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Jedburgh
08-05-2006, 11:43 AM
From ICG, 3 Aug 06: The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria's Delta Unrest (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/115_the_swamps_of_insurgency_nigeria_s_delta_unres t.pdf)

A potent cocktail of poverty, crime and corruption is fuelling a militant threat to Nigeria’s reliability as a major oil producer. Since January 2006, fighters from a new group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), have fought with government forces, sabotaged oil installations, taken foreign oil workers hostage and carried out two lethal car bombings. MEND demands the government withdraw troops, release imprisoned ethnic leaders and grant oil revenue concessions to Delta groups. The Nigerian government needs to forge far-reaching reforms to administration and its approach to revenue sharing, the oil companies to involve credible, community-based organisations in their development efforts and Western governments to pay immediate attention to improving their own development aid...

Jedburgh
09-28-2006, 10:22 PM
Follow-up report from ICG, 28 Sep 06: Fuelling the Niger Delta Crisis (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/118_fuelling_the_niger_delta_crisis.pdf)

...Militant groups in the Niger Delta are proliferating and mutating rapidly. Few have expressed goals beyond extorting lucrative payments from industry and government. Others are working on behalf of local politicians with electoral ambitions. Several groups appear at least loosely linked with MEND, the most cohesive and politically astute militant group to emerge so far. MEND’s spokesman has both conceded giving tacit approval to groups that carry out sabotage and kidnappings for ransom and distanced his organisations from such activities. He insists his organisation is no longer interested in carrying out the kind of small-scale attacks that have been a staple of the Niger Delta for years, and is instead preparing to deliver a single, crushing blow to the region’s oil industry unless the government agrees to sweeping economic and political reforms long sought by activists.

Regardless of whether MEND can or will deliver on such threats, few would dispute that the security situation is deteriorating, with consequences for the oil industry. Militants recognise that they do not have to capture ground or even win major battles to accomplish their goals. They also realise that Nigeria’s military and police are insufficiently trained, unmotivated and illequipped to handle a full-fledged insurgency in the Delta’s unforgiving terrain of swamps and creeks. Shutting down Nigeria’s oil production would hurt the federal government more than any other party to the crisis and create what MEND hopes would be an environment for insurgency to flourish. President Obasanjo and his administration must urgently address the region’s grievances before the security situation further degenerates...

Jedburgh
10-27-2006, 07:42 PM
ICG appears to be the only source that continues to monitor this situation in-depth:

Nigeria's Faltering Federal Experiment (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/119_nigerias_faltering_federal_experiment.pdf), dated 25 Oct 06


...Escalating violence, especially in the oil rich Niger Delta, threatens the integrity of the Nigerian state and raises the spectre of attempted coups by those who feel their privileges are being endangered. In the 46 years since Nigeria gained independence from Britain, successive governments have attempted, with varying degrees of sincerity and commitment, to fashion federal institutions that can accommodate the country’s ethnic, cultural, religious and linguistic diversity and nurture a sense of national unity. However, the leaders of these governments, at all levels, have failed to live up to their obligations to offer good governance based on equitable political
arrangements, transparent administrative practices and accountable public conduct. Communities throughout the country increasingly feel marginalised by and alienated from the Nigerian state...

...The government must address these core causes of the failing federal experiment or risk that Delta militias decapitate the oil industry, intercommunal violence spirals out of control, and ethnic militias, sectarian vigilantes and separatist groups continue to plague communities. Since such a destabilised Nigeria would be highly detrimental to the entire fragile West
African region, still struggling to recover from the wars in Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone and Guinea Bissau, the international community has many reasons to encourage far-reaching reforms.

Menning
01-19-2007, 07:11 PM
In the latest Vanity Fair, Sebastian Junger wrote a very good article about Nigerian troubles in the Niger Delta with insurgent groups. It's worth reading.

Here's the link:

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/02/junger200702

SWJED
01-19-2007, 07:24 PM
Good link - potential problem when considering this in tandem with M.E. conflicts and our "Hugo problem" down south - here is the intro teaser to the article:


Blood Oil

Could a bunch of Nigerian militants in speedboats bring about a U.S. recession? Blowing up facilities and taking hostages, they are wreaking havoc on the oil production of America's fifth-largest supplier. Deep in the Niger-delta swamps, the author meets the nightmarish result of four decades of corruption...

marct
01-19-2007, 08:12 PM
As an addendum,


U.S. urges 'fivefold expansion' in Alberta oilsands production (http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/01/17/oil-sands.html)
Last Updated: Thursday, January 18, 2007 | 6:31 AM ET
CBC News

The U.S. wants Canada to dramatically expand its oil exports from the Alberta oilsands, a move that could have major implications on the environment.
....

Now I'll go read the article.

Marc

marct
01-19-2007, 08:26 PM
Okay, this pretty much ties in with the other material I have read about the Niger delta. It's time to stop acting like conquistadors and invest something in the local economy. After all, do we really want to have to fight a war in Nigeria when, with a minuscule investment in local PR, e.g. schools, clean water, etc., we can stop this insurgency before it starts?

Honestly, as a Canadian, I don't really have to worry about this. Nigeria is the #5 source of foreign oil to the US. Want to guess what the #1 source is? Canada. If Nigeria goes into a civil war, I won't freeze. Still and all, doesn't it make sense to force the oil companies to invest in local development? It would be a situation of, to quote the great American philosopher Tom Lehrer, "doing well, by doing good."

Marc

sgmgrumpy
01-19-2007, 08:53 PM
A decade later, the potential consequences of this conflict have escalated in both human and economic terms across a swathe of territory 30 times the size of Ogoniland. Nigerian and international military experts have recognised that the crisis requires a negotiated political resolution. Any attempt at a military solution would be disastrous for residents and risky for the oil industry. Most facilities are in the maze of creeks and rivers that are particularly vulnerable to raids by well-armed militants with intimate knowledge of the terrain. But inaction risks escalating and entrenching the conflict at a time when tensions are already rising in advance of the 2007 national elections.
MEND increasingly serves as an umbrella organisation for a loose affiliation of rebel groups in the Delta. It has not revealed the identity of its leaders or the source of its funds but its actions demonstrate that it is better armed and organised than previous militant groups. Observers warn that a worst-case scenario could lead to a one to two-year shutdown of the oil industry in the Delta, where most of Nigeria’s 2.3 million daily barrels of crude oil originate.


Full Document
http://www.sweetcrudemovie.com/pdf/icgaugust2006.pdf

marct
01-19-2007, 09:05 PM
Full Document
http://www.sweetcrudemovie.com/pdf/icgaugust2006.pdf

Really good paper, thanks for posting it!

Marc

georgev
01-19-2007, 09:24 PM
Full Document
http://www.sweetcrudemovie.com/pdf/icgaugust2006.pdf

Hi!
Thank you very much for doc. Good to know!
Regards,
George

sgmgrumpy
01-19-2007, 11:23 PM
We The Ijaws, the predominant indigenous people in the Niger Delta, moved to the Delta over 7,000 years. We have a distinctive language.

The Niger River Delta, one of the largest and beautiful deltas in the world, is the largest delta in Africa, and it covers approximately 14,000 square miles (36,260 square kilometers). Its origination is in the highlands of the Fouta Djallon Plateau in western Guinea 150 miles (240 kilometers) from the Atlantic Ocean.

From Lokoja in Nigeria, the Niger travels south 250 miles or 400 kilometers, becoming a great fan shaped delta before emptying into the Ijaw Gulf. It is this delta that we the Ijaws have called home for over 7,000 years.


Ijaw Website
http://www.unitedijawstates.com/


Another good read:


Militancy and Security in the Niger Delta

The Bottom Line
The ongoing security situation for foreign oil companies and ex-patriots in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria remains highly
adverse. Increased militant activity targeting oil production assets, oil workers and government forces will continue, and
further disruption to oil production in the Delta is expected. The threat of kidnap remains high and hostage taking of oil
workers has been occurring in the states of Bayelsa, Delta, River as well as at sea and from offshore oil rigs – on 2 June
eight foreign oil workers employed by Dolphin Drilling Ltd were abducted from Fred Olsen Energy ASA-owned Buford Dolphin
oil rig 60 km of the coast near Warri in an early morning raid . There have also been troubling tactical developments with
urban terrorism emerging in Port Harcourt, including a car bombing at an army barracks on 20 April, the shooting of a US oil
services company executive on 11 May and the murder of six policemen on 15 May. There is a high degree of instability and
civil unrest in the states of Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Ondo and River, with ethnic and religious rivalries
frequently erupting in violence. Recent attacks have also targeted government security forces, which provide security for
foreign oil companies. On 21 May, a communiqué was issued by Ijaw militants announcing a new alliance of the most prolific
militant groups in the region and their intention to launch a new offensive over the coming weeks.


Militancy and Security in the Niger Delta
June 2006
http://www.riskadvisory.net/uploads/media/060606_janusian_thinking_-_Nigeria.pdf

Eddie Beaver
01-21-2007, 08:31 PM
Tension has ebbed and flowed in the US security relationship with Nigeria, most notably portrayed in Dana Priest's excellent "The Mission", where the Nigerians were all about "give us the guns" while the US was intent on human rights training before anything else.

The Beijing Consensus certainly doesn't work like that. As the Chinese increasingly edge out the US in providing security training, weapons and cash to the Nigerian obligarchy (a process that could be sped up depending on who wins power in the upcoming Nigerian elections), the government's tactics against peaceful protests and violent rebellion alike will edge toward systematic scorched earth tactics which will only worsen the insurgency.

Given the propensity for ethnic cleansing and mass murder on behalf of the government in Nigeria's history, this will not end well and could be the big fissure that helps dismember Nigeria along religious, ethnic and even tribal lines. The chances of US intervention of some sort (whether US soldiers, special ops or private contractors like Blackwater) in Southern Nigeria (just like in Southern Sudan) will rise dramatically once it becomes a resource war shrouded in holy and ethnic terms.

Jedburgh
03-30-2007, 03:06 AM
ICG, 28 Mar 07: Nigeria's Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/123_nigeria_s_elections_avoiding_a_political_crisi s.pdf)

...An election that produces widely disputed results could itself lead to post-election violence, which could degenerate into wider and more intense forms of conflict, threatening the nation’s stability. Electoral malpractice and violence were the military’s justification for seizing power in 1966 and 1983. Violence associated with elections, therefore, poses a serious threat not only to the April 2007 elections but also to Nigeria’s continued path towards stable, democratic development. This in turn could have far-reaching consequences for Africa. The elections urgently need to be salvaged.

Jedburgh
04-13-2007, 02:20 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 12 Apr 07:

Guide to the Armed Groups Operating in the Niger Delta – Part 1 (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373321)

During the course of the last year in Nigeria's oil-rich but turbulent Niger Delta region, armed men kidnapped more than 150 foreigners, killed unknown numbers of Nigerian armed forces personnel, crippled the oil production of Africa's largest oil exporter by nearly a quarter and detonated five car bombs. There is a bewildering variety of armed groups operating in the delta, ranging from community vigilantes to armed political movements to criminal gangs. The groups, whose aims and members often overlap, are involved in activities that include kidnapping, theft of crude oil, attacking oil infrastructure, extortion, bombings, murders and rigging elections. Without adequate equipment or political will, the military cannot tackle the problem effectively. Unrest in the Niger Delta can be traced back to the beginning of oil exploration, when impoverished communities were exploited and polluted, while billions of dollars were extracted from underneath their feet (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370099). In many cases, however, criminal elements and corrupt politicians have exploited the expression of legitimate grievances and armed many of these groups for their own ends. The emergence of modern militant groups is closely related to politics, corruption and bad governance in the delta. Both the 2003 polls and this month's coming elections have strengthened pre-existing armed groups.

For the purposes of clarity, this two-part analysis focuses on militias and gangs—with part two focusing exclusively on the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)—and discusses the existence of community groups within that framework. It also explains their leadership structures and links to politicians. In reality, the distinctions are somewhat arbitrary. The gunmen and the government are as tangled together as the mangrove roots of the swamps in the Niger Delta....

tequila
04-13-2007, 02:37 PM
Prominent Muslim cleric killed in mosque (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6551489.stm). Right before elections.


Cleric killed in Nigeria mosque

A prominent Islamic cleric has been shot dead inside a mosque in the northern Nigerian city of Kano. Ustaz Ja'afar Adam and two followers were killed during dawn prayers.

He was once a key member of the Kano State government but has fallen out with the governor. The killing could be political, or a dispute between sects.

The death comes as President Olusegun Obasanjo warned that the government will "deal firmly" with acts of fraud and violence in forthcoming elections.

In a national radio and TV broadcast, Mr Obasanjo said "highly placed individuals" were encouraging violence.

...

Haruna Idris, one of Mr Adam's disciples, told the AFP news agency that gunmen had shot the cleric twice.

"The two assailants rushed out of the mosque and jumped into a car with a driver at the wheel and sped off," he said.

The biggest issue in the elections is the future of my children, the future of Nigeria's children

Thousands of people had gathered at the mosque, AFP reports.

Police spokesman Haz Iwendi told the BBC News website that the killing "would not endanger tomorrow's elections in Kano."

tequila
04-19-2007, 12:00 PM
How to Steal an Election (http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9032254&top_story=1) - Economist.


... The presidential election in particular, scheduled to take place later this week, was supposed to herald a new chapter in Nigeria’s democratic advance. Olusegun Obasanjo is supposed to hand power over to his elected successor, the first such transition since independence in 1960. That may still happen, but at a dreadful price. The lengths to which Mr Obasanjo’s ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has gone to cling to power has discredited so many of Nigeria’s institutions and office-holders that the country now seems more a prisoner of its bleak past than a beacon for the future.

So blatant was vote-rigging and fraud in the 36 state elections last weekend that, on Tuesday April 17th, all the opposition parties demanded that those elections be voided and the presidential poll be postponed. On Wednesday the government rejected the call.
...

Things were particularly bad in the oil-rich Delta region, where patently false 95% turn-outs were being recorded in some areas. Voters were routinely intimidated by gunmen who also stole ballot-boxes in front of journalists. An observer from Human Rights Watch, a pressure-group, described the vote-rigging as “shameless”. Privately, EU observers said that in half-a-dozen states there was no real election. Some 50 people are said to have died in violence and protesters burned down several election commission offices ...

Jedburgh
05-15-2007, 02:05 PM
ISN, 14 May 07: Nigeria: Oil Insurgency Enters New Phase (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17616)

....After a lull following Nigeria's controversial general elections, rebels have launched a new surge in attacks on the country's oil industry. At least 29 foreign oil workers have been kidnapped and major pipelines transporting oil to export terminals have been sabotaged in a rash of attacks since the beginning of May.

These attacks represent the worst violence targeting oil operations in the world's eighth-biggest exporter in more than a year, signifying a worsening of the insurgency with government troops yet to find a way to counter the insurgents' guerrilla tactics. As in the past, most of the hostages were freed unharmed but at least 13 are still being held.

Worst hit in the latest attacks has been the Nigerian subsidiary of Italian energy company ENI Spa, forced to shelve exports of 98,000 barrels of oil daily, and US firm Chevron, which has evacuated hundreds of workers and cut back its Nigerian production by 57,000 barrels a day.....

SWJED
05-31-2007, 09:22 AM
31 May LA Times - President Inaugurated in Nigeria (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-nigeria30may30,1,6793038.story?coll=la-headlines-world) by Robyn Dixon.


Umaru Yar'Adua was sworn in Tuesday as Nigeria's president, pledging to be a humble "servant-leader" and to push through political reform after his election last month was widely criticized by international and local observers.

In a muted style markedly different from that of his ebullient and flamboyant predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, Yar'Adua said he would fight poverty and corruption and reduce violent crime in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The kidnappings of foreign oil workers there have intensified in recent months, casting a shadow over the country's most important industry...

With Nigeria regularly ranked among the most corrupt countries by the independent group Transparency International, which analyzes corruption and accountability, Yar'Adua said all elected officials must change their "style and attitude."...

tequila
05-31-2007, 04:06 PM
Nigeria: Failed Elections, Failing State? (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4876&l=1)- ICG report, 30 May.


Nigeria’s democracy is in crisis. The April 2007 elections were supposed to move the country to a higher rung on the democratisation ladder, create a more conducive environment to resolve its many internal conflicts and strengthen its credentials as a leading peacemaker, but instead generated serious new problems that may be pushing it further towards the status of a failed state. The declared winner, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, assumed the presidency on 29 May with less legitimacy than any previously elected president and so with less capacity to moderate and resolve its violent domestic conflicts ...

Jedburgh
06-15-2007, 01:46 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 12 Jun 07:

MEND's Fluid Leadership Structure (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373463)

...According to Dr. Ike Okonta, a research fellow at the University of Oxford, the coalition of insurgents that make up MEND are guided by a "collegiate leadership." Dr. Okonta writes that the core leadership of MEND "does not in any way constrain the ability of the various units to make their own decisions and mount military attacks independent of the others. The units plan their attacks separately, but are able to coordinate with other units in joint expeditions when necessary. Consequently, they are active in all parts of the delta, adopting hit and run tactics and making it difficult for federal troops to box them into a particular area and launch a massive attack".

MEND's leadership is highly amorphous, and various leaders—such as General Columbus Brutus Ebipade, Jomo Gbomo, General Tammo or Akpos Nabena—frequently issue statements on behalf of the group. The above names are believed to be pseudonymous, and MEND is careful not to reveal the true identities of its various commanders. MEND possesses hubs in various states across the Niger Delta area—primarily in Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers and Ondo states—which are in communication with each other. In 2006, MEND and related groups such as the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, the Martyrs Brigade and the Coalition of Militant Action forged a clearing house for their joint activities. The clearing house was named the Joint Revolutionary Council, which coordinates the various activities of disparate networks such as MEND. The JRC is led by Cynthia Whyte, an influential member of Mujahid Dokubo-Asari's NDPVF.

MEND draws combatants from existing militias and cult collectives. In Delta state, for example, the Federated Niger Delta Ijaw Communities populates and controls MEND. Government Ekpemupolo, the director of mobilization for FNDIC, is a senior commander of MEND. His counterpart in Rivers state is Soboma George, who leads the Outlaws cult....

SteveMetz
06-15-2007, 01:50 PM
ICG appears to be the only source that continues to monitor this situation in-depth

I'm participating in a wargame next week that deals with it.

Jedburgh
07-07-2007, 03:47 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 6 Jul 07:

Nigeria's Cults and their Role in the Niger Delta Insurgency (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373530)

In Nigeria's delta region, various militant groups continue to attack multinational energy interests by blowing up infrastructure, siphoning oil and gas from pipelines and kidnapping expatriate energy staff. Additionally, these groups often attack Nigerian security services. The origin of the militant groups in the delta today can partially be explained by the evolution of Nigeria's cult groups, more generally known as confraternities. Nigerian confraternities were largely the precursor to many of the militant groups in the delta. While confraternities began in the country's universities, these gangs eventually spread to the streets and creeks of the energy-rich delta region....

Jedburgh
08-03-2007, 04:23 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 2 Aug 07:

Mujahid Dokubo-Asari: The Niger Delta's Ijaw Leader (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373587)

Among the restive Ijaw population in Nigeria's troubled, energy-rich delta region, one man stands alone as the most recognizable face of resistance: Mujahid Dokubo-Asari. Asari has been a central figure in the Ijaw cause, forming in late 2003 one of the delta's most notorious Ijaw militant groups, the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF). Through this militant youth organization, Asari fought rival gangs, siphoned oil and gas from pipelines, destroyed energy infrastructure and declared an "all-out war" on the Nigerian state. Despite his arrest in September 2005, Asari continued to communicate with his followers, and he became an important symbolic figure for various Ijaw armed groups in the delta. These groups listed Asari's detention as one of their core grievances against the Nigerian state. On June 14, 2007, partially in an effort to pacify Ijaw demands, the newly-installed government of President Umaru Yar'Adua released Asari from prison. Since regaining his freedom, Asari has continued to play a role in the Ijaw struggle....

sgmgrumpy
08-03-2007, 07:03 PM
Nigerian Shia base knocked down (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6926119.stm)


Nigeria's security forces have demolished the headquarters of a Shia sect, whose members were accused of killing a rival Muslim cleric.
The security forces destroyed a school, a clinic and the living quarters of the sect in the north-western Sokoto state.

Although no official explanation was given for the demolition, it is being suggested that it is part of a plan to expel the group from the city.

Shia leader Kasimu Rimin Tawaye and some 100 followers remain in detention.

Mr Tawaye and his supporters were arrested after street fighting between them and followers of a prominent Sunni cleric, who was shot dead three weeks ago.

The cleric, Umaru Danmaishiyya, well-known in Sokoto for his sermons against Shias, was shot in a mosque on 18 July and died the following day.

A man was lynched shortly after the shooting and Sunni mobs tried to attack a Shia residential compound.

Sokoto, a deeply religious city, sits on the fringes of the Sahara desert and is the seat of the Sultan of Sokoto, spiritual leader of Nigeria's estimated 70 million Muslims.

In the past Sokoto has avoided the unrest that has affected many other northern Nigerian cities.

The Sokoto state government is expected to issue a statement shortly on the decision to demolish the Shia headquarters.

Jedburgh
10-10-2007, 01:31 PM
HRW, 9 Oct 07: Criminal Politics: Violence, “Godfathers” and Corruption in Nigeria (http://hrw.org/reports/2007/nigeria1007/nigeria1007webwcover.pdf)

Nigeria is mired in a crisis of governance. Eight years since the end of military rule, the country’s longest-ever stretch of uninterrupted civilian government, the conduct of many public officials and government institutions is so pervasively marked by violence and corruption as to more resemble criminal activity than democratic governance.

This report documents what Human Rights Watch considers to be the most important human rights dimensions of this crisis: first, systemic violence openly fomented by politicians and other political elites that undermines the rights of Nigerians to freely choose their leaders and enjoy basic security; second, the corruption that both fuels and rewards Nigeria’s violent brand of politics at the expense of the general populace; and third, the impunity enjoyed by those responsible for these abuses that both denies justice to its victims and obstructs reform....

Jedburgh
12-08-2007, 06:51 PM
ICG, 5 Nov 07: Nigeria: Ending Unrest in the Niger Delta (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/135_nigeria___ending_unrest_in_the_niger_delta.pdf )

Immediately after the April elections, government officials sounded optimistic about significant early improvement in the Niger Delta. Instead, the intervening months have seen increasingly incendiary threats from MEND and continued volatility in the creeks. On 1 December, at the closing ceremony of the army’s largest combat training program, “Exercise Eagle Ring 5”, Defence Minister Yayale Ahmed expressed concern that despite government efforts toward ending unrest in the Niger Delta, the situation remains a threat to national security, “as militants are still busy carrying out their operations”.

The Yar’Adua administration has taken the first tentative steps toward confronting the region’s problems but these have to be deepened and sustained. Improving security and building peace in the Delta requires not more rhetoric but determined efforts by government, oil companies, international development agencies and the people of the region alike. The government must go beyond seemingly interminable consultations and quickly come to grips with the core issues that have defined the conflicts in the region for over two decades. If it wastes the present opportunity, worse violence and lawlessness is highly likely.
Complete 29 page paper at the link.

Surferbeetle
04-17-2008, 01:34 PM
From this mornings Financial Times (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/048f2014-0bdf-11dd-9840-0000779fd2ac.html):


Nigeria risks losing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways to boost investment in joint ventures with foreign energy companies, an internal report by President Umaru Yar’Adua’s energy advisers warns.

The progess report, seen by the Financial Times, highlights the government’s need to find ways to finance the oil industry in the country. It comes after an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company’s joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $115.45 a barrel on Thursday.

Traders are already worried about Russia’s oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked at about 10m barrels a day.

Surferbeetle
04-21-2008, 07:01 PM
From today's Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af7afpJygLm0&refer=home):


April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $117 a barrel in New York after rebel attacks in Nigeria reduced output.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc said an attack last week in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, forced the suspension of 169,000 barrels a day on top of output lost through previous assaults since 2006. OPEC should help ``replenish'' oil inventories because prices are ``too high,'' International Energy Agency Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said today.

``We are clearly headed over $120 a barrel and we are targeting $125,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``The last thing we need is another supply disruption. The outage certainly adds to the bullish sentiment.''

Jedburgh
06-27-2008, 12:23 PM
ISN Security Watch, 27 Jun 08: Niger Delta: Nowhere to Hide (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=19131)

Militants in Nigeria's southern delta have destroyed the myth that offshore oilfields are safe by attacking, last week, Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Bonga field, which lies some 120 kilometers into Atlantic waters.

With the Nigerian military apparently unable to stop the attacks, analysts believe the government should either reach a negotiated settlement to the conflict or risk the intervention of foreign powers keen to secure oil supplies....

AdamG
07-28-2008, 08:43 PM
LAGOS (AFP) - - Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell cut output in southern Nigeria Monday after militants sabotaged at least one of its pipelines supplying crude, officials said.

Shell declined to say by how much production was being reduced, stressing that the amount should not be exaggerated because of the possible effect on oil prices.


*

"In keeping with our pledge to resume pipeline attacks within the next 30 days, detonation engineers backed by heavily armed fighters from MEND today, Monday, July 28, 2008 at about 0115 hours sabotaged two major pipelines in Rivers state of Nigeria," the MEND said in an email.

"The first pipeline is located in Kula which has been previously sabotaged by us and the second in Rumuekpe, both belonging, we believe, to the Shell Petroleum Development Company."


http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080728/twl-nigeria-oil-unrest-company-shell-4bdc673.html

Jedburgh
07-28-2008, 10:13 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 25 Jul 08:

The Global Repercussions of Nigeria’s Niger Delta Insurgency (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2374333)

The “oilfield” wars in Nigeria’s Delta region have been in the international spotlight from the emergence of the Ken Saro-Wiwa-led Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP (http://www.mosop.net/)) in 1990 to the current insurgency led by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). This latter group is known for its tactic of hostage-taking and its frequent clashes with the Nigerian military. The activities of MEND have greatly influenced (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/28/afx5260487.html) peak global oil prices with consequences for production capacities and consumption.....

Jedburgh
09-20-2008, 01:58 PM
ICG, 18 Sep 08: Nigeria: Ogoni Land after Shell (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/b54_nigeria___ogoni_land_after_shell.pdf)

.....The exit of Shell/SPDC from Ogoni land, an event much anticipated by the people, will draw the curtain on one of the most contentious relationships between an oil company and a local community in the Niger Delta. It also provides an opportunity for the government to show greater goodwill and sensitivity to the ethnic minority groups of the region. If handled carefully, this transition could persuade some of the Delta’s armed groups that non-violence can produce progress on their demands. If handled poorly, it will not only intensify the Delta insurgency but also set the stage for a new crisis between the Ogoni and SPDC’s successor company......

davidbfpo
07-26-2009, 10:23 PM
We all know that Nigeria has a large Muslim community, mainly in the north and that in several states Sharia law has been introduced. Clashes have in the past occurred between Christians and Muslims, often ended by national (federal) action.

These two short articles illustrate: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8169359.stm and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/5912935/Dozens-of-Nigerian-pro-Taliban-Islamists-killed-after-police-station-raid.html


(From the later) Around 70 fighters from the fundamentalist group armed with guns and grenades attacked a police station in Nigeria's northern Bauchi state early on Sunday, but retreated after officers opened fire.

Kevin23
07-26-2009, 11:24 PM
We all know that Nigeria has a large Muslim community, mainly in the north and that in several states Sharia law has been introduced. Clashes have in the past occurred between Christians and Muslims, often ended by national (federal) action.

These two short articles illustrate: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8169359.stm and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/5912935/Dozens-of-Nigerian-pro-Taliban-Islamists-killed-after-police-station-raid.html

All this extremist action along with the religious violence seems to be fairly isolated by region. Even though Christian-Muslim relations aren't perfect in Nigeria, they still for the vast majority live in peace. In addtion Nigeria has much larger problems in society then this.

Well at least that's my two cents.

Tom Odom
07-28-2009, 05:42 AM
All this extremist action along with the religious violence seems to be fairly isolated by region. Even though Christian-Muslim relations aren't perfect in Nigeria, they still for the vast majority live in peace. In addtion Nigeria has much larger problems in society then this.

Well at least that's my two cents.

Certainly Nigeria has its other problems. But it has been and still is a border state between largely Muslim northern Africa and southern Christian, animist, etc Africa. The insurgency in the oil bearing zone is fueled largely by tribal conflicts over who controls and therefore benefits from oil exploitation. The cross religious conflict is widespread and therefore potentially is a greater threat.

Tom


Nigeria: Scores die after battle with militants (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/07/27/nigeria.violence.deaths/index.html)

LAGOS, Nigeria (CNN) -- As many as 150 people may have been killed as Islamic militants battled Nigerian government police and troops Sunday and Monday in the north-central part of the nation, officials said.

More than 150 alleged militants were arrested by Nigerian police after clashes.

Police and troops were dispatched to the militants' hideouts after militants began attacks on government establishments early Sunday, said police spokesman Moses Anegbode.

As authorities exchanged fire with the militants, 41 people, including a soldier and a policeman, were killed, Anegbode said. In addition, some 176 people were arrested in Bauchi, he said.

Besides Bauchi, militants also staged attacks on the nearby states of Yobe and Borno on Sunday and Monday, said Emmanuel Ojukwu, spokesman for the national police.

davidbfpo
07-29-2009, 11:33 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/28/AR2009072800370.html?wprss=rss_world/wires


no conclusive evidence of al Qaeda's presence in Nigeria or of links to the Taliban in Afghanistan have been made public and Boko Haram's apparently chaotic tactics have little in common with those of Islamic militant groups elsewhere

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8172270.stm


The BBC's Caroline Duffield, in Lagos, says the group's member have isolated themselves from the rest of the community. She says there have been incidents where local groups have prevented them from meeting in mosques and there is very little support for their stance in the wider community…. no-one seems to know just how big a threat the so-called Taliban pose, how big their membership is, or what their next move could be.

Further updates on: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8172437.stm

Couldn't resist the title.

davidbfpo

Beelzebubalicious
07-30-2009, 11:07 AM
I just got back from Nigeria where I visited two northern states in preparation for a proposal for a usaid project focusing on local governance. Usaid has 3 current procurements in governance, health and education totalling somthing like $150 million.

Beelzebubalicious
07-30-2009, 11:16 AM
I meant to add that I heard a lot more about Muslim-Muslim clashes, mainly within the Sunni community over application of sharia as well as some persecution of Shia in the area.

Tom Odom
07-30-2009, 12:45 PM
Looks like the Nigerian Army played hardball


Nigerian Army Kills 100 at Islamic Mosque (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,535563,00.html?test=latestnews)
Thursday, July 30, 2009

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — Troops shelled the compound of an Islamist sect blamed for days of violence in northern Nigeria then attacked its mosque, killing at least 100 militants in a fierce battle.

Sect leader Mohammed Yusuf escaped along with about 300 followers but his deputy was killed in Wednesday night's bombardment, according to Army commander Maj. Gen. Saleh Maina.

The army was conducting

Beelzebubalicious
07-30-2009, 07:13 PM
I read that the group said they attacked b/c they were opposed to western education. From what I understand, this means westernizing Islamic education by adding math and science, not western education in general. Is that right!

Tom Odom
07-31-2009, 05:24 PM
uh it looks like a classic case of suicide while trying to escape or suicide by trying to escape or suicide for contemplating escape or a shoot out while trying to escape when his finger misfired

anyway

he did not escape....:rolleyes:


Captured leader of Nigerian militant sect is dead (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/07/30/nigeria.violence/index.html)

LAGOS, Nigeria (CNN) -- Mohammed Yusuf, the leader of a fundamentalist Islamist sect who was initially reported captured Thursday by the Nigerian military, is dead, said a spokesman for the governor of the state of Borno.

"I have just come from the police station and seen his body," said Usman Ciroma, chief secretary to the governor of Borno. "I believe he was killed in a shoot-out. ... I saw his body with bullet wounds."




Radical Islamic leader Mohammed Yusuf shot dead by Nigerian security forces (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article6735253.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797093)

Nigerian security forces claimed victory today over a radical Islamic sect blamed for some of the worst violence to hit the West African country for years after police shot dead its leader.

Mohammed Yusuf, leader of the so-called Nigerian Taleban, was killed after he was captured on Thursday night at the end of a four-day manhunt. His bullet-ridden body was shown to journalists by police shortly after his death.

Human rights campaigners immediately alleged that he had been executed and warned of revenge attacks. Police said today that he died in a shoot-out.

Update:


Probe sought in Nigerian hard-line Islamic leader's death (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/07/31/nigeria.violence/index.html)

From Christian Purefoy
CNN

LAGOS, Nigeria (CNN) -- Human rights groups pressed Friday for information on how a fundamentalist Islamist sect leader died and are seeking an investigation.

Mohammed Yusuf was initially reported captured Thursday by the military, but was found dead after he was turned over to police.

There has been no official explanation of Yusuf's death.

"We demand a full investigation into the circumstances of Mohammed Yusuf's murder," Shehu Sani, president of the Civil Rights Congress, said Friday. "Whether he was a militant leader or armed rebel, dying in police custody is not same as dying in armed combat."

Jedburgh
09-15-2009, 02:20 PM
CFR, 14 Sep 09: Understanding the Armed Groups of the Niger Delta (http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CFR_WorkingPaper_2_NigerDelta.pdf)

This paper, Understanding the Armed Groups of the Niger Delta, provides an in-depth analysis of the rise of militancy in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Most important, the paper provides insight into the origins and personalities of the various militant groups and their leaders. It explains the ways by which groups move from protest to violent activity, from acting against grievances to heavy involvement in criminal activity. The line between protest and criminality indeed often shifts, or overlaps. The importance of ethnic identities and rivalries are made clear, but equally the shifting of alliances and loyalties that sometimes cross ethnic lines, on the other hand sometimes lead to fissions within ethnic groups. Hints of political collusion with militants run through the narrative.

Tom Odom
09-20-2009, 03:11 PM
I sometimes wonder what nerve gets plucked that causes a government with as many problems as that in Nigeria to want to joust at windmills. I mean they only have an insurgency that is holding them back from truly using their oil resources, a corruption problem that sets regional if not world standards, and let us not forget, the art of the credit card-email scan. In the very best hotel in Abuja, one had to be financially suicidal to even flash a piece of plastic.

