PDA

View Full Version : Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more



Pages : [1] 2

bourbon
09-11-2007, 02:43 PM
Letter from Timbuktu, by Austin Merrill. Vanity Fair Web Exclusive, September 10, 2007. http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/09/sahara200709 (http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/09/sahara200709)


The Pentagon has allotted $500 million to the fight against terrorism in the Sahara Desert, using American Special Forces teams to train African armies and befriend locals. Vanity Fair was invited to join the U.S. military on a recent mission to Timbuktu, Mali, to get an up-close look at one of the lesser-known fronts in the battle against al-Qaeda.
by Austin Merrill WEB EXCLUSIVE September 10, 2007

Kevin23
10-22-2009, 08:48 PM
Over the past few years or so(since at least 2006) elements of Columbian drug cartels have been setting up business in the West African nation of Guinea-Bissau, In hopes of both getting out up of an increasingly hostile environment in Columbia for the cartels as well as finding a route to further their trade into Europe. From what I understand the Columbian Cartels and other elements of the drug trade from Latin America have been stepping up their business in the West African nation, especially recently. Also I’ve heard that the Columbians/Latin Americans in Guinea-Bissau are being joined by other organizations like criminal gangs/mafias from Russia and Eastern Europe as well as militant groups from the Middle East like Hezbollah have set up shop there also, all trying to make money from the illicit trade recently established in the West African nation.

So I was wondering if any SWJ members would mind telling me more about what is happening Guinea-Bissau and where I could find more information on the drug trade recently established there and whether all of this is overblown or not?

Thank you,

bourbon
10-23-2009, 12:09 AM
From the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime:

Cocaine Trafficking in West Africa: The threat to stability and development
(with special reference to Guinea-Bissau) (http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/west_africa_cocaine_report_2007-12_en.pdf) - December 2007 (pdf)
Drug Trafficking as a Security Threat in West Africa (http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Drug-Trafficking-WestAfrica-English.pdf) - November 2008 (pdf)
Transnational Trafficking and the Rule of Law in West Africa: A Threat Assessment (http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/West_Africa_Report_2009.pdf) - July 2009 (pdf)

The Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting has done a good series:

Guinea-Bissau: West Africa's New Achilles' Heel (http://www.pulitzercenter.org/showproject.cfm?id=114)
Untold Stories (http://pulitzercenter.typepad.com/untold_stories/guinea-bissau/)

Commando Spirit
12-14-2009, 03:20 PM
(Moderator's Note Athis appeared as a RFI and was moved to the Africa thread 27/6/2010, where it sits better now; PM to originator. Mod's Note BTitle of thread changed to reflect two subjects covered Mali mainly and drugs in the region).

Does anyone know anything about Mali please? I'm about to do some research on the place and given the level of expertise in here thought that SWJ was a good place to start.

Are there any security issues there? Any potential conflict?

Historical involvement in conflicts around Africa?

Sorry to be so Billy Basic but I have to start this off somewhere!

davidbfpo
12-14-2009, 11:09 PM
Being a former French colony and until recently in an obscure part of West Africa / Sahel Mali has an amazingly low profile. Try the standard newsites like the BBC or the CIA and others for a country profile.

Mali has recently featured in some UK-funded counter-radicalisation work, with a conference for clerics in Bamako; which appeared in The Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/mali/5067404/Al-Qaedas-spreading-tentacles-in-West-Africa-opposed-by-traditional-leaders.html

and within the last few weeks a crashed aircraft loaded with cocaine. AQIM is rumoured to have a presence in the north and linked to kidnapping of foriegners. Just put Mali in Google News and its all there.

There is a specialist website, partly in French IIRC: http://www.thecroissant.com/index.html (behind a paywall alas)

The US Africa Command has had a training mission there and exercises.

Not sure how strong the French connection is now, so have a look for Frech experts?

Uboat509
12-15-2009, 12:37 AM
Does anyone know anything about Mali please? I'm about to do some research on the place and given the level of expertise in here thought that SWJ was a good place to start.

Are there any security issues there? Any potential conflict?

Historical involvement in conflicts around Africa?

Sorry to be so Billy Basic but I have to start this off somewhere!

The French are still there, in fact one of them was recently kidnapped (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,577126,00.html) in Western Mali.

Security issues abound in Sub Saharen Africa and Mali is no exception. If you are looking for searches, look into Mali and the Tuaregs. There is a great deal to be found on that subject. Also search for Mali and AQIM (http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqim.html).

Jedburgh
12-15-2009, 04:17 AM
....Security issues abound in Sub Saharen Africa and Mali is no exception. If you are looking for searches, look into Mali and the Tuaregs. There is a great deal to be found on that subject. Also search for Mali and AQIM (http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqim.html).
The Tuareg rebels in the north are led by Ibrahim Ag Bahanga and grouped under the Alliance Touareg Nord-Mali pour le Changement (ATNMC).

When looking into security and conflict, don't restrict yourself to Mali. Many issues are regionally linked throughout the Sahel (http://sahelblog.wordpress.com/category/sahel/mali/). Look into crime, smuggling and terrorism, separately and together.

M-A Lagrange
12-15-2009, 10:33 AM
Commando spirit

As I’m French, I may enter in the discussion… But Mali is not the part of Africa I am the most familiar with.

Good sources to start with and be familiar with what is going on there is to look at
www.rfi.fr
www.afrik.com/mali
www.Allafrica.com (especially the French version).

If you read French, then go to Karthala (http://www.karthala.com/index.php) and Harmathan (http://www.harmattan.fr/index.asp).
It is the two main French editors for development, history, security research books.
You may find some stuff in English in their catalogue (but I doubt of it).

In English:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/quicksearch~db=all?quickterm=mali&searchtype=
You will find a lot of publications on Mali. Mostly development oriented but will help you to understand the economic and sociological issues there, often linked with security/political issues. In Africa, I would say that economy and politic/security are bound and melted.

I do not know how much this will help as it’s not Mali focussed only. But as Jedburgh said, most of the issues are regional. I can orient you to two main French think tanks:

IFRI, Subsaharian African issues (English version)
http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail_research_center&id=1

IRIS, African issues (English version)
http://www.iris-france.org/en/aires-recherche/afrique.php

If you will be assigned in Mali, basically you have to speak French. Just like I, I have to speak English to work in East and Southern Africa. Just don’t assume that Malians will speak English.
If you need more specific oriented docs in French mostly, just contact me, I may help.

Commando Spirit
12-16-2009, 10:32 AM
As with other areas on SWJ, your advice is hugely appreciated; many thanks.

CS

davidbfpo
12-19-2009, 01:40 PM
I mentioned the crashed jet with cocaine aboard and now this BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8422010.stm


A court in the US has for the first time charged suspected members of al-Qaeda with plotting to traffic cocaine in order to fund terrorism. (later on)..The informant claimed in secretly taped conversations that the FARC were looking for a secure means of smuggling drugs through western and northern Africa on the way to Europe.

The crime-terror nexus so beloved by some analysts. There are US newspaper reports too, on today's SWJ news round up.

davidbfpo
01-20-2010, 05:18 PM
Try this article: http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2009/12/blood-in-the-sand/ by a UK reporter who works the region and has his own website: http://simanowitz.ning.com/ (Mali is not the focus, but Western Sahara).

James Phelan
01-23-2010, 02:54 AM
I have spoken with a few people who think that the FARC connection is strongest in Guinea-Bissau. I was there over the summer- little to no government control of the hundreds of small islands off the coast and a corrupt military with more officers than enlisted- bad recipe. When the chief of the military in GB, Tagme, was assassinated last spring he was killed by a bomb, more typical of a FARC like operation that what was seen in GB before. A few AQ linked people were arrested there for the murder of French tourists in Mauritania. Overall, I think the AQ connection is pretty weak in West Africa in general- one of those cases where they put up the flag and we throw millions of dollars away. The drug connection is another story however with the decline of the dollar relative to the euro.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L19487497.htm

davidbfpo
02-23-2010, 09:29 PM
A commentary:http://www.globalpost.com/print/5526099 and the summary:
If Mali doesn't get its act together and combat terrorism, years of good governance could give way to a hotbed of extremism.

Nothing new, I'd call this another attempt to publicly pressurise the Mali state.

davidbfpo
02-25-2010, 11:25 PM
The BBC:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8533195.stm


A French hostage who was being held by al-Qaeda's North African wing in Mali has been freed days after four militants were released from jail. The group had threatened to kill Pierre Camatte, abducted from a hotel near the border with Niger on 25 November, if its four members were not set free. Mali's authorities said the four had served their sentences and were due to be freed.
But their release sparked outrage in Algeria and Mauritania.

French President Sarkozy meets French ex-hostage in Mali:http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE61O01G20100225

davidbfpo
03-10-2010, 08:07 PM
A Spanish woman kidnapped in West Africa last year has been freed, the Spanish government says.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8559985.stm

davidbfpo
03-20-2010, 09:00 PM
Apparently Mali's cotton growers are the most productive growers there are and their main competition comes from state subsidised US cotton farmers. Cited as an example of 'double standards' when the West meets the Muslim world and even featured in WTO discussions. Clue from a Swiss diplomat this week when speaking in London.

davidbfpo
04-18-2010, 08:02 PM
BBC report on a matter not captured here before:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8626306.stm

davidbfpo
04-21-2010, 07:52 PM
BBC reports:
Four Saharan desert states are to open a joint command headquarters in Algeria to co-ordinate efforts to counter the growing regional threat from al-Qaeda. The Joint Military Staff Committee of Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and Niger will be based in Tamanrasset (Algeria).

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8633851.stm

Now will AFRICOM have a relationship with this effort?

davidbfpo
06-06-2010, 02:35 PM
An update on the situation in the Sahel, with the focal point being Mali, where the crime-terror links is reported as thriving - drugs and kidnapping - with AQIM cooperating with local tribes: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/06/06/world/AP-AF-Sahara-Al-Qaida-Franchise.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=world

davidbfpo
06-18-2010, 08:56 PM
For two (unread) papers on AQIM, hat tip to the website too:http://www.jihadica.com/new-aqim-reports/#comments

davidbfpo
07-23-2010, 10:52 PM
From the BBC:
France has confirmed it took part in a raid against alleged al-Qaeda militants alongside Mauritanian troops.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-10738467

M-A Lagrange
07-26-2010, 09:56 AM
After 2 unsuccessful operations in sahara by the mauritanian and french special forces to liberate the French hostage (78 years old with heart problems) at the Mali border, AQ in Magreb annonce his execution.

Otage d'Al-Qaïda: Nicolas Sarkozy confirme la mort de Michel Germaneau
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/3/20100726/twl-france-niger-otage-al-qaida-sarkozy-1be00ca.html
(sorry the link is in French but I believe you can find links in english)

Some are wondering if there is a change in French doctrine on hostage management. I believe there is a change of doctrine in the hostage taker (a change of nature) rather than a change of French doctrine.
AQ in Magreb has shown how courageous they are: they take hostage an old man with heart disease and treated him like ####.
But the problematic remains and is expending in this part of Africa.

davidbfpo
07-27-2010, 03:27 PM
From the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-10765891

Opens with:
Islamist militants in the Sahara Desert are exploiting differences between neighbouring countries to continue to roam around the lawless region unhindered.

The killing of French hostage Michel Germaneau by al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the continued threat to other hostages still being held, has cast these differences into sharp relief.

SlimRickins
07-31-2010, 12:04 PM
from what i've been reading and hearing Western Africa is the next global hot spot.

fnord
08-05-2010, 02:40 PM
Moderator's Note: A lengthy article looking at the recent operation and originally posted on an un-related thread and moved here.

The french are active in the Sohel...

http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/08/01/re-franco-mauritanian-aqim-raid/

davidbfpo
08-21-2010, 07:18 PM
An interesting report on how feuding hinders the 'struggle':http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36764&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=49c037ace5

On Mali:
Mali is still struggling with a simmering Tuareg insurgency in its vast and poorly controlled northern region. Colonel Hassan Ag Fagaga, a noted Tuareg rebel, has threatened to resume the insurgency if the government does not implement the terms of the 2008 Algiers Accord (El Khabar, July 15). Colonel Ag Fagaga brought 400 Tuareg fighters in for integration with Mali’s armed forces in 2009. He has already deserted twice to join the Tuareg rebels in the north. Al-Qaeda has tried to ingratiate itself with the disaffected Tuareg of northern Mali but has had only marginal success. Some former rebels have even offered to form Tuareg counterterrorist units to expel the mostly Arab al-Qaeda group from the region.

davidbfpo
08-24-2010, 11:46 AM
Thanks to SWJ Blog a NYT story on the release of two Spanish hostages held for nine months:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/world/europe/24iht-spain.html?ref=world

The last two paragraphs refer to Mali:
The release of the two Spanish hostages, meanwhile, followed an agreement by Mauritania to extradite to Mali a man convicted by a Mauritanian court in July for his role in the kidnapping of the Spaniards. The Malian citizen, known as Omar the Saharan, was allegedly the mastermind of the abduction and had received a 12-year prison sentence.

Mr. Zapatero thanked Spanish diplomatic and secret services for helping secure the release. But he provided no further insight on Monday on the link between the Malian extradition and the release of the hostages.

davidbfpo
08-25-2010, 06:39 AM
Not an unexpected allegation:
The Spanish government paid al-Qaeda terrorists £5.6 million to free two Spanish aid workers in North Africa after a nine-month kidnapping ordeal, according to reports.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/7962305/Spanish-paid-al-Qaeda-terrorists-5.6m-to-free-two-hostages.html

davidbfpo
12-11-2010, 09:37 PM
Caught on FP Blog in a commentary on Wikileaks:
Is it possible to honestly engage these publics on cooperation with U.S. counterterrorism efforts? When I was in Mali in 2007, I was told that President Amadou Toumani Toure had publicly acknowledged the presence of a handful of American forces hunting for al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and that the forces had even been featured, positively, on local television. This was possible because Mali was a democracy, because citizens genuinely feared Islamist extremism, and because the United States is much more popular in West Africa than in the Arab world. It will, of course, be much harder to make the case in places where the United States is feared and loathed.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/10/the_sunshine_policy?page=0,1

M-A Lagrange
01-10-2011, 05:08 PM
France says Niger Frenchmen 'killed in cold blood'
The two men, both 25, were abducted by four gunmen from a restaurant in the capital Niamey on Friday night.
Mr Fillon has suggested they were murdered as the attempted rescue took place the following day.
"The hostage-takers, seeing they were pursued, killed the hostages in cold blood, according to the first elements in my possession," he said.
But a senior Niger military official told Reuters news agency that the bodies were found away from the scene of the clash, implying that they were probably "executed" before the rescue mission.
Relatives have reportedly asked to see the bodies.
French anti-terror police have already arrived in Niger to investigate the deaths.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12150652

It is the second time that AQMI members choose to assassinate their hostages (at least French ones) rather than turning them.
Hopefully, the perpetrators have been severely damaged to quote a French military source.

Jedburgh
01-10-2011, 11:34 PM
SWP, 1 Jan 11: Organized Crime and Terrorism in the Sahel: Drivers, Actors, Options (http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2011C01_lac_ks.pdf)

The dimensions of organized criminal activity in the Sahel region have fundamentally changed in recent years. As profits from cocaine smuggling and abductions of foreign nationals increase substantially, criminal networks are expanding their influence, eroding both the rule of law and existing social structures. The growing presence (http://concernedafricascholars.org/docs/bulletin85harmon.pdf) of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) should equally be seen in the context of the developing criminal networks. Attempts to counter this trend by boosting the capacities of regional states in the security sector have failed to address the real problems. The EU and Germany should encourage greater regional cooperation. Key states are Algeria, which claims regional leadership, and Mali (http://concernedafricascholars.org/bulletin/85/prashad/), which has yet to begin tackling organized crime.....

davidbfpo
02-14-2011, 10:08 PM
Not strictly on Mali, but this thread has covered stories on the drugs and terror links.

A short BBC report on US nationals accused in Liberia:
Seven people, including two Americans, have been charged with conspiring to aid the Afghan Taliban by selling the militant group weapons and moving drugs through West Africa, US officials say.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12460236

davidbfpo
03-25-2011, 10:26 PM
An interesting analysis of AQIM and how it has made itself at home in the barren parts of the Sahel, in Niger and Mali:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/yvan-guichaoua/genesis-of-terrorism-in-sahara-al-qaeda-in-islamic-maghreb?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=201210&utm_campaign=0

As AQIM activities appear to revolve around kidnapping the last sentence is telling:
The criminalisation of the Sahel’s political economy might cause more enduring damage than the Jihad.

davidbfpo
04-20-2011, 11:52 AM
The author of the previous article is back:
Yvan Guichaoua, West Africa expert researching non-government armed groups, describes what kind of force Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb is, what motivates its members and what are the conditions of its success. Smuggling, fast cars, and the economics of ransoms combine with ideology to create a threat.

Podcast - forty minutes - and yet to be listened to:http://www.opendemocracy.net/yvan-guichaoua-tony-curzon-price/audio-what-sort-of-organisation-is-al-qaida-in-islamic-maghreb?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=201210&utm_campaign=Nightly_2011-04-20%2005%3a30

davidbfpo
05-20-2011, 02:05 PM
An IISS Strategic Comment:
Could West Africa follow Mexico's path into drugs and gang-fuelled violence? The question sounds alarmist, but has concerned international law-enforcement agencies in recent years, as countries such as Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Ghana, Benin and Nigeria have emerged as major transhipment points for the global trade in cocaine and heroin. With the business increasingly a destabilising force in West Africa, G8 ministers meeting in Deauville next week will discuss a new initiative to tackle it.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/may/west-africas-cocaine-coast/

An indication of the scale of the cocaine trade comes from:
Burkina Faso's customs agency destroys more than 100 tonnes of cocaine every year, but this is believed to represent only a small fraction of the drugs circulating the country.

Burkina Faso is the third least developed countries in the world:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burkina_Faso

ganulv
05-20-2011, 09:46 PM
I’ve avoided participating in this forum after a number of my previous postings involved a high posturing to information exchange ratio but since this involves Burkina I’ll bite. I may well end up regretting it, but here goes.

How I know: My better half likely knows more about Burkina Faso than any American citizen who does not hold a security clearance. I spent five weeks with her there last summer (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/collections/72157624544582204/), mostly in Bobo (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/sets/72157624491957594/) with a few days immediately after arrival and prior to departure in Ouaga (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/sets/72157624328592997/). I also read a lot.

In my short time there I observed nothing that looked like evidence of any domestic drug trade. On the one hand, why should I given my horrible French and the briefness of my visit. On the other hand, I have some knowledge of how drug dealing works at the street level (if anyone is dying to know how I came about that knowledge PM me) and I didn’t see any signs of it. Mind you, this is almost all in Bobo. I did see some prostitutes during my few days in Ouaga so the crime situation there is almost certainly different.

But as the linked article points out, you have to go through Burkina (http://mapper.acme.com/?ll=10.61742,4.92188&z=6&t=H) if you want to get anything that came off a ship in Ghana to Mali without a (more) circuitous route so a traffic in cocaine is plausible. I was in on a couple of conversations with Burkinabé regarding the mechanics of stealing, shipping, and fencing stolen scooters. Can’t recall the particulars, and all it proves is that there are criminal networks in the region, not that they are moving drugs and/or affiliated to international terror networks. But it does go to plausibility.

I don’t know more than the average man in the street about al-Qaeda—actually, and rather distressingly given al-Qaeda’s prominence in American political discourse, I know far more than the average man in the street about al-Qaeda, I just know very little indeed—nor do I know much about how intelligence work is done, but I have to wonder if any supposed chatter about al-Qaeda in the Sahel isn’t from time to time put into circulation by private firms looking to hire out to the U.S. Government rather than from federal employees.* Burkina Faso does have a tiny military, but outside of Ouaga it is the kind of place where everyone knows everyone else and a non-West African African would stick out, not to mention someone from anywhere else. Which is to say that even a black Yemeni can’t expect to blend in there.† Anecdotally, there does seem to be some surveillance for international terror types. I spent a few hours of one afternoon in successive army and gendarme custody after trespassing onto a military base (but really, when there are no fences or signs (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/4838467667/) how are foreigners supposed to know? as the gendarme pointed out to the sergeant who hauled me to the gendarmerie, right before adding, “Like I say every time you bring another one down here.”). After the incident one of my Burkinabé friends said words to the effect of “You never had anything to worry about. Now, if you had been an Arab…” While reading up prior to my visit I found a couple of blurbs about an international military training in Ouaga (http://www.ikd-m.africom.mil/getArticleFresh.asp?art=4406&lang=0) a couple of months prior to my arrival which I would assume implies a continued U.S. engagement with Burkinabé security forces at some level.

All of the above should be viewed in light of the face that I was in Burkina Faso prior to the winter and spring military and political changes in fortune in Côte d'Ivoire and the recent unrest in Burkina itself.

