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SWJED
05-13-2007, 08:35 PM
13 May Washington Post commentary - Ethiopia's Iraq (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/11/AR2007051102114.html) by David Ignatius.


"Get it done quickly and get out." That, says a senior U.S. diplomat here, was the goal of the little-noticed war that Ethiopia has been fighting, with American support, against Islamic extremists in Somalia. But this in-and-out strategy encounters the same real-world obstacles that America is facing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Conflict is less the problem than what comes after it. That's the dilemma that America and its allies are discovering in a world where war-fighting and nation-building have become perversely mixed. It took the Ethiopians just a week to drive a Muslim radical movement known as the Islamic Courts from Mogadishu in December. The hard part wasn't chasing the enemy from the capital but putting the country back together...

Culpeper
06-02-2007, 03:31 PM
By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) - At least one U.S. warship bombarded a remote, mountainous village in Somalia where Islamic militants had set up a base, officials in the northern region of Puntland said Saturday. (http://apnews.myway.com//article/20070602/D8PGO9AG0.html)

SWJED
06-03-2007, 09:48 AM
3 June Washington Post - U.S. Warship Fires Missiles at Fighters in Somalia (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/02/AR2007060200194.html) by Stephanie McCrummen.


A U.S. Navy destroyer launched an attack on foreign fighters in a remote corner of northeastern Somalia late Friday, according to a senior U.S. official, though details of the operation remained sketchy.

The bombardment was concentrated in and around the port town of Bargaal, the official said Saturday, speaking on condition of anonymity because the information is classified...

SWJED
06-14-2007, 05:34 PM
14 June Power and Interest News Report - Somalia Continues its Political Collapse (http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=659&language_id=1) by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein.


... Somalia's weak and internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) continues to be a severely impaired participant in the country's multiple conflicts, facing a chronic insurgency in its official capital Mogadishu; unrest, lawlessness and failing control in the country's regions; and inadequate funding from international donors, on which it depends for its financial survival. Ethiopia, on which the T.F.G. depends for military protection, has been over-strained financially and is anxious to withdraw its forces, yet their replacement by an 8,000 member African Union (A.U.) peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) has yet to materialize, except for a contingent of 1,500 Ugandan troops, which have withdrawn to guard duty at Mogadishu's airport and seaport, and at government facilities, after one of its convoys was attacked on May 16.

Despite efforts by the T.F.G. to gain control of Mogadishu through a crackdown on armed opposition, closure of independent media outlets and arrests of leaders of the Hawiye clan, which is distrustful of the Darod-dominated T.F.G., the city remains insecure. Although donor states and international organizations have edged toward providing the T.F.G. with greater financial support, the transitional authority still lacks the resources to govern...

SWJED
07-28-2007, 08:46 AM
28 July BBC - Eritrea 'Arming' Somali Militia (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6918582.stm).


Insurgents in Somalia have received huge numbers of weapons in secret shipments from Eritrea, the UN says.

There are now more arms in Somalia than at any time since the civil war started in 1991, the UN report says.

Eritrea, which has repeatedly denied aiding the insurgents, dismissed the report as a "total fabrication"...

Beelzebubalicious
07-28-2007, 11:25 AM
It's worth reading the UN monitoring report in full. There's some interesting information in here. I like the statement by Zalmay Khalilazad on behalf of the US Government that the US conducted several strikes in self defense against Al Qaida operatives and that these attacks didn't violate the "plain meaning" of the UN Security Council Resolution requiring a "general and complete embargo on all deliveries of weapons and military equipment to Somalia".

Here's a link to the full Somalia Monitoring report:
http://www.eritreadaily.net/News0307/RPRTSOMMNGRP.pdf

there's also some good analysis and interview on VOA with Timothy Othieno, a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Midrand, South Africa. He basically states that there is a proxy war being fought in Somalia between Ethiopia and Eritrea and that it stems from the unresolved border dispute (mainly the issue of the return of Badme to Eritrea) and that the UN (and by extension, international community) is to blame for not enforcing the border ruling.

http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2007-07-27-voa27.cfm

Jedburgh
08-13-2007, 07:49 PM
HRW, 13 Aug 07: Shell-Shocked: Civilians Under Siege in Mogadishu (http://hrw.org/reports/2007/somalia0807/somalia0807webwcover.pdf)

...The conflict in Mogadishu in 2007 involves Ethiopian and Somali government forces against a coalition of insurgent groups. It is a conflict that has been marked by numerous violations of international humanitarian law that have been met with a shameful silence and inaction on the part of key foreign governments and international institutions.

Violations of the laws of war documented in this report include the deployment of insurgent forces in densely populated neighborhoods and the widespread, indiscriminate bombardment of these areas by Ethiopian forces. The deliberate nature of these bombardments, evidence of criminal intent, strongly suggests the commission of war crimes....

Sarajevo071
09-13-2007, 05:15 PM
For those who know Arabic and wish to know...


Interesting al-Jazeera video of the Mujahideen fighting in Somalia... Nearly at the end you can see a video of a Muslim fighter from America fighting side by side with his Somali brothers.

http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/streams/2007/9/12/1_719191_1_12.wmv

tequila
10-17-2007, 03:07 PM
UN World Food Programme office stormed in Mogadishu by government forces (http://allafrica.com/stories/200710170626.html).



Dozens of heavily armed government security officials detained the head of the World Food Programme (WFP) office in Mogadishu, Somalia, on 17 October, an act decried by the UN organisation as a violation of international law.

In a statement, WFP called for "the immediate release of Mr Idris Osman, WFP's officer-in-charge of our Mogadishu office, who was taken at gunpoint by the Somali National Security Service (NSS) after the storming of a UN compound in Mogadishu this morning at 0815 local time by 50-60 heavily armed and uniformed members of the NSS.

"Mr Osman is being held in a cell at NSS headquarters near the presidential palace. WFP has not received any explanation for this action, which violates international law. International law also bars authorities from entering UN premises without prior UN permission," the statement said ...

Tom Odom
10-17-2007, 03:58 PM
UN World Food Programme office stormed in Mogadishu by government forces (http://allafrica.com/stories/200710170626.html).

Why I love Somalia...

Let me count the ways...

Rex Brynen
11-20-2007, 04:54 AM
New York Times
Somalia Worst Humanitarian Crisis in Africa, U.N. Says (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/20/world/africa/20somalia.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin)


AFGOOYE, Somalia, Nov. 19 — The worst humanitarian crisis in Africa may not be unfolding in Darfur, but here, along a 20-mile strip of busted-up asphalt, several top United Nations officials said.

A year ago, the road between the market town of Afgooye and the capital of Mogadishu was just another typical Somali byway, lined with overgrown cactuses and the occasional bullet-riddled building. Now it is a corridor teeming with misery, with 200,000 recently displaced people crammed into swelling camps that are rapidly running out of food.

...

Top United Nations officials who specialize in Somalia said the country had higher malnutrition rates, more current bloodshed and fewer aid workers than Darfur, which is often publicized as the world’s most pressing humanitarian crisis and has taken clear priority in terms of getting peacekeepers and aid money.

The relentless urban combat in Mogadishu, between an unpopular transitional government — installed partially with American help — and a determined Islamist insurgency, has driven waves of desperate people up the Afgooye road, where more than 70 camps of twigs and plastic have popped up seemingly overnight.

tequila
11-20-2007, 12:17 PM
Something tells me that the Ethiopians will soon be knocking on Washington's door, looking for some kind of deal like the Pakistani Army is receiving now. Given a possible war with Eritrea, current "counterinsurgency" in the Ogaden, and brewing urban guerrilla war in Somalia, the Ethiopians will be in search of handouts. One wonders if we will be as recklessly generous as we have been with the Pakistani military --- thankfully the Ethiopians don't have a nuclear project or two to enable.

SteveMetz
11-20-2007, 12:24 PM
Something tells me that the Ethiopians will soon be knocking on Washington's door, looking for some kind of deal like the Pakistani Army is receiving now. Given a possible war with Eritrea, current "counterinsurgency" in the Ogaden, and brewing urban guerrilla war in Somalia, the Ethiopians will be in search of handouts. One wonders if we will be as recklessly generous as we have been with the Pakistani military --- thankfully the Ethiopians don't have a nuclear project or two to enable.

FMF to Ethiopia has been declining (http://www.state.gov/t/pm/64657.htm) recently with IMET increasingly slightly. I think you hit the nail on the head--there are four things that generate extensive security assistance from the United States: 1) having a significant AQ presence; 2) having nukes; 3) producing narcotics; 4) being Israel or a threat to Israel.

From Ethiopia's perspective, that's 0 for 4. But maybe the creation of AFRICOM will help.

Mark O'Neill
11-20-2007, 12:36 PM
FMF to Ethiopia has been declining (http://www.state.gov/t/pm/64657.htm) recently with IMET increasingly slightly. I think you hit the nail on the head--there are four things that generate extensive security assistance from the United States: 1) having a significant AQ presence; 2) having nukes; 3) producing narcotics; 4) being Israel or a threat to Israel.

From Ethiopia's perspective, that's 0 for 4. But maybe the creation of AFRICOM will help.

Target Round, out.

tequila
11-20-2007, 12:38 PM
I think they will strain to provide (1) as much as possible. Worked during the invasion in 2006, after all.

Beelzebubalicious
11-20-2007, 12:50 PM
Maybe someone can help me understand something here. When the ICU was in power, they were fundamentalists who installed Sharia Law. I understand that there were extremist elements of the ICU who supported terrorism. To what extent were the extremists opposed/supported by the broader ICU? I want to break down and differentiate Islamic Fundamentalism and Islamic extremism/terrorism.

In terms of stability and security, was a fundamentalist Islamic state under ICU better than the umpteen transitional governments that have ruled in the last 15 years?

wm
11-20-2007, 12:57 PM
In terms of stability and security, was a fundamentalist Islamic state under ICU better than the umpteen transitional governments that have ruled in the last 15 years?

Not if one thinks that the only appropriate connection between church and state is a Christian connection (and that Christianity can probably be more narrowly defined as some subspecies of fundamental Protestantism that looks a lot like early Calvinism).

Tom Odom
11-20-2007, 03:10 PM
Target Round, out.

Repeat, over.

abduljrus
12-05-2007, 05:16 AM
It could get really worse their if he dies or somehow becomes incapable of performing his duties. It will be just going back to 2003 again. May be we will see the rise of the Islamist Militias again as the real power in Somalia.

Whatever the case, I think its tragic for my homeland.

Beelzebubalicious
12-05-2007, 12:40 PM
I thought he just had a "bad cold" and was just going for a "check up" and that he was just "delegating" his meeting with Rice (first time a secretary of state has traveled to region in last decade) to the new PM....I don't know what's going on, but I would assume he is either very sick or he does not want to meet with Rice. Your message seems to indicate that he his, indeed, sick.

What do you think of the new PM, Nur Hassan Hussein? Any chance that he can keep things together?

I've met some Somalis during my time in Eritrea and Ethiopia and have certainly followed events in your country with concern. I do hope for your sake and for the sake of the Somali people, that there can be some peace and stability. If President Yusuf is the key, then I really hope he gets better.

abduljrus
12-06-2007, 03:57 AM
News came out today that he had bronchitis...

As for Somalia, Well... I have become emotionally numb to the situation. I have suffered through the Civil war, I have been a refugee. Trust me, it sucks to sleep when you have not eaten or have not drunk anything for the last 2 weeks. you don't want to be a refugee.

I have come to the United States around Feb. 01' and ever since, I have just become too attached sometimes and other times i have become too numb to care. You know, there are times when you just become too tired. when your hopes are dashed too many times, when you no longer.... care. Not in the sense that I don't care because of (put whatever reason here) but I Just can't deal with it anymore emotionally. I must try to live my life now. And I am one of the lucky ones. at least I don't have to sleep trying to ignore AK-47 shots anymore.

JJackson
12-28-2007, 06:30 PM
I could not find it on the map but it seems a very strange move on the part of the Ethiopians if it is strategically positioned on a main supply/escape route. (The second link is to a good selection of maps on University of Texas' site)

Ethiopia leaves key Somali town

The Ethiopians are not popular in Somalia
Ethiopian troops have withdrawn from a key town in central Somalia.
Islamist insurgents say they now control Guriel, where Ethiopia had a big military base to secure the road linking the two countries.

A BBC correspondent in Somalia says it is not clear why the Ethiopian troops withdrew without any fighting.

Guriel was a stronghold of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which lost power to Ethiopian-backed government troops a year ago this week.

The BBC's Ayanleh Hussein in Guriel says residents have been cheering the Ethiopians' departure.

During the occupation the local hospital was out of use as it was used as the Ethiopians' military base, he says.

Meanwhile, unrest continues in the capital, Mogadishu, where most Ethiopian forces in the country have been based since last year's invasion, which ended the UIC's six-month rule.

The bodies of four civilians were discovered after battles between insurgents and Ethiopian troops on Thursday around the animal market in the north of the city.

Somalia has been politically fragmented since 1991 and the country's transitional government, faced with an insurgency, is dependent on international aid and Ethiopian military support.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7162957.stm

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/somalia.html

Beelzebubalicious
12-28-2007, 06:52 PM
Well, Ethiopia has admitted it can't fight a war on 3 fronts and Eritrea recently accused Ethiopia of attacking some of their military forces on the border. Hmmm...

JJackson
12-28-2007, 08:14 PM
I hope you are right and they will withdraw returning Somalia to the UIC/ALS but if they are to withdraw it would make a lot more sense to do it from the end of your supply line in an orderly fashion back to your boarders - not give up a position between you and home - unless it is a trap to get the ALS to commit assets to a fixed location.

davidbfpo
12-29-2007, 06:20 PM
A quick point the old country of Somalia is no more. In the north east and essentially the old British Somaliland is a separate country, albeit not recognized by the UN or AU. Last time I looked it was stable and leaning towards a democracy.

davidbfpo

abduljrus
01-06-2008, 04:57 AM
A quick point the old country of Somalia is no more. In the north east and essentially the old British Somaliland is a separate country, albeit not recognized by the UN or AU. Last time I looked it was stable and leaning towards a democracy.

davidbfpo

i think you are exaggerating that "split" factor. Puntland and Somaliland are making it on their own because there is no government and the Somali federal charter allows for one or more states to form regional governments so once the 2009 elections happen, their will be or can be easily integrated and they will benefit for a federal state.

they are split along clan lines now and even then, they are split along sub clan lines and it still split along sub sub clans. so i am not sure how solid these unions are.

and the current "president" of somaliland has been there since forever, arrested journalist, killed opposition and even one time banned it. you call that democracy?

JJackson
03-03-2008, 10:37 AM
Islamist spokesman Sheikh Mukhtar Robow said the US was trying to hit Islamist hideouts in the area.

"The Americans bombed the town and hit civilians targets thinking that they were Islamist hideouts. They used an AC-130 plane," he told the AFP news agency.

Local official Ali Hussein told the BBC that many people were fleeing the town.

The border with Kenya has been closed for the past year.


Full story http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7274462.stm

Rex Brynen
03-28-2008, 10:03 PM
Somalia sinks into greater chaos as Islamist insurgents gain ground (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/28/africa/somalia.php), International Herald Tribune, 28 March 2008.


The trouble started when government soldiers went to the market and, at gunpoint, began helping themselves to sacks of grain.

Islamist insurgents poured into the streets to defend the merchants. The government troops got hammered, taking heavy casualties and retreating all the way back to the presidential palace, supposedly the most secure place in the city. It, too, came under fire.

Mohamed Abdirizak, a top government official, crouched on a balcony at the palace, with bullets whizzing over his head. He had just given up a cushy life as a development consultant in Springfield, Virginia. His wife thought he was crazy. Sweat beaded on his forehead.

"I feel this slipping away," he said.

jcustis
03-29-2008, 05:02 PM
Islamist insurgents poured into the streets to defend the merchants. The government troops got hammered, taking heavy casualties and retreating all the way back to the presidential palace, supposedly the most secure place in the city. It, too, came under fire.

I have a problem with the use of language like this. We have Islamist and insurgent slapped together so casually, and both have become part of popular terminology and carry a certain meaning to perhaps 75% of the general American population out there...Yet in this case it would appear that the "Islamic insurgents" did a bit of good against some heavy hands. It's a new story so I read it with a grain of sand, but Somalia is all at once terribly complex and yet so simple (the economics of hunger driving violence quicker than ####).

Even with the arrival on stage of the Ethiopians, the remainder of the story reads just like Mogadishu circa May 1994, when I was watching that place fall further apart with my own eyes.

I don't know, maybe the "Islamists" can be the only ones to get things right, but you will never, ever be able to find one faction, tribe, or religious side that can do so without resorting to the way of the gun. We might as well get used to the fact that it is going to came as a result of violence. We need to get the engagement piece figured out, and spend more time drafting the operational risk management worksheet on this one, with a focus on mitigation. Realize however, that the overall risk factor remains EXTREME, and just deal with it.

Rant hat off:wry:

Beelzebubalicious
04-20-2008, 05:07 PM
This was just posted in the latest edition of Newsweek. A pretty provocative sub-title, but clearly, the author wants to send a message. Not sure anyone is listening, though.

Dilemmas of the Horn

Washington wanted to keep Somalia from turning into another Afghanistan. Now it's an African Iraq.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/131836

JJackson
05-01-2008, 10:03 AM
Air raid kills Somali militants

The leader of the military wing of an Islamist insurgent organisation in Somalia has been killed in an overnight air strike.

Aden Hashi Ayro, al-Shabab's military commander, died when his home in the central town of Dusamareb was bombed.

Ten other people, including a senior militant, are also reported dead.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7376760.stm

JJackson
05-06-2008, 08:25 AM
Somali troops 'out of control' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7385078.stm)


Somali government troops are out of control, as are their Ethiopian allies and other armed groups says human right's group Amnesty International.

It says the situation is "dire" in central and southern Somalia, with civilians completely at the mercy of armed groups on all sides.

JJackson
05-23-2008, 04:52 PM
Peacekeepers sell arms to Somalis (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7417435.stm)


Ugandan peacekeepers in Somalia have been selling arms to insurgents, a United Nations report says.

The report, by the UN monitoring group on the Somali arms embargo, says Ethiopia, Eritrea and Yemen are also breaking the embargo.

It cites one incident in which a group of Ugandan soldiers allegedly received $80,000 for a transaction

That bridge plan has been around for a while but a quick look at the map leaves you wondering just how much qaat these guys have been chewing. A mind bogglingly expensive bridge joining two bits of desert with no obvious demand or infrastructure at either end. The main takers for trips across this strip of water seem to be illegal African economic migrants or possibly Muslims on their way to fight the infidels.

Ron Humphrey
05-23-2008, 04:58 PM
Peacekeepers sell arms to Somalis (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7417435.stm)



The main takers for trips across this strip of water seem to be illegal African economic migrants or possibly Muslims on their way to fight the infidels.

Lord knows they wouldn't want to interrupt those particular supply lines:(

davidbfpo
05-25-2008, 10:15 PM
In today's UK Mail on Sunday, by an excellent journalist, Aidan Hartley, who contributes to (UK) The Spectator and lives in NE Kenya: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/moslive/article-1020934/The-terror-Tescos-finest--forklift-driver-Leicester-Somalias-feared-general.html

davidbfpo

Jedburgh
12-23-2008, 08:06 PM
ICG, 23 Dec 08: Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/horn_of_africa/147_somalia___to_move_beyond_the_failed_state.pdf)

Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military interven-tion since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world’s worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom – the piracy phenomenon (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5621) – instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credi-ble political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors – including the U.S. and Ethiopia – accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.....
Complete 45-page paper at the link.

