PDA

View Full Version : Pakistani internal security (catch all)



Pages : [1] 2 3

Jedburgh
03-30-2007, 03:14 AM
Moderator's Note

Today a parallel thread 'Operations in Pakistan’s Frontier / Tribal Areas' was merged into this thread, it has become increasingly difficult to separate posts and the title has been amended (ends).


ICG, 29 Mar 07: Pakistan: Karachi's Madrasas and Violent Extremism (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/130_pakistan_karachi_s_madrasas_and_violent_extrem ism.pdf)

...Karachi’s madrasas, which have trained and dispatched jihadi fighters to Afghanistan and Indian-administered Kashmir, offer a valuable case study of government failures and consequences for internal stability and regional and international security. In 2006, the city was rocked by high-profile acts of political violence. In three separate attacks, suicide bombers killed a U.S. diplomat, assassinated the head of the most prominent Shia political group and wiped out the entire leadership of a Sunni militant group locked in a struggle for control over mosques with its Sunni rivals.

Not all madrasas in the city are active centres of jihadi militancy but even those without direct links to violence promote an ideology that provides religious justification for such attacks. Exploiting Karachi’s rapid, unplanned and unregulated urbanisation and its masses of young, disaffected and impoverished citizens, the madrasa sector has grown at an explosive rate over the past two decades. Given the government’s half-hearted reform efforts, these unregulated madrasas contribute to Karachi’s climate of lawlessness in numerous ways – from illegal land encroachment and criminality to violent clashes between rival militant groups and use of the pulpit to spread calls for sectarian and jihadi violence.

The Pakistan government has yet to take any of the overdue and necessary steps to control religious extremism in Karachi and the rest of the country....

kaur
05-24-2007, 08:34 AM
http://bosun.nps.edu/uhtbin/cgisirsi.exe/Thu+May+24+01:32:50+2007+/SIRSI/0/518/0/07Mar_Bell.pdf/Content/1?new_gateway_db=HYPERION

SWCAdmin
05-24-2007, 01:37 PM
Direct access at http://bosun.nps.edu/Archimages/14278.PDF

goesh
07-03-2007, 04:37 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19577341/

"Shooting erupts at radical mosque in Pakistan
At least nine killed, including 2 police officers, soldier, officials say
~
The students later pelted two government buildings, including the Ministry of Environment, with rocks and set them ablaze, and torched a dozen cars in the ministry's lot.
~
The battle marked a major escalation in a six-month standoff at the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, whose clerics have challenged the military-led government by mounting a vigilante anti-vice campaign in Islamabad.
~

Hundreds of police and paramilitary Rangers have taken up position near the mosque in recent days in what officials have said is an effort to contain their activities.
President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said last week that he was ready to raid the mosque, but warned that suicide bombers from a militant group linked to al-Qaida had slipped into the mosque and that the media would blame any bloodbath on the government. "

SWJED
07-06-2007, 08:18 AM
6 July Washington Post - Pakistan Launches Operation Against Radicals in Mosque (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/05/AR2007070500849.html) by Griff Witte.


Pakistani security forces launched a major operation Thursday against radical students holed up in an Islamabad mosque, seeking to end a months-long standoff that has turned bloody in recent days.

Fighting raged in the darkness and continued early Friday, with the pops and cracks of small-arms fire echoing through the silence of a residential neighborhood. Just after 3 a.m., there was a major explosion, followed by an intense round of shooting that lasted nearly half an hour.

The government had earlier been hoping to pressure the students to leave the mosque peacefully, but those negotiations appeared to have broken down.

It was not immediately clear how many people had been killed in the clash, but leaders of the pro-Taliban Red Mosque have said they are prepared to fight to the death. The government, meanwhile, vowed Thursday to settle for nothing less than surrender...

goesh
07-06-2007, 06:05 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19627493/

"Pakistan official: Musharraf’s plane fired on
Intelligence officer contradicts government denials of attack"

Another piece reports explosions at the Red Mosque

SWJED
07-07-2007, 09:05 AM
7 July NY Times - Musharraf’s Plane Fired Upon as Mosque Standoff Continues (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/07/world/asia/07pakistan.html?ref=world) by Salmond Masood and Carlotta Gall.


A burst of gunfire went off as President Pervez Musharraf’s plane took off Friday morning from an airfield in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, near the capital, as the government’s siege of a militant mosque entered its fourth day.

Security officials said they recovered two antiaircraft guns and one submachine gun with a telescopic sight from the rooftop of a house barely a mile from the airport where the shooting had apparently taken place.

It was not immediately clear if there was a link between the shooting and the siege at the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, complex in the heart of the capital, where the leader of the rebellion vowed to fight to the death...

7 July Washington Post - Fear Grows Of Hostage Situation at Red Mosque (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/06/AR2007070600260.html) by Griff Witte.


Security forces ringing a besieged mosque pummeled Islamic radicals with gunfire on Friday, as concern grew that many of those still inside -- including children -- were being held against their will.

Although more than 1,200 people have fled the mosque since the siege began Tuesday, authorities estimated that several hundred remain within. Only a few dozen are suspected to be hard-core radicals; others appear to want to leave but have been prevented from doing so...

Jedburgh
07-10-2007, 12:37 PM
Received via e-mail this morning:

Pakistani Special Forces launched a major operation against those holed up in Lal Mosque this morning at 0400 local using their most advanced military systems, including US Predator Drones and helicopters. Fierce fighting is reported inside the buildings within the compound. Military reports state that at least 40 security forces personnel and over 70 Lal Mosque students have been killed in the operation which is still ongoing. It was also reported that the operation is expected to be complete within a matter of hours.

Monday night the government revoked the relaxation of the curfew re-enforcing the curfew for an indefinite period in Sector G-6. G-6 has been completely sealed off by the security forces and all hospitals are reportedly under their control. The media have also been strictly forbidden to enter into the area.

The security situation in Islamabad remains extremely tense and a minimum presence observed in most all business centers. Roads leading to the city have been blocked by the military but routes leaving the city, including the main route to the airport remain open with stringent checking of vehicles at military checkpoints.

Sarajevo071
09-02-2007, 04:11 PM
I didn't see any mention of this here. Thought it will be interesting for some.

Sorry if is re-post.


Taliban Ambushes Pakistani Convoy, Seizes 100 Troops

In an audacious display of force, Taliban fighters on Thursday ambushed a convoy of military vehicles in a remote tribal area and took more than 100 Pakistani troops hostage, local officials said.

The convoy of more than a dozen vehicles was traveling between two towns in the South Waziristan area, near the Afghan border, when it was overtaken by fighters, officials said.

"Our group has surrounded and disarmed the convoy of Pakistani soldiers and they have been made hostages," said Zulfiqar Mehsud, a purported Taliban spokesman.

Mehsud, who said the troops had been taken to "our prisons," accused the government of violating a pledge not to send soldiers into the area. He said the Taliban had meticulously planned the ambush.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/30/AR2007083001395.html



Confusion over missing Pakistanis

The fate of scores of Pakistani troops missing near the Afghan border is in doubt amid conflicting claims from militants and the army.

Pro-Taleban rebels say they are holding 300 men in South Waziristan after surrounding and disarming them.

The army said no troops were seized, but about 100 men could not move as they were caught up in fighting between militants and pro-government tribesmen.

Reports say frantic talks are going on to secure the men a passage to safety.

...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6973387.stm



Over 200 soldiers in captivity of militants
Colonel, nine other officers among hostages

Some 208 soldiers of the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps are in the custody of tribal militants led by their commander Baitullah Mahsud in South Waziristan Agency, credible sources told The News on Friday.

Despite repeated denials by the government till Friday that the soldiers had been taken hostage, people close to the militants confirmed to The News that the militants had seized 208 security personnel.

The government on Friday sent a 50-member Jirga comprising prominent tribal elders and Ulema from all the three subsections of the Mahsud tribe and people from the 21-member peace committee to the militants to persuade them to release the kidnapped security personnel without any condition.

The militants claimed they had been promised complete withdrawal of security forces from Ladha and other areas inhabited by the Mahsud tribesmen after recent talks between them and the 21-member peace committee and Mahsud tribal grand Jirga under which they had released the 19 kidnapped FC personnel.

“Instead of withdrawal, the government wanted to deploy more troops in the area for likely action against them (militants),” said the sources while quoting tribal militants as saying. They said the militants admitted to have kidnapped all the 208 security personnel and shifted them to their hideouts.

...

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=9870



Govt pushes for talks to get troops freed: ‘Soldiers surrendered without firing a shot’

With the government appearing in disarray over the seizure of more than 150 soldiers in the restive South Waziristan tribal agency, militants on Friday seized in the Frontier Region’s Jandola area four vehicles along with five drivers. The vehicles were carrying rations for security forces.

Though the exact number of missing soldiers was yet to be confirmed, security officials put the number at 156.

However, tribal sources claimed that the number of security personnel held hostage was about 205, including 105 regular troops and 100 personnel of the Frontier Corps. A colonel, three majors and some captains were among the personnel seized by militants.

...

http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/01/top1.htm

marct
09-02-2007, 04:26 PM
Thanks Sarajevo! Given how important the area is, getting good information on what's happening there is really important. What is your take on this?

Marc

Sarajevo071
09-02-2007, 08:52 PM
You are welcome. I thought maybe it could be important piece of news.

To be honest with you, I have no idea what to think... Or mujahideen there are that strong or Pakistani army is that weak. Or is some kind game/deal. It would be the first time. Seams it was not attack with casualties but rather surrender and grab. Prelude for something else? Musharaf is slowly going down. Maybe he have something in mind?

Sarajevo071
09-02-2007, 09:13 PM
Talks on release of kidnapped troops begin

As a tribal jirga went into talks with hostage-takers, the government - changing its earlier position - has held Mehsud tribesmen responsible for the kidnapping of army and paramilitary personnel in the volatile South Waziristan region.

As the number of soldiers in captivity increased to more than 200, government officials alleged local Taliban - led by commander Baitullah Mehsud - were behind the hostage drama. On Friday, the miscreants seized four vehicles carrying rations for security forces along with five drivers in the Jandola area.

About army 205 army and Frontier Corps personnel were being held hostage by the militants, residents claimed, saying a colonel, three majors and four captains were among the captives. The kidnappers accused the authorities of failing to keep its promise of withdrawing troops from the Mehsud-inhabited areas in return for the 19 security men freed earlier in the week.

http://www.pajhwak.com/viewstory.asp?lng=eng&id=42063

davidbfpo
09-02-2007, 10:11 PM
I read earlier this week that a party of Frontier Corps (para-military and locally raised troops) had been seized and one has been shown being beheaded by teenagers on video. Then there was a story they had been released.

Nothing like intimidation to stop local troops doing nothing.

Seizing a larger group, almost sounds like a convoy / company sized, with more officers than normal is very different. History shows many Imperial era convoys got seriously damaged when in transit, although I cannot recall a surrender.

Loss of will to resist sounds like the best explanation. Where was the support for them? Was the route picqueted?

Not a good sign for the national Pakistan government and should lead to the Army thinking hard - what happened?

davidbfpo

TROUFION
09-03-2007, 06:54 PM
The surrender without firing a shot is more on line with the reaction of UN Peacekeepers (note Senegal in 1999-2000), perhaps the Pakistanis have learned the wrong leasons. Or perhaps the border guards, not the best troops and lacking in the will to resist just got sold out. Not a good sign no matter how you cut it.

Sarajevo071
09-03-2007, 11:46 PM
I read earlier this week that a party of Frontier Corps (para-military and locally raised troops) had been seized and one has been shown being beheaded by teenagers on video. Then there was a story they had been released.

You are talking about these soldiers, right?


Militants Free 19 Pakistani Hostages
By SADAQAT JAN
The Associated Press
Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Militants on Tuesday released 18 soldiers and a Pakistani government official kidnapped near the Afghan border earlier this month, the army and the militants said.

Army spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad said the hostages were released in South Waziristan, a stronghold of pro-Taliban militants in Pakistan's lawless frontier region.

A militant leader, Rehmanullah Mehsud, said the captives were handed over to tribal elders in Kaniguram, a village north of Wana, South Waziristan's main town.

"Now they are heading to Wana to be handed over to government officials," Mehsud told The Associated Press by telephone.

The kidnappers had reportedly demanded the release of jailed comrades and a pullback of army troops in negotiations carried out through lawmakers for an Islamist political party.

However, Arshad said on Geo television news that the hostages were released unconditionally.

Militants seized 16 paramilitary soldiers after they left their base in a van on Aug. 9. One was later decapitated and his body dumped in a soccer field in the town of Jandola.

The other freed men were an army colonel, two soldiers and a security official seized last week near Laddha, another village in South Waziristan.
...

Sarajevo071
09-03-2007, 11:52 PM
In mean time (update):


Militants link soldiers’ release to pullout
Monday, September 03, 2007
By Mushtaq Yusufzai & Sailab Mahsud

Tribal militants holding around 300 security personnel hostage in South Waziristan on Sunday made their release conditional to withdrawal of troops from the tribal areas besides release of their 15 comrades. They also claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of 10 FC soldiers from Mohmand Agency on Saturday evening.

Also, a bomb blast in Wana claimed the lives of four persons and injured 13 others Sunday. As the row between the Army and the tribal militants deepens, the authorities have put the Army on alert for launching a major operation against the tribal militants if they fail to release the abducted soldiers without any condition.

Tribal sources told The News from Wana, the headquarters of South Waziristan Agency, that a 100-member Jirga comprising prominent tribal elders from all the three subsections of Mahsud tribe and 21-member peace committee headed by JUI-F MNA Maulana Merajuddin returned to the town after holding unsuccessful talks with tribal militants in Ladha over the release of held soldiers.

The Jirga met with militant commanders including Baitullah Mahsud, Qari Hussain and Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani at an undisclosed location in Ladha subdivision on Saturday evening and exchanged views with them on contentious issues, including the release of the held soldiers. On their arrival in Wana on Sunday, the Jirga members were received by senior officials of the political administration, Army and FC at the Civil Colony.

Briefing government officials about the outcome of their negotiations, Maulana Merajuddin said militants who earlier demanded the release of their 10 colleagues had now increased their number to 15. He said the militants claimed that these men were in the custody of the government on various charges. The government would have to release all of them if it wanted the safe return of the held soldiers and restoration of peace in the region.

The militants also demanded implementation of the Sara Rogha peace agreement signed between the government and Mahsud tribal militants on February 9, 2005, under which militants claimed they were promised that security forces would not be deployed in the Mahsud inhabited areas besides removal of the forces checkpoints. The agreement, they stressed, also called for the withdrawal of Army from the agency. By stressing the need for implementation of the Sara Rogha peace accord, the militants in fact wanted complete command and control over the area.

Similarly, they demanded that military officials would inform militants through the political administration about the troops movement in their areas so that they could take possible arrangements for their safe passage.

The militants further told the Jirga that the government would have to release all the Mahsud tribesmen taken into custody during the past few days in the wake of soldiers’ abduction under territorial responsibility clause of the Frontier Crimes Regulations.
....

more here:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=9898



Jirga fails to secure release of soldiers
September 03, 2007 Monday
By Alamgir Bhittani and Shams Momand

Local Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud has linked the release of over 150 soldiers taken hostage on Aug 30 to the implementation of the Sararogha agreement signed in Feb 2005, Zulfiqar Mehsud, a spokesman for the commander, said on Sunday.

The agreement requires the government to grant amnesty to the militant commander and restrains Baitullah Mehsud from protecting and assisting foreign militants, attacking government officials and installations or blocking development projects in the area.

But militants claim that a clause, which is not included in the written agreement, requires security forces to stop their movements in the Mehsud-dominated area of South Waziristan.

Militants dispute the figure of 150 hostages given by the government and claim to have seized 300 soldiers.

The spokesman also claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of 10 personnel of the Frontier Corps in the Mohmand Agency, and warned of suicide attacks if the government started military operations in tribal areas.

“Our foremost demand is the implementation of the Sararogha agreement, which binds the government to contain the movement of troops in South Waziristan,” he said.

Sources said that talks between members of a tribal jirga and militants for the release of over 150 security personnel had failed. The 50-member jirga headed by Senator Salih Shah went to Wana from Laddah and briefed Political Agent Hussainzada Khan on Sunday on talks held with militants.

The sources said that militants had told the elders of the Mehsud tribe that further talks were meaningless till the previous agreement was honoured.
...

more here:
http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/03/top1.htm

Sarajevo071
09-05-2007, 10:48 PM
Militants withdraw threat to behead abducted soldiers
by Mushtaq Yusufzai & Sailab Mahsud

A pro-Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal tribal senator said on Monday the militant commander holding 300 soldiers hostage in South Waziristan had withdrawn his threat to behead five soldiers a day due to the efforts of a Jirga.

Senator Maulana Saleh Shah, who belongs to South Waziristan and is affiliated to the JUI-F and MMA, is heading a 100-member Jirga to secure release of the abducted soldiers. He said commander of the militants had earlier conveyed to the Jirga that he would start killing five soldiers every day and send their bodies to the Pakistan Army base at the Frontier Corps (FC) Fort in Jandola.

Shah was part of the Jirga that held extensive talks with the militants to secure the release of around 300 security personnel, who were taken hostage by the militants last Thursday along with 16 vehicles and ammunitions in South Waziristan.

He said Commander Baitullah Mahsud was angry over the detention of his tribesmen by the government and threatened to behead five hostages daily if the government did not release all of them and stopped their arrest.

The Maulana said the militants at the request of the Jirga withdrew their threat and asked them to convoy their message to the government officials to immediately release all the innocent detained tribal people.

As a sign of goodwill gesture the government on Monday released all the 80 Mahsud tribesmen, arrested under territorial responsibility clause of the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR). They had been arrested soon after the security personnel were made hostages by the tribal militants in their area.
...

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=9916


Govt yielding to pressure; 100 tribesmen freed: Troops held hostage number about 300
by Ismail Khan

Militants holding hundreds of soldiers hostage have demanded withdrawal of forces from the restive South Waziristan tribal region and release of 15 alleged would-be suicide bombers in government custody, an official told Dawn.

“The militants have made certain demands but it does not mean that we will accept them. It will be managed,” the official said.

He acknowledged that the Taliban were holding close to 300 army and paramilitary personnel, including some senior officers.

Maulana Esamuddin, a member of the Mehsud tribal jirga, endorsed the official’s statement and said the authorities had asked them to help secure the release of 270 troops.
...

http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/04/top1.htm

Tacitus
09-05-2007, 11:43 PM
Click on this link to listen to their report.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14191419

From the people they interivew, the mood in Pakistan is "anger and embarassment."

If that many soldiers can be taken without even firing a shot, it makes you wonder. Either about the fighting capability of the army, or their loyalty (or lack of?) to the government, maybe some of both. Considering the report of political unrest there lately, if I was thinking about plotting a coup d'etat, the time would seem right.

I wonder what India to the south thinks about the fighting capacity of the Pakistani army.

Sarajevo071
09-06-2007, 06:21 AM
Thank you for the link.

BTW, don't you think that Paki Army would behave differently if they fight Indian Army and not they own people? I think many in Paki Army and police have struggle with what's going on and where they stand. It's not easy to shoot your own people.

davidbfpo
09-06-2007, 09:14 PM
Thanks to Sarajevo for the source material.

I fear the worst with these incidents, either the Pakistani Army will go neutral - which means doing even less than before. Or it will be assertive, even launching operations. Even the most Islamic soldier, or officer should not accept the beheading of a FC para-military. Yes, I say this from the comfort of my "armchair" and rely on my reading of Imperial history.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
09-06-2007, 09:57 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/06/wpakistan106.xml

Pakistan army helicopter kills militants

A Pakistan army helicopter has attacked a vehicle carrying suspected pro-Taliban tribesmen as uncertainty grew over the fate of over 100 Pakistani soldiers captured by militants in the tribal areas. Officials said four militants and two passers-by were killed in the strike near the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan, notorious as a safe haven for militants, including Arabs and Central Asians.(more on the link about background).

Sarajevo071
09-06-2007, 11:48 PM
Thanks to Sarajevo for the source material.

I fear the worst with these incidents, either the Pakistani Army will go neutral - which means doing even less than before. Or it will be assertive, even launching operations. Even the most Islamic soldier, or officer should not accept the beheading of a FC para-military. Yes, I say this from the comfort of my "armchair" and rely on my reading of Imperial history.

davidbfpo

You are welcome. I thought it is important development.

I agree with you on above observations on beheadings. I honestly never understand people like that... Seams to me that things will boil over soon and some kind of conflict will start. I am looking at this through they political crisis and imminent end of Musharraf's dictatorship.

JJackson
09-08-2007, 03:45 PM
I have been following this one too but scanning for updates I am drawing a blank. The story has gone cold nothing on The Dawn, BBC, Reuters etc. - at least that I found - anyone got an update?

P.S. For those interested in the flux in Pakistani politics and its ramifications for Afghanistan see
Generals Waiting in the wings: http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/07/top4.htm and
Humour - Pakistan-style: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6984262.stm

JJackson
09-11-2007, 10:44 AM
Ok I seem to have now found something.


Pro-Taliban fighters have freed more than 260 Pakistani troops who were kidnapped nearly two weeks ago in the tribal region on the border with Afghanistan.

A local intelligence official said the soldiers were handed over to members of a jirga, or tribal council on Monday.


http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9D8F55A6-4B33-4F0F-981E-FA91E72CD7B4.htm

davidbfpo
09-11-2007, 09:05 PM
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\09\11\story_11-9-2007_pg7_1

Army hostage release deal fails - from Pakistani paper.

davidbfpo
(added more general items on Pakistan elsewhere)

Jedburgh
09-12-2007, 02:37 PM
Asia Policy, Jul 07: Militant Recruitment in Pakistan: A New Look at the Militancy-Madrasah Connection (http://nbr.org/publications/asia_policy/AP4/AP4%20Fair.pdf)

• With respect to intelligence collection and analysis, asking whether or not madaris produce militants is the wrong question. Querying the educational and other characteristics of key tanzeem (militant group) operatives, while keeping in mind the impacts of group efforts to select for desired skills and capabilities, will inform counterterrorism efforts more effectively.

• A number of implications are pertinent to U.S. policy toward Pakistan and the threat posed by Pakistan-based terrorism to U.S. interests:

- The U.S. can act unilaterally against known militant madaris only at great cost to other objectives (e.g., Musharraf ’s safety); Pakistan will cooperate in this regard only with varying degrees of commitment, limited capability, and diminished respect for rule of law and human rights.

- Pakistan’s entire education system requires comprehensive reform; such reform may be beyond Pakistan’s capability and there may be only limited scope for the United States to help. Increased participation by multinational organizations and demand for accountability by all partners are required to complete this daunting task. The costs of failure are too high to countenance.

- Because efforts to restrict the supply of terrorism have rapidly diminishing margins of return, interventions to reduce demand for terrorism are needed.

- Madaris merit continual observation as they may contribute both to the demand for terrorism and to the limited supply of militants. For the same reasons, Pakistan’s public school sector deserves much more attention than it currently enjoys.

davidbfpo
09-17-2007, 09:10 PM
On the BBC News website Pakistani troops clash with militants and the militants execute sixteen captured soldiers, for full story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6999329.stm

This happened last Thursday.

davidbfpo

Sarajevo071
09-21-2007, 06:30 AM
Release of 100 soldiers likely today
Troops vacate two South Waziristan posts, to withdraw from third today



The Pakistan Army pulled out from two of the three posts in the restive South Waziristan Agency after days of negotiations with the tribal militants, thus, paving the way for the release of around 300 security personnel held captive by the militants, a tribal Jirga disclosed on Tuesday.

All the three posts are located in the Mahsud-inhabited tribal territory. According to the Jirga sources, after vacating the two strategic posts, the tribal militants led by Commander Baitullah Mahsud would fulfill their commitment on phased release of the held soldiers. In the first phase, the militants were to release around 100 soldiers either on Tuesday night or today (Wednesday).

When contacted on phone, Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Maj Gen Waheed Arshad told The News that troops were not deployed at the two posts mentioned by the Jirga members. He, however, said that from one of those posts, the forces were relocated which often takes place in the region according to requirements.
...

http://www.leemedia.net/links.php?url=http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=10191

Sarajevo071
09-21-2007, 06:32 AM
Seven more FC men kidnapped in Tall


Seven more Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel were kidnapped by the militants after an attack on their check post in Tall near Mir Ali late on Tuesday night, while a held FC soldier was killed and three others fled to Bannu on Wednesday.

The check post is six kilometres from the FC fort on the Hangu-Waziristan road near the Tall town. The abducted personnel include Havaldar Piao Khan, Sepoy Safeerullah, Aqeel, Raza Khan, Noor Jehan and Noor Khan. The identity of the 7th soldier could not be ascertained.
...

In South Waziristan, a Jirga negotiating the release of around 300 security personnel refused to accept 10 detainees against the 100 agreed upon earlier and returned to Wana empty-handed.

The militants had agreed to release one-third of the captive security personnel in talks with the Jirga earlier after the Army pulled out of two security posts in the Mahsud areas. The Jirga, headed by a pro-MMA MNA, Maulana Merajuddin Qureshi, went to Mulla Khan Serai near Barwand in Tiarza subdivision on Wednesday morning for decisive talks with the militants but was disappointed when they found the militants led by Baitullah Mahsud missing from the meeting.
...

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=10216

tequila
10-09-2007, 12:37 PM
Battle, airstrikes kill 250 in Pakistan (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/09/AR2007100900469_pf.html)- Washington Post, 9 Oct.


Fierce fighting between Islamic militants and security forces near the Afghan border has killed as many as 250 people over four days. The battles marked some of the deadliest clashes on Pakistani soil since it threw its support behind the U.S.-led war on terrorism in 2001, the army said Tuesday.

Airstrikes hit a village bazaar in North Waziristan tribal region on Tuesday afternoon, killing more than 50 militants and civilians and wounding scores more, said resident Noor Hassan. "The bombing destroyed many shops and homes," Hassan said by telephone from the village of Epi. "We are leaving."

...

The fighting began Saturday after a roadside bomb hit a truckload of paramilitary troops, sparking bitter clashes. The bodies of dozens of soldiers, many with their throats slit, have been recovered from deserted areas of the region, fleeing residents said.

The violence comes as Gen. Pervez Musharraf tries to secure another term as president, vowing to shore up Pakistan's troubled effort against Islamic extremism.

The army appeared to be resorting to heavy firepower. Pakistani troops have suffered mounting losses as they try to reassert state authority in a swath of mountainous territory where warlords supportive of the Taliban and al-Qaida have seized control.

Before Tuesday's airstrikes, the army had reported that battles have killed 150 fighters and 45 soldiers since Saturday. About 12-15 troops are missing. Another 50 militants and 20 soldiers had been wounded.
Security forces have rejected a cease-fire proposed by the militants and will "continue punitive action till complete peace is restored" in the area, an army statement said ...

davidbfpo
10-09-2007, 08:42 PM
The Pakistani "stop & go" policy at work and timed to coincide with the re-election of President Musharraf I'd say. Will the action continue? Watch and wait.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
10-10-2007, 05:42 PM
An interesting review article on Pakistan, with references to aspects I've missed:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/10/pakistani_nightmare.html

Not read of the journalist before.

davidbfpo

JJackson
10-11-2007, 01:35 PM
Pakistan rebels display hostages

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7039101.stm

Jedburgh
11-08-2007, 02:14 PM
The Long War Journal, 7 Nov 07: Taliban Continue March Under Musharraf's State of Emergency (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/11/taliban_continue_mar.php)

President Pervez Musharraf's state of emergency five days ago has done little to curb the Taliban's march in the Northwest Frontier Province. As the security forces continue to arrest opposition leader and work to curb protests in the major cities, The Taliban have taken control of two more major towns in the settled district of Swat, while attacks continue elsewhere in the Northwest Frontier Province.

On November 6, the Taliban overran police stations in and around the town of Matta in Swat.....

davidbfpo
11-08-2007, 08:45 PM
This link to Bill Roggio's article should be delivered to all decision-makers on policy towards Pakistan.

The prisoner exchange is amazing, especially the timing with a state of emergency, although not a suprise.

davidbfpo

goesh
11-09-2007, 01:46 PM
With Bhutto under house arrest and refugees fleeing the Swat valley, some of whom are demanding action from the Boss, it looks like a green light to finally settle some old scores - we sure don't want the taliban near the nukes. I do note there is no call for Bhutto to solve the Taliban/fundamentalist problem which leaves some observors believing she would be willing to share lots of power with them, assuming she was ever allowed to be in such a position.

Brian Hanley
11-10-2007, 03:03 AM
... Musharraf is the inheritor of the power base built by Zia, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Zia-ul-Haq) who used the Islamists and catered to them to gain and keep power and developed the Taliban with money from the CIA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Origin) (Also: Charlie Wilson's War). They were high up in Musharraf's administration, he had to can some right after 9-11. Bhutto is the inheritor of the electoral base that her late father had which is centrists and secularist middle class. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benazir_Bhutto

The Islamists can be relied on to do everything possible to kill Bhutto because Pakistan is the last real chance the Taliban/Al Qaeda ("Shade of the Koran" is the inspiration for bin Laden and other radicals http://www.youngmuslims.ca/online_library/tafsir/syed_qutb/) have to get power. If she shares power with Musharraf (which her dedicated supporters are enraged by) that gives Musharraf a way to survive and make use of a political base that can go after the Islamists. (Or at least keep them in check.) They don't like this idea at all.