*I’m not implying any nasty corporate intrigue. But someone looking to pick up a federal contract might from time to time give a talk or interview suggesting this or that with the knowledge that it is going to be picked up in some form by a journalist on a deadline.

†I am not saying there (are or) are not real concerns regarding an al-Qaeda presence in Burkina Faso. I mean, if I were in a position to know that why would I be discussing it on this forum? I’m just saying that any suggestions regarding terror networks in Burkina needs to be viewed in light of certain constraints.

bourbon
05-23-2011, 04:21 PM
In my short time there I observed nothing that looked like evidence of any domestic drug trade. On the one hand, why should I given my horrible French and the briefness of my visit. On the other hand, I have some knowledge of how drug dealing works at the street level (if anyone is dying to know how I came about that knowledge PM me) and I didn’t see any signs of it. Mind you, this is almost all in Bobo. I did see some prostitutes during my few days in Ouaga so the crime situation there is almost certainly different.

But as the linked article points out, you have to go through Burkina (http://mapper.acme.com/?ll=10.61742,4.92188&z=6&t=H) if you want to get anything that came off a ship in Ghana to Mali without a (more) circuitous route so a traffic in cocaine is plausible. I was in on a couple of conversations with Burkinabé regarding the mechanics of stealing, shipping, and fencing stolen scooters. Can’t recall the particulars, and all it proves is that there are criminal networks in the region, not that they are moving drugs and/or affiliated to international terror networks. But it does go to plausibility.
Interesting.

Trafficking on this level will spread its tentacles into the power structures of a nation. The big money is in the transshipment to Europe. Domestic markets for cocaine and opiates, or lack thereof, may be a clue into the nature of the trade.

The domestic consumer market for cocaine and heroin in Mexico during the 80’s and 90’s was much smaller than it is today. Basically there was a system and there were rules; if you open a kilo in Mexico, you die. The current violence in Mexico is attributable in part to the collapse of this system in the late-90s and early-2000s.

Stan
05-23-2011, 06:21 PM
In my short time there I observed nothing that looked like evidence of any domestic drug trade.

I certainly don't want you regretting your post herein, but do have some comments.

Burkina was once famous for trafficking in people and all the ideal circumstances that promote and harness organized crime still exist there.

I don't doubt you know what a multimillion dollar drug transit point looks like, but I do doubt that in your brief stay you stumbled across the king pins by conversing in French with the locals.

As far as the incident with the gendarme goes, all he probably wanted from you was 5 bucks and you would have been well on your way.

ganulv
05-24-2011, 01:55 AM
I don't doubt you know what a multimillion dollar drug transit point looks like, but I do doubt that in your brief stay you stumbled across the king pins by conversing in French with the locals.

I actually don’t. Almost all of my first hand with the drug trade is at the street level. My French is ####e even if that is something anyone would talk about with a stranger. I just mean I didn’t observe any tell-tale signs in Bobo. Ave. Nkrumah in Ouaga had a different feel, though I didn’t develop any real sense of the place.


Trafficking on this level will spread its tentacles into the power structures of a nation.

That stands to reason but I just didn’t see it in Bobo. Might have had something to do with the tension in Côte d'Ivoire cutting off a corridor?


As far as the incident with the gendarme goes, all he probably wanted from you was 5 bucks and you would have been well on your way.

Nah, though I originally assumed I was going to come out of the whole ordeal a digital camera (that was never going to make it to an evidence locker) shorter I changed hands far too many times and too many folks laid eyes on me. The gendarme who ended up clearing me was incredibly easy to deal with and actually and amazingly cut his boss short a couple of times on my behalf.

ganulv
06-05-2011, 06:54 PM
Trafficking on this level will spread its tentacles into the power structures of a nation. The big money is in the transshipment to Europe. Domestic markets for cocaine and opiates, or lack thereof, may be a clue into the nature of the trade.

Your comment came to mind while listen to an NPR piece (http://www.npr.org/2011/06/05/136972470/report-blasts-warn-on-drugs) today—the particularly relevant bit begins around 2:10.

bourbon
06-11-2011, 09:00 PM
Your comment came to mind while listen to an NPR piece (http://www.npr.org/2011/06/05/136972470/report-blasts-warn-on-drugs) today—the particularly relevant bit begins around 2:10.
It is an issue that is really in need of greater study. The best material I have read was by a French NGO called Geopolitical Drugs Watch (Observatoire Geopolitique des Drogues) that in the 1990’s would publish an annual report called “The World Geopolitics of Drugs”. I think they were tied to either the French government or the EU, but they got their funding pulled and were shut down.

ocnus
06-13-2011, 08:43 AM
Blaise Campaore is a major figure in the drugs business. See:

http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Editorial_10/The-Imp-of-the-Perverse.shtml

Stan
06-13-2011, 06:32 PM
Blaise Campaore is a major figure in the drugs business. See:

http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Editorial_10/The-Imp-of-the-Perverse.shtml

While I don't completely agree with all the "Al Qaida in the blood diamond business" as there is more than sufficient evidence that they were all but last to discover what we did in the 60s on the Dark Continent, I do agree with some of your sentiments below:


Words cannot express the utter stupidity and self-destructiveness of US policy in allying itself to the rabble of Ouattara and his friends. What government in Africa will ever trust or deal openly with such a maniacal formulation of national interest on the part of the US.


The USG is culturally challenged and refuses to use or even consult with her military leaders. Trust is not a word used in Africa (anywhere).


The US is at war in Africa. To win, or survive, requires helping one's friends and punishing one's enemies. What imp of the perverse can have gotten things so wrong; and so often?

I disagree. We are not at war in Africa. We are chasing purported Al Qaida at the whim and will of our administration. We reported on these so-called blood diamonds over two decades ago and even then, no one was listening. I'm of the opinion we cannot determine our friends and enemies in Africa because we have neither and our administration is culturally challenged.

Bill Moore
06-27-2011, 06:09 AM
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/06/201162551224429787.html


The Mauritanian army has launched an attack on an al-Qaeda training camp in neighbouring Mali and "completely destroyed" it, a Mauritanian security source said.

Friday's assault in the forest region of Wagadou in western Mali involved air strikes, the unnamed source told the AFP news agency, adding that the "terrorists" struck back with "heavy arms".

Subsequent reporting states 15 terrorists dead and along with two Mauitanian soldiers.

This is how the war on terror should be fought, we don't need to send U.S. Army Divisions to occupy nations to fight terrorists.

Rex Brynen
06-27-2011, 06:30 AM
This is how the war on terror should be fought, we don't need to send U.S. Army Divisions to occupy nations to fight terrorists.

Since Mauritania doesn't have any combat aircraft (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Mauritania), I wonder who did the airstrikes... :D

Bill Moore
06-27-2011, 07:33 AM
I suspect the French or the U.S., both have been active in the region.

Obviously plenty of NATO aircraft available over Libya that could have been re-missioned :D

davidbfpo
08-12-2011, 03:58 PM
Within a longer article on the DEA and CT:
Liberia's narcotics- and law-enforcement-assistance package from the State Department has jumped from $800,000 in 2007 to a requested $17 million for 2011, a more than 2,000% increase.

Link:http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2087220-2,00.html

davidbfpo
11-25-2011, 09:46 PM
An armed gang of kidnappers has abducted three tourists and killed a fourth in the city of Timbuktu in northern Mali, security sources said....

On Thursday, two French geologists were kidnapped by an armed gang in the eastern village of Hombori.

Links:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15895908 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15877709

Unclear what the motives are, notably if an act of terrorism and some distance between the two places.

Chowing
12-05-2011, 05:25 PM
Moderator's Note

Copied here from the AQ in Africa rebirth thread and edited down to the Mali aspects.

In an Associated Press article out today we can see that AQIM has recognized the need to aid the poor locals to gain their hearts and minds.


With almost no resistance, al-Qaida has implanted itself in Africa's soft tissue, choosing as its host one of the poorest nations on earth. The terrorist group has create a refuge in this remote land through a strategy of winning hearts and minds, described in rare detail by seven locals in regular contact with the cell. The villagers agreed to speak for the first time to an Associated Press team in the "red zone," deemed by most embassies to be too dangerous for foreigners to visit.

Link:http://www.newser.com/article/d9rdg0u01/gifts-of-cash-baby-clothes-medicine-al-qaida-uses-hearts-and-minds-approach-in-africa.html

The world's poor are a easy target for terrorists to recruit and gain their confidence. The world, not necessarily governments only, must reach out to help, listen to and walk alongside the poor or there will be much unrest ahead.

I remember Robert Kaplan of the Atlantic Monthly predicting anarchy in West Africa back in 1994...see article http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/4670/ What we may be seeing is a second wave of the anarchy with the same, unsolved poverty issues driving it.

davidbfpo
12-20-2011, 05:38 PM
Given that other, non-African nations have taken to wandering around the Sahel this is the first report I've seen on Algeria troops being in Mali:
Algerian troops have crossed into Mali to help government forces combat groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda, officials and witnesses told AFP Tuesday.

"Algerian troops are currently stationed in northern Mali to assist the Malian army in the fight against terrorism," a high-ranking military official said. e would not divulge the number of Algerian troops now based in Mali nor the expected length of their stay.

"We know there is a team of instructors of at least 15, including officers," a diplomatic source said, also on condition of anonymity.

Link:http://news.yahoo.com/algerian-troops-mali-combat-qaeda-groups-004232846.html;_ylt=AsbFu4dJLLYApw3BIaxJ0_G96Q8F;_ ylu=X3oDMTQ0aW9pbzZtBG1pdANUb3BTdG9yeSBXb3JsZFNGIE

davidbfpo
01-20-2012, 02:05 PM
Reportedly the result of Tuareg mercenaries coming home from Libya and I note a new group calling for independence:
the newly formed National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NLMA)

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16643507

Chowing
01-20-2012, 06:43 PM
Reportedly the result of Tuareg mercenaries coming home from Libya and I note a new group calling for independence:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16643507

The returned mercenaries and arms are bound to cause problems for the Sahel region for some time.

davidbfpo
02-02-2012, 03:09 PM
Stratfor have a free access article The Tuaregs: From African Nomads to Smugglers and Mercenaries. Nothing startling, but a good, short overview. Clearly Mali is one of the Sahel countries to be affected, so will Niger.

Link:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/tuaregs-african-nomads-smugglers-and-mercenaries

J Wolfsberger
03-22-2012, 12:43 PM
From the Wall Street Journal: Mali Troops Stage Coup (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577296842561157110.html?m od=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth#articleTabs%3 Darticle)

Apparently a reaction to ineffective government response to the Tuareg uprising in the north, and possibly a reaction to peace talks (http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2012/03/07/feature-02).

More info here (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-mali-army-idUSBRE82L09C20120322).

Didn't the U.S. Africom have a training mission there a few years ago?

KingJaja
03-22-2012, 01:26 PM
I pointed this out earlier - the severe limitations of an "AFRICOM" led approach to fighting terrorism.

A few salient points.

1. The Tauregs yearn for an independent homeland.
2. Many armed Tauregs are moving down south in the wake of Gaddafi's ouster.
3. This results in a better armed opposition against the the Malian military.
4. Malian troops (although AFRICOM trained) were not well paid or well compensated - this triggered a set of riots by the widows of Malian troops killed by the Tauregs.
5. The coup is a result of a set of very complex events.
6. AFRICOM will find it difficult to operate effectively here and the US stands to risk of inserting itself into the internal politics of a sovereign state if it sticks its neck in too much.
7. Al Qaeda loves to exploit these kind of situations.

Stan
03-22-2012, 03:52 PM
Didn't the U.S. Africom have a training mission there a few years ago?

Hey John !
Where to begin ? I'll start with a hopeful second to Slapout's desire to have the SWC 2012 quote of the year award:

Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.

About 3 years ago the President of Mali was unable to abscond with funds for development and pledged a total struggle against AQIM (that, as you and I know got him the POTUS' blessings and OUR cash). He also declared, in the same sentence, that his troops were not equipped nor trained for the counter terrorism task at hand (that he picked and decided to perform).

Enter AFRICOM :rolleyes:

I think we are around 6 million in the hole now (of the 20 M granted for the Sahel). Even AID came up with millions to rewrite history and disseminate US views on radio stations (talk about PSYOPS - civilian style). :D

So, what went wrong - where'd we fail ?

1. The Malian army used their skills and equipment against their own people (go figure). In theory we were to reduce the terrorist threat. This is barely nothing new for the region and someone back in DC should be shot for being ignorant of a 50-year long historical catastrophe and waste of money.

2. Then there's the pathetic belief that AFRICOM is screwing around in a generally peaceful and stable country (despite its history and failed military interventions in other African countries).

3. Our miscalculating where that developmental aid actually goes when governed by military -- benefiting only the military and politicians in said country, while the local population continues to starve.

4. Our involvement could cause resentment (locals misinterpreting our intentions (get all their oil and skedaddle).

5. In conclusion, the US Military are not a humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag. The AID agencies know far better how to abscond with funds and diddle about for centuries with no visible sign of progress. We should start by contacting our congress and senate and have them all committed for atrocities now and in the future :eek:

JMA
03-22-2012, 04:06 PM
Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.

Stan, this is going to be repeated how many times before the US wises up?

JMA
03-22-2012, 04:07 PM
The Tauregs yearn for an independent homeland.

...and why shouldn't they?

Stan
03-22-2012, 04:16 PM
Stan, this is going to be repeated how many times before the US wises up?

Mark, Is this a trick question? I won't be alive that long to provide you with that answer :D

My fall back position then is ...


We should start by contacting our congress and senate and have them all committed for atrocities now and in the future

JMA
03-22-2012, 04:31 PM
My fall back position then is ... "We should start by contacting our congress and senate and have them all committed for atrocities now and in the future"

The answer is for the US to sign the International Criminal Court (ICC) protocols and then sit back and let justice take its course ;)

J Wolfsberger
03-22-2012, 04:54 PM
Stan,

...

5. In conclusion, the US Military are not a humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag. The AID agencies know far better how to abscond with funds and diddle about for centuries with no visible sign of progress. We should start by contacting our congress and senate and have them all committed for atrocities now and in the future :eek:

As best I recall a quote from a South African journalist sometime in the late 1970s or early 1980s, "There is nothing quite so frightening as an American politician is search of a quick fix to someone else's problem." I think "American" and "politician" restrict the applicability too much.

This seems like another good opportunity for us to let other people work out their differences on their own.

(As for the contribution any of our prior activities might have made to the current situation, 'when you find yourself in a hole, the first step in fixing it is to stop digging.')

KingJaja
03-22-2012, 05:09 PM
...and why shouldn't they?

It is a legitimate aim (just like the Kurds), but it will result in the splitting of a couple of nations (Mali, Burkina Faso etc).

That is one of the problems of the political structure of the African continent - a lot of split ethnic groups. However France (who really matters here) wants none of that, so it continues.

KingJaja
03-22-2012, 05:10 PM
Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.


Is AFRICOM still training the Congolese Army?

Stan
03-22-2012, 05:28 PM
Is AFRICOM still training the Congolese Army?

Hey Jaja !
Well, if you wish to word it that way, yes, they are still training there.

In reality, elements of the US Military are training Congolese soldiers, not staff members from AFRICOM.

While I get where you are coming from (especially based on my post above), there are instances or training that does not necessarily adversely affect the local population. Such as humanitarian demining (http://maic.jmu.edu/journal/15.3/notes/mccarty/mccarty.htm).

There are probably more good examples, but success stories from the DRC are few and far between :confused:

Uboat509
03-22-2012, 05:30 PM
...and why shouldn't they?

Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

Stan
03-22-2012, 05:47 PM
More from the front lines...


Our correspondent (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17474946) says it is possible that the coup may falter, pointing out that the mutinous troops are poorly equipped, led by a mid-ranking soldier and they do not have the backing of all Malian forces.

The well-trained and organized Red Berets unit is loyal to the president and he is believed to be under their protection, our reporter says.

If those officers decide to push back, they could perhaps overturn the coup, he says.

KingJaja
03-22-2012, 07:18 PM
Even if the coup falters, it will have an adverse impact on the Malian army. Coups led by senior officers tend to leave the command structure intact. Junior officers coups, on the other hand, tend to destroy the structure of the army.

If ATT quells this coup, he'll have to restructure the army.

All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

J Wolfsberger
03-22-2012, 07:47 PM
All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

KingJaja
03-22-2012, 08:26 PM
From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

A little of both.

Nigerian Christianity wasn't an American "word of faith" style thing thirty years ago, it is today. You couldn't get a Nigerian Muslim to do suicide bombing ten years ago, you can today.

Have you heard about Usman Dan Fodio? The Fulani weren't particularly known for piety in Northern Nigeria until he came around 200 years ago. (They aren't that well known for piety outside Nigeria - they are the "Jallows" and the "Diallos" )

Circumstances change, people change. After seeing the rapid pace of change in Africa over my short lifetime, I believe that anything is possible.

davidbfpo
03-22-2012, 09:48 PM
The BBC have a reporter in Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17474946

A BBC analyst adds some context in 'Gaddafi's influence in Mali's coup':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17481114

JMA
03-23-2012, 06:26 AM
It is a legitimate aim (just like the Kurds), but it will result in the splitting of a couple of nations (Mali, Burkina Faso etc).

That is one of the problems of the political structure of the African continent - a lot of split ethnic groups. However France (who really matters here) wants none of that, so it continues.

Its funny isn't it. We have African leaders bleating over the problems caused through colonial imposed boundaries... but are then prepared to maintain them through war if necessary.

We have had post colonial boundaries changed for Eritrea and South Sudan... while there should have been more than 100 adjustments by now.

Failing to recognise the aspirations of minorities is a recipe for disaster (especially if there is a mischievous neighbour willing to sow the seeds of discontent, supply weapons and sanctuary).

KingJaja
03-23-2012, 07:09 AM
Its funny isn't it. We have African leaders bleating over the problems caused through colonial imposed boundaries... but are then prepared to maintain them through war if necessary.

If there is oil/possibility of oil within those boundaries then they are motivated to keep the boundaries. That's Nigeria's problem. As soon as the oil runs dry, everyone is out.

Dayuhan
03-23-2012, 08:38 AM
The legacy of colonial boundaries has created all manner of mess, but going out and trying to preemptively adjust them would create even more mess... and who would do it?

There have been adjustments, and there will continue to be, as the people involved force them to happen. They will continue to be very messy, and they will likely go on a long time.

JMA
03-23-2012, 10:23 AM
Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

I don't want to question your sources, or your reading of the local situation as I don't know what exposure you had in Mali... I have none. I would suggest that as a general comment the 'research' carried out by foreigners before forming an opinion is 99% too limited and as such leads to incorrect conclusions being drawn.

(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

JMA
03-23-2012, 10:26 AM
The legacy of colonial boundaries has created all manner of mess, but going out and trying to preemptively adjust them would create even more mess... and who would do it?

Dah... the countries who keep whining about the colonial legacy.

PS: certainly not the US.

KingJaja
03-23-2012, 10:49 AM
There isn't such a thing as a "homogeneous" ethnic group anywhere in Africa. (I should know, I belong to one).

As to the boundaries, they will be adjusted and that will happen - watch what will happen to Africa when the French finally pull out.

Stan
03-23-2012, 02:08 PM
(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves :D
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about :eek:

Uboat509
03-23-2012, 04:26 PM
And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?


In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.



If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

KingJaja
03-23-2012, 06:39 PM
This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.


BAMAKO (Reuters) - Bread and fuel ran low in Mali's capital Bamako on Friday as mutineering soldiers looted petrol stations and shops and hijacked cars, residents said, while coup leaders sought to consolidate their grip on power.

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

But Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, aiming to capitalise on the confusion in the distant capital, pushed south to occupy positions abandoned by government forces, sources said.

Captain Amadou Sanogo, the head of a body set up by the mutineers, suggested on Thursday that soldiers were trying to arrest Toure.

The president's whereabouts were unknown, though unconfirmed reports said he was being protected by loyalist troops in the city.

Despite Sanogo's calls to the soldiers to stop pillaging and respect private property, residents said looting was continuing and had caused shortages while fuel prices have doubled to over 1,300 CFA francs a litre in about 24 hours.

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

Around the city, most shops, petrol stations and businesses were closed while some residents ventured out in search of bread and petrol.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE82M00R20120323?sp=true

Chowing
03-23-2012, 07:40 PM
BH has a huge support base in Kano. Is it possible for BH and AQIM to operate in the same city without both organisations comparing notes? It seems highly unlikely.

In my humble opinion, this is the surest sign that BH and AQIM are collaborating. The timing is striking - a few days after BH mounted its most spectacular show of force, a german engineer was kidnapped, in the same town.

AQIM is extending its reach throughout West Africa. Both BH and AQIM have everything to gain from this linkage. The Nigerian people have a lot to loose by it.

AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia. They were so well armed that the Malian military was unable to make any headway against them. The military says they were not properly resourced by the Toure's government in Bamako so they stood little chance of defeating the separatist rebels. That, at least in their statements, is the reason for the coup in Mali.

I realize it is difficult to make comparisons between any two situations in the world, yet I cannot help but wonder if the Nigerian military and police feel under resourced by Goodluck Jonathan? How angry are they at being a frequent target of BH, yet seeming impotent to put BH to flight? Surely some have paid attention to what has happened in Mali.

The Nigerian president has far too much support in the south for any security forces to take action against him. However, will the time come when the police say, enough is enough, we cannot carry on with such a lack of resources and simply walk away or go on strike.

Chowing
03-23-2012, 07:47 PM
There isn't such a thing as a "homogeneous" ethnic group anywhere in Africa. (I should know, I belong to one).

As to the boundaries, they will be adjusted and that will happen - watch what will happen to Africa when the French finally pull out.

You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.

The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.

And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.

davidbfpo
03-23-2012, 08:40 PM
Chowing commented:
AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia.

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

Stan
03-23-2012, 08:40 PM
This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

Sadly, now set back several decades. This sounds like just about every upheaval I've had the pleasure of witnessing.

It's one thing to say you're doing it for your people and country...


The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

And, it's entirely another to perform this, with the general consent and participation of the population...


"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

This would be more to be concerned about and just where it's heading after Mali


flooded with men and weapons after Libya's civil war

Dayuhan
03-23-2012, 09:24 PM
Dah... the countries who keep whining about the colonial legacy.

Exactly... meaning it will happen gradually, messily, and as required, usually when an intractable civil war forces it. It won't be preemptive: countries aren't going to rearrange their borders or divide themselves to prevent violence, they do it when violence reaches a level that makes it impossible to do anything else.

Even where there's broad agreement that colonial-era borders are a disastrous legacy, there are all kinds of wildly different ideas of what adjustments are needed, usually driven more by perceived self-interest than by a desire to prevent violence. One more thing to fight over.

KingJaja
03-23-2012, 09:36 PM
You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.

The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.

And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.

In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/01/09/weekinreview/09sudan-map/09sudan-map-custom1.jpg

On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

Dayuhan
03-23-2012, 11:07 PM
So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

"Linked to AQIM" is a phrase that needs to be approached with a lot of wariness and a lot of skepticism. Of course there are all kinds of "links" between and among numerous groups, but governments and rival groups will inevitably exaggerate and distort links to AQIM in an effort to get the US to start shelling out. Nobody's forgotten the days when shouting "communists" opened the US treasury, and people will be trying to see if the word "terrorist" has the same magical effect.

JMA
03-24-2012, 09:12 AM
In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:

[snip] to save space

On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

Very, very broad.

Take the case of 'little' Malawi for instance. (from here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malawi#Demographics))


Malawi's population is made up of the Chewa, Nyanja, Tumbuka, Yao, Lomwe, Sena, Tonga, Ngoni and Ngonde native ethnic groups, as well as populations of Asians and Europeans. Major languages include Chichewa, an official language spoken by over 57% of the population, Chinyanja (12.8%), Chiyao (10.1%) and Chitumbuka (9.5%).

Other native languages are Malawian Lomwe, spoken by around 250,000 in the southeast of the country; Kokola, spoken by around 200,000 people also in the southeast; Lambya, spoken by around 45,000 in the northwestern tip; Ndali, spoken by around 70,000; Nyakyusa-Ngonde, spoken by around 300,000 in northern Malawi; Malawian Sena, spoken by around 270,000 in southern Malawi; and Tonga, spoken by around 170,000 in the north.

There remains significant ethnic 'awareness' in Malawi which is reflected in voting patterns to this day.

The smaller groups within Malawi are often found in larger number just across the border. Inside the country their areas are often fairly accurately demarcated by 'district' boundaries.

If there was the will...

JMA
03-24-2012, 09:22 AM
The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

Yes probably.

The key issue here is that they will have logistics and supply problems for the weapons/equipment/vehicles they brought back from Libya.

A good field commander would tempt them to move around and fire off as much ammunition as possible until they run short or the vehicles break. (Their accuracy is not likely to be good, but the big bangs of HE are likely to scare the hell out of the rag-tag Malian army)

Then with a level playing field they close in for the kill...

JMA
03-24-2012, 10:55 AM
My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

I don't want to get into a back and forth with you over this but I need to comment.

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

KingJaja
03-24-2012, 11:43 AM
What do you think?


An interesting nugget from the AP's latest dispatch from Bamako:

A diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press said that [Capt. Amadou Haya] Sanogo, the coup leader, was among the elite tier of soldiers selected by the U.S. Embassy to receive military counterterrorism training in America. Sanogo, the official said, traveled "several times" to America for the special training.

That means that he had to pass a background check indicating that he was not complicit in any human rights crimes. The official requested not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

As blogger Laura Seay quips, "your tax dollars at work."

The U.S. hasn't yet made a decision on whether to cut off military assistance to Mali following the coup. According to State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, annual U.S. assistance to Mali is around $137 million, about half of which is humanitarian aid. France suspended its military cooperation with Mali yesterday.

See also: Elizabeth Dickinson's post from 2010 on why coups always seem to be led by captains or colonels not generals.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/23/was_the_mali_coup_leader_trained_in_the_us

About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

Chowing
03-24-2012, 01:15 PM
Chowing commented:

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.

davidbfpo
03-24-2012, 02:14 PM
This example Chowing seems to fit the 'Accidental Guerilla' thesis of David Kilcullen, a local group with a local agenda being labelled as linked to AQ. Yet again an illustration that knowledge of what is happening in the remote parts of Africa and other places, like Mali is at a premium.

Stan
03-24-2012, 02:25 PM
That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.

Hey Chowing,
Do you have links to those reports ?

You should give Dr. Kilcullen's Accidental Guerrilla (https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol53no4/intelligence-in-public-literature.html) a read... Really good stuff !

Stan
03-24-2012, 02:41 PM
What do you think?
About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

I think the info leak should be hung for treason. Some of us (our taxes) wasted a ton of money for him/her to pine away abroad and dream up ways to leak info to the press.

On to the meat of the matter...

I've been sending indigenous military to US schools since 1985 and most come back with a desire to do something for their country (a noble cause). Most however do not end up doing anything with their education and the host country government almost always assigns these folks to something pathetically miniscule.

Exposing a foreigner to life in the US is part of the program - sell America. Some don't care at all for life in the US (several Estonians have told me so), but, I don't recall one African NCO or Officer not liking his/her experience there.

I am unaware of any study done to conclude that these soldiers came back from US training and became coup leaders. And, even if there was statistical evidence, what would we then conclude ? That the USA trained future coup leaders vs sending them to the schools originally intended ? Some of us have been watching too many Hollywood movies :D


About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

Not sure if there's anecdotal evidence to support Elizabeth's theory. Mobutu was little more than a 6th grade educated sergeant and look what he accomplished :rolleyes:

JMA
03-24-2012, 04:41 PM
They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves :D
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about :eek:

Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9159992/Zimbabwe-sperm-hunters-picking-up-male-travellers.html) (YCMTSU)

Little Doughnut
03-25-2012, 04:07 AM
Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?

In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.

Essentially what I'm trying to answer is: How much does the USG have invested in counter-AQIM efforts in Mali and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?

I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.

I'd love a link with some more solid information on training, but please do weigh in any way you see fit.

Stan
03-25-2012, 07:31 AM
Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?

Hey Ben, Welcome aboard !
As you probably already know, other than DOS and USAID, there is no one stop shopping for the info you seek. DSCA doesn't actually open their data up to the world, but their data by country is contained in the overall picture from State. We still have an SF team there now and from what I can tell they have ceased training and ops.


In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.

200K in FMF may sound paltry, but Mali is getting between 140 and 170 million a year total (based on DOS and AID info, covering everything from agriculture development to military training for CT). Then there's a 5-year 460 million package from MCC to boot. All this cash may be funded under different lines, but it's still all State's money regardless of which pot you get it from.


... and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?

Other than humanitarian aid, all the other money and training are on hold.


I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.

That actually is no longer the case and I doubt the USG will be communicating with coup plotters regarding FMF or any other assistance.

Regards, Stan

Stan
03-25-2012, 08:08 AM
Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9159992/Zimbabwe-sperm-hunters-picking-up-male-travellers.html) (YCMTSU)

JMA,
Far worse things have happened to me in Africa !
But, to be subdued and forced to have sex... That has yet to happen :D


Susan Dhliwayo claims she pulled her car over recently to pick up a group of male hitchhikers and they refused to get in, because they feared they were going to be raped.

"Now, men fear women. They said: 'we can't go with you because we don't trust you'," 19-year-old Miss Dhliwayo recounted.

Local media have reported victims of the highway prowlers being drugged, subdued at gun or knife point – even with a live snake in one case – given a sexual stimulant and forced into repeated sex before being dumped on the roadside.

Little Doughnut
03-26-2012, 02:05 AM
Stan, thanks for the swift and thorough response!

Now that the USG can do little more than sit on the sidelines and hope the forthcoming election happens on time (ha), I wonder how much capacity has been built for their two-brigade military to handle AQIM and the Tuareg insurgency? According to the WSJ the Tuaregs are about to roll unopposed into Timbuktu. Even though the Tuareg and AQIM aren't necessarily one in the same, I smell the potential for a safe(r) haven to arise out of this.

Stan
03-26-2012, 12:52 PM
U.S. weighs $137M (http://www.armytimes.com/news/2012/03/ap-united-states-weighs-135-million-aid-mali-coup-032212/) in aid to Mali after coup


WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is weighing the future of military aid to Mali after soldiers in the African country ousted their president and declared a coup.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said no decision has been made. She said officials would meet Thursday to talk about the $137 million in annual U.S. counterterrorism and other assistance.

Army mutineers said they overthrew the government because of its mishandling of an ethnic insurgency in northern Mali.

Nuland wouldn’t call it a coup. She expressed hope the “military action” could quickly be reversed so that Mali returns to democratic governance.

The U.S. has long cited Mali as an African example of a thriving democracy.

The White House also condemned the violence in Mali and voiced support for Mali’s president, Amadou Toumani Toure.

Canada halts aid (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canada-halts-aid-to-mali-after-military-coup/article2379788/) to Mali after military coup


In a sharp reaction to the military takeover and suspension of the constitution, Ottawa is blasting “illegitimate rule” in a country where Canada has been a major donor, sending $109-million in aid last year. Mali is one of Canada’s biggest aid recipients, with much of the money passing directly through government coffers in Bamako.

ganulv
03-27-2012, 03:56 PM
Am I correct in my assumption that the small size of the Malian and Burkinabé militaries has a lot to do with their respective presidents’ anxieties regarding coup attempts? I assume this stays on Blaise (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaise_Compaor%C3%A9#1987_coup)’s mind given how he came about his current position.

Stan
03-27-2012, 05:17 PM
Am I correct in my assumption that the small size of the Malian and Burkinab militaries has a lot to do with their respective presidents anxieties regarding coup attempts? I assume this stays on Blaise (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaise_Compaor%C3%A9#1987_coup)s mind given how he came about his current position.

Hey Matt,
Not all too sure about Burkina Faso other than the typically well fed and paid presidential regiment (RSP), but the Malian military is quite small - numbering less than 7,000 (on paper that is) and reportedly Mali can't afford what they have. Looking at those Russian dinosaurs they have for vehicles and aircraft, it's a wonder they can even put up a defensive force.

ganulv
03-27-2012, 06:19 PM
Hey Matt,
Not all too sure about Burkina Faso other than the typically well fed and paid presidential regiment (RSP), but the Malian military is quite small - numbering less than 7,000 (on paper that is) and reportedly Mali can't afford what they have. Looking at those Russian dinosaurs they have for vehicles and aircraft, it's a wonder they can even put up a defensive force.

The publicly available stuff says about 6,000 in Burkina. That number seems to include the Gendarmerie and the Garde Champêtre. Theres also a five figure conscripted militia force which I cannot imagine amounts to much given that the gates at the camp militaire in Bobo looked like they hadnt been painted in years (Im not saying the country is so poor that their military cant even afford paint; rather I suspect the paint money in the budget gets put into someones pocket before paint can be bought with it).

Veering off topic as I sometimes do I took the photo below as a storm which caught ma petite amie and I was blowing up as we walked back to our auberge. We waited for about twenty minutes in a store and since there was no sign that the rain was going to let up and we were already wet we decided to continue on foot. In the mile or so we walked through the rain the only other movement of any kind we saw on the roads was when we met a couple of soldiers walking in the opposite direction and everyone who saw us walk past had the oddest looks on their faces which I thought was probably their way of expressing that they thought we were morons. Then later I thought about passing the two soldiers and I had to wonder if maybe your average Burkinabè is afraid of being rained on for some reason (that it will make them sick or that they will melt or something) and the soldiers had been made to be out in the weather enough to know better.

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4117/4801105645_fd4fe81f1d_n.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/4801105645/)
Burkinabè (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/4801105645/)s freaking the f**ck out as a storm blows up. (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/4801105645/)

davidbfpo
03-30-2012, 03:39 PM
A coup in Mali is clearly quite different to other African coups:
President Amadou Toumani Toure said on Wednesday that he remained in the country, free and in good health

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17562066 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17543387

As the Tuaregs advance diplomats in ECOWAS are stirring themselves, threatening economic sanctions and in Mali itself the banks are busy as deposits are withdrawn.

KingJaja
04-01-2012, 05:59 PM
I hear the Tuareg rebels have taken over Timbuktu and have declared their independent state. What are the implications?

davidbfpo
04-01-2012, 07:24 PM
KingJaJa,

Yes the 'fall' of Timbucktu has been reported by the BBC: Newshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17576725

You added:
What are the implications?

Typing aloud then I would suggest these:

a) the impact within Mali on the new regime - nearly 500 miles away - and how much Mali and the people think the city is worth
b) will the reported dtente between the rebels and local Arabs hold?
c) the impact on the calculus of ECOWAS on imposing sanctions and possibly intervention. Will petrol supplies be cut-off notably; no fuel, no combat.
d) the impact of such a 'fall' of a city once having a mythological status well beyond the region, notably with Algeria, France and the USA - in that order
e) can the 'rebels' actually administer the Tuareg region, including towns and without some of the extremism associated with AQIM?
f) an ECOWAS intervention leads to an effective partition, I doubt the coalition - even with external support - will seek combat in the north.

All from my faraway "armchair". Helped by this BBC analysis Is Mali's coup doomed?:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17573294

KingJaja
04-01-2012, 08:37 PM
David,

1. Will ECOWAS be forced to side with the junta, because applying sanctions on the junta merely emboldens the rebels? (The rebels want nothing more than a weakened Malian military)

2. What impact will this have on other separatist movements in Africa. Africa is full of artificial states and as I said earlier, the political maps will have to be redrawn this century. We had South Sudan and now this. About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.

davidbfpo
04-01-2012, 09:12 PM
My replies are in bold after the question.


David,

1. Will ECOWAS be forced to side with the junta, because applying sanctions on the junta merely emboldens the rebels? (The rebels want nothing more than a weakened Malian military)No

2. What impact will this have on other separatist movements in Africa. Africa is full of artificial states and as I said earlier, the political maps will have to be redrawn this century. We had South Sudan and now this. About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.Almost none, simply due to the population size, remoteness and minimal impact on African affairs

davidbfpo
04-05-2012, 12:40 PM
A BBC report announces:
Mali's Tuareg separatist rebels have declared an end to military operations, a statement on their website says. The Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA) say they have captured enough territory to form their own state. But the position of Islamist insurgents, who fought alongside the Tuareg in northern Mali, is unclear.

There are other updates in the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17622760

In Timbucktu it looks grim. citing agencies:
The head of Ansar Dine, notorious rebel Iyad Ag Ghaly, has set up base at the town's military camp and has been flanked by three of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's top leaders. Ag Ghaly's men have fought alongside the secular MNLA which wants independence for the desert nomads who originate in the area, however the two groups have very different aims and appear to have fallen out.
Residents and security sources report the Islamists have chased the Tuareg out of Timbuktu, burning their flag and replacing it with their black jihad flag.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/mali/9187608/Tuareg-rebels-announce-end-to-military-operations-in-Mali.html

A snippet following helping two Brits to leave the city:
The couple’s saviors were units of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a nomadic Tuareg force...which did not have an Islamist agenda.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/9186987/British-couple-in-dramatic-Timbuktu-escape.html

KingJaja
04-05-2012, 01:09 PM
In Mali we are dealing with several situations simultaneously.

1. A Military overthrow of an elected civilian government.
2. A mutiny by an ill-equipped and poorly motivated army.
3. The breakdown of military discipline and the command structure of the Army.
4. A popular revolt against the central government by a section of the population (Tuaregs).
5. Infiltration by Al Qaeda.
6. A weak state on the verge of implosion.

Mali urgently needs a renegotiation of its internal political architecture, but the motley crew in Bamako are not in the best position to do it. Will sanctions help stabilise the situation in Mali? I doubt it.

What should the international community do, because instability in Mali puts Niger and Northern Nigeria at risk.

Blind emphasis on point 5 (Al Qaeda infiltration) could be extremely counter-productive

Uboat509
04-05-2012, 04:10 PM
David,

About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.

Nigeria has a lot of oil. If the finance minister can do what she has set out to do (http://www.economist.com/node/21548975), is a lot of potential for growth there. There is probably even enough to spread some prosperity to the North. That would undermine support for BH, which, in turn, might lead to more foreign direct investment as the region became more stable which then leads to more stability and so on. Unfortunately that is a pretty big if.

Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.

Overall Mali's growth over the last two years has not been bad (also about 5%) but its economy is still ~39% agriculture based and GDP per capita (PPP) is still around $1300. Much of the industry and services are located south of Timbuktu. For that matter, if memory serves, most of the best agricultural land is south of Timbuktu as well. The increasing desertification of Sub-Saharan Africa has left much of the land in the north of countries like Mali and Niger unfit for much agriculture. One of the problems that has led to this uprising is the limited economic support that the Tuareg have gotten from Bamako. I am not sure how creating a separate state is going to fix that.

Uboat509
04-05-2012, 04:21 PM
You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

I am not saying that anybody was lied to about what the Tuareg do or do not want. I am simply saying that, because they are such a sparse and widely spread group that none of them can be said to be speaking for all of them. I am sure that some Tuareg absolutely do want a homeland. I also know that some are not so interested and I cannot say that either point of view represents the majority view.


Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

My point is that I am not advocating any fix at all by foreign powers. This is not an issue that they can fix. Africa's problems will have to be solved by Africans. Foreign powers can provide some support for them in this but they cannot fix their problems for them.


Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

I never said that they did want those things. Some do and some probably do not. I can say say, however, that none of them want to watch their children starve because the extreme climate that they live in has become more extreme to the point that it is probably not life sustaining anymore.
I did meet Tuareg who wanted to continue their nomadic herding lifestyle but the grazing is so poor now that livestock are dying off faster than they can replace them. That is not sustainable.

Fuchs
04-05-2012, 04:26 PM
Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.


IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

JMA
04-05-2012, 04:35 PM
I am not saying that anybody was lied to about what the Tuareg do or do not want. I am simply saying that, because they are such a sparse and widely spread group that none of them can be said to be speaking for all of them. I am sure that some Tuareg absolutely do want a homeland. I also know that some are not so interested and I cannot say that either point of view represents the majority view.

My point is that I am not advocating any fix at all by foreign powers. This is not an issue that they can fix. Africa's problems will have to be solved by Africans. Foreign powers can provide some support for them in this but they cannot fix their problems for them.

I never said that they did want those things. Some do and some probably do not. I can say say, however, that none of them want to watch their children starve because the extreme climate that they live in has become more extreme to the point that it is probably not life sustaining anymore.
I did meet Tuareg who wanted to continue their nomadic herding lifestyle but the grazing is so poor now that livestock are dying off faster than they can replace them. That is not sustainable.

Thank you... this makes your position clear.

Uboat509
04-05-2012, 05:18 PM
IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

KingJaja
04-06-2012, 12:04 AM
A lot of noise has been made about the Nigerian finance minister. She isn't actually the person driving the economy, the president and the cabal that got him elected are.

The interests of the cabal do not intersect neatly with the World Bank textbook knowledge she has in her head. There are a few extremely important reforms like the deregulation of the downstream sector of the economy, the petroleum industry bill and power sector reforms that have been stalled.

Right now she has a very mixed (to put it mildly) reputation in Nigeria. Inflation is up, disposable incomes are down. The Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector of the real economy has stalled. Power generation hasn't improved substantially.

Please understand that insiders, not outsiders (even the economist) are the best placed to assess the performance of African public servants. And definitely not the Western business community that barely ventures out of their comfort zone in Lagos.

