Use of polling as a metric
as well as Malysia, Indonesia and the southern Philippines where societal rules make it difficult to talk to women, difficult for them to give an honest opinion.
Far more importantly and harmfully to polling in the western sense, all respondents are due to innate politeness going to tell you in part what they THINK you want to hear and in pure pragmatism, tell you in part what is beneficial to them or their kin or friends. The percentage of politeness and pragmatism will vary dependent upon who the pollster is and on the subject of the poll -- but those two factors will always skew the poll results.
Recall also Al Taqqiya -- and that it applies based on not to whom one is speaking but to the end recipient...
Recall also the rule of thumb; If given a figure, decrement or enhance it by 80% depending on which way will make the provider look less good. Born hagglers. Neither of those things is a lie in the western sense; the first is dissimulation religiously encouraged (some believe mandated), the second is telling you something that makes the teller look good -- which is required -- or is what he thinks you'd like to hear. Not immoral or wrong, just different. Really different.
Moderator's note: Today Bob's World has posed a question, in a thread on Afghanistan, which deserved this thread's creation - on Post No.4, so start there and return here!
Use of polling as a metric
The issue of metrics / performance indicators has been discussed before on at least this thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3895
Today Bob's World has posed a question, in a thread on Afghanistan, which dserves a seperate thread's creation. Alas this is after a few posts commenting, so this post will appear in the midst of the thread and not at the start.
Bob's World's question:
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The key is to use polling of the populace as your primary metrics. Actually, I created a model for for this type of targeting that JSOTF-P has been employing for determing what projects to take on, where, etc for best effect. Coltroup briefed it at the last PASOC. He seemed to be pleased with the results, but you have better data than I do in that regard.
On another, earlier thread on Metrics I cannot recall this point being made and it is not my field. So instead I will relate an account by a recognised, local (UK) expert on polling ethnic minority communities - discussed after a frustrating and eventually successful polling of a Muslim community.
The polling was originally specified to be made by phone contact, on grounds of cost; this was rejected and personal interviews chosen. The poll had to include all sections of the community - notably women - and it took repeated visits to establish trust before women could be spoken to. Youth were slightly easier, but more difficult to find at home - as the pollsters hours needed to be adjusted.
On this example alone (dangerous, caution now) how will polling the populace work in "hot spots" like Mindinao and Nuristan?
I have some recollection that in Iraq some polling was done.
davidbfpo
Depends on the situation, as do so many things...
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Originally Posted by
omarali50
I think the situation with Taqiya does not apply to polling. Taqqiya as a conscious act is most likely when a particular individual is hiding his real views because of the danger HE or she may face OR when a committed ideologue knows what the party line is and acts to further those aims.
And when the respondent has a sense of humor and like to confuse and befuddle. :wry:
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I cannot think of any examples where a large population would change answers to suit ideological imperatives...not if questions are prepared a little carefully.
The last item is often a problem; they frequently are not. Plus, it's not the ideology nearly so much as it is politeness (what the questioner wants to hear) and the pragmatic, personal -- can I benefit from this? The pragmatic aspect which applies to people all over the world, not just the ME and Muslims. Though, as I said, when haggling is a national sport (that's a compliment, not a knock), the folks in the ME and Asia have an edge on any westerner.
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Basically, what I am saying is that large populations are not thinking that deeply about the poll you are doing...
That's universally true; my point was that the very important aspect of politeness (NOT a western attribute) and pragmatism (universal but well honed in societies which practice bargaining) can skew results. Taqqiya may or may not apply -- depends on the reason for and wording of the survey. I agree that generally it will not -- though in questions of governance and relations with the west it may.
Dayuhan said it better than I...