Pakistan Predictions 2012
I wrote this for 3quarksdaily: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...2012.html#more
The final paragraph: The long term future of Pakistan is “Indianization”. Not in the sense of “Indian cultural invasion” or “Indian hegemony”, but in the simple literal sense of “becoming more like India”. Obviously not exactly like India, but close enough for government work; a corruption-ridden, imperfect third world democracy with an expanding capitalist economy and many internal divisions and stresses and the additional burden of Islamic fantasizing. And I think there is little chance of developing a unique indigenous socialist/islamist/vegetarian short-cut past all these problems, much to the dismay of the Arundhati Roys and Tariq Alis, not to speak of Hindutvadis and Islamists. Pakistan will not show the world some new path to the future. It will be a “normal” South Asian country, trying to stabilize a democratic model derived from British Indian roots while working out a modus vivendi between its ancient cultures, its “Islamic” ideals and the modern world. The economy has now become too large for even the narrow elite to be dominated by imperial mercenary duties or scams related to the same. In that sense, things will be a little better. It’s not a perfect outcome, but we do not live in a perfect world.
Are we wrong about Pakistan?
Peter Oborne, a columnist for the Daily Telegraph, answers this question with what is a 'travel' column after his visits and TV documentaries, which I have linked before and so one passage is cited:
Quote:
Many write of how dangerous Pakistan has become. More remarkable, by far, is how safe it remains, thanks to the strength and good humour of its people. The image of the average Pakistani citizen as a religious fanatic or a terrorist is simply a libel, the result of ignorance and prejudice.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/de...-Pakistan.html
I accept the vast majority of Pakistanis want a better world - near home - and we invariably only get lurid media reporting, with chanting crowds etc. The snag with Peter's argument is that the Pakistani state is quite different, with several factions capable of mayhem and one institution capable of miscalculation. That is why many fear for the future.