Small Wars Council

Islamic attack on British Soldier, Woolwich Barracks

Tukhachevskii — Thu, 23 May 2013 13:14:43 GMT

A British soldier was brutally murdered yesterday (Wednesday 22nd May 20113). As usual the politicians (in particular the git Boris Johnson) were quick to state that the attack had nothing to do with Islam. Allah-u-Akbar to that brother! With politicians like that who needs enemies. Once again I hear that magic word "radicalised" being thrown around (no doubt to help liberals sleep better at night). And once again I know we (they in actual fact) are going to gloss over the deeper causes of this heinous crime.

Apparently the two were known to the security service and police.

Remembering a Hero Giovanni Falcone

Bill Moore — Thu, 23 May 2013 06:52:49 GMT

The FBI honored the Falcone today on the 20 anniversary of his assassination. This was one of the first men to understand adversarial global networks and worked to develop his own global network to degrade the Mafia. I'm including the FBI public affairs release that honors him and the Wiki article about him that in my view makes him a hero with few peers. One of his quotes, one he lived and died by was:

Quote:

He who is silent and bows his head dies every time he does so. He who speaks aloud and walks with his head held high dies only once.

�Giovanni Falcone

http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2012/may/falcone_051712

Remembering Giovanni Falcone
Italian Judge Assassinated by the Mafia 20 Years Ago

Quote:

On May 23, 1992, Mafia hit men detonated a roadside bomb that killed Giovanni Falcone, his wife, and three bodyguards as they drove near Palermo, Italy. The assassination was payback for all the organized criminals Falcone had put behind bars as a prosecutor and judge.

To mark the 20th anniversary of his murder, a tribute was held at FBI Headquarters to remember Falcone as a courageous opponent of the Mafia�and one of the earliest advocates of international cooperation in the fight against organized crime.

Director Robert S. Mueller, who was joined by two former FBI Directors and several Italian dignitaries in paying tribute to Falcone, noted, �Long before �globalization� became part of our vernacular, Judge Falcone recognized that no one department or country could fight crime alone. He went to great lengths to cultivate strong relationships�friendships�with partners here in the United States and around the world.�

Quote:

�Judge Falcone always understood that there was strength in numbers,� Mueller said, �and that defeating the Mafia would require true solidarity. Due to his foresight, we have dealt a devastating blow to organized criminal syndicates.�

The relationships that Falcone forged years ago between the Italian National Police and the FBI �have borne tremendous fruit in this age of international crime and terrorism,� Mueller added. �Those friendships have set the standard for global cooperation among law enforcement.�

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Falcone

Quote:

Exhausted and frustrated by the antagonism in Palermo, Falcone accepted a post in the Ministry of Justice in Rome offered to him by Claudio Martelli, the new minister of Justice in a new government of Giulio Andreotti in March 1991. The transfer was initially seen as a capitulation by Falcone, but he himself thought of it as a tactical move to better fight the Mafia. His first action was to prepare a degree to repair the disastrous sentence by Supreme Court judge Corrado Carnevale, known as the �sentence-killer�, that allowed most of the remaining defendants of the Maxi Trial to walk free from prison. Due to the Martelli-decree led to the immediate re-arrest of the Mafia bosses.[22]

While in Rome he started to restructure the Italian prosecution system, creating district offices to fight the Mafia and a national office to fight organized crime.[22] Next was his move to prevent Carnevale to review the sentence of the Maxi Trial. In a blow to the Mafia, the Maxi Trial convictions were upheld by the Supreme Court in January 1992. To the surprise of many, Falcone's move to Rome was very successful. He achieved a genuine revolution in the judiciary. The Mafia began to understand that Falcone was even more dangerous in Rome than he had been in Palermo.

Connections 2013 Conference on Professional Wargaming, July 22-25, Dayton OH

Brian Train — Wed, 22 May 2013 17:29:28 GMT

The Connections 2013 conference will be held 22-25 July in Dayton Ohio, at the Tech^Edge Centre for Innovation near Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

Connections is the only national event dedicated specifically to professional military wargaming. Organized and chaired since its beginning in 1993 by (now retired) Air Force COL Matt Caffrey, the annual Connections conference has worked to advance the art, science and application of serious wargaming by bringing together all elements of the field (military, commercial and academic) so participants can exchange information on achievements, best practices and needs.