This link discusses that power sharing deal from an Islamist point of view. It makes clear that Musharraf is losing his grip on power because he is going after the Islamists. (http://quranbible.wordpress.com/2007/10/20/pervez-musharraf-and-benazir-bhutto-power-sharing-deal/)

( My general observation, militants make better allies than pacifist middle class who just want a nice life.)

Sarajevo071
11-10-2007, 04:59 PM
200 security personnel surrender to militants in Pakistan


Two hundred paramilitary personnel have surrendered to pro-Taliban militants in the troubled Swat valley, in a major embarrassment to Pakistan government which has been pushed on the backfoot in its operation to root out extremists from the northwestern tribal areas.

The 200 men of the Frontier Corps surrendered to militants led by radical cleric Maulana Fazlullah on Thursday night after their camp in the Matta area was surrounded by the extremists who are demanding imposition of strict islamic law or Shariat and have strengthened their hold on the region by driving out most security forces.
...

The rebels control six tehsils or sub-districts or almost 80 per cent of the scenic Swat valley, till recently a popular tourist destination.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Pakistan/200_security_personnel_surrender_to_militants_in_P ak/articleshow/2530410.cms

Jedburgh
11-17-2007, 02:23 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 13 Nov 07:

Pakistan Loses Swat to Local Taliban (http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373782)

In recent weeks large swathes of Pakistan’s idyllic mountainous region of Swat—a mere 90 miles from Islamabad—have fallen to militants purportedly led by Maulana Fazlullah, whose Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shari’at-e-Mohammad (Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws, or TNSM) shaheen (fighters) may number as many as 4,500. Swat’s residents are fleeing to safer ground as the security forces, largely comprised of the poorly trained and under-equipped Frontier Corps, are no match for Fazlullah and his following of belligerents. With Swat and other areas increasingly in the hands of militants (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/11/fighting_intensifies.php), Pakistanis must rise to the challenge of combating an ideology that is fast encroaching into more settled areas.....

.... On November 3, President Pervez Musharraf declared martial law, ostensibly to help fight terrorism. While lawyers, opposition party members, and human rights activists were arrested, Musharraf’s government released more than two dozen Islamists from jail. Reportedly, among those released was Mullah Obaidullah Akhund (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/03/mullah_obaidullah_ak.php)—the highest ranking Taliban official captured by Pakistani forces. Obaidullah was arrested in February 2007, coincident with U.S. Vice President Cheney’s visit to Pakistan to protest Pakistani insouciance towards the Taliban. In exchange for releasing these important Taliban operatives, Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud agreed to release the last of the 211 surviving troops taken hostage in Waziristan in late August. With the under-equipped and ill-prepared security forces already demoralized by a war that pits them against their fellow countrymen and in many cases against co-ethnics and fellow tribesmen, Musharraf’s actions are not likely to foster confidence and morale amongst his military. Yet this is exactly what is needed if Pakistani forces are to rally to the cause of tackling the Taliban.

Jedburgh
01-18-2008, 02:53 PM
The Long War Journal, 17 Jan 08: Pakistani Troops Abandon Second Fort in South Waziristan (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/01/pakistani_troops_aba.php)

......The attack on the Sararogha fort, the capture of a company of Pakistani troops in South Waziristan in September 2007, and the Taliban opposition to a Pakistani military incursion in South Waziristan highlight the Taliban's ability to stand up to the Pakistani military in a conventional fight. The rise of the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas during 2006 and 2007 and the subsequent peace deals in North and South Waziristan, Mohmand, and Swat have given the Taliban and al Qaeda the time and space to organize along military lines and stand toe-to-toe with the Pakistani military. Coupled with the intense suicide campaign that has been ongoing since late 2006 and the strikes focusing on secure military bases housing nuclear weapons, the Taliban and al Qaeda are vying for control of the Pakistani state.
Edit to add related article from the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 22 Jan 08:

Pakistan’s Frontier Corps Struggles to Hold Forts against Taliban Attacks (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373914)

On the night of January 15, the Sararogha Fort manned by Pakistan’s paramilitary Frontier Corps (http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/11/17adf4ef-d13a-4991-8fd3-98c6d2dc444c.html) fell to Islamic militants in a remote part of the South Waziristan tribal region bordering Afghanistan. It was the first time in the 60-year history of the country that a military fort was lost to a non-state group and had most of its defenders killed or captured.

This was the second embarrassing defeat in recent months for Pakistan’s armed forces in South Waziristan, where military operations were launched in early 2004 to hunt down militants suspected of links with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. On August 30 last year, some 300 besieged Pakistan Army soldiers surrendered without firing a shot to the same group of tribal militants led by Pakistani Taliban military commander Baitullah Mehsud. They were held hostage for more than two months and were exchanged on November 4 for 25 of Mehsud’s men as a result of mediation by the 21-member jirga (council) of tribal elders and clerics belonging to the Mehsud Pashtun tribe.....

SWJED
01-31-2008, 01:35 AM
Moderator's Note: An old thread 'Waziristan: campaigning in the past and soon?' has been merged into this thread.


Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Dust-up along the North-West Frontier (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/01/operations-in-pakistans-tribal/) by William McCallister at SWJ Blog.


Ideas as to what constitutes good governance various among individuals, groups and cultures. The current definition of good governance as outlined in a recent report on threats from safe havens and ungoverned areas is a case in point. The report defines governance as the “delivery of security, judicial, legal, regulatory, intelligence, economic, administration, social and political goods and public services, and the institutions through which they are delivered”. The definition implies a social service centric function for government emphasizing “delivery” and distribution of social services. It further implies that only democratic institutions are a safeguard against militancy, extremism and terrorism. Not all cultures view the role and function of government in quite the same way. Tribal society, particularly along the North-West frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan judges the role and function of effective government quite differently...

Ray
02-01-2008, 05:38 AM
An excellent read.

The SWJ "Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas:Dust-up along the North-West Frontier" by William S. McCallister is one of the finest articles that has covered the psyche that governs the lawless badlands of western part of Pakistan.

Indeed, Pakistan is a curious mix of tribalism, feudalism, modernity, military supremacy and an attempt at democracy. It is an interesting pot pourri that does not mix and exude a pleasant aroma.

Pakistan is a country that has a serious identity crisis. It rejects its Indian past and is struggles to conjure an exclusiveness of being a historical separate indentity called the Indus Valley civilisation. This in fact encourages a further schism wherein the Mohajirs (immigrants from India due to the Partition) are forgotten and slighted! Interestingly, this search for a new identity ignores the fact that a large part of the Moslem population of pre Independent India were low caste convertees (to be free of the horrid caste system) or those who were converted to avoid the subjugation through the jezia (unbearable tax on non Moslem) or because of the Sword!

Thus, Pakistan is actually at war with itself and seized with a national schizophrenia, in a manner of speaking!

Jinnah, the Founder of Pakistan, was initially with the Congress Party and was not really concerned about the Moslem cause. But like all politicians when he realised that he could not wrest power from Gandhi and others, he took up the cause of Moslem's and for a separate homeland for the Moslems. It was merely a power quest that worked itself into a powerful political movement that brought about the birth of Pakistan. It was but a fait accompli without a solid foundation in reality of existence.

It is important to note what Jinnah had said in the inaugural address of the Pakistan Parliament. He had said:

We should begin to work in that spirit and in course of time all these angularities of the majority and minority communities, the Hindu community and the Muslim community, because even as regards Muslims you have Pathans, Punjabis, Shias, Sunnis and so on, and among the Hindus you have Brahmins, Vashnavas, Khatris, also Bengalis, Madrasis and so on, will vanish......

Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.

This indicates that Jinnah's main aim was for power and not for Islam!

The birth of Pakistan though rejoiced by the Moslems of India, actually put into place a power struggle amongst the various segments. The Mohajirs being more educated than those who were from the parts that became Pakistan took all the plum posts in the bureaucracy, judiciary, education etc. The actually population of what became West Pakistan, steeped in feudalism and power as the land owning "aristocracy" and the backbone of the Indian Army felt threatened. This is the genesis of the struggle in Pakistan between the military and democracy.

The Mohajirs , who were rootless but intelligent, realised that there had to be a common cause wherein their legitimacy as inheritors of the promised land was not up for the grabs, used Islam as the catch all for all eventualities. Given that Pakistan was created for Moslems, the military and the landed satraps could not contest this excellent ploy.

Kashmir came handy for the military, who used the Mohajir inspired identity of Islam to the hilt. The military sprang into action as the true defender of Islam and went to war. This ensured that the exchequer became military oriented and beholden to it for defending Islam, as the sword arm, and extracted their pound of flesh.

Islam being partial to an aggressive mindset accepted the military's domination over democratic norms and thus this psyche gave legitimacy to successive military govt and its stranglehold over the economy wherein the army put its finger in every economic pie. It also turned the Nelson's eye to the military's infiltration and thus stranglehold over the bureaucracy by appointing serving and retired military officers in important bureaucratic and economic appointments.

This unholy churn and mismatch of governance is the cause of Pakistan's woe wherein the democratic institutions and norms have been sabotage and totally put out of shape.

While Islam ruled supreme in Pakistan, it had not yet been encased ''in the show window''.

It was Zia, who ensured Pakistan breathed and slept Islam! It was again a Machevillian ploy of an illegitimate dictator to legitimise his regime and the US strategic interest in Afghanistan was his Allah given gift.

Zia's "vision" of Islamic predominance of all matters temporal is what has added to the identity crisis. Fundamentalist Wahhabism and the ummah, an unrealistic dream of all Moslems, has seized the people.

Therefore, all one can say is, Quo Vadis, Pakistan?

Jedburgh
02-08-2008, 07:31 PM
The Long War Journal, 7 Feb 08: Pakistan's Interior Minister orders negotiations with Baitullah Mehsud (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/02/pakistans_interior_m.php)

The Pakistani government and the Taliban appear close to signing the next round of "peace" accords to end the fighting in the tribal areas and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. Pakistan's Interior Minister stated a deal can be made with Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, while Baitullah announces a cease-fire in northwestern Pakistan.

Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz has ordered the formation of a peace jirga, or committee, in order to conduct official talks with the Taliban and Baitullah. “The government, in collaboration with a jirga consisting of influential and local people from the Fata and the Frontier regions, would soon take measures for sustainable peace in the tribal areas," said Nawaz.

Nawaz claimed the government was operating from a position of strength due to military operations. "The demand of initiating a peace process was made by the Mehsuds, who are on the run after being crushed by the security forces in Waziristan," Nawaz said. "[Baitullah] Mehsud has no choice but to agree on the peace deal. It’s a matter of his survival.".....

Jedburgh
04-10-2008, 01:54 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 3 Apr 08:

Tribes and Rebels: The Players in the Balochistan Insurgency (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2374075)

As the violence on Pakistan’s northwest frontier dominates the headlines, a lesser-known insurgency has gripped Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan. Bomb blasts and rocket attacks have become almost daily events in this region: A ten-week period in 2008 saw 76 insurgent-linked incidents reported, claiming the lives of 14 people and wounding 123.

The troubled history of Balochistan dates back to the independence of Pakistan in 1947, beginning as a reaction to the annexation of the princely state of Qalat—later joined to three other states to form modern Balochistan—by Pakistani authorities in 1948. The annexation led to the first Baloch rebellion, which was swiftly put down. The security situation in the region remained fragile as rebellions erupted in 1958, 1973, and most recently in 2005.

Unlike previous anti-government insurrections, it is currently hard to pinpoint one person or group for orchestrating these incidents as there are today several groups in Balochistan potentially interested in challenging the government.....

Ray
04-10-2008, 06:57 PM
This is merely a thought ‘out of the box’, albeit radical, yet may have merits to warrant a discussion.

While there is no doubt that Pakistan is a political entity, which is established and recognised by the comity of nations, yet internally it is, as it appears, battling to find an identity, resulting in the rise of subnationalism and political contradictions and strife.

India, out of which Pakistan was carved, was not single political entity till the British came on the scene. It was a myriad of subnational identities, cultures, traditions and faiths.

Pakistan was created solely on the basis of Faith, while India, espoused a secular constitution. Notwithstanding the secular constitution, India has its movement that are prompted by subnationalism. However, it survives as an entity because of it secular structure and laws.

On the other hand, Pakistan solely depends on its Faith, powerful that it maybe, but it is not powerful enough to extinguish the sub nationalism that festers beneath the superficial layer of Faith. Indeed, if Faith was the be all and end all of a Nation, then Bangladesh would not come into being!

While the Islamic Faith is very potent as a uniting force, it apparently is not that potent to wash off subnationalism or perceived dominance of one community over the other. Balochistan which is richest as a region is the poorest in Pakistan.

Maybe the grumbles of the stomach are more real than religion as such!

One also wonders if religion alone, as its sole raison d’être, can make a nation!

davidbfpo
04-11-2008, 06:05 PM
One also wonders if religion alone, as its sole raison d’être, can make a nation!

How about Holland? A country that freed itself from Spanish Catholic rule and can be described as a successful country (leaving aside current criticisms of a growing Muslim population). I am no expert on Dutch history, just a quick thought.

Religion is one factor in nation building, potent too.

davidbfpo

tequila
04-11-2008, 08:26 PM
Pakistan was founded on the basis of Faith, in that the Muslim League believed that the subcontinent's Muslims needed their own state to avoid sublimation into a much larger population of Hindus. However it was not founded as an Islamic religious state.

The closest modern-day example would be Israel, which was founded as a Jewish state but not as an explicitly religious state.

Ray
04-11-2008, 11:53 PM
Pakistan was founded on the basis of Faith, in that the Muslim League believed that the subcontinent's Muslims needed their own state to avoid sublimation into a much larger population of Hindus. However it was not founded as an Islamic religious state.

The closest modern-day example would be Israel, which was founded as a Jewish state but not as an explicitly religious state.

There indeed is the contention that is fielded that Pakistan was founded on 'ethnicity' ie Moslem and not religion i.e. Islam.

There is also the contention the Jew is both a religion as also an ethnic group. Therefore, Jew as a religion is separate as being Jew as an ethnic group!

Indeed, if Pakistan came into being so as to not be swamped by a majority, then what was the raison détre?

Not being swamped by the majority can mean nothing but religion!

India is a diverse country with diverse communities, languages, culture, tradition and yes, religion!

Therefore, what made Moslems of British India different, if it were not religion?

If Indian Moslem were worried about being swamped, what made them feel so? Culture, tradition, language or what? Everything in India was diverse, excepting RELIGION!!

Thus, one feels it is splitting hairs when debating Moslem ethnicity and Islam, the religion!! There is nothing actually which is Moslem ethnicity or so I feel, though I can be educated!

In so far as Pakistan and Islam is concerned, the role of the Jamaat-e-Islami and Majlis-i-Ahrar and their attempts to dissolve the fine difference of the claimed Moslem ethnicity with Islam, the religion, requires scrutiny.

Should one accept that Pakistan was founded not on Islam the religion but on the "Moslem ethnicity", then it raises the question as to what commonality had the pre Partition Indian Moslems amongst each other to be taken to be an ethnic group?

Pre Partition India was diverse in language, dialect, culture, and traditions. In fact, the diversity and the different mindset was one of the reasons why the British could rule the country with a mere handful and that is the reason why even the so called First War of Independence of 1857 (the Sepoy Mutiny as per British history) was an utter failure inspite of the overwhelming numbers of Indians. Hindus and Moslems! The Sikhs did not participate.

That the Moslem identity was a contrived ethnicity is proved beyond doubt by the Language Movement in East Pakistan that started practically immediately on the birth of Pakistan when it imposed Urdu on the Bengalis!

The aspect that the Moslem ethnicity is a contrived rationale has been proved when Bangladesh came into being. It should not have happened if blood (ethnicity) was thicker than water!

Likewise, Balochistan, FATA and the problems of the Northern Areas too should not have happened if there was anything called the Moslem ethnicity!

Events in Pakistan's history leads me to believe that Moslem 'ethnicity' is but a contrived respectability being assigned to a religion's motivated existence. More of a sop since it is important to the Islamic mind than being a reality!

That is my belief and I am sure there will be those who will not agree.

Jedburgh
07-15-2008, 02:19 PM
ICG, 14 Jul 08: Reforming Pakistan's Police (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=3516&tid=5570&type=pdf&l=1)

After decades of misuse and neglect, Pakistan’s police force is incapable of combating crime, upholding the law or protecting citizens and the state against militant violence. With an elected government taking over power after more than eight years of military rule, the importance of reforming this dysfunctional force has assumed new importance. Elected representatives will be held accountable if citizens continue to see the police, the public face of government, as brutal and corrupt. The democratic transition could also falter if deteriorating security gives the military a new opportunity to intervene, using, as it has in the past, the pretext of national security to justify derailing the democratic process on the grounds of good governance. Major reforms and reallocation of resources are required to create an effective and accountable police service.....
The 34-page report also provides a decent, if very brief, pre-Musharraf background on the Pakistani police, beginning with the Colonial era and running up from independence in '47.

Jedburgh
09-22-2008, 03:09 PM
The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 22 Sep 08: A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province: Part One – North and South Waziristan (http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2374425)

Militants operating in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP (http://nwfp.gov.pk/Government.php?DistId=1&DeptId=1&LangId=1)) include both Taliban and non-Taliban forces. However, the Taliban militants are much larger in number and have a lot more influence in the region. The Pakistani Taliban have close links with the Afghan Taliban and operate on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Durand Line (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5791) after the British diplomat who demarcated the boundary in 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand. The non-Taliban militants, on the other hand, are often pro-government and enjoy cordial ties with the Pakistan authorities and security forces......

Jedburgh
09-24-2008, 07:45 PM
A pair of briefs from the Pakistan Security Research Unit, 22 Sep 08:

Future Prospects for FATA (http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/download/attachments/748/Brief+41.pdf)

The future of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal areas (FATA) has become the focus of intense anxiety and debate both within the country and in the wider international community. The problems, posed by the lawlessness of this strategic region for the ‘War on Terror’, hardly need stating, but there is little consensus regarding the way forward. Allegations of cross-border infiltration by a resurgent Taliban based in FATA have soured relations between Pakistan and the government of Hamid Karzai in neighbouring Afghanistan. Growing US and British casualties in Southern Afghanistan have raised concerns about Pakistan’s military effectiveness and commitment and have led to public debate about the necessity for US unilateral action within Pakistan’s tribal territory. There have also been claims that people in the intelligence services sympathised with the militants.....
Sectarian Violence in Pakistan's Kurram Agency (http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/download/attachments/748/Brief+40.pdf)

Since 2004, there has been intense violence in the FATA. What started in South Waziristan,slowly spread to North Waziristan in 2005 and then later to Bajaur and Mohamand Agency during 2006 and 2007. For the last two years, this violence has spread to the settled districts of the NWFP including Bannu, DI Khan, Peshawar and Swat. Led by the Taliban and its local supporters in the FATA and NWFP, this violence is posing a serious threat to the process of governance, challenging the writ of the State. Referred to by media as Talibanization, these developments have been the subject of intense academic, media and policy interest.

Unfortunately, this excessive focus on the Talibanization phenomenon, has not given adequate space to focus on the ongoing sectarian violence in Kurram Agency. Since 2007, sectarian killings have increased in the agency and have taken many lives. During the last two months (July-August 2008) alone, there have been around 300 casualties.

This briefing examines what is happening in Kurram Agency, and explores three questions: Why is there sectarian violence in this agency? Why has it escalated recently? And are there any connections between this violence and the violence that is happening in the neighbouring Agencies of the FATA?

sullygoarmy
09-24-2008, 08:30 PM
A good article on Pakistan in the Economist as well:

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12267391

Jedburgh
09-30-2008, 06:42 PM
PSRU, 29 Sep 08: Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: An Agency by Agency Assessment (http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/download/attachments/748/Brief+42.pdf)

There are seven tribal agencies (Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan) and six Frontier Regions (Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, D I Khan and Tank). They share a similar history and structure of ‘governance’ and -in varying degrees- all the agencies are suffering from the fallout from the US led War on Terror. However, they are not homogenous, and there are multiple actors in, and differing dynamics to, the conflicts in the tribal borderlands. The purpose of this briefing is to outline the differences between the agencies in terms of the nature of violence, the humanitarian situation and the prospects for improving the situation within the region, using both quantitative and qualitative methods.

There are clear limitations to such a research process, and accurate quantifiable assessment of the human security situation in the FATA is difficult. The region remains subject to a media blackout, and in cases where journalists are active, they are likely to be cautious and, understandably, exercise a degree of self-censorship with what they publish. In this context, the assessment below can only ever be illustrative rather than exhaustive, and it remains an assessment which probably represents a minimum baseline in terms of the extent of human suffering in the region, based on the collation of media reports. Notwithstanding a significant margin for error, the differences appear important, and, quantitatively, it seems that the agencies have not equally shared the insecurity in the region, suggesting some agencies may be more resilient than others to the Talibanization, whereas other may have simply submitted to the militant presence.
Complete 21-page brief at the link.

Jedburgh
11-27-2008, 02:56 PM
PSRU, 20 Oct 08: Toward a Containment Strategy in the FATA (http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/download/attachments/748/Brief43.pdf)

.....the least-worst option at present, is through a containment strategy for the FATA. Such a strategy would seek to insulate the FATA from the dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, would seek to de-escalate the violence within the FATA, and would refocus the objectives of the US and Pakistan militaries. If such a strategy is to be effective it must be co-ordinated, it must operate at multiple levels, and it must be sustained because it will not be immediately effective. Recognising that not all the players in this strategy will be willing partners it is necessary also that recalibrated pressure forms part of the strategy.....

ODB
12-30-2008, 02:22 PM
From the AP:


The Taliban activity in northwest Pakistan also comes as the country shifts forces east to the Indian border because of tensions over last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, potentially giving insurgents more space to maneuver along the Afghan frontier.

Militants began preying on Swat's lush mountain ranges about two years ago, and it is now too dangerous for foreign and Pakistani journalists to visit. Interviews with residents, lawmakers and officials who have fled the region paint a dire picture.

A suicide blast killed 40 people Sunday at a polling station in Buner, an area bordering Swat that had been relatively peaceful. The attack underscored fears that even so-called "settled" regions presumptively under government control are increasingly unsafe.

The 3,500-square-mile Swat Valley lies less than 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gbu9UQHKP-yljFQLEgb-wx67LLJgD95COON80

Rob Thornton
12-30-2008, 04:51 PM
Bad news indeed. It makes you wonder if someone in the planning loop of the Mumbai attacks might have considered the potential of increasing Pakistani/Indian tensions and the resulting redistribution of Pakistani forces.

Whether deliberate, or lucky on the part of the enemy - the sooner that tension is eased some the better for us, the Afghanistan government, the Pakistanis, and the Indians.

From another perspective, it seems to show the enemy does not have to coordinate (at least in the way we think of it) its actions to have an effect or to take advantage of new conditions as a result of that effect.

Best, Rob

ODB
12-31-2008, 12:07 AM
Sorry was on my way out the door this morning when I came across that little nugget of news. I had a few immediate thoughts: The first was the same Rob mentioned; how much of the Mumbai attacks was geared towards getting this reaction out of Pakistan? Was it planned accordingly with the time of year, winter is a slow time in Afghanistan, therefore enabling them to broaden their power base in Pakistan? Or was it simply coincidence? Secondly is now with a larger land base how much can the Taliban recruit, train, equip? Are they again moving to a larger scale military force to be reckoned with inside Pakistan to eventually cross over in strength into Afghanistan? The problems that arrise when an insurgency grows to military might. Thirdly how does this affect our policy on going into Pakistan? NATOs policies in Afghanistan? Pakistans ability to squash it when things with India calm back down? Just a few of the immediate thoughts and I'm sure there are a miliion others out there. Talk about on effect based operations, maybe we should take note if this was planned!

davidbfpo
01-10-2009, 10:30 PM
Caught sight of this new report, written by a Pakistani analyst and will need a longer read, even a hard copy: http://mtblog.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/Nawaz_FATA_book_low-res.pdf

This seems the best place to add it.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
01-28-2009, 02:12 AM
There is growing anti Taliban and al Qaida sentiment evident over recent months and days on the above blog/website. These writers, some high school and college studens in UK, are helping plan a major demonstration against slaughers going on in Northern Pakistan currently, particularly inside Swat.

Thought this snippet might be of interest to you all.
George Singleton


http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=59199#post59199
Posted by: aimal khan
On: Today 03:22 PM

I am not against Islam as a religion( faith+worship+morality) and spiritual institution but I am totally against the extremist Islam in any shape like Salafis, Ahle hadith, Wahabis, Taliban, Panjpeeris, Ishate tawheed wa Sunna , and some extremist Deobandis. They are one of the most important causes of terrorism in today´s world. Politics of USA are power politics and they desrve it. Muslims used to do the same when they were in power rather worse than USA today as USA is not directly conquering the lands inspite of the necessary resources they have.Muslims started from MAKKAH and MADINA and conquered almost the whole known world to them at that time. Although that time they were not terrorists. they were fighting against their enemies according to all the established rules of war. Todays extremist muslims dont have power and try to fight against their enemies by the tool of terrorism whis is absurd, cruel, unjust and stupid.


All the best,
Global Hujra: A Pakhtun Cyber Land

George L. Singleton
02-01-2009, 01:55 AM
http://asinstitute.org/home.php?page=1

Issue #98 came out by direct e-mail today, 31 Jan 09.

Give it a few days and #98 will be on this website, too, which now only has the Jan. 09 issue.

Site based in Lahore, Pakistan with focus among other things on both Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also on Africa and other areas.

Again, may be of "broadening" interest as we will be dealing more heavily with, perhaps in Pakistan from now on.

George L. Singleton
02-01-2009, 03:07 PM
My goof. The Institute referenced in previous posting by me is at the University of Punjab which is in Lahore, Pakistan. Apologies for my mistake.

davidbfpo
02-04-2009, 09:30 PM
On the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7868875.stm

Not exactly good news and note the headline, odd.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
02-05-2009, 02:09 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5081

This blog post from Hujra Online (sub part of Khyberwatch.com) may be of interest as Waziristan in part is where extra Taliban fighters are now coming from into and out of Afghanistan.

See in particular post #54, dated 1-17-09, from/by Khan Baba.

Your feedback where possible would be of interest.

Ron Humphrey
02-05-2009, 04:35 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5081

This blog post from Hujra Online (sub part of Khyberwatch.com) may be of interest as Waziristan in part is where extra Taliban fighters are now coming from into and out of Afghanistan.

See in particular post #54, dated 1-17-09, from/by Khan Baba.

Your feedback where possible would be of interest.

Most seems to support what one might expect to see and be consistent with some of the actions they took when first coming to power in Afghanistan. That said exactly what portion do you think is of greatest import considering your background in the region?

The fact that one particular subset which might have been thought of as a possible partner in Pak efforts to organize resistance (if I remember my readings correctly) is hard pressed to do so due to the circumstances under which power shifted, or the fact that seems like too many different factions exist for any one to be large enough to compete with the larger threat?

Or something else altogether?

George L. Singleton
02-05-2009, 01:31 PM
Ron:

Your analysis is pretty much on target.

The pieces to this Pukhtun puzzle are as you noted are fragmented all over the place.

My simplistic analysis in discussing and watching this deterioration over there since 9/11:

1. Under former President Musharraf they did hit and run "fixes" in the troubled areas, FATA, Swat, Waziristan, Balochistan. Pak Army goes in, has a fire fight, razes homes of terrorists, then pulls back out.

2. Both under Musharraf and now under new elected President, husband of late Benazir Bhutto, jirgas and negotiations are forever on again, off again, to absolutely no lasting avail whatsoever.

3. Core struggle is over religion, pure and simple.

4. Pukhtun "belt" population as a whole have been among the poorest people in all of Pakistan, who factually or not in all alleged cases, have axes to grind with the central and regional governments (same cabal when it comes to governance). The "government" to them is mainly Punjabis who are also the majority of the successful business class throughout Pakistan, and nationwide the majority ethnic grouping in the total population.

5. In the Pak military there are a substantial number of Pukhtuns who find jobs there.

6. All Taliban being Pukhtuns, it is alleged, likely true, by commentators on their site (Hujra Online) that you now have "cousins fighting cousins", Pukhtuns in military of Paksitan up against Taliban Pukhtuns who in many instances are either blood kin or who grew up together as children, what we in the South here refer to as "near kin."

7. Attempts to use Frontier Corp troops instead of regular Pakistan Army troops to me, just my view, is a big part of the problem...as FC troops "are largely, not just some of them" Pukhtuns, and several times now in past two or so years I have felt the FC troops have both "changed sides" when it suited them to not kill each other (Pukhtuns) and to a lesser extent have mutinied and changed sides for good!

8. In Swat, where I have contacts both over there and back here in the States who go back and forth for family events, weddings and such, home visits, the Pak military only recently started to put troops into Swat for a more or less "longer" period of stay/posting, then turned around and made these troop placements into cantonments, ie, self contained "forts" and the troops then don't effectively go out, mix with the locals, and provide the security back up to the local police and to the people, who are openly still being attacked...in their own homes in a growing number of cases...especially those who speak out against terrorism and the Taliban are being attacked, as in murdered, in their own homes in front of other family members who "get the message" and cease resisting, in some cases, join the Taliban.

