View Full Version : South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

M-A Lagrange
09-20-2009, 10:36 AM
South Sudan is now at a turning point. After a UN supported war, the country to be will experience elections in 2010 and a referendum on its independence in 2011.
For the UN, the direction is simple: now it’s time for development, stabilisation in other words.
For the Sudanese, the direction is less clear.
First of all, neither Khartoum nor Juba has interest in going for elections and even less for the referendum. Since last year, South is experiencing a backfire of ethnical violence. Every fingers are pointing to Khartoum, the big bad wolf. But a closer look to those violence shows that reality, as usual, is less simple.
- All clashes started when the SPLM, the political wing of SPLA, started to crack down. The creation of SPLM-DC, a dissident wing of SPLM seems to have been the fire starter.
- All clashes involved, at the early stage, Dinka, the SPLA major ethnic group, and former SAF supporter ethnic groups.
- If Khartoum has advantages to destabilize GoSS, SPLA also has good reasons to undermine the civil SPLM administration. The soldier time is ending and most of them may loose their place in the sun with the elections.
- After nearly 50years of war, traditional social mechanisms are completely dysfunctional. The youth is actually marginalised by the actual in power “mature”/pre elders’ class. As war has destabilise economy and put on their knees most of the population, the actual ruling age class is trying to recover by increasing dotes and traditional transactions. This leads to a de facto marginalisation of the youth that takes guns to recover what they are denied: the right to marry and be a man.
- Education in rural areas is extremely low among men and even lower among girls and women.
- The infamous LRA, the main source of organised violence, has been pushed away in neighbouring countries where they have a safe even in an inaccessible zone. They are now split in dozen of small groups hunted down by at least 3 armed forces.
- Guns and ammunitions are flying around all over the place. Some say it is Khartoum while others are saying, well Khartoum is just fuelling the fire and tacking advantage of the incapability of the GoSS to stabilise and impose law and order.
- While the house is falling apart, GoSS and NPC are preparing for war as rumours of unilateral declaration of independence from South Sudan are becoming the official speech. Not even talking about Darfur.
- Regional powers are looking at South Sudan with a melted opinion on the creation of that non ruled country. Egypt is looking at containing the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist opposition while democratic change could just bring them to power in his old friend North Sudan. Kenyan and Ugandan governments and criminal groups are looking at South Sudan as an open land ready for colonisation.
- The population is 90% rural living on agriculture with average revenues far below poverty level.
The list is long and this one is not exhaustive.
The US interest are not low in Sudan and stabilizing South Sudan is highly necessary for the region.
Somehow, it does remind me other conflicts, without the presence of international forces. As the time is to stabilisation, South Sudan is an open air laboratory for it.
The question is simple: can we just do it? And if yes: how?

09-20-2009, 11:49 AM
Not the best indicator, but a year ago in part of the UK there was a move amidst the entire Sudanese expatriate community to promote the elections and referendum. Rivalry alas led to some disorder and to the local police's bemusement it was all settled quickly and the unity tottered on.

I don't know if this expatriate community has influence back home; nor does it appear to be financially empowered.

Optimimsm here is very different to on the ground reality.

My questions are: will the UN contributors keep their military and civil contingents in place if violence escalates? Does their mandate involve an active role?


Tom Odom
09-20-2009, 11:54 AM

as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.


M-A Lagrange
09-21-2009, 08:33 AM
Well, the question of an active participation of the UN in security, even for stabilisation, is a pure theoretical one. The South Sudan mission is under chapter 6, with the possibility if there is huge deterrence of the situation to use chap 7 privileges.
But the SRSG reaffirmed that up to now and for the future, UNMIS would implement a full chap 6. In clear a wait and see UN mission. The other problem is manpower. No one is really ready to provide more troops for SS.
Also, if things go bad, UN will redraw. And that is what the oldschool UN South Sudan wants: to go back to Naerobi and its confort (we are far from people centric concerns). Basically if violence errupt, UN loose their mandate...

So UN tried to push, and is still trying, SPLA to intervene into cattle wars. But as said previously, there are numerous question marks on the role of SPLA into starting the clashes. For me, it looks like calling the incendiary guy to play fireman.
On the other side, GoSS is trying hard (they say) to show they do have control. But… If they are not as bad as FARDC, they not too far from them in terms of discipline. Sometime, I even wonder what they have in mind. They contracted Kenyan army to train them. I have pretty low knowledge of Kenyans army records, but still, SAF in Khartoum must be laughing.

M-A Lagrange
09-24-2009, 01:38 PM
From Sudan tribune Who and what is militia in South Sudan? (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32544)

In Warrap state, according the media reports, heavy artilleries were used in fighting involving two Dinka clans. In Lakes state Agar-Dinka had recently attacked the SPLA convoy destroying a number of their vehicles using Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs). In Juba’s weapons search it is reported that even anti-air craft weapons plus RPGs, PKMs, etc., were found in the hands of civilians. So if the Lou-Nuer attackers used such type of weapons it should not be something new to any body.

also, I was talking with people from Human Rights about LRA. They asked me my solution. I answered: hunt them, kill them and when you catch one alive put him in jail.
their solution has been: let's go for reintegration...

Why can't we call a dog a dog? A civil war a civil war and not development with pre-election difficulties or war criminals just misleaded youth?

M-A Lagrange
10-07-2009, 06:39 AM
Sudan denies recruiting former US officials as lobbyists (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32703)

First announce with big highlights, North Sudan is denying now recruiting US officials as lobbyists. Well, once thing is sure, they need some in DC to be on their side.

Kiir accuses Sudan’s ruling NCP of arming Southern militias (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32682)

On the other side, What ever President Kiir may say, the last reports from Small Arms Survey are pointing out the leakage of weapons and ammunition from SPLA Stock piles. When you want your dog dead: accuse him of rage…

Bentiu clashes purely SPLA affair: official spokesman (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32666)And just to confirm that they are really far from capable, SPLA started to fight each others, turning a so called army of clowns, into a gang of militia.

But we are going for elections, free and fair…

Tom Odom
10-10-2009, 06:16 AM
And in the category of unending conflict

Africa’s Last, Next War (http://www.newsweek.com/id/216976/page/1)
Darfur isn't the worst crisis in Africa. In fact, it's not even the worst crisis in Sudan.

Arab horsemen toting Kalashnikovs provided by the Sudanese government thunder into a town. Women are raped in their huts. Men are gunned down as they flee for the bush, and children are packed off on the back of the raiders' horses while stolen cattle are herded away to be sold.

It's a scene that's become all too familiar for those who've followed the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur over the past five years. But this isn't Darfur circa 2005. It's any one of hundreds of villages in southern Sudan in the 1980s. Or 1992, or 1997, or 2003, and quite possibly 2010.

Before there were Save Darfur panties or (http://www.newsweek.com//frameset.aspx/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.foreignpolicy.com%2Fposts%2 F2009%2F07%2F23%2Fthongs_for_peace)George Clooney-led Darfur peace missions, Sudan was engulfed in a much longer and more destructive civil war between Khartoum's Islamist government and the country's animist and Christian south. The most recent phase of that war, from 1983 until 2005, killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years. Now, as U.S. attention wanders, it's coming back, and it will be worse than ever.

Good article and here is the money line:

But that argument assumes Sudan, as currently conceived, is a functioning state—which it isn't. Counting the two failed pacts signed with Darfur's Sudan Liberation Army and eastern Sudanese rebels in 2006, "the whole country has ceased to exist and become a collection of peace agreements," says Medhane Tadesse, an East Africa analyst for the Ethiopia-based Center for Policy Research and Dialogue. "And [Khartoum] knows these peace agreements won't be implemented.

M-A Lagrange
10-10-2009, 09:56 AM
What I love with South Sudan is that they fear nothing even being ridiculous. Now they remind USA that they have laws to pass for them to have their independency…
Is not a failed state we are building it is a silly joke.

SPLM diplomacy stresses importance of referendum law (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32729)
Saturday 10 October 2009 04:30.

October 9, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – With the Comprehensive Peace Agreement set to expire in January 2011, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement is trying to stress to the international community the importance of the terms of the proposed referendum law, which would govern the vote on popular determination in 2011.

When the CPA expires, the oil-sharing provisions will be terminated. Part of planning for the post-referendum period involves not only how to conduct the vote for separation, but how to run the oil economy after the outcome of the vote.

An official delegation was sent last week by the President of South Sudan, first to attend the UN General Assembly Meeting. The delegation was led by GOSS Minister of Cabinet Affairs, H. E. Dr. Luka Tombekana Monoja and the GOSS Minister of Regional Cooperation, H. E. Gen. Oyai Deng Ajak.

M-A Lagrange
10-13-2009, 02:37 PM
Sudan’s SPLM gives ultimatum to NCP over law package

Sudan ex-Southern rebel group today issued an ultimatum to its partner in the Government of National Unity (GoNU) saying the dominant National Congress Party (NCP) has week to agree on a number of draft laws.

The laws include referendum and national security laws hotly debated with the NCP for most of this year.

The SPLM submitted a memorandum to the parliament speaker saying that these laws need to be tabled within a week or else they will boycott the national assembly.

“We are going to boycott the whole parliamentary session if they do not respond positively,” Yasir Arman, head of the SPLM’s northern sector was quoted by Reuters.

“There is an absence of political will from the National Congress” he said.

The SPLM stressed that this is the last session of the parliament before the April 2010 elections and thus these laws need to be passed as soon as possible.

After reminding international community, they blame Khartoum. We are on the road to peace…

For sure!

And I forgot the most hilarious :Salva Kiir death rumour spead by... Whe don not know yet.

This joke gonna turn to disaster as sure it is a joke.
May be it is time to have a closer look at what is going on in South Sudan.
Or in 6 month, I believe the same old folks will meet in Juba to patch the disaster.

M-A Lagrange
10-14-2009, 06:45 PM
3. The UN Security Council needs to address the leadership failures in Juba. Currently, insecurity in the South is worse than Darfur because the leadership of the SPLM has no direction and crippled by corruption. The collapse of the CPA would trigger humanitarian crisis in the region and it’s the responsibility of the UN and the World Superpowers to take seriously leadership failure in the South as a threat to international peace.


This is may be the most clairevoyant comment I read about the situation in Sout Sudan stated by a South Sudanese body since I arrived.
But I still wonder how people from this place can come to the conclusion that they are not capable to rule the country they did fought for.

M-A Lagrange
10-22-2009, 06:40 AM
Japan is funding 2010 with 10 millions…

Is there a government in South Sudan

In fact, I suspect that whenever the SPLM SG talks about a failed state, he actually refers to GOSS. Honestly, at present, there is no establishment nearer to the description of a government in Juba except for a bunch of well fed and well protected individuals who go about their daily private business of looting public coffers!
What I like in that article is that they just point out what is reality. When can keep on blinding our selves but the hard facts are coming back to slap up back to the real world.

M-A Lagrange
10-23-2009, 01:31 PM
First the funny news from the failed country under construction. And then the bad sad news.

South Sudan calls on Khartoum to fully cooperate with US new policy
By James Gatdet Dak
October 22, 2009 (JUBA) – The Juba-based semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan has welcomed the new US policy on Sudan, and called on the Government of National Unity in Khartoum to fully cooperate with it.
In a press statement on Wednesday, Southern Sudan’s Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar said the policy was positive and would result to the lifting of sanctions imposed on the country by the successive American administrations if Sudan responded positively.
He said there would be no logic to continue with the sanctions in the country if the issues highlighted in the policy were addressed and fully resolved.
Sudan would also be removed from the list of the states that sponsor terrorism if it practically cooperates with the policy, he added.
Dr. Machar, who is also the Deputy Chairperson of the ruling party in the South, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) explained that the new US policy would help his government in trying to speedily curb the ongoing inter and intra-tribal fighting in the region.
SPLM and its peace partner, the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP), which signed the North-South peace deal in 2005, last week achieved a breakthrough by agreeing on the final draft bill for the conduct of the Southern Sudan referendum on secession in January 2011.
SPLM officials however accuse their northern partner of dragging its feet on implementing a number of other outstanding issues in the agreement, such as the North-South border demarcation and national security law needed for the conduct of the upcoming elections due in six months.
They also accuse them of arming certain groups to destabilize the region.
The US policy which calls for engagement with the Khartoum government spells out the use of ‘stick and carrot’ approach to deal with the regime.
It calls for a campaign of "pressure and incentives" to pressure Khartoum into pursuing peace in the troubled Darfur region, settling disputes with the semi-autonomous government in Southern Sudan and providing the United States greater cooperation in stemming international terrorism.
Washington said it would set strict time lines for the Sudanese President, Omer Hassan Al-Bashir to fulfill the conditions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Then the bad news

Gunmen abduct Red Cross worker in West Darfur
October 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — A French aid worker of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been abducted today by unidentified armed men near the capital of western Darfur state.
Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
He was travelling in one of two clearly marked ICRC vehicles when he was seized a few kilometers from the town.
The Red Cross said ignoring the identity of the abductors and their motivations. However the charity requested the help of the Sudanese authorities "and other parties with the aim of resolving the situation as swiftly as possible."
In Paris, the French foreign ministry confirmed the kidnapping and asked for an immediate and unconditioned release of the aid worker. It further said the French embassy in Sudan kept in close contact with ICRC.
Since the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court against the Sudanese President Omer Al-Bashir for war crimes last March, aid workers and peacekeepers face growing attacks and abduction.
Earlier this week two females aid workers were released by their kidnappers after more than three months and other tow UNAMID personnel are still under the hands of their abductors.
For all the soft rebel with a cause: Men keep on fighting!
I am sure all SWJ supports you and like to see you free asap. (right now)

M-A Lagrange
10-24-2009, 07:26 AM
Government denies abduction of two Sudanese aid workers in Darfur
October 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Sudan has dismissed reports about the abduction in Darfur of two Sudanese nationals working for The Kadhafi Foundation, run by Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi’s son.
Today’s earlier reports said the two aid workers had been kidnapped near El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, on Wednesday as they supervised association projects.
Sudan’s state minister for humanitarian affairs told the AFP today that security service in El- Fasher told him that the two Sudanese aid workers are free now. They were freed after half an hour. It was a misunderstanding," Abdel Baqi Gilani said.
He further said they had never been kidnapped but declining to elaborate.
Sudanese intelligence services also insisted that the two men had not been abducted, according to a senior official with the UN-African Union peacekeeping force.
Two days ago unidentified gunmen kidnapped a French staffer of the International Red Cross. Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
However, the rebel Justice and Equality Movement accused today the Sudanese security apparatus of being behind the abduction.
Ahmed Hussein Adam, JEM spokesperson told Sudan Tribune the Frenchman had been kidnapped a Bir Bakik, around 12 klm from El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. He added that Gauthier had met with JEM rebels to discuss the humanitarian situation in Jabel Moon.
State minister Al-Gilani said Lefevre is in "good health" and that he expected him to be released soon.
He also voiced fear of more abductions and urged foreign relief organizations "to bolster security around their offices."

Concerning Khadafi foundation aid workers… Well, if you can have some doubts of their humanitarian engagement, they basically have proven that Khartoum is behind all that just by being released in the day.

South Sudan army accuse north of arming tribal feuds
By Ngor Arol Garang
October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Southern Sudan Minister of SPLA affairs, Lt General Nhial Deng Nhial today accused Northern Sudan authorities of arming rampant tribal conflicts in the region.
Nhial, who led Southern Sudan delegation to the Ugandan capital of Kampala, where African Union Heads of State attended Special Summit on refugees, returnees and internally-displaced persons (IDPs) strongly accused Khartoum government led by the ruling National Congress Party of President Basher of pouring arms in border lines to further submission to the region to spark tribal violence.
"We know it very well that Khartoum and particularly the ruling National Congress Party is arming all Southern militias and Arab tribes in the North -South border as well as some tribes in the south to wreak havoc so GOSS is regarded as incompetent government in the eye of international community," he commented.
He further said South Sudan does not manufacture arms and there are no arms coming into Sudan through the South; "hence wonder where fresh arms gets into the region in bulky, they are imported from the north." .
The NCP which rule the northern Sudan and dominate the government of national unity denied these accusations. Also, UN officials in Sudan insisted on the important lack resource and infrastructures as well as rains shortage to explain this increasing of tribal fighting.

There was no need of weapon smuggling to see that GoSS has difficulties in understanding the concept of ruling a country.

M-A Lagrange
10-26-2009, 11:20 AM
It could be funny if it was not that serious:

South Sudan and Kenya are on the edge to be at war. Well, may be it is just a remake of India Vs Pakistan in the fifties when British generals were playing with new born countries' armies.
Anyway, Kenya, who is training the new SPLA tanks' crew, has deploy several tanks on the border close to Lokichokio, in Nadapal. SPLA has done the same on his side of the border.

The escalation is due to regular cattle raids from Toposa tribe youth in Kenya to steal Turkana tribe cattle.
Both Toposa (SouthSudan) and Turkana (Kenyan) do not recognise the border and are claiming the ownership over the grazing land between Kapoeta in South Sudan and Lokichokio in Kenya. Elders have even come out with old British colonial maps to support their claims…

Who said Africa does not have written history?

Security beefed at border after attacks

By Isaiah Lucheli
The Government has established four security bases near the Kenya-South Sudan border.
Labour Minister John Munyes explained that security had been beefed up following attacks by Toposa raiders, which had led to the deaths of more than 40 Turkana herdsmen and theft of over 3,500 livestock.
Mr Munyes said bolstering security near the border was part of the Government’s plan to secure its international boundaries.
"The Government is committed to establishing Customs and Immigration offices on the country’s borders. The Immigration offices at Lokichogio are 25km away from the border. This has to change," he said.
Munyes said the decision was reached during a Cabinet meeting and that the migration offices would be built on the border points in Rift Valley, Coast, Nyanza, Western and North Eastern provinces.
He appealed to Kenya and Sudanese governments not to condone militia who attacked the innocent.
"A recent incident where Toposa militia shot at Kenyan security forces at the border should not be condoned. South Sudan Government should take the issue seriously," he said.
Munyes, however, said the Government should take blame on the escalating cases of boundary disputes with neighbouring countries due to lack of commitment in handling the Migingo Island issue.
"We have been lax while handling border disputes. This has set a bad precedent and other countries are encroaching onto our territory. This must stop," he said.

About the hostage in Darfur

Red Cross says has contact with abductors of French worker
October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Red Cross said on Saturday it succeeded to establish contact with the kidnappers of a French staffer in the restive region of Darfur.
Gauthier Lefevre, 35, was abducted on Thursday as he was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
"The first contact was made yesterday (Friday)" said Tamara Al-Rifai the spokesperson of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Khartoum. She further said the abductors had not made any "specific demands" and that "for the moment, we do not know anything about their motives."
Sudanese government officials condemned the abduction and described the kidnappers as bandits.
Last week, kidnappers released two staffers of the Irish GOAL after spending three months in captivity. Also two civilian from the hybrid peace keeping mission are still in detention since their kidnapping last August
UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan condemned today the abduction saying it "serves nothing but to undermine humanitarian work in the region, at the sole expense of those who benefit from such endeavour."
“It harms the chances of creating a safe and secure environment for delivering humanitarian relief and impacts negatively on our ability to deliver food and basic health and welfare services in areas where they are most needed,” added Ms. Haq.

US came with a new plan… here is the Khartoum answer…
Could that be the new form of tomorrow war?
UN peace keepers declare the conflict is finished and to make sure no one could tell another story the parties abduct relief workers to conduct operations and massacres in peace.
We probably face here a deviant replication of the media control from those last years into small wars.

Tom, can you add Sudan on the list of chaos countries?

M-A Lagrange
10-29-2009, 08:54 AM
SPLM Secretary General visits Japan
October 28, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Secretary General of the Southern Sudan ruling party who is visiting Tokyo discussed yesterday with the Japanese state secretary for foreign affairs the implementation of the peace process and South’s development.
Mr Pagan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is visiting Tokyo at the invitation of the Japanese foreign ministry.
Mr. Tetsuro Fukuyama, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Japan and Pagan on October 27 discussed southern Sudan development and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The meeting comes two weeks after a similar visit to Tokyo by Mutrif Siddiq, Sudanese Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Fukuyama and Mutrif discussed economic cooperation, the CPA implementation and Darfur conflict resolution process.
Fukuyama stated that the new administration of the Government of Japan would continue and strengthen the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) process and actively address issues faced by Africa.
They make less noise than the Chinese but they are everywhere in Africa. I met them in Chad, in DRC, in South Sudan…
It may come some how a little wired when they ask you if they can feed their tamagochy… And you are in the middle of nowhere.

From Reuters:
South Sudan probably faces corruption affair.
Unfortunately the link in is French but I am sure you can find it in English.
While nearly 1.2 million people are starving because of drought, GoSS officials pass contracts to import food for more than 3 billion US dollars.
The whole GoSS budget is 3.5 billion Sudanese Pounds… (Around 1.2 billion US$).

Those guys… Are they for real?

Kiir in Kenya: Borders Demarcation Federal JurisdictionStaff Writer

FVP, GoSS President, Lt. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is visiting Kenya, held a meeting with the Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, where they discussed bilateral relations, CPA implementation progress and other issues of common interest.

Following that presidential meeting, GoSS Minister for Regional Cooperation, Oyay Deng Ajak, held a press conference jointly with the Kenyan Minister of Internal Affairs, Jeijer Shuang Alonq, on the issues discussed in the behind-closed-doors presidential meeting.
Ajak reported that the presidential meeting has decided the establishment of a joint committee for resolving the issues that caused conflicts between the respective Sudanese- Kenyan border tribes of Toposa and Turkana, adding that the two sides stressed the need to work jointly for restoring the peaceful coexistence that was prevailing before the current conflicts. He further stated that borders demarcation jurisdiction is vested in the Federal Government rather than GoSS.

What I like with South Sudan it is that when it goes bad, it goes really bad.
In addition to nearly being at war with Kenya, their ally and troops trainer, they just come out with a financial scandal.

Those guys just remind me some militia war lord from the bush you can find in DRC. They go to war in the name of the people, kill and harass the people they fight for and when in power miss use and abuse of their power.

Concerning Kenya army training… I’m not specialised in tanks but the body count is actually 30 kenyan policement against 2 Toposa youth.
Cattle raiders are crazy as they do it for pride and social status. But it does not look too good for SPLA in a North South war revival.

Ah, Garang… Where are you? We need you so much!:o

11-16-2009, 07:19 PM
Thanks to Professor Borum. He has id'd a website monitoring events in Sudan (not just the South): http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/portal/spotlight/sudan/sudan.html and there is a list of other websites.

M-A Lagrange
11-18-2009, 06:08 PM
Thanks David for reminding me that Sudan does exist… Time to end up vacations.

Good news, the ICRC hostages are in good shape according to them.
One million each. Sounds cheap, doesn't it.

keep on fighting.

Then comes the as usual depressive news from South…

US envoy discusses CPA with Sudanese adviser
November 17, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Ghazi Salah Al-Deen, Sudanese Presidential adviser and the visiting US envoy to Sudan Scott Gration discussed today the CPA implementation and Doha peace process to settle Darfur conflict.
Mr. Gration will continue to push for a compromise between the two signatories of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) over referendum bill. On Darfur issue the US envoy plans to visit displaced camps and Jebel Marra to support groups planning to hold a unity conference there.
Gration’s visit is a continuation of the efforts of the U.S. envoy to resolve the Darfur problem and to complete the interrupted talks between the two peace partners —National Congress Party and SPLM — on the CPA implementation, said Ghazi following his meeting with Gration Tuesday.
He further added that American proposals put forward by Gration during his previous visit are still under study and it is on the table for discussion between the NCP and SPLM.
The US envoy proposed to hold nex April only elections for the Sudanese presidency and the post of president of southern Sudan government, as well as state governors. He asked to adjourn the legislative elections to the period of after the southern Sudan referebda. Further Gration suggested extend the National Assembly membership from 450 to 510 seats.
The US envoy proposed to the two peace partners during his last visit also to accept the results of the fifth census but to amend the constitution in order to prevent modification of the peace agreement with a number of voters less than 80%. Also he suggests guarantying southern Sudan 30% of the executive power as it is the case currently.
The SPLM withdrew from the National Assembly on Oct 19, saying it wants parliamentary schedule for the remaining laws of referendum and national security.
The southern Sudan party further said the current draft of security law enables the security apparatus to arrest, search and detain, adding all these are against the constitution.

M-A Lagrange
12-08-2009, 06:46 AM
As Sudan prepares for elections, North and South are debating over deep and fundamental ideas.

North police just jailed SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amur and Yassir Arman for participating to a demo in Khartoum.
As reply, South SPLM supporters burned NCP offices in Wau and vandalised NCP cars in Rumbek. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33385, http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33384
In the mean time, North Sudan official media announced that UN are supporting Bashir… http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33373

I jailed your politicians against I burn your stuff… A great lesson of democracy in deed.
Well, I cannot blame SPLM. But as they say, if SPLM-DC wins the election: we (SPLA/SPLM) make a coup; if NCP win the elections in South: we make a coup; if my friend and military commanders do not win the elections: we make a coup…
So why do we want them to have elections?
Would not be easier and less efforts consuming to say: ok you have a gun then you are in power?

After Iraq, DRC and Afghanistan electoral processes, Sudan elections are strongly questioning the democracy/electoral postulate of stabilization and peace building.

More western powers are promoting democracy, more it looks like a standard colonial process with fake occidental like practices to empower friendly interlocutors.
But that’s probably all what satbilization, peace building and nation building are about.

M-A Lagrange
12-11-2009, 11:00 AM
Darfur hostages threaten of death by Freedom Eagles in Africa
The head of Freedom Eagles of Africa, Abu Mohamed Rizeigi, told the AFP on Thursday November 26, they are targeting French aid workers to force French government to change its policy in the region.
He further warned they would attack the French diplomat and troops based in Chad.


The situation is getting worst and worst in sub Saharan Africa for relief workers.
I am sure the guys in Abeche and N’djamena are already shaking like leaves….
More seriously, as insurgents or bandits taking political agenda cover in Africa are missing legitimate targets or are too afraid to target French paratroopers and other legionnaires taking some rest on the continent, they turn to civilians.
It raises the question of civilian participating to non war related nation building/support. Expatriated civilian seems to be safer and more secure in at war locations.

Talking about the situation in South Sudan and the progresses of the nation building process (you know, the promotion of peaceful and democratic resolution of conflicts and power sharing issues), I really like the SPLM last electoral move:

Gen Kiir forms South Sudan military command council
Just before starting the SPLM candidates selection process starts.

South Sudan democratic nation building process is really on tracks now… First you build the military apparatus and then you designate your candidates for elections.
I do not know where this is leading us but it is clear that the democratic elections on the continent (Chad 2005, DRC 2006, Kenya 2008, Zimbabwe…) are more and more looking like a formal process for western like endorsement of military dictatorship.
Only 20 year ago a wind of hope was blowing on Africa as Berlin wall was falling and democracies were overthrowing communist totalitarian regimes. Now, as Iraq and Afghanistan have completely washed out democratic elections processes credibility, Africa dictators to be are coming back to their old practices. In a global world: what is happening in one place has global impact.

It is far from being good news for African people but even a worst one for western countries. If the theory of global insurgency is correct, a global civilian surge is needed. The marches of the democracies’ empire are falling. Africa is proving us everyday that democracy enforcement and nation building is not just a formal exercise that western powers can tickle and abuse!

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting men!

M-A Lagrange
12-14-2009, 09:12 AM
Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required

This shows how bad Khartoum wants to get rip of South Sudan. Well at their place I would do the same: South Sudan government went to bankrupt not even 5 years after being in charge.
There is ethnic violence all over the place.
Oil plants are in North, oil fields in South not exploited.
And basically no state and even less nation in South… Government even went to warn its administration members against self promotions for higher salaries.

Good news for once! :

Two UNAMID staff released by Darfur hostage takers
December 13, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Kidnappers in Darfur today released two civilian employees of the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission. The Nigerian man and Zimbabwean woman had been held since August 2009.

And now the proof that I am a master of evil in control of the world not knowing it, just like annonced in the The Conspiracy Thread

Sudan points fingers at France in stirring this week’s demonstrations
The Sudanese government today accused France of standing behind the demonstrations staged this week by a coalition of Northern opposition parties along with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM).


Yes we do do that sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
And supporting “nice guys” as Hassan Al-Turabi… Yes we do do that also, sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
Supporting the ICC and support Bashir arrest… Yes we definitively do do that. But we don’t take hostages!
Meeting with armed movements from Darfur? Oh yes, we do do that! For the best or the worst. Depend on which end of the gun you are.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

M-A Lagrange
12-15-2009, 10:47 AM
Sorry, today, I did not have time to look for English versions.

Angelina Joli criticizes Barak Obama on Darfour.


Just to give an idea, here is the US strategy for Sudan:
The U.S. strategy in Sudan must focus on ending the suffering in Darfur, and building a lasting peace. The three principal U.S. strategic priorities in Sudan include:
• 1) A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
• 2) Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
• 3) Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.

About the hostages:

Also, Chadian general Oki Dagache accused Sudanese secret services to be behind the 3 French hostages’ abductions in Chad and Central Africa.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

M-A Lagrange
12-16-2009, 06:53 AM
Sudan presses US special envoy on lifting sanctions

December 15, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The US special envoy to Sudan General Scott Gration met with a number of officials here who urged his government to ease the decade long unilateral sanctions imposed stressing that they are no longer justified.
The Sudanese finance and national economy minister Awad Al-Jaz told Gration that debt relief is one of the peace deliverables and part of the Oslo donors’ conference obligations adding that Sudan has made substantial efforts in improving economic growth as shown in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports.
Al-Jaz stressed that Sudan is working on sustainable and balanced development as well putting efforts to bring peace to the war ravaged region of Darfur.

Is that the bargain? Debt relief against hostages?

What ever comments Mr Gration can do, the elections will not be free, frai and transparent. Registration has been a success because population almost did not have the choice. Registration is nothing! What will count are the results and how they achieve those results and what will be the out comes of those results.
If it’s another fake government who tells its population (and I quote): “tell me what you need and I will make sure the UN will give it to you…”
Then guy, move, make war, what ever but do not participate to that joke.

South Sudan demands ancestral land from Uganda

Muki Batali Bulli, the Commissioner of Kajo-Keji County, South Sudan demands ancestral land that Uganda has "extended ownership claims."
The meeting convened in Moyo last week to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and South Sudan’s Kajo-Keji County turned chaotic after the Uganda team dismissed Sudanese’s claiming of more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim "ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the Ugandan international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries including South Sudan Central Equatoria State Gov. Clement Wani Konga.
In Kampala, the Ugandan State Minister for Regional Cooperation, Okello Oryem, confirmed the meeting saying South Sudanese officials demanded a 5 km (3 miles) portion of Ugandan land at a meeting on December 12.
"It’s true the Sudanese claimed ownership of a bigger chunk of land but of course we have colonial maps and other documents that clearly state where the border lies and I’m confident we’ll reach an agreement when we meet in January,"

Looks like nothing this, but it’s a huge problem to come. Land is the best war promoter in Africa.
Sudan can claim for ancestral land, but they rather should ask Uganda to invade them. Ugandan troops are deployed inside South Sudan from the tri border point between Uganda, Kenya and Sudan up to Darfur.
I wonder how much colonial maps did include Darfur as a part of Uganda?

All right, they are hunting down LRA (On that, See the excellent threat COIN case: LRA). But GoSS is much too happy to welcome Ugandan troops on his soil, while population all over just doesn’t see it the same way. Ugandan troops come with families, with traders, with plenty people. They take some land to settle, waiting to come back with the troops.
In Magwi County, they don’t even bother anymore in asking to Sudanese elders the right to take land, they just take it. According to various definitions, it is basically a form of colonization.
South Sudan went close to war with its best military supporter Kenya due to border issues. Tanks and the best SPLA were deployed for several weeks on the border.

If they don’t manage to go at war with North, they definitively are looking for other bordering alternatives. But! What can do a government (and its neighbors) when its army looks like a gang? Apply the Rwandan strategy. If you want to stay in power: send your generals abroad to make war!

M-A Lagrange
12-17-2009, 08:04 AM
Sudan urges France to review its colonial policy

Foreign ministry spokesperson Muawiya Osman Khalid condemned on Wednesday the "French irrational attitudes that throw rocks hinders the path of peaceful settlement in Darfur". He also warned its negative impact would be extended to "Francophonie belt" in central and western Africa.
I love the irrationality to respect law and also the colonialist politic of France in Africa… Coming from a man who considers that 2 third of the people of the country he is ruling are slaves with a lower humanity that dogs… Let me laugh.
Yes there are new partnerships in Africa but this does not change the bottom line: you do not compromise with people under investigations of the ICC.

Well, what about US? Can Khartoum really afford to use such words against US?
Are US congress men all irrational colonialists?
Guess what? Most probably apparently.

Congress presses for harder line on Sudan diplomacy, arms embargo

USCIRF Commission Chairman Leonard A. Leo, having recently returned from a five day visit to Khartoum, said "it is time for the United States to exercise strength. The policy of engagement – ‘cookies and gold stars’ – is not working. It is emboldening Khartoum to a point where this peace process is perilously close to failure."

Just to remind every body of what is freedom of speech in Sudan during presidential elections:

Sudan says it will not permit any demonstrations by opposition

The Sudanese presidential adviser and the former director of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Salah Gosh told a convention for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that the government will crack down “on any attempts to stir up the absurdity and the destabilization of the country’s security”.

Could, one day only, African politician stop undermining this continent?

Mbeki softens stance on Darfur hybrid court proposal

Just like with Bob who is killing Zimbabwe, Mbeki is playing his soft diplomacy again about Sudan and Bashir.

Soft diplomacy is a perversion of African traditions. Yes: countries sovereignty has to be respected but justice is independent.
A transparent and fair trial is not hold on the crime scene!

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

M-A Lagrange
12-18-2009, 09:00 AM
SPLM says will not endorse national security bill

The current law, the 1999 National Security Forces Act, allows the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) to arrest and detain people without charge for up to nine months, and without judicial review for six months. It also grants them broad powers of search and seizure, and contains immunity provisions.
Yaser Arman, the leader of SPLM block at the Sudanese parliament and SPLM deputy Secretary General for northern Sudan, told Sudan Tribune Thursday they reiterated their opposition to the national security bill during the meeting because they "are opposed the powers to arrest, detention, search and seizure, and immunities for national security personnel," he said.


I agree with them but they have to propose something. The old strategy of being opposed to everything did not work in any of the African countries. Opposition has to come with propositions and bill draft, not just oppose.

South Sudan army minister says peace is vital for growth

Defense forces have a critical responsibility of preserving, protecting and defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to safeguard citizens from internal and external aggression, the minister said.
Nhial further blatantly admitted Government cognizant of numerous challenges particularly those personnel in the defense force faces in carrying out their duties, he called on men and women in uniforms not to deviate from the cause of the SPLM.

Here again, who will disagree with such the assertion that defense forces have the responsibility to protect and defend the people? No one.

But in a nation, an army (here the SPLA) is not the army of a party (the SPLM).
Once again, nation building hits at full speed its limits and our great incapacity to introduce and conduct security reforms in post conflict countries and fragile states.
Nations are built on two things: the ownership of power sharing mechanism by the people (democracy) AND the ownership violence monopoly by the people through defense forces (the submission of the army to a State apparatus and not a party).
US army is the tool of a nation not the property of a man or a party.

SPLA has to be the tool of a nation and not the armed wing of a party.
What we are building in South Sudan is a democratic dictatorship.
Elections are not fake because parties will tickle the boxes but because democratic power basics are not in place in Sudan.

As long as the elite of North and South Sudan will not be able to separate military and political power, the democratisation process supported by the UN will never build a democratic nation. It will just give another flavor to a dictatorship. In Sudan as in so many other places…
But by saying so, I just said that nation building is not just limited to elections and replacing an elite by another. I just rejected all assumptions of nation building as we do it to day.

But the worst comes from IGC:

the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.
“Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup, and time is running out” says Fouad Hikmat, Crisis Group’s Sudan Adviser. “Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South’s self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and stability in the country”.
The current negotiations between President Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) cannot achieve an all-Sudan peace. Both want elections but for the wrong reasons. Bashir’s party wants to re-establish its political legitimacy, the SPLM to ensure that the referendum, which must be no later than 9 January 2011, goes ahead.


In one word, neither North nor South are looking to build a democratic nation through an electoral process but are looking for a just war coming from electoral boxes.

And the proof of how bad it is from Small Arms Survey :
According to Small Arms Survey, North army is strong of 225000 men and 310000 small fire arms. South army is strong of 125000 men with 175000 small fire arms. This is naturally without counting the 2 000 000 small arms hold by civilian population. Neither the 100 tanks bought by South and North military industrial capacity.

M-A Lagrange
12-21-2009, 01:59 PM
There has been a lot of news about South Sudan this week end. Elections, yes! But also many on core issues as the security bill, local governance, climate…

First the serious news:

Parliament voted the security bill

The law voted on Sunday still gives power to National Security to arrest and conduct investigations without real accusations but the duration of detention has passed from 3 times 3 months to a maximum of 4.5 months.
In fact the details are not that much different from what we have in our post 9/11 western countries.
SPLM voted against and the National Alliance, Minni Minnawi’s party (from Darfur) left the parliament…

In fact SPLM point is very clear and is one more time linked to CPA. This law does not comply with transitional CPA constitution.
But as they do not comply so much with CPA constitution is South, specially on SPLA deployment locations… I wonder to who we could throw the first stone.

Anyway, Human Right Watch already denounced it. I wonder what they will say when South Sudan will pass an internal security Bill…
(in French)


Once again, Catholic Church is call for rescue and legitimacy.
Governor calls on church for moral supports during elections

More seriously, once again, fake elections will cost a huge amount of money:
UNDP funds $91m programme to support Sudan’s election
The UNDP program, which is funded by the governments of Italy, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, France and the European Commission, will cover all the materials needed for the elections including voting cards, ballot boxes, and educational campaigns for voters, together with training sessions for election officers and local police.
After the disastrous election funding in DRC, EU tries again to buy an African country…

Local governance:
South Sudan calls for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution
The government of the semi autonomous region of South Sudan has called for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution in the region awash with fire arms and other weapons.
The regional government has in recent past witnessed regular killing of innocent people mostly children, women elderly and other vulnerable groups.
It is also experiencing public hateful and/or divisive speeches mainly from intellectuals seeking political appointments in the government as alternatives to reaching compromises.
Do not want to be arch on this but once again, central African power calls “tradition” to the rescue. When will we escape from the infernal circle of the African tradition as the solution to all the problems, especially bad governance and corruption?
If intellectuals are complaining about governance, monopoly of violence, accountability… It’s not in appointing local illiterate traditional chief that thingswill change.
South Sudan is just taking the old path of a too well known African dictatorial regime. I guess the advice comes from Uganda. Former Ugandan leader used the same trick to lower down intellectual opposition.

In my knowledge, it’s the same local traditional leaders who are complaining the youth is not listening to them.

As stated into the very well documented and excellent “guide to rebuild governance in stability operations: a role for the military?”, traditional leaders are often the source of ultra local conflicts and use of violence.

Then the funny news:

Some are trying to use Darfur as the first climate war.
Well, I am sorry, but Darfur war is based on power sharing and development benefit access. It is not even an ethnic war. Environmental changes have nothing to do with that ever going on war that pop up in western news papers only in 2004.
What happened in Darfur since 2004 is more or less linked with the CPA (even more than less). Khartoum faced an insurgency after being defeated by another insurgency. The response is the worst in the word, yes. But it is not due to climate. Otherwise Chadian war is due to climate. And my experience in that beautiful sunny sandy desert tells me that mass population movement and thousands years of no environmental management is far from being at the center of the conflict. Politics, yes.
Climate may be the war cause of tomorrow but do not try to reduce once again complex African political issues on power and economical access into a small tiny box!
African wars are as political as Western, Arab, South American, Asian wars! To quote Wilf quoting Clausewitz: war is politic.

I guess, as the opinion is coming from Quebec, it’s just Canada trying to get access to its oil fields. (But I am a political paranoid).

And still the hostages:

Red Cross calls for unconditional release of kidnapped staff members.
Message is clear, nothing to add.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

12-21-2009, 02:29 PM
onto my keyboard and monitor :mad:

"With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.

Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa :confused:

I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions :rolleyes:

Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.

So, exactly how many people really did register ?

M-A Lagrange
12-21-2009, 07:20 PM

I will try to respond to your question on registration.
In South, things went not that bad. The main problem is not really registration but rather the figures they will present.
First of all, there has been an over estimation of South Sudan population by SPLA during CPA talks. Census and reality have shown that only around 4 million people are actually present in South Sudan. Then only half of them are in age to vote…
Basically IDPs in Darfur used their last weapon to resist against the UN circus and elections: they boycotted registration.
In South, as in the state where I am, I would simply say that even dead and babies will vote.
Figures are anyway all fake from the very first day.
- SPLA over estimated its population so they could threat Khartoum.
- Khartoum is running an anti election campaign as they may loose presidential election if they go for transparency and fair elections.

Few months ago, a report called tickle the boxes went out to explain why all parts will cheat. And, at that time, my comment was: only Khartoum needs to tickle the box; in South, military will probably just make a coup if not elected.

For more details on elections (what a joke) please, have a look at:
Imagine the elections from NDI:

Oxford analytica

And Carter centre…
But I must say that I am not very much impressed by them.

12-21-2009, 07:37 PM
MA, Thanks for the links (especially another Carter Link !).

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic :o

I once visited Juba from Zaire, but then the governing authority were mostly military. So I find it hard to believe that something democratic will come from these "free and fair" elections in GoSS.

I noticed there is also a reserved election position for a female candidate. I can't imagine what that will do in Khartoum ;)

Do the locals still refer to Khartoum as Qadaffi’s egg ?

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange
12-21-2009, 07:57 PM
What I see for the moment is SPLA soldiers visiting villages and saying: tell what you need and the UN will give it to you.

There is no such thing as free and fair election in GoSS. They all are former or members of the SPLA with stupid ranks. I did not even new that South Sudan could host so many divisions brigader general and major general and...

But, yes, you just got it. GoSS is not a government of South Sudan people, it's a club for SPLA high ranked generals.
The idea that an army is serving a government is just not crossing their mind.

There is something to be written on Central Africa: the tomb of Nation Building...

M-A Lagrange
12-24-2009, 01:37 PM

On December 22, NCP put a claim for fraud on elections registration.

In South Sudan, more than 5 million individuals have been registered while only around 4 million were expected according to census. It is nearly 131% of the potential electors that have been registered in South Sudan.
As I was mentioning in a previous post, the main question here id not who is cheating, it is the completely fake figures that have been used by all sides.
In which country around this world, with a real democracy, 100% of electors are registered? In South Sudan, that is not a problem, it is even the norm.
What I found amazing is that Carter Center and other watchers are not even reacting when South is doing such things. :rolleyes:

2011 referendum is the core object of the for the moment legal battle.
On December 23, NCP introduced a new amendment to referendum bill.
Sudan’s parliament endorses referendum bill, SPLM protests amendments
December 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Leaders from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with other South Sudan political parties walked out of the National Assembly in protest of a new amendment introduced to South Sudan referendum bill.

But on 23, NCP redrew its amendment:
Sudan’s ruling NCP sends referendum bill back to parliament for reconsideration
December 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today made a highly unexpected move and agreed to demands by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on removing the amendments made to the controversial South Sudan referendum bill adopted by the National Assembly this week.
“We [SPLM & NCP] agreed on the fact that the law on the referendum will be resubmitted to parliament on Monday to be adopted with the article that had been removed,” the SPLM Vice president Riek Machar said.
A political observer in Khartoum Sudan Tribune that the “extraordinary” change of heart by the NCP” is driven by the fear that the SPLM would join opposition ranks in an alliance against the ruling party.

Anyways, this is not to please US:

Washington accuses Sudan’s NCP of reneging on CPA accord

December 24, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – The United States is “deeply concerned” about modifications made to the South Sudan referendum bill ahead of its passage Tuesday in the national assembly and accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of breaching the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

What has to be understood is that CPA aim is not peace for the big people of this world… It is a tool to open Sudan regime to democracy. I do agree with the objective. But counting on South Sudan leaders and especially SPLM to be a democratic rone actor in Sudan… Well, you better look at it twice.
I know the other and especially Northern opposition parties are “bad people” (they are basically Islamic radical based parties) but taking SPLM for something more than SPLA…
Let’s have a look at the 2010 elections first and see what comes out, how SPLA, which should be the army of a country and not an armed group or political militia, will act and react to all the power changes.
From ground, it is far from being done peacefully yet.

And yet the funny look like news:

In Juba police commissioner has ordered all shisha/water pipes material to be destroyed as he said: shisha tobacco is like heroin.
I love when anti arab campaigns are run at such an intellectual level. Especially when it comes from guys who are managing semi alcoholic addict troops… :eek:

M-A Lagrange
12-26-2009, 12:26 PM
It’s a shame but it’s like this. ;)

Depending on the sources, Salva Kiir is either concern that Sudan may go at war again, either encouraging his people to be “prepared”.

For APLM/SPLA, not being at war is highly dangerous. As they are just not good into governing a country they do not care of (at least the people), they need to regain legitimacy.
As the elections are basically a fake exercise to make sure that SPLA is legally in power, SPLM has to administrate the country. Unfortunately, we are far from Nairobi and the cozy houses they use to live in for decades. So a good war with North would be the best solution for them to go back to Nairobi in all legitimacy.

Just to confort this feeling, ICG released an exellent report on Jongley ethnic fightings.
(Some comments from Sudan Tribune, please visit ICG web page for full report)

The think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) in a new report examines conflict in Jonglei state of Southern Sudan. The report asserts that "inter-tribal fighting, while not a new phenomenon, has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character."
Titled Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan, the paper presents research on three main conflict cycles in the state: Lou Nuer against Dinka, Lou Nuer against Murle, and Lou Nuer against Jikany Nuer. The report implies that political competition at state, regional and national levels may be exacerbating tribal conflict.
"Politics and the personalities driving them in Jonglei may be linked to broader jockeying ahead of both elections and the referendum," asserts the ICG paper. "Some see the contentious debates over state leadership as an attempt to undermine Governor Manyang and alter the ethnic balance of power. Objections were also raised over his appointment of five state ministers, reportedly because they were ‘secondclass SPLM’ and supporters of Vice President Riek Machar. This hints at broader competition for paramount leadership of the Nuer, an unofficial position held by Machar, the highest ranking Nuer in the GoSS."
Here, we are far from the ethnic clash between pastoralist and displaced people. The political nature of South Sudan internal conflicts is fully taken in account.
Yes, war between former SPLA and SAF supporters is still going on. As in so many other countries (like Rwanda, DRC…) poorly educated people living from a harsh peace of land are abused and their natural feeling of attachment for their land (their resources, economical and social) is used for complex political battles between elites.

As CPA comes to its end, UN Secretary General took radical decisions:
Georg Charpentier from Findland has been nominated Deputy Special Representative, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator.
While General Jasbir Lidder from India has been nominated as Deputy Special Representative.

Good bye the nice guys doing nothing to not unpleased Khartoum. Welcome the European heavy Weight…
Guess who is funding the elections?

The road to Sudan, United or divided, as a Peaceful Nation is long…

M-A Lagrange
12-30-2009, 12:06 PM
It looks like a joke but it isn’t. China just granted 3 millions for Sudan elections.

China grants three million USD for Sudan’s election

The announcement was made today by the Deputy Chairman of the National Commission for the Elections ((NCE), Mr. Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, who received in his office the Chinese ambassador to Sudan Mr. Li Chengwen.
Following the Chengwen reiterated China’s support for the electoral process in Sudan and expressed the hope that the election will lead to the democratic transformation, in order to achieves stability and development. He also praised the developing relationship between China and Sudan in all fields
Apparently the US push on China, in Africa, to become more and more a “normal” donor and power in Africa had some results.
Also, most of China investments in Oil are in North Sudan… So United Sudan does looks like something they may be interested in.

After some difficulties, the referendum bill has been approved:

Sudan referendum bill finally sees the light

Sudan official news agency (SUNA) said that the national assembly adopted articles 27 and 67 dealing with voter registration centres and the criteria by which a Southerners in the North.
Under the law, south Sudanese living outside the south and born before January 1, 1956, the date of Sudan’s independence, must vote in the south.
But south Sudanese living outside the south and born after January 1, 1956 would be able to vote in their place of residence, whether in the north or abroad.

I’ll try to come with a copy of the bill. But the issue is still not clear and closed. Who are the South Sudanese livings in North? How many are they? What liberty do they have to actually go to South to vote?
Referendum battle is not ended yet.
But first things first: Presidential and general elections. On January 10th, the candidates should be announced. This candidate nomination will probably tell us long on the direction South Sudan will take. Will we witness only former military from SPLA (most probable scenario) or will we see the up rising of a real civilian political class?