The theme for 2013 is: "Enhancing Wargaming Support to Budget Decisions."
Given the current and future uncertainty over US Department of Defense budgets, this is a timely theme indeed.

Another valuable element of Connections is the chance to meet leaders from across the spectrum of wargaming. Past attendees and speakers have included Larry Bond, James F. Dunnigan, David Isby, Joe Miranda, Al Nofi, Peter Perla, John Prados and many more.

Keynote speakers for this year are:

- COL Chris Froehlich, Chief Strategic Planning Division, Air Force Material Command
- Dr. Peter Perla, author of The Art of Wargaming, Lead, Wargaming, Centre for Naval Analysis
- Dr. Thomas Allen, Deputy Director for Studies and Analysis, Joint Staff

Connections is open to all contributors to the field of professional wargaming: military, government, defense contractor, academic, and recreational. It is an unclassified event. Many of the attendees are recreational wargamers in their spare time, but the emphasis of the conference is on discussion of activity and issues in professional wargaming, from the military, commercial and academic perspectives.

Because of sequestration across most of the US Federal Government, there will be expanded opportunities for people to participate virtually in the conference via VTC, phone or Web. Information on how to participate virtually will be available shortly from the website.

On the other hand, one of the most exciting elements of Connections 2013 will NOT lend itself to virtual participation. Luftwaffe Colonel Uwe L. Heilmann will be bringing a NATO team to conduct a "game lab". He and his team will conduct a manual NATO wargame that was designed for leadership development. Participants will them discuss how the wargame could be modified to enhance its ability to provide budget insights, some or all the modifications will be implemented, then the wargame will be played again. These game labs are a recent feature of Connections conferences and have proven very popular.

See the conference website and agenda at http://connections-wargaming.com/

Contact Matt Caffrey at matthewbcaffreyjr@gmail.com
for further information.

Thanks for your interest,

Brian Train

We will remember them: 1982 Hyde Park Bombing man charged

davidbfpo — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:08:06 GMT

What a surprise:

Quote:

A man has been charged with four counts of murder over the 1982 bombing in Hyde Park which killed 11 people, the Crown Prosecution Service has said. The four members of the Royal Household Cavalry were travelling to Buckingham Palace when they were killed.

Thin BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22625104

Slightly more in he prosecution (CPS) press statement:http://www.cps.gov.uk/news/latest_ne...yde_park_bomb/

There is a recent SWJ article on the Hyde park bombings, there were two bombs that day, the cavalry and a military band playing in the nearby park:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...n-july-20-1982

There is a long running 'catch all' thread on Northern Ireland:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3576

The Provisional IRA had a saying "We have not gone away", well nor has the police investigation and now we await the trial process.

Hackers could be fair game for deadly force, cyberwar experts say

AdamG — Wed, 22 May 2013 01:58:13 GMT

From March, but worth thinking about.

Quote:

March 22, 2013 � CSO � Deadly force against organized hackers could be justified under international law, according to a document released Thursday by a panel of legal and cyber warfare experts.

Use of lethal force on those behind a cyberattack on a nation would be legal if the virtual attack meets criteria similar to those currently accepted for real-world warfare, said Michael N. Schmitt, chairman of the International Law Department at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I.

Schmitt is the editor of the Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare, a 300-page book put together by a score of experts at the request of NATO and published by Cambridge University Press.

http://www.csoonline.com/article/730...ar-experts-say

AQ training in South Africa?

davidbfpo — Tue, 21 May 2013 17:13:28 GMT

A very odd South African report, alleging AQ had training facilities in South Africa, which became untouchable and a surveillance operation was closed:

Quote:

The police’s specialised unit, Crimes Against the State (CATS) and the State Security Agency (SSA) have been monitoring the training of al-Qaeda terrorists in South Africa for several years, without taking any action. A year-long investigation by the Daily Maverick’s DE WET POTGIETER has revealed surprising inaction by police despite incriminating evidence about secret military training camps and sophisticated sniper training at three well-documented locations as well as several others across South Africa. These subversive activities have taken place at a farm near the notorious Apartheid police hit squad camp at Vlakplaas outside Pretoria, as well as a secluded farm in the mountains of the Klein Karoo.