IDEAS FOR SOLUTION: Pakistan has to stop playing games to look for excuses to remove just placed major numbers of soldiers in these hot areas that in almost all cases now are in open revolt, where sectarian, ie, Pukhtun tribalism is mixed with terrorism, ie, Taliban, as anyone/everyone who hates the central and central appointed or allied/elected provincial goverment will and are now "reinforcing" each other against what I view as common sense "law and order" or the writ of law. At present, Pak Army has moved large elements to border with India using Mumbai terrorist attacks fiasco as an excuse to protect against a trumped up by the Pakistani ISI [excuse or allegation] of an imminent Indian military invasion. This whole damn "hate India" theme has been used since 1947 to keep Pakistanis from long term focusing on and getting lasting political fixes to internal domestic, economic, educational, etc, etc., problems.

The Taliban and al Qaida defacto have allies in the Pakistani Government, Army, and the ISI, as seen by most Pukhtun writers on Hujra Online, and I am starting to agree with them, as moving troops away from fighting terrorists to the stupid Indian border just lets the damned terrorists have the run of the ground in Swat, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, and Balochistan ALL OVER AGAIN!

A MIDDLE GROUND of sane Pukhtuns do not totally reject the national/nationally backed provincial governments, and these are mainly YOUNGER Pukhtuns who have educations to even be on a website such as Hujra Online.

The hope, or failure of Northern Pakistan is largely with the high school and university age young men and women who are Pukhtuns. These in the main are who write on this site and who I communicate with as best I can.

MULTILINGUAL, not stupid, folks, these Pukhtuns. A typical educated or being educated today Pukhtun, is eduated in Urdu (the official language of the Pak Government is Urdu. Urdu is the identifying language of Punjabis, anethma to older Pukhtuns and to a growing number of younger Pukhtuns).

They then "chose" to save their culture via their language, which they also study and become fluent in, Pashtu.

To be effective in both the region and on a world level, focused on Pukhtuns overseas in Europe, Canada, and the US, they learn and are pretty good with English.

FINAL HISTORIC OBSERVATION: Some, but not all young Pukhtuns and very many older Pukhtuns in both Paksitan and Afghanistan (which is majority Pukhtun) go on and on about the DURAND LINE from early 1900s which is the official border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Durand Line comes up you are being told defacto that Pukhtuns want a united, to them reuinted, tribal nation made up of most of today's Afghanistan and large parts of Northern Pakistan. They exhibit no common sense about infrastructure, or lack there of, jobs, unresolvable poverty, lack of adequate schools...Taliban style Pukthuns of course are busy burning, blowing up, and killing teachers of girls schools all the time.

FAILING US efforts to dump billions of dollars worth of AID and development into Northern Pakistan. It is unsafe to go anywhere to build or do almost anything in N. Pakistan now without massive military protection, protection which the Pakistan military is NOT providing for foreigners, US, French, German, Chinese, you name one, to go out into the now boiling with terrorism and terrorists backward areas. Even loyal to central and provincial Pak government officials are as often as not murdered and unable to function outside of equivalent of well protected areas and cities..and even big cities ; the largest in North Pakistan is Peshawar, is infested with terrorists, bombings, murders, and fire fights of Taliban in groups with local police, Frontier Corp troops, regular Pak Army troops.

It is my crackpot theory that the worldwide recession, which overseas is already at depression proportions, is creating more suicide bombers and more and more of the poor over there have nothing to live for and religious terrorists are using their economic despair to "offer them Heaven on a bomb vest."

AFGHANISTAN as regards Pukhtun separatism is actually less of a problem than Pakistan as not only are the majority of Afghans Pukhtuns ethnically/tribally to begin with, but President Karzai himself is a Pukhtun.

Enough now from me, what say others of you or do you have questions, criticism, or want to narrow some of these shotgun blast statements from me? *Please overlook my many typos. Tks.

jmm99
02-05-2009, 07:56 PM
1. Are the Pashtuns a monolith (as in the very basic map attached), or are they divided into distinct sub-groups geographically ?

2. If sub-groups, which (if any) are cross-border living in both Pstan and Astan ?

3. If sub-groups, which are Taliban-influenced ?

4. Is the Taliban a monolith, or does it have its own factions ("hard" to "soft" or some such qualitative measure).

The overall question is whether there are Pashtun sub-groups which the US could work with directly.

George L. Singleton
02-06-2009, 03:41 AM
http://www.semp.us/images/Biot584PhotoG.bmp

This is a more detailed map of the overlapping mixes of ethnic groups in Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Pukthuns clearly in the majority on both sides of this map.

Enlarge the map to see it better, maybe 11 different tribes, including Pukthuns, plus "others" catch all category.

Am doing more research to see if I can break down Pukhtuns into subtribes as you suggested.

http://pukhtunwomen.org/node/161

This PukhtunWomen website article uses 2007 US Army Manual info which does a very good job of breaking down into subtribes, etc. the Pukthuns in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_Tribes

I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.

jmm99
02-06-2009, 09:31 PM
from GLS
I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.

and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.

The general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.

For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_tribal_structure) from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.

The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.

The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.

Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge. :eek:

George L. Singleton
02-07-2009, 11:14 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=59769#post59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

SWJED
02-07-2009, 11:43 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=59769#post59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

George, God love ya, please -and in concise and relevant terms - provide the "why" Council members should blindly follow the links you provide, here and on other threads. Council members deserve at least that much - right? - Dave

Schmedlap
02-08-2009, 02:19 AM
I second, with a recommendation.

George seems to have an interest in, special knowledge of, and generally to be well read on to, this locale and, particularly, the open source goings-on. Perhaps an ongoing "George's take on the Pakistani region" thread would be a good place to consolidate these occasional snippets. George's insights are interesting and I suspect that he has more knowledge of the region than many of us and probably has a different perspective. It would be a shame for his observations to go unread simply due to how they are presented.

George L. Singleton
02-08-2009, 03:31 AM
SWJED:

I have introed these websites/blogs in some detail in recent days/weeks, and have received several in the open as well as indiviudal e-mails exploring them further.

As the war on terrorism, my view, has since 9/11 been centered in the Pukhtun belt, ie, both Northern Pakistan and most all of Afghanistan, I thought this as well as the past history of Muslim press articles I have posted on SWJ from both the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and Karach DAWN helped explain this.

Of course, if you have another view and different interests, that is good, but some on here, beside me, are also interested in knowing about the core hot fighting areas which impact our future success, or failure, in relation to our alliance with Pakistan and the new government of Afghanistan, both of which are spinning like a top in relation to Pukhtun terrorist actions these articles address.

Hope this explanation helps, and again, others have shown both on line and individual e-mail interest in same.

I have tried to post these blog and related entries in areas of general as well as Afghanistan interest, and am always subject to having these posts moved to correct topical section, which does happen, which is great by me.

Yes, I, too, am a red headed Irishman myself.

Cheers.

davidbfpo
02-15-2009, 09:25 PM
On the BBC earlier: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7891410.stm

From this faraway observation point this looks like the "stop and go" policy stance seen so often under President Musharraf and Pakistani Army rule. Except this time the agreement is between the Taliban and the NWFP provincial government.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
02-15-2009, 10:43 PM
Hell, the AP is reading and plagerizing my quotes the bunch of cowards, most of whom write from over here about over there to begin with. They use native stringers in country who themsleves have often moved to Australian and write from there after "telephone" chats with the old boys back in the NWFP.

Here is a clip of Peshawar circa 1968 for those interested in same. I was in and out of Peshawar from 1963-1965, so this later date, 1968 clip is from a friend's cousin who served at my U-2 Base in Badabar after I had rotated stateside.

The US lost the lease (Operation Sandbag) for our intel and U-2 base at Peshawar/Badabar as of the start of 1969, when Pakistan swung into the Communist China economic and military alliance column.

http://www.vbs.tv/full_screen.php?s=DGFE2305DC&sc=1363196

http://www.pakdef.info/forum/archive/index.php/t-3560.html

http://www.coldwar.org/text_files/ColdwartimesNov2008.pdf

http://www.6937th.50megs.com/

Enough already, right?

davidbfpo
02-16-2009, 10:12 AM
I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).

davidbfpo

Ron Humphrey
02-16-2009, 03:30 PM
I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).

davidbfpo

Only available in the UK:(

George L. Singleton
02-16-2009, 09:39 PM
US special envoy says Swat a real threat for all of us


NEW DELHI (Reuters): An Islamist militancy in Pakistan's Swat region is a common threat to the United States, India and Pakistan, a special US envoy said on Monday, after meeting with India's foreign minister and top security officials. Seeking a greater role for India in stabilizing the region, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, said he discussed details of his visit last week to the two countries and shared his concerns about security. "For the first time in 60 years since independence your country and Pakistan, the US, all face an enemy that poses a direct threat to our leadership, our capitals and our people," Holbrooke told reporters in New Delhi.

As found now at: http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=ts&nid=4073

The above lead front page story in the Peshawar Monday, Feb. 16, 2009 FRONTIER POST is worth the 30 seconds or less to read it. I have not been exaggerating how bad the Swat surrender by Pakistan is...it will be used now as a safe have (not on a common border with Afghanistan) to martial, train, and send terrorists into both Afghanistan and Kashmir/India side.

Grim continuing story of pro-Taliban flag ranks who run the Pak military and I repeat are undermining the President of Pakistan in the process, which means killing democracy and paving the way yet again for another military coup before the end of 2009 in Pakistan.

davidbfpo
02-16-2009, 10:24 PM
Not sure why the link did not work outside the UK. This link goes to the Panorama website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/default.stm and then archived programmes for the item is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

If that fails (again) I can ask the BBC why somehow.

davidbfpo

Ron Humphrey
02-16-2009, 10:38 PM
Not sure why the link did not work outside the UK. This link goes to the Panorama website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/default.stm and then archived programmes for the item is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

If that fails (again) I can ask the BBC why somehow.

davidbfpo

Just the Britain's Terror heartland vid says UK only:(

George L. Singleton
02-17-2009, 08:44 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=60492#post60492post60492

Some of SWJ readers and commentators might be interested in particiular in message #1 found in the above blog site.

They are guesstimating that the Pakistani ISI backed Taliban will set up shop to attempt what I preceive to be another SWAT style coup from the named three locations.

They are apparently moving a few steps at a time, which means we should be able to stop them IF the President of Pakistan can figure out how to get the Chief of the Pakistani Army to control the ISI and truely fight the terrorists. Otherwise, it is a frustrating war on terrorism when you ally is simultaneously among your enemies.

davidbfpo
02-17-2009, 12:41 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th

Once in a while even the NEW YORK TIMES gets it's facts straught.

The future of Swat the NYT suggests is a consolidated base for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

I agree with the TIMES in this article where they basically assess "excuses" being made by the Pak government as a pack of lies.

Moved here by davidbfpo and originally by George S.

Bob's World
02-17-2009, 12:48 PM
This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.

Piranha
02-17-2009, 02:37 PM
Reading:


Pakistan Makes a Taliban Truce, Creating a Haven

The government announced Monday that it would accept a system of Islamic law in the Swat valley and agreed to a truce, effectively conceding the area as a Taliban sanctuary and suspending a faltering effort by the army to crush the insurgents.
The concessions to the militants, who now control about 70 percent of the region just 100 miles from the capital, were criticized by Pakistani analysts as a capitulation by a government desperate to stop Taliban abuses and a military embarrassed at losing ground after more than a year of intermittent fighting. About 3,000 Taliban militants have kept 12,000 government troops at bay and terrorized the local population with floggings and the burning of schools.
The accord came less than a week before the first official visit to Washington of the Pakistani army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to meet Obama administration officials and discuss how Pakistan could improve its tactics against what the American military is now calling an industrial-strength insurgency there of Al Qaeda and the Taliban militants.


Jane Perlez, New York Times


I really get nightmares about what this will mean, let's say to the women in this area.
Perhaps I'm taking this too personally, and should all this 'be looked upon in another way'. I really do want to look at this kind of news in a more reasonable way, so here's an open invitation to share your responses ...

George L. Singleton
02-17-2009, 03:36 PM
Greetings and will attempt to offer one old trooper's views to answer some of your open ended question(s):

1. Recent successful drone attacks in other Northern Pakistan provinces and areas have been working and the Taliban wanted a safe have that does not have a common border with Afghanistan. SWAT meets their needs now and they have just managed to combine murder, threat of murder, suicide bombings, and having too many friends in high places in the Pakistani ISI (read that as Intelligence Service) and the upper ranks of the Pakistan Army..who have long been pro-Taliban and pro-al Qaida.

2. Your fears are well founded as this largely pits the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army against both the new President and new Prime Minister of Pakistan.

3. Now both the Taliban and al Qaida, for the moment at least, feel they are in a safer site, area is about the size of the US State of Delaware, have driven killed and/or driven out about 1/3 of the native Pukhtuns...the invading Taliban are of other subtribes and not native to Swat, and are deeply feared and resented by the differing Pukhtun subtrives inside and native to SWAT.

4. This in league with the terrorists action by the Pak government and Army, largely the Army is pulling these strings of surrender, invites more such capitulations and surrenders to the core of all this religious terrorism, Sharia Law, in other Northern parts of Pakistan.

5. Especially upsetting to me, since I served in the Peshawar and Karachi areas many years ago in our military, is that the capital of all of Pakistan, Islamabad, is not that many miles S-SW of SWAT and is full of radical madrassas itself, in fact, the Red Madrassah had a week long fire fight between the Pak Army and the Taliban teachers and students there in Islamabad about a year ago...which then President Musharraf put his career as President on the line to try to root them out...via the weeklong gunfight.

Your fears are well founded.

ASIDE: My wife and I met some very fine Dutch Special Forces while everyone was touring the Amiercan Cemetery at Normandy, France, summer, 2006. These Dutch were your special forces headed from that military leave weekend straight into Afghanistan. I and we over here appreciate our alliance and long term friendship with the government and all the people of Holland. Thank you to you and to all your countrymen. Colonel George L. Singleton, USAF, Ret.

J Wolfsberger
02-17-2009, 03:52 PM
Perhaps because I listen to Radio Netherlands over WRN, I've long been aware of the heroic efforts of the Dutch in Afghanistan. I'm deeply embarrassed at the disparagement of their efforts (as well as the efforts of Canada and Australia) in certain segments of US society. Very few people in the US are aware that, proportionate to the population, the Dutch have suffered as significant a number of casualties as we have.

Bob's World
02-17-2009, 03:58 PM
We're getting several threads all going on this same topic, so I will just repost here an alternative viewpoint:

This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.
__________________

George L. Singleton
02-17-2009, 03:59 PM
and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.

The general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.

For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_tribal_structure) from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.

The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.

The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.

Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge. :eek:

JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge. This said from this old Irishman to you as another younger Irishman.

Glad you like the sites I found of various levels of Pukhtun tribes, subtribes, etc. in this ongoing posting. Reading it up to a point once found gave me a huge headache and general dizzy feeling.

George

jmm99
02-17-2009, 05:17 PM
from GLS
JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge.

totally beyond my kin, my ken and my kith - but thanks for the thought. :D

Having said that, I hope there is someone in our command structure who is able to understand this item from post # 7 of the blog you cite above ...


Originally Posted by Batoor
Penjperies have very strong association with ISI.

Yes! Major Muhammad Aamir who is the son of Maulana Tahir,the founder of this sect is a well known retired Army officer & he was the head during mid-night Jakal operation ... now his elder brother Maulana Tayyeb is the head of this sect.

and to apply whatever measures are required to meet the challenge of the Penjperies - whoever they are. :o

George L. Singleton
02-17-2009, 06:05 PM
When now retired four star General Fred Franks was a Brigadier they "created" a JCS-9 slot for him, which was a sort of catch all for goofy things like this tribal lineage stuff, among lesser on paper duties as best I can recall, that was back in 1990.

For details see: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/abt_j9.htm

George L. Singleton
02-17-2009, 06:16 PM
Thanks for your input Bob, which I read earlier vs. a posting of mine which DAVIDBFOP "kidnapped" in the wee hours our time, mid-moring London time, today.

My posting, which is fine, is now under David's banner but he gives me credit in the last line of my last paragraph.

David, I hope you appreciate my wry Irish sense of humor. My other ancient clans are English and Welch, so I am only half Irish, but that is enough to make me dangerous you know!

Bob, you may want to review my around 50 published letters in the Karachi DAWN through end of 2008 to see in part where I am coming from regarding Pakistan.

We do disagree as this surrender of SWAT at this time is based on my tracking of this mess ever since 9/11 a huge turning point for the worse. My opinion, but the indiginous folks over there telling me this right and left without me asking what they think. It is in letters daily in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST, which I treat as more relevant to NWFP topics vs. the DAWN, which is more of a Punjabi based English press, FP being Pukhtun family owned and managed. Etc.

Grim news to me and to those over there.

I have numerous e-mails dating back the past 18 months from those inside SWAT begging for US/UN ground forces intervention, which of course I don't favor but where else logically could these oppressed Pukhtuns think to turn, as their doubts of the Pak Army again and again are correct! The Pakistani top Army flag ranks sell out the locals/Pukhtuns over and over.

Does anyone remember the last throws of Musharraf's Presidencey? Treaty or treaties of peace with the Taliban which the Taliban broke within two weeks.

Does anyone remember early actions of the new President and Prime Minister of Pakistan? Treaties again in the frontier areas of Pakistan on the Afghan border which the Taliban again broke within weeks.

To those over there, their views to me, which repeat in summary here, these so called jiirgas and treaties are gifts of time to resupply, reform, and attack across the border into Afghanistan and to continue internal within N. Pakistan attacks against native Pukhtuns there.

This is not what I want to say, it is what thePukhtun and other tribes which are not Puktuns but minority locals are saying to me, over and over, in pretty gorry stories.

George L. Singleton
02-19-2009, 11:28 AM
Slain Pak TV reporter had 32 bullet wounds


Thursday, 19 February , 2009, 12:19




Islamabad: Thirty two bullets were pumped into TV reporter Musa Khan Khel in Pakistan's Swat Valley two days after Islamabad allowed the Taliban to impose Shariat (Islamic law) in the area, said Geo News executive editor Hamid Mir, adding a lot of radicals were unhappy with his coverage but "truth has to be reported".

Complete story ate below Internet site of murder of Pakistani local news reporter at site of so-called "Peace March" in Swat yesterday. Some way the Taliban observe "peace" there.

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/

Piranha
02-19-2009, 03:08 PM
Thanks for the well-informed supportive messages, as well as for the compliments to our Special Forces men. Perhaps I shouldn't be having nightmares, being angry is the better response ... 'shoulder-to-shoulder' ...

George L. Singleton
02-19-2009, 06:34 PM
You are most welcome for acknowledging our replies to you.

Today you might be interested to know that:

1. The Presdident of Pakistan has yet to sign the treaty with the Taliban in Swat, and

2. likewise, the leadership of the Taliban also have not signed, either.

Pak President says (if this is dependable, who knows?) he will not sign until or unless all hostilites in Swat cease on the part of the Taliban. This, if a true statement by the Pak President, then means a signed treaty of peace is not, repeat not, likely with the Taliban, as these terrorist Pukhtuns are violent by daily nature and cannot control each other, ever. Discipline is not their "strong suit."

Have a good weekend.

George L. Singleton, Colonel, USAF, Ret.
Formerly of US Air Base at Badaber, nearby Peshawar,
Pakistan, and old US Embassy then in Karachi, Paksitan.

Piranha
02-20-2009, 11:48 AM
US ‘troubled and confused’ about sharia deal: Holbrooke

Anwar Iqbal

Friday, 20 Feb, 2009 | 12:22 AM PST |

WASHINGTON: The United States was not sure if the Pakistani military and ISI backed President Asif Ali Zardari’s commitment to eradicate terrorist sanctuaries from the NWFP, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan said on Thursday.

Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, in his first media interview since he returned from a fact-finding mission to South Asia earlier this week, said this issue ‘will be pursued at very high levels’ in US-Pakistan talks scheduled in Washington next week.

Ambassador Holbrooke also linked this week’s peace agreement in Swat to the military’s reluctance to support President Zardari’s anti-terrorism policies and said the US was ‘troubled and confused’ about this deal.

Unlike her special envoy, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared more willing to give Pakistan a chance to explain how and why it concluded a deal with the militants in Swat.....

http://dawn.net/wps/wcm/connect/Dawn%20Content%20Library/dawn/news/pakistan/us-troubled-and-confused-about-sharia-deal-holbrooke--bi


Copyright © 2009 - Dawn Media Group

davidbfpo
02-21-2009, 09:45 PM
A first-hand report by The (London) Times to the valley: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5780438.ece

Grim reading.

davidbfpo

Piranha
02-21-2009, 10:20 PM
Sigh.

Thanks for sharing this Davidbfpo, grim reading indeed.

George L. Singleton
02-21-2009, 11:59 PM
A first-hand report by The (London) Times to the valley: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5780438.ece

Grim reading.

davidbfpo

David et al:

This article epitomizes in part the desperate interpersonal e-mails I have been getting for over two years out of Swat now. The anti-Taliban/anti-al Qaida good people get my e-mail address from often printed letters to the editor from and by me in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and I am of course careful/they ask me to be so, not to disclose their e-mail addresses as they say for sure it would lead to their murder by the Taliban/al Qaida.

Driving wedges among and between the Taliban and al Qaida, who are all Sunnis, should not be so hard, as the Taliban who write and have "their" letters published in the FRONTIER POST or who allow the FP to do telephone interviews with them...and those Taliban who write, in English and in Pushto, on Global Hujra Online...in general do not, repeat don't like "Arabs" who many Pukhtuns, both Taliban and non-Taliban alike, view as much as "invaders" as we are allegedly so viewed.

Up until now al Qaida has relied on and used the fact of in common Muslim Sunni belief and customs to seek and claim shelter and safe harbor. This is a topic that needs hard work to crack that "fellow Muslim" hospiality nut. It won't be easy as he damned Taliban tolerated al Qaida to the point to being tossed out of power by force by us!

George L. Singleton
02-22-2009, 12:29 AM
There is more than a little intereting reading here...Darmand is an Afghan Pukhtun, but most of the other comments come from Pakistani Pukhtuns inside Swat, in the Peshwar area, and from Pukhtuns living in Europe.

SIDE NOTE BY GEORGE: Many of the Pukhtuns in Afdghanistan and in Pakistan are of the same families and tribes, as most of you already know.

There are some interestisng topical cross links, too.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=60874#post60874post60874

On balance, IF one used these postings you have to conclude that the majority of Pukhtuns from and in Swat hate the Taliban and are desperate as in they don't know what to do?

FYI.

Piranha
02-22-2009, 01:36 AM
Thank you once again Mr. Singleton.

To you and everyone reading along,

About 15 years ago I was in contact with a Sufi (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufism) group in my own country, which was and is very much involved in interfaith dialogue. Whenever I wanted to share in their dhikr (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhikr)-meetings, I could count on the hospitality of one of their members afterwards.

One time their leader told me something that imho is worth sharing with you all: "Bad people have no problems finding each other doing bad things, that's a real problem, but perhaps an even bigger problem is that we good people are sometimes so critical of one another that it prevents us from doing that many good things that this might be a counter-weight."

We need every ally we can get.

davidbfpo
02-22-2009, 12:42 PM
Another report on the valley, citing an expatriate resident who runs a local radio station: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/4742533/The-Cambridge-chaplain-fighting-fanaticism-by-radio-in-Pakistans-Swat-valley.html

Adds in other commentary.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
02-27-2009, 01:44 PM
It is amazing how different folks have different views on the subject of Swat.

My years (2) serving in Pakistan, with my higher HQ being at Badabar (suburb of Peshawar) found today's Swat under a Raj-era and style prince/family line. They (hte Prince and his then ruling family) worked well with the Pakistani Army, Frontier Corp, and local police to have and enforce the writ of law, the civil code, not the "religious" extremist Sharia Law.

Then came the 1980s and the USSR invasion, which spilled over into Paksitan. But even then Swat was isolated from most of that to the extent that the Austrians in the mid-1990s invested millions to develop ski resorts and slopes upon which to build a tourism industry in Swat.

Then came today's Taliban and al Qaida, looking for a haven (my view) away from the border areas...to start new terrorst training camps and impose their view of Sharia Law on the innocent population...which indigenous Swat folks are of different tribes than the invading Taliban...and who (natives to Swat population) had just voted in 2008 for a more secular local and national style of government by voting in locally an ANP provincial assembly and nationally having voted in the PPP and the new President Asif Ali Zardari.

To have and maintain the writ of civil law you have to have law and order. This historically was achieved by having permanent military garrisons who joined together with local police maintained, actively, every single day, not on again, off again, civil law and order and prevented "honor killings and beheadings."

See the Friday, Feb. 27 letter to editor of the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and then if interested, post what you think of the retired Pakistani Brigadier's views and opinions entitled:

Terms of surrender
Brig (R) Tariq Zubair Toor Lahore tariq.zubairtoor@yahoo.com

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=le&nid=1109

George L. Singleton
02-28-2009, 01:21 PM
The Pakistani Brigadier fails to note that formerly the Paksitan Army maintained large numbers of peacekeeping troops throughout Swat who backed up the local police before today's Taliban take over due to the Gov't of Pakistan "caving" defacto surrendering to the terrorists.

This failure to permanently garrison and help keep daily law and order is the crux of the problem. Some of the very troops formerly inside Swat were moved, under the excuse of troop needs elsewhere, to the border with India after the recent Bombay (Mumbai) hotel terrorist attacks by Taliban from inside Pakistan who went to Mumbai by boat from Paksitan, etc. This is absurd on it's face. Pakistani troops are needed where the were, inside Swat, not on some phoney front with India.

I often receive e-mails from grassroots Pakistani citizens still inside Swat as well as from former Swat residents who in general have fled to Peshawar for personal safety...Peshawar at the moment is still permanently garrisoned by the Pak Army which Pak troops currently still do help maintain civil law and order and peace daily throuout most of Peshawar...but even there in Peshawar the terrorsts can do suicide bombings and such, and there is frankly little militarily anyone can do to stop that sort of terrorist suicide destruction, murdering, and mayhem.

The Brigadier is "off his nut" in my opinion when he panders to public opinion as his/the Pak Army's excuse. Does he really think the average Swat citizne on the street can influence or stop Taliban organized maruding actions and murdering?

Those still inside Swat do not, repeat not, tell me they want "peace at any price" but rather they tell me they STILL want the Pak Army to get out and fight, one on one. The people inside Swat say the Pak Army has only been doing helicopter gunship attacks, artillery fire, and tank fire, and have not been putting footsolders on the ground, one on one, to stop the terrorists. I think we have to accept these statements from inside Swat as true and the statements from current and retired Pak Generals and field grade officers are flat lies to cover up the fact that the reputation of the Pak Army is going down the tubes!

I've noted before and note again here, now, that the Pak Army and Frontier Corp have also been plagued by Pukhtun mutinies within the ranks.

There was a news story worldwide yesterday, 2/27/09 of ethnic Bangladesh troops (army) mutinying, murdering over 120 officers, now being negotiated with to "return" to the Bangladesh army. To me, as least, as an old guard style trooper, this is totally unacceptable and the mutineers should be summarily general court martialed when caught and shot.


But the militants, due to the space and opportunities available to them, reorganized, regrouped and reasserted in the populated areas and used terror as a weapon and civilians as human shields. This posed problems for the military to separate militants from civilians. The military cannot use terror as a weapon, but terrorists do.

This is a partial quote from the Brigadier's letter to the editor of the Peshawar FRONTIER POST of Friday, Feb. 27, 2009.

Whenever I/anyone posts a link to the FP you have to remember that when the "next day" occurs date wise, you then click on the now out of date link, go to ARCHIEVES, find and click on the exact date of the referred to letter to editor, then click on the entire LETTERS menu to find the exact letter which when first posted came up directly.

Messy process but in the case of the FRONTIER POST that is how it works. In the case of DAWN, you never loose the exact letter as originally posted. FP for defensive/security reasons stopped the process exactly as DAWN still has, to hold down likehood of riots and attempts to blow up/burn out their newspaper building. THE FRONTIER POST was burned to the ground circa 1999 for daring to post a letter to the editor inside Pakistan from an Israeli Jewish letter writer.

The following line to the Friday, Feb. 27, 2009 letter works today 2/28/09, but will likely again be blank tomorrow, Sunday, March 1, so the use of the ARCHIVES tomorrow would be necessary to again bring it up to read or study it.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=le&nid=1109

George L. Singleton
02-28-2009, 10:44 PM
www.asinstitute.org/newsletter99

This comes out monthly to me from the Alternate Solutions Institute in Lahore, Paksitan. I think this think tank is on the campus of the University of Punjab.

May be of general readership interest.

Piranha
03-03-2009, 11:45 AM
I've nothing public to add to all this.

Thanks again anyway.

George L. Singleton
03-29-2009, 03:28 AM
The Saturday, March 28 Peshawar FRONTIER POST carried a lead story of a terrorist suicide bomber blowing himself and up to 300 innocent Pukhtun Muslim Pakistanis up in a two story mosque on the edge of Peshawar this weekend.

The idiot local Pakistani/Pukhtun police official had this stupid remark to make about the murderer, which really makes me furious:


"He said that foreign hand could not be ruled out in this tragic incident because a Muslim could not dare to kill the worshippers inside the mosque."

This is the sort to dishonest, lying, terrorist coddling I have seen over and over again from those Pukhtuns in government positions who will not condemn and damn those Pukhtuns who are Taliban terrorists. It clearly paints them a likely supporters of the terrorists themselves.

Damned shame all around.

George L. Singleton
03-30-2009, 06:17 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=64821#post64821

See posting #18 which is taken from a French news agency and posted on this Hujra Online site, and also see posting #8, which is the first one I saw earlier this morning on this website.

