Inghusetia...To be filed under: How to Make Your Very Own Insurgency

[jenniferro10]

If you are from the US and don't read BBC or blogs, you have probably heard zero about this, but have ya'll seen this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/8287143.stm)?

My "favorite" part:

The security forces have to show they are actively combating the militants, she says. But it is much easier to grab a civilian and dress his corpse up as a militant rather than go into the woods and actually fight the jihadis...In a society in which blood vendettas are part of a man's honour, young male relatives of the deceased have to seek their own justice. They head into the hills to get a gun and take revenge. And while with the extremists, their ideology may shift accordingly.

[Kevin23]

If you are from the US and don't read BBC or blogs, you have probably heard zero about this, but have ya'll seen this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/8287143.stm)?

My "favorite" part:

I've already read this particular story on BBC, and Foreign Policy Magazine had a similar story on Inghusetia and what was occuring there a while back.

My question which is the same one that Foreign Policy posted in regards to Inghusetia is that if brutality by Russian and local forces continues like this. Is it possible that the situation in Inghusetia could spiral out of control and effect the whole region of Central Asia including the situation Afghanistan, if the conditions are right for such a thing to happen?

[davidbfpo]

Kevin23 asked
My question which is the same one that Foreign Policy posted in regards to Inghusetia is that if brutality by Russian and local forces continues like this. Is it possible that the situation in Inghusetia could spiral out of control and effect the whole region of Central Asia including the situation Afghanistan, if the conditions are right for such a thing to happen?

There is no doubt about the local effect of security force brutality on dividing societies and acting as a motor for violence as the only response. Add on the global communication factor and the answer is yes. Whilst reporting such brutality in the region by international and Western media is occassional, I doubt if AQ ignore it. No idea about Al-Jazeera's coverage. The only mitigating factor IMHO is the numbing legacy of the USSR on individuals and societies perception of state power.

Not to overlook the furore over alleged Pakistani state brutality in the Swat Valley.

I listened to the BBC report and they did mention the violence of the militants.

davidbfpo

[tequila]

Ramzan Kadyrov has been put in charge of Ingushetia (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE55M17E20090623?sp=true). The last president, Yunus Bek Yevkurov, was critically injured (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5603746/Assassination-attempt-on-Yunus-Bek-Yevkurov-in-Ingushetia.html#)in a suicide bomb attack. He'd been brought in 2008 to try and clean up the Ingush administration and improve its human rights record. With Kadyrov in charge, I'm guessing the second objective has been thrown overboard.

[omarali50]

In a nicer world, the evil Russian empire would finally withdraw OR would evolve into something more civilized. As it is, God is (mostly) with the big battalions. The Russians are making their own job harder by operating this way, but sophistication and subtlety have never been their strong suit. They conquered this area using a meat grinder and they as long as they are in reasonable health back in Moscow, they could conceivably still hold it using the same. In a counter-insurgency, the most important factor is not who makes more mistakes or even who kills more people, but who is perceived as being the likely victor. Given the history of the region, it is possible that Russia will still be perceived as the likely victor by most of the local people (who remember the last 200 years and can see what the Russians were willing to do in Chechnya). On the other hand, things may fall apart back in Moscow OR the whole region may erupt on a scale so huge that the majority starts to think "the Russians cant possibly chechnya-ize an area ten times the size of Chechnya"...then, the Russians may lose.

[davidbfpo]

The London-based IISS runs a series of seminars on Eurasian security that cover the region from different angles, for e.g. human rights: http://www.iiss.org/programmes/russia-and-eurasia/eurasia-strategy-seminars-/

Alas the seminars do not have podcasts, unlike the main meetings, but may give an indicator of who is an expert on the region and then search again.

(I am an IISS member, but do not attend these meetings. Can't think why but it is usually those on South Asia which I attend).

davidbfpo

[jenniferro10]

here (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/31/Russias_brutal_guerrilla_war?page=full)

[kaur]

If you need insurgency statistics from that region you should Google-translate this article in Russian.

http://www.ng.ru/regions/2009-09-30/2_boinia.html?mthree=9

[kaur]

I doub't that Paul Goble reads this list, but he has translated the article I mentioned in last post :)

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2009/10/window-on-eurasia-military-conflict-in.html