Link:http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/artic...-south-africa/

Those accused have exercised the 'right of reply':http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/artic...krat-responds/

Just how South Africa works is a moot point, likewise some of the allegations made. The next one I'd not seen before:

Quote:

The fugitive ‘white widow’ of a 7/7 London bomber was a key link between Al Qaeda terrorists in Pakistan and their fighters in East Africa, it has emerged. Muslim convert Samantha Lewthwaite, who was married to Kings Cross bomber Germaine Lindsay, spent two years working for the deadly extremist organisation in South Africa using a false name.

Link:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...me%5Eheadlines

All quite puzzling, as I am sure the USSS are - President Obama has a trip soon to South Africa.

(Added) Found an update on the political reaction from a more well-known, South African defence periodical:http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.ph...d=74&Itemid=30

RFI: Drones for border control in a rainy forest environment

davidbfpo — Tue, 21 May 2013 15:23:42 GMT

From M-A Lagrange. Looking to identify an experiment, probably done in South America, using drones for border control in a wild rainy forest environment.

My question is simple: how effective is / was it for border control and tracking individuals/groups movements?

Thanks in advance.

Marc

Pakistan crumbling & rusty: a train journey

davidbfpo — Sun, 19 May 2013 12:02:16 GMT

In his last despatch from Pakistan the NYT's Declan Walsh travelled on the crumbling railway system and IMO provides a vivid, human portrait of a country I suspect many SWC readers would prefer to ignore:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/wo...pagewanted=all

There's also a photo series - some tell more than the author writes

Friends have travelled on Indian railways and they bear no comparison to Pakistan - they gave up trying to book long journeys, the booking office didn't even have a computer.

Global Piracy Trends

Bill Moore — Sun, 19 May 2013 03:34:45 GMT

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crime-...3BtaA--;_ylv=3

I found it interesting that the most active area for piracy now is off the Indonesian coast again. Navy seems to be doing a good job off the Horn of Africa.

Quote:

Indonesia�s 17,500 islands and their surrounding waters now take the title as the world�s most heavily pirated.

Quote:

Pirates arm themselves no matter where on the globe they operate, but perhaps no pirates on earth arm themselves with such high-caliber weapons as the pirates in Nigeria have over the last year.

Movement towards a sane drug strategy?

Bill Moore — Sun, 19 May 2013 02:48:52 GMT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...ck%3APosition1

Western leaders study 'gamechanging' report on global drugs trade

Review by Organisation of American States on illicit drugs 'could mark beginning of the end' of prohibition

Quote:

Publication of the Organisation of American States (OAS) review, commissioned at last year's Cartagena Summit of the Americas attended by Barack Obama, reflects growing dissatisfaction among Latin American countries with the current global policy on illicit drugs. It spells out the effects of the policy on many countries and examines what the global drugs trade will look like if the status quo continues. It notes how rapidly countries' unilateral drugs policies are evolving, while at the same time there is a growing consensus over the human costs of the trade. "Growing media attention regarding this phenomenon in many countries, including on social media, reflects a world in which there is far greater awareness of the violence and suffering associated with the drug problem," Jos Miguel Insulza, the secretary general of the OAS, says in a foreword to the review. "We also enjoy a much better grasp of the human and social costs not only of drug use but also of the production and transit of controlled substances."

Quote:

In a statement, the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which campaigns for changes in drug laws and is supported by the former presidents of several South American states, said that publication of the review would break "the taboo that blocked for so long the debate on more humane and efficient drug policy". The Commission said that it was "time that governments around the world are allowed to responsibly experiment with regulation models that are tailored to their realities and local need".

This is one area where I hope the global community breaks away from U.S. leadership since we have over politicized this issue to such as extreme we're incapable of providing guidance based on logic. This ties into the privatization of our prison systems and their lobbying power to keep outdated laws on the books so they can maximize their profits. We have a lot of house cleaning to do before we're ready to lead in this area.

