Crunch Time in Afghanistan-Pakistan

Crunch Time in Afghanistan-Pakistan

by Dave Kilcullen, Small Wars Journal

(This is an edited version of my statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Afghanistan, chaired by Senator John F. Kerry, on 5th February 2009).

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Senator Joseph Lieberman made a timely and well-argued call, during his recent speech at the Brookings Institution, for a comprehensive political-military campaign in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) region. Seven years into a long war, we need to be honest with ourselves about the harsh strategic choices we face. And we need to recognize that before we can expect long-term strategic progress, we first have to deal with an immediate, acute crisis that could derail the entire effort this year. Let me first discuss long-term strategic choices, then turn to the immediate crisis, and conclude with some remarks on Pakistan...

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Afghanistan Weather Forecast from Yahoo

From the IHT: Obama orders Afghan-Pakistan policy review

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President Barack Obama has ordered an interagency review to examine U.S. policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan before a NATO summit in April, the White House said on Tuesday.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington would head the review.

Riedel would look at both military and non-military aspects of U.S. policy in the region and would report directly to Obama and his national security adviser, Jim Jones, Gibbs told reporters aboard a flight to Florida with Obama.

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Bruce Riedel from wikipedia

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Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow in foreign policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, a former CIA Analyst, a counter-terrorism expert, and an author. He retired in 2006 after 29 years with the Central Intelligence Agency. Riedel served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Near East Affairs on the National Security Council (1997-2002), Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Near East and South Asian Affairs (1995-97), and National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asian Affairs at the National Intelligence Council (1993-95). His areas of expertise include counter-terrorism, Arab-Israeli issues, Persian Gulf security and India and Pakistan.

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GEN Jones from wikipedia

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James Logan Jones Jr. (born 19 December 1943) is the current United States National Security Advisor and a retired United States Marine Corps four-star general.

During his military career, he served as Commander, United States European Command (COMUSEUCOM) and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) from 2003 to 2006 and as the 32nd Commandant of the Marine Corps from July 1999 to January 2003. Jones retired from the Marine Corps on February 1, 2007, after 40 years of service.

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From the 2/9/09 online edition of Der Speigel (in english) By Claus Christian Malzahn Obama Means Blood, Sweat and Tears for Germany

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German enthusiasm for the new US administration could soon fade. The Americans made it very clear at the Munich Security Conference that they expect solidarity from their European allies -- and that means blood, sweat and tears.

This year, it's going to be hard to escape the slew of German anniversaries. The list includes the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest 2,000 years ago, the invasion of Poland and the outbreak of World War II 70 years ago, the founding of East and West Germany 60 years ago and the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago. In 2009, hardly any other country in the world will spend so much time intensively examining its own past as Germany.

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Attackers on the Afghani Ministry of Justice used a coordinated effort, reminiscent of Mumbai, to maximize carnage.

Phillips

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Wall Street Journal
FEBRUARY 11, 2009, 9:06 A.M. ET
Attack in Kabul Leaves at Least 26 Dead By MATTHEW ROSENBERG
Gunmen wearing suicide vests stormed Afghanistan's Justice Ministry and burst into another building Wednesday, setting off explosions and sowing chaos in the heavily guarded center of Kabul.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123433268773572019.html

With our modern age of gadgetry, where is or was the scanner sniffer devices to have anticipated those wearing suicide vests before they could get into the buildings just bombed in Kabul?

Absent such technology, where were or are the sniffer dogs to do lines of thepublic in and out of any/all public buildings in Kabul, be they government, hotel, whatever style or type of public buildings?

If you think these suggested anti-suicide bomber ideas are extreme, it is more extreme to do nothing as we are doing for all practical purposes.

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Originally Posted by George L. Singleton

With our modern age of gadgetry, where is or was the scanner sniffer devices to have anticipated those wearing suicide vests before they could get into the buildings just bombed in Kabul?

Absent such technology, where were or are the sniffer dogs to do lines of thepublic in and out of any/all public buildings in Kabul, be they government, hotel, whatever style or type of public buildings?

If you think these suggested anti-suicide bomber ideas are extreme, it is more extreme to do nothing as we are doing for all practical purposes.

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Its not that easy, George. First, the attackers frequently attack and overwhelm the door/gate defenses and then proceed into the building—they don't rely on covert admission. This appears to be the case with the Justice Ministry attack:

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"Security guards started shooting and then the attackers responded by killing other security guards. One got inside the building and started shooting, one guy got upstairs," he said. (BBC)

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Second, its not clear that the Afghans would effectively use nitrogen sniffers, especially over an extended period of time. In the case of dogs—which as I'm sure you know are regarded as unclean animals in Islam—the PR costs would likely exceed the security gains (especially since one can achieve much of the same coverage with good physical searches).

More, better trained guards, more careful control (and fortification) of access points (preferably at a perimeter some distance from the main buildings) and thorough searches would all be far more effective than technological solutions, and more sustainable in the Afghan context. Disrupting and unravelling Kabul-based Taliban cells is even more important.

Third, even with all of this there will still be soft targets. (The fact that 8 heavily-armed attackers with complete tactical surprise only managed to kill 19 victims suggests that they were either not all that well prepared, or that the targets were harder than expected.)

The broader point, which Abu Muqawama correctly flagged this morning, is the signal that it all sends: we Taliban can operate anywhere, nowhere is safe, the regime is a impotent house-of-cards waiting to fall. To apply McLuhan to an insurgency/COIN setting: the (armed) medium is the (political) message here—and its a powerful one.

Rex (Professor):

Thanks for your views.