12-30-2009, 07:45 PM
What impact has Russian envoy Mikhail Margelov's December visit had ?

RIA Novosti (http://www.rian.ru/) recently quoted Margelov where he opined there was no one to replace Bashir as president in April.

If Bashir goes, China will have a smooth arms deal in place. Hmmm, will Russia then pull out of their UN role :wry:

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange
01-04-2010, 02:58 PM
Bashir expresses hope for unity in 2011 referndum, promises Darfur peace

January 3, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, today expressed hope that southern Sudanese will vote for unity in a self-determination referendum scheduled to take place in January next year.
"Days are going towards the holding of elections (…) and will come the date of referendum where (people) have to say their word without pressure. We hope, with determination, that unity would be the fruit of peace and its biggest reward," he said
"We promise you that the peace circle will be complete, God willing, so as to be a really comprehensive peace that will soon be enjoyed by the beloved parts of Darfur and its steadfast and generous people" Bashir said.

Either Bashir lost his mind about Darfur, either US and Chinese lobby is extremely strong. As I said since the beginning, South wants independence but they are more and more the only one. But as long it’s only Bashir who calls for unity, we are far from a unity option in 2011.

I was at a SPLM rally this week end and funny or not, they opened the meeting with the fact that 2010 will be the year of partition. May be, realizing after they had UN guest, they came back to 2010 the year for elections, but local, not national. Those presidential elections look more and more as a complete joke.

Actually the states with more than 100% of voter registered refuse to send their data to Khartoum to the NEC. They are saying they did not well do the census. Yes, right, that is true… But guys: why do you do #### work at the beginning and then look for a pretext to go for war?

Anyway, some candidates are coming, starting by my favorite for the moment ;)
Hassan Tourabi announced he nominated Abdullah Deng Nial as Popular Congress Party. He will run as independent. (AFP news)
Abdullah Deng Nial is from South and is a former John Garang family member… (PCP information)

Let’s go for Rock’n Roll… An extreme extremist candidate and a former Garang family member… Presidential elections will be wild. I love this: a southerner radical Muslim running for united Sudan presidential elections…
I am waiting for what GoSS will come with: a Northerner Christian preaching unilateral declaration of independence for South? :cool:

Stan, I'am going on patrol for a week so sorry for not responding immediatly. But interresting question in deed.

M-A Lagrange
01-10-2010, 08:56 AM
That ‘s normal I’ve been told but still, I have difficulties to go with it sometimes.
I'll make 2 post as too many stuff happened.

First of all, the coming elections:

Sudan’s URRP leader to run for presidency in 2010
The Umma Reform and Renewal Party (URRP) announced today that it has nominated its leader Mubarak Al-Fadil to run for president in the April 2010 elections making it the third party in the country to name its candidate.
Al-Fadil was appointed by Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir as a presidential adviser for economic affairs in 2002 before being removed in October 2004. He has became one of the fiercest critics of the NCP ever since.

SPLM ends nomination of candidates in Sudan
The leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) today confirmed ending of the nomination of candidates aspiring for parliamentary and executive seats as state governors across the country.
"Their names will be made public no later than 14 January 2010 after thorough discussions from political bureau," he said.

As I said previously, officials actually in post will have to resign to conduct electoral campaign. If that’s not a problem for North opposition (they are not in power) and Bashir (he just doesn’t care), this is a huge security breach for SPLM in South. They better choose wisely.

Then the referendum
It’s not me who say that, for ones, but:

Sudanese NCP official criticizes referendum law as ‘recipe for war’

The Sudanese presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani and the leader of the National Congress parliamentary bloc criticized a portion of the referendum law adopted in the national assembly last month saying it contains a ‘recipe of war’ in it.
Al-Attabani voiced doubts about the meaning of a partnership with a “secessionist movement that does not even recognize Sudan’s independence”. He said the SPLM is proposing the New Sudan project which he described as an incriminating proposal because it “criminalizes the history of Sudan and does not even recognize its independence”.
The NCP official also accused the SPLM of failure because of lack of clarity in putting forward the New Sudan project adding that this is also due to the paralysis of its political will.
He also referred to the Juba conference held last September under the auspices of the SPLM which included Northern opposition parties saying that it lost its moral legitimacy and was effectively a venue to put the NCP on trial.
And then came the crazy news:
South Sudan independence a “reality”, NCP official says
Al-Dardiri Mohamed Ahmed, a leading figure at the NCP, was quoted by local press as saying that the separation of the south from the north became the “reality and inevitable” blaming the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) for this outcome.

To be realistic, at the moment, there are 8 tanks and ACP, illegally imported from Kenya by GoSS that are stuck in the mud on Juba road guarded by SPLA beating up SAF soldiers… I am not sure they will wait for referendum to go at war.

PS: Stan, I do not forget your question. It’s coming. Give me time, I’ve several hundreds mails to respond to and a shower to take.

M-A Lagrange
01-10-2010, 09:02 AM
Government slams foreign organizations’ report on return to war in Sudan
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry criticized a conclusion reached by some NGOs operating in southern Sudan that said that Sudan may be heading for a new cycle of war under the current prevailing conditions in the South.
The report, "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan", was written on behalf of ten international non-governmental organization. It said that the upsurge of violence during the last year "could escalate even further and become one of the biggest emergencies in Africa in 2010."http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33719

10 NGO call for peace as they see war coming and what Khartoum says: you are wrong!
Hey guys, just say: yes SPLM is not capable to enforce peace. That’s the same and closer to reality that just saying no. If NCP stays in power, they will just let the situation go worst anyway.

I spend the week talking with tribal leaders and elders. They all are on the path of war. Not against the government but against the neighbors with cattle… They’re just waiting the election campaign and the lack of authority to go for it, when it’s not already done.

Fighting in Warrap state leaves at least 139 dead
Clashes between Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups this week in Warrap state left at least 139 people dead. The fighting, purportedly over cattle, also left at least 90 wounded and several thousands head of cattle looted.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33707

NGOs urge Security Council to consider more resources for UNMISA group of aid agencies issued a joint report today that urged the UN Security Council to consider whether the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) needs more resources, pointing out that civilians in South Sudan are at risk, particularly in rural areas.
"The UN Security Council (UNSC) should emphasize that protecting civilians must be a priority for UNMIS and consider whether UNMIS needs more resources to meet its mandated obligations," states the NGOs’ Joint Briefing Paper issued today.

Reminds me some bad times from DRC… The last 2 years actually!

More seriously, South Sudan is facing a real threat that will undermine any form of government in the coming future: ethnical fascism.
I know, it’s not politically correct to speak like this but the main problem all over the place is the Dinka tendency to believe that South Sudan belongs to them. Last year, most of the killings were due to Dinka and other tribes clashes. This year, it will be the same. Where I am, the only clashes taken in account by the government are the ones involving Dinka. I even went to a place where you had a chief for the local people and a Dinka chief to make the link between SPLA and the local chief.
According to me, South Sudan is a good example of the diseases of nationalism and failures of nation building: ethnical fascism legitimized by fake elections made in the name of peace.
SPLA should be a national army but it’s a Dinka army used by “politicians” to earn and eat the economical benefits of the war. You better be a Dinka or protecting Dinka interests in South Sudan if you want to live long…
The people I met on the ground were just afraid of SPLA. The only one who were not, were those with enough fire power to fight back...

What we really do not know to do is ending small wars. Backing up and training guys to fight in the jungle or freezing mountains… We’re all the best. But finding a path to stability and functional administration… We’re just a bunch of losers.

There is some highly theoretical work to be done on the subject.
I take a shower and come back.:D

M-A Lagrange
01-11-2010, 02:34 PM
Russian special envoy remarks on Bashir’s reelection draw fire
The Sudanese political forces reacted angrily to statements made by Russian special envoy Mikhail Margelov in which he appeared to be endorsing president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir for another term in the upcoming presidential elections.
“I have not yet seen this alternative [to Bashir] even back in January when I had to convince [our] western partners that the arrest warrant by International Criminal Court (ICC) to arrest the Sudanese president is not viable and unrealistic” Margelov was quoted as saying in response to a question on availability of other candidates to run for president against Bashir.
Mariam Al-Mahdi, a senior figure in the Umma national party, deplored statements by Margelov saying that the choice of who to become president should be made by the Sudanese people.
“The Russian envoy has little understanding of the Sudanese political arena. He has limited his dialogue during his tenure to the two partners [in GoNU NCP & SPLM] so all he really saw was Bashir” the daughter of the former prime minister said.
The leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi expressed “surprise” over Margelov’s position but downplayed its significance.
“The Russians have only recently been acquainted with democracy and are still carrying the burden of totalitarian rule. What he [Margelov] said has no impact on the ground and with no weight” Al-Turabi said.
“He [Margelov] did not meet with other political parties besides the ones in power or create channels of communication with us so his understanding is lacking. He knows nothing about Sudan or its problems like in South or Darfur or even the country’s history and what happened in the last twenty years [since Bashir came to power],” the Islamist opposition leader added.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33409

Actually Margelov comments are quite relevant and western powers do think the same; even USA. That is the main problem in fact, if not Bashir who else?

Basically, for the moment, Russia is providing the air transport to the UN (As usual). Up to now, MI8 pilots were mainly playing Khartoum game. It has been a hell to get the helicopters on some places long the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. But now, things are getting better…

Russia has to open consulate in South Sudan – envoy
Russia should open a consulate in the southern Sudan capital as over 20 countries have their offices there, said Mikhail Margelov the special envoy to Sudan in statements to Russian journalists.
"This is not the first year that the idea of opening a Russian consulate in Southern Sudan in Juba has been discussed, and I am deeply convinced that this should be done and not delayed," reported the Russian RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

China has been thanked by Kenyan government for its financial support for the construction of a road and rail way channel for Sudanese Oil to Lamu harbor in Kenya. AFP January 6 2010.

For the moment it's Port Sudan which is the main point for Oil export. This tells long about the efforts put to get South Sudan on tracks.
The only clouds I see, there is actually a conflict inside GoSS and SPLM/SPLA between pro Kenya and pro Uganda.
The coming elections will tell us who will win that battle. Uganda is actually having some strong positions in South Sudan. The LRA hunt has allow Museweni to send an important number of troops inside South Sudan. It's difficult for me to not see the Kagame mentor not applying Rwanda tactic to basically militarily colonize South Sudan. LRA looks like another fake FDLR threat to me…

01-11-2010, 04:17 PM
This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

This is exactly what I was thinking. If Russia goes, the Chinese will be dead on their heals. Setting up a consulate means they are there to stay and guarantee a place for special envoy Margelov to watch the elections :wry:

M-A Lagrange
01-12-2010, 08:33 PM
WFP warns against hunger coming... And they are right;

Sudan: UN agency warns of massive food deficit in southern region11 January 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today that Southern Sudan is facing a massive food deficit fuelled by drought and widespread insecurity.
The warning comes as Sudan marks the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended two decades of conflict between the central government in Khartoum and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
“With tribal tensions reportedly mounting, there could be similar disruptions to vital food distributions in 2010,” warned the agency, which hopes to feed a total of some 11 million people across the entire country this year.

The only thing is that I was present to one of the many meetings WFP had with donors. And to be frank, they were just the worst advocate in the world for their cause. Their argument was: we are WFP give us money so we will distribute food.
If I was donor I would just say: NO! GO BACK AND DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
But they are right...

Just for the pleasure to be politically paranoide, in the South Green belt, they exported 100 trucks of 25 tonnes of food to North Uganda this year, according to a State ministry of Agriculture.
Even if they did half of it, apparently Ugandan market is much more interresting than South sudan market. May be because in North Uganda there is also hunger but the people have money and the government is not broke?
But as I said, I'm a political paranoide.

Well, you also have to had this:

Sudan Stakes New Claim on Uganda LandThe meeting that was convened to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and Sudan turned chaotic after the Sudanese team tabled a document claiming more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim “ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries
Muki said the area continues westward to West Eria hill, Lefori and down to Wano, all places in Moyo that have previously been free of controversy.
Other areas claimed in the document include Dwani wano, Goburi land, Bori, Liwolo, Koriwa and several hills and streams.
On the site where the construction of an MTN mast was halted, Muki said the area was called Koturume and lies in the land of the Lito’ba clan from Sudan.
According to Muki, they stopped the construction of the Afoji-Lere road by Moyo district because it passes through Dwani Wano, an area, he said, was occupied by Ugandan refugees following the outbreak of the 1979 war.
“We received you warmly and allowed you to settle. Now the local authorities in Moyo have extended claim over Dwani Wano. The land is undoubtedly Kuku land,” Muki said.

As I said, I can't believe Ugandan army entered South Sudan just for the pleasure to hunt LRA. Actually, if you look at it closely, they are securing the Great Equatoria Green Belt. And USAID just decided to fund agriculture in South Sudan Great Equatoria Green Belt.
How to put it nicely?
US do not trust GoSS enought for security and does have the same analyses of the situation than Oxfam: South is falling into war and elections will not make any changes.
Also, they need to feed Museweny apparently. Democratic opening does not seem to be for everyone.

Let say it's a coincidence and not the too well known Kagame strategy to colonise a weak neigboor and his huge natural ressources...:rolleyes:

01-12-2010, 08:48 PM
I just coincidentally finished a documentary translated from French to Estonian on the GoSS.

The Frenchman (MSF) claims that people are still being set on fire and villages plundered to drive the population north.

Although there was much USA-bashing for the current regime in Sudan, in closing they mentioned the Chinese ready to provide "economic aid" with the new elections.

M-A Lagrange
01-12-2010, 09:21 PM

I will not criticise MSF, I'm a former MSF and the saved me when I had malaria in lost place in DRC but...
They do not really know how to communicate. I believe we read the same article and I have to agree with them. But they are too often focused on the great western evil powers. They started to have a teeth against China, I have to recognise. But the Maoist heritage from Kouchner is heavy to carry and they have difficulties to throw it away.

It makes months I am trying to get them in a lost part of South Sudan where there is no health, no government, no NGO, nothing.
And they came to make a surgery assessment...
Sometimes, it's difficult to get them out of the glamorous spots. But as all the others, they need money and 2010 will be difficult.
Saying so, they did and are doing great job in all the worst places where LRA is or Jongley.
I am surprised MSF-USA (doctor without borders) did not publish it in english. But if MSF is a big familly, like in all families, they are not all good friends. :rolleyes:

M-A Lagrange
01-13-2010, 09:33 AM

Sudan’s NCP hints at possibility of alliance with SPLM in elections

The Sudanese ruling National Congress Party (NCP) expressed openness to the idea of an alliance with its rival representing the South in the upcoming April elections, a senior official said today. The presidential assistant and deputy NCP chairman Nafie Ali Nafie, speaking at a press conference today affirmed that his party is committed to holding the elections as scheduled. Nafie stressed that the NCP will accept the choice of the people irrespective of the outcome, hinting to the possibility of alliance with Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) “in light of the keenness of both sides to implement of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and maintaining the unity”.


Gration calls on EU to provide monitors, funds for Sudan voteMajor General (Ret.) Scott Gration, the US presidential envoy to Sudan, in a meeting with the press today called on the European Union to send some 300 elections monitors to Sudan in time for the April nationwide elections.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33749

The push for Sudan Unity is stronger and stronger from US. The EU seems to be keen to pay and control it but up to which extend?
The US strategy to let the former colonial powers deal with local indirectly terror linked issues in Africa seems to be still on the run.
But I cannot see EU doing it for free.
South Sudan agriculture and Rwanda/Uganda non interference in DRC against oil? Seems to be a loose deal.
May be EU expect AFRICOM to become the gendarme de l’Afrique in its place?

Any ways, official candidate list from NCP for North has come out. The one for South is expected in the coming days.

NCP Deputy Head for organizational affairs Dr. Nafei Ali Nafei said that his party has choosen the following:-
Fathi Khalil for the Northern State, Al-Hadi Abdullah for River Nile, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Khidir for Khartoum, Al-Zubeir Basher Taha for Al-Jazeera, Ahmed Abbas for Sennar, Ahmed Karemeno for Blue Nile, Karamallah Abbass for Gedarif, Mohammed Yousif Adam for Kassala, Mohammed Tahir Aila for the Red Sea, Yousif Al-Shenbali for White Nile, Faisal Hassan for Northern Kordofan, Ahmed Haroun for Southern Kordofan, Mohammed Yousif Kibir for Northern Darfur, Abdul Hamid Kasha for Southern Darfur and Jaafar Abdul Hakem for Western Darfur.http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=53050

and the Chinese:

Sudan and China discuss expansion of Khartoum refinery
Sudan’s oil minister Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan was in China for talks on Khartoum refinery expansion, the official news agency SUNA reported today.

Seems that Sudan is the new wild wild west of Africa those days. I wonder how that ménage a 3 (or more) between US, Russia and China will turn. Chinese are new players but strong ones with heavy arguments.

And this link on Sudan from our Quebecois friends:

General link on Sudan and UNMIS from University of Montreal

A bit official but nice stuff on this site.

01-13-2010, 12:58 PM
Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08

All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.

Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)

Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).

The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.

And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.

Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....


Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars

M-A Lagrange
01-13-2010, 07:31 PM
I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

As I understand it, that is what Museweny wanted and effectively not Garang. But Garang is dead. So the vision of a unified Sudan with 2 sub states will not be.

The entire foundation is based on oil.

True and not. The deep roots of the second Sudan civil war can be also found in the first civil war and in the pastoralist culture that is shared by all ethnical groups from North to South Sudan. I was in Chad in 2005 and it was the same #### about land, water and cows. The oil question was flying much too high for the average fighter.

The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict
You read my mind.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

If only you had just Neuer and Dinka... But you forget the Toposa, the Murule, the I do not know what...
What kills that country, part from actually in power SPLA is the marriage bride. As long as a young guy cannot give 200 cows, at least, he is not a man. And the elders will mocke him and he will never have any chances to have a place in the society. So he takes an AK and goes for cattle raiding. And greedy politicians (may be stupid) take advantage of it rather than trying to solve the problem.

Anyways, welcome to comment, analyse and counter analyse South Sudan unfinished war.


M-A Lagrange
01-15-2010, 02:05 PM
Apparently not every body’s happy with the previous batch of SPLA/, sorry SPLM/A, in charge:

E. Equatoria SPLM Governorship Election Results must not be overturned by the Political Bureau

January 13, 2010 — SPLM contest for the post of Governorship in the state has been won convincingly by Comrade Louis Lobong Lojore against the incumbent Brig. Aloysius Ejotuk Emor in a contest widely believed to be transparent and fair. Comrade Louis not only beat Comrade Aloysius hand down (21 votes for Louis and 4 votes for Aloysius) but his overwhelming victory sends a strong message to Juba that people voice is a voice of God and if they determine, time or money can’t stop their march. The ball is now with the SPLM Bureau to clear Comrade Louis Lololomoe Aribokinyang without any delay or manipulation!

Lakes nominations finalized for election – Awet not chosen for governor

January 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Lakes State Electoral College Committee Chairman Abraham Mayen Kuc has officially announced the SPLM candidates nominated for the post of governor and for the geographical constituences in the April 2010 nationwide election. The incumbent governor, Daniel Awet Akot, was not chosen to stand for the post.

What is really interesting is not who is chosen (it does have its importance) but the on going processes of questioning actual in power former SPLA commanders capacity to rule and administrate properly the State they were given.

And for those who are nominated but already in place:

Kiir will not step down as army chief if nominated for presidential election

An official of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan has ruled out any possibility of General Salva Kiir Mayardit stepping down from the army even if he is nominated as SPLM candidate for presidency.
The minister for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, who is a close aide to Kiir on Wednesday, said Kiir’s candidacy would not need him to step down as commander-in-chief.
He however admitted that presently the SPLA Act states that no member of the SPLA can participate in political activities but said there will be decisions made within the regulations of southern Sudan.
The Southern Sudan interim constitution is however silent about what the aspirant candidates for political positions, while actively serving in the army, should comply with during elections.

Salva Kiir formally nominated for presidency in South Sudan
The Political Bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the incumbent chairman of the party, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, as the candidate for South Sudan presidency.

Smells like if I loose I still can make a coup… The battle between late Garang supporters and Kiir is raging on.
Anyway, it also addresses the issue of constitution design for post conflict or conflict ending contexts.
The idea to oblige candidates to resign from their positions inside State and South Government was quite a smart move. I believe the intension was to avoid exactly what Kiir is doing. And in fact, it works in most of the States, as SPLM has nominated mainly non governors to run for elections, in order to preserve SPLM control on administration.
On the other hand you have a breakdown of continuity and a dangerous State vacancy if the actual governors do run for elections as independents (as they will in many places).
I believe there are no perfect systems. A system that would forbid anyone already in place to run for elections would not be considered as fair.

Simple questions and complex answers, as usual with Nation Building.

M-A Lagrange
01-17-2010, 09:44 PM
Sudan electoral board warns Salva Kiir to resign from his military position

The Sudan’s National Elections Commission (NEC) has sent a warning letter to the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan President and the region’s presidential candidate, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, to relinquish his military post in order to qualify to run for the upcoming April 2010 elections.
NEC is a national legal body established by law in 2008 in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution of Sudan, 2005.
It is charged with the responsibility to process and oversee the conduct of the post-war general elections during the interim period and has established branches at Southern Sudan and states levels.
It's a move, but may be not the strongest one.

Much more awaited, even if the results was known, SPLM-DC announced its candidate:

Lam Akol runs for presidency in South Sudan
The former Sudanese foreign and head of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol will run for the post of South Sudan president, according to a statement released by his office.
Akol was a leading figure in the legacy SPLM party but his close ties to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has alienated his colleagues at the ex-Southern rebel group.
Akol has insisted at the time that the SPLM partnership with the NCP is particularly valuable and also campaigned in favor of the Sudanese President after the issuance by the International criminal Court of an arrest warrant against him.
The alliance expressed support to Bashir candidacy for president of the country.
“President Al Bashir is the only person to sign working peace agreement in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and the Eastern Region….. El Bashir was also credited with stopping wars and the bloodshed which had plagued the nation for so long. Also the inclusive administration instituted by President Al Bashir already is a good step for political pluralism and social and cultural diversity. Mr. Bashir is the very one now working to implement democratic transformation and as it was embodied in the interim Constitution of the country and the CPA and he should be given the chance to continue with this”.
“Bashir has to be given the chance to complete the implementation of the CPA and the other agreement which he had signed while serving current term. Many challenges remain and the alliance of Southern Political partied believes it is only Al Bashir who can overcame the challenges that remain in implementing the peace agreements”.

Now, the real question is being asked. And it shows how much SPLM is not comfortable with those elections.

Should Dr. Lam be allowed to campaign in South Sudan?

In the SPLM-DC nomination statement, Gurtong reports the Secretary of SPLM-DC Charles Kisanga as saying that “there have been big complains and protests from the members of the Alliance of Southern Sudan political parties operating in the Southern Sudan, that they had not been able to file candidates for many constituencies due to intimidation, bullying and arrests by SPLM security forces.” What Mr. Kisanga means by “SPLM security forces” is not clear.

However, this statement raises the question of whether Dr. Lam Akol will be free to campaign in South Sudan against Gen. Kiir or not. South Sudan Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Luka Manoja instructed the Governors of ten states in South Sudan last year to allow all political parties, except SPLM-DC, in the South to conduct their activities freely. SPLM allegedly accused SPLM-DC of being the armed resistance movement that does not qualify to be a political party.

I love the subtile differenciation between SPLM and SPLM-DC. As far as I know, SPLM is the political wing of a rebelion militia (well the agregate of it).
Transition from a military organization to a political one is always a challenge for rebels in Nation Building. South America experiences tend to show that such organizations are not capable to do it.
Other African experiences tend to show that the transition is only in surface (see what happened in Zimbabwe).
In South Sudan, the difference pointed out by Sufferedbeetle between State Building and Nation Building takes all its sense. Those elections are the first step to the referendum which will be a pure Nation Building exercise. Those elections are a State building exercise per definition but also a Nation Building exercise in the sense that South (At least SPLM/A) will have to reveal its true face.
Is SPLM/A are Nation representative machine or just a militia gang as too many others? Will SPLM/A accept to build a Nation with all its political diversities and accept to be challenged?
Will South be able to build its future out of the war?
Accepting SPLM-DC campaign will be the proof that SPLM can live without Khartoum. That South Sudan as a Nation is something that does exist further than the "my hamster grazing rights" claim or policy (to use Wilf definition).
The main danger in Nation Building is to build a fake apparatus that will just hide the real roots of the tensions. The temptation is high to just place people you have the habit to deal with and not address the real questions. Stabilization in Nation Building is not just addressing the on going small scale conflicts but it's also building a process that allows to prevent up coming conflicts.

M-A Lagrange
01-20-2010, 03:54 PM
First the next episode of the elections and Salva Kiir legal prblems:

Gen. Salva Kiir should relinquish his military position

The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum was quoted by a local newspaper, The Juba Post, as saying that his party’s chairman will step down from being the army chief as the law requires.
Amum also added that the party’s candidate for the position of the President at the national level, Yasir Saeed Arman, will also resign from his current position as party’s Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sector and focus on the presidential campaigns.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33843

The list of the candidates for South Sudan:

Uper Nile: Simon Kun Puoc (SPLM); NO (NCP)

Unity: Taban Deng (SPLM); Paul Leli (NCP)

Warrap: Nyandeng Malek Deliec (SPLM); Mayur Akeli (NCP)

Jonglei: Kuol Manyang Juuk (SPLM); Josepgh Dower Jacob (NCP)

Eastern Equatoria: Louis Lobong Lojore (SPLM); Andalla Albert (NCP)

Central Equatoria: Clement Wani Konga (SPLM);James Luro (NCP)

Lakes: Chol Tong Mayay (SPLM); Thomas Pan Melik (NCP)

Northern Bahr El-Ghazal: Paul Malong Awan (SPLM); Joseph Ajwang (NCP)

Western Bahr El-Ghazal: Rizig Zakaria Hassan (SPLM); Steven Musa (NCP)

Interresting but not suprising, NCP is not even trying in Upper Nile. Must say that Malakal is not really a pro NCP place. In 2009 combats between former SAF militia lead by Gabriel Tang and SPLA killed 50 and wounded 100. In 2006 combats between the same killed more than 100.
But that was hard breach of the CPA by the way…

Then the next episode of China takes over the world and becomes a Western like power:

China may send observers for Sudan’s April election

Abdalla Ahmed Abdalla, Deputy Chairman of the National Election Commission, met recently with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Li Chengwen. They discussed "preparations for arrival of a Chinese delegation to participate in the monitoring of the coming elections in Sudan," according to the official Sudan News Agency (SUNA).


Please welcome the State building "a la chinoise". Elections are fake? So let's go! I love when we basically are morally shooting our selves in the foot and end up with a brain damage! :cool:

M-A Lagrange
01-23-2010, 10:19 AM
US Congress reps. seek to commemorate Sudan’s CPA

January 20, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — Three Republican congressmen introduced a resolution in the US House of Representatives today to belatedly recognize the fifth anniversary of the signing of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and call for "urgent and aggressive actions to establish peace in all regions of Sudan."


I do not know what they call an aggressive action to establish peace in all region of Sudan. Few days ago, AFRICOM was optimist about the elections and USA Special Envoy also. As all the NGOs covering the elections (Carter Centre… ) also as well as the electoral observers. Even China decided to enter in the dance…
The real question is not peace between North and South. Peace as the absence of war is there. Peace as Spinoza describes it… It's another subject.

In fact it's not the election and the insecurity that such exercise brings with him which is the problem. The problem is far much simple. The main problematic in South Sudan nowadays is economical.
Yes the Nuer and the Dinka are fighting… On power and oil… In Warrap or Jonglei…

But average violence is due to poverty. In Yambio what started the fire last week is just the delay in payment for students' performance incentives during CPA anniversary.

Now, let's have a look at the complex dance of the elections:

SPLM candidate vows to work for Sudan’s unity
In a press conference held at the SPLM premises after his arrival to Khartoum and an important reception by supporters, Arman vowed to work for voluntary unity between the north and the south. He also said he would present a political program that the south fought for.
Arman further described his candidacy for the presidency as a "gift" from the south to the north and a greeting to the west and center. He further added that his candidacy restores confidence and rehabilitates the North-South relations.

Kiir’s presidential advisor declares independent candidacy for governorship

Alfred Lado Gore, a veteran politician and advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Diplomatic Affairs on Thursday declared his intention to run for the post of governor for Central Equatoria state as an independent candidate.
Gore’s nomination was turned down last week by the party’s highest political organ, the SPLM Political Bureau, in favor of the incumbent governor Maj. General Clement Wani Konga.
He sounded confident, saying he enjoys popularity among the citizens of Central Equatoria state and criticized the Political Bureau for taking an “unpopular decision among the people” during the selection exercise. . He further explained that he took the decision to contest independently because of “popular demand” on him among the people of Central Equatoria state.
The SPLM official said he would not leave his party but work to maintain its popularity in the state by bringing on board his supporters.

The guy is resigning from his job. At the best moment, South Sudan just do not need a wise guy for diplomacy right now…
Already Salva Kiir is facing internal opposition inside SPLM as the line at national level is Unity and the line at South Sudan level (His line) is independence. And now key people are running independent…
To be frank, this is what happens when in the name of peace, you put every body in the same box and say now you are all friends and you gonna work it out.
Basically there are 2 different approach. The South Sudan one and the DRC one.
In South Sudan, all opponent of North were put in a box called SPLM to ease State building job and avoid civil war (what a result on the last one!). I'll call it the all=1 approach.
In DRC, they ended up with 4 vice presidents and 1 president the 4+1 approach.

I just do not know how this will end up but the 4+1 approach had the advantage to be more "democracy like" than the all=1 approach. Not that DRC is a stunning success, far from it, but at least elections preparation was less messy and civil war was limited to elections results publication.
It's also the problem of having an international community who's taking side unilaterally not for the "good guys" but against the "bad guys".
I mean, if we really want State building to work out and end up with Weberian States supported by a strong administration and promoting Democracy (Here I put a "D" on purpose), the enemy of my enemy is my friend strategy is just too limited.
And let's make a stupid comment: The 4+1 is culturally more accurate most of the time. Even it creates a Hydra which is less easy to manage than the All=1 Chimera.

But let's talk about future (?)

UN chief urges Sudanese to discuss post-referendum arrangements
January 22, 2010 (NEW YORK) — UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the Sudanese parties of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address the post referendum arrangements to shun war.

Ah… ??? shouldn't we be looking at post elections first.
As JMM says: let's shoot the 25 m target first. But I believe that it's preventive (even preemptive) action.

Step by step gentlemen please. The fubar potential is already there.

And finally the "So Smart" move from Khartoum:

Sudan revokes licenses of 26 aid groups in Darfur, warns dozen others

The following groups have their licenses cancelled according to the decree; 1- Prospect Sudan 2- Counterpart International 3- Feed the Children 4- Food for the Hungry 5- Safe Harbor 6- The Halo Trust 7- Right to Play 8- Air Serve 9- Mercy International 10- Global Peace Mission 11- Population Media Centre 12- Sudanese International Development and Relief Association (SIDRA) 13- Royal Dutch Aid 14- Canadian Association for African Development 15- SPEG- Holland 16- Norwegian League for Disabled 17- African Association for Development 18- Health Assistance for Children (HAFC) 19- Nabata Charitable Foundation 20- Impact 21- Cins- Italy 22- Ulfa Aid 23- Joint Projects Organization 24- Arabic Centre for Immigrant Labors 25- Tomp/Germany 26- Human Relief and Peace.

The second set of organizations received an unspecified warning to adjust status in accordance with the law but no details were furnished. They include Stromme Foundation 2. Veterinaraires Sans Forntieres- Germany 3. Planned Parenthood 4. (International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Area(ICARDA 5. Deniz Feneri 6. International Blue Crescent Relief 7. Handicap International 8. (Education Action International (Former was University Services Org 9. Movimondo 10. Sudanese Mothers for Peace 11. Panos Sudan 12. Eritrean Islamic Relief 13. One Earth.

A humanitarian war crime to come?
Please have a look at that threat: Humanitarian action: a Just action?


M-A Lagrange
01-28-2010, 07:05 PM
Sudan’s peace partners failed to reach agreement over parliamentary seats

SPLM wanted more seats for the South in the National Assembly in order to make it possible to block any future attempt to amend the constitution by the elected national parliament which might affect the gains of the CPA in the South or the conduct of referendum itself.
Southern Sudan officials have however observed that NCP had become more intransigent after learning that the SPLM had distanced itself from forging an alliance with it during the upcoming April elections.

When two liars are accusing each others:

Khartoum paper prints ‘nonsense’ on Blue Nile troop build-up, says SPLA

January 25, 2010 (RUMBEK) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Official Spokesman, Maj-Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol, today denied that the South Sudan army is building up forces in Blue Nile State. He was responding to a news article printed in Akhir Lahza.
"This is all nonsense," said the SPLA spokesman in reply. "SPLA is not present in Blue Nile, all our troop are in Northern Upper Nile at Gupa — you see Sudan Armed Forces’s problem is that they mix up borders, and the fact is that the border is not demarcated."
He suggested the problem was perhaps a matter of border demarcation and called upon the Khartoum government to demarcate the borders. "Where is the border between Upper Nile state and Blue Nile state demarcated?" he asked.

I love that! South Sudan is basically a country with moving borders. The border in the South is being discussed. The border in the North also. Wait, they also are negociating for the border with Ethiopia…
The base of a Nation is… A Land, People and an army? Well I guess they have the people, the army but are still missing the Land. At least the limits of their Land.

But North is not in rest about lies…

Sudan rejects US allegations of masterminding weapons flow to South

“We heard today from the U.N. that it is not just small arms but some heavier munitions that seem to be flowing in,” Rice said. “We weren’t given specifics on that. But we have seen, in the violence that is taking place in the South, a higher degree of sophistication and lethality of the weapons employed, and that’s a source of concern”.
The American official said that Washington believed some of the weapons were coming from northern Sudan.

Some are also coming from other places, that's for sure. But saying that North are not supplying weapons to the South… Between some and all there is a difference. Just like between some and none.

The elections: going officially fake?

NCP endorses Kiir for South Sudan presidency, calls on SPLM to reciprocate

The NCP’s presidential adviser Ali Tamim Fartak told Reuters that the decision not to field a candidate for president of the south, which will vote on January 9, 2011 on independence, was to “maintain a good partnership” with the SPLM.
“And we hope the SPLM will do the same by withdrawing their candidate for the president of the republic,” Fartak said.

Truth is also that in many places, NCP, like any other parties, except SPLM, has not been able to register its candidates. For unknown reasons they did not have the paper work…
The elections can be fair and transparent, if there is only one candidate for each post…

This really questions the concept of elections in post conflict countries. Especially if there is a possibility to end up the conflict just by splitting the place in several pieces.
Not that union is really an option actually but somehow, it should be impossible to come to such end.

We are clearly in a Nation destructuration process now. And it has been endorsed by both parties.

But while China is trying to be democratic… India is not loosing its objective:

Sudan, India discuss energetic cooperation

Indian Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Shri Murli Deora arrived yesterday to Khartoum met today with his Sudanese counterpart Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan, to review progress on the existing projects and discuss ways to expand it.
ONGC’s overseas arm of the state-owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has a 24.125 per cent stake in Sudan’s Block 5A. OVL also has a 25 per cent stake in Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Project (Block 1, 2 and 4), which produces 280,000 bpd.

War among the SPLM: when the party is fighting among its people ;)

SPLM warns against contesting as independent candidates

The Chairman of the SPLM Youth League and member of the party’s Political Bureau, Akol Paul Kordit, announced on Tuesday that the party would not allow any of its members to stand as independent candidates.
Three senior officials of the party have officially declared their independent candidacy for governorship. These include Southern Sudan President’s advisor on Diplomatic Affairs, Alfred Lado Gore for Central Equatoria state, the state minister of Energy and Mining in the Government of National Unity, Angelina Jany Teny for Unity state and the incumbent governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloysius Emor Ojetuk.
Jonglei state was also reported to have been processing for an independent candidacy for governorship while many others across the region considered contesting for parliamentary seats as independent candidates.
There are growing fears in the SPLM leadership that many of the candidates nominated by the Political Bureau in Juba may lose elections to independent party candidates who were initially nominated by the people and the Electoral Colleges in the states, but dropped by the Bureau.

SPLM is falling in the old one party trappe. We are supporting the construction of an African China like both in South and North. Well, Uganda and Rwanda are the model for South and they are not really democratically open. Sometimes, I really wonder if we do have a memory. Enlightened dictatorship were the failed solution of the 70th. Now we are building sustainable dictatorship... Could someone explain me what is the difference?

M-A Lagrange
02-02-2010, 09:21 AM
First of all, some quick comments on the AU meeting and the Sudan question:

B]Jean Ping redoute le chaos au Soudan
[/B]Est ce que l’indépendance du sud Soudan ne va pas amener les autres acteurs au Darfour et ailleurs à demander comme le Sud Soudan une indépendance qu’il ne demande pas aujourd’hui etc etc. Alors si ce scenario catastrophe qui j’espère n’arrivera pas se produit alors nous sommes partis dans une situation de chaos.

As usual, Mr Ping is asking the million dollars question: what would be the consequences of South Sudan independence on the Darfur conflict?
Will Sudan become an African Poland? Basically, a never ending source of conflicts in the future. Looking at European History shows quickly that splitting a country is several pieces just does not work.
CPA was meant to bring peace but partiction, especially as South is not capable to administrate itself, is a trigger puller "en puissance".

Le Kenya s'engage à la reconstruction du Sud Soudan

Un projet ferroviaire relancé au Sud
Costello Garang Ring Lual, conseiller spécial du président du Sud Soudan, est parvenu à intéresser une firme américaine au projet ferroviaire entre Juba et Tororo.

Like in the Wild Wild West, civilization comes with the train? It looks like a bad remake of a Sergio Leones film. But what are the other options?
Developing transport in South Sudan is vital for the economy. But the real question is linking what with who?
Train is may be the best idea for macro development, but the real challenge is at micro level. Yes South Sudan needs a big communication way to export the oil (Not refined in South by the way) but what South needs first is real roads to link cities together. What is the use to put efforts on agriculture if the targeted market is export? Once again, the logic of State Building is driven by the necessity to build the centralized administration apparatus seen as the key to stability. But the best key for stability is first to have a self sufficient country. As long as South will depend on imports for basic food: the conflict possibility will be there.
The people… Big heads seems to always forget that part of the Clausewitz trinity: the people. Elections do not keep quiet the people as efficiently as a full belly… State Building needs a major reform and needs to look at the people as THE KEY actor rather than a ex nihilo empowered intelligencia and elite which get its legitimacy from international economical and political interest rather than from popular legitimacy. David Kilcullen was already pointing this bias several years ago…

Sudan/Chad: almost 100 days of ordeal for abducted staff members Gauthier Lefèvre and Laurent Maurice
This Saturday, 30 January, will mark 100 days of captivity for our colleague Gauthier. For Laurent the ordeal will also last 100 days unless he's freed before 17 February. We are continuing to do everything we can to bring about the safe and rapid release of our colleagues. We are in contact with the abductors and with the national and local authorities and are following developments closely.

Our hearts go out to our colleagues and their families. ICRC staff, not only in our Geneva headquarters but all over the world, have shown great support and deep concern throughout this crisis.

And let me insist: we will continue to do everything we can, for as long as is necessary, to bring about the safe and rapid release of Gauthier and Laurent.

Because it makes 100 days and we cannot forget them.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting!

M-A Lagrange
02-16-2010, 11:03 AM
Back from several weeks of rest, I will try to restart slowly this threat. Before jumping in the dark waters of the electoral process in South Sudan and its war potential, I will just have a comment on the problematic of justice in State Building.

’Calm’ returns to Jonglei’s Twic East after sectional fighting
Hand axes, spears and other metal weapons claimed lives and caused injuries in the Wangulei clashes. Guns were not used on Thursday or the death toll could have been different, witnesses say, crediting government disarmament efforts with residents of Twic East and neighboring counties ending last month.
Both Dacuek and Ayual are contesting ownership of Wangulei Payam center and cattle camps in the Toch (wetland between the River Nile tributaries) west of Nyuak. The case, which had never before caused inter-sectional clashes, was brought before the county authority and a seven-judge committee was formed to deal with it. According to officials, the jury declared that three cattle camps in the Toch belong to Dacuek while the payam headquarters at Wangulei is government-owned. There are more than 3 cattle camps in the Toch. This means that the two sections could share the dry season grazing land as usual as well as the Payam center.
Ayual disputed the court’s verdict and decided to appeal. Then, in an incident that is said to have sparked the fighting, a dancing Dacuek youth started caning an Ayual woman at the Payam center on Thursday and subsequently confronted anyone siding with her, according to attendants of victims of the clashes being nursed here in Bor.
An account from Dacuek side is totally reversed: it claims that Ayual attacked the Dacuek on Thursday evening when they were dancing in Wangulei. Those who talked to the Sudan Tribune from Ayual explained that the court’s decision giving Dacuek three cattle camps of Guar, Pathoor and Pakat is unacceptable. As for Wangulei, Ayual say the government’s ownership should not prevent them from exercising traditional land rights. Ayual strongly denied igniting the clashes that killed three people from their side. A fourth man, also from Ayual, was killed 2 days before the inter-sectional feuding and relatives say his death is related to the latest fight.

This brief article shows quite well how it’s difficult to implement justice in a new “built from scratch” country.
What we have to really get is that justice is not really what people are looking for and at when we talk about justice in state building. In that particular case, the problem lies on who will access cattle camps. The justice decision is a matter of life and death for the people who are concerned. It seems a little disproportionate when you think about it: we are talking about cows…
But this is probably one of the reasons implementing justice becomes so complicate (even before going to the problematic of rule of law and social contract…). What are seen as simple, easy cases for us are in deed explosive issue. A little like every time a cop issues a ticket you end up with a gun fight. One of the main problematic is the concept of independent justice. In most of the State Building manuals, it is recommended to go for traditional justice. His does have good points:
1) the justice apparatus is recognized by everybody
2) the justice apparatus and the judges reflects the society
3) justice is provided through a common and shared base
But it does have bad points:
1) it is not an “impartial” justice based on legal texts. Then you end up with too classical modern/traditional justice opposition
2) judges are not always competent and justice is some times (most of the time in fact) resumed to corruption or formal like immediate justice
3) there are no inter communities formal judicial process
I do not have the solution for this, but one of the many mistakes I have seen and am witnessing is to give judicial authority to traditional authorities without even taking time to train them, knowing which judicial system is being empowered and judges’ limits of competencies.
The other problematic that this case is clearly the State capacity to impose inter ethnic justice decision. Training police and building up police capacities always seems to be the last wheel of the car. In South Sudan, most of the policemen are “old” or “incapable” former military guys. The first real training I have seen took place few months ago, 4 years after the peace agreement was signed. And that is may be where the problem lies.
State building aim to build a civil owned State but basically the civil capacity of “states to be” is built as the last resource or last solution. For 4 years SPLA stand (and keep on standing) on the position that police is not a military activity. The rational behind is 100% right but what I do not get is why the international community did not put more efforts on building the police capacities. In resume, why spend so much time and efforts to build rule of law if there are no efforts being put on building law enforcement capacity?

And one good news (for once) :
One ICRC hostage is free :):):)
For humanitarian reasons...
But one is still keept in captivity! :mad:

For all the soft rebel with a cause: keep on fighting men!

M-A Lagrange
02-23-2010, 07:54 PM
Egypt seeking a delay to Sudan national elections & referendum: report

The London based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper quoted informed sources in Khartoum as saying that the proposal was put forward during the summit hosted by Cairo between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) over the last three days.
However, an official at the National Elections Committee (NEC) told the newspaper that such a move would create confusion in the whole process which was already rescheduled two times.
The former Prime Minister Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi told reporters after meeting with SPLM Chairman and South Sudan president Salva Kiir that it is preferable to push elections in order to give time for peace to be realized in Darfur.

Egypt would never have made such a move without any back up on this. It is said that the issue is Darfur peace…

The good point is:

Peace partners agree to increase southern Sudan parliamentary seats

The agreement, however, ends quarrel by the National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement over the result of the fifth census conducted last year. The SPLM threatened to not participate in the elections of national parliament if the dispute in not resolved.
Luka Biong the minister at the presidency of southern Sudan government said that the presidency in a meeting held on Sunday agreed to increase 40 parliamentary seats to southern Sudan in the national parliament. He added they will be appointed based on election results.
However, Mohamed el-Hassan Al-Amin, National Assembly Deputy Speaker, marked his distance from what Biong said about the 40 seats adding latest understanding between the two parties reached 34 members of parliament underscoring the SPLM demands 40 seats.
Al-Amin further said that the proportional representation is the most appropriate mechanism to increase the representation of Southerners in the parliament from 21% to 25%. He added this should include women’s constituencies.
The south accuses the north of manipulating the results of the census to deny the south adequate representation in parliament, commensurate with its size, in order to pass self-serving legislation.

Let see what this will give. Anyways, the elections will not be post pound. The referendum will happen. And all the powers of the region are scaling up their borders police and watching Sudan “so called” democratic change.

Someome was telling me that Russia was making sure that the balance of power would not change in the region because of the elections… Their main policy would be to arm everybody to make sure that they can go to an infinite war in Sudan.
I sometime wonder if the biggest peace spoilers are not “us”, the weapons manufacturers. Without countries as Sudan what will we do with all our stocks of anmunitions…

Since its military coup of 1989 the NCP group maintained its dictatorship in Sudan through the control of executive, legislative and judicial organs together with the absence of impartiality in the public services.

It’s funny the guy is addressing NCP but actually this does fit for SPLM. All what he says about NCP is true for SPLM. Fake census, denial of state services…
Apparently SPLM did learn its lesson.

M-A Lagrange
02-26-2010, 02:47 PM
No rescheduling for elections, Sudan president says

The Sudanese president and head of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) Omer Hassan Al-Bashir emphasized today that elections will be held on time despite mounting calls by opposition groups that they be postponed.
He said that the western region of Darfur is now secure and stable which eliminates any justification for postponing the elections, noting that the 1986 polls were not delayed due to the war in the South.
The SPLM has vehemently refused any move to postpone the referendum process and many think tank groups fear a return to civil war should the self determination process be disrupted. However, many post-referendum issues have yet to be addressed particularly nationality, national debt, water agreement with the border demarcation process well behind schedule.

So elections will take place at planned date. Anyways, it was almost impossible to postpound those elections. This even if the process to educate the population in South is absolutely not fully completed…

Sudan’s NCP says committed to implementing Islamic law

Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) reiterated its position on implementing Islamic Shari’a law in the country as part of its elections programme.
This week at a meeting between NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Cairo hosted by the Egyptian government discussed the issue of Islamic law implementation. Both sides were deadlocked on their stances with SPLM calling for a secular state.
But the Sudanese Undersecretary of Foreign affairs Mutrif Sideeg and member of the NCP delegation said that this position is not negotiable.
“We will not abandon our Shari’a nor do we call on the others to accept what they do not accept. We accepted the principle that citizenship is the basis of rights and duties, and we have accepted the principle of unity in diversity, and therefore will not commit others to what we are committed to. We do not accept that the others void our personality, religion and identity under any circumstances,” he said.
Currently semi-autonomous South Sudan is excluded from the application of Islamic law but observers say that this has deepened the rift between North and the South and diminished hopes of making unity attractive in the 2011 referendum.

Well, the question of imposing Sharia has been one of the many trigger of the South Sudan war. But in that case, it is definitevely the Sudan Unity policy that is targetted.
South will never accept and North will never drop it. But those NCP is targetting are the international community.
Unity is attractive basically for none of the sudanese but partition is not attractive for Sudan’s neightbors nor the international community. This mainly due to the SPLM poor management of the South. (When you have to choose between pest and cholera…). By putting Sharia high on the sunlight, NCP is just causing problems to western powers.
On one hand, they sign a peace agreement for Darfur to please West, on the other hand they spoil West hopes to have Sudan remaining united by promoting Sharia…

I really wonder how North will be able to conduct another double front war in 2012/2013… Or even before. Imposing Sharia is also a great opportunity for North to avoid 2012 referedum. If Bashir is re elected (And he will surely be) and he really goes hard on imposing Sharia in the whole country (North and South), this will definitevely be concidered as a casus belli by South. (And also as a grave breach in the CPA). Then no referendum, an immediat partition and a war that South is not necerely ready to fight at that point of time. And this despite rushing to arm itself.

03-02-2010, 07:01 PM
U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction Program Helps Sudan Overcome Legacies of War

The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/03/137529.htm) in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has been helping the Sudanese people in the Nuba Mountains region, in Kassala State, Blue Nile State, and throughout much of South Sudan to confront these threats with nearly $20 million in humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons destruction assistance since 2005 as part of the U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) Program in Sudan.