Breaking the taboo about drugs

In an open letter, former Latin American leaders call for legal regulation to help undermine organized crime

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...cy-drugs-trade

Quote:

After more than four decades of a failed war on drugs, calls for a change in strategy are growing louder by the day. In Latin America, the debate is positively deafening. Statesmen from Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay are taking the lead for transformations in their own drug regime, which has set a strong dynamic of change across the region and around the world. Their discussion has expanded to the US, where public opinion toward regulation is also changing.

Quote:

The leadership demonstrated by President Santos and the OAS secretary general is welcomed. But the report is just the start leaders across the Americas need to take this study seriously and consider how their own policies can be improved. In doing so, they will be breaking the vicious cycle of violence, corruption, and overcrowded prisons and will put people's health and security first.

Signed by,

Fernando Henrique Cardoso
former president of Brazil, chair

Cesar Gaviria
former president of Colombia

Ricardo Lagos
former president of Chile

George P. Shultz
former Secretary of State, United States, honorary chair

Paul Volcker
former Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve and of the Economic Recovery Board

Louise Arbour
former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, President of the International Crisis Group

Ernesto Zedillo
former president of Mexico

ANSF attrition rate just over a third per year

davidbfpo — Fri, 17 May 2013 19:57:37 GMT

As the alliance strategy for drawing down in Afghanistan depends on the ANSF "standing up" finding the attrition rate is over a third is not good news:http://www.emptywheel.net/2013/05/01...f-352000-goal/

A UK newspaper report, which I missed in March 2013, based on a British assessment of the ANSF:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-8555238.html

Hat tip to this subject comes from a blogger's analysis 'What Is the Attrition Rate for Afghan Special Operations Forces?':http://www.emptywheel.net/2013/05/16...ations-forces/

Quote:

Afghan Special Force size cites merely the authorized number of commandos, not the actual number that were assigned at the time, which, as of late November, 2012, was only 83% of the authorized level.

Now note that the Defense Department stated that 621 new commandos were trained from April through September of 2012. Yet, if we look at the SIGAR data, actual assigned force level dropped from 10,617 to 10,193 in the closest comparable time period (May through September of 2012). Taken together, those numbers suggest that over 1000 personnel disappeared from the ranks during this time period. If we are generous and take this loss of 1000 as representing how many are lost in six months instead of five, we still see an overall loss of 2000 commandos per year. For a force size of just over 10,000, that is an attrition rate of almost 20% a year.

A 20% annual attrition rate in the elite Afghan units, who are reported to be far more reliable, motivated and trained, makes me wonder from afar what the main ANSF attrition rate is.

GCHQ on Cyber Security

davidbfpo — Thu, 16 May 2013 21:43:23 GMT

Quote:

Sir Iain Lobban, Director GCHQ, contributed an article entitled "Countering the cyber threat to business" for the Spring 2013 edition of the Institute of Directors Big Picture policy journal.

In the article, Director describes the nature and scale of the threat to businesses from cyberspace, why cyber security should be at the top of boards' agendas and the role GCHQ is playing in helping counter the threats.

The article acts as a foreword to some practical steps on how business leaders and boards can make their organisations safer from cyber attacks.

From the GCHQ press release, which has a link to the 4.9 Mb article (size is due to artwork, colour etc and is only sixteen pages):ow.ly/l66VP

Report - Making the Soldier Decisive on Future Battlefields

gute — Wed, 15 May 2013 20:39:12 GMT

Came across this report by the Board on Army Science and Technology. They discussed possible changes to the squad organization, but nothing in-depth. Mostly about training and reducing the weight of combat gear.

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18321

Winston Churchill on Afghanistan

davidbfpo — Tue, 14 May 2013 15:11:41 GMT

Quote:

Financially it is ruinous. Morally it is wicked. Militarily it is an open question, and politically it is a blunder.