Dogs have been very effective inside Iraq, which last time I looked is a heavily Muslim nation.

But then Afghanistan is more Islamic in terms of uneducated, backwardness so maybe you are right there.

Last time I was in Kabul, 1965, a mere 44 years ago, the King had a nice brace of dogs he used to race and hunt with.

Friends younger than me who are currently stationed both as military and in contractor civilian status around Afghanistan, to include in Kabul, as often as not are background to some of my otherwise out of date ideas.

Many of your comments make good sense if you could know for sure that these fellow Pukhtuns, both our side and Taliban are largely Pukhtuns when it comes to ethnicity of the majority of Afgan citizens make up, are not either kin, childhood friends, or using kidnapped family members of Afghan military and police to force their way through, psychologically, to intended targets.

I have to agree that it "ain't" easy but we are there to do a job and scientific ways and means even with stone age thinkers involved can and often do provide better ways and means...but you know our ground pounders believe that our man, with his boot on the enemy's chest, and his bayonet in his body, works best.

Being Air Force, I prefer unmanned drones myself.

SIDENOTE: Our US Congressman locally has as a new home town office Staff Assistant a young, recent [23 years old or so] recent Political Science graduate of your McGill University. Small world. Did you know my late friend (much older than me, he was my first cousin's father-in-law) who died a couple years ago, Brigadier General (Ret.) Denny Whitaker, of WW II Dieppe failed raid in early 1940s fame? Whitaker became a pretty good WW II authorative military book author [see obit at below Internet citation.]

http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jun/12/local/me-9492

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Originally Posted by Harry Phillips

Attackers on the Afghani Ministry of Justice used a coordinated effort, reminiscent of Mumbai, to maximize carnage.

Phillips

************************************************** *******************

Wall Street Journal
FEBRUARY 11, 2009, 9:06 A.M. ET
Attack in Kabul Leaves at Least 26 Dead By MATTHEW ROSENBERG
Gunmen wearing suicide vests stormed Afghanistan's Justice Ministry and burst into another building Wednesday, setting off explosions and sowing chaos in the heavily guarded center of Kabul.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123433268773572019.html

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I'll tell you, things got right sporty around here; I was out doing range qualification, and for a bit we thought we'd get to do some fully reactive live fire gunnery.

There were some IEDs around the city as well.

A curious commentary on Richard Holbrooke's mission to Pakistan, entitled 'Pakistan wants more from US: Obama Calls Zardari' appears on: http://watandost.blogspot.com/ and I draw attention to two snippets:

1) replacing the former head of Pakistan’s intelligence service, who was widely mistrusted by the CIA; appointing a new chief for the Frontier Corps; and doubling Frontier Corps salaries.

2) Pakistan would also like at least to “be in the room” when targeting decisions for CIA aerial drone attacks in the FATA are made.

I wonder if the US Congress is aware it maybe funding the FC salaries? Given their previous, recent history of reluctance to engage extremists and the mooted training mission.

davidbfpo

I think this is called "a cat out of the bag" and by Dianne Feinstein, a Congressional Democratic leader too: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...tory?track=rss

Elsewhere the leader via others claims "not a secret. open sources": http://counterterrorismblog.org/

Now will the Pakistani press pick this up, let alone our enemies? What is more important IMHO is how the Pakistani military react.

davidbfpo

"Second, its not clear that the Afghans would effectively use nitrogen sniffers, especially over an extended period of time. In the case of dogs—which as I'm sure you know are regarded as unclean animals in Islam—the PR costs would likely exceed the security gains (especially since one can achieve much of the same coverage with good physical searches)."
One snippet of ancient dogdom history from the Afghan hound line. Today's Afghans are in fact dog lovers, as are many other Muslims the world over. Likewise all over the NWFP, SWAT, Balochistan, FATA, dogs are used to hunt and guard families all over this part of the Muslim world.

Bacon, ham, etc. are unclean foods to both Orthodox Jews and to Muslims. So what?

Dogs are an integral part of daily lives the world over, bar none.

Bruce Riedel entered US government service for ninety days, to help President Obama, by providing a report on the region, leaving in April 2009 and has recently spoken at a Canadian think tank conference: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/cepi-cips/eng/ Check under News for an audio recording. (H/tip to e-list on Canadian think tanks).

Still listening and very pithy remarks, e.g. 'I will not use Afpak'.

davidbfpo

The Indian viewpoint does crop up occassionally here and this comment provides a worrying perspective:http://defenceoftherealm.blogspot.co...ttlefield.html Plus a review of which internal militant groups pose a threat to Pakistan.

davidbfpo

Thanks to MPayson for pointing to these:

a) This is the full text of an address given last Thursday by Paul McGeough, the chief correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald, at a conference on the Afghanistan crisis which was organised by the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/soc...1023-hd58.html

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In their rush to congratulate President Hamid Karzai on buckling to a second Afghan presidential election this week, world leaders heaved a sigh of relief. But none bothered – at least, not in public – to canvas the part played by the international community in bringing Afghanistan to the brink.

That is what makes the 60-page assessment of the conflict by US General Stanley McChrystal a damning document, more because of who he is than what he actually has to say.

The handling of the crisis by the US-led coalition has its many critics. But seeing so many of its shortcomings articulated with all the authority of a top American general makes startling reading.

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b) Let slip the dogs of war, PaulMcGeough, writes on the Soviet and current campaigning at Satukandav Pass, Paktia Province: http://www.smh.com.au/world/let-slip...0925-g6bi.html (This item will be copied to the 'Soviet General comments' thread).

davidbfpo