Arab Spring vs. The Revolutions of 1848
Interesting analysis of two parallel examples of multiple revolutions - The Arab Spring and The Revolutions of 1848:
Quote:
Though inspired very generally by the ideas of liberal nationalism and democracy, the mostly middle-class demonstrators of 1848 had, like their Arab contemporaries, very different goals in different countries. In Hungary, they demanded independence from Habsburg Austria. In what is now Germany, they aimed to unify the German-speaking peoples into a single state. In France, they wanted to overthrow the monarchy (again). In some countries, revolution led to pitched battles between different ethnic groups. Others were brought to a halt by outside intervention
http://www.slate.com/id/2285696/
It is worth noting that the instability that was "initiated" with the revolutions of 1848 did not stabilze until nearly 100 years and two world wars latter.
Why shoul the two go hand in hand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheCurmudgeon
It is worth noting that the instability that was "initiated" with the revolutions of 1848 did not stabilze until nearly 100 years and two world wars latter.
Revolutions revolve around mobilization power. Governement is about organizational skills. Why should the two go hand in hand?
Revolutions aim at de-stabilizing the existing order. Stabilizing requires an alternative that is acceptible to a large majority of the population. Why should the two go hand in hand?
Rule of thumb: the more unpopular a regime, the easier to de-stabilize it by mobilizing against it; BUT, the more difficult to find a broadly acceptible alternative.
sorry to come late in the debate.
I would just make a very culturally French centric comment:
1848 revolutions are the off shoot of 1789 revolution and Napoleonian wars. Napoleon did spread 2 things all over Europ: Republic (the end of absolute Monrachy) and Nation.
To come back to Slate article, Germany was aiming to build a Nation. And did through Bismark not too long later.
France was aiming to establish a Republic against the will of neigbouring Kings and Queens of the time. Took longer cause we had a second empire in the middle of the process but reached the objective almost at the same time than Germany. (Unexpected, un forseen consequence of Bismark Germany unification?)
I am not sure than out of the domino effect their are so many parralleles between 1848 and the actual Arab Spring.
But I might be wrong.
Wrong Views on the Collapse of the USSR
I recommend picking up the latest Foreign Policy magazine (JUL/AUG), on the cover "Everything You Think You Know About the Collapse of the Soviet Union is Wrong and Why it Matters in Today's Revolutionary Times."
Articles are thought provoking, and there is another series of articles that challenge the overly simplistic view that failed States are a threat to our national interests, which is well worth the read.
I suspect most serious readers of SWJ read the letters sections, but definitely read the letters to the Editor in this issue. The previous issue of Foreign Policy had authors who argued that the Arab Spring Revolt was over food (which may have been a contributing factor, but I think a minor one), but numerous experts responded challenging those arguments. It was more about individual dignity and pride, and a large number of college graduates that had no means to get ahead due to government policies, etc.
I clearly see a trend in U.S. thought if we just focus on the economy these underlying issues will fix themselves, which is why we, foolheartedly in my opinion, put so much effort into development when addressing security issues. Development plays a role at the right time, but can be very dangerous if used (even unintentionally) to further strengthen the powers that are causing the dissent to begin with.
1848 spread faster than the Arab Spring
Recently had an opportunity to listen to Scott Atran speak and amidst the content was this observation, which I don't recall being made before:
Quote:
The ‘Arab Spring’ we were told was spread rapidly across the Middle East and North Africa by social media. In fact the 1848 Revolutions in Europe were faster to spread, starting in Sicily and two months later had moved across Europe.