new leadership emerges to seriously address the challenges of development and modernisation of the region, literally continuing from where the late Sar’dauna of Sokoto left off in 1966.

Most interpretations of the turn of events in the North are mostly as foolish as the blind quest for solutions in wrong directions. The anomy in the region is not exclusively a failure of security. The North is as insecure as the rest of Nigeria and people are not strapping explosive belts around their waists in other parts of the country. It is also not necessarily a political pressure to get a Northern president in 2015. How come Boko Haram has targeted key Northern leaders including, most recently, some traditional rulers and key politicians? It is true Al Queda and other fundamentalist anarchists seek fertile ground in places where poverty and desperation drive people of friendly faith to buy into their theology of mindless bestiality. But the Nigerian show of repeated violence is not strictly theirs; our strategic position vis-a-vis Western interests is mostly marginal but our weak security infrastructure makes this place attractive to casual anarchists, be they Boko Haram, kidnappers or glorified oil thieves erroneously dubbed Niger Delta militants.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/rescuing-the-north/123339/#.UD1D1BAv7cg.facebook

[Dayuhan]

With the characterisation of elements of Boko Haram as part of an international terrorist organisation by the US, we may soon play host to drone attacks on suspected terrorists targets in Nigerian territory.

This illustrates one of my reservations about a US declaration of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. Of course it isn't true: most groups on the FTO list have never experienced a drone strike or any other military action. It will be widely believed, though, and if militants believe they're in line for US attacks they've little reason not to attack US or other international targets.

[KingJaja]

This illustrates one of my reservations about a US declaration of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. Of course it isn't true: most groups on the FTO list have never experienced a drone strike or any other military action. It will be widely believed, though, and if militants believe they're in line for US attacks they've little reason not to attack US or other international targets.

That's the problem. On the one hand, the US insists on keeping this classification system which is of dubious utility, while on the other, being afraid of using it "for fear of attacks on US interests".

The Nigerian public is forming the opinion that the US is either complicit or acquiesces to the existence of Boko Haram, because in their view, if there ever was an "open and shut" case of a Foreign Terrorist Organisation - this is it.

So how can the US spin its self out of this corner? It can't. Eventually, sooner than later, under pressure from public opinion in Nigeria and political pressure from the Republicans - the Obama administration will have to apply the FTO designation to Boko Haram.

[KingJaja]

The Catholic Archbishop of Owerri Diocese, the Most Rev. Anthony Obinna, has said Christians may soon take up arms in self defence, if the killings by the Boko Haram sect continue unabated.
He said Christians will no longer watch religious extremists butcher their loved ones, but would rise up in defence of their lives and faith.
The cleric spoke at the Assumpta Cathedral in Owerri, the Imo State capital, during the media briefing of the Odenigbo Annual Lecture.
He said it is the responsibility of the government to protect its citizens and urged the Federal Government to sit up.
Archbishop Obinna said: “It is the responsibility of the Federal Government to protect all citizens, irrespective of religious, ethnic or political affiliations, in any part of the country, but in a situation where it fails to do so, we will take up arms and defend ourselves.”

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/news/59582-boko-haram%3A-%E2%80%98christians%E2%80%99ll-take-up-arms-soon%E2%80%99.html

[Dayuhan]

That's the problem. On the one hand, the US insists on keeping this classification system which is of dubious utility, while on the other, being afraid of using it "for fear of attacks on US interests".

It's of no utility at all to Nigerians. It's not meant to be. It's a tool of US policy, no less or more, and it will be used only if the US thinks its use will produce more gain than risk for the US.


The Nigerian public is forming the opinion that the US is either complicit or acquiesces to the existence of Boko Haram

Part of the Nigerian public, perhaps. The FTO designation would convince another part that the US is on the verge of intervening or is actually intervening in a domestic Nigerian problem. The question is which perception is a bigger problem for the US.


So how can the US spin its self out of this corner? It can't. Eventually, sooner than later, under pressure from public opinion in Nigeria and political pressure from the Republicans - the Obama administration will have to apply the FTO designation to Boko Haram.

The US government is not notably responsive to public opinion in Nigeria.

Has the Republican Party been applying pressure to have the FTO designation applied to BH?

We shall see what has to be or does not have to be done. Nothing, I would guess, until after the election, after which the Obama administration may or may not be around. How a Romney administration would handle the situation would handle the situation is a hard call to make, but I suspect that avoidance of perceived or actual foreign entanglement will be high on the agenda no matter who wins.

[Dayuhan]

Couple of comments on the issue:

https://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2012/05/24/why-not-to-designate-boko-haram-a-foreign-terrorist-organization/


Why NOT to Designate Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organization

A group of Nigeria watchers, including myself, has sent the secretary of state a letter urging that northeastern Nigeria’s “Boko Haram” not be given a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation.