Tom Odom
09-21-2009, 07:28 AM
After the successful hit on the Al Quaeda, the response covered on SWJ Bog ranged from the ecstatic to the dismissive with:


US Kills Top Qaeda Leader in Southern Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/09/)

U.S. Kills Top Qaeda Militant in Southern Somalia (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/15/world/africa/15raid.html?_r=2&ref=world)
NAIROBI, Kenya — American commandos killed one of the most wanted Islamic militants in Africa in a daylight raid in southern Somalia on Monday, according to American and Somali officials, an indication of the Obama administration’s willingness to use combat troops strategically against Al Qaeda’s growing influence in the region.

and


Somalia strike and offshore balancing (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/09/recent-small-wars-journal-them/)

A helicopter-borne U.S. special operations group, apparently operating from a U.S. warship in the Indian Ocean, attacked and killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan along with several of his associates along a road in southern Somalia. According to the cited New York Times article, the U.S. special operations soldiers recovered the bodies and presumably other interesting intelligence products from the site.

and


Alternate View: Somalia Strike and Offshore Balancing (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/09/alternate-view-somalia-strike/)

OK, I’ll take the bait.

To offer the killing of Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan as evidence of the success of a strategy of “offshore balancing” would be myopic in the extreme. By press accounts, it was a very well conducted SEAL raid, but let’s not confuse good tactics with good strategy.

Let’s begin with U.S. strategy toward Somalia. Since the withdrawal from Mogadishu in the wake of the “Black Hawk Down” incident – and let’s remember why this was Osama bin Laden’s favorite movie, an exemplar of America the “weak horse,” unable to run the course – keeping that failed state from becoming an al Qaeda haven has been a very narrowly run thing, at best.

Personally I found the following to be closer to the mark:


Black Hawk’s Shadow (http://www.newsweek.com/id/215489)
Why we don't care about Somalia anymore.

Picture Mogadishu in 1992. Marauding militias loyal only to Somali clan leaders stalk the city, looting aid shipments bound for the 1.8 million Somalis facing starvation. Then, from the green-blue Indian Ocean waters, there materializes a flotilla of U.S. transports bearing aid and armed men to deliver it. In the skies overhead, U.S. attack helicopters appear, providing cover for food shipments, while an American spy plane circles the city night and day gathering intelligence on militias trying to disrupt the rescue effort.

Flash forward 17 years to the same city, still surrounded by squalid refugee camps. More than twice as many Somalis are now teetering on the brink of starvation in what many view as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Militias of heavily armed young men still stalk the city hijacking aid shipments. This time, though, no one's coming to the rescue.

Somalia is in dire straits—maybe worse than ever. An estimated 3.8 million need humanitarian aid (fully half the population), according to the U.N.'s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia, which calls the crisis the worst since 1991–92. In the past six months alone, the number of people forced from their homes by fighting—between the country's barely functional transitional government and Islamist insurgents—has grown by 40 percent, to 1.4 million. Most live in squalid camps that a new report from Oxfam calls "barely fit for humans."

So why don't we care anymore? The answer lies not only in how the giant U.S.-U.N. mission to Somalia came undone—in the ashes of the Black Hawk Down firefight in October 1993—but in a legacy of failures by both Somali and Western leaders to cure the country's ills.

Jedburgh
10-13-2009, 10:29 PM
ASPI, 13 Oct 09: Understanding the al-Shabaab Networks (http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=226&pubtype=-1)

The decision by the Australian Government on 21 August 2009 to officially list the al-Shabaab group as a terrorist organisation highlights a subject of growing concern in many Western governments: what is the danger posed by the Somali-based group, and is it merely a regional actor? The question is one of growing salience as stories increasingly surface of young Western (or Westernised) men leaving their homes to fight and train with the Islamic warriors in Somalia. Furthermore, the growing parallels with the ‘chain of terror’ that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown highlighted, emanating from Pakistan’s lawless provinces through Europe’s Muslim communities, mean fears are growing that it might result in a terrorist attack on the scale of the Madrid or London bombings.

This article outlines the growing sense of apparent threat in the West from networks linked in some way to al-Shabaab. It offers some brief thoughts on the growing links between what are herein termed ’the Shabaab networks’ and whether the threat from them is one than can be paralleled with the threat from the similarly structured al-Qaeda networks.
ISS, 3 Jun 09: Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab (http://www.iss.co.za/dynamic/administration/file_manager/file_links/SABAAB040609.PDF?link_id=3&slink_id=7748&link_type=12&slink_type=13&tmpl_id=3)

On 8 May 2009, Al-Shabaab reinforced by a faction of Hizbul Islam and former Islamic Courts Union’s (ICU) leader Sheikh Aweys began what they claimed was a final assault on the capital Mogadishu in an attempt to destroy President Sheikh Sharif’s fragile National Unity Government. A wave of targeted assassinations of ICU officials and Al-Shabaab commanders in mid-April onwards, the reshuffling of military and political alliances among Islamist factions and inflammatory rhetoric that has led to a polarization of political positions has all but eliminated prospects for reconciliation between the government and the opposition.

At the time of writing the government is managing to keep hold of southern Mogadishu. Nevertheless Al-Shabaab continues to gain ground in central Somalia and is positioning itself for what it hopes will be a decisive military victory.

This report briefly examines the nature of Al-Shabaab’s ideological stance, their political ambitions and why this movement constitutes the gravest threat to the survival of Sheikh Sharif’s government and the Djibouti peace process that gave it birth.
NEFA, 5 May 09: Shabaab al-Mujahideen: Migration and Jihad in the Horn of Africa (http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/nefashabaabreport0509.pdf)

Part I: The Early Years - Al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI) and “Blackhawk Down”

Part II: Ethiopia and the Ogaden War (1993-1997)

Part III: The Islamic Courts Union (ICU)

Part IV: Rise of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement

Part V: The Current Status of Shabaab and its Islamist Rivals

Part VI: The Role of Foreign Fighters

Part VII: Shabaab’s Propaganda Strategy and Media Infrastructure

Part VIII: Shabaab al-Mujahideen and the Issue of Ocean Piracy

Jedburgh
10-28-2009, 04:10 PM
MEQ, Fall 09: The Strategic Challenge of Somalia's Al-Shabaab: Dimensions of Jihad (http://www.meforum.org/2486/somalia-al-shabaab-strategic-challenge)

Since emerging from an era of colonialism under Italy and Britain, Somalia has passed through military dictatorship, famine, and civil war to regional fragmentation. In the modern period, Americans best remember the loss of U.S. military personnel that followed attempts to secure order in the country as part of a United Nations operation. More recently, the hijacking of ships by pirates operating from the Somali coast has attracted considerable attention globally. But the biggest threat emanating from Somalia comes from a different source: An ongoing lack of internal order has left the country vulnerable to the rise of hard-line Islamist groups, of which the latest is Al-Shabaab (the youth), which rose from obscurity to international prominence in less than two years. Al-Shabaab's ideological commitment to global jihadism, its connections to Al-Qaeda, its military capabilities, and its ability to capture and control territory suggest that it will continue to pose a strategic challenge to both the U.S. and Somalia's neighbors.

Since its emergence, Al-Shabaab has played a major role in the insurgency that pushed Ethiopian forces out of Somalia; it also received the endorsement of Osama bin Laden and has seen large numbers of Somalis living in the West flock to its camps. Somalia has become, like Pakistan, a significant Al-Qaeda safe haven. Due to the relatively large number of Americans who travel to Somalia for military training, individuals linked to Al-Shabaab are among the top U.S. domestic terrorist threats.....

davidbfpo
12-16-2009, 10:39 PM
A lot of developments with Somali male youths leaving Western homes (Canada, Denmark, Italy and USA) for the delights of Mogadishu. Here are some pieces by one analyst: http://icsr.info/blog/Somalias-foreign-legions#comments; earlier: http://raffaellopantucci.wordpress.com/2009/12/04/american-jihad/ and http://raffaellopantucci.wordpress.com/2009/10/13/understanding-the-al-shabaab-networks/

Some of which has been covered IIRC on other threads.

davidbfpo
02-02-2010, 11:42 PM
We and the media focus on the piracy off the Somalia coast, no doubt as it is safer to report on and few reporters venture into Somalia today. Here is an exception a grim report on the people trapped there and seeking to leave - for the "settled" north aka as Somaliland and beyond. Now if this could be used in Info Ops against Al-Shabaab on You Tube plus - to show what their rule means I would applaud.

The link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/31/shabaab-somalia-islamic-militia-refugees - with a six minute video (yes not guaranteed to be viewable).

davidbfpo
02-02-2010, 11:44 PM
Moderators Note

I have combined several small threads on non-piracy aspects of Somalia just as it makes sense.

davidbfpo
02-08-2010, 09:45 PM
A report from a forgotten frontier Kenya with Somalia:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201002080323.html


The Islamic administration of Al-Shabaab that controls Somalia's southern regions of Jubba has on Sunday declared holy war on Kenya over reports that Nairobi is training Somali troops.

IIRC the Northern Frontier District of Kenya is mainly Somali and nomadic cattle-driven economy, rather prone to disputes and poor. See this thin entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Eastern_Province_(Kenya)

Who are Kenya's allies? The "Usual Suspects" the UK and USA.

Watch and wait to see if rhetoric is matched with actions.

davidbfpo
03-01-2010, 09:15 PM
I trust someone will use this apparent decision by Al-Shabaab to bar UN food supplies to Somalia as an illustration of the care for the masses Al-Shabaab shows.

The report:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/01/AR2010030100468.html?wprss=rss_world/wires


On Sunday, al-Shabab said it would prohibit the U.N.'s World Food Program from distributing food in areas under its control because it says the food undercuts farmers selling recently harvested crops.

It also accused the agency of handing out food unfit for human consumption and of secretly supporting "apostates," or those who have renounced Islam.

I wonder how much local food is being produced and from faraway will it be enough?

davidbfpo
03-02-2010, 08:42 PM
Self-explanatory and occurred in Puntland (from a large scale map):http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8545485.stm


New land tactics being employed by Somali pirates may be a cause for concern, a UN spokesman told the BBC. Peter Smerdon said three trucks and their drivers were being held in the pirate town of Eyl after delivering food aid last week in central Somalia.

No wonder Somalis want to exit and WFP has problems getting funding. Will Somalia be the first country to have no people?

SWJ Blog
04-01-2010, 01:20 PM
AEI Somalia Online Briefing (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/04/aei-somalia-online-briefing/)

From SWJ Blog (with fuller details)

Via E-mail: Please join American Enterprise Institute (http://www.aei.org/) Resident Scholar, and Director of the Critical Threats Project (http://www.criticalthreats.org/), Frederick W. Kagan (http://www.aei.org/scholar/99) on Monday, April 5, 2010 from 1:30 to 2:30 pm for a live online video briefing on the terror threat from Somalia (http://www.criticalthreats.org/somalia). Also contributing to the discussion will be Critical Threats Analyst Christopher Harnisch (http://www.criticalthreats.org/users/charnisch) who will discuss the Somali terror group al Shabaab.

While American efforts to combat international terrorism continue to focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, other regions have become safe havens for militant Islamist groups. This terror threat became a reality when an operative of an al Qaeda franchise based in Yemen tried to blow up a Detroit-bound plane with nearly three hundred people on board, on Christmas Day 2009.

Today, a terror threat is growing in Somalia, across from Yemen on the Gulf of Aden. A militant Islamist group called al Shabaab (resembling a hybrid of al Qaeda and the Taliban) has explicitly threatened to attack the United States. This terror group has established radical Islamist administrations that govern large parts of southern Somalia – more territory than any other militant Islamist group in the world. It operates terrorist training camps, views itself as part of the global jihad led by Osama bin Laden, has dozens of operatives from the United States and Europe, and has followed through on previous threats made against Somali targets. The threat posed by al Shabaab is real and imminent, and Americans should not be surprised if the group tries to attack the U.S.

AdamG
05-25-2010, 04:44 PM
BERLIN — A private security firm's plan to deploy more than 100 German ex-soldiers to Somalia to work for a warlord has triggered intense media coverage and was harshly criticized by lawmakers on Tuesday, some of them calling it a possible violation of U.N. sanctions against the war-ridden East African country.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gI8DYG23-9xtsFE5vN53gkQC6aFwD9FTTBR81

"Hurry up, Tommy, before zee Germans get here". - Turkish, SNATCH

JJackson
06-23-2010, 01:35 PM
I would be interested in what the rest of you think.
It is very close to my position, which is not always quite how other council members see things.

Somalia - A new approach (http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Somalia_CSR52.pdf) by Bronwyn Bruton

Ken White
06-23-2010, 01:52 PM
monograph. The American penchant for 'fixing' things is not at all helpful in many cases...

dangcox
07-11-2010, 06:07 AM
Finally! A punitive strike aimed at dealing with the piracy problem. But I fear there will be no follow through and eventually a "hearts and minds" argument will be made by someone in power resulting in a large-scale humanitarian/nation-building/stability operation.

Given the extremely low opinion Somalis have for Americans after it has been wrongly interpreted by many Somali citizens that the US government supported the Ethiopian seizure of Mogadishu in 2008 (which eventually helped to solidify Al Shabab as a major player there), I think any major operation in Somalia should be pretty easy (can one be sarcastic in a blog post?)

Yours

DC

JarodParker
07-12-2010, 07:09 PM
New al-Qaida threat: Somali group claims blasts (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100712/ap_on_re_af/af_uganda_explosions)

KAMPALA, Uganda – East Africa saw the emergence of a new international terrorist group Monday, as Somalia's most dangerous al-Qaida-linked militia claimed responsibility for the twin bombings in Uganda that killed 74 people during the World Cup.
The claim by al-Shabab, whose fighters are trained by militant veterans of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, resets the security equation in East Africa and has broader implications worldwide. The group in the past has recruited Somali-Americans to carry out suicide bombings in Mogadishu.

Also, a Current TV documentary on US-born Al-shaba commander Omar Hammami... Vanguard (http://current.com/shows/vanguard/92520672_recruiting-young-muslims-from-the-west-scenes-from-vanguard.htm)

dangcox
07-13-2010, 03:05 PM
JarodParker,

This is a very interesting development and I am afraid one that might eventually lead to a large-scale military intervention. The fear for a while now has been that Al Shabab would begin operations outside of Somalia. Kenya was the most likely target according to experts but the Uganda attack makes a lot of sense given the number of troops from Uganda intervening in Somalia.

I am growing increasingly worried that this or a number of other triggers are developing that will prompt a president to intervene again in Somalia. Please note I am not advocating sitting on our hands in the Somalia case. My fear revolves around the proclivity for the response to be pre-ordained as a large-scale coin or stability operation. There are other options which need to be considered, and in my opinion, implemented first.

Cheers

DC

JarodParker
07-15-2010, 12:09 AM
Hey DC,

I doubt the US (or any other western nation) will undertake a large scale military intervention in Somalia due to the lack of national will, the strain our military is currently under and the cost associated with such operations. Not to mention the incident from 1993. Ethiopia would probably be the most ideal target for AS since the government there isn’t too shy about antagonizing them. Even one of the locations of Sunday’s attack in Uganda was an Ethiopian restaurant. But I guess the regime in Addis has the country locked down pretty tight (fingers crossed) for the terrorist resort to bombing softer targets elsewhere.

Anything that resembles large scale coin (ala OIF and OEF) doesn’t seem very likely to me. Instead, I see the US operating through proxies and orchestrating other activities that don’t require actual American boots on the ground. For instance, providing assistance to the “Somali government,” funding CT programs in neighboring countries, training frontier corps, police and military units in neighboring countries, patrolling the coast, etc. Maybe once in a while a HVT snatch like the one that took place a few months ago. For now this is Africa’s problem and as you suggested there are definitely options other than Operation Somali Freedom. Hopefully these options don’t end up propping evil regimes as well as making us new enemies.

Just my $.02

AdamG
07-22-2010, 12:18 AM
In something of a warning to all wannabe online mujahedeen, a 20-year-old student from northern Virginia was arrested today on charges of providing material support to al-Shabaab, the al-Qaida-aligned Somali extremist group.

Zachary Adam Chesser is the guy’s given name. But he went by several others: Abu Talhah, Abu Talhah Al-Amrikee. But Chesser’s highest profile appears to be online, where his sobriquets included TeachLearnFightDie and AlQuranWaAlaHadith. He posted on an apparently defunct blog called Themujahidblog.com and Revolutionmuslim.com, according to the affidavit of FBI Special Agent Mary Brandt Kinder, and he threatened the lives of the South Park creators for their portrayal of the prophet Mohammed. Searches for his uploaded videos led to the discovery of him getting pwned by one of the Jawa Report guys. (More on that below.)

Read More http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/07/student-online-terrorist-flunkie-arrested-in-virginia/#ixzz0uMjzds6f

JarodParker
07-22-2010, 04:08 AM
^ Interesting! We'll see if the charges stick?

Discussion of Somalia and Al-Shabab on last Sunday's Fareed Zakaria program. Skip to the 4:30min mark. Link (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/podcasts/fareedzakaria/site/2010/07/18/gps.podcast.0718.cnn)

More on the model central Somali town covered by Gettleman - Adado (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2010001366_somaliwarlord05.html)

M-A Lagrange
07-22-2010, 07:38 PM
Does anyone have any info on the somali army training by EU?
The attacks in Kampala may put an early end to such things. But it will certainly not generate a large scale western military intervention.

Rex Brynen
07-23-2010, 01:22 AM
It doesn't help, of course, that not all of the TFG troops are sure what side they are on, or necessarily care!

As I was saying.... :wry:


Guards for Somali Leader Join Islamists (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/23/world/africa/23somalia.html?_r=1&ref=global-home)

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MOHAMED IBRAHIM
New York Times, 22 July 2010

NAIROBI, Kenya — Somali officials acknowledged on Thursday that members of Somalia’s presidential guard had defected to the Shabab, the radical Islamist insurgent group that claimed responsibility for the recent bombings in Uganda that killed more than 70 people watching the final game of the World Cup.

The defection of some of the president’s best-trained men is the latest setback for Somalia’s beleaguered transitional government, which has lost important pieces of territory in the past few days. Insurgents are now 300 yards — a rifle shot away — from the presidential palace.

...

davidbfpo
07-23-2010, 10:55 PM
Tks to FP:
Guinea is ready to immediately deploy a battalion to Mogadishu to boost the troubled African Union peacekeeping force in the Somali capital, AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping said Friday.

Link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100723/wl_africa_afp/africanunionsummitsomaliaunrest

davidbfpo
07-25-2010, 10:52 AM
Does anyone have any info on the somali army training by EU?

MA,

Not sure about the EU training mission, although my recollection was that something was underway in Kenya.

Perhaps this NYT op ed's following paragraph explains why external training is not the answer, indeed maybe the "fuel" for the crisis:
Yet in the past 18 months, the international community has trained some 10,000 Somali soldiers to support this government, and American taxpayers have armed them. Seven or eight thousand of these troops have already deserted, taking their new guns with them. Indeed, Somalia’s Western-backed army is a significant source of Al Shabab’s weapons and ammunition, according to the United Nations Monitoring Group.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/opinion/25bruton.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

Alongside is Aidan Hartley's column on the Al Shabab leader, he is always worth reading and concludes:
What Mr. Roobow wants, as I witnessed on the road in Somalia, is a war against an alien enemy that will bring him international prestige and jihadi money before his group’s forces implode and his country’s people turn on him. The Uganda bombing is another reason the West has to find an intelligent diplomatic path out of Somalia’s crisis. A military backlash would give Mukhtar Roobow exactly the ammunition that he is looking for.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/opinion/25hartley.html?ref=opinion

JMA
07-31-2010, 09:26 AM
MA,

Not sure about the EU training mission, although my recollection was that something was underway in Kenya.