M-A Lagrange
03-03-2010, 01:30 PM
Oil revenue in Sudan slashed by 60% in 2009: GoSS

March 1, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The proceeds from oil exports in Sudan has declined by a staggering 60% in 2009 with revenues measuring approximately $2.5 billion compared to $ 6.5 billion a year ago, according to a report compiled by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS).
The report said that oil prices reached an all time high of $132 in mid-2008 before dropping to $35 in the first quarter of 2009.
The global financial crisis that started in late 2008 has hit hard the economic activity throughout the world reducing demand for oil.
Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Sudan’s foreign exchange reserves were sunk across the years from $2 billion in mid-2008 to $300 million in March 2009, which covers only 2 weeks of imports.
The IMF said this was caused by the fall in oil prices, which is Sudan’s main export, among other things.
The world financial body criticized Sudan’s 2009 budget saying that its underlying assumptions proved wrong with forecasted oil price of $65 per barrel compared to updated projected figures of $36.8 for 2009 and $44.7 in 2010.
GoSS said that the federal government’s share of oil production in 2009 was 83.7 million barrels, while the share of partners was around 77.1 million barrels. Total revenue from oil of amounted about $ 1.5 billion while oil used in domestic refineries totaled $ 1.06.
The share of the federal government was approximately $ 1.4 billion while GoSS share was $ 1.06 billion.
In Abyei, the report said that oil revenues there reached about $215.3 million with $64.6 million going to the Federal Government, $67.2 million to GoSS, $4.1 million each to the states of South Kordofan, Warrap, tribes of Dinka Ngok and Misseriya and $66.8 million to Abyei fund.
Some 98 per cent of south Sudan’s non-aid income comes from oil, while the corresponding figure for the north is 60-70 per cent
About 75 per cent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3bn barrels are in the south but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north. The south needs Khartoum’s co-operation to sell its oil; the north needs revenues from its neighbor’s resources.
Last month a senior GoSS official said that the South may continue to share oil proceeds with the North for a limited time following secession to prevent an economic collapse there.
The separation of Sudan into a two states will deny the North billions of dollars in revenue generating from vast oilfields in the south of the country. Currently the North and the South are splitting the proceeds of crude in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005.

One of the comments on this article shows pretty clearly how the situation is in fact: the pipes and the oil plants are in North. So oil which is the main source of revenues from South is still in the hands of North.
In case of war, as South seems to be more and more willing, access to oil and revenues will still be an issue for South.
Yes they can “pre sell” their oil but for how long?
Also, as we all know, low cost wars do not exist. Partition and the war that will result in it just after will only put South under another dependency. .

In a very interesting article from Les Afriques (unfortunately in French), Sudan wars are analysed as the first cold war like opposition between US and China. I recommend it.
Also, I recommend this article from panapress. http://www.panapress.com/newslatf.asp?code=eng038855&dte=15/02/2010
Despite using old data, the article shows quite well why the construction of a pipeline between South Sudan and Kenya is not something for tomorrow, especially if it is China who builds it.
Unfortunately, Uganda is not the best and quickest way to the sea.

What intrigues me in that war to come story is the position of Russia. But may be Stan can provide an interesting light on that particular point. Selling weapons is not really a position. Especially as Small arms reports tend to prove that China is the biggest dealer in the place.
I witnessed Russia interest for Africa re rise in DRC. I would be surprise if they just play on the replacement bench for the coming North/South round.

M-A Lagrange
03-08-2010, 02:02 PM
A partial response on Russia policy over Sudan:

Russia's Special Envoy to Sudan Mikhail Margelov will begin a four-day visit to Sudan on Tuesday, March 9. He will be heading a delegation that includes businessmen.

But more interresting:
Taha, Kiir to represent NCP & SPLM in Kenya’s IGAD summit
March 7, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The First Vice president of Sudan Salva Kiir and 2nd Vice President Ali Osman Taha will fly to Nairobi next week to take part in the extraordinary summit of Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Nairobi that starts on Tuesday, state media reported today.
The conference held primarily with the purpose of bridging differences between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

M-A Lagrange
03-09-2010, 09:16 AM
An interresting analyses of EU policy and forseen challenges:

EU policy in Sudan, 2010-2011
The European Union is closely following the evolution of the situation as the current events could lead to a resumption of the conflict between North and South, that in the past claimed two million lives and displaced four million persons in the region and abroad. Although the conflict in Darfur is still not solved, and there are other dormant conflicts in the East, Kordofan, Blue Nile, Nuba mountains and the North, resumption of the North – South conflict would have dire consequences. The instability of Sudan means instability for the region and possible fuelling of other regional conflicts, with important security and humanitarian consequences.
Currently four scenarios can be envisaged for Southern Sudan post 2011 : forced unity, forced secession, agreed unity and agreed secession. While the first two will certainly lead to the resumption of war between North and South, agreed unity may result in the implosion of the South. The scenario for agreed secession, the most likely option if the referendum is respected, has to be closely accompanied by coherent and unified approach of the international community in order to ensure a viable transition.
For the past five years, implementation of the provisions of the CPA has been delayed and within the next 12 months, Sudan’s future as a country will be decided. Before the expiry of the CPA in July 2011 and bearing in mind the high risk of the resumption of hostilities, we are faced with the following choices :
1. To seek a global solution to Sudan’s conflicts, by negotiating an additional protocol for the CPA, which would allow for the postponement of national elections by 6 months to a year. Within this time frame, a permanent cease fire would be put in place in Darfur, allowing for the inclusion of Darfur’s population in the elections. There would have to be a change in the laws to provide for free and fair elections, and allow for post 2011 referendum arrangements. This would have to be ensured by a coherent and unified international community approach (3) .
2. To address issues separately, to continue with the elections timeframe, to support the 2011 referendum and to focus on post-2011 referendum arrangements. Separately, to work on the negotiation of a Darfur ceasefire and peace agreement, and advance from there on the preparation of a conducive environment for the next elections. This implies a unified IC approach, and a “carrot-and- stick” policy for North and South to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
3. To delink the presidential elections from the CPA and from the referendum. The elections would be postponed until a conducive environment is in place – within a reasonable time frame - while support would be given to measures going in that direction, independent from the referendum. The referendum and post-referendum arrangements based on interdependence would be supported (5) , win-win strategies would be developed for collaboration between North and South, and development and governance in Southern Sudan would be supported to prevent it from being born as a failed state.
Promote a settlement on Darfur with the utmost urgency.

M-A Lagrange
03-15-2010, 08:19 PM
Sudan opposition want elections moved to November, slams UNMIS official
A number of presidential candidates in Sudan has jointly called on the April elections to be postponed by seven months till next November and submitted a proposed formation for the National elections committee (NEC).
The Umma Party runner for president Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi hosted a meeting at his residence in Omdurman agreed on steps that need to be taken for achieving democratic transformation and establishing an "impartial" board to monitor the work of the NEC in terms of administration and finances, creating a body consisting of presidential nominees with rotating head, rescheduling elections to resolve a number outstanding issues.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) representative at the summit Ibrahim Ghandour promised to convey the demands to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and arrange a meeting with them to discuss their requests.
Absent from the meeting were the candidates from the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman, Democratic Unionist Party Hatim Al-Sir, Sudan Communist Party Mohamed Ibrahim Nugud. It was not immediately clear why they did not attend.

This has been the big debate for the past weeks. But finally, NEC decided to have the election in April as planned.
During that time campaign goes as planed: free, fair and through debate:

Biemnom MP assassinated in Juba
March 14, 2010, (KHARTOUM) — Honorable Bol Deng Kot was slain by unknown uniformed men on Wednesday, March 10, resulting in condemnation by authorities and the citizenry of Biemnon county of the southern state of Unity.
Honorable Bol Deng Kot was a member of parliament in the regional legislative assembly in Juba, representing Biemnom constituency as a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
Without the endorsement of the SPLM Political Bureau, he chose to stand as an independent candidate. But his popularity in the area compelled SPLM leadership to promise him a parliamentary seat from among the 40 seats allocated to SPLM after the latest negotiations with the ruling National Congress Party.http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/showRecord_fr.php?RecordId=32438

SPLM is quite tuff on independant candidates all over the place. It is clear that the transition from military to political organisation and the possibility to face electoral defeat is difficult for them.
South America has shown that former military organisations have the tendancy to loose elections. And the temptation to resolve that probem through force is high.

An interresting report from NRC
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/NRC_SouthernSudan2010_MitigatingAHumanitarianDisas ter.pdf

The border is not set and it does create problems. Last week the SPLA have announced that nomads from North did attack a SPLA out post in the border area.
(French media link below)

M-A Lagrange
03-23-2010, 08:38 AM
South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.

Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.

The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.

This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…

On the other side…

Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.

Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…

M-A Lagrange
03-25-2010, 01:07 PM
From reuter

Monitoring Hitler election
Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Luis Moreno-Ocampo made the remarks during a press conference in Brussels where he met with European Union (EU) officials.
"It’s like monitoring a Hitler election.... The EU’s observers on the ground are facing "a big challenge," Moreno-Ocampo told a press conference in Brussels" Ocampo said.
The ICC indicted Bashir last year on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, but stopped short of including a charge of genocide. The United Nations says as many as 300,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted in Darfur in 2003, although Sudan rejects that figure.
Well, monitoring the SPLM is like monitoring the communist party in Staline times… Sudanese are just luky people!:eek:

From Sudan tribune:

Japan to monitor Sudan’s general election
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Tokyo is expected to send 15-20 personnel, including experts from the private sector and local embassy officials. These observers will work with those from other nations to inspect polling stations and monitor the counting of votes, reported Nikkei news service today.
Japan’s delegation is expected to remain there until mid-April, when the election results will have been announced.
The elections, to be held April 11-13, will select the president of the republic, the president of South Sudan’s semi-autonomous government, MPs to the national assembly, governors besides the members of regional assemblies.
Last October Japan granted 10 million US dollar to support the electoral process in Sudan. The electoral assistance which is the largest-scale contribution among Japan’s electoral assistances ever provided in Africa, is supplied through the UNDP.
Japan has been actively contributing to the implementation of the CPA in the areas of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR).
After China funding the election, Japan is monitoring it... A future Asian cold war in africa to come:rolleyes:

From AFP :
At North and South border tensions are rising:
(in French)
Misserya and SPLA are fighting each others.
Misseriya claiming for their rights to migrate with their animals from South Kordofan to Unity. And the SPLA saying they are SAF supported forces.
According to SPLA, Misserya have been attacking them with RPG.
SPLA complains that some Misseriya are traveling without children, wife and animals but only weapons and in battle dress.
Also, the UNMO are trying to find the 200 Misseriya combatants but are not capable to locate them...

All the nomads I know in the area are traveling with battle dress and AK or RPG…

And finally the other side… Of the resources cake:

Beltone to launch $1 bln Sudan agriculture fund
CAIRO – Egypt’s Beltone Private Equity and Sudan’s Kenana Sugar Company will launch a $1 billion agricultural investment fund next week, Beltone said on Tuesday.
Gulf and other Arab countries have been investing in a range of farming projects in Sudan, Africa’s biggest country by area and long viewed as having huge agricultural potential.
“We are launching the fund with the aim of deploying up to $1 billion for large-scale agricultural projects,” Osama Rashad, Beltone’s investor relations manager told Reuters, adding that the fund would be launched on Monday in Khartoum.
The vehicle will be called Mahaseel Agricultural Investment Fund.
Beltone private equity, a subsidiary of Beltone Partners, had over 2.1 billion Egyptian pounds in assets under management at the end of February 2010, mostly in real estate and retail.
Kenana produces 400,000 tonnes of sugar a year. Its biggest shareholders are the Sudanese government with 35.63 percent, the Kuwait Investment Authority with 30.5 percent and the government of Saudi Arabia with 10.92 percent, the firm’s website said.
The company’s farms span over 200,000 feddans (84,000 hectares) in Sudan. ($1=5.488 Egyptian pounds) (Writing by Shaimaa Fayed; Editing by Greg Mahlich)

Who said that oil isthe most important in a region where almost everyone is facing food deficit?

M-A Lagrange
03-27-2010, 11:55 AM
Washington is prepared for South Sudan secession – Gration
"Looking at the realities on the ground, it is highly likely that the south will chose independence," Gration said.
Refugees International, a US based group in a report released today urged the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and donor governments to draw up plans for possible conflict around the 2011 referendum.
Ahead of the multiparty election and the referendum of 2011, the group said the US and international community "must do everything possible to ensure that the governments in north and south Sudan reach agreement on outstanding issues before the referendum, the humanitarian community must simultaneously prepare to respond if conflict erupts around the upcoming political events".
"I don’t see that the north has to reinvade the south and start the war again," Gration said. "If we can resolve these issues, I think there is a fairly good chance that ... the south can have a civil divorce, not a civil war."

I fully agree there are very few reasons why North would reinvade South. But there are many reason for the South to invade North.
First of them is that it’s pay back time for the South. Not the best reason but a real one.
Secondly, the oil payment. With all the money North has to give back and is not willing to… I know many countries who would go to war.
Finally: finish Garang job and change the North… Utopia… :rolleyes:

Lakes’ Agaar-Pakam and Warrap’s Luanyjang sign peace
The communities of Dinka Agaar-Pakam of Rumbek North County of Lakes State and Luanyjang of Tonj East County of Warap State have agreed to settle their differences on Tuesday at the end of a three day peace and reconciliation conference held in Wunlit payam of Tonj East County.

The country is just a mosaic of peace agreements between tribes and sometimes including the government…
Preventing civil war is also one of the major concern. And what is better than a war with North to hide a internal civil war and “ethnic cleasing”?

M-A Lagrange
03-29-2010, 02:44 PM
Top UN Official Stresses National Ownership of Upcoming Elections

"Elections need to take place according to timelines subscribed by the CPA [Comprehensive Peace Agreement], and they have to be conducted in a conducive atmosphere to ensure a free and fair process," said Haile Menkerios today in Khartoum, in his first press conference since becoming the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) and head of UNMIS.
"The CPA, however, is an agreement by the two Parties. And should the two Parties decide whether to have the elections on time or should they want to postpone them for a time, it is up to them," the Special Representative added.

I believe it's a new approach for ownership: this belongs to me so I have the right to not do it. With election and democratization it's kind of funny/fuzzy.
I own elections so I have the right to not have it... But I stay a legitimete populace representative government.

Personnally, I love it!;)
And now, ladies and gentlemen, welcome the democraticly non elected dictators! Super cool!:mad::cool::eek:

Just for fun, here is the link for the Amnesty international sudan election observers briefing:

M-A Lagrange
04-01-2010, 01:39 PM
Yassir Arman quits Sudan presidential poll

A leading contender for president of Sudan has withdrawn his candidacy, casting more doubt over the country’s first fully-contested poll since 1986.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) said Yassir Arman would not stand against President Omar al-Bashir.
The SPLM – former rebels from the south – blamed the continuing conflict in the Darfur region and “electoral irregularities” for his withdrawal.


Some even speak of a secret agreement:

Sudan opposition stunned by Arman’s withdrawal amid talk of secret NCP-SPLM deal

SPLM can say what ever they want, this was proposed to them longtime ago by Bashir.
There is nothing secret neither: NCP did not propose candidates for the Souh sudan presidentitial post neither for the States Governors.

Bashir and Kiir shared the cake and f### ##u the people, the West and your stupid elections...
Welcome in the new democratic Sudan!

Sometimes we should be a little harder with the people we help for decades!:mad:

M-A Lagrange
04-04-2010, 09:16 PM
Is the boycott of the election really a surprise in Sudan? That’s the real question. The CPA, the core agreement leading to those elections has been signed by 2 parties only: NCP (represented by Bashir) and SPLM (represented by Garang).
What was the meaning of the CPA at that time? The opening of Sudan to democracy? Absolutely not!
It was a peace agreement between two opponents to cease the conflict. Democratisation of Sudan was like the sherry on the top of the cake, a collateral effect of the process. It was Garang objective. But Garang is no more and the CPA became the baseline agreement for the separation of Sudan in 2 independent bodies.
If you look closely at the election process in Sudan you can see that NCP is almost not present in South (at least not at decision making level). SPLM had only to find a good argument that would please the opinion and blame Bashir to do the same in North. And that’s what they did.

Did we really want to have a democratic Sudan?
Definitively not!
South Sudan is not unified and even less united. In most of the country, SPLA, SSPS and other organised forces are not capable to hold the monopoly of violence. So they cannot rule the place by the law as they do not have the capacity to enforce the law. The Rule of Law approach failed not because SPLM was not capable (SPLM capable of it is another question) but because the State administration was not functioning. So, for external and regional powers, South Sudan is more stable if there is a fake democracy.
In North, Rule of Law could have been implemented. But do regional and external powers want extremist Muslim parties in power. Does Egypt accept the idea to have a Muslim Brotherhood safe heaven as neighbour? Do the Western countries loose their influence in the sub region by allowing an extremist Muslim party to come in power? Absolutely not and every body acknowledge it.
The end of stabilization being stability in the country but also in the sub region, Sudan elections were doomed since the very first day John Garang died.

So what went wrong?
It’s only that the comprehension of CPA has evolved but not the position of bodies as the Carter Center or international NGO.
SPLM and NCP took beats and pieces of CPA as a draft of they separation agreement. And SPLM is not a master player...

What are Sudan elections really questioning in stabilization process is the definition of the end.
Is “fair and transparent democratic Nation” stabilization operation’s end?
During Cold War, the political model was at stake as it was reflecting an opposition of 2 economical models (Capitalism VS Communism). Nowadays, the real post Cold War consensus is the supremacy of capitalistic economical model but certainly not the democratic political model. But we are still focussed on the Cold War consensus of installation of democratic process as the end.
Stabilization operations, to be successful have to be revised. In highly economically degraded environment, what builds a real State legitimacy is not only the respect of the law but it is capacity to provide an economically population centric protective environment.
Otherwise, we will always end up with unstable regimes, elected but non democratic, weak and incapable to protect their population… And finally delaying wars but never ending them.
May be buying time is all what we can do.

M-A Lagrange
04-06-2010, 02:50 PM
Renewed Conflict in Sudan

A key challenge facing the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the civil war in Sudan is whether the January 2011 referendum in which the South and the oil-rich region of Abeyi can vote to secede from the North is honored. Other triggers for renewed conflict between the north and south include political manipulation of the forthcoming general elections by the ruling party, failure to complete border demarcation prior to the referendum, and disagreement over-post referendum oil revenue distribution. The author calls on all stakeholders to enforce the CPA but singles out the United States as pivotal. To this end, she urges the United States and the international community to unequivocally back southern self-determination through robust diplomatic engagement so that neither party has incentive to renege on its commitments to the CPA. The author also recommends that the United States not endorse an election result that falls short of the minimal standards of credibility, which should be clearly defined in advance. Finally, she urges the United States to lead in preparing for the highly probable result of a separate southern Sudan.

An interesting communication from council of Foreign Relations

Otherwise, an interesting development of the election boycott:

Withdrawn SPLM candidate violated Elections Act, says NEC
According to NEC’s Jersa Kide, Mr. Arman’s recent withdrawal should have taken place within a period of not less than 45 days prior to polling day, provided he notified the Commission of his actions in a signed written form that would have been legally authenticated.
Citing section 45 (3) of the 2008 Act, the NEC official said, "The candidate shall not withdraw her/his nomination after the period specified in section (1) and his name shall be included on the ballot paper and any vote cast for him/her on polling day shall be deemed valid".http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34652

And the US to wonder if some delay could be a solution. With Bashir insulting everyone at the end:

Despite the crazy talk from Bashir and the US and SPLM playing at should I go or should I stay… NEC is doing what looks to me as what JMM describes as lawfare. Well, at least to a fuzzy move to actually force SPLM to stay in the course and make those election credible.
I just do not see the benefit. Let's dream and imagine that SPLM candidate in North is elected while boycotting the elections. I do not see Bashir and SAF nicely and fairly saying: we lost, please take the keys of the office.
But by saying SPLM cannot redraw now, Bashir is buying credibility, at least legally. Rule of law, rule of law...

And here is what Moscow thinks about the situation: (Sorry the link is in french)

Basically Moscow is saying let’s go for elections. For them, the elections have to happen because of Darfur peace process.
It’s a dam fair and bright comment. The only out come of those elections, part from an increase of tensions between North and South ARE the Doha agreement.

M-A Lagrange
04-10-2010, 07:29 AM
After the post punk clash rumba between SPLM and NCP, US special envoy has managed to convince SPLM to stay!

Gration welcomes SPLM participation in Northern Sudan elections

Gration, who seemed to express satisfaction with the SPLM’s strategic political priorities, said his office was ready to assist in the contentious issues between the two peace-partners [NCP and SPLM] so that referendum on independence of Southern Sudan would be conducted as scheduled for January 2011.


But does that mean the peace process for soft separation is still going on?

The thing being: by all means, as Mr Gation said so clearly, SPLM and NCP have to stay in power up to the referendum because they signed the peace agreement! After…

M-A Lagrange
04-11-2010, 11:36 AM
Sudanese say frustrated by Arman withdrawal from presidential race
While northern Sudanese who supported him considered his withdrawal as clear sign of the will of SPLM leadership to "focus" on the southern part of the country preparing for separation by January 2010.
"His withdrawal was not fair and serious," said Mustafa who is a SPLM member. The young man confessed that he does not believe in the official version given by the leadership adding “many in Juba wanted him to pullout since a while."
"We have been betrayed by separatists in Juba" he said.
Aware of such reaction Riek Machar, the SPLM deputy chairman this week was keen to say that Arman "advocated for his withdrawal. We had tried to convince him for weeks not to do that, but he insisted that he wanted it done that way".
Further after the pullout of SPLM nominees in northern Sudan for legislative and states elections, Kiir and Machar reiterated that this decision was taken by the northern sector. But Yasir reiterated they implemented the party’s decision.
Kiir and Arman stressed yesterday that there was no division with the SPLM over the boycott of elections despite their contradictory statement.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34716

Votes for Arman Still Valid: Elections Body
The Deputy Chairman of the Southern Sudan High Elections Committee (SSHEC) Anthony Ariki Lowly has said that the withdrawal of the SPLM candidate for the post of the President of the Republic of the Sudan is not valid and he remains a candidate.

M-A Lagrange
04-12-2010, 02:10 PM
By embarking only on a partial boycott (withdrawing its presidential candidate and pulling out of regional elections in Darfur only), the SPLM is playing a two-level game. On one level, it hedges its Darfurian support by declaring solidarity with the position of insurgents there. A fair election is impossible amidst prevailing political roadblocks. Withdrawal of European election monitors from the region this week was a belated acknowledgement by the EU of this sad reality. At another level, SPLM's partial boycott stops short of the outright provocation that would hand Al-Bashir and his supporters an excuse to complicate the south's independence bid.
The US, like the EU, wants the elections to go ahead. But Washington's Sudan strategy is even more dependent on the NCP-SPLM accommodation. America has invested huge political capital in the North-South agreement, and sees the conduct of this month's elections as central to actualising the CPA. The US tolerates a narrow elite accommodation in the hope that it gives South Sudan a final say on its own future and helps transform the drawn-out North-South conflict. It is a seductive but deeply flawed strategy in view of numerous unresolved questions, many of them vital to a successful southern referendum: internal border demarcation and oil revenue allocations, tensions over Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and continuing borderland conflicts fuelled by Al-Bashir's ethnic militarisation strategies.

A policy based solely on support for elitist deals carries significant risks. First, it will leave many key Sudanese players on the sidelines – including powerful northern oppositions like the Umma party of former Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi, which has opted to boycott. Second, elite accommodation on the elections confers Al-Bashir with a veneer of legitimacy, however tenuous, and could be ultimately self-defeating for Western and African efforts to broker a solution in Darfur. A one-sided election this year and possible southern secession next year, invariably strengthens the NCP's control over Sudan's north, making negotiated settlements difficult in Darfur and other restive peripheries.

Encouraging a more inclusive political dialogue will not be easy, but significant EU aid largesse should provide some leverage. If there is no change from the elitist approach, Sudan's still existent opportunity to transform itself would be permanently lost. In that case, it will be at a cost to Sudan's peoples and many far beyond the epicentres of its instabilities."

He just said it much better than me and resumes most of the key points why stabilization/post conflict recovery missions fail.

M-A Lagrange
04-16-2010, 08:55 AM
The not so fine tuned policy to keep NCP and SPLM in power may not work. At least for the people.

Sudan’s NCP accuses opposition of seeking to topple post-election government.

"[The opposition groups] are not going to recognize the outcome of the elections and they are going to go to the streets and try to change the regime ... through conflict, riots," Sudan presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie told reporters at a briefing.


M-A Lagrange
04-18-2010, 07:53 AM
JMA, Ken, it's a Sudan threat here! And oriented on stabilization and State building! :mad: ;), Go to the Zimbabwe one to discuss Bob eradication :D
I may support the missile option by the way.

By the way, here are some preliminary results from elections:

27 MPs declared winners by default in Sudan elections

In the national parliament, the NEC said five MPs have been elected by acclamations, four among them in southern Sudan, are members of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) while one from the National Congress Party (NCP) elected in eastern Sudan.
The four SPLM winners for the National Assembly are – the following is phonetic transcription from Arabic language – 1- Angelo James Splitro, Central Equatoria, Juba West, 2- Atem Garang Deng, Jonglei, Bor, 3- Johnson Jonbiko Kwlang, Lakes State, Yirol West and 4- Waal Deng, Warrap, Gogrial West. The fifth MP chosen by acclamation is Mahmoud Ali Beatai, Kassala, Hemshkourib, the National Congress Party.
The electoral board also announced that four MPs are elected by default for the Southern Sudan legislative Assembly. All of them are members of the SPLM. 1- Ngor Marc Lotidi, Eastern Equatoria, Kapoeta North, 2- Marc Lochabi, Eastern Equatoria, South Kapoeta, 3- Lino Makina, western Equatoria 4- David Deng Athorbi, Lakes state, Yirol west.

On Wednesday, the NEC decided to re-run elections in 33 national and regional constituencies, 15 for the national parliament and 18 in different states largely in northern Sudan.
The electoral body admitted printing errors. Ballots in the concerned constituencies were missing candidate’s symbols in other cases the logos were swapped. The elections in these areas are expected to be held within 60 days as provided in the electoral law.


Sudan’s Turabi threatens tougher stance over ’fraudulent’ elections

"Everything is totally corrupt. We are fed up and we will never recognize these elections," the DUP’s Salah al-Basha told Reuters yesterday.

Prior to the vote, Al-Basha said the party was sure to win the governorships of at least six states. Friday he said it looked to have won none.

Hatim al-Sir, the DUP candidate who ran against Bashir in the presidential race, said he would not recognize the results.


An unexpected result? North just implose while South become a military regime... War may come sooner than expected and may be not from where everybody thought.

04-18-2010, 10:40 AM
Moderators Note

In response to MA's critique that some disturbance in this thread by a series of posts speculating on the role of the external, or great powers in Africa, in places like Zimbabwe and what exactly will China do? I have created a new thread for the discussion and moved some of the posts to here and please discuss the issues there, not in this Sudanese thread.

The new thread is 'The role of non-African powers in Africa: a discussion':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=10188

M-A Lagrange
04-20-2010, 08:44 AM
Some reactions from various countries in the world.
And sorry, still nothing from China. But does China reaction on democratic opening really count? Let say yes but not that much in fact as they just target natural resources and will support any kind of regime which is commercially favorable to them, democratic or not.

African and Arabs organisations praise the conduct of Sudanese elections

"We cannot say that the Sudanese elections have met international standards, but that does not reduce what has happened, which is an important transition," said Salah Halima the head of AL mission in Khartoum today.
"What happened in Sudan was a historical event and a great achievement for Sudanese people," said Kunle Adeyemi, who is spokesperson of the AU observer mission in Sudan chaired by John Kufuor the former President of Ghana. "Looking into the fact this is a country that had not had a multi-party election for almost a generation... to say they are free and fair, to the best of our knowledge we have no reason to think the contrary," he added.

Russia says Sudan elections fair by ’African standards’
The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said.
"In particular, voting papers were delivered late to polling stations. And polling stations themselves did not open on time. The names of some candidates on the lists were distorted or had the wrong symbols," Margelov told Interfax news agency.
"This country is just emerging from a state of war. Moreover, it seems European experts shouldn’t be applying their observations to the whole country - there is information that for security reasons they did not go to Darfur," he added.
Margelov also said that the opinion of the EU’s observers to the effect that the elections "did not meet the key requirements of the electoral process" were too categorical.
Margelov said the elections in Sudan should be judged by African and not European standards.

South Africa criticizes Sudan’s rush to elections at an "inopportune" time
"It is a great concern. Sudan shares borders with 10 other African states, therefore... if it implodes... it destabilizes many other African countries. So it is in our interests to contribute towards peace and stability in Sudan" Motlanthe said.
"A number of... parties pulled out of the election. That in itself already creates circumstances for the election outcomes not to be accepted by all because they have these concerns about aspects of the preparations. The conditions are not ideal," he said. "These elections could not have happened at a more inopportune time."
"One would have asked for more time for the peace process to take root, as well as the outstanding question relating to the comprehensive peace agreement with the South to be addressed. Then the country as a whole could have gone to a better election," he said.

US says Sudan elections ’not fair and free’, shifts focus to 2011 referendum
"This was not a free and fair election," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "It did not, broadly speaking, meet international standards."
"That said, I think we recognize that the election is a very important step" toward carrying out a 2005 peace deal that gave the south autonomy, a share of oil revenues and a route to independence via referendum by January 2011, he told reporters.
Crowley said many of those elected in the Sudanese poll, however flawed it may have been, would play important roles in whether "we have a credible referenda process that, quite honestly, is likely to yield the emergence of a new country."

It is interresting to see our Russian friend complying with AU and Arab Union statement. Particion of Sudan is also for them an opportunity to retake ground in Africa and counter China in what used to be their play yard... Especially the "Arab" Africa.
It is interresting to see how Sudan destiny is becoming another Berlin conference of 21 century.

To please our ecowarriors friends and to look a little more on the non oil issues, as it was done before, I would like to have a look at water.
I did previously flag the issue of agriculture and will of Arab countries to turn North Sudan in a gigantic wheat plant country. This can only be done with water. And negociations around water are not that easy with non "arab" African countries of the Nil sub region.

Egypt and Sudan approach Nile basin countries on need for cooperation
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir have sent messages to their counterparts in the Nile Basin countries to invite them to set up a commission for the development of relations between them and financing of joint projects, Egyptian media said here Thursday.http://www.apanews.net/public/spip.php?article122374

That was on 16/04

Well, since the results of the negociations were not that good in fact.
Egypt, refering to the 1929 water sharing treaty signed with UK, claim to own Nil water. A 1959 treaty allows to Egypt nearly 87% of the nile water.
Egypt minister of Water even leveled the issue of Nil negociation to national security.
(sorry, the link is in French, I could not find one in English but it does exist, I think on Al Jazeera.)

Eco wars, as ecologicaly (ecology as politic agenda) protracted, may be the new African issue in the coming years. As I was describing in previous post, Sudan secession is not only a oil/ethnical question. It is also a regional ecological resources management question.
This aspect of the crises (in Sudan) is fairly new (please, no climat refugees comment. For those who may see something in this, please go back to your history books and you'll discover that Darfur issue is more than 20 years old.). Or at least not taken in account in the CPA and the signatories parties. But the world food crises passed by and Countries as Uganda or Kenya do neet to secure food production areas such as South Sudan green belt.
So do Egypt and the Arab countries from Arab peninsula.
Sudan secession is no more just a story of oil and religious rights...

04-21-2010, 10:59 PM
CIGI, 20 Apr 10: Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan (http://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/SSRM%20Southern%20Sudan%20v2.pdf)

This edition of the Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan will explore disarmament and security issues in Southern Sudan with an emphasis on the community level, examining how internal and external dynamics contribute to human insecurity. Civilian disarmament is an intractable problem that was not addressed explicitly in the CPA (http://unmis.unmissions.org/Portals/UNMIS/Documents/General/cpa-en.pdf). The problems posed by small arms (http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/pdfs/HSBA-SWP-20-Armed-Violence-Southern-Sudan.pdf) in Southern Sudan are enormous and current measures to contain their impact are inadequate and, in fact, undermine the credibility of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS (http://www.gossmission.org/goss/)).

04-22-2010, 03:55 PM
A quote: "The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said."...

That statement would be considered outrageously racist where I come from. Yet the Russians think they can get away with it?

M-A Lagrange
04-23-2010, 08:34 AM

I fully agree on the fact that it is racist. I am also ashamed that such statements are cautioned by African countries. The will to be seen different is a good reason to lower the standards. And this is one of the many problems in stabilization.
As long as standards will be seen as a foreign thing and process will be done to comply with foreigners view/interrest/funding opportunities, this cannot work. The ownership of a stabilization process starts will the recognition of egal needs/rights for any African populations (or any non "western like" culture).

In that sense the Sudan elections are interresting. Both North or South have agreed to have low standards. But they also agreed on the same level of low standards. And the worst, in Russia position, is that most of African countries will find this statement relevant and clever because it goes with their will to portrait them selves as different.
This is probably the main issue here: ownership of a non natural process at its highest level. How build ownership of a process which is seen as an artificial tool and obstacle to reach war end (secession in the case of South Sudan).

M-A Lagrange
05-11-2010, 08:58 AM
If, as likely, South Sudan decides to secede from the North at its January 2011 self-determination referendum, it will need support from Sudan’s neighbours to ensure the decision is respected and new conflict is prevented.


The ICG on last elections: A MUST READ!!!!

M-A Lagrange
05-16-2010, 03:45 PM
A lot of events happened in a short time (1 month more or less). I was taking some rest from Sudan but followed this closely and waited it to mature to really try to put some comments on the situation.

First of all the situation in North Sudan: Bashir is building up the results of the election and his preparatory work for post referendum war in 2011.

Sudanese security arrests opposition Hassan Turabi
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese security service arrested Saturday the leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi.
"At around midnight (2100 GMT), a group of security officers arriving in three cars, came and took Hassan al-Turabi from his home," his secretary Awad Babakir told AFP.
His family said ignoring the cause of the arrest but his son Sidiq sait it might be related to an interview with a Sudanese daily newspaper where he accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of rigging the elections.


Sudanese army captures Jebel Moon kills over hundred JEM rebels
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Sudanese army has killed over one hundred insurgents and captured a key rebel stronghold area in West Darfur in less than two weeks after the suspension of peace talks by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the army spokesperson said.
"We liberated Jebel Moon from the Justice and Equality Movement, killed 108 rebels and captured 61 alive," said Alsoarmi Khaled, the spokesperson of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
He also said they seized a number of trucks, vehicles and heavy weapons, adding that SAF troops will hunt down remnant rebels who are pulling out of Jebel Moon area.

Secondly, the unsolved problem of Nile water. As Egypt and Sudan, for obvious food security reasons but also to allow Arab Union States to turn this part of the world in their wheat plant, refused any discussions on Nile water, some other stake holders took the initiative to revise the Nile water partition without them:

Some Nile Basin States Sign Deal, Egypt Objects
Four east African countries signed a new deal creating a permanent commission to manage the River Nile's waters on Friday, putting them on a collision course with Egypt and Sudan.

And finally the full messy post election situation of Jongley and Gen Athor refusal to respect population decision.

Renegade general warns civilians to evacuate Bor town before attackSunday 16 May 2010 Send
May 15, 2010 (JUBA) – The renegade general, George Athor Deng, has warned civilians living in Bor town to leave the town before he attacks it in the next few days.
Athor issued the warning through another interview he conducted with the Nairobi-based Sudan Radio Service (SRS). “I believe that within days, my attack will be against Bor town because I have learned that Salva is somebody who only likes fighting and he doesn’t want to talk. So it is for him to listen to what we are saying, I am organizing my forces for Bor town,” he said.


And a letter addressed to Gen Athor and president Kiir from Calgari:
To Gen Athor:

We would also like to urge Gen. George Athor very strongly not to repeat what had happened two weeks ago. We all knew that you were one of the military influential figures of the SPLA/M during the liberation struggle, more committed and loyal to SPLA/M system, but now we wanted you not to obliterate your wonderful legacy by killing your own citizens and fellow Comrades whom you had previously sacrificed your life to rescue them from Arab domination. They offered their precious live voluntarily during the movement for the name of our mother land, human rights and freedom to all marginalized people of Sudan.
To president Kiir:

We really appeal to GoSS and SPLM leadership to forgive General Deng since continuation of this conflict will claim more lives of our civilians and soldiers while we all want them to enjoy peace dividend. Your Excellency, we the Southern Sudanese citizens in Calgary are kindly requesting the government of southern Sudan, under your leadership to exhaust all necessary mechanisms with consideration of the following resolutions:

First and foremost, prolonging this internal conflict, would caused insecurity and instability which will hinder the preparation of the imminent referendum in 2011 whereby people of South Sudan would determine their future either to retain unity of Sudan or opt for South Sudan separate government as one of the cornerstones of liberation struggle.

Secondly, turning guns against citizens is completely irrelevant because we will lose innocent lives of our people at this juncture and it will undermine ultimate roles of the SPLA army while their main function is to defend South Sudan and to maintain the CPA.

Thirdly, our partner is very seriously advocating false allegation to international community that we people of south Sudan are incapable of running our own affairs and warns the international community to refrain from supporting secession of South Sudan. We the SPLM Calgary and other Sudanese elders want the SPLM leadership and the government of southern Sudan to prove them wrong this time and alert the people in the world that we the Southerners are more than capable of governing ourselves by maintaining lasting peace in South Sudan.http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/3570/Default.aspx

And some details on what is going on in Jongley view through disarment angle:
Jonglei 2010: Another round of disarmament

What is sad in the Jongley story is that general Athor has won the elections in only 1 couny on 11. It gives you an idea of his support.
But unlike SPLA says, some say he may have up to a thousand soldiers with him. (I know the figures battle… anyways, he probably has more than 100 and pretty much less than a 1000).

What is interresting in this story, is that Athor was proposed position in Juba, in the new government and he refused. The assumption that peace has a price (so precious to UK) here is proven to be fault again. War has a price which is even more attractive than any one put on peace.
Why? Simply because war opens more opportunities than peace to a larger number. Now the main question is who benefits from the crime?
GoSS? Certainly not.
Khartoum? Most probably but it is not that obvious. My point here is: Khartoum is actually bringing on his knees JEM in Dafur and will be soon free to prepare war with South (if this happens after 2011 referendum). Gen Athor ran elections as an independent. He basically lost all his supports inside SPLM. He was more or less proposed to reintegrate SPLM through a position in the government and refused.

This could be a manoeuvre to destabilise GoSS but internal affairs inside SPLM could be the problem. And let us not forget the complex problem of Nile water. A strong south Sudan is a problem for Egypt and North Sudan on that matter but also it is an issue for the other stake holders of that negotiation. Nice guys as Uganda president are involved in this. It would not be the first time hat he plays against South Sudan.
Too many have motives to destabilise South to look only to North.

M-A Lagrange
05-18-2010, 07:58 AM
Kiir casts doubts on negotiations with renegade general
May 16, 2010 (JUBA) – Salva Kiir Mayardit, South Sudan President-elect, has casted doubt on GOSS willingness to negotiate with George Athor Deng, the defeated Jonglei State gubernatorial candidate in April elections.
Many voices in southern Sudan called on the regional government to seek peaceful means to end the rebellion of General Athor in order to preserve peace and security in the semi-autonomous region which will hold a referendum on self determination next January.
The UN Mission in Sudan proposed to broker a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Athor welcomed the move but Southern Sudan government pledged to make further consultations and review the situation before to give its final decision to the UN body.
During the May 16th celebration here in Juba, Salva Kiir vowed that civilians’ safety and transformation of SPLA are the SPLM focus in the next term office besides ensuring successful conduct of January referendum.

South Sudan ruling party accuses NCP of backing Athor uprising At a media briefing held at the party’s Southern Sector Secretariat on Saturday, Mr. Amum said his party had secured credible information that the National Congress Party (NCP) was fully backing Gen. Athor and forces loyal to him.
Asked to substantiate further on the NCP’s alleged involvement, the SPLM Secretary General said the party’s [SPLM] intelligence report strongly link the renegade General’s rebellion to the Khartoum regime’s continuous trends of providing logistical and financial support to “enemies” of Southern Sudan.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35098

As far as I know, negociations were rejected by Salva Kiir and SPLA troops are surounding the 500 to 800 troops of Gen Athor.
This situation questions the doctrine of negociation with peace spoilers in stabilisation. Is it always worse to negociate with peace spoilers? Sometimes the answer is no, unfortunatelly.
Somehow, negociating with a general who clearly lost election would undermine GoSS legitimacy and democratic process initiated in South Sudan. Not that I am in favor of use of force to settle any problems similar to this one but...
But when the democratic defeat is clear, then negociations has to be very limited. Buying peace spoilers would work if they have some popular back up as you would fuel insurgency. But when the guys have no popular support why should democraties negociate?
Democratic process are inclusive but in order to build strong democracy, it should be also archknowledge that they do have the right to impose people decisions to those who reject people choice by using force. :o

Concerning the NCP links... I am doubtful by I am very much not well placed to judge as I miss too many info.

M-A Lagrange
05-21-2010, 06:24 AM
U.S. kicks off agricultural program in South Sudan
May 17, 2010 (JUBA) – The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) inaugurated a $55 million program in the semi-autonomous region of South Sudan aimed at helping farmers there to develop their agricultural potential.
Last month, the World Food Program (WFP) warned that South Sudan is facing a major food crisis that could lead to a “free fall” impacting 4.3 million people living off assistance.
Furthermore, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) has announced last Friday the lifting of taxes on food products in response to the looming hunger in the region.
USAID said that a five-year initiative, called the Food, Agribusiness, and Rural Markets (FARM) program, will initially focus on select counties in southern Sudan’s ‘green belt zone,’ which spans Western, Central, and Eastern Equatoria states, and where conflict destroyed much of the local capacity for agricultural production during Sudan’s civil war.
The project is to focus on commodities such as ground nuts, sorghum, rice, cassava, maize, sesame, tomatoes, cabbage, onion and okra. The areas covered in this program are comprised of Central Equatoria Counties: Morobo, Kajo Keji, Yei; Eastern Equatoria Counties: Magwi, Ikotos, Budi; Western Equatoria Counties: Maridi, Mundri, Tambura.
USAID director said that his agency will increase its presence in South Sudan in what appears to be a subtle preparation for the high probability of secession following the 2011 self-determination referendum in the region.
“Agriculture is the backbone of the economic development in southern Sudan, employing the majority of the population of more than 8 million, 80 percent of whom live in rural areas,” according to a USAID statement.
South Sudan is overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenue but some reports accused GoSS of mismanaging the money leading to persistence of food crisis and insecurity.
A GoSS official vowed to spend prudently in order to develop agriculture.
“There is going to be rationalization in all aspects of expenditure to create funds for the development of our agriculture,” the SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum said.

Poor roads infrastructure in E. Equatoria hamper development
Mr. Otim said Magwi could be the food basket of Eastern Equatoria, Southern Sudan and Sudan at large but it lacks roads linking the area to towns like the state capital Torit or to the Southern Sudan capital Juba to help the farmers transport their products to market their agricultural inputs.
The MP added that better roads would bridge the gap between farmers and consumers and open up means to rapidly boost the development of the state.
Otim calls upon the state government to do more to help the county inhabitants to let them exploit its God given resources as a means to fight poverty in the state.
Eastern Equatoria is under hunger threats since last year and Magwi County produces enough food to feed the state, but farmers lack good to transport their produce to the market due to the deplorable condition of the roads’ network in the region since the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement or CPA in the country.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35133

Let’s have a look on the Usefull country development orientation in stabilization…
Yes, South Sudan is not as hot as other theather and it might not look obvious for those who do not know it enough to understand why I am trying to analyse this approach though South Sudan. But anyways, such policy approach are not meant to be a one shot but a global approach for donor agencies as USAID.

What to say on the usefull country part development approach put in place by USA?
1) It looks both rational and logical: focussing on areas which have an economical potential to build population confidence in a government.
2) The limits are not in that particular approach but lay in the partners. And that’s why I joined the second article.
For those who noticed, in Eastern Equatoria, the USAID farming projects targets 3 counties: Budi, Ikotos and Magwi. It also targets some counties in Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria. So why am I harrasing the poor Magwi deputy?
Because since 2005, Magwi county is being overflowded with aid. And because it is the door to Uganda who is also facing a strong food gape, especially in its northen regions. So, developing roads in Magwi will not allow GoSS to have a more rational management of its food security but will allow South Sudan to export food to Uganda.
Then comes the first question to whom is that farming project benefiting? Is it benefitting to South Sudan or is it benefitting to its close neighbour who is actually engaged in tracking LRA all over Central and Western Equatoria (up to Darfur in fact)?
As a strabilization strategy how does that work? I really do wonder. And this is my point: how do donors pick up and choose areas to qualify them as useful versus non useful?
Developping roads to allow farmers to sell their products inside South Sudan is likely to not work. This because South sudanese simply do not have the financial capacity to purchase that food. So you will tend to develop export to develop transport companies and respond to a need (Uganda food gape) in a solvable area (Uganda).
Yes but does that contribute to stabilise South Sudan? The question is far from being rethorical as the roots of many of the ethnical/tribal conflicts lay in food insecurity. So would that not be whiser to develop internal road transport capacity from producers area to food insecure areas inside the country whith UN agencies such as WFP purchasing the production to then redistribute it in unstable areas.
But in fact this is not what leads donors or agencies choice. In fact, the choice is led by partners practices. Yes, indeed, NGO and contractors do play a huge role in this. That, just because to implement a project, you do need to identify capable partners. And such partners are driven by a purely economical rational: benefit/cost(effort). It is much easier to find partners to implement a project in a easy access area rather in a logistically unaccessible area whith some level of insecurity.
Then once again, it is not the concerned country which is choosing what are its useful part but an external body, most of the time not even concerned by the political end of such projects.
Finally you end up with a great development project that is absolutely not useful in terms of stabilization and which is implemented in the already more or less stable areas. The ink spot effect is largely concurenced by the negative effect of non distribution of peace benefits in the unstable areas. To be successful, such approach has to be capable to generate a development ratio which is extremely high to be able to overpass the “instability ratio” of the non targetted areas.
I’am not saying it is worse trying. I am just saying that, except in areas where you have to be dum to be willing to stay viewing the death potential for you and your staff, such approach has an obligation to blow the roof to be successful and effectively participate to stabilize a country rather than marginalising areas. In the case of South sudan, the cradle of all insurgencies has been Jongley. It is actually the state were political unity of SPLM is cracking. So how is that this state is not integrated into the huge farming USAID project? (Taking out the technical problematic of crop production versus cattle breeding. Technical solution can be found to technical problematic).
Well here are some ints of an answer for South Sudan: Jongley state is not a bankable state as it has no links with export areas capable to purchase this food production. We are back here to the first question: to whom is such approach really benefiting? To the unstable country we are trying to stabilize or to its neighbors?

Talking about jonglei:

Jonglei governor dismisses allegations of probable attack on Bor
Jonglei Gov. Kuol Manyang Juuk has dismissed as "spread allegations" that defeated gubernatorial candidate George Athor Deng may attack the State capital, Bor.
Mr. Manyang observed that Athor threats to attack Bor do not amount to causing panic among the town residents "because I can sit in my house and speak in my house that I will attack such a place and (media) broadcast".
The governor calls for what he calls as “the unity of our people to maintain peace and prepare for referendum on self-determination due next January. On job creation, Kuol says “unemployment is insecurity. When we make peace, we make (our state) attractive for (foreign) investors.”
Southern Sudan minister of information rapped Miraya FM for airing an interview with George Athor, a former SPLA who rebelled after losing in gubernatorial elections in Jonglei last month.
During the interview, the renegade general threatened to attack Jonglei capital Jonglei.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35136

Ironic, isn’t it?