Boko Haram is different from other FTOs, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Tamil Tigers, which have an organizational structure and a unified goal. Boko Haram is a highly diffuse movement with little, if any, central organization. In fact, the name “Boko Haram” is a label applied only by the Nigerian government, press, and security services, usually to describe the violence occurring (daily) in the north of the country. Most watchers agree that this violence is perpetrated by a myriad of actors, including former followers of the murdered preacher Mohammed Yusuf as well as criminal and other elements.

The uniting feature of Boko Haram is its focus on Nigeria. Its rhetoric does not include international jihadist themes. With the isolated exception of the UN headquarters bombing in Abuja, which is viewed in Nigeria as a collaborator with the Nigerian government, its targets have all been Nigerian, usually police, military, places of worship, and drinking establishments. Notably, most of Boko Haram’s victims have been Muslim...

There's a quote in this one that seemed interesting:

http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2012/06/13/should-boko-haram-be-designated-a-foreign-terrorist-organization/


Nigeria’s Ambassador to the U.S. Prof. Ade Adefuye, said his country was opposed to the declaration of Boko Haram as a FTO for a number of reasons:

• It will enhance the image and prestige of Boko Haram among other terrorist organizations which may be encourage them to strengthen their ties to Boko Haram.
• It will give the impression that Nigeria is not able to contain the sect when it has successfully contained Niger-Delta militants who were more focused, better organized and deadlier.
• An FTO operating in any country is subject to America’s search and destroy operations which includes the sending of drones as is currently happening in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen. Such activities bring untold suffering to citizens of such countries. “We do not want that in Nigeria,’’ he said.
• The U.S. does not have direct evidence of the dangers posed to it by the activities of Boko Haram.
• That a declaration of a Nigerian-based FTO militants was “strongly against our drive for American foreign investment.’’ He explained that Nigerian citizens arriving at American ports would be treated as inhabitants of an FTO based country and that each traveller would have to prove that he does not belong to Boko Haram.

Does that position accurately represent the position of the Nigerian Government?

[KingJaja]

Nigeria's Islamist terror sect Boko Haram has allegedly changed tactics from bombings to cybercrime with its latest assault - releasing online the personnel records of the country's top spies.

The personal data of more than 60 staff at the State Security Service (SSS), including home addresses and names of immediate family, were dumped online along with a threatening message from Boko Haram.

The SSS has waged a deadly campaign against the sect, which wants to impose Sharia or Islamic law over Africa's most populous country.

The leaks have alarmed analysts who have asked whether agents are too compromised from within to beat Boko Haram.

"This is a national embarrassment," one official told AP.

"I was shocked to see my details posted on the internet," said one former agent. "I've not heard anything from anybody. I was surprised that such information could be leaked."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/379074/20120830/boko-haram-leaks-data-nigeria-s-top.htm

[KingJaja]

The Joint Task Force (JTF) in Maiduguri has called on the public to disregard the leaflets and posters being distributed by Boko Haram terrorists urging people not to pass information to the JTF on the locations and activities of the sect.

In a statement issued today by its spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa, JTF stressed that the publications are simply part of the propaganda of the terrorists to keep the civil populace in captivity and perpetual fear with a view to unleashing more terror on innocent citizens.


In a separate statement, JTF drew attention to two recent incidents in the area in which, following search operations in which JTF recovered some arms and ammunition, members of Boko Haram arrived at the same market and coerced people to pay compensation for the seizure—without the incident being reported to JTF.

“JTF wishes to alert and warn individuals or group to desist from such unpatriotic acts as both the giver and receiver of such monies would be treated as terrorists and be seriously dealt with,” the statement said, reiterating its commitment to the maintenance of law, order and the protection of lives and properties of law abiding citizens.

It reminded the public that security is a collective responsibility rooted in information sharing and collaboration, and that members of the public can reach JTF on phone numbers 080-64174066, 080-85464012 and 080-54429346.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/jtf-maiduguri-urges-public-ignore-boko-haram-leaflets-and-posters

Seems like Boko Haram is borrowing from the Taliban playbook.

[KingJaja]

All serious analysts of Nigeria are advised to carefully consider these two stories. They are likely to have an impact on the future of Nigeria, and Nigeria will have to grapple with the tensions between North and South for the next twenty years.

Where will this end? Most probably a dissolution of the Nigerian state. Our prayer is that it is peaceful - but you were forewarned.


THE furore generated by some members of the Northern Governors’ Forum on the need to review the revenue allocation formula and onshore-offshore dichotomy may have moved from the political to the intellectual realm, and a hardening of positions.

Indeed, the new song is that the country must return to the negotiation table to define its corporate existence along the line of justice, equity and fairness in the allocation of resources to the federating units.

While the North clamours for more revenue to its region through a revisit of the revenue allocation formula and divestment of the offshore resources from the allocation to the littoral states of the Niger Delta, the latter zone wants total control of its oil resources.

