Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution
ICG, 22 Feb 07: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution
Quote:
...Three scenarios could trouble Chávez. The likeliest, at least in the next few years, is that problems will arise if oil prices drop to a point where the president can neither sustain current social spending, nor paper over the economic distortions produced by exchange rate and price controls, inflation and increasing dependence on imports....
...A second possibility is political recovery of the opposition to the point where it could take control of the National Assembly and provide a serious alternative. This is a distant prospect, since further splintering of the opposition has become apparent, but, in the event, the president might choose to use the considerable array of non-democratic tools he has amassed over the last eight years, and diehard Chavistas might be prepared to resort to violence to defend the regime....
...A third scenario involves a challenge to Chávez from within his movement. There are some fissures and tensions over where the president is taking the country, and at some point it is conceivable that elements within the administration might challenge Chávez´s handling of power....
...There is also the question as to what kind of country any non-Bolivarian president would inherit. If current trends continue, an opposition president would face a partisan military, the ultimate arbiter of power, with limited means by which to control it....
...As in Colombia and Mexico, there is an additional danger of crime, particularly drugs, creating a destabilising dynamic, corrupting institutions on a scale that causes the public to lose what little faith remains in the police and judiciary. Corruption of the armed forces, already evident, could also undermine security. More dangerous still would be a transformation of the armed, irregular Chavista groups into criminal mafias....
...Violent internal conflict is only potential in these scenarios and situations, not inevitable, but if President Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy as he has for eight years, the risks are considerable.
Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark
29 May LA Times - Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark by Chris Kraul.
Quote:
Venezuelan folk music, a Cuban documentary and heavy doses of government propaganda glorifying "21st century socialism" highlighted the first day of a new television channel that on Monday took over airspace of this nation's oldest and most popular station, a frequent critic of leftist President Hugo Chavez.
At midnight Sunday, Radio Caracas Television, or RCTV, went dark for the first time in 53 years after the Chavez government refused to renew its broadcast license, alleging violations of telecommunications law. That decision, announced in December, has been slammed by international press freedom groups, several governments and even some Chavez supporters.
Protests that began Sunday night around the national telecommunications regulatory commission's office continued into the morning at several universities in the Caracas area...
Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez
SSI, 24 Aug 07: Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez
Quote:
In 2005, Dr. Max Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. The rhetoric continues. Moreover, President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about.
Thus, Dr. Manwaring’s intent in this new monograph is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America....
"This could be the start of a war in South America,"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia
Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.
I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...
-T