Perhaps this NYT op ed's following paragraph explains why external training is not the answer, indeed maybe the "fuel" for the crisis:

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/opinion/25bruton.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

Alongside is Aidan Hartley's column on the Al Shabab leader, he is always worth reading and concludes:

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/opinion/25hartley.html?ref=opinion

Where are the drones when we need them? Rather have a few of them than another few thousand Ugandan troops.

huskerguy7
08-01-2010, 06:42 AM
Does anyone have any info on the somali army training by EU?

I've came across a few articles that discuss it (here (http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/somalia/20100527.aspx) and here (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4647391&c=LAN&s=TOP))


MA,

Not sure about the EU training mission, although my recollection was that something was underway in Kenya.

I haven't heard anything about Kenya. However, the EU mission is taking place in Uganda. They plan to train 2,000 soldiers and police. The links above detail more information.

Also, recently, there has been a bolster in the AU Mission. Here is an interesting quote from Stratfor (PM me if you want it sent to you).


The 4,000 additional troops pledged to AMISOM will bring the force to a total of just over 10,000. The 2,000 soldiers from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development countries (Uganda most likely will be the country sending the troops) and the Guinean and Djiboutian troops will represent a significant increase to the 6,200-strong AMISOM force currently in Mogadishu. Of course, this assumes all the new soldiers make it there — something which cannot be taken for granted. The list of states that have reneged on pledges to send peacekeepers to Somalia since 2007 is longer than the list of countries that have actually followed through (Uganda and Burundi).

Also, since the bombing, Uganda has called for the mandate to be changed so Ugandan's can act more aggressively. More from Stratfor:


The AU did authorize an additional 4,000 peacekeepers for Somalia at the summit but left AMISOM’s mandate — which renders the force effectively a high-profile protection unit for areas under the control of the Western-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) — intact. Uganda, the largest contributor to AMISOM, responded by announcing that its troops in Mogadishu would begin acting more aggressively toward al Shabaab with a new interpretation of what qualifies as legitimate self-defense.

My opinion: I don't think the training is being done properly. As the article mentioned in the post above, troops are deserting and taking advantage of the services and weapons provided to them. If we want the training to succeed properly, I think that the trainers should be allowed to embed to a certain extent. This will require a heavier footprint, which has obvious negatives. However, embedded trainers would allow for more cooperation, better training, and possibly a more confident military. That's just an opinion though.

JMA
08-01-2010, 08:53 AM
My opinion: I don't think the training is being done properly. As the article mentioned in the post above, troops are deserting and taking advantage of the services and weapons provided to them. If we want the training to succeed properly, I think that the trainers should be allowed to embed to a certain extent. This will require a heavier footprint, which has obvious negatives. However, embedded trainers would allow for more cooperation, better training, and possibly a more confident military. That's just an opinion though.

With respect you need to start with the selection of the people to be trained. There is little point in training, arming and equipping Somalis only to have them desert with their weapons.

Hundreds of German-financed Somali police officers go missing (http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5852655,00.html)

U.S.-Trained Somali Troops Defect to Insurgency (http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_59673.shtml)

Then of course the following jaw dropper Finns Training Somali Troops in Uganda (http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2010/06/finns_training_somali_troops_in_uganda_1798376.htm l). The Finns have the credentials to train anyone for warfare in Africa?

The hard question must be asked as to whether US and European funders have learned nothing about working in developing (African) countries? This is all pretty close to rank incompetence.

JMA
08-02-2010, 06:55 AM
OK, so now we know what we are up against in Somalia.

Al Qaeda veterans now run Al Shabaab militia (http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Al%20Qaeda%20veterans%20now%20run%20Al%20Shabaab%2 0militia/-/2558/964388/-/2j92g1/-/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+kow-reading+(Kings+of+War-Reading)&utm_content=FaceBook)


The Islamists, mostly veterans of the Al Qaeda training camps of Afghanistan, now control the movement’s policy making organs and were directly responsible for ordering the Kampala bombings which announced the Al Shabaab’s arrival as an actor with a reach that extends beyond Somali territory.

davidbfpo
08-16-2010, 07:28 PM
An unexpected twist to the AU involvement in Somalia:
The African Union’s (AU) mission in Somalia could soon receive a boost, with reports suggesting South Africa may send troops to the troubled country. Themba Maseko, a spokesperson for the South African cabinet said that ministers would be meeting on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of troops from the South African Defence Force joining the mission in Somalia, to supplement the 5,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi that are currently in Mogadishu giving support to the fragile interim government there.

“It appears President Zuma will definitely give a nod to the AU's request for South African military support. The South African government will definitely seize the opportunity to show the continent that they are the big brothers,” said a government source quoted by the Guardian.

Not much more on the link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/jamie-munn/south-africa-poised-to-boost-au-troops-in-somalia?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=201210&utm_campaign=On-Demand_2010-08-16%2013:27

My recollection was that the SANDF do not have the capability to deploy much beyond a battalion group; perhaps our RSA members can add some facts?

M-A Lagrange
08-19-2010, 01:58 PM
Sudan to renew efforts to bring peace in Somalia

The Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed wrapped up a three-day visit to Khartoum where he had arrived on Monday for talks with President Omer Al-Bashir on Sudan’s efforts to reconcile the Islamist insurgents with the government.
"We need to Sudan’s important role to resolve the Somali crisis and the coming days will witness new developments and a Sudanese move to reunite the Somali parties and support the central government and the peaceful transfer of power," said President Sheikh Sharif before to leave Khartoum today.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36001

The roads of peace are like those of god to me: incomprehensible...

JMA
08-25-2010, 12:33 PM
Deadly battles continue in Somalia (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2010/08/201082581124673213.html)


The force has so far been able to do little more than guard the airport and port and shield Sharif Ahmed, the president.

OK, so what is (or should be) Plan B?

davidbfpo
08-25-2010, 07:38 PM
JMA,

The AU remains committed to the inviolability of national borders IIRC, so I doubt if there is any Plan B, let alone really hard thinking on the options.

My own armchair suggestion is that the AU will leave, after a suitable payment is made for "safe conduct". Will it be an undignified scuttle or not?

If the AU had naval capability it could use Plan N, sitting offshore and blockading the ports etc - not sure if that would have any impact, except on those starving. I doubt if the daily air supply of khat / qat has stopped, business is business.

Now a glass of wine.

JMA
08-26-2010, 02:13 AM
JMA,

The AU remains committed to the inviolability of national borders IIRC, so I doubt if there is any Plan B, let alone really hard thinking on the options.

My own armchair suggestion is that the AU will leave, after a suitable payment is made for "safe conduct". Will it be an undignified scuttle or not?

If the AU had naval capability it could use Plan N, sitting offshore and blockading the ports etc - not sure if that would have any impact, except on those starving. I doubt if the daily air supply of khat / qat has stopped, business is business.

Now a glass of wine.

Well the additional 2,000 troops to bring the AU contingent up to 8,000 have started to arrive. Well there could well be a sort of Dunkirk retreat through the port should it get to that. The question is should it be allowed to get to that?

As a point of departure I am really trying to understand what legitimacy the TFG has?

M-A Lagrange
08-26-2010, 07:16 AM
As a point of departure I am really trying to understand what legitimacy the TFG has?

JMA,

the UN said they are the good guys and they are the ones your taxes and mine are actually paying since more than a decade to rule the country from nice fancu hotels in Nairobi. What additional legitimacy are you looking for? :D

M-A

JMA
08-26-2010, 08:36 AM
JMA,

the UN said they are the good guys and they are the ones your taxes and mine are actually paying since more than a decade to rule the country from nice fancu hotels in Nairobi. What additional legitimacy are you looking for? :D

M-A

Well then let the tax payers who live in the countries whose leaders have installed this TFG foot the bill. You are not going to beat Al-Shabab with any number of (Christian) Ugandan troops by any stretch of the imagination.

M-A Lagrange
08-26-2010, 05:49 PM
Well then let the tax payers who live in the countries whose leaders have installed this TFG foot the bill. You are not going to beat Al-Shabab with any number of (Christian) Ugandan troops by any stretch of the imagination.

I am not sure the christianity has something to do in that sad story. The somali do fear like plague the Ethiopian and the Ethiopian are christians. The Shebaab waited the ethiopian to be gone before attacking.

Also, I just found on the site of the foreign legion that they do train somali soldiers. Somehow I wonder how far this will blow in our face. Remember the training made on ship security... Now they are pirates.

But JMA you are right, I do not understand why we waste money in entertaining a ghost government.

JMA
08-28-2010, 10:17 AM
I am not sure the christianity has something to do in that sad story. The somali do fear like plague the Ethiopian and the Ethiopian are christians. The Shebaab waited the ethiopian to be gone before attacking.

Also, I just found on the site of the foreign legion that they do train somali soldiers. Somehow I wonder how far this will blow in our face. Remember the training made on ship security... Now they are pirates.

But JMA you are right, I do not understand why we waste money in entertaining a ghost government.

Christianity has a lot to do with it as the Ethiopian Christians are seen as infidel invaders of a Muslim land. The current infidel "Christian" Ugandans are just just providing more grist to the Al Shabaab propaganda mill. If that were not reason justify violence enough then we would see issues arising between Shia and Sunni and in this case mix in the Sufis as well.

It is quite pointless to train people whose loyalty is in doubt and are likely to desert with weapons and equipment after training and join up with Al Shebaab. Actually it is not pointless it is criminally incompetent.

The only excuse these people have for wasting taxpayers is money like this is the standard reply "well you elected our boss the president".

M-A Lagrange
09-02-2010, 07:47 PM
Uganda Peoples Defence Forces soldiers carry a coffin at Entebbe airport,

Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010, of one the four soldiers that were killed in a mortar attack.
Uganda Peoples Defence Forces soldiers carry a coffin at Entebbe airport,Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010, of one the four soldiers that were killed in a mortar shell at the presidential palace in Somalia on Monday.

Uganda said Wednesday it is ready to send 10,000 more troops to Somalia if the U.S. provides the funding, a move that would see the African Union force in Mogadishu more than double in size.( AP)

Rex Brynen
09-02-2010, 08:39 PM
Well, we may need to combine the "piracy" and "not piracy" Somalia threads...


In Somali Civil War, Both Sides Embrace Pirates (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/02/world/africa/02pirates.html)

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
New York Times
Published: September 1, 2010



HOBYO, Somalia — Ismail Haji Noor, a local government official, recently arrived in this notorious pirate den with a simple message: we need your help.

With the Shabab militant group sweeping across Somalia and the American-backed central government teetering on life support, Mr. Noor stood on a beach flanked by dozens of pirate gunmen, two hijacked ships over his shoulder, and announced, “From now on we’ll be working together.”

He hugged several well-known pirate bosses and called them “brother” and later explained that while he saw the pirates as criminals and eventually wanted to rehabilitate them, right now the Shabab were a much graver threat.

“Squished between the two, we have to become friends with the pirates,” Mr. Noor said. “Actually, this is a great opportunity.”

For years, Somalia’s heavily armed pirate gangs seemed content to rob and hijack on the high seas and not get sucked into the messy civil war on land. Now, that may be changing, and the pirates are taking sides — both sides....

IntelTrooper
09-17-2010, 03:48 PM
UN envoy calls for thousands more troops to battle Somali militants (http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/africa/09/17/un.somalia.peacekeepers/index.html)



Somalia may need to triple its peacekeeping troops to 20,000 in the coming months to combat a surging threat by militants, a U.N. official said.

"The threat level in Mogadishu and in southern-central Somalia has actually increased," Augustine Mahiga told the U.N. Security Council on Thursday.

Mahiga said he is concerned about the security in the country and its impact in the region.

"A scaled up assistance from the international community is needed to make a difference," said Mahiga, the special envoy to Somalia.

JMA
09-19-2010, 08:24 PM
Who may I ask is running this war against the insurgents? And who should be paying the government forces or... who is stealing the money?

PM: Somalia to open 2nd front against insurgents (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g7OaI4_kjeHA-o4UhlmP7vlWmrrwD9IB3A880)


Kenya has a force of 2,000 Somali refugees stationed in northern Kenya, and Ethiopia trained a force of 1,000 fighters under a German-funded program.

davidbfpo
09-24-2010, 08:49 PM
A good, short FP Blog article, with a map, which gives context to the reporting, repeats the fact external actors train Somalis for the government and they defect:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/23/how_much_turf_does_the_somali_government_really_co ntrol?page=0,0


Some 9,000 troops have been trained and armed to help fortify the government, but desertion rates are astronomical. Perhaps no more than 1,000 soldiers -- or fewer -- remain. AMISOM peacekeepers, by contrast, number about 7,000.

JMA
09-25-2010, 07:59 AM
A good, short FP Blog article, with a map, which gives context to the reporting, repeats the fact external actors train Somalis for the government and they defect:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/23/how_much_turf_does_the_somali_government_really_co ntrol?page=0,0

Temporary loyalty to the highest bidder is similar to Afghanistan. But then that national characteristic has been known for ever. Now I wonder who the clowns were who thought they were really 'smart' and could ignore all that history? And of course what the 7,000 Ugandans are doing is a well kept secret... other than when they shelled the Bakara Market and killed a bunch of civvies. It is said they (AMISOM) are losing Mogadishu "one block at a time".

tequila
10-05-2010, 11:29 AM
NPR story (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130326384)on the EU trainers trying to train the Somali TFG's army. The major problem with desertion appears to be that the TFG doesn't pay its soldiers.

Not sure why we are even sending paychecks through the TFG. Why? So that government officials can steal them and spur desertion to al Shabaab?

JMA
10-05-2010, 04:01 PM
NPR story (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130326384)on the EU trainers trying to train the Somali TFG's army. The major problem with desertion appears to be that the TFG doesn't pay its soldiers.

Not sure why we are even sending paychecks through the TFG. Why? So that government officials can steal them and spur desertion to al Shabaab?

Exactly. Now someone needs to ask those 'smart' guys at the state department and at the EU how come they had not thought the whole thing properly through in the first place.

davidbfpo
11-07-2010, 09:56 PM
Copied from Studies on Radicalisation thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7188

The BBC have this article supporting a File on Four radio documentary, on the unclear impact of Al-Shabab on the Somali community in the UK:
Jenny Cuffe investigates how British-based Somalis are being lured into fighting for the al-Qaeda-linked Islamists of al-Shabaab.

There have been consistent rumours that dozens, perhaps scores of British-based Somali men have travelled to Somalia to join the militant Islamist group which was banned by the British Government earlier this year.

File on 4 explores the techniques used by Al-Shabaab to persuade young members of the 250,000-strong British Somali community to sign up for Jihad in Somalia. Members of the close-knit and reticent British Somali community tell Jenny Cuffe of their fears that youngsters are being seduced through the internet and by shadowy recruiting sergeants for the Horn of Africa's most feared military force.

And the programme travels to the state of Minnesota to see how a vigorous FBI investigation and cooperation from the Somali community have laid-bare a pipeline which first lured, then transported young American Somalis to the training camps and battlefields of Somalia.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11667690 and the File on Four podcast:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00vkxkc

I noted the references by US Customs to the issues around Khat being smuggled into the USA, via the UK originating from Kenya and the suspected fund raising for Al-Shabbab. Khat is not illegal in the UK, unlike the rest of the EU and USA.

davidbfpo
11-30-2010, 08:36 AM
Hopefully there will be more than this short report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/andrewharding/2010/11/going_to_mogadishu.html

No great surprises and I am somewhat sceptical about polling there. This struck me as welcome:
There's a growing consensus that the "top-down" approach to state building isn't working in Somalia, and it may be time to shift focus to the handful of local administrations that are actually making some headway. The northern region of Somaliland is a prime example.

Incidentally BBC Radio is reported President Museveni is in Mogadishu too now.

JMA
05-08-2011, 11:25 AM
Here is an article which is a great backgrounder to the greater Somalia problems.

Somalia, 1992 – Libya, 2011: Are they really as different as we imagine? (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/somalia-1992-libya-2011-are-they-really-as-different-as-we-imagine/article2013025/singlepage/#articlecontent)

Actually it reads like a horror story. But it does attempt to answer a number of questions some around here like M-A have asked.

And once again the question must be asked... "where has all the money gone?"

davidbfpo
05-08-2011, 12:45 PM
JMA,

A good find, although depressing and no wonder so few outsiders want to be engaged. Not much religious empathy and support on display, yes from the Muslim world. Instead a steady dribble of non-African money and a motley crew of African, mainly Christian soldiers fighting through a wrecked city sprawl.

I do wonder if both the West and the UN/AU mission left - plus no more money - what would happen. As I have said before that part of Somalia is slowly shrinking, as those who can leave for Somaliland, Yemen and far beyond. Who actually funds the conflict still, apart from inter-Somali trading?

SWJ Blog
05-15-2011, 12:26 AM
Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/battling-radical-islamist-prop/)

Entry Excerpt:

Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia:The Information Intervention Option
by Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob

While the international community continues to dither over Somalia, Islamic fundamentalists have taken over control of the country’s information space and other key strategic assets. This article discusses the precarious media environment in Somalia and revisits discourses on Information Intervention, conceptualised by Jamie Metzl in 1997. It examines the nature of UN’s ‘Information Intervention’ in Somalia and argues that the international community can do more by drawing on available legal instruments to carry out ‘coercive’ information intervention.

Download the Full Article: Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia:The Information Intervention Option (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/762-jacob.pdf)

Dr Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob is a Post-Doctoral Teaching Fellow at the Institute of Communications Studies, University of Leeds, United Kingdom.



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AdamG
05-24-2011, 02:20 PM
It's a gruesome display seen many times over the years in Mogadishu: The bodies of dead soldiers dragged through the streets. Somalis angry over 20 years of violence say they do it in hopes of driving out African Union forces.

The latest incident happened Thursday, when the body of a fighter who appeared to be a member of the AU's peacekeeping mission was pulled through the streets by a rope. The spokesman for the country's most dangerous militant group, al-Shabab, also displayed a body alongside documents that identified the man as a Ugandan soldier.

"Today we are celebrating the death and blood of your sons," Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage said at a news conference Thursday.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2015044574_apafsomaliadraggingbodies.html?prmid=ob insource

JMA
05-24-2011, 05:13 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2015044574_apafsomaliadraggingbodies.html?prmid=ob insource

A quote from the article states "The people drag the corpses to force these so-called peacekeepers to leave the country,..."

Do they think it will work because they think it was that which worked to get the US out or because that would work if applied against them?

davidbfpo
07-14-2011, 12:35 PM
In recent weeks the extent of a drought in the region has appeared, linked to reports of an increasing flow of refugees out of Somalia, notably into Kenya and a decision by Al-Shabaab to allow international aid into the areas it controls. All these matters are in the media.

The Quillam Foundation (London think tank) has published a short report on the links between extremists in Somalia and Yemen. I noted references to fighters and experts moving to the Yemen. Link:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/images/shabaab14july11.pdf

Personally I am not convinced, partly due to geography and logistics. Sometime ago I did post on the flow of refugees across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen, so there is a Somali presence already - who had fled what Al-Shabaab had helped create.

davidbfpo
07-27-2011, 09:16 PM
Forgiven my (comment), but I found this short article too optimistic and the sub-title 'With a little more donor support, international forces can help drive al-Shabab out of Mogadishu'. The author is the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).