The Lahore National Policy Academy, which routinely has over 1,000 cadets enrolled at any one time of late, was attacked early this morning, Monday, March 30, per the Global Hujra Online comments contained in the above Internet reference. The number of Pak police cadets killed and wounded is not yet clear to me from these reports.

In part this posting says:


LAHORE: Security forces have secured one portion of Manawan Police Academy, Geo news reported on Monday.

According to Tv news correspondents who are inside premises of the Academy, commandos of elite force and army have captured the terrorists alive. After clearing the compound and arresting the terrorists, the commandos fired in jubilation and said “Allah Akber”.

According to sources, the operation has been successfully completed after eight hours of intense gun battle.

George L. Singleton
04-20-2009, 11:34 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6466

This article dateline 4/20/09 from the blog site Global Hujra Online (a part of the KhyberWatch.com site) gives a chilling, blunt, and factual picture of how the Taliban terrorists have been setting up in norhtern Pakistan ever since the 1990s with the aide and assistance of the national government and even provincial governments of this troubled now lawless area of Pakistan.

The article moves to the conclusion that the Taliban are now organized in brigade strength and are soon, within a matter of weeks, to attempt an invasion of the City of Islamabad.

Over the weekend I noticed some commentary/letters to the editor of DAWN in Karachi suggesting that the Government of Pakistan withdraw to and again have the capital of Pakistan in Karachi, where it was when I was stationed at the old US Embassy in 1963-1965.

My summary comment: Religious civil war is happening inside Pakistan which even in SWAT and other Northern Pakistan areas the locals and their leaders, the tribal elders, are unable to stop even with force of their own arms. The Taliban are being equipped/supplied with heavy weaponry by the ISI and are capturing NATO destined heavy weaponry enroute to Afghanistan via Pakistan ground routes as well.

Expensive though it may be, airlifting weaponry and ammunition into Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, is an immediate necessity in my opinion.

jmm99
04-20-2009, 04:36 PM
Extremist Tide Rises in Pakistan (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/19/AR2009041901731_pf.html)


After Reaching Deal in North, Islamists Aim to Install Religious Law Nationwide
By Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, April 20, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, April 19 -- A potentially troubling era dawned Sunday in Pakistan's Swat Valley, where a top Islamist militant leader, emboldened by a peace agreement with the federal government, laid out an ambitious plan to bring a "complete Islamic system" to the surrounding northwest region and the entire country.

Speaking to thousands of followers in an address aired live from Swat on national news channels, cleric Sufi Mohammed bluntly defied the constitution and federal judiciary, saying he would not allow any appeals to state courts under the system of sharia, or Islamic law, that will prevail there as a result of the peace accord signed by the president Tuesday.

"The Koran says that supporting an infidel system is a great sin," Mohammed said, referring to Pakistan's modern democratic institutions. He declared that in Swat, home to 1.5 million people, all "un-Islamic laws and customs will be abolished," and he suggested that the official imprimatur on the agreement would pave the way for sharia to be installed in other areas.

Mohammed's dramatic speech echoed a rousing sermon in Islamabad on Friday by another radical cleric, Maulana Abdul Aziz, who appeared at the Red Mosque in the capital after nearly two years in detention and urged several thousand chanting followers to launch a crusade for sharia nationwide. ....

George L. Singleton
04-20-2009, 10:17 PM
The actual article my internet reference was linked to this morning has somehow "changed" so I am going to post parts of the article directly, but not the whole article, parts that describe how now they next Taliban step within a few weeks is to invade Islamabad.

George Singleton

George L. Singleton
04-21-2009, 12:46 AM
As found 4/18/09

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/taliban-influence-in-bureaucracy--za

This story was copied/repeated 4/20/09 on Global Hujra Online website but the refernce to that site which I posted earlier today, 4/20/09 does not now connect to this original DAWN story as repeated in Hujra Online.

Taliban influence in bureaucracy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Taliban influence in bureaucracy
By A. Ameer

Many who saw the 1994 uprising of Malakand Division bear testimony to the fact that the present commissioner of the division provided all-out help to the insurgents (Taliban) coming from Dir to Swat.

THE growing threat of violent extremism in different parts of Pakistan including Fata and Malakand Division is a matter of serious concern.

The harrowing factor is that the writ of the Taliban is solidifying both in the north and the south not only in the Pashtun belt but also in the heartland of Pakistan.

That a high-level provincial official posted in Swat should write a letter to the NWFP home department implying the complicity of the commissioner of Malakand Division in the ever-expanding influence of the Taliban in the region is an illustration of what is happening and how.

An alliance of extremist forces in Kashmir, Punjab, Fata and the NWFP and their strategy for Pakistan’s disintegration in the near future have virtually paralysed the administrations in the different settled districts of the NWFP — not to mention the threats made by extremists to invade Islamabad very soon.

After the February peace deal between the NWFP government and the banned Tehrik Nifaz-i-Shariat Mohammadi (TNSM), the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) chapter of Swat started a three-pronged assault on the state.

Firstly, the Swat chapter of the TTP started recruitment and the construction of bunkers on a large scale in different parts of Swat while the military and security establishment and the government maintained control in different ways. The security establishment and the Pakistani government seem to be oblivious of the fact that the Taliban movement is far more agile than the security establishment’s response to their onslaught from different directions.

Secondly, the Swat chapter of the TTP, in line with the Taliban alliances in Fata and the rest of Pakistan, were readjusting and relocating therein and have started expanding their assaults from the north to the south of the NWFP. The present onslaught by the Taliban on Buner and Dir is part of this strategy.

Thirdly, the Taliban have started consolidating their positions vis-à-vis the security establishment by controlling strategic passes and side valleys of Swat, Buner, Shangla and Dir. In this scenario, reports that a part of the civil bureaucracy in the NWFP, Fata and elsewhere in Pakistan facilitates the process of Talibanisation is likely to be a worrisome factor for elements within and outside the country.

The present commissioner of Malakand Division is said to have been posted in lower Dir in the early 1990s when the TNSM was in the process of becoming a formidable extremist organisation with a jihadi ideology. The commissioner was said to have been a frequent visitor of Maulana Sufi Mohammad’s madressah and allegedly worked behind the scenes with the initial support of the local khans for the TNSM in 1994 when it brought the whole administration of Malakand Division to a standstill. Many who saw the 1994 uprising of Malakand Division bear testimony to the fact that the present commissioner of the latter provided all-out help to the insurgents coming from Dir to Swat.

In the early era of Fazlullah’s rise in Swat, again the present commissioner of Malakand Division was posted as the district coordination officer. He was the one, according to local residents, who facilitated the establishment of Fazlullah’s FM radio. He was the one who convinced the local jirga of Mamdherai and Mingora to allow the FM radio to function. It was reported in 2006-07 in the local press that when the Taliban in Swat started destroying CD shops and barber shops and the owners would go to the DCO office for complaints, the DCO would tell them to close the shops because, according to him, running the business was un-Islamic. The present commissioner was also seen by the locals visiting Mamdherai markaz (centre) for Friday prayers frequently.

On April 5, 2009 a battalion of the Taliban militia with heavy weaponry crossed over the hills from Swat to Buner to avowedly supervise the implementation of the Nizam-i-Adl. The local residents of Buner had been resisting the inflow of the Taliban for a long time. The local elders intervened and tried to convince the Taliban to return but the latter opened fire at them, leaving several injured. Later the Taliban captured three policemen and two civilians, and killed them.

The local residents, the people of lower Buner and Sultanwas, gathered to move upward to face the Taliban while the people of upper Buner provided reinforcements. Fighting began and in the ensuing gun-battle some 17 members of the Taliban are said to have been killed. The questions on the minds of the local people were: why would the Taliban come with heavy weapons if they did not want to control Buner? And why were the Taliban allowed by the commissioner to move from Swat to Buner with heavy weapons?

On April 6, a delegation of the TNSM along with the commissioner Malakand Division went to Buner to negotiate with the local elders. They tried to convince the local elders to allow the Taliban to enter the valley. While the delegation engaged the local administration and the elders of Buner, the Taliban started getting reinforcements. In the context of the Taliban expansion to Buner, it is interesting to note the ideological role played by the relatively less known Jamaati Ashaatutoheed WaSunna, the creation of Maulana Tahir Panjpiri, the father of the infamous Major Amir, a well-known IB and ISI operative in the past and allegedly behind the notorious Operation Midnight Jackal. Major Amir, Syed Mohammad Javed (the present commissioner Malakand Division) and Maulana Sufi Mohammad are said to have been quite close since a long time.

According to eyewitnesses, during the recent stand-off between the Taliban and the people of Buner, the commissioner of Malakand Division made efforts to convince the people to allow the Taliban to enter Buner. The commissioner is said to have become annoyed with the superintendent of police in Buner for informing the people about the impending onslaught by the Taliban on the former...

Other specifics omitted...The writer/author works with a research organization. SEE DAWN WEBSITE ABOVE FOR COMPLETE ARTICLE.

Sorry for the lousy website I referenced earlier today which does not now connect to this article for unknown reasons.

George Singleton

George L. Singleton
04-23-2009, 11:10 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6655

Please take time to read all the postings by various Pakhtuns on GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE blog site as their statements are grim, estimating the whole Pakistan ball of was could collapse within 6 months.

I have noticed via media renewed helictoper and tactical aircraft attacks against advancing Taliban, but I keep getting private e-mails from those still there saying what is most needed now are Pakistani Army and Frontier Corp troops, on the ground, attacking and defeating directly the Taliban. This as we all know is not happening.

My two cents as a very old Pakistan hand (1963-1965) is that the idiots who are treating this whole collapse inside Pakistan as happened in 1938 in Munich with the Nazis is that the Pak military will try to stir up a new fight with India to distract everyone, and in the process get themselves stomped on by the Indian Army and then Pakistan will be wide open for Taliban/al Qaida completion of an internally violent take over.

BIGGEST cultural issue is unwillingness of Pakhtuns to fight the Taliban who are also ethnic Pakhtuns. Hidden in this dicotomy is the long standing, simmering interest of some but not all by any means Pakhtuns to revolt against both Pakistan and Afghanistan and form a new nation, Pakhtuwana, or some such title.

Pakhtuns nationalism is contributing to the problem and in my opinion is a 100% direct enabler of the advance of the Taliban.

Big damn mess.

Piranha
04-23-2009, 12:53 PM
I share George L. Singleton's impression that this situation seems to be ‘another Munich 1938’: somebody allowed ‘them’ to take Sudeten-Germany, and now they are invading Czechoslovakia … and what happens? Not too much, it seems. Though knowing quite a lot on Islam, something about Pakistan, something on Afghanistan, I don’t know what to do, i.e. where to start, except groaning silently behind my civilian desk.

Best regards,

Piranha

- no rank, no PhD
-- but neither incompetent nor ignorant on this kind of things.

goesh
04-23-2009, 01:01 PM
Here on the home front, we seem fully engaged with torture memos at the moment and this most serious problem is getting little attention.


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517555,00.html

"The six Frontier Constabulary platoons arrived in Buner on Wednesday, days after militants from the neighboring Swat Valley began infiltrating the area in large numbers, establishing checkpoints, patrolling roads and spreading fear."

I can't help but be skeptical and wonder if they are armed with Brit .303s ?
I suppose the average reader of FOX News will assume all will be well with Constables on hand.

"Also Thursday, dozens of militants armed with guns and gasoline bombs attacked a truck terminal elsewhere in northwest Pakistan, burning five tanker trucks carrying fuel to NATO troops in Afghanistan, police said."

George L. Singleton
04-24-2009, 06:33 AM
It is the BBC, as usual, which is badly under reporting the news from SWAT, FATA, the NWFP, and the North and South parts of Waziristan.

davidbfpo
04-24-2009, 12:53 PM
More "stop & start" in Pakistan, if this is true: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/5212292/Taliban-withdraws-from-Pakistans-Buner-district.html

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
05-07-2009, 10:15 AM
Folks:

The longer discussions below are Internet reference only cited for your in depth reading/study.

These guys are breakaway nationalist Pakhtuns fantasizinga about how "their" new nation of Pakhtuwana, made up of most of Afghanistan and the Northern parts of Pakistan would subdue religious extremism in order to have a more open, tolerant society.

A pipe dream but maybe some good ideas exist here to be constructively used/applied if we can figure out how to get down to the uneducated masses of Pakhtuns level of understanding, where concepts and big picture thinking are "unimaginable" when the lack of proper basics of life are staring them in the face at the moment.

But, I pulled out a couple of pieces of this Pakhtun ideological discussion, which I would suggest belong under the topic/concept of Civil Affairs, to show that some, far too few is my best guess, of today’s worldwide dispora of Pahtuns think at a higher on occasion.

How does all this fit into COIN and ”Surge” discussion?

Looks to me like hand in glove but the problem is and will be that only a local/Pashtun or cadres of same can effectively talk with and reason with the less educated local Pashtuns to address how to delimit “religion” into a self or individual process from a one size fits all bloody oppressive process which includes and involves the worst versions of Sharia, where much is made up as they go by Mullahs whose goals and purposes are in my view all to often self serving and created to achieve their delineated goals of what radical Islam is or is not and how it should be “the” only version of Islam.

Tribalism in it’s most basic form sees the world through brainwashed, largely uneducated but religion tainted/driven eyes as Islam or death, simply put.

We delt with versions of such a mindset with the Japanese in WWII and to some extent with the Nazi bastardization of “religion” in the European Theater. But never were we up against such a totally backward, technologically speaking, culture(s) as we face in SW Asia today in such a disjointed fashion.

George.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69136#post69136
Posted by: Spogmai
On: 05-06-2009 12:38 PM

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69150#post69150
Posted by: dardmand
On: 05-06-2009 02:35 PM


http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69161#post69161
Posted by: Baygham
On: 05-06-2009 03:12 PM


---Quote (Originally by Spogmai)---
.................
A world in upheaval and convulsion, that is our World. Bloodshed, destruction, violence on an unprecedented scale; the breakdown of so many social conventions, a clash of ideologies, an embittered, all-round fight for new ways of life, these are the signs of our time. ......................
---End Quote---
Actually the world has been the most stable over the last 10-20 years than in any time in its history. No major famines, no major pandemics, no mass killing of peaple. Unfortunately we the pashtoon have not been part of that good fortune thanks to our mentality of looking back to a time when the average age was 27, (the average age in roman times in rome and in no way less than in ancient arabia), where plague and malaria killed more than all the wars of all humanity of all times. Where war and killing was a norm.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69162#post69162
Posted by: Dirojae
On: 05-06-2009 03:13 PM


---Quote (Originally by dardmand)---
There is no such thing as* absolute values*.
---End Quote---
How do 'values' evolve? Since we want to reduce Islam and other religions to the private sphere in out future territorial entity, what then shall govern our morality and social mores? Shall we go down the path of Europe, as it has after the Middle and Papal Ages?
************

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69170#post69170
Posted by: Baygham
On: 05-06-2009 04:42 PM


---Quote (Originally by Dirojae)---
How do 'values' evolve? Since we want to reduce Islam and other religions to the private sphere in out future territorial entity, what then shall govern our morality and social mores? Shall we go down the path of Europe, as it has after the Middle and Papal Ages?
---End Quote---
The issue of morality, public law, laws governing commerce, trade, private property and resource distribution will all come about. The biggest reason for the appeal of taliban is the absolute decay of our morality and justice and a strong yearning to correct that. In the absence of any viable vision all eyes then fall on 'imaginary glorious early islam'. This is essentially an escape mechanism to lesson the torment we are in by imagining an imaginary solution.

So if not 'early islam' than what? Since one is usually killed before one can calculate an answer on charges of blasphemy this has never been openly discussed in our society. But the time is right for it to be discussed. I being under no illusion of islams capacity to deliver a better life on earth and far away from the clutches of taliban and hence away from a 'horrible death of a murtad' can share my two cents.

Religion in my opinion should be personal. You can call it the 'Dairiy islam'. meaning take a small stick and mark a circle around yourself with that stick. You will find yourself in a circle. The dairiy (circle) islam is your islam inside that circle. Do as you may please. Wash your behind or dont wash it, its all yours. The mullahs are limited to quide you for the 'proper way' inside the circle. Under no circumstance can that #### be allowed to come out of the circle (outside in the public domain). Religion becomes a personal excercise of spiritual journey and calmness for personal satisfaction.

In the public space (civic and criminal law) is based on common law derived from our heritage that is changed according to our needs (commercial and private) in norms with global trends, always with the mindset to enhance collective well beings of pashtoons. This is a changing law that is changed if the objectives are not met. The purpose of the law is not to make a God happy but to limit the expression of harmful behaviours and enhance the expression of fruitful behaviours, measured by its utility in enhancing happiness and safety versus sadness and exploitation.

George L. Singleton
05-07-2009, 10:47 AM
This is taken from KhyberWatch.com, sub blog page: Global Hujra Online and interestingly suggests anti-Americanism is not as rampant as the Pakistani and other world media might have us believe.

Your thoughtful opinions invited on this topic, in conjunctin with how this very different suggested theme of more pro than anti Americanism seems in context of Admiral Olsen's article of goals and objectives.

George.

Today, 05:16 AM
dardmand
Salaar Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,205




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirojae
Here goes:
Anti-Americanism runs very deep among the Pashtun populace as opposed to Anti-Pakistanism or even anti-Talibanism which is unfortunate and hypocritical considering the fact that Muslim Pakistan has failed to provide security to Pashtuns, has looted our resources and oppressed our Nationhood and culture more than any non-Muslim force ever has. Consider this: Pashtuns in Eastern Pashtun Watan can still be seen having a soft corner for the Taliban regime of Mullah Omar. It is still considered a legitimate resistance movement waging 'Jihad' against the infidel US. I have been bashed quite a few times for preferring the Infidel US over the Muslim Punjabi. So, as things stand at the moment, US is not welcome in Pashtun Watan.

The Anti-Americanism you are talking about is the hype of the Pakistani media and and the right-wing security apparatus of the state. This apparently got acceptance mainly because the indoctrination process all at level is unchallenged. This is the superficial judgment of the situation. Even this superfluous conclusion can easily be reputed with one example that it was the US which supported the Afghan Fasad and the Mullahs, Militants and the Military received huge amount of money from the US for their so-called Jehad. The ordinary people loved to get US Green Card.

In the recent few years it seems Anti-Americanism is one rise. It is true about Pakistan in general but it is totally false as far as Pukhtoons are concerned. If people could relate Anti-Americanism with the victory of MMA in 2002 Elections I can as well relate Pro-Americanism with the victory of ANP in 2008 Elections. But this is also not my point.

There is no such thing as Anti-Americanism in Pukhtoonkhwa though the Pakistani media is quite successful to perpetuate it in Punjab. They have their own reasons for that because they can easily predict their near future and the collapse of the state which they have been dominating so far. Inside Pukhtoonkhwa Pukhtoon intelligentsia and the secular and moderate political forces are openly in favor of America, Fazlu Rahman supports America behind the screen and only Jumat-e-Islami is against it. The rest of the population don’t care whether they are government by the Pakis or American as long as their life is secured and they receive cheap food, low utility bills and low inflation rate. Quite recently the situation has drastically changed because the people have lost all hopes in state institutions. Initially Taliban exploited the situations but when they saw the real face of Taliban they are praying for the devil to free them from the Taliban on the one hand and the brutal state institution on the other hand. In such case people have all eyes on the Americans. In Orakazai people have already welcomed drone attacks and in Swat the situation will be no more different. Let’s see what reports come from other part of Pukhtoonkhwa but I am dead sure they will be no different from the one we receive from Waziristan and Orakzai.

There is another psychological aspect of the so-called Anti-Americanism in Pukhtoonkhwa. The people are jealous with the Americans and their massive development; at the same time the people expect the Americans to help them. When they see no ray of hope they start barging against the American but in their heart they knew the old British Masters and their infrastructure was more people friendly than the one they experienced in Pakistan. This nostaligia for the colonialism is testimony to the fact that the people will welcome the American if they come to help and rescue Pukhtoons.

George L. Singleton
05-07-2009, 12:59 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69203#post69203

Swat refugees status report as of Thursday, May 7, 2009.

Should be of general interest.

George L. Singleton
05-07-2009, 01:19 PM
Several good articles in the May, 2009 NEWSLETTER of the Alternate Solutions Institute in Lahore, Pakistan.

http://asinstitute.org/newsletter101

Piranha
05-13-2009, 10:32 AM
PESHAWAR Pakistan
- published already some time ago, but imho still deserving attention

Archbishop Lawrence John Saldanha of Lahore has written to the country's president and prime minister expressing concern over the government's allowing of Islamic law to be implemented in the northwest.
"We note with sorrow that your government has failed to take stock of the concerns of civil society in Pakistan in your decision," says the April 16 letter by the head of the Catholic Church in Pakistan. On April 13, President Asif Ali Zardari signed the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation 2009 after it was approved by parliament.
In February, the government of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) reached a peace deal with local Taliban militants, who had been fighting for 18 months to impose Shari'a or Islamic law. The new regulation brings six districts, including the restive Swat Valley, under the Pakistani Taliban's strict interpretation of Shari'a.
Archbishop Saldanha's letter states that "besides jeopardizing the socio-economic and cultural growth in Swat and Malakand (division)," the decision has also given legal sanction to the "dictates of the trigger-happy Taliban." The letter adds that the resolution "erodes constitutional protections for minorities and women." The prelate adds that now minority communities in the province "are forced to end ure unemployment, intimidation and migration." He notes that St. Mary's school, convent and chapel in Sangota, Swat, as well as the Don Bosco School in Bannu, have been bombed. He also points out that Christian, Hindu and Sikh families have been forced to flee because the Taliban imposed on them jizia, a tax levied on non-Muslims living under Islamic rule.
Archbishop Saldanha concluded his letter by insisting that "religion has to be regarded as a personal matter and should have nothing to do with the affairs of state." The archbishop, who is president of the Pakistan Catholic Bishops' Conference, and Peter Jacob, executive secretary of the bishops' National Commission for Justice and Peace, signed the letter titled "Protection of Minorities, Militancy and Nizam-e-Adl." Other Christian leaders have also criticized the government for approving Shari'a in Taliban-controlled areas. Prince Javed, a Christian member of the NWFP assembly, told UCA News: "We are still unclear how qazi courts would affect the Christians of these regions." Qazi are judges under the Shari'a system. Javed, also president of the NWFP chapter of the minority AII Pakistan Minority Alliance, asserted that "only the constitution" can safeguard minorities.
A catechist in Peshawar, the NWFP capital, disagreed with having two different sets of laws in the country. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that the only Catholic church in the city cancelled both its Easter and Christmas celebrations amidst the Taliban threat. Media reports have quoted Muslim Khan, a local Taliban spokesman, as saying it is not subservient to the country's constitution but is committed to Shari'a.

source info: Union of Catholic Asian News

George L. Singleton
05-14-2009, 09:48 AM
Once you plow through the immature rantings of overseas Pakhtun high school students in places like London, in Canada, and Australia, where they and their parents live well and have freedoms impossible in Pakhtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan...then you get to some rational, common sense mature remarks and dialogue such as this May 13, 2009 posting on Global Hujra Online:


khyaal
Salaar Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hashnaghar Pakhtunkhwa
Posts: 1,517

Originally Posted by aimal khan May 13, 2009:

In this context Budhas were destroyed by Wahabism inspired Taliban not USA, Pakistan or others. In Swat what happened is the replica of the Taliban ruled Afghanistan not the formative phase of Taliban by USA, Pakistan or others.

For your information the whole plan of Taliban had been planned by Pakistan and Saudis and it is has been confessed by Naseer ullah Babar, the then Interiour minister of Pakistan. Just read the book 'Taliban' by Ahmad Rashid and you will know the whole truth. Now it is an established fact that Pakistan confesses its role of capturing Afghanistan through Taliban and the architects of the plan were General Aslam Beg and General Hamid Gul, former DG ISI.

For your information the strategic depth concept against india was that of Paksitan and not of US. After the end of Afghan proxy war in in 1988 US imposed sactions on Pakistan under Pressler amendment bill, and thus US completely dissociated itself from Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Further, for your information, the US government till the very last moment of Taliban regime didn't recognise that regime, on the contrary US considered Burhan ud din Rabbani's government as the legitimate afghan government.

Throughout the world it was only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE helped estabish Taliban regime and recognised Taliban against that of the UN as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.

The regime of Taliban would be run through the militant pakistani organisation like Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish Mohammad, and people from military like, General Mahamood, former DG ISI and Col. Imam. (col. Amir Sultan from Gujrat).

See following series of postings, but in particular posting #1:

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69664&posted=1#post69664

MikeF
05-17-2009, 09:37 PM
Mark Kukis, a Texan reporter for Time Magazine, is one of my favorite journalist. He's started his own blog here (http://www.markkukis.blogspot.com/). Currently, he writes for Time Magazine. He has spent time in the White House, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. In Iraq, he lived day in and day out with my boys. Here is his latest on Pakistan.

v/r

Mike

Beyond the valley in Pakistan (http://markkukis.blogspot.com/2009/05/campaign-after-swat.html)


The Pakistani military appears poised to deliver a blow to Taliban fighters holed up in Swat Valley, which has seen a massive refugee exodus. The picture of how the battle is unfolding day to day is murky at best. There are few, if any, journalists in the area, and neither the Pakistani army nor the Taliban can be expected to provide honest accounts.

The eventual outcome is already clear nonetheless. In the days ahead, Pakistani troops will overrun the Taliban positions in Mingora, the valley’s main town. Taliban survivors of the assault will scatter and begin to regroup for a counterpunch. Pakistan now has an insurgency on its hands, and so it will go like this for as long as one side or the other is willing to keep up the fight.

But the battles in the counter-insurgency campaign Pakistan is now undertaking distract from the real mission the government must launch, i.e. bringing the tribal territories where the Taliban were born under government control. The military will have a role in that to be sure, but the real work to be done is in development of this desperately poor region.

For decades the central government of Pakistan has allowed tribal rule of its territories bordering Afghanistan. Islamabad has granted the tribal territories government support such as roads and basic services but without demanding that the societies who benefit from this state support adhere to systematic rule of law like the rest of the country. That’s why you see the occasional news of a public stoning in the tribal territories, where the central government usually leaves law and order to tribesman rather than police and courts. Nuclear Pakistan allows, even encourages, a huge swath of the country’s population to languish in underdevelopment and backwardness. This must end if Pakistan is to escape the fate of failed states.

There are many voices in Pakistan and even the West who may balk at the idea of judging an entire society’s way of life as “backwards” and consider it an imperial insult. To that I would say: Bull####. There are societal norms we can all agree are good. Things like low infant mortality, literacy and longevity. These development indicators all point in the wrong direction in tribal societies and have throughout time. There is an enormous body of scholarship documenting this truth. Read Nonzero by Robert Wright and Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond for a start if you need convincing that romantic notions of tribalism serve only to perpetuate human suffering.

The reasons why Pakistan has preserved its tribalism are part cultural, part economic and part strategic. Regardless, the result of brooking tribalism for decades amounts to a social and political disaster for all involved. The people in the tribal territories of Pakistan live in some of the deepest poverty found in Asia or the Islamic world. And the militancy bred there now threatens to undo much of the rest of the country’s progress, hence the fleeing of more than a million Pakistanis from Swat, a formerly bucolic tourist destination.

The Pakistani military can and must defeat Taliban forces on various battlefields in the months and years ahead. But no number of military victories can solve the root problem. To civilize the tribal territories will require a massive act of well-intentioned statecraft along with a completely altered political view from Pakistan’s leadership on what the country will be in a future time, when perhaps the residents of Swat have returned home.

George L. Singleton
05-20-2009, 12:57 PM
These excellent photos of displaced families/people in Pakistan (including one young boy with his even younger sister who show great entrepaneurial spirit by setting up shop to sell food items under a tent top (shamiani) take only a few seconds to go through and paint a clear picture of the Pakhtuns who are the direct descendants of the legions of Alexander the Great:

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=70411#post70411

George L. Singleton
05-23-2009, 01:45 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6844

Here is a partial quote from the article, which for a Pakistani commentary is about the best you can find in print over there to buck up the population and support their Army in the field against the terrorists, the Taliban and al Qaida:


#9 Yesterday, 03:43 AM
WatanGul
Salaar Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,284


Pakistan's first (or rather second) true war

We are in a tight spot, no doubt about it, facing domestic enemies and external pressures. But if we emerge from this test successfully -- and there is no reason on earth why we should not -- we will be a stronger nation, leaving many of our present troubles behind us. Wars are never a good thing but when they become unavoidable, as on this occasion, they test a people's mettle. Whether we like it or not, great nations, throughout history, have been forged in the fire of conflict.

If I may be forgiven another de Gaulle quote: "The sword is the axis of the world and its power is absolute." The world as we know it has been shaped by the power of the sword. In the mountains and valleys of Malakand it is our sword against the Taliban's. We win and the Republic is secured. They win -- and I am only presenting this as an argument --Pakistan as we know it is lost. It's as simple as that.

It is always possible to take exception to the conduct of military operations. If an army botches an operation, if it suffers too many needless casualties, if it is not properly led in battle, if soldiers shirk their duty, if a sledgehammer is used when something lighter could have sufficed, it is perfectly legitimate and even necessary to point out these things. But to be critical about the tactical aspects of any particular operation is quite different from questioning the entire basis of the present war which is what some of our more confused politicos and media people are doing.