Taken from an article by Con Coughlin, the author of a new book ' Churchill�s First War: Young Winston and the Taliban', published by Pan Macmillan:http://www.amazon.com/Churchills-Fir...nd+the+Taliban or http://www.amazon.co.uk/Churchills-F...nd+the+Taliban

Churchill wrote in his own book these words as a criticism of Imperial (British) India's policy of 'Forward Defence' in Afghanistan, that had been followed for sixty years at the time:

Quote:

Churchill wrote these words in 1897 when, as a young cavalry officer, he found himself fighting the great-great-grandfathers of the modern Taliban movement. Churchill came very close to losing his own life during the six weeks he spent on the North-West Frontier, and his summary of the British effort in the 19th century eerily echoes the sentiments many British soldiers must now feel as they seek to wind down operations in Afghanistan.

Link:http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/co...e-8600516.html

An independent review of the book:http://www.spectator.co.uk/books/890...s-own-destiny/

IMO his words apply today.

Ground truth from Helmand PRT: two civilian views

davidbfpo — Mon, 13 May 2013 20:07:35 GMT

An up beat, nay optimistic report by the UK head of the Helmand PRT, which opens with:

Quote:

As always, I’m spending plenty of time persuading friends, colleagues, and anyone who will listen, that: no, it isn’t all going fall to pieces after 2014.

Then there's:

Quote:

If people trust their government they will support it – and this, rather than external support, will be the stoutest defence against the threat of relapse into extremism. With this in mind the focus of my team in Helmand has been on boosting the legitimacy of government in the eyes of the people....As we approach 2014 and accelerate our own draw down, we have to be candid about the risks. Our job is to mitigate them to the extent possible, not to be in denial. Many are concerned that the Taliban are poised to retake many districts as NATO troops pull back.

Link:http://blogs.fco.gov.uk/catrionalain...ent-extremism/

The author refers to an interview the American, Carter Malkasian who was the District Transition Advisor for Helmand PRT in Garmser for two years and the author of 'War Comes to Garmser'. I have the book, but have too many to read, perhaps one day. The interview is very interesting.

Amidst it is this passage:

Quote:

Today’s government has brought schools and healthcare and just a little freedom for women. I do not think most Pashtuns want to see the Taliban return to power. Nor do I think most Pashtuns see the Taliban as hated enemies. I think that they would prefer peaceful reconciliation to years of war.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...t-the-war.html

Incidentally there are threads on the USMC in Helmand, the British in Afghanistan and PRT / political advisers.

The first-order duty of people to speak truth unto power.

davidbfpo — Fri, 10 May 2013 20:34:03 GMT

The title is taken from testimony by Lord Hennessey, a journalist-cum-historian, who with two others gave evidence to the House of Commons Select Committee on Defence on:

Quote:

a strategic inquiry, Towards the Next Defence and Security Review.

Not an exciting matter for the great British public and I expect many others. Within the testimony are many gems on how the UK does and doesn't do defence policy:http://www.publications.parliament.u...i/uc109001.htm

Here is one passage, Quinlan's law (named after a MoD civil servant of note):

Quote:

A theorem: In matters of military contingency, the expected, precisely because it is expected, is not to be expected. Rationale: What we expect, we plan and provide for; what we plan and provide for, we thereby deter; what we deter does not happen. What does happen is what we did not deter, because we did not plan and provide for it, because we did not expect it.

Another witness, an academic strategist, Professor Julian Lindley-French, who is British and currently based in The Netherlands, has some enlightening remarks, especially on alliance matters. His blog is:http://lindleyfrench.blogspot.co.uk/

In one post the Professor is straight-talking:

Quote:

The Royal Navy�s motto is; if you want peace, prepare for war. Thankfully, Britain today does not have to prepare for war. However, in a world full of friction if Britain is to help prevent conflict injurious to its national interests it must think and act strategically. Therefore, SDSR 2015 must finally look beyond Afghanistan and not simply re-fight it better. Indeed, the switch from so-called campaigning to contingency operations will make the 2015 review as close to a grand strategic year zero as Britain has known for a century. It is an opportunity to be seized not squandered.

Link:http://lindleyfrench.blogspot.co.uk/...-of-spear.html

No wonder Whitehall-Westminster prefer to make grand statements, but as our American allies know capability is needed with will. Just whether the UK has a strategy today is a moot point, plenty of policy or is it called retrenchment?