We now effectively control two-thirds of the city -- some 16 square miles -- with more than two dozen security outposts scattered throughout the city. More importantly, this has created a relatively safe haven for 80 percent of the estimated 2 million people who live in Mogadishu's southwestern neighborhoods.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/26/were_winning_in_somalia?page=0,0

Incidentally a more detailed, military account appeared in the June/July RUSI Journal by ANISOM's military commander.

davidbfpo
08-03-2011, 11:42 AM
Two complimentary articles on Somalia and Al-Shabab, which explain the complexities of the situation. First, written late June 2011 opens with:[quuote]While cooperation between international forces, the Somali army and allied militias have delivered victories against Al-Shabab this spring, the political infighting and corruption of the Transitional Federal Government prevents further successes.[/quote]

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/christopher-anzalone/military-success-but-political-failure-fight-against-al-shabab-in-

Second, published today opens with:
...looks at Somalia’s Al-Shabab insurgents, describing how they relate to the country’s more conventional governance structures, and the difficulties the East African famine has thrown up for the group.

Concludes:
As long as the TFG remains an unviable alternative in the eyes of the local population to the insurgent movement, it is unlikely that Al-Shabab will disappear.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/christopher-anzalone/who-are-somalia%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98al-shabab%E2%80%99

Meantime a large part of Somalia suffers from a famine, although I note much of the recent TV footage of refugees arriving in Mogadishu has no adult-age males with their families. Which makes me suspect that the starving maybe being "encouraged" to leave the hinterland, largely Al-Shabab controlled, for Mogadishu, where any "failure" can be attributed to the TFG and it's Western friends.

JMA
08-03-2011, 01:51 PM
Meantime a large part of Somalia suffers from a famine, although I note much of the recent TV footage of refugees arriving in Mogadishu has no adult-age males with their families. Which makes me suspect that the starving maybe being "encouraged" to leave the hinterland, largely Al-Shabab controlled, for Mogadishu, where any "failure" can be attributed to the TFG and it's Western friends.

Al-Shabab can't feed them so they make it the problem of the traditional donor nations.

Almost clever. The removal of the civilian non-combatant population from A-Shabab controlled areas allows them to become virtual free fire zones and where the remaining food stocks can be targeted to deal Al-Shabab a solid blow.

Locate them with the aid of UAVs then visit them with significant air delivered ordinance.

Any takers?

AdamG
08-06-2011, 01:58 PM
MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed said on Saturday his military had defeated Islamist rebels battling to overthrow his Western-backed government after the al Shabaab group began withdrawing fighters from the capital Mogadishu.

Rejecting Ahmed's claim to have quashed al Shabaab's four-year insurgency, the militants' spokesman, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, said their retreat was tactical only and that they were holding their positions elsewhere in the anarchic country.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE77505C20110806?sp=true





Somalia's al-Shabab Islamist rebels have pulled out of all positions in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, government and rebel spokesmen say. President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed declared the rebels defeated after they left overnight on trucks. However, al-Shabab described the move as a "change of military tactics".*

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14430283




What a change of Shabab tactics might look like (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StHwAffUNxo)

davidbfpo
08-12-2011, 04:47 PM
The reliable African correspondent, Aidan Hartley, for The Spectator has been in Somalia again; the article is sub-titled 'War did. And food aid may well make it worse':
...For let’s get one thing right: the ‘Somalis’ are not starving. The victims are mainly the weak or minority clans — or anybody who has not armed himself to the teeth.....Across Africa’s Horn, vulnerable populations have been kept alive with food handouts that do not allow them to live well — but maintain their fertility so that their numbers have exploded.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7141183/drought-didnt-cause-somalias-famine.thtml

It appears we, those who support charitable relief, are being had again; in the UK there is a current emergency charity appeal and HMG have donated 25m UK Pounds. For details:http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Media-Room/Features/2011/Horn-of-Africa-aid-monitor/

ganulv
08-13-2011, 02:44 PM
It appears we, those who support charitable relief, are being had again; in the UK there is a current emergency charity appeal and HMG have donated 25m UK Pounds. For details:http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Media-Room/Features/2011/Horn-of-Africa-aid-monitor/

You might be interested in what Paul Farmer has to say here (http://www.npr.org/2011/07/12/137762573/paul-farmer-examines-haiti-after-the-earthquake) about the relationship between NGOs and (the absence of) governments.

A lot of Americans dream of living in a country where the government keeps its hands off of you. Really, there’s no need to dream. Just buy a one-way ticket to Mogadishu.

davidbfpo
08-16-2011, 10:20 AM
The full title is: Dangerous liaison? Evaluating relations between Al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda and ends with:
The Al-Shabab-AQAP relationship, though probable, remains largely shrouded in supposition that is based on relatively scarce detailed information. From a logistical and strategic point of view, such a relationship makes sense, particularly given the relatively close geographic proximity of the Somali movement and AQAP as well as a significant number of stated ideological intersections between the Al-Shabab and AQAP leaderships. More concrete details may emerge from the trial of Ahmed Warsame or possibly from the two militant organizations themselves, but until more concrete evidence emerges, the nature of the Al-Shabab-AQAP operational relationship will continue to remain largely obscure.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/christopher-anzalone/dangerous-liaison-evaluating-relations-between-al-shabab-and-al-qa?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=201210&utm_campaign=0

davidbfpo
08-17-2011, 01:28 PM
From the BBC:
Eritrea's President Isaias Afewerki is visiting Uganda in an attempt to boost peace in the Horn of Africa, a Ugandan presidential statement has said.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14543744

A curious diplomatic move especially after Al-Shabaab left Mogadishu.

jcustis
08-17-2011, 06:21 PM
The reliable African correspondent, Aidan Hartley, for The Spectator has been in Somalia again; the article is sub-titled 'War did. And food aid may well make it worse':

Drought is rarely the primary cause of famine, especially in Africa.

Band-Aid redux is not something that the US should allow itself to get sucked into. Focusing on other more pressing geo-political concerns is not going to garner us any more enmity than we might otherwise get today, next year, or within the coming decade, so in terms of international street cred or image, I tend to say, "meh.'

I used to think about the dynamics of food and famine in Africa with soft eyes and a compassionate bent that overlooked some of the schizophrenia of the world's most dangerous places. After having seen with my own eyes what went on in even a fairly stable place like Mogadishu (as compared to the hinterlands), I think we have no obligation on this one, and should give it a pass.

SWJ Blog
08-26-2011, 01:40 PM
An Opportunity in Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/an-opportunity-in-somalia)

Entry Excerpt:



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davidbfpo
09-30-2011, 12:52 PM
A thoughtful, if curious opinion article in FP Blog: 'Do Muslims Really Care About Somalia? With a sub-title:If they do, here's how they can save the country from famine.

Aside from the famine and lack of Muslim response, some historical background on internal politics.

I did note the comment, which struck me as odd; alas only cites one BBC report in support:
...the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion and occupation in 2006 and 2007 -- a war conducted in pursuit of just three al Qaeda suspects.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/28/somalia%20famine%20muslim%20countries?page=0,0

If there is a famine in the region, which having read a little I remain unconvinced of, I still doubt that the wider international community, whether Muslim or not, feel inclined to help.

By coincidence the BBC reports 3k more troops en route to join the African Unity presence, over the next six months:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15082141

davidbfpo
10-06-2011, 10:35 AM
A short insight into this troubled land and sub-titled:
Somalia's long civil war and political fragmentation define the country to the world. Yet the society also contains potent resources of allegiance and solidarity, says the doyen of Somali studies, Ioan M Lewis.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/ioan-m-lewis/somalia-livelihood-and-politics

The author Ioan Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Anthropology, London School of Economics.

Dayuhan
10-07-2011, 05:48 AM
Suggestions for a US role...

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68315/bronwyn-bruton-and-j-peter-pham/how-to-end-the-stalemate-in-somalia

davidbfpo
10-20-2011, 01:02 PM
There has been concern in the UK that citizens or residents will be radicalised and try to join the Al-Shabab / AQ fighters in Somalia. I'm sure it has been reported upon before, this is IIRC the first confirmed report and note the community response.

Edited slightly:
Two 18-year-olds from Cardiff, Mohamed Mohamed, and Iqbal Shahzad, deported from Kenya on Wednesday, were detained by the Metropolitan Police under the Terrorism Act, have been released without charge, say police. The men had been arrested close to the Kenyan border with Somalia, over suspected links to Somali militants.


The father of Mohamed Mohamed, of Somali descent, alerted police and flew out to find his son....

A joint statement from the Muslim community in Cardiff said the Somali and Pakistani community in particular, and the Muslim community in general, are anxiously waiting for the arrival of the pair.

"The families of the two youths are thankful to God that they are both safe and well," said the statement.

"Once the families realised that the two youths were missing, the authorities were notified. We are grateful that the authorities in collaboration with the communities were able to establish the whereabouts of the youths."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-15384716

Note the Somali community in Cardiff have been UK nationals for a long time, they were originally sailors and IMHO one of the least likely communities to find this would happen.

Dayuhan
10-21-2011, 02:14 AM
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2011/10/somalia-rebel-militia-al-qaeda-bodies-al-shabab-african-union.html


Somali militia claims slaughter of African Union soldiers

A Somali militia linked to Al Qaeda claimed Thursday to have killed dozens of African Union soldiers in fighting in Mogadishu and displayed the bodies on the outskirts of the war-torn capital.

If the claim is confirmed, it would represent the largest loss for the 9,000-member AU mission in Somalia since it began in 2007. And it would serve as a blunt warning of the Shabab militia’s capabilities, even as Kenyan soldiers press into its stronghold in famine-ravaged southern Somalia...

...Shabab spokesman Ali Mohamed Raghe held up the small wooden crosses and Bibles of the dead, claiming they were Burundian troops...

davidbfpo
10-21-2011, 01:02 PM
The BBC adds:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15401898

Note the BBC does not currently have a reporter in country, nor was the LA Times report based on a reporter in country.

I did note Al-Shabab - in the LA Times report - had taken the bodies:
..to a Shabab-controlled area about 10 miles outside Mogadishu.

TDB
10-24-2011, 06:07 PM
Second grenade attack in Nairobi in as many days, Al Shabab sticking to their word it would seem. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/us-kenya-somalia-newspro-idUSTRE79N5W220111024

davidbfpo
10-26-2011, 10:21 AM
I know the taking of European hostages got attention here for a short time and last week's Kenyan military incursion too. The linked article gives IMHO a wider viewpoint - mainly affecting Kenya - and helps to understand what is going on. It starts with:
..A fractious mix of violence and politics is unsettling the relationship between east African neighbours and putting more pressure on Somalis living in Kenya. The Somali militia group known as al-Shabaab is often viewed as the source of the problem. But the roots of the turmoil go deep in Kenya's own history..

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/daniel-branch/kenya-and-somalia-landscape-of-tension

carl
10-27-2011, 01:14 PM
The Kenyans say they are going to take Kismayo, and hold it.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Kenya-pushes-to-Kismayo-in-Somalia-20111020

Information Dissemination says too that the Kenyans are being supported by an air force of a Western power.

If the Kenyans are serious about holding Kismayo, this could get pretty big, at least regionally.

davidbfpo
10-29-2011, 10:03 AM
A very odd report:
Royal Marines have staged a daring raid in Somalia to seize a tribal leader, it was reported last night...to seize the influential clan chief. He was taken off for talks with MI6 and Foreign Offfice officials aboard a Royal Navy support ship ancored off the coast, centring on issues such as terrror training camps and the seizing of hostages....The raid in July..

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8857071/Marines-in-daring-amphibious-raid-in-Somalia.html

Left unsaid is whether the tribal leader is still in 'talks'?

davidbfpo
11-14-2011, 08:57 PM
I know Kenya has had a close relationship with Israel, which was very clear after the Entebbe Raid and when a few years ago a SAM was fired at an Israeli charter flight, full of tourists from an Indian Ocean resort.

Now there's this single strand reporting, which is almost a gift to Al-Shabab:
Kenya's prime minister is seeking Israel's support in stopping reprisal terror attacks by an al-Qaida-linked militant group Kenyan troops are pursuing in Somalia.... for assistance in building the capacity of the Kenyan police to deal with attacks by al-Shabab militants....but al-Shabab could view Kenya's request as a provocation.

Link:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kenya-pm-asks-israel-fighting-terrorists-14946631#.TsF-4D0Uqsp

davidbfpo
11-14-2011, 11:05 PM
Aidan Hartley, a Kenyan farmer - near the Somali badlands - and journalist has written a short article on the terrain facing the Kenyan Army incursion, plus supporters:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/life/7359948/wild-life.thtml

He opens with:
I am proud of Kenya for taking on Muslim extremists in southern Somalia. Rather wisely, the Kenyan military has so far prevented hacks from reaching the field. But for anybody in the outside world who cares, this is not a new battle. Operations against Somalis of varying types of fanaticism have been mounted since the 1960s.

davidbfpo
11-22-2011, 01:40 PM
Copied for reference from SWJ Blog a link to a multi-part report in the commercial on-line paper 'Military Times'; SWJ has amended the title to 'The (Not So*) Secret War in Africa' and two parts are to follow.

This is the short introduction:
This series is the result of a six-month investigation by Army Times senior staff writer Sean D. Naylor.

Naylor reached out to dozens of current and former diplomatic and military leaders and special operators about their activities in the Horn of Africa.

It is a war few will acknowledge and even fewer will discuss.

Nevertheless, Army Times was able to piece together a mosaic that shows the level of involvement by U.S. forces in Africa and the significant resources that have been employed - with mixed success - to hunt terrorists in Africa.

Link:http://militarytimes.com/projects/navy-seals-horn-of-africa/

It will be interesting to see if this report is cited as evidence of AFRICOM activity on other threads.

Added here as the focus is Somalia and historical activity.

Chowing
11-30-2011, 06:10 PM
In recent days Al-Shabaab terrorists have raided, looted, and completely shut down several aid and humanitarian agencies in Southern Somalia. The TGF and drone bombings have ran al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu and the terrorists our now concentrating on causing outside aid to break down in their strongholds in the south of Somalia.

How can the hearts and minds of the Somalians be won away from al-shabaab when giving aid seems less possible by the day?

Uboat509
11-30-2011, 07:45 PM
The conventional wisdom is that the US should provide very public humanitarian assistance in the hopes that the populous will appreciate what the US is doing for them. There are certainly times and places for that but this is not one of them. Our insistence on propping up the TFG despite its inability to do much more than govern much more than most of Mogadishu means that the key to success will be contingent on actually maintaining a lower profile. Somalis, particularly in the South where Al-Shabaab is strongest are already suspicious of foreign presence. The TFG remains unpopular in many parts of the country and its continued support by foreign powers, most notably the US and the EU has made many of them even more suspicious of foreign motives and intentions. The 2006-2009 failed attempt by Ethiopia to establish order, viewed by many Somalis as a US intervention by proxy, did little to alleviate that attitude. Al-Shabaab is really not terribly popular with local Somalis either but the TFG is even less so, or at the very least is incapable of doing anything to help Somalis who find themselves at the mercy of Al-Shabaab thugs.

Ideally what the US should do if it really wants to help is to quietly distance itself from the TFG and quietly work through intermediaries to provide support to local institutions and even militias who are opposed to Al-Shabaab. The anti-Al-Shabaab effort must have an entirely Somali. US/Western direct interventions should be limited to very surgical kinetic operations to remove foreign (ie not Somali) fighters who are advising/training/leading Al-Shabaab elements, taking great care to avoid collateral damage. The West, and the US in particular, must also be prepared if the government that emerges out of the inevitable collapse of the TFG is not the one that they would like to see. In all likelihood, Somaliland and and Puntland in the north, which have been self governing and largely stable for quite some time now will formally separate from the South. Any government that emerges from the south will likely have a conservative Islamic face, much like the Islamic Courts which preceded the Ethiopian intervention in 2006. This government will be far from what the US would like to see but the US must remember that the goal is not to create western style democracy but to create a state that is inhospitable (or at least less hospitable) to extremist elements with global aspirations. That is what we should do.

Unfortunately, we will remain wedded to the idea that anything other than some form representative government and the implementation of western style concepts like the primacy of secular law over religious law and gender equality means that we have failed. And so, what we will most likely do is we will continue in our counterproductive support of the abortion that is the TFG, we will continue to refuse to support local entities rather than the TFG so as not to "undermine" the TFG, and will continue to do so very publicly so that Somalis in the south will not soon forget our role in removing a distasteful (by western standards) government that at least functioned and helping to install and then prop up a government that is unpopular and largely impotent.

Chowing
11-30-2011, 08:59 PM
The conventional wisdom is that the US should provide very public humanitarian assistance in the hopes that the populous will appreciate what the US is doing for them.

However, in the current situation in Mogadishu and the south is that aid distribution centers have been shut down. So, the conventional wisdom is not in touch with reality on the ground at present.


.. Our insistence on propping up the TFG despite its inability to do much more than govern much more than most of Mogadishu means that the key to success will be contingent on actually maintaining a lower profile.

I agree, the US and Europeans need to stay far far in the background.


Somalis, particularly in the South where Al-Shabaab is strongest are already suspicious of foreign presence.

The drone flying overhead and ocassion dropping a bomb only instills more hatred and suspicion.



Al-Shabaab is really not terribly popular with local Somalis either but the TFG is even less so, or at the very least is incapable of doing anything to help Somalis who find themselves at the mercy of Al-Shabaab thugs.

The US and the Europeans for that matter do a terrible job of researching and understanding the local culture and the attitudes and preferences of the people. Or, it could be worse. It could be they do not even care what the locals think. They have their own agenda. I tend to think it is a little of each.


Ideally what the US should do if it really wants to help is to quietly distance itself from the TFG and quietly work through intermediaries to provide support to local institutions and even militias who are opposed to Al-Shabaab. The anti-Al-Shabaab effort must have an entirely Somali.

There is a lot aid agencies and other NGO's can do if they are given the freedom to do so. What we should be entering into is a new age in which aid agencies can no longer afford to remain neutral. Their countries of origin, supporters and constituents may require them to take sides. Not a good time ahead for such agencies. They often find themselves sitting ducks, and they are beginning to pay for it in Somalia, as well as in the Sahel at the hands of AQIM.

Regional and clan tensions are raising in the East and the Horn of Africa. I wrote about it recently on by blog. www.terrorisminafrica.com

davidbfpo
11-30-2011, 09:35 PM
Just watched a distressing half hour documentary on the famine in Somalia and the questions that arise - who is at fault? Provides some of the context for the issues raised here:http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/faultlines/2011/11/201111271473753430.html

As I have posted before the famine is not accepted as genuine by some.

Stan
11-30-2011, 09:38 PM
As I have posted before the famine is not accepted as genuine by some.

And I might add, that the distribution of aid is far from fair or controlled. Not too many volunteers willing to go into a war zone to donate rice with a US flag and "hand shake" on the outside :rolleyes:

davidbfpo
12-19-2011, 06:52 PM
Aidan Hartley is a white Kenyan farmer, whose farm is in the region near Somalia and a journalist. The linked article is about his struggles to stop rustlers and added here as it gives an impression of what life is like in that area. Human Terrain no less:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/life/7437833/wild-life.thtml

davidbfpo
12-23-2011, 06:34 PM
A BBC report starting with the UK's development minister and a quick overview of Somali primarily:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16296849


He said it would also help prevent terrorism and disorder in Somalia which was a "direct threat" to the UK.

"There are probably more British passport holders engaged in terrorist training in Somalia than in any other country in the world...This is not only about saving the lives of huge numbers of vulnerable babies and children, it is also about doing the right thing to promote British security."

An intriguing comment as most attention has been on the human traffic between the UK and Pakistan, with irregular "leaks" and rare arrests etc. The Somali community in the UK is smaller too.

There's also another international conference to be held in London in February 2012.