But here ya go: Nigeria is insulted by a South African horror film about aliens in Jo Burg makes ganster cannibals from Nigeria look bad.

Lord I miss Warren Zevon...

Tom


Nigeria Wants Apology for Country's Depiction in 'District 9' (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,552580,00.html?test=faces)

ABUJA, Nigeria — One of the summer's biggest blockbusters — a sci-fi morality tale about aliens and apartheid — is not welcome in Nigeria because of its portrayal of Nigerians as gangsters and cannibals, Nigeria's information minister said Saturday.

carl
09-22-2009, 01:18 AM
I don't know if this comment relates, but I was talking to a guy in Chad once. He spoke English and was fairly well educated by Chadian standards. He was also the type of guy who wanted to get ahead in the world and make something of himself.

He told me his big dream was to go to Lagos because that was where things happened and a man do something with his life. In N'Djamena, that wasn't going to happen.

That comment struck me because all the westerners I talked to thought Lagos was a hellhole. This guy saw it as the emerald city.

Tom Odom
09-22-2009, 05:25 AM
I don't know if this comment relates, but I was talking to a guy in Chad once. He spoke English and was fairly well educated by Chadian standards. He was also the type of guy who wanted to get ahead in the world and make something of himself.

He told me his big dream was to go to Lagos because that was where things happened and a man do something with his life. In N'Djamena, that wasn't going to happen.

That comment struck me because all the westerners I talked to thought Lagos was a hellhole. This guy saw it as the emerald city.

That is hilarious! The Nigerians created Abuja because they could not fix Lagos. Then again I have been to N'Djemena--1984 when it was kind of a minature Khartoum with bullet holes. Maybe your guy planned to open a credit card/loan business--you know to move money that has just been found if someone is willing to front a small service fee :D

Tom

carl
09-22-2009, 06:31 AM
I was last in N'Djamena in 2005 and the bullet holes are still there; and I'm told more have been added since. There was also the crashed airplane on short final. N'Dolo had one of those too, only there you couldn't see it if the Congo river was high. It was next to the sunken boats. Those sunken boats were very useful actually. When visibility was low, you could pick out the sunken hulks easier than the airport, so you made your approach with reference to the wrecks.

What made that comment memorable to me is that really brought home how differently the world is viewed by an African stuck in a place where nothing much good can happen to him. It helped me understand why people keep streaming into those seeming dystopias. They are willing to put up with it for just a slightly better chance.

davidbfpo
09-22-2009, 09:48 AM
The desire to reach Nigeria from Chad is also seen in the apparently relentless flow of Nigerians to South Africa - seen as a land of opportunity. The TV documentaries I've seen, most recently on C4, were of Nigerians in downtown Jo'burg, in Hillbrow - a once risque area, now "off limits". See Google: http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=hillbrow+%2B+nigerians&hl=en&rlz=1T4ADBF_en-GBGB312GB313&sa=N&tbo=1&tbs=tl:1&num=20&ei=bNm4SuDmMuSgjAeq5Jj-BQ&oi=timeline_navigation_bar&ct=timeline-navbar&cd=1

The South African sci-fi film 'District 9' has some content that has upset the Nigerians, I suspect some comparisons are made between Nigerians and the newcomers. Check the BBC story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8264180.stm and this is a UK review of the film: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/filmreviews/6133078/District-9-review.html

davidbfpo

Jedburgh
10-28-2009, 04:02 PM
MICROCON, 27 Oct 09: How Do Ethnic Militias Perpetuate in Nigeria? A Micro-level Perspective on the Oodua People’s Congress (http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP19_YG.pdf)

Recent seminal contributions in the literature on civil conflicts have explored the micro-foundations of collective political violence. A great deal of attention is now paid to the non-state collective actors that organize violence and the specific constraints and challenges they face: gathering funds, recruiting combatants, enforcing rank and files’ commitment. The strategies implemented to solve these challenges have been shown to influence crucial outcomes such as the intensity of violence or the sustainability of violent groups over time.

The paper discusses the recently promoted view that organized insurgent violence should either be conducted by activists bonded together by social capital ties or self interested quasi-mercenaries, depending on the type of financial resources available to the group. We contrast this perspective with the study of an ethnic Nigerian militia, the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC) (http://ooduapeoplescongress.org/index.htm).

Section II discusses the existing conceptual frameworks related to violent organizations and states our analytical puzzle. Section III details and interprets our empirical findings on the organizational dynamics of the OPC. Section IV presents and comments the results concerning OPC militants’ profiles and subjective motives for violent engagement. Section V concludes.

Jedburgh
11-18-2009, 11:50 PM
The Economist, 12 Nov 09: Nigeria: Hints of a new chapter (http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14843563)

....unusually hopeful things are happening in the Delta. As a direct consequence of the corruption and waste now being exposed in Bayelsa and other Delta states, a violent insurgency has wracked the region since 2004. Dozens of heavily armed gangs started attacking the oil industry, sabotaging installations and pipelines and kidnapping foreign oil workers. The militants claimed to be acting on behalf of neglected, disfranchised local communities, whose lands had been polluted by the oil companies and who received almost no money from the rich state governors. The militants were joined by criminals interested merely in a quick return from kidnapping.

Yet over the past three months the militants have been giving up both themselves and their guns in unprecedented numbers. The federal government has promised them an unconditional pardon for past crimes, a small stipend to live on and the promise of retraining in order to “reintegrate” into society. A couple of similar amnesty programmes were tried before, and failed, but this one seems to be working. In Bayelsa alone, by the end of October, more than 6,000 former guerrillas had turned themselves in. In Rivers state, the heart of the insurgency, another 6,000 had given up. Across the whole of the Delta region, the total may exceed 15,000. No one knows for sure how many militants are still in the creeks, but Nigerian officials claim that these numbers mean the end of the insurgency. Their optimism seemed to be justified when the Movement for the Emancipation of the Delta (MEND), the main umbrella group for the insurgents, declared an indefinite ceasefire on October 25th.....

sgmgrumpy
11-19-2009, 12:29 AM
Jed,

Good find. Been spider webbing all the groups in Nigeria for sometime. This one statement sums it all up though.


A couple of similar amnesty programmes were tried before, and failed, but this one seems to be working. :rolleyes:

That pile of weapons doesn't even scratch the surface of whats in that place, and I would assume or at least hope going after the weapon smuggling coming in from Ghana would be a high priority. I give this two months if that.

Probably the most accurate description:

Armed Gangs Dominate Nigeria's Oil-Rich Region (http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2009-04/2009-04-19-voa18.cfm?moddate=2009-04-19)
By Gilbert da Costa
Abuja
19 April 2009




"You discover that even our young kids, even at the level of primary school; you see them engaging in most of these clandestine organizations and activities," said Onyebueke. "And it is causing a lot of disruptions. Most of them go into drugs, most of them take to violent crimes and you discover most of them going mental at very young ages. Some of them become dropouts and touts and that affects their productivity. And that also affects our economy."



Violence in the delta, a wetlands region, is rooted in poverty, corruption and lawlessness. The region has the highest unemployment rate in Nigeria and is the most impoverished. Most inhabitants have seen few benefits from five decades of oil extraction that has damaged their environment.


You look at them like very violent groups; their communities do not look at them like violent groups," he continued. "They look at them like vanguard organizations through which they express their displeasure; they express their anger on the exploitation of their land to the government. So most of the time we do not brand them violent or secret cults because their communities do not tag them that."

davidbfpo
01-01-2010, 04:11 AM
In a BBC report on Nigeria and the Xmas bomber is a relevant sentence:

President Umaru Yar'Adua is in hospital in Saudi Arabia with a serious heart compliant.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8436497.stm

Background to the President:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6187249.stm and includes:
In the past three years he has twice been flown to Germany for emergency treatment and visited hospitals in Saudi Arabia twice.

Kevin23
01-17-2010, 06:56 PM
Nigeria's President Umaru Yar'Adua has been missing altogether from the political scene in the country for well over two months, due to an illness which he has been seeking attention for in Saudi Arabia. His absence has created much speculation about Yar'Adua's medical state, including rumors in the Nigerian media that he is brain dead, among others. However all of this it appears if I am stating correctly have created much political and even some religious tension and even the possibility of a potential power vacuum in Nigeria due to the President of Nigeria's absence from the country.

Kevin23
01-17-2010, 10:10 PM
Nigeria's President Umaru Yar'Adua has been missing altogether from the political scene in the country for well over two months, due to an illness which he has been seeking attention for in Saudi Arabia. His absence has created much speculation about Yar'Adua's medical state, including rumors in the Nigerian media that he is brain dead, among others. However all of this it appears if I am stating correctly have created much political and even some religious tension and even the possibility of a potential power vacuum in Nigeria due to the President of Nigeria's absence from the country.

So I was wondering what is really going on with the Nigerian President, and what is the ramifications of all of this if he really is critically ill?

davidbfpo
01-17-2010, 10:23 PM
Kevin23,

I'd start with the BBC News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8458751.stm and the links it has. Lots of issues in clear sight and no doubt a few not so easy to discern. I am sure there is a good blogsite on Nigeria, I know nothing alas.

Beelzebubalicious
01-18-2010, 12:00 AM
This guardian article has a good overview and consequences
http://m.guardian.co.uk/?id=102202&story=http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/17/nigeria-yaradua-goodluck and a recent interview by BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8453988.stm
since it was a phone interview, some think it wasn't yar'adua

davidbfpo
04-13-2010, 08:12 PM
I am sure the inter-religious communal violence in Nigeria featured in SWJ Blog news summaries; it certainly appeared in the BBC and the odd newspaper report like in The Spectator recently:http://newstaging.spectator.widearea.co.uk/the-magazine/features/5879888/part_5/they-were-chanting-kill-kill-kill.thtml

This is a rather pessimistic overview:http://www.opendemocracy.net/martin-shaw/nigeria-and-politics-of-massacre

The author is:
Martin Shaw is a historical sociologist of war and global politics, and professor of international relations and politics at the University of Sussex.

He ends with:
The repeated massacres of hundreds of people are a challenge not only to Nigeria but to the world.

I fear that real politics mean that this 'challenge' is far from any agenda in the 'world' let alone the sometimes interventionist West, nor more locally. Yes, Hollywood had a role with a Bruce Willis film set in Nigeria and a US SOF intervention against orders; 'Tears of the Sun' see:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tears_of_the_Sun

Now, would AFRICOM be watching such developments - in a country where the USA has a strategic interest and to my limited knowledge no large presence of US citizens?

Dayuhan
04-14-2010, 01:26 AM
Now, would AFRICOM be watching such developments - in a country where the USA has a strategic interest and to my limited knowledge no large presence of US citizens?

I'm sure AFRICOM is watching Nigeria, along with many others; the US and the rest of the oil-importing nations have a strategic interest. As is so often the case in Africa, though, it's very easy to say that something must be done and very difficult to say what could be done that would have any realistic chance of success.

JMA
04-14-2010, 06:43 PM
I'm sure AFRICOM is watching Nigeria, along with many others; the US and the rest of the oil-importing nations have a strategic interest. As is so often the case in Africa, though, it's very easy to say that something must be done and very difficult to say what could be done that would have any realistic chance of success.

Honesty will indicate the US is not an effective player in Africa. Better leave it to Britain and France and let them cock it up.

Think Munroe doctrine and leave Africa to China.

Kevin23
05-06-2010, 07:16 AM
Earlier yesterday it was learned that the President of Nigeria Umaru Yar'Adua who has been ill for sometime, has died at age 58.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/africa/05/06/nigeria.president/index.html

It will be interesting to see what events if any transpire due to his death, and how this affects the state of affairs in Nigeria even though Vice President Goodluck Johnathan has been de facto President for a while now along with several other figures including the late President's wife.

Jedburgh
05-17-2010, 07:00 PM
SSI, 17 May 10: Sufism in Northern Nigeria: A Force for Counter-Radicalization? (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=989)

In light of the ongoing threats issued by Al Qaeda against the United States and its allies, the need to prevent the radicalization of young Muslim men and women remains as pressing as ever. Perhaps nowhere is this task more urgent than in the countries of West Africa. The global expanse of the ongoing war on terror places these territories in the frontline. With large Muslim populations that have hitherto remained mostly impervious to the advances of Islamism, the challenge now confronting the Nigerian government and the international community is ensuring that this remains the case. But in recent years, Islamist groups have been highly active in the region. The aim of this monograph is to assess the potential of Nigeria’s Sufi Brotherhoods to act, both individually and collectively, as a force for counter-radicalization, to prevent young people from joining Islamist groups.

AdamG
01-01-2011, 05:11 PM
Several people have been killed by a bomb blast at a bar near a barracks in Nigeria's capital, Abuja.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12099176

Copied verbatim, blame their web-editor.

JOS, (Nigeria), Dec 25 ((agencies):): The death toll from a series of Christmas Eve blasts in central Nigeria has risen to 32, the police commissioner said Saturday, while attributing the explosions to attacks with homemade devices.

police said, with the incident occurring in an area that has seen hundreds killed this year in sectarian clashes.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=120936&date=2010-12-26


BOMB BLAST: Al Jazeera Out to destabilse Nigeria – Presidency.
Headlines Jan 1, 2011
By Kingsley Omonobi

The presidency reacted angrily to a foreign media report that President Goodluck Jonathan has blamed Friday’s bombing at the Mogadishu barracks on the Islamic Sect, Boko Haram saying he couldn’t have said so since security agencies have not pin pointed any group as investigations was still on going.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/01/bomb-blast-al-jazeera-out-to-destabilse-nigeria-presidency/

See also
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1079

AdamG
01-18-2011, 06:15 PM
ABUJA, Nigeria – A team of U.N. weapons experts and observers examined a seized Iranian weapons shipment found at Nigeria's biggest port, authorities said Tuesday, a step toward possible new international sanctions against Iran.



Inside 13 cargo containers marked as building materials, inspectors in October found 107 mm artillery rockets, rifle rounds and other arms. Those rockets can accurately hit targets more than 5 miles (8.5 kilometers) away with a 40-foot (12-meter) killing radius. Insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq have used similar rockets against U.S. troops. China, the United States, and Russia manufacture versions of the rocket, as does Iran.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/af_nigeria_arms_seizure;_ylt=AmkQKJGSVRVLJPPm5B9rS K1nhVID;_ylu=X3oDMTM1dG10ZzJyBGFzc2V0Ay9zL2FwL2FmX 25pZ2VyaWFfYXJtc19zZWl6dXJlBGNjb2RlA21wX2VjXzhfMTA EY3BvcwM0BHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDd W50ZWFtZXhhbWlu


LAGOS, Nigeria, Jan. 18 (UPI) -- A trial in Nigeria at the end of the month is expected to expose details of an Iranian arms smuggling operation in Africa run by the Revolutionary Guards' clandestine arm, the al-Quds Force.

An Iranian, Azim Aghajani, identified by Nigerian authorities as a senior officer in the al-Quds Force, faces charges of smuggling 13 shipping containers loaded with weapons and ammunition that were uncovered Oct. 26 at the port of Lagos.

He was charged Nov. 25 along with three Nigerians for importing and attempting to export arms.

A second Iranian sought by the Nigerians, Ali Akbar Tabatabaei, listed as the commander of al-Quds Force operations in Africa, claimed diplomatic immunity when the arms were discovered.

He took refuge in the Nigerian Embassy in Abuja. He was flown to Tehran with Iranian Foreign Minister, Manuchehr Mottaki, who had made an emergency trip to Nigeria in November to soothe the diplomatic standoff triggered by the scandal.
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2011/01/18/Nigeria-trial-to-expose-Iran-gunrunning/UPI-22711295369722/#ixzz1BPe5VuiL

Jedburgh
01-19-2011, 02:17 AM
ICG, 20 Dec 10: Northern Nigeria: Background to Conflict (http://allafrica.com/download/resource/main/main/idatcs/00020452:21cfc614a9841e6c2fd491a49b5c8481.pdf)

Violence in northern Nigeria has flared up periodically over the last 30 years. Mainly in the form of urban riots, it has pitted Muslims against Christians and has seen confrontations between different Islamic sects. Although there have been some successes in conflict management in the last decade, the 2009 and 2010 troubles in Bauchi, Borno and Yobe states involving the radical Boko Haram (http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2009/08/boko-haram.html) sect show that violence still may flare up at any moment. If the situation were to deteriorate significantly, especially on Christian-Muslim lines, it could have serious repercussions for national cohesion in the build up to national elections (http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_9.pdf) in April 2011. To deal with the risks, community level initiatives need to be reinforced, a more subtle security response should be formulated and the management of public resources must be improved. While some in the West panic at what they see as growing Islamic radicalism (http://www.usip.org/files/resources/PB%2027%20Is%20Nigeria%20a%20Hotbed%20of%20Islamic %20Extremism.pdf) in the region, the roots of the problem are more complex and lie in Nigeria’s history and contemporary politics.....

Bob's World
01-19-2011, 12:09 PM
Agree that the issues in Nigeria have little to do with ideological radicalization; this is a populace that has been "radicalized" by their situation. The discovery of oil and its effects on the south of the country, and modern ideological salesmen peddling Islamist propaganda are merely working to turn up the heat in this troubled nation. Religion here is geographic and also makes clear breaks on interactions between segments of the larger populace. BL, these people are "radicalized" by their situation, not by their religion.

It's great that USAID wants to help, but such grassroots efforts serve ease our own consciences more than they work to address the problems driving such issues. My concern is the vast amount of oil coming out of Nigeria (I read somewhere that there is the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez oil spill in Nigeria every year due to lax rules (hard to believe that western oil companies would profit at the harm of the environment when rules allow them to...). More importantly the U.S. is like a teenage boy talking to a beautiful girl in such situations. Our judgment becomes impaired, and we do and put up with ridiculous crap that makes our friends shake their heads in wonder.

I suspect we are fearful to press the Nigerian government to make the substantive reforms that could mend the growing rifts in their populace (or address the damage to the global environment) due to a mix of strong lobbying by US Oil companies and concern that China, who is very strong in Africa, will supplant us as the main developer/consumer of this resource (much like we Blue Falconed Great Britain on the Saudi market years ago).

A bilateral US/China approach might be the most effective way to approach this, or a trilat US/EU/China approach. This is about economics and politics; so security constructs such as NATO are really not appropriate to the mission at hand. Unless we continue to ignore the problem and it erupts in a major way, that is.

davidbfpo
01-25-2011, 11:26 PM
A short article, which on a quick late read, is both pessimistic and hopeful. Almost sounds like "muddling through" is a colonial legacy that lives on.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/caroline-wells/nigeria-tottering-on-tip-of-anarchy

Dayuhan
01-26-2011, 01:06 AM
I suspect we are fearful to press the Nigerian government to make the substantive reforms that could mend the growing rifts in their populace (or address the damage to the global environment) due to a mix of strong lobbying by US Oil companies and concern that China, who is very strong in Africa, will supplant us as the main developer/consumer of this resource (much like we Blue Falconed Great Britain on the Saudi market years ago).

A bilateral US/China approach might be the most effective way to approach this, or a trilat US/EU/China approach. This is about economics and politics; so security constructs such as NATO are really not appropriate to the mission at hand. Unless we continue to ignore the problem and it erupts in a major way, that is.

The flaw in this reasoning lies in the apparent assumption that the US, or for that matter the EU, China, or any combination of the above, has the capacity to force "substantive reform" on the Nigerian government. I don't see any reason why that should be the case. They are not financially dependent - they will always find someone to buy the oil - and they know very well that no outside party is going to use force to get them to do what they don't want to do. If we try to push for reform they will either make a tepid cosmetic attempt to superficially satisfy us or simply tell us to shove it. If they do, what will we do?

Not intervening in the internal affairs of other nations doesn't necessarily mean that we are ignoring the problem. It can also mean accepting that it's not our problem to solve and that our capacity for positive influence is limited or nonexistent. We are neither the source of nor the solution to every problem in the world, and sometimes we have to let the people sort their issues out on their own. It's not always about us.

It is very likely - I would almost say inevitable - that Nigeria's problems will at some point "erupt in a major way". That's very likely to be a necessary step in Nigeria's political development. It's very likely that Nigeria's government will fall or be overthrown: certainly it deserves to be overthrown. When that happens we can work with pro-democracy forces (if there are any) to a limited extent: if we overdo it we're likely to do more harm than good. I don't think we should try to sustain or support the government, but taking the opposite route and trying to initiate or direct the process of political change can end up turning it into our process instead of theirs. That won't help.

We cannot "fix" Nigeria. Yes, it's a very unstable situation and it's likely to get more so. Yes, that's likely to cause significant disruption in oil markets and could hand us a severe price spike. That would not be in our interests, or China's, or the EUs, but to think that we can protect our interests by circumventing the political process and transforming the Nigerian government without conflict or disorder would be hubris of the highest degree.

AdamG
10-22-2011, 02:14 PM
I just stumbled upon this and considering how the Angolan Civil War set the stage for South African involvement in the 80s, thought it'd be of interest -


The fact that as many as 5,000 Nigerian troops fought in Angola around 1976-77 may be the most widely-unknown fact in the annals of Nigeria’s very long history of foreign military operations.
http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2010/12/12/nigerias-best-kept-military-secret-5000-troops-fought-in-angolas-first-civil-war/

I read IN SEARCH OF ENEMIES as a kid and the Nigerians were never mentioned in it.

http://www.amazon.com/Search-Enemies-Stockwell-John/dp/0393009262

Moderator's Note

This originally appeared in South Africa's COIN War and was moved due to it's potential value in a new thread. Original thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=10859&page=3 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php? t=10859&page=3)

davidbfpo
10-22-2011, 03:55 PM
There are a few threads on Nigeria on other matters, there is not one on its history of military intervention across sub-Sahara, mainly in West Africa and as AdamG id'd today way-back in Angola.

davidbfpo
10-22-2011, 04:14 PM
AdamG,

I too was surprised at this discovery and looking at the cited sources I am not totally convinced.

Robert Moss was a skilled Cold War journalist, of decidedly "hard line" views and reliant on sources not normally available, such as intelligence agencies and IMHO the South Africans. There are a couple of strange phrases in his report, for example:
...UNITA claims to have intercepted radio communications in English (the common language between the Nigerians, the Cubans and the MPLA)..

There was no common language, although I understood Spanish and Portuguese are not too apart.

The beegagle story refers to:
..It has now emerged.. Hardly, it refers to a 1977 story by Robert Moss and one solitary photo taken in 1977, which is sourced to un-named 'intelligence sources'. The photo used is actually of Nigerian troops in Somalia, a few years ago.

Without any cited sources Wikipedia's entry on the Nigerian Army refers to:
In December 1983, the new Major General Muhammadu Buhari regime announced that Nigeria could no longer afford an activist anti-colonial role in Africa.

With a few years Nigeria changed that stance, with the large scale ECOWAS intervention(s) and Wikipedia refers to:
Smaller army forces have been previously sent on UN and ECOWAS deployments in the former Yugoslavia, Angola, Rwanda, Somalia, and Sierra Leone.

See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Army

This later quote almost word for word appears in the US Sate Dept. backgrounder on Nigeria:http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2836.htm

Bill Moore
10-23-2011, 01:23 AM
In a foot locker I have a lot of historical resources on Africa, but a quick search of the web indicates that Nigerian support from the MPLA was mostly political. If the West didn't constrain their behavior, they may have provided more.

http://countrystudies.us/nigeria/80.htm


Relations with the Rest of Africa

The prevailing perception in Nigeria's foreign policy was that, as predominant the African leader, it should play a bigbrother role in relations with African states. Nigeria was a founding member of the OAU and often channeled major policy initiatives through that organization. Most of its relations with other African states took place outside the OAU framework but were guided by OAU principles. Nigeria's primary African commitment was to liberate the continent from the last vestiges of colonialism and to eradicate apartheid in South Africa. Promoting liberation had grown from a weak and conservative stance during the 1960s to an increasingly firm push after the civil war. This commitment was pursued most actively after Murtala Muhammad successfully backed the Movimento Popular de Libertao de Angola's ascent to power in Angola in 1975 by providing the swing vote in the OAU decision to recognize the MPLA. Nigeria had played a role in the independence of Zimbabwe and in the late 1980s was active in assisting Nambibia to achieve independence of Namibia. In the latter case, it contributed about US$20 million to assist the South West Africa People's Organization in the 1989 elections and other preparations for Namibian independence. The country also contributed financially to liberation movements in South Africa and to the front line states of Zambia, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, which were constantly harassed by South Africa. Although Nigeria's armed forces were among the largest in black Africa in the early 1990s, sizable military might has rarely been used in foreign policy.

http://www.mongabay.com/history/angola/angola-relations_with_other_african_states.html


Nigeria, which led the OAU in recognizing the MPLA-PT regime in 1975, went on to seek a leadership role in the campaign against South Africa's domination of the region, but Nigeria never forged very close ties with Angola. Nigeria's own economic difficulties of the 1970s and 1980s, its close relations with the West, and other cultural and political differences prevented Luanda and Lagos from forming a strong alliance.

AdamG
10-23-2011, 06:12 PM
Not spending alot of time digging into this, but the following was interesting -


(3) Eight Soviet fighters, probably MiG-17s, are reported being assembled in Luanda. These fighters arrived from an unknown source at the end of December. Eight MiGs, type unknown, are expected to be sent to Angola from Nigeria, numerous Cuban pilots arrived during December. The pilots are operating many aircraft now available to the MPLA including a Fokker Friendship F-27. The Cubans will operate the MiGs.

From a report by Henry Kissinger of 13 January 1976 gives an insight into the activities and hostilities in Angola
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB67/gleijeses1.pdf

M-A Lagrange
10-24-2011, 05:51 AM
Have a look at Angola:Anatomy of an oil state, Tony Hodges, African Issues.
There is at least 3 pages on the problematic of competition between Angola and Nigeria to be Africa biggest oil producer. And why an at war Angola was better than an at peace one for Nigeria.

Dayuhan
10-24-2011, 11:59 AM
Have a look at Angola:Anatomy of an oil state, Tony Hodges, African Issues.
There is at least 3 pages on the problematic of competition between Angola and Nigeria to be Africa biggest oil producer. And why an at war Angola was better than an at peace one for Nigeria.

I'm curious... why would it matter who produces more? Certainly there's no shortage of buyers, and there's not exactly a lot of downside price pressure. Geographically Angola is better positioned to ship to India and Asia, Nigeria is well positioned for shipping to Europe and the US. Can't really see how an increase in Angolan production hurts Nigeria, or vice versa.

Stan
10-24-2011, 01:43 PM
We use to call the interaction of African political and military elites “casual relationships”, which were relevant to all of Sub-Sahara when it came to interest in natural resources (even if they aren’t yours :D). Having personally reported on the blood diamonds and trade for weapons in Angola, I can safely say we are either all walking around with blinders on, or, we are ignoring our “minuscule” role (such as then support to UNITA and wealthy oil multinationals).

Illicit natural resource revenues in the 80s were a good way for the cleptocracies to stay afloat and preclude negotiating loan repayments to the IMF. Ironically, those same resources were also used as collateral in obtaining even more loans. The trouble nowadays is responsiveness to OPEC (controlled “reported” production) to maintain OPECs comfort zone. Angola is simply playing on global oil supply and demand (playing on the fact Nigeria can’t keep up).

davidbfpo
10-24-2011, 04:24 PM
I do recall during the Angolan civil war noting that the oilfields in Cabinda were US-owned and operated - cannot recall which company now. The operating company was in effect making a large contribution to the MPLA side; with their Cuban, East German and other allies alongside. Whilst the USA, private parties and notably South Africa were supporting UNITA.

Cabinda is separated from Angola by the DRC, with a spluttering insurgency by FLEC:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_for_the_Liberation_of_the_Enclave_of_Cabinda

The oil factor:
Cabinda produces 700,000 barrels (110,000 m3) of crude oil per day. Cabinda Oil is associated with Sonangol, Agip Angola Lda (41%), Chevron (39.2%), Total (10%) and Eni (9.8%).

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinda_(province)

ganulv
10-24-2011, 04:46 PM
I do recall during the Angolan civil war noting that the oilfields in Cabinda were US-owned and operated - cannot recall which company now.

Chevron (http://careers.chevron.com/global_operations/country_operations/angola/angola_privacy.aspx), formerly Gulf before the merger of the two companies.

Misifus
10-24-2011, 04:52 PM
I do recall during the Angolan civil war noting that the oilfields in Cabinda were US-owned and operated - cannot recall which company now. The operating company was in effect making a large contribution to the MPLA side; with their Cuban, East German and other allies alongside. Whilst the USA, private parties and notably South Africa were supporting UNITA.

Cabinda is separated from Angola by the DRC, with a spluttering insurgency by FLEC:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_for_the_Liberation_of_the_Enclave_of_Cabinda

The oil factor:

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinda_(province)

The company was owned by Gulf Oil back then. It is now owned by Chevron. I have been there plenty. The official name of the company is Cabinda Gulf Oil Company, Ltd. It is a Bermuda based company owned by Chevron. The company operates on a concession type agreement from the government of Angola, however, the company does not "own" the oil. Yes, back during the civil war the Cuban army protected the camp. An ironic twist of the Cold War. The protection was largely from Cabinda insurgents not UNITA insurgents. Cabinda had its own guerrilla movement so that it could breakaway from Angola. These guerrillas usually resided in one of the two Congos. Culturally Cabinda was not really part of Angola. The Portuguese joined the two administratively as they were pulling out. Angola decided to keep it that way due to the oil. The inhabitants of Cabinda speak as much French as they do Portuguese.

Ronald Reagan considered forcing Gulf to shut down it's operations and leave Cabinda but rethought the situation.

davidbfpo
11-10-2011, 12:47 PM
The recent attacks in Nigeria by the Boko Haram group had little coverage here, this is a link to a BBC News interview with a US academic observer:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15620601

Link to a BBC report on the attacks:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15597114

An in depth commentary, especially around the tactics used - the VBIED - is provided in 'The Rising Threat from Nigeria's Boko Haram Militant Group' is republished with permission of STRATFOR:http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111109-rising-threat-nigerias-boko-haram-militant-group?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=111110&utm_ter

One wonders if the group really rely on external training assistance. I have m' doubts.

KingJaja
11-10-2011, 06:47 PM
I'm Nigerian, I live in Nigeria and I have watched the Western discourse on Boko Haram and Nigeria with interest. I have a few comments.

Boko Haram is not all about Al Qaeda. There is a historical aspect to Islamic fundamentalism in North-Eastern Nigeria.

About thirty years ago, the Nigerian government dealt with the Maitatsine sect. The insurrection was put down and 4,000 were killed. Maitatsine seem to be the intellectual forebears of the Boko Haram movement. In addition, there has always been a strain of Islam in Nigeria that has not fully accepted the influence of the British and Western Civilisation.

There is also the economic dimension. The rise of Boko Haram strongly correlates with the decline of the booming textile mills of Northern Nigeria. Mass unemployment and low literacy rates lead to a very volatile situation. Pervasive corruption (three governors were accused of stealing $600 million), inflames already angry youth, making them prime targets for recruiting.

This fuels an insurrection against the established order which is seen as corrupt.

Boko Haram's initial targets include the brother of the Shehu of Bornu (one of the most respected traditional rulers) and government officials. Police incompetence and brutality led to an escalation of attacks against security agents (Abuja bomb blasts, Damaturu etc). The attack on Western interests is merely a logical extension of this.

The rank and file of the Nigerian Military is largely drawn from Northern Nigeria. So it is not inconceivable that some members of the Nigerian Military are sympathisers. Bomb-making in Nigeria is not new. As far back as 1986, a prominent Nigerian newspaper editor was assassinated by parcel bomb - the suspects were Nigerian military operatives. General Sanni Abacha went on a large bombing spree in the 1990's. So the source of bombs and bomb making could be closer home than we imagine.

This is a speculation, but it should be considered.

Why would Westerners be targeted? This might have something to do with the cosmic struggle between the good old US of A and Al Qaeda, but it may also have more to do with a common perception (held by both Muslims and Christians alike), that the West is the major force behind Nigeria's venal, corrupt and decadent leaders. The formation of AFRICOM and the Wikileaks revelations of secret visits by top US diplomats to Nigeria's most detested ex-military ruler (Ibrahim Babangida) might have something to do with it.

There is also a possibility that Boko Haram is being manipulated by several powerful elements in Northern Nigeria in order to destabilise the Jonathan administration (Jonathan is a Christian from Southern Nigeria).

The US has the best military technology on offer, but has close to zero understanding of the what is going on in Nigeria. And neither do many arm-chair pundits - take their opinions with a pinch of salt. There is no point creating expectations that you can intervene decisively if you don't understand the first thing about what's going on locally. There are many factors at play, there is a complex web of ethnicity, religion, poverty, government legitimacy, corruption, violence, propaganda and malice at play here. If the US couldn't distinguish between Sunni and Shia, they sure can't distinguish between Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri.

Short story: it's our fight, leave us alone to fight it.

omarali50
11-10-2011, 10:19 PM
I agree with Jaja. Leave the Nigerians to manage Nigeria. But as outsiders, we can still find general patterns and make very general predictions. I make some at http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/11/08/nigeria-boko-haram/

KingJaja
11-11-2011, 01:30 AM
I agree with your analysis. The US is geared up to fight the last war (against Al Qaeda) not the present war.

On September 11, 2001, Nigeria was consumed by a massive spree of Christian vs Muslim violence. The West largely forgot about this in the build up to Afghanistan and Iraq.

Boko Haram is a continuation of a long war that predates the birth of Osam Bin Laden - the struggle between Evangelical Christianity and Fundamentalist Islam interspersed with poverty and inter-ethnic tensions. From where you live in the West, you label it "terrorism". We see it as an identity war.

From Ivory Coast, to Nigeria, to Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. This war has been interpreted as a struggle between Islam and Christianity (and its supporters - i.e. the West). These Islamic fundamentalists look forward to fighting a modern day version of the Thirty Years Wars.

And the US might just grant them their wish by not reading the tea leaves correctly. Africa is full of fragile, failing states. The West needs to balance the risk of massive state failure across the Sahel with whatever benefits are to be gained from killing a few so-called "terrorists".

Once again, it's not your fight.

