UK 'may have 40-year Afghan role'

[davidbfpo]

This milestone has been passed now, with three Paras killed in a suicide bombing and much comment / reporting in the UK press.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/frontline/2095470/British-death-toll-in-Afghanistan-reaches-100.html - which includes 'Not a single British soldier has been fatally shot for almost nine months'.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/frontline/2101959/What-the-Army-faces-in-Afghanistan.html

There's also a photo gallery: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2095153/Roll-call-of-British-soldiers-killed-in-Afghanistan.html

How this milestone will play out with the public is unknown.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Following on from the BBC Panorama programme, November 5th 2007, which was on this thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4262

Last night Panorama provided an interesting short update on how the soldiers feel now: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/7437580.stm

davidbfpo

[Ken White]

for the links.

[davidbfpo]

Issued yesterday to coincide with the Trooping the Colour ceremony: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/15/do1511.xml

The Welsh Guards colour was being trooped and there was footage of a group temporarily assigned to the Royal Irish, in Afghanistan.

Nothing startling in the article, but some may like it.

davidbfpo

[SWJED]

British Operations in Helmand Afghanistan
by Dr. Daniel Marston, Small Wars Journal

British Operations in Helmand Afghanistan (PDF Article) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-temp/98-marston.pdf)

I’m going to try to provide an overview of British operations, called HERRICK, in Helmand (HLD) province, Afghanistan, over the last couple of years. The situation in southern Afghanistan (RC South) is widely considered to be worsening, with the Taliban controlling entire districts and launching major attacks. The British, along with the rest of our allies, have faced heavy criticism for their prosecution of the war in the south. I will look at how the British have adapted to changing conditions, and their understanding and application of COIN principles. My assessment is not official in any way, and any errors of fact or interpretation are purely mine. This assessment is drawn from the many conversations which I have been privileged to have with commanders from brigadier down to platoon level on all British operations, as well as from field reports and visits with units.

[davidbfpo]

Under the headline 'Grim reality of life beyond Helmand' the (UK) Sunday Times has this report, subtitled 'British officials are pleased with their reconstruction. Our correspondent finds little for them to crow about':

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4882416.ece

It should be read alongside a longer article on the military campaign, under the headline 'Relentless Taliban just keep coming' and subtitled:
As their gruelling tour of duty in Afghanistan ends, men of 2 Para tell of relentless battles with an enemy that simply doesn’t know when he is outgunned

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4882417.ece

Includes remarks made by the Brigadier in charge of the UK brigade in Helmand, who are about to leave.

Note one platoon in 2 Para of thirty men had six fatal casualties in their tour; a one in five ratio does not bode well - in Afghanistan and here IMHO.

Posted in another thread too.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

This is the BBC's title for a short article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8191018.stm based on a far longer article, interviewing the General Sir David Richards, the UK's new top soldier (CGS), in The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6788062.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1

It will take time. This is nation-building – not the starry-eyed type, but nation-building nonetheless. It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key, and there has to be a strong reconciliation element to the latter. The Army’s role will evolve, but the whole process might take as long as 30 to 40 years. There is absolutely no chance of Nato pulling out.

Later I believe strongly that it is winnable. Demanding, certainly, but winnable. And when people say, ‘How can you use the term “win”?’ I retort, ‘Well, I will certainly know if we have lost.’ Can you imagine the intoxicating effect on militants if we were defeated? Can you be certain there would not be an export of terrorism to the streets of London? It’s a risk we should be very wary of taking... But, of course, the end will be difficult to define; it won’t be neat and clear-cut like the end of some old-fashioned inter-state war might have been. And, as I have said many times, everyone involved needs to realise it will take a long time and considerable investment. We must remember, though, that we are not trying to turn Afghanistan into Switzerland.

How the UK public react to such a statement by the CGS, starting a three year tour, is a moot point. Let alone the government or opposition, who for very different reasons see Afghanistan differently.

How would the US public react to a forty year presence?