KingJaja
04-06-2012, 12:13 AM
I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

Always read statistics about Africa with an awareness that nobody really knows what they are talking about.

In the early 2000's, I worked in a consulting firm, based on ITU statistics, there was no way Nigeria could support 70 million mobile phone subscribers. After all, the GDP per capita figures were extremely low and we only had 300,000 land lines.

Naturally, Western firms shied away from investing in Nigeria and the South Africans took over that market. Vodafone realised its mistake and tried its best to get back into the market, but it was too late.

We've tried to do market assessments for Indian firms and firms all over the World. But we just don't know what is going on because data is so unreliable. Census figures are sometimes wildly overstated (or understated). NGOs overstate mortality figures and poverty statistics to increase funding from donor governments. And official statistics are extremely dodgy.

Fuchs
04-06-2012, 06:25 AM
A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

KingJaja
04-06-2012, 09:33 AM
Has the inevitable breakup of Africa's artificial states begun in earnest?



"We solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as from today," said Mossa Ag Attaher, who added that the rebels would respect "the borders with other states."
Armed Islamists had stormed the Algerian consulate in northeastern Mali and abducted seven diplomats on Thursday amid fears Al Qaeda-linked fighters are turning the country into a rogue state and fuelling a humanitarian crisis.
As the Tuareg trumpeted the success of a decades-old struggle to "liberate" their homeland, their fundamentalist comrades-turned-rivals began imposing sharia law in parts of northern Mali.
The MNLA said as a result of their successful conquest of an area they call the Azawad, they were halting all military operations from midnight on Thursday.
Ag Attaher declared: "We completely accept the role and responsibility that behoves us to secure this territory. We have ended a very important fight, that of liberation ... now the biggest task commences."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/mali/9190003/Tuarag-rebels-proclaim-independence-of-Azawad.html

davidbfpo
04-07-2012, 10:04 AM
A BBC report that starts with:
Coup leaders in Mali have agreed to stand down and allow a transition to civilian rule, as part of a deal struck with regional bloc Ecowas. In return, the bloc will lift trade and economic sanctions and grant amnesty to the ruling junta, mediators said.

Later I noted this and wondered:
Ecowas is preparing a force of up to 3,000 soldiers which could be deployed to stop the rebel advance.

In a side bar comment:
Regional defence chiefs of staff are drafting plans for a potential military intervention. But it would still take weeks and outside logistical help before it could be deployed.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276

France has said it will help with logistics and IIRC previous ECOWAS expeditions have had financial support from elsewhere.

SWJ Blog
04-07-2012, 03:06 PM
The Black Flag Flies in Mali (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-black-flag-flies-in-mali)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-black-flag-flies-in-mali) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
04-07-2012, 05:09 PM
An excellent overview of the situation in northern Mali and hat tip to SWC Blog:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/author/matzahwarrior/

A couple of key passages:
The rush to capitalize on the dissolution of Mali’s army in the north has brought to the fore deep conflicts between the MNLA and the salafist-inspired Ansar Al-Din, and brought two terrorist groups who call northern Mali home – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its “splinter” group the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) out of the woodwork.

This I expect contributed to the mutiny, my emphasis:
Following a siege of the military base at Aguelhoc at the end of January, photos and reports out of the city spoke of “summary executions” of nearly 100 Malian soldiers at Aguelhoc

KingJaja
04-07-2012, 10:05 PM
David,

Where are the 3,000 troops going to come from?

Apart from Nigeria, who has the military means to pull it off? Ghana? Senegal? Guinea?

I don't see much enthusiasm from the Nigerian Army to go on another military adventure, their hands are full - Boko Haram, Niger Delta, Darfur etc.

davidbfpo
04-08-2012, 10:24 AM
I am sceptical that ECOWAS can assemble the will and capability for 3k troops to deploy in Mali. If they had announced a civil-military observer mission to be deployed soon that would make sense; one led by a French-speaking nation too as French remains the daily language IIRC.

As for an ECOWAS intervention against the rebels that is "pie in the sky" from my "armchair". Given the terrain, distance and being on their home ground one hopes there is sensible military advice aplenty.

Now, whether other parties see a need to act is a moot point. In particular the USA if AQIM leaders are in one place long enough, more likely is Algeria either now to rescue it's diplomat(s) or after a delay to deliver pain.

KingJaja
04-10-2012, 12:39 PM
What on God's good earth, does this mean?


Boko Haram militants have joined the armed rebellion in northern Mali, security officials said.
Tuaregs and radical Islamist groups have occupied several cities in the north of Mali following a two-month rebellion.

The armed militias made significant advances after the government was overthrown by a military junta.
Last week, Islamists stormed the Algerian embassy in Gao, taking seven Algerian diplomats as hostages. It is not clear whether they have now been freed.
Security sources said the group was led by at least 100 Boko Haram fighters.
"There are a good 100 Boko Haram fighters in Gao. They are Nigerians and from Niger," Abu Sidibe, a regional deputy, told AFP. "They're not hiding. Some are even able to speak in the local tongue, explaining that they are Boko Haram."

Boko Haram militants "were in a majority among those who attacked the Algerian consulate" in Gao, another Malian security official said.
Responsibility for the attack on the Algerian embassy and the kidnapping of diplomats was claimed in a statement issued by an Al-Qaida dissident group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao).
Mujao is said to have split from the main al-Qaida group in the region, Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, in order to focus on spreading jihad in West Africa.
Mali has been rocked by political instability after the government was overthrown by a military coup.
The junta said it was forced to act after the government was unable to stop the Tuareg-backed rebellion in the north.
Since taking charge, however, the junta has been unable to stop the Tuaregs, who have now been joined by other Islamist groups.
Coup leader Army Captain Amadou Sanogo met with the country's parliamentary speaker, Dioncounda Traoré, to discuss a transition back to constitutional rule.
Traoré is set to be sworn in as interim president to oversee a transitional period and to organise elections.

Read more: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/325915/20120410/mali-coup-news-nigeria-s-boko-haram.htm#ixzz1rdmM62Df

davidbfpo
04-10-2012, 12:53 PM
Since the original story is based on a 'security sources', one of them a Malian, I would use a large "pinch of salt" and the reputable analysis in Post 122 made no reference to a Nigerian Boko Harem presence. Given the very confusing situation in Northern Mali, specifically Timbucktu, alongside the clear interests of 'security sources' to link Boko Harem to events in Mali I think I'll wait for a lot more before making a decision.

Convincing others, in particular Algeria, France, Nigeria and USA that there is a linkage is the motive.

Marshal Murat
04-11-2012, 02:41 AM
If ECOWAS is unwilling/unable to deploy soldiers to Mali, what is the possibility of a French Foreign Legion intervention from France after the elections to either "hold the line" against further Taureg advances or deploy with Malian troops? I am not all that familiar with relations between Mali and France, but I would think there is a precedent in Francophone West African states.

Uboat509
04-11-2012, 04:56 AM
A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.

davidbfpo
04-11-2012, 11:41 AM
A Stratfor article 'Africa's Tuareg Dilemma' by Robert D. Kaplan, who visited Mali years ago which is a good background read and then reflects on what has happened:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/africas-tuareg-dilemma-robert-d-kaplan


The real fundamental drama will play out gradually, outside the strictures of media accounts. This drama will be about how, and whether, Africa's recently impressive economic growth rates can lead to the creation of larger middle classes. It is larger middle classes that lead, in turn, to more efficient and vigorous government ministries, and to more professional militaries, so that hinterlands might be brought under control and artificially drawn borders made more workable. The Saharan countries, in this regard, are a more extreme version of the larger African challenge, as the desert has created the largest dichotomy of populations within the continent.

KingJaja
04-12-2012, 03:10 PM
Slightly tangential.

I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

That, not elections nor "a restoration of democracy" or even "the presence of AQ/Boko Haram" is what should keep us worried.

davidbfpo
04-12-2012, 07:42 PM
KingJaja asked:
I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

Kaplan referred to the fragility of many African countries in his article, so it is noteworthy that today in FP Blog there is an article, which starts with:
In a continent that doesn't have much of a reputation for liberal governance, Mali stood out. For the past twenty years this country of 12 million people has stuck doggedly to democratic principles. In 1991, Malians overthrew a military dictatorship and convened a national assembly that drew up a constitution guaranteeing freedom of the press, far-reaching decentralization, and presidential elections every five years. In the years since then, the people of this Muslim-majority country have consistently managed to stick to those principles.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/11/the_lesson_from_mali_do_no_harm?page=0,0

Note the FP article also asks a far wider question, about the impact of intervention in Libya:
The lesson: Even in situations where there is ample justification for using force against dictators or war criminals, policymakers would be well-advised to take a good look at the possible negative side effects of their actions.

KingJaja
04-12-2012, 08:46 PM
Unrelated. Talks about the proliferation of weapons from Libya. If Somali pirates have them, then they are most certainly in Mali/Nigeria.


(Reuters) - Somali pirates have acquired sophisticated weaponry, including mines and shoulder-held missile launchers from Libya, and are likely to use them in bolder attacks on shipping, a senior maritime security analyst said on Thursday.

"We found that Libyan weapons are being sold in what is the world's biggest black market for illegal gun smugglers, and Somali pirates are among those buying from sellers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other countries," said Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism.

"We believe our information is credible and know that some of the pirates have acquired ship mines, as well as Stinger and other shoulder-held missile launchers," Van der Merwe told Reuters on the sidelines of an Indian Ocean naval conference.

After Libya's ruler Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels in the north African state, weaponry from his well-stocked arsenals made its way onto the black market, she said.

The information was gathered from interviews with gun smugglers, pirates and other sources, said Van der Merwe.

Pirates operating from the Somali coast have raked in millions of dollars in ransoms from hijacking ships and a report in 2011 estimated that maritime piracy costs the global economy between $7 billion and $12 billion through higher shipping costs and ransom payments.

Warships from NATO, the European Union and other affected countries deployed in the Gulf of Aden have had only limited success in combating pirate attacks, mainly because of the huge expanse of sea that needs surveillance, some 2.5 million square miles.

"What we are seeing is a decrease in the number of successful attacks, but an increase in the ransom amounts paid out, and the fear is that better armed pirates could risk more or pose a greater challenge when facing capture," Van der Merwe said.

Pirates have attacked as far away as the Indian coast, about 1,000 nautical miles away, and are increasingly turning their attention southwards towards South Africa.

A former commander of naval Task Force 151, one of the multi-national forces in the Gulf of Aden, said pirates usually surrendered when faced with the massive firepower of naval vessels.

"At this stage we are seeing no evidence the pirates of Somalia are having any weapons beyond the AK47s and RPGs," Rear Admiral Harris Chan of the Singapore Navy told Reuters at the conference.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/us-africa-pirates-idUSBRE83B0HO20120412

Marshal Murat
04-12-2012, 08:57 PM
CFR: Mali a dilemma for African Regional Organizations (http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2012/04/10/mali-a-dilemma-for-african-regional-organizations/)


But the Sahel as a whole faces drought, and there were UN warnings of possible famine even before the Mali coup occurred. Now, a spokesman for Oxfam observes that closing borders or restricting trade could have a devastating impact on the people of Mali, making emergency food deliveries to starving populations even more difficult.


Regional organizations may find they have less leverage in such circumstances. And, as Oxfam reminds us, famine could become the context.

These two quotes, from an article that is a bit outdated by now with the official transition, does bring up a linkage between the Taureg insurgency, Mali, and the famine. If I were the Malian government, I would probably use the food as leverage, try to break the Tauregs by starving them to death or forcing them to migrate to other Sahelian states.

KingJaja
04-12-2012, 09:38 PM
These two quotes, from an article that is a bit outdated by now with the official transition, does bring up a linkage between the Taureg insurgency, Mali, and the famine. If I were the Malian government, I would probably use the food as leverage, try to break the Tauregs by starving them to death or forcing them to migrate to other Sahelian states.

A few problems with that:

1. There is no shortage of extremely fragile states from which to operate from. "Starving them out" will simply transfer the problem to these states, from which they can easily regroup and come back stronger (see how Liberia destabilised Sierra Leone).

2. This isn't Biafra 2.0 when the Nigerian government used "starvation as a legitimate weapon of war". Will the international community tolerate starvation as a weapon of war? In any case, I don't recall starvation having a great record of forcing outcomes in Africa's recent history. (Mugabe is still in business, Somalia is still as messed up as it was before).

KingJaja
04-12-2012, 10:41 PM
Totally unrelated. Coup in Guinea Bissau.

Is this the new normal? I'm no expert in democracy, but it clearly has not delivered the goods in Africa. There is no evidence that life in "democratic" Mali was better than life in "authoritarian" Uganda or Ethiopia.

In Nigeria, where I come from 70% of children in primary education in Lagos attend private schools. Democracy has been accompanied with massive state failure (Nigeria spends more on rehabilitation of Niger Delta militants than on primary healthcare).

If democracy is seen not to work, it's back to square one.

Fuchs
04-13-2012, 09:15 AM
There is no evidence that life in "democratic" Mali was better than life in "authoritarian" Uganda or Ethiopia.

Did you look for it?

I doubt that Mali was worse off than in Uganda or Ethiopia, not the least because of the influence of wars and epidemics.


Quality of Life index 2011
http://www1.internationalliving.com/qofl2011/

Uganda overall 51 points (climate 81)
Mali overall 49 points (climate 51)
Ethiopia overall 45 points (climate 92)

Looks like at least this metric favours Mali, since the exogenous factor of climate is what pulls it down.

KingJaja
04-13-2012, 09:45 AM
Those statistics are arbitrarily defined. We should look at easily verifiable statistics such as GDP per capita, economic growth rate, literacy rate and employment rate.

Fuchs
04-13-2012, 10:14 AM
We're not getting any ceteris paribus comparison anyway because the starting points for these countries were too different.
Besides; you were writing about "better" "life", and that's very different from macroeconomic statistics. In fact, there's almost no causality between both.
By the way; your proposed metrics were arbitrarily defined as well.


It's no wonder that you don't see metrics favouring the one democratic country if you dismiss available metrics so easily.

KingJaja
04-13-2012, 02:19 PM
Sorry if I came across as dismissive, but having spend a fair amount of time in an "African democracy", I tend to be sceptical about "African democracies" especially when they are praised to high heavens by the West.

Fuchs
04-13-2012, 03:28 PM
Democracy means the people can get rid of your rulers with some civility once every few years.
It does not equal good governance.

davidbfpo
04-27-2012, 09:36 AM
The BBC News headline and the situation is:
At least 3,000 regional soldiers are ready to go to Mali to support the transitional government's fight against rebels which control the north. The BBC's John James at the meeting in Abidjan says no timescale was set for the deployment to Mali, because the leaders were waiting for the Malian government to draw up details of their collaboration. It is still unclear which regional countries will contribute to the Ecowas force, and even once ready, it will need financial and logistical outside help before it can be deployed.

Ok, change the headline to ECOWAS thinks about sending troops to Mali. No change two weeks later, from my previous comment.

KingJaja
04-27-2012, 03:06 PM
But where will these troops come from? I don't see them coming from Nigeria.

davidbfpo
04-27-2012, 03:42 PM
But where will these troops come from? I don't see them coming from Nigeria.

Looking at who is an ECOWAS member and Nigeria abstaining I cannot see anyone providing troops. How many of the members have a deployable military now and it suits their national interest to intervene on the ground?

Link to ECOWAS membership:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States

I have ignored "interested parties" offering far more than logistic help, yes hiring ECOWAS troops.

One wonders if any Africans involved in this matter have pondered whether the odium piled upon Executive Outcomes was a mistake.

AdamG
05-01-2012, 04:04 PM
Counter-coup attempt under way in Mali

Several people reported killed in fight between coup troops and those loyal to ousted president at national broadcaster.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/04/201243021132449292.html

davidbfpo
05-06-2012, 06:22 PM
I suppose it was only a matter of time, as the destruction of the Bamiyan sculptures showed in Afghanistan, but in Mali things move faster.


Islamist fighters said to be linked to al-Qaeda have destroyed the tomb of a local Muslim saint in the Malian town of Timbuktu, officials and locals say.
The gunmen attacked the shrine and set it on fire, saying it was contrary to Islam, according to the official.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17973545

Nothing like "winning friends" or 'hearts & minds'.

davidbfpo
05-08-2012, 09:57 AM
Some background which I was not aware of:
In 1991, more than two decades prior to similar pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Malians engaged in a massive nonviolent resistance campaign that brought down the dictatorship of Mousa Traor. A broad mobilization of trade unionists, peasants, students, teachers, and others .... created a mass movement throughout the country. Despite the absence of Facebook or the Internet, virtually no international media coverage, and the massacre of hundreds of peaceful protesters, this popular civil insurrection succeeded not only in ousting a repressive and corrupt regime, but ushered in more than two decades of democratic rule.

Despite corruption, poverty, and a weak infrastructure, Mali was widely considered to be the most stable and democratic country in West Africa.

I'd not seen this in the coverage, my emphasis:
Charging that the civilian government was not being tough enough against the rebels, US-trained Army Captain Amadou Sanogo and other officers staged a coup on March 22 and called for US intervention along the lines of Afghanistan and the war on terror. Sanogos training in the United States is just one small part of a decade of US training of armies in the Sahel, increasing the militarization of this impoverished region and the influence of armed forces relative to civilian leaders.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/stephen-zunes/mali%E2%80%99s-struggle-not-simply-of-their-own-making-0

KingJaja
05-08-2012, 10:53 AM
Africa hasn't seen a US commerce secretary in 12 years. Meanwhile, US Army generals visit every month.

Warped priorities.

davidbfpo
05-08-2012, 12:02 PM
Nor have events in Mali been without loss for the USA, edited down and dated 20th April 2012 (thanks to a SWC reader):
Three American military personnel and three civilians died early Friday in a single-car crash in Mali's capital, U.S. officials said... one of the three Americans was from U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command, and the two others were assigned to U.S. Special Operations Command. The military personnel were in Mali as part of a U.S. special operations training mission that was suspended after last month's coup overthrew the country's democratically elected president.

Link:http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/04/20/3-us-military-personnel-killed-in-mali-crash/

KingJaja
05-28-2012, 07:41 PM
Seems like the World has forgotten Mali and is resigned to two states - Mali in the South and "Azawad" in the North.

The longer Azawad remains a de-facto state, the more difficult it would be to reverse the situation on the ground.

In any case, it is a sign of things to come.

ganulv
05-28-2012, 07:59 PM
Seems like the World has forgotten Mali and is resigned to two states - Mali in the South and "Azawad" in the North.

The longer Azawad remains a de-facto state, the more difficult it would be to reverse the situation on the ground.

In any case, it is a sign of things to come.

One of my university classmates who is affiliated with the Dogon Language Project (http://dogonlanguages.org/index.cfm) returned to Africa last week to resume fieldwork. The project has moved their base of operations from Mali to Burkina Faso due to the political situation and I am not sure if they are plan to do some work north of the border. In any case, after she has been there long enough to get caught up on the scuttlebutt I will make inquiries and report back.

davidbfpo
05-30-2012, 10:17 AM
This was a question asked by KingJaja a few days ago.

Given the state of flux inside Mali, one could reverse the question. Has Mali forgotten the World?:wry:

I am uncertain that there are reporters in situ in Bamako and certain that no-one is in the rebellious north. Maybe specialists are producing reports and these simply don't reach the BBC for example.

Today there is this report, note without a byline:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/mali/9296600/Plans-for-Islamist-breakaway-state-within-Mali-collapse.html

One hopes that in Mali there are wise minds applied to encouraging the two groups to diverge; one thing is for certain the diplomatic noises of ECOWAS will only be heard by ECOWAS.

A more strategic 'ungoverned spaces' article, hat tip to Carl Prine, by an ex-CIA operator: http://www.andmagazine.com/content/phoenix/12253.html

I am not convinced about his title and this sentence:
Northern Mali, called Azawad by the locals, may be the newest Afghanistan.

davidbfpo
06-09-2012, 02:31 PM
First there were reports of conflict between Tuareg MNLA rebels and the Ansar Dine Islamist group (aligned to AQIM), two weeks ago and my previous post:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18104236

Now the BBC reports they are shooting at each other, not in Timbucktu, but further east:
Two rebel groups that seized northern Mali two months ago have clashed following protests in the town of Kidal...

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18377168

Worth reading the blog piece by a FT journalist who has been on the ground:http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/06/reporting-back-xan-rice-on-mali/

Almost sounds like 'divide and rule' is alive and well. Hopefully the locals can resolve this themselves, with the odd nudge from outside - preferably by those who know the ground, yes 'Uncle Sam' that might not be you.:eek:

davidbfpo
06-11-2012, 01:30 PM
An article by Andrew Lebovich on Al-Wasat blog as he explains, with plenty of links:
This post is my attempt to sort through some of the current popular attitudes about the security situation in northern Mali, the very real risks to regional and international security that may be looming in the north, and the equally real constraints on militant groups attempting to impose shari’ah in northern Mali or project force beyond Mali’s already porous (or nonexistent) borders.