Chowing
11-14-2011, 07:08 PM
According to a recent BBC report, the official policy of the Nigerian government toward the Boko Haram terrorist group is one of “carrot and stick.” A major requisite of such a policy is for the government and Boko Haram to set down together and attempt to understand each party’s position and work toward some sort of compromise. Yet, back on February 23 of this year the Chief of Defense Staff, Air Chief Marshal Oluseyi Petinrin, seemed to express quite another position when he said that the defense commanders would never share a negotiation table with Boko Haram leaders.

So what next?

See complete article at Terrorism In Africa (http://terrorisminafrica.com/2011/11/how-should-nigeria-deal-with-boko-haram/).

Stan
11-14-2011, 08:06 PM
I don't know that "carrot and the stick approach" translates into peace talks. It seems to me the question is more "How should the Nigerian govt. deal with the Boko Haram Terrorists?"

I recall reading about a Nigerian request/U.S. offer to train on counter terrorism. If I'm not mistaken there are Nigerian military units already being trained or, even back home.

Dayuhan
11-15-2011, 04:13 AM
I recall reading about a Nigerian request/U.S. offer to train on counter terrorism. If I'm not mistaken there are Nigerian military units already being trained or, even back home.

I wonder what the actual content of this sort of training would be. Americans tend to push their definitions of "terrorism" into the mold of "AQ/international Islamist terrorism" whether or not it fits, which of course conditions the approaches used to counter it. I wonder how appropriate that would be to a situation where "terrorism" springs from long-running local sectarian conflict deriving primarily or entirely from local issues.

Possibly because I also live in a country where Americans have interpreted long running local sectarian conflict through the distorted lens of their views on international terrorism, I share KingJaJa's concerns about the prospects for US involvement. I hope we stay out of it.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 06:37 AM
I would be an enthusiastic supporter of US intervention / training if the US had a good track record with counter terrorism against Muslim fundamentalists (Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, anyone?). American advice usually results in tactics that blow problems out of proportion (Algeria).

You can't do an Algeria in Nigeria without Nigeria disintegrating.

The rank and file of the Nigerian Military is from the North and tends to be Muslim (a legacy of British rule). There is a limit to how far a Christian president could go without seriously compromising his grip on power. On the other hand, if the Christian population comes to the conclusion that Jonathan is being targeted by a host of forces sympathetic to Islam (many Christians share that view) then the bonds between the North and the South will be further broken.

Boko Haram presents a unique problem, because unlike the Niger Delta Militants they have unacceptable and unreasonable demands.

Boko Haram hints of a much more serious problem - tens of millions of poorly educated, unemployed youth across the entire Sahel region. They have no future, no-hope and are easy cannon fodder for the latest Islamic zealot. They are known locally as "almajiris" and they have been with us, forever. At least 1 million of them live in one city - Kano (in Northern Nigeria). At least 15 - 20 million live in Northern Nigeria.

The almajiri system works like this: at an early age boys are sent off with a begging bowl to be taught by a local mullah (who passed through the same almajiri system). They learn the Quran by rote in the morning and beg in the evening. They leave quranic school with no marketable skills and a very narrow view of the World.

It is easy to see how Boko Haram could hijack the almajiri system and create an massive army of willing cannon fodder in a very short time.

We saw this coming and warned the Nigerian Government to do something about it (the Nigerian Government was dominated by Northern politicians and generals from 1979 - 1999), yet nothing was done. This problem was ignored because the almajiri provided a steady supply of easily manipulated muscle.

The problem with Sub-Saharan Africa and the Muslim World is not "hatred of the US system of Government" or "Terrorism" but fifty years of bad governance, fifty years of unemployment and underinvestment in education and infrastructure. Africom cannot and will not solve these deep underlying problems.

For the first time in Africa, we have a generation that disrespects elders and authority figures (for the right reasons - our elders are liars and embezzlers of public funds). There is also massive disrespect of the instruments of authority (the Nigerian Security forces are even less liked than Boko Haram in MANY parts of Nigeria).

To such people, Osama Bin Laden (this may shock you) is an icon. He is seen as less of a terrorist and more of a Che Guevara type figure. (The ruling elite in the most corrupt and decadent regimes in Africa have strong ties with the West and Osama is the most prominent anti-Western figure in living memory for many of these young Muslim men).

(It is instructive to note that one of the most prominent Niger Delta Militants - Mujahid Dokubo Asari professed admiration for Osama Bin Laden, and the Niger Delta Area is predominantly Christian!).

Nigeria needs to provide employment opportunities and to educate its young men and women. Unfortunately the Nigerian Government neither has the capacity nor the desire to do so (and if the Nigerian Government cannot do it, then neither can USAID).

So a combination of Christian / Muslim violence in Nigeria's Middle Belt, Islamic terrorism and Niger Delta Militancy will eventually dismember the Nigerian State. The resulting states will hopefully, be more ethnically and religiously homogeneous and better adjusted to promote economic growth.

That is Nigeria's future and the US cannot stop it from happening.

Dayuhan
11-15-2011, 07:39 AM
To such people, Osama Bin Laden (this may shock you) is an icon.

No shock at all on my part, and I don't suppose many here would be shocked.


Nigeria needs to provide employment opportunities and to educate its young men and women. Unfortunately the Nigerian Government neither has the capacity nor the desire to do so (and if the Nigerian Government cannot do it, then neither can USAID).

Hypothetically, if an enlightened Nigerian Government embarked on a massive, sustained investment of oil income in industry and agriculture in poverty-stricken areas... would that make a difference in your opinion, or is it already too late? I realize that this scenario is both hypothetical and improbable.


So a combination of Christian / Muslim violence in Nigeria's Middle Belt, Islamic terrorism and Niger Delta Militancy will eventually dismember the Nigerian State. The resulting states will hopefully, be more ethnically and religiously homogeneous and better adjusted to promote economic growth.

That is Nigeria's future and the US cannot stop it from happening.

Thank you for an honest opinion, if not one that many would like to hear. It sounds a harsh future for Nigerians: even if the states resulting from such a dismemberment were more viable and had a better future, I'd guess that the process of getting to that future is likely to be difficult and violent.

Stan
11-15-2011, 08:18 AM
I wonder what the actual content of this sort of training would be. Americans tend to push their definitions of "terrorism" into the mold of "AQ/international Islamist terrorism" whether or not it fits, which of course conditions the approaches used to counter it. I wonder how appropriate that would be to a situation where "terrorism" springs from long-running local sectarian conflict deriving primarily or entirely from local issues.

Possibly because I also live in a country where Americans have interpreted long running local sectarian conflict through the distorted lens of their views on international terrorism, I share KingJaJa's concerns about the prospects for US involvement. I hope we stay out of it.

Hey Dayuhan,
I certainly didn't want my post to sound as if this training was going to cure Nigeria's problems with Boko Haram, and, fully agree with you and Jaja having spent over a decade in Sub-Sahara. On the other hand, some basic form of training and assistance doesn't have to translate into a bad thing assuming (ahem) those trained don't turn that training onto the population and lead to an even more corrupt govt and system. Our training of late no longer uses the 1980s cookie cutter and shows more hope at understanding what affects cultural differences have. I may be a little too optimistic though :)




The problem with Sub-Saharan Africa and the Muslim World is not "hatred of the US system of Government" or "Terrorism" but fifty years of bad governance, fifty years of unemployment and underinvestment in education and infrastructure. Africom cannot and will not solve these deep underlying problems.

For the first time in Africa, we have a generation that disrespects elders and authority figures (for the right reasons - our elders are liars and embezzlers of public funds). There is also massive disrespect of the instruments of authority (the Nigerian Security forces are even less liked than Boko Haram in MANY parts of Nigeria).

Hei Jaja,
Great posts and welcome aboard !
It's a shame that so many of us realize what AFRICOM and USAID can't see staring them in the face. Adding a western military element to Nigeria will be a disaster and I agree with you, it is not our fight. I do however see ways that training and assistance can be beneficial. There are many programs that EUCOM provides that have no law enforcement or military twist. I spend a lot of time at schools, academies and hospitals and feel my contributions over the last 15 years have made a difference. Cultural differences are a hurdle for many here and forcing it down their throats won't work as it won't in Africa.

Regards, Stan

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 08:37 AM
Hypothetically, if an enlightened Nigerian Government embarked on a massive, sustained investment of oil income in industry and agriculture in poverty-stricken areas... would that make a difference in your opinion, or is it already too late? I realize that this scenario is both hypothetical and improbable.

Nigeria is a contraption that depends on compromises by each of the six geopolitical zones and the thirty six states to maintain a semblance of stability. So Nigeria is not designed for economic growth but to (a) balance the competing demands of mutually antagonistic ethnic groups and (b) share the proceeds from Oil Wealth.

For the ruling elite, this is the most important thing, job creation and economic growth are secondary.

Consequently, unqualified people occupy key positions in the Civil Service simply because they come from a particular zone / state and they need to fill in the numbers. The federal cabinet is bloated, there are thirty six states in Nigeria and the constitution mandates that a cabinet-level minister most come from each state. So the federal cabinet normally consists of at least forty ministers.

These people are very expensive to maintain.

Nigerian parliamentarians are among the best paid in the World (about $1 million per annum in a country where the vast majority live on less than $2 a day). In addition, Nigeria loses about $3 billion per year to corruption.

This is why the federal budget barely covers recurrent expenditure and Government lacks the capacity to deliver public goods. (Electricity generation is a paltry 4,000MW on a good day, Healthcare expenditure per capita is a mere $10).

The management of the amnesty program for Niger Delta militants shows that the Nigerian government lacks the basic competence to distribute a fixed sum (about $400 per month) to a relatively small number of people in a timely manner. So job creation is certainly out of the question.

PS: Most of the targets of the last Boko Haram episode were Christians. This is a picture of one of the victims, so you'll (a) attach a face to the news story and (b) appreciate the level of tension between the Christian and Muslim community.

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/376444_244669525591177_100484630009668_721178_2020 09005_n.jpg

The was the younger sister of a Nollywood actress.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 08:49 AM
Great posts and welcome aboard !
It's a shame that so many of us realize what AFRICOM and USAID can't see staring them in the face. Adding a western military element to Nigeria will be a disaster and I agree with you, it is not our fight. I do however see ways that training and assistance can be beneficial. There are many programs that EUCOM provides that have no law enforcement or military twist. I spend a lot of time at schools, academies and hospitals and feel my contributions over the last 15 years have made a difference. Cultural differences are a hurdle for many here and forcing it down their throats won't work as it won't in Africa.

Thanks.

The most important things Africa needs are (a) renegotiation of the basis for nationhood - i.e. is a confederation of semi autonomous regions preferable to a winner takes all democracy and (b) an infusion of investment and job creation.

If (a) and (b) don't happen peacefully, they'll happen violently and Al Qaeda has a lot of raw materials to work with where I live. Africans are much better informed than they were ten years ago (there are already 300 million cell phones in Africa). So the dynamics have changed.

We'll appreciate Western diplomats who interact as much with the African people as they do with the power brokers. We'll also appreciate some bold new thinking on Africa - since almost everything that was tried in the past has failed, isn't it time to try something bold and new?

Dayuhan
11-15-2011, 09:24 AM
On the other hand, some basic form of training and assistance doesn't have to translate into a bad thing assuming (ahem) those trained don't turn that training onto the population and lead to an even more corrupt govt and system. Our training of late no longer uses the 1980s cookie cutter and shows more hope at understanding what affects cultural differences have. I may be a little too optimistic though :)

I didn't mean to suggest that it would be a bad thing. I was wondering - literally wondering, in the sense of I don't know and I wonder what others think - about the extent to which counterterrorism training specifically is affected by prevailing American assumptions about AQ, and the extent to which it would apply to a situation rooted in local sectarian conflict.


It's a shame that so many of us realize what AFRICOM and USAID can't see staring them in the face.

Do they really not see it, or are they stuck with faraway masters who don't listen to them and insist that they Do Something, or at least provide some option for doing something?


The most important things Africa needs are (a) renegotiation of the basis for nationhood - i.e. is a confederation of semi autonomous regions preferable to a winner takes all democracy and (b) an infusion of investment and job creation.

That seems reasonable, but do you see a way that these can be provided or advanced effectively by any outside power? The idea of Americans or Europeans or Chinese trying to renegotiate the basis for African nationhood (or even to facilitate that renegotiation) seems very dangerous to me, especially given the numerous vested interests involved. Investment also is a two-edged sword, as outside investors find themselves with an incentive to support a status quo that is often insupportable. My gut feeling is that these initiatives need to be local to the greatest possible extent... but that may not be practical in many cases either. Not easy.

I realize that the Boko Haram attacks have been largely aimed at Christians, but is that representative of a pattern or does the history of sectarian conflict involve attacks and violence in both directions? I ask because sectarian conflict in the Philippines and Indonesia, the areas I've been closest to, is often presented to Americans purely as Muslim aggression against Christians, while the historical reality is a good deal more complicated. I'm wondering if this is an analogous situation.

M-A Lagrange
11-15-2011, 02:13 PM
The most important things Africa needs are (a) renegotiation of the basis for nationhood - i.e. is a confederation of semi autonomous regions preferable to a winner takes all democracy and (b) an infusion of investment and job creation.
This is reasonnable but not working. In most of cases, my experience unfortunately tels me that the "semi autonomous" will act as autonomous and will never accept any central power. But that can be discussed and argued.

About employment and jobs... If you manage to take nepotism out of Africa than you are good, reall good! ;)
It's kind of the ciment of politics in that continent. :rolleyes:

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 02:37 PM
That seems reasonable, but do you see a way that these can be provided or advanced effectively by any outside power? The idea of Americans or Europeans or Chinese trying to renegotiate the basis for African nationhood (or even to facilitate that renegotiation) seems very dangerous to me, especially given the numerous vested interests involved. Investment also is a two-edged sword, as outside investors find themselves with an incentive to support a status quo that is often insupportable. My gut feeling is that these initiatives need to be local to the greatest possible extent... but that may not be practical in many cases either. Not easy.

This has been done before - South Sudan.

Congo DRC, Ivory Coast and Nigeria have been in a state of heightened tension for at least a decade. These nations pass from election-cycle to election-cycle without a clear resolution to the agitations between rival ethnic / religious groupings. It will be clear to all in the next few decades that the costs of retaining the status quo far exceed the costs of (a) re-negotiating the basis of statehood or (b) re-drawing borders and creating new states.

This will require a new type of Western/Chinese diplomat, but necessity is the mother of invention.


I realize that the Boko Haram attacks have been largely aimed at Christians, but is that representative of a pattern or does the history of sectarian conflict involve attacks and violence in both directions? I ask because sectarian conflict in the Philippines and Indonesia, the areas I've been closest to, is often presented to Americans purely as Muslim aggression against Christians, while the historical reality is a good deal more complicated. I'm wondering if this is an analogous situation.

Muslim / Christian attacks are common, with both sides sharing blame. However, Muslims take most of the blame because they are usually the initiators of violence and Christian violence is normally in retaliation to attacks by Muslims.

Christians are seen as representatives of the West. When the West invaded Afghanistan, Christians were attacked and during the Danish cartoon crisis, Christians were are attacked and killed. In retaliation Christians killed Muslims.

Boko Haram is slightly different. They are not your usual run of the mill anti-Christian organisation. They are terrorists who see Government institutions, fellow Muslims and Security agents as fair game (a bit like Al Qaeda in Iraq). They also attack Christians (like Al Qaeda in Iraq). Unfortunately a not so insignificant population of Muslims in Northern Nigeria sympathize with their aims and their methods.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 02:55 PM
This is reasonnable but not working. In most of cases, my experience unfortunately tels me that the "semi autonomous" will act as autonomous and will never accept any central power. But that can be discussed and argued.


Before the Civil War, Nigeria consisted of semi-autonomous regions. It worked pretty well then, and could work well in future. That is the only way to accommodate both Sharia and Evangelical Christianity within the same borders. The current system - an ostensibly "secular federal state" in which both Sharia and Evangelical Christians coexist, is bound to collapse under the weight of its contradictions.

If the "semi-autonomous" regions turn "autonomous", is that a bad thing? Why do we continue to maintain the fiction that Congo DRC is a single state, governed (or governable) from Kinshasa? Isn't Katanga province drifting towards autonomy (it even has more in common with Zambia than the rest of Congo DRC)? Why pretend that the Ivory Coast is still one country? Why insist that Cabinda is still part of Angola?

If these problems are not solved by pain-staking diplomacy, they will be solved through the deaths of millions. 2.5 million died in the Sudan before South Sudan was let go. 5 million or so have died in the Congo, yet the World doesn't get the message. How many millions dead in Nigeria and Ivory Coast will the World tolerate before it gets the message?


About employment and jobs... If you manage to take nepotism out of Africa than you are good, reall good!
It's kind of the ciment of politics in that continent.

Nepotism is an issue only when Government is the sole employer. For many Western firms like Coca-Cola, KFC etc, the major barrier to doing business is not nepotism, but the lack of infrastructure. The Chinese are tackling the lack of infrastructure head on in progressive nations like Kenya and Rwanda.

Stan
11-15-2011, 03:16 PM
I didn't mean to suggest that it would be a bad thing. I was wondering - literally wondering, in the sense of I don't know and I wonder what others think - about the extent to which counterterrorism training specifically is affected by prevailing American assumptions about AQ, and the extent to which it would apply to a situation rooted in local sectarian conflict.


I think we are ever so slowly getting away from the GWOT and everything AQ where it applies. According to AFRICOM (http://www.africom.mil/tsctp.asp)


Emphasis is on preserving the traditional tolerance and moderation displayed in most African Muslim communities and countering the development of extremism, particularly in youth and rural populations;


Do they really not see it, or are they stuck with faraway masters who don't listen to them and insist that they Do Something, or at least provide some option for doing something?

Hmmm, there are instances where the people on the ground have a good grasp on things but yet, no one listens. Yes, sometimes events just don't fit the country team mold (or as JMA would put it - no balls). Real easy to say, much more difficult to cut against the grain when the leadership are paying your salary. What we found useful in DRC (then Zaire) were site surveys and command visits. Get the folks into the woods and show them the real scenario and not some souvenir shopping trip followed by canapés at the Ambassador's. All those niceties loose their luster when being held at gunpoint crossing the borders :D




The most important things Africa needs are (a) renegotiation of the basis for nationhood - i.e. is a confederation of semi autonomous regions preferable to a winner takes all democracy and (b) an infusion of investment and job creation.

I like the concept but Zaire proved to us that the hierarchy was having nothing to do with democracy and dealing with over 400 tribes often meant we would never win, yet alone hold free and fair elections.


This is reasonable but not working. In most of cases, my experience unfortunately tells me that the "semi autonomous" will act as autonomous and will never accept any central power. But that can be discussed and argued.

About employment and jobs... If you manage to take nepotism out of Africa than you are good, reall good! ;)
It's kind of the cement of politics in that continent. :rolleyes:

Hey MA,
cela fait longtemps que nous ne nous sommes vus !
This is your favorite subject and wondered what had become of you ;)
We discussed this before on the DRC thread. We are fooled into believing that even meritocracy would have a chance. But nepotism alone is not the hurdle... Kleptocracy at every government level however is. How then to finance and create jobs not dependent on the host nation's capital. Would they even allow such a maneuver ?


We'll appreciate Western diplomats who interact as much with the African people as they do with the power brokers. We'll also appreciate some bold new thinking on Africa - since almost everything that was tried in the past has failed, isn't it time to try something bold and new?

Jaja,
Agreed. Transition may only take place at the top, but the vast majority of the problem is with the people.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 03:31 PM
Stan,

Unlike Europe and East Asia, Africa does not see itself as being indebted to the American military (for e.g. we were not liberated from the Germans by the US Army). So we have a natural revulsion towards the presence of the US Army (in any shape or form on African soil).

In other words, Africom has already been compromised by a perception deficit. (And Rwanda and Somalia doesn't help matters).

True, there might be 400 hundred tribes in Zaire, but some tribes are more ethnically and linguistically related to others. Many of these "tribes" are more like sub-groups speaking different dialects than separate entities.

I don't think you guys took the time to understand that. If you had a native Lingala (or Swahili) speak among you, you might have grasped that fact.

For example, in Nigeria, the Bini, the Yoruba, the Itsekiri, the Igbirra and the Ishan have close ethnic and linguistic ties.

Stan
11-15-2011, 04:02 PM
Stan,

Unlike Europe and East Asia, Africa does not see itself as being indebted to the American military (for e.g. we were not liberated from the Germans by the US Army). So we have a natural revulsion towards the presence of the US Army (in any shape or form on African soil).

Hey Jaja,
Actually, I am not in favor of most of the AFRICOM programs and have a long history with the number 2 from my time in both Zaire and Rwanda during the refugee crisis and genocide. I don't directly advocate US Military presence unless there is no one else with the expertise needed. I am of the opinion we are using our military for non-traditional roles such as peace keeping, and, we expect too much out of them without the benefit of cross cultural and PKO training. In my 12 years in seven African countries I never felt any revulsion whatsoever.


In other words, Africom has already been compromised by a perception deficit. (And Rwanda and Somalia doesn't help matters).

I have to disagree with you on that. AFRICOM encountered international resistance from the perception of militarized U.S. assistance with Africa. This is very typical of Africans when dealing with US Military and I have a decade of dealing with it at the local level. In fact, EUCOM had been doing that same job for decades without that perception, but suffered from a huge plate to fill.


True, there might be 400 hundred tribes in Zaire, but some tribes are more ethnically and linguistically related to others. Many of these "tribes" are more like sub-groups speaking different dialects than separate entities.

I don't think you guys took the time to understand that. If you had a native Lingala (or Swahili) speak among you, you might have grasped that fact.

I am both a French and Lingala speaker and think I could tell you a lot about Zaire and her tribes. If all 400 tribes were so ethnically connected, then why did Uncle Mo only hire from his tribe ? Why did he bother killing off just one tribe when he felt threatened ? I worked with locals in the jungle and not some govt arm in a cool building on the avenue du 30 juin.

Regards, Stan

ganulv
11-15-2011, 05:28 PM
Unlike Europe and East Asia, Africa does not see itself as being indebted to the American military (for e.g. we were not liberated from the Germans by the US Army). So we have a natural revulsion towards the presence of the US Army (in any shape or form on African soil).

In other words, Africom has already been compromised by a perception deficit.Before accompanying my better half on a five week long stay in Burkina Faso last summer (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/collections/72157624544582204/) I was doing some poking around online for news and current events and came upon a piece about a recently concluded training operation centered in Ouagadougou (http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=4406&lang=0). I encountered absolutely no mention of it during my stay there much less a revulsion. The usual caveats apply: I was a stranger in a strange land, there is good reason for folks not to talk about certain things, my French is poor and I know no Dioula nor Mòoré whatsoever. But a number of individuals did openly complain about things political and otherwise in my presence, and one of my girlfriend’s longtime friends with whom I had a number of (interpreter-aided) conversations had been inspired to join the LAT after Sankara came to power, viz., was of a nationalist bent and had some knowledge of things military.

The fellow in blue in the photo below is the head of the Burkinabé gendarmerie. On the one hand you can look at the fact that CT training involves the gendarmerie as heartening because it would seem to indicate a knowledge of the duties of that institution. On the other hand you can look at the paunch on Colonel Traoré and wonder how seriously those duties are taken at the highest levels.

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1002/4600544983_ea2e0e08e6.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/africom/4600544983/)
AFRICOM: Activities part of Flintlock 2010 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/africom/4600544983/) by USAFRICOM (http://www.flickr.com/people/africom/), on Flickr.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 05:48 PM
I have to disagree with you on that. AFRICOM encountered international resistance from the perception of militarized U.S. assistance with Africa. This is very typical of Africans when dealing with US Military and I have a decade of dealing with it at the local level. In fact, EUCOM had been doing that same job for decades without that perception, but suffered from a huge plate to fill.

These are early days. When the US military assumes a wider role in Africa (as it will - the dynamics of the Military Industrial Complex will push it there), it will suffer the same fate as the French. You are getting there pretty fast. Cooperation with the local strong man on "counter-terrorism" increases the likelihood that he will be in a position to make a demand you cannot refuse to whack whoever he labels as "subversives", "militants" or "internal security threats". The US military will VERY EASILY be drawn into the numerous inter-ethnic and inter-religious crises that characterise Sub-Saharan Africa.

We are opposed to Africom, not because we don't like pictures of US soldiers cuddling cute African babies, because we can see a little bit further down the line. I give it ten years, max.

Secondly, as trivial as it sounds, names matters. Africom is only marginally better than "Afrika Korps".

Thirdly, we are treated to the spectacle of Africom organising everything from veterinary clinics to pandemic workshops. It points to a deeply confused foreign policy establishment in Washington. We know the Peace Corps and USAID and we can smell a fish a mile away when the US military attempts to do the job of both these organisations. Africa is neither Afghanistan nor Iraq and the Peace Corps and USAID can do their jobs pretty well in most of Africa.

Fourthly, why are you needlessly militarising your Africa policy? Sometimes it is difficult to understand who speaks for the US in Africa - is it the local ambassador or Carter Ham? This is because Carter Ham addresses the same topics as the local ambassador (counter-terrorism, investment, trade, energy, education, polio eradication, aids prevention etc). He is also better funded, treated with more respect by congress and reports to a different boss (Secretary of Defense).

You had/have great tools at your disposal (USAID, Peace Corps, the defunct USIS), but you seem to be deliberately de-funding them or emasculating them in favour of the military. This is not the America I used to know.

Fifthly, this thing neatly coincides with the rise of Chinese influence in Africa. A more activist China could very easily set up a Chinese Africom. You won't be able to oppose it then because you'd have set up a bad precedent (the same thing applies to how you use drones - consider your drone usage policy very carefully). Quite quickly, all the best intentions of Africom could degenerate into hot wars of influence between the Chinese and Americans in Africa.

It might not happen today, but I can see it happening in ten years time.

Finally, if the advent of Africom was balanced with a push for diplomacy, cultural understanding, trade and investment, it would be more palatable. No US Commerce secretary has attended the AGOA summit in ten years and there is something slightly disturbing (to those of us that admire the US) to see the US expend diplomatic energy trying to site bases on African soil while the Chinese are practically being begged to site free trade zones on Africa (they are building a 16,500 hectare free trade zone in Lagos).


I am both a French and Lingala speaker and think I could tell you a lot about Zaire and her tribes. If all 400 tribes were so ethnically connected, then why did Uncle Mo only hire from his tribe ? Why did he bother killing off just one tribe when he felt threatened ? I worked with locals in the jungle and not some govt arm in a cool building on the avenue du 30 juin.

Uncle Mo was a megalomaniac and a kleptocrat who destroyed Zaire. He is a bad example. In more "moderate collegiate" regimes like Nigeria under military rule, the power base is more diffuse (similar tribes - Northern and Muslim tend to dominate).

Consider Southern Sudan - Southern Sudan is incredibly diverse, yet is different in many respects (culture, religion) from the North. Southern Sudan will not be a Switzerland in the near term, but the relationship between the rulers and the governed is bound to be better than what obtained under Omar Bashir. When tribes follow different religious traditions (Islam/Christianity) these differences tend to be brought to sharp relief, but when outsiders have trouble identifying the distinguishing characteristics of one tribe over another (all bloody Africans), the differences and similarities are less appreciated.

Congo DRC is a lot more similar to Sudan than you imagine. Tribes may speak different languages, but have similar cultures. If you share a similar culture and religious tradition, it is much easier to reach an accommodation than if you don't. If you look at Nigeria, the major crises have been between the Islamised tribes of the North and the Christian tribes of the Middle Belt. Inter-tribal violence in Southern Nigeria is minimal, because cultures are similar and conflict resolution mechanisms tend to be similar.

Misifus
11-15-2011, 06:05 PM
Having spent quite a bit of time in Africa, I am for leaving her alone. No AFRICOM.

Stan
11-15-2011, 06:22 PM
Hey Misifus !
Would you expand please ?

Where and when did you spend your time ? Occupational hazards ?

What's your opinion of EUCOM from 1982 to 1994 (doing nearly the exact same thing as AFRICOM, but without the fancy title and civilian number 2.).

Thanks, Stan

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 06:30 PM
Before accompanying my better half on a five week long stay in Burkina Faso last summer I was doing some poking around online for news and current events and came upon a piece about a recently concluded training operation centered in Ouagadougou. I encountered absolutely no mention of it during my stay there much less a revulsion. The usual caveats apply: I was a stranger in a strange land, there is good reason for folks not to talk about certain things, my French is poor and I know no Dioula nor Mor whatsoever. But a number of individuals did openly complain about things political and otherwise in my presence, and one of my girlfriends longtime friends with whom I had a number of (interpreter-aided) conversations had been inspired to join the LAT after Sankara came to power, viz., was of a nationalist bent and had some knowledge of things military.

The fellow in blue in the photo below is the head of the Burkinab gendarmerie. On the one hand you can look at the fact that CT training involves the gendarmerie as heartening because it would seem to indicate a knowledge of the duties of that institution. On the other hand you can look at the paunch on Colonel Traor and wonder how seriously those duties are taken at the highest levels.

Africans love training - especially those who work in Government employment. They love it when the training is free and comes with perks. African Governments love it when the US bears the cost of training and supplying their militaries because (a) it keeps them busy and less prone to mischief and (b) helps defray the defense budget, thus providing more money for embezzlement.

In the NGO community, this is called "capacity building", it normally translates to endless conferences and seminars and no tangible outcomes. This seems to be the military equivalent of that trend.

Secondly, do you know who exactly you are training? Some of the worst human rights abusers in Africa are currently being trained by the US military. The US military automatically becomes guilty by association. Have you done a proper independent audit of civilian-military relations in the host country before you put your feet there?

http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images//2010/2/9/201029133729971734_5.jpg

The picture above shows Nigerian security operatives killing "suspected Boko Haram" militants execution style in 2009. Many experts attribute the present spate of Boko Haram activity to this event. Are these your future trainees?

Who constitutes the military? Is it more of an ethnic militia than a national army?

Burkina Faso is a dictatorship - Blaise Campaore has been in power since 1987. People there are less likely to speak their minds to strangers and the news tends to be sanitised. In African nations with freer media like Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa attitudes to Africom are more vocal and more antagonistic.

These nations are important because they set the tone for public discussion in Africa.

As I said earlier, Africom is still under the radar. But when it blows in the open, expect to hear an earful.

I am sorry to say this, but I suspect Americans are naive and this is very unfortunate. The French and the British are more cynical and tend to read Africa much better than Americans, because they have more experience dealing with Africa. Both the French and the British are either keeping their activities discreet or are tend to do short sharp interventions with measurable outcomes (e.g. Sierra Leone).

The "Hearts and Minds" model does not work, it did not work in Iraq and it did not work in Afghanistan. It will also not work in Africa. "Wallets and Stomachs" will always beat "Hearts and Minds". The appeal of America is the economic opportunities it provides, not the touchy-feely stuff.

Misifus
11-15-2011, 07:14 PM
Africans love training - especially those who work in Government employment. They love it when the training is free and comes with perks.

You got that right! Especially if the training involves a trip somewhere nice. Same with the oil industry. Problem is they [the Africans] don't seem to learn anything. It's either from indolence or stupidity, but I suspect both. It's like trying to train rocks.


African Governments love it when the US bears the cost...thus providing more money for embezzlement. Yep, same with oil companies. American oil companies pay, so that more Africans can loot.


In the NGO community...Another set of looters as far as I am concerned.


I am sorry to say this, but I suspect Americans are naive and this is very unfortunate. Yes, and actually Americans are too nice.


The "Hearts and Minds" model does not work, it did not work in Iraq and it did not work in Afghanistan. It will also not work in Africa Yep, we should have focused more on a Smash & Trash approach in those countries, i.e., punitive expeditions. Cheaper and earns more respect.

ganulv
11-15-2011, 07:20 PM
Africans love training - especially those who work in Government employment. They love it when the training is free and comes with perks. African Governments love it when the US bears the cost of training and supplying their militaries because (a) it keeps them busy and less prone to mischief and (b) helps defray the defense budget, thus providing more money for embezzlement.Ergo my comment above regarding the well-fed gendarme.


Burkina Faso is a dictatorship - Blaise Campaore has been in power since 1987.Oh, come on. Just because Blaise picks the guy running against him you’re going to call the place a dictatorship? :p


People there are less likely to speak their minds to strangers and the news tends to be sanitised.As stated previously (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=128466&postcount=39) :rolleyes:, the usual caveats apply: I was a stranger in a strange land, there is good reason for folks not to talk about certain things, my French is poor and I know no Dioula nor Mòoré whatsoever. But a number of individuals did openly complain about things political and otherwise in my presence, and one of my girlfriend’s longtime friends with whom I had a number of (interpreter-aided) conversations had been inspired to join the LAT after Sankara came to power, viz., was of a nationalist bent and had some knowledge of things military.

Sanitized or not, news is only going to make so much of an impact when less than a third of the population is literate as is the case in Burkina and Mali.


In African nations with freer media like Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa attitudes to Africom are more vocal and more antagonistic.The media in the United States is the freest but most of its content has the value of teats on a boar. I don’t doubt that media outlets contribute to public opinion regarding AFRICOM, but do they contribute to informed opinion regarding AFRICOM?

Stan
11-15-2011, 07:40 PM
These are early days. When the US military assumes a wider role in Africa (as it will - the dynamics of the Military Industrial Complex will push it there), it will suffer the same fate as the French. You are getting there pretty fast. Cooperation with the local strong man on "counter-terrorism" increases the likelihood that he will be in a position to make a demand you cannot refuse to whack whoever he labels as "subversives", "militants" or "internal security threats". The US military will VERY EASILY be drawn into the numerous inter-ethnic and inter-religious crises that characterise Sub-Saharan Africa.

Given what I feel is a mistake for the military in general, I agree with you. But, as you are only too well aware of, the US Military does not dictate where and when it goes. The US Military however does not function even remotely like the French and I seriously doubt we will want much to do with colonization. The US Military will not be easily drawn into anything - they could however be sent in when politicians dictate said.


We are opposed to Africom, not because we don't like pictures of US soldiers cuddling cute African babies, because we can see a little bit further down the line. I give it ten years, max.

I never in my years did that. I don’t get off on public affairs. I’m glad you and others from you generation can in fact see 10 years down the road. It certainly beats the current situations that plague your country.


Secondly, as trivial as it sounds, names matters. Africom is only marginally better than "Afrika Korps".

Indeed a very hopeless name, patch and thoughtless creation. But then, I know some of those people and we’ve had some good jokes among the Africa Hands. We are a long ways from getting our people culturally aware. It’s a two-way street Jaja - We’re not alone !


