COIN in a non-state environment
COIN seems to be predicated on the idea that there is a functioning (albeit not necessarily legitimate) government in place. That the insurgency is fighting to replace that government. What happens when there is not a government?
The obvious example is Afghanistan, where Karzai is often referred to as nothing more than the "mayor of Kabul". If there is no real state, do the doctrines underlying COIN really apply?
Can't always get what you want ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
M-A Lagrange
If you want to impose a webberian modern state on them, I am not that sure that you need COIN in the first place. At least not pop centric COIN.
You need to establish the military suprematy of the government you do support first. That needs to be violent and unflexible.
Then, in the area where you have control on you can think about pop centric COIN as a magnet to rally populations to your side. But they will rally just because your the strongest, mightest and they fear you, not for any other reasons. The social services and formal state administration will just a cherry on the top of the cake.
I was thinking the same thing, but this was tried by the Soviets. Maybe their failure was their attempt to use a Marxist version of COIN, trying to convince the locals that they were the abused proletariat.
I would have to agree that the average rural Afghan will side with whomever can provide long term security as long as they do not try to change the social structure. Not sure how violent and inflexible you can be, not because they will not accept your rule but because we don't have the support for those type of tactics. However, in principle I think that is a strategy that would work.