In the first two or three years of the Second World War nothing went right for the British. But no one said that Britain should make peace with Hitler. The Soviets suffered catastrophic losses when Hitler attacked the Soviet Union. But that did not persuade Stalin to sue for peace.

So it is a bit baffling to hear some of our astute thinkers who, even at this late hour, are mouthing clichés about dialogue and a 'political settlement'. Dialogue with whom? Maulana Fazlullah, the Reverend Muslim Khan whose aim is not dialogue but the establishment of an Al Qaeda--inspired emirate?

If they were at all interested in a peaceful solution they would have seized upon the Swat accord, which was wholly to their advantage, and made it stick. But peace was not their agenda. Before even the ink on the accord was dry, they set about expanding their sphere of control. That's when the roof came crashing down on their heads, for which they have only themselves to blame.

George L. Singleton
05-27-2009, 10:39 PM
Peshawar FRONTIER POST front page article May 28, 2009

(The writer of this article works in the Lahore branch office of the FRONTIER POST newspaper)

Main battle must now be fought by the people Lahore Note Book

Rahim Sheikh

Our office is just 25 yards from the place terrorists attacked the 15 Police Rescue office. My office is no more. Why attack an ambulance and rescue service? This is a clear sign of desperation.

This is a call to all Pakistanis to weed out extremists living among the community. My view is that the real target was the ISI office just across the street.

Two senior Army officers have also been killed, so tells us official sources. This is besides the over 40 policemen and citizens who perished in this mindless blast, not to speak of the hundreds injured, some very badly.

The "recoil" of the military operation in the NWFP will continue, as the terrorists, clearly enemies of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) and his religion of peace, hit back before finally being overwhelmed.

In an earlier piece one had said that we should not live in an illusion. This is a fight to the end. But mind you, the terrorists will be overwhelmed by the people.

Yes, the Pakistan Army and the police of all the provinces will bear the brunt, but the main battle must now be fought by the people. The main action was an initial gunfight, followed by one explosion. The rebound of the blast was as severe. After all, a 100 kilo bomb is no joke.

This was a huge attack, very well planned and one is also hearing reports of two persons firing after the blast and escaping.

We also hear of six arrests, maybe half of them innocent, or so it seems. But even in this hour of anguish, Pakistanis must not lose their head. This is going to be a very long and bitter fight, and we must not lose sight of the objective … that is to save Pakistan and make it a true Islamic republic where no Islamic political parties are allowed to function to promote the exclusion of other Muslims. That is why such moves on the political front, in the Constitution, are critical.

The war against terrorism must now be widened to include the people of Pakistan. The people of Lahore and the Punjab will also be hit, and hit badly. In return the people of the NWFP, FATA and PATA know full well that enough food will be provided by the Punjab to keep going. That is why this war must be fought in every village of the NWFP and Punjab. It must be organised at the village and streets level.

All religious leaders must be kept under scrutiny and all 'talibs' must be watched, especially by their own families. This war will have to be fought at the family level.

We have lessons in our own history to learn from. Take the Thug Campaign. That was a war won by the intelligence services and by the ruthless elimination of all thugs. Mind you even that was a religious sect. They had to be eliminated. Sadly, that happens when beliefs cross all reason. It hurts humanity, and humanity must never be violated, just as the Taliban are doing.

But on the other side of the spectrum we must accept that Pakistan is a very corrupt society where honest effort is not rewarded. Governance is bad, justice is denied and economic development is ignored.

As in our case this entire mess has been triggered by the Afghan War, we must accept that the entire world should assist. But, in the end it is our country, and we have the motivation to beat these extremists.

That is why we must make sure that terrible attacks like the Lahore Blast must not derail our effort to eliminate the Taliban. They are a genuine threat to Islam and to our way of life; they are a threat to the entire female population, to all educated men, to men of vision and to the wise old men of our villages and cities.

In short, this is a threat to our civilization. Let not this blast derail the war. Battles are lost, of that there is no fear. But we must not lose the war.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=ts&nid=1356

IntelTrooper
05-27-2009, 11:39 PM
Interesting that this article places responsibility on Pakistanis but expects international aid since the situation was "caused by the Afghan War." Perhaps they have forgotten where the Taliban movement was born...

George L. Singleton
05-27-2009, 11:54 PM
Thanks for your input. Latvia is a brave nation which has been a loyal Western ally since becoming independent of the old USSR.

IntelTrooper
05-28-2009, 12:20 AM
Thanks for your input. Latvia is a brave nation which has been a loyal Western ally since becoming independent of the old USSR.
You bet. Hopefully my avatar isn't too misleading -- although I am of Latvian heritage, I'm not a Latvian citizen. I did have the honor of serving with a Latvian OMLT (NATO embedded training team) in Afghanistan. My avatar is in memory of the two Latvian mentors killed recently in Konar Province.

George L. Singleton
05-28-2009, 01:19 AM
My prayers go up for your two Latvian friends.

While I am 69 years old, we have friends children and grandchildren who are adult soldiers, sailors, and airmen serving in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq today.

I pray for all in harms way.

Thanks for clarifying your US identity with Latvian connections.

George L. Singleton
05-29-2009, 12:53 AM
Click on Internet subject line for complete article dateline 5/28/09 in the Peshawar edition of the FRONTIER POST.


http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=ts&nid=1355

View of destruction at 15, Frontier Post offices Massive blast kills 30, injure 300 in Lahore F.P. Report

LAHORE: Gunmen detonated a car bomb in 'Rescue 15' office in the heart of the city on Queens Road on Wednesday, killing around 30 people, including 15 policemen and eight civilians, and wounding over 300 according to the official version. Four men with rifles alighted from the car and opened fire on the intelligence agency building, then set off a massive blast almost immediately when security guards returned the fire, officials said. The explosion sheared the walls of buildings in a main business district. The Frontier Post Office which is only 50 metres away from the blast was almost fully destroyed with cracks in the walls, windows smashed and doors blown from their hinges.The ceilings of operating rooms in a nearby hospital collapsed, injuring 20 people. A row of car show rooms saw the windows of their brand new cars shatter.

George L. Singleton
05-29-2009, 07:16 PM
I have removed identifying info on this 5/29/09 e-mail received by me today from a location outside of Swat. This writer has some family members still in Swat [whom they visited with earlier this year].

Tough reading if all is in fact as alleged in this note. Past experience has been that this writer is sound and truthful, but here they use some "heresay" info which is up for "interpretation."

Dear Mr Singleton,

Thank you for the articles (copies of some recent days 3 letters to editor of the FRONTIER POST back and forth between me and a fellow in Lahore who seems pro-Taliban/al Qaida.)

My family from the Swat valley that did not leave are giving horrifying accounts of the conditions there.

The Taliban fed captured soldiers through a thresher and video taped it. From what I hear the CD is easily available in Peshawar as Swat 4. Swat1-3 are of beheadings and other executions before this operation.

By some accounts the dead soldiers in this operation number in the 500's as oposed to the statement of 90 from the government.

It looks like the Pak Gov is really trying to quash the Taliban, but many of them are also getting away. Two weeks ago Fazalullah was said to have broadcast over his illegal FM radio that he did not understand why the army says they couldn't find him when it was they who had just dropped him off at his current safe house, I hope this is only propoganda and not some deal the goverment has worked out. During the curfews the Taliban were openly going to villages and dragging out and beheading any one who opposed them, that seems to have stopped for the time being.

There are other stories circulating of fleeing families gunned down both by the Taliban and the stench of rotting bodies getting unbearable in the summer heat. Food supplies ran out about 10 days ago and the army has selectively airdropped food at certain location, but with the curfew in place and no power people have run out of drinking water too. Medicine had run out 3 weeks ago. This current curfew that was imposed for 25 days still has about 10 more days to go and a big exodus is expected.

There were many pregnant women who were near their due dates and those that could not leave were left behind have probably delivered their babies in empty homes with no one to help them. 15 days ago when the curfew was lifted there were many reports of women giving birth on the road sides and of elderly people who dropped dead from exhaustion and heat.

It is a grim situation there and hopefully Pakistan has decided to get rid of the Taliban once and for all. I hope that the current hardship of the IDP's will be rewarded with a safe Swat to return to. END of e-mail of 5/29/09 to Singleton.

IntelTrooper
05-29-2009, 07:55 PM
In retaliation the Taliban fed captured soldiers through a thresher and video taped it. From what I hear the CD is easily available in Peshawar as Swat 4. Swat1-3 are of beheadings and other executions before this operation.


Hi George,

I'm working with contacts on the AfPak border to confirm/deny this section.

George L. Singleton
05-31-2009, 02:59 AM
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6350500.ece

This article focused in a young recently fled male MD from Mingora, the capital of Swat, is grizzly.

But, it sounds very much like other info I posed yesterday from another MD whose family is still inside Swat...which other info from yesterday concludes that this tim the Pak Army is really going after and seeking to finish off the Taliban. I hope the destruction literally of the Taliban and al Qaida in facts continues, as this is the only way to end their insane zealot terrorist religious insanity.

Wana88
06-03-2009, 01:36 AM
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3850


On Sunday, 25 more Taliban militants -- including a senior leader, Miraj Burki -- died in clashes with Pakistani security forces in Burki's strongholds in the Spinkai Raghzai and Tiarza areas of South Waziristan.

A resident of Jandola, interviewed by telephone, said that hundreds of troops along with heavy military hardware, including tanks and artillery pieces, were seen transiting the town last Tuesday. The troops were moving towards the Mehsud area, the stronghold of Baitullah Mehsud, head of Pakistan's largest militant group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Baitullah's operational commander, Qari Hussain, is close to the al-Qaida leadership in the area, so the latter is expected to fully back the Taliban militants in the fighting with government forces.

The military action against Baitullah is being launched while the Pakistani military is still fighting a tough battle against Taliban militants in certain parts of the Malakand district, including the Swat valley. [B]Critics have also questioned the rationale of Zardari's revealing the Waziristan operation well before it actually began."

Wana88
06-03-2009, 01:47 AM
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=22464


Monday, June 01, 2009

By Mushtaq Yusufzai &
Irfan Burki

"
PESHAWAR/WANA: Twenty-five militants, including a senior commander of Baitullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Miraj Burki, and six soldiers were killed and several others injured in the deadly clashes between the militants and security forces in the South Waziristan Agency (SWA) tribal region on Sunday night.
Other reports said 13 soldiers were killed and over two dozens injured in the two deadly attacks.
Fierce fighting between the militants and security forces forced thousands of the tribal families to leave their homes in the Mehsud-inhabited areas."

Raises the imp question: Where are the AQ/IMU etc "guests" relocating to???

Ron Humphrey
06-03-2009, 03:39 AM
Raises the imp question: Where are the AQ/IMU etc "guests" relocating to???

Guess it would be overly optimistic to hope that particular group will find no room at the inn.

George L. Singleton
06-03-2009, 11:43 AM
Ron, Wana, et al:

Baitullah Mehsud was the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. Mrs. Bhutto was the wife of current Pakistani President Zardari. I believe Zardari's military actions, which my sources say are hot, furious, and daily on-going in Wazaristan, are quite genuine and that Mehsud's demise is a clear cut goal for the Pakistani military currently.

North and South Waziristan have for too long been allowed to exist as terrorist "quasi states" within the theoretical boundaries of Pakistan.

Pakistan since it's inception in 1947 has had little control in these and other Norhtern Pakistan areas. Raj-era governance at the local levels was allowed to carry over in the founding of Pakistan, but then came the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, radicalization of the tribes and general Pakhtun population, and this and these religious terrorists, once the USSR was defeated and driven out, then turned on Pakistan, internally.

Around 7 million Pashtuns fled Afghanistan into Northern Pakistan during the war with the USSR. These millions of course kept having babies. Thus probably a majority of all Pakhtuns in Pakistan, numbering around 26 million total, likely have roots in and their familes came from [fled] Afghanistan for refugee camps and safe havens inside Pakistan.

Getting the displaced peoples, Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns alike out of the tent cities/refugee camps today and back into their home areas will require, must require permanent stationing of Pakistani military forces in areas never before permanently secured by garrisons, along with the Frontier Corp, which is made up largely of ethnic Pashuns, too.

My two cents this morning.

Wana88
06-03-2009, 12:31 PM
Guess it would be overly optimistic to hope that particular group will find no room at the inn.

Ron:
The foreign "guests" have been in these environs (SWA) primarily since after 9/11 (in the 80s their presence was minimal in SWA; more ensconced in NWA and particularly west of Parachinar (Kurram) and across the Durand in the Tora Bora area and Bajaur. But the bulk made "comfortable" Peshawar's University Town, and also the new development, Hyatabad, their home base.

Today their tentacles extend throughout Pak and they actually have never felt "comfortable" amongst the Pushtuns. Pushtuns aren't the more malleable Punjabis, and other Asian Muslims. Most Pushtuns don't buy into the Khaleej Arab racist thesis that promotes an Islamic "hierarchy" with the Khaleejis at the top as the "purest of the pure." Pushtuns perceive selves as just as equal as the next Arab and the Arab's never took kindly to this (80s). Also the ancient, passed down, narrative amongst the Pushtun of being "Bani Israel." Until fairly recently, Pushtuns would proudly subscribe to being "Israelites" by descent. And vociferously deny that they were "Jews." Two different entities in their minds. Yet,another "narrative" the "Afghan-Arabs" have worked hard at in extinguishing with much success.

Instead, the Afghan Arabs encouraged the "Arab descendants" hypothesis to convince their hosts that the Pushtuns actually have a lot of THIER (Arab) blood in them thus were blood brothers. This BS --and the Arabs aren't bad at IO-- plus free room and board at the madrassas; plus offers of employment in the Khaleej have resonated...for now. But the underlying hate and hostility between the Pushtuns (especially those in the Pushtun core: Khyber, NWA and SWA) and the Arabs is strong and deep. Pushtuns, xenophobic as they are, if provided appropriate "incentives" would quickly sell these "Arab brothers" with the exception of some die hard/well indoctrinated Pushtuns.

Ron Humphrey
06-03-2009, 04:34 PM
Ron:


Instead, the Afghan Arabs encouraged the "Arab descendants" hypothesis to convince their hosts that the Pushtuns actually have a lot of THIER (Arab) blood in them thus were blood brothers. This BS --and the Arabs aren't bad at IO-- plus free room and board at the madrassas; plus offers of employment in the Khaleej have resonated...for now. But the underlying hate and hostility between the Pushtuns (especially those in the Pushtun core: Khyber, NWA and SWA) and the Arabs is strong and deep. Pushtuns, xenophobic as they are, if provided appropriate "incentives" would quickly sell these "Arab brothers" with the exception of some die hard/well indoctrinated Pushtuns.

So could this lead one to conclude that the best way to encourage that last will be if the Pak military successfully follows the clearing their in the process of with good hold and build such as George referred to.?

Wana88
06-03-2009, 05:45 PM
1)Baitullah Mehsud was the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. "

2) North and South Waziristan have for too long been allowed to exist as terrorist "quasi states" within the theoretical boundaries of Pakistan.

3)...then came the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, radicalization of the tribes and general Pakhtun population, and this and these religious terrorists, once the USSR was defeated and driven out, then turned on Pakistan, internally.

4) Getting the displaced peoples, Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns .... back into their home areas will require, must require permanent stationing of Pakistani military forces in areas never before permanently secured by garrisons, along with the Frontier Corp, which is made up largely of ethnic Pashuns, too.

Just want to offer my two cents on these comments:
1)BM has never said he did it/was behind it. Raises question: what does HE (&TTP) gain by killing her?? Who else gains (and the list is LONG)?

2)Those who have proudly inhabited this area called "SWA" today would resent that statement. The truth is not so simple and is multifaceted. These qaums have been some of the most devoted followers of Pushtunwali (unwritten tribal code based on honor that predates Islam) and that has been their undoing vis-a-vis the Muslim/Arab "guests." Second, ask these proud, fiercely independent, residents if they'd wanted to join the state called "Pakistan" which would lead to being dominated by "foreigners" i.e. Punjabis. The answer is "no." They wanted to go their own way and/or rejoin their kin as part of Afghanistan. To obtain their "compliance" they were offered a semi-autonomous status within this new state. That is the only reason why outright war did not break out as in an insurgency at partition in '48. That was the deal. Ask a Pushtun from the FATA and he'll say he is an Afridi first, a Pushtun second, a Muslim third and a Pak fourth.

3)The Soviet genocide (primarily Pushtun focused) coupled with dictator Zia's manipulation/corruption and the rise of the Klashnikov and heroin culture coupled with the influx of every Tom, Dick and Abdullah from the Arab world who sought an adventure, has cost the social structure much.

4) Agree with aggressive and permanent, stationing in the settled areas of the NWFP; but to have non-Pushtun soldiers permanently based in SWA etc would be something that would not accepted by the tribes. Instead, negotiating w/the elders/maliks of each khel and to bolster the Frontier Corps would be best for now.
If the non-Pushtun seek to subdue the Pushtuns and to bring them into the state's fold they need to do it slowly with sincere offers of economic assistance and development which the locals want/have wanted for a while. But given Pak's current situation, this is unlikely to be forthcoming

George L. Singleton
06-03-2009, 11:07 PM
Wana88:

Telephone recorded evidence (you can read it on the Internet if you like) and comments by Batulla himself state he was the master planner behind the murder of Mrs. Bhutto.

What was gained? Chaos, which always benefits the terrorist cause inside Pakistan. Plus the terrorists were and are very much against "democracy" and the PPP which advocated more democracy and a more sectarian society.

Bearing in mind it was indeed long ago, bit I did live and work in Paksitan for almost two years, and later did business with Pakistan folks as an international banker. My comments today are built from current tense friends, locals, inside Pakistan, not "opinions."

Thanks for your reply, but Massud is the bad guy and President Zardari has the motivation of his wife's murder to go after him, and that he/the Pak military are doing, and I hope continue to do until he and his league of terrorists are wiped out.

Wana88
06-03-2009, 11:36 PM
but Massud is the bad guy and President Zardari has the motivation of his wife's murder to go after him, and that he/the Pak military are doing, and I hope continue to do until he and his league of terrorists are wiped out.

Mr S:
Never said BM did or didn't do it. No one knows all the facts or motivations --except the mastermind(s)behind what, on the surface, seems an open and shut case. But as all the growing list of "experts" on the place must know/understand, things are never what they seem thus the predilection for conspiracies by the "natives."
The young men who detonated certainly looked "Pushtun." But one should never take things at face value. Some say BM did Zardari a favor and that's the charitable view BTW thats bandied about.
As for BM being "bad;" well that is putting it rather mildly. He is just another meglomaniacal terrorist busy terrorizing (mostly his own kinsmen) fellow Muslims. As for Zardari's motivations well that is something better left for another discussion. This is a man who had his own brother in law (Murtaza) gunned down while BB sat on the throne. The only member of that cursed Bhutto family that has any credibility is Fatima Bhutto (Murtaza's daughter) and maybe ZUlfiqar junior but he is still young.
Finally, last but not least, is the Pak army also going to head down to Quetta and "take care" of the Taliban Central folks who are the VIP guests of ISI????

Beaten this dead horse enough...le fin.

George L. Singleton
06-15-2009, 10:15 PM
Finally, last but not least, is the Pak army also going to head down to Quetta and "take care" of the Taliban Central folks who are the VIP guests of ISI????


First, I believe the Quetta "clean out" is underway as I write this SWJ belated response...and thank you for your comments by the way. Quetta as you know is also the home of the Pakistani Army War College, an irony in and of itself.

But, as of right now Pakistan's President and total military are in 100% action against the Taliban and al Qaida, and for this we should be grateful, supportive, and insistent that it continue until the Taliban are put down and al Qaida flatly wiped off the map, literally.

I hope you saw the articles both in today's June 15 WASHINGTON POST and in the TIMES of London...quoting TIMES June 15 article in part about attacking and cleaning them out once and for all war from South Waziristan Taliban leader down to his forces, which TIMES article reads in part:


From The Times
June 15, 2009
Pakistan orders attack on Taleban leader Baitullah Mehsud


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6501450.ece

Jeremy Page and Rehmat Mehsud in Islamabad
Pakistan was mobilising troops and artillery today to launch a massive offensive against Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taleban, in his mountain stronghold of South Waziristan — also believed to be the hiding place of Osama bin Laden.

Military officials told The Times that the Government had ordered the attack and the military was pounding Mr Mehsud’s territory with heavy artillery and airstrikes and negotiating alliances with rival tribal leaders in preparation for a ground assault.

They also said that the army — already fighting the Taleban in Swat and several other parts of northwestern Pakistan — was engaged in its biggest military operation since the 1971 war that split Pakistan and created Bangladesh.

sabers8th
06-19-2009, 02:27 PM
From the International News in Pakistan Lt-Gen (r) Asad Durrani wrote a piece entitled COIN for Dummies. It is about the Pakistan Military's offensive against the Taliban.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=183348

The intro:

"One should see the whole before the parts" – Fredrick the Great



Indeed, one should. The problem is that faced with imminent threats, the whole was of no use. If the Taliban were all set to break out for Islamabad, the only part that mattered was whether they would take the motorway or come over the Margalla Hills. Some in that case would have 'called-in the Marines', or the Drones. We have neither, so we yelled for the army. Well it is there, once again; this time to root out this evil once and for all. A reasonable desire, but coming from us sounds a bit strange. After all, we are the ones who have been reminding all the rest that insurgencies could not be wiped out by force, and the B-52s were ill-suited to chase the likes of Osama and Omar. I have no idea what chance Fazlullah and Muslim Khan have to escape the crosswire of the F-16s, but the military action does provide us with yet another chance to find out how the "COIN" (counterinsurgency) works.

William F. Owen
06-19-2009, 02:34 PM
Lt-Gen (r) Asad Durrani writes
Moaning and groaning over the root-causes of the insurgency again would be in vain. Root-causes are embedded in history that cannot be rolled back. Those who created the mujahideen rolled back a superpower, which became history. Their successors, the Taliban, are in the process of doing the same to its opposite number. We have to take care of their sidekick, the "Pakistani Taliban".

Now that we have decided to fight this war, we should not make any excuses. That 'our army is not trained for an unconventional war', is a pretty lame one. All armies are trained in conventional warfare and then adapt to the task at hand. No one trains for COIN and then awaits an insurgency.

The above paragraphs contains a heck of a lot more insight than I think I can reasonably discern with just one reading. It's an intriguing observation.

Steve Blair
06-19-2009, 02:41 PM
And how well they adapt remains the big question, along with how well they preserve the information and skills they need to adapt. That to me remains the most intriguing problem set.

Bob's World
06-19-2009, 02:46 PM
He sounds like an excellent conventional officer.

If given free reign to execute this within the paradigm he describes, the actions of the Pak army would do far more than the actions of the Taliban to destroy his country. Like all armies, they need to focus on the insurgent, not the insurgency. But only if the Civil leadership understands the difference and has divided the civil and military tasks accordingly. Only if the Civil leadership is focused on the insurgency itself in a wholistic approach.

Sadly they usually just hand it off to the military that then goes out and executes its one thin aspect of the operation as if it were the entire operation, which has never produced a positive, enduring result.


I just read a great article that was pushed to me in an intel summary. "Why the Taliban Won’t Take Over Pakistan (http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0607/p06s07-wosc.html),” by Ben Arnoldy from the 7 June Christian Science Monitor. I tried to google it and it wouldn't come up, so can't confirm the cite. Worth a read for an alternative to the "Pakistan is failing" drum that gets beaten so loudly of late.

Entropy
06-19-2009, 03:25 PM
One point I've made several times about the Pakistani tribal areas are that they more resemble colonies than parts of a whole "Pakistani" state. Pakistan sure treats them more like colonial possessions. If this view is correct, does it make any difference in terms of insurgency and COIN?

William F. Owen
06-19-2009, 03:40 PM
If given free reign to execute this within the paradigm he describes, the actions of the Pak army would do far more than the actions of the Taliban to destroy his country. Like all armies, they need to focus on the insurgent, not the insurgency.

Again this assumes that the Pakistani Taliban (very different from the A'Stan) enjoy popular support. What if they do not? Even if they do, it's not an excuse not to subject them to military power. No Insurgents. No Insurgency. It is that simple.

OK, some folks may have a legitimate grievance. So what? Use legitimate forms of expression. Use violence and you can expect violence in return. That dynamic applies to ALL ARMED conflict.

Bob, tell me. How would you address the FARC's grievances in Colombia, or the RUF's in Sierra Leone, or the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda?

Ken White
06-19-2009, 03:51 PM
or similar environment. I've also known SF officers who did not do well in a COIN or similar environment. Good and bad people abound in all walks of life. Amazingly, some who don't 100% agree with me on many things or accept the gospel according to Saint Ken seem to be able to do good work and achieve great results. :eek:

I still cannot believe that it doesn't have to be done my way to work... ;)

That said, Durrani's article makes sense to me and reflects his realistic understanding of a governmental milieu that is not too swift -- and of the willingness of Armies (ANY bureaucratic organization) to sluff hard jobs and make excuses...

Lot of that going around. :rolleyes:

He's the LINK (http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0607/p06s07-wosc.html) to the CSM Article "Why the Taliban Won’t Take Over Pakistan." Agree with you that it is a good and accurate article. I also think it effectively supports the Durrani Op-ed... :D

Bob's World
06-19-2009, 04:16 PM
One point I've made several times about the Pakistani tribal areas are that they more resemble colonies than parts of a whole "Pakistani" state. Pakistan sure treats them more like colonial possessions. If this view is correct, does it make any difference in terms of insurgency and COIN?

Absoulutely. It goes to both of the key elements of COIN: Goodness and Legitimacy.

If the populace does not view themselves primarily as "Pakistani," but rather as "Pashto" or some other tribal affiliation, then they will not grant/recognize the legitimacy of the Pakistani government over their tribal governments, more as a supplementary overlay rather than a primary ruling role. This affects very much both what they expect from the government and how they will react to engagement by the government.

This leads neatly into the concept of "goodness." Different expectations will absolutely color what a popualce perceives as acceptable governance or not. A COIN campaign waged in the Indus valley would be very different in nature and approach than one waged in the mountains. Different populaces and different perspectives and expectations of governance.


As to WILF's comments, I would simply say that you appear to be taking my comments as "absolutes." While I do believe that there are some fairly absolute truths rooted in general human nature that shape all insurgencies, application is alway a matter of degree tailored for the situation, culture and populace one faces. It appears quite clear that the majority of the Pashto populace does not desire Taliban rule and wants very much for that problem to go away. But I suspect they also are very suspect of how the Pakistani government is going to apply that help. If applied too heavy-handedly, it can have the negative effect of expanding the popular support for the Taliban among the Pashto. If done right, in a supporting effort to the tribal leaders in a manner sensitive to the culture of the region, it can be very effective.

I just don't see a history of cultural sensitivity here, so my concern is that out of our fear of failed states and loose nukes we may push the Paks to launch a campaign that is all thrust and no vector.

As to Ken's comments, I never said conventional guys can't do COIN, I said he was expressing a very conventional approach. To me at least, the difference is considerable.

William F. Owen
06-19-2009, 05:30 PM
As to WILF's comments, I would simply say that you appear to be taking my comments as "absolutes."
Not my intention. Apologies if it came off that way.



If applied too heavy-handedly, it can have the negative effect of expanding the popular support for the Taliban among the Pashto. If done right, in a supporting effort to the tribal leaders in a manner sensitive to the culture of the region, it can be very effective.
Agreed, and just so as we are quite clear Mr President, when you say "go away" you mean "kill." :D

Ken White
06-19-2009, 05:33 PM
...As to WILF's comments, I would simply say that you appear to be taking my comments as "absolutes."Wilf is not alone, many of your comments seem to be absolutes which when and if questioned, are modified. :wry:

It's sort of like throwing a Grenade in the room. If it kills all the bad guys, good enough. If it does not, then you adjust. Nothing wrong with that, it's a technique that adapts well to boards like this. Many of us do that and make no bones about it, mostly because everyone can figure it out as well as we can... :D

That, however, can lead to 'misunderstandings' like this:As to Ken's comments, I never said conventional guys can't do COIN, I said he was expressing a very conventional approach...Actually, what you said was:
"He sounds like an excellent conventional officer.Which is an innocuous comment on the surface but coming from one who takes great pride in his branch and who has routinely derided the 'conventional' approach can come across as an insulting comment. At least to me and I'm sure not the target of the comment, I just read it on a discussion board...

When you follow that with this:
"If given free reign to execute this within the paradigm he describes, the actions of the Pak army would do far more than the actions of the Taliban to destroy his country. Like all armies, they need to focus on the insurgent, not the insurgency. But only if the Civil leadership understands the difference and has divided the civil and military tasks accordingly. Only if the Civil leadership is focused on the insurgency itself in a wholistic approach.Which is certainly a valid opinion but something of an absolute and not really all that much at odds with what Durrani wrote, it makes the initial comment at least suspect if not a bit more of a derisory comment...
To me at least, the difference is considerable.To others, perhaps not so much.

Conventional and unconventional are neat, facile and really sort of silly and much overused buzzwords; using them implies that only the properly anointed (or funded and manned) can do one or the other.

The hard truth is that the decently trained can do both with equal facility.

Surferbeetle
06-19-2009, 09:19 PM
...this one in particular:


Conventional and unconventional are neat, facile and really sort of silly and much overused buzzwords; using them implies that only the properly anointed (or funded and manned) can do one or the other.

The hard truth is that the decently trained can do both with equal facility.