M-A Lagrange
05-24-2010, 03:34 PM
South Sudan army ceases cordoning ex-SPLA General turned rebel
May 22, 2010 (TURALEI) — Officers from the southern ruling army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have said they have stopped deploying their forces to barricade former SPLA deputy chief of General staff, Lieutenant General George Athor, from moving out of his base.
Our forces previously deployed around areas suspected of hosting General Athor have received military instructions from the SPLA general headquarters never to conduct offensive reconnaissance, said an army officer who requested to remain anonymous.
"These instructions are helpful because they have reduced fear and tension in the area and situation is now relatively calm. Athor is even moving freely in the area, the senior SPLA officer said. "His movement is not being restricted. I understand he was on Wednesday in Baliet County and there was no problem because he did not attack any military base on his way to Baliet," the military source stressed.
According to the source, the recent instructions from the SPLA General headquarters in Juba advise the army to only monitor his movements and react vigorously in self defense in case he attacks any military base. Recent orders from the headquarters instruct the army to only fight back in self defense in case he launches any offensive against any military base in the area, he said.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35167

South sudan government is actually receiving advisory support from US based companies such as Dyng corp in matter of security. The monitor and vigorous self defense approach adopted by the SPLA reminds somehow the strategy develped in Afghanistan: not waste manpower is useless fighting and concentrate on usefull South Sudan (and the border with North also).
If I come with that parallele, it is in fact because of the new USAID FARM project launched severa days ago. It will be interresting if population centric COIN is an exportabe product.
Wait and see.

M-A Lagrange
05-28-2010, 07:05 AM
Three people killed in an attack in Pibor
May 27, 2010 (BOR) – Three people are dead and at least five are injured following a last week attack in Lokurnyang in Jonglei’s Pibor County, security sources said.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune from Bor, the capital of Jonglei, on Tuesday, a security official confirmed that armed men loyal to David Yauyay, the defeated legislative candidate of the United Democratic Front (UDF) carried out the attack on May 23.
The security official discussed intelligence reports on the condition of anonymity.
Other sources have stated that several other assaults blamed on followers of Mr. Yauyau have resulted in unconfirmed casualties and tensions remain high.
James Buret, a UDF member who contested and lost in the national elections in April, told the Sudan Tribune by phone from Pibor that Mr. Yauyau reactions to the electoral are unilateral.
"After the election results, everyone left for their area and whatever happens after that is not UDF’s decision," Mr. James said about Yauyau’s military complaints on alleged electoral fraud.
A source in Pibor says the number of youth supporting Yauyau is estimated at 10 but other reports put the marauding groups higher.
After attacking Lokurnyang, the group headed towards Gadiang , located between Twic East, Duk, Uror and Pibor Counties, another source claims. It appears that Mr. Yauyau is seeking to merge his men with General George Athor Deng of the SPLA who is also accused of confronting the regional army in the last few weeks.
Mr. Athor, a former deputy chief of staff in the Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), was a main rival to Jonglei’s governer, Kuol Manyang , in April’s polls but lost with a wide margin to the incumbent leader from the SPLM that rules the semi-autonomous region. Athor is on the run after being accused of attacking an army base in Dolieb Hills, Upper Nile State on April 30.
Tension is mounting in Jonglei State following the elections as defeated politicians resort to military means to address their post-election frustrations.
Equally important, the Bor – Juba road has registered increasing raids. Two people were killed last Saturday when gunmen fired at a passenger’s car. The May 22 ambush between Mongala and Geimeza comes a week after similar attack left four people dead. As a result, land transport is loose and a number of business trucks are stranded in Juba.
Jonglei State was marred with inter-tribal cattle rustling in 2009 as well as attacks on Bor—Juba road that later fueled clashes between Mundari-Bor pastoralists leaving hundreds dead in both cases. The Government of Southern Sudan vowed at the time to halt similar future incidents.
With seven months left until the referendum on self-determination in the underdeveloped south Sudan, the journey to January 2011, at the moment, is shaky.

The question here is: does nonkinetic approach fuel insurgencies?
A very actual debate in deed. Especially as it seems that Mr Yauyau has more than 10 armed supporters and is linking with General Athor.
If a national force has the capacity to crush an emerging insurgency why should they not do it? We do come back to the importance of populace as clausewitzian center. The only reason for a national force to not crush an emerging insurgency being the risk of loosing populace support and for the government its legitimacy.
The real question behind being: can a COIN afford electoral fraud?
Personnally, the answer would be no. Not because it is against my principles (it is) but because it does have much larger counter productive effects than having to deal with authorities actually representative and representing population. Also, it is against Thompson principles... But I leave this for the scholars. ;)

M-A Lagrange
05-30-2010, 01:06 PM
SPLA clashes with a renegade Colonel in Unity state
May 29, 2010 (JUBA) – A renegade Colonel in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has clashed with the Southern Sudan army in a county called Abiem-Nhom in Unity state.
Colonel Gatluak Gai of SPLA, who was then transferred to Prisons Brigade, is reported to have been angered by the alleged elections rigging by the incumbent governor, Taban Deng Gai, in Unity state.
His declaration of violence on Friday is the second most serious incident following that of former army Deputy Chief of Staff, General George Athor Deng of Pigi county and David Yauyau of Pibor, both from Jonglei state. All the discontented voiced their rebellion on the “rigging” of the elections, though some officials in both the government and the SPLA had associated them directly with Khartoum or blame the whole issue on Khartoum.
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum Okiech had earlier said that there were evidences showing that Gen. George Athor had direct link with the Khartoum government.
Although the SPLA spokesman, Major General Kuol Deim Kuol, was not heard commenting about linking Athor’s rebellion to Khartoum, Kuol has however told Miraya FM radio that the recent attack by Colonel Gatluak Gai was carried out by a group of militias sent from Khartoum.
However, another SPLA military source close to Unity state who asked to remain anonymous however explained that Colonel Gatluak is a well known SPLA officer and had been an SPLA officer like Gen. George Athor and was not sent from Khartoum as alleged.
He said Gatluak’s movement with some of his loyalists within Unity state has been monitored by the SPLA for the last three weeks. On casualties, the source added there could be higher figure than officially reported.
"The attackers did not defeat our SPLA forces but only one soldier got injured at his head after heavy gunfire exchange between our army and militias," Kuol said.
Kuol accuse the National Congress Party (NCP) of having stood behind to send militias to disturb in Unity state.
The SPLA spokesman affirmed that “at 4:45, our SPLA base at Warpiny of Abiemnhom county was attack by the forces of militias under Colonel militias Gatluak Gai, the aim is to indentify our heavy weapon position – this militias colonel with his forces was sent by Khartoum government with aim to disturb security in Unity state – one soldier at our side was wounded in his head and we don’t have more detail from our attackers side,” continued the SPLA spokesman.
Kuol noted that "We did not capture one of them in our yesterday clashes, but the motive of aggressive militias’ daily attack in Unity state is to promote political objective of the NCP in Southern Sudan - they are supporting NCP agenda and we the SPLA will just sustain our position to protect our civilians in all territory of South Sudan."
Government of Southern Sudan is currently faced with a number of rebellions following the declaration of elections results. Earlier, the former senior advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit, Lual Ding Wol, was reported to have expressed his discontent with the government in Juba, saying he would not accept to be part of the next government.
Lual Ding comes from Northern Bahr el Ghazal and was supporter of Gen. Dau Aturtong who went to Khartoum after losing the gubernatorial elections as another independent candidate, prompting fears that something unpleasant could be brewing in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state.
However, Kuol in his recent statement refused to make comment on General George Athor violence against SPLA forces in Jonglei state.

And the fire spread all over the place.
But is the connection with NCP a reality or just something built to explain the situation and blame North?
In such situation, narrative is almost as important as reallity. Experience in other states shows that unfortunately, SPLM did not even leave room for South Sudanese alternance and opposition…

M-A Lagrange
06-02-2010, 04:13 PM
First the insurgency gets organized:

Renegades coordinate attacks on South Sudan army
Three top officers who quit south Sudan’s army over alleged fraud in national elections are coordinating attacks in the oil-producing region, a renegade general said on Monday, but the army played down the threat.
“Southerners are not happy with what happened during the elections,” said George Athor, a senior general who complained of fraud after losing in the April elections and went on the run on April 30.
“I have many people who joined me, one of them is Colonel Galwak Gai and the other is David Yauyau, and we have others in other areas,” he added.
Yauyau, who told Reuters he was coordinating operations with Athor, carried out an attack in Jonglei state a week ago, forcing the United Nations to evacuate 10 staff. The south Sudan army (SPLA) said Gai attacked it in oil-rich Unity state on May 28.
“Militia commander Galwak Gai came and attacked our position,” said SPLA Spokesman Kuol Diem Kuol, adding that only one soldier was wounded but they had found two attackers’ bodies and took four prisoners.

Then SPLM is trying to cope, they cannot fight on two fronts at the same time: inside and with North

Juba forces says Sudan’s unity requires new basisMay 31, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Juba alliance political forces agreed today that Sudan’s unity could only be maintained if the country is reshaped on new basis.
The opposition leaders and the SPLM further said the result of the referenda should be respected and implemented.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35246

The response from insurgents:

Athor says SPLM “ruling clique” can rig referendum against people’s choice
"The clique in Juba is now desperately trying to mislead public opinion that the long-awaited referendum in Southern Sudan is tied with their continuation in power. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, their very presence in power jeopardizes the credibility of the referendum itself. An illegitimate government that rigged the democratic right of the people cannot be trusted to lead the Southern Sudanese into a democratic exercise to determine their destiny," reads the statement.
"Since the SPLM ruling clique in Juba rigged the elections with impunity, they can in the same way also rig the referendum. The South cannot afford to have a Self-determination result that is in dispute. That will be a recipe for instability rather than the peaceful outcome the CPA was meant to realize," the statement continued.

Basically, everybody agrees on one thing: it’s a mess in South Sudan nowadays.
To get an idea of what is the future under SPLM ruling, I recommand to read the excellent: Governance, violence and the struggle for economic regulation in South Sudan: the case of Budi County(Eastern Equatoria) from Anne Walraet (sorry, I do not have the link but it's available on the net).
Truthfully mind blowing...:(

M-A Lagrange
06-04-2010, 10:28 AM
The question seems to be rhetorical in a country divided in 2 and actually in the middle of a peace process between the 2 parts.
But in fact, new info are putting this back in relevancy.

The appearances:

South Sudan army kills eight rebels in Unity State, pledges to crash them
June 3, 2010, (TURALEI) – The Southern Sudan army (SPLA) clashed with a renegade Colonel in Unity State killing eight of his men and pledged to crash his rebellion.
Colonel Galuak Gai is one of three SPLA officers who rebelled last April contesting the results of April elections. They accused the southern Sudan ruling party of rigging the elections. The three also said coordinating their fight against Juba government.
"Our forces have on Tuesday clashed with forces loyal to former southern police colonel, Galuak Gai, south west of Mayom County, killing eight of his men and are still following him with instructions to capture him dead or alive," SPLA spokesperson, General Kuol Deim Kuol, told Sudan Tribune, on Thursday.
Kuol disputed allegations that colonel Gai is coordinating with the former General, George Athor, who turned rebel after losing in April polls.
"All militia leaders report directly to national intelligence services in Khartoum," he said.
The spokesperson further confirmed arrest of the two SPLA officers on June 1 allegedly suspected of trying to recruit for David Yauyau of Jonglei, one of the militia leaders’ allied with Gen. Athor.
"They are suspected of trying to recruit people to go and join Yauyau," he said. They may be released if the investigation shows nothing."http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35280

Leaders from Murle community arrested in Juba
June 2, 2010 (JUBA) – A number of political and military leaders from the Murle community of Pibor County in Jonglei state have been arrested in the South Sudan’s capital, Juba. Mary Boyoi also explained that her uncle and others were denied to cast their ballot papers during the April elections because their names were already used by unknown individuals who used them to cast their votes.

“I know they all went to Pibor to vote. The day they were going to vote they found that their names had already been used to cast the ballot. So they left Pibor and returned to Juba. They did not involve themselves in any "rebellion".

Pibor County has recently witnessed a military standoff between the forces of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and supporters of David Yauyau, a former independent candidate who was angered by the alleged rigging of elections results and reportedly coordinated the move with the renegade former SPLA Deputy Chief of General Staff, George Athor Deng.

Here are the small pitty facts which change everything:
From Global Witness:
Middle East Oil companies are conducting oil exploration in North Dafur

And from Romandi news, unfortunatelly in French:
Sudan : North and South may increase their oil production


And the "surprising/unexpected" news :

Peace partners agree to "persuade" South Sudanese to vote for unity
"In accordance [with] the aforementioned commitments, the NCP and SPLM have agreed on the following general directives for the programme of the next government…implementation of the remaining provisions of the CPA in spirit of partnership and responsibility with the aim of contributing to persuade the people of Southern Sudan for voluntary unity," the agreement reads in part.
The two parties also agreed to improve institutional arrangements and carry out development in the South for the next seven months in addition to working to implement a media campaign with the aim to popularize the CPA throughout the country.
The agreement came as a surprise to many political analysts and observers who have criticized it as the work of the NCP to divide the SPLM leadership on the issues to do with self-determination and its two options of unity and secession.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35281

As I was posting previously, latest research in the field show that North South war in Sudan is all about economical resources domination, from both sides. May be not what Garang fought for but it is what reality shows.
It is also part of the big game. As Bill C commented on the article Africa’s irregular security threat, Africa came back as one of the most strategic place in the world nowadays as everybody is trying to get out of the Middle East energy dependency. And, by the way, Sudan is the number 1 oil source for China.
So, unlike the article from Sudan Tribune states, backing up unity is not so much a surprise for analyst. It is even the only solution. The one that many who followed this war for long did not really want to see as they putted too many efforts in crushing North.
In fact, what tends to be is a common interest for both parties to enjoy oil incomes. China is basically the main investor in oil field and Sudan the main oil supplier from China with 60 000 b/day on a 120 000 b/day imports. The oil refineries and pipeline are located in North and linking with Port Sudan. There are projects of pipe line between South and Kenya, just like the construction of Lamu port in Kenya. But this are long term planning and, here, we are talking about immediate enjoyment of oil revenues. Let’s be practical on that one.
But also, this really highlights one of the very deep root trigger of insurgency process both on birth and ending. If the 60 and 70 “insurgencies” were in fact liberation wars from oppressed groups against external powers (most of the time). The 21 century “insurgencies” and even the late 20 century onces, at least in Africa, are definitively economically protracted. And some how, this is may be why the old recipe of COIN political settlement is not working.
The 60 insurgencies were based on the raise of individual rights empowerment. Individuals had rights and as such they had the right to rebel and build new nations out of any colonial power.
The 2000 insurgencies are struggles to control state administrations to access not individual rights but individual enrichment. People’s interest and rights are no more the leading engine of those movements. Somehow, it is the counter balance reaction to those “60 insurgencies” which were revolutionary and counter revolutionary wars at that time from states trying to re ensure their hand on citizens. Like South Sudan rebellion started to defend southerners right to have a recognized different culture and equality of rights and is ending now in a pity struggle to share oil revenues between 2 barely democratic political parties.

06-06-2010, 03:58 PM
... Like South Sudan rebellion started to defend southerners right to have a recognized different culture and equality of rights and is ending now in a pity struggle to share oil revenues between 2 barely democratic political parties.

Yes this is a sad development. But had the 'world' prevented the ongoing genocide in South Sudan and separated the North and South into two states with a clear border the oil issue would have been less of a problem.

Sadly it proves yet again the fatal flaws in the UN. And now China has been drawn in due to its oil hunger.

400,000 dead and 2,500,000 displaced should make everyone hang their heads in shame... especially when we all said it would not be allowed to happen again.

M-A Lagrange
06-07-2010, 06:18 PM
Hey JMA,

I believe you are talking about the "genocide" in Darfur and not in South Sudan.
I do not want to play the devil advocate here, but Bashir has been found suspect only of war crimes and war against humanity. The difference is light, thine and for some even just rhetorical but has its importance.
Saying this, what I found sad into Sudan and Darfur adventure is that Africa has not been capable to make its proof she is capable of taking care of herself in a decent way. I like too much this continent for not being ashamed to see how African politicians have been playing around to not send troops for UNAMID.
I have the tendency to support AU understanding of the situation: a division of Sudan would do more harm than good. And for exactly the same reason that AU president, Mr PING: if Sudan partition all countries will blow up and Africa will be a mosaic of small nonviable countries ran by crazy ex war lords…
Having said so, I support Uganda and South Africa courageous position on Bashir and the ICT. Africa must end the "love" story with crimes against human rights because African peaders are different. :mad:

06-08-2010, 07:14 PM
Having said so, I support Uganda and South Africa courageous position on Bashir and the ICT. Africa must end the "love" story with crimes against human rights because African peaders are different. :mad:

Just when you thought there was a glimmer of hope coming out of Africa your hopes get dashed. Africa has a way of doing that.

Uganda invites al-Bashir to summit (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2010/06/201068123447183209.html)

"Uganda has backtracked on a decision to bar the Sudanese president from the African Union (AU) summit in Kampala next month, saying Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted for war crimes, has actually been invited."


A confusing message from South Africa:

South Africa may arrest Bashir if attends World Cup

"South Africa has invited Sudan's Omar al-Bashir to the continent's first World Cup along with the rest of Africa's leadership, but will arrest him if he takes up the invitation, President Jacob Zuma said."

...you go figure!

M-A Lagrange
06-09-2010, 02:26 PM
From JMA:

Just when you thought there was a glimmer of hope coming out of Africa your hopes get dashed. Africa has a way of doing that.

Well, Africa teaches you how to be patient... Cause after too much rain comes too much sun :rolleyes:

Southern Army clears post election rebellion in Unity state
The Sudan people’s Liberation Army (The SPLA) has on Tuesday said it militarily cleared remnants of the forces allegedly loyal to former southern police officer who turned rebel after April elections, Colonel Gatluak Gai in the southern state of unity.
Colonel Gai whose forces have been on a run following an increase in military engagements recently, by southern army against his men, clashed again with SPLA forces, North West of Mayom County, unity state, on Monday 7, killing 21 members of his loyalists and captured 32 others.
General Kuol Deim Kuol, SPLA spokesperson in Juba said his forces have completely cleared post election rebellion in southern state of Unity and pledged readiness to defend local population in the area against any aggression by armed groups inside southern territory.
"Our forces have cleared remnants of colonel Gai. They do no longer exist in southern territory. Gai escaped with few of his loyalists and is currently outside SPLA controlled territories," General Kuol said adding his forces remain ready for any military engagement should he return as a rebellion army.
"He is out of the SPLA controlled areas. He is said to have run northward of Mayom County to no man land. That area is a complete bush under Joint integrated units. It is not SPLA territory," he said.
William Twil, an ex- Unity state advisor who is likely to maintain the same advisory position, in the upcoming government, confirmed the clash and seconded military option, saying it is a resort of attempts to bringing peaceful settlement to post elections grievances.
"Nobody had wanted a military option but situation created by individuals has brought it. What is the reason of killing your own people while there are best ways to settle differences," he asked.
Major Peter Both, SPLA logistics officer, in Unity state capital of Bentiu equally confirmed clash between southern army and forces loyal to renegade police officer.
"They have clashed again yesterday and our forces have cleared them off," he said.
"They were badly defeated; they also captured additional members from them this time and now out of SPLA controlled areas," he said adding that the southern army will not tolerate groups with intention to creating instability.
The SPLA will not tolerate groups operating outside legal system using arms to destabilize security of our people. They will be militarily confronted to show them where they belong as our forces have shown them today, Major Peter confidently said.
Three former leading members of the southern Sudan army rebelled after April elections accusing GOSS authorities of rigging their vote.
General george Athor Deng who is in Jonglei, General Gatluak Gai of SPLA, in Unity state, and David Yauyau of Pibor, said last week they are coordinating their activities in the areas.
General Kuol said SPLA forces outside Malakal town; have on Sunday 06, clashed with armed groups accused to have been behind the killing of Shilluk Paramount chief, Peter Oyath, in Panyikang County, Upper Nile State, in May 22, 2010.
"Our forces clashed with SPLM-DC affiliated armed group not far away from Malakal international airport. They fought North West of the airport, exactly west of river Nile.
They have killed seven of their members and have captured alive three of their members with arms, General Kuol said. "These people have been the cause of recent insecurity in the town and beyond," he adds.

06-09-2010, 08:34 PM
"The SPLA will not tolerate groups operating outside legal system using arms to destabilize security of our people. They will be militarily confronted to show them where they belong as our forces have shown them today, Major Peter confidently said."

Always fascinated when a one time 'liberation army' starts preaching about the rule of law.

M-A Lagrange
06-10-2010, 04:17 PM
The best way to end an insurgency:

South Sudan ruling party losses Jonglei’s election rerun
Provisional results from the High Election Committee of Jonglei State projected the victory of Kuol Bol Ayom , an Independent candidate over Daniel Deng Kut, an SPLM candidate for the Athoc North State seat.
Kuol Bol scored 9448 votes to Deng Kut’s 3387 votes. Two other candidates, Buol Lual ,an independent and Mayen Kur , an NCP, withdrew from the race but still gathered below 50 votes combined since their names were on ballot papers.
The final results will be announced at the National Elections Commission (NEC) in Khartoum.
Kuol Bol victory adds a second tally to independent lawmakers in the SPLM-controlled assembly in Jonglei State.

Jonglei State is one of the most insecure states in South Sudan. But it is also one of the less strategical: it is not long the North/South border and not long the Kenya and Uganda border. So redoing the elections will not affect the SPLA logistical roads or pre deployment long the North/South border.
A win/win exercise if we can call it that way. It also goes directly into the line of the Malaysian COIN: you give to the people what they want and then cut the grass under insurgents feets.

JMA, just for you ;):

Sudan tells South Africa to stop ’cheap propaganda’
"I don’t think it’s correct to say, ’If the president of Sudan comes to South Africa, we will arrest him.’ It looks like cheap propaganda" Al-Sharif was quoted as saying by Pretoria News.
"The president will not come to South Africa without an invitation. He is not a tourist. He is a president" he added.


Apparently, it is hard to live in the shoes of a chief...

06-11-2010, 06:07 AM
The best way to end an insurgency:


Jonglei State is one of the most insecure states in South Sudan. But it is also one of the less strategical: it is not long the North/South border and not long the Kenya and Uganda border. So redoing the elections will not affect the SPLA logistical roads or pre deployment long the North/South border.
A win/win exercise if we can call it that way. It also goes directly into the line of the Malaysian COIN: you give to the people what they want and then cut the grass under insurgents feets.

If you just make the concessions the insurgents demand ("give the people what they want") then they win, yes?

06-11-2010, 06:11 AM
JMA, just for you ;):


Apparently, it is hard to live in the shoes of a chief...

The newspaper headline read:

Sudan tells South Africa to stop ’cheap propaganda’

South Africa should have been more upfront and direct with this matter (as should Uganda).

Something like:

"All heads of state of African countries have been invited to attend the opening ceremony of the 2010 World Cup as a blanket diplomatic courtesy.

In addition South Africa wishes to confirm that as a signatory to the ICC remains bound to exercise and enforce any summonses and/or arrest warrants issued by that organisation. There can be no exceptions to this."

M-A Lagrange
06-14-2010, 04:54 PM
Two governors of Sudan borders states call to strengthen ancestral ties
"There can never be development if any given area remains under security threats all the time. There can be never free movement of the local people between the two areas if security remains a major concern. There can never be regular business transaction between the two areas if there are bandits on commercial lines stopping and looting people and of course there can never be better relations if there are illegal armed groups on each border side," added Governor Anei, emphasizing that security is a major priority to his administration.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35367

Cattle raids affect relations between Unity and Lakes states - official
June 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Commissioner of Rumbek’s North County of Lakes State, Isaac Mayek Noah, said that his county’s relationship with the neighboring state of Unity is deteriorating due to frequent cattle raids.
In the last three months, at least 19 people were killed and 26 others were seriously wounded by Unity State cattle looters.
Commissioner Noah told Sudan Tribune that over six thousand cows were looted in a 3 months period by cattle raiders from Unity State and not a single one was returned to its owners in Maper, Rumbek North by Unity state authorities.
He also added that he conducted voluntary mediation between Unity state and his county, but the Government of Unity State failed to respond positively on returning looted cows.
Commissioner Noah noted that since his appointment through a GOSS presidential decree on 7/12/2009 ,he has achieved disarmament in Rumbek North County and all arms collected from armed civilians were handed to SPLA barracks.
"I collected AK47s guns making the total 460," said Commissioner Noah.
Noah accused Unity state of not being disarmed by the SPLA and his county is disarmed leaving the civilian without protection.
However, Noah appreciates his county’s relation with Warrap state saying that since we signed a peace document between Rumbek North (Maper) County and Tonj East County, there is no any report of cattle raids reported between Tonji East county of Warrap state and Rumbek North (Maper) county of Lakes state .
"We are in a peaceful atmosphere with Warrap state and our main threat is Unity state cattle raiders." added Commissioner Noah.
Tonj East County of Warrap state and Rumbek North (Maper) County of Lakes state signed a cattle raiders peace document on March 23, 2010 in Wunlit under the mediation of PACT- Sudan organization.
Noah confirmed that over 619 were killed in last month.

Building unity in South Sudan it self is not for tomorrow…
The main problem is that each states acts as it was an independent country with local tribes ruled only by custom...
The other problematic is:
After 25 years of war (for the second civil war) and a youth with no education and only skills an AK, encourage by a social pressure (from elders and women) to prove they are a man by killing some people and ruling authorities who control the illegal trade... What do we do?:D

06-14-2010, 06:04 PM

from JMA
If you just make the concessions the insurgents demand ("give the people what they want") then they win, yes?

is true - IFF the end state desired by the insurgents is explicitly incorporated in their demands. In short, the insurgent leadership, in that situation, does not manipulate the slogans, but explicitly lays out its desired end state.

However, let us take our Com brethren of the two major insurgencies of my youth - China and Vietnam. The end goals (ideology) for Mao and Ho-Giap never varied - a Communist government in each country. On the other hand, they used a variety of slogans which did not reflect that Communist end state. E.g., land reform (redistribution of farms), anti-imperialism (end foreign control over trade, etc.), and provide equality in class opportunities (put the rural peasants on a equal opportunity footing with urban bourgeoisie).

Thus, non-Coms could join in a United Front whose slogans were not explicitly Communistic. So also, the incumbant governments in both China and Vietman could have satisfied some of the slogans (e.g., land reform, nationalism, equal opportunity) without giving the insurgent leadership (Coms) what they really wanted. In neither case, was the incumbant government willing to make those concessions.



M-A Lagrange
06-14-2010, 07:49 PM
is true - IFF the end state desired by the insurgents is explicitly incorporated in their demands. In short, the insurgent leadership, in that situation, does not manipulate the slogans, but explicitly lays out its desired end state.

However, let us take our Com brethren of the two major insurgencies of my youth - China and Vietnam. The end goals (ideology) for Mao and Ho-Giap never varied - a Communist government in each country. On the other hand, they used a variety of slogans which did not reflect that Communist end state. E.g., land reform (redistribution of farms), anti-imperialism (end foreign control over trade, etc.), and provide equality in class opportunities (put the rural peasants on a equal opportunity footing with urban bourgeoisie).

Thus, non-Coms could join in a United Front whose slogans were not explicitly Communistic. So also, the incumbant governments in both China and Vietman could have satisfied some of the slogans (e.g., land reform, nationalism, equal opportunity) without giving the insurgent leadership (Coms) what they really wanted. In neither case, was the incumbant government willing to make those concessions.



Mikes assertion is quite true. The narrative is as important for insurgents than for the loyalists. In the case of South Sudan, insurgents are absolutely not sophisticated. They claim power on the base of electoral frauds which were most of the time obvious or they are just not happy to not have been elected. So either you buy them or you crush them.

In the case of Malaysia, the promise of independence came very early so it really did cut the grass under the feet of insurgents because they did not have the capacity to elaborate their discourse.
In the case of Algeria, it was almost the same. The promise to revise the status of the indigenes came too late.
In Irak, the delay in being in position to provide efficient civil peace and recover basic services as electricity played an important role.
For A-Stan, I do not know.
But timing is one key of preventing the situation to go bad and unmanageable. COIN comes as the response but should rather come as a preventive measure. But if you do so, then you probably have to focus most of your manpower to the hold phase. It is probably a question of equilibrium between your offensive needs and your hold capacity.
By the way, my experience in Sudan tells me that you cannot afford to be cheap if you try to rebuild a country. That just does not work because the 5% of incompetent and the 30% of not so competent people are becoming 35% of 10 people and it becomes just ineffective. :eek:

M-A Lagrange
06-17-2010, 10:51 AM
South Sudan army and renegade general clash in Jonglei State
June 16, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The southern Sudan army killed 10 rebels loyal to General George Athor and lost three soldiers after fierce fighting in Jonglei state, the SPLA stated Wednesday.
The fighting took place on Tuesday when a SPLA search team composed of 35 members discovered the hideout of the renegade general in Khorflus area, Jonglei State, according to statements by the SPLA spokesperson Kuol Diem Kuol.
George Athor Deng, a former deputy chief of Staff in South Sudan army, rebelled after his defeat in the gubernatorial election in Jonglei state. Recently he said coordinating with other rebels in Jonglei and Unity States.
Athor called for peace talks to end clashes between his forces and regional army and the dissolution of the recently elected government of Southern Sudan. He is also demanding resignation of Jonglei Governor-elect Kuol Manyang Juuk alongside threats to attack Bor town, the state capital.
The Southern Sudanese authorities declined mediation by the UN mission in Sudan and brushed aside his demands. Since the SPLA is tracking down Athor preferring to deal militarily with his rebellion.
The SPLA said that supporters of renegade senior officer George Athor, who were captured on Sunday, had provided the southern army with his location.
The general Athor, in a message to Sudan Tribune sent through a reliable contact said he only lost five of his men in yesterday fighting "in a place called Ngong near to Korfulous". He also claimed they counted 40 dead from the SPLA troops.
He further said they captured 25 AK-47’s and 4 PKMs from the SPLA.
The renegade general dismissed statement by the spokesperson of the Southern Sudan army about the capture of 13 of his men and radio equipment.
"These were civilian youth from the area and not our soldiers" he said. Athor also denies that SPLA took any radio equipment.
On June 4, the SPLA attacked the positions of forces loyal to former southern Sudan police officer in Unity State, Colonel Galuak Gai, who turned rebel shortly after April elections.
The SPLA spokesperson said today they are hunting Gen. Athor adding they expected more fighting with him. However he insisted on the southern Sudan determination to end this critical situation six months before the referendum on self determination.
"We will pursue him until he surrenders and if he refuses we will kill him," Kuol added.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35414

The response to General Athor rebellion is in the pure line of Wilf irregular war approach.
As the rebel Gen. Athor refused all honorable propositions and started to either give idea or rally other trouble makers, the SPLM and SPLA had 2 combined actions on political and military level.
On political level: they ran new elections and admitted the new results, even if the SPLM lost his dominant position.
On military: first the SPLA isolated Athor. Then they crushed the possible Athor allies and other trouble makers. Finally they crush Athor.

Naturally, there are other issues that could have been used by the insurgents if they had time to develop a complex narrative support (Mao Level 1 of “guerrilla”: propaganda) as the civilian disarment and other land issues which are fuelling the populace eager against the SPLM/A. As Mike (JMM) pointed it out, this phase is capital because it would have allowed Athor to rally many others around him, even if they disagree with his political agenda. Fortunately, in South Sudan, the things are not that much elaborated.

And personnaly, I think that it is the first level of critic you can make to Wilf. This worked because first Athor had no real political agenda, therefore no narrative to rally populace. With much more complexe and elaborated opponant who would have taken time to build a narrative, then the solution might not be than easy. (there are several example of the contrary, I admit it, as in South America or may be in in Thayland).

The second level of critic I see is the fact that: yes SPLM/A cut the grass under the feet of Athor and crushed his rebellion timely,but they did not respond to the root causes of the attempt of rebellion. And that is where with Wilf we do concur: it is not a military job but a political and civil administration job. But if you do not address the root causes, then you still have a high insurgency potential (CF Bobworld sheme). So you are vulnerable according to irregular war theory as you did not win the political war.

And thirdly, even if SPLA claim they had proof of Athor support from outside, apparently it was not that strong. And that is also may be the third level of critic you can do to Wilf.
In the case of South Sudan, the issue is addressed but ti is complex as you have a lot of players in the game (USA, China, Arab League, Iran… Name it).

America urged to withdraw military aid to Sudan

External support is vital for insurgents at the early stages. If they have some, then the military solution is not effective as, to reuse the medical analogy, it is as a cancer: you can remove the infected portions, it would grow again. DRC is a perfect exemple of this problematic with the small armed groups which are pacified and disarmed one day and the next one: an external player (a State or a criminal group) will provide them the means to rearm and all the circus starts again.

And by the way, what ever disagreement and agreements we may have on theoritical/moral points: no retired UK soldier living in the patriachal land has been tortured by single man or team to writte this post ;)
The use/reference of any SWJ members is a mark of respect for all the expertise,experience and knowledge of each individual cited in that post. :cool:

William F. Owen
06-17-2010, 02:29 PM
The response to General Athor rebellion is in the pure line of Wilf irregular war approach.
While I am somewhat troubled that my doctrine or opinions may have been so mis-understood, I'll have to read this several times to understand it, but

a.) Was armed force used against armed force? - as part of a policy.
b.) Did that create the condition where by the rebels were unable to advance their agenda via violence?
If yes, then Aye!

no retired UK soldier living in the patriachal land has been tortured by single man or team to writte this post ;)

A.) I am not retired. I'm only 47!
B.) It's the land of Partachia, Nothing to do with "patriachal".
If you have never stood in a traffic jam because there is donkey sleeping in the road, you will never understand. The Partach people are pushy, noisy, impatient. They never plan, and always take short cuts. The rule is there are no rules. If you want to check that a sandwich is fresh, - take a bite! Your car has a horn? Use it!!
...unless you live it, you'll never know! :eek:

M-A Lagrange
06-17-2010, 03:42 PM
Funny, the place you are looks like a United Nations camp in somewhere hot. Including the donkey.

a.) Was armed force used against armed force? - as part of a policy.
b.) Did that create the condition where by the rebels were unable to advance their agenda via violence?
If yes, then Aye!

Actually yes, as it is said in the article quoted.
My only points were that it was possible because:
a) insurgents were not organised (no real coordination) and without populace support (no propagand)
b) indurgents had very low external support
c) it does not respond to the core roots of the political problems which created the condition for a group of insurgent to emerge.

And I think that is why it worked. I tend to believe that in other context where you have:
a) organised insurgents with effective propagand and military coordination
b) insurgent with strong external support (weapons, ammunitions, advisor, money...)
c) Government not responding to the main population claims

The use of force does not work. And this what ever you are effective on the military level. As in Algeria for exemple.

The key being to identify the population legitimate and reasonable claims that a government can respond to. The big problem being that if they do not respond to it, it is because they tend to believe that the claims are not legitimate or may endanger them. But to this, the military cannot do anything.

William F. Owen
06-17-2010, 05:01 PM
Funny, the place you are looks like a United Nations camp in somewhere hot. Including the donkey.

The UN Camps are over the fence.

The use of force does not work. And this what ever you are effective on the military level. As in Algeria for exemple.

Really? 3,500 of recorded human history presents overwhelming evidence that it does.
Algeria? The FLN won by killing 28,000 French soldiers.
The Somalis got the US out of Mogadishu by killing 18 and wounding 70. The Vietnamese killed 57,000 US troops and got the US to abandon Vietnam.
AQ could not kill enough Americans to get the Americans to leave Iraq.

M-A Lagrange
06-17-2010, 06:15 PM
Really? 3,500 of recorded human history presents overwhelming evidence that it does.
Algeria? The FLN won by killing 28,000 French soldiers.
The Somalis got the US out of Mogadishu by killing 18 and wounding 70. The Vietnamese killed 57,000 US troops and got the US to abandon Vietnam.
AQ could not kill enough Americans to get the Americans to leave Iraq.

Wilf, you are twisting the question :D, but I should have been more specific :rolleyes: : it does not work to win a counter insurgency war.

The Algeria exemple is exactly that: France did ask them to fight 2 WW and never responded to legitimate demands from the people. So you create the conditions for an insurgency. And by waiting, you create the conditions for the insurgents to get organised and develop their narrative to rally a larger portion of population to them than the ones who do really concure with their political objective.
Taking DRC exemple back: as long as there is an external player who is paying insurgents, there will be no rest in the area for the Kinshasa government. (Not mentioning that as they do not do the first point: respond to people legitimate demands and even less their troops demand, they do shoot a bullet in their foot every morning...).

The Sudan exemple is at contrary the perfect illustration of what you preach:
1) try to isolate the insurgents on a soft manner (in the Sudan case buy the insurgent chief with a high ranked post)
2) if that does not work: adress immediatly the population legitimate demand to win the political battle
3) isolate the insurgent forces
4) crush the insurgents

You have won on the 2 level of "revolutionary war"/irregular war: the political level and the military one.
If we extend that to the COIN theory and shift of battle field from politic to governance... The results may be fuzzy if you do not sustain you efforts defined at political level: adress people legitimate demands to win the battle of governance and build trust among the people on the government legitimacy.

But I know that you have difficulties to buy the last part. ;)

William F. Owen
06-18-2010, 04:54 AM
The Sudan exemple is at contrary the perfect illustration of what you preach:

Well I hope I do not "preach." It does seem I have to repeat myself a lot because people do not seem to want to understand that killing is the primary instrument of warfare

If we extend that to the COIN theory and shift of battle field from politic to governance... The results may be fuzzy if you do not sustain you efforts defined at political level: adress people legitimate demands to win the battle of governance and build trust among the people on the government legitimacy.

a.) COIN Theory is a pseudo-science, composing a collection of very wholly concepts, that essentially fails to understand the enduring nature of war, and its relationship with politics based on fear, honour and interest.

b.) Rebels use "killing" to set forth a policy - NOTHING TO DO WITH GOVERNANCE, JUSTICE OR LEGITIMACY. It is killing for political gain.
The Government use force against the rebels is stop them gaining their political objective via violence.

We have to get over the "Oprah Winfrey" "Rebels have a Legitimate cause," crap. Rebels want political power and they want to use violence to get it.
When I was in Algeria in the mid-90's the GIA did not have a legitimate cause.
When I was in Sierra Leone, the RUF did not have a legitimate cause.
When I was in Thailand, the Rebels in the South did not have a legitimate cause.
Additionally, if you do have legitimate cause, the government should kill you, if you try to advance your cause via violence.

M-A Lagrange
06-20-2010, 09:24 AM
SPLA chief calls on General Nyuol to bury election differences
In a meeting he had on Thursday in Khartoum with General Dau and Sultan Abdalbagi Ayii Akol, among other political leaders from Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, Kiir called for forgiveness saying the South had a lot of issues to resolve as a people with one identity.
“We have a lot to resolve together with one identity as South Sudanese people in order to create conducive political ground for conduct of the referendum and other post referendum arrangements,” he told Dau.
“I would prefer [that] you come to Juba to once again meet and discuss with you some other issues and how to forge new understanding,” Kiir said, adding that elections are now over.
Gen. Dau was just among other several independent candidates who contested for gubernatorial positions and lost in their respective states. Another General, George Athor Deng, has rebelled against the government after losing the race to his main rival, Kuol Manyang Juuk, in Jonglei state.

General Athor says none of his soldiers were captured by SPLA
June 18, 2010, (AKON) – A former senior army general in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has said none of his soldiers has been captured by the government forces in Southern Sudan.
“Before our forces clashed with the SPLA forces at the reconnaissance on Wednesday, we had information that SPLA forces were in the area three hours walk from our location gathering military information about us. They were beating and threatening to kill local people who refused to cooperate with [them] in lying about us,” he further explained.
“Others did [cooperate with the SPLA] and those who did not want to do so were accused, and I am told they were the ones arrested and reported to have been our forces. Nobody has been captured from our forces. I repeat nobody has been captured or surrendered,” he said.
He also denied killing of any one of his soldiers after the recent clashes with the SPLA forces. “Our forces met and just exchanged fire with SPLA forces and did not kill anybody on our side. Those who went for reconnaissance on Wednesday returned with slight injuries. Some of them are not gunshot [wounds],” he said.
He earlier claimed to have coordinated the rebellion with the former Police Colonel Gatluak Gai in Unity state and David Yauyau in Pibor County of Jonglei state, adding that he has also been coordinating with some other army senior officers across the region.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35430

Wait and see...
But it is clear that SPLA has difficulties to do the shift from military driven political organisation to national army in the service of a civil political power...

06-20-2010, 10:50 AM


Wait and see...
But it is clear that SPLA has difficulties to do the shift from military driven political organisation to national army in the service of a civil political power...

And if we learn anything from history the SPLA will not be able to make this shift...

M-A Lagrange
06-20-2010, 06:00 PM
And if we learn anything from history the SPLA will not be able to make this shift...

Yes, there is some kind of curse on the rebel movements trying to become a political party.
But I believe it also partly ecause the international community always tries to make some kind of inclusive agreement to sign one general peace agreement with everyone not trying to find out who is really what. :eek:

06-20-2010, 06:37 PM
such as Mustafa Kemal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk), who can take a chaotic army in a chaotic nation, and turn that army into that nation's constitutional protector. Of course, today, his methods would be regarded as "unsound".



06-20-2010, 07:17 PM
such as Mustafa Kemal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk), who can take a chaotic army in a chaotic nation, and turn that army into that nation's constitutional protector. Of course, today, his methods would be regarded as "unsound".



History tells us that rather than become the "nation's constitutional protector" it is likely that these same people will believe that through their efforts the country "owes them big" and even in some cases to the extent that they "own the country" what will happen here will be a balance somewhere in between.

M-A Lagrange
06-20-2010, 07:31 PM
History tells us that rather than become the "nation's constitutional protector" it is likely that these same people will believe that through their efforts the country "owes them big" and even in some cases to the extent that they "own the country" what will happen here will be a balance somewhere in between.

Actually they already made the choice: they own the country...
That's why Gen Akhol is so upset about the people's choice.

M-A Lagrange
06-23-2010, 02:13 PM
Extension of the Dispatch of Japanese Self-Defense Forces Personnel to the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS)

TOKYO, Japan, June 23, 2010/African Press Organization (APO)/ — On June 22 , the Cabinet made a decision to extend the dispatch of the two personnel of the Self-Defense Forces to the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) for another year.
Under the International Peace Cooperation Law, Japan has dispatched two Self-Defense Forces personnel to UNMIS as staff officers since October 2008. In response to the UN Security Council’s decision in April 2010 to extend the mandate of UNMIS for another year, the Government of Japan decided to extend the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces personnel.
As a responsible member of the international community, Japan will contribute to the Sudan peace process and to further strengthening of bilateral relations by this deployment of Self-Defense Forces personnel to UNMIS. In addition, the Mission is expected to make an important contribution to the peace and stability of Africa as a whole and is thus considered significant.
(Reference 1) Overview of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS)
On January 9, 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, ending the civil conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army. In response, in March 2005 the UNMIS was established with the main purpose of supporting the implementation of the CPA (consisting of up to 10,000 military personnel, United Nations Security Council resolution 1590). In order to deal with the significant challenges pertaining to implementation of the CPA (demarcation of a North/South border, Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR), conducting referenda, etc.) the continued involvement of the international community is required in addition to the efforts by the directly involved parties.
(1) Date of establishment: March 24, 2005 (United Nations Security Council resolution 1590)
(2) Expiry date of mandate: April 30, 2011 (United Nations Security Council resolution 1919)
(3) Mandate
(a) Supporting the implementation of the CPA;
(b)Facilitation and coordination for the voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons;
(c) Humanitarian demining assistance, technical advice and coordination;
(d) Contribution to and coordination of international efforts to protect promote human rights and to protect civilians; and others
(4) Troop and Police Contributors (as of the end of May 2010) 67 countries (including the G8 (except France and Italy*), China, and Republic of Korea) Approximately 10,600 troops (*France and Italy have contributed troops in the past)

(Reference 2) The posts of the Japanese staff officers with UNMIS.
(1) Staff officer in the Logistics Planning Office, Force Headquarters.
(2) Staff officer/Data Base Manager in the Joint Mission Analysis Cell under the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General.

Japan – Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Well, Japan has interresting investments on the Red Sea State... :rolleyes:
The new threat for China in Africa: Japan and Korea.

M-A Lagrange
06-24-2010, 03:28 PM
Cyprus holding Sudan bound ship carrying tanks
June 22, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — The Cyprus government disclosed today that it is investigating a Barbuda flagged cargo vessel that stopped for refueling on June 11 at its port of Limassol on suspicion that it is carrying weapons heading to Sudan which could potentially be a violation to UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
The daily Phileleftheros, which broke the story, said the vessel was transporting tanks and large quantities of explosives, and was blocked after a tip-off from the United States. A spokesman at the U.S. embassy in Nicosia said Washington was not involved.
Phileleftheros said that the authorities in Cyprus are awaiting for a convincing explanation from the ship’s captain on the nature and destination of the cargo. The port police customs officers searched the ship and confirmed the presence of weapons on board.
However, the captain furnished documents showing that the tanks were destined for Singapore while the explosives were headed to Algeria.

Sudan says Cyprus ship contains mining explosives not arms
"The boat contains explosives destined for Port Sudan, for mining firm Ariab which needs them to work a gold mine," Abdel-Baqi Al Gailani, Sudan’s minister responsible for mining, told Agence France Presse (AFP).
"It has nothing to do with the military" he told Reuters in a separate interview.
"Sudan has been importing explosives since the early 1990s to work this gold mine, and has never had any problems in the past. It’s the first time this has happened. It’s absurd," he said.
The mine at Hassay, 450 kilometers northeast of the capital Khartoum, is Sudan’s first - and only - gold mine.

We will see… But actually there is in Scandinavia the trial of an oil company for its participation to the Sudan civil war: LUNDIN PETROLEUM
(Unfortunately in French)

M-A Lagrange
06-27-2010, 10:58 AM
Cyprus releases Sudan bound ship after two-week holdup
June 25, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The Cypriot authorities finally cleared a Barbuda flagged cargo vessel containing an explosive shipment bound for Sudan following two week investigation into whether that is considered a violation of arms embargo imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the European Union (EU).

And Uganda visit its neighbour:

Ugandan Ambassador to Sudan visits W. Equatoria
The Ugandan Ambassador to Sudan Madam Akech Okullu Betty escorted by the Uganda Consul General to Juba, Mr. Busha Ndinyenga and the Kenyan Consul to Juba Mr. Ibrahim Khamis Adam were highly received by Western Equatoria State Governor, Col Bangasi Joseph Bakosoro.
Addressing, the regional guests in his office at the state secretariat, Col Bakosoro said he is honored and privileged to have them in the State with good gestures of respect towards WES with a sign of togetherness as the great lakes region.
Col Bangasi appreciated their congratulatory message saying their coming to WES gives hope to the people as people concerned and caring for their fellow brothers and sisters being terrorized by the notorious LRA rebels for the past five years.
The governor stressed that, "amongst the ten States of Southern Sudan, WES has never enjoyed and experienced the CPA signed in 2005 due to the havoc and atrocities imported by the brutal LRA rebels."
And as a result:

South Sudan army vows to clear LRA rebels
The regional government of Southern Sudan has intensified its military operations to uproot the Ugandan rebels of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) from the state of Western Equatoria.

All this while in North Libya and Khartoum are finding a way to neutralise JEM the last group who did not sign Doha agreement.
I do not know if peace is on the way but power consolidation on both sides is productive:
Sudan says Libya’s expulsion of JEM chief
Sudan’s SPLM & NCP sign MOU on post-referendum arrangements

M-A Lagrange
06-28-2010, 03:18 PM
Blackwater to reach settlement with U.S. DOJ on violating Sudan sanctions
June 27, 2010 (WASHINGTON) – The U.S. defense contractor Blackwater Worldwide is negotiating with federal authorities on a settlement regarding violations of Sudan sanctions that took place since 2005, McClatchy Newspapers said in an investigative report.
Sudan has been under U.S. sanctions since 1997 though in 2006 the Bush administration lifted them in the South of the country and other areas with limited exceptions. The U.S. has been attempting to make sure that ease the impact of the sanctions on South Sudan which enjoys Washington’s backing.
After negotiating a $2 million draft contract to train South Sudan president Salva Kiir’s personal security detail, Blackwater in early 2007 drafted a detailed second proposal, valued at more than $100 million, to equip and train southern Sudan’s army.
Because the south lacked ready cash, Blackwater sought 50% of its untapped mineral wealth, a former senior U.S. official said.

Unrealistic Expectations: Current Challenges to Reintegration in Southern Sudan

This paper takes a critical look at the first, ongoing phase of the DDR process in Southern Sudan, and specifically at the reintegration component. It briefly outlines how DDR is currently implemented as well as its progress to date. It discusses the dynamics and challenges of reintegrating ex-combatants into local communities in light of the current security environment, and considers how to minimize risks of further destabilization and insecurity due to DDR. The paper also looks at the feasibility of social and economic reintegration, considering both the socio-economic context and the specific social composition of the first group of ex-combatants to be reintegrated. In addition, it reflects on lessons learned from the reintegration of returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to highlight both the challenges and the opportunities ahead for the successful and sustainable reintegration of ex-combatants.