Thirdly, we are treated to the spectacle of Africom organising everything from veterinary clinics to pandemic workshops. It points to a deeply confused foreign policy establishment in Washington. We know the Peace Corps and USAID and we can smell a fish a mile away when the US military attempts to do the job of both these organisations. Africa is neither Afghanistan nor Iraq and the Peace Corps and USAID can do their jobs pretty well in most of Africa.

I just said that in my previous post. As for the PC and AID, that’s their bailiwick and I do not support military being used in non-traditional roles. There are lessons that the PC could teach our military and there are areas where AID should be cut – what a waste of money IMO.


Fourthly, why are you needlessly militarising your Africa policy? Sometimes it is difficult to understand who speaks for the US in Africa - is it the local ambassador or Carter Ham? This is because Carter Ham addresses the same topics as the local ambassador (counter-terrorism, investment, trade, energy, education, polio eradication, aids prevention etc). He is also better funded, treated with more respect by congress and reports to a different boss (Secretary of Defense).

I’ve read and continue to read African concerns over AFRICOM (http://concernedafricascholars.org/bulletin/78/abegunrin/) and her intentions. It however should not be difficult to determine who in country represents the POTUS. The Ambassador is the POTUS’ representative. Glad to hear that both the AMB and Mr Ham address the same subjects though – wasn’t long ago we couldn’t do that without some riot act ! Mr Ham can’t be better funded than DOS; it’s the same pot of money and State drives the train. Sounds like the confusion is on your end.


You had/have great tools at your disposal (USAID, Peace Corps, the defunct USIS), but you seem to be deliberately de-funding them or emasculating them in favour of the military. This is not the America I used to know.

I’m no finance wizard but I doubt that AID and PC programs were liquidated to support military programs in Africa. Better to ask AID or the PC why they left. USIS has a new name, they are not defunct. A little research and you’ll turn up those fellas just fine.


Fifthly, this thing neatly coincides with the rise of Chinese influence in Africa. A more activist China could very easily set up a Chinese Africom. You won't be able to oppose it then because you'd have set up a bad precedent (the same thing applies to how you use drones - consider your drone usage policy very carefully). Quite quickly, all the best intentions of Africom could degenerate into hot wars of influence between the Chinese and Americans in Africa.

We’ve gone way off the deep end here but I’ll entertain your temper a tad longer. I could give a rat’s Alpha what the Chinese do and I have no control over drone usage; They are kind of cool toys though. Please check out our extensive threads on China in Africa and direct your thoughts there as time permits you.


It might not happen today, but I can see it happening in ten years time.

What’s with the ten year thing anyway ? Your projected life expectancy according to UNICEF is 48 years. I hope you not already 39 because I’d really like to know what you envision happening 10 from now.


Finally, if the advent of Africom was balanced with a push for diplomacy, cultural understanding, trade and investment, it would be more palatable. No US Commerce secretary has attended the AGOA summit in ten years and there is something slightly disturbing (to those of us that admire the US) to see the US expend diplomatic energy trying to site bases on African soil while the Chinese are practically being begged to site free trade zones on Africa (they are building a 16,500 hectare free trade zone in Lagos).

Fair question that I cannot answer - wrong department. I do have this link (http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2011/11/15/usas-africa-trade-policy-needs-a-revamp/) however with the SECSTATE addressing your concerns and the details regarding AGOA, etc. Sounds complicated however :eek:


Uncle Mo was a megalomaniac and a kleptocrat who destroyed Zaire. He is a bad example. In more "moderate collegiate" regimes like Nigeria under military rule, the power base is more diffuse (similar tribes - Northern and Muslim tend to dominate).

Consider Southern Sudan - Southern Sudan is incredibly diverse, yet is different in many respects (culture, religion) from the North. Southern Sudan will not be a Switzerland in the near term, but the relationship between the rulers and the governed is bound to be better than what obtained under Omar Bashir. When tribes follow different religious traditions (Islam/Christianity) these differences tend to be brought to sharp relief, but when outsiders have trouble identifying the distinguishing characteristics of one tribe over another (all bloody Africans), the differences and similarities are less appreciated.

Congo DRC is a lot more similar to Sudan than you imagine. Tribes may speak different languages, but have similar cultures. If you share a similar culture and religious tradition, it is much easier to reach an accommodation than if you don't. If you look at Nigeria, the major crises have been between the Islamised tribes of the North and the Christian tribes of the Middle Belt. Inter-tribal violence in Southern Nigeria is minimal, because cultures are similar and conflict resolution mechanisms tend to be similar.

Until you discovered I actually spent a great deal of time in Sub-Sahara and speak the local lingo you were fine with telling me how we failed. To dump all this on the US Military now is Bravo Sierra and requires no answer. Thank ganulv for my new abilities at remaining diplomatic (I wasn't before and you may actually break me of my current and pathetic habits).

Stan
11-15-2011, 07:55 PM
Africans love training - especially those who work in Government employment. They love it when the training is free and comes with perks. African Governments love it when the US bears the cost of training and supplying their militaries because (a) it keeps them busy and less prone to mischief and (b) helps defray the defense budget, thus providing more money for embezzlement.

Precisely why I have been against dumping money into a hole. There are however great examples of African doctors and pilots that sadly left for greener pastures. A significant problem all over the world when talent leaves home forever. There needs to be binding contracts that force those back for 4 years in their own country. This is not a free ride and the politics that back these programs were intended to pay the system back. A concept that Africans generally disregard.


In the NGO community, this is called "capacity building", it normally translates to endless conferences and seminars and no tangible outcomes. This seems to be the military equivalent of that trend.

Again, you're dead on the mark. However, some countries evolve and end up being a provider of security and helping out their neighbors. That's the purpose of the program.


Secondly, do you know who exactly you are training? Some of the worst human rights abusers in Africa are currently being trained by the US military. The US military automatically becomes guilty by association. Have you done a proper independent audit of civilian-military relations in the host country before you put your feet there?

The vetting process begins in country and without assistance from the host government, the process and intent are a waste of time. Good point !


The picture above shows Nigerian security operatives killing "suspected Boko Haram" militants execution style in 2009. Many experts attribute the present spate of Boko Haram activity to this event. Are these your future trainees?

You know how many executions I witnessed in 12 years ? I was literally invited as a guest along with other military. Your point is what ? With all those cell phones and decades later I expected very little would change and you insisted the dynamics have. Seems not. Are you trying to say the US Military teach executions ?


I am sorry to say this, but I suspect Americans are naive and this is very unfortunate. The French and the British are more cynical and tend to read Africa much better than Americans, because they have more experience dealing with Africa. Both the French and the British are either keeping their activities discreet or are tend to do short sharp interventions with measurable outcomes (e.g. Sierra Leone).

The "Hearts and Minds" model does not work, it did not work in Iraq and it did not work in Afghanistan. It will also not work in Africa. "Wallets and Stomachs" will always beat "Hearts and Minds". The appeal of America is the economic opportunities it provides, not the touchy-feely stuff.

Looking for sympathy ? I'd prefer the money went into feeding our own and taking care of our national debt. Barking up the wrong tree Jaja.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 08:03 PM
The media in the United States is the freest but most of its content has the value of teats on a boar. I don’t doubt that media outlets contribute to public opinion regarding AFRICOM, but do they contribute to informed opinion regarding AFRICOM?

That's not the point, perception is reality. All the "Als" - Al Qaeda, Al Jazeera and Al Sharpton realise that. That this simple fact is lost on the USG is tragic and difficult to understand.

A textbook case of "how not to do it" was the clumsy announcement of Africom's formation in 2008 and the equally more clumsy search for basing rights in Africa. These two events created a buzz in the local media and generated a lot of negative publicity. Today, the Africom brand is toxic.

Libya didn't help matter either (the reasoning behind this in Sub-Saharan Africa is complex, I don't want to get into that now).

Secondly, Africa in 2011 is slightly different from Africa in 1980 or Africa in the nineties. The USG still behaves as if nothing has changed in Africa since then. Africa is better connected and more democratic and the ability of the small but growing middle class to shape public opinion is rising.

Let me tell you how it goes. You send a US military civil affairs team to my village. My cousin meets you and is happy to collect freebies from you. When you leave, he calls me on his cellphone and tells me that some white men in military uniform came to visit him. I explain to him who you are (i.e. my understanding of Africom), but I tell him not to disclose anything I said to you but to watch you carefully.

These kind of transactions tend to happen more frequently than you imagine. So it is important to understand / appreciate the links between even the most remote rural villages and the urban centers.

Thirdly, you are Westerners. We've had 500 hundred years of a shared bloody history. We will never fully trust you (sad truth). African leaders instinctively retreat to "anti-imperialism" the same way Arab leaders retreat to "anti-semitism" when the going gets tough. In the Muslim parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, you have two counts against you (you support Israel and the residual animosity from the slave trade / colonialism).

This is why the USG's misreading of the complex factors that shape public opinion here and its failure to sell its Africa policy to the African public is baffling. There are so many crazy stories flying up and down about America's intentions in SS Africa. If they are not countered, they could do real damage.

It is the job of the US State Department and Africom to contribute to informed opinion on Africom. If you cannot "encourage" prominent columnists / bloggers to write favourable stories, then you shouldn't be in the business of public diplomacy.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 08:22 PM
You know how many executions I witnessed in 12 years ? I was literally invited as a guest along with other military. Your point is what ? With all those cell phones and decades later I expected very little would change and you insisted the dynamics have. Seems not. Are you trying to say the US Military teach executions ?

I've witnessed a fair amount of executions and "necklacing" in my short life, but it doesn't make it right. These people were rounded up at random and shot in the back without due process. I have seen the video of the execution and it is horrifying.

I never said that the US military should teach executions.

Anyway, I think I've spent enough time on this site. Cheers.

Misifus
11-15-2011, 08:25 PM
...Let me tell you how it goes. You send a US military civil affairs team to my village. My cousin meets you and is happy to collect freebies from you. When you leave, he calls me on his cellphone and tells me that some white men in military uniform came to visit him. I explain to him who you are (i.e. my understanding of Africom), but I tell him not to disclose anything I said to you but to watch you carefully.

These kind of transactions tend to happen more frequently than you imagine... You are so correct. I've been telling people for years that's what it's really like. They laugh at me.

The problem with the USG is that they do not believe in the duplicity of the very people they are trying to help. Africans have been screwing each other over for centuries, and there does not seem to be any tendency for that to stop. Personally, I'm happy to buy oils and minerals from y'all and from whoever is in charge at the time, but as for making African culture progress into modernity, y'all can do that without our help, either peacefully or with the continued internal strife that y'all seem to enjoy so much.

Stan
11-15-2011, 08:33 PM
A textbook case of "how not to do it" was the clumsy announcement of Africom's formation in 2008 and the equally more clumsy search for basing rights in Africa. These two events created a buzz in the local media and generated a lot of negative publicity. Today, the Africom brand is toxic.

Funny how we each perceive this situation so differently. Care to cover how the Africans were more concerned over how much the USG wanted to pay for basing rights?


Libya didn't help matter either (the reasoning behind this in Sub-Saharan Africa is complex, I don't want to get into that now).

Is Libya now part of Sub Sahara ? One of the overall reasons the US took back seat and forced the "knowledgeable" Europeans into the fray. Ironic how it turned out.


Let me tell you how it goes. You send a US military civil affairs team to my village. My cousin meets you and is happy to collect freebies from you. When you leave, he calls me on his cellphone and tells me that some white men in military uniform came to visit him. I explain to him who you are (i.e. my understanding of Africom), but I tell him not to disclose anything I said to you but to watch you carefully.

These kind of transactions tend to happen more frequently than you imagine. So it is important to understand / appreciate the links between even the most remote rural villages and the urban centers.

I doubt ganulv has been involved in CA or PSYOPS in Africa, but I'm certain that your rendition is hardly palatable. CA ops rarely just wander out into some village without the express permission of both the Embassy and host government's approval, and more unlikely that they just turn up handing out gifts. Trust me; been there, done that, and, still am doing said.



Thirdly, you are Westerners. We've had 500 hundred years of a shared bloody history. We will never fully trust you (sad truth). African leaders instinctively retreat to "anti-imperialism" the same way Arab leaders retreat to "anti-semitism" when the going gets tough. In the Muslim parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, you have two counts against you (you support Israel and the residual animosity from the slave trade / colonialism).

This is why the USG's misreading of the complex factors that shape public opinion here and its failure to sell its Africa policy to the African public is baffling. There are so many crazy stories flying up and down about America's intentions in SS Africa. If they are not countered, they could do real damage.

It is the job of the US State Department and Africom to contribute to informed opinion on Africom. If you cannot "encourage" prominent columnists / bloggers to write favourable stories, then you shouldn't be in the business of public diplomacy.

Quite an agenda for one evening !

Stan
11-15-2011, 08:39 PM
I've witnessed a fair amount of executions and "necklacing" in my short life, but it doesn't make it right. These people were rounded up at random and shot in the back without due process. I have seen the video of the execution and it is horrifying.

I never said that the US military should teach executions.

Anyway, I think I've spent enough time on this site. Cheers.

Have a safe trip !

omarali50
11-15-2011, 08:54 PM
I think some of the tone while talking to a middle class African is unfortunate and unnecessarily patronizing. But whatever, I just wanted to jump in with a very tangential observation but one that bugs me whenever I see it: Stan said "life expectancy is 48, I hope you are not 39". I know it was mostly a joke, but versions of this are heard all the time and can be a sign that people are misled about what these statistics mean. Stan may know and may just be joking, but I will jump in anyway with a lecture:
Life expectancy AT BIRTH is the average any baby in a given population is expected to live. If 10% of babies die before age 1 (very common in some places even today) and 25% die by age 5, those guys all get counted and the average goes down...a lot. In a population with life expectancy 48, 48 is the average when everyone is counted at birth..including all the babies that died at age 1. It is NOT the typical age at which an adult may expect to shuffle off this mortal coil.
If someone happens to be 39, he or she has already passed the big cull in early childhood and made it to adult life. His or her life expectancy AT THAT POINT is not 48. For a well fed urban middle class person, its probably in the 60s. For someone with long lived parents, its even higher.
People sometimes say about a few centuries ago: "in those days, the average person was dead by age 30". NOT TRUE. The average adult lived longer than that even in underdeveloped countries. That's why nobody found it remarkable that Mohammed died at 63 in an Arab population where average life expectancy at birth was maybe 33. Thats why its the "biblical three score years and ten" and not the "biblical 2 score years", which is what life expectancy probably was in Judea and Samarea in those days.
Very high rates of violence, disease and malnutrition may bring the usual adult life span down a lot in some hunter-gatherer societies but the typical adult in the middle ages or in Roman Palestine or in modern (very underdeveloped) Africa still does not conk off at 40 or even 48. The average at birth is 40 or 48 or whatever.
I know its completely off topic, but there it is.

Misifus
11-15-2011, 09:05 PM
The problem with MAAG type programs and political assistance programs is that the participants only deal with others of their own type in a given host nation. Hence military guys from the US deal with military guys from the target nation, politicans deal with politicians, etc. There is much that is not revealed between these parties, so KingJaja is correct in that respect. In other words, the host nation counterpart is often engaged in a masquerade. As an example...

...I have gone into countries with a US passport, and I will hear how great Americans are. I can go into the same country with a non-US, 3rd World passport and I will still hear how great Americans are, but as soon as the Americans leave the room, those same people will comment on how they dislike Americans. See what I mean? I've seen this too many times now to consider it coincidence.

With regards to industry, it provides better insight into the host nation culture, but not much better. Those in an industry deal with the counterparts of their industry, but they also deal with the local people since many are embedded with the true economy of the host nation. Hence they get a better perspective on what the true pulse is going on within a given host country, then say what some diplomat or MAAG type would get, or CIA idiot. The truth of the matter is that international businessmen/workers make better "Global Scouts" than those who come from some sort of officialdom like DOS, DOD, etc., who actually trained to be such.

So what KingJaja says about sending the CA guy to his village is true. I've lived it, in and out of uniform ;)

Misifus
11-15-2011, 09:16 PM
...Stan said "life expectancy is 48, I hope you are not 39". I know it was mostly a joke, but versions of this are heard all the time and can be a sign that people are misled about what these statistics mean...

Probably was a joke, but have you embedded yourself down there for any period of time? They die young down there. Here's an example.

I'm in Angola, I went away for a few weeks. When I get back...

Q. "Where's Joao?"
A. "He died."
Q. "What?!"
A. "He died of appendicitis."
Q. "Huh?"
A. "He goes home to his village on his days off. No doctors over there."

Joao was in his thirties. I have countless stories like this.

Stan
11-15-2011, 09:19 PM
Stan may know and may just be joking, but I will jump in anyway with a lecture:

Thanks Omarli. It was just a joke of sorts given the context.

Just for the record, those were not my words nor calculations and yes, the link from UNICEF does not take into account all the variables that you carefully listed.

Steve Blair
11-15-2011, 10:12 PM
Warning shot, folks. Keep it civil and go after issues, not individuals. Thanks.

Misifus
11-15-2011, 10:14 PM
Warning shot, folks. Keep it civil and go after issues, not individuals. Thanks.

Thanks.

KingJaja
11-15-2011, 10:47 PM
Yes, industry has always been ahead of the military and has the cash to back that up and train on. Better insight ? How's that ? My 12 years in Sub-Sahara dealt only with low paying locals. Not embedded but certainly the real economy that you speak of. I know that most embassy staff are content with staying at the embassy and going home, but that's not everyone. As far as officialdom training goes, that would depend on your position and ability to learn a foreign language. DOS and DOD don't spend time on weak students. So, I assume your global scout status means you speak at least two languages and to the level you could never be ID'd as an American (for starters). I also assume you routinely hang out where most white Westerners fear to go and get along with the locals as if you live next door. Those are my credentials from Africa and Estonia, and, I assume yours.

Stan,

I need to come in here.

You are the exception, not the rule. I met a few of your type whilst growing up. You have an ear to the ground and have a good appreciation of what is going on.

However, your experience does not apply to the vast majority of Americans in Africa.

I still stand by my previous comment. The visit of white men (especially soldiers) to African villages is not a common event and will attract a combination of excitement and suspicion. Africans tend to fear or despise soldiers (for good reason) and the fact that you are (a) foreign and (b) seemly good-intentioned does not entirely negate that feeling.

After your visit, the villagers will contact trusted and knowledgeable relatives to make sense of the day's events. These people usually reside in cities and whatever understanding they have of the wider US policy in Africa normally carries the day.

The visit will also be discussed during the town/village meetings, and processed by the local ethnic champion/"big man". You won't be privy to either of these events.

This is Africa, speaking the local language opens the door, but it does not give you the full picture of what is going on behind the scenes. I speak my local language fluently, but I won't have a hang of what is going on unless I attend frequent village / ethnic meetings that are usually closed to outsiders.

(This is why I wonder why you don't use your African diaspora more, they have a better understanding of Africa than most non-"African" Americans, attract less attention and can detect BS from local politicians at the speed of light. Anyway, I digress).

I also agree that folks in Industry have a better understanding than the military. For example, no one understands the Niger Delta better than Oil and Gas people. They even have dedicated departments (community affairs) to deal with the Niger Delta people.

This is an area where the Chinese may have an advantage over Americans. Their economic footprint may be smaller, but their business people are more dispersed, closer to the ground, more likely to interact with the locals and more likely to speak the local language (Pidgin, Hausa, Lingala etc). If Beijing decides to use them for intelligence gathering, they'll have an extremely useful database of relevant information.



Misifus,

Now to the question of dying at 48. I won't reveal my age, but I am not yet 39. My grandmother died last week - she was 87 and my mother is still going strong at 65 and my dad is even older. I have an uncle who is above 80 and he still drives himself to work.

Angola recently emerged from a devastating civil war. Do you really expect an Angolan to have the same life expectancy as a middle class Nigerian? Or is Africa one large undifferentiated mass of well, "bloody Africans". You should know better than that.

Stan
11-15-2011, 11:31 PM
Good evening, Jaja !

It's late so excuse my brief response.

Agreed, there are few that spend sufficient time learning while in Africa. The Army has a FAO program and that has seen some tough times with personnel. I am happy to say I know all the success stories though.

One of the things you mentioned and Misifus echoed grabbed my attention. Jaja, Eucom or AFRICOM are but tools and if America and/or China are intent on your minerals those tools are part of the deal.

It's a reality check, and part of the bargain is we either play with the big boys, or, we bow out.

In closing, I still agree with you - Nigeria is best left to take care of her problems because there are few in the west that could comprehend how complex the situation is and how to fix it. Africans compromise every day as a matter of routine and the west wants a sweet deal.

Natural resources is a business with no clear parameters and the language is cash. Too simple for any government to conceive.

I'm off to bed !

Regards, Stan


Stan,

I need to come in here.

You are the exception, not the rule. I met a few of your type whilst growing up. You have an ear to the ground and have a good appreciation of what is going on.

However, your experience does not apply to the vast majority of Americans in Africa.

I still stand by my previous comment. The visit of white men (especially soldiers) to African villages is not a common event and will attract a combination of excitement and suspicion. Africans tend to fear or despise soldiers (for good reason) and the fact that you are (a) foreign and (b) seemly good-intentioned does not entirely negate that feeling.

After your visit, the villagers will contact trusted and knowledgeable relatives to make sense of the day's events. These people usually reside in cities and whatever understanding they have of the wider US policy in Africa normally carries the day.

The visit will also be discussed during the town/village meetings, and processed by the local ethnic champion/"big man". You won't be privy to either of these events.

This is Africa, speaking the local language opens the door, but it does not give you the full picture of what is going on behind the scenes. I speak my local language fluently, but I won't have a hang of what is going on unless I attend frequent village / ethnic meetings that are usually closed to outsiders.

(This is why I wonder why you don't use your African diaspora more, they have a better understanding of Africa than most non-"African" Americans, attract less attention and can detect BS from local politicians at the speed of light. Anyway, I digress).

I also agree that folks in Industry have a better understanding than the military. For example, no one understands the Niger Delta better than Oil and Gas people. They even have dedicated departments (community affairs) to deal with the Niger Delta people.

This is an area where the Chinese may have an advantage over Americans. Their economic footprint may be smaller, but their business people are more dispersed, closer to the ground, more likely to interact with the locals and more likely to speak the local language (Pidgin, Hausa, Lingala etc). If Beijing decides to use them for intelligence gathering, they'll have an extremely useful database of relevant information.



Misifus,

Now to the question of dying at 48. I won't reveal my age, but I am not yet 39. My grandmother died last week - she was 87 and my mother is still going strong at 65 and my dad is even older. I have an uncle who is above 80 and he still drives himself to work.

Angola recently emerged from a devastating civil war. Do you really expect an Angolan to have the same life expectancy as a middle class Nigerian? Or is Africa one large undifferentiated mass of well, "bloody Africans". You should know better than that.

Dayuhan
11-16-2011, 12:57 AM
Anyway, I think I've spent enough time on this site. Cheers.

I for one hope you stick around and contribute. We could use a more diverse base of perception here. Of course people will always get cranky and argue, but in the process some interesting stuff comes out.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 01:27 AM
Misfus,

Sorry for the mix up.

I doubt you'll notice one (middle class Nigeria). In my experience, most expatriates tend to hang around each other and live in very secluded locations (Victoria Island, Lekki, Ikoyi), they don't mix with the locals, so don't observe trends.

Nigeria has one of the largest middle class populations in Africa. As a proportion of the entire population, it is small, but it tends to be large in absolute numbers.

A total of 210,798 private vehicles were registered in Lagos alone in 2009 (Lagos Government Statistics). These numbers are significant, and they point to a large number of people with enough disposable income to buy a car with cash (we don't have a lot of credit options down here).

Misifus
11-16-2011, 01:31 AM
Nevertheless, you should be able to tell that unfortunately we, the US, don't often read the tea leaves correctly. Recall this thread is about Nigeria, Islam and Terrorism. And nothing you have written thus far indicates that the US is reading the tea leaves any better on that topic in Nigeria.

Wrong effort and wrong focus. As an example, the US was blind-sided by the rising influence of China in Africa even though business leaders were providing this information to TPTB, which largely ignored it. Meanwhile, guys like you and your DOS counterparts are out helping natives dig slit trenches on mainland Lagos while the Chinese secure more energy contracts in Africa.


We just hosted an amputee forum at a local hospital on the DOD dime. Sadly, there were no military there. A smiggin behind the times with acronyms and CA.

Again, If you recall this thread is about Nigeria, Islam and Terrorism. And as I said the US does not read the tea leaves on the topic at hand very well. Hence all of our intelligence foul-ups. So how does this good deed of yours help the US understand Islam & Terrorism in Nigeria.

As I stated up thread, industry will get a more accurate picture of what is going on in a host nation than what any US military mission or any political mission can ever hope to obtain.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 02:08 AM
Misfus,

Sorry for the mix up.

I doubt you'll notice one (middle class Nigeria). In my experience, most expatriates tend to hang around each other and live in very secluded locations (Victoria Island, Lekki, Ikoyi), they don't mix with the locals, so don't observe trends.

Nigeria has one of the largest middle class populations in Africa. As a proportion of the entire population, it is small, but it tends to be large in absolute numbers.

A total of 210,798 private vehicles were registered in Lagos alone in 2009 (Lagos Government Statistics). These numbers are significant, and they point to a large number of people with enough disposable income to buy a car with cash (we don't have a lot of credit options down here).

No problem on the mix-up.

Yes, I know the middle-class in Nigeria is larger than in most of the other African countries, but it is still small in relation to the total population just as you stated. Yes, I have hung out on Victoria, Ikoyi, and Lekki, but I have also been on mainland Lagos, and Port Harcourt and Warri, and the other Niger Delta places that are not as luxurious as say the Mobil House compound on Victoria or at Chevron just down the road. As you know, those of us that are independent oilfield contractors don't get the luxury of those who live the expat lifestyle with a major oil company. Nevertheless, I have not felt threatened in Nigeria or Angola.

My main points for entering this thread are:

(1) That no matter what type of DOD (US Department of Defense) or DOS (US Department of State) assistance is offered, that this assistance will not help the US in understanding the threat of Islam & Terrorism in Nigeria or even assist in the painting of a semi-accurate intelligence picture. The US continually misses the boat on harbingers. DOD and DOS are for the most part insulated organizations. It is not until some cataclysmic event and massive intelligence failure occurs that the US then wakes up.

(2) I also believe Africa can and should solve its own problems. As I a said before, I am happy to do business with African nations and whoever is in charge at the time, but I am not about to try and remake Africa into the image of the US. Only Africa can change itself. And BTW, I agree with most of your observations.

ganulv
11-16-2011, 02:10 AM
I'm not impressed. For all I know you are just a poser. Seems to me there are a lot of Google-ologists here anyways.

Lol! I don't have to let you "know" anything. You must think you are in command here or something. Are you sure you were an NCO?Ja pisaste na bola, irmão…

Misifus
11-16-2011, 02:14 AM
Ja pisaste na bola, irmo

jejeje :D

Stan
11-16-2011, 09:05 AM
Discussing the drawbacks of US Military assistance to Nigeria often requires some experience or at least background that is not so dated. Opinions are generally not part of professional training for indigenous personnel. The programs in Sub-Sahara that you casually dismiss, your bitter regard for DOS and DOD and now your poor housing make it difficult for me to see your point. Reminds me of the early 80s with personnel from Morrison-Knudsen in Zaire plagued by rebel insurgencies. The former mil-to-mil programs (known today as bilateral affairs) are designed to determine the host country needs and capabilities and find (or not find) a suitable solution.

For a good program to bear fruit we’re looking at years and not single individual accomplishments. I’m not talking about just CA (they have their part and generally don’t stay around longer than that). This is not hearts and minds mentality; it’s professional training with a clear outcome that often in Africa means a team that understands its target audience. Micro accomplishments ? Our humanitarian demining training is singularly responsible for saving thousands of children in Sub-Sahara, and, that same demining also denies the terrorist with his/her most fundamental element in IED construction. The idea behind this success is to come to the aid of one’s neighbor, and, as it has been clearly pointed out by most of us; Africans are the best choice for problem resolutions in Africa. But, they need a helping hand. The only hurdle left IMO is to demonstrate through example that the American soldier is not the boogie man and is not in Africa to protect and buy up all the natural resources.

The US Administration was well informed about the Chinese in Sub-Sahara when I was there. Whether they chose to consider a growing Chinese presence “significant intel” at the time is entirely another matter.

The point was fairly obvious even for you and your MAAGs. Not all training involves military. In fact I do see that our teams' efforts both in Africa and Europe will mitigate some of the problems facing Nigeria. Our teams and their former trainees are in fact in three African countries now. The amputee forum BTW is a basic element in humanitarian demining in Africa. So yes, we held it in Estonia to be used and further discussed with on going programs. Children that play with UXO often need awareness training, artificial limbs and a rehabilitation specialist.

Arrogant ? Naw, but damn proud of my last 27 years.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 01:39 PM
...demining also denies the terrorist with his/her most fundamental element in IED construction...I think that's a stretch. Legacy mines aren't demined by terrorists to be used in some other place. If you've got some documented proof that states otherwise, we are all ears.

JMA
11-16-2011, 02:02 PM
A total of 210,798 private vehicles were registered in Lagos alone in 2009 (Lagos Government Statistics). These numbers are significant, and they point to a large number of people with enough disposable income to buy a car with cash (we don't have a lot of credit options down here).

Normally it the government and large companies which own most of the vehicles.

By private I assume you mean non-government? In that case it is still the number of individual owners that's important as that would filter out company ownership.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 02:39 PM
Normally it the government and large companies which own most of the vehicles.

By private I assume you mean non-government? In that case it is still the number of individual owners that's important as that would filter out company ownership.

If you've ever been in a Lagos traffic jam (go slow), you'd immediately understand that most of the vehicles are privately owned.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 03:09 PM
If you've ever been in a Lagos traffic jam (go slow), you'd immediately understand that most of the vehicles are privately owned.

Lol! So true! :D Hence the popularity of the motorcycle taxis ;)

Chowing
11-16-2011, 03:15 PM
No shock at all on my part, and I don't suppose many here would be shocked.



Hypothetically, if an enlightened Nigerian Government embarked on a massive, sustained investment of oil income in industry and agriculture in poverty-stricken areas... would that make a difference in your opinion, or is it already too late? I realize that this scenario is both hypothetical and improbable.



Thank you for an honest opinion, if not one that many would like to hear. It sounds a harsh future for Nigerians: even if the states resulting from such a dismemberment were more viable and had a better future, I'd guess that the process of getting to that future is likely to be difficult and violent.

Without a doubt, on my part, this economic and social solution is the only long-term remedy. The local people are not near satisfied with their poor lot in life right now, so they are easy targets for extremists to recruit and use for evil purposes. USA military presence will only fuel an already hot situation.

Boko Haram seems to be making connections with other Jihad groups around the world. I am sure that these Jihadists would love to have a strong hold in Africa's most populous country. There are signs that Boko Haram, AQIM, and al-Shabaab are talking to each other.

Unless some real economic and social changes take place, I expect to see much more terrorist activity in Nigeria.

Chowing
11-16-2011, 03:22 PM
The US has the best military technology on offer, but has close to zero understanding of the what is going on in Nigeria. And neither do many arm-chair pundits - take their opinions with a pinch of salt. There is no point creating expectations that you can intervene decisively if you don't understand the first thing about what's going on locally. There are many factors at play, there is a complex web of ethnicity, religion, poverty, government legitimacy, corruption, violence, propaganda and malice at play here. If the US couldn't distinguish between Sunni and Shia, they sure can't distinguish between Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri.

Short story: it's our fight, leave us alone to fight it.

Right on target. USA military intervention has a track record of escalating conflict to even bloodier levels.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 03:55 PM
Without a doubt, on my part, this economic and social solution is the only long-term remedy. The local people are not near satisfied with their poor lot in life right now, so they are easy targets for extremists to recruit and use for evil purposes. USA military presence will only fuel an already hot situation.

Boko Haram seems to be making connections with other Jihad groups around the world. I am sure that these Jihadists would love to have a strong hold in Africa's most populous country. There are signs that Boko Haram, AQIM, and al-Shabaab are talking to each other.

Unless some real economic and social changes take place, I expect to see much more terrorist activity in Nigeria.

I agree a 150% with you you.

Scenes like this in the Niger Delta

http://www.the9billion.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/468x351xniger-delta-oil.jpg.pagespeed.ic.01H0sy9ZZ0.jpg

Local disparities in literacy rates like this

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/world/11/nigeria_election_toggle_maps/img/nigeria_health_624.gif

Provide fertile ground for insurgencies and terrorists. The best thing the US can do is to convince the Nigerian ruling elite (if possible), that their very survival depends on how well they improve socio-economic conditions in Nigeria.

As I said earlier, Boko Haram and Niger Delta militancy were a long time coming. I spent one year as a business consultant in North East Nigeria, and I was shocked to find out that only 25% of the employees in the factory I was assigned to could read or write! If the government wasn't interested in educating the youth, then someone else was - i.e. Islamic radicals.

I also have a problem with who the USG labels "AQ terrorists". Sometimes I get the impression that the US doesn't fully understand who it is fighting or who it thinks it is fighting. Is Boko Haram an affiliate of Al Qaeda or a local group with its own specific aims and grievances but glad to receive technical assistance on offer from from former Islamic Salvation Front operatives (or whoever).

Does Boko Haram's targeting of Western assets, have more to do with the close cooperation between the reviled Nigerian Government and the West or is it merely a continuation of a global jihad? Is Al Shabab, as much of a nationalist organisation formed in the wake of the bungled Ethiopian invasion of Somalia as it is an AQ terrorist group?

Stan
11-16-2011, 03:57 PM
I think that's a stretch. Legacy mines aren't demined by terrorists to be used in some other place. If you've got some documented proof that states otherwise, we are all ears.

We don’t call them legacy mines and the term demining is broad stroke for Explosive Remnants of War, Unexploded Ordnance, Conventional Weapons Destruction, Improvised Explosive Devises, etc. The ordnance found all over Africa typically include caches and stockpiles. That is - very safe to transport and remove the insensitive comp B. The remainder of the projectile and the pure copper obturating band are sold as scrap metal.

For someone so well versed on say Angola and Nigeria, you must not get time to read the local and national papers. These are both from this year and available in Portuguese, Kikongo, Kimbundu and good old Belgian French.


