I think your position applies to the west
in general, the US is just a little larger. Penalty of a 'post-industrial' society the Academics keep telling us is the way to go... :mad:
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Originally Posted by
Fuchs
...Services are almost irrelevant as base for military power. You can't get a rifle from an UPS driver, you cannot sell his services to other nations in exchange for their rifle - but an industry worker can make a rifle for you.
Well, you can in the US -- most of them have a couple of rifles at home...;)
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The U.S. economy is like a canoe with two rowers and eight steersmen...
There's more truth in that statement than you realize. I agree with it as you meant it but it's also true in the sense that there are too many steersmen trying to make decisions -- ending up with no one in charge all too often... :D
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The shipbuilding graphic (more modern data is even more extreme; (it) is relevant because mankind has never experienced that a naval power kept its superiority on the seas in face of a challenger who had a greater shipbuilding capacity. Much less a shipbuilding capacity that's stronger by more than an order of magnitude.
Mankind has never experienced many things that are now occurring. The world is in the early throes of major change; too early to tell how it will fall out. A lot of historical paradigms are going to be laid to rest -- many won't, it's true but we don't know yet which will and which will not...
Thus, your comments are all correct -- but I'm not sure they prove what you think they prove.
I think there's a context issue.
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Originally Posted by
Fuchs
...And Ken; wasn't it you who - just a couple of days ago - wrote in the context of technological changes that you don't trust "everything changes" attitudes?
Minor changes in technology do not necessarily change operational techniques and practices; sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. IIRC, that discussion was on the increased lethality of munitions -- a change that I believe has had only a minor effect on warfare.
Changes in the human condition, OTOH, will wreak even more technological change which may obviate current changes -- and techniques.
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Actually, I think they prove that we (in the West) should stop considering our nations as being what they once were. Too many people don't understand that we are in decline in several aspects even though we are in rise in others. Instead, many people seem to believe that the 'power' ratios in the Western world are just like the were decades ago (plus China's industrial rise).
I agree that too many do so. I do not however believe most do so.
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How many people would believe that the South Korean shipbuilding industry has many dozen times the capacity of the U.S. one, or that Poland's and Croatia's shipbuilding industries are larger as well? It's likely easier to find people who still consider the extreme U.S. shipbuilding effort of WW2 as an indicator of national power.
Why would they not believe it, it's true -- the US Shipbuilding industry is very much aware of it. Part of this discussion lies in the realm of the never ending quality versus quantity argument which there's little sense in going into that here. On the WW II shipbuilding effort, the real issue is the pre war level versus the 1944 level; most of that effort was built from scratch. Could it be again? Probably. Will it need to be? Not soon.
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Most Western nations/economies would have trouble to mobilize and equip as many soldiers as they did in WW2. The million men armies would have almost no uniforms. Most of the textile industry is gone, after all!
On the other hand: Even the present, relatively weak steel industries are still much more capable than they were in WW2 (and the steel is better).
Somehow, I have this idea that a lack of textiles will not be a major problem in future war... :D