Tom Rick's Blog The Best Defense (http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/19/gates_goes_hybrid) got me started on looking for (a link would have been appreciated, but it's a great blog just the same) Mr. Gates' comments on hybrid warfare at his 18 June Press Conference (http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4435):


Q Mr. Secretary, the department is engaged in the Quadrennial Defense Review, department-wide review of strategy, weapons systems. And I take it from your public comments in recent months that the framework is that the U.S. should be focusing, at least right now, on the current conflicts it's engaged in, conflicts of the irregular type that could last into the foreseeable future.

There are officers in the military who at least privately express some reservations that large numbers of conventional forces for an open-ended commitment in a place like Afghanistan or -- perhaps less so -- Iraq is the way the United States should be looking at the world in terms of its defenses.

If you do this review, will that construct itself be under review? In other words, will you analyze whether or not this type of operation is what the U.S. should be focusing on for the next decade?

SEC. GATES: Those who believe that is what we are trying to do, and that that's what I believe, do not understand what we are trying to do or what I believe.

The reality is, the vast preponderance of the Defense Department procurement budget will still be for large systems used and sophisticated systems useable against near peers and that will continue to give us a technological edge for the next 20 to 25 years.

What I am trying to do is simply get a place at the table, when resources are passed out, for those who are fighting today's wars, and to institutionalize what we've learned about counterinsurgency, so that we don't forget it like we did after Vietnam.

So this notion that I'm tilting the scale dramatically against conventional capabilities, in order to fight irregular or whatever, asymmetric wars or whatever you want to call it, is just not accurate.

You know, $1 trillion for the Joint Strike Fighter, a fifth generation fighter that has some capabilities the F-22 does not, is not a trivial investment in the future. Neither is -- I have hardly read about the fact that we're initiating the replacements for the Ohio-class SSBN with this budget.

So the notion that we are not taking seriously the range of potential future conflicts, I think, frankly is just a misunderstanding of what we're trying to do. It derives from my view that the old way, of looking at irregular warfare as being one kind of conflict and conventional warfare as a discreet kind of warfare, is an outdated concept.

And my belief, that conflict in the future will slide up and down a scale, both in scope or scale and in lethality. And we have to procure the kinds of things that give us -- the kinds of equipment and weapons that give us the maximum flexibility, across the widest range of that spectrum of conflict.

Every Marine is a rifleman is a really great one: we need to come up with something similar which encompasses our ability to cover down on hybrid warfare ;)

In order to facilitate everyone's Friday night thinking about how to define conventional/unconventional solutions I submit this this 235 pager from NDU which is linked to from SWJ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/02/civilian-surge-key-to-complex/):


Chapter 1 concludes that complex operations encompass 6 broad categories of missions, with 60 associated tasks, 48 of which in 5 categories are probably best performed by civilians. This chapter finds that 5,000 deployable, active-duty government civilians and 10,000 civilian reserves would be needed to perform these 48 tasks on a sustained basis in one large, one medium, and four small contingencies. In today’s global security environment, structuring civilian and military capabilities to meet this 1–1–4 standard is prudent. This requirement substantially exceeds current executive branch planning assumptions, which call for 2,250 active-duty civilians and 2,000 civilian reservists.

Bob's World
06-20-2009, 01:06 PM
Surferbeetle,


Who can ever top the simple genius of "every Marine a rifleman" that lies at the core of that great organization? Not a slogan, but a commitment to a clear and simple priority.

Today in SOF a phrase rolling around is "3-D Warrior." Different organization, different mission, different ethos, and thus different priorities. The 3 D's talks to the three aspects of engagement: Defense, Diplomacy and Development; Warrior talks to the essence of the SOF operator that is out there working in varying degrees in all three of those 3-D aspects. (Ken is firing up his reply now to take on the choice of the word "warrior" and make that case that a good soldier beats a good warrior - though history has certainly shown that too firm of a belief in that can get you massacred, be it on the plains of North America or Africa...). As a joint command of Soldiers, Marines, Sailors and Airmen a generic "3-D Serviceperson" just lacked pizzazz, so "warrior" it is.

More importantly we also attempt to make the case that none of us, be one from State, Aid, or the Military, can simply say "I just do development" or "I just do defense" or "I just do diplomacy." The primary message of the concept is that in these complex, populace-based conflicts we all must work together, and clear delineations are not helpful.


Beyond that though, my larger concern is that we as we have arguably become overly engaged with military presence that we look to becoming equally overly engaged with civilian presence to create balance. My theory is that this is because as Americans, where we have Democratic and relatively effective government, and little popular conflict; we draw the flawed conclusion that the creation of democracy and effective government elsewhere will resolve populace-based conflicts there.

My theory is that we lack these conflicts because we have self-determination of governance and "goodness" of governance. That because Americans believe with certainty that no matter how dissatisfied they may be with their government, that they have the legitimate means to change it.

I believe that the much smaller mission set of enabling self-determination and goodness of governance is far more likely to produce the results we desire than the far more labor intensive and difficult mission of forcing democracy and creating "effectiveness" (by our terms) in places that may well have little need or desire for either one...

John T. Fishel
06-20-2009, 02:08 PM
have been around a long time now. We used them in SOUTHCOM in the 80s along with the fourth D - democracy. I would not get rid of that D but i recognize that it has a number of problems and is a difficult "sell" in many places in the world. Moreover, it is often defined only free elections without all the other governance elements that make for effective democracy. So, while democracy right now might well be a bridge too far, it should remain an explicit goal to be achieved by focusing in intermediate governance objectives.

Cheers

JohnT

Bob's World
06-20-2009, 02:29 PM
Someone way smarter than me once said:

"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun."

-Ecclesiastes 1:9

If we could just stay current on all of the smart stuff that has been figured out over the years, and avoid all the well-traveled pitfalls! This is one that is coming around again. At the end of the day its just a snappy slogan, but hopefully it helps us rebalance a governmental approach that has trended far too heavily toward the military of late.

But then I guess we wouldn't be human if we always did the right or smart thing. As to the 4th D, I wish that is one band wagon we would have never gotten on. Democracy is a great form of government, but it is patently un-American to promote ANY single form of government. Self-determination leads to all kinds of messes, but it beats any situation that someone elses forces upon you.

"Self-determination is defined as free choice of one’s own acts without external compulsion; and especially as the freedom of the people of a given territory to determine their own political status or independence from their current state. In other words, it is the right of the people of a certain nation to decide how they want to be governed without the influence of any other country."

What could be more American than standing up for the right of people everywhere to enjoy what we demanded for ourselves?

John T. Fishel
06-20-2009, 03:57 PM
How American is it to promote self-determination when the self-determining group is determined to impose its will on everybody in the country it disagrees with (the Bolsheviks, Nazis, Ayatollahs, Hamas, and Hugo Chavez)? How American was it to wash our hands of responsibility when the Shi'a and Kurds took Pres G. H. W. Bush's advice and tried to overthrow Saddam in 1991?

There are any number of reasons to promote democracy. Many are normative but this one is purely empirical: Since 1945 no democracy (meaning a state that regularly changes government by free, competitive elections, has effective freedom of expression and organization, has an independent mechanism for the settlement of disputes) has gone to war with another democracy that meets the same criteria. Hence, the more such democracies there are in the world, the more peaceful the world is likely to be. Democratic Peace Theory (DPT) has not been falsified although it would be easy to do so. As such, it stands up as well as does the Theory of Evolution or the Big Bang, although it is obviously much narrower in scope. Still, it provides a powerful argument for a foreign policy that promotes effective democracy.

In the end, democracy promotion is a policy that has its roots deep in Western philosophy. the origins of DPT are found in Immanuel Kant's theory of Perpetual Peace and were an essential part of American foreign policy under Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK, Ronald Reagan, among others. My problem with democracy promotion is when it is seen too narrowly as elections or we try to promote it only from the top down without taking into account local cultural conditions (such as the role of tribes). My disagreements are not with the goals of such a policy but with the way it has often been implemented.

Cheers

JohnT

Surferbeetle
06-20-2009, 08:42 PM
Bob’s World & John T. Fishel,

I am sitting back today listening to some Cam Penner (Downtown, Rye Whiskey, Gravel Truck, and more) and thinking about that which we all so love, soldiering. So what is it that we are striving for and what is it that keeps pulling us into this line of work? There are much easier ways to make a living. We could be feral fat cat bankers content with enjoying the material things in life :)

When I examine our two phrases of choice, Every Marine a Rifleman and 3-D Warrior/4-D Warrior a couple of things stand out for me:



The US military is a system that often values generalists over specialists and yet we are all aware of the importance of the role of specialists. Generalists are by definition more versatile in daily application and utilization and yet, specialists can produce truly amazing results in their field of expertise.




It’s my opinion that Americans are, at their heart, restless people. Our immigrant roots have helped to concentrate and intermingle a group of folks who are always looking for something better. Our abundant natural and human resources allow us to act upon these impulses.


When using the concept of phasing for warfare (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/mtw-phases.htm) where are we today in Iraq and in Afghanistan? Phase will certainly vary by AO we zoom in at the micro level, but can we generalize at the macro level (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerrilla_warfare#Classic_guidelines)? Perhaps the reason we are starting to see more of a push for civilian specialists is that we again are trending towards a point where Phase IV types of operations (http://usacac.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/MayJun05/MayJun05/crane.pdf) can find traction. Perhaps Liddel Hart’s ideas on counterinsurgency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_insurgency#Strategy_by_Liddell_Hart) are gaining additional traction over CvC. Whatever the reasons the pendulum does appear to be swinging from conventional to population based warfare, so perhaps its time to hop on the wave and see where it takes us.

Democracy and Capitalism are amazing western concepts however, as you two probably know better than I, the world is much larger than just the golden bubble that encompasses the West. I think about a couple of points on this topic:



Man’s Law, as defined by Democracy, does not have primacy over God’s Law, as defined by Islam, in the Middle East. I like to think about the current equilibrium in the nation of Turkey versus the current equilibrium in Yemen or Saudi Arabia when I construct my mental continuum of what Democracy looks like in the Middle East. I’ll state the obvious, Jeffersonian Democracy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffersonian_democracy) it’s not nor will it be in my lifetime.




Capitalism, defined as the American variety (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Capitalism), is considered as trending towards chaotic & heartless in much of Europe and is all but discredited in parts of Latin America. The current financial crisis has provided us no favors in this regard and indeed the fruits of this particular harvest will be bitter if we are not very careful. Nonetheless China’s embrace of its own form of Capitalism, and Dubai’s free-wheeling business ways (http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13687129&CFID=62251651&CFTOKEN=28260195) give me hope for the ‘youth-bulge (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youth_Bulge#Youth_bulge)’ areas of the world when it comes to the benefits Capitalism.


For me then, John’s comments on implementation are on target. Implementation of Democracy and Capitalism, at the dirty boots level, fails when we try and force things through using an incompatible methodology and in an artificially short timeline. People the world over are looking for beneficial partnerships as opposed to highhanded lectures about why America is so great and Country X just needs to get with the program. What was that refrain sometimes said to Cadets? ‘5 for initiative and 0 for judgment…try again’. I for one am happy that we are taking the time to replot the map & adjust our azimuth, and it's my sense of things that we will benefit from doing so.

Regards,

Steve

John T. Fishel
06-20-2009, 09:43 PM
You've just said it all:D Bob, how about we buy Steve a beer?

Cheers

JohnT

Ken White
06-21-2009, 12:40 AM
(Ken is firing up his reply now to take on the choice of the word "warrior" and make that case that a good soldier beats a good warrior - though history has certainly shown that too firm of a belief in that can get you massacred, be it on the plains of North America or Africa...).the key is 'good.' The less good -- and there are a number of them about with a few years service -- are no better than the other amateurs and die off rapidly. Belief has little to do with it; competence has a lot to do with it... :D

However, the motto is not a prob to me, 'Warrior' does indeed work well in your slogan -- and as John said, the multiple Ds were popular in the 80s and in the 60s. ;)

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised at you innovative fighters being sort of pedestrian in your choice of a slogan. No insult and no snark intended, really. However, as in recent times, it was said a short while ago:
"...Meeting those 21st-century challenges will not occur through military power or any other means alone, but will require the full integration of defense, diplomacy, development assistance, democracy promotion efforts, free trade and the work of the private sector and society...LINK (http://www.america.gov/st/peacesec-english/2008/February/20080229090801dmslahrellek0.6595575.html)I know you don't like that last add-on but it was tagged in there. Same thing, almost, was said even earlier LINK (http://mail.kein.org/pipermail/incom-l/2006-April/001290.html). Not like you guys to opt for the flavor of the day...

However, it's most recent use will put you in good with Madam Secretary LINK (http://blogs.state.gov/index.php/entries/defense_diplomacy_development/) and in synch with current thinking all the way around. I guess that's always good for the Command. ;)

Personally, I like this one better: LINK (http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/) -- but then, I'm old and crotchety and there's not a lot of new age stuff that appeals to me... :D

Bob's World
06-21-2009, 01:06 AM
Always liked "Quiet Professionals" myself as well.

De Oppresso Liber,

Bob

Surferbeetle
06-21-2009, 03:44 AM
From Zenpundit's (http://zenpundit.com/?p=3134) blog: The Management of Savagery (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/images/Management%20of%20Savagery%20-%2005-23-2006.pdf)

Bob's World
06-21-2009, 02:40 PM
How American is it to promote self-determination when the self-determining group is determined to impose its will on everybody in the country it disagrees with (the Bolsheviks, Nazis, Ayatollahs, Hamas, and Hugo Chavez)? How American was it to wash our hands of responsibility when the Shi'a and Kurds took Pres G. H. W. Bush's advice and tried to overthrow Saddam in 1991?

There are any number of reasons to promote democracy. Many are normative but this one is purely empirical: Since 1945 no democracy (meaning a state that regularly changes government by free, competitive elections, has effective freedom of expression and organization, has an independent mechanism for the settlement of disputes) has gone to war with another democracy that meets the same criteria. Hence, the more such democracies there are in the world, the more peaceful the world is likely to be. Democratic Peace Theory (DPT) has not been falsified although it would be easy to do so. As such, it stands up as well as does the Theory of Evolution or the Big Bang, although it is obviously much narrower in scope. Still, it provides a powerful argument for a foreign policy that promotes effective democracy.

In the end, democracy promotion is a policy that has its roots deep in Western philosophy. the origins of DPT are found in Immanuel Kant's theory of Perpetual Peace and were an essential part of American foreign policy under Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK, Ronald Reagan, among others. My problem with democracy promotion is when it is seen too narrowly as elections or we try to promote it only from the top down without taking into account local cultural conditions (such as the role of tribes). My disagreements are not with the goals of such a policy but with the way it has often been implemented.

Cheers

JohnT

While sweating my way around the neighborhood on a run this morning (Florida in summer, sun wasn't even fully up and it was like exercising in a sauna...), and I thought about this conversation, Verbs, and "shades of meaning."

John makes the case that "promotion" of democracy is a noble and worthy endeavor. I can't argue with that.

What I wrote was that I felt it was more appropriate that we should "enable self-determination."

Enable is the key word. John gives great examples of where we have fallen short of enabling self-determination with disasterous effects. Where we have perhaps merely "encouraged" or "enticed" populaces to seek such change, and left them to suffer the wrath of a government that had no desire to listen to such rumbling of dissent from its populace.

More recently we have gone past "enable" to the other extreme, to actually "enforce" , not just self-determination, but an actual form of government in democracy. I find this uncomfortably similar to oppressive behavior in the Soviets that I was raised to guard against. Not to be against communism itself, but to be against the forced adoption of communism by a more powerful state over a weaker one.

So as I look across a span of verbs, with shades of meaning:

"Encourage" - "Entice" - "Enable" - "Enforce"

Each brings very different duties, responsibilities and consequences. When we go too weak or too storng it often does not play well. This is why, for me, I am most comfortable with the middle of this scale. To Enable Self-Determination. To work with governments and populaces alike, as much more a mediator of evolution of good governance as opposed to be a promoter or enforcer of revolution of government.

Today we watch events unfold in Iran, a country we currently find ourself at odds with, but one that arguably holds the potential to be our strongest ally in the Middle East. We must neither entice this populace to act and then leave them without the support we enticed them with, nor should we storm in and assume legitimacy over the situation by enforcing a change on our terms. Both are disasterous.

But where in the middle do we make our position? How do we enable a peaceful evolution of government, that respects the current sovereign, while at the same time supports a populace hungry for change. Difficult business, this. Complicated even more by two powerful current allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia who have very strong interests of their own that may well be different than ours, and are certainly different than those of either the government or populace of Iran.

I think the President's instincts on this are the correct ones, but I don't envy him the task that this challenge presents.

William F. Owen
06-21-2009, 03:31 PM
While sweating my way around the neighborhood on a run this morning (Florida in summer, sun wasn't even fully up and it was like exercising in a sauna...), and I thought about this conversation, Verbs, and "shades of meaning."
Tell me about. Wife gets up at 05:30, to go running in the dunes, cos Israel ain't exactly chilly this time of year!


John makes the case that "promotion" of democracy is a noble and worthy endeavor. I can't argue with that.

What I wrote was that I felt it was more appropriate that we should "enable self-determination."
That is entirely laudable and well intended. I cannot tell you you are wrong, but isn't the reality to "enable the outcome the President wants?"

Surferbeetle
06-21-2009, 05:25 PM
Bob’s World,

Appreciate your posts.

As you are well aware, it’s one thing to drop in out of the sky and hunt down HVT’s and it’s another thing entirely to drop in out of the sky and assist with the development and maintenance of self-sustaining enterprises, which incrementally increase a populaces opportunities in a culturally effective way and help to integrate us all in beneficial network (i.e. globailization). As you previously posted 3-D warriors are needed for this type of work. Many of us are able to shift gears when the threat is on and soldier/Defense, but as an organization we in DOD exhibit systemic and reoccurring problems in shifting seamlessly from Defense to Development & Diplomacy.

This fathers day I am wondering:

1) Do we have the moral right to try and effect enduring and beneficial change in countries other than our own given the many unsolved problems/challenges we have here at home?
2) Do we have the ability to effect enduring and beneficial change in countries other than our own given the many unsolved problems/challenges we have here at home?

Let’s examine your example of Iran/Persia. Wikipedia tells me they have been building, fighting, and living as group since at least 2800 BC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran).

Now, I have spent an hour or two studying various engineering and mathematics topics, while being aware of the fact that various Persian engineers/scientists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Iran) who were armed with a blank sheet of paper and quill & ink identified and solved some of these same problem sets well before my nation was a twinkle in any of my ancestors eyes.

As a well traveled CA-bubba I am also aware that the names of politicians are written for all eternity upon the sands of the various windy deserts and beaches across the globe.

The people, however, the people endure.

So then, specifically with respect to Iran is the correct approach to follow the direct path to reducing the perceived threat or to follow the indirect path to reducing the perceived threat? The answer to this depends upon if one believes in a top down (political) or a bottom up (populace) approach.

Best,

Steve

jmm99
06-21-2009, 06:34 PM
the Management of Savagery (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/images/Management%20of%20Savagery%20-%2005-23-2006.pdf), a couple of months ago - and found it a very interesting read.

Partly, I suppose, because it is heavily law-laden (Islamic law as seen by its author) in the context of irregular warfare and irregular combatants - who are not at all irregular combatants in Naji's eyes, but regular Islamic warriors.

However, its most interesting concept, reflected in the title (which might be better expressed in our terms as the "Management of Chaos", which Naji says at p.26 quoted below), defined as:


(pp.11, 26-28)

The management of savagery is the next stage that the Umma will pass through and it is considered the most critical stage. If we succeed in the management of this savagery, that stage (by the permission of God) will be a bridge to the Islamic state which has been awaited since the fall of the caliphate. If we fail – we seek refuge with God from that – it does not mean end of the matter; rather, this failure will lead to an increase in savagery!!

This increase in savagery, which may result from failure, is not the worst thing that can happen now or in the previous decade (the nineties) and those before it. Rather, the most abominable of the levels of savagery is (still) less than stability under the order of unbelief [nizām al-kufr] by (several) degrees.
....
First Topic: Definition of “the management of savagery” and an overview of its historical precedents

We said above that if one contemplates the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires fell – whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being which was equal in power or comparable to the previous state in its ability to control the lands and regions of that state which collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state became, according to human nature, subservient to what is called “administrations of savagery.” Therefore, the management of savagery is defined very succinctly as the management of savage chaos!!

As for a detailed definition, it differs according to the goals and nature of the individuals in the administration. If we picture its initial form, we find that it consists of the management of peoples’ needs with regard to the provision of food and medical treatment, preservation of security and justice among the people who live in the regions of savagery, securing the boarders by means of groups that deter anyone who tries to assault the regions of savagery, as well as setting up defensive fortifications.

(The stage of) managing the people’s needs with regard to food and medical treatment may advance to (the stage of) being responsible for offering services like education and so forth. And the preservation of security and securing the borders may advance to working to expand of the region of savagery.

Why do we call it “management of savagery” or “management of savage chaos” and not “management of chaos”? That is because it is not the management of a commercial company, or of an institution suffering from chaos, or of a group of neighbors in a district or residential region, or even of a peaceful society suffering from chaos. Rather, it is more nebulous than chaos, in view of its corresponding historical precedents and the modern world and in light of wealth, greed, various forces, and human nature, and its form which we will discuss in this study. Before its submission to the administration, the region of savagery will be in a situation resembling the situation of Afghanistan before the control of the Taliban, a region submitting to the law of the jungle in its primitive form, whose good people and even the wise among the evildoers yearn for someone to manage this savagery. They even accept any organization, regardless of whether it is made up of good or evil people. However, if the evil people manage this savagery, it is possible that this region will become even more barbarous!

The ideal form we desire (in order to meet the) requirements of the management of savagery:

- In the preceding, we generally explained the requirements of the management of savagery in its initial form. But before we proceed to another point, we want to clarify the requirements of the management of savagery in the ideal form we desire and which agree with the aims of the Sharia [maqāsid al-shar`, a technical legal term]. These requirements are:

- Spreading internal security

- Providing food and medical treatment

- Securing the region of savagery from the invasions of enemies

- Establishing Sharia justice among the people who live in the regions of savagery

- Raising the level of belief and combat efficiency during the training of the youth of the region of savagery and establishing a fighting society at all levels and among all individuals by making them aware of its importance.

- Working for the spread of Sharia science (putting the most important aspects before those of lesser importance) and worldly science (putting the most important aspects before those of lesser importance).

- Dissemination of spies and seeking to complete the construction of a minimal intelligence agency.

- Uniting the hearts of the world's people by means of money and uniting the world through Sharia governance and (compliance with) rules which are publicly observed, at least by those in the administration.

- Deterring the hypocrites with proof and other means and forcing them to repress and conceal their hypocrisy, to hide their discouraged opinions, and to comply with those in authority until their evil is put in check.

- Progressing until it is possible to expand and attack the enemies in order to repel them, plunder their money, and place them in a constant state of apprehension and (make them) desire reconciliation.

- Establishing coalitions with those with whom coalitions are permitted, those who have not given complete allegiance to the administration.

I've quoted at some length to get down to the bullet points of Naji's doctrine, which seems very population-centric; although as one reads through the book, one finds more than one suggestion for direct action.

My perception is that this particular AQ type is very willing to work amidst chaos - although the desired end-state is something quite different. On the other hand, we seem not to like chaos very much and try to effect order.

Two questions for comment:


1. Has anyone on our side considered how we should be operating in a chaotic situation - that is, not by trying to create order; but by working to our advantage within the chaos itself ?

2. Has Naji's book affected our military education; do folks read and discuss it ?

Any input on what I perceive to be an important book would be appreciated.

Entropy
06-21-2009, 11:17 PM
BW,

While I agree with you in the abstract, I think the practicalities are much more problematic.

To begin with, "enabling self-determination" is, in large part, an oxymoron because the will and ability to determine one's own course comes from within - hence the "self" part. A population that must be encouraged or enticed by outsiders is a population not ready for self-determination and not ready to bear its costs.

Secondly, "self determination" in practice often impinges on another's notion of "self determination." Realizing dreams of self-determination for one usually comes at the expense of another's dreams. Add in an outsider, acting as an "enabler" or whatever, and the pot becomes even less tasty. Outsiders inevitably have agendas which are rarely in complete agreement with those they're trying to enable. Such enabling, I believe, does not improve outcomes in the end.

Some examples to explain my point:

1. The US Civil War. Did the southern states have a right to self-determination? What about African Americans? The desire for self-determination often conflicts with other desires and/or values.

2. Kosovo. Here is a case where the US enabled one group of people to realize their dreams for self-determination. Unfortunately, it came at the expense of others and likely set the stage for future conflict in a region where memories are long.

3. Israel. The US, UN and others enabled the Jewish people's wish for a state in their biblical homeland, triggering decades of conflict that continues today. The simple reality, in my view, is that Arab and Jewish desires for self-determination are incompatible and both sides are unwilling to compromise on those desires. This is the root of our failed attempts to encourage, entice and enable compromise between the two parties.

4. USA. Many people who moved from Europe to the USA through the 19th century did so for self-deterministic reasons. Unfortunately, accommodating them resulted in the almost complete loss of self-determination for the native people already living here.

5. Afghanistan and much of central, south and SW Asia and Africa. Self-determination is incompatible with the artificial colonial construct we call "Afghanistan." There are many who want to live their lives free of the influence from outsiders - defined as anyone not from one's clan, tribe or valley. Yet we are in those valleys trying to convince them otherwise, using your entire span of verbs. We are not enabling self-determination here, we are attempting to convince those people to, at a minimum, sublimate their desire for independence and compromise their desires for self-determination. Some can be enticed to do so, others cannot.

Bob's World
06-22-2009, 01:15 AM
So, there will always be winners and losers; strong and weak; etc?

I see no reason to compromise the idealistic principles upon which America was founded simply becuase the world is a dirty, complicated place where nothing plays out as neat and clean as it reads from the parchment that Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Ben Franklin wrote it on.

Its like why I alway encourage others as well as myself to strive for the maximum standards. When one strives for the max and comes up short they still succeed by a considerable margin. When one strives for the minimum standard and comes up short they fail.

We set the bar high as a nation, and to not strive to achieve that mark, or worse, to deliberately adopt polices contrary to those ideals is high hypocracy. No one expects us to be perfect, just to do our best and say what we mean, and mean what we say.

Entropy
06-22-2009, 02:24 AM
So, there will always be winners and losers; strong and weak; etc?

Yes, but that wasn't my point exactly.


I see no reason to compromise the idealistic principles upon which America was founded simply becuase the world is a dirty, complicated place where nothing plays out as neat and clean as it reads from the parchment that Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Ben Franklin wrote it on.

While attempting to promote or base decisions/policy upon idealistic principles is a good thing, one must also realize there are always going to be compromises. Different principles are going to be in competition, so some kind of compromise is inevitable. How far are you willing to go to maximize "ideals" over other values?

Also, as I tried to point out, some times the same principle cannot be evenly applied at every level - "Self determination" in a place like Afghanistan means different things based on the context, like clan, ethnic group, gender, religion or "nation." Is it possible, for example, to promote all five equally? I don't think so. Promote the independence of tribal leadership, for example, and women's self-determination may be compromised as well as independence of the state as a whole.


Its like why I alway encourage others as well as myself to strive for the maximum standards. When one strives for the max and comes up short they still succeed by a considerable margin. When one strives for the minimum standard and comes up short they fail.

It's not so much about standards as it is about priorities. One can't maximize everything all the time.


We set the bar high as a nation, and to not strive to achieve that mark, or worse, to deliberately adopt polices contrary to those ideals is high hypocracy. No one expects us to be perfect, just to do our best and say what we mean, and mean what we say.

I mostly agree, but I think a bigger problem is that our policymakers too often believe they can have their cake and eat it too. Plus, a "feature" of our democracy and election cycle is that policymakers focus almost exclusively on what can be done in the next couple of years. And there's the simple reality that they are reflective of the character of the American people who are more concerned about events at home than promoting ideals abroad. I think for the most part we're getting the foreign policy the American people want.

Finally, too much focus on idealism leads to mirror-imaging, poor analysis, wishful thinking and paternalism. Our last President found that out the hard way. A certain group of prominent Washington thinkers operated (and probably still do) under the assumption that inside every person is a little Thomas Jefferson itching to get out. Exposing the hidden TJ could be accomplished simply by eliminating the undesirable regime oppressing them. That theory hasn't worked too well.

So what we need, IMO, is a balance of idealism and realism, which is pretty much what we have most of the time. That balance means that we're going to have hypocrisy, but IMO that is a part of human nature. My main complaint about US foreign policy is the perpetual short-term focus.

Bob's World
06-22-2009, 12:35 PM
Short-term focus is indeed a problem for most people in general, perhaps Americans in particular (I once read of America described as a nation of attention deficeit disorder, based on the general genetic inclinations of the type of people from around the world who tended to migrate here); and certainly for U.S. policy.

All the more reason, if we are unable or unwilling to craft a Grand Strategy that sees into the future, let us at least stand firmly upon the solid foundation of our past.

Democracy is a funny thing.

"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."
Sir Winston Churchill, Hansard, November 11, 1947

We often tend to overlook the dark side. For example, Indians are justifiably proud to proclaim that they have the "Largest Democracy in the World!" The flip side of that being, with their caste system, and racial and religon-based bigotry that they have the worlds largest suppressed minority as well.