September 2011, The Ministry of Defense has said that it has excavated about 17, 519 unexploded bombs have been excavated in different parts of Nigeria, including Abia, Anambra, Benue, Cross River and Nassarawa. Dr. Bala Yakubu, an explosive expert and stockpile manager, said about 233 unexploded devices were detonated on the occasion, adding that out of the total 17,519 explosives excavated and destroyed by his team, a large chunk of them was got from core Southeast states in different nine spots in Imo, especially. He said that given enough resources, his team would finish their job within the next two years. Yakubu said that his men used devices such as detectors and locators to excavate the bombs, saying some of the bombs weighed about 120 kg. The detonation of the bombs were personally supervised by the Deputy Governor of Imo State, Chief Jude Agbaso and the Director of Air force, Ministry of Defense, Mr. Sylvanus Tapgun, said that the Federal Government was interested in excavating Explosive Remnants of War (ERW), adding that work only stopped to allow assessment of what had been done so far. Deputy Governor Agbaso regretted that over 50,000 live bombs were yet to be excavated, leading to some residents in some areas abandoning their farmlands and homes.

U.S. assistance supports Angolan civilian and military authorities in collecting and destroying excess and obsolete weapons and munitions to promote a peaceful and secure country, a prerequisite for health, education and economic development. The NGO Halo Trust has already removed more than 74,000 weapons and more than 1,100 tons of munitions, which prevents them from falling into the hands of criminals. The Ministry of Interior and the Angolan Armed Forces organize specific activities under the voluntary collection and destruction program. In 2010, the United States gave USD7.5 million for humanitarian demining and weapons destruction.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 04:09 PM
Yes, I know the middle-class in Nigeria is larger than in most of the other African countries, but it is still small in relation to the total population just as you stated. Yes, I have hung out on Victoria, Ikoyi, and Lekki, but I have also been on mainland Lagos, and Port Harcourt and Warri, and the other Niger Delta places that are not as luxurious as say the Mobil House compound on Victoria or at Chevron just down the road. As you know, those of us that are independent oilfield contractors don't get the luxury of those who live the expat lifestyle with a major oil company. Nevertheless, I have not felt threatened in Nigeria or Angola.

Just wanted to point out that there is a lot more to Nigeria than Lagos (I live here), PH (was with Total there: 2003 - 2005) and Warri (a glorified village, was there at Shell, Edjeba in 2000).

There are lot of medium sized towns in the West, East and North of Nigeria like Ibadan, Enugu, Aba, Abuja, Kaduna, Onitsha etc. Each of these towns has a sizable (by African standards) middle class.

You don't really get a sense of Nigeria unless you spend some time in the East, West and Northern parts of the country. You'll really appreciate the diversity of Nigeria when you do so. Most Western expatriates don't (Oil and Gas types barely venture outside Lagos and the Niger Delta) because they (a) aren't interested or (b) too scared to do so.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 04:25 PM
Stan,

Just want to point out that the Nigerian bombs date from the Nigerian Civil War (1967 - 70), and are mostly located in the Igbo speaking areas of Nigeria (the epicenter of the Civil War) which are neither prone to Niger Delta militancy or Islamic terrorism.

We've been doing bomb disposal since at least 1970.

Secondly, there isn't any indication in the Nigerian article that the USG is involved in this effort and I am yet to come across any evidence that suggests that our local terrorists (Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram) use this material.

If I am correct, the Niger Delta militants use the money made from illegal oil bunkering to buy their own weapons and explosives. Boko Haram gets its funding from sympathisers and robs banks, they obtain their weapons and explosives from outside Nigeria.

Now the situation may be a bit different in other African countries, but I wanted to point that out.

Stan
11-16-2011, 05:09 PM
Hei Jaja !


Stan,

Just want to point out that the Nigerian bombs date from the Nigerian Civil War (1967 - 70), and are mostly located in the Igbo speaking areas of Nigeria (the epicenter of the Civil War) which are neither prone to Niger Delta militancy or Islamic terrorism.

The location and age of the ordnance is not relevant; there is ordnance in Estonia from WWI and turns up in a criminal’s laboratory 500 kilometers away.
The ordnance we are destroying along the Rwandan border is from Angola, 1,000 miles east. There’s a ton of anecdotal evidence available on the European and American Bomb Data Centers (the whole world is on there), Law Enforcement on line, the Geneva Center, and so on. Your own police records are in there as well as some bad examples of disasters. In fact, Nigeria has one of the worst records for stockpiling and accountability.


We've been doing bomb disposal since at least 1970.

Yes I know and that training and assistance started with EUCOM (another very bad acronym from the folks in the USA).


Secondly, there isn't any indication in the Nigerian article that the USG is involved in this effort and I am yet to come across any evidence that suggests that our local terrorists (Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram) use this material.

That is but one article that I dug up to appease misifits. I cannot and will not publish compartmental info on an open forum.
Here’s an open source article covering US assistance.
(http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/avid-recovery.htm)


If I am correct, the Niger Delta militants use the money made from illegal oil bunkering to buy their own weapons and explosives. Boko Haram gets its funding from sympathisers and robs banks, they obtain their weapons and explosives from outside Nigeria.

That’s precisely my point; they don’t have to bother with Nigerian sources as there’s so much in Sub-Sahara and at discounted prices from good ol’ Zaire.
By quasi assisting where we are, we are in fact shutting down a potential explosives source for Boko Haram, et al.


Now the situation may be a bit different in other African countries, but I wanted to point that out.

It’s a valid point. Keep in mind however that the most recent attack in Maiduguri yesterday is already registered and clearly indicates the use of light infantry weapons (low explosive content and light frag.), not IEDs. Once they get their act together and learn to use the available ordnance (those 120 kg. bombs mentioned in my last post) you will feel the blast wave in Lagos.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 05:50 PM
...You don't really get a sense of Nigeria unless you spend some time in the East, West and Northern parts of the country...Most Western expatriates don't (Oil and Gas types barely venture outside Lagos and the Niger Delta) because they (a) aren't interested or (b) too scared to do so.

Unfortunately this is true, and some of it is due to travel restrictions put on expat employees by their employers. However, a lot of us do get around. Like I said upthread, I have never felt threatened in Nigeria or Angola. Much of this is a psychosis of the expats. Right now in the US there is also lot of fear of travel into Mexico, but like in the case of Africa, I think much of this is overblown by the media and other assorted pundits. I ride my motorcycle down into Mexico quite often have yet to have any type of problem.



If I am correct, the Niger Delta militants use the money made from illegal oil bunkering to buy their own weapons and explosives...

This is my understanding as well and they are fairly sophisticated. The bunkering itself was again missed intelligence, or I should say "dismissed" intelligence. For years the USG dismissed stolen oil as something that was just donefor local use in the Niger Delta, while oil companies including NNPC/NNOC were saying that the quantities were part of an international crime syndicate. Imagine then when the MT African Pride gets seajacked or disappears and then reappears with a new name. Several runs were made to the Gulf States where the stolen oil was pumped out to the global market by her Russian crew.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 05:56 PM
...the local and national papers. These are both from this year and available in Portuguese, Kikongo, Kimbundu and good old Belgian French...

Like I said upthread, there are a lot of Google-ologist here.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 06:21 PM
This is my understanding as well and they are fairly sophisticated. The bunkering itself was again missed intelligence, or I should say "dismissed" intelligence. For years the USG dismissed stolen oil as something that was just done for local use in the Niger Delta, while oil companies including NNPC/NNOC were saying that the quantities were part of an international crime syndicate. Imagine then when the MT African Pride gets seajacked or disappears and then reappears with a new name. Several runs were made to the Gulf States where the stolen oil was pumped out to the global market by her Russian crew

It gets even more complicated when the Nigerian military gets involved in this business.

Crude Oil destroyed Nigeria. Nigeria was a much better run place before the discovery of crude oil (so my dad tells me). We had better institutions and better governance then.

When our crude oil reserves are finally depleted, we'll have nothing except seventy years worth of Exxon-Valdez type spills, a wrecked Niger-Delta ecosystem and a population of 300 million.

By then, most of the people who caused these problems in the first place will be dead.

You can't blame the youth for doing what legions of Nigerian Generals and "big men" have been doing for the past fifty years. Someone tells me that the increasing sophistication in pipeline disruption activities is due to the presence of a large number of unemployed Petroleum Engineering / Petroleum Technology graduates.

Chowing
11-16-2011, 06:27 PM
I agree a 150% with you you.

Scenes like this in the Niger Delta

The photo you showed in an earlier post depicting the street executions by police in 2009 are in a youtube video. I am sure you have seen it. It was absolutely detestable, but no action against the police and that action, as you say, flamed the hatred. USA military action would do the same.

The situation in Nigeria is serious, but there is not short-term fix.

Misifus
11-16-2011, 06:41 PM
It gets even more complicated when the Nigerian military gets involved in this business.
But of course! The Nigerian navy seems to have been involved in the MT African Pride case. I remember it well.


Crude Oil destroyed Nigeria. Nigeria was a much better run place before the discovery of crude oil (so my dad tells me). We had better institutions and better governance then. You had British institutions and governance back then. By the end of the 70's that governance model had decayed. Nevertheless, it was and is Nigerians doing this to each other in terms of looting the oil patrimony. Other nations with oil have managed, though there seems to be a trend that colonial legacy countries mismanage their oil patrimony as do most countries in the developing world. Seems also to be true with other mineral patrimony like diamonds in Angola. In any case, Nigeria needs to work this out for itself.


Someone tells me that the increasing sophistication in pipeline disruption activities is due to the presence of a large number of unemployed Petroleum Engineering / Petroleum Technology graduates.That's a new one to me. I would say it is more than likely due to displaced oilfield workers, not petroleum engineers.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 08:12 PM
The photo you showed in an earlier post depicting the street executions by police in 2009 are in a youtube video. I am sure you have seen it. It was absolutely detestable, but no action against the police and that action, as you say, flamed the hatred. USA military action would do the same.

The situation in Nigeria is serious, but there is not short-term fix.

The policemen responsible for that act have actually been apprehended, but that was only after Boko Haram went on a rampage.

That is the Nigerian Police Force's usual modus operandi, once they get tired of keeping you in detention, they size you up (do you have rich or influential relatives?), if you don't they simply take you outside, shoot you and claim you are an "armed robbery suspect".

In many parts of Nigeria, the military has a similar reputation. So much innocent blood was split by the Nigerian military in the Niger Delta. I recall how they leveled an entire village (Odi), laying waste to anything alive. We weren't surprised when the Niger Delta erupted.

Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?

I can understand America's realpolitik rationale for forging close ties with the Nigerian military. The expectation is that Nigeria is likely to grow in strategic importance and the bonds formed by captains and majors from both armies will be useful in promoting American interests in the future.

But things could turn out much differently, and all those bonds could count for nothing. The most important lesson from the Arab Spring is that power still lies with the people, not the elite, not the military.

Stan
11-16-2011, 08:58 PM
Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?

Jaja,
Please at least acknowledge the fact that, similar to the Nigerian system, American soldiers do not dictate who they will train with.

I think you've done a very good job and opened our eyes to your situation.


I can understand America's realpolitik rationale for forging close ties with the Nigerian military. The expectation is that Nigeria is likely to grow in strategic importance and the bonds formed by captains and majors from both armies will be useful in promoting American interests in the future.

Nigeria is already strategically significant for many more reasons that some oil pumper's dream of getting rich. And yes, to some extent such programs were intentionally designed to do several things, but among the most important is exposure. US exposure being paramount. Comes with the territory in almost every nation visited. Take advantage of being on stage and get the message out.

I'm looking over AFRICOM's dialog box and see nothing negative. You have some great insight and detailed thoughts, but yet, I don't see your comments at AFRICOM. Why is that ?


But things could turn out much differently, and all those bonds could count for nothing. The most important lesson from the Arab Spring is that power still lies with the people, not the elite, not the military.

Indeed correct. There are countless examples where this system failed and we tried to tell the dictators to belly up or get out. That didn't work very well and I have strange memories walking around K-town then and now.

So, we get the message out and ask questions. Disappointment when we don't win immediately? Certainly, but it beats the heck out of ranting to a bunch of retired US and Foreign Military who can't change your plight.

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 09:15 PM
I'm looking over AFRICOM's dialog box and see nothing negative. You have some great insight and detailed thoughts, but yet, I don't see your comments at AFRICOM. Why is that ?

Do you mean at the AFRICOM site? Could you give me the link.

Stan
11-16-2011, 09:22 PM
Do you mean at the AFRICOM site? Could you give me the link.

Yep, and the site is... be careful what you wish for bro..

http://www.africom.mil/

EDIT: I look forward to your responses tomorrow. Be slightly diplomatic Please !

KingJaja
11-16-2011, 09:33 PM
Okay, give me time to organise my thoughts!

On a slightly tangential note, Nigeria has an urgent and serious problem with youth unemployment, so serious that the senior government officials are using alarmist language.


Nigerian youths, especially the unemployed ones, have lost confidence in government, Minister of Youth Development Bolaji Abdullahi has said.

Speaking Tuesday in Abuja at a media briefing on President Goodluck Jonathan's 100 days in office, the minister said, "the youth are angry with the government and may explode any moment from now because 41.6 per cent of them are jobless".

"Most Nigerian youths do not want to identify themselves with the country because they don't have any hope of surviving in it", he added.

The minister, who described youth unemployment in Nigeria as a ticking time bomb that could explode any time soon, maintained that the condition that made youth in the United Kingdom and some Arab countries revolt was not as bad as what Nigerian youth are going through now.

Abdullah urged government at all levels to create jobs to restore the lost confidence in the youth.

He said, "Mere giving 10,000 or 20,000 to a Nigerian youth to start a business cannot help, but imparting skill is what would do the magic. Nigerian youths don't trust the government any longer. We held a twitter conference some days ago where we met with many Nigerian youths. While some of them mentioned their plights, the reactions from a lot of them showed that they don't have confidence in government. They said what we were doing (the twitter conference) was a PR stunt".

How do we create economic opportunities for our young people? Who can help us do that?

Stan
11-16-2011, 10:58 PM
I wish I had a better answer for you herein, but my Google skills are slightly less than some seem to think.

I am told that the NEPAD (http://www.unicef.org/publications/files/NEPAD_FINAL.pdf) program from UNICEF might give you some direction.

I'd also like to think that our friend in SA has some better insight.

JMA, are you sleeping already mate ?

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 12:04 AM
I wish I had a better answer for you herein, but my Google skills are slightly less than some seem to think.

I am told that the NEPAD program from UNICEF might give you some direction.

I'd also like to think that our friend in SA has some better insight.

JMA, are you sleeping already mate ?

Google won't supply the answer to my question!:wry: My question was rhetorical.

NEPAD, MCC and AGOA are mere buzzwords, well intentioned, but of little significance. Africa has business potential, but it requires a high-level of tolerance for risk - that leaves us with the Chinese (primarily) and the Indians.

In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).

(It is logical: they are soon going to face a demographic challenge and Africa offers them a large market and potentially, a cheap source of labour).

Unfortunately, the Chinese have issues and (after the fall of the Soviet Union and the death of Osama Bin Laden), they are now enemy number 1. The truth is that there is no way the US can fulfill its long term objectives in Africa without reaching an accommodation with the Chinese.

P.S: The AFRICOM dialogue site is terrible. I went there and immediately lost my enthusiasm. Who designed that thing?

Dayuhan
11-17-2011, 01:28 AM
In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).

The number of Chinese workers in Africa is also growing rapidly, and many of them work in jobs and business that could be done by local people. I've read that in East Africa Chinese investors are buying up farmland and bringing in Chinese labor to work it, a policy that seems certain to cause trouble.

Youth unemployment is a problem across the developing world, and nobody has come up with an easy answer or a way to address youth unemployment as anything other than a part of the larger (and very complicated) problem of overall economic development. Foreign investment can play a role, but it's not the answer in itself. Skills training is not a bad thing but it won't help unless there's significant economic demand for the skills. Investment in industry and agriculture in areas where it's most needed is often impossible without prior investment in infrastructure.

Large-scale foreign investment, like what the Chinese are pursuing now in many parts of Africa, often appears attractive in the early phases, when the net transfer of money and resources is inbound. As the projects mature and the net transfer of resources starts flowing in the opposite direction (as it is clearly intended to do - the Chinese are not in this for charity) they may start to seem less appealing and less beneficial. That's the time you'd expect trouble to start. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Chinese eventually propping up unpopular governments that they've made long-term deals with, sending military equipment, advisers, and eventually stepping into the small war arena.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 01:48 AM
Chinese activity in Africa is a little bit more nuanced than the one-dimensional picture presented in Western media.

I have actually worked with the Chinese, and while they are not up to par with West, there are many Chinese companies, some good and some bad. They are not monolithic.

What I've learned is that they really want to do business here and they see Africa as a land of opportunity (not as a hardship posting like most Westerners). So they tend to be more enthusiastic and more tolerant of risk.

The behaviour of Chinese companies depends on what the host government allows. A classical example is Zambia under Michael Sata, his predecessor allowed the Chinese to get away with a lot, but he is having none of that.

As African governments begin to appreciate the relationship between youth unemployment and national security (trust me it will happen), the Chinese will have to adapt. They will adapt, not because they want to, but because they have to. For example, no Chinese firm can get away with not employing locals in the Niger Delta - since non-compliance could potentially lead to the risk of injury or even death.

Dayuhan
11-17-2011, 05:19 AM
Chinese activity in Africa is a little bit more nuanced than the one-dimensional picture presented in Western media.

Everything is more nuanced than what's portrayed in the Western media... though the Asian media (with which I spend a fair bit of time) are no better, and I suppose African media have their own flaws.


I have actually worked with the Chinese, and while they are not up to par with West, there are many Chinese companies, some good and some bad. They are not monolithic.

Nobody is monolithic, not even Americans. It's often the case, though, that bad stories travel farther and faster and are repeated and exaggerated more than good ones.


What I've learned is that they really want to do business here and they see Africa as a land of opportunity (not as a hardship posting like most Westerners). So they tend to be more enthusiastic and more tolerant of risk.

The behaviour of Chinese companies depends on what the host government allows. A classical example is Zambia under Michael Sata, his predecessor allowed the Chinese to get away with a lot, but he is having none of that.

Aren't the companies just part of the Chinese presence? My personal observation is brief and limited to a few points in the east, but from that and a fair number of accounts (many not from the western media) I get the impression that there's an enormous street-level presence as well, with Chinese merchants coming to dominate commerce some areas. That can be inflammatory in any number of ways... certainly it has been in SE Asia.

There are things we see in Asia; I wonder how many are repeated there.

Cheap Chinese goods undersell locally produced items, particularly clothing and basic manufactures like cooking pots, plastic basins, all kinds of other other simple common household goods, pushing small local enterprises out of business.

Chinese shopowners often have access to more capital than local equivalents, allowing them to quickly dominate. Local businessmen find it difficult to compete and may close, putting additional pressure on an already fragile middle class.

Large numbers of what first appear to be small Chinese commercial enterprises are often linked, allowing them to manipulate prices and supplies. Sometimes this gets really overt. Prices may drop in a local area, forcing a locally owned competitor out of business, or strange "shortages" - like a sudden absence of cement in the middle of building season - may suddenly force prices up.

There's often a perception (often accurate) that Chinese merchants are paying police or regulators, allowing them free rein in exploiting locals.

Exploitive money-lending rackets emerge in many places, dominated by the Chinese (though Indians often have a hand in those rackets as well, in SE Asia).

Have these situations appeared much in your experience?

This sort of thing is actually more likely to spark local resentment than corporate malfeasance, which is often less visible and less immediate. If things move in this direction - and it would surprise me if they didn't - it would be reasonable to expect that sooner or later anti-Chinese riots might break out in some locations. Have to wonder what the response would be.

All of that is of course very speculative, and largely based on observations of commercial practice in other environments. I will be interested to see what actually happens in Africa. I'd guess, though, that anyone who expects Chinese investment to be the salvation of Africa is likely to be disappointed.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 05:57 AM
Dayuhan,

The Chinese are quite new here and Nigerians are very aggressive business people (unlike most other Africans). So I haven't seen many examples of Nigerian businesses losing to the Chinese (the decline of the Nigerian Textile Industry is due to poor infrastructure and inadequate electricity supply - issues that are yet to be resolved today).

What I tend to see are collaborations between Nigerian business men and the Chinese. For e.g. this bus/vehicle factory in Eastern Nigeria

http://www.innosongroup.com/innosonmotors/ivm6660a.php

http://www.innosongroup.com/innosonmotors/ivm6125.php

http://www.innosongroup.com/innosonmotors/mid-thb/truck.jpg

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 08:00 AM
Snippets from an article, confirms what I've always suspected - Boko Haram enjoys widespread sympathy in Northern Nigeria.


But last Thursday, Ms. Maryln Ogar, spokesperson of the State Security Service, SSS, said the security agencies have been unfairly criticised. Speaking on a morning programme on the Lagos-based Channels Television, Ogar argued that a slice of the blame should go to the residents, some of whom she claimed clapped for Boko Haram members as they shot at policemen. She added that residents also have a tendency to hoard information that could help nip such occurrences in the bud.

Source: http://thenewsafrica.com/2011/11/14/the-yobe-massacre/

Dayuhan
11-17-2011, 08:33 AM
Dayuhan,

The Chinese are quite new here and Nigerians are very aggressive business people (unlike most other Africans). So I haven't seen many examples of Nigerian businesses losing to the Chinese (the decline of the Nigerian Textile Industry is due to poor infrastructure and inadequate electricity supply - issues that are yet to be resolved today).

What I tend to see are collaborations between Nigerian business men and the Chinese. For e.g. this bus/vehicle factory in Eastern Nigeria

Dissenting voice:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201003110537.html


Nigeria: China's Trade Offensive Hurts Local Industry

Chinas' face has suddenly become so ubiquitous in Nigeria's major commercial cities with sub-standard textiles, machinery and auto-parts being the most prominent of the Chinese products being dumped in Africa's biggest market under a relationship that is heavily-tilted in favour of the Asian economic superpower....

...Bashir Borodo who heads Nigeria's Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), describes the Chinese offensive as "disastrous."

"They have done it not only in Nigeria but in other countries also," he told Daily Trust.

That is not of course the last word, and I confess to having used Google. There's an abundance of articles from Nigeria, many of which involve ranting at the proliferation of Chinese textiles:


Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) and Nigerian Textile Manufacturers Association (NTMA), has raised alarm over the systematic and deliberate destruction of the Nigerian textile industry and economy by unscrupulous Chinese their textile exporters and called on the Federal government to engage the Chinese government over the matter.

It may very well be true, as you say, that the decline of the Nigerian textile industry is due primarily to other factors. Certainly that makes sense. But in these matters perception, as you've said before, is often more important than truth. How is the decline generally perceived? If the perception of Chinese merchandise undercutting local business becomes widespread, the truth of the matter may be much less important than the perception.

I'm curious... how much Chinese presence do you have in street-level retail trade? Do you have Chinese-owned hardware stores, building supply, department stores, supermarkets? In other places these businesses constitute a relatively small percentage of overall Chinese investment, but because they are very visible and create the impression of Chinese encroachment in the local economy, they tend to be very controversial.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 09:33 AM
It may very well be true, as you say, that the decline of the Nigerian textile industry is due primarily to other factors. Certainly that makes sense. But in these matters perception, as you've said before, is often more important than truth. How is the decline generally perceived? If the perception of Chinese merchandise undercutting local business becomes widespread, the truth of the matter may be much less important than the perception.

I'm curious... how much Chinese presence do you have in street-level retail trade? Do you have Chinese-owned hardware stores, building supply, department stores, supermarkets? In other places these businesses constitute a relatively small percentage of overall Chinese investment, but because they are very visible and create the impression of Chinese encroachment in the local economy, they tend to be very controversial.

Nigeria produces only about 4,000MW of electricity on a good day, its transportation networks are terrible and Nigeria has been steadily de-industrialising since Babangida introduced the World Bank / IMF mandated structural adjustment programs in 1985. The Chinese did not create these barriers to manufacturing.

I am not suggesting that the Chinese are not making life difficult for Nigerian manufacturers, but there is a lot more to that than meets the eye

I have Chinese neighbours and there is a Chinese market near my house. Commercial activities in Nigeria are still dominated by the Indians, Lebanese and Igbo.

In Lagos, the Chinese presence is visible, but it is not overwhelming - anyway, there is so much going on in Lagos that sometimes it is difficult to stand out.

Dayuhan
11-17-2011, 10:13 AM
Nigeria produces only about 4,000MW of electricity on a good day, its transportation networks are terrible and Nigeria has been steadily de-industrialising since Babangida introduced the World Bank / IMF mandated structural adjustment programs in 1985. The Chinese did not create these barriers to manufacturing.

I am not suggesting that the Chinese are not making life difficult for Nigerian manufacturers, but there is a lot more to that than meets the eye

I understand this and it makes sense to me. Again, though, perceptions may be more important than reality. Just as politicians use the AFRICOM bogeyman to distract attention from their own inadequacies, might they not also try to deflect the anger of those unemployed youths onto the Chinese, rather than accepting and addressing their own responsibility for the problem? It sounds like a situation ripe for exploitation and with an easy scapegoat at hand.

Misifus
11-17-2011, 03:36 PM
What happened to the Terror & Islam intended topic of this thread? :p

Nevertheless, the below comments from Dayuhan are a good sidebar, so I will add :eek:


The number of Chinese workers in Africa is also growing rapidly, and many of them work in jobs and business that could be done by local people. This is true. There are however, increasing policies that provide for "Local Content" in some African countries. Examples that I personally know of (1) all foreign oil companies in Nigeria are required to increase the local content of new and ongoing projects. The Local Content program in Nigeria has met with some success, like ExxonMobil's Erha project, but this is a challenge in the oil & gas sector to develop qualified people and vendors. (2) In Angola, foreign oilfield workers get "blue-stamped" on their passports. This means after three years their passports get a stamp that allows for only one more work visa renewal. After that, the foreign worker cannot come back. The intent is that the foreign oil company train a local to be the replacement for the foreign worker. It is a challenge to train locals as replacements. So visa waivers are often given. These types of programs have been suspended before when platforms start blowing up and stuff.


I've read that in East Africa Chinese investors are buying up farmland and bringing in Chinese labor to work it, a policy that seems certain to cause trouble.

Okay, but you know a place like Angola could use a program like this. Angola had a wonderful agricultural industry. Their coffee industry alone was like the 3rd most productive in the world rivaling Brazil and Colombia. They were a net exporter of agricultural goods. Then come the wars. The business does not resurrect after the wars end (recent) and there are no indications that it ever will resurrect. Mines are of course a problem, but even if that were not the case, agriculture is something that holds little interest to the people and government other than for subsistence and local need. One can grow anything in Angola. It should be a net food exporter. Ships leave Angolan ports empty, unless they are oil tankers.



Large-scale foreign investment, like what the Chinese are pursuing now in many parts of Africa, often appears attractive in the early phases, when the net transfer of money and resources is inbound. As the projects mature and the net transfer of resources starts flowing in the opposite direction (as it is clearly intended to do - the Chinese are not in this for charity) they may start to seem less appealing and less beneficial. That's the time you'd expect trouble to start. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Chinese eventually propping up unpopular governments that they've made long-term deals with, sending military equipment, advisers, and eventually stepping into the small war arena.

That may happen. China is striking some unusual deals in Africa. An example I know of is the rebuilding of the Benguela-Belize railroad in Angola. Due to transparency requirements, Angola was unable to secure credit form Western resources to rebuild this railroad. The Chinese struck a deal with Angola whereby they would rebuild the railroad for 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil per day. Labor-wise, it cost China almost nothing. They simply brought in prison labor from China. The prisoners came in by ship. We could see the ships unloading them in Luanda where they were put in these outdoor pens hastily put up by the docks. Buses then came and picked them up and took them out to the work sites/camps.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 03:44 PM
I understand this and it makes sense to me. Again, though, perceptions may be more important than reality. Just as politicians use the AFRICOM bogeyman to distract attention from their own inadequacies, might they not also try to deflect the anger of those unemployed youths onto the Chinese, rather than accepting and addressing their own responsibility for the problem? It sounds like a situation ripe for exploitation and with an easy scapegoat at hand.

Nigerian politicians don't blame the Chinese bogeyman. China doesn't loom large in Nigeria like Zambia. Nigerians are more likely to blame the Lebanese and Indians before they get to the Chinese.

There was a lot of noise made about Bharti Airtel's sacking of a few thousand Nigerian workers. I would suggest that the Indians and Lebanese have an even worse reputation here, because they've been around longer and have more entrenched business interests.

A certain segment of the business community is quite happy with the Chinese. I did consulting work for the largest Cement factory in Nigeria (located in Central Nigeria). The factory is owned by a Nigerian billionaire and the plant infrastructure was put in place by Sinochem (at a much lower cost than a Western firm) and management and technical expertise was provided by Indians (at lower cost than Westerners). My landlord makes a lot of money importing building materials (glass and doors) from the Chinese.

The Chinese are building a 16,500 hectare free trade zone in the Lekki area and they are one of the major contractors on the Lagos light rail project. They are certainly very dynamic participants.

Chowing
11-17-2011, 04:20 PM
That is the Nigerian Police Force's usual modus operandi, once they get tired of keeping you in detention, they size you up (do you have rich or influential relatives?), if you don't they simply take you outside, shoot you and claim you are an "armed robbery suspect".

In many parts of Nigeria, the military has a similar reputation. .....So much innocent blood was split by the Nigerian military in the Niger Delta. I recall how they leveled an entire village (Odi), laying waste to anything alive. We weren't surprised when the Niger Delta erupted.

Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?



The military and police have inflamed the situation and that has led to the terrible violence that is happening almost weekly.

I have read that some of the military are actually sympathetic with Boko Haram's concerns.

Chowing
11-17-2011, 04:31 PM
NEPAD, MCC and AGOA are mere buzzwords, well intentioned, but of little significance. Africa has business potential, but it requires a high-level of tolerance for risk - that leaves us with the Chinese (primarily) and the Indians.

In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).



I have seen several sites ( I will look them up if you wish) that are popping up trying to match investors with Africans who have new product ideas, products that address everyday needs in Africa. I do not think this is the only answer, but based on my experience I do not see any hope in granting funds to economic kingpins nor government officials. In my opinion, it is the opinion of a non-African, that Africa needs some young entrepreneurs. As you say, one would have to have a tolerance for risk. That is exactly what Joint Venture angels are used to.

JMA
11-17-2011, 05:26 PM
I wish I had a better answer for you herein, but my Google skills are slightly less than some seem to think.

I am told that the NEPAD (http://www.unicef.org/publications/files/NEPAD_FINAL.pdf) program from UNICEF might give you some direction.

I'd also like to think that our friend in SA has some better insight.

JMA, are you sleeping already mate ?

Sorry last night was an early one, took a little blue pill and ... (well you know ;)

The general view from South Africa is that the Nigerians here are parasites (call it aggressive businessmen if you like). They are mainly involved in the sex and drug industries and continue to bribe their way to keep in 'business' and out of jail. Very, very bad reputation.

On the other hand the Somalis who open small shops attract jealousy as they are astute, offer credit to locals and soon dominate the market.

My personal opinion is that the test comes when the world sees whether Nigerians can create wealth (in a broad sense) rather than buy-and-sell or wheel-and-deal with the products of other peoples labour.

With the current level of corruption in Nigeria only a fool will invest there. Saved by oil. Give it 50 years then maybe.

ganulv
11-17-2011, 05:33 PM
The general view from South Africa is that the Nigerians here are parasites (call it aggressive businessmen if you like). They are mainly involved in the sex and drug industries and continue to bribe their way to keep in 'business' and out of jail. Very, very bad reputation.Ouch. Which was also my reaction when the Nigerian characters initially appeared in District 9 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1136608/).

JMA
11-17-2011, 05:45 PM
The military and police have inflamed the situation and that has led to the terrible violence that is happening almost weekly.

I have read that some of the military are actually sympathetic with Boko Haram's concerns.

It is important to understand what the Nigerian Army is. (see: here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Army))

A quote in a 1984 study, Major Michael Stafford of the US Marine Corps said:


"Inexperienced, poorly trained and ineptly led soldiers manifested their lack of professionalism and indiscipline by massacres of innocent civilians and a failure to effectively execute infantry tactics."

Has anything changed since then? Don't think so. But by all means rather use them as proxies as required (like Kenya is now being used in Somalia) than try to deploy US troops into West Africa (then turn a blind eye when the reports of human rights abuse come flowing in).

JMA
11-17-2011, 05:47 PM
Ouch. Which was also my reaction when the Nigerian characters initially appeared in District 9 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1136608/).

That's the general view of the majority. Hard to argue against that based on the hard evidence.

Stan
11-17-2011, 05:52 PM
Ouch. Which was also my reaction when the Nigerian characters initially appeared in District 9 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1136608/).

NOt sure where to go with this other than agree. The Africans are far tougher on each other, and, obviously know each other far better than we would hope to.

I won't even pretend to know what they think of the DRC.

Stan
11-17-2011, 05:55 PM
JMA,
Thanks... Not exactly what I thought, but then, we are no longer permitted to use Google here for some strange reason :D

Tough crowd !

I have to admit that all my dead uncle emails have suddenly stopped, which, makes me wonder what is in store for the rest of us.


Sorry last night was an early one, took a little blue pill and ... (well you know ;)

The general view from South Africa is that the Nigerians here are parasites (call it aggressive businessmen if you like). They are mainly involved in the sex and drug industries and continue to bribe their way to keep in 'business' and out of jail. Very, very bad reputation.

On the other hand the Somalis who open small shops attract jealousy as they are astute, offer credit to locals and soon dominate the market.

My personal opinion is that the test comes when the world sees whether Nigerians can create wealth (in a broad sense) rather than buy-and-sell or wheel-and-deal with the products of other peoples labour.

With the current level of corruption in Nigeria only a fool will invest there. Saved by oil. Give it 50 years then maybe.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 05:55 PM
I have seen several sites ( I will look them up if you wish) that are popping up trying to match investors with Africans who have new product ideas, products that address everyday needs in Africa. I do not think this is the only answer, but based on my experience I do not see any hope in granting funds to economic kingpins nor government officials. In my opinion, it is the opinion of a non-African, that Africa needs some young entrepreneurs. As you say, one would have to have a tolerance for risk. That is exactly what Joint Venture angels are used to.