Link:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/06/10/is-mali-the-next-afghanistan/

davidbfpo
06-28-2012, 09:31 AM
A BBC report:
Islamist forces in northern Mali have seized the town of Gao after clashes with Tuareg-led rebels. At least 20 people have been killed and the political leader of the Tuareg-led movement has been wounded.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18610618

davidbfpo
06-29-2012, 04:57 PM
A London-based RUSI analyst commentary which starts with:
In the aftermath of the Mali coup, northern secessionists have declared an independent Islamic state. With verifiable links to Al-Qa'ida, there is a real risk that 'Azawad', as it is known, will become the next wellspring of instability and terrorism in Africa.

She ends with:
Yet, the hope is that, on this occasion, a strategy of action will be agreed swiftly enough to prevent Mali from becoming the next terrorist sanctuary.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4FCF45F14B819/

I remain unconvinced that such a desolate, thinly populated area with very few external links requires an external - let alone a US - response.

davidbfpo
07-06-2012, 09:51 AM
I am sure the news from Timbucktu has intruded with a reminder that the distant past can affect today, as reported by the BBC for example:
The town's ancient Islamic shrines - the mausoleums of local Sufi saints - are being methodically torn down, and ploughed back into the Saharan sands, by militant outsiders who believe, scrupulously, that intolerance is a virtue.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18723035

Plus the diplomatic froth over intervention:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18728950

Paul Rogers has a review piece, with good points on keeping out being made:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/mali-war-islamism-and-intervention He notes:
Nigeria, Niger and Senegal - are reported to be prepared to furnish a large part of a planned 3,270-strong force.

AdamG
07-07-2012, 10:47 PM
Intervening in Mali: West African Nations Plan Offensive against Islamists and Tuareg Rebels
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 13
July 5, 2012 08:00 AM Age: 2 days
By: Andrew McGregor

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=39553&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=13&cHash=290c19164a4d92eaa3af0a9045e8997a


As Tuareg rebels battle radical Islamists with heavy weapons for control of the northern Mali city of Gao, Mali and the other 15 nations of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are planning a military offensive designed to drive both groups out of northern Mali in an effort to re-impose order in the region and prevent the six-month old conflict from destabilizing the entire region. So far, however, operational planning has not been detailed enough to gain the approval of the UN Security Council for authorization of a Chapter Seven military intervention, leaving ECOWAS and the African Union with the option of delaying the campaign or proceeding without UN approval.

Good assessment of the Malian Army, in particular


Mali’s military will be handicapped in their re-conquest of the north by the absence of its elite unit, the “Red Beret” parachute commando regiment of some 600 men under the command of Colonel Abidine Guindo. The regiment, which doubled as the presidential guard, was officially disbanded by the putschists after it remained loyal to ex-President Amadou Toumani Touré and succeeded in spiriting Touré out of the country before he could be arrested. A failed counter-coup led by the “Red Berets” on April 30 complicated matters further, with members of the regiment now being put on trial for opposing the new government.

ganulv
07-18-2012, 03:33 PM
sex with African prostitutes (http://sofrep.com/9275/update-sof-presence-in-mali/) can result in drastically diminished combat effectiveness.

davidbfpo
07-25-2012, 02:26 PM
Yes another FP article on intervention in Mali, the authors is:
Gregory Mann is a professor of history at Columbia University, specializing in the history of francophone Africa, and of Mali in particular.

Article:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/24/africanistan_not_exactly?page=full

Hard work is required and the final paragraph sums it all up:
So what is to be done? Ultimately, Malians themselves will have to take the lead in resolving a crisis that has endangered their neighbors. Outside actors can only help all sides seek an honorable way to make the Malian north safe again, partly by working to get Bamako to accept the assistance of its neighbors. At the moment, foreign military intervention, whether it comes from ECOWAS or elsewhere, will be viewed as an invasion in both the south and the north. That has to change, which means that politics has to come first. A political solution will be harder to achieve than a military one, but you get what you pay for.

davidbfpo
08-20-2012, 07:28 PM
Nothing like speculation, citing Algerian sources:
A rapid intervention unit composed of French, British, Italian and Spanish special forces has been formed to target al-Qaeda in the Sahel countries. Algeria has also formed special units designed to track down and target Al-Qaeda as well as the Tawhid and Jihad group.

Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/08/military-exercises-in-libyas-des.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I have always considered Algeria the key nation regarding the use of coercion in the Sahel, including Mali.

The other four nations have interests, capability and IMHO insufficient political will to deploy - kidnapping / hostage rescue excepted.

davidbfpo
08-23-2012, 01:45 PM
From Andrew Lebovich on al-Wasat and the opening paragraphs:
Since it first burst onto the scene in December 2011, the Movement for Tawhid and Jihad in West Africa (generally MUJWA in English, or MUJAO in French) has been a difficult group to pin down. The group, originally characterized as a "dissident" faction of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), its actions have raised a number of possible contradictions and open questions. Recently, some local and international actors have taken in particular to questioning MUJWA's actions, and speculating that MUJWA, believed to be heavily funded by the cocaine and now the kidnapping business, may in essence be using jihadist activities as a sort of front for its criminal behavior.

This post is an attempt to explore and analyze some of the possible explanations for MUJWA's behavior, with a focus on its activities, composition, and role in the city of Gao. Ultimately, I will question some of the assumptions local and international observers have made about MUJWA's motivations, in particular attempts to frame MUJWA as a "criminal" rather than a "terrorist" or "insurgent" organization, when available evidence paints a far more complicated picture of overlapping motivations and multiple sub-groupings within the same organization.

On the drugs trade aspect:
While much ink has been spilled about the spread of the drug trade in the Sahel, precious little direct evidence has been publicly provided with regards to the actual size and profitability of this trade. This is due largely to the incredible difficulty of researching the trade, efforts by traders to launder or otherwise hide money behind businesses in multiple regional countries, though I suspect part of it is also lazy writing and analysis.

Loads of links within and link:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/08/22/trying-to-understand-mujwa/

davidbfpo
08-28-2012, 09:55 AM
A strange report on a patrol with the army in Mali. I expect this passage is not "winning hearts & minds":
This, for now, is as far we can go, an army captain tells me. We decide to film this unmarked border between north and south. As we jump off the truck, a coach full of people - possibly northern refugees - comes tearing around the corner towards us.

While we wait for the vehicle to pass out of shot, the captain starts shouting and waving his arms. In an effort to be helpful to our film, he orders the coach off the road and out of sight.

Within seconds (this being the wet season) it is stuck in an ocean of mud and that - despite the efforts of its many pushing passengers - is the last we see of them all, as our patrol turns around and heads for home.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19372083

ganulv
08-28-2012, 04:15 PM
Sitting on a sofa in what passes for the officers' mess is Colonel Didier Dako. Speaking in clear, well articulated English, he extends his hands and invites us to sit down.

Gently stroking his well-tended moustache, our host smiles warmly and says, "Wherever you go here, my special forces will ensure your safety."

After thanking him for this generous offer, I ask what distinguishes his "special forces" from the rest of his men? "Ah," he whispers with a gentle shake of the head, "that is sensitive information".

[…]

As promised, we are being tailed by a pick-up truck full of heavily armed soldiers and these, it seems, are not any old squaddies. They are wearing light brown instead of green uniforms, as well as fancy knee pads and black T-shirts. Are these the Mali Army's special forces? It appears so.during which hours of nothing was discussed but prior to which great effort was expended in the procurement of stackable white plastic chairs and refreshments I must compliment the author on his fine balance of cheek and tact in this piece.

The next morning – after a night of intermittent power cuts, clouds of ravenous mosquitoes and thunderous downpours – we pile into an old Landrover, before speeding off to join an army patrol hunting for insurgents.As someone who has spent a rainy season lodging in a household set up with the assumption of the presence of electricity, I count the realization that daily life would actually have been less hassle for all of us if things were set up to run without electricity altogether as one of the more important insights I have had about the state of the modern world. :wry:

ganulv
09-16-2012, 06:30 PM
related to the current situation in Mali via Global Observatory (http://theglobalobservatory.org/analysis/349-northern-mali-key-is-strengthening-bamako-ecowas-plan-harbors-risks.html). Important meeting in Abidjan tomorrow (http://www.panapress.com/ECOWAS-may-re-impose-sanctions-on-Mali-s-military---12-842495-100-lang2-index.html), apparently.

davidbfpo
09-22-2012, 09:55 AM
More and more refugees arrive in Mauritania every day from Mali: last January at the beginning of the conflict in Northern Mali, there were 16,000; today there are more than 100,000. And the influx continues.



Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/intagrist-el-ansari/mali-in-crisis-tens-of-thousands-of-refugees




In the beginning, the reason for the flight from the conflict area was the people’s belief that the Malian Army would exact reprisals following their confrontation with the MNLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad). But the next wave of refugees occurred due to the pressure exercised by the Islamists.



M-A Lagrange
09-24-2012, 02:39 PM
Mali: The Need for Determined and Coordinated International Action


Africa Briefing N°90
24 Sep 2012
Please note the full briefing is only available in French

OVERVIEW

In the absence of rapid, firm and coherent decisions at the regional (Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS), continental (African Union, AU) and international (UN) levels by the end of September, the political, security, economic and social situation in Mali will deteriorate. All scenarios are still possible, including another military coup and social unrest in the capital, which risks undermining the transitional institutions and creating chaos that could allow religious extremism and terrorist violence to spread in Mali and beyond. None of the three actors sharing power, namely the interim president, Dioncounda Traoré, the prime minister, Cheick Modibo Diarra, and the ex-junta leader, Captain Amadou Sanogo, enjoys sufficient popular legitimacy or has the ability to prevent the aggravation of the crisis. The country urgently needs to mobilise the best Malian expertise irrespective of political allegiance rather than engaging in power plays that will lead the country to the verge of collapse.

Almost six months after a coup overthrew President Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT) and the Malian army relinquished control of the three northern administrative regions to armed groups – the Tuareg separatists of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and the Islamist fighters of Ansar Dine (Ançar Eddine), the Movement for Unicity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – none of the pillars of the Malian state was able to give a clear direction to the political transition and to formulate a precise and coherent demand for assistance to the international community to regain control of the north, which represents more than two thirds of the territory. The next six months will be crucial for the stability of Mali, Sahel and the entire West African region, as the risks are high and the lack of leadership at all levels of decision-making has so far been obvious.

The message from Crisis Group’s July 2012 report on Mali is still relevant. It is not a call against the principle of a military action in the north. Indeed, the use of force will probably be necessary to neutralise transnational armed groups that indulge in terrorism, jihadism and drug and arms trafficking and to restore Mali’s territorial integrity. But before resorting to force, a political and diplomatic effort is required to separate two sets of different issues: those related to intercommunal tensions within Malian society, political and economic governance of the north and management of religious diversity, and those related to collective security in the Sahel-Sahara region. The Malian army and ECOWAS’s forces will not be capable of tackling the influx of arms and combatants between a fragmented Libya and northern Mali through southern Algeria and/or northern Niger. Minimal and sustainable security in northern Mali cannot be reestablished without the clear involvement of the Algerian political and military authorities.

Following the high-level meeting on the security situation in Sahel scheduled for 26 September, on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York, Malian actors, their African and non-African partners and the UN will have to specify their course of action and clarify minimal objectives to be reached by March 2013.

The president and the prime minister should:

•constitute immediately a small informal group including Malian personalities, preferably retired from the political scene, who have specific skills and significant experience in the areas of internal security, governance and public administration, organisation of elections, decentralisation, inter-community mediation and international relations, in particular regional diplomacy, in order to help the government define a global strategy to resolve the crisis.
ECOWAS leaders should:

•recognise the limitations of the organisation in mediating the crisis and planning a military mission in Mali, and work closely with the African Union and above all with the UN, which are better equipped to respond to challenges posed by a crisis threatening international peace and security.
The UN Security Council and member states represented at the high-level meeting on the situation in Sahel should provide support to the Secretary-General to:

•appoint a special representative of the Secretary-General for the Sahel and provide him with the necessary means to achieve his mission, which must focus on reconciling the positions of ECOWAS member states, regional players (Algeria, Mauritania, Niger and Mali) and Western countries;
•boost the UN presence in Mali to help the transitional government withstand the economic and social crisis, produce a credible roadmap for the restoration of territorial integrity and the organisation of transparent elections as soon as possible, and uphold the rule of law by gathering detailed information on human rights violations committed in the south (in particular in Bamako and Kati) as well as in the north;
•begin, together with the AU and ECOWAS, a mission to facilitate reconciliation within the Malian army to prevent another military coup with unpredictable consequences.
Mali’s foreign partners, in particular the European Union and the U.S., should:

•support efforts to reestablish the Malian defence and security forces by enhancing their unity, discipline and efficacy in order to ensure security in the south, constitute a credible threat of the use of force in the north and be able to participate in operations against terrorist groups;
•contribute to the resilience of the Malian economy, and employment in particular, through a rapid resumption of foreign aid so as to prevent social unrest that risks deepening the political and humanitarian crisis;
•respond favourably to demands for urgent humanitarian assistance to the civilian population seriously affected by the crisis in Mali and the entire Sahel region, in accordance with what the UN has been advocating for several months without generating mobilisation adequate to the seriousness of the situation.
Dakar/Brussels, 24 September 2012
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/mali/b090-mali-the-need-for-determined-and-coordinated-international-action.aspx?utm_source=malireport&utm_medium=1&utm_campaign=mremail

davidbfpo
09-24-2012, 08:54 PM
The West African state of Mali has agreed to host a regional military deployment aimed at dislodging radical Islamists in control in the north....Mali was initially opposed but has now agreed to host the 3,000-strong force in the capital, Bamako. After intense regional diplomatic efforts, the authorities have given the green light for a logistical base on the outskirts of the city

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19699590

Slowly moving along, UNSC approval needed and then someone with deep pockets.

davidbfpo
09-25-2012, 11:53 AM
We know that international politics and countering insurgency / terrorism can make for unlikely allies and situations - so with that caveat aside:
The Islamist ‘terrorist’ groups that have taken over control of northern Mali are not only the creations of Algeria’s secret police, the Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS), but they are being supplied, supported and orchestrated by the DRS.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/jeremy-h-keenan/algerian-%E2%80%98state-terrorism%E2%80%99-and-atrocities-in-northern-mali

To be frank the byzantine intrigues involved make me sceptical, but we do know that the Algerian insurgency was "dirty", so this reference may support the argument:
.. John Schindler on July 10 (2012). In an article in The National Interest entitled ‘The Ugly truth about Algeria’, Schindler, a former high-ranking US intelligence officer and long-standing member of the US National Security Council (NSC) and currently Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College, ‘blew the whistle’ on Algeria when he described how:

“the GIA (Armed Islamic Group) [of the 1990s] was the creation of the DRS; using proven Soviet methods of penetration and provocation, the agency assembled it to discredit the extremists. Much of GIA’s leadership consisted of DRS agents, who drove the group into the dead end of mass murder, a ruthless tactic that thoroughly discredited GIA Islamists among nearly all Algerians. Most of its major operations were the handiwork of the DRS, including the 1995 wave of bombings in France. Some of the most notorious massacres of civilians were perpetrated by military special units masquerading as mujahidin, or by GIA squads under DRS control.”

Sending Algerian SF into mali to protect AQIM is too hard to accept.

davidbfpo
09-25-2012, 12:00 PM
The contrary viewpoint, from a more well-known analyst, George Joffe and he notes:
What does this then mean for Algeria’s project of indirect control of its southern borders and the Sahelian regions abutting them? It seems clear that, if Algeria’s DRS had been exploiting its infiltration of the country’s extremist groups as a means of achieving such control and minimal cost, its project has failed.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/george-joff%C3%A9/chaos-in-sahel

ganulv
09-25-2012, 10:36 PM
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19699590

Slowly moving along, UNSC approval needed and then someone with deep pockets.

Passed along that link to my friend (https://twitter.com/Indiana_Tones) who is currently in Burkina Faso and she replied back a couple of hours or so ago that she had seen “loads of paratroopers today falling out of the sky with various AU-flag colored parachutes.” Not sure if she was in Ouaga or Bobo at the time. Or whether she was still on the Valium/cortisone drip. :D

davidbfpo
09-26-2012, 12:19 PM
Passed along that link to my friend (https://twitter.com/Indiana_Tones) who is currently in Burkina Faso and she replied back a couple of hours or so ago that she had seen “loads of paratroopers today falling out of the sky with various AU-flag colored parachutes.” Not sure if she was in Ouaga or Bobo at the time. Or whether she was still on the Valium/cortisone drip. :D

I have not heard of an African parachute operation ever, partly as the African nations have so few suitable transport aircraft. Note I exclude South Africa and Arab nations, which in the past have had a capability. Let alone a drop with AU-flag colored parachutes!

ganulv
09-26-2012, 12:38 PM
I have not heard of an African parachute operation ever, partly as the African nations have so few suitable transport aircraft. Note I exclude South Africa and Arab nations, which in the past have had a capability. Let alone a drop with AU-flag colored parachutes!

I saw a couple of guys being dropped over the base across the road where I was staying in Bobo in the summer of 2010. Given the size of the Burkinabé army—c. 6,000—their capability is certainly limited. Maybe a multi-national unit is being formed specifically for MICEMA? The jump Abbie spotted might also have been part of a training. [LINK (http://www.army.mil/article/38977/)]

tequila
09-26-2012, 11:39 PM
China offers support to Mali military in fight against Islamists (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-26/china-offers-support-to-mali-military-in-fight-against-islamists.html)


China offered to support Mali’s military in its fight against Islamist rebels who have seized northern parts of the country, said Guo Xueli, charge d’affaires at the Chinese Embassy.

“China firmly supports the position of Mali,” Guo said in an interview on state television yesterday in the capital, Bamako. “We are going to bring our assistance to the extent possible, specifically in the military where we already have a very old cooperation.”

Mali’s government has been battling Islamist rebels in the north of the country since they took control of the area from separatist ethnic Touareg fighters in May. The rebels took advantage of a political crisis in the south triggered by the ouster of President Amadou Toure in a March 22 coup.


A decided lack of specifics, but interesting nonetheless. One wonders what is so valuable in Mali to trigger said assistance?

ganulv
10-23-2012, 06:58 PM
The former missionary to the French and governor to the Massachusettians made mention of the situation in Mali during last night’s presidential debate (http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/lauren-collins/2012/10/mitt-mali-and-france.html) (good thing he made it early or I would have missed it as the proceedings eventually put me to sleep).

From the BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20050713):

Two weeks ago, the UN Security Council gave the regional bloc Ecowas 45 days to draw up a plan with the details of its offer to send 3,000 troops to the vast desert region.Having gotten an aerial view of northern Mali (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtbradley/4775938464/) I am indeed curious as to what those 3,000 troops are going to be doing. Securing urban areas and select villages while drones (http://www.undispatch.com/top-of-the-morning-france-sending-drones-to-mali-uganda-threatens-to-withdraw-from-congo-mediation-efforts) and units which do not officially exist do nightwork?


http://www.courrierinternational.com/files/illustrations/article/2012/04/1118/1118-MaliAzawad.jpg (http://www.courrierinternational.com/article/2012/04/05/sahel-la-poudriere-africaine)

Fuchs
10-23-2012, 07:53 PM
vast desert region

Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.

ganulv
10-23-2012, 08:10 PM
Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.
Running the insurgents out of that area is one thing. Running them down in the desert afterwards is another. The Tuaregs have been known to make do there.

Fuchs
10-23-2012, 08:32 PM
Running the insurgents out of that area is one thing. Running them down in the desert afterwards is another. The Tuaregs have been known to make do there.

Maybe, but right now the topic is that the government has lost half of the densely-populated area to an uprising in Mao' third stage.

ganulv
10-24-2012, 04:21 AM
Maybe, but right now the topic is that the government has lost half of the densely-populated area to an uprising in Mao' third stage.
The fact that there wasn’t much in the way of the first two stages beforehand says a lot about the Malian government’s “hold” on things previous to that. And suggests bad things to come for people in the streets of Bamako after the operation gets underway. :(

Just spitballin’ here, but maybe someone could offer the MNLA a federated, semi-autonomous state in exchange for their aid in running Ansar Dine and the MUJAO to ground?

ganulv
10-24-2012, 03:52 PM
Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.
So am I off base in thinking maybe the force will headquarter in Mopti and send one battalion up RN15 and another towards Timbuktu? And that it won’t happen until harmattan season is over at the earliest?

http://db.tt/m0weZZp9 (http://mapper.acme.com/?ll=15.68651,-1.54358&z=8&t=H&marker0=15.00000%2C-2.95000%2CDouentza&marker1=16.27269%2C-0.07141%2CGao&marker2=14.48255%2C-4.17480%2CMopti&marker3=16.77036%2C-3.03497%2CTimbuktu)

Fuchs
10-24-2012, 05:15 PM
Hmm, trying to win with geography details?