We have discussed before the Western public and political impatience for long wars. A factor the Taliban appear very well aware of.

The latest BBC radio news had a very short item on the interview and a renewed call by a Labour backbench MP for other NATO nations to share the burden. A so far largely a forlorn hope.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

In this hour long, regional BBC-Wales documentary they report on a Welsh (armoured) regiment in Afghanistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00gd41j/Frontline_Afghanistan/ The programme is available till 1214hrs Monday 10th August 2009.

Some interesting footage; note filmed in March 2009 before the US surge into Helmand Province.

At the end when asked "can we win..is it worth it?'" a NCO (troop commander) says 'No' and "history shows we cannot". This portion starts at 56:28.

davidbfpo

[frank]

No UK government -or the UK public as such- is willing to stay decades in Afghanistan.
They remember their failurs from the past in that region.

[milnews.ca]

No UK government -or the UK public as such- is willing to stay decades in Afghanistan.
They remember their failurs from the past in that region.
I think most taxpayers in any western democracy, unless convincingly, consistently and repeatedly sold on the benefits, would balk at committing troops/aid for a generation - especially when politicians doing the selling are thinking in a "next election" timeframe.

Not knocking democracy, but I see this as the fundamental tension at play: governments looking for and offering solutions that get "results" (and you can spend a pretty long thread debating "results" vs. "success" vs. "victory" when defining exit strategies) in the short-ish term for situations that need commitment in the loooooooooooooooong term.

[Jedburgh]

UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, Eighth Report of Session 2008–09:

Global Security: Afghanistan and Pakistan (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmfaff/302/302.pdf), Report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence.

Report

Conclusions and recommendations

1 Introduction
2 The role of the international community in Afghanistan
3 Where Afghanistan is now: an assessment
4 Pakistan’s strategic importance and role in relation to Afghanistan
5 The Obama plan: addressing previous failings?
6 The UK’s mission in Afghanistan
7 The UK’s new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan: a way forward?
8 Future prospects: towards a political settlement?

Maps
Annex: Foreign Affairs Committee visit to Afghanistan and Pakistan 26 April–1 May 2009
Glossary of Terms
Formal Minutes
Witnesses
List of written evidence

[davidbfpo]

In a BBC News report on 200+ deaths in Afghanistan: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8203975.stm there is a mild rebuke to General Richards recent '40 years' comment by the UK Secretary of Defence:

But, referring to comments by incoming head of the army Gen Sir David Richards, he said: "The notion that we are going to be in Afghanistan in 30 to 40 years in anything like the form we are now is ludicrous."

davidbfpo

[William F. Owen]

But, referring to comments by incoming head of the army Gen Sir David Richards, he said:

"The notion that we are going to be in Afghanistan in 30 to 40 years in anything like the form we are now is ludicrous."


Hmmmm.... Is it not wonderful that we have politicians, gifted with such an ability to see the future? I remember being told in 1980, that Northern Ireland deployments "could not go on for another 10 years."

[Mark O'Neill]

I know similar stories have appeared here, this one is British and the young soldier has been nominated for the Commenwealth's highest military medal, the Victoria Cross. The last winner was L/Cpl. Beharry, in Iraq.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/09/nhero109.xml

There is an option to post comments on the Daily Telegraph's website.

davidbfpo

Trooper Mark Donaldson VC, Australian Special Air Service Regiment, won a VC for actions in Uruzgan Province, Afghanistan on 2 Sep 2008. Story from the Australian Defence Force Website (http://www.defence.gov.au/special_events/TPR_markDonaldson.htm ) follows:

For most conspicuous acts of gallantry in action in a circumstance of great peril in Afghanistan as part of the Special Operations Task Group during Operation SLIPPER, Oruzgan Province, Afghanistan.

Trooper Mark Gregor Donaldson enlisted into the Australian Army on 18 June 2002. After completing Recruit and Initial and Employment Training he was posted to the 1st Battalion, The Royal Australian Regiment. Having successfully completed the Special Air Service Selection Course in April 2004, Trooper Donaldson was posted to Special Air Service Regiment in May 2004.