Matching investors with African who have new product ideas is a great concept, but it points to a deeper problem - the absence of a fit for purpose banking system in most African nations. Think about it, why don't banks in Nigeria and Kenya do that sort of thing? Some of the reasons include the absence of proper land registration, insufficient understanding of property rights etc., so the risks tend to be high.

Matching investors to young entrepreneurs is great, but unless you are doing charity, the risk profile is enough to scare most serious investors.

For example, I worked as a manager at KPMG and I found it quite difficult to obtain consumer loans and even at that I was offered 21% interest rate. African governments are quite simply either unwilling or incapable of creating conditions that lower the cost of borrowing.

So how do we raise money? We tend to use the "esusu" system. We form a group and everyone pools resources on a monthly basis. Every month its someone's turn to benefit from the common pot, you can easily police bad behaviour, because if someone refuses to play along it affects everyone else. I think a similar system could work (enabled by technology) because it mitigates risk better than traditional venture capital model. I.e. you identify a group of young entrepreneurs, give them seed money and get them to form an "esusu" system - entrepreneur B's funding is dependent on how compliant entrepreneur A is to the terms of the initial agreement and so on.

However, the most common source of funding is from family or what we call the "freedom" system. The "freedom system" works like this; you work as an apprentice for a trader, mechanic, carpenter etc. At the end of your apprenticeship he gives you a lump sum to start your own business called your "freedom". You both have the skills, the contacts and some money to get going.

In closing, one of the reasons why many initiatives from the development/NGO community fail is because they don't tend to consult the locals (no matter how well educated they are) when designing new products or concepts.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 06:41 PM
Sorry last night was an early one, took a little blue pill and ... (well you know

The general view from South Africa is that the Nigerians here are parasites (call it aggressive businessmen if you like). They are mainly involved in the sex and drug industries and continue to bribe their way to keep in 'business' and out of jail. Very, very bad reputation.

On the other hand the Somalis who open small shops attract jealousy as they are astute, offer credit to locals and soon dominate the market.

My personal opinion is that the test comes when the world sees whether Nigerians can create wealth (in a broad sense) rather than buy-and-sell or wheel-and-deal with the products of other peoples labour.

With the current level of corruption in Nigeria only a fool will invest there. Saved by oil. Give it 50 years then maybe.

I was in South Africa twice last year, and while we don't have a very good reputation down South, I saw a good number of Nigerian owned businesses (from restaurants to mechanic workshops etc). I was also asked by virtually every black South African I met about their favourite Nollywood actor/actress.

Both Nigerians and Somalians attract jealousy and violence from black South Africans.

It also goes both ways. We think black South Africans are violent, lazy and unambitious (a view shared by many white South Africans). You are less likely to be robbed in broad daylight as a foreigner in Lagos than at Joburg.

I also got a sense that white South Africans were afraid for their future (a white colleague told me about how her uncle was robbed and killed on the road). They are uncomfortable with Jacob Zuma, but are scared of Julius Malema.

Anyone who doubts the ability of Nigerians to create wealth has probably never been to Aba, Onitsha or Nnewi (where most of our plastics are made). Anyway, since most of you spend time in heavily fortified deluxe compounds in Lekki, V/Island in Ikoyi, you wont see that. The Oil and Gas business in Nigeria only employs about 0.15% of Nigeria's workforce, who do you think employs the rest?

Sadly, the days of Western dominated FDI in Africa are are ending. The business community knows that investment opportunities abound in SSA. (McKinsey opened an office in Lagos ) and KFC is doing just fine here. However, it is the Chinese and Indians who are making good money from doing business with the man on the street. ($100 petrol generators, $300 motorcycles).

Do you know why Western firms missed out on investing in Nigeria's booming telecom market? It is because their CEOs thought like you. The market is dominated by the Indians and the South Africans and the Chinese (Huawei) are gaining ground in the telecom infrastructure side.

I think we should get back to the topic of this thread.

davidbfpo
11-17-2011, 06:51 PM
I know the original thread title was / is 'Nigeria & Islam: terrorism plus', but we have meandered to our gain IMHO. SWC is not just a discussion forum, it also seeks insight and understanding. Some would call this Human Terrain plus. :wry:

The thread has helped provide context for the perceived threat from Boko Haram.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 08:06 PM
Just as politicians use the AFRICOM bogeyman to distract attention from their own inadequacies, might they not also try to deflect the anger of those unemployed youths onto the Chinese, rather than accepting and addressing their own responsibility for the problem? It sounds like a situation ripe for exploitation and with an easy scapegoat at hand.

AFRICOM taps into some real fears. You cannot wish away five hundred years of colonisation and slavery. When I was a student every undergraduate was required to read How the West Underdeveloped Africa by Walter Rodney and pass a course based on that book to graduate. (I suspect that the same conditions applied at many other universities).

I don't know what the situation is like today, but I didn't leave university too long ago (I was still there in the late nineties). We university graduates tend to be opinion-shapers.

Then you have the prospect of every word uttered in support of Israel by American politicians being twisted and manipulated by opinion-shapers in the Muslim parts of Northern Nigeria. There have been demonstrations and riots in support of the Palestinians, against the first and second Gulf Wars and even against the American invasion of Afghanistan.

All this, however, is countered by the positive examples of Bill Gates, American involvement in health care delivery, support for democracy, impressions from the diaspora and the reputation of American companies as being the best employers. It is important to note that none of the positive perceptions of the United States in Africa have anything to do with the US military.

Also note that there have been very few overt positive examples of US military intervention in Africa or Sub-Saharan Africa. The last example of US military intervention was Libya, but Libya plays better with the Arab World than with Sub-Saharan Africa. For all his quirks, Gaddafi was genuinely popular in Black Africa (especially in areas that had prolonged liberation struggles). He was also not as racist as the typical Arab.

The untold story of the Libyan revolution is the unfair targeting / war crimes committed against black Libyans / Sub-Saharan Africans by the Western-backed rebels. It doesn't get much airtime in the West, but it plays quite badly in SS Africa.

If the US succeeds in capturing Joseph Kony, then it will create favourable ratings for the US military among the Christian population of East Africa. It will have very little impact elsewhere, as I said in earlier posts, Africa is huge. And from Nigeria, Uganda could as well be on another planet.

(NB: the flow of information, cultural links and trade between African nations should be studied. e.g. If Nigerian movies are popular in Uganda, what are they about? if Nigerian businessmen are active in South Africa and West Africa what are they selling? If Nigerian evangelical pastors are admired in Cameroon, what message are they preaching? This information will be useful in understanding how the modern African mind is being shaped).

We also have some history with the Chinese. Before the Chinese became a major economic player, they were enthusiastic supporters of liberation movements. They also are more at our level - i.e: my Chinese boss / colleague may be an SOB, but he is also less likely to earn ten times my salary for doing a similar job, more likely to live, shop and use the same mode of transportation as I do - and since he is at a similar social level, there are more opportunities for interaction.

There are Chinese who tend to seclude themselves from the locals, but as they gain familiarity with Africa, the tendency is for them to interact more with the people. On the other hand, Westerners are retreating back more into their shells (albeit for understandable reasons - security).

So with the West, there is an element of jealousy (you are so much richer), while with the Chinese, it tends to be hatred (depends on the company, Huawei is seen as a great place to work). (I studied abroad and have been quite well-paid, so that doesn't apply to me, but applies to many other people).

Ken White
11-17-2011, 08:27 PM
It is important to note that none of the positive perceptions of the United States in Africa have anything to do with the US military.It has been my observation that is true in most of the rest of the world. I have also noted that the relative dislike of the over large, over wealthy US while subject to many variables peaked IMO in the late 1968 - early 1970 period over Viet Nam then began to decline only to again climb as the Goldwater-Nichols took hold and the US Armed Forces assumed worldwide responibilities under the Geographic Commands -- and as US Aid, USIS the PEACE Corps and the Department of State all were eclipsed by the military ascendance. Major and deleterious unintended consequence.
They also are more at our level - i.e: my Chinese boss / colleague may be an SOB, but he is also less likely to earn ten times my salary for doing a similar job, more likely to live, shop and use the same mode of transportation as I do - and since he is at a similar social level, there are more opportunities for interaction.Having tried to live, work and spend like a native in two foreign nations on the rationale that US perceived excess annoyed the locals, I can tell you it's hard to do -- the system, the US System, doesn't like that. You make others look bad and that causes dissension. The system likes -- seeks -- tranquility... :o

Reactions of locals were varied and interesting -- suffice to say, it isn't easy to blend.

The flip side is that if you put most US salary in escrow pending return to CONUS and paid US civilian or military employes at local rate, you'd likely get few takers for overseas jobs. I do not see any easy solution to that problem...
There are Chinese who tend to seclude themselves from the locals, but as they gain familiarity with Africa, the tendency is for them to interact more with the people. On the other hand, Westerners are retreating back more into their shells (albeit for understandable reasons - security).I suspect security is a big but far from the only reason for that withdrawal into little golden ghettos. Whatever the cause, it's a part of the salary / blending problem and we Americans do not do it well. Neither did the British, really but then, they didn't expect to be 'liked.'

Chowing
11-17-2011, 08:32 PM
I perceive a little, open South African - Nigerian competition.

Misifus
11-17-2011, 08:47 PM
...Having tried to live, work and spend like a native in two foreign nations on the rationale that US perceived excess annoyed the locals, I can tell you it's hard to do -- the system, the US System, doesn't like that. You make others look bad and that causes dissension. The system likes -- seeks -- tranquility...

Those observations dovetail with mine. There are a series of handbooks out called "Culture Shock." Much of these handbooks have excerpts from the old Area Handbooks that the now defunct U.S. Government Printing Office used to publish. They described overseas posted personnel generally into three groups (1) The Hermits, (2) The Natives, (3) The Cosmopolitans. Out of the three, The Natives were frowned upon the most by their expat peers. The same types exist within corporate expatriate personnel.

Chowing
11-17-2011, 08:49 PM
I think we should get back to the topic of this thread.

I think we are on track with this discussion. I agree with you that the major contributing factor to the wide-spread support of Boko Haram is the economic environment of the masses in the country. The solution to this problem is not a military one, military from within Nigeria or from the outside. The answer, a long term one at that, is helping the average Nigerian enjoy a better standard of living.

With the huge population base and good infrastructure (especially when comparing it to other African countries) there is every reason to believe that good minds, good hearts, and some money will meet and shape a future that is not so fertile for Boko Haram.

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 09:05 PM
I think we are on track with this discussion. I agree with you that the major contributing factor to the wide-spread support of Boko Haram is the economic environment of the masses in the country. The solution to this problem is not a military one, military from within Nigeria or from the outside. The answer, a long term one at that, is helping the average Nigerian enjoy a better standard of living.

With the huge population base and good infrastructure (especially when comparing it to other African countries) there is every reason to believe that good minds, good hearts, and some money will meet and shape a future that is not so fertile for Boko Haram.

In retrospect, I agree with you.

ganulv
11-17-2011, 09:15 PM
The flip side is that if you put most US salary in escrow pending return to CONUS and paid US civilian or military employes at local rate, you'd likely get few takers for overseas jobs. I do not see any easy solution to that problem...I suspect security is a big but far from the only reason for that withdrawal into little golden ghettos.My step-father was for a short time the personal physician to a prince in a Kingdom-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named. After eight weeks of not seeing his patient he was bored silly with compound life and carefully and politely resigned his position. But most of the other residents of the compound loved it there. These sorts of situations lead me to believe that a great many American ex-pats are exchanging a life of struggling to not miss a mortgage payment for a life of relative material comfort and the chance to “be somebody” on the local scene in a way they would never be in the States (*cough* missionaries *cough*). The escrow arrangement would take such folks—who do America’s image abroad no good—out of the selection pool if nothing else. But I do acknowledge that that group seems to make up such a large portion of the USpora that in doing so it might prove impossible to fill all the necessary slots.

Misifus
11-17-2011, 09:30 PM
My step-father was for a short time the personal physician to a prince in a Kingdom-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named. After eight weeks of not seeing his patient he was bored silly with compound life and carefully and politely resigned his position. But most of the other residents of the compound loved it there. These sorts of situations lead me to believe that a great many American ex-pats are exchanging a life of struggling to not miss a mortgage payment for a life of relative material comfort and the chance to “be somebody” on the local scene in a way they would never be in the States (*cough* missionaries *cough*). The escrow arrangement would take such folks—who do America’s image abroad no good—out of the selection pool if nothing else. But I do acknowledge that that group seems to make up such a large portion of the USpora that in doing so it might prove impossible to fill all the necessary slots.

This could be a whole new topic. I was at a compound in a Kingdom-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named just last year. Talk about posh living. If you do a GoogleMap flyover the only green you will see is the golf course in the compound, which is now even lit at night. Not only that, when the kids reach high school you get to ship them off to boarding school :D

KingJaja
11-17-2011, 10:27 PM
I suspect security is a big but far from the only reason for that withdrawal into little golden ghettos. Whatever the cause, it's a part of the salary / blending problem and we Americans do not do it well. Neither did the British, really but then, they didn't expect to be 'liked.'

Another take on that issue. Twenty years ago, it was easier to interact with expatriates than it is today (I am talking from my own experience). The US embassy wasn't the forbidding fortress-like structure that we see today.

The main issue is how to manage the economic disparity and the need for security with the perception.

It is so in your face! It might become dangerous (both for the expats and their employers).

In Lagos traffic, you notice expatriates being chauffeur driven in brand new cars coming from the best parts of town. You also see convoys of armed policemen escorting mid-level employees of Oil and Gas companies to the airport.

The Chinese tend to go about their business less obtrusively. I once lived near a Huawei guest house and I observed how Huawei engineers go to work (four per car - second hand 1998 model Toyota Camry) and live (several to a flat).


Those observations dovetail with mine. There are a series of handbooks out called "Culture Shock." Much of these handbooks have excerpts from the old Area Handbooks that the now defunct U.S. Government Printing Office used to publish. They described overseas posted personnel generally into three groups (1) The Hermits, (2) The Natives, (3) The Cosmopolitans. Out of the three, The Natives were frowned upon the most by their expat peers. The same types exist within corporate expatriate personnel.

Well, even your diplomats are hermits now. You stand the risk of cementing the impression that Americans are rich, soft, risk-averse and aloof. That you only venture out from the safety of their comfort zones when you have overwhelming military force, that you are not real men (this is the line the Islamic fundamentalists push).

This article from the VOA, confirms my observations (it mentions that the Chinese need to interact more, but I have Chinese neighbours and we sometimes play soccer together).


But according to Brautigam, China’s nationals working in Africa have nevertheless gained more respect on the continent because of their simple way of living. She uses a practical example she witnessed in the recent past to give credence to her point of view.
.....................................

“The United States…had eight experts and they had built ranch-style houses in a little subdivision, with street lights and sidewalks, and everything the way it would be in Texas or someplace like that!” Brautigam laughs.

While Western donors tend to spend a lot of their aid funds on luxurious housing and high salaries for their experts, and anything that’ll provide comfort for their expatriate staff in the host country, the Chinese prefer to spend the money on the actual aid projects, she says.

“These (types of behavior) have implications in terms of the bang for the buck. If you’re building all those ranch-style houses, and flying in containers of food, your aid money doesn’t go as far,” Brautigam quips.

Ndubisi Obiorah, the Executive Director of Nigeria’s Centre for Law and Social Action, says one of the major reasons for China’s popularity amongst African political and business leaders is the country’s provision of expatriates who provide cheaper expertise to the continent.

In Nigeria, he says, the Chinese are perceived as being “better able to transfer technology to Nigerian employees than Western expatriates.”

In Obiorah’s experience, China is popular amongst businesspeople in Africa because of a simple reason: Money.

“Africans associate the Chinese with profits,” says Obiorah.

Kurlantzick says his research, which has focused upon perceptions of China in Africa, shows that the Chinese remain essentially popular on the continent, despite negative publicity such as the flood of cheap Chinese labor and goods into Africa. He says Africans have a “very favorable impression” of China largely because of the country’s eagerness to build essential infrastructure, such as roads, across the continent, which they consider essential to their attempts to escape from poverty.

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-African-Respect-for-Chinese-Expatriates-Grows.html

As the "War on Terror" progresses and you further retreat behind your security barriers, meaningful interaction with the locals becomes increasingly difficult. I just don't know how you are going to win this battle against the Chinese and Indians.

The Chinese are already taunting some Western NGO workers by asking them how committed they are to eradicating poverty when they live in luxury And this is playing badly with the proportion of the population who (a) don't see the benefits of a lot of the aid (Bill Gates is an exception) and (b) think that aid is a scam to enrich corrupt politicians.

Perception!

Dayuhan
11-18-2011, 12:28 AM
Twenty years ago, it was easier to interact with expatriates than it is today (I am talking from my own experience). The US embassy wasn't the forbidding fortress-like structure that we see today...

In Lagos traffic, you notice expatriates being chauffeur driven in brand new cars coming from the best parts of town. You also see convoys of armed policemen escorting mid-level employees of Oil and Gas companies to the airport.

US Embassy people are strange, everywhere. The US Embassy here is by far the largest foreign mission in the country, but the staff are virtually invisible, you never see or meet them anywhere. There's a rumour that on the rare occasions when they leave their secure areas they adopt an elaborate system of camouflage, wearing maple-leaf t-shirts and saying "eh" a lot.

The whole expat phenomenon is always strange, though the manner in which it's strange varies a lot from place to place. It sounds like the scene there is dominated by the embassies and the oil & gas crowd, both of which are notorious for pampering and overprotecting expat staff.


As the "War on Terror" progresses and you further retreat behind your security barriers, meaningful interaction with the locals becomes increasingly difficult. I just don't know how you are going to win this battle against the Chinese and Indians.

Are we in a battle with the Chinese and Indians? I don't see that we are, or that we need to be. I also don't think spending more money or sending more people would necessarily increase influence or accomplish anything, especially if there's no clear idea of what they're meant to accomplish or how.


The Chinese are already taunting some Western NGO workers by asking them how committed they are to eradicating poverty when they live in luxury And this is playing badly with the proportion of the population who (a) don't see the benefits of a lot of the aid (Bill Gates is an exception) and (b) think that aid is a scam to enrich corrupt politicians.

Those perceptions prevail in many places. I'm sure you've heard the saying that foreign aid is poor people in rich countries sending money to rich people in poor countries.

Misifus
11-18-2011, 12:31 AM
...In Lagos traffic, you notice expatriates being chauffeur driven in brand new cars coming from the best parts of town. You also see convoys of armed policemen escorting mid-level employees of Oil and Gas companies to the airport.

Not that you need validation from me, but your observations are correct.

The employees are shuttled to the airport on a small bus that has curtains on it. They are instructed to not open the curtains and look outside. Inside the bus there is one or two armed guards. There is also a lead armed vehicle and an armed chase vehicles. These vehicles have sirens and whoopee lights on them. They bust there way through the Lagos traffic. I have seen the security guards on these vehicles hit other cars with their billy clubs if those cars are in the way while crawling through traffic. I have also seen the police do this in just directing normal traffic.


Well, even your diplomats are hermits now. You stand the risk of cementing the impression that Americans are rich, soft, risk-averse and aloof. That you only venture out from the safety of their comfort zones when you have overwhelming military force, that you are not real men (this is the line the Islamic fundamentalists push). This is the correct perception, it is the reality. There has been much pussification of the American male, though the Western European man is even more girl-like. Much of this has even crept into our military.


I just don't know how you are going to win this battle against the Chinese and Indians.We are not. The capitulation is about complete.

My first trip to provide training to Nigerians was for a US oil company. They lodged me at the Moorhouse Ikoyi. Pretty nice hotel by Nigerian standards. On the first day of training they had a driver shuttle me back and forth between the hotel and the office in a nice car. The ride took forever going through traffic. Crossing the bridge onto Victoria took forever. The second day I grabbed a motorcycle taxi and was there in about 10 minutes. I was scolded by this particular customer for not using the provided driver and car. I was told if I could not abide by their security rules I would not be invited back for further work.

Dayuhan
11-18-2011, 02:11 AM
This is the correct perception, it is the reality. There has been much pussification of the American male, though the Western European man is even more girl-like. Much of this has even crept into our military.

I know what you mean, but it seems to me to be more about the institutions, choked with rules and regulations, desperately covering their prodigious asses, and obsessed with trying to protect themselves from any claim that they failed to protect everyone in their charge from anything resembling an experience that might produce knowledge. A lot of the individuals seem to me to be quite eager to get out and have a look, but the barriers against it are almost insurmountable unless they show up with no institutional affiliation.


We are not. The capitulation is about complete.

Possibly so. I'm not at all sure, though, that (as I sometimes hear) the Chinese have discovered some magic formula for dominating and controlling the less developed world and are destined to dominate. I say that not from vast experience of Africa, but from a fair bit of experience in dealing with the Chinese. It's still relatively early days and there's a good bit of road left to travel, but I think some folks in Africa are destined to discover that while the Chinese might seem to be great benefactors in the short run, the long term intention is a bit different. Give 'em an inch, they'll take a mile, and they won't stop taking until they hit the backlash point. What form the backlash takes remains to be seen, but I strongly suspect that it will come, because I don't think the Chinese will stop pushing until it does.

I don't think the US is going to out-compete the Chinese for influence in Africa, but I do think it likely that the Chinese will wear out their welcome and make serious trouble for themselves... quite aside from the serious trouble they're already making for themselves on the home front. I don't buy the idea of the unstoppable Chinese juggernaut bound to consume the world.

I don't think the future of Africa lies with the Chinese or the Indians or the Russians, Europeans, or Americans. For better or worse, it's in the hands of the Africans.

Misifus
11-18-2011, 02:16 AM
I know what you mean, but it seems to me to be more about the institutions, choked with rules and regulations, desperately covering their prodigious asses, and obsessed with trying to protect themselves from any claim that they failed to protect everyone in their charge from anything resembling an experience that might produce knowledge. A lot of the individuals seem to me to be quite eager to get out and have a look, but the barriers against it are almost insurmountable unless they show up with no institutional affiliation.

Yup. Sometimes it's great to be a free agent.


I don't think the future of Africa lies with the Chinese or the Indians or the Russians, Europeans, or Americans. For better or worse, it's in the hands of the Africans.

Yup. Like I said upthread. They will have to work these things out for themselves.

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 08:40 AM
I don't think the US is going to out-compete the Chinese for influence in Africa, but I do think it likely that the Chinese will wear out their welcome and make serious trouble for themselves... quite aside from the serious trouble they're already making for themselves on the home front. I don't buy the idea of the unstoppable Chinese juggernaut bound to consume the world.

I don't think the future of Africa lies with the Chinese or the Indians or the Russians, Europeans, or Americans. For better or worse, it's in the hands of the Africans.

You are correct, the US shouldn't try to compete with the Chinese for influence in Africa. But I wonder, what's the point of having an embassy in a country, if your diplomats don't appear to have interest in the country? You could easily outsource the visa services, have a few staff to support the Ambassador and limit the Ambassador to interacting covertly with top generals and politicians.

The Chinese are not an unstoppable juggernaut. They are merely the next set of foreigners (after the Lebanese and Indians) to successfully set up shop in Africa. I expect to see a good number of naturalised Chinese in the future (just like we have naturalised Indians and Lebanese) and a fair amount of successful Chinese companies.

The Chinese are likely to wear out their welcome in some African countries, they are not likely to wear out their welcome in all African countries.

I totally agree with you that the future of Africa lies with Africans themselves. But many Western trained Africans like me are uncomfortable with the West's slow withdrawal from the African continent. (You are in Africa, but you make every effort not to be in Africa).

British district commissioners used to tour Northern Nigeria on horse back and interact with the locals in Hausa. In today's risk averse world, it is almost impossible to form such bonds.

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 08:59 AM
Are we in a battle with the Chinese and Indians? I don't see that we are, or that we need to be. I also don't think spending more money or sending more people would necessarily increase influence or accomplish anything, especially if there's no clear idea of what they're meant to accomplish or how.

Your news media seems to suggest so. Respected publications like The Economist, The New York Times, The Times of London etc. Have at least one "China is taking over Africa and the US/West is being left behind" story every week. Your politicians seem to suggest so - listen to Mrs. Clinton on China and Africa. Your academics write numerous papers on this topic and the almighty Fareed Zakaria seems to say so.

Who am I, and what qualifies me to disagree with the opinions of the Masters of the Universe?

As I said earlier, the US shouldn't try to compete against the Chinese in Africa. But you are a competitive people and you like to win. For instance, you are building bases in Australia to contain China and protect shipments of iron ore from Australia to China.

Dayuhan
11-18-2011, 09:04 AM
But I wonder, what's the point of having an embassy in a country, if your diplomats don't appear to have interest in the country? You could easily outsource the visa services, have a few staff to support the Ambassador and limit the Ambassador to interacting covertly with top generals and politicians.

This is a question that has baffled Americans living overseas for many decades... what exactly do the people in that building do? Believe me, we don't know either. I'm not even sure they know.


The Chinese are likely to wear out their welcome in some African countries, they are not likely to wear out their welcome in all African countries.

Certainly not all, and certainly not all at the same time. I suspect, though, that in at least one place they will step in it big time and find themselves harnessed to an inept government threatened by insurgents that are riding at least partly on an anti-Chinese platform. What they do then will be interesting to see... will they cut their losses and back out, or have a small war of their very own? A small war in Africa would be a real burden for them, especially if it stopped being small, which they often do.


I totally agree with you that the future of Africa lies with Africans themselves. But many Western trained Africans like me are uncomfortable with the West's slow withdrawal from the African continent. (You are in Africa, but you make every effort not to be in Africa).

The discomfort at a US absence seems matched by equal discomfort with a US presence, which always seems to be regarded with deep suspicion. A middle ground is hard to find, especially with the US populace wary of involvement. No matter what the US does, somebody - generally a lot of people - will be upset. If we say Africa is a priority and devote resources to it, we're making a sinister grab for resources; if we back off we don't care.

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 09:37 AM
I think counter-terrorism is should be more of police/CID type operation than a military operation. If things get pretty violent, then it points to a failure of policing (e.g. the Royal Ulster Constabulary, Nigerian Police).

The reason why I brought this up is that I am seeing vastly more military-to-military engagements than police-to-police engagements.

The Nigerian Police is in terrible shape and some people are suggesting that the entire (Federal, Central) police force should either be scrapped or streamlined and local policing should be handled by state police who have a better grasp of what is happening on the ground. A former head of state recently suggested that state police would be better equipped to deal with the problems of terrorism and militancy.

What do you guys think?

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 09:43 AM
The discomfort at a US absence seems matched by equal discomfort with a US presence, which always seems to be regarded with deep suspicion. A middle ground is hard to find, especially with the US populace wary of involvement. No matter what the US does, somebody - generally a lot of people - will be upset. If we say Africa is a priority and devote resources to it, we're making a sinister grab for resources; if we back off we don't care.

We are not uncomfortable with a US civilian presence, we are uncomfortable (for understandable reasons) with a US military presence. That is the important distinction.

If the PLA were to announce the creation of a Chinese AFRICOM tomorrow, we will even be more uncomfortable.

Stan
11-18-2011, 09:47 AM
The subject has baffled even those inside the embassy as if the building was some sort of force field to spare you from seeing the real world outside. Generally speaking the State staff have clear and defined tasks in addition to what congressmen and senators want. The embassy is but a place where your computer terminal resides and your job is outside.

The military at embassies are normally stationed very close to their contacts such as the MOD or Defense HQs.

Some people don't want to be there and that just stymies the system and hurts the host government. We have to fight for foreign assistance funds and if we don't, the other guy at another embassy with a passion for doing things gets the extra cash every year.


But I wonder, what's the point of having an embassy in a country, if your diplomats don't appear to have interest in the country? You could easily outsource the visa services, have a few staff to support the Ambassador and limit the Ambassador to interacting covertly with top generals and politicians.


This is a question that has baffled Americans living overseas for many decades... what exactly do the people in that building do? Believe me, we don't know either. I'm not even sure they know.




We are not uncomfortable with a US civilian presence, we are uncomfortable (for understandable reasons) with a US military presence. That is the important distinction.

EDIT: Exactly and so well put. That, is in fact the job of the embassy to ensure such cultural diversities and concerns are addressed with their mission statement.

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 09:59 AM
Certainly not all, and certainly not all at the same time. I suspect, though, that in at least one place they will step in it big time and find themselves harnessed to an inept government threatened by insurgents that are riding at least partly on an anti-Chinese platform. What they do then will be interesting to see... will they cut their losses and back out, or have a small war of their very own? A small war in Africa would be a real burden for them, especially if it stopped being small, which they often do.

I doubt they'll commit their own troops to a war. They will either fight through proxies (like many other nations do) or cut their losses and back out. Alternatively, they may decide to invest heavily in regional organisations like the AU and craft a mechanism to protect their investments in Africa. (This of course, will involve heavy investments with regional heavyweights like Ethiopia and Nigeria).

I thought that Southern Sudan would chew them out, but they seem to have handled the situation there quite well. They are settling down well with Michael Sata in Zambia and the opposition in Zimbabwe doesn't seem to have many problems dealing with them. They are learning to court both the party in power and opposition politicians.

Stan
11-18-2011, 12:45 PM
Jaja,
This is again a function for the embassy Legal Attache and/or Regional Security Officer. Although there are several bilateral and State Partnerships that cover the same inadequacies. We've been trained by both US and UK and most of that training was free. David could probably help you with some contact info, or, I can send you MET SO13/15 info.

But, you're still back to getting the embassy to initiate and seek funding. That translates into the Nigerian government requesting the assistance from the embassy. It has to start there because as you so noted above, there doesn't seem to be much outside activity at your US Embassy.

Every country handles counter terrorism differently.


I think counter-terrorism is should be more of police/CID type operation than a military operation. If things get pretty violent, then it points to a failure of policing (e.g. the Royal Ulster Constabulary, Nigerian Police).

The reason why I brought this up is that I am seeing vastly more military-to-military engagements than police-to-police engagements.

The Nigerian Police is in terrible shape and some people are suggesting that the entire (Federal, Central) police force should either be scrapped or streamlined and local policing should be handled by state police who have a better grasp of what is happening on the ground. A former head of state recently suggested that state police would be better equipped to deal with the problems of terrorism and militancy.

What do you guys think?

davidbfpo
11-18-2011, 05:51 PM
A Comment that opens with:
With a suicide car-bombing of the United Nations building in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, in August, and recent deadly attacks in the northeastern states of Yobe and Borno, Islamist group Boko Haram has announced its return to the stage, two years after it was supposed to have been defeated. The radical group, which used to confine itself to drive-by shootings, is more violent than ever, adding to the pressures on Nigeria's security forces. Faced with the sect's calls for an Islamic caliphate and increasingly sophisticated guerrilla tactics, Defence Minister Bello Halliru Mohammed recently compared Nigeria's current position to 'the United States ... after 9/11'

Ends with:
However, the group does represent a serious threat. In an already highly polarised country of 150 million people and nearly 350 ethnic groups speaking 250 languages, where about 50% of the population is Muslim and 40% Christian, and where nearly three-quarters of the people live on less than $1.25 a day, the potential for inter-ethnic and religious violence remains high. Poverty and unemployment in the north, coupled with population increase and government's inability to deal effectively with non-state groups, can turn northern states into an ideal recruitment ground for extremists and a springboard from which they could expand into the rest of the country. The Abuja attacks suggest that this is already occurring.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/november/boko-haram-nigerias-growing-new-headache/

After a careful, first reading many of the points on the 'human terrain' or context for Boko Haram have been made here. I would contend with additional insight along the way.:)

Chowing
11-18-2011, 06:39 PM
Just at our own KingJaja has been expressing, other African leaders are beginning to express opposition to the US buildup in Africa. Yet, some countries, namely Kenya are asking for assistance.

I expand on this on in my newest blog post at Terrorism In Africa (http://www.terrorisminafrica.com)

Stan
11-18-2011, 06:59 PM
Just at our own KingJaja has been expressing, other African leaders are beginning to express opposition to the US buildup in Africa. Yet, some countries, namely Kenya are asking for assistance.

Not a bad point considering where this thread is going.
Begs the question however, why isn't the Nigerian government requesting assistance ?

I'd hate to think that all these intelligent people are merely debating your country's fate and nobody is doing anything at the government levels. I don't want to sound naive (although I am a bit thick), but, what is the Nigerian government's official view on assistance requests ? If not transparent and open, there will be few takers.


I expand on this on in my newest blog post at Terrorism In Africa (http://www.terrorisminafrica.com)

You have a nice blog but far too much of anti-US Military sentiment for me. Don't take this too seriously, but you will not gain much sympathy outside of Africa with that. Not sure what your objective is.

Potential donor nations don't get off on being insulted.

Chowing
11-18-2011, 07:09 PM
I'd hate to think that all these intelligent people are merely debating your country's fate and nobody is doing anything at the government levels. I don't want to sound naive (although I am a bit thick), but, what is the Nigerian government's official view on assistance requests ? If not transparent and open, there will be few takers.

You have a nice blog but far too much of anti-US Military sentiment for me. Don't take this too seriously, but you will not gain much sympathy outside of Africa with that. Not sure what your objective is.

Potential donor nations don't get off on being insulted.

I am not sure what the Nigerian government's official view is, I am an American, not Nigerian. I have problems with our "military" involvement in African affairs unless it is strictly humanitarian in nature. We tend to stick around way too long once we get involved militarily.

No insult intended. Just opposition. Americans have helped Africa over and over again, some helpful, some not so much. There are, I believe, productive ways we can help, but I am convinced that military involvement will make the problem worse.

I have not specific agenda in my blog other than to report and comment on terrorism in Africa news.

BTW, I just noticed I was promoted to "Council Member" not sure what the distinction means.

I enjoy the give and take on the forum.

jmm99
11-18-2011, 07:27 PM
10 + 1 posts = "Council Member".

Not a real high bar. 479 "Council Members" since inception of SWC. You can check this via clicking "Community" > Members List > Search Members > Advanced Search - getting this form (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/memberlist.php?do=search). 33 members are 1000+.

Regards

Mike

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 07:37 PM
Just at our own KingJaja has been expressing, other African leaders are beginning to express opposition to the US buildup in Africa. Yet, some countries, namely Kenya are asking for assistance.