It wants this done through an upward review of derivation from the current 13 per cent to 50 per cent.

Dr. Junaid Mohammed, physician and politician, described as an aberration the onshore/offshore dichotomy law, which awards more revenue to states in the oil-rich Niger Delta far ahead of states in the North.

Which is why he wants the matter revisited, insisting it had never been settled.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=97508:north-south-rift-deepens-over-revenue&catid=1:national&Itemid=559


NORTHERN leaders, Sunday, spurned Yoruba leaders' agitation for regional autonomy and a return to the parliamentary system of government, describing the clamour as a recipe for Nigeria's disintegration.

Yoruba elders under the banner of Yoruba National Assembly, YNA, had after a meeting in Ibadan last Thursday, canvassed a return to the parliamentary system of government and granting of regional autonomy to the South-West.

They also called for removal of the immunity clause for criminal offences; a new Nigeria consisting of a federal government and six regional governments (based on the current six geo-political zones) operating federal and regional constitutions, respectively; and adoption of Regional and State Police force structure among others.

But responding to the development, some prominent northern leaders, who spoke exclusively to Vanguard, kicked against YNA's call, saying that the agitation would plunge the nation into incalculable crises and hasten her break-up.

However, Secretary-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Nduka Eya, said the demands of the Yoruba leaders were in tandem with the position of Ndigbo, which had been sent to the National Assembly for inclusion in the on-going constitution amendment exercise.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201209030129.html

[KingJaja]

Now Boko Haram is attacking Telecom infrastructure in Northern Nigeria.

The economic impact on this part of Nigeria needs to be carefully considered.


Gunmen suspected to be Boko Haram members killed 16 people in an attack in Yobe State on Thursday morning.

The assailants, who used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and petrol-bombs during the attack, set ablaze the service-base masts of Airtel, Glo and Etisalat in Potiskum and Damaturu .

This is coming barely 24 hours after torching 15 masts of four Global System of Mobile Communication (GSM) firms in Borno state.

Among the 16 people killed was the Yobe state government protocol officer, Mallam Adamu.

Adamu was attacked and killed while returning from his duty post at the Government House, Damaturu.

Not less than 24 towers have been attacked, likely causing damage worth millions of dollars, says an association of mobile phone companies.

Army spokesperson Sagir Musa put the blame on radical Islamist group known as Boko Haram. Months ago the group threatened to target phone companies for collaborating with authorities.

According to experts, a tower costs about 450,000 US dollars and with antennas, generators and transmission equipment, the cost of a single tower can exceed one million US dollars

[Bill Moore]

Frankly I'm surprised that they haven't been systematically targeting economic infrastructure for sometime now. It seems many of the Islamist movements globally prefer to focus on symbolic targets, or targets that are intended to create a conflict between different ethnic groups, than targets that are directly associated with the enemy's economy and military capabilities. Maybe they have been in this case, I'm just not seeing it in the media.

[KingJaja]

Bill,

It depends on what their aims are. There isn't very much by the way of economic activity in Northern Nigeria and whatever economic activity occurred in the past has been severely stunted by their activities.

So they have nothing to prove by attacking other economic targets.

They are attacking telecom masts because they suspect the govt is using telecom infrastructure to track them.

[Dayuhan]

Boko Haram offers negotiations, but under terms I can't imagine any sovereign government accepting...


Boko Haram gives terms for talks with government

AFTER about three years of keeping the country on the brink of disintegration owing to the violence it regularly inflicted on it, Boko Haram may have decided to dialogue with the Federal Government.

But the group wants the dialogue to hold on its terms. It says the talks should take place in Saudi Arabia, it should be paid compensation and former Borno State Governor Ali Modu Sheriff who was arrested by the police in connection with the activities of the group, and its members being held should be released...

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=103517:boko-haram-gives-terms-for-talks-with-government&catid=1:national&Itemid=559#comments

[davidbfpo]

Events elsewhere may have distracted SWC, notably Mali, but Nigeria continues to make its own path. A somewhat confusing path too at times, well illustrated by this commentary 'Analyzing Foreign Influence and Jihadi Networks in Nigeria':http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/analyzing-foreign-influence-and-jihadi-networks-in-nigeria/

Which ends with:
After all, different groups, even splinters that maintain ties, still have different motivations and make different cost/benefit calculations about operations based on different factors. Which ultimately goes to show that, counter to what some might think, not all Muslims think and react the same way to complex and rapidly evolving events. Not even Nigerian jihadis.

Then there is the surprise:
A purported commander of Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram declared a unilateral ceasefire on Monday...

Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/us-nigeria-islamists-idUSBRE90R0V020130128 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16761670

[KingJaja]

The causality figures are actually closer to hundred.


At least 41 people died in a suicide car bomb that struck a bus station in a Christian neighborhood in Kano, northern Nigeria's busiest commercial center, in the most deadly attack in nine months that is blamed on Islamic extremists, an official said Tuesday.

