Iran, Nukes and Diplomacy 2011-2014
Note this new thread is for discussions in 2011. Iran and nuclear weapons has come to the fore again. I have started this 2011 thread and moved a small number of posts added in 2011, in a moment the previous thread will be closed and locked.
Original Post
An IISS Strategic Comment on the impact on Iran's civil nuclear programme, which I knew existed, but not in any detail and worth reading:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...clear-rethink/
Meir Dagan on possibility of Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities
Former Mossad chief: Israel air strike on Iran 'stupidest thing I have ever heard'
In first public appearance since leaving post as Mossad chief, Meir Dagan warns of regional war if Iran is attacked; says fall of Assad regime would benefit Israel.
By Yossi Melman
Haaretz, Published 18:52 07.05.11
Quote:
Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan referred to the possibility a future Israeli Air Force attack on Iranian nuclear facilities as "the stupidest thing I have ever heard" during a conference held at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem on Friday.
Dagan's presentation during a senior faculty conference was his first public appearance since leaving his former role as chief of the Mossad at the end of September 2010.
Dagan said that Iran has a clandestine nuclear infrastructure which functions alongside its legitimate, civil infrastructure. It is the legitimate infrastructure, he said, that is under international supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Any strike on this legitimate infrastructure would be "patently illegal under international law," according to Dagan.
Dagan emphasized that attacking Iran would be different than Israel's successful air strike on Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981. Iran has scattered its nuclear facilities in different places around the country, he said, which would make it difficult for Israel to launch an effective attack.
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The IAF's abilities are not in doubt, Dagan emphasized, but the doubts relate to the possibilities of completing the mission and reaching all targets.
When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."
Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options:catch all thread 2011
Iran and nuclear weapons has come to the fore again. I have started this 2011 thread and moved a small number of posts added in 2011, in a moment the previous thread will be closed and locked.
playing Persian Incursion, a board game of a hypothetical Israeli air campaign
Hat tip to FP Blog for a glimpse into the possibilities of an Iranian-Israeli conflict:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...sian_incursion
Quote:
Persian Incursion is basically two games in one. There is a highly detailed military game of a seven-day Israeli air offensive in which Israel plans and executes its strikes while the Iranian air defenses try to stop them. But there is also a political game that unlocks the military aspect...
...As U.S. history has demonstrated for the last 65 years, before you blunder into a war, it's best to figure out exactly how you're going to win. Although Persian Incursion is a war game, destroying or protecting Iran's nuclear sites is only a means to victory -- not victory itself. The real prize is political. If Israel or Iran can knock down the other's morale enough through military or political action, it wins. Part of the goal, then, is to score points on "political tracks," which measure public opinion and morale.
Nowhere does it say who sells the game, sorry Rex!
The first review of the game I found:http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/7...sian-incursion
Israel vs Iran: the regional blowback
Professor Paul Rogers has written a short article, which opens with:
Quote:
The prospect of an Israeli military assault on Iran's nuclear assets is growing. The scale and impact of any attack would be far greater than most observers expect.
Quote:
It is the link between the weapons research and two other factors that makes the case for revisiting Iran's nuclear ambitions....The first is the programme of uranium enrichment...The second factor is the Iranian construction programme, which includes several major underground facilities.
This part intrigued me, partly as I do not recall reading about this aspect:
Quote:
But Israel cannot guarantee effective results by operating from its own territory alone; it needs local allies. Here, Kurdish (northeast) Iraq and Azerbaijan are important. Israel has assiduously developed close relations with both. In the latter case, this has meant taking sides with a Muslim country locked in a frozen conflict with (Christian) Armenia - in turn supported by Iran - over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Kurdish Iraq and Azerbaijan would not necessarily offer Israel forward operating bases for strike aircraft; but their numerous support functions could include the insertion of special forces into Iran; search and rescue; overflying by tanker aircraft; and, above all, launch sites for some of Israel's many and potent armed drones.
In short, an Israeli operation against Iran will be comprehensive and will use regional facilities to inflict maximum damage on Iran's nuclear programme. But the moment it starts, the political dynamics change.
There's more on the link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...ional-blowback
Israel vs Iran wargame compendium
I've assembled a compendium of recent (2009-present) public-domain wargames on a possible Iranian strike against Iranian nuclear facilities here.
General Dempsey to CNN: Iran Shouldn't "Miscalculate Our Resolve"
General Dempsey to CNN: Iran Shouldn't "Miscalculate Our Resolve"
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
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