US Internal Security Redux
In 2008, former KGB intelligence analyst Igor Panarin predicted the United States would collapse in 2010. As a 30 year veteran of the Russian intelligence service, he based his conclusions on three primary factors: mass migration, economic decline and moral degradation. Conducting this type of strategic analysis is not unique to the KGB and it is routinely performed by the US Intelligence Community on foreign governments. Thankfully that prediction has come and gone and fortunately the United States is still in existence.
Background link to Igor Panarin, note he is no trace on Amazon.com for his own books:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Panarin
Based on recent events around the world and within the United States, it may be the opportune time to revisit Pararin’s analysis and examine what the potential is for his predictions to actually come to fruition. There is no greater threat to US national security than the collapse of the constitutional form of government or some form of violent, revolutionary movement within the United States. As Dr. Jeffery Sachs of Columbia University noted:
Quote:
The U.S. is even more extreme [than London]. We have a more broken and serious underclass right now -we have a pressure cooker in the United States. It hasn't exploded that way, but it is a real pressure cooker.
Quote appears within a transcript:http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1.../fzgps.01.html
This is certainly not a pleasant topic to discuss but the impacts would be far more devastating than an early withdrawal from Afghanistan or a WMD attack on a major city.
As Cynthia Grabo points out in, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, a classic work for intelligence analysts involved in strategic analysis, the first step in conducting strategic analysis of this sort is to develop an indicator list of key factors that would signal the actions an adversary. For this problem there is not a clearly defined adversary so we must build a new conceptual framework. Current counterinsurgency doctrine may provide a useful starting point. The US environment should be examined on three broad factors: economic, governance and internal security. Much has been written recently about the first two factors so I will cover them briefly and provide more detail on the third factor.
Link:http://www.amazon.com/Anticipating-S...3808871&sr=1-1
Economic
The downgrade of US credit by Standard and Poor’s is most likely just the tip of the iceberg. As NY Times economist Paul Krugman recently pointed out, the economy was not as good as reported over the past two years and underemployment is a significant concern. He notes:
Quote:
Not only are vast numbers of Americans unemployed or underemployed, for the first time since the Great Depression many American workers are facing the prospect of very-long-term — maybe permanent — unemployment.
Appears within an article:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/op...g-worries.html
Large groups of underutilized males lend themselves to flash points of nefarious activity. This factor, along with an unsustainable national debt, stagnant GDP and increased international competition, paint a grim economic picture for the US in the years ahead.
Governance
The rationale for the S&P downgrade was actually not based on the future of the US economy; it was more of a statement on the poor state of our governance. Specifically S&P noted:
Quote:
The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.
Congress is often referred to as the “broken branch” and the current debate is whether this session of Congress is the most broken in our nation’s history. Public opinion polls seem to bear this fact out. Political infighting and a focus on reelection efforts seem to trump US national interests. Unfortunately under our two party system and without term limits, few options for realistic governance reform exists.
Internal Security
Emerging concepts of modern warfare: Unconventional Warfare, Hybrid Warfare, and 4GW each include criminal activity as a component of the theory. Does the hubris of the national security community assume these types of warfare cannot or will not be practiced on US soil? Perhaps even conducted by US citizens?
There are several functional areas that I would further develop into to an indicator list intended to warn national leadership of unfavorable conditions regarding US Internal Security:
• Civil Disturbances
• Illegal Immigration
• Transnational Organized Crime
• Radicalization
• US Criminal Justice System
Each of these issues poses a national security concern, yet because of their political sensitivities, they are often ignored by the national security community. Many feel because the US is a democracy these issues will simply resolve themselves through the democratic process. However I have seen no significant effort or political will to address these issues over the past several decades and each appears to get worse with time.
I pose the following questions to members of the council:
• Are these domestic issues national security concerns? (use whatever definition of national security you prefer)
• Will these issues eventually be resolved through the democratic process?
• If the economy continues on its current path, will social unrest/civil disturbance increase? Will they turn more violent?
• Could foreign influence make these domestic issue worse?
• What role does citizenship (not the legal process of becoming a citizen) play in National Security?
• Should the US reshape its national security investment strategy to better address these issues?
Others interested in this field of study should add their questions to the list.
19th and 20th Century United States
Hi Jack,
Building off of Bill Moore's comments, have you looked at 19th and 20th century concerns of internal revolution? The debates are fascinating. Sometimes, the facts were skewed to propaganda for political agendas. Sometimes, it was a bit of fear-mongering. Many times, it was simply the fear of change as the US became a melting pot, granted equal rights to everyone, and went through the Industrial Revolution.
Mike
If I may intrude a bit...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jack_Gander
Take for example, the issue of immigration. Will the political process resolve this by enacting national laws that will eliminate the problem of illegal immigration?
Unlikely. The 'problem' has always existed, it is merely larger than ever before because of worldwide population increases. The good news is that in many senses, we as a nation are larger than ever before...
Quote:
Have we ever had problems with increasing civil disturbances and illegal immigration and a broken criminal justice system and transnational threats and radicalization all in the context of failing governance and a sagging economy.
Yes and no, the concern of many on these issues is exacerbated by our superb present day communication capability, the potential that capability offers to produce copycat effects and the aforementioned population increase. Those factors tend to make prolems that have existed since the Republic was founded larger and more significant than they were before. Again, the good news is that we are larger and more capable (if no less clumsy :wry: ) than before.
Quote:
I would say citizenship, that is being a good citizen, and honoring the responsibilities(civic duties) that come with that title are very important...
Many would so say. Many others will shrug their shoulders. The nation has accommodated, has to and can continue to accommodate both types -- and several in-between...
Quote:
Isn’t citizenship the foundation of our COIN doctrine? During COIN aren’t we attempting to make the indigenous population better citizens of their nation, loyal to a “legitimate” government?
A very flawed doctrine thus a bad metaphor. :eek:
Quote:
Perhaps blaming politics is just an easy solution to actually addressing the issues.
Or perhaps politics offer the only solutions to the problems that worry you... ;)
The Dilemma of Rights and Duties
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jack_Gander
I would say citizenship, that is being a good citizen, and honoring the responsibilities(civic duties) that come with that title are very important. Just take a few civic duties – voting, honoring the laws of the land, paying just taxes , and serving in the military when needed, for example.
. . .
My point by posing this question is there are many people who inhabit the US but are not good citizens -just look at crime and voting statistics. What percentage of inhabitants within the physical borders of the US actually pay federal taxes? The growing disparity between citizens and inhabitants should be of concern. Although some recent
data indicate that community level citizenship is on the rise.
I think the notion of citizenship described above is fundamentally at odds with the basic view of humans used by Jefferson et. al as the basis to declare independence from the government of George III. American political theater is based on the notion that individual rights, not duties, are primary. From this perspective a corollary arises: any duties that we may have are derived from the rights which we have. For example, I have a duty not to harm you because you have a right to life.
But, as the excerpt from your post shows, folks also tend to have the belief that people have some fundamental responsibilities (aka duties). Such a perspective exacerbates the so-called "free rider" problem which is at the root of many concerns about, for example, illegal immigration and "the welfare state." The idea that one has to pay one's dues (perform one's civic duties) before receiving benefits is at odds with an idea that people are entitled (have a right) to certain things just because they are human beings.
In this regard, compare the views of Hobbes, Locke, and Rousseau on what life would be like in the "state of nature" (human existence without a government, or Leviathan).