The blast increased tensions in this divided West African nation.

At least 44 others were injured in the attack that hit the city of Kano Monday evening, a rescue official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press. Kano state police said Tuesday that two men rammed an explosive-laden blue VW Golf into a full passenger bus in a mainly Christian enclave in the predominantly Muslim commercial center.

By striking at about 5 p.m. Monday, the bombers seemed to have targeted passengers preparing for the 15-hour overnight road trip to the megacity of Lagos in Nigeria's south, loved ones bidding them farewell and vendors selling drinks and snacks. The blast triggered panic and pandemonium in a city that has seen similar violence in the past.

Kano police chief Musa Daura had said in a statement that at least 22 people had died, but the rescue official said there were 41 deaths at least. He said there were 21 bodies were at Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital and 20 more at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, said rescue officials. They are also treating 41 and 3 injured respectively. Police has downplayed figures in the past to avoid reprisals.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/16-killed-northern-nigeria-explosion-18760022#.UUxC-BfFXko

This sort of thing has been going on for too long, if things continue at this rate, it's no longer a question of if, but when Nigeria implodes.

[davidbfpo]

Some good news:
Seven members of a French family kidnapped by gunmen in northern Cameroon in February have been freed.

Freed and no explanation why, with French reassurances that:
France has not changed its position, which is not to pay ransoms....

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22213125

[davidbfpo]

A little more on the release of the French family hostages; who took them? Local highway robebrs, who sold them onto Boko Haram and:
From reliable sources, there have been a prisoner exchange and Cameroon has given to Boko Haram suspected members of the Islamist sect detained in the country.

Link:http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130420-liberation-famille-moulin-fournier-y-il-eu-contreparties

[KingJaja]

Major escalation of Boko Haram related violence near Lake Chad.


BAGA, Nigeria (AP) -- Fighting between Nigeria's military and Islamic extremists killed at least 185 people in a fishing community in the nation's far northeast, officials said Sunday, an attack that saw insurgents fire rocket-propelled grenades and soldiers spray machine-gun fire into neighborhoods filled with civilians.

The fighting in Baga began Friday and lasted for hours, sending people fleeing into the arid scrublands surrounding the community on Lake Chad. By Sunday, when government officials finally felt safe enough to see the destruction, homes, businesses and vehicles were burned throughout the area.

The assault marks a significant escalation in the long-running insurgency Nigeria faces in its predominantly Muslim north, with extremists mounting a coordinated assault on soldiers using military-grade weaponry.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_NIGERIA_VIOLENCE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[KingJaja]

ABUJA, Nigeria — Nearly four years into Nigeria’s bloody struggle with Islamists in its impoverished north, a new threat has emerged with deadly implications, this time for Westerners as well as Nigerians: local militants who openly claim to be inspired and trained by Al Qaeda and its affiliate in the region.

Having split off from Boko Haram — the dominant Nigerian extremist group responsible for weekly shootings and bombings — this new group, Ansaru, says it eschews the killing of fellow Nigerians.

“Too reckless,” said a young member of Ansaru. His group evidently prefers a more calculated approach: kidnapping and killing foreigners.

Just days before, his group had methodically killed seven foreign construction workers deep in Nigeria’s semidesert north. The seven had been helping to build a road; their bodies were shown in a grainy video, lying on the ground.

The West, which has often regarded the Islamist uprising here as a Nigerian domestic issue, has been explicitly put on notice by Ansaru, adding an international dynamic to a conflict that has already cost more than 3,000 lives.

Ansaru is believed to be responsible for the December kidnapping of a French engineer, who is still missing, and for the abduction of an Italian and a Briton, both construction workers, who were later killed by their captors as a rescue attempt began last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/world/africa/in-nigeria-ansaru-militant-group-poses-new-threat.html?pagewanted=all

What the article doesn't tell you is Boko Haram is mainly a Kanuri affair, whilst Ansaru is a Hausa/Fulani thing.

Almost everything in Africa is ethnic - so we can be rest assured that this will not spread to the Christian South of Nigeria.

[davidbfpo]

A different focus for once, an article by an IISS analyst, Virginia Comolli, on her visit to Kano and starts with:
What strikes me the most on my arrival in the city of Kano, in northern Nigeria, is the number of boys roaming the streets. Here in the heartland of the Islamist insurgency that has afflicted Nigeria for the past few years, children as young as four or five spend their days weaving among the chaotic traffic and begging for food. Sent to religious boarding schools by families too poor to properly support them, they are known as almajiris.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2013-1e35/april-2013-982b/lost-boys-of-kano-3fe2

[KingJaja]

David,

This is a trap 99% of Western analysts fall into, "economic inequality" did not cause Boko Haram, religious fundamentalism did.

