Don't Send a Lion to Catch a Mouse
5 March Washington Post - Don't Send a Lion to Catch a Mouse by Shankar Vedantam.
Quote:
...Two political scientists recently examined 250 asymmetrical conflicts, starting with the Peninsular War. Although great powers are vastly more powerful today than in the 19th century, the analysis showed they have become far less likely to win asymmetrical wars. More surprising, the analysis showed that the odds of a powerful nation winning an asymmetrical war decrease as that nation becomes more powerful.
The analysis by Jason Lyall at Princeton University and Lt. Col. Isaiah Wilson III at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point shows that the likelihood of a great power winning an asymmetrical war went from 85 percent during 1800-1850 to 21 percent during 1950-2003.
The same trend was evident when the researchers studied only asymmetrical conflicts involving the United States. The more industrialized a powerful country becomes, the more its military becomes technologically powerful, the less effective it seems to be in an asymmetrical war.
Essentially, what Lyall and Wilson are saying is that if you want to catch a mouse, you need a cat. If you hire a lion to do the job because it is bigger and stronger, the very strength and size of the lion can get in the way of getting the job done...
More at the link.
Difference of sensibilities
Just to add a period note to reinforce the changing times-changing means, here is a note from the Boxer Rebellion, in other words why what worked in the past doesn't always translate too well today:
Tientsin: Allied Proclamation to the Inhabitants
To the Inhabitants of the City of Tientsin:
In bombarding the city of Tientsin the allied forces only replied to the attack made by the rebels on the foreign settlements.
At present, as your authorities, forgetting their duties, have deserted their posts, the allied forces consider it their duty to establish in the city a temporary administration, which you all have to obey. This administration will protect everyone wishing to deal in a friendly manner with foreigners, but will punish without mercy everyone who causes trouble.
Let the bad people tremble, but the good people should feel reassured and quietly return to their houses and begin their usual work. Thus peace will be restored.
Respect this.
Tientsin, the 16th July, 1900.
Approved by:
Allemagne: Von Usedom, Capitaine de Navire.
Autriche Hongrie: J. Tudrak, Lieutenant de Vaisseau.
États Unis d'Amérique: Colonel Meade, American Marines.
France: De Pelacol, Colonel.
Grande-Bretagne: Le Général Dorward, Captain Bayly.
Italie: G. Sirianni, Lieutenant de Vaisseau.
Japon: Le Général Fukushima.
Russie: Vice-Amiral Alexieff.
250 cases - what are they?
Interesting article in the Post and thanks to Jed for the full draft article. I scanned the article for a list of the cases - haven't had time to read the whole thing yet - but could not find a list. That,alone, gives mepause.When Max Manwaring and I wrote our origninal piece in Small Wars and Insurgencies, wepublished the entire list of 43 cases. So, I wonder what the cases are. For example, do the authors address every single Indian War in the US beginning with 1800? I should note that the outcome, despite some significant setbacks for the US Army such as the Little Bighorn, was victory in every case! In all the post-WWII insurgencies in Latin America, there have only been 2 victories for the insurgents - Castro in Cuba and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua (1979). So, the definition of victory and defeat is of importance as well. The track record of insurgents is simply not very good. So, at a minimum, caution is indicated when we read the paper in its entirety.
Congo/Zaire Wars and Angola
John
I would add the following to the list:
Congo 1960-1963: Belgium, US, UN: Government and UN "win"
Subset Katangan Secession: Belgium versus Congo, US, and UN: Congo win
Congo 1963-1965 US, Belgium, Congo versus Simbas with some later PRC assistance: Congo win
Angola 1975-1977(?) US, Holden Roberto (FNLA), Zaire versus MPLA, Cuba, USSR: MPLA "win"
Zaire 1977-1978 (Shaba 1 and 2) France, Belgium, US, Morocco, Zaire versus East Germany, Angola; Zaire win
That would make the total 47 with 15 cases where the Western power lost.
Best
Tom
Classic support for partisans
The Peninsula campaign is a classic example of Great Power support to partisans in a secodary theater of war. In this respect, it is not dissimilar to the anti-Japanese guerrillas in the Philippines supported by the US.Another example is the partisans in Yugoslavia supported by the UK, US, and USSR or the maquis in France before D-Day. In any event, if Great Powers are involved on opposite sides, the case is much more complex than a simple insurgency with carefully limited support from one Great Power or another. It is for this reason that I noted that someone else might break out the winners and losers among the Western Power supporters/participants differently than I did among out 43 cases.