Pakistan and nuclear weapons (catch all)
Nah, I been to Orygun. More Rednecks in Portland than
there are in Jackson and Hattiesburg combined. Only differences are that out west they don't eat catfish, aren't as polite and they talk funny... :D
Opening the door on the nukes
Just found this on a BBC website and may be of interest, let alone the opening tale that pakistan's nukes have been dispersed: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/markurban/
davidbfpo
Pakistan's nuclear weapons
Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons is an important aspect of her relations with friends and neighbours. One that some suspect is a clear and future danger if Pakistan changes course. In fact I heard a retired US diplomat on the BBC a month ago remark "Why do we pay so much attention to Iran, when Pakistan has nukes".
So here is an article by a UK-based analyst 'Pakistan, NATO, and tactical nuclear weapons: two of a kind?', which was spotted today:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...two-of-a-kind/
In the opening:
Quote:
The rationale for Pakistan’s use of such weapons is familiar to most, and often invokes NATO’s nuclear doctrine. It is worth understanding how exactly NATO’s nuclear thinking applies to Pakistan, and what this implies for how its arsenal might develop and how India might respond to this.
Near the end:
Quote:
Whereas NATO was a multinational alliance with a variety of perspectives on where the nuclear threshold ought to lie, Pakistani decision-making – whatever its pathologies – is certainly simpler and more responsive. India cannot rely on Pakistani hesitation, even though it, India, would surely calibrate the level of force so as to make any Pakistani decision a difficult one.
If Pakistan does place increasing stress on limited nuclear options, and tactical nuclear weapons in particular, then understanding the differences from the NATO precedent – the ones discussed here, and plenty of others – will be as important as seeing the similarities.
The Post 9/11 Afghan Missile Crisis (That Wasn’t)
A counter-factual question raised by RUSI's Shashank Joshi, so hat tip to him. What if Pakistani nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001? Ridiculous idea, but he has found this unsupported WaPo report from November 2001:
Quote:
Pakistani fears of an Indian attack on its nuclear sites were so great in the summer of 1999, after Pakistani-supported guerrillas invaded Indian territory, that military officers here secretly contacted Taliban officials about the possibility of moving some nuclear assets westward to neighboring Afghanistan for safekeeping, according to a recently retired Pakistani general officer familiar with the talks.
”The option was actively discussed with the Taliban after some indications emerged that India may open hostilities at the eastern border,” the retired official said. ‘‘The Taliban accepted the requests with open arms.”
The former official said the talks were ”exploratory” and said that no nuclear-related assets were placed in Afghanistan. At the time, Pakistan’s military and intelligence services had close relations with the Taliban, providing training, weapons and other support.
Link to WaPo:http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.d...NEWS/311119943 and Shashank's blog:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...is-that-wasnt/
Speculate away! I've added this comment to the blog:
Quote:
What if the nuclear weapons had been present in Afghanistan in September 2001?
A lot depends on how many knew they were in country, whether in Kabul, Delhi, Islamabad, Tehran and Washington. More particularly how many knew exactly their location(s).
For a moment let us assume others only knew after 9/11. In the heated atmosphere, in the USA and beyond it is easy to speculate that the USA would have struck first if the targets had been identified. Even today a vague sign that AQ plus have a WMD intention sends the USA into hyper-drive, let alone has a capability.
Pakistan I expect would have swiftly withdrawn any such weapons and signalled that clearly to “interested parties”. Adding it had been a low-level decision and was a big mistake.
Hopefully those “far more in the know” can answer.
Something to NOT look forward to in 2014 plus
From War on The Rocks a glimpse into the future, which is rather bleak IMHO as the Shia-Sunni civil war escalates and the title says it all:
Quote:
Confronting Reality: The Saudi-Pakistani Nuclear Nexus
It ends with:
Quote:
If American efforts and promises fail, then Washington must accept that Islamabad will transfer some form of nuclear weapons capability to Saudi Arabia. Washington’s best policy option is be realistic rather than idealistic and maintain sufficient diplomatic and military relevance in Islamabad and Riyadh to limit the impact of this transfer on Israel’s threat calculus. America should prefer that any physical transfer of capability be limited to aircraft delivery systems and be in small numbers. These features would be the least threatening to Israel in both the short and long term, reinforcing a long-standing Pakistani nuclear weapons posture imperative.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2013/12/con...nuclear-nexus/
Pakistan collapses: how will others respond?
A 'What If' question. Instability in Pakistan has long been a "given" and every so often it appears to slide towards the precipice, then pulls away.
I do recall, now some years ago, speculation about the (in)security of the Pakistani nuclear weapons stockpile and what should happen if nation-state, notably the military, lost both the capability and will to keep them secure. That is one issue.
Pakistan is not just a nuclear-armed state. It has a complex relationship with its neighbours, notably with India and with China and the USA. Not to overlook Saudi Arabia, especially as former and present leaders like to have long stays there or in the Gulf states - as guests.
Personally I think if the nuclear weapons, foreign embassies and resident or visiting foreign nationals are safeguarded in an emergency no-one would want to be actively involved.
Backgrounder on Pkaistan and nuclear weapons
An interesting, short explanation how Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state.
Link:http://newsweekpakistan.com/how-and-why-it-began/
I have merged in a small thread 'Pakistan collapses: how will others respond?' as it sits well here.