Anywhere from 30 - 40% of the population of Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) is Christian, there has been no equivalent group from that population.

Poverty, alienation & economic disparity are a constant in human history - they probably led to the French Revolution. Having said that, very few scholars focus on poverty and alienation when discussing the French Revolution.

What matters is the narrative the poor accept - that is what drove the French Revolution, what is driving Boko Haram and what prevents the Christian community from adopting a similar stance.

[davidbfpo]

Professor Paul Rogers has an article on Nigeria and this sums it up:
Nigeria's approach to controlling Boko Haram is flawed at just about every level, from the individual to the transnational. The policy fuels the movement's image as defenders of a besieged Islam who have no choice but to resist and to inspire a process of puritan social and spiritual renewal.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/nigeria-boko-haram-risk

Alas there is no mention of alternative options to the apparent violence-only approach of the army; as reported in:http://wap.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/world/africa/body-count-soars-as-nigerian-military-hunts-islamists.html

That nice diplomatic phrase 'security sector reform' (SSR) is rather difficult in the midst of an insurgency, as the UK painfully learnt in Northern Ireland and only really achieved after 'The Troubles' abated.

[KingJaja]

David,


That nice diplomatic phrase 'security sector reform' (SSR) is rather difficult in the midst of an insurgency, as the UK painfully learnt in Northern Ireland and only really achieved after 'The Troubles' abated.

Excellently put, the only thing standing between the Nigerian State & implosion is the Nigerian Army. So politicians have to deal with the Military modus operandi.

This is very sad, but true.

Secondly, the Army has ruled the nation in the past & it is still a strong force, total civilian control might exist in theory, but not in practice - i.e. civilians do not have all the latitude to tell soldiers what to do.

[davidbfpo]

When Islamic fighters drove into a town in north-eastern Nigeria last week, they used anti-aircraft guns, mounted on the backs of trucks, to destroy nearly every landmark of the nation's federal government......Where the weaponry has come from also remains unclear. A propaganda video released in March by Boko Haram, featuring its leader, Abubakar Shekau, showed fighters gathered around weapons they said they had stolen from an attack on an army barracks. Those weapons included what appeared to be heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and possibly anti-aircraft weapons, as well as ammunition and brand-new bulletproof vests.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/extremism-in-nigeria-africas-great-unreported-bloodletting-8612408.html

[Bill Moore]

Not to divert the topic away from Nigeria which is critically important at Africa's largest nation, but the article points the collapse of Libya leading to the surge of higher end weapons being made available to the Islamist Network. That quickly changed the equation (parity between opponents) in Mali, Nigeria and I suspect elsewhere.

Fast forward to a time when Bashir potentially falls from power. I still don't think the writing is on the wall, as long as he continues to receive support from Russia and Iran, but if the does fall and in the chaos that follows Islamists obtain a range of higher end weapons (including chemical weapons) that will present a credible threat to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Israel and beyond.

Back to Africa and stability. An idea I'm wrestling with for future debate is that what defines stability for the U.S. and others tends to change the wider you open the aperture. Stability within nations is influenced by local government and other factors, but sometimes those governments that are inept at governing their own people provide a degree of regional stability by holding things in check. When the U.S. talks about maintaining stability what does that actually mean? What should it mean? I'll transfer this to a new thread, but they article posted above is a good sag way to this discussion.

[davidbfpo]

A succinct IISS Strategic Comment on Nigeria:http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/strategic%20comments/sections/2013-a8b5/nigeria--39-s-emergency--countering-boko-haram-cf8c

[SWJ Blog]

Ensuring U.S. Prosperity and Security: The Case for Nigeria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/ensuring-us-prosperity-and-security-the-case-for-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/ensuring-us-prosperity-and-security-the-case-for-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

The Causes of Instability in Nigeria and Implications for the United States (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-causes-of-instability-in-nigeria-and-implications-for-the-united-states)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-causes-of-instability-in-nigeria-and-implications-for-the-united-states) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

The Causes of Instability in Nigeria and Implications for the United States (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-causes-of-instability-in-nigeria-and-implications-for-the-united-states)

[KingJaja]

Not to divert the topic away from Nigeria which is critically important at Africa's largest nation, but the article points the collapse of Libya leading to the surge of higher end weapons being made available to the Islamist Network. That quickly changed the equation (parity between opponents) in Mali, Nigeria and I suspect elsewhere.

Fast forward to a time when Bashir potentially falls from power. I still don't think the writing is on the wall, as long as he continues to receive support from Russia and Iran, but if the does fall and in the chaos that follows Islamists obtain a range of higher end weapons (including chemical weapons) that will present a credible threat to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Israel and beyond.

Back to Africa and stability. An idea I'm wrestling with for future debate is that what defines stability for the U.S. and others tends to change the wider you open the aperture. Stability within nations is influenced by local government and other factors, but sometimes those governments that are inept at governing their own people provide a degree of regional stability by holding things in check. When the U.S. talks about maintaining stability what does that actually mean? What should it mean? I'll transfer this to a new thread, but they article posted above is a good sag way to this discussion.