Look, "vast desert region" communicates to me a difficulty to exercise control and to find the opposition. That's not leading to what's really relevant there imo.

No matter what hold the government's opponents have on isolated settlements; the country is really about the Niger river and its green belt.
An intervention force would hardly focus on some outlier settlements - even if they are epicentres of the opposition - and meanwhile ignore the green belt where most of the population under 'control' of the opposition lives at.
An intervention force would hardly have the manpower to occupy much with 3,000 men (likely less than 50% teeth) and the government of Mali is no doubt more interested in high-pay-off control of Niger green belt settlements than in low pay-off occupation of unfriendly outlier settlements.

So yes, I expect that intervention forces would focus on driving the opposition forces out at the Niger river, possibly with two hook movements to set up checkpoints against fleeing opposition forces.
I doubt that they would go for lesser settlements first, and I even doubt that foreigners would attempt to solve this fundamental conflict themselves or to suppress it in the long term.
The French are more known for assistance or raid-like missions (even outright punitive expeditions as in Cote d'Ivoire and with the bombing of a Libyan airbase in the 80's). To rout the opposition forces along the river would fit into their pattern imo.


This whole "vast desert region" thing reminded me a lot about the talk of "battle-hardened Iraqi desert army" in 1990, when even a superficial look at maps showed that the Iraqi army had "fought" for eight years in hills, swamps and little desert.

ganulv
10-24-2012, 06:09 PM
I doubt that they would go for lesser settlements first, and I even doubt that foreigners would attempt to solve this fundamental conflict themselves or to suppress it in the long term.
The muddle is that there are two things going on—a secular separatist movement in the form of the MNLA and an Islamist insurgency in the form of Ansar Dine and the MUJAO. I don’t think foreigners would or should care about Malian–Tuareg issues, either, but there seems to be a real possibility that the GWoT paradigm is going to be applied here.

davidbfpo
10-31-2012, 12:25 PM
As always a thorough analytical comment on al-Wasat, with multiple links, on this many faceted issue:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/what-to-make-of-foreign-fighters-in-mali/

I was curious to note the reports of fighters moving to Mali from Tindouf, a city in western Algeria, better known as the base for the secular nationalist group Polisario. There are thousands of trained, experienced fighters there and their families (in exile from Western Sahara, now absorbed into Morocco).

davidbfpo
10-31-2012, 12:28 PM
The latest Strategic Comment, a broad brush so wider than Mali & The Sahel:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/october/extremism-spreads-across-west-africa-and-the-sahel/

ganulv
10-31-2012, 04:31 PM
The latest Strategic Comment, a broad brush so wider than Mali & The Sahel:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/october/extremism-spreads-across-west-africa-and-the-sahel/
I get the impression that Ansar Dine might not have come into being had its leader been able to find room at the MNLA table and that his being left out seems to have had more to do with Tuareg social structure than it did with religious ideology. I am not certain that is the case, but it is a possibility that I hope is kept in mind by the planning and policy-making class.

davidbfpo
11-02-2012, 01:27 PM
Paul Roger's column looks at:
The growing prospect of western-backed military intervention to reverse the spread of Islamism in west Africa is good news for an evolving al-Qaida movement.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/mali-and-next-war

Paul takes a pessimistic view on the "blow-back" Western involvement:
....a "shadow war" involving drones, special forces and private military contractors will rapidly develop, backing up regional troops whose main functions will focus on garrisoning regained land.

This key western involvement is likely to have a definite untoward impact. Jihadist propaganda may appear shadowy and opaque to those beyond its reach; but it will persistently and effectively represent such involvement in Mali as yet another western assault on Islam, and link the phenomenon with the suppression of Boko Haram in Nigeria...

Having tried to follow what has happened and the policy options for external parties I have yet to see any mention of:

a) external, non-coercive options
b) internal Mali options

KingJaja
11-03-2012, 10:43 AM
Before another season of folly starts, please take a look at the Sahel - it is vast.

There are too many unemployed young men in that part of the World. Too many for us to promote an aggressive "military only" solution.

AdamG
11-12-2012, 05:43 PM
Not the latest Disney blockbuster, but worthy of it's own thread. Get your popcorn ready now, 'cause these guys won't be home by Christmas.


West African regional leaders have agreed to deploy 3,300 soldiers to Mali to retake the north from Islamist extremists. At a summit of Ecowas, the group's chairman said it was ready to use force to "dismantle terrorist and transnational criminal networks". The soldiers would be provided mainly by Nigeria, Niger and Burkina Faso.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20292797

Time's grade school level backgrounder -

Mali’s Looming War: Will Military Intervention Drive Out the Islamists?

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/11/12/malis-looming-war-will-military-intervention-drive-out-the-islamists/#ixzz2C1y3KMr6

davidbfpo
11-15-2012, 12:59 PM
AdamG,

The second linked article by a Time journalist in Mali has this amazing line:
Northern Mali is barely a hop and skip across the Mediterranean.

Really?

Politics aside how the local population react is a good indicator, so this was a gem:
Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

davidbfpo
11-15-2012, 01:04 PM
Paul Rogers looks at what is happening, with several links in support:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/mali-preparing-for-war

I note the stance taken by Algeria:
The entire operation would be greatly aided were Algeria to be supportive.. Algeria seems unlikely to alter its stance, however. A security advisor of Algeria's government... says that external intervention would not work and that instead a political solution must be found

davidbfpo
11-16-2012, 02:57 PM
The heralded ECOWAS intervention does appear to be a rather slow process. Assembly of contributions, movement into Mali, re-equipping and training of the Malian military, negotiations with some of the militants and an EU training mission.


Any foreign-backed offensive to retake control of northern Mali from al Qaeda-linked Islamists will take at least six months to prepare, plans seen by Reuters show, a delay that runs counter to the expectations of many Malians.

Links, text from:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/us-mali-crisis-idUSBRE8AF0SD20121116 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20342369

davidbfpo
11-23-2012, 04:02 PM
Mali under pressure to give separatists autonomy in fight against al-Qaida; Ecowas wants Tuaregs to help take on militants as officials say priority is to remove all terrorists

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/22/mali-separatists-al-qaida

This reads like "divide & rule" from my faraway armchair, but I am wary of ECOWAS having enough influence, let alone power to get Mali's cooperation, nor that there is such a "moderate" element to talk with. Interesting to note the famed Tuaregs only constitute 11% of the population in the northern area.

ganulv
11-24-2012, 06:32 PM
Interesting to note the famed Tuaregs only constitute 11% of the population in the northern area.

An undercount, perhaps? I am under the impression that about 10% or so of the population of the whole of Mali is Tuareg, though I do not know if a real census has been done in Mali. And the Tuareg do have a tendency to move around, at least if allowed to do so.

I do think the percentage of Tuaregs in the total population begins to decrease as one moves south towards the Niger River. My friend recently noted (http://abbie-h.livejournal.com/23659.html) that Ansar Dine had a hand in a dispute in the Dogon village where she formerly resided. Islamists adjudicating a dispute amongst the Dogon is something that I do not think anyone would have imagined ever happening a year ago!


[…] I am wary […] that there is such a "moderate" element to talk with.

My impression is that the MNLA are moderate in the sense that they are secularists and I have read a couple of commentators claiming that Ansar Dine may be if not necessarily moderate at least pragmatic. I have not seen any similar claims regarding the MUJAO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_Oneness_and_Jihad_in_West_Africa).

davidbfpo
11-28-2012, 08:50 PM
CTC Sentinel's leading story:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-challenges-of-retaking-northern-mali


This article will show why northern Mali is prone to rebellion. It will then explain how the state has supported militias to quell these frequent uprisings, argue that the state might re-employ that same strategy to unseat Islamist militants in the north, and identify what results an international military intervention might bring.

It is really a primer on the challenges and is dismissive of international action.

There is a second, longer article 'An Algerian Press Review: Determining Algiers’ Position on an Intervention in Mali' looks at:
According to many press accounts, while Algeria reportedly still favors a “political solution” to the crisis in Mali, it now appears that Algiers will participate in an international intervention within specified parameters and discretion. Algerian media reports remain divided, however, over whether military intervention is desirable, and several articles suggest that while Algiers has identified political processes it favors with respect to Mali, it has yet to decide on a desired end state from negotiations or military action.

Link:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/an-algerian-press-review-determining-algiers-position-on-an-intervention-in-mali

davidbfpo
11-29-2012, 12:21 PM
Hat tip to Cimicweb newsletter for a pointer to a very comprehensive human security briefing, which is IMHO a "one stop" primer on everything:http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/mali_conflict_food_insecurity_nov_2012.pdf

ganulv
12-02-2012, 06:27 PM
Hat tip to Cimicweb newsletter for a pointer to a very comprehensive human security briefing, which is IMHO a "one stop" primer on everything:http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/mali_conflict_food_insecurity_nov_2012.pdf

That's a good one, David. Thanks, I have passed it along.

jmm99
12-06-2012, 07:24 AM
Jack Goldsmith (at Lawfare), The Libyan Afterparty Continues (http://www.lawfareblog.com/2012/12/the-libyan-afterparty-continues/) (December 5, 2012):


Walter Russell Mead coined the phrase “Libyan afterparty” to describe the many unintended and unhappy consequences – especially for the rise of Islamist terrorist power centers in Northern Africa – of the 2011 U.S. and NATO invasion of Libya. (Some of Mead’s terrific posts on the issue can be found [JMM: linked with titles and ledes below]; there are more.) The afterparty continues this week. Here (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/05/northern-mali-jihadist-safe-haven/) is Mead today:

The full extent of the damage caused by the Libyan afterparty is slowly becoming clear, as bad news from Mali continues to trickle in. Flooded with weapons and veterans from Libya, the northern half of Mali has become a Texas-sized Saharan safe haven for al-Qaeda and affiliates. Newly galvanized young men from across the region are drawn to the fighting, which threatens to destabilize much of West Africa. ...

Earlier links -

July 4, 2012 - The Libyan Afterparty Continues As Timbuktu Dies (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/04/the-libyan-afterparty-continues-as-timbuktu-dies/):


In the ongoing struggle between northern Mali’s secessionist Taureg fighters and a local Islamic jihadist group, Ansar Dine, the Islamists claim to have driven all remaining rebels from a third and final large town in the region. If the reports are accurate it would complete their control over a lawless area that may serve as a stronghold for al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups in the Maghreb. ...

October 19, 2012 - Libyan Afterparty Getting out of Hand (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/19/libyan-afterparty-getting-out-of-hand/):


It’s now been nearly a year since the NATO’s Libya mission was completed, but the afterparty is still dragging on in nearby countries. This week, the FT reported that France is growing particularly concerned with the growth of al-Qaeda groups in northern Mali, where Islamic militants have established a firm foothold in the region ...

October 22, 2012 - Get Ready for the Mali Invasion (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/22/get-ready-for-the-mali-invasion/):

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/files/2012/10/Islamist_groups_WestAfrica_big-1.gif


France is sending drones to Mali while hundreds of Islamist fighters are coming in from across the Middle East, preparing to defend their safe haven.

According to the Associated Press, French drones will soon be patrolling the skies above the Malian desert. ...

October 31, 2012 - Libya: America’s New Nation Building Commitment (Mali Next) (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/31/libyas-state-is-failing/):


Regular readers know that we’ve never been optimists about the results of President Obama’s decision to wage an air war in Libya against the Qaddafi regime. The consequences of the war have more than justified our concern; this story in the FT, about the ongoing tribalist chaos around the town of Bani Walid, only underlines the utter fecklessness of the new Libyan government and the dangerous chaos taking root in that country. ...

October 31, 2012 - The War on Terror Opens A New Front (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/31/rise-of-radical-islam-in-west-africa/):


At Via Meadia we’ve been closely following the ongoing Libyan afterparty, which saw thousands of heavily armed mercenaries flood south across the Sahara, promptly leading to war and a coup in Mali, which not so long ago bright eyed development optimists touted as one of Africa’s model democracies and a sign of a bright new day for the battered continent.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has published a helpful write-up on the rise of radical Islamic throughout the Sahel and West Africa—a development that still only fuzzily registers in the minds of American politicians and voters. ...

November 5, 2012 - Why The Ambassador Died (http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/11/05/why-the-ambassador-died/):


A story in this morning’s New York Times points out that the United States did not have forces in place capable of protecting its personnel and Benghazi last September.
...
But the story raises deeper and far more troubling questions about how unprepared the administration was to deal with the new situation its intervention in Libya created. For months now, the security situation throughout Libya, in neighboring Mali, and in other countries has been deteriorating sharply. Bands of jihadis and their supporters are roaming almost at will. Under conditions like this, it was only a matter of time before American citizens or diplomats would be attacked or taken hostage. ...

Today's NYT followup to last story, U.S.-Approved Arms for Libya Rebels Fell Into Jihadis’ Hands (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/06/world/africa/weapons-sent-to-libyan-rebels-with-us-approval-fell-into-islamist-hands.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0&hp):


By JAMES RISEN, MARK MAZZETTI and MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT
Published: December 5, 2012

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration secretly gave its blessing to arms shipments to Libyan rebels from Qatar last year, but American officials later grew alarmed as evidence grew that Qatar was turning some of the weapons over to Islamic militants, according to United States officials and foreign diplomats.
...
The administration has never determined where all of the weapons, paid for by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, went inside Libya, officials said. Qatar is believed to have shipped by air and sea small arms, including machine guns, automatic rifles, and ammunition, for which it has demanded reimbursement from Libya’s new government. Some of the arms since have been moved from Libya to militants with ties to Al Qaeda in Mali, where radical jihadi factions have imposed Shariah law in the northern part of the country, the former Defense Department official said. Others have gone to Syria, according to several American and foreign officials and arms traders. ...

Not a pleasant set of articles.

Regards

Mike

ganulv
12-06-2012, 03:52 PM
I did a guest post (http://www.onviolence.com/?e=663) at the On Violence blog if anyone is interested. Nothing new, really, just some (hopefully) useful information in a (hopefully) readable format.

davidbfpo
12-07-2012, 07:47 PM
An article by Andrew Lebovich, a Dakar-based researcher focused on security and political issues in the Sahel and North Africa:http://thinkafricapress.com/mali/politics-ethnicity-locality-mali-mujao

Rightly he mentions two factors, one which is given little attention - the Malian army - and the history of local militias, which has appeared here before:
Mali’s army continues its halting movement towards reorganisation alongside a group of citizen and sectarian militias with past involvement in northern Mali. These militias, which include new iterations of the Ganda Koy (“Masters of the Land”) and the Ganda Iso (“Sons of the Land”), bring to the fore the possibility of ethnic violence and retribution in any operation to retake northern Mali. Already, observers describe the language employed by some militia members as “quasi-genocidal” toward ‘light-skinned’ populations like Tuareg and Arabs, recalling the bloody violence perpetrated by similar militias during rebellions in the 1990s and 2000s.

Northern Mali is an ethnically diverse, if sparsely populated, area. Accounting for approximately 10% of Mali's population in an area roughly the size of France, the region encompasses traditionally nomadic and semi-nomadic Tuareg and Arabs, as well as sedentary Songhai, Peul, Bella, and others.

KingJaja
12-08-2012, 06:23 AM
Davidbfpo,

I think the West should stop seeing Africa through the prism of "Global War on Terror" - and see what is happening for what it is - the normal process of state formation and a sneak preview of what Africa will look like when the French finally withdraw.

Any intervention in Mali is likely to be a waste of manpower and money.

Commando Spirit
12-09-2012, 07:50 PM
So it appears that the various nations that are sending liaison officers is to include the UK? This may not be a huge surprise but the seniority of those selected to go, and the pace at which they have been deployed is quite something. I have read about individual officers being deployed over 2 months earlier than they had expected. This suggests that the recent escalation in activity really is quite significant.

Any more French speakers willing to miss Christmas at home?!?

KingJaja
12-11-2012, 10:02 AM
Interesting article on US policy (or lack of it) in Africa.


As Ambassador Carrington concluded at his UMass address: “Mali is a cautionary tale for any country seeking U.S. assistance.” Because the United States lacked real intelligence about what was going in Mali’s political circles, American actions helped to topple one of Africa’s oldest democracies. Unintended consequences, to be sure; but an undertaking deeply unworthy of – and damaging to – the kinds of outcomes the U.S. would like to see in Africa, and the principles it claims to stand for.

http://africanarguments.org/2012/12/06/the-u-s-pivots-slightly-toward-africa-by-michael-keating/

Dayuhan
12-13-2012, 01:14 PM
Interesting article on US policy (or lack of it) in Africa.

http://africanarguments.org/2012/12/06/the-u-s-pivots-slightly-toward-africa-by-michael-keating/

Interesting article. A couple of comments...

First, I'm not sure I see any sense in talking about an "Africa policy" in generic terms. Given the size of the continent and the wide variety of interests and issues involved any such thing would be too general to have much meaning. Might be better to look at multiple policy sets based on loose (and inevitably overlapping) regional lines.

Observing that the Malian officers that staged a coup had US backed training and jumping from there to "American actions helped to topple one of Africa’s oldest democracies" seems a bit of a stretch. Is it clear that the training they received actually enabled or encouraged the coup, or that they would not have staged the coup without such training? What was the actual extent and content of the training, and how exactly did it cause the coup, if we are going to claim a causative relationship?

One argument against training officers is that the US is inevitably held responsible for all subsequent actions of those trained, even though it may have no control over those actions. Never a good idea to put yourself in a situation where you're going to be held responsible for things you can't control.


When Americans say that promoting democracy is one of the key pillars of their Africa policy, they should mean it. That means no more uncritically supporting ersatz democrats like Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni. It means following up in South Sudan – an American instigated project if there ever was one- to make sure that the country does not descend into chaos. It means being very careful who gets weapons and training and making it very clear that serious consequences will follow if forces trained by Americans turn on legitimate governments, as was the case in Mali.

This assumes capacities that the US may not have: for example, the capacity to assure that South Sudan does not descend into chaos. If the US is going to be obligated to take permanent control of every situation it's involved with, the only rational response would be to cease all involvement, because the potential commitments emerging from any involvement would be unmanageably large. If engagement means you're responsible for everything that happens thereafter, better not engage. There have to be limits.


Investment – Americans talk a good game when it comes to investing in Africa, but the evidence of their enthusiasm is slim outside of South Africa and the various oil and ore patches. Right now there are tremendous opportunities throughout the continent in banking, telecoms, agriculture, construction, and retail. Nonetheless, when you drive around West Africa, you see mostly NGO logos rather than corporate ones. The consequences of this neglect include massive unemployment and a general feeling that the continent is being left behind.

Perhaps the best place for U.S. foreign policy to start would be to offer serious help in upgrading African universities, many of which are in shambles. Extension of favorable trade status, particularly in the agriculture section would also help along with massive increases in direct aid for infrastructure projects.

Without doubt, the risk factor is a major obstacle to increased U.S. investment. However, Americans need to put down their prejudices and go see what’s happening for themselves. The World Bank has a unit called the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency that provides business risk insurance to businesses investing in developing countries. American entrepreneurs ought to be lined up outside its door.

This whole section reflects a quite stunning ignorance of the relationship between the US Government and US Corporations. You can't accuse corporations of "neglect" for not taking actions that are in no way their responsibility to take, and there's no realistic way the US government can compel (or effectively encourage) US corporations to engage in places where their assessment of risk and reward is unfavorable. The US is not China, and investment is not a controllable instrument of policy. Then of course there's the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, seen in many circles as an effective prohibition against US companies doing business in Africa.


Why send 100 Special Forces to hunt down Joseph Kony and none to save lives in the Congo? Some analysts believe it was a thank-you gesture to Uganda for its support of the military effort in Somalia.

I see no reason to assume a quid pro quo. More likely the question contains its own answer. The US is willing to send 100 Special Forces troops to hunt down Joseph Kony because it's a limited effort that can be reasonably managed by 100 Special Forces soldiers. An attempt to "save lives in the Congo" would represent a much larger commitment that American politicians don't believe they could sell to the electorate. "Get Kony" is a specific limited objective. "Fix the Congo" is a one-way road to a quagmire.


Speaking of the Cold War, a new version of that competition, between China and the West, is emerging on African soil.

A "new Cold War" seems a highly exaggerated view of the US and China in Africa. Nice sound bite, yes, but not a supportable view IMO, unless we adopt a very loose definition of what a "Cold War" is.

KingJaja
12-13-2012, 04:32 PM
Dayuhan,

Thank you for your observations.

African governments and the African public are not as interested in the relationship between US corporations and the US govt as they are in who is most likely to bring in the investment that will provide them jobs.