M-A Lagrange
07-30-2010, 11:26 AM
Sudan’s NCP hints at delaying the 2011 referendum over border demarcation

July 29, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today suggested that the 2011 referendum in South Sudan may have to be delayed until the border demarcation process is completed.
"That is a condition for all referendums around the world that might lead to the creation of a new sovereign state," Ibrahim Ghandour, a senior official of the National Congress Party (NCP), told Agence France Presse (AFP) today.
Ghandour added that failure to agree on a border could lead to a new conflict and in a separate interview with the BBC gave examples of the conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

This is no good...

M-A Lagrange
08-01-2010, 01:50 PM
South Sudan’s Kiir says referendum must take place with or without borders
July 31, 2010 (JUBA) – The referendum in Southern Sudan will take place as scheduled on 9th January 2011 whether or not the North-South borders are demarcated, says the President of the semi-autonomous region.
General Salva Kiir Mayardit, who also holds the position of the First Vice President of Sudan, while addressing thousands of people during the commemoration of Martyrs Day on Friday, said the referendum cannot be delayed because of the non completion of the borders demarcations.
“There are those who are saying the referendum cannot be conducted before the demarcation of the borders. This is a very big lie,” Kiir told the crowd who responded with ululations and hand claps.
He said the borders were supposed to be conducted even before the elections but the other partner dragged its feet on the implementation of it. The elections were however conducted without borders, he added.
Kiir, who also holds the same view with his other senior colleagues in his government, seemed to have directly responded to the suggestion by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) on Thursday that the 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan may have to be delayed until the border demarcation process is completed.
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum accused the northern dominant ruling party, NCP, of historical violations agreements on self-determination. He said it was not for the first time that Khartoum’s NCP signed an agreement on self-determination.
“It was not the first time in the CPA that they [NCP] agreed on self-determination. They [Khartoum] agreed for the first time on self-determination in the 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreement and Fashoda agreement, but they violated it,” he told the cheering crowd, adding that the NCP is now beginning to talk of postponing the self-determination exercise if the North-South borders are not demarcated.
He said this was a lie and warned that whether Khartoum likes it or not the referendum must be conducted by the 9th January 2011.

This goes in the right direction for a "peacefull" process...

Attacks on staff force MSF to evacuate parts of Jonglei state
Apart from a small medical facility belonging to the Ministry of Health in Pibor town, home to some 150.000 people, MSF is the only primary healthcare provider in that part of Jonglei State.
The organization’s decision will deprive thousands of people from access to the much-needed medical assistance and leave the fate of over 160 malnourished children in jeopardy.
A month ago, an unknown armed group reportedly raided Gumuruk clinic, stealing boxes of a therapeutic ready-to-use food needed to treat severely malnourished children. A similar attack allegedly occurred three days later.
MSF said that four of its staffs traveling by boat from Pibor to Gumuruk were violently robbed by armed men on 27 July.
A statement released yesterday by the head of the MSF’s mission in south Sudan, Mr. Rob Mulder, said that attacks on staff left the organization “with no other choice than to suspend all medical activities in the area.”
“Attacks on our staff and clinics prevent us from providing essential medical aid. These incidents are totally unacceptable as they stop us from accessing patients and put our staff at risk,” the statement read.
The statement declared that though “we are fully committed to providing emergency medical aid to Gumuruk community, we have been “left with no other choice than to suspend all medical activities in our outreach clinic,”
MSF has hitherto been operating a primary healthcare centre in Pibor town, Jonglei State, including two smaller outreach clinics in more remote areas of Lekwongole and Gumuruk; both of which are only accessible by plane or boat during rainy seasons.
According to MSF, Gumuruk outreach clinic renders basic medical care services to a population of more than 30,000 people. These services include general consultations, treatment for malnutrition, ante-natal care and vaccinations.
Gbane Mahama, MSF’s medical coordinator for Southern Sudan, said that apart from the cases of more than 160 malnourished children receiving treatment at Gumuruk clinic, the unit receives at least 20 new child-related cases weekly.

When NGO pull out... This is never a good sign

M-A Lagrange
08-02-2010, 02:03 PM
VP Taha says South Sudan independence will cause conflicts, disintegration
"All the experiences of secession in the African continent was doomed to fail; in Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Congo" Taha told a youth gathering for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the Sudanese capital.
"All the countries in the continent except two support North-South unity even the major powers hostile to Sudan" he added. "This means that there is no one is working for separation" Taha said describing pro-secession forces as "losers".
"Even if the South separates it is threatened with further split if it witnesses differences" the Sudanese VP added. Sudan’s referendum, a key provision of the 2005 peace deal which ended a devastating 22-year civil war between the north and south, is due next January, allowing southerners to choose independence or remain with a united Sudan.
Taha called for a national dialogue to focus on things that promote unity rather than encourage secession.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35827

Must say that I do have to agree with him somehow. But only on the principle.

NCP-SPLM meet in Cairo to discuss Sudan’s unity and Islamic Sharia’a laws

Discussing the implementation of sharia Law in South does not really participates to make Unity attractive… :rolleyes:

M-A Lagrange
08-04-2010, 02:14 PM
SPLM and NCP have agreed to conduct referendum without defining borders... Why not. This could mean that SPLM is secretly hoping referendum will go for unity... :rolleyes

While SPLM is sleeping, North is preparing separation:

Nomads Accused of Settling in Contested Region
The chief administrator of the region, Deng Arop Kuol, told reporters in Khartoum that Misseriya nomads have been moving into 20 locations in northern Abyei.
"We are getting information that they intend to settle 25,000 families in those areas and the number of people will go up to 75,000 in those areas. We believe it is something organised," Kuol said.
"The Misseriya are in no way meant to vote in the Abyei referendum, because they are not residents. They are meant to be nomads."
Meanwhile Manyiel told RFI the Misseriya had begun building houses and infrastructure, and that the neighbouring state of Southern Kordofan was also behind the settlement drive, working with Khartoum.
"The governor of Southern Kordofan, I am accusing him. He knows what is going on. He should stop these people from coming and settling," Manyiel said.
"He has a secret agreement with them to come and settle in the area."
"They are for war, they are not for peace. This area should by administered by Abyei, and the residents should be those from Abyei."http://allafrica.com/stories/201008031106.html

Personnaly, I am not convicend by the idea that you can have a separation and creation of a new country without setting borders first. Seems like a recipy for desaster to me in close, medium or long range timeline...
Well, time will tell.

08-08-2010, 03:55 PM
Personnaly, I am not convicend by the idea that you can have a separation and creation of a new country without setting borders first. Seems like a recipy for desaster to me in close, medium or long range timeline...
Well, time will tell.

You are so very correct. The problem is to reach agreement on the line of the border especially where it runs through oil fields. No matter what the demarcation is there will be one side aggrieved to the extent it will be prepared to go to war to have their way. Being in China's area of influence I watch their actions with interest.

M-A Lagrange
08-08-2010, 10:59 PM
Sudan signs oil exploration deal for new Block E
August 6, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan’s oil ministry signed Friday a new deal with a small oil and gas exploration firm based in Luxembourg to explore a new block called E which runs through five states in southern Sudan and Darfur.
The long slim Block covers an area of approximately 50,000 km2, and has a potential estimated in 2 Billion Barrels of oil. It is located over the south margin of the Muglad basin where more than 10 billion barrels of oil have been discovered.
Block E traverses four southern states — Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, Western Bahr el-Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap — and South Darfur in north Sudan.
The contract was signed by the Sudanese oil minister Lual Deng and Farshad Zandi of Star Petroleum company which takes a 75 percent share of the block. Also were present at the signing ceremony Southern Sudan oil minister and the governors of the concerned states.
The Star company was candidate to join Total in Block B earlier this year to take the share of the American Marathon Inc after the withdrawal of the Emirate Mubadala, but the French operator was reluctant to work with this new partner.

Sudan’s oil giant set to meet Ethiopia’s annual fuel demand
However, Earlier this year, a new benzene supplying agreement was signed between governments of Ethiopia and Sudan, extending their cooperation for another year.
The Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise has planned to import 2,176,188 tonnes of fuel including benzene with projected budget of 1.42 billion USD for the current fiscal year. The volume of the fuel projected to be imported this year exceeds that of last year by 500,000 tonnes.
In the past five years, benzene supplies from Sudan had accounted lessthan 10% of Ethiopia’s annual consumption. Currently, Sudan supplys 82 percent of Ethiopia’s annual benzene consumption
The Horn of Africa country had been spending massive costs for inspection and vessel prices to import Fuel all the way from the Middle East. This makes the benzene that comes from Sudan significantly cheaper.

Interesting development of the Sudanese oil business.
While Sudan remains on the terrorist list of USA, it also strangely participates to the international effort to reduce Middle East oil market supremacy. Knowing Chinese dependency over Sudanese oil, I doubt all this was done without their agreement.
I also wonder how Uganda will react. In fact, a secession of South without clear borders defined and an increase of North Sudan oil production capacity might serve Museveni rather than the contrary.

M-A Lagrange
08-16-2010, 02:37 PM
US special envoy to Sudan may soon depart: report

On Friday, the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy quoted multiple sources as saying that Gration “is considering taking the job of U.S. Ambassador in Nairobi.”
However, the sources said that Gration is lobbying to keep his Sudan portfolio even as ambassador to Kenya which the magazine said will likely become an uphill battle doomed to fail.
One administration source said that the plan had been to nominate Gration during the congressional recess, as to avoid a lengthy confirmation debate, but that plan was no longer operative and Gration would be nominated and confirmed through the usual process. Gration’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
John Prendergast, who leads the Enough Project, was quoted by Foreign Policy as saying, "During the last year and a half, we’ve seen increased violence in Darfur and the deadliest months in five years, we saw an election that was completely compromised without any resulting sanctions, we’ve seen a deepening of the rifts that could cause a resumption of war between the north and the south. None of these have elicited from the Obama administration anything more than an occasional statement. This has given a clear green light to the regime in Khartoum to pursue its warmongering as usual. Gration has overseen this policy.”

Well, his successor, if anyone is nominated, will have not get an easy task. After being criticised inside US and Sudan, the special representant will have a referendum to save.

Sudan’s referendum body chief threatens to resign

The secretary-general controls the funds and budget of the commission and south Sudan’s ruling party has warned the deadlock could derail the vote.
"If things continue like this I will just excuse myself that’s all," Khalil added.
"This [commission] can only work if we can get people to be cooperative, to have mutual trust ... and to approach things objectively from a national point, not from the point of view of north and south," Khalil said.
"With things as they are, all resolutions would be a foregone conclusion," he said. "The five [southern] members are determined to vote as a block — to me this is just not acceptable, it makes a nonsense of the whole process."
Khalil said of the 63 positions outlined in the Referendum Law, 59 had already been filled by southerners. He said he had left the problem for the presidency to decide.
"I am not prepared to head a commission that works this way. With things are they are, all resolutions would be a foregone conclusion," he said.
But SPLM official Pagan Amum said Khalil showed "tendencies of dictatorship" for ignoring the majority opinion in the body.
"If these problems are not resolved quickly the referendum commission will definitely fail to deliver on organising the referendum," he added.
On Friday, the commission chief lashed out at Amum questioning in an interview with the pro-government Al-Rayaam why the SPLM has failed to have the referendum law sooner. Khalil called on the Amum to find out for himself the obstacles facing the commission to resolve them.
This week, Sudanese media reported that the commission submitted a request to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) demanding a postponement to the referendum date saying that it would be not be possible to complete all the deliverables by the due date which includes registering the voters.
The SPLM has rejected any delay to the referendum suggesting that it will take other measures if that occurs and some observers believe that would include a unilateral; declaration of independence by South Sudan legislative assembly. But the Northern ruling party said this would amount to an act of war.

JEM denies reports of deal to setup military base in Uganda

On Saturday, Sudan Media Center (SMC), which is closely linked to the country’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), carried a report alleging that a delegation of JEM comprising Ahmad Adam Bakhit, Mansur Arbab and Ahmad Nuqua Lisan had “secretly visited Kampala last week" and met with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni "in the presence of an SPLM’s representative".
According to SMC’s "reliable" sources, Museveni had pledged to setup a military base for JEM in Uganda and supply Darfur rebels with arms. SMC’s sources further elaborated that Museveni had agreed to assist JEM and provide it with all necessary support including “delivery of weapons, issuance of travelling documents and passports to facilitate easier moves for JEM members into other countries.”
Also, SMC sources reported that Museveni had proposed Salva Kiir in his capacity as Sudan’s first vice-president and president of south Sudan to restore JEM’s relations with the countries in the region, in reference to Chad which recently severed its longstanding ties with JEM after normalizing its relations with Khartoum. SMC sources suggested a link between JEM delegations’s alleged meeting with Ugandan president and the two-day visit of Slava Kiir to Kampala last week.
"JEM categorically denies the reports appearing in local press in Khartoum on Sunday 15 August, which says that a delegation of JEM met with the Ugandan president Museveni," declared a press release on JEM’s website.
There is no smoke without fire... Well let see. What is interresting is that Khartoum is pointing Kampala as the one instigating "war" in Sudan now.

M-A Lagrange
08-19-2010, 01:42 PM
First SPLM decided to play it harsh:

SPLM to boycott referendum meeting with Sudanese president
The Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) deputy secretary general Yasir Arman said in a statement today that the political bureau of the movement decided to skip the meeting with Bashir.
"This [meeting] appears more of an NCP leadership meeting than a joint meeting of political powers that allows everyone to reach a consensus and come with a joint vision" Arman said in the statement.
"Therefore the SPLM regrets that it will not be part of Thursday’s meetings and we hope to participate in an upcoming meeting that would have better preparation and agreement among its participants,".
It is not clear whether other parties will share the same position by the SPLM. Previously the Umma Party headed by Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi rejected Bashir’s invitation saying it was addressed to its leader and not to the party.
In a related issue, the NCP said that an arrangement known as the "four freedoms" cannot be put in place between the North and South in the event of secession.
The "four freedoms" is an accord signed between Sudan and Egypt that allows citizens from both countries to have the right to work, reside, own and move freely between the two countries. It has yet to be fully implemented between the countries due to objections from the Egyptian parliament.
A meeting hosted by Cairo last month between the NCP and the SPLM suggested a similar accord between the North and South for a post-separation state.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35995

Just to be able to make their point:

SPLM’s politburo rejects referendum delay
The final communiqué of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s (SPLM) politburo meeting in Juba, August 13 - 16, declared that, “there shall be no retreat from holding the referendum as scheduled on January 9, 2011.”
The South Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), which is tasked with organizing the exercise, has been deadlocked over the appointment of a secretary-general.
On March 15, the SSRC’s chairman, Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil, threatened to resign, saying that the southern members of the commission were voting as a block to prevent any northerner from taking the disputed post.
With a little US push:
U.S. special envoy hold talks with Sudanese officials
The U.S. State department spokesperson Philip J. Crowley told reporters today that Gration is seeking to push the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) to live up to all of the criteria under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and continue to move forward in preparation for the referendum next January".
Currently the referendum preparation process is lagging well behind the timeline stipulated by the CPA primarily because of the delay in adopting the referendum law and the formation of the commission primarily because of disagreements between the NCP and the SPLM.
The referendum panel has yet to pick its secretary general because of SPLM objections over whether it should be a figure from the North or the South. Furthermore, the commission does not have headquarters or regulations in place to begin functioning leading its chief Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil to suggest that the January 9, 2011 date for the key vote would not be attainable.
According to the government sponsored Sudanese Media Centre (SMC) Khalil briefed Gration today on the time constraints facing the commission to discharge its mandate. He told SMC that the U.S. special envoy was "understanding" to the need to push both sides to agree on a secretary general.

But the real disagreement between North ans South lay most certainly there:

Sudan says committed to transparency in oil revenues
Under the 2005 peace accord between North and South Sudan, both sides agreed to share the country’s oil wealth, with the south receiving half the state revenues from the oil drilled from its territory.
"We hope to comfort all the Sudanese people that there will be transparency even if there was none in the past," said Deng, who is from the former southern rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) according to Reuters.
"The audit is basically to look at the production since 2005 — it will be done by an independent firm," Deng said. "Our preference is to accelerate the process so that the results are made available before the referendum," he added.
"It is the lack of transparency, or the perceived lack of transparency, that has fuelled mistrust between partners," Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted him as saying. "We want to enhance trust between the north and south."
The state minister for oil Ali Ahmed Osman stressed the importance of providing facts on the Global Witness report through cooperation and coordination between the Government of National Unity (GoNU) and the Government of the South Sudan (GoSS) to inform the public on the correctness of the wealth sharing and the commitment of Global Witness to achieve transparency through its handling of the facts without distortion.
Furthermore, Azhari Abdul-Qadir Secretary General of the Ministry of Oil, described the Global Witness report as "false" emphasizing the need for tracking facts on the production and manufacture of oil in Sudan to achieve transparency.
The Sudanese oil minister also revealed that his country is working on boosting output to at least 600,000 bpd next year.
Deng said current average output is now between 450,000 and 470,000 bpd from the two blends — Nile and Dar. That could reach 650,000 bpd on the back of increased production from Block 6 and more efficient oil recovery techniques, he said.
"For next year, all things being equal, we expect between 500,000 and 600,000. We are aiming at 650,000" bpd.
The assertions by Deng contradicts a report released this month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that oil output in Sudan is projected to peak in 2012 and to subsequently decrease gradually.
About 75 per cent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3bn barrels are in the south but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north.

Not so much a political dispute in fine. Only 2 too hungry future dictatorial regimes trying to find an agreement on how to feed their clique…
Tom, I am not that optimist for democracy in a separated or even unified Sudan without a leader like Garang.
Let see what the wild Uganda card will do. :rolleyes:

M-A Lagrange
08-21-2010, 12:24 PM
South Sudan would face humanitarian crisis after referendum

"We have to be ready, we have to have plans," said Southern Sudan government Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management James Kok Ruea before UN officials and aid groups in a meeting held in Juba today.
"The needs will be enormous, so we will need your support," he added.
"If the Islamic system in the north (National Congress Party government) decided to interrupt the smooth running of the referendum, then what do you think the situation is going to be?" He asked. "There will be tension and likely it will go back to war," he further added.
"What happens when fighting takes place? People are killed, properties are lost, the most vulnerable group are children, women, and elderly people. There would be massive displacement," he warned.
The U.N. Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Southern Sudan, Lise Grande, said donors have been very generous with Southern Sudan but said many people in the south still suffer..
Tribal violence in Southern Sudan last year killed some 700 people and displaced over 150,000, the UN reported.

Ok, that minister to keep his job needs a war. But in fact, he is so representative of South Sudan administration. SPLM and SPLA members do not know how to manage peace. If you give a close look at the situation, there is no police dispatch in rural areas, no real administration at county level… Then no real justice, no real understanding of the State and then democratic game by villagers.
The policemen are being kept as bodyguards by administrative staff in State/Province capital as if they were personal armies. They still manage the place as if they were in the bush fighting, securing road trades for personnal enrichment…
Even if South Sudan does not go at war with North, they will try to keep this place is state of emergency to have external powers to run it and flowed them with relief aid. What they do not get is that every body is tired of this, starting by the donors.
Still a long road to go for the people of South Sudan.

M-A Lagrange
08-24-2010, 11:18 AM
Many tings have occurred in the past days in South Sudan. So 2 post in once cause otherwise I'll get crazy editing the stuff. :D

First of all, SPLM stepped back from its positions concerning the referendum commission.
In fact, some are saying that external players as Mr Gration are not for nothing in that...

SPLM concedes position of the referendum body SG
The veteran lawyer Omer Al-Sheik, who worked in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), is expected to be tapped as the commission’s secretary general.
The SPLM launched a fierce media campaign against Al-Sheik, accusing him of "incompetence" and "failure" during his tenure in MINURSO and as such he is not fit to hold the SG position.

US envoy Gration brokered breakthrough in referendum body deadlock

A source privy to the situation told Sudan Tribune yesterday on condition of anonymity that it was the US special envoy, Scott Gration who persuaded the SPLM’s leadership to concede the position. In return, the source says, Gration had promised the SPLM that the referendum would be held as scheduled and that it would get the position of the commission’s deputy secretary-general which will be based in the south.
Furthermore, the source revealed that officials of the UN and the International Foundation for Elections System (IFES), a body providing technical assistance to the referendum process, told Gration in a meeting on Friday, August 20, at a donor office in Juba that his estimates of holding the referendum on time were “legally impossible.”, in reference to the timing constraints stipulated in the referendum act.
But Yasir Arman said that the SPLM had also decided to alter the scheduling of some of the process’s phases.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36052

Now let’s go for the creeping part of the story:

SPLM Mobilizes Arms, Welcomes New Allies
Learnt sources said, according Sudan Media Center (SMC) delivery of the all aircrafts will be finalized late this August, after pilots and engineers have been trained in Uganda and the USA, who were trained to operate the aircrafts in advanced manner. The aircrafts are expected to be in operation before end of this; however SPLM's Atem Garang denied the deal, describing the reports as cheap propaganda. He affirmed that the movement was not in need of sweeping of said deal under the rug.
In its issue dated Aug. 23, Al-Ahdath Arabic daily reported that the ruling National Congress Party NCP wants SPLM to be at "the mercy and hegemony of the north".

South is definitively on the path of war… Yes this comes from SUNA but the official discourses from South Sudan officials is clear: we will be independent, and North will do as we say. Otherwise we will have war. And if we do not get war, we willfind a reason to get a war.
South Sudan is actually topping up to come to the level of Kartoum which announced several weeks ago the construction of the first “African” jet fighter. (Knowing that Egypt did the same several decades ago and South Africa also…)
After tanks, SPLA is getting planes. Next step? A navy? ;)

But the real creepy news comes from Khartoum:

Sudan Prepares to Instal First Nuclear Rector for Research Purpose SUNA
Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency, scientists of the Sudanese Authority for Atomic Energy Agency and representatives of the Ministry of Electricity and Dams, NSIS,
Civil Defense got engaged in intensive meetings at the Civil Defense Head Quarters in Khartoum yesterday to discuss the feasibility study of importing the first nuclear reactor in Sudan for the purposes of scientific research.
The feasibility study has started earlier this year, after the approval by the International Atomic Energy Agency on the possibility of Sudan to acquire two nuclear reactors for electricity generation and scientific research purposes.
Addressing the inaugural session, Director-General of the Sudan Atomic Energy Agency, Prof. Mohamed Ahmed Hassan Tayeb stressed the importance of having the technologies of peaceful uses of atomic energy as well as the instrumentality of the research reactor and its contribution to the national infrastructures.http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=60124

North Sudan is willing to get the second nuclear reactor of African continent! Yes, the second one, because the first one is in… DRC! Chilling isn’t? :eek:

Well, I know a guy in Iran who just said the same. But launching air strikes from Juba or Uganda will be easier than from Tel Aviv…But may be not. Some lessons from 2006 Lebanon war still have not been learned may be.
Anyways, it's China who will be happy. Now they can openly do nuclear business. No need to sneek in nuclear material for Iran anymore, it's civilian Sudan nuclear plan business...

M-A Lagrange
08-24-2010, 11:19 AM
And finally, I believe the GoSS does read our posts in SWJ or at least the same books:

The Chinese government is keen on investing in the oil and agricultural sectors in South Sudan.
Speaking upon her arrival from China where she attended the China African Agricultural Forum, the newly-appointed Government of Southern Sudan’s Minister for Agriculture and Forestry Dr Anne Itto told the press that China has expressed her interest in developing South Sudan.
“From the discussions we had with the Chinese government, it is interested in having more oil blocks. It also wants to invest in minerals. It also expressed real interest to further develop their relationships with the ruling party, the SPLM”, Dr Itto said.
She added that China’s primary interest is not political but a partnership that would allow them to invest for the benefit of South Sudanese.http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/3991/Default.aspx

GoSS Seeks to Promote Private Sector
“It is our collective responsibility, be it the government, private sector and individuals to ensure that business skills which have been paralysed by the 20 – year civil war is revived for the prosperity of this nation”, said Pan.
The Director General explained that South Sudan’s market is a free market economy hence the government cannot impose laws restricting prices.
“Unless people begin producing local commodities to impact prices on the market, the people will continue buying at the current prices”, he cautioned.
“It would be upon us to utilise the fertile lands for agriculture since the government would never settle all our needs. The role of the government is to provide security and create a conducive atmosphere for its citizens to explore their talents for survival”, he said.http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/3993/Default.aspx

Welcome to the ultra liberal popular republic of South Sudan! :cool:
We will see if it either generates some taxes incomes or just sunk the common people in a poverty hole. Economist should remember that before regulating or deregulating the market, you actually need a market. That means a minimum solvability among the population. And relief aid just does not provide that. I know, there are cash for aid programs were you distribute cash straight to the people so they suddenly become solvable. Which is not a so much great idea as when you earn money for nothing, then you wonder why you do not always get your check for free…
But if there is a market booming in South, it’s the one of beer! After 20 years of war for the right to drink, South Sudan beer market is over booming. May be we should assess the effect on the security sector…

SABMiller Doubles Output of S.Sudan Brewery
SABMiller said on Friday it would double output at its brewing operations in southern Sudan by the end of the year, a sign of the economic boom taking root in the former war zone.
The decision to lift capacity to 350,000 hectolitres from 180,000 when the Juba-based brewery opened in May 2009 also suggests confidence in the stability of the south, which is likely to vote for independence in a January referendum.
"Many people questioned our logic in building not only the first brewery that southern Sudan had seen for 50 years but also the first manufacturing facility in Juba," said Ian Alsworth-Elvey, managing director of Southern Sudan Beverages Ltd (SSBL).
"However, the business has had a very warm welcome to the country and our beer, soft drinks and water brands have found real traction with consumers," he said.

And finally, to come back to our main subject: how to destabilize a future neighboring country, Khartoum is practicing agressive economic warfare:

South Sudan bank running out of foreign currency
The finance minister for the semi-autonomous region of Southern Sudan said on Monday that the government there is running short in foreign currency because of Khartoum remitting the South’s share of oil revenue in local currency.
David Deng Athorbei, the regional minister of finance and economic planning, who made the revelation said the move by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) was deliberate.
“This is a clear and complete violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. It is one of the most serious violations of the CPA because it has dire consequences,” said Athorbei.
Under the 2005 landmark peace deal between the north and the south, the Government of Southern Sudan’s 50% share of revenues generated from oil within its territory should be paid in hard currency into accounts managed by the Bank of Southern Sudan.
Athorbei noted that this was not the first time the central bank had changed payments for the oil exported from foreign currencies to Sudanese pounds.
“The changing of the hard currencies especially dollars has political motivations and was intentionally coined to suppress [the] economy of south Sudan. This is not the first time it is happening. They have done a lot in the past but [… ] not to this extent”, said the minister.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36049

That’s all folks.

M-A Lagrange
08-28-2010, 11:11 PM
Russia warns from new Somalia in South Sudan

"We as an international community and countries that are permanent Security Council members do not want a new Somalia in South Sudan"

Mr Margelov made this comment after a meeting in Cairo with the Arab League. He resumed very clearly what South Sudan is facing and would face after the referendum.
But SPLM is trying to make it attractive, does it please you or not:

China must recognize referendum result to retain oil assets

The only way for China to retain its millions-worth of oil assets in Sudan is to cultivate a “strong” relationship with the semi-autonomous region of south Sudan and recognize the outcome of a referendum due in January 2011 on the region’s possible independence, says south Sudan official.
Anne Itto, south Sudan’s minister of agriculture, told reporters yesterday in the region’s capital Juba upon returning from China that the Chinese government fears that its assets in Sudan’s oil would be “a waster” if the south opts for secession.
“A lot of wild rumors have been getting to them, that if the south separates, there will be insecurity, and if there is insecurity, their assets worth billions of dollars in the form of pipelines and so on will have been a waste,” she said.

I wonder how much China is confident in SPLM to be capable to secure its investments in South. And I am not that sure that threatening them with USA in mind is the solution. Cause, like it or not, China will deal with who is in power.
Some were already saying that Darfur was a "cold war" between China and USA. Well, are the US really ready to extend it to South Sudan. The potential of doing more harm than good is extremely high and dam real.
It would be somehow sad that the new US strategy in the sub region can be resume to creating another Great Lakes war.

M-A Lagrange
08-29-2010, 10:32 AM
First of all, some Kenyans are a little upset with Bashir visit. (Some Gration hand behind this already?)

Kenya’s PM party distances itself from Bashir’s visit as more details emerge on trip

“We would like to point out to Kenyans and the international community that this was indeed a very unfortunate visit that could put into question the commitment of the government to implement the Constitution of the second republic in letter and spirit,” Nyong told a news conference on Saturday according to Capital FM website.
"Our president was all set to travel to Nairobi for the ceremony and had even sent his advance team, only to be called by President Bashir on Thursday afternoon informing him that he would be in Nairobi. Mr Kiir had no choice but to cancel his trip because protocol does not allow them to travel out of the country at the same time,” said the head of the Southern Sudan referendum campaign, John Andruga Duku.

Just this resumes so well the atmosphere in Sudan. And Kenya does have a lot to loose with getting angry with South Sudan. Many of the infrastructure companies working actually in South are Kenyan (well Uganda must be happy.)
But Kenya is trying very hard to push China to fund the new Lamu port (which includes an international airport and a pipeline to Sudan oil plants). So inviting Bashir over Kiir does make sense in fact. Especially as China is officially supporting the Khartoum road to referendum. I do believe that China does make huge efforts to seduce Juba but up to now, US and UK bounds remain the most important.
Once again, we have here in fact a diplomatic war between Uganda and Kenya (with US and China behind) on who will get the oil cake market. The one who’s got the most to loose anyways is Kenya as they do not have oil, unlike Uganda. But Kenya does have “secured” boundaries with South Sudan. Last year events in Nadapal have clearly shown who the boss in town. And it’s not South Sudan who still depends on Kenya for its heavy military equipments imports.

South Sudan refutes claims that oil revenues have been paid in hard currency
The central banks governor has also refuted the south’s claims that they are running out of foreign currency. According to Hassan the Bank of Southern Sudan (BoSS) has reserves of up to US$726 million, twice the amount he says that the Central Bank possesses.
Elijah Malok Aleng, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Sudan and a governor of BoSS denied this. After a briefing with south Sudan’s president on Friday, he told South Sudan TV (SSTV) that south Sudan’s reserves were less than half what the central bank claimed.
“We only have a reserve of about US$300 million”, he said.
On Monday 23 August, Athorbe the southern finance minister told a press conference that the central bank’s action was starving the economy of southern Sudan of the hard currency it desperately needs to operate.
“The foreign exchange needed by the business community to pay for imports and to meet their foreign currency obligations and commitments cannot be provided. Investor confidence in southern Sudan is eroded as we cannot meet their foreign exchange requirements. The public is unable to send money to their families abroad for school fees or any other purpose’’, Athorbei said.

So if you were wondering what economical warfare impact does have, well here is a full open air demonstration.
Not that people could afford school fees in the first place but the impact in mainly on external investors and GoSS capacities.
In juba, you can pay in Sudanese Pounds but everyone will take (and prefer) dollars. The rate last month was 2.6 SP for 1US$ while on Uganda boarder, it was 2.75 or 2.8 for 1US$. Convert that in millions… Let say $426 millions. In Sudan Pounds at Juba rate (which was at the same level than Khartoum, 2.6), it makes SP 1107 million. Now go and convert it on regional market at 2.75 rate, it makes $402 million. Immediate loss: $24 millions. Ok, that was for 2 month only. So lets replicate it for 1 year, it makes a $144 million loss. On a South Sudan budget of 1.3 to 1.5 billion/year… That does make a difference. And we are talking on the fact that 50% (approximately) of the oil revenues are paid in hard currency. So in fact it’s a loss of $144 million on $750 millions, nearly 20% of expected revenues.
On a Khartoum point of view, this is all benefits: GoSS is either buying fewer weapons or building less infrastructures. In the end it affects South Sudan stability anyways.

Cause don't forget, South is not secure yet:
Lakes state cattle keepers tell government to protect them or give them back their guns

M-A Lagrange
09-03-2010, 01:05 PM
First of all the ICG report on the North South border.
As usual, thrilling...

And now the ugly trues: Bashir and Washington do cooperate, especially the CIA. :rolleyes:
Shh, it's a secret. :D

Sudan’s spy agency acknowledges cooperation with CIA

The NISS and other Sudanese officials have long acknowledged relations with the CIA which started since the September 11 attacks in the United States or even before that. The former NISS chief Salah Gosh was ferried by the CIA to Washington in 2005 in a private plane for talks prompting fierce criticisms by Sudan advocacy groups.
U.S. media reports have revealed joint CIA-NISS work in the Horn of Africa and Iraq raising eyebrows even within the Islamist backed government.
In 2007 Gosh in an apparent bid to silence hard-line Islamist voices within the regime said that the cooperation with the CIA prevented a destructive backlash by the US against Sudan in the wake of the World Trade Centre attack in New York by Al-Qaeda.
The U.S. has defended its work with the NISS saying that it has not prevented it from being the most outspoken critic of human right violations in Sudan.

M-A Lagrange
09-06-2010, 08:55 AM
Is dam frustrating… Cause you see how everyone is making sure that things will not run smoothly.

Official: Southern Sudan Could Unilaterally Secede
"We have reached a point of no return," John Duku, Southern Sudan¹s former chief diplomat to East Africa, told CNN. "The independence of South Sudan cannot be stopped by anybody now."http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/4026/Default.aspx

Funny how announcing something on CNN can be taken as an official declaration.

Some may have wonder why I have taken time to include elements on agriculture and Nile River in those posts on South Sudan.
Remember, I posted few times ago that GoSS has chosen the line of POP CENTRIC COIN.
In the past month, GoSS has been dealing with several insurgencies and used the non kinetic strategy of containment of insurgent groups. To finally decide them will crush them. And finally not doing it because it has probably too many internal politic implications. So back to POP CENTRIC COIN and to the development phase to prepare the independence.
Now that this is done, here comes the problematic of sustaining government apparatus. SPLM has a hand on all the key administrations and is the only credible party here in South Sudan. So now, to be comforted in their legitimate role of ruling the land, they have to deliver services and create economical wealth.
And that’s were the Nile River and agriculture problematic comes in.

South Sudan Plans 11 Hydroelectric Plants
"We have located more than 10 potential sites for hydro power, most are along the Nile and its tributaries," Liabwel said. "Developing this power is essential to build up industry ... for irrigation, agriculture."http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/4011/Default.aspx

Will se what Egypt and North Sudan will say on this. But that is already one casus belli.

But now, let’s have a look on North and Egypt. Well agriculture there also is seen as an alternative.

Egypt to Grow 1m Feddans of Major Crops in Al Gezira Scheme
For his part, the advisor to the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Dr. Saad Nassar, said the Sudan should have priority with respect to any external Egyptian investments in the agricultural sector. "This is particularly true when we know that there are adequate guarantees for the success of such projects, such as services, electric power, trained labor and a capable banking and legal system," Dr. Nassar added.http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=60509

And here we have another potential casus belli.
Like South, Khartoum is trying to cope with the oil revenues decrease that will follow the separation. And if that does not work, well the temptation to enflame the border demarcation issue on oil field will come more and more attractive.

And finally this report that I cannot remember if I already did or not mentioned.

Even if insurgents are contained, well stable and secure environment is not yet granted.

M-A Lagrange
10-06-2010, 08:48 PM
Some are talking about the idea of an island some of the idea of a war… All this in the name of peace:

Presidential adviser says Sudanese must prepare for war when the south secedes
A senior Sudanese official today called on the country’s youth and students to prepare for war to defend the country against challenges facing the nation if the southern Sudan secedes, the pro-government Akhir Lahza newspaper reported on Thursday.
Also last weekend, the Sudanese information minister Kamal Obeid warned that Southerners living in the North will immediately lose citizenship rights if the South votes for independence.
"They will not enjoy citizenship rights, jobs or benefits, they will not be allowed to buy or sell in Khartoum market and they will not treated in hospitals," Obeid said in statements carried by public radio.
"We will not even give them a needle in the hospital," he added. http://www.tchadenligne.com/article-presidential-adviser-says-sudanese-must-prepare-for-war-when-the-south-secedes-58064443.html

Sudanese president pledges to protect southerners living in the north
Al-Bashir remarks brush aside threats by his information minister Kamal Obeid who threatened to expel southerners saying they will not enjoy citizenship rights, jobs and they would not be treated in hospitals.
It comes also two days after comments by his first deputy and head of southern Sudan government Salva Kiir Mayardrit declaring his support for separation. He also criticized his northern partners for not making unity attractive.
Kiir slammed remarks made by Obeid, He also expressed concern that southern Sudanese in the north need to be protected and repatriated back to Southern Sudan. "They are saying that nobody will buy the houses of southerners in the north," he said
Addressing a youth forum on Sunday in Khartoum, Bashir affirmed his direct responsibility for the protection of southerners in the north. He emphasized that any citizen from southern Sudan or his property or his rights will not be affected whatever the outcome of the referendum.
"Their security is a government priority and direct responsibility that we bear entirely," he added.
Last Friday Salva Kiir accused the North of "cheating" the South in the sharing of oil revenues during the interim period, explaining that it has been giving only 26% of oil revenues and not 50% as provided for in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Bashir said southern Sudan ruling party, which is cosignatory of the 2005 peace agreement, breached the CPA because of its calls for separation putting aside making unity attractive.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36479

SPLM slams calls for war by NCP official
Tension is building between north and south Sudan ahead of a referendum vote in which the latter is supposed to vote on whether to remain united with the north or secede to form an independent state.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36474

Nafie Refutes SPLM Allegation on Southern Citizenship in the North
He added, "We will preserve their rights in the north till adapting their situations."
He challenged the SPLM over its capability to preserve northerners' rights in the south.

War talks or talks on war are getting more and more loud those days in Sudan (north and South). The truth is that no one is actually trusting anyone.
Southerners are not even trusting South Sudanese living in North or South Sudanese living in neiboring countries.
The US did make an effort to determine the future border between North and South… To bad Khartoum did not agree. (May be neither did China?).

NCP Rejects US Proposal on Abyei Referendum
"We would expect that the parties should come to the meeting prepared to reach an agreement on Abyei," U.S. State Department spokesperson Phillip J. Crowley told reporters.
"We are very conscious of the fact that we have just about 100 days remaining (before the referendum), and Abyei is one of the central issues that has to be resolved before we can hope for a successful referendum early in 2011," he said.
The U.S. top diplomat urged Khartoum "to come to Addis Ababa on Sunday prepared to negotiate and to make sure that the negotiating team will have specific authority to reach agreement on Abyei," Crowley said.
The Obama administration’s special envoy for Sudan, Scott Gration, and Ambassador Princeton Lyman, a veteran U.S. diplomat recently drafted to help mediate the talks, will also participate in the Addis Ababa discussions, Crowley said.
A proposal put forward by the U.S. suggests that only Dinka Ngok will vote in the referendum as only those who resided continuously over the last year will be eligible to register. Furthermore, the oil produced in the region will be shared between the two sides.
The initiative also states that the Abyei referendum commission should be established no later than October 4th.http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=61234

Basically, for the moment, the US proposition to have only the Dinka voting and not the Messiriyya is being rejected. Which is not that much surprising as the Messiriyya are basically supporting North while Dinka supports South. And if Messiriyya vote their is a chance that the oil fields remain in the hands of Khartoum...

All this is done naturally in the name of peace and people interrest and not in the name of the oil…
What ever the result of this referendum is, we will face chaos.

M-A Lagrange
10-08-2010, 02:15 PM
U.S. special envoy meets Dinka and Misseriya delegations in Ethiopia
The U.S. sponsored talks appeared to have ran into major difficulties particularly on the issue of whether the Arab Misseriya tribe members should be allowed to take part in the referendum.
The NCP wants to ensure that the cattle-herding Misseriya tribe will have the right to vote in the referendum. The SPLM however, says that according to the 2008 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which redefined the Abyei borders, the Misseriya have no right to vote in areas assigned to the Dinka Ngok by the tribunal.
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) quoted informed sources as saying that the Dinka Ngok and the SPLM rejected a U.S. proposal stating that the Misseriya are to be given a portion of the oil produced in Abyei and be allowed to use pastures south of the January 1 1956 borders, in the event that the South Sudan referendum results in the creation of a new state.

Addis Ababa Meetings to Discuss Parties’ Responses to New US Ideas on Abyei The two native administration delegations have submitted written proposal separately to the mediator, Scott Gration who replied to them with a new vision that combines the two proposed visions. Gration's vision contents focused on the Abyei Protocol and the Hague's Court decision as a reference. The vision affirmed citizenship rights, division of local power and a development program to which the international community would be committed and the appropriation of part of local oil revenue for the development of the region.

The Messyria warned that all solutions for the Abyei issues as well as the forthcoming Abyei referendum may fail unless mutual agreement between the two parties is reached with the exclusion of political agenda. "All Messyria should participate in the referendum and cattle rearing rights should have priority over citizenship rights," they said.

On its part, the Dinka Ngok native administration delegation led by Kual Deng Majok insisted on refusing the participation of nomad Messyria in the referendum. At the same time, they affirmed the possibility of peaceful coexistence between the two tribes under a guarantee that will preserve the right of cattle rearing and movements for Messyria without this affecting borders or the unity or secession option.


My hamster grazing rights first as would say Wilf. This is a very good exemple of how sometimes it is difficult to understand the “invisible” causes of a conflict. In Abbeyi, in fine, if SPLM and Khartoum are fighting for access to oil and undermine the economical capacity of the other side… On the ground, people remain people and are fighting for their cattle rights!

South Sudan president pardons rebel army officers The President of the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), General Salva Kiir Mayardit, has issued an Executive Order, pardoning senior army officers who rebelled or fought against the SPLA forces before and after April’s elections.
The President of the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), General Salva Kiir Mayardit, has issued an Executive Order, pardoning senior army officers who rebelled or fought against the SPLA forces before and after April’s elections.

Peace talks in Jonglei’s Pibor county stall after ambush kills 3 people
“The attack was meant to destroy the peace talk between the government of South Sudan and Yauyau at Kurnyang”, he said.
According to the commissioner, peace talks between the Gen. Yauyau and the Government of Southern Sudan are currently in progress at Kurnyang to “iron out” some burning issues.
"The local authorities in Pibor County (Joglei state) have started peace talks with David Yauyau," said the official spokesperson of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Major General Kuol Diem Kuol at the time.
However, commisioner-Mazee told radio Jonglei on Tuesday that the latest incident cast doubt on the Pibor peace talks.
"I’m not sure whether Kurnyang will be peaceful for [peace] talks," he said in reference to the venue of negotiation with Yauyau men.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36505

Somehow, I feel like there is a bias in the new war and COIN strategy. 3 month ago, SPLA was saying: we will crush them in pieces. Now they are saying: I pardon you, let’s talk.
I know that Sun Tzu said that the best General is the ne winning without fighting, but he was talking about being deterent, not having peace talks to achive “victory”.
Scaping from confronting the opponent for immediat short term political most probable benefit, especially in a context as Sudan where the insurgency is limited, seems quite hasardious.

M-A Lagrange
10-11-2010, 03:50 PM
On the way!! Right close to the wall, but there’re still some chances to make a desperate U turn.

First of all, the discussions between Misseriya and Dinka:

Abyei’s Misseriya slam SPLM position over their voting rights, Ethiopia talks falter
"Any discussion between the two parties does not allow peaceful coexistence as priority because SPLM has never allowed it. SPLM leaders are not interested in any peaceful dialogue. They are always interested in division and demarcation of borders. They are the one who brought this division. They are the one who brought borders which have never been there, said Hassan denying having had borders with Dinka Ngok. We have never had borders with Dinka Ngok. They have never demanded drawing borders. We have never been divided because we have always been one and the same family. It is the SPLM which came with it and it is now the one working against peaceful coexistence between us and the Dinka Ngok. They have not given any chance to initiate dialogue on how to live together as brothers and sisters," Musa said. Musa, (is) a leader from one of the “Awelad umran” branch of the Misseriya tribe said they would not create instability but will use all means to ensure that they are able to vote in the referendum.

New Proposals to Overcome Abyei Disputes
The international mediators presented another two proposals to Abyei negotiating parties
The first proposal stipulates that Abye belongs to the south directly and to give the Messairiyya the right of pasture.

The other proposed dividing Abyei into two areas (one northerner and the second southerner).
Informed sources told (smc) that the NCP party rejected the first proposal, affirming that the negotiations are still continuing to discuss the second proposal.
The parties to the negotiations formed specialized committees to discuss all the issues related to the post referendum issues including Abyei.
Mediators expressed fears on the consequences of the referendum delay due to the SPLM inflexibility.
Speaker: Conformity on Abyei, Demarcation Crucial for Referendum
National Assembly Speaker, Ahmed Ibrahim El-Tahir affirmed that south Sudan referendum scheduled to be conducted on the 9th of next January necessitates conformity between the CPA partners on Abyei and demarcation issues.

He criticized the SPLM trend to limit Abyei referendum voting on Dinka Ngok, considering that as a violation to Abyei Protocol and the PCA ruling.
He added that Abyei is a geographical area and all its inhabitants are eligible for voting according to the Protocol.
All the trick with a good narrative is to have everybody on the same line, singing the same song. And Khartoum is pretty good at it. Also, in a very smart move, they did wait for SPLM to make the mistake to show its carts and Salvaa Kiir to state that the referendum was only meant to achieve sessession while it is written black on white that both parties will try to make union attractive.
Once again: a good narrative and weak political adversary and you end up in the legal camp of the good guys. Still doesn’t mean you are a good guy, but…

Then the idea of a fair vote and of its importance:

Bashir accuses Sudan’s SPLM of reneging on peace accord, warns of possible conflict
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) quoted Bashir as telling participants at an emergency Arab League summit in Libya that he regrets what he described as "reneging" by the ex-Southern rebel group on the obligation stipulated in the peace accord by declaring that it is working for the separation option.
The Saudi foreign minister Saud Al-Faisal echoed Bashir’s assertions on the importance for having a fair vote in the South.
“Sudan, a member of the Arab League, is facing the threat of division. No Arab League member can justify its neutral stand on the issue. We have to support Sudan to overcome these dangers,” Al-Faisal said.
Prince Saud opposed the division of Sudan, saying it would not serve the interests of any party. “In our opinion neither the interest of Sudan nor those of the rival parties can be achieved by the dangerous move of division,” he pointed out.
Well, If I remember not too badly, the Arab league is far from being the House of Democracy… But still a fair and transparent vote is requested for the others.
Once again, before you go to war, prepare the land by explaining how the adversary is not playing fair. You may gain some hearts and minds but that’s not the point. You make the public opinion, at least yours, forget how much you actually are what you are claiming the adversary is.
And finally you reject all reasonable solutions because the neutral power trying to make you turn away from the path of war is a bad guy who is actually trying to implement the law and not just use legal arguments as a narrative to justify war:

South Sudan President calls for deployment of UN troops at north-south border
"He [Kiir] set out quite a powerful case for why the referendum had to go ahead on time and the fact that he felt [the] referendum would end up [with] a vote for separation," Britain’s UNSC ambassador Mark Lyall Grant was quoted by Reuters, describing what Kiir had told envoys during a meeting in the southern capital Juba on Wednesday.
"He was not going to declare UDI (a unilateral declaration of independence). But if there is a delay, a politically induced delay by the NCP for the referendum, then it might be necessary for the south to hold their own referendum," he added.
Kiir who is also Sudan’s First Vice President of Sudan has in recent days stepped up his rhetoric saying that he will personally choose secession over unity, something the NCP says is a violation of the CPA which calls on both sides to make unity an attractive option.
Senior NCP official Rabie Abdulatti told Reuters Kiir’s words were unacceptable and said Khartoum would not accept the result of an independence vote organised by the south on its own.
"Nobody would recognize it. This is against CPA. Everything about its implementation should be agreed by the two partners."http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36526

Khartoum rejects deployment of UN troops on north-south Sudan border
Sudanese officials rejected the deployment of United Nations peacekeepers on the border between the northern and southern Sudan saying such request is unacceptable and contrary to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
On Sunday Ibrahim Ghandoor, the headof political secretary at the ruling National Congress Party echoed Karti’s position saying his party rejects any measure not included in the CPA.
"Sudan is still one country and it is very strange that a part of the state asks for international troops without the consent or agreement of the federal government," he said.