Hat tip to 'Red Rat' for the pointer to the testimony.

SWJ and Open-Source Education

bourbon — Thu, 09 May 2013 14:03:14 GMT

What role � if any � could Small Wars Journal play in the open-source education trend that is disrupting higher education?

The Future of AQ: Foresight Project (CSIS)

davidbfpo — Thu, 09 May 2013 10:18:09 GMT

Hat tip to a "lurker":

Quote:

CSIS (the Canadian one) has done a really rather good foresight paper about the future of AQ

Link:.https://www.csis.gc.ca/pblctns/cdmct...130501_eng.pdf

Just over eighty pages looking forward to 2018, with sections on: AQ core & AQ in Iraq, AQIM, AQ in East Africa and AQAP.

This thread fits in with other strategic threads in this section.

Ranger Training 1942

Bill Moore — Mon, 06 May 2013 02:00:33 GMT

Excellent series of 9 videos on utube demonstrating practical and extremely tough physical and mental conditioning. Some of the most pragmatic obstacle course training I have seen. Suspect we wouldn't be allow to run these today, but then again they were training for combat with peer competitors and the outcome was uncertain. You can get the jest of it in the first three videos, but recommend looking at video 9 also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98G_xIPSgXA

Comparing British & French CT; tough and tougher?

davidbfpo — Thu, 02 May 2013 20:22:29 GMT

A new book this week 'Countering Terrorism in Britain and France� by Dr Frank Foley, has had some coverage here:

Quote:

He, too, had long been baffled by the varied approaches. And one thing that has become clear from his research is that the reason has little to do with the European court and much more to do with the different recent histories of the two countries and how their institutions have developed.

Link to an article focussing on the UK's inability to deport Abu Qatada:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...h-jihadis.html

An ICSR podcast:http://icsr.info/2013/05/icsr-semina...in-and-france/

Three years ago I posted the thread 'Londonistan: Muslim communities in France & UK:

Quote:

Largely for historical reasons IMHO neither the UK or the USA closely look at how France has responded to the violent Jihad and Muslim communities. Plus of course the language barrier.

Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16376

Eleven and a half years after 9/11, we still don�t know.

davidbfpo — Thu, 02 May 2013 19:39:33 GMT

An opinion piece by Marc Sageman 'The Stagnation of Research on Terrorism':

Quote:

After the Boston Marathon bombings, it is time to reflect on what has been learned over the past 11 and a half years. The surprise is that, over all, the same stale arguments about �how can this happen?� are debated over and over again�with very little new insight....

Americans have an unshakable belief in technology, and the bulk of the original money went to �disruptive technologies� using advances in computer science to defeat an abstract enemy.....The hope was that those cutting-edge tools would anticipate the tactics of the enemy, but they failed to deliver on their promise....What the government did not support was the methodical accumulation of detailed and comprehensive data.

On the government's analysts:

Quote:

Young analysts have access to a wealth of classified information but have no formal methodological background to be able to synthesize new insights. They are under constant pressure to produce timely short pieces and have little time to read widely or reflect. The system forces them to jump from topic to topic, quickly looking for confirming evidence, and generally neglecting refuting evidence.

He ends:

Quote:

As it stands now, we are condemned to rehash the same old tiresome and irrelevant arguments that prevent us from asking key questions about the turn to political violence.

What makes a young man adopt extremist views?

How exactly does the Internet affect that transformation?

How large are pools of potential violent extremists in the West?

What triggers an extremist protester to turn violent?

What kind of signals does someone, who turns to violence, give off?

What specific signal distinguishes a violent from a non-violent extremist?

Eleven and a half years after 9/11, we still don�t know.

Link:http://chronicle.com/blogs/conversat...-on-terrorism/

What is the state of al Qaeda and Terrorism two years after Bin Laden? Vote here!

CWOT — Thu, 02 May 2013 13:23:40 GMT

Two years ago, Osama Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan marking one of the most significant milestones in the history of terrorism and counterterrorism. Two and a half years ago, I began conducting surveys to assess what the impact might be if Osama Bin Laden ever met his demise. #These surveys have since become an annual assessment I generate to gauge public perceptions of the threat of al Qaeda and terrorism in general. #While Bin Laden may be gone, terrorism continues and the past year has demonstrated how terrorist attacks might manifest themselves in a variety of ways from Benghazi to the Boston Marathon bombing.