US is in uncharted territory here. I think a lot of what the US is dealing with is the failure of the order imposed by British & French colonial empires in Africa & the Middle East.

Carving out a random geographical area and calling it "a nation" without bothering to understand ethnic, cultural or linguistic differences was always going to fail. It was done on an industrial scale in Africa & a lot of it was done in the Middle East.

These fundamental issues should have been dealt with in the decades immediately after decolonization, but the distraction of the Cold War meant that they were never dealt with.

For example in Nigeria, we talk about Boko Haram. There's the Al Qaeda component, but there's the equally important (some would argue more important) ancient rivalry between Kanem Bornu and the Sokoto Caliphate. While the Sokoto Caliphate was pretty much left intact within Nigeria (and few parts of Niger) - Kanem Bornu was split between Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroun!!

So Sokoto later dominates Nigerian politics, while Kanem Bornu will play second fiddle in perpertuity. These ethnic tensions are mirrored across virtually all Sub-Saharan states - colonization created winners and losers.

So such states are inherently unstable.

So what does America mean when it aims for stability? Does that mean imposing the current unstable equilibrium? But that cannot last forever, will the US continue to sustain artificial African states for 20, 30 or 40 years.

A lot of the so-called instability is expected. British and French colonies (e.g. Syria) were created for divide and rule, not to endure as stable Jeffersonian democracies.

The British and French created a mess - and after much bloodshed, that mess will be cleaned up.

And there is nothing the United States of America can do about that.

[SWJ Blog]

How to Deal with Nigeria's Boko Haram: A Primer (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/how-to-deal-with-nigerias-boko-haram-a-primer)

[Dayuhan]

The British and French created a mess - and after much bloodshed, that mess will be cleaned up.

And there is nothing the United States of America can do about that.

I have to agree with that, though I'd add that the mess will not be "cleaned up" by any outside party. A lasting solution will have to evolve from within, not be imposed from without, and as you say, that evolution will not be pretty. If Africa is unlucky it may be as ugly as the evolution of sustainable states in Europe.

I'd also point out that order and stability are very different things, and that when the US says it seeks stability, it is often actually seeking order. An artificially imposed order that does not allow space for the inherently disorderly resolution of implicit tension is a highly unstable state.

I'd be curious to hear your opinion on this:

http://africacenter.org/2013/08/mitigating-radicalism-in-northern-nigeria/

[KingJaja]

I have to agree with that, though I'd add that the mess will not be "cleaned up" by any outside party. A lasting solution will have to evolve from within, not be imposed from without, and as you say, that evolution will not be pretty. If Africa is unlucky it may be as ugly as the evolution of sustainable states in Europe.

I'd also point out that order and stability are very different things, and that when the US says it seeks stability, it is often actually seeking order. An artificially imposed order that does not allow space for the inherently disorderly resolution of implicit tension is a highly unstable state.

I'd be curious to hear your opinion on this:

http://africacenter.org/2013/08/miti...thern-nigeria/

I haven't had time to read the link you sent - but yes, the solution will have to evolve from within.

Consider Syria & the wider Middle East - the World is getting closer to an independent Kurdistan and Sykes-Picot will unravel, no matter how many carrier battle groups the US stations in the Persian Gulf.

I would also argue that instability is less of a problem in East Asia, because colonial boundaries were more representative of ethno/religious realities.

[KingJaja]

What are they waiting on? This has been going on for years, yet the response in most cases has been fairly tame. People fighting for survival won't and probably shouldn't play by our rules. We wouldn't follow our rules if we were seriously threatened.

Please read this:


Volunteer Vigilance Youths Group (VVYG) otherwise known as 'Civilian JTF' on Thursday arrested and set ablaze an alleged notorious Boko Haram sect member at Gwange ward in Maiduguri, Borno State capital, residents and witnesses said.

This is the second time the youths would burn a suspected member of the Boko Haram in less than a week.

Some of the vigilante members who took part in the burning said the suspect had once killed and burned a soldier in the area sometime last year.

The claim could not be verified from the spokesman of the Joint Task Force, JTF, Lt Col Sagir Musa but a security source confirmed that the youths had burnt the suspect.

"This (the action of the vigilantes) is a serious source of concern to us... jungle justice is a crime in itself and we want parents to caution their wards against it," the source said.

Weekly Trust gathered that the suspected Boko Haram member had led insurgents in the killing of many people and perpetrated "many atrocities" at Gwange Sabon Layi.

"The actions of the suspect who fled to the forest last December prompted soldiers to sack residents from the area," a resident of Gwange said.