As for this comment:
Across Britain there is a very strong feeling that it is right to spend a very small amount of money, something like 1% of all the public expenditure that takes place in Britain, on helping people who are in a wretched and desperate condition

IIRC opinion polling does not support the scale of UK overseas aid, which is set to grow due to previous commitments amidst cuts at home, e.g. 20% for policing over three years. Nor does most aid go to places like Somalia.

davidbfpo
01-07-2012, 02:51 PM
Hat tip to Randy Borum for a pointer to this jamestown Foundation report Clan and Conflict in Somalia: Al-Shabaab and the Myth of “Transcending Clan Politics”, which opens with:
Clan identity and Islam are central pillars of Somali society, with clan dynamics and inter-clan rivalries magnified by decades of state collapse. Al-Shabaab - the dominant Islamist militia controlling much of southern and central Somalia - claims to “transcend clan politics,” yet reality on the ground belies this claim, revealing that al-Shabaab seeks to manipulate local clan alliances and remains deeply influenced by clan politics. This analysis shows that despite al-Shabaab’s hard-line Islamist identity and pro-al-Qaeda rhetoric, many aspects of the group’s past and current behavior remain deeply rooted in Somalia’s local dynamics. Moreover, clan rules apply even to Somalia’s most feared Islamists.

An American aspect which I've not seen reported before:
Even recruitment of foreign fighters - at least those of ethnic Somali origin - may have a clan-based component. A March 2010 report by the United Nations noted that more than half of the initial twenty Somalis who left Minneapolis to fight in Somalia had a parent from the Harti sub-clan, and several American Somalis killed in Somalia were discovered to have Harti familial ties, supporting the conclusion that recruitment has occurred along clan-linked peer networks.

It concludes in part:
In terms of al-Shabaab’s placement as an adherent to al-Qaeda’s worldview, the organization is caught between proving its Salafi-Jihadi credentials to core al-Qaeda and affiliated movements while attempting to establish power among a Somali population that focuses internally on parochial clan interests. Any disruption to this careful balance risks either undermining al-Shabaab’s carefully built power-base in Somalia or losing the support of international Salafi-Jihadis.

Link:http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d=38628&tx_ttnews%5bbackPid%5d=515

M-A Lagrange
01-09-2012, 03:56 AM
I am very sad to announce the death of 2 MSF expatriates in Somalia, Philippe Havet and Andrias Karel Keiluhuo. They were killed in Somalia over a dispute between the NGO and a former employee, nothing to see with the on going war.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000049181&cid=4

Philippe was “the logistician of the great lakes” as Colette Braeckman called him on her blog. http://blog.lesoir.be/colette-braeckman/2011/12/30/philippe-havet-le-log-des-grands-lacs-abattu-a-mogadiscio/
He dedicated his life to build a better DRC and a better Africa.
So did his colleague that unfortunately I do not know so I cannot salute him as he deserves.

Chowing
01-10-2012, 08:35 PM
Seven foreigners including a former US soldier have been arrested in Kenya in the last two weeks over links to Al-Shabaab.

Kenyan soldiers also killed six of the militants in Somalia on Tuesday.

The seven were arrested as they tried to enter Somalia to join the militant group for training.

Other suspects were from other European countries, said police spokesman Eric Kiraithe.

Mr Craig Benedict Baxam, the ex-US soldier was charged in an American court on Monday with attempting to provide material support to a terrorist group, CNN reported.

The TV station said he was arrested by Kenyan authorities on December 23.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Seven+Al+Shabaab+recruits+arrested++/-/1056/1303284/-/uygajmz/-/index.html

Link to photo:http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=Craig+Benedict+Baxam&hl=en&sa=X&fhp=1&biw=711&bih=453&tbm=isch&prmd=imvnsuo&tbnid=l29VV2VRXbb73M:&imgrefurl=http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/u-soldier-charged-trying-aid-somalia-shabab-163419652.html&docid=FYBFwe7TWwDkkM&itg=1&imgurl=http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/RJ1Cl5KOo2IveXY

Baxam is not the first American to join, or attempt to join, al-shabaab. There is a long history of former US (an soldiers for other countries) becoming mercenaries in battles around the world. How new is it for former US troops joining jihadist groups?

AdamG
01-10-2012, 10:35 PM
Before traveling to Africa, Baxam cashed out his retirement savings and destroyed his personal computer, according to the complaint. He told authorities he found music and pictures in America disrespectful and was "looking for dying with a gun in my hand."
http://www.fayobserver.com/articles/2012/01/09/1149234?sac=Home

Sounds like something written by Coppola : Sell the house. Sell the car. Sell the kids. Find someone else. I'm never coming back.

bourbon
01-11-2012, 01:31 AM
How new is it for former US troops joining jihadist groups?
Not unheard of. There have been cases before of former US military personnel going on Jihad in Bosnia and Chechnya; probably Afghanistan in the 80’s - 90’s too. There was a Chechen field commander that the Russians killed who they said had served in the USMC, Kadyrov and the FSB made a big deal out of it.

davidbfpo
01-13-2012, 01:44 PM
A relatively long BBC News analysis by an ICG regional analyst.


Foreign military intervention is deeply unpopular in Somalia and hugely counter-intuitive, at least from a historical perspective. It inflames public passions, radicalises society and exacerbates political polarisation.So far, Somali opposition to the Kenyan and Ethiopian interventions has largely been muted. We have not seen the huge visceral blowback predicted by some critics...

More interestingly, the extremists appear to have failed to rally Somalis or to effectively play the nationalist card as they did in 2006. The more plausible explanation is that the insurgent groups are deeply unpopular.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16510716

Rightly the comment asks is there a
clear and coherent long-term political strategy?

Chowing
01-13-2012, 06:17 PM
Al-Shabaab is not only using the popular social media Twitter, the host of the account is believed to be British. The terrorist group has an American Muslim using hip hop to appear to the world's young people to join the group. The seem very skilled at communication and more foreigners are listening and following. I report a whole list of foreign recruits including a British woman in my newest blog article http://terrorisminafrica.com/2012/01/al-shabaab-successful-in-recruiting-foreigners/

M-A Lagrange
01-17-2012, 07:15 AM
Kenya arrests 29 Ugandans 'headed to Somalia to fight'

The group warned of the danger of "a new generation of East African jihadists" including some recent converts to Islam and others attracted mainly by promises of money from the Islamist recruiters.

Many Kenyans are among detainees held by Ugandan authorities on suspicion of involvement in twin bomb attacks in Kampala in July 2010 that claimed 76 lives.
http://www.rnw.nl/africa/bulletin/kenya-arrests-29-ugandans-headed-somalia-fight-0

davidbfpo
01-23-2012, 09:52 PM
I spotted an initial report over the weekend IIRC, now NYT has a fuller account, entitled 'U.S. Drone Strike Kills Foreign Commander Fighting for Militants in Somalia':http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/world/africa/foreign-commander-killed-in-drone-strike-in-somalia.html?_r=1&ref=world

Taken from the report: Bilal al-Barjawi was of Lebanese origin, who had been a UK citizen till it was revoked ayear ago, his wife and children remain in London and:
joining them (Al-Shabab) in mid-2006 after having fought in Afghanistan.

We've heard of ethnic Somalis returning from the USA and Europe, suggestions that other groups, notably AQ, have links with Al-Shabaab, but nothing IIRC like this - an experienced fighter who was Arab by birth, British by nationality. Now what made him take the violent Jihad route?

Chowing
01-25-2012, 10:00 PM
Navy Seals successfully rescued two hostages (an American and a Danish national) in Somalia in an overnight raid.

http://terrorisminafrica.com/2012/01/us-frees-hostages-from-al-shabaab/

davidbfpo
02-10-2012, 02:12 PM
A BBC report and not unexpected:
Islamist militant group al-Shabab, which controls much of Somalia, has released a joint video with al-Qaeda, announcing the two groups have merged...

BBC Somali editor Yusuf Garaad Omar says the merger of al-Shabab and al-Qaeda has the potential to change the dynamics of the conflict in Somalia.

Al-Qaeda needs to project power and influence, particularly given its own operational impotence, Al-Shabab's acceptance under the al-Qaeda umbrella probably came with permission from Zawahiri for the group to launch external operations against the West (said Leah Farrell)

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16979440

davidbfpo
02-15-2012, 06:06 PM
This commentary on AQ's merger has been placed on the AQ in Africa thread. Hat tip to FP Blog:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/14/al_qaedas_merger?page=0,0

A good summary and ends with well made points:
It's one thing to have a loaded gun; it's another to pull the trigger and safely walk away. Al-Shabab might elevate its status in the jihadi world by hitting an American target on U.S. soil, but in doing so it would risk an even harsher crackdown on its bases in Somalia.

But then, al-Shabab has earned one more dangerous distinction: It is the only jihadi organization ever to convince Americans -- at least four, so far -- to serve as suicide bombers. It would not be wise to count on al Qaeda's newest affiliate to act in its own self-interest.

davidbfpo
02-23-2012, 06:07 PM
i am sure this website has popped up before, but was re-discovered today and explains itself as:
Somalia Report is a privately funded, non-partisan website that hires Western editors to work with Somali journalists inside the country to cover all aspects of the region: piracy, conflict, terrorism, government, local news, culture and key issues. The hour-by-hour coverage is targeted to professionals who need expertise, situational awareness and in-depth background to breaking news.

Link:http://www.somaliareport.com/index.php

Secondly and the link that took there, The Bureau of Investigative Journalism has assembled a dateline of events from 2001 onwards 'Get the data: Somalia’s hidden war':http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2012/02/22/get-the-data-somalias-hidden-war/

KingJaja
02-28-2012, 12:24 PM
Some interesting views on the recently concluded conference on Somalia.


At first I withheld judgment on the British government’s decision to hold a major international conference on Somalia. It was so good to hear the government at last taking an interest in this battered country, so I thought it would have been perverse to pour cold water on it.

From the start it was clear that piracy and the subsequent cost to the City of London’s marine insurance business, as well as the fear of terrorism, were the main drivers for David Cameron’s concern. The interests of the Somali people were always going to be secondary. Since Britain had done nothing during the past 20 years of war and suffering, it seemed unlikely that concern for Somalis would be the top priority.

But I am shocked at the government’s lack of understanding. Reading the reports of the conference, one would think that the cause of the war was Al Shabaab, the Islamic fundamentalist movement. Hilary Clinton spoke as if this was simply an extension of the American war or terror.

But the roots of Somalia’s state failure lie in its social structure not in Islamic extremism. When the civil war, or rather wars, started back in the late 1980s Shabaab did not exist. The wars were clan-based uprisings against a domineering dictatorship in a centralised state and against the dictator’s clan. That fragmentation of Somali society still exists beneath the surface. But this was hardly mentioned.

As order, security and hope were obliterated by clan warfare, leading to impoverishment, hunger and death, people turned to religion. Saudi funded fundamentalism spread rapidly throughout Somalia. It is hardly surprising that many young people who had never know anything but war and misery felt the appeal of the simplistic answers of fundamentalism.

Furthermore, Cameron does not appear to have learned from Britain’s own experience in Northern Ireland and the decolonisation process of the 1960s. In both cases Westminster tried to build coalitions of moderates and exclude the extremists and “men of violence”. But in the end in Northern Ireland peace came when the extremists were brought into the process, just as Britain 40 years earlier had been forced to release the jailed ‘terrorists’ throughout its empire and hand power to them.

Not inviting elements of Shabaab to London (and threatening to continue bombing them) has ensured that the war will continue. Excluding the Eritreans, major players in Somalia was also a mistake.

This conference was predicated on persuading the present but ineffective Somali politicians who form the Transitional Federal Government to step down. This is a nice dream, but Somali politicians are not known to commit hari kiri. They are better known for living in luxurious Nairobi hotels, talking at internationally funded conferences and chewing khat. A recent audit of aid money given to them said that 96% was unaccounted for.

The agenda of the Somali politicians at Lancaster House on Thursday was clear: to get the British and Americans to fight their war for them or pay others to do it and bomb their enemies. That will enable them to hold office – even though they have little power – and keep stealing the aid.

The parts of Somalia that work and are safe have evolved their own structures and agreements with their neighbours and rivals. Somalia’s social structure is unique and still very powerful and the systems in Puntland and Somaliland are built on them. No such system has emerged in the south of the country which includes the capital – the only part of Somalia still at war.

This conference should never have attempted to deal with anything more than helping to establish effective local government in the ports along the eastern seaboard and thereby providing a base for controlling piracy.

The attempt to reestablish a strong Somali state was a mistake. It will fail.

Richard Dowden is Director of the Royal African Society.

http://africanarguments.org/2012/02/27/somalia-and-the-london-conference-the-wrong-route-to-peace-%E2%80%93-by-richard-dowden/

davidbfpo
02-28-2012, 01:58 PM
I expect not a few SWC readers have little time for grand diplomatic conferences, let alone on Somalia, especially as there have been eighteen to date since 1981.

Here is another viewpoint by a Somali analyst, ex-RUSI and now at SOAS:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F46C3CD21920/

Leaving aside piracy which is symptom of the Somali problem, the author Anna Rader, says:
...the focus on AMISOM has obscured the need to restore and rebuild Somalia’s national forces. These are the only ones ultimately able to secure Somalia in the long term, but the communiqué is weakened by insufficient mention of this issue, and particularly of police and coastguard capacity-building, which are obvious counterparts to the national army.

Given the various missions training Somali soldiers outside the country, who according to reports rarely stayed loyal upon returning home, what is the point of 'capacity building' every actor except the (TFG) government?

Sadly nothing has yet happened to persuade me that Somalis via their "leaders" have found a route map to leave their current position.

Incidentally I was intrigued to note the call for ending the supply of charcoal from southern Somalia, via Kismayo, to the Persian Gulf; alongside the suspicion that Al-Shabaab gain some money via port taxes.

tequila
03-03-2012, 03:59 AM
IRIN News - Soldiers' Stories (http://www.irinnews.org/film/?id=4786)

A short film (about 30 minutes) about Ugandan peacekeepers in AMISOM. The focus is on a female Ugandan vehicle gunner and a male Ugandan medic, with some interesting interviews with Ugandan officers. This was in early 2011, prior to AMISOM ejecting al-Shabaab from Mogadishu.

davidbfpo
03-10-2012, 07:40 PM
A commentary on the links:
The evidence indicates it is not a mono-ethnic community of Somalis that is being drawn back, but rather a diverse group that reflects every aspect of the British Muslim community.

This passage will not impress UK officialdom:
The lesson appears to be clear: the West has still not figured out domestic counter-radicalization and the British-Somali connection is one that needs to be watched very carefully.

Link:http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/09/al-shabaabs-british-accent/

davidbfpo
03-10-2012, 08:11 PM
There was a demo in London, which coincided with the conference on Somalia and this is a comment by a press photographer (it is within a longer story):
I started to take a few shots and was surprised to find the protesters posing for the camera. There were none of the masked youths found at Congolese demos. The crowd were colourful, friendly and noisy. I asked them for details of the protest - why, what, where, etc. It was explained to me that these protesters came from the north of the country and referred to this area as Somali-land. They want recognition of their part of the country as an independent state. They hated the Somali people and the transitional govt. This was the biggest demo in Whitehall for ages and I did not see one arrest. They left at the designated dispersal time, some shaking hands with the cops as they left.

Link:http://mitchell-images-blog.blogspot.com/2012/02/bro-am-gonna-blow-ya-away-innit.html

CWOT
03-21-2012, 05:00 PM
For those interested in the recent video of Omar Hammami claiming he's been betrayed by al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda, Andrew Lebovich and I wrote a short commentary entitled, "Hammami's Plight Amongst al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda's Game of Thrones (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCoQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gwumc.edu%2Fhspi%2Fpolicy%2FC ommentary025_Hammami%2527s_Plight.pdf&ei=GQhqT6LTAq2Q0QG9uZiAAw&usg=AFQjCNHAA1BSrL8OBgUF7JwqnsO2g7WiYg&sig2=1W5kbb0cIGdahtQ1UIHWdg)."

The concept of the article is that Hammami's troubles signal larger infighting in al-Shabaab and potentially al-Qaeda.

As always, I appreciate any feedback from the SWJ crowd.

Here's the summary:


"AmericanHere's the summary: al-Shabaab commander Omar Hammami, known as Abu Mansur al-Amriki, on Friday sat alone in front of a flag commonly associated with al-Qaeda and said that the organization for which he’d fought for much of the last five years, al-Shabaab, might be trying to kill him. The video, the first public message from Hammami since last October, caught many counterterrorism analysts off guard.

The release is an unprecedented public admission of fear and weakness from a jihadist figure. But it has brought to the fore a game of thrones occurring in Somalia as rival al-Shabaab factions compete for power and eliminate their rivals, even as the organization has more tightly joined itself to al-Qaeda’s global jihad. Hammami’s video confirms not only a power struggle within al-Shabaab, but may also point to a larger battle for leadership supremacy in a post-Bin Laden al-Qaeda.

Counterterrorism analysts promoting Hammami as the clear successor to Anwar al-Awlaki were off the mark. Recent machinations should serve as reminders to analysts and commentators alike that jihadist groups--like other militant organizations--are rarely unified, and are often subject to a number of internal and external pressures."

Thanks,

Clint Watts (selectedwisdom.com)

CWOT
03-29-2012, 02:26 PM
For those interested in the Hammami story,

I've compiled diverging opinions of those debating the story (http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=589) and have published them in three scenarios.

Here's a quick intro.


Last week, I focused on Hammami’s disaster as it related to larger al-Qaeda. In my opinion, Zawahiri and those in AQ Central pushing for a merger have the blood of AQ members and foreign fighters in Somalia on their hands. Zawahiri either deliberately knocked off some internal AQ adversaries or through poor decision making inadvertently let al-Shabaab eliminate AQ members. One of the reasons I postulated Zawahiri agreed to an AQ-Shabaab merger was to gain access to Western foreign fighters. Hopefully, Zawahiri’s poor judgment will undermine the recruitment of some foreign fighters to AQ – especially al-Shabaab in Somalia – and sideline one of AQ’s main purposes for merging with al-Shabaab.

With this post, I’ll try to sum up the input of those debating Hammami’s plight and how it relates to al-Shabaab’s internal dimensions. I’ve included a a quick chart outlining key players mentioned and three theories as to what Hammami’s disaster may signal inside al-Shabaab.


Here's the link (http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=589).

davidbfpo
03-31-2012, 08:53 PM
I missed this BBC item:
Ugandan troops make up the bulk of the African Union force helping Somalia's UN-backed government. With much of the country under the control of al-Shabab Islamist militants, it is probably one of the most dangerous missions that a soldier could embark on. So why are Ugandans choosing to take part?

Leaving aside politics for their government:
For an individual soldier, the financial incentive to fight in Somalia is clear. The lowest paid Ugandan soldiers earn around $120 (£76) per month; if they opt to fight in Somalia they earn more than $1,000.

Citing a Ugandan journalist another answer:
Uganda has never had a peaceful transition of power. Guns and soldiers have always been involved in a change of regime.

"The ruling NRM party does not want thousands of soldiers hanging around in barracks with time on their hands. And there is no work for them outside the army - unemployment is 50% here," he says.

"President Museveni has been in power for almost 26 years and his popularity is waning. Military officers are already getting restless. From the government's point of view, better for them to be fighting in Somalia.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16853499

AdamG
04-05-2012, 02:32 AM
Two steps forward, one step back.


