Many in Terrorists' 'Next Generation' Dead

[SWJED]

9 June Associated Press - Many in Terrorists' 'Next Generation' Dead (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/09/AR2006060900910.html).


They rose up quickly to take up Osama bin Laden's call for jihad, ruthless men in their 20s and 30s heralded as the next generation of global terror.

Two years later, 40 percent are dead, targets of a worldwide crackdown that claimed its biggest victory with the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida's front man in Iraq.

Manhunts in Asia, Africa and Europe have pushed most of the rest deep underground - finding refuge in war-torn Somalia or the jungles of the southern Philippines. While there are still recruits ready to take up al-Qaida's call to arms, analysts say the newcomers have fewer connections than the men they are replacing, less training and sparser resources...

[Strickland]

I am not sure where these folks got their facts from in order to conclude that 40% had been killed. I would argue that thousands, if not tens of thousands, were killed by the Soviets during their ten year run in Afghanistan, and yet the extremist movement continued.

In Iraq, the MOI asserts that in 2005, they killed 1702 Insurgents and detained another 9264. Yet, the violence continues to increase each year.

In the extremist movement itself, Hassan Banna was killed and replaced by Sayid Qutb. Qutb was killed and spawned a new generation of radicals such as Abdullah Azzam and Shiekh Yassin. Azzam was murdered by his own, and the movement was taken over by Bin Laden and Zawahiri. Yassin was murdered and replaced by Rantissi, who was murdered and replaced by another. The point is that there is always another.

In some ways, I feel as if we are fighting this like Vietnam, in which we are trying to fight the birth rate. We are trying to kill more than are reproduced.

[Jedburgh]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Unfortunately, although we've made a conscious effort to try and avoid the "body count" stats of Vietnam, the demands from politicians and the public for progress reports inevitably result in some sort of quantitative assessment.

A qualitative assessment tells a much better story. But a thorough qualitative assessment requires a lengthy narrative, presented in great detail. A quantitative assessment can present numbers representing progress on a single page. The fast-food consumer doesn't get the best product.