I expand on this on in my newest blog post at Terrorism In Africa

As I said earlier, Africa is huge (expansive, complex, diverse). This is the first thing every serious analyst should understand.

Kenya is a tourism driven economy. The least informed Masai understands the link between terrorism and dwindling tourism revenue. Also remember that the threat is primarily external (Al Shabab) rather than internal.

On the other hand, in Nigeria, our threats are internal (no matter how many links you conjure between AQIM and Boko Haram). Islamist terrorism in Northern Nigeria, kidnapping in South-Eastern Nigeria, Muslim-Christian clashes in Nigeria's Middle Belt and the Nigeria Delta Militancy are driven by our socio-economic environment.

[NB: Nigerians hold Western Oil and Gas companies and the Nigerian Government equally responsible for the mess in the Niger Delta. (Wikileaks revelations from Shell's Ann Prickard didn't help matters, she boasted that "they knew everything about key decisions in government"). The murky connection between Shell and the murder of Saro-Wiwa is coming to light. The Nigerian Army massacres at Odi and several other locations in the Niger Delta were driven primarily by the need to protect Western Energy interests.

Please watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kbLnx5pJNQ&feature=player_embedded

The man on the street is of the opinion that the Nigerian Government are puppets of Western Oil Companies. (And you can work out the connection: Nigerian Government > Western Oil and Gas Companies > AFRICOM).

These tensions have always existed, in the 1970's, the memories of the Civil War and the Oil Boom attenuated them. Nigeria has experienced steady economic and institutional decline since 1982, and these are only symptoms of our long-running national disease.]

Nations with large Evangelical Christian populations are naturally going to be more accommodating of US presence. Nations with a history of fighting long, bloody wars of liberation will not (South Africa). Nations with significant Islamic populations will not (you can overcome this hurdle if you deal directly with the local strong man).

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 07:51 PM
I'd hate to think that all these intelligent people are merely debating your country's fate and nobody is doing anything at the government levels. I don't want to sound naive (although I am a bit thick), but, what is the Nigerian government's official view on assistance requests ? If not transparent and open, there will be few takers.

Many of you tend to forget that Nigeria is a democracy (albeit imperfect). Government is in a precarious position, if there is a strong indication that the Nigerian Government is taking orders from US or that US advisers are on the ground in Northern Nigeria, then Boko Haram recruitment will rise by at least 200%.

Stan
11-18-2011, 08:01 PM
I am not sure what the Nigerian government's official view is, I am an American, not Nigerian. I have problems with our "military" involvement in African affairs unless it is strictly humanitarian in nature. We tend to stick around way too long once we get involved militarily.

Sorry about that. You gave me the impression you were of Nigerian decent. My bad !

Were you or are you military ? Don't have to answer that, but it helps me gauge your view a bit better.

Here's where we differ in opinions... The US Military is not some kind of humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag when all other (diplomatic) solutions fail. The vast majority of our military is not trained for nor equipped to perform humanitarian missions (meandering around unarmed with the expectations of maintaining security must be the dumbest thing I have ever set my eyes on). It was never our job and we (most of us) honestly suck at it. So, the USG ends up dumping the money on FEDBIZ and hopes to get the lowest bidder to a government contract that will be most effective in a country they have never stepped foot in.

How does that scenario sound ?
No wonder we are always into some Sierra longer than anticipated.

No offense intended herein, but what would you expect us to do when we arrive half prepared and already underfunded ? Nothing rhetorical there - it's been my life for over 30 years.


No insult intended. Just opposition. Americans have helped Africa over and over again, some helpful, some not so much. There are, I believe, productive ways we can help, but I am convinced that military involvement will make the problem worse.

I couldn't agree with you more at this point in my life. I do not have the answers, dude :o

What productive measure sans US Military are you referring to? What's the mission objective, goals, exit strategy, estimated price, etc.? We now have over an inch of paper and congress has yet to approve FY12 despite the fact we are well into the first quarter in the middle of nowhere, and my people are not being paid, there's no fuel, and I have ceased ops. Sorry for blowing off steam with you, but that's exactly where my teams are right this second and I'm over 7,000 miles away. Hmmm, wonder why we stay so long ?


I have not specific agenda in my blog other than to report and comment on terrorism in Africa news.

BTW, I just noticed I was promoted to "Council Member" not sure what the distinction means.

I enjoy the give and take on the forum.

Forgive me, I have no clue what most of these blogs are for. Some I like (if they involve bikers) and some I just don't get.

Congrats on your promotion !

Stan
11-18-2011, 08:03 PM
Jaja,
Valid point. Thanks.

There are literally hundreds of ways to request civilian type assistance. What would be the Nigerian view if say the UK came in ? South Africa ?

So long as it is not the US we're OK ?



Many of you tend to forget that Nigeria is a democracy (albeit imperfect). Government is in a precarious position, if there is a strong indication that the Nigerian Government is taking orders from US or that US advisers are on the ground in Northern Nigeria, then Boko Haram recruitment will rise by at least 200%.

EDIT. Sorry Jaja, our posts crossed in the atmosphere before I could read your last post.


The man on the street is of the opinion that the Nigerian Government are puppets of Western Oil Companies. (And you can work out the connection: Nigerian Government > Western Oil and Gas Companies > AFRICOM).

KingJaja
11-18-2011, 09:48 PM
After a careful, first reading many of the points on the 'human terrain' or context for Boko Haram have been made here. I would contend with additional insight along the way

The first thing you need to understand about Nigeria, is that it is an artificial construct, created by the British to reduce administrative expenses.

The area called Nigeria has been inhabited by several ethnic groups with very different cultures, over a period of thousands of years. In Nigeria's South West, the Benin Empire and the Yoruba Kingdoms were predominant. (A distinguishing characteristic of the Benin Empire was that they refused to sell slaves to Europeans). In the South East, the Igbo were organised into villages, and in most cases they didn't have central leadership figures (they tended to be more consensual). There are other ethnic groups in the South that shared some of the characteristics of the Igbo and the Yoruba.

Slavery was the most significant event to occur in Southern Nigeria before British rule. The impact of slavery on African Americans has been extensively studied, but the impact of slavery on the African psyche has been less studied. I believe that corruption and inter-ethnic antagonisms are the biggest legacies of slavery (slavery was a deeply corrupting, soul-destroying business and most slaves were the victims of wars).

(These are merely my uninformed views).

In Northern Nigeria, Islam had a very long history. There were two major centers of Islam, the Hausa States and the Kanem Bornu empire. In between the Islamic North and the South, there were the Middle Belt people like the Tiv, the Jukun, the Berom and the Igala. The Islamic North hasn't always had a good relationship with these people - the North raided the Middle Belt to procure slaves to sell to the Arabs.

The most important Islamic figure in Islamic Northern Nigeria was Uthman Dan Fodio. Dan Fodio established the Sokoto Caliphate in the late eighteenth century / early nineteenth century. Before Dan Fodio, Islam tended to be restricted to the courts of Muslim rulers and the serfs practiced the local animist religion. Dan Fodio's greatest legacy was the jihadist tradition / less tolerant form of Islam practiced in Northern Nigeria. (In Nigeria's South West, the Islamic tradition is much more tolerant, because it was introduced by traders from the Mali Empire - you have many instances of Muslim wives / Christian husbands and vice versa in South West Nigeria).

The British originally ruled two colonies - the Southern protectorate and the Northern protectorate. In 1914, Lord Lugard (who cut his teeth in India), amalgamated the North and South protectorates and his fiance coined an expression "Niger Area" - Nigeria to describe this colony.

Northern Nigeria was ruled very differently from South Nigeria. Paradoxically, British rule enhanced the power of Northern emirs (local sheiks), the reverse was the case in the South. Lugard adopted a system called indirect rule from India. Under indirect rule, the British ruled through the established traditional structures. It worked splendidly in Northern Nigeria, but it had disadvantages:

1. Western education was not encouraged, because missionaries were the primary agents. Naturally, the emirs were not too happy with that.
2. The British put non-Muslims under emirs, this led to tensions.
3. At the end of the colonial era, the North was far behind the South, and that gap is yet to be bridged.

The British still needed low-level clerks, administrators and railway workers, so they had to bring them over from the South to the North. Their higher living standards, attracted jealousy and the 1953 riots in Kano was one of the first outbursts. There was also another movement led by Aminu Kano, which opposed the entrenchment of the existing class structure by the British and argued for the emancipation of the talakawas (commoners).

Nonetheless, in 1960, this entire area was granted independence by the British. A northerner was selected as prime minister, the president came from the South East, and the South West formed the opposition. A disagreement between the Obafemi Awolowo (the leader of the opposition) and Akintola (the Western premier), triggered Nigeria's first crisis. This led to a coup by officers from the South East in 1966. The major victims of the coup were from the South West and the North (Ahmadu Bello, the major Northern figure). This triggered a counter-coup by Northern Military officers, led by Murtala Muhammad and Yakubu Gowon. After the coup succeeded (so the story goes in Southern Nigeria), Murtala Muhammad hoisted the flag of Arewa and was ready to secede from the rest of Nigeria (until Western diplomats and Oil and Gas executives convinced him to do otherwise).

The Northern counter-coup in 1966 triggered a violent reaction in the North against South Easterners (Igbos). These massacres led to the Nigerian Civil War, in which most of Nigeria's future military rulers played a role.

These men (Obasanjo, Babangida etc) , may be the last true believers in Nigeria's unity.

Oil was discovered in the Niger Delta in 1956. In the run up to independence, the Willink Commission made recommendations on how the Niger Delta should be treated in an independent Nigeria - they were never followed. Western Oil companies began their operations with scant regard for the environment - massive gas flaring and oil spills were neglected. The killer blow was the Land Use Act of 1978. Government had the right to confiscate your land and hand it over to an Oil and Gas company for an oil mineral lease or an oil prospecting lease and compensate you only for the cost of your property on the land (i.e. 0.50 naira for every stick of cassava).

The difference in living standards between employees of Oil and Gas companies and natives triggered resentment (especially when they had to deal with gas flares 24/7). Saro-Wiwa protested against this in Ogoniland, he was hanged by Abacha, the Kaiama declaration was written in 1999, and hell was let lose.

Meanwhile, the Northern elite continued to consolidate their hold on power (Nigeria was ruled by Northerners from 1960 - 1976, 1979 - 1999). More money was allocated to Northern Nigeria than to Southern Nigeria, and while this was resented by the South, it did not lead to any appreciable improvement in the standard of living of Northerners. The talakawa agitated, but they were put down by the Northern elite.

In 1982, our oil revenues could no longer meet our budgetary commitments (we learned very bad habits during the oil boom era). Austerity measures were introduced, and that led to a military coup in 1983 and another in 1985. Nigeria was forced to adopted IMF/World Bank structural adjustment programmes (Reagan/Thatcher reigned supreme then). We were mandated to cut spending on social programmes and embark on privatisation. The result was a hollowing out of the middle class and a massive drop in quality of health care / education.

(Sometimes, I wonder why our politicians listen to the West. In the 70's it was all about industrial development and infrastructure. In the 80's it was reduce spending on social programmes. Today it is increase spending on social programmes and some BS on millennium development goals. Anyway that is a topic for another day).

Sharia has always been a hot topic in Nigeria (at least since the constituent assembly in the 1970's). The British left a confused situation in which elements of Sharia were recognised and the role of Muslim traditional rulers were affirmed. The level of dissatisfaction with the Northern elite pushed them to adopt Sharia in twelve Northern States as from 1999 (more in theory than in practice). It was a cynical ploy to cement their relationship with the masses and to distance and distinguish themselves from the Christian-led Obasanjo regime.

However, there are true believers like Boko Haram, who can see beyond the cynicism of the North elite and want the real thing. They have the support of the masses and for the first time in my life, Nigeria's Northern elite are being openly and violently challenged by their people.

Boko Haram is many things, it is a:

1. Jihadist movement/terrorist organisation.
2. A vehicle to challenge the dominance of the Northern elite.
3. A source of identification for many unemployed, under-educated Northern Muslim youths.

These factors will put pressure on the Northern elite to dissociate/distance themselves from Abuja and hence impact on Nigeria's unity.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram taps into another source of tension, the rapid expansion of Evangelical Christianity in Northern Nigeria. This has led a series of conflicts and the prospect of the World's first Evangelical Christian militant organisation Akwat Akwop.

In summary, Nigeria is a mess. There is a steady supply of unemployed young men with grievances. I can see a proliferation of militant groups in the future (Christian militants in the Middle Belt, "Biafran" militants, Yoruba militants, Niger Delta militants). It will only take one successful Boko Haram operation in Lagos to trigger an ethnic war between the Hausa-Fulani / Kanuri and the Yoruba.

We need to sit down and renegotiate the basis for nationhood - and time is running out fast, a generation with no memories of the Nigerian Civil War is assuming positions of leadership.

KingJaja
11-19-2011, 06:58 PM
When they are not committing human rights abuses, they collect bribes from poverty stricken Nigerians and share the proceeds after a day's work.

http://www.nigeriapolicewatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Screen-shot-2011-11-18-at-9.44.01-AM.png

One begins to understand the level of animosity against the Nigerian police. The army is not far behind.

The other big news topic in Nigeria is Government's desire to remove the subsidy on petroleum products early next year. If it goes ahead there is potential for strikes and violence.

Despite the fact that we are Africa's largest oil exporter, we have no fully functional refinery, so government has to subsidise petroleum product importation. Nigeria spends $350 million monthly on subsidising the purchase of petroleum products (the distribution and sales of these products are handled by a cartel of businessmen with links to ex-generals and politicians).

Petroleum products impact seriously on the economy. Since electricity generation is low, the common man and businesses depend heavily on petrol/diesel driven generators. There is also a trust deficit between Government and the Nigerian people - the Nigerian Government has zero credibility.

The other news topic that got my attention was the threat by Nigerian veterans to blow up oil pipelines in response to non-payment of pension arrears.


Members of the Nigerian Military Pensioners Welfare Association (NMPWA) in the South-South region have threatened to blow up pipelines and disrupt the peace of the area if the Federal Government refuses to commence the payment of the 53 per cent pension arrears owed them for four years now.

In a statement signed by its secretary, Captain Don Pedro, and made available to LEADERSHIP in Port Harcourt, the group said the Federal Government was taking the veterans for a ride.

It said; “We have been trained in the art of warfare, we have knowledge of combat of any sort, and we can blow oil pipelines in the region and cripple the economy of the nation. We want to say that we can be more deadly than Boko Haram, so we should not be taken for granted.

“We are seriously disturbed that the federal government would acknowledge early this year that military pensioners are being owed 53 percent arrears only for nothing to be done or heard about it.


This threat points to a few uncomfortable facts:

1. The currency of power in Nigeria is money and violence, you use one to get another. The Niger Delta Militancy taught Nigerians that the only way to force the government's / oil companies hand was the threat of violence. The sudden urgency to address the appalling literacy rates in North-East Nigeria would not have happened without the threat of Boko Haram.

The percentage of children between six and 16 who have never attended school is highest in the North-east with states like - Borno 72 per cent, Yobe 58 per cent, Bauchi 52. You can work it out, Borno State (where 72% of children have not attended school is the epicenter of Boko Haram).

There are other groups willing and able to use violence to draw attention to their grievances. Expect them to appear in future.

2. The rank and file of the Nigerian Army are treated poorly and they mete out their frustration on the general public. Our news media tell stories about army pensioners who die while waiting in line to collect their pensions at Abuja. That is hardly the recipe for an effective fighting force.

I write on this blog not because I am an experienced military person, but because I am a relatively well informed Nigerian, deeply concerned about the situation in Nigeria and I believe that some powerful people in Washington might read this blog.

Nations must be allowed to evolve at their own pace. When a state of affairs simply becomes unsustainable and a ruling elite begins to lose legitimacy, then outside intervention may be more counter-productive than beneficial. This process is occurring in slow-motion in Nigeria.

Cast your minds back, if the United Nations intervened during the French Revolution, what impact would it have had on Western Civilisation and the course of history? Outside intervention, if not carefully managed, offers a veneer of legitimacy to an illegitimate ruling elite (Mubarak, Ben Ali, Saleh).

Enlightened self-interest, not altruism is the greatest driver of societal change. When the elite realises that the costs of bad governance greatly outweigh the benefits, then change happens. Western Governments are notorious for truncating this process (especially for friendly regimes, like Nigeria). When Western Governments promise to defray the costs of public goods like health care and education, there is very little motivation to push for internal reform.

Something is going on in Nigeria, it has the potential of being bigger than the Arab Spring - what it is, we don't know. What we know is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable.

Terrorism is not really Nigeria's problem.

Chowing
11-19-2011, 08:58 PM
Sorry about that. You gave me the impression you were of Nigerian decent. My bad !

Were you or are you military ? Don't have to answer that, but it helps me gauge your view a bit better.

Here's where we differ in opinions... The US Military is not some kind of humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag when all other (diplomatic) solutions fail. The vast majority of our military is not trained for nor equipped to perform humanitarian missions (meandering around unarmed with the expectations of maintaining security must be the dumbest thing I have ever set my eyes on). It was never our job and we (most of us) honestly suck at it.


I have never served in the military, in fact I am a child of the 1960s and a teenage and early 20s during those years in California. I am shaped by my experience back then, the being involved the rest of my life (I am not 63) in Africa.

I would not say we are differ on this issue. The military is not the best group to offer humanitarian aid.

Chowing
11-19-2011, 09:07 PM
What productive measure sans US Military are you referring to? What's the mission objective, goals, exit strategy, estimated price, etc.? We now have over an inch of paper and congress has yet to approve FY12 despite the fact we are well into the first quarter in the middle of nowhere, and my people are not being paid, there's no fuel, and I have ceased ops. Sorry for blowing off steam with you, but that's exactly where my teams are right this second and I'm over 7,000 miles away. Hmmm, wonder why we stay so long ?




Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.

If we continue to be involved just for our own interests, we will continue to see opposition to us increase. Granted, we should not be involved in a popularity contest, but we should understand why people are increasing distrusting our motives.

I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.

Chowing
11-19-2011, 09:20 PM
Boko Haram is many things, it is a:

1. Jihadist movement/terrorist organisation.
2. A vehicle to challenge the dominance of the Northern elite.
3. A source of identification for many unemployed, under-educated Northern Muslim youths.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram taps into another source of tension, the rapid expansion of Evangelical Christianity in Northern Nigeria. This has led a series of conflicts and the prospect of the World's first Evangelical Christian militant organisation Akwat Akwop.

We need to sit down and renegotiate the basis for nationhood - and time is running out fast, a generation with no memories of the Nigerian Civil War is assuming positions of leadership.

Thanks for the great background summary. Very helpful.

I agree (as if that matters) with your assessment of what "Boko Haram is" today.

The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.

Chowing
11-19-2011, 09:27 PM
Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page/us-embassy-nigeria-denies-special-forces-deployment-against-boko-haram

Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.

KingJaja
11-19-2011, 10:46 PM
The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.

The clashes are both religious and ethnic. For example, the Miss World riots of 2002 and the Danish cartoon riots had of a more religious tint. I still recall an extremely bloody set of riots in Northern Nigeria in reaction to the visit of a prominent German evangelist. Religion is as much a form of identity as ethnicity.

[PS: Think about it, you are young, penniless and homeless. You leave your village heading for the township looking for a better life. Who provides you with support? Hint: it's not the Government or Western NGOs. It is either members of your ethnic group or (increasingly) your Church or Mosque. In Lagos, I see young, ambitious, but penniless men from Northern Nigeria sleeping in Mosques. If you are a Christian and you run into serious financial trouble and your family cannot help you out, the tendency is to seek help from fellow parishioners in Church - Churches have benevolence departments to handle that sort of thing.

Many of you wonder why Africans take religion very seriously.]

If you are a Christian and you live with assertive form of Islam, the tendency is for you to be more assertive in your profession of Christianity.

Ethnicity plays a role, but a complex mixture of ethnicity and religion contributes to these clashes.

For example, in Jos, the crisis is between ethnic Berom and Hausa-Fulani settlers. The Berom are predominantly Christian and are farmers, while the Hausa-Fulani are predominantly Muslim and are cattle herders. However, the Hausa-Fulani are not the only settlers in Jos - this fact normally gets lost in most analyses. The crisis in Jos was triggered by gerrymandering to favour the Hausa-Fulani (depends on whose side of the story you listen to). But gerrymandering would not have been necessary if the Hausa-Fulani and Berom shared the same religion.

Not much is known about the Akwat Akwop group and they are yet to do anything spectacular, but this group is dominated by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt. Both the Niger Delta Militants and the supporters of Biafra have openly supported the aims of this group. (The Nigerian Army recruits heavily from the Middle Belt, so they are likely to have a strong base of ex-military men).

A potential alliance between Akwat Akwop, the Niger Delta Militants and Biafra supporters seems logical, since all of these groups see Nigeria's core Muslim North as a common enemy.

The map below, shows the distribution of votes during Nigeria's last election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/world/11/nigeria_election_toggle_maps/img/nigeria_elect_624_2011_6.gif

The states in green voted for a Christian (Jonathan), while the States in blue (which correspond to the states that implement Sharia) voted for his opponent, a Muslim.

Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).

KingJaja
11-19-2011, 11:00 PM
Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page...nst-boko-haram

Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.

A few things.

1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.

2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.

3. Very little progress has been made in addressing the real causes of grievance (justice for murdered innocents, unemployment, illiteracy etc).

4. Afghanistan and Iraq show that the US Army isn't really very good at this sort of thing. The US Army tends to go with a one-track this is Al Qaeda mentality.

5. You are not dealing only with a terrorist group you are dealing with an insurgency with a deep well of support among the locals. Boko Haram's main targets have been Police, Military and Government installations. They also act as local Robin Hoods - they've been known to rob banks and distribute the money to the needy.

6. Finally, there is no indication in more serious media that the story is true.

JMA
11-20-2011, 04:13 AM
Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).

Yes, the two nations division is the best solution. Why should one forcefully maintain the arbitrary colonial boundaries?

Hold a referendum now and be done with it.

JMA
11-20-2011, 04:16 AM
1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.

Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?

KingJaja
11-20-2011, 07:56 AM
Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?

One of the options is state/local police. Police recruitment is centrally managed and many policemen are deployed to areas other than their states of origin. This impacts on their ability to gather intelligence.

In addition, local administrators do not have control over the police, control rests at the center. If local policing is adopted, more competent local administrators will be better able to improve the security situation, attract more investment, improve employment and thus reduce the levels of violence.

On the flip side, local police could be easily used by politicians as private armies.

There is little room for Western intervention in all this. The Nigerian state needs to make some very painful readjustments or stand the risk of dissolution. This is why I keep insisting that the US Government is badly misreading the situation in Nigeria.

Dayuhan
11-20-2011, 11:30 AM
One begins to understand the level of animosity

In the country where I live they tell a joke about the police. A man from New York, a man from Berlin, and a man from Manila are discussing the police in their countries.

The man from New York claims that in his city, when a crime is committed, the police arrive in five minutes

The man from Berlin counters that in his city, when a crime is committed the police are there in three minutes.

The man from Manila smiles and says "in my city, when a crime is committed, the police are already there."


Nations must be allowed to evolve at their own pace. When a state of affairs simply becomes unsustainable and a ruling elite begins to lose legitimacy, then outside intervention may be more counter-productive than beneficial. This process is occurring in slow-motion in Nigeria.

I agree. Has anyone seriously proposed outside intervention in Nigeria?

I've often said that the Philippines, where I live, is not a failed state, but rather a functioning state with a failed government. It sounds from what you say that Nigeria is in a similar state. In such cases it is often easy to propose broad solutions, like dividing a country, but while these are easy things to say on an internet forum, they are very difficult things to make happen.

Here, the fundamental conflict is between a fragmented and frustrated populace and a feudal elite that seems unable to grasp that their traditional prerogatives are fundamentally incompatible with either economic progress or political stability. That feudal elite is itself fragmented and the fragments are at odds with each other... but even when they pay lip service to the need for change, they are unwilling to surrender the privileges that make change impossible. Is this also the case there?


When the elite realises that the costs of bad governance greatly outweigh the benefits, then change happens.

Here the elite has realized this, but change has not happened. Again, the reason is that while the elite see the advantage of good governance, they can't bring themselves to pursue good governance, because the crux of the transition to good governance would be their need to surrender the prerogatives that sustain their position. This they are unwilling to do, so they embrace cosmetic reforms that are never implemented, mouth whatever development rhetoric is fashionable that day, make brave speeches... and maintain the status quo.


Something is going on in Nigeria, it has the potential of being bigger than the Arab Spring - what it is, we don't know. What we know is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable.

Unfortunately an unsustainable state of affairs can endure for a remarkably long time.


Terrorism is not really Nigeria's problem.

Nor is it our problem, though we have a fair bit of it. We also have a long-repressed and marginalized Muslim population - in the south, not the north - that has been in varying states of rebellion for many decades. Here, too, the peripheral contacts between this rebellion and AQ have been blown out of proportion, and forced into the context of a "war on terror" where they do not really belong.

Of course there are as many differences as similarities, but it is interesting to see how these situations recur in very different places in very different parts of the world.

Dayuhan
11-20-2011, 11:36 AM
Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.

Easy to say, difficult to change.


I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.

I agree that no US Government response is needed, nor do I believe that any US Government response would be productive.

I realize that it is fashionable to blame the "American financial elite" for practically everything, but I also do not see that they have any useful role to play in Nigeria, or for that matter in most developing-world political and economic impasses.

Stan
11-20-2011, 12:11 PM
Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.

Hmmm, I think we have sufficient disparity at home and should be concentrating on our problems and national debt. The average US citizen doesn't realize that we have unrest and terrorism in our back yard. We could bring all our diplomats and soldiers home and baton down the hatches (close the borders), and just watch the fireworks on TV, but that's not our style.


If we continue to be involved just for our own interests, we will continue to see opposition to us increase. Granted, we should not be involved in a popularity contest, but we should understand why people are increasing distrusting our motives.

I know of no other country that gets involved without their own interests at heart. Not One, unless you have one in mind. I also don't know of any country that seems able and ready to get involved. We are so in debt yet we still find ways of doling out cash to someone other than our own. That's friggin' strange in my book. The Chinese have a far simpler solution - Give the dictator 100K and they do what they want to the extent they want to. Agreed ? (Dictator) Yes, Agreed. When the country goes deep into upheaval (it would have anyway) the Chinese were already prepared for that outcome and just split (but the debt is not forgiven). Care to know how many and much we we have forgiven over the years ? Scary stuff.


I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.

We actually agree (with your first sentence). Now why (other than Bill Gates) would the financial elite just send money to country(ies) that already possess some of the world's richest minerals ? How are we going to financially empower the Nigerians and not get the hierarchy involved ?

Of course only the Nigerians really understand their internal problems, but how do we propose to inject cash that will not look like it came from America and a guarantee that this will empower the Nigerian public ? I am not trying to be sarcastic, but you are not in the military and I imagine never served in Africa so I am wondering about your plan.

davidbfpo
11-20-2011, 12:12 PM
The original title was 'Nigeria & Islam: terrorism plus' and has today been re-named 'Nigeria: the (wide) context for violence'.

Clearly there is more than Boko Haram, terrorism and Islam involved.

KingJaja
11-20-2011, 09:43 PM
I agree. Has anyone seriously proposed outside intervention in Nigeria?

I've often said that the Philippines, where I live, is not a failed state, but rather a functioning state with a failed government. It sounds from what you say that Nigeria is in a similar state. In such cases it is often easy to propose broad solutions, like dividing a country, but while these are easy things to say on an internet forum, they are very difficult things to make happen.

Here, the fundamental conflict is between a fragmented and frustrated populace and a feudal elite that seems unable to grasp that their traditional prerogatives are fundamentally incompatible with either economic progress or political stability. That feudal elite is itself fragmented and the fragments are at odds with each other... but even when they pay lip service to the need for change, they are unwilling to surrender the privileges that make change impossible. Is this also the case there?

What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?

The Philippines and Nigeria are very different. Nigeria is an artificial state, the Philippines is not - it is an old state with a Catholic identity. The Philippines had a couple of hundred years of Spanish rule to forge a common identity and a common experience of resistance to US occupation in the early 19th Century. On the other hand, the concept of "Nigeria" was created by the British only in 1914.


Here the elite has realized this, but change has not happened. Again, the reason is that while the elite see the advantage of good governance, they can't bring themselves to pursue good governance, because the crux of the transition to good governance would be their need to surrender the prerogatives that sustain their position. This they are unwilling to do, so they embrace cosmetic reforms that are never implemented, mouth whatever development rhetoric is fashionable that day, make brave speeches... and maintain the status quo.

Earlier in the year the home of the Emir of Kano was burnt to the ground. The convoy of the governor of one of the North-Eastern states was bombed a few days ago. I cannot count the number of politicians in Northern Nigeria who have been attacked.

Secondly, you cannot predict behaviour. Probably, Filipinos are more docile, less violent and have an escape valve (11 million Filipinos in the diaspora). Nigerians are a very violent people and anyone who doesn't take that into account over the next thirty years is playing with fire.

I'm not too old (I am in my thirties), but I really fear the generation behind me (late teens and twenties). They are much less respectful of authority and more willing to challenge the status quo than were are. They (especially those of them from the Muslim North) have been inspired by the Arab Spring.

For a full thirty-five years after independence, it was unheard of for Nigerians to take up arms and challenge (a) the Nigerian Police Force and (b) the Nigerian Army. The Niger Delta changed everything, and today Nigerian security services are being challenged all over Nigeria (Niger Delta, Middle Belt, North-East Nigeria).

In 1998/99, I witnessed a breakdown of law and order in Lagos and the South East. In both cases, the local administrators did not call on the State Security Services to restore law and order - they contracted the services of ethnic militias, who administered instant justice.

Nigeria's has a rapidly growing population (2% per annum) - which means that by 2050, our population might reach 300 million. We are a single commodity economy (we depend only on Oil and Gas) and our petroleum reserves will dwindle rapidly mid century. Within the next few decades, the pressure to diversify the economy will increase exponentially and politicians will be under immense pressure to make that happen (remember that the Philippines is a much more diversified economy than Nigeria). Enlightened self-interest will take over.

There are also two Nigerias emerging: There is a Nigeria in the South where female literacy rates above 70% are not uncommon and a Nigeria in the North where female literacy rates are as low as 25%. These differences show up in disparities in per capita income. Part of the anger in Northern Nigeria stems from the inability of Northern politicians bridge these gaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/world/11/nigeria_election_toggle_maps/img/nigeria_literacy_624.gif

(Note: The statistics for Yobe and Borno State are wrong, they are much lower - Yobe State 27.5% and Bornu State 20.9%).

These differences were pointed out by the former Central Bank Governor in 2008: (Before Carter Ham and the US National Security establishment frantically started for looking for links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)


Central Bank (CBN) Governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, has blamed northern elites and their leaders for the crippling poverty ravaging the northern states, just as the Minister for Special Duties, Elder Godsday Orubebe, said that the problem in the Niger Delta should be blamed on lack of political will on the part of past leaders.

Prof Soludo, who spoke while delivering a lecture entitled "Banking Reforms in Nigeria" at the 2008 Arewa Inspirational Leadership award in Kaduna yesterday said that with the level of affluence in the north, the region has no reason to lag behind other parts of the country in terms of developmental efforts.

He said that the lack of interest displayed by northern elites towards the socio-economic development of the region is largely responsible for the "crippling poverty" and acute under development in the area.

The CBN governor, whose utterances drew loud applause from the audience at the lecture, argued that this lackadaisical attitude of the Northern elites and their lack of interest towards investing in viable economic ventures is responsible for the region trailing others in almost every aspect of life.

He said Nigeria has become a Northern phenomenon as each of the 19 states in the region exhibited incidences of poverty ranging between 60 and 95 percent, adding that the crippling poverty in the region had assumed the dimension of a national crisis just like the problems in the oil-rich but troubled Niger Delta region.

He stressed that only an inclusive developmental process in which the North could compete favourably with the other parts of the country on the same pedestal would ensure that Nigeria realized its dream of being part of the 20 largest economies in the world by the year 2020.


There is also a religious dimension to this disparity, from the Pew Forum:


According to a Pew Forum analysis of the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, the percentage of women of childbearing age who cannot read is three times as high among Muslims (71.9%) as among non-Muslim Nigerians (23.9%). Muslim women of childbearing age are also much less likely to have received a formal education than are other women in the country; 66.0% of Muslim women have no formal education, compared with 11.2% of non-Muslims. Only about 3% of Muslim women in Nigeria have attended college or university, compared with roughly 14% of non-Muslim women.

According to the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, Muslim women in Nigeria marry more than three years earlier on average than non-Muslim women (15.9 years for Muslims, compared with 19.5 years for non-Muslims). Also, 81.3% of Muslim women say they do not intend to use birth control, compared with 51.2% of non-Muslim women.

Geographically, Muslims are more concentrated in the northern part of Nigeria and Christians in the southern part, while the mid-section of the country is more religiously mixed.

If these disparities are not dealt with within this decade, the gulf between North and South, Muslim and Christian will further widen, leading to more social tension. Northern Nigeria is in an increasingly precarious situation, with little or no economic activity to speak of, crippling poverty, creeping desertification and widespread illiteracy.There is intense pressure on Northern politicians to perform.


This will also put more pressure on the South to support the North economically. Naturally, the South may not want to do this and may want to opt out of that arrangement. Recently, we were treated to the unfortunate spectacle of internal deportation - In order to rid Lagos of beggars, the Lagos State Government deported several beggars (mainly of Northern origin), back to Northern Nigeria.

We are already beginning to see flickers of enlightened self-interest from Southern politicians. For example, the Lagos State Government is working hard to improve the transportation situation.

The governor inspecting rolling stock in Canada

http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/6910/56781120.jpg

Lagos light rail under construction

http://i249.photobucket.com/albums/gg220/paddymax_2008/DSCN0309.jpg

Something similar is happening is Rivers State (one of the Oil producing states in the Niger Delta). (PS: The Niger Delta militancy is popular here because it forced the Federal Government to drastically increase revenue allocation to the Niger Delta. Some governors have chosen to invest the money wisely, others have simply embezzled it).

Dayuhan
11-21-2011, 12:46 PM
What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?

The question was whether anyone has seriously proposed intervention in Nigeria, not in Africa. Has there been any such proposal, on even the most hypothetical level? I haven't heard one, but I might have missed something.