On 2 September 2008, during the conduct of a fighting patrol, Trooper Donaldson was travelling in a combined Afghan, US and Australian vehicle convoy that was engaged by a numerically superior, entrenched and coordinated enemy ambush. The ambush was initiated by a high volume of sustained machine gun fire coupled with the effective use of rocket propelled grenades. Such was the effect of the initiation that the combined patrol suffered numerous casualties, completely lost the initiative and became immediately suppressed. It was over two hours before the convoy was able to establish a clean break and move to an area free of enemy fire.

In the early stages of the ambush, Trooper Donaldson reacted spontaneously to regain the initiative. He moved rapidly between alternate positions of cover engaging the enemy with 66mm and 84mm anti-armour weapons as well as his M4 rifle. During an early stage of the enemy ambush, he deliberately exposed himself to enemy fire in order to draw attention to himself and thus away from wounded soldiers. This selfless act alone bought enough time for those wounded to be moved to relative safety.

As the enemy had employed the tactic of a rolling ambush, the patrol was forced to conduct numerous vehicle manoeuvres, under intense enemy fire, over a distance of approximately four kilometres to extract the convoy from the engagement area. Compounding the extraction was the fact that casualties had consumed all available space within the vehicles. Those who had not been wounded, including Trooper Donaldson, were left with no option but to run beside the vehicles throughout. During the conduct of this vehicle manoeuvre to extract the convoy from the engagement area, a severely wounded coalition force interpreter was inadvertently left behind. Of his own volition and displaying complete disregard for his own safety, Trooper Donaldson moved alone, on foot, across approximately 80 metres of exposed ground to recover the wounded interpreter. His movement, once identified by the enemy, drew intense and accurate machine gun fire from entrenched positions. Upon reaching the wounded coalition force interpreter, Trooper Donaldson picked him up and carried him back to the relative safety of the vehicles then provided immediate first aid before returning to the fight.

On subsequent occasions during the battle, Trooper Donaldson administered medical care to other wounded soldiers, whilst continually engaging the enemy.
Trooper Donaldson’s acts of exceptional gallantry in the face of accurate and sustained enemy fire ultimately saved the life of a coalition force interpreter and ensured the safety of the other members of the combined Afghan, US and Australian force. Trooper Donaldson’s actions on this day displayed exceptional courage in circumstances of great peril. His actions are of the highest accord and are in keeping with the finest traditions of the Special Operations Command, the Australian Army and the Australian Defence Force.

[davidbfpo]

Mark,

Thanks for the extensive update on the Australian VC.

I read Johnson Beharry's auto-biography recently and sat back in astonishment at what he did on two days. His citation is on: http://www.victoriacross.org.uk/bbbeharr.htm

davidbfpo

[Mark O'Neill]

Mark,

Thanks for the extensive update on the Australian VC.

I read Johnson Beharry's auto-biography recently and sat back in astonishment at what he did on two days.

davidbfpo

The depth of commitment and courage displayed by men such as these is truly amazing,

regards,

Mark

[milnews.ca]

Looking for something else, I spotted this little chart (http://is.gd/4jrZT) in the UK's Hansard from earlier this week:

http://milnewsca.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/chart-tics-helmand-jun06-feb09.jpg?w=300&h=268

Some caveats apply, of course:
Without undertaking a detailed assessment of each engagement, it is not possible precisely to define in every case whether an attack was aimed at UK forces, at our ISAF partners, or against Afghan units. Data is therefore collected on the number of incidents involving ISAF forces in Helmand without attempting to identify the nationality of the forces actually being attacked. The environment in which forces are operating makes it extremely difficult precisely to distinguish between incidents initiated by insurgent forces and those initiated by ISAF. This data is based on information derived from a number of sources and can only be an estimate

Still, it looks like the numbers are steadily rising.