The Evolving Terrorist Threat in Southeast Asia
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 25 Jun 08:
Neighbourhood Watch: The Evolving Terrorist Threat in Southeast Asia
Quote:
....Nearly six years after the first Bali bombings, it is time to take stock of the regional security environment and to ask how the Southeast Asian terrorist threat might evolve in the future.
Neighbourhood Watch analyses the changing nature of religious militancy in Southeast Asia and sets out a framework for understanding the forces and trends that are driving jihadist extremism in the region. It provides a comprehensive examination of the organisational and operational capabilities of the major terrorist groups including JI, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Abu Sayyaf Group in Mindanaoand the various groups associated with the current manifestation of Malay Muslim separatist violence in southern Thailand. In each case, the nature and extent of pan-regional networks and connections are examined.....
Conflict, Community, and Criminality in Southeast Asia and Australia
CSIS, 30 Jun 09: Conflict, Community, and Criminality in Southeast Asia and Australia: Assessments From the Field
A collection of essays with a foreword by Marc Sageman.
Quote:
....In Southeast Asia, as in the rest of the world, it would be naïve to believe that terrorism can be defeated. It is and will remain a tactic of the weak against their government, and Southeast Asia has seen its share throughout modern history. However, the appeal of Islam is fading in some theaters but gaining strength in a few others due to local reasons. In the future, terrorism in Southeast Asia may still be waged in the name of new concepts. The key to holding it in check is to not overreact, punish only the criminals directly involved in violence, and encourage young people that might be attracted to violent ideology to pursue their political activism in a more effective and lawful way.
Essays include:
- Radical Islam in the Middle East and Southeast Asia: A Comparison
- The Middle East, Islamism, and Indonesia: Pull versus Push Factors
- Jemaah Islamiyah and New Splinter Groups
- Can Indonesian Democracy Tame Radical Islamism?
- The Role of Radical Madrasahs in Terrorism: The Indonesian Case
- Communal Violence in Indonesia and the Role of Foreign and Domestic Networks
- Radical Islam in Malaysia
- Governmental Responses to Extremism in Southeast Asia: “Hard” versus “Soft” Approaches
- The Malayu Insurgency in Thailand’s Southern Border Provinces
- “A Carnival of Crime”: The Enigma of the Abu Sayyaf
- Will the Conflict in Mindanao Look Like the Insurgency in Southern Thailand?
- Little-known Muslim Communities and Concerns in Cambodia, Burma, and Northern Thailand
- Assessment of Criminal Threats Emanating from Burma
- The Extremist Threat in Australia
- Muslim Alienation in Australia: Europe Down Under?
- Jihadi Ideology: An Overview
Indonesia: Suspects planned attack on U.S. Embassy
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-...n-u.s-embassy/
Quote:
He said the suspects belonged to a new group called the Harakah Sunni for Indonesian Society, or HASMI.
"From evidence found at the scene, we believe that this group was well prepared for serious terror attacks," Alius said.
Sticking with the theme of trends, what we seem to be seeing in Indonesia is the result of effective security operations that forces an enduring threat to continuously morph into new terrorist cells and organizations. Defeat of the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism is no where in sight. The terrorists like most adversaries have a political objective that won't be countered by population centric operations that focus on economic development and the rule of law. It may be we just have to accept this as the new norm until their is (if there is) an evolution in their underlying ideology and political goals. I think that means our security forces (the US and all its partners) need to focus our main effort on intelligence and disruption from a security aspect. Individual governments will have to wage the political competition within in their own borders.
Quote:
Last month, police arrested 10 Islamist militants and seized a dozen homemade bombs from a group suspected of planning suicide attacks against security forces and plotting to blow up the Parliament building. The alleged bomb maker turned himself in to police while wearing an empty suicide vest.
Recent terror attacks in the country have been carried out by individuals or small groups and have targeted security forces and local "infidels" instead of Westerners, with less deadly results. The arrests announced Saturday appear to be the first in recent years to involve a group that allegedly planned to target foreign facilities.
Different groups experimenting with different approaches to achieve a common political objective.
Perceptions of ISIS in the Philippines
http://www.eurasiareview.com/1007201...link-analysis/
A New ‘Caliphate’ In Middle East: Is There An Abu Sayyaf-ISIS Link? – Analysis
Quote:
A video of a purported member of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) pledging support to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) surfaced recently. With an apparent spike in ASG-related activities, this is interpreted as evidence of convergence between the groups. However, the localised factors that motivate ASG factions should not be ignored.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCOA97_o1nU
I agree with their analytical conclusion for ASG. They're little more than thugs masquerading as jihadists.
Quote:
The ASG remains a localised movement. Its subscription to the jihadist narrative is passive and superficial. It has yet to make its mark in the online world and would unlikely do so in the near future. Thus, state responses should always be aware of and be cautious of quickly ascribing ideological motivations to what essentially are socio-economic issues. The Philippines’s social and economic milieu creates distinct dynamics that may be wholly different even from close neighbours like Indonesia or Malaysia.
On the other hand, the ASG isn't representative of the larger Muslim community in the Philippines. The potential for recruitment certainly exists, as already demonstrated in Indonesia.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...danao-possible
MNLF official: ISIS recruitment in Mindanao possible
Quote:
MILF said the threat is not in the two groups joining the ISIS because their number is “too tiny to be felt and make a difference.”
“The ISIS is overflowing with volunteers from all over the world, including those from the United States, United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia,” it said.
“The threat really comes from the extremism espoused by the ISIS. Ideas are contagious and infectious. Wild ideas are attractive to those who want adventures and pre-occupied with hatred and revenge.”
MILF leaders went on to say that the Gov of the Philippines needs to deal with ASG and BIFF to avoid the potential of these groups joining ISIS. True, and since both of these groups are criminal-terrorists in character it would be better for the region, and for MILF it would help clear a path to consolidating political power in Mindanao. A potential win-win for most.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/intern...ria-for-israel
On a side note Philippine peace keeping forces, unintentionally on their part, are now in a fire fight was al-Nusra rebels in the Golan Heights. The good news is they refused to lay down their arms and opted to defend their positions as authorized in their mandate. I believe some have now withdrawn into Syria, since peacekeeping is apparently out the window now since Syria no longer effectively controls that region. Is al-Qaeda preparing to attack Israel to gain more support from the broader Muslim community?