The rise of AQAP dissected
I am sure AQAP feature in a number of threads, but to my surprise it does not have its own thread.
The catalyst for my thoughts came from this excellent CNN article, by Paul Cruickshank; which opens:
Quote:
There may be a link between what sources tell CNN is evidence of final-stage planning for an attack against U.S and Western interests by al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen and the reported recent appointment of the affiliate's leader as the new general manager of the global al Qaeda network.
Seth Jones, a senior analyst at the Rand Corporation, told CNN's Barbara Starr on Friday that intelligence indicated that Nasir al Wuhayshi, the Yemeni leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), had recently been appointed into the role by al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri.
The appointment would effectively thrust Wuhayshi, a Yemeni national, into the No. 2 position in the global al Qaeda terrorist network, a position previously held by the Libyan Abu Yahya al Libi before his death in a drone strike in Pakistan in June 2012.
Link:http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/0...-chief-deputy/
Note revenge for losses, invariably caused by drone strikes, plays a large role.
ICSR predicted this role a year ago:http://icsr.info/2012/05/icsr-insigh...ous-franchise/
The "old guard" -v- "new bombs in new bottles"
Excellent analysis by Clint Watts on FPRI:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...sm-competition
Curious that he concludes an internal power struggle is partly responsible:
Quote:
In conclusion, Zawahiri’s plotting of a spectacular attack and nomination of Wuyashi may be the result of internal forces--competition with AQ in Iraq-–more than external forces. Zawahiri needs a big attack to reassert his authority and curb the growth of a rival. AQ in Iraq’s growth and Baghdadi’s rebuttal may have pushed Zawahiri to rush an attack and in the process led to its detection. I'm guessing that only time will tell. Overall, Zawahiri and “Old Guard” al-Qaeda may be returning their focus to global attacks or attacks on Westerners, say in Egypt, to regain momentum and increase their appeal to a new generation of recruits and donors. If Zawahiri doesn’t act soon, the global jihad will pass him by.
From a different perspective RUSI's Raffaello Pantucci adds:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UgCcUdLvvfI
The correct strategy and AQAP grows?
Within the media furore over a potential attack are many questions, within this NYT piece on the situation in the Yemen Gregory Johnsen rightly asks:
Quote:
If the Obama administration is confident that its strategy in Yemen is correct, then why is Al Qaeda growing in Yemen and why is the group still capable of forcing the United States to shut down embassies in more than a dozen countries?
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/wo...pagewanted=all