Hard to suggest, really, that the raison d'etre of AFRICOM is intervention. The US has these commands for every part of the world, but that doesn't mean they're planning worldwide intervention... they are just administrative divisions. The actual force structure and resources of AFRICOM suggest strongly that intervention is not the intention: how much intervention are you going to do on a continent the size of Africa with 2000 people based in Stuttgart?


Probably, Filipinos are more docile, less violent and have an escape valve (11 million Filipinos in the diaspora). Nigerians are a very violent people and anyone who doesn't take that into account over the next thirty years is playing with fire.

Actually we have two of the most intractable insurgencies in the world... all kinds of people are violent. I'd agree, though, that the potential for violence in Nigeria seems very high. I do not, however, think there;s anything much any outside power can or should try to do about it. The solution, if there is to be one, has to be internal.



I'm not too old (I am in my thirties), but I really fear the generation behind me (late teens and twenties). They are much less respectful of authority and more willing to challenge the status quo than were are. They (especially those of them from the Muslim North) have been inspired by the Arab Spring.

For a full thirty-five years after independence, it was unheard of for Nigerians to take up arms and challenge (a) the Nigerian Police Force and (b) the Nigerian Army. The Niger Delta changed everything, and today Nigerian security services are being challenged all over Nigeria (Niger Delta, Middle Belt, North-East Nigeria).

Sometimes somebody has to challenge the status quo - the people who benefit from the status quo aren't going to give up their privileges unless they're forced to - and if nobody listens to peaceful challenges, the next ones will be violent. Maybe that next generation will force some changes, though the process isn't likely to be pretty, especially if those who benefit from the status quo dig in and fight.


Nigeria's has a rapidly growing population (2% per annum) - which means that by 2050, our population might reach 300 million. We are a single commodity economy (we depend only on Oil and Gas) and our petroleum reserves will dwindle rapidly mid century. Within the next few decades, the pressure to diversify the economy will increase exponentially and politicians will be under immense pressure to make that happen (remember that the Philippines is a much more diversified economy than Nigeria). Enlightened self-interest will take over.

Yes, we're a diversified economic basket case :wry:. One hopes that enlightened self-interest will take over someday in both places, rather than the decidedly unenlightened self-interest that prevails today. In Nigeria's case one hopes it happens before oil runs out, as it's easier to diversify if you have some capital to invest!


These differences were pointed out by the former Central Bank Governor in 2008: (Before Carter Ham and the US National Security establishment frantically started for looking for links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)

Are they really looking? It's quite possible that they might, and it wouldn't be the first time... but there's been very little political interest in boots-on-ground military intervention in Africa since the 1993 mess in Mogadishu, and I doubt that it's something anyone on the US side really wants to do.

Stan
11-21-2011, 01:57 PM
What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?

Jaja,
If you're referring to the 2008 war gaming at Carlisle you should probably check a few US sources because the stories/rumors/versions are quite different from that of the Concerned African Scholars. Just a suggestion. I also have a hard time weighing the stories and I have access to AKO, etc.

War Gaming and Bilateral military exercises are not a preparatory stage for intervention and I might add, those war games and military exercises were taking place before AFRICOM was around.

Someone sent me this link (http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14783)but failed to read the last line.


Daniel Volman is director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, DC and a member of the board of directors of the Association of Concerned Africa Scholars. He has been studying U.S. security policy toward Africa and U.S. military activities in Africa for more than 30 years.

Well of course it jibes with all the other stories - they are one in the same.

Similar to the Ivory Coast, Obama is not going to intervene without ECOWAS and the AU. If only one African Leader's voice (President John Mills) shut down action proposed, then I can't see it happening. Nigeria would literally have to request assistance (not that we don't know that that has occurred).

Chowing
11-21-2011, 04:00 PM
The first thing you need to understand about Nigeria, is that it is an artificial construct, created by the British to reduce administrative expenses.

The area called Nigeria has been inhabited by several ethnic groups with very different cultures, over a period of thousands of years. In Nigeria's South West, the Benin Empire and the Yoruba Kingdoms were predominant. (A distinguishing characteristic of the Benin Empire was that they refused to sell slaves to Europeans). In the South East, the Igbo were organised into villages, and in most cases they didn't have central leadership figures (they tended to be more consensual). There are other ethnic groups in the South that shared some of the characteristics of the Igbo and the Yoruba.
[/I]

Having worked in Benin for 9 years, and fluent in one ethnic group's language (Adja), I understand to some extent the influence of ethnicity in the region. For anyone working in or advising on terrorist activities in the region, they must have an understanding of ethnicity and worldview of those they are working among. Of course, Africans in the region have the best understanding of that, outsiders can and should learn more.

I wonder what type of cultural training US troops, especially officers receive who are working or monitoring the region?

Chowing
11-21-2011, 04:14 PM
A few things.


2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.



Agreed. And, in my opinion, the presence of US soldiers would further distract southerners and security forces from finding a way to dialog with Boko Haram or at least to work on solving the social/economic situation. The dissonance must continue to raise until Nigerians creatively come up with a way to alleviate the suffering. Outsiders may be able to help but only when asked for.

Chowing
11-21-2011, 04:47 PM
Hmmm, I think we have sufficient disparity at home and should be concentrating on our problems and national debt. The average US citizen doesn't realize that we have unrest and terrorism in our back yard. We could bring all our diplomats and soldiers home and baton down the hatches (close the borders), and just watch the fireworks on TV, but that's not our style.

Nor should it be our style. We care, we just struggle with how to effectively help. The issues and circumstances are so complex. This forum is one of many that need to take place so that thinkers from within and without can dialog and advise. We have to give come up with a solutions, for us and them.

I know of no other country that gets involved without their own interests at heart. ... It is in our own interests that Nigeria comes up with a solution to the disparity in their country. There is oil there and other mineral present in the country, if not solution comes to the growing problem, you will see our "petroleum elite" lobbying for the US to come up with what would be an even worse situation for the Nigerians - US military involvement.


We actually agree (with your first sentence). Now why (other than Bill Gates) would the financial elite just send money to country(ies) that already possess some of the world's richest minerals ? How are we going to financially empower the Nigerians and not get the hierarchy involved ?

Of course only the Nigerians really understand their internal problems, but how do we propose to inject cash that will not look like it came from America and a guarantee that this will empower the Nigerian public ? I am not trying to be sarcastic, but you are not in the military and I imagine never served in Africa so I am wondering about your plan.

I did serve in Africa, 25 years of my life. I have been involved in Africa for close to 40 years. We Americans want to see quick change and a quick return for our efforts. That is just not going to happen. Knowing that should not weaken our commitment to assist, but we must listen to Africans, learn from them.

I know all of this is easier said than done. Commitment and trust, not blind trust, but informed trust is important.

Chowing
11-21-2011, 05:31 PM
This story from Reuters shows just how enmeshed the Boko Haram movement is at every level of Nigerian society. Nigeria security says politicians sponsor Islamists http://mobile.reuters.com/regional/article/idAFL5E7ML2T320111121?edition=af

Stan
11-21-2011, 06:17 PM
Having worked in Benin for 9 years, and fluent in one ethnic group's language (Adja), I understand to some extent the influence of ethnicity in the region. For anyone working in or advising on terrorist activities in the region, they must have an understanding of ethnicity and worldview of those they are working among. Of course, Africans in the region have the best understanding of that, outsiders can and should learn more.


Totally agree with you and there are quite a few of us that have your time and understanding in the region. This however is not the norm; some people don't want to be there and their assignment is just as much a pain in the Alpha for them as it is for the rest of us trying to comprehend and make a difference. Don't sell us all short too soon.


I wonder what type of cultural training US troops, especially officers receive who are working or monitoring the region?

That would depend on so many factors. We discussed the FAO program and its benefits and drawbacks on the AFRICOM and FAO threads. In the last 15 years the military has made a concerted effort to prepare people for assignments abroad. In addition to being expensive, it is time consuming and not everyone is considered for intensive pre-deployment training. Let's face it, some people will never pick up a foreign language and there has to be a bar.

What were you provided in the way of cultural training before your first day on the continent ? I learned very little other than some language training to prepare me for Zaire. Cultural training takes place with the culture in question. We are not going to find it in Berlin or Texas !


Nor should it be our style. We care, we just struggle with how to effectively help. The issues and circumstances are so complex. This forum is one of many that need to take place so that thinkers from within and without can dialog and advise. We have to give come up with a solutions, for us and them.

Hmmm, I think we have sufficient disparity at home and should be concentrating on our problems and national debt. The average US citizen doesn't realize that we have unrest and terrorism in our back yard. We could bring all our diplomats and soldiers home and baton down the hatches (close the borders), and just watch the fireworks on TV, but that's not our style.

I hope you're right and the decision makers are taking notes. I have some serious doubts and have some stories to support that doubt.


I did serve in Africa, 25 years of my life. I have been involved in Africa for close to 40 years. We Americans want to see quick change and a quick return for our efforts. That is just not going to happen. Knowing that should not weaken our commitment to assist, but we must listen to Africans, learn from them.

I'm happy to hear that your concerns and thoughts are based on experience and not some blogger's dreams. I knew there was something more than just a blogger with you :cool:


I know all of this is easier said than done. Commitment and trust, not blind trust, but informed trust is important.
I'm only going to repeat this for the 100th time - The US Military do not determine their destination or mission. The US Administration does. "Informed" would then assume the information is in fact the real deal and not some politically-prepared statement. Even the military can't fix that snafu.

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 06:35 PM
Jaja,
If you're referring to the 2008 war gaming at Carlisle you should probably check a few US sources because the stories/rumors/versions are quite different from that of the Concerned African Scholars. Just a suggestion. I also have a hard time weighing the stories and I have access to AKO, etc.

War Gaming and Bilateral military exercises are not a preparatory stage for intervention and I might add, those war games and military exercises were taking place before AFRICOM was around.

Someone sent me this link but failed to read the last line.

Once again we go into the problem of perception, and the inability to counter negative messages. Everyone in Nigeria is of the opinion that US wants to intervene in Nigeria to protect its interests in the Oil and Gas Industry. There are several versions of the story all over the web, each with a different twist.

There has been no rebuttal or explanation from the US Government, so the assumption is that that is the USG is complicit. Another version of the story with additional twist:


The US will likely favor such a breakup for obvious reasons- the current leader of Nigeria thumped his finger in the US nose, clearly rejecting the installation of US AFRICOM military command in Nigeria. Nigeria’s government has also of recent signed deals with Russia and Iran for major resource, military and power(Nuclear generation) mutual ventures. This alliance possibly does not sit well with the US. In addition, Nigeria has been promoting development, not by serving US interest but by cooperation’s with so-called third world Nations like Brazil.

Then we go again to the perception problem:


Thus, when General Ward appeared before the House Armed Services Committee on March 13, 2008, he cited America's growing dependence on African oil as a priority issue for Africom and went on to proclaim that combating terrorism would be "Africom's number one theater-wide goal." He barely mentioned development, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping or conflict resolution.

And in a presentation by Vice Admiral Moeller at an Africom conference held at Fort McNair on February 18, 2008 and subsequently posted on the web by the Pentagon, he declared that protecting "the free flow of natural resources from Africa to the global market" was one of Africom's "guiding principles" and specifically cited "oil disruption," "terrorism," and the "growing influence" of China as major "challenges" to U.S. interests in Africa.

Since then, as General Ward has demonstrated in an interview with AllAfrica, he has become more adept at sticking to the U.S. government's official public position on Africom's aims and on its escalating military operations on the African continent.

These are no longer the eighties or nineties. Africans have more access to information than they did in the past. The problem is that the USG and US diplomatic community hasn't evolved to appreciate the new reality. Anyway, how do you expect them to when the average USG operative in Africa is increasingly isolated from the local environment, hiding in secluded fortress-like embassies.

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 06:42 PM
This story from Reuters shows just how enmeshed the Boko Haram movement is at every level of Nigerian society. Nigeria security says politicians sponsor Islamists http://mobile.reuters.com/regional/a...121?edition=af

Have you heard about the 3Gs of African politics? Guns, goons and gold.

Interesting to note that the Niger Delta militancy really took off after the 1999 elections - former political thugs/muscles for hire decided to apply their skills elsewhere.

There is also evidence of links between politicians in the Niger Delta and Niger Delta militants - both parties have use for each other.

Chowing
11-21-2011, 07:13 PM
Have you heard about the 3Gs of African politics? Guns, goons and gold..
Nope, but it makes sense, not only in Africa



There is also evidence of links between politicians in the Niger Delta and Niger Delta militants - both parties have use for each other.

I saw to day on twitter that some are claiming that Boko Haram is itself a de-facto political party. I know twitter is not the best place to get scholarly information, but it does give one a sense what people are saying. As you said in a previous message many Nigerians (African everywhere) are on the net. In fact, as a side note, Africans are using mobile devises in creative, very useful ways.

Stan
11-21-2011, 07:24 PM
Once again we go into the problem of perception, and the inability to counter negative messages. Everyone in Nigeria is of the opinion that US wants to intervene in Nigeria to protect its interests in the Oil and Gas Industry. There are several versions of the story all over the web, each with a different twist.

I have to disagree. Dictators thumping fingers at the thought of an installation or any other gesture is again all about perception and not viewed as something serious. It only cements the current naive thoughts in American and precludes dialog. I'm not the oil and gas expert herein, but the numbers reflected on the internet suggest Nigeria's percentage of all imports to the US are 8%. I'm certain the current administration doesn't like the hint of Iran or Russian getting ahead, but then, we're back to perception, or better stated, misconception when playing by American rules on the African soccer field.


The US will likely favor such a breakup for obvious reasons- the current leader of Nigeria thumped his finger in the US nose, clearly rejecting the installation of US AFRICOM military command in Nigeria. Nigeria’s government has also of recent signed deals with Russia and Iran for major resource, military and power(Nuclear generation) mutual ventures. This alliance possibly does not sit well with the US. In addition, Nigeria has been promoting development, not by serving US interest but by cooperation’s with so-called third world Nations like Brazil.

The text is intriguing, but would appreciate a link to the article please :)


There has been no rebuttal or explanation from the US Government, so the assumption is that that is the USG is complicit. Another version of the story with additional twist:

Part of the Public Affairs Officer's job is to NOT do the "he said she said" because that often leads to greater confusion and people are human and prone to mistakes. This obviously creates perception by not countering negative message nor promoting positive messages. If things could be so simple.


These are no longer the eighties or nineties. Africans have more access to information than they did in the past. The problem is that the USG and US diplomatic community hasn't evolved to appreciate the new reality. Anyway, how do you expect them to when the average USG operative in Africa is increasingly isolated from the local environment, hiding in secluded fortress-like embassies.

Would have to agree. Won't get far hiding in the fish bowl.
Operatives ? Catchy title just doesn't fit 99% of the personnel at post. Now we would be in the eighties and nineties.

Chowing
11-21-2011, 07:28 PM
Totally agree with you and there are quite a few of us that have your time and understanding in the region. This however is not the norm; some people don't want to be there and their assignment is just as much a pain in the Alpha for them as it is for the rest of us trying to comprehend and make a difference. Don't sell us all short too soon.

Being on here just a few days has given this "former hippie" a better understanding and respect for some of you in uniform. I did not realize, my bad, that any US military folks had any long term experience in the region.



That would depend on so many factors. We discussed the FAO program and its benefits and drawbacks on the AFRICOM and FAO threads. In the last 15 years the military has made a concerted effort to prepare people for assignments abroad. In addition to being expensive, it is time consuming and not everyone is considered for intensive pre-deployment training. Let's face it, some people will never pick up a foreign language and there has to be a bar.

I will take a look on that thread. Just one more question on that point. Who does the training, military personnel, experienced civilians, or Africans?


What were you provided in the way of cultural training before your first day on the continent ? I learned very little other than some language training to prepare me for Zaire. Cultural training takes place with the culture in question. We are not going to find it in Berlin or Texas !

Well, back in 1972 when I first went to Kenya my training was only in cultural anthropology and innovative change. As you say, I picked up almost all of my understanding on the field. I became fluent in Swahili and Kalenjin. Language is a HUGE plus in understanding people and being understood and taken seriously.



I hope you're right and the decision makers are taking notes. I have some serious doubts and have some stories to support that doubt.


Are there any diplomats on this forum?

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 07:31 PM
I saw to day on twitter that some are claiming that Boko Haram is itself a de-facto political party. I know twitter is not the best place to get scholarly information, but it does give one a sense what people are saying. As you said in a previous message many Nigerians (African everywhere) are on the net. In fact, as a side note, Africans are using mobile devises in creative, very useful ways.

There is a perception among the Christian/non-Muslim population that some elements of the Northern elite support Boko Haram. (As a means to destabilise the Southern-led government at Abuja).

It's not just Boko Haram. After a Southerner (Christian) became president in 1999, there was a flurry of announcements declaring Sharia rule in Northern states (as Muslim governors in the North competed for who would be declared as "defender of the faithful, against infidels").

President Obasanjo regarded the declaration of Sharia law, not the Niger Delta as his greatest challenge.

Finally, as literacy levels in the South are much higher than in the North, the twitter messages will tend to reflect the views of the South.

Stan
11-21-2011, 07:53 PM
Being on here just a few days has given this "former hippie" a better understanding and respect for some of you in uniform. I did not realize, my bad, that any US military folks had any long term experience in the region.

Glad that we can see the world through clear glasses. The hippie era was not a bad one and many of us were envious. We just ended up on the other side of the USG :eek: Becoming an Africa Hand (not sure if I like that description) has its blessings but that does not mean everybody will listen. There's about 15 of us herein. Watch out ;)


I will take a look on that thread. Just one more question on that point. Who does the training, military personnel, experienced civilians, or Africans?

All of the above and then some. Even some anthropologists are involved depending on the training and post abroad.



Well, back in 1972 when I first went to Kenya my training was only in cultural anthropology and innovative change. As you say, I picked up almost all of my understanding on the field. I became fluent in Swahili and Kalenjin. Language is a HUGE plus in understanding people and being understood and taken seriously.


Yep, hard to comprehend culture without language. I ended up with Lingala as the majority of the Zairian Army spoke Lingala.


Are there any diplomats on this forum?

Yes and no. Is a diplomat one who has a diplomatic passport or is declared a diplomat ? At one time I had both, but had no clue what all that actually meant and just tried to do my job. SIGH

Seriously, there are several herein in many forms. My description may not be accurate as it is but my opinion ;)

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 07:59 PM
The link is from allAfrica.com: http://allafrica.com/stories/200908140153.html.


Part of the Public Affairs Officer's job is to NOT do the "he said she said" because that often leads to greater confusion and people are human and prone to mistakes. This obviously creates perception by not countering negative message nor promoting positive messages. If things could be so simple.

Great, the best way to play on African soil with Africans is by American rules. I have a feeling that since the US withdrew from Africa after the fall of the Soviet Union, they haven't really come back.

Another variation of the same story: US Army Prepares for Nigeria’s Possible Break-up (2015) - http://www.newsrescue.com/2009/08/us-army-prepares-for-nigeria%E2%80%99s-possible-break-up-2015/

Then there are Hollywood movies like "Tears of the Sun" - central theme is US intervention in Nigeria.

http://www.haro-online.com/stuff/tearsof1.jpg

http://www.haro-online.com/stuff/tearsof2.jpg

Opinion shapers will spin messages from the Internet and combine them with images from Hollywood to create a narrative that will eagerly devoured by the gullible.

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 08:19 PM
Well, back in 1972 when I first went to Kenya my training was only in cultural anthropology and innovative change. As you say, I picked up almost all of my understanding on the field. I became fluent in Swahili and Kalenjin. Language is a HUGE plus in understanding people and being understood and taken seriously.

Did you hear that your Al Jazeera friends now plan to broadcast in Swahili? Seems like wherever Al Qaeda and the US Military go, Al Jazeera sets up shop.

http://dailymaverick.co.za/article/2011-08-02-a-brief-look-al-jazeera-to-open-swahili-service

Chowing
11-21-2011, 08:31 PM
Did you hear that your Al Jazeera friends now plan to broadcast in Swahili? Seems like wherever Al Qaeda and the US Military go, Al Jazeera sets up shop.

http://dailymaverick.co.za/article/2011-08-02-a-brief-look-al-jazeera-to-open-swahili-service

I had not heard that, but not surprised. The first place I go to look for African news, after allAfrica, is Al Jazeera. As you said in another message, they cover Africa more indepth, and I, too, watched them on DSTV.

Stan
11-21-2011, 09:13 PM
The link is from allAfrica.com: http://allafrica.com/stories/200908140153.html.

Thanks ! But, it is verbatim from the link I provided. With a slight twist, courtesy of the author, we have pure mayhem.


Great, the best way to play on African soil with Africans is by American rules. I have a feeling that since the US withdrew from Africa after the fall of the Soviet Union, they haven't really come back.

Regret any confusion, Jaja, but the "hit" was on America for trying to play by our rules on an African soccer field, and not the other way around.
I went into great detail on the AFRICOM threads regarding the fall of the Soviet Union and our "so called" departure. Could have been done better, but the new administration was not having anything to do with the Reagan and Bush era "blind and deaf human rights policies" and former dictators. The "departure" really only brought us back to what the guiding principles dictated in the first place. This is not to say the Africans were at fault and the Americans simply departed. If it could be so easy to describe :rolleyes:


Another variation of the same story: US Army Prepares for Nigeria’s Possible Break-up (2015) - http://www.newsrescue.com/2009/08/us-army-prepares-for-nigeria%E2%80%99s-possible-break-up-2015/

Oh, c'mon already - the link is pure propaganda and you just fed me a dissertation on how much the Africans have evolved and use the internet. One of my jobs was to read the local papers nearly every morning and tell my boss what I thought (as he could not read Lingala nor fully comprehend the cultural spin generally put on all the articles from underground sources). This is just that, propaganda addressing a naive public based on one article (that literally says nothing) and wire feed after wire feed.


Then there are Hollywood movies like "Tears of the Sun" - central theme is US intervention in Nigeria.

I would almost be tempted to respond, but you did a perfect job below. So, part of informing the public is to screw with their suspicions til they riot, pillage and plunder ? That won't accomplish much.


Opinion shapers will spin messages from the Internet and combine them with images from Hollywood to create a narrative that will eagerly devoured by the gullible.

I can't imagine what I would think reading our thread, had I never stepped foot in Africa. It's no wonder our public are in the dark. I'd make half of the rich and film industry go there for six months on my wages with the expectation that they solve all your problems and learn a foreign language in 13 weeks, all the while performing every task to perfection without the remote risk of being misinterpreted. Good luck with that, Dude.

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 11:08 PM
Oh, c'mon already - the link is pure propaganda and you just fed me a dissertation on how much the Africans have evolved and use the internet. One of my jobs was to read the local papers nearly every morning and tell my boss what I thought (as he could not read Lingala nor fully comprehend the cultural spin generally put on all the articles from underground sources). This is just that, propaganda addressing a naive public based on one article (that literally says nothing) and wire feed after wire feed.

You don't understand where I was coming from. In my dad's generation it was Radio Peace and Progress, Moscow on one side and BBC, VOA on another. Today, there are a plethora of actors, each with an agenda. That story will be warmed up, redressed and served to the public this time next month. And it will be eaten up.

Don't get me wrong, Africans are by and large, better informed. However, they are more willing to believe stories that reinforce their fears. (Just like a certain segment of the US population considers Muslims, the United Nations and the Council on Foreign Relations as pure evil).

The advent of the Internet has not mitigated these fears, but amplified them.

Are all these people naive? Not in every sense of the word.

My point is that just as the US was successful in getting its message out during the Cold War era, it should make just a little more effort to get its message out today. Can the US live with the present state of affairs? Yes. Presently as things stand, is there an overwhelming strategic case for the US to be more involved in the public diplomacy arena in Africa? Not really, the US has a lot of money and money has a voice of its own.

It is a nice "to-have" and good investment for the future.

KingJaja
11-21-2011, 11:25 PM
Have you guys watched this BBC documentary "Welcome to Lagos"?

Helps you understand Nigeria better.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHKLIpz9F5c

KingJaja
11-22-2011, 06:23 AM
SECURITY agents last night arrested a Senator who a suspect named as a Boko Haram sponsor.
Senator Ali Ndume (Borno), who is being held by the State Security Services (SSS), is likely to face trial today in Abuja.
The Nation learnt also that 13 suspects have been arrested by the Joint Task Force in connection with the recent bombings in Damaturu, Yobe State.
Ndume will be arraigned in court with some members of the sect already in SSS custody, sources said.
A source, who pleaded not to be named for security reasons, broke to The Nation news of the senator’s arrest at about 10.20pm.
He said: “He is presently being detained in SSS custody, pending his arraignment in court.
“Based on the confession of some Boko Haram suspects in custody, we have interrogated Ndume and he has made a statement accordingly. We are going to charge him to court on Tuesday (today) with some of the suspects in our custody.

Reinforces the fear that certain elements with the Northern elite are behind Boko Haram. The North could come out from this entire Boko Haram crisis, weakened.

Chowing
11-22-2011, 06:11 PM
Have you guys watched this BBC documentary "Welcome to Lagos"?

Helps you understand Nigeria better.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHKLIpz9F5c
I just finished watching the entire first episode. I have live 25 years of my life in Africa. Most of it (23 yrs) in very rural villages among pastoralists in Kenya and agriculturalists in Benin. In those years I came to understand that the poorest of the poor, those who have the toughest life are, for the most part, those who live in the cities.

These people, as you say, despite their hard work, are easily swayed by the blame game that can come from Islamicists, Christians, or politicians of any ilk. As long as poverty reigns, they will be swayed from one side to the other. That is not say that they do not think for themselves....as if we in the West think for ourselves jaja.

I have often said to my spoiled university students in the West, the only difference, the only REAL difference between me and these people is that I came out of my mother's womb in nice hospital in L.A. California and they came out in a mud hut. I had absolutely nothing to do with it. I did nothing to earn it (not really sure it is a blessing sometimes).

It is interesting to read some of the comments at the sites where the film is hosted. Some of the more educated and members of the elite families take real exception at such a portrayal of Nigerians. In reality, the life of those in dump is not theirs.

After being involved in Africa for so many years, the predicament of those in poverty effects me more than ever. Yet, I will not let it stymie me, I will find ways to act. Ways in which help people and hinder terrorists.

Thanks for the link, KingJaJa.

Dayuhan
11-22-2011, 11:06 PM
Once again we go into the problem of perception, and the inability to counter negative messages. Everyone in Nigeria is of the opinion that US wants to intervene in Nigeria to protect its interests in the Oil and Gas Industry. There are several versions of the story all over the web, each with a different twist.

There has been no rebuttal or explanation from the US Government, so the assumption is that that is the USG is complicit. Another version of the story with additional twist:


My point is that just as the US was successful in getting its message out during the Cold War era, it should make just a little more effort to get its message out today. Can the US live with the present state of affairs? Yes. Presently as things stand, is there an overwhelming strategic case for the US to be more involved in the public diplomacy arena in Africa? Not really, the US has a lot of money and money has a voice of its own.

It is a nice "to-have" and good investment for the future.

I really don't want to see the US Government trying to deny or refute every rumour that flies around. It's pointless: anyone who believes the rumour won't believe the denial, and the stream of rumours is endless. It also plays into the hands of the propagandists... as they say, "let's make the bastards deny it". Better to ignore it.

Actions speak louder than words. The best way to debunk the rumour that the US wants to intervene in Nigeria is to not intervene in Nigeria. Of course there will be provocations from people who want the US to intervene, but the only way to deal with that is to stay the course and follow the policy. If we establish a knee-jerk policy of allowing provocation to suck us into intervention, there will never be an end to provocation.

KingJaja
11-23-2011, 12:11 AM
I really don't want to see the US Government trying to deny or refute every rumour that flies around. It's pointless: anyone who believes the rumour won't believe the denial, and the stream of rumours is endless. It also plays into the hands of the propagandists... as they say, "let's make the bastards deny it". Better to ignore it.

Actions speak louder than words. The best way to debunk the rumour that the US wants to intervene in Nigeria is to not intervene in Nigeria. Of course there will be provocations from people who want the US to intervene, but the only way to deal with that is to stay the course and follow the policy. If we establish a knee-jerk policy of allowing provocation to suck us into intervention, there will never be an end to provocation.

I agree with you.

KingJaja
11-23-2011, 07:03 AM
A more astute observer of Nigeria, describes Nigeria's predicament. Once again, America's role should be to stand back and observe.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0349a7c-138b-11e1-9562-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1eVeMsaHf

davidbfpo
12-04-2011, 04:09 PM
Local residents talking to correspondents, so maybe not 100% accurate and I've checked other on-line news reports:
The attacks by suspected members of the radical Boko Haram sect, which also seriously injured two other policemen, happened in the town of Azare and lasted four hours, they said.

The attackers armed with heavy machine guns, threw explosives and fired heavy machine guns into a regional police headquarters and an adjoining police station in the town, setting fire to the buildings, residents said.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/8933950/Nigeria-al-Qaeda-group-bomb-attack-on-banks-kills-three.html

Wikipedia for a map and background:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azare

Stan
12-04-2011, 04:44 PM
Nigeria al Qaeda group bomb attack on banks kills three....
by Our Foreign Staff

Seems a bit of creative journalism at hand. The very same scenario took place in 91 killing the French Ambassador to Zaire. As you pointed out, the objective was money.

A nice twist also is the use of the word "explosives" and "unexploded bomb canisters" vs military ordnance.

KingJaja
12-04-2011, 09:21 PM
I don't doubt the story. Boko Haram has been known to rob banks to fund its operations.

However, we haven't established that Boko Haram is an Al Qaeda group.

KingJaja
12-06-2011, 10:44 AM
NIGERIANS holding the short end of the stick seem near their wits end now. The unraveling ogre of anomie on all fronts is enervating to say the least. Armed banditry and insecurity, unemployment and poverty, poor power supply and low capacity utilisation by industries, kidnapping for ransom and trepidations over fuel subsidy removal, all and more combine to set both the rulers and the ruled on edge.
Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido, in an interview with The Guardian, put it succinctly: “There is a disconnection between the people and the leadership, hence the leaders have no capacity to motivate or to inspire the people or restore confidence. Because of this disconnection, our institutions have collapsed. I thought it was bad enough that our public institutions alone were collapsing, but with the story of the failure of banks making the rounds, I am now alarmed.”
But Lamido also said: “If the average Nigerian wants the roads repaired, power supply regular, he will need to make some sacrifices. The choice is ours. The President is talking to people, political leaders, and opinion molders about the reality of the situation.”
In fact, The Guardian can confirm that the there are several high-level official meetings going on, especially at the Presidency, to square up to these challenges nationwide.
Some of the critical stakeholders engaged in the current efforts to stem the nation’s slide include security experts, religious and political leaders as well as civil society groups and media chieftains.
However, in a development that seems to be the first breech of the strained dam, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) yesterday called out it members in universities nationwide for “a total, comprehensive and indefinite industrial action from today.”
There was palpable fear yesterday that the ASUU strike might open a floodgate of similar actions by other trade unions in the country.

http://www.informationnigeria.org/2011/12/anxiety-mounts-over-insecurity-poverty-others.html

The air is pregnant with fear. The possibility of a hike in the cost of living triggered by the removal of fuel subsidies is heating up the atmosphere. The Government's financial position is weak and we are saddled with 43 million unemployed youth and 1.8 million entering the labour market every year.

Nigeria is in trouble.

KingJaja
12-07-2011, 08:48 AM
I'm not sure whether I should post this in this thread, seems slightly tangential. But it illustrates the life of an enlisted soldier in the Nigerian Army. He discusses his hopes, his frustrations, the relationship between enlisted soldiers and officers, tribalism, low literacy levels and Nigeria's performance in peace keeping missions.

The account may be biased, but helps you see what goes on behind the scenes.


Reading the thoughts of Retired Generals on the Army can be very misleading as the thoughts and opinions they expressed are self-serving and very far from the reality on the ground. I also laugh anytime I hear Generals crow about the 'combat-readiness' of the Nigerian army or the armed forces in general. Maybe the Generals are parroting what they have been told by their subordinates but truth be told, Generals also passed through the system and are aware that they are being fed lies but because of the need for self-preservation and 'espirit de corps', they prefer not to rock the boat because any investigation of the rot in the armed forces will tarnish the careers and names of all the officers (both retired and serving) in the armed forces above the rank of Lieutenant. This article will be in three parts. The first part deals with a brief description of life before joining the army as a recruit, the journey to Depot Nigerian army in Zaria and life as a typical recruit. The second part deals with life as a soldier while the third part provide an insight into the peacekeeping missions from the perspective of soldiers who bore the brunt of these missions and not from the perspective of senior officers who sat in their offices, lived in mansions and generally enjoyed themselves and became richer by short-changing soldiers at every turn. This part is where I will explain the beginning of the end of my military career and my final disengagement.

Bill Moore
12-07-2011, 09:01 AM
KingJaja, I think this series of articles is very relevant and of interest. Can you please post the link to the article?

KingJaja
12-07-2011, 09:03 AM
Part 1 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/guest-articles/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspe-6.html

Part 2 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-2.html

Part 3 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/olaide-omideyi/nigerian-army-reality-as-seen-from-a-soldiers-perspective-part-3.html

Part 4 is here: http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

Part 5 is here:http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10574&Itemid=55

Stan
12-07-2011, 09:28 AM
Thanks -- A very interesting read.

Of special note on how one's ethnic background in Africa can be paramount or to one's very detriment.

KingJaja
12-07-2011, 09:38 AM
Nigerian Navy personnel brutalizing a young woman in broad daylight in Lagos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHdkyvn41us

Nigeria's problems are way beyond what AFRICOM can solve and you can appreciate why many of us grow up to hate the military (Nigerian, American, French or from wherever).

KingJaja
12-07-2011, 09:43 AM
Thanks -- A very interesting read.

Of special note on how one's ethnic background in Africa can be paramount or to one's very detriment.

Most Sub Saharan African militaries are to varying degrees, ethnic militias. That guy wrote about the Nigerian military when Babangida and Abacha ( Northerners) were in charge. So the military was heavily skewed towards Northern Nigeria then.

The Nigerian army has some really bad traditions and the Nigerian army is one of the better militaries south of the Sahara.

There is a lot going on, but the present situation of things is not sustainable. We'll see how it all ends.