The Ratio of Forces to Insurgents
I'm new to SWJ and plan to write an article on the Afghan war. I recall seeing an article several years ago that gave the ratio of "Forces" to insurgents to have reasonable chance of winning the war (14-1?). I believe it was in reference to lessons learned from the Vietnam war but it may well have been a study of a number of small wars. I scanned previous blogs and have so far only found the ratio of Forces to civilians. Also I believe the latest estimate of insurgents is 15,000.
Stats and sources would be much appreciated.
Cheers,
TJ in Ottawa
You are a master of understatement...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Schmedlap
In something as complicated as war, ratios like that are not very useful.
I'd go a step further and say they're borderline dangerous because either dumb soldiers or politicians (or both :eek: ) will glom onto them and almost certainly misuse them.
Every war is different. Just as the nations and their populations differ...
amen on the dangers of the easily measured.
I vote for the exercise being dangerous cause it produces media/politician friendly numbers.
e.g.
what kind of environment are you positing?
In Afghanistan COIN personnel walk around with translators in their 12 man force protection teams.
At the other end of the spectrum, you can be demand feeding supplies and intel to self-directed home-groin COIN efforts like they had with the Shining Path in Peru.
-peter