Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)
The Iran: Open Thread Until H-Hour thread has become so long and rambling, I am going to use the excuse of release and debate over the new NIE to close that thread and open a new one, using the NIE as the start point for new discussion on the potential Iranian nuclear threat:
DNI, 3 Dec 07: Iran: Nuclear Prospects and Capabilities
Since its release, there has been a tremendous amount of analysis and debate over its content. Some of it is linked below:
ISN Security Watch, 7 Dec 07: Iran Report's Impact Overstated
CNS-MIIS, 6 Dec 07: Iranian Nuclear Program Remains Major Threat Despite Partial Freeze of Weapons-Relevant Activities Described in New U.S. NIE
CSIS, 6 Dec 07: Understanding the Key Judgments in the New NIE on Iranian Nuclear Weapons and 4 Dec 07: Critical Questions: Iran and the New NIE
CEIP, 4 Dec 07: Assessing the NIE
WINEP, 4 Dec 07: How Much Does Weaponization Matter? Judging Iran's Nuclear Program
Been "Watching" to see the spin-offs...
...of the 2007 NIE. Just a few minor "pol" observations.
First (from a pol standpoint), this isn't a "game changer" as much as it is a "playing field changer". It was sort of like trying to play soccer on an ice hockey rink, and now that's been changed to a basketball court. But, now it's not a major priority like it was before, so nobody wants to really play PERIOD.
Second, it's been an early Christmas present for all the political "Body and Fender" shops out there. The 2007 NIE conclusions weren't expected, so all the political punditry had to scramble around and had to acquire all the "expertise" they could get on the QT. Nice little unexpected bonus there, some people made out really well. The spin resulting from all of this has run the full spectrum, with some of it being nothing short of spectacular (from a "spin appreciation" standpoint).
Third, most of the major political candidates are silently counting their blessings. Took an item off the boards that nobody had a really good answer on, and nobody wanted to really run with.
Conclusions (political) I'm hearing: Iran is no longer a front burner International issue, for the domestic political front. And from the looks of it, the pols like it that way.
Thoughts?