The ever murkier future of Afghan SOF
Moderator's Note
I have relocated this thread to the OEF-Afghan forum (On 8th March 2013;ends).
A neat article on an issue some may prefer not being in the open; which opens with:
Quote:
One of the outcomes of the current US-Afghan summit in Washington reported by Afghan media is the apparent emergence of a new Afghan special operations force, the “Foundation Force for Afghanistan”. Still there is no official confirmation of this. Our guest blogger Gary Owen(*) writes, however, that this would be very much in line with the US emphasis on Afghan SOF training and partnership and, when involving private military contractors, would enable the US to maintain direct influence over Afghan SOF while still withdrawing troops.
Link:http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=3199
I noted the re-appearance of Blackwater PMC, now known as Academi.
A longer backgrounder, by the same author:http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=3069
SOFA? No, we'll go PMC thanks
MSG Proctor,
I have moved an earlier post on the thread 'Afghan Exit:why, how and more in country and beyond' which hopefully gives some context to your quest about a SOFA.
It does appear from the earlier post something is being done to enable a PMC with Afghan SOF to "stay behind" and so give both Kabul and the USA a capability to act in CT, not COIN action.
Is the future foretold by the past? In Afghanistan yes!
MSG Proctor,
By coincidence, timely maybe, the daily book reading on BBC Radio Four is from the new book on the First Anglo-Afghan War (1839-1842), which ended with an appalling disaster in the retreat from Kabul. My book is the old classic 'Kabul Catastrophe: The Retreat of 1842, by Patrick Macrory (paperback 1986).
Concern exists here, within government, over as you wrote:
Quote:
We are running out of geopolitical capital to squander on hasty exits.
The history of Afghanistan and external involvement has plenty of lessons on display, I do wonder if those immersed in Afghanistan today have learnt much from them - even the latest Soviet exit.
Understandably there is political and military weight behind an orderly, phased exit; far better than a hasty exit, but there are other possibilities. The Second Afghan War (1878-1880) gave the British more bloody lessons (incidentally a historian of that war is giving a talk @ Oxford University next month, on how the British conducted their exit).
A US SOFA sounds horribly like "saving face" alongside maintaining a capability for coercive action - for national US reasons - within Afghanistan, maybe next door too.
You being in Kandahar is appropriate, stay safe.
Learning a Soviet lesson?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Madhu
David,
In your reading did you come across anything on the relationship between numbers of troops post 2014 and planned elections? What can be the status of any agreement in that background?
Thanks to a FP mailing I can cite what COMISAF said in an interview with WSJ (behind a pay wall):
Quote:
...Gen. John Allen is calling for a "substantial military presence" in Afghanistan through next year's fighting season.... "We'd like to maintain our campaign so we're as pervasive in our touch this fighting season, because this fighting season Afghans are going to be moving into the lead operationally... We'd like to be with them through the fighting season and then you'd see our numbers come down and then stabilize across the election."
There are about 66,000 American troops in Afghanistan now, and the White House has not announced a withdrawal "slope" yet. But the command is expected to want as much of that force as possible for the last leg of the war in Afghanistan.
Allen is arguing for as robust a presence as possible, citing the lessons learned from the Soviets years ago. Allen: "What we've sought to do is learn from the post-Soviet experience.... It was as the Soviet Union began to come apart, when the advisers first were withdrawn and...when the resources were ultimately withdrawn, that's when we first began to see that [Afghan security] force polarize along ethnic and tribal lines and then everything began to come apart."
Fascinating to see him cite the lessons of the Soviet exit (which is a later part of a SWC thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9483 ).
A bed of nails doesn't make an easy sofa
Not sure whether this decision by GIRoA is unprecedented, but it does indicate achieving a SOFA maybe difficult:
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The Afghan president has ordered US special forces to leave Wardak province within two weeks. The decision was being taken due to allegations of disappearances and torture by Afghans considered to be part of US special forces, said a spokesman for Hamid Karzai.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21566295 and a longer NYT article:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/25/wo...pagewanted=all
Pat Lang (Sic Semper Tyrannis blog)....
....doesn't think there will be a SOFA.
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Some naif here in the US probably still believes that Karzai's government will give the US legal immunity. Wanna bet?
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_s...65802html.html
It's hard to get a decent sofa these days
Quote:
If you can’t beat them, cheat them. And that is what the Taliban is currently doing to make sure special operations forces aren’t impeding their significantly important operations in Wardak. With the majority of NATO forces on the verge of being pulled out of Afghanistan, the only obstacle remaining will be special operations forces that are poised to remain in the country even after most U.S. forces return home.
This is the conclusion reached by:http://sofrep.com/17610/sof-running-amok-in-wardak/
That sofa is getting very uncomfortable, maybe even unlikely.
Wardak Province update: ah, who was OTT?
The LAT, with reporting in Washington and Wardak:
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The story was gruesome: A university student, captured in a U.S. special forces raid, was found decapitated and with his fingers sliced off. Amid a groundswell of public anger, Afghan President Hamid Karzai's office cited that incident, as well as reports that nine villagers had been abducted from their homes, when he decided last week to bar the elite U.S. troops from a volatile province at the doorstep of Kabul, a move that could one day put the capital at risk. But the account of the young man's death was wrong, U.S. and local Afghan officials say. He was snared by armed men, not U.S. forces or their Afghan allies, according to Afghan law enforcement officials. In police photos of the body, he has one finger chopped off and a gash on one side of his neck, but he wasn't beheaded.
Link:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,5647636.story
Qata, Syria, Taliban and SOFAS?
Quote:
“The communication gap between Quetta and Qatar has been removed,” says a former senior Taliban minister. “Now the Taliban can confidently set up an office and keep in touch with and receive instructions from the shura.” Pakistan, which at first was lukewarm about the Taliban’s Qatar office and the peace talks there, is now cautiously supportive and is issuing visas and travel documents to the Taliban officials visiting Qatar."
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...acemakers.html
Quote:
On Wednesday John Kerry will cross the finish line of his first listening tour as Secretary of State. His last stop is Doha, Qatar, a small gulf state with a big problem.
In international politics Qatar is playing a leading role in regional peace and stability. From brokering peace talks for warring Sudanese factions, bailing out Egypt with loans and attempting to mediate the Syrian conflict, this is a nation with grand ambitions.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharan...b_2805896.html
I believe there are several other monetary and balance of payment crises in the various regions of interest.