NCP Criticizes SPLM Call for UN Troops Deployment along North-south Border
NCP Political Secretary, Prof. Ibrahim Ghandour said that the request submitted by Salva Kiir Mayardit is strange and asked how come he calls for international troops while he is part of the government without any agreement with the GoNU.
He added that the UN might not respond to the call pointing out that there are UNMIS troops according to the CPA with limited mandate so the call doesn't coincide with the CPA and moreover Kiir did not consult the GoNU on the issue.
Ghandour considered the SPLM step in transforming 60 thousand SPLA intelligent elements to police forces to protect the referendum process as immature step.
He criticized the separatists’ penetration into the unity support procession in Khartoum considering it as a sabotage attempt which the security authorities dealt with wisely.
Look how the devil is in the details. First you start with a fact: Sudan is still one country. And then you end up with propaganda: 60 000 policemen are intelligence officers on the ground. To end up with a grave breach: this is sabotage attempt.
Some are dreaming of 60 000 intelligence officer on in the field to monitor a vote. And others of 60 000 saboteurs ready to act in just a clap.

Finally, on the COIN front:

SPLA rebel General Athor welcomes South Sudan president’s amnesty
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Saturday, Nyuon commended decision of the president and urged the officers to return.
“The decision taken by the president is an excellent [...] wise and unifying decision,” said Nyuon.
The BBC noted that the report coincided with the visit of the United Nations Security Council and that the move could be seen as a way to show visiting diplomats the south’s seriousness to provide security ahead of the January’s referendum on southern independence.
Athor is really good. He basically managed to win is rebellion (and not insurgency as he did not take power nor represented almost anyone) against the elections.
All this in burning the land and showing enough power to be taken as a real threat while SPLA have just been unable to simply fright him. Pure Sun Tzu strategy applied to a Clausewitz end: impose your views to the opponent in being deterent enough to not have to really fight. Is that really the future of war? :eek:

M-A Lagrange
10-15-2010, 03:16 PM
Cause for peace, everybody agrees: they are not!

UN to beef-up troop presence at "hotspots" on Sudan’s North-South borders
"We will increase our presence but only in some hotspots," UN peacekeeping chief Alain Le Roy told reporters after a UNSC meeting on Sudan.
U.S. ambassador at the Susan Rice said that UNSC members had been "skeptical" that a force along the entire border could be organized.
"Most council members are skeptical, to say the least, of the feasibility of a force that could line the entirety of the border," Rice told reporters. "Troops don’t exist, it couldn’t be constituted quickly enough."
"But there is serious discussion of alternative models that might focus on those areas along the border that are most vulnerable or at high risk of violence, and where civilians may be most at risk," she added.

Yesterday it was an idea, rejected by Khartoum.
UNSC may authorize limited buffer zones on Sudan’s North-South borders

Today it’s a small scale innactive force spread all over the border in hot spots… I love the concept of hot spots. It does fix your troops and makes sure tat if something happens you are just were you are not needed!
The idea of PMC is such case may look attractive but who to contract?
First you have to have an agreement of the host nation (Not that easy).
Then an agreement of the security council (even less easy)
And finally you have to recruite 2 or 3 full batallion... At private enerprise cost. Just not fundable.
And even if you manage to get all this: the rules of engagement and recruitement will be so complexe and stupid that you will end up with a force which would be even less effective than the UN. (And the UN force will be completely ineffective in terms of combat capacity, everybody knows it).

But the best is to come:

South Sudan will have its own army even if Sudan remains united – SPLM official
In an interview with the SPLA head of communications, Brig. Gen. Malaak Ayuen Ajok, on South Sudan TV minister Nyaba commended the CPA, which he said was different from previous peace agreements signed between north and south in the past because it retained the SPLA as a separate army.
“We would have our own army, our foreign minister, which is now the regional cooperation […] even in unity,”http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36593

One country, 2 populace and 2 armies… A new vision of the CvC trinity? Certainly not!
South is so eager to be independent that they just forget some small details like: finalising the border with North…

Sudan NCP calls for postponement of Abyei referendum
"It is very obvious that right now it is not possible to hold the referendum in Abyei on January 9. The two parties have agreed on this regard", said Al-Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed, a senior NCP member who is in charge of Abyei file on Thursday.
US Ambassador to the United Nations told the meeting that the Security Council delegation during its visit to Sudan last week held a meeting with civil society and religious officials. "The mission members had heard more concerns over meeting the tight timetable for the referendum, especially as regarded arrangements in the contended Abyei area, and more concerns that the north was "beating the drums of war", Ms. Rice said.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36599

Why only North? South is doing exactly the same!

But my favorit is that one:

Gen. Tanginye becomes latest southern figure to defect to SPLM

A senior army general previously incorporated into the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), has arrived in Juba for the first time since 2006 to announce that he is joining the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which controls the South of the country.
Gabriel Tangginya who has been accused of inciting violence against the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), announced his defection to the ex-Southern rebel group on Thursday after meetings with GoSS President Salva Kiir.
He also commended President Kiir for his declared amnesty to all the armed groups, assuring that all the other senior officers who have remained behind were in the process of reconciling themselves with the southern government.

The guy burned the place at least 2 times since 2006 and now is coming back because of the amnesty…
Can this really work?
Amnesty laws usually come after the peace has been achieve and the conflict ended, not defore the pick of the legal confrontation that may lead to war.
Yes peace is often made of bites and piece… But up to which point? Actually the question is not just rethorical. Once you have bought the peace spoiler what stopes them to do it again and again?
That’s why normally you pass amnesty laws after the resolution of a conflict, once you have reach the final political end. NOT to reach that end!

M-A Lagrange
10-18-2010, 08:49 PM
SPLA describes Joint Defense Board as unreasonable
The Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA) – south Sudan’s army - has described the Joint Defense Board (JDB) as a useless body, accusing Sudan Armed Forces of not following directives of the board made up of the 2005 peace partners

Ok, now the South is on the same line than North: no buffer zone, no controle, we want to be abble to go to war when we want!

Now, let’s look at the petrol issue. Cause referendum in South Sudan has little to see with peoples’will to be independent and much to see with sizing economical profits.

Also, it has a lot to see with the capacity of the US to size huge petrol ressources of South.
Just to understand the impact of the separation I will first come with the description of it by the North Sudan Minister of Finance:

Sudan’s finance minister paints grim picture of economy after the South separates"We will lose seventy per cent of our share in oil reserves, and fifty per cent of the share in oil revenues. We hope and pray to God that Sudan is not divided, but this is what will happen if [Sudan] breaks up," Abdel-Rasool said in an interview with the London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
"When Mr. President picked me to be the Minister of Finance, I conducted studies on exports and imports, and found that we import the equivalent of more than $9 billion each year; $1 billion for car [imports], and nearly $2 billion of wheat [imports], $100 million for [cooking] oil, and nearly $100 million for furniture, and the like for fruits, toys, and luxury items," the Sudanese finance minister said.
"In accordance with my new policy, it is imperative that we reduce these amounts through rationalization of import, imposing tariffs and taxes on luxury items. And actually, I issued orders stopping the imports of used cars because, in the long run, it will be a burden on the owners and the Sudanese economy," Abdel-Rasool added.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36634

But if this is a challenge for North, what about China whom import nearly 40% (if not more) of its oil imports from Sudan?

So South is working hard to get China on its side:

SPLM gives assurances on Chinese oil investments in South SudanAnne Itto, south Sudan’s minister of agriculture, and SPLM deputy secretary general told reporters after her return from China last August that the Chinese government fears that its assets in Sudan’s oil would be “a waste” if the south opts for secession.
"A lot of wild rumors have been getting to them, that if the south separates, there will be insecurity, and if there is insecurity, their assets worth billions of dollars in the form of pipelines and so on will have been a waste," she said.
Itto added that she had told Chinese officials that "if they want to protect their assets, the only way is to develop a very strong relationship with the government of Southern Sudan, respect the outcome of the referendum, and then we will be doing business."
Amum said they asked the visiting Chinese delegation to put pressure on the northern Sudan ruling National Congress Party to avoid the return of war after the referendum.
"We discussed with the delegation the role of China to support peace in Sudan, especially to prevail on the NCP not to take the country back to war again," he said.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36612

For the US, the separation of South means the possibility to actually put a grave econmical attack to China and diminish its power by directly influencing China petrol import capacity.
For South, the problematic is completely contrary. Us companies will not be in position to take over oil production. Which is a good thing for the US as a grand worldwide strategy: as long as South Sudan oil does not fall in anyones hands, it’s still a victory. But what South Sudan Government is looking for (and needs) is an immediat source of revenues.
Difficult to convince a partner that he will win by staying poor… In the end, it's difficult to see how peace would profite to Us if it goes with economical agreement between the new South Sudan government and China. Even for a power as the US, a war seems to be more profitable on the short run, just because it preserves South Sudan oil from being exploited by China.
Crazy isn't it?

10-22-2010, 08:59 PM
What do you think of this article, Southern Sudan - the Four Theses (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/584-talley.pdf), just posted on the SWJBlog feed ?

LTC Talley's conclusions:


The purpose of this paper is to address what I felt to be three critical elements missing from current discussions and analysis of the situation in Southern Sudan. To recap, they are:

1. A full appreciation of why the Government of Sudan has no choice but to fight – and, most disturbing, why they assess that they will win.‘

2. A sense that the Southern Sudanese appear to be misreading U.S. commitment for the process as a commitment to their cause.

3. The lack of strategic analysis guiding U.S. involvement; in particular, the lack of any effort to extrapolate the likely outcome of U.S. intervention, to analyze the costs associated with that intervention, and to assess the risks to our national interests.

My sense is that the U.S. has been led down a path leading to armed intervention by a values-based advocacy community whose primary motivation is to ensure the U.S. does something to stop bad things from happening. I am particularly troubled by how easily this advocacy community suggests that U.S. involvement in Southern Sudan can lead to a similar involvement in Darfur. The unspoken premise is that, with just a little effort and commitment from the U.S., everything will work out alright. As I have worked through the likely evolution of the official U.S. policy decision, I have come to the conclusion that this policy is prodding the U.S. into a war it is neither prepared for nor willing to fight.

The greatest danger is not that the U.S. military will lose on the battlefield, but that the U.S. will serve as midwife to a failed state – and, in so doing, cause irreparable harm to our real geo-strategic interests in Africa. I believe the President of the United States has reached a critical decision point. Before he chooses to continue with the current official policy, which I believe to have shown will lead to war and ruin, he should pause and the questions, ―is this really a good idea? and ―are there any other viable options?
As an ancient (very ancient) student in the "Never Again, but ..." School, my vote is negat. I see no reasonable "but" justifying US military intervention.

So, Marc, what are the "other viable options" ?



M-A Lagrange
10-23-2010, 09:07 AM
I do not seat in AFRICOM so... But i'll try to respond. May be in 2 parts. Need free time and I have few at the momment.

More and more, I perceive the situation as getting out of US hands control.
- South Sudan is trying hard to attract China,
- South Sudan "needs" a war to finalise its control over the various political/armed groups and armed ethnical groups in its territory,
- US interrests in Khartoum are not that low.

The article mentioned above is extremely interresting and several readings are necessary (at least for me) to get the full picture of what this article advocate for (or to whom it is written for).

I tried to introduce the problematic of the Arab League and Arab/Muslim countries interests in the complex politic of Sudan. (May be not my best contribution) and I believe that it's a point which is too often forgotten. Just as the question of the real commitment of Southern populations to GoSS (a nick name for SPLM).
Players like Egypt and other Middle East Arab countries (or Pakistan in some extend) do have contradictory interests in Sudan. And the idea or myth that North/South war is a slave liberation war from oppressed black African people against Arabs is not just confined to Sudan but goes far beyond its borders. You have to remember that Khartoum and the Nuer were the Egyptian slaves in the far past and Sudan has long been seen as a minor interlocutor by the Arab countries. It is not about Islamic ideology but rather about the creation of a Muslim pole in the 21st century balance of world power. A complex issue as USA do support most of the Arabs and Muslims countries regimes which (like Pakistan) are playing double game with them. Even in Sudan. So the possibility of a war in Sudan has also to be understood in the perspective of Arab countries willingness to diminish their dependency from the US. A sort of USA/Muslim powers "drole de guerre"/cold war. (PS: drole de guerre refers to the war without combat between France+UK and Germany in 1939).

On the other hand, there are important points which would support a US involvement into a North/South war.
First, USA is trying hard to build a pole of US influence in Sub-Saharan East Africa: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda... to name few. A war in South Sudan would affect directly Uganda and Ethiopia. South Sudan is the weak domino, to refer to a bigman from the 70th. So it seems natural for the US to support South if a war occurs.
Also, as I mentioned in a different threat, there is a "pattern" in the US state building support in Africa, or a "US touch". Uganda and Rwanda are the 2 governance/government models US are trying to advertise for in that part of Africa: strong pseudo democratic regimes based on limited plury political parties and enterely turned to economic development. And South Sudan regime is for now (at least) not different from this. Not supporting GoSS and SPLM if a war happens would affect the image of USA in East Africa among the people but also among the friendly states.

Last but not least, there are inside the US army also a lot of advocates for an unconditional support to SPLA. Some are long watchers and do have arguments based on strategic understanding of Africa. Some are more emotional: I fought a war with SPLA, I cannot let them down now. A little like the weird position of France on Yugoslavia and its unconditional support to Serbs in the early times.

Finally, and that is for me the most important question that I do repeat again and again: what are the benefits of US in a peaceful separation between South and North? US interests are not, far from it, the people; it's the oil! Nothing else. It's also the stability of the sub region (Somalia and Eritrea are not that far away).
Not supporting South in a war would definitively affect USA in achieving their strategic goals.

For all those reasons, I tend to see for the US an obligation to intervene. But LtCol Talley is asking some important questions and putting the finger where it hurts: are the US ready to go for another Asian war/Vietnam like war? (With or without direct troops involvement on the ground.)

Now, I will go to the "other options"... In a next post.


M-A Lagrange
10-23-2010, 01:00 PM
The question is simple but answering to it seems just impossible.
First of all it requires responding to the question: is a peaceful separation between South and North possible?

The answer is yes, naturally. Strong diplomatic pressing on Khartoum could do the trick. But this will not answer the question because it’s the future of North and South that are to be addressed.
One of the very well presented argument in LtCol Talley paper is the wrong believe in USA of the evil nature of Bashir regime.
Khartoum is a US ally in GWOT. It is also the rampart Egypt is supporting to stop Islamic opposition in its territory. And Egypt is an ally of USA.
So separation between North and South has to be smooth for North.
An idea that many southerners are not ready to support, especially in the Diaspora and among Human Rights activist; especially about Darfur. (George my friend… You should probably have staid home! Would have been easier for many of us!)
It’s also an idea that GoSS is not ready to support. After 50 years of struggle and 25 years in the bush for those in power… No way, they stay poor.
So the solution could be to overflow the place with aid. Is it feasible for the US treasure? Not so sure. And that’s exactly in that breach that Arab league countries have already put a foot.
Never the less, if US do not want Khartoum to go for war in order to distract its populace from political opposition, this will cost a lot of money.
But economical development will certainly not be sufficient to preserve Bashir regime. And that is where it becomes fuzzy. In the end, USA will certainly have to increase their military/security support to Khartoum. Not just for the sake of supporting a non democratic regime but also to prevent China to increase its grip on Sudan.
Cause all is about China vs USA.

So the first thing will be to drop the legal ban over Sudan to allow US companies to invest in all sectors in North Sudan, especially oil and security.
Then an in depth lobbying in Sudan will be necessary for US companies to invest in Sudan.
Arab league countries have already started to invest in agriculture. This is clearly one of the key alternative sectors. But the road is long to bring Sudan up to the needed standards. Recently, Khartoum failed to export livestock products to North Africa countries because of their low quality. Another alternative is to work indirectly with allies such as Egypt to strength North Sudan while USA are directly involved into supporting South.

Secondly, Darfur crisis has to be settled in a way that will affect neither Khartoum, neither Juba, neither N’djamena nor the various rebel groups. Let say a long and difficult challenge. Such settlement of the crisis will affect the US on the international stage because this will diminish the ICC credibility and reinforce the idea that Africa is a continent of impunity.
This seems dumb but this will weaken the actual US president and reinforce the impunity in other African countries. This will even reinforce the idea that China is the new perfect match for most of the African powers.

So promoting a smooth transition seems to be inaccessible. Not that it is not feasible but not really possible for too many reasons that are not in the hands of any external power. Especially western powers.

On the other hand, a war in South without US involvement in South will have extended consequences. The solution is that case could be the involvement of Uganda and other regional powers such as South Africa. Uganda is a long time SPLA friend and Salva Kiir is taking numerous contacts with South Africa.
And leave Darfur containment to the Chadian.

This looks like the most reasonable solution. But then it brings the question: how to not turn this in a new African first world war as DRC did in its time with troops of 7 countries involved in the conflict?

Anyone with a better understanding or option for the alternative solution is hightly welcome! :)

M-A Lagrange
10-25-2010, 08:28 PM
Khartoum not ready for war, adviser says
“The most irritating one was the statement which called on youth and students from higher learning institutions in the north to prepare for war in case the south secedes, by Mustafa Osman Ismail, a presidential advisor and Secretary General for external relations in the National Congress Party.”
The southern special advisor believes that the NCP are making the statements in an attempt to get the south to vote for unity rather than independence.
“These are just political propagandas. They are not prepared for any war at all because they know they will not fight [as] it [...] was in the past. What they are making these days is a simple oratory of intimidation to scar potential southern voters in the north to vote against their will in favor of unity,” said Nyuon.
“Can Khartoum really win a war involving four regions? Will they really win any war? They may have been lucky in the past to use marginalized groups and people by using disgruntled individuals from corners of Sudan to fight their wars. But this is not what the current situation tells.” said Nyuon.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36690

This article, or more precisely the statements from Mr Nyuon, is interesting because most of the observers in Sudan have difficulties to see how a new South/North war would not happen.
Nobody wants it but nobody is capable to find an alternative to a conflict. Mainly because it seems far too obvious that both parties are almost willing to get a war. And also because most of them do not see how the referendum will not generate such a chaos which would result into a war or at least a complete collapse of the States and a wild spread of insurgencies everywhere.
And that is may be were there is a chance. Flagging the specter of war seems the only argument for both North and South.
If North will certainly find difficult to fight another war while Darfur question is not solved; South will not have it easy neither. Both sides need a big brother to support them. And as South is turning more and more to China (which does not really cares about who is in power, as many have rightfully pointed), North is trying now to attract US.

Government Demands US to Lift SanctionsThe Foreign Minister, Ali Ahmed Karti said, in a press statement yesterday following his meeting with the Chairman of U.S. Senate Committee for Foreign Relations Senator John Kerry, that they hope his visit has added a new information to Kerry to help him in a serious discussion in the U.S. Congress with regard to the Sudanese-U.S. relations.
On the same context, The Presidential Advisor for the Security Affairs, Lieutenant Salah Gosh said that Kerry's visit is considered a continuation to the American efforts to implement the CPA and that the senator came to confirm the American pledges to lift sanctions against Sudan and lift it from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism after conducting the referendum indicating that he had informed the American official of the Sudanese people despair from the American promises to lift the said sanctions.http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=62260

Anyways, North is apparently preparing future:

Sudan to begin mass privatization next year: state media
During the cabinet meeting on Thursday headed by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, it was ordered that a list of government-owned companies to be created in preparation for their privatization. No further details were given.
The pro-government Al-Rayaam newspaper quoted the cabinet spokesperson as saying that the privatization scheme will impact all companies owned by the state.

And the burning question is: Is Bashir following the steps of Mugabe to install a “sustainable dictatorship”?
In a previous post (in an another threat), I did describe the concept of “sustainable dictatorship” (versus sustainable development). A concept developed with/by a friend based on Zimbabwe case.
The sustainable dictatorship is the response to nonworking sustainable development:
- Strong dictatorial regime with regular popular consultation
- Capitalistic economy controlled by the first circle of power based on a communist like practice of economical control by the state but for personal enrichment.
- Regime legitimacy propaganda based on an external enemy: the classic paranoid state ideology
- A shift from population control from security to economy: use economical policies and terror to break middle class and opposition economical roots. Once the bourgeoisie and the upper middle class has understood that privileges come with political silence…
- Integration in the “party” or circle of power of any opposition party that manages to gain sufficient popular support to be a threat for the system. This to better isolate and corrupt it.

Future will tale us… But looks like North is ready to take that path and is putting the first bricks to pave that road.

Otherwise, the preparations for the referendum are going on… As planned…

South Sudan referendum commission receives most of the voting material
The South Sudan referendum commission (SSRC) announced today that it has received 90% of the voting material required to conduct the self-determination vote early next year.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36717

M-A Lagrange
10-28-2010, 01:44 PM
Former U.S. special envoy says Turabi’s loyalists seeking to undermine referendum
The Georgetown University professor described the North-based government as "weak" with crumbling control over the Africa’s largest country.
"They are losing control of Darfur and South, people in the East from the Beja [tribe] are getting very upset.... They cancelled some very important agricultural and irrigation projects in Gezira [state]" he said.
Natsios noted controversial statements made by the former finance minister Abdel-Rahim Hamdi five years ago in which he called on the NCP to undertake massive development projects within a very limited area of the North in order to build a reliable electoral base while ignoring other parts of the country.
He also suggested that the NCP has little confidence in the loyalty of the army particularly after the attack by the Darfuri Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) on the capital in May 2008 for their belief that it is heavily infiltrated by supporters of Turabi who now heads the Popular Congress Party (PCP).
"They [the army] did not intervene [to stop the JEM attack] which I find stunning considering how close they got to overthrowing the government. Fifty percent of the army leadership was handpicked by Turabi," Natsios said. He further added that intelligence bureaus in the region believe Turabi will make another attempt to overthrow the government.

That gentleman knows what he is talking about, that is for sure. And what he describes from North government is not really encouraging.
Basically, what he is pointing is that if South may collapse due to ethnical tensions, North is not in a better shape.

Talking about Sudan’s future:

Sudan peace partners postpone Addis Ababa meeting on Abyei referendum
Speaking Monday at a meeting of the UN Security Council, Sudanese ambassador at the international body warned that conducting the referendum without an agreement with the NCP and the formation of the commission means return to war.
"It is evident that any attempt to conduct the plebiscite before achieving an acceptable settlement between the two parties will mean only a return to war," said Daffa-Allah Elhaj Ali Osman.
The Sudanese presidency on the other hand postponed a meeting scheduled on Monday evening between president Bashir and vice-presidents Kiir and Ali Osman.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36723

The meeting is indefinitively postpound… A nice way to not say we failed.

While in South…

Kiir Reiterates Commitment to Work with All Political Parties
“I assure you my full support and commitment to achieve the common goals and objectives for the welfare of our people. I will work hard with the leaders of all Southern Sudanese Political Parties to implement the consensus position that we have agreed upon”, said the President.
The President made this statement shortly after reading his closing remarks in the South-South dialogue in Nyakuron Cultural Center Juba where a total political parties met to discuss the political future of the region.

But particpants are not that convinced:

USAP says recent South-South dialogue a waste of time
Ukel said the recent concluded dialogue is not news and added that there is lack of implementation of resolutions drawn by all the parties in all conferences held by the SPLM.
He criticized the continuous call for conferences as a waste of time if resolutions are never implemented. “That is why so many of us consider the holding of conferences with the SPLM and the National Congress Party-NCP a futile exercises”, said Ukel.
That; “up to now the SPLM has sought for conferences and consultations but has chosen to implement the resolutions of those conferences unilaterally”. http://jubapost.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=932:usap-says-recent-south-south-dialogue-a-waste-of-time&catid=34:politics&Itemid=56

M-A Lagrange
11-02-2010, 11:56 AM
During the week end, the SPLA and the SAF clashed. They exchanged fire and are accusing each other to have started the mambo jambo…

North, South Sudan armies trade accusations over fresh clashes in border areaThe two parties agreed that their troops clashed in the morning of Saturday but the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) says that Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) soldiers penetrated inside Upper Nile state and the latter says SPLA troops attacked them inside Sennar state.
Southern Sudan army spokesperson Kuol Diem Kuol, said Sunday that troops from northern Sudan army ambushed SPLA soldiers and returned back to their positions.
"They clashed with about 10 of our soldiers and wounded one officer and then they ran back to their base," said Kuol.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36793

Another link, (in French, sorry couldn’t get one in English, but I’ll do my best to translate)

Nord et Sud s'accusent d'un accrochage armé à la frontière

Les forces de l'Armée populaire de libération du Soudan (SPLA, sudiste) ont "attaqué samedi nos positions dans le secteur de Zemmali, situé à cinq kilomètres du côté nord de la frontière de 1956, dans l'Etat de Sennar", a déclaré tard lundi soir le porte-parole de l'armée soudanaise (nordiste), Sawarmi Khaled Saad, à l'agence officielle Suna.
"L'attaque a duré une heure et nos forces armées ont été en mesure de repousser les assaillants du SPLA du côté sud de la frontière de 1956", date de l'indépendance du Soudan par rapport aux autorités égypto-britanniques, a-t-il ajouté.http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iS5K9woj7r5ymxu33IUNDX5UVAUQ?docId=CNG.cad2b ed018f043b94cd620555062019b.7f1

North and South accuse each other about a skirmish on the border

The SPLA “attacked our position on Saturday in the area of Zemmali, 5 kilometers north from 1956, in Sennar State” declared Monday evening the SAF speaker, Sawarmi Khaled Saad to SUNA, the official press agency.

“The attack stand for 1 hour and our forces have been able to push back SPLA assailants south of 1956 border”, Sudan independence date according to British Egyptian authorities, he added.
As an immediate result?

Obama renews Sudan sanctions
Tommy Vietor, the White House spokesman, said the US hoped Sudan's leaders "will make the urgent and difficult choices necessary to secure peace for the Sudanese people".
"As we work to support these choices, the United States will review the Sudanese government's progress on resolving outstanding [peace agreement] implementation issues as well as other relevant circumstances, to include improving security and humanitarian access in Darfur," he said.
"If the government of Sudan acts to improve the situation on the ground and advance peace, we stand ready to work with Sudan to ensure its rightful place in the international community."
Obama last week stressed the need to go ahead with the vote as scheduled

This is the first grave breach in the CPA since Abeyi. Are they just tasting water or are we already in the crazy war spiral?
Time will tell. But one thing is sure, the dance has started and there is blood on the dance floor.

M-A Lagrange
11-10-2010, 08:56 AM
While GoSS is wondering if they will or not delay the referendum, Athor finally won his insurgency:

Forces of rebel-general, George Athor rejoins southern army – SPLA
November 9, 2010 (JUBA) – The forces loyal to the former Deputy Chief of General Staff of south Sudan’s army - the Sudan People’s Liberation Army - have begun the process of rejoining the SPLA five months after their rebellion began.
Athor did not attend a recent conference of southern Sudan’s political groups, instead sending three of his officials to represent him.
However, in statement to the media on Monday, the Governor of Jonglei state, Kuol Manyang Juuk, confirmed that forces of Gen. Athor had now begun to rejoin the SPLA forces in Jonglei state.
Juuk who was Athor’s rival during the elections, said the forces were moving to rejoin SPLA Division Eight in charge of Jonglei state, which is currently under the command of Major General Peter Bol Kong.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36874

Victory has a price but is always political solution the less costly one?

M-A Lagrange
11-15-2010, 03:40 PM
Head of Sudan referendum commission accuse donors of withholding cash
Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) Chairperson Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil shows a sample voting card during a news conference at the SSRC headquarters in Khartoum, November 14, 2010 (Reuters)
"They give us finished goods, materials just as you cater for a minor. You don’t give a minor cash in case they should misuse it but give them finished goods and services which, incidentally, we resent," Khalil was quoted as saying by Reuters.
"The party which has not availed us of any usable money so far is the international donors," he added.
Khalil also blasted hiring foreign contractors and experts which in one situation complicated the process rather than facilitate it without seeing if there were competent Sudanese to do the same job. He said they had appointed a U.S. law firm which made incomprehensible regulations based on the referendum law. The commission finally had to find a Sudanese firm to do the job.
"This is an utter waste of money," he said, adding the commission had been delayed by six weeks in moving into its offices because of the delay in funds from the donors.
Viewing how North and South did handel last electoral process, I would just make no comments… It says already a lot!

I would recommend to read this:

How U.S. Government Policy Could Push the Country Back Into Civil War.
"The United States must make a credible threat that it will employ retaliatory actions against those who ignite renewed war, perhaps even using missiles to take out strategic targets."
12 November 2010
Former Sudan Envoyhttp://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ID/4351/Default.aspx
I will also not comment it as it is internal US politic but this shows how important it is for an external powerto have his house in order when it comes to support a foreign country military process.

And finally the big news:
North did bomb sites in Northern Bar El Ghazal! But north to the 1956 border, so technically nothing happened in South Sudan.
The only trick is that no body was prepared for this and it is complicating a little more the relations between North and South as yet Khartoum accuses South to support JEM. In Northern Bar El Ghazal actually…

Khartoum’s army bomb South Sudan, targeting Darfur rebels
Colonel Philip Aguer Panyang, official spokesperson for Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army, on Saturday told Sudan Tribune from the regional capital of Juba that two military aircrafts belonging to the Khartoum-controlled SAF dropped bombs on southern territory in the state of Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
"I am told by our forces on the ground in Northern Bahr el Ghazal that the air attack occurred on Friday. No death causalities have been reported but there are reports that 8 civilians have sustained serious injuries. Some of these victims with light injuries are being nursed in the local clinic in Gok Machar but those with inflicted shrapnel injuries and are at critical conditions have been moved to Aweil civil hospital," explained Panyang.
"We contacted central command of the Sudan Armed Forces yesterday night seeking explanation of why they bombarded our territory. The explanation they gave us in response was that they were pursuing rebel forces. They said it was not their intention to bomb our areas. They were only following routes of the Darfur rebels," explained Panyang.
Sudan Armed Forces spokesperson Al-Sawarmi Khaled, accused the southern Sudan ruling party of supporting JEM saying the southern army (SPLA) evacuated wounded rebels to Juba and to Uganda.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36929

SPLM Provides JEM leaders with Training and Medical Treatment
SMC follow-up revealed that the SPLM continued providing support to JEM aiming at creating a buffer zone all over the bordering lines of Bahr El-Ghazal State and causing tensions in that area.

Several meetings were held between a number of JEM and SPLM leaders in the framework of supporting the strategic trends between the two parties to expand the zone of war in Darfur.
Eye witnesses said that the SPLA leaders supervised the evacuation of JEM injured elements after Al-Majrour battle, adding that there contacts between Sulieman Sandal of JEM and SPLM to provide the necessary vehicles to evacuate 46 injured JEM elements from southern Buram area.
Sources affirmed that there is coordination between the SPLM and JEM through which the former provides support to the latter to continue its rebellion against the government.
Informed sources pointed out that the SPLM is conducting consultations to support JEM with (120) military vehicles besides opening several training camps and supporting the movement in recruiting more rebels to bridge the gap in its elements.
The SPLM also promised to expand the support to JEM to continue its war from south Sudan after it is expelled from Chad.

It’s incredible how borders can be important! Cause SPLA is saying it happened on our soil while technically it happened north to the 1956 border recognised as the CPA border.
Anyways, all eyes were on the oil fields while the war may start on Darfur border.

M-A Lagrange
11-19-2010, 03:14 PM
Few days ago, the UN secretary general was alarmed by drums of war beats…

Apparently he was not heard in South Sudan:

South Sudan president says Abyei belongs to Dinka Ngok
Addressing the closing session of a two day conference on the ‘urgent popular demand for implementation of the Abyei referendum’ in the south’s capital Juba Salva Kiir said that "Abyei belongs to the Ngok Dinka". He further said the SPLM would not ink an agreement on outstanding issues related to Sudan’s assets, water or oil without concluding a deal on Abyei with the National Congress Party (NCP).
The former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Chairman of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that the President Omer Al-Bashir and his first deputy will meet during next week of 22 November to discuss Abyei referendum.
Mebeki further stressed that both parties have agreed to "do everything possible to reach an agreement on this issue as a matter of urgency".
Regarding the future of the cattle herder nomads in the area, Kiir said that South Sudan would be able to provide services to members of the Misseriya tribe in Abyei but would not give them the right to own the land.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36971

We are ready to defend Abyei if attacked says Kiir
- President Salva Kiir has warned National Congress Party not turn Abyei into another Kashmir, and “if they do we are ready for it”. Addressing the opening of the Abyei Ngok Dinka consultative conference at Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly in Juba, the president said “people are telling me that we cannot return to war because of Abyei.
My position is Abyei will not be left behind”. He added, “we have been lying to the people of Abyei until the lies became useless, we cannot give a piece of land to Misseriya. Nothing kills a man beside the land this is our position, don’t think that the NCP is powerful that they can take the land by force. If they attack us we have the right to self defence”.
“Let me assure that SPLM will take the lead on resolving the Abyei issue. We abhor violence. The youth should not take the law into their hands”. Said the President. He said that the people of Abyei are not registering together with south Sudan because the NCP has delayed formation of the Abyei Referendum Commission. “We failed to establish the commission.http://jubapost.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1112:we-are-ready-to-defend-abyei-if-attacked-says-kiir&catid=37:latest-news&Itemid=67

Once again, SPLM is playing the ethnical line (So does Khartoum) while the issue is elsewhere:

Standoff over Abyei dominates consultative discussions between peace partners
The senior official of the south’s ruling party says their partner in the CPA is attempting many bargaining tactics to get the best deal it can for before the likely breakup of the country.
"Officials from the National Congress Party are trying their best. They are knocking all doors in attempt to bargain with interest that we split the national debts, share oil resources as stipulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement even if the south secedes," he explained.
Under the CPA the north and south split revenues from the south’s oil fields were split 50-50.
He also accused the NCP of attempting to draw the north-south border so that more of Sudan’s oil is north of the as yet un-demarcated border.
"They are also trying to ensure that north-south borders are drawn in their favor so that it brings more oil into the north and continue removing oil in the north from reservoirs that run into the south," he explained.
The former senior member of the NCP, who defected to the SPLM in 2007, says all eyes of his former party are fixed on Abyei because of its oil.
“The cause of all stalemates is Abyei. The NCP sees Abyei as nothing but wealth. This is why they have not been able to reach [a] compromise with our team involved in discussions over the issue of this region because they know Abyei is their last pocket. They are fearing economical collapse,” said Mathok.

November 22... Might be the first official day of peace... or war...

Colin Robinson
11-20-2010, 08:02 AM
Prospects don't look good...

M-A Lagrange
11-22-2010, 08:45 AM
In Jonglei this came true. Authorities are asking the people to pay to get registered. They say it’s to be able to pay security forces while waiting for funds to come from the National Referendum commission… I like this idea: first you fight for freedom then you have to buy it once you’re free.
Freedom cost recovery… A new concept for peace building. :rolleyes:

Jonglei referendum committee to extend dates at late starting centers“People are deceived that you have to pay 5 Sudanese Pounds (SDG) to register. This is not true,” Boloc said, blaming unspecified "people outside" for the false information”.
Jonglei state assembly passed a ‘Referendum Bill, 2010’ in September asked all citizens to pay a voluntary contribution to help the referendum process.
The bill asked for a non-compulsory 5 SDG from each household although this varied depending on income. It appears that failure to communicate that voluntary nature of the fee has led to some people in Jonglei believing the payment is a requirement when registering.

Just to make it clear to everybody: it’s non-compulsory but mandatory to pay… I wonder why nobody came before with this idea of freedom fighting cost recovery by the population. May be cause that’s not a good idea. Who knows?

Otherwise… The propaganda campaign on who is threatening who has started:

Référendum au Soudan: les ex-rebelles et Khartoum s'accusent d'intimidation
Des responsables du Mouvement populaire de libération du Soudan (SPLM, ex-rebelles sudistes) ont visité samedi des centres d'inscription dans la banlieue de la capitale Khartoum.
A proximité, des "comités de citoyens", "bras" du Parti du congrès national (NCP) au pouvoir à Khartoum, recueillent les numéros de téléphone de Sudistes après leur inscription sur les listes, selon ces responsables.
"Le SPLM encourage les Sudistes au Nord à ne pas s'enregistrer parce qu'ils pensent que la plupart des Sudistes vivant au Nord sont favorables à l'unité. Et comme vous le savez, le SPLM est maintenant en faveur de la séparation", a pour sa part dit à l'AFP Mandour al-Mahdi, haut responsable du parti au pouvoir (NCP).http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g_Uto2g1iiUGtMnEjUgbSAZJSLKw?docId=CNG.4998b f4c2e1c57a8e3ef3f02f17de743.ef1

I translate :
Khartoum and Southern ex-rebels accuse each others of threatening the population:
Representatives of the SPLM visited referendum registration centers on Saturday in Khartoum suburb. Next to the centers, “citizen committees”, the civilian arm of the NCP are collecting Southerners’ phone numbers after they register, according to SPLM representatives.
The SPLM is encouraging Southeners to boycott registration as they think that most of the Southeners living in North are pro Unity. And as you know, SPLM is in favor to separation… Said andour al-Madhi, a high representative from NCP.
Well, SPLM accuse NCP to bully the people to vote for unity and NCP accuses SPLM to tell the people to not vote…

NCP Officially Protests to Referendum Commission Registration Obstructions
Complaint was handed-over by the NCP Deputy Chairman for Political and Organizational Affairs Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie together with NCP Chief in Khartoum State, Dr. Abdel Rahman Al Khidir.
"The commission has barred registration of some southerners for no logical reasons," said Al Khidir considering the move a violation of Article (25) of the Referendum Act. He added that the guides are under age and disqualified for the job.
"Due to these violations, the government has fixed new centers in each of Alkalakla and Shigla residential quarters. But those centers were dismantled by some parties who threatened to kill the NCP elements, "reported the governor.
According to him registration in the first day amounted to 1066 voters, 657, 800, and 566 in the following three days.
Addressing a press conference held last Saturday at the SMC premises, NCP Khartoum Deputy Chief, Dr. Mandour Almahdi reported apparent registration violations committed by the SPLM. He added that the movement was intimidating operators who had been persuading southerners to approach the centers.
It is worth noting that the NCP threatens not to recognize the referendum outcome should the referendum national commission fail to put right registration violations.
The memorandum raised by the Highest Council of Peace and Unity consists of violations under the following articles of the 2010- Law of Referendum in Sudan:
1. Article No. (22)
2. Article No. (23)
3. Article No. (25)
4. Article No. (26).
5. Article No. (27)
6. Article No. (49).
7. Article No. (51).
8. Article No. (51).
9. Article No. (54).
Here are some of the violations committed by commission's workers:
First: the ages of some of the workers are less than 40 years and this contradicts conditions of the appointment of the workers of the commission.
Second: refusal of registering southerners who have a northerner parents; this is a violation according to Article No. 25.
Third: (A) Observers in registration centers don't represent all southern tribes and the commission asks each person who wants to register to bring his/her Sultan with him/he the thing makes registration impossible.
(B) Refusal of housing certificate issued by the local authorities in addition to the refusal of military cards.
Fourth: Delay of the procedures of registration as the members of the commission arrive late and leave before the accredited time the thing wastes times.
Fifth: the members in the registration centers are at variance with intentionally so as to delay the process and such practice is a violation according to article No. 54.

Juba authorities accused of arresting unity campaigner
Zuhair Hamid Suleiman is the deputy secretary of the NCP Youth committee and chairman of the youth subcommittee at the higher committee for the support of unity established by President Omer Al-Bashir on 7 November.
He was arrested Saturday at Juba airport and taken to unknown destination, said Abdel Mutti Mohamed Kheir, an official at the NCP Youth Secretariat, today in a statement released in Khartoum. He further said that Zuhair is supervising the NCP campaign in the greater Upper Nil states.http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article37001

M-A Lagrange
11-25-2010, 07:30 AM
Apparently, SAF bombed South once again…

North warplanes raid South Sudan, SPLA says
Four Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLA) soldiers and two civilians were critically injured when three helicopter gunships allegedly bombed an army base at Kiir Adem, an area located 45 miles away from Aweil North County, Northern Bahr el Ghazal state of Southern Sudan.
Kuol Athuai Hal, Aweil North Commissioner told Sudan Tribune by phone that Wednesday’s strike, which occurred at about mid-day, involved two jet fighter planes and anti-aircraft allegedly belonging to north-based Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
"The two military aircrafts of the Sudan Armed Forces bombarded us again today in rotational shift. They were rotating bombardments. When one was bombing another was flying about in the sky waiting the other one to finish. They started at 10: am till 12: pm,” commissioner Hal told Sudan Tribune.
"There is a weakness on the side of our forces here. Why allowing the armed forces to bomb them twice. Why allowed them to kill our innocent civilian. What is the mandate of the SPLA if they cannot protect civilians,” asked Lual in a war like tone

On the referendum registration side, it’s not going that well. Between 34 and 40% of the population in South did register up to now. Bt what is interesting is what is happening abroad.
It’s hard to say that Kampala is a NCP bastion… It rather seems that countries around are not that ready to have an independent South Sudan as neighbour:

Referendum Commission Investigates Threats to South Sudan Refugees in Uganda
The National Commission for South Sudan Referendum has reported that its committee in Uganda is investigating claims of phone- threats against south Sudan refugees there to prevent their registration for the referendum.

Commission spokesman, George Maker told Sudan Vision that they received clear information regarding the party that practiced such threats and their committee was investigating the cases.

Death threats target Southern Sudanese in Uganda so as not register
Staff from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) running the registration have also received menacing calls and letters.
"There have been death threats by telephone, in letters, banging on doors in the middle of the night," a diplomatic source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The source said the threats were targeting potential voters and staff working for the IOM. The Geneva-based migration organization declined to comment.
There has been conflicting reports last week that emerged saying that the SPLM asked Southerners in Uganda to boycott the registration but the ex-rebel movement denied making such a call.

And finally, an interesting exercise: how much would cost a war between North and South and can parties afford it?

Sudan: cost of a future war could be over $100bn
25 November 2010 - The Aegis Trust today released our new report on the future economic cost of war in Sudan. It finds the potential costs, conservatively estimated, could be over $100bn. In particular, costs could include:
• US$50billion to Sudan itself in lost GDP;
• US$25billion of GDP relative to a more stable situation in neighbouring countries; and
• US$30 billion in peacekeeping and humanitarian costs to the international community.

M-A Lagrange
11-30-2010, 08:53 AM
From the Northern Bar El Ghazal front…

Over 2,500 civilians flee aerial attacks in Sudan’s Northern Bahr el Ghazal
November 28, 2010 (ABYEI) – Locals and officials from Northern Bahr el Ghazal on Sunday reported that 2,500 civilians have fled areas at the north –south borders fearing aerial attack on the area by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
"The previous bombardments which seriously violated the [Comprehensive Peace Agreement] CPA and referendum law, led to the displacement of 2,500 people in the area. This displacement at a time of voter registration has prompted the state high executive committee for referendum to relocate registration center formerly located at Kiir Adem to Malek Miir," said Kuot.
Kuol Athuai Hal, commissioner of the area in a separate telephone interview with Sudan Tribune from Gokmachar, the administrative headquarters of Aweil North County, also confirmed occurrence of the displacement, saying recent attacks have encouraged people to leave.
"People are moving toward middle and low land areas now. Everything is being moved. Children and elderly people are being sent out. They are leaving their original homes because they fear other attacks," Athuai said.
Colonel Deng Thiep Akok, former member of south Sudan legislative Assembly in Juba also said that they have received reports from relatives and authorities in the area on similar displacements.
"The information I have from communications and daily contacts with relatives and local authorities indicate that a lot of people started moving out of their homes at the extreme north of the area. This started on Thursday after the area was attacked again," said Akok.

SPLM backs south Sudan’s president against reprisal attack
"We know advantage and disadvantage of war. This is why we appear reluctant because we put interest of our people as first priority because we know the 9th of January about few weeks away. So we must all put collective efforts to seeing this day becomes and answer to what our people need. Therefore, he said, we must try to avoid anything that would trigger return to war because it is obvious that national congress party and those who would wish the south to constantly remain in the northern bondage wants a retaliatory attack to light the flames of another prolonged war", Makueng said.
However, Awach Anei Wal, an intellectual from Northern Bahr el Ghazal blamed the south Sudan government for not releasing a statement on the incident.
"The fact that government of south [Sudan] did not release a statement or anything official condemning this incident is quite alarming. It seems that the leadership does not even care about its people, the people of Mading Aweil," Wal said.

What is quite interesting in addition to this military show of force is the new press offensive by Khartoum against Juba:

Sudanese official accuse Juba of planning to topple Khartoum government
November 27, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — A Sudanese presidential adviser accused on Thursday the southern Sudan ruling Party, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of planning to topple the government of President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.
Abdallah Massar, told a meeting with local political leaderships held in Nyala, capital of South Darfur state that the SPLM plans to undertake a military action aiming to topple the Islamic regime in Khartoum.
According to the official SUNA, the Presidential adviser who leads a splinter faction of Party Umma said this hostile operation would start next March and with attacks from southern Blue Nile, Abyei and Nuba Mountains in southern Kordofan.http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-official-accuse-Juba-of.html

Sudan’s NCP says it is prepared for ’Plan B’ against the SouthAccording to a report published on Thursday by the pro-government daily Akhir-Lahza, Gosh was addressing a public rally at Karima town in the Northern state when he accused the SPLM of refusing to sign agreements relating to post-referendum arrangements under the influence of the U.S.
The presidential adviser also claimed that the U.S. had asked the SPLM not to cede the central contested area of Abyei, saying that the Washington has “hijacked” the ex-Southern rebel group.
Gosh said that the NCP was ready for its own “plan B” should the SPLM violate the CPA cautioning that the “battle smoke would cover the south and not the north.”
Salah Gosh even made an apathetic statement about south Sudan secession, saying that separation would not be evil and if it did happen, “we would turn to building the south and in that case, God will have removed the burden of developing and creating infrastructure in the south.”http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-NCP-says-it-is-prepared.html

I do not know what was the plan A (probably the CPA) but the SPLM plan B to take over Khartoum is long gone with Garang’s death. The ones who do need an ennemy to stay in power today seems to be the NCP.
Out of the pure need of dictatorial regimes to have ennemies, those declarations come also in a tense political context in Egypt where the Islamist opposition has lost the elections. The Muslim Brotherhood is not only opposition in Egypt but also in Sudan. The heat Cairo is taking with Muslim Brotherhood will affect Khartoum sooner or later. Deturn attention on SPLM might be the solution Khartoum found for the momment.

M-A Lagrange
12-02-2010, 09:48 AM
North Bahr el-Ghazal governor denies presence of Darfur rebels
"There are no Darfur rebels that I know operating in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal. I have never seen them. Who said they are in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal should have told you where they are operating, said Governor Awan who was speaking to Sudan Tribune from Aweil town, capital of Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
The governor added that calm returned to the area. "The area is calm. The general security situation in the state is relatively calm. The issue which created panic and fear along the far north border areas of the state in Aweil North County was the recent aerial attacks there but security there has returned to normal," said governor Awan.http://www.sudantribune.com/North-Bahr-el-Ghazal-governor.html

South Sudan minister invites Khartoum to prove region is supporting Darfur rebels
“It time for our brothers in the north to come clean on some of these waves of allegations. Anyone who still thinks Darfur rebels leaders are hiding in the south should come and identify them. Infact, I will be more than willing to accompany them in arresting them in this process,” said Marial, who was flanked by Mustapha Biong, the Ministry’s Director General for Information.
“They are people in the north who do not want referendum to be conducted. They appear to have forgotten that the right to self determination for the people south Sudan was discussed and agreed by the two parties in the Naivasha,” said Minister Marial.
He said leadership of the two parties pledged commitment to implement the agreement at the time of singing in the presence of international community.
"The two parties pledged their commitment to fully implement the agreement in good faith and to the spirit of which it was negotiated but I do not understand why the Sudan Armed Forces launched offensive attack to drive our people out of their homes during registration. Why sabotaged voter registration?" asked minister Marial.
He said failure of Khartoum government to make unity an attractive option to the south Sudanese during the last six year of interim period shows that Northern Sudan is not interested in united Sudan.
“There is nothing that shows the north is interested in united Sudan," he said.
"They have not made unity option an attractive choice during the last six year of interim period instead they made secession more attractive option to the south Sudan people they have failed to convince them," Marial explained.http://www.sudantribune.com/South-Sudan-minister-invites.html

What ever you or I think (I have no opinion, that’s not my country), he is right about making unity attractive. Just have a look at what North official says:

South Sudan’s secession will rid the country from 3 "lousy neighbors": official
The Amman-based Al-Arab Al-Youm newspaper cited the Sudanese ambassador in Jordan Mohamed Osman Saeed as saying that Southern Sudanese want unity but said that certain parties are applying pressure so that separation is the outcome.
However, the Sudanese diplomat said that in the event of secession the North "will gain a good neighbor and will be relieved from three lousy neighbors".
He did not name the three countries but after the country’s breakup North Sudan will have no borders with Uganda, Kenya or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
With diplomats like this, you don’t even need wikyleaks…:cool:

M-A Lagrange
12-03-2010, 07:54 AM
For a free, fair and transparent democratic consultation for administrations’ staffs follow the SOP:

Jonglei to fire unregistered officials

The Governor of Jonglei State, Kuol Manyang Juuk has said that his government will dismiss officials who refuse to register for the ongoing registration exercise for the forthcoming South Sudan Referendum scheduled for January 9. The move by the Governor is to encourage more people to list for the expected vote for independence in a referendum next year.
"Official who is not registered for the referendum should be terminated including those who will not vote on January 9th", Kuol Manyang Juuk has said.

