I wouldn't bet the farm on that Iranian influence, he's
using them -- and they him -- but very few things in the ME are as they seem.
Most Iraqis are pretty xenophobic (as are the Iraniha), the schism between Persians and Arabs is deep and I suspect that if he hews too much to the Irani, his Mahdi Army will dump him -- and he knows it. He can use but not cleave to...
seems like a no win for him
Quote:
I don't trust al Sadr enough to believe anything he says. He has an ulterior motive.
I don't disagree with that assessment, but it seems to me that this is a no win situation for him.
If violence does stop immediatelly due to this then there is absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that the MM was behind a majority of the recent violence, not that there was a lot of boubt about that in the first place.
If it continues then it will be percieved that he has lost control of the group.
I think I will be more worried if this does reduce violence.
Even more so if due to the reduced violence, in conjunction with the withdrawal of British forces in the South, the US doesn't apply enough forces there.
Don't Bogart Those Nukes My Friend
Iran sees its coming influence and slice of the oil pie in Iraq after America cuts and runs
We will exit and Iran will step down from its nukes, that's the deal
to politically justify the exit, there has to be fewer attacks on our troops
this can only be accomplished by Sadr reining in the elements he controls
his orders for a cease fire have come from Tehran
he can now use American forces to purge his own ranks that have fractured and who are refusing to obey him, plus he will provide Intel on AQ
he will fully consolodate his power and be a minor Iranian Caliph in Iraq, though his luxary will never equal or come close to Saddam's
We never killed him because we knew Iran could and would at any moment if necessary
There is a real puppet master in Iran the likes the world hasn't seen in a couple of decades and it ain't Iran's President. Sadly his power has come from the clear dissent amongst State, DOD, CIA and the Presidency. Not one freakin' time were 3 out of the 4 on the same page in this war, the prerequisite for strategic implementation. As Bogart would say, " play it again, Uncle Sam"
Relations Sour Between Shiites and Iraq Militia
12 October New York Times - Relations Sour Between Shiites and Iraq Militia by Sabrina Tavernese.
Quote:
In a number of Shiite neighborhoods across Baghdad, residents are beginning to turn away from the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia they once saw as their only protector against Sunni militants. Now they resent it as a band of street thugs without ideology.
The hardening Shiite feeling in Baghdad opens an opportunity for the American military, which has long struggled against the Mahdi Army, as American commanders rely increasingly on tribes and local leaders in their prosecution of the war.
The sectarian landscape has shifted, with Sunni extremists largely defeated in many Shiite neighborhoods, and the war in those places has sunk into a criminality that is often blind to sect...
Shiites grow disillusioned with militia in Baghdad
Is this as big a thing as I think it is, (a Shiite awakening?) or am I making too much of it?
Quote:
In a number of Shiite neighborhoods across Baghdad, residents are beginning to turn away from the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia they once saw as their only protector against Sunni militants. Now they resent it as a band of street thugs without ideology.
The hardening Shiite feeling in Baghdad opens an opportunity for the American military, which has long struggled against the Mahdi Army, as American commanders rely increasingly on tribes and local leaders in their prosecution of the war.
The sectarian landscape has shifted, with Sunni extremists largely defeated in many Shiite neighborhoods, and the war in those places has sunk into a criminality that is often blind to sect.
....
Among the people killed in the neighborhood of Topchi over the past two months, residents said, were the owner of an electrical shop, a sweets seller, a rich man, three women, two local council members, and two children, ages 9 and 11.
It was a disparate group with one thing in common: All were Shiites killed by Shiites. Residents blamed the Mahdi Army, which controls the neighborhood.
"Everyone knew who the killers were," said a mother from Topchi, whose neighbor, a Shiite woman, was one of the victims. "I'm Shiite, and I pray to God that he will punish them."
The feeling was the same in other neighborhoods.
"We thought they were soldiers defending the Shiites," said Sayeed Sabah, a Shiite who runs a charity in the western neighborhood of Huriya. "But now we see they are youngster-killers, no more than that. People want to get rid of them."
While the Mahdi militia still controls most Shiite neighborhoods, early evidence that Shiites are starting to oppose some parts of the militia is surfacing on American bases. Shiite sheiks, the militia's traditional base, are beginning to contact Americans, much as Sunni tribes reached out early this year, refocusing one entire front of the war, officials said, and the number of accurate tips flowing into American bases has soared.
Shiites are "participating like they never have before," said Major Mark Brady, of the Multi-National Division-Baghdad Reconciliation and Engagement Cell, which works with tribes.
LINK
Muqtada is trying to take the Sadr movement to the next level
I think that what's going on right now is a practical response from Muqtada. Over the last 4 years if Muqtada has demonstrated anything it's that he is practical and flexible enough in basic ideology to cooperate or fight against just about any group if it suits the purposes of the Sadr movement.
This aspect is what I think doesn' get enough attention. Muqtada is more than a common street thug and there are some pretty good reasons why he has and will continue to have support from Iraqi's.
1. His personal lineage
2. The fact that the Sadr movement represents one of the only ones that is distinctely Arab, Iraqi, and Shia.
3. The focus on providing support and services to the Shia urban poor.
4. The perception that Sadr leaders have always stood, fought(physically or ideologically), and represented their constituency in the face of oppression while others have fled to exile.
What's holding Muqtada up is his ability to appeal to the merchant and elites of Iraq. These groups have been allying more with groups like SCIRI and follow leaders such as Sistani and Hakim. However, both of these are regarded as Iranian in origin and influence. If Muqtada is to take the Sadr movement to the next level he has to bridge the gap between appealing to the urban poor and also appealing to the elites.
He can only accomplish this if he can attain designation as an "object of emulation" within Shia Islam. What's going on right now is more about Muqtada getting his ideological house in order to have the greatest appeal to all Iraqi constituencies. He has a built in base of support, due to the group he leads, however he has repeatedly hit a wall by either overplaying his military capability or reaching the limits of his base of appeal. If he is to move to the next level he must have credentials on par with his uncle and father who preceded him.