One of the vigilantes also corroborated. "Only Allah knows how eager we were to catch that guy (burnt suspect) alive. As a result of his bad deeds, soldiers sacked and closed our area completely. But we were then told that the guy had escaped into the forest. Some even believed that he has been killed since. We were on operations when we saw him.

"On seeing him, all the youths shouted 'here he is'. Then everyone of us was jubilating, seeing our 'wanted guy'.

"So, we instantly reminded him of what he did last year, but to our surprise, he started begging us to pardon him. As he was crying, we tied him up, poured fuel on his body and set him on fire. No pity for Boko Haram sect members at all now. Thousands have been displaced and hundreds were killed because of his bad deeds," the vigilante said.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201307270089.html

[Bill Moore]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/29/college-provost-says-suspected-islamic-extremists-kill-about-50-students-in/


Islamist terrorists kill dozens of students in attack on Nigerian college

Islamic terrorists dressed in Nigerian military uniforms assaulted a college inside the country Sunday, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in their dorms and shot those trying to flee, witnesses say.

"They started gathering students into groups outside, then they opened fire and killed one group and then moved onto the next group and killed them. It was so terrible," on surviving student, who would only give his first name of Idris, told Reuters.

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

[JMA]

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

Bill, they apparently have 9 perps in custody. Given that Kenya does not have the same sensitivities over the use of ... shall we say ... coercion, they will soon all be singing like little birdies. All will be revealed.

That said, yes, you are correct it then depends on what is done with the intel.

[jmm99]

insulting all the real animals I love. :D

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

[Bill Moore]

insulting all the real animals I love. :D

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

I used to think our strategists would wake up to simple truths and realize how deeply flawed our COIN doctrine really is. This is relevant because we have largely chosen to use a COIN approach to counter terrorism globalism globally by projecting the idea that if you just have good governance all of this will go away. I'm convinced now that our ill conceived views of how the world works hasn't and won't change just because those views are disproven when they bump up against reality. Nations that have a clearer view of reality, a reality not shaded by our idealism, will have to take the lead in the fight against terrorists. They shouldn't allow us to hold them back.

The only way to win over these ass clowns is to convert to their religion and embrace "their" version of sharia law. Of course that won't be enough, it never is. Where they achieve power status what follows will be the oppression of women, and then certain men won't be Muslim enough for the radicals so they'll have to be killed, and so on and so on.

[KingJaja]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/29/college-provost-says-suspected-islamic-extremists-kill-about-50-students-in/



KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

The Nigerian Army is as brutal as they come, but we are dealing with something that might be beyond the capacity of the Nigerian Army (120,000 soldiers also managing a Niger Delta insurgency & a Middle Belt crisis).

The Sahel had great inland cities & it's economy was based on transactions between the interior & the Maghreb. Unfortunately, European trade with the coasts broke those links & even though the physical routes for trade are intact, very little trade occurs in that region.

That region is not economically productive & will never be, but it is still linked to the Maghreb & the interior. So we are dealing with a transnational problem that might only get worse with time.

It is impossible to police Nigeria's Northern borders - so these animals will have free movement through even weaker states like Niger, Chad & Cameroun - which they could destabilize large parts of in future.

I don't know how this thing will end, but it won't end soon. It will end only after all parties are exhausted.

[carl]

Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.

If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

[KingJaja]

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

[carl]

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough. Moderator adds: Done 5th October, posts copied to Nigeria thread. Ends)

[JMA]

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)

Carl, this smacks of reckless desperation.

The key to any grand strategy is to make sure that whatever you do/use/implement during a 'war' it does not lead to greater polarization of groups/factions after the war.

As with anywhere - and most certainly in Africa - vigilantly 'justice' will often lead to scores being settled etc. Soon will get get out of control.

A sure indication the police and military have lost control.

[carl]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

[davidbfpo]

I have copied eleven posts from the thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' to here, as they refer to events in Nigeria and the consequences.

[KingJaja]

Interesting article on Boko Haram by a local journalist:


Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan, a third in a succession of non-soldier elected Presidents since 1965, seems overly optimistic about the fire power of his troops. The military had offered a full combatant response to the lingering terror activities by the Boko Haram, a position approved by the President, now bugged down by outright war against the terrorist band.

Following the scenario he was offered by the military, the President once assured Nigerians that the insurgents would be routed within six months now his troops are fighting hard to contain the radical terror gang. Last May, in adherence to the position of the military, he declared a state of emergency in affected states.

Five months into the emergency rule in three north east states, both sides have been served a heavy dosage of casualty. The sect, fighting with renewed energy and ruthlessness maintains that its doctrine abhors any form of representative government and that it would continue to fight whether or not a Christian was in power in Nigeria. To the credit of the military, most members of the elite Shura leadership council of the terror sect have been taken out.

This is clearly a setback for the sect that, before May, was at the verge of declaring over 20 local government areas of Borno and Yobe states, its official territory, effectively excising the strip from Nigeria. Geographically, the territory is weather stricken, desert land. But strategically it had the potential of robbing Nigeria access to its border with Niger, Cameroun and Chad republics.