More seriously, the things keep on going not good:

SPLA say that 12 soldiers killed by northern militia in Unity state

SPLA spokesperson Philip Aguer told Reuters that the attack occurred 25 kilometers north of Unity state’s capital Bentiu.
He claimed that 12 people had been killed in the ambush including 10 “10 SPLA soldiers and two civilians."
"They are definitely militia backed from Khartoum," he said. "It was a very coordinated attack."
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) controlled by Sudan’s Khartoum-based National Congress Party (NCP) has denied the attack took place.
"This is completely untrue — it’s not possible we have anyone in Unity state," SAF spokesman al-Sawarmi Khaled told Reuters.
The north-south U.N. peacekeeping mission (UNMIS) confirmed the attack to Reuters but could not identify the aggressors.
"We are aware of that an SPLA truck with soldiers and their families was ambushed by an unknown group yesterday ... in Unity state," said UNMIS spokesman Kouider Zerrouk.

Truth is, at this stage, it could be anyone. Do not forget that South Sudan is like the wild wild west (without James West And Artemus Gordon unfortunately), bandits are everywhere and sometime much better equiped than SPLA.
Wait and see…

M-A Lagrange
12-06-2010, 09:27 AM
Here are some news from North Sudan and the problematic of Islamist opposition. Some may have felt that my point linking the events in Egypt and the referendum in Sudan a little hard to get, but thanks to the Islamist opponents, here is the link:

Sudanese Islamist calls on president Bashir to resign
Al-Tayeb Zain al-Abdeen, who is a professor of Political Science at the University of Khartoum, was reacting to Bashir’s cancelled appearance at two events this week in Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR).
"President Al-Bashir must sacrifice himself for the sake of the nation to save it from existing and projected sanctions by stepping down from power and to establish a national transitional situation before holding new elections in the North agreed upon between the political forces after a period of stabilized conditions" http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-Islamist-calls-on,37180

Al right, for those who will read the full article, al-Abdeen use the problematic of Sudan and more especially Bashir isolation in the regional political scene (Cf IGAD and EU-Africa submits). But this comes just after the Muslim Brotherhood got evicted from the political scene in Egypt. Sudan was, and still is, one of their strong bastions. Egypt and Sudan government are on the same line on Islamist political opposition (Cf Al Turabi misfortune after the 2010 elections).
NCP and Bashir in particular need an enemy to picture Sudan as a free country under siege by western powers for cultural/civilisation reasons and remain in power. But by doing so, he also accidentally opened the door for the Islamist opposition to attack him. Very wisely, the Islamist opposition choose the international community line as the “Arab line” would have disserved them and has proven to be inefficient in all neighbouring countries.
Could that be a unexpected side effect of the referendum and Bashir ending up in ICC a surprising collateral damage. I personally doubt of it, for many reasons but mainly because it would create a pro Islamist power vaccum in Sudan, something that no one, and certainly not Egypt or Ethiopia, wants.

Now back to the crazy Abyei situation:
I took some times before coming with the developments of the situation there but as a new round of discussions is opening; I thought it would e interesting to come back to it. Especially as he Misseriya decided to play the loose gun and be the wild cart in a loosing game.

Misseriya forms alternative government for AbyeiDecember 04, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Chieftains of Al-Misseriya tribe has established an alternative government to supplant the current administration of the oil-producing area of Abyei, Al-Sahafah daily newspaper reported on Thursday.
Al-Misseriya is a group of cattle-herding nomads who have traditionally crossed the borders into Abyei area for nearly nine months a year to graze their cattle. The governing National Congress Party (NCP) in north Sudan wants Al-Misseriya to vote in the referendum whereas the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of South Sudan insists that only Dinka Ngok are eligible to vote.
The new government, which has been scheduled to assume its responsibilities as of 25 December, is composed of 10 ministers. Members of the new government were selected at a meeting held on December 02 in northern Abyei.
The meeting selected Abdul Rahman Bikhtal to head the new government and Tariq Omer Shafiqah as deputy governor.
The move comes in response to an announcement by members of Dinka Ngok tribe last week that they would organize their own referendum if the NCP and the SPLM failed to break the deadlock over Abyei vote.
Tariq Omer, the deputy chairman of the new government, told Al-Sahafah that the step was a response to threats by activists of the Denka Ngok tribe

Abyei MP calls Misseriya alternative government a “mockery”December 5, 2010 (JUBA) - The MP for Abyei has strongly criticized the recently formation of an alternative government in the oil-producing by the Misseriya tribe, who are demanding a right to vote in a referendum to decide the region’s future.
Abyei MP Arop Madut Arop responded to the move by saying it was “mere mockery system” created by a “merchant class of Arab slave traders with business mentality”.
He denied reports that the Dink Ngok tribe were planning to organize their own referendum, should the NCP and their southern counterparts, Sudan’s Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) failed to break the deadlock over Abyei vote.
The MP also accused Thabo Mbeki, the former South African President, who currently head the African Union high level implementation panel on Sudan, for “taking sides” in the ongoing Abyei negotiations.
“Thabo Mbeki has lost neutrality in the mediation process. His [Mbeki’s] brother has business links with the Khartoum regime and this is something we all know about. Now, how do you expect such a person to act as a mediator on sensitive issues like the one on Abyei?” Arop asked.http://www.sudantribune.com/Abyei-MP-calls-Misseriya,37176

That could be just a joke but… It’s already had consequences on the field.
This shows clearly that there is a need of important soft component in the field at grass roots level. I’m not too much of a chamberlain fan and the communities comes first theory but in state building and peace building, there is definitively a need to have a better awareness/education community’s oriented component. Especially in areas where communities over and sudden become the stake of State/Peace building. Most of the time, they never saw any form of government during the past 50 years and from one day to another, without really fully understanding what is going on, they have to behave in accordance with the Law, respect a government and administration…
And I perfectly know that it is a burden for most of us. Even a threat to the fragile government to be in some cases. But what the Misseriya are doing is just proving that they got it all right: we do not want to be an instrument of the North or the South, so we create our own State. And this mess up a little more the North/South talks but in fact increase our representation in the talk. Will the State department go to discuss with the Misseriya government… That’s another story.

M-A Lagrange
12-08-2010, 12:52 PM
Juba officials accuse, Sudanese army deny fresh bombing in the South

December 7, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan government accused today the northern Sudan army of bombing positions in the greater Bahr el-Ghazal province while the latter denied the allegations.
Southern Sudan minister of information, Barnaba Marial Benjamin Bil, accused today Khartoum army of working to undermine the referenda on self-determination by carrying out regular air attacks in southern Sudan.
"The Sudan Armed Forces are intentionally sabotaging conduct of the referendum in order to return the country back to war. I’m told two of their planes were in western Bahr el Ghazal State today after reports that they have again bombed Northern Bahr el Ghazal State on Monday," said Marial.
The minister said voter registration processes in the two states of west and northern Bahr el Ghazal have been greatly affected air attacks. "Voter registration processes in Western and Northern Bahr el Ghazal has been greatly affected air attacks on these areas by the Sudanese armed forces. People there have run away and registration centers have been closed," he said.
However, the Sudanese army spokesperson Al-Sawarmi Khaled dismissed today the accusations but reaffirmed it will continue to hit Darfur rebel groups without violating the southern Sudan border.
"Allegations that SAF bombed positions in Bahr el-Ghazal are baseless. The armed forces did not bomb any areas in southern Sudan," Al- Sawarmy said in a press statement he put out today.
"Those who promote such allegations did not know the friendly atmosphere that prevailed yesterday the meeting of the Sudanese Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha and Southern Sudan government Vice-President Riek Machar and the understandings reached between the Sudanese government forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA)," the military spokesperson further stressed.
He however stated that the Sudan Armed Forces continue operations to fight and hunt down Darfur rebels on the border between North and South Sudan in Bahr el Ghazal region without penetrating south to 1956 border.

After Jan 15, that's gonna be fun to decide where the border is... And if JEM rebels are or not in a foreign country.:D

SWJ Blog
12-11-2010, 02:31 PM
Insurgencies in South Sudan: A Mandatory Path to Build a Nation? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/12/insurgencies-in-south-sudan-a/)

Entry Excerpt:

Insurgencies in South Sudan:
A Mandatory Path to Build a Nation?
by Marc-Andre Lagrange

Download The Full Article: Insurgencies in South Sudan (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/620-lagrange.pdf)

The 2010 elections in Sudan were more than just a formal exercise for the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLM/A). It was for both of them the ultimate test of the capacity of SPLM to turn from an armed insurgent/liberation movement into a government supported by a national army and set the base for separation from Khartoum regime. Immediately after its first elections, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) had to face two small scale insurgencies in Jonglei State. Led by General George Athor and David Yaw Yaw, those two insurgencies, despite their apparent limited scale, had a serious destabilizing potential for the first elected government of South Sudan.

Download The Full Article: Insurgencies in South Sudan (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/620-lagrange.pdf)

Marc-Andre Lagrange is humanitarian and relief aid expert specializing in the conflict zones of Africa. He worked on the ground throughout the last decade mainly in Central Africa.

Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/12/insurgencies-in-south-sudan-a/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

M-A Lagrange
12-13-2010, 07:52 PM
SAF already bombed several villages in the North of Northern Bar El Ghazal, creating a complexe problem of where is geographically located the operations as the border of Northern Bar El Ghazal is located North to the CA border that is actually used to determine the separation between North and South. Smartly, SAF used that «#geographical#» vaccum to conduct operations in a territory that is not yet not under its authority.
Now, SAF is conducting operations against the Darfur rebel group of Sudan Liberation Army of Minawi. But where it comes dodgy is that there are more and more declarations from Khartoum to accuse SPLM to support the SLA. Statements which are not always denied by Minawi...

Sudanese army attack former Darfur rebel group
December 9, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Sudanese army clashed today with troops loyal to the former Darfur rebel leader Minni Minnawi heading to southern Sudan, Sudan’s military spokesperson said today.
Al-Sawarmi Khaled, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) spokesperson accused Minnawi of moving his troops to southern Sudan in order to prepare for war. He also said that are now a target for the Sudanese army.
"We are searching for them and will engage them," he said.
Minnawi stated on Thursday that he has to intention to declare war against Khartoum. He further said his movement is ready for war if Khartoum seeks it.
"The door to dialogue will remain open if the government wanted it, but we will not seek it and we are not those who need it."
A government semi official media organ (SMC) said last week that Minnawi was advised to attend the conduct of southern Sudan referendum before to engage war with Khartoum.

Sudanese army carry out more attacks against Minnawi in Darfur
December 11, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Sudanese army carried out attacks during the last two days against the troops loyal to the former rebel leader who signed Abja peace agreement the UNAMID said today.
These attacks come after the Sudanese army announced on Thursday a first attack on Thursday 9 December on Minni Minnawi fighters saying they were attempting to join southern Sudan.
On December 3, Al-Sawarmi Khaled, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) spokesperson said that Minnawi troops are now legitimate target and accused them of preparing for war. He added they have moved with weapons and vehicles from the areas assigned to them towards southern Sudan where is based the leader of the group.
Minnawi has consistently accused the Sudanese government of not implementing the 2006 peace agreement particularly the security arrangements protocol.
He was also expecting to be associated to the formation of the NCP dominated state governments but the three governors of North, South and West Darfur refused the participation of the former rebels in their administrations.
Khartoum accused the southern Sudan ruling SPLM of supporting Darfur rebel groups; it also warned Juba of severe consequences if it continues to back insurgents in western Sudan.

A trick from Khartoum or just some rebels from Darfur who try to get some benefits from the South Sudan referendum?

M-A Lagrange
12-20-2010, 12:39 PM
Let’s start with the big star: Abyei

Abyei administration says north Sudan army deployed troops in the region
Angok claimed that the 31 battalion of SAF was currently present in the areas of Nama and Laffat al-Tumsah, adding that the battalion was receiving large reinforcements.
The press secretary, who warned of a military escalation in the area, said that south Sudan army, SPLA, did not have any presence in the area except the battalion affiliated to the Joint Defense Forces (JDF).
Established under the security arrangements protocol of the CPA, the JDF comprises equal number of military units from SAF and SPLA. The JDF is meant to be dissolved if south Sudan decided to secede.
However, SAF’s spokesman Al-Sawarmi Khalid Saad said the 31 battalion was deployed in the area permitted under the security arrangements protocol. He said that the battalion was inside the city and now it had been re-deployed to its area.http://www.sudantribune.com/Abyei-administration-says-north,37330

They tried and them they losed… Not really a big deal.

During that time in Jonglei:

Athor seeks modification on executive pardon over fate of his forces
Dok James Puok, spokesman of the renegade group in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Malakal town on Saturday also confirmed the meeting of the South Sudan delegation with General Athor but said needs President Kiir to modify amnesty he issued in October so as to accommodate fate of their forces.
"Yes, the delegation of the government of south Sudan met General Athor on Wednesday. This was after our delegation met him first on Tuesday to brief him on the processes of negotiation," said Dok James Puok.
The official spokesman said they have discussed all their demands and raised concerns on the condition, which required forces of the General Athor to lay down their arms before joining SPLA forces.
"Some of the issues we discussed with delegation of the government of south Sudan were simple issues but one of our major concerns is the fate of our armed forces because the amnesty was not clear. The president needs to make it clear so that it covers the fate of our forces," said Dok.http://www.sudantribune.com/Athor-seeks-modification-on,37339

Let see how this will evluate. Hopefully peacefully.:o

While South is trying to get unified, in North NCP is preparing the after referendum and contain the radical islamist push.

Sudan’s Bashir endorses lashing of YouTube woman, says North will transform into Islamic state
Bashir went further to announce that North Sudan will move fully into an Islamic law state after the likely secession of the South in next month’s referendum.
“If god forbids, the South separates [then] the constitution will be amended [and] a lot of things relating to the South will go away,” he said.
“But the opaque talk [about] the Sudanese people I don’t know what…is multi-racial and multi-religious, the [Islamic] Shari’a will be the main source for lawmaking….and Arabic language will the official language of the state as will be stipulated in the upcoming constitution,” Bashir added.
The head of the SPLM’s Northern sector Yasir Arman said Bashir’s statements would encourage repression in the north.
"This type of discourse is preparing the ground for a police state. The north, whether alone or with the south, is an extremely diverse place."
Arman said it was the north’s hard-line stance that had pushed southerners towards separation.
"If it [the north] continues like this it will encourage other areas like Darfur, the Nuba mountains and eastern Sudan to walk out as well," he added, referring to areas on the peripheries of northern Sudan.
"It will also result in Sudan having worse relations with the outside world," Arman said.http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-Bashir-endorses-lashing-of,37345

I just coud not make a better evaluation of the situation than Mr Arman.

South Sudan Secession is Not the End of the World

Basher stressed government’s commitment to fully finance agriculture, and introduce mechanization, advance technology and other inputs to overcome the problem of skilled labor.
He urged farmers to settle government loans so as to qualify for re-lending in the coming season, stressing the importance of assigning more concern to animal resources promotion as well as forestry, particularly plantation of Gum Arabic Trees (Hashab) as the prices of the produce have been liberated.

The president renewed government's sponsorship of the vulnerable in that state through prepared mini- agricultural projects funded by the state government, Zakat Chamber and credit funds, for allocation to poor individuals.

Electrcity and Dams Minister, Osama Abdallah said the plan was one of the infrastructures that support agricultural and industrial sectors within the framework of the Agricultural Development Program. He added that expansion of the national electricity network’s capacity would increase supply in the region, particularly after linking the new plant in Gedarif with that of Hawatta and Fao ones.

For his part, Director of the Sudanese Company for Electricity Transition Ltd, Ja'afar Ali Albasher, reported that the plant would be installed by the Indian Company Englec to the cost of $35 million funded by the Indian Bank for Exports Development. http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=65351

Bashir does have a very limited “marge de manoeuvre” and so do the external powers, regional included.
He has to please the radical islamist and to sustain households economical level. And make peace in Darfur, and clear his self from theft allegations, and escape the ICC… A busy agenda I would say.
But the main problem in the post referendum is not Bashir. The main problem is that if there is a new North/South war with a second front in Darfur and possibly a third one in East or Nuba Mountain… Are we really sure that it will turn in the advantage of reasonable people?
In Sudan as in other countries with strong militarised government/paragovernment and leader on the run, the problematic is not just one man but rather who could replace him.

M-A Lagrange
12-23-2010, 06:36 AM
South Sudan army clash with forces loyal to General Athor, 12 killed
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Monday from his base in the extreme northwestern part of Jonglei, in an area close to Malakal town, Capital of the Upper Nile State, Athor accused the SPLA of attacking his forces twice over the weekend.
"The SPLA forces from Khorliet and Khorwac launched two attacks on our forces on Saturday and Sunday, he said.
"This was part of organized attempt to execute orders (given by Juba) that some of my senior commanding officers and I should be captured alive and killed at the meeting we had recently with a delegation sent by president of the government of south Sudan to meet me," he stressed.
However the plot failed because he had been already informed about it before the meeting took place, he claimed.
"We were already getting enough information about this plan. We had the information of when and where they would initiate and launch an attack which they had planned to advance to the venue of the meeting," said Athor
The Southern Sudan President, Salva Kiir Mayardit,earlier this month issued a presidential decree to tasking a committee to discuss with the renegade to ways end his rebellion. The committee headed by Archbishop Daniel Deng Bul of the Episcopal Church of the Sudan.
Biar Atem, an official from the government of south Sudan, in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Juba described the statement as "incorrect and backtracking statement".
"Nobody had the plan to arrest or kill George Athor. Everybody support peaceful dialogue initiated by South Sudan president, so he should stop giving out unnecessary and incorrect statements to the media," said Atem in a seemingly angry voice.
"There are no people plotting against him instead it is him backtracking efforts of South Sudan President to bring peace and unity of all South Sudanese including him and other traitors," he emphasized.

Southern army says it will not carry out reprisal attack against General Athor
General Salva Mathok Gengdit, a presidential advisor on SPLA affairs in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Juba on Tuesday said he regretted the clash and that initiating another attack was not an option.
“The clashes that I am told occurred over weekend are regrettable because nobody had expected resumption of armed confrontation, while president has appointed a committee tasked to explore ways and modalities of how to implement the amnesty,” said General Mathok.
Mathok, who previously served as a deputy chief of general staff for administration and finance, under the command of General Oyai Deng Ajak, said the president and chief of general staff are informed of the latest incident.
"The president of the government of south Sudan and general chief of staff of the SPLA forces are informed. They are aware of this incident and something good is being done about it," said Mathok.
On his part, the SPLA spokesman, Colonel Phillip Aguer said he still does not have clear information but received reports from the local command that forces loyal to General Athor laid an ambush for their forces that were in the area.
"The report we have is that forces armed personnel suspected to be supporters of George Athor laid an ambush for our forces in Pigi County in Jonglei state," said Aguer.
"He attacked while talks with him are in the progress,” he said stressing that the incident will be treated separately and amnesty negotiations would continue.
The senior military officer said he still does not have accurate information regarding casualties but reports that some soldiers were among the dead and injured.
"I still do not have accurate figures and details of the clash. We are still gathering details of this incident because this happened in the remote area but there are reports that at least 14 people have died. Two of whom were those who sustained injuries on Sunday attack," said Aguer adding “there maybe more”.
The figure of 14 is an increase on earlier reports, which said that 12 people died in the attack.

SPLA is consistent in its containment strategy and this is basically showing that Athor is trying to take advantage of it. It really brings the question of how far can you conduct COIN without focussing on pressuring the insurgent.
At this stage, GoSS is still on the bright side and finally winning this COIN campaign as GoSS still appears as the nice guy who tries to give peace a chance while Athor is the one spreading violence.
But would those negotiations fail that GoSS would face a very delicate situation.

12-23-2010, 04:07 PM
Rift Valley Institute, 1 Dec 10:

When Boundaries Become Borders: The Impact of Boundary-Making in Southern Sudan's Frontier Zones (http://www.riftvalley.net/resources/file/When%20Boundaries%20Bec)

The demarcation of the north-south boundary in Sudan, as stipulated by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), has the potential to draw a new international boundary in Africa, one that will run from the Central African Republic (CAR) to Ethiopia. The boundary between northern and Southern Sudan is some 2,010 km (1,250 miles) long. If Southern Sudanese vote for secession in the referendum due to be held in 2011, this boundary will become a border between two new states.
The Kafia Kingi Enclave: People, Politics and History in the North-South Boundary Zone of Western Sudan (http://www.riftvalley.net/resources/file/Contested%20Borderlands%20-%20Kafia%20Kingi%20Enclave20.12.pdf)

This is a study of the western extremity of the border between Darfur and Southern Sudan, with a focus on the Kafia Kingi enclave. Both Western Bahr al-Ghazal (93,900 km2) and South Darfur (127,300 km2) are huge places: respectively, they are roughly the size of South and North Korea, or Portugal and Greece. At 25,000 km2 Kafia Kingi alone is the size of Puerto Rico.

The enclave is sometimes referred to as Hofrat al-Nahas (which means ‘copper pit’), after an ancient mining settlement at its northern edge. Its area is roughly contiguous with the Radom Biosphere Reserve, a national park recognised by UNESCO. The enclave’s territory covers 12,500 km2, roughly the size of Puerto Rico. Formerly part of Bahr al-Ghazal, the enclave is currently under the administration of South Darfur.

This report includes an overview of the history of Kafia Kingi covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. During that time place names, administrative boundaries and ethnic groups have all changed, and most administrative terms have changed their range of reference.

M-A Lagrange
12-31-2010, 06:27 AM
Sudan threatens UN over auditory report on DDR fundsSudan has demanded the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP) to provide it with a detailed auditory report on the finances of a program designed to rehabilitate former war soldiers, as news of money abuse by UN officials working for the program surfaced in foreign media.
A German newspaper recently cited a confidential UN report as disclosing that some 50 UN experts working for the DDR program in south Sudan had received exorbitant salaries of 14 million US dollars.
According to the paper, the report also disclosed that some UN experts had received salaries of fake names that do not exist in the UN payroll.
News of the financial irregularities has prompted Sudan to react, threatening to report the issue to the UN Secretary General if the UN fails to provide it with a full details on audits carried on finances of the program.
The official in charge of coordinating the DDR program with the UN in Sudan, Osman Nuri, on Tuesday claimed that the UN had only released 39.967.380 out of 105.068.169 US dollars provided by the donors for the DDR program.
As reported by Sudan’s official news agency SUNA, Nuri, further recounted that the official in charge of coordinating the DDR program in south Sudan, William Deng, has noticed that enormous amounts of money were being spent outside the purview of the program.
Nuri said that these two facts made the government suspicious that the UN was abusing donors’ fund.
Consequently, Nuri added, the government had asked the UNDP to appoint independent auditors to review the way it handled donors’ money.
The Sudanese official said that the UNDP had indeed appointed independent European auditors but refused to release a full report on their findings to the Sudanese authorities, citing internal regulations which prevent it from doing so.http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-threatens-UN-over-auditory,37429

The new erupting scandal on UNDP DDR funds miss management in South Sudan is just one of many.
How do you expect to build a state based on good governance and accountability when the very same international institutions which are supposed to teach others are not transparent and not accountable to anyone? When donors do not seek for results but for political gain?
No wonders why we end up building fake/failed states, they just reproduce what the international community is doing!

In the main time,

Sudan’s FM warns of war with Juba over Darfur rebels
"We want the South to have a healthy start, safe and stable and we do not want it to be a party to what is going on between the government and the Darfur movements," Karti further said.
The minister pointed out to government allegations that the southern Sudan ruling SPLM harbors Darfur rebels groups and supports them with logistics and weapons. Since last November, Sudanese warplanes also bombed different areas in southern Sudan saying they hit Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) fighters.
Minni Minnawi, the sole signatory of Darfur Peace Agreement and former Senior Presidential Assistant is now based in Juba. His forces clashed with the Sudanese army recently in different areas in Darfur and he is considered as "legitimate target" by Khartoum.
The government says JEM rebels are now trained by the southern Sudan army SPLA and Ugandan army, but the rebels and Juba denied the allegations.
The visiting Amr Moussa said the Arab League said there was no indication that north and south would return to war.
"I don’t see any indication that the parties have the willingness to go back to war," Moussa said, adding "What is going on between them is far away from war. There is a political good will."
The Arab League chief who will dispatch some 87 observers to monitor the referendum said the regional organization will "respect the result of the referendum and what the voters decide," he said.http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-FM-warns-of-war-with-Juba,37430

Sudan’s NCP warns SPLM against annexation of Abyei

The NCP official said that the Dinka Ngok have agreed to allow the Misseriya to take part in the region’s referendum after earlier opposition to the idea.
He warned that if the SPLM goes ahead with any unilateral measures in Abyei the NCP will reject the South Sudan referendum outcome.
"On Abyei, our grave concerns have not abated. As the negotiations continue, it is vital that everyone involved shows patience and does their utmost to reach a peaceful and permanent settlement acceptable to all" said Benjamin Mkapa, the chair of the Panel and the former President of Tanzania.http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-NCP-warns-SPLM-against,37436
It is clear to every body here that in case of regain of war activities in Darfur in the post referendum period, it will be difficult for GoSS to not try to take the occasion to realise an old dream: take war to the North.
And it would be foolish from the Darfur rebel to not take the occasion of the creation of this new country with whom they share an ennemy to use it as safe heaven and “arriere”.
But what is even clearer is that both regimes need a war to preserve their position and stay in power and avoid implosion, in Nrth as in South.

Colin Robinson
01-03-2011, 06:52 AM
People interested in this issue may wish to take a look at the new report from the Small Arms Survey - HSBA:

See below post for link.

Making the SPLA a professional army has a very, very, very, long way to go, and actually, in my view, isn't really possible..

01-03-2011, 06:09 PM
The link is not working, but once here Arms Holdings (http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures-arms-holdings.php) clicking on (from HSBA Issue Brief 15) will get the pdf file.

Clicking on Arms Flow (http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures-arms-flows.php) will echo much of M-A's concerns as well as previously documented concerns in Zaire and now DRC.

A number of legal instruments exist for regulating transfers of arms to and within Sudan, though they are generally regarded as insufficient for stemming in-flows. The UN Mission in Sudan and the African Union/United Nations Hybrid operation (UNAMID) in Darfur are tasked with monitoring and reporting on arms flows, but have failed to adequately document them; UNAMID has also been a source of weapons and ammunition to armed groups.

Colin Robinson
01-03-2011, 10:11 PM
Direct link:-


Rex Brynen
01-08-2011, 05:35 PM
Voting in the southern Sudan independence referendum starts on Sunday. A few quick references:

BBC, Southern Sudan referendum Q&A page (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12111730)

UN DPKO, UNMIS mission page (http://unmis.unmissions.org/)

UN OCHA, ReliefWeb page for the Sudan (http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc104?OpenForm&rc=1&cc=sdn)

South Sudan Referendum Commission (http://www.ssrc.sd/SSRC2/)

Crisis Group, Sudan page (http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/sudan.aspx)

M-A Lagrange
01-09-2011, 07:28 PM
Actually, the situation is quiet in almost all of the country. But still, this is not exempt of exceptions#:

Human rights violations by security forces and police in the south
Amnesty International documented human rights violations by security forces and by members of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) during the April 2010 elections. In the south, as well as the north, journalists were arbitrarily arrested and harassed for reporting electoral violations. Voters and members of the opposition were also harassed and intimidated in some parts of the south.
Although the preparations for the referendum have been relatively peaceful, it is essential that authorities issue clear instructions to all members of the police and armed forces to respect and protect the human rights of all citizens, and make sure that any perpetrators of human rights violations are held accountable.
Violations by members of the SPLA in various parts of south Sudan, including attacks on the local population, have been reported in recent years. The threat of outbreaks of violence may restrict movement in some areas. Amnesty International calls on all law enforcement agencies including members of the SPLA to allow the freedom of movement of all citizens.

Six killed in clashes between SPLA and rebel militia ahead of referendum

At least six people have been killed and 26 taken hostage in clashes over the weekend in Unity state between rebel militias and southern Sudan’s army – the SPLA – as the military give conflicting details on the attack, which comes days ahead of a referendum on the region’s independence.
SPLA spokesperson Philip Aguer, said the southern Sudan army ambushed militia loyal to Galwak Gai. He also claimed in statements to Reuters they were sent by Khartoum to disrupt the south’s referendum.
“From our side, I am told no single soldier has been killed. There are also no reports of injuries on our side from the ground but I am told six on the side of the side of the attackers have been killed.”
“Two (of Gai’s militia) were killed yesterday on Friday and additional four others were killed today on Saturday and our forces are following them. They are conducting hot pursuit. They will not give them room to sabotage this coming referendum so that our people exercise their rights to vote in a free environment. They will make sure that they are outside southern territory today so that [the] upcoming vote is conducted in an in security free environment. They will make them run and bring them under control,” Aguer said.

Clashes ahead of Sudan referendum

There was also fighting reported in the disputed border region of Abyei over the weekend, leading to as many as 9 deaths, said Charles Abyei, the areas speaker of the assembly. While details remain unclear, the fighting was reportedly between members of the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya tribes.


But the voting period is not the critical one#! The immediate post voting, January 16 until results proclamation, will be critical one as the Southerners will realized they just voted to have the right to become independent and are not independent. And then after July when they will realize that they have no enemy to unify them and that SPLM is not capable to deliver what it promised them.

01-09-2011, 07:39 PM
Hi M-A and greetings from the frozen north !

I couldn't help but wonder about you today as I watched Euronews. Although little violence during the elections (relatively speaking for Africa), they discussed some undisputed border areas and still unresolved oil revenues.

Looks like you have Jimmy Carter there too :rolleyes:

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange
01-10-2011, 08:54 AM
Deadly clashes in Abyei on first day of South Sudan referendum

Dinka Ngok sultan, Kual Deng Magok, said the clashes erupted after the Misseriya attempted to capture the village of Macare and that Southern security forces had been ambushed.
But the senior Misseriya leader, Hamdi al-Doudo has said the clashes were triggered by the southern army (SPLA) moving up to 1,500 soldiers into the area, which the Arab nomads regards as a route to grazing fields.
South Kordofan Governor, Ahmed Haroun, has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune from the oil-producing region, Juac Agok, the acting SPLM chairman in the area, said armed groups camouflaged as nomads killed 28 local police in a series of clashes on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
"[An] armed group possessing heavy artillery and tanks launched series of attacks on police posts in three different places in the area on Friday and Saturday. They also attacked the same and additional three other locations today," said Agok.
Agok said the clashes occurred in Maker Abior, Miakol, Todach and Shegei.
"They launched heavy attack on the police post today (Sunday) at 11 o’clock this morning at Maker Abior resulting into the killing of 18 on the side of local police and injury of 20 others. This occurred as [a] retaliatory attack, after the Friday attack, in which one police was killed and 9 others in Todach on Saturday," said Agok.
"On their side, we do not have accurate information but we have reports that 22 were killed from today’s attack at Maker. The local police who conducted sentry surveillance at five o’clock today found a lot of dead bodies. I am told 19 bodies were found. This was the clash of today. As for yesterday, 20 were found killed," he said.
The official said that some of those believed to have sustained injuries are taken to a local hospital in an area called Balilal outside of the Abyei region.
"Balilal is a one of the localities under south Kordofan state at the corridors branching to the way to Kadugli and to the north from Abyei. It is in the middle serving as the headquarters of militia group. This is where attacks against Abyei and other places in the south are planned," explained Agok.
The senior official of the southern ruling party in the area also said that 13 were injured on Friday and a further 18 members of local police in Saturday’s attack.
The Abyei administrator, Deng Arop Kuol, also in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Abyei town, confirmed the clash but gave different casualty figures.
"Yes, there were clashes starting on Friday and again today. The armed group best described as Missiriya tribesmen launched series of attacks on civilian settlements in three different locations."
"They attacked Miakol, which is about 18 km north of Abyei town, killing at least one on Friday and 9 others on Saturday. 13 were also injured and 5 today," said Kuol, the Abyei chief administrator.
The top local official, however, said that he and his northern counterpart, the south Kordofan Governor, Ahmed Haroun were ready to find a settlement to the conflict.
"Governor Ahmed Haroun was here today after traveling to Muglad for talks with members of the Misseriya tribe who are currently engaged in these attacks. In our meeting we have discussed and agreed ways forward to stop escalation of these attacks to large scale."
"On our side, we have agreed that our local police will not proceed but remain in their position. Governor Haroun also assured that he would ensure nobody from members of the Missiriya should again launch another retaliatory attack on civilian population and police post we have agreed to find immediate settlement at earliest possible so that peace is restored and movement between the two areas resumes immediately," Kuol told Sudan Tribune from Abyei.
Quizzed on what could have triggered these series of attacks beginning on Friday, Kuol said members of the Missiriya tribe and their leaders reported to have received false reports that the Dinka Ngok were planning to unilaterally declare returning south since attempts to hold referendum in the region have failed.
"The cause of attack is nothing than about false reports that the Misseriya received information that the Dinka Ngok was planning to unilaterally declare returning to the south since attempts to hold referendum as stipulated in the comprehensive peace agreement have failed. They (Misseriya) say they have heard reports that the Dinka Ngok were planning to hold their own referendum today so that they can return to the south and so were trying to deter voters from voting," said Kuol.
Abyei should entering its second day of voting in a referendum on whether it will join the south in remain in the north. The plebiscite has not taken place due to a dispute over whether the Misseriya, who enter Abyei for a few months each year to graze cattle, should be given the right to vote.http://www.sudantribune.com/Deadly-clashes-in-Abyei-on-first,37549

I’m still pretty convinced that we will end up with a declaration that part of sporadic clashes in Abyei the referendum went peacefully.
The trick is that it HAS TO be peacefull for every body to be a success. And let’s face it, if Misseriya are trouble akers and probably fed with false reports, they are not really backed up by North which has more to loose than to win in this gae.
In fact the rebels from Darfur and East just came to the conclusion that they could probably create a full havoc by getting allies:

Eastern Sudan rebels merge with Darfur JEM

The Eastern Front, a former rebel group in eastern Sudan, signed a peace agreement sponsored by the Eritrean government on 14 October 2007. The deal ended a rebellion started in 1996 with the support of an umbrella of opposition groups called National Democratic Alliance including the SPLM.
The FAES rejected the peace accord and claimed it was forged by Eritrean and Sudanese governments to normalize bilateral relations but it does not contribute to end the marginalization of the region or bring economic development.
Speaking from a JEM controlled area, FAES leader Abdel Moneim Muhi Al-Deen Ahmed told Sudan Tribune that their decision to merge with the western Sudan rebel group was motivated by their desire to end the domination of the center represented by the government of the National Congress Party (NCP).
"The Justice and Equality Movement has a national vision and also include people from the different regions representing the diversity of all the Sudan. So, we are part of this project aiming to end the domination of the center represented by the National Congress Party."
The FAES joined JEM with 270 soldier and five of its leadership council. Adam Abdalla Yahia, the secretary general of the eastern Sudan rebel group said further members of their group will join JEM bases.http://www.sudantribune.com/Eastern-Sudan-rebels-merge-with,37539

Now the real real politik question is: is that a real good idea to get Bashir out?
Better look twice at it cause if there are needs for significant changes in North, you always know what you loose but not what you will get. And what ever comes, there are very little probabilities it will be a nice open, gentle and people oriented democratic government that will come after Bashir.
On the other side backing up the rebels will just give good legitimate arguments for NCP to get more and more rigid and impose an ultimate crazy Islamic dictatorship.
The game is tied to manage to preserve a reasonable government in North.

Hey Stan, apparently we also will get Clinton but the Sudan Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not aware...:D
Sudan foreign ministry says no knowledge of visit by Clinton
The Sudanese foreign ministry today denied report of an upcoming visit by the U.S. Secretary of state Hillary Clinton to attend the commencement of South Sudan referendum today.
At least George "Clown ney" is here! To prevent clashes with satelites. :rolleyes:;)

M-A Lagrange
01-12-2011, 03:29 PM
Militia leader in Unity state says respect ceasefire after Friday clashes
Colonel Gatluak Gai, a leader of the armed militia allegedly operating with backing from the Sudan Armed Forces, in the southern state of Unity on Monday said would respect and support the recently signed permanent cease-fire between General Athor and the semi-autonomous regional government of south Sudan.
Colonel Phillip Aguer, the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army spokesman on Saturday said armed elements identified as loyal to Gatluak Gai attacked an SPLA post at Tor Bieth in Mayom county, Unity state, killing six soldiers capturing of 32 others and severely injuring 13. It is claimed that of the 32 captives, 15 were flown to Juba on Saturday.
The senior military officer denied any losses to their forces but individuals whose relatives were in the clashes on Friday and Saturday said 14 were SPLA members were killed. Bul Athian, of Aweil, the capital of Northern Bahr el Ghazal lost his brother in the attack.
"We talked today with Colonel Gai. Our discussion was about the recent ceasefire which we signed with government of south Sudan. This agreement covers forces under our zonal command. Gatluak Gai is one of our zonal commanders in western Upper Nile and David Yauyau in south eastern Upper Nile in Pibor," explained General Athor in what seems to confirm allegations that Gatluak Gai and David Yauyau are not acting independtly but are commanded by Athor.
Athor said that during the one hour long telephone discussion they seemed to reach some understandings which would encourage colonel Gai to accept the ceasefire. “It was a good discussion over some contentious issues,” said Athor without giving any details.
Gathering reactions to this interview, Sudan Tribune spoke with the SPLA spokesman in the regional capital of Juba, Colonel Phillip Aguer who welcomed what he described as “change of heart.”
"There is nothing we are looking for in south Sudan other than peace. We need peace and stability in south Sudan. Gatluak’s (Gai) calls for a ceasefire is welcomed. It is as if God has touched him to change his heart. We do not have a problem with him because it was he who launched an attack on our position after we signed the ceasefire with General George Athor, whom we believed was the overall rebel commander. When we signed the ceasefire last week with him [General Athor], we thought Gatluak was one of his officers but we were surprised when he attacked our position," explained Aguer.

Gatluak Gai is taking using General Athor success as an umbrella to gain some benefits from this referendum. SPLA announced previously they crushed him, but they did rather pushed him in a remote place. Now he is back and with this attack and sudden alliance with Athor can expect some benefits from this attrition «#soft COIN#» strategy.
For Athor, it's even a bigger benefit, he is now a general in charge of at least 3 armed groups and can really weigh in the balance.

It proves once again that «#soft COIN#» is not providing anything else than immediate results with very little political gains.

01-12-2011, 10:22 PM
Link to the FP Blog:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/11/a_heavy_price_for_war

Colin Robinson
01-13-2011, 05:32 AM
Hey M. Lagrange,
Once again, thanks for keeping us up with the play. I may not be the only one who does not fully understand your reference to 'soft COIN.' Can you explain further? Cheers

01-13-2011, 04:00 PM
CMI, 12 Jan 11: Challenges Facing Sudan after
Referendum Day 2011: Persistent and Emerging Conflict in the North-South Borderline States (http://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3926-challenges-facing-sudan-after-referendum-day-2011.pdf)

...This paper identifies nine “hotspots” or flashpoints in the borderline belt that are sites of current or potential conflict. It draws out specific factors, both historical and contemporary, that have contributed to these long-running disputes. Separate sections of the paper focus on border issues between White Nile and Upper Nile states, border issues involving South Kordofan State, and the particularly contentious issue of the oil-rich Abyei area. The greatest potential for renewed conflict lies in the alignment of local resource-based disputes with conflicts between political and economic actors at the subnational and national levels. If left to fester, such local disputes could spark widening hostilities that contribute to a return to all-out war. National and international stakeholders must therefore work to promote resolution of local disputes and resource-sharing agreements to improve the prospects for peaceful, neighbourly relations between the two successor countries....

M-A Lagrange
01-15-2011, 07:42 PM
Hey M. Lagrange,
Once again, thanks for keeping us up with the play. I may not be the only one who does not fully understand your reference to 'soft COIN.' Can you explain further? Cheers

Hey Collin, you are the seccond one to ask me the meaning of soft COIN and I thought that I used this term after reading it somewhere, most probably in the SWJ pages.
By soft COIN I refer to the counter insurgency strategy consisting in focussing in containing the insurgents in isolated areas without trying to address any of the issues they raise. It is mainly based on the use of containment, limited kinetic action and more or less the abandon of a piece of territorry to maintain the suppremacy of an administration over the rest of the territorry. I believe that South Sudan is a good exemple: SPLA surrounded the insurgents but refused to go for direct engagement; GoSS did not really do anything to chantge anything (administration or services).

I hoppe this helps. If some one has a better definition: welcome. Or better, if someone can come with the article where I saw it first: most welcome. Otherwise: I will depose a trade mark on that one!:D

M-A Lagrange
01-19-2011, 08:06 AM
Sudan Opposition Leader Arrested

Sudan Opposition Leader Arrested: Security forces in Sudan have arrested opposition leader Hassan al-Turabi from his home in Khartoum, al-Turabi’s Popular Congress Party spokesman said. The arrest comes a day after Turabi’s party called for a “popular revolution” if the Sudanese government did not reverse price hikes.
What happened in Tunisia is a reminder. This is likely to happen in Sudan … If it doesn’t, then there will be a lot of bloodshed. The whole country is armed. In the towns, it will be a popular uprising, but in Darfur, and in Kordofan as well, they have weapons.”

Let’s not be completely blind and naïve. Turabi is using the Tunisian uprising to put on the table his fundamentalist agenda once again.
It is true that in North, people are looking for a change but fundamentalist and the Muslim Brotherhood are also looking at how to use South secession to come back in power.

AU commends south Sudan election process
The African Union (AU) Commission election observer mission to the South Sudan commended on Tuesday the electoral process deeming it "satisfactory", a AU press statement said in Addis Ababa.
The Mission notes with satisfaction that the Referendum was conducted in accordance with the CPA-Comprehensive Peace Agreement- and SSRC –southern Sudan referendum Commission-guidelines.http://www.afropages.fr/20110118403631/AU-commends-south-Sudan-election-process.html

An opinion shared by the EU and the US.
Now the real challenge starts: how to avoid collapse of the South and the runaway into war with North to preserve “unity”.

M-A Lagrange
01-27-2011, 11:29 AM
Let's have a look at what others say about it#:

India calls for negotiated peace in Sudan, Darfur

Speaking at the UN Security Council open meeting on the Sudan here Tuesday, India's Permanent Representative Hardeep Singh Puri expressed "great satisfaction" that the referendum in South Sudan on whether the region
should remain a part of Sudan or be independent has been completed "successfully and peacefully."
"Successful conduct of the referendum has met an important element in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement reached between the Sudanese parties," he said.
Commending the commitment of these parties to respect the outcome of the referendum, Puri said India hoped "the same spirit of cooperation and commitment will be shown by the parties to resolve post-referendum issues which remain to be agreed upon."
However, expressing concern at a "high and worrying level of violence in the region of Abyei, Puri urged the leaders of the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka communities to show restraint and faithfully implement the agreement which was reached with the mediation of the special representative of the UN Secretary General.
"The violence witnessed last week in Abyei should remind us of the need to remain vigilant about the ground situation, which continues to remain fragile," he said expressing the "hope that the parties will cease their support to the proxy forces and seek to resolve all issues through negotiations and dialogue."
An interesting attitude from India who's one of the most not known key player in East Africa. As China, India choose to be a major economic player rather than directly intervening as a political player.

Does South Sudan secession benefit Ethiopia?

This week’s referendum also provides a political and moral support for armed groups in the region. ONLF rebels of Ethiopia have already praised the referendum in Sudan. In a statement, the ONLF said
“This vote represents a precedent affirming that there is no longer a moral or so-called legal basis for denying the Ogaden people their legitimate rights to self-determination and that the AU bears a direct responsibility to address protracted conflicts.”
The question of Ogaden is back on table...
And Somaliland is following:

Somaliland to Push for Recognition after South Sudan

The referendum will have a “positive knock-on effect,” Omar said by phone today from the capital, Hargeisa. “We will be using the South Sudan case to take a more aggressive policy to the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.”
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 when a coup sparked civil war. It has never been recognized abroad because the Organization of African Unity ruled in 1964 that post-colonial borders in Africa were inviolable. The break-up of Sudan, Africa’s largest country by area, would be a rare exception to that rule.
Somaliland enhanced its democratic credentials with elections leading to a peaceful transition of power to President Ahmed Mahmoud Silanyo in June. The vote met international standards, according to observers Progressio, a London-based development agency.
Unfortunately, the following link is coming from an anti US blog. But their analyses of the China vs USA battle in Sudan is interesting... And gives an idea at strategical level of the issues for both. (More or less)

A tale of blood and oil in Africa – US seeks to undercut China in Africa by exploiting secession referendum
This “historic vote is an exercise in self-determination long in the making,” he declares. “A successful vote will be cause for celebration and an inspiring step forward in Africa’s long journey toward democracy and justice.”
Such statements are mendacious. There is no doubt enthusiasm for secession in the south, in the hope that a line can be drawn under the decades-long civil war between the north and the south. Two million people have died in the conflict that began at the moment of independence in 1956 and continued until 2005, with the last 21 years being the most destructive. The number of those displaced is close to 4 million. Generations have been raised in refugee camps.
But the referendum has nothing to do with self-determination, peace or democracy. It is dictated by the efforts of the United States to gain strategic advantage in relation to China, which dominates [sic] the Sudanese oil industry, some 80 percent of which is located in the south. Its aim is the creation of a puppet state which will become a platform for US domination of the entire region.
The separation of the south and creation of a new capitalist state will only perpetuate religious and ethnic conflict, with the most likely outcome being a resumption of warfare. Already more than 30 people have been reported killed in clashes on the proposed border between the north and a new state in the south.

M-A Lagrange
02-05-2011, 09:57 AM
Sudan soldiers clash in Malakal: Several dead

At least 13 people, including two children, have been killed in clashes between soldiers in the volatile south Sudan town of Malakal, doctors say.
Battles broke out on Thursday between rival northern troops, some of whom want to stay in the south. Malakal has previously seen north-south clashes.
The fighting comes as Southern Sudan is waiting for confirmation of the result of its independence referendum.

Malakal is less known to be a hot spot compare to Abyei but it is actually the hottest spot just after Abyei. Fighting broke out there in the past.
Let see if the South will be able to be as cold and patient as for Bar Al Ghazal.

M-A Lagrange
02-05-2011, 10:10 AM
South Sudan accuses Khartoum of “unjustifiably” holding Abyei

Michael Makuei Lueth, a former minister of legal affairs and constitutional development and a now minister of parliamentary Affairs in the government of south Sudan in a televised statement on South Sudan Television (SSTV) Thursday night accused Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party of holding Abyei “unjustifiably” and described it as home to the Ngok Dinka.
“The National Congress Party is unjustifiably holding Abyei. This is a clear violation of provision of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement on Abyei” said Makuei. The senior member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, who was part of the delegation representing the former rebels, at the peace talks, said the Misseriya did not have any rights in Abyei, other than to the right to access water and grazing.
“When we accept in the agreement to give Misseriya the access to water and grazing, it was not because they have any right or because we were afraid of anything but it was on humanitarian grounds”, said Makuei.

While the Dinka Ngok believes that Abyei belongs to them, the Missiriya who graze their cattle in the region for some of the year, argue the area belongs to neither of the two tribes, and thus they have rights in the area. They also blamed territorial rivalry on the CPA, with most leaders from the Misseriya arguing that they have shared this land for centuries without any problem.

“We have never had any territorial dispute between us and the Dinka Ngok because we have always been one and the same people. The problem started with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the so called court ruling which talks about borders", Hassan Musa, the leader of one of the Misseriya’s groups, told Sudan Tribune on Friday from Muglad town, located west of South Kordofan’s state capital of Kadugli.


This post to put in perspective with the previous one on what's going on around Abyei and why (Partially) there are troubles in Malakal.

Also because this article illustrates very well the two sides propaganda and how thwy are instrumentalising the CPA for territorial and economical purposes. How legitimate questions from the people (How will I ensure to keep my way of living in the future) are used by both sides.

02-05-2011, 08:48 PM
for being a "little messy" - you're French. :D

Seriously, I'm one of your readers, but rarely a commenter. Fortunately, I've got only some snow to worry about - and not that much of that this winter.

That being said, the newspaper quote might give some the impression that the Malakal and Abyei problems hinge on tribal cattle grazing rights. You know better; I even know better; but some readers may not get what is at stake.