Today, I'm launching the fifth iteration of the al Qaeda Strategy/Post Bin Laden Survey. Thanks to those that have participated in versions #1 - Does Bin Laden Matter- Jan.2, 2011, #2 - AQ Strategy 2011-2012 - April 27. 2011, #3 - Terrorism Post-Bin Laden - May 2, 2011, #4 One Year After Bin Laden - May 2, 2012.#You can find the results at this link which hosts the results of past surveys.

This poll is shorter and a bit different than past surveys. #Realizing there have been changes in terrorism, I opened the questions up a bit to include new emerging trends. #However, I did repeat some questions verbatim so we can see how our collective thinking has changed over time.

Thanks in advance for contributing to the survey. And anyone is welcome to participate - the more votes the better the results. I'll begin posting the results and comparisons with past data sets in a few weeks. #Here is the link to the survey:https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/2yearsafterBinLaden"

Thanks to all Small Wars Journal Participants for taking the surveys over the years and I look forward to posting a copy of the results here!

Colonel Mathieu, the para CO, in the film, the 'Battle of Algiers'

davidbfpo — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:01:07 GMT

The controversial film 'Battle of Algiers' appears in may threads on SWC, but the linked article is about the actor who portrayed Colonel Mathieu and is worth reading. Some of the pithy comments will resonate on the dilemmas of fighting an internal war, as France saw Algeria and other 'small wars'.

Maybe the Colonel was a man for his times, not today?

Quote:

Mathieu is the key to the central scene of the film: the moment when he is cross-examined by international journalists about torture. Accused by journalists of being evasive about the methods of victory, he rounds on them. He reminds them of the consequences of blind terrorism:

"Is it legal to set off bombs in public places?... No, gentlemen, believe me. It is a vicious circle. We could talk for hours to no avail because that is not the problem. The problem is this: the FLN want to throw us out of Algeria and we want to stay".

He underlines that there was a political consensus, from right to left, in support of destroying the FLN rebellion.

"We are here for that reason alone. We are neither madmen nor sadists. Those who call us fascists forget the role many of us played in the Resistance. Those who call us Nazis don�t know that some of us survived Dachau and Buchenwald. We are soldiers. Our duty is to win".

At which point Mathieu throws the question back at the journalists:

"Therefore to be precise, it is my turn to ask a question. Should France stay in Algeria? If your answer is still yes, then you must accept all the consequences".

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/martin-...mbodied-france

There is a thread in 'Historians', where this post may be merged to, dependent on the response; France's war in Algeria: telling the story: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=15864

UK CT was lucky this time

davidbfpo — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 20:46:44 GMT

After the 1984 Brighton hotel bombing an PIRA spokesman stated:

Quote:

Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once

Today six aspiring Jihadist terrorists pleaded guilty to plotting an attack @ Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, in June 2012, on a protest meeting held by the English Defence League (EDL), commonly labelled an extreme right / nationalist group.

Luckily:

Quote:

...by the time the group arrived the crowd of around 450 protestors had completely dispersed.

What is significant IMHO is this is the first Jihadist planned attack on the EDL in the UK. It only failed as they arrived late. The six were all UK citizens, of Bangladeshi and Kashmiri origin, from East Birmingham mainly; their prepared leaflets stated:

Quote:

To the EDL (English Drunkards League). O enemies of Allah! We have heard and seen you openly insulting the final Messenger of Allah... you should know that for every action there is a reaction. Today is a day of retaliation (especially) for your blasphemy of Allah and his Messenger Muhammad. We love death more than you love life. The penalty for blasphemy of Allah and his Messenger Muhammad is death.

The attack was discovered after a routine traffic stop, as one car used came up as being uninsured:

Quote:

The gang had purchased car insurance over the phone earlier that day but because the wrong registration number had been provided, the car flashed up as uninsured.