A trusted source within the sect said Boko Haram has received assurances from al-Qaeda and from other international Jihadi brothers of material and human support. The sect planned to boost its militants by compelling youths and men that are fit, to take up arms or risk being killed.

Nigerians are beginning to credit the Federal government with the good judgment in sending in the soldiers given that the sect’s armaments have been wholesomely destroyed and narrowing its terror activities to the fringes of two states.

A trusted inside assessment of the impact of the military action reveals that at a point, the military had taken out a substantial number of the leadership of the sect thereby isolating its leader, Shekau. Had the military pushed further at the point, Shekau himself might have been taken out. But he got a respite as the military looked over its shoulder, ensuring that Shekau embarked in a rebuilding process.

It is believed that Shekau has appointed a new Shura that is said to be made up of younger, more radicalized hot heads unlike its predecessors that were Shekau’s peers and often brought his judgments to question. Creation of military backed vigilantes, a group of youths eager to reclaim their communities, counts among the ‘success stories.’

http://saharareporters.com/article/boko-haram%E2%80%99s-renewed-creed-ahmad-salkida#.UlmV_KVqp4M.twitter

[davidbfpo]

An article in National Geographic on Northern Nigeria Conflict, which is a sign of a far broader readership than most reporting in the USA. Nothing startling, some interesting detail and I await KingJaja's review.

Link:http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/11/northern-nigeria/verini-text

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

I've read through it, it doesn't say anything that we haven't discussed before, but it brings to light the emerging conflict between Muslims & Christians on the interface of the Sahel - a region extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean.

Christians in both Nigeria & Kenya are increasingly seeing Islam as an intolerant cult - a threat to their existence. I'm afraid, the events in Westgate shopping mall & Boko Haram feed a narrative, a narrative that most of the World might choose to ignore before it is too late.

Large scale conflicts between Christians & Muslims in Africa are sadly, inevitable. Much as I don't want them to happen, they will happen.

[SWJ Blog]

The War for Nigeria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-war-for-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-war-for-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

I've mentioned this earlier, African nations like Nigeria and Kenya are very different from other "traditional" fronts on the war on terror like Somalia, Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria etc.

All the nations I mentioned are Islamic-dominated nations, Nigeria & Kenya are not. Kenya can be said to be "Christian-dominated" (Muslims are a fraction of the population), but Nigeria has about equal numbers of Muslims & Christians - and that's where the problems start.

Most scholars haven't investigated the impact of Boko Haram's violence on the perception of Islam by Nigeria's significant Christian community.

I live in Nigeria, the impact is quite significant and it will be reflected in the results of the next elections.

The next elections in Nigeria are likely to be a cliff hanger. I'm almost certain that it would be virtually impossible to conduct elections in Nigeria's North East (the epicenter of Boko Haram), so there would be shouts of disenfranchisement.

There are likely to be two major candidates. One will be a Christian (the incumbent) while the other is most definitely going to be a Muslim from Nigeria's North. Four years of Boko Haram violence against Churches in the North is likely to result in heavy support for the Christian candidate from the Christian community, while the converse is likely to apply for Muslims.

Right now Boko Haram is brutal but in a way, manageable. The next set of elections are likely to split the religious & sectional fault-lines wide open.

This could be worse than Yugoslavia if not handled well.

No nation on earth has the resources or capability to prevent Nigeria from imploding if the Nigerian ruling elite doesn't navigate 2015 with care. The language from the political elite isn't very encouraging.

[KingJaja]

NY Times on Boko Haram:


But about 40 miles away in Maiduguri, the sprawling state capital from where the militant group emerged, Boko Haram has been largely defeated for now, according to officials, activists and residents — a remarkable turnaround that has brought thousands of people back to the streets. The city of two million, until recently emptied of thousands of terrified inhabitants, is bustling again after four years of fear.

For several months, there have been no shootings or bombings in Maiduguri, and the sense of relief — with women lingering at market stalls on the sandy streets and men chatting under the shade of feathery green neem trees in the 95-degree heat — is palpable.

Boko Haram has been pushed out of Maiduguri largely because of the efforts of a network of youthful informer-vigilantes fed up with the routine violence and ideology of the insurgents they grew up with.

“I’m looking at these people: they collect your money, they kill you — Muslims, Christians,” said the network’s founder, Baba Lawal Ja’faar, a car and sheep salesman by trade. “The Boko Haram are saying, ‘Don’t go to the school; don’t go to the hospital.’ It’s all rubbish.”

[davidbfpo]

This thread is now rather large and will be closed. A successor thread exists and will be renamed 'Nigeria: watching and debating its future'. Sadly I don't think Nigeria is going away.

Thanks to Kingjaja for his contributions.:)