Which is this (snip from USAID chart of Oil & Gas Concession Blocks):


I've also been following this article from Foreign Affairs, Sudan's Secession Crisis, Can the South Part From the North Without War? (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67054/andrew-s-natsios-and-michael-abramowitz/sudans-secession-crisis), By Andrew S. Natsios and Michael Abramowitz, January/February 2011:

ANDREW S. NATSIOS, U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan in 2006-7, is Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and the author of the forthcoming book Sudan and Darfur: What Everyone Needs to Know. MICHAEL ABRAMOWITZ, a former Washington Post reporter and national editor, is Director of the Committee on Conscience at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.
During a visit to southern Sudan in late September and early October, we met nearly 100 people, including the south's president, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and vice president, Riek Machar, civil-society groups, church leaders, international humanitarian workers, UN officials, and many others. We traveled outside Juba to the southern cities of Malakal and Rumbek but were denied permission to travel to the north. In the course of our conversations, we came to see clearly that Garang's vision of a unified, democratic Sudan died with him. Given the depredations and atrocities that the southern Sudanese have suffered for two centuries at the hands of the northern Arabs, getting southerners to vote for unity would have been difficult even with Garang in power. One cause of the ongoing tensions is the condescending attitudes of some Arab elites in Khartoum: they continue to refer to the southerners as a'bid, the Arabic term for low-caste black slaves. For them, the south's revolt during the civil war was no liberation struggle; it was an uprising of slaves that needed to be crushed. Now, these northerners cannot abide dealing with southerners as equals. The southerners, for their part, wish to be rid of the Arabs and Islamism once and for all.

In the fall, as the date of the referendum neared, international observers and southern officials reported that Khartoum was redeploying its army, with newly purchased heavy weaponry, along the disputed north-south border. In response to the north's muscle-flexing, the southern government, which is based in the city of Juba, sent the toughest units in its own armed forces, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), and also equipped them with new heavy weaponry. The south's leaders threatened to issue a unilateral declaration of independence if the north manipulated or canceled the vote. They also privately warned that if the north attempted to occupy the oil fields in the south -- where 80 percent of the country's known oil reserves are located -- they would destroy the country's oil infrastructure. And they have the troops and the weapons to do so. If Khartoum thinks it can protect Sudan's oil infrastructure, it should reflect on the failure of the U.S. military to protect Iraq's during its occupation of that country.

and, in their conclusion:

For all their differences, the north and the south will remain dependent on each other after the referendum, if only because both need oil revenues. And so one way to avert violence might be to encourage the two sides to cooperate in the name of their economic codependence. The vast majority of Sudan's oil reserves may be in the south, but most of the infrastructure necessary to export that oil -- pipelines and a port -- are in the north. Thus, without cooperation between the north and the south, oil revenues could quickly dry up for both. Any new pipeline running from the south through either Ethiopia or Kenya is a decade and billions of dollars away. Meanwhile, some energy experts predict that Sudan's oil production may peak and then decline over the next decade. (The government in Juba, 98 percent of whose revenue comes from oil, is now racing to get international mining companies into the south to explore its mineral resources and thus help the government diversify its sources of revenue.) If oil revenues precipitously decline because of a war or a political crisis between the north and the south, Khartoum and Juba would have to lay off their huge public-sector work forces, which would destabilize both governments over time. And thanks to corruption, the elites in both capitals have personally profited from the oil revenues. In other words, maintaining oil revenues is in the interests of many parties -- and thus a powerful incentive to find a peaceful way out of the current impasse.

Given these stakes, the Sudanese, in both the north and the south, might very well manage on their own and do once more what they have done over the past six years: pull back from the brink of catastrophe, averting the worst violence, and patch together an inadequate but functional compromise that protects both parties' interests. Considering the circumstances today, Sudan could do a lot worse.

We shall see (virtually) - and you will see (literally). Stay safe.



M-A Lagrange
02-06-2011, 11:58 AM
Hello Mike,

Thanks for being such a constant support. And for the link that helps a lot to clarify my discourse. (And sorry again for not responding. I am lost at the moment :o).

Yes, I did put the emphasis on the grazing land problematic. This as we always try to look at the problematic of legitimacy and popular support into small wars.
The article you put in link, demonstrates clearly (better than me, too lost in the problematic) that there is a distance between population's claims (grazing land and cultural way of life) and governments (GoSS and GoS) interests (Oil and taxes revenues).
Oil is why the US did intervene (directly and indirectly) in Sudan and specially in the Nuba Mountains. But what the people do fight for are grazing land access rights.
We face here a very good example of manipulation of people will and legitimate claims by 2 governments to achieve economic and political objectives (clearly deeply linked) which do not echo the population claim. But in reverse, population's claims do echo the SPLM and NCP objectives.

This does question the link between root causes of insurgencies and how do insurgent groups do evolve and get created. How a popular cause can be use and abused to cover economical agendas.

There are interesting scholar works on the economical objectives from SPLA since 1994 (Year of the creation of SPLM as a political wing for SPLA). And it clearly appears (I have to past some links there, just give me some time) that once again we start with a legitimate claim based on domestic politic/policies to end up in a personnal quest for enrichment by the insurgents elites.

In the case of Sudan and the birth of South Sudan, we witness how the elites greed (Insurgents and government) affects the conflict and may even extend or set the conditions for another conflict.

Mes respects


PS: I am actually moving out from Sudan. I'll be watching it from next door: Kenya.
Sorry in advance for all those who did follow this attempt of discourse and public information treatment of South Sudan conflict deconstruction, I may have some difficulties to keep this threat up dated regularly.

Bob's World
02-06-2011, 12:28 PM
You'd think we'd evolve to being able to develop some sort of resource escrow or trust account that takes issues like the oil in South Sudan out of the equation. Allow the U.S. and China to stop worrying about which will gain an advantage on the other, and there for stop the agitation aspect of their external engagements; and also allow the parties in North and South Sudan to stop agonizing over who will gain the lion's share of the revenues.

Instead of arguing over where the line will be, etc, simply agree to the escrow and an equitable system of distribution of product and profits. Keep all the books open source on the web so that a wide range of watchdog groups can monitor. Human nature, greed, lust for power, etc are always in play though...

02-06-2011, 02:01 PM
Instead of arguing over where the line will be, etc, simply agree to the escrow and an equitable system of distribution of product and profits. Keep all the books open source on the web so that a wide range of watchdog groups can monitor. Human nature, greed, lust for power, etc are always in play though...

It's not always easy to reach consensus on what is equitable, especially when two or more groups all see some resource as "theirs" by definition.

No reason why the US or China should care where the Sudan's oil flows, as long as it flows: the issue is not who the oil goes to but the overall supply/demand imbalance and its impact on global pricing. Even if every drop goes to, say, Japan, the US and China still benefit, as the Japanese then buy less oil elsewhere and that oil is available for others to buy.

Where the money flows is of course a very different question, and it's not going to be easy to get the various parties to agree on any definition of what is "equitable" there..

M-A Lagrange
02-09-2011, 11:37 AM
First the death of the Minister of Rural development#:

South Sudan minister shot dead

February 9, 2011 (JUBA) - A minister in the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) has been killed by his personal driver who broke into his office this morning soon after his arrival.
The minister of Cooperatives and Rural Development, Jimmy Lemi Milla, was shot dead at around 10:45AM in his office, which is only about 200 meters from the office of the president.
The assilant also killed the minister’s bodyguard.
More details are expected to emerge later.


And secondly Bashir is trying facebook to counter the opposition#:

Sudanese president urges supporters to use Facebook to overcome opposition

The Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has called on his supporters to use Facebook in order to overcome groups that are opposed to his rule.
Bashir made the call during his visit to North Kordofan state on Tuesday where he inaugurated a power plant.
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) cited Bashir as instructing authorities to pay more attention towards extending electricity to the countryside so that the younger citizens can use computers and internet to combat opposition through social networking sites such as Facebook.
This is the first call of its kind by an Arab president since a wave of revolts spread across the Middle East leading to the downfall of the 23-years old regime in Tunisia and forced the Egyptian government to loosen its grip on the power and make unprecedented concessions.

This might be the first public counter cybersocialnetwork strike#! An article recently published in Wirred (Know that because of Slate not because I read Wirred. ) states that the US army has the capacity to reinitiate by force internet network in a country. This could be considered as an act of war.

I did not mentioned it but Bashir is facing some opposition demonstrations in Khartoum. The NCP is not ready to let go. Also, there are too many interests at stake now now, that an abrupt departure of Bashir is not really an option for many. And as in Egypt, the problematic of the islamic fundamentalist political opposition is part of the equation too.
Other threats have demonstrate the importance of Internet and social network in population mobilization in Tunisia and Egypt.
Here, Bashir just turn around the difficulty of censoring Internet or simply cutting the net. He choose to conduct a cyber social network strike by reversing the use of social networks at his profit.

M-A Lagrange
02-11-2011, 03:13 PM
South Sudan army retake Fangak from Athor forces -SPLA

he top military command of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army on Thursday said repelled forces loyal to General George Athor from Fangak County, Jonglei State, following a clash between the two armed forces on Wednesday and Thursday in the area.
Dok James Puok, spokesman of the rebel group in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Juba claimed Wednesday that their forces captured Fangak County from SPLA forces after launching an attack on their operational outposts in three different locations.
General Bol Koang, a SPLA division commander in the area on Thursday said South Sudan army have expulsed forces loyal to General Athor and took control of many areas Athor claimed to have captured on Wednesday.
"Our forces expulsed Athor’s immediately after entering the area yesterday. They never slept in Fangak. They entered without exchanging fire with any armed group because there were no forces in the area".
"There were only three policemen in the town", said General Koang through a language assistant during a telephone interview with Sudan Tribune from Jonglei.
James Maluit Ruei, commissioner of Fangak County also in a separate interview with Sudan Tribune confirmed expulsion of forces loyal to General Athor from the town on Wednesday.
"Forces loyal to General George Athor entered Fangak at around 2:00 PM and were expulsed by the SPLA forces the same day at around 5:00 PM. They did not spend the night in the town", said commissioner Ruei.
Ruei said the SPLA troops on Thursday defeated the insurgents and took the control of the all areas and. But he was unable to provide figures of the casualties at the time of the interview.
"I cannot give you a correct figure now because the fighting is still continuing. I have just talked to General Koang and he told me that his forces are still pursuing forces loyal to General Athor. He did not give me figures of the casualties", he said.
The resumption of hostilities days after the announcement of the referendum results raises concerns and fears for stability in the South Sudan after the independence next July.
Experts underline the crucial need for infrastructure in the underdeveloped and divided region to impose the authority of the new state. The lack of roads prevents the quick deployment of the army and police throughout the South Sudan.

And an unexpected result of the Sudan referendum#:

Ethiopia braces for oil shortage as Sudan shuts pipes
Recently, the country signed an agreement with Sudan Petroleum Company (SPC) to import 80 percent of its benzene demand from the neighboring Sudan. This agreement was to enable the government cut the huge transportation costs, which would in consequence lower the price of benzene on the local market.
The agreement with SPC has however been suspended following a three month closure of the Sudanese company’s refinery beginning February 1. And although this is not expected to impact the petroleum deal between Ethiopia and The Sudan, the three-month break coupled with Ethiopia’s inadequate storage capacities may lead to a fuel shortage.

I am not so sure of the relevance of who did start what with Athor. Apparently GoSS made the choice to finally crush Athor rebellion. The next question is: will that allow an healthy and transparent political dialog to emerge in the South or is it just the first violent act of repression of a one party dictatorship?

02-16-2011, 07:30 PM
At least 211 killed in clashes in south Sudan (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/at-least-211-killed-in-clashes-in-south-sudan-2216128.html)

By Jeremy Clarke in Juba
Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Attacks by a renegade militia in south Sudan's Jonglei oil state killed at least 211 people, a southern minister said yesterday, doubling earlier estimates. The violence has reignited concerns for the security of the underdeveloped region where voters last month opted overwhelmingly to declare independence from the north.

South Sudan's army said forces loyal to George Athor, a former army officer who staged a revolt after losing in last year's elections, were responsible for the attacks in Jonglei last week. Army and government officials said yesterday that the scale of the loss emerged after the bodies of women, children and other civilians were found in remote areas. .... (more in article - South accuses North; North denies; etc.)


M-A Lagrange
02-18-2011, 12:06 PM
Now South Sudan has a name#: Republic of South Sudan#!
And the sharing has started with its bright and clean agreement side and dirty tricks over the kids#:

SPLM: North-South border demarcation commences Sunday
Demarcation of the border between North and South Sudan, which remains a contentious issue after the South in January voted for independence, a senior official from the South’s ruling party said Tuesday.
At least 80 percent of the border have so far been demarcated.
Pagan Amum, the southern minister for peace and implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), in which the right to self determination was granted, told a media briefing in Juba that the technical committee, tasked with overseeing the demarcation process is expected to table its actions on Wednesday.
The demarcation process, Amum clarified, will also involve the mapping of the contested areas. The SPLM claim most of the areas contested should be part of South Sudan.
On the fate of Abyei referendum, Amum, also the SPLM’s secretary general, said the South’s ruling party and its Northern counterparts the National Congress Party (NCP) are due to hold a Friday meeting on the future of the oil-producing area.
Oil-producing Abyei was supposed to hold a referendum to decide whether it will remain in the North or be transfered to South Sudan but it has been delayed over disputes between NCP and SPLM regarding who is eligible to vote.

And so it is for oil#:

South Sudan rules out sharing oil revenue with North
The secretary general of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Pagan Amum told reporters today that the South will only pay a fee for using the pipelines that transport the oil to Port Sudan.
"The notion of sharing wealth will not be there. There is no continuation, whether 50 percent or anything," Amum said according to Reuters.
Most of Sudan’s proven daily output of 500,000 oil barrel is extracted from oilfields in the South whereas the pipelines infrastructure and refineries are based in the North. Both sides need to maintain cooperation on oil after secession to sustain their economies which depend greatly on oil revenues.
"There’s going to be an agreement on the South continuing exporting its oil through the pipeline in Northern Sudan and to Port Sudan, and the South will be paying pipeline fees for transportation," said Amum.
"We may be paying a transit fee because now Northern Sudan is going to be a different independent state from the south," he added.

And so comes the dirty tricks for who will get the kids#:

Sudanese company suspends oil supply to Ethiopia

Sudan Petroleum Company has temporarily suspended the agreement signed on fuel supplies to Ethiopia, after the Sudanese oil firm closed its refinery earlier this month, Sudan Tribune has learnt.
The agreement signed in 2010 between Ethiopia and Sudan Petroleum Company (SPC) was to import 80 percent of its total oil demands from neighboring Sudan. The three-month suspension is likely to cause a hike in oil prices due to Ethiopia’s lack of oil reserves.

But where the battle is raging on it's...


Abyei belongs to South Sudan – SPLM official

"There is no question that Abyei is part and parcel of south Sudan. The people of Abyei are Dinka and there is nowhere Dinka are found in Sudan a part from South Sudan. So, it is no question that Abyei is for the South and we are Dinka", said Miyen Alor Kuol a senior member of the southern Sudan ruling party in the region.

M-A Lagrange
02-18-2011, 12:18 PM
In Jonglei#?

South Sudan accuses north of arming rebels
South Sudan's ruling party accused northern authorities on Wednesday of arming rebels since the region's landmark independence vote last month, including renegade troops behind clashes that killed more than 200 people last week.
Pagan Amum, secretary general of the Sudan People?s Liberation Movement (SPLM), said renegade southern general George Athor had received supplies from Khartoum since the 9-15 January referendum in which the south voted to break away.
"Supplies were brought to George Athor even after the referendum, and this definitely must stop," Amum said.
The north dismissed the accusation and renewed its own charges that southerners were backing Dafur rebel groups.
"The charges are a justification by the SPLM to give unconditional support to the Darfur rebels who continue to launch their attacks from positions south of the 1956 (north-south) border," northern army spokesman Sawarmi Khaled Saad said in a statement.
"All groups who do not heed the calls for peace, the government of southern Sudan will be forced to engage them."
Meanwhile, a one-day meeting began in Juba on Wednesday between leaders of all the south?s parties, the start of a consultation process to draw up a constitution for the new nation.
A larger conference involving civil society groups is to follow but no date has yet been set.

Spokesman of Sudan Armed Force Colonel Khalid Sa'ad al Sawarmi rejected allegations issued by Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) accusing SAF of supporting General Athor.
In press statement, al Sawarmi said that SPLM is accusing SAF so as to cover its support to Darfur armed groups, adding that insurgents from Darfur managing their hostile work from within south Sudan southwards to 1956-borders. The statement renewed SAF commitment not to supporting any insurgents affiliating to neighboring countries, pointing out that taking geographical factors into consideration, it is impossible to accuse SAF of supporting Ator practically. He added that investigations have approved that the helicopter taken as evidence against SAF belongs to Russian company, adding that investigations approved that there is no link between SAF and Athor.

Or Darfur#?

Darfur MPs Demand to Diminish the Role of Foreign Organizations in the Region
Posted on Thursday, February 17 @ 00:00:00 UTC by admin
Khartoum- (SMC)

Darfur MPs in the National Council called Darfur called on the government concerned authorities for working to reduce the foreign presence of organizations in Darfur, accusing it of exceeding its mandate through the provision of logistic support to the armed movements and some activities that are contrary to the mandate.
The Chairman of the Darfur MPs block, Hassabo Mohamed Abdul Rahman said that the stability of the security in the said region justify the dimensions of organizations beside that the national organizations have been able to enforce humanitarian and voluntary work if find the necessary support stressing the importance of strengthening the African, Arab and Islamic presence to work with national organizations.
Abdul Rahman said that the foreign organizations have become renewed its accusations against the Sudanese government besides tarnishing the image of Sudan through misleading and fabricated reports expressing his fear of opening a new front in Darfur by those organizations after the secession of the south, adding that the government is now in the process of confidence building through the strategy put forward to solve Darfur issue.#

Sudan expels French aid group from Darfur
KHARTOUM, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Sudanese authorities on Monday expelled French aid group Medecins du Monde from a state in the Darfur region, accusing it of spying on the government and helping rebels.
U.N. sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Sudanese security officials raided the group's compound and arrested staff in south Darfur's capital Nyala on Thursday.
Sudan, highly suspicious of foreign intervention, has had a tense relationship with the aid groups that poured in to help hundreds of thousands of people displaced by Darfur's eight-year conflict between government troops and rebels.
Workers from four humanitarian organisations, who asked not to be named, told Reuters there had been a recent increase travel restrictions and worsening security conditions.

What seems to be clear is, now that South started to crush its internal rebellions with an international blessing, Khartoum seems to have free hands to do the same in North.
What ever is the out come of the actual offencive against Athor, the collateral damages in Darfur are to be monitored.
Difficult in deed for the international community to support South repression and criticise North about political freedom:

Khartoum University students arrested in Sudan security services raid

February 15, 2011 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese security authorities employed heavy force to disperse and arrest students protesting at Khartoum University against the dismissal of their colleagues for failure to pay tuition fees.
Security agents supported by students affiliated with the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) on Tuesday afternoon raided the veterinary faculty of Khartoum University and forcibly dispersed nearly 300 students participating in a sit-in to protest the university administration’s decision to prevent five students from sitting for exams because they could not pay tuition fees.
Five students were arrested after security authorities drove into the campus with their vehicles and started beating protestors.
Two of the arrested students are affiliated to the northern sector of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which released a statement on Tuesday condemning their arrest and threatening retaliation.
Last month Sudan used force to squash anti-government protests organized via the internet by youth groups encouraged by the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt that forced the resignation of both the countries presidents. Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak was ousted on Friday after 18 days of public protests.
Two minor protests were held this week in Khartoum by the mothers and relatives of those detained following last month’s protests.

Sudan says US denied its diplomat statement on “changing state structure”
Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday said it had requested “clarifications” from the U.S. on statements allegedly made by the U.S. Consul General Barrie Walkley during a meeting with leading figures from the Sudan people Liberation Movement (SPLM), which controls South Sudan.
According to a report carried by Sudan Media Center (SMC), a website closely linked to Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), the U.S. diplomat met with SPLM secretary general Pagan Amum, head of SPLM Northern Sector Yasir Arman and the SPLM’s leader in the Nuba Mountains Abdel Aziz Al-Hilu.
The website reported that Walkley had told SPLM officials that the U.S. strategy towards Sudan aims at "changing the structure of the Sudanese state," and that Washington would not abandon the issues of Abyei, Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains (South Kordofan) in light of their importance in the context of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The official spokesman of Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Khaled Moussa, on Tuesday said that the ministry had received a response from the U.S. embassy which reaffirmed commitment to implementing the understandings made between U.S. and Sudanese officials to maintain security and stability between North and South Sudan.
Moussa warned that the ministry and other state apparatus would nevertheless continue to monitor any activities that negate the understandings made in this regard and would take necessary measures whenever the occasion demands.
The U.S. Administration this month started a process to remove Sudan from its list of states sponsoring terrorism as a reward for implementing the CPA, but some Sudanese officials cast doubts on the seriousness of the U.S. to follow through on its promises.

People freedom is still limited to their strategic importance and the stability of high level political processes... Wind of freedom can blow anywhere but in Sudan at the momment. What happened in Egypt and Tunisia is not possible today in Sudan. And is most probably not wanted by many if not all international actors in North.
Now, the SPLA has to win its military campaign against Athor with a high level of respect of populations (minimal civilian cusualties). Otherwise, international community will face grave difficulties to criticise anything happening in Darfur. It is needed to prevent that what ever happens in South becomes a justificational cover for Khartoum.

M-A Lagrange
02-21-2011, 03:46 PM
Sudan’s Bashir not standing for re-election
Feb 21st, 2011
by AfricaTimes.
KHARTOUM Sudanese President Omar Hassan
al-Bashir will not stand at the next election as part of a
package of reforms aimed at democratising the country, a senior
official of the ruling party said on Monday.ù

Bashir took power in a bloodless coup in 1989. In April 2010
he won presidential elections which many opposition parties
boycotted, citing fraud.
“(Bashir) announced that he will not enter the coming
elections to compete for the presidency,” Rabie Abdelati, a
senior National Congress Party official, told Reuters.
The next presidential elections are due in four years.
Bashir is the only sitting head of state to be indicted by
the International Criminal Court, for war crimes and genocide in
the war-torn Darfur region. He denies the charges.
Last week Bashir hinted to youth members of his party that
he would retire if the NCP adopted a retirement age of 60 for
political posts .
The opposition belittled the move, saying the NCP was trying
to head off mass protests and feared contagion from popular
uprisings which have ousted the Tunisian and Egyptian
Abdelati said Bashir had also offered to step down as head
of the NCP, a move he said was part of a wider strategy to
democratise the country.

For a good news, that’s a good news. A little unexpected as his friend Kadaffi is not that willing to say good bye but Bashir did play it smart.
He first mobilized his supporters via facebook and twitter (I do not know if that did really work but it is to be noticed as an interesting tactical initiative).
And now he is “leaving power” but takes time to get achieve what he/we want.
Basically he achieve what Mubarak couldn’t.

I might give it too much importance but after the freedom wind that blew all over the Arab world following the “disaster” of Sudan referendum (On the arab side), it did finally hit Sudan; probably its starting point. Better late than never. :D
Does not mean that everything has changed and that Sudan does not play any role into nuclear weapon smuggling or Palestinian fight… But still.

M-A Lagrange
02-23-2011, 03:11 PM
UN offers mediation between renegade General Athor and South Sudan

In October, just three months prior to the conduct of the January vote on self determination for the people of South Sudan, President Kiir issued an executive order pardoning Athor and his forces. The presidential order also covered other militia leaders including Gabriel Tanyinyang whose forces clashes several times in Malakal town, capital of the Upper Nile state, resulting into scores being killed and several others sustaining injuries.
The order which received remarkable welcome from the general public was meant to reconcile political differences among political leaders and factions, in order to forge a way forward to achieving peace and stability in the region. However, the decree included some reservations demanding armed elements loyal to Athor to lay down their arms before joining the SPLA - a demand Athor viewed as not protecting the fate of his forces. Athor requested that the president amend the decree in order cover the fate of his forces and some of his political supporters.
Additionally, the president formed a high level delegation committee compromising of two bishops and generals to discuss with him ways to end violence in the area. On 5 January 2011, the government signed the ceasefire with the SPLA allowing forces to withdraw from areas previously controlled by either side and recommended some of the sites as transitory assembly points.
However, on 9 February 2011 spokesman of the renegade group, Dok James Puok, in an interview with Sudan Tribune from Juba accused the SPLA of having staged an attack on three different locations controlled by forces loyal to them. A charge SPLA spokesman, Colonel Phillip Aguer, in a separate interview with Sudan Tribune was quick to deny and accused Athor to having initiated the attack that resulted in the killing of 211 and wounding of several others on both sides.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Monday night, Dok James Puok, who did not want to give his whereabouts, said they have been contacted by UNMIS with a proposal to mediate peace between them and the Government of South Sudan (GoSS).
"The United Nations Mission in Sudan has contacted us with a proposal to mediate peace and we accepted. We are open to peace. We have never rejected any peaceful dialogue because this is what our people want", said Puok.
Attempts made by Sudan Tribune on Monday to contact official spokesman of the GoSS, Marial Benjamin Bil, minister of information and broadcasting failed.


Can't remember which post it was but UNMIS already offered to mediate at the very early stage of the crisis.
Let see this time how far this will go. But a question remain unanswered: with or without mediation, SPLA/M will have to find a path to open non violent political dialog in Sout Sudan. Otherwise, I do not see any reason for any polititian and un happy men to be to not to take arms and creat a militia.

M-A Lagrange
03-05-2011, 12:31 PM
I was giving them 1 year before going down that road.

Too bad.

George Clooney's Satellite Sentinel Project warned of escalating violence in Sudan’s Abyei region, along the volatile border between North and South Sudan.
The satellite photos show evidence of the intentional burning of the strategic border villages Maker Abior and Todach.
The satellite project, in the report "Flashpoint: Abyei", also documented a significant increase in military activity by what appears to be the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which operate in South Kordofan state, as well as an apparent buildup of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in Abyei. The increased militarization of this area, including evidence of battle tanks and other heavy equipment, has increased tensions between the two sides.http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/africa/110304/clooney-warns-new-violence-sudan

Well done George! You probably took too much drugs to be president but on that one, you did hit the target!

04-23-2011, 09:48 AM
A commentary on Africa's next new country:http://www.opendemocracy.net/sam-carpenter/south-sudan-reflections-on-fragile-state

Tries to address:
Despite continuing North-South tensions, intra-Southern fragility is now one of the most pressing concerns in Sudan, whether or not Khartoum is fuelling the flames of these insurrections. With independence due in just over two months, it needs addressing

05-25-2011, 12:52 PM
The situation in teh Abey region is deteriorating dramatically, with bands of thugs attacking even the UN. Seems as if the wors prediction become reality...


06-01-2011, 10:18 PM
An interesting, sad report:
The first interviews with fleeing residents of this Sudanese border town make one thing clear: the regime in Khartoum knows exactly what it is doing.


There also a direct counter-attack in the 'Comments'.

01-02-2012, 08:33 PM
Dear all,
Could you explain me who fight whom in S.Sudan now? I have my colleges there and I worry about their security (they are civilians).
Thank you.

01-03-2012, 02:35 PM
Dear all,
Could you explain me who fight whom in S.Sudan now? I have my colleges there and I worry about their security (they are civilians).
Thank you.

Her is a link to a RSS news feed of articles over the last month of fighting there. The feed will update itself continually. http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&gl=us&q=south+sudan+fighting&gs_upl=20456l21849l0l22204l9l4l0l0l0l0l172l491l1.3 l4l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&biw=989&bih=588&um=1&ie=UTF-8&output=rss

02-06-2012, 06:28 PM
Aidan Hartley has been wandering around South Sudan and writes a short column. It ends with:
...I sip a cold brew from Juba’s brand-new brewery that is now selling to a people who have at last gained their liberty.


Perhaps he is preparing a TV documentary?

07-06-2012, 03:36 PM
A humanitarian tragedy is unfolding in a remote corner of South Sudan, the world's newest nation – and one of its poorest -- as it prepares to celebrate its first anniversary of independence....Emergency teams admit to being overwhelmed by an influx of 120,000 refugees from fighting which continues to rage across the border in Sudan's Blue Nile State. The Khartoum government has been attacking African tribal groups who got trapped on the wrong side of a line on a map when the two countries split last July


Yes this post could go in the new Sudan 2012 thread, but sits better here.

More http://www.msf.org.uk/South_Sudan_Appeal_20120629.news?utm_campaign=sout hsudanappeal&utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=websitedetails and a map on:

Bill Moore
12-22-2013, 04:18 AM

Political Situation in South Sudan
July 24, 2013

The United States is deeply concerned by the risk to stability posed by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s decision to dismiss Vice President Riek Machar, the members of his cabinet, deputy ministers, and a number of police brigadier generals. President Kiir has also relieved Pa'gan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement.


South Sudan: assailants attack UN base sheltering desperate civilians

19 December 2013 – Unknown assailants attacked a United Nations base in South Sudan today, possibly killing or injuring civilians who had sought refuge inside during violent clashes between Government forces and rebels, with the number of people fleeing to UN installations now reaching 35,000.

“UNMISS is doing everything it can, within its means and in a very fluid situation, to protect civilians, as well as United Nations and international personnel on the ground,” a statement issued by Mr. Ban’s spokesperson said. “There are indications that civilians may have been killed and wounded in the attack, but this remains to be verified. Should these reports prove true, those responsible must be held accountable for their crimes.”

At the time, 43 Indian peacekeepers, six UN police advisers and two UN civilian staffers were present at the base. About 30 South Sudanese had sought shelter from the turmoil plaguing areas of Akobo County, the Mission said in a statement.

Bill Moore
12-22-2013, 04:22 AM

U.S. Military Aircraft Hit By Gunfire in South Sudan

Four Wounded on Mission to Evacuate Americans From Town Seized by Renegade Troops

The three Osprey aircraft were hit by gunfire as they approached the landing zone at Bor, a town seized by renegade troops earlier this week, said Wayne Perry, a spokesman for the U.S. Africa Command in Stuttgart, Germany. He said it wasn't clear what group had fired on the aircraft. The Osprey is a plane that turns into a helicopter for takeoff and landing.

The White House reported that the U.S. service members who were wounded are in stable condition.

Bor has been the scene of heavy fighting since Wednesday. On Thursday a U.N. base there was overrun by thousands of armed men. The attackers killed two Indian peacekeepers and at least 20 civilians, the U.N. peacekeeping mission said.

The American citizens in Bor aren't in immediate danger, Mr. Perry said, adding that he didn't know when the next evacuation attempt would take place. He didn't know how many U.S. citizens were stuck in the town.

He said the troops taking part in the evacuation mission were separate from a force of 45 that President Barack Obama ordered to South Sudan earlier in the week to help safeguard the embassy and citizens in Juba.

12-22-2013, 05:44 AM

Can and/or do the Osprey's have door guns or ramp guns so they can shoot back?

Bill Moore
12-22-2013, 06:02 PM

They can mount a weapon on the ramp, and if memory serves me right they have door guns in the Air Force (Special Operations) version which is the CV-22, not sure what the Marines mount on their version of the V-22 which is the MV-22. They were just coming into Afghanistan during my tour there, so while I saw them, I never flew in one. No doubt lots of guys in SWJ have first hand experience with them and can answer your question. I do recall during the V-22 troubled development phase that one of the issues was how they should be armed.

Technology is always improving, so this comment may be outdated, but it has been my experience that suppressive fire from door gunners (both window and ramp) is just that, it is suppressive fire that isn't very accurate. I know you don't want to hear this, but if someone is shooting at you from within a crowd of unarmed civilians your options are somewhat limited, unless the rules of engagement allow that type of response.

I don't know if SOF or Marines mounted the non-combatant evacuation (NEO) in Sudan, so I don't what version of V-22 went in, and since the weapons are optional, I don't know if they had weapons mounted. Despite the troubled development period, by most accounts the V-22 does give us some pretty good capabilities we didn't have previously.

video link showing tail mounted weapon


12-22-2013, 09:40 PM
A short backgrounder, from someone who has been working in South Sudan, this summary says enough:
A power-grab by rebels would come with huge civilian casualties and also set a bad precedent in a country with long ethnic rivalries, lacking a professional military and with an armed civilian population.


I note the UN peacekeepers have taken casualties, as they are Indian soldiers one wonders if this will affect the debate back home on participation. India contributes a third of UNMISS military mission, with battallion groups from: Kenya, Mongolia, Nepal & Rwanda. I note there are (were) four US military observers and twelve police officers.

BBC is now reporting the rebels have seized control of the province where the oil is. The link has six useful map:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25487084

Bill Moore
12-23-2013, 01:45 AM

Americans evacuated from South Sudan battleground

About 380 Americans and 300 citizens of other nations have been evacuated in recent days to Nairobi and other locations on four chartered flights and five military aircraft, Psaki said. An unknown number of people have left on their own and an unknown number remain in Bor and surrounding rural areas.

"The U.S. government is doing everything possible to ensure the safety and security of United States citizens in South Sudan," the statement said. "We are working with our allies around the world to connect with and evacuate U.S. citizens as quickly and safely as possible."

Looks like the UN conducted the majority of the NEO along with some U.S. civilian helicopters on contract in the region. Probably was the best option, but after all the hype (deserved or not) on Bengazi. I suspect the US government felt compelled to send U.S. forces quickly to prevent political backlash at home.

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/other-world/key-events-in-the-brief-history-of-south-sudan-1.1269670?utm_content=1.1269670&utm_medium=RSS&utm_source=Feeds&utm_campaign=Key_events_in_the_brief_history_of_So uth_Sudan&localLinksEnabled=false&utm_term=News_RSS_feed

Key events in the brief history of South Sudan

A brief and troubled history, so I'm sure the South Sudan watchers were not surprised by this eruption of violence.


U.S. welcomes birth of new nation, South Sudan

"A proud flag flies over Juba and the map of the world has been redrawn," Mr. Obama said in a statement recognizing the new country. "These symbols speak to the blood that has been spilled, the tears that have been shed, the ballots that have been cast, and the hopes that have been realized by so many millions of people. The eyes of the world are on the Republic of South Sudan. And we know that southern Sudanese have claimed their sovereignty, and shown that neither their dignity nor their dream of self-determination can be denied."

What else could the President say in a diplomatic setting like this? Congratulations on the stillborn birth of your nation?

South Sudan's declaration of independence was achieved because of a U.S.-supported agreement brokered six years ago by the Bush administration, and the hope in Juba is that the U.N. (which authorized a peacekeeping force on Friday) and the U.S. will be able to find the resources to help South Sudan get on its feet.


The U.S. Role In Setting Up South Sudan

April 27, 2011

U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman explains the U.S role in setting up the new country.

This is a short read, and it was clear that Mr. Lyman had a realistic perspective in this interview.

CONAN: The controversies include?

Mr. LYMAN: Partly because of the opposition parties feel they were not part of the process, partly because they think the transition period of four years is too long and that there should be a government of national unity during that period, not simply a continuation of the present regime.

CONAN: In the meantime, there are so many other institutions that have to be established: a legal system, you have to design a flag and currency and passports, a million things.

Mr. LYMAN: A million things. And there is not a deep level of cadre in the south to handle all these things. They have to set up - as you say, they have to set up a central bank if they're going to have their own currency. They have to set up ministries at the state level, as well as the national level, to deliver services, create courts with the appropriate personnel, passports, as you say, establish treaty relationships as a new country with all the other countries with whom they're dealing - a tremendous amount of work. And they are working very hard at it, but it is quite challenging.

12-23-2013, 04:59 PM
Hey Carl,
There are 50s on the doors and even a Gatling gun on the fuselage :)

and... you are well aware of what all that firepower doesn't do when a heard of gun slingers on the ground are shooting into the air ala Zairois...

Must be a lot of money to be made in that country for 300 American idiots to stay there and spend our tax dollars to get them out :rolleyes:

Merry Christmas !

Regards, Stan

12-23-2013, 07:26 PM
I know you don't want to hear this, but if someone is shooting at you from within a crowd of unarmed civilians your options are somewhat limited, unless the rules of engagement allow that type of response.


I know a little about all that, so I don't mind hearing anything. Most is learned from things not wanted anyway.


Merry Christmas too!

03-19-2014, 09:36 PM
There is not much room for optimism in this IISS Strategic Comment, another African nation retarded by its own politicians, warlords and others:https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/strategic%20comments/sections/2014-a6f5/south-sudan--39-s-persistent-strife-cd33

This maybe behind a registration "wall".

04-12-2014, 10:29 PM
I don't watch this situation closely and thought the faction fighting had abated. Instead I learnt this:
Peacekeepers from the U.N. Mission in South Sudan told their chief Hilde Johnson (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/03/qa-sanctuary-south-sudanese-20143241185674907.html) that people were flocking to UNMISS’ bases seeking protection. In the dark morning hours of Dec. 16, Johnson gave the order to let them in.

The result, four month later, is siege warfare. Tens of thousands of refugees struggle to survive on U.N. bases protected by lightly-armed peacekeepers—while outside the compounds’ walls, killers plan their attacks. Conditions are dire. The future is uncertain. Nearly 100,000 lives are at stake.

(Later) The U.N. has held out for four months. But as with any siege, the attackers have the advantage. It’s only a matter of time before money, supplies and political willpower run out.


08-31-2015, 09:47 AM
I admit (again) events in South Sudan rarely reach my in-tray, but this headline caught my attention just:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-34083964

The article gives a very short update on the current situation, with more on the American angle and a passing reference to the possible competition with China.

12-15-2015, 07:39 AM
For more, check out https://medium.com/@bubna

Several hundred SPLA soldiers are reportedly being detained and tortured in South Sudanese prisons – many for more than two years without arrest warrants or court appearances. According to one report, an estimated 75 officers and 200 foot soldiers are currently being held in Giyada Prison in Juba alone.

A dean at Juba University was picked up and detained by national security officials on his way home on 7 December. This is the second such incident in recent weeks. Earlier, Professor Luka Biong was forced to leave the country after threats to his life. The reason for the dean’s arrest remains unknown.

On 1 December, The Nation Mirror newspaper reported heavy gunfire near the main police station in Maridi County in Western Equatoria State. One officer from South Sudan’s Wildlife Services was reportedly killed, and another wounded. The gunmen remain at large. In a separate incident, WES Governor, Rizik Zackaria Hassan, accused opposition forces for attacking SPLA positions in the Tirka area on the Yambio-Wau road, south of the capital, Wau. A spokesperson for the SPLA-iO denied the accusation, and said that government forces have been deploying dangerously close to iO-designated cantonment areas thus creating tension. According to the Mirror, the WES government also dismissed claims that the SPLA-iO had complete control over four payams in the state.

19 people were reportedly killed and another 22 wounded in communal violence between the Aliap and Gony clans in Rumbek East in Lakes State. Fighting stopped when security forces intervened.
Around the same time, violence erupted between different sectors of the Dinka community in Cueibet County in Lakes State, reportedly in revenge for the murder of a school teacher. At least 14 people were confirmed dead, and more than 35 reported wounded – some in critical condition. A local government official warned of an impending attack on the local hospital by youth groups. Many in Lakes State blame caretaker governor, Major General Matur Chut Dhuol, for the upsurge in violence in the state over the last two years.

Armed pastoralist youth groups from Rup, Kuei and Pakam communities in Lakes State met to reconcile past differences and stop hostilities. Movement on the road between Rumbek North and Rumbek Central Counties had stopped due to highway ambushes and revenge killings. Additionally, incidents of rape are allegedly on the rise in Rumbek town.

According to UNHCR, recent fighting between the SPLA and the Arrow Boys in Western Equatoria State has displaced more than 4,000 civilians – most of whom have relocated to neighboring DRC. Clashes between the armed youth group and security forces led to several casualties. UNMISS police personnel are reportedly protecting about 200 civilians as heavy gunfire erupted in and around Yambio. The Yambio area is home to multiple armed groups, including the SPLA, the rebel-aligned South Sudan People's Patriotic Front under command of Alfred Futiyo, Arrow Boys community defense groups, and the South Sudan National Liberation Movement under command of Victor Wanga. In early December, President Kiir reportedly endorsed a peace deal with the Arrow Boys, although details of the actual agreement are yet to emerge. Yambio, according to local government officials, has been almost entirely emptied.

In early December, a new armed group opposing the Kiir-led government emerged in Eastern Equatoria State. The self-identified group leader and former SPLA commander, Major General Anthony Ongwaja, stated that the group’s primary objective was to restore a federal form of government. The group draws support from the Latuka tribe and calls itself the Otuho and also the South Sudan Armed Forces. The group had seized control of a police post outside Torit town, and threatened to overrun the state capital. Later in the month, it was able to capture an SPLA military base and seize military weapons along the Torit-Kapoeta highway in EES near the Kenyan/Ugandan border. Ongwaja reportedly defected from the SPLA with about 50 soldiers.
The SPLA-iO has accused the SPLA of wanton violence in Magwi County in EES. 14 youth from the county were allegedly tortured and taken away by soldiers. The SPLA-iO has forces in Magwi County in designated cantonments as part of a security arrangement agreement.

Fighting around designated cantonment areas continues in various locations in South Sudan. In northern Upper Nile, the SPLA-iO accused the government of launching aerial attacks on a rebel cantonment in the Kaka area, and crossing a buffer zone to attack rebel positions in Owech. Earlier in the month, government forces reportedly used helicopter gunships to attack a rebel assembly area in Mundri County in WES, killing two senior commanders and several rebels. In Unity State, at least 15,000 people reportedly arrived in Panyinjar County in recent weeks as violence intensified in Leer, Koch and Mayiandit Counties. According to an SPLA spokesperson, pro-government forces have been prepositioned on the Juba-Nimule, Nimule-Torit, Juba-Bor, Juba-Yei and Juba-Kajo Keji roads.

Thousands of people were displaced from Wau, the capital of Western Bahr el Ghazal State, after clashes began between government and SPLA-iO forces. Heavy shelling reportedly continued for two days, and several homes were burned by both warring groups. Over 2000 people have reportedly taken temporary shelter in schools in Wau town. Fighting also occurred in and around Bazia town and on the Wau-Tambura Road. SPLA forces have reportedly been deployed to stabilize the area.

Police officers threatened to imprison the editor-in-chief of Beitna, a Juba-based newspaper that covers crime and social issues, after the editor reportedly refused to retract an article about police units storming a police station to forcefully release an imprisoned colleague.

US senators lambasted South Sudanese diplomats at a hearing in Washington DC on 10 December, and stated that the current status quo would not be tolerated. They suggested that South Sudan’s political leaders be tried by a judicial authority. Former presidential envoy, Princeton Lyman, recommended a trade ban on South Sudanese exports, although recognized its impracticality because of Chinese and Sudanese involvement in the region.

Political contestation over a job vacancy for the gubernatorial post in the Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) may expand beyond incumbent, David Yau Yau. According to government officials in the area, the Murle community remains divided over Yau Yau’s re-election, and a consultative meeting among competing politicians is expected to take place in Juba. A representative from the Cobra Faction dismissed claims of political opposition to Yau Yau.

18 opposition political parties collectively called for increased global pressure on the two major warring groups, and urged major institutional reform during the ongoing political transition. Opposition parties collectively hold 7% of any power sharing agreement that results from the peace deal. Meanwhile, travel of an advance team representing the SPLA-iO was postponed yet again as the government demurred on their commitment towards their security. In early December, the SPLA also released 13 POWs as a gesture of their commitment towards the peace deal.

In a statement to the media, the Head of UN Peacekeeping Operations said that an additional 1,100 peacekeepers may be required to monitor the implementation of the recent peace accord signed between the two warring parties.

In a speech made to party officials, President Kiir said that the ruling SPLM party may undergo an inevitable split. According to one report, the internal group opposing the president allegedly comprises of the council of elders, some senior military figures, junior party members, a former foreign affairs minister, the government’s chief negotiator in the peace talks, and the SPLA chief. Five members of parliament were removed from their positions as heads or deputies of committees, albeit not from parliamentary membership, for opposing a constitutional amendment that would divide South Sudan into 28 states. In another development, Riek Machar appointed his wife, Angelina Teny, as the head of the SPLA-iO’s committee for security and defense.

The National Legislative Assembly deliberated on a bill to control ownership of firearms in South Sudan. The Bill authorizes private licensing of small guns including pistols and allow firearms’ businesses to work in-country, and was passed unanimously for a third and final reading before it becomes law. Government estimates suggest that there are over three million weapons in private hands in South Sudan.

The South Sudan Law Society published a report on perceptions on truth, justice, reconciliation and healing in the UNMISS Malakal PoC. The survey data, which was collected over four months, demonstrated high prevalence of PTSD and exposure to trauma among POC residents. 77% of the people surveyed reported having a family member killed, 84% had their homes destroyed, 83% reported having radically negatively altered their views towards other ethnic groups. A majority of the respondents favored forgiveness as a reconciliatory mechanism, and imprisonment as a way to address criminal accountability. According to the report, truth-seeking may be challenging in the future given a majority of the respondents wanted to avoid public conversations about the violence that has occurred since Dec 2013. Disagreements existed along ethnic lines over whether victims ought to be compensated, and how land-based conflicts ought to be addressed.

12-15-2015, 11:07 AM

Thanks for the update. South Sudan rarely gets my attention. There is a longstanding thread on South Sudan, last updated in August 2015, although the Chinese role had a mentioiin recently in the peacekeeping thread. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=8460&page=10

12-15-2015, 02:39 PM
Good to know, davidbfpo. I hope I can bring back to life the South Sudan thread ;) You will be seeing weekly posts from me with South Sudan updates. cheers.

12-24-2015, 06:27 PM
Via WoTR and the author makes her position quite clear:
So how can the United States work more effectively with the international community to end the current catastrophe in South Sudan? As a first step, it needs to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the peacekeeping mission as a whole, a subject that is at the heart of a report (linked below) I recently authored for the International Refugee Rights Initiative, which assesses the mission through the eyes of the civilians that it is mandated to protect. The report is based on field research I carried out with two other researchers in October of this year, in which we interviewed civilians as well as government, NGO, and UN officials (including UNMISS). We did this in response to a growing recognition that the need to develop better responses to situations of conflict in which atrocities take place has not been matched by an in-depth understanding of the needs and aspirations of those most affected, nor an adequate understanding of the political, historical and social context in which these atrocities happen.

Link to cited report (27 pgs):http://www.refugee-rights.org/Publications/Papers/2015/ProtectingSomeofthePeopleFINAL.pdf

04-18-2016, 09:56 PM
Temporary separate thread for maximum visibility.

(EBC; April 18, 2016) - The African Union Commission has "condemned in the strongest terms the criminal attack carried out by South Sudanese armed elements in the Jakawa area of the Gambella region".

The South Sudanese gunmen group killed 208 people and abducted 102 women and children on 15 April 2016.


04-19-2016, 05:05 PM
A BBC report suggests a motive and context for this incident:
Ethiopia's army is trying to rescue 108 women and children abducted in a cross-border raid in the western Gambella region, the government says.
It blamed Friday's raid, in which 208 people died, on the Murle community from neighbouring South Sudan.

The Murle have previously been accused of carrying out cattle raids and stealing children to raise as their own.

04-21-2016, 11:22 AM
In what appears to be a first-hand report from Gambella, which explains why this attack broke a twenty year absence of such raids. In part it is tribal, in part reflects the instability on both sides of the border:http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/20/unbridled-violence-gambella-ethiopia-south-sudan

08-22-2016, 09:18 PM
Hat tip to WoTR for David Ucko's article on peacekeeping in South Sudan and its many problems:http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/south-sudan-and-the-perils-of-americas-peacekeeping-policy/

IMHO it is not just the USA that is at fault, many share some responsibility, but above all it is South Sudan's failure - after decades of war to get independence - to want peace enough.

As for the promised and declared 'robust peacekeeping' well the UN's record in Africa is not robust.

06-24-2018, 09:15 AM
A rare article on this country and IMHO a key passage offers an explanation why:
James Okuk, a political analyst at Juba University, sees a more fundamental issue driving the violence, arguing that the long history of war has created “a psychology of military power”. “It’s the attitude of the leaders that is letting people down. They are not prepared to build a state or a nation. They got used to staying in power and enjoying privileges of being in government. They can’t envision a good life outside. It is about them being either in government or there being no South Sudan. “So they have got themselves into this unnecessary struggle where everyone wants to be in the government and be in power and so get a free ride.”

The full title is: Born out of brutality, South Sudan, the world’s youngest state, drowns in murder, rape and arson.

11-05-2018, 12:33 PM
A book review by Jason Burke; the author is a BBC reporter who was based in country. A tragedy after independence.