Outside, on Mogadishu’s streets, the thwat-thwat-thwat hammering sound that rings out in the mornings is not the clatter of machine guns but the sound of actual hammers. Construction is going on everywhere — new hospitals, new homes, new shops, a six-story hotel and even sports bars (albeit serving cappuccino and fruit juice instead of beer). Painters are painting again, and Somali singers just held their first concert in more than two decades at the National Theater, which used to be a weapons depot and then a national toilet. Up next: a televised, countrywide talent show, essentially “Somali Idol.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/world/africa/somalis-embrace-hope-and-reconstruction-in-mogadishu.html


At least 10 people were killed in a suicide bombing at Somalia's national theater in Mogadishu. The capital of the wartorn country had been experiencing a revival of sorts.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2012/0404/Deadly-blast-at-Somali-theater-mars-Mogadishu-s-budding-peace

davidbfpo
04-11-2012, 09:58 PM
A BBC News report:
Al-Shabab militants have moved north to semi-autonomous Puntland after being pushed out of central Somalia, Puntland President Abdirahman Farole says....The president says they are gathering in Puntland's Galgala mountains and the Golis range that borders the self-declared republic of Somaliland.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17674996

I am aware of one dissenting tribe in Somaliland, but the BBC's own map indicates a not inconsiderable 'pro-government administrations' space between where Al-Shabaab was and where they allegedly are moving to. Now 'pro-government' can mean all sorts of things and perhaps there is no capability or will to oppose such a move north.

davidbfpo
04-25-2012, 02:00 PM
An intriguing FP Blog article:
Turkey may just be able to fix this war-torn east African nation -- if it doesn't fall into the same traps of would-be saviors who came before it.

At the end:
....even skeptics hope Turkey can find that delicate balance between partnership and tough love. Turkey's new humanitarians could be game changers -- if they can avoid wearing out their welcome.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/24/saving_somalia?page=full

davidbfpo
06-09-2012, 02:08 PM
A curious BBC News report 'Defections put militant al-Shabab on the run in Somalia':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18364762

Citing a defector:
Abu Khalit said he had little time for the foreign fighters who provide the Islamist group with its ideological backbone. "They hide their faces from us. They live in safe houses, and we are not allowed inside...I realised they were not about religion..They were about killing people".

Near the end:
now the group is in retreat - many here sense its weakness and that may turn out to be the most fatal blow of all.

For a slightly bizarre sign of change:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18357660

BronwenM
06-17-2012, 06:20 PM
Dear colleagues,

I just started working with UN/AU Information Operations in Mog (with intermittent time in Nairobi) and am discovering sources that are not widely distributed or known (at least by me and I tended to follow Somalia pretty extensively prior to this job).

Thought there may be some interest in the following sources

1. AMISOM funds/runs this radio/website stories - called BAR-KULAN

http://www.bar-kulan.com/category/news-in-english

2. AMISOM daily and weekly media monitoring -

http://somaliamediamonitoring.org/

davidbfpo
06-17-2012, 07:01 PM
BronwenM,

Welcome back to posting on SWC after a lull. :)

An interesting place to be, although I expect most American readers have written off Somalia after their searing experience.

Now I must check those two websites.

BronwenM
06-17-2012, 07:40 PM
Thanks for the welcome Dave. Quite a lull indeed but please know I was always lurking. Just did not feel I had much to share...

Look forward to sharing what may be of interest as the info comes along. Open to helping any folks with info too via PM.

I found this website from Kismayo area (big city of great interest as it has the only dry dock in all of Somalia) that posts some news articles in English (most of posts are in Somali)

http://kismaayonews.com

Best, Bronwen

davidbfpo
06-21-2012, 12:42 PM
Catching up I found CWOT's comment on the BBC report, which reminds us of AQ's failure in Somalia twenty years ago and ends considering what might emerge:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=681

davidbfpo
06-21-2012, 12:43 PM
I have merged the recent thread 'Omar Hammami's Plight Amongst al-Shabaab & al-Qaeda's Game of Thrones' into this thread. they are now posts 130 & 131.

davidbfpo
06-28-2012, 10:57 AM
A few weeks ago a BBC travel programme visited a prison in Somaliland.

Hat tip to CWOT for id'ing this report by an American journalist, Eli Lake, visiting a very different prison for pirates and non-pirates like Al-Shabaab:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/27/somalia-s-prisons-the-war-on-terror-s-latest-front.html

Markus
07-17-2012, 12:28 PM
I just started working with UN/AU Information Operations in Mog (with intermittent time in Nairobi)

What a cool job.

davidbfpo
07-27-2012, 09:48 AM
The UK has established a small military presence in Somalia, the British Ministry of Defence has confirmed. A team of 10 military advisers is based at the headquarters of the African Union force in the capital, Mogadishu. They do not have a combat role; their job is to help the AU with planning, communications and medical support.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19001644

A curious development. After all there has been an EU civilian training team in Uganda for sometime and in Kenya there has a long established Anglo-Kenyan military link. So why does AMISOM need this team now?

davidbfpo
08-12-2012, 02:44 PM
Hat tip to Clint Watts (CWOT) for identifying a Canadian newspaper report 'Star Exclusive: Documents found on body of Al Qaeda’s African leader detail chilling plans for kidnapping, attacks':http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1224657--star-exclusive-documents-found-on-body-of-al-qaeda-s-african-leader-detail-chilling-plans-for-kidnapping-attacks

Worth reading in full IMHO. Interesting to see the focus on Israeli / Jewish targets and in the UK.

Clint has a short commentary:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=720

An interesting contrast in the reporting of Mo Farah's Olympic success, born in Somalia and moved to the UK when he was eight years old. Who calls himself British and a Londoner. Who will be the hero for Somali youth in the UK? Mo Farah or Al-Shabaab?

davidbfpo
08-28-2012, 08:38 PM
Alas no details on this relatively long-range mission, one can speculate how the troops moved so far:
Somali and African Union troops seized the port of Marka, Somalia, on Monday from the Shabab ......African Union officials said its fighters met little resistance in the battle for Marka, which is about 68 miles south of Mogadishu.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/world/africa/troops-seize-somali-port-from-the-shabab.html

davidbfpo
09-04-2012, 09:55 PM
A short and very interesting commentary, which ends with:
For more than a year, al-Shabaab has been fine-tuning its military strategy. The consensus among its leaders was to morph into a guerrilla movement and abandon traditional warfare by withdrawing into ‘Somalia’s Tora Bora’ – the mountainous region in Sanaag in the northeast, and into Ras Kamboni – a vast area of inaccessible jungles in Lower Jubba, near the border with Kenya. Both locations have been extremist hideouts for two decades.

Yet it’s al-Shabaab’s political strategy that’s likely to be more effective than its military one. The group now plans to rebrand itself as the alternative to the new Somalia government, should the latter becomes yet another playground for rapacious men.

Notwithstanding their brutal justice system, al-Shabaab has a track record of delivering three fundamental things that successive Somali governments have utterly failed to achieve: basic security, stemming corruption and a non-sectarian governing structure.

Unlike the new Somali government, which has a four-year term to achieve something, al-Shabaab is neither bound by term limits nor by a legal framework. Its faceless leaders are prepared to stay in the periphery until the new government commits suicide.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2012/09/03/al-shabaab-and-post-transition-somalia-by-abdi-aynte/

AdamG
09-26-2012, 06:51 AM
Kenyan fighter jets bomb Somali city
Aircraft target airport in southern city of Kismayo, where Kenya says al-Shabab is operating its last major base.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/09/201292523174849981.html

davidbfpo
11-03-2012, 07:20 PM
From the BBC:
Uganda will withdraw its forces from UN-backed international missions, Security Minister Muruli Mukasa says, escalating a long-running row....The UN infuriated Kampala when it published an experts' report accusing Uganda of arming Congolese rebels....The remarks from the security minister echo a statement made in the Ugandan parliament on Thursday by Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20187369

Other operations in the Central African Republic - the hunt for Kony & the LRA and the Democratic Republic of Congo will be affected.

Note Uganda was recently elected to the UNSC, with an overwhelming vote, so may have some clout in NYC.

One wonders how the EU & USA, the biggest known supporters of AMISOM, will react. What is more important the hell-hole of Somalia or eastern DRC? Time for some delicate diplomacy and more US$ to Uganda.

davidbfpo
11-25-2012, 10:44 PM
Aidan Hartley has been in Somalia recently to make a documentary. He has written two short articles in 'The Spectator', the first starts with:
I return to Mogadishu to find it’s calm – only a few assassinations, hit-and-run attacks, IEDs or suicide bombs — and at last most Somalis seem ready for peace. I’ve covered events here for 21 years and love imagining an end to war in this delightful city. I also know that it’s during times of calm, when you drop your guard — forgetting that there’s one rule for Somalis and another for foreigners — you end up dead.

He then writes about the risk of being kidnapped and preparations.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/wild-life/8688791/wild-life-44/

The next article uses a returning Somali restaurant owner's tale. Within are a few surprises:
If Somalia could rid itself of extremists and warlords, it could have a bright future. The outside world often assumes that there’s a constant famine here; that all Somalis must be starving. And yes, countless thousands have died of hunger, but that was due to war, not drought or a harsh environment.

The truth is that Somalia has wonderful food in abundance. It has some of the best surviving tuna fisheries in the world, thanks to the pirates, who have protected these waters. Its river lands are fertile and the markets are piled with fruit and vegetables — all organic thanks to the isolation of Somalia for a generation. The meat — ah, the meat! There are more camels in Somalia than any other nation worldwide.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8766671/cooking-for-freedom/

The documentary is The Master Chef of Mogadishu’ which was broadcast on Unreported World, Channel 4. I don't know if this podcast will work outside the UK:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/unreported-world/episode-guide/series-2012/episode-12

davidbfpo
11-26-2012, 11:44 PM
A new ICSR report:
In recent years, dozens of young Muslims from Europe and North America have gone to Somalia to fight with the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab. While the threat that al-Shabaab poses to the West can easily be overstated, its outreach to Muslims living in Europe and the United States has been very successful.

Through a combination of primary source analysis and background interviews in East Africa, together with a quantitative review of the group's Twitter output, ICSR's latest report -- Lights, Camera, Jihad: Al Shabaab's Western Media Strategy -- explains how al-Shabaab markets itself to Muslims in the West.A taster:
Al-Shabaab presents its mission in cosmic terms, invoking a civilisational conflict between the forces of Islam and non-Islam. This is coupled with attempts to develop an ‘ummah consciousness’ in potential recruits, encouraging them to identify with Muslim causes worldwide. Typically, the suffering of Muslims around the world is juxtaposed with the ease of life in the West. The central tenet of this messaging is that faith necessitates action, and Muslims need to recalibrate their priorities by placing the liberation of Muslim lands ahead of esoteric matters of faith.Link to report and podcast for the launch last week:http://icsr.info/2012/11/icsr-report-lights-camera-jihad-al-shabaabs-western-media-strategy/

davidbfpo
12-22-2012, 05:46 PM
Since African Union forces surrounded Kismayo, we have kept a database detailing every publicly-reported attack known or suspected of being carried out by the group and its sympathizers. This database runs from September 30, 2012, through December 5, 2012, covering a total of 68 attacks. In this article, we map the early part of Shabaab’s attempted post-Kismayo insurgency by providing a visualization of this data.

Link:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2012/12/guest-post-shape-al-shabaab-s-post-kismayo-attacks.html

bourbon
01-12-2013, 10:51 PM
French SOF lost 2 men Saturday in the failed rescue of a DGSE officer being held by al-Shabab, 110 km south of Mogadishu.

davidbfpo
01-13-2013, 12:55 AM
The kidnapped DGSE agent was:
..hostage Denis Allex, kidnapped in Somalia in July 2009...

From:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20996963

IIRC he was one of two agents kidnapped, the other escaped after a few months.

There were two photos shown on the BBC News, only one on their website; they showed a very different man. Sadly I think his chances of survival now are slim.

davidbfpo
01-13-2013, 02:54 PM
An optimistic article, indeed rather odd as it claims:
Yet in 2012, Somalis held their first democratic elections in decades..

For once the comments are worth skimming through.

I looked quickly, we have not missed this democratic election, it was a parliament meeting, it's members nominated by the clans.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/somalia-a-failed-state-is-back-from-the-dead-8449310.html

davidbfpo
04-29-2013, 10:12 PM
An article in West Point's CTC's periodical 'Sentinel' on the vagaries of warfare in a clan dominated society:
To others, this seems like a barely organized chaos, the unpredictability of Somali political behavior. Somalis may seem like they have very limited or tentative buy-in to agreements, and are unreliable and selfish. In fact, leaders, particularly local leaders who are directly responsible to kin and communities, tend to be pragmatic to the extreme.

Link:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/rethinking-counterinsurgency-in-somalia

davidbfpo
05-02-2013, 09:18 PM
The UK is to co-host a conference on Somalia again, so this article comes as no surprise and our PM, David Cameron, referred to Somalia as an example of development and security being entwined. Ah, but does anyone seriously believe:
The Somalian government payroll currently includes 8,500 soldiers and 6,000 police in Mogadishu, the capital. Most are hastily drafted members of militias whose ultimate loyalty is to clans or warlord leaders.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/10034329/British-millions-for-new-Somalian-security-forces.html

I don't and way-back there was a post about those trained in Uganda, by an EU mission, promptly defected to a militia or Al-Shabaab upon their return.

M-A Lagrange
06-19-2013, 02:37 PM
After may be a too entousiastic and optimistic vision of Somalia, to day was a hot day in Moga:


Somali militants attack UN base in Mogadishu, killing 15
Fifteen people have been killed after Islamist militants launched their first major assault for years on a UN compound in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.

At least two suicide bombers struck the biggest UN base in the city, which was then stormed by gunmen who fought security forces inside for about two hours.
(...)
The al-Shabaab militant group said on its Twitter feed shortly after the attack that its fighters "are now in control of the entire compound and the battle is still ongoing".
But on Wednesday afternoon General Mukhtar Mohamed of the Somali police held a press conference to say the security forces had succeeded in liberating the compound. At least 20 people, including civilians and security forces, were wounded in the battle. He also confirmed that the police apprehended one suspect in connection with the attack.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/19/somali-militants-attack-un-base-mogadishu

TV-PressPass
06-19-2013, 07:56 PM
Interesting that the South African's had someone in there:


South African state weapons firm Denel said two of its staff were killed in an attack on Wednesday on the United Nations compound in the Somali capital Mogadishu.

A spokeswoman for South Africa's largest manufacturer of defense equipment said the identity of the workers was not yet known.

"We have sent someone to Somalia to inform us from the ground," Vuyelwa Qinga said.

davidbfpo
06-20-2013, 11:26 AM
TV footage often shows that ANISOM use a lot of South African made wheeled APCs and I have a vague recollection that some small drones were sought. Maybe that explains the presence of Denel's staff?

M-A Lagrange
06-20-2013, 12:43 PM
TV footage often shows that ANISOM use a lot of South African made wheeled APCs and I have a vague recollection that some small drones were sought. Maybe that explains the presence of Denel's staff?

It is much more simple: Denel's staff is mainly present because of the contract the UN have with Mechem, Denel's demining branch.

davidbfpo
06-26-2013, 08:15 PM
Fascinating insight into how Al-Shabaab - in 2012 (just found by another) - is following their own model of 'divide & rule':
If a split within the rank and file of Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants was a mere speculation, it has now become a reality, thanks to a lacerating Friday sermon by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Somalia’s best known holy warrior.

In a rare public dissent, Aweys sharply attacked the organization’s top brass, accusing them of, among other things, monopolizing jihad, globalizing the Somali conflict, assassination of innocent Somalis and, more damningly, acting in a manner unbecoming of upright jihadists.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2012/04/04/somalia-sheikh-hassan-dahir-aweys-and-the-politics-of-the-al-shabaab-split-by-abdi-aynte/

davidbfpo
06-30-2013, 11:38 AM
An update on the above post by the BBC:
A top Islamist in Somalia, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, has arrived in the capital Mogadishu amid reports of a split in the al-Shabab group. He was flown from the northern town of Adado, escorted by government security forces, but it is unclear whether he has surrendered or defected.

The exact cause of the al-Shabab split is not known, but there has been a long-running internal power struggle between its leader Ahmed Abdi Godane and those seen as more moderate who oppose links with al-Qaeda, analysts say.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23115819

davidbfpo
07-02-2013, 09:05 PM
In a single stroke, Ahmed Abdi Godane, the emir of Al-Shabaab who goes by the nom de guerre of “Abu Zubeir,” managed to re-align the radical group’s leadership dynamics and further consolidated his power by getting rid of his major detractors. His loyalists killed two co-founders of Al-Shabaab, including his former deputy and longtime friend, Ibrahim Al-Afghani, and chased away Hassan Dahir Aweys and Mukhtar Robow, the former spokesman for the terror group.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2013/07/02/somalia-the-godane-coup-and-the-unraveling-of-al-shabaab-%E2%80%93-by-hassan-m-abukar/

davidbfpo
07-14-2013, 06:02 PM
Unconfirmed report circulating that:
The main target ....was Gary Schroen, director of CIA operations in East Africa.... Four senior Ugandan officers, including the deputy commander of UPDF forces in Somalia, were killed in the attack. One of Schroen's security staff, a US intelligence official, was also killed. Three US officials, including Schroen, and one Ugandan officer were seriously wounded.

Link:http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2013/07/13/18050.shtml

It is also on a subscription site. Nothing readily found on Google.

Added two hours later. A partial indication that there was an attack, although not who was injured: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2013-07/12/c_132537032.htm

davidbfpo
07-23-2013, 04:57 PM
A FP report, citing a new UN report and the US academic Ken Menkhaus. The last paragraph:
In a particularly grim twist, it is America's counterterrorism partners -- corrupt Somali institutions and Kenyan collusion with al-Shabab's financial backers -- that pose a potentially even more lethal threat to American aims. "That Shabab is stronger than people think is interesting and newsworthy," said Menkhaus. But to Menkhaus, the bigger story is the failure of America's allies to maintain a united front against al-Shabab. "Our best friends are busy fighting one another."

The UN is critical of the Kenyans, who they allege have:
Even worse, Kenyan forces in Kismayo have clashed with clans loyal to the U.S.-backed federal government while colluding with financial backers of al-Shabab in the lucrative and illicit charcoal trade, enabling the Islamist movement to refill its war chest. "The revenue that al-Shabaab currently derives from its Kismayo shareholding, its ... exports and the taxation of ground transportation likely exceeds the estimated U.S. $25 million it generated in charcoal revenue when it controlled Kismayo," the report stated.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/22/is_the_us_ramping_up_a_secret_war_in_somalia_al_sh abab?page=full

davidbfpo
07-24-2013, 09:13 AM
Now Pyjamas Media have a short story, without confirmation; plus no official comments are being made and the story ends:
Today, via Twitter, the Somali terror group announced “Schroen succumbed to his injuries 2 days ago, making him the most high-profile U.S. agent killed.”

Link:http://pjmedia.com/blog/al-shabaab-claims-u-s-kills-in-somalia-after-obama-steps-up-secret-aid/?singlepage=true

davidbfpo
07-27-2013, 05:24 PM
Professor John Schindler, a blogger on:http://20committee.com/ just responded to a Twitter query re Al-Shabaab's claims:
Schroen story v weird, no idea what really happened.