As to values, I caution any person or any state to hold his values up to others as a measure of goodness. Values are a personal thing, and vary with time and experience. A value is a principle that has had a judgment applied to it. To promote values is to offer judgment of others, and that is rarely, if ever, well received regardless of the intention of the one offering judgment.

Better that we hold and attempt to live up to our own values, that we stand on our principles and that by so doing, we withhold judgment of others who chose to live or govern differently than we do.

Also, in the promotion of Self-Determination, we need to remember that this is not something that we must force others to do, rather it is a standard that we are to hold ourselves to. We must stand for this principle, and not act in such a way to impose a form of government on others unless deemed necessary for the survival of the Union. How others chose to act is up to them, until such time that in the pursuit of their interests they impose upon ours (and vice versa as well...).

I am all for realism. But show me a realist who is not an idealist first, and I will show you a man to be extremely wary of indeed, for he is likely driven primarily by his own self interest over any moral code.

slapout9
06-22-2009, 02:03 PM
Better that we hold and attempt to live up to our own values, that we stand on our principles and that by so doing, we withhold judgment of others who chose to live or govern differently than we do.

Also, in the promotion of Self-Determination, we need to remember that this is not something that we must force others to do, rather it is a standard that we are to hold ourselves to. We must stand for this principle, and not act in such a way to impose a form of government on others unless deemed necessary for the survival of the Union. How others chose to act is up to them, until such time that in the pursuit of their interests they impose upon ours (and vice versa as well...).




Exactly!

George L. Singleton
07-03-2009, 05:34 PM
http://asinstitute.org/newsletter103

In my view it is always helpful to read postings in the single (to my knowledge) conservative and open minded university based think tank in Pakistan, the Alternate Solutions Institute in Lahore, Pakistan.

Good reading to you all.

AnalyticType
07-03-2009, 08:29 PM
Before I even dive into this, I offer full disclosure: I am not mathematically inclined! So I'm putting this out there for analysis and commentary by others, rather than being a proponent of it myself.:wry:

While wandering through the treasure-trove of talks on TED (http://www.ted.com), I came across a fascinating talk (Feb 2009) by Kiwi physicist and mathematician Sean Gourley. He discusses the application of mathematics to insurgent attack trends. VERY intriguing patterns were revealed. (http://www.ted.com/talks/sean_gourley_on_the_mathematics_of_war.html)

So my questions to the COIN practitioners: How parallel are his conclusions to your experiences/studies? Have you utilized this sort of analysis to determine future trends already? Is this something entirely new (in your experience)? What are your thoughts?

;)

Surferbeetle
07-03-2009, 09:00 PM
So my questions to the COIN practitioners: How parallel are his conclusions to your experiences/studies? Have you utilized this sort of analysis to determine future trends already? Is this something entirely new (in your experience)? What are your thoughts?

;)

Here is a thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7250) that has some thoughts...

AnalyticType
07-03-2009, 09:09 PM
Here is a thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7250) that has some thoughts...

I hadn't found that one yet. I should'a looked more... :o

slapout9
07-03-2009, 09:16 PM
Before I even dive into this, I offer full disclosure: I am not mathematically inclined! So I'm putting this out there for analysis and commentary by others, rather than being a proponent of it myself.:wry:

While wandering through the treasure-trove of talks on TED (http://www.ted.com), I came across a fascinating talk (Feb 2009) by Kiwi physicist and mathematician Sean Gourley. He discusses the application of mathematics to insurgent attack trends. VERY intriguing patterns were revealed. (http://www.ted.com/talks/sean_gourley_on_the_mathematics_of_war.html)

So my questions to the COIN practitioners: How parallel are his conclusions to your experiences/studies? Have you utilized this sort of analysis to determine future trends already? Is this something entirely new (in your experience)? What are your thoughts?

;)


John Robb at Global Guerrillas writes about this subject, may want to search some of his posts there, here is the link. http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/

Greyhawk
07-03-2009, 10:03 PM
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5545157

NPR interview with the translator, who was a Fellow at USMA CTC at the time (maybe still - dunno).

Which would make a "no" answer to the question "Has Naji's book affected our military education; do folks read and discuss it?" som'at ironic. I first saw it back in aught six - it's informed my thinking. (That and a dollar will still buy you a candy bar if you hurry.)

Got to appreciate the IO part - they've been highly effective at that. But I suspect most folks (none here) would be amazed (or dismissive) of any claim that they even had something approaching a "PR" wing.

Greyhawk
07-07-2009, 03:21 AM
- a background document by the same author here: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/pdf/Stealing%20Al-Qai%27da%27s%20Playbook%20--%20CTC.pdf

George L. Singleton
07-14-2009, 11:12 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/14/AR2009071400313.html?hpid=topnews

In the above WASHINGTON POST story of Tuesday, July 14, 2009, you read in part at the conclusion of the article that both increased police manpower protection and a one year stationing of Pak Army forces throughout Swat will "fend off" return attempts by the Taliban.

President Zardari originally said that the Pak Army would establish permament military bases in Swat, without which I for one think Swat is going to remain unstable regarding Taliban reinfiltration.

The police forces formerly in Swat simply were killed, defeated, fled, or changed sides. Simply adding more police now is a weak gesture, unless they are defined as entire units of frontier forces/para-military doing the job of the collapsed police forces formerly there.

All of Northern Pakistan has to be permanently subdued and manned by the Army, otherwise you have another on again, off again mess forever there.

It is unhelpful that some but clearly not all Pakhtuns continue to agitate for secession from both Pakistan and Afghanistan, which plays into the hands of the Taliban and al Qaida.

There is no sound geopolitical basis for Pakhtun secession but overseas Pakhtuns in colleges and universities, and high schools in Canada, the US, the UK, Europe, Australia and related countries "wish" for secession and separation, while on the ground in country Pakthuns are less absurdly adamant but strongly distrustful of the ISI, Pak Army, and all prior Governments of Paksitan, in particular.

Hard to rebuild infrastructure and restore economic conditions while literal terrorist guerilla fighting goes on, with these damn stupid on again off again gyrations by the Pak Government and military. By now the President of Pakistan should know better than to keep changing his statements, and the Chief of Staff of the Pak Army needs to turn to a new recruiting program to bring more Pakhtuns into the military, which is a source of jobs for the poorest Pakhtuns in all parts of Pakistan.

George L. Singleton
07-16-2009, 10:02 AM
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-madrassa-reforms-in-tatters-qs-03

Take a minute to read the entire DAWN article.

As is all to often found in many Pakistani media stories, this one has built in contraditions.

One the one hand "the madrassah curicculum reform" program, funded in the background by the US through the Pak government is or has failed.

On the other hand due to current success fighting the Taliban the same school program has had modest success, but may be gaining wider acceptance by the poor and moderate madrassah miiddle class students.

The one subject I am concerned about deals with computer science. As an acquired skill it cuts both ways, against the Taliban/AQ but also useful for and to the terrorists and al Qaida who still recruit from these madrassahs.

davidbfpo
07-16-2009, 10:23 AM
The cited article comes as no surprise, for a host of reasons; I'd be curious whether the US $ aid was paid over to Pakistan in view of the lack of success and so where is the money now?

I am aware that UK-funded madrassah reform packages have been announced and that UK-based, Pakistani groups have tried too.

Strikes me as an example of "top down" action, rather than assisting "bottom up" with matching funds (on varying ratios) and encouraging dialogue. The clamour for wider and better education in the developing world is well known, somehow I doubt if lessons learnt from that affected US & UK governemnt thinking.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
07-19-2009, 02:25 AM
The below partial quote is from today's date, July 18 GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE. Understand these statements are unconfirmed and could be sheer Taliban propaganda. Spreading false tales is common even in peacetime among Pakhtuns.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6466

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=76712#post76712


Saturday, July 18, 2009
FC officials deny report
(FC -= FRONTIER CORP, Pakistan Army)
By Delawar Jan

PESHAWAR: Taliban militants resurfaced in parts of the Buner district during the last several days, carrying out armed patrol on roads besides establishing a checkpoint in Pacha Killay, locals told The News on Friday.

The reports about the reappearance of the militants emanated from the district at a time when the people, displaced by the Taliban arrival and the subsequent military operation, are returning to their homes.

“My brother had gone back to his home after the start of the IDPs’ return, but the situation there was still precarious and the Taliban were active, which forced him to leave Buner again,” a resident of a village near Pir Baba said, requesting anonymity.

Locals said the militants had infested numerous parts of the Buner district. “The Taliban arrived in great numbers to Kalpani, which is a densely populated area, and Chagharzai. They terrified the people when they brazenly carried out armed patrol on a four-kilometre strip on the Kalpani-Chagharzai Road a couple of days back,” another resident of Buner, who also requested not to be identified, said.

He contended that during the operation, the Taliban militants had suffered meagre casualties and their numerical strength remained intact. The displaced people coming back, he apprehended, would not be safe there and they could migrate again. “They are moving back to the district, because they could not pass time in camps. They just want to be at their homes in this scorching heat and unfavourable conditions,” he argued.

The locals from Pacha Killay said the militants had established a checkpoint at a stream between Pacha Killay and Balo Khan a few days back, where they checked the people to single out government officials or their opponents.

Bob's World
07-19-2009, 02:29 AM
Physical terrain in such a competition is irrelevant. It is the Populace that must be gained and retained...

George L. Singleton
07-19-2009, 03:28 AM
With what I knew myself to be absurdly premature return of Displaced Persons we should have known this was a likely event.

The good news is I hear from individuals that IDP returnees are small in numbers. The masses of IDPs are not being encouraged officially to return for several more months, despite games the Taliban and al Qaida are now playing through the local media and world press.

Too many Pak and world media fools undermine our allies the Pak military and thus our total war efforts with their yellow journalist sensationalism to "create" radical news headlines.

WW II news media censorship would help Pakistan and NATO, too, on both sides of the Durand Line.

George L. Singleton
07-21-2009, 02:06 AM
http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=le&nid=733

I actually had fun writing this letter I am so tired of this old retired Pakhtun Police Inspector in Peshawar who is forever disloyal to the nation of Pakistan, no matter who is their President or what party is in power. His reason for consistent negativity is a major reason why we have so much trouble subduing much of Northern Pakistan, old and young alike, educated and uneducated, too many Pakhtuns want to break away from Pakistan and create another welfare state to feed off the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF so "they" can line their pockets.

Fortunately as evidenced by numerous recent Pakistani military obits (some are on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6544 ), there are a growing number of loyal Pakhtun officers in the Pakistani military toda, and yesterday, who are loyal to home, province, and to the nation of Pakistan.

To be clear this retired Pakhtun (Peshawar) police inspector has for years since 9/11 been pro-Taliban in his letters to the media over there...and the FRONTIER POST, being the only Pakhtun owned English daily in all of Paksitan, of course prints what he writes to them, sometimes every day!

GeorgeSingleton

George L. Singleton
08-03-2009, 12:29 AM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=77544#post77544

Pakistanis of several tribes, particulary the Bangash tribe, now in fighing zones of N. Waziristan have fled for safety into Afghanitan. Please read posting #4 from 8/2/09 Global Hujra Online to see for yourselves.

George L. Singleton
08-07-2009, 04:23 AM
Reports are circulating as of Aug. 6 that Pakistan's chief Taliban Leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in Waziristan, was killed in a missile strike of about two days ago; (added to illustrate) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/5987041/Pakistan-believes-Taliban-chief-Baitullah-Mehsud-is-dead.html

Separeately on Aug. 6 the elders of the Massud tribe visited the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, and met with the Deputy Speaker of the lower house and with some Pakistani national senators...one senator from Waziristan accompanied the visiting Massud tribe elders.

Amazingly, the Massud tribe is seeking a truce and cessation of attacks on them by the Pakistani military; this is the sort of clap trap "on again off again" attempts which only allows the Taliban to regroup and rearm.

I posted on SWJ yesterday, Aug. 5 an article supporting the fact that other Massud tribe folks have fled into Helmand Province in Southern Afghanistan, and three options for discussion of what these Massud folks could actually be up to. (Added original link: http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?p=77544#post77544)

Am wondering if others are unable or unwilling due to current events to discuss these current events topics?

davidbfpo
08-07-2009, 09:14 AM
It will be interesting to see if confirmation comes for Baitullah Mehsud's death, although I am not confident it will; e.g. Rashid Rauf's death was never confirmed.

Secondly, how will Pakistanis regard the drone attack? Previously discussed on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6801

I wonder how the Pakistani state / military are explaining this, after all he is primarily their enemy.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
08-07-2009, 12:04 PM
The BBC citing local people is reporting his death: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8188859.stm Note Pakistanis are seeking confirmation on the ground, even DNA; plus a successor is being chosen.

There are five US media reports on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=8036

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
08-07-2009, 12:23 PM
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Friday, August 7, 2009 -- 7:20 AM ET
-----

Taliban Leader in Pakistan Is Dead, His Aides Say

Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Pakistan's fearsome Taliban
militia, was killed Wednesday in a C.I.A. missile strike, two
Taliban fighters said on Friday, adding that a meeting was
taking place to determine who among his top deputies would
replace him.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

George L. Singleton
08-07-2009, 01:28 PM
I hope these GLOBAL HUJRA articles on the Khyberwatch inks help explain some of what is happening in Pakistan. I have included the biography of the leftist author of second article as it gives his background.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7415

http://www.chowk.com/writers/2100

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7417

davidbfpo
08-08-2009, 12:39 PM
So say militants in the FATA, according to the BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8191105.stm

So we await a tape recording arriving and being broadcast. By denying his death the Pakistan Taliban have set themselves a dilemma; a reminder how communications now have impacted.

davidbfpo

Bob's World
08-08-2009, 01:04 PM
Senior leaders tend to take themselves too seriously...and thereby ascribe the same self-importance to the leadership of their opponents.

Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Query two:
As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight???


The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

davidbfpo
08-08-2009, 02:37 PM
Query two: As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight??? The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

From a faraway armchair and mindful that less deaths are preferable, primarily because of the local Pashtun culture i.e. revenge and status, my answers are and not in priority:

1) As a symbol and dangerous leader his removal is justified. Primarily with it's local effect and on Pakistan. Symbolism aside little effect to the USA etc (IMHO the White House spokesman should have stayed silent).

2) Yes, new leadership will appear and have to adapt further their lifestyle.

3) From my knowledge of Kashmiri-Pakistanis here they prefer to stand on the sidelines and await a sign who is stronger. That is where the impact could / should be on the flow of support, recruitment and legitimacy.

4) The action extends the window of opportunity for Pakistan to act in the FATA; in some ways following the Imperial strategy - harsh punishment.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
08-08-2009, 03:41 PM
Ironic that British Commonwealth status allows some of the actual terrorists more travel access from their native areas into UK and elsewhere worldwide in the Commonwealth, especially including Canada.

William F. Owen
08-08-2009, 04:24 PM
Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Perhaps a better comparison is how many of a deployed SF A-TEAM would you have to kill for them to loose their effectiveness.

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity. Also from an intelligence perspective identifying and tracking enemy leaderships, usually brings a host full of other goodies.

jcustis
08-08-2009, 04:52 PM
Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity.

By this statement Wilf, are you saying that going after leadership is always worth the squeeze, even if it turns out to not be highly effective?

At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.

Ken White
08-08-2009, 05:10 PM
At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.How can you ever ascertain that, other than those who were killed in the specific attack, casualties are due to that death or action?

If you mean solely those who are nearby and thus who may be or are killed due to the attack on a specific individual, is not that attack made considering the likelihood of those casualties and thus a determination of the cost / benefit ratio is made by he or she who orders the attack? If that is the case, is that not a judgment call on the part of the order issuer based on the particulars of each case and thus subject to situational variance? Can such judgments be wrong? Surely -- but does that eliminate the need to make the call, sometimes incurring that cost, sometimes passing the opportunity by?

Please note I used 'situational variance' and probably too many words, not METT-TC. I expect an Atta-Boy. :wry:

jcustis
08-08-2009, 05:38 PM
Ken, I was thinking more on the line of civilians killed as a result of the specific attack. Seems we go for a lot of precision in these things, but if killing a leader may not be effective, as Wilf comments, why do it? I'm asking that in a rhetorical way I suppose, because I do agree that the decisions do need to be made, and I know the calculations do happen.

And I do firmly believe that we need to target leaders...no wafting about that.

William F. Owen
08-08-2009, 05:58 PM
By this statement Wilf, are you saying that going after leadership is always worth the squeeze, even if it turns out to not be highly effective?
How will you know? What evidence is there to date, that it is counter-productive? I said not "highly effective."
That they get replaced is not a reason not to do it.
My sole point is that killing enemy leaders, usually makes life more difficult for the enemy.


At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.
Of course. You have to weigh the political objective/benefit, against the down side. Your never killing these folks for fun. Your killing them to advance your policy and make their life more difficult. How many civilians is Osama Bin Laden worth? I really don't know, but hopefully someone does.

George L. Singleton
08-08-2009, 06:53 PM
HAKIMULLAH MEHSUD, brother of the late Batullah Mashud who was killed by missle strike this week, who was today named to replace his brother as top Taliban commander in Paksitan, may himself have been shot dead today. See below which is from Global Hujra Online today.

Originally Posted by wazir_gul (GLOBAL HUJRA source)
Hakimullah Mehsud killed in armed clash: sources
Updated at: 2120 PST, Saturday, August 08, 2009
SOUTH WAZIRISTAN: Spokesman of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Hakimullah Mehsud and another Taliban leader Wali-ur-Rehman have been killed in an armed clash erupted during the Tehreek’s Shura meeting, Geo TV reported Saturday.

At the meeting Hakimullah Mehsud was appointed as TTP Chief after the reported killing of Baitullah Mehsud, the state media reported.

The agenda of the meeting was to appoint successor of Baitullah Mehsud, sources said.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=84579

davidbfpo
08-08-2009, 07:11 PM
Ironic that British Commonwealth status allows some of the actual terrorists more travel access from their native areas into UK and elsewhere worldwide in the Commonwealth, especially including Canada.

George,

The UK visa rules are now quite strict in theory; both Indian and Pakistani visitors need visas for example, whereas the 'Old Commonwealth' do not, so Australians have visa-free travel for example. For the current list see: http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/policyandlaw/immigrationlaw/immigrationrules/appendix1/

Yes, there are gaps and fraud can allow entry. For example an Indian national wanted for a Mumbai terror attack in 2006 got entry to work here and then disappeared: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6345&highlight=mumbai Post 5.

The US DHS regularly raises the issue of visa-less travel by UK nationals to the USA, not that they are worried about Mr & Mrs Smith.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
08-08-2009, 07:53 PM
David, thanks for the travel v. visas clarification(s).

I suspected my post on this topic would get a comment or two from you.

davidbfpo
08-08-2009, 07:58 PM
An assessment, pro & con on: http://counterterrorismblog.org/ (Currently first item).

Secondly there is an old thread on assassination of high value targets etc: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4025 and a June 2009 update by Steve Metz, with a PPT on the topic: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/of-interest-14.pdf

davidbfpo

Bob's World
08-08-2009, 08:45 PM
Perhaps a better comparison is how many of a deployed SF A-TEAM would you have to kill for them to loose their effectiveness.

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity. Also from an intelligence perspective identifying and tracking enemy leaderships, usually brings a host full of other goodies.

The junior man of any ODA is quite capable of leading himself, and determining if he has the wherewithal to accomplish the mission or not.

But this is not the point I hoped to make. This focus on HVIs is more to the point that I am working through in my "Full-Spectrum Deterrence" and "Deterrence of Irregular Threats" work. Certainly there is a degree of "Prevent" when a key leader is taken out. There will be a short period of sorting out who steps up next for that one particular actor. But what provocative effect does this have elsewhere across a broad range of actors?

Now, I recognize this following fact cuts both ways: 50 years ago to take out such a guy in a COIN effort may well lead to temporary peace in his zone of influence. Today, word of this attack raced around the world in minutes. Some may well have been deterred by the news, for fear of suffering a similar fate. Many more were probably outraged and provoked by the news. What is the net gain or loss?? Hard to say. Generals like assessments, but there is no way to assess that. One man dead.

My strong suspicion is that such temporal, tactical gains produce far more strategic downside than upside on today's global "battlefield." Bragging about these hits to show how we are being effective is what is causing the strategic downside.

We need to just shut up, and be quiet professionals. Do the job and let those who choose to speculate speculate, but the ones we're really trying to influence know exactly what happened.

We are slipping into the same trap with unmanned aircraft and their missiles that we fell into with our bombers and guided munitions. Some news is best delivered in person. Short, violent raids with no post-op clamoring for glory will be less likely to produce the strategic downside, and probably be far more respected by those we target and thereby produce better results.

Ken White
08-08-2009, 10:33 PM
We are slipping into the same trap with unmanned aircraft and their missiles that we fell into with our bombers and guided munitions. Some news is best delivered in person. Short, violent raids with no post-op clamoring for glory will be less likely to produce the strategic downside, and probably be far more respected by those we target and thereby produce better results.Very much so.

However, I suspect that three things get in the way and in order of effect they are: Political will to launch and cope with the fallout; The issue of US casualties and potential prisoners to be exploited; The turf battle over who goes, who transports them, who extracts them, who's in charge and who's the backup and thus who gets the glory pre, during AND post op.

There are answers to all those, some easy, some less so. However, I have no doubt that's where we need to go. That's where we should have gone after Korea had we not gotten entranced with the flawed Massive Retaliation and then overeacted in response in typically American fashion and created Flexible Response predicated on an even more badly flawed philosophy of "we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty." Catchy but extremely short sighted and no strategy at all. Wasn't even really a policy, in fact, just political blather which is still causing problems today -- it did give you guys a catchy motto, though.

Strategic Raids will do far more good than interfering in other nations -- cost less, also...

In the new thinking department, I was pushing that 20 years before Eagle Claw and the Marines were doing it long before even I was born. They started on 3 March 1776 or 27 April 1805 or 18 November 1824, criteria dependent.

One of the young LTCs I pushed it to long ago and who agreed later became the DCSOPS of the Army and later named the first issue I cited as the killer. You and I have both watched the third issue and the second is part but not all of the reason for the first. Simply, the Pols will ask for a guarantee that cannot be given. Unless, of course, someone gets really innovative... ;)

jcustis
08-08-2009, 10:56 PM
My strong suspicion is that such temporal, tactical gains produce far more strategic downside than upside on today's global "battlefield." Bragging about these hits to show how we are being effective is what is causing the strategic downside.

We need to just shut up, and be quiet professionals. Do the job and let those who choose to speculate speculate, but the ones we're really trying to influence know exactly what happened.

We are slipping into the same trap with unmanned aircraft and their missiles that we fell into with our bombers and guided munitions. Some news is best delivered in person. Short, violent raids with no post-op clamoring for glory will be less likely to produce the strategic downside, and probably be far more respected by those we target and thereby produce better results.

This is why this news is odd, and makes me wonder what they are playing at. Why admit that he was killed? Why not revert to the practice of claiming civilian deaths, with the typical lack of proof? Letting on that a leader was killed in such an attack doesn't make much sense, based on what little has been provided so far.

Surferbeetle
08-08-2009, 11:46 PM
Baitullah Mehsud's death is a public example of our hunting prowess, it will increase our chances of disrupting Taliban operations for a time, and good riddance to someone who has helped to kill our boys, but then again is it possible that the Afghani viewpoint on this is...so what?

If I am 'Albert-Afghani', who is allegedly the COG of this conflict, what does this death mean to me?

1) How does it make my village safer today?
2) Is it going to fix my irrigation canals?
3) Did it help me with this years harvests, or will it with next years?
4) What does this do for today's drinking water or electrical needs?
5) Will it help me make it through the coming winter?
6) How does it give me hope for a better future?

What is the return on this particular investment of effort and how will it turn the population of Afghanistan towards forwarding the coalitions objectives (and how are they aligned with the people of Afghanistan's?) within the next 12 months?


From VOA News: Pakistan Official: Taliban Rivals Involved in Shooting (http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-08-08-voa20.cfm)


Pakistan's interior minister says the government has received reports of a shooting between two rivals for leadership of Pakistan's Taliban, and that one of them may have been killed.

Rehman Malik told reporters Saturday that fighting reportedly broke out between Taliban commanders Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah Mehsud, during a meeting to decide a successor to Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud.

George L. Singleton
08-09-2009, 02:41 AM
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/12-ttp+leader+dead+in+succession+fight--bi-08

Today, Saturday, August 8, both Hakeemullah Mehsud the younger brother of just killed two days ago Pakistan Taliban leader Batulah Mehsud and Hakeemullah's chief rival to replace Batulah Mehsud, Walur Rehman from another clan of the total Mehsud conglomeration of clans were killed in a hot argument and shoot out during a secret (now public, obviously) shura in Sara Rogha in S. Waziristan.

This leaves for the moment 50-year-old Azmatullah Mehsud as the next most likely Taliban to become leader of all Taliban in Pakistan...but Mullah Ohmar's grizzly gang could and may interfere now to place or pick another new leader of the Taliban for and in Pakistan.

See above DAWN Sunday Aug. 9 story for details. I suggest you believe the fact that all these guys are now dead in such a short period of time. The Mehsud clan allegedly does not support the use of suicide bombers, purportedly believing the use of suicide bombers is heretical to Islam.

George L. Singleton
08-10-2009, 02:13 PM
For anyone reading this on SWJ, in posts on the deaths of these three murdering thugs, Islamist Taliban, I identified the two now dead Meshuds as brothers, and the third dead Taliban leader, Rehman, as their cousin.

In fact all three are of the Meshud tribe but may or may not be the type of kinship I presumed from reading a Pakistan NEWS initial bulletin(s) on them during the weekend.

Will be glad to be openly corrected by anyone who can factually correct my statements of kinship, which solely comes from reading the English daily Pakistan NEWS stories about them.

Thanks,
George Singleton

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/hakeemullah-and-wali-both-dead-turkistan-089

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=23778

Hakeemullah and Wali both dead: Turkistan

Monday, 10 Aug, 2009 | 07:25 AM PST ISLAMABAD: Baitullah Mehsud had been killed along with 40 militants in a drone strike last week and was buried in his house, says a commander of the rival group.

Haji Turkistan Bhittani, a commander of the Abdullah Mehsud group, told various TV channels on Sunday that Qari Hussain, mastermind of several suicide attacks, was seriously injured in the attack.

He said that Mufti Waliur Rehman and Hakeemullah Mehsud, the two leading contenders for the top slot, were also killed along with several aides when fighting erupted at a shura meeting held to choose new chief of the Taliban.—APP

davidbfpo
08-10-2009, 02:27 PM
A very comprehensive review of how we got here and what might be next, Hat tip to Abu Muqawama: http://www.slate.com/id/2224668/


Now the hard part begins. Since the CIA has demonstrated its ability to pinpoint "high-level targets," it will want to go after other top Taliban leaders in Pakistan, such as Maulvi Nazir in South Waziristan and Jalaluddin Haqqani in North Waziristan. But Pakistan's military and security establishment perceives both men, who focus their fighting in Afghanistan and not in Pakistan, as national security assets more than threats. And there's no magic drone strike to fix that.

davidbfpo

Valin
08-11-2009, 06:04 AM
Mehsud killed while getting 'leg massage' (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i4Eq_E-YhxSAgx8uKC1d9lezD2-A)
AFP
8/10/09

WASHINGTON — US officials stuck to their belief that Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud was killed last week, amid reports a CIA drone fired missiles at him as he was getting a leg massage on the roof of his father-in-law's house.

A US counterterrorism official told AFP on Monday "there are strong indications (Mehsud) is dead" following a missile attack launched from unmanned aircraft.

"No one is expecting him home for dinner tonight," the official said.
(snip)

davidbfpo
08-12-2009, 06:35 PM
A detailed look at what has been reported by Bill Roggio: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/08/taliban_debunk_claim.php and a look at those reported dead before, mainly by Pakistani autorities, who were in fact alive: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/08/analysis_pakistani_c.php

Some of the comments are just as interesting as the Bill Roggio's.

davidbfpo

George L. Singleton
08-13-2009, 01:25 PM
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7417

08-11-2009, 08:18 AM
Khan Baba
Moderator Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Still searching
Posts: 3,364

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Quote:
Originally Posted by Erlangner
Gora dagdagae ka masaala hal kawallay na shee, no zandawallay kho ye shee. Ao bal da khabarra pa har soorat khkarra da, che dagdagae ba de talibano pa qatar ke zan la kalla ham zaee wrak na kree. Ao Dagdagae de senator saleh sha ao maulana noor muhammad and maulana fateh khan pa wajah pa S wazirsitan ke der asar laree, ao da dre wara mullayan pa talibano der ghat asar lareee. No pa de soorat da dagdagee role paida kegee.


[QUOTE by Khan Baba]As per my knowledge, Maulana Fazl Rehaman is the ruler of FATA. He is ruling FATA through Taliban. Almost all the madrassahs in South Waziristan are affiliated to Dagdagge, it also includes those madrassahs which are directly under control of Taliban.

Therefore, he will be the last man to support elimination of Taliban. He will always support them. When there are bombings, suicide attacks etc in the country, you will find him quiet but when govt start thinking on a possible operation against Taliban then he will come out as an arbitrator. He is the biggest bastard (with beard).
__________________
"Pa Jahan da Nangyaali wee daa duwa kara
Ya ba ukhree kakaray ya ba kamran shee"

George L. Singleton
08-27-2009, 08:15 AM
http://asinstitute.org/node/275 (http://asinstitute.org/node/275)

This excellent recent article (Aug. 10, 2009) from the Lahore based ASIAN INSTITUTE on the supremacy of civil law over religious law is a must read for everyone interested in the total war on terrorism today.

davidbfpo
08-29-2009, 10:32 PM
A report that the Pakistani Army will not take ground action in Waziristan, to the annoyance of the USA: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/08/pakistans-campain-against-taliban-in.html

The target being the Pakistan Taliban group, TTP.

davidbfpo

Schmedlap
08-30-2009, 04:34 AM
My strong suspicion is that such temporal, tactical gains produce far more strategic downside than upside on today's global "battlefield."
I look at it this way: who do we want commanding our enemy's forces? To use an OIF example, I think that killing Zarqawi was wise. Likewise, I think that not killing al-Masri was wise. It was better to have al-Masri running the show than Zarqawi.

davidbfpo
08-31-2009, 08:46 PM
An interesting BBC News report on the appearance of bound and blindfolded bodies in Swat Valley, not clear who is responsible - locals seeking revenge or the security forces: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8230267.stm

We know from history the Pakistani Army can be ruthless.

Are these the right suspects?

davidbfpo

tpjkevin
09-21-2009, 02:58 PM
Racquets, not AKs.


PESHAWAR, Pakistan (CNN) -- As a little girl, Maria Toor Pakay would beat up boys.

Now, she dispenses of anyone who takes her on within the walls of a squash court.

Pakay, 18, is Pakistan's No. 1-ranked women's squash player. But what makes her story remarkable is that she hails from the country's tribal region of South Waziristan.

The region, along the border with Afghanistan, is home to the Taliban.

There, suicide attacks are a way of life. And the militants, bent on imposing a strict form of Islamic law, punish girls who attend school -- let alone play sports.

"They have no future," Pakay said. "They spend their entire lives in four walls in their home. Their ability is destroyed."

But Pakay wasn't like most girls growing up. She sported a buzz cut and mixed with the boys.

"If someone argued with me, I used to beat them up," she said. "I wanted them to obey me all the time."

Her father, Shams-ul-Qayum Wazir, knew early on that his daughter was different.

"I didn't want her talent to go to waste," he said. "If I would've kept her in the village, all she could do was housekeeping."

So, Wazir packed up the family and moved to Peshawar, the capital of the North West Frontier Province.

Here, Pakay picked up the racquet and swatted down the competition with ease -- first winning the Under-13 championship, then the Under-15, then the Under-17.

In squash, players take turns hitting a ball to the front wall of a court, until one misses.

Pakay, it turned out, rarely did.

"I thought nobody could beat me," she said. "From the beginning when I played squash, I thought I could be a world champion."

Today, despite the lack of a sponsor and few resources, Pakay has gone pro -- and is ranked 91st in the world.

Her father's sacrifice, she said, made her success possible.

"I think I have a great father -- so broad-minded," she said.

For his part, Wazir -- a teacher -- was more circumspect.

"I sacrificed because I want to promote a message of peace," he said. "If the tribal people pick up a racquet instead of a gun, there would be peace.

Link (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/SPORT/09/21/pakistan.squash.champion/index.html)

Roughnet13888
10-04-2009, 08:06 AM
Ron:
The Taliban and al Qaida defacto have allies in the Pakistani Government, Army, and the ISI, as seen by most Pukhtun writers on Hujra Online, and I am starting to agree with them, as moving troops away from fighting terrorists to the stupid Indian border just lets the damned terrorists have the run of the ground in Swat, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, and Balochistan ALL OVER AGAIN!
Simple interest calculator calculation rates mortgage compound high interest savings account (http://simpleinterestcalculator.org)
A MIDDLE GROUND of sane Pukhtuns do not totally reject the national/nationally backed provincial governments, and these are mainly YOUNGER Pukhtuns who have educations to even be on a website such as Hujra Online.

The hope, or failure of Northern Pakistan is largely with the high school and university age young men and women who are Pukhtuns. These in the main are who write on this site and who I communicate with as best I can.

MULTILINGUAL, not stupid, folks, these Pukhtuns. A typical educated or being educated today Pukhtun, is eduated in Urdu (the official language of the Pak Government is Urdu. Urdu is the identifying language of Punjabis, anethma to older Pukhtuns and to a growing number of younger Pukhtuns).

They then "chose" to save their culture via their language, which they also study and become fluent in, Pashtu.

To be effective in both the region and on a world level, focused on Pukhtuns overseas in Europe, Canada, and the US, they learn and are pretty good with English.


If we look on today's environment, you will find that it's very changed now.

davidbfpo
10-04-2009, 10:00 AM
Roughnet,

Welcome aboard SWC and many members appreciate a little introduction, within OPSEC and anonymity - posted on this thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1441&page=55

It is not compulsory, but new members credibility is influenced by the introduction.

Finally, George S. no longer contributes and it would help if you could enhance your opinion line, either citing articles or your own experiences.

davidbfpo

omarali50
10-11-2009, 06:46 PM
The jihadi raid on Pakistan's GHQ prompted immediate discussion on our blog and others, complete with conspiracy theories (the army did it to prepare public opinion for the waziristan operatiion, the CIA did it to prepare the army opinion for the same, the jihadis did it, T.H..E.Y did it, and so on). I am posting my comment (posted in response to the theory that the army arranged this "show") and look forward to your comments.
Dr T,
I assume you are asking about the GHQ siege. I think the commando action sounds like it was capable and well executed. You are being cynical about why the suicide bomber did not blow himself up, but it is not impossible to kill a suicide bomber before he explodes. Commandos executing such a raid are always taking a risk, but there is always the chance of success. This is what they are trained to do. They can use stun grenades, which can disorient and stun the terrorists for a few moments. In that time, the commando sharpshooters have to shoot the terrorists without killing hostages. The first reaction of the terrorists is to fire back at the attackers, not to turn and start shooting hostages. Anyway, in our history, we have had good operations (this one and the one in lal masjid) and really bad screw-ups (the Pan Am hijacking in the eighties when the commandos seem to have killed more hostages than the hijackers managed to kill).
The bottom line is, even I find it hard to believe that anyone in the army would be as stupid as to have these martyrdom seekers attack their own GHQ. I think this was a bona-fide terrorist attack. Its a huge embarrassment for the army that they got into even the outer buildings of GHQ. Still, once they had been embarrassed, the army did take the risk of having the hostages killed and went for an early commando raid and as such raids go, they seem to have succeeded.
I think the more important thing is to notice that the person leading the terrorists is supposed to be the same SOB who attacked the Sri-lankan cricket team in April. Why was he still at large? renting houses, arranging white vans with army license plates, getting terrorists in place for a well planned raid? This is not a good reflection on the state of law enforcement and anti-terrorist operations in the country.
Also, this is old news for many of us, but worth pointing out that this jihadi terrorist, like all the others now being hunted or asked to go to Indian Kashmir ASAP, was initially trained by our own blessed intelligence agencies and their pet proxies. And he and his ilk are able to survive until today because parts of the jihadi infrastructure (supporters, sympathizers, financiers, facilitators) share space with "India-specific terrorists" and still do not face a situation where the entire network is under attack from the state. More important, the educated public in Pakistan is still confused about what is going on. The army's powerful psyops operation is very quick to manufacture outrage about Hussain Haqqani or Asif Zardari, but has not made a systematic effort to disown and attack the armed jihadis. Their patrons (like Hameed Gul and company) and bull#### artists like Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid are still being invited on the media to cloud the issue with conspiracy theories about Indian hand and American embassy staffers and their cars. This is a very serious handicap because it means that "moderate islamists" (a large constituency in educated Pakistan) and ordinarly Pakistanis in general are still not clear about who the enemy is. Without the cooperation of the general public, no anti-terrorist campaign can succeed.
Having said that, I would also add that I continue to believe that the longer term trend is clearly against the jihadis. There is just no way that the "settled areas" of Pakistan will opt for taliban style rule. The hardcore jihadi enterprise is not compatible with survival in the modern world and will eventually be confined to places like Waziristan and isolated small groups (the islamist equivalent of the Baader Meinhof gang and the Red brigades). All the above comments are part of the messy mechanism of getting from the age of Hameed Gul and General Mahmud to the age of co-existence with India and the modern world.
Omar

davidbfpo
10-11-2009, 08:02 PM
Omar,

I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

Given the capabilities and intentions of the three groups forming the militant opposition (Pakistani Taleban, LeT and South Punjabi groups) such an attack is clearly possible. What I do wonder about is the selection of such a target, who choses them? The Lahore attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team shows a strategic, maybe tactical acumen not normally seen. On reflection after Mumbai, maybe we should have learnt they will attack for maximim imagery impact.

After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

davidbfpo

omarali50
10-12-2009, 02:43 AM
Omar,

I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

...After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

davidbfpo

I dont hold with the conspiracy theory either, maybe that was not clear from my post. About target selection, I think the number of possible high impact targets is so great that just increasing security at particular sites is not going to work (though its important in its own place). The real issue is to go after the heads of the network. Spontaneous jihadis are an overrated threat, the only serious threat is from organized networks. These are professionals, they have all been trained using the same CIA field manual the UNiversity of Nebraska so helpfully translated into Urdu and Pushto. If the Pakistani army actually manages to attack them in Waziristan, their effectiveness will decrease and new recruitment in Pakistan will become much harder for them. Without a base, they will gradually be wiped out, with a base they can always find replacements for any particular individual who is knocked out.

davidbfpo
10-13-2009, 09:54 PM
A new Pakistani campaign in Waziristan is expected soon and has been subject of scattered comments on SWJ blog and within other threads.

There are lessons to learn from an Imperial (British Empire in India) campaign in this part of the FATA read thanks to the UK blogsite (again): http://defenceoftherealm.blogspot.co...re-before.html

There are links to other sources within and this appeared originally within the current Afghan campaigning thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=8577&page=4 where similar points that lessons can be learnt have been made.

I do wonder whether the Pakistani military remember this too? Imperial history is still part of their tradition and army units have kept their old Imperial names, head dress and more (not the consumption of alcohol).

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
10-13-2009, 09:58 PM
IMO the Pak Army retains far too much of the British attitude towards the FATA. The system for "controlling" FATA remained much the same as during British times (political agents = political agents, Waziristan Scouts = Frontier Corps), and the level of development.

(Copied from earlier thread by moderator).

davidbfpo
10-13-2009, 10:04 PM
A reader of SWC has responded to my initial posting:


I read the original article years ago and have now read this blog. The problem is, it's wrong.

The fact is that the Faqir was defeated. He could barely muster any men by the middle of 1939. During the war years, precisely the time
he could have taken advantage of Britain, he was unable to stir the Waziris to any resistance. Recruiting for the British Indian Army went exponential. The number of incidents against the British and the border units fell to practically nil from February 1941 until 1947 when the British left.

Hauner was simply inaccurate because he had not done the archival work. Trevor Warren wrote the best account, now sadly out of print.

The key point is that the Waziris, especially tribal elders, dissuaded young Waziris from joining the Faqir and his band. he was regarded as a troublemaker. Waziris had more sense than to take on the British on a permanent basis.

On these grounds, the Pakistan Army is NOT about to make the
same mistake at all, and history does not, contrary to popular mythology, repeat itself.

davidbfpo
10-13-2009, 10:10 PM
A quick Google found some details of the Warren book:

Alan Warren. Waziristan, the Faqir of Ipi, and the Indian Army: The North West Frontier Revolt of 1936–37. New York: Oxford University Press. 2000. Pp. xxxii, 324. $29.95.

This is an account taken from official records of the 1930s' tribal insurgencies in the Waziristan region of India's northwest frontier. The Waziristan agencies were on the periphery of British India and had a population, by its close, of little more than two hundred thousand. The region was the scene, however, of the greatest military conflicts of the closing years of the Raj. Following the tribal insurgencies of 1919–1920 and 1936–1937, there was the heaviest concentration of troops and police per head of population anywhere on the subcontinent. It is therefore a little surprising that these events had received scant historical attention until the publication of this study.

Alan Warren unashamedly adopts the narrative style of military history and reveals a fine eye for detail as he meticulously pieces together British engagements in Waziristan. The greatest attention is devoted to the insurgency led by the Muslim holy man known as the Faqir of Ipi in 1936–1937. Although the tribal revolt was decisively crushed, a cat and mouse game continued between the Faqir and the British authorities throughout the remainder of their stay in India.

From: http://www.historycooperative.org/cgi-bin/justtop.cgi?act=justtop&url=http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ahr/106.4/br_26.html

omarali50
10-15-2009, 03:21 PM
There were multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan today. I posted the following comment on my email group this morning and thought it may be of interest to some people here:
I just spoke with some friends in Lahore and they (and according to them, "everyone in Lahore") were convinced that these attacks were carried out on American instructions. The argument was that the US wants Pakistan in turmoil so it can get them to launch an operation against the very people America is using to create turmoil so that those same people can be attacked by the Pak army..I know. My jaw dropped as well.
OR, its doing this to sell them weapons. or steal the nuclear bomb. Or build a gas pipeline. or raise Obama's poll numbers. or just because its America and America does evil things. or something, no one really knows for sure. I was also told that "the army has reported that some madressas in Rajanpur got funding in dollars. The conclusion is obvious"? Naturally, I was speechless. Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid have done their job all too well, the army apparently cannot now convince the people to fight the jihadis EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. Aap apney jaal mein Sayyad aa gaya...
No fiction writer could ever have written this and got away with it. Indeed, truth is stranger than fiction.
btw, does anyone have any information about who is funding Ahmed Qureshi and company? Is ISI still employing them or are they free-lance now? When the history of this time is written, the role played by professional gnerators of conspiracy theories will be studied and historians will wonder how so few could confuse so many for so long. (and of course, even the paranoid have enemies, so I am not saying ALL the conspiracy theories are incorrect).
The ruling elite (and their American and Saudi and now Chinese partners) has spent 50 years manipulating things from behind the scenes. By now, the trust level in society (in these matters) is so low, the army cannot fix its own mess. If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.

slapout9
10-15-2009, 11:59 PM
If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.

Omarali, keep us up to date I enjoy reading your reports. I saw a TV news report tonight about Lahore and 2 other attacks they were supposedly conducted all at about the same time. If that is correct that shows a high degree of coordination for all the attacks. What is your opinion on this?

omarali50
10-16-2009, 06:55 PM
These are well trained terrorists. I am sure you have studied the operation they launched against Mumbai. And they have these things written down in manuals. When you join LET, you first go for a basic course (a few weeks) learning to shoot and stuff. Then some go on to more advanced courses. They keep diaries, they get homework. They are highly motivated. I am not surprised at the level of coordination. But all of this requires safe houses and training centers. Unless the army decides to go after those, there is no way you can protect every possible target. There are literally thousands of targets.

davidbfpo
10-22-2009, 01:41 PM
Stephen Tankel has added a trenchant comment on the situation in Pakistan: http://www.icsr.info/blog/Jumping-the-Shark and asks at the end:


For starters, I'm curious if anyone out there knows of improvements or planned improvements in terms of a) better inter-agency intelligence sharing; b) increased funding and training for Pakistani police; or c) increasing capacity within intelligence agencies that are not the ISI.

I know there is a thread on the ANP, but I cannot immediately recall one on the police in Pakistan (although ISI do crop up irregularly - in a thread?).

Another day I shall search around for articles on the Pakistan police. There is a ICG report on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5737 (July 2008).

davibfpo

Dayuhan
10-24-2009, 12:26 AM
Very interesting situation... the Pakistani Taliban seem to be gambling that this string of attacks will break the political will behind action against them and their sanctuaries. That seems a bit of a risk; the attacks could have the opposite effect. I don't know enough about Pakistan to have an opinion on how the government and the populace will respond, but it certainly bears watching.

Bill Moore
10-24-2009, 01:52 AM
No fiction writer could ever have written this and got away with it. Indeed, truth is stranger than fiction.

The above statement is so true. If I wrote a fiction book in 1999 and the tale basically went that some master mind in Afghanistan launched a few dedicated terrorists to the U.S. to crash planes into the WTC and the Pentagon most analysts would have fell on the floor laughing. Then assuming our response was to send in a few brave souls from the CIA and Special Operations to oust this evil force, and just to add some more spice I might write that a few Special Forces teams on horse back were directing deadly fires from our air assets to support their Northern Alliance partners that they were fighting side by side with any so called serious military analyst would wonder just what the hell I was smoking when I wrote this. If I then wrote that in response to the 9/11 attacks we invaded Iraq the diplomatic community would say no way, that's stupid, but nevermind them, back to the conflict. I would write that our mighty armed forces were challenged by 4GW irregular forces, but that our forces eventually eventually got the upper hand after re-learning how to defeat irregular threats. Those military analysts who thought if we had the ability to defeat the Soviets in the Fulda Gap, then we obviously had the ability to defeat a few irregulars or dead enders, are still scratching their heads. There is no way that an irregular force could have seriously challenged their armor and firepower formations, so my book would go in the trash can. If I wrote book three of this saga and indicated that a nuclear power nation-state was facing the possibility of state failure due to irregular threats that are connected to global non-state movement I would have been thrown into the nut house.

Our failure to stop 9/11 according to the 9/11 commission was a lack of imagination. What a difference a day makes.

omarali50
10-24-2009, 05:14 AM
cross posting from abumuqawama, here is my take on this offensive:
Based purely on public information about the terrain, the military operation and what we know of the insurgents, plus what the refugees are saying: the army has advanced a short distance into the Islamic emirate. They captured and then lost Hakeemullah's home village and have not managed to get it back yet. The taliban are willing to stand and fight in at least some locations and the army is very loath to close and fight hand to hand. The army is shelling and strafing villages and compounds with abandon. Those places are mostly empty, so casualties on all sides are low. My guess is that until now the army has suffered more casualties than the taliban. That is because the individual talib soldiers are better trained and motivated than the army. The army has a huge edge in firepower but that is not enough to dislodge them from where they are prepared to stand and fight. The army's hope is that massive use of artillery and airpower and a general show of force will convince the talibs to melt away rather than stand and fight. The taliban are willing to go along with that in many places, but are not willing to just withdraw from everywhere and allow the army to claim victory. At some point, the army will have to fight up close, at which point casualties will rise dramatically. To avoid such casualties the army is willing to go slow and hope that the good taliban can convince the evil taliban not to be stubborn and to let the army have its way (in return the talibs get to stay alive and concentrate on Afghanistan). But the bad taliban are not willing to follow the script. THEIR hope is that their campaign of terrorism will cause the people of Pakistan to press the army to stop. What I cannot figure out is what is the army's plan if they continue terrorism and DON'T melt away? Taking Waziristan ridge by ridge is not going to be a picnic. MAYBE the army is determined to do that if they have to, but I dont see convincing evidence of that as yet...I look forward to your report....

tequila
10-24-2009, 03:12 PM
Army reports they have retaken Kotkai (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/10/24/world/AP-AS-Pakistan.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print).

davidbfpo
10-24-2009, 04:25 PM
Attached is a short version of a paper written by a Pakistani civilian analyst, based in the USA, who has contributed on SWC before.

davidbfpo

omarali50
10-24-2009, 05:57 PM
If its not totally classified, can anyone enlighten us about the current level of cooperation between the US/NATO and the Pakistani army?
David, your analyst asks for drone attacks to be stopped, but doesnt make it clear what the reason is. IF the Pak army is in action against the bad taliban, one assumes that the bad taliban are already doing all they can to strike back. is there an assumption here that they will strike back even harder if they are being bothered by drones? Or is it that the writer think Pakistani army morale and public support will go down if there are drone attacks? IF so, why? the army is in a life and death struggle against well armed militants. Why is it so hard to tell its own officers that drones are helping us? Or is it that the drones will ignite unpleasantness from the "good taliban"? IF so, does it suit the US to let the good taliban have a break in the interest of having the pakistani army deal with them later? Or does it suit the US to inflame the good taliban and get them to a final rupture with the army? What is going on behind the scenes?

davidbfpo
10-24-2009, 06:49 PM
Omerali asked:
If its not totally classified, can anyone enlighten us about the current level of cooperation between the US/NATO and the Pakistani army?

I understand that the Western coalition have offered places on COIN training courses for mid-rank officers. Whether the Pakistani Army has resumed courses in the USA is unknown here; historically this was for senior officers.

IIRC the UK has not had Pakistani cadets at Sandhurst for a long time, although there is one Afghan there now.

The Frontier Corps has an external training mission, IIRC the US was working with the FC's SF unit months ago.

Much was made over a year plus ago that there was a tripartite commission between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the coalition - based in Kabul. Again IIRC there was an Islamabad-based aspect too.

There have been repeated comments that many of the drone attacks are a response to Pakistani requests and intelligence. Leaving aside that one Pakistani AFB is a drone base.

Given the often reported Pakistani Army anger at US interventions, visits and more one can only wonder at the reality of co-operation.

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
10-25-2009, 01:03 PM
An interesting article on the likely reaction of the Mehsud tribe, who dominate South Waziristan, which is based on interviews with refugees (no-one is embedded with the Pakistani Army IIRC): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/6423710/Pakistan-armys-South-Waziristan-battle-fails-to-win-hearts-and-minds-of-tribesmen.html

One telling passage reminds us of the previous 'Go,Stop' policy:

Three times in the past, the army has agreed a ceasefire and peace terms with the Taliban in South Waziristan. Each time, the Taliban took bloody revenge on those who had sided with the state. Mehsuds remember bitterly how in 2005, following such a deal, a Pakistani army general literally embraced the then Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud, and called him "a soldier of peace".

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
11-01-2009, 06:17 PM
Lots of offsite reporting (see SWJ Blog) and here is an on the ground report, when the Pakistani Army allowed access: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8335232.stm

A rare item on the Pakistani-Saudi relationship, a vist to the King by the ISI chief: http://www.ptinews.com/news/357248_ISI-chief-meets-Saudi-Arabian-King-Abdullah

MikeF
11-01-2009, 06:30 PM
Lots of offsite reporting (see SWJ Blog) and here is an on the ground report, when the Pakistani Army allowed access: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8335232.stm

David,

Thanks for the link. This operation looks very impressive, and the Pak Army should be praised. When the military operation is concluded, I hope that they take the time to really build the area (schools, roads, wells, etc).

Mike

carl
11-01-2009, 07:23 PM
A rare item on the Pakistani-Saudi relationship, a vist to the King by the ISI chief: http://www.ptinews.com/news/357248_ISI-chief-meets-Saudi-Arabian-King-Abdullah

The ISI head meets with the King instead of the Pakistani President. The King states he supports Pakistan's fight against the militants. Given the history of both Saudi Arabia and the ISI in supporting the Taliban, I wonder what kind of deal making was going on. My suspicious mind can come up with all kinds of things.

M Payson
11-01-2009, 08:52 PM
This site is tracking day-by-day actions and maps on South Waziristan campaign http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/waziristan-ground-operation-coverage-pakistan-october-2009.

They’ve also got profiles of Taliban leaders. Here’s the link to Hakimullah Mehsud. I found Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s profile to be detailed and careful with the facts (accurate as far as I could know) http://www.irantracker.org/related-threats/king-dead-long-live-king-hakimullah-mehsud-takes-power-ttp.

davidbfpo
11-01-2009, 09:59 PM
MPayson,

Thanks for the pointer to:http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/waziristan-ground-operation-coverage-pakistan-october-2009 . Yes, the mapping is useful and the information. I did read some of the analysis and paused reading this:
Pakistan has an effective military strategy

•Methodical – slow advance with a force that outnumbers the enemy. Difficult towns (Kotkai, Makin) are encircled through control of surrounding peaks then cleared later. Jets with precision munitions eliminate 12.7mm anti-aircraft guns after initial TTP harassment of helicopters, allowing close helicopter support.
•The Pakistani military has learned lessons from its 2004 incursion into Waziristan and 2008 Bajaur operation: they are seizing the high ground to control valleys.
•Pakistanis employing effective route clearance packages to limit damage from IEDs

Even I know from this "armchair" that seizing the high ground is basic in mountain warfare, add in years of experience and preparation - if the Pakistanis had failed to do this I'd be worried. They are a professional army, grounded in preparing to fight a conventional war and have adapted.

davidbfpo

M Payson
11-02-2009, 10:21 AM
Well, it turns out that she didn't really meet with "Pakhtun leaders" as we might reasonably understand it -- or the mix of traditional leaders I'd have hoped for in the current situation http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=206400. Whether that was because they refused or weren't invited isn't clear.

But it's more likely that "promoting civil society" won out over talking to the tribes, and that an NGO-driven approach to development and reconstruction is being pursued in a place where people don't even relate to what that is -- except in the negative. "We don't understand what it is, but we know it's bad," said one senior leader from North Waziristan during a discussion about development earlier this year. "They come to do development but preaching religion is their main aim," said another. They're also the ones who said non-threatening things like, "We invite foreign assistance, we need it" and "People are losing confidence....We need action and results!" and "Until now, we were just asked about our problems, not about how to solve them."

It's ironic that the group credited with organizing the invitees seems to have lost their own plot. "FIDA aims to act as a bridge between traditional and modern systems of governance and society." http://fidapk.org/about/intro.html They forgot the traditional.

The US has virtually no constructive relationship with either of the Waziristans. Working from the outside in and forgetting the complex of existing leaders simply won't cut the mustard, nor will nattering on about peace. I thought the Obama administration was working on that, but somebody on the team got the messaging wrong this time. And these folks are pretty attuned to messages.

omarali50
11-02-2009, 09:32 PM
I think that the US embassy would have LIKED to see some actual tribal elders there, but THEY refused to meet her because they are afraid of having their head cut off. Btw, being identified in this specific manner in ""the news" is probably not helping any of them sleep better at night.

David, About the Pakistani army's current offensive, where do you think the taliban have gone? The army has claimed to have killed about 50 of them (the taliban have admitted less, and in this matter, their spokesmen have a history of being more reliable than the army) so where are the other 9950? If they have slipped away to other agencies, then this whack a mole strategy will soon be faced with new problems...

Do you think the army has decided to dump the good taliban? If not, what great difference will this offensive make to Afghanistan (or even to Pakistan, where the bad taliban frequently find refuge with their good cousins)? And if they have decided to dump the good taliban, what should we expect to see next?

I really dont know the answers. I am working on the formula that sometimes its a good idea to just ask...

davidbfpo
11-03-2009, 10:49 PM
Following a recommendation on Abu M, as written by the best sourced local reporter:

Hakimullah Mehsud of the TTP, according to Asia Times Online contacts, has apparently adopted a strategy that will not expend too many resources on protecting the Mehsud area. Instead, he aims to spread chaos by attacking security personnel in the cities.

The same contacts say that when thousands of people left South Waziristan last week under the military's directives, a majority of the militants melted away to the Shawal region, situated at the crossroads of South Waziristan, Afghanistan and North Waziristan, besides going to Pakistani cities.

A very limited force is entrenched in the Mehsud tribal area, and by all accounts it is putting up fierce resistance.

By marching into South Waziristan, the military has taken something of a gamble as it is highly unlikely to eliminate the militant threat. Indeed, the past seven or so years have shown that after any operation against militants, the militants have always gained from the situation. By the same token, the militants don't have the capacity to permanently control ground beyond their areas in South Waziristan and North Waziristan.

...there are signals that the Taliban in the Swat area in North-West Frontier Province are regrouping after being pushed back by the army this year. It is likely that by the time the snow chokes major supply routes, the Taliban will have seized all lost ground in the Swat Valley.

From: http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/10/19-10

From a Time article. The Pakistani Army CoS letter dropped in South Waziristan, an excerpt:

To the brave and honorable people of the Mehsud tribe. The operation is not meant to target the valiant and patriotic Mehsud tribes but aimed at ridding them of the elements who have destroyed peace in the region.

The article ends with:
Taking the battle to the militants in South Waziristan, says Lieut. General Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, the former governor of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, "is a requirement, but not a solution — a first field dressing to a battle wound." The solution, as is usually the case in regions that breed insurgencies — and not just in Pakistan — is better governance. No sign of that yet.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1933211-2,00.html#ixzz0Vq6fufQr

davidbfpo

davidbfpo
11-03-2009, 11:01 PM
Omarali50 asked:


David, About the Pakistani army's current offensive, where do you think the taliban have gone? The army has claimed to have killed about 50 of them (the taliban have admitted less, and in this matter, their spokesmen have a history of being more reliable than the army) so where are the other 9950? If they have slipped away to other agencies, then this whack a mole strategy will soon be faced with new problems.

I expect that many of the fighters left before the attack, it was so well advertised and the Pakistani Army's options on the ground were limited. I have seen one report that they are in the area where the Afghan border abuts the two Waziristan and of course there is no "anvil" on the other side of the border. Unless of course there is a "flying anvil" waiting to act.


Do you think the army has decided to dump the good taliban? If not, what great difference will this offensive make to Afghanistan (or even to Pakistan, where the bad taliban frequently find refuge with their good cousins)? And if they have decided to dump the good taliban, what should we expect to see next?

No, the Pakistani Army have not dumped all the Taliban; that has not been their approach before, rather military action: negoitate, local deal, Taliban renege on deal, wait awhile and start again. I am beginning to suspect the Taliban have decided to dump the Army. For a variety of reasons the internal Taliban (a very broad coalition) have made the Pakistani state the main target. Next, well some sheer terror attacks e.g. Peshawar market (used by women), raids on state installations and "spectaculars" by LeT in particular.

I wonder what Stephen Tankel's thoughts are now? (LeT expert).

My answers are from an "armchair" faraway and based on some reading.

davidbfpo