See:http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/ap...dar?CMP=twt_gu

The car was seized and the contents were discovered when the recovery operator opened the boot, to conduct an inventory. Their weapons:

Quote:

..two previously stolen sawn-off shotguns and nine cartridges, 11 bladed items, parts of a partially constructed pipe bomb, a firework-based IED containing 359 nails and 93 ball bearings...

Photos:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22353636

Only then did the police discover what the plotters intended. Needless to say there are other aspects, but the police and partners were not aware of the attacker's intentions or assembly of weapons.

Police press release, with video of the routine stop:http://www.west-midlands.police.uk/l...se.asp?ID=4658

Two BBC reports, general and 'did the police miss the plot':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054

A comment by the EDL's leftist opponents:http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/edl-demo-bomb-plot/

What will our expedition to Afghanistan teach us?

jcustis — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 02:52:14 GMT

Post up your top five lessons that you hope are gleaned from our long stay in AFG. Whether we have the capacity to grasp the lesson is important, but not critical.

In no particular order, mine are:

1) The national policy goals should be clear and concise, and the integrated plan to achieve them must be properly resourced. Make sure everyone understands the goals and the plan.

2) We can't expect a tribal society to drink the democratic Kool-Aid just because we say so. The manner in which Karzai controlled the levers to choose provincial governors, and they in turn the district governors and the police chiefs, should have been a warning that our wants did not nest with reality. Those who benefit from his patronage won't be there to protect him when Karzai is strung up in a Kabul square.

3) The FOB concept was another massive failure, considering the need to secure the population and obvious approaches that work.

4) When the security forces you are training start turning on you, it is a clue. Pay attention and don't blame the victims.

5) Our disregard for the nexus of drugs, narco-warlords, and the Taliban connection, prolonged the war. Good men died because possession of ten kilos of heroin didn't warrant action by the toothless courts, among other rule of law shortcomings.

The bonus lesson is that we should have lived intermingled with the population. No commuting to work...no return to the COP at night for hot chow and a cot. If we really want to deal with rural insurgency, we've got to own it, every minute of every hour of every day. The insurgents do, and that's why they will prevail.

NGOs in Africa: Assets or Liabilities?

bourbon — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 22:11:05 GMT

NGOs in Africa: Assets or Liabilities?, by Abdul Ghelleh. African Executive, May 2013.

Quote:

I came to the conclusion, however, that the overwhelming majority of the NGOs do more harm than good to livelihoods and sustainable development in Africa. Here is my charge sheet: NGOs artificially sustain a false economy whereby they push huge amounts of cash into the pockets of corrupted local African partners while taking most of the cash back to their private bank accounts in Europe and elsewhere. Yes, they do pay the salaries of a few people here and there who support their families. But that�s not my point. The NGOs actually work against home-grown developmental strategies in Africa.

The NGO operatives don�t want the recycling of aid operations � which creates chronic dependency and corruption within the receiving societies � to end. For example, NGOs are not prepared to cede some power or train local people to take over in the future, and they don�t give the confidence necessary to carry out the work to local government personnel of the countries that they operate in. Africans have the experience and the expertise to own the operations of the NGOs, but actually the foreign bosses of the NGOs want to retain power in order to continue the dependency culture that they have created.

I don�t know anything directly about the subject, but the broader theme of how perverse incentives can infect even the best of intentions is something that I find both fascinating and tragic.

The World's Most Powerful Mercenary Armies

davidbfpo — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 13:39:05 GMT

A quick review by Business Insider:http://www.businessinsider.com/most-...#ixzz2RLM04tgP

Yes, there are more than Blackwater; although for obscure reasons it has two slots in the article.

Voices from Poland

kowalskil — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 18:02:10 GMT

A Book, entitled "How Polish People Helped Germans Murder Jews;" was published recently (January 2013) in Poland.

#http://www.czarnaowca.pl/literatura_...w_m,p720952114
I hope it will be translated into English. The author, Stefan Zgliczynski, is a journalist associated with the Polish version of Le Monde Diplomatique. His book generated many interesting comments on a Polish website:

http://www.polityka.pl/forum/1159278...679#commentBox

The link below will take you to selected observations (translated by me).

#http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/xenophobia.html

Thay are worth reading and thinking about.