SWJ Blog
09-11-2013, 11:50 AM
Somalia 20 Years Later – Lessons Learned, Re-learned and Forgotten (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/somalia-20-years-later-%E2%80%93-lessons-learned-re-learned-and-forgotten)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/somalia-20-years-later-%E2%80%93-lessons-learned-re-learned-and-forgotten) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
09-22-2013, 06:58 PM
An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:
The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

Bill Moore
09-23-2013, 03:58 AM
An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

Seems we have heard this spin many times before. How many times have Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab been on their last leg and about to die off? I agree the recent trend for Al Shabaab hasn't been good, but they still control a large section of Somalia, they still have control of around 5,000 fighters, and they were able to orchestrate a very sophisticated attack in another country, potentially with a multinational group of terrorists. If true that could imply the capacity to do the same in some locations in the West.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/22/world/meast/kenya-mall-al-shabaab-analysis/


STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Al-Shabaab has threatened revenge on Kenya ever since Kenyan forces entered Somalia.

Mall attack shows Al-Shabaab has taken its ability to strike outside Somalia to a new level.

The operation meets criteria that al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri listed in a recent message.

Al-Shabaab allies in region include Kenyan militant group al Hijra and Eritrean government.


After years of infighting and feuds, the Nairobi attack may also confirm the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab's most militant faction and its leader Mukhtar Abu al Zubayr (aka Ahmed Abdi Godane). Zubayr attended a madrassa in Pakistan as a young man and merged the group with al Qaeda in February 2012. He sees Al-Shabaab as part of al Qaeda's global jihad.

Dissenters have defected or been killed. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys of Al-Shabaab's old guard surrendered to Somali authorities.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/kenya-attack-raises-terror-concerns-us/story?id=20336438


During Congressional testimony in January 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed al-Shabaab as one of the most significant terror threats to the homeland, in part due to a "foreign fighter cadre that includes U.S. passport holders... [who] may have aspirations to attack inside the United States."

However, a senior law enforcement official said the latest U.S. government analysis shows no heightened threat to the U.S. as a result of the Kenya attack. While al-Shabaab does have a desire to strike at Western targets in Africa, hitting the U.S. homeland is "not a priority" for them, the official said.

No predictions from me on this one, we'll see where this goes over the next few months.

davidbfpo
09-23-2013, 10:44 AM
Some rare footage from Kismayo from the BBC. Curiously the reporter was with troops from Sierra Leone, not Kenya. The film ends with pictures of the charcoal trade:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24195852

I noted the refugee / displaced persons camps were without any aid agency presence.

On the parallel thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' Bill M. referred to Al-Shabaab holding large swathes of Somali territory - as indicated by the map n the BBC report, but one has to ask how many Somalis actually live in territory controlled by Al-Shabaab today? My own suspicion from faraway is that very few do; anyone who can leave has, invariably to the camps around those cities controlled by ANISOM.

ganulv
09-24-2013, 02:00 PM
Yesterday The Guardian published an editorial penned by Giles Foden (http://literature.britishcouncil.org/giles-foden) in regards to the Westgate attack [link (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/23/kenya-behind-terror-rampant-corruption)]. I feel that Foden has a lot more to say here than “food not bombs.” Others of course may disagree.


[…]

These attacks are part of a spectrum of banditry, with corruption at one end, terrorism at the other, and regular robbery in the middle. Some Kenyans will feel that the conditions in which the attacks have happened have arisen because of economic growth in a vacuum of governance. Money that should have been spent on security and other aspects of national infrastructure has been disappearing for generations.

[…]

davidbfpo
10-05-2013, 09:23 PM
An article 'The Charcoal Connection: US security assistance and Kenyan Counterterrorism' on War on the Rocks blogsite (WOTR), which rightly asks whether Kenya is really fighting:
In 2012, the Kenyan army succeeding in driving the Shabaab from the Somali port of Kismayo, the group’s major southern redoubt. The army turned the port over to the Ras Kamboni force, a local militia. That same year, a UN resolution banned the export of Somali charcoal in an effort to undercut the Shabaab’s finances. Ignoring the resolution, the Kenyan army and its allied Somali militia has allowed the trade to continue. Members of the army, the Ras Kamboni force, and Kenyan politicians have reportedly benefited from this illicit commerce—as has the Shabaab, which has continued to control and reap considerable profits from the charcoal networks.

There is nothing like simplicity!

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2013/09/the-charcoal-connection-u-s-security-assistance-and-kenyan-counterterrorism/

M-A Lagrange
10-07-2013, 07:59 AM
Target Of U.S. Raid In Somalia Called A Top Attack Planner

A Kenyan intelligence official of Somali origin says that the "high-value terrorist leader" whose residence was targeted in Saturday was the senior al-Shabab leader Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir, alias Ikrima.

Ikrima is a Kenyan of Somali descent who boasts connections to both al-Shabab in Somalia and to a Kenyan jihadist group called al-Hijra. Kenyan authorities announced on Friday that two of the four terrorists killed in the were al-Hijra militants.

[...]
A leaked Kenyan intelligence report confirms that Ikrima was plotting "multiple attacks" inside Kenya, "sanctioned by al-Qaida" in Pakistan, and "involving financial and logistical support from South African operatives." The report continues:


"By December 2011, the planners had acquired safe houses in Nairobi & Mombasa, trained the executors, received explosives from Somalia and commenced assembly of and concealment of explosives."

According to the report, Ikrima's small "terror cell" included two British nationals: an explosives expert named Jermaine John Grant and the infamous White Widow, Samantha Lewthwaite. (Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta had confirmed that a "British woman" may have been among the fighters in Westgate Mall.)
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/10/06/229889835/kenyan-official-names-alleged-target-of-seal-raid-in-somalia

Main target seems accurate. For the rest, usual caution with intelligence leaks are to be observed.

AdamG
10-07-2013, 01:59 PM
A commando unit from the US Navy’s Seal Team Six launched an amphibious raid on a Somali town, but failed to confirm a capture or kill of their Al Shabab target, suspected to be linked to Nairobi’s Westgate mall terror attack.

The operation could have opposite its intended result of discouraging further attacks. Analysts warn that even earlier successful targeted strikes against Al Shabab, a Somalia-based Islamist militant group, failed to curb the group's capacity to carry out international terror attacks, and that failed missions could in fact bolster its support and recruitment.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2013/1006/Failed-Navy-SEALs-raid-on-Somali-target-could-bolster-Al-Shabab-video

AdamG
10-07-2013, 07:30 PM
Despite the failure to capture or definitively kill the target on Saturday, Pentagon press secretary George Little dismissed the notion that the Somalia raid was a failure.

“Seeing some suggestions that one of our military ops wasn't successful,” he wrote on Twitter. “We knocked on al-Shabaab's front door. They shouldn't sleep easy.”

Read more: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/africa/somalia/131007/the-navy-seals-somalia#ixzz2h3z2wPDI

AdamG
10-07-2013, 11:06 PM
The Intel value (or not) of items dropped during the raid.
http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seals-left-gear-in-somalia-2013-10

carl
10-08-2013, 01:10 AM
AdamG:

That's classic.

"Despite the failure to capture or definitively kill the target on Saturday, Pentagon press secretary George Little dismissed the notion that the Somalia raid was a failure.

“Seeing some suggestions that one of our military ops wasn't successful,” he wrote on Twitter. “We knocked on al-Shabaab's front door. They shouldn't sleep easy.” "

Even our failures aren't failures because if we fail we just change the definition of failure so it becomes a success. Ivy League educations are wonderous things, enabling grads to work miracles.

Too bad our inside the beltway genii don't understand that to fail is human and not to be ashamed of if it is an honest failure and one learns from it. That attitude is going to get us into real, as in national big war defeat, trouble some day if it doesn't change.

M-A Lagrange
10-08-2013, 07:50 AM
Two interesting articles on the Westgate and the SEAL raids.

First one is on the “white widow”. It is now almost certain she did not participate and the media frenzy around her involvement has been prompted by a lack of info and, as usual, the need for a scoop!

White Widow merely person of interest in Nairobi mall probe
AS FAR as the security officials in Kenya are concerned, Samantha Lewthwaite, the Northern Irish woman popularly tied to the Somali extremist group al-Shabaab, is merely a person of interest and not wanted for September’s mall siege in Nairobi that left dozens dead and many more injured. Having been first linked to the attacks by the British media, the link became so compelling that it was carried around the world as fact.
The Sunday Independent got the correct Lewthwaite angle: we should be worried about what the news of her fake South African passport will do to this country’s bid to reassure the world at large that its passport-issuing system is reliable.

Home Affairs Minister Naledi Pandor has assured the nation that the department had a handle on the situation as far back as 2011, when it cancelled the fraudulent passport.

"It was reported that Lewthwaite bought passports for her and her two children in Durban from convicted fraudster Ehmed Chisty for R60,000. The Sunday Independent was reliably informed that home affairs has been searching for three men who have been running ID schemes across the city similar to Chisty’s, raking in between R50,000 and R120,000 for each ID," the paper reported.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2013/10/08/white-widow-merely-person-of-interest-in-nairobi-mall-probe

And a very detailed inside of the SEAL raid:

Somalia SEAL Raid Ended by Children Used as Shields
In a corroborating report, NBC News described how SEALs were able to enter the al-Shabaab compound, take the positions required by their planning, and even watch one of the terrorists take a cigarette break. But that same al-Shabaab fighter may have spotted the SEALs, because he came back out with an AK-47 and fired on the SEALs. The mission quickly escalated into a firefight, with the SEALs encountering intense fire with both guns and grenades. An unidentified official told CNN that, “Once it became clear we were not going to able to take him, the Navy commander made the decision to withdraw.”

CNN and NBC had both received word from U.S. officials that the decision to end the Somalia raid was prompted by seeing children, used as human shields, being moved out of the fortified seaside stronghold the SEALs were attacking.

SEALs were actually able to see Ikrima through the compound’s windows, but when children came into their scopes, the threat of hurting them prompted the team’s withdrawal. The tactical situation for these members of SEAL Team Six, the same unit that killed Osama bin-Laden, was also disintegrating, and they evacuated via the beach.
http://guardianlv.com/2013/10/somalia-seal-raid-ended-by-children-used-as-shields/

Bill Moore
10-08-2013, 08:36 AM
After reading the Selected Wisdom post it seemed to be a lot of uninformed rambling about nothing. Al Shabaab has been a multinational terrorist network for years, and they also have been an insurgency force (even longer). Contrary to all the reports of Al-Shabaab being on their last leg, they remain one of the more dangerous Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist networks (even if their insurgency efforts were rolled back). We struggle too much to try to fit loose networked organizations into our desired view of organizations with a formal structure, and this results in a continued misdiagnosis or classification. We think we know how to defeat formal organizations, but loose networks are much harder to understand since they constantly adapt and are also very resilient. We seem to want to claim victory prematurely simply because African Union forces pushed Al-Shabaab out of the major urban areas in Somalia, yet they still exist and they still have the will and capability to fight, so making claims like they're on their last leg only sets us for disappointment when we find they're far from it. Instead of making such wishful comments, we should pursue the momentum the AU created and continue to aggressively target them until they're sufficiently suppressed. Furthermore, there is no reason to think they conducted this attack on the mall on their own, since the various terrorist networks around the globe mutually support each other to varying degrees, but on the other hand it may been conducted by homeboys from Kenya. It wouldn't surprise me if actors as far away as Pakistan and Yemen were involved (neither are that far away). Much too early to tell at this point, but whatever the truth is, it shouldn't be surprising, since all are credible probabilities.

http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/al_shabaab.html


Al-Shabaab is not centralized or monolithic in its agenda or goals. Its rank-and-file members come from disparate clans, and the group is susceptible to clan politics, internal divisions, and shifting alliances. Most of its fighters are predominantly interested in the nationalistic battle against the TFG and not supportive of global jihad. Al-Shabaab’s senior leadership is affiliated with al-Qa‘ida and is believed to have trained and fought in Afghanistan. The merger of the two groups was publicly announced in February 2012 by the al-Shabaab amir and Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of al-Qa‘ida.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/05/world/africa/somalia-us-shabaab-raid/index.html?iid=article_sidebar


Washington (CNN) -- A pre-dawn raid by elite U.S. forces in southern Somalia, in the heart of territory controlled by the al Qaeda subsidiary Al-Shabaab, targeted an Al-Shabaab commander connected to one of the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings, a senior Obama administration official said Sunday.

The suspected foreign fighter commander is named Ikrima, a Kenyan of Somali origin about whom little is known. The official said Ikrima is associated with two now-deceased al Qaeda operatives who played roles in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, and the 2002 attacks on a hotel and airline in Mombasa, also in Kenya.

Not only do they have American, British, and Kenya recruits:

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-somalia-raid-20131008,0,4926499.story


According to Norway's Channel 2, Ikrima had traveled to Norway in 2004 and sought political asylum while living in Oslo. He received travel documents but left in 2008 before authorities had ruled on his asylum request. Two Swedes whom he met in Norway later joined him at Shabab training camps in Somalia, the TV station said, adding that a Swedish member of the Shabab was killed in the SEAL raid Saturday.

Morten Storm, a Dane who said he has worked for several Western intelligence agencies, told CNN that he helped pass messages between Ikrima and Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen between 2008 and 2012.

Ikrima communicated directly with Anwar Awlaki, the American-born Al Qaeda leader in Yemen who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011, about going to Yemen but never made the trip, Storm said. Instead Ikrima, who speaks Norwegian, became a key handler of Shabab recruits from the West.

Stan
10-08-2013, 08:49 PM
Hey Carl,

How about a disinformation campaign... loled into a false sense of security.

CA and Pysops :cool:

John T. Fishel
10-08-2013, 09:13 PM
I had an Ivy League education and I resent that.:wry: Some of us really aren't stupid and can admit our mistakes. Others, on both sides of the aisle, have a real problem admitting they are wrong.

I've been wrong a whole lot of times (although I just can't seem to remember any off the top of my head ;)) but I still keep trying and hopefully learning.

Cheers

JohnT

carl
10-09-2013, 12:51 AM
JohnT:

There is a rehabilitation program available, but it is rigorous and available only to those who will take full responsibility for their actions and are sincerely sorry for their transgressions. You mainly have to say you take responsibility and say you're sorry with a slight choke in your voice...once. After that, you're in. We didn't want to make it too hard so as not to discourage deserters from the other side.

carl
10-09-2013, 12:56 AM
Hey Carl,

How about a disinformation campaign... loled into a false sense of security.

CA and Pysops :cool:

Hey Stan! How you been? Glad to see you back here.

We got 'em man. They all think our leaders are feckless girly men right now. Just wait till the ballon goes up and the sterling characters and courageous dispositions come out. Boy will they be surprised.

omarali50
10-09-2013, 02:45 AM
Carl, Maybe that really isnt the world we live in. Isnt there a dialog somewhere in Wag the Dog where the Dustin Hoffman character gets a little pensive and wonders what will become of our civilization if we just manufacture a Potemkin war and sell it like we sell washing powder (actual words were probably different)..and De Niro says "that IS our civilization"...
Or some such.

omarali50
10-09-2013, 02:52 AM
Exhibit A in "the emperor really is naked"" http://linkis.com/yaleglobal.yale.edu/PfQD

Marc Grossman was Afpak special rep. And apparently he is totally serious here. Read and weep.

omarali50
10-09-2013, 02:55 AM
and this is exhibit 2. One of the best (if not THE best) book review in the nation is suckered by Akbar S Ahmed. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/oct/24/terror-hidden-source/?pagination=false
I have lost all hope.

Stan
10-09-2013, 12:15 PM
Hey Stan! How you been? Glad to see you back here.

We got 'em man. They all think our leaders are feckless girly men right now. Just wait till the ballon goes up and the sterling characters and courageous dispositions come out. Boy will they be surprised.

Hey Carl,
Doing fine and had enough of the Dark Continent this year ;)

I was just across the fence during our last fiasco in Somalia and I assure you the boys in green will not suffer fool to another administration :cool:

PM and email sent.

Regards, Stan

davidbfpo
10-09-2013, 01:33 PM
and this is exhibit 2. One of the best (if not THE best) book review in the nation is suckered by Akbar S Ahmed. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/oct/24/terror-hidden-source/?pagination=false
I have lost all hope.

Very good catch. Lots of gems and wisdom in the review.:)

davidbfpo
10-09-2013, 03:55 PM
A FP Blof article by:
Roger D. Carstens is a former U.S. Army Special Forces Officer who recently spent 15 months in Somalia as an observer and military advisor. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the New America Foundation. and entitled 'How to rid Somalia of al-Shabab once and for all -- in six (not-so) easy steps':http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/10/07/the_analog_war_al_shabab_amisom?page=full

Others are better placed to comment, but from disadvantage point I did find this passage lacked credibility - with my bold:
The Somali National Army currently sits at about 12,000 troops divided among six divisions. The soldiers are generally great fighters -- and for the most part, they are led by good officers who are eager to improve and professionalize.

I simply do not believe there are 12k Somali troops. In none of the newsreel I have watched, reliant on ANISOM protection, has there been any Somali soldiers in view.

jmm99
10-09-2013, 06:59 PM
From the WP, Heeding new counterterror guidelines, U.S. forces backed off in Somalia raid (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/using-new-counterterror-guidelines-us-forces-backed-off-in-somalia-raid/2013/10/07/9fe102d4-2f84-11e3-8906-3daa2bcde110_story.html) (by Karen DeYoung, October 7, 2013).

First, as to the ROEs:


When Navy SEALs were met with gunfire as they attempted a raid on a seaside militant compound in southern Somalia early Saturday, the commander of the operation had the authority to call in a U.S. airstrike. Instead, he opted to retreat.

The site had been under surveillance, and the operation against an al-Qaeda-affiliated group had been in the planning stages, for months, current and former Obama administration officials said Monday. A drone strike against the al-Shabab compound had been rejected, officials said, because there were too many women and children inside, the same reason that the commander opted against an airstrike once the operation was underway.

Destroying the compound probably would also have defeated a primary purpose of the mission: to capture, not kill, a Kenyan-born al-Shabab commander named Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir, also known as Ikrima. He has long been on a U.S. “capture or kill” list, along with al-Shabab leader Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr, known as Godane, and was considered the group’s primary planner of attacks outside Somalia.

As they provided more details of the aborted operation in the town of Barawe, current and former administration officials said it was designed within restrictive counterterrorism guidelines that President Obama signed in the spring. Under the 2001 congressional Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the guidelines say that lethal force can be used only when there is a “near certainty that non-combatants will not be injured or killed.”

If civilians had not been present at the compound, a senior administration official said, “we might just as well have done a standoff strike,” hitting the site with missiles launched from piloted or unmanned aircraft. The desire to avoid hitting non-combatants, the official said, “accounts for the fact that ultimately [U.S. forces] disengaged” when they “met resistance.”

If accurate (the actual ROEs haven't been published), the Centcom ROE ("reasonable certainty", given variant meanings) has morphed to "near certainty" - at least in this incarnation. "Near certainty" begins to sound very much like "beyond a reasonable doubt".

That ties in with the second point (both the Somalian and Libyan ops were capture ops):


The guidelines also codify a long-stated but rarely implemented administration preference for capturing rather than killing terrorism targets.

Officials cited the Somalia operation, as well as the capture of an al-Qaeda figure in Tripoli, Libya, on the same day, as proof that the administration is not overly enamored with the relatively risk-free use of drones at the expense of detaining militants to glean intelligence.

“To people who had said we don’t undertake capture operations, here are two,” the senior official said.

No attempt has been made by the administration to justify either operation on other than Laws of War principles. I've no objection to that as such; but, it's interesting that the administration, in effect, recognizes that a state of war exists in the "new" Libya.

Regards

Mike

SWJ Blog
10-10-2013, 05:34 PM
We’ll Always Have Mogadishu: Reflecting On Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/we%E2%80%99ll-always-have-mogadishu-reflecting-on-somalia)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/we%E2%80%99ll-always-have-mogadishu-reflecting-on-somalia) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

carl
10-10-2013, 08:55 PM
Exhibit A in "the emperor really is naked"" http://linkis.com/yaleglobal.yale.edu/PfQD

Marc Grossman was Afpak special rep. And apparently he is totally serious here. Read and weep.

You're right Omar. This thing is incredible. Statements about setting condtions that weren't preconitions but end conditions or Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) to viewing the release of Baradar as an effort by Pakistan (!?) to catalyze the peace process (boy do I hate the phrase 'peace process') to Taliban & Company's continuing to kill people as having "called into question the Taliban’s commitment to creating a peace process, " made me alternately laugh out loud and crash my face into the table in frustrated incredulity.

The most telling part of the whole piece though, and the most amazing, was this "...the war in Afghanistan is going to end politically... If there is ever to be peace in Afghanistan, Afghans will need to talk to other Afghans about the future of Afghanistan." That is true but people like Mr. Grossman don't seem to realize that this kind of exchange-"Surrender now or we'll kill you! Ef off!" BANG.-is a political ending that involves talking just as surely as a nicely refined series of talks held in a 5 star hotel.

We are led by people who can't perceive the real world. This is not good.

omarali50
10-11-2013, 09:37 PM
my comment about Akbar S. Ahmed may not have been immediately clear, so here is a little clarification I wrote to someone elsewhere:

Akbar S Ahmed is an ex-civil servant who has made a career in anthropology and academia selling his "first hand experience" of tribal mores. This book is more or less on that theme. The idea that the Jihadis are basically aggrieved tribal people, upholding their mysterious, exotic tribal code against the modern world. Which, I think, is nonsense. The traditional tribal structures have completely collapsed in the face of modern jihadism and have little or nothing to do with this phenomenon, which was imported into tribal areas by the CIA and ISI and is hardly a tribal innovation. Undeveloped administration and tribal loyalties and notions of honor are indeed part of the reason why they have thrived there, but only a part..and the ungoverned part has more to do with it than the tribal part. Akbar is basically selling the line that all would be well if the West leaves the tribals alone to carry on with their tribal ways. Which is not true. I thought that for a major publication (OK, a left-liberal one, but still) to publish such a laudatory review indicates that Westerners are eager to buy this notion and Akbar is there to sell it to them. He knows what he is doing, being well attuned to what his audience wants to hear. But after you push past the fluff, there is no substance there.
Dr Taqi has a very forgiving review here that may be helpful http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...4-3-2013_pg3_5
Irfan Husain has some background on Akbar S Ahmed http://dawn.com/news/1023105/the-unflattering-truth

davidbfpo
10-19-2013, 11:22 PM
Aidan Hartley recalls a visit to this port town in 1998 and what happened next. Barawe was the port that the SEALS visited recently.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/wild-life/9057561/aidan-hartley-heaven-and-hell-in-somalia/

davidbfpo
10-28-2013, 10:25 PM
A lengthy article, for once, although somewhat reliant on official press briefings:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/28/al-shabaab-somalia-african-union?CMP=twt_gu

SWJ Blog
11-27-2013, 03:00 AM
State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/state-collapse-insurgency-and-counterinsurgency-lessons-from-somalia)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/state-collapse-insurgency-and-counterinsurgency-lessons-from-somalia) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

AdamG
01-27-2014, 02:05 PM
The U.S. military carried out a missile strike in Somalia on Sunday targeting a suspected militant leader with ties to al-Qaeda and al-Shabab, a U.S. military official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The strike took place in southern Somalia, the official said, without offering further information, including the identity of the suspect or whether the strike was believed to have been successful.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-carries-out-airstrike-in-somalia-targeting-suspected-militant-leader-1.2511956

davidbfpo
03-31-2014, 06:31 PM
A way back I posted a reference to the charcoal export trade from Somalia, via Kismayo (then just re-taken from Al-Shabaab) and the surprising difficulties encountered in shutting down a trade - which could aid Al-Shabaab.

This is an update, although few will expect much from Interpol:http://moneyjihad.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/interpol-targets-al-shabaabs-charcoal-smuggling/

davidbfpo
04-04-2014, 08:14 PM
An academic analysis from Georgetown University on the evolution of the insurgency, the authors explanation:
Here, we analyze what can be discerned about the current shape of al-Shabaab’s insurgency from data about all al-Shabaab-related attacks that have been conducted between the group’s loss of its Kismayo stronghold and the end of February 2014. We draw from a Foundation for Defense of Democracies database that attempts to chronicle every reported al-Shabaab-linked attack carried out since al-Shabaab was encircled in Kismayo and stood on the verge of losing the city; the database draws from both the English-language and also the Somali-language press.

Link:http://journal.georgetown.edu/2014/04/03/al-shabaabs-insurgency-in-somalia-a-data-based-snapshot-by-daveed-gartenstein-ross-henry-appel/

JMA
04-08-2014, 01:26 PM
Al-Shabaab publishes alleged photograph of dead French commando (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/9801097/Al-Shabaab-publishes-alleged-photograph-of-dead-French-commando.html)


Al-Qaeda's army in Somalia taunted Francois Hollande's government by publishing photographs of a dead white man they claimed was a French commando killed during a failed hostage rescue mission at the weekend.

davidbfpo
04-08-2014, 09:08 PM
JMA - this report is dated:
14 Jan 2013

Three days later Al-Shabaab announced:
The Somali Islamist group al-Shabab says it has killed French intelligence agent Denis Allex in retaliation for a failed French operation to free him.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21056592

Denis Allex had been captured in July 2009, whilst undercover as a journalist; his colleague managed to escape - no date readily found.

davidbfpo
05-26-2014, 08:04 PM
While the kids play in the street, young adults walk in groups to the city centre to play soccer. They go to a place locally know as Sallax, a centre that hires out fields for various sports, including football and basketball . There are not enough football fields in the city and with everyone at work during the day, Sallax is very popular at night. Games usually last two hours. From my flat, I can often hear the youngsters chatting away past midnight on their way back home.

Link:http://voicesofafrica.co.za/the-mogadishu-you-dont-read-about/

Self-explanatory.

Yes I did note the attack on the parliament building this week.

davidbfpo
08-21-2014, 10:41 PM
Ho hum Somali complaints about the Kenyan military @ Kismayo (port city) have finally been heard:
In an unannounced move by the African Union the AMISOM command in Kismayo has officially been transferred from the Kenyan Defense Forces to Sierra Leonean forces a few weeks ago.

Link:https://www.kenya-today.com/news/charcoal-selling-kdf-removed-head-amison-replaced-disciplined-sierra-leone-military

AdamG
09-02-2014, 03:04 PM
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Al-Shabab's top leader was traveling in one of two vehicles hit Monday night in a U.S. military strike, a member of the Somali Islamic extremist group said Tuesday. The spokesman would not say whether al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane was among the six militants killed. The two vehicles were heading toward the coastal town of Barawe, al-Shabab's main base, when they were hit, Abu Mohammed told The Associated Press.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-military-targets-islamic-extremists-somalia-075926067.html

davidbfpo
09-02-2014, 08:14 PM
A commentary by Clint Watts, on FPRI, after the reported US air strike in Somalia 'Potential Implications of U.S. killing al Shabaab’s Leader In Somalia - Ahmed Godane':http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2014/09/potential-implications-us-killing-al-shabaabs-leader-somalia-ahmed-godane

davidbfpo
09-22-2014, 10:18 PM
Christopher Anzalone, a Canadian PhD student studying Somalia and Al-Shabaab is an acknowledged SME and has a recent article in a Turkish academic journal, which is reproduced on:https://www.academia.edu/8439439/The_Rise_and_Decline_of_al-Shabab_in_Somalia_Turkish_Review_4_no._4_2014_386-395_

The format has defeated my cut & paste skills.

jcustis
12-30-2014, 03:48 PM
Former Special Envoy to Somalia, Ambassador Robert Oakley, passed away at age 83 earlier this month.

davidbfpo
01-03-2015, 10:46 PM
A press report from Somalia, by a Somali reporter, on a previosuly unknown website; on a controversial topic in all insurgencies:
The defection of former al-Shabaab intelligence chief Zaakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi has sparked debate on the Somali government's amnesty offer and the benefits of pardoning al-Shabaab officials who seek to leave the group.

Link:http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/features/2015/01/02/feature-01

davidbfpo
01-28-2015, 09:59 PM
The Somali militant group Al-Shabaab has developed an extensive financial infrastructure. Security actors seeking to disrupt and defeat the group must tackle the financial dimension of its activities.

The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab offers detailed analysis of Al-Shabaab’s sources of revenue and recommends ways forward for using financial instruments to target and disrupt the group. As with Islamic State, undermining the financial management of Al-Shabaab and offering those people subject to its control better governance will be at the heart of the group’s ultimate failure and defeat.
Link:https://www.rusi.org/publications/whitehallreports/ref:O54A2A05DDC85F/

davidbfpo
02-20-2015, 03:23 PM
Sometimes ostensibly sensible measures simply go wrong. I am sure the banks involved fear action by the USG if money transfers lead to Al-Shabaab getting money:
Somali families are panicking and businesses are running short of funds two weeks after the last major U.S. bank stopped transferring money to the fragile Horn of Africa country, development groups said. Somalia has no formal banking system due to decades of war, so Somalis living abroad use money transfer companies to send some $1.3 billion home each year - far more than the country receives in aid, Oxfam and Adeso said in a report on Thursday.


Link:http://news.yahoo.com/somalis-panic-cash-flow-dries-u-remittance-lifeline-075900744--sector.html?

davidbfpo
05-19-2015, 03:06 PM
Spotted by Clints Watts:
In recent years, however, al Shabaab has turned on the foreign fighters in its own ranks, waging a brutal campaign to purge the perceived spies from its midst. An intimate account of the Shabaab civil war was provided to The Intercept in a series of interviews conducted with a current member of al Shabaab and a source who has maintained close contacts with the group.

(Citing the source) I want my voice to be heard. I don’t want others to make the same mistake I did. Especially to the youth who are in the West, I just want to tell them, don’t come to Somalia. This is advice from the bottom of my heart. You will not improve yourself, first of all, and you will not improve the Muslim Ummah in general
Link:https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/05/19/somalia-al-shabaab-foreign-fighter-cia/

davidbfpo
05-20-2015, 07:03 AM
Yesterday an "insider" spoke and today the BBC has a - for them a quite long - report based on a defector:
One of the most senior figures to defect from Somalia's al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab has urged his former colleagues to stop targeting civilians and to begin negotiations with the Somali government.

Forming an alliance with al-Qaeda "was a very big mistake. Our duty at that time was only to liberate Somalia - our interests were local." He added that it had a huge effect and diverted al-Shabab from is purpose.
"Now it turns to terror acts, organised crime... we were against all that. In late 2010/2011 there was a lot of misunderstanding within the core leadership of al-Shabab... in terms of these terrorism events.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32791713

davidbfpo
05-27-2015, 05:57 PM
There are a small number of posts on the Somali charcoal trade, which reportedly assists financing Al-Shabaab and the murky part of the Kenyan Defence Force who did control Kismayo port.

Al-Jazeera has a detailed report, mainly graphs and diagrams:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2015/05/charcoal-al-shabab-black-gold-150526075925833.html?

davidbfpo
11-14-2015, 04:58 PM
This week I listened to Mary Harper, the BBC World Service's Africa Editor at a conference, who is a SME on Somalia and she gave a grim picture of the chances of peace. Her personal website is:http://mary-harper.blogspot.co.uk/


If businessmen want peace in Somalia, it will happen tomorrow. For all the fighters, including ANISOM, it is a good war; the same applies to all the charities and NGO's present.

The refugee camps around Mogadishu are for the minority clans, who are seen as "lower than low" and are looked down upon by all the others.

Sadly all politics and business in Somalia is done by the gun.

Her talk was summarised as:
Notorious for piracy of its coast and the rise of Islamist extremism, Somalia is often considered the world’s most comprehensively failed state. A threat to itself, its neighbours and the wider world. At least, that’s how the country is presented by politicians and in the media. In this insightful talk BBC World Service Africa Editor Mary Harper presents an alternative perspective, explaining that though the country may be a failed state, it’s far from a failed society. In doing so, she reveals what viewing Somalia through the prism of Al-Qaeda obscures – that alternative forms of business, justice, education and local politics have survived and even flourished.
Until the international community start to get Somalia right the consequences will be devastating, and not just for Somalia and the region but for the world.
Link:https://rising.org/programme/getting-somalia-wrong/

davidbfpo
01-25-2016, 10:18 AM
A headline that baffles me somewhat, stumbling along for a failed state means what?

This article is clearly a post-exit, maybe laudatory piece, as it is based on a British diplomat who quietly left his job as the UN secretary general’s Special Representative to Somalia from mid-2013 until December.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/jan/25/somalia-stumbling-bumpy-difficult-path-peace-prosperity-nicholas-kay-al-shabaab

Just as baffling is what did happen last week when a Kenyan base was over-run?
al-Shabab was saying it had killed 100 Kenyan..whilst Kenyan admits four deadLink:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35364593

Or the stinging attack on a beach restaurant @ Mogadishu:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/22/somalia-lido-beach-mogadishu-tweetlidopictures-alshabaab

davidbfpo
02-04-2016, 07:20 PM
An overview by Business Insider on how al-Shabaab simply "keeps on killing", which ends with:
Al Shabaab didn't just bomb a commercial plane. It might also have managed to smuggle an explosive device inside the most heavily guarded location in the entire country. If Shabaab was responsible for the suspected bomb attack, it would mark the first instance of the group detonating a bomb onboard a passenger plane. Like the other two attacks, it would be a gruesome sign of the group's resilience — and of its increasing danger years after the height of its territorial power.

Link:http://uk.businessinsider.com/shabaab-resurgence-somalia-2016-2?r=US&IR=T

davidbfpo
02-06-2016, 07:01 PM
A rare tribute by a Somali to a Somali soldier, actually special forces from the National Intelligence Service Agency (NISA), by a girl survivor of the Lido beach attack:
The soldier was so kind, professional, compassionate, committed and determined to save our lives.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35500825

SWJ Blog
03-07-2016, 08:23 PM
Pentagon: Airstrike Kills 150 Al-Shabab Fighters in Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/pentagon-airstrike-kills-150-al-shabab-fighters-in-somalia)

Entry Excerpt:



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davidbfpo
06-25-2016, 01:07 PM
Not read, just skimmed:
For the first time, a journalist gets access to the Mogadishu camp where about 500 former Somali Shabab members are being held.Link:https://www.thestar.com/news/atkinsonseries/generation911/2016/06/25/inside-the-secret-somalia-rehab-camp-for-former-shabab-members.html

davidbfpo
06-26-2016, 11:55 AM
Oh dear:
Uganda will pull its soldiers out of the African Union mission fighting Islamist group al-Shabab in Somalia, its military chief has said. Gen Katumba Wamala said the decision to withdraw Ugandan troops by December 2017 was taken because of frustration with the Somali army and military advisers from US, UK and Turkey.....Uganda joined Amisom in 2007 and has just over 6,000 troops in the 22,000-strong force.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36606194

After ten years of being present in Somalia I am not surprised at this declaration, although the frustration with the barely functioning Somali army is understandable, blaming the others is odd. IIRC the USA pays most of the cost, historically training has not been in-country.

Of the other contributors, Ethiopia has always been a reluctant ANISOM member, Burundi has good reason to reduce its troop level - as the situation at home is fraught, Kenya has had a "bloody nose" and Djibouti is a new participant.

davidbfpo
11-23-2016, 02:10 PM
A puzzling and rare BBC report on Somali security forces:
Six hundred members of Jubaland state's police force have recently graduated, hundreds more will soon go through training and, for the time being, their efforts have brought security to the streets of Kismayo.The port city in Somalia's southern-most state has managed to avoid the high-profile suicide car bombings and armed assaults on hotels that the capital, Mogadishu, regularly suffers.

(Later) More than 1,000 national troops are in Kismayo, mostly unarmed and un-deployed because of politics.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38003595

davidbfpo
12-19-2016, 07:29 PM
An African commentary on AMISOM:
The successes or failures of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations in Somalia depend on population support. So far, the counterinsurgency strategies in Somalia conducted by AMISOM and its coalition forces, especially the Somali National Army, have been unable to gain the support of the people. Al-Shabaab’s led insurgency has gained popular support among the local-level communities, largely due to the social services and more importantly the local-level security governance it provides, in the absence of a functional state. Link:https://sustainablesecurity.org/2016/12/19/countering-al-shabaab-in-somalia/

As readers will be aware AMISOM can be a rather fragile coalition and that the Somali military are rarely seen or commented upon - alas this article only considers AMISOM.

davidbfpo
01-28-2017, 12:42 PM
Once again a Kenyan base has been attacked, just inside Somalia this time and Al-Shabab spokesman claims:
Islamic militant group says it killed at least 57 soldiers in takeover of peacekeeping base in Kulbiyow, SomaliaCuriously a Somali Army officer at the base comments:
Captain Nur Muhidin, a Somali national army officer stationed in Kulbiyow, said the troops spotted the al-Shabaab convoy before the attack and shelled it with mortars.
Muhidin described an intense firefight that continued for close to an hour before the militants secured the complex. He said the base had been manned by at least 120 Kenyan soldiers deployed with the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and dozens had been killed in the attack. Local forces were also among the casualties.
“We are yet to confirm the number of the Kenya (https://www.theguardian.com/world/kenya) and Somali soldiers lost in this attack. But I can say this was a disaster,”Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/27/al-shabaab-claims-to-have-killed-dozens-of-kenyan-troops-in-somalia

SWJ Blog
04-14-2017, 02:20 AM
VOA Exclusive: Dozens More U.S. Troops Deployed to Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/voa-exclusive-dozens-more-us-troops-deployed-to-somalia)

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davidbfpo
04-27-2017, 11:05 AM
A backgrounder on the multi-national, independent involvement in Somalia, with an aside on Somaliland; notably by Turkey, Qatar and the UAE. With Ethiopia looking on as a 'concerned' neighbour.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39654795

SWJ Blog
10-19-2017, 09:54 AM
Nation Building or Targeted Killings: Tough Choices for U.S. in Somalia (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nation-building-or-targeted-killings-tough-choices-for-us-in-somalia)

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SWJ Blog
11-17-2017, 01:52 PM
U.S. Escalates Somalia Fight While Pentagon Downplays Buildup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/us-escalates-somalia-fight-while-pentagon-downplays-buildup)

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davidbfpo
11-19-2017, 08:18 PM
From Politico an article on a new policy towards Somalia, summed up in this passage:
The new operations also come as a peacekeeping mission spearheaded by the African Union is winding down. That is putting more pressure on the fledgling Somali security forces to confront al-Shabab, a terrorist army allied with Al Qaeda that plays the role of a quasi-government in significant parts of the country.Link:https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/19/troops-somalia-military-buildup-247668

Not easy to confirm to what level AMISOM will reduce to, a few media reports refer to contingents being reduced to a UN "cap" and so leaving some towns in the interior. A recent Newsweek article refers to:
Firstly, AMISOM is scheduled to withdraw from Somalia by 2020. The drawdown due to begin with 1,000 troops leaving in December,Link:http://www.newsweek.com/somalia-war-us-military-president-trump-al-shabab-714622

davidbfpo
12-11-2017, 01:12 PM
A good overview of the Turkish and UAE involvement in the region, primarily in Somalia /Somaliland. I do wonder if they will fare any better than all thsoe before them.
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2017/12/turkey-uae-involvement-horn-africa-changing-region/

There was a BBC Radio report on a small UK team training the Somali Army (SNA), curiously it started with a stark "the Army really is not an army" line. Adding that the UK team have started building barracks for the SNA, as they had none and only afterwards will military training begin.