1948 Palestine; 1960 Congo; 1963 Congo; 1967 Sinai, etc
One of the more interesting cases of timetables was when the British essentially threw the towel at the UN over the issue of Palestine. The British left, Israel raised its flag and the war was on.
1960 Congo is another when the Belgians caved into international pressure and reversed course to give the Congolese independence in a matter of weeks versus decades. Within days the new Congolese Army mutinied against retaining white (Belgian) officers, civil war erupted in the country, and Katanga seceeded.
1963 Congo--at the time the largest UN peacekeeping effort in history drew to a close as donors were tired. True to form as the last UN peacekeepers left, the Simba rebellion and related troubles erupted.
1967 Sinai--one of the dumbest requests ever made was by Egypt to the UN to remove UNEF 1 from the Sinai--this pretty much guaranteed the 1967 6 Day War
There are any number of related or simliar examples, especially those related to collapse of colonial empires. I mean look at the British and India and the creation of Pakistan and later Bangladesh. The French in Algeria versus the French turnovers in Tunisia and Morocco. The Belgian reversal in the Congo was of course paralled by another reversal in Rwanda to place the former elite Tutsis under the Hutu.
In some ways you can make the case that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the timetables set for withdrawals ofSoviet/Russian forces repeated the collapse of colonial imperialism of the 1950s/60s in the 1990s.
Tom
When there is a date certain for withdrawal...
In our original study published as "Insurgency and Counterinsurgency: Toward a New Analytical Approach" in Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol 3 No 2, Winter 1992, Max Manwaring and I looked at 43 cases of insurgency. Our model successfully explained/predicted the outcome in 38 cases. Three of the five cases where it predicted/explained incorrectly were close enough to 50/50 to be seen as toss ups. The other two cases were Cyprus, where British commander Lord Harding understood his unexpected victory in terms of his promise to the Queen not to lose Cyprus , and Aden. In that case the predicted probability of a loss by the British was .120, of a win, .880 and the British lost Aden. The reason: the British government announced that it would withdraw from "east of Suez" by a date certain. We quoted Julian Padgett's analysis in Last Port in Aden, "The announcement was a disastrous move from the point of view of the security forces, for it meant that from then onwards they inevitably lost all hope of any local support." Thus the rebels simply waited for the British to leave and then walked in and took over. My conclusion is that setting a date certain for withdrawal guarantees the enemy victory at little or no cost.(:
6 to 0 timetables are bad...
Ok, I see a lot of 'conflict' knowledge incapsulated in the contributors to this site and of the 6 who have replied to this thread question all 6 seem to agree that a scheduled, announced timeline for withdrawal is a bad idea. One that only encourages the opposition to hunker down and wait for the last helo to leave before uncorking hell. The history of such actions is clear. Why then do we persist with this foolish thought? I am not eliciting an answer here, the answer is simply Politics.
The question now asked is how, again historically, has the Politics of such a proposed action been countered? What can be done to rationally educate the decision makers, the legislators and the influencers as to the folly of a timeline?
Further, what is the alternative? Can set objectives be publicly laid down to achieve the same goal of withdrawal without jeapodizing the operation as a whole?
rationality and politics!?!
Hi Troufion,
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TROUFION
The question now asked is how, again historically, has the Politics of such a proposed action been countered? What can be done to rationally educate the decision makers, the legislators and the influencers as to the folly of a timeline?
Forget "rationally educating" politicians: hit them in their own terrain - "moral rectitude". For example,
The Democrats will succeed where Al-Quaida has failed - in bringing America to defeat. Indeed, the decision by General Nancy Pelosi to withdraw all American troops from Iraq has not only guaranteed the embarrassment of America in the global community but, at the same time, will inevitably lead to the deaths of millions of innocent Iraqi's.
General Pelosi's decision is, as we all have all heard ad nausium, based on her belief that the life of one American (voter) is worth an infinite number of Iraqi's. I am certain that every American is delighted to know that te enlightened Speaker of the House has, finally, defined her actual position on Human Rights; to whit, that every human has rights as long as they are American voters and she will be glad to let them know what they are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TROUFION
Further, what is the alternative? Can set objectives be publicly laid down to achieve the same goal of withdrawal without jeapodizing the operation as a whole?
Actually, they can be: Rome did it, Britain did it (the Boer War), Canada did it (the Second Riel Rebellion). It has to be defined by specific socio-political metrics and those have to be communicated to the home front.
Marc