This may be selfish, myopic and uninformed, but it is just the way things are. And if the US was in a similar situation, Americans would feel the same way.

Just like corporations compete, nations compete. At this point in time, China Inc has certain advantages over US Inc in Africa. If the US government thinks that the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act hinders the competitiveness of US businesses in Africa - well, that's the State Department's call.

I accept that AFRICOM training may not have been responsible for Mali's coup, but it isn't that difficult for enemies of the US (and they are quite a few) to suggest that there is a link between the two. Secondly, the Congolese Army also claims to be AFRICOM trained - and it also fell like a pack of cards in the face of M23 rebels.

A good foreign policy should limit the number of unforced errors. Presently there are just too many unforced errors for anyone to conclude that US policy is wise.

Finally, I don't really care - I've seen the writing on the wall. Whatever the US does or doesn't do will have very little impact on the future of my generation of Africans.

Dayuhan
12-13-2012, 11:36 PM
African governments and the African public are not as interested in the relationship between US corporations and the US govt as they are in who is most likely to bring in the investment that will provide them jobs.

I'm sure they are, but neither American corporations nor the US Government have any obligation to provide jobs and investment to anyone. Nations who wish to attract investment have to seek it out and adjust their own policies and practices to make themselves attractive investment destinations. Investors don't compete for the opportunity to invest, nations compete to attract investors. Nations that delude themselves into thinking they're the belle of the ball and all the investor boys are going to come begging them to dance with no effort on their part will end up spending a lot of time an the edge of the dance floor, and at the end of the night the only guy who comes round is likely to be the sleazy date rapist with a roofie in his pocket.

Of course it's easy to blame investors for not investing and creating jobs, and that makes everyone feel good and diverts responsibility from where it belongs... but anyone who really wants investment and jobs needs to take action locally, not whine about what someone else is or isn't doing.


This may be selfish, myopic and uninformed, but it is just the way things are. And if the US was in a similar situation, Americans would feel the same way.

Very true, but how is that any of our business? How Africans feel is not our problem.


Just like corporations compete, nations compete. At this point in time, China Inc has certain advantages over US Inc in Africa.

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese for the dubious privilege of getting involved with that mess? There will be exceptions, but for the most part we're better off letting them deal with it. It's not as if African investment is somehow analogous to oceanfront real estate, something everybody desperately wants to be involved with.


If the US government thinks that the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act hinders the competitiveness of US businesses in Africa - well, that's the State Department's call.

State has nothing to say about it. It's a law, passed by Congress and signed by the President. Congress could repeal it, but there's close to zero chance of that happening in the current political environment.


I accept that AFRICOM training may not have been responsible for Mali's coup, but it isn't that difficult for enemies of the US (and they are quite a few) to suggest that there is a link between the two. Secondly, the Congolese Army also claims to be AFRICOM trained - and it also fell like a pack of cards in the face of M23 rebels.

No matter what the US does or doesn't do, enemies of the US will find ways to suggest that everything bad that happens anywhere is somehow a consequence of US action or inaction. Many people will believe it. That is given and irreversible. It's been that way for so long that most of us have become impervious. If we blamed ourselves for everything we're blamed for we'd either commit physical suicide or the intellectual suicide of joining the Chomsky faction of the left.


A good foreign policy should limit the number of unforced errors. Presently there are just too many unforced errors for anyone to conclude that US policy is wise.

If anything that goes wrong after engagement with the US is going to be seen as a US error, we have to either stop engaging or ignore those perceptions. Anyone who thinks a few months of US training will make an army function or that US engagement is going to transform dysfunctional nations is barking at the moon. Again, if engagement is going to create irrational expectations, the choices are to stop engaging or ignore the expectations and live with the blame from those who hold them. Living up to the expectations is not possible in the real world.


Finally, I don't really care - I've seen the writing on the wall. Whatever the US does or doesn't do will have very little impact on the future of my generation of Africans.

I wish more people realized that.

Ken White
12-14-2012, 12:25 AM
I wish more people realized that.It's important that a lot of folks understand that your choice "realized" as opposed to 'thought,' 'believed' or some other nebulous word or phrase is appropriate and quite accurate.

All we can do there is make things worse.

KingJaja
12-14-2012, 08:08 AM
Dayuhan,

Thanks for your kind response.

I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

Dayuhan
12-14-2012, 11:26 AM
I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The US government, media, and academics do an unbelievable amount of fretting over an extraordinary number of things. Any given fret-set in isolation might seem large, but has to be evaluated against all the others. If you made a hierarchical ranking of all the things they fret over, I'd guess that losing out to the Chinese in Africa would be way down the list.


The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

The average American wouldn't have the slightest idea what we're talking about.


Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

All political speeches are hot air... but it is true that politicians who give speeches outside the country should be more aware of the fact that there are those who haven't figured that out yet.


If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

I don't know if Africa would be better off, but I suspect that the US would be. We will never know, because I'm never going to be the one defining the message!

davidbfpo
12-14-2012, 07:37 PM
Clint Watts comments on the reported disunity amongst the Islamist rebels:
Well, it looks like more money and fighters has led to more conflict than unity in AQIM. Analysis suggesting more of any one terror group input (Weapons, money, fighters, etc) will lead directly to a stronger collective whole (AQIM) naively ignores the one thing that is most difficult to quantify and analyze: Human nature.....

Across al Qaeda’s global footprint, decentralization has led to there being more incentive for affiliates to compete than cooperate. With Bin Laden’s death, donors spread their funds more diffusely and local affiliate illicit revenue schemes must increase. Ultimately, this change leads to al Qaeda affiliates with waning allegiance to al Qaeda Central.

Link:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=840

Thinking about this I wonder how distant onlookers, even sympathisers, will react to such groups becoming more like robbers, than fighters. Distant feelings of legitimacy and possibly sympathy are nothing compared to the local reaction.

davidbfpo
12-16-2012, 08:17 PM
Based on a Time report a month ago (Post 187) I noted:
Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

A month appears to be a long time if this report in The Guardian is to be believed:
Mass rape, amputations and killings – why families are fleeing terror in Mali; At refugee camps, reports are flooding in of horrific human rights abuses in a country once famous for its music and joyous lifestyle.


The tales recounted suggest a population subjugated by a regime well versed in appalling brutality. Allegations of war crimes include summary executions, mass rape, racism and the targeting of elders by child soldiers recruited by the extremists. Some allege that child soldiers are being forced to rape women.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/15/rape-killings-terror-mali?CMP=twt_gu

Anyone able to comment on the social implications and possibility of 'child soldiers'?

davidbfpo
12-18-2012, 11:35 PM
Once an apparent pillar of democracy in West Africa, Mali has drastically deteriorated in 2012, with a coup bringing down the elected government in March and a combination of armed groups taking over vast areas of the desert north soon thereafter. Those areas remain under the control of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar Dine, MUJAO and the MNLA, while a shaky interim government in Bamako seems to make little progress. Discussions are underway for the intervention of a regional force that will assist the Malian army in retaking the north, but there are many unanswered questions about the emerging plan. This panel will discuss the root causes of Mali's instability and strategies for addressing those causes that can contribute to long-term peace and stability.

Link:http://www.usip.org/events/crisis-in-mali-causes-and-options

Commando Spirit
12-23-2012, 08:39 PM
Ansar Dine militants began attacking holy sites in the city on Saturday
Islamists in Mali have begun destroying remaining mausoleums in the historic city of Timbuktu, an Islamist leader and a tourism official said.

"Not a single mausoleum will remain in Timbuktu," Abou Dardar, a leader of the Islamist group Ansar Dine, told AFP news agency.

Islamists in control of northern Mali began earlier this year to pull down shrines that they consider idolatrous.

Tourist official Sane Chirfi said four mausoleums had been razed on Sunday.

One resident told AFP that the Islamists were destroying the shrines with pickaxes.

Timbuktu was a centre of Islamic learning from the 13th to the 17th centuries.

It is a UN World Heritage site with centuries-old shrines to Islamic saints that are revered by Sufi Muslims.

The Salafists of Ansar Dine condemn the veneration of saints.

"Allah doesn't like it," said Abou Dardar. "We are in the process of smashing all the hidden mausoleums in the area."

Islamists seized control of Timbuktu in April, after a coup left Mali's army in disarray.

The news that further monuments were being destroyed came one day after Islamists were reported to have cut the hands off two people.

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, another Islamist group operating in the area, warned that there would be further amputations, AFP reported.

Last Thursday the UN Security Council gave its backing for an African-led military operation to help Mali's government retake the north if no peaceful solution can be found in coming months.

A day later, Ansar Dine and the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group, said they were committed to finding a negotiated solution.

davidbfpo
12-26-2012, 08:49 PM
I'd seen that UN approval was given for the ECOWAS intervention force, presumably for diplomatic reasons and maybe funding? What I'd missed that a French General is assigned as commander:
..the passage last week by the U.N. Security Council of a French-sponsored resolution authorizing military intervention in northern Mali by a 3,300-strong force of soldiers from the Economic Community of West African States. The soldiers are to be trained and commanded by French officers. A French general with experience in Africa and Bosnia, Francois Lecointre, has been named to command the mission.

As previously reported the EU will re-train the Malian military:
About 400 European Union soldiers have been assigned, beginning next month, to train a 3,000-strong Malian army force that would be capable of redeployment to restore government authority in the stretches of northern Mali that have fallen under the control of AQIM forces.

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/al-qaeda-group-france-is-endangering-hostages-by-agreeing-to-train-malis-soldiers/2012/12/26/40513506-4f4b-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.html?tid=wp_ipad

Commando Spirit
12-28-2012, 08:29 PM
If child 'soldiers' are employed in Mali as we have seen in other African conflicts, e.g. Uganda, Sierra Leone and Somalia, I suspect that we [Western Nations] will see a devastating increase in soldiers returning with psychological injuries; more so than we have witnessed thus far in recent conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not really a huge leap of intellect as,no doubt, you will all have thought the same, but it's something I've been mulling over recently and so I thought I'd bring it into this debate in order for others to comment or air their views on the subject.

Disclaimer - This is not meant to be an antagonistic observation about PTSD or other psychological injuries and if this does flirt on the edge of your own line of taste vs distaste then I apologise, it is not my intent to offend.

Back to the topic. I do not think it unreasonable to expect that children will be used in Mali as fighters, be they intentionally and maliciously made to become addicted to drugs first [as in Uganda] or simply forced through fear of death or abuse. This predicted psychological issue may not be as widespread an issue if the UN force is made up of West African's as the article posted by Davidbfpo above suggests. However, add in a force of EU or perhaps US personnel and there we have the ingredients for this prediction to come to fruition, alas.

Show me a soldier from the EU who has to legitimately use lethal force on a child and I will show you a significantly increased risk of PTSD or a like injury. Are we ready for this? Are the medical support services in place and sufficiently well established or manned to treat these personnel? Perhaps medical personnel in SWJ/SWC may be in a position to comment?

In the UK Trauma Risk Management (TRiM) practitioners are trained within units to conduct the first line assessment of individuals from a psychological perspective but are they adequately resourced to deal with the potential numbers of personnel adversely affected?

Given the drive to downsize deployments throughout the EU and the US militaries, will we deploy adequate numbers of personnel to act as BCRs?

Lots of questions raised and I have a view on them all but I'd like to leave it there for now to the wider SWJ collective to comment as you see fit.

CS

Piranha
12-28-2012, 10:36 PM
A day later, Ansar Dine and the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group, said they were committed to finding a negotiated solution.

Ansar Dine as well? I missed that one. Frankly, I am a bit surprised to read that.

davidbfpo
12-31-2012, 02:37 PM
A rather breathless AP article in part, based on local sources, with AQIM building tunnels and moving SAMs from Libya. Shades of Tora Bora? See:http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=18098473

The best parts are the comments by Robert Fowler, a Canadian diplomat, who was kidnapped for four months in 2008:
Fowler described being driven for days by jihadists who knew Mali's featureless terrain by heart, navigating valleys of identical dunes with nothing more than the direction of the sun as their map. He saw them drive up to a thorn tree in the middle of nowhere to find barrels of diesel fuel. Elsewhere, he saw them dig a pit in the sand and bury a bag of boots, marking the spot on a GPS for future use.

In his four-month-long captivity, Fowler never saw his captors refill at a gas station, or shop in a market. Yet they never ran out of gas. And although their diet was meager, they never ran out of food, a testament to the extensive supply network which they set up and are now refining and expanding.

davidbfpo
12-31-2012, 02:49 PM
Robert Fowler a Canadian diplomat seconded to the UN in Niger was kidnapped for four months in 2008, by AQIM and has written a book on his experiences 'A Season in Hell'.

It has been well reviewed on Amazon:http://www.amazon.com/Season-Hell-Robert-Fowler/dp/1443402052/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356963491&sr=1-1&keywords=a+season+in+hell+robert+fowler

One review is a guide:
Robert Fowler has written a unique account of what it is to be a captive of Al Queda. Unique, because Fowler is the highest-level representative of western governments ever to be taken by Al Queda. Also, because his background as a diplomat, senior government official and UN representative was precisely keyed to the menace of islamist terrorism; he knows his subject.

The book explains in painful detail the treatment he was subjected to for four months in the Sahara desert, the motivation of his radicalized captors and the perfidious actions - as well as the heroics - of the various actors involved. Fowler `gets' the big picture, and explains it in terms that provide a wake-up call to both the threatened governments of the Sahel region and the western governments that must support them.

Link to Amazon UK:http://www.amazon.co.uk/Season-Hell-Days-Sahara-Qaeda/dp/1443402044/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1356964229&sr=1-1

For some background on SWC there is a thread on Niger, which covers his kidnapping:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=9303.

davidbfpo
01-08-2013, 04:59 PM
Robert Fowler, once a Canadian diplomat, has written an article:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/why-canada-must-intervene-in-mali/article7015466/

He ends with advice on what the mission's objectives must be:
This must be about damaging and degrading the capabilities and numbers of al-Qaeda in northern Mali that it won’t soon threaten the peace and stability of our friends across this vulnerable region. And it must also be about helping Mali’s armed forces to reoccupy and then defend their country once the jihadis have been diminished.

It won’t be about turning Mali into Saskatchewan or Nebraska. And it won’t be about exporting our social safety net or funding a government or anything else that isn’t directly related to damaging al-Qaeda.

Not seen this before, but it makes sense - earlier in the article:
Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

ganulv
01-09-2013, 06:53 PM
Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

Protecting a $120-per-individual investment seems reasonable, but are the investors sure that that investment has been an effective one?

Fuchs
01-09-2013, 07:05 PM
Not seen this before, but it makes sense - earlier in the article:

Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

It's the classic sunk costs fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy ). Irrationality at work. Keep the man away from influence, he would do a lot of nonsense.

Stan
01-09-2013, 08:03 PM
Seems Robert, other than being a captive in denial, has no clue. He will no doubt end up being a future Clinton adviser on Africa and we'll do the dance yet again at the expense of the taxpayers. :rolleyes:


during my 130 days as their captive, that such was their aim: to extend the turmoil of Somalia from Mogadishu on the Indian Ocean to Nouakchott on the Atlantic.

All we need to do is dump billions into the continent to the point that no single person or terrorist group can compete, and we win the jackpot and all that comes with that ridiculous hypothesis. Not like we have yet to attempt such a fiscal nightmare only to be slapped in the face with a hungry dictator.

Jeez, why is this so hard to figure out :cool:

davidbfpo
01-09-2013, 10:44 PM
Just found a short CFR report that Nigeria is reducing its ECOWAS contribution from 600 to 450:http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2013/01/08/nigeria-cuts-troop-pledge-for-mali/ Note I have yet to see a single ECOWAS soldier arrive in Mali.

Then the Canadian SOF have a small training team in place:
..they are primarily there to advise Malian troops and provide training in communications, planning and first aid....providing counter-terrorism skills training and officer training. The teams number fewer than 15 soldiers.....small teams will continue to move in and out of Mali as the country requires training.

Link via South Africa:http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21855:mali-to-receive-canadian-special-forces-to-fight-al-qaeda&catid=56:diplomacy-a-peace&Itemid=111&goback=%2Egde_2311273_member_202260698

Piranha
01-09-2013, 11:43 PM
Following a day of fierce demonstrations in its capital Bamako as well as in the city of Kati, Mali's government orders schools there to be closed "until conditions of serenity and quiet have returned". Link to the communique, in French: http://www.coopfaso.net/didi/communique-le-gouvernement-decide-de-la-fermeture-des-etablissements-scolaires-a-bamako-et-kati

Jeune Afrique has a report on the demonstrations
pour reclamer des concertations sur la transition, la liberation du Nord et le depart de Dioncounda Traore. which can be found at http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130109154625/mali-aqmi-bamako-fleuve-nigera-bamako-et-kati-des-manifestants-reclament-la-liberation-du-nord-mali.html

The government calls upon the population "to unite behind the army, making an effort to reconquer the regions in the north of the country".

davidbfpo
01-10-2013, 02:12 PM
Adam Nossiter, the West Africa bureau chief for The New York Times, has been reporting on the Islamist takeover in the north....

Link to NPR radio interview:http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=168483341&m=168548311 and excerpts:http://www.npr.org/2013/01/03/168483341/northern-mali-a-violent-islamist-stronghold

davidbfpo
01-11-2013, 11:49 AM
The BBC reports an emergency UN Security Council meeting yesterday, calling for:
the "swift deployment" of an international force to Mali.

The diplomacy appears to be a response to some reporting of both sides advancing.

In a twist that takes the "biscuit":
On Tuesday, African Union chairman Thomas Boni Yayi said Nato should send forces to Mali to fight the Islamists. He said the Malian conflict was a global crisis which required Nato to intervene, in the way it had done in Afghanistan to fight the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Nato troops should work alongside an African force in Mali, he said.

The African Union has sub-contracted ECOWAS to intervene, although without any money of other physical support. Ah, what is ECOWAS doing? I have looked through previous posts:

a) April 4th 2012 'ECOWAS is preparing a force up to 3,000'
b) April 27th force 'ready to go'
c) September 24th Mali agreed to host ECOWAS
d) November 12th 'ECOWAS agreed to deploy, six months to prepare'
e) December 2012 UNSC gives support to ECOWAS

The BBC from New York reports:
For logistical reasons the African force already approved by the UN was not expected to even begin its offensive before September or October...

Pathetic. I remain convinced this ECOWAS force will not deploy in Mali and even if it did it will never take the offensive. Now the African Union is throwing away its stance on no Western intervention, calling for NATO to fight in Mali!

Listening and reading the reporting it is almost as if Mali has been lost and AQ now has a new base - in a place far less hospitable than Afghanistan, the FATA and Somalia. As one expert has noted the "rebel north" is comparable in size to France (675k sq kilometers) or Texas (696k sq kms). Let me add somewhere we are familiar with, Afghanistan is 647k sq kms.

davidbfpo
01-11-2013, 02:48 PM
The Sahel has recently shown glimpses of hope as jihadist groups have overtaken northern sections of Mali in the wake of Libya’s collapse. Despite the upheaval in Mali, disparate groups appear to be contesting each other’s claims to the desert. Isolated in remote portions of the Sahara and almost entirely dependent on illicit funding streams, the Sahel offers few advantages as an enduring global safe haven for al-Qaeda and many logistical burdens.

The emphasis is mine and the passage is a small part of Clint Watts wider review of AQ for FPRI in July 2012:http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2012/201207.watts.al-qaeda.pdf

SWJ Blog
01-11-2013, 07:02 PM
Can ECOWAS replicate the success of AMISOM in Mali? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/can-ecowas-replicate-the-success-of-amisom-in-mali)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/can-ecowas-replicate-the-success-of-amisom-in-mali) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
01-11-2013, 07:02 PM
Can ECOWAS replicate the success of AMISOM in Mali? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/can-ecowas-replicate-the-success-of-amisom-in-mali)

--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/can-ecowas-replicate-the-success-of-amisom-in-mali) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).

davidbfpo
01-11-2013, 09:57 PM
Sketchy reporting that the French have intervened, with a small ground presence and air power - after a request from Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20991719

One hopes the cited seven French hostages are not now executed.

Stabilising the unclear line between the "rebels" and the Bamako government appears to be the initial objective.

davidbfpo
01-12-2013, 04:12 PM
A PPT map used by the French MoD indicates what the French have done:http://www.afriscoop.net/journal/spip.php?article6762

Close air support by helicopters and aircraft, using in-flight refuelling; with troops to Bamako using Transall medium transports and what looks like a Breguet Atlantic ASW aircraft for C2 & ELINT (as per P3 Orions etc used elsewhere).

Note the ECOWAS nations have agreed to immediate deployment and the commander is a Nigerian - not sure what happened to the French general!

ganulv
01-12-2013, 09:37 PM
A press release (http://www.defense.gouv.fr/operations/actualites/mali-lancement-de-l-operation-serval) from the French Minister of Defense’s website. Points to the French for handle—Opération Serval (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Serval_in_Tanzania.jpg) shows some real Gallic style. Here’s hoping for substance, as well.

davidbfpo
01-15-2013, 12:20 AM
A strange NYT article on the US role before the coup in Mali in mid-2012, one wonders why this had been in the public domain and challenges the value of the US DoD programme across West Africa:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/world/africa/french-jets-strike-deep-inside-islamist-held-mali.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&seid=auto&pagewanted=all&_r=1&

This alone suffices:
According to one senior officer, the Tuareg commanders of three of the four Malian units fighting in the north at the time defected to the insurrection “at the crucial moment,” taking fighters, weapons and scarce equipment with them. He said they were joined by about 1,600 other defectors from within the Malian Army, crippling the government’s hope of resisting the onslaught.

A puzzling insight into the action / in-action behind the shifting front-line in Mali:http://africasacountry.com/2013/01/14/france-in-mali-the-end-of-the-fairytale/

Such as this oh not subtle change:
Second, virtually unremarked upon with all eyes in the East, several hundred French soldiers are deployed in Bamako to protect French citizens—of whom there are reportedly some 6,000 in Mali, of whom expatriates are a minority (press: please note). In the current emergency while the French troops are there ostensibly to protect their citizens and other civilians from terrorist attack, they implicitly secure the civilian government against its own military and against mobs like those ginned up by MP-22 and other radical associations. Meanwhile, soldiers from ECOWAS nations are arriving by the hundreds, although it is not yet clear what role they will play or where they will be stationed.

SWJ Blog
01-15-2013, 02:23 PM
French Operations in Mali Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/french-operations-in-mali-roundup)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/french-operations-in-mali-roundup) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

KingJaja
01-15-2013, 09:07 PM
I know the discussion over the next few weeks is going to be about tactics, "counter insurgency", training, how the West can better partner with African armies etc. I think that misses the big picture.

Think about this.

1. Ghana lies in the same neighbourhood (it is right next door to Cote D'Ivoire), but Ghana has been remarkably stable (just had a peaceful presidential election). The economy is growing and it is moving to "mid income" status.

It is "good governance" stupid. All the military assistance and strategy in the World will not erase the uncomfortable facts on the ground. The current state of the Malian Military is the best indicator that you are dealing with (a) a failed state and (b) extremely flaky "allies".

2. The next question is how do we make "good governance" happen. We need to come to terms with the fact that someone played a game of dice with artificial borders and gave those artificial entities "statehood" in the sixties. The neat lines in the Saharan sand mean nothing to the Tuareg people.

We have to rethink the Malian state and if necessary, let the maps reflect the reality on the ground. The more we postpone it the more time we waste.

3. We Africans need to partner with the Chinese (to help us with the economic stuff) and the West (to help us with security). The problem of "terrorism" in Africa cannot be solved without a solid economic and political strategy.

Neither the US nor France have a long-term economic strategy for that part of the World, so why not work with the Chinese to integrate the economics with the security?

I've always had my reservations about the US AFRICOM-led policy in the part of the World. The events in Mali proved me right (the massive amounts of money spent on the trans Saharan counter-terrorism initiative have been wasted).

It all starts from governance.

Fuchs
01-15-2013, 09:29 PM
I'm incredibly tired right now, but I remember something about Mali having had relatively decent governance until a year or two, until a coup d'tat happened.

KingJaja
01-15-2013, 09:37 PM
I'm incredibly tired right now, but I remember something about Mali having had relatively decent governance until a year or two, until a coup d'tat happened.

No, it didn't (if you consider the very real issues that simmered under the surface in the North, but were ignored by both the West and the Southern-led Malian government).

Fuchs
01-15-2013, 10:17 PM
No, it didn't (if you consider the very real issues that simmered under the surface in the North, but were ignored by both the West and the Southern-led Malian government).

I'm not sure that the government can be blamed. Desertification was out of their control and largely caused by the people living in the decertifying regions themselves.



Depleted land resources were a reason for Tuareg resentment of the Malian government, in that the Tuareg felt the government did not respond appropriately to the droughts and basically forced them to leave Mali. This resentment contributed to the conflict between the Tuareg and the government in the 1990s.

Over-grazing of the semi-arid lands bordering the Sahara in northern Mali and Niger, combined with widespread droughts in the 1970s and 1980s, led to the desertification of large parts of these areas.
from
The Tuareg in Mali and Niger: The Role of Desertification in Violent Conflict (http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/tuareg.htm)
by Ann Hershkowitz
ICE Case Studies
Number 151, August 2005

Dayuhan
01-15-2013, 10:35 PM
The next question is how do we make "good governance" happen. We need to come to terms with the fact that someone played a game of dice with artificial borders and gave those artificial entities "statehood" in the sixties. The neat lines in the Saharan sand mean nothing to the Tuareg people.

I don't know that anyone has the capacity to "make good governance happen". Good governance is the product of an evolutionary process; it doesn't just "happen". That process is often long and on the ugly side.

I completely agree that artificial borders have created many problems, in Africa and elsewhere, but I'm not convinced that it will help to have any outside entity, particularly a western one, trying to redraw the lines in the sand to conform to perceived reality.


We have to rethink the Malian state and if necessary, let the maps reflect the reality on the ground. The more we postpone it the more time we waste.

Who would be the "we" in that statement?

KingJaja
01-16-2013, 08:37 AM
Who would be the "we" in that statement?

"We" refers to the International Community (especially ECOWAS). Mali has to renegotiate its internal political architecture to ensure sustainable peace.

You know about South Sudan? South Sudan is the future of many African states - you can take that to the bank.

It is 50 years after independence and we now have a fair idea of which African states are workable and which African states are unworkable. Over the next few decades, this will be even clearer.

About "good governance" - it isn't a game of dice.

Dayuhan
01-16-2013, 10:55 AM
"We" refers to the International Community (especially ECOWAS).

I'm not sure there is such a thing as an "international community" in any reliably coherent sense. Nations near and far may cooperate to the extent that they see common interests, but they are pursuing their own interests, not those of any other nation or any hypothetical community.


Mali has to renegotiate its internal political architecture to ensure sustainable peace.

Possibly so, but who would negotiate, and with whom?


You know about South Sudan? South Sudan is the future of many African states - you can take that to the bank.

I don't doubt it. What I doubt is the ability of any outside party to determine where and how this should happen, and the wisdom of efforts by outside parties to make this happen.


It is 50 years after independence and we now have a fair idea of which African states are workable and which African states are unworkable. Over the next few decades, this will be even clearer.

Again, describing a country as "unworkable" is easy enough, and the term may well be accurate... but any external effort to propose or impose a solution is likely to create a good deal of trouble.


About "good governance" - it isn't a game of dice.

No, it's not a game at all. For one thing, nobody seems to know the rules. We may know bad governance when we see it, but I'm not sure any of us - or any hypothetical "we" - are in a position to determine what "good governance" means for someone else, or how they should go about achieving it.

KingJaja
01-16-2013, 01:09 PM
Again, describing a country as "unworkable" is easy enough, and the term may well be accurate... but any external effort to propose or impose a solution is likely to create a good deal of trouble.

South Sudan is an externally imposed solution. It is tricky, but inevitable. Expect more in future.

ganulv
01-16-2013, 05:23 PM
I'm incredibly tired right now, but I remember something about Mali having had relatively decent governance until a year or two, until a coup d'tat happened.
From the late '90s until last year there had been a working multiparty electoral system. I honestly don't know how much governing the government did, though.


We have to rethink the Malian state and if necessary, let the maps reflect the reality on the ground. The more we postpone it the more time we waste.
For better or worse, Westphalian sovereignty is at the heart of how modern nation states work. The MNLA does appear to be considering confederation/semi-autonomy as a possible acceptable solution to their demands, if I hear this piece (https://soundcloud.com/bbc-world-service/tuareg-mnla) correctly.

Firn
01-16-2013, 07:14 PM
I did now check up a bit on Mali, with the help that mighty Western imperialist nework. Sometimes it is important to remind oneself of the basics before writing. :D

To be honest I'm much surprised that Wikipedia has a rather long article about an unrecognized state called Azawad which was proclaimed by the rebels.


Demographics

Timbuktu census in 1950
Gao (which includes Kidal) census in 1950

Northern Mali has a population density of 1.5 people per square kilometre.[72] The Malian regions that are claimed by Azawad are listed hereafter (apart from the portion of Mopti Region claimed and occupied by the MNLA). The population figures are from the 2009 census of Mali, taken before Azawadi independence was proclaimed.[73]Since the start of the Tuareg rebellion in January 2012, probably 250,000 former inhabitants have fled from the territory.[74]


--



In July 2009, Mali's population was an estimated 14.5 million. The population is predominantly rural (68% in 2002), and 5–10% of Malians are nomadic.[60] More than 90% of the population lives in the southern part of the country, especially in Bamako, which has over 1 million residents.[60]

In 2007, about 48% of Malians were less than fifteen years old, 49% were 15–64 years old, and 3% were 65 and older.[42] The median age was 15.9 years.[42] The birth rate in 2012 was 45.2 births per 1,000, and the total fertility rate was 6.4 children per woman.[42] The death rate in 2007 was 16.5 deaths per 1,000.[42] Life expectancy at birth was 49.5 years total (47.6 for males and 51.5 for females).[42] Mali has one of the world's highest rates of infant mortality,[60] with 106 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007.[42]

If the 2009 census and the reports are mostly correct the northern territory is populated, after taking some general population growth into accout, by less then a million. Overall the population is of course very young compared to developed nations and composed of a various ethnic groups with two dominant ones, the Tuareg and Songhai.

Certainly the north is very sparsely populated and I wonder what which parts parts of the population have in their hearts and minds.

---

P.S: It seems that most of the French fighting force consists of medium forces using wheeled AFVs, which seems rather typical for French operations in similar circumstances. I think it is interesting to compare it to the kind of forces SA used in it's border wars.

davidbfpo
01-16-2013, 08:02 PM
The Arabist blog surveys the internal situation, starting with:
it might be helpful to look forward to what the French campaign is about (and what it’s not), as well as to look north to the implications for North Africa. and concludes:
What does all of this mean for northern Mali – expect periodic bombing campaigns and sustained guerilla fighting/insurgency for the remainder of the year, with the strong likelihood of an ever-present jihadi threat for the foreseeable future. It’s not ideal, not least for the residents of northern Mali, but for the broader Maghreb it is acceptable.

Link:http://www.arabist.net/blog/2013/1/16/mali-and-the-maghreb.html

A Stratfor analyst writes:
But unlike Afghanistan, with its mountainous terrain, Mali, and other areas of the arid Sahel, are easy to surveil and thus poorly suited to host terrorist training camps. With Western and African military forces converging on Mali, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb will struggle to survive.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/01/15/is-mali-a-new-line-in-the-sand-against-terror/terrorists-cannot-hide-in-the-desert

Not very convincing IMO. Mali is the same size as Afghanistan, yes it is arid mainly in the "rebel" north; the sheer scale of surveillance - especially if minus any meaningful ground coverage and 'training camps' are pre-9/11. There are ample alternatives, especially if the focus is not on attacking the 'far enemy'.

davidbfpo
01-16-2013, 08:16 PM
A fascinating biography, context and details on 'The Chameleon':
Since the seizure of northern Mali during 2012 the Malian jihadist figure Oumar Ould Hamaha has emerged from the often formless haze of rarely glimpsed AQIM kidnap groups operating in the Sahel region.

(It ends)..Despite the apparent fractures between AQIM, MOJWA, Belmokhtar and others, the case study of Oumar Ould Hamaha suggests that factional politics and rivalries is unlikely to alter the practical relationships on the ground of the jihadist elements in the Sahel region that have operated together in various guises for years.

Link:http://www.gctat.org/fr/analyses-rapports-et-notes/29-ranoc/220-oumar-ould-hamaha-a-case-study-of-the-bridges-between-three-groups.html

I've not heard of this Geneva-based think tank, their 'home' page is at:http://www.gctat.org/fr/presentation.html

Firn
01-17-2013, 12:20 PM
I took yesterday a virtual tour of northern Mali to get a better understanding of the geography and the demographics going with it. If we estimate that somewhat less of a million live in those three nothern provinces then it is important to point out that the vast majority of those is of course living along and south of the Niger. Dayuhan already cited the conflicts between Tuareg and islamist groups to which one has to add the mixed ethic and linguistic make-up.

So the population living under the de-facto rule of the militant groups is rather small and it is difficult to find prove of wide-spread support, certainly not of a single faction or movement. To achieve their recent military success the specific groups didn't to need much manpower or much popular support. To me it seems likely that the jihadis are relative few, transnational, well armed and decently trained and led for the standards of the regions. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

davidbfpo
01-17-2013, 01:09 PM
Some interesting points made, albeit from a US perspective:
But the surveillance missions in northern Mali have had only a limited effect. Islamist leaders have banned cellphones, closed Internet cafes and shut down cellular towers in an effort to cut the region off from the outside world. With the clock turned back decades, there are few electronic communications for American eavesdroppers to intercept.

General Ham said that it had been very difficult to get consistent, reliable intelligence about what he called a militant “safe haven” in Mali.

“It’s tough to penetrate...It’s tough to get access for platforms that can collect. It’s an extraordinarily tough environment for human intelligence, not just ours but the neighboring countries as well.”

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/world/africa/us-sees-hazy-threat-from-mali-militants.html?hp&_r=2&pagewanted=all&

I am not so sure about the mobile network being closed, yesterday several experienced reporters cited calling people in the insurgent north.

davidbfpo
01-17-2013, 01:18 PM
More useful for the context given The Guardian chimes in with:
The French government claim they are merely softening up the territory for military intervention led by the Malian army and a coalition of regional Ecowas forces. What they have failed to mention is that the Malian army hasn't won a military encounter against Tuareg rebels in the north since the early 1960s, at least not without the help of pro-government Tuareg and Arab militias who know the terrain. Unfortunately, these militias won't be on hand to help this time round - not in the short term at least.

(Later) The Tuareg, discredited by an association with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and other jihadist groups that only a small handful of their leaders ever really wanted, will be back where they were before the great rebellion of the early 1990s; a marginalised, harassed and vilified people living under military occupation and watching their nomadic lifestyle and culture slowly disappear.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/16/mali-french-ground-war?CMP=twt_gu

Amidst the comments was a wise one suggesting we look at the war between Morocco and Polisario in Western Sahara, a conflict in a desert, albeit one that was more conventional "hit & run" at the immense defence line built, than an insurgency amongst the people.

Firn
01-17-2013, 05:16 PM
One can certainly see part of the point the Guardian makes about the Tuareg/Moor/Arab groups and the Mali army. As I have written before two major ethnic groups seem to dominate in the northern provinces.


Mali's population consists of diverse Sub-Saharan ethnic groups, sharing similar historic, cultural, and religious traditions. Exceptions are two nomadic northern groups, the Tuaregs, a Berber people, and Maurs (or Moors), of Arabo-Berber origins. The Tuaregs traditionally have opposed the central government. Starting in June 1990 in the north, Tuaregs seeking greater autonomy led to clashes with the military. In April 1992, the government and most opposing factions signed a pact to end the fighting and restore stability in the north. Its major aims are to allow greater autonomy to the north and increase government resource allocation to what has been a traditionally impoverished region. The peace agreement was celebrated in 1996 in Timbuktu during an official and highly publicized ceremony called "Flamme de la Paix"--(peace flame).

Historically, interethnic relations throughout the rest of the country were facilitated by easy mobility on the Niger River and across the country's vast savannahs. Each ethnic group was traditionally tied to a specific occupation, all working within proximity to each other, although the distinctions were often blurred. The Bambara, Malink, Sarakole, Dogon and Songhay are farmers; the Fula or Fulani, Maur, and Tuareg are herders, while the Bozo are fishers. In recent years, this linkage has shifted considerably, as ethnic groups seek diverse, nontraditional sources of income.

Ethnic groups: Mande 50% (Bambara, Malinke, Soninke), Fula[5] 17%, Voltaic 12%, Songhai 6%, Tuareg and Moor 10%, other 5%

The Songhai seem to be farmers and should be thus mostly be settled in the souther areas of the northern provinces, along the riverbeds and lakes, especially of course along the great Niger. Ok, this ethnic map ( from the African Art Virtual Gallery (http://www.artheos.org/eng/index.html)) seems to give a general idea of the situation. Note that quite some of the recent fighting took place in the traditional homeland of the Songhai, in areas where relative little Tuareg live. (Both Songhay and Songhai seem to be valid).

http://www.artheos.org/images/4724.jpg

From the Guardian:


Even if the Malian and Ecowas troops manage to march in and recapture most of the major cities in the north, they're likely to find their enemy strangely invisible. The local youth who have been fighting for one or other of the Islamist katibat or cells will no doubt stash their Kalashnikovs, khaki robes and ammo pouches and don the uniform of the local inhabitants; a civilian robe and a turban that covers the head and face, leaving only the eyes exposed. A junior army officer from Lagos, Cotonou or even Bamako will find it very hard to tell the Islamist apart from the innocent native city-dweller or nomad. Local informants will offer their services and summary executions and brutality against both the guilty and the innocent will ensue. Anger against "white" northerners - Tuareg, Arab and Fulani – that has been brewing among southern black Malians and the darker skinned northerners such as the Songhoi is likely to spill over into racial and ethnic violence. Vigilante groups, such as the feared Songhoi militia, the Ganda Izo, are ready to roar into action with their machetes and petrol cans. Human rights organisations will have to work overtime.

This linguistic map ( from the Fragile states center (http://www.fragilestates.org/2012/05/02/west-africa-ethnic-divisions-state-fragility-and-regional-solutions/)) shows a similar picture in the specific area:

http://www.fragilestates.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/West-Africa-Ethnolinguistic-Demography.jpg

It is of course of great importance to partly ignore the state borders, especially under the present circumstances, Afghanistan docet. The raid in Algeria was certain not needed to give further prove of that.

Guardian:



This is the land where the local Tuareg or Arab in his souped-up turbo 4x4 is king. Iyad Ag Ghali, the Tuareg leader of the Salafist Ansar Dine militia, is a master of the kind of hit-and-run guerrilla warfare that suits the desert conditions and the sheer size of territory, roughly equal to that of Spain. His mujahideen showed their verve last Sunday by capturing the small town of Diabaly, north of Mopti, with a lightening strike that originated over the border in Mauritania. This ability to crisscross borders is another important aspect of the Islamists' Houdini-esque style of combat.

In this case it was a raid out of the traditional Moorish homeland (in Mauritania) into a Southern/Central region of Mali populated by quite different ethnic and linguistic groups. With a vast area of relatively speedily crossed terrain and a rather ineffective army it is no surprise that small organized forces with enough pickups and fuel can mount such strikes.

ganulv
01-17-2013, 07:26 PM
Note that quite some of the recent fighting took place in the traditional homeland of the Songhai, in areas where relative little Tuareg live.
Northern Songhay languages show clear historical influence from Tuareg (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=GzZQGgQOF9cC&oi=fnd&pg=PA75&dq=Northern+Songhay+&ots=kgvz8m2Zb8&sig=nHKTMqhu-krBsBHeu1T3wDLyjZI#v=onepage&q=Northern%20Songhay&f=false), though, so there is a longstanding history of interaction. (Mostly unrelated note: one of my favorite ethnographies (http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo3775087.html) is set amongst the Songhay.)

Firn
01-18-2013, 10:09 AM
Northern Songhay languages show clear historical influence from Tuareg (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=GzZQGgQOF9cC&oi=fnd&pg=PA75&dq=Northern+Songhay+&ots=kgvz8m2Zb8&sig=nHKTMqhu-krBsBHeu1T3wDLyjZI#v=onepage&q=Northern%20Songhay&f=false), though, so there is a longstanding history of interaction. (Mostly unrelated note: one of my favorite ethnographies (http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo3775087.html) is set amongst the Songhay.)

Nice catch. It is rather obvious considering history and geography that there has been much interaction between both, interesting to see part of it imprinted into the language of one ethnic. And of course it is rather clear that this doesn't mean that there isn't conflict between them, as time shows us. The strong French impact on good old Saxon Anglish didn't result in an ever peaceful coexistence....

There must have certainly a fair bit of trading between the relative fertile and densely populated regions around the Niger and the cultures on the southern coasts of our mare nostrum, mostly done by the nomadic tribes like the Tuareg. If you look at the maps it is rather obvious that the vast desert areas are quite foreign to the 'dark-skinned' (All is relative, considering that in the dear USA fellow countrymen were sometimes not considered 'white' enough). I wonder which part played the spread of Islam.

As usual the history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Songhai_Empire) is quite interesting. It always amazes me that people tend to imprint the current human borders on older ones. People